Open Thread 185: Russia/Ukraine
Search Text Case Sensitive Exact Words Include Comments
List of Bookmarks
The previous Open Thread has passed 800 comments and reportedly getting a little sluggish, so here’s a new one for the Karlin Community.
— Ron Unz
Follow @akarlin0
Not committed to the Sikh people – only the Maryada or Code of Conduct (death)
Just honest about where the intentions/perspectives lie.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Flashman At The Charge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flashman_at_the_Charge
Congreve Rockets smash up a Russian expedition to conquer India. By sinking ships coming down the Rivers in Central Asia. Count Ignatieff makes an appearance. Real Life Almost playing out like fictional script.
I am unashamedly pro-Russian and believed they have been goaded into this war.
I would like to believe they are winning.
I am waiting for the famed cauldron in the east to become a reality.
I have been waiting such a long time, I am beginning to tke the MSM seriously again.
I still don’t think the Russians were responsible for Bucha.
You are form NZ, aren't you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.Replies: @22pp22, @22pp22, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen
Is the most popular porn search term map of France more alarming that the sickle cell tests for newborns?
Paris is “ebony.”
“I would like to believe they are winning.” – Ask yourself a question why supply lines from Poland, Slovakia and Romania were not cut off by Russians. What stops them? There are ten transport planes with supplies from America coming every day to Poland. Then there are tens of thousands of tons of ammo moved daily and more and more heavy weapons are coming form all over Europe and even Australia. These supplies must go through several hundreds of miles on open roads and railways in Ukraine to reach place where they are needed. It is 750 miles from Lvov to Donetsk. Where is Russian air force and cruise missiles to bomb the supplies and where is Russian specnaz to blow up most important bridges on the supply lines?
You are form NZ, aren’t you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.
https://ak1.ostkcdn.com/images/products/is/images/direct/b066bd5a8b854c3434df0620a5bd0edeb6db713b/%22Daffy-Duck-%28%29%22-Poster-Print.jpg
Russia has 350 jets left. They did try using them. They lost 11 in two days to anti aircraft missiles. IF they fly high S300 and BUKs can see them. If they fly low various MANPADs can hit them. They no longer fly over Ukrainian positions. The army, naval infantry, guards, VDV were fully committed to the war. The available navy has been put in harms way. The airforce is being kept back.
In all cases Russia is using a non replenishable stock of equipment. Presumably the army and navy don't matter because in a war with NATO tactical nukes would be used instead. However, a war with NATO would be an airwar. To deliver and defend against tactical nukes aircraft will be needed. The argument "Russia is not using its best" fails with the army and navy but with the airforce there may be a case.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry
You are form NZ, aren't you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.Replies: @22pp22, @22pp22, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen
I am not a big ant-vaxxer. I am a hesitant ant-vaxxer. I am not old enough or obese enough to be in serious danger. If I were a bit older, I would have taken the vaccine. And I see Australasia disappearing under a tidal wave of non-European immigration, so I cannot really see the point of backing Western governments, who really do not like their own people.
Beijing is not African.
And why would I want to live in Neocon America, a country I wholly despise?
You are form NZ, aren't you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.Replies: @22pp22, @22pp22, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen
And don’t talk to me about democracy.
Censorship is rampant in America, far worse than in many of the countries it criticises.
And the J6 protestors were locked up without trial and without charge a year ago. Most of them did nothing but trespass dressed in silly costumes.
America bombs, brutalises, kills and maims without scruple, and Americans still have the nerve to lecture the entire planet about morals. Libya, Syria and dozen other countries may never recover after a visit from US cowboys in white hats.
I have been to your country. The drug addiction and mental illness have to be seen to be believed.
I used to be an academic. If you were to say there were two genders at dinner table at a conference in the US, half the people would look scared and the other half would attack you.
BLM, CRT, gender reassignment for kids – look in the bl00dy mirror. It’s not a pretty sight.
The truth is spreading.
You are form NZ, aren't you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.Replies: @22pp22, @22pp22, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen
YOU’RE DESPICABLE
https://twitter.com/Parikramah/status/1319125593439559680
Just honest about where the intentions/perspectives lie.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹReplies: @Greasy William, @Barbarossa
Isn’t there some famous Sikh martyr who was executed via being sawed in half and he took it without screaming? Does Sikhism teach magic ways to control pain? I could use such magic to help with my sinus problems.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
lol, Dmitry Medvedev, former RF president and current chairman of ruling party, announced today in the morning that RF will shoot down Musk’s Starlink satellites, because it was used to locate and target fire at sunk flagman ship several days ago.
Very good, it’s first direct confession of it being blown by enemy fire, instead of just some unfortunate accident. Making white antiwoke racist Musk and its technology empire public direct enemy of RF is also good news 😉
https://www.er-duma.ru/news/predsedatel-partii-edinaya-rossiya-dmitrij-medvedev-zayavil-o-postavlennyh-vks-rossii-zadachah-po-unichtozheniyu-gruppirovki-sputnikov-starlink/
1. Russia declaring war on Musk;
2. Twitter poison pilling their stock;
3. His baby mama is dating Chelsea Manning?
It is not impossible that poor Elon is one of those intelligence agency child prodigies who was buggered a couple hundred times before puberty as part of his onboarding program.Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird
I remember the days when Martyanov and Saker explained here to us all how the Black Sea was a Russian lake, NATO ships were just sitting ducks, Russia could easily put an end to the Ukrainian regime by arresting its leaders in a special operation,... they were so serious and self-confident in their assessments, using arcane technical terms and equations even.
There is a reason why AK stopped repeating the "shock and disbelief" mantra a long time ago. Instead, he's now talking on Twitter about the "white pill" of the Moskva "big L" being that if a Neptune can do that, imagine what the much better Russian missiles can do. While regularly musing about what severe pains Russia would deserve if it failed to defeat Ukraine.
I have actually started to think that there may not be an oncoming second phase of this war. The second phase perhaps is what we're already seeing: a slow and painful gain of territory in Donbass while Ukraine keeps receiving billions in sophisticated weapons without Russia apparently being able to do much about it.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @sudden death
tbf, it is almost too good to be true that it might even be some hack or fake site which is copying the style of official “United Russia” page, so it would be better to wait for more confirmations…
Remember Russiagate? Is it surprising they are paranoid?
They have stuff we need. The end of cheap Russian gas to Europe will put a permanent brake on the economy.
All we had to do was Finlandise Ukraine, but the Neocons have their own agenda and an army of useful idiots to back them up.
P.S. The site looks legit.
This war is in the brainchild of Satan, AKA Victoria Nuland. Do yo really wan to be a Nuland fanboy?Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death
What is funnier:
1. Russia declaring war on Musk;
2. Twitter poison pilling their stock;
3. His baby mama is dating Chelsea Manning?
It is not impossible that poor Elon is one of those intelligence agency child prodigies who was buggered a couple hundred times before puberty as part of his onboarding program.
Only that Rhodes mined pretty pyroclastic superheated pressurised carbon and Musk cornered the market on Carbon Dioxide.
Razib is saying Musk should pay off Sri Lanka's debt and then become unquestioned ruler there. Musk seems to employ an interesting reproductive strategy.
First child died of SIDS. Then had twin sons via IVF. Then had triplet sons via IVF. (all previous with Wilson) Then had a son with Grimes. Then had a daughter with Grimes via surrogate.
Maybe, when you have five sons already, that encourages you to shift to a more r-selected strategy, where the women are chosen for looks, and you don't care about the craziness? Me, I'd sacrifice one or two on the looks scale for more sanity.
1. Russia declaring war on Musk;
2. Twitter poison pilling their stock;
3. His baby mama is dating Chelsea Manning?
It is not impossible that poor Elon is one of those intelligence agency child prodigies who was buggered a couple hundred times before puberty as part of his onboarding program.Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird
Musk is turning out to be the modern equivalent of Cecil Rhodes, as you point out.
Only that Rhodes mined pretty pyroclastic superheated pressurised carbon and Musk cornered the market on Carbon Dioxide.
Why is making an enemy of Russia a good thing?
Remember Russiagate? Is it surprising they are paranoid?
They have stuff we need. The end of cheap Russian gas to Europe will put a permanent brake on the economy.
All we had to do was Finlandise Ukraine, but the Neocons have their own agenda and an army of useful idiots to back them up.
P.S. The site looks legit.
This war is in the brainchild of Satan, AKA Victoria Nuland. Do yo really wan to be a Nuland fanboy?
Putin is just firing people who don’t perform, by comparison.Replies: @JimDandy
Remember Russiagate? Is it surprising they are paranoid?
They have stuff we need. The end of cheap Russian gas to Europe will put a permanent brake on the economy.
All we had to do was Finlandise Ukraine, but the Neocons have their own agenda and an army of useful idiots to back them up.
P.S. The site looks legit.
This war is in the brainchild of Satan, AKA Victoria Nuland. Do yo really wan to be a Nuland fanboy?Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death
Ukraine may have its own imperial ambitions. It’s a major arms exporter. There’s an undercurrent of this in talk of an Intermarium. An empire stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. One thing to note is the ongoing purge in Ukraine of politically moderate or pro Russian military, police, business, diplomatic, academic, technological and industrial elites. The Kievan regime dream of a country slightly bigger than Texas exporting weapons all over Africa and Asia and perhaps even technological exchange with Israel.
Putin is just firing people who don’t perform, by comparison.
They better not say it loud or else US gains another reason to intervene, to protect part of its communications network
The Ukraine was a major arms exporter until 2019. That’s probably when they decided they better keep their manufactures inside Ukraine. Would love to see the top secret stuff in Whitehall, DC and Brussels. The exports dropped by 1/2. They make some good gear. They now have a wealth of data about the suitability of their industrial designs and manufacturing capacity for modern war.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294319/ukraine-arms-exports-by-country/
I’d guess the decision to have a war was made around 2018. Covid19 simply looks like the first skirmishes to get the East and West into a security focussed mindset. Prep for biological warfare, prep for paranoia and self destruction.
OK, but don’t forget the rough seas…
I remember the days when Martyanov and Saker explained here to us all how the Black Sea was a Russian lake, NATO ships were just sitting ducks, Russia could easily put an end to the Ukrainian regime by arresting its leaders in a special operation,… they were so serious and self-confident in their assessments, using arcane technical terms and equations even.
There is a reason why AK stopped repeating the “shock and disbelief” mantra a long time ago. Instead, he’s now talking on Twitter about the “white pill” of the Moskva “big L” being that if a Neptune can do that, imagine what the much better Russian missiles can do. While regularly musing about what severe pains Russia would deserve if it failed to defeat Ukraine.
I have actually started to think that there may not be an oncoming second phase of this war. The second phase perhaps is what we’re already seeing: a slow and painful gain of territory in Donbass while Ukraine keeps receiving billions in sophisticated weapons without Russia apparently being able to do much about it.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1515818747398955009Replies: @A123
Bootlip & Snipcock discuss European identity.
Ww3 has begun.
https://twitter.com/ZeXeLife/status/1515332109317066758/photo/1
I remember the days when Martyanov and Saker explained here to us all how the Black Sea was a Russian lake, NATO ships were just sitting ducks, Russia could easily put an end to the Ukrainian regime by arresting its leaders in a special operation,... they were so serious and self-confident in their assessments, using arcane technical terms and equations even.
There is a reason why AK stopped repeating the "shock and disbelief" mantra a long time ago. Instead, he's now talking on Twitter about the "white pill" of the Moskva "big L" being that if a Neptune can do that, imagine what the much better Russian missiles can do. While regularly musing about what severe pains Russia would deserve if it failed to defeat Ukraine.
I have actually started to think that there may not be an oncoming second phase of this war. The second phase perhaps is what we're already seeing: a slow and painful gain of territory in Donbass while Ukraine keeps receiving billions in sophisticated weapons without Russia apparently being able to do much about it.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @sudden death
It’s ww3.
https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dralexandra/72511122/2256788/2256788_original.jpg
Interview with the general counsel of the US state department. Basically Blinken’s right-hand man of sorts.
He makes a startling disclosure. They never even gave Russia the opportunity to talk things like NATO expansion in the negotiations, which basically forced Russia’s hand. A hostile military alliance on Russia’s doorstep was obviously going to lead to war, just as if Mexico were to join China in a military alliance and station troops there.
The hardliners were always in Washington. Ukraine’s fate was sealed by its ostensible allies.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/a-conversation-with-the-counselor-derek-chollet-on-navigating-the-world/
Putin's hardliners in the Moscow Kremlin have chosen national suicide for their Nigeria-with-nukes Third World garbage dump of a country.
Ukraine's fate has been sealed by the courage and heroism of its warriors, by Armed Forces of Ukraine, by Azov Regiment—whose heroes at Mariupol closest thing to modern Spartans at Thermopylæ defending White European civilisation from dark hordes of barbaric oriental invader orc savages.
Russian orcs can go ahead and commit the worst atrocities under Moscow's genocidal terror campaign strategy deliberately targeting civilians for destruction. But, ultimately Ukrainians will rebuild Ukraine—and Ukraine will integrate into NATO and the EU...whereas Russian Federation will collapse into the ash heap of history and war criminal Moskal monke Vladimir Putin will meet his demise in a fate that will make Gaddafi's end look serene by comparison.
https://twitter.com/derelictcyborg/status/1515035295661633540Replies: @Coconuts
Egalitarianism is evil, Egalitarianism is death. 🙂
Congreve Rockets smash up a Russian expedition to conquer India. By sinking ships coming down the Rivers in Central Asia. Count Ignatieff makes an appearance. Real Life Almost playing out like fictional script.Replies: @songbird, @S, @Philip Owen
I’ve heard some rumors that Moskva was done in by British-made missiles, but I don’t see how it can be proved one way or the other.
The strike was approved by the Americans and British though. So it’s complicated and it’s ww3 now.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Turkish Drones and some kind of domestically manufactured Anti Ship Missile. The Ukrainians have designed such weaponry…
Frankly I don’t think that the British or Americans want Ukraine to have missiles like this. That’s a strategically significant capability that gives Ukraine claim to Imperial reach.
The strike was approved by the Americans and British though. So it’s complicated and it’s ww3 now.
The moment Finland joins NATO?
The strike was approved by the Americans and British though. So it’s complicated and it’s ww3 now.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Ukraine…Imperial reach?? Gaining back lands that were recently part of the Ukrainian state isn’t exactly enough fertilizer for any such conspiracy theories.
In certain sections of the dissident racialist right there’s a debate about this peculiar but obscure Intermarium concept beloved of Ukrainian ultra nationalistic radicals. It’s created a lot of falling out among old friends. The Azov unit name clearly refers to keeping a presence on the Azov Sea by Ukrainians and their allies and volunteers in Poland, Baltic States. Perhaps it even refers to crossing the little sea to occupy the town of Azov to cut off the Don.
Never the less there’s clearly some kind of ambition in the rhetoric I’ve heard about breaking up Russian Federation into Five Russias. The medieval and early modern area called “Sloboda Ukraine” encompasses Kursk and Belgorod. I’m sure there’s a party that claim them, and they’ve got MI6 and Zelenskyy’s ear. Some of these Ukrainian nationalists are clearly looking at Russian Federation oblasts with appetites bigger than their stomachs. Would they seek vassal oblasts of their own if the Russian Federation disintegrates? Yes.
1. Russia declaring war on Musk;
2. Twitter poison pilling their stock;
3. His baby mama is dating Chelsea Manning?
It is not impossible that poor Elon is one of those intelligence agency child prodigies who was buggered a couple hundred times before puberty as part of his onboarding program.Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird
There are perils to being tied too much into MIC, but I wonder if Russia has the capability to take them all down. There are 2,103 in orbit – guessing they all fly over Russia and Ukraine. Doubt the Peresvet laser has that sort of range, and otherwise that would be a lot of missiles – possibly more expensive to shoot them down than put them up. (Maybe, it could be done cheaply with radio waves?)
I’m not sure that it wasn’t all play-acting. For example, in the past, Musk has supported an end to anonymity on Twitter.
Razib is saying Musk should pay off Sri Lanka’s debt and then become unquestioned ruler there.
Musk seems to employ an interesting reproductive strategy.
First child died of SIDS. Then had twin sons via IVF. Then had triplet sons via IVF. (all previous with Wilson) Then had a son with Grimes. Then had a daughter with Grimes via surrogate.
Maybe, when you have five sons already, that encourages you to shift to a more r-selected strategy, where the women are chosen for looks, and you don’t care about the craziness? Me, I’d sacrifice one or two on the looks scale for more sanity.
The sunk ship. It’s strategic target that was sunk. Response could be areabombing and dehousing.
As soon as this year (but certainly not the ship sinking), and as late as 2025 - the date Martin Armstrong gives for the start of massive depopulation. The war in Ukraine 100% will be to WWIII what the 2nd Sino-Japanese War is to the Pacific War - Expansionism by regional powers becoming the obstacle to an emergent global order that is to be neutralized at the first possible opportunity. As history goes, aircraft carriers left the harbor and battleships sat duck...Replies: @Wokechoke
https://twitter.com/Parikramah/status/1319125593439559680
Just honest about where the intentions/perspectives lie.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹReplies: @Greasy William, @Barbarossa
You’ve gotten me interested in looking into the history of the Sikhs in India. The people within a people aspect seems like an interesting dynamic to learn more about. Do you have any recommendations on good histories?
This one looks pretty promising to me, but what do I know?
It’s a nice primer for a westerner.
I am getting many good pointers on books here lately.
We really need an Unz Review book rec section. For instance: Foucault, like Nietzsche, is surprisingly worth reading. Don't let the fact that these philosophers seem to have been degenerate nutcases make you underestimate them, but don't forget it, either.
Fiction: I just finished going through Wuthering Heights. I am surprised by how much AaronB would like it, as it can be interpreted among other things as an allegory of power-- its origin in pain, its development in acquisitiveness, and, in the renewal of the new year at the end of the book, its ultimate failure.
I have also gotten a few good movie recommendations on here. My family and I are currently watching Vadachennai, which is a commercial Tamil film that is so far not half as bad as I expected, though it is not particularly deep. Sinhalese films are often very good: I was very affected by Oba Nathuwa Oba Ekka ("With You, Without You"). Slavs on here should like it as it is based on a Dostoevsky story.
Χριστός ἀνέστη!Replies: @songbird
Has anyone read that new face study in Nature?
Haven’t read it, but what I seem to have heard, unless I’m misinterpreting it, is that the differences in facial shape between Euros and East Asians (particularly the nose) are mainly do to directional selection in Euros, which, if true, surprises me greatly. I’m still trying to wrap my head around what the implications are.
Is it mainly about ancient migratory routes, or does it say something about modern geography and climate?
Read George MacDonald Frazier’s “Flashman and the Mountain of Light” It’s about Flanshy banging out the Rhani and stealing the Kho i Nor diamond from the Sikhs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flashman_and_the_Mountain_of_Light
It’s a nice primer for a westerner.
Congreve Rockets smash up a Russian expedition to conquer India. By sinking ships coming down the Rivers in Central Asia. Count Ignatieff makes an appearance. Real Life Almost playing out like fictional script.Replies: @songbird, @S, @Philip Owen
Soooo…that’s where the character Lord Flasheart came from in Rowan Atkinson’s Blackadder series. As a related aside, Miranda Richardson as Queenie in the same series has to have been the hottest Queen Elizabeth there ever was.
The kid's (and I) like Mr. Bean since I own the original series but I'll have to pick up Blackadder at some point. Not that I'll be watching Blackadder with the kids! ;)Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123
It’s reassuring to see that you consider the dismemberment of Russia into Five separate states as a distinct possibility. 🙂
The only parts of Russia that would have any possibility of joining a greater Ukrainian state might be the Kuban region or possibly even some of the areas settled by Ukrainians in Siberia (Zelenij Klyn etc.). But even this seems far fetched in this day and age.
Btw, the parallels between this and the 1940s are uncanny... mass deportation, forced mobilization of locals into the occupying army & mass graves that are opened with people looking for their loved ones..Replies: @Wokechoke
Why bother with the mysteries of Sikhism when Songbird and I can initiate you into the ancient Celtic pain tolerance abilities necessary to yell “FREEDOM” while being drawn and quartered? You can own your sinuses like William Wallace.
Ah yes, Blackadder was great fun. I ended up watching all the series within a couple weeks when I triple fractured my ankle a couple years back, since I had never seen them previously. It was good diversion at the time.
The kid’s (and I) like Mr. Bean since I own the original series but I’ll have to pick up Blackadder at some point. Not that I’ll be watching Blackadder with the kids! 😉
IMHO, the best comedy series from the UK is RED DWARF. They did thingS that would be unthinkable in America.
PEACE 😇
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nUEZrA5WJM4
The war has no effect on me or my country, but I do find it amazing how easily I get emotionally involved with the conflict. I have followed the situation in Donetsk, Lugansk and Syria for years now, so of course I support Z. It was very funny to look at social media and see how people suddenly became furious over news they ignored until they were told to start caring by twitter and/or facebook.
The problem is that I feel the same anger, just for the opposite side to most new “experts” and sheep. I saw it first, dammit! A very peculiar feeling indeed, but I have to say I am entertained and thinking furiously at least. It beats local news, South Africa can be a very depressing place if you have to look at our news constantly.
I’m thinking that maybe a Cold war situation could in the long run stabilize most parts of the world, curbing the West from running rampant. The problem is that I’m living in the third world, which is prime proxy war territory. The big players will likely end up exporting and sponsoring conflict in my neck of the woods. Apartheid suddenly ended when we were no longer useful fighting communism. The more things change, the more they stay the same, eh?
There is a great interview with a Sikh holy man in Road Scholar, Andrei Codrescu road movie Romanian immigrant literature professor pokes fun at American culture.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/road_scholar
Which I saw one time twenty years ago and still remember this bit verbatim.
Holiness concerns your holes. Control what goes in and out of your eyes and your mouth and your ears and whatnot and you will be holy.
Sikhs consider you and I unholy scum. They are good at security.
On the second I have little doubt. One can't really have a functional group identity or religion without some delineation of the "other". Still, it seems like it might be an interesting group to brush up on the history of.
@AaaronB
It’s an interesting question, but for practical purposes I doubt we can really improve on defining knowledge as justified true belief. (Of course, epistemologists keep trying.)
To me the more important question is not what can we be certain of, but what is the most reasonable thing to believe, given the available evidence?
If we eschew reason, we open the door to a thousand absurdities. In your haste to remind us of how uncertain our knowledge is, you might remind yourself of this.
On the other hand, what we believe strongly influences how we experience life, and therefore I can’t help thinking that, on certain points, some degree of faith is very necessary and more “reasonable.” For instance, a purely rational approach seems to eliminate the possibility of free will, so I am forced to resort to faith that such a thing exists, but I do believe the quality of my life is thereby considerably enhanced. In contrast, believing in determinism may be more rational, but it degrades my experience of life. So which is the more “reasonable” belief?
This is your own imagination, hypothetical and overly ambitious, the original idea is to just improve communication among these states. However, you might find it interesting that the white-light blue-white flag of Novgorod has surfaced not just among Russian liberals, but also a small group of nationalists.
A couple of weeks ago the Russian Legion “Freedom of Russia” was formed in Ukraine by a few bold Russian guys, real bogatyrs, who decided to come to the side of Ukraine and who want to fight for Russia free of any kind of tyranny. Of course, this is a very small group but these kinds of guys are not a new phenomenon, it’s not a surprise they surface during this war, too.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD_%C2%AB%D0%A1%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8%C2%BB
Bravo. I like the cut of your jib, 22. Keep ’em coming.
Putin is just firing people who don’t perform, by comparison.Replies: @JimDandy
More and more, “Ukraine” is starting to look to me like the America of Eastern Europe. That is, a country run by Jewish oligarchs with a foreign policy that serves the interests of Israel.
George IslamoSoros and his puppet Biden are quite upset with Israel & Hungary. Of course, Not-The-President Biden's popularity is so abysmal no major player takes him seriously.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/04/13/bennett-is-siding-with-the-ruthless-killer-putin/
(2) https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hasnt-joined-anti-russia-sanctions-but-its-firms-need-to-tread-carefully/Replies: @JimDandy, @Greasy William
The Ukrainian nationalist maps from the 1930s show a much larger Ukraine (some of the territories originally inhabited by Ukrainians). Not only is this idea far fetched today and somewhat too aggressive, the problem is that the population in the East is being destroyed right now. The Russian occupation forces have apparently deported something like 100K women and children from the occupied territories to Russia (at least this info appeared in the Ukrainian media recently, I hope this isn’t true, but unfortunately it could be – people are straight up being stolen and deported against the rules of the Geneva convention which state that local populations cannot be moved or mobilized during an occupation). You can argue that the majority of those are most likely Russophones, but still, it doesn’t matter, they are Ukrainian citizens and many of them did not want to leave to Russia. It should be a priority to salvage this population, as well as try to replenish the population in the West, despite the difficulties.
Btw, the parallels between this and the 1940s are uncanny… mass deportation, forced mobilization of locals into the occupying army & mass graves that are opened with people looking for their loved ones..
Christmas list is it?
Btw, the parallels between this and the 1940s are uncanny... mass deportation, forced mobilization of locals into the occupying army & mass graves that are opened with people looking for their loved ones..Replies: @Wokechoke
Russia is going all in.
The kid's (and I) like Mr. Bean since I own the original series but I'll have to pick up Blackadder at some point. Not that I'll be watching Blackadder with the kids! ;)Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123
I too once watched most of at least the first series, possibly the second, probably not the third and certainly not the fourth series. Creative English humor presented within a veneer of costume parody, how can you go wrong? I do remember that at times it was a bit too crude and ribald for proper family participation, but overall I concur that it had its amusing moments. Did you ever watch the fourth series?
The forth series, set in WW1 was by far the best. I would very much recommend it!
I’m not Russian. But I’ve got a good idea of the ambitions the ultra nationalist Ukrainians May have.
Nah, just wishing that this stupid war ends with Putler returning his troops home, the sooner the better. I am not looking forward to the carnage that is being envisioned by most of the pundits, in the eastern part of Ukraine. How about you? Or do you get turned on by this bloodshed like our former master and transhumanist vampire, Karlin?
I don’t care who you are, but you’re out to lunch.
Looks like Zemmour won in Corsica and SE coastal France.
_____
Will Russia do a general draft?
I once yelled that on the last day of school.
Russian Federation has never even come close to meeting the requirements to join NATO. There would be absolutely nothing to discuss with Moscow vis-à-vis NATO. Finland and Sweden are now joining NATO; no consultation of Moscow has been scheduled, nor will the Kremlin’s opinion ever be sought.
Putin’s hardliners in the Moscow Kremlin have chosen national suicide for their Nigeria-with-nukes Third World garbage dump of a country.
Ukraine’s fate has been sealed by the courage and heroism of its warriors, by Armed Forces of Ukraine, by Azov Regiment—whose heroes at Mariupol closest thing to modern Spartans at Thermopylæ defending White European civilisation from dark hordes of barbaric oriental invader orc savages.
Russian orcs can go ahead and commit the worst atrocities under Moscow’s genocidal terror campaign strategy deliberately targeting civilians for destruction. But, ultimately Ukrainians will rebuild Ukraine—and Ukraine will integrate into NATO and the EU…whereas Russian Federation will collapse into the ash heap of history and war criminal Moskal monke Vladimir Putin will meet his demise in a fate that will make Gaddafi’s end look serene by comparison.
The first bit seems like a valid enough piece of pithy advice. Most of the nuts and bolts of actual religious teaching is often very simple but quite hard to put into actual practice. I think that is why so many gravitate toward doctrine, it’s so much easier to intellectually engage with right theorizing than the daily endless struggle with right practice.
On the second I have little doubt. One can’t really have a functional group identity or religion without some delineation of the “other”. Still, it seems like it might be an interesting group to brush up on the history of.
Pretty ribald yes. Not for the kids by any stretch.
The forth series, set in WW1 was by far the best. I would very much recommend it!
Israel has solid ties with Russia… Pro-Ukraine voices have been enthusiastically denouncing Israel and PM Bennett: (1)
Israel values its partnerships with Russia. To keep that relationship going, they have maintained economic ties (2)
Israel has voiced objections. However, the track record of *actions* against Russian interests is quite slim & mostly symbolic (e.g. UNHRC membership).
George IslamoSoros and his puppet Biden are quite upset with Israel & Hungary. Of course, Not-The-President Biden’s popularity is so abysmal no major player takes him seriously.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/04/13/bennett-is-siding-with-the-ruthless-killer-putin/
(2) https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hasnt-joined-anti-russia-sanctions-but-its-firms-need-to-tread-carefully/
But, yes, peace on you, too.Replies: @A123
Israel's failure to stand up for what is right in this case is a moral blemish and is certain to bring about Divine retribution at some point.
To me the more important question is not what can we be certain of, but what is the most reasonable thing to believe, given the available evidence?
If we eschew reason, we open the door to a thousand absurdities. In your haste to remind us of how uncertain our knowledge is, you might remind yourself of this.
On the other hand, what we believe strongly influences how we experience life, and therefore I can't help thinking that, on certain points, some degree of faith is very necessary and more "reasonable." For instance, a purely rational approach seems to eliminate the possibility of free will, so I am forced to resort to faith that such a thing exists, but I do believe the quality of my life is thereby considerably enhanced. In contrast, believing in determinism may be more rational, but it degrades my experience of life. So which is the more "reasonable" belief?Replies: @AaronB
You make an excellent point, and one that is essential to overcoming our age.
A truly broad and wide conception of what constitutes rationality will take in the entire picture – is it “reasonable” to allow a mere theory – an abstract representation – to poison ones life?
Even in terms of rationality, our approach isn’t really rational – the idea that we must disbelieve in everything for which there isn’t absolute certainty , even if this visibly harms our life and happiness, is a curious form of “rationality” indeed that no longer serves life (Logic is supposed to be the Emissary, but has usurped the place of the Master.)
It’s no longer true that reason and science suggest a deterministic universe – that’s the old Newtonian mechanics. Today’s quantum science suggests a very non deterministic universe indeed.
But your point is much more important. A big part of the narrative modernity likes to tell itself is that we are “martyrs for truth” – that’s a big part of the modern mythos. Sure, a lifeless, deterministic universe may suck, but we’re such impressive adults for believing what the cold hard facts say, however much we don’t like it.
But once you start examining how we know anything at all, how our minds work, what the limits and functions of our minds are, you learn that you are not “compelled” to believe in a lifeless deterministic universe at all – it’s a choice.
Such a universe isn’t “proven” – there merely isn’t absolutely conclusive evidence to think otherwise. But we now know all our beliefs and conclusions, even the most scientific and mathematical, lack this certainty, and that abstract representations themselves (knowledge) have intrinsic limitations and are only approximations to a reality we can never fully capture in terms of their limited categories.
We think we have intellectual courage, but in fact we lack the courage to truly follow reasoning where it leads. We stop short.
(BTW, this question about the foundation of our knowledge drove Bertrand Russell to despair, and was a problem he worked on extensively later in life without success. He was convinced the inability to put knowledge on a foundation of certainty would lead to the demise of science. Modern culture is built on the desire for ever escalating levels of certainty, leading to an ever narrowing intellectual range as so much of life cannot be out in a foundation of certainty.)
So by examining the foundations of our knowledge, we can free ourselves of the “trap” of modernity. That’s why it’s so important.
Ultimately, the ultimate – and final – move of logic and rationality is to turn it’s examination onto itself .
A truly thoroughgoing and serious scepticism must ultimately become sceptical of skepticism itself.
That’s the final move in the dance of logic that frees you from it – of course one still uses reason but as a proper servant, one is no longer trapped in it’s fantast of itself as the only path to truth and as capable of providing certainty.
That’s when it is restored to it’s proper place as a servant and not the master – logic is the emissary that when it comes to dominate as master kills life.
So why hasn’t our society yet taken this final move in the game of logic? The philosophical infrastructure has already been developed by the great Western philosophers, and science increasingly paints a picture of reality that shows very clearly that our mental categories, and especially logic, are insufficient to fully grasp it.
Our entire civilization is poised on the brink of taking this next step….
Our ability to become healthy again depends on it.
For me, the issue goes deeper than that though. It doesn't help me much to know that my decisions were not completely deterministic, but still nonetheless products of purely natural processes. In other words, if quantum events are able to influence or produce mental events, so what? That's not "me" doing anything; it's just something happening to me. I need to believe that there is a 'willing subject' - a subject that wills; essentially, that there is a me, a self, that actually exists.
I suppose your Buddhist commitments would put you at odds with the notion that a self exists, that being one of the illusions that good living requires us to rid ourselves of. Personally, I've never understood how that helps me to live better at all. That's not to say I haven't "tried it on for size." Not once that I've flirted with it have I ever felt, "Phew, I don't really exist, what a relief. That really takes a load off my mind!" Not even an inkling of such feelings. If there has ever been a "skepticism to be skeptical of," for me this is it.Replies: @AaronB
The covid shot is not a vaccine and every time you use that term to describe it, you are playing into the hands of big pharma and strengthening their case. A “vaccine” is a doze of attenuated or dead virus or bacteria that is injected into a subject for the purpose of creating an immune response. The covid shots are an experimental bioweapon.
It was from the horse’s mouth.
The kid's (and I) like Mr. Bean since I own the original series but I'll have to pick up Blackadder at some point. Not that I'll be watching Blackadder with the kids! ;)Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123
Blackadder was very good.
IMHO, the best comedy series from the UK is RED DWARF. They did thingS that would be unthinkable in America.
PEACE 😇
The only people who are not terrified about this are journalists, arms dealers and politicians
George IslamoSoros and his puppet Biden are quite upset with Israel & Hungary. Of course, Not-The-President Biden's popularity is so abysmal no major player takes him seriously.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/04/13/bennett-is-siding-with-the-ruthless-killer-putin/
(2) https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hasnt-joined-anti-russia-sanctions-but-its-firms-need-to-tread-carefully/Replies: @JimDandy, @Greasy William
Israel valued their relationship with Donald Trump, too, right? And their unhappiness over Russia standing in the way of regime change in Syria was symbolic pouting?
But, yes, peace on you, too.
-- Regime change was an Obama / Erdogan concept.
-- Trump's MAGA administration reversed that unworkable policy. MAGA and Israel agree that the main threat to regional stability is sociopath Khamenei. Iranian Hezbollah interference in Lebanon generated a failed state. The key requirenent for peace is a Syria 100% free of Iranian troops and proxies. None of the Syrian opposition groups are credible. Obama planned to impose an SJW"Color Revolution" puppet government from the outside. That has no chance of working. Realistically, Assad remaining in charge could be the only viable end-state. #LetsGoBrandon 😇Replies: @JimDandy
You have a valid point that we have more physical power than ever before, which should translate into the freedom to live a happier life. That, after all, is the great promise of modernity, really.
But does it? It really depends on your values and what sort of lifestyle one most values. For myself, the vastly expanded powers of the modern world have nevertheless created a lifestyle and physical reality that greatly restrict my ability to live the life I would truly want. The world is far uglier and less interesting on every level than it can and should be.
Fascinating and complex ancient human cultures are being destroyed. Huge swathes of the worlds wilderness are also being destroyed. Cities and towns have become ugly and soulless.
The beauty and wonder of the world and it’s human inhabitants has been massively degraded.
And considering the extremely poor mental health increasingly afflicting the population of the developed world, I am certainly not alone.
Perhaps vastly expanded powers aren’t the key to happiness, as so many myths and legends insist on warning us 🙂
Now, you say that social pressure isn’t an absolute barrier to living an alternative lifestyle – and that’s true, but if we are being realistic about human nature as it is I think we have to admit that the social environment plays a huge role in circumscribing our choices.
But you make a good point that choice still exists, even if it has to be wrested from society – so my goal is much less to “transform” society than to win social support and approval for alternative lifestyles, and a kind of “spiritual infrastructure” that helps young people find this alternative path.
In traditional China and India, most people lived ordinary lives, but leaving city life behind and abandoning the rat race was an honored and socially validated choice that had a lot of spiritual infrastructure to support it.
So that needs to be restored to our society, I think.
But I think there is a more fundamental point to be made here. If a huge – and perhaps even the decisive – factor in being happy is the correct use of our minds and the correct mental and emotional relationship to the external world, then the “metaphysics” undergirding modern life, with it’s belief that mathematical certainty alone is the correct relationship to reality, leads to perhaps the most unhappy generation to have ever lived 🙂
I don’t see the task as “persuasion” which suggests force. Rather, I see it as simply formulating an alternative ideal and “inviting” others to consider it.
Many people today seem to suffer greatly from poor mental health in modern society without being aware there are alternatives.
Well, I would only want those who are genuinely unsatisfied with modernity and who will genuinely become significantly healthier and happier living an alternative life to do so – and I would “invite” them to consider it, and not “convince” them 🙂
It’s obviously unfair for such people to remain “economic captives” in a system designed for the benefit of those who still think the point of life is to make money and acquire things – and moreover, I hold out hope that even such benighted people will at least somewhat see the light after they see people flourishing who live opposite to them 🙂
Not to mention, the “economic lifestyle” of these mainstream people are not in themselves neutral, but actively contribute to an uglier and worse world.
So on every level I think it would be a positive thing for everyone.
I don’t believe there can be such “radical seperation” between those of us who pursue nature and the mainstream which seeks wealth and power – part of the “metaphysic” of nature-love, is the insight that we are all connected in a larger organic whole, and what goes on in one place affects everything.
So I think we have a spiritual duty to not “leave others behind” but work towards their salvation as well 🙂
Well said 🙂
This puts quite a bit of responsibility on my wife and I since very much depends on whether we live up to our own hype and standards. Hypocrisy will be easily detected and discredit much of what we are attempting to instill. There can be no dragging them into it, they will either embrace it for themselves or not. My oldest used to give us more guff about our minimal tech use and strict controls on it for the kids, but now that she is seeing some of the neurotic, unhealthy, and anxiety ridden behavior of some of her tech immersed cousins she increasingly sees that there is a valid point to our guardrails.
As you say, it is all about presenting an alternative. The way things seem to be increasingly headed I think many of those alternatives speak for themselves. I certainly see more and more people looking for an exit ramp.Replies: @AaronB
I will accept all the neuroticism that seems to come with the package rather than your rural mysticism which you seem to offer. I might be strawmanning you but that's what I feel with you tens of thousands of words expressing your disenchantment with contemporary civilization - I love it.Replies: @AaronB, @Barbarossa
Congreve Rockets smash up a Russian expedition to conquer India. By sinking ships coming down the Rivers in Central Asia. Count Ignatieff makes an appearance. Real Life Almost playing out like fictional script.Replies: @songbird, @S, @Philip Owen
The Russian invasion of India actually occured. There was French support. It disintegrated due to poor logistics before it even left Russian territory. IT did get East of the Caspian. Of course that could have been propaganda to discuss Flashman’s use of missiles. Which is worse to admit to enemy competence or one’s own incompetence.
Why don’t we saw you in half and find out?
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Belogord, Voronezh, Saratov and the Kuban still have Ukrainian speaking minorities that lived there before the Muscovites came down the Don valley.
Novgorod was a different matter even in the 10th century.
So, looking for some ancient divisions between Russian or Ukrainian speakers is hardly historical
I remember the days when Martyanov and Saker explained here to us all how the Black Sea was a Russian lake, NATO ships were just sitting ducks, Russia could easily put an end to the Ukrainian regime by arresting its leaders in a special operation,... they were so serious and self-confident in their assessments, using arcane technical terms and equations even.
There is a reason why AK stopped repeating the "shock and disbelief" mantra a long time ago. Instead, he's now talking on Twitter about the "white pill" of the Moskva "big L" being that if a Neptune can do that, imagine what the much better Russian missiles can do. While regularly musing about what severe pains Russia would deserve if it failed to defeat Ukraine.
I have actually started to think that there may not be an oncoming second phase of this war. The second phase perhaps is what we're already seeing: a slow and painful gain of territory in Donbass while Ukraine keeps receiving billions in sophisticated weapons without Russia apparently being able to do much about it.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @sudden death
…will happen to CCP’ied China landing ships when they will sail closer to Taiwan? Maybe Ukraine should offer to sell some to Taipei government if China will try more seriously help RF in to order avoid sanctioning, lol
Veering into more conspiratorial waters it might have been also joint US-UK-UA (3U alliance!) exercised operation including a goal to have a potential cautionary lesson against CCP naval plans regarding Taiwan too.
After all RF just had banned almost all GB current government from entering RF, so that may be a sign that British were seriously involved, maybe even rockets really were made in and delivered by UK like Harpoon(?) missiles?
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why-china-cannot-invade-taiwan/
You are form NZ, aren't you? And you are big anti-vaxxer and so on, right? You would feel more at home here in the US where there is much more wackos like you per capita than in NZ so you rooting for America to be defeated is against your self interest. Most of the idiotic crap that you believe was invented and got traction in America first. W/o America people like you would be eliminated from societies long time ago. If you get your wish that Chinese or Russians come down there and take over NZ you will put in a cage.Replies: @22pp22, @22pp22, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen
The missing Russian airforce is a big question.
Russia has 350 jets left. They did try using them. They lost 11 in two days to anti aircraft missiles. IF they fly high S300 and BUKs can see them. If they fly low various MANPADs can hit them. They no longer fly over Ukrainian positions. The army, naval infantry, guards, VDV were fully committed to the war. The available navy has been put in harms way. The airforce is being kept back.
In all cases Russia is using a non replenishable stock of equipment. Presumably the army and navy don’t matter because in a war with NATO tactical nukes would be used instead. However, a war with NATO would be an airwar. To deliver and defend against tactical nukes aircraft will be needed. The argument “Russia is not using its best” fails with the army and navy but with the airforce there may be a case.
A lot of the bombing in Ukraine is using unguided bombs. They are bombing Ukraine with FAB-500 bombs (which were pioneered in 1954). http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/air-bombs/fab-500-m-62/ This kind of bombing from smaller range with unguided weapons, also exposes planes to risk of being attacked from the ground. - With those limitations said, Ukraine are not necessarily very careful. There are reports their factories have been located by media reports (their factory for repairing tanks, was destroyed yesterday). There are reports tonight, one of Ukraine's transport planes containing Western supplies, was destroyed while flying. https://ria.ru/20220416/samolet-1783914498.htmlReplies: @siberiancat
But, yes, peace on you, too.Replies: @A123
You should spend more time on facts, and less time on #NeverTrump propaganda from the Fake Stream Media. Organizations like WaPo and CNN deliberately try to manufacture enmity against those they deem “deplorable”.
The actual situation is:
— Regime change was an Obama / Erdogan concept.
— Trump’s MAGA administration reversed that unworkable policy.
MAGA and Israel agree that the main threat to regional stability is sociopath Khamenei. Iranian Hezbollah interference in Lebanon generated a failed state. The key requirenent for peace is a Syria 100% free of Iranian troops and proxies.
None of the Syrian opposition groups are credible. Obama planned to impose an SJW”Color Revolution” puppet government from the outside. That has no chance of working. Realistically, Assad remaining in charge could be the only viable end-state.
#LetsGoBrandon 😇
Fixed that for you.
Here's a fact, Mr. Peaceman--I voted for Trump twice and hope to make it thrice. He played ball with Israel but he drew the line at starting new wars for them. That's largely why he isn't president right now. You can try to change the subject, but you can't succeed. Israel wanted regime change in Syria. As a group, Jews hate Putin. The Jewish State is certainly not the exception.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
Russia has 350 jets left. They did try using them. They lost 11 in two days to anti aircraft missiles. IF they fly high S300 and BUKs can see them. If they fly low various MANPADs can hit them. They no longer fly over Ukrainian positions. The army, naval infantry, guards, VDV were fully committed to the war. The available navy has been put in harms way. The airforce is being kept back.
In all cases Russia is using a non replenishable stock of equipment. Presumably the army and navy don't matter because in a war with NATO tactical nukes would be used instead. However, a war with NATO would be an airwar. To deliver and defend against tactical nukes aircraft will be needed. The argument "Russia is not using its best" fails with the army and navy but with the airforce there may be a case.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry
The Russians have 1,600 military aircraft at least. Around 600 aircraft that can dogfight and bomb. They have a few thousand qualified combat pilots. In the Battle of Britain it’s claimed the fighter command was down to 600 machines and several hundred pilots. Reality was there was a massive pool of excellent bomber pilots who could have easily jumped into Spitfires and Hurricanes and intercepted their German counterparts.
From what I know of the History the Russians built these cities as forts to impede Turkish and Tartar Invasion attempts. Kharkov was such a fort on the Muravsky Trail. The Invasion route from Crimea toward Moscow.
_____
Will Russia do a general draft?Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Only after Putin nukes Helsinki the moment Finland signs the treaty to enter NATO. It’s moot then because Moscow will blow up in a fireball very soon, along with most of the world’s urban areas.
The internal fire story might have spared Ukraine the rod of area bombing.
-- Regime change was an Obama / Erdogan concept.
-- Trump's MAGA administration reversed that unworkable policy. MAGA and Israel agree that the main threat to regional stability is sociopath Khamenei. Iranian Hezbollah interference in Lebanon generated a failed state. The key requirenent for peace is a Syria 100% free of Iranian troops and proxies. None of the Syrian opposition groups are credible. Obama planned to impose an SJW"Color Revolution" puppet government from the outside. That has no chance of working. Realistically, Assad remaining in charge could be the only viable end-state. #LetsGoBrandon 😇Replies: @JimDandy
— PUTIN reversed that unworkable policy.
Fixed that for you.
Here’s a fact, Mr. Peaceman–I voted for Trump twice and hope to make it thrice. He played ball with Israel but he drew the line at starting new wars for them. That’s largely why he isn’t president right now. You can try to change the subject, but you can’t succeed. Israel wanted regime change in Syria. As a group, Jews hate Putin. The Jewish State is certainly not the exception.
He wishes to evict NATO out of former Warsaw Bloc countries, but Putin’s current aims are mainly confined to Ukraine at the moment – it takes an actual escalatory move such as direct NATO involvement, or a deliberate false flag from either side for Putin to gain a casus belli for total war. Pearl Harbor this is not – Russian MoD so far says it was an ammunition explosion, of course, and most systems on the ship are (claimed to be) still functional.
As soon as this year (but certainly not the ship sinking), and as late as 2025 – the date Martin Armstrong gives for the start of massive depopulation. The war in Ukraine 100% will be to WWIII what the 2nd Sino-Japanese War is to the Pacific War – Expansionism by regional powers becoming the obstacle to an emergent global order that is to be neutralized at the first possible opportunity. As history goes, aircraft carriers left the harbor and battleships sat duck…
In the spirit of developing a more right-hemisphere approach to living I am trying to focus more on “experience” and less on theory or philosophizing.
Our society massively undervalues “experience for it’s own sake”, and yet that is surely the very “trunk” of the tree of life – besides, the ultimate purpose of abstract thinking is to let us see beyond itself and return us once more to the primacy of experience 🙂
Thought overcomes thought.
So I am once more focusing on novels – and especially, big, fat, Victorian novels, large volumes with musty yellowed pages that feel good in the hand and smell of old wood – a sensual experience as much as an intellectual one.
I shall read them without any theorizing whatsoever but purely for the experience of being lost in these strange worlds, like I did when I was a child. I shall delight in the uselessly ornate and luxuriant language that serves no utilitarian purpose whatsoever, and I shall enjoy the old fashioned values and mores.
So to that end I just ordered a physical copy of Charles Dickens David Copperfield, a massive musty old time if ever there was one. I have never yet finished a Dickens book but I think I have a different attitude now.
And based on songbird and Barbarossa’s discussion of Kipling’s Captains Courageous, I ordered that too.
Steve Sailer says on his blog that no one reads novels anymore, because they are “frivolous”, but Steve is a typical left-hemisphere sick modern, and his attitude exemplifies the modern downgrading of experience.
I’m excited to dive into it!
——————-
Television has been getting rather stale of late – I can’t think of anything interesting to watch lately, and as soon as I start a show I lose interest.
A large majority of modern shows seem to actively celebrate psychopathy, which is very interesting. I believe the trend started with Breaking Bad, which was brilliant TV, but I did not realize at the time that this signalled a major shift in the cultural landscape that was going to be more permanent.
While I thoroughly enjoyed Breaking Bad, these days I actively avoid this weird celebration of psychopathy our culture seems to have devolved into. I have no doubt it’s spiritually harmful to be exposed too much to that sort of thing.
I’m rewatching all the old episodes of Star Trek the Next Generation, which I loved as a child. I find it generally quite relaxing and enjoyable. The values are generally old fashioned and wholesome and the atmosphere very optimistic and positive. And I find the show especially in the later seasons to have a pleasantly slow pace, an air of quiet and intelligent brooding that avoids being splashy, and a sense of cosmic mystery despite being scientific. And Patrick Stewart is infinitely fun to watch 🙂
I know songbird thinks TNG to be deplorably Woke, or preparatory to Woke, but as a whole I can’t say I really agree 🙂
I believe my favorite would be "Boobytrap."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booby_Trap_(Star_Trek%3A_The_Next_Generation)
It is subversive on multiple levels, including the ending. Though, one of the things that I appreciated about it was that I felt like it had a genuine connection to the past. (I know that technically there are lots of episodes with a connection to the past, but somehow this is the one that resonated the most with me.)Replies: @AaronB
As soon as this year (but certainly not the ship sinking), and as late as 2025 - the date Martin Armstrong gives for the start of massive depopulation. The war in Ukraine 100% will be to WWIII what the 2nd Sino-Japanese War is to the Pacific War - Expansionism by regional powers becoming the obstacle to an emergent global order that is to be neutralized at the first possible opportunity. As history goes, aircraft carriers left the harbor and battleships sat duck...Replies: @Wokechoke
It’s a a Royal Oak or a Graf Spee though. Pearl Harbor it doesn’t need to be, Russia will retaliate with area bombing.
Fixed that for you.
Here's a fact, Mr. Peaceman--I voted for Trump twice and hope to make it thrice. He played ball with Israel but he drew the line at starting new wars for them. That's largely why he isn't president right now. You can try to change the subject, but you can't succeed. Israel wanted regime change in Syria. As a group, Jews hate Putin. The Jewish State is certainly not the exception.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
ROTFLMAO
Apparently the #NeverTrump IffenBot (v2) has rolled out. Same Low-IQ, Yahoo lying with slightly different packaging.
PEACE 😇
Shalom, you alter kaker you.Replies: @iffen
Remember Russiagate? Is it surprising they are paranoid?
They have stuff we need. The end of cheap Russian gas to Europe will put a permanent brake on the economy.
All we had to do was Finlandise Ukraine, but the Neocons have their own agenda and an army of useful idiots to back them up.
P.S. The site looks legit.
This war is in the brainchild of Satan, AKA Victoria Nuland. Do yo really wan to be a Nuland fanboy?Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death
Should adress this to the real Nuland fanboy named Putin, who did all he could exactly the way she wanted 😉
That a lying fucking asshole like you signs off with “Peace” says it all.
Shalom, you alter kaker you.
It does not acknowledge concepts such as lying.
Russia has 350 jets left. They did try using them. They lost 11 in two days to anti aircraft missiles. IF they fly high S300 and BUKs can see them. If they fly low various MANPADs can hit them. They no longer fly over Ukrainian positions. The army, naval infantry, guards, VDV were fully committed to the war. The available navy has been put in harms way. The airforce is being kept back.
In all cases Russia is using a non replenishable stock of equipment. Presumably the army and navy don't matter because in a war with NATO tactical nukes would be used instead. However, a war with NATO would be an airwar. To deliver and defend against tactical nukes aircraft will be needed. The argument "Russia is not using its best" fails with the army and navy but with the airforce there may be a case.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Dmitry
From what I briefly read about the topic, with superficial understanding.
Kalibr (a guided cruise missile, first pioneered in Sverdlovsk 1982), costs over \$1,2 million each and production in Russia before sanctions was about 2-3 per week.
It could destroy fixed targets according to satellite guidance. It could destroy things contain weapons, like warehouse or factories. But it would depend on intelligence about the location of the target. It doesn’t destroy moving targets.
Iskander would have the same ability, but it is far more expensive, supply of the weapon even more limited. It was cost-effective as designed for tactical nuclear warheads, not conventional bombing.
Russian air force doesn’t have targeting pods, to allow use of guided weapons against moving targets. There are air-launched cruise missiles like “Kh-101” for destroying fixed targets. https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/ukraine-russias-air-launched-cruise-missiles-coming-up-short
A lot of the bombing in Ukraine is using unguided bombs. They are bombing Ukraine with FAB-500 bombs (which were pioneered in 1954). http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/air-bombs/fab-500-m-62/
This kind of bombing from smaller range with unguided weapons, also exposes planes to risk of being attacked from the ground.
–
With those limitations said, Ukraine are not necessarily very careful. There are reports their factories have been located by media reports (their factory for repairing tanks, was destroyed yesterday).
There are reports tonight, one of Ukraine’s transport planes containing Western supplies, was destroyed while flying. https://ria.ru/20220416/samolet-1783914498.html
It takes into account Glonass positioning, wind, humidity, etc, guides the weapons platform to the point of release, and releases the bomb load automatically.Replies: @Dmitry
Alexei Kudrin (Finance Minister 2000-2011 in Russia), is in Israel, likely to apply for citizenship before returning to Russia (https://www.vesty.co.il/main/article/hyezsn1vc). This is a kind of sanctions avoiding game, which Israel hasn’t closed yet. It’s not good for Israel reputation, to allow this, but they continue to accept the politicians and oligarchs (Mikhail Prokhorov last month).
Less seriously, Morgenshtern is qualified for Israeli citizenship (his father is a Bashkir, while his mother has Jewish roots). https://www.cosmo.ru/stars/news/08-04-2022/morgenshtern-obnaruzhil-u-sebya-evreyskie-korni-i-oformlyaet-grazhdanstvo-izrailya/
Israel should be welcome him, as he is not a Minister of Finance, just a bad rapper and good satirist. There is nothing related to sanctions. But I don’t see he would have much audience in Israel. Generation Z Israeli people, are not many of them, going to pay to listen to Russian pop singers/satirists.
–
On another topic, I think Russian businessmen are a lot richer than Forbes knows. For example, just Jersey is removing \$7 billion of Abramovich assets. https://news.sky.com/story/jersey-seizes-7bn-in-assets-linked-to-roman-abramovich-12589752
You have a valid point that we have more physical power than ever before, which should translate into the freedom to live a happier life. That, after all, is the great promise of modernity, really.
But does it? It really depends on your values and what sort of lifestyle one most values. For myself, the vastly expanded powers of the modern world have nevertheless created a lifestyle and physical reality that greatly restrict my ability to live the life I would truly want. The world is far uglier and less interesting on every level than it can and should be.
Fascinating and complex ancient human cultures are being destroyed. Huge swathes of the worlds wilderness are also being destroyed. Cities and towns have become ugly and soulless.
The beauty and wonder of the world and it's human inhabitants has been massively degraded.
And considering the extremely poor mental health increasingly afflicting the population of the developed world, I am certainly not alone.
Perhaps vastly expanded powers aren't the key to happiness, as so many myths and legends insist on warning us :)
Now, you say that social pressure isn't an absolute barrier to living an alternative lifestyle - and that's true, but if we are being realistic about human nature as it is I think we have to admit that the social environment plays a huge role in circumscribing our choices.
But you make a good point that choice still exists, even if it has to be wrested from society - so my goal is much less to "transform" society than to win social support and approval for alternative lifestyles, and a kind of "spiritual infrastructure" that helps young people find this alternative path.
In traditional China and India, most people lived ordinary lives, but leaving city life behind and abandoning the rat race was an honored and socially validated choice that had a lot of spiritual infrastructure to support it.
So that needs to be restored to our society, I think.
But I think there is a more fundamental point to be made here. If a huge - and perhaps even the decisive - factor in being happy is the correct use of our minds and the correct mental and emotional relationship to the external world, then the "metaphysics" undergirding modern life, with it's belief that mathematical certainty alone is the correct relationship to reality, leads to perhaps the most unhappy generation to have ever lived :) I don't see the task as "persuasion" which suggests force. Rather, I see it as simply formulating an alternative ideal and "inviting" others to consider it.
Many people today seem to suffer greatly from poor mental health in modern society without being aware there are alternatives. Well, I would only want those who are genuinely unsatisfied with modernity and who will genuinely become significantly healthier and happier living an alternative life to do so - and I would "invite" them to consider it, and not "convince" them :)
It's obviously unfair for such people to remain "economic captives" in a system designed for the benefit of those who still think the point of life is to make money and acquire things - and moreover, I hold out hope that even such benighted people will at least somewhat see the light after they see people flourishing who live opposite to them :)
Not to mention, the "economic lifestyle" of these mainstream people are not in themselves neutral, but actively contribute to an uglier and worse world.
So on every level I think it would be a positive thing for everyone.
I don't believe there can be such "radical seperation" between those of us who pursue nature and the mainstream which seeks wealth and power - part of the "metaphysic" of nature-love, is the insight that we are all connected in a larger organic whole, and what goes on in one place affects everything.
So I think we have a spiritual duty to not "leave others behind" but work towards their salvation as well :) Well said :)Replies: @Barbarossa, @Grahamsno(G64), @Mikel
This is basically the approach I am taking with my own children. We live a fairly unconventional life in many ways, although our goals and ideals would have been very common in the not so distant past. I’m quite aware that I have no power to force my children to follow in my footsteps, and they may even fully reject what I stand for. My intent is instead to formulate and demonstrate an alternative ethos to the dominant modern one and to let that stand on it’s own merits.
This puts quite a bit of responsibility on my wife and I since very much depends on whether we live up to our own hype and standards. Hypocrisy will be easily detected and discredit much of what we are attempting to instill. There can be no dragging them into it, they will either embrace it for themselves or not. My oldest used to give us more guff about our minimal tech use and strict controls on it for the kids, but now that she is seeing some of the neurotic, unhealthy, and anxiety ridden behavior of some of her tech immersed cousins she increasingly sees that there is a valid point to our guardrails.
As you say, it is all about presenting an alternative. The way things seem to be increasingly headed I think many of those alternatives speak for themselves. I certainly see more and more people looking for an exit ramp.
According to the late Academician Zaliznyak, in the 14th century, there was no difference in how people spoke in Kyiv and in Moscow.
Novgorod was a different matter even in the 10th century.
So, looking for some ancient divisions between Russian or Ukrainian speakers is hardly historical
Amphibious invasion of Taiwan for occupation by China, is probably not very possible. There are a lot of academic papers about this topic you can see from the 1990s, including written by professors of geography.
It seems like a lot of hype on this issue, which China would try only as a kind of suicidal policy, and they have a collective leadership there who you would expect should not be so irrational
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why-china-cannot-invade-taiwan/
A lot of the bombing in Ukraine is using unguided bombs. They are bombing Ukraine with FAB-500 bombs (which were pioneered in 1954). http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/air-bombs/fab-500-m-62/ This kind of bombing from smaller range with unguided weapons, also exposes planes to risk of being attacked from the ground. - With those limitations said, Ukraine are not necessarily very careful. There are reports their factories have been located by media reports (their factory for repairing tanks, was destroyed yesterday). There are reports tonight, one of Ukraine's transport planes containing Western supplies, was destroyed while flying. https://ria.ru/20220416/samolet-1783914498.htmlReplies: @siberiancat
The use of iron bombs goes with the relatively new bombing sight called СВП-24
It takes into account Glonass positioning, wind, humidity, etc, guides the weapons platform to the point of release, and releases the bomb load automatically.
This puts quite a bit of responsibility on my wife and I since very much depends on whether we live up to our own hype and standards. Hypocrisy will be easily detected and discredit much of what we are attempting to instill. There can be no dragging them into it, they will either embrace it for themselves or not. My oldest used to give us more guff about our minimal tech use and strict controls on it for the kids, but now that she is seeing some of the neurotic, unhealthy, and anxiety ridden behavior of some of her tech immersed cousins she increasingly sees that there is a valid point to our guardrails.
As you say, it is all about presenting an alternative. The way things seem to be increasingly headed I think many of those alternatives speak for themselves. I certainly see more and more people looking for an exit ramp.Replies: @AaronB
Yes, this is by far the best way to go about it.
Ultimately, “arguments” aren’t particularly effective. But everyone can see who is flourishing and happy and who isn’t.
There is a fascinating book I’m reading now about the spread of early Christianity. Even though evangelizing later became a very big part of Christianity, in the early years in the Roman Empire this was not so. Evangelizing was deemphasized.
Instead, Christianity spread because it offered a visibly healthier and happier way to live than late-decadent Paganism with it’s sterile rationalism. Christians lived in a way that was completely against the mainstream of their time, and this provoked curiosity and interest.
As you say, many people today are beginning to see that something is very wrong with modern life, but there are still also many people who believe the solution to this is to simply do more of what the modern world has been doing – more control, more technology, more sterile rationality, more attempts to rebel against nature – and who are not yet ready to heed the message of an alternative lifestyle even when they see it with their own eyes.
There are even many who are so committed to the current system, that they will deny visibly healthier alternatives and even seek to crush them, unfortunately.
So assuming our culture is broadly speaking tracing the same arc as the Greco-Roman world (with some notable features that are unique), having embraced their hyper-rationality, I believe we have to go a little bit deeper into late-modern decadence before large numbers of people can be open to alternatives.
But even today, right now, many people are open to this message.
This is really already true for me when I talk to people heavily submerged in social media. We have virtually nothing in common, no shared conceptual framework or experience. It's very disconcerting how quickly that has emerged as common, since even 10 years ago it was much less so.
I'm not really sure where that is headed along with all other sharp divergences in our body politic. So many fundamental differences have piled up that it seems hard to imagine them ever coming to an sort of consensus.
Out of curiosity, if you don't me asking, what do the people around you in the Big Apple make of you? I would expect that there would be some blank incomprehension if you got into any of these topics at the workplace!Replies: @AaronB
In Ukraine? Nothing new.
Fixed that for you.
Here's a fact, Mr. Peaceman--I voted for Trump twice and hope to make it thrice. He played ball with Israel but he drew the line at starting new wars for them. That's largely why he isn't president right now. You can try to change the subject, but you can't succeed. Israel wanted regime change in Syria. As a group, Jews hate Putin. The Jewish State is certainly not the exception.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
There are 2 groups of Jews, Secular and Reformed Jews who are like extreme versions of secularized bourgeois Christians without the stupid and honest baggage, and Orthodox Jews who are like the Amish without the farming. One of them are cosmopolitan and one observant, one Liberal and one TradCon, one with a crashing fertility and one with a boom fertility.
https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/AIA2011092202-chart1.png
While Israel also has a split, it is quite different. The "secularized bourgeois" Jews of Israel are strongly nationalist, believe in security & military defense, etc...
The only group in Israel that even vaguely resembles the American Left is Labor/Gesher. In 2019 they only managed to capture 6 of 120 seats (~5% of the population).
https://theglobepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Israeli-elections.jpg
Indigenous Palestinian Jews view Russia with a national security perspective. Iran is an existential threat. Ukraine is not. Given Russia's presence in Syria, why would Palestinian Jews blow up that relationship by backing Zelensky?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2011092202/Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
The conundrum that is BoJo….
The latest plan from the British PM sounds pretty good. (1)
The policy makes obvious sense. It is much like Trump’s successful Remain in Mexico initiative.
The question becomes, “Will BoJo (and his administration) follow through?”
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://rmx.news/united-kingdom/britain-will-send-channel-migrants-to-rwanda/
This is a question for either AP or Hack.
Euros of relatively recent times, and being sometimes in nearly impossible circumstances, seem all too often to fight the wrong wars. For instance, in the case of the US Civil War and at a cost of 700,000 lives, the chattel slavery of the US South was merely replaced with the US North’s even more malignant and destructive manifestation of slavery, wage slavery, ie specifically the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, which is quite simply chattel slavery and it’s trade monetized (that is the horrid genocidal system was distilled down to it’s financial essence whilst profits were maximized).
Therefore, I think when violence became inevitable in the Spring of 1861 that, rather than the guns being turned upon each other, they should have been turned upon slave owners in the South, and upon their corresponding same ilk in the US North, ie the hirers on, promoters of, and exploiters of the wage slaves (ie ‘immigrants’) and the ‘labor contractors’ who were ‘importing’ them in by diktat, both groups North and South driven by the same profound moral cause to do anything, but anything (God forbid!) than pay the prevailing real time local rates for labor, generally to their own people, and force them to stop their self destructive peoplehood destroying practices. No more chattel slavery, no more wage slavery, ie no more so called cheap labor/mass immigration. Self determination could then have been allowed for those peoples desiring it in the United States.
That would have been a true abolition of slavery unlike the fraudulent one the world was presented with in the 19th century. That’s also the war against slavery, the essence of which is the systematic theft of the value of an individual’s labor, which should have been fought, but wasn’t. Of course, after the war, people were too spent to fight the war that should have been fought.
After this current war is over, and provided Ukraine has retained at least some of it’s sovereignty, what will the Ukranian people do when it’s own government attempts to deliberately genocide (in the truest sense of the word) the Ukranian people by forcing it to adopt wage slavery, ie the cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern ‘progressive’ Multi-cultural society?
Will the Ukranian people have enough strength left after fighting this war to succesfully resist?
Still, it is interesting to note that when Perry steamed into Edo Bay with his cannon pointing at samurai, that was in 1853, years before the Civil War.
Not that it was necessarily bad for the Japanese. It may have been the kick in the pants that they needed.Replies: @S
Yeah, but “liberal” Jews are still overwhelmingly Zionists and guided first and foremost by “Is it good for the Jews?”–with some exceptions. And it seems like there are distinctly different types of Orthodox Jews, too.
What I expect is a continuing bifurcation. Part of the population will continue the modern priorities of increasing technological immersion coupled with peak consumerism while another segment will decouple more from that path and live in an intentionally less technological and control based reality. These two will have less and less in common and will truly live in alternate universes.
This is really already true for me when I talk to people heavily submerged in social media. We have virtually nothing in common, no shared conceptual framework or experience. It’s very disconcerting how quickly that has emerged as common, since even 10 years ago it was much less so.
I’m not really sure where that is headed along with all other sharp divergences in our body politic. So many fundamental differences have piled up that it seems hard to imagine them ever coming to an sort of consensus.
Out of curiosity, if you don’t me asking, what do the people around you in the Big Apple make of you? I would expect that there would be some blank incomprehension if you got into any of these topics at the workplace!
That I was prepared for. There is on the whole an active hostility and opposition to my way of thinking - and among several of my friends and acquaintances, a concerted and aggressive effort to "pull me back in" towards materialism, a life centred on money, and an obsession with physical survival.
It was this experience that led me to finally give credence to the old idea of "spiritual warfare". I thought my position would be seen as eccentric, perhaps absurd, but I would be regarded as essentially innocuous and unthreatening.
After all, if I want less money and have less ambition, there is less competition.
Boy was I wrong. It seems certain people are motivated to destroy my attitude to life even if by it's very nature it lessens competition for them. This kind of "irrational" attack, I cannot help feel, suggests the battle is spiritual.
There is another way my alternative attitude gets me into trouble - if you are no longer committed to modern civilization and have less ambition, you will stand out starkly for not being "serious" about work even if you are diligent and competent at your job, as the modern mythology says that nothing is more important than economic production, and one attitude must reflect this.
No longer being obsessed with survival, my easy going and "light hearted" attitude towards life has also earned me surprising enmity and severe backlash in NY. Fear of death is also a sacred value to modern society, and to not have an appropriately serious and "heavy" provokes spiritual attack, I now see.
Well, the picture is not wholly bad :)
There are some people who have a certain amount of sympathy and understanding for my position.
But on the whole the spiritual life cannot be well lived in one of the major ideological centers of modernity.Replies: @Barbarossa
In America, and presumably Europe, your summary is sound. Here is an indicative U.S. poll for New York (from 2011): (1)
While Israel also has a split, it is quite different. The “secularized bourgeois” Jews of Israel are strongly nationalist, believe in security & military defense, etc…
The only group in Israel that even vaguely resembles the American Left is Labor/Gesher. In 2019 they only managed to capture 6 of 120 seats (~5% of the population).
Indigenous Palestinian Jews view Russia with a national security perspective. Iran is an existential threat. Ukraine is not. Given Russia’s presence in Syria, why would Palestinian Jews blow up that relationship by backing Zelensky?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2011092202/
Meanwhile an air convoy is leaving Moscow for Tehran to prepare for the flare-up again in Palestine.
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1515056960806207499
Orthodox Jews' world is the next one, not this one where geopolitics divide loyalties. Some of them don't want Israel to exist because Israel existing means the End Times, but most of them are just happy to have a spot under the sun.
The only indigenous Palestinean Jews are Mizrahim. All else are practically immigrants after 2k years of "exile". Deeply ironical to see you refering the settler colony of Jews "Palestine".Replies: @Yahya, @A123, @LondonBob
This is really already true for me when I talk to people heavily submerged in social media. We have virtually nothing in common, no shared conceptual framework or experience. It's very disconcerting how quickly that has emerged as common, since even 10 years ago it was much less so.
I'm not really sure where that is headed along with all other sharp divergences in our body politic. So many fundamental differences have piled up that it seems hard to imagine them ever coming to an sort of consensus.
Out of curiosity, if you don't me asking, what do the people around you in the Big Apple make of you? I would expect that there would be some blank incomprehension if you got into any of these topics at the workplace!Replies: @AaronB
It’s more than blank incomprehension 🙂
That I was prepared for. There is on the whole an active hostility and opposition to my way of thinking – and among several of my friends and acquaintances, a concerted and aggressive effort to “pull me back in” towards materialism, a life centred on money, and an obsession with physical survival.
It was this experience that led me to finally give credence to the old idea of “spiritual warfare”. I thought my position would be seen as eccentric, perhaps absurd, but I would be regarded as essentially innocuous and unthreatening.
After all, if I want less money and have less ambition, there is less competition.
Boy was I wrong. It seems certain people are motivated to destroy my attitude to life even if by it’s very nature it lessens competition for them. This kind of “irrational” attack, I cannot help feel, suggests the battle is spiritual.
There is another way my alternative attitude gets me into trouble – if you are no longer committed to modern civilization and have less ambition, you will stand out starkly for not being “serious” about work even if you are diligent and competent at your job, as the modern mythology says that nothing is more important than economic production, and one attitude must reflect this.
No longer being obsessed with survival, my easy going and “light hearted” attitude towards life has also earned me surprising enmity and severe backlash in NY. Fear of death is also a sacred value to modern society, and to not have an appropriately serious and “heavy” provokes spiritual attack, I now see.
Well, the picture is not wholly bad 🙂
There are some people who have a certain amount of sympathy and understanding for my position.
But on the whole the spiritual life cannot be well lived in one of the major ideological centers of modernity.
To share an amusing story...When my wife and I were buying our land and planning our initial little cabin, we were living in what was basically an ex-urb sort of area where I worked in a custom stair shop. I was probably the oddest person there, doing things like sitting at lunch with a small personal carving project while they talked about sports.
When I explained to some of them how we were going to build this tiny cabin in the woods, but didn't have money initially for things like plumbing or electrical they were politely bemused. However, the lack of plumbing, which was more my concern, got no mention while the lack of electricity was a major sticking point, though again not for any of the reasons I might have guessed.
The incredulous question came, "How are you going to watch TV?" When I explained that I wasn't going to be watching any TV, the second incredulous question arose. "Then what are you going to DO?" I told them I would probably not be lacking for things to do and in any case there are always books.
I always found that response very funny, since TV was probably dead last of the potential issues on my mind. In the end I was glad to be out of that area. I got along fine with most people, but I was very much the oddball! On second thought, I might still be an oddball, I just live in area now with a preponderance of oddballs.
Our society massively undervalues "experience for it's own sake", and yet that is surely the very "trunk" of the tree of life - besides, the ultimate purpose of abstract thinking is to let us see beyond itself and return us once more to the primacy of experience :)
Thought overcomes thought.
So I am once more focusing on novels - and especially, big, fat, Victorian novels, large volumes with musty yellowed pages that feel good in the hand and smell of old wood - a sensual experience as much as an intellectual one.
I shall read them without any theorizing whatsoever but purely for the experience of being lost in these strange worlds, like I did when I was a child. I shall delight in the uselessly ornate and luxuriant language that serves no utilitarian purpose whatsoever, and I shall enjoy the old fashioned values and mores.
So to that end I just ordered a physical copy of Charles Dickens David Copperfield, a massive musty old time if ever there was one. I have never yet finished a Dickens book but I think I have a different attitude now.
And based on songbird and Barbarossa's discussion of Kipling's Captains Courageous, I ordered that too.
Steve Sailer says on his blog that no one reads novels anymore, because they are "frivolous", but Steve is a typical left-hemisphere sick modern, and his attitude exemplifies the modern downgrading of experience.
I'm excited to dive into it!
-------------------
Television has been getting rather stale of late - I can't think of anything interesting to watch lately, and as soon as I start a show I lose interest.
A large majority of modern shows seem to actively celebrate psychopathy, which is very interesting. I believe the trend started with Breaking Bad, which was brilliant TV, but I did not realize at the time that this signalled a major shift in the cultural landscape that was going to be more permanent.
While I thoroughly enjoyed Breaking Bad, these days I actively avoid this weird celebration of psychopathy our culture seems to have devolved into. I have no doubt it's spiritually harmful to be exposed too much to that sort of thing.
I'm rewatching all the old episodes of Star Trek the Next Generation, which I loved as a child. I find it generally quite relaxing and enjoyable. The values are generally old fashioned and wholesome and the atmosphere very optimistic and positive. And I find the show especially in the later seasons to have a pleasantly slow pace, an air of quiet and intelligent brooding that avoids being splashy, and a sense of cosmic mystery despite being scientific. And Patrick Stewart is infinitely fun to watch :)
I know songbird thinks TNG to be deplorably Woke, or preparatory to Woke, but as a whole I can't say I really agree :)Replies: @songbird
Do you have a favorite episode? I think you already mentioned that one where Picard gets stabbed in the heart, as a youth.
I believe my favorite would be “Boobytrap.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booby_Trap_(Star_Trek%3A_The_Next_Generation)
It is subversive on multiple levels, including the ending. Though, one of the things that I appreciated about it was that I felt like it had a genuine connection to the past. (I know that technically there are lots of episodes with a connection to the past, but somehow this is the one that resonated the most with me.)
I believe my favorite would be "Boobytrap."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booby_Trap_(Star_Trek%3A_The_Next_Generation)
It is subversive on multiple levels, including the ending. Though, one of the things that I appreciated about it was that I felt like it had a genuine connection to the past. (I know that technically there are lots of episodes with a connection to the past, but somehow this is the one that resonated the most with me.)Replies: @AaronB
I don’t know that I have a favorite episode, songbird, but recently I particularly enjoyed the episodes where the crew goes back to 19th century San Francisco and encounter Mark Twain, who they later bring to the 24th century.
It was good fun! I even forgave the scene where Troy tells Twain that science has cured all social wills lol 🙂
I’m now watching the one where Professor Moriarty comes out of the holodeck alive, which I’m enjoying.
Booby trap is a great one too – and for a show rooted in the marvels of science, it’s message that human intuition is superior is surely unusual and refreshing.
The whole show seems to have a straightforward innocence and optimism that I don’t think you’d find today in our terribly clever and ironic shows.
If I had to choose a favorite, maybe it would be the one where Picard loses his identity and lives out his life on a primitive planet and becomes an old and wizened man, with scenes of him playing a flute under the stars and being strangely nostalgic about them without knowing why. That episode was poetic and poignant.
I am getting a bit sentimental, but another one I liked is the one where Riker does the exchange on a Klingon ship. I think it is great how it acknowledges different cultures and loyalties.
While I dislike the wokeness of TNG, I really appreciated how, for the most part, it was not a serial and most episodes could be judged on their own merits, or even given their own writers.
I was talking about the mind, not the universe. When talking about the mind, free will is generally contrasted with “determinism,” which is the sense I was using the term.
For me, the issue goes deeper than that though. It doesn’t help me much to know that my decisions were not completely deterministic, but still nonetheless products of purely natural processes. In other words, if quantum events are able to influence or produce mental events, so what? That’s not “me” doing anything; it’s just something happening to me. I need to believe that there is a ‘willing subject’ – a subject that wills; essentially, that there is a me, a self, that actually exists.
I suppose your Buddhist commitments would put you at odds with the notion that a self exists, that being one of the illusions that good living requires us to rid ourselves of. Personally, I’ve never understood how that helps me to live better at all. That’s not to say I haven’t “tried it on for size.” Not once that I’ve flirted with it have I ever felt, “Phew, I don’t really exist, what a relief. That really takes a load off my mind!” Not even an inkling of such feelings. If there has ever been a “skepticism to be skeptical of,” for me this is it.
I am concerned enough about the nuclear-fallout scenario to have acquired a bottle of potassium iodide pills. My veterinarian, a serious woman, asked me for some of the pills, for herself and her dog. So that makes two of us concerned at the level of KI pills. But I would not say that a worldwide nuclear exchange “will” occur. I would say “might well.” 40% or so.
I'd put this at 30% right now and 75% when Russia and Nato start shooting each other.
People often say that the Civil War was when the US took a more imperial turn. It was a very destructive war, and I can appreciate the dark side of it all, including its egalitarian legacy and the effective abolition of states’ rights.
Still, it is interesting to note that when Perry steamed into Edo Bay with his cannon pointing at samurai, that was in 1853, years before the Civil War.
Not that it was necessarily bad for the Japanese. It may have been the kick in the pants that they needed.
In this view, Lincoln was a Julius Caesar who had 'crossed the Rubicon' with his centralization of government power, and John Wilkes Booth his Brutus. Accordingly, soon after the 1865 Lincoln assasination, the US would have it's own Varus ('Varus, Give me back my three legions!). [See the 'comments' link below under 'More' for just who the American Varus was.]
The point by point close parallels between the history of the United States and that of ancient Republican and Imperial Rome are downright uncanny. I would have left Japan, China, and Korea, alone. It was their prerogative to be left alone, and learn (or not learn) about the outside world, at their own discretion and pace. In many ways as peoples they were being the ideal 'global citizen' with their live and let live philosophy.
It's interesting that you should mention 1853, Japan, and early signs of US imperial ambition. That was the very same year a now very obscure (though at the time of it's initial publication widely distributed and reviewed) book was published in the US entitled The New Rome. The book specifically references the then ongoing 1853 Perry expedition to Japan. [See excerpt and link below]
According to it, hordes of US businessmen are to invade China, and many millions of Chinese will be taken to the US to be exploited as wage slaves (ie so called 'cheap labor').
The New Rome purports to be a future history of the world. It claims that a yet to be formed US/UK united front will move to take over the world by first conquering continental Europe's center of power, ie Germany, thereby unleashing a 'world's war' upon the Earth. Immediately afterwards this united front will move against Russia.
Incredibly, bearing in mind it's mid 19th century publication date, the book claims it will be the US air force which will be instrumental in the future defeat of Russia.
For it's remarkable prescience, The New Rome is well worth the time spent to read. https://www.unz.com/pescobar/do-you-want-a-war-between-russia-and-nato/#comment-5172335
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/n15/mode/2up
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/76/mode/2upReplies: @S
In regards to my just previous post (#91) above, I should add that in the 19th century most of the ingredients for our modern progressive multicultural society were there then within the Anglosphere, and they were a lot more honest in their way about things at the time. [They hadn’t yet realized the power of Pavlovian conditioning, ie positive reinforcement, via the corporate mass media.]
For instance, in my post archives you can find an 1851 London Times editorial which extols the wonders of mass immigration for the Irish people as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’) to the United States, and then casually adds that this enmasse predation will directly result in the Irish people being ‘known no more’ as a people, and that the ideal replacement people in Ireland will be one that is ‘more mixed, more docile’ and ‘which can submit to a master’.
From that same Famine era (1847-50) the Irish entirely concurred with the Times assessment about the genocidal effects upon them of the cheap labor/mass immigration system (see link to 1847 Spectator article ‘Extermination and Vengeance’ below). Hence the Irish term for this predation was ‘extermination’, as they (quite correctly) saw it as a genocidal act of hostility towards them, and not a ‘helping hand’. ‘Vengeance’, as outlined in the article, refers to the fact that members of the British aristocracy in Ireland were being shot for promoting the cheap labor/mass immigration scheme as good for the Irish people.
With results like that, one can see why they went from then freely acknowledging the existence of race, to today denouncing it’s very existance with an anti-race campaign euphemistically referred to as ‘anti-racism’.
When self declared ‘progressives’ go on about ‘genocide’, their unhealthy obsession with the destruction/genocide of races by ‘mixing’ them away manifesting itself by accusing others continuously of ‘racism’, and ‘hate’, they are projecting.
Same with the promotion of drug use at gun point in the Opium wars, which created their own resistance, the ulterior motive of which may have been to reduce the Chinese people to a state where they, like the Irish, could be preyed upon enmasse as wage slaves (ie cheap labor), of which they have indeed reaped a rich harvest to this very day. It’s much more effective to promote drug use as ‘hip’, ‘cool, and ‘with it’, as was done in the 1960’s.
When self declared ‘progressives’ go on about ‘genocide’, ‘racism’ and ‘hate’, they are projecting upon others the results of their own unhealthy obsession with the destruction/genocide of races by ‘mixing’ them away.
http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance
https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/AIA2011092202-chart1.png
While Israel also has a split, it is quite different. The "secularized bourgeois" Jews of Israel are strongly nationalist, believe in security & military defense, etc...
The only group in Israel that even vaguely resembles the American Left is Labor/Gesher. In 2019 they only managed to capture 6 of 120 seats (~5% of the population).
https://theglobepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Israeli-elections.jpg
Indigenous Palestinian Jews view Russia with a national security perspective. Iran is an existential threat. Ukraine is not. Given Russia's presence in Syria, why would Palestinian Jews blow up that relationship by backing Zelensky?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2011092202/Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
Israel wants to play both sides in the place they are at as America’s sole ally, like China. They are on the side of Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, while China wants resources from Russia and markets from the rest of the world. Israel hopes for Russia’s hand to be lifted from Syria and China for Central Asia.
Meanwhile an air convoy is leaving Moscow for Tehran to prepare for the flare-up again in Palestine.
Orthodox Jews’ world is the next one, not this one where geopolitics divide loyalties. Some of them don’t want Israel to exist because Israel existing means the End Times, but most of them are just happy to have a spot under the sun.
The only indigenous Palestinean Jews are Mizrahim. All else are practically immigrants after 2k years of “exile”. Deeply ironical to see you refering the settler colony of Jews “Palestine”.
* Dark Blue = Eastern Euroepan Hunter Gatherer
* Light Blue = Levant_Neolithic
* Green = Iran_Neolithic
* Red = Sub-Saharan
A PCA of genetic distance:https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F44aa9fd5-7fe0-4ad2-ad3c-5c8fd056817c_1042x688.jpegReplies: @iffen
__________(1) https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/09/israel-india-russia-narendra-modi-benjamin-netanyahu-phalcon.html All religious Jews have a claim on the indigenous religious home land of Judaism in Judea (a.k.a. Palestine). It is a religious matter, not an ethnic one. Muhammad the Colonial Prophet led his Jihadist Settlers to Palestine and stole Infidel land ~1,400 years ago. I am quite un-ironically suggesting that the non-indigenous religion of Islam should decolonize from their settlements and return stolen Infidel lands.
Armchair Warlord on twitter has written a lot about how the Ukraine and NATO are running out of ammunition. I assume Russia has been stockpiling for a long time. We saw in Libya how quickly ammunition ran out and what NATO is sending is pretty much useless gear.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1514824311177064448?s=20&t=gDxvyf6MDk4-HAUneE6JwAReplies: @A123, @Barbarossa
Probably the collective unconsciousness is having a fun time with the generic memories of Revelations in the West and Kali Yuga in the East.
I’d put this at 30% right now and 75% when Russia and Nato start shooting each other.
For me, the issue goes deeper than that though. It doesn't help me much to know that my decisions were not completely deterministic, but still nonetheless products of purely natural processes. In other words, if quantum events are able to influence or produce mental events, so what? That's not "me" doing anything; it's just something happening to me. I need to believe that there is a 'willing subject' - a subject that wills; essentially, that there is a me, a self, that actually exists.
I suppose your Buddhist commitments would put you at odds with the notion that a self exists, that being one of the illusions that good living requires us to rid ourselves of. Personally, I've never understood how that helps me to live better at all. That's not to say I haven't "tried it on for size." Not once that I've flirted with it have I ever felt, "Phew, I don't really exist, what a relief. That really takes a load off my mind!" Not even an inkling of such feelings. If there has ever been a "skepticism to be skeptical of," for me this is it.Replies: @AaronB
So quantum mechanics says the behavior of a particle is not entirely determined by any force – there is simply an element of what appears to be “choice” in the matter 🙂
So it would seem that not just human beings, but what we generally call “matter” behaves in a manner not entirely determined by any force.
As for Buddhism, the idea of “no self” is subtle but once you understand it you realize popular misconceptions about it are not accurate.
Obviously we have a self – in a sense nothing is more obvious to us. The idea of no-self simply means we are connected on a deep level to everything else in the universe. That we do not exist “independently”.
To understand how this truth helps us live better, we can contrast it with the diametrically opposite view of modernity; we are isolated and independent individual entities, cut off from the rest of life.
This modern view leads to fear of death, sees everything else as threatening to us, and makes us feel alienated and estranged from the universe.
To see our deep underlying connection to everything means to realize we cannot die – everything is an expression of the underlying energy of the universe, and death is just transformation.
We also feel deeply at home in the universe and with intimate connections to everything else – we are part of a larger whole and redeemed in it.
So the Buddhist view here leads to light hearted cheerfulness as death loses its sting, to a sense of love and cooperation with the rest of life and lessening of anxious competition, and a deep sense of at-homeness in the universe and a sense of it’s aliveness.
But we must appreciate these truths on the level of imagination and intuition.
However, excessive left-hemisphere thinking keeps us focused on the level of fine detail – analysis breaks down into parts – and we cannot see how things fit into a larger picture of the kind just described.
Recovering spiritual health means invariably limiting analysis – which is just breaking into parts – and turning back towards a larger and more comprehensive picture.
That is why I consistently describe modernity as in particular “stupid” – because it is precisely the narrowing of our focus until we can’t see the larger picture anymore.
But the larger picture is grasped better by imagination and intuition, our other paths to knowledge and truth, because the whole cannot be precisely defined in sharp categories but must remain somewhat implicit.
Even the description I just gave is really only a hint 🙂
That is why above and beyond words, spiritual practice is a practice designed to correctly orient out minds to truths that can’t be precisely formulated in words.
Beyond that, I have some personal metaphysical views of the "purpose of the universe" which do a fine job of warding off nihilism. I'm not as brave as you though, so I'm not going to talk about them for fear of being laughed out of the room.
That's not to say I'm not "afraid" of death. Of course I am. There are plenty of things I wouldn't do in life because I'm afraid I might die. I doubt Buddhists really differ much in this regard.
Death-is-just-transformation seems like a bit of a cope to me. If I can't retain any "memory" - or whatever the equivalent is for a disembodied mind - of who I am/was, then whether I'm "transformed" or simply dead is a distinction without a difference. The more appealing concept of metempsychosis suffers from the same defect.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
Meanwhile an air convoy is leaving Moscow for Tehran to prepare for the flare-up again in Palestine.
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1515056960806207499
Orthodox Jews' world is the next one, not this one where geopolitics divide loyalties. Some of them don't want Israel to exist because Israel existing means the End Times, but most of them are just happy to have a spot under the sun.
The only indigenous Palestinean Jews are Mizrahim. All else are practically immigrants after 2k years of "exile". Deeply ironical to see you refering the settler colony of Jews "Palestine".Replies: @Yahya, @A123, @LondonBob
Mizrahim mostly arrived in Palestine during the 20th century (1948-1980), when 850,00 of them were expelled or pressured to leave by Arab countries and Iran. In fact, most of them arrived after the Ashkenazim. By your definition, neither Mizrahi Jews nor Ashkenazim are indigenous to Palestine (with the exception of the pre-Zionist Jewish population of Palestine, the so-called “Old Yishuv”, who numbered 20,000 in 1881).
But the word “indigenous” is somewhat problematic in the context of Israeli Jews, since even though they are recent immigrants/settlers, most of them can trace part of their ancestry to the ancient Jews of antiquity. The only two exceptions being Yemeni and Ethiopian Jews, who are in the main local Yemeni and Ethiopian converts to Judaism. Other Mizrahi, Sephardi and Ashkenazi groups retain a significant presence of ancient Levantine ancestry, even though they’ve mixed some with their host populations in MENA and Europe following the Roman dispersion.
*Ashkenazi Jews are roughly 45% Levantine, 40% Southern European, and 15% Northern European. The Levantine component though isn’t necessarily Palestinian per se, but could be from any place Roman-period Jews inhabited from Alexandria up to Anatolia. The Southern European component is either Iberian or Italian, and is mostly carried on the maternal side, suggesting that Middle Eastern Jewish males inter-mixed with Southern European females following the fall of Rome. The Ashkenazim are the furthest group genetically (and probably phenotypically) from the Jews of the Bible.
*Mesopotamian and Persian Jews, as well as related communities like Kurdish, Georgian and Bukharan Jews, are descendants of the Jews held in Babylonian captivity during the 6th century BC. Though the Jews eventually were allowed back to Palestine following the Persian conquest of Babylon, many remained in Mesopotamia. Iraqi and Iranian Jews are thus the closest genetically to the Jews of the Bible. Mesopotamia and Persia became the focus of Judaism for the next 1,000 years after the destruction of the Second Temple in Jerusalem. Salima Murad was a famous 20th century Iraqi Jewish singer.
*Moroccan Jews are a mix of ancient Levantine, indigenous Berbers, and Spanish Jews. They are distinct from gentile Moroccans in that they exhibit a substantial Levantine component generally not found in Muslims, and have slightly more European ancestry. The European ancestry was introduced by Spanish Jews who migrated to North Africa following their expulsion from Spain in 1492. They mixed in with the local Jews of North Africa and absorbed them into their Sephardic traditions. Though Moroccan Jews mostly follow the Sephardic religious tradition, genetically they remain slightly distinct from Sephardic Jews by their Berber ancestry. Roni Elkabetz, Emanuelle Chirqui, Ofir Ben Shitri are some examples of Moroccan Jews (Moroccan Jewish women are a pretty lot).
*Sephardic Jews are fairly diverse. One cluster consists of Iberian, Turkish and Bulgarian Jews; who occupy a position near the Ashkenazim on a PCA map. Like the Ashkenazim, the Sephardim are originally a mix of Southern Europeans (Iberians and Italians) and Middle Eastern Jews (unlike the Ashkenazim though, they do not have a 15% Northern European component). 75% of Sephardic paternal lineage is Middle Eastern. Some migrated northwards following their expulsion from Spain in 1492 (David Ricardo, Baruch Spinoza and Benjamin Disraeli were of Sephardic Jewish origin), but most accepted the Ottoman Porte’s invitation to settle in various parts of the Empire. Sephardic Jews were culturally and demographically dominant in and around Constantinople from 1500 to the 20th century when they emigrated en masse to Israel.
You can see here an admixture plot of various MENA populations. The colors represent different ancestral components:
* Dark Blue = Eastern Euroepan Hunter Gatherer
* Light Blue = Levant_Neolithic
* Green = Iran_Neolithic
* Red = Sub-Saharan
A PCA of genetic distance:
What is the significance of Jewish ancestry to us non-Jews?Replies: @Yahya
Guess I also have a soft spot for “Darmok.” Heavy-handed and not very logical, but I can forgive it because I think it is a good analogy. Suppose it is an another episode that veers away from scientism. It made me read Gilgamesh, which sadly does not survive completely intact.
I am getting a bit sentimental, but another one I liked is the one where Riker does the exchange on a Klingon ship. I think it is great how it acknowledges different cultures and loyalties.
While I dislike the wokeness of TNG, I really appreciated how, for the most part, it was not a serial and most episodes could be judged on their own merits, or even given their own writers.
Meanwhile an air convoy is leaving Moscow for Tehran to prepare for the flare-up again in Palestine.
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1515056960806207499
Orthodox Jews' world is the next one, not this one where geopolitics divide loyalties. Some of them don't want Israel to exist because Israel existing means the End Times, but most of them are just happy to have a spot under the sun.
The only indigenous Palestinean Jews are Mizrahim. All else are practically immigrants after 2k years of "exile". Deeply ironical to see you refering the settler colony of Jews "Palestine".Replies: @Yahya, @A123, @LondonBob
There are huge numbers of Palestinian Jews of Russia lineage. And, in many cases extended family members are still in Russia.
Israel’s Yisrael Beiteinu was originally formed for Russian language speakers. Not that long ago it held over 10% of the Knesset seats. Other parties, notably Likud, became more Russia friendly to woo voters away from Beiteinu. It still holds 5 or 6 seats and is well positioned to be a deciding factor in close elections.
Israel and Russia collaborate on military coproduction ventures. Here is a particularly large example (1)
In Syria — At a minimum, Russia is not interfering with Israel operations against Iranian offensive units. Is Russia actually helping the IDF? That rumor keeps circulating, and there is no way to prove or disprove it.
Israel headed off yet another unprovoked Iranian assault on Jewish families and children. Russian officials are probably trying to talk Khamenei out of doing something fantastically stupid.
There is some good news. It looks like this latest round of senseless Iranian aggression has finally killed the idea of an unworkable JCPOA2 deal.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/09/israel-india-russia-narendra-modi-benjamin-netanyahu-phalcon.html
All religious Jews have a claim on the indigenous religious home land of Judaism in Judea (a.k.a. Palestine). It is a religious matter, not an ethnic one.
Muhammad the Colonial Prophet led his Jihadist Settlers to Palestine and stole Infidel land ~1,400 years ago. I am quite un-ironically suggesting that the non-indigenous religion of Islam should decolonize from their settlements and return stolen Infidel lands.
Hmm, yeah, okay. I’ll have to think some more about it. I’m still put off by the idea that a bunch of particles coming together and behaving “quantumly” can constitute sufficient “me-ness” for my purposes, but perhaps I could come around.
I’m not particularly bothered by the fact of death. It would be nice if there something beyond it – something “good”, I mean – but if there isn’t, at least death would eliminate the possibility of any further suffering, which is actually not a bad deal.
Beyond that, I have some personal metaphysical views of the “purpose of the universe” which do a fine job of warding off nihilism. I’m not as brave as you though, so I’m not going to talk about them for fear of being laughed out of the room.
That’s not to say I’m not “afraid” of death. Of course I am. There are plenty of things I wouldn’t do in life because I’m afraid I might die. I doubt Buddhists really differ much in this regard.
Death-is-just-transformation seems like a bit of a cope to me. If I can’t retain any “memory” – or whatever the equivalent is for a disembodied mind – of who I am/was, then whether I’m “transformed” or simply dead is a distinction without a difference. The more appealing concept of metempsychosis suffers from the same defect.
You have a valid point that we have more physical power than ever before, which should translate into the freedom to live a happier life. That, after all, is the great promise of modernity, really.
But does it? It really depends on your values and what sort of lifestyle one most values. For myself, the vastly expanded powers of the modern world have nevertheless created a lifestyle and physical reality that greatly restrict my ability to live the life I would truly want. The world is far uglier and less interesting on every level than it can and should be.
Fascinating and complex ancient human cultures are being destroyed. Huge swathes of the worlds wilderness are also being destroyed. Cities and towns have become ugly and soulless.
The beauty and wonder of the world and it's human inhabitants has been massively degraded.
And considering the extremely poor mental health increasingly afflicting the population of the developed world, I am certainly not alone.
Perhaps vastly expanded powers aren't the key to happiness, as so many myths and legends insist on warning us :)
Now, you say that social pressure isn't an absolute barrier to living an alternative lifestyle - and that's true, but if we are being realistic about human nature as it is I think we have to admit that the social environment plays a huge role in circumscribing our choices.
But you make a good point that choice still exists, even if it has to be wrested from society - so my goal is much less to "transform" society than to win social support and approval for alternative lifestyles, and a kind of "spiritual infrastructure" that helps young people find this alternative path.
In traditional China and India, most people lived ordinary lives, but leaving city life behind and abandoning the rat race was an honored and socially validated choice that had a lot of spiritual infrastructure to support it.
So that needs to be restored to our society, I think.
But I think there is a more fundamental point to be made here. If a huge - and perhaps even the decisive - factor in being happy is the correct use of our minds and the correct mental and emotional relationship to the external world, then the "metaphysics" undergirding modern life, with it's belief that mathematical certainty alone is the correct relationship to reality, leads to perhaps the most unhappy generation to have ever lived :) I don't see the task as "persuasion" which suggests force. Rather, I see it as simply formulating an alternative ideal and "inviting" others to consider it.
Many people today seem to suffer greatly from poor mental health in modern society without being aware there are alternatives. Well, I would only want those who are genuinely unsatisfied with modernity and who will genuinely become significantly healthier and happier living an alternative life to do so - and I would "invite" them to consider it, and not "convince" them :)
It's obviously unfair for such people to remain "economic captives" in a system designed for the benefit of those who still think the point of life is to make money and acquire things - and moreover, I hold out hope that even such benighted people will at least somewhat see the light after they see people flourishing who live opposite to them :)
Not to mention, the "economic lifestyle" of these mainstream people are not in themselves neutral, but actively contribute to an uglier and worse world.
So on every level I think it would be a positive thing for everyone.
I don't believe there can be such "radical seperation" between those of us who pursue nature and the mainstream which seeks wealth and power - part of the "metaphysic" of nature-love, is the insight that we are all connected in a larger organic whole, and what goes on in one place affects everything.
So I think we have a spiritual duty to not "leave others behind" but work towards their salvation as well :) Well said :)Replies: @Barbarossa, @Grahamsno(G64), @Mikel
I want my broadband internet, TV, Refrigeration, air conditioning, electricity, shopping malls, supermarkets and all the amenities which our civilization affords us.
I will accept all the neuroticism that seems to come with the package rather than your rural mysticism which you seem to offer. I might be strawmanning you but that’s what I feel with you tens of thousands of words expressing your disenchantment with contemporary civilization – I love it.
Besides, it's not possible to turn back the clock and recreate the past. That is gone and what will come must necessarily be innovative. What form that innovation takes is the real answer. Will we look to the past and recover the best from that moving forward, or must we double down on pathological mistakes?
Every choice has trade offs and there is not gain without a loss. Every path taken precludes others. It's all a question of what the most meaningful gains and losses are and if what we have lost is worth what we have gained. It's also not entirely a zero sum game. Moderation could give us much of the best of both worlds. However, out culture is violently against moderation in any form especially when it comes material consumption. This has created an insatiable hunger, as our world is actively hostile to the formation of contentment. Contentment makes happy people but bad consumers.
I'd elaborate more, but I don't have time now. Perhaps I'll get to more in a couple days.
George IslamoSoros and his puppet Biden are quite upset with Israel & Hungary. Of course, Not-The-President Biden's popularity is so abysmal no major player takes him seriously.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/04/13/bennett-is-siding-with-the-ruthless-killer-putin/
(2) https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hasnt-joined-anti-russia-sanctions-but-its-firms-need-to-tread-carefully/Replies: @JimDandy, @Greasy William
Ultimately, morality and national interests are one in the same. Israel should avoid involvement in the conflict and should not comment on the outstanding issues between Russia and Ukraine, but Israel is also morally obligated to explicitly condemn the Russian invasion as a criminal act of aggression and to join the western sanctions until Russia agrees to a ceasefire.
Israel’s failure to stand up for what is right in this case is a moral blemish and is certain to bring about Divine retribution at some point.
Never a shortage of fighter planes, British industry churned them out, the issue was pilots. The Battle of Britain was never a close contest, despite the mythology constructed.
Meanwhile an air convoy is leaving Moscow for Tehran to prepare for the flare-up again in Palestine.
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1515056960806207499
Orthodox Jews' world is the next one, not this one where geopolitics divide loyalties. Some of them don't want Israel to exist because Israel existing means the End Times, but most of them are just happy to have a spot under the sun.
The only indigenous Palestinean Jews are Mizrahim. All else are practically immigrants after 2k years of "exile". Deeply ironical to see you refering the settler colony of Jews "Palestine".Replies: @Yahya, @A123, @LondonBob
An inevitability that a lot of the captured NATO weaponry will end up in Syria and Iraq. The US position there is very vulnerable, the breakdown of the Iran deal will likely see the Iranians looking to go on the offensive.
Armchair Warlord on twitter has written a lot about how the Ukraine and NATO are running out of ammunition. I assume Russia has been stockpiling for a long time. We saw in Libya how quickly ammunition ran out and what NATO is sending is pretty much useless gear.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1514824311177064448?s=20&t=gDxvyf6MDk4-HAUneE6JwA
To avoid months of personnel delay, complex systems are selected based current usage by the Ukrainian military. Russia transferred a short brigade of S-300 to Syria. How long did it take before they could run the system without direct support by RF trainers? What side will "capture" the gear and then send it to an Arab/Persian combat zone?
None of the parties in the current Ukraine conflict have an obvious reason to supply Iraq.
Perhaps RF Chechen units might wish to bolster aligned units in Syria. Even if you make that assumption, there have to be easier options to achieve that objective. Transporting "captured" gear from Ukraine to Syria would be exceedingly inconvenient. Iran is financially pressed dealing with domestic issues. For example, the current water crisis requires prioritization of resources to maintain internal security. This greatly limits the damage they can create abroad. Turning Lebanon into a failed stated has maxed out their capability.
Signing an inherently broken JCPOA2 deal would guarantee war. It would provide Iran funding for offensive operations. And, as an act of submission, it would signal weakness. That combination would convey the equivalent of a red carpet to violent zealot Khamenei.
One can see why WEF Elites want additional conflicts. More fighting = More Rape-ugees illegally entering Europe. Fortunately, there is no way for their puppet, Not-The-President Biden, to achieve a new JCPOA2 arrangement. Most of the restrictions on Iran are required by law. and the deeply unpopular regime cannot obtain the 50+ Senators required for new legislation. What U.S. positions? There are very limited numbers of American troops left in Syria & Iraq.
Trump relocated U.S. forces out of the kill sack between Turkish and Syrian lines. The new position has highly favorable terrain and minimal population to disguise Iranian terrorists.
PEACE 😇
Battle of Britain was a bust but the Blitz was effective and would have eventually forced a ceasefire if it had continued. By the end of the Blitz, the Luftwaffe was still getting through with minimal losses. It wasn’t until the Luftwaffe returned over a year later that Britain was able to effectively defend against night bombing.
I give up.
So many lies, so many uninformed opinions.
The wisest answer to almost all questions is “I don’t know”. I’ll make that my motto from now on.
I am going to immerse myself in astronomy, maths, geology, Latin and linguistics.
Reading the media is fruitless. It is all lies and manipulation. The people who rule us are vermin.
Have a nice life, everybody. I am retreating into my own little world.
You’ll be happy to know, this is my last comment.
However, feel free to share some of the interesting insights you find in your study with us here. I think it would be fitting and appreciated and launch topics other than punting around the latest piece of useless state propaganda.
If you don't pop back up here with future interesting discoveries, be well.
Beyond that, I have some personal metaphysical views of the "purpose of the universe" which do a fine job of warding off nihilism. I'm not as brave as you though, so I'm not going to talk about them for fear of being laughed out of the room.
That's not to say I'm not "afraid" of death. Of course I am. There are plenty of things I wouldn't do in life because I'm afraid I might die. I doubt Buddhists really differ much in this regard.
Death-is-just-transformation seems like a bit of a cope to me. If I can't retain any "memory" - or whatever the equivalent is for a disembodied mind - of who I am/was, then whether I'm "transformed" or simply dead is a distinction without a difference. The more appealing concept of metempsychosis suffers from the same defect.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9907009
Free will inferred from the basic principles of quantum mechanics is hokum.
The scientific dilemma has not advanced a day beyond what Leibniz and Newton used to yammer about when they were in their “let us speculate here for a bit” mode.
Demons are actually as good an explanation for UFO’s as any other.
Beyond that, I have some personal metaphysical views of the "purpose of the universe" which do a fine job of warding off nihilism. I'm not as brave as you though, so I'm not going to talk about them for fear of being laughed out of the room.
That's not to say I'm not "afraid" of death. Of course I am. There are plenty of things I wouldn't do in life because I'm afraid I might die. I doubt Buddhists really differ much in this regard.
Death-is-just-transformation seems like a bit of a cope to me. If I can't retain any "memory" - or whatever the equivalent is for a disembodied mind - of who I am/was, then whether I'm "transformed" or simply dead is a distinction without a difference. The more appealing concept of metempsychosis suffers from the same defect.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
Personally I regard free will as an “ontological primitive” – as self evident and irreducible.
It’s just interesting that modern science no longer subscribes to determinism. Its an interesting topic to explore if you’re interested, the spiritual implications of modern science – but for myself, science no longer holds such an exalted place that I need it’s permission 🙂
As for survival as transformation, well a big part of Buddhism is to expand the concept of “me” – are you this skin-encapsulated ego, or are you something much larger and bigger?
With such an expanded sense of “me”, it’s easier to see their point.
Nevertheless that’s just one way to express the mystery. For myself, I just have an intuitive sense that death of the body does not mean death – but I cannot use precise language to define it, not do I care to 🙂
To my mind, there are realities that can’t be captured in thought or words, and that is good and well 🙂
But different traditions formulate different answers to the mystery of death that may be more satisfying to others. In the end, words can only hint.
I for one would love to hear your spiritual beliefs! They can’t possibly be more silly and absurd than my own 🙂
I’ve been mocked here relentlessly by many, but that surely means the materialists feel threatened.
I am sure your spiritual beliefs are interesting and capture some aspect of the truth.
(Also, I am not “committed” to Buddhism, I simply find my own spiritual thinking heavily inspired by some sects of Buddhism)
I will accept all the neuroticism that seems to come with the package rather than your rural mysticism which you seem to offer. I might be strawmanning you but that's what I feel with you tens of thousands of words expressing your disenchantment with contemporary civilization - I love it.Replies: @AaronB, @Barbarossa
Sure, and I’m not trying to forcibly deprive you of these things.
This idea that life is a zero sum game, and politics the battle over who gets to “force” their vision on others, is something I vigorously reject.
Actually, rather than restrict people’s choices what I’m trying to do is expand the range of choices society offers.
It’s modern society that seeks to restrict the range of choices to one lifestyle and one value system – no previous society did this! Modern society is impoverished.
Traditional India, for instance – your own culture – recognized the values of the merchant, the warrior, the farmer, the craftsman, the artist and poet, the spiritual aspirant, and crucially, those who rejected mainstream life altogether and chose to wander the forests and mountains in search of enlightenment.
Our modern culture recognizes only the values of the merchant and his adjunct, the creator of technology.
That being said, I certainly won’t deny that I would also hope for social transformation even in the mainstream.
But I do not envision giving up technology, just using it intelligently rather than being dominated by it. The level which I personally want to limit technology in my life isn’t necessary for the mainstream, but a different relationship to it is needed, it seems to me.
An example of being the servant of technology rather than it’s master is the way we allowed cars to dominate cities and dictate how we build them, making them ugly and unpleasant.
Or the way we decided that in an age of science, sentimental things like “beauty” don’t matter so we don’t have to build beautiful buildings, but only rational and utilitarian ones.
Or that cities have to be designed in a boring square grid because the values of efficiency and convenience trump all else.
I will accept all the neuroticism that seems to come with the package rather than your rural mysticism which you seem to offer. I might be strawmanning you but that's what I feel with you tens of thousands of words expressing your disenchantment with contemporary civilization - I love it.Replies: @AaronB, @Barbarossa
Have you considered the possibility that some of the best aspects of modernity can be preserved while minimizing the worst, most destructive aspects. I, and I suspect Aaron would agree with this sentiment, don’t think it has to be an all or nothing proposition.
Besides, it’s not possible to turn back the clock and recreate the past. That is gone and what will come must necessarily be innovative. What form that innovation takes is the real answer. Will we look to the past and recover the best from that moving forward, or must we double down on pathological mistakes?
Every choice has trade offs and there is not gain without a loss. Every path taken precludes others. It’s all a question of what the most meaningful gains and losses are and if what we have lost is worth what we have gained. It’s also not entirely a zero sum game. Moderation could give us much of the best of both worlds. However, out culture is violently against moderation in any form especially when it comes material consumption. This has created an insatiable hunger, as our world is actively hostile to the formation of contentment. Contentment makes happy people but bad consumers.
I’d elaborate more, but I don’t have time now. Perhaps I’ll get to more in a couple days.
So many lies, so many uninformed opinions.
The wisest answer to almost all questions is "I don't know". I'll make that my motto from now on.
I am going to immerse myself in astronomy, maths, geology, Latin and linguistics.
Reading the media is fruitless. It is all lies and manipulation. The people who rule us are vermin.
Have a nice life, everybody. I am retreating into my own little world.
You'll be happy to know, this is my last comment.Replies: @Barbarossa, @sudden death
The media is useless and pointless, and I expect that you will be happier and more meaningfully productive in your imposed world. Your choice is doubtless an eminently sane one, even if I hate to see an interesting voice drop out.
However, feel free to share some of the interesting insights you find in your study with us here. I think it would be fitting and appreciated and launch topics other than punting around the latest piece of useless state propaganda.
If you don’t pop back up here with future interesting discoveries, be well.
Mystery as ‘dead’ captain of sunk Russian ship filmed at ‘survivors’ parade. Did he save his computer by any chance like the Italian captain who sunk his cruise ship but saved his computer upon leaving?
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5140378/mystery-dead-captain-sunk-russian-moskva-survivors-parade?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb
So many lies, so many uninformed opinions.
The wisest answer to almost all questions is "I don't know". I'll make that my motto from now on.
I am going to immerse myself in astronomy, maths, geology, Latin and linguistics.
Reading the media is fruitless. It is all lies and manipulation. The people who rule us are vermin.
Have a nice life, everybody. I am retreating into my own little world.
You'll be happy to know, this is my last comment.Replies: @Barbarossa, @sudden death
Looks like dealing with actual reality is increasingly becoming too hard for some RF propaganda junkies as UA capital is free while the famed Donbas cauldron is sooo late…
The area is designated as the Sloboda Front, referring to the older Sloboda Ukraine. The Russian army is moving south down the Muravsky Trail toward Kramatorsk. The Russians are positioning armor all along the shoulder from Kharkov around the Salient of Ukrainians loping to Donetsk all the way along to the Dnieper river. A spell of dry weather and the frontline will crack in a few places. A SuperMariupol.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-52-summary/Replies: @sudden death
Currently, I think travelogues on Youtube must be the most mainstream place, where you can find the narrative challenged.
_____
Sweden is surprisingly undemocratic for all its talk of egalitarianism (no ballot on NATO)
_____
I think technology can be used to return to tradition. I’ve read several old books about the Old Country, using technology, that it would be nearly impossible to have read otherwise.
Also my point would be that tradition must necessarily be an action performed and sustained by a group, so the reading may preserve the memory but it doesn't continue the tradition as a living entity.
Tangentially, are you familiar with the Carmina Gadelica by Alexander Carmichael? The prayers and incantations, together with his notes provide an invaluable window into the lost world of Gaelic thought and practice.
@AaronB You should check them out too. I think you would greatly appreciate the spiritual perspective.Replies: @songbird
You have a valid point that we have more physical power than ever before, which should translate into the freedom to live a happier life. That, after all, is the great promise of modernity, really.
But does it? It really depends on your values and what sort of lifestyle one most values. For myself, the vastly expanded powers of the modern world have nevertheless created a lifestyle and physical reality that greatly restrict my ability to live the life I would truly want. The world is far uglier and less interesting on every level than it can and should be.
Fascinating and complex ancient human cultures are being destroyed. Huge swathes of the worlds wilderness are also being destroyed. Cities and towns have become ugly and soulless.
The beauty and wonder of the world and it's human inhabitants has been massively degraded.
And considering the extremely poor mental health increasingly afflicting the population of the developed world, I am certainly not alone.
Perhaps vastly expanded powers aren't the key to happiness, as so many myths and legends insist on warning us :)
Now, you say that social pressure isn't an absolute barrier to living an alternative lifestyle - and that's true, but if we are being realistic about human nature as it is I think we have to admit that the social environment plays a huge role in circumscribing our choices.
But you make a good point that choice still exists, even if it has to be wrested from society - so my goal is much less to "transform" society than to win social support and approval for alternative lifestyles, and a kind of "spiritual infrastructure" that helps young people find this alternative path.
In traditional China and India, most people lived ordinary lives, but leaving city life behind and abandoning the rat race was an honored and socially validated choice that had a lot of spiritual infrastructure to support it.
So that needs to be restored to our society, I think.
But I think there is a more fundamental point to be made here. If a huge - and perhaps even the decisive - factor in being happy is the correct use of our minds and the correct mental and emotional relationship to the external world, then the "metaphysics" undergirding modern life, with it's belief that mathematical certainty alone is the correct relationship to reality, leads to perhaps the most unhappy generation to have ever lived :) I don't see the task as "persuasion" which suggests force. Rather, I see it as simply formulating an alternative ideal and "inviting" others to consider it.
Many people today seem to suffer greatly from poor mental health in modern society without being aware there are alternatives. Well, I would only want those who are genuinely unsatisfied with modernity and who will genuinely become significantly healthier and happier living an alternative life to do so - and I would "invite" them to consider it, and not "convince" them :)
It's obviously unfair for such people to remain "economic captives" in a system designed for the benefit of those who still think the point of life is to make money and acquire things - and moreover, I hold out hope that even such benighted people will at least somewhat see the light after they see people flourishing who live opposite to them :)
Not to mention, the "economic lifestyle" of these mainstream people are not in themselves neutral, but actively contribute to an uglier and worse world.
So on every level I think it would be a positive thing for everyone.
I don't believe there can be such "radical seperation" between those of us who pursue nature and the mainstream which seeks wealth and power - part of the "metaphysic" of nature-love, is the insight that we are all connected in a larger organic whole, and what goes on in one place affects everything.
So I think we have a spiritual duty to not "leave others behind" but work towards their salvation as well :) Well said :)Replies: @Barbarossa, @Grahamsno(G64), @Mikel
I see this quite differently. Everybody is aware of the calls to escape from the rat race. It’s a very old thing actually in our western society. Just listen to Pete Seeger’s songs from the 60s. If those calls and songs reached me in a small town of the Basque Country when Spain had barely recovered democracy, they must have reached everybody. The other day, following a link provided by Yayah that got me curious about the Persian Gulf natives, I discovered that even in Iran they have their own communities of “hippies”. Apparently, the only place where alternative lifestyles still have little traction is Eastern Europe. I get the impression that people in that region are much more interested in first enjoying all the good things (real or imaginary) of a western-style materialistic society.
But we must indeed be realistic about human nature and accept that a great majority are totally voluntary participants in the Machine, even though they know that alternatives exist. And they have every right to make that choice, just like you and me have the right to reject it for ourselves. My elder son knows very well what kind of lifestyle I like but the other day he surprised me when he said that he’s actually looking forward to going back to the office. He doesn’t like working from home (!) and prefers to have daily contact with his coworkers at what I imagine must be some obscure office somewhere in uninspiring central Warsaw. What can I say? Just do whatever makes you happy, son. Life is challenging enough without me trying to impose rules on how you choose to live it.
As far as I’m concerned, the only part of society that exerts any pressure on how to lead my life is my immediate family. And rightly so. How could I ignore their wishes and preferences? In fact, I exert an even bigger pressure on them. We live in a semi-rural part of the US West only because I chose it thinking about myself much more than about them. Fortunately, my wife is very happy now and my younger son hasn’t really known any other life so he’s cool of course.
The other day I listed several groups that escape the Machine in one way or another and have become pretty mainstream, if not outright promoted by MSM, such as those famous pioneers of the Alaskan Frontier. But what to make of the epidemic of homeless people that you see most everywhere in the US? Is that not, in its own way, similar to that Indian tradition of abandoning material comfort and going for a life of wandering about, begging and contemplating? These people usually have all their means at their disposal to return to a conventional life but they’re not interested. When authorities manage to get them accommodated somewhere, it’s not long before many of them go back to the street again. And whatever personal problems lead them to that lifestyle, can we be sure that they are essentially different from the Indian traditional mendicants’?
BTW, I’m not entirely sure that we have a bigger incidence of neuroses today than in the past. It certainly looks that way but many mental ailments in the past were masked by alcoholism, religious retreat, possession and witchery superstitions and who knows what else. I am totally certain that some of our old saints and heroes were not OK in the head.
Even Feynman once admitted that he didn’t really understand quantum mechanics so what chance do the rest of us have? But I would dispute that assertion of yours. My understanding of the probabilistic nature of the universe is that in the macro world nothing much changes. The probabilities of an object like a tennis ball or a planet not following Newton/Einstein mechanics are not exactly zero but for all practical purposes they approach zero and that is what we consistently observe. Note also that the discovery of quantum mechanics didn’t lead to scientists becoming more mystic or religious. Most great quantum theorists are declared atheists.
You make many valid points, although overall I do not think I can agree with you. But I do not think this is something that can be proved by arguments. Ultimately this is about "lived experience".
While I utilize logical arguments in a variety of ways to support my position, none of my arguments are airtight, and there is certainly room to reasonably disagree.
While I cannot "demolish" your counter-arguments against me, I would like to make a few - not very strong but perhaps interesting - points :)
With regards to quantum mechanics - it's true that the "indeterminacy" exists on the subatomic level, while larger bodies seem to behave with a fair amount of predictability.
However, this might support the view that matter, as a whole, is simply "choosing" to manifest fairly regular patterns - and it also leaves room for surprises on the margins.
Logically, a deterministic universe rests on the idea that bodies at rest stay at rest, unless acted upon by an external force - but this is an unproven axiom, and the opposite may well be true.
Feynman said he couldn't understand Quantum mechanics because it violated logic and common sense - a medieval mystic would have no trouble "understanding" it :)
But clearly, insofar as understanding refers to grasping reality through reason, it is not understandable - yet true. And that should surely tell us something about reasons relationship to reality.
With regards to mental illness - or spiritual sickness as I would call it - you are certainly correct that this isn't unique to our age.
Nor is the Machine unique to our age. It can be seen already in ancient Egypt and Babylon, etc. All the worlds ancient spiritual traditions talk of mankind being "sick - 2,500 years ago the Buddha described man as fundamentally sick and needing to be cured.
So certainly none of this is new, and many thinkers trace it to the move from hunter gathering and into agriculture - the first instance of the desire for power over nature in place of organic participation.
Be that as it may, it clearly isn't new. My only contention is that this ancient sickness has reached an apogee in modern times, and I don't think I could definitively prove that.
In the final analysis, all I can - and wish - to do is offer my "lived experience" as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary.
If someone does not find it attractive or compelling, then the last thing I would want to do is compel or coerce such a person!
Everyone's spiritual needs are different - someone like your son may not be ready to consider alternatives and may be at a stage in his life where participating in modern life is exactly what he needs to support his growth. And he may never wish to consider alternatives - that choice must be respected too.
I suppose, my writing is most suitable to people who are indeed unhappy with modern life but do not find enough social and spiritual support.
Sure, we are all aware of alternatives in the ancient spiritual traditions and in recent movements like hippies - but it's incredibly supportive to find people now doing and talking about these things, and not just in some abstract past.
One thing I absolutely do agree with you is that everyone has the right to make their own choice, even if that means staying in the Machine, and everyone should be treated with respect and dignity whatever their choice. That's actually not true.
Iain Mcgilchrist in his Things book had an entire fairly large appendix showing the large number of eminent scientists who developed spiritual beliefs the deeper they got into science.Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen, @Colin Wright
It seems that there are definitely factors at work here above and beyond mere recognition of the problem, although that is a factor.
Would you argue that there is no phenomenon really going on at all?Replies: @A123, @Mikel
The reality of "liberal arts" education in today's world is captured in cartoon form here:https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/liberal-educationThe graphic is *far* too large to embed.PEACE 😇
A little bit Amish I suppose. I respect that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zardoz
_____
Sweden is surprisingly undemocratic for all its talk of egalitarianism (no ballot on NATO)
_____
I think technology can be used to return to tradition. I've read several old books about the Old Country, using technology, that it would be nearly impossible to have read otherwise.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Barbarossa
Our grandparents were sure that Atlantis was a myth. Scythians people only of legend. CBS News told them the truth.
I had to force myself to go to bed last night because I was drunk on history. First, listening to a podcast of a local historian talk about my grandfather's village during the Irish War of Independence. Next because I was reading an old book on an e-reader and had reached a section discussing the opinions of country peasants about Travelers. Before that it was about changelings, and some of it was genuinely creepy.Replies: @silviosilver
Thank you for your thoughtful reply.
You make many valid points, although overall I do not think I can agree with you. But I do not think this is something that can be proved by arguments. Ultimately this is about “lived experience”.
While I utilize logical arguments in a variety of ways to support my position, none of my arguments are airtight, and there is certainly room to reasonably disagree.
While I cannot “demolish” your counter-arguments against me, I would like to make a few – not very strong but perhaps interesting – points 🙂
With regards to quantum mechanics – it’s true that the “indeterminacy” exists on the subatomic level, while larger bodies seem to behave with a fair amount of predictability.
However, this might support the view that matter, as a whole, is simply “choosing” to manifest fairly regular patterns – and it also leaves room for surprises on the margins.
Logically, a deterministic universe rests on the idea that bodies at rest stay at rest, unless acted upon by an external force – but this is an unproven axiom, and the opposite may well be true.
Feynman said he couldn’t understand Quantum mechanics because it violated logic and common sense – a medieval mystic would have no trouble “understanding” it 🙂
But clearly, insofar as understanding refers to grasping reality through reason, it is not understandable – yet true. And that should surely tell us something about reasons relationship to reality.
With regards to mental illness – or spiritual sickness as I would call it – you are certainly correct that this isn’t unique to our age.
Nor is the Machine unique to our age. It can be seen already in ancient Egypt and Babylon, etc. All the worlds ancient spiritual traditions talk of mankind being “sick – 2,500 years ago the Buddha described man as fundamentally sick and needing to be cured.
So certainly none of this is new, and many thinkers trace it to the move from hunter gathering and into agriculture – the first instance of the desire for power over nature in place of organic participation.
Be that as it may, it clearly isn’t new. My only contention is that this ancient sickness has reached an apogee in modern times, and I don’t think I could definitively prove that.
In the final analysis, all I can – and wish – to do is offer my “lived experience” as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary.
If someone does not find it attractive or compelling, then the last thing I would want to do is compel or coerce such a person!
Everyone’s spiritual needs are different – someone like your son may not be ready to consider alternatives and may be at a stage in his life where participating in modern life is exactly what he needs to support his growth. And he may never wish to consider alternatives – that choice must be respected too.
I suppose, my writing is most suitable to people who are indeed unhappy with modern life but do not find enough social and spiritual support.
Sure, we are all aware of alternatives in the ancient spiritual traditions and in recent movements like hippies – but it’s incredibly supportive to find people now doing and talking about these things, and not just in some abstract past.
One thing I absolutely do agree with you is that everyone has the right to make their own choice, even if that means staying in the Machine, and everyone should be treated with respect and dignity whatever their choice.
That’s actually not true.
Iain Mcgilchrist in his Things book had an entire fairly large appendix showing the large number of eminent scientists who developed spiritual beliefs the deeper they got into science.
It's much more important to see that we have similar views with regards to enjoying contact with nature and to discuss our different approaches as to how and why.
How things change, by the way. It doesn't feel like it was such a long time ago when my father struggled with all his might to prevent my pursuing an alternative way of life. Now I have the opposite problem with my two adult children: they want to lead a conventional life. But what I learned from the experience of the battle with my father is not that an alternative way of life is necessarily better. Rather, that I should let them choose by themselves and just try to lead by example.
You're a hoot, Aaron, you really are.
You think we could get Ron to post all your comments in a thread? It would be convenient.Replies: @silviosilver
One of the “merely modern” ideas that have had disastrous consequences on the mental health of society is the notion of “trauma” (psychological).
The idea is that suffering and adversity have no legitimate and useful place in the “larger economy of life” – they are mere aberrations, without meaning, and entirely negative.
People are encouraged to view deep suffering as a meaningless tragedy that they are passive “victims” of, with the appropriate response being mere “recovery” (return to pre-suffering status quo) – not as part of a personal story of growth and redemption, and if properly integrated an essential part of the move towards greater health.
We thus deprive people of the very psychological infrastructure needed to integrate suffering into a higher vision that transforms it into a vital ingredient for the building of greater health and vitality.
The old spiritual idea that suffering and adversity are providential, specific challenges meant to stimulate spiritual growth – surely this was so much more health promoting!
It’s well known that rates of PTSD among combat veterans plummet when you simply don’t believe in PTSD (that you are a passive victim of meaningless suffering, and your goal should be limited to recovering the pre-suffering status quo).
We humans have an absolute need to integrate our experiences into a higher vision which makes sense of it all – to create a “narrative” that gives meaning and purpose to all aspects of our experience. This allows us to “digest” our experiences so to speak.
The modern breakdown of the ability to “redeem” suffering in a larger whole has led to unprecedented fragility and suffering – in one of the paradoxes we now know the modern world abounds in, the “war” on suffering achieved exactly the opposite, and greatly increased suffering.
“Self-defeating” measures are the hallmark of modernity.
And yet if you ask the average person, I am sure they would say the solution is to try and eliminate suffering even more 🙂
Tell us about the suffering you've experienced, Aaron.
I'm curious as to from whence you speak.
You are close but not quite exactly.
It is stated a bit more abstractly in his textbook. More like there isn’t anything in our experience which is going to help.
The Russians are exploiting the area around Izyum.
The area is designated as the Sloboda Front, referring to the older Sloboda Ukraine. The Russian army is moving south down the Muravsky Trail toward Kramatorsk. The Russians are positioning armor all along the shoulder from Kharkov around the Salient of Ukrainians loping to Donetsk all the way along to the Dnieper river. A spell of dry weather and the frontline will crack in a few places. A SuperMariupol.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-52-summary/
The grind, which can be be broken of course in theory, but certainly not because of some spell of dry weather at the moment.Replies: @Wokechoke
Armchair Warlord on twitter has written a lot about how the Ukraine and NATO are running out of ammunition. I assume Russia has been stockpiling for a long time. We saw in Libya how quickly ammunition ran out and what NATO is sending is pretty much useless gear.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1514824311177064448?s=20&t=gDxvyf6MDk4-HAUneE6JwAReplies: @A123, @Barbarossa
While the list has some obvious shortcomings, your designation of “useless” seems quite harsh. Some of the smaller gear, such as Switchblade, are current technology.
To avoid months of personnel delay, complex systems are selected based current usage by the Ukrainian military. Russia transferred a short brigade of S-300 to Syria. How long did it take before they could run the system without direct support by RF trainers?
What side will “capture” the gear and then send it to an Arab/Persian combat zone?
None of the parties in the current Ukraine conflict have an obvious reason to supply Iraq.
Perhaps RF Chechen units might wish to bolster aligned units in Syria. Even if you make that assumption, there have to be easier options to achieve that objective. Transporting “captured” gear from Ukraine to Syria would be exceedingly inconvenient.
Iran is financially pressed dealing with domestic issues. For example, the current water crisis requires prioritization of resources to maintain internal security. This greatly limits the damage they can create abroad. Turning Lebanon into a failed stated has maxed out their capability.
Signing an inherently broken JCPOA2 deal would guarantee war. It would provide Iran funding for offensive operations. And, as an act of submission, it would signal weakness. That combination would convey the equivalent of a red carpet to violent zealot Khamenei.
One can see why WEF Elites want additional conflicts. More fighting = More Rape-ugees illegally entering Europe. Fortunately, there is no way for their puppet, Not-The-President Biden, to achieve a new JCPOA2 arrangement. Most of the restrictions on Iran are required by law. and the deeply unpopular regime cannot obtain the 50+ Senators required for new legislation.
What U.S. positions? There are very limited numbers of American troops left in Syria & Iraq.
Trump relocated U.S. forces out of the kill sack between Turkish and Syrian lines. The new position has highly favorable terrain and minimal population to disguise Iranian terrorists.
PEACE 😇
The area is designated as the Sloboda Front, referring to the older Sloboda Ukraine. The Russian army is moving south down the Muravsky Trail toward Kramatorsk. The Russians are positioning armor all along the shoulder from Kharkov around the Salient of Ukrainians loping to Donetsk all the way along to the Dnieper river. A spell of dry weather and the frontline will crack in a few places. A SuperMariupol.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-52-summary/Replies: @sudden death
Instead of this day-to-day mundane military mumbo-jumbo coping which has been going for two months already in Donbas you should better read and refer to the practical people people who are pro-RF but at the same time have strong enough spine to acknowledge the politico-military reality of slow attritional grind.
The grind, which can be be broken of course in theory, but certainly not because of some spell of dry weather at the moment.
Still, it is interesting to note that when Perry steamed into Edo Bay with his cannon pointing at samurai, that was in 1853, years before the Civil War.
Not that it was necessarily bad for the Japanese. It may have been the kick in the pants that they needed.Replies: @S
Yes, they do. The United States at it’s founding had consciously modeled itself itself upon the Roman Republic. It was the Civil War era Lincoln administration where many see the US majorly breaking away from it’s original republican ideals.
In this view, Lincoln was a Julius Caesar who had ‘crossed the Rubicon’ with his centralization of government power, and John Wilkes Booth his Brutus. Accordingly, soon after the 1865 Lincoln assasination, the US would have it’s own Varus (‘Varus, Give me back my three legions!). [See the ‘comments’ link below under ‘More’ for just who the American Varus was.]
The point by point close parallels between the history of the United States and that of ancient Republican and Imperial Rome are downright uncanny.
I would have left Japan, China, and Korea, alone. It was their prerogative to be left alone, and learn (or not learn) about the outside world, at their own discretion and pace. In many ways as peoples they were being the ideal ‘global citizen’ with their live and let live philosophy.
It’s interesting that you should mention 1853, Japan, and early signs of US imperial ambition. That was the very same year a now very obscure (though at the time of it’s initial publication widely distributed and reviewed) book was published in the US entitled The New Rome. The book specifically references the then ongoing 1853 Perry expedition to Japan. [See excerpt and link below]
According to it, hordes of US businessmen are to invade China, and many millions of Chinese will be taken to the US to be exploited as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’).
The New Rome purports to be a future history of the world. It claims that a yet to be formed US/UK united front will move to take over the world by first conquering continental Europe’s center of power, ie Germany, thereby unleashing a ‘world’s war’ upon the Earth. Immediately afterwards this united front will move against Russia.
Incredibly, bearing in mind it’s mid 19th century publication date, the book claims it will be the US air force which will be instrumental in the future defeat of Russia.
For it’s remarkable prescience, The New Rome is well worth the time spent to read.
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/do-you-want-a-war-between-russia-and-nato/#comment-5172335
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/n15/mode/2up
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/76/mode/2up
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_steam_carriageReplies: @sudden death
I can’t recommend any books on Sikhs specifically (that looks like an interesting one) but John Keay’s monumental India: A History is great, at least as an introductory work, and, as I recall, points the reader to a number of other historians also worth reading.
I am getting many good pointers on books here lately.
We really need an Unz Review book rec section. For instance: Foucault, like Nietzsche, is surprisingly worth reading. Don’t let the fact that these philosophers seem to have been degenerate nutcases make you underestimate them, but don’t forget it, either.
Fiction: I just finished going through Wuthering Heights. I am surprised by how much AaronB would like it, as it can be interpreted among other things as an allegory of power– its origin in pain, its development in acquisitiveness, and, in the renewal of the new year at the end of the book, its ultimate failure.
I have also gotten a few good movie recommendations on here. My family and I are currently watching Vadachennai, which is a commercial Tamil film that is so far not half as bad as I expected, though it is not particularly deep. Sinhalese films are often very good: I was very affected by Oba Nathuwa Oba Ekka (“With You, Without You”). Slavs on here should like it as it is based on a Dostoevsky story.
Χριστός ἀνέστη!
Years ago, I did read a religious tract by Sikhs, but it was poorly translated. Most of my knowledge of them actually comes from George MacDonald Fraser. His crassness can get tiresome, but he was very knowledgeable about history, and it can be a learning experience to read the explanatory notes at the end of his Flashman novels.Replies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
The grind, which can be be broken of course in theory, but certainly not because of some spell of dry weather at the moment.Replies: @Wokechoke
MilitaryLand is quite pro Ukraine. They have tended to downplay Russian claims and boost Ukrainian best case scenarios.
It was you fantasying about super mariupol which will be achieved after dry spell, not the MilitaryLand which was just describing factual daily mundane movements in a local rural setting 😉
The maps they are using indicate that Russia has developed a bridgehead over the Donets that’s preparation for a summer offensive. Izyum is approximately where Manstein and Popov fought Second Kharkov. It’s a very important crossing area of the Muravsky Trail and the Donets River.Replies: @sudden death, @Philip Owen
Briefly, I would say that while mental illness has always been with us, the endemic depression and anxiety is very different. The shift is visible even within a couple generations in populations like college students who are now very anxious, depressed, and medicated for it, while when my parents were in college it would have been incomprehensible.
It seems that there are definitely factors at work here above and beyond mere recognition of the problem, although that is a factor.
Would you argue that there is no phenomenon really going on at all?
-- Unreasonable expectations (e.g. participation trophies)
-- Overwhelming problems (e.g. CRT, LBGTQXYZ+)Raising children that are fragile, rather than resilient, generates adults that cannot cope with reality. This shows up as mental illness.PEACE 😇
As you say, mental illnesses now are certainly more visible than in times past (all over the western world, as far as I can see) and we also feel a more urgent need to combat them, which perhaps leads to more people feeling that they are "sick", whereas in the past the same conditions would not have led to medical treatment. People just had to find some adjustment to their problems by themselves.
What medical science is certain about is that most mental illnesses have a genetic component, which means that in some form or another they have always been with us. I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. How people coped with these diseases across the ages is difficult to know. As AaronB said, we live in an age where we try to avoid suffering at all costs, while people in the past were more stoic. They didn't have any other choice either.
Another thing to consider before rushing to conclude that modern society is all crap is that in the past natural selection weeded out sickness in a brutal way. Someone suffering from certain mental illnesses in a hunter-gatherer environment was more unlikely to survive and thus pass on his genetic condition. But for several generations now, especially in the West, people survive and procreate almost regardless of their fitness so we should naturally expect to see more diseases of all kinds only on that account.Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa
Armchair Warlord on twitter has written a lot about how the Ukraine and NATO are running out of ammunition. I assume Russia has been stockpiling for a long time. We saw in Libya how quickly ammunition ran out and what NATO is sending is pretty much useless gear.
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1514824311177064448?s=20&t=gDxvyf6MDk4-HAUneE6JwAReplies: @A123, @Barbarossa
If the Russians are digging into older equipment too than it hardly seems useless, even if one wanted to argue that there was some older stuff in there.
In this view, Lincoln was a Julius Caesar who had 'crossed the Rubicon' with his centralization of government power, and John Wilkes Booth his Brutus. Accordingly, soon after the 1865 Lincoln assasination, the US would have it's own Varus ('Varus, Give me back my three legions!). [See the 'comments' link below under 'More' for just who the American Varus was.]
The point by point close parallels between the history of the United States and that of ancient Republican and Imperial Rome are downright uncanny. I would have left Japan, China, and Korea, alone. It was their prerogative to be left alone, and learn (or not learn) about the outside world, at their own discretion and pace. In many ways as peoples they were being the ideal 'global citizen' with their live and let live philosophy.
It's interesting that you should mention 1853, Japan, and early signs of US imperial ambition. That was the very same year a now very obscure (though at the time of it's initial publication widely distributed and reviewed) book was published in the US entitled The New Rome. The book specifically references the then ongoing 1853 Perry expedition to Japan. [See excerpt and link below]
According to it, hordes of US businessmen are to invade China, and many millions of Chinese will be taken to the US to be exploited as wage slaves (ie so called 'cheap labor').
The New Rome purports to be a future history of the world. It claims that a yet to be formed US/UK united front will move to take over the world by first conquering continental Europe's center of power, ie Germany, thereby unleashing a 'world's war' upon the Earth. Immediately afterwards this united front will move against Russia.
Incredibly, bearing in mind it's mid 19th century publication date, the book claims it will be the US air force which will be instrumental in the future defeat of Russia.
For it's remarkable prescience, The New Rome is well worth the time spent to read. https://www.unz.com/pescobar/do-you-want-a-war-between-russia-and-nato/#comment-5172335
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/n15/mode/2up
https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes/page/76/mode/2upReplies: @S
In reference to my just previous post regarding a future US air force as foreseen in 1853, they had sophisticated lighter than air (dirigibles) and heavier than air aircraft designs by the mid 19th century. Below are some pics of a patented 1842 British monoplane called the ‘Aerial’ designed for both passenger and air mail service.
The illustrations are from a mass UK advertising campaign circa 1843 to sell both the general public and investors on the Aerial project.
Alas, the Aerial’s steam engine was too heavy to make the plane ultimately flyable. It would take the yet to be invented gasoline powered internal combustion engine to do that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_steam_carriage
It seems that there are definitely factors at work here above and beyond mere recognition of the problem, although that is a factor.
Would you argue that there is no phenomenon really going on at all?Replies: @A123, @Mikel
Facing appropriate challenges as a child produces resilience. Competitive sports yield essential life lessons such as, “You cannot win all the time” and “There are rules you cannot change”.
SJW upbringing ignores basic life facts and instead gives children:
— Unreasonable expectations (e.g. participation trophies)
— Overwhelming problems (e.g. CRT, LBGTQXYZ+)
Raising children that are fragile, rather than resilient, generates adults that cannot cope with reality. This shows up as mental illness.
PEACE 😇
Is that so?
The maps they are using indicate that Russia has developed a bridgehead over the Donets that’s preparation for a summer offensive. Izyum is approximately where Manstein and Popov fought Second Kharkov. It’s a very important crossing area of the Muravsky Trail and the Donets River.
Also for — , ,
The reality of “liberal arts” education in today’s world is captured in cartoon form here:
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/liberal-education
The graphic is *far* too large to embed.
PEACE 😇
IMO, one the perils of technology is that it presents you with too much choice, and also certain things tend to be promoted to you (like WW2 or cat videos), and so you’ve got to have the initiative to reach beyond what they want you to see, so your brain doesn’t turn to mush, with dross and repetition.
I had to force myself to go to bed last night because I was drunk on history. First, listening to a podcast of a local historian talk about my grandfather’s village during the Irish War of Independence. Next because I was reading an old book on an e-reader and had reached a section discussing the opinions of country peasants about Travelers. Before that it was about changelings, and some of it was genuinely creepy.
The maps they are using indicate that Russia has developed a bridgehead over the Donets that’s preparation for a summer offensive. Izyum is approximately where Manstein and Popov fought Second Kharkov. It’s a very important crossing area of the Muravsky Trail and the Donets River.Replies: @sudden death, @Philip Owen
Should have specified at first that “dry spell” means month and a half at least 😉
Driving tanks through mud isn’t ideal. On dry ground…dry spell. Summer Offensive. Late spring might do depending on the climate right there. The Russians are well positioned to envelope Kramatorsk. The line they’ve established between the Dneiper and Donetsk is going to be idea for a push north as the forces to the south and west of Kharkov push south.
I understand the Ukies are busy flooding the areas with thaw, as much as possible to stymie the foldable areas around Izyum. This water will dry up and recede.
Why are you such a Talmudo-Nudelist?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_steam_carriageReplies: @sudden death
Didn’t go further into this whole “New Rome” 1853 theory book, but was there written something about nearing potential devastating implosion within USA which can divide the country into two warring states?
If not, that’s equal to somebody in 32 AD writing a book about spectacular new religion led by great Jesus which will conquer pagan Rome and all the world in the future, but failing to mention small detail about the existing real danger of him being tortured and murdered by Roman soldiers.
https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*KuG6i7NCpDeSqr35.jpg http://tarpley.net/online-books/against-oligarchy/lord-palmerstons-multicultural-human-zoo/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-kremlin-foreign-policy-strategy/629388/#:~:text=Mikhail Yuriev’s 2006 utopian novel%2C The Third Empire%3A,same year%2C and Russia’s current assault on Ukraine.https://medium.com/as-vast-as-space-and-as-timeless-as-infinity/twilight-zone-episode-review-3-1-two-4bd43f216be8Replies: @Yellowface Anon
The maps they are using indicate that Russia has developed a bridgehead over the Donets that’s preparation for a summer offensive. Izyum is approximately where Manstein and Popov fought Second Kharkov. It’s a very important crossing area of the Muravsky Trail and the Donets River.Replies: @sudden death, @Philip Owen
It looks as though the Russians in Izyum are getting trapped in cauldron judging by Ukraine’s counterattacks south of Kharkiv today.
