Unz评论•另类媒体选择
美国主流媒体大都排除了有趣,重要和有争议的观点
 玩笑俄罗斯反应博客
进步的ARCS – 2050年的北极世界
通过电子邮件将此页面发送给其他人

 记住我的信息



=>

书签 全部切换总目录添加到图书馆从图书馆中删除 • B显示评论下一个新评论下一个新回复了解更多
回复同意/不同意/等等 更多... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
同意不同意谢谢LOL轮唱
这些按钮可将您的公开协议,异议,感谢,LOL或巨魔与所选注释一起注册。 仅对最近使用“记住我的信息”复选框保存姓名和电子邮件的频繁评论者可用,并且在任何八个小时的时间内也只能使用三次。
忽略评论者 关注评论者
搜寻文字全部打开 区分大小写  确切的词  包括评论
列表 书签

编者按:本文于2011年XNUMX月在Arctic Progress上首次发表。在接下来的几周里,我将重新发布其中的最佳材料。

北极将成为全球经济增长的极点吗? 图片信用– 风景名胜.

看哪! 沿着北极海岸的最北端,一堆涌现的定居点在海岸边缘。 小船在罐头工厂周围蜂拥而至,冶炼厂上方扑腾着烟雾,大草原上点缀着驯鹿群……在这里或那里,在每条街角上,都闪烁着剧院的灯光,在这里,动画影像在仲冬的阳光普照的一周中为白人带来了欢乐时,歌唱时,爱斯基摩人的欢笑时光。

–向北ho !:对遥远的北方及其人民的描述。

2003年,高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)撰写了如今著名的论文 与金砖四国做梦他预测,巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国将在几十年内赶超八国集团国家,并为忠实的投资者带来惊人的回报。 金砖四国的概念进入了传统观念,产生了许多相关的首字母缩写词(基本, 金砖四国,等等)–如果有的话,提前实现其承诺。 去年,中国的实际GDP 可能超过 美国和俄罗斯 走近 德国的。

然而,尽管金砖四国取得了所有成功,但它们未必能履行其作为21世纪全球经济之星的预期角色。 教育水平是 恐怖的 在巴西和 穷凶极恶 在印度; 如果没有必要的人力资本,这两个国家将很难迅速“收敛”到发达的世界标准。 中国是 好多了 在这方面,但其高增长轨迹反过来可能会因能源短缺和环境恶化而受到干扰。 中国的煤炭产量占世界的一半,鉴于其有限的储量,这显然是不可持续的。 但是,由于煤炭占中国一次能源消费的75%,并且为保持其就业岗位的工厂提供燃料,因此,它无济于事以减轻这种依赖。 同时,众所周知,中国的人口过多,污染和气候变化困境不需赘述。 其他许多在金砖四国边缘徘徊的国家-印度尼西亚,南非,越南等-面临严重挑战,包括人力资本低,能源和粮食供应不确定以及AGW引发的干旱,洪水和热浪的发生率上升。

有一个全球区域可能是解决这些相互交织的问题的关键,甚至有可能成为其自身成为全球增长的主要极地的关键。 在很大程度上,这里现在是一片空旷的荒野,但气候变化正在将其开放为潜在的生活空间。 它的开发有潜力使全球货物运输路线的长度减少一半,同时提高其安全性,发现大量的巨大的碳氢化合物和矿物新来源,并通过扩大耕地面积来稳定全球粮食价格。 它在管理和解决冲突方面的经验可能会激发一种全球合作模式,或者可能演变成在航运路线和海底资源上的经济,法律,甚至军事战场。

这个全球区域是北极圈及其毗邻的ARCS:阿拉斯加,俄罗斯,加拿大和斯堪的纳维亚半岛。 21世纪的进步ARCS.



北极海冰范围已于1年2010月XNUMX日开放-北海航线和西北通道均已开放。 图片信用– 今日伊利诺伊大学低温层.

从北极到增长极

北极圈前景光明的根本原因是全球宏观趋势:气候变化; 石油和资源民族主义高峰; 南方人口过剩。 这些“推动”和“拉动”因素将引发长达数十年的北极热潮,首先是航运,能源和采矿,最后是世界经济中心向北的根本转移。 让我们依次检查每个。

破冰运输

啊,只有一次,我会乘坐西北航道
寻找富兰克林的手伸向波弗特海
在一片如此野蛮野蛮的土地上追踪一条温暖的线
并开辟一条通往大海的西北通道。

–西北段落歌曲,斯坦·罗杰斯(Stan Rogers),1981年。

通常,冰冻圈(世界上最冰冷的部分)保持稳定,因为冰雪反射了太阳的大部分热量,从而冷却了自身。 这个过程称为冰-反照率反馈。

但是,当高反照率的冰融化时,它会留下深色的土地,植物或海洋,吸收更多的热量。 在寒冷季节,当地的气温飙升并抑制了冰的再形成。 从工作以保持系统稳定到超出临界阈值,冰-反照率反馈开始增强融化和变暖的失控动力。

冰反照率的反馈在很大程度上解释了为什么北极变暖的速度是整个世界的两倍。

2007年夏季,北极海冰范围 下降 自记录开始以来,平均水平降低了38%,面积相当于六个加利福尼亚州的面积。 次年夏末,西北通道和北海航线在短时间内都没有结冰。 截至2010年2007月,海冰面积是有记录以来最低的一个月,甚至超过了XNUMX年的融雪量。

在过去的三十年中,海冰持续下降的幅度已经足够了,但令人惊奇的是 55%的下降 在夏天海冰 体积。 一旦多年的厚冰消失了,那就真的消失了。海水的低反照率将升高局部温度,从而阻止了除薄薄的海冰外在寒冷的冬天里重新形成的冰。 因此,几乎可以肯定的是,北极海冰已经深陷其死亡螺旋。

在内陆,较早的融雪使地面吸收更多的热量,而深色灌木和北方森林则侵蚀苔原。

许多影响将是负面的。 北极熊可能会灭绝,要么因缺乏海冰而溺水,要么饿死,或者向南迁移并与它们的灰熊表亲融合。 来自南方的入侵物种将把北极的动植物群赶出世界之巅。 随着北极和热带之间的温差缩小,全球洋流和气流将被中断。

但是新的北极商人将成为杀手。

北极无冰夏季的运输路线 。 图片信用– 劳伦斯·史密斯.

在2010, 波罗 成为 第一艘载有石油产品的高吨位油轮,沿北海航线航行,从摩尔曼斯克运往中国。 随后是航行 MV北欧巴伦支中, 第一艘船 可以通过北极从一个非俄罗斯港口航行到另一个港口,与传统的苏伊士航线相距5,000公里。 它从挪威基尔肯内斯运来了41,000吨铁矿石,供往中国的钢厂。 所有人都感到高兴,这一年以没有北冰洋航线协助的第一次来回航行而告终。 诺里尔斯克镍制拥有的船 蒙切哥尔斯克 携带金属 从西伯利亚北部杜丁卡港到上海, 仅蒸41天 (苏伊士路线将持续长达四个月)。

北海航线的开放以及中国和其他新兴市场对金属和石油产品的需求不断增长,将继续刺激北极航运的发展。 2011年XNUMX月,Sovcomflot一位高管表示,俄罗斯船运公司 已经收到 今年,北极地区有15项破冰船援助请求,而2010年仅为XNUMX项*。 摩尔曼斯克州长德米特里·德米特里延科(Dmitry Dmitriyenko)预测,通过北海航线的货物运输 将增加 到2020年,这一增长将达到XNUMX倍。这种增长将通过私人投资资金来维持:Sovcomflot和摩尔曼斯克港都将在未来几年内部分私有化。

随着加拿大西北通道的开放,类似的趋势也在发挥作用。 它在2006年被游轮和商业船所征服 MV CamillaDesgagnés 2008年。由于需求减少和加拿大破冰船队的(相对)欠发达,对西北航道的开发可能会比其北欧亚大陆的开发慢。 但是那里仍然有很多机会。

在世界之巅是黑金还是傻瓜金?