It is amazing how military geography tends to stay the same from era to era.
The USSR had great trouble with Kharkov, which was originally built as a Russian fort to stop Crimea Tartars from raiding northwards into Moscow. The Germans and Russians fought several battles center
Ed on Kharkov, Izyum and Barankove. The military geography abides.
You make many valid points, although overall I do not think I can agree with you. But I do not think this is something that can be proved by arguments. Ultimately this is about "lived experience".
While I utilize logical arguments in a variety of ways to support my position, none of my arguments are airtight, and there is certainly room to reasonably disagree.
While I cannot "demolish" your counter-arguments against me, I would like to make a few - not very strong but perhaps interesting - points :)
With regards to quantum mechanics - it's true that the "indeterminacy" exists on the subatomic level, while larger bodies seem to behave with a fair amount of predictability.
However, this might support the view that matter, as a whole, is simply "choosing" to manifest fairly regular patterns - and it also leaves room for surprises on the margins.
Logically, a deterministic universe rests on the idea that bodies at rest stay at rest, unless acted upon by an external force - but this is an unproven axiom, and the opposite may well be true.
Feynman said he couldn't understand Quantum mechanics because it violated logic and common sense - a medieval mystic would have no trouble "understanding" it :)
But clearly, insofar as understanding refers to grasping reality through reason, it is not understandable - yet true. And that should surely tell us something about reasons relationship to reality.
With regards to mental illness - or spiritual sickness as I would call it - you are certainly correct that this isn't unique to our age.
Nor is the Machine unique to our age. It can be seen already in ancient Egypt and Babylon, etc. All the worlds ancient spiritual traditions talk of mankind being "sick - 2,500 years ago the Buddha described man as fundamentally sick and needing to be cured.
So certainly none of this is new, and many thinkers trace it to the move from hunter gathering and into agriculture - the first instance of the desire for power over nature in place of organic participation.
Be that as it may, it clearly isn't new. My only contention is that this ancient sickness has reached an apogee in modern times, and I don't think I could definitively prove that.
In the final analysis, all I can - and wish - to do is offer my "lived experience" as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary.
If someone does not find it attractive or compelling, then the last thing I would want to do is compel or coerce such a person!
Everyone's spiritual needs are different - someone like your son may not be ready to consider alternatives and may be at a stage in his life where participating in modern life is exactly what he needs to support his growth. And he may never wish to consider alternatives - that choice must be respected too.
I suppose, my writing is most suitable to people who are indeed unhappy with modern life but do not find enough social and spiritual support.
Sure, we are all aware of alternatives in the ancient spiritual traditions and in recent movements like hippies - but it's incredibly supportive to find people now doing and talking about these things, and not just in some abstract past.
One thing I absolutely do agree with you is that everyone has the right to make their own choice, even if that means staying in the Machine, and everyone should be treated with respect and dignity whatever their choice. That's actually not true.
Iain Mcgilchrist in his Things book had an entire fairly large appendix showing the large number of eminent scientists who developed spiritual beliefs the deeper they got into science.Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen, @Colin Wright
That’s OK. It’s not very important for me to stop you from believing that we must change the world 🙂
It’s much more important to see that we have similar views with regards to enjoying contact with nature and to discuss our different approaches as to how and why.
How things change, by the way. It doesn’t feel like it was such a long time ago when my father struggled with all his might to prevent my pursuing an alternative way of life. Now I have the opposite problem with my two adult children: they want to lead a conventional life. But what I learned from the experience of the battle with my father is not that an alternative way of life is necessarily better. Rather, that I should let them choose by themselves and just try to lead by example.
Russian planes and helicopters such as the Mi and KA series use turbines manufactured by Sich in Ukraine. Maintenance is going to be tough. Any other Russian supply chains originate in Ukraine (tank gun barrels for one I saw in the Russian langauge business press last week).
I am getting many good pointers on books here lately.
We really need an Unz Review book rec section. For instance: Foucault, like Nietzsche, is surprisingly worth reading. Don't let the fact that these philosophers seem to have been degenerate nutcases make you underestimate them, but don't forget it, either.
Fiction: I just finished going through Wuthering Heights. I am surprised by how much AaronB would like it, as it can be interpreted among other things as an allegory of power-- its origin in pain, its development in acquisitiveness, and, in the renewal of the new year at the end of the book, its ultimate failure.
I have also gotten a few good movie recommendations on here. My family and I are currently watching Vadachennai, which is a commercial Tamil film that is so far not half as bad as I expected, though it is not particularly deep. Sinhalese films are often very good: I was very affected by Oba Nathuwa Oba Ekka ("With You, Without You"). Slavs on here should like it as it is based on a Dostoevsky story.
Χριστός ἀνέστη!Replies: @songbird
Wuthering Heights may have the best prose of any novel that I have ever read. To my mind, it is just dripping with genius, and especially quite a bit above any other female writer that I have ever read. (including the best-regarded) OTOH, it must also be the most horribly melodramatic book that I have ever read, and, on that basis, I think it would be torture to most readers, including, at least as I imagine, Aaron B. (though perhaps not? All depends on whether he changes his mind on Dickens)
Years ago, I did read a religious tract by Sikhs, but it was poorly translated. Most of my knowledge of them actually comes from George MacDonald Fraser. His crassness can get tiresome, but he was very knowledgeable about history, and it can be a learning experience to read the explanatory notes at the end of his Flashman novels.
Maybe it's due for another reading.
I think it used to be standard practice to reread classics when one is older and has a more developed and mature take on the world.
Maybe it's time for me to do that - haven't read the classics in ages.
I don't necessarily dislike melodrama, and what I disliked in Dickens was the lack of what I'd call "masculine adventure", and what I thought was the sentimental attitude towards misfortune, poverty, etc.
But these are the attitudes of youth, and was before I had any interest in spirituality. Reading Dickens through the eyes of spirituality I am sure will give me a completely different take.
I'm also renewing my interest in DH Lawrence, who was a great critic of the Machine and modernity - he seems more topical now than ever!Replies: @Yevardian
You make many valid points, although overall I do not think I can agree with you. But I do not think this is something that can be proved by arguments. Ultimately this is about "lived experience".
While I utilize logical arguments in a variety of ways to support my position, none of my arguments are airtight, and there is certainly room to reasonably disagree.
While I cannot "demolish" your counter-arguments against me, I would like to make a few - not very strong but perhaps interesting - points :)
With regards to quantum mechanics - it's true that the "indeterminacy" exists on the subatomic level, while larger bodies seem to behave with a fair amount of predictability.
However, this might support the view that matter, as a whole, is simply "choosing" to manifest fairly regular patterns - and it also leaves room for surprises on the margins.
Logically, a deterministic universe rests on the idea that bodies at rest stay at rest, unless acted upon by an external force - but this is an unproven axiom, and the opposite may well be true.
Feynman said he couldn't understand Quantum mechanics because it violated logic and common sense - a medieval mystic would have no trouble "understanding" it :)
But clearly, insofar as understanding refers to grasping reality through reason, it is not understandable - yet true. And that should surely tell us something about reasons relationship to reality.
With regards to mental illness - or spiritual sickness as I would call it - you are certainly correct that this isn't unique to our age.
Nor is the Machine unique to our age. It can be seen already in ancient Egypt and Babylon, etc. All the worlds ancient spiritual traditions talk of mankind being "sick - 2,500 years ago the Buddha described man as fundamentally sick and needing to be cured.
So certainly none of this is new, and many thinkers trace it to the move from hunter gathering and into agriculture - the first instance of the desire for power over nature in place of organic participation.
Be that as it may, it clearly isn't new. My only contention is that this ancient sickness has reached an apogee in modern times, and I don't think I could definitively prove that.
In the final analysis, all I can - and wish - to do is offer my "lived experience" as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary.
If someone does not find it attractive or compelling, then the last thing I would want to do is compel or coerce such a person!
Everyone's spiritual needs are different - someone like your son may not be ready to consider alternatives and may be at a stage in his life where participating in modern life is exactly what he needs to support his growth. And he may never wish to consider alternatives - that choice must be respected too.
I suppose, my writing is most suitable to people who are indeed unhappy with modern life but do not find enough social and spiritual support.
Sure, we are all aware of alternatives in the ancient spiritual traditions and in recent movements like hippies - but it's incredibly supportive to find people now doing and talking about these things, and not just in some abstract past.
One thing I absolutely do agree with you is that everyone has the right to make their own choice, even if that means staying in the Machine, and everyone should be treated with respect and dignity whatever their choice. That's actually not true.
Iain Mcgilchrist in his Things book had an entire fairly large appendix showing the large number of eminent scientists who developed spiritual beliefs the deeper they got into science.Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen, @Colin Wright
I’ve seen survey results that show that although overall numbers of believers are low among university research scientists, stereotypes hold. Physcists tend to be more believing in a God – more than the general public in the survey; Biologists tend more towards committed atheism.
_________
Elon could probably influence opinion more efficiently by investing $43 billion in building mass-drivers on the moon.
That was a feature of the Manstein v Popov and Kleist v Bagramyan battles.
It is amazing how military geography tends to stay the same from era to era.
The USSR had great trouble with Kharkov, which was originally built as a Russian fort to stop Crimea Tartars from raiding northwards into Moscow. The Germans and Russians fought several battles center
Ed on Kharkov, Izyum and Barankove. The military geography abides.
It seems that there are definitely factors at work here above and beyond mere recognition of the problem, although that is a factor.
Would you argue that there is no phenomenon really going on at all?Replies: @A123, @Mikel
No, I wouldn’t dare say that. There is something going on, certainly, but I wouldn’t rush to judge what the cause is. Mental suffering is arguably worse than the physical one. If there was an obvious remedy, researchers would have found it long ago.
As you say, mental illnesses now are certainly more visible than in times past (all over the western world, as far as I can see) and we also feel a more urgent need to combat them, which perhaps leads to more people feeling that they are “sick”, whereas in the past the same conditions would not have led to medical treatment. People just had to find some adjustment to their problems by themselves.
What medical science is certain about is that most mental illnesses have a genetic component, which means that in some form or another they have always been with us. I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. How people coped with these diseases across the ages is difficult to know. As AaronB said, we live in an age where we try to avoid suffering at all costs, while people in the past were more stoic. They didn’t have any other choice either.
Another thing to consider before rushing to conclude that modern society is all crap is that in the past natural selection weeded out sickness in a brutal way. Someone suffering from certain mental illnesses in a hunter-gatherer environment was more unlikely to survive and thus pass on his genetic condition. But for several generations now, especially in the West, people survive and procreate almost regardless of their fitness so we should naturally expect to see more diseases of all kinds only on that account.
" I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. " - If true, this is only because Eskimos now sit in their little houses drink alcohol and watch TV. A nomadic Eskimo had no occasion to realize that he felt anxiety as everybody felt anxiety when there was a polar bear nearby or there was scarcity of food which was 50% of time.
Biological explanation are appealing because they are reductive and simple. This does not mean they are true. Environmental narratives are much more complex and require much more nuanced and subtle reasoning and thus they do not appeal to troglodytes who are enamored with genes.
Then there is the most philosophical aspect of mental diseases which is related to our language and narratives that we now posses that were absent and not available in the past. We can describe our experiences in so many different colors and express minutiae of distinct differences creating micro slots of notions and classifications that did not exist in the past. And you can see it all on TV - and learn to mimic what you see.
I believe that anxiety and depression on the other hand, have increased dramatically. Partly I think it is because many people have the ability to indulge these destructive attitudes, which increases and deepens their hold. I think there is a benefit to having to being compelled by life's realities to "get over it" when it comes to our own existential insecurities. This is less and less expected by society, so inclined individuals are enabled to indulge their morbid fascination with themselves.
We have also dismantled many of the structures which kept these feelings in check. Religion often provided a useful sense of perspective (It's not all about you!), and community and cultural identity gave the majority of individuals a comforting baseline to default to. As much as anything I think it's very difficult psychically to expect every person to be a self-defining self-actualizing individual. There are always some who break the mold in any age, but I think the majority of people need and want guidelines. The absence of these in society can lead to feelings of drift and anxiety. This is true, and I think that it does lead to a greater incidence of negative traits being passed on. I'm not sure that this is a net kindness since it seems to entail a downward spiral as society is increasingly structured around the unwell. It seems to me that one could make a compelling "anti-vax" argument on these grounds. I'm not sure I would agree with it ethically, but I think it would be a compelling argument.
If we ever have a large scale collapse resulting from over-extended modern resource management I wouldn't be surprised if all the avoided premature deaths and resulting population explosion will be just an act of kicking the can down the road.Replies: @AaronB, @silviosilver, @Mikel
Years ago, I did read a religious tract by Sikhs, but it was poorly translated. Most of my knowledge of them actually comes from George MacDonald Fraser. His crassness can get tiresome, but he was very knowledgeable about history, and it can be a learning experience to read the explanatory notes at the end of his Flashman novels.Replies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
Mountain of Light was pretty good stuff.
Biologists often seem to say “Things are only as good as they need to be.” They tend not to see the perfection in things but rather the flaws. Perhaps, it is easier to see the perfection in physical laws than in our mortal coils.
_________
Elon could probably influence opinion more efficiently by investing \$43 billion in building mass-drivers on the moon.
As you say, mental illnesses now are certainly more visible than in times past (all over the western world, as far as I can see) and we also feel a more urgent need to combat them, which perhaps leads to more people feeling that they are "sick", whereas in the past the same conditions would not have led to medical treatment. People just had to find some adjustment to their problems by themselves.
What medical science is certain about is that most mental illnesses have a genetic component, which means that in some form or another they have always been with us. I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. How people coped with these diseases across the ages is difficult to know. As AaronB said, we live in an age where we try to avoid suffering at all costs, while people in the past were more stoic. They didn't have any other choice either.
Another thing to consider before rushing to conclude that modern society is all crap is that in the past natural selection weeded out sickness in a brutal way. Someone suffering from certain mental illnesses in a hunter-gatherer environment was more unlikely to survive and thus pass on his genetic condition. But for several generations now, especially in the West, people survive and procreate almost regardless of their fitness so we should naturally expect to see more diseases of all kinds only on that account.Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa
I do not agree. While mental disease have a genetic component it’s very polygenic and thus it is more resilient in the process of selection. Furthermore mental disease manifestation often occur in early adulthood meaning that when people procreated at much younger age than now genes associated with mental diseases were more likely to be passed to the next generation in hunter gatherer societies than now.
” I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. ” – If true, this is only because Eskimos now sit in their little houses drink alcohol and watch TV. A nomadic Eskimo had no occasion to realize that he felt anxiety as everybody felt anxiety when there was a polar bear nearby or there was scarcity of food which was 50% of time.
Biological explanation are appealing because they are reductive and simple. This does not mean they are true. Environmental narratives are much more complex and require much more nuanced and subtle reasoning and thus they do not appeal to troglodytes who are enamored with genes.
Then there is the most philosophical aspect of mental diseases which is related to our language and narratives that we now posses that were absent and not available in the past. We can describe our experiences in so many different colors and express minutiae of distinct differences creating micro slots of notions and classifications that did not exist in the past. And you can see it all on TV – and learn to mimic what you see.
It takes into account Glonass positioning, wind, humidity, etc, guides the weapons platform to the point of release, and releases the bomb load automatically.Replies: @Dmitry
This use of unguided weapons, even if there is a new bombing sight for Su-25, Tu-22 and Tu-95, requires planes to be close to their target.
This means they are vulnerable to being shot from the ground.
As the planes do not have modern electronics for jamming or stealth. It’s just not possible to fly them in a more dangerous area, like Western Ukraine.
So they are limited to using expensive stand-off missiles (Kh-555 and Kh-101) from Tu-22, from airspace of Belarus. They can destroy fixed targets where they already have the geolocation, but the quantity of the conventional bombing available is very limited and expensive in areas where there is still air defense and the radar operating.
The use of language of cauldron in Russian, is based on Heinz Guderian (a famous German military general and strategist).
This language would be maybe relevant if you are recreating “Blitzkrieg”, but there was nothing like this in the war so far, with multiple echelon of advances, where rapid movement of first echelon of soldiers are trapping enemy forces behind themselves, allowing a second echelon to eliminate the trapped forces.
As a result of the speed of the movements by the first echelon, the enemy group behind the first echelon of attack, would be still “hot” (fighting) the second echelon, therefore there is the use of the metaphor of Guderian of “cauldron” (it is an encircled area that contains very “hot” fighting inside it, as the forces are trapped by the “Blitzkrieg” advance).
What we are talking about in this war so far, is some slow “encirclement”, where forces would be surrounded by all sides and would slowly “freeze” without supplies.
Especially in Donbass, the Ukrainian positions are defensive. Maybe it is more like you need to find a way to avoid the Germany “Gustav Line” in Italy in the Second World War, by moving around its sides. It wouldn’t be “cauldron”, but something like the surrounding of the German forces at the “Gustav line”. (In “Operation Diadem” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Diadem )
They have a sense of humor:
I remember the days when Martyanov and Saker explained here to us all how the Black Sea was a Russian lake, NATO ships were just sitting ducks, Russia could easily put an end to the Ukrainian regime by arresting its leaders in a special operation,... they were so serious and self-confident in their assessments, using arcane technical terms and equations even.
There is a reason why AK stopped repeating the "shock and disbelief" mantra a long time ago. Instead, he's now talking on Twitter about the "white pill" of the Moskva "big L" being that if a Neptune can do that, imagine what the much better Russian missiles can do. While regularly musing about what severe pains Russia would deserve if it failed to defeat Ukraine.
I have actually started to think that there may not be an oncoming second phase of this war. The second phase perhaps is what we're already seeing: a slow and painful gain of territory in Donbass while Ukraine keeps receiving billions in sophisticated weapons without Russia apparently being able to do much about it.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @sudden death
Looks of those rough seas have surfaced rather quickly 😉
https://www.patriotspoint.org/news-and-events/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/cole_attack2.gif
There is no comparable impact damage to the Moskva in your picture. It could be on the other side, but why would the source not share the better image?
Also, the damage vastly exceeds what a Neptune (150kg warhead) could deliver.
Something does not add up. Was there sabotage and/or crew negligence on the Moskva?
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @sudden death, @james wilson
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1515783365663735809Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
Victoria Nuland is the nominal top American dog such as it is. Her office is the brainquarters.
Victoria’s Secret is a retail underwear store owned by zion oligarch Leslie Wexner mentor of sex traffic (defunct) Jeffrey Epstein.
Supposedly some of the pictures in the Victoria’s Secret catalog are whores that are out of your and mine and damn near everybody else’s price range. There are unpublicized court documents that Prince Andrew picked Virginia Roberts’ picture out of a clandestine (barely legal) prostitute or rape-victim catalog promoted by the Victoria’s Secret owner’s agent.
Hard to believe I know but for some reason the authorities are secretive regarding the facts needed for us little guys in the public to evaluate. Who knows. For sure there aren’t any tank crews in combat that know. Maybe their commanding officer’s commanding officer’s commanding officer’s commanding officer’s commanding officer’s commanding officer knows and he passed down an order to graffiti up that tank in such manner?
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1515818747398955009Replies: @A123
If the damage was caused by an external high explosive, there should be a “punched in” area. The USS Cole bomb damage looked like this:
There is no comparable impact damage to the Moskva in your picture. It could be on the other side, but why would the source not share the better image?
Also, the damage vastly exceeds what a Neptune (150kg warhead) could deliver.
Something does not add up. Was there sabotage and/or crew negligence on the Moskva?
PEACE 😇
IMO, crazy design, having those things lined up, out on deck, on such a big hull. I believe it is a relic of Cold War thinking, where a lot of the fighting was pretend, or through disposable proxies. It has MAD written all over it. The design implicitly says to me that nobody thought it would ever be fired upon.Replies: @A123
https://www.patriotspoint.org/news-and-events/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/cole_attack2.gif
There is no comparable impact damage to the Moskva in your picture. It could be on the other side, but why would the source not share the better image?
Also, the damage vastly exceeds what a Neptune (150kg warhead) could deliver.
Something does not add up. Was there sabotage and/or crew negligence on the Moskva?
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @sudden death, @james wilson
I’d suppose that a missile was targeted to hit one of the P-500 Bazalts.
IMO, crazy design, having those things lined up, out on deck, on such a big hull. I believe it is a relic of Cold War thinking, where a lot of the fighting was pretend, or through disposable proxies. It has MAD written all over it. The design implicitly says to me that nobody thought it would ever be fired upon.
Alas, I do not have any mechanical details.
______________________
@Sudden Death Trying to move while a hole is beneath the waterline? That sounds like a very risky option.
Perhaps they were trying to lift a hole on the far side above the waterline?
______________________
There are questions that need answers.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @songbird
No, it didn’t. Though it does claim the 1776 American Revolution was a planned false split between the US/UK, and that someday America and Britain would reunite, and America would then take the lead.
One of the New Rome’s two authors, Theodore Poesche, spent a year in London in 1850 having fled the failed German 1848 Revolution. It so happens that 1850 was the same year that the powerful British Foreign Secretary (and future PM) Lord Palmerston would launch his ‘New Rome’ campaign from London as elaborated upon below by an author named Tarpley. [I don’t agree with everything in regards to Tarpley, he can be a mixed bag, but I think his nuts and bolts of the history of the time are correct here.]
I’ve linked below a recent Atlantic article about a circa 2006 book published in Russia called The Third Empire, Russia as it Ought to Be, which tells it’s readers that Russia will someday defeat the US in a great war. The article calls this book a ‘manual’ for Putin, but says nothing about the US having it’s own manual, the near completely memory holed The New Rome, which tells how it will be the US that is to defeat Russia in a future war.
My concern is that these two respective books may represent what could be termed a ‘suggestion’ to the people of the United States and Russia to someday fight each other, but that someone (or something) is intending that rather one or the other prevail in creating a glorious future empire for themselves as the book’s foretell, that the United States and Russia are instead intended to destroy each other, a bit like the plotline to an old 1961 Twilight Zone episode entitled ‘Two’.
People have their refusal.
http://tarpley.net/online-books/against-oligarchy/lord-palmerstons-multicultural-human-zoo/
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-kremlin-foreign-policy-strategy/629388/#:~:text=Mikhail Yuriev’s 2006 utopian novel%2C The Third Empire%3A,same year%2C and Russia’s current assault on Ukraine.
https://medium.com/as-vast-as-space-and-as-timeless-as-infinity/twilight-zone-episode-review-3-1-two-4bd43f216be8
‘…And yet if you ask the average person, I am sure they would say the solution is to try and eliminate suffering even more.’
Tell us about the suffering you’ve experienced, Aaron.
I’m curious as to from whence you speak.
Well, if the ‘modern’ methods of alleviating psychological suffering have, as you claim, only succeeded in prolonging or ingraining it, then a return to the older methods – which I approve of, let me be clear – would result in this suffering being alleviated. So unless you want to say “bad luck, you tried the modern methods, now you’re stuck suffering forever,” you too are arguing for renewed efforts to eliminate suffering – albeit via methods at odds with the prevailing paradigm.
But what I am advocating for is not the elimination of suffering, as the modern world wants, but merely it's amelioration.
Aiming for zero suffering creates more suffering, while accepting suffering paradoxically lessens it.
However, even more than just the amelioration of suffering, I want to preserve suffering as an indispensable element in growth and life.
Instead of simply rejecting suffering, we need to integrate it and understand the role it plays in our development, both physical and spiritual.
In a sense, the entire "project" of modernity is about creating a world without suffering, discomfort, and inconvenience - problem is, we wilt and die under such conditions :) We don't thrive in such a "utopia".
I think it's extremely important to introduce "stresses" into ones life and not become too comfortable.
You make many valid points, although overall I do not think I can agree with you. But I do not think this is something that can be proved by arguments. Ultimately this is about "lived experience".
While I utilize logical arguments in a variety of ways to support my position, none of my arguments are airtight, and there is certainly room to reasonably disagree.
While I cannot "demolish" your counter-arguments against me, I would like to make a few - not very strong but perhaps interesting - points :)
With regards to quantum mechanics - it's true that the "indeterminacy" exists on the subatomic level, while larger bodies seem to behave with a fair amount of predictability.
However, this might support the view that matter, as a whole, is simply "choosing" to manifest fairly regular patterns - and it also leaves room for surprises on the margins.
Logically, a deterministic universe rests on the idea that bodies at rest stay at rest, unless acted upon by an external force - but this is an unproven axiom, and the opposite may well be true.
Feynman said he couldn't understand Quantum mechanics because it violated logic and common sense - a medieval mystic would have no trouble "understanding" it :)
But clearly, insofar as understanding refers to grasping reality through reason, it is not understandable - yet true. And that should surely tell us something about reasons relationship to reality.
With regards to mental illness - or spiritual sickness as I would call it - you are certainly correct that this isn't unique to our age.
Nor is the Machine unique to our age. It can be seen already in ancient Egypt and Babylon, etc. All the worlds ancient spiritual traditions talk of mankind being "sick - 2,500 years ago the Buddha described man as fundamentally sick and needing to be cured.
So certainly none of this is new, and many thinkers trace it to the move from hunter gathering and into agriculture - the first instance of the desire for power over nature in place of organic participation.
Be that as it may, it clearly isn't new. My only contention is that this ancient sickness has reached an apogee in modern times, and I don't think I could definitively prove that.
In the final analysis, all I can - and wish - to do is offer my "lived experience" as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary.
If someone does not find it attractive or compelling, then the last thing I would want to do is compel or coerce such a person!
Everyone's spiritual needs are different - someone like your son may not be ready to consider alternatives and may be at a stage in his life where participating in modern life is exactly what he needs to support his growth. And he may never wish to consider alternatives - that choice must be respected too.
I suppose, my writing is most suitable to people who are indeed unhappy with modern life but do not find enough social and spiritual support.
Sure, we are all aware of alternatives in the ancient spiritual traditions and in recent movements like hippies - but it's incredibly supportive to find people now doing and talking about these things, and not just in some abstract past.
One thing I absolutely do agree with you is that everyone has the right to make their own choice, even if that means staying in the Machine, and everyone should be treated with respect and dignity whatever their choice. That's actually not true.
Iain Mcgilchrist in his Things book had an entire fairly large appendix showing the large number of eminent scientists who developed spiritual beliefs the deeper they got into science.Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen, @Colin Wright
‘…In the final analysis, all I can – and wish – to do is offer my “lived experience” as an alternative to modern life and my thoughtful commentary on the metaphysical significance of my experience. But the experience is primary…’
You’re a hoot, Aaron, you really are.
You think we could get Ron to post all your comments in a thread? It would be convenient.
Coling Wright All Comments All Years = 16,604
I had to force myself to go to bed last night because I was drunk on history. First, listening to a podcast of a local historian talk about my grandfather's village during the Irish War of Independence. Next because I was reading an old book on an e-reader and had reached a section discussing the opinions of country peasants about Travelers. Before that it was about changelings, and some of it was genuinely creepy.Replies: @silviosilver
Have you seen the horror movie by that name, The Changeling (1980), with the great George C. Scott? I didn’t think it was outright scary, but I enjoyed the building sense of creepiness.
Atmospheric. Good performances, and locations. I was expecting it to be a regular haunted house story, but I appreciated (spoilers)how it tied to things outside the house. If I had to nitpick a little:
1.) two baptism medals: it didn't made sense to me, when I was watching it, as the murder was probably premeditated, so he should have grabbed it. But I guess I can forgive it, as it could be explained away - if he forgot to remove it in the heat of the moment, before dumping the body.
My second point I make more because it amuses me:
2.) I felt like someone was cucked, but I can't figure out who. Maybe, the ghost, as he did not get his revenge on the guy that killed him, or his natural progeny, who carried his evil genes, but rather on an adoptee, who did not take part in the killing. Or, maybe, the murderer because he had no natural progeny to which to funnel the inheritance.Replies: @silviosilver
https://www.patriotspoint.org/news-and-events/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/cole_attack2.gif
There is no comparable impact damage to the Moskva in your picture. It could be on the other side, but why would the source not share the better image?
Also, the damage vastly exceeds what a Neptune (150kg warhead) could deliver.
Something does not add up. Was there sabotage and/or crew negligence on the Moskva?
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @sudden death, @james wilson
The seawater level in this pic seems to be way above the waterline, whole ship is leaning on its side, so the impact hole (if it was on this side near/at the waterline) may be hidden under the water?
You're a hoot, Aaron, you really are.
You think we could get Ron to post all your comments in a thread? It would be convenient.Replies: @silviosilver
AaronB All Comments All Years = 8,010
Coling Wright All Comments All Years = 16,604
_____
Sweden is surprisingly undemocratic for all its talk of egalitarianism (no ballot on NATO)
_____
I think technology can be used to return to tradition. I've read several old books about the Old Country, using technology, that it would be nearly impossible to have read otherwise.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Barbarossa
It is possible, but on balance I think it will swing overwhelmingly in the other direction, for the reason that you mention in a subsequent comment; too much choice.
Also my point would be that tradition must necessarily be an action performed and sustained by a group, so the reading may preserve the memory but it doesn’t continue the tradition as a living entity.
Tangentially, are you familiar with the Carmina Gadelica by Alexander Carmichael? The prayers and incantations, together with his notes provide an invaluable window into the lost world of Gaelic thought and practice.
You should check them out too. I think you would greatly appreciate the spiritual perspective.
Some weeks ago, I was reading about poets and I came across one story that still sticks in my imagination: there was a poet walking along a lonely road, that took shelter under a bush, while it was raining. When the rain was not getting through, he praised the bush so that it grew thick and luxurious. When a single drop got through, he started cursing the bush, so that it wilted, and the downpour soaked him. We may be past the time that books can be an organizing force for culture. At least, in a systematic and group-orientated way, not considering the effect on the individual.
What seems to be a more potent organizing force is film. The bad thing about film is that it takes resources to make an engaging film, and these can be beyond the reach of small countries, and, moreover, film seems to be more of a commercial endeavor, geared towards maximizing profit. Without a nationalist strategic framework, it is probably inherently globalist as well as morally degenerate.
There was a 1974 movie entitled Zardoz which featured a future people that had the technology to have everything be automated. However, they willfully chose to do some physical labor as apparently they thought it healthy, ie making and baking their own bread, plowing their farm fields with a horse and plow, and horse and buggy instead of cars.
A little bit Amish I suppose. I respect that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zardoz
https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*KuG6i7NCpDeSqr35.jpg http://tarpley.net/online-books/against-oligarchy/lord-palmerstons-multicultural-human-zoo/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-kremlin-foreign-policy-strategy/629388/#:~:text=Mikhail Yuriev’s 2006 utopian novel%2C The Third Empire%3A,same year%2C and Russia’s current assault on Ukraine.https://medium.com/as-vast-as-space-and-as-timeless-as-infinity/twilight-zone-episode-review-3-1-two-4bd43f216be8Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Pretty impressive foresight, but a lot of those made in Germany haven’t come to pass (precisely because they are cast into the role of losers with Kaiser Wilhelm/Hitler). Very little have been written for China or India and this is what scares me.
The New Rome is completely memory holed in the US, ie it's not spoken of in the corporate mass media on TV or radio. Even those late night esoteric radio talk shows (that talk about most everything) I can just about guarantee have never spoken of it. I only heard about the book when reading other 19th century books that talked about it.
As for The Third Empire about Russia, it too is quite obscure. Though I'd hypothesized about such a book possibly existing prior, I only heard about it's actual existance because Philip Owen mentioned it recently in one of AK's threads here.
Going by that as a guide, there might be similar 'lost' books about India or China which attempt to foretell their future in old libraries or dusty museums. If such exist it would be interesting to hear what they might say.
IMO, crazy design, having those things lined up, out on deck, on such a big hull. I believe it is a relic of Cold War thinking, where a lot of the fighting was pretend, or through disposable proxies. It has MAD written all over it. The design implicitly says to me that nobody thought it would ever be fired upon.Replies: @A123
The USSR had periodic issues with bad rocket fuel. My understanding is that if a “weapon ignites but fails to leave the tube” the heat causes the launcher to detach itself from the ship. Everything on fire gets dumped into the sea.
Alas, I do not have any mechanical details.
______________________
udden Death
Trying to move while a hole is beneath the waterline? That sounds like a very risky option.
Perhaps they were trying to lift a hole on the far side above the waterline?
______________________
There are questions that need answers.
PEACE 😇
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicH3ZlCryd1WiM6jDkBizt7b4Aieeif_9Vz7QNS6yjeNDsloGOd75rrXMH6lkt09HTChRPJUktqpszG6-IJ3ni1NRSwtE71aEixd_Vc3mIF2O9kWnOqw4WDRvQmxL4th2ak0m4GZdmKE24SMdgpZmDnXzHZE3RQEjIqEaJIn7XpK8YhKQmlE9ifk2O/s2200/35i.png
From what I understand, the ship wasn't actually being used to fire cruise missiles at the time, but for its anti-air capabilities, so it was probably fully loaded.
I'd suppose a missile strike would compromise the ditch ability, maybe causing the fuel from the Bazalts to leak out and burn through the deck. But I might be mistaken could have been a hit above the waterline.
During the Falklands, the HMS Sheffield is thought to have sunk without the exocet's warhead actually detonating. It was the fuel from the rocket motor that did the ship in. Though, it did take a few days to sink.
I didn’t look up on what similar predictions was made in Germany and China but couldn’t delete the comment in time, so apologies for talking without a clear idea in mind.
A lot of those was also written in late Qing times where China pursued successful economic reforms and becoming a force for international peace, but one title that stands out is Bigehuan Zhuren’s New Era describing an apocalyptic World War based on the clash of civilizations between the West and China that ends in chemical WMD usage by both sides of the conflict.
I can't recall every detail, but I remember reading that almost as soon as the British Empire touched China (late 18th century perhaps) that suddenly China too had its own secret society (the Triads?) that had almost identical rituals to Scottish Rite Freemasonry. I'm thinking it maybe Freemasonry which is the transmission route of some (many?) of these relatively modern, but similar, end of world stories including possibly the New Rome.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
That I was prepared for. There is on the whole an active hostility and opposition to my way of thinking - and among several of my friends and acquaintances, a concerted and aggressive effort to "pull me back in" towards materialism, a life centred on money, and an obsession with physical survival.
It was this experience that led me to finally give credence to the old idea of "spiritual warfare". I thought my position would be seen as eccentric, perhaps absurd, but I would be regarded as essentially innocuous and unthreatening.
After all, if I want less money and have less ambition, there is less competition.
Boy was I wrong. It seems certain people are motivated to destroy my attitude to life even if by it's very nature it lessens competition for them. This kind of "irrational" attack, I cannot help feel, suggests the battle is spiritual.
There is another way my alternative attitude gets me into trouble - if you are no longer committed to modern civilization and have less ambition, you will stand out starkly for not being "serious" about work even if you are diligent and competent at your job, as the modern mythology says that nothing is more important than economic production, and one attitude must reflect this.
No longer being obsessed with survival, my easy going and "light hearted" attitude towards life has also earned me surprising enmity and severe backlash in NY. Fear of death is also a sacred value to modern society, and to not have an appropriately serious and "heavy" provokes spiritual attack, I now see.
Well, the picture is not wholly bad :)
There are some people who have a certain amount of sympathy and understanding for my position.
But on the whole the spiritual life cannot be well lived in one of the major ideological centers of modernity.Replies: @Barbarossa
I suppose that you represent a strange and disturbing aberration in the Big Apple. It sounds from previous comments as though you have found a reasonably accommodating employer at least and it allows you a great deal of freedom in the grand scheme of things.
To share an amusing story…When my wife and I were buying our land and planning our initial little cabin, we were living in what was basically an ex-urb sort of area where I worked in a custom stair shop. I was probably the oddest person there, doing things like sitting at lunch with a small personal carving project while they talked about sports.
When I explained to some of them how we were going to build this tiny cabin in the woods, but didn’t have money initially for things like plumbing or electrical they were politely bemused. However, the lack of plumbing, which was more my concern, got no mention while the lack of electricity was a major sticking point, though again not for any of the reasons I might have guessed.
The incredulous question came, “How are you going to watch TV?” When I explained that I wasn’t going to be watching any TV, the second incredulous question arose. “Then what are you going to DO?” I told them I would probably not be lacking for things to do and in any case there are always books.
I always found that response very funny, since TV was probably dead last of the potential issues on my mind. In the end I was glad to be out of that area. I got along fine with most people, but I was very much the oddball! On second thought, I might still be an oddball, I just live in area now with a preponderance of oddballs.
https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/AIA2011092202-chart1.png
While Israel also has a split, it is quite different. The "secularized bourgeois" Jews of Israel are strongly nationalist, believe in security & military defense, etc...
The only group in Israel that even vaguely resembles the American Left is Labor/Gesher. In 2019 they only managed to capture 6 of 120 seats (~5% of the population).
https://theglobepost.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Israeli-elections.jpg
Indigenous Palestinian Jews view Russia with a national security perspective. Iran is an existential threat. Ukraine is not. Given Russia's presence in Syria, why would Palestinian Jews blow up that relationship by backing Zelensky?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2011092202/Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
Most Russians outside Russia, are not supporting the Russian authorities, certainly not this year.
It is related to social class, age and education level, because for typical people, the support for the authorities requires a lot of information restriction and lack of scepticism.
Russians living in Western bloc countries are including large young, middle class and upper class proportions who have access to many sources of media. Quite a good proportion of Russians in the West, are middle class or more elite. Most people with high incomes and high education level (many with postgraduate, technical education level). There is also a filter for people to leave the country, which shows their revealed preferences.
In Israel, the proportion of support for Russia could be higher, because Israel is the only Western bloc country with open borders immigration policy with Russia (for people with Jewish roots, under “Law of Return”), with higher proportion of lower class, non-elite immigrants. Israel receives the lower class of immigration.
Russian and Ukrainian immigrants in Israel have below average income level (it’s very different to Russians in Western Europe).
There are a lot more lower class and less educated immigrants in Israel, compared to other Western bloc countries. For this reason, Israel has received some problems from its immigrants. There are also a lot more older immigrants, as they had earlier immigration, and many pensioners (with “Law of Return” they can attain residence visas for retired parents and grandparents).
In previous years, when I had last visited Israel, you could see a lot of Russian flags. The unassimilated immigrants used to add Russian flags on the balconies. There were a lot of old immigrants in Israel, who had immigrated decades ago. If you see drunk or homeless people in Israel, they are often immigrants from Russia/Ukraine.
But still the majority of Russians in Israel would be unlikely supporting the Russian authorities (and the Ukrainians, by comparison, will be mostly supporting the Ukrainian government). Younger people who integrate to the new country, less, than older people.
Israel also has hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Georgians, who have much higher rate of support to Ukraine’s government, partly as those have become much more nationalist cultures than Russia.
–
With YouTube, you can see the protests in Israel for Ukraine and against the war.
Those two books are very obscure, which reinforces my belief that information is to an extent controlled.
The New Rome is completely memory holed in the US, ie it’s not spoken of in the corporate mass media on TV or radio. Even those late night esoteric radio talk shows (that talk about most everything) I can just about guarantee have never spoken of it. I only heard about the book when reading other 19th century books that talked about it.
As for The Third Empire about Russia, it too is quite obscure. Though I’d hypothesized about such a book possibly existing prior, I only heard about it’s actual existance because Philip Owen mentioned it recently in one of AK’s threads here.
Going by that as a guide, there might be similar ‘lost’ books about India or China which attempt to foretell their future in old libraries or dusty museums. If such exist it would be interesting to hear what they might say.
Thanks. It seems many a people have developed such ‘myths’. As stated, my concern is that someone (or something) operating behind the scenes might be attempting to manipulate the peoples of the world and humanity as a whole with such ‘stories’, and not necessarily for their good.
To add to this paragraph. It’s also related a lot to power.
When the authorities don’t have power on you (e.g. if you in Western Europe), your brain resets after some years, as you don’t feel any social or authoritative pressure on your views.
There is also in the consciousness of the immigrant, a sense of distance which feels like greater objectivity. It’s like a bookmark has formed from the previous life. Among immigrants, people are talking in a different way, like it was put through a filter or some kind of extraction process. Everyone starts saying e.g. “one thing I really didn’t like but we never noticed at the time was..” or “it’s strange how this thing seemed always normal”.
Although it’s not really objective, as it depends on what you find in the new countries, and the comparison is based in the divergence. If we all immigrated to India, your mind would probably extract many different things, than if you went to Switzerland or Singapore. Much of the negativity in the conversation of the immigrants to their previous country, is based on upgrading to unusually elite countries like those.
I find the timing (presumably late 19th century) interesting.
I can’t recall every detail, but I remember reading that almost as soon as the British Empire touched China (late 18th century perhaps) that suddenly China too had its own secret society (the Triads?) that had almost identical rituals to Scottish Rite Freemasonry. I’m thinking it maybe Freemasonry which is the transmission route of some (many?) of these relatively modern, but similar, end of world stories including possibly the New Rome.
I can't recall every detail, but I remember reading that almost as soon as the British Empire touched China (late 18th century perhaps) that suddenly China too had its own secret society (the Triads?) that had almost identical rituals to Scottish Rite Freemasonry. I'm thinking it maybe Freemasonry which is the transmission route of some (many?) of these relatively modern, but similar, end of world stories including possibly the New Rome.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
The ones I mentioned are written in the 20th century, the dozen of years before the Republic when reforming Qing dynasty was still taken as a serious possibility. The dates are often off (and a lot of predictions didn’t come to pass as usual) but enough of them are realized for your theory about those being manuals instead of simple predictions.
It could be just be sandboxing or groups taken on agendas after being inspired by those, maybe even some self-fulfillment as the telos of particular political or social institutions.
“my concern is that someone (or something) operating behind the scenes might be attempting to manipulate the peoples of the world and humanity” – The idée fixe that permeates many of your comments but not until now you have stated it explicitly. And I would opt for the “something” rather than the “someone” in your case as often you made observations about events that were outside of the causal chains of events that are part of how we understand the world operates. Common sense explanations do not satisfy you. You have an eye for the unusual and the bizarre which gives you a great pleasure when you spot them and no amount of rational arguments can dispel the charm and the grip of your finding so you keep them forever. Your mind is like the Mütter Museum of conspiracies.
The wishful thinking of some, as in not gonna happen.
The past month's events have been an icy cold shower for anyone with personal or professional connections to Russia who hasn't been deliberately burying their hand in the sand.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
Via non-war diplomacy, the Kiev regime could’ve gotten an autonomous Donbass, an agree to disagree on Crimea, as part of a deal seeing Ukraine not being a NATO beachhead.
Unfortunately I think both Ukraine and Russia are heading for a very hard fall with no immediate end in sight, whatever the short-term outcomes of this war. Even in the near-impossible scenario Ukraine manages to drive Russia from all its pre-feb.24 territory, it’s lost something like 5 million people.. from a rapidly aging population. But a big win for Poland if it manages to avoid a similar conflict in the near future.
The past month’s events have been an icy cold shower for anyone with personal or professional connections to Russia who hasn’t been deliberately burying their hand in the sand.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Alas, I do not have any mechanical details.
______________________
@Sudden Death Trying to move while a hole is beneath the waterline? That sounds like a very risky option.
Perhaps they were trying to lift a hole on the far side above the waterline?
______________________
There are questions that need answers.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @songbird
Looking at this pic of healthy Moskva from closer angle it can be seen there was quite enough room even below the white waterline where rocket could strike in theory at least:
The past month's events have been an icy cold shower for anyone with personal or professional connections to Russia who hasn't been deliberately burying their hand in the sand.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
… And why staging a military reunification of Taiwan anytime soon is totally misguided over a long-termist approach
Both sides could have used clever diplomacy but alas, Putin jumped the literal gun. If Putin’s objective had only been Donbas he would have just sent Wagner mercenaries into Donbas.
- implementation of the Minsk Protocol
- no NATO in Ukraine, or Ukraine in NATO
- agree to disagree on Crimea.
Russia advocated and waited long enough, as the Kiev regime became militarily stronger, plus the Banderite element.You know the related Clausweitz quote.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Come on man, who is paying your secondment?
Excellent point – you have a good eye for the paradoxes that govern reality 🙂
But what I am advocating for is not the elimination of suffering, as the modern world wants, but merely it’s amelioration.
Aiming for zero suffering creates more suffering, while accepting suffering paradoxically lessens it.
However, even more than just the amelioration of suffering, I want to preserve suffering as an indispensable element in growth and life.
Instead of simply rejecting suffering, we need to integrate it and understand the role it plays in our development, both physical and spiritual.
In a sense, the entire “project” of modernity is about creating a world without suffering, discomfort, and inconvenience – problem is, we wilt and die under such conditions 🙂 We don’t thrive in such a “utopia”.
I think it’s extremely important to introduce “stresses” into ones life and not become too comfortable.
It is more likely that Russians will cut the gas and oil before they will join. Finland is 100% dependent on Russian gas.
It is rather that Russia is “re-gathering the Russian lands”.
Everybody is a conspiracy theo-rizismist. If you don’t think Mossad did nine eleven you think that a fraternity of holocaust deniers is on the prowl who want to gas jews. Don’t call the man a stupid name. If you wish to criticize the point he is making then do that.
Ad hominem arguments do not convince anybody of anything that is paying attention.
Who runs the Mutter Museum? HMMMMMMM? : )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2C42p_8XfIReplies: @utu
Mossad might well have done the job. The distinction between Bin Laden and the CIA and MI6 is hazy enough to begin with
If I were Xi right now I’d sink a couple of cargo ships outside Taiwan. I’d do it sooner rather than later as well.
Sounds about as promising as the “regathering of the Carolingian lands”, or perhaps, the regathering of the “Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth lands”…the “regathering of the Scythian lands”. This current war shows the world how ridiculous Russian political through has become, mired in the muck of the 12th century. 🙂
Years ago, I did read a religious tract by Sikhs, but it was poorly translated. Most of my knowledge of them actually comes from George MacDonald Fraser. His crassness can get tiresome, but he was very knowledgeable about history, and it can be a learning experience to read the explanatory notes at the end of his Flashman novels.Replies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
I’ve read Wuthering Heights and enjoyed it tremendously (thanks RSDB for bringing it up).
Maybe it’s due for another reading.
I think it used to be standard practice to reread classics when one is older and has a more developed and mature take on the world.
Maybe it’s time for me to do that – haven’t read the classics in ages.
I don’t necessarily dislike melodrama, and what I disliked in Dickens was the lack of what I’d call “masculine adventure”, and what I thought was the sentimental attitude towards misfortune, poverty, etc.
But these are the attitudes of youth, and was before I had any interest in spirituality. Reading Dickens through the eyes of spirituality I am sure will give me a completely different take.
I’m also renewing my interest in DH Lawrence, who was a great critic of the Machine and modernity – he seems more topical now than ever!
Although if you're interested in authors that dealt with similar thematic issues of sex, propriety and relationships as Lawrence, George Meredith and Samuel Butler are alright.
Although I don't find the English write very good romantic literature generally (too emotionally balanced a people?), the Russians do that subgenre much better.Of course for the early 20th century reaction to modernity the best English writers are pretty obvious: H.G. Wells, Huxley, Orwell's essays, and surprisingly Jack London has aged very well. Rhys Davies could write quite movingly about the impact of industrialisation on small Welsh towns. Also Joseph Conrad, though his outlook remained very Eastern European and not at all English.Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen
His initial plans to subdue all of Ukraine, following a three day romp into Kyiv, were soundly upended.
Now he has to be satisfied by enlarging his possessions in Donbass, and that isn’t even a given at this point and time. With Russia sharing a large border with Donbas, and having already carved out and secured a large portion of it for 8 years, you’d think that it would be a sure thing for Russia, but we’ll have to unfortunately wait and see to know how it will actually all end up.
Russia can’t sustain a long war again a Westen-backed Ukraine. This is why Putin needed a very short and total victory. Taking the Donbas secures him nothing, as Ukraine will simply keep fighting. There is no path to victory without taking Kyiv and probably even Lviv, without Ukrainian acquiescence. I therefore don’t fancy his chances of getting anything better than he could have gotten had he simply negotiated at the beginning of the war, and, in fact, he’ll likely get substantially less.
All of the critical evidence is top secret.
You and I are never going to know what happened in the Kennedy assassination let alone nine eleven and everybody who actually had a hand in that is freakin’ dead.
With secrecy/compartments there may never have been one individual who knew all of what had to happen. All of what was going to happen. Bush I am sure knew something was going to happen and he may have been more shock and awed than anybody.
(Well .99 Prob so let’s say sure just for the hell of it.)
I expect the Chinese to show up fairly soon. Pilots over Crimea and or submariners in Taiwan straits
Haven’t seen it, but sounds interesting even just based on the fact that George C. Scott is in it.
You don’t know that for sure, with reasonable evidence to the contrary.
Prior to the Russian military action taken, Russia exhibited agreement with what I noted:
– implementation of the Minsk Protocol
– no NATO in Ukraine, or Ukraine in NATO
– agree to disagree on Crimea.
Russia advocated and waited long enough, as the Kiev regime became militarily stronger, plus the Banderite element.You know the related Clausweitz quote.
The past month's events have been an icy cold shower for anyone with personal or professional connections to Russia who hasn't been deliberately burying their hand in the sand.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
Overlooking Kiev regime fault lines is neither ethical nor accurate.
I mean, Russia's initial plan seems to have been to re-instate Yanukovich from exile, you would think they would have picked someone less divisive if someone else was available. I thought Medvechuk would be more competent at least, but now the Ukrainians have taken their former MP as a POW, while he was hiding incognito as a common soldier, no less.
But I'm all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.Replies: @Mikhail, @siberiancat
- implementation of the Minsk Protocol
- no NATO in Ukraine, or Ukraine in NATO
- agree to disagree on Crimea.
Russia advocated and waited long enough, as the Kiev regime became militarily stronger, plus the Banderite element.You know the related Clausweitz quote.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
NATO’s influence in Ukraine inevitable triggers confrontation with Russia, and Russia is indeed cornered diplomatically economically. But why it has to be a full-scale invasion aiming for wholesale annexation, of which the premise is based on Putin negating Ukrainian identity?
A force of no greater than 20o,000 on territory the size of Ukraine isn't indicative of s full scale military operation. The Kiev regime has been actively favoring the denigration of pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. These two points combined, contradict the image of Russia seeking to wipe out Ukrainian identity - unless that identity is by definition anti-Russian, which I don't accept.
Isn’t it about time for one of your 20 point updates regarding the Russia/Ukraine war? They’re really a special treat because of the factual material that you include is right on, not to mention your very own special sauce of sarcasm. It’s nice to see somebody put the various kremlin stooges that show up here regularly in their place. I don’t think that you’ve yet commented on the sinking of the “Moscow” by Odesa yet?
Ukraine gets stronger every day and Russia gets weaker, therefore Russia will never have a better chance, than they do today, of defeating the Ukrainian military and forcing a treaty from a position of strength. Conquest of Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkhov or Mykolaiv is out of the question. The very idea is now ridiculous.
This is because, despite Russocopes, like "the West is running out of arms with which to supply the Ukrainians", the truth is that Western supply is flexible and essentially unlimited. It can be scaled up very fast, easily represents the majority of military industrial production in the world, and will only increase in sophistication over time as Ukrainians get trained up.
In other words, the current Russian offensive is it for Russia. And, given that it is a last throw of the dice, it means that Russia has accepted their now limited possible gains. They will not enact a general mobilisation and will be seeking to "win" the Donbas now, or withdraw to at least pre-war lines. Any other plan is undermined by their current operation.
These are important facts for the Ukrainians to keep in mind, as they should boost morale. This war is not going to last much longer, if only Ukraine can hold in the inferno. Russia is gambling everything on this.
So can Russia succeed in this limited way in this gamble?
In order to succeed, Russia will have to completely rout the Ukrainian forces in the East. It is not enough for Russia to force them to tactically withdraw, as Russia will be exhausted by their attempted advance and will then be extremely vulnerable.
However this does not mean that Ukraine should withdraw, except to trade limited space for enemy attrition, as momentum can have an effect of its own, but Ukraine losing some ground is not a problem.
Furthermore, given the desperation of the overall situation for Russia, I am still surprised at how lightly manned they are for the task ahead. They seem to have only maybe 60,000 troops "concentrated" on a massive front.
I assume this means that they will attempt to break Ukrainian lines at specific points, in order to reinforce success and hope for a Ukrainian panic, but such advances will be extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian reserves used offensively. Russian fires will not be able to protect those Russian infiltrations. Putin is truly playing double or nothing.
Perhaps all of this is why Russia seems to be attempting some of this at night, which is a bizarre fact given that the Russians have so far failed to conduct effective combined arms operations even during the day. Night time is scary for humans and the Russian plan is almost all dependent on Russia somehow fracturing Ukrainian frontline morale. Russia is putting everything into it.
In other words, other than a miracle, Russia can only hope to win this phase if the Ukrainian forces lose their nerve, and this could happen, so the Russian plan is not hopeless, even if it is desperate.
In other to achieve the desired effect, Russia is also making extreme use of fires. Artillery and missiles are hitting all Ukrainian lines. It is far more traumatic to be under sustained indirect fire than any other aspect of combat. Even more traumatic than watching all of your platoon get shot. This is because soldiers are not able to fire back. Psychologically, this is horrible.
Nonetheless, indirect fire is not going to destroy the Ukrainian forces. They are dug in and these fires can only attempt to demoralise them and fix them in place. If Ukrainians can hold, then Russia will need to coordinate a massive assault, with their fires ongoing. Russia will also need to do this before they run out of shells. They do not seem to have this ability, so perhaps they are hoping that them merely showing up will see the Ukrainians rout, which reminds me of their plan to take Kyiv, or perhaps they are hoping to affect a WW1-style fudge; whereby fires "prepare" Ukrainian positions for sequential Russian assault, but if they plan on the latter, they are due for disaster. This would be militarily ignorant of them and quite bizarre.
The biggest uncertainty, if my overall evaluation is correct, and I don't see a reasonable alternative, is how many hours of rounds does Russia have on the Donbas front?
Can they sustain their "preparation" for days, weeks or only hours? I suspect it is a few days, at the very most, as Russian logistics have been poor so far and they seemed to be recently scrimping on artillery useage. In other words, the final Russian assault will be attempted tomorrow, the day after, or probably never.
May God be with the Ukrainians! The sun of victory will begin its rise soon, in no more than 72 hours, and, if they still stand, Ukraine will have won the day, the war and their national freedom.
Or Russia will completely bottle it and this huge increase in fires will not even be followed up with an assault. In which case, Russia will still look like a viable force, but will be back in the pure horror maths of constantly weakening, while their enemy strengthens. They will have no workable plan going forward and will steadily be defeated, but they will also be depleted by their feinting towards this plan, in which I don't see how they can last more than another month or so.
I appreciate that this is a very definite and bold summary of the situation. But Russia, other than general mobilisation, has no other options.
Look for a huge upswell in Russian propagandistic predictions of shock and awe "victory" to confirm my appraisal. They really are relying on an all-in strategy, dependent on collapsing Ukrainian morale.
It is not a plan that I would do, though I can see why they are doing it. Their chances of success are very slim, but if they do win then Putin's pride and position will be secured. If they fail, then they will only be back into their otherwise hopeless position now, but with even more of their men dead, and it isn't like Putin seems to give a sh*t about the lives of his men. So Putin is gambling nothing that he cares about, with a small chance of winning, which is why he is likely doing it.
I have not written a humorous list, because it seems that this point really is critical. Either the Russians will not do what I am describing and are accepting their eventual defeat, or they are doing it and will either "win" in the East in the next few days or lose the war completely.
I do not rate the Russian plan. It is desperation masquerading as strength. It is basically a loud and murderous bluff. But I don't think they have another option. Ukrainians should be firm. The nightmare that Russia is unleashing has no follow-up. It will be truly terrible, but it will also be temporary. I will pray for Ukrainian forces with all of my heart.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Worrisome rumors about Gonzalo Lira abducted by ukronazis are going up.
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1516127038289158158?cxt=HHwWnIC5-cXgrooqAAAAReplies: @Aedib
Is the Ukrainian a Male between 18-60. Yes.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
The Poles had enough land to keep the aurochs alive, on a preserve, if there had been better management:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C5%82%C4%99d%C3%B3w_Desert
How to assess Russian kills.
Is the Ukrainian a Male between 18-60. Yes.
Also my point would be that tradition must necessarily be an action performed and sustained by a group, so the reading may preserve the memory but it doesn't continue the tradition as a living entity.
Tangentially, are you familiar with the Carmina Gadelica by Alexander Carmichael? The prayers and incantations, together with his notes provide an invaluable window into the lost world of Gaelic thought and practice.
@AaronB You should check them out too. I think you would greatly appreciate the spiritual perspective.Replies: @songbird
Actually, never heard of it, but thanks for mentioning it. Seems popular, which is unexpected to me, as I feel like the Celtic Revival is a period we are long past, for a variety of reasons, including dysgenics and a move away from reading. Most of the more interesting books that I have read about Ireland seem like forgotten tomes.
Some weeks ago, I was reading about poets and I came across one story that still sticks in my imagination: there was a poet walking along a lonely road, that took shelter under a bush, while it was raining. When the rain was not getting through, he praised the bush so that it grew thick and luxurious. When a single drop got through, he started cursing the bush, so that it wilted, and the downpour soaked him.
We may be past the time that books can be an organizing force for culture. At least, in a systematic and group-orientated way, not considering the effect on the individual.
What seems to be a more potent organizing force is film. The bad thing about film is that it takes resources to make an engaging film, and these can be beyond the reach of small countries, and, moreover, film seems to be more of a commercial endeavor, geared towards maximizing profit. Without a nationalist strategic framework, it is probably inherently globalist as well as morally degenerate.
No substantive proof of a full scale invasion and seeking to wipe out Ukrainian identity.
A force of no greater than 20o,000 on territory the size of Ukraine isn’t indicative of s full scale military operation. The Kiev regime has been actively favoring the denigration of pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. These two points combined, contradict the image of Russia seeking to wipe out Ukrainian identity – unless that identity is by definition anti-Russian, which I don’t accept.
Is the Ukrainian a Male between 18-60. Yes.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
Info war.
Alex Jones should be covering this story with what remains of his wits.
This was funny in spots:
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/17/traitor-zelensky-assassination-kidnapping-arrest-political-opposition/
Alas, I do not have any mechanical details.
______________________
@Sudden Death Trying to move while a hole is beneath the waterline? That sounds like a very risky option.
Perhaps they were trying to lift a hole on the far side above the waterline?
______________________
There are questions that need answers.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @songbird
That’s interesting – I hadn’t heard of that.
From what I understand, the ship wasn’t actually being used to fire cruise missiles at the time, but for its anti-air capabilities, so it was probably fully loaded.
I’d suppose a missile strike would compromise the ditch ability, maybe causing the fuel from the Bazalts to leak out and burn through the deck. But I might be mistaken could have been a hit above the waterline.
During the Falklands, the HMS Sheffield is thought to have sunk without the exocet’s warhead actually detonating. It was the fuel from the rocket motor that did the ship in. Though, it did take a few days to sink.
Maybe it's due for another reading.
I think it used to be standard practice to reread classics when one is older and has a more developed and mature take on the world.
Maybe it's time for me to do that - haven't read the classics in ages.
I don't necessarily dislike melodrama, and what I disliked in Dickens was the lack of what I'd call "masculine adventure", and what I thought was the sentimental attitude towards misfortune, poverty, etc.
But these are the attitudes of youth, and was before I had any interest in spirituality. Reading Dickens through the eyes of spirituality I am sure will give me a completely different take.
I'm also renewing my interest in DH Lawrence, who was a great critic of the Machine and modernity - he seems more topical now than ever!Replies: @Yevardian
D.H. Lawrence is terrible.. maybe even the worst English writer to have ever got into the canon. Lawrence also criticised the recent late-Victorian/Georgian past more than ever addressing modernity.
Although if you’re interested in authors that dealt with similar thematic issues of sex, propriety and relationships as Lawrence, George Meredith and Samuel Butler are alright.
Although I don’t find the English write very good romantic literature generally (too emotionally balanced a people?), the Russians do that subgenre much better.
Of course for the early 20th century reaction to modernity the best English writers are pretty obvious: H.G. Wells, Huxley, Orwell’s essays, and surprisingly Jack London has aged very well. Rhys Davies could write quite movingly about the impact of industrialisation on small Welsh towns. Also Joseph Conrad, though his outlook remained very Eastern European and not at all English.
I'm actually quite curious about how I will respond to Lawrence - to be honest, I don't remember loving him when younger, but partially, I'm trying to "reassess" my attitude to the classics in light of who I am now, which is a very different person.
I know Orwell was very appreciative of Lawrence and regarded him as capable of real depth and power, but also being very uneven and somewhat weak in writing novels.
As far as I understand, Lawrence was very critical of what he saw as the overly intellectual and excessively abstract European civilization of his time, and counselled a return to instinct, emotion, the body, and Nature.
These themes continue to be highly relevant today, and converge with my current philosophical interests, so I'm very curious about what he has to say.
I ordered the Plumed Serpent and Women in Love - I shall report my impressions here :)
I know that George Meredith was hugely popular among intellectuals of his time, and I tried reading him once or twice but couldn't quite get into him - maybe it's time to revisit him too!
Wells is a fascinating figure because he deals with the themes of modernity, progress, and rationality seemingly from the vantage point of being a supporter of these things - but his "unconscious" mind keeps on "leaking" out the troubling darker side of these phenomena.
I went through a period where I read most of Wells non-science fiction novels (Tono Bungay, etc), and found them all very enjoyable and surprisingly deep. I don't remember who turned me on to his social fiction - either Orwell, or John Gray.
Jack London has always been one of my favorites - I've read nearly everything he wrote, including his non-wilderness books, like his memoir of alcoholism John Barleycorn, his travel account of voyaging on his boat, and such works as the Iron Heel, Martin Eden, and People of the Abyss, Before Adam, etc.
Joseph Conrad has always been one of my all time favorites! I shall have to revisit him too, however he is already a little bit too close to modern nihilism, which I am trying to move away from. But his work deals with themes that can help us overcome modernity, such as how superficial and false the rationalistic outlook is, and human nature is far more mysterious and irrational than modernity pretends, and his work often has a very strong emotional and mythic element and a sense of the sheer wonder and strangeness of the world.
I have just about heard of Rhys Davies due to a Welsh literary view I subscribe to, Planet. I have never read him. I suppose I must now.Replies: @Yevardian, @utu
True pinnacle multireligious multiracialism – union of Muslims, Buddhists and Christians, what’s not to like?
Perhaps former forum member AltanBakshi is going to war too?:
This is a big moment. Russia appears to be making a last throw of the dice and committing to an attack along the entire Donbas Front. I assume that they have worked out what I have been saying, which is the following:
Ukraine gets stronger every day and Russia gets weaker, therefore Russia will never have a better chance, than they do today, of defeating the Ukrainian military and forcing a treaty from a position of strength. Conquest of Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkhov or Mykolaiv is out of the question. The very idea is now ridiculous.
This is because, despite Russocopes, like “the West is running out of arms with which to supply the Ukrainians”, the truth is that Western supply is flexible and essentially unlimited. It can be scaled up very fast, easily represents the majority of military industrial production in the world, and will only increase in sophistication over time as Ukrainians get trained up.
In other words, the current Russian offensive is it for Russia. And, given that it is a last throw of the dice, it means that Russia has accepted their now limited possible gains. They will not enact a general mobilisation and will be seeking to “win” the Donbas now, or withdraw to at least pre-war lines. Any other plan is undermined by their current operation.
These are important facts for the Ukrainians to keep in mind, as they should boost morale. This war is not going to last much longer, if only Ukraine can hold in the inferno. Russia is gambling everything on this.
So can Russia succeed in this limited way in this gamble?
In order to succeed, Russia will have to completely rout the Ukrainian forces in the East. It is not enough for Russia to force them to tactically withdraw, as Russia will be exhausted by their attempted advance and will then be extremely vulnerable.
However this does not mean that Ukraine should withdraw, except to trade limited space for enemy attrition, as momentum can have an effect of its own, but Ukraine losing some ground is not a problem.
Furthermore, given the desperation of the overall situation for Russia, I am still surprised at how lightly manned they are for the task ahead. They seem to have only maybe 60,000 troops “concentrated” on a massive front.
I assume this means that they will attempt to break Ukrainian lines at specific points, in order to reinforce success and hope for a Ukrainian panic, but such advances will be extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian reserves used offensively. Russian fires will not be able to protect those Russian infiltrations. Putin is truly playing double or nothing.
Perhaps all of this is why Russia seems to be attempting some of this at night, which is a bizarre fact given that the Russians have so far failed to conduct effective combined arms operations even during the day. Night time is scary for humans and the Russian plan is almost all dependent on Russia somehow fracturing Ukrainian frontline morale. Russia is putting everything into it.
In other words, other than a miracle, Russia can only hope to win this phase if the Ukrainian forces lose their nerve, and this could happen, so the Russian plan is not hopeless, even if it is desperate.
In other to achieve the desired effect, Russia is also making extreme use of fires. Artillery and missiles are hitting all Ukrainian lines. It is far more traumatic to be under sustained indirect fire than any other aspect of combat. Even more traumatic than watching all of your platoon get shot. This is because soldiers are not able to fire back. Psychologically, this is horrible.
Nonetheless, indirect fire is not going to destroy the Ukrainian forces. They are dug in and these fires can only attempt to demoralise them and fix them in place. If Ukrainians can hold, then Russia will need to coordinate a massive assault, with their fires ongoing. Russia will also need to do this before they run out of shells. They do not seem to have this ability, so perhaps they are hoping that them merely showing up will see the Ukrainians rout, which reminds me of their plan to take Kyiv, or perhaps they are hoping to affect a WW1-style fudge; whereby fires “prepare” Ukrainian positions for sequential Russian assault, but if they plan on the latter, they are due for disaster. This would be militarily ignorant of them and quite bizarre.
The biggest uncertainty, if my overall evaluation is correct, and I don’t see a reasonable alternative, is how many hours of rounds does Russia have on the Donbas front?
Can they sustain their “preparation” for days, weeks or only hours? I suspect it is a few days, at the very most, as Russian logistics have been poor so far and they seemed to be recently scrimping on artillery useage. In other words, the final Russian assault will be attempted tomorrow, the day after, or probably never.
May God be with the Ukrainians! The sun of victory will begin its rise soon, in no more than 72 hours, and, if they still stand, Ukraine will have won the day, the war and their national freedom.
Or Russia will completely bottle it and this huge increase in fires will not even be followed up with an assault. In which case, Russia will still look like a viable force, but will be back in the pure horror maths of constantly weakening, while their enemy strengthens. They will have no workable plan going forward and will steadily be defeated, but they will also be depleted by their feinting towards this plan, in which I don’t see how they can last more than another month or so.
I appreciate that this is a very definite and bold summary of the situation. But Russia, other than general mobilisation, has no other options.
Look for a huge upswell in Russian propagandistic predictions of shock and awe “victory” to confirm my appraisal. They really are relying on an all-in strategy, dependent on collapsing Ukrainian morale.
It is not a plan that I would do, though I can see why they are doing it. Their chances of success are very slim, but if they do win then Putin’s pride and position will be secured. If they fail, then they will only be back into their otherwise hopeless position now, but with even more of their men dead, and it isn’t like Putin seems to give a sh*t about the lives of his men. So Putin is gambling nothing that he cares about, with a small chance of winning, which is why he is likely doing it.
I have not written a humorous list, because it seems that this point really is critical. Either the Russians will not do what I am describing and are accepting their eventual defeat, or they are doing it and will either “win” in the East in the next few days or lose the war completely.
I do not rate the Russian plan. It is desperation masquerading as strength. It is basically a loud and murderous bluff. But I don’t think they have another option. Ukrainians should be firm. The nightmare that Russia is unleashing has no follow-up. It will be truly terrible, but it will also be temporary. I will pray for Ukrainian forces with all of my heart.
What I hope for is the ‘regathering’ of the Romanian lands. Their liberation from the Ukrainian yoke.
Although if you're interested in authors that dealt with similar thematic issues of sex, propriety and relationships as Lawrence, George Meredith and Samuel Butler are alright.
Although I don't find the English write very good romantic literature generally (too emotionally balanced a people?), the Russians do that subgenre much better.Of course for the early 20th century reaction to modernity the best English writers are pretty obvious: H.G. Wells, Huxley, Orwell's essays, and surprisingly Jack London has aged very well. Rhys Davies could write quite movingly about the impact of industrialisation on small Welsh towns. Also Joseph Conrad, though his outlook remained very Eastern European and not at all English.Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen
I will keep your words in mind, Yevardian, but I shall have to see for myself.
I’m actually quite curious about how I will respond to Lawrence – to be honest, I don’t remember loving him when younger, but partially, I’m trying to “reassess” my attitude to the classics in light of who I am now, which is a very different person.
I know Orwell was very appreciative of Lawrence and regarded him as capable of real depth and power, but also being very uneven and somewhat weak in writing novels.
As far as I understand, Lawrence was very critical of what he saw as the overly intellectual and excessively abstract European civilization of his time, and counselled a return to instinct, emotion, the body, and Nature.
These themes continue to be highly relevant today, and converge with my current philosophical interests, so I’m very curious about what he has to say.
I ordered the Plumed Serpent and Women in Love – I shall report my impressions here 🙂
I know that George Meredith was hugely popular among intellectuals of his time, and I tried reading him once or twice but couldn’t quite get into him – maybe it’s time to revisit him too!
Wells is a fascinating figure because he deals with the themes of modernity, progress, and rationality seemingly from the vantage point of being a supporter of these things – but his “unconscious” mind keeps on “leaking” out the troubling darker side of these phenomena.
I went through a period where I read most of Wells non-science fiction novels (Tono Bungay, etc), and found them all very enjoyable and surprisingly deep. I don’t remember who turned me on to his social fiction – either Orwell, or John Gray.
Jack London has always been one of my favorites – I’ve read nearly everything he wrote, including his non-wilderness books, like his memoir of alcoholism John Barleycorn, his travel account of voyaging on his boat, and such works as the Iron Heel, Martin Eden, and People of the Abyss, Before Adam, etc.
Joseph Conrad has always been one of my all time favorites! I shall have to revisit him too, however he is already a little bit too close to modern nihilism, which I am trying to move away from. But his work deals with themes that can help us overcome modernity, such as how superficial and false the rationalistic outlook is, and human nature is far more mysterious and irrational than modernity pretends, and his work often has a very strong emotional and mythic element and a sense of the sheer wonder and strangeness of the world.
Although if you're interested in authors that dealt with similar thematic issues of sex, propriety and relationships as Lawrence, George Meredith and Samuel Butler are alright.
Although I don't find the English write very good romantic literature generally (too emotionally balanced a people?), the Russians do that subgenre much better.Of course for the early 20th century reaction to modernity the best English writers are pretty obvious: H.G. Wells, Huxley, Orwell's essays, and surprisingly Jack London has aged very well. Rhys Davies could write quite movingly about the impact of industrialisation on small Welsh towns. Also Joseph Conrad, though his outlook remained very Eastern European and not at all English.Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen
The Man Who Would be Thursday by Chesterton aged well.
Let’s assume for a moment the Russians packed up their gear and went home. They would continue to keep and defend Crimea but nothing more.
How would things play out in Ukraine?
How would things play out in Ukraine?Replies: @Wokechoke
They have to keep Kherson and Melitopol. For the water.
Ukraine gets stronger every day and Russia gets weaker, therefore Russia will never have a better chance, than they do today, of defeating the Ukrainian military and forcing a treaty from a position of strength. Conquest of Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkhov or Mykolaiv is out of the question. The very idea is now ridiculous.
This is because, despite Russocopes, like "the West is running out of arms with which to supply the Ukrainians", the truth is that Western supply is flexible and essentially unlimited. It can be scaled up very fast, easily represents the majority of military industrial production in the world, and will only increase in sophistication over time as Ukrainians get trained up.
In other words, the current Russian offensive is it for Russia. And, given that it is a last throw of the dice, it means that Russia has accepted their now limited possible gains. They will not enact a general mobilisation and will be seeking to "win" the Donbas now, or withdraw to at least pre-war lines. Any other plan is undermined by their current operation.
These are important facts for the Ukrainians to keep in mind, as they should boost morale. This war is not going to last much longer, if only Ukraine can hold in the inferno. Russia is gambling everything on this.
So can Russia succeed in this limited way in this gamble?
In order to succeed, Russia will have to completely rout the Ukrainian forces in the East. It is not enough for Russia to force them to tactically withdraw, as Russia will be exhausted by their attempted advance and will then be extremely vulnerable.
However this does not mean that Ukraine should withdraw, except to trade limited space for enemy attrition, as momentum can have an effect of its own, but Ukraine losing some ground is not a problem.
Furthermore, given the desperation of the overall situation for Russia, I am still surprised at how lightly manned they are for the task ahead. They seem to have only maybe 60,000 troops "concentrated" on a massive front.
I assume this means that they will attempt to break Ukrainian lines at specific points, in order to reinforce success and hope for a Ukrainian panic, but such advances will be extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian reserves used offensively. Russian fires will not be able to protect those Russian infiltrations. Putin is truly playing double or nothing.
Perhaps all of this is why Russia seems to be attempting some of this at night, which is a bizarre fact given that the Russians have so far failed to conduct effective combined arms operations even during the day. Night time is scary for humans and the Russian plan is almost all dependent on Russia somehow fracturing Ukrainian frontline morale. Russia is putting everything into it.
In other words, other than a miracle, Russia can only hope to win this phase if the Ukrainian forces lose their nerve, and this could happen, so the Russian plan is not hopeless, even if it is desperate.
In other to achieve the desired effect, Russia is also making extreme use of fires. Artillery and missiles are hitting all Ukrainian lines. It is far more traumatic to be under sustained indirect fire than any other aspect of combat. Even more traumatic than watching all of your platoon get shot. This is because soldiers are not able to fire back. Psychologically, this is horrible.
Nonetheless, indirect fire is not going to destroy the Ukrainian forces. They are dug in and these fires can only attempt to demoralise them and fix them in place. If Ukrainians can hold, then Russia will need to coordinate a massive assault, with their fires ongoing. Russia will also need to do this before they run out of shells. They do not seem to have this ability, so perhaps they are hoping that them merely showing up will see the Ukrainians rout, which reminds me of their plan to take Kyiv, or perhaps they are hoping to affect a WW1-style fudge; whereby fires "prepare" Ukrainian positions for sequential Russian assault, but if they plan on the latter, they are due for disaster. This would be militarily ignorant of them and quite bizarre.
The biggest uncertainty, if my overall evaluation is correct, and I don't see a reasonable alternative, is how many hours of rounds does Russia have on the Donbas front?
Can they sustain their "preparation" for days, weeks or only hours? I suspect it is a few days, at the very most, as Russian logistics have been poor so far and they seemed to be recently scrimping on artillery useage. In other words, the final Russian assault will be attempted tomorrow, the day after, or probably never.
May God be with the Ukrainians! The sun of victory will begin its rise soon, in no more than 72 hours, and, if they still stand, Ukraine will have won the day, the war and their national freedom.
Or Russia will completely bottle it and this huge increase in fires will not even be followed up with an assault. In which case, Russia will still look like a viable force, but will be back in the pure horror maths of constantly weakening, while their enemy strengthens. They will have no workable plan going forward and will steadily be defeated, but they will also be depleted by their feinting towards this plan, in which I don't see how they can last more than another month or so.
I appreciate that this is a very definite and bold summary of the situation. But Russia, other than general mobilisation, has no other options.
Look for a huge upswell in Russian propagandistic predictions of shock and awe "victory" to confirm my appraisal. They really are relying on an all-in strategy, dependent on collapsing Ukrainian morale.
It is not a plan that I would do, though I can see why they are doing it. Their chances of success are very slim, but if they do win then Putin's pride and position will be secured. If they fail, then they will only be back into their otherwise hopeless position now, but with even more of their men dead, and it isn't like Putin seems to give a sh*t about the lives of his men. So Putin is gambling nothing that he cares about, with a small chance of winning, which is why he is likely doing it.
I have not written a humorous list, because it seems that this point really is critical. Either the Russians will not do what I am describing and are accepting their eventual defeat, or they are doing it and will either "win" in the East in the next few days or lose the war completely.
I do not rate the Russian plan. It is desperation masquerading as strength. It is basically a loud and murderous bluff. But I don't think they have another option. Ukrainians should be firm. The nightmare that Russia is unleashing has no follow-up. It will be truly terrible, but it will also be temporary. I will pray for Ukrainian forces with all of my heart.Replies: @Mr. Hack
Thank you very much for your very sober analyses of the situation in Ukraine today. I too will be praying especially hard for the next 72 hours for the Lord’s protection, in the guise of St. Michael the Archangel the patron saint of Kyiv.
Romania is not even able to unite with Moldavia, certainly a core Romanian land, thanks to Russian duplicity, that you seem Okay with. You’re a Romanian Russophile right?
Anyway it is not for Romania to unite with 'Moldavia', but the other way round. It is not 'Moldavia' which is the 'core Romanian land'. Moldova is a 'Romanian land' but it is at the external margin of the 'core' of Romanian lands towards the Scythian/Sarmatian/Khazar/Cossack 'Barbaricum'. The 'spine' of the Romanian lands is the Danube and its affluent rivers from north and south. The core of Romania is the ancient Kingdom of Dacia, the Roman Provinces of Dacia, Moesia, Scythia Minor. Romania is called 'Romania' because it was always part of the 'Imperium Romanorum'/Byzantine Commonwealth, to which the 'Rus' adhered forever when the savage Varangians have would been illuminated by their baptism in the waters of the Dnieper and became the fiercest 'Guard of the Empire', the 'Katehon' that ''holds back the coming into the world of the antichrist."
Do you really think that 'pride parades' are what would keep the Russians at bay? Plying piano with the dick (reason why Elenski was bombarded as president) in front of guffawing audiences who wouldn't cover their faces in shame?Replies: @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack
Trump has said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a genocide, but has he called the Holodomor a genocide? And if not, why not?
Too bad there wasn’t a way to switch his brain with Zemmour.
Chesterton has said that he wasn’t a Christian when he wrote it, which makes it a weird read to me.
Just watched it. IMO, definitely worth a watch.
Atmospheric. Good performances, and locations. I was expecting it to be a regular haunted house story, but I appreciated (spoilers)
1.) two baptism medals: it didn’t made sense to me, when I was watching it, as the murder was probably premeditated, so he should have grabbed it. But I guess I can forgive it, as it could be explained away – if he forgot to remove it in the heat of the moment, before dumping the body.
My second point I make more because it amuses me:
2.) I felt like someone was cucked, but I can’t figure out who. Maybe, the ghost, as he did not get his revenge on the guy that killed him, or his natural progeny, who carried his evil genes, but rather on an adoptee, who did not take part in the killing. Or, maybe, the murderer because he had no natural progeny to which to funnel the inheritance.
Regarding the medallion, maybe it wasn't on the body, but the "ghost" made it appear there the way it did with his daughter's ball in the house, after it had been thrown into the river.
And yeah, the ending wasn't particularly satisfying. I find that a bit more forgivable in a horror than in other sorts of movies.Replies: @songbird
Came across this.
Bezos only has one child compared to Musk’s seven.
OTOH, two of Musk’s came from a crazy woman who is now dating a tranny. And five underwent some form of womb-sharing and weren’t created by sperm running the natural gauntlet that it is supposed to run. Perhaps, he would have been better off with a harem.
Anyway, it would be really interesting to learn more about the billionaires who have a lot of children, compared to those who have few.
How many times did I tell you and your sidekick AP (to my recollection in no uncertain terms) that I am guilty as charged?
Anyway it is not for Romania to unite with ‘Moldavia’, but the other way round. It is not ‘Moldavia’ which is the ‘core Romanian land’. Moldova is a ‘Romanian land’ but it is at the external margin of the ‘core’ of Romanian lands towards the Scythian/Sarmatian/Khazar/Cossack ‘Barbaricum’. The ‘spine’ of the Romanian lands is the Danube and its affluent rivers from north and south. The core of Romania is the ancient Kingdom of Dacia, the Roman Provinces of Dacia, Moesia, Scythia Minor. Romania is called ‘Romania’ because it was always part of the ‘Imperium Romanorum’/Byzantine Commonwealth, to which the ‘Rus’ adhered forever when the savage Varangians have would been illuminated by their baptism in the waters of the Dnieper and became the fiercest ‘Guard of the Empire’, the ‘Katehon’ that ”holds back the coming into the world of the antichrist.”
Do you really think that ‘pride parades’ are what would keep the Russians at bay? Plying piano with the dick (reason why Elenski was bombarded as president) in front of guffawing audiences who wouldn’t cover their faces in shame?
Despite aircraft plants being bombed, the Germans kept building planes without much interruption in WW2. But they lacked the pilots to fly them and eventually the fuel for them as well.
I saw lots of Sikhs in a Sikh aid organization at the Polish-Ukrainian border, making free food for incoming refugees. Thanks guys!
It's called Langar btw,
Degh Tegh Fateh or the Victory to Cauldron & Sword - references protection & alms to the poor.
It is the Sikh spiritual-political slogan of universal rule||
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
For the conspiratorially-inclined, watch when this piece (on New York Times of all places) is gone. If it is indeed like the theory of Hitler being a British agent, even weakly argued suggestions on MSM like this will be memory-holed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/opinion/putin-cia-weakening-russia.html
In another time those who are wishing for a NATO-Russia showdown and then NATO/US defeat with MAD would be apocalypticists. And you know what, Revelations are driving how Putin and Judeo-Christian-Islamic religious nationalists think. They won’t be wrong because 55% of the world belong to these religions and a further 22% believe in religions with a concept of Kali Yuga.
People generally seem to have a consciousness of right and wrong, truth and lie. However, all too often when a chance for ill gotten gain (from someone else) comes along they will 'short circuit' this consciousness with a tall tale they tell themselves, ie that they are somehow 'helping' this individual or people which they are in truth robbing and plundering, what I call 'civilizing the barbarians'.
As an example, I doubt Vercingetorix and his Gauls saw it as help or 'civilizing' when he, as their leader, was ritually strangled in a Roman dungeon and many thousands of the defeated Gauls were taken to Rome as slaves when their revolt failed. The Gallic Wars, from whence their revolt sprang, in reality likely had much more to do with Julius Caesar satisfying his personal political ambitions in Rome via a victoriously fought war, not to mention the rich gold mines the Gauls reportedly held, than anything else.
But, people have to live with themselves and their conscious, and hence the tall tales.
This unfortunate human tendency can be compounded with certain belief systems. In the case of the US and UK, as well as Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, historically some powerful members of the Anglo-Saxon establishment and their hangers on have held the absurd belief that they were of the 'lost tribes of Israel'. This was called 'Anglo-American Israelism', aka 'British Israelism'. [This unhealthy situation is compounded even further with the long dysfunctional relationship that has existed between the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples, the latter actually really being Jewish, much unlike those Anglo-Saxons who believe in the idea of British Israelism.]
Below is an excerpt from an outstanding (albeit lengthy) article on this subject, entitled
Imperial British-Israelism: Justification for an Empire. Well worth the time to read in full for it's insights.
'...many British-Israelites viewed the Second World War as just a precursor to a war with the Soviet Union which would usher in the Second Coming of Christ and the Millennium.' http://revneal.org/Writings/Writings/british.htm
Our Benevolent Overlord? (PBUH)
So I finally took time to listen to Peter Zeihan, the man is certainly seems like an unapologetic American imperialist, but he’s quite affable, makes a good case, and most importantly, doesn’t seem to be a hypocrite or intentionally dishonest. I might even try reading one of his triumphalist books
This second interview is also decent, though the host is apparently some crypto-troglodyte, his questions can be safely skipped in the final quarter.
He comes from George Friedman's stable and even if he is independent of him he retains George Friedman style including charm and charisma. How good analyst and forecaster was George Friedman? In 1991 he and his wife wrote "The Coming War with Japan" Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Ipse dixit. You’d have to be more specific. From my vantage point (which includes many pro-Russian commentators, Yuri Podolyaka, Starikov, etc), seeing such fault lines where there were in fact none, is probably the number one mistake Russian made in getting into this war.
I mean, Russia’s initial plan seems to have been to re-instate Yanukovich from exile, you would think they would have picked someone less divisive if someone else was available. I thought Medvechuk would be more competent at least, but now the Ukrainians have taken their former MP as a POW, while he was hiding incognito as a common soldier, no less.
But I’m all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.
To borrow from you: But I’m all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.
Yanukovich was and is invisible.
More reasonable than Kuleba:
https://www.rt.com/on-air/554122-lavrov-interview-india-today/
I mean, Russia's initial plan seems to have been to re-instate Yanukovich from exile, you would think they would have picked someone less divisive if someone else was available. I thought Medvechuk would be more competent at least, but now the Ukrainians have taken their former MP as a POW, while he was hiding incognito as a common soldier, no less.
But I'm all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.Replies: @Mikhail, @siberiancat
What proof of such for Yanukovych? According to at least one Western source, the Russian government favored someone else you didn’t mention. That claim seems absurd given that person (whose name escapes me) is quite inconsequential and (upon further review) not on good terms with the Russian government.
To borrow from you: But I’m all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.
Anyway it is not for Romania to unite with 'Moldavia', but the other way round. It is not 'Moldavia' which is the 'core Romanian land'. Moldova is a 'Romanian land' but it is at the external margin of the 'core' of Romanian lands towards the Scythian/Sarmatian/Khazar/Cossack 'Barbaricum'. The 'spine' of the Romanian lands is the Danube and its affluent rivers from north and south. The core of Romania is the ancient Kingdom of Dacia, the Roman Provinces of Dacia, Moesia, Scythia Minor. Romania is called 'Romania' because it was always part of the 'Imperium Romanorum'/Byzantine Commonwealth, to which the 'Rus' adhered forever when the savage Varangians have would been illuminated by their baptism in the waters of the Dnieper and became the fiercest 'Guard of the Empire', the 'Katehon' that ''holds back the coming into the world of the antichrist."
Do you really think that 'pride parades' are what would keep the Russians at bay? Plying piano with the dick (reason why Elenski was bombarded as president) in front of guffawing audiences who wouldn't cover their faces in shame?Replies: @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack
Tbh, I myself find it pretty hard to reconcile these two things. Certainly a Bulgarian, Serbian, Christian Caucasian, Greek or pre-2014-Ukrainian Russophile is easily explicable, I could even see a creative case made for a Balt (without Russian rule, Balts and their language would have been assimilated as Swedes, Germans or Danes), but from my pov, Romania went from the only civilised Balkan country (or at least government) to having probably the worst Communist regime in all of Europe except Albania.
I suppose it could be argued Romania owes its independence from the Turks to Russia, and cultural similarities. But from my wide experience of Romanians, they’re the most anti-Russia people in all of Europe, excepting Balts and Poles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2C42p_8XfIReplies: @utu
Peter Zeihan? Very impressive very effective, very persuasive and so on but I am skeptical. He might be right on some issues but I am growing very suspicious of him. I doubt that his graphs on demographics and sustainable energy are that meaningful that his conclusion form them have good scientific basis. They are props for his spiel and performance. It all has a strong whiff of charlatanry.
He comes from George Friedman’s stable and even if he is independent of him he retains George Friedman style including charm and charisma. How good analyst and forecaster was George Friedman? In 1991 he and his wife wrote “The Coming War with Japan”
Turkish Lira up almost ten percent against the Japanese Yen in the past month, look at the Yen gold price too.
I’m familiar with George Friedman, I think in the context of an argument with an extreme svidomist Ukrainian fan of his nearly a decade ago (back then I had no doubts whatsoever that all Ukraine’s problems with Russia were its own fault), I recall throwing that book title like a rock at him and our adolescent ‘debate’ descending to puerile racialisms from that point onwards.
I still wonder if he was in earnest publishing that thing or he simply knew it would make good sales. Karlin’s blog was somewhat similar (believe or not, I’d followed his blogging since 2010.. perhaps his best output was his article ‘Simmered to the Edge of World’, it could be satirical), Dmitri put it best with ‘dadaesque performance art’.
Yes, this is the problem with charming people, it often takes reading rather than listening to them to see their thinking at its real value. Certainly pointing out that China and Russia have disastrous demographics requires no great insight. Zeihan’s claim that the US could be fighting an Afghanistan-style insurgency with drug cartels in North-Mexico in a near-future also sounded quite ‘War with Japan’ attention-grabbing tier.
I recall Chomsky saying ‘I’m a boring speaker, and I like it that way’, since he’d rather his arguments stand on their own. Certainly his books have similarly turgid prose. Yuri Podolyaka also speaks in a similar style on his videos, just montonously drones through his content with zero jokes or rhetoric.
But I suppose it’s possible to be a charismatic speaker and not be Jordan Peterson or Slavoj Zizek (can it be a coincidence all their books are unreadable?) superhuman level of fraud, Vaclav Smil’s books stand on their own merits, I think.
When writing my comment to S above I recalled two pieces of observation of apparent synchronicities when the war against Iraq in 2003 was about to begin that as if they were trying to reveal to us what was the true cause of that war. First it was the shuttle Columbia disaster with an Israeli astronaut on board that fell apart above Texas and a lot of debris was found in little town Palestine, Texas which was mention a lot of times in news then. And then when attack on Iraq began there was the story of American soldier Jessica Lynch who was turned into American heroine by media who however in the end did not want to go along with it. Jessica Lynch was form Palestine, West Virginia. She'd rather return to Palestine, WV than be a celebrity. The two Palestines bracketed the coverage of Iraq war. So when I wrote that comment to S I knew where he was coming from and how it feels to discover something and give it a meaning that probably nobody else sees. But I also know not to hold to it. I made my discovery because Palestine, Israel and Israel lobby and Yinon plan were on my mind when war with Iraq project was lunched and its marketing began at the end of Summer 2002. I had no illusion about the true reasons for the war against Iraq.Replies: @Dmitry
Anyway it is not for Romania to unite with 'Moldavia', but the other way round. It is not 'Moldavia' which is the 'core Romanian land'. Moldova is a 'Romanian land' but it is at the external margin of the 'core' of Romanian lands towards the Scythian/Sarmatian/Khazar/Cossack 'Barbaricum'. The 'spine' of the Romanian lands is the Danube and its affluent rivers from north and south. The core of Romania is the ancient Kingdom of Dacia, the Roman Provinces of Dacia, Moesia, Scythia Minor. Romania is called 'Romania' because it was always part of the 'Imperium Romanorum'/Byzantine Commonwealth, to which the 'Rus' adhered forever when the savage Varangians have would been illuminated by their baptism in the waters of the Dnieper and became the fiercest 'Guard of the Empire', the 'Katehon' that ''holds back the coming into the world of the antichrist."
Do you really think that 'pride parades' are what would keep the Russians at bay? Plying piano with the dick (reason why Elenski was bombarded as president) in front of guffawing audiences who wouldn't cover their faces in shame?Replies: @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack
So, you try to distance yourself from Moldavia by claiming some sort of half truth about its “external margin of the “core” of the Romanian land”, and have concocted some tragic-comedy outcry about wanting a ‘regathering’ of the Romanian lands. Their liberation from the Ukrainian yoke.”
The only lands that have really been under any sort of dispute between Ukraine and Romania have been in Bukovina. So Moldova is an “external margin” according to your revisionist jargon, yet Bukovina, it seems, is in need of liberation from the Ukrainian yoke? Your arguments are weak indeed for you seem to forget that Bukovina was at one time wholly a part of Moldova. Do you want to try again?
The same crew who after 4 presidents and trillions of dollars replaced the Taliban with The Taliban. Lol. That’s you that is.
He very much seems to exhibit schizophrenic traits when it comes to this Romanian/Russian duality. 🙂
What are you blabbering about? I can’t seem to put together your comment with mine towards Seraphim?
I still wonder if he was in earnest publishing that thing or he simply knew it would make good sales. Karlin's blog was somewhat similar (believe or not, I'd followed his blogging since 2010.. perhaps his best output was his article 'Simmered to the Edge of World', it could be satirical), Dmitri put it best with 'dadaesque performance art'. Yes, this is the problem with charming people, it often takes reading rather than listening to them to see their thinking at its real value. Certainly pointing out that China and Russia have disastrous demographics requires no great insight. Zeihan's claim that the US could be fighting an Afghanistan-style insurgency with drug cartels in North-Mexico in a near-future also sounded quite 'War with Japan' attention-grabbing tier. I recall Chomsky saying 'I'm a boring speaker, and I like it that way', since he'd rather his arguments stand on their own. Certainly his books have similarly turgid prose. Yuri Podolyaka also speaks in a similar style on his videos, just montonously drones through his content with zero jokes or rhetoric.
But I suppose it's possible to be a charismatic speaker and not be Jordan Peterson or Slavoj Zizek (can it be a coincidence all their books are unreadable?) superhuman level of fraud, Vaclav Smil's books stand on their own merits, I think.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @utu
Stephen Flowers. (If you overlook the minor detail he is Satanist.)
Neil Stephenson is a pretty good speaker if he isn’t being interviewed by Lex Fridman and he is a really great writer if you skim over the 30% garbage!
I still wonder if he was in earnest publishing that thing or he simply knew it would make good sales. Karlin's blog was somewhat similar (believe or not, I'd followed his blogging since 2010.. perhaps his best output was his article 'Simmered to the Edge of World', it could be satirical), Dmitri put it best with 'dadaesque performance art'. Yes, this is the problem with charming people, it often takes reading rather than listening to them to see their thinking at its real value. Certainly pointing out that China and Russia have disastrous demographics requires no great insight. Zeihan's claim that the US could be fighting an Afghanistan-style insurgency with drug cartels in North-Mexico in a near-future also sounded quite 'War with Japan' attention-grabbing tier. I recall Chomsky saying 'I'm a boring speaker, and I like it that way', since he'd rather his arguments stand on their own. Certainly his books have similarly turgid prose. Yuri Podolyaka also speaks in a similar style on his videos, just montonously drones through his content with zero jokes or rhetoric.
But I suppose it's possible to be a charismatic speaker and not be Jordan Peterson or Slavoj Zizek (can it be a coincidence all their books are unreadable?) superhuman level of fraud, Vaclav Smil's books stand on their own merits, I think.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @utu
Friedman knew what was needed when he wrote his book about the coming war with Japan. He was just wrong about the target. How to deal with the despair in America caused by the end of the Cold War? Francis Fukuyama book came the following year and it seemed as if America lost its purpose and certainly the MIC was getting very nervous. President George H. Bush was really sincere about the peace dividends and shutting down military bases. But Friedman who like his pupil Peter Zeihan is materialist could see causes only in the material world and totally neglected the world of ideas that ideas often are the real movers. It was Samuel Huntingon who got it right in his 1992 lecture at the American Enterprise Institute on The Clash of Civilizations that he followed with 1996 book “The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order” by pointing our next enemy. It would be hard to find material causes for the need of war against the world of Islam unless you invoked the security of Israel and its Yinon Plan but this could not have been done so instead the causes were found in the realm of ideas and ideologies.
When writing my comment to S above I recalled two pieces of observation of apparent synchronicities when the war against Iraq in 2003 was about to begin that as if they were trying to reveal to us what was the true cause of that war. First it was the shuttle Columbia disaster with an Israeli astronaut on board that fell apart above Texas and a lot of debris was found in little town Palestine, Texas which was mention a lot of times in news then. And then when attack on Iraq began there was the story of American soldier Jessica Lynch who was turned into American heroine by media who however in the end did not want to go along with it. Jessica Lynch was form Palestine, West Virginia. She’d rather return to Palestine, WV than be a celebrity. The two Palestines bracketed the coverage of Iraq war. So when I wrote that comment to S I knew where he was coming from and how it feels to discover something and give it a meaning that probably nobody else sees. But I also know not to hold to it. I made my discovery because Palestine, Israel and Israel lobby and Yinon plan were on my mind when war with Iraq project was lunched and its marketing began at the end of Summer 2002. I had no illusion about the true reasons for the war against Iraq.
https://i.imgur.com/JRj3oNh.jpgReplies: @songbird
Moldova should have been reintegrated into Romania, but Transnistria was only made a “part” of Moldova under the Soviets in a similar ploy to grab Finland with the Karelo-Finnish SSR. It always has had a Slavic majority, so Moldova should be ready to let go of it, whatever it would do to itself (it will align with Russia) or Russia/Ukraine would do to it.
Or he is just a RF-ian of any nationality cosplaying a native Westerner like some are doing 😉
This has nothing to do with trying to understand Seraphim’s strange mix of nationalist sympathies, that both Yevardian and I were trying to do…
He comes from George Friedman's stable and even if he is independent of him he retains George Friedman style including charm and charisma. How good analyst and forecaster was George Friedman? In 1991 he and his wife wrote "The Coming War with Japan" Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Probably the same playbook was transposed to China, because Japan remains an American vassal where most of its political class find advantages to toe the American line. In which case it is largely fulfilling before our own eyes.
Russia has deployed S-400 and TOR close to the border with the Kharkov Oblast, according to Ukrainian military public briefings. No confirmation yet from Russia, but it seems congruent with the heavy increase in attacks against the city. If Russia tries to seriously take it, then it will make the Mariupol disaster look like a walk in the park in terms of civilian casualties. It’s simply part of urban warfare that civilians get into the line of fire.
It doesn’t help that public infrastructure, including train and bus lines, are severely degraded today compared to the beginning of the conflict. Those who didn’t flee yet will find it much harder this time than they’d have ~6 weeks ago.
—
With the sinking of the Moskva battleship, Russia’s naval support bombardment capacities are curtailed to a significant extent. There was speculation that perhaps Nikolayev would have been spared with the Russians going straight for Odessa (I was skeptical, but at least a case could’ve been made). This is now all but impossible, essentially forcing Russia to take Nikolayev before potentially going further.
The only real constraint for Russia is the external price it pays + how Russophilic the local population is. As I mentioned before the invasion, Russia can easily roll Ukraine militarily. The Ukrainians are fighting bravely, but their military is simply no match.
A full annexation of Ukraine is technically possible, but it would be a catastrophic error since the restive population would make life extremely hard. Not to mention constant smuggling across the border to fuel an insurgency. China is also showing less enthusiastic signs of support. A few days ago, the CASS cut off all contact with their Russian academic counter-parts. Huawei is not re-supplying Russia’s telecom network (as of writing). The MIR payment system was also removed recently from Huawei’s HarmonyOS.
The military victories is the easy part. The hard part comes after.
It comes back to, "What deal can Zelensky make?" If both sides fund irregulars and proxies this could drag on for years. If an armistice can be achieved, the sides will separate more or less fully.
PEACE 😇
Poor fool. A life dedicated to slave labor awaits him.
Once you begin a gesture it can be fatal not to go through with it. West now has to go all the way, and that could turn a podunk provincial border-language dispute into a global disaster. I think it already has. But the "damn Russkies" will not speak Russian!!! that couldn't be allowed, as Mr. Hack is praying for so earnestly. There are a lot of fools around.Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack
2. The interviewer, Graham Phillips, got his start as a brothel reviewer. This is the type of person of extremely low character that Russia has to depend on. It is also why none of their Ukrainian quislings turned out for them.
3. Aiden Aslin is handcuffed and barely responsive. He is clearly under substantial duress. He does almost laugh a bit after the Mitchell and Webb reference, but he has the same general affect as those confessing their "guilt" in the Stalinist show trials.
4. In another video, he is clearly reading from a teleprompter. He is therefore obviously being forced to say specific lies.
5. In that other video, the Russians have dressed him in an Azov t-shirt. Aiden was never a member of Azov. Again, this proves that Russia is spinning an entirely fake story with a broken and tortured prisoner of war as their mouthpiece. This is sick.
Your posts tend to show a deeply antisocial personality. They have the ringing of secondary psychopathy to them. Nowadays this is normally comorbid with some degree of narcissism, that protects the individual from recognising the darkness in themselves, so they tend to revel in putting it onto others. My greatest wish for you is that you one day see yourself clearly, in the mirror, and, I mean this genuinely, because I do wish the best for you, I also wish that you somehow survive that encounter with who you truly are.Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian, @Aedib
The contrast is remarkable between :
— China — Unchecked Elite CCP rule
— U.S. — Elite WEF rule checked by a Judiciary
Shanghai remains locked down in search of WUHAN-19 total elimination. (1)
The U.S. is increasingly free of mask mandates: (2)
Which country would you rather live in?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/11/tucker-carlson-recaps-the-ongoing-horrors-in-shanghai-china/
(2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/18/the-madness-is-over-following-tsa-response-airlines-begin-announcing-they-are-dropping-mask-mandates/
Video Link
The more things happen the more the likes of S will turn out to be right, because Land said something about liberal capitalism that lies at the core of every totalizing and centralizing conspiracy theory ever.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNizGwjZbo0Replies: @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa
They are fools, but Russia will exchange them, they don’t matter. West is focused on PR, emotional “winning” and gestures. See Laxa’s rambling nonsense above for an example on how they are trained to describe losing as a “win“. It takes some work but means nothing in the real world.
Once you begin a gesture it can be fatal not to go through with it. West now has to go all the way, and that could turn a podunk provincial border-language dispute into a global disaster. I think it already has. But the “damn Russkies” will not speak Russian!!! that couldn’t be allowed, as Mr. Hack is praying for so earnestly. There are a lot of fools around.
https://twitter.com/FierroFortis/status/1516365295912374280
-- U.S. -- Elite WEF rule checked by a JudiciaryShanghai remains locked down in search of WUHAN-19 total elimination. (1) The U.S. is increasingly free of mask mandates: (2) Which country would you rather live in?PEACE 😇
__________(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/11/tucker-carlson-recaps-the-ongoing-horrors-in-shanghai-china/(2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/18/the-madness-is-over-following-tsa-response-airlines-begin-announcing-they-are-dropping-mask-mandates/
https://rumble.com/embed/vy1dwf/Replies: @Yellowface Anon
This is why every government that has ever adopted lockdowns are properly accelerationist, as with the general Build Back Better platform, starting strategically important wars, etc.
The more things happen the more the likes of S will turn out to be right, because Land said something about liberal capitalism that lies at the core of every totalizing and centralizing conspiracy theory ever.
Quite a feat. That he is correct about us all being fascists now is merely a statement of the obvious. Just think: a trivial twist of fate would have turned Nick Land into Gonzo Luria and vice versa!
So the CCP is accelerationist? What are they accelerating to... Total dystopian dysfunctionality? The CCP is clearly headed to a negative outcome at a precipitous rate of speed.
____
You missed a golden opportunity to tout the CCP lockdowns as cure to property valuation woes. If people move out of Shanghai to more remote locations, that may save property developers. Or, at least make their liquidation less painful.
PEACE 😇
It doesn't help that public infrastructure, including train and bus lines, are severely degraded today compared to the beginning of the conflict. Those who didn't flee yet will find it much harder this time than they'd have ~6 weeks ago.
---
With the sinking of the Moskva battleship, Russia's naval support bombardment capacities are curtailed to a significant extent. There was speculation that perhaps Nikolayev would have been spared with the Russians going straight for Odessa (I was skeptical, but at least a case could've been made). This is now all but impossible, essentially forcing Russia to take Nikolayev before potentially going further.
The only real constraint for Russia is the external price it pays + how Russophilic the local population is. As I mentioned before the invasion, Russia can easily roll Ukraine militarily. The Ukrainians are fighting bravely, but their military is simply no match.
A full annexation of Ukraine is technically possible, but it would be a catastrophic error since the restive population would make life extremely hard. Not to mention constant smuggling across the border to fuel an insurgency. China is also showing less enthusiastic signs of support. A few days ago, the CASS cut off all contact with their Russian academic counter-parts. Huawei is not re-supplying Russia's telecom network (as of writing). The MIR payment system was also removed recently from Huawei's HarmonyOS.
The military victories is the easy part. The hard part comes after.Replies: @A123
This is the point I have made several times before. In Iraq the U.S. Won the War the Lost the Peace. Russia can provide solid reconstruction in a limited area as a technique to Win the Peace. Taking more than they can reconstruct is non-viable.
It comes back to, “What deal can Zelensky make?” If both sides fund irregulars and proxies this could drag on for years. If an armistice can be achieved, the sides will separate more or less fully.
PEACE 😇
No credit to me only those Sevadars (volunteers) and the Guru.
It’s called Langar btw,
Degh Tegh Fateh or the Victory to Cauldron & Sword – references protection & alms to the poor.
It is the Sikh spiritual-political slogan of universal rule||
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
ISIS calls for more attacks in Israel, Europe
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-704472
Is Putin via his buddy Naftali Bennett trying to help Marine Le Pen? Or is it because narcissistic Israel needs more attention as everybody is talking about Ukraine?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY0gY_Jju2E
I do not see how his relationship with Putin would be anything special. Probably Bennet's friendship with Biden would be closer, if the latter could remember his name.Replies: @A123
The more things happen the more the likes of S will turn out to be right, because Land said something about liberal capitalism that lies at the core of every totalizing and centralizing conspiracy theory ever.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123
Nick Land lives in Shangai because he cannot get a job in the UK. He is sour grape poster child even though it has been decades since he technically was a child.
Quite a feat. That he is correct about us all being fascists now is merely a statement of the obvious. Just think: a trivial twist of fate would have turned Nick Land into Gonzo Luria and vice versa!
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-704472
Is Putin via his buddy Naftali Bennett trying to help Marine Le Pen? Or is it because narcissistic Israel needs more attention as everybody is talking about Ukraine?Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @sudden death, @Yevardian
That we have moved beyond Qanon to Uanon brings a tear to my eye. We could use a soundtrack.
The more things happen the more the likes of S will turn out to be right, because Land said something about liberal capitalism that lies at the core of every totalizing and centralizing conspiracy theory ever.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123
The BBB platform is all about maximizing social intervention. It has little to nothing to do with infrastructure. You are correct that this is a good fit to the CCP platform. FYI: BBB is dead in the U.S. as the SJW/DNC have alienated their own party members Manchin and Sinema.
So the CCP is accelerationist? What are they accelerating to… Total dystopian dysfunctionality? The CCP is clearly headed to a negative outcome at a precipitous rate of speed.
____
You missed a golden opportunity to tout the CCP lockdowns as cure to property valuation woes. If people move out of Shanghai to more remote locations, that may save property developers. Or, at least make their liquidation less painful.
PEACE 😇
The number of countries sending arms to Ukraine continues to shrink: (1)
Depleting ones own stockpiles to defend Ukraine has sharp limits. Zelensky will soon be facing a number of leaders who respond, “We would like to help, but we cannot.” Goodwill only goes so far.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.ansa.it/nuova_europa/en/news/sections/news/2022/04/14/ukraine-greece-no-more-weapons-to-kyiv_4e58e9f2-0816-4980-ad7f-f698601885f4.html
Midwits denying the primacy of economics are about to find out just how wrong they are.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.ansa.it/nuova_europa/en/news/sections/news/2022/04/14/ukraine-greece-no-more-weapons-to-kyiv_4e58e9f2-0816-4980-ad7f-f698601885f4.htmlReplies: @sudden death
IslamoPutin is very proud of your ability to select news headlines and the sources 😉
https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/825217.html
Why are you 100% WEF Muslim all the time? Muhammad the Settler Prophet must be proud of your Colonial ambition.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-704472
Is Putin via his buddy Naftali Bennett trying to help Marine Le Pen? Or is it because narcissistic Israel needs more attention as everybody is talking about Ukraine?Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @sudden death, @Yevardian
Maybe a coincidence, but Salman&Putin had a conversation several days ago too:
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-saudi-crown-prince-discussed-opec-oil-production-ukraine-war-on-phone-2897557
Once you begin a gesture it can be fatal not to go through with it. West now has to go all the way, and that could turn a podunk provincial border-language dispute into a global disaster. I think it already has. But the "damn Russkies" will not speak Russian!!! that couldn't be allowed, as Mr. Hack is praying for so earnestly. There are a lot of fools around.Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack
Thins go darker. This girl has something to tell about the abduction of Gonzalo Lira by Ukronazis. I´m afraid that he may be death right now, just as other journalists like Oles Busina that were killed by the regime.
It us unsurprising that you back your IslamoPope.
Why are you 100% WEF Muslim all the time? Muhammad the Settler Prophet must be proud of your Colonial ambition.
PEACE 😇
Why are you 100% WEF Muslim all the time? Muhammad the Settler Prophet must be proud of your Colonial ambition.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death
Klaus Schwab and IslamoPutin at WEF in Davos:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/1zazBaA9l1c/maxresdefault.jpg
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/the-pope-s-announcement-to-wef18/
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-01/pope-francis-world-economic-forum-davos-development-human-person.html
2015, 2018, and 2020...
PEACE 😇
https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1516405436534116353Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Ukraine is about right (from an even lower base) and Russia’s drop should be twice as much. Whatever it is, your point stands.
Very funny how A123 is mixing every boogeyman of his Judeo-Americana worldview into an amorphous mixture with a thousand limbs.
As I said, properly accelerationist.
Somehow SD come up with the bizarre association "IslamoPutin". I am simply matching his absurdity with something equally over the top. The "IslamoPope" as an avid backer of SD's Ukraine policy.
If SD stops, I will too...
____
Pope Francis is behaving shamefully and needs to be replaced by someone who will defend Christianity. That being said, I do not think that he has actually converted to Islam.
PEACE 😇
The Ukrainian regime is now threatening Patrick Lancaster. Better for him to stay with the Donbass militia. His frontline notes are amazing.
My prediction – sooner or later we will see some civilian plane downed and it will be claimed to be done with anti-aircraft weapons from UA war theatre zone in order to discredit Western weapon supplies as much as possible.
Maybe even before French presidential elections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNizGwjZbo0Replies: @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa
1. Aiden Aslin fits no definition of “mercenary.” He is a regular uniformed member of the Ukrainian military. Anyone who states otherwise is a liar or completely ignorant. Either way, they have no credibility.
2. The interviewer, Graham Phillips, got his start as a brothel reviewer. This is the type of person of extremely low character that Russia has to depend on. It is also why none of their Ukrainian quislings turned out for them.
3. Aiden Aslin is handcuffed and barely responsive. He is clearly under substantial duress. He does almost laugh a bit after the Mitchell and Webb reference, but he has the same general affect as those confessing their “guilt” in the Stalinist show trials.
4. In another video, he is clearly reading from a teleprompter. He is therefore obviously being forced to say specific lies.
5. In that other video, the Russians have dressed him in an Azov t-shirt. Aiden was never a member of Azov. Again, this proves that Russia is spinning an entirely fake story with a broken and tortured prisoner of war as their mouthpiece. This is sick.
Your posts tend to show a deeply antisocial personality. They have the ringing of secondary psychopathy to them. Nowadays this is normally comorbid with some degree of narcissism, that protects the individual from recognising the darkness in themselves, so they tend to revel in putting it onto others. My greatest wish for you is that you one day see yourself clearly, in the mirror, and, I mean this genuinely, because I do wish the best for you, I also wish that you somehow survive that encounter with who you truly are.
No doubt there have been enough atrocities in Z-War already, jury is out on who did what. He's just some 'deplorable' troll who enjoys posting gore and fantasising about slave labour, I doubt your armchair analysis will have any effect on such people. Save your hasbara for actual humans like Mikhail or Beckow.Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
Will Kamala seek revenge on the Saudis for airing a skit, where a man in drag portrays her? Or will the defense contractors keep her in the dark about it?
Once you begin a gesture it can be fatal not to go through with it. West now has to go all the way, and that could turn a podunk provincial border-language dispute into a global disaster. I think it already has. But the "damn Russkies" will not speak Russian!!! that couldn't be allowed, as Mr. Hack is praying for so earnestly. There are a lot of fools around.Replies: @Aedib, @Mr. Hack
Mr. Hack is praying earnestly for peace in Ukraine, especially during Orthodox Holy Week. We recently held a joint prayer meeting with our Protestant, Catholic and Jewish friends at the spacious Central Methodist Church in Phoenix.
This is a pretty dumb statement to try and ascribe to me. Equally dumb would be to ascribe something like this to you, but I wont:
But then again, as you point out, there are plenty of fools around…
“May you be cursed to forget your mother tongue” is the insult
My point is that the war in Donbas is basically about what language will the currently Russian speaking people allowed to use in the future. If Kiev wins it will be Ukrainian, if Russia they will be speaking Russian. It is pretty dumb to blow up Donbas, Europe, or the world over that issue. Why the fanatic resistance by Kiev to allow Russians a local autonomy? Language rights and killing are very different, so your attempt at analogy falls flat. It is not even remotely the same thing.
Speaking of prayers in Phoenix, I once had a great oven-made pizza in Grimaldi’s and just as we were ready to embrace the pleasant Scottsdale ambiance an open “party girls bus” with very drunk and violently screaming women slowly rode by…I have a strong stomach, but it was beyond good and evil, insanely sick as if evolution went haywire. The service worker cholas suddenly looked better to me – they were still short and chunky, but somehow more human. (See, I can grow as a person.)
Other than that I wish you good ecumenical prayers, maybe it will even work. But maybe just letting those poor Russian speakers be who they are would be a better solution. That simple step and no Nato or bust idiocy in Kiev could have saved a lot of lives.
Your IslamoPope at Davos WEF:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/the-pope-s-announcement-to-wef18/
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-01/pope-francis-world-economic-forum-davos-development-human-person.html
2015, 2018, and 2020…
PEACE 😇
Its much more humor than seriousness.
Somehow SD come up with the bizarre association “IslamoPutin”. I am simply matching his absurdity with something equally over the top. The “IslamoPope” as an avid backer of SD’s Ukraine policy.
If SD stops, I will too…
____
Pope Francis is behaving shamefully and needs to be replaced by someone who will defend Christianity. That being said, I do not think that he has actually converted to Islam.
PEACE 😇
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-704472
Is Putin via his buddy Naftali Bennett trying to help Marine Le Pen? Or is it because narcissistic Israel needs more attention as everybody is talking about Ukraine?Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @sudden death, @Yevardian
I remember predicting Naftali Bennet as Israel’s next PM as soon as I first heard about him in the late 2000s, such a living, fleshly anti-semitic trope could not not become the country’s leader one day.
I do not see how his relationship with Putin would be anything special. Probably Bennet’s friendship with Biden would be closer, if the latter could remember his name.
Including the Muslim Ra'am Party was necessary to meet the 61 seat threshold. However, it made the entire situation unstable. Search on the phrase "Bennett coalition crisis" and something seems to pop up every week. It could fall apart at any moment, requiring new elections. Not-The-President Biden's stance on Iran has probably degraded any relationship with Bennett. While JCPOA2, thankfully, appears to be finally dead. The White House occupant tried to keep it alive.
It is hard to score anyone's relationship with Putin. Bennett did seem to serve as a credible intermediary for potential Ukr/Rus negotiations.
PEACE 😇
2. The interviewer, Graham Phillips, got his start as a brothel reviewer. This is the type of person of extremely low character that Russia has to depend on. It is also why none of their Ukrainian quislings turned out for them.
3. Aiden Aslin is handcuffed and barely responsive. He is clearly under substantial duress. He does almost laugh a bit after the Mitchell and Webb reference, but he has the same general affect as those confessing their "guilt" in the Stalinist show trials.
4. In another video, he is clearly reading from a teleprompter. He is therefore obviously being forced to say specific lies.
5. In that other video, the Russians have dressed him in an Azov t-shirt. Aiden was never a member of Azov. Again, this proves that Russia is spinning an entirely fake story with a broken and tortured prisoner of war as their mouthpiece. This is sick.
Your posts tend to show a deeply antisocial personality. They have the ringing of secondary psychopathy to them. Nowadays this is normally comorbid with some degree of narcissism, that protects the individual from recognising the darkness in themselves, so they tend to revel in putting it onto others. My greatest wish for you is that you one day see yourself clearly, in the mirror, and, I mean this genuinely, because I do wish the best for you, I also wish that you somehow survive that encounter with who you truly are.Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian, @Aedib
Thou protest too much. The definition of a mercenary is: a professional soldier hired to serve in a foreign army. Aiden looks very frumpy, so I am not sure about calling him a “professional” in any context, but other than that he is an Englishman fighting in a foreign war for money. A mercenary.
I watched the video and Aiden looks scared, but speaks freely and there are no signs of coercion. He is trying to ingratiate himself, but that comes with the situation he is in – no reason to generalize and project that the “evil” Russians made him do it.
If it was reversed, I suspect you would be the first one screaming that “see, even the Russian says it“, and you would deny that any coercion is even possible when it comes to the West or Kiev. Obviously in your mind. Try to be more even-handed, the breathless tribalism that you display here is embarrassing.
Regarding the “brothel reviewer”, wow…do you know that Zelensky played piano on TV with his dick? You know the saying about people in glass houses…
You must have been a nightmare for your divorce lawyers.
Beckow: “No, tell the judge that she is at fault for having her face punched in and being beaten and put into hospital.”
Lawyer: “But you’re on camera punching her.”
Beckow: “She provoked me!”
Lawyer: “Did she hit you first or hold a gun up to your head?”
Beckow: “No, she insisted that official conversations with her sister not be in a foreign language, even though her sister prefers it.”
Lawyer: looks at other lawyer and rolls eyes.
Beckow: “you lawyers are all the same, you are are controlled by your emotions and so degenerate and so hysterical and you always lose and you don’t know anything about anything real or anything about winning.”
Judge: “Beckow, your ex-wife gets the freedom of her divorce and will keep the house.”
Beckow (but many years later, while drowning in whisky and misery): “If only Putin will win and show those damn slut Westerners and the puerile Ukrainians that I was right all along.”
Ukrainian war sitrep: Russia has less territory than it did 3 weeks ago. Has still not yet taken a Ukrainian city opposed. Has lost its Black Sea flagship. Is substantially degraded and is facing a Ukrainian force that gets stronger by the day. Meanwhile, the Russian economy will fall by at least 10% this year, the Chinese are bored of their bungling and Western support for Ukraine is only getting going. Now that Putin has guaranteed Macron’s re-election, Germany will start buying tremendous amounts of arms for Ukraine. Beckow’s hopes for a Ukraine reduced to a landlocked country are already beyond reasonable imagination. He can only hope that a fair judge comes in and allows Russia to keep as much as Beckow did in his divorce, which won’t be his dignity or most of his soul, but it might be what he started with.
As for your characterisation of the sexual predator Graham Phillip’s interview of the uniformed servicemen “CossackGundi”, you admit that it is sick propaganda probably taken under torture in the second part of your reply. You see how your consciousness is fragmented? You make the classic cluster B argument that “I didn’t do it, and she deserved it.” You have a defective personality. Don’t worry though, you can change it.
It certainly depends to whom you were talking in your ‘wide experience’ of Romanians. I guess that they were the ‘westernized’ category which believes that being anti-Russian is the ticket to be ‘accepted’ by ‘Europe’ (and get ‘European funds’). But this attitude has deep seated roots in the relentless ‘Western’ anti-Orthodox propaganda in all its disguises Catholic, Protestant, progressive, liberal, revolutionary, LGBT, Open Society, you name it).
2. The interviewer, Graham Phillips, got his start as a brothel reviewer. This is the type of person of extremely low character that Russia has to depend on. It is also why none of their Ukrainian quislings turned out for them.
3. Aiden Aslin is handcuffed and barely responsive. He is clearly under substantial duress. He does almost laugh a bit after the Mitchell and Webb reference, but he has the same general affect as those confessing their "guilt" in the Stalinist show trials.
4. In another video, he is clearly reading from a teleprompter. He is therefore obviously being forced to say specific lies.
5. In that other video, the Russians have dressed him in an Azov t-shirt. Aiden was never a member of Azov. Again, this proves that Russia is spinning an entirely fake story with a broken and tortured prisoner of war as their mouthpiece. This is sick.
Your posts tend to show a deeply antisocial personality. They have the ringing of secondary psychopathy to them. Nowadays this is normally comorbid with some degree of narcissism, that protects the individual from recognising the darkness in themselves, so they tend to revel in putting it onto others. My greatest wish for you is that you one day see yourself clearly, in the mirror, and, I mean this genuinely, because I do wish the best for you, I also wish that you somehow survive that encounter with who you truly are.Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian, @Aedib
He’s fighting for the military of a foreign country, probably in a special unit, as I doubt he speaks Ukrainian. Are the Foreign Legion mercenaries? Is Blackwater? Were the kids fighting for the Taliban mercenaries? Was Orwell in Spain? Inherently slippery term.
Nice. Apparently ‘The Exile’ had a similar schtick, though I’ve yet to delve into this literary genre.
G_d save Ukrainian POW’s from such atrocities like being forced to wear an Azov Battalion t-shirt against their will. The Most Moral Army in the World (TM) would never stoop to such things. Putin should learn from Operation Cast Lead or Operation Grapes of Wrath for lessons in humane peacekeeping. Not engage in whataboutism here, just pointing out your blatant hypocrisy.
No doubt there have been enough atrocities in Z-War already, jury is out on who did what.
He’s just some ‘deplorable’ troll who enjoys posting gore and fantasising about slave labour, I doubt your armchair analysis will have any effect on such people. Save your hasbara for actual humans like Mikhail or Beckow.
It is just that if, on this website, you don't consider Israel the epitome of evil, then you are supposedly Israeli.
I think Israel is pretty reasonable for a Middle Eastern country and is a moderate regional power. It isn't particularly important, except as an aspect of US foreign policy, or as a channel for the derangement of internet anti-Semites.
I've generally much preferred the Israelis I have met to the other Middle Easterners, but they are no Azov or Ukrainian marines defending their homes against a nuclear former superpower. They are muddling along in a troubled part of the world, not heroes for all of time.
I also don't have suggestions for how the Israelis could go about their business better given their situation in the world, but I cannot say the same thing for Russia, which further explains the difference. Russia should just withdraw, while I have no idea how Israel could untangle its knot.
I also feel much more affectionately for European peoples, am much more concerned with European peace and unashamed to admit it. Do you have a problem with that? I don't. It doesn't mean I wish anyone harm. It just means that I am not a universal God, undivided. You're right that he is sacrificing his humanity. It pains me to see it. It should pain you, at least a little. But he isn't a "deplorable." He is an ASPD child.Replies: @Yevardian
2. The interviewer, Graham Phillips, got his start as a brothel reviewer. This is the type of person of extremely low character that Russia has to depend on. It is also why none of their Ukrainian quislings turned out for them.
3. Aiden Aslin is handcuffed and barely responsive. He is clearly under substantial duress. He does almost laugh a bit after the Mitchell and Webb reference, but he has the same general affect as those confessing their "guilt" in the Stalinist show trials.
4. In another video, he is clearly reading from a teleprompter. He is therefore obviously being forced to say specific lies.
5. In that other video, the Russians have dressed him in an Azov t-shirt. Aiden was never a member of Azov. Again, this proves that Russia is spinning an entirely fake story with a broken and tortured prisoner of war as their mouthpiece. This is sick.
Your posts tend to show a deeply antisocial personality. They have the ringing of secondary psychopathy to them. Nowadays this is normally comorbid with some degree of narcissism, that protects the individual from recognising the darkness in themselves, so they tend to revel in putting it onto others. My greatest wish for you is that you one day see yourself clearly, in the mirror, and, I mean this genuinely, because I do wish the best for you, I also wish that you somehow survive that encounter with who you truly are.Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian, @Aedib
If “he is a regular uniformed member of the Ukrainian military”, why is he begging to Boris Johnson for rescue? He should ask the coca-addict. Anyway, he would be a nice slave to reconstruct some schools in Donetsk.
I do not see how his relationship with Putin would be anything special. Probably Bennet's friendship with Biden would be closer, if the latter could remember his name.Replies: @A123
His coalition’s sole purpose seems to be “anyone but Netanyahu”. Has it achieved anything beyond the ministerial (e.g. passing a budget)?
Including the Muslim Ra’am Party was necessary to meet the 61 seat threshold. However, it made the entire situation unstable. Search on the phrase “Bennett coalition crisis” and something seems to pop up every week. It could fall apart at any moment, requiring new elections.
Not-The-President Biden’s stance on Iran has probably degraded any relationship with Bennett. While JCPOA2, thankfully, appears to be finally dead. The White House occupant tried to keep it alive.
It is hard to score anyone’s relationship with Putin. Bennett did seem to serve as a credible intermediary for potential Ukr/Rus negotiations.
PEACE 😇
So the true Donbass Offensive is beginning. Do or die time for ‘Special Operation Ukraine’. I suppose by Victory Day we’ll all see whether Scott Ritter, Karlin, Islamic Revert Mike Whitney and Our Benevolent Overlord were right in their hunches or analysis.
Is Morgoth right when he says that the LBGT agenda is like myxomatosis for Europeans?
That’s a very strange prediction you’re making.
I think we both agree that Russia’s performance in the criminal war they started has been embarrassing. But we must live in very different realities if you think that someone claiming that Ukraine has downed a civilian plane will get any airtime in the West at all, even if this time (unlike with MH17) they were indeed the culprits.
As we speak, the Azov neonazis (who of course have not been banned from Twitter and, unlike unbiased observers, are free to post there what they want) are claiming to have lots of civilians holed up with them in their last Mariupol redoubt. In other words, they are openly claiming to be using civilians as a shield. There is zero reason for those civilians not to be evacuated from there immediately, whoever they are, while hundreds of soldiers are managing to surrender to the Russians from those same positions and stay alive, eg the two British captives. However, and this really beggars belief, the CNN is spinning that situation as proof of another Russian atrocity.
I do agree that as this war goes on, we are almost guaranteed to see new massacres and f*ckups. They always happen in these situations, without the need of any false flag, and they seem to be even more common when the Russians are involved.
No doubt there have been enough atrocities in Z-War already, jury is out on who did what. He's just some 'deplorable' troll who enjoys posting gore and fantasising about slave labour, I doubt your armchair analysis will have any effect on such people. Save your hasbara for actual humans like Mikhail or Beckow.Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
No, your answer is “inherently slippery” or perhaps just plain ignorant. He is a Ukrainian citizen, with a Ukrainian citizen wife, serving in the regular uniformed Ukrainian forces.
Graham Phillip’s whole affect is repulsive. Maybe it isn’t obvious to non-Brits like you, or maybe you are similarly pure slime. What do you think?
You are engaging in whataboutism and there’s no hypocrisy on my part. I’m not Israeli nor Jewish.
It is just that if, on this website, you don’t consider Israel the epitome of evil, then you are supposedly Israeli.
I think Israel is pretty reasonable for a Middle Eastern country and is a moderate regional power. It isn’t particularly important, except as an aspect of US foreign policy, or as a channel for the derangement of internet anti-Semites.
I’ve generally much preferred the Israelis I have met to the other Middle Easterners, but they are no Azov or Ukrainian marines defending their homes against a nuclear former superpower. They are muddling along in a troubled part of the world, not heroes for all of time.
I also don’t have suggestions for how the Israelis could go about their business better given their situation in the world, but I cannot say the same thing for Russia, which further explains the difference. Russia should just withdraw, while I have no idea how Israel could untangle its knot.
I also feel much more affectionately for European peoples, am much more concerned with European peace and unashamed to admit it. Do you have a problem with that? I don’t. It doesn’t mean I wish anyone harm. It just means that I am not a universal God, undivided.
You’re right that he is sacrificing his humanity. It pains me to see it. It should pain you, at least a little. But he isn’t a “deplorable.” He is an ASPD child.
The latest assesment I’ve read from the Pentagon is that the really true one has not yet begun and the Russians are just testing the enemy lines.
Mariupol?
In the last few days around 3k Ukie soldiers surrendered. Their material is getting blown up day after day. Stronger? Let’s see what they will do with that “strength”, you think they may take Donetsk or march on Moscow?
One more time: Russia is controlling Black See and the coast, they pushed even a thought of Nato out of Ukraine. They are winning. When it’s over, you will hide.
It is the West that is getting bored with it, they have minimal ability to suffer and without cheap resources from Russia they will live worse. 10% down economy in Russia? That’s it? That is a rounding error given how squishy the so-called “GNP” numbers are when you look at them closely.
You are way off with your silly and badly written dialogue on “divorce”. Way off. It shows that your liberalism infected mind can only think in predictable channels – cliche stuff that your saw in movies or videos, the shallow generalities that the Western under-educated class feeds to each other.
Are you still defending Nato bombers as “meaning well”? Do you realize what the rest of the world is thinking about the sudden Western hysteria about the “horrors of war“? After the likes of Blair and Obama, Clintons and Bush were celebrated for “humanitarian bombing”? Or whatever cacamonie excuse the media was feeding you. 80% of the world is watching the Western mental collapse and wondering how low can they go. How low can hypocrisy go? And where are you going to hide once the war is over and Russia controls the Black See coast?
Every time the right gives these retards the benefit of the doubt or let themselves get shouted down.Replies: @A123
It is just that if, on this website, you don't consider Israel the epitome of evil, then you are supposedly Israeli.
I think Israel is pretty reasonable for a Middle Eastern country and is a moderate regional power. It isn't particularly important, except as an aspect of US foreign policy, or as a channel for the derangement of internet anti-Semites.
I've generally much preferred the Israelis I have met to the other Middle Easterners, but they are no Azov or Ukrainian marines defending their homes against a nuclear former superpower. They are muddling along in a troubled part of the world, not heroes for all of time.
I also don't have suggestions for how the Israelis could go about their business better given their situation in the world, but I cannot say the same thing for Russia, which further explains the difference. Russia should just withdraw, while I have no idea how Israel could untangle its knot.
I also feel much more affectionately for European peoples, am much more concerned with European peace and unashamed to admit it. Do you have a problem with that? I don't. It doesn't mean I wish anyone harm. It just means that I am not a universal God, undivided. You're right that he is sacrificing his humanity. It pains me to see it. It should pain you, at least a little. But he isn't a "deplorable." He is an ASPD child.Replies: @Yevardian
A citizen? Ok then, score to you.
Do you think I implied otherwise? It’s just darkly funny to picture some ugly manlet professionally ‘reviewing’ brothels. But perhaps such a person is the best candidate, a handsome businessman might not not give such objective ‘analysis’. Of course, repulsive and ridiculous things are easily laughed at. Too bad, you seem just as humourless as our dear German_Reader.
How many other countries with a population of under 10 million do you know with their own Nuclear Weapons program and have attacked every single one of their neighbors?
Yeah, I don’t think you’ve met enough Israelis.. I used to work in hospitality as an undergrad, Israelis were always among the drunkest, rudest and most entitled patrons from any nationality on average you’d interact with. A friend of mine in the tourist industry would concur.
No, go ahead. But statements about Iraqis ‘unable to stop killing each other after occupation’ in contrast to Ukraine are extremely stupid, dishonest and ignorant. You do know the Americans disbanded the entire Iraqi government, army and even police force, to an artificial state created by foreigners, after decades of sanctions? It’s not as if Europe provides a civilised counterexample with Yugoslavia or WWII.
Pain me? Probably just some kid or dumb adult venting online, that’s what the ‘ignore’ function is for.
The need to resist unprovoked assaults by violent Islamists made Israel what it is today. For which you condemn an entire nation of people living in their religious homeland?
That seems a little unfair.
PEACE 😇
No, it is indeed not possible as civilian flights are forbidden and not going at all over all Ukraine atm.
Should have specified what kind of attack I was talking about – it may be some ISIS cell shooting down the civilian plane in the West and it will be claimed they got the portable antiaircraft guns from Ukrainian soil.
It does not even have to be UA or RF army soldiers, there is more than plenty of natural war chaos right now, it can be argued that some gun cache might have been blown up and scattered with some left intact or just abandoned during the fight by any side, then picked up by some local petty criminals, contrabanded and sold outside UA.
I wonder how this works, in God’s “mind.”
Was he completely neutral on the Ukraine war and planning on going with whichever side prays better or harder? The most interested parties in this affair would presumably be Ukrainians and Russians themselves, so I’m sure God, being a fair sort of guy, would make it “per capita prayer” otherwise the Russians could win on numbers alone. Then I guess a joint prayer session probably gets a “multifaith multiplier bonus,” otherwise it’s merely a case of adding more numbers to your side, which might even have the perverse effect of diluting your per capita prayer strength.
And all of that is assuming God was originally neutral on the war. But would he really be? We’re usually told that “God has a plan,” typically meaning that God has a plan for each one of us, which obviously implies he has a plan for each Russian and each Ukrainian. If you combine all those individual plans, surely what results is an indirect “net plan,” with obvious implications for the war itself. So now is the idea that if you pray hard or skillfully enough you can get God to change his plans? Like God wasn’t really planning on intervening on your side, but with all this praying you’ve somehow twisted his arm? And what’s the significance of Holy Week with respect to prayer? Is God more susceptible to prayer during this week, such that you’d really want to save your most difficult prayer requests for this week – some prayers that would never otherwise stand a chance actually have a shot at being answered this week?
How many other countries with less than 10MM population have been repeatedly attacked by their neighbours, and thus needs nuclear weapons program to survive?
The need to resist unprovoked assaults by violent Islamists made Israel what it is today.
For which you condemn an entire nation of people living in their religious homeland?
That seems a little unfair.
PEACE 😇
God has to be fair, it is a given. An unfair God is an oxymoron to a modern mind. (The Ancients had fewer scruples and had cheating and unfair Gods, but for them the concept of divinity was simply tied to immortality – Gods didn’t die, we did. Jesus fixed that.)
We can tease out God’s will in the war based on which side cheats more. It seems like it is not even a contest: Kiev brags about cheating, it celebrates its own deceptions (based on 98% support by the Western media), its strategy is to win by being clever. Russia on the other hand is slow, prodding, sticks to fighting the war on the ground, seldom embellishes.
No matter how much Mr. Hack and his dancing multicultural cohorts in the deserts of American Southwest pray, God will have to go with the more fair side. If cheaters win that would effectively deny the very existence of God. We could not have that, it is Easter after all.
Your ecclesiology is atrocious.
Check out the Parable of the Ten Talents. It actually has much explanatory value for real life.
Permitting ''Pride parades'' like the huge one in Ukraine in 2021 is ''mocking God''.Replies: @AP
When writing my comment to S above I recalled two pieces of observation of apparent synchronicities when the war against Iraq in 2003 was about to begin that as if they were trying to reveal to us what was the true cause of that war. First it was the shuttle Columbia disaster with an Israeli astronaut on board that fell apart above Texas and a lot of debris was found in little town Palestine, Texas which was mention a lot of times in news then. And then when attack on Iraq began there was the story of American soldier Jessica Lynch who was turned into American heroine by media who however in the end did not want to go along with it. Jessica Lynch was form Palestine, West Virginia. She'd rather return to Palestine, WV than be a celebrity. The two Palestines bracketed the coverage of Iraq war. So when I wrote that comment to S I knew where he was coming from and how it feels to discover something and give it a meaning that probably nobody else sees. But I also know not to hold to it. I made my discovery because Palestine, Israel and Israel lobby and Yinon plan were on my mind when war with Iraq project was lunched and its marketing began at the end of Summer 2002. I had no illusion about the true reasons for the war against Iraq.Replies: @Dmitry
I would guess because with end of the Cold War in 1991 (then Yeltsin was more peaceful to the West during the first term 1991-1995), there is a reduction of the motive for military funding in the USA.
If you remove USSR as a threat, Japan was the second largest economy in 1991 (today it is only third largest, multiple times smaller than China), and China’s economy was smaller than Spain.* If you wanted funding for conventional weapons like navy boats, only Japan has a significant enough budget in that time.
Someone in the military-industry or thinktank in the USA, will need to write about how Japan is the greatest threat to America (probably someone was also writing about Germany).
Otherwise, there is no barrier to people that would say “let’s reduce the military budget and invest the funding to helping homeless people in our streets or solving cancer”.
After all, those military industry and thinktank professionals, need to pay bills. In Washington DC, probably expensive schools for their children. If someone was going to write “maybe we should reduce the budget, reduce funding for thinktanks, invest the money into healthcare and infrastructure”, it might be so popular.
It’s the same reason Western media and experts, hype the Russian military and write about how dangerous, without anyone explaining there is no electronics building capability in Russia, so how would there be such a modernized equipment (excluding what electronics can be imported or what other technological advantage has been inherited from the superpower USSR, such as jet engines)? Western experts write all these articles about how T-14 Armata tank will be a threat in 2015. But T-14 Armata tank in 2015, was only a mock for the parade.
Interesting, that Western experts, are probably one of the reasons in Russia, politicians believe they had a stronger military, as there is information opacity especially for them within Russia, and the local media is designed like “Western expert says Russia’s military is the strongest in the world”. (I don’t think Chinese will be so vulnerable for this trap, one reason as their culture is not such a reflection from the Western one.)
*
If people think that there will be a good trade relationship, then the expectation of war is low. OTOH, if people think that there will be a bad trade relationship, then the expectation of war is high.
In the early '90s, it was clear to everyone that the US was getting its ass handed to it by Japan, economically. Japan was regularly taking plane loads of gold from the US, due to a massive trade deficit. Japanese brands, like Sony, Nintendo, Sega, and Toyota were displacing old American ones. Rising Sun by Crichton was a pretty mainstream book, and they even made it into a movie with Connery and Wesley Snipes.
It wasn't really a crazy idea that Japan and the US would go to war. (at least, if one forgot about nukes). It had happened before. It only seems crazy, in hindsight, with additional information. People weren't thinking a lot about demographics and age cohorts back then.Replies: @Wokechoke
It actually doesn’t. As most folk stories it hasn’t aged well – entertainment is one thing that doesn’t travel well over time.
”God is not mocked”.
Permitting ”Pride parades” like the huge one in Ukraine in 2021 is ”mocking God”.
There is a story viral today in the international media. Tinkov (a famous businessman in Russia), writing in Instagram today, how can you expect we didn’t have a bad army, when everything in the country is bad.
This story is reported in CNBC and The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/20/russian-tycoon-oleg-tinkov-denounces-insane-war-in-ukraine
https://www.instagram.com/p/CciExous6w9/
I would say many didn’t imagine, because.
1. You expect the Moscow billionaire politicians prioritize the army. When the healthcare, education, science, culture, etc, is being stolen from, it can be because the Moscow politicians, are not interested in e.g. healthcare of elderly people (they have some of the best private hospitals in Moscow, if not also in Germany and Israel). But some part of the power of even Moscow politicians who don’t care about healthcare or education, is depending on the army.
2. Security forces and police apparatus, is very powerful and invested (in Russia), so there is sense of family resemblance in mind between internal security services and military. People infer from the power of the police to control the country internally, to the power of the military to control externally.
3. The USSR had the most powerful land army in the world, and most of its equipment and technology is still working in the army.
4. Because the internal propaganda has been effective.
5. Because the Western propaganda and experts, are also saying (until this year) that the Russian military is very powerful. Probably mainly an internal game to increase funding for the military-industrial complex.
I was thinking about some parallel with the current Russian Army.Replies: @Dmitry
This war is a pity. Ukraine managed not only to recapture the post-Maidan slump but indeed had become richer than at any point since the collapse of the USSR. There was no reason to think it wouldn’t have continued if the war hadn’t started.
But the damage has been so extensive that even if Ukraine were to limit Putin’s annexation aims to “only” the Donbass (highly unlikely at this point, IMO), then the country has been more or less finished economically.
As I keep saying, the real test of the West’s solidarity will be in the postwar settlements. The economic needs will be gigantic. My view is that Ukraine will be allowed to rot, only to be used as a potential insurgency outpost. Real concern in Western capitals for the country does not exist.
Not true. For one thing Ukraine has no incentive to stop fighting and concede the loss of territory while it could get those areas back militarily, or through economic pressure on Russia brining it to its knees. Crucially, Zelensky is saying Ukraine could be ‘neutral’, but he is demanding in effect Charter 5 of NATO security guarantees so he would in effect be getting all the benefits of NATO membership with this dubious ‘neutrality’. Russia cannot agree to that, and so it is very difficult to see how this ends before Russia is exhausted, which will take a long time, if it ever happens. Ukraine might make concessions if Russia was looking like it was going to conquer the entire Ukraine (not just the coast and East), but I don’t see that as at all likely because the West is too difficult due to having a more anti Russian population, urban areas, terrain and rivers ECT
Are they thinking they can replicated Croatia clearing Serb militias out of Krajina? Lol.Replies: @Sean
Reality is the Ukrainian military has suffered horrendous losses of trained personnel and equipment, they are being reduced to cannon fodder conscripts and outdated weapons they can't use. The economic situation is dire and deteriorating, for both the Ukraine and their sponsors. It is over and has been for a while.
https://i.imgur.com/JRj3oNh.jpgReplies: @songbird
There is a guy named Dale Copeland who came up with a theory that the cause of war is related to expectations around trade. Under this theory, it may not have even had much to do with the end of the Cold War, but rather Japan’s economic rise.