使用或失去它是北极主权的第一原则。

–加拿大总理斯蒂芬·哈珀(Stephen Harper)致辞,2007年。

我们的首要任务是将北极地区变成21世纪俄罗斯的资源基地。

–俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫(Medvedev)在2008年XNUMX月的讲话。

全球石油生产现在已经达到顶峰或接近顶峰,现在将继续处于目前的“起伏高原” –或 开始以加速的速度下降。 有关细节的争论非常激烈, 辩论范围太广 在这里详细说明。 但是足以说的是,“技术创新和市场力量将永远在有限的星球上变出越来越多的资源”这一“角子”立场是站不住脚的。

任何因素-自1980年代中期以来全球产量超过新发现; 尽管商品价格飙升,世界仍无法大幅提高石油产量; 下降导致石油生产成本上升 爱罗 其余的石油来源; 欧佩克成员国的储量大幅膨胀; 日益增长的资源民族主义–阻碍了石油工业增产的常规发展。

这些日益严峻的挑战是大型石油巨头正在推进在墨西哥湾造成Horizo​​n井喷的深水钻井的原因,以及 合作与 俄罗斯国有石油公司将在卡拉海开发海上天然气矿藏,并在 探矿 格陵兰尽管迄今没有任何回报。 他们需要保持自己的储备数量,以防止库存积压。但是,这样做的话,石油巨头被迫承担不断升级的财务,环境和政治风险。

北极的自然资源。 图片信用– 全球研究.

2008年,美国地质调查局(US Geological Survey)估计,北极 可能容纳多达 全球未发现的石油(13亿桶)的90%和其未发现的天然气的30%。 毫不奇怪,北极正迅速成为石油勘探的中心。 也就是说,要利用这些资源(即使假设它们的大小与上述估算的一样大),将异常困难。 首先,这些来源中约有84%可能在海上。 其次,根据最近的USGS计算,对其进行开发 将非常昂贵: “Assuming production costs of up to $100 per barrel, only 2.5 billion barrels of oil could be lifted… and only with a 50% probability.” For perspective, an average oil price of $92 per barrel broke the world economy in 2008.

谈论北极成为下一个沙特阿拉伯是不现实的。 它的石油储量更小,更分散,更偏远,质量更差并且开采更具挑战性。 但这并不是说它的黑金是傻瓜的金。 北极钻探的技术进步以及其他地方缺乏更好的选择,将吸引西方石油巨头和国家石油公司。

北极不仅对托运人和石油工人感兴趣。 面对中国需求的强劲增长,全球采矿业正竭尽全力增加金属和矿产的生产能力。 仅举几个北极的例子,就有计划开始或扩大加拿大的铁矿石生产。 巴芬岛,挪威的 希尔科内斯 和科拉半岛。 煤炭生产 正在恢复 在斯瓦尔巴特群岛。 以防万一整个石油问题无法解决,格陵兰岛正在寻求开发其潜在的巨大矿产资源。 Coeur d`Alene矿业公司最近提前在阿拉斯加朱诺附近开设了一座金矿。 尽管体积仍然很小,但随着消耗量的增加,这种情况将会改变 变得明显 用于矿物,就像现在用于石油一样。

迈向北极文明?

……在本世纪之前,我们将有数十亿人丧生,而少数存活下来的繁殖对将在北极地区,那里的气候仍然可以忍受。

詹姆斯·拉夫洛克,盖亚假说的发明者。

从航运和能源行业开始,北极的影响力最终将覆盖整个世界。 假设快速减少温室气体排放的努力没有成功,或者没有尝试或没有进行地球工程,那么许多中部地区将变得太热,太干燥,无法持续农业(也许人类生存),大量的气候难民将尝试向北迁移。 全球经济增长,政治以及也许在不久的将来人口的中心将落入北极圈之内。

北极可能成为世界的空间中心。 图片来源– 特劳斯蒂·瓦尔森.

这一过程可能伴随着大规模的动荡,社会崩溃,饥荒,边界冲突,甚至可能是更大的战争。 但是像往常一样,苦难蕴含着机会的种子。 现在,有远见的人正在购买哈德逊湾地区或西伯利亚河滨土地,这并非不可能,是在2200年将他们自己或他们的继承人定位为领主和王国。

But let’s focus on just the next three decades. The opening of the Arctic by various “push” factors (overpopulation, global warming) and “pull” factors (shipping routes, resources) will create demand for infrastructure, housing, associated services, etc. Buying up strategic lands, routes and infrastructure in the Arctic region offers one of the best, and most overlooked, rates of return in the world today. Take inspiration from OmniTRAX, a Colorado-based company that bought the derelict Port of Churchill and its railway from the Manitoba government for a bargain basement price of $10 in 1998. Now that Hudson Bay has become clear of sea ice during the summer, these assets 正在接收 来自加拿大政府的数千万美元投资。

您如何从中受益 即将到来的北极热潮? 在未来几年中,俄罗斯将部分私有化有利可图的国有资产,例如运输公司Sovcomflot和摩尔曼斯克港(处理北海航线60%的运输)。 新港口,公路,铁路,管道,矿山,水坝,油气田, 铝冶炼厂,液化天然气工厂等在整个地区如雨后春笋般冒出来。

进入进步的ARCS:为什么阿拉斯加,俄罗斯,加拿大和斯堪的那维亚半岛有能力统治以极地为中心的世界

ИдутнаСеверсрокаогромные,
Когониспросишь–увсехуказ…
Взгляни,взгляни
Вглазамоисуровые,
Взгляни,бытьможет,впоследнийраз。

–苏联古拉格 歌曲1947。

加拿大!

我们的家园和祖国!
在您儿子的一切命令中,真正的爱国者之爱。
带着发光的心,我们看到你升起,
真正的北方强大而自由!

–加拿大国歌。

这些天看经济新闻是走向萧条的必经之路。 在发达世界中,您似乎看到的任何地方都会出现预算赤字,债务飙升,产出低迷和停滞不前。 我们已经确定,将钱存入PIGS(葡萄牙,意大利,希腊,西班牙)并不是一个好主意。 但是美国是“避风港”,对吗? 不幸的是,其财政可持续性指标 实际上更糟 than the PIGS average. In 2009, the US got $0.6 in tax revenue for every $1 of outlays, or a receipt-to-outlay ratio of 0.6; the equivalent ratio for the PIGS was 0.78. Maybe Japan? With a 0.52 receipt-to-outlay ratio, it 使 美国看起来就像是财政纪律的典范。

但是在所有混乱之中,有一些闪闪发光的宝石。 它们不仅是北极开放的中心,而且凭借自身的优势,它们都是极好的投资目的地。 它们是ARCS国家:阿拉斯加,俄罗斯,加拿大和斯堪的那维亚。

阿拉斯加州

与美国其他地区相比,阿拉斯加 几乎没有凹痕 by the economic crisis, its GDP declining by just 0.3% in 2009 and recovering 0.6% in 2010. Employment is lower than the US average. While states like California and Illinois flirt with state bankruptcy, Alaska has accumulated $40 billion in its 常设基金。 最后,它是格陵兰岛上人口最多的州,与格陵兰一起,在2.32年的平均生育率是每名妇女2006个孩子。第一世界迫在眉睫的老龄化危机很快将不会受到影响。 阿拉斯加已准备好履行其座右铭:“未来的北方!”

俄罗斯

尽管是ARCS中最贫穷的国家,但俄罗斯还是增长最快的国家,在5年至2001年期间的GDP年均增长率为2010%。 它的 高水平的人力资本 (大约70%的俄罗斯人继续接受高等教育,达到第一世界的水平),丰富的资源财富和体面的生活 宏观经济管理 设置在 一条有希望的融合之路 与发达国家。

此外,俄罗斯在北极地区拥有重要的人口,经济和军事力量。 摩尔曼斯克地区本身拥有的人口超过阿拉斯加所有地区,而俄罗斯北方舰队则是迄今为止最强大的北极力量。 国家政策 是要改造北极 在未来十年内成为俄罗斯的“战略资源基地”。

对俄罗斯前景的批评通常集中在对“扎伊尔冻土带”这样的腐败水平,人口暴跌,基础设施崩溃,“法律虚无主义”和普京主义的专制主义的指责上。 尽管每一个都有一个真理,但将它们当作福音从根本上歪曲了这个国家。 首先,如果俄罗斯真的比尼日利亚或津巴布韦更腐败-透明国际(Transparency International)的暗示 清廉指数 – then it would still be deep in debt as in the late 1990′s, and its $480 billion foreign currency reserves would be in Cayman Islands accounts instead of the Central Bank’s vaults.