If people think that there will be a good trade relationship, then the expectation of war is low. OTOH, if people think that there will be a bad trade relationship, then the expectation of war is high.
In the early ’90s, it was clear to everyone that the US was getting its ass handed to it by Japan, economically. Japan was regularly taking plane loads of gold from the US, due to a massive trade deficit. Japanese brands, like Sony, Nintendo, Sega, and Toyota were displacing old American ones. Rising Sun by Crichton was a pretty mainstream book, and they even made it into a movie with Connery and Wesley Snipes.
It wasn’t really a crazy idea that Japan and the US would go to war. (at least, if one forgot about nukes). It had happened before. It only seems crazy, in hindsight, with additional information. People weren’t thinking a lot about demographics and age cohorts back then.
You actually are asking a lot of really good questions. I wont actually try to pretend that I have the answers or understand the mind of God, that you are actually seeking to do. I think that some of the answers that you’re looking for can be found in the story about Cain and Abel, the analogy between it and the Russians and Ukrainians, two Slavic brotherly neighbors is striking. Many theologians have already written about this story, so I doubt that I could write anything profoundly new about it.
Prayer during the holy week should be heard and responded to more closely by the Almighty because it’s done during a period of fasting and lent. Christ himself implored people to fast and pray together, especially for help related to areas in your life where you seem stuck and aren’t getting the help or relief that you’re seeking.
Western governments will regret encouraging the recruitment of their nationals into the Azov force structure. It gave Russia a trove of hostages that will have to be explained away by each government respectively. Letting them get caught in Mariupol is mind boggling given that the combat has just started for Kramatorsk. These people will not look sympathetic. defeated Losers and then they will have fascist affiliations back home. you’ve just given the Russians hostages you dimwits, righ in the middle of Kesselschlacht.
Likely in wars God is always on his own side. The prayers are for people to recognise and conform themselves to his will, so that they can move towards beatitude, or I guess with the Orthodox, Theosis. Easter is a good time for prayer of this kind because it commemorates the time God showed the highest level of interest in bringing humanity close to him.
2. Security forces and police apparatus, is very powerful and invested (in Russia), so there is sense of family resemblance in mind between internal security services and military. People infer from the power of the police to control the country internally, to the power of the military to control externally. 3. The USSR had the most powerful land army in the world, and most of its equipment and technology is still working in the army. 4. Because the internal propaganda has been effective. 5. Because the Western propaganda and experts, are also saying (until this year) that the Russian military is very powerful. Probably mainly an internal game to increase funding for the military-industrial complex.Replies: @Coconuts
We were talking about the Spanish Civil War on the other thread, I read a memorable book about the Spanish Army in the post-1939 period called ‘El Gigante Descalzo’. The author was a Spanish historian who had served as an officer between 1939 and 1981, so partly it was based on his own direct experience. Anyway, he describes the high social status and political importance of the army in Franco’s era, its huge size, the scale of spending (concentrated on salaries and sustenance for all the troops), but also the poverty of equipment and limited operational capability (it may have performed okay in a defensive war on Spanish territory, small colonial wars).
I was thinking about some parallel with the current Russian Army.
High social status things like computer science, attracted the well organized and motivated students, and this filter can overcome problems created by institutional lack of investments and local chaos. But with the army in 21st century Russia, it's one of the more socially perceived low status job, so what kind of filter for selection does this create for recruitment. I don't think they will filter for on average, people with high organization abilities, that can overcome the institutional problems. -It's interesting though, in Soviet culture we have a different image of the army, the Soviet officer has an noble and elite image. The perception of the Soviet officer, was also an educated person. There is also an ideal of selfless sacrifice, I guess from people reading too much Arkady Gaidar. In the postsoviet, this perception of the career, almost reversed quite a lot. From media consumption, I remember a lot nowadays, the world famous story about Admiral Mukhametshin insulting Kant in Konigsberg/Kaliningrad. (There is the BBC article about this idiot https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46440713) In a serious or elite dictatorship, you would need to be executed for saying these things about Kant. This obsession about ceremony and perception, is something similar to Latin culture. If you watch on YouTube at events of Chile in Pinochet, their parades remind a lot of Soviet culture. Although even developed countries' armies like UK, have ceremonial soldiers and functions, so maybe it is not so unusual. But in the Russian army, why tankers have special ceremony salutes. VDV have a different "dance move" with hands on waist. You can see at 58:00. (At 59:30 you can see mock vehicles made for the parade). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc-MtpQVQfcAnd all those honor guards, who are selected for their physical appearance (you need to be unusually good looking, young and tall to be selected for that job - although in recent years they remove the requirement of slavic appearance). It's becoming a bit close to Kpop.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BduC2N4PaTIReplies: @Wokechoke
https://i.imgur.com/b3a60YU.png
But the damage has been so extensive that even if Ukraine were to limit Putin's annexation aims to "only" the Donbass (highly unlikely at this point, IMO), then the country has been more or less finished economically.
As I keep saying, the real test of the West's solidarity will be in the postwar settlements. The economic needs will be gigantic. My view is that Ukraine will be allowed to rot, only to be used as a potential insurgency outpost. Real concern in Western capitals for the country does not exist.
https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman/status/1513992300464119809Replies: @AP
Unless Ukraine is given Russia’s seized assets as compensation.
Also there is the likelihood that the most destroyed places like Mariupol will end up with Russia and not have to be fixed by Ukraine.
He can’t possibly last very long politically. He’s trousering too much of the funds. Losing too much ground. There’s so many tanks the Russians can field the long term prospects of Ukrainian recovery are slim. I guess Zelenskyy can try to be a little De Gaulle and make some speech about how they can technically match the Russians but it’s a big problem that he’s not really a Ukrainian. He’s more like a crumby Mandel in that analogy. Some obscure Ukrainian Brigadier will have to lead that Junto. Even then some of the regular soldiers are frightened about a prolonged war.
Are they thinking they can replicated Croatia clearing Serb militias out of Krajina? Lol.
The Russian generals dawdled launching the current Donbass offensive, which suggests they are reluctant because they believe attaining the objectives of the advance will be quite a challenge and their careers will be ended be any failure. They would be much happier with the Ukrainians attacking; that is what they they are trained and equipped for. I happen to think the Ukrainians generals see this war as an opportunity for personal aggrandizement, and they love that the Russians are attacking.Replies: @LondonBob
The commission that doles out money to Ukrainian families for damages, how much do you think gets down to residents of Bucha? Widows of Ukraine’s troops? How much ends up in the hands of high officials? They, Kiev, failed to pay out pensions they owed people who they didnt like before. The temptations to pocket the loot will be enormous and carry no consequences for celebrities like Zelenskyy. Larry Summers et al will get a cut.
Ukraine will lose the factories like Zap Sich soon. The Russians are building up over whelming forces on that long unfortufied front.
If people think that there will be a good trade relationship, then the expectation of war is low. OTOH, if people think that there will be a bad trade relationship, then the expectation of war is high.
In the early '90s, it was clear to everyone that the US was getting its ass handed to it by Japan, economically. Japan was regularly taking plane loads of gold from the US, due to a massive trade deficit. Japanese brands, like Sony, Nintendo, Sega, and Toyota were displacing old American ones. Rising Sun by Crichton was a pretty mainstream book, and they even made it into a movie with Connery and Wesley Snipes.
It wasn't really a crazy idea that Japan and the US would go to war. (at least, if one forgot about nukes). It had happened before. It only seems crazy, in hindsight, with additional information. People weren't thinking a lot about demographics and age cohorts back then.Replies: @Wokechoke
Was Gold ever physically transferred? I doubt it.
I remember seeing it, on the news.
Really? Wow. That’s an unusual event for the US. They tend not to allow the transfer of the physical gold. Germany for example.
Are they thinking they can replicated Croatia clearing Serb militias out of Krajina? Lol.Replies: @Sean
I think the policy of Xi is key. There range of comprehension is narrow In America the issue is framed as a pre-WW2 situation in which appeasement will cause further aggression, although Russia is barely a match for Ukraine and has a twelfth of the force needed to attack Nato (and that is assuming his conscript and short service contract troops are equivalent to the West’s time served professionals). Biden seems to be gaining political capital from backing Zelensky, who is not going to be cut off. In fact Ukraine’s stocks of crucial arms are are larger than at the begining of the war,
The Russian generals dawdled launching the current Donbass offensive, which suggests they are reluctant because they believe attaining the objectives of the advance will be quite a challenge and their careers will be ended be any failure. They would be much happier with the Ukrainians attacking; that is what they they are trained and equipped for. I happen to think the Ukrainians generals see this war as an opportunity for personal aggrandizement, and they love that the Russians are attacking.
Biden has seen his approval ratings to continue to plummet, the far more savvy Trump has publicly called for a negotiated peace, JD Vance has surged in Ohio adopting such a position, pressuring the whole GOP.
Russian generals are limiting losses and working on further attrition, given the uptick in surrenders it is working.
The Ukrainian generals are looking at pocketing cash from sales of Western equipment to Arms dealers, they know this is over.Replies: @Sean
But that’s not what ordinary religious people pray for at all. They pray in an attempt to establish communication with a God that stays mysteriously silent but they nevertheless believe in. And oftentimes, the objective of that attempted communication is just to request God’s help with their earthly matters.
In fact, I suspect that not all of the participants in that joint prayer in Phoenix had exactly the same requests for God. Some were probably praying just for peace but, as I understand it, Mr Hack would not be in favor of only peace. One that leaves a substantial part of the country of his ancestors in Russian hands would likely not be satisfactory for him. Also, while he prays for peace, I understand that he supports sending large amounts of weapons that will prolong the war and maybe (not sure about that) the imposition of a NFZ that could imperil peace well beyond Ukraine’s frontiers.
So indeed, unless God has some immutable position of his own, it would be difficult for him to pay too much attention to what all his very different followers are trying to tell him. Silviosilver’s doubts are very sensible.
Likewise the part about God being mysteriously silent, to you maybe God is, to others God isn't.
What I wrote was based on the content of formal prayers (including really basic ones like the 'Our Father'), liturgy, and content that is all over the both the Bible and Catholic and Orthodox theology. I can take a guess about what the Christian content of the prayer service might have been, because they usually follow similar lines. Prayer for peace, that the decision makers will seek to do what God wills, that if war happens it should be fought for just reasons and with proportionality, that God be merciful on the leaders, soldiers, victims and so on.
Probably true, but around those places are also some of Ukraine’s best assets: arable lands, minerals, ports, Black sea. It will depend on how it ends and how deep is the new ‘line of separation’. The local Russians will insist on taking the maximum and Moscow will not be in a position to compromise. “Donbas+” side to the conflict has been underestimated, after the war they will be a major factor.
The assets in the West are only “frozen” so giving them out before a settlement is risky: Russia may insist on compensation in the future and given their economic heft (resources) Europe will not be in a position to refuse. The “assets” are not real – mostly “electronic accounts” in the West based on previous economic activity, not very tangible. For real assets like real estate etc… there are equivalent assets held by West in Russia estimated between \$300 billion to \$1 trillion (based on how you value them).
This is a mess. The system gradually put in place over generations have been thrown out – nothing means what it meant in January 2021. It is a true reset, so far only regional focused on Russia, Ukraine and Europe. But the resetting will inevitably spread. We are at the beginning. It will simply almost funny that so much is destroyed for so little at stake – a f…ing inability of the West to compromise on Nato and language autonomy. But it is too late for that now.
WEF Elites intentionally created war to generate refugee flows. They fed Zelensky unachievable dreams. Then, they leaked that ambition to Russia (via China) thus stoking the flames. SJW Davos is winning. Approximately ~1/3 of all refugees entering the EU via Ukraine are actually non-war, MENA origin.
The SJW Globalists drive their objective (maximizing refugee flows) by creating a slow grinding conflict where neither side can "WIN". Yet simultaneously, injecting enough false hope and other issues that neither side is willing to stop fighting.
The best outcome for Christian Europe is a Russia-Ukraine armistice. With the end of pressure on Kiev, Zelensky would be dragged down by his own base if he offered anything Russia could accept. It seems like this fight will grind on in the foreseeable future.
___
"The West" is a very problematic term. The SJW WEF hates Christian/Western traditional values. Look at the grief heaped on "Western" Poland, "Western" Hungary, and the very "Western" MAGA movement in America.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow
The past month's events have been an icy cold shower for anyone with personal or professional connections to Russia who hasn't been deliberately burying their hand in the sand.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
I happened to glance through this comment-thread, and noticed your statement. You generally seem like a level-headed individual with pretty good familiarity of that part of the world so I’m curious about your view. Based upon some of your other remarks, I assume it’s related to Russia’s supposed military failure.
I probably haven’t been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you’re correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I’m not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they’d win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I’ve listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor’s concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I’ve ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what’s really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.
Look up Muravsky Trail and Izyum Warpath.
These are the two routes of attack the Russians are using to defeat the Ukrainians. I think it was over day one, I agree they hoped to kidnap the Kiev leaders day one, but a methodical battle in Donbas to clear out the Ukrainians from that area is a fair enough exchange for Russia for the failure of that Coup de Main attempt.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/russians-are-about-ten-days-away-from-culminating-point-lt-gen-hodges
On March 14 he said the Russians are 10-14 days away from being out of ammo and manpower.
How long ago was that? Oops. That was more than a month ago.Replies: @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
Keeping pressure on Kiev in hopes that would lead to a Russia-Ukraine armistice seemed like a sound strategy to myself and many others. However, it foundered on a combination of issues, for example: Zelensky was more resistant to a deal than anticipated. And, logistics through Belarus were apparently much worse than predicted. I have to disagree a bit here. Morale is incredibly important in warfare. Ukrainian propaganda is doing a convincing job with "Forcing the Russians to Flee Kiev". Whether we believe it or not is irrelevant. The Ukrainian troops and lawmakers believe it. Withdrawing from Kiev has eliminated any chance for a near term armistice.
____
At this point the general consensus is that the conflict is headed to a "grind" scenario. Ukraine has few options to recapture land. And, any Russian advance against high morale Ukrainian defense is likely to be slow and casualty intensive.
Perhaps this too is wrong, but I have not heard any alternate credible scenarios.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mikhail
A man in a position to have a better knowledge than all these 3 about the real situation of the Russian forces in Ukraine is Igor Strelkov, the Russian commander of the Donbass separatists in 2014. He may have some grudges against those who replaced him with Zakharchenko but there's hardly anyone with a deeper desire to have Russia militarily defeat Ukraine. He also correctly predicted in 2014 that eventually Russia would face itself with a war against the West.
Here's a Google translation of why he thinks that Russia will also fail in the second phase if it doesn't quickly go for a full mobilization:
-----
So, let's briefly assess the operational situation:
1. On our part: after the "successful completion of the first stage of the operation" (which ended in a large-scale RETREAT from the territory of the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions) - there is a redeployment and concentration of forces in the Donetsk sector of the front. Apparently (and according to the statements of the political leadership of the Russian Federation), it is here that it is planned to carry out the "second stage" and solve the problem of completely clearing the territory of the LDNR from enemy groups.
Obviously, the calculation is being made on the creation of two or three strike groups sufficient in number, which - with the concentrated support of all aviation forces and most of the artillery - will "grind" the opposing Ukrainian forces (which are still estimated for some reason not highly) and defeat them in one big battle.
2. On the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the plans of the command of the RF Armed Forces are well known to the enemy, and he - the enemy - does not at all consider the defeat of his grouping inevitable. On the contrary, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to defend themselves on their heavily fortified positions, relying on previously and newly created (the command of the RF Armed Forces provided them with enough time) fortified nodes in the alleged directions of the strike of the Russian troops (and they are obvious - it’s enough to look at the map).
We ask ourselves the question: does the superiority of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and heavy weapons guarantee victory over an enemy (for whom offensive plans are obvious) prepared for defense, with high morale? My answer is NO, not guaranteed.
Why? - I answer:
The "superiority" of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and artillery is very relative. Since the enemy has a well-equipped and numerous military air defense, which seriously limits the actions of tactical aviation, which is capable of supporting its troops on the battlefield. The enemy has an ADVANTAGE in the means of field and artillery reconnaissance (unmanned aerial vehicles of various classes are already almost at the platoon level). And its artillery has good weapons and well-trained personnel. And against the numerous Russian armored vehicles - the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in defense conditions) are quite capable due to the really huge amount of anti-tank weapons in the hands of the infantry (ATGM).
In conditions when Russian troops will have to storm one urban agglomeration after another, the amount of manpower comes to the fore. But in it, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR, alas, do not have a serious advantage.
Suppose, having overcome the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Izyum and in the Gulyai-Pole area, our troops begin to advance in converging directions.
Can they quickly unite in the deep rear of the Ukrainian grouping, creating ("according to the classics") two encirclement rings (external and internal)? With a guarantee that the enemy will not immediately break through them and create their own "cauldrons" for the attackers? (The Germans did this repeatedly in 1942 with our troops).
I express doubt. Why? - I answer: because this requires a LOT of units and formations, designed not only to break through, but also to firmly secure the territory. As well as a large number of supply units. If the enemy had few forces, the protection of communications could be partially ignored. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine (thanks to mobilizations) already have enough forces - comparable to the number of our troops in the theater. In addition, the enemy has the ability to shorten the front line and transfer the released forces to threatened areas - the Russian Federation does not have complete air supremacy simply because of the insufficient number of strike aircraft and the negligible number of strike drones. At the same time, the main the enemy can hold the front line near Donetsk with relatively small forces due to the excellent engineering equipment that has been produced for many years,
In this regard, I assume that the general lack of forces will not allow the Russian command to carry out "deep coverage in the area of the Dnieper (Ekaterinoslav). - There simply will not be enough forces for this. Therefore, the offensive will be carried out "along the shortest directions" - from the north - to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (maximum - on Barvenkovo), from the south - on the Ugledar-Kurakhovo line. Both of these lines of operation inevitably lead our troops to "sticking" into heavily fortified and occupied by large, pre-prepared for defense garrisons continuous urban agglomerations. the enemy is completely left with roads along which he will be able to supply his troops.
Thus, after some time in these areas, the situation will repeat itself, which already exists in the areas of Rubizhnoye-Severodonetsk, Popasnaya, Avdeevka and Marinka, where the Allied forces are moving forward very slowly and with very heavy losses (especially in the infantry). Or they don't advance at all (Avdeevka).
The enemy is "more than completely" satisfied with this method of warfare. Why? - Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine need another one and a half to two (maximum - three) months to prepare large reserves - not in the form of constant replenishment to the active troops (they continuously do this, maintaining the number of units directly involved in the battles at a fairly high level), but in the form of new units and formations that can be deployed in other strategic directions, while Russian forces "bleed", storming the fortified cities of Donbass.
In the worst case scenario, we may repeat a situation similar to the one that developed for the Wehrmacht during Operation Citadel (Kursk Bulge). While the Germans, slowly gnawing through the defense in depth of the Soviet troops, were losing time and wasting their accumulated reserves, the Soviet command concentrated to the north (near Belgorod and Orel) a large grouping of its own troops, not involved in the battle. And when she went on the offensive, it “suddenly became clear” that Germany did not have the strength to simultaneously continue Operation Citadel and repel the counteroffensive of Soviet troops. I had to curtail the operation and return the battered troops to their original positions. And then, in general, more or less organized (which the Germans did not succeed in everywhere) - to roll back beyond the Dnieper.
In this regard, I remind you that the so-called. "Ukraine" is finishing the THIRD STAGE OF GENERAL MOBILIZATION. It has a human resource (200-300 thousand people) and technical capability (a huge flow of various weapons from Europe and the USA) to not only maintain a sufficient number of its troops at the front, but also create new reserves. And to create them "in quantity" (even 100 thousand people - this is about 50 battalion tactical groups, including reinforcements and rear infrastructure - that is, about 10 full-blooded divisions).
And we have? We are recruiting for various PMCs, recruiting contract soldiers in the military registration and enlistment offices and ... that's all ... LDNR (in terms of mobilization) "swept clean" - and those "who else can be caught", God forbid, will be able to replenish already incurred and future losses.
Suppose it is possible (at the expense of PMCs) to create another 10 (even 20, which is unlikely) various kinds of detachments and BTGs. What next? The losses incurred in the Donbass (during the assault on the next "fortresses" they will definitely be VERY HIGH) will also need to be compensated somehow.
In general, HOW will the Russian command be able to "fend off" the concentration of fresh formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, on the borders of the Kursk and Belgorod regions in a month or two? And if they go on the offensive, how will they be repelled? Consolidated police detachments, detachments of "Alco-Cossacks" (all real Cossacks are already at the front) or the regional militia? So it - the regional militia - has not even been created yet !!! Nobody stutters...
Or did our military "agree in advance" with the enemy that he (the enemy) would behave strictly within the framework of the plans of our glorified General Staff? At the "first stage of the NWO" - somehow this did not work out "from the word at all." With sensitive losses for participants. And I don’t think that at the “second stage” it will be somehow different - the military men are obviously not going to act as “whipping boys”.
Thus, summing up, I note:
Without carrying out at least partial mobilization in the Russian Federation - to carry out deep strategic offensive operations on the so-called. "Ukraine" is both impossible and extremely dangerous. We need to prepare for a long and difficult war, which will require all the human resources that are mediocrely squandered now for the sake of "a flag over the next city council" (how quickly you can "change flags" - Gostomel and Bucha will not let you lie).
And - yes - I would very much like to be mistaken in my forecasts for the operation that has begun ("second stage"). But the pomp with which the hedonists, who have already pissed themselves off many times (in all fields), through and through false talkers and mediocrity, "present" it - does not inspire additional optimism in me. NO CONCLUSIONS have been drawn from the failures of the first two months - strategically.
https://t.me/s/igorstrelkovReplies: @Patronym
Anyway. I wouldn't not characterise my view of 'military failure', certainly I think Russia will eventually reach its objectives, if not its maximal ones, and certainly not at the cost it had expected. I would say Russia initially entered Ukraine with relatively modest aims (decapitation of the current Ukrainian government, destruction of its military, elimination of any hopes of it ever joining NATO, etc.) but without claims to any insider knowledge whatsoever, I'm absolutely sure that Russia expected several orders of magnitude less of both the Ukrainian resistance and the vituperativeness of near-unanimous Western reaction, financial and diplomatic.
So for that reason, I think the Z-War (sorry, I can't think of it any other terms now) to be anywhere near worth its unforeseen costs, Russia would need to take significantly more than just the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts, which given the destruction they have or will soon suffer, are going to be net-negatives on Russia for a very long time.My concerns are more about economic and political challenges Russia will be facing. Russia is not nearly as autarkic as the USSR was, even accounting for its far smaller size. There has already a very large exodus of skilled people from the country since February, exacerbating an already existing problem. Because of the post-Soviet collapse of the education system during the 90s (it has not been fixed), there's long been a shortage of skilled Russian labour generally.As for individuals like Saker, Karlin, Andrei Martyanov, Shamir, Dmitri Orlov, and other Russians writing primarily for an English audience, yes, its very true that made much more triumphalist claims than the Russian government made to their domestic audience.
But you could also still see how the biggest official 'court' media personalities like Solovyev were full of bluster about Ukraine instantly collapsing the same way Georgia did in 2007, turning to mild unease, to despair and finally anger, over a few weeks. Again, looking at Russian media aimed at a Russian audience, from Strelkov/Gurkhin to Yuri Podolyaka to Nikolai Starikov to blogger 'Colonel Cassad', they are not painting a rosy picture. Most of them are still confident Russia will win in Ukraine and even long-term with the West, but the mood is much more grim determination than 'we're tired of winning!' rhetoric.
An intelligent ex-commenter to this website who grew up in the USSR, 'Glossy' who I occasionally interact with elsewhere, is also quite pessimistic. 'utu' has also made some points, though he's obviously an extreme partisan, I don't think he's stupid or dishonest. Well, I listened to Ritter (I haven't heard of the others), and as I said, he was much more moderate in his claims than expected, nor was he the Kremlin-shill I expected him to be. His closing comments that the American administration would alter its approach to Ukrainian problems in a less 'zero-sum' manner, with voices of people like William Burns replacing those of Victoria Nuland were hopeful, but I'm not sure if America is ready to return to a pre-Clinton worldview. But you obviously know far more of the American side of things.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Dmitry
Remember the biolab controversy a few weeks ago? I stumbled upon this:
U.S. Covered Up Attempts by Japan to Construct Ethnic-Racial Bioweapons
Interestingly enough, there was a congressional hearing on this topic in the mid-1980s, where the theory was dismissed as a conspiracy. Much later, it was publicly acknowledged, published by the US government-funded Naval Institute Press no less, rather than some fringe conspiracy site.
There are also rumors that Israel has done research in this area.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
You are a good analyst of the situation.
Interestingly the VDV did a parachute drop on the Dneiper just south of Kiev, in ww2 and the Landing Zone was right on top of an SS Division. Naturally, they were butchered. It’s not uncommon for parachutist or airborne units to get butchered. It’s the job description and why they are considered elite formations in the armies of the world. Aggressive, risk takers, accept 100% casualties.
If you’re Pepe Escobar, you’re having a really bad week. First, you get booted off Twitter. Second, your theory of “the anti-West coalition” keeps getting disproven, badly. After Huawei cut back ties with Russia now it’s time for Indian marquee firms.
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/indias-tata-steel-to-stop-doing-business-with-russia-7879141/
At this point, I'm concerned for his mental health.
Are these "anti-Western coalition" copers finally coming to terms with the fact that while China and India will not engage in primary sanctions, that courtesy does not always extend to secondary sanctions.
A British judge has approved the extradition of Julian Assange to the US, where he will be locked away forever in a “maximum security prison” for the crime of exposing US barbarism in war. Something which used to be valued but no longer is.
Don’t expect any opposition from the lickspittles and snitches that make up the Western “free press”. The West has no moral standing to criticise any regime.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Ron,
Look up Muravsky Trail and Izyum Warpath.
These are the two routes of attack the Russians are using to defeat the Ukrainians. I think it was over day one, I agree they hoped to kidnap the Kiev leaders day one, but a methodical battle in Donbas to clear out the Ukrainians from that area is a fair enough exchange for Russia for the failure of that Coup de Main attempt.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Neither did I.
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/indias-tata-steel-to-stop-doing-business-with-russia-7879141/Replies: @sudden death, @Thulean Friend
Not to worry at all, they will just explain it was nothing but private initiative from colonial mindset billionaires and Xi/Modi will soon discipline them harshly 😉
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Some of those retired military people seem to live in fantasy land:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/russians-are-about-ten-days-away-from-culminating-point-lt-gen-hodges
On March 14 he said the Russians are 10-14 days away from being out of ammo and manpower.
How long ago was that? Oops. That was more than a month ago.
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/
Meanwhile, here's an interview with former CIA officer Larry Johnson on RT. His views are exactly the same as those of Ritter and Macgregor, and personally, he comes across as very credible to me:
https://sonar21.com/rt-interviews-larry-johnson/
Basically, he's claiming that Russia is fighting a physical war and Ukraine/NATO is mostly fighting a propaganda war.
You are far too optimistic.
WEF Elites intentionally created war to generate refugee flows. They fed Zelensky unachievable dreams. Then, they leaked that ambition to Russia (via China) thus stoking the flames. SJW Davos is winning. Approximately ~1/3 of all refugees entering the EU via Ukraine are actually non-war, MENA origin.
The SJW Globalists drive their objective (maximizing refugee flows) by creating a slow grinding conflict where neither side can “WIN”. Yet simultaneously, injecting enough false hope and other issues that neither side is willing to stop fighting.
The best outcome for Christian Europe is a Russia-Ukraine armistice. With the end of pressure on Kiev, Zelensky would be dragged down by his own base if he offered anything Russia could accept. It seems like this fight will grind on in the foreseeable future.
___
“The West” is a very problematic term. The SJW WEF hates Christian/Western traditional values. Look at the grief heaped on “Western” Poland, “Western” Hungary, and the very “Western” MAGA movement in America.
PEACE 😇
Re: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-russia-ukraine-should-work-out-some-kind-agreement-1698780
Excerpt - Alex Christoforou discusses Trump's above comment and some other related matters:
https://theduran.com/lavrov-interview-eu-embargo-on-russian-oil-msnbc-pundit-in-lviv-to-fight-update-1/
Prior to Russia's recognition of Donbass independence (done just before its military action), Russia would've accepted:
– implementation of the Minsk Protocol (the UN approved Donbass autonomy process stonewalled by the Kiev regime since its signing seven years ago)
– no NATO in Ukraine, or Ukraine in NATO (in line with something Russia has reasonably sought since the Soviet breskup)
– agree to disagree on Crimea (numerous examples of nations at peace despite differences of opinion on borders).
With the related Clausewitz quote in mind, Russia advocated and waited long enough, as the Kiev regime became militarily stronger, plus the Banderite element. Shortly after the Russian military action, this is a reasonably revised settlement that I proposed, which has since changed, as a result of the military facts on the ground and other realities:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/11032022-what-russia-desires-oped/
Excerpt - As I noted on April 4 in this abridged excerpt:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/04042022-handicapping-ukraine-and-russia-west-differences-oped/ So there's no misunderstanding, I've consistently opposed banning athletes and artists from nations engaged in wars involving civilian casualties.
If we get lucky, they will just do endless Laxa like-nonsense "but we won, look Lviv is free!!!!, and iPhone 23 won't be available in Russia !!!!". If that doesn't work we may have a meeting of Satans, the real one and its namesake. This is spinning out of control.
If Trump stayed in the White House and Merkel was still around this wouldn't be happening. There was an obvious easy deal available, but the new rulers don't want it. We may perish because of voting-by-mail mania that overtook US at the worst time.Replies: @Johnny Rico
https://www.foxnews.com/media/russians-are-about-ten-days-away-from-culminating-point-lt-gen-hodges
On March 14 he said the Russians are 10-14 days away from being out of ammo and manpower.
How long ago was that? Oops. That was more than a month ago.Replies: @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
Hodges caters to svidos.
Well, let’s try and imagine a scenario in which prayer might have an effect – it depends on what you understand prayer to be.
Let’s say in a conflict between two people’s, God already decided in favor of one side, or hasn’t come to a decision – however, if prayer is understood as aligning oneself with the Divine (aligning oneself with the “Cosmos”), then would it not make sense that this would generate some lev of “favor”, so to speak, from the Cosmos (God)?
In other words, according to an ancient theory an individual or a nation may be slated for destruction, conquest, or suffering because he or it has gone against the basic rules of the Cosmos in a fundamental way over a prolonged period of time.
So a “realignment” with the Divine and a renewed commitment to align ones behavior with the Cosmos might well make a difference in this “judgement”!
Obviously, as you and Silvio say, the Russians are praying too – so maybe, the relevant factors are the “inherent” level of alignment Russian actions display and the “quality” of their commitment to realign with the basic rules of the Cosmos, versus the same factors on the other side – and most likely, many other factors known only to God.
For my part, the idea that one thrives and flourishes to the extent one aligns oneself with the basic nature and direction of the Cosmos (God, Nature, the Tao) seems increasingly a very compelling theory, and highly useful in diagnosing the modern malaise.
Although I realize you at present deny there is any distinctly modern malaise, and fair enough 🙂
The language I am using is necessarily somewhat metaphoric as ultimate reality is ungraspeable – but the underlying idea is if one cuts oneself off from the Source of Life, one fails to thrive.
Now, I don’t know how this would all play out on any specific conflict, but if prayer is understood as a renewed commitment to align oneself with the Cosmos then it seems to me as always useful and worthwhile, and to always have some chance of helping oneself.
Depending on circumstances, prayer may not prevent an individual from dying or a nation being destroyed, but I would hazard the guess that it always creates a more favorable outcome to the extent that it is a genuine renewed commitment to align oneself with the Ground of Being, the Source of Life.
Sometimes, the best thing for our spiritual growth and thus ultimate well-being is precisely to die – provided one believes one somehow endures after death and perhaps even reincarnates 🙂
Now, these are just preliminary speculations and “essais” on my part! Prayer is one of those “old” ideas I want to start looking into. I’ve become quite interested in it lately.
All cultures used to do it, even the most sophisticated and intelligent.
Plus, I no longer have your “innocent” faith in logic, as you know 🙂
Well, I don’t have much more to say at the present moment, because I’m at the very beginning of looking into prayer. We shall see!
I would only add that there appears to be evidence that praying for the sick helps heal them, even if the sick don’t know you’re praying for them.
Rather, it is a "renewed commitment" to live by those very principles, to align oneself with those very "laws", in the deepest way.
Since prayer is an act of humility in that it acknowledges a reality larger than ones "self" that one now accepts one must "cooperate" with,
prayer has a significant impact on future conduct if it is sincere.
From this vantage point prayer does not look like asking for a "favor", but rather as a realignment of the "entire man" towards the Source of Life, which leads to physical and spiritual flourishing.
Of course, one may pray very fervently for the success of an action that violated Cosmic laws, as I suspect the Russians are now doing, and I am sure that is a factor that has an impact.
That being said, the Divine may well use a "wicked" nation to chastise a wayward nation - i.e, create conditions for it's spiritual growth and it's ultimate well being. So short term success is ambivalent.
Anyways, I am just exploring these ideas at present, and they are very new to me.
As part of my emergence from the "straitjacket" of a dead-end materialism, I am beginning to "exhume" all these fine old ideas that we have so rashly consigned to their graves, and consider them anew, one by one.
I suspect there is much gold to be found in those old graves waiting to be discovered for a determined treasure hunter :)Replies: @Mr. Hack
WEF Elites intentionally created war to generate refugee flows. They fed Zelensky unachievable dreams. Then, they leaked that ambition to Russia (via China) thus stoking the flames. SJW Davos is winning. Approximately ~1/3 of all refugees entering the EU via Ukraine are actually non-war, MENA origin.
The SJW Globalists drive their objective (maximizing refugee flows) by creating a slow grinding conflict where neither side can "WIN". Yet simultaneously, injecting enough false hope and other issues that neither side is willing to stop fighting.
The best outcome for Christian Europe is a Russia-Ukraine armistice. With the end of pressure on Kiev, Zelensky would be dragged down by his own base if he offered anything Russia could accept. It seems like this fight will grind on in the foreseeable future.
___
"The West" is a very problematic term. The SJW WEF hates Christian/Western traditional values. Look at the grief heaped on "Western" Poland, "Western" Hungary, and the very "Western" MAGA movement in America.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow
Trump on Russia Ukraine
Re: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-russia-ukraine-should-work-out-some-kind-agreement-1698780
Excerpt –
Alex Christoforou discusses Trump’s above comment and some other related matters:
https://theduran.com/lavrov-interview-eu-embargo-on-russian-oil-msnbc-pundit-in-lviv-to-fight-update-1/
Prior to Russia’s recognition of Donbass independence (done just before its military action), Russia would’ve accepted:
– implementation of the Minsk Protocol (the UN approved Donbass autonomy process stonewalled by the Kiev regime since its signing seven years ago)
– no NATO in Ukraine, or Ukraine in NATO (in line with something Russia has reasonably sought since the Soviet breskup)
– agree to disagree on Crimea (numerous examples of nations at peace despite differences of opinion on borders).
With the related Clausewitz quote in mind, Russia advocated and waited long enough, as the Kiev regime became militarily stronger, plus the Banderite element. Shortly after the Russian military action, this is a reasonably revised settlement that I proposed, which has since changed, as a result of the military facts on the ground and other realities:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/11032022-what-russia-desires-oped/
Excerpt –
As I noted on April 4 in this abridged excerpt:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/04042022-handicapping-ukraine-and-russia-west-differences-oped/
So there’s no misunderstanding, I’ve consistently opposed banning athletes and artists from nations engaged in wars involving civilian casualties.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Macgregor came across as much more convincing that Ritter. However, military predictions are much like weather forecasts. Analysis is based on based on history, available knowledge, and an estimation of the behaviour of the other side’s leaders. It is always an estimate, and never a certainty.
Keeping pressure on Kiev in hopes that would lead to a Russia-Ukraine armistice seemed like a sound strategy to myself and many others. However, it foundered on a combination of issues, for example: Zelensky was more resistant to a deal than anticipated. And, logistics through Belarus were apparently much worse than predicted.
I have to disagree a bit here. Morale is incredibly important in warfare. Ukrainian propaganda is doing a convincing job with “Forcing the Russians to Flee Kiev”. Whether we believe it or not is irrelevant. The Ukrainian troops and lawmakers believe it. Withdrawing from Kiev has eliminated any chance for a near term armistice.
____
At this point the general consensus is that the conflict is headed to a “grind” scenario. Ukraine has few options to recapture land. And, any Russian advance against high morale Ukrainian defense is likely to be slow and casualty intensive.
Perhaps this too is wrong, but I have not heard any alternate credible scenarios.
PEACE 😇
Macgregor and Ritter reasonably agree that the Russian troop numbers outside Kiev weren't
enough to overtake that city - something Russia knew beforehand.
They were there partly as a diversion, making it more difficult for the Kiev regime to be focused in Donbass. Perhaps there was also the hope that the Kiev regime might crumble.Replies: @A123
Keeping pressure on Kiev in hopes that would lead to a Russia-Ukraine armistice seemed like a sound strategy to myself and many others. However, it foundered on a combination of issues, for example: Zelensky was more resistant to a deal than anticipated. And, logistics through Belarus were apparently much worse than predicted. I have to disagree a bit here. Morale is incredibly important in warfare. Ukrainian propaganda is doing a convincing job with "Forcing the Russians to Flee Kiev". Whether we believe it or not is irrelevant. The Ukrainian troops and lawmakers believe it. Withdrawing from Kiev has eliminated any chance for a near term armistice.
____
At this point the general consensus is that the conflict is headed to a "grind" scenario. Ukraine has few options to recapture land. And, any Russian advance against high morale Ukrainian defense is likely to be slow and casualty intensive.
Perhaps this too is wrong, but I have not heard any alternate credible scenarios.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mikhail
Arguably a strategic withdrawal done as a good faith gesture as part of seeing progress in the negotiations. Instead, came the Kiev regime bravado.
Macgregor and Ritter reasonably agree that the Russian troop numbers outside Kiev weren’t
enough to overtake that city – something Russia knew beforehand.
They were there partly as a diversion, making it more difficult for the Kiev regime to be focused in Donbass. Perhaps there was also the hope that the Kiev regime might crumble.
I would add a third. The encirclement of Kiev combined with a partial blockade (train and heavy truck) would degrade "quality of life" in the city without irrevocably breaking infrastructure. Regaining Kiev more or less intact versus the implicit threat of mass artillery barrages sounded convincing as a bargain Zelensky might have accepted. After all, Russian military tactics are known to be "tube heavy".
Zelensky did not take the opportunity. Perhaps his advisors detected the problem with RF logistics via Belarus and concluded that the Russians could not bring enough force forward to deliver "shock & awe" on Kiev. If not, Zelensky took a huge gamble.
Regardless of why RF pulled back, they now have nothing to offer Zelensky as a high value trade. That is combined with boosted Ukrainian morale. Zelensky has little incentive to negotiate at this point, and trying to do so could get him lynched by his own side.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
Nice to hear all this, but still would exchange it into in complete total silence in a heartbeat if German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her Greens would just announce instead they’re prolonging nuclear stations operation for a ten more years at least 😉
https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2523142
Or, if you prefer the more compact De Niro version -- Fuggedaboutit!
PEACE 😇
In other words, prayer is not a mere “technology” to affect fate, or a mere “begging” from a King to favor oneself over another side, without considerations of fairness or moral principle.
Rather, it is a “renewed commitment” to live by those very principles, to align oneself with those very “laws”, in the deepest way.
Since prayer is an act of humility in that it acknowledges a reality larger than ones “self” that one now accepts one must “cooperate” with,
prayer has a significant impact on future conduct if it is sincere.
From this vantage point prayer does not look like asking for a “favor”, but rather as a realignment of the “entire man” towards the Source of Life, which leads to physical and spiritual flourishing.
Of course, one may pray very fervently for the success of an action that violated Cosmic laws, as I suspect the Russians are now doing, and I am sure that is a factor that has an impact.
That being said, the Divine may well use a “wicked” nation to chastise a wayward nation – i.e, create conditions for it’s spiritual growth and it’s ultimate well being. So short term success is ambivalent.
Anyways, I am just exploring these ideas at present, and they are very new to me.
As part of my emergence from the “straitjacket” of a dead-end materialism, I am beginning to “exhume” all these fine old ideas that we have so rashly consigned to their graves, and consider them anew, one by one.
I suspect there is much gold to be found in those old graves waiting to be discovered for a determined treasure hunter 🙂
https://youtu.be/IydNadM1GUEReplies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
Macgregor and Ritter reasonably agree that the Russian troop numbers outside Kiev weren't
enough to overtake that city - something Russia knew beforehand.
They were there partly as a diversion, making it more difficult for the Kiev regime to be focused in Donbass. Perhaps there was also the hope that the Kiev regime might crumble.Replies: @A123
The two suggestions you make are valid.
I would add a third. The encirclement of Kiev combined with a partial blockade (train and heavy truck) would degrade “quality of life” in the city without irrevocably breaking infrastructure. Regaining Kiev more or less intact versus the implicit threat of mass artillery barrages sounded convincing as a bargain Zelensky might have accepted. After all, Russian military tactics are known to be “tube heavy”.
Zelensky did not take the opportunity. Perhaps his advisors detected the problem with RF logistics via Belarus and concluded that the Russians could not bring enough force forward to deliver “shock & awe” on Kiev. If not, Zelensky took a huge gamble.
Regardless of why RF pulled back, they now have nothing to offer Zelensky as a high value trade. That is combined with boosted Ukrainian morale. Zelensky has little incentive to negotiate at this point, and trying to do so could get him lynched by his own side.
PEACE 😇
Their job is to strike deep into the enemy's rear and generally fuck things up badly.
That is what the strikes around Kiev were about. And they managed to withdraw with limited casualties.
Слава России
Also, see this video on the VDV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su2OfiqGgRkReplies: @A123
I believe @German_Reader already addressed this hypothetical. To paraphrase — Winning the “War Against Nuclear” is foundational to the Green Party. It can never be weakened in any way for any reason by anyone.
Or, if you prefer the more compact De Niro version — Fuggedaboutit!
PEACE 😇
At drug stores in SF, almost everything is under lock and key, except sunblock.
WEF Elites intentionally created war to generate refugee flows. They fed Zelensky unachievable dreams. Then, they leaked that ambition to Russia (via China) thus stoking the flames. SJW Davos is winning. Approximately ~1/3 of all refugees entering the EU via Ukraine are actually non-war, MENA origin.
The SJW Globalists drive their objective (maximizing refugee flows) by creating a slow grinding conflict where neither side can "WIN". Yet simultaneously, injecting enough false hope and other issues that neither side is willing to stop fighting.
The best outcome for Christian Europe is a Russia-Ukraine armistice. With the end of pressure on Kiev, Zelensky would be dragged down by his own base if he offered anything Russia could accept. It seems like this fight will grind on in the foreseeable future.
___
"The West" is a very problematic term. The SJW WEF hates Christian/Western traditional values. Look at the grief heaped on "Western" Poland, "Western" Hungary, and the very "Western" MAGA movement in America.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow
I am afraid you might be right, but what’s the alternative? Russia just fired “Satan II” ICBM missile. They will win the war and that is something the current rulers in the West simply cannot allow.
If we get lucky, they will just do endless Laxa like-nonsense “but we won, look Lviv is free!!!!, and iPhone 23 won’t be available in Russia !!!!“. If that doesn’t work we may have a meeting of Satans, the real one and its namesake. This is spinning out of control.
If Trump stayed in the White House and Merkel was still around this wouldn’t be happening. There was an obvious easy deal available, but the new rulers don’t want it. We may perish because of voting-by-mail mania that overtook US at the worst time.
Thanks. It can indeed be useful to have a good grasp of the various belief systems held by the peoples of the world to better understand the global situation.
People generally seem to have a consciousness of right and wrong, truth and lie. However, all too often when a chance for ill gotten gain (from someone else) comes along they will ‘short circuit’ this consciousness with a tall tale they tell themselves, ie that they are somehow ‘helping’ this individual or people which they are in truth robbing and plundering, what I call ‘civilizing the barbarians’.
As an example, I doubt Vercingetorix and his Gauls saw it as help or ‘civilizing’ when he, as their leader, was ritually strangled in a Roman dungeon and many thousands of the defeated Gauls were taken to Rome as slaves when their revolt failed. The Gallic Wars, from whence their revolt sprang, in reality likely had much more to do with Julius Caesar satisfying his personal political ambitions in Rome via a victoriously fought war, not to mention the rich gold mines the Gauls reportedly held, than anything else.
But, people have to live with themselves and their conscious, and hence the tall tales.
This unfortunate human tendency can be compounded with certain belief systems. In the case of the US and UK, as well as Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, historically some powerful members of the Anglo-Saxon establishment and their hangers on have held the absurd belief that they were of the ‘lost tribes of Israel’. This was called ‘Anglo-American Israelism’, aka ‘British Israelism’. [This unhealthy situation is compounded even further with the long dysfunctional relationship that has existed between the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples, the latter actually really being Jewish, much unlike those Anglo-Saxons who believe in the idea of British Israelism.]
Below is an excerpt from an outstanding (albeit lengthy) article on this subject, entitled
Imperial British-Israelism: Justification for an Empire. Well worth the time to read in full for it’s insights.
‘…many British-Israelites viewed the Second World War as just a precursor to a war with the Soviet Union which would usher in the Second Coming of Christ and the Millennium.’
http://revneal.org/Writings/Writings/british.htm
What I am hearing with these “refugee” stories is that some significant number of “black Ukrainians” were permanent legal residents of Ukraine, for years. That they brought their African spouses and had many children there.
What were they doing there? Ukraine’s per capita is shit.
Either the standard logic that poor European countries can’t attract “enrichment” is dead wrong, or there has been some well-heeled conspiracy to help get them there, or all that counts is political alignment.
Rather, it is a "renewed commitment" to live by those very principles, to align oneself with those very "laws", in the deepest way.
Since prayer is an act of humility in that it acknowledges a reality larger than ones "self" that one now accepts one must "cooperate" with,
prayer has a significant impact on future conduct if it is sincere.
From this vantage point prayer does not look like asking for a "favor", but rather as a realignment of the "entire man" towards the Source of Life, which leads to physical and spiritual flourishing.
Of course, one may pray very fervently for the success of an action that violated Cosmic laws, as I suspect the Russians are now doing, and I am sure that is a factor that has an impact.
That being said, the Divine may well use a "wicked" nation to chastise a wayward nation - i.e, create conditions for it's spiritual growth and it's ultimate well being. So short term success is ambivalent.
Anyways, I am just exploring these ideas at present, and they are very new to me.
As part of my emergence from the "straitjacket" of a dead-end materialism, I am beginning to "exhume" all these fine old ideas that we have so rashly consigned to their graves, and consider them anew, one by one.
I suspect there is much gold to be found in those old graves waiting to be discovered for a determined treasure hunter :)Replies: @Mr. Hack
I wanted to get an update on how the anthropologist who converted to Orthodoxy had been doing lately, forgot his name (again) , didn’t want to bother you again, so I googled in “AaronB anthropologist who converted to Orthodoxy” and somehow I managed to end up viewing this YouTube video about a Jewish man who said a prayer before going to sleep and ended up feeling much like how you recently did. What do you think? 🙂
In the end, everything has to be "empirical". You can come up with all the fine theories you want and use the best logic you can come up with, but experience is experience, reality is reality.
I think you were thinking of the "environmental activist" who converted to Orthodoxy - he is Paul Kingsnorth, still going strong on substack and writing great stuff.
It's funny, I recently saw a talk he gave that's well worth watching. Kingsnorth is this very refined and slender man who comes off as one of those diffident, soft spoken English intellectuals, as you'd expect from a previously liberal English environmental activist.
That's certainly how he used to sound in past interviews I've heard from him. But in this new most recent interview he suddenly sounds strong and centred, firmly rooted and exuding conviction and I dare I say it, even passion :)
Religion is clearly doing him good. And interestingly, his "brand" of Christianity is the ascetic, monkish, Sermon on the Mount type that emphasizes "perfection in weakness", etc. (I think this is the only true Christianity, but many moderns disagree with me).
Modern secular people do not - cannot - understand that the true source of inner strength isn't trying to be strong in the Darwinian sense, competitive and powerful and dominating etc. That's actually brittle and weak - people who think this way actually over time lose inner conviction and a sense of moral justification. (As we see in the West).
Rather, one becomes strong by surrendering the petty "self" and one aligns with the Cosmos in this way, which involves losing self-assertion, the desire to dominate, and the need to be powerful. One then gains a sense of inner "rightness" and the whole universe flows through you. This is "love" rather than competition - it is a great power, but we have forgotten this.
The modern Darwinian West will of course eventually relearn this lesson.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/04/20/ukraine-negotiation-kabuki/
Ukraine may be retreating from Salient in Donets river/Donbass now. Risk of encirclement to great now that Lyman is under attack. Headlong rush out of the trenches and bunkers in Sverodonetsk. Will the Russians bomb the shit out of the retreating units or let them fuck off to Dniepro?
https://youtu.be/IydNadM1GUEReplies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
just a rumor but there’s a Ukrainian retreat from the Sverodonetsk salient. The Russian attack was probing into Lyman and the units threatened with encirclement are breaking. Just a rumor.
Credible reports that Lyman is being attacked by Russian forces driving south. With that Ukraine commanders and units defending the extreme eastern point of the salient are apparently in retreat. If the Russians catch them in the open the exhausted units who’ve been stuck defending Sverodonetsk for 50 days in a drumfire of artillery and skirmishes will be caught in the open. They will try to race back to Kramatorsk but will be vulnerable to cluster bombs and artillery interdiction during the entire ordeal.
Current curious sightings around the AfroRussian world 😉
https://addisstandard.com/newsalert-russian-embassy-in-addis-abeba-tells-ethiopians-it-doesnt-accept-applications-for-recruitment-in-the-armed-forces/
https://youtu.be/IydNadM1GUEReplies: @Wokechoke, @AaronB
Thanks for that, it was a very interesting story with similarities to my recent experience 🙂
In the end, everything has to be “empirical”. You can come up with all the fine theories you want and use the best logic you can come up with, but experience is experience, reality is reality.
I think you were thinking of the “environmental activist” who converted to Orthodoxy – he is Paul Kingsnorth, still going strong on substack and writing great stuff.
It’s funny, I recently saw a talk he gave that’s well worth watching. Kingsnorth is this very refined and slender man who comes off as one of those diffident, soft spoken English intellectuals, as you’d expect from a previously liberal English environmental activist.
That’s certainly how he used to sound in past interviews I’ve heard from him. But in this new most recent interview he suddenly sounds strong and centred, firmly rooted and exuding conviction and I dare I say it, even passion 🙂
Religion is clearly doing him good. And interestingly, his “brand” of Christianity is the ascetic, monkish, Sermon on the Mount type that emphasizes “perfection in weakness”, etc. (I think this is the only true Christianity, but many moderns disagree with me).
Modern secular people do not – cannot – understand that the true source of inner strength isn’t trying to be strong in the Darwinian sense, competitive and powerful and dominating etc. That’s actually brittle and weak – people who think this way actually over time lose inner conviction and a sense of moral justification. (As we see in the West).
Rather, one becomes strong by surrendering the petty “self” and one aligns with the Cosmos in this way, which involves losing self-assertion, the desire to dominate, and the need to be powerful. One then gains a sense of inner “rightness” and the whole universe flows through you. This is “love” rather than competition – it is a great power, but we have forgotten this.
The modern Darwinian West will of course eventually relearn this lesson.
If we get lucky, they will just do endless Laxa like-nonsense "but we won, look Lviv is free!!!!, and iPhone 23 won't be available in Russia !!!!". If that doesn't work we may have a meeting of Satans, the real one and its namesake. This is spinning out of control.
If Trump stayed in the White House and Merkel was still around this wouldn't be happening. There was an obvious easy deal available, but the new rulers don't want it. We may perish because of voting-by-mail mania that overtook US at the worst time.Replies: @Johnny Rico
When will they win the war? I’ll give you credit if you come within a year of the official date.
Long queue of young ethiopian males allegedly in name of solidarity:
-- Are not inducted into the RF military
-- Are handed 10,000 loyalty Rubles in cash (~120 USD equivalent)
If true, it is not a bad play on Putin's part. There is a huge amount of non-bank, African economic value held in physical currency. Push enough Ruble denominated bills into circulation and there is also psychological impact.
PEACE 😇
Or, those civilians are people who want to avoid the fate of civilians in Bucha or other regions taken over by Russia, and are being like the civilians in Tolkien’s Helms Deep.
Problem with this kind of argument is that it relies wholly on your claims to reliable insight and understanding of what the intentions of ‘ordinary religious people’ are when they pray. I’ve got the impression from past posts that you have a negative and probably cynical view of Christianity and generally I am doubtful about 3rd party claims to knowledge of the ‘real’ intentions and motivations behind the prayer of others, so I don’t attach much strength to it.
Likewise the part about God being mysteriously silent, to you maybe God is, to others God isn’t.
What I wrote was based on the content of formal prayers (including really basic ones like the ‘Our Father’), liturgy, and content that is all over the both the Bible and Catholic and Orthodox theology. I can take a guess about what the Christian content of the prayer service might have been, because they usually follow similar lines. Prayer for peace, that the decision makers will seek to do what God wills, that if war happens it should be fought for just reasons and with proportionality, that God be merciful on the leaders, soldiers, victims and so on.
Permitting ''Pride parades'' like the huge one in Ukraine in 2021 is ''mocking God''.Replies: @AP
7,000 parade participants in a city of 5 million (including suburbs) is not “huge” turnout.
Based on their official goals – Nato out of Ukraine and security for Donbas – they will win in the next 3 months.
If you add an effective control of the Black See coast, then another 2-3 months.
If you hallucinate that the goal is to occupy Kiev or Warsaw, you can claim that they will lose. For West this is about PR and not losing face, not about facts on the ground, so they will claim inflated goals to say that they haven’t been reached. If you play that game, most “victories” can be dismissed. There is always “more” that could be done.
No, I wouldn’t say that. There definitely are plenty of modern social malaises like wokeness, cancel culture and, closely related to both, censorship of voices and ideas. During Cold War I authorities treated us as adults capable of judgement and allowed us to read information coming from the Eastern Block or anywhere else. Unlike now, that was in fact how we distinguished ourselves from the “non-free world”.
What I tried to say earlier in the thread is that comparing our current mental health with that of previous eras is a tricky matter. There are too many confounding factors. Were people in New England or in France during the witch hunts more mentally balanced on average than ourselves?
This is a bit like asking if there are more homosexuals now than in the past. It may look like it but I’m not very sure. I know for a fact how some homosexual men in my home town confronted their condition when it was strongly stigmatized: they became priests. And I can’t blame them, tbh. If society expected me to marry another man and have a lifetime of sex with him I would also escape that fate with whatever means at my reach!
As for the value of prayer, I’m not sure I’m in the mood for attacking anyone’s religious beliefs. I think that there are very different kinds of prayers. There’s praying to get some divine help for your material concerns, praying to thank God for what you have, praying for purely spiritual reasons, praying to redeem your sins at the direction of a confessor, etc. I’d say that if praying has some therapeutic or relaxing effect for someone, let them go for it. Those of us with a more rationalist outlook to life can’t help noticing the paradoxes brilliantly exposed by Silviosilver.
OT: Speaking of prayers, I have lately been invited to attend two Mormon religious ceremonies. I am always grateful when that happens. It signals that my overwhelmingly Mormon neighbors accept my presence among them and it also lets me enjoy a glimpse of their rich ritual life. Their masses, always full of children doing typical children stuff on the benches that they accept with naturalness, are a big contrast to the much more solemn Catholic masses I grew up used to.
But I think I may have found one key to the so-called Mormon “cuckery” exemplified by Mitt Romney or the current Utah governor Cox, who recently vetoed a State Senate law forbidding trans “women” to take part in female sports. Mormon men often cry on the pulpit in front of their wards when speaking about their personal challenges in life. This seems to be a common practice and perhaps explains why I’ve seem a couple of Mormon men crying when talking to me about non-religious issues. Current Mormonism, which is very different from the original one, seems to promote a softening of the masculine temperament.
At this point, I have no "settled" religious views except that I increasingly do see myself as in some sense religious - I have this feeling that I want to explore old ideas that have been consigned to the dustbin, and expand my range beyond what modern "common sense" says is permissible.
Your point that there is no hard dividing line between modern times and previous times in terms of dysfunction and mental illness is a good one and even, I'd say, important to emphasize.
We would be foolish to think we can heal ourselves by merely rolling back modernity - this is seductively simplistic, and wrong not just because tradition itself often got corrupted and needed to be reformed, but because the sickness appears at the dawn of history.
One only has to read the early Christians, or the Buddhists or Taoists, to realize man has been sick for a long time - even though today we talk of "sin", that is a corruption of the initial idea of most spiritual traditions, which see wrong behavior and belief as a "sickness", and spiritual practice as the "cure". I believe the early Church referred to itself as a "hospital".
I would say what distinguishes modernity is that all those factors that have made mankind "sick" since recorded history became especially intensified in modern times - reached their apogee - and all possible "exits" became closed as rationalism dominated.
I realize however this is not necessarily your view!
Very interesting insight into Mormons.
I am curious as to how they "contextualize" their own weeping - even highly masculine cultures often permit displays of weakness and emotion in certain areas, generally relating to extreme grief and death of loved ones.
Of course, a culture that encourages weeping over mere ordinary hardship, pain, and tribulation, as ours does, has certainly grown pathological and lost the crucial sense of the "larger picture"!
Certainly our culture has become pathologically feminine - but a culture that is too stoic and rigid and unemotional similarly becomes brittle and sterile, and ultimately weak.
But from your description, it does indeed sound like modern Mormonism is quite corrupted by the surrounding culture - entirely as one would expect, I think.
"Institutional" culture these days of any sort seems easily corrupted because of the money and politics factor.
To truly practice an alternative ethics one would have to - at least to some extent - genuinely surrender wealth and power. And no "institution" willingly does that.
The trick is going to be how we shut the fucking mouths of “I’m for the current thing” left.
Every time the right gives these retards the benefit of the doubt or let themselves get shouted down.
-- SJW/DNC Globalism unifies the MIC, Multiculturalists, and NeoConDemocrats. All of the pro-conflict power groups are united in the Democrat War PartyThe change is still a work in progress. Romney, Cheney, and Murkowski, are clearly Globalists who are in the wrong party as Republican officials.
_____If you do not believe me ask, "What is the MAGA/GOP doing about SJW Globalism?"I am glad you asked. The answer is, "MAGA/GOP is going to revoke $200MM/yr in tax benefits to Groomer Disney MegaCorporation" (1) As an aside, even with no Government action, Netflix is experiencing a U.S. citizen led "Go woke, Go Broke" backlash. (2)The pendulum swung toward crazy for over a generation. Now it is headed back towards sanity in a sweep that could last 50+ years. Our Posterity now has a fighting chance at a better life than we had. What more could any parent want?PEACE 😇
__________(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/19/desantis-announces-special-legislative-session-will-debate-removal-of-disney-world-special-districting-status-in-florida/(2) https://www.vox.com/recode/23032705/netflix-subscriber-loss-streaming-warsReplies: @songbird
That’s fair. And I totally respect your right to adopt the rationalistic approach as well – after all, that was me for most of my life too!
At this point, I have no “settled” religious views except that I increasingly do see myself as in some sense religious – I have this feeling that I want to explore old ideas that have been consigned to the dustbin, and expand my range beyond what modern “common sense” says is permissible.
Your point that there is no hard dividing line between modern times and previous times in terms of dysfunction and mental illness is a good one and even, I’d say, important to emphasize.
We would be foolish to think we can heal ourselves by merely rolling back modernity – this is seductively simplistic, and wrong not just because tradition itself often got corrupted and needed to be reformed, but because the sickness appears at the dawn of history.
One only has to read the early Christians, or the Buddhists or Taoists, to realize man has been sick for a long time – even though today we talk of “sin”, that is a corruption of the initial idea of most spiritual traditions, which see wrong behavior and belief as a “sickness”, and spiritual practice as the “cure”. I believe the early Church referred to itself as a “hospital”.
I would say what distinguishes modernity is that all those factors that have made mankind “sick” since recorded history became especially intensified in modern times – reached their apogee – and all possible “exits” became closed as rationalism dominated.
I realize however this is not necessarily your view!
Very interesting insight into Mormons.
I am curious as to how they “contextualize” their own weeping – even highly masculine cultures often permit displays of weakness and emotion in certain areas, generally relating to extreme grief and death of loved ones.
Of course, a culture that encourages weeping over mere ordinary hardship, pain, and tribulation, as ours does, has certainly grown pathological and lost the crucial sense of the “larger picture”!
Certainly our culture has become pathologically feminine – but a culture that is too stoic and rigid and unemotional similarly becomes brittle and sterile, and ultimately weak.
But from your description, it does indeed sound like modern Mormonism is quite corrupted by the surrounding culture – entirely as one would expect, I think.
“Institutional” culture these days of any sort seems easily corrupted because of the money and politics factor.
To truly practice an alternative ethics one would have to – at least to some extent – genuinely surrender wealth and power. And no “institution” willingly does that.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
I’ve heard Col McGregor say interesting things before this war started but perhaps you’re listening too much to the same set of people.
A man in a position to have a better knowledge than all these 3 about the real situation of the Russian forces in Ukraine is Igor Strelkov, the Russian commander of the Donbass separatists in 2014. He may have some grudges against those who replaced him with Zakharchenko but there’s hardly anyone with a deeper desire to have Russia militarily defeat Ukraine. He also correctly predicted in 2014 that eventually Russia would face itself with a war against the West.
Here’s a Google translation of why he thinks that Russia will also fail in the second phase if it doesn’t quickly go for a full mobilization:
—–
So, let’s briefly assess the operational situation:
1. On our part: after the “successful completion of the first stage of the operation” (which ended in a large-scale RETREAT from the territory of the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions) – there is a redeployment and concentration of forces in the Donetsk sector of the front. Apparently (and according to the statements of the political leadership of the Russian Federation), it is here that it is planned to carry out the “second stage” and solve the problem of completely clearing the territory of the LDNR from enemy groups.
Obviously, the calculation is being made on the creation of two or three strike groups sufficient in number, which – with the concentrated support of all aviation forces and most of the artillery – will “grind” the opposing Ukrainian forces (which are still estimated for some reason not highly) and defeat them in one big battle.
2. On the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the plans of the command of the RF Armed Forces are well known to the enemy, and he – the enemy – does not at all consider the defeat of his grouping inevitable. On the contrary, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to defend themselves on their heavily fortified positions, relying on previously and newly created (the command of the RF Armed Forces provided them with enough time) fortified nodes in the alleged directions of the strike of the Russian troops (and they are obvious – it’s enough to look at the map).
We ask ourselves the question: does the superiority of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and heavy weapons guarantee victory over an enemy (for whom offensive plans are obvious) prepared for defense, with high morale? My answer is NO, not guaranteed.
Why? – I answer:
The “superiority” of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and artillery is very relative. Since the enemy has a well-equipped and numerous military air defense, which seriously limits the actions of tactical aviation, which is capable of supporting its troops on the battlefield. The enemy has an ADVANTAGE in the means of field and artillery reconnaissance (unmanned aerial vehicles of various classes are already almost at the platoon level). And its artillery has good weapons and well-trained personnel. And against the numerous Russian armored vehicles – the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in defense conditions) are quite capable due to the really huge amount of anti-tank weapons in the hands of the infantry (ATGM).
In conditions when Russian troops will have to storm one urban agglomeration after another, the amount of manpower comes to the fore. But in it, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR, alas, do not have a serious advantage.
Suppose, having overcome the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Izyum and in the Gulyai-Pole area, our troops begin to advance in converging directions.
Can they quickly unite in the deep rear of the Ukrainian grouping, creating (“according to the classics”) two encirclement rings (external and internal)? With a guarantee that the enemy will not immediately break through them and create their own “cauldrons” for the attackers? (The Germans did this repeatedly in 1942 with our troops).
I express doubt. Why? – I answer: because this requires a LOT of units and formations, designed not only to break through, but also to firmly secure the territory. As well as a large number of supply units. If the enemy had few forces, the protection of communications could be partially ignored. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine (thanks to mobilizations) already have enough forces – comparable to the number of our troops in the theater. In addition, the enemy has the ability to shorten the front line and transfer the released forces to threatened areas – the Russian Federation does not have complete air supremacy simply because of the insufficient number of strike aircraft and the negligible number of strike drones. At the same time, the main the enemy can hold the front line near Donetsk with relatively small forces due to the excellent engineering equipment that has been produced for many years,
In this regard, I assume that the general lack of forces will not allow the Russian command to carry out “deep coverage in the area of the Dnieper (Ekaterinoslav). – There simply will not be enough forces for this. Therefore, the offensive will be carried out “along the shortest directions” – from the north – to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (maximum – on Barvenkovo), from the south – on the Ugledar-Kurakhovo line. Both of these lines of operation inevitably lead our troops to “sticking” into heavily fortified and occupied by large, pre-prepared for defense garrisons continuous urban agglomerations. the enemy is completely left with roads along which he will be able to supply his troops.
Thus, after some time in these areas, the situation will repeat itself, which already exists in the areas of Rubizhnoye-Severodonetsk, Popasnaya, Avdeevka and Marinka, where the Allied forces are moving forward very slowly and with very heavy losses (especially in the infantry). Or they don’t advance at all (Avdeevka).
The enemy is “more than completely” satisfied with this method of warfare. Why? – Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine need another one and a half to two (maximum – three) months to prepare large reserves – not in the form of constant replenishment to the active troops (they continuously do this, maintaining the number of units directly involved in the battles at a fairly high level), but in the form of new units and formations that can be deployed in other strategic directions, while Russian forces “bleed”, storming the fortified cities of Donbass.
In the worst case scenario, we may repeat a situation similar to the one that developed for the Wehrmacht during Operation Citadel (Kursk Bulge). While the Germans, slowly gnawing through the defense in depth of the Soviet troops, were losing time and wasting their accumulated reserves, the Soviet command concentrated to the north (near Belgorod and Orel) a large grouping of its own troops, not involved in the battle. And when she went on the offensive, it “suddenly became clear” that Germany did not have the strength to simultaneously continue Operation Citadel and repel the counteroffensive of Soviet troops. I had to curtail the operation and return the battered troops to their original positions. And then, in general, more or less organized (which the Germans did not succeed in everywhere) – to roll back beyond the Dnieper.
In this regard, I remind you that the so-called. “Ukraine” is finishing the THIRD STAGE OF GENERAL MOBILIZATION. It has a human resource (200-300 thousand people) and technical capability (a huge flow of various weapons from Europe and the USA) to not only maintain a sufficient number of its troops at the front, but also create new reserves. And to create them “in quantity” (even 100 thousand people – this is about 50 battalion tactical groups, including reinforcements and rear infrastructure – that is, about 10 full-blooded divisions).
And we have? We are recruiting for various PMCs, recruiting contract soldiers in the military registration and enlistment offices and … that’s all … LDNR (in terms of mobilization) “swept clean” – and those “who else can be caught”, God forbid, will be able to replenish already incurred and future losses.
Suppose it is possible (at the expense of PMCs) to create another 10 (even 20, which is unlikely) various kinds of detachments and BTGs. What next? The losses incurred in the Donbass (during the assault on the next “fortresses” they will definitely be VERY HIGH) will also need to be compensated somehow.
In general, HOW will the Russian command be able to “fend off” the concentration of fresh formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, on the borders of the Kursk and Belgorod regions in a month or two? And if they go on the offensive, how will they be repelled? Consolidated police detachments, detachments of “Alco-Cossacks” (all real Cossacks are already at the front) or the regional militia? So it – the regional militia – has not even been created yet !!! Nobody stutters…
Or did our military “agree in advance” with the enemy that he (the enemy) would behave strictly within the framework of the plans of our glorified General Staff? At the “first stage of the NWO” – somehow this did not work out “from the word at all.” With sensitive losses for participants. And I don’t think that at the “second stage” it will be somehow different – the military men are obviously not going to act as “whipping boys”.
Thus, summing up, I note:
Without carrying out at least partial mobilization in the Russian Federation – to carry out deep strategic offensive operations on the so-called. “Ukraine” is both impossible and extremely dangerous. We need to prepare for a long and difficult war, which will require all the human resources that are mediocrely squandered now for the sake of “a flag over the next city council” (how quickly you can “change flags” – Gostomel and Bucha will not let you lie).
And – yes – I would very much like to be mistaken in my forecasts for the operation that has begun (“second stage”). But the pomp with which the hedonists, who have already pissed themselves off many times (in all fields), through and through false talkers and mediocrity, “present” it – does not inspire additional optimism in me. NO CONCLUSIONS have been drawn from the failures of the first two months – strategically.
https://t.me/s/igorstrelkov
That was of course a very long war against a foreign puppet government.
Liberating the hostage Russian civilian population in the Donbass from Azov terror is correctly the first emergency priority. This effort evidently musters a lot of public support within Russia.
If the war continues on to liberate regions where the people have a more Ukrainian identity, hopefully ordinary civilians there will not be at risk of execution by extremists.
The gamble is whether the Ukrainian people will have the stomach for a long war, and how deeply felt is their Ukrainian identity. In the Vietnam war, the South Vietnamese identity and their corrupt democracy did not have broad and deep enough support within South Vietnam or the USA. However, this time there is the difference that Americans aren't being drafted and their mainstream media are locked down tight. So far, the Western powers are ready to fight to the last Ukrainian. So it may hinge on the Ukrainians themselves, what price they are willing to pay to keep that pretty flag.
Every time the right gives these retards the benefit of the doubt or let themselves get shouted down.Replies: @A123
In the pre-MAGA U.S. this was legitimate criticism. MegaCorporations and neocons ran both left and right.
This is why MAGA us so important. The entire left-right concept is dying. The new dynamic is Globalist-Populist:
— MAGA/GOP Populism stands with worker/citizens and is steadfastly opposed to sending U.S (or even NATO) troops into Ukraine for a NFZ or anything else.
— SJW/DNC Globalism unifies the MIC, Multiculturalists, and NeoConDemocrats. All of the pro-conflict power groups are united in the Democrat War Party
The change is still a work in progress. Romney, Cheney, and Murkowski, are clearly Globalists who are in the wrong party as Republican officials.
_____
If you do not believe me ask, “What is the MAGA/GOP doing about SJW Globalism?”
I am glad you asked.
The answer is, “MAGA/GOP is going to revoke \$200MM/yr in tax benefits to Groomer Disney MegaCorporation” (1)
As an aside, even with no Government action, Netflix is experiencing a U.S. citizen led “Go woke, Go Broke” backlash. (2)
The pendulum swung toward crazy for over a generation. Now it is headed back towards sanity in a sweep that could last 50+ years.
Our Posterity now has a fighting chance at a better life than we had. What more could any parent want?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/19/desantis-announces-special-legislative-session-will-debate-removal-of-disney-world-special-districting-status-in-florida/
(2) https://www.vox.com/recode/23032705/netflix-subscriber-loss-streaming-wars
My go to explanation is economics. I would theorize it is because people are starting to feel the inflation, rather than because normies are waking up.
Unfortunately, there is no popular, based streaming service to test economic trends in streaming services.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
I was thinking about some parallel with the current Russian Army.Replies: @Dmitry
Although in terms of the social status in 21st century times in Russia, I would say the army is not too high, so this is not Franco’s Spain. In Russia of the last decades, the most elite and desirable career for young people, is computer science. In comparison, social desirability of becoming contract soldiers, is somewhere between prisoners and prostitutes, perhaps without exaggeration. (Although prisoners have quite a cool image in some ways, and they continue talking with strange words after they exit prison).
When something is socially high status, it filters for motivated people. This recruitment filter can overcome institutional problems.
E.g. Even in some elite university courses in Russia, education in computer science, is disorganized and with lack of investment, except some interesting old teachers (who have technical excellence of Soviet times, which doesn’t necessarily mean good teachers).
However, because it is high social status things, it filtered for the more competent and well organized students. These students are self-organizing, working as teams, educating themselves. As a result of institutional problems, the Russian graduates can develop additional skills, compared to Western graduates. Skills of teamwork in particular.
High social status things like computer science, attracted the well organized and motivated students, and this filter can overcome problems created by institutional lack of investments and local chaos.
But with the army in 21st century Russia, it’s one of the more socially perceived low status job, so what kind of filter for selection does this create for recruitment. I don’t think they will filter for on average, people with high organization abilities, that can overcome the institutional problems.
–
It’s interesting though, in Soviet culture we have a different image of the army, the Soviet officer has an noble and elite image. The perception of the Soviet officer, was also an educated person. There is also an ideal of selfless sacrifice, I guess from people reading too much Arkady Gaidar. In the postsoviet, this perception of the career, almost reversed quite a lot.
From media consumption, I remember a lot nowadays, the world famous story about Admiral Mukhametshin insulting Kant in Konigsberg/Kaliningrad. (There is the BBC article about this idiot https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46440713) In a serious or elite dictatorship, you would need to be executed for saying these things about Kant.
This obsession about ceremony and perception, is something similar to Latin culture.
If you watch on YouTube at events of Chile in Pinochet, their parades remind a lot of Soviet culture.
Although even developed countries’ armies like UK, have ceremonial soldiers and functions, so maybe it is not so unusual.
But in the Russian army, why tankers have special ceremony salutes. VDV have a different “dance move” with hands on waist.
You can see at 58:00. (At 59:30 you can see mock vehicles made for the parade).
And all those honor guards, who are selected for their physical appearance (you need to be unusually good looking, young and tall to be selected for that job – although in recent years they remove the requirement of slavic appearance). It’s becoming a bit close to Kpop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hikuB-YKNDY
Excellent fixed bayonet drill.Replies: @Dmitry
-- SJW/DNC Globalism unifies the MIC, Multiculturalists, and NeoConDemocrats. All of the pro-conflict power groups are united in the Democrat War PartyThe change is still a work in progress. Romney, Cheney, and Murkowski, are clearly Globalists who are in the wrong party as Republican officials.
_____If you do not believe me ask, "What is the MAGA/GOP doing about SJW Globalism?"I am glad you asked. The answer is, "MAGA/GOP is going to revoke $200MM/yr in tax benefits to Groomer Disney MegaCorporation" (1) As an aside, even with no Government action, Netflix is experiencing a U.S. citizen led "Go woke, Go Broke" backlash. (2)The pendulum swung toward crazy for over a generation. Now it is headed back towards sanity in a sweep that could last 50+ years. Our Posterity now has a fighting chance at a better life than we had. What more could any parent want?PEACE 😇
__________(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/19/desantis-announces-special-legislative-session-will-debate-removal-of-disney-world-special-districting-status-in-florida/(2) https://www.vox.com/recode/23032705/netflix-subscriber-loss-streaming-warsReplies: @songbird
Isn’t this a perennial story, with Netflix? For example, some time after that atrocious “French” movie that AK reviewed.
My go to explanation is economics. I would theorize it is because people are starting to feel the inflation, rather than because normies are waking up.
Unfortunately, there is no popular, based streaming service to test economic trends in streaming services.
__________(1) https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/04/19/cnn-is-on-its-deathbed-and-i-cant-stop-laughing-n1591093https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WswOEtuPW4MReplies: @songbird
Rumor had it that those who get to the head of the line and make a successful case for solidarity:
— Are not inducted into the RF military
— Are handed 10,000 loyalty Rubles in cash (~120 USD equivalent)
If true, it is not a bad play on Putin’s part. There is a huge amount of non-bank, African economic value held in physical currency. Push enough Ruble denominated bills into circulation and there is also psychological impact.
PEACE 😇
My go to explanation is economics. I would theorize it is because people are starting to feel the inflation, rather than because normies are waking up.
Unfortunately, there is no popular, based streaming service to test economic trends in streaming services.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
If it was simply economics… CNN+ would have fared better. Their “Go Woke, Go Broke” flame out is truly spectacular. (1)
Yes. There are other reasons why Netflix’s is suffering. However the broad theme is clear.
Being anti-American is no longer selling in America. Niche resistance had Marlon Brando “rebellion” upside when it was limited [VIDEO @~1:20]. After fiascos like Portland and Seattle’s CHAZ/CHOP that is over.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/04/19/cnn-is-on-its-deathbed-and-i-cant-stop-laughing-n1591093
Much of the success of CNN itself was that it came in cable bundles, where you were forced to pay for it, whether you wanted it or not. Maybe, there was a point to it in the '80s or even '90s.
But now, it is hard to see the point. There are several free news streaming services. Not to mention, one can get their news on the internet. If one really wants talking heads, for the most part, I think podcasts are better.
I get the idea that it might actually help that they are woke. Woke may be a relatively small audience, but they are motivated to watch the "news", because it lets them feel part of the progressive cult.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123
Warsaw? You may be overthinking this a bit.
I’m not really thinking anything specifically about any of things you are talking about. I was just impressed with your confident prediction. You must have a good track record with these things.
It’s just that, well…I think if Putin knew that this is where he would be on April 21st, he would not have invaded two months ago.
Specifically with Putin, the way he presented it, suggests that he came to a conclusion that he - and by extension Russia - had no choice but war. Wars make everyone worse off - Russia had to take that into account, but whatever the alternative was, they determined that starting a war was better.
High social status things like computer science, attracted the well organized and motivated students, and this filter can overcome problems created by institutional lack of investments and local chaos. But with the army in 21st century Russia, it's one of the more socially perceived low status job, so what kind of filter for selection does this create for recruitment. I don't think they will filter for on average, people with high organization abilities, that can overcome the institutional problems. -It's interesting though, in Soviet culture we have a different image of the army, the Soviet officer has an noble and elite image. The perception of the Soviet officer, was also an educated person. There is also an ideal of selfless sacrifice, I guess from people reading too much Arkady Gaidar. In the postsoviet, this perception of the career, almost reversed quite a lot. From media consumption, I remember a lot nowadays, the world famous story about Admiral Mukhametshin insulting Kant in Konigsberg/Kaliningrad. (There is the BBC article about this idiot https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46440713) In a serious or elite dictatorship, you would need to be executed for saying these things about Kant. This obsession about ceremony and perception, is something similar to Latin culture. If you watch on YouTube at events of Chile in Pinochet, their parades remind a lot of Soviet culture. Although even developed countries' armies like UK, have ceremonial soldiers and functions, so maybe it is not so unusual. But in the Russian army, why tankers have special ceremony salutes. VDV have a different "dance move" with hands on waist. You can see at 58:00. (At 59:30 you can see mock vehicles made for the parade). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc-MtpQVQfcAnd all those honor guards, who are selected for their physical appearance (you need to be unusually good looking, young and tall to be selected for that job - although in recent years they remove the requirement of slavic appearance). It's becoming a bit close to Kpop.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BduC2N4PaTIReplies: @Wokechoke
Those are drill teams. Every army has a few. The best one in the British military is the RAF Regiment. Airfield guard troops.
Excellent fixed bayonet drill.
Although even in the 21st century British military ceremonies they still win with lion skins (3:20), horse carriages (2:15), royal waiters (1:24). And I guess the ceremonial soldiers are veterans from the SAS, rather than male models selected because of their long legs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilPvLCU9SE0
I think you mean svidomy!
Version about deeper motivations of some politician behaviours in Germany below. IMHO in such context true proud imperial German should more likely rather be leaning to not giving a damn about RF delusions of grandeur and view UA as their own interest sphere like they did in 1918 with Brest-Litovsk treaty, but still interesting read:
twitter.com/OctobearKnight
I would add a third. The encirclement of Kiev combined with a partial blockade (train and heavy truck) would degrade "quality of life" in the city without irrevocably breaking infrastructure. Regaining Kiev more or less intact versus the implicit threat of mass artillery barrages sounded convincing as a bargain Zelensky might have accepted. After all, Russian military tactics are known to be "tube heavy".
Zelensky did not take the opportunity. Perhaps his advisors detected the problem with RF logistics via Belarus and concluded that the Russians could not bring enough force forward to deliver "shock & awe" on Kiev. If not, Zelensky took a huge gamble.
Regardless of why RF pulled back, they now have nothing to offer Zelensky as a high value trade. That is combined with boosted Ukrainian morale. Zelensky has little incentive to negotiate at this point, and trying to do so could get him lynched by his own side.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
The Russians (which they perhaps inherited from the Soviets) have the concept of an Operational Maneuver Group.
Their job is to strike deep into the enemy’s rear and generally fuck things up badly.
That is what the strikes around Kiev were about. And they managed to withdraw with limited casualties.
Слава России
Also, see this video on the VDV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hikuB-YKNDY
Excellent fixed bayonet drill.Replies: @Dmitry
Lol yes I think by now everything is originally British culture. Whether the customs from the British Empire, were copy pasted to Soviet Victory Day parade, or Pinochet, banquets of Arab, Latin and African dictatorships (which all the leaders around the world learn, when they visit the Queen, as even Putin in 2003 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTnlJz_jJYI.), etc.
Although even in the 21st century British military ceremonies they still win with lion skins (3:20), horse carriages (2:15), royal waiters (1:24). And I guess the ceremonial soldiers are veterans from the SAS, rather than male models selected because of their long legs.
I generally don’t like it either. I did it to my parents once, but the look on their faces made me feel like a royal POS. Never again.
Also, “attack” isn’t really the right word. I don’t challenge religious beliefs or practices with a view to persuading people to abandon them completely. I see it more as a kind of “engagement” with their ideas, which can sometimes – not always, but sometimes – be productive for one or both parties.
I watch a lot of Catholic content on youtube, especially apologist and “outreach”-oriented material, people like Bishop Barron and Trent Horn. I can’t see me ever becoming a true-believing Catholic (to put it mildly), but I think they can be useful political and cultural allies (fraught with difficulties as that is – their stance on abortion, sigh…)
I watched a documentary on some “reenactment” spectacular they put on, related to their goofy historical beliefs. An incredible amount of effort must have gone into that, it was very impressive. All the same, I imagined myself being there, being around these people, and the thought of it was very alienating. I honestly think I’d feel more relaxed, if not exactly “at home”, among a bunch of “satanists” – probably because I know they don’t really believe in it, and it seems cut from the same cultural cloth to me as Christianity, so even though I don’t share their values, they don’t seem completely weird to me the way Mormons do.
I mean, Russia's initial plan seems to have been to re-instate Yanukovich from exile, you would think they would have picked someone less divisive if someone else was available. I thought Medvechuk would be more competent at least, but now the Ukrainians have taken their former MP as a POW, while he was hiding incognito as a common soldier, no less.
But I'm all ears if you have any real facts you think people should know about.Replies: @Mikhail, @siberiancat
The only person from the Ukrainian pre-Maidan politicians who is playing any role on the Russian side is Oleg Tsarev. Not that the role is large.
Yanukovich was and is invisible.
I think a great deal of prayer that happens is essentially a form of sorcery; trying to influence spiritual powers to effect your own will. I would say that proper Christian prayer must always be tempered by the sentiment of, “Thy will be done”. It is perhaps presumptuous to expect that God needs us to tell him His business after all!
Honestly, just sounds like a bunch of post-modern babble to me. “Can’t call them racists because we are the same race, so let’s call them imperialists.”
Economic concerns are enough to explain it, IMO. I’m in an LNG network, and our gas costs are about 6x that of parts of the country purely on pipelines.
And it is absolutely puerile to reduce all economic concerns to greed. Germany is an export-based economy. Its industries may go under, with higher energy costs. That means people out of work. That and other costs associated with energy could affect things like family formation.
One interesting question about Germany’s dependence on Russian energy imports is why it is that the Greens gained so much influence on energy policy. Utu would have us believe that it was the Russkies and them alone, using the Greens as their pawns. I believe that the answer is that the German state apparatus is built around crushing all right-leaning political parties – largely as a consequence of WW2, but exacerbated greatly by globohomo. Naturally, this has bad consequences for nuclear.
It is like a sword of Damocles hanging over German economy - it takes away the sense of urgency, it undermines investments in alternatives because they are more expensive. Russia seems to want Germany to cut the energy flow - to break contracts. Or they will slowly shift to Asia and refuse to extend the current contracts.
This is simply not good for Germany and its industry. The only scenario where the current EU sanctions policy makes sense is if Russia would collapse and sue for peace. How likely is that? EU put its fate in Russia's hands - good and bad - that is never a good strategy.
Might I suggest adding dowsing to your list? I have a gut sense we were too quick to give up on that. Not to mention astrology, what with its venerable roots that far predate all modern religions. Those ancients might not have had our fancy “logic” and “science,” but they were no fools. There’s no way they would have persisted with reading fortunes and casting auguries unless there really was something to those practices.
Menachem’s driving in downtown Tel Aviv, frantically looking for a spot to park. He’s got a very important appointment and he can’t afford to be late. In desperation, he says to God, “God, I know I haven’t been a very good Jew. I’ve ignored kashrut, I haven’t kept the sabbath holy, I don’t attend synagogue. But if you please, please, please let me find a park, I promise I’m going to start doing all those things!” Just as he finishes his prayer, a car pulls out from a park not far in front of him. Menachem looks up at the sky and says, “Never mind, I found one.” 🙂
I even had a deep skeptic do it and he vehemently denied that it was possible as it was working for him. He was rather shaken.
Interestingly, the wires will cross over a human head (never tried animals). I was messing with them in my living room while a toddler was crawling around and was quite surprised when they crossed. It also seems to work with graves. I have an old 1800's cemetery on my property, with many unmarked graves. As I was messing around with my dowsing wires I was again surprised walking across the cemetery space to have them cross and uncross again and again as I walked over every grave. Don't ask me how it works, because I don't know. I can tell you that it really does work though. My wife and I used to mess around with tarot cards and it was always quite uncanny. She had the knack for knowing when to stop shuffling and deal the cards. Sometimes she would deal some, feel she needed to shuffle more and then deal the rest. It never worked when I tried it, it was totally random. I however was better than her at interpreting the dealt cards. It was interesting and led to much rumination to how it worked. I think it was more than just reading meaning into random patterns, since it was totally and evidently gibberish when I tried to deal.
Atmospheric. Good performances, and locations. I was expecting it to be a regular haunted house story, but I appreciated (spoilers)how it tied to things outside the house. If I had to nitpick a little:
1.) two baptism medals: it didn't made sense to me, when I was watching it, as the murder was probably premeditated, so he should have grabbed it. But I guess I can forgive it, as it could be explained away - if he forgot to remove it in the heat of the moment, before dumping the body.
My second point I make more because it amuses me:
2.) I felt like someone was cucked, but I can't figure out who. Maybe, the ghost, as he did not get his revenge on the guy that killed him, or his natural progeny, who carried his evil genes, but rather on an adoptee, who did not take part in the killing. Or, maybe, the murderer because he had no natural progeny to which to funnel the inheritance.Replies: @silviosilver
Great, always happy to hear it when a recommendation works out. 🙂
Regarding the medallion, maybe it wasn’t on the body, but the “ghost” made it appear there the way it did with his daughter’s ball in the house, after it had been thrown into the river.
And yeah, the ending wasn’t particularly satisfying. I find that a bit more forgivable in a horror than in other sorts of movies.
I’d be happy to add dowsing and astrology to my list of things we should reconsider 🙂 I’m not particularly interested in the subject, but I believe in the past year I read that there exists evidence for dowsing. And I strongly suspect there is some truth to astrology, although again it doesn’t interest me as a subject.
I’m open minded enough to reconsider quite literally every old “discredited” idea – isn’t that the true spirit of science?
The point is, modern science works by demanding an extremely high level of certainty and repeatability. It began with Descartes, but Mcgilchrist traces several significant watersheds where the demand for certainty massively accelerated in our culture, with one of the most significant being in the 30s in German science iirc.
Certainty is all good and well, but the thing is, there just might be all sorts of fascinating areas where you can’t have certainty, but you can have some level of knowledge and influence.
If our culture wants to ignore all that, that seems to me kind of cowardly – the desire for absolute certainty seems to be a need for safety, and to lack courage. It’s of a piece with bureaucracy. This wasn’t the spirit of original science.
It shouldn’t be too difficult to imagine a culture that honors the study of the full range of human experience, both the certain and the less certain – instead of an anxious need for absolute certainty, and a complete ignoring of what doesn’t fit our need for safety.
The demand for absolute certainty to the exclusion of all else was in the end a sign of decline in vitality – where has our daring and exuberance gone?
Today one of the main tasks of science seems to be telling us “it can’t be so, reality is much less than you think” – but how many people know that when it started, science was about telling us “it might be so, reality is much bigger than you think”?
Ironically, when the original bold spirit of adventure and daring empirical experiment returns it will be leading us to God and religion in some form, even if not defined with “certainty” 🙂
Funny story about Menachem and his parking spot 🙂
It ties in to the idea I’ve read recently about some guy keeps on asking God to help him but neglecting every opportunity that God opens up for him because it isn’t literally God appearing out of a cloud with thunder and lightning and changing things.
Point is, “reality” is mediated by our unproven assumptions, and if you a priori rule out God literally every event can be explained away – even God appearing in a cloud with thunder and lightning 🙂
(An illusion caused by chemical imbalance in brain, etc, etc).
One of the reasons the scientific approach is so useful is that it allows you to eliminate hypotheses. If you've successfully disproven - "discredited" - one idea, you don't have to keep thinking about it. Of course, it's best when several people independently disprove it, that way you can have more confidence that crucial details weren't overlooked, but in general, once you are satisfied that something has been disproven, you can confidently move on.
Also, I consider myself open-minded too. A skeptic, certainly, but an open-minded skeptic. I think a world in which the paranormal is real would be much more exciting than one in which it isn't. (A bit unsettling too, I suppose, but I think I could live with that.) I'm not opposed on principle. I don't even need anything like total certainty to decide one way or the other, it's just that the evidence I've seen proffered so far hasn't met even my relatively low bar. Other people, with even lower bars, evidently feel differently. Actually, that's an argument I recently heard made on one of the Catholic apologist podcasts I listen to. It's one of the better theistic arguments I've come across. It doesn't prove anything, but it does a fine job of turning a favorite atheistic line of reasoning back against them.
Theists are often accused of retreating into "God of the gaps" territory - as science has removed the need for "God" explanations for various phenomena, theists retreats to claiming only God can explain the various remaining gaps in scientific knowledge. The argument asks the atheist what he would consider sufficient proof of God, and it maintains that no matter what answer is given, the answer will in some way take on a "God of the gaps" form. If the atheist experienced the proof of God's existence that he claims would convince him, he'd be left arguing that the experience was so out of the ordinary that he has no way of explaining it, therefore it must have been God - ie a God of the gaps.Replies: @AaronB, @Coconuts, @Barbarossa
Was that intentional word crafting? Or, purely instictual?
Either way...very good.
PEACE 😇
I think that you have made a couple of statements that mischaracterized what science is but I'm a bit lazy today and don't want to debate that. However, this is very questionable: That alibi certainly doesn't apply to most people claiming to have paranormal powers. They do want to be believed and be taken seriously but none of them has ever been able to show these powers under controlled empirical conditions. If there was one single person on the planet capable of doing paranormal things it's impossible to believe that none of them has been able to win any of the decades-old succulent prizes on offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
Anyway, I hear that this canal in the Salt Flats desert is becoming more and more popular:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t02Jx0xjinE/YQtyCI0UQrI/AAAAAAAAUlk/QOBjPTrlSmo-fc-0HhDTr-b6sOktKcx9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h328/Canal.png
It's a man-made canal of brine going from a potash factory to a distant evaporation lagoon. Man-made structures in the middle of nature usually put me off but I can understand its popularity. I once saw the canal edge in the distance while I was trying to cross the salt flats to reach the mountains in the background. I can imagine myself navigating that canal in a canoe in the future. That salty water doesn't freeze in winter.
Perhaps what I've been trying to do all my life when enjoying contact with nature is have some sort of spiritual/religious experience. Sometimes it feels like that. But that's as far as I can go: just marvel at the beauty of nature.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
As you say, mental illnesses now are certainly more visible than in times past (all over the western world, as far as I can see) and we also feel a more urgent need to combat them, which perhaps leads to more people feeling that they are "sick", whereas in the past the same conditions would not have led to medical treatment. People just had to find some adjustment to their problems by themselves.
What medical science is certain about is that most mental illnesses have a genetic component, which means that in some form or another they have always been with us. I once read that panic disorder and agoraphobia had been found even among Eskimos. How people coped with these diseases across the ages is difficult to know. As AaronB said, we live in an age where we try to avoid suffering at all costs, while people in the past were more stoic. They didn't have any other choice either.
Another thing to consider before rushing to conclude that modern society is all crap is that in the past natural selection weeded out sickness in a brutal way. Someone suffering from certain mental illnesses in a hunter-gatherer environment was more unlikely to survive and thus pass on his genetic condition. But for several generations now, especially in the West, people survive and procreate almost regardless of their fitness so we should naturally expect to see more diseases of all kinds only on that account.Replies: @utu, @Barbarossa
I would make a separation when we talk about mental illness. There are mental illness like schizophrenia, which I have no reason to believe has increased or decreased. Perhaps they have moved one way or another, but they are not what I am talking about.
I believe that anxiety and depression on the other hand, have increased dramatically. Partly I think it is because many people have the ability to indulge these destructive attitudes, which increases and deepens their hold. I think there is a benefit to having to being compelled by life’s realities to “get over it” when it comes to our own existential insecurities. This is less and less expected by society, so inclined individuals are enabled to indulge their morbid fascination with themselves.
We have also dismantled many of the structures which kept these feelings in check. Religion often provided a useful sense of perspective (It’s not all about you!), and community and cultural identity gave the majority of individuals a comforting baseline to default to. As much as anything I think it’s very difficult psychically to expect every person to be a self-defining self-actualizing individual. There are always some who break the mold in any age, but I think the majority of people need and want guidelines. The absence of these in society can lead to feelings of drift and anxiety.
This is true, and I think that it does lead to a greater incidence of negative traits being passed on. I’m not sure that this is a net kindness since it seems to entail a downward spiral as society is increasingly structured around the unwell. It seems to me that one could make a compelling “anti-vax” argument on these grounds. I’m not sure I would agree with it ethically, but I think it would be a compelling argument.
If we ever have a large scale collapse resulting from over-extended modern resource management I wouldn’t be surprised if all the avoided premature deaths and resulting population explosion will be just an act of kicking the can down the road.
He regards it as a typical disease of modernity, like cancer or diabetes but even more so (there are apparently no descriptions of schizophrenia from antiquity).Replies: @Barbarossa
Perhaps that is the dilemma we face today. Go back to a much more brutal existence that our ancestors evolved to live in with death being much more present all the time or have a more comfortable life knowing that it will nevertheless lead many people to suffer from mental problems. A healthy social life, as Silvio and you have pointed out in different ways, seems to help prevent some of them.
I believe that anxiety and depression on the other hand, have increased dramatically. Partly I think it is because many people have the ability to indulge these destructive attitudes, which increases and deepens their hold. I think there is a benefit to having to being compelled by life's realities to "get over it" when it comes to our own existential insecurities. This is less and less expected by society, so inclined individuals are enabled to indulge their morbid fascination with themselves.
We have also dismantled many of the structures which kept these feelings in check. Religion often provided a useful sense of perspective (It's not all about you!), and community and cultural identity gave the majority of individuals a comforting baseline to default to. As much as anything I think it's very difficult psychically to expect every person to be a self-defining self-actualizing individual. There are always some who break the mold in any age, but I think the majority of people need and want guidelines. The absence of these in society can lead to feelings of drift and anxiety. This is true, and I think that it does lead to a greater incidence of negative traits being passed on. I'm not sure that this is a net kindness since it seems to entail a downward spiral as society is increasingly structured around the unwell. It seems to me that one could make a compelling "anti-vax" argument on these grounds. I'm not sure I would agree with it ethically, but I think it would be a compelling argument.
If we ever have a large scale collapse resulting from over-extended modern resource management I wouldn't be surprised if all the avoided premature deaths and resulting population explosion will be just an act of kicking the can down the road.Replies: @AaronB, @silviosilver, @Mikel
Mcgilchrist says schizophrenia massively increased in modern times, and is particularly acute and hard to treat in developed Western countries.
He regards it as a typical disease of modernity, like cancer or diabetes but even more so (there are apparently no descriptions of schizophrenia from antiquity).
What does he think that the causal mechanism is?
On a related note, I started reading The Master and His Emissary. I'm only about 30 pages in, but I'm enjoying it so far. I appreciate that he is attempting to cohere the science into something more ambitiously imbued with meaning. I think that many scientists have chickened out of that mission since it is seen as too risky.
I realize the downside to picking up a book like that, is that I am not versed in the science myself and so am going to be unaware or alternative/ conflicting interpretations of the data. To some extent, I will be unable to really give the material a properly critical reading. However, I think It will be an enjoyable and interesting read nonetheless. Thanks for the recommendation on it!Replies: @AaronB
If we would know ahead of time what will happen we would not do much. Initiative requires uncertainty.
Specifically with Putin, the way he presented it, suggests that he came to a conclusion that he – and by extension Russia – had no choice but war. Wars make everyone worse off – Russia had to take that into account, but whatever the alternative was, they determined that starting a war was better.
Dowsing absolutely works and I’ve done it. Not for water wells but for other buried things. One can find buried lines of various types with a couple of bent copper wires.
I even had a deep skeptic do it and he vehemently denied that it was possible as it was working for him. He was rather shaken.
Interestingly, the wires will cross over a human head (never tried animals). I was messing with them in my living room while a toddler was crawling around and was quite surprised when they crossed. It also seems to work with graves. I have an old 1800’s cemetery on my property, with many unmarked graves. As I was messing around with my dowsing wires I was again surprised walking across the cemetery space to have them cross and uncross again and again as I walked over every grave. Don’t ask me how it works, because I don’t know. I can tell you that it really does work though.
My wife and I used to mess around with tarot cards and it was always quite uncanny. She had the knack for knowing when to stop shuffling and deal the cards. Sometimes she would deal some, feel she needed to shuffle more and then deal the rest. It never worked when I tried it, it was totally random. I however was better than her at interpreting the dealt cards. It was interesting and led to much rumination to how it worked. I think it was more than just reading meaning into random patterns, since it was totally and evidently gibberish when I tried to deal.
Exactly. Some of it could had been mitigated if they stayed with nuclear. But they didn’t and in the timeframe that matters that decision can’t be reversed. Russia has clearly made a decision that continuing the supplies in spite of everything gives them more power than cutting it off now.
It is like a sword of Damocles hanging over German economy – it takes away the sense of urgency, it undermines investments in alternatives because they are more expensive. Russia seems to want Germany to cut the energy flow – to break contracts. Or they will slowly shift to Asia and refuse to extend the current contracts.
This is simply not good for Germany and its industry. The only scenario where the current EU sanctions policy makes sense is if Russia would collapse and sue for peace. How likely is that? EU put its fate in Russia’s hands – good and bad – that is never a good strategy.
He regards it as a typical disease of modernity, like cancer or diabetes but even more so (there are apparently no descriptions of schizophrenia from antiquity).Replies: @Barbarossa
Thanks, I’ll follow that up.
What does he think that the causal mechanism is?
On a related note, I started reading The Master and His Emissary. I’m only about 30 pages in, but I’m enjoying it so far. I appreciate that he is attempting to cohere the science into something more ambitiously imbued with meaning. I think that many scientists have chickened out of that mission since it is seen as too risky.
I realize the downside to picking up a book like that, is that I am not versed in the science myself and so am going to be unaware or alternative/ conflicting interpretations of the data. To some extent, I will be unable to really give the material a properly critical reading. However, I think It will be an enjoyable and interesting read nonetheless. Thanks for the recommendation on it!
What does he think that the causal mechanism is?
On a related note, I started reading The Master and His Emissary. I'm only about 30 pages in, but I'm enjoying it so far. I appreciate that he is attempting to cohere the science into something more ambitiously imbued with meaning. I think that many scientists have chickened out of that mission since it is seen as too risky.
I realize the downside to picking up a book like that, is that I am not versed in the science myself and so am going to be unaware or alternative/ conflicting interpretations of the data. To some extent, I will be unable to really give the material a properly critical reading. However, I think It will be an enjoyable and interesting read nonetheless. Thanks for the recommendation on it!Replies: @AaronB
I’m not sure if it’s in his Emissary book or his Things book, or in both.
Basically he sees schizophrenia as a classic left-hemisphere disease, a disease of being trapped too much in analysis and logic and abstract reason and being disconnected from body and emotion, imagination and intuition, and he traces classic schizophrenic symptoms throughout modern culture, art, philosophy, science, etc, and shows how patients with right-hemisphere damage immediately develop classic schizoid symptoms.
Mcgilchrist suggests that modern culture has become so tilted towards left-hemisphere thinking, that people already strongly predisposed to this style of thought fall more deeply into it in a truly pathological way and lack any balancing support from the culture towards right-hemisphere thinking, which might keep them sane.
It’s a fascinating discussion when you get to it.
Glad you’re enjoying the book!
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/indias-tata-steel-to-stop-doing-business-with-russia-7879141/Replies: @sudden death, @Thulean Friend
At this point, I’m concerned for his mental health.
Are these “anti-Western coalition” copers finally coming to terms with the fact that while China and India will not engage in primary sanctions, that courtesy does not always extend to secondary sanctions.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/russians-are-about-ten-days-away-from-culminating-point-lt-gen-hodges
On March 14 he said the Russians are 10-14 days away from being out of ammo and manpower.
How long ago was that? Oops. That was more than a month ago.Replies: @Mikhail, @Ron Unz
Actually, that’s exactly what happened during the Iraq War. All the former military people commenting on cable news were just bribed. I published an article about it a couple of years later:
https://www.unz.com/runz/the-life-and-legacy-of-lt-gen-william-odom/
Meanwhile, here’s an interview with former CIA officer Larry Johnson on RT. His views are exactly the same as those of Ritter and Macgregor, and personally, he comes across as very credible to me:
https://sonar21.com/rt-interviews-larry-johnson/
Basically, he’s claiming that Russia is fighting a physical war and Ukraine/NATO is mostly fighting a propaganda war.
Regarding the medallion, maybe it wasn't on the body, but the "ghost" made it appear there the way it did with his daughter's ball in the house, after it had been thrown into the river.
And yeah, the ending wasn't particularly satisfying. I find that a bit more forgivable in a horror than in other sorts of movies.Replies: @songbird
Now, that is an interesting theory. In my mind, when I watched it, I thought the ball had teleported back to the house. But I guess one could look at it as being a delusion of George C. Scott’s character (or perhaps even some physical manifestation), made possible by his psychic connection to the ghost.
What were they doing there? Ukraine's per capita is shit.
Either the standard logic that poor European countries can't attract "enrichment" is dead wrong, or there has been some well-heeled conspiracy to help get them there, or all that counts is political alignment.Replies: @Thulean Friend
DW, the German state broadcaster, had a good segment on Nigeria recently. Basically, university lecturers’ pay have been frozen since 2009 despite galloping inflation, thereby eroding their purchasing power in real terms. As a result, many of them are simply striking. That leaves ambitious students in a lurch with no classes to attend. One of the interviewed students says that a primary option for them is to leave for Ukraine.
I think there are several things to keep in mind here. While Nigeria is poor, it also has >200 million people. If you look at Canada’s top sourcing nations for their immigrants in the most recent year, Nigeria is fourth.
Even if you get into the cheapest community college, the costs associated with the entire trip, lodging and the fees are still going to be very high even for someone living in a much richer country such as Brazil. Nigeria is also a very unequal country. So if 15K Nigerians per year can get into a much richer country like Canada, why would Ukraine be an issue, given it is 15X times poorer?
Second, Ukraine has profiled itself as a gateway to Europe for the world third. If you look at their international student enrollment, it’s nearly all Africa, MENA, Caucasoids, South Asians etc. This is an uncomfortable truth which people like AP might not want to bring attention to. It also stands to contrast with int’l student enrollment figures in V4 countries, which has a much more varied intake.
Third, life in Ukraine may be worse than that of the EU but it sure as hell beats much of the rest. In terms of HDI, a more representative measure of living standards, Ukraine was just barely behind China in the latest ranking.
Fourth, my suspicion is that many also probably tried their luck to move onto the rest of the EU within a few years of getting PR. This is speculative, but there is precedent elsewhere, such as tech workers from India go to Canada first because it is easy getting a permanent residence, and then use that as a springboard to get to the USA since the greencard waiting list for Indians is very high.
Fifth, there is also anecdotal evidence that there may have been a deliberate attempt by some Eastern European countries to send these people further west as soon as the crisis began. I did read that some governments made an effort to inform them how to get to Berlin the fastest. So I don’t think your oft-quoted figure of “one third of all refugees are non-white” is accurate. It may have been accurate in the early stages on the conflict only concerning those who came to Germany, Ireland, Sweden etc. But in terms of overall flows, probably <5%.
My theory is that the general flows from Ukraine will continue indefinitely. If they have already run out of non-Euros, more will come, once it has been proven a successful pathway. Or, if inconvenient, they will simply join the flows at other points, outside Ukraine. These people have ideological facilitators, with money to spend to aid them.
The conflict in Ukraine will be fed to help distract from these flows, which could potentially be bigger than in all previous history. Inflation, food prices, and food availability will not help.
I have the idea that all those guys looking to sign up with the Russians in Ethiopia, were looking to get to Ukraine, then desert and become "refugees."Replies: @Thulean Friend
Your theory seems to be that it will decrease, and we were dealing with a fixed number of highly motile non-Euros, within Ukraine.
My theory is that the general flows from Ukraine will continue indefinitely. If they have already run out of non-Euros, more will come, once it has been proven a successful pathway. Or, if inconvenient, they will simply join the flows at other points, outside Ukraine. These people have ideological facilitators, with money to spend to aid them.
The conflict in Ukraine will be fed to help distract from these flows, which could potentially be bigger than in all previous history. Inflation, food prices, and food availability will not help.
I have the idea that all those guys looking to sign up with the Russians in Ethiopia, were looking to get to Ukraine, then desert and become “refugees.”
Some interesting demographic facts from Ireland:
-30% of Brazilians in Ireland are LGBT. (BTW, Brazil supposedly has the highest murder rate in the world for trannies – which one would suppose is an accident of demographics more than anything else. One underappreciated cause of globohomo is the desire of gays to increase the amount of “meat” that is available to them among those with low socio-economic status. )
-From, 2011 to 2016, the number of Jews in Ireland quadrupled.
-Irish people are now a minority in two thirds of inner city North Dublin.
-In 1999, only 2% of births were to foreign nationals. By 2003, it was almost 20%. An estimated 70% were Nigerian women. Often coming to Ireland, while in labor. In 2016, blacks were reported to be 3.3% of the 10-14 age bracket.
-Child benefit (until age 17) is paid at double the normal rate, per child, if you have triplets. Whether it is through their naturally higher rates of twinning (due to being more r-selected) or IVF, an outsized number of these payouts seem to be Nigerians.
-In 2016, 35% of the rental supplement was paid to non-citizens (how many non-Irish?), despite a severe housing shortage.
-There are 250,000 applications for citizenship, asylum and visas in Ireland each year, according to a statement made by the minister of justice in 2018.
-From 2011 to 2016, daily Irish speakers decreased >11%, down to a paltry 20,586.
-In 2014, 25% of children were born to non-citizen mothers. While 25%, were born to non-Irish (probably really non-citizen) fathers.
https://t.me/s/OrlaredChan
I remember my Dad dedicating his rosary to the "restoration of Ireland as the Isle of saints and scholars". It doesn't seem like that is likely any time soon, that's for sure. It makes me think I should see it soon before it becomes less Irish than it already is.Replies: @songbird
Call me a stickler, but I’m going to have to go with: no, it isn’t.
One of the reasons the scientific approach is so useful is that it allows you to eliminate hypotheses. If you’ve successfully disproven – “discredited” – one idea, you don’t have to keep thinking about it. Of course, it’s best when several people independently disprove it, that way you can have more confidence that crucial details weren’t overlooked, but in general, once you are satisfied that something has been disproven, you can confidently move on.
Also, I consider myself open-minded too. A skeptic, certainly, but an open-minded skeptic. I think a world in which the paranormal is real would be much more exciting than one in which it isn’t. (A bit unsettling too, I suppose, but I think I could live with that.) I’m not opposed on principle. I don’t even need anything like total certainty to decide one way or the other, it’s just that the evidence I’ve seen proffered so far hasn’t met even my relatively low bar. Other people, with even lower bars, evidently feel differently.
Actually, that’s an argument I recently heard made on one of the Catholic apologist podcasts I listen to. It’s one of the better theistic arguments I’ve come across. It doesn’t prove anything, but it does a fine job of turning a favorite atheistic line of reasoning back against them.
Theists are often accused of retreating into “God of the gaps” territory – as science has removed the need for “God” explanations for various phenomena, theists retreats to claiming only God can explain the various remaining gaps in scientific knowledge. The argument asks the atheist what he would consider sufficient proof of God, and it maintains that no matter what answer is given, the answer will in some way take on a “God of the gaps” form. If the atheist experienced the proof of God’s existence that he claims would convince him, he’d be left arguing that the experience was so out of the ordinary that he has no way of explaining it, therefore it must have been God – ie a God of the gaps.
I don't think science can claim that anything at any time is decisively "disproven", only that at that time there isn't sufficient evidence to meet this bar. But the situation is evolving and changing and science must be prepared to revisit old theories.
Science is also highly "political" - like all human endeavors - and suffers fashions, fads, and ideologies, and what one generation is unwilling to accept might be taken up by another.
"Evidence", also, is mediated by assumptions.
If your goal is "power" that can be relied with absolute certainty and repeatability, you may disregard whole realms of reality.
There is nothing wrong with certain power - I like to know my airplane will reliably fly - but when this leads me to then claim that what doesn't give me this power isn't real, or has no value - you're condemning yourself to live in a vastly smaller world and simply closing your eyes to reality.
And as far as I can see, the only motive for this kind of "certainty" can be fear, a desire for safety, loss of nerve - remember we are talking about the demand for only certainty, not certainty as one among many values - and the same kind of mentality that results in the smothering atmosphere of bureaucracy.
But a bold person comfortable with risk might well wish to dwell with uncertainty and see what fascinating things he might discover, and originally science was a leap into the unknown (away from the comforting certainties of scholastic philosophy).
But if the demand for certainty as the only value went through several waves of "acceleration" in modern culture, this might well indicate an increasing loss of nerve and lessening of vitality of the kind that we clearly see reaches a peak in our demotivated and devitalized times with our obsession with safety.
In terms of the paranormal, for instance, paranormal beings might simply not wish to lend themselves to repeatable experiments that can "pin them down" - the elves were always known as "fey" and tricksy, after all - and it seems like madness to insist they absolutely don't exist on this flimsy basis.
This is what I mean that modern science got stuck in a narrow tunnel and lost sight of the bigger picture and the magnificent world.
We live impoverished intellectual lives today. Yes, but nothing can truly be proved - even the most rigorous science rests on unproven assumptions, and the very categories which we use to think about the world (time, causality, etc) cannot be proven and philosophers have even shown they contradict each other :)
We cannot escape from the "burden" of choosing which assumptions we will accept as primary and unproven ("ontological primitives") at the start of our thinking, and we may have to finally face up to this fact.
Modern culture hides the need for metaphysical choice because our metaphysical assumptions are so deeply embedded that we no longer see them as choices - they are simply part of the background.
When I speak to secular atheist friends, they often deny they have any metaphysical assumptions - when I point out the unproven assumptions that lie beneath their secular atheism the honest ones are surprised.
The "modern project" attempted to put human knowledge on a foundation of certainty - everything was going to be provable.
This project collapsed in the beginning of the 20th century, but we just haven't faced up to it.
Just as originally science burst onto the scene by examining the unproven assumptions of medieval culture, so to our next step forward will be to examine the unproven assumptions of science that construct us now.
I don't find the idea of God any more "absurd" than the idea that the universe in it's infinite complexity came about purely as a matter of chance. Both systems require a faith or credulity of sorts, atheists are just loath to call it that. The cascading probabilities of infinitely culminating accidents actually seems more fantastic to my own mind.
Any atheistic account of material creation still does not account for a prime mover, so even ideas like the big bang don't explain where that initial super compressed point of matter arose from.
As a side point, I actually find it interesting how the figurative language in the creation narrative of Genesis mirrors what science believes the early stages and progression of the universe could have looked like. I'm not a young earth creationist by any stretch, so if one sees the 7 days as figurative spans of time, it really gets the progression right on.
I have had enough"paranormal" experiences personally to be quite certain that there is considerably more than the physical plane. I can't offer any hard definitions of exactly how it all works, but that is hardly surprising considering it is dealing with matters literally outside of normal human frames of reference. It brings to mind when the disciples were pestering Jesus about the next world and he told them (perhaps with a raised eyebrow) "If I have spoken to you earthly things, and you believe not; how will you believe, if I shall speak to you heavenly things?"
On perception of the spiritual, I would say that our current society puts up massive barriers. The constant stimulation and rush doesn't provide the space for other, more subtle things to come through. I've often observed that people are so in their own heads that they fail to notice all sorts of normal physical things. A spectacular sunset, the incredible chaos of shapes in a forest of bare trees, etc. all go frequently unnoticed because people don't make the space to really see them.
Perception is also sharpened with practice. I can see all sorts of things by eye, such as whether something is level and straight, or the identification of wood species by a bit of bark or grain pattern. Sometimes people act as though it's some incredible feat but it's really not, it's just a training of perception. So too with spiritual sight. It take attention and practice, which are things we moderns are loath to give when comfortable distraction is much more gratifying.
To use AaronB's terminology, I am probably too "left brained" for my own good and so I feel that I am personally lacking in spiritual sight. My wife and some of the kids see much more than I do. My eldest daughter particularly sees things on the spiritual plane like my wife does. So I think there is strong factor of some people being more gifted than others in their spiritual perception, much like I was always handy with taking things apart and putting them back together. We come with certain strengths and weaknesses baked in. Our society definitely defaults to ways of thinking and seeing that are exclusive of the spiritual and this heavily weights the equation of what we do see or even try to see.Replies: @RSDB
I believe that anxiety and depression on the other hand, have increased dramatically. Partly I think it is because many people have the ability to indulge these destructive attitudes, which increases and deepens their hold. I think there is a benefit to having to being compelled by life's realities to "get over it" when it comes to our own existential insecurities. This is less and less expected by society, so inclined individuals are enabled to indulge their morbid fascination with themselves.
We have also dismantled many of the structures which kept these feelings in check. Religion often provided a useful sense of perspective (It's not all about you!), and community and cultural identity gave the majority of individuals a comforting baseline to default to. As much as anything I think it's very difficult psychically to expect every person to be a self-defining self-actualizing individual. There are always some who break the mold in any age, but I think the majority of people need and want guidelines. The absence of these in society can lead to feelings of drift and anxiety. This is true, and I think that it does lead to a greater incidence of negative traits being passed on. I'm not sure that this is a net kindness since it seems to entail a downward spiral as society is increasingly structured around the unwell. It seems to me that one could make a compelling "anti-vax" argument on these grounds. I'm not sure I would agree with it ethically, but I think it would be a compelling argument.
If we ever have a large scale collapse resulting from over-extended modern resource management I wouldn't be surprised if all the avoided premature deaths and resulting population explosion will be just an act of kicking the can down the road.Replies: @AaronB, @silviosilver, @Mikel
This is very much the view that I take. To tell people thrown into a world neither of their making nor of their choosing that their individual autonomy is the most important aspect of their existence and on this basis to leave them to sink or swim, by their own efforts to find meaning or to fail to, is a recipe for producing neither happy societies nor happy individuals. It is little wonder that, while people in other ages may have pondered whether there is life after death, many people in our own age are burdened by the additional, more immediate, question of whether there is life after birth.
I probably haven't been following the details as closely as many other people, but I wonder if you're correct. My impression is that although lots of pro-Russian activists (e.g. Karlin, the Saker) made rather grandiose predictions about how quickly Russia would win, the Russian government itself never said such things. So perhaps some of those pundits have been discredited, but I'm not sure if the Russians themselves have been.
My impression is that the Russians did indeed hope that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse and they'd win very quickly, but they merely viewed this as a good possibility worth attempting rather than something with high likelihood. So their daring airborne assault on Kiev was repulsed with considerable casualties, and they got a bloody nose. But that happens with lots of ultimately successful military ventures.
Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Johnson all seem like experienced military experts, and when I've listened to their accounts, even quite recently, they seem to think Russian victory was almost assured. Indeed, Macgregor's concern was that when the Ukrainian side collapses, the American government may be so horrified at the collapse of its ridiculous propaganda-bubble that it might do something dangerous:
https://youtu.be/38hPs23WAxM
Larry Johnson also had a good podcast interview a few days ago:
https://www.unz.com/CONTENTS/AUDIO/kbarrett/KB-TJ_2022-0414_johnson_web.mp3
Maybe Macgregor and all the others are completely wrong, but why do you think that? The facts will soon enough become apparent one way or the other, so what would Macgregor, Ritter, Johnson, and others have to gain by lies or distortions.
The key factor to keep in mind is that the Western MSM landscape is 100% pro-Ukraine, as extreme as anything I've ever seen, so all information is being presented on a totally tilted floor. That tilt must be taken into account when evaluating what's really going on.
Meanwhile, the actual results of the war are completely independent of that propaganda battle, except insofar as it persuades NATO to give lots of weapons to the Ukrainians.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Mikhail, @Peripatetic Commenter, @A123, @Mikel, @Yevardian
Thanks. Although in fairness, anonymous internet comment sections aren’t a high bar to vault in that respect.
Anyway. I wouldn’t not characterise my view of ‘military failure’, certainly I think Russia will eventually reach its objectives, if not its maximal ones, and certainly not at the cost it had expected.
I would say Russia initially entered Ukraine with relatively modest aims (decapitation of the current Ukrainian government, destruction of its military, elimination of any hopes of it ever joining NATO, etc.) but without claims to any insider knowledge whatsoever, I’m absolutely sure that Russia expected several orders of magnitude less of both the Ukrainian resistance and the vituperativeness of near-unanimous Western reaction, financial and diplomatic.
So for that reason, I think the Z-War (sorry, I can’t think of it any other terms now) to be anywhere near worth its unforeseen costs, Russia would need to take significantly more than just the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts, which given the destruction they have or will soon suffer, are going to be net-negatives on Russia for a very long time.
My concerns are more about economic and political challenges Russia will be facing. Russia is not nearly as autarkic as the USSR was, even accounting for its far smaller size. There has already a very large exodus of skilled people from the country since February, exacerbating an already existing problem. Because of the post-Soviet collapse of the education system during the 90s (it has not been fixed), there’s long been a shortage of skilled Russian labour generally.
As for individuals like Saker, Karlin, Andrei Martyanov, Shamir, Dmitri Orlov, and other Russians writing primarily for an English audience, yes, its very true that made much more triumphalist claims than the Russian government made to their domestic audience.
But you could also still see how the biggest official ‘court’ media personalities like Solovyev were full of bluster about Ukraine instantly collapsing the same way Georgia did in 2007, turning to mild unease, to despair and finally anger, over a few weeks. Again, looking at Russian media aimed at a Russian audience, from Strelkov/Gurkhin to Yuri Podolyaka to Nikolai Starikov to blogger ‘Colonel Cassad’, they are not painting a rosy picture. Most of them are still confident Russia will win in Ukraine and even long-term with the West, but the mood is much more grim determination than ‘we’re tired of winning!’ rhetoric.
An intelligent ex-commenter to this website who grew up in the USSR, ‘Glossy’ who I occasionally interact with elsewhere, is also quite pessimistic. ‘utu’ has also made some points, though he’s obviously an extreme partisan, I don’t think he’s stupid or dishonest.
Well, I listened to Ritter (I haven’t heard of the others), and as I said, he was much more moderate in his claims than expected, nor was he the Kremlin-shill I expected him to be. His closing comments that the American administration would alter its approach to Ukrainian problems in a less ‘zero-sum’ manner, with voices of people like William Burns replacing those of Victoria Nuland were hopeful, but I’m not sure if America is ready to return to a pre-Clinton worldview. But you obviously know far more of the American side of things.
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html That's the thing. None of them---Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others---come across as "Kremlin shills" because they aren't. They're sober Western military experts, and what they're saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven't worked out, they've become demoralized. I think you'd be better off listening to the people I mentioned.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa, @utu
But in terms of some kind of "objective strategic benefit" that you present to a rational citizen - Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament. All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian
No security guarantees aren’t the equivalent of NATO membership, this rests on the absurd idea NATO is a defensive alliance, Russia’s issue is the basing of foreign troops and weapons on Ukrainian soil hence why Russia insists on the clause banning this, but is unperturbed by foreign guarantees.
Reality is the Ukrainian military has suffered horrendous losses of trained personnel and equipment, they are being reduced to cannon fodder conscripts and outdated weapons they can’t use. The economic situation is dire and deteriorating, for both the Ukraine and their sponsors. It is over and has been for a while.
The Russian generals dawdled launching the current Donbass offensive, which suggests they are reluctant because they believe attaining the objectives of the advance will be quite a challenge and their careers will be ended be any failure. They would be much happier with the Ukrainians attacking; that is what they they are trained and equipped for. I happen to think the Ukrainians generals see this war as an opportunity for personal aggrandizement, and they love that the Russians are attacking.Replies: @LondonBob
NATO has demonstrated they are no match to Russia fighting on Russian borders.
Biden has seen his approval ratings to continue to plummet, the far more savvy Trump has publicly called for a negotiated peace, JD Vance has surged in Ohio adopting such a position, pressuring the whole GOP.
Russian generals are limiting losses and working on further attrition, given the uptick in surrenders it is working.
The Ukrainian generals are looking at pocketing cash from sales of Western equipment to Arms dealers, they know this is over.
Biden too. The decision making is going to be weighted towards the politically expedient, see George Beede's talk from a couple of days ago . Russia's borders is not where America would pick to fight the Russian Army , but I think the chance of Putin trying to invade a Nato country is was very small before the war, and is much less now. I think if pushed into a corner Russia might hit bases in Poland with missiles It would be difficult to do worse that they did when attacking Kiev. That the army is working better now does not show it is capable of a panzer drive a la Guderian pre the halt at Smolensk. General Alexander Dvornikov may show a Von Bock in front of Moscow style flash of genius, but the help the US will provide is going to increase by an order of magnitude if the Russian offensive looks like it might succeed; I'm talking about a thousand kamikaze drones including ones that can go 60 miles and destroy artillery and amour, closer in counter battery radar combined with real time intel courtesy of American surveillance, which literally knows every move the Russians make (the CIA chief went to Ukraine weeks before the war specially told Kiev about the plan to take Hostomel Airport, so knew about it long before the VDV probably. Interesting. There are many NLAWs in Ukraine for every Russian tank in the invasion force, and no accounting for what happens to the NLAWs ECT after they are delivered, so it is all too believable that some of these now much-sought-after weapons will be sold on the black market. Yet the surfeit hardly show that the potential for Ukraine to get far more and less defensive weapons than they already have does not exist.
The security guarantee Zelensky says he needs to be "neutral" is equivalent to the the main Nato membership benefit of Nato for members, namely America fighting anyone who attacks the member. America in not going to give that , and even if they did Putin cannot accept that kind of pseudo neutrality, so it is very difficult to see how this war ends any time soon. It could have ended with a victory in a few weeks, but now a Korean war stalemate seems very likely. Just as the US lost the war in North Korea, Russia lost in West Ukraine. Just as the US used massive firepower to make slow but sure gains while losing non-trivial amounts of infantry and did not try to go into North Korea again, the most likely outcome is the Russian offensive will fizzle out. If it looks like it will succeed in boxing in the Ukrainian army in Donbass and holding the there (no easy matter because most of the Ukrainian armed forces will have nothing else to to but attack from the West and the Russian will be fighting on two narrowly separated fronts in the middle of the country).
There were less than twenty casualties at Hostomel, despite the VDV being repeatedly attacked before the support arrived.
The great saver of human life Putin himself publicly called off the greatly succesfuly ongoing storming of Azovians while rather nervously moving his own feet and eyes:
https://tass.ru/politika/14433663
One of the reasons the scientific approach is so useful is that it allows you to eliminate hypotheses. If you've successfully disproven - "discredited" - one idea, you don't have to keep thinking about it. Of course, it's best when several people independently disprove it, that way you can have more confidence that crucial details weren't overlooked, but in general, once you are satisfied that something has been disproven, you can confidently move on.
Also, I consider myself open-minded too. A skeptic, certainly, but an open-minded skeptic. I think a world in which the paranormal is real would be much more exciting than one in which it isn't. (A bit unsettling too, I suppose, but I think I could live with that.) I'm not opposed on principle. I don't even need anything like total certainty to decide one way or the other, it's just that the evidence I've seen proffered so far hasn't met even my relatively low bar. Other people, with even lower bars, evidently feel differently. Actually, that's an argument I recently heard made on one of the Catholic apologist podcasts I listen to. It's one of the better theistic arguments I've come across. It doesn't prove anything, but it does a fine job of turning a favorite atheistic line of reasoning back against them.
Theists are often accused of retreating into "God of the gaps" territory - as science has removed the need for "God" explanations for various phenomena, theists retreats to claiming only God can explain the various remaining gaps in scientific knowledge. The argument asks the atheist what he would consider sufficient proof of God, and it maintains that no matter what answer is given, the answer will in some way take on a "God of the gaps" form. If the atheist experienced the proof of God's existence that he claims would convince him, he'd be left arguing that the experience was so out of the ordinary that he has no way of explaining it, therefore it must have been God - ie a God of the gaps.Replies: @AaronB, @Coconuts, @Barbarossa
Fair enough, but most of the things modern science considers untrue have not been “disproven”, they simply haven’t been proven with the level of certainty and repeatability that is the goal of modern science.
I don’t think science can claim that anything at any time is decisively “disproven”, only that at that time there isn’t sufficient evidence to meet this bar. But the situation is evolving and changing and science must be prepared to revisit old theories.
Science is also highly “political” – like all human endeavors – and suffers fashions, fads, and ideologies, and what one generation is unwilling to accept might be taken up by another.
“Evidence”, also, is mediated by assumptions.
If your goal is “power” that can be relied with absolute certainty and repeatability, you may disregard whole realms of reality.
There is nothing wrong with certain power – I like to know my airplane will reliably fly – but when this leads me to then claim that what doesn’t give me this power isn’t real, or has no value – you’re condemning yourself to live in a vastly smaller world and simply closing your eyes to reality.
And as far as I can see, the only motive for this kind of “certainty” can be fear, a desire for safety, loss of nerve – remember we are talking about the demand for only certainty, not certainty as one among many values – and the same kind of mentality that results in the smothering atmosphere of bureaucracy.
But a bold person comfortable with risk might well wish to dwell with uncertainty and see what fascinating things he might discover, and originally science was a leap into the unknown (away from the comforting certainties of scholastic philosophy).
But if the demand for certainty as the only value went through several waves of “acceleration” in modern culture, this might well indicate an increasing loss of nerve and lessening of vitality of the kind that we clearly see reaches a peak in our demotivated and devitalized times with our obsession with safety.
In terms of the paranormal, for instance, paranormal beings might simply not wish to lend themselves to repeatable experiments that can “pin them down” – the elves were always known as “fey” and tricksy, after all – and it seems like madness to insist they absolutely don’t exist on this flimsy basis.
This is what I mean that modern science got stuck in a narrow tunnel and lost sight of the bigger picture and the magnificent world.
We live impoverished intellectual lives today.
Yes, but nothing can truly be proved – even the most rigorous science rests on unproven assumptions, and the very categories which we use to think about the world (time, causality, etc) cannot be proven and philosophers have even shown they contradict each other 🙂
We cannot escape from the “burden” of choosing which assumptions we will accept as primary and unproven (“ontological primitives”) at the start of our thinking, and we may have to finally face up to this fact.
Modern culture hides the need for metaphysical choice because our metaphysical assumptions are so deeply embedded that we no longer see them as choices – they are simply part of the background.
When I speak to secular atheist friends, they often deny they have any metaphysical assumptions – when I point out the unproven assumptions that lie beneath their secular atheism the honest ones are surprised.
The “modern project” attempted to put human knowledge on a foundation of certainty – everything was going to be provable.
This project collapsed in the beginning of the 20th century, but we just haven’t faced up to it.
Just as originally science burst onto the scene by examining the unproven assumptions of medieval culture, so to our next step forward will be to examine the unproven assumptions of science that construct us now.
One of the reasons the scientific approach is so useful is that it allows you to eliminate hypotheses. If you've successfully disproven - "discredited" - one idea, you don't have to keep thinking about it. Of course, it's best when several people independently disprove it, that way you can have more confidence that crucial details weren't overlooked, but in general, once you are satisfied that something has been disproven, you can confidently move on.
Also, I consider myself open-minded too. A skeptic, certainly, but an open-minded skeptic. I think a world in which the paranormal is real would be much more exciting than one in which it isn't. (A bit unsettling too, I suppose, but I think I could live with that.) I'm not opposed on principle. I don't even need anything like total certainty to decide one way or the other, it's just that the evidence I've seen proffered so far hasn't met even my relatively low bar. Other people, with even lower bars, evidently feel differently. Actually, that's an argument I recently heard made on one of the Catholic apologist podcasts I listen to. It's one of the better theistic arguments I've come across. It doesn't prove anything, but it does a fine job of turning a favorite atheistic line of reasoning back against them.
Theists are often accused of retreating into "God of the gaps" territory - as science has removed the need for "God" explanations for various phenomena, theists retreats to claiming only God can explain the various remaining gaps in scientific knowledge. The argument asks the atheist what he would consider sufficient proof of God, and it maintains that no matter what answer is given, the answer will in some way take on a "God of the gaps" form. If the atheist experienced the proof of God's existence that he claims would convince him, he'd be left arguing that the experience was so out of the ordinary that he has no way of explaining it, therefore it must have been God - ie a God of the gaps.Replies: @AaronB, @Coconuts, @Barbarossa
I think I used to read the blog of the guy who came up with that one, some years ago, when blogs and New Atheism were still bigger things.
After acres of debate about evidence etc. you would arrive at the conclusion that given a certain set of epistemological and metaphysical priors, nothing could count as evidence for God, there were grounds to reject, more or less a priori, anything that could be put forward. So as amateur philosophers, we were reaching the stage of medieval times, sometimes the 18th century.
Often Evidentialism is an informal statement of this sort of collection of priors, with some extra rhetorical content. You would have hallucinations, aliens, powerful spiritual beings that lacked all of the God qualities (i.e. Q from Star Trek), and the killer argument, brute facts.
Some of the strength of the evidentialist position probably came from the fact that in that period politics was mostly managerial, there were no major debates or doubts about fundamental values, and the main enemy were Islamic extremists, whom Britain and the US were actually at war with; sovereign is the one who determines the exception.
Go outside and look around. If you think it's an accident of a big bang you have maybe got a problem.
Wimbledon has banned all players holding a Russian citizenship.
What a shithole of a country Britain has become.
The most worthless people in Western Europe, easily. No surprise they’re also the biggest zionist apologists as well.
Restrictions like this have only happened in world wars, which says a lot about how the West see Russia at the moment.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
My go to explanation is economics. I would theorize it is because people are starting to feel the inflation, rather than because normies are waking up.
Unfortunately, there is no popular, based streaming service to test economic trends in streaming services.Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon
This, plus piracy cutting what you need to pay for streaming to zero, assuming you still have a dependence on woke-infused pop-culture trash. Some of the relative normies are starting to withdraw from that like A123 said, with the proliferation of alternative “based” content.
Anyway. I wouldn't not characterise my view of 'military failure', certainly I think Russia will eventually reach its objectives, if not its maximal ones, and certainly not at the cost it had expected. I would say Russia initially entered Ukraine with relatively modest aims (decapitation of the current Ukrainian government, destruction of its military, elimination of any hopes of it ever joining NATO, etc.) but without claims to any insider knowledge whatsoever, I'm absolutely sure that Russia expected several orders of magnitude less of both the Ukrainian resistance and the vituperativeness of near-unanimous Western reaction, financial and diplomatic.
So for that reason, I think the Z-War (sorry, I can't think of it any other terms now) to be anywhere near worth its unforeseen costs, Russia would need to take significantly more than just the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts, which given the destruction they have or will soon suffer, are going to be net-negatives on Russia for a very long time.My concerns are more about economic and political challenges Russia will be facing. Russia is not nearly as autarkic as the USSR was, even accounting for its far smaller size. There has already a very large exodus of skilled people from the country since February, exacerbating an already existing problem. Because of the post-Soviet collapse of the education system during the 90s (it has not been fixed), there's long been a shortage of skilled Russian labour generally.As for individuals like Saker, Karlin, Andrei Martyanov, Shamir, Dmitri Orlov, and other Russians writing primarily for an English audience, yes, its very true that made much more triumphalist claims than the Russian government made to their domestic audience.
But you could also still see how the biggest official 'court' media personalities like Solovyev were full of bluster about Ukraine instantly collapsing the same way Georgia did in 2007, turning to mild unease, to despair and finally anger, over a few weeks. Again, looking at Russian media aimed at a Russian audience, from Strelkov/Gurkhin to Yuri Podolyaka to Nikolai Starikov to blogger 'Colonel Cassad', they are not painting a rosy picture. Most of them are still confident Russia will win in Ukraine and even long-term with the West, but the mood is much more grim determination than 'we're tired of winning!' rhetoric.
An intelligent ex-commenter to this website who grew up in the USSR, 'Glossy' who I occasionally interact with elsewhere, is also quite pessimistic. 'utu' has also made some points, though he's obviously an extreme partisan, I don't think he's stupid or dishonest. Well, I listened to Ritter (I haven't heard of the others), and as I said, he was much more moderate in his claims than expected, nor was he the Kremlin-shill I expected him to be. His closing comments that the American administration would alter its approach to Ukrainian problems in a less 'zero-sum' manner, with voices of people like William Burns replacing those of Victoria Nuland were hopeful, but I'm not sure if America is ready to return to a pre-Clinton worldview. But you obviously know far more of the American side of things.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Dmitry
Sure, I certainly tend to agree with that. It’s clear that the Ukrainians have fought much harder than anyone expected, and the utterly hysterical Western reaction has been astonishing to me, so I’d assumed that the Russians were also surprised. For the West to simply seize Russian assets and even the assets of private Russian citizens is totally unprecedented, and probably self-destructive since it destroys the credibility of the dollar, one of America’s greatest strategic assets.
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html
That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
Sober?
https://twitter.com/VatnikCoPe/status/1516038654858174471?t=YC9Il9jUYOTVvR9muPWyEA&s=19Replies: @Wokechoke
What a shithole of a country Britain has become.
The most worthless people in Western Europe, easily. No surprise they're also the biggest zionist apologists as well.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
If they bar people based on citizenship vs residency, then they are actually helping Russia by making exile a less enticing option – there are now things you can’t do wherever you are because of your nationality, even if you are deeply against the war.
Restrictions like this have only happened in world wars, which says a lot about how the West see Russia at the moment.
Their job is to strike deep into the enemy's rear and generally fuck things up badly.
That is what the strikes around Kiev were about. And they managed to withdraw with limited casualties.
Слава России
Also, see this video on the VDV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su2OfiqGgRkReplies: @A123
If you are correct, then the action goes in the category of “good tactics / bad strategy”. Removing the OMGroup from Kiev gave the Ukrainian Propaganda Corps a huge gift:
“And Lo. Zelensky did stand upon the Mountain in Kiev. The Russians who looked upon him were burned by the Light of Zelensky as their Souls were impure. And Thus, the Unclean ones fled from the Light to escape the Flames of Righteousness. Yea. Verily. Zelensky’s name shall be a Blessing upon all those who Speak it.”
OK… The propaganda is not quite that extreme, but you get the point. As “Saviour of Kiev”, Zelensky has been elevated to larger than life status as “Hero of the People”.
How does Putin achieve an armistice with someone who may be elevated to Sainthood before the end of the year?
PEACE 😇
All the useless Western Talking Heads have claimed that Russia is only days away from running out of resources and have been doing it almost from the start and we are now, what, 57 days in.
Maybe Putin wants the complete destruction of Zelensky and his puppet masters. It seems, at this stage, Putin will achieve that.
Despite all the claims that the Ukrainians have put up a heroic fight as the feisty underdogs, it seems they are reduced to using civilian vehicles to transport their troops and Western weapons, and Russia has an ever increasing arsenal of Western ATGMs etc.
Biden has seen his approval ratings to continue to plummet, the far more savvy Trump has publicly called for a negotiated peace, JD Vance has surged in Ohio adopting such a position, pressuring the whole GOP.
Russian generals are limiting losses and working on further attrition, given the uptick in surrenders it is working.
The Ukrainian generals are looking at pocketing cash from sales of Western equipment to Arms dealers, they know this is over.Replies: @Sean
Biden too. The decision making is going to be weighted towards the politically expedient, see George Beede’s talk from a couple of days ago .
Russia’s borders is not where America would pick to fight the Russian Army , but I think the chance of Putin trying to invade a Nato country is was very small before the war, and is much less now. I think if pushed into a corner Russia might hit bases in Poland with missiles
It would be difficult to do worse that they did when attacking Kiev. That the army is working better now does not show it is capable of a panzer drive a la Guderian pre the halt at Smolensk. General Alexander Dvornikov may show a Von Bock in front of Moscow style flash of genius, but the help the US will provide is going to increase by an order of magnitude if the Russian offensive looks like it might succeed; I’m talking about a thousand kamikaze drones including ones that can go 60 miles and destroy artillery and amour, closer in counter battery radar combined with real time intel courtesy of American surveillance, which literally knows every move the Russians make (the CIA chief went to Ukraine weeks before the war specially told Kiev about the plan to take Hostomel Airport, so knew about it long before the VDV probably.
Interesting. There are many NLAWs in Ukraine for every Russian tank in the invasion force, and no accounting for what happens to the NLAWs ECT after they are delivered, so it is all too believable that some of these now much-sought-after weapons will be sold on the black market. Yet the surfeit hardly show that the potential for Ukraine to get far more and less defensive weapons than they already have does not exist.
The security guarantee Zelensky says he needs to be “neutral” is equivalent to the the main Nato membership benefit of Nato for members, namely America fighting anyone who attacks the member. America in not going to give that , and even if they did Putin cannot accept that kind of pseudo neutrality, so it is very difficult to see how this war ends any time soon. It could have ended with a victory in a few weeks, but now a Korean war stalemate seems very likely. Just as the US lost the war in North Korea, Russia lost in West Ukraine. Just as the US used massive firepower to make slow but sure gains while losing non-trivial amounts of infantry and did not try to go into North Korea again, the most likely outcome is the Russian offensive will fizzle out. If it looks like it will succeed in boxing in the Ukrainian army in Donbass and holding the there (no easy matter because most of the Ukrainian armed forces will have nothing else to to but attack from the West and the Russian will be fighting on two narrowly separated fronts in the middle of the country).
(Chuckle)
Was that intentional word crafting? Or, purely instictual?
Either way…very good.
PEACE 😇
Well, even I know that the complete encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in the east will probably spell complete disaster for these troops, so I’m sure that those Ukrainian military strategists that are assigned to monitoring this theater of war know this as well, and are doing everything that they can to avoid this situation. Any updates today?
Well, to be fair to Zelensky, he did come out on television, walking around outside like on the third day, when things were chaotic not at all clear and told Putler that he was still in Kyiv and wasn’t planning to run away, that he was staying for the long haul. The contrast between him dressed in his olive green tee shirt and military fatigue type pants and Putler dressed in his white shirt and tie, corporate western style couldn’t be more vivid.
BTW, I’ve wondered about you and who you’re actually backing in this war? Don’t tell me that you’re going to be completely neutral about this and let it all play out where it will. I wouldn’t believe you for a second, you couldn’t possibly be neutral about all of this and yet be so completely absorbed on a daily basis by it all? I’d guess that you’re a closet Putlerite, although I’m not 100% sure of this, and so that’s why I’m asking you directly. 🙂
ISLAM -- Muslims are engaged in Jihad Invasion of Europe. WEF Elites are key to this, especially the despicable George IslamoSoros. SJW Islam organized the fight in Ukraine to maxize the quantity of invaders entering the EU.