俄罗斯的人口“死亡螺旋”怎么样? 快速浏览一下Rosstat,就会发现该国的人口在2009年有所增长,其总生育率(每名妇女育有1.6个孩子)现在高于欧洲平均水平。

人们可以一页一页地花费时间来阐明西方媒体和政治阶层用来攻击俄罗斯的双重标准,虚假陈述和彻头彻尾的谎言。 但是,如果您不服从,并且原则上拒绝进入俄罗斯被低估的市场,那将是您的损失。

作为俄罗斯专业投资人埃里克·克劳斯(Eric Kraus) 中写道 “商业周刊” 在2010年2008月,“俄罗斯市场是时尚的受害者,目前既不时髦,又便宜。 您可以立即拥有它们,或者等下次它们重新流行时,再购买。 我将在那时卖光。” 我相信他-那正是他在XNUMX年所做的!

加拿大

加拿大将美国的自由企业精神与更大的安全网和更大的社会流动性相结合。 它的财政基础也要好得多。 2010年,经周期性调整的一次预算赤字占GDP的-2.7%(美国:-7.0%),其净债务占GDP的32.7%(美国:65.2%;日本:104.6%)。 它拥有巨大的能源,矿产和淡水储备,以及受过良好教育的人口和不断增长的人口,这无疑是发达世界中较好的投资选择之一。

斯堪的纳维亚(和北欧)

北欧地区是地球上最富裕,教育程度最高且具有社会凝聚力的地区之一,在自由度,社会流动性,环境可持续性和技术现代性的任何全球指标中,其排名通常都位于或接近最高峰。

2010年,瑞典的GDP 增长最快 欧洲的增长率高达5.2%,同时在整个危机期间保持了平衡的预算。 挪威的命运与石油行业息息相关,但石油高峰,国家出色的储量管理和人口稀少的前景广阔。 挪威是仅次于卢森堡银行中心的第二大欧洲国家。

即使像冰岛这样明显的篮子,也可能是购买便宜货的好投资。 尽管其国际银行事业可能已经结束,但它仍然拥有大量的淡水和地热能储备,这使其成为铝冶炼厂等高能耗行业的有吸引力的中心。

最后,与右翼描绘民主政体的养老院一样,这些养老院里充斥着衰老的自由主义者,而所有北欧国家的生育率都排除了主要的老龄化危机(他们的范围从芬兰的每名妇女1.8个孩子到格陵兰的2.2个孩子)。

当所有冰融化时进入北极。

从终极的昏暗之声…

沿着一条晦涩而寂寞的路线,
只被恶魔的天使困扰,
一个叫夜的鬼魂
在黑色宝座上直立,
我到达了这些土地,但是最近
来自终极昏暗的Thule-
从狂野怪异的犯罪集团中,那谎言,崇高,
空间不足-时间不足。

–埃德加·艾伦·坡(Edgar Allen Poe)的《梦境》。

即使在我们今天,科学界也怀疑极地以外的北极极地圈是否存在从未冻结的海洋以及永远是绿色的大洲。

–神秘的HP Blavatsky。

在世界经济兴起之前,空间观点是局部的,最多扩展到其文化领域或世界帝国的边界。 达尔·伊斯兰教(Dar al-Islam)供穆斯林使用; 法兰克人的基督教世界; 中国人的长城。 中世纪的欧洲地理学家将已知世界之外的任何土地都称为Ultima Thule。

19世纪的全球化历史上第一次将整个世界联系在一起,但它的流动,劳力,资本和商品的联系却绕过了北极。 育空淘金热突然爆发,突然消失,对持续的私人投资没有吸引力,该地区的发展总是合适且不平衡的。 到苏联北部的刑事营地,受资助的定居点和军事基地,如今已逐渐消失,除非碳氢化合物开采使他们成为了生命线。

但是现在世界正在改变。 与苏联计划者的乐观主义眼光一样,开放北极不再是一项繁琐的项目。 或昂贵且无利可图的战略必要性,例如在北极海冰下进行的冷战潜艇巡逻或在其上方进行轰炸机飞行。 今天,正是全球宏观趋势,例如全球变暖,资源枯竭和人口过剩,将确保北极地区快速而有机的发展。

随着人类的存在,北极将不可避免地开始失去其神秘主义,预感和黑暗的光泽。 随着岁月的流逝,以及2050年的来临,以极地为中心的世界观将日益成为人类空间意识的中心。 世界的贸易,能源和资本流动将大体上向北方转移。

进步的ARCS,受气候难民影响的人数激增,以及因大量资本投资而获得支持的经济, 将跻身世界领先大国之列。 假定他们保留了目前的政治格局。 例如,今天只有56,000人的独立格陵兰岛能否保留自己的民族身份? 面对南方的资源短缺和干旱,中国会侵占俄罗斯远东地区吗? 美国会尝试同化加拿大吗?

无论这些问题的答案是什么,都几乎可以肯定。 北部的《创世纪》的愿景正在消散,并将很快完全消散(这个想法可能会被复活,以描述一个荒凉,无法居住的南方数百年,直至一个极端的AGW未来)。 到2050年,它将取代海洋,农场和成长中的城市,形成一个极地世界经济体系。

将会出现北极的乌龙骨.

*根据最近的数据, 有34个过境 在2011年的北海航线上 从4开始 在2010年; 与820,000年的111,000万吨相比,运输了2010万吨。预计今年的货运量将再翻一番。 这与 破冰记录

编辑28年2013月XNUMX日:打破了纪录 46艘船 今年通过NSR进行中转。

(从重新发布 阿卡林网 经作者或代表的许可)
 
隐藏18条评论发表评论
忽略评论者...跟随Endorsed Only
修剪评论?
  1. Sounds interesting but the key is keeping out third world refugees/immigrants.

    • 回复: @Anatoly Karlin
    @克里斯

    I don't think that will be peaceful. The ARCS I expect will become something resembling caste societies by the 22nd century.

  2. First Chinese ship makes trip to Atlantic via Arctic route
    AFP Aug 17, 2012, 05.29PM IST

    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-08-17/news/33249671_1_northern-sea-route-ship-arctic

    REYKJAVIK: The first Chinese ship has travelled from the Pacific to Atlantic via the Arctic along the Russian coast, an Icelandic scientist who participated on the expedition said Friday.

    The Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, docked in Iceland after having sailed the so-called Northern Sea Route from the Pacific, Egill Thor Nielsson told AFP.

    “This is the first Chinese ship to sail this route and of course it is important because it’s a more than 40 percent shorter route to Europe,” he said.

    The Chinese are even more interested in this route after having found the passage relatively easy.

    “It took almost ten days to sail from the East Siberian Sea and through the Barents Sea, and during that time there was real pack ice for only seven days,” he said.

    Climate change is opening the prospect of commercial shipping via the Northern Sea Route or the Northwest Passage north of Canada.

    More and more ships are travelling via the Northern Sea Route. Four made the passage in 2010, 34 last year and the figure will be higher this year, said Nielsson.

    The Snow Dragon, bought from Ukraine in 1993, is currently China’s only ice breaker. A second being built in China with the help of a Finnish company, should be completed in 2014.

  3. Hey have you read Lawrence Smith – he stole the march on the Arctic World paradigm anacronym on you, I think with NORCS (2010). Though ARCS certainly has a nicer ring to it 🙂

    http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/downloads/297/396.pdf

    • 回复: @Anatoly Karlin
    @马克·斯莱博达

    I've read Smith's book though after I wrote this article. I will write a review someday.

    But thanks for supporting ARCS over NORCs. :)

  4. How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    • 回复: @charly
    @乔治亚居民

    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    Replies: @Georgia Resident, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Jennifer Hor
    @乔治亚居民

    I believe that people in Scandinavia and Finland enjoy quite generous social benefits that include maternity and paternity leave. Social welfare and family policies that encourage high female work participation, gender equality and family support translate into a high fertility rate.
    http://www.nikk.no/Gender+Equality+and+Fertility.9UFRzO43.ips

    The lowest fertility rates in First World countries (Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain) are often associated with social policies that present women with either/or options (they can work and stay single OR they can marry / have children and drop out of work BUT they can't work and marry / have children) and which reflect strong conservative religious or social attitudes in those countries.
    http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2008_4/01billari.pdf

    BTW fertility rates in Muslim countries have been falling though the media hardly talks about this. Iran carried out a family planning education program in the 1980s/90s and that country is now regarded as a model of how family planning education should be done as fertility rates have crashed there.
    http://www.lifenews.com/2012/07/05/underpopulation-muslim-world-faces-devastating-fertility-decline/

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @乔治亚居民

    I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders...