Their strategy is prolonging this fight as long as possible. Ukraine will be given enough arms to keep fighting. However, these contributions will be carefully limited to ensure that they never have enough to win.
It also throws off side benefits. Former Rothschild banker and SJW Islamic advocate Macron was able to act as a statesman between Ukraine and Russia. As an armistice would not serve the Muslim invasion, the staged events produced no results. However, Macron gained prestige for the "attempt".
CHRISTIANITY -- Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians have no good reason to fight. They have been manipulated into this war by Woke-slam.
If things could be undone, the optimal choice would be avoiding this fight entirely. The best option now is for Christians to stop killing Christians as soon as possible. That would allow Christian Europe to refocus on the horror of the Great Replacement.
_____
I originally thought that Zelensky was a willing accomplice to George IslamoSoros. So, you can find some posting history where I blamed Ukraine. As I obtained more information, I now realize that Zelensky was duped by Taqiyya deception from The IslamoSoros.
Alas, I cannot unpost those earlier, errant charges. I do retract them.
_____
I find your black-white take on the situation problematic. Trying to portray everything Ukraine does as "Good" and everything Russia does as "Evil", unnecessarily hardens your position.
It took days to get a grudging admission that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians in Crimea by by building a dam. And, even now I believe that you see targeting civilians in Crimea as "Good". The civilians are "Evil" for daring to break away from Kiev rule, and thus deserve to be targeted and punished. Is kicking the weak "Good", when the weak being kicked are "Evil"?
I recommend stepping back and taking a look at the larger picture. The SJW Islamic WEF will never allow Ukraine to win. That does not serve their anti-Western assault, and Woke-slam has sufficient influence to prevent such a victory. Ukrainians as a whole, yourself included, need to focus on obtaining an armistice, so that Christians stop dying. That is an achievable goal that would confound those who created this war.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
Restrictions like this have only happened in world wars, which says a lot about how the West see Russia at the moment.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
The only time I remember such a tactic (private establishments “voluntarily” barring ostracized peoples even from coming to do business) being done outside of wholesale attack on the “axis of resistance” is against Apartheid. Which says the intolerance to anything Reactionary of a supposedly Liberal Globalist system.
The numbers being 1/4 to 1/3 non-Ukrainian plays out in almost all coverage, new or old.
Ukraine has an extension south from Odessa that makes Moldova landlocked. More affluent migrants quickly obtained boat transit directly from Turkey to Ukraine with vehicle support from their illicit landing sites to the Ukraine border. Money works, and running the West Coast of the Black Sea is distant from any combat zones.
Less affluent migrants are already transiting through Bulgaria and Romania in quantity. It will not take too much time for anti-Western NGO’s, such as the Open [Muslim] Society Foundation, to maximize land route throughput of Islamic migrants.
There are many Ukrainians who do not want to leave. They choose internal displacement near Lviv. Expect the percentage to escalate from merely 1/3 to over 1/2+ non-Ukrainian.
Remember, anti-Western WEF Elite’s created this war to generate MENA migration into the EU. They are not about to let it go to waste.
PEACE 😇
if u find english subs its a fantastic talk
cheers
“God of the gaps” is a term of art used by atheists. Which is sort of an oxymoron. What is the word god even doing in the vocabulary of an authentic atheist? What do they have to contribute to the topic?
Go outside and look around. If you think it’s an accident of a big bang you have maybe got a problem.
I see the current war as small part of a much larger conflict. Thus, I have a very different view of the sides — Christians versus Muslims.
ISLAM — Muslims are engaged in Jihad Invasion of Europe. WEF Elites are key to this, especially the despicable George IslamoSoros. SJW Islam organized the fight in Ukraine to maxize the quantity of invaders entering the EU.
Their strategy is prolonging this fight as long as possible. Ukraine will be given enough arms to keep fighting. However, these contributions will be carefully limited to ensure that they never have enough to win.
It also throws off side benefits. Former Rothschild banker and SJW Islamic advocate Macron was able to act as a statesman between Ukraine and Russia. As an armistice would not serve the Muslim invasion, the staged events produced no results. However, Macron gained prestige for the “attempt”.
CHRISTIANITY — Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians have no good reason to fight. They have been manipulated into this war by Woke-slam.
If things could be undone, the optimal choice would be avoiding this fight entirely. The best option now is for Christians to stop killing Christians as soon as possible. That would allow Christian Europe to refocus on the horror of the Great Replacement.
_____
I originally thought that Zelensky was a willing accomplice to George IslamoSoros. So, you can find some posting history where I blamed Ukraine. As I obtained more information, I now realize that Zelensky was duped by Taqiyya deception from The IslamoSoros.
Alas, I cannot unpost those earlier, errant charges. I do retract them.
_____
I find your black-white take on the situation problematic. Trying to portray everything Ukraine does as “Good” and everything Russia does as “Evil”, unnecessarily hardens your position.
It took days to get a grudging admission that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians in Crimea by by building a dam. And, even now I believe that you see targeting civilians in Crimea as “Good”. The civilians are “Evil” for daring to break away from Kiev rule, and thus deserve to be targeted and punished. Is kicking the weak “Good”, when the weak being kicked are “Evil”?
I recommend stepping back and taking a look at the larger picture. The SJW Islamic WEF will never allow Ukraine to win. That does not serve their anti-Western assault, and Woke-slam has sufficient influence to prevent such a victory. Ukrainians as a whole, yourself included, need to focus on obtaining an armistice, so that Christians stop dying. That is an achievable goal that would confound those who created this war.
PEACE 😇
A man in a position to have a better knowledge than all these 3 about the real situation of the Russian forces in Ukraine is Igor Strelkov, the Russian commander of the Donbass separatists in 2014. He may have some grudges against those who replaced him with Zakharchenko but there's hardly anyone with a deeper desire to have Russia militarily defeat Ukraine. He also correctly predicted in 2014 that eventually Russia would face itself with a war against the West.
Here's a Google translation of why he thinks that Russia will also fail in the second phase if it doesn't quickly go for a full mobilization:
-----
So, let's briefly assess the operational situation:
1. On our part: after the "successful completion of the first stage of the operation" (which ended in a large-scale RETREAT from the territory of the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions) - there is a redeployment and concentration of forces in the Donetsk sector of the front. Apparently (and according to the statements of the political leadership of the Russian Federation), it is here that it is planned to carry out the "second stage" and solve the problem of completely clearing the territory of the LDNR from enemy groups.
Obviously, the calculation is being made on the creation of two or three strike groups sufficient in number, which - with the concentrated support of all aviation forces and most of the artillery - will "grind" the opposing Ukrainian forces (which are still estimated for some reason not highly) and defeat them in one big battle.
2. On the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the plans of the command of the RF Armed Forces are well known to the enemy, and he - the enemy - does not at all consider the defeat of his grouping inevitable. On the contrary, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to defend themselves on their heavily fortified positions, relying on previously and newly created (the command of the RF Armed Forces provided them with enough time) fortified nodes in the alleged directions of the strike of the Russian troops (and they are obvious - it’s enough to look at the map).
We ask ourselves the question: does the superiority of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and heavy weapons guarantee victory over an enemy (for whom offensive plans are obvious) prepared for defense, with high morale? My answer is NO, not guaranteed.
Why? - I answer:
The "superiority" of the RF Armed Forces in aviation and artillery is very relative. Since the enemy has a well-equipped and numerous military air defense, which seriously limits the actions of tactical aviation, which is capable of supporting its troops on the battlefield. The enemy has an ADVANTAGE in the means of field and artillery reconnaissance (unmanned aerial vehicles of various classes are already almost at the platoon level). And its artillery has good weapons and well-trained personnel. And against the numerous Russian armored vehicles - the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in defense conditions) are quite capable due to the really huge amount of anti-tank weapons in the hands of the infantry (ATGM).
In conditions when Russian troops will have to storm one urban agglomeration after another, the amount of manpower comes to the fore. But in it, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR, alas, do not have a serious advantage.
Suppose, having overcome the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Izyum and in the Gulyai-Pole area, our troops begin to advance in converging directions.
Can they quickly unite in the deep rear of the Ukrainian grouping, creating ("according to the classics") two encirclement rings (external and internal)? With a guarantee that the enemy will not immediately break through them and create their own "cauldrons" for the attackers? (The Germans did this repeatedly in 1942 with our troops).
I express doubt. Why? - I answer: because this requires a LOT of units and formations, designed not only to break through, but also to firmly secure the territory. As well as a large number of supply units. If the enemy had few forces, the protection of communications could be partially ignored. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine (thanks to mobilizations) already have enough forces - comparable to the number of our troops in the theater. In addition, the enemy has the ability to shorten the front line and transfer the released forces to threatened areas - the Russian Federation does not have complete air supremacy simply because of the insufficient number of strike aircraft and the negligible number of strike drones. At the same time, the main the enemy can hold the front line near Donetsk with relatively small forces due to the excellent engineering equipment that has been produced for many years,
In this regard, I assume that the general lack of forces will not allow the Russian command to carry out "deep coverage in the area of the Dnieper (Ekaterinoslav). - There simply will not be enough forces for this. Therefore, the offensive will be carried out "along the shortest directions" - from the north - to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (maximum - on Barvenkovo), from the south - on the Ugledar-Kurakhovo line. Both of these lines of operation inevitably lead our troops to "sticking" into heavily fortified and occupied by large, pre-prepared for defense garrisons continuous urban agglomerations. the enemy is completely left with roads along which he will be able to supply his troops.
Thus, after some time in these areas, the situation will repeat itself, which already exists in the areas of Rubizhnoye-Severodonetsk, Popasnaya, Avdeevka and Marinka, where the Allied forces are moving forward very slowly and with very heavy losses (especially in the infantry). Or they don't advance at all (Avdeevka).
The enemy is "more than completely" satisfied with this method of warfare. Why? - Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine need another one and a half to two (maximum - three) months to prepare large reserves - not in the form of constant replenishment to the active troops (they continuously do this, maintaining the number of units directly involved in the battles at a fairly high level), but in the form of new units and formations that can be deployed in other strategic directions, while Russian forces "bleed", storming the fortified cities of Donbass.
In the worst case scenario, we may repeat a situation similar to the one that developed for the Wehrmacht during Operation Citadel (Kursk Bulge). While the Germans, slowly gnawing through the defense in depth of the Soviet troops, were losing time and wasting their accumulated reserves, the Soviet command concentrated to the north (near Belgorod and Orel) a large grouping of its own troops, not involved in the battle. And when she went on the offensive, it “suddenly became clear” that Germany did not have the strength to simultaneously continue Operation Citadel and repel the counteroffensive of Soviet troops. I had to curtail the operation and return the battered troops to their original positions. And then, in general, more or less organized (which the Germans did not succeed in everywhere) - to roll back beyond the Dnieper.
In this regard, I remind you that the so-called. "Ukraine" is finishing the THIRD STAGE OF GENERAL MOBILIZATION. It has a human resource (200-300 thousand people) and technical capability (a huge flow of various weapons from Europe and the USA) to not only maintain a sufficient number of its troops at the front, but also create new reserves. And to create them "in quantity" (even 100 thousand people - this is about 50 battalion tactical groups, including reinforcements and rear infrastructure - that is, about 10 full-blooded divisions).
And we have? We are recruiting for various PMCs, recruiting contract soldiers in the military registration and enlistment offices and ... that's all ... LDNR (in terms of mobilization) "swept clean" - and those "who else can be caught", God forbid, will be able to replenish already incurred and future losses.
Suppose it is possible (at the expense of PMCs) to create another 10 (even 20, which is unlikely) various kinds of detachments and BTGs. What next? The losses incurred in the Donbass (during the assault on the next "fortresses" they will definitely be VERY HIGH) will also need to be compensated somehow.
In general, HOW will the Russian command be able to "fend off" the concentration of fresh formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, on the borders of the Kursk and Belgorod regions in a month or two? And if they go on the offensive, how will they be repelled? Consolidated police detachments, detachments of "Alco-Cossacks" (all real Cossacks are already at the front) or the regional militia? So it - the regional militia - has not even been created yet !!! Nobody stutters...
Or did our military "agree in advance" with the enemy that he (the enemy) would behave strictly within the framework of the plans of our glorified General Staff? At the "first stage of the NWO" - somehow this did not work out "from the word at all." With sensitive losses for participants. And I don’t think that at the “second stage” it will be somehow different - the military men are obviously not going to act as “whipping boys”.
Thus, summing up, I note:
Without carrying out at least partial mobilization in the Russian Federation - to carry out deep strategic offensive operations on the so-called. "Ukraine" is both impossible and extremely dangerous. We need to prepare for a long and difficult war, which will require all the human resources that are mediocrely squandered now for the sake of "a flag over the next city council" (how quickly you can "change flags" - Gostomel and Bucha will not let you lie).
And - yes - I would very much like to be mistaken in my forecasts for the operation that has begun ("second stage"). But the pomp with which the hedonists, who have already pissed themselves off many times (in all fields), through and through false talkers and mediocrity, "present" it - does not inspire additional optimism in me. NO CONCLUSIONS have been drawn from the failures of the first two months - strategically.
https://t.me/s/igorstrelkovReplies: @Patronym
Rather than WW2 or Afghanistan, the analogy here might be to Vietnam, with Russia as North Vietnam, the DPR forces and Chechens as the Viet Cong, the Donbass and Kherson republics as the dominoes, the Kiev regime as Saigon, and NATO and the USA as France and the USA.
That was of course a very long war against a foreign puppet government.
Liberating the hostage Russian civilian population in the Donbass from Azov terror is correctly the first emergency priority. This effort evidently musters a lot of public support within Russia.
If the war continues on to liberate regions where the people have a more Ukrainian identity, hopefully ordinary civilians there will not be at risk of execution by extremists.
The gamble is whether the Ukrainian people will have the stomach for a long war, and how deeply felt is their Ukrainian identity. In the Vietnam war, the South Vietnamese identity and their corrupt democracy did not have broad and deep enough support within South Vietnam or the USA. However, this time there is the difference that Americans aren’t being drafted and their mainstream media are locked down tight. So far, the Western powers are ready to fight to the last Ukrainian. So it may hinge on the Ukrainians themselves, what price they are willing to pay to keep that pretty flag.
-30% of Brazilians in Ireland are LGBT. (BTW, Brazil supposedly has the highest murder rate in the world for trannies - which one would suppose is an accident of demographics more than anything else. One underappreciated cause of globohomo is the desire of gays to increase the amount of "meat" that is available to them among those with low socio-economic status. )
-From, 2011 to 2016, the number of Jews in Ireland quadrupled.
-Irish people are now a minority in two thirds of inner city North Dublin.
-In 1999, only 2% of births were to foreign nationals. By 2003, it was almost 20%. An estimated 70% were Nigerian women. Often coming to Ireland, while in labor. In 2016, blacks were reported to be 3.3% of the 10-14 age bracket.
-Child benefit (until age 17) is paid at double the normal rate, per child, if you have triplets. Whether it is through their naturally higher rates of twinning (due to being more r-selected) or IVF, an outsized number of these payouts seem to be Nigerians.
-In 2016, 35% of the rental supplement was paid to non-citizens (how many non-Irish?), despite a severe housing shortage.
-There are 250,000 applications for citizenship, asylum and visas in Ireland each year, according to a statement made by the minister of justice in 2018.
-From 2011 to 2016, daily Irish speakers decreased >11%, down to a paltry 20,586.
-In 2014, 25% of children were born to non-citizen mothers. While 25%, were born to non-Irish (probably really non-citizen) fathers.
https://t.me/s/OrlaredChanReplies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa, @Mikel
Interesting, but the top priority for the Irish gment, media and elite is to stir up sh.t between Russia and Ukraine and cheerlead the war. Nothing matters more, nothing about the actual Irish is important.
The public duality of not caring about one’s own and passionately “caring” about any group that is declared a “victim” is not all due to strategic and military spending aims. In Ireland those may play no role. What it displays is a combination of elite misanthropy and dead-end lifestyles of many ordinary people. It has created a vacuum in the West filled by pathological nihilism: forget about the actual biological family and instead fear climate, C19 or Greta. Or seek more stimulations by removing constraints on biological normalcy.
One good thing about the war is that it focuses minds on what matters. We may see both Ukrainians and Russians emerge more normal and grounded. For the West since they are only observers it could actually make the current nihilistic milieu worse.
But the Nigerians in Ireland will celebrate…I am starting to think that is a good thing. Looking at the Irish, can the Third-Worlders be worse? At least they lie for self-serving survival reasons, the Irish and Westerners choose lying and evasion as a way of life.
This is a really dumb move, IMO. Small countries cannot offer significant military aid, so having them onboard, doesn't really help with strategic efforts. But something very significant is lost, by letting them join the war party - the ability to act as go-betweens, and as advocates for a peaceful resolution. Birthright citizenship in Ireland was a loophole created by the peace process. There was a referendum in 2004, and the vote to close it was a landslide (though it hasn't stopped the invasion). The Irish people certainly never asked to be invaded, wokes aside.
What may be different about Ireland than other countries is the fact that in no other country has the same magnitude and weight of money been brought to bear, in order to try to corrupt it.
IMO, Eastern Europe really isn't different than Western, except in so far as history has differed. Southern Europe may actually be a bit less woke than Northern, on a natural or biological level, but, to look at it, there still seems to be a lot of Africans and Arabs around.Replies: @Coconuts
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html That's the thing. None of them---Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others---come across as "Kremlin shills" because they aren't. They're sober Western military experts, and what they're saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven't worked out, they've become demoralized. I think you'd be better off listening to the people I mentioned.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa, @utu
And….
A matter of style over substance, recalling the faded popularity of Michael Avenatti, Chris Christie, Corey Booker and the Cuomos.
Kiev strategists could still attempt to withdraw them, but that would be admitting a defeat in the war – Donbas plus more would be gone.
It looks like Kiev’s aim is to prolong the war and human losses be damned. Unfortunately it also looks like Russia’s goal is to keep the war going – it benefits them in many ways: domestically with the economic shock, internationally by keeping tensions high, in Ukraine by grinding down Ukies but not crossing the line into wanton mass killing – as Nato did in Iraq, Serbia, etc… This could go on for a while.
https://youtu.be/tnPG1v61AEkReplies: @Beckow, @Thrax
Gregory Copley on the anti-Russian disinformation war:
https://audioboom.com/posts/8069504-ukraine-what-is-information-dominance-gregory-r-copley-gregory_copley-editor-and-publish
Some follow-up on Copley’s “why Putin took the bait”? Had he not done so, the Kiev regime’s NATO ties would become more enhanced, along with a greater threat to Donbass and the neo-Nazi factor. Putting aside military strategy, what could Putin have done differently? For years, he peacefully sought a new Euro-Atlantic security arrangement and for the Kiev regime to implement the UN approved Minsk Protocol, calling for a negotiated Donbass autonomy within Ukraine.
Trump recently said that the Russian military action is something that could’ve been avoided and the settlement options are now something different from what was previously more easily available within reason. Obama as president was against arming Ukraine and confronting Russia over that area.
On the other hand, Biden has been from the confrontational McCain view of Russia. Regarding Trump, a good number of his supporters haven’t been as gung-ho as him in seeking improved US-Russian relations.
What has Zelensky done that is more provocative than Poroshenko?Replies: @Sean, @A123
One of the reasons the scientific approach is so useful is that it allows you to eliminate hypotheses. If you've successfully disproven - "discredited" - one idea, you don't have to keep thinking about it. Of course, it's best when several people independently disprove it, that way you can have more confidence that crucial details weren't overlooked, but in general, once you are satisfied that something has been disproven, you can confidently move on.
Also, I consider myself open-minded too. A skeptic, certainly, but an open-minded skeptic. I think a world in which the paranormal is real would be much more exciting than one in which it isn't. (A bit unsettling too, I suppose, but I think I could live with that.) I'm not opposed on principle. I don't even need anything like total certainty to decide one way or the other, it's just that the evidence I've seen proffered so far hasn't met even my relatively low bar. Other people, with even lower bars, evidently feel differently. Actually, that's an argument I recently heard made on one of the Catholic apologist podcasts I listen to. It's one of the better theistic arguments I've come across. It doesn't prove anything, but it does a fine job of turning a favorite atheistic line of reasoning back against them.
Theists are often accused of retreating into "God of the gaps" territory - as science has removed the need for "God" explanations for various phenomena, theists retreats to claiming only God can explain the various remaining gaps in scientific knowledge. The argument asks the atheist what he would consider sufficient proof of God, and it maintains that no matter what answer is given, the answer will in some way take on a "God of the gaps" form. If the atheist experienced the proof of God's existence that he claims would convince him, he'd be left arguing that the experience was so out of the ordinary that he has no way of explaining it, therefore it must have been God - ie a God of the gaps.Replies: @AaronB, @Coconuts, @Barbarossa
A couple points that I’ve considered in my own questioning…
I don’t find the idea of God any more “absurd” than the idea that the universe in it’s infinite complexity came about purely as a matter of chance. Both systems require a faith or credulity of sorts, atheists are just loath to call it that. The cascading probabilities of infinitely culminating accidents actually seems more fantastic to my own mind.
Any atheistic account of material creation still does not account for a prime mover, so even ideas like the big bang don’t explain where that initial super compressed point of matter arose from.
As a side point, I actually find it interesting how the figurative language in the creation narrative of Genesis mirrors what science believes the early stages and progression of the universe could have looked like. I’m not a young earth creationist by any stretch, so if one sees the 7 days as figurative spans of time, it really gets the progression right on.
I have had enough”paranormal” experiences personally to be quite certain that there is considerably more than the physical plane. I can’t offer any hard definitions of exactly how it all works, but that is hardly surprising considering it is dealing with matters literally outside of normal human frames of reference. It brings to mind when the disciples were pestering Jesus about the next world and he told them (perhaps with a raised eyebrow) “If I have spoken to you earthly things, and you believe not; how will you believe, if I shall speak to you heavenly things?”
On perception of the spiritual, I would say that our current society puts up massive barriers. The constant stimulation and rush doesn’t provide the space for other, more subtle things to come through. I’ve often observed that people are so in their own heads that they fail to notice all sorts of normal physical things. A spectacular sunset, the incredible chaos of shapes in a forest of bare trees, etc. all go frequently unnoticed because people don’t make the space to really see them.
Perception is also sharpened with practice. I can see all sorts of things by eye, such as whether something is level and straight, or the identification of wood species by a bit of bark or grain pattern. Sometimes people act as though it’s some incredible feat but it’s really not, it’s just a training of perception. So too with spiritual sight. It take attention and practice, which are things we moderns are loath to give when comfortable distraction is much more gratifying.
To use AaronB’s terminology, I am probably too “left brained” for my own good and so I feel that I am personally lacking in spiritual sight. My wife and some of the kids see much more than I do. My eldest daughter particularly sees things on the spiritual plane like my wife does. So I think there is strong factor of some people being more gifted than others in their spiritual perception, much like I was always handy with taking things apart and putting them back together. We come with certain strengths and weaknesses baked in. Our society definitely defaults to ways of thinking and seeing that are exclusive of the spiritual and this heavily weights the equation of what we do see or even try to see.
Some of our commenters such as Mikel might have a fellow-feeling with Lunn, as Lunn was also an avid mountaineer and skier, who codified the modern slalom race; he also later converted to Catholicism and wrote a number of apologetic books in his own right.
-30% of Brazilians in Ireland are LGBT. (BTW, Brazil supposedly has the highest murder rate in the world for trannies - which one would suppose is an accident of demographics more than anything else. One underappreciated cause of globohomo is the desire of gays to increase the amount of "meat" that is available to them among those with low socio-economic status. )
-From, 2011 to 2016, the number of Jews in Ireland quadrupled.
-Irish people are now a minority in two thirds of inner city North Dublin.
-In 1999, only 2% of births were to foreign nationals. By 2003, it was almost 20%. An estimated 70% were Nigerian women. Often coming to Ireland, while in labor. In 2016, blacks were reported to be 3.3% of the 10-14 age bracket.
-Child benefit (until age 17) is paid at double the normal rate, per child, if you have triplets. Whether it is through their naturally higher rates of twinning (due to being more r-selected) or IVF, an outsized number of these payouts seem to be Nigerians.
-In 2016, 35% of the rental supplement was paid to non-citizens (how many non-Irish?), despite a severe housing shortage.
-There are 250,000 applications for citizenship, asylum and visas in Ireland each year, according to a statement made by the minister of justice in 2018.
-From 2011 to 2016, daily Irish speakers decreased >11%, down to a paltry 20,586.
-In 2014, 25% of children were born to non-citizen mothers. While 25%, were born to non-Irish (probably really non-citizen) fathers.
https://t.me/s/OrlaredChanReplies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa, @Mikel
I’ve heard of the Picts called the “dark Gael”, but that is something else entirely.
I remember my Dad dedicating his rosary to the “restoration of Ireland as the Isle of saints and scholars”. It doesn’t seem like that is likely any time soon, that’s for sure. It makes me think I should see it soon before it becomes less Irish than it already is.
Some of my folks came from a place that I don't think even had electricity until the 1970s. In the 1700s, I'm not even sure there were roads. I heard that when people needed to transport a load, back then, they would capture a bog pony, and tie the load to its tail and get it to drag it behind, letting it return to the bogs afterward. Some of my GG grandparents in the area could not even speak English. But I have seen black faces in the nearby village. The first time I was in Ireland, I don't recall seeing one in Dublin.
IMO, there's no other solution for Europeans (and I think for East Asians as well) other than to made demographics a focal point. Frontload it into education, so that it is there when puberty hits kids, and you can encourage them to dream about having big families. Unfortunately, this seems politically impossible in the West, where the idea of "integration" is really just promoted in order to destroy the ability of natives to self-segregate and perpetuate their own culture and people.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Coconuts
__________(1) https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2022/04/19/cnn-is-on-its-deathbed-and-i-cant-stop-laughing-n1591093https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WswOEtuPW4MReplies: @songbird
IMO, CNN+ is an unsaleable idea.
Much of the success of CNN itself was that it came in cable bundles, where you were forced to pay for it, whether you wanted it or not. Maybe, there was a point to it in the ’80s or even ’90s.
But now, it is hard to see the point. There are several free news streaming services. Not to mention, one can get their news on the internet. If one really wants talking heads, for the most part, I think podcasts are better.
I get the idea that it might actually help that they are woke. Woke may be a relatively small audience, but they are motivated to watch the “news”, because it lets them feel part of the progressive cult.
https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/jordan_chamberlain_cnn_jeffrey_toobin_04-21-2022.jpg
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cnn-shut-down-one-month-after-launch
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html That's the thing. None of them---Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others---come across as "Kremlin shills" because they aren't. They're sober Western military experts, and what they're saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven't worked out, they've become demoralized. I think you'd be better off listening to the people I mentioned.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa, @utu
If there is any deep thinking it is based on the conviction that there is no alternative. That is risky because there are always alternatives – the most obvious one is the financial system going back to no agreed standards or universally accepted “reserve currency”. Not quite an alternative but a more chaotic ad-hoc financial system. Kind of like back to nothing and that fits well with the general Western rush to nihilism in the last decade. When we go down we tend to retrace all steps that we took on the way up.
Mass psychosis doesn’t have to be massive, it can start with as few as two people. It can easily happen among a few thousand elite decision makers who adopt “we are in a war” attitude and embark on an action-driven course that in retrospect looks like hysteria.
This is not thought through (by any side). One way we can tell is that all sides want to keep it going and even escalate. They fear what happens if it ends. An interesting zugzwang we got ourselves into.
I don't find the idea of God any more "absurd" than the idea that the universe in it's infinite complexity came about purely as a matter of chance. Both systems require a faith or credulity of sorts, atheists are just loath to call it that. The cascading probabilities of infinitely culminating accidents actually seems more fantastic to my own mind.
Any atheistic account of material creation still does not account for a prime mover, so even ideas like the big bang don't explain where that initial super compressed point of matter arose from.
As a side point, I actually find it interesting how the figurative language in the creation narrative of Genesis mirrors what science believes the early stages and progression of the universe could have looked like. I'm not a young earth creationist by any stretch, so if one sees the 7 days as figurative spans of time, it really gets the progression right on.
I have had enough"paranormal" experiences personally to be quite certain that there is considerably more than the physical plane. I can't offer any hard definitions of exactly how it all works, but that is hardly surprising considering it is dealing with matters literally outside of normal human frames of reference. It brings to mind when the disciples were pestering Jesus about the next world and he told them (perhaps with a raised eyebrow) "If I have spoken to you earthly things, and you believe not; how will you believe, if I shall speak to you heavenly things?"
On perception of the spiritual, I would say that our current society puts up massive barriers. The constant stimulation and rush doesn't provide the space for other, more subtle things to come through. I've often observed that people are so in their own heads that they fail to notice all sorts of normal physical things. A spectacular sunset, the incredible chaos of shapes in a forest of bare trees, etc. all go frequently unnoticed because people don't make the space to really see them.
Perception is also sharpened with practice. I can see all sorts of things by eye, such as whether something is level and straight, or the identification of wood species by a bit of bark or grain pattern. Sometimes people act as though it's some incredible feat but it's really not, it's just a training of perception. So too with spiritual sight. It take attention and practice, which are things we moderns are loath to give when comfortable distraction is much more gratifying.
To use AaronB's terminology, I am probably too "left brained" for my own good and so I feel that I am personally lacking in spiritual sight. My wife and some of the kids see much more than I do. My eldest daughter particularly sees things on the spiritual plane like my wife does. So I think there is strong factor of some people being more gifted than others in their spiritual perception, much like I was always handy with taking things apart and putting them back together. We come with certain strengths and weaknesses baked in. Our society definitely defaults to ways of thinking and seeing that are exclusive of the spiritual and this heavily weights the equation of what we do see or even try to see.Replies: @RSDB
As long as we are both recommending books and debating questions of religion, the controversy between Arnold Lunn and Fr. Ronald Knox, in which Lunn attacked and Knox defended the Catholic religion, published under the title of Difficulties, covers some of the (perhaps more “left-brained”) ground people have been going over here; it has also the advantage of being a very slim book and a quick read. It seems to be hard to find for sale but not too difficult to find in libraries.
Some of our commenters such as Mikel might have a fellow-feeling with Lunn, as Lunn was also an avid mountaineer and skier, who codified the modern slalom race; he also later converted to Catholicism and wrote a number of apologetic books in his own right.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8069504-ukraine-what-is-information-dominance-gregory-r-copley-gregory_copley-editor-and-publish
Some follow-up on Copley's "why Putin took the bait"? Had he not done so, the Kiev regime's NATO ties would become more enhanced, along with a greater threat to Donbass and the neo-Nazi factor. Putting aside military strategy, what could Putin have done differently? For years, he peacefully sought a new Euro-Atlantic security arrangement and for the Kiev regime to implement the UN approved Minsk Protocol, calling for a negotiated Donbass autonomy within Ukraine.
Trump recently said that the Russian military action is something that could've been avoided and the settlement options are now something different from what was previously more easily available within reason. Obama as president was against arming Ukraine and confronting Russia over that area.
On the other hand, Biden has been from the confrontational McCain view of Russia. Regarding Trump, a good number of his supporters haven't been as gung-ho as him in seeking improved US-Russian relations.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
You’re saying the determining factor of Russia deciding to invade is Biden’s relatively confrontational stance against Russia, regardless of which Neocons calling the shots and despite the Maidan happening under Obama’s watch?
What has Zelensky done that is more provocative than Poroshenko?
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/Replies: @Mr. Hack
ISLAM -- Muslims are engaged in Jihad Invasion of Europe. WEF Elites are key to this, especially the despicable George IslamoSoros. SJW Islam organized the fight in Ukraine to maxize the quantity of invaders entering the EU.
Their strategy is prolonging this fight as long as possible. Ukraine will be given enough arms to keep fighting. However, these contributions will be carefully limited to ensure that they never have enough to win.
It also throws off side benefits. Former Rothschild banker and SJW Islamic advocate Macron was able to act as a statesman between Ukraine and Russia. As an armistice would not serve the Muslim invasion, the staged events produced no results. However, Macron gained prestige for the "attempt".
CHRISTIANITY -- Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians have no good reason to fight. They have been manipulated into this war by Woke-slam.
If things could be undone, the optimal choice would be avoiding this fight entirely. The best option now is for Christians to stop killing Christians as soon as possible. That would allow Christian Europe to refocus on the horror of the Great Replacement.
_____
I originally thought that Zelensky was a willing accomplice to George IslamoSoros. So, you can find some posting history where I blamed Ukraine. As I obtained more information, I now realize that Zelensky was duped by Taqiyya deception from The IslamoSoros.
Alas, I cannot unpost those earlier, errant charges. I do retract them.
_____
I find your black-white take on the situation problematic. Trying to portray everything Ukraine does as "Good" and everything Russia does as "Evil", unnecessarily hardens your position.
It took days to get a grudging admission that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians in Crimea by by building a dam. And, even now I believe that you see targeting civilians in Crimea as "Good". The civilians are "Evil" for daring to break away from Kiev rule, and thus deserve to be targeted and punished. Is kicking the weak "Good", when the weak being kicked are "Evil"?
I recommend stepping back and taking a look at the larger picture. The SJW Islamic WEF will never allow Ukraine to win. That does not serve their anti-Western assault, and Woke-slam has sufficient influence to prevent such a victory. Ukrainians as a whole, yourself included, need to focus on obtaining an armistice, so that Christians stop dying. That is an achievable goal that would confound those who created this war.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
Quite typical from such alleged antiMuslim, not a single word about WEF IslamoPutin who started the invasion two months, including the use of his own pet Muslims in order maximize the quantity of invaders entering the EU 😉
Much of the success of CNN itself was that it came in cable bundles, where you were forced to pay for it, whether you wanted it or not. Maybe, there was a point to it in the '80s or even '90s.
But now, it is hard to see the point. There are several free news streaming services. Not to mention, one can get their news on the internet. If one really wants talking heads, for the most part, I think podcasts are better.
I get the idea that it might actually help that they are woke. Woke may be a relatively small audience, but they are motivated to watch the "news", because it lets them feel part of the progressive cult.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123
Wokes aren’t another species unlike humans, and they’ll still get the most out of the news on the web – Twitter has been exploited to their advantage. It’s a lost proposition one way or another.
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html That's the thing. None of them---Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others---come across as "Kremlin shills" because they aren't. They're sober Western military experts, and what they're saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven't worked out, they've become demoralized. I think you'd be better off listening to the people I mentioned.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa, @utu
You’re on crack, like your boy Groomer Scott Ritter, and your list of loonytune Kremlin shills.
Sober?
A sensible academic has been making those points in his essays and interviews:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/weapons-of-financial-destruction-and-the-new-world-disorder/
https://rumble.com/vxj743-david-hendrickson-weapons-of-financial-destruction-wfds-unleashed-on-russia.html That's the thing. None of them---Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others---come across as "Kremlin shills" because they aren't. They're sober Western military experts, and what they're saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven't worked out, they've become demoralized. I think you'd be better off listening to the people I mentioned.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Triteleia Laxa, @utu
“utterly hysterical Western reaction has been astonishing” – The West demonstrates for everybody to see how strong it is. The West plays a much bigger game which also includes moral dimension that you seem to be unable to appreciate. The West is in the process of killing the chicken for the monkey to see. Thanks to Putin Taiwan is on the path to real sovereignty and independence of China and the monkey in Beijing except for making noises will not dare to do anything. Expect to see more countries following Lithuania example to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan. And the chicken is finished.
Yeah, you could be right. Once the Russian people realize just how deep a hole old Putler has dug for his people, he could very well be deposed in some sort of a coup. His macho man image and western tie and white shirt won’t be able to save his ass in the long haul either…this authoritarian figure (dictator) needs to go. He could have been somebody, but unfortunately history will only remember him as the butcher of Mariupol (and Irpin, Bucha, etc.) and who knows where else? 25 years is enough time for the KGB thug – time to try something different.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-pm-sanchez-denmarks-pm-frederiksen-visit-kyiv-2022-04-21/
What has Zelensky done that is more provocative than Poroshenko?Replies: @Sean, @A123
Zelensky wanted to end the war but was unable to fulfill the Mink accords because Poroshenko and his integral nationalist allies were calling him a sell out. Billionaire Poroshenko was the main organizer of the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the revolution/ coup in 2014 that resulted in Poroshenko becoming president. It has been him all along. Zelensky was elected on the basis of an anti corruption campaign that was clearly targeting Poroshenko, who was tried with twenty offences including treason on Zelensky’s orders. Poroshenko fled the country for a time but his nationalist rhetoric played well with with the population and Zelenky got into corruption scandals of his own, so Zelensky started copying Poroshenko’s rhetoric. Trump is also to blame because against his better judgement he was persuaded to give Ukraine weapons, while it was sill fighting Russia in Donbass. When Biden came in the widespread perception was that Trump had denied Ukraine weapons actually only Obama had (against Blinkens’s pressing advice) refused to supply arms to Ukraine. Not only did President Biden signal his intent by giving the a first ever meeting with the US President to a President of Ukraine, he amped up the arms shipments tremendously, which was very popular with congress. It was a foreign policy decision taken for domestic political reasons. Only Xi, leader of that country Biden publicly said was no competition for the US, gains any advantage. Maybe Biden wants to give China a sporting chance for world domination?
As the euphoria of helping Ukrainians is slowly abating, a cold new reality is slowly dawning on Western Europeans: most of these refugees are deeply socially conservative on abortion or LGBT issues.
The article is written by a liberal journalist in Berlingske, arguably Denmark’s paper of record. 100K is a lot for Denmark. That would be like 200K for us given they are roughly 1/2 the population size of Sweden. During the 2015 refugee crisis, we took in around 150K Syrians. So Denmark has truly committed to taking in huge numbers, but now the reality is hitting.
I suspect most Ukrainians who come to Denmark will stay there, given the skyhigh living standards. How will liberals reconcile their humanitarian instincts when those fleeing war have opposing views on social issues? When the refugees are non-white, it’s easy to shut down this debate by shouting racism. But when they are white, the old rules no longer apply…
Traditional values Ukrainian refugees hope to return home. They will travel the minimum distance stopping in Poland. As a nation, Poland has been driven below TFR by Schengen and shares traditional values with those who want to stick close to the border. It actually fills a demographic need for Poland if the fighting continues and some remain.
SJW Muslim handout seekers will reach locales like Sweden that are Islamophilic and currently ultra generous. The idea of the Swedish Caliphate joining NATO is appalling and will likely be vetoed by a member country.
PEACE 😇
You assume he wants an armistice.
All the useless Western Talking Heads have claimed that Russia is only days away from running out of resources and have been doing it almost from the start and we are now, what, 57 days in.
Maybe Putin wants the complete destruction of Zelensky and his puppet masters. It seems, at this stage, Putin will achieve that.
Despite all the claims that the Ukrainians have put up a heroic fight as the feisty underdogs, it seems they are reduced to using civilian vehicles to transport their troops and Western weapons, and Russia has an ever increasing arsenal of Western ATGMs etc.
I suspect most Ukrainians who come to Denmark will stay there, given the skyhigh living standards. How will liberals reconcile their humanitarian instincts when those fleeing war have opposing views on social issues? When the refugees are non-white, it's easy to shut down this debate by shouting racism. But when they are white, the old rules no longer apply...Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Wokechoke, @A123, @LatW
Wait. Is Putin actually a master manipulator bent on the complete subjugation of the Western world?
My theory is that the general flows from Ukraine will continue indefinitely. If they have already run out of non-Euros, more will come, once it has been proven a successful pathway. Or, if inconvenient, they will simply join the flows at other points, outside Ukraine. These people have ideological facilitators, with money to spend to aid them.
The conflict in Ukraine will be fed to help distract from these flows, which could potentially be bigger than in all previous history. Inflation, food prices, and food availability will not help.
I have the idea that all those guys looking to sign up with the Russians in Ethiopia, were looking to get to Ukraine, then desert and become "refugees."Replies: @Thulean Friend
It has already decreased. It is almost impossible to fly into Ukraine now unless you’re signed up to fight. Getting in through either land borders is synonymous with mortal danger and the sea is pointless (the only realistic place would be Turkey, but why not go to Greece instead?).
Africans are easily impressionable people. Once they start dying in droves, the remaining ones will desert and Russia won’t take in more. The Syrian veterans are more likely to be of use to Putin.
Whether it will stay this way once the war has ended is not something I’ve predicted, nor will I, since nobody can know what the future regime of rump-Ukraine will do.
It’s certainly true that the NGO-Human rights complex is highly active, but I think even in their absence we’d see these flows.
I think another additional factor is that some of the economic migrants in Belarus might have crossed the border and pretended to be Ukrainians. Remember that if you cross into a number of EU countries from the territory of Ukraine from 4th feb onwards, they barely check your papers. But these are exceptional state of affairs that are bound to change sooner or later.
Will the flows continue? It’s certainly possible, but then again many countries on the EU’s eastern flank are building walls and walls are harder to breach than open waters. (The US wall is barely a wall, so I don’t count that. If you look at Hungary or Israel then you certainly see a strong effect)
I highly doubt this (if you’re hinting at non-European migration). The EU recently pushed a rule through that will allow sanctions to be imposed on third world countries that don’t accept those who have been given a deportation order. This is the unsung development on this continent… the so-called liberal mainstream has moved much closer to Orban on migration than vice versa. There are even open debates to allow “pushbacks“, which are illegal under international law. That’s how far the debate has shifted. Chilling.
But, even though a few walls may have gone up, in Eastern Europe I'm not seeing much evidence of an ideological change in the West. The UK had massive arrivals during lockdown. Isn't everything still much bigger than it was in the '90s? It seems like the drive has just been to legalize everything. Even with this talk of setting up a center in Rwanda.
I don't give much heed to what I consider to be the lip service of politicians. If they are concerned, I suspect it is only about the potential for big flows to cause destabilization. Not because they reject the end result. Who remembers the "multiculturalism doesn't work" of the early 2010s? I don't think we have seen an ideological sea change. I feel like, if the desire to pull back from the policies of the past was genuine, then they would stop demonizing groups like AfD.
Sober?
https://twitter.com/VatnikCoPe/status/1516038654858174471?t=YC9Il9jUYOTVvR9muPWyEA&s=19Replies: @Wokechoke
He appears to be pointing out that there is a world war going on.
ROTFLMAO
Putin chose highly expendable Chechen Muslims for an end on the battlefield. This obviously and irrefutably saved Russian Orthodox lives. Your specious accusation of “IslamoPutin” ludicrous.
Why are you so adamantly cucking for Islam?
PEACE 😇
I suspect most Ukrainians who come to Denmark will stay there, given the skyhigh living standards. How will liberals reconcile their humanitarian instincts when those fleeing war have opposing views on social issues? When the refugees are non-white, it's easy to shut down this debate by shouting racism. But when they are white, the old rules no longer apply...Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Wokechoke, @A123, @LatW
Give it six months of direct contact. The Ukies won’t be liked. Give it a year and some gang of them will be blowing up a Parliament or Senate in Europe. You know for not doing enough for ten to save them from Russia.
I suspect most Ukrainians who come to Denmark will stay there, given the skyhigh living standards. How will liberals reconcile their humanitarian instincts when those fleeing war have opposing views on social issues? When the refugees are non-white, it's easy to shut down this debate by shouting racism. But when they are white, the old rules no longer apply...Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Wokechoke, @A123, @LatW
There will be a great deal of self sorting.
Traditional values Ukrainian refugees hope to return home. They will travel the minimum distance stopping in Poland. As a nation, Poland has been driven below TFR by Schengen and shares traditional values with those who want to stick close to the border. It actually fills a demographic need for Poland if the fighting continues and some remain.
SJW Muslim handout seekers will reach locales like Sweden that are Islamophilic and currently ultra generous. The idea of the Swedish Caliphate joining NATO is appalling and will likely be vetoed by a member country.
PEACE 😇
What has Zelensky done that is more provocative than Poroshenko?Replies: @Sean, @A123
Zelensky’s administration did announce their desire to point nukes at Russia. (1)
While we do not know the details, European intelligence services appear to have been routing misinformation to the Kremlin via China. It would not be hard to make a Ukraine-Pakistan commercial contact look like cover for a nuclear weapons discussion.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/
Kiev regime pretty much withdraws from east of the Dnieper, as it tries to militarily build itself up is a possible scenario?
Time to play some Fallout will ya.
And also to utu: If China has to pick between trade with the US and Japan, or Taiwan, China will pick Taiwan. EU will be pulled onto the side of the US, because some moral equivalence between Ukraine and Taiwan, and that is a sad thing to see.
Your cucking for Muslims and IslamoPutin is quite apparent as you prefer Orthodox Christian (including ethnic Russians) defenders of Ukraine being killed by RF pet muslims.
It should be noted yet again that mostly protected (PR)aetorian Kadyrovites are just fraction of IslamoPutin pet muslims on real battlefields, there are more than plenty others too.
Why do you keep cucking so hard for Islam? You need to change your screen name.
How about Cuck-hammad?
It suits your total & extreme cucking behaviour. We would ask how many family members have you offered up to random passing Muslims, except we already know the answer... All of them.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death
I would advise against going down the path of reconsidering everything just because of Goedel’s incompleteness theorem and the difficulty of grasping quantum mechanics with our limited brains. None of that eliminates the real existence of BS.
I think that you have made a couple of statements that mischaracterized what science is but I’m a bit lazy today and don’t want to debate that. However, this is very questionable:
That alibi certainly doesn’t apply to most people claiming to have paranormal powers. They do want to be believed and be taken seriously but none of them has ever been able to show these powers under controlled empirical conditions. If there was one single person on the planet capable of doing paranormal things it’s impossible to believe that none of them has been able to win any of the decades-old succulent prizes on offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
Anyway, I hear that this canal in the Salt Flats desert is becoming more and more popular:
It’s a man-made canal of brine going from a potash factory to a distant evaporation lagoon. Man-made structures in the middle of nature usually put me off but I can understand its popularity. I once saw the canal edge in the distance while I was trying to cross the salt flats to reach the mountains in the background. I can imagine myself navigating that canal in a canoe in the future. That salty water doesn’t freeze in winter.
Perhaps what I’ve been trying to do all my life when enjoying contact with nature is have some sort of spiritual/religious experience. Sometimes it feels like that. But that’s as far as I can go: just marvel at the beauty of nature.
To go back to my own dowsing experiences, they are hard to pin down as infallible or "psychic". For example, I can't tell what I'm detecting below ground, but some deduction provides context. It's rather like feeling around in a pitch dark room.
If I know a gas line starts in X location but don't know where it goes from there, I can trace it by using a back and forth path, marking where the wires cross each time. However, if there happens to be an electric line or something else close by it is possible to get off track.
For the life of me I can't understand the mechanism of what the technique picks up. Full or defunct water, gas and electric lines, large tree roots, graves (apparently anyhow, I haven't and won't attempt an exhumation) but seemingly not big rocks.
Maybe I could collect that prize on dowsing, but sadly I'm not likely to travel to Denmark or whatever it was to do so.
The dowsing could easily have a perfectly "rational" explanation, though by a mechanism not understood by the current science. Electricity was deemed magical before we harnessed it for large usage. To be honest, I'm not sure electricity is any less magic for it's being harnessed. We are just rendered blind to it's wonder because we take it for granted.
I have had other experiences which are more consistent with spiritual entities of some sort that I have never been able to explain away, though I've carefully gone through all alternative explanations. Some of them have been corroborated independently by other individuals. No, I cannot prove them per se, but the overwhelming conclusion from the sum of my experiences is that there is more out there than the surface reality.
Again, it's impossible to dismiss a form of "rationale" explanation for many of these phenomena. Could spiritual planes of existence be the manifestation of a multi-verse or multi-dimensional reality which has limited bleed over into our reality? Certainly. Critically, I wouldn't say that this explanation is even in conflict with spiritual teaching or lessens it's importance. If we found out "scientifically" that we lived in a multidimensional reality, that there is a dimensional shift in our consciousness when we die, and that the totality of the multiverses is an all encompassing Universal Consciousness greater than the sum of It's parts, would this be science or religion?
Maybe it doesn't matter and maybe it could be both, properly understood. It doesn't have to be one or the other, science or religion in conflict. There is a lot about the universe that we don't know, and we are fooling ourselves if we pretend anything otherwise.
So be careful!
https://www.amazon.com/Greeks-Irrational-Sather-Classical-Lectures/dp/0520242300
If you are ever face to face with a mountain lion at five meters you might find it revelatory. : )
In a way, I think part of the problem is that we've been brought up by our culture to say things like well, there's lots of fraud and deception in an area, so we should totally dismiss it - only the totally certain and "unmessy" has value.
It's like morality and ethics - lots of frauds out there who will use the language of morality to lie and cheat their way through life. That area of life simply isn't susceptible to certainty.
And in fact, because ethical certainty and consistent behavior isn't obtainable, because fraud and deceit are prevalent, the dominant strand in modern society - which only values the certain - says morality is bullshit and we are utterly selfish beings anyways who just pursue survival.
And yet this isn't true :)
And thinking it is means the loss of a hugely important dimension in life.
Or consider this -
If paranormal powers come as the result of relinquishing the desire to dominate and control - as the spiritual literature suggests - then a genuine spiritual practitioner who agreed to participate in a scientific study to verify his powers would lose his his ability to do so - precisely because science is the effort to dominate and control.
Powers that might come as a result of relinquishing"ego" and the desire to extend human dominance may be inherently undetectable by a method that is about establishing dominance and control and furthering ego.
Most spiritual traditions say outright that powers are incidental and should not be sought.
Or consider supernatural entities -
They may have a role in choosing whether they wish to manifest, and they may represent a side of reality that is positively offended at attempts to make them reproducible and controllable :)
There is much more than can be said in this vein.
But the point is, the desire for "certainty" may not be the only interesting or profitable lens from which to view reality.
It may most of the most interesting sides of life aren't susceptible to scientific certainty.
And since science itself isn't certain, why make a fetish of it? .
Absolutely, and this is the best approach you can possibly take in my humble opinion.
Paul Kingsnorth who used to be a secular liberal environmental activist says that when young his father would take him on long walks in the English hills and he would constantly feel a sense of numinous presence, a sense of forces and powers and presences that made him feel nature was far from senseless matter.sevukar society insisted it was. That's why he went into environmental activism.
Only much later did he understand he was encountering the sacred and the numinous in those walks in the hills.
I feel it too!
The wilderness played an indispensable role in making me aware of the numinous recently.
A big problem with Western religion is that God is too much conceived of as "out there" and utterly beyond, and not enough as "in" everything in the world, as in other traditions.
Anyways, I believe a sense of the numinous that comes from nature - even if wordless - is one of the most authentic and pure approaches to religion there is, even without any "superstructure" of beliefs.
After all, the mystics specifically downgraded the role of beliefs and concepts.
So wherever you end up, you're surely on one of the best paths in my opinion..Replies: @silviosilver, @Mikel
I suspect most Ukrainians who come to Denmark will stay there, given the skyhigh living standards. How will liberals reconcile their humanitarian instincts when those fleeing war have opposing views on social issues? When the refugees are non-white, it's easy to shut down this debate by shouting racism. But when they are white, the old rules no longer apply...Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter, @Wokechoke, @A123, @LatW
Many of them will probably stay, however, most of them are women and children. Those that are married, probably want to go back to their hubbies (so hoping for them to survive and the bigger majority of the fighting men will likely survive). It’s not clear which way the families will reconcile (in Denmark or back in Ukraine). Some refugees are already returning back to Ukraine. For instance, the communications in the town of Irpin are being restored quite quickly and vast areas are safe.
But of course many will stay and both sides need to be prepared for the culture shock. The Ukrainian women need to be warned about the realities in the Nordic countries when it comes to child custody issues in case they choose in the future to mate with Nordic men. The perceptions on gender roles and legal aspects of custody are very different (Eastern Europeans still consider motherhood & mother’s rights as sacred and preferential for the children). There are big differences in perceptions of how children are to be raised and one can run into huge problems if these expectations are not met.
Valid question, although I’m not so sure that everyone in the Ukrainian diaspora will express their skepticism of gay rights the way this priest did in the example you gave. The males might be more inclined to do so, but the females less so. Remember also that there are fewer males among them right now and those who are there probably do not speak Danish or even English, so will mostly be silent and employed in working class professions.
The ones who live in Denmark should try to abide by the Danish laws. And, yes, agreed, 100K for Denmark is a lot. However, the big picture is that, while they’re not northern Germanic, most of them are healthy whites (if they can get over the war trauma) who are relatively hard working, so in general it’s a gain for Denmark but a loss for Ukraine.
But this is a valid question nevertheless even from a wider perspective. What are the options for having a Europe wide discussion about our objective differences and how we can live together side by side, even if we are different? Way back before the EU tried to adopt the European Constitution there were many grassroots debates about this, even if this project didn’t go anywhere, there was an option for a broad debate.
Is there an Aristotelian option here, a middle ground of some sort? The Western liberals agree to not morally patronize Eastern Europeans and Eastern Europeans agree to not show open aggression towards “diversity” in the Western countries they live in, that way neither side has to compromise their value set and they can still co-exist?
P.s. Also, remember that Ukrainians are different. There are many conservative types, but there are also urban techie types that are definitely not going to behave like fundies.
And, yes, they should stay in Poland & the Baltic States where they won’t run into the kind of “conservative value vs woke” problems as they would in Scandinavia, the problem is only that their numbers are large so the receiving infrastructure needs to be built (housing, education, etc).
Battle of Mariupol. “The aftermath.”
Number of troops of the Ukrainian forces at the beginning of the siege of Mariupol: 8,100 (Army troops + paramilitary forces).
Losses by category:
Deaths: 4,584
Captured: 1,478
Dying in the Azovstal’s underground complex : 2,100 (approx)
Just to clarify the details about LTU-China spat about Taiwan – Lithuania did not go nowhere as far as recognizing Taiwanese indepence and at least officially always maintained it respects “one China” principle, but the main point of contention was the naming of quite usual trade office wich do exist in many countries already. It was named as “Taiwanese” instead of “Taipei” trade office and CCP was very discontent because of it, but still did not terminate diplomatic relations altogether, just recalled their own ambassador, LT did the same too.
Number of troops of the Ukrainian forces at the beginning of the siege of Mariupol: 8,100 (Army troops + paramilitary forces).
Losses by category:
Deaths: 4,584
Captured: 1,478
Dying in the Azovstal's underground complex : 2,100 (approx)Replies: @sudden death
Captured NATO commanding generals to show: zero 😉
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/Replies: @Mr. Hack
Well, Ukraine did give up its substantial arsenal of nukes in exchange for supposed protection against the sort of nonsense that is going on now. Russia was even a guarantor of Ukraine’s borders being inviolable. A guy at where I work (an Italian-American) went as far as lament that Ukraine gave up its nukes, saying in effect that Russia would never have tried the blatant sort of aggression that it has, had Ukraine had at least one nuke on its territory.
ROTFLMAO
Why do you keep cucking so hard for Islam? You need to change your screen name.
How about Cuck-hammad?
It suits your total & extreme cucking behaviour. We would ask how many family members have you offered up to random passing Muslims, except we already know the answer… All of them.
PEACE 😇
There’s been a strong push emanating out of Eastern Europe and out of elite progressive circles in the West, to make every country, no matter how small, join the war party.
This is a really dumb move, IMO. Small countries cannot offer significant military aid, so having them onboard, doesn’t really help with strategic efforts. But something very significant is lost, by letting them join the war party – the ability to act as go-betweens, and as advocates for a peaceful resolution.
Birthright citizenship in Ireland was a loophole created by the peace process. There was a referendum in 2004, and the vote to close it was a landslide (though it hasn’t stopped the invasion). The Irish people certainly never asked to be invaded, wokes aside.
What may be different about Ireland than other countries is the fact that in no other country has the same magnitude and weight of money been brought to bear, in order to try to corrupt it.
IMO, Eastern Europe really isn’t different than Western, except in so far as history has differed. Southern Europe may actually be a bit less woke than Northern, on a natural or biological level, but, to look at it, there still seems to be a lot of Africans and Arabs around.
I remember my Dad dedicating his rosary to the "restoration of Ireland as the Isle of saints and scholars". It doesn't seem like that is likely any time soon, that's for sure. It makes me think I should see it soon before it becomes less Irish than it already is.Replies: @songbird
Honestly, I think it is pretty disturbing to go to a remote part of the countryside in Europe and see a black face – it causes all illusions to fall away.
Some of my folks came from a place that I don’t think even had electricity until the 1970s. In the 1700s, I’m not even sure there were roads. I heard that when people needed to transport a load, back then, they would capture a bog pony, and tie the load to its tail and get it to drag it behind, letting it return to the bogs afterward. Some of my GG grandparents in the area could not even speak English. But I have seen black faces in the nearby village. The first time I was in Ireland, I don’t recall seeing one in Dublin.
IMO, there’s no other solution for Europeans (and I think for East Asians as well) other than to made demographics a focal point. Frontload it into education, so that it is there when puberty hits kids, and you can encourage them to dream about having big families. Unfortunately, this seems politically impossible in the West, where the idea of “integration” is really just promoted in order to destroy the ability of natives to self-segregate and perpetuate their own culture and people.
I'm actually a real multiculturalist ,if there is such a thing; I want to see Africa stay black (probably no issue with that wish coming true) and have a thriving black culture as they see fit. I would like to see India stay Indian with their incredible cultural history. The same with Ireland, France, or Japan. They should keep their identities as a sacred trust.
By the same token, I hate seeing Western consumer crap across the globe. It's all homogenizing into an undifferentiated and denatured blob. It makes me sick to think about.
It's not that some mixing and migration is undesirable, since it has happened since the dawn of time. Cultures change and evolve which is all part of the process. It's the rate and volume which is universally indigestible today.Replies: @songbird
I think that you have made a couple of statements that mischaracterized what science is but I'm a bit lazy today and don't want to debate that. However, this is very questionable: That alibi certainly doesn't apply to most people claiming to have paranormal powers. They do want to be believed and be taken seriously but none of them has ever been able to show these powers under controlled empirical conditions. If there was one single person on the planet capable of doing paranormal things it's impossible to believe that none of them has been able to win any of the decades-old succulent prizes on offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
Anyway, I hear that this canal in the Salt Flats desert is becoming more and more popular:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t02Jx0xjinE/YQtyCI0UQrI/AAAAAAAAUlk/QOBjPTrlSmo-fc-0HhDTr-b6sOktKcx9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h328/Canal.png
It's a man-made canal of brine going from a potash factory to a distant evaporation lagoon. Man-made structures in the middle of nature usually put me off but I can understand its popularity. I once saw the canal edge in the distance while I was trying to cross the salt flats to reach the mountains in the background. I can imagine myself navigating that canal in a canoe in the future. That salty water doesn't freeze in winter.
Perhaps what I've been trying to do all my life when enjoying contact with nature is have some sort of spiritual/religious experience. Sometimes it feels like that. But that's as far as I can go: just marvel at the beauty of nature.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
That list of unclaimed prizes is interesting. Looking at them, many of them would be hard to satisfy under the terms. I would also add that there is a great volume of complete quackery and BS in the “spiritual marketplace”. It’s a perfect environment for nonsense to flourish. However, I still don’t think it’s all nonsense.
To go back to my own dowsing experiences, they are hard to pin down as infallible or “psychic”. For example, I can’t tell what I’m detecting below ground, but some deduction provides context. It’s rather like feeling around in a pitch dark room.
If I know a gas line starts in X location but don’t know where it goes from there, I can trace it by using a back and forth path, marking where the wires cross each time. However, if there happens to be an electric line or something else close by it is possible to get off track.
For the life of me I can’t understand the mechanism of what the technique picks up. Full or defunct water, gas and electric lines, large tree roots, graves (apparently anyhow, I haven’t and won’t attempt an exhumation) but seemingly not big rocks.
Maybe I could collect that prize on dowsing, but sadly I’m not likely to travel to Denmark or whatever it was to do so.
The dowsing could easily have a perfectly “rational” explanation, though by a mechanism not understood by the current science. Electricity was deemed magical before we harnessed it for large usage. To be honest, I’m not sure electricity is any less magic for it’s being harnessed. We are just rendered blind to it’s wonder because we take it for granted.
I have had other experiences which are more consistent with spiritual entities of some sort that I have never been able to explain away, though I’ve carefully gone through all alternative explanations. Some of them have been corroborated independently by other individuals. No, I cannot prove them per se, but the overwhelming conclusion from the sum of my experiences is that there is more out there than the surface reality.
Again, it’s impossible to dismiss a form of “rationale” explanation for many of these phenomena. Could spiritual planes of existence be the manifestation of a multi-verse or multi-dimensional reality which has limited bleed over into our reality? Certainly. Critically, I wouldn’t say that this explanation is even in conflict with spiritual teaching or lessens it’s importance. If we found out “scientifically” that we lived in a multidimensional reality, that there is a dimensional shift in our consciousness when we die, and that the totality of the multiverses is an all encompassing Universal Consciousness greater than the sum of It’s parts, would this be science or religion?
Maybe it doesn’t matter and maybe it could be both, properly understood. It doesn’t have to be one or the other, science or religion in conflict. There is a lot about the universe that we don’t know, and we are fooling ourselves if we pretend anything otherwise.
That’s interesting. I hadn’t heard of that.
But, even though a few walls may have gone up, in Eastern Europe I’m not seeing much evidence of an ideological change in the West. The UK had massive arrivals during lockdown. Isn’t everything still much bigger than it was in the ’90s? It seems like the drive has just been to legalize everything. Even with this talk of setting up a center in Rwanda.
I don’t give much heed to what I consider to be the lip service of politicians. If they are concerned, I suspect it is only about the potential for big flows to cause destabilization. Not because they reject the end result. Who remembers the “multiculturalism doesn’t work” of the early 2010s? I don’t think we have seen an ideological sea change. I feel like, if the desire to pull back from the policies of the past was genuine, then they would stop demonizing groups like AfD.
Some of my folks came from a place that I don't think even had electricity until the 1970s. In the 1700s, I'm not even sure there were roads. I heard that when people needed to transport a load, back then, they would capture a bog pony, and tie the load to its tail and get it to drag it behind, letting it return to the bogs afterward. Some of my GG grandparents in the area could not even speak English. But I have seen black faces in the nearby village. The first time I was in Ireland, I don't recall seeing one in Dublin.
IMO, there's no other solution for Europeans (and I think for East Asians as well) other than to made demographics a focal point. Frontload it into education, so that it is there when puberty hits kids, and you can encourage them to dream about having big families. Unfortunately, this seems politically impossible in the West, where the idea of "integration" is really just promoted in order to destroy the ability of natives to self-segregate and perpetuate their own culture and people.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Coconuts
It seems very sad to me as well to see Ireland overrun with foreigners.
I’m actually a real multiculturalist ,if there is such a thing; I want to see Africa stay black (probably no issue with that wish coming true) and have a thriving black culture as they see fit. I would like to see India stay Indian with their incredible cultural history. The same with Ireland, France, or Japan. They should keep their identities as a sacred trust.
By the same token, I hate seeing Western consumer crap across the globe. It’s all homogenizing into an undifferentiated and denatured blob. It makes me sick to think about.
It’s not that some mixing and migration is undesirable, since it has happened since the dawn of time. Cultures change and evolve which is all part of the process. It’s the rate and volume which is universally indigestible today.
If we accept the potentiality of an apocalyptic scenario in Western Europe, (for example, let's say it becomes like modern South Africa), then I think the same, in relative proportions, could easily happen to Africa, at some distant point in the future.
If people can point to Western Europe as an area that was drastically impacted by egalitarian principles, so that it was basically destroyed as a civilization, then I believe that others who survive us, won't hold to our strange morality (maybe time is running out on it, with fossil fuels). At best, they will adopt paternalism, but it may not even be that, but something much more hard-nosed and even aggressive.
If Kiev loses all of east and south they would rule over a much poorer place. It would make them strategically less interesting for Nato. For those reasons they will never withdraw voluntarily.
The problem is that there is this vast middle Ukraine, neither fully Ukrainian nor Russian, neither Galicia-Kiev, no Donbas. Both sides want it, but for both it creates more problems than benefits in the short run.
That’s why I think we are heading for a years-long stasis, kind of like the 2014-22 Donbas situation except much further west. Ukraine could have existed as a prosperous state with links both to EU and Russia, with 2-3 languages and regional variance – in other words like all the other normal European states. They threw it away by maniacally going for a Nato-aligned Ukie monoculture. It will not be possible to put it back together.
The war will not solve it, wars create more strife and fissures, they destroy economies. All else is only a bunch of has-been comedians performing for the gullible Westerners in Kiev. There are no grown-ups there, nobody who understands what state-forming requires. And to think what could have been…
Why do you keep cucking so hard for Islam? You need to change your screen name.
How about Cuck-hammad?
It suits your total & extreme cucking behaviour. We would ask how many family members have you offered up to random passing Muslims, except we already know the answer... All of them.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death
haha, see how easy is to drive mad RF propbot by trolling their IslamoPutin god, probably was even looking&talking to the miror while typing this 😉
Never ever showed so much emotion for MAGA/Trump whom was pretending to adore, lol
I have been having (and continue to have) fun at your expense. I genuinely laughed out loud at your profound low-IQ, yahoo, incompetence. Your kinship to IffenBot is notable.
Given my posting record, anyone with two brain cells to rub together would immediately grasp that accusing me of being pro-Islam is never going to fly.
We are all not laughing with you.
We are all Laughing At You!
PEACE 😇
Cuck-hammad,
I have been having (and continue to have) fun at your expense. I genuinely laughed out loud at your profound low-IQ, yahoo, incompetence. Your kinship to IffenBot is notable.
Given my posting record, anyone with two brain cells to rub together would immediately grasp that accusing me of being pro-Islam is never going to fly.
We are all not laughing with you.
We are all Laughing At You!
PEACE 😇
No, it’s wwZ 😉
Some of my folks came from a place that I don't think even had electricity until the 1970s. In the 1700s, I'm not even sure there were roads. I heard that when people needed to transport a load, back then, they would capture a bog pony, and tie the load to its tail and get it to drag it behind, letting it return to the bogs afterward. Some of my GG grandparents in the area could not even speak English. But I have seen black faces in the nearby village. The first time I was in Ireland, I don't recall seeing one in Dublin.
IMO, there's no other solution for Europeans (and I think for East Asians as well) other than to made demographics a focal point. Frontload it into education, so that it is there when puberty hits kids, and you can encourage them to dream about having big families. Unfortunately, this seems politically impossible in the West, where the idea of "integration" is really just promoted in order to destroy the ability of natives to self-segregate and perpetuate their own culture and people.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Coconuts
Likely, different values and a different way of looking at things would be helpful:
Imo this spirit is present in Aristotle, as he writes about the ultimate telos or end for which larger human societies come into being the ‘common good’, i.e. the shared practice of the various human virtues, like prudence, temperance, justice and fortitude. It should be easier to realise and appreciate these virtues when people have a shared cultural inheritance, language and a multi generational tradition of living together in a society. In addition, it’s also in some sense true that ‘nations are all mysteries/each is a world unto themselves…’, as these things are expressed in unique and specific ways from nation to nation.
Much of the success of CNN itself was that it came in cable bundles, where you were forced to pay for it, whether you wanted it or not. Maybe, there was a point to it in the '80s or even '90s.
But now, it is hard to see the point. There are several free news streaming services. Not to mention, one can get their news on the internet. If one really wants talking heads, for the most part, I think podcasts are better.
I get the idea that it might actually help that they are woke. Woke may be a relatively small audience, but they are motivated to watch the "news", because it lets them feel part of the progressive cult.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123
And airports. If you travelled you will remember the endless TV’s with captioned CNN.
CNN agrees. CNN+ is now officially canned. (1)
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cnn-shut-down-one-month-after-launch
This is a really dumb move, IMO. Small countries cannot offer significant military aid, so having them onboard, doesn't really help with strategic efforts. But something very significant is lost, by letting them join the war party - the ability to act as go-betweens, and as advocates for a peaceful resolution. Birthright citizenship in Ireland was a loophole created by the peace process. There was a referendum in 2004, and the vote to close it was a landslide (though it hasn't stopped the invasion). The Irish people certainly never asked to be invaded, wokes aside.
What may be different about Ireland than other countries is the fact that in no other country has the same magnitude and weight of money been brought to bear, in order to try to corrupt it.
IMO, Eastern Europe really isn't different than Western, except in so far as history has differed. Southern Europe may actually be a bit less woke than Northern, on a natural or biological level, but, to look at it, there still seems to be a lot of Africans and Arabs around.Replies: @Coconuts
The thing about there being only around 20,000 daily speakers of Irish left is pretty shocking and surprising, I thought it would be more.
Total Ireland population that can speak Irish Gaelic is 1.5 - 1.8MM. Trying score "daily speakers" is tricky concept, but I am disinclined to believe anything lower than 100 - 200K.
PEACE 😇
I suppose it is only a small place, but one thing that I would like to see is Great Blasket Island resettled by Irish-speaking nationalists:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasket_Islands
Probably a political impossibility, and maybe, no one would want to do it. But, in some ways, in principal, it seems easier than it was in the past. Very easy to store large amounts of food. Easier communication, with the internet. Easier to predict the condition of the passage to the mainland. Maybe, they would all need to be computer programmers or something.Replies: @sudden death, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
They ought to withdraw from Donbass, they risk getting 50,000 of their best troops encircled.
Which is why no one thought Putin would actually do it.
If Putin had not did it.
Deep down at a subliminal level, maybe Putin’s motivation for invading Ukraine is a desire to create the beginnings of what will become a total schism between the West and Russia.
Wasn’t it the US that demanded and enforced the decommissioning of the nukes? I recall that coon president Obama bragging about disarming the Ukies when he was a senator. Amirite? Russia didn’t.
I believe that anxiety and depression on the other hand, have increased dramatically. Partly I think it is because many people have the ability to indulge these destructive attitudes, which increases and deepens their hold. I think there is a benefit to having to being compelled by life's realities to "get over it" when it comes to our own existential insecurities. This is less and less expected by society, so inclined individuals are enabled to indulge their morbid fascination with themselves.
We have also dismantled many of the structures which kept these feelings in check. Religion often provided a useful sense of perspective (It's not all about you!), and community and cultural identity gave the majority of individuals a comforting baseline to default to. As much as anything I think it's very difficult psychically to expect every person to be a self-defining self-actualizing individual. There are always some who break the mold in any age, but I think the majority of people need and want guidelines. The absence of these in society can lead to feelings of drift and anxiety. This is true, and I think that it does lead to a greater incidence of negative traits being passed on. I'm not sure that this is a net kindness since it seems to entail a downward spiral as society is increasingly structured around the unwell. It seems to me that one could make a compelling "anti-vax" argument on these grounds. I'm not sure I would agree with it ethically, but I think it would be a compelling argument.
If we ever have a large scale collapse resulting from over-extended modern resource management I wouldn't be surprised if all the avoided premature deaths and resulting population explosion will be just an act of kicking the can down the road.Replies: @AaronB, @silviosilver, @Mikel
I agree with most everything you say here. It reminded me of something I read a long time ago. Apparently, quite a few survivors of the Holocaust suffered from different neurotic conditions before they were rounded up and sent to concentration camps. But psychiatrists noticed that none or few of them suffered from those conditions after they survived the experience. It makes sense to me too.
Perhaps that is the dilemma we face today. Go back to a much more brutal existence that our ancestors evolved to live in with death being much more present all the time or have a more comfortable life knowing that it will nevertheless lead many people to suffer from mental problems. A healthy social life, as Silvio and you have pointed out in different ways, seems to help prevent some of them.
Reading the sort of “Russia is stronk” chauvinist garbage that Anatoly Karlin has produced such as this:
https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands?s=r
fills me for hatred of everything Russian and to wish for its obliteration. But getting information about ordinary Russian people such as from this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel/videos
reminds me that amongst Russians there are normal people, some of whom are intelligent, well-informed and even benevolent.
This makes me wonder whether Karlin is actually some kind of neocon agent-provocateur trying to turn people against Russia. He must be faking it, surely no-one can genuinely be that big of an asshole?
-30% of Brazilians in Ireland are LGBT. (BTW, Brazil supposedly has the highest murder rate in the world for trannies - which one would suppose is an accident of demographics more than anything else. One underappreciated cause of globohomo is the desire of gays to increase the amount of "meat" that is available to them among those with low socio-economic status. )
-From, 2011 to 2016, the number of Jews in Ireland quadrupled.
-Irish people are now a minority in two thirds of inner city North Dublin.
-In 1999, only 2% of births were to foreign nationals. By 2003, it was almost 20%. An estimated 70% were Nigerian women. Often coming to Ireland, while in labor. In 2016, blacks were reported to be 3.3% of the 10-14 age bracket.
-Child benefit (until age 17) is paid at double the normal rate, per child, if you have triplets. Whether it is through their naturally higher rates of twinning (due to being more r-selected) or IVF, an outsized number of these payouts seem to be Nigerians.
-In 2016, 35% of the rental supplement was paid to non-citizens (how many non-Irish?), despite a severe housing shortage.
-There are 250,000 applications for citizenship, asylum and visas in Ireland each year, according to a statement made by the minister of justice in 2018.
-From 2011 to 2016, daily Irish speakers decreased >11%, down to a paltry 20,586.
-In 2014, 25% of children were born to non-citizen mothers. While 25%, were born to non-Irish (probably really non-citizen) fathers.
https://t.me/s/OrlaredChanReplies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa, @Mikel
If I had a vote on which European nationality should keep its character as intact as possible, I think I would choose Ireland (with perhaps Iceland in second place). We Basques have always been geographically doomed and all we can hope for is keep our old language alive and perhaps part of our cultural traditions, although I don’t think they will be the same if their guardians become people whose ancestors weren’t born in our land.
The “meat” factor that you mention is not negligible and it works for both orientations. Some years ago an Irish man told me how happy he was that Ireland was receiving so many young women from Eastern Europe. I don’t think he has anything to complain about with regards to his local girls but the grass always looks greener on the other side. I’m not sure how many Irish would vote for an end to the high income levels of the last decades in return for the more authentic country of the past. Probably not many.
Sure, but withdrawing would be worse for Kiev – it could start an unraveling. They will take the risk.
He did it because he convinced himself that the war was coming sooner or later. If Russia waited and the war would start with a Kiev attack on Donbas the losses for Donbas and Russia would be enormous and a counter-attack very costly.
Given the media and political situation in the West, Russia would be blamed for any fighting anyway. So holding back made no difference except bigger losses. I have pointed out repeatedly that demonizing an enemy and dropping all factual media standards means that the other side has nothing to gain by holding back. If one is described as a devil anyway, it makes no difference how they behave. There is a high cost for the West in abandoning independent free press when it comes to “enemies” – the media ceases to matter.
We have no idea about “subliminal” level of anyone. We can only observe what happens – based on that I agree that Russia (Putin government) is ok with total schism with the West. They are also using the war to bring down their oligarchs who have been the biggest economic losers. With the latest ban on listing Russian companies on non-Russian bourses the wealth of the oligarchs will be dramatically reduced. I am assuming all of this is intentional. This looks like a full attempt at a roll-back of the last 30 years. Let’s see what happens.
https://youtu.be/_IkOXbSqqZs?t=307Replies: @Beckow
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573557/Flashback-Senator-Obama-pushed-destruction-15-000-TONS-ammunition-400-000-small-arms-1-000-anti-aircraft-missiles-Ukraine.html#ixzz2w9BpXsWd
When the black guy comes knocking on your door do not disarm. Tell the groid to fuck off.
But the West found out that ''it is hard for thee to kick against the pricks''. Hence their rage.Replies: @Beckow
I suspect you have encountered a mistranslation. There are about 20,000 people who *only* (monoglot) speak Irish Gaelic.
Total Ireland population that can speak Irish Gaelic is 1.5 – 1.8MM. Trying score “daily speakers” is tricky concept, but I am disinclined to believe anything lower than 100 – 200K.
PEACE 😇
I think that you have made a couple of statements that mischaracterized what science is but I'm a bit lazy today and don't want to debate that. However, this is very questionable: That alibi certainly doesn't apply to most people claiming to have paranormal powers. They do want to be believed and be taken seriously but none of them has ever been able to show these powers under controlled empirical conditions. If there was one single person on the planet capable of doing paranormal things it's impossible to believe that none of them has been able to win any of the decades-old succulent prizes on offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
Anyway, I hear that this canal in the Salt Flats desert is becoming more and more popular:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t02Jx0xjinE/YQtyCI0UQrI/AAAAAAAAUlk/QOBjPTrlSmo-fc-0HhDTr-b6sOktKcx9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h328/Canal.png
It's a man-made canal of brine going from a potash factory to a distant evaporation lagoon. Man-made structures in the middle of nature usually put me off but I can understand its popularity. I once saw the canal edge in the distance while I was trying to cross the salt flats to reach the mountains in the background. I can imagine myself navigating that canal in a canoe in the future. That salty water doesn't freeze in winter.
Perhaps what I've been trying to do all my life when enjoying contact with nature is have some sort of spiritual/religious experience. Sometimes it feels like that. But that's as far as I can go: just marvel at the beauty of nature.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
There is a pertinent throwaway comment in E. R. Dodds, The Greeks and the Irrational. Dodds was a dogmatic atheist materialist, like any good 20th century Oxford classics scholar. He mentions with complete nonchalance, that every revelation experience in the ancient literature (e. g. Moses at Sinai) happened to a holy man walking solo in the hills or mountains.
So be careful!
If you are ever face to face with a mountain lion at five meters you might find it revelatory. : )
I think Kiev’s ambitions are now to get sufficient American supplied advanced arms to drive Russia out of Donbass, and Ukrine needs to seem to be on the point of losing to get that stuff. Worse is better for them for now.
In my opinion the most significant thing that happened over the last 30 years in China has become a superpower China will have gained a pretty decisive advantage if Russia breaks with America, and that is currently the most likely outcome.
But when their ostensible explanation does not make sense it’s reasonable to look for motivations that the person (Putin) may not be aware of. In the case of Xi what he has done is all very logical for a subtle strategist who knows what he is doing. I think Putin is a proud man who is highly suceptable to someone like Xi who treats Russia as a peer worthy of respect . Before his meeting with “Killer” Putin, Biden called Russia “Upper Volta”. How can Putin not feel humiliated by America?
What Ukraine is getting are mundane weapons that will prolong fighting but can't change the basic equation of a weaker military fighting a much stronger enemy. The only way Kiev could win is if Russia's morale would collapse. Thus the Western PR campaign, but it doesn't seem to be working. A few more pieces of artillery won't do it.
China is the winner. But it was the extremely unwise policy by the US that gave China the victory: they broke every common sense rule about why it is not a good idea for pushing China and Russia into what is now an unbreakable alliance. They gave China all they could dream off. As if they were directed or paid to do it. Now we will live with the consequences. Saying something so stupid only humiliated Biden and by extension America for being represented by him. Saying stupid inane things doesn't hurt the enemy and it reflects badly on people who take it seriously. I hope you don't, or do you?Replies: @Sean
I'm actually a real multiculturalist ,if there is such a thing; I want to see Africa stay black (probably no issue with that wish coming true) and have a thriving black culture as they see fit. I would like to see India stay Indian with their incredible cultural history. The same with Ireland, France, or Japan. They should keep their identities as a sacred trust.
By the same token, I hate seeing Western consumer crap across the globe. It's all homogenizing into an undifferentiated and denatured blob. It makes me sick to think about.
It's not that some mixing and migration is undesirable, since it has happened since the dawn of time. Cultures change and evolve which is all part of the process. It's the rate and volume which is universally indigestible today.Replies: @songbird
I won’t try to quote him directly, but I think Solzhenitsyn said something like “The nations are like the facets of of diamond. Beautiful in their separateness.”
I advocate adopting this as a sort of round-robin strategy. It might be a way to short-circuit the natural xenophilia of progressives, to get alien-looking people to say that they are worried about Europeans.
No danger in our lifetimes, but, in the longterm (say, 2100-2300), I’m not so sure.
If we accept the potentiality of an apocalyptic scenario in Western Europe, (for example, let’s say it becomes like modern South Africa), then I think the same, in relative proportions, could easily happen to Africa, at some distant point in the future.
If people can point to Western Europe as an area that was drastically impacted by egalitarian principles, so that it was basically destroyed as a civilization, then I believe that others who survive us, won’t hold to our strange morality (maybe time is running out on it, with fossil fuels). At best, they will adopt paternalism, but it may not even be that, but something much more hard-nosed and even aggressive.
There was a lot of enthusiasm for Irish language revival around 1900. Back then loads of adults were learning it even around Dublin, but somehow it didn’t pan out. It is still taught in schools, but I don’t know to what effect.
I suppose it is only a small place, but one thing that I would like to see is Great Blasket Island resettled by Irish-speaking nationalists:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasket_Islands
Probably a political impossibility, and maybe, no one would want to do it. But, in some ways, in principal, it seems easier than it was in the past. Very easy to store large amounts of food. Easier communication, with the internet. Easier to predict the condition of the passage to the mainland. Maybe, they would all need to be computer programmers or something.
Very cool, I like this demographics table, pop. 13 in 1881
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tearaght_Island#DemographicsReplies: @songbird
I suppose it is only a small place, but one thing that I would like to see is Great Blasket Island resettled by Irish-speaking nationalists:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasket_Islands
Probably a political impossibility, and maybe, no one would want to do it. But, in some ways, in principal, it seems easier than it was in the past. Very easy to store large amounts of food. Easier communication, with the internet. Easier to predict the condition of the passage to the mainland. Maybe, they would all need to be computer programmers or something.Replies: @sudden death, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
Ireland is interesting case because they managed to keep separate and distinct political identity despite nearly losing/abandoning native language through the ages. Guess it helps to have separate island geography and the religion branch which is different from metropoly too.
IMO, the English did a bad job of co-opting native elites. It is not that they didn't try at all, but their efforts were often concomitant with extremely alienating things, such as the Statutes of Kilkenny, which in one case, saw a Norman earl alienate his native Irish wife and remarry to a non-native. Then there were the plantations which must have upset the most loyal loyal retainers, when they happened in their neighborhood. Not to mention the penal laws.
From 1750-1870, only 3% of the land was owned by Catholics. Probably mostly Normans.
Many of the landlords were absentee, and lived on their rents in London. Many of the garrison troops were foreign. I imagine murders of civilians create hard feelings that last a few generations, and there were regular outbreaks of these (I'm sure at least partly retaliatory), along with, to a certain degree, wars. There were several shocking murders not much more than 100 years ago, in the War of Independence. For example, this one:
https://www.irishcentral.com/news/reprisals-black-and-tan-murder From 1171 down to the Reformation, in 1549, there were twenty-three archbishops of Dublin. Not a single one was native Irish. And immediately afterward, the same bounty for killing wolves was paid to those who killed priests, so it was a dangerous honor to which to be appointed. (at least Catholic Archbishops of Dublin)
Anyway. I wouldn't not characterise my view of 'military failure', certainly I think Russia will eventually reach its objectives, if not its maximal ones, and certainly not at the cost it had expected. I would say Russia initially entered Ukraine with relatively modest aims (decapitation of the current Ukrainian government, destruction of its military, elimination of any hopes of it ever joining NATO, etc.) but without claims to any insider knowledge whatsoever, I'm absolutely sure that Russia expected several orders of magnitude less of both the Ukrainian resistance and the vituperativeness of near-unanimous Western reaction, financial and diplomatic.
So for that reason, I think the Z-War (sorry, I can't think of it any other terms now) to be anywhere near worth its unforeseen costs, Russia would need to take significantly more than just the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts, which given the destruction they have or will soon suffer, are going to be net-negatives on Russia for a very long time.My concerns are more about economic and political challenges Russia will be facing. Russia is not nearly as autarkic as the USSR was, even accounting for its far smaller size. There has already a very large exodus of skilled people from the country since February, exacerbating an already existing problem. Because of the post-Soviet collapse of the education system during the 90s (it has not been fixed), there's long been a shortage of skilled Russian labour generally.As for individuals like Saker, Karlin, Andrei Martyanov, Shamir, Dmitri Orlov, and other Russians writing primarily for an English audience, yes, its very true that made much more triumphalist claims than the Russian government made to their domestic audience.
But you could also still see how the biggest official 'court' media personalities like Solovyev were full of bluster about Ukraine instantly collapsing the same way Georgia did in 2007, turning to mild unease, to despair and finally anger, over a few weeks. Again, looking at Russian media aimed at a Russian audience, from Strelkov/Gurkhin to Yuri Podolyaka to Nikolai Starikov to blogger 'Colonel Cassad', they are not painting a rosy picture. Most of them are still confident Russia will win in Ukraine and even long-term with the West, but the mood is much more grim determination than 'we're tired of winning!' rhetoric.
An intelligent ex-commenter to this website who grew up in the USSR, 'Glossy' who I occasionally interact with elsewhere, is also quite pessimistic. 'utu' has also made some points, though he's obviously an extreme partisan, I don't think he's stupid or dishonest. Well, I listened to Ritter (I haven't heard of the others), and as I said, he was much more moderate in his claims than expected, nor was he the Kremlin-shill I expected him to be. His closing comments that the American administration would alter its approach to Ukrainian problems in a less 'zero-sum' manner, with voices of people like William Burns replacing those of Victoria Nuland were hopeful, but I'm not sure if America is ready to return to a pre-Clinton worldview. But you obviously know far more of the American side of things.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Dmitry
Although I don’t understand how they are Russians? (Karlin maybe in the legal sense of having a passport and Soviet birth, but Saker is a Swiss American, with Dutch father, some mental illness. He says his mother’s grandparents were from Russia?). Also why random unemployed people, are supposed to be representative of countries? Because they post trolling posts on the internet? (Any unemployed people can do this, if they are crazy enough, but which also means they are likely idiosyncratic/not representative samples that can be used to infer about any larger groups).
In terms of economy, technology or manufacturing, it is less autarkic than countries like Turkey, let alone Spain or France.
But there is another kind of robustness, because a country’s exports (oil, gas, other natural resources), are limited in the world, and required by many countries.
Currently, first world countries want to reduce imports of the Russian oil and coal. But in response, third world countries like India are buying Russian oil (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/india-soaks-up-every-major-russian-oil-variety-as-flows-persist) and India will also resolve the Russian coal (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/after-buying-russias-discounted-oil-india-looks-to-buy-its-coal.html).
There will be discount, but commodity prices may be trending high in the next decade.
Aside from India, there is also friendship with China, who will be able to provide a technology level for Russia. This could also include the military technology. Rationally, the most effective way to rebuild the tank fleet in the Russian army, would be to buy the Type 99 tank from China. (Modernization of tanks in Russia, like T-72B3M, requires French electronics and German optics, who could be more restricted in the future).
In addition, the Western sanctions are “inconveniences”, which will result in higher prices, but not necessarily closing their flow. Kadyrov will still be ordering Maybachs, but he can order them to a friend in Armenia or China (or anyplace without sanctions). Then pay extra transport cost.
It will harm the normal consumers who are price-sensitive, but less the country’s priority spending.
The government objectives relating to the internal situation in Russia, of increasing control, closing more of the country. They will be successful probably. It’s not a bad idea for them, moving from the “managed democracy” (with all the expensive investment in pseudo-opposition media, fake polls and controlled opposition politicians), to more traditional (which is tried and tested) model of authoritarian governance.
But in terms of some kind of “objective strategic benefit” that you present to a rational citizen – Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament.
All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.
I know there's some open-source website that aggregates Tweets showing destroyed or damaged military vehicles, and I was arguing with somehow who had been citing that. But when I pointed out that it wouldn't be very hard for the CIA or MI6 or Ukrainian activists to produce fake Tweets, it sounded like the fellow had never considered that possibility.
The crucial fact is that America/NATO totally dominates the media-propaganda landscape, and promoting totally fraudulent figures for destroyed Russian tanks and planes is a lot easier than having the Ukrainians actually do that in real life.Replies: @Dmitry
Ron Unz also seems to have missed that point, in the next paragraph I was talking about muted dismay in the native Russian media landscape, amongst vatnik types (not bothering to mention anti-government popular commentators like Varlamov, Yuri Khovansky etc). I would actually say Russia entering uncharted territory here. I don't the USSR ever faced this level of international pressure, and I don't think any post-Stalin government ever became so centred around one man as Russia has become since 2010, and Putin is getting old. Anyway, the West was not magnanimous to the ex-USSR after it lost the Cold War, despite Gorbachev being perhaps the most self-abasing and foreign-approval-seeking leaders of any great power in all of history.Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
One has to be careful when you are a nation that had a nuclear deterrent.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573557/Flashback-Senator-Obama-pushed-destruction-15-000-TONS-ammunition-400-000-small-arms-1-000-anti-aircraft-missiles-Ukraine.html#ixzz2w9BpXsWd
When the black guy comes knocking on your door do not disarm. Tell the groid to fuck off.
But in terms of some kind of "objective strategic benefit" that you present to a rational citizen - Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament. All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian
If the Armata can be produced in large enough quantities though…i jest.
But in terms of some kind of "objective strategic benefit" that you present to a rational citizen - Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament. All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian
If RF will choose this option for the ongoing fight or future rematch after some operative pause in UA, we will likely see next round where mainly Western military tech will be fighting Chinese military tech instead of Soviet tech mainly used by both sides now.
But it also would likely mean near extinction of significant part of current native military tech production and RF becoming weapons net importer instead of exporter, thus further going into downward production spiral instead of achieving some autarchy nirvana.
I think that you have made a couple of statements that mischaracterized what science is but I'm a bit lazy today and don't want to debate that. However, this is very questionable: That alibi certainly doesn't apply to most people claiming to have paranormal powers. They do want to be believed and be taken seriously but none of them has ever been able to show these powers under controlled empirical conditions. If there was one single person on the planet capable of doing paranormal things it's impossible to believe that none of them has been able to win any of the decades-old succulent prizes on offer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_for_evidence_of_the_paranormal
Anyway, I hear that this canal in the Salt Flats desert is becoming more and more popular:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-t02Jx0xjinE/YQtyCI0UQrI/AAAAAAAAUlk/QOBjPTrlSmo-fc-0HhDTr-b6sOktKcx9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h328/Canal.png
It's a man-made canal of brine going from a potash factory to a distant evaporation lagoon. Man-made structures in the middle of nature usually put me off but I can understand its popularity. I once saw the canal edge in the distance while I was trying to cross the salt flats to reach the mountains in the background. I can imagine myself navigating that canal in a canoe in the future. That salty water doesn't freeze in winter.
Perhaps what I've been trying to do all my life when enjoying contact with nature is have some sort of spiritual/religious experience. Sometimes it feels like that. But that's as far as I can go: just marvel at the beauty of nature.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
There’s definitely a lot of frauds out there, but – I think we may have to re-learn to value areas of life that are inherently less susceptible to certainty, that are not “clean and tidy”.
In a way, I think part of the problem is that we’ve been brought up by our culture to say things like well, there’s lots of fraud and deception in an area, so we should totally dismiss it – only the totally certain and “unmessy” has value.
It’s like morality and ethics – lots of frauds out there who will use the language of morality to lie and cheat their way through life. That area of life simply isn’t susceptible to certainty.
And in fact, because ethical certainty and consistent behavior isn’t obtainable, because fraud and deceit are prevalent, the dominant strand in modern society – which only values the certain – says morality is bullshit and we are utterly selfish beings anyways who just pursue survival.
And yet this isn’t true 🙂
And thinking it is means the loss of a hugely important dimension in life.
Or consider this –
If paranormal powers come as the result of relinquishing the desire to dominate and control – as the spiritual literature suggests – then a genuine spiritual practitioner who agreed to participate in a scientific study to verify his powers would lose his his ability to do so – precisely because science is the effort to dominate and control.
Powers that might come as a result of relinquishing”ego” and the desire to extend human dominance may be inherently undetectable by a method that is about establishing dominance and control and furthering ego.
Most spiritual traditions say outright that powers are incidental and should not be sought.
Or consider supernatural entities –
They may have a role in choosing whether they wish to manifest, and they may represent a side of reality that is positively offended at attempts to make them reproducible and controllable 🙂
There is much more than can be said in this vein.
But the point is, the desire for “certainty” may not be the only interesting or profitable lens from which to view reality.
It may most of the most interesting sides of life aren’t susceptible to scientific certainty.
And since science itself isn’t certain, why make a fetish of it?
.
Absolutely, and this is the best approach you can possibly take in my humble opinion.
Paul Kingsnorth who used to be a secular liberal environmental activist says that when young his father would take him on long walks in the English hills and he would constantly feel a sense of numinous presence, a sense of forces and powers and presences that made him feel nature was far from senseless matter.sevukar society insisted it was. That’s why he went into environmental activism.
Only much later did he understand he was encountering the sacred and the numinous in those walks in the hills.
I feel it too!
The wilderness played an indispensable role in making me aware of the numinous recently.
A big problem with Western religion is that God is too much conceived of as “out there” and utterly beyond, and not enough as “in” everything in the world, as in other traditions.
Anyways, I believe a sense of the numinous that comes from nature – even if wordless – is one of the most authentic and pure approaches to religion there is, even without any “superstructure” of beliefs.
After all, the mystics specifically downgraded the role of beliefs and concepts.
So wherever you end up, you’re surely on one of the best paths in my opinion..
Also, you keep returning to "certainty," when the real issue is probability, or as I said earlier in our discussion, "what is the most reasonable thing to believe?"
You not only knock science but condemn all of modernity for its "left brain dominance," but the only reason you are able to employ that terminology in the first place is the very science you denigrate - except in this case, it's a bit of scientific knowledge that you like, that is suited to your cause, so it's okay. But when other people base their worldviews on knowledge derived by science - on scientific knowledge that you don't like - you hiss and scratch and bite. Then it's all narrowminded and suffocating, denying the grandeur of nature, belittling the mystery of existence, and shunning the tricksy elves.Replies: @AaronB
If you want to be credible and, more importantly, have yourself an understanding of reality, you need to allow yourself the possibility of nobody having ever shown evidence of paranormal powers under controlled conditions because perhaps nobody (or exceedingly few people) really has such powers, which also happens to be the most logical explanation.
If I claim to be able to lift a 1,000 lb rock, it is very reasonable for people who doubt my claim to ask me to show them my capabilities under conditions where they can verify my feat: weigh the rock, lift it in front of them with no artificial help, etc. If I then claim that I am only able to do it when people aren't watching me with such left-brained ideas in their minds, I must be prepared to not be believed.
Likewise, I think that if Barbarossa is able to detect objects underground with his dowsing rods with an accuracy higher than pure chance, he is missing the opportunity to pocket $250,000. That's what the Center for Inquiry Investigations Group in the US has been offering anyone with that kind of powers since the year 2000 and nobody has been able to get the prize yet. I don't know why he shouldn't give it a try. He could maybe pay his mortgage off or do something useful for him or his loved ones with that money. He could even give all the money to a charity if he feels that showing his skills for selfish reasons would somehow spoil the experiment.
But note that I am not saying that we shouldn't have an open mind. There are certainly many things that we don't know and some of them are quite mysterious, like the UFO stuff that I didn't believe in until recently but after the latest revelations by the US military appear to be real phenomena.Replies: @Barbarossa, @AaronB
Denmark is an insular, collectivist society, with its people known for their strange stubborn personalities, and who are usually not shy with their views. Denmark people also have the collective confidence of being from a successful society and belief in their superior wisdom (e.g. of their high taxes, compared to the USA). I don’t guess it is a society that would be very influenced by political opinions of newly arriving refugees.
Ukrainian refugees which would have influence in Denmark, would likely have to assimilate rapidly to the middle class culture. Probably they would need to arrive in Denmark while they were still teenagers and really not be viewed as foreigners by the local population.
There are millions of Poles in Western Europe without much public political activity, and most of them would support moderate liberalism.
Although, of course, self-selecting Polish immigrants, and postsoviet Ukrainian refugees, are a very different situation, and the countries are a long distance in terms of development. Still, Poland and the newly formed Ukrainian identity, are both super-nationalist. But Polish immigrants are not trying to impose any Polish culture. This super-nationalism is the probably the only area where they are rejecting an accepted Western behavior and it doesn’t see much imposing of their foreign nationalism on the local society.
In some cases this will be overlooked because of Russia's actions. They will be treated just like the Poles, but maybe with more sympathy because of the war. I noticed that some of my SWPL acquaintances have already started signaling, using volunteerism for Ukraine. That's not necessarily bad for Ukraine if it's used wisely and not messed up through political partisanship. (Of course, there are normal volunteers, too, to whom this has nothing to do about status and who have been volunteers already since 2014).
What I meant by having a debate about this, is that it would be encouraging to have a debate more similar to the EU Constitution, to try to accept each other without forcing a value set on the other side. Of course, the EU will stress that values are not up for debate, but these things can be talked about in a moderate and respectful manner. It doesn't mean each country has to change its culture, it's just to reach an understanding that within a union, which is so large, there will be different traditional undercurrents for various cultures. This should be ok, as long as basic rights are met. Ukraine together with Poland could influence this climate of values.
You may not be familiar with this, but there was a European wide debate about the EU Constitutional Treaty some 15 years ago, the treaty was not ratified, but it involved a wide debate about many issues on a grassroots level. If this talk about Ukraine eventually (and potentially quite soon) joining the EU has any merit, it might be wise to think about this, because if you bring in another large, relatively non-woke country into the fold, you want to be prepared.
Same thing for Ukraine itself. A wide public debate about the EU is sorely needed. What I see on the Ukrainian media is just pure acceptance (except the nationalists who are comparatively few), not intricate debate about what this would mean. We should continue to engage, but the Ukrainians need to be informed that the EU membership means giving up some sovereignty. It is for them to weigh it out.
Besides... most Ukrainian men aren't even that "homophobic". They're mostly mellow dudes who don't want it to be in their face the whole time. Blaming them for some kind of "past injustices" is totally useless as they will simply not take that seriously. We're on a completely different vibe here. They are the victims, they are the fighters overcoming adversity. They could cruise on that ethos for a good decade.
Btw, it is mostly the Ukrainians from the East who are fleeing West, and they are more secular, the Western Ukrainians, who are more traditional, conservative & LGBT skeptic, are staying put in Western Ukraine. Most of them are in Poland anyway where they will not have any issues re: wokeness (that is literally like the last thing on everyone's mind right now). Many in places like Romania, Moldova, same there.
There is a difference between tolerating difference and an expectation to signal that one is woke. When there is an expectation to signal, that's when it feels too totalitarian and will not be acceptable to the Cossack character. They are more freedom loving than the average contemporary Central or Northern European, that's a path to greatness and shouldn't be stifled.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
Most certainly nothing would have happened had the ‘West’ not clamored loudly and consistently that its historical mission was to ‘cancel’ Russia and her Christian culture, to ‘punish’, humiliate, insult and inflict maximum pain on her peoples and lord over them in the name of ‘western’ lofty ideals and ‘values’. There is a spiritual dimension.
But the West found out that ”it is hard for thee to kick against the pricks”. Hence their rage.
There will be a cultural barrier of pride to buying publicly Chinese military equipment. It’s not like buying Mistral class ships from France, as France is accepted as “superior”, while China was always something looked down at in terms of the military comparisons. From the political view, China was probably supposed to buy Russian/Soviet equipment, not the other way round.
But installing Chinese electronics in the tanks, would not be known by many in the public (as currently they install French electronics to operate the modernized tanks, without much publicization of the reality inside the tanks).
From what I read, China’s Type 99A tank is not supposed to be bad at all. China could also probably produce for export hundreds of tanks of these modern tanks each year. It’s probably unlikely, but this would perhaps be a rational way to rapid rebuilding of the land army.
To all the good Irish people and Irish interested-people here discussing Ireland’s identity – here is a wonderful piece by Paul Kingsnorth discussing the unique and “wild” quality of Irish spirituality.
Kingsnorth is an Englishman who recently bought land on Ireland, and is struck by the special quality of the spirituality there, the shrines and caves and holy mountains and saints that seem still so deeply a part of the land and cultural fabric there.
Kingsnorth’s “project” so to speak might be described as the “rewilding” of Christianity – to reconnect it to wilderness and nature.
It’s interesting, but if you look at Jesus’ sayings they promote a way of life that is simple, natural, and very free of the complexities of urban life – and he spent most of his life in rural areas or wilderness. Yet the heavily urbanized nature of late antiquity made Christianity acquire an overly urban cast, only intermittently acknowledging it’s inherent connection to natural settings on the Desert Father’s, monasteries, and hermits and recluses – at least in the West.
Anyways, here you go – it’s a great piece.
https://paulkingsnorth.substack.com/p/splendour-of-fire-speed-of-lightning?s=r
In one (historical), there were services at a mass rock, when the priest-hunters showed up. Immediately, the priest dived into a swiftly-moving, nearby river, and swam across, while I believe the crowd cheered him.
In another, a pieta was taken from a church (I believe one of my ancestors, though he may have been away) before the approach of Cromwell's army, which stabled their horses in the church. In order to protect it, the pieta was buried in a bog. It is said that some 50-70 years later, the last man who was living, who knew where it was buried, was carried to the spot, on his deathbed, and pointed it out.
And, of course, it was common for fishermen to tie a crucifix and a bottle of holy water inside a curragh. I think the story of St. Brendan's voyages hits upon the inherent spirituality of the sea.
It has been a while so…
😁Open Thread Humor😂
Open [MORE] for a robbery stopped by an improve flamethrower.
More non-political items than usual.
PEACE 😇
Well, as I said above, most Ukrainians will not impose their views in a foreign country (until there is a large enough number of them). Women tend to be more more adaptable, and those men who will be there will not be too vocal. However, Ukrainian refugees have a special status. The suffering of the Ukrainian nation is being recognized (not on this forum but out there in the real world). There has been immense kindness shown to them. As is deserved. I think the original thought was — will the Western Europeans stop helping Ukrainians when they find out that they’re more conservative or even bigoted (by Western standards) than expected? Will it be some kind of a “rude awakening”?
In some cases this will be overlooked because of Russia’s actions. They will be treated just like the Poles, but maybe with more sympathy because of the war. I noticed that some of my SWPL acquaintances have already started signaling, using volunteerism for Ukraine. That’s not necessarily bad for Ukraine if it’s used wisely and not messed up through political partisanship. (Of course, there are normal volunteers, too, to whom this has nothing to do about status and who have been volunteers already since 2014).
What I meant by having a debate about this, is that it would be encouraging to have a debate more similar to the EU Constitution, to try to accept each other without forcing a value set on the other side. Of course, the EU will stress that values are not up for debate, but these things can be talked about in a moderate and respectful manner. It doesn’t mean each country has to change its culture, it’s just to reach an understanding that within a union, which is so large, there will be different traditional undercurrents for various cultures. This should be ok, as long as basic rights are met. Ukraine together with Poland could influence this climate of values.
You may not be familiar with this, but there was a European wide debate about the EU Constitutional Treaty some 15 years ago, the treaty was not ratified, but it involved a wide debate about many issues on a grassroots level. If this talk about Ukraine eventually (and potentially quite soon) joining the EU has any merit, it might be wise to think about this, because if you bring in another large, relatively non-woke country into the fold, you want to be prepared.
Same thing for Ukraine itself. A wide public debate about the EU is sorely needed. What I see on the Ukrainian media is just pure acceptance (except the nationalists who are comparatively few), not intricate debate about what this would mean. We should continue to engage, but the Ukrainians need to be informed that the EU membership means giving up some sovereignty. It is for them to weigh it out.
Besides… most Ukrainian men aren’t even that “homophobic”. They’re mostly mellow dudes who don’t want it to be in their face the whole time. Blaming them for some kind of “past injustices” is totally useless as they will simply not take that seriously. We’re on a completely different vibe here. They are the victims, they are the fighters overcoming adversity. They could cruise on that ethos for a good decade.
Btw, it is mostly the Ukrainians from the East who are fleeing West, and they are more secular, the Western Ukrainians, who are more traditional, conservative & LGBT skeptic, are staying put in Western Ukraine. Most of them are in Poland anyway where they will not have any issues re: wokeness (that is literally like the last thing on everyone’s mind right now). Many in places like Romania, Moldova, same there.
There is a difference between tolerating difference and an expectation to signal that one is woke. When there is an expectation to signal, that’s when it feels too totalitarian and will not be acceptable to the Cossack character. They are more freedom loving than the average contemporary Central or Northern European, that’s a path to greatness and shouldn’t be stifled.
https://youtu.be/_IkOXbSqqZs?t=307Replies: @Beckow
That is a fantasy. There are no advanced weapons that can be brought to the war theatre – fighter planes, advanced missiles, etc… It simply is not possible at this point since the infrastructure for it has been destroyed. They could had tried before the war, but in that case Russia would had started sooner and destroyed them on their way in. This is the dilemma of fighting in Russia’s front-yard – they control what comes in.
What Ukraine is getting are mundane weapons that will prolong fighting but can’t change the basic equation of a weaker military fighting a much stronger enemy. The only way Kiev could win is if Russia’s morale would collapse. Thus the Western PR campaign, but it doesn’t seem to be working. A few more pieces of artillery won’t do it.
China is the winner. But it was the extremely unwise policy by the US that gave China the victory: they broke every common sense rule about why it is not a good idea for pushing China and Russia into what is now an unbreakable alliance. They gave China all they could dream off. As if they were directed or paid to do it. Now we will live with the consequences.
Saying something so stupid only humiliated Biden and by extension America for being represented by him. Saying stupid inane things doesn’t hurt the enemy and it reflects badly on people who take it seriously. I hope you don’t, or do you?
https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/babylon_bee_predicted_ny_times_meltdown_6-5-20.jpg
https://cdn.acidcow.com/uploads/posts/2022-04/1650561254_1.gif
https://cdn.acidcow.com/uploads/posts/2022-04/1649964194_20.gif
https://cdn.creators.com/1054/324267/324267_image.jpg
https://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-09-at-5.15.38-PM.png
https://ace.mu.nu/archives/panties.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/22V5fD2.jpg
https://ace.mu.nu/archives/tranny%20sink.jpg
https://cdn.acidcow.com/uploads/posts/2022-04/1650563209_1650561382_fn_27.jpg
https://cdn.acidcow.com/uploads/posts/2022-04/1650561289_14.gifReplies: @Yellowface Anon
the Medieval Pepe looking cool
and onto the threshhold of the modern
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girl_with_a_Pearl_Earring
In some cases this will be overlooked because of Russia's actions. They will be treated just like the Poles, but maybe with more sympathy because of the war. I noticed that some of my SWPL acquaintances have already started signaling, using volunteerism for Ukraine. That's not necessarily bad for Ukraine if it's used wisely and not messed up through political partisanship. (Of course, there are normal volunteers, too, to whom this has nothing to do about status and who have been volunteers already since 2014).
What I meant by having a debate about this, is that it would be encouraging to have a debate more similar to the EU Constitution, to try to accept each other without forcing a value set on the other side. Of course, the EU will stress that values are not up for debate, but these things can be talked about in a moderate and respectful manner. It doesn't mean each country has to change its culture, it's just to reach an understanding that within a union, which is so large, there will be different traditional undercurrents for various cultures. This should be ok, as long as basic rights are met. Ukraine together with Poland could influence this climate of values.
You may not be familiar with this, but there was a European wide debate about the EU Constitutional Treaty some 15 years ago, the treaty was not ratified, but it involved a wide debate about many issues on a grassroots level. If this talk about Ukraine eventually (and potentially quite soon) joining the EU has any merit, it might be wise to think about this, because if you bring in another large, relatively non-woke country into the fold, you want to be prepared.
Same thing for Ukraine itself. A wide public debate about the EU is sorely needed. What I see on the Ukrainian media is just pure acceptance (except the nationalists who are comparatively few), not intricate debate about what this would mean. We should continue to engage, but the Ukrainians need to be informed that the EU membership means giving up some sovereignty. It is for them to weigh it out.
Besides... most Ukrainian men aren't even that "homophobic". They're mostly mellow dudes who don't want it to be in their face the whole time. Blaming them for some kind of "past injustices" is totally useless as they will simply not take that seriously. We're on a completely different vibe here. They are the victims, they are the fighters overcoming adversity. They could cruise on that ethos for a good decade.
Btw, it is mostly the Ukrainians from the East who are fleeing West, and they are more secular, the Western Ukrainians, who are more traditional, conservative & LGBT skeptic, are staying put in Western Ukraine. Most of them are in Poland anyway where they will not have any issues re: wokeness (that is literally like the last thing on everyone's mind right now). Many in places like Romania, Moldova, same there.
There is a difference between tolerating difference and an expectation to signal that one is woke. When there is an expectation to signal, that's when it feels too totalitarian and will not be acceptable to the Cossack character. They are more freedom loving than the average contemporary Central or Northern European, that's a path to greatness and shouldn't be stifled.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
I genuinely wonder what could be the attitude to Taiwanese refugees, HK emigrants and Chinese emigrants in the case of a “military reunification” of Taiwan. I wager it would be analogous to Ukrainians, Belarussians and Russians in the current conflict, if strong ostracism of China became the consensus of the West.
But the West found out that ''it is hard for thee to kick against the pricks''. Hence their rage.Replies: @Beckow
Leopards don’t change their spots. The attempt to cancel Russia is built into the Western worldview. After each failed attempt, they retrench, behave for a few generations, and then try again. It is just the way they are. The damn Russian resources and its size and proximity are simply too tempting. Plus the history: there are endless myths, narratives, scores to be settled, and pure tribal and family hatreds.
One can even find it on the European provincial periphery among the likes of Swedes, Romanians and Finns – you scratch them and the deep dislike, hunger for plunder combined with fear are right under their skins. It is incurable.
Must feel great, even a little bit awesome, to be such a moral exemplar.Replies: @Beckow
Which you, and perhaps your side as a whole, are largely free from.
Must feel great, even a little bit awesome, to be such a moral exemplar.
So you trying to put equivalence there lacks facts to show that Russia is doing the same as Nato and the West.
In a way, I think part of the problem is that we've been brought up by our culture to say things like well, there's lots of fraud and deception in an area, so we should totally dismiss it - only the totally certain and "unmessy" has value.
It's like morality and ethics - lots of frauds out there who will use the language of morality to lie and cheat their way through life. That area of life simply isn't susceptible to certainty.
And in fact, because ethical certainty and consistent behavior isn't obtainable, because fraud and deceit are prevalent, the dominant strand in modern society - which only values the certain - says morality is bullshit and we are utterly selfish beings anyways who just pursue survival.
And yet this isn't true :)
And thinking it is means the loss of a hugely important dimension in life.
Or consider this -
If paranormal powers come as the result of relinquishing the desire to dominate and control - as the spiritual literature suggests - then a genuine spiritual practitioner who agreed to participate in a scientific study to verify his powers would lose his his ability to do so - precisely because science is the effort to dominate and control.
Powers that might come as a result of relinquishing"ego" and the desire to extend human dominance may be inherently undetectable by a method that is about establishing dominance and control and furthering ego.
Most spiritual traditions say outright that powers are incidental and should not be sought.
Or consider supernatural entities -
They may have a role in choosing whether they wish to manifest, and they may represent a side of reality that is positively offended at attempts to make them reproducible and controllable :)
There is much more than can be said in this vein.
But the point is, the desire for "certainty" may not be the only interesting or profitable lens from which to view reality.
It may most of the most interesting sides of life aren't susceptible to scientific certainty.
And since science itself isn't certain, why make a fetish of it? .
Absolutely, and this is the best approach you can possibly take in my humble opinion.
Paul Kingsnorth who used to be a secular liberal environmental activist says that when young his father would take him on long walks in the English hills and he would constantly feel a sense of numinous presence, a sense of forces and powers and presences that made him feel nature was far from senseless matter.sevukar society insisted it was. That's why he went into environmental activism.
Only much later did he understand he was encountering the sacred and the numinous in those walks in the hills.
I feel it too!
The wilderness played an indispensable role in making me aware of the numinous recently.
A big problem with Western religion is that God is too much conceived of as "out there" and utterly beyond, and not enough as "in" everything in the world, as in other traditions.
Anyways, I believe a sense of the numinous that comes from nature - even if wordless - is one of the most authentic and pure approaches to religion there is, even without any "superstructure" of beliefs.
After all, the mystics specifically downgraded the role of beliefs and concepts.
So wherever you end up, you're surely on one of the best paths in my opinion..Replies: @silviosilver, @Mikel
In my book, scientific knowledge is the most reliable kind of knowledge. I can’t see any way of stating this opinion without it being characterized as “fetishizing” science.
Also, you keep returning to “certainty,” when the real issue is probability, or as I said earlier in our discussion, “what is the most reasonable thing to believe?”
You not only knock science but condemn all of modernity for its “left brain dominance,” but the only reason you are able to employ that terminology in the first place is the very science you denigrate – except in this case, it’s a bit of scientific knowledge that you like, that is suited to your cause, so it’s okay. But when other people base their worldviews on knowledge derived by science – on scientific knowledge that you don’t like – you hiss and scratch and bite. Then it’s all narrowminded and suffocating, denying the grandeur of nature, belittling the mystery of existence, and shunning the tricksy elves.
Renaissance
and onto the threshhold of the modern
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girl_with_a_Pearl_Earring
Must feel great, even a little bit awesome, to be such a moral exemplar.Replies: @Beckow
I try, and I don’t have a ‘side’. I am sure Russia has its share of myths and tribalism. But I am not aware of a Russian move on the West in my generation: they didn’t build bases, placed missiles, organized military alliances, etc…
So you trying to put equivalence there lacks facts to show that Russia is doing the same as Nato and the West.
You mean if they fled to Europe? Do you think that’s possible? Wouldn’t they predominantly go someplace such as Canada or Australia? I don’t think it would be negative at all, but it might be in some ways different than towards Ukrainians who are culturally close (in Europe at least).
Let’s hope it won’t go that far. China’s moves so far have been quite cautious and pragmatic. Frankly, I feared it would be much worse for Ukraine with China siding with Russia fully, but they haven’t it seems. It seems China is now looking for alternate routes for their goods (mostly in the south).
But in terms of some kind of "objective strategic benefit" that you present to a rational citizen - Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament. All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian
Is that really correct? What’s the hard evidence for those figures, which seem awfully high to me?
I know there’s some open-source website that aggregates Tweets showing destroyed or damaged military vehicles, and I was arguing with somehow who had been citing that. But when I pointed out that it wouldn’t be very hard for the CIA or MI6 or Ukrainian activists to produce fake Tweets, it sounded like the fellow had never considered that possibility.
The crucial fact is that America/NATO totally dominates the media-propaganda landscape, and promoting totally fraudulent figures for destroyed Russian tanks and planes is a lot easier than having the Ukrainians actually do that in real life.
But apart from their opinions, they are definitely pedantic people who want to count everything obsessively. Sure, it is possible. I trust Oryx as having honest intention, because they post usually multiple photos for each equipment they count, so there is indication they are trying to avoid double counts. In this war, I'm seeing video and photo evidence everyday of loss of the most advanced equipment, so whether we believe Oryx or not as a bible, there is significant loss of the advanced models. - In terms of the most advanced equipment of the Russian army.
In 2021, There are there are active supposedly 530 T-72B3M. 850 T-72B3. 310 active T-80BV. 140 T-80BVM. 350 active T-90 of all types. Somewhere around 2000 active relatively modernized tanks (1990s and later models), if you believe such numbers. When people talk about many thousands of tanks, they are meaning older equipment in reserve. This doesn't have modern electronics and modern optics (from Thales). If reserves and conscripts are mobilized, there could be a much larger army. But the quality of equipment will be lower than used by active professional army. How many of reserve tanks (stored outside) will be operational is probably another question. After this war ends, the land army will have significantly less advanced equipment than before. For re-armament, in theory China can surely rapidly supply Type 99A tanks (which are believed to be better anyway), but knowing local politics, it's probably unlikely they would buy Chinese tanks. Instead, there will be more modernization again from the stock of T-72. If there were 530 T-72B3M 2016 edition in 2021, it seems like they were modernizing maybe over a hundred per year before the war. China could likely supply electronics and optics for this modernization. Although China itself has advanced tanks now according to the defense journalists that could have just been imported.Replies: @utu, @Ron Unz
There’s another Imran Khan who is a British MP and apparently a pederast.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9790843/Tory-MP-Imran-Ahmad-Khan-47-faces-court-today-charge-molested-15-year-old-boy-2008.html
Stockholm released a new cycling plan (Swedish, pdf). Among the highlights:
– Cyclists will be allowed to turn right on red traffic lights, like they already can in Denmark and the Netherlands.
– Double the share of cyclists who use it as their primary means of transportation from 12% today to 25% by 2040. A doubling in 18 years may sound impressive but it’s fairly conservative. Copenhagen is at ~50%.
– Massively increase bikepaths for narrow streets and invest more to separate them from car traffic, rather than just painting a lick of red paint on the road and force cyclists who drive unprotected around cars.
– Put a ceiling at 30 km/h for carspeeds when bicycles and cars share the same spaces. If you want higher speeds, there has to be a seperate lane (which is protected by physical barriers) for cyclists.
– More Dutch-style cycling garages and parking spots. Too many parking spots for cycles only function horizontally rather than vertically. You can always stack at least two bicycles on top of each other on any random street if you install the right equipment.
If you build a proper garage, we’re talking far more. These garages take up far less space than car garages, which means the overall space in any city devoted to parking should decrease, thus freeing up space for parks, recreation and residential housing. Improving the overall quality of life.
All in all, it’s a big step up but still short of what needs to be done. A few interesting graphs caught my eye:
Primary transportation means that people are using, today:
Cars (pink) are only 10% of the primary means of transportation for the inner city and 19% for the overall city. What surprised me is how dominant public transportation (light blue) is for the outer parts (västerort, söderort). I had expected higher rates for cars. That also means that once/when cars are banished, the fight will move to cyclists vs public transportation. That’s a far harder fight to win for my side.
When people are asked what they want in their neighbourhood, they put public transportation first and bike paths second, but sadly car parking is third. Still a significant reactionary segment left in the city, which is slowing down progress. Still, this is a good leading indicator and it shows that the city’s leadership is probably not radical enough and too conservative.
Also: what brand of gloves do you use? : )Replies: @Thulean Friend
When not in use, I keep my bike in my porch which has an open air screen. I cover it with two rain coats and a tarpaulin. I’ve to frequently lube the chain and WD40 its metallic components (frame being aluminum) to protect against rust. So far so good, coming on two years after purchase.
I know there's some open-source website that aggregates Tweets showing destroyed or damaged military vehicles, and I was arguing with somehow who had been citing that. But when I pointed out that it wouldn't be very hard for the CIA or MI6 or Ukrainian activists to produce fake Tweets, it sounded like the fellow had never considered that possibility.
The crucial fact is that America/NATO totally dominates the media-propaganda landscape, and promoting totally fraudulent figures for destroyed Russian tanks and planes is a lot easier than having the Ukrainians actually do that in real life.Replies: @Dmitry
Oryx is two people in Netherlands (Stijn Mitzer, Joost Oliemans). Mitzer is a journalist for Janes (a defense industry magazine). Oliemans just seems a student of mathematics (https://www.linkedin.com/in/joost-oliemans-1628a091)
I have been reading Oryx for years now, as it is the most popular blogger when there is war. I was posting about Oryx on this forum in 2020 for the Nagorno-Karabakh war. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-127/#comment-4284360
In terms of Oryx bias, they have a pro-Turkey bias, and anti-US, anti-Israel bias (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/american-duplicity-who-in-washington-is.html). This war there is anti-Russia bias.
But apart from their opinions, they are definitely pedantic people who want to count everything obsessively.
Sure, it is possible.
I trust Oryx as having honest intention, because they post usually multiple photos for each equipment they count, so there is indication they are trying to avoid double counts.
In this war, I’m seeing video and photo evidence everyday of loss of the most advanced equipment, so whether we believe Oryx or not as a bible, there is significant loss of the advanced models.
–
In terms of the most advanced equipment of the Russian army.
In 2021, There are there are active supposedly 530 T-72B3M. 850 T-72B3. 310 active T-80BV. 140 T-80BVM. 350 active T-90 of all types. Somewhere around 2000 active relatively modernized tanks (1990s and later models), if you believe such numbers.
When people talk about many thousands of tanks, they are meaning older equipment in reserve. This doesn’t have modern electronics and modern optics (from Thales).
If reserves and conscripts are mobilized, there could be a much larger army. But the quality of equipment will be lower than used by active professional army. How many of reserve tanks (stored outside) will be operational is probably another question.
After this war ends, the land army will have significantly less advanced equipment than before.
For re-armament, in theory China can surely rapidly supply Type 99A tanks (which are believed to be better anyway), but knowing local politics, it’s probably unlikely they would buy Chinese tanks. Instead, there will be more modernization again from the stock of T-72. If there were 530 T-72B3M 2016 edition in 2021, it seems like they were modernizing maybe over a hundred per year before the war. China could likely supply electronics and optics for this modernization. Although China itself has advanced tanks now according to the defense journalists that could have just been imported.
Russian claims are more recent while Ukraine claims are consistent (continuously growing) from the very beginning. Both could be propaganda but then it would mean that Russia is trying to match Ukrainian propaganda. Why? Unless Ukrainian claims are true?Replies: @sudden death
The anti-Russian side totally dominates media/propaganda, and from the very beginning they've been producing the most utterly ridiculous and dishonest propaganda that was widely reported and believed by people on social media in the West.
It's also pretty clear that the Ukrainians have committed the most totally horrific war-crimes but then managed to get the media to pretend it was the Russians, such as the Bucha massacre and the missile hitting the railway station. Compared to that, faking a few photos or Tweets of destroyed Russian tanks is utterly trivial.
You seem like a young, extremely gullible person who spends all his time on social media and tends to believe whatever he sees. If you were living in America, you'd probably believe that blacks like George Floyd were saintly victims of white police-killers and that people had 17 different genders.
Since I don't have great military expertise and I don't waste my time watching war-porn on social media, my interpretation of the state of the conflict is primarily derived from the extensive public presentations of people like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, who do have that expertise and don't seem like they would have any particular reason to lie or distort. Maybe they're all totally wrong, but I'd trust them over random Tweets showing destroyed Russian vehicles.Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1517292563962597377
And Russia is just as decadent as the West anyway. Those who believe otherwise are dupes or just desperate. Some performative gestures by a chekist turned mobster don’t amount to anything substantial. Ukraine was better off than Russia in terms of social health before the war
But in terms of some kind of "objective strategic benefit" that you present to a rational citizen - Ukraine will be more militarily powerful after this, while at least 1/4, if not 1/3 of the modernized equipment in the Russian professional land army has already been lost. It would be years to re-attain the level of external military power, that existed February 2022, unless there was some shortcut (such as buying Chinese military equipment) that would allow rapid re-armament. All LatW and Suddendeath can probably relax for now, unless they think Baltic armies can really not manage invasion by T-72-A from 1979, emptied from a Soviet storage warehouse.Replies: @Wokechoke, @sudden death, @Ron Unz, @Yevardian
I quite specifically mentioned those in the context of Russians producing content primarily for a foreign/English-speaking audience. Anyway, I definitely don’t think any first generation person can ever meaningfully really change their ethnic identity.
Ron Unz also seems to have missed that point, in the next paragraph I was talking about muted dismay in the native Russian media landscape, amongst vatnik types (not bothering to mention anti-government popular commentators like Varlamov, Yuri Khovansky etc).
I would actually say Russia entering uncharted territory here. I don’t the USSR ever faced this level of international pressure, and I don’t think any post-Stalin government ever became so centred around one man as Russia has become since 2010, and Putin is getting old. Anyway, the West was not magnanimous to the ex-USSR after it lost the Cold War, despite Gorbachev being perhaps the most self-abasing and foreign-approval-seeking leaders of any great power in all of history.
The more things changes the more they stay the same - the West has the economic and moral argument in Cold War I, but now that the economic argument is denuded and the moral argument been twisted by wokeness, the forceful coercion that has always been how anyone enforces his ideology takes over and they've fallen from the moral high ground.
It is partly because even the journalists are not sure what the new rules are. They are not allowed to call the special operation "war". There will be some kind of penalty if they use such a word. This funny in context of reading the articles in the kremlinbot sites, about destroying "bandermobils" and "ukronazi tanks", they cannot say it is war, even when they would like to. https://tsargrad.tv/materials/rubric/nashi-geroiReplies: @LatW
Ron Unz also seems to have missed that point, in the next paragraph I was talking about muted dismay in the native Russian media landscape, amongst vatnik types (not bothering to mention anti-government popular commentators like Varlamov, Yuri Khovansky etc). I would actually say Russia entering uncharted territory here. I don't the USSR ever faced this level of international pressure, and I don't think any post-Stalin government ever became so centred around one man as Russia has become since 2010, and Putin is getting old. Anyway, the West was not magnanimous to the ex-USSR after it lost the Cold War, despite Gorbachev being perhaps the most self-abasing and foreign-approval-seeking leaders of any great power in all of history.Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
Putin perhaps had a stroke or is suffering from Parkinson’s. Truly nightmarish situation here as a withering, semi-lucid husk holds the fate of millions or even billions in his hands. https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1517070500320718850?t=UUz1nW5KZtO0ke_lBJCcbQ&s=19
Frankly Putin seems very healthy for someone his age. Presumably his obsession with appearances comes from memories of late Soviet gerontocracy, or how Primakov was attacked on the media for his knee-surgery.Replies: @Thrax
In some cases this will be overlooked because of Russia's actions. They will be treated just like the Poles, but maybe with more sympathy because of the war. I noticed that some of my SWPL acquaintances have already started signaling, using volunteerism for Ukraine. That's not necessarily bad for Ukraine if it's used wisely and not messed up through political partisanship. (Of course, there are normal volunteers, too, to whom this has nothing to do about status and who have been volunteers already since 2014).
What I meant by having a debate about this, is that it would be encouraging to have a debate more similar to the EU Constitution, to try to accept each other without forcing a value set on the other side. Of course, the EU will stress that values are not up for debate, but these things can be talked about in a moderate and respectful manner. It doesn't mean each country has to change its culture, it's just to reach an understanding that within a union, which is so large, there will be different traditional undercurrents for various cultures. This should be ok, as long as basic rights are met. Ukraine together with Poland could influence this climate of values.
You may not be familiar with this, but there was a European wide debate about the EU Constitutional Treaty some 15 years ago, the treaty was not ratified, but it involved a wide debate about many issues on a grassroots level. If this talk about Ukraine eventually (and potentially quite soon) joining the EU has any merit, it might be wise to think about this, because if you bring in another large, relatively non-woke country into the fold, you want to be prepared.
Same thing for Ukraine itself. A wide public debate about the EU is sorely needed. What I see on the Ukrainian media is just pure acceptance (except the nationalists who are comparatively few), not intricate debate about what this would mean. We should continue to engage, but the Ukrainians need to be informed that the EU membership means giving up some sovereignty. It is for them to weigh it out.
Besides... most Ukrainian men aren't even that "homophobic". They're mostly mellow dudes who don't want it to be in their face the whole time. Blaming them for some kind of "past injustices" is totally useless as they will simply not take that seriously. We're on a completely different vibe here. They are the victims, they are the fighters overcoming adversity. They could cruise on that ethos for a good decade.
Btw, it is mostly the Ukrainians from the East who are fleeing West, and they are more secular, the Western Ukrainians, who are more traditional, conservative & LGBT skeptic, are staying put in Western Ukraine. Most of them are in Poland anyway where they will not have any issues re: wokeness (that is literally like the last thing on everyone's mind right now). Many in places like Romania, Moldova, same there.
There is a difference between tolerating difference and an expectation to signal that one is woke. When there is an expectation to signal, that's when it feels too totalitarian and will not be acceptable to the Cossack character. They are more freedom loving than the average contemporary Central or Northern European, that's a path to greatness and shouldn't be stifled.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
They might have more conservative declaration of political views (although not in terms of actual lifestyle) than North-West Europeans. But they are less conservative on average in all ways than most refugees to Western countries who are from Syria, Eritrea, Colombia, etc.
Problem for honeymoon with Western Europe, will be (as for all open borders style immigration) more in terms of the movement of mafia and other kinds of crime and criminals from Ukraine, will start creating problems in Western countries.
But EU has open borders with countries like Romania and Bulgaria, so Ukraine cannot be any worse. If Europe can survive open borders with Romania, then Ukraine will be easy for them.
Well, Western Ukraine is only slightly damaged. Eastern Ukraine is becoming destroyed.
Dnepropetrovsk has survived fortunately without war. Kharkov is already like London in “the Blitz” (someone needs to explain what the “strategic purpose” could be, of destroying one of the most historic Russian cities), while Mariupol just not a city anymore, looks almost like Hiroshima 1945, or at least Grozny in 2000.
Yes, it's a risk because whoever wants to can take advantage of these unfortunate circumstances, however, it's not your typical Ukrainian refugee (who are women and children, at least a third or more (!!!) of them are children, and it looks like a huge percentage of Ukrainian children are now abroad which is very sad). I saw a report about a group of particularly vulnerable refugees that had traveled if I'm not mistaken from Sumy to Latvia, they were a group of handicapped people who were received by the local Samaritans organization. There was one person who was so vulnerable that they couldn't even sit up -- I can't even describe how I felt for those who have started this war when I saw that, imagining what this person had to go through being forced to take such a journey.
It might be that some will go back, as soon as they can, it must be difficult for them to stay away from their spouses, especially in these circumstances. So this is not a typical "open borders" situation where people travel to the West to take advantage. Yes, thankfully (even though the airport was bombed). I'm hoping the Russians won't be able to reach Dnipro, the distance from their troops in the north and the south is 700km, it wouldn't be easy to close that distance and occupy all that area with the current concentration of the troops. I'm sure Dnipro is a fortress by now (Yarosh is there). It's like WW2.. but Kharkiv changed hands back then several times... unthinkable tragedy. Mariupol is no more. Only an idea in our minds. It was a beautiful city, too. Beyond heartbreaking... There could be an irrational element to this. There is a Russophone identity there that is different from the Moscovite one. Have you heard of the Belarusian band Brutto? They wrote a song called Воины света (Warriors of Light) that became the anthem for Maidan (and was also sung during the Belarusian protests). Became a very popular song for the Belarusian and Ukrainian youth. To me, this song encapsulates this new Ukrainian Russophone identity or maybe even a wider non Moscovite Russophone identity. It is triumphalist, masculine, a bit playful, very freedom-loving. But contrarian to Moscow. It seems that Moscow noticed this, after one of their plunder or killing episodes the Russian troops wrote mockingly Воины света on somebody's wall before they left. So it's clear they're very resentful of that identity, and maybe hate it even more than the one in Lviv. The Lviv one is more distant, but this one is very close.
https://song-story.ru/voiny-sveta-lyapis/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYsN0uif-_wReplies: @Dmitry
What Ukraine is getting are mundane weapons that will prolong fighting but can't change the basic equation of a weaker military fighting a much stronger enemy. The only way Kiev could win is if Russia's morale would collapse. Thus the Western PR campaign, but it doesn't seem to be working. A few more pieces of artillery won't do it.
China is the winner. But it was the extremely unwise policy by the US that gave China the victory: they broke every common sense rule about why it is not a good idea for pushing China and Russia into what is now an unbreakable alliance. They gave China all they could dream off. As if they were directed or paid to do it. Now we will live with the consequences. Saying something so stupid only humiliated Biden and by extension America for being represented by him. Saying stupid inane things doesn't hurt the enemy and it reflects badly on people who take it seriously. I hope you don't, or do you?Replies: @Sean
But it is the ambition of those in charge of Ukraine, and they will claim to be losing in order to get more and better weapons. It is a fact that around Kiev Russia went on the offensive and then withdrew with non trivial losses.. Ukraine is going to try get it to do the same in Donbass. We don’t know if that is unrealistic in view of the underwhelming ability of the Russian army’s to execution their own high command’s operational plan of attack. It is not obvious that Ukraine is outnumbered even 2:1 in Donbass and Russia is going up against prepared fortifications. Their attack is developing at the speed of dry rot which suggests the generals are unenthusiastic and extremely wary of advancing against the Ukrainians.
But in the war we are talking about the little -regarded tactically defensive weapons (NLAW) have been the most important. Ukraine is getting almost 100 towed long range howitzers plus 144,000 rounds of ammunition for them (the equivalent of) 5 battalions of US long range artillery blasting away none stop with counter battery radar pinpointing the Russian guns. And add to that omnipresent drones of all types from surveillance/ targeting to 60 mile range tank-killer kamakaze.
Also, you keep returning to "certainty," when the real issue is probability, or as I said earlier in our discussion, "what is the most reasonable thing to believe?"
You not only knock science but condemn all of modernity for its "left brain dominance," but the only reason you are able to employ that terminology in the first place is the very science you denigrate - except in this case, it's a bit of scientific knowledge that you like, that is suited to your cause, so it's okay. But when other people base their worldviews on knowledge derived by science - on scientific knowledge that you don't like - you hiss and scratch and bite. Then it's all narrowminded and suffocating, denying the grandeur of nature, belittling the mystery of existence, and shunning the tricksy elves.Replies: @AaronB
But my point is that reliability shouldn’t be the only important thing.
Areas of life that aren’t “reliable” but are important – love, ethics, art, poetry, spirituality, religion, friendship, skill, craftsmanship, artisanship.
When it comes to control, forms of control that aren’t completely reliable are valuable too.
Finally, the quest for too much reliability ultimately makes even reliable knowledge harder to achieve – peer review is an institution meant to increase reliability, but it stifles genius in mediocrity.
Only experiments that guarantee “results” get funding – so the kind of serendipitous discoveries that come from exploring a line of inquiry without knowing where it will end up become impossible to justify to the committee – it won’t reliably produce results.
Reliability is like everything – take it too far it becomes self-defeating. Too much reliability kills reliability (the ability to produce reliable knowledge requires relaxing our desire for reliability).
Reality is circular. Take anything too far and you reach it’s opposite. Love someone too much and you will smother them.
Also, reliable = risk-free. Why not live with risk?
I would rather have more genius and less peer review.
Is it reasonable to believe that something can be a particle and a wave at the same time? Or a thing can be at two places at the same time?
It turns out that when it comes to “deep truths” – ultimate truths – reason isn’t the best guide, and if you limit yourself to it, you will miss out on a lot and not understand ultimate things.
If you use reason to critique reason, you discover the curious fact that reason itself can tell you that it isn’t reasonable to use it as a guide to ultimate reality and deep truths.
We are not truly willing to listen to reason about what the most reasonable thing to believe is..
Reason is good only for ordinary truths.
Same concepts have been expressed since ancient times using different concepts.
But like I said above about reason, the best and final contribution of reason is showing it’s own limitations, and likewise of science.
So, those who base their worldviews entirely on reason and science are failing to base their world views on reason and science 🙂
Because if reason and science themselves, if you follow them long enough, tell you themselves that they are limited, don’t apply to ultimate reality, and shouldn’t be taken too far.
I’m not saying reason and science have no place – but if only they have a place, not only are you narrow but you aren’t really listening to what reason and science have to say.
And that’s where our culture is – we lost our nerve at the last step of reason and science, and we failed to integrate it’s final lesson that we shouldn’t take them too seriously.
We know it, we just didn’t have the courage to integrate it. Our scientists and philosophers discovered that, but stepped back.
We preferred being safe and reliable. And the price for cowardice as always is a moral and spiritual price.
And we are paying that moral and spiritual price in every realm, from demotivation do scientific stagnation.
Some would, but for both HK & Taiwanese, the Anglo countries seem to be the biggest destinations, with HK heavily preferring the UK (BNOs) and Taiwan picking the US and Australia. Taiwanese would go to Japan too. Think about that with these destinations in mind.
Military “successes” of Russia in Ukraine might prompt China to enact the plan for military reunification this year or the next largely unprovoked (like the Russians and Donbas Republics), which will be far worse strategically than to economically and socially reabsorb Taiwan over the medium to long-term.
I probably shouldn’t be having such “logical” arguments lol, but using logic to examine logic itself – taking the final logical step – in order to transcend itself, is traditionally one path to “break through” to spirituality.
I wonder if this is the “yoga” (path) our logic obsessed culture will finally be able to utilize to transcend itself, by taking that final step we were poised to take in the early 20th but then lost our nerve.
Maybe we can redeem our cowardice and develop in the way our entire modern culture was tending to, towards reason being integrated into a higher synthesis, instead of having fallen into the stagnation and despair we are in now.
Every “thing” – as in partial point of view – needs to transcend itself and be integrated in a higher synthesis that includes it’s opposite.
As philosophy, science, and reason, mystics and poets, ultimately discover, the structure of reality is the coincidence of opposites.
Reason is excellent as part of a higher synthesis that includes it’s opposite – on it’s own, it’s sterile.
And one way to find this out is take any one-sided view and push it to it’s limit.
This isn't so.
So I want to stress this notion of the "higher synthesis" where opposites are integrated.
In a higher synthesis logic and reason and science will play a role alongside imagination and intuition and emotion, body and instinct.
In other words, instead of "eliminating" something I want to "add" something.
It is modern science that is reductionist - not me.
Logic and science necessarily have a "subordinate" role in any higher synthesis , because we see that when logic becomes dominant, it immediately becomes reductionist and destroys the higher synthesis.
The element that immediately tries to eliminate the higher synthesis, that cannot understand the other elements in the unity and tries to eliminate them, clearly does not have the breadth of vision to be the leader.
Imagination and intuition can make use of logic without wanting to eliminate it completely.
As a civilization, are we not ready yet to move out of the partial and into the higher synthesis?
Ron Unz also seems to have missed that point, in the next paragraph I was talking about muted dismay in the native Russian media landscape, amongst vatnik types (not bothering to mention anti-government popular commentators like Varlamov, Yuri Khovansky etc). I would actually say Russia entering uncharted territory here. I don't the USSR ever faced this level of international pressure, and I don't think any post-Stalin government ever became so centred around one man as Russia has become since 2010, and Putin is getting old. Anyway, the West was not magnanimous to the ex-USSR after it lost the Cold War, despite Gorbachev being perhaps the most self-abasing and foreign-approval-seeking leaders of any great power in all of history.Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
We are entering uncharted territory here with broad sanctioning of such a significant player in the globalist economy. Moralistic pressure on a state in the form of sanctions and boycotts isn’t this unprecedented tho.
The more things changes the more they stay the same – the West has the economic and moral argument in Cold War I, but now that the economic argument is denuded and the moral argument been twisted by wokeness, the forceful coercion that has always been how anyone enforces his ideology takes over and they’ve fallen from the moral high ground.
Yes, that blurry picture on twitter really convinced me, negative value added post.
Frankly Putin seems very healthy for someone his age. Presumably his obsession with appearances comes from memories of late Soviet gerontocracy, or how Primakov was attacked on the media for his knee-surgery.
Ron Unz also seems to have missed that point, in the next paragraph I was talking about muted dismay in the native Russian media landscape, amongst vatnik types (not bothering to mention anti-government popular commentators like Varlamov, Yuri Khovansky etc). I would actually say Russia entering uncharted territory here. I don't the USSR ever faced this level of international pressure, and I don't think any post-Stalin government ever became so centred around one man as Russia has become since 2010, and Putin is getting old. Anyway, the West was not magnanimous to the ex-USSR after it lost the Cold War, despite Gorbachev being perhaps the most self-abasing and foreign-approval-seeking leaders of any great power in all of history.Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry
Mostly only developed countries are installing sanctions against Russia. But with India and China, not, there isn’t something that will be fatal for Russia.
The last thirty years of negative trends (brain drain, deindustrialization, state capture, inequality) will be accelerated by these sanctions, but from the authorities they can be even not politically negative (Putin’s power increased from the 2014 sanctions, which allowed the stagnation in the economy to be presented as a result of external causes, rather than its real cause in local mismanagement; his friends also benefited from subsequent policies of “import substitution”, e.g. Timchenko’s apples replaced Polish apples).
More shock, is caused by internal changes than external decisions. This is from the government use of this war time for transitioning from fake “managed democracy” to more traditional authoritarian system. It is the internal change by the government, which is more serious, than the external actions of foreign governments.
This transition is something they have wanted for some years (Guriev was saying it was happening last year, for example https://imrussia.org/en/opinions/3321-sergei-guriev-%E2%80%9Cwe-may-already-be-seeing-russia%E2%80%99s-return-to-the-repressive-dictatorship-of-the-20th-century%E2%80%9D ).
Last year, there were experiments with increasing control. Face recognizing live systems were installed for all the public spaces of Moscow, for example.
But now they have a perfect opportunity to begin open transition, with the excuse of war.
It was very pre-planned. How the pseudo-opposition media like Echo of Moscow close so easily, as there is no need for government to run pseudo-opposition, except in the managed democracy model, which has abruptly been discarded.
Whether traditional authoritarian is preferable to “managed democracy”? Well, at least it might reduce the levels of falsity and fakeness in the society, which is one of the most negative side effects of “managed democracy”.
The writing in the media has become especially robotic and inhuman this year.
It is partly because even the journalists are not sure what the new rules are. They are not allowed to call the special operation “war”. There will be some kind of penalty if they use such a word.
This funny in context of reading the articles in the kremlinbot sites, about destroying “bandermobils” and “ukronazi tanks”, they cannot say it is war, even when they would like to. https://tsargrad.tv/materials/rubric/nashi-geroi
Perhaps I am creating the misleading impression that I am against logic and reason and science, and want to propose an alternative that excludes them.
This isn’t so.
So I want to stress this notion of the “higher synthesis” where opposites are integrated.
In a higher synthesis logic and reason and science will play a role alongside imagination and intuition and emotion, body and instinct.
In other words, instead of “eliminating” something I want to “add” something.
It is modern science that is reductionist – not me.
Logic and science necessarily have a “subordinate” role in any higher synthesis , because we see that when logic becomes dominant, it immediately becomes reductionist and destroys the higher synthesis.
The element that immediately tries to eliminate the higher synthesis, that cannot understand the other elements in the unity and tries to eliminate them, clearly does not have the breadth of vision to be the leader.
Imagination and intuition can make use of logic without wanting to eliminate it completely.
As a civilization, are we not ready yet to move out of the partial and into the higher synthesis?
Yes, this is common in EE. However, on average, Ukrainians seem a bit more religious than others.
Yes, it’s a risk because whoever wants to can take advantage of these unfortunate circumstances, however, it’s not your typical Ukrainian refugee (who are women and children, at least a third or more (!!!) of them are children, and it looks like a huge percentage of Ukrainian children are now abroad which is very sad). I saw a report about a group of particularly vulnerable refugees that had traveled if I’m not mistaken from Sumy to Latvia, they were a group of handicapped people who were received by the local Samaritans organization. There was one person who was so vulnerable that they couldn’t even sit up — I can’t even describe how I felt for those who have started this war when I saw that, imagining what this person had to go through being forced to take such a journey.
It might be that some will go back, as soon as they can, it must be difficult for them to stay away from their spouses, especially in these circumstances. So this is not a typical “open borders” situation where people travel to the West to take advantage.
Yes, thankfully (even though the airport was bombed). I’m hoping the Russians won’t be able to reach Dnipro, the distance from their troops in the north and the south is 700km, it wouldn’t be easy to close that distance and occupy all that area with the current concentration of the troops. I’m sure Dnipro is a fortress by now (Yarosh is there).
It’s like WW2.. but Kharkiv changed hands back then several times… unthinkable tragedy.
Mariupol is no more. Only an idea in our minds. It was a beautiful city, too. Beyond heartbreaking…
There could be an irrational element to this. There is a Russophone identity there that is different from the Moscovite one. Have you heard of the Belarusian band Brutto? They wrote a song called Воины света (Warriors of Light) that became the anthem for Maidan (and was also sung during the Belarusian protests). Became a very popular song for the Belarusian and Ukrainian youth. To me, this song encapsulates this new Ukrainian Russophone identity or maybe even a wider non Moscovite Russophone identity. It is triumphalist, masculine, a bit playful, very freedom-loving. But contrarian to Moscow. It seems that Moscow noticed this, after one of their plunder or killing episodes the Russian troops wrote mockingly Воины света on somebody’s wall before they left. So it’s clear they’re very resentful of that identity, and maybe hate it even more than the one in Lviv. The Lviv one is more distant, but this one is very close.
https://song-story.ru/voiny-sveta-lyapis/
That wouldn’t be a big issue (although I hope they do not get displaced or forced to commit to anything against their will). I’ve seen you mention that they are quite woke, so they fit in well in Anglo countries. If anything, the only issue might be that they could create competition for Anglo professionals (but there is a shortage of those now anyway). They are educated people with a good temperament.
Afaik, there are differing opinions about this. Some believe that this would prompt China to act more aggressively, while others believe that, on the contrary, seeing the consolidation of the West and the rallying of the West around Ukraine, that maybe it’s not a good idea at this point.
It is partly because even the journalists are not sure what the new rules are. They are not allowed to call the special operation "war". There will be some kind of penalty if they use such a word. This funny in context of reading the articles in the kremlinbot sites, about destroying "bandermobils" and "ukronazi tanks", they cannot say it is war, even when they would like to. https://tsargrad.tv/materials/rubric/nashi-geroiReplies: @LatW
Isn’t this worse than even in the Soviet times? Back then at least one could retain some privacy if one went with the program.
And will the Kremlin take care of the people in a way that, let’s say, the 1930s authoritarian powers did? Doubtful, tbh.
It might also be that going forward it won’t be enough to just be quiet, one will have to openly signal loyalty to the Kremlin’s politics.
And they will run into a problem if they have to do an open mobilization, if they can only call this a “special operation” and not war, then why is there a need for mobilization?
But apart from their opinions, they are definitely pedantic people who want to count everything obsessively. Sure, it is possible. I trust Oryx as having honest intention, because they post usually multiple photos for each equipment they count, so there is indication they are trying to avoid double counts. In this war, I'm seeing video and photo evidence everyday of loss of the most advanced equipment, so whether we believe Oryx or not as a bible, there is significant loss of the advanced models. - In terms of the most advanced equipment of the Russian army.
In 2021, There are there are active supposedly 530 T-72B3M. 850 T-72B3. 310 active T-80BV. 140 T-80BVM. 350 active T-90 of all types. Somewhere around 2000 active relatively modernized tanks (1990s and later models), if you believe such numbers. When people talk about many thousands of tanks, they are meaning older equipment in reserve. This doesn't have modern electronics and modern optics (from Thales). If reserves and conscripts are mobilized, there could be a much larger army. But the quality of equipment will be lower than used by active professional army. How many of reserve tanks (stored outside) will be operational is probably another question. After this war ends, the land army will have significantly less advanced equipment than before. For re-armament, in theory China can surely rapidly supply Type 99A tanks (which are believed to be better anyway), but knowing local politics, it's probably unlikely they would buy Chinese tanks. Instead, there will be more modernization again from the stock of T-72. If there were 530 T-72B3M 2016 edition in 2021, it seems like they were modernizing maybe over a hundred per year before the war. China could likely supply electronics and optics for this modernization. Although China itself has advanced tanks now according to the defense journalists that could have just been imported.Replies: @utu, @Ron Unz
Equity in Russian and Ukrainian claims about their accomplishments:
Russia claims to have destroyed “140 [Ukrainian] aircraft, 490 unmanned aerial vehicles, 253 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,367 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 256 multiple launch rocket systems and 1,021 field artillery and mortars,”
The post came a day after the ministry on the same platform said Ukraine had suffered “irretrievable losses” of 23,367 troops and other fighters in the conflict.
Ukraine Defense Ministry on Tuesday said its forces have killed roughly 20,800 Russian troops and destroyed 169 fighter jets, 802 tanks, 2,063 armored personnel vehicles and 132 multiple launch rocket systems.
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-19/ukraine-russia-war-losses-pentagon-military-aid-donbas-5737097.html
Russian claims are more recent while Ukraine claims are consistent (continuously growing) from the very beginning. Both could be propaganda but then it would mean that Russia is trying to match Ukrainian propaganda. Why? Unless Ukrainian claims are true?
Strelkov and even Solovyev have been complaining about this for weeks. I frankly don’t understand why war isn’t declared either, it’s not as if Russia has to be leery of upsetting anyone the ‘International Community’ (i.e. Anglosphere, NATO and Japan/S.Korea) at this point.
I don’t know if I mentioned this when it happened, but Armenia and Azerbaijan both went to Brussels instead of Moscow a while ago, I don’t serious ‘negotiations’ (read: mutual blackmail and incriminations) have ever been held there between the two before.
Just a question of efficiency, not humane concerns. I don’t think any country outside of Africa or the Mid-East can afford to do that, considering global aging.
Russia is more homophobic than the west (though not quite as much as subsaharan Africa) and certainly doesn’t fetishize trans issues as the West does, but on all other measures it is as decadent or more decadent than the West.
Russian claims are more recent while Ukraine claims are consistent (continuously growing) from the very beginning. Both could be propaganda but then it would mean that Russia is trying to match Ukrainian propaganda. Why? Unless Ukrainian claims are true?Replies: @sudden death
Recently there was a message posted in pro-RF Telegram channel about closed briefing in RF Ministry of defense regarding their own losses – 13414 KIA, 7000 MIA, data about Maskva ship – 116 KIA, around 100 MIA. Later it was deleted and explained as a “hacking”:
A lot of those trained as professionals are taking up menial jobs not unlike V4 labor in the past, I heard.
I’m in central Poland (not Warsaw) now. Have not seen any non-Europeans other than an Asian-American tourist. Have had two Uber drivers from Ukraine, each one from the southeast (near Donbas) but living in Poland for a few years now. They have not gone back to fight for Ukraine but one of them mentioned that a lot of guys from Kiev and even some from Kharkiv have left Poland for Ukraine. They work construction during the day and drive Uber at night.
Visited the highlands and went to a kitschy Highlander restaurant with live folk music. 95% the same as Ukrainian Carpathian culture (similar fiddle and accordion music, comparable melodies), only the language is different. Urban people from Kharkiv are more like Russians than like Poles but western Ukrainian villagers and Polish ones are about as he same, the Ukrainians are just a lot poorer and their wooden churches look different from Polish wooden churches.
IslamoPutin (PR)aetorian guards kadyrovites akhbaring chorus in burning Mariupol:
I honestly cannot believe that pro-Russia partisans are still trying to spin this as going as “all as planned.”
And please all understand that if Russia wants Ukraine to not join NATO, or to recognise any Russian gains, including Crimea, then Russia needs to either conduct a regime change and occupation of all of Ukraine, or make a peace agreement with the current Ukrainian government.
This is why this map always mattered.
We can also now see that Russia is simply not competent to achieve the first, nevermind run a successful multi-decade occupation. And we can see that Russia actually has nothing to offer Ukraine in talks.
The desperation that commenters show when they try to argue that the Ukrainian military will be defeated real soon is cringe and pathetic. The Ukrainian military is probably about 230,000 troops, which is more than at the start of the war, has more and better equipment and has constant supply. Pretending that Russia can interdict the supply, when governments can’t even do that on territory they actually control against drug gangs, is stupid.
Russia still hasn’t secured Mariupol and has in fact given up. Russia has taken no city opposed and has made no appreciable gains in the 2 months of war. The Ukrainian figures on Russian losses are correct. Yes, the numbers are extraordinary, but look at the maps above! Those are the casualties one would expect from such failed and defeated operations.
The only reason Russia has not withdrawn is because no one wants to own the loss. Russia can grind out a defeat over many months, while their propagandists continue to lie and pretend otherwise. Those in charge come from a necrotic system and merely hope for something big to change, but it won’t. All trends are against Russia and, because of the Russian necrosis, there’s no one competent on the Russian side to take the big decisions that might actually, or at least actually would have, helped.
You pro-Russian robots have been relentlessly mocked by reality and, as I said at the very beginning of the war, every single day will see this only get worse for you. And it has only gotten worse for you. This is the first time in your political lives, since you started to sucking on Russian propaganda, that actual truth can break through it. All of the previous times you’ve been able to lie and obfuscate. Pretending that the Russian economy is amazing because it is based on “real” things. Or LARPing like the US is about to collapse.
But with this war, reality must eventually break through.
Having said that, I wouldn’t have thought you’d all be able to delude yourself once the maps that I have shown above were clear. I mean, really, how?
But then there’s always some deranged shill like Ron Unz who can pop up to keep you mindf*cked slaves of Russian propaganda.
They have identified your personal grievances, like a messy divorce, NEETdom, confused sexuality, overbearing mother, undiagnosed borderline personality disorder, and then they play you narratives that fit your inner struggle.
This is why you can look at the map above and go “wow, Russia are so real, they have done so amazingly in the last month, they get reality, they are winning so easily, everyone else is hysterical and on lies, look at the amazing Russian plan and gains!”
At least both (rump) Ukraine and Russia are gaining asabiyah from the struggle against each other.
Frankly Putin seems very healthy for someone his age. Presumably his obsession with appearances comes from memories of late Soviet gerontocracy, or how Primakov was attacked on the media for his knee-surgery.Replies: @Thrax
He held the same bizarre, constipated-looking pose for 15 minutes. He’s probably clutching the table with his right hand to conceal tremors
Yes, Israelis, Lebanese Christians, Greeks and Armenians are all much like you describe. Also, the men often kind of look like chimpanzees.
But at least they are not like many North African and Middle Eastern Muslims, or South Asians, who are extreme sexual harassers of women and actually very often obscene in their conduct.
There’s really no comparison. The word “misogyny” is misused in the West, but it is obvious that this latter group really do loathe and fear women. You just have to visit those countries as a woman to see. Please also note that male loathing and fearing of women most often comes out as a sort of highly-aggressive desperation combined with a general aura of sexual impotence, covered up by a ridiculous false machismo. And that many of these countries are riddled with it. God knows what happens behind closed doors.
Germany got demolished in WW2, so Germans launched an economic miracle. As did Japan. Ukraine got invaded by Russia, and Ukrainians are fighting hard and inter-Ukrainian deaths are perhaps a few hundred. Iraq got invaded and Iraqis murdered a million Iraqis.
Those are the facts. For all of Israel’s faults, at least they don’t see any foreign attempt at intervention as an excuse to pursue ancient feuds against their cousin or the village next door. It is a shabby state that spends more time trying to play the angles than make the straightforward, if painful, decisions required to completely end their conflict. But that only makes it mediocre, not awful, in my mind.
It seems that the whole world has adopted a way of thinking about geopolitics that involves such implicitly low expectations for blacks, Arabs and other “exotics” that we can’t even see what pitifully low barriers they fail to jump. This is the real racism. The racism of implicitly treating people as not even having basic human agency. Iraqis did not need to murder a million Iraqis simply because the US got rid of their previous equally murderous regime. They could have done like the Germans and profited.
The first step to doing better is recognising how badly you’re doing, and not pretending that you’re amazing and blaming everything on the West/gays/Jews/NWO whatever.
Are you really going to continue to argue that I am being unfair by pointing out that Iraqis didn’t need to murder 1 million Iraqis? Or that anyone not insane might have taken better advantage of the infinite money and development resources that the West poured into Iraq, rather than just being backwards, tribal hotheads, whose culture seems to depend on pederasty, the oppression of women, corruption and constant tribal or sectarian warfare. Can we not expect better from all human groups? Or at least hold them to a better standard?
Can we all just drop the arguments that look like Jussie Smollett’s. “I didn’t do it, but you deserved it, and it was your fault and you made me do it, and I’d do it again.” It is pathetic.
But apart from their opinions, they are definitely pedantic people who want to count everything obsessively. Sure, it is possible. I trust Oryx as having honest intention, because they post usually multiple photos for each equipment they count, so there is indication they are trying to avoid double counts. In this war, I'm seeing video and photo evidence everyday of loss of the most advanced equipment, so whether we believe Oryx or not as a bible, there is significant loss of the advanced models. - In terms of the most advanced equipment of the Russian army.
In 2021, There are there are active supposedly 530 T-72B3M. 850 T-72B3. 310 active T-80BV. 140 T-80BVM. 350 active T-90 of all types. Somewhere around 2000 active relatively modernized tanks (1990s and later models), if you believe such numbers. When people talk about many thousands of tanks, they are meaning older equipment in reserve. This doesn't have modern electronics and modern optics (from Thales). If reserves and conscripts are mobilized, there could be a much larger army. But the quality of equipment will be lower than used by active professional army. How many of reserve tanks (stored outside) will be operational is probably another question. After this war ends, the land army will have significantly less advanced equipment than before. For re-armament, in theory China can surely rapidly supply Type 99A tanks (which are believed to be better anyway), but knowing local politics, it's probably unlikely they would buy Chinese tanks. Instead, there will be more modernization again from the stock of T-72. If there were 530 T-72B3M 2016 edition in 2021, it seems like they were modernizing maybe over a hundred per year before the war. China could likely supply electronics and optics for this modernization. Although China itself has advanced tanks now according to the defense journalists that could have just been imported.Replies: @utu, @Ron Unz
Okay, so you’re saying that the Ukrainians have already destroyed 500-700 of those more advanced Russian tanks. Frankly, I find that pretty doubtful.
The anti-Russian side totally dominates media/propaganda, and from the very beginning they’ve been producing the most utterly ridiculous and dishonest propaganda that was widely reported and believed by people on social media in the West.
It’s also pretty clear that the Ukrainians have committed the most totally horrific war-crimes but then managed to get the media to pretend it was the Russians, such as the Bucha massacre and the missile hitting the railway station. Compared to that, faking a few photos or Tweets of destroyed Russian tanks is utterly trivial.
You seem like a young, extremely gullible person who spends all his time on social media and tends to believe whatever he sees. If you were living in America, you’d probably believe that blacks like George Floyd were saintly victims of white police-killers and that people had 17 different genders.
Since I don’t have great military expertise and I don’t waste my time watching war-porn on social media, my interpretation of the state of the conflict is primarily derived from the extensive public presentations of people like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, who do have that expertise and don’t seem like they would have any particular reason to lie or distort. Maybe they’re all totally wrong, but I’d trust them over random Tweets showing destroyed Russian vehicles.
For the UA side -- Someone needs to explain how they will go on offense, retaking lost land. NLAW may be outstanding defense, but it does not help troops cross open territory. How is UA going to win?
For the RF side -- The pull back from Kiev is a failure. There is no way to sell it as a feint. Losing the Moskva, even if it due to operator error rather than Neptune strikes, is a high order fiasco. The RF can still "grind out" military victories in Mariopul and Kharkiv. However, without an armistice, resistance fighting will continue. How can RF "Win the Peace" in the East?
With no path for either side to win, that leads to a prediction of LOSE-LOSE where the dying continues to little purpose. There needs to be an armistice that leaves both sides unhappy, separates the forces, and stops the fighting including resistance insurgencies. Sadly, I do not see that happening soon.
PEACE 😇
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1517154281497194496?t=x0-xtISkyZAuGbnloXRw8A&s=19
And please all understand that if Russia wants Ukraine to not join NATO, or to recognise any Russian gains, including Crimea, then Russia needs to either conduct a regime change and occupation of all of Ukraine, or make a peace agreement with the current Ukrainian government.
This is why this map always mattered.
We can also now see that Russia is simply not competent to achieve the first, nevermind run a successful multi-decade occupation. And we can see that Russia actually has nothing to offer Ukraine in talks.
The desperation that commenters show when they try to argue that the Ukrainian military will be defeated real soon is cringe and pathetic. The Ukrainian military is probably about 230,000 troops, which is more than at the start of the war, has more and better equipment and has constant supply. Pretending that Russia can interdict the supply, when governments can't even do that on territory they actually control against drug gangs, is stupid.
Russia still hasn't secured Mariupol and has in fact given up. Russia has taken no city opposed and has made no appreciable gains in the 2 months of war. The Ukrainian figures on Russian losses are correct. Yes, the numbers are extraordinary, but look at the maps above! Those are the casualties one would expect from such failed and defeated operations.
The only reason Russia has not withdrawn is because no one wants to own the loss. Russia can grind out a defeat over many months, while their propagandists continue to lie and pretend otherwise. Those in charge come from a necrotic system and merely hope for something big to change, but it won't. All trends are against Russia and, because of the Russian necrosis, there's no one competent on the Russian side to take the big decisions that might actually, or at least actually would have, helped.
You pro-Russian robots have been relentlessly mocked by reality and, as I said at the very beginning of the war, every single day will see this only get worse for you. And it has only gotten worse for you. This is the first time in your political lives, since you started to sucking on Russian propaganda, that actual truth can break through it. All of the previous times you've been able to lie and obfuscate. Pretending that the Russian economy is amazing because it is based on "real" things. Or LARPing like the US is about to collapse.
But with this war, reality must eventually break through.
Having said that, I wouldn't have thought you'd all be able to delude yourself once the maps that I have shown above were clear. I mean, really, how?
But then there's always some deranged shill like Ron Unz who can pop up to keep you mindf*cked slaves of Russian propaganda.
They have identified your personal grievances, like a messy divorce, NEETdom, confused sexuality, overbearing mother, undiagnosed borderline personality disorder, and then they play you narratives that fit your inner struggle.
This is why you can look at the map above and go "wow, Russia are so real, they have done so amazingly in the last month, they get reality, they are winning so easily, everyone else is hysterical and on lies, look at the amazing Russian plan and gains!"Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon
The only thing Russia is good at is suppressing internal dissent, increased emigration of the educated and upwardly mobile will only increase the regime’s grip on power due to negative selection but even the most powerful cronies must be pissed about having their yachts and villas abroad confiscated. Basically, Russia has no chance to become a great power again; they will just be a resource extraction site for China.
Funny you just created an ‘account’ here. Trolls like you and Laxa remind me why other trolls like Karlin and Aedlibn need to exist for balance.
How many months out of the year can you cycle regular at 8 in the morning?
Also: what brand of gloves do you use? : )
If you stay on the main paths, things can be okay but I typically prefer to take all kinds of shortcuts though narrow alleys and snaking paths through parks. Once the ice really gets going it can be outright dangerous, even for walking. I change my tyres and stick to the main paths, but sometimes I just trade in the bike and use public transportation and/or walking instead. So I'd say, for good conditions we're looking at 10 months per year.Malmbergs. I've tried all kinds of specialised gear from fancier firms but I keep coming back to Malmbergs. They are mostly selling gloves to electricians, but I have found a particular model which both gives me good grip and simultaneously allows me to use my phone if I need to check something without taking them off.Replies: @songbird
What exactly am I trolling about? Russia’s future is incredibly dystopian, the best they can hope for is a revolution that will fumigate the entire ruling class, but anyone who might participate in this has been exiled or murdered. If any of Putin’s cronies overthrow him, they are just as incompetent and will not be willing to make enough concessions in exchange for ending economic isolation.
The anti-Russian side totally dominates media/propaganda, and from the very beginning they've been producing the most utterly ridiculous and dishonest propaganda that was widely reported and believed by people on social media in the West.
It's also pretty clear that the Ukrainians have committed the most totally horrific war-crimes but then managed to get the media to pretend it was the Russians, such as the Bucha massacre and the missile hitting the railway station. Compared to that, faking a few photos or Tweets of destroyed Russian tanks is utterly trivial.
You seem like a young, extremely gullible person who spends all his time on social media and tends to believe whatever he sees. If you were living in America, you'd probably believe that blacks like George Floyd were saintly victims of white police-killers and that people had 17 different genders.
Since I don't have great military expertise and I don't waste my time watching war-porn on social media, my interpretation of the state of the conflict is primarily derived from the extensive public presentations of people like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, who do have that expertise and don't seem like they would have any particular reason to lie or distort. Maybe they're all totally wrong, but I'd trust them over random Tweets showing destroyed Russian vehicles.Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
There is a problem with extremists on both sides over playing their hand.
For the UA side — Someone needs to explain how they will go on offense, retaking lost land. NLAW may be outstanding defense, but it does not help troops cross open territory. How is UA going to win?
For the RF side — The pull back from Kiev is a failure. There is no way to sell it as a feint. Losing the Moskva, even if it due to operator error rather than Neptune strikes, is a high order fiasco. The RF can still “grind out” military victories in Mariopul and Kharkiv. However, without an armistice, resistance fighting will continue. How can RF “Win the Peace” in the East?
With no path for either side to win, that leads to a prediction of LOSE-LOSE where the dying continues to little purpose. There needs to be an armistice that leaves both sides unhappy, separates the forces, and stops the fighting including resistance insurgencies. Sadly, I do not see that happening soon.
PEACE 😇
I suppose it is only a small place, but one thing that I would like to see is Great Blasket Island resettled by Irish-speaking nationalists:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasket_Islands
Probably a political impossibility, and maybe, no one would want to do it. But, in some ways, in principal, it seems easier than it was in the past. Very easy to store large amounts of food. Easier communication, with the internet. Easier to predict the condition of the passage to the mainland. Maybe, they would all need to be computer programmers or something.Replies: @sudden death, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
Great Blasket Island
Very cool, I like this demographics table, pop. 13 in 1881
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tearaght_Island#Demographics
The husband died in bed. By herself, the wife was too weak to move him. She was also too weak to close the door of the cottage against the prevailing wind, and the fire went out. But there was no other shelter on the island, so she had to live like that for some weeks, some say cannibalizing her husband raw, while sleeping in the same bed, until she was rescued by some men from Great Blasket.
The anti-Russian side totally dominates media/propaganda, and from the very beginning they've been producing the most utterly ridiculous and dishonest propaganda that was widely reported and believed by people on social media in the West.
It's also pretty clear that the Ukrainians have committed the most totally horrific war-crimes but then managed to get the media to pretend it was the Russians, such as the Bucha massacre and the missile hitting the railway station. Compared to that, faking a few photos or Tweets of destroyed Russian tanks is utterly trivial.
You seem like a young, extremely gullible person who spends all his time on social media and tends to believe whatever he sees. If you were living in America, you'd probably believe that blacks like George Floyd were saintly victims of white police-killers and that people had 17 different genders.
Since I don't have great military expertise and I don't waste my time watching war-porn on social media, my interpretation of the state of the conflict is primarily derived from the extensive public presentations of people like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, who do have that expertise and don't seem like they would have any particular reason to lie or distort. Maybe they're all totally wrong, but I'd trust them over random Tweets showing destroyed Russian vehicles.Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
You seem to find a lot of things doubtful that don’t fit into your anti-US bias. Dmitry has tried to explain why he thinks that the information provided by Oryx is as accurate as you can get, biases and all. Do you also find it hard to believe the shrunken territory that the Russian forces have had to abandon too (see above the map in comment #529 directed at least in part to you)? I’m sure that Putler finds it hard to believe too, as well as his sunken flagship the “Moskva” that sunk to the bottom of the Black Sea due to “operator error”. 🙂
How will Ukraine mount an offensive to retake lost ground?
The map changed because the Russian Military withdrew from the area around Kiev.
-- Is that a loss for Russia? Yes.
-- Were those troops destroyed? No.
-- Will they turn up in the Ukrainian East? Yes.
So "net net". Russian armor left an area where they were vulnerable to NLAW. They are repositioning to a joint services front where they will have flank infantry support against NLAW units. That is a less than promising development for the Ukraine side that depended on small unit victories for most of their wins.
It genuinely looks bad for both sides, and Russia has nothing to offer Zelensky to achieve an armistice. It is possible to wind up where Both Sides Lose!
PEACE 😇Replies: @Beckow
Ritter is a little over the top in some statements though. Dies seem to be currying favor for future gigs with Moscow. Not saying he’s a spy btw but he knows he’s on the outs with US sponsorship.Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Dmitry
Since faking Tweets is so easy and obvious, I think we should assume that it's being done unless there's strong evidence to the contrary. We already know that some of the utterly ridiculous fake-Tweets about that super-pilot and the martyred island garrison went viral. The problem with social media-oriented people is that they tend to believe anything they see in such Tweet.
Meanwhile, I just can't see any obvious reason why American military experts like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Larry Johnson would be lying. Suppose you're correct and within a few weeks it's clear that the Russian army has been defeated, with the loss of 20,000 casualties and half their modern vehicles. Then they'll all look totally ridiculous and no one will ever trust their opinions on military matters again. So maybe they're mistaken, but I think they're being honest.
During the Iraq War, all the media people who were correct were purged and stayed purged even after they were proven correct. Meanwhile, virtually none of the MSM people who were wrong had their careers negatively impacted. I think that historical tilt explains a lot of the current MSM tilt.Replies: @Thrax, @Mr. Hack, @Mikel
Very cool, I like this demographics table, pop. 13 in 1881
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tearaght_Island#DemographicsReplies: @songbird
Not 100% sure, but I think that was the one, where, at one time, there was a single couple living there.
The husband died in bed. By herself, the wife was too weak to move him. She was also too weak to close the door of the cottage against the prevailing wind, and the fire went out. But there was no other shelter on the island, so she had to live like that for some weeks, some say cannibalizing her husband raw, while sleeping in the same bed, until she was rescued by some men from Great Blasket.
Only a true blue Russian shill could try and twist Russia’s pitiable situation into a big plus. All that Russia needs in order to “benefit” its great stature in the world today is to continue grinding down Ukies” and it will certainly continue to “shock” its economy right into the ground. You Russian stooges have a way at looking at things that is just a little bit too positive. You’re all candidates for the funny farm as far as I’m concerned. 🙂
Ukrainian morale is high and won't subside anytime soon as they all want to avenge the thousands raped and murdered and cities leveled by Putin's hordes whereas Russia has been reduced to importing mercenaries from Africa and conscripting all able-bodied (looks debatable in some cases) men in occupied territory.
I think Ukraine will win in three-four months unless Poutine resorts to using WMDs. They may win sooner if Russia's schemes can't keep inflation from spiraling out of control.Replies: @Lurker
In a way, I think part of the problem is that we've been brought up by our culture to say things like well, there's lots of fraud and deception in an area, so we should totally dismiss it - only the totally certain and "unmessy" has value.
It's like morality and ethics - lots of frauds out there who will use the language of morality to lie and cheat their way through life. That area of life simply isn't susceptible to certainty.
And in fact, because ethical certainty and consistent behavior isn't obtainable, because fraud and deceit are prevalent, the dominant strand in modern society - which only values the certain - says morality is bullshit and we are utterly selfish beings anyways who just pursue survival.
And yet this isn't true :)
And thinking it is means the loss of a hugely important dimension in life.
Or consider this -
If paranormal powers come as the result of relinquishing the desire to dominate and control - as the spiritual literature suggests - then a genuine spiritual practitioner who agreed to participate in a scientific study to verify his powers would lose his his ability to do so - precisely because science is the effort to dominate and control.
Powers that might come as a result of relinquishing"ego" and the desire to extend human dominance may be inherently undetectable by a method that is about establishing dominance and control and furthering ego.
Most spiritual traditions say outright that powers are incidental and should not be sought.
Or consider supernatural entities -
They may have a role in choosing whether they wish to manifest, and they may represent a side of reality that is positively offended at attempts to make them reproducible and controllable :)
There is much more than can be said in this vein.
But the point is, the desire for "certainty" may not be the only interesting or profitable lens from which to view reality.
It may most of the most interesting sides of life aren't susceptible to scientific certainty.
And since science itself isn't certain, why make a fetish of it? .
Absolutely, and this is the best approach you can possibly take in my humble opinion.
Paul Kingsnorth who used to be a secular liberal environmental activist says that when young his father would take him on long walks in the English hills and he would constantly feel a sense of numinous presence, a sense of forces and powers and presences that made him feel nature was far from senseless matter.sevukar society insisted it was. That's why he went into environmental activism.
Only much later did he understand he was encountering the sacred and the numinous in those walks in the hills.
I feel it too!
The wilderness played an indispensable role in making me aware of the numinous recently.
A big problem with Western religion is that God is too much conceived of as "out there" and utterly beyond, and not enough as "in" everything in the world, as in other traditions.
Anyways, I believe a sense of the numinous that comes from nature - even if wordless - is one of the most authentic and pure approaches to religion there is, even without any "superstructure" of beliefs.
After all, the mystics specifically downgraded the role of beliefs and concepts.
So wherever you end up, you're surely on one of the best paths in my opinion..Replies: @silviosilver, @Mikel
That is too convenient and convoluted, which adds to your already convoluted excuse that paranormal beings, as opposed to humans with paranormal powers, also have their intricate reasons to be unable to manifest themselves under conditions that we humble people consider reasonable to acknowledge their existence.
If you want to be credible and, more importantly, have yourself an understanding of reality, you need to allow yourself the possibility of nobody having ever shown evidence of paranormal powers under controlled conditions because perhaps nobody (or exceedingly few people) really has such powers, which also happens to be the most logical explanation.
If I claim to be able to lift a 1,000 lb rock, it is very reasonable for people who doubt my claim to ask me to show them my capabilities under conditions where they can verify my feat: weigh the rock, lift it in front of them with no artificial help, etc. If I then claim that I am only able to do it when people aren’t watching me with such left-brained ideas in their minds, I must be prepared to not be believed.
Likewise, I think that if Barbarossa is able to detect objects underground with his dowsing rods with an accuracy higher than pure chance, he is missing the opportunity to pocket \$250,000. That’s what the Center for Inquiry Investigations Group in the US has been offering anyone with that kind of powers since the year 2000 and nobody has been able to get the prize yet. I don’t know why he shouldn’t give it a try. He could maybe pay his mortgage off or do something useful for him or his loved ones with that money. He could even give all the money to a charity if he feels that showing his skills for selfish reasons would somehow spoil the experiment.
But note that I am not saying that we shouldn’t have an open mind. There are certainly many things that we don’t know and some of them are quite mysterious, like the UFO stuff that I didn’t believe in until recently but after the latest revelations by the US military appear to be real phenomena.
Totally respect that.
That being said, I do not like the violence and coercion implied in the word "prove", as in I have to compel you to assent against your will.
I think the far better approach is through experience.
And if someone can connect to nature, there is hope for him :)Replies: @Mikel
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1517154281497194496?t=x0-xtISkyZAuGbnloXRw8A&s=19
And please all understand that if Russia wants Ukraine to not join NATO, or to recognise any Russian gains, including Crimea, then Russia needs to either conduct a regime change and occupation of all of Ukraine, or make a peace agreement with the current Ukrainian government.
This is why this map always mattered.
We can also now see that Russia is simply not competent to achieve the first, nevermind run a successful multi-decade occupation. And we can see that Russia actually has nothing to offer Ukraine in talks.
The desperation that commenters show when they try to argue that the Ukrainian military will be defeated real soon is cringe and pathetic. The Ukrainian military is probably about 230,000 troops, which is more than at the start of the war, has more and better equipment and has constant supply. Pretending that Russia can interdict the supply, when governments can't even do that on territory they actually control against drug gangs, is stupid.
Russia still hasn't secured Mariupol and has in fact given up. Russia has taken no city opposed and has made no appreciable gains in the 2 months of war. The Ukrainian figures on Russian losses are correct. Yes, the numbers are extraordinary, but look at the maps above! Those are the casualties one would expect from such failed and defeated operations.
The only reason Russia has not withdrawn is because no one wants to own the loss. Russia can grind out a defeat over many months, while their propagandists continue to lie and pretend otherwise. Those in charge come from a necrotic system and merely hope for something big to change, but it won't. All trends are against Russia and, because of the Russian necrosis, there's no one competent on the Russian side to take the big decisions that might actually, or at least actually would have, helped.
You pro-Russian robots have been relentlessly mocked by reality and, as I said at the very beginning of the war, every single day will see this only get worse for you. And it has only gotten worse for you. This is the first time in your political lives, since you started to sucking on Russian propaganda, that actual truth can break through it. All of the previous times you've been able to lie and obfuscate. Pretending that the Russian economy is amazing because it is based on "real" things. Or LARPing like the US is about to collapse.
But with this war, reality must eventually break through.
Having said that, I wouldn't have thought you'd all be able to delude yourself once the maps that I have shown above were clear. I mean, really, how?
But then there's always some deranged shill like Ron Unz who can pop up to keep you mindf*cked slaves of Russian propaganda.
They have identified your personal grievances, like a messy divorce, NEETdom, confused sexuality, overbearing mother, undiagnosed borderline personality disorder, and then they play you narratives that fit your inner struggle.
This is why you can look at the map above and go "wow, Russia are so real, they have done so amazingly in the last month, they get reality, they are winning so easily, everyone else is hysterical and on lies, look at the amazing Russian plan and gains!"Replies: @Thrax, @Yellowface Anon
The map is basically consolidation in the Donbass, which is the 2014 war aim that can be spun as a “victory”, as strategically unenviable as Russia is at the moment.
At least both (rump) Ukraine and Russia are gaining asabiyah from the struggle against each other.
There is a huge gap between “Russia Under Performing” and “Ukraine Winning”. Russia already does (or is going to) own Mariopul, Kherson, and Kharkiv.
How will Ukraine mount an offensive to retake lost ground?
The map changed because the Russian Military withdrew from the area around Kiev.
— Is that a loss for Russia? Yes.
— Were those troops destroyed? No.
— Will they turn up in the Ukrainian East? Yes.
So “net net”. Russian armor left an area where they were vulnerable to NLAW. They are repositioning to a joint services front where they will have flank infantry support against NLAW units. That is a less than promising development for the Ukraine side that depended on small unit victories for most of their wins.
It genuinely looks bad for both sides, and Russia has nothing to offer Zelensky to achieve an armistice. It is possible to wind up where Both Sides Lose!
PEACE 😇
ISLAM -- Muslims are engaged in Jihad Invasion of Europe. WEF Elites are key to this, especially the despicable George IslamoSoros. SJW Islam organized the fight in Ukraine to maxize the quantity of invaders entering the EU.
Their strategy is prolonging this fight as long as possible. Ukraine will be given enough arms to keep fighting. However, these contributions will be carefully limited to ensure that they never have enough to win.
It also throws off side benefits. Former Rothschild banker and SJW Islamic advocate Macron was able to act as a statesman between Ukraine and Russia. As an armistice would not serve the Muslim invasion, the staged events produced no results. However, Macron gained prestige for the "attempt".
CHRISTIANITY -- Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians have no good reason to fight. They have been manipulated into this war by Woke-slam.
If things could be undone, the optimal choice would be avoiding this fight entirely. The best option now is for Christians to stop killing Christians as soon as possible. That would allow Christian Europe to refocus on the horror of the Great Replacement.
_____
I originally thought that Zelensky was a willing accomplice to George IslamoSoros. So, you can find some posting history where I blamed Ukraine. As I obtained more information, I now realize that Zelensky was duped by Taqiyya deception from The IslamoSoros.
Alas, I cannot unpost those earlier, errant charges. I do retract them.
_____
I find your black-white take on the situation problematic. Trying to portray everything Ukraine does as "Good" and everything Russia does as "Evil", unnecessarily hardens your position.
It took days to get a grudging admission that Ukraine deliberately targeted civilians in Crimea by by building a dam. And, even now I believe that you see targeting civilians in Crimea as "Good". The civilians are "Evil" for daring to break away from Kiev rule, and thus deserve to be targeted and punished. Is kicking the weak "Good", when the weak being kicked are "Evil"?
I recommend stepping back and taking a look at the larger picture. The SJW Islamic WEF will never allow Ukraine to win. That does not serve their anti-Western assault, and Woke-slam has sufficient influence to prevent such a victory. Ukrainians as a whole, yourself included, need to focus on obtaining an armistice, so that Christians stop dying. That is an achievable goal that would confound those who created this war.
PEACE 😇Replies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
I didn’t have time to get back to you about this one, but you didn’t really think that I’d let it slide did you? sudden death was on the right track with his reply, but nobody else felt the need to respond? Either they buy your world view here, or they think that its just a bunch of claptrap not worthy of any response?
I’m not able to completely respond to you, because I don’t know what the “Taquiya deception” is all about? On the face of it, I have to admit, that I was taken in by the common misconception that it was a totally deranged Putler that started this war, only to find out that according to your good sources, it was actually George Soros that was actually responsible for pulling all of the strings that resulted in the Russian/Ukrainian war?…Surely Ilhan Omar deserves some of the credit too? As far as I know, she’s the only American politician that is working on behalf of Soros to spread his vision of an Islamic Europe within the walls of the Minnesota senate? There must be others too that I’m not aware of? At his age, he should be congratulated in having the moxy and brains to pull off a war that will ultimately result in the complete ruination of Russia. That is he and Ilhan Omar:
92 year old George Soros, who in between being force fed ensure and having his pampers swapped out, still has the energy and intelligence to conduct foreign policy in Russia at a very high level and in a real and meaningful way! Allahu Akbar!
You a correct that there are other leaders in Taqiyya deception. The entire WEF Muslim SJW Davos enterprise is designed to push Open [Muslim] Borders. It will continue to do so after The IslamoSoros loses mortal form and descends to the nether realms.
I think you just affirmed my underlying point about the perfidy of SJW Islamic Globalism. Both Ukraine and Russia were tricked into this conflict.
________
Ilhan Omar's motives are difficult to follow. She actually appears to be bucking her paymaster George IslamoSoros: (1) Most likely, she is being prepped as "controlled opposition" that will cover future concessions. There is no way to know for sure.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://townhall.com/tipsheet/landonmion/2022/03/08/ilhan-omar-says-us-providing-ukraine-with-military-aid-could-be-disastrous-n2604303Replies: @Mr. Hack
https://youtu.be/tnPG1v61AEkReplies: @Beckow, @Thrax
As so often before, when someone expresses a different opinion your anger gets better of you and you escape into colorful language and outright silliness. Maybe it medicates you, maybe you are like that – lots of people in the West are not fully grown-up and can’t think without being overcome by instant emotions.
As things happen and change our understanding of the situation also changes, what would you suggest as an alternative? To mindlessly repeat a few ideological points?
Whether they were forced into it or by a plan, Russia is now grinding down the Kiev forces in Donbas and the south. They kind of announced today that the war goal is: Donbas plus south, with a link to Transnistria. We don’t know their motivation, all we have is what is happening and what the sides say.
The question is: can Russia push the Ukie army out of Donbas and the south? The follow-up: what do they do with those lands and would Kiev be able to maintain armed resistance in those regions?
That’s what is going on. You don’t like it so you yell at people, including RU. What does that accomplish? Offer a better perspective and stay away from the constant infantile ad hominem attacks. This is a forum to exchange views, not a late-night in a pub.
A couple of Dutch guys aggregating such intel for edgy war nerd audiences could be adjuncts of Dutch military intelligence. It’s not a hard thing to believe.
Ritter is a little over the top in some statements though. Dies seem to be currying favor for future gigs with Moscow. Not saying he’s a spy btw but he knows he’s on the outs with US sponsorship.
Typically your best bet is to look for analysts in 3rd party countries at a distance. I keep an eye on Indian media but there is a distinct disinterest among even the educated public for this war. Indians are fully pre-occupied with the Asia-Pacific and to them this war only exists as a headache to be managed in terms of inflation, fertiliser supply etc.
I suspect China probably has a lot of smart commentary, but most of that isn't available in English.
You’re way off here! I was only responding to you ludicrous statement regarding how Russia “benefits” from the war in Ukraine? It’s not my fault, that you are now scratching your head and asking yourself “what was I thinking when I wrote that”? Trying to disentangle yourself from a pretty dumb statement wont work this time Beckow. Here, read it again and try and respond:
Remeber, the war in Ukraine “benefits” Russia in many ways…
How is this any different from say Paris or say London or Brussels or Amsterdam? Or Sarajevo? Or Minnesota?
How could Iraqis profit from having their main national resource privatised at the point of a gun? On behalf of the Israelis I might add. Saddam was a bastard but he really was their bastard.
The then remaining Americans would be in some military bases where they would pay a handsome rent and I would have banned their soldiers from going out, except in special zones, were I to maintain cultural sensitivities.
By doing this, I would have secured the country, got favourable trade deals, received a huge amount of aid for free and that would all have been very useful.
Instead, Iraqis collectively murdered a million other Iraqis, blew all of their own sh*t up and generally acted like boring, old predictable HBD said they would.
The analogy to American black people in the "ghetto" as regards US government social services, NGOs and police services is very apt. See #BLM riots and see Iraqis militias infighting. Imagine how much better black lives would be in America if they stopped killing each other and used all of that #BLM funding for social infrastructure and to keep their streets clean.
Anyway, I don't know when it happened, but the whole of the political spectrum now tries to look really clever by ignoring the basic facts of human genetics. It is like what is true is just not exciting enough.
So you have arch-narcissists claiming that the Chinese government must be ultra-competent because they reached middle income in record time, but with a population that everyone deep down knows is basically first-rate. So the truth is actually that they'd have to be world-historically incompetent to do worse!
Or you have the equally silly position, whereby people say that America is failing black people, despite American black people being the richest black people in the world, and actually richer on average than white people in Europe.
In this light, you can see that the Iraq war was a stupid disaster because of HBD. #BLM is a stupid disaster because of HBD. And we can see that both Putinism and the CCP are incompetent bungling systems because they do much , much worse than HBD suggests they should. In other words, why is China the laggard of East Asia and why is Russia the poorest white country that also has huge natural resources?
The most boring truth is that Iraq and #BLM were doomed to fail luxuries born of a system that otherwise worked, so it could afford those luxuries. Yes, the system might have selected on luxuries which weren't doomed to fail, and that would have been better, but basic facts of human genetic potential are too dreary for most people it seems.
This both explains why the US can move quickly on from these failures and also why they were basically altruistic, in as much as anything is altruistic. Meanwhile, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is destroying the Russian military, obviously has no altruistic component, except in the way that everything has some excuse of altruism, and the failure is not in how the Ukrainians have responded but how incompetently the Russians have invaded.
Or to bring it all down to a silly thought experiment. If we both start schools with the intention of churning out students with the best tests scores, and one of the schools gets the best facilities, best methods and best teachers and the other gets a shack with a few internet connections and a copy of the exam syllabus, then I'll take the shack school, if I get the 140+ IQ students and you get the 80-IQ students. Just don't go around telling me that the shack was the real advantage afterwards. That's trying to be smart by avoiding the stark reality. It is therefore very dumb.
The fact that no-one, in any part of the world, wants to acknowledge the realities of HBD is the key component in our weird global political discourse. I know it seems very mean and disparaging to say that some people are kind of stupid on average and other people are not, and that this particular inquality cannot be fixed, but true love is seeing people for how they are, not as your own wishful fantasy. But the vast majority of humans can't get past their own fears to embrace true love and so we're stuck with these bizarre projected out political pantomimes and unmoored narratives of nonsense.
I don't expect you to begin to understand my comment, but trust me that the root to being smarter and being more attuned to reality is inward. You have to be able to separate fear from love and what is just you from what is outside. Even though to do so is to paradoxically to recognise that everything inside is outside and vice versa.
If you cannot do both of these things, and although they look like opposites, they are actually the same, then you will be constantly boxing your own shadow and little part of your perception will ever alight on what else actually is or even who you actually are.Replies: @utu, @Beckow
How will Ukraine mount an offensive to retake lost ground?
The map changed because the Russian Military withdrew from the area around Kiev.
-- Is that a loss for Russia? Yes.
-- Were those troops destroyed? No.
-- Will they turn up in the Ukrainian East? Yes.
So "net net". Russian armor left an area where they were vulnerable to NLAW. They are repositioning to a joint services front where they will have flank infantry support against NLAW units. That is a less than promising development for the Ukraine side that depended on small unit victories for most of their wins.
It genuinely looks bad for both sides, and Russia has nothing to offer Zelensky to achieve an armistice. It is possible to wind up where Both Sides Lose!
PEACE 😇Replies: @Beckow
That’s the story of almost all wars: US in Iraq? lose-lose, Libya, Serbia, even Vietnam same..no sane person on either side would do it again. But we have a war in Ukraine and there is no going back.
There are a lot of distracting stories thrown around to obfuscate what has been going on. What happened in the last 6 weeks is that Russia and their Donbas allies took over large territories especially along the Black See coast. The West is frantically resupplying Kiev with arms and trying to crash the Russian economy – they openly state that the goal is to make Russia pay as high a price as possible. They usually don’t specify for what, but to any thinking person it is obvious the high price is for Russia winning in Ukraine.
Russia attempted to get its goals without this much fighting, for whatever reason Kiev refused. It is unlikely that Russia’s economy will collapse – they have too many resources for themselves and the world to be impacted by what are effectively only financial sanctions. “Finance” is a virtual concept, it can only be applied effectively if that “finance” also controls the underlying material resources. In this case the West doesn’t because those resources are in Russia. You don’t crush the real economy by playing with spreadsheets or slides.
Regarding Ukrainian resistance: people fight until they don’t. They either get eliminated or give up. Some never give up, some will move west. Ukraine doesn’t have the demographic profile of a country that has an unlimited supply of young males to sacrifice – that matters in wars. Maybe there are “miracle weapons” or Nato invades from Poland or Romania, but maybe not.
The water flows downstream, what will happen is rather preordained. Zelensky and his sponsors should had thought about it harder and be statesmen and not performers.
Look, Ukraine’s successful propaganda war may not allow them to defeat the Russian army, but it does help them get billions of dollars of new weaponry from the US and NATO, some of which is probably stolen and sold. So I think faking a few Tweets would be a very cost-effective strategy in that regard.
Since faking Tweets is so easy and obvious, I think we should assume that it’s being done unless there’s strong evidence to the contrary. We already know that some of the utterly ridiculous fake-Tweets about that super-pilot and the martyred island garrison went viral. The problem with social media-oriented people is that they tend to believe anything they see in such Tweet.
Meanwhile, I just can’t see any obvious reason why American military experts like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Larry Johnson would be lying. Suppose you’re correct and within a few weeks it’s clear that the Russian army has been defeated, with the loss of 20,000 casualties and half their modern vehicles. Then they’ll all look totally ridiculous and no one will ever trust their opinions on military matters again. So maybe they’re mistaken, but I think they’re being honest.
During the Iraq War, all the media people who were correct were purged and stayed purged even after they were proven correct. Meanwhile, virtually none of the MSM people who were wrong had their careers negatively impacted. I think that historical tilt explains a lot of the current MSM tilt.
how Ukraine would fall in three days back in February.
If you are going to just dismiss out of hand all the other English-language military analysts, you can check out the assessments of the Russian former FSB officer who led the creation of the puppet "separatist" republics, Igor "Strelkov" Girkin: Putin's endemically corrupt gangster state failed at every level diplomacy, military, industry, etc. This is what happens with egomaniac dictators: they surround themselves with sycophants rather than competent professionals. https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1516796704816832512?t=HyFZJuZzzNUg70TBtbetdw&s=19
If instead of listening only to those three American observers (that I also find credible as far as it goes), you spent a little time going through the Telegram channels of some Russians covering the war and actually doing the fighting in Donbass (eg https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com), you would discover that the Russians are struggling to get drones to correct their artillery strikes while the Ukrainians have them at the platoon level, that they are slowly starting to receive them through donations organized by volunteers who buy cheap Chinese Mavic 2 and 3 civilian drones, that some of these deliveries have been stopped by Russian Customs officials at the border with Donbass because they continue operating in their usual bureaucratic way, that the few drones they initially received from military sources were inoperable due to depleted batteries, etc. Then perhaps the Russian performance, slow progress and changes of strategy in this war would start to make more sense to you as well.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Thulean Friend
You omit a key part: “at this point“. We are living today not on February 22, what has happened cannot unhappen.
I listed three things that – at this point – are of benefit to Russia if the war goes on longer:
1. Economy is a mess: having a war hides that and allows for measures that would be impossible if an armistice was signed. This also applies to EU and US: blaming shortages and inflation on Russia is easier than solving them. And of course, Ukraine with 30-50% drop in economic activity that would be very hard to restart – Kiev may get billions in aid now, if they sign a peace deal probably not.
2. High tensions benefit all sides: it allows for censorship, no ability to review how we git into this mess, attacking opposition as “traitors” – this is happening everywhere.
3. Longer war will destroy more of the Ukrainian military: weapons, soldiers, etc… in an obscene way having longer wars leads to a more stable peace. Short “victorious” wars often amount to nothing, and have to be refought.
If you disagree with those three points tell us why. But address what people say not what you think about them.
https://youtu.be/tnPG1v61AEkReplies: @Beckow, @Thrax
Ukraine is receiving new shipments of howitzers, drones and tanks while Russia’s industry was already suffering and has now seen three installations mysteriously burn down in the last couple days. All that is “missing” from the Ukrainian wishlist is aircraft.
Ukrainian morale is high and won’t subside anytime soon as they all want to avenge the thousands raped and murdered and cities leveled by Putin’s hordes whereas Russia has been reduced to importing mercenaries from Africa and conscripting all able-bodied (looks debatable in some cases) men in occupied territory.
I think Ukraine will win in three-four months unless Poutine resorts to using WMDs. They may win sooner if Russia’s schemes can’t keep inflation from spiraling out of control.
According to this story, there are only 5,000-10,000 microchipped Swedes:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/04/joseph-mercola/human-microchip-implants-and-the-internet-of-bodies/
George IslamoSoros, a native European, deceives Americans in America. The IslamoSoros also deceives Ukrainians in Ukraine, and Russians in Russia.
You a correct that there are other leaders in Taqiyya deception. The entire WEF Muslim SJW Davos enterprise is designed to push Open [Muslim] Borders. It will continue to do so after The IslamoSoros loses mortal form and descends to the nether realms.
I think you just affirmed my underlying point about the perfidy of SJW Islamic Globalism. Both Ukraine and Russia were tricked into this conflict.
________
Ilhan Omar’s motives are difficult to follow. She actually appears to be bucking her paymaster George IslamoSoros: (1)
Most likely, she is being prepped as “controlled opposition” that will cover future concessions. There is no way to know for sure.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://townhall.com/tipsheet/landonmion/2022/03/08/ilhan-omar-says-us-providing-ukraine-with-military-aid-could-be-disastrous-n2604303
Since faking Tweets is so easy and obvious, I think we should assume that it's being done unless there's strong evidence to the contrary. We already know that some of the utterly ridiculous fake-Tweets about that super-pilot and the martyred island garrison went viral. The problem with social media-oriented people is that they tend to believe anything they see in such Tweet.
Meanwhile, I just can't see any obvious reason why American military experts like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Larry Johnson would be lying. Suppose you're correct and within a few weeks it's clear that the Russian army has been defeated, with the loss of 20,000 casualties and half their modern vehicles. Then they'll all look totally ridiculous and no one will ever trust their opinions on military matters again. So maybe they're mistaken, but I think they're being honest.
During the Iraq War, all the media people who were correct were purged and stayed purged even after they were proven correct. Meanwhile, virtually none of the MSM people who were wrong had their careers negatively impacted. I think that historical tilt explains a lot of the current MSM tilt.Replies: @Thrax, @Mr. Hack, @Mikel
Douglas MacGregor and Scott Ritter are Russia shills with frequent appearances on RT, naturally they were making brave predictions about
how Ukraine would fall in three days back in February.
If you are going to just dismiss out of hand all the other English-language military analysts, you can check out the assessments of the Russian former FSB officer who led the creation of the puppet “separatist” republics, Igor “Strelkov” Girkin: Putin’s endemically corrupt gangster state failed at every level diplomacy, military, industry, etc. This is what happens with egomaniac dictators: they surround themselves with sycophants rather than competent professionals. https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1516796704816832512?t=HyFZJuZzzNUg70TBtbetdw&s=19
Keep us updated, AP.
Did you strike up a conversation? Seems like a very odd place to be, so probably an interesting person.
In what way?
I assume Warsaw is different, but Poland I’ve seen is about as European as Ukraine.
Kharkiv speaks Russian and the cityscape looks rather Russian; people there don’t want to be ruled by Moscow and now hate Russia because Russia has bombed them.
Polish roads even in the deep countryside are better than American ones. And villages look more prosperous too. No poor rundown trailer parks.
If you want to be credible and, more importantly, have yourself an understanding of reality, you need to allow yourself the possibility of nobody having ever shown evidence of paranormal powers under controlled conditions because perhaps nobody (or exceedingly few people) really has such powers, which also happens to be the most logical explanation.
If I claim to be able to lift a 1,000 lb rock, it is very reasonable for people who doubt my claim to ask me to show them my capabilities under conditions where they can verify my feat: weigh the rock, lift it in front of them with no artificial help, etc. If I then claim that I am only able to do it when people aren't watching me with such left-brained ideas in their minds, I must be prepared to not be believed.
Likewise, I think that if Barbarossa is able to detect objects underground with his dowsing rods with an accuracy higher than pure chance, he is missing the opportunity to pocket $250,000. That's what the Center for Inquiry Investigations Group in the US has been offering anyone with that kind of powers since the year 2000 and nobody has been able to get the prize yet. I don't know why he shouldn't give it a try. He could maybe pay his mortgage off or do something useful for him or his loved ones with that money. He could even give all the money to a charity if he feels that showing his skills for selfish reasons would somehow spoil the experiment.
But note that I am not saying that we shouldn't have an open mind. There are certainly many things that we don't know and some of them are quite mysterious, like the UFO stuff that I didn't believe in until recently but after the latest revelations by the US military appear to be real phenomena.Replies: @Barbarossa, @AaronB
Oooh! I didn’t realize there was a US prize that would encompass dowsing. I’ll actually look into it, and keep you all posted.
Also: what brand of gloves do you use? : )Replies: @Thulean Friend
The official ambition of the city is to make it 365 days a year. But in practice, from late December until late February, conditions deteriorate significantly. Gist of the issue is that they are still not salting properly, and every year there are protests, which are immediately followed up with grand claims that a fix is imminent… which doesn’t arrive.
If you stay on the main paths, things can be okay but I typically prefer to take all kinds of shortcuts though narrow alleys and snaking paths through parks. Once the ice really gets going it can be outright dangerous, even for walking. I change my tyres and stick to the main paths, but sometimes I just trade in the bike and use public transportation and/or walking instead. So I’d say, for good conditions we’re looking at 10 months per year.
Malmbergs. I’ve tried all kinds of specialised gear from fancier firms but I keep coming back to Malmbergs. They are mostly selling gloves to electricians, but I have found a particular model which both gives me good grip and simultaneously allows me to use my phone if I need to check something without taking them off.
Since faking Tweets is so easy and obvious, I think we should assume that it's being done unless there's strong evidence to the contrary. We already know that some of the utterly ridiculous fake-Tweets about that super-pilot and the martyred island garrison went viral. The problem with social media-oriented people is that they tend to believe anything they see in such Tweet.
Meanwhile, I just can't see any obvious reason why American military experts like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Larry Johnson would be lying. Suppose you're correct and within a few weeks it's clear that the Russian army has been defeated, with the loss of 20,000 casualties and half their modern vehicles. Then they'll all look totally ridiculous and no one will ever trust their opinions on military matters again. So maybe they're mistaken, but I think they're being honest.
During the Iraq War, all the media people who were correct were purged and stayed purged even after they were proven correct. Meanwhile, virtually none of the MSM people who were wrong had their careers negatively impacted. I think that historical tilt explains a lot of the current MSM tilt.Replies: @Thrax, @Mr. Hack, @Mikel
Thanks to your input here, I did give Ritter a long listen. It was interesting, and although he often gave excellent reasons why Ukraine might just trip Russia up, he always ended up siding with the Russian point of view, of victory in the end. From the little bits and pieces that I’ve picked up here at this blog, it seems that Ritter has managed to somehow uningratiate himself with Western military think tanks and is trying to secure employment perhaps in Russia? Even Wokechoke, one of the better pro-Russia bloggers here, has recently cast some aspersion on Ritter and his motivations (see comment #547). I’m not familiar with Macregor and Johnson, so I can’t comment about their opinions.
Ritter is a little over the top in some statements though. Dies seem to be currying favor for future gigs with Moscow. Not saying he’s a spy btw but he knows he’s on the outs with US sponsorship.Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Dmitry
Yep. I rank Ritter above the vast majority of MSM analysts, but he does get a bit “Rah Rah Russia” at times, which makes me take what he says with a grain of salt – though I still give his opinions more credence than your average CNN trash “analysis”. It’s very hard to find smart and knowledgeable people who are also objective or at least try to.
Typically your best bet is to look for analysts in 3rd party countries at a distance. I keep an eye on Indian media but there is a distinct disinterest among even the educated public for this war. Indians are fully pre-occupied with the Asia-Pacific and to them this war only exists as a headache to be managed in terms of inflation, fertiliser supply etc.
I suspect China probably has a lot of smart commentary, but most of that isn’t available in English.
Ritter comes over as a giddy “fan boy” for Russia’s hypersonic weapon program. As such, I have little over all belief in his capabilities.
Macgregor has repeatedly appeared on Tucker Carlson’s program and is highly convincing. Even if he is not 100% right, there is every reason to believe he is sincere. He has also questioned U.S. military capability in a very pointed and believable manner.
PEACE 😇
Last photo from Ireland I saw was 6/9 non-Euros, posing around a Ukrainian flag. On one end, it was held by an African. This was an official government post. As far as I can determine, they seem to have taken it down from twitter, but one can still find it on nationalist Telegram.
1 black African
5 MENA (likely all Muslims, judging from headgear of women)
1 already miscegenating Ukrainian woman, with her arm linked around the African
2 people that I actually had some sympathy with.
It’s worse than I thought. I may have to increase my estimate to 2/3.
There were three Ukrainian flags in the picture – one for every Ukrainian. But only half of one for each non-Euro invader.
If you stay on the main paths, things can be okay but I typically prefer to take all kinds of shortcuts though narrow alleys and snaking paths through parks. Once the ice really gets going it can be outright dangerous, even for walking. I change my tyres and stick to the main paths, but sometimes I just trade in the bike and use public transportation and/or walking instead. So I'd say, for good conditions we're looking at 10 months per year.Malmbergs. I've tried all kinds of specialised gear from fancier firms but I keep coming back to Malmbergs. They are mostly selling gloves to electricians, but I have found a particular model which both gives me good grip and simultaneously allows me to use my phone if I need to check something without taking them off.Replies: @songbird
If Sweden deported its Somalis, they would have enough money to build tunnels for bicyclists, so they could cycle comfortably on the harshest winter days.
Yes please. Unfortunately, there used to be a \$1 mill prize that another group of skeptics started offering in 1964 but they gave up in 2015 after no one was able to win it. It would be most interesting for me to have a firsthand account of how these tests are done.
As I explained in my previous comment, I don't even think I would really classify my dowsing as particularly "paranormal" or spiritual. It's not even that much of a fringy thing in all honesty.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/21/565746002/u-k-water-companies-sometimes-use-dowsing-rods-to-find-pipes
The above story does state that there is no scientific proof that the dowsing works, but this flies in the face of my actual experience for what it's worth.
The question of scientific certainty is an interesting one, which I'll illustrate with a personal story. A couple years ago I herniated a disk in my lower back which gave me crippling sciatica. I was barely able to stand upright for more than few hours, couple lift literally nothing over a few pounds and was riddled with secondary muscle issues from my bodies attempts to compensate. I had tried different physical therapists and was finally seeing a good one, but progress was glacial.
Someone mentioned an inversion table as an option. I looked up the medical evidence and all official sources claimed that there was no evidence that they did much of anything, though they might help in some cases. The inversion table was relegated by the medical literature to barely above quackery.
However, there are a ton of reviews on Amazon and other places in which people claim it was a literally life saving device. In the end I picked one up, and found that it indeed completely changed my life. Within about two days my sciatic pain had decreased by 75% and the combination of the table and the good physical therapist saw me on a fast track to complete recovery.
Today, I am able to lift and work like I ever did (though I'm smarter in avoiding idiotic abuse of my body) and I hop on the table periodically as needed if I feel I'm getting bent out of shape. For me the inversion table really was life changing. I've recommended trying it to numerous people I've known who have had back issues, with a good success rate.
The point of this rambling boring story? If I had followed the dictates of what the "science" had established as reliable I might have continued to reject the inversion table out of hand. My personal experience as well as my observation of others I know has flown directly in the face of the medical research. So I take such notions of iron clad certainty with a grain of salt. I'm skeptical of them because they are often incomplete, slanted, or just lacking in interested investigative parties.Replies: @Mikel, @Mikel
The EU is now taking an L and admitting that they could think about buying oil in rubles. This is under discussion and not yet finalised, but even this public admission is a huge loss of face.
—
Josep Borell, the EU foreign minister, has ruled out an oil embargo on Russia. There are simply too many countries against it, and Germany remains among those in opposition. When Germany has decided, the rest of the union typically follows.
—
A deputy Russian general has publicly said that they need a large chunk of southern Ukraine to create a landbridge to Crimea. Some have speculated that Russia wants all the way to (and including) Transnistria. Interestingly, when Western media sought a comment from the Kremlin they refused to deny it and instead said they’d be “back with an answer later”.
—
Coach Red Pill is apparently back and decidedly not dead.
I take OSINT with a grain of salt, but this guy was one of the first to report the sinking of the Moskva. There seems to be an escalating campaign of sabotage in Russia, who’s behind it is anyone’s guess
Were I in charge of Iraqis just after the invasion and Iraqis would do what I say, I would have been peaceful, got the US to build me some awesome new infrastructure for the \$2 trillion they were willing to outlay and watched the Americans mostly leave Iraq a developed democracy after a couple of years.
The then remaining Americans would be in some military bases where they would pay a handsome rent and I would have banned their soldiers from going out, except in special zones, were I to maintain cultural sensitivities.
By doing this, I would have secured the country, got favourable trade deals, received a huge amount of aid for free and that would all have been very useful.
Instead, Iraqis collectively murdered a million other Iraqis, blew all of their own sh*t up and generally acted like boring, old predictable HBD said they would.
The analogy to American black people in the “ghetto” as regards US government social services, NGOs and police services is very apt. See #BLM riots and see Iraqis militias infighting. Imagine how much better black lives would be in America if they stopped killing each other and used all of that #BLM funding for social infrastructure and to keep their streets clean.
Anyway, I don’t know when it happened, but the whole of the political spectrum now tries to look really clever by ignoring the basic facts of human genetics. It is like what is true is just not exciting enough.
So you have arch-narcissists claiming that the Chinese government must be ultra-competent because they reached middle income in record time, but with a population that everyone deep down knows is basically first-rate. So the truth is actually that they’d have to be world-historically incompetent to do worse!
Or you have the equally silly position, whereby people say that America is failing black people, despite American black people being the richest black people in the world, and actually richer on average than white people in Europe.
In this light, you can see that the Iraq war was a stupid disaster because of HBD. #BLM is a stupid disaster because of HBD. And we can see that both Putinism and the CCP are incompetent bungling systems because they do much , much worse than HBD suggests they should. In other words, why is China the laggard of East Asia and why is Russia the poorest white country that also has huge natural resources?
The most boring truth is that Iraq and #BLM were doomed to fail luxuries born of a system that otherwise worked, so it could afford those luxuries. Yes, the system might have selected on luxuries which weren’t doomed to fail, and that would have been better, but basic facts of human genetic potential are too dreary for most people it seems.
This both explains why the US can move quickly on from these failures and also why they were basically altruistic, in as much as anything is altruistic. Meanwhile, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is destroying the Russian military, obviously has no altruistic component, except in the way that everything has some excuse of altruism, and the failure is not in how the Ukrainians have responded but how incompetently the Russians have invaded.
Or to bring it all down to a silly thought experiment. If we both start schools with the intention of churning out students with the best tests scores, and one of the schools gets the best facilities, best methods and best teachers and the other gets a shack with a few internet connections and a copy of the exam syllabus, then I’ll take the shack school, if I get the 140+ IQ students and you get the 80-IQ students. Just don’t go around telling me that the shack was the real advantage afterwards. That’s trying to be smart by avoiding the stark reality. It is therefore very dumb.
The fact that no-one, in any part of the world, wants to acknowledge the realities of HBD is the key component in our weird global political discourse. I know it seems very mean and disparaging to say that some people are kind of stupid on average and other people are not, and that this particular inquality cannot be fixed, but true love is seeing people for how they are, not as your own wishful fantasy. But the vast majority of humans can’t get past their own fears to embrace true love and so we’re stuck with these bizarre projected out political pantomimes and unmoored narratives of nonsense.
I don’t expect you to begin to understand my comment, but trust me that the root to being smarter and being more attuned to reality is inward. You have to be able to separate fear from love and what is just you from what is outside. Even though to do so is to paradoxically to recognise that everything inside is outside and vice versa.
If you cannot do both of these things, and although they look like opposites, they are actually the same, then you will be constantly boxing your own shadow and little part of your perception will ever alight on what else actually is or even who you actually are.
In the very beginning of occupation Gen. Jay Garner was in charge of Iraq and it seems that he wanted to carry out a smooth transition as you describe helping Iraqis just as he helped Kurds after the first Iraq war but he was quickly replaced by Paul Bremer who brought completely different set of prerogatives from Washington which were as if Washington wanted to destroy Iraq and cause as much harm to Iraq and its people as possible. And he did everything to instigate disorder, sectarian fighting and attacks against the occupying forces. Iraqis could have done nothing to change the dynamics and there course of events that Paul Bremer set in the motion.
The then remaining Americans would be in some military bases where they would pay a handsome rent and I would have banned their soldiers from going out, except in special zones, were I to maintain cultural sensitivities.
By doing this, I would have secured the country, got favourable trade deals, received a huge amount of aid for free and that would all have been very useful.
Instead, Iraqis collectively murdered a million other Iraqis, blew all of their own sh*t up and generally acted like boring, old predictable HBD said they would.
The analogy to American black people in the "ghetto" as regards US government social services, NGOs and police services is very apt. See #BLM riots and see Iraqis militias infighting. Imagine how much better black lives would be in America if they stopped killing each other and used all of that #BLM funding for social infrastructure and to keep their streets clean.
Anyway, I don't know when it happened, but the whole of the political spectrum now tries to look really clever by ignoring the basic facts of human genetics. It is like what is true is just not exciting enough.
So you have arch-narcissists claiming that the Chinese government must be ultra-competent because they reached middle income in record time, but with a population that everyone deep down knows is basically first-rate. So the truth is actually that they'd have to be world-historically incompetent to do worse!
Or you have the equally silly position, whereby people say that America is failing black people, despite American black people being the richest black people in the world, and actually richer on average than white people in Europe.
In this light, you can see that the Iraq war was a stupid disaster because of HBD. #BLM is a stupid disaster because of HBD. And we can see that both Putinism and the CCP are incompetent bungling systems because they do much , much worse than HBD suggests they should. In other words, why is China the laggard of East Asia and why is Russia the poorest white country that also has huge natural resources?
The most boring truth is that Iraq and #BLM were doomed to fail luxuries born of a system that otherwise worked, so it could afford those luxuries. Yes, the system might have selected on luxuries which weren't doomed to fail, and that would have been better, but basic facts of human genetic potential are too dreary for most people it seems.
This both explains why the US can move quickly on from these failures and also why they were basically altruistic, in as much as anything is altruistic. Meanwhile, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is destroying the Russian military, obviously has no altruistic component, except in the way that everything has some excuse of altruism, and the failure is not in how the Ukrainians have responded but how incompetently the Russians have invaded.
Or to bring it all down to a silly thought experiment. If we both start schools with the intention of churning out students with the best tests scores, and one of the schools gets the best facilities, best methods and best teachers and the other gets a shack with a few internet connections and a copy of the exam syllabus, then I'll take the shack school, if I get the 140+ IQ students and you get the 80-IQ students. Just don't go around telling me that the shack was the real advantage afterwards. That's trying to be smart by avoiding the stark reality. It is therefore very dumb.
The fact that no-one, in any part of the world, wants to acknowledge the realities of HBD is the key component in our weird global political discourse. I know it seems very mean and disparaging to say that some people are kind of stupid on average and other people are not, and that this particular inquality cannot be fixed, but true love is seeing people for how they are, not as your own wishful fantasy. But the vast majority of humans can't get past their own fears to embrace true love and so we're stuck with these bizarre projected out political pantomimes and unmoored narratives of nonsense.
I don't expect you to begin to understand my comment, but trust me that the root to being smarter and being more attuned to reality is inward. You have to be able to separate fear from love and what is just you from what is outside. Even though to do so is to paradoxically to recognise that everything inside is outside and vice versa.
If you cannot do both of these things, and although they look like opposites, they are actually the same, then you will be constantly boxing your own shadow and little part of your perception will ever alight on what else actually is or even who you actually are.Replies: @utu, @Beckow
“Were I in charge of Iraqis just after the invasion and Iraqis would do what I say, I would have been peaceful, ” – You would be fired within few weeks and replaced with Paul Bremer, you silly woman.
In the very beginning of occupation Gen. Jay Garner was in charge of Iraq and it seems that he wanted to carry out a smooth transition as you describe helping Iraqis just as he helped Kurds after the first Iraq war but he was quickly replaced by Paul Bremer who brought completely different set of prerogatives from Washington which were as if Washington wanted to destroy Iraq and cause as much harm to Iraq and its people as possible. And he did everything to instigate disorder, sectarian fighting and attacks against the occupying forces. Iraqis could have done nothing to change the dynamics and there course of events that Paul Bremer set in the motion.
You a correct that there are other leaders in Taqiyya deception. The entire WEF Muslim SJW Davos enterprise is designed to push Open [Muslim] Borders. It will continue to do so after The IslamoSoros loses mortal form and descends to the nether realms.
I think you just affirmed my underlying point about the perfidy of SJW Islamic Globalism. Both Ukraine and Russia were tricked into this conflict.
________
Ilhan Omar's motives are difficult to follow. She actually appears to be bucking her paymaster George IslamoSoros: (1) Most likely, she is being prepped as "controlled opposition" that will cover future concessions. There is no way to know for sure.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://townhall.com/tipsheet/landonmion/2022/03/08/ilhan-omar-says-us-providing-ukraine-with-military-aid-could-be-disastrous-n2604303Replies: @Mr. Hack
How was Ukraine “tricked into this conflict”? Russia has been the aggressor, Ukraine has only been trying to defend its borders and its citizenry from barbaric slaughter. Was Ukraine to just lay down and fall down at the knees of Russia, and await the recanonization of Yanukovych or somebody else equally odious in character?
Were the same nefarious forces involved? Yep.
______As a hyper-ultra-super-partisan , you are trapped by your emotional rage at anyone not on "your" side. I am clearly not on Putin's side. I think he was foolish enough to be tricked. That is 180° opposed to an endorsement.Lets return to another point I made earlier: Do you really think that the civilians in Crimea are "Evil" and deserved to be deprived of water by the Ukrainian government? -- Even if you can find "legal theory" that justified punishing civilians, it is still wrong.
-- Even if you point at some other government as justification, it is still wrong.If your mind is so closed all you see is "Evil" not humans, you are headed down a dark road.PEACE 😇
__________(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/Replies: @Mr. Hack
Well, menial workers, too, will be needed (automation isn’t coming as soon as everyone desires). The Taiwanese work ethic is probably even higher than that of motivated Eastern Europeans in the West. Those from Hong Kong, their work ethic is through the roof. But I guess the same can be said about people from Northern China.
If the Russian media department thinks this is a good idea, they deserve to lose.
Third Worldists have been screaming that we aren’t even more inundated with hostile refugees, we don’t need Russian media denying us our self-determination too.
I just saw my second non-European, a very cute and pleasant SE Asian (Vietnamese?) waitress at a Michelin rated Polish restaurant.
I assume Warsaw is different, but Poland I’ve seen is about as European as Ukraine.
Kharkiv speaks Russian and the cityscape looks rather Russian; people there don’t want to be ruled by Moscow and now hate Russia because Russia has bombed them.
Polish roads even in the deep countryside are better than American ones. And villages look more prosperous too. No poor rundown trailer parks.
Another Zimmerman Telegram will unite the people of the US to obliterate RussiaChina.
I kindly refer the gentleman to the facts presented some moments ago.
Zelensky’s administration did announce their desire to point nukes at Russia. (1)
Threatening another country with nuclear Armageddon is “starting a war”. So, why did the Zelensky’s administration intentionally provoke Putin?
It makes little sense that Zelensky thought he could down all of Russia singly handedly. Thus, there is no great leap of logic to believe that he was fed misinformation. Zelensky thought the SJW Islamic WEF had given him an “Ace in the Hole” that would allow unlimited provocation. The IslamoSoros, and his peers, tricked Zelensky into over reach.
Lord only knows what fabrications SJW Islam fed to Putin via China. However, after Zelensky administration declared their intent to start nuclear war… How much conformation did Putin need before he was forced to act by his own intelligence arm?
Does this sound much like U.S. — Iraq? Yep.
Were the same nefarious forces involved? Yep.
______
As a hyper-ultra-super-partisan , you are trapped by your emotional rage at anyone not on “your” side. I am clearly not on Putin’s side. I think he was foolish enough to be tricked. That is 180° opposed to an endorsement.
Lets return to another point I made earlier:
Do you really think that the civilians in Crimea are “Evil” and deserved to be deprived of water by the Ukrainian government?
— Even if you can find “legal theory” that justified punishing civilians, it is still wrong.
— Even if you point at some other government as justification, it is still wrong.
If your mind is so closed all you see is “Evil” not humans, you are headed down a dark road.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/
The then remaining Americans would be in some military bases where they would pay a handsome rent and I would have banned their soldiers from going out, except in special zones, were I to maintain cultural sensitivities.
By doing this, I would have secured the country, got favourable trade deals, received a huge amount of aid for free and that would all have been very useful.
Instead, Iraqis collectively murdered a million other Iraqis, blew all of their own sh*t up and generally acted like boring, old predictable HBD said they would.
The analogy to American black people in the "ghetto" as regards US government social services, NGOs and police services is very apt. See #BLM riots and see Iraqis militias infighting. Imagine how much better black lives would be in America if they stopped killing each other and used all of that #BLM funding for social infrastructure and to keep their streets clean.
Anyway, I don't know when it happened, but the whole of the political spectrum now tries to look really clever by ignoring the basic facts of human genetics. It is like what is true is just not exciting enough.
So you have arch-narcissists claiming that the Chinese government must be ultra-competent because they reached middle income in record time, but with a population that everyone deep down knows is basically first-rate. So the truth is actually that they'd have to be world-historically incompetent to do worse!
Or you have the equally silly position, whereby people say that America is failing black people, despite American black people being the richest black people in the world, and actually richer on average than white people in Europe.
In this light, you can see that the Iraq war was a stupid disaster because of HBD. #BLM is a stupid disaster because of HBD. And we can see that both Putinism and the CCP are incompetent bungling systems because they do much , much worse than HBD suggests they should. In other words, why is China the laggard of East Asia and why is Russia the poorest white country that also has huge natural resources?
The most boring truth is that Iraq and #BLM were doomed to fail luxuries born of a system that otherwise worked, so it could afford those luxuries. Yes, the system might have selected on luxuries which weren't doomed to fail, and that would have been better, but basic facts of human genetic potential are too dreary for most people it seems.
This both explains why the US can move quickly on from these failures and also why they were basically altruistic, in as much as anything is altruistic. Meanwhile, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is destroying the Russian military, obviously has no altruistic component, except in the way that everything has some excuse of altruism, and the failure is not in how the Ukrainians have responded but how incompetently the Russians have invaded.
Or to bring it all down to a silly thought experiment. If we both start schools with the intention of churning out students with the best tests scores, and one of the schools gets the best facilities, best methods and best teachers and the other gets a shack with a few internet connections and a copy of the exam syllabus, then I'll take the shack school, if I get the 140+ IQ students and you get the 80-IQ students. Just don't go around telling me that the shack was the real advantage afterwards. That's trying to be smart by avoiding the stark reality. It is therefore very dumb.
The fact that no-one, in any part of the world, wants to acknowledge the realities of HBD is the key component in our weird global political discourse. I know it seems very mean and disparaging to say that some people are kind of stupid on average and other people are not, and that this particular inquality cannot be fixed, but true love is seeing people for how they are, not as your own wishful fantasy. But the vast majority of humans can't get past their own fears to embrace true love and so we're stuck with these bizarre projected out political pantomimes and unmoored narratives of nonsense.
I don't expect you to begin to understand my comment, but trust me that the root to being smarter and being more attuned to reality is inward. You have to be able to separate fear from love and what is just you from what is outside. Even though to do so is to paradoxically to recognise that everything inside is outside and vice versa.
If you cannot do both of these things, and although they look like opposites, they are actually the same, then you will be constantly boxing your own shadow and little part of your perception will ever alight on what else actually is or even who you actually are.Replies: @utu, @Beckow
A cosmic-size IF…
If I was a goat and the shepherds would do what I say, we would build an earthy paradise in the mountains…
Sorry, Laxa, it doesn’t work that way. It is what you actually did, what your society and governments do that sets the context. What you wrote has zero value as defense in any court, on earth or in heaven. In a democracy, it was all done in your name.
Really? So Bushes and Blairs and their “shock and awe” was all just idle talk? You are some seriously disturbed person, torn by guilt and childish excuse-making. What US, UK and Nato did to Iraq, Serbia, Libya, Syria was an order of magnitude worse, killed more people, destroyed more infrastructure than anything Russia has done so far.
Your pious nonsense changes nothing. We are living through the consequences of those previous crimes committed by the West, in the name of the West, and by people who are still celebrated in the West. You got nothing.
Julian is pro-Ukraine but fairly impartial. Ukraine should have the vehicles and artillery needed for effective offensives soon. Western instructors are training UAF with use of their howitzers and tanks being sent are familiar Soviet/Russian models. Drones will be easy for UA operators to use. Unfortunately, Russia has been digging in, so it will be slow and bloody progress.
Were the same nefarious forces involved? Yep.
______As a hyper-ultra-super-partisan , you are trapped by your emotional rage at anyone not on "your" side. I am clearly not on Putin's side. I think he was foolish enough to be tricked. That is 180° opposed to an endorsement.Lets return to another point I made earlier: Do you really think that the civilians in Crimea are "Evil" and deserved to be deprived of water by the Ukrainian government? -- Even if you can find "legal theory" that justified punishing civilians, it is still wrong.
-- Even if you point at some other government as justification, it is still wrong.If your mind is so closed all you see is "Evil" not humans, you are headed down a dark road.PEACE 😇
__________(1) From 2021 — https://www.the-sun.com/news/2713463/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin-2/Replies: @Mr. Hack
One is scrapping at the bottom of the barrel if one has to rely on one statement made by a diplomat to justify a full-out WW2 style war within Europe. But you can’t fault the diplomat for providing a truth filled opinion about Ukraine and its singular space within the world today. Do you really think that if Ukraine were a member of NATO today, or had some nuclear weaponry, that Russia would be tempted to so cavalierly attack it, as it has?
Where exactly did Zelensky make such a statement? It sounds like you’re making this one up?
I don’t have the luxury of treating this war as some sort of existential problem, while lounging on my sofa or near my computer, switching from one station to the next, feeding my ego with things that I like to hear. I have relatives that are actively involved in the resistance, others that have had to move away from their homes, scared out of their minds with what’s been going on in their home country, despising the Russians for inflicting pain and suffering on their countrymen. They don’t go for any of the crap that you can read here within UNZ, about how every civilian ever killed in Ukraine because of this war, is the result of some sort of Ukrainian false flag operations. No, they hear the truth first hand and know that it is Russian soldiers and not Ukrainian ones that are responsible for this carnage and slaughter. I can’t act dumb when I’m talking with them over the phone. I can’t flip the station and listen to somebody that is pointing the finger at Ukraine or the US.
Again, I think that you’ve got me mixed up with somebody else. I think that you know that but are a little bit too lazy to go back a few days and ferret out the truth about what I wrote. I never said that “the civilians in Crimea are Evil and deserve to be deprived of water by the Ukrainian government.” What I wrote is that water rights are complicated arrangements that are governed by laws. The states affected by Dnieper water rights have changed, de facto if not dejure, and the laws regulating these rights should be adjusted to affect the new realities. The haphazard manner in which Russia annexed the Crimea places no extraordinary burden on the Ukrainian government to bend over backwards to make life easier for the Crimeans. Remember, I also pointed out that not one single person has perished because of the damming of the canal? You didn’t acknowledge this fact then, and you probably won today either.
____
Here is my full quote that you truncated: And here is your quote of "legal theory" trying to justify cutting off water to civilians, which directly ties to the part of my post that you truncated. You again affirm that your position is (functionally), "civilians in Crimea deserved to be deprived of water". You then cite laws that say that cutting off the water is permissible.
Even if it is at some level "legal", is it "morally right"?
Even if you believe it is "legal" and "moral", you must grasp why Russia takes it as a provocation. This is the cycle of escalation.
____
I am not sure how to deal with the fact that almost every soldier on all sides has a smartphone. There are too many potential positive uses for them to be confiscated. A pre loaded map and even degraded GPS can help groups of cut off soldiers regroup to an emergency rally point. That by itself is invaluable to minimize losses and maintain fighting cohesion.
However, those phones allowed troops to see inflammatory material, such as alleged mutilation of POW's. Individual soldiers (and possibly civilians) on both sides have breached national command and control and committed "war crimes". Neither side has entirely clean hands.
____
I genuinely believe both Christian Orthodox "sides" were intentionally fed misleading and outright false information by anti-Christian operatives. I am sorry that Zelensky and his administration made mistakes. It is unfortunate that Putin and his administration made mistakes.
I understand that you are outraged that the invasion started. However, now that it has, there is no way to alter history so that event never happened. I instead pose a question that has a practical answer.
What is the best thing that can happen in the short term?
I would suggest an armistice that freeze both sides in place, moves 18 year old with rifles out of shooting range of each other, and takes another attempt at coming to some accommodation both side can live with.
This is admittedly imperfect, but all of the other options are worse.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
https://khpg.org/en/1608810165Replies: @Mr. Hack
If you want to be credible and, more importantly, have yourself an understanding of reality, you need to allow yourself the possibility of nobody having ever shown evidence of paranormal powers under controlled conditions because perhaps nobody (or exceedingly few people) really has such powers, which also happens to be the most logical explanation.
If I claim to be able to lift a 1,000 lb rock, it is very reasonable for people who doubt my claim to ask me to show them my capabilities under conditions where they can verify my feat: weigh the rock, lift it in front of them with no artificial help, etc. If I then claim that I am only able to do it when people aren't watching me with such left-brained ideas in their minds, I must be prepared to not be believed.
Likewise, I think that if Barbarossa is able to detect objects underground with his dowsing rods with an accuracy higher than pure chance, he is missing the opportunity to pocket $250,000. That's what the Center for Inquiry Investigations Group in the US has been offering anyone with that kind of powers since the year 2000 and nobody has been able to get the prize yet. I don't know why he shouldn't give it a try. He could maybe pay his mortgage off or do something useful for him or his loved ones with that money. He could even give all the money to a charity if he feels that showing his skills for selfish reasons would somehow spoil the experiment.
But note that I am not saying that we shouldn't have an open mind. There are certainly many things that we don't know and some of them are quite mysterious, like the UFO stuff that I didn't believe in until recently but after the latest revelations by the US military appear to be real phenomena.Replies: @Barbarossa, @AaronB
Well, as I said to you in another comment, these things cannot be proven (well, nothing can be proven 🙂 ), and you are certainly free to not find my ideas compelling!
Totally respect that.
That being said, I do not like the violence and coercion implied in the word “prove”, as in I have to compel you to assent against your will.
I think the far better approach is through experience.
And if someone can connect to nature, there is hope for him 🙂
Nice summary of twisting lies; they are gradually accepting reality that they themselves worked so hard to create.
What matters in any transaction is what the supplier gets as payment and Gazprom is receiving rubles to ruble accounts in a Russian bank. The payment is in rubles no matter how many steps EU customers make to hide it for PR reasons. The customers get gas, their euros are gone converted to rubles. The transaction is gas for rubles – no “euros” are left in EU banks. But stupid people will pretend not to understand it.
As a hypothetical — Do you accept that it is possible to be “legally right” but “morally wrong”?
____
Here is my full quote that you truncated:
And here is your quote of “legal theory” trying to justify cutting off water to civilians, which directly ties to the part of my post that you truncated.
You again affirm that your position is (functionally), “civilians in Crimea deserved to be deprived of water”. You then cite laws that say that cutting off the water is permissible.
Even if it is at some level “legal”, is it “morally right”?
Even if you believe it is “legal” and “moral”, you must grasp why Russia takes it as a provocation. This is the cycle of escalation.
____
I am not sure how to deal with the fact that almost every soldier on all sides has a smartphone. There are too many potential positive uses for them to be confiscated. A pre loaded map and even degraded GPS can help groups of cut off soldiers regroup to an emergency rally point. That by itself is invaluable to minimize losses and maintain fighting cohesion.
However, those phones allowed troops to see inflammatory material, such as alleged mutilation of POW’s. Individual soldiers (and possibly civilians) on both sides have breached national command and control and committed “war crimes”. Neither side has entirely clean hands.
____
I genuinely believe both Christian Orthodox “sides” were intentionally fed misleading and outright false information by anti-Christian operatives. I am sorry that Zelensky and his administration made mistakes. It is unfortunate that Putin and his administration made mistakes.
I understand that you are outraged that the invasion started. However, now that it has, there is no way to alter history so that event never happened. I instead pose a question that has a practical answer.
What is the best thing that can happen in the short term?
I would suggest an armistice that freeze both sides in place, moves 18 year old with rifles out of shooting range of each other, and takes another attempt at coming to some accommodation both side can live with.
This is admittedly imperfect, but all of the other options are worse.
PEACE 😇
Although if you're interested in authors that dealt with similar thematic issues of sex, propriety and relationships as Lawrence, George Meredith and Samuel Butler are alright.
Although I don't find the English write very good romantic literature generally (too emotionally balanced a people?), the Russians do that subgenre much better.Of course for the early 20th century reaction to modernity the best English writers are pretty obvious: H.G. Wells, Huxley, Orwell's essays, and surprisingly Jack London has aged very well. Rhys Davies could write quite movingly about the impact of industrialisation on small Welsh towns. Also Joseph Conrad, though his outlook remained very Eastern European and not at all English.Replies: @AaronB, @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen
I never understood Lawrence. The writing didn’t say much to me.
I have just about heard of Rhys Davies due to a Welsh literary view I subscribe to, Planet. I have never read him. I suppose I must now.
Yevardian's negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of 'romantic literature' better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.
Russia has a long tradtion of modernizing by importing complete systems from abroad. Doing things from the ground up is rare. The steel workds in Mariupol (US and Belgian), Dontesk (Welsh) and Lugansk (Scottish) were all foreign. They were all built using imported parts. All of them imported the furnance bricks necessary to smelt the iron as a consumable. The alleged Russian word for furnace brick, Dinas, is the name of the site in Wales that made them.
Import subsititution is no exception. There have been 1695 approved and funded projects since 2015. They have overwhelimingly been in food production and pharmaceuticals. Some software too, notably 1C.
I know a lot about the food projects. Many large production units have been built for chickens, eggs, pigs, salad crops, dair, beer and bread production were built on a turn key basis by European firms. There were Russian builders of such plants but only on a very small scale with ad hoc technology and low productivity. Russia has boosted production so much that, aided by a drop in demand due to reduced living standards, it has been exporting chicken and pork.
This is all to be lost because there are modern Dinas bricks.
3 day old chicks, boar semen, tomato and other seeds, bull semen, hops are largely imported. Large scale processing plants are built aroaund breed characteristics like feed consumption, growth rate, maturity date, size. They can’t operate without the exact breed. Without the genetic material from Europe they are stranded assets. Brewers like Carlsberg and Anheuser Busch are seling up. This is said to be in response to reputational consequences of staying in Russia. Actually they haven’t got a hop supply chain they can use.. In the case of beer Turkish and South African firms might step in. For the rest, no. TheChinese have production problems of their own due to animal disease and Dovid. The South Americans were badly burned by Russian business practices from 2015 onwards when they were courted as alternatives to European food suppliers.
In the coming months the Russian food supply will dwindle.
MEanwhile, SAP which holds 48% of the ERP market in Russia is withdrawing. When contracts come to an end they will not be renewed. Russian manufacturing and retail distribution will descend into chaos. Some military suppliers use 1C but even there tank and anti aircraft system factories have shut due to lack of componments.
Then there are the no yet airtight but still damaging bans on banking, shipping, insurance which will have expanding and accelerating system wide effects as time goes on. Even if Putin can mobilize and equipm a million men by the Epiphany Frosts next year, their supply chain will be shot to hell.
These factors will not instantly shut down Russia but in months time there will have been a severe crash in living standards.
Also posted elsehwere on Unz. Might put it in my own blog, with references.
Totally respect that.
That being said, I do not like the violence and coercion implied in the word "prove", as in I have to compel you to assent against your will.
I think the far better approach is through experience.
And if someone can connect to nature, there is hope for him :)Replies: @Mikel
Apologies if my latest comment came across as too combative. I am under the impression that through your laudable efforts to understand reality and find a better way of life you are cornering yourself into believing things that you would normally reject if you just applied your everyday way of obtaining information from your surroundings. I am pretty sure that you are constantly demanding proofs yourself: Is it raining or not? Have I received the sandwich that this attendant is asking me to pay for or not? Is the alarm clock ringing or is it just an illusion of my mind? In a very deep sense it seems to be true that none of these questions that we ask ourselves to function in our daily lives can be rigorously proven but the wise thing to do is accept our senses and reasoning abilities to answer them and carry on with our lives. Likewise with what one chooses to believe about extraordinary claims that people make, I think.
The Germans made all their own ocmponents and machine tools.
I have just about heard of Rhys Davies due to a Welsh literary view I subscribe to, Planet. I have never read him. I suppose I must now.Replies: @Yevardian, @utu
Paul Theroux (not such a fan of his fiction, but his acerbic travel writing is great) wrote about Lawrence’s Kangaroo, ‘somehow he wrote the book in a shorter time than I took to read it, because it is practically unreadable’.
I first heard of him via a book review by Theodore Dalrymple, who’s quite a talented writer himself, though he does himself a disservice with some of his associations. I also read Houellebecq and Marquis de Custine’s Letters from Russia as a teenager based on his reviews.
https://www.city-journal.org/html/welsh-chekhov-13367.html
Vlogger Perun two analyses:
The Price of War – Can Russia afford a long conflict? (April 14, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
Ukraine vs Russia – Who wins a war of hardware attrition? (Apr 22, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
"Who is winning?" - Mythbusting the Ukraine-Russia war (Apr 8, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=MH0xWWSJL00Replies: @Dmitry
Since faking Tweets is so easy and obvious, I think we should assume that it's being done unless there's strong evidence to the contrary. We already know that some of the utterly ridiculous fake-Tweets about that super-pilot and the martyred island garrison went viral. The problem with social media-oriented people is that they tend to believe anything they see in such Tweet.
Meanwhile, I just can't see any obvious reason why American military experts like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Larry Johnson would be lying. Suppose you're correct and within a few weeks it's clear that the Russian army has been defeated, with the loss of 20,000 casualties and half their modern vehicles. Then they'll all look totally ridiculous and no one will ever trust their opinions on military matters again. So maybe they're mistaken, but I think they're being honest.
During the Iraq War, all the media people who were correct were purged and stayed purged even after they were proven correct. Meanwhile, virtually none of the MSM people who were wrong had their careers negatively impacted. I think that historical tilt explains a lot of the current MSM tilt.Replies: @Thrax, @Mr. Hack, @Mikel
Ritter was clearly mistaken when he predicted a quick Russian victory but he doesn’t seem to have lost your trust. In fact, many people here (no need to name names) were wrong predicting that Russia wouldn’t invade just a couple of months ago but now feel confident again to be able to discern where the correct information can be found.
If instead of listening only to those three American observers (that I also find credible as far as it goes), you spent a little time going through the Telegram channels of some Russians covering the war and actually doing the fighting in Donbass (eg https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com), you would discover that the Russians are struggling to get drones to correct their artillery strikes while the Ukrainians have them at the platoon level, that they are slowly starting to receive them through donations organized by volunteers who buy cheap Chinese Mavic 2 and 3 civilian drones, that some of these deliveries have been stopped by Russian Customs officials at the border with Donbass because they continue operating in their usual bureaucratic way, that the few drones they initially received from military sources were inoperable due to depleted batteries, etc. Then perhaps the Russian performance, slow progress and changes of strategy in this war would start to make more sense to you as well.
By contrast, I can much better evaluate the credibility of Americans like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, as well as the closely-related views of Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen.
The sense I get is that a lot of commenters on this thread are "war buffs," given all the Tweets they've posted over the weeks showing tanks blowing up and that sort of thing. But I'm not particularly interested in that sort of anecdotal evidence. And it's perfectly possible that the Ukrainians have considerable superiority in drones. I'm just not sure that any of that makes any major strategic difference in the outcome.
I'm still persuaded by the overall analysis of those military experts, so if they're wrong, then I'm wrong.Replies: @Mikel, @Emil Nikola Richard
The old Anglo-Starvation-Blockade strategy. It’s a keeper.
Many Westerners considered Putin a “realist” pre-invasion; they predicted the buildup was just a bluff and since then have tried to rationalize it. Those who were considered “alarmists” here and Eastern Europeans realized he was fit the mold of an unreconstructed neo-Soviet revanchist whose rise had been predicted as soon as the USSR fell. Trump and many eastern Europeans predicted the Nordstream II pipeline would give him carte blanche for even more aggression.
I used to lurk here and I have to commend you and AP for remaining so patient with gaslighting Westerners even as your people kinsmen fight for their very existence. ~75% of Ukrainian commentators I’ve seen hate Russia on a biological level now; I can’t blame them for that, but I tell them that the Putins of the future want to keep ethnic, religious, etc. hatreds strong so that these can be exploited for personal gain.
Incredible that even the most sympathetic Westerners can still believe that Putin cares about the people he invades. He’s trying to conscript all able-bodied men in occupied territory now after deporting thousands of others to GULAG (both war crimes): these are the same people that his minions have been bombing, raping , killing for 8 weeks. Humans are fodder to him.
https://khpg.org/en/1608810165
No worries I wasn’t offended, and I appreciate honest plain speaking 🙂
We shouldn’t simply believe any extraordinary claim anyone makes.
But we also shouldn’t dismiss things that can’t be scientifically measured or reliably reproduced under laboratory conditions.
We now know that every system of logic and science depends on axioms it cannot prove.
I said I can easily imagine a supernatural being that refuses to let itself be investigated scientifically – you said you found this convoluted and un-compelling 🙂
That is certainly your right, but you have simply chosen to adopt an unproven axiom upon which to build your belief system – that all of reality is such that it can be compelled to submit to scientific research. And that only what can be reliably reproduced has value – that only power that is certain has value.
Fact is we can’t live without accepting things we can’t prove. Doesn’t being an adult mean facing this and stop telling ourselves fairy tales about certainty and proof?
In a way our culture is stuck in adolescence.
It’s time for our culture to accept that it is based on unproven and unprovable metaphysical assumptions – and to take responsibility for our metaphysical assumptions.
"You guys can't prove your assumptions, therefore you have to abandon them. I can't prove mine either, but mine don't need to be proven, and should just be accepted because... malaise/left-brain/I say so."
Sorry, that won't fly.
Metaphysician, heal thyself.
(Yes, I know I'm being snide. But that's being true to myself - and isn't that what you counsel? :) Despite the apparent circles we're going around, I think we're actually getting somewhere. I will reply more fully a bit later. And in case you're wondering, I haven't given up on McGilchrist. Still slogging through it. There is a lot there to digest.)Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
I wouldn’t be surprised it there turns out to be some sort of problem, where the definition of key terms in itself rules out the possibility of anything paranormal ever being allowed to count as part of reality; e.g.
Taking paranormal to mean ‘outside of what is natural’;
Where does our knowledge of the content of the category nature come from? Sceptics may be likely to say sense experience, especially events known via sense experience that are repeatable and predictable. Something like this is going to be describable in quantifiable terms, therefore by physics, therefore once it is experimentally verified it becomes part of nature, a natural thing, not a paranormal thing.
Because here a category like nature is open ended, and what is in it is dependent on what our experience is, (say with appropriate filters added, testability, public replicability etc.) its content can be indefinitely expanded and modified as new experiences arise. This has happened fairly frequently in the past.
Peculiar or rare events which happen (or which are observed) infrequently, maybe on a single occasion, will be invisible in this approach to nature.
Imo this causes problems with brute facts (brute fact is a contingent entity or event which has no cause and no explanation, something different to not knowing what the cause or explanation is, brute facts just don’t have one), empiricist sceptics often will want to accept the possibility of these things as part of reality, but then will have to accept that no one can ever know that things like this exist or happen.
I have had experiences which would be considered paranormal, but I claim no special powers or control in that regard. Trying to prove it is like trying to prove that your little brother stuck his tongue out at you first before you smacked him. The experiences that I've had have been quite random and impossible to predict, even more so than trying to predict normal human behavior.
I'm always careful to run through all other possible explanations when something paranormal does happen. I'm not interested in believing in BS and I'd rater have the inconvenient truth rather than the a lie which coincides with my preconceptions. There are just too many instances which cannot be explained away in any satisfactory way.
____
Here is my full quote that you truncated: And here is your quote of "legal theory" trying to justify cutting off water to civilians, which directly ties to the part of my post that you truncated. You again affirm that your position is (functionally), "civilians in Crimea deserved to be deprived of water". You then cite laws that say that cutting off the water is permissible.
Even if it is at some level "legal", is it "morally right"?
Even if you believe it is "legal" and "moral", you must grasp why Russia takes it as a provocation. This is the cycle of escalation.
____
I am not sure how to deal with the fact that almost every soldier on all sides has a smartphone. There are too many potential positive uses for them to be confiscated. A pre loaded map and even degraded GPS can help groups of cut off soldiers regroup to an emergency rally point. That by itself is invaluable to minimize losses and maintain fighting cohesion.
However, those phones allowed troops to see inflammatory material, such as alleged mutilation of POW's. Individual soldiers (and possibly civilians) on both sides have breached national command and control and committed "war crimes". Neither side has entirely clean hands.
____
I genuinely believe both Christian Orthodox "sides" were intentionally fed misleading and outright false information by anti-Christian operatives. I am sorry that Zelensky and his administration made mistakes. It is unfortunate that Putin and his administration made mistakes.
I understand that you are outraged that the invasion started. However, now that it has, there is no way to alter history so that event never happened. I instead pose a question that has a practical answer.
What is the best thing that can happen in the short term?
I would suggest an armistice that freeze both sides in place, moves 18 year old with rifles out of shooting range of each other, and takes another attempt at coming to some accommodation both side can live with.
This is admittedly imperfect, but all of the other options are worse.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
I never affirmed a position that “civilians in Crimea deserved to be deprived of water” nor did I cite any laws that say “cutting off the water is permissible”, although I think that there probably are laws that do indicate something to that effect. You seem to have a very nasty of habit of ascribing either written ideas or thoughts to persons that aren’t precise and don’t really define their positions. Where you got the idea that I think that people “deserve” to go without water is beyond me? Obviously, people in Crimea aren’t going without water, because (for the umpteenth time) nobody there has died of thirst, nor has gone hungry because of unirrigated crops. It’s just that getting water is more difficult for Crimeans. Well, what did the kremlins think when they took over the Crimea at the end of a gun?
____I do not know whether you are intentionally lying or mentally ill. Either way, you lack the capacity for rational discourse. Thus, there is no point in going any further.PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
Bukwheat remains an option.
It worked in the Napoleonic Wars, the American Civil War, and both World Wars.
The anti-Russian side totally dominates media/propaganda, and from the very beginning they've been producing the most utterly ridiculous and dishonest propaganda that was widely reported and believed by people on social media in the West.
It's also pretty clear that the Ukrainians have committed the most totally horrific war-crimes but then managed to get the media to pretend it was the Russians, such as the Bucha massacre and the missile hitting the railway station. Compared to that, faking a few photos or Tweets of destroyed Russian tanks is utterly trivial.
You seem like a young, extremely gullible person who spends all his time on social media and tends to believe whatever he sees. If you were living in America, you'd probably believe that blacks like George Floyd were saintly victims of white police-killers and that people had 17 different genders.
Since I don't have great military expertise and I don't waste my time watching war-porn on social media, my interpretation of the state of the conflict is primarily derived from the extensive public presentations of people like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, who do have that expertise and don't seem like they would have any particular reason to lie or distort. Maybe they're all totally wrong, but I'd trust them over random Tweets showing destroyed Russian vehicles.Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
You asked for opinion, but then I don’t give you the answer you wanted to hear, so you reply that the respondent is “extremely gullible”, ” George Floyd supporter”, “opponent of American police brutality” (aide from “gullible”, I accept the rest as a complement).
I can write “Yes these photos and videos of destroyed videos, must be Ukrainian fakes. The equipment is not lost”.
However, videos of military buildup two months ago from social media, were accurate indicators of what later happened. The same method of looking a primary source from social media, has earlier predicted many features of the invasion.
In January and February, we were seeing videos of Rosgvardiya (which had seemed strange at the time) as part of the buildup on the border. We later saw vehicles of those units destroyed in Ukraine. We saw videos of Chechen units in the military buildup in Crimea. We later discover Chechen units are fighting.
So this source gains some confidence, as it had been predictive during the buildup before war, of what had later happened.
As for videos and photos of destroyed equipment, it’s possible they are mostly fakes. But these videos are often mutually consistent. We sometimes see equipment in the videos, after they are destroyed, that was earlier in social media videos of the military buildup in Russia.
You can also test the theory, if we believe much of the videos and photos would be fake, then in the future weeks we should not see increase ratio of more old equipment introduced, as there would be thousands of the newer tanks and armor vehicles still available except in the Adobe photoshop studio. So, in the next months, if war unfortunately continues, whether there will be introduction of old equipment will be a way to check this.
If there were thousands of amateur videos of Battle of Waterloo or Punic Wars, then this would be one of the the primary sources used by historians, and it would be revelatory for providing information of the conflict.
There is weakness in terms of the selection of the material and short, edited clips. It’s possible Carthaginians could be producing fake clips. One side might be releasing videos, while another side keeps them secret, which could create unbalanced impressions. Amateur observers could be misinterpreting the evidence in all kinds of ways. But this is like any primary sources.
For the Russian side, Oryx list 531 main battle tanks lost (captured, damaged or destroyed). If we argue this is not significantly fake, then there would be around 2000-2500 modernized tanks, then it would be probably between 1/4 and 1/5 of loss of the “elite active tanks”.
This wouldn’t mean the war is not possible to continue from the Russian army, as there are thousands of reserve tanks additionally to active tanks. But it would imply that the quality of the tanks will fall with future months of fighting, as these reserve tanks are old models, without the same advanced optics, fire-control, etc, as the active modernized tanks.
After the war, the land army would be lacking modernized equipment, how much depending on how many weeks this fighting will continue. How fast the speed of the re-armament, would depend to significant extent on whether they will buy equipment from China.
Seriously?
Obviously American police have serious problems, but come on, in that isolated instance at least, that cop acted with quite admirable restraint. If you want to talk about truly disgusting American police behaviour look at the murder or Daniel Carver.. but notice the whole country didn't start rioting and looting store in that instance.I thought Our Benevolent Overlord was overly harsh, but perhaps you are rather very easily taken in. Perhaps I should have suspected given you share Karlin's enthusiasm for 'neo-liberal economics' and financial wizards like Milton Friedman and Paul Craig Roberts. Since in the vast majority cases where have no idea where or where they're filmed, who uploaded them, if or how they've been tampered with, I'd put very little stock at all in that material. Perhaps an aggregate of several hundred, with expert analysis, might give something, but for amateurs look you or me, I think its rather a waste of time, not to mention unpleasant viewing. The Barca family survived to found a propaganda firm?Replies: @Dmitry
I don't pay any attention to Russian propaganda, partly because I don't understand Russian, and I'm sure it's probably dishonest. But based upon many, many years of experience, I'm absolutely sure that Western propaganda is totally dishonest about almost everything and can be similarly disregarded. Meanwhile, you strike me as a young (former?) Russian fellow who foolishly tends to generally believe Western propaganda. I think you recently described yourself as a "neoliberal."
Ritter, Macgregor, and Johnson all seem to think that the command and control of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed, preventing it from operating as a cohesive military force. One reasonable point they made is that if the Ukrainian army were actually functional, it probably would have mounted at least some significant counter-attacks or used artillery strikes to relieve the pressure on Mariupol or the Donbas, but nothing like that has happened.
So while you can probably find honest videos of independent Ukrainian squads ambushing a Russian tank or a convoy, there probably aren't any videos showing battalion- or regimental-level Ukrainian attacks because their battalions and regiments no longer exist. At least that's what those credible military experts seem to be claiming.Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh
Ritter is a little over the top in some statements though. Dies seem to be currying favor for future gigs with Moscow. Not saying he’s a spy btw but he knows he’s on the outs with US sponsorship.Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Dmitry
Yes I think that sounds like a plausible theory about Oryx, considering that they write a book called “The armed forces of North Korea”. https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/the-armed-forces-of-north-korea-on-the-path-of-songun.php
“Illustrated by over 65 detailed color artworks and various maps put together through exhaustive research and analysis, as well as around 450 unique images, many of which have never before been seen by the general public. Through scrutiny of satellite footage, the observation of North Korean propaganda outlets and by carefully examining information from the United States Department of Defense”
I’m not sure how any normal people, would write this kind of book. It seems like something you would write, if it was related to your professional background.
But it doesn’t explain why they have a pro-Turkey bias.
The Price of War - Can Russia afford a long conflict? (April 14, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
Ukraine vs Russia - Who wins a war of hardware attrition? (Apr 22, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08Replies: @utu
This guy Perun is really very good. I strongly recommend him to everybody including the Putinheads.
“Who is winning?” – Mythbusting the Ukraine-Russia war (Apr 8, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=MH0xWWSJL00
Yes, it's a risk because whoever wants to can take advantage of these unfortunate circumstances, however, it's not your typical Ukrainian refugee (who are women and children, at least a third or more (!!!) of them are children, and it looks like a huge percentage of Ukrainian children are now abroad which is very sad). I saw a report about a group of particularly vulnerable refugees that had traveled if I'm not mistaken from Sumy to Latvia, they were a group of handicapped people who were received by the local Samaritans organization. There was one person who was so vulnerable that they couldn't even sit up -- I can't even describe how I felt for those who have started this war when I saw that, imagining what this person had to go through being forced to take such a journey.
It might be that some will go back, as soon as they can, it must be difficult for them to stay away from their spouses, especially in these circumstances. So this is not a typical "open borders" situation where people travel to the West to take advantage. Yes, thankfully (even though the airport was bombed). I'm hoping the Russians won't be able to reach Dnipro, the distance from their troops in the north and the south is 700km, it wouldn't be easy to close that distance and occupy all that area with the current concentration of the troops. I'm sure Dnipro is a fortress by now (Yarosh is there). It's like WW2.. but Kharkiv changed hands back then several times... unthinkable tragedy. Mariupol is no more. Only an idea in our minds. It was a beautiful city, too. Beyond heartbreaking... There could be an irrational element to this. There is a Russophone identity there that is different from the Moscovite one. Have you heard of the Belarusian band Brutto? They wrote a song called Воины света (Warriors of Light) that became the anthem for Maidan (and was also sung during the Belarusian protests). Became a very popular song for the Belarusian and Ukrainian youth. To me, this song encapsulates this new Ukrainian Russophone identity or maybe even a wider non Moscovite Russophone identity. It is triumphalist, masculine, a bit playful, very freedom-loving. But contrarian to Moscow. It seems that Moscow noticed this, after one of their plunder or killing episodes the Russian troops wrote mockingly Воины света on somebody's wall before they left. So it's clear they're very resentful of that identity, and maybe hate it even more than the one in Lviv. The Lviv one is more distant, but this one is very close.
https://song-story.ru/voiny-sveta-lyapis/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYsN0uif-_wReplies: @Dmitry
Sure Ukraine is significantly more religious than slavic regions of Russia (one of the most secular cultures imaginable of the world), but Ukraine will be more secular than many places of EU, this is religious places like Poland, Romania, Mediterranean.
Well in wars, aren’t even mafia and criminals, often becoming localist patriots for this time? At least, this is the folk image of them. Although mafia helped the US invasion of Sicily in 1943 in response to Mussolini’s repressions, on the other hand, the New York mafia were supporting the US military until the end of war.
But after war, Ukraine will join the EU. If I was EU, this would be the issue with the open borders (not some worry about politics, where Ukrainian immigrants will assimilate), as Ukraine has high levels of organized crime, at least compared to Western European societies. Its murder rate is also very high for Western EU levels.
Relating Russian identity to Moscow, always seems bizarre, as most of the country hate Moscow. And Moscow is center of multinational liberals. But sure, I understand your point, and this is the same whenever you used to see Russian speakers in foreign countries. All postsoviet peoples should be viewing each other as one people, irrelevant to the politics.
But you know this war is just surreal, from anyone not locked into dynamics of recent years’ propaganda, but who can actually believe propaganda of 8 years ago or 10 years ago. 8 years ago, the problem in Ukraine of the nationalist government in Kiev, is because they are repressing the civilian population in Kharkov and Mariupol. And 10 years ago, Ukrainians themselves were presented in the propaganda culture as a strong-hearted, folklorical culture, who are supposed to give you 12 points in Eurovision.
Btw, the Ukrainians are running high quality propaganda material on some of their main channels, including prayer videos. I really like this one (but there are other, more peaceful ones).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RevMOGzxl8k Of course, this is a risk. And it is being decided right now where this border will be. Some kind of a reformatting of the state will be required. I'm also worried about who can trickle in from Donbas, although this may be irrational as the guys in Donbas probably couldn't care less about Europe.
Ideally, they should start tackling organized crime together with the EU before they join.
As to the politics side, Ukraine is large enough to have influence on wider European politics. It almost seems that Ukraine could receive some kind of an "honorary membership". We'll see what the Western European countries think about this magnificent idea. :)
What's interesting is that there is a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 42). But in reality, Ukraine is now like Israel and should become a fortress of its own (the EU cannot protect it) but in that case it may not be able to abide by some of the stricter EU norms. It is exactly the spirit of freedom that allows Ukraine to fight so hard, and the EU norms may stifle that spirit. Then again if the majority of them wish to be in the EU, it should be heard. And if it can be pulled off. There is a lot to be weighed here. I didn't mean the city, I will most likely be modifying my language to the "Rus vs Moscovite" distinction, although I'm not sure yet (it doesn't yet seem fully natural and matching with my outlook). Well, there's that side, but it seems there is a distinct new identity that appeared in East Ukraine. It must have been building up already before 2014. This was somewhat bigoted (even if you believe it's in good spirit). I've seen it over and over in Russian movies -- the Ukrainian is so often portrayed as the naive, low IQ country bumpkin (from the hutor). As a romnat, I enjoy folklore a lot, but these stereotypes were meant to portray them as backward. When in fact they're very intelligent, especially in Kyiv, and quite modern. I think that not giving them agency is part of the mistaken perception of "they will not fight back", of underestimating their backbone.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Philip Owen, @Dmitry
That’s a couple of phd war studies chaps. KCL or and Shell Oil risk assessment tier nerdism.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1170716025865801734
And their Japanese blog, where they promote Turkish defense industry?
https://spioenkopjp.blogspot.com/2020/12/blog-post.htmlReplies: @Wokechoke
Kingsnorth is an Englishman who recently bought land on Ireland, and is struck by the special quality of the spirituality there, the shrines and caves and holy mountains and saints that seem still so deeply a part of the land and cultural fabric there.
Kingsnorth's "project" so to speak might be described as the "rewilding" of Christianity - to reconnect it to wilderness and nature.
It's interesting, but if you look at Jesus' sayings they promote a way of life that is simple, natural, and very free of the complexities of urban life - and he spent most of his life in rural areas or wilderness. Yet the heavily urbanized nature of late antiquity made Christianity acquire an overly urban cast, only intermittently acknowledging it's inherent connection to natural settings on the Desert Father's, monasteries, and hermits and recluses - at least in the West.
Anyways, here you go - it's a great piece.
https://paulkingsnorth.substack.com/p/splendour-of-fire-speed-of-lightning?s=rReplies: @songbird
I can think of some great historical and mythical tableaus, which I believe speak to this connection of faith to wilderness.
In one (historical), there were services at a mass rock, when the priest-hunters showed up. Immediately, the priest dived into a swiftly-moving, nearby river, and swam across, while I believe the crowd cheered him.
In another, a pieta was taken from a church (I believe one of my ancestors, though he may have been away) before the approach of Cromwell’s army, which stabled their horses in the church. In order to protect it, the pieta was buried in a bog. It is said that some 50-70 years later, the last man who was living, who knew where it was buried, was carried to the spot, on his deathbed, and pointed it out.
And, of course, it was common for fishermen to tie a crucifix and a bottle of holy water inside a curragh. I think the story of St. Brendan’s voyages hits upon the inherent spirituality of the sea.
Dig a Thulean Tunnel to Azovstal. Hollow Earth Now!
@Yellowface Anon
Of course, I am bringing it up for laughs. But I honestly do think it is pretty freaky. Cashless society (and we seem to be moving there) would definitely be one with a lot of levers of power being controlled by central authority.
And it seems like they may be poised to crackdown on free speech, even more, in the near future.
Anglo Starvaxon Blockadism Now!
If instead of listening only to those three American observers (that I also find credible as far as it goes), you spent a little time going through the Telegram channels of some Russians covering the war and actually doing the fighting in Donbass (eg https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com), you would discover that the Russians are struggling to get drones to correct their artillery strikes while the Ukrainians have them at the platoon level, that they are slowly starting to receive them through donations organized by volunteers who buy cheap Chinese Mavic 2 and 3 civilian drones, that some of these deliveries have been stopped by Russian Customs officials at the border with Donbass because they continue operating in their usual bureaucratic way, that the few drones they initially received from military sources were inoperable due to depleted batteries, etc. Then perhaps the Russian performance, slow progress and changes of strategy in this war would start to make more sense to you as well.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Thulean Friend
The problem is I don’t use Telegram and I don’t read Russian, so I’d have a very difficult time evaluating the credibility of unknown Russian Telegram channels.
By contrast, I can much better evaluate the credibility of Americans like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, as well as the closely-related views of Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen.
The sense I get is that a lot of commenters on this thread are “war buffs,” given all the Tweets they’ve posted over the weeks showing tanks blowing up and that sort of thing. But I’m not particularly interested in that sort of anecdotal evidence. And it’s perfectly possible that the Ukrainians have considerable superiority in drones. I’m just not sure that any of that makes any major strategic difference in the outcome.
I’m still persuaded by the overall analysis of those military experts, so if they’re wrong, then I’m wrong.
In any case, one doesn't need to download the Telegram program to preview its channels, where everything but some multimedia content is available on a simple browser. Given Twitter's increasing censorship and shortcomings, I expect a big increase in the popularity of Telegram.
Also, Chrome provides a very good translation service of Russian to English, which I need to use myself, and the drone problems mentioned by Russians on the battlefield was meant to be just one example of the problems that the Russians are having in this campaign.
Another one increasingly mentioned in those channels is the lack of initiative to destroy bridges and railways to prevent Western weapons from quickly reaching the current frontlines, as is now happening. They are even publishing exact coordinates of the targets in the hope that someone will pass them on to the generals.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/04/joseph-mercola/human-microchip-implants-and-the-internet-of-bodies/Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Alarmist articles like this says microchipping leads to mind control (perhaps with neural integration), but so far it is still data storage you can already do with external devices. Still a very dystopian idea even when most of them consent to it.
I’d argue that this just goes to show how people place too much importance on language, a lesson which the West may now be learning to its peril. Perhaps, it is still surprising, if you consider the small genetic distance, but I don’t think it really is, if you consider the specific history.
IMO, the English did a bad job of co-opting native elites. It is not that they didn’t try at all, but their efforts were often concomitant with extremely alienating things, such as the Statutes of Kilkenny, which in one case, saw a Norman earl alienate his native Irish wife and remarry to a non-native. Then there were the plantations which must have upset the most loyal loyal retainers, when they happened in their neighborhood. Not to mention the penal laws.
From 1750-1870, only 3% of the land was owned by Catholics. Probably mostly Normans.
Many of the landlords were absentee, and lived on their rents in London. Many of the garrison troops were foreign. I imagine murders of civilians create hard feelings that last a few generations, and there were regular outbreaks of these (I’m sure at least partly retaliatory), along with, to a certain degree, wars. There were several shocking murders not much more than 100 years ago, in the War of Independence. For example, this one:
https://www.irishcentral.com/news/reprisals-black-and-tan-murder
From 1171 down to the Reformation, in 1549, there were twenty-three archbishops of Dublin. Not a single one was native Irish. And immediately afterward, the same bounty for killing wolves was paid to those who killed priests, so it was a dangerous honor to which to be appointed. (at least Catholic Archbishops of Dublin)
I think Thulean is secretly salivating over all these artillery strikes, thinking that there will come wider streets with segregated bicycle paths. (kidding)
Of course, I am bringing it up for laughs. But I honestly do think it is pretty freaky. Cashless society (and we seem to be moving there) would definitely be one with a lot of levers of power being controlled by central authority.
And it seems like they may be poised to crackdown on free speech, even more, in the near future.
I did send in the application, and I will will keep everyone up to date on what transpires. My guess is nothing will come of it. I doubt that my dowsing will really fall under the definition of the “paranormal” that they are seeking.
As I explained in my previous comment, I don’t even think I would really classify my dowsing as particularly “paranormal” or spiritual. It’s not even that much of a fringy thing in all honesty.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/21/565746002/u-k-water-companies-sometimes-use-dowsing-rods-to-find-pipes
The above story does state that there is no scientific proof that the dowsing works, but this flies in the face of my actual experience for what it’s worth.
The question of scientific certainty is an interesting one, which I’ll illustrate with a personal story. A couple years ago I herniated a disk in my lower back which gave me crippling sciatica. I was barely able to stand upright for more than few hours, couple lift literally nothing over a few pounds and was riddled with secondary muscle issues from my bodies attempts to compensate. I had tried different physical therapists and was finally seeing a good one, but progress was glacial.
Someone mentioned an inversion table as an option. I looked up the medical evidence and all official sources claimed that there was no evidence that they did much of anything, though they might help in some cases. The inversion table was relegated by the medical literature to barely above quackery.
However, there are a ton of reviews on Amazon and other places in which people claim it was a literally life saving device. In the end I picked one up, and found that it indeed completely changed my life. Within about two days my sciatic pain had decreased by 75% and the combination of the table and the good physical therapist saw me on a fast track to complete recovery.
Today, I am able to lift and work like I ever did (though I’m smarter in avoiding idiotic abuse of my body) and I hop on the table periodically as needed if I feel I’m getting bent out of shape. For me the inversion table really was life changing. I’ve recommended trying it to numerous people I’ve known who have had back issues, with a good success rate.
The point of this rambling boring story? If I had followed the dictates of what the “science” had established as reliable I might have continued to reject the inversion table out of hand. My personal experience as well as my observation of others I know has flown directly in the face of the medical research. So I take such notions of iron clad certainty with a grain of salt. I’m skeptical of them because they are often incomplete, slanted, or just lacking in interested investigative parties.
The conditions of that test were strict but not unreasonable for someone offering that kind of money. As I understand it, they can be negotiated between the parties beforehand according to what the claimant feels capable of doing.Replies: @Barbarossa
"Who is winning?" - Mythbusting the Ukraine-Russia war (Apr 8, 2022)
youtube.com/watch?v=MH0xWWSJL00Replies: @Dmitry
On YouTube, Binkov Battlegrounds is reporting reliable information for the war (he sometimes writes the sources, it is from the defense journalists’ articles). Although he speaks so slowly, I could accept watching him only on the x2 speed.
Would Russia get the 18thc India treatment, that is fragmented peasantization?
No doubt only China can autarkically survive such a blockade with the level of technological self-sufficiency and trade links outside the West (now with Russian resources)
Putin's attempts to move Russia from oil have mostly been top down winner picking projects. The 12 National Projects, the 42 Strategic Industries, the 100 Systematically Important Companies (such lists included foreign investors) and Medvedeev's Skolkovo and Import Substitution. This is very Peter The Great in style. It results in these imported "Cathedrals in the Desert" to use a description of similar efforts in Southern Italy. Without a home grown ecology around them, they are fragile and rarely deliver the anticipated results as they struggle for profit. The industries that succeed (largely grain and oil seed production in Russia) in a economy benefitting way are those that arise via natural advantage and tax cuts. Basically, incentives rather than subsidy. (Subsidies of course, create opportunities for corruption). There is no harm in a prosperous Russia with the right shape of economy. Just now, it looks as though most foreign firms' disinvestments will be nationalized. The is about the worst outcome possible for Russia's future.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
And also time for you to admit that you are in the same boat.
“You guys can’t prove your assumptions, therefore you have to abandon them. I can’t prove mine either, but mine don’t need to be proven, and should just be accepted because… malaise/left-brain/I say so.”
Sorry, that won’t fly.
Metaphysician, heal thyself.
(Yes, I know I’m being snide. But that’s being true to myself – and isn’t that what you counsel? 🙂 Despite the apparent circles we’re going around, I think we’re actually getting somewhere. I will reply more fully a bit later. And in case you’re wondering, I haven’t given up on McGilchrist. Still slogging through it. There is a lot there to digest.)
There are great scholars who after a lifetime of due diligence do not have a library as large as McGilchrist bibliography. Perhaps this might tell you something?Replies: @Barbarossa
No, no, you don't have to give up your assumptions.
We can't actually live without some assumptions :)
You just have to hold them "lightly", not take them so seriously - recognize they are symbols of an ungraspeable reality.
There is this idea that logic and science is of a radically different order of knowledge, and more certain - but when you realize that at the heart of it lies unproven assumptions, the spell is broken :)
And suddenly, the world in all it's richness is restored to you - which we lost at the beginning of modernity in our desire to be "tough minded".
Adolescence is characterized by trying to be "tough" and "adult" - you reject your family and community and strike out alone to prove yourself etc.
Then when you get older and more mature you are able to return to family and community without feeling you need prove how "tough" you are anymore.
You're strong and independent enough to no longer be threatened by social ties etc.
So too when we are ready to grow up and no longer need to prove how "tough" we are we can accept that the quest for certainty, for total cognitive independence, was childish insecurity.
Total cognitive independence would mean no unproven assumption we must "depend" on - this is the adolescent dream. Our own minds do not depend on the universe. It can totally grasp it from the outside.
But as beings that "grow out of" this Cosmos we are radically connected to it and dependent on it - and once you mature you grasp this is no bad thing, but is to be connected to the source of life and vitality itself.
Glad you're still enjoying Mcgilchrist!
I myself have not fully finished him either - there is so much, and it is so rich and wide ranging.Replies: @Barbarossa, @silviosilver
By contrast, I can much better evaluate the credibility of Americans like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, as well as the closely-related views of Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen.
The sense I get is that a lot of commenters on this thread are "war buffs," given all the Tweets they've posted over the weeks showing tanks blowing up and that sort of thing. But I'm not particularly interested in that sort of anecdotal evidence. And it's perfectly possible that the Ukrainians have considerable superiority in drones. I'm just not sure that any of that makes any major strategic difference in the outcome.
I'm still persuaded by the overall analysis of those military experts, so if they're wrong, then I'm wrong.Replies: @Mikel, @Emil Nikola Richard
Fair enough.
In any case, one doesn’t need to download the Telegram program to preview its channels, where everything but some multimedia content is available on a simple browser. Given Twitter’s increasing censorship and shortcomings, I expect a big increase in the popularity of Telegram.
Also, Chrome provides a very good translation service of Russian to English, which I need to use myself, and the drone problems mentioned by Russians on the battlefield was meant to be just one example of the problems that the Russians are having in this campaign.
Another one increasingly mentioned in those channels is the lack of initiative to destroy bridges and railways to prevent Western weapons from quickly reaching the current frontlines, as is now happening. They are even publishing exact coordinates of the targets in the hope that someone will pass them on to the generals.
As I mentioned to Mikel, I don’t even regard the dowsing as particularly paranormal. I just know it works but am utterly in the dark as to how it works. I doubt it will be of any interest to them.
I have had experiences which would be considered paranormal, but I claim no special powers or control in that regard. Trying to prove it is like trying to prove that your little brother stuck his tongue out at you first before you smacked him. The experiences that I’ve had have been quite random and impossible to predict, even more so than trying to predict normal human behavior.
I’m always careful to run through all other possible explanations when something paranormal does happen. I’m not interested in believing in BS and I’d rater have the inconvenient truth rather than the a lie which coincides with my preconceptions. There are just too many instances which cannot be explained away in any satisfactory way.
Seriously?
Obviously American police have serious problems, but come on, in that isolated instance at least, that cop acted with quite admirable restraint. If you want to talk about truly disgusting American police behaviour look at the murder or Daniel Carver.. but notice the whole country didn’t start rioting and looting store in that instance.
I thought Our Benevolent Overlord was overly harsh, but perhaps you are rather very easily taken in. Perhaps I should have suspected given you share Karlin’s enthusiasm for ‘neo-liberal economics’ and financial wizards like Milton Friedman and Paul Craig Roberts.
Since in the vast majority cases where have no idea where or where they’re filmed, who uploaded them, if or how they’ve been tampered with, I’d put very little stock at all in that material. Perhaps an aggregate of several hundred, with expert analysis, might give something, but for amateurs look you or me, I think its rather a waste of time, not to mention unpleasant viewing.
The Barca family survived to found a propaganda firm?
They used to monitor the Middle East and like writing Arabic.
And their Japanese blog, where they promote Turkish defense industry?
https://spioenkopjp.blogspot.com/2020/12/blog-post.html
There was never any dispute that a large Russian army was massing on Ukraine’s border. The issue was one of interpretation—were the Russians likely to invade?—something else entirely.
The pro-Ukrainian side is so heavily focused upon media and propaganda, I find it difficult to believe that they wouldn’t be producing fake Tweets of destroyed Russian equipment so the question is what percentage is fake. 20%? 50%? 85%? I don’t have a clue and I doubt anyone else does either. Producing fake Tweets is a lot safer and easier than destroying real Russian tanks. What percentage of the allegedly destroyed tanks show serial numbers that can be confirmed were part of the Russian invasion force?
I don’t pay any attention to Russian propaganda, partly because I don’t understand Russian, and I’m sure it’s probably dishonest. But based upon many, many years of experience, I’m absolutely sure that Western propaganda is totally dishonest about almost everything and can be similarly disregarded. Meanwhile, you strike me as a young (former?) Russian fellow who foolishly tends to generally believe Western propaganda. I think you recently described yourself as a “neoliberal.”
Ritter, Macgregor, and Johnson all seem to think that the command and control of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed, preventing it from operating as a cohesive military force. One reasonable point they made is that if the Ukrainian army were actually functional, it probably would have mounted at least some significant counter-attacks or used artillery strikes to relieve the pressure on Mariupol or the Donbas, but nothing like that has happened.
So while you can probably find honest videos of independent Ukrainian squads ambushing a Russian tank or a convoy, there probably aren’t any videos showing battalion- or regimental-level Ukrainian attacks because their battalions and regiments no longer exist. At least that’s what those credible military experts seem to be claiming.
As I explained in my previous comment, I don't even think I would really classify my dowsing as particularly "paranormal" or spiritual. It's not even that much of a fringy thing in all honesty.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/21/565746002/u-k-water-companies-sometimes-use-dowsing-rods-to-find-pipes
The above story does state that there is no scientific proof that the dowsing works, but this flies in the face of my actual experience for what it's worth.
The question of scientific certainty is an interesting one, which I'll illustrate with a personal story. A couple years ago I herniated a disk in my lower back which gave me crippling sciatica. I was barely able to stand upright for more than few hours, couple lift literally nothing over a few pounds and was riddled with secondary muscle issues from my bodies attempts to compensate. I had tried different physical therapists and was finally seeing a good one, but progress was glacial.
Someone mentioned an inversion table as an option. I looked up the medical evidence and all official sources claimed that there was no evidence that they did much of anything, though they might help in some cases. The inversion table was relegated by the medical literature to barely above quackery.
However, there are a ton of reviews on Amazon and other places in which people claim it was a literally life saving device. In the end I picked one up, and found that it indeed completely changed my life. Within about two days my sciatic pain had decreased by 75% and the combination of the table and the good physical therapist saw me on a fast track to complete recovery.
Today, I am able to lift and work like I ever did (though I'm smarter in avoiding idiotic abuse of my body) and I hop on the table periodically as needed if I feel I'm getting bent out of shape. For me the inversion table really was life changing. I've recommended trying it to numerous people I've known who have had back issues, with a good success rate.
The point of this rambling boring story? If I had followed the dictates of what the "science" had established as reliable I might have continued to reject the inversion table out of hand. My personal experience as well as my observation of others I know has flown directly in the face of the medical research. So I take such notions of iron clad certainty with a grain of salt. I'm skeptical of them because they are often incomplete, slanted, or just lacking in interested investigative parties.Replies: @Mikel, @Mikel
Looking forward to your updates.
Seriously?
Obviously American police have serious problems, but come on, in that isolated instance at least, that cop acted with quite admirable restraint. If you want to talk about truly disgusting American police behaviour look at the murder or Daniel Carver.. but notice the whole country didn't start rioting and looting store in that instance.I thought Our Benevolent Overlord was overly harsh, but perhaps you are rather very easily taken in. Perhaps I should have suspected given you share Karlin's enthusiasm for 'neo-liberal economics' and financial wizards like Milton Friedman and Paul Craig Roberts. Since in the vast majority cases where have no idea where or where they're filmed, who uploaded them, if or how they've been tampered with, I'd put very little stock at all in that material. Perhaps an aggregate of several hundred, with expert analysis, might give something, but for amateurs look you or me, I think its rather a waste of time, not to mention unpleasant viewing. The Barca family survived to found a propaganda firm?Replies: @Dmitry
Of course, police brutality, is one of the more unpleasant things about America, as well as various warcrimes in its history, lack of public investment, high inequality, etc (you can add to the list subjectively, as I would add things like bear hunting, which are not too unpopular here).
Which is said from a position of being a fan of America, with positive impressions from visiting there.
I’m not sure about this desire of people here to connect me to him. I appreciated the way he moderates the forum very much, before he lost the value of free-speech this year. I didn’t so often write “I agree with you” when he wrote the posts, and where I did it was probably about the more moderate proportion of comments, and hopefully only those parts of them. Where he starts writing about his support for atomic bombing of Japan, I was the only person in the forum explaining the problem of those comments, if I recall.
You can infer a lot from video of the actual war, as it is primary source accessible to the public. This is including simple things for us like e.g. what equipment is destroyed, whether a missile can destroy a tank (rather than reading the manufacturer’s claims that it can, or watching documentaries about how powerful the armor of these tanks are in Russian television for years).
If you saw hundreds of those videos, then (unless they are fake video, which is another assumption) there must be hundreds of those incidents. This is just logic.
As amateurs without military knowledge, I wouldn’t say we can infer about effectiveness of the military tactics, etc. But if you follow the military professionals, they are using the videos for their inferences. So it is the primary source available that professionals are using.
This is also how the maps are being drawn. People look at the videos and geolocate, to draw those maps.
As I said before, if there were videos available for generals in the Second World War, they would be studying those.
Btw you can see how much information simple nerds with OCD, seem able to extract https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1516561231754186756
We would be quickly overrun, and would need to flee to the continents and islands that have no bears.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
Is there any solid evidence that the Ukrainians still have a significant and functioning fixed-wing air force? Is there any solid evidence that they have substantial numbers of surviving tanks that are fueled and operational? I think the pro-Russian claims are that nearly everything on the Ukrainian side has been destroyed, along with lots of the airfields and the fuel supplies.
I don't doubt that the Ukrainians troops have lots of ATGMs and are able to ambush Russian armor, and I also don't doubt that they have functioning air defenses, which prevent the Russians from being too aggressive in the air. But if they've lost nearly all their air force and operational armored units, it's difficult to see how they can survive.
I think in one of his interviews Macgregor indicated that the Ukrainians have been very cagey in the videos they release, suggesting that's because they're trying to hide the fact that their army no longer exists as an operational military force. Maybe I misunderstood him.
So instead of videos showing a single Russian tank getting blown up, I'm curious whether there are any videos showing sizable Ukrainian tank formations attacking a Russian position, or Ukrainian fighters or bombers doing the same. If not, maybe it's because they've nearly all been destroyed just like the pro-Russian side claims.Replies: @AP, @Dmitry
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1170716025865801734
And their Japanese blog, where they promote Turkish defense industry?
https://spioenkopjp.blogspot.com/2020/12/blog-post.htmlReplies: @Wokechoke
Shell Oil
I don't pay any attention to Russian propaganda, partly because I don't understand Russian, and I'm sure it's probably dishonest. But based upon many, many years of experience, I'm absolutely sure that Western propaganda is totally dishonest about almost everything and can be similarly disregarded. Meanwhile, you strike me as a young (former?) Russian fellow who foolishly tends to generally believe Western propaganda. I think you recently described yourself as a "neoliberal."
Ritter, Macgregor, and Johnson all seem to think that the command and control of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed, preventing it from operating as a cohesive military force. One reasonable point they made is that if the Ukrainian army were actually functional, it probably would have mounted at least some significant counter-attacks or used artillery strikes to relieve the pressure on Mariupol or the Donbas, but nothing like that has happened.
So while you can probably find honest videos of independent Ukrainian squads ambushing a Russian tank or a convoy, there probably aren't any videos showing battalion- or regimental-level Ukrainian attacks because their battalions and regiments no longer exist. At least that's what those credible military experts seem to be claiming.Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh
I didn’t argue with those people. You said they are military experts, so that automatically means they would know a lot more about the field, which I don’t know anything much of. Please listen to them. If you want informed knowledge, then that’s people you should spend time reading.
My disagreement with your claim, is that believing Oryx, is sign of “extreme gullibility”. I’ve been looking at Oryx for some years and I can notice they try to be accurate, match from clips from different videos and photos to try to avoid double counting.
Oryx itself is quite mysterious. Is it related to Turkey or Dutch military? Etc. I don’t know. But their main product seems to be ok from my consumption of it. I’m just giving them a positive review for that part of their blog.
Is it possible Ukraine is faking videos? Yes, that could be. Ukraine could have prepared videos years before. That would be a very Machiavellian strategy. Although with their (often very funny) soldiers’ dialogue, use of Russian equipment, and uploading from different angles, this was not my general opinion. Other more qualified or sceptical person, might have different opinion.
I was hoping it would be bluff, while we were watching this. But it was the unusual aspects in those videos, like all police units, Chechen special forces units, which was making me worry that it was not bluff. This is things you would be very creative to use for a bluff, as it implied they were planning occupation of the zones where there was buildup. This is why the social media seemed more reliable source, than the official media articles. Recall much of the Western media thought it was bluff, and also most “high class” Russian journalists.
For many years, I’ve been reading New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, BBC. Also I like El Pais (in Spanish). I wouldn’t believe these as a secondary source. But it’s useful as a primary source, to know what the point of view of those particular journalists. If you want to know what is the fashionable opinion in New York, then New York Times seems a good source (also it has interesting classical music reviews). It’s the same as with Russian media, although I try to avoid reading it too much to avoid becoming angry.
As for my view about “neoliberalism”. I don’t think you should waste any your time being interested in my pedantic comments, but I wrote there https://www.unz.com/akarlin/neolib-theology/#comment-4306469
Ukrainian morale is high and won't subside anytime soon as they all want to avenge the thousands raped and murdered and cities leveled by Putin's hordes whereas Russia has been reduced to importing mercenaries from Africa and conscripting all able-bodied (looks debatable in some cases) men in occupied territory.
I think Ukraine will win in three-four months unless Poutine resorts to using WMDs. They may win sooner if Russia's schemes can't keep inflation from spiraling out of control.Replies: @Lurker
What happened to their previous howitzers and tanks? How will the new howitzers and tanks be different?
Whats happening with the aircraft they still have now? How will additional aircraft alter that?
I don't pay any attention to Russian propaganda, partly because I don't understand Russian, and I'm sure it's probably dishonest. But based upon many, many years of experience, I'm absolutely sure that Western propaganda is totally dishonest about almost everything and can be similarly disregarded. Meanwhile, you strike me as a young (former?) Russian fellow who foolishly tends to generally believe Western propaganda. I think you recently described yourself as a "neoliberal."
Ritter, Macgregor, and Johnson all seem to think that the command and control of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed, preventing it from operating as a cohesive military force. One reasonable point they made is that if the Ukrainian army were actually functional, it probably would have mounted at least some significant counter-attacks or used artillery strikes to relieve the pressure on Mariupol or the Donbas, but nothing like that has happened.
So while you can probably find honest videos of independent Ukrainian squads ambushing a Russian tank or a convoy, there probably aren't any videos showing battalion- or regimental-level Ukrainian attacks because their battalions and regiments no longer exist. At least that's what those credible military experts seem to be claiming.Replies: @Dmitry, @sher singh
Dmitry literally travels the world to collect unique editions of Nike sneakers.
The Brexit skeptics were right. Nothing fundamentally changed in terms of migration, just the composition of the migrants.
The only real change was that Britons now have fewer options to easily live and work in Europe.
Instead this weird political culture has been developing, where Turkish Boris and Sunak are supposed to be leading white supremacist imperialists and the progressive anti-racists are even more in favour of immigration than those guys, seemingly positioning the Overton window on immigration and ethnic issues massively into the open borders zone.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/04/22/the-narcissism-of-the-britain-bashers/
BoJo is clearly not the correct leader to fix the UK's "legal" migration issues. This should not surprise anyone. His track record as London Mayor was for more migrants, not less. The UK needs a breakthrough Populist leader for Make England Great Again [MEGA]. Who knows when (or if) that will happen.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Wokechoke
I was comparing to Northern Europe. Depends on which part of Ukraine, too, as has been mentioned before, Kyiv & Central & Eastern Ukraine will be more secular, but Western Ukraine could be like Poland. The gender war is not as pronounced in Ukraine either (as in the West).
Btw, the Ukrainians are running high quality propaganda material on some of their main channels, including prayer videos. I really like this one (but there are other, more peaceful ones).
Of course, this is a risk. And it is being decided right now where this border will be. Some kind of a reformatting of the state will be required. I’m also worried about who can trickle in from Donbas, although this may be irrational as the guys in Donbas probably couldn’t care less about Europe.
Ideally, they should start tackling organized crime together with the EU before they join.
As to the politics side, Ukraine is large enough to have influence on wider European politics. It almost seems that Ukraine could receive some kind of an “honorary membership”. We’ll see what the Western European countries think about this magnificent idea. 🙂
What’s interesting is that there is a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 42). But in reality, Ukraine is now like Israel and should become a fortress of its own (the EU cannot protect it) but in that case it may not be able to abide by some of the stricter EU norms. It is exactly the spirit of freedom that allows Ukraine to fight so hard, and the EU norms may stifle that spirit. Then again if the majority of them wish to be in the EU, it should be heard. And if it can be pulled off. There is a lot to be weighed here.
I didn’t mean the city, I will most likely be modifying my language to the “Rus vs Moscovite” distinction, although I’m not sure yet (it doesn’t yet seem fully natural and matching with my outlook).
Well, there’s that side, but it seems there is a distinct new identity that appeared in East Ukraine. It must have been building up already before 2014.
This was somewhat bigoted (even if you believe it’s in good spirit). I’ve seen it over and over in Russian movies — the Ukrainian is so often portrayed as the naive, low IQ country bumpkin (from the hutor). As a romnat, I enjoy folklore a lot, but these stereotypes were meant to portray them as backward. When in fact they’re very intelligent, especially in Kyiv, and quite modern. I think that not giving them agency is part of the mistaken perception of “they will not fight back”, of underestimating their backbone.
-
* Russian identity has been partly constructed this way, in second half of the 19th century, after importing the method from Germany. German romanticism has believed Germans were less civilized than France, but the reaction is "we have more deep culture based in the folk, etc". Later, there is copy paste of the German romanticism, but instead about "Russian soul".Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
Ho! A compatriot (of sorts).. well, I’m curious what a native Antipodean has too say about the Z-War.
lol, I do that with all interviews or talking videos, unless in the extremely rare case that someone naturally speaks like a machine-gun like Camille Paglia.
I have just about heard of Rhys Davies due to a Welsh literary view I subscribe to, Planet. I have never read him. I suppose I must now.Replies: @Yevardian, @utu
Years ago when I read D.H. Lawrence novels I enjoyed them very much and was surprised how his psychological insights were so modern. While overtly Lawerence once he got familiar with Freud he was critical of Freud he reinvented Freud in his own terms avoiding vulgar reductionism of Freud. There is no other writer that is so conscious of the unconscious as him.
Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1516054865805549572
The only real change was that Britons now have fewer options to easily live and work in Europe.Replies: @Coconuts, @A123
Idk, I suspect some Brexit sceptics helped bring this about by undermining the chances of any kind of soft-Brexit in the years immediately after the referendum. Given the division of opinion in the country I think the normal thing would have been some kind of soft-Brexit with tightening of restrictions on immigration from outside the EU.
Instead this weird political culture has been developing, where Turkish Boris and Sunak are supposed to be leading white supremacist imperialists and the progressive anti-racists are even more in favour of immigration than those guys, seemingly positioning the Overton window on immigration and ethnic issues massively into the open borders zone.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/04/22/the-narcissism-of-the-britain-bashers/
Boris Johnson’s
first, sorry, second wife had an Indian mother ( Dip Singh, Punjabi Sikh) and they have four children together. Look at who he has appointed Home Secretaryhttps://khpg.org/en/1608810165Replies: @Mr. Hack
I do hope that A123 reads your reply. As an outsider looking in, your comment is valuable and makes a lot of sense. Please don’t keep “lurking around”, and try and take a more active role in our discussions.
By contrast, I can much better evaluate the credibility of Americans like Macgregor, Ritter, and Johnson, as well as the closely-related views of Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen.
The sense I get is that a lot of commenters on this thread are "war buffs," given all the Tweets they've posted over the weeks showing tanks blowing up and that sort of thing. But I'm not particularly interested in that sort of anecdotal evidence. And it's perfectly possible that the Ukrainians have considerable superiority in drones. I'm just not sure that any of that makes any major strategic difference in the outcome.
I'm still persuaded by the overall analysis of those military experts, so if they're wrong, then I'm wrong.Replies: @Mikel, @Emil Nikola Richard
There is a Moldbug interview where he brags (this is one of the weirdest things to brag about in history I have heard) he likes to watch videos of real soldiers getting blown up or bleeding out. It was Syria he was talking about but the butt head was giggling.
Those videos of guys getting shot in the knees at point blank range, or getting their eyes gouged out, or getting beheaded have an audience. Humans basically suck.
No. I have a detailed habit of accurately interpreting what people write.
You have an internal inconsistency problem with your positions.
FACT: Ukrainian forces dammed a water source depriving civilians in Crimea of water.
This leads to a binary choice. There are *only* two options.
-1- Objecting to this action, expresses that the civilians do not deserve having their water cut off. Have you objected to Ukraine’s assault on the Crimean water supply? No. You have not.
-2- Justifying the action, expresses the belief that civilians deserve to have their water cut off. Have you justified the dam building? Yes. You have come up with legal theories of “complexity” as justification. You have also tried blatant misdirection by bringing up very different water issues in other countries.
There is no option #3. Unless you recant, you are a *supporter* of targeting civilians with collective punishment by depriving them of water resources. The actions you espouse undeniably and irrefutably lead to the objective assertion — You do believe the civilians deserve it.
You can justify, and evade, and justify, and evade. But it will never work because Facts are Facts.
____
I do not know whether you are intentionally lying or mentally ill. Either way, you lack the capacity for rational discourse. Thus, there is no point in going any further.
PEACE 😇
I shudder in my tracks because of your great revelatory skills. :-)Replies: @A123
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1516054865805549572
The only real change was that Britons now have fewer options to easily live and work in Europe.Replies: @Coconuts, @A123
Brexit was required to reestablish UK sovereignty over migration, taking it back from EU bureaucrats. The Rwanda plan, if it survives UK Courts, has the potential to help deal with “illegal” migration. The EU courts would have immediately blocked it, so there is already a limited gain from Brexit.
BoJo is clearly not the correct leader to fix the UK’s “legal” migration issues. This should not surprise anyone. His track record as London Mayor was for more migrants, not less. The UK needs a breakthrough Populist leader for Make England Great Again [MEGA]. Who knows when (or if) that will happen.
PEACE 😇
"You guys can't prove your assumptions, therefore you have to abandon them. I can't prove mine either, but mine don't need to be proven, and should just be accepted because... malaise/left-brain/I say so."
Sorry, that won't fly.
Metaphysician, heal thyself.
(Yes, I know I'm being snide. But that's being true to myself - and isn't that what you counsel? :) Despite the apparent circles we're going around, I think we're actually getting somewhere. I will reply more fully a bit later. And in case you're wondering, I haven't given up on McGilchrist. Still slogging through it. There is a lot there to digest.)Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
It’s kind of like Caro’s biography of Lyndon Johnson which has taken longer for Caro to write it than it did for Johnson to live it.
There are great scholars who after a lifetime of due diligence do not have a library as large as McGilchrist bibliography. Perhaps this might tell you something?
That being said, I will probably follow up on few of the citations, though I will follow up some that I find dubious. It will be interesting to see how well the citations back up his point. If they do, it would argue against it being mere padding.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
There is good news in the world this weekend: [1]
Disney stock has plunged by ~33% in twelve months.
The “Go Woke. Go Broke” phenomenon strikes again. The future for Disney looks bleak. They seem determined to push more unwatchable, deviant content that will hurt their bottom lime.
The “Authoritarian Liberal” DNC leadership has a huge problem. Do they target Hispanic Christians for bucking SJW dogma?
If they let the issue slide, all of the “victim culture” groups that depend manufacturing ‘outrage’, will turn on the Democrat party leadership. If they coordinate an attack, they alienate a major swing voter group.
PEACE 😇
__________
[1] https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/22/desantis-signs-new-congressional-map-legislation-removing-disney-special-district-and-stop-woke-education-bill/
Btw, the Ukrainians are running high quality propaganda material on some of their main channels, including prayer videos. I really like this one (but there are other, more peaceful ones).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RevMOGzxl8k Of course, this is a risk. And it is being decided right now where this border will be. Some kind of a reformatting of the state will be required. I'm also worried about who can trickle in from Donbas, although this may be irrational as the guys in Donbas probably couldn't care less about Europe.
Ideally, they should start tackling organized crime together with the EU before they join.
As to the politics side, Ukraine is large enough to have influence on wider European politics. It almost seems that Ukraine could receive some kind of an "honorary membership". We'll see what the Western European countries think about this magnificent idea. :)
What's interesting is that there is a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 42). But in reality, Ukraine is now like Israel and should become a fortress of its own (the EU cannot protect it) but in that case it may not be able to abide by some of the stricter EU norms. It is exactly the spirit of freedom that allows Ukraine to fight so hard, and the EU norms may stifle that spirit. Then again if the majority of them wish to be in the EU, it should be heard. And if it can be pulled off. There is a lot to be weighed here. I didn't mean the city, I will most likely be modifying my language to the "Rus vs Moscovite" distinction, although I'm not sure yet (it doesn't yet seem fully natural and matching with my outlook). Well, there's that side, but it seems there is a distinct new identity that appeared in East Ukraine. It must have been building up already before 2014. This was somewhat bigoted (even if you believe it's in good spirit). I've seen it over and over in Russian movies -- the Ukrainian is so often portrayed as the naive, low IQ country bumpkin (from the hutor). As a romnat, I enjoy folklore a lot, but these stereotypes were meant to portray them as backward. When in fact they're very intelligent, especially in Kyiv, and quite modern. I think that not giving them agency is part of the mistaken perception of "they will not fight back", of underestimating their backbone.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Philip Owen, @Dmitry
If this ideology led to secession down the road then the entire Southern Russia could go along with them, with the cultural affinity.
first, sorry, second wife had an Indian mother ( Dip Singh, Punjabi Sikh) and they have four children together. Look at who he has appointed Home Secretaryhttps://images.indianexpress.com/2021/11/AP21311617515369.jpg Replies: @Yellowface Anonsongbird’s dream coming true in England!
Fake effort, IMO.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
You have an unpleasant habit of ventriloquising dead people and pretending that they would say whatever you want. Cohen argued that 2014 was half Russia’s fault. He’d therefore likely be appalled by Putin’s invasion now, which is far more cut and dry, and far more brutal.
Even Ray McGovern called Putin’s war “indefensible.” And he is a man who has previously defended Putin at every opportunity.
Mearsheimer has nothing to say about the war except to ride his old hobby horse that anything which doesn’t respect Putin’s”19th Century imperialist viewpoints” is a provocation.
Well, WW1 and WW2 showed what happened when we didn’t allow nations to coalesce as states and excercise their own agency, so Mearsheimer can get off the crack pipe.
NATO does not make countries join. Countries ask to join, and the idea that the West can be blamed for Putin’s 19th Century Imperialist endeavour, because we didn’t sufficiently respect his 19th Century imperialist attitude and sell out the Ukrainians, is self-evidently damning of his perspective. It is the dictum of the doormat and is an apology for the abuse of Ukraine. No wonder it appeals to the types of people that it does.
That leaves MacGregor, Ritter and Johnson.
Ritter is a clown and a groomer of children who glorified in his prediction that Russia would make Desert Storm look laborious with this invasion. He also seriously tried to argue that Kyiv was a feint and all part of the plan. He has no credibility. He is a Bagdhad Bob level propagandist, but with a predilection for child molesting.
I can see why you like MacGregor. He declared that Jews are a “rootless people” with no connection to the United States. No doubt, were he being open in his comments, he would also be happy to refer to your country as the Jew S A. Such schizophrenia is typical is such people.
Anyway, 3 days into the war MacGregor added his “expertise” by saying: “The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don’t surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them.”
This we now know was completely wrong, but I was also able to post the exact opposite of MacGregor at the time, because it was already obvious that Russia could only win if Ukrainian morale completely collapsed.
This fact really puts MacGregor’s “point” into the proper perspective. It was merely propaganda in service of Russia, whose only hope of a true victory depended on such nonsense to provoke that collapse.
Suffice to say MacGregor has continued in that vein throughout the war, before it, runs propaganda for Putin in other ludicrous ways, like claiming that Ukrainians are indistinguishable from Russians, which is definitively proven wrong by their heroic resistance. He is so embarrassing in his deceit that I can only assume that he is also some sort of secret kiddy fiddler and has been turned on that basis.
What other misrepresentations and/or cranks do you have? Of all of the millions of former employees of the US security state, there must be at least a few other drink-sodden paedophiles who will parrot Putin’s propaganda for Vodka, or whatever it is that motivates such reprobates.
As for the West engaging in propaganda, let’s all stop being completely braindead and pretending that there is any comparison between the lies of the West and Russia. During the occupation of Iraq, there was an abundance of anti-war media. Every US casualty was ruminated on, and memorialised. No one was shy of calling it a war. And no one went to prison for anything related to opposing any part of it. In fact, people and media were mostly celebrated for being against the war and for pointing out Western atrocities, mistakes and casualties. Obviously, it is the opposite in Russia, where the only dissent allowed pretty much amounts to calls for Putin to “take the kid gloves off” and nuke Kyiv.
But maybe this is all, finally, your way out of this ridiculous hoke you began digging yourself with the American Pravda nonsense. Complete narrative collapse. Or do you really think Russia has it in it to occupy Ukraine successfully? Or that Putin has some magic trick for making the Ukrainians love him and surrender? There’s no route to Russian victory. They have at the best a much harder to handle Northern Ireland situation, but with the Republic of Ireland also remaining hostile. And that’s only if they can actually start winning significant military victories, sustain them and keep their economy strung together.
@ralee85, @markhertling, @thestudyofwar, @kofmanmichael, @spawnofkahn, @jominiw
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856534293848065?t=_wlSygxv0cQy9518JEBnZQ&s=19Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
The most underestimated factor is the South-East half-Ukrainian half-Russian unique identity. Close to 20 million people, rich lands. “Donbas” was only the beginning, too big to be absorbed by Kiev-Galicia, it may turn out also too big for Russia. We are seeing an emergence of a new ‘nation‘ that will be among 10 largest in Europe.
Kiev will not take back Crimea, these guys just might. If the West had any brains left they would be working the locals as “allies”. Zelensky won 70% 3 years ago for a reason – he is used up, but that 70% is still there.
____I do not know whether you are intentionally lying or mentally ill. Either way, you lack the capacity for rational discourse. Thus, there is no point in going any further.PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
Calling me names now? The true hallmark of a great debater!
I shudder in my tracks because of your great revelatory skills. 🙂
This is bear utopianism.
We would be quickly overrun, and would need to flee to the continents and islands that have no bears.
https://www.jellystonemillrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-yogi-booboo-running-with-picnic-basket.png
Even Ray McGovern called Putin's war "indefensible." And he is a man who has previously defended Putin at every opportunity.
Mearsheimer has nothing to say about the war except to ride his old hobby horse that anything which doesn't respect Putin's"19th Century imperialist viewpoints" is a provocation.
Well, WW1 and WW2 showed what happened when we didn't allow nations to coalesce as states and excercise their own agency, so Mearsheimer can get off the crack pipe.
NATO does not make countries join. Countries ask to join, and the idea that the West can be blamed for Putin's 19th Century Imperialist endeavour, because we didn't sufficiently respect his 19th Century imperialist attitude and sell out the Ukrainians, is self-evidently damning of his perspective. It is the dictum of the doormat and is an apology for the abuse of Ukraine. No wonder it appeals to the types of people that it does.
That leaves MacGregor, Ritter and Johnson.
Ritter is a clown and a groomer of children who glorified in his prediction that Russia would make Desert Storm look laborious with this invasion. He also seriously tried to argue that Kyiv was a feint and all part of the plan. He has no credibility. He is a Bagdhad Bob level propagandist, but with a predilection for child molesting.
I can see why you like MacGregor. He declared that Jews are a "rootless people" with no connection to the United States. No doubt, were he being open in his comments, he would also be happy to refer to your country as the Jew S A. Such schizophrenia is typical is such people.
Anyway, 3 days into the war MacGregor added his "expertise" by saying: "The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."
This we now know was completely wrong, but I was also able to post the exact opposite of MacGregor at the time, because it was already obvious that Russia could only win if Ukrainian morale completely collapsed.
This fact really puts MacGregor's "point" into the proper perspective. It was merely propaganda in service of Russia, whose only hope of a true victory depended on such nonsense to provoke that collapse.
Suffice to say MacGregor has continued in that vein throughout the war, before it, runs propaganda for Putin in other ludicrous ways, like claiming that Ukrainians are indistinguishable from Russians, which is definitively proven wrong by their heroic resistance. He is so embarrassing in his deceit that I can only assume that he is also some sort of secret kiddy fiddler and has been turned on that basis.
What other misrepresentations and/or cranks do you have? Of all of the millions of former employees of the US security state, there must be at least a few other drink-sodden paedophiles who will parrot Putin's propaganda for Vodka, or whatever it is that motivates such reprobates.
As for the West engaging in propaganda, let's all stop being completely braindead and pretending that there is any comparison between the lies of the West and Russia. During the occupation of Iraq, there was an abundance of anti-war media. Every US casualty was ruminated on, and memorialised. No one was shy of calling it a war. And no one went to prison for anything related to opposing any part of it. In fact, people and media were mostly celebrated for being against the war and for pointing out Western atrocities, mistakes and casualties. Obviously, it is the opposite in Russia, where the only dissent allowed pretty much amounts to calls for Putin to "take the kid gloves off" and nuke Kyiv.
But maybe this is all, finally, your way out of this ridiculous hoke you began digging yourself with the American Pravda nonsense. Complete narrative collapse. Or do you really think Russia has it in it to occupy Ukraine successfully? Or that Putin has some magic trick for making the Ukrainians love him and surrender? There's no route to Russian victory. They have at the best a much harder to handle Northern Ireland situation, but with the Republic of Ireland also remaining hostile. And that's only if they can actually start winning significant military victories, sustain them and keep their economy strung together.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Barbarossa, @Thrax
Looks like both you and I are running into commenters here that enjoy bending the truth more than a little bit. I wrote something very similar recently to somebody here too:
If its any consolation to you, I think that your version is better than mine. 🙂
“Ventriloquising dead people” that’s good, that’s original!
I shudder in my tracks because of your great revelatory skills. :-)Replies: @A123
I am making objective, fact based conclusions. Reality apparently causes you distress & anger, which is a symptom of dissociative disorders.
I urge you to seek assistance from a mental health professional before you begin to self harm.
PEACE 😇
https://www.psychsearch.net/wp-content/gallery/verde-cartoons-at-psychsearch/Psychiatrist-heal-thyself.jpgReplies: @A123
I’ll be very surprised, if it actually comes to pass.
Fake effort, IMO.
If it even pass, 95% of those ending up in Rwanda will definitely try to get to Western Europe again, and a lot are going underground in the UK. I say, go on full speed, because Rwanda is already a dumping around and this is the precedent.
You prefer deporting the entire body of non-Anglo-Saxon-or-Britonics and a large part of woke-supporting Whites to Africa, right.Replies: @A123, @songbird
Anger? Nothing but fun and disbelief at your expense. I don’t think that your new role as a mental health professional will come to more success than that of a political commenter. Your first diagnosis was clearly a large flop. 🙂
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
Will companies use the new Florida law to return to sanity?
For at least one oil company in Texas…. The answer is, “Yes!”
Needless to say, the Nazi-crats will be on full attack trying to stop this. If one company can defy “liberal 卐 fascism” then others will follow along.
PEACE 😇
https://www.psychsearch.net/wp-content/gallery/verde-cartoons-at-psychsearch/Psychiatrist-heal-thyself.jpgReplies: @A123
I pity you. And, I forgive you.
PEACE 😇
PEACE 😇Replies: @Mr. Hack
I do appreciate you not persecuting me any further…
We would be quickly overrun, and would need to flee to the continents and islands that have no bears.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
In my municipality the city government hunts bears. If they did not do this the citizenry in the western fringes would be overrun with bears breaking down the doors to their kitchens and stealing their picnic baskets.
For at least one oil company in Texas.... The answer is, "Yes!"
https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/houston_chronicle_exxon_bans_lgbtq_blm_flags_4-22-22.jpg
Needless to say, the Nazi-crats will be on full attack trying to stop this. If one company can defy "liberal 卐 fascism" then others will follow along.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
You do realize that the Exxon Corporation is the textbook example of an org that is run by closeted cocksuckers?
PEACE 😇
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nrX-GZCnYxU
As I explained in my previous comment, I don't even think I would really classify my dowsing as particularly "paranormal" or spiritual. It's not even that much of a fringy thing in all honesty.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/21/565746002/u-k-water-companies-sometimes-use-dowsing-rods-to-find-pipes
The above story does state that there is no scientific proof that the dowsing works, but this flies in the face of my actual experience for what it's worth.
The question of scientific certainty is an interesting one, which I'll illustrate with a personal story. A couple years ago I herniated a disk in my lower back which gave me crippling sciatica. I was barely able to stand upright for more than few hours, couple lift literally nothing over a few pounds and was riddled with secondary muscle issues from my bodies attempts to compensate. I had tried different physical therapists and was finally seeing a good one, but progress was glacial.
Someone mentioned an inversion table as an option. I looked up the medical evidence and all official sources claimed that there was no evidence that they did much of anything, though they might help in some cases. The inversion table was relegated by the medical literature to barely above quackery.
However, there are a ton of reviews on Amazon and other places in which people claim it was a literally life saving device. In the end I picked one up, and found that it indeed completely changed my life. Within about two days my sciatic pain had decreased by 75% and the combination of the table and the good physical therapist saw me on a fast track to complete recovery.
Today, I am able to lift and work like I ever did (though I'm smarter in avoiding idiotic abuse of my body) and I hop on the table periodically as needed if I feel I'm getting bent out of shape. For me the inversion table really was life changing. I've recommended trying it to numerous people I've known who have had back issues, with a good success rate.
The point of this rambling boring story? If I had followed the dictates of what the "science" had established as reliable I might have continued to reject the inversion table out of hand. My personal experience as well as my observation of others I know has flown directly in the face of the medical research. So I take such notions of iron clad certainty with a grain of salt. I'm skeptical of them because they are often incomplete, slanted, or just lacking in interested investigative parties.Replies: @Mikel, @Mikel
It looks like you stand a good chance of trying to earn that money. They have tested dowsing before: https://cfiig.org/lewis-rees/
The conditions of that test were strict but not unreasonable for someone offering that kind of money. As I understand it, they can be negotiated between the parties beforehand according to what the claimant feels capable of doing.
In my application I suggested that they use a spot of their choosing with a survey record of buried utilities. I could attempt to trace the buried line by dowsing it and cross reference the result for accuracy.
It's inconvenient that they are in California, while I am on the east coast. I probably couldn't swing a trip out there till this fall, since I'm just about to hit my slamming busy season, but I would swing a trip out there if it seemed plausible. I could meet up with my brother in Oregon while I was out that way.
Anyhow, I will keep you up to date on what they have to say. If I win the 250k I'll throw you all a pizza party! Good booze and bonfire included!Replies: @Mikel
Closeted is better than open. 😁 Open is a Simpson’s episode [MORE]. 😂
PEACE 😇
Fake effort, IMO.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
The scheme only covers “illegal immigrants” and “asylum seekers” – imagine the face of a HK rioter when he’s told he have to pack up for Kigali while almost everyone else moving in as quasi-citizens and legal migrants get to stay. While we’re on it, deport every Ukrainian reaching British shores to Rwanda. That’re sources of backlash.
If it even pass, 95% of those ending up in Rwanda will definitely try to get to Western Europe again, and a lot are going underground in the UK. I say, go on full speed, because Rwanda is already a dumping around and this is the precedent.
You prefer deporting the entire body of non-Anglo-Saxon-or-Britonics and a large part of woke-supporting Whites to Africa, right.
There needs to be a completely separate "homeland" for the SJW Woke. It would be funded by reality TV money. Can you imagine the entertainment value of an episode, The Quest For Avocado Toast !!!. Growing Wheat?!?!? Making Flour?!?!? Avocado Trees?!?!?!
It would be a hit..... Trust Me.....
I am a Hollywood Agent....#LetsGoBrandon 😇Replies: @S
Though the Danes arguably have the best system in Western Europe at present, I think it is still unrealistic on a number of levels. In my view, the only real longterm solution possible is some form of biologicalism. I.e., there is a people called the "Danes" (etc.) , what is in their long term interests? I can't deny the appeal of the idea. Radical rootedness. Not only do you bring it back to historical norms, a return to tradition, but rid yourself (at least I think) of much of the susceptibility, by offloading the woke.
But my own proposal would probably be more modest. Reverse flows, at the same rate. I would tolerate <5% minorities, with primacy acknowledged, excepting certain specific groups, which I think are totally intolerable.
As far as the woke go, I like the idea of applying some sort of acid test, to radical egalitarians. It's fun to dream of sending them all on their way, but I suspect that the most practical system would be to choose the worst offenders, and so encourage the others to change their tune.
As far as destinations go, perhaps, A123 is right and there should be some consideration, about harming local cultures. Probably, the Somali clan system is robust enough to deal with the woke of Maine and Minnesota, who have embraced Somalis. Meanwhile, I think that many others could safely be utilized in labor squads to help solve some of these trash and sewerage problems in urbanizing West Africa.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Probably doubtful in the case of Southern Russia, but there are some people in the North that are quite Euro friendly, but they are not in large numbers. I doubt anyone would secede, but the Novgorod flag is used more than before.
If it even pass, 95% of those ending up in Rwanda will definitely try to get to Western Europe again, and a lot are going underground in the UK. I say, go on full speed, because Rwanda is already a dumping around and this is the precedent.
You prefer deporting the entire body of non-Anglo-Saxon-or-Britonics and a large part of woke-supporting Whites to Africa, right.Replies: @A123, @songbird
We do not hate Africa anywhere near that much.
There needs to be a completely separate “homeland” for the SJW Woke. It would be funded by reality TV money. Can you imagine the entertainment value of an episode, The Quest For Avocado Toast !!!. Growing Wheat?!?!? Making Flour?!?!? Avocado Trees?!?!?!
It would be a hit….. Trust Me…..
I am a Hollywood Agent….#LetsGoBrandon 😇
https://cdn.quotesgram.com/img/71/47/940492015-jonestown_pics_history.jpg
There are great scholars who after a lifetime of due diligence do not have a library as large as McGilchrist bibliography. Perhaps this might tell you something?Replies: @Barbarossa
I’m early into The Master and His Emissary so far, but my observation is that McGilchrist seems to like to document every…little…thing that he cites. This makes for a ton of endnotes. I don’t think that I take it as evidence of chicanery as you do and I do appreciated it since it makes it possible to follow up on obscure little aspects which may be of interest.
That being said, I will probably follow up on few of the citations, though I will follow up some that I find dubious. It will be interesting to see how well the citations back up his point. If they do, it would argue against it being mere padding.
He also has that lame citation habit where he cites an 800 page book, no page number. It's in there somewhere and if you are psychic you'll find what I am referring to.
Anybody happen to know where the proverb actually comes from? It's close to isomorphic to Hegel master-slave deal.
Even Ray McGovern called Putin's war "indefensible." And he is a man who has previously defended Putin at every opportunity.
Mearsheimer has nothing to say about the war except to ride his old hobby horse that anything which doesn't respect Putin's"19th Century imperialist viewpoints" is a provocation.
Well, WW1 and WW2 showed what happened when we didn't allow nations to coalesce as states and excercise their own agency, so Mearsheimer can get off the crack pipe.
NATO does not make countries join. Countries ask to join, and the idea that the West can be blamed for Putin's 19th Century Imperialist endeavour, because we didn't sufficiently respect his 19th Century imperialist attitude and sell out the Ukrainians, is self-evidently damning of his perspective. It is the dictum of the doormat and is an apology for the abuse of Ukraine. No wonder it appeals to the types of people that it does.
That leaves MacGregor, Ritter and Johnson.
Ritter is a clown and a groomer of children who glorified in his prediction that Russia would make Desert Storm look laborious with this invasion. He also seriously tried to argue that Kyiv was a feint and all part of the plan. He has no credibility. He is a Bagdhad Bob level propagandist, but with a predilection for child molesting.
I can see why you like MacGregor. He declared that Jews are a "rootless people" with no connection to the United States. No doubt, were he being open in his comments, he would also be happy to refer to your country as the Jew S A. Such schizophrenia is typical is such people.
Anyway, 3 days into the war MacGregor added his "expertise" by saying: "The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."
This we now know was completely wrong, but I was also able to post the exact opposite of MacGregor at the time, because it was already obvious that Russia could only win if Ukrainian morale completely collapsed.
This fact really puts MacGregor's "point" into the proper perspective. It was merely propaganda in service of Russia, whose only hope of a true victory depended on such nonsense to provoke that collapse.
Suffice to say MacGregor has continued in that vein throughout the war, before it, runs propaganda for Putin in other ludicrous ways, like claiming that Ukrainians are indistinguishable from Russians, which is definitively proven wrong by their heroic resistance. He is so embarrassing in his deceit that I can only assume that he is also some sort of secret kiddy fiddler and has been turned on that basis.
What other misrepresentations and/or cranks do you have? Of all of the millions of former employees of the US security state, there must be at least a few other drink-sodden paedophiles who will parrot Putin's propaganda for Vodka, or whatever it is that motivates such reprobates.
As for the West engaging in propaganda, let's all stop being completely braindead and pretending that there is any comparison between the lies of the West and Russia. During the occupation of Iraq, there was an abundance of anti-war media. Every US casualty was ruminated on, and memorialised. No one was shy of calling it a war. And no one went to prison for anything related to opposing any part of it. In fact, people and media were mostly celebrated for being against the war and for pointing out Western atrocities, mistakes and casualties. Obviously, it is the opposite in Russia, where the only dissent allowed pretty much amounts to calls for Putin to "take the kid gloves off" and nuke Kyiv.
But maybe this is all, finally, your way out of this ridiculous hoke you began digging yourself with the American Pravda nonsense. Complete narrative collapse. Or do you really think Russia has it in it to occupy Ukraine successfully? Or that Putin has some magic trick for making the Ukrainians love him and surrender? There's no route to Russian victory. They have at the best a much harder to handle Northern Ireland situation, but with the Republic of Ireland also remaining hostile. And that's only if they can actually start winning significant military victories, sustain them and keep their economy strung together.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Barbarossa, @Thrax
I can see an argument for WW1 here, but can you elaborate as to why you lumped WW2 in there as well?
And to support the Germans in their appraisal, the fact that there were so many German populations outside of Germany, allowed the Nazis to capitalise on reasonable grievances in their population and sign them up for a much bigger war.
Germany being dissected in the Versailles Treaty, but the populations being left in place, set the scene for WW2. Meanwhile, the German populations were ethnically cleansed after WW2, which is abhorrent as an act out of context, but Germany and most of Europe has been in peace ever since.
Diversity is a striking vulnerability for a state, even if it does have some genuine upsides, and, if you're going to take land, it may be more peaceful in the long-term, to not take the new diverse population.
I don't like this conclusion, but it plays out a lot in human history, so who would I be to pretend that reality will conform to my likes and dislikes?
This is also why I was somewhat sympathetic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. It was limited to what was probably about the true line of where it would be popular.
I still think they could simply have organised a civil movement, if they were truly popular, as the Ukrainian government are pretty liberal and so prone to bending to mass civil movements, but it wasn't a completely mad action.
The biggest problem of 2014 though, and why it too was likely wrong, is shown by what Russia did with the so-called twin republics. Russia seems to have no legitimacy in those lands and therefore has had to have a bunch of literal criminals "governing" them into the ground.
I suspect the reality of Russian "rule" has seeped into other parts of Ukraine and that this goes a long way to explain the intense resistance to Russia, even among Russian speakers.
Of course, the West has also forgotten the lessons of the two wars and has been conducting the confused experiment in diversity since the 90s, as before it was a sort of incidental policy, or allowance of market forces and some colonial hangovers.
The elites really seem to be wagering that things are different now and that greater wealth, media access and general liberality will safeguard the experiment, and honestly, I think they are right, especially since most "diversity" is not about 2 rival blocks.
On the other hand, an experiment is not worth doing just because it will not end in disaster! The upsides may be real, but most of the non-apocalyptic downsides are also real. Anyone who argues that mass non-European immigration to France has made it anything but a worse place to live, is deep in denial. And anyone who thinks that English lives have been made better by large swathes of our cities being turned into colonies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, is similarly off the wall.Replies: @Barbarossa
That being said, I will probably follow up on few of the citations, though I will follow up some that I find dubious. It will be interesting to see how well the citations back up his point. If they do, it would argue against it being mere padding.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
My favorite endnote is on the titular sentence. He has an hallucination that Master & Emissary was a proverb of Nietzsche. He endnotes. “I am sure it is in there some place but I forgot where.”
He also has that lame citation habit where he cites an 800 page book, no page number. It’s in there somewhere and if you are psychic you’ll find what I am referring to.
Anybody happen to know where the proverb actually comes from? It’s close to isomorphic to Hegel master-slave deal.
The conditions of that test were strict but not unreasonable for someone offering that kind of money. As I understand it, they can be negotiated between the parties beforehand according to what the claimant feels capable of doing.Replies: @Barbarossa
Thanks for citing that. It looks like they had a fair testing methodology.
In my application I suggested that they use a spot of their choosing with a survey record of buried utilities. I could attempt to trace the buried line by dowsing it and cross reference the result for accuracy.
It’s inconvenient that they are in California, while I am on the east coast. I probably couldn’t swing a trip out there till this fall, since I’m just about to hit my slamming busy season, but I would swing a trip out there if it seemed plausible. I could meet up with my brother in Oregon while I was out that way.
Anyhow, I will keep you up to date on what they have to say. If I win the 250k I’ll throw you all a pizza party! Good booze and bonfire included!
Even Ray McGovern called Putin's war "indefensible." And he is a man who has previously defended Putin at every opportunity.
Mearsheimer has nothing to say about the war except to ride his old hobby horse that anything which doesn't respect Putin's"19th Century imperialist viewpoints" is a provocation.
Well, WW1 and WW2 showed what happened when we didn't allow nations to coalesce as states and excercise their own agency, so Mearsheimer can get off the crack pipe.
NATO does not make countries join. Countries ask to join, and the idea that the West can be blamed for Putin's 19th Century Imperialist endeavour, because we didn't sufficiently respect his 19th Century imperialist attitude and sell out the Ukrainians, is self-evidently damning of his perspective. It is the dictum of the doormat and is an apology for the abuse of Ukraine. No wonder it appeals to the types of people that it does.
That leaves MacGregor, Ritter and Johnson.
Ritter is a clown and a groomer of children who glorified in his prediction that Russia would make Desert Storm look laborious with this invasion. He also seriously tried to argue that Kyiv was a feint and all part of the plan. He has no credibility. He is a Bagdhad Bob level propagandist, but with a predilection for child molesting.
I can see why you like MacGregor. He declared that Jews are a "rootless people" with no connection to the United States. No doubt, were he being open in his comments, he would also be happy to refer to your country as the Jew S A. Such schizophrenia is typical is such people.
Anyway, 3 days into the war MacGregor added his "expertise" by saying: "The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."
This we now know was completely wrong, but I was also able to post the exact opposite of MacGregor at the time, because it was already obvious that Russia could only win if Ukrainian morale completely collapsed.
This fact really puts MacGregor's "point" into the proper perspective. It was merely propaganda in service of Russia, whose only hope of a true victory depended on such nonsense to provoke that collapse.
Suffice to say MacGregor has continued in that vein throughout the war, before it, runs propaganda for Putin in other ludicrous ways, like claiming that Ukrainians are indistinguishable from Russians, which is definitively proven wrong by their heroic resistance. He is so embarrassing in his deceit that I can only assume that he is also some sort of secret kiddy fiddler and has been turned on that basis.
What other misrepresentations and/or cranks do you have? Of all of the millions of former employees of the US security state, there must be at least a few other drink-sodden paedophiles who will parrot Putin's propaganda for Vodka, or whatever it is that motivates such reprobates.
As for the West engaging in propaganda, let's all stop being completely braindead and pretending that there is any comparison between the lies of the West and Russia. During the occupation of Iraq, there was an abundance of anti-war media. Every US casualty was ruminated on, and memorialised. No one was shy of calling it a war. And no one went to prison for anything related to opposing any part of it. In fact, people and media were mostly celebrated for being against the war and for pointing out Western atrocities, mistakes and casualties. Obviously, it is the opposite in Russia, where the only dissent allowed pretty much amounts to calls for Putin to "take the kid gloves off" and nuke Kyiv.
But maybe this is all, finally, your way out of this ridiculous hoke you began digging yourself with the American Pravda nonsense. Complete narrative collapse. Or do you really think Russia has it in it to occupy Ukraine successfully? Or that Putin has some magic trick for making the Ukrainians love him and surrender? There's no route to Russian victory. They have at the best a much harder to handle Northern Ireland situation, but with the Republic of Ireland also remaining hostile. And that's only if they can actually start winning significant military victories, sustain them and keep their economy strung together.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Barbarossa, @Thrax
Some good English-language analysts to follow on Twitter for those interested; they want Ukraine to win obviously, but have been objective:
@ralee85, @markhertling, @thestudyofwar, @kofmanmichael, @spawnofkahn, @jominiw
The only attempt at formulating a post war plan for Russia that I’ve seen has been by Anders Aslund. HE was immensely influential in the Yeltsin era but not now. He mostly focusses on breaking up the security services rather than economic proposals.
Putin’s attempts to move Russia from oil have mostly been top down winner picking projects. The 12 National Projects, the 42 Strategic Industries, the 100 Systematically Important Companies (such lists included foreign investors) and Medvedeev’s Skolkovo and Import Substitution. This is very Peter The Great in style. It results in these imported “Cathedrals in the Desert” to use a description of similar efforts in Southern Italy. Without a home grown ecology around them, they are fragile and rarely deliver the anticipated results as they struggle for profit. The industries that succeed (largely grain and oil seed production in Russia) in a economy benefitting way are those that arise via natural advantage and tax cuts. Basically, incentives rather than subsidy. (Subsidies of course, create opportunities for corruption). There is no harm in a prosperous Russia with the right shape of economy. Just now, it looks as though most foreign firms’ disinvestments will be nationalized. The is about the worst outcome possible for Russia’s future.
The West would still leave Russia alone after Putin, whether we have his appointed successor, someone trying to reapproach the West, or China taking over. The West basically has economic involution in the form of financialization and will quickly (in 10-25 years) hit a much lower level, so we might see the sanctions as signs of incipient isolationism than exclusion, especially if similar measures were enacted on China and/or significant trade partners with the US or Europe. All the Neoreactionary-derived thought is basically the society mentally preparing for the future.
Btw, the Ukrainians are running high quality propaganda material on some of their main channels, including prayer videos. I really like this one (but there are other, more peaceful ones).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RevMOGzxl8k Of course, this is a risk. And it is being decided right now where this border will be. Some kind of a reformatting of the state will be required. I'm also worried about who can trickle in from Donbas, although this may be irrational as the guys in Donbas probably couldn't care less about Europe.
Ideally, they should start tackling organized crime together with the EU before they join.
As to the politics side, Ukraine is large enough to have influence on wider European politics. It almost seems that Ukraine could receive some kind of an "honorary membership". We'll see what the Western European countries think about this magnificent idea. :)
What's interesting is that there is a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 42). But in reality, Ukraine is now like Israel and should become a fortress of its own (the EU cannot protect it) but in that case it may not be able to abide by some of the stricter EU norms. It is exactly the spirit of freedom that allows Ukraine to fight so hard, and the EU norms may stifle that spirit. Then again if the majority of them wish to be in the EU, it should be heard. And if it can be pulled off. There is a lot to be weighed here. I didn't mean the city, I will most likely be modifying my language to the "Rus vs Moscovite" distinction, although I'm not sure yet (it doesn't yet seem fully natural and matching with my outlook). Well, there's that side, but it seems there is a distinct new identity that appeared in East Ukraine. It must have been building up already before 2014. This was somewhat bigoted (even if you believe it's in good spirit). I've seen it over and over in Russian movies -- the Ukrainian is so often portrayed as the naive, low IQ country bumpkin (from the hutor). As a romnat, I enjoy folklore a lot, but these stereotypes were meant to portray them as backward. When in fact they're very intelligent, especially in Kyiv, and quite modern. I think that not giving them agency is part of the mistaken perception of "they will not fight back", of underestimating their backbone.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Philip Owen, @Dmitry
The mural at the Kievskaya metro station says it all.
If it even pass, 95% of those ending up in Rwanda will definitely try to get to Western Europe again, and a lot are going underground in the UK. I say, go on full speed, because Rwanda is already a dumping around and this is the precedent.
You prefer deporting the entire body of non-Anglo-Saxon-or-Britonics and a large part of woke-supporting Whites to Africa, right.Replies: @A123, @songbird
I suspect that this is why Denmark’s initiative has been a relative success. The people who were trying to get into Denmark have just shifted their targets to other countries, which require less effort to get into. It hasn’t stopped the flow, just redirected most of it.
Though the Danes arguably have the best system in Western Europe at present, I think it is still unrealistic on a number of levels. In my view, the only real longterm solution possible is some form of biologicalism. I.e., there is a people called the “Danes” (etc.) , what is in their long term interests?
I can’t deny the appeal of the idea. Radical rootedness. Not only do you bring it back to historical norms, a return to tradition, but rid yourself (at least I think) of much of the susceptibility, by offloading the woke.
But my own proposal would probably be more modest. Reverse flows, at the same rate. I would tolerate <5% minorities, with primacy acknowledged, excepting certain specific groups, which I think are totally intolerable.
As far as the woke go, I like the idea of applying some sort of acid test, to radical egalitarians. It's fun to dream of sending them all on their way, but I suspect that the most practical system would be to choose the worst offenders, and so encourage the others to change their tune.
As far as destinations go, perhaps, A123 is right and there should be some consideration, about harming local cultures. Probably, the Somali clan system is robust enough to deal with the woke of Maine and Minnesota, who have embraced Somalis. Meanwhile, I think that many others could safely be utilized in labor squads to help solve some of these trash and sewerage problems in urbanizing West Africa.
Can you show the therapist where on the doll that the 19th Century touched you? Seems like an irrational sore spot for you. There’s plenty of Real Politic in every century. 18th had plenty of liberalism, conservatism, slavers, abolitionists. monarchists, republicans and reaction.
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/430234570624252373/
At what point will Ukraine invade Transnistria? Just like de Gaulle invaded Saint Pierre and Miquelon
It seems as though some EEs want Romania to absorb Moldova and then to assist in an attack on Transnistria. Is Moldova really less different from Romania than Ukraine is from Russia?
Who will pay Ze his billions? And how much will end up in offshore bank accounts?
Pridnestrovie is roughly 30% each Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan. The Ukrainians in Pridnestiovie are generally like the Ukrainians in Crimea.
I’m a fan of lumping WW2 in with WW1 as a long war. The sides were broadly the same, the leaders in WW2 were usually veterans of WW1, and the main instigators, the Germans, saw them as much the same struggle.
And to support the Germans in their appraisal, the fact that there were so many German populations outside of Germany, allowed the Nazis to capitalise on reasonable grievances in their population and sign them up for a much bigger war.
Germany being dissected in the Versailles Treaty, but the populations being left in place, set the scene for WW2. Meanwhile, the German populations were ethnically cleansed after WW2, which is abhorrent as an act out of context, but Germany and most of Europe has been in peace ever since.
Diversity is a striking vulnerability for a state, even if it does have some genuine upsides, and, if you’re going to take land, it may be more peaceful in the long-term, to not take the new diverse population.
I don’t like this conclusion, but it plays out a lot in human history, so who would I be to pretend that reality will conform to my likes and dislikes?
This is also why I was somewhat sympathetic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. It was limited to what was probably about the true line of where it would be popular.
I still think they could simply have organised a civil movement, if they were truly popular, as the Ukrainian government are pretty liberal and so prone to bending to mass civil movements, but it wasn’t a completely mad action.
The biggest problem of 2014 though, and why it too was likely wrong, is shown by what Russia did with the so-called twin republics. Russia seems to have no legitimacy in those lands and therefore has had to have a bunch of literal criminals “governing” them into the ground.
I suspect the reality of Russian “rule” has seeped into other parts of Ukraine and that this goes a long way to explain the intense resistance to Russia, even among Russian speakers.
Of course, the West has also forgotten the lessons of the two wars and has been conducting the confused experiment in diversity since the 90s, as before it was a sort of incidental policy, or allowance of market forces and some colonial hangovers.
The elites really seem to be wagering that things are different now and that greater wealth, media access and general liberality will safeguard the experiment, and honestly, I think they are right, especially since most “diversity” is not about 2 rival blocks.
On the other hand, an experiment is not worth doing just because it will not end in disaster! The upsides may be real, but most of the non-apocalyptic downsides are also real. Anyone who argues that mass non-European immigration to France has made it anything but a worse place to live, is deep in denial. And anyone who thinks that English lives have been made better by large swathes of our cities being turned into colonies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, is similarly off the wall.
When my oldest daughter was about 9 she was learning about WW1 as part of history. After she read about the end of WW1 and the treaty of Versailles, she looked at my wife and said, "But Mom, everyone is so unhappy, isn't their just going to be another war?" To which my wife replied, "Well actually...."
On diversity, a little is not a bad thing since anything which is completely static is dead. However, even if the current flow of humanity and capital produces some short term material benefits resulting from cheap labor and profligate consumption it's sowing the seeds of it's own demise.
As in your European examples it is impossible to have a functional body politic (much less culture) from a mass of people who do not share basic assumptions of how society should work and what the priorities are.
In the US right now there are completely unreconcilable differences between the MAGA and Woke contingents, plus every other peripheral sub-group. I don't really see how accommodating resolution is possible.
Once the bread and circuses of the consumer economy start getting relatively thin (as they already have post-Vid) the differences are going to become a lot more meaningful and stark.
From a cultural standpoint, I would already have argued that the costs of diversity and globalization were impossibly steep, but I think we are approaching a time where even from a purely material level it will look like illusory progress for a poor return.
In the end I think the best days of globalization and multiculturalism are behind us and it's going to time to pay the piper.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa
Putin's attempts to move Russia from oil have mostly been top down winner picking projects. The 12 National Projects, the 42 Strategic Industries, the 100 Systematically Important Companies (such lists included foreign investors) and Medvedeev's Skolkovo and Import Substitution. This is very Peter The Great in style. It results in these imported "Cathedrals in the Desert" to use a description of similar efforts in Southern Italy. Without a home grown ecology around them, they are fragile and rarely deliver the anticipated results as they struggle for profit. The industries that succeed (largely grain and oil seed production in Russia) in a economy benefitting way are those that arise via natural advantage and tax cuts. Basically, incentives rather than subsidy. (Subsidies of course, create opportunities for corruption). There is no harm in a prosperous Russia with the right shape of economy. Just now, it looks as though most foreign firms' disinvestments will be nationalized. The is about the worst outcome possible for Russia's future.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Iranization all again. Oil can’t sell, basic industries import substituted, advanced industrial goods smuggled from China.
The West would still leave Russia alone after Putin, whether we have his appointed successor, someone trying to reapproach the West, or China taking over. The West basically has economic involution in the form of financialization and will quickly (in 10-25 years) hit a much lower level, so we might see the sanctions as signs of incipient isolationism than exclusion, especially if similar measures were enacted on China and/or significant trade partners with the US or Europe. All the Neoreactionary-derived thought is basically the society mentally preparing for the future.
It seems as though some EEs want Romania to absorb Moldova and then to assist in an attack on Transnistria. Is Moldova really less different from Romania than Ukraine is from Russia?
Who will pay Ze his billions? And how much will end up in offshore bank accounts?Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail
The official language of Moldova is Romanian
Anyway, that is their latest stance, but curiously, the constitution had it as "Moldovan", and there are Moldovan-Romanian dictionaries. From what I hear, informal spoken "Moldovan" is so distinct as to be incomprehensible in certain situations. (but maybe, that would make it like Swabian?)
Supposedly, sentiment to join Romania increased to 50% in a recent survey. But wasn't that close to certain election results in Ukraine?Replies: @Yevardian
Adolf Hitler would like to point out that he was a patriot as well:
@ralee85, @markhertling, @thestudyofwar, @kofmanmichael, @spawnofkahn, @jominiw
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856534293848065?t=_wlSygxv0cQy9518JEBnZQ&s=19Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
Wait, haven’t these turkeys been saying Russia can only last another 10-14 days since early March?
https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1518025789102567425?t=kRDwtqMQxWpoOKykWCxSZQ&s=19Replies: @Wokechoke
In my application I suggested that they use a spot of their choosing with a survey record of buried utilities. I could attempt to trace the buried line by dowsing it and cross reference the result for accuracy.
It's inconvenient that they are in California, while I am on the east coast. I probably couldn't swing a trip out there till this fall, since I'm just about to hit my slamming busy season, but I would swing a trip out there if it seemed plausible. I could meet up with my brother in Oregon while I was out that way.
Anyhow, I will keep you up to date on what they have to say. If I win the 250k I'll throw you all a pizza party! Good booze and bonfire included!Replies: @Mikel
Deal! And again, if you feel that doing this for profit would spoil the experiment, I can volunteer to receive it instead.
In thinking it over more, I do think I see a potential flaw in the testing for the other dowser. There are a lot of suppositions attached, but I'll throw it out there for your consideration.
I know that I would not be able to detect a chunk of gas line or electric wire under a cardboard box. The operative thing is for it to be buried in the ground (though there may be exceptions to that, which I would have to test more systematically). As I mentioned earlier, I seem to be able to detect a wide array of things; water pipes full or empty, gas and electric lines in use or defunct, large tree roots, and seemingly graves. It seems a strange assortment and I have done quite a bit of considering in the past as to what the pattern could be.
My "scientific" explanation, or at least the best I can come up with, is as follows...The common denominator seems to be disturbed earth/ a foreign object buried in the earth. We know the earth has an electrical field, we use it all the time in compasses etc. We know the human body and brain has it's own electrical field as well. Perhaps the act of burying something substantial like a line or grave, produces some disturbance in this electrical field, a ripple if you will. When a person holding a pair of L shaped copper wires passes over this ripple their innate electromagnetic field interacts with and amplifies this field disturbance in the earth producing a crossing of the copper wires. I don't know if this explanation is correct, how one would potentially measure such a phenomenon with instrumentation or if such instrumentation even exists, but it seems consistent with my experience and logical enough to pass the smell test.
To get back to our previously tested dowser...He believed that he could detect a cup of water under a cardboard box. I would highly doubt that he can since I would highly suspect that water dowsing may work on a similar principle to my dowsing experience. Basically, ground water; whether a spring, artesian well or aquifer could produce a similar electromagnetic disruption which could be detected by an experienced dowser. A static jug of water under a box would likely produce nada.
My caveat is that I haven't tried to dowse for water since I don't have a well drilling rig to test my guesses anyhow. Around where I am it's not as if finding water is exactly rocket science anyhow. Anywhere you plunk a well is likely to produce and any hole you dig becomes an instant pond. I heard of well drillers around here that do dowse, and I don't doubt that it potentially works, but it's not like the stakes are all that impressive around here.
I believe the tested dowser was from Nevada or Arizona. That would seem to present a much more rigorous environment for someone with that alleged ability and makes him potentially more credible. He may have just been completely wrong about his ability to find water under the testing conditions while perhaps being actually able to find ground water for a well. Again, it's just conjecture since I haven't the foggiest idea about this guy or his track record back where he lives.Replies: @Mikel, @songbird
Though the Danes arguably have the best system in Western Europe at present, I think it is still unrealistic on a number of levels. In my view, the only real longterm solution possible is some form of biologicalism. I.e., there is a people called the "Danes" (etc.) , what is in their long term interests? I can't deny the appeal of the idea. Radical rootedness. Not only do you bring it back to historical norms, a return to tradition, but rid yourself (at least I think) of much of the susceptibility, by offloading the woke.
But my own proposal would probably be more modest. Reverse flows, at the same rate. I would tolerate <5% minorities, with primacy acknowledged, excepting certain specific groups, which I think are totally intolerable.
As far as the woke go, I like the idea of applying some sort of acid test, to radical egalitarians. It's fun to dream of sending them all on their way, but I suspect that the most practical system would be to choose the worst offenders, and so encourage the others to change their tune.
As far as destinations go, perhaps, A123 is right and there should be some consideration, about harming local cultures. Probably, the Somali clan system is robust enough to deal with the woke of Maine and Minnesota, who have embraced Somalis. Meanwhile, I think that many others could safely be utilized in labor squads to help solve some of these trash and sewerage problems in urbanizing West Africa.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Denmark is open to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, which is why I’m almost certain the handful of HK rioters being given asylum will get to stay in the UK and integrate with the co-ethnic quasi-citizens, while everyone else is dumped onto Rwandans. Ukrainians are high IQ and useful to Denmark, and likewise HK people in the UK.
The future could be even more tribal than the because realities fragment under the internet and Nick Land-style schizos.
But, based on the many pictures that I've seen, they'd be wrong. Many of the Ukrainians are middle-aged or elderly. Their youth cohorts are probably matched or exceeded by non-Euro youth cohorts, pretending to be Ukrainians.
Since the Danes have no concept of biologism, they will be forced to accept them all.
And Ze grew up speaking Russian. And English is an official language of Ireland.
Anyway, that is their latest stance, but curiously, the constitution had it as “Moldovan”, and there are Moldovan-Romanian dictionaries. From what I hear, informal spoken “Moldovan” is so distinct as to be incomprehensible in certain situations. (but maybe, that would make it like Swabian?)
Supposedly, sentiment to join Romania increased to 50% in a recent survey. But wasn’t that close to certain election results in Ukraine?
Thinking about the Branch Azovstal nutcases. If I were Putin I’d have Boris airlift them out. These people are bonkers. They wish to become Masada like martyrs. They are fucking absurdities. I’d wish them on my opponents as Asylum seekers.
BoJo is clearly not the correct leader to fix the UK's "legal" migration issues. This should not surprise anyone. His track record as London Mayor was for more migrants, not less. The UK needs a breakthrough Populist leader for Make England Great Again [MEGA]. Who knows when (or if) that will happen.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Wokechoke
England is sunk in a third world morass. No going back.
Most Danes would probably see Ukrainian refugees as a way to dilute the North Africans.
But, based on the many pictures that I’ve seen, they’d be wrong. Many of the Ukrainians are middle-aged or elderly. Their youth cohorts are probably matched or exceeded by non-Euro youth cohorts, pretending to be Ukrainians.
Since the Danes have no concept of biologism, they will be forced to accept them all.
Yes, they were absolutely right. Russia had to retreat and is only able to sustain its much more limited attacks because it reinforced from the failed ones and took some time to refit and prepare.
You’ve got a great supply of copium there.
Anyway, that is their latest stance, but curiously, the constitution had it as "Moldovan", and there are Moldovan-Romanian dictionaries. From what I hear, informal spoken "Moldovan" is so distinct as to be incomprehensible in certain situations. (but maybe, that would make it like Swabian?)
Supposedly, sentiment to join Romania increased to 50% in a recent survey. But wasn't that close to certain election results in Ukraine?Replies: @Yevardian
Whoever claimed that was seriously full of BS. It’s nothing more than a strong accent (‘ch’ is usually deaffricated to ‘sh’, marginally different vowel qualities, etc.) [also found across the border in Romanian Moldovia, e.g. villages around Birlad], with a few words now considered archaic in standard Romanian, and some more Russian loans for technical terms. I guarantee you no Romanian will have any trouble understanding ‘Moldovan’, unless perhaps it was a particularly confused old man missing all his teeth.
Actually, there are two dialects in Romania proper that are probably stronger, that of Bukovina, and also Muntenia, where people still retain the pluperfect verbal conjugations, lost elsewhere in the country.
Do you even read anything before posting half-formed conjectures here on unz-dot-com?
Maybe, that was all politics. Though, to the Anglophone world, I'm not so sure the differences would be considered small. Anyway, I've never pretended to a knowledge of Romanian, and my comment was meant partly to solicit opinions. (though preferably from primary speakers)
But, for me, linguistics is an interesting sideshow to the way that people on both sides want to redraw the borders of Ukraine's Western neighbors. At present, it is hard for me to see how any of these re-draws would work.
Moldova seems dirt poor, would the Romanians really want it? And annexing bits of territory from Western Ukraine would require armies of Poles and Romanians to march in, which would probably bring sanctions. I don't think they are inclined to do it.Replies: @silviosilver
https://twitter.com/elaadeliahu/status/1516128001242587140?s=21&t=Scq81MBISnWuUoOp6XCyLAReplies: @Yevardian
Who cares?
This current offensive is basically Russia’s last window to achieve any kind of breakthrough. If it fails, ordering mobilization may collapse the regime; even if survives that, a war of attrition does not favor Russia as their economy can only get worse while Ukraine is receiving more and more equipment. Ukraine does have a difficult task in terms of logistics since much infrastructure has been destroyed and the route from Poland may be overburdened (people here with better knowledge of the region feel free to correct me). Recommend reading this and Mick Ryan’s thread that was quoted; the Russians need a cohesiveness that they haven’t demonstrated so far in order to achieve a breakthrough. It’s possible, but unlikely
Three examples or four occur to me.
Germany ww1. Hyperinflation hit them very very hard.
In ww1 Russian Empire had inflation as a result of an economy booming during war. The Revolution and over throw of the Czar was at first middle class anger about savings wiped out during war inflation.
Vietnam. The US leaves Gold. Butter and Bullets didn’t work for long as LBJ also doled out goodies to niggers.
I’ve heard that Spain (or rather the Reich) suffered inflation because of extended wars in Netherlands. They say it was Potosi silver, but the wars did them in.
The US effort in ww2 that gained the US 50% of global gdp was an unusual event. Might not be repeated.
The EU isn’t made of money nor is the US.Replies: @Thrax
https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1518025789102567425?t=kRDwtqMQxWpoOKykWCxSZQ&s=19Replies: @Wokechoke
Infinite spending on military gear generally gives a country hyper inflation.
Three examples or four occur to me.
Germany ww1. Hyperinflation hit them very very hard.
In ww1 Russian Empire had inflation as a result of an economy booming during war. The Revolution and over throw of the Czar was at first middle class anger about savings wiped out during war inflation.
Vietnam. The US leaves Gold. Butter and Bullets didn’t work for long as LBJ also doled out goodies to niggers.
I’ve heard that Spain (or rather the Reich) suffered inflation because of extended wars in Netherlands. They say it was Potosi silver, but the wars did them in.
The US effort in ww2 that gained the US 50% of global gdp was an unusual event. Might not be repeated.
The EU isn’t made of money nor is the US.
If I do win the prize, I’ll agree to give some portion of it to a charity of your choosing (provided it is also amenable to me).
In thinking it over more, I do think I see a potential flaw in the testing for the other dowser. There are a lot of suppositions attached, but I’ll throw it out there for your consideration.
I know that I would not be able to detect a chunk of gas line or electric wire under a cardboard box. The operative thing is for it to be buried in the ground (though there may be exceptions to that, which I would have to test more systematically). As I mentioned earlier, I seem to be able to detect a wide array of things; water pipes full or empty, gas and electric lines in use or defunct, large tree roots, and seemingly graves. It seems a strange assortment and I have done quite a bit of considering in the past as to what the pattern could be.
My “scientific” explanation, or at least the best I can come up with, is as follows…The common denominator seems to be disturbed earth/ a foreign object buried in the earth. We know the earth has an electrical field, we use it all the time in compasses etc. We know the human body and brain has it’s own electrical field as well. Perhaps the act of burying something substantial like a line or grave, produces some disturbance in this electrical field, a ripple if you will. When a person holding a pair of L shaped copper wires passes over this ripple their innate electromagnetic field interacts with and amplifies this field disturbance in the earth producing a crossing of the copper wires. I don’t know if this explanation is correct, how one would potentially measure such a phenomenon with instrumentation or if such instrumentation even exists, but it seems consistent with my experience and logical enough to pass the smell test.
To get back to our previously tested dowser…He believed that he could detect a cup of water under a cardboard box. I would highly doubt that he can since I would highly suspect that water dowsing may work on a similar principle to my dowsing experience. Basically, ground water; whether a spring, artesian well or aquifer could produce a similar electromagnetic disruption which could be detected by an experienced dowser. A static jug of water under a box would likely produce nada.
My caveat is that I haven’t tried to dowse for water since I don’t have a well drilling rig to test my guesses anyhow. Around where I am it’s not as if finding water is exactly rocket science anyhow. Anywhere you plunk a well is likely to produce and any hole you dig becomes an instant pond. I heard of well drillers around here that do dowse, and I don’t doubt that it potentially works, but it’s not like the stakes are all that impressive around here.
I believe the tested dowser was from Nevada or Arizona. That would seem to present a much more rigorous environment for someone with that alleged ability and makes him potentially more credible. He may have just been completely wrong about his ability to find water under the testing conditions while perhaps being actually able to find ground water for a well. Again, it’s just conjecture since I haven’t the foggiest idea about this guy or his track record back where he lives.
Another thought that comes to my mind is that finding underground water can be a very profitable enterprise. I remember from the times I spent in Chile that people there took the matter very seriously. If you find an aquifer you can suddenly turn a worthless piece of arid land in a very lucrative farm, which has led many people to become rich. With the climate they have in central and northern Chile they can grow most any crop, especially off-season fruit for the northern hemisphere. Of course, all the efforts I saw them making to find water is through expensive technology. Some imported Schlumberger devices based on seismic sounding, if my memory doesn't fail. I did hear people in rural areas talking about their dowsing skills but serious investors don't seem to pay attention to them.
Your proposed mechanism also sounds questionable to my non-expert ears. We must be talking of very weak electric fields that apparently cannot even be detected instrumentally. They use seismic soundings instead that infer the composition of underground layers through very indirect methods.
However, in this challenge I am on your side. One thing I noticed yesterday is that this looks like a very militant organization of skeptics and I'm sure they are keen on maintaining their record of nobody being able to win their prize. If you get to negotiate a test with them I would advise to be very realistic about what you think you can really do and make sure that the test measures that ability, not anything else. If they are honest and your skill goes beyond what scientific research has proven to be possible (any kind of dowsing) you should be able to find some agreement. I actually think that we are the sanest group of commenters on his site :-) Although, to be fair, Sailer also attracts some good commenters but I have the impression that their discussions tend to end up piling on on the same subjects. They're not as versatile as here.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa
I wouldn't say that I am a believer, but it seems as rational a technique as any, if you are metal detecting for fun, and not with a systematic approach of small grids.
Anyway, I suspect that there is not much buried treasure in the US, when you get far inland. From what I heard, people on farms in the North around the mountains were pretty hard up, and did a lot of bartering. I've heard of some treasures, like from Rogers' Rangers raid into Quebec and the lost pay of the Benedict Arnold's expedition to capture Quebec (which some believe was actually found by people who bought up a lot of land at the time), but they seem few and far between.
According to The Moldovans: Romania, Russia, and the politics of culture Soviets stated that they were two separate languages, and Moldovan was written in a distinct Cyrillic script, both from Russian and from older Romanian.
Maybe, that was all politics. Though, to the Anglophone world, I’m not so sure the differences would be considered small. Anyway, I’ve never pretended to a knowledge of Romanian, and my comment was meant partly to solicit opinions. (though preferably from primary speakers)
But, for me, linguistics is an interesting sideshow to the way that people on both sides want to redraw the borders of Ukraine’s Western neighbors. At present, it is hard for me to see how any of these re-draws would work.
Moldova seems dirt poor, would the Romanians really want it? And annexing bits of territory from Western Ukraine would require armies of Poles and Romanians to march in, which would probably bring sanctions. I don’t think they are inclined to do it.
"You guys can't prove your assumptions, therefore you have to abandon them. I can't prove mine either, but mine don't need to be proven, and should just be accepted because... malaise/left-brain/I say so."
Sorry, that won't fly.
Metaphysician, heal thyself.
(Yes, I know I'm being snide. But that's being true to myself - and isn't that what you counsel? :) Despite the apparent circles we're going around, I think we're actually getting somewhere. I will reply more fully a bit later. And in case you're wondering, I haven't given up on McGilchrist. Still slogging through it. There is a lot there to digest.)Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
Of course I’m in the same boat! Once you understand this boat it’s a good boat to be in.
No, no, you don’t have to give up your assumptions.
We can’t actually live without some assumptions 🙂
You just have to hold them “lightly”, not take them so seriously – recognize they are symbols of an ungraspeable reality.
There is this idea that logic and science is of a radically different order of knowledge, and more certain – but when you realize that at the heart of it lies unproven assumptions, the spell is broken 🙂
And suddenly, the world in all it’s richness is restored to you – which we lost at the beginning of modernity in our desire to be “tough minded”.
Adolescence is characterized by trying to be “tough” and “adult” – you reject your family and community and strike out alone to prove yourself etc.
Then when you get older and more mature you are able to return to family and community without feeling you need prove how “tough” you are anymore.
You’re strong and independent enough to no longer be threatened by social ties etc.
So too when we are ready to grow up and no longer need to prove how “tough” we are we can accept that the quest for certainty, for total cognitive independence, was childish insecurity.
Total cognitive independence would mean no unproven assumption we must “depend” on – this is the adolescent dream. Our own minds do not depend on the universe. It can totally grasp it from the outside.
But as beings that “grow out of” this Cosmos we are radically connected to it and dependent on it – and once you mature you grasp this is no bad thing, but is to be connected to the source of life and vitality itself.
Glad you’re still enjoying Mcgilchrist!
I myself have not fully finished him either – there is so much, and it is so rich and wide ranging.
It doesn't mean that either is useless, outmoded, or wrong, but a over-reliance on one framework at the expense of the other will lead to distortions and absurdities.
In the end there is only Reality, which persists whether we acknowledge it or not, and which is fundamentally un-graspable in it's totality because it exceeds the human mind's ability to contextualize and grasp. It is quite literally outside of our frame of reference.
As you mention, certainty in any sense is a symptom of a childish mindset. I try to constantly question and interrogate my preconceptions. I hope I never stop that process, since without it I will be hopelessly trapped in my own limitations and those of my prior assumptions.
So if by "certainty" you mean an insistence that yes, we really do understand the underlying reality of things, then you may (or may not) be right about what modernity thinks, but you would not be right about me, personally.
I don't really care very much about 'ultimate reality' or 'the ultimate truth.' At least not in this life. Though I admit it can be exciting to think that, if there's a God, one of the things to look forward to in the afterlife is having this 'ultimate truth' revealed to us (whatever the hell that might mean). Was it merely a desire to be "tough" that led some to jettison prayer in favor of penicillin? In my view, the decision was based on a preference for ideas that work more reliably, rather than "toughness" for its own sake.
And of course one man's richness may be another man's superstitious idiocy. When we abandon, or radically downgrade, rationality and objectivity, then my fear is we open the door to all sorts of completely unfounded stupidity: telekinesis, pyramid power, healing crystals, Raelians; all of which draw succor from the notion that objectivity itself rests on unproven assumptions.
Finally, to answer a question you put to me earlier, whether it is "reasonable" to believe that light can be both a wave and a particle. I would have to answer yes, it is. It is reasonable to believe it because there is good evidence to support it. (Of course, most people, including me, accept that evidence on the authority of physicists, rather than because of having individually understood it - though this, too, is a reasonable thing to do.)Replies: @A123, @AaronB
In 2018, the leader of Actiunea 2012, a civic movement that supports Romanian-Moldovan reunification, was banned from entering Moldova by the government in Chisinau.
https://balkaninsight.com/2018/09/04/romania-moldova-unification-movement-grows-steadily-despite-obstacles-09-03-2018/
And to support the Germans in their appraisal, the fact that there were so many German populations outside of Germany, allowed the Nazis to capitalise on reasonable grievances in their population and sign them up for a much bigger war.
Germany being dissected in the Versailles Treaty, but the populations being left in place, set the scene for WW2. Meanwhile, the German populations were ethnically cleansed after WW2, which is abhorrent as an act out of context, but Germany and most of Europe has been in peace ever since.
Diversity is a striking vulnerability for a state, even if it does have some genuine upsides, and, if you're going to take land, it may be more peaceful in the long-term, to not take the new diverse population.
I don't like this conclusion, but it plays out a lot in human history, so who would I be to pretend that reality will conform to my likes and dislikes?
This is also why I was somewhat sympathetic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. It was limited to what was probably about the true line of where it would be popular.
I still think they could simply have organised a civil movement, if they were truly popular, as the Ukrainian government are pretty liberal and so prone to bending to mass civil movements, but it wasn't a completely mad action.
The biggest problem of 2014 though, and why it too was likely wrong, is shown by what Russia did with the so-called twin republics. Russia seems to have no legitimacy in those lands and therefore has had to have a bunch of literal criminals "governing" them into the ground.
I suspect the reality of Russian "rule" has seeped into other parts of Ukraine and that this goes a long way to explain the intense resistance to Russia, even among Russian speakers.
Of course, the West has also forgotten the lessons of the two wars and has been conducting the confused experiment in diversity since the 90s, as before it was a sort of incidental policy, or allowance of market forces and some colonial hangovers.
The elites really seem to be wagering that things are different now and that greater wealth, media access and general liberality will safeguard the experiment, and honestly, I think they are right, especially since most "diversity" is not about 2 rival blocks.
On the other hand, an experiment is not worth doing just because it will not end in disaster! The upsides may be real, but most of the non-apocalyptic downsides are also real. Anyone who argues that mass non-European immigration to France has made it anything but a worse place to live, is deep in denial. And anyone who thinks that English lives have been made better by large swathes of our cities being turned into colonies of Pakistan and Bangladesh, is similarly off the wall.Replies: @Barbarossa
Thanks. That clarifies your point on WW2 and I think it is a valid one.
When my oldest daughter was about 9 she was learning about WW1 as part of history. After she read about the end of WW1 and the treaty of Versailles, she looked at my wife and said, “But Mom, everyone is so unhappy, isn’t their just going to be another war?” To which my wife replied, “Well actually….”
On diversity, a little is not a bad thing since anything which is completely static is dead. However, even if the current flow of humanity and capital produces some short term material benefits resulting from cheap labor and profligate consumption it’s sowing the seeds of it’s own demise.
As in your European examples it is impossible to have a functional body politic (much less culture) from a mass of people who do not share basic assumptions of how society should work and what the priorities are.
In the US right now there are completely unreconcilable differences between the MAGA and Woke contingents, plus every other peripheral sub-group. I don’t really see how accommodating resolution is possible.
Once the bread and circuses of the consumer economy start getting relatively thin (as they already have post-Vid) the differences are going to become a lot more meaningful and stark.
From a cultural standpoint, I would already have argued that the costs of diversity and globalization were impossibly steep, but I think we are approaching a time where even from a purely material level it will look like illusory progress for a poor return.
In the end I think the best days of globalization and multiculturalism are behind us and it’s going to time to pay the piper.
No, no, you don't have to give up your assumptions.
We can't actually live without some assumptions :)
You just have to hold them "lightly", not take them so seriously - recognize they are symbols of an ungraspeable reality.
There is this idea that logic and science is of a radically different order of knowledge, and more certain - but when you realize that at the heart of it lies unproven assumptions, the spell is broken :)
And suddenly, the world in all it's richness is restored to you - which we lost at the beginning of modernity in our desire to be "tough minded".
Adolescence is characterized by trying to be "tough" and "adult" - you reject your family and community and strike out alone to prove yourself etc.
Then when you get older and more mature you are able to return to family and community without feeling you need prove how "tough" you are anymore.
You're strong and independent enough to no longer be threatened by social ties etc.
So too when we are ready to grow up and no longer need to prove how "tough" we are we can accept that the quest for certainty, for total cognitive independence, was childish insecurity.
Total cognitive independence would mean no unproven assumption we must "depend" on - this is the adolescent dream. Our own minds do not depend on the universe. It can totally grasp it from the outside.
But as beings that "grow out of" this Cosmos we are radically connected to it and dependent on it - and once you mature you grasp this is no bad thing, but is to be connected to the source of life and vitality itself.
Glad you're still enjoying Mcgilchrist!
I myself have not fully finished him either - there is so much, and it is so rich and wide ranging.Replies: @Barbarossa, @silviosilver
I think that you and I have been making the same point in somewhat different ways. Science and religion are both frameworks to describe reality. Neither is a perfect framework and language and are often corrupted and incomplete and prone to misunderstandings.
It doesn’t mean that either is useless, outmoded, or wrong, but a over-reliance on one framework at the expense of the other will lead to distortions and absurdities.
In the end there is only Reality, which persists whether we acknowledge it or not, and which is fundamentally un-graspable in it’s totality because it exceeds the human mind’s ability to contextualize and grasp. It is quite literally outside of our frame of reference.
As you mention, certainty in any sense is a symptom of a childish mindset. I try to constantly question and interrogate my preconceptions. I hope I never stop that process, since without it I will be hopelessly trapped in my own limitations and those of my prior assumptions.
I’ll bet that when Ron reads these sorts of threads, they are the ones out of everything that make him say, “Man, have I got some real weirdos on this site!”
Three examples or four occur to me.
Germany ww1. Hyperinflation hit them very very hard.
In ww1 Russian Empire had inflation as a result of an economy booming during war. The Revolution and over throw of the Czar was at first middle class anger about savings wiped out during war inflation.
Vietnam. The US leaves Gold. Butter and Bullets didn’t work for long as LBJ also doled out goodies to niggers.
I’ve heard that Spain (or rather the Reich) suffered inflation because of extended wars in Netherlands. They say it was Potosi silver, but the wars did them in.
The US effort in ww2 that gained the US 50% of global gdp was an unusual event. Might not be repeated.
The EU isn’t made of money nor is the US.Replies: @Thrax
Giving Ukraine an advantage won’t be nearly as demanding, they may have already achieved parity in artillery and armor. In many cases the US and UK are just facilitating lend-lease arrangements to allow former Warsaw Pact countries to send equipment to Ukraine. I do worry about Poland coping with a defense budget increase while they are also housing a huge refugee population https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/us/politics/us-tanks-ukraine.html
The media has started to shift the narrative towards the reality on the ground:
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/57050650/surprise-surprise-surprise.jpgReplies: @Yevardian, @songbird
Since I haven’t watched any of those war videos and you’ve apparently watched hundreds of them, I have a very simple and naive question. Please excuse my extreme ignorance since I haven’t been following the war in close detail.
Is there any solid evidence that the Ukrainians still have a significant and functioning fixed-wing air force? Is there any solid evidence that they have substantial numbers of surviving tanks that are fueled and operational? I think the pro-Russian claims are that nearly everything on the Ukrainian side has been destroyed, along with lots of the airfields and the fuel supplies.
I don’t doubt that the Ukrainians troops have lots of ATGMs and are able to ambush Russian armor, and I also don’t doubt that they have functioning air defenses, which prevent the Russians from being too aggressive in the air. But if they’ve lost nearly all their air force and operational armored units, it’s difficult to see how they can survive.
I think in one of his interviews Macgregor indicated that the Ukrainians have been very cagey in the videos they release, suggesting that’s because they’re trying to hide the fact that their army no longer exists as an operational military force. Maybe I misunderstood him.
So instead of videos showing a single Russian tank getting blown up, I’m curious whether there are any videos showing sizable Ukrainian tank formations attacking a Russian position, or Ukrainian fighters or bombers doing the same. If not, maybe it’s because they’ve nearly all been destroyed just like the pro-Russian side claims.
Either the Ukrainian military has degraded at a lower rate than has the Russian one, or the type of degradation experienced by the Ukrainian military hasn’t been enough to enable the Russians to win.Replies: @Mikhail
I know you won't like a YouTube video with a talking doll :) But Binkov battleground is simply based on the reliable defense journalist sources. If you listen from 14:40 onwards, he explains an overview of the situation of the Ukrainian air force. https://youtu.be/nbc7299kLOE?t=881
Although according to Pentagon, there may be arriving more functional "warplanes" (MiG-29?) in Ukraine, after spare parts given. (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220420-ukraine-given-parts-not-whole-aircraft-by-allies-pentagon) An issue is lack of targeting pods (and even limited quantity guided weapons), that would allow attack of moving targeting from significant distances.
Ukraine doesn't have so much medium range air defense.
In Libya 2011, French Rafale and British Eurofighter Typhoon, were destroying the moving groups of Libyan soldiers, using targeting pods and guided weapons.
This is not available for Russia, although there were supposed to be the first 8 Su-34 with targeting pods, beginning service only this year (perhaps later this year).
-
Instead, the ground support, is based in Su-25, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-50 helicopters. These are using mainly unguided weapons and need to be in near range.
As a result of their near range, they are vulnerable for MANPADS and Ukraine has received these. They are now flying at greater distances and throwing upwards weapons, to avoid MANPADS.
It is quite repeat of history, as in 1987, were given Stinger MANPADS by CIA.
In this documentary about CIA, they argue at 39:10 the result, was that Su-25 and Mi-8 pilots fly at greater distances to avoid stingers. "The stinger missiles forced Soviet pilots to fly much higher altitudes. Their bombing was less effective".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMCyTAD098E Their air force was certainly not able for this, although this was even before the beginning of the war. (Their most famous attack, was able to destroy oil depot inside Russia by low flying helicopters. )
But tank forces they still seem to exist with Ukraine (with more supplies arriving). There were an unclear but probably interesting (for the military experts) clip recently of a tank used defensively with BTR-80 damaged by it. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/twynap/a_single_ukrainian_tank_engaging_a_large_russian) Because of mud, tanks Russian columns were vulnerable by driving in the roads.Replies: @Dmitry, @Ron Unz
There needs to be a completely separate "homeland" for the SJW Woke. It would be funded by reality TV money. Can you imagine the entertainment value of an episode, The Quest For Avocado Toast !!!. Growing Wheat?!?!? Making Flour?!?!? Avocado Trees?!?!?!
It would be a hit..... Trust Me.....
I am a Hollywood Agent....#LetsGoBrandon 😇Replies: @S
They had one once. It was the early woke autonomous zone called Jonestown. The world should heed Jones favorite message which he kept plastered over his throne, especially when it comes to dealing with the ‘woke’ sort. [And no, that’s not photoshopped in.]
Western Mainstream Narrative
Re: CGTN’s The Hub with Wang Guan
The below linked show provides excellent insight, far superior to exchanges like a not too distant one on Fox News between Condoleezza Rice and Harris Faulkner. Among the highlights are references to the revealing comments from William Burns and Eliot Cohen. I’ve three respectful follow-up points to what Ben Norton said about Western sanctions, regime changing Russia and the origin of the post-Soviet Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Antony Blinken offered the possibility of ending sanctions as part of a Russia-Ukraine settlement. Neocons and neolibs are big on sanctions. Blinken’s comment on the subject serves to bolster the use of sanctions as an influencing factor.
The neocons, neolibs and flat-out Russia haters ideally seek a different kind of government in Russia and wouldn’t be displeased with seeing that country broken up into three or more different entities. At the same time, there’s the matter of reality eventually sinking in – at least for some, upon waiting a good deal of time for a desired result.
As Norton brought up, the 2014 overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected president, happened shortly after he signed a power sharing arrangement with the main opposition – resulting in the objection to that coup in Crimea and Donbass. Two related factors concern:
– the Kiev regime and its Western backers stonewalling the UN approved Minsk Protocol, calling for a negotiated Donbass autonomy within Ukraine (while sanctioning Russia, the West never put any such pressure on the Kiev regime)
– the ongoing war in Donbass between the regime and rebels, before the February 2022 Russian military action.
Not as easy this year: Христос воскрес! – ЩАСЛИВОГО ВЕЛИКОДНЯ! –HAPPY EASTER!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAmnmb1i2-s
- the ongoing war in Donbass between the regime and rebels, before the February 2022 Russian military action.Not as easy this year: Христос воскрес! - ЩАСЛИВОГО ВЕЛИКОДНЯ! -HAPPY EASTER!Replies: @Mikhail
Sorry, here’s that show:
Easter Greetings to Everybody! I’ve always sent a greeting similar to this one to our former impresario Anatoly Karlin. Anatoly, if you’re still reading this blog, take some time off, fighting a war that you’ll never win can be quite tiring and detrimental to your health.
Христос воскрес!
The "war" in your message was maybe a bit much, but then I have always felt that there was something uncomfortably bloody about Easter. A subliminal allusion to human brutality and attempts to overcome it.
It seems as though some EEs want Romania to absorb Moldova and then to assist in an attack on Transnistria. Is Moldova really less different from Romania than Ukraine is from Russia?
Who will pay Ze his billions? And how much will end up in offshore bank accounts?Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail
Very roughly: Moldova is to Romania as East Germany was to West Germany, if the Soviets had managed to impose a Cyrillic alphabet on the East Germans and if East Germany had enough Russian settlers to tip the balance away from immediate reunification.
The original Romanian language had a Cyrillic alphabet – albeit different from the one developed by the Soviets – who were also involved in the development of the modern Ukrainian alphabet. In Soviet times, Moldova was economically better off than Romania. Going back centuries, there was a Moldavian Principality, which included parts of modern day Romania. “Romania” under that name came about in the latter half of the 19th century.
There is no conception of Moldovan identity ever being somehow separate from Romanian. Only reason the Moldova couldn't reunite with Romania was because both countries in 90s were dead broke, and by the 2000s Russia was again strong enough to prevent Moldova from joing Romania, who was then aiming for NATO membership.
@AP Actually I'd say that analogy is more or less exactly correct.
The only part I'd quibble with is nearly all the Russians all left for Transnistria, partially because hardly any of them spoke Romanian, and at the time it seemed Moldova would join Romania, but I suppose the brief armed-conflict also made Romania, already reeling from post-Communist collapse, pretty leery of taking on more problems.Replies: @Mikhail
Is there any solid evidence that the Ukrainians still have a significant and functioning fixed-wing air force? Is there any solid evidence that they have substantial numbers of surviving tanks that are fueled and operational? I think the pro-Russian claims are that nearly everything on the Ukrainian side has been destroyed, along with lots of the airfields and the fuel supplies.
I don't doubt that the Ukrainians troops have lots of ATGMs and are able to ambush Russian armor, and I also don't doubt that they have functioning air defenses, which prevent the Russians from being too aggressive in the air. But if they've lost nearly all their air force and operational armored units, it's difficult to see how they can survive.
I think in one of his interviews Macgregor indicated that the Ukrainians have been very cagey in the videos they release, suggesting that's because they're trying to hide the fact that their army no longer exists as an operational military force. Maybe I misunderstood him.
So instead of videos showing a single Russian tank getting blown up, I'm curious whether there are any videos showing sizable Ukrainian tank formations attacking a Russian position, or Ukrainian fighters or bombers doing the same. If not, maybe it's because they've nearly all been destroyed just like the pro-Russian side claims.Replies: @AP, @Dmitry
How would one explain the facts that Russia was forced to retreat from large areas in the north and east and has compensated with only small gains in the southeast, resulting in it possessing a smaller controlled area now than it did a month ago, if Ukraine’s military has ceased to exist as an operable military force?
Either the Ukrainian military has degraded at a lower rate than has the Russian one, or the type of degradation experienced by the Ukrainian military hasn’t been enough to enable the Russians to win.
Sure, there had also been an independent Prussia based on Berlin once too.
It seems as though some EEs want Romania to absorb Moldova and then to assist in an attack on Transnistria. Is Moldova really less different from Romania than Ukraine is from Russia?
Who will pay Ze his billions? And how much will end up in offshore bank accounts?Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail
Gives fuel to some of the Western punditry, believing the Russians might feel compelled to take Odessa in order to be close to Pridnestrovie (AKA Transnistria and closely related spellings).
Pridnestrovie is roughly 30% each Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan. The Ukrainians in Pridnestiovie are generally like the Ukrainians in Crimea.
Either the Ukrainian military has degraded at a lower rate than has the Russian one, or the type of degradation experienced by the Ukrainian military hasn’t been enough to enable the Russians to win.Replies: @Mikhail
In Donbass, (where most of the fighting has been) the regime side has been losing ground. The Russian ground strength west of the Dnieper has been relatively low in number, giving credence to what Macgregor and Ritter have said about Russia’s actual intent.
A “strategic withdrawal” isn’t necessarily a cover for getting ass kicked. The withdrawal came after the Russians indicated a good feeling about the way negotiations were going. The withdrawal served as a kind of diplomatic bone – which didn’t get reciprocated.
Loss of thousands of vehicles - strategic donation?
Loss of thousands killed - strategic blood sacrifice?Replies: @Mikhail
If instead of listening only to those three American observers (that I also find credible as far as it goes), you spent a little time going through the Telegram channels of some Russians covering the war and actually doing the fighting in Donbass (eg https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com), you would discover that the Russians are struggling to get drones to correct their artillery strikes while the Ukrainians have them at the platoon level, that they are slowly starting to receive them through donations organized by volunteers who buy cheap Chinese Mavic 2 and 3 civilian drones, that some of these deliveries have been stopped by Russian Customs officials at the border with Donbass because they continue operating in their usual bureaucratic way, that the few drones they initially received from military sources were inoperable due to depleted batteries, etc. Then perhaps the Russian performance, slow progress and changes of strategy in this war would start to make more sense to you as well.Replies: @Ron Unz, @Thulean Friend
I don’t think this an accurate take. I never believed Putin had maximalist aims, nor did Ron Unz, but Karlin has repeatedly claimed so. I always claimed, before the invasion and after it, that Putin has limited objectives.
Karlin was right about the invasion and me and Unz were wrong. Yet if Russia was seriously trying to annex the whole of Ukraine, we’d see a completely different war. So Karlin was wrong on Putin’s motivations/objectives.
In the end, it’s a question of method vs outcome.
Is it better to be right on method but wrong on outcome (Karlin) or wrong on method but right on outcome (me and Unz)? I would argue the latter matters far more in the final analysis.
I saw numbers that would indicated a destructive raid driving south sweeping through the north like Chihuviev followed by a rapid exit near Kharkov. Possibly attempting an encirclement of defending Ukrainians there.
The quick coup was a political solution. That type of thing is a separate question. Zelenskyy’s reaction, the reaction of generals, the mood of the capital. Very stochastic.Replies: @Philip Owen
Now it looks obvious to me that there is a lot of information that was hidden, including things about the Russian and Ukrainian militaries that we're learning as we speak, and I just try to find reliable information wherever I can find it.
Ironically, Russian channels are on average much more useful to learn what's going on than Western (let alone Ukrainian) ones.
But perhaps one shouldn't be surprised. This also happened in 2014 and what can one expect after all when European authorities ban TV channels and decide to protect their delicate people's ears from hearing Russian sources? That's what democracy has become in the West: the constant fight to protect people from exposure to the wrong opinions.
That's not to say one shouldn't prognosticate. Why not? It's fun and a good call definitely gives one bragging rights (whether rationally warranted or not).Replies: @Thulean Friend
Losing ~40% of the territory they had controlled was certainly a “strategic” withdrawal meant to stop the bleeding in those areas.
Loss of thousands of vehicles – strategic donation?
Loss of thousands killed – strategic blood sacrifice?
Loss of thousands of vehicles - strategic donation?
Loss of thousands killed - strategic blood sacrifice?Replies: @Mikhail
Nowhere near as great as the Kiev regime losses. West of the Dnieper, the Russians didn’t have the numbers put in place to take Kiev. They did keep the opponent in a quagmire on how to view the situation outside Kiev relative to Donbass, where the bulk of the fighting has been.
The assault on Kiev must have been one of the most expensive 'feints' in history.Replies: @Mikhail
I was right about Donbass being a key determining factor for a Russian move. Another element is the NATO (Western military) presence in Ukraine, which needed addressing from a Russian perspective. Kind of related:
https://www.rt.com/russia/554166-international-law-military-operation-ukraine/
Russia sincerely tried the peace option on Donbass and a new security arrangement with the West.
One reason there would be technical scepticism about a full scale invasion back in February, is that the Russians amassed less than 200,000 men on the border with Ukraine. 200,000 couldn’t have invaded a state bigger than France and overrun the entire place. The Germans in 1940 used 2-3 million troops. Russian would have needed 300,000 or 400,000 to get to places like Lvov.
I saw numbers that would indicated a destructive raid driving south sweeping through the north like Chihuviev followed by a rapid exit near Kharkov. Possibly attempting an encirclement of defending Ukrainians there.
The quick coup was a political solution. That type of thing is a separate question. Zelenskyy’s reaction, the reaction of generals, the mood of the capital. Very stochastic.
Ukraine is 45 million wards of the court now.
When my oldest daughter was about 9 she was learning about WW1 as part of history. After she read about the end of WW1 and the treaty of Versailles, she looked at my wife and said, "But Mom, everyone is so unhappy, isn't their just going to be another war?" To which my wife replied, "Well actually...."
On diversity, a little is not a bad thing since anything which is completely static is dead. However, even if the current flow of humanity and capital produces some short term material benefits resulting from cheap labor and profligate consumption it's sowing the seeds of it's own demise.
As in your European examples it is impossible to have a functional body politic (much less culture) from a mass of people who do not share basic assumptions of how society should work and what the priorities are.
In the US right now there are completely unreconcilable differences between the MAGA and Woke contingents, plus every other peripheral sub-group. I don't really see how accommodating resolution is possible.
Once the bread and circuses of the consumer economy start getting relatively thin (as they already have post-Vid) the differences are going to become a lot more meaningful and stark.
From a cultural standpoint, I would already have argued that the costs of diversity and globalization were impossibly steep, but I think we are approaching a time where even from a purely material level it will look like illusory progress for a poor return.
In the end I think the best days of globalization and multiculturalism are behind us and it's going to time to pay the piper.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa
Ww1 and ww2 span the period of the decline of the British hegemon and the rise of the US hegemon. What we might be seeing here is the decline of the US hegemon and the rise of the Chinese hegemon. If the US and China remain at a sort of parity of force the international system will be pure anarchy for 60 years.
The Brits had enough sense to shutter the Empire in a relatively orderly fashion, when the writing on the wall became clear. The real question is whether the US will demonstrate similar good sense, and pivot in some way to a more sustainable strategic footing. Signs seems to point to the opposite, which will lead to a lot more unnecessary chaos worldwide and an unnecessary amount of damage domestically.
No such comparability really exists between China and the US. Lots of anarchy for decades awaits us all.
A step in the right direction. Looks at those areas in the eastern part of Ukraine, that were most friendly towards the kremlins. What have they got in exchange for their Russian preferences?
Mariupol yesterday and today. Too bad so many of the citizens of Mariupol were butchered by Russian “liberators”, otherwise they would have surely greeted them with bread and salt in the traditional Slavic manner. As it is, the few remaining Maiupolites are holed up afraid to show their heads lest they be chopped off. Putler says “starve them out”. Happy Easter Mr. Putler and the ROC! 🙁
This is what comes of indulging the Tel Aviv Jonestown Subterranean Battalion though. Putin should fly them out to Israel, out of that dank bunker under the steel factory. A couple of El Al jets ought to be enough.
Yes, there were two Romanian kingdoms that lasted for centuries, Valachia and Moldova, briefly united under Stefan the Great. They were kept separate primarily due to interests of local powers. The people in both regions always always referred to themselves as Rumân and their broader region as Rumânia, only foreigners call them Vlachs. The Moldova region was actually the centre of Romanian identity and culture as a whole, Bucharest was a minor village until the 1700s. I’ve never heard anyone claim Romanian identity was invented except Bozgors (local insult for Hungarians).
There is no conception of Moldovan identity ever being somehow separate from Romanian. Only reason the Moldova couldn’t reunite with Romania was because both countries in 90s were dead broke, and by the 2000s Russia was again strong enough to prevent Moldova from joing Romania, who was then aiming for NATO membership.
Actually I’d say that analogy is more or less exactly correct.
The only part I’d quibble with is nearly all the Russians all left for Transnistria, partially because hardly any of them spoke Romanian, and at the time it seemed Moldova would join Romania, but I suppose the brief armed-conflict also made Romania, already reeling from post-Communist collapse, pretty leery of taking on more problems.
https://www.rt.com/russia/554330-uprising-transdniester-donbass-ukraine/
https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1517221465644539909Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/the-awful-truth-is-dawning-putin-may-win-in-ukraine-the-result-would-be-catastrophe
The British were happy enough to concede to the US. Shared history, language, cultural overlap etc some of the leadership in the UK had American mothers or fathers.
No such comparability really exists between China and the US. Lots of anarchy for decades awaits us all.
Don’t you think it does Russian forces a worse disservice to buy that line, rather than that the Russian army simply didn’t expect any serious resistance? I think if Putin had actually expected and prepared for a ‘real’ war with Ukraine like Karlin always wanted, Kiev would have been taken and held by now.
The assault on Kiev must have been one of the most expensive ‘feints’ in history.
Tabloid CNN Mass Graves
In the below video, the aforementioned “former mayor of Mariupol” was Kiev regime appointed and not democratically elected. Kiev regime lie after lie, half-truth after half-truth, they babble on with BS, which Western mass media is prone to accepting.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson (in a segment linked by Ron Unz at this thread) observed that unlike the Russian and rebel forces, the Kiev regime doesn’t seem to have embedded journos with them in battle. You’d think they’d want them there to show off their claimed exploits on the battlefield. Likewise, Western mass media shills for their side.
The assault on Kiev must have been one of the most expensive 'feints' in history.Replies: @Mikhail
I’ve a hard time believing that Russian Intel isn’t as up to snuff as mine. Perhaps they thought there was some chance that the Kiev regime might bounce. It’d nevertheless still be difficult for them to takeover that city with the number of troops they put in the area, thereby leading to my agreement of what Macgregor and Ritter said on the matter.
Ukrainian "small unit" work with Javelin and NLAW was successfully striking the RF position West of Kiev. Presumably, the lower than desired troop count from bad logistics led to a more dispersed deployment.
-- The operation West of Kiev was not a feint.
-- The withdrawal was not an olive branch.
The Russian 'plan' for that section of the front simply did not work.
_______
Another key point:
•• The withdrawal was orderly & unharried.
If the Ukrainian military was 'forcing' the Russians to withdraw, there would have been a fighting retreat for weeks. Ukraine had a golden opportunity to inflict serious losses by pursuing with mechanized infantry and full armor. That did not happen.
The successful Ukrainian "small unit" tactics are effectively slow infantry. Sneaking up to a favourable launch point on foot, or pre placing infantry so that the opposition comes to the "small unit". Neither of these methods works when the opposition is moving the other direction.
How will the Ukrainian military retake defended Russian positions?
They could not even "press" departing units. Pushing the Russians out of Mariopul would require a heavy "offense" across relatively open terrain. It is hard to see how Zelensky can WIN, even with replacement material from the west.
______
There is a serious flash point that is rarely being discussed.
https://eimg.pravda.com/images/doc/d/2/d2da9b9-aff088837b1ccd54783176eebefe5c1e-original.jpg
Otkyabrsk and Kherson share a navigation channel for their ports. And, the mouth of Liman Ribosol routes traffic near Odessa.
If Ukraine and Russian cannot achieve an armistice, how is this part of the Black Sea going to function?
PEACE 😇
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/57050650/surprise-surprise-surprise.jpgReplies: @Yevardian, @songbird
Of course Russia was always going to beat Ukraine militarily. I don’t think anyone here except people totally detached from military reality like Laxa were ever claiming otherwise. The more important question is at what cost, everything Russia has suffered to take just fucking Donbass and Luhansk? I can’t believe that was the plan.
Quite the conundrum we have here.
Maybe: the west Military Industrial Complex is in the same condition the Evil Empire was in 1989 when a flash mob knocked down the Berlin Wall and soon after all the rest came tumbling down?
It isn't completely impossible. It just seems like a reckless gamble but you and I obviously don't have the intelligence agencies' reports so we are just guessing.
If Trump Was Still President
A revealing admission below on who wants war. Not completely sure war would’ve been averted if Trump was still president. Agree that the odds would be better.
Scott Ritter said (on the 4/23 edition of Useful Idiots) that Biden could get reelected and nominated for a Noble Peace Prize, if he were to suddenly tell Zelensky it’s over, no more arms and in turn say to Russia, let’s work this out where Ukraine will be truly neutral and we will establish a new security arrangement for the purpose of bringing peace and prosperity.
The burden of taking alternatives to a full-scale invasion was on Putin. He jumped the gun.
Ditto for Taiwan, military reunification or not.Replies: @Mikhail
According to Anatoly Karlin the Kiev government was going to collapse like a house of cards when a tank group showed up on the horizon or something like that. I can’t believe that was the plan either.
Quite the conundrum we have here.
Maybe: the west Military Industrial Complex is in the same condition the Evil Empire was in 1989 when a flash mob knocked down the Berlin Wall and soon after all the rest came tumbling down?
It isn’t completely impossible. It just seems like a reckless gamble but you and I obviously don’t have the intelligence agencies’ reports so we are just guessing.
So how many real “Nazis” did Putler actually end up finding in Mariupol? Was it worth slaughtering tens of thousands of everyday, russian speaking citizens within Mariupol to uncover these “Nazi” scoundrels? Was it really worth it?
If the EU thought Putin was going to lose would they do this?
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3825797-european-commission-says-eu-companies-can-pay-for-gas-in-rubles
Wake up and smell the coffee folks.
Happy Easter to you too!
The “war” in your message was maybe a bit much, but then I have always felt that there was something uncomfortably bloody about Easter. A subliminal allusion to human brutality and attempts to overcome it.
That’s always the question. The costs have also been very high for Ukraine and for EU economy (and sanity). Wars are like that, this one could have been avoided by an easy compromise: Minsk and no Nato in Ukraine. It will end that way anyway after huge costs. Plus Russia will probably take more because they can, and the “costs”.
What was the cost for Russia of doing nothing? Because that was the alternative, neither Kiev nor Nato were giving an inch in talks.
The reality of war does not fit the ultra nationalist propaganda being pushed by either side.
Logistics thru Belarus to support operations West of Kiev was reported as totally FUBAR. This prevented an increase in the number of troops. I was expecting substantial power to be moved forward. This would be used for a “shock and awe” event. Needless to say that did not happen.
Ukrainian “small unit” work with Javelin and NLAW was successfully striking the RF position West of Kiev. Presumably, the lower than desired troop count from bad logistics led to a more dispersed deployment.
— The operation West of Kiev was not a feint.
— The withdrawal was not an olive branch.
The Russian ‘plan’ for that section of the front simply did not work.
_______
Another key point:
•• The withdrawal was orderly & unharried.
If the Ukrainian military was ‘forcing’ the Russians to withdraw, there would have been a fighting retreat for weeks. Ukraine had a golden opportunity to inflict serious losses by pursuing with mechanized infantry and full armor. That did not happen.
The successful Ukrainian “small unit” tactics are effectively slow infantry. Sneaking up to a favourable launch point on foot, or pre placing infantry so that the opposition comes to the “small unit”. Neither of these methods works when the opposition is moving the other direction.
How will the Ukrainian military retake defended Russian positions?
They could not even “press” departing units. Pushing the Russians out of Mariopul would require a heavy “offense” across relatively open terrain. It is hard to see how Zelensky can WIN, even with replacement material from the west.
______
There is a serious flash point that is rarely being discussed.
Otkyabrsk and Kherson share a navigation channel for their ports. And, the mouth of Liman Ribosol routes traffic near Odessa.
If Ukraine and Russian cannot achieve an armistice, how is this part of the Black Sea going to function?
PEACE 😇
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3825797-european-commission-says-eu-companies-can-pay-for-gas-in-rubles
Wake up and smell the coffee folks.Replies: @Beckow
Sure, but EU issued a memo clarifying that as far as the payers are concerned “the transaction is completed when they deposit euros in the Russian bank” and not when the euros get automatically converted to rubles. Precious.
Brussels took a month to come up with that meaningless correction. The “ruble in the rubble” rate is exactly where it was in January, and a year ago. At this rate the Russian economy could collapse around 2050 – or maybe later.
The Ukrainian economy short of massive ongoing subsidies – Ze is asking for \$7 billion a month – will not make it through the year. If they give Ze the money who will be deciding on “bonuses” and salaries. Hell, just trust Kiev, what do they have to lose?
The German industry will have a choice: go back in time to coal and nuclear, or puff up the virtual money economy with “baristas” and marketing wizards selling dreams everywhere. Too bad that doesn’t fit the German character, but they can learn. Donbas is worth it.
___
The EU is catastrophically broken and dysfunctional at effectively every level.
If Le Pen manages to win, perhaps will that finally lead to the dissolution of the EU? It would also be interesting to hear what advocates of a shared EU Military say.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @Beckow
In thinking it over more, I do think I see a potential flaw in the testing for the other dowser. There are a lot of suppositions attached, but I'll throw it out there for your consideration.
I know that I would not be able to detect a chunk of gas line or electric wire under a cardboard box. The operative thing is for it to be buried in the ground (though there may be exceptions to that, which I would have to test more systematically). As I mentioned earlier, I seem to be able to detect a wide array of things; water pipes full or empty, gas and electric lines in use or defunct, large tree roots, and seemingly graves. It seems a strange assortment and I have done quite a bit of considering in the past as to what the pattern could be.
My "scientific" explanation, or at least the best I can come up with, is as follows...The common denominator seems to be disturbed earth/ a foreign object buried in the earth. We know the earth has an electrical field, we use it all the time in compasses etc. We know the human body and brain has it's own electrical field as well. Perhaps the act of burying something substantial like a line or grave, produces some disturbance in this electrical field, a ripple if you will. When a person holding a pair of L shaped copper wires passes over this ripple their innate electromagnetic field interacts with and amplifies this field disturbance in the earth producing a crossing of the copper wires. I don't know if this explanation is correct, how one would potentially measure such a phenomenon with instrumentation or if such instrumentation even exists, but it seems consistent with my experience and logical enough to pass the smell test.
To get back to our previously tested dowser...He believed that he could detect a cup of water under a cardboard box. I would highly doubt that he can since I would highly suspect that water dowsing may work on a similar principle to my dowsing experience. Basically, ground water; whether a spring, artesian well or aquifer could produce a similar electromagnetic disruption which could be detected by an experienced dowser. A static jug of water under a box would likely produce nada.
My caveat is that I haven't tried to dowse for water since I don't have a well drilling rig to test my guesses anyhow. Around where I am it's not as if finding water is exactly rocket science anyhow. Anywhere you plunk a well is likely to produce and any hole you dig becomes an instant pond. I heard of well drillers around here that do dowse, and I don't doubt that it potentially works, but it's not like the stakes are all that impressive around here.
I believe the tested dowser was from Nevada or Arizona. That would seem to present a much more rigorous environment for someone with that alleged ability and makes him potentially more credible. He may have just been completely wrong about his ability to find water under the testing conditions while perhaps being actually able to find ground water for a well. Again, it's just conjecture since I haven't the foggiest idea about this guy or his track record back where he lives.Replies: @Mikel, @songbird
I didn’t have any firm opinion on dowsing before this conversation started but I’ve been reading a little and it looks like betting against you would be the right move. It seems to be a subject that has been researched quite thoroughly and nobody has proven skill beyond chance under controlled conditions.
Another thought that comes to my mind is that finding underground water can be a very profitable enterprise. I remember from the times I spent in Chile that people there took the matter very seriously. If you find an aquifer you can suddenly turn a worthless piece of arid land in a very lucrative farm, which has led many people to become rich. With the climate they have in central and northern Chile they can grow most any crop, especially off-season fruit for the northern hemisphere. Of course, all the efforts I saw them making to find water is through expensive technology. Some imported Schlumberger devices based on seismic sounding, if my memory doesn’t fail. I did hear people in rural areas talking about their dowsing skills but serious investors don’t seem to pay attention to them.
Your proposed mechanism also sounds questionable to my non-expert ears. We must be talking of very weak electric fields that apparently cannot even be detected instrumentally. They use seismic soundings instead that infer the composition of underground layers through very indirect methods.
However, in this challenge I am on your side. One thing I noticed yesterday is that this looks like a very militant organization of skeptics and I’m sure they are keen on maintaining their record of nobody being able to win their prize. If you get to negotiate a test with them I would advise to be very realistic about what you think you can really do and make sure that the test measures that ability, not anything else. If they are honest and your skill goes beyond what scientific research has proven to be possible (any kind of dowsing) you should be able to find some agreement.
I actually think that we are the sanest group of commenters on his site 🙂 Although, to be fair, Sailer also attracts some good commenters but I have the impression that their discussions tend to end up piling on on the same subjects. They’re not as versatile as here.
I may start by asking someone with a known (not to me) septic system location and start there.
I'm interested personally in how this would turn out under more rigorous conditions since I'd rather be wrong than a fool. It would disappointing to know that I was laboring under a mistaken assumption now, but I would rather know. All sorts of intelligent people operate under false pretenses and it would be silly to think that I was immune!
As far as my proposed explanation goes, I really haven't the foggiest idea of whether it is even plausible. I build things for a living and while I have good problem solving skills, I do not have any real idea of the potential science involved. I suppose it's a moot point until my supposed ability is proven beyond a reasonable doubt. If we cross that hurdle, I'll get into the nitty gritty of bothering science types for a plausible framework.
I can report that I did get an email back from the CFIG!
Dear Challenger,
We have received your claim of a supernatural or paranormal ability that you believe could win the CFIIG Paranormal Challenge. Thank you for your interest.
All of our staff are volunteers, all are presently working with other applicants. When an investigator becomes available, that person will contact you. Unfortunately, I cannot predict when that will happen. We take people on a first-come, first-served basis, and there are many people on our waiting list.
Please use the ID code in the subject line on all of your communications with us, so we can better keep track of your claim.
If you have any questions about the process, feel free to send me a message.
Sincerely,
Louis Hillman, Ph. D.
CFIIG Challenge Coordinator
Not really very exciting thus far, sadly. I'm on hold. Hmmm. If only I could find a psychic to tell me how long I'll remain on the waiting list....Replies: @Mikel
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/57050650/surprise-surprise-surprise.jpgReplies: @Yevardian, @songbird
Funny how The Guardian is touting its “illustrious” 200 year history, when it supports open borders, which can severely change the nature of a country in less than 20 years.
Hungary made it clear that they were going to continue buying gas from Russia. Realistically, the Hungarian economy cannot continue to function without that supply so not really a “choice”, more of an “inevitability”.
___
The EU is catastrophically broken and dysfunctional at effectively every level.
If Le Pen manages to win, perhaps will that finally lead to the dissolution of the EU? It would also be interesting to hear what advocates of a shared EU Military say.
PEACE 😇
Part of her platform is to give more money to single mothers, which makes me wonder about the ethnic rates of single motherhood in France.Replies: @A123
FWIW, I don’t remember making any predictions here but I did say that Putin wouldn’t invade elsewhere. It looked like the way to bet then.
Now it looks obvious to me that there is a lot of information that was hidden, including things about the Russian and Ukrainian militaries that we’re learning as we speak, and I just try to find reliable information wherever I can find it.
Ironically, Russian channels are on average much more useful to learn what’s going on than Western (let alone Ukrainian) ones.
But perhaps one shouldn’t be surprised. This also happened in 2014 and what can one expect after all when European authorities ban TV channels and decide to protect their delicate people’s ears from hearing Russian sources? That’s what democracy has become in the West: the constant fight to protect people from exposure to the wrong opinions.
In thinking it over more, I do think I see a potential flaw in the testing for the other dowser. There are a lot of suppositions attached, but I'll throw it out there for your consideration.
I know that I would not be able to detect a chunk of gas line or electric wire under a cardboard box. The operative thing is for it to be buried in the ground (though there may be exceptions to that, which I would have to test more systematically). As I mentioned earlier, I seem to be able to detect a wide array of things; water pipes full or empty, gas and electric lines in use or defunct, large tree roots, and seemingly graves. It seems a strange assortment and I have done quite a bit of considering in the past as to what the pattern could be.
My "scientific" explanation, or at least the best I can come up with, is as follows...The common denominator seems to be disturbed earth/ a foreign object buried in the earth. We know the earth has an electrical field, we use it all the time in compasses etc. We know the human body and brain has it's own electrical field as well. Perhaps the act of burying something substantial like a line or grave, produces some disturbance in this electrical field, a ripple if you will. When a person holding a pair of L shaped copper wires passes over this ripple their innate electromagnetic field interacts with and amplifies this field disturbance in the earth producing a crossing of the copper wires. I don't know if this explanation is correct, how one would potentially measure such a phenomenon with instrumentation or if such instrumentation even exists, but it seems consistent with my experience and logical enough to pass the smell test.
To get back to our previously tested dowser...He believed that he could detect a cup of water under a cardboard box. I would highly doubt that he can since I would highly suspect that water dowsing may work on a similar principle to my dowsing experience. Basically, ground water; whether a spring, artesian well or aquifer could produce a similar electromagnetic disruption which could be detected by an experienced dowser. A static jug of water under a box would likely produce nada.
My caveat is that I haven't tried to dowse for water since I don't have a well drilling rig to test my guesses anyhow. Around where I am it's not as if finding water is exactly rocket science anyhow. Anywhere you plunk a well is likely to produce and any hole you dig becomes an instant pond. I heard of well drillers around here that do dowse, and I don't doubt that it potentially works, but it's not like the stakes are all that impressive around here.
I believe the tested dowser was from Nevada or Arizona. That would seem to present a much more rigorous environment for someone with that alleged ability and makes him potentially more credible. He may have just been completely wrong about his ability to find water under the testing conditions while perhaps being actually able to find ground water for a well. Again, it's just conjecture since I haven't the foggiest idea about this guy or his track record back where he lives.Replies: @Mikel, @songbird
I’ve seen a bit of dousing myself, as a preliminary to someone metal detecting.
I wouldn’t say that I am a believer, but it seems as rational a technique as any, if you are metal detecting for fun, and not with a systematic approach of small grids.
Anyway, I suspect that there is not much buried treasure in the US, when you get far inland. From what I heard, people on farms in the North around the mountains were pretty hard up, and did a lot of bartering. I’ve heard of some treasures, like from Rogers’ Rangers raid into Quebec and the lost pay of the Benedict Arnold’s expedition to capture Quebec (which some believe was actually found by people who bought up a lot of land at the time), but they seem few and far between.
___
The EU is catastrophically broken and dysfunctional at effectively every level.
If Le Pen manages to win, perhaps will that finally lead to the dissolution of the EU? It would also be interesting to hear what advocates of a shared EU Military say.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @Beckow
Her current position is reportedly a similar approach to Orban. I.e. staying in it, in order to try to reform it.
Part of her platform is to give more money to single mothers, which makes me wonder about the ethnic rates of single motherhood in France.
Fully dissolving the EU is a very different from a single country exit. It is a much more practical as it does not leave a malign EU in play to target a single exiter. I hope there is something more nuanced in her proposal that avoids funding non-indigenous Islamists.
PEACE 😇
Maybe, that was all politics. Though, to the Anglophone world, I'm not so sure the differences would be considered small. Anyway, I've never pretended to a knowledge of Romanian, and my comment was meant partly to solicit opinions. (though preferably from primary speakers)
But, for me, linguistics is an interesting sideshow to the way that people on both sides want to redraw the borders of Ukraine's Western neighbors. At present, it is hard for me to see how any of these re-draws would work.
Moldova seems dirt poor, would the Romanians really want it? And annexing bits of territory from Western Ukraine would require armies of Poles and Romanians to march in, which would probably bring sanctions. I don't think they are inclined to do it.Replies: @silviosilver
I am partly Vlach, and supposedly I could speak it a bit as a child, though I have only the vaguest recollections of this. I only know about it because my parents tell me I would sometimes say things in Vlach.
I attended a Vlach cultural event in Macedonian once, in which Vlachs from Greece were participating. Friends told me the Greek Vlachs spoke it so differently it was hard to understand them. And yet these same friends claimed to have “no problem” linguistically getting by during a summer trip to Constanta (Romania).
I’m no expert, but I would bet that the differences in varieties of Vlach are much smaller than the differences between Vlach and Romanian, so what is claimed as a big or small difference in languages is highly contextual.
Officially the Romanian language has at least 3 or 4 dialects ( most speakers: Daco-Romanian spoken north of the Danube)
From Wikipedia:
... Romanian linguists, who regard Daco-Romanian, Aromanian, Megleno-Romanian, and Istro-Romanian as "dialects" of a single Romanian language.
Romanian linguists have adopted the French- and German-language usage of the term "dialect", as opposed to English-language usage.
Within Daco-Romanians there are different "Grai" minor provincial differences.
I could read Vlah fairy-tales
( PERICLE PAPAHAGI - PARMITI ARMANESHTI. BASME AROMANE SI GLOSAR AROMANI)
only in Daco-Romanian Translation.
Concerning Moldova: In 1812 Russia got from the Ottomans more than half of Moldavia (Basasarabia) then under Turkish suzerainty.
It is known today as the country of Moldova.
The princedoms of Moldavia and Valahia united in 1859 and and this union is the basis of Romania.
Daco_Romanian (whether Valahian or Moldavian)was written in 1811 with Church_Savonic alphabet enriched with letters representing Romanian sounds). Romania eventually migrated to the Latin alphabet Moldova kept the old Slavonic alphabet.Between 1918 and 1944 Moldova (Bassarabia) was part of Romania. speaking Daco-Romanian, writing Latin letters.
The Soviet Union "liberated" it in 1944, named it Moldova, reintroduced a Slavic alphabet (most likely different from the 1811 Moldavian one) and replacing modern words with archaic Moldavian.
I remember the fun I had reading the funny Romanian used by that daily newspaper "молдова сочиалистэ"
Somebody in front of flatscreen far away truly may not be mentally capable to grasp the difference, but inhabitant of a whole city in the line of artillery/tank/aviation fire would change his position in a heartbeat if he could with those mentioned cities where just several districts where experiencing some civilian rioting.
I would argue that both are cases of little more than ego gratification, and that even in the case of being “right” there is woefully insufficient evidence to for anyone to conclude that the correctness of the call was more a result of skill than of simple luck.
That’s not to say one shouldn’t prognosticate. Why not? It’s fun and a good call definitely gives one bragging rights (whether rationally warranted or not).
Part of her platform is to give more money to single mothers, which makes me wonder about the ethnic rates of single motherhood in France.Replies: @A123
No country in the current EuroZone can exit the joint EU/EZ. While Orban is not trapped by the EZ, why would he give up Hungary’s veto by leaving?
Fully dissolving the EU is a very different from a single country exit. It is a much more practical as it does not leave a malign EU in play to target a single exiter.
I hope there is something more nuanced in her proposal that avoids funding non-indigenous Islamists.
PEACE 😇
That's not to say one shouldn't prognosticate. Why not? It's fun and a good call definitely gives one bragging rights (whether rationally warranted or not).Replies: @Thulean Friend
Probably true, for one-offs. Which is why you need to look for a broader pattern.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-isnt-going-to-make-it/
Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂
Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
Yes! But it’s also a way to keep you honest, especially if you do it publicly. And it helps testing your world view with what actually happens, both in terms of method as well as outcome.
____
The backlog at Los Angeles & Long Beach ports is down to about 40 vessels. It was over 100 last Thanksgiving.
However, America is not yet in the clear. A Union contract covering the entire west coast has a July 1 expiration date. The progressive/socialist SJW fringe is already beginning to agitate for destructive behaviour: (2) SJW economic destruction headed into the midterms. Hard to fathom, yet, There it is!
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/number-containerships-waiting-chinese-ports-doubles
(2) https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/labor-negotiations-looming-at-west-coast-ports/
If you win the gamble, then you can attain a dopamine hit, by saying you have psychic ability. If you lose the gamble, you can not worry, because there is no money lost. If you use the same time, to actually study topic (e.g. war, politics), then you could post something interesting about it and reduce clutter to the information space. But ADD people will not be having fun by posting about topics where they do not understand. It reminds of football fans gambling for predictions. Football fans have no relation to the movement of the ball and their problem is passivity to the game, but they can try to feel more connected, by gambling about outcomes. Interesting comments about football, however, are only from people who carefully study football. This requires attention span, however. If you remember in this forum, we used to talk about the football. Only interesting writer about football in the forum, was Gerard, as he seemed to read carefully about the topic. Like developing any interesting contribution, it requires attention span and thoughtfulness however, as you need to study. It also benefits with contemplative thoughts, that requires some minimums of self-discipline.
China might be goaded to make the same strategic mistake Putin made that swings economic projections far downward. The last death wish of the US is grabbing their superpower competitors to sink together, to go economically Samson, so no one can truly dominates in the future multipolar world.
Ideas rule the world, and all bloodshed are for ideas. The most alpha and sigma of ideologies win in the end.
In Cryptonomicon Enoch Root lectures Waterhouse that WWII was Nazis who worshiped Ares v. Anglos who worshiped Athena. Idealistic hindsight?
Maybe it would help for us to elevate the class of our cope!
A revealing admission below on who wants war. Not completely sure war would've been averted if Trump was still president. Agree that the odds would be better.
Scott Ritter said (on the 4/23 edition of Useful Idiots) that Biden could get reelected and nominated for a Noble Peace Prize, if he were to suddenly tell Zelensky it's over, no more arms and in turn say to Russia, let's work this out where Ukraine will be truly neutral and we will establish a new security arrangement for the purpose of bringing peace and prosperity.
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1517807790605148161Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Whoever is the president of the US, a conference on Ukraine and NATO is always the best way to delimitate where each side’s interest are. War is an often avoidable extension to diplomacy.
The burden of taking alternatives to a full-scale invasion was on Putin. He jumped the gun.
Ditto for Taiwan, military reunification or not.
The CCP’s self infected economic collapse continues to accelerate, 100% without U.S. government action. (1)
Hopefully, U.S. firms are taking steps to rapidly diversify their supply chains away from inherently unreliable PRC sources.
____
The backlog at Los Angeles & Long Beach ports is down to about 40 vessels. It was over 100 last Thanksgiving.
However, America is not yet in the clear. A Union contract covering the entire west coast has a July 1 expiration date. The progressive/socialist SJW fringe is already beginning to agitate for destructive behaviour: (2)
SJW economic destruction headed into the midterms. Hard to fathom, yet, There it is!
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/number-containerships-waiting-chinese-ports-doubles
(2) https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/labor-negotiations-looming-at-west-coast-ports/
No, no, you don't have to give up your assumptions.
We can't actually live without some assumptions :)
You just have to hold them "lightly", not take them so seriously - recognize they are symbols of an ungraspeable reality.
There is this idea that logic and science is of a radically different order of knowledge, and more certain - but when you realize that at the heart of it lies unproven assumptions, the spell is broken :)
And suddenly, the world in all it's richness is restored to you - which we lost at the beginning of modernity in our desire to be "tough minded".
Adolescence is characterized by trying to be "tough" and "adult" - you reject your family and community and strike out alone to prove yourself etc.
Then when you get older and more mature you are able to return to family and community without feeling you need prove how "tough" you are anymore.
You're strong and independent enough to no longer be threatened by social ties etc.
So too when we are ready to grow up and no longer need to prove how "tough" we are we can accept that the quest for certainty, for total cognitive independence, was childish insecurity.
Total cognitive independence would mean no unproven assumption we must "depend" on - this is the adolescent dream. Our own minds do not depend on the universe. It can totally grasp it from the outside.
But as beings that "grow out of" this Cosmos we are radically connected to it and dependent on it - and once you mature you grasp this is no bad thing, but is to be connected to the source of life and vitality itself.
Glad you're still enjoying Mcgilchrist!
I myself have not fully finished him either - there is so much, and it is so rich and wide ranging.Replies: @Barbarossa, @silviosilver
I already do take them “lightly,” if that is understood to mean: a simplifying but useful and highly reliable overlay on reality, but which do not necessarily describe Ultimate Reality itself.
So if by “certainty” you mean an insistence that yes, we really do understand the underlying reality of things, then you may (or may not) be right about what modernity thinks, but you would not be right about me, personally.
I don’t really care very much about ‘ultimate reality’ or ‘the ultimate truth.’ At least not in this life. Though I admit it can be exciting to think that, if there’s a God, one of the things to look forward to in the afterlife is having this ‘ultimate truth’ revealed to us (whatever the hell that might mean).
Was it merely a desire to be “tough” that led some to jettison prayer in favor of penicillin? In my view, the decision was based on a preference for ideas that work more reliably, rather than “toughness” for its own sake.
And of course one man’s richness may be another man’s superstitious idiocy. When we abandon, or radically downgrade, rationality and objectivity, then my fear is we open the door to all sorts of completely unfounded stupidity: telekinesis, pyramid power, healing crystals, Raelians; all of which draw succor from the notion that objectivity itself rests on unproven assumptions.
Finally, to answer a question you put to me earlier, whether it is “reasonable” to believe that light can be both a wave and a particle. I would have to answer yes, it is. It is reasonable to believe it because there is good evidence to support it. (Of course, most people, including me, accept that evidence on the authority of physicists, rather than because of having individually understood it – though this, too, is a reasonable thing to do.)
PEACE 😇
Like - you don't care about ultimate truths, but are you reproducing the implicit metaphysics of modernity? So implicit that you don't see them?
Does all behavior and life imply a metaphysics?
And - things that contradict reason are rational if they nevertheless seem to work. Yes! And this is one way out of the trap of modernity - reason itself tells you it's rational to contradict it.
But I am right now embarking on a "mental fast" so to speak, where I am for a while avoiding all discursive analytical thought and philosophy and argument, and focusing only on experience - poetry, art, novels, and Nature excursions.
So I shall have to return to this important and interesting conversation later.
I don't know how long I'm taking a break from discursive thought and logic and analysis etc - I'm playing it by ear. And I might post a bit about my experience of the novel I'm reading.
The Taoists had this concept of the mental fast, and so did the mystics - it is surely correct and true. I'm gonna post more about that later too.
Barbarossa - also in response to your post - I agree largely with what you said, and would like to expand, but for the moment I'm in time out.
For the time being all you charterers on this site continue to chatter the Great Chatter :)Replies: @A123, @Seraphim, @silviosilver
The expected bad news is beginning to arrive from France (1)
I wish I could say I was surprised. However, Le Pen’s leftward swing foretold poor turnout from genuine Populists. Zemmour had a much better chance at beating Macron.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-2022-live-blog/
Aromanian (Vlah) can be understood by top educated Romanians only by means of a dictionary.
Officially the Romanian language has at least 3 or 4 dialects ( most speakers: Daco-Romanian spoken north of the Danube)
From Wikipedia:
… Romanian linguists, who regard Daco-Romanian, Aromanian, Megleno-Romanian, and Istro-Romanian as “dialects” of a single Romanian language.
Romanian linguists have adopted the French- and German-language usage of the term “dialect”, as opposed to English-language usage.
Within Daco-Romanians there are different “Grai” minor provincial differences.
I could read Vlah fairy-tales
( PERICLE PAPAHAGI – PARMITI ARMANESHTI. BASME AROMANE SI GLOSAR AROMANI)
only in Daco-Romanian Translation.
Concerning Moldova: In 1812 Russia got from the Ottomans more than half of Moldavia (Basasarabia) then under Turkish suzerainty.
It is known today as the country of Moldova.
The princedoms of Moldavia and Valahia united in 1859 and and this union is the basis of Romania.
Daco_Romanian (whether Valahian or Moldavian)was written in 1811 with Church_Savonic alphabet enriched with letters representing Romanian sounds). Romania eventually migrated to the Latin alphabet Moldova kept the old Slavonic alphabet.Between 1918 and 1944 Moldova (Bassarabia) was part of Romania. speaking Daco-Romanian, writing Latin letters.
The Soviet Union “liberated” it in 1944, named it Moldova, reintroduced a Slavic alphabet (most likely different from the 1811 Moldavian one) and replacing modern words with archaic Moldavian.
I remember the fun I had reading the funny Romanian used by that daily newspaper “молдова сочиалистэ”
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-2022-live-blog/Replies: @sudden death
Proputinist naked political prostitution became quite toxic, hopefully this will be start of the trend in Western world.
Realistically, the French election had very little to do with Ukraine and Russia. There were much larger issues at play. So, your hope for IslamoPutin toxic victories is unlikely to be fulfilled.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1599975/emmanuel-Macron-news-French-President-Putin-russia-ukraine-war-nile-gardinerReplies: @sudden death
Not a good sign for the future political alignment of these Ukrainian refugees.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader
There is no conception of Moldovan identity ever being somehow separate from Romanian. Only reason the Moldova couldn't reunite with Romania was because both countries in 90s were dead broke, and by the 2000s Russia was again strong enough to prevent Moldova from joing Romania, who was then aiming for NATO membership.
@AP Actually I'd say that analogy is more or less exactly correct.
The only part I'd quibble with is nearly all the Russians all left for Transnistria, partially because hardly any of them spoke Romanian, and at the time it seemed Moldova would join Romania, but I suppose the brief armed-conflict also made Romania, already reeling from post-Communist collapse, pretty leery of taking on more problems.Replies: @Mikhail
Of possible interest:
https://www.rt.com/russia/554330-uprising-transdniester-donbass-ukraine/
Macron’s Proputinist (hopefully not naked) political prostitution has delivered victory (1)
Therefore, you hope that Pro-Putin toxic victories become a trend in the Western world?
Realistically, the French election had very little to do with Ukraine and Russia. There were much larger issues at play. So, your hope for IslamoPutin toxic victories is unlikely to be fulfilled.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1599975/emmanuel-Macron-news-French-President-Putin-russia-ukraine-war-nile-gardiner
2022 has not been a kind year for the “multipolar world” types. I’ve half-joked that Pepe Escobar should be put on suicide watch.
If Putin were to completely lose his mind and call for a general conscription in the Ukraine war, or to seriously attempt to annex all of Ukraine, then Russia would be committing a catastrophic and irreversible error on a scale which you’d have to go back 100 years if not more to find an equivalent of.
I still cling to the idea that Putin is a rational man and I’ve generally dismissed reports of him described as “isolated, emotional” as Western propaganda. But you never know. Maybe he does want to go out with a bang and bet it all on the house. Russia has a very chaotic history and is not short on gamblers. Putin has not been reckless or stupid ruler for his entire reign thus far, so I don’t see why he should turn into one overnight now… but humans are not easily predictable.
For China, the 2020 border invasion was a cardinal error and now their self-sabotage vis-a-vis Covid should temper people’s expectations of some “Chinese century”. China will be powerful, but it will never reach the zenith of power that the US achieved during the so-called unipolar moment, and they are proving us why in real time as I write this.
That was not accurate, because he was not posting on our forum anymore.
At this time, he has exited our forum, we were unmoderated. But actually he abandoned us and uses Twitter now instead of this forum to post. If you see the Twitter, you can see when the BBC and New York Times were saying there would be invasion. About being a “nostradamus” about world news topics, is like “play stupid games win stupid prizes”. At the same time on the forum, we were discussing about kale, bicycle paths and things like that.
It is coin flipping, way to add more clutter to the information space about world news events, for netizens with ADD.
If you win the gamble, then you can attain a dopamine hit, by saying you have psychic ability. If you lose the gamble, you can not worry, because there is no money lost.
If you use the same time, to actually study topic (e.g. war, politics), then you could post something interesting about it and reduce clutter to the information space. But ADD people will not be having fun by posting about topics where they do not understand.
It reminds of football fans gambling for predictions. Football fans have no relation to the movement of the ball and their problem is passivity to the game, but they can try to feel more connected, by gambling about outcomes.
Interesting comments about football, however, are only from people who carefully study football. This requires attention span, however. If you remember in this forum, we used to talk about the football.
Only interesting writer about football in the forum, was Gerard, as he seemed to read carefully about the topic. Like developing any interesting contribution, it requires attention span and thoughtfulness however, as you need to study. It also benefits with contemplative thoughts, that requires some minimums of self-discipline.
The burden of taking alternatives to a full-scale invasion was on Putin. He jumped the gun.
Ditto for Taiwan, military reunification or not.Replies: @Mikhail
As a matter of record, he peacefully sought the peace option for years. Had he not attacked, the NATOization in Ukraine increases along with the neo-Nazi element.
I know you want the US to lose to rescue Europe from Atlanticism. Me too, but by punching Ukraine, Russia is losing even the level of support from India and China in fear of losing trade links with the West. There are neo-Nazi elements in Wagner too. And a few Nazi policies e.g. industrial policies and natalism are on the net positive for the German ethnicity they were targeted at - smart people adopt them under different guises and dumb people signal opposition, like the ideological establishment in Russia.Replies: @Mikhail
Realistically, the French election had very little to do with Ukraine and Russia. There were much larger issues at play. So, your hope for IslamoPutin toxic victories is unlikely to be fulfilled.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1599975/emmanuel-Macron-news-French-President-Putin-russia-ukraine-war-nile-gardinerReplies: @sudden death
Absolutely yes, as long as those “toxic pro-putinists” keep sending heavy weaponry and provide training for Ukrainian defenders against putler war of aggression 😉
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-04-22-22/h_fd2a736e6138691121be407db1b40888?fbclid=IwAR1vXn2pr3cqQEG293UtvOxxXoKTFrsNesZEQSTZ029Ho5CxS7IxzntOoQQ
As I pointed out above, Ukraine lacks mechanized infantry and full armor needed to pursue withdrawing forces or mount a credible offensive. IslamoMacron may be sending the best that France has to offer... However, it is a tactically useless gesture -- No doubt pre-approved by your IslamoPutin.
It is good to know that you exist to serve your IslamoPutin. Please, keep exposing your adoration of toxic victory.
PEACE 😇
In the final analysis, once WMD use by both sides come into picture, it’s hard to tell who made fatal mistakes. China should better sit everything out and become the top dog when the irradiated dust settles.
The border skirmishes are a mistake brought on by foolish commanders on both sides, but invasions and now lockdowns serve much larger strategic purposes: create chasms between the West and Russia/China that successors can’t start to heal, because they (and Trumpists) understand the coming world to be closed systems co-existing alongside each other.
These are gradual processes that aren’t irreversible, and Russia picked this year for their imperial ambitions. If you think this war is for deterring NATO he could have acted a year or 2 earlier when Ze isn’t yet secure in his position.
I know you want the US to lose to rescue Europe from Atlanticism. Me too, but by punching Ukraine, Russia is losing even the level of support from India and China in fear of losing trade links with the West.
There are neo-Nazi elements in Wagner too. And a few Nazi policies e.g. industrial policies and natalism are on the net positive for the German ethnicity they were targeted at – smart people adopt them under different guises and dumb people signal opposition, like the ideological establishment in Russia.
Is there any solid evidence that the Ukrainians still have a significant and functioning fixed-wing air force? Is there any solid evidence that they have substantial numbers of surviving tanks that are fueled and operational? I think the pro-Russian claims are that nearly everything on the Ukrainian side has been destroyed, along with lots of the airfields and the fuel supplies.
I don't doubt that the Ukrainians troops have lots of ATGMs and are able to ambush Russian armor, and I also don't doubt that they have functioning air defenses, which prevent the Russians from being too aggressive in the air. But if they've lost nearly all their air force and operational armored units, it's difficult to see how they can survive.
I think in one of his interviews Macgregor indicated that the Ukrainians have been very cagey in the videos they release, suggesting that's because they're trying to hide the fact that their army no longer exists as an operational military force. Maybe I misunderstood him.
So instead of videos showing a single Russian tank getting blown up, I'm curious whether there are any videos showing sizable Ukrainian tank formations attacking a Russian position, or Ukrainian fighters or bombers doing the same. If not, maybe it's because they've nearly all been destroyed just like the pro-Russian side claims.Replies: @AP, @Dmitry
Ukraine never has not much significant air force, and even less now.
I know you won’t like a YouTube video with a talking doll 🙂 But Binkov battleground is simply based on the reliable defense journalist sources. If you listen from 14:40 onwards, he explains an overview of the situation of the Ukrainian air force.
Although according to Pentagon, there may be arriving more functional “warplanes” (MiG-29?) in Ukraine, after spare parts given. (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220420-ukraine-given-parts-not-whole-aircraft-by-allies-pentagon)
An issue is lack of targeting pods (and even limited quantity guided weapons), that would allow attack of moving targeting from significant distances.
Ukraine doesn’t have so much medium range air defense.
In Libya 2011, French Rafale and British Eurofighter Typhoon, were destroying the moving groups of Libyan soldiers, using targeting pods and guided weapons.
This is not available for Russia, although there were supposed to be the first 8 Su-34 with targeting pods, beginning service only this year (perhaps later this year).
–
Instead, the ground support, is based in Su-25, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-50 helicopters. These are using mainly unguided weapons and need to be in near range.
As a result of their near range, they are vulnerable for MANPADS and Ukraine has received these. They are now flying at greater distances and throwing upwards weapons, to avoid MANPADS.
It is quite repeat of history, as in 1987, were given Stinger MANPADS by CIA.
In this documentary about CIA, they argue at 39:10 the result, was that Su-25 and Mi-8 pilots fly at greater distances to avoid stingers. “The stinger missiles forced Soviet pilots to fly much higher altitudes. Their bombing was less effective”.
Their air force was certainly not able for this, although this was even before the beginning of the war. (Their most famous attack, was able to destroy oil depot inside Russia by low flying helicopters. )
But tank forces they still seem to exist with Ukraine (with more supplies arriving). There were an unclear but probably interesting (for the military experts) clip recently of a tank used defensively with BTR-80 damaged by it. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/twynap/a_single_ukrainian_tank_engaging_a_large_russian) Because of mud, tanks Russian columns were vulnerable by driving in the roads.
This is a similar rate as currently if we believe Oryx claims (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html ), where the most vulnerable will be Mi-8, Ka-50 and Su-25. These are because of their need to fly at near range, being targeted by MANPADS. There is the claim at 0:55 for the war in Afghanistan, after the CIA introduce stinger missiles there. Ground support aircraft of Su-25, Mi-8 are repeating history by with this vulnerability. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJaZtAYM9KU At the same time, not so far from 40 years later, the lesson was not learned, or repetition avoided by introducing targeting pods to the strike fighters.
And by your analogy, the Ukrainians are fighting the sort of guerrilla warfare that the Afghans had used against the Soviets. That pretty much corresponds to the hypothesis that the regular Ukrainian army has already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated. It sounds like you're saying that the most notable evidence of Ukrainian armor in operation is this one clip of a single Ukrainian tank attacking a Russian convoy.
But the Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, and if there's only this clip of a single tank currently in combat, that leaves me suspicious that the Russian claims are mostly correct and nearly all the Ukrainian armored forces have already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated due to lack of fuel.
So the Russians have claimed that they've already destroyed or incapacitated nearly all of Ukraine's air and armored units, and despite the massive barrage of Ukrainian propaganda, they haven't provided any solid evidence that those claims are false. Instead of Tweeting possibly fake videos of individual destroyed Russian tanks, why don't they provide a video of 30 Ukrainian tanks launching a powerful counter-attack?
Meanwhile, I've only watched the beginning of this new Scott Ritter interview from a couple of days ago, but he's still saying that the Russians have effectively won the war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HI_26aU-c&t=90s
Winning a war is a pretty objectively verifiable result. I just don't see why Ritter would be still making these claims until he believed they were probably true. It's not like making bold predictions about what the global temperature will be like in 50 years.Replies: @Dmitry
You’re celebrating a Macron victory?
Not a good sign for the future political alignment of these Ukrainian refugees.
And apart from that, suddendeath is also wrong on the facts. Le Pen did significantly better than last time and unless polls before the election were wrong Macron was basically just saved by the huge cohort of boomers. Combined with ethnic voting (very strong Muslim support for Melenchon in the first round) this might indicate that French politics will become increasingly polarized and unstable over the next 2-3 decades. Nothing to indicate in any case that the election was determined by Ukraine/Russia.Replies: @songbird, @AP
ROTFL
So… Your personal deities, IslamoMacron & IslamoPutin are sending unarmored, self propelled artillery to Ukraine?
As I pointed out above, Ukraine lacks mechanized infantry and full armor needed to pursue withdrawing forces or mount a credible offensive. IslamoMacron may be sending the best that France has to offer… However, it is a tactically useless gesture — No doubt pre-approved by your IslamoPutin.
It is good to know that you exist to serve your IslamoPutin. Please, keep exposing your adoration of toxic victory.
PEACE 😇
I know you won't like a YouTube video with a talking doll :) But Binkov battleground is simply based on the reliable defense journalist sources. If you listen from 14:40 onwards, he explains an overview of the situation of the Ukrainian air force. https://youtu.be/nbc7299kLOE?t=881
Although according to Pentagon, there may be arriving more functional "warplanes" (MiG-29?) in Ukraine, after spare parts given. (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220420-ukraine-given-parts-not-whole-aircraft-by-allies-pentagon) An issue is lack of targeting pods (and even limited quantity guided weapons), that would allow attack of moving targeting from significant distances.
Ukraine doesn't have so much medium range air defense.
In Libya 2011, French Rafale and British Eurofighter Typhoon, were destroying the moving groups of Libyan soldiers, using targeting pods and guided weapons.
This is not available for Russia, although there were supposed to be the first 8 Su-34 with targeting pods, beginning service only this year (perhaps later this year).
-
Instead, the ground support, is based in Su-25, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-50 helicopters. These are using mainly unguided weapons and need to be in near range.
As a result of their near range, they are vulnerable for MANPADS and Ukraine has received these. They are now flying at greater distances and throwing upwards weapons, to avoid MANPADS.
It is quite repeat of history, as in 1987, were given Stinger MANPADS by CIA.
In this documentary about CIA, they argue at 39:10 the result, was that Su-25 and Mi-8 pilots fly at greater distances to avoid stingers. "The stinger missiles forced Soviet pilots to fly much higher altitudes. Their bombing was less effective".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMCyTAD098E Their air force was certainly not able for this, although this was even before the beginning of the war. (Their most famous attack, was able to destroy oil depot inside Russia by low flying helicopters. )
But tank forces they still seem to exist with Ukraine (with more supplies arriving). There were an unclear but probably interesting (for the military experts) clip recently of a tank used defensively with BTR-80 damaged by it. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/twynap/a_single_ukrainian_tank_engaging_a_large_russian) Because of mud, tanks Russian columns were vulnerable by driving in the roads.Replies: @Dmitry, @Ron Unz
In another old YouTube documentary, CIA claim that “1 aircraft per day” were lost by stinger in 1987 Afghanistan, equipped to the Mujahideen.
This is a similar rate as currently if we believe Oryx claims (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html ), where the most vulnerable will be Mi-8, Ka-50 and Su-25. These are because of their need to fly at near range, being targeted by MANPADS.
There is the claim at 0:55 for the war in Afghanistan, after the CIA introduce stinger missiles there. Ground support aircraft of Su-25, Mi-8 are repeating history by with this vulnerability.
At the same time, not so far from 40 years later, the lesson was not learned, or repetition avoided by introducing targeting pods to the strike fighters.
I know you won't like a YouTube video with a talking doll :) But Binkov battleground is simply based on the reliable defense journalist sources. If you listen from 14:40 onwards, he explains an overview of the situation of the Ukrainian air force. https://youtu.be/nbc7299kLOE?t=881
Although according to Pentagon, there may be arriving more functional "warplanes" (MiG-29?) in Ukraine, after spare parts given. (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220420-ukraine-given-parts-not-whole-aircraft-by-allies-pentagon) An issue is lack of targeting pods (and even limited quantity guided weapons), that would allow attack of moving targeting from significant distances.
Ukraine doesn't have so much medium range air defense.
In Libya 2011, French Rafale and British Eurofighter Typhoon, were destroying the moving groups of Libyan soldiers, using targeting pods and guided weapons.
This is not available for Russia, although there were supposed to be the first 8 Su-34 with targeting pods, beginning service only this year (perhaps later this year).
-
Instead, the ground support, is based in Su-25, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-50 helicopters. These are using mainly unguided weapons and need to be in near range.
As a result of their near range, they are vulnerable for MANPADS and Ukraine has received these. They are now flying at greater distances and throwing upwards weapons, to avoid MANPADS.
It is quite repeat of history, as in 1987, were given Stinger MANPADS by CIA.
In this documentary about CIA, they argue at 39:10 the result, was that Su-25 and Mi-8 pilots fly at greater distances to avoid stingers. "The stinger missiles forced Soviet pilots to fly much higher altitudes. Their bombing was less effective".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMCyTAD098E Their air force was certainly not able for this, although this was even before the beginning of the war. (Their most famous attack, was able to destroy oil depot inside Russia by low flying helicopters. )
But tank forces they still seem to exist with Ukraine (with more supplies arriving). There were an unclear but probably interesting (for the military experts) clip recently of a tank used defensively with BTR-80 damaged by it. (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/twynap/a_single_ukrainian_tank_engaging_a_large_russian) Because of mud, tanks Russian columns were vulnerable by driving in the roads.Replies: @Dmitry, @Ron Unz
It sounds like the fellow has no idea how much of Ukraine’s air force still survives and is operational, so maybe the Russian claims are correct.
And by your analogy, the Ukrainians are fighting the sort of guerrilla warfare that the Afghans had used against the Soviets. That pretty much corresponds to the hypothesis that the regular Ukrainian army has already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated.
It sounds like you’re saying that the most notable evidence of Ukrainian armor in operation is this one clip of a single Ukrainian tank attacking a Russian convoy.
But the Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, and if there’s only this clip of a single tank currently in combat, that leaves me suspicious that the Russian claims are mostly correct and nearly all the Ukrainian armored forces have already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated due to lack of fuel.
So the Russians have claimed that they’ve already destroyed or incapacitated nearly all of Ukraine’s air and armored units, and despite the massive barrage of Ukrainian propaganda, they haven’t provided any solid evidence that those claims are false. Instead of Tweeting possibly fake videos of individual destroyed Russian tanks, why don’t they provide a video of 30 Ukrainian tanks launching a powerful counter-attack?
Meanwhile, I’ve only watched the beginning of this new Scott Ritter interview from a couple of days ago, but he’s still saying that the Russians have effectively won the war:
Winning a war is a pretty objectively verifiable result. I just don’t see why Ritter would be still making these claims until he believed they were probably true. It’s not like making bold predictions about what the global temperature will be like in 50 years.
Some of the incompetent aspects of Ukraine, is why they didn't have established trenches and defensive forts, around Kiev?
But they have been probably correct to not direct fight Russian armor in the first days, and instead use more guerilla warfare concepts like attacking the supply lines. There is not only this clip (there are famous clips of armor in urban war from Azov in Mariupol for example), but this clip shows an example of how they seem to be using the equipment. A single tank was defensively firing against a column of BTR-80 in the road. Presumably the tank is hidden inside one of the buildings before the ambush.
In January, Sky News reported in Donbass. It indicated something about Ukraine's concept for the tanks. That they want to conceal their not many good tanks. The reporter at 1:00 said "the tanks are usually concealed in snowy forest".
https://youtu.be/49yzRjqVSGM?t=63.
It implies they are hiding the tanks in a defensive position and then drive them quickly from cover, for ambush. It's possible this has been claimed (as I'm not watching the military presentations). But from what I watched of main media in Russia, I haven't heard them saying Ukraine's forces are mostly destroyed yet. Some of the media seems to me told to be preparing for a longer war unfortunately. It depends what is the objective of the war which had been believed before the beginning, or which what at least be presented after. If the objective is just to occupy Mariupol, it would be possible to say there is victory next week probably. If the objective was Kiev? I'm not sure how objectively can be stated by politicians. But the historians will need to know what the original objectives had been.
If you look at Putin's speech in 24 February, he gives not precise objective at all. It's available in English here. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
"The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation."
Although in February 25 he seemed to imply more ambitious objective. Although it is not said in direct way either.
"I am appealing to the military of the armed forces of Ukraine. Do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, wives and elders as a live shield. Take power into your own hands. It seems it will be easier for us to come to terms with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis that have settled in Kiev and that have taken the Ukrainian people hostage."
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67851Replies: @Ron Unz
Not a good sign for the future political alignment of these Ukrainian refugees.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader
Do you understand accelerationism?
Do you want to offer a non-standard, shill definition of "accelerationism" that excludes CCP acceleration?
PEACE 😇Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
70,000 out of 190,000 (The whole Eastern and Central Military Districts plus airborne) invaded the North. 35,000 retired in usable order the biggest losses probably being frostbite and trenchfoot. That was not a feint or a negotiating gesture. Putin listed too many intents. Denazification appeared to be the Northern one. Yanukovich was warmed up and waiting.
I saw numbers that would indicated a destructive raid driving south sweeping through the north like Chihuviev followed by a rapid exit near Kharkov. Possibly attempting an encirclement of defending Ukrainians there.
The quick coup was a political solution. That type of thing is a separate question. Zelenskyy’s reaction, the reaction of generals, the mood of the capital. Very stochastic.Replies: @Philip Owen
The original scenario planning described in the Third Empire by Mikhail Yuriev thought 120,000 men would be enough to take Novorossiya up to Odesa. This assumed strong local support (obviously not forthcoming) and a maskirova operation before hand to secure strategic positions.
My money is on Turkey being the big winner of this war. Iran as follower up.
Yes. CCP Elites ate accelerating the PRC to a catastrophic & dystopian future. Thus, the CCP is accelerationist.
Do you want to offer a non-standard, shill definition of “accelerationism” that excludes CCP acceleration?
PEACE 😇
And by your analogy, the Ukrainians are fighting the sort of guerrilla warfare that the Afghans had used against the Soviets. That pretty much corresponds to the hypothesis that the regular Ukrainian army has already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated. It sounds like you're saying that the most notable evidence of Ukrainian armor in operation is this one clip of a single Ukrainian tank attacking a Russian convoy.
But the Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, and if there's only this clip of a single tank currently in combat, that leaves me suspicious that the Russian claims are mostly correct and nearly all the Ukrainian armored forces have already been destroyed or otherwise incapacitated due to lack of fuel.
So the Russians have claimed that they've already destroyed or incapacitated nearly all of Ukraine's air and armored units, and despite the massive barrage of Ukrainian propaganda, they haven't provided any solid evidence that those claims are false. Instead of Tweeting possibly fake videos of individual destroyed Russian tanks, why don't they provide a video of 30 Ukrainian tanks launching a powerful counter-attack?
Meanwhile, I've only watched the beginning of this new Scott Ritter interview from a couple of days ago, but he's still saying that the Russians have effectively won the war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6HI_26aU-c&t=90s
Winning a war is a pretty objectively verifiable result. I just don't see why Ritter would be still making these claims until he believed they were probably true. It's not like making bold predictions about what the global temperature will be like in 50 years.Replies: @Dmitry
Yes I think nobody knows (although this is a video from the beginning of the war). Although as he explains, Ukraine’s airforce was small and not very functioning from the beginning.
They are fighting defensively, with as aspects of “guerrilla warfare”. But this is their strategy from the first day.
Some of the incompetent aspects of Ukraine, is why they didn’t have established trenches and defensive forts, around Kiev?
But they have been probably correct to not direct fight Russian armor in the first days, and instead use more guerilla warfare concepts like attacking the supply lines.
There is not only this clip (there are famous clips of armor in urban war from Azov in Mariupol for example), but this clip shows an example of how they seem to be using the equipment. A single tank was defensively firing against a column of BTR-80 in the road. Presumably the tank is hidden inside one of the buildings before the ambush.
In January, Sky News reported in Donbass. It indicated something about Ukraine’s concept for the tanks. That they want to conceal their not many good tanks. The reporter at 1:00 said “the tanks are usually concealed in snowy forest”.
https://youtu.be/49yzRjqVSGM?t=63.
It implies they are hiding the tanks in a defensive position and then drive them quickly from cover, for ambush.
It’s possible this has been claimed (as I’m not watching the military presentations). But from what I watched of main media in Russia, I haven’t heard them saying Ukraine’s forces are mostly destroyed yet. Some of the media seems to me told to be preparing for a longer war unfortunately.
It depends what is the objective of the war which had been believed before the beginning, or which what at least be presented after. If the objective is just to occupy Mariupol, it would be possible to say there is victory next week probably. If the objective was Kiev? I’m not sure how objectively can be stated by politicians. But the historians will need to know what the original objectives had been.
If you look at Putin’s speech in 24 February, he gives not precise objective at all. It’s available in English here. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
“The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”
Although in February 25 he seemed to imply more ambitious objective. Although it is not said in direct way either.
“I am appealing to the military of the armed forces of Ukraine. Do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, wives and elders as a live shield. Take power into your own hands. It seems it will be easier for us to come to terms with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis that have settled in Kiev and that have taken the Ukrainian people hostage.”
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67851
Most of the pro-Russian people seem to be saying that the best Ukrainian units are in the Donbas area, and are currently being surrounded and eliminated. If that actually happens, I think Russia has won the war, but if they successfully retreat, link up with the rest of the Ukrainian army and form a new defensive line, the result would be much more ambiguous.Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Yevardian
Not a good sign for the future political alignment of these Ukrainian refugees.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader
Agreed. I think Le Pen is appallingly stupid and probably her presidency wouldn’t have led to much positive (slight slowing down of the great replacement at most, possibly at the cost of major intra-European strife), but I can’t say I feel any sympathy anymore for Poles and Balts who seem to expect unconditional support for their national political projects, yet belittle and mock right-wing Westerners who have very good reasons to be alienated from what the modern West is becoming, and worship people like Johnson, Trudeau or Macron as heroes. On some level it would be divine justice if the big bad Russian empire was defeated, only for countries like Lithuania and Latvia then to be reconstructed by the shitlib empire into de-nationalized open borders zones, once their petty nationalisms are no longer useful for confronting Russia.
And apart from that, suddendeath is also wrong on the facts. Le Pen did significantly better than last time and unless polls before the election were wrong Macron was basically just saved by the huge cohort of boomers. Combined with ethnic voting (very strong Muslim support for Melenchon in the first round) this might indicate that French politics will become increasingly polarized and unstable over the next 2-3 decades. Nothing to indicate in any case that the election was determined by Ukraine/Russia.
My cynical view is that the potential military support that France (and a lot of other Western countries) is capable of giving Ukraine is basically a flash in the pan compared to what the US decides. At its heart, this is a proxy conflict, between the US and Russia, and the rabid enthusiasm of EEs blinds them to the fact that they are just tools of the US, in a conflict that will be paid for in the blood of Ukrainians, and that, at the end of the day, may not even prevent the Russians from marching through Odessa.
This is not about the inheritance of the Ukrainians being preserved, or Ukrainian civilians being killed, but about the hang-ups and security concerns of the Balts and Poles, etc., all cloaked in moralizing language, which is how all of politics seems to work now.
Not that I am totally without sympathy - who doesn't desire security? But to me, it seems like tunnel-vision. There's obviously a great deal of hypocrisy in their foolhardy attitude about what is happening to Western Europe. But the obvious question is, why aren't they content to be in NATO? Why do they feel like they need to bully everyone into dipping their hands in blood, pissing off the Russians, risking WW3, as well as blowing up their economies? (for the more energy dependent). And there is an even uglier side to it as well, like Visegrád 24 on twitter saying all Russian civilians are guilty.
On the political end, it seems like many are de-facto Russia-gaters. It is easy to predict the future dynamic among refugees.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW, @Thrax
Do you want to offer a non-standard, shill definition of "accelerationism" that excludes CCP acceleration?
PEACE 😇Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
Please don’t.
Yellowface anon linked to the real mccoy a few weeks ago and I sort of got the impression that he might have actually written it. If you are polite to the fellow and not a jackass we might be able to get him to opine on egregores and gematria.
I genuinely have absolutely no idea what YF means with his non-standard definition of 'accelerationist'. The only 'accelerationist' behaviour that I can find is the CCP's absurd WUHAN-19 overreaction in Shanghai.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
Not sure anyone does. Isn’t it all theory? (demographic accelerationism) Not evidenced by historical or current examples?
Sorry. I genuinely do not understand your post. What is YF trying to convey with the imprecise term ‘accelerationist’?
I genuinely have absolutely no idea what YF means with his non-standard definition of ‘accelerationist’. The only ‘accelerationist’ behaviour that I can find is the CCP’s absurd WUHAN-19 overreaction in Shanghai.
PEACE 😇
Read less zero hedge. Read more books.Replies: @A123
I genuinely have absolutely no idea what YF means with his non-standard definition of 'accelerationist'. The only 'accelerationist' behaviour that I can find is the CCP's absurd WUHAN-19 overreaction in Shanghai.
PEACE 😇Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
No kidding!
Read less zero hedge. Read more books.
And apart from that, suddendeath is also wrong on the facts. Le Pen did significantly better than last time and unless polls before the election were wrong Macron was basically just saved by the huge cohort of boomers. Combined with ethnic voting (very strong Muslim support for Melenchon in the first round) this might indicate that French politics will become increasingly polarized and unstable over the next 2-3 decades. Nothing to indicate in any case that the election was determined by Ukraine/Russia.Replies: @songbird, @AP
I concur. Not an impressive candidate. (Though at least she has children compared to Macron) But that letter that Scholz and the leaders of Spain and Portugal signed against her is enough to get me to endorse her over Macron. Not that it matters.
My cynical view is that the potential military support that France (and a lot of other Western countries) is capable of giving Ukraine is basically a flash in the pan compared to what the US decides. At its heart, this is a proxy conflict, between the US and Russia, and the rabid enthusiasm of EEs blinds them to the fact that they are just tools of the US, in a conflict that will be paid for in the blood of Ukrainians, and that, at the end of the day, may not even prevent the Russians from marching through Odessa.
This is not about the inheritance of the Ukrainians being preserved, or Ukrainian civilians being killed, but about the hang-ups and security concerns of the Balts and Poles, etc., all cloaked in moralizing language, which is how all of politics seems to work now.
Not that I am totally without sympathy – who doesn’t desire security? But to me, it seems like tunnel-vision. There’s obviously a great deal of hypocrisy in their foolhardy attitude about what is happening to Western Europe. But the obvious question is, why aren’t they content to be in NATO? Why do they feel like they need to bully everyone into dipping their hands in blood, pissing off the Russians, risking WW3, as well as blowing up their economies? (for the more energy dependent). And there is an even uglier side to it as well, like Visegrád 24 on twitter saying all Russian civilians are guilty.
On the political end, it seems like many are de-facto Russia-gaters. It is easy to predict the future dynamic among refugees.
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
Read less zero hedge. Read more books.Replies: @A123
Are you intentionally trolling?
The simple question is, “What is YF trying to convey with the imprecise term ‘accelerationist’?”
Posting an entire book rather than an answer? That has to be viewed as vicious & deliberate malice.
Would you like to make 2nd attempt at providing an answer that is legitimate, serious, & succinct?
PEACE 😇
My cynical view is that the potential military support that France (and a lot of other Western countries) is capable of giving Ukraine is basically a flash in the pan compared to what the US decides. At its heart, this is a proxy conflict, between the US and Russia, and the rabid enthusiasm of EEs blinds them to the fact that they are just tools of the US, in a conflict that will be paid for in the blood of Ukrainians, and that, at the end of the day, may not even prevent the Russians from marching through Odessa.
This is not about the inheritance of the Ukrainians being preserved, or Ukrainian civilians being killed, but about the hang-ups and security concerns of the Balts and Poles, etc., all cloaked in moralizing language, which is how all of politics seems to work now.
Not that I am totally without sympathy - who doesn't desire security? But to me, it seems like tunnel-vision. There's obviously a great deal of hypocrisy in their foolhardy attitude about what is happening to Western Europe. But the obvious question is, why aren't they content to be in NATO? Why do they feel like they need to bully everyone into dipping their hands in blood, pissing off the Russians, risking WW3, as well as blowing up their economies? (for the more energy dependent). And there is an even uglier side to it as well, like Visegrád 24 on twitter saying all Russian civilians are guilty.
On the political end, it seems like many are de-facto Russia-gaters. It is easy to predict the future dynamic among refugees.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW, @Thrax
That damned Twitter account is one reason why I’ve come to despise Polish right-wingers, their triumphalistic gloating over Poland cutting language classes for the German minority (just before the war in Ukraine stared) disgusted me. Last thing I saw they were bashing Hungary (to the joy of American shitlibs in the comments), because Orban doesn’t feel inclined to join their crusade.
I agree with most of your points. I’d disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I’m generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine’s government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re “all Russians being guilty”, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said “ALL Russians are our enemies”. But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.
What group is represented by the current German Traffic-Light coalition? Heaping abuse on Scholz is not necessarily anti-German. On this side of the pond, kicking Not-The-President Biden in the Yarbles is a virtue.
PEACE 😇Replies: @LatW
And before anyone reacts with hysteria, please remember that when you demean your opponents who keep trouncing you so hard that they have no idea who you are, you are really just finding a subtle way to demean yourself.
And like Hitler was a hero for killing Hitler, you are merely doing their work for them, by such self-demoralising.Replies: @songbird
If you walk around Warsaw you'll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to "Nazis" "Hitler" etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can't get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.Replies: @German_reader, @Yevardian, @AP, @utu
When my oldest daughter was about 9 she was learning about WW1 as part of history. After she read about the end of WW1 and the treaty of Versailles, she looked at my wife and said, "But Mom, everyone is so unhappy, isn't their just going to be another war?" To which my wife replied, "Well actually...."
On diversity, a little is not a bad thing since anything which is completely static is dead. However, even if the current flow of humanity and capital produces some short term material benefits resulting from cheap labor and profligate consumption it's sowing the seeds of it's own demise.
As in your European examples it is impossible to have a functional body politic (much less culture) from a mass of people who do not share basic assumptions of how society should work and what the priorities are.
In the US right now there are completely unreconcilable differences between the MAGA and Woke contingents, plus every other peripheral sub-group. I don't really see how accommodating resolution is possible.
Once the bread and circuses of the consumer economy start getting relatively thin (as they already have post-Vid) the differences are going to become a lot more meaningful and stark.
From a cultural standpoint, I would already have argued that the costs of diversity and globalization were impossibly steep, but I think we are approaching a time where even from a purely material level it will look like illusory progress for a poor return.
In the end I think the best days of globalization and multiculturalism are behind us and it's going to time to pay the piper.Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa
I don’t know how long ago this was, but can I suggest that you and your wife should be more generous to yourselves and do some of the things that make you openly and expressively happier?
This was a very intelligent observation for a nine year old, but she would have known nothing of society’s happiness and only could intuit such things from her parents.
Though I also get the feeling that this was some time ago and that you have since been working on this anyway.
You just had the least violent round of black riots in US history.
Your elections were no more disputed than most before.
The Jan 6th “insurgency” was a gigantic LARP. As is the “appalled” progressive reaction to it.
You can see this by the fact that barely a majority of people are divided enough on who they want to win to bother to vote.
Even though the country got locked down and everyone and had to wear masks, on and off, for two years!
Take the current stand-off in Florida. It is between people who don’t want young children to be groomed on sexual identities and people who are ignorant of the true nature of the bill and just want to oppose the other side, not realising that it is about third graders.
So while no one seems to much like Biden, no one seems to hate him.
All this means that consent towards the government may never have been higher in practice in the US, even if “approval” is very hard to get from internet people.
In other words, politics is increasingly about non-material issues, for which the currency is hysteria and doomerism, on both sides, but this, like a lot of hysteria, does not reflect in actual actions.
It is actually all a performance and a luxury one at that.
Even your own repressed hysteria and doomerism, that you certainly enjoy.
Now I’m not saying that you’re insincere and lying about being “serious”, but perhaps you’re not yet quite deeply reflected enough to see how this attitude of yours serves you on a deeper level, even as it probably also causes you some pain.
I am sorry to speak so personally, but it is better that I be honest about what I see. Anyway, truly things are working fine. The politicised hysteria is a luxury. If there are a few temporary problems in the future, we will likely cut back a bit on such luxuries, until they improve.
Having said this, I do like forward to the day when people transcend the need for this particular luxury, but it’ll take a while.
To set your mind at ease, we really do have a lot of fun around here. We're hardly all grim faced and putting off WW2 vibes!
I do agree that there is a lot of stupid larping, such as the Jan. 6th "insurrection", but that the levels of fundamental disagreement seem very high. As I already mentioned, it's not that these disagreements can't be papered over since they often can be. Sometimes not, and economic tensions and scarcity can be a powerful trigger for things to flare up more meaningfully.
I don't have a firm opinion on where we are headed, but I think there are plenty of reasons for potential pessimism. You may think I enjoy it, but I think it's merely prudent to consider potential negative possibilities. I don't base my life around them, but it happens that many of the things I gravitate to anyhow will also serve well in an increasingly relatively scarcity driven, post peak consumerist reality, should such a thing continue to materialize.
On the other hand, maybe nuclear fusion will become a magic energy source and we'll all get to enjoy some future of limitless abundance. Personally I'd rather assume that social security will be long gone by the time I'm old enough to collect, make alternative plans, and double hurray for me if I'm wrong!
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
One of their latest tweets:
LOL. Hmm… they seem sort of dusky-hued for Germans.
I only know what egregores are after looking it up.
I’m schizo but I stay away from the Occult as much as possible, and so toss out most of Land’s more outrageous writings.
I don't know if this is the exact link you posted back when, but I read a couple of that author's pieces and this is the one that I bookmarked:
https://lateralthinkingtechnology.wordpress.com/2021/08/16/the-taliban-at-the-wto-or-the-strange-divorce-of-liberalism-and-capitalism/
I had an inkling you might have been the author and the writing has a CCRU vibe. That is a crippling lifestyle I wouldn't wish for anybody, though.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
Political accelerationism in general, in this particular case archeofuturism. Biden in the US, Macron in France and the Greens in Germany are the perfect foils to ensure the right-wing will take over.
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
Christian Poland and Christian Russia should be able reconcile…. Yet, the reality is that most of the Polish population, as a whole, will not do so. AK made several posts about Polish opinion and polls. I recall a split about “Why?” being ~ 70% historical vs. ~10% current.
What group is represented by the current German Traffic-Light coalition? Heaping abuse on Scholz is not necessarily anti-German. On this side of the pond, kicking Not-The-President Biden in the Yarbles is a virtue.
PEACE 😇
Christianity in Russia is nothing more than some weird imperial death cult (probably run by the security services), zero spiritual content, its only purpose is glorification of Russia’s greatness and of her autocratic ruler, and getting people to kill and die for them. Baffles me why a good Protestant like you would have any sympathy for that.
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
Le Pen is not “appallingly stupid.” Except perhaps when compared to Macron. Macron is truly exceptional. He is the Nicholas Cage of politicians, but with even more success. He is also mysterious, thoughtful and original: the kid cool enough to bang his high school teacher, but also serious enough to marry her.
And before anyone reacts with hysteria, please remember that when you demean your opponents who keep trouncing you so hard that they have no idea who you are, you are really just finding a subtle way to demean yourself.
And like Hitler was a hero for killing Hitler, you are merely doing their work for them, by such self-demoralising.
Don’t be evasive. We know you mean that these Chechens are Muslims lording it over Whitey. Dont play dumb.
Regime stability in Venezuela has increased, as living standards and demography have gotten worse.
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
The French political system is designed to cater to a technocratic elite. It’s not really worth following their electoral politics. No alarms and no surprises. The last interesting situation was the Reynaud, Petain. De Gaulle and Mandel split. After that, very dull.
And before anyone reacts with hysteria, please remember that when you demean your opponents who keep trouncing you so hard that they have no idea who you are, you are really just finding a subtle way to demean yourself.
And like Hitler was a hero for killing Hitler, you are merely doing their work for them, by such self-demoralising.Replies: @songbird
Who would you rather marry, Macron or Zelenksy? (Assuming Macron isn’t a homo)
I think this picture quite accurately captures how good Macron has managed to present himself as 'a man without a face', quite a clever strategy considering how divisive French politics is becoming (which I think may ultimately be a sign of vigour, seemingly lacking everywhere else in W.Europe)
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/097/710/d2aReplies: @songbird
Aw shucks.
I don’t know if this is the exact link you posted back when, but I read a couple of that author’s pieces and this is the one that I bookmarked:
https://lateralthinkingtechnology.wordpress.com/2021/08/16/the-taliban-at-the-wto-or-the-strange-divorce-of-liberalism-and-capitalism/
I had an inkling you might have been the author and the writing has a CCRU vibe. That is a crippling lifestyle I wouldn’t wish for anybody, though.
Some people seem to object to pretty young women dressed up as nurses and singing a catchy little tune:
My cynical view is that the potential military support that France (and a lot of other Western countries) is capable of giving Ukraine is basically a flash in the pan compared to what the US decides. At its heart, this is a proxy conflict, between the US and Russia, and the rabid enthusiasm of EEs blinds them to the fact that they are just tools of the US, in a conflict that will be paid for in the blood of Ukrainians, and that, at the end of the day, may not even prevent the Russians from marching through Odessa.
This is not about the inheritance of the Ukrainians being preserved, or Ukrainian civilians being killed, but about the hang-ups and security concerns of the Balts and Poles, etc., all cloaked in moralizing language, which is how all of politics seems to work now.
Not that I am totally without sympathy - who doesn't desire security? But to me, it seems like tunnel-vision. There's obviously a great deal of hypocrisy in their foolhardy attitude about what is happening to Western Europe. But the obvious question is, why aren't they content to be in NATO? Why do they feel like they need to bully everyone into dipping their hands in blood, pissing off the Russians, risking WW3, as well as blowing up their economies? (for the more energy dependent). And there is an even uglier side to it as well, like Visegrád 24 on twitter saying all Russian civilians are guilty.
On the political end, it seems like many are de-facto Russia-gaters. It is easy to predict the future dynamic among refugees.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW, @Thrax
They are but the problem is that NATO’s contingency plan in the Baltic region is not strong enough. Work is underway, but it is not sufficient.
But I agree. Ultimately, it’s not the job of Western countries to defend the Baltic States, much less Ukraine. This doesn’t change the fact though that these countries are a buffer for the West so it’s up to the West to figure out if it’s worth it for them or not (there will be differing opinions). As to the Baltic States & Ukraine (and possibly Poland), as I have said many times before, the only option that would come anywhere near any kind of long term security guarantee is Israelization (something that is quite harsh on the population, but oh well, the world is becoming more hostile and one has to decide if one wants to exist or not). Plus, a regional alliance.
Btw, the Ukrainians are running high quality propaganda material on some of their main channels, including prayer videos. I really like this one (but there are other, more peaceful ones).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RevMOGzxl8k Of course, this is a risk. And it is being decided right now where this border will be. Some kind of a reformatting of the state will be required. I'm also worried about who can trickle in from Donbas, although this may be irrational as the guys in Donbas probably couldn't care less about Europe.
Ideally, they should start tackling organized crime together with the EU before they join.
As to the politics side, Ukraine is large enough to have influence on wider European politics. It almost seems that Ukraine could receive some kind of an "honorary membership". We'll see what the Western European countries think about this magnificent idea. :)
What's interesting is that there is a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty (Article 42). But in reality, Ukraine is now like Israel and should become a fortress of its own (the EU cannot protect it) but in that case it may not be able to abide by some of the stricter EU norms. It is exactly the spirit of freedom that allows Ukraine to fight so hard, and the EU norms may stifle that spirit. Then again if the majority of them wish to be in the EU, it should be heard. And if it can be pulled off. There is a lot to be weighed here. I didn't mean the city, I will most likely be modifying my language to the "Rus vs Moscovite" distinction, although I'm not sure yet (it doesn't yet seem fully natural and matching with my outlook). Well, there's that side, but it seems there is a distinct new identity that appeared in East Ukraine. It must have been building up already before 2014. This was somewhat bigoted (even if you believe it's in good spirit). I've seen it over and over in Russian movies -- the Ukrainian is so often portrayed as the naive, low IQ country bumpkin (from the hutor). As a romnat, I enjoy folklore a lot, but these stereotypes were meant to portray them as backward. When in fact they're very intelligent, especially in Kyiv, and quite modern. I think that not giving them agency is part of the mistaken perception of "they will not fight back", of underestimating their backbone.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Philip Owen, @Dmitry
Ukraine is very good in propaganda, images, typical obsession of postsoviet life (except maybe Baltics nowadays doesn’t have such shiny image obsession?).
Ukraine always needed to join the EU, because many problems with crime, with corruption, with legal system. Ukraine should have joined thirty years ago.
Not that the EU can solve these problems in all cases, as it cannot with Greece, Romania, Hungary, Malta. Moreover, EU membership would have increased emigration rates.
But at least there is so much more promise for Ukraine if it is in the EU, if there some external system to monitor how e.g. they will spend money invested there, how they will establish legal order.
Israel has a paranoid mentality of a medieval Middle Eastern fortress city, before a crusader siege. And Ukrainian mentality is somewhere on the opposite spectrum, even when the siege is inevitable.
Postsoviet and Middle Eastern mentality is a little “different” and I’m not sure how easily these cultural things can change.
Ukrainian society is skilled in propaganda, and believes their propaganda. But Israeli society doesn’t care about their external image, has the Middle Eastern attitude (although there might be confusion, as American Jews/Christians produce shiny propaganda for Israel, while the local Israeli culture is dangerously not interested about their increasingly negative external image).
In postsoviet culture, there is obsession about images and symbols. Postsoviet society puts the money and beautiful things in the center of the city, so the foreigners can see it. Impressing the foreigners, is the dream of the postsoviet culture. (In Israel, they do opposite, where they to try to hide nice things from foreigners, and keep the attractive areas secret away from the tourists; Middle East like to trick foreigners in the opposition direction to the postsoviet tricks).
Postsoviet culture displays the beautiful women on everything. In Middle East, they try to hide the beautiful women.
Postsoviet culture, pretends to be richer than they are. In Israel, they pretend to be poorer than they are (“hide diamonds under a bed”), wear amulets because they are paranoid about “evil eyes” of jealous neighbors.
In Russian television, hosts talk about how they have nuclear weapons and can use them. In Israel, they build bunkers under the desert and imprison people who talk about nuclear weapons.
Ukrainians claim to be preparing for war for 8 years, produce beautiful videos, but they didn’t build trenches or defensive fortification at the invasion routes.
Why was there not a system of trenches on the border with Belarus or Crimea? They build trenches around Kiev now (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9wPHMFM308.), but for 8 years before nobody was building trenches around Kiev? There is too much “Russian avos” in the mentality.
If Ukraine wanted to build a fortress, they could have started mine fields on all the borders. Then trenches and fortifications on the invasion routes. But they didn’t worry so much ultimately. “Maybe everything will be fine, maybe they won’t invade”.
I’m not sure these fundamental attitudes would change even now. Although Ukraine will certainly be much more de-de-militarized, than de-militarized, after the special operation, than before. They will make a lot of videos about their defenses. But their cultural inclination is to avoid thinking about it.
Ukrainians will produce beautiful art and visual culture about the war, but you might not expect decades of buildings bunkers under the forests and creating secret nuclear weapons program.
Sure, the educated people in Kyiv/Kiev are speaking a lot more correctly, than many uneducated people in Russia, especially anywhere from as far North as Voronezh and all South from there. Much of the population has more accent than educated people in Kyiv/Kiev.
It’s also nowadays one of the “triggering” aspects for the Russian society is that Ukraine all these years had been building its national identity project, on romanticizing of their provincialism and backwardness, which was formerly also used to create Russian identity.* At the same time, they say they would go to the EU, become more “sophisticated” than Russia, become “more European than Russia”.
A lot of the local propaganda of the authorities in Russia, also has the clause “sure we are not great, but look how bad everything is in Ukraine, look how corrupt Ukraine, be happy for your wise authorities you don’t live in Ukraine”. If Ukraine had become an economically growing and successful EU country, this would be difficult to absorb if you had believed this propaganda narrative which used the alleged failure of Ukraine as a reason to support your government. This was how people were joking about Putin’s speech at the beginning of war (https://fn-volga.ru/news/view/id/180506)
–
* Russian identity has been partly constructed this way, in second half of the 19th century, after importing the method from Germany. German romanticism has believed Germans were less civilized than France, but the reaction is “we have more deep culture based in the folk, etc”. Later, there is copy paste of the German romanticism, but instead about “Russian soul”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMF8ZU8uBUkExamples in Ukraine, victory day propaganda videos focused on continuity of past and present war. And of the mobilization of society. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQk6UupEJuA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3EgHMTDtng As typical in the modern propaganda, war is not negative, and shiny, and associated with beautiful actors.
You can't just "join" (or rather the correct term is "accede", "accession to the EU"), there are a lot of hoops you have to jump through. Ukraine had started thriving already around 2016, if you discount the war, exports were up, etc. So Ukraine had a chance even on its own. Not that I'm against their eventual membership under the right circumstances. By the way, many Ukrainian nationalists prefer to keep their nation state without the EU. I'm not sure if they'll be asked. You're right to some extent, Ukrainians are generally more relaxed, however, they had improved their military and they are good fighters. And, yes, I am aware of the differences between the Jewish people and Eastern Europeans. For instance, even in the EE, it's somewhat typical for Jewish people to keep their yards a bit messy. They don't fuss over landscaping the way, for instance, the Baltic people do. They keep everything that's of value inside. Given their history, that's kind of understandable. I know and it is super annoying. And tiresome. This is very very smart and the right way to go about it. I couldn't agree with you more. They should've prepared more and we should've helped them more (this is being discussed on some of their channels). They have a lot of fortifications in the East, they had increased the number of troops and at least they completed the Neptune (which is quite a feat).
But the very fact that the enemy was allowed to enter as far as places like Bucha which are middle class residential areas with new buildings is very frustrating. Yes, the roads need to be mined and one must strike the enemy convoy preemptively before they even enter the country.
They didn't fully believe that the strike would come from Belarus (although people like Arestovych warned about it over and over). I don't want to be too hard on them because it's a huge country and they had already suffered a lot. This is incredibly unjust. And they're amazing fighters (as seen on some videos). But they could've at least prepared for the evacuation of people in certain areas. I agree with you here a 100%. Maybe they simply lacked resources. This will be an issue of mental adjustment, if these border countries can become like Israel (not exactly the same culture, ofc, but whether they can create their own version of it). Things like female biathlon athletes that are trained as snipers, etc. It will be very hard because most people prefer to be relaxed and not spartan.
There are actually voices in their territorial defense saying that Ukrainians now have to decide if they're going to be able to live that way. It's sad... but maybe something good can come of it. I didn't just mean accent. Ukrainians have been quite accomplished, they have technical knowledge, they're not retards like shown on some Russian tv shows. Yea, but then there was another layer of Soviet urban identity where Russians were portrayed as very progressive. Either as some overachiever progressive foreman in construction or manufacturing, or some scientist or cosmonaut, etc. And how they brought civilization to all of us "younger brothers". LOL. Kind of endearing in retrospect.Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya, @Dmitry
I agree with most of your points. I'd disagree somewhat insofar as I still think what Russia is doing in Ukraine is pretty vile, and I'm generally in favour of supporting Ukraine with weapons shipments (even though I find it hard at times, the campaign of emotional blackmail Ukraine's government and their eager supporters in Western media are running is pretty repellent as well imo).
EDIT: re "all Russians being guilty", Ukraine's ambassador to Germany (the Stepan Bandera fan) has also literally said "ALL Russians are our enemies". But yeah, of course that guy is only disliked by Germans with a Herrenmensch mentality, sure thing.Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Triteleia Laxa, @Wokechoke, @Matra
I spent the the first half of this month in Poland and I’ve started to despise Polish people in general, not just their stupid low IQ right wingers with their Bush-era neocon talking points. Just five years ago they were among my favourite nationalities but the more one is around them the more one notices that they are almost all like that Visegrad faggot: Bitter, delusional, closed-minded, pig-headed bigots, who are congenitally incapable of understanding that not everybody on earth has the same interests or concerns as Polish people.
If you walk around Warsaw you’ll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to “Nazis” “Hitler” etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can’t get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.
If anything, the tendencies you mention seem to have only gotten worse since the 1990s (when they might have been more understandable, given that the WW2 generation was still around). But after almost 20 years in the EU and NATO, with Poland being secure and prosperous like never before in its history, the sense of grievance and resentment doesn't seem to have diminished at all.
American warcrimes Bacque wrote about did not last very long. Morgenthau plan was never putin into place though most of Europe would have welcomed it. Shortly after Soviet also realised they had to cease disembowling E. Germany too, both powers had a vested interest in encouraging Germans to rebuild as a core country.
You could argue the Americans succeeded in psychologically breaking the Germans beyond their wildest hopes... but that was only possible because Germans have always been a nation of hyper-conformist followers and true-believers (it doesn't matter what) since Bismarck's unification. It seems to span every German I've met in person anyway. Even when in holiday interactions with tattooed German girls who wolfed down mind-bending drugs like candy, there was something unbearably schoolmarmish about every single one of them. Or German who proudly self-described himself as 'deepcover far-right' (lol), but he got genuinely and comically horrified even when I just probed him with some equivocal questions about Hitler.
With right incentives German collective hive-mind just as easily be remoulded in a generation, if it doesn't get irrevocably altered by demographic changes before then, at least.Scandis seem kind of similar like that too, I wonder if Thulean Friend would agree, regardless of whether he's an ethnic Swede or not, he seems pretty assimilated. Only the Dutch seem genuinely 'tolerant' or 'open-minded' in the old sense of the word.Replies: @German_reader
"I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right."
:::::::::::::::::
I just spent 11 days in Poland, helping family memories who have recently settled there from Ukraine due to the war and making a vacation out of it by enjoying a resort and thermal baths in the Tatras (wish the weather was better lol) and exploring a large urban city where I lived with Polish cousins (one of my grandparent's siblings, married to a Pole, chose to stay in Poland after World War II while the rest of them moved to Germany and then USA and Canada).
I was struck by how kind and nice the Polish people were, almost everywhere. A local Polish guy I didn't know at a tourist site bought me a souvenir book without asking after he overheard a conversation in which I was told they didn't take dollars or credit cards; villagers guided me in their car as I followed in mine to places of family importance in that village in Lemko country in SE Poland (they had remembered that my family had once owned the village and told me some positive anecdotes about a locally famous relative - he was a Greek Catholic Ruthenian, these villagers were ethnic Poles, but they were great to us). While I have experienced kindness in various places I have visited (people are generally good), it seemed to be more concentrated in Poland.
Speaking of villages, rural Poland appears to be very prosperous, indeed much more prosperous than the rural USA by appearance. This is true of SE Poland, which is traditionally the poorest part of the country. Roads are great (thanks to EU funding) but the houses are also very new/modernized, and very neat. Nothing like the shacks and rundown trailer parks that are common in rural places in the USA such as West Virginia or even rural Maine. And I was taking a lot of backroads to get to old family villages. The explanation is that these villagers would go to Germany or England or France and work for a few years, pouring all of their money back to Poland. With this money they were able to build houses in their villages (where money goes further) that were equal to middle class housing in Germany. Some Poles have a love of Italy and occasionally one sees what appears to be a prosperous Italian house that is nicer and larger than many homes I saw when I visited Italy itself. I have seen similar thing happening in rural Western Ukraine but whereas in western Ukraine perhaps 1 in 10 houses have been redone to a prosperous Western standard (the contrast is jarring) and the roads are awful, in rural Poland it is about 95% and it's like driving around central Germany except one is in the middle of nowhere. It really highlights how Ukraine has missed out by not going for the EU right away. The cost of being burdened with Donbas as part of Ukraine at independence.
Ukrainian flags everywhere in Poland. Numerous people have taken Ukrainians into rental flats if they own them, and many even into their own homes. My cousin's Roman Catholic church is renovating some buildings that will be used as apartments for Ukrainian refugees. There are no Ukrainians there (my cousin is only 1/4 Ukrainian, no one lese there is even that), these are Poles helping Ukrainians. We saw a lot of Ukrainian refugees there, speaking both Ukrainian and Russian. They get free food from places set up in train stations and central squares. People from Ukraine not only get free train tickets but also free museum tickets, we saw many of them admiring Polish culture and art in for example the Czartoryski museum in Krakow and in a palace we toured in southeastern Poland.
Refugees are everywhere, they speak both Ukrainian and Russian. They are overwhelmingly women and children and from all social backgrounds; I saw quite a few ladies in new-looking Range Rovers with Ukrainian plates but also people who looked very poor.
Much fewer bicycles in Poland than in Western Europe or than in parts of the USA. However they have extensive bike lanes throughout rural areas, probably as make-work construction projects with EU funding so if one wanted to bike around the infrastructure is there. Trains are fine.
Poland still seems religious. I saw lots of young people at church. My niece (university undergraduate) found her boyfriend at some Catholic youth camp. My older high school age nephew spoke the Gospels at Mass. They attend Mass weekly. These are very attractive, athletic and popular kids from an educated and wealthy family; among Americans one sees this level of religiosity rarely and mostly in rural areas or among sects.
Spent a few days at a hotel in SE Poland where our waitress at the hotel restaurant had served American officials such as Blinken (it was the nicest place in town, apparently). Had drinks at the hotel bar until 2 AM with a diverse mix of contractors, aid organization people, and arms dealers (one guy claimed to be Europe's largest arms dealer and after I google stalked him I saw that he was merely exaggerating), heard some interesting things from them about the war and Zelensky's administration (which I won't share in writing) after they've had 10 or more drinks.
A few photos (nothing touristy, google can be used for pictures of Poland's charming cities and mountains):
Sikh organization giving free food to Ukrainian refugees right at the border:
https://i.imgur.com/DFYFPHK.jpg
From other organizations, there are also free clothes, free crepes (from a French aid organization), etc. It smells delicious. An aid worker complained to me about what they call "shoppers" - local Poles (typically the town drunk or something) who come in from the nearby village to get free stuff. They are chased away once identified.
American Patriot missile system (I don't think it's classified because its by a public road outside major airport in SE Poland):
https://i.imgur.com/81u2nOb.jpg
Krakow train station; Ukrainians get free sim cards for their phones and other stuff:
https://i.imgur.com/brQZU7G.jpgReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend, @RSDB
People there in Poland realize that the stakes are very high. This is not a war for an irrelevant piece of Ukraine's territory. This war is about the future of NATO and EU and Europe in general and Poland in particular. Probably Poles are aware of it more than most. They see that there is a strong chance for Russia to be reduced to the third rate power and they won't hide this unlike our media who do not want to reveal true objectives of the West that Russia delenda est.
And where did the fantasy of yours come from that you thought you did like Poland since 2015 or so? Because they did not get 2015 refugees or that they are somewhat more traditional by going to church on Sundays? Poland has not deceived you. It is you who have fooled yourself because you are ignorant and have no common sense. No different than with Russian and Putin fanboys you can encounter here at UR who know nothing about real Russia but who fantasize that an enemy of their enemy is their friend. Putin is not their friend though they made themselves to be Putin's bitches.Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus
Oh, and, songbird, please, do not pretend to not know that 70% of the Russian population support the war, with everything it entails. The vatniks know full well what is being done to Ukrainians and they are supportive of it (see wives of soldiers who encourage to loot and rape “as long as you use protection, honey, and don’t tell me about later”).
That's the bitch of it, from a nationalist perspective. Group loyalty impulse can be taken for granted and pissed on every day of the week by the regime, and then, it is evoked and encouraged in war, where it can lead to some nasty things. The best aspects of it are ignored and wasted, and the worst aspects encouraged and then later cited to tarnish it.
But I don't see the point in apportioning blame to civilians. What exactly is Visegrad 24 after? Does he fantasize about bombing them? That would only bring retaliation. I cannot believe that. Normal women do not think that way.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW
What group is represented by the current German Traffic-Light coalition? Heaping abuse on Scholz is not necessarily anti-German. On this side of the pond, kicking Not-The-President Biden in the Yarbles is a virtue.
PEACE 😇Replies: @LatW
What “Christian Russia”? The “Christian Russia” that is bombing, murdering & torturing right on the Easter holiday? Or the one that is sending Muslim thugs to murder attractive Slavic men & rape their women? Or the one that is sending destitute Buddhists to do the same? Or the one that is raising the red flag with the sickle & hammer across the occupied territories?
Well, if you’re saying that the Russian forces in the North already suffered 35,000 casualties, that’s a pretty dramatic claim, and I find it difficult to believe that Russia would be able to keep it quiet for too long, so word will probably get around. But I’m certainly pretty skeptical.
The commander attempting to beseige Mikolaeyev reported a 50% frostbite rate on an intercepted phone call. Trenchfoot is a problem in the Russian military. I know this directly. In 2012, I was asked by an "outdoor equipment" dealer in Taganarog to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots "like the British wore in the Falklands - we had trenchfoot problems but less than the Argentinians. Russian boots are still a bad design. Also until 2015 they used very traditional footwraps instead of socks. Some still use footwraps. The British Army stopped footwraps in 1915 because they encouraged trenchfoot - 75,000 British soldiers died of trenchfoot. Soldiers in the cold and wet should get a change of thick woollen socks a day (In WW1 knitting socks for soldiers was the duty of all young women). Russian soldiers actually get one pair of thin acrylics a campaign, the difference being pocketed. Frostbite below freezing, trenchfoot above. I'd bet on typhus in the Russian army too given their lack of preparedness for life in the open.
Macron, though I personally dislike him, does seem like the most intelligent leader France has had in many years. He seems like the only leader in Europe who’s actually adapting to the major events in the world happening right now, instead of just constantly whining and bitching to the Americans to solve The Continent’s problems.
I think this picture quite accurately captures how good Macron has managed to present himself as ‘a man without a face’, quite a clever strategy considering how divisive French politics is becoming (which I think may ultimately be a sign of vigour, seemingly lacking everywhere else in W.Europe)
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/097/710/d2a
Wonder if they read about it in one of their magazine-newsletters. Probably not.
Some of the incompetent aspects of Ukraine, is why they didn't have established trenches and defensive forts, around Kiev?
But they have been probably correct to not direct fight Russian armor in the first days, and instead use more guerilla warfare concepts like attacking the supply lines. There is not only this clip (there are famous clips of armor in urban war from Azov in Mariupol for example), but this clip shows an example of how they seem to be using the equipment. A single tank was defensively firing against a column of BTR-80 in the road. Presumably the tank is hidden inside one of the buildings before the ambush.
In January, Sky News reported in Donbass. It indicated something about Ukraine's concept for the tanks. That they want to conceal their not many good tanks. The reporter at 1:00 said "the tanks are usually concealed in snowy forest".
https://youtu.be/49yzRjqVSGM?t=63.
It implies they are hiding the tanks in a defensive position and then drive them quickly from cover, for ambush. It's possible this has been claimed (as I'm not watching the military presentations). But from what I watched of main media in Russia, I haven't heard them saying Ukraine's forces are mostly destroyed yet. Some of the media seems to me told to be preparing for a longer war unfortunately. It depends what is the objective of the war which had been believed before the beginning, or which what at least be presented after. If the objective is just to occupy Mariupol, it would be possible to say there is victory next week probably. If the objective was Kiev? I'm not sure how objectively can be stated by politicians. But the historians will need to know what the original objectives had been.
If you look at Putin's speech in 24 February, he gives not precise objective at all. It's available in English here. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
"The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation."
Although in February 25 he seemed to imply more ambitious objective. Although it is not said in direct way either.
"I am appealing to the military of the armed forces of Ukraine. Do not allow neo-Nazis and Banderites to use your children, wives and elders as a live shield. Take power into your own hands. It seems it will be easier for us to come to terms with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis that have settled in Kiev and that have taken the Ukrainian people hostage."
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67851Replies: @Ron Unz
I think it’s pretty clear that they were hoping that the Kiev government might collapse without much fighting and the city would fall without resistance. But hoping and expected are two different things.
Most of the pro-Russian people seem to be saying that the best Ukrainian units are in the Donbas area, and are currently being surrounded and eliminated. If that actually happens, I think Russia has won the war, but if they successfully retreat, link up with the rest of the Ukrainian army and form a new defensive line, the result would be much more ambiguous.
1. The 12 million Ukrainians, that Russia is hoping to conduct a successful counter-insurgency against in occupied territories, would likely require a constant presence of 200,000+ Russian troops for years.
This is the best case scenario for Russia on ending this war. It would be taking control of a Northern Ireland, but much, much more difficult.
2. As long as the West sends Ukraine $5 billion a month for their government to operate, and buys and sends enough weapons from their own arms industries, Ukraine will be able to keep fighting conventionally.
This means that Russia cannot just take a bit of Ukrainian land and call it quits. They need a Ukrainian surrender. WW2 should show how fast vast armies can be raised by European powers when backed by sufficient industry and when the nation is fully mobilised. This does not seem to be an option for Russia, which is fighting for no discernable war aim, but it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their home.
3. Sanctions are not a small deal. No one is helping Russia to circumvent them and they will destroy Russian supply chains. It just will take 3/4 months from when the war began.
And Russia cannot hope to end sanctions without Kyiv, or withdrawal.
4. Ukrainian forces are yet to sustain a significant defeat. They have conducted a successful defence in depth so far and have taken the correct path of avoiding major confrontations, while using small, flexible units to attrit and disrupt their enemy.
You can call this Ukrainian propaganda, but the fact is that Russia shows no appreciable territorial gains after 2 months of fighting on their own borders. Either the Russians are doing nothing or they are frequently failing and getting mauled
Also, obviously Ukraine has lost some territory, but no sensible defence is conducted on a line.
The 5% or so of their land that they have temporarily sacrificed would be ordinary, paltry even, in a successful textbook defence.
5. The only Russian successes have been in propaganda, especially domestically, but such lies, once revealed by reality, tend to backfire spectacularly. Then again, you're still lovingly promoting Ritter and MacGregor, who both extremely confidently predicted Russia's total victory over Ukraine 2 months ago. So it seems that some people want to be deluded.Replies: @Beckow
The video here is a nearly a month old, but in the main, all his predictions have generally come true, he saw Russia's initial performance as sub-par, but sensibly cautioned against Ukrainian triumphalism, arguing the Russian army would natraully adapt and learn after its opening blunders, as all functional militaries do. He predicted the conflict would evolve into an artillery war, and has also recently noted the caginess of Ukraine regarding what operation capabilities it actually has left.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnD7gXGKR_gReplies: @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz
I know you want the US to lose to rescue Europe from Atlanticism. Me too, but by punching Ukraine, Russia is losing even the level of support from India and China in fear of losing trade links with the West. There are neo-Nazi elements in Wagner too. And a few Nazi policies e.g. industrial policies and natalism are on the net positive for the German ethnicity they were targeted at - smart people adopt them under different guises and dumb people signal opposition, like the ideological establishment in Russia.Replies: @Mikhail
My point exactly on how Putin pursued the peace option.
China and India see the wisdom behind not throwing its support to the West on the matter of Ukraine.
If so, nothing like what’s evident in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine.
If you walk around Warsaw you'll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to "Nazis" "Hitler" etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can't get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.Replies: @German_reader, @Yevardian, @AP, @utu
That’s harsh, but pretty much lines up with my own impressions. And I used to be at least not toally unsympathetic to Poland myself.
If anything, the tendencies you mention seem to have only gotten worse since the 1990s (when they might have been more understandable, given that the WW2 generation was still around). But after almost 20 years in the EU and NATO, with Poland being secure and prosperous like never before in its history, the sense of grievance and resentment doesn’t seem to have diminished at all.
-
* Russian identity has been partly constructed this way, in second half of the 19th century, after importing the method from Germany. German romanticism has believed Germans were less civilized than France, but the reaction is "we have more deep culture based in the folk, etc". Later, there is copy paste of the German romanticism, but instead about "Russian soul".Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
If anyone was interested in the propaganda war of victory day videos?
Examples in Russia. At 1:00 we experience the socially atomized modern life. But at 2:15 the memory of war, when there were youth and community. In war, young people were socially integrated like in some pioneers or Israeli “peoples’ army”.
Message of the propaganda is the desolation of atomized modern peaceful life, but the social community that was existing in the war. Memory of war is painful from today, because of the lost social integration. Therefore, is the memory of war negative?
Another similar theme. Losing your boyfriend in war has epic, romantic dimension, compared to the modern one child family produced by peace.
Examples in Ukraine, victory day propaganda videos focused on continuity of past and present war. And of the mobilization of society.
As typical in the modern propaganda, war is not negative, and shiny, and associated with beautiful actors.
The US had the best timing possible. A devastated post WW2 world economy where it was the only real player left untouched, plentiful cheap energy, and a capable population and thriving industrial base. It’s hard to lose with that confluence of good fortune.
If you walk around Warsaw you'll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to "Nazis" "Hitler" etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can't get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.Replies: @German_reader, @Yevardian, @AP, @utu
Germany did get off quite lightly in the end.
American warcrimes Bacque wrote about did not last very long. Morgenthau plan was never putin into place though most of Europe would have welcomed it. Shortly after Soviet also realised they had to cease disembowling E. Germany too, both powers had a vested interest in encouraging Germans to rebuild as a core country.
You could argue the Americans succeeded in psychologically breaking the Germans beyond their wildest hopes… but that was only possible because Germans have always been a nation of hyper-conformist followers and true-believers (it doesn’t matter what) since Bismarck’s unification. It seems to span every German I’ve met in person anyway. Even when in holiday interactions with tattooed German girls who wolfed down mind-bending drugs like candy, there was something unbearably schoolmarmish about every single one of them. Or German who proudly self-described himself as ‘deepcover far-right’ (lol), but he got genuinely and comically horrified even when I just probed him with some equivocal questions about Hitler.
With right incentives German collective hive-mind just as easily be remoulded in a generation, if it doesn’t get irrevocably altered by demographic changes before then, at least.
Scandis seem kind of similar like that too, I wonder if Thulean Friend would agree, regardless of whether he’s an ethnic Swede or not, he seems pretty assimilated. Only the Dutch seem genuinely ‘tolerant’ or ‘open-minded’ in the old sense of the word.
Now it's true that none of this would have happened without the German invasion and the atrocities committed by Germans against Poles. This is generally accepted in Germany, as is the loss of the Eastern territories, any territorial revisionism died a long time ago. But given this background, the persistent claims by many Poles that Poland wasn't compensated at all are hard to take seriously. For a nation that is supposedly so Catholic I can't detect much forgiveness either, just carefully nourished and never-ending resentment. For someone who called me "humorless" earlier in this thread, you don't seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke
Most of the pro-Russian people seem to be saying that the best Ukrainian units are in the Donbas area, and are currently being surrounded and eliminated. If that actually happens, I think Russia has won the war, but if they successfully retreat, link up with the rest of the Ukrainian army and form a new defensive line, the result would be much more ambiguous.Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Yevardian
Problems for Russia:
1. The 12 million Ukrainians, that Russia is hoping to conduct a successful counter-insurgency against in occupied territories, would likely require a constant presence of 200,000+ Russian troops for years.
This is the best case scenario for Russia on ending this war. It would be taking control of a Northern Ireland, but much, much more difficult.
2. As long as the West sends Ukraine \$5 billion a month for their government to operate, and buys and sends enough weapons from their own arms industries, Ukraine will be able to keep fighting conventionally.
This means that Russia cannot just take a bit of Ukrainian land and call it quits. They need a Ukrainian surrender. WW2 should show how fast vast armies can be raised by European powers when backed by sufficient industry and when the nation is fully mobilised. This does not seem to be an option for Russia, which is fighting for no discernable war aim, but it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their home.
3. Sanctions are not a small deal. No one is helping Russia to circumvent them and they will destroy Russian supply chains. It just will take 3/4 months from when the war began.
And Russia cannot hope to end sanctions without Kyiv, or withdrawal.
4. Ukrainian forces are yet to sustain a significant defeat. They have conducted a successful defence in depth so far and have taken the correct path of avoiding major confrontations, while using small, flexible units to attrit and disrupt their enemy.
You can call this Ukrainian propaganda, but the fact is that Russia shows no appreciable territorial gains after 2 months of fighting on their own borders. Either the Russians are doing nothing or they are frequently failing and getting mauled
Also, obviously Ukraine has lost some territory, but no sensible defence is conducted on a line.
The 5% or so of their land that they have temporarily sacrificed would be ordinary, paltry even, in a successful textbook defence.
5. The only Russian successes have been in propaganda, especially domestically, but such lies, once revealed by reality, tend to backfire spectacularly. Then again, you’re still lovingly promoting Ritter and MacGregor, who both extremely confidently predicted Russia’s total victory over Ukraine 2 months ago. So it seems that some people want to be deluded.
American warcrimes Bacque wrote about did not last very long. Morgenthau plan was never putin into place though most of Europe would have welcomed it. Shortly after Soviet also realised they had to cease disembowling E. Germany too, both powers had a vested interest in encouraging Germans to rebuild as a core country.
You could argue the Americans succeeded in psychologically breaking the Germans beyond their wildest hopes... but that was only possible because Germans have always been a nation of hyper-conformist followers and true-believers (it doesn't matter what) since Bismarck's unification. It seems to span every German I've met in person anyway. Even when in holiday interactions with tattooed German girls who wolfed down mind-bending drugs like candy, there was something unbearably schoolmarmish about every single one of them. Or German who proudly self-described himself as 'deepcover far-right' (lol), but he got genuinely and comically horrified even when I just probed him with some equivocal questions about Hitler.
With right incentives German collective hive-mind just as easily be remoulded in a generation, if it doesn't get irrevocably altered by demographic changes before then, at least.Scandis seem kind of similar like that too, I wonder if Thulean Friend would agree, regardless of whether he's an ethnic Swede or not, he seems pretty assimilated. Only the Dutch seem genuinely 'tolerant' or 'open-minded' in the old sense of the word.Replies: @German_reader
Poland annexed a huge chunk of unequivocally German territory and ethnically cleansed millions of Germans from it. And this wasn’t a sterile process either, I’ve seen claims of 400 000 to 500 000 being outright killed in it (and no, that wasn’t in crazy “revisionist” literature of the kind popular on UR). Even if those numbers might be exaggerated, there certainly was a lot of extreme violence involved.
Now it’s true that none of this would have happened without the German invasion and the atrocities committed by Germans against Poles. This is generally accepted in Germany, as is the loss of the Eastern territories, any territorial revisionism died a long time ago. But given this background, the persistent claims by many Poles that Poland wasn’t compensated at all are hard to take seriously. For a nation that is supposedly so Catholic I can’t detect much forgiveness either, just carefully nourished and never-ending resentment.
For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.
:shrug: LOL.
Now it's true that none of this would have happened without the German invasion and the atrocities committed by Germans against Poles. This is generally accepted in Germany, as is the loss of the Eastern territories, any territorial revisionism died a long time ago. But given this background, the persistent claims by many Poles that Poland wasn't compensated at all are hard to take seriously. For a nation that is supposedly so Catholic I can't detect much forgiveness either, just carefully nourished and never-ending resentment. For someone who called me "humorless" earlier in this thread, you don't seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke
Germans brought Slavs into christianity & now they pay the price every few c.
:shrug:
LOL.
Now it's true that none of this would have happened without the German invasion and the atrocities committed by Germans against Poles. This is generally accepted in Germany, as is the loss of the Eastern territories, any territorial revisionism died a long time ago. But given this background, the persistent claims by many Poles that Poland wasn't compensated at all are hard to take seriously. For a nation that is supposedly so Catholic I can't detect much forgiveness either, just carefully nourished and never-ending resentment. For someone who called me "humorless" earlier in this thread, you don't seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke
Poles better watch their back. Should call them Vistulans really.
I think this picture quite accurately captures how good Macron has managed to present himself as 'a man without a face', quite a clever strategy considering how divisive French politics is becoming (which I think may ultimately be a sign of vigour, seemingly lacking everywhere else in W.Europe)
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/097/710/d2aReplies: @songbird
That is funny how Macron ragged on the Amish.
Wonder if they read about it in one of their magazine-newsletters. Probably not.
I don't know if this is the exact link you posted back when, but I read a couple of that author's pieces and this is the one that I bookmarked:
https://lateralthinkingtechnology.wordpress.com/2021/08/16/the-taliban-at-the-wto-or-the-strange-divorce-of-liberalism-and-capitalism/
I had an inkling you might have been the author and the writing has a CCRU vibe. That is a crippling lifestyle I wouldn't wish for anybody, though.Replies: @Yellowface Anon
I’m not the author but their writing (even if we disagree on more than a few points) is mostly based. Just look at his most recent defense of being a Juche tankie.
National opinions coalesce somewhat in war. IMO, it is a natural and inevitable process. Frankly, at times, it does have its ugly aspects, like the approval of Bush which led to the US invasion of Iraq, or the Mỹ Lai massacre in Vietnam, which many conservatives dismissed at the time, not believing in it.
That’s the bitch of it, from a nationalist perspective. Group loyalty impulse can be taken for granted and pissed on every day of the week by the regime, and then, it is evoked and encouraged in war, where it can lead to some nasty things. The best aspects of it are ignored and wasted, and the worst aspects encouraged and then later cited to tarnish it.
But I don’t see the point in apportioning blame to civilians. What exactly is Visegrad 24 after? Does he fantasize about bombing them? That would only bring retaliation.
I cannot believe that. Normal women do not think that way.
Of course there are people who fantasize that this war will end with Russia being totally defeated, magically stripped of its nuclear weapons and dismembered into statelets (saw some crazy Swede - iirc from some think tank - proposing this on Twitter recently...anti-Russian Swedes are even weirder than Balts or Poles who at least have understandable reasons...but Swedes? Are they still angry over the empire they lost 300 years ago?). I guess when you think that's a realistic and desirable outcome, then you can indulge the fantasies about collective punishment of all Russians that are implicit in the claims about collective guilt.Replies: @songbird, @Thulean Friend
NATO admitting Baltic States is the form of security guarantee the US and EU provide them. If they left Baltics to Russia in the case of an invasion NATO’s credibility is done. (Russophiles would then want the invasion, tho NATO should just kick out the US, Canada and non-European members out and reform into an all-European military to couple with a reorganized and nationalist European superstructure)
You do make some curious leaps sometimes, but my 9 year old seeing WW2 coming from the historical context because of perceived unhappiness in the household seems a particularly interesting one.
To set your mind at ease, we really do have a lot of fun around here. We’re hardly all grim faced and putting off WW2 vibes!
I do agree that there is a lot of stupid larping, such as the Jan. 6th “insurrection”, but that the levels of fundamental disagreement seem very high. As I already mentioned, it’s not that these disagreements can’t be papered over since they often can be. Sometimes not, and economic tensions and scarcity can be a powerful trigger for things to flare up more meaningfully.
I don’t have a firm opinion on where we are headed, but I think there are plenty of reasons for potential pessimism. You may think I enjoy it, but I think it’s merely prudent to consider potential negative possibilities. I don’t base my life around them, but it happens that many of the things I gravitate to anyhow will also serve well in an increasingly relatively scarcity driven, post peak consumerist reality, should such a thing continue to materialize.
On the other hand, maybe nuclear fusion will become a magic energy source and we’ll all get to enjoy some future of limitless abundance. Personally I’d rather assume that social security will be long gone by the time I’m old enough to collect, make alternative plans, and double hurray for me if I’m wrong!
That's the bitch of it, from a nationalist perspective. Group loyalty impulse can be taken for granted and pissed on every day of the week by the regime, and then, it is evoked and encouraged in war, where it can lead to some nasty things. The best aspects of it are ignored and wasted, and the worst aspects encouraged and then later cited to tarnish it.
But I don't see the point in apportioning blame to civilians. What exactly is Visegrad 24 after? Does he fantasize about bombing them? That would only bring retaliation. I cannot believe that. Normal women do not think that way.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW
Good question.
Of course there are people who fantasize that this war will end with Russia being totally defeated, magically stripped of its nuclear weapons and dismembered into statelets (saw some crazy Swede – iirc from some think tank – proposing this on Twitter recently…anti-Russian Swedes are even weirder than Balts or Poles who at least have understandable reasons…but Swedes? Are they still angry over the empire they lost 300 years ago?). I guess when you think that’s a realistic and desirable outcome, then you can indulge the fantasies about collective punishment of all Russians that are implicit in the claims about collective guilt.
Probably said it before, but, IMO, one of the most eye-opening aspects of this conflict is how many people seem to dismiss nuclear weapons. For all the manifest fear about nuclear power plants, there seems to be a startling lack of fear regarding nuclear weapons. I wonder how many understand that Yeltsin nearly pushed the button back in 1995.
Another thought that comes to my mind is that finding underground water can be a very profitable enterprise. I remember from the times I spent in Chile that people there took the matter very seriously. If you find an aquifer you can suddenly turn a worthless piece of arid land in a very lucrative farm, which has led many people to become rich. With the climate they have in central and northern Chile they can grow most any crop, especially off-season fruit for the northern hemisphere. Of course, all the efforts I saw them making to find water is through expensive technology. Some imported Schlumberger devices based on seismic sounding, if my memory doesn't fail. I did hear people in rural areas talking about their dowsing skills but serious investors don't seem to pay attention to them.
Your proposed mechanism also sounds questionable to my non-expert ears. We must be talking of very weak electric fields that apparently cannot even be detected instrumentally. They use seismic soundings instead that infer the composition of underground layers through very indirect methods.
However, in this challenge I am on your side. One thing I noticed yesterday is that this looks like a very militant organization of skeptics and I'm sure they are keen on maintaining their record of nobody being able to win their prize. If you get to negotiate a test with them I would advise to be very realistic about what you think you can really do and make sure that the test measures that ability, not anything else. If they are honest and your skill goes beyond what scientific research has proven to be possible (any kind of dowsing) you should be able to find some agreement. I actually think that we are the sanest group of commenters on his site :-) Although, to be fair, Sailer also attracts some good commenters but I have the impression that their discussions tend to end up piling on on the same subjects. They're not as versatile as here.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa
I actually agree. It was intended as a bit of a joke. Somehow I can just imagine Ron Unz finding discussions or dowsing etc. as the weirdest thing on his site. It just struck me as an amusing thought!
Another thought that comes to my mind is that finding underground water can be a very profitable enterprise. I remember from the times I spent in Chile that people there took the matter very seriously. If you find an aquifer you can suddenly turn a worthless piece of arid land in a very lucrative farm, which has led many people to become rich. With the climate they have in central and northern Chile they can grow most any crop, especially off-season fruit for the northern hemisphere. Of course, all the efforts I saw them making to find water is through expensive technology. Some imported Schlumberger devices based on seismic sounding, if my memory doesn't fail. I did hear people in rural areas talking about their dowsing skills but serious investors don't seem to pay attention to them.
Your proposed mechanism also sounds questionable to my non-expert ears. We must be talking of very weak electric fields that apparently cannot even be detected instrumentally. They use seismic soundings instead that infer the composition of underground layers through very indirect methods.
However, in this challenge I am on your side. One thing I noticed yesterday is that this looks like a very militant organization of skeptics and I'm sure they are keen on maintaining their record of nobody being able to win their prize. If you get to negotiate a test with them I would advise to be very realistic about what you think you can really do and make sure that the test measures that ability, not anything else. If they are honest and your skill goes beyond what scientific research has proven to be possible (any kind of dowsing) you should be able to find some agreement. I actually think that we are the sanest group of commenters on his site :-) Although, to be fair, Sailer also attracts some good commenters but I have the impression that their discussions tend to end up piling on on the same subjects. They're not as versatile as here.Replies: @Barbarossa, @Barbarossa
If I do go out to California to try it out, I’ll definitely be going to win it. I’ll make it into a fun trip too, but I’m not going if I’m not reasonably sure it’s not a waste of my time. Whether or not I get a trial with our prize offering skeptics, I’m feeling as though it would be an interesting experiment to test myself under more rigorous and falsifiable circumstances. I would certainly want to test myself under equally rigorous conditions if I was to take a trip out there.
I may start by asking someone with a known (not to me) septic system location and start there.
I’m interested personally in how this would turn out under more rigorous conditions since I’d rather be wrong than a fool. It would disappointing to know that I was laboring under a mistaken assumption now, but I would rather know. All sorts of intelligent people operate under false pretenses and it would be silly to think that I was immune!
As far as my proposed explanation goes, I really haven’t the foggiest idea of whether it is even plausible. I build things for a living and while I have good problem solving skills, I do not have any real idea of the potential science involved. I suppose it’s a moot point until my supposed ability is proven beyond a reasonable doubt. If we cross that hurdle, I’ll get into the nitty gritty of bothering science types for a plausible framework.
I can report that I did get an email back from the CFIG!
Dear Challenger,
We have received your claim of a supernatural or paranormal ability that you believe could win the CFIIG Paranormal Challenge. Thank you for your interest.
All of our staff are volunteers, all are presently working with other applicants. When an investigator becomes available, that person will contact you. Unfortunately, I cannot predict when that will happen. We take people on a first-come, first-served basis, and there are many people on our waiting list.
Please use the ID code in the subject line on all of your communications with us, so we can better keep track of your claim.
If you have any questions about the process, feel free to send me a message.
Sincerely,
Louis Hillman, Ph. D.
CFIIG Challenge Coordinator
Not really very exciting thus far, sadly. I’m on hold. Hmmm. If only I could find a psychic to tell me how long I’ll remain on the waiting list….
Changing the subject, where do you get your seeds? Whenever I want to try something out of the ordinary for this area, I run into problems finding small amounts of seeds for sowing. This year I am planning to test a patch of linseed for oil and fodder (it seems to boost the levels of omega3 fatty acids in eggs and fat) but all the packets of seeds I see online are either for flowers (a different species) or ridiculously expensive.
Of course there are people who fantasize that this war will end with Russia being totally defeated, magically stripped of its nuclear weapons and dismembered into statelets (saw some crazy Swede - iirc from some think tank - proposing this on Twitter recently...anti-Russian Swedes are even weirder than Balts or Poles who at least have understandable reasons...but Swedes? Are they still angry over the empire they lost 300 years ago?). I guess when you think that's a realistic and desirable outcome, then you can indulge the fantasies about collective punishment of all Russians that are implicit in the claims about collective guilt.Replies: @songbird, @Thulean Friend
With a Swede, I would suspect that it was about progressive politics. I still think it is amazing that they funded black African militants.
Probably said it before, but, IMO, one of the most eye-opening aspects of this conflict is how many people seem to dismiss nuclear weapons. For all the manifest fear about nuclear power plants, there seems to be a startling lack of fear regarding nuclear weapons. I wonder how many understand that Yeltsin nearly pushed the button back in 1995.
That's the bitch of it, from a nationalist perspective. Group loyalty impulse can be taken for granted and pissed on every day of the week by the regime, and then, it is evoked and encouraged in war, where it can lead to some nasty things. The best aspects of it are ignored and wasted, and the worst aspects encouraged and then later cited to tarnish it.
But I don't see the point in apportioning blame to civilians. What exactly is Visegrad 24 after? Does he fantasize about bombing them? That would only bring retaliation. I cannot believe that. Normal women do not think that way.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW
Well, at least you’re admitting it’s there. I suppose it’s not an unusual phenomenon with large nations.
I would most likely be supportive of the invasion if I were a Russian national (even if I would’t be an undereducated vatnik, it would still be a rather primitive sentiment). Although I’m not a 100% sure. The truth is that what is being done to Ukrainians is so awful that having 70% of the Russian population support it, just paints them in a very negative light and somewhat complicit in what’s happening, at least for the neighbors. But not just them.
Do you know which country he is from? Poland?
No, it’s not about bombing, it’s about highlighting the fact that this is not just the “regime”, it’s the population. The German population, too, after WW2 did not get off the hook. Afaik, there was a lot of hate and ostracism towards them after the war.
This Visegrad poster is most likely hoping for what General Ivashov predicted before this war (I posted that a while back), that the war could deal a massive blow to the Russian capabilities and could create a risk of fracturing or at least severely weakening Russia (which could still come to pass).
Well, it’s too late now. The war is total now. If you bring such immense forces into a neighboring country and start destroying their population, the likelihood is high that the war will switch to your side as well. There can be unpredictable consequences when you bring this type of a war on somebody’s territory. It’s the nature of this type of war, it would make sense for Ukraine to hit targets in Belarus or blow up the Kerch bridge if they could. Please try to view this from a neutral and abstract perspective. Not saying it would be good or not extremely dangerous, it’s just how it works. It’s very simple. When you hit somebody, you can possibly (or even likely) get hit back.
As to your concern about nuclear, weapons, I think Milley called his Russian counterparts and warned that the US will respond to the use of nuclear weapons.
This is probably not a normal situation, but in some cases women would do that. If she is in love with him, is not a 100% if she can keep him or considers him alpha for this pillaging (he could’ve brought her some jewelry he stole at a Ukrainian house, one dude sent something like 500 kilos worth of clothes and other items to his wife in Russia). Sometimes women when they are in love, they will share because they don’t want to lose the man. This used to happen in EE occasionally, maybe it still happens in Russia. But in this case he would clearly be coming back (as this would be a one time thing). So it may be understandable under some circumstances. They both know he won’t be punished. Ofc, it’s pretty crazy.
Here’s the video of the phone conversations that Ukrainians intercepted (they are now trying to track the looters and rapists). It starts at 0:58
Woman: “So… ok, you go ahead and rape the Ukrainian chicks. And don’t tell me anything about it. Got it?” [nervous laughter]
Man: “Aha. To rape and to not tell you anything?”
Woman: “Yes, so that I don’t know anything… so what?” [nervous laughter]
Man: “Am I allowed to?”
Woman: “Yes, I allow you to. But use protection.”
Man: “Alright”.
This is one of the reasons that I am a critic of the idea of making Russians pay. They already did this in Afghanistan, to an extent. But that was a long enough interval ago that they forgot, like the US forgot in between Vietnam and Iraq. I don't think that the short term lesson is worth the collateral damage and potentially longer-lasting hard-feelings that it causes. (which could precipitate into other wars, including nuclear) No idea. It could even be a multinational team. Possibly there is some amount of sabotage going on, right now.
I doubt that Ukrainians have the military capability to march in, right now, and, anyway, they would be nuts to do it, even if they did. They should keep their strategic goals to the rational, like trying to stop the Russian onslaught, or trying to get them to retreat. Maybe, even remote attacks on logistic centers across the border, with drones. But nothing rational touches on civilians in Russia. I don't know Russian, so I can't even evaluate the presentation.
I'd first of all suppose that it is fake. The world has a history of promoting the most horrible war propaganda. In WWI, the British press were saying that Germans were tossing Belgian babies into the air and catching them on bayonets.
Maybe, it could be some really bad joke? With AI listening to thousands of conversations and tagging the words and earmarking it for propaganda. But I would first of all suppose that it was fake. It is easy to fake everything now.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @LatW
Of course there are people who fantasize that this war will end with Russia being totally defeated, magically stripped of its nuclear weapons and dismembered into statelets (saw some crazy Swede - iirc from some think tank - proposing this on Twitter recently...anti-Russian Swedes are even weirder than Balts or Poles who at least have understandable reasons...but Swedes? Are they still angry over the empire they lost 300 years ago?). I guess when you think that's a realistic and desirable outcome, then you can indulge the fantasies about collective punishment of all Russians that are implicit in the claims about collective guilt.Replies: @songbird, @Thulean Friend
A combination of several factors, methinks.
1. Russia has been the primary geopolitical threat to Sweden since WWII. We never truly feared a German takeover of Europe during the war, knowing full well that we’d be given very favourable treatment if you had won. Russia is another matter. The Russo-Finnish war was an existential matter for us, which is why so many volunteered to fight for Finland.
That did not change during the Cold War. As I noted in a previous OT, we built a great many underground bunkers and there were serious plans drawn up in the case of Russia nuking us. I’ve read about these things in school and it’s a pity they were all atrophied. The plans were truly comprehensive, including things like food supply and very detailed orders what to do in the case of a temporary famine.
So for multiple generations, Swedes have had it etched into our minds that Russia is our primary threat. There was a slight dip during the 1990s and early 2000s, but the Crimea annexation turned things back to “normal” so to speak.
2. Sweden is more geographically exposed to Russia than Germany, which is not seriously threatened. In the event of any conflict with NATO, all Swedish military planners are fully aware that Russia would seize Gotland whether Sweden was part of the alliance or not… which is a significant factor pushing us in the direction of joining.
3. Sweden is not dependent on Russia for energy the way Germany is and outside of IKEA and perhaps SKF, there is significantly less economic interaction. Most of our fossil fuel needs (oil) are covered by Norway. We don’t import any gas from them. This does not limit our space for maneuver the way it does for Germany.
4. There is an element of conformity involved too. We tend to be “fast followers” at the current fashion. In the 1920s and 1930s it was “race science”, these days it’s neoliberal “Atlanticisim” which is the all the rage. However, I think this fourth element, while a factor, is not the driving force and shouldn’t be overemphasized.
More generally, I think rhetoric about dismembering Russia is pretty misguided and only likely to make things worse, since it plays into Kremlin propaganda narratives.
Found this piece about public opinion in Russia interesting:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/04/22/putin-biden-russians-existential-choice/
NATO has turned out to be very good and it does work as an umbrella, however, the fear is that if Russia were to attack they would “escalate to de-escalate” (threaten to nuke a European city in hopes that the West would back down and give up NATO territory). It’s been talked about a lot, maybe the odds of it happening are not as high, who knows.
We’ll see what happens, NATO might actually consolidate. The political developments in the US don’t look that great, but the West in general seems interested in keeping NATO around.
I’m just surprised that for some Swedes it seems to be really visceral, seems odd for a country that hasn’t been at war for 200 years.
More generally, I think rhetoric about dismembering Russia is pretty misguided and only likely to make things worse, since it plays into Kremlin propaganda narratives.
Found this piece about public opinion in Russia interesting:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/04/22/putin-biden-russians-existential-choice/
If NATO didn’t back down (by underestimating Putin’s willingness to act drastically), then escalation would go quickly and the entire North American landmass + Northern Eurasian landmass would be done. The 2 groups fantasizing winning nuclear wars are populous countries with enough people to spare after strategic nuke strikes, and Putin. It’s either catastrophic moralism or a blow to credibility, one feels good and one is rational for broader survival.
This is why the odds of Putin successfully annexing one of the Baltic states (my pick is Lithuania) is high, or we risk annihilation. As I said we all live in Putin’s brain, Xi or Macron or Biden.
They meant small, tactical nukes so then the US could respond with similar ones that they have on a submarine somewhere in the Pacific (although even in that case it could escalate further, but it’s not a 100%).
Remember that the Baltic States are very close to both Kaliningrad and St Petersburg, so throwing a nuke in that area is probably not that great for Russia and may not be worth the goal of expelling NATO (especially in its current underarmed form and especially given the conflicts in the south).
The location isn’t even the most important, but the principle, if he can escalate there, he can do it elsewhere. Hypothetically, there’s no end to it then. Their doctrine says that they reserve the right to use it first if their own territory is threatened and this is understandable and acceptable (in the case of such hypothetical invasions as if 500K Chinese troops were on their border or if the US made real threats in the Arctic). However, the problem is that now, after the recent events, they consider Crimea and even Donbas their territory. So, according to them, the doctrine applies there. So, hypothetically, if they had the capacity (which they don’t) they could go on that way indefinitely (grab a chunk of land, then threaten to nuke if someone objects because their doctrine now applies to that newly gained territory).
That’s why we have to reinvigorate the discussion about the legitimacy of countries’ national interests. Is the “interest” or privilege rather to carve out territory and then threaten with nuclear escalation legitimate from the point of view of the international community? I mean, the Russophiles sure as hell wouldn’t like it if the US, for example, did such things, now would they?
I know, we shouldn’t have to.
In the below video, the aforementioned "former mayor of Mariupol" was Kiev regime appointed and not democratically elected. Kiev regime lie after lie, half-truth after half-truth, they babble on with BS, which Western mass media is prone to accepting.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson (in a segment linked by Ron Unz at this thread) observed that unlike the Russian and rebel forces, the Kiev regime doesn't seem to have embedded journos with them in battle. You'd think they'd want them there to show off their claimed exploits on the battlefield. Likewise, Western mass media shills for their side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeEnCcn1S3IReplies: @Lurker
When you own a dog, you don’t bark yourself.
-
* Russian identity has been partly constructed this way, in second half of the 19th century, after importing the method from Germany. German romanticism has believed Germans were less civilized than France, but the reaction is "we have more deep culture based in the folk, etc". Later, there is copy paste of the German romanticism, but instead about "Russian soul".Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
The Baltic States have always been a bit more mellow that way, and there are other outlets for improving reputation / showing off (choir singing, drama, some people place a very high value & status there), but I know what you mean and there was some obsession with glamour for a while (not to the extent as in the Slavic culture, ofc, partly because we didn’t have the money). It has kind of subsided in the recent years with the living standards going up. I find Ukrainian stuff quite tasteful (their videos and movies are well done). This really beautiful prayer video just caught my eye on one of their streams, if I find it, I’ll share.
You can’t just “join” (or rather the correct term is “accede”, “accession to the EU”), there are a lot of hoops you have to jump through. Ukraine had started thriving already around 2016, if you discount the war, exports were up, etc. So Ukraine had a chance even on its own. Not that I’m against their eventual membership under the right circumstances. By the way, many Ukrainian nationalists prefer to keep their nation state without the EU. I’m not sure if they’ll be asked.
You’re right to some extent, Ukrainians are generally more relaxed, however, they had improved their military and they are good fighters. And, yes, I am aware of the differences between the Jewish people and Eastern Europeans. For instance, even in the EE, it’s somewhat typical for Jewish people to keep their yards a bit messy. They don’t fuss over landscaping the way, for instance, the Baltic people do. They keep everything that’s of value inside. Given their history, that’s kind of understandable.
I know and it is super annoying. And tiresome.
This is very very smart and the right way to go about it.
I couldn’t agree with you more. They should’ve prepared more and we should’ve helped them more (this is being discussed on some of their channels). They have a lot of fortifications in the East, they had increased the number of troops and at least they completed the Neptune (which is quite a feat).
But the very fact that the enemy was allowed to enter as far as places like Bucha which are middle class residential areas with new buildings is very frustrating. Yes, the roads need to be mined and one must strike the enemy convoy preemptively before they even enter the country.
They didn’t fully believe that the strike would come from Belarus (although people like Arestovych warned about it over and over). I don’t want to be too hard on them because it’s a huge country and they had already suffered a lot. This is incredibly unjust. And they’re amazing fighters (as seen on some videos). But they could’ve at least prepared for the evacuation of people in certain areas. I agree with you here a 100%. Maybe they simply lacked resources. This will be an issue of mental adjustment, if these border countries can become like Israel (not exactly the same culture, ofc, but whether they can create their own version of it). Things like female biathlon athletes that are trained as snipers, etc. It will be very hard because most people prefer to be relaxed and not spartan.
There are actually voices in their territorial defense saying that Ukrainians now have to decide if they’re going to be able to live that way. It’s sad… but maybe something good can come of it.
I didn’t just mean accent. Ukrainians have been quite accomplished, they have technical knowledge, they’re not retards like shown on some Russian tv shows.
Yea, but then there was another layer of Soviet urban identity where Russians were portrayed as very progressive. Either as some overachiever progressive foreman in construction or manufacturing, or some scientist or cosmonaut, etc. And how they brought civilization to all of us “younger brothers”. LOL. Kind of endearing in retrospect.
Most of the pro-Russian people seem to be saying that the best Ukrainian units are in the Donbas area, and are currently being surrounded and eliminated. If that actually happens, I think Russia has won the war, but if they successfully retreat, link up with the rest of the Ukrainian army and form a new defensive line, the result would be much more ambiguous.Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Yevardian
If you’re interested in hearing a less hyper-partisan viewpoint who’s been less laudatory than Ritter and the like about Russia’s performance, I’ve found this Michael Kofman to be (relatively) the most objective English-language commentator I’ve seen, and refreshingly unemotional. Something not to be discounted, I think all the other analysts you’ve been watching, he speaks Russian fluently. Apparently he’s a senior academic at the Kennan Institute, arguably one of the few American research bodies still interested in gathering real information about Russia, rather than rubber-stamping existing policy or disseminating propaganda.
The video here is a nearly a month old, but in the main, all his predictions have generally come true, he saw Russia’s initial performance as sub-par, but sensibly cautioned against Ukrainian triumphalism, arguing the Russian army would natraully adapt and learn after its opening blunders, as all functional militaries do. He predicted the conflict would evolve into an artillery war, and has also recently noted the caginess of Ukraine regarding what operation capabilities it actually has left.
That being said, his broader strategic or geopolitical analysis seemed lacking or doubtful, and on those areas I've rate him vastly less persuasive than individuals such as Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen who have been at the top of their profession probably since Kofman was in elementary school. Kofman doesn't hold a Ph.D. and he hasn't yet even published a single book.
Since Kofman is one of the main go-to experts for the MSM and he seemed to come across reasonably well in this interview from a month ago, I tried to find much more recent interviews on Youtube, but none seemed to exist. That raises my suspicions that he might be a little too "candid" on the military situation to be interviewed by the MSM/pro-Ukrainian side, while the other side already has Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, and others, and doesn't need him, especially since those other experts are vastly more experienced and credentialed.Replies: @AP
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307881
Although Ritter's views on WWII are ultra-conventional and I think largely mistaken, he can't be blamed for that since it's not at all his area of expertise, which was Russia. And I think his geopolitical insights on Russia and the reasons for the Ukraine war are absolutely correct and were totally lacking from Kofman's presentation.
Without understanding the geopolitics, it's very difficult to judge Russia's war-aims, and whether or not they may achieve them. So although Kofman's video from a month ago may be correct regarding tactical or even operational issues, I think Ritter's presentations are far more useful. Moreover, Ritter has 30-40 of direct military involvement, sometimes at a fairly high level, while Kofman's only background seems to be at various DC thinktanks and his writings only go back about a decade or so.
Ritter had some very unflattering but accurate things to say about the totally distorted view of Russia that had came to dominate DC thinktankery since the 1990s. And given that Kofman seem to be such a junior figure, it's unlikely he would be willing to break with that consensus.
I think if you watch an hour of the Ritter talk, you'll notice this huge difference with the Kofman presentation.
* Dark Blue = Eastern Euroepan Hunter Gatherer
* Light Blue = Levant_Neolithic
* Green = Iran_Neolithic
* Red = Sub-Saharan
A PCA of genetic distance:https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F44aa9fd5-7fe0-4ad2-ad3c-5c8fd056817c_1042x688.jpegReplies: @iffen
From Wiki:
Excellent posts!
What is the significance of Jewish ancestry to us non-Jews?
Shalom, you alter kaker you.Replies: @iffen
A123 is an Israeli propaganda bot.
It does not acknowledge concepts such as lying.
You can't just "join" (or rather the correct term is "accede", "accession to the EU"), there are a lot of hoops you have to jump through. Ukraine had started thriving already around 2016, if you discount the war, exports were up, etc. So Ukraine had a chance even on its own. Not that I'm against their eventual membership under the right circumstances. By the way, many Ukrainian nationalists prefer to keep their nation state without the EU. I'm not sure if they'll be asked. You're right to some extent, Ukrainians are generally more relaxed, however, they had improved their military and they are good fighters. And, yes, I am aware of the differences between the Jewish people and Eastern Europeans. For instance, even in the EE, it's somewhat typical for Jewish people to keep their yards a bit messy. They don't fuss over landscaping the way, for instance, the Baltic people do. They keep everything that's of value inside. Given their history, that's kind of understandable. I know and it is super annoying. And tiresome. This is very very smart and the right way to go about it. I couldn't agree with you more. They should've prepared more and we should've helped them more (this is being discussed on some of their channels). They have a lot of fortifications in the East, they had increased the number of troops and at least they completed the Neptune (which is quite a feat).
But the very fact that the enemy was allowed to enter as far as places like Bucha which are middle class residential areas with new buildings is very frustrating. Yes, the roads need to be mined and one must strike the enemy convoy preemptively before they even enter the country.
They didn't fully believe that the strike would come from Belarus (although people like Arestovych warned about it over and over). I don't want to be too hard on them because it's a huge country and they had already suffered a lot. This is incredibly unjust. And they're amazing fighters (as seen on some videos). But they could've at least prepared for the evacuation of people in certain areas. I agree with you here a 100%. Maybe they simply lacked resources. This will be an issue of mental adjustment, if these border countries can become like Israel (not exactly the same culture, ofc, but whether they can create their own version of it). Things like female biathlon athletes that are trained as snipers, etc. It will be very hard because most people prefer to be relaxed and not spartan.
There are actually voices in their territorial defense saying that Ukrainians now have to decide if they're going to be able to live that way. It's sad... but maybe something good can come of it. I didn't just mean accent. Ukrainians have been quite accomplished, they have technical knowledge, they're not retards like shown on some Russian tv shows. Yea, but then there was another layer of Soviet urban identity where Russians were portrayed as very progressive. Either as some overachiever progressive foreman in construction or manufacturing, or some scientist or cosmonaut, etc. And how they brought civilization to all of us "younger brothers". LOL. Kind of endearing in retrospect.Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya, @Dmitry
At least inner war propaganda efforts seem to be already directed to this type of mental preparation where every citizen, no matter the gender, can be a capable fighter, this probably has indirect reference to the story about mobilized UA post worker (they also are delivering state pensions for the elderly) who shot down RF plane:
The video here is a nearly a month old, but in the main, all his predictions have generally come true, he saw Russia's initial performance as sub-par, but sensibly cautioned against Ukrainian triumphalism, arguing the Russian army would natraully adapt and learn after its opening blunders, as all functional militaries do. He predicted the conflict would evolve into an artillery war, and has also recently noted the caginess of Ukraine regarding what operation capabilities it actually has left.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnD7gXGKR_gReplies: @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz
Thanks and I watched it. Kofman had been widely quoted in the MSM, and although he’s apparently a Ukrainian immigrant and I’d never previously heard of him, he seemed quite sober and responsible compared to my expectations. Indeed, on a few points I favored his analysis over that of Ritter et al, and I think a discussion between the two of them would be quite enlightening.
That being said, his broader strategic or geopolitical analysis seemed lacking or doubtful, and on those areas I’ve rate him vastly less persuasive than individuals such as Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen who have been at the top of their profession probably since Kofman was in elementary school. Kofman doesn’t hold a Ph.D. and he hasn’t yet even published a single book.
Since Kofman is one of the main go-to experts for the MSM and he seemed to come across reasonably well in this interview from a month ago, I tried to find much more recent interviews on Youtube, but none seemed to exist. That raises my suspicions that he might be a little too “candid” on the military situation to be interviewed by the MSM/pro-Ukrainian side, while the other side already has Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, and others, and doesn’t need him, especially since those other experts are vastly more experienced and credentialed.
If you walk around Warsaw you'll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to "Nazis" "Hitler" etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can't get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.Replies: @German_reader, @Yevardian, @AP, @utu
Time for a Poland post:
Chesterton, again:
“I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right.”
:::::::::::::::::
I just spent 11 days in Poland, helping family memories who have recently settled there from Ukraine due to the war and making a vacation out of it by enjoying a resort and thermal baths in the Tatras (wish the weather was better lol) and exploring a large urban city where I lived with Polish cousins (one of my grandparent’s siblings, married to a Pole, chose to stay in Poland after World War II while the rest of them moved to Germany and then USA and Canada).
I was struck by how kind and nice the Polish people were, almost everywhere. A local Polish guy I didn’t know at a tourist site bought me a souvenir book without asking after he overheard a conversation in which I was told they didn’t take dollars or credit cards; villagers guided me in their car as I followed in mine to places of family importance in that village in Lemko country in SE Poland (they had remembered that my family had once owned the village and told me some positive anecdotes about a locally famous relative – he was a Greek Catholic Ruthenian, these villagers were ethnic Poles, but they were great to us). While I have experienced kindness in various places I have visited (people are generally good), it seemed to be more concentrated in Poland.
Speaking of villages, rural Poland appears to be very prosperous, indeed much more prosperous than the rural USA by appearance. This is true of SE Poland, which is traditionally the poorest part of the country. Roads are great (thanks to EU funding) but the houses are also very new/modernized, and very neat. Nothing like the shacks and rundown trailer parks that are common in rural places in the USA such as West Virginia or even rural Maine. And I was taking a lot of backroads to get to old family villages. The explanation is that these villagers would go to Germany or England or France and work for a few years, pouring all of their money back to Poland. With this money they were able to build houses in their villages (where money goes further) that were equal to middle class housing in Germany. Some Poles have a love of Italy and occasionally one sees what appears to be a prosperous Italian house that is nicer and larger than many homes I saw when I visited Italy itself. I have seen similar thing happening in rural Western Ukraine but whereas in western Ukraine perhaps 1 in 10 houses have been redone to a prosperous Western standard (the contrast is jarring) and the roads are awful, in rural Poland it is about 95% and it’s like driving around central Germany except one is in the middle of nowhere. It really highlights how Ukraine has missed out by not going for the EU right away. The cost of being burdened with Donbas as part of Ukraine at independence.
Ukrainian flags everywhere in Poland. Numerous people have taken Ukrainians into rental flats if they own them, and many even into their own homes. My cousin’s Roman Catholic church is renovating some buildings that will be used as apartments for Ukrainian refugees. There are no Ukrainians there (my cousin is only 1/4 Ukrainian, no one lese there is even that), these are Poles helping Ukrainians. We saw a lot of Ukrainian refugees there, speaking both Ukrainian and Russian. They get free food from places set up in train stations and central squares. People from Ukraine not only get free train tickets but also free museum tickets, we saw many of them admiring Polish culture and art in for example the Czartoryski museum in Krakow and in a palace we toured in southeastern Poland.
Refugees are everywhere, they speak both Ukrainian and Russian. They are overwhelmingly women and children and from all social backgrounds; I saw quite a few ladies in new-looking Range Rovers with Ukrainian plates but also people who looked very poor.
Much fewer bicycles in Poland than in Western Europe or than in parts of the USA. However they have extensive bike lanes throughout rural areas, probably as make-work construction projects with EU funding so if one wanted to bike around the infrastructure is there. Trains are fine.
Poland still seems religious. I saw lots of young people at church. My niece (university undergraduate) found her boyfriend at some Catholic youth camp. My older high school age nephew spoke the Gospels at Mass. They attend Mass weekly. These are very attractive, athletic and popular kids from an educated and wealthy family; among Americans one sees this level of religiosity rarely and mostly in rural areas or among sects.
Spent a few days at a hotel in SE Poland where our waitress at the hotel restaurant had served American officials such as Blinken (it was the nicest place in town, apparently). Had drinks at the hotel bar until 2 AM with a diverse mix of contractors, aid organization people, and arms dealers (one guy claimed to be Europe’s largest arms dealer and after I google stalked him I saw that he was merely exaggerating), heard some interesting things from them about the war and Zelensky’s administration (which I won’t share in writing) after they’ve had 10 or more drinks.
A few photos (nothing touristy, google can be used for pictures of Poland’s charming cities and mountains):
Sikh organization giving free food to Ukrainian refugees right at the border:
From other organizations, there are also free clothes, free crepes (from a French aid organization), etc. It smells delicious. An aid worker complained to me about what they call “shoppers” – local Poles (typically the town drunk or something) who come in from the nearby village to get free stuff. They are chased away once identified.
American Patriot missile system (I don’t think it’s classified because its by a public road outside major airport in SE Poland):
Krakow train station; Ukrainians get free sim cards for their phones and other stuff:
And thanks also for quoting Chesterton which is always appreciated.
The refugee situation has some parallels with the attitude of Pakistanis towards Afghan refugees and with the attitude of south Indians to Sri Lankan refugees during the wars in those places. Both of those situations spelled trouble down the line but in the meantime Afghans and Ceylon Tamils owe a great debt of gratitude to Pakistanis and Indians respectively, as Ukrainians now do to Poles.
That being said, his broader strategic or geopolitical analysis seemed lacking or doubtful, and on those areas I've rate him vastly less persuasive than individuals such as Mearsheimer, McGovern, and Stephen Cohen who have been at the top of their profession probably since Kofman was in elementary school. Kofman doesn't hold a Ph.D. and he hasn't yet even published a single book.
Since Kofman is one of the main go-to experts for the MSM and he seemed to come across reasonably well in this interview from a month ago, I tried to find much more recent interviews on Youtube, but none seemed to exist. That raises my suspicions that he might be a little too "candid" on the military situation to be interviewed by the MSM/pro-Ukrainian side, while the other side already has Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, and others, and doesn't need him, especially since those other experts are vastly more experienced and credentialed.Replies: @AP
Stephen Cohen was an expert on Russia but not on Ukraine. There is this bad habit of Westerners assuming that experts on Russia also know Ukraine well, and thus getting things wrong. It would be like using specialists of German history to get all of one’s information about Poland or basing one’s knowledge of Ireland by relying on English sources. Yes, they will have a lot of information because it is a neighboring country, but it will still be rather skewed.
"I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right."
:::::::::::::::::
I just spent 11 days in Poland, helping family memories who have recently settled there from Ukraine due to the war and making a vacation out of it by enjoying a resort and thermal baths in the Tatras (wish the weather was better lol) and exploring a large urban city where I lived with Polish cousins (one of my grandparent's siblings, married to a Pole, chose to stay in Poland after World War II while the rest of them moved to Germany and then USA and Canada).
I was struck by how kind and nice the Polish people were, almost everywhere. A local Polish guy I didn't know at a tourist site bought me a souvenir book without asking after he overheard a conversation in which I was told they didn't take dollars or credit cards; villagers guided me in their car as I followed in mine to places of family importance in that village in Lemko country in SE Poland (they had remembered that my family had once owned the village and told me some positive anecdotes about a locally famous relative - he was a Greek Catholic Ruthenian, these villagers were ethnic Poles, but they were great to us). While I have experienced kindness in various places I have visited (people are generally good), it seemed to be more concentrated in Poland.
Speaking of villages, rural Poland appears to be very prosperous, indeed much more prosperous than the rural USA by appearance. This is true of SE Poland, which is traditionally the poorest part of the country. Roads are great (thanks to EU funding) but the houses are also very new/modernized, and very neat. Nothing like the shacks and rundown trailer parks that are common in rural places in the USA such as West Virginia or even rural Maine. And I was taking a lot of backroads to get to old family villages. The explanation is that these villagers would go to Germany or England or France and work for a few years, pouring all of their money back to Poland. With this money they were able to build houses in their villages (where money goes further) that were equal to middle class housing in Germany. Some Poles have a love of Italy and occasionally one sees what appears to be a prosperous Italian house that is nicer and larger than many homes I saw when I visited Italy itself. I have seen similar thing happening in rural Western Ukraine but whereas in western Ukraine perhaps 1 in 10 houses have been redone to a prosperous Western standard (the contrast is jarring) and the roads are awful, in rural Poland it is about 95% and it's like driving around central Germany except one is in the middle of nowhere. It really highlights how Ukraine has missed out by not going for the EU right away. The cost of being burdened with Donbas as part of Ukraine at independence.
Ukrainian flags everywhere in Poland. Numerous people have taken Ukrainians into rental flats if they own them, and many even into their own homes. My cousin's Roman Catholic church is renovating some buildings that will be used as apartments for Ukrainian refugees. There are no Ukrainians there (my cousin is only 1/4 Ukrainian, no one lese there is even that), these are Poles helping Ukrainians. We saw a lot of Ukrainian refugees there, speaking both Ukrainian and Russian. They get free food from places set up in train stations and central squares. People from Ukraine not only get free train tickets but also free museum tickets, we saw many of them admiring Polish culture and art in for example the Czartoryski museum in Krakow and in a palace we toured in southeastern Poland.
Refugees are everywhere, they speak both Ukrainian and Russian. They are overwhelmingly women and children and from all social backgrounds; I saw quite a few ladies in new-looking Range Rovers with Ukrainian plates but also people who looked very poor.
Much fewer bicycles in Poland than in Western Europe or than in parts of the USA. However they have extensive bike lanes throughout rural areas, probably as make-work construction projects with EU funding so if one wanted to bike around the infrastructure is there. Trains are fine.
Poland still seems religious. I saw lots of young people at church. My niece (university undergraduate) found her boyfriend at some Catholic youth camp. My older high school age nephew spoke the Gospels at Mass. They attend Mass weekly. These are very attractive, athletic and popular kids from an educated and wealthy family; among Americans one sees this level of religiosity rarely and mostly in rural areas or among sects.
Spent a few days at a hotel in SE Poland where our waitress at the hotel restaurant had served American officials such as Blinken (it was the nicest place in town, apparently). Had drinks at the hotel bar until 2 AM with a diverse mix of contractors, aid organization people, and arms dealers (one guy claimed to be Europe's largest arms dealer and after I google stalked him I saw that he was merely exaggerating), heard some interesting things from them about the war and Zelensky's administration (which I won't share in writing) after they've had 10 or more drinks.
A few photos (nothing touristy, google can be used for pictures of Poland's charming cities and mountains):
Sikh organization giving free food to Ukrainian refugees right at the border:
https://i.imgur.com/DFYFPHK.jpg
From other organizations, there are also free clothes, free crepes (from a French aid organization), etc. It smells delicious. An aid worker complained to me about what they call "shoppers" - local Poles (typically the town drunk or something) who come in from the nearby village to get free stuff. They are chased away once identified.
American Patriot missile system (I don't think it's classified because its by a public road outside major airport in SE Poland):
https://i.imgur.com/81u2nOb.jpg
Krakow train station; Ukrainians get free sim cards for their phones and other stuff:
https://i.imgur.com/brQZU7G.jpgReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend, @RSDB
Sounds like you had a successful trip. I’m assuming that you’ve returned to your home? A little more about the humanitarian aid stations that you saw, and how they’re operating would be helpful? Were you there for the Easter holidays?
What is the significance of Jewish ancestry to us non-Jews?Replies: @Yahya
Well the facts are what they are; but people’s interpretations and conclusions will depend on their prior political views and inclinations. In other words, I don’t think knowledge of Jewish ancestry will change people’s opinions of the Israeli-Palestine conflict.
One obstacle many Arabs encounter when it comes to accepting Israel is that Jews seem “alien” and are regarded as colonists and interlopers. This is especially true of the Ashkenazim, whose semi-European appearance and cultural mores make them stand out from the Middle Eastern population surrounding them. Of course being regarded as alien has been a persistent problem for Ashkenazi Jews for the past 2,000 since they were exiled from their homeland by the Romans. The problem in its essence is that Ashkenazi Jews are neither fully European nor fully Middle Eastern, but a mix of both. That’s why Middle Easterners and Europeans have trouble accepting them as one of their own.
Mizrahi Jews on the other hand were generally accepted by their MENA homelands prior to the formation of Israel. Before the founding of Israel, many Mizrahi Jews were prominent across the Arab world in television and music. Some examples include Iraqi Jewish singer Salima Pasha, Moroccan Jewish singer Zohra Al-Fasiyya, and Egyptian Jewish actress Leila Murad. (Albeit there was occasional harassment and persecution of Jews, who were in the main second-class citizens. There were massacres of Jews by mobs in Tetuán in Morocco in 1790; in Mashhad and Barfurush in Persia in 1839 and 1867, respectively; and in Baghdad in 1828. The Jewish quarter of Fez was almost destroyed in 1912 by a Muslim mob; and pro-Nazi mobs slaughtered dozens of Jews in Baghdad in 1941).
Today there is animosity towards Mizrahi Jews among Arabs for siding with Israel, but I’m unsure whether they are regarded as alien interlopers as are the Ashkenazim. You can see in this video that Palestinians generally accept the Mizrahim as Arabs, though they stress that they are Jews first then Arabs:
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op_0_vKZ2rQ&ab_channel=CoreyGil-Shuster)
I think most Israeli society, with the exception of a few religious nutters, recognize that Palestinians are indigenous to the land, even if they deny them the right to statehood and/or are supportive of expulsions and annexations. Some early Zionists like Yitzhak Epstein and Nissim Malul even attempted to reconcile Jewish and Arab national aspirations by fusing them into a unitary “Semitic Nationalism” (though they were defeated ideologically by the population transfer advocates). Ber Borochov, a Marxist Zionist ideologue, tried to give such thinking an historical underpinning: the Arabs of Palestine were the descendants of the Canaanite and Judean rural populations who became Muslims with the Muslim conquest, and they were “close to us in blood and spirit.”
Most recently, the works of Israeli researcher Tvsi Misinai advance the claim that the majority of Palestinians are descendants of the ancient Hebrews who were allowed to remain in Palestine to work the land and supply Rome with grain and olives. Misinai states that Palestinians were aware of and spoke openly of their Hebrew origin, much like the Egyptians or Lebanese are aware of their origins in the ancient Egyptians and Phoenicians; until recently when their conflict with Jews made them de-emphasize their Hebraic heritage. Genetic studies reinforce this claim by showing that Jews and Palestinians share a common paternal Y-Chromosome lineage:
My conclusion from all this is that both Palestinians and Jews (except Yemeni and Ethiopian Jews) have a right to the land by virtue of blood and soil (viz. ancestry), which to me takes precedence over religious considerations. I recently watched for the first time an Israeli movie called “The Band’s Visit” starring Iraqi Jewish actor Sasson Gabbon and Moroccan Jewish actress Ronit Elkabetz; and was struck by the familiarity and relatability of these two Israeli actors. They came across as recognizably Middle Eastern. Put a Kefiyeeh on Sasson, or Ronit in traditional Palestinian attire; and you can hardly tell they are non-Arabs.
Ashkenazi Jews look and behave differently, but they too are at least somewhat Middle Eastern in ancestry. The capital and skills they brought also helped improve the economic and aesthetic quality of Palestine. Most of the recognizable landmarks in Israel/Palestine are pre-1948 structures, most eminent of which are the Dome of the Rock and Church of the Holy Sepulchre; but the Israelis have built some noteworthy monuments such as the Bahá’í Gardens in Haifa and the Church Of Annunciation in Nazareth; which add to the beauty and prestige of the Holy Land.
I suspect the vast majority of people grasp that the actual situation is 180° opposite to your assertion. Religious heritage creates rights to religious lands. Claims based on ethnicity are secondary, and those that undermine religious precedence are not durable. I think most of Israeli society is tolerant and understands that children did not ask to be born into Muslim Occupied Judea & Samaria [MOJS]. The Muslim settlements thus present a contradiction. Allowing the non-indigenous Muslim population to expand onto additional non-Muslim land is clearly unacceptable. At the same time, until Islam provides a new homeland, there is no place for MOJS colonists to go.
The level of security precautions are based on Muslim violence. If anything, they are too light as senseless Jihadi murders still occur. This violence has permanently quashed the idea of integrating large numbers of additional Muslims into Israeli society (e.g. one-state solution). The security issues are insurmountable.
There is some good news. The wacky, ultra-left grip on the Israeli Judiciary is finally slipping: (1) This ruling is only a small step, but a couple decades ago this result would be unthinkable. The judiciary should continue to shift towards centrist, common sense rulings. Without collaboration from far-left activist judges, the PA will have to live up to its obligations instead of making the situation worse.
___
The long term hope is for a New Muslim Palestine on current Muslim land. I have previously posted about the 'South Sinai' proposal, which is one possible option. If done properly there would be cash compensation for voluntary migration, plus those who depart would to escape highly corrupt Fatah and Hamas officialdom.
Hamas destroyed the fresh water aquifer for Gaza. The long term carrying capacity supportable by surface water is about ~500K, possibly less. Desalination is an unaffordable luxury. This physical constraint will encourage 1.5-2.0MM to voluntarily relocate when such an option is made available by Islam.
The minimum outlines for a solution are clear, funding is obtainable, all that is missing is the will to fix the underlying problems via Muslim Decolonization.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/04/12/israels-supreme-court-palestinian-authority-liable-for-terror-attacks-over-pay-for-slay/
I don’t think knowledge of Jewish ancestry will change people’s opinions of the Israeli-Palestine conflict.
have a right to the land by virtue of blood and soil (viz. ancestry),
I agree, and I give quite a bit of deference to the rights derived from blood and soil. That said, I don't believe it gives one group exclusive "rights" to govern. That authority must derive from some other source. As I have stated before, my complaint about Israel is the way that they are treating the people on the West Bank. I think that they should be required to declare all of them citizens or withdraw completely from the conquered lands. I don't know what the population numbers are, but since the Palestinians agreed to enter the current parliamentary governing coalition, I don't see why the Israelis can't just go ahead and end the apartheid and become a "real" democracy.
Lots of people bringing medical equipment and stuff like bullet proof vests over on the plane (I did the same – 9 large suitcases stuffed with these things). Pro-tip: Poland is a beautiful European country with renaissance cities, some Alpine nature, and very tasty cuisine. It’s also cheap. As such, it is a nice alternative to places like Germany. A bonus: if you bring stuff over with you when you fly over, you can write the plane tickets (and probably at least a hotel night) off your taxes as charity.
At the border are lots of aid organizations. It’s a mix of people (university student types from all over western Europe and the USA, pensioners cooking food). World Central Kitchen has a large presence. There are also freelancers. I met a guy (successful businessman from the USA), not Ukrainian, his wife died and he is restoring some meaning in his life by driving medical equipment over the border to Lviv and even Kiev and back. Guys with more of a risky mentality (not this guy) even drive to Kharkiv or Donbas. A few of those heroic volunteers have been been killed by Russian drones.
One thing I heard from trainers and contractors, not reported much in the Western media is that Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, while well supplied with arms, are not as well supplied with food. and that this can be a potential problem for combat effectiveness.
Our little church has been transformed into a hub of no small significance as a center of humanitarian aid. Last thursday during Holy week, in our mail we received 5-6 envelopes in the mail from various generous donors to be used for Ukrainian humanitarian purposes. All but one check were in the \$100 – \$500 range (quite generous and appreciated). One that really stood out, however, was for \$25,000! From somebody in the larger Phoenix community that nobody knew. Slava Ukraini!
The video here is a nearly a month old, but in the main, all his predictions have generally come true, he saw Russia's initial performance as sub-par, but sensibly cautioned against Ukrainian triumphalism, arguing the Russian army would natraully adapt and learn after its opening blunders, as all functional militaries do. He predicted the conflict would evolve into an artillery war, and has also recently noted the caginess of Ukraine regarding what operation capabilities it actually has left.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnD7gXGKR_gReplies: @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz
I’ve now watched the first hour of the new Scott Ritter interview I’d linked upthread:
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307881
Although Ritter’s views on WWII are ultra-conventional and I think largely mistaken, he can’t be blamed for that since it’s not at all his area of expertise, which was Russia. And I think his geopolitical insights on Russia and the reasons for the Ukraine war are absolutely correct and were totally lacking from Kofman’s presentation.
Without understanding the geopolitics, it’s very difficult to judge Russia’s war-aims, and whether or not they may achieve them. So although Kofman’s video from a month ago may be correct regarding tactical or even operational issues, I think Ritter’s presentations are far more useful. Moreover, Ritter has 30-40 of direct military involvement, sometimes at a fairly high level, while Kofman’s only background seems to be at various DC thinktanks and his writings only go back about a decade or so.
Ritter had some very unflattering but accurate things to say about the totally distorted view of Russia that had came to dominate DC thinktankery since the 1990s. And given that Kofman seem to be such a junior figure, it’s unlikely he would be willing to break with that consensus.
I think if you watch an hour of the Ritter talk, you’ll notice this huge difference with the Kofman presentation.
You can't just "join" (or rather the correct term is "accede", "accession to the EU"), there are a lot of hoops you have to jump through. Ukraine had started thriving already around 2016, if you discount the war, exports were up, etc. So Ukraine had a chance even on its own. Not that I'm against their eventual membership under the right circumstances. By the way, many Ukrainian nationalists prefer to keep their nation state without the EU. I'm not sure if they'll be asked. You're right to some extent, Ukrainians are generally more relaxed, however, they had improved their military and they are good fighters. And, yes, I am aware of the differences between the Jewish people and Eastern Europeans. For instance, even in the EE, it's somewhat typical for Jewish people to keep their yards a bit messy. They don't fuss over landscaping the way, for instance, the Baltic people do. They keep everything that's of value inside. Given their history, that's kind of understandable. I know and it is super annoying. And tiresome. This is very very smart and the right way to go about it. I couldn't agree with you more. They should've prepared more and we should've helped them more (this is being discussed on some of their channels). They have a lot of fortifications in the East, they had increased the number of troops and at least they completed the Neptune (which is quite a feat).
But the very fact that the enemy was allowed to enter as far as places like Bucha which are middle class residential areas with new buildings is very frustrating. Yes, the roads need to be mined and one must strike the enemy convoy preemptively before they even enter the country.
They didn't fully believe that the strike would come from Belarus (although people like Arestovych warned about it over and over). I don't want to be too hard on them because it's a huge country and they had already suffered a lot. This is incredibly unjust. And they're amazing fighters (as seen on some videos). But they could've at least prepared for the evacuation of people in certain areas. I agree with you here a 100%. Maybe they simply lacked resources. This will be an issue of mental adjustment, if these border countries can become like Israel (not exactly the same culture, ofc, but whether they can create their own version of it). Things like female biathlon athletes that are trained as snipers, etc. It will be very hard because most people prefer to be relaxed and not spartan.
There are actually voices in their territorial defense saying that Ukrainians now have to decide if they're going to be able to live that way. It's sad... but maybe something good can come of it. I didn't just mean accent. Ukrainians have been quite accomplished, they have technical knowledge, they're not retards like shown on some Russian tv shows. Yea, but then there was another layer of Soviet urban identity where Russians were portrayed as very progressive. Either as some overachiever progressive foreman in construction or manufacturing, or some scientist or cosmonaut, etc. And how they brought civilization to all of us "younger brothers". LOL. Kind of endearing in retrospect.Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya, @Dmitry
Care to share some good Ukrainian music? It’s difficult for non-speakers of a language to find music or movies from another region/country. I’m only aware of this Ukrainian patriotic song which I came across randomly on YouTube.
Don’t even know its name due to the Slavic script. Mr. Hack once shared a Ukrainian orchestral video in Christmas which I enjoyed listening to; but i’m interested in more traditional Ukrainian music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIJekxBXhp8
Here is a nice Ukrainian song sung as it should be IMO, without pop embellishments, by a singer born in the USA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qNdfkfIDNs
This one is often sung at diaspora Ukrainian funerals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjILnaBKzRw&t=102s
IMO, people don’t really understand war. Maybe, a bit of generational understanding can develop for increments of like 20-30 years, only to be forgotten, as cohorts age and new ones are formed.
This is one of the reasons that I am a critic of the idea of making Russians pay. They already did this in Afghanistan, to an extent. But that was a long enough interval ago that they forgot, like the US forgot in between Vietnam and Iraq. I don’t think that the short term lesson is worth the collateral damage and potentially longer-lasting hard-feelings that it causes. (which could precipitate into other wars, including nuclear)
No idea. It could even be a multinational team.
Possibly there is some amount of sabotage going on, right now.
I doubt that Ukrainians have the military capability to march in, right now, and, anyway, they would be nuts to do it, even if they did. They should keep their strategic goals to the rational, like trying to stop the Russian onslaught, or trying to get them to retreat. Maybe, even remote attacks on logistic centers across the border, with drones. But nothing rational touches on civilians in Russia.
I don’t know Russian, so I can’t even evaluate the presentation.
I’d first of all suppose that it is fake. The world has a history of promoting the most horrible war propaganda. In WWI, the British press were saying that Germans were tossing Belgian babies into the air and catching them on bayonets.
Maybe, it could be some really bad joke? With AI listening to thousands of conversations and tagging the words and earmarking it for propaganda. But I would first of all suppose that it was fake. It is easy to fake everything now.
China has been earning from the liberal economic order and has never set foot onto Taiwan. Xi wants to keep accumulating even if lots of policies e.g. COVID & plans for military reunification, are drastically counterproductive. Jumping the gun on Taiwan and trade, and they lose the chance to resolve the biggest geopolitical focus with the least cost (since Taiwan would rather stay quiet with their American arms).Replies: @A123, @songbird
I couldn’t get too far in the Juche tankie piece. I appreciate the critique of the sensational bankruptcy of the western system. But how can we fix it and what to try and nudge it towards? Most certainly not Socialism with N Korean characteristics if you ask me. They still have a wall there and it’s to keep N Koreans in, not to keep S Koreans out.
If S Korea is your idea of a great place to escape to that just about says it all.
The Koreans I have met in the United States are a good bunch. The guys in the news who were on the roof defending their shops with guns from the Los Angeles Rodney King riots might be the closest thing to great Americans I have seen in the mass culture in my lifetime. If we are lucky those guys like to have big families.
Seoul is within artillery range of the DMZ, yet it persists as the largest SK population center. There is plenty of land further South for much safer cities, yet everyone stays. And, their kids stay too. Being raised under perpetual threat encourages belief in self defense. Clearly, counting on California government for protection is folly.
PEACE 😇
If you walk around Warsaw you'll notice that all the plaques marking spots where Polish citizens were executed during WW2 are all defaced, with no sign of them ever being repaired. The problem? The plaques refer to "Nazis" "Hitler" etc as the perpetrators, not Germans in general, thus crybaby Polish right wingers have been inserting the Polish word for Germans onto all of these because they believe that Germans have got off lightly with WW2! (Maybe all those nice newly repaired highways and train stations throughout Poland should also have plaques indicating that German taxpayers paid for them). We made the mistake of going on a WW2 walking tour. Not two minutes in the guide had already disparaged the British and French for abandoning Poland followed by an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine as if it was of any relevance to the topic. Christ. What a truly unlikeable people the Poles are. Always the victims. Never guilty of anything ever. I can't get over how badly I misjudged this nation that is totally obsessed with their own victimhood.Replies: @German_reader, @Yevardian, @AP, @utu
“an unnecessary serious of insults directed at Russians over Ukraine” – For Poles and Poland there is no middle ground when it comes to Putin’s war. Poland unequivocally stands on the side of Ukraine and NATO. Emotions will run high and people will speak of their enemy harshly. There is no other way. This is how you muster the necessary animus for fight. People are not cold blooded killers who can speak neutrally about the enemy they must kill or who might kill them.
People there in Poland realize that the stakes are very high. This is not a war for an irrelevant piece of Ukraine’s territory. This war is about the future of NATO and EU and Europe in general and Poland in particular. Probably Poles are aware of it more than most. They see that there is a strong chance for Russia to be reduced to the third rate power and they won’t hide this unlike our media who do not want to reveal true objectives of the West that Russia delenda est.
And where did the fantasy of yours come from that you thought you did like Poland since 2015 or so? Because they did not get 2015 refugees or that they are somewhat more traditional by going to church on Sundays? Poland has not deceived you. It is you who have fooled yourself because you are ignorant and have no common sense. No different than with Russian and Putin fanboys you can encounter here at UR who know nothing about real Russia but who fantasize that an enemy of their enemy is their friend. Putin is not their friend though they made themselves to be Putin’s bitches.
One wonders why you're even still commenting here, now that you're no longer ranting non-stop about Jews like you did a few years ago you could just as well switch over to Twitter or Reddit. You're still as much of a lunatic, but unfortunately your current lunacy is socially acceptable, so you needn't hide it anymore on obscure sites like UR.
Ivan The Terrible Part 2. Reassured by Kurbsky, a Russian defector, the Polish court at about 2:20 assume the Muscovite barbarians are finished,
1. The 12 million Ukrainians, that Russia is hoping to conduct a successful counter-insurgency against in occupied territories, would likely require a constant presence of 200,000+ Russian troops for years.
This is the best case scenario for Russia on ending this war. It would be taking control of a Northern Ireland, but much, much more difficult.
2. As long as the West sends Ukraine $5 billion a month for their government to operate, and buys and sends enough weapons from their own arms industries, Ukraine will be able to keep fighting conventionally.
This means that Russia cannot just take a bit of Ukrainian land and call it quits. They need a Ukrainian surrender. WW2 should show how fast vast armies can be raised by European powers when backed by sufficient industry and when the nation is fully mobilised. This does not seem to be an option for Russia, which is fighting for no discernable war aim, but it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their home.
3. Sanctions are not a small deal. No one is helping Russia to circumvent them and they will destroy Russian supply chains. It just will take 3/4 months from when the war began.
And Russia cannot hope to end sanctions without Kyiv, or withdrawal.
4. Ukrainian forces are yet to sustain a significant defeat. They have conducted a successful defence in depth so far and have taken the correct path of avoiding major confrontations, while using small, flexible units to attrit and disrupt their enemy.
You can call this Ukrainian propaganda, but the fact is that Russia shows no appreciable territorial gains after 2 months of fighting on their own borders. Either the Russians are doing nothing or they are frequently failing and getting mauled
Also, obviously Ukraine has lost some territory, but no sensible defence is conducted on a line.
The 5% or so of their land that they have temporarily sacrificed would be ordinary, paltry even, in a successful textbook defence.
5. The only Russian successes have been in propaganda, especially domestically, but such lies, once revealed by reality, tend to backfire spectacularly. Then again, you're still lovingly promoting Ritter and MacGregor, who both extremely confidently predicted Russia's total victory over Ukraine 2 months ago. So it seems that some people want to be deluded.Replies: @Beckow
I did a rough a calculation (the lines are squishy) based on the Western maps and it looks like 15-20%, about the size of England.
\$50-70 billion annual subsidy to Kiev is unsustainable after 1-2 years. If the economy in EU stalls it will be politically impossible.
If Russia stays in the south-east it would be 5 million with strong Ukrainian identity, maybe 1-2 million resisting. It is a lot but they would be a minority in the region that has 15-20 million people with at least 1-2 million very pro-Russian on the other side.
The numbers you quote are not there. Ulster was settled with a compromise and the Irish side got all it wanted. Why didn’t Kiev do it in the Russian areas?
That’s why there is a war. As long as you are unwilling to address Ukrainian intransigence you got nothing.
If 100,000+ Infidels could claim blood & soil ties to land under Mecca & Medina, would they be welcome under Islamic law? These would become non-Muslim, shared cities.
I suspect the vast majority of people grasp that the actual situation is 180° opposite to your assertion. Religious heritage creates rights to religious lands. Claims based on ethnicity are secondary, and those that undermine religious precedence are not durable.
I think most of Israeli society is tolerant and understands that children did not ask to be born into Muslim Occupied Judea & Samaria [MOJS]. The Muslim settlements thus present a contradiction. Allowing the non-indigenous Muslim population to expand onto additional non-Muslim land is clearly unacceptable. At the same time, until Islam provides a new homeland, there is no place for MOJS colonists to go.
The level of security precautions are based on Muslim violence. If anything, they are too light as senseless Jihadi murders still occur. This violence has permanently quashed the idea of integrating large numbers of additional Muslims into Israeli society (e.g. one-state solution). The security issues are insurmountable.
There is some good news. The wacky, ultra-left grip on the Israeli Judiciary is finally slipping: (1)
This ruling is only a small step, but a couple decades ago this result would be unthinkable. The judiciary should continue to shift towards centrist, common sense rulings. Without collaboration from far-left activist judges, the PA will have to live up to its obligations instead of making the situation worse.
___
The long term hope is for a New Muslim Palestine on current Muslim land. I have previously posted about the ‘South Sinai’ proposal, which is one possible option. If done properly there would be cash compensation for voluntary migration, plus those who depart would to escape highly corrupt Fatah and Hamas officialdom.
Hamas destroyed the fresh water aquifer for Gaza. The long term carrying capacity supportable by surface water is about ~500K, possibly less. Desalination is an unaffordable luxury. This physical constraint will encourage 1.5-2.0MM to voluntarily relocate when such an option is made available by Islam.
The minimum outlines for a solution are clear, funding is obtainable, all that is missing is the will to fix the underlying problems via Muslim Decolonization.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/04/12/israels-supreme-court-palestinian-authority-liable-for-terror-attacks-over-pay-for-slay/
The casualties are probably much higher than this since Russian medical support was basically non-existent in early stages of the war, hence mass evacuation of wounded to hospitals in Belarus. They were even using medevacs to carry munitions (violation of Geneva Convention).
There is some unique psychology at work in South Korea.
Seoul is within artillery range of the DMZ, yet it persists as the largest SK population center. There is plenty of land further South for much safer cities, yet everyone stays. And, their kids stay too.
Being raised under perpetual threat encourages belief in self defense. Clearly, counting on California government for protection is folly.
PEACE 😇
"I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right."
:::::::::::::::::
I just spent 11 days in Poland, helping family memories who have recently settled there from Ukraine due to the war and making a vacation out of it by enjoying a resort and thermal baths in the Tatras (wish the weather was better lol) and exploring a large urban city where I lived with Polish cousins (one of my grandparent's siblings, married to a Pole, chose to stay in Poland after World War II while the rest of them moved to Germany and then USA and Canada).
I was struck by how kind and nice the Polish people were, almost everywhere. A local Polish guy I didn't know at a tourist site bought me a souvenir book without asking after he overheard a conversation in which I was told they didn't take dollars or credit cards; villagers guided me in their car as I followed in mine to places of family importance in that village in Lemko country in SE Poland (they had remembered that my family had once owned the village and told me some positive anecdotes about a locally famous relative - he was a Greek Catholic Ruthenian, these villagers were ethnic Poles, but they were great to us). While I have experienced kindness in various places I have visited (people are generally good), it seemed to be more concentrated in Poland.
Speaking of villages, rural Poland appears to be very prosperous, indeed much more prosperous than the rural USA by appearance. This is true of SE Poland, which is traditionally the poorest part of the country. Roads are great (thanks to EU funding) but the houses are also very new/modernized, and very neat. Nothing like the shacks and rundown trailer parks that are common in rural places in the USA such as West Virginia or even rural Maine. And I was taking a lot of backroads to get to old family villages. The explanation is that these villagers would go to Germany or England or France and work for a few years, pouring all of their money back to Poland. With this money they were able to build houses in their villages (where money goes further) that were equal to middle class housing in Germany. Some Poles have a love of Italy and occasionally one sees what appears to be a prosperous Italian house that is nicer and larger than many homes I saw when I visited Italy itself. I have seen similar thing happening in rural Western Ukraine but whereas in western Ukraine perhaps 1 in 10 houses have been redone to a prosperous Western standard (the contrast is jarring) and the roads are awful, in rural Poland it is about 95% and it's like driving around central Germany except one is in the middle of nowhere. It really highlights how Ukraine has missed out by not going for the EU right away. The cost of being burdened with Donbas as part of Ukraine at independence.
Ukrainian flags everywhere in Poland. Numerous people have taken Ukrainians into rental flats if they own them, and many even into their own homes. My cousin's Roman Catholic church is renovating some buildings that will be used as apartments for Ukrainian refugees. There are no Ukrainians there (my cousin is only 1/4 Ukrainian, no one lese there is even that), these are Poles helping Ukrainians. We saw a lot of Ukrainian refugees there, speaking both Ukrainian and Russian. They get free food from places set up in train stations and central squares. People from Ukraine not only get free train tickets but also free museum tickets, we saw many of them admiring Polish culture and art in for example the Czartoryski museum in Krakow and in a palace we toured in southeastern Poland.
Refugees are everywhere, they speak both Ukrainian and Russian. They are overwhelmingly women and children and from all social backgrounds; I saw quite a few ladies in new-looking Range Rovers with Ukrainian plates but also people who looked very poor.
Much fewer bicycles in Poland than in Western Europe or than in parts of the USA. However they have extensive bike lanes throughout rural areas, probably as make-work construction projects with EU funding so if one wanted to bike around the infrastructure is there. Trains are fine.
Poland still seems religious. I saw lots of young people at church. My niece (university undergraduate) found her boyfriend at some Catholic youth camp. My older high school age nephew spoke the Gospels at Mass. They attend Mass weekly. These are very attractive, athletic and popular kids from an educated and wealthy family; among Americans one sees this level of religiosity rarely and mostly in rural areas or among sects.
Spent a few days at a hotel in SE Poland where our waitress at the hotel restaurant had served American officials such as Blinken (it was the nicest place in town, apparently). Had drinks at the hotel bar until 2 AM with a diverse mix of contractors, aid organization people, and arms dealers (one guy claimed to be Europe's largest arms dealer and after I google stalked him I saw that he was merely exaggerating), heard some interesting things from them about the war and Zelensky's administration (which I won't share in writing) after they've had 10 or more drinks.
A few photos (nothing touristy, google can be used for pictures of Poland's charming cities and mountains):
Sikh organization giving free food to Ukrainian refugees right at the border:
https://i.imgur.com/DFYFPHK.jpg
From other organizations, there are also free clothes, free crepes (from a French aid organization), etc. It smells delicious. An aid worker complained to me about what they call "shoppers" - local Poles (typically the town drunk or something) who come in from the nearby village to get free stuff. They are chased away once identified.
American Patriot missile system (I don't think it's classified because its by a public road outside major airport in SE Poland):
https://i.imgur.com/81u2nOb.jpg
Krakow train station; Ukrainians get free sim cards for their phones and other stuff:
https://i.imgur.com/brQZU7G.jpgReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend, @RSDB
Oh my… I had kindly requested a travelogue but I never did expect we would be treated with such a fantastic report! AP, you are deepening your reputation as a one of the highest-quality contributors on this blog even more 🙂
This matches what Bryan Caplan, one of my favourite intellectuals, wrote recently. He had visited the Visegrad 4 countries as part of his book tour. The tour dates were booked well in advance but happened right after the invasion by coincidence, so he got a ringside seat at how each country responded. I will quote:
For those interested, he wrote a follow-up with some additional reflections here.
If they build it, they will come! Eventually!
Think Karlin noted that the Polish countryside was vastly more prosperous than the Russian counterpart, though he thought the cities were fairly equivalent.
From what I understand, the part of the country you were in is the most religious. So you probably got exposure to their “bible belt” so to speak.
LOL, if I had to guess you were in Rzeszów. I say that because Michael Tracey was in that city and recounted an extremely similar experience. It seems to be a focal point for a lot of Americans involved in helping Ukraine. What’s funny is that he had an anecdote about a braggadocious American arms dealer too. It’d be hilarious if it was the same guy 😀
People there in Poland realize that the stakes are very high. This is not a war for an irrelevant piece of Ukraine's territory. This war is about the future of NATO and EU and Europe in general and Poland in particular. Probably Poles are aware of it more than most. They see that there is a strong chance for Russia to be reduced to the third rate power and they won't hide this unlike our media who do not want to reveal true objectives of the West that Russia delenda est.
And where did the fantasy of yours come from that you thought you did like Poland since 2015 or so? Because they did not get 2015 refugees or that they are somewhat more traditional by going to church on Sundays? Poland has not deceived you. It is you who have fooled yourself because you are ignorant and have no common sense. No different than with Russian and Putin fanboys you can encounter here at UR who know nothing about real Russia but who fantasize that an enemy of their enemy is their friend. Putin is not their friend though they made themselves to be Putin's bitches.Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus
Great idea, what could possibly go wrong.
One wonders why you’re even still commenting here, now that you’re no longer ranting non-stop about Jews like you did a few years ago you could just as well switch over to Twitter or Reddit. You’re still as much of a lunatic, but unfortunately your current lunacy is socially acceptable, so you needn’t hide it anymore on obscure sites like UR.
My cynical view is that the potential military support that France (and a lot of other Western countries) is capable of giving Ukraine is basically a flash in the pan compared to what the US decides. At its heart, this is a proxy conflict, between the US and Russia, and the rabid enthusiasm of EEs blinds them to the fact that they are just tools of the US, in a conflict that will be paid for in the blood of Ukrainians, and that, at the end of the day, may not even prevent the Russians from marching through Odessa.
This is not about the inheritance of the Ukrainians being preserved, or Ukrainian civilians being killed, but about the hang-ups and security concerns of the Balts and Poles, etc., all cloaked in moralizing language, which is how all of politics seems to work now.
Not that I am totally without sympathy - who doesn't desire security? But to me, it seems like tunnel-vision. There's obviously a great deal of hypocrisy in their foolhardy attitude about what is happening to Western Europe. But the obvious question is, why aren't they content to be in NATO? Why do they feel like they need to bully everyone into dipping their hands in blood, pissing off the Russians, risking WW3, as well as blowing up their economies? (for the more energy dependent). And there is an even uglier side to it as well, like Visegrád 24 on twitter saying all Russian civilians are guilty.
On the political end, it seems like many are de-facto Russia-gaters. It is easy to predict the future dynamic among refugees.Replies: @German_reader, @LatW, @Thrax
Complete inversion of reality: the US was more than happy to leave Ukraine to Russia, but Russia fucked it up with the first invasion and now are essentially commiting national suicide. Putin has no idea how to use “soft power,” he’s just a bully who won’t stop until he gets a bloody nose. The US reaction to the first invasion was woefully inadequate, slapping a few sanctions on Ru and not sending lethal aid until late in the Trump administration; the exception was that US advisors did help reorganize the Ukrainian military command structure on Western lines and this has been an overlooked key to their success. The eastern Europeans want to see Russia’s offensive potential crippled lest they be future targets of aggression and how can you blame them? Putin proved all their fears justified.
But anyway, it is immaterial to what is happening now. The US is the major arms supplier. All others add up to but a fraction. Fits the definition of a proxy conflict when you are supplying billions of dollars worth of arms, and letting other people do the killing and dying. No, I wouldn't say this. He may have justified the fears of Ukrainians, but he's not going to occupy Poland and set up Russian barracks there, and Poles who think so are paranoid and delusional.Replies: @AP, @Thrax
Don’t see how it is possible to reach that conclusion. The idea that the US was content to maintain pre-existing spheres does not mesh with any number of factors, including the expanision of NATO into the Baltics.
But anyway, it is immaterial to what is happening now. The US is the major arms supplier. All others add up to but a fraction. Fits the definition of a proxy conflict when you are supplying billions of dollars worth of arms, and letting other people do the killing and dying.
No, I wouldn’t say this. He may have justified the fears of Ukrainians, but he’s not going to occupy Poland and set up Russian barracks there, and Poles who think so are paranoid and delusional.
Of course anything done by Russia would be incremental. Russia won't be able to occupy all of Ukraine but if theoretically it was able to do so than the Baltics first and then Poland would naturally be the next focus. So it is very much in Poland's interest (and those of the Baltic states) to prevent that possibility and therefore for Russia to lose in Ukraine.Replies: @German_reader, @songbird
I may start by asking someone with a known (not to me) septic system location and start there.
I'm interested personally in how this would turn out under more rigorous conditions since I'd rather be wrong than a fool. It would disappointing to know that I was laboring under a mistaken assumption now, but I would rather know. All sorts of intelligent people operate under false pretenses and it would be silly to think that I was immune!
As far as my proposed explanation goes, I really haven't the foggiest idea of whether it is even plausible. I build things for a living and while I have good problem solving skills, I do not have any real idea of the potential science involved. I suppose it's a moot point until my supposed ability is proven beyond a reasonable doubt. If we cross that hurdle, I'll get into the nitty gritty of bothering science types for a plausible framework.
I can report that I did get an email back from the CFIG!
Dear Challenger,
We have received your claim of a supernatural or paranormal ability that you believe could win the CFIIG Paranormal Challenge. Thank you for your interest.
All of our staff are volunteers, all are presently working with other applicants. When an investigator becomes available, that person will contact you. Unfortunately, I cannot predict when that will happen. We take people on a first-come, first-served basis, and there are many people on our waiting list.
Please use the ID code in the subject line on all of your communications with us, so we can better keep track of your claim.
If you have any questions about the process, feel free to send me a message.
Sincerely,
Louis Hillman, Ph. D.
CFIIG Challenge Coordinator
Not really very exciting thus far, sadly. I'm on hold. Hmmm. If only I could find a psychic to tell me how long I'll remain on the waiting list....Replies: @Mikel
So we’ll have to be patient.
Changing the subject, where do you get your seeds? Whenever I want to try something out of the ordinary for this area, I run into problems finding small amounts of seeds for sowing. This year I am planning to test a patch of linseed for oil and fodder (it seems to boost the levels of omega3 fatty acids in eggs and fat) but all the packets of seeds I see online are either for flowers (a different species) or ridiculously expensive.
Correct. what shocked me is that it looked more prosperous than most of the American countryside. Not southern New England or Vermont (where rich retirees settle or that serve as exurbia for New York and Boston), but Maine, upstate New York, obviously West Virginia, much of the Midwest. All these places looked a lot poorer than Polish villages along the San river and all over SE Poland. It’s not a bad life – work in Germany or UK for a few years, come back to your village and resume the rest of your life at the material level of a middle class German while hunting or hiking and otherwise enjoying the nature and fresh air in your free time.
My family originated in the SE but my cousin and religious family lives in a large city in the center (won’t name it), far from there. And my cousin told me that the SE is even more religious than the center.
:::::::::::::::
Your guess about one of the places where I was, is correct. The arms dealers I drank with at the hotel bar were British and American (there was an Iberian too but he didn’t talk about what he did). The Brits and Americans playfully argued with each other. They were all bragging in a funny way so I took what they said with a grain of salt but my strong impression is that they were exaggerating rather than lying. The aid workers did not stay out as late.
The American guy was a family man but the others were with young local women who were of a type that I did not see elsewhere in Poland. One of them asked by 70+ year old dad if she could get him a friend for the next night lol. Us Slavs could outdrink those guys, I noticed.
But anyway, it is immaterial to what is happening now. The US is the major arms supplier. All others add up to but a fraction. Fits the definition of a proxy conflict when you are supplying billions of dollars worth of arms, and letting other people do the killing and dying. No, I wouldn't say this. He may have justified the fears of Ukrainians, but he's not going to occupy Poland and set up Russian barracks there, and Poles who think so are paranoid and delusional.Replies: @AP, @Thrax
Probably not, but Putin did explicitly demand that NATO retreat to its pre-Poland accession borders.
Of course anything done by Russia would be incremental. Russia won’t be able to occupy all of Ukraine but if theoretically it was able to do so than the Baltics first and then Poland would naturally be the next focus. So it is very much in Poland’s interest (and those of the Baltic states) to prevent that possibility and therefore for Russia to lose in Ukraine.
Of course it's possible that Putin will escalate further anyway, enact total mobilization or formally annex the entire Black sea coast through fake referenda (something Ukraine should not accept and which would preclude any real peace settlement), but it would be dangerous to turn this into an all-or-nothing crusade where total Russian defeat is seen as the only acceptable outcome.Replies: @AP
Realistically, this was not going to be granted, and I imagine that even Putin understood that. Probably, it was a negotiating tactic. This would mean challenging NATO directly, and stepping under a nuclear umbrella. Would it not be unprecedented in all of history? Policymakers have a poor record of longterm thinking, so I would separate "desires" from "interests", as not necessarily being coincident. History is full of strategic thinking that has led to disasters and dead ends. The longterm interests of states can be hard to define, if we acknowledge that people are poor predictors.
If Putin is never going to invade Poland or the Baltics, it is probably not in their interests to antagonize him, which will bear other longterm and potentially significant costs.
Including the cost of misdirecting attentions and resources, as other threats loom.
Part of the problem here, is that there’s also a Turkish question. Russian ships in Sevastapol tend to keep the Turks sweating. That’s why the Turks probably have a role in the Moscow Cruiser sinking, its certainly why they have sold those Bayraktar drones and why they have been hosting negotiations. The Russian fleet cant replace ships via the Med either after the Turks closed the shipping channel. They lose if the Black Sea ceases to trade shipments through the Bosphorus. Ukraine isn’t merely an Eastern European Question. The truly Asian (Asia Minor) Turks with a toe hold in Europe (Constantinople) are a real factor here. They can alternately side with Moscow or whomever is aligned against Moscow. Total hostility to Russia isn’t economically possible for them. Nor can they side against the nations on the Danube which drains into the Black Sea too.
In this Sense Ukraine isn’t an eastern European question at all. It’s a Byzantine Problem.
But anyway, it is immaterial to what is happening now. The US is the major arms supplier. All others add up to but a fraction. Fits the definition of a proxy conflict when you are supplying billions of dollars worth of arms, and letting other people do the killing and dying. No, I wouldn't say this. He may have justified the fears of Ukrainians, but he's not going to occupy Poland and set up Russian barracks there, and Poles who think so are paranoid and delusional.Replies: @AP, @Thrax
NATO “expanded” because Poland and the Baltic countries begged to join. Ukraine was rather ambivalent before Putin’s first invasion, they had a pro-Western government that asked for NATO membership in 2008, but this was rebuffed.
The EU authorized €350 in military aid, the UK has sent thousands of ATGM along with AA, even non-aligned Finland has sent small arms iirc. Complaining about others doing the fighting and dying is laughable since Ukraine is willing to defend itself without our encouragement and your ilk are also opposed to direct intervention.
You probably thought that launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was delusional as well. Putin and the other revanchists are simply not rational actors, if they don’t invade other countries it will be due to their offensive potential being wrecked by Ukraine. Putin demanded that NATO withdraw to pre-1991 borders before this invasion
What is the point of an alliance with you? You offer nothing but your existing antagonisms. You are pure liability.Replies: @German_reader
Of course anything done by Russia would be incremental. Russia won't be able to occupy all of Ukraine but if theoretically it was able to do so than the Baltics first and then Poland would naturally be the next focus. So it is very much in Poland's interest (and those of the Baltic states) to prevent that possibility and therefore for Russia to lose in Ukraine.Replies: @German_reader, @songbird
There’s a difference between not wanting Russia to win in Ukraine/preventing the annexation of more Ukrainian territory and regarding this war as a chance to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia and impose victor’s terms on her.
Of course it’s possible that Putin will escalate further anyway, enact total mobilization or formally annex the entire Black sea coast through fake referenda (something Ukraine should not accept and which would preclude any real peace settlement), but it would be dangerous to turn this into an all-or-nothing crusade where total Russian defeat is seen as the only acceptable outcome.
Of course it's possible that Putin will escalate further anyway, enact total mobilization or formally annex the entire Black sea coast through fake referenda (something Ukraine should not accept and which would preclude any real peace settlement), but it would be dangerous to turn this into an all-or-nothing crusade where total Russian defeat is seen as the only acceptable outcome.Replies: @AP
The two are not completely unrelated. If Russia loses completely (military collapses as after World War I, even Crimea and DNR abandoned) – a very slight possibility but one that is higher than zero – there would likely be all sorts of instability in Russia itself, as after the defeat by Japan. Maybe the Caucuses would leave, maybe messy civil war as factions seek to take control, etc. In such a case it would be logical to pursue terms that would neutralize Russia for awhile (remove Belarus from its control, arms control treaty) although going overboard as was done to Germany after World War I would probably be a bad idea.
I do not think that the folks in the UK and other places like the US fully under implications of "Ukraine". Frontiers are elastic.Replies: @AP
imo goal should still be to inflict enough damage on Russia's armed forces until Russia agrees to a face-saving negotiated settlement (no annexation of further Ukrainian territory in exchange for no NATO membership and recognition of Crimea). But of course Putin may be too far gone for that, and given the nature of his personal rule there unfortunately doesn't seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. So I don't know, maybe things will escalate anyway, or turn into a permanent stalemate. But one should still at least try to keep options open.Replies: @Wokechoke
Thanks for that beautiful song. It’s interesting to see how Europeans of all latitudes seem to cultivate polyphonic music that to my ears sounds rather similar to each other.
I’m sure you’d fancy the Bresk-Litovsk Treaty borders that have Rostov on Don firmly in Ukrainian possession and perhaps also the Sloboda Ukraine area annexed (Included Kursk). I’ve read what certain eccentrics like that Canadian MacKay have said about this war stemming back to 1919…
I do not think that the folks in the UK and other places like the US fully under implications of “Ukraine”. Frontiers are elastic.
Is that a desirable scenario? I know the emerging wisdom seems to be that nukes are overrated anyway and don’t really matter, but I still disagree, nuclear-armed Russia descending into chaos isn’t an appealing prospect to me.
imo goal should still be to inflict enough damage on Russia’s armed forces until Russia agrees to a face-saving negotiated settlement (no annexation of further Ukrainian territory in exchange for no NATO membership and recognition of Crimea). But of course Putin may be too far gone for that, and given the nature of his personal rule there unfortunately doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. So I don’t know, maybe things will escalate anyway, or turn into a permanent stalemate. But one should still at least try to keep options open.
Of course anything done by Russia would be incremental. Russia won't be able to occupy all of Ukraine but if theoretically it was able to do so than the Baltics first and then Poland would naturally be the next focus. So it is very much in Poland's interest (and those of the Baltic states) to prevent that possibility and therefore for Russia to lose in Ukraine.Replies: @German_reader, @songbird
How many times has the US accepted an ultimatum?
Realistically, this was not going to be granted, and I imagine that even Putin understood that. Probably, it was a negotiating tactic.
This would mean challenging NATO directly, and stepping under a nuclear umbrella. Would it not be unprecedented in all of history?
Policymakers have a poor record of longterm thinking, so I would separate “desires” from “interests”, as not necessarily being coincident. History is full of strategic thinking that has led to disasters and dead ends. The longterm interests of states can be hard to define, if we acknowledge that people are poor predictors.
If Putin is never going to invade Poland or the Baltics, it is probably not in their interests to antagonize him, which will bear other longterm and potentially significant costs.
Including the cost of misdirecting attentions and resources, as other threats loom.
He’s using the ironic “example” of Juche to laugh at your cultural and ideological superficiality.
I liked the Russia-Ukraine piece. Please don't tell me I didn't get it. : )
https://lateralthinkingtechnology.wordpress.com/2022/02/28/the-real-war-will-not-be-trending-thoughts-on-ukraine/
imo goal should still be to inflict enough damage on Russia's armed forces until Russia agrees to a face-saving negotiated settlement (no annexation of further Ukrainian territory in exchange for no NATO membership and recognition of Crimea). But of course Putin may be too far gone for that, and given the nature of his personal rule there unfortunately doesn't seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. So I don't know, maybe things will escalate anyway, or turn into a permanent stalemate. But one should still at least try to keep options open.Replies: @Wokechoke
You need to look around Twitter and see the background of the Ukraine boosters. There’s a particularly fanatical Canadian called MacKay who reliably tells us he went to LSE. MacKay traces this war back to 1919…he’s a hyper-partisan eccentric in some respects but he’s well aware that Ukraine was set up in Brest Litovsk as a German client state and the borders included Rostov on Don and the city of Azov currently on the recognized Russian side of the Don. Ukraine was massive. He calls Russians Muscovites, which is pretty funny. he’s a Torontan Scot. Ukrainian cliams could expand rapidly.
Kursk is technically inside Sloboda Ukraine. that is the basis of the claim that Khuschev was a Ukrainian. Yes, a Sloboda Ukrainian. Hruschev married a Galician.
These folk like MacKay mean to dismember Russia as it now exists. This could ultimately suit Germany but it’ll lead to several wars using German troops. It’ll require us to arm Mongols to kill Russ in the Eastern areas.
Note that the Brest-Litovsk border closely corresponded to the February 2022 border in Ukraine's southeast (that is, neither Crimea nor Donetsk city were part of Ukraine) although it included territory of the old Hetmanate that is now part of Bryansk oblast in Russia:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/UNR_2.1918_Brest-Litovsk.png Both of Khrushchev's parents were ethnic Russians (the region had mixed settlements). His second wife was an ethnic Ukrainian from Lublin region which had been part of the Russian Empire, not Galicia.
The most Ukrainian rulers of the USSR were Chernenko (father born in Siberia to Ukrainian settlers) and Gorbachev (half-Ukrainian from Kuban).Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke
This is one of the reasons that I am a critic of the idea of making Russians pay. They already did this in Afghanistan, to an extent. But that was a long enough interval ago that they forgot, like the US forgot in between Vietnam and Iraq. I don't think that the short term lesson is worth the collateral damage and potentially longer-lasting hard-feelings that it causes. (which could precipitate into other wars, including nuclear) No idea. It could even be a multinational team. Possibly there is some amount of sabotage going on, right now.
I doubt that Ukrainians have the military capability to march in, right now, and, anyway, they would be nuts to do it, even if they did. They should keep their strategic goals to the rational, like trying to stop the Russian onslaught, or trying to get them to retreat. Maybe, even remote attacks on logistic centers across the border, with drones. But nothing rational touches on civilians in Russia. I don't know Russian, so I can't even evaluate the presentation.
I'd first of all suppose that it is fake. The world has a history of promoting the most horrible war propaganda. In WWI, the British press were saying that Germans were tossing Belgian babies into the air and catching them on bayonets.
Maybe, it could be some really bad joke? With AI listening to thousands of conversations and tagging the words and earmarking it for propaganda. But I would first of all suppose that it was fake. It is easy to fake everything now.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @LatW
Russia has already paid the liberals and Ukrainian secessionists in the 90s and Putin is Russia’s attempt to ask for a partial refund. If you tell Russia to pay again, down to their resources Africa-style, you will get a indefinitely antagonistic population because what Putin told them is coming true.
China has been earning from the liberal economic order and has never set foot onto Taiwan. Xi wants to keep accumulating even if lots of policies e.g. COVID & plans for military reunification, are drastically counterproductive. Jumping the gun on Taiwan and trade, and they lose the chance to resolve the biggest geopolitical focus with the least cost (since Taiwan would rather stay quiet with their American arms).
PEACE 😇
This one had a chronological series, each story taking place about a decade after the previous.
The first featured an appearance by Mao. The second was about the project to develop nuclear weapons - amazingly to me, seemingly quite pro-nuclear, though with some individual bitter-sweet elements.
The third story was pretty funny. It was about a neighborhood trying to watch an olympic volleyball match. Women's team, and when the American team was onscreen there was a black lady with short hair, and one of the Chinese asked, "Is that a man?" The Chinese team won gold.
The fourth story was about the handover of HK. The fifth about Beijing hosting the Olympics - am afraid the beginning scene included a black playing the bongo drums with his hands. The sixth was about a space capsule landing and two poor Mongolian dreamers helping to lift the taikonaut away from the capsule. The seventh about a woman fighter pilot flying in a formation that included a AWACS plane.
Anyway, I thought it was interesting how it seemed to be meant to show all these supposed accomplishments of the CCP, through time. And, actually, the first Olympic story mentioned that it was being broadcast to Taiwan. It made me think that China is playing the long game, in reference to Taiwan.
It is often remarked how Chinese media is not influential, but I wonder if it might still be having a growing influence on Taiwan.
You people are unbelievable. I think you might be setting a new global record for thoroughly obnoxious sense of entitlement.
What is the point of an alliance with you? You offer nothing but your existing antagonisms. You are pure liability.
What is the point of an alliance with you? You offer nothing but your existing antagonisms. You are pure liability.Replies: @German_reader
I understand your sentiment, but as far as I can see “Thrax” hasn’t even told us his ethnic background (is he a hold-over from the ancient Thracians?). Which imo should be enough to disqualify him from discussion, since there’s no way of even guessing what kind of ethnic or other allegiances might motivate him. iirc you once proposed labeling commenters’ names with the relevant information, great idea imo.
Care to enlighten us, Thrax? Or do you lack the courage to say it, when you are impugning those not wanting to join your war?
China has been earning from the liberal economic order and has never set foot onto Taiwan. Xi wants to keep accumulating even if lots of policies e.g. COVID & plans for military reunification, are drastically counterproductive. Jumping the gun on Taiwan and trade, and they lose the chance to resolve the biggest geopolitical focus with the least cost (since Taiwan would rather stay quiet with their American arms).Replies: @A123, @songbird
Why do you think my 100% accurate summary of the situation in Jewish Palestine deserves a “Troll” mark?
PEACE 😇
This is a nice one:
Here is a nice Ukrainian song sung as it should be IMO, without pop embellishments, by a singer born in the USA:
This one is often sung at diaspora Ukrainian funerals:
Good point.
Care to enlighten us, Thrax? Or do you lack the courage to say it, when you are impugning those not wanting to join your war?
Ukrainian women who were raped by Russian soldiers are unable to find contraceptives in Poland due to that country’s laws. All countries bordering Russia should stockpile Plan B in addition to munitions.
The area of Ukraine that Russia was forced to accept by the Germans at Best-Litovsk was not set up by the Germans but preceded them; it was the provinces of the Russian Empire with Ukrainian majorities whose autonomy had been recognized by Kerensky before the Bolsheviks came to power.
Note that the Brest-Litovsk border closely corresponded to the February 2022 border in Ukraine’s southeast (that is, neither Crimea nor Donetsk city were part of Ukraine) although it included territory of the old Hetmanate that is now part of Bryansk oblast in Russia:
Both of Khrushchev’s parents were ethnic Russians (the region had mixed settlements). His second wife was an ethnic Ukrainian from Lublin region which had been part of the Russian Empire, not Galicia.
The most Ukrainian rulers of the USSR were Chernenko (father born in Siberia to Ukrainian settlers) and Gorbachev (half-Ukrainian from Kuban).
Azov doesnt just refer to the Sea, but also the fortress founded by the Turks on the other shore.Replies: @AP
https://www.heritage-print.com/map-illustrating-brest-litovsk-treaties-19666009.html
He calls himself leftist libertarian just because he wants open borders and unlimited immigration. He published graphic non-fiction book “Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration”. So obviously when in Poland seeing acceptance of Ukrainian women and children war refugees by Poles he concludes what he wants to conclude that accepting refugees is not limited by capacity but by priority and thus:
Using the same template one could draw a conclusion from the case of the nymphomaniac Messalina having 100’s of lovers at one time that women have capacity for a massive gang rape and the only reason a gang rape is a problem it is because women still have some hang-ups about it: “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.”
I don't always agree with him, but even when I disagree he forces me to think through my position thoroughly, and he's always engaging. His arguments on education changed my views quite a bit. I am much less fussed with credentialism than I used to be, and have even come to view it as actively harmful for society.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iklHm0o-iM
I also think his critique of the concept of collective guilt is incisive.
I don't really agree with him on open borders; I do think there should be strict controls, but I disagree with rightoids that nationality/race is the primary prism through which we should judge people. I've had a long discussion/debate with songbird about this in the past so I won't retread old grounds.Replies: @Ron Unz
So Twitter is in the news… again. Whatever happens with Musk’s little adventure, we should be very clear that he bends quite easily when under pressure. So be skeptical when you hear outlandish claims that Twitter will fundamentally change.
When it comes to Western media & big tech, I have a pit of bottomless cynicism to draw from. Musk supposedly met privately with shareholders today, and everyone understands that this isn’t just a question of money… but also of political and speech controls. I am deeply skeptical that he would be allowed to take over without hidden guarantees on these questions.
Moreover, governments are already making their move:
It would be hilarious if Musk took control and was immediately faced with prohibitive legislation on both sides of the Atlantic. The NYT has already lamented that the US isn’t following in the footsteps of the EU, but that could just be a question of time. Perhaps this is why any potential sale of Twitter is no longer met with panic?
Regardless of what happens, the future of Unz Review is going to be brighter and brighter as the noose tightens elsewhere.
I do not think that the folks in the UK and other places like the US fully under implications of "Ukraine". Frontiers are elastic.Replies: @AP
You must be the most ignorant guy posting here. Review the borders I posted.
I don’t know, if UR ever got any real traction (which I doubt anyway, most of the content is only attractive for a limited audience), it would probably be banned. Or at least blocked in the EU. As disinformation seeking to undermine the democratic West on behalf of foreign adversaries. Free speech as a value doesn’t exist anyway in Europe and seems to be on the retreat in the US too, so I don’t think there would be much principled opposition.
I still frequent some subs on reddit, though the noose has tightened there too. One of the last holdouts had been /r/TheMotte which still had a vigorous political debate. Well, their moderation team has been receiving probing and mildly threatening emails from the admins. There is now an open internal debate on the sub whether to leave reddit entirely or just face the possibility of a sudden ban head-on.
I think there hasn't been much pushback until now as it was mostly the fringe being targeted. That has shifted in the last year or so. More and more communities face the banhammer, you get a critical mass built up. The problem is one of co-ordination. The censors are fairly unified in their ideology, whereas the censored are disparate and many groups despise each other. Can they put their differences aside for this noble aim? Perhaps not, but damned if we don't try.
China has been earning from the liberal economic order and has never set foot onto Taiwan. Xi wants to keep accumulating even if lots of policies e.g. COVID & plans for military reunification, are drastically counterproductive. Jumping the gun on Taiwan and trade, and they lose the chance to resolve the biggest geopolitical focus with the least cost (since Taiwan would rather stay quiet with their American arms).Replies: @A123, @songbird
Recently watched another Chinese movie My People, My Country (2019), which is another anthology film, part of the same series as the previous film that I saw My People, My Homeland (2020). Thought it was pretty interesting. Slightly less lighthearted and more nakedly propaganda.
This one had a chronological series, each story taking place about a decade after the previous.
The first featured an appearance by Mao. The second was about the project to develop nuclear weapons – amazingly to me, seemingly quite pro-nuclear, though with some individual bitter-sweet elements.
The third story was pretty funny. It was about a neighborhood trying to watch an olympic volleyball match. Women’s team, and when the American team was onscreen there was a black lady with short hair, and one of the Chinese asked, “Is that a man?” The Chinese team won gold.
The fourth story was about the handover of HK. The fifth about Beijing hosting the Olympics – am afraid the beginning scene included a black playing the bongo drums with his hands. The sixth was about a space capsule landing and two poor Mongolian dreamers helping to lift the taikonaut away from the capsule. The seventh about a woman fighter pilot flying in a formation that included a AWACS plane.
Anyway, I thought it was interesting how it seemed to be meant to show all these supposed accomplishments of the CCP, through time. And, actually, the first Olympic story mentioned that it was being broadcast to Taiwan. It made me think that China is playing the long game, in reference to Taiwan.
It is often remarked how Chinese media is not influential, but I wonder if it might still be having a growing influence on Taiwan.
Note that the Brest-Litovsk border closely corresponded to the February 2022 border in Ukraine's southeast (that is, neither Crimea nor Donetsk city were part of Ukraine) although it included territory of the old Hetmanate that is now part of Bryansk oblast in Russia:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/UNR_2.1918_Brest-Litovsk.png Both of Khrushchev's parents were ethnic Russians (the region had mixed settlements). His second wife was an ethnic Ukrainian from Lublin region which had been part of the Russian Empire, not Galicia.
The most Ukrainian rulers of the USSR were Chernenko (father born in Siberia to Ukrainian settlers) and Gorbachev (half-Ukrainian from Kuban).Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/map-illustrating-the-brest-litovsk-treaties-first-world-war-news-photo/1187598044
Azov doesnt just refer to the Sea, but also the fortress founded by the Turks on the other shore.
He’s an intellectually brave and thoughtful person, just as an intellectual should be.
I don’t always agree with him, but even when I disagree he forces me to think through my position thoroughly, and he’s always engaging. His arguments on education changed my views quite a bit. I am much less fussed with credentialism than I used to be, and have even come to view it as actively harmful for society.
I also think his critique of the concept of collective guilt is incisive.
I don’t really agree with him on open borders; I do think there should be strict controls, but I disagree with rightoids that nationality/race is the primary prism through which we should judge people. I’ve had a long discussion/debate with songbird about this in the past so I won’t retread old grounds.
https://www.unz.com/runz/open-borders-american-elites-and-the-minimum-wage/
And here are some selected clips from the debate, with the entire debate available at the article-link:
https://youtu.be/vbI9Rl2tX88Replies: @Thulean Friend
Finland will be in NATO this year or the next. Facing decreasing odds in Ukraine, Putin might want to flip the table and speedily annihilate NATO with strategic nuke strikes. Seems like brain problems are finally doing in one of the few politicians that could balance idealism and realism.
Both NATO and Russia have struck deals with the Devil, they will get what they wished all along on paper and promptly lose it all. What a farcical end for the West.
Predicting what politicians will actually do is admittedly tricky. However, there are massive obstacles to Sweden and/or Finland successfully entering NATO as a new member.
PEACE 😇Replies: @German_reader
Note that the Brest-Litovsk border closely corresponded to the February 2022 border in Ukraine's southeast (that is, neither Crimea nor Donetsk city were part of Ukraine) although it included territory of the old Hetmanate that is now part of Bryansk oblast in Russia:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/UNR_2.1918_Brest-Litovsk.png Both of Khrushchev's parents were ethnic Russians (the region had mixed settlements). His second wife was an ethnic Ukrainian from Lublin region which had been part of the Russian Empire, not Galicia.
The most Ukrainian rulers of the USSR were Chernenko (father born in Siberia to Ukrainian settlers) and Gorbachev (half-Ukrainian from Kuban).Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke
here’s another of that map.
https://www.heritage-print.com/map-illustrating-brest-litovsk-treaties-19666009.html
So if by "certainty" you mean an insistence that yes, we really do understand the underlying reality of things, then you may (or may not) be right about what modernity thinks, but you would not be right about me, personally.
I don't really care very much about 'ultimate reality' or 'the ultimate truth.' At least not in this life. Though I admit it can be exciting to think that, if there's a God, one of the things to look forward to in the afterlife is having this 'ultimate truth' revealed to us (whatever the hell that might mean). Was it merely a desire to be "tough" that led some to jettison prayer in favor of penicillin? In my view, the decision was based on a preference for ideas that work more reliably, rather than "toughness" for its own sake.
And of course one man's richness may be another man's superstitious idiocy. When we abandon, or radically downgrade, rationality and objectivity, then my fear is we open the door to all sorts of completely unfounded stupidity: telekinesis, pyramid power, healing crystals, Raelians; all of which draw succor from the notion that objectivity itself rests on unproven assumptions.
Finally, to answer a question you put to me earlier, whether it is "reasonable" to believe that light can be both a wave and a particle. I would have to answer yes, it is. It is reasonable to believe it because there is good evidence to support it. (Of course, most people, including me, accept that evidence on the authority of physicists, rather than because of having individually understood it - though this, too, is a reasonable thing to do.)Replies: @A123, @AaronB
Why do you think my 100% accurate summary of the situation in Jewish Palestine deserves a “Troll” mark?
PEACE 😇
would be more useful if the Chinese sank a container ship outside Taiwan. Might stop the headlong rush to World War.
That’s a pessimistic take, alas, I fear you may be right.
I still frequent some subs on reddit, though the noose has tightened there too. One of the last holdouts had been /r/TheMotte which still had a vigorous political debate. Well, their moderation team has been receiving probing and mildly threatening emails from the admins. There is now an open internal debate on the sub whether to leave reddit entirely or just face the possibility of a sudden ban head-on.
I think there hasn’t been much pushback until now as it was mostly the fringe being targeted. That has shifted in the last year or so. More and more communities face the banhammer, you get a critical mass built up. The problem is one of co-ordination. The censors are fairly unified in their ideology, whereas the censored are disparate and many groups despise each other. Can they put their differences aside for this noble aim? Perhaps not, but damned if we don’t try.
So if by "certainty" you mean an insistence that yes, we really do understand the underlying reality of things, then you may (or may not) be right about what modernity thinks, but you would not be right about me, personally.
I don't really care very much about 'ultimate reality' or 'the ultimate truth.' At least not in this life. Though I admit it can be exciting to think that, if there's a God, one of the things to look forward to in the afterlife is having this 'ultimate truth' revealed to us (whatever the hell that might mean). Was it merely a desire to be "tough" that led some to jettison prayer in favor of penicillin? In my view, the decision was based on a preference for ideas that work more reliably, rather than "toughness" for its own sake.
And of course one man's richness may be another man's superstitious idiocy. When we abandon, or radically downgrade, rationality and objectivity, then my fear is we open the door to all sorts of completely unfounded stupidity: telekinesis, pyramid power, healing crystals, Raelians; all of which draw succor from the notion that objectivity itself rests on unproven assumptions.
Finally, to answer a question you put to me earlier, whether it is "reasonable" to believe that light can be both a wave and a particle. I would have to answer yes, it is. It is reasonable to believe it because there is good evidence to support it. (Of course, most people, including me, accept that evidence on the authority of physicists, rather than because of having individually understood it - though this, too, is a reasonable thing to do.)Replies: @A123, @AaronB
Silvio – you make good points here than really need to be addressed and deserve to be addressed.
Like – you don’t care about ultimate truths, but are you reproducing the implicit metaphysics of modernity? So implicit that you don’t see them?
Does all behavior and life imply a metaphysics?
And – things that contradict reason are rational if they nevertheless seem to work. Yes! And this is one way out of the trap of modernity – reason itself tells you it’s rational to contradict it.
But I am right now embarking on a “mental fast” so to speak, where I am for a while avoiding all discursive analytical thought and philosophy and argument, and focusing only on experience – poetry, art, novels, and Nature excursions.
So I shall have to return to this important and interesting conversation later.
I don’t know how long I’m taking a break from discursive thought and logic and analysis etc – I’m playing it by ear. And I might post a bit about my experience of the novel I’m reading.
The Taoists had this concept of the mental fast, and so did the mystics – it is surely correct and true. I’m gonna post more about that later too.
Barbarossa – also in response to your post – I agree largely with what you said, and would like to expand, but for the moment I’m in time out.
For the time being all you charterers on this site continue to chatter the Great Chatter 🙂
PEACE 😇
“Oi, u luzi..” is a very famous Ukrainian patriotic song, done in many versions, it’s been picked up in Europe, there was even a German singer who did it in 3 languages (Ukrainian, German & English), it compares a low leaning berry bush in a meadow that needs to be picked up to the Ukrainian nation.
One of my favorite songs is “The Duckling swims” (Plyve kacha), it’s actually a requiem for a son, dressed up in the mother’s grieving. The duckling is one’s son and it invites one not to scold one’s little son because you don’t know if you could lose him. We don’t know when we will depart, where we will be buried and the mother is the one that carries the heaviest burden.
There’s a world music / ethno trance group Dakhabrakha which is quite popular in EE (and a little in the UK, too). Just throw in their name into Youtube, there’s a lot of their material out there. I absolutely love the so called Slavic female white singing, it might sound a bit crude to some but it is just so pure and naturalistic. In my folk singing tradition we have a little bit of it but not to the extent as in the Slavic folklore, the woman sings powerfully but at times sounds almost childlike with expressive and paedomorphic tones in her voice. In this style of singing you have amazing control of the voice but it also sounds very natural, as if somebody is just singing uninhibited in the woods or in the meadow. Mind you, this is not “real folk”, but the so called world music with Ukrainian themes.
I listen to a lot of patriotic Ukrainian music, but I’m reluctant to share it (don’t want to induce any cringe emotions in the resident Putinoids). But here is one kind of a folkish one, there’s that paedomorphic vocal again:
There are a ton of others, I’ll try to share when I have more time.
BTW… since you seem to be interested in Southern phenotypes, there’s an interesting Crimean Tatar actor / director, Akhtem Seitablayev (Ахтем Сеитаблаев). He joined the territorial defense units, very heartbreaking that an artist has to do that.
He directed and starred in a movie about the Tatar deportation (I know, I know.. “too much history” again), presenting an alternative narrative to the Russian Red Army movies. What I meant in my original post saying that Ukrainian videos are “well done” is that they are well produced, the movies that are more “deep” and avant-garde I still have to discover (so far I’ve limited myself to their historic dramas, but I’m sure there’s more serious movies with deep substance out there):
New membership requires unanimous approval from all existing members. What incentive do NATO members have for being dragged into a Northern War? Turkey and Hungary have good reason to veto attempts to provoke Russia.
Predicting what politicians will actually do is admittedly tricky. However, there are massive obstacles to Sweden and/or Finland successfully entering NATO as a new member.
PEACE 😇
Whether it's a good idea for them to join NATO is another matter. But there won't be any veto against them.Replies: @A123, @Mikel
This is one of the reasons that I am a critic of the idea of making Russians pay. They already did this in Afghanistan, to an extent. But that was a long enough interval ago that they forgot, like the US forgot in between Vietnam and Iraq. I don't think that the short term lesson is worth the collateral damage and potentially longer-lasting hard-feelings that it causes. (which could precipitate into other wars, including nuclear) No idea. It could even be a multinational team. Possibly there is some amount of sabotage going on, right now.
I doubt that Ukrainians have the military capability to march in, right now, and, anyway, they would be nuts to do it, even if they did. They should keep their strategic goals to the rational, like trying to stop the Russian onslaught, or trying to get them to retreat. Maybe, even remote attacks on logistic centers across the border, with drones. But nothing rational touches on civilians in Russia. I don't know Russian, so I can't even evaluate the presentation.
I'd first of all suppose that it is fake. The world has a history of promoting the most horrible war propaganda. In WWI, the British press were saying that Germans were tossing Belgian babies into the air and catching them on bayonets.
Maybe, it could be some really bad joke? With AI listening to thousands of conversations and tagging the words and earmarking it for propaganda. But I would first of all suppose that it was fake. It is easy to fake everything now.Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @LatW
There are many who do know Russian, millions in fact, who have evaluated such presentations (the Ukrainians have intercepted hundreds of phone conversations) and they have had a chance to evaluate, as you say, everything that is being shared. There is no surprise and no disbelief, it’s been done before, same MO. It’s just a glimpse into one aspect of human nature.
It is not a fake. At best, it could be a joke, a sarcastic conversation, which is bad enough.
I’m not going to bend over backwards to try to convince you, you are very closely attached to your bias and it is not worth my time to try to convince you of things that you will discredit by default. Just know that your picture of the world will be limited. All this stuff is out there, you’re just lucky you haven’t faced it yourself.
On the topic of total war: Ukraine has stressed over and over that they won’t breach Russian territory. They have stressed over and over “We want ours back, but we don’t need anything else”. However, as I said, the nature of total war is such that when things go THIS far, retaliation is likely. If the Congress votes for the Lend-Lease to go into effect, the Ukrainians might have the means to do those things.
It would be very easy to use facial recognition to scrape enough pics from social media to tell some sort of fake story. Maybe, even to pick faces that would predispose someone to bias. "That guy looks like an A-hole. And his women looks like a real hussy."
The story could very easily be fake. Or it might not be - it is not very significant either way. If you filtered the conversations of tens of thousands of people, you might get some cringe jokes or some juicy stuff. The more interesting stuff would be the higher ups. Not everyone's communications are as chaste as Assad's email. Nuland said some interesting things regarding Ukraine, and, in a separate conversation, Tymoshenko supposedly advocated nuking Russians.
Honestly, I'm not sure a full history of Zelensky's phone calls would be very flattering to him. Or Biden's to Biden. Or Putin's to Putin. Or grunts in the militaries of other countries, including the Ukraine and the US.
Predicting what politicians will actually do is admittedly tricky. However, there are massive obstacles to Sweden and/or Finland successfully entering NATO as a new member.
PEACE 😇Replies: @German_reader
Nobody’s going to block Finnish and Swedish membership, these are stable democracies with little corruption and no on-going territorial disputes. They would also actually be useful as members for a military defensive alliance, not a liability. Very different from Ukraine, let alone something like Georgia.
Whether it’s a good idea for them to join NATO is another matter. But there won’t be any veto against them.
I find your optimism about politicians performing competently to be quite surprising. If the vote were held tomorrow, you would likely be correct as politicians have difficulties resisting an emotional plea. However, there is a huge amount of preparatory time agreeing to & completing an Accession Plan before a final vote is taken. I see member countries as having sound national reasons to stall or veto.
I concede that my caution about the competency of politicians could cut the other way with little warning. NATO could make a dangerous mistake admitting new members.
PEACE 😇
Is it reasonable that such a commitment is de facto only decided by the applicants? Is NATO really a purely defensive alliance of the North Atlantic area? If so, why does non-European, non-democratic Turkey belong to it? Doesn't the fact that indeed none of us will be consulted if we want Sweden and Finland to join NATO reveal that this organization does not work under democratic principles?Replies: @German_reader, @A123
He doesn’t have to aim too high in steering to get over my head.
I liked the Russia-Ukraine piece. Please don’t tell me I didn’t get it. : )
https://lateralthinkingtechnology.wordpress.com/2022/02/28/the-real-war-will-not-be-trending-thoughts-on-ukraine/
Whether it's a good idea for them to join NATO is another matter. But there won't be any veto against them.Replies: @A123, @Mikel
So the politicians who decide such things would perform accurate analysis and base decisions on facts?
I find your optimism about politicians performing competently to be quite surprising.
If the vote were held tomorrow, you would likely be correct as politicians have difficulties resisting an emotional plea. However, there is a huge amount of preparatory time agreeing to & completing an Accession Plan before a final vote is taken. I see member countries as having sound national reasons to stall or veto.
I concede that my caution about the competency of politicians could cut the other way with little warning. NATO could make a dangerous mistake admitting new members.
PEACE 😇
Call me a cynic, but it is hard to find authenticity these days. We live in the age of deepfakes and Jordan Peterson voice bots. Not to mention, actors.
It would be very easy to use facial recognition to scrape enough pics from social media to tell some sort of fake story. Maybe, even to pick faces that would predispose someone to bias. “That guy looks like an A-hole. And his women looks like a real hussy.”
The story could very easily be fake. Or it might not be – it is not very significant either way. If you filtered the conversations of tens of thousands of people, you might get some cringe jokes or some juicy stuff. The more interesting stuff would be the higher ups. Not everyone’s communications are as chaste as Assad’s email. Nuland said some interesting things regarding Ukraine, and, in a separate conversation, Tymoshenko supposedly advocated nuking Russians.
Honestly, I’m not sure a full history of Zelensky’s phone calls would be very flattering to him. Or Biden’s to Biden. Or Putin’s to Putin. Or grunts in the militaries of other countries, including the Ukraine and the US.
Like - you don't care about ultimate truths, but are you reproducing the implicit metaphysics of modernity? So implicit that you don't see them?
Does all behavior and life imply a metaphysics?
And - things that contradict reason are rational if they nevertheless seem to work. Yes! And this is one way out of the trap of modernity - reason itself tells you it's rational to contradict it.
But I am right now embarking on a "mental fast" so to speak, where I am for a while avoiding all discursive analytical thought and philosophy and argument, and focusing only on experience - poetry, art, novels, and Nature excursions.
So I shall have to return to this important and interesting conversation later.
I don't know how long I'm taking a break from discursive thought and logic and analysis etc - I'm playing it by ear. And I might post a bit about my experience of the novel I'm reading.
The Taoists had this concept of the mental fast, and so did the mystics - it is surely correct and true. I'm gonna post more about that later too.
Barbarossa - also in response to your post - I agree largely with what you said, and would like to expand, but for the moment I'm in time out.
For the time being all you charterers on this site continue to chatter the Great Chatter :)Replies: @A123, @Seraphim, @silviosilver
The Old Testament, Psalms includes the concept of Selah, “To pause and consider”. While not a direct parallel to a fast, you will find adherents of Judaism & Christianity that will understand the Taoist concept.
PEACE 😇
Whether it's a good idea for them to join NATO is another matter. But there won't be any veto against them.Replies: @A123, @Mikel
No, but that is the problem. If you want to join an economic union you need years of preparation, strict convergence measures and acceptance of all members. If you want to join the military block associated with that union, all you need to do is just apply and your wish will be granted, even though a military pact is arguably a much more serious matter for the existing members than a customs union. We are the ones that are going to guarantee for an indefinite period of time that we will fight to defend Sweden and Finland from any potential enemy, if necessary having our children or ourselves being sent to their wars and becoming potential targets in a nuclear confrontation to defend their borders.
Is it reasonable that such a commitment is de facto only decided by the applicants? Is NATO really a purely defensive alliance of the North Atlantic area? If so, why does non-European, non-democratic Turkey belong to it? Doesn’t the fact that indeed none of us will be consulted if we want Sweden and Finland to join NATO reveal that this organization does not work under democratic principles?
I agree with your larger point though. Recently saw some Georgian whining on Twitter how mean it had been of France and Germany to block Georgia's NATO membership. Really absurd imo. And of course there are plenty of other issues with NATO which you allude to (indeed questionable whether it can be considered as purely defensive nowaday. As for Turkey, at least a semi-hostile state by now, the only benefit of their continued membership I can see is that it might keep them from trying something against Greece or Cyprus).Replies: @Dmitry
Even if a member state does not want to veto, there are all sorts of options to drag out the process. Especially since they went off script and bought into Russia's S-400 system. While they buy NATO gear they are also locked into buying Russian equipment. To keep that supply line open, they will continue to support Russian gas exports via TurkStream.
Turkey has been trying to join the EU for many years and has been stiffed. That alone is reason enough to treat Sweden and Finland the way the EU treated Turkey.
The fact that Turkey has an effective veto over NATO membership is actually helpful at this point. How is signing up to defend Finland in Turkey's interest? Even if they do not veto such a move they can keep it tied up in committee more or less indefinitely.
PEACE 😇
Is it reasonable that such a commitment is de facto only decided by the applicants? Is NATO really a purely defensive alliance of the North Atlantic area? If so, why does non-European, non-democratic Turkey belong to it? Doesn't the fact that indeed none of us will be consulted if we want Sweden and Finland to join NATO reveal that this organization does not work under democratic principles?Replies: @German_reader, @A123
No, of course not (and that’s not how it’s supposed to work anyway, even though the lobbyists for Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership have tried to obfuscate the issue). But it’s hardly likely that other NATO members will be dragged into a war on behalf of Sweden or Finland…imo the reverse is more likely, that Sweden and Finland could make themselves into targets through NATO membership, actually becoming less secure through membership in an alliance whose course they will be able to influence only to a very limited degree. If I were Swedish or Finnish I’d prefer sticking with well-armed neutrality.
I agree with your larger point though. Recently saw some Georgian whining on Twitter how mean it had been of France and Germany to block Georgia’s NATO membership. Really absurd imo. And of course there are plenty of other issues with NATO which you allude to (indeed questionable whether it can be considered as purely defensive nowaday. As for Turkey, at least a semi-hostile state by now, the only benefit of their continued membership I can see is that it might keep them from trying something against Greece or Cyprus).
Look who sells them equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_ForcesReplies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader
You can't just "join" (or rather the correct term is "accede", "accession to the EU"), there are a lot of hoops you have to jump through. Ukraine had started thriving already around 2016, if you discount the war, exports were up, etc. So Ukraine had a chance even on its own. Not that I'm against their eventual membership under the right circumstances. By the way, many Ukrainian nationalists prefer to keep their nation state without the EU. I'm not sure if they'll be asked. You're right to some extent, Ukrainians are generally more relaxed, however, they had improved their military and they are good fighters. And, yes, I am aware of the differences between the Jewish people and Eastern Europeans. For instance, even in the EE, it's somewhat typical for Jewish people to keep their yards a bit messy. They don't fuss over landscaping the way, for instance, the Baltic people do. They keep everything that's of value inside. Given their history, that's kind of understandable. I know and it is super annoying. And tiresome. This is very very smart and the right way to go about it. I couldn't agree with you more. They should've prepared more and we should've helped them more (this is being discussed on some of their channels). They have a lot of fortifications in the East, they had increased the number of troops and at least they completed the Neptune (which is quite a feat).
But the very fact that the enemy was allowed to enter as far as places like Bucha which are middle class residential areas with new buildings is very frustrating. Yes, the roads need to be mined and one must strike the enemy convoy preemptively before they even enter the country.
They didn't fully believe that the strike would come from Belarus (although people like Arestovych warned about it over and over). I don't want to be too hard on them because it's a huge country and they had already suffered a lot. This is incredibly unjust. And they're amazing fighters (as seen on some videos). But they could've at least prepared for the evacuation of people in certain areas. I agree with you here a 100%. Maybe they simply lacked resources. This will be an issue of mental adjustment, if these border countries can become like Israel (not exactly the same culture, ofc, but whether they can create their own version of it). Things like female biathlon athletes that are trained as snipers, etc. It will be very hard because most people prefer to be relaxed and not spartan.
There are actually voices in their territorial defense saying that Ukrainians now have to decide if they're going to be able to live that way. It's sad... but maybe something good can come of it. I didn't just mean accent. Ukrainians have been quite accomplished, they have technical knowledge, they're not retards like shown on some Russian tv shows. Yea, but then there was another layer of Soviet urban identity where Russians were portrayed as very progressive. Either as some overachiever progressive foreman in construction or manufacturing, or some scientist or cosmonaut, etc. And how they brought civilization to all of us "younger brothers". LOL. Kind of endearing in retrospect.Replies: @sudden death, @Yahya, @Dmitry
Back in 1980, you might not even be laughing so much. It’s not like anyone was predicting we could reproduce the end scenes of planet of apes within 30 years.
Ukraine also one of the worst countries to manage coronavirus in the world after Belarus and Russia (where there was only even more dishonesty). Notice something in common here, almost like we are the same societies. And the historical shock, is that in the USSR, there had been invested to build one of the most advanced anti-epidemic systems.
In Russia, life expectancy last year, was the same as in year 1964. Imagine living in 1964, and you dream almost sixty years to the future, and how advanced medicine and technology should be. But instead you will die in a simple epidemic.
It’s one of the famous “culture shocks”, compared to postsoviet society. https://youtu.be/hrt6-Cf9R5o?t=413.
But with Baltic states, I guess not so much already, as Baltic states have some modesty culture blowing down from Scandinavia. Does Scandinavia have an “evil eye” culture masked by rational progressivism? How they are imposing social pressure on each other to behave so well..
It can just be noise rather than signal, in these multi-year trends, when you need the multi-decade ones.
Ukraine economy was collapsing in 2014, so it is inevitable that 2016 should be positive. You know in Russia, there were often such kind of “trends”, which are more like “dead cat bounce”. In the 1990s it collapsed enough in various indicators, so there could be some “dead cat bounces” when the oil price recovered in the 2000s, just filling in for the overexaggeration of the immediate years before. But the multi-decade trends are a minimum distance where there is signal that can be interpreted.
Is the food situation stable in right-bank Ukraine at least? The southern and eastern regions must be very precarious now. Dmitri Alperovitch said that the Russian blockade is perhaps the greatest threat now, it’s already having global repercussions per friends in the Mideast, but that’s a story for another thread.
It is not polyphonic. But yes it is familiar of late 19th century or early 20th century nationalist composition, with the occupied nationality’s song in the minor key. And there are things like e.g. 7th on “our” before “Ukraine” for a little of unresolved or question.
Russia is beginning the process of blowing up trains, silos and warehouses.
https://www.patriotspoint.org/news-and-events/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/cole_attack2.gif
There is no comparable impact damage to the Moskva in your picture. It could be on the other side, but why would the source not share the better image?
Also, the damage vastly exceeds what a Neptune (150kg warhead) could deliver.
Something does not add up. Was there sabotage and/or crew negligence on the Moskva?
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @sudden death, @james wilson
Remember the Maine
I agree with your larger point though. Recently saw some Georgian whining on Twitter how mean it had been of France and Germany to block Georgia's NATO membership. Really absurd imo. And of course there are plenty of other issues with NATO which you allude to (indeed questionable whether it can be considered as purely defensive nowaday. As for Turkey, at least a semi-hostile state by now, the only benefit of their continued membership I can see is that it might keep them from trying something against Greece or Cyprus).Replies: @Dmitry
Turkey is one of the largest customers of the NATO allies’ military industrial complex.
Look who sells them equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_Forces
Look who sells them equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_ForcesReplies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader
if there was a torpedo it would have to be the Turks…Blohm and Voss I mean.
As a representative of former soviet brotherly peoples, I have a Kantian obligation to post Serduchka; Ukrainian folklore is a universal heritage of mankind, afterall this task could have been equally been fulfilled by Suddendeath, LatW and Yevardian (who will provide the Ararat) .
Look who sells them equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_ForcesReplies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader
Lots of submarines from Germany. Bad idea, Turkey isn’t trustworthy at all.
Azov doesnt just refer to the Sea, but also the fortress founded by the Turks on the other shore.Replies: @AP
Those weren’t all territories that were part of Ukraine.
The claim is pretty clear here. Krasnodar, important part of Ukrainian Life…Replies: @AP
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CK%5CU%5CKubanPeoplesRepublic.htm
The ambition is still there among the more ambitious Ukies.Replies: @AP
Is it reasonable that such a commitment is de facto only decided by the applicants? Is NATO really a purely defensive alliance of the North Atlantic area? If so, why does non-European, non-democratic Turkey belong to it? Doesn't the fact that indeed none of us will be consulted if we want Sweden and Finland to join NATO reveal that this organization does not work under democratic principles?Replies: @German_reader, @A123
It is vastly longer and more complex. A NATO accession plan (a.k.a. Membership Action Plan [MAP] is a one off negotiation for each potential member. One of the reason for the NATO Partnership for peace [PfP] was to bring the MAP time down to a few years rather than a decade or more.
Even if a member state does not want to veto, there are all sorts of options to drag out the process.
Especially since they went off script and bought into Russia’s S-400 system. While they buy NATO gear they are also locked into buying Russian equipment. To keep that supply line open, they will continue to support Russian gas exports via TurkStream.
Turkey has been trying to join the EU for many years and has been stiffed. That alone is reason enough to treat Sweden and Finland the way the EU treated Turkey.
The fact that Turkey has an effective veto over NATO membership is actually helpful at this point. How is signing up to defend Finland in Turkey’s interest? Even if they do not veto such a move they can keep it tied up in committee more or less indefinitely.
PEACE 😇
IMO, NATO is obsolete for the most part because it does not protect against the modern modus of invasion, which is migration.
Speaking of which, a few days back, I heard that a total of 17,000 Ukrainians had entered the US through the Mexican border. Supposedly, because they can obtain travel visas easily, but who advised them on the pathway? And what strange plans did they have, to advise people to go to Tijuana? Last year, Tijuana was rated the murder capital of the world (with the caveat that Africa may not have reliable stats).
There’s been many news stories comparing them to the Central Americans who are crowding into the same areas and hinting at the racism of not letting them through.
Hopefully, some of the more oblique, funny accounts of racist twitter will make a return.
I always thought one or two of the characters would make a good sitcom.
Like - you don't care about ultimate truths, but are you reproducing the implicit metaphysics of modernity? So implicit that you don't see them?
Does all behavior and life imply a metaphysics?
And - things that contradict reason are rational if they nevertheless seem to work. Yes! And this is one way out of the trap of modernity - reason itself tells you it's rational to contradict it.
But I am right now embarking on a "mental fast" so to speak, where I am for a while avoiding all discursive analytical thought and philosophy and argument, and focusing only on experience - poetry, art, novels, and Nature excursions.
So I shall have to return to this important and interesting conversation later.
I don't know how long I'm taking a break from discursive thought and logic and analysis etc - I'm playing it by ear. And I might post a bit about my experience of the novel I'm reading.
The Taoists had this concept of the mental fast, and so did the mystics - it is surely correct and true. I'm gonna post more about that later too.
Barbarossa - also in response to your post - I agree largely with what you said, and would like to expand, but for the moment I'm in time out.
For the time being all you charterers on this site continue to chatter the Great Chatter :)Replies: @A123, @Seraphim, @silviosilver
The ascetics were sustaining their ‘mental fast’ with physical fast. With ‘fast and prayer’ actually. The mind becomes still like a still water surface, like a mirror which reflects the precise contours of the sun (as a symbol of the ‘ultimate reality’). Poetry, reading novels, wandering is a formula for mental dissipation. A sea still agitated by waves which distort the perceptions and stir emotions.
You’re right, it’s not quite a mental fast even in the Taoist sense.
It’s simply a break from discursive thinking, logical analysis, conceptual thinking, abstract thinking, philosophizing – basically the kind of thinking the modern world does most.
One does not actually have to always try and figure things out. One’s main mental activity in life actually doesn’t have to be to solve problems. And one does does not have to constantly be forming concepts 🙂
The ancient writers say ceasing constant thought creates physical, mental, and spiritual health.
A different matter is when you have some kind of support group, like Mormons. Mormons' weird beliefs are a very small part of their everyday religiosity, a part that I think is de-emphasized these days. On the whole, they are ordinary Americans, susceptible even to the woke fashions. But if they are conversant with their religious doctrine (sometimes they're not) they should believe in Christ having visited the Americas or the existence of other planets inhabited by people like us. Anyone expressing these beliefs out of the blue would risk being considered insane but if you are an observant Mormon, you can believe them while being pretty much indistinguishable from any other American.
Likewise, my mother used to tell me that during Easter week when she was a child adults would reprimand children that were caught smiling. This was a time to feel sad that Christ had died. Nowadays, someone refusing to smile during Easter week would probably be shunned and face social alienation but when the whole village is behaving like that you run no risk of losing your balance.
It is likely that there are groups of Yoga practitioners, Buddhists, etc that carry out these kinds of mental exercises in a structured manner, even more so in NYC. I tried Yoga myself a long time ago and my teachers put me on some meditation exercises where I was supposed to experience out-of-the-body phenomena but unfortunately I wasn't able to feel anything like that.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CK%5CR%5CKrasnodar.htm
The claim is pretty clear here. Krasnodar, important part of Ukrainian Life…
Kuban Krai almost federated with Ukraine in 1919-20.
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CK%5CU%5CKubanPeoplesRepublic.htm
The ambition is still there among the more ambitious Ukies.
I don't always agree with him, but even when I disagree he forces me to think through my position thoroughly, and he's always engaging. His arguments on education changed my views quite a bit. I am much less fussed with credentialism than I used to be, and have even come to view it as actively harmful for society.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iklHm0o-iM
I also think his critique of the concept of collective guilt is incisive.
I don't really agree with him on open borders; I do think there should be strict controls, but I disagree with rightoids that nationality/race is the primary prism through which we should judge people. I've had a long discussion/debate with songbird about this in the past so I won't retread old grounds.Replies: @Ron Unz
Well, I suppose you could say that, but he’s also a total lunatic. I was up against him in a big televised NYC debate almost a decade ago, and his positions were so utterly ridiculous that his own debate-partner turned against him, while the audience showed the largest swing against his side in the long history of the debate series. Here’s my article from the time telling the story:
https://www.unz.com/runz/open-borders-american-elites-and-the-minimum-wage/
And here are some selected clips from the debate, with the entire debate available at the article-link:
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CK%5CU%5CKubanPeoplesRepublic.htm
The ambition is still there among the more ambitious Ukies.Replies: @AP
Correct, at one time it was about 50% populated by Ukrainians. But it was not part of the Ukrainian People’s Republic.
The claim is pretty clear here. Krasnodar, important part of Ukrainian Life…Replies: @AP
You made a ridiculous comment that the Ukrainian People’s Republic included those territories according to Brest-Litovsk, and are now speaking of some claims unrelated to that.
http://www.conflicts.rem33.com/images/Ukraine/UKR%201918.JPG
This circulated in 1919Replies: @AP
Taking the entire situation of 1919 into account I’m demonstrating that Kuban Krai very nearly joined up with Ukraine formally. It’s obvious that such a political unification is plausible given that the Kuban Rada was seeking such a Union and that the Ukrainians in Kiev were keen to make it happen.
If I attributed this to the treaty of Brest Litovsk, my apologies for compressing simultaneous political plans and realities and events into a single point. It’s pretty fucking obvious that the region of Rostov and Azov in Kuban are territories a Greater Ukraine might annex given the right chance. Knowledge of this period is hardly grounds for you to call me ignorant. I invite people to have a read.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_People’s_Republic
Here’s another map showing the borders according to Brest-Litovsk:
This circulated in 1919
Here is Kuban:
http://www.dcstamps.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/RUS-Kuban-Cossacks-Map.png
https://i.redd.it/fp5ll29dkaj71.png
People there in Poland realize that the stakes are very high. This is not a war for an irrelevant piece of Ukraine's territory. This war is about the future of NATO and EU and Europe in general and Poland in particular. Probably Poles are aware of it more than most. They see that there is a strong chance for Russia to be reduced to the third rate power and they won't hide this unlike our media who do not want to reveal true objectives of the West that Russia delenda est.
And where did the fantasy of yours come from that you thought you did like Poland since 2015 or so? Because they did not get 2015 refugees or that they are somewhat more traditional by going to church on Sundays? Poland has not deceived you. It is you who have fooled yourself because you are ignorant and have no common sense. No different than with Russian and Putin fanboys you can encounter here at UR who know nothing about real Russia but who fantasize that an enemy of their enemy is their friend. Putin is not their friend though they made themselves to be Putin's bitches.Replies: @German_reader, @Wielgus
Ivan The Terrible Part 2. Reassured by Kurbsky, a Russian defector, the Polish court at about 2:20 assume the Muscovite barbarians are finished,
Both sides in an operational pause of sorts. It sounds like weather is going to make it hard for Russia to achieve a breakthrough, but Ukraine’s already precarious logistics could suffer as well.
Thulean fag – in an earlier guise, also known as PajeetPerspective – has been conflating reality with the online ‘reverse’ minstrel show he calls his life for so long now, he’s not only susceptible to masquerading his self-interest as principle – something we all do to some extent – but he probably genuinely can’t tell the difference. Little surprise he’d regard infinity immigration as morally desirable and intellectually rigorous.
Like - you don't care about ultimate truths, but are you reproducing the implicit metaphysics of modernity? So implicit that you don't see them?
Does all behavior and life imply a metaphysics?
And - things that contradict reason are rational if they nevertheless seem to work. Yes! And this is one way out of the trap of modernity - reason itself tells you it's rational to contradict it.
But I am right now embarking on a "mental fast" so to speak, where I am for a while avoiding all discursive analytical thought and philosophy and argument, and focusing only on experience - poetry, art, novels, and Nature excursions.
So I shall have to return to this important and interesting conversation later.
I don't know how long I'm taking a break from discursive thought and logic and analysis etc - I'm playing it by ear. And I might post a bit about my experience of the novel I'm reading.
The Taoists had this concept of the mental fast, and so did the mystics - it is surely correct and true. I'm gonna post more about that later too.
Barbarossa - also in response to your post - I agree largely with what you said, and would like to expand, but for the moment I'm in time out.
For the time being all you charterers on this site continue to chatter the Great Chatter :)Replies: @A123, @Seraphim, @silviosilver
All I meant is that while I am in general agreement with them – barring the odd revision here and there – and am willing to lead my life as though they are definitely ‘true,’ as long as they keep working in the same reliable way they have been, I don’t care if they’re ‘ultimately’ true or not.
It’s like believing in a God or an afterlife or a soul; they’re just ways to get through life more rewardingly. The truer we can make them seem, the more rewarding they are. But if it turns out that none of them are actually true, well, that is not an anxiety that can plague the dead – only the living.
Whatever seems to work.
But modern science is a radical ideology - a fanaticism - that actively suppresses so much that "seems to work", like spirituality, religion, poetry, love, art, Nature, spontaneity, natural and organic patterns.
The "truer" we can can make them - in my opinion, better to accept that ultimately reality is ungraspeable and all our concepts just pointers and can never be made too true. Mystery is healing.
And sometimes, the best thing to do is fast from concepts and "truths" altogether :)
As I am now - trying lol - to do!
We shall see how that goes.
This weekend I am going upstate New York to stay at a friend's house, which used to be an old farm. I will mostly be walking in nature and reading poetry and novels, and talking with friends non-intellectually.
PajeetPerspective… I like it! More than actually being Indian, what gets me is not being transparent about it.. I can at least respect Sher Singh for openly parading his ethnic grifting .
That's lit all I say or do,
Fkn retard Armenoid.
You're semitic now kicked out of IE.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
China doesn’t “escalate to deescalate” like some strategic planning dimwit in Russia. More likely they sit back and manage things like numbers.
There are NGOs that are still operating in the occupied territories despite the terror that’s taking place there, they still bring food to the soldiers (often it’s their female relatives). They create camouflage nets for them. They’ve been doing this for years.
To counter Trumpist claims for COVID reparations on China (something Brandon could take up once they need to dial up pressure on China), China should threaten to nationalize all American businesses in China as damage for US setting up biolabs on Chinese soil and releasing COVID from the one at Wuhan. There’s the Russian precedent. (Shanghai’s lockdown could be a stealthy step to this end!)
Speaking of which, a few days back, I heard that a total of 17,000 Ukrainians had entered the US through the Mexican border. Supposedly, because they can obtain travel visas easily, but who advised them on the pathway? And what strange plans did they have, to advise people to go to Tijuana? Last year, Tijuana was rated the murder capital of the world (with the caveat that Africa may not have reliable stats).
There's been many news stories comparing them to the Central Americans who are crowding into the same areas and hinting at the racism of not letting them through.Replies: @Coconuts
Important to remember, when it involves the large scale movement of non-white people into white majority countries it is called decolonisation, which means the liberation of these countries from the scourge of whiteness.
Decolonization used to literally mean colonial powers letting the colonies go and the new states’ (often disastrous) indigenization campaigns. And then 3rd world wokes come to see things in a more based way than Western wokes – they understand the supremacy of ethno-cultural consciousness in politics (which drives their calls to dismantle European cultural hegemony), and wraps it in Marxist rhetoric. This is why the Nouvelle Droit calls pro-immigration ethnomasochism.
Russia will attack NATO, sooner or later.
Blinken and Lloyd returned form Kiev yesterday and today there is a meeting at Rammstein Air Base of all weapon donors for Ukraine.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Torpedoed_USS_Kearny_%28DD-432%29_alongside_USS_Monssen_%28DD-436%29_at_Iceland%2C_19_October_1941_%2880-G-28788%29.jpg/220px-Torpedoed_USS_Kearny_%28DD-432%29_alongside_USS_Monssen_%28DD-436%29_at_Iceland%2C_19_October_1941_%2880-G-28788%29.jpg
The Torpedoed USS Kearny alongside Monssen in Reykjavik, Iceland (Oct, 1941).In a September [1941] memo to the president, [US Admiral] King wrote, “Whatever we do I am anxious that our first real shooting contact with the enemy be successful. Particularly would I like to get Tirpitz if the opportunity comes our way. Early victory would breed confidence and be a wonderful stimulant
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/lend-lease-for-ukraine-us-revives-wwii-anti-hitler-policy-to-defeat-putin/https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/Replies: @S
https://www.unz.com/runz/open-borders-american-elites-and-the-minimum-wage/
And here are some selected clips from the debate, with the entire debate available at the article-link:
https://youtu.be/vbI9Rl2tX88Replies: @Thulean Friend
I don’t really see the relevance of your comment given what I had written.
I see a conflict between these two statements:
I don’t think knowledge of Jewish ancestry will change people’s opinions of the Israeli-Palestine conflict.
have a right to the land by virtue of blood and soil (viz. ancestry),
I agree, and I give quite a bit of deference to the rights derived from blood and soil. That said, I don’t believe it gives one group exclusive “rights” to govern. That authority must derive from some other source. As I have stated before, my complaint about Israel is the way that they are treating the people on the West Bank. I think that they should be required to declare all of them citizens or withdraw completely from the conquered lands. I don’t know what the population numbers are, but since the Palestinians agreed to enter the current parliamentary governing coalition, I don’t see why the Israelis can’t just go ahead and end the apartheid and become a “real” democracy.
I think this is clearly visible in the decolonisation movement within European countries, as ending European cultural hegemony within them is closely linked to curtailing the cultural, political, economic etc. power of white Europeans and moving it to other groups. Then there is the correlation between decolonisation and the shrinking size of the original European populations, which at some point may become a relationship of causation. (This is interesting in respect of Germany; to what extent is the low birth rate attributable to a kind of cultural demoralisation and loss of a sense of legitimacy in the continued existence of the people?)
Could also be looked at from a Carl Schmitt perspective, where decolonisation involves transfer of political sovereignty and authority to certain ethnic groups under the mask of neo-Marxism.
https://www.bib.bund.de/DE/Fakten/Fakt/F09-Zusammengefasste-Geburtenziffer-West-Ost-ab-1945.html
Back then the state of Germany today (with ethnic Germans well on their way to becoming minorities in most urban centres in West Germany, and in a few decades in all western Länder) would probably have been pretty much unthinkable to most people. Sure, there was already a large number of Turks, but non-European mass immigration through the asylum system wasn't a real problem yet (that only started in the 1980s, before then it was mostly political refugees from the Eastern bloc), and naturalization laws were comparatively restrictive. There were early stirrings of multiculturalism on the left, but it wasn't yet government policy.
So I think the low birthrate came first, because of the reasons common to all Western countries (women entering the workforce in ever larger numbers, the pill, consumerism etc.), which then made it much harder to resist the de-nationalization programme when it gathered force in the 1990s and early 2000s.Replies: @German_reader
This circulated in 1919Replies: @AP
sigh) Rostov is not part of Kuban. It belonged to the Don Cossacks who were entirely different and ethnic Russians. You are arguing that Toronto is part of the USA because you saw on the map that it’s very close to the American border.
Here is Kuban:
Musk is a Libertarian (not a MAGA Populist): (1)
There is no indication that there will be sanctions against SJW Globalist misinformation.
The most that can be hoped for is that accurate information will not be arbitrarily censored (e.g. Ivermectin is effective give against WUHAN-19).
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/25/tucker-carlson-gives-his-perspective-on-musk-successfully-purchasing-twitter-platform/
___________
There may be some decent humor frm all of this though.
😀 Free Speech Now Has a Heavy Musk Scent. 😁
Is this a Disney movie?
He seems more pessimistic about the Ukrainians’ ability to withstand the coming offensive. On the plus side, Russian manpower, especially infantry, is not ideal despite local advantages and replenishing their munitions will be difficult. Ukrainian morale is also much better. Glory to Ukraine! https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61217528
The idea that Thulean_Friend is actually Indian is just silly imo (unless you’re just joking). I don’t know why he did what he did with his earlier commenter identity (and I don’t want to know, imo one should just drop the subject), but he comes across as quite quintessentially Swedish, for good and bad, to me.
Given his comments I don't see it matters. As I recall A. Karlin was the first person here to slam the fellow on this basis and it is now closer to old and tired, not wired. He had access to unz.com tool for smelling sock puppets which he might maybe have needed.
But if somebody wants to make a funny joke about Indians have at it.
https://www.indiewire.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Apu-in-The-Simpsons.jpg
The birth rate in West Germany had already sunk to pretty much its current low level by the mid-/late 1970s:
https://www.bib.bund.de/DE/Fakten/Fakt/F09-Zusammengefasste-Geburtenziffer-West-Ost-ab-1945.html
Back then the state of Germany today (with ethnic Germans well on their way to becoming minorities in most urban centres in West Germany, and in a few decades in all western Länder) would probably have been pretty much unthinkable to most people. Sure, there was already a large number of Turks, but non-European mass immigration through the asylum system wasn’t a real problem yet (that only started in the 1980s, before then it was mostly political refugees from the Eastern bloc), and naturalization laws were comparatively restrictive. There were early stirrings of multiculturalism on the left, but it wasn’t yet government policy.
So I think the low birthrate came first, because of the reasons common to all Western countries (women entering the workforce in ever larger numbers, the pill, consumerism etc.), which then made it much harder to resist the de-nationalization programme when it gathered force in the 1990s and early 2000s.
https://www.bib.bund.de/DE/Fakten/Fakt/F09-Zusammengefasste-Geburtenziffer-West-Ost-ab-1945.html
Back then the state of Germany today (with ethnic Germans well on their way to becoming minorities in most urban centres in West Germany, and in a few decades in all western Länder) would probably have been pretty much unthinkable to most people. Sure, there was already a large number of Turks, but non-European mass immigration through the asylum system wasn't a real problem yet (that only started in the 1980s, before then it was mostly political refugees from the Eastern bloc), and naturalization laws were comparatively restrictive. There were early stirrings of multiculturalism on the left, but it wasn't yet government policy.
So I think the low birthrate came first, because of the reasons common to all Western countries (women entering the workforce in ever larger numbers, the pill, consumerism etc.), which then made it much harder to resist the de-nationalization programme when it gathered force in the 1990s and early 2000s.Replies: @German_reader
What might be specifically German is that the Nazi past made any serious discussion about natalist policies pretty much taboo compared to a country like France…the issue would just be dismissed with reference to the Mutterkreuz handed out by the Nazis to women with many children (“Do you want something like that again?”). But on the other hand, southern Europe has quite appallingly low birth rates among its native population too, so I’m not sure if this was really that decisive.
Frauleins have it great now: pointless office jobs, cafes and idle talk, full protection by state, inane culture that celebrates them, what's not to like? Until they get older and have to start drinking or welcoming refugees to make it through the day.
In Prague yesterday refugee Ukies blocked a few streets, maybe they were bored. They were attacked by furious locals, it showed that there is a lot of tension under the surface. Then some nice plumpy middle-aged Ukie women went on TV to complain that they need "office jobs in Prague based on their qualifications". Their qualifications: women who had previous office jobs in Ukraine.
This is going to be fun, they don't seem to aspire to pick potatoes. The Ukie feminist entitlement meets reality, what now?Replies: @Wielgus, @Emil Nikola Richard
If his schtick was promoting diversity at google and facebook it would definitely be relevant.
Given his comments I don’t see it matters. As I recall A. Karlin was the first person here to slam the fellow on this basis and it is now closer to old and tired, not wired. He had access to unz.com tool for smelling sock puppets which he might maybe have needed.
But if somebody wants to make a funny joke about Indians have at it.
Russia will attack NATO, sooner or later.Replies: @utu, @S
“Germany will authorise the delivery of tanks to Ukraine” – Maybe and hopefully this is true but so far all possible excuses that they were able to come up with in Germany were used to not supply Ukraine with heavy weapons. Scholz comes across as very dodgy. However the pressure on Germany keeps increasing.
Blinken and Lloyd returned form Kiev yesterday and today there is a meeting at Rammstein Air Base of all weapon donors for Ukraine.
Post-soviet local touristic sightings be like sprinkled with bits of hardware:
The decisive factor is the increased laziness among women – ladies are my favorite species so I don’t mean it in a bad way. It is hard work to have children, and Mutterkreuz can be a heavy burden with few benefits. The original cause is the well-meaning attempt at state protection for the elderly and unmarried – it turned biology upside down and it was only a question of time before people stopped needing their own children.
Frauleins have it great now: pointless office jobs, cafes and idle talk, full protection by state, inane culture that celebrates them, what’s not to like? Until they get older and have to start drinking or welcoming refugees to make it through the day.
In Prague yesterday refugee Ukies blocked a few streets, maybe they were bored. They were attacked by furious locals, it showed that there is a lot of tension under the surface. Then some nice plumpy middle-aged Ukie women went on TV to complain that they need “office jobs in Prague based on their qualifications“. Their qualifications: women who had previous office jobs in Ukraine.
This is going to be fun, they don’t seem to aspire to pick potatoes. The Ukie feminist entitlement meets reality, what now?
At a tangent, but Franz Kafka was one of the few survivors in his Prague insurance office when the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed in 1918 and Czechoslovakia became independent. The office language changed from German to Czech. Kafka spoke Czech but did not write it well and got the Czech Gentile husband of one of his sisters to correct his rough drafts of reports before he filed them. Not too long after his tuberculosis worsened and he had to quit working.Replies: @Beckow
I know a lawyer from Nicaragua who immigrated to the United States and his job was hotel bellhop.
Frauleins have it great now: pointless office jobs, cafes and idle talk, full protection by state, inane culture that celebrates them, what's not to like? Until they get older and have to start drinking or welcoming refugees to make it through the day.
In Prague yesterday refugee Ukies blocked a few streets, maybe they were bored. They were attacked by furious locals, it showed that there is a lot of tension under the surface. Then some nice plumpy middle-aged Ukie women went on TV to complain that they need "office jobs in Prague based on their qualifications". Their qualifications: women who had previous office jobs in Ukraine.
This is going to be fun, they don't seem to aspire to pick potatoes. The Ukie feminist entitlement meets reality, what now?Replies: @Wielgus, @Emil Nikola Richard
To hold down an office job in Czechia it would be necessary to understand and write Czech and I doubt whether they can. Ironically they might be better placed working in Russia as it is likely their Russian is quite functional.
At a tangent, but Franz Kafka was one of the few survivors in his Prague insurance office when the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed in 1918 and Czechoslovakia became independent. The office language changed from German to Czech. Kafka spoke Czech but did not write it well and got the Czech Gentile husband of one of his sisters to correct his rough drafts of reports before he filed them. Not too long after his tuberculosis worsened and he had to quit working.
You are quite brave to try those experiments on your own. I think I would fear losing my mental balance.
A different matter is when you have some kind of support group, like Mormons. Mormons’ weird beliefs are a very small part of their everyday religiosity, a part that I think is de-emphasized these days. On the whole, they are ordinary Americans, susceptible even to the woke fashions. But if they are conversant with their religious doctrine (sometimes they’re not) they should believe in Christ having visited the Americas or the existence of other planets inhabited by people like us. Anyone expressing these beliefs out of the blue would risk being considered insane but if you are an observant Mormon, you can believe them while being pretty much indistinguishable from any other American.
Likewise, my mother used to tell me that during Easter week when she was a child adults would reprimand children that were caught smiling. This was a time to feel sad that Christ had died. Nowadays, someone refusing to smile during Easter week would probably be shunned and face social alienation but when the whole village is behaving like that you run no risk of losing your balance.
It is likely that there are groups of Yoga practitioners, Buddhists, etc that carry out these kinds of mental exercises in a structured manner, even more so in NYC. I tried Yoga myself a long time ago and my teachers put me on some meditation exercises where I was supposed to experience out-of-the-body phenomena but unfortunately I wasn’t able to feel anything like that.
That being said, your comment highlights an important point - to overcome modernity we will have to learn to be "wild" again, take risks, perform experiments, and leave the "safety" of the known and familiar and return to radical empiricism.
So what is the difference between polyphonic and monophonic music, if you don’t mind taking me out of my ignorance?
https://youtu.be/zVa_rjMBHhk?t=441
There is a "circus acrobat" example to show flipping different melodies to each hand.
Of course I’m kidding (well, mostly). It adds a little color to the seriousness of the thread. Such humor may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but you wouldn’t seriously object to keeping it as a running joke, would you?
Beyond that, whether he’s Indian or not, he clearly has identity issues. The evidence that Dmitry presented a few years ago was not conclusive but it was sufficient to convince me, on the balance of probabilities, that he is the same poster as “PolishPerspective.” Not exactly normal behavior to attempt to pass yourself off as Polish and then switch to Swedish, is it.
Lastly, I’m not sure what stake you have in his reputation that you seem so keen to defend him. He never misses an opportunity to gloat over the drubbing that the (“far”) right is taking. Would he do the same for you or would he jump at the chance to doxx and ban your ass if your identity were ever compromised? I know which way I’m betting.
And while I disagree with most of his opinions (and think some of his past comments like "Let's cull 80% of manoids" were outright trolling), they don't seem that bad anymore compared to utu's aggressively stupid bs about NFZs, "Russian assets" etc. (probably a far better candidate for doxxing other users, in defense of Western democracy or whatever).EDIT: And yes, I do object to "TF is Indian" as a running joke, it got stale long ago. And some commenters seem to seriously believe it, which is just bizarre imo.
True enough, but I’ve seen nothing to indicate he’d favour doxxing other commenters, so I don’t see the point of such accusations.
And while I disagree with most of his opinions (and think some of his past comments like “Let’s cull 80% of manoids” were outright trolling), they don’t seem that bad anymore compared to utu’s aggressively stupid bs about NFZs, “Russian assets” etc. (probably a far better candidate for doxxing other users, in defense of Western democracy or whatever).
EDIT: And yes, I do object to “TF is Indian” as a running joke, it got stale long ago. And some commenters seem to seriously believe it, which is just bizarre imo.
At a tangent, but Franz Kafka was one of the few survivors in his Prague insurance office when the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed in 1918 and Czechoslovakia became independent. The office language changed from German to Czech. Kafka spoke Czech but did not write it well and got the Czech Gentile husband of one of his sisters to correct his rough drafts of reports before he filed them. Not too long after his tuberculosis worsened and he had to quit working.Replies: @Beckow
How do you explain to an office worker from Sumy that work in Czech in a Habsburg-derived administration is a bridge too far? Don’t get me started on the admin rules, read Kafka. (He got tb because the pre-commie housing in Prague was quite unhealthy…and to think what Kafka could had done with commie bureaucracy.)
There are around half million of them and still not a single one willing to pick potatoes. We have a problem. Onwards to Germany or Canada?
Some assessments of Kafka's German claim that it was influenced by a type of Prague German of the time that some consider overly stilted and bureaucratic, although this is not a universally held opinion among experts. Kafka's father emigrated to Prague from the countryside and was a Czech speaker, switching to German because it had more prestige.
I think these Ukrainian refugees are going to become increasingly unwelcome, perhaps more unwelcome the more official solicitude is shown towards them.Replies: @German_reader, @S, @Beckow
“Lastly, I’m not sure what stake you have in his reputation that you seem so keen to defend him. “ – Poor GR is utu crazy. Mere presence of utu in the vicinity makes him spout nonsense. GR is turning Panglossian because of utu: the whole world with its TF and its Putin and its Stalin and its Islamists would be the best of all possible worlds if it wasn’t for utu.
The power utu has is mind blowing. Utu uses this power wisely on GR. It is a therapy to regrow his balls. And his recent feistiness, a sort of transference suggests that the therapy is working. The more he hates his therapist bigger his balls get. In teh end it will gratitude and eternal love for utu.
The real problem is that there are plenty of people in the media and in politics who do have real power and who believe similarly crazy things as you do. But we'll see how this will all turn out.
Frauleins have it great now: pointless office jobs, cafes and idle talk, full protection by state, inane culture that celebrates them, what's not to like? Until they get older and have to start drinking or welcoming refugees to make it through the day.
In Prague yesterday refugee Ukies blocked a few streets, maybe they were bored. They were attacked by furious locals, it showed that there is a lot of tension under the surface. Then some nice plumpy middle-aged Ukie women went on TV to complain that they need "office jobs in Prague based on their qualifications". Their qualifications: women who had previous office jobs in Ukraine.
This is going to be fun, they don't seem to aspire to pick potatoes. The Ukie feminist entitlement meets reality, what now?Replies: @Wielgus, @Emil Nikola Richard
Ha ha.
I know a lawyer from Nicaragua who immigrated to the United States and his job was hotel bellhop.
Try “Mandry” (the Wanderers) on for size. Traditional Ukrainian music done in an upbeat modern sort of way. The accompanying accordion sounds are always top notch. Good toe tapping music! Not your average schlocky “estrada” style of music, but more of a true folk rock style.
I am concerned though, very traumatised about the Golodomor that is happening in the "Ukraine" right now- the tragic Golodomor of blue duct tape.
So much new blue duct tape is being used as the ukronazi bodies are piling up in very, very high amounts, forcing even more blue duct tape for ukronazi soldiers
This Golodomor of the tape is so bad that young ukronazi plankton from the west of the fake state are having to wrap green duct tape around their arms now.
Mr Hack, I am asking you to lobby the US government to send a huge cargo of blue duct tape to 404 and stop this GolodomorReplies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
You’re not that important. You just write absurdly stupid comments on a totally marginal website. Nothing I’ve seen indicates that you have any more real power than the rest of us commenters here.
The real problem is that there are plenty of people in the media and in politics who do have real power and who believe similarly crazy things as you do. But we’ll see how this will all turn out.
A different matter is when you have some kind of support group, like Mormons. Mormons' weird beliefs are a very small part of their everyday religiosity, a part that I think is de-emphasized these days. On the whole, they are ordinary Americans, susceptible even to the woke fashions. But if they are conversant with their religious doctrine (sometimes they're not) they should believe in Christ having visited the Americas or the existence of other planets inhabited by people like us. Anyone expressing these beliefs out of the blue would risk being considered insane but if you are an observant Mormon, you can believe them while being pretty much indistinguishable from any other American.
Likewise, my mother used to tell me that during Easter week when she was a child adults would reprimand children that were caught smiling. This was a time to feel sad that Christ had died. Nowadays, someone refusing to smile during Easter week would probably be shunned and face social alienation but when the whole village is behaving like that you run no risk of losing your balance.
It is likely that there are groups of Yoga practitioners, Buddhists, etc that carry out these kinds of mental exercises in a structured manner, even more so in NYC. I tried Yoga myself a long time ago and my teachers put me on some meditation exercises where I was supposed to experience out-of-the-body phenomena but unfortunately I wasn't able to feel anything like that.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
This is like 50/50 shot after 10000 hours quality practice. Any teacher advertising otherwise is a fool or deliberately scamming.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/ball-testicle-tanning-far-right-tucker-carlson-1339809/
A different matter is when you have some kind of support group, like Mormons. Mormons' weird beliefs are a very small part of their everyday religiosity, a part that I think is de-emphasized these days. On the whole, they are ordinary Americans, susceptible even to the woke fashions. But if they are conversant with their religious doctrine (sometimes they're not) they should believe in Christ having visited the Americas or the existence of other planets inhabited by people like us. Anyone expressing these beliefs out of the blue would risk being considered insane but if you are an observant Mormon, you can believe them while being pretty much indistinguishable from any other American.
Likewise, my mother used to tell me that during Easter week when she was a child adults would reprimand children that were caught smiling. This was a time to feel sad that Christ had died. Nowadays, someone refusing to smile during Easter week would probably be shunned and face social alienation but when the whole village is behaving like that you run no risk of losing your balance.
It is likely that there are groups of Yoga practitioners, Buddhists, etc that carry out these kinds of mental exercises in a structured manner, even more so in NYC. I tried Yoga myself a long time ago and my teachers put me on some meditation exercises where I was supposed to experience out-of-the-body phenomena but unfortunately I wasn't able to feel anything like that.Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @AaronB
As much as I’d love to see myself as doing something especially courageous, unfortunately I don’t think I am doing anything particularly risky 🙂
That being said, your comment highlights an important point – to overcome modernity we will have to learn to be “wild” again, take risks, perform experiments, and leave the “safety” of the known and familiar and return to radical empiricism.
The over reaction from Authoritarian Liberals is quite impressive: (1)
Who knows how much craziness Musk has prevented by securing site services. Smart move on his part.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/twitter-goes-internal-lockdown-prevent-woke-employees-taking-revenge-elon-musk-takeover
"I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right."
:::::::::::::::::
I just spent 11 days in Poland, helping family memories who have recently settled there from Ukraine due to the war and making a vacation out of it by enjoying a resort and thermal baths in the Tatras (wish the weather was better lol) and exploring a large urban city where I lived with Polish cousins (one of my grandparent's siblings, married to a Pole, chose to stay in Poland after World War II while the rest of them moved to Germany and then USA and Canada).
I was struck by how kind and nice the Polish people were, almost everywhere. A local Polish guy I didn't know at a tourist site bought me a souvenir book without asking after he overheard a conversation in which I was told they didn't take dollars or credit cards; villagers guided me in their car as I followed in mine to places of family importance in that village in Lemko country in SE Poland (they had remembered that my family had once owned the village and told me some positive anecdotes about a locally famous relative - he was a Greek Catholic Ruthenian, these villagers were ethnic Poles, but they were great to us). While I have experienced kindness in various places I have visited (people are generally good), it seemed to be more concentrated in Poland.
Speaking of villages, rural Poland appears to be very prosperous, indeed much more prosperous than the rural USA by appearance. This is true of SE Poland, which is traditionally the poorest part of the country. Roads are great (thanks to EU funding) but the houses are also very new/modernized, and very neat. Nothing like the shacks and rundown trailer parks that are common in rural places in the USA such as West Virginia or even rural Maine. And I was taking a lot of backroads to get to old family villages. The explanation is that these villagers would go to Germany or England or France and work for a few years, pouring all of their money back to Poland. With this money they were able to build houses in their villages (where money goes further) that were equal to middle class housing in Germany. Some Poles have a love of Italy and occasionally one sees what appears to be a prosperous Italian house that is nicer and larger than many homes I saw when I visited Italy itself. I have seen similar thing happening in rural Western Ukraine but whereas in western Ukraine perhaps 1 in 10 houses have been redone to a prosperous Western standard (the contrast is jarring) and the roads are awful, in rural Poland it is about 95% and it's like driving around central Germany except one is in the middle of nowhere. It really highlights how Ukraine has missed out by not going for the EU right away. The cost of being burdened with Donbas as part of Ukraine at independence.
Ukrainian flags everywhere in Poland. Numerous people have taken Ukrainians into rental flats if they own them, and many even into their own homes. My cousin's Roman Catholic church is renovating some buildings that will be used as apartments for Ukrainian refugees. There are no Ukrainians there (my cousin is only 1/4 Ukrainian, no one lese there is even that), these are Poles helping Ukrainians. We saw a lot of Ukrainian refugees there, speaking both Ukrainian and Russian. They get free food from places set up in train stations and central squares. People from Ukraine not only get free train tickets but also free museum tickets, we saw many of them admiring Polish culture and art in for example the Czartoryski museum in Krakow and in a palace we toured in southeastern Poland.
Refugees are everywhere, they speak both Ukrainian and Russian. They are overwhelmingly women and children and from all social backgrounds; I saw quite a few ladies in new-looking Range Rovers with Ukrainian plates but also people who looked very poor.
Much fewer bicycles in Poland than in Western Europe or than in parts of the USA. However they have extensive bike lanes throughout rural areas, probably as make-work construction projects with EU funding so if one wanted to bike around the infrastructure is there. Trains are fine.
Poland still seems religious. I saw lots of young people at church. My niece (university undergraduate) found her boyfriend at some Catholic youth camp. My older high school age nephew spoke the Gospels at Mass. They attend Mass weekly. These are very attractive, athletic and popular kids from an educated and wealthy family; among Americans one sees this level of religiosity rarely and mostly in rural areas or among sects.
Spent a few days at a hotel in SE Poland where our waitress at the hotel restaurant had served American officials such as Blinken (it was the nicest place in town, apparently). Had drinks at the hotel bar until 2 AM with a diverse mix of contractors, aid organization people, and arms dealers (one guy claimed to be Europe's largest arms dealer and after I google stalked him I saw that he was merely exaggerating), heard some interesting things from them about the war and Zelensky's administration (which I won't share in writing) after they've had 10 or more drinks.
A few photos (nothing touristy, google can be used for pictures of Poland's charming cities and mountains):
Sikh organization giving free food to Ukrainian refugees right at the border:
https://i.imgur.com/DFYFPHK.jpg
From other organizations, there are also free clothes, free crepes (from a French aid organization), etc. It smells delicious. An aid worker complained to me about what they call "shoppers" - local Poles (typically the town drunk or something) who come in from the nearby village to get free stuff. They are chased away once identified.
American Patriot missile system (I don't think it's classified because its by a public road outside major airport in SE Poland):
https://i.imgur.com/81u2nOb.jpg
Krakow train station; Ukrainians get free sim cards for their phones and other stuff:
https://i.imgur.com/brQZU7G.jpgReplies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend, @RSDB
Thanks (I think I have to post something to get the button).
And thanks also for quoting Chesterton which is always appreciated.
The refugee situation has some parallels with the attitude of Pakistanis towards Afghan refugees and with the attitude of south Indians to Sri Lankan refugees during the wars in those places. Both of those situations spelled trouble down the line but in the meantime Afghans and Ceylon Tamils owe a great debt of gratitude to Pakistanis and Indians respectively, as Ukrainians now do to Poles.
A lot of people got TB in those days, and Kafka was relatively upper-income. He survived a bout with the “Spanish Flu” in 1918 or 1919, although some biographers think it weakened him. However, he survived until 1924.
Some assessments of Kafka’s German claim that it was influenced by a type of Prague German of the time that some consider overly stilted and bureaucratic, although this is not a universally held opinion among experts. Kafka’s father emigrated to Prague from the countryside and was a Czech speaker, switching to German because it had more prestige.
I think these Ukrainian refugees are going to become increasingly unwelcome, perhaps more unwelcome the more official solicitude is shown towards them.
Then, like AIDS, it became 'treatable', though, even as relatively late as the 1966 British film Alfie (starring Michael Caine) a health check of Caine's character Alfie revealing 'tubercular shadows' on the lungs causes a shudder and a mandatory stay at a 'sanitarium'.
As an aside, seeing 1965 London in the film in bright living color, compared with what it is today, is sad.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfie_(1966_film)Replies: @utu
This kind of humble “common sense” approach sounds eminently reasonable to me.
Whatever seems to work.
But modern science is a radical ideology – a fanaticism – that actively suppresses so much that “seems to work”, like spirituality, religion, poetry, love, art, Nature, spontaneity, natural and organic patterns.
The “truer” we can can make them – in my opinion, better to accept that ultimately reality is ungraspeable and all our concepts just pointers and can never be made too true. Mystery is healing.
And sometimes, the best thing to do is fast from concepts and “truths” altogether 🙂
As I am now – trying lol – to do!
We shall see how that goes.
This weekend I am going upstate New York to stay at a friend’s house, which used to be an old farm. I will mostly be walking in nature and reading poetry and novels, and talking with friends non-intellectually.
Some assessments of Kafka's German claim that it was influenced by a type of Prague German of the time that some consider overly stilted and bureaucratic, although this is not a universally held opinion among experts. Kafka's father emigrated to Prague from the countryside and was a Czech speaker, switching to German because it had more prestige.
I think these Ukrainian refugees are going to become increasingly unwelcome, perhaps more unwelcome the more official solicitude is shown towards them.Replies: @German_reader, @S, @Beckow
I don’t know how it will be in the Visegrad countries, but I have difficulty imagining something of the sort in Germany or other “old” EU countries. Ukrainian women, children and old people are vastly more sympathetic (even I feel sorry for them) than creepy young African and Arab men, and despite lots of horrible incidents committed by the latter the fawning over them never really stopped. If the war continues for a long time and the economic burden is too much for the V4 I assume Ukrainians will just be relocated to western EU countries.
And apart from that, suddendeath is also wrong on the facts. Le Pen did significantly better than last time and unless polls before the election were wrong Macron was basically just saved by the huge cohort of boomers. Combined with ethnic voting (very strong Muslim support for Melenchon in the first round) this might indicate that French politics will become increasingly polarized and unstable over the next 2-3 decades. Nothing to indicate in any case that the election was determined by Ukraine/Russia.Replies: @songbird, @AP
Poles, Balts and any decent human being is right for mocking Western right wing “useful idiots” who cheerlead Putin as he sends Chechen and Syrian Muslims and Asian Buryats to murder and rape a population of conservative Christian Europeans, the largest killing of Europeans since the Second World War.
I’m not going to defend the “useful idiots” who don’t see that Russia’s war in Ukraine is rotten to the core or who reflexively deny Russian war crimes. But I’m not impressed by the morality of a lot of Poles and Balts either. Difficult for me not to get the impression that for many of them it’s just a blood feud where they can get their vengeance for what happened in the 1940s, without regard for the possible consequences of the course they’re demanding. I also stand by my other point: it’s bizarre when Eastern Europeans, many of whom are unreconstructed 19th-century style nationalists (sometimes worshipping outright mass murderers), celebrate Western politicians like Johnson, Trudeau or Macron who can’t abolish their own nations fast enough, and these contradictions will deservedly boomerang on Eastern Europeans at some point.
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
There have been some explosions in Transnistria.
Some are calling it “false flag.” Others an attempt by the Ukrainians to broaden the conflict and draw the West in.
The truth is always much more mundane than imagination, and hence more disappointing, so I understand people keep inventing new theories to add some spice to it, whether it’s Dmitry(Polish) or you(Indian). I’ve stated multiple times that I’m ethnically Swedish, which is why it is somewhat amusing to me that there’s so much controversy on this question.
It’s perfectly possible for someone to be both an Indophile and have a nuanced view of immigration without having some kind of hidden loyalties.
P.S. I quite like GR, and I think I’ve expressed my sympathies – and empathy – to him quite clearly in a previous OT. I don’t think you should worry that I would harm him given an opportunity. Your own chances are substantially bleaker, I’m afraid 😉
The American Ukrainians here, AP and Hack, are not really so different either. They just know to be more circumspect. Still, if you ask me, their interest in domestic politics is largely restricted to ensuring their ability to lead their Ukraine-first lifestyles unmolested. AP brushes off demographic concerns with “America was always multiracial” neocon boilerplate and Hack with cuckworthy 1960s sloganeering about “integration.” No real difference between them and your common garden zionist, really. (“Israel for the Jews, white countries for everybody.”)
I do find it irritating when people from almost mono-ethnic countries like Poland or Lithuania, who often seem very intent on keeping and cherishing their own national myths, mock Western right-wingers and get all enthusiastic about the support Western shitlibs like Germany's Greens are now offering to Ukraine (understandable that Ukrainians take the support they can get in their present situation...but it will come with strings attached). There's a real cultural disconnect here and as I wrote above, I think it will boomerang on those national-minded Eastern Europeans after the war (if it doesn't end in nuclear armaggedon, that is).Replies: @silviosilver
Thomas Sowell, who is black, is probably one of the greatest living Americans. Are you living in America? You are of Balkanoid descent, right? As such you shouldn’t be here based on your idea that the country is only for the original British Protestant settlers.Replies: @silviosilver, @A123
Strelkov’s latest assesment – if the current tempo of RF offensive advances in Donbass will remain the same and without any setbacks, the remaining territory of Donetsk oblast will be taken from UA military roughly after 5 months from now, i.e. until first coming autumn frosts.
(Obviously the last part is a sarcastic joke).
There is a serious problem with “useful idiots” on both sides.
Ukraine built their punishment dam, targeting Crimean civilians to deprive them of fresh water. Ukie ultra-nationalists actively embrace war crimes, such as these, committed by their government. Such viciousness and deranged hatred makes supporting the Ukrainian side effectively impossible.
Both parties have problems, but there is deeper and more pervasive malevolence from the Ukie side.
PEACE 😇
True to some extent, but I don’t really want to bash them. Mr. Hack is actually pretty consistent as far as I can tell (he genuinely seems to like living in multicultural Arizona or wherever he is, and in the past has indicated that Ukraine will open up to the world once the Russian threat is gone, so there’s no real hypocrisy in his views, and one should respect them even if one disagrees).
I do find it irritating when people from almost mono-ethnic countries like Poland or Lithuania, who often seem very intent on keeping and cherishing their own national myths, mock Western right-wingers and get all enthusiastic about the support Western shitlibs like Germany’s Greens are now offering to Ukraine (understandable that Ukrainians take the support they can get in their present situation…but it will come with strings attached). There’s a real cultural disconnect here and as I wrote above, I think it will boomerang on those national-minded Eastern Europeans after the war (if it doesn’t end in nuclear armaggedon, that is).
But even if he's sincere, I don't see why that gets him off the hook. Imagine he was your neighbor in Germany. Would you really say "Oh, you sincerely enjoy diversity? Well that makes it okay then. I guess I can't complain about you."
It seems “bizarre” to you, but unfortunately such is the geopolitical configuration right now and the Eastern Europeans are more negatively impacted by it. For them it’s an emergency, for you it’s still a situation that you can ponder. It is clear now that we’d be fucked without the US. I still believe it is the Ukrainian military & volunteers who saved us through their immense sacrifices, but without the Angl input it’d be very hard.
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground — I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their “moral superiority”. That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction – “Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone”. LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don’t.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say “No”. As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don’t need your advice on “multiculturalism”. The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than “the minority rights in the EE”, they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank… seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a “gentle invasion” & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry… only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still… this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn’t judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won’t criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.
If there is a real solution for Ukraine that entails real security guarantees from the West (after the fate is decided on the battle field), which I'm not sure are possible, but there is talk about this (from the British, not Germans). If this were to succeed, then it is only normal that Ukraine would be amicably inclined towards the West. This amicability will create a situation where Ukraine could make concessions to the West in the future (as you assume), however, most of the policies will be decided on the ground in Ukraine. I know the conspiracy theory folks here don't believe that, but that's how it works. Plus, we will have all the moral, spiritual, physical changes that will come from this war that will also affect society in ways we don't yet know of.Replies: @German_reader
I probably should be more understanding about Baltic security concerns (see below). But it seems to me there is to some extent an orchestrated anti-German campaign, to exert moral pressure on Germany for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (tons of people on the net going on how Germany is responsible for "genocide" in Ukraine, out of pure greed...oh really? If so, what has been direct US/UK support for the Saudi war in Yemen? There's no moral consistency here at all, it's just pure whipping up of resentment based in history and the usual moral blackmail which is continually directed against Germany by pretty much everybody). And it has been taken up and amplified by the media in Germany...the same media which does its best to promote downright suicidal policies in every sphere (especially immigration, but ironically also energy policy, which has led to this dangerous dependence on Russian gas) and to crush any dissent against establishment policies. And tbh that's a problem for me, I can't look favorably on the tactics used to promote Ukrainian interests (even if it's understandable on the part of Ukrainians, given their dire situation), and the campaign the German media is running is really repellent to me. They're using the same tactics they've used to socially destroy anybody opposed to mass immigration against people who have even slight misgivings about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (I'm not talking about people of the kind one encounters on UR who are justifying the Russian invasion or excusing Russian war crimes, it's about how best to act in this present situation without running the risk of a wider war).
I'm actually somewhat undecided on the issue itself...I definitely don't want to see Russia succeed and annex more territory and its looming offensive should be stopped as far as possible. So it's probably necessary to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine (sending light weapons like Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons is something I'm in favour of anyway). But I'm also afraid of the escalation risks. I think a Russia delenda est mindset is lunacy, this isn't going to end well. So there should at least be an attempt to couple weapons shipments to Ukraine with some diplomatic effort for a negotiated end to the war (certainly not on the basis of something like Russia annexing the entire Black Sea coast, of course that wouldn't be acceptable).
As for the security situation of the Baltic states, sure, I see your point. I think you're somewhat exaggerating the risk, but given the deluded imperialist mindset that unfortunately seems to be acceptable to a lot of Russians (e.g. our former host) there are genuine concerns. So in a sense you're right that for the time being the Baltics have to suck up to America as the lesser evil. But I think long term it's going to end badly, because from my point of view the West is on a self-destructive path. It's a tragic dilemma.Replies: @LatW
Greg, I will grant you, identifies with the term. And I think he has ideas that would meet with a normal definition. (pan-national superstate? with separation?)
Perhaps, Thorfinnson does? Though I believe his ideas are different. (Boer-like paternalism, rather than separation? Moderate abolition of borders, rather than trans-oceanic?)
But since I have said that I dislike the term "white", and don't advocate for some superstate (but rather cooperation, including with other races), I feel like it is an odd and inaccurate characterization of me.Replies: @LatW
https://www.bing.com/search?q=unherd&cvid=a2b4a972f1724ed89d73436cd4aa7f9a&aqs=edge.0.0l9.3302j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=LCTS
This points to various things to watch out for. There is a book by Eric Zemmour, Le Suicide français which has related content but goes into more depth.
On the promotion of radical civic nationalism: The overall legacy of the Third Way is Woke Capital and this:
One of the comments on that article is really good as well:
Some assessments of Kafka's German claim that it was influenced by a type of Prague German of the time that some consider overly stilted and bureaucratic, although this is not a universally held opinion among experts. Kafka's father emigrated to Prague from the countryside and was a Czech speaker, switching to German because it had more prestige.
I think these Ukrainian refugees are going to become increasingly unwelcome, perhaps more unwelcome the more official solicitude is shown towards them.Replies: @German_reader, @S, @Beckow
True. A diagnosis of TB was more or less a (slow and horrible) death sentence at one time, like someone being diagnosed with an untreatable cancer today. Orwell died of it.
Then, like AIDS, it became ‘treatable’, though, even as relatively late as the 1966 British film Alfie (starring Michael Caine) a health check of Caine’s character Alfie revealing ‘tubercular shadows’ on the lungs causes a shudder and a mandatory stay at a ‘sanitarium’.
As an aside, seeing 1965 London in the film in bright living color, compared with what it is today, is sad.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfie_(1966_film)
His assessments are often sound, but my impression of him is that he is very driven by his own criticism of the Kremlin, it’s his political niche. So some of what he says might be painted as a bit too gloomy. His desired outcomes are so out there that anything that happens in reality is “not good enough”.
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
P.s. And, you talk about “strings attached” that come with help. Right now, I don’t see any strings attached from Germany at least. The German government has been criticized and bashed by the EEs but the truth is that the German people as a whole are very generous and sympathetic. They do all this with no “strings attached”, from the purity of their hearts. You think that in the future Annalena B will come to Ukraine and say “Hey, we gave you the money & the tanks eventually, now let in all the Africans”? I’m sure they’ll try to encourage Ukraine to be liberal, but how much power will they have over actual Ukrainian politics? Probably some, but not complete.
If there is a real solution for Ukraine that entails real security guarantees from the West (after the fate is decided on the battle field), which I’m not sure are possible, but there is talk about this (from the British, not Germans). If this were to succeed, then it is only normal that Ukraine would be amicably inclined towards the West. This amicability will create a situation where Ukraine could make concessions to the West in the future (as you assume), however, most of the policies will be decided on the ground in Ukraine. I know the conspiracy theory folks here don’t believe that, but that’s how it works. Plus, we will have all the moral, spiritual, physical changes that will come from this war that will also affect society in ways we don’t yet know of.
Ukraine will need a lot of re-construction money after the war, I definitely think that there'll be pressure on Ukraine to curb at least the more open and extreme manifestations of nationalism.Replies: @LatW
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
I probably should be more understanding about Baltic security concerns (see below). But it seems to me there is to some extent an orchestrated anti-German campaign, to exert moral pressure on Germany for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (tons of people on the net going on how Germany is responsible for “genocide” in Ukraine, out of pure greed…oh really? If so, what has been direct US/UK support for the Saudi war in Yemen? There’s no moral consistency here at all, it’s just pure whipping up of resentment based in history and the usual moral blackmail which is continually directed against Germany by pretty much everybody). And it has been taken up and amplified by the media in Germany…the same media which does its best to promote downright suicidal policies in every sphere (especially immigration, but ironically also energy policy, which has led to this dangerous dependence on Russian gas) and to crush any dissent against establishment policies. And tbh that’s a problem for me, I can’t look favorably on the tactics used to promote Ukrainian interests (even if it’s understandable on the part of Ukrainians, given their dire situation), and the campaign the German media is running is really repellent to me. They’re using the same tactics they’ve used to socially destroy anybody opposed to mass immigration against people who have even slight misgivings about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (I’m not talking about people of the kind one encounters on UR who are justifying the Russian invasion or excusing Russian war crimes, it’s about how best to act in this present situation without running the risk of a wider war).
I’m actually somewhat undecided on the issue itself…I definitely don’t want to see Russia succeed and annex more territory and its looming offensive should be stopped as far as possible. So it’s probably necessary to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine (sending light weapons like Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons is something I’m in favour of anyway). But I’m also afraid of the escalation risks. I think a Russia delenda est mindset is lunacy, this isn’t going to end well. So there should at least be an attempt to couple weapons shipments to Ukraine with some diplomatic effort for a negotiated end to the war (certainly not on the basis of something like Russia annexing the entire Black Sea coast, of course that wouldn’t be acceptable).
As for the security situation of the Baltic states, sure, I see your point. I think you’re somewhat exaggerating the risk, but given the deluded imperialist mindset that unfortunately seems to be acceptable to a lot of Russians (e.g. our former host) there are genuine concerns. So in a sense you’re right that for the time being the Baltics have to suck up to America as the lesser evil. But I think long term it’s going to end badly, because from my point of view the West is on a self-destructive path. It’s a tragic dilemma.
The EEs have to work with what they have. Btw, the German military industry seems to not agree with him.
This is an unfortunate situation and we need to think about how to get out of it. All those policies that were built for years (what some in EE call "Putin verstehe") are now being examined openly. On a human level, I do understand the Poles who have lost their filter but we need to find a way to communicate in a civil way. I understand because it may indeed look like some kind of a collusion there (at least from the POV of AfD types, I'm assuming). But these are separate matters. Ideally, it should be possible for conservative political forces, if any are left in Germany, to address each issue separately. As I understand, there are "normal" Germans out there who support Ukraine, I mean, it can't be all liberals and Greens? It would depend on what you mean by "mindset". If you mean wishful thinking or deliberate agitation, that's one thing. But the truth is that Russia brought this on herself and in the case of a Ukrainian victory or in the case of the full Russian goals not being met, there could be consequences. When you start the kind of a campaign that they did, it is bound to have huge consequences that could reverberate very far, in case of a failure. Some of the Russian generals knew this. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it would be a natural consequence, not somebody's lunacy or some deliberate attempt to "march on Moscow".Replies: @German_reader
If there is a real solution for Ukraine that entails real security guarantees from the West (after the fate is decided on the battle field), which I'm not sure are possible, but there is talk about this (from the British, not Germans). If this were to succeed, then it is only normal that Ukraine would be amicably inclined towards the West. This amicability will create a situation where Ukraine could make concessions to the West in the future (as you assume), however, most of the policies will be decided on the ground in Ukraine. I know the conspiracy theory folks here don't believe that, but that's how it works. Plus, we will have all the moral, spiritual, physical changes that will come from this war that will also affect society in ways we don't yet know of.Replies: @German_reader
Eventually, yes (not Baerbock herself, but Heinrich Böll Stiftung and the like).
Ukraine will need a lot of re-construction money after the war, I definitely think that there’ll be pressure on Ukraine to curb at least the more open and extreme manifestations of nationalism.
On the Ukrainian YouTube they even talk about how each Western country will take on and help with the reconstruction of separate Ukrainian regions / cities.... many will genuinely want to help. Yes, the enthusiasm to help UA may subside, as wars grind, fatigue sets in. But there will still be help and willingness to find a permanent working solution. Once Ukraine is given a break, they can re-start the grain shipments (we are already negotiating for them to use the Baltic ports).
Look, there's a benefit for all Europeans here. If they take the bear out of commission, that means all the post-Munich 2007 policies will be greatly reduced, these policies are not as benign as the Western nationalists thought because they're not about equality but the end goal is domination. I know that for many Western WNs, things would be calmer if we laid down and accepted our demise, but we will not be dominated. Ukraine, if it remains somewhat strong, will take the place of Russia as the non-woke center of Europe.
The EEs can then focus on moral & physical reconstruction. The resettlement of the Slavic population in Ukraine so the place doesn't stay empty (so others can't take it). The resistance to the woke cannot happen without it. We will be relieved.
As to the Ukrainian nationalists, they won't be listening to anybody but themselves. Yes, there was already a campaign under Poroshenko to try to reduce them (it may have been connected with their domestic political competition more than ideology). Many nationalists will be hailed as heroes (because they are & it's obvious to everyone). The question remains how anyone can control them in the future. Yes, nationalists historically are sometimes used and then thrown out, but they regenerate as more younger men come of age, as long as boys are born, there will be nationalists.
And besides... most of the UA population don't even care about all those torchlight marches. They just want to be left alone and have their identity. With very few exceptions, such as Irina Farion (whose party received 2% in the elections), they don't talk about Bandera all day. But this is called Nazism by Russia. Even though it's just normal European civic nationalism.
p.s. Btw, I saw that you got angry at utu. I shouldn't have been cheerleading for him so openly (it's just that Mikel provoked me and I like that utu is smart & radical & defends EEs), it wasn't my place. I'll have to admit that when he takes out his heavy artillery, he does become a little scary.
I’ve voted for anti-immigration parties in the USA. America is an ideological nation but too many foreigners coming all at once won’t be able to adequately assimilate to the American ideology. The 1920s were a necessary and successful pause that prevented the USA from becoming something like another Argentina. My domestic policies match those of the commenter Twinkie.
Thomas Sowell, who is black, is probably one of the greatest living Americans. Are you living in America? You are of Balkanoid descent, right? As such you shouldn’t be here based on your idea that the country is only for the original British Protestant settlers.
The foundations for sensible immigration policy are:
-1- National Assimilation
-2- National Need
#1 -- An educated, English speaking European will be easier (as a statistical average) to assimilate than an illiterate non-European. This should be intuitively obvious. There are outliers that will not fit this pattern, such as
-- Antifa members that need to be excluded on other criteria.
-- Mental powerhouses such as Dr. Sowell that should be included.
Many countries have a points based system that facilities this basic screening function.
Crime is inherently non-assimilation behaviour. Yet illegals are rewarded with 'birthright' citizenship for their children. This does not require a Constitutional Amendment to fix. All it requires is administering the Constitution as actually written & intended.
_____
#2 -- What "National Need" is filled by H1B software workers flooding the U.S. market? None. It is a destructive force that is used to move jobs overseas. The law needs to be changed, which is outside of unilateral executive authority. Look for this issue to return in 2024 when MAGA House and Senate majorities are achievable.
Similarly, few "National Needs" are met by family migration of labourers with limited skills/education. It simply floods the bottom end of the job market, often pushing native citizens onto government assistance. Making true migrant labour available for the Agricultural sector could be sound policy if it limits # of months in the U.S. and excludes non-working family members.
PEACE 😇
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
That is not so clear to me. It could rather be a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let’s denigrate the bear for decades, let’s impose unending sanctions, let’s invite the US to all corners of the bear’s den entrance and then, when the bear finally strikes: you see? I told you it was a dangerous beast.
As far as I’m concerned, one of the best possible outcomes of this war would be a defeated, weak and divided Russia. Apart from Russian imperialists and cosmists, who needs an aggressive Russia capable of invading its neighbors, causing thousands of civilian deaths and threatening a nuclear war?
But there are several reasons to dislike the current pro-Ukrainian propaganda on all Western media. On the one hand, they have been ignoring the suffering of Donbass civilians for eight years, not to mention the suffering of civilians caused by our interventions in more remote parts of the world. When you know that there have been multiple victims of a catastrophe but the media only focuses on the suffering of one singular victim and ignores all the rest, it is just human decency to find that kind of coverage unfair.
The other problem is that the obvious effect of this one-sided coverage of the Ukrainian war, often giving full credence to proven liars like the Ukrainian General Staff, is to promote on the Western audience, especially on the US one, the need to keep doing more of the same that caused this and many other problems in the first place: let’s intervene and continue being the policeman of the world. How could we possibly let two countries fight without us taking part in that conflict to give a beating to the bad ones? In 2016 it looked like a non-interventionist US that would disentangle itself from the forever wars was a possibility. Now it’s a pipe dream. Whoever the next republican candidate is, he will run on a militarist, ‘let’s be tougher than Biden against Russia and China platform’ for sure. That’s where the votes right now are.
But of course all that is moot now given Russian actions over the past two months.
Thomas Sowell, who is black, is probably one of the greatest living Americans. Are you living in America? You are of Balkanoid descent, right? As such you shouldn’t be here based on your idea that the country is only for the original British Protestant settlers.Replies: @silviosilver, @A123
Damn bro, you are so original. Never heard that one before.
Look, if you accept that western countries are a demographic disaster zone and only set to get worse, then the more relevant question becomes how to extricate ourselves from that disaster; questions about what might have been or should have been, or who did or said what or why, necessarily take a back seat.
That said, I am not on principle opposed to everyone leaving, although that is hardly an electorally palatable proposal. Nor is it the only solution available. If, however, it did come to that, I would not be particularly dissatisfied, since it would in fact have the result of reuniting “my” people (meaning people who are enough like me that it makes sense to live together).
Lol, Thomas Sowell, Thomas Sowell, Thomas Sowell. The first word on every cuck’s lips. He’s a good guy, but I don’t have much use for him. Let him lead his own people; they need him more anyway.
Personally I had hoped Russia could be a responsible actor in a multipolar world order and check the worst impulses of American hegemonists. Putin wasn’t wrong after all about the character of much of US foreign policy over the last 30 years when it came to issues like the Iraq war or the attempt to overthrow Syria’s government. And Russia’s role in bringing about the nuclear agreement with Iran (now likely to fail permanently) was arguably quite constructive.
But of course all that is moot now given Russian actions over the past two months.
Guilty as charged. Any suggestions to help me improve my lifestyle and make it more meaningful, and “less restrictive”? Or are you just ranting in order to pretend that you actually are living with higher moral standards? 🙂
Thomas Sowell, who is black, is probably one of the greatest living Americans. Are you living in America? You are of Balkanoid descent, right? As such you shouldn’t be here based on your idea that the country is only for the original British Protestant settlers.Replies: @silviosilver, @A123
I concur.
The foundations for sensible immigration policy are:
-1- National Assimilation
-2- National Need
#1 — An educated, English speaking European will be easier (as a statistical average) to assimilate than an illiterate non-European. This should be intuitively obvious. There are outliers that will not fit this pattern, such as
— Antifa members that need to be excluded on other criteria.
— Mental powerhouses such as Dr. Sowell that should be included.
Many countries have a points based system that facilities this basic screening function.
Crime is inherently non-assimilation behaviour. Yet illegals are rewarded with ‘birthright’ citizenship for their children. This does not require a Constitutional Amendment to fix. All it requires is administering the Constitution as actually written & intended.
_____
#2 — What “National Need” is filled by H1B software workers flooding the U.S. market? None. It is a destructive force that is used to move jobs overseas. The law needs to be changed, which is outside of unilateral executive authority. Look for this issue to return in 2024 when MAGA House and Senate majorities are achievable.
Similarly, few “National Needs” are met by family migration of labourers with limited skills/education. It simply floods the bottom end of the job market, often pushing native citizens onto government assistance. Making true migrant labour available for the Agricultural sector could be sound policy if it limits # of months in the U.S. and excludes non-working family members.
PEACE 😇
Russia will attack NATO, sooner or later.Replies: @utu, @S
Probably so, which is exactly what they want.
Following the pre-WWII script to a ‘T’, almost cargo cult like, they’ve got a new ‘Lend-Lease’ plan for Ukraine in the works.
And if that still is not enough to goad Putin (controlled as I think he is) into attacking NATO, the United could go the same’undeclared naval war’ route with Russia as it did with Germany in the Fall of 1941.
Against various laws you say, both US and international? Ha!
The Torpedoed USS Kearny alongside Monssen in Reykjavik, Iceland (Oct, 1941).
In a September [1941] memo to the president, [US Admiral] King wrote, “Whatever we do I am anxious that our first real shooting contact with the enemy be successful. Particularly would I like to get Tirpitz if the opportunity comes our way. Early victory would breed confidence and be a wonderful stimulant
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/lend-lease-for-ukraine-us-revives-wwii-anti-hitler-policy-to-defeat-putin/
https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/
The many decades of the United States pursuing a theoretical world republic/empire with actions which could be characterized as 'the ends justify the means' has a cost. One such cost is the core of the future world government, ie the present US government (or something like it), is thoroughly and utterly corrupt and debased, wantonly steals elections, and hates the very people whom they are supposed to be representing, just as they ultimately hate themselves.
Just how did that Biblical admonition go about gaining the world, but losing one's soul?
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
My consistent position has been to try to minimize civilian and military casualties, by advocating de-escalation and not supplying arms.
If you are suggesting that we should supply arms to everywhere there are such allegations, we should have first have had to do so to the separatist republics. But I have never advocated for that, and neither have you.
I feel like this is a class-signifier, used try to tarnish nationalists with a low-class brush, and make their natural desire for sovereignty unsaleable.
Greg, I will grant you, identifies with the term. And I think he has ideas that would meet with a normal definition. (pan-national superstate? with separation?)
Perhaps, Thorfinnson does? Though I believe his ideas are different. (Boer-like paternalism, rather than separation? Moderate abolition of borders, rather than trans-oceanic?)
But since I have said that I dislike the term “white”, and don’t advocate for some superstate (but rather cooperation, including with other races), I feel like it is an odd and inaccurate characterization of me.
You called this a "gentle invasion", it's not (if such a thing is possible even, maybe the Nazi invasion of Norway), it's one of the worst in recent history by European standards. It seems that your real bias is hidden behind pacifism. Otherwise, I would respect your position, wars should be avoided in this day and age. Not at all. The losses are so severe that it breaks my heart every day (yesterday the Moscovites killed a 3 month old female child, with her mother and grandmother, in Odessa). A friend of mine wanted to go there, I was very scared of that possibility.
But there are men who have said that they are ready to die standing for their country and I listen to those men (and even women) because without such there would no countries. They are defending their only home. No, I'm saying that you're willfully obtuse. No, not at all, some nationalists are very refined. I just don't understand why we have to die / disappear for your abstract goals to be met. Wouldn't it be better for American Putinoids to just focus more on themselves? As in, try to work with your own population to meet your goals.
But if you simply oppose arms shipments & the lend-lease, then I understand your position. If you simply had that position without making all the justifications for the Russian cruelty, then I would respect your position. And I respect your position that NATO should be used to help against mass immigration (or rather border breaches).Replies: @songbird
Ukraine will need a lot of re-construction money after the war, I definitely think that there'll be pressure on Ukraine to curb at least the more open and extreme manifestations of nationalism.Replies: @LatW
Well, you do have a point. But there is another scenario, even if it may seem a little utopian. After the Ukrainian victory (assuming there are no nuclear strikes), Ukraine preserves a significant chunk of its territory. There is a global understanding of the need for a massive reconstruction effort. Funding comes from several avenues. Ukrainians are hailed as heroes in the West for taking on such a strong enemy, for saving the European security system from complete re-arrangement (as Russia wished through its initial ultimatum) or chaos. Thus the pendulum swings in their favor and they gain bargaining power. They use it as their biggest asset to their benefit (re-building), the woke issues become marginal or lower on the priority list. Ukraine can use the fact that they are already multicultural to address these issues.
On the Ukrainian YouTube they even talk about how each Western country will take on and help with the reconstruction of separate Ukrainian regions / cities…. many will genuinely want to help. Yes, the enthusiasm to help UA may subside, as wars grind, fatigue sets in. But there will still be help and willingness to find a permanent working solution. Once Ukraine is given a break, they can re-start the grain shipments (we are already negotiating for them to use the Baltic ports).
Look, there’s a benefit for all Europeans here. If they take the bear out of commission, that means all the post-Munich 2007 policies will be greatly reduced, these policies are not as benign as the Western nationalists thought because they’re not about equality but the end goal is domination. I know that for many Western WNs, things would be calmer if we laid down and accepted our demise, but we will not be dominated. Ukraine, if it remains somewhat strong, will take the place of Russia as the non-woke center of Europe.
The EEs can then focus on moral & physical reconstruction. The resettlement of the Slavic population in Ukraine so the place doesn’t stay empty (so others can’t take it). The resistance to the woke cannot happen without it. We will be relieved.
As to the Ukrainian nationalists, they won’t be listening to anybody but themselves. Yes, there was already a campaign under Poroshenko to try to reduce them (it may have been connected with their domestic political competition more than ideology). Many nationalists will be hailed as heroes (because they are & it’s obvious to everyone). The question remains how anyone can control them in the future. Yes, nationalists historically are sometimes used and then thrown out, but they regenerate as more younger men come of age, as long as boys are born, there will be nationalists.
And besides… most of the UA population don’t even care about all those torchlight marches. They just want to be left alone and have their identity. With very few exceptions, such as Irina Farion (whose party received 2% in the elections), they don’t talk about Bandera all day. But this is called Nazism by Russia. Even though it’s just normal European civic nationalism.
p.s. Btw, I saw that you got angry at utu. I shouldn’t have been cheerleading for him so openly (it’s just that Mikel provoked me and I like that utu is smart & radical & defends EEs), it wasn’t my place. I’ll have to admit that when he takes out his heavy artillery, he does become a little scary.
Then, like AIDS, it became 'treatable', though, even as relatively late as the 1966 British film Alfie (starring Michael Caine) a health check of Caine's character Alfie revealing 'tubercular shadows' on the lungs causes a shudder and a mandatory stay at a 'sanitarium'.
As an aside, seeing 1965 London in the film in bright living color, compared with what it is today, is sad.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfie_(1966_film)Replies: @utu
Streptomycin study against tuberculosis in 1946 – 1948 in UK was the first randomized double blind study that set the future standard of how to conduct studies of drug effectiveness.
Military-politico-economical reality though seems to be such that even Putin himself is starting to slowly crashing into it while at the meeting with UN general secretary:
https://t.me/uniannet/50206
Go at it, Mykola!Replies: @sudden death
I probably should be more understanding about Baltic security concerns (see below). But it seems to me there is to some extent an orchestrated anti-German campaign, to exert moral pressure on Germany for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (tons of people on the net going on how Germany is responsible for "genocide" in Ukraine, out of pure greed...oh really? If so, what has been direct US/UK support for the Saudi war in Yemen? There's no moral consistency here at all, it's just pure whipping up of resentment based in history and the usual moral blackmail which is continually directed against Germany by pretty much everybody). And it has been taken up and amplified by the media in Germany...the same media which does its best to promote downright suicidal policies in every sphere (especially immigration, but ironically also energy policy, which has led to this dangerous dependence on Russian gas) and to crush any dissent against establishment policies. And tbh that's a problem for me, I can't look favorably on the tactics used to promote Ukrainian interests (even if it's understandable on the part of Ukrainians, given their dire situation), and the campaign the German media is running is really repellent to me. They're using the same tactics they've used to socially destroy anybody opposed to mass immigration against people who have even slight misgivings about sending heavy weapons to Ukraine (I'm not talking about people of the kind one encounters on UR who are justifying the Russian invasion or excusing Russian war crimes, it's about how best to act in this present situation without running the risk of a wider war).
I'm actually somewhat undecided on the issue itself...I definitely don't want to see Russia succeed and annex more territory and its looming offensive should be stopped as far as possible. So it's probably necessary to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine (sending light weapons like Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons is something I'm in favour of anyway). But I'm also afraid of the escalation risks. I think a Russia delenda est mindset is lunacy, this isn't going to end well. So there should at least be an attempt to couple weapons shipments to Ukraine with some diplomatic effort for a negotiated end to the war (certainly not on the basis of something like Russia annexing the entire Black Sea coast, of course that wouldn't be acceptable).
As for the security situation of the Baltic states, sure, I see your point. I think you're somewhat exaggerating the risk, but given the deluded imperialist mindset that unfortunately seems to be acceptable to a lot of Russians (e.g. our former host) there are genuine concerns. So in a sense you're right that for the time being the Baltics have to suck up to America as the lesser evil. But I think long term it's going to end badly, because from my point of view the West is on a self-destructive path. It's a tragic dilemma.Replies: @LatW
Everyone was very upset about the bombing of Ukraine, so a lot of emotions came out and the majority of the world sided with Ukraine. That gave way to continuing with this what you call “anti-German campaign”. Also, the Chancellor’s background is the kind that, for instance, the conservative Poles might find difficult to relate to (he’s a classical social democrat and, afaik, in his youth he used to go to protests against “American imperialism”, or something, and this will, ofc, encourage speculation about ties to Russian special services or what not). However, it’s his right to be that way, and it’s his right to be cautious, regardless of what EEs think.
The EEs have to work with what they have. Btw, the German military industry seems to not agree with him.
This is an unfortunate situation and we need to think about how to get out of it. All those policies that were built for years (what some in EE call “Putin verstehe”) are now being examined openly. On a human level, I do understand the Poles who have lost their filter but we need to find a way to communicate in a civil way.
I understand because it may indeed look like some kind of a collusion there (at least from the POV of AfD types, I’m assuming). But these are separate matters. Ideally, it should be possible for conservative political forces, if any are left in Germany, to address each issue separately. As I understand, there are “normal” Germans out there who support Ukraine, I mean, it can’t be all liberals and Greens?
It would depend on what you mean by “mindset”. If you mean wishful thinking or deliberate agitation, that’s one thing. But the truth is that Russia brought this on herself and in the case of a Ukrainian victory or in the case of the full Russian goals not being met, there could be consequences. When you start the kind of a campaign that they did, it is bound to have huge consequences that could reverberate very far, in case of a failure. Some of the Russian generals knew this. I’m not saying it will happen, just that it would be a natural consequence, not somebody’s lunacy or some deliberate attempt to “march on Moscow”.
The way I see it part of the Western political class now thinks Russia can be totally defeated on the battlefield, there'll be regime change and Putin will end up in The Hague. See the comments by Liz Truss today, that the goal is removing Russian forces even from Crimea and the Donbass territories held before February, and that Ukraine should get the most modern Western weapons to achieve that goal. So total victory instead of stopping Russia's offensive and aiming for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine sovereign over the territory it controlled before February and allows for some sort of association with the EU. imo that's crazy and is going to end badly.Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
How about Poland or Hungary? The biggest issue anti-wokism faces in Europe is that it is associated with material poverty: the un-woke are in general poorer than the woke. It is similar in US. Any association with Ukraine will only reinforce it.
It matters: a large percentage of people will side with the better-off even if they dislike wokism. It is the way we are. What Europe needs is a prosperous conservative country that is willing to stand up.
Hungary in Transcarpathia, Poland in Lviv, Romania in Chernovtsy…the rest will send greetings, weapons and encouragements. Without access to Black See, Ukraine will be a lot less interesting. By the way, the grains you plan to ship to the Baltic ports are also grown disproportionally in the south-east.
That is an oxymoron. The war is about territory, if Ukraine shrinks they lose. A small loss or a big one.
Not including Crimea or the parts gone, Russia has grabbed territories accounting for about 18% of Ukraine's grain production:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Ukraine/Ukraine_wheat.jpg
Even with the loss of those territories Ukraine remains one of the world's main grain exporters, with 80% of its prewar production. The further loss of Odessa and Mykolaiv would still leave Ukraine with over 60% of its grains. Ukraine would drop from the world's 5th to the world's 6th largest grain exporter. Gdansk would be a rich grain exporting port again. It's about survival as a nation. Russia demanded Ukraine's complete destruction. Putin's ultimatum demanded "deNazification" (i.e., elimination of all nationalism, because Russia considers nationalism to be a manifestation of Nazism), Russian as second state language, and the elimination of the military (which would open Ukraine up to a bloodless future invasion/"unification"). Even a smaller Ukraine would be preferable to that. As consolation, such a smaller Ukraine (population 25 million or so, not much more than Romania) would probably get into the EU quickly.Replies: @Beckow
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/42/Torpedoed_USS_Kearny_%28DD-432%29_alongside_USS_Monssen_%28DD-436%29_at_Iceland%2C_19_October_1941_%2880-G-28788%29.jpg/220px-Torpedoed_USS_Kearny_%28DD-432%29_alongside_USS_Monssen_%28DD-436%29_at_Iceland%2C_19_October_1941_%2880-G-28788%29.jpg
The Torpedoed USS Kearny alongside Monssen in Reykjavik, Iceland (Oct, 1941).In a September [1941] memo to the president, [US Admiral] King wrote, “Whatever we do I am anxious that our first real shooting contact with the enemy be successful. Particularly would I like to get Tirpitz if the opportunity comes our way. Early victory would breed confidence and be a wonderful stimulant
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/lend-lease-for-ukraine-us-revives-wwii-anti-hitler-policy-to-defeat-putin/https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/Replies: @S
It’s a false dichotomy to say (as some do) that if one is against the US going to war with Putin that one is therefore ‘pro-Putin’, just as it was to claim that one was ‘pro-Hitler’ for being against US entry into WWII. Many such as myself are (and were) quite content with a republic, provided it is not largely chattel or wage slavery (ie so called ‘cheap labor’) based economically.
The many decades of the United States pursuing a theoretical world republic/empire with actions which could be characterized as ‘the ends justify the means’ has a cost. One such cost is the core of the future world government, ie the present US government (or something like it), is thoroughly and utterly corrupt and debased, wantonly steals elections, and hates the very people whom they are supposed to be representing, just as they ultimately hate themselves.
Just how did that Biblical admonition go about gaining the world, but losing one’s soul?
It’s called negotiating power which can only be achieved in the battlefield.
Go at it, Mykola!
Some assessments of Kafka's German claim that it was influenced by a type of Prague German of the time that some consider overly stilted and bureaucratic, although this is not a universally held opinion among experts. Kafka's father emigrated to Prague from the countryside and was a Czech speaker, switching to German because it had more prestige.
I think these Ukrainian refugees are going to become increasingly unwelcome, perhaps more unwelcome the more official solicitude is shown towards them.Replies: @German_reader, @S, @Beckow
Kafka lived in inner Prague in unsanitary, crowded, moldy housing. That and a lack of exercise did him in. Czechs managed to avoid WWII destruction with some superbly servile behavior and the miserable housing stayed until communists did “asanace” – or “healthyfying”. They rebuilt Prague into a pleasant mecca for clueless Westerners.
The bureaucratic work under Habsburgs destroyed a lot of people – it was something that has never been fully tried elsewhere, well, maybe France. Kafka escaped by writing – it is interesting that his contemporaries didn’t think much of his stories: they lived it, it was neither unusual nor particularly pleasant. For foreigners that was much more interesting, especially Americans.
The Ukie refugees are in a tough situation: there are too many of them, the economy is not good, they are seen as competitors, they are demanding and needy unwilling to do work that is actually required. The previous Ukies came and worked for money, they had few illusions. The war ones have high expectations and few marketable skills. As I said, maybe Canada where they could drop the past and do actual work without losing self-respect. But I think after the war many will go back regardless who rules there.
Finland lost the significant chunk of territory against USSR too during 39-44, Ukraine and it’s allies will be more than content to take such horrible loss in the end while having preserved the state and active army despite the grueling fight 😉
AP’s political behavior seems to be typically American in East coast, post Ellis Island immigrants. Ukrainian-American is his community and they donate money “for the old country” and copy the other ethnic communities. This is model where they maintain ethnic pride, support for old country, while also trying to be “good Americans”. They don’t adjust their views in a very consistent way.
AP doesn’t modify his views to be similar to Ukrainians, and I think he will be in many culture clash, if he had to live there. Just like bourgeois American Jews, would be in terrible “culture shock” when they actually immigrate to Israel. AP doesn’t even click “agree” for my Serduchka post (apparently also LatW’s support for Ukraine, has limits).
AP doesn’t slave his views for Ukraine much, he likes all kremlinbot things about Russia (which is not typical of Ukrainian views), but more like Americans who watch Fox News. For example, he doesn’t complain about Russian bombing in Syria or Grozny, and supports Moscow stealing everyone’s money to build Potemkin village in their center (where he even bought property).
In American politics, he supports Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, etc. AP’s passion for Donald Trump, doesn’t match his Ukraine politics, as Trump has hardly prioritized Ukraine. America was extremely restricting what kind of weapons they allowed for Ukraine (no Patriot missiles, no heavy weapons) and Trump even delayed Javelin delivery.
If AP’s politics was more slaved to Ukrainian interests, he should have been opposing American isolationist trends and scared of Trump. He would be supporting (anti-Trump, pro-LGBT, pro-Muslim) politicians like Sadiq Khan https://www.instagram.com/p/Cbp1nglDful.
Also when we discuss things like “Global Britain” ideology, AP was even a bit of a critic. While “Global Britain”, supporting Ukraine was part of their core ideology papers for years, probably the only example of a Western ideology that does that.
I am definitely the weirdo here, the odd duck, the rara avis... the fucking idiot, one might fairly say. I mean, why trouble my soul over another race's dispossession and demise, particularly since my own presence per se is an agent of both?
Many a moon ago I put the same questions to myself but produced a very different set of answers to those I give today; answers that are familiar to most and, I am sure, strike you as intuitively right. My hands aren't clean: the reason I have heard all the standard excuses for immigration and multiracialism a million times is because I have made them all a million times.
What really changed my mind was understanding that if WASPs go down, the rest of us are going down too; but if WASPs can somehow, even at this late date, miraculously survive, there's a chance the rest of us can make it too. (Obviously this logic is peculiar to the anglosphere, it doesn't quite apply the same way to Europe.)Replies: @Dmitry
I don’t place you in the category of either useful idiots of the Right or of the German leadership class. Your position is far more reasonable.
No more bizarre than people like Churchill befriending Stalin. When one’s existence is threatened (immediately in the case of Ukraine, much less so but still in the case of Poland and the Baltics) than any devil will do, and Macron et al are certainly better than Stalin.
Extremely doubtful. Both because these places aren’t desirable for third worlders when Western Europe is so close, and because Eastern Europeans won’t want it. And why deservedly? They should get punished for seeking help when they need form whatever source is available? If Le Pen is a fan of the despot who unleashed Chechens and Buryats to kill and rape European Ukrainians then she deserved to lose and if Rightoids support that monster they deserve to have their dreams shattered.
One of the weaknesses of the forums, is that people don’t always like writing about what they might know. For example, it’s impossible to make you write about Armenians when I asked you.
My impression, is that Thulean is not as knowledgeable about India as he wants to be, which I why I skip his posts when he begins writing about India. If he was Indian, his posts about India, would be much more entertaining.
I know a couple Indian people in real life. Usually if they begin to talk about India, you cannot stop laughing, because they will tell you such surreal things. It’s such a country, where there are infinite bizarre realities and horrors, that Indians can give you endless entertainment just by talking about the streets of their home city or their holy days.
Thulean seems knowledgeable about economics though. I can easily imagine he is the only person here, who has tried to read an economic textbook.
Look at Beckow’s post above. He suddenly became interesting, when he wrote about Czech Republic. If we had a custom where people have to add at least post about something they were knowledgeable about per forum thread..
I think I've probably mentioned it before, but I'm not that deep into Armenian stuff, I grew up in the diaspora twice-removed, we emigrated again before I was an adult, and have long avoided that community like the plague irl, as does my family generally, outwardly 'anglicising' (surname etc) to the point of crypsis. Obviously reasons behind that is a whole can of worms in itself. Probably it was a mistake to use an obviously ethnic handle.
https://youtu.be/BE5woe00wU8?t=96
No, they are grown all over the south, not just the southeast.
Not including Crimea or the parts gone, Russia has grabbed territories accounting for about 18% of Ukraine’s grain production:
Even with the loss of those territories Ukraine remains one of the world’s main grain exporters, with 80% of its prewar production. The further loss of Odessa and Mykolaiv would still leave Ukraine with over 60% of its grains. Ukraine would drop from the world’s 5th to the world’s 6th largest grain exporter. Gdansk would be a rich grain exporting port again.
It’s about survival as a nation. Russia demanded Ukraine’s complete destruction. Putin’s ultimatum demanded “deNazification” (i.e., elimination of all nationalism, because Russia considers nationalism to be a manifestation of Nazism), Russian as second state language, and the elimination of the military (which would open Ukraine up to a bloodless future invasion/”unification”). Even a smaller Ukraine would be preferable to that. As consolation, such a smaller Ukraine (population 25 million or so, not much more than Romania) would probably get into the EU quickly.
___
The EU is catastrophically broken and dysfunctional at effectively every level.
If Le Pen manages to win, perhaps will that finally lead to the dissolution of the EU? It would also be interesting to hear what advocates of a shared EU Military say.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @Beckow
Gazprom announced cutting off Poland and Bulgaria on 4/27 since they were unwilling to pay based on ruble rules. They are going after weak links to see how far they can push. It puts Germany in a tough situation: they can fold or hold out. The workaround that Russia demands means paying in rubles so if they accept it, the point goes to Russia. The big loser will be Western banks.
Within a year all remaining EU customers will pay in rubles or stop buying. Today the gas price is up 17%.
Our main (only) fertilizer plant will shut down. We will have to run out to the fields and do our part…
Bavaria made a sane proposal: (1) Response from the Traffic Light Coalition? Silence. It is not even acceptable to discuss the idea.
__
As badly as Not-The-President Biden is damaging America... Germany's government is even worse for ordinary Germans.
In America -- The mid terms will provide at least some relief in ~2 years.
In Germany -- There is no hope of better governance that I can see.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bavaria-wants-to-reconsider-fracking-amidst-surging-gas-prices/
Perhaps this is the green future that awaits us?
Exactly. It was terrible for Finland to lose those territories but not fighting and acquiescing to becoming a Finnish SSR (as Beckow would have demanded of Finns had he been writing in 1939) while keeping those lands within “Finnish” administrative territory would have been worse.
That was simply a throwaway shitpost, skimming at lunch, while far too busy to write anything worthwhile, ‘PajeetPerspective’ just made me laugh, that’s all.
If I have time in the evening, I’ll reply to GR, utu, Unz and you in detail, maybe give thoughts on interesting books I read this month. After thread fills I’ll be on hiatus a while.
I think I’ve probably mentioned it before, but I’m not that deep into Armenian stuff, I grew up in the diaspora twice-removed, we emigrated again before I was an adult, and have long avoided that community like the plague irl, as does my family generally, outwardly ‘anglicising’ (surname etc) to the point of crypsis. Obviously reasons behind that is a whole can of worms in itself. Probably it was a mistake to use an obviously ethnic handle.
Not including Crimea or the parts gone, Russia has grabbed territories accounting for about 18% of Ukraine's grain production:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Ukraine/Ukraine_wheat.jpg
Even with the loss of those territories Ukraine remains one of the world's main grain exporters, with 80% of its prewar production. The further loss of Odessa and Mykolaiv would still leave Ukraine with over 60% of its grains. Ukraine would drop from the world's 5th to the world's 6th largest grain exporter. Gdansk would be a rich grain exporting port again. It's about survival as a nation. Russia demanded Ukraine's complete destruction. Putin's ultimatum demanded "deNazification" (i.e., elimination of all nationalism, because Russia considers nationalism to be a manifestation of Nazism), Russian as second state language, and the elimination of the military (which would open Ukraine up to a bloodless future invasion/"unification"). Even a smaller Ukraine would be preferable to that. As consolation, such a smaller Ukraine (population 25 million or so, not much more than Romania) would probably get into the EU quickly.Replies: @Beckow
Thanks for the map, but it proves my point. You are assuming that Kharkiv, Dnepro and Zaporozie would stay with Kiev. Maybe. But the southern Zaporozie along Azov See is already in Russian hands. Do you think they will withdraw and give it back to Kiev with access to Azov See after so much fighting? Same for Kharkiv and parts of Dnepro. Longer this goes on, less likely that Kiev will hold on those lands.
They didn’t, that’s your dramatic interpretation. Russia asked for Minsk (autonomy for Donetsk) and no Nato in Ukraine. Why do you exaggerate? De-nazification is in the eye of the beholder, I actually mostly agree that is a non-issue, or a PR issue.
No. Just allow minorities like Russians or Hungarians use of their language where they are numerous and allow schools. That is exactly what EU policy is everywhere and how minority languages are handled in Europe. Today, not 100 years ago.
This obsession you have with controlling what language others use is very harmful, almost pathological. It dramatically increases the case Russia is making because people in Europe understand it well and have learned how to manage it. It is the Achilles heel of Ukraine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24
Full demiliterization and full de-Nazification. He described Ukraine as being ruled by Nazis and demands that Ukraine's military lay down their arms and not defend it. Thus, he demands a purge of the Ukrainian "Nazi" government. He did not necessarily want to occupy Ukraine, but to have it under a pupper government run by non-nationalists (I guess, Yanukovich's former party).Replies: @Beckow
IMO, it must already be having a negative effect on TFR, though it may be hard to quantify, as there are no controls.
Granted, there are developed countries with less diversity and lower TFR, but that is not a good rebuttal, as those are different societies and not controls on the same timeline.
Personally, when I see footage of Southern Europe, I’m shocked by how diverse it. That leaves East Asia, to a degree, but even there, we can imagine negative effects from diversity. It is surpassingly likely that East Asia would have benefited from adopting pro-natalist ideas from the West – which, unfortunately, it has never developed to a substantial degree because of open borders.
I didn’t vote for Hillary or Biden unlike most East Coasters. Most Italian or other such hyphenated Americans are not fluent in their ancestors’ language, unlike Ukrainian diaspora.
I do not actually have cable and therefore don’t watch Foxnews. I have lived in Russia and know about it.
Russia is more brutal, but it is doing in Syria (supporting the legitimate government against rebels) what the West is doing for Ukraine. In Ukraine, prior to the outright invasion, Russia was playing the role of the USA/Turkey/Saudi Arabia in Syria by supporting violent anti-government rebels.
So I am consistent. I support Ukrainian sovereignty, as I support Syrian, Georgian, and even Russian on their own territories.
“Passion?” I considered him to be better than creatures like Hillary or Obama.
In 2020 I voted for Trump in part because he was much better for Ukraine than Obama had been and because the Democratic party had been captured by extremists, while Trump was merely a corrupt northeastern semi-Republican with a big mouth. He was barely okay, which is a lot better than terrible.
And Obama had refused to deliver any weapons. And Obama stopped a missile deal with Poland on the anniversary of Poland being invaded. And Obama had mocked Romney for stating that Russia was a threat. And Obama allowed Nordstream to go through, which Trump stopped with his sanctions. Biden had been Obama’s vice president. And right after Biden became president he deferred to the pro-Russian Germans and allowed Nordstream to restart. Biden’s administration only woke up in November when they had intelligence that Russia was going to actually invade. Clearly Trump had been better than Obama and it was reasonable to judge Biden accordingly.
Trump was less isolationist than people said before his election in 2016 (he was less isolationist than Obama), but he was not very supporting either from the Ukrainian view. The last American president to even visit Ukraine was George W. Bush. Meanwhile, Israel was Trump's exception from isolationism, and he was going to Israel, investing in Israel, etc. I remember when Obama won an election in November 2008. In media in Russia, he was like a new messiah. The authorities were much more excited in those days, than about Trump in 2016 (although Trump was still prefered compared to Hilary Clinton). Although it always follows the same pattern, where they are not grateful about the "second worst" (from their perspective) option, after a few years. But Hillary was arguing for more American support for Ukraine in those years. She wanted Ukraine to be in NATO, etc. She wanted to send weapons to Ukraine. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-ukraine-aid-military-financial-114462 At the same time, Trump was saying "America first" and talking about disengagement from NATO. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/27/donald-trump-nato-isolationist If you were some famous Ukrainian from Ukraine activist, and you posted about an apartment in Moscow after 2014, you would have thousands of haters. It was mainstream for "patriots" Ukraine to have troll campaigns against Ukrainian celebrities who visited Russia for a vacation. But even accepted celebrities in America like Marco Rubio, can be sufficiently "prerevolutionary Cuba first", they would go crazy against anyone who went to Havana. There is complement for you, that you are not so "Ukraine first", that you would disrupt your American citizens' democratic duties to support what you think is best for America.Replies: @AP
I guess because of your Latin language, you interpret “polyphony” as “music with more than one person singing”?
This is song Yahya posted, has people in the background singing the chords, while the YouTuber sings the melody. There is only one melody.
But “polyphony” usually means there are multiple melodies, sometimes even becoming more independent from each other.
Examples of non-independent include e.g. “canon” (multiple versions of the same melody playing with delay), or less-independent might be “fugue” (multiple melodies, imitating each other with variation). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARXh9kKGsbM.
For polyphony in piano, Horowitz “transcriptions” have some of the funniest examples where he adding it as a kind of joke. Look at 7:25 .etc
There is a “circus acrobat” example to show flipping different melodies to each hand.
Good news for the planet: (1)
The Military Industrial Complex has been pushing a new nuclear arms race that would include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Greece, and possibly other nations. Without a new JCPOA2 deal, there is no funding for Khamenei’s threats of Armageddon. The whole MIC effort at highly lucrative mass proliferation ends before it begins.
PEACE 😇
_________
(1) https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2022/04/26/biden-admin-close-to-admitting-nuke-deal-defeat-israeli-officials-say/
The die is already cast. Germany’s Traffic Light Coalition gives the Green Party a veto to end gas imports.
Bavaria made a sane proposal: (1)
Response from the Traffic Light Coalition? Silence. It is not even acceptable to discuss the idea.
__
As badly as Not-The-President Biden is damaging America… Germany’s government is even worse for ordinary Germans.
In America — The mid terms will provide at least some relief in ~2 years.
In Germany — There is no hope of better governance that I can see.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bavaria-wants-to-reconsider-fracking-amidst-surging-gas-prices/
Romney didn’t call it a “threat”, his position was to call it “without question, our #1 geopolitical foe. They fight every cause for the world’s worst actors.”
And Obama was absolutely correct to rip him for that sentiment, from an American perspective. Though, perhaps, not from a Ukrainian or EE one.
If the Soviet Union with double the population, not counting its satellites, did not or could not invade the US, then it was manifestly silly or disingenuous for Romney to pretend that America’s security depended on it taking a more aggressive stance towards Russia.
And Romney is still wrong, from an American perspective. Just a few months ago, he called Ukraine, the biggest country wholly in Europe, “only an appetizer” for Russia.
https://www.baincapitalventures.com/portfolio/china-pnr/ Romney could not, and still cannot, admit the TRUTH. China is America's #1 geopolitical foe. Romney's only future is as a Democrat (or retirement to a consulting gig). He is the proverbial Dead Man Walking in the new Republican Party.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @utu
Rather than say "Russia is #1 threat..." he could have said "I predict there will be more trouble on Russia's borders with their smaller neighbors over ethnic enclaves"
I think this is what he may have been referring to. but he managed to allow that magical negro to joke about "hello the 80s called wanting their foreign policy back."
Romney managed to be even more shallow than that smarmy asshole. Russia was a serious policy issue in 2012. Might have been the last point a good debate in the US could have been voiced between candidates.
No one voted for Biden to start ww3 like he has. Although the election of that bloodthirsty fuck meant ww3 to anyone looking closely at the impeachment players like Vinland and Hunter's business there in Ukieland.
It’s funny you argue in both directions.
It’s a sign you’re from the political perspective, a successfully assimilated “good American”, at least to the extent of Americans after Ellis Island immigrants (who have reputation for less extreme levels of assimilation and disconnection from the “old country”, than previous epochs).
If you were “Ukraine first” as a Ukrainian supporter, as some people criticized your views claimed