    Why not? More people --> Sky-rocketing property prices. It's good to get in early. :)

  5. “China encroach on the Russian Far East?”

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    • 回复: @charly
    @AG

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America

    回复:@Anatoly Karlin

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AG

    Antarctic ice will take centuries to melt, even under the most apocalyptic scenarios.

    But by 3000 AD who knows?

  6. @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    Replies: @charly, @Jennifer Hor, @Anatoly Karlin

    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920’s it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.

    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    • 回复: @Georgia Resident
    @查理

    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    回复:@ charly,@ Anatoly Karlin

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @查理

    The critical point about societies like Sweden or the UK isn't even so much the higher but still modest fertility rates of the incomers (in tandem with their younger ages) but that many of them continue to come in while ethnic Brits and Swedes emigrate in large numbers.

    This is resulting in surprisingly fact population replacement in those areas.

    I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.

    Actually the "Jews" but of that is something of an urban legend. Will have a post on that someday.

  7. @AG
    "China encroach on the Russian Far East?"

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    回复:@ charly,@ Anatoly Karlin

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America

    • 回复: @Anatoly Karlin
    @查理

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water.

    I wouldn't say so. There's still tons of land, and better, very interconnected via waterways.

  8. @Mark Sleboda
    Hey have you read Lawrence Smith - he stole the march on the Arctic World paradigm anacronym on you, I think with NORCS (2010). Though ARCS certainly has a nicer ring to it :)

    http://www.amazon.com/The-World-2050-Civilizations-Northern/dp/0525951814

    http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/downloads/297/396.pdf

    回复:@Anatoly Karlin

    I’ve read Smith’s book though after I wrote this article. I will write a review someday.

    But thanks for supporting ARCS over NORCs. 🙂

  9. @charly
    @乔治亚居民

    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    Replies: @Georgia Resident, @Anatoly Karlin

    1. “Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia.”
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. “Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.”
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It’s not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    “The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)”

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. “They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. “Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.”
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    • 回复: @charly
    @乔治亚居民

    1. There is something called maths. It allows you to calculated for example how high the birthrate needs to be for a 10% minority to pull up the average birthrate from 1.5 to 1.8. That would be 4.5. Problem is those groups are way less than 10% and maximum normal family size of those groups were 5/6 20 years ago, now less.

    2 I used Eastern European Jews and Italians because when they landed they were considered dumber than average. If i would now make a joke about how Italian Americans as dumb than people would look funny at me and not because it would be racist. Doing it with Jews and i would be considered an idiot

    Iraq Upper class + Christians
    Afghanistan Upper class
    Poland Hicks
    Somalia Serious Upper class
    Thailand Some Southerners but mostly North East (not good)
    Iran Upper class
    Eritrea Upper class
    China probably the normal Chinese emigrant.
    Syria Christians
    Turkey Anatolian and Kurdish Hicks

    I would go for the upper class

    3. So it is Georgia USA

    4. There has to an incredible amount of upheaval for property rights to seriously break down. But there is a problem with minorities, like for example the Turkish, that will be significantly richer than the average Norwegian.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @乔治亚居民

    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that's about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That's still higher than most of the world.

    回覆-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    回覆-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn't fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    回覆-Poland Hicks. Nope - the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    回复:@charly

  10. @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    Replies: @charly, @Jennifer Hor, @Anatoly Karlin

    I believe that people in Scandinavia and Finland enjoy quite generous social benefits that include maternity and paternity leave. Social welfare and family policies that encourage high female work participation, gender equality and family support translate into a high fertility rate.
    http://www.nikk.no/Gender+Equality+and+Fertility.9UFRzO43.ips

    The lowest fertility rates in First World countries (Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain) are often associated with social policies that present women with either/or options (they can work and stay single OR they can marry / have children and drop out of work BUT they can’t work and marry / have children) and which reflect strong conservative religious or social attitudes in those countries.
    http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2008_4/01billari.pdf

    BTW fertility rates in Muslim countries have been falling though the media hardly talks about this. Iran carried out a family planning education program in the 1980s/90s and that country is now regarded as a model of how family planning education should be done as fertility rates have crashed there.
    http://www.lifenews.com/2012/07/05/underpopulation-muslim-world-faces-devastating-fertility-decline/

  11. @Georgia Resident
    @查理

    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    回复:@ charly,@ Anatoly Karlin

    1. There is something called maths. It allows you to calculated for example how high the birthrate needs to be for a 10% minority to pull up the average birthrate from 1.5 to 1.8. That would be 4.5. Problem is those groups are way less than 10% and maximum normal family size of those groups were 5/6 20 years ago, now less.

    2 I used Eastern European Jews and Italians because when they landed they were considered dumber than average. If i would now make a joke about how Italian Americans as dumb than people would look funny at me and not because it would be racist. Doing it with Jews and i would be considered an idiot

    Iraq Upper class + Christians
    Afghanistan Upper class
    Poland Hicks
    Somalia Serious Upper class
    Thailand Some Southerners but mostly North East (not good)
    Iran Upper class
    Eritrea Upper class
    China probably the normal Chinese emigrant.
    Syria Christians
    Turkey Anatolian and Kurdish Hicks

    I would go for the upper class

    3. So it is Georgia USA

    4. There has to an incredible amount of upheaval for property rights to seriously break down. But there is a problem with minorities, like for example the Turkish, that will be significantly richer than the average Norwegian.

  12. @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    Replies: @charly, @Jennifer Hor, @Anatoly Karlin

    I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders…

    Why not? More people –> Sky-rocketing property prices. It’s good to get in early. 🙂

  13. @AG
    "China encroach on the Russian Far East?"

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    回复:@ charly,@ Anatoly Karlin

    Antarctic ice will take centuries to melt, even under the most apocalyptic scenarios.

    But by 3000 AD who knows?

  14. @charly
    @AG

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America

    回复:@Anatoly Karlin

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water.

    I wouldn’t say so. There’s still tons of land, and better, very interconnected via waterways.

  15. @charly
    @乔治亚居民

    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    Replies: @Georgia Resident, @Anatoly Karlin

    The critical point about societies like Sweden or the UK isn’t even so much the higher but still modest fertility rates of the incomers (in tandem with their younger ages) but that many of them continue to come in while ethnic Brits and Swedes emigrate in large numbers.

    This is resulting in surprisingly fact population replacement in those areas.

    I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.

    Actually the “Jews” but of that is something of an urban legend. Will have a post on that someday.

  16. @Georgia Resident
    @查理

    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    回复:@ charly,@ Anatoly Karlin

    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that’s about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That’s still higher than most of the world.

    回覆-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    回覆-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn’t fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    回覆-Poland Hicks. Nope – the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    • 回复: @charly
    @Anatoly卡琳

    If you mean with rest of the world Africa and India than yes, Rednecks are smarter than average.

    Unlikely, Caste societies can only develop if groups don't interbreed. That is why the US has a Caste society between whites and blacks but not between Wasps and low IQ emigrants like Italians, Greeks and Eastern European Jews.

    The only Somalis you see here could afford to get here, That requires serious money, especially in such a poor country. I would even argue that their high unemployment is due to being upper class

    The average pole is also much younger than the average Pole back home. Add in a minority of elite Poles and you get on average better educated. Besides it is not like the bottom 10% is hicks. They all are.

  17. @Chris
    Sounds interesting but the key is keeping out third world refugees/immigrants.

    回复:@Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t think that will be peaceful. The ARCS I expect will become something resembling caste societies by the 22nd century.

  18. @Anatoly Karlin
    @乔治亚居民

    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that's about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That's still higher than most of the world.

    回覆-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    回覆-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn't fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    回覆-Poland Hicks. Nope - the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    回复:@charly

    If you mean with rest of the world Africa and India than yes, Rednecks are smarter than average.

    Unlikely, Caste societies can only develop if groups don’t interbreed. That is why the US has a Caste society between whites and blacks but not between Wasps and low IQ emigrants like Italians, Greeks and Eastern European Jews.

    The only Somalis you see here could afford to get here, That requires serious money, especially in such a poor country. I would even argue that their high unemployment is due to being upper class

    The average pole is also much younger than the average Pole back home. Add in a minority of elite Poles and you get on average better educated. Besides it is not like the bottom 10% is hicks. They all are.

评论被关闭。

通过RSS订阅所有Anatoly Karlin评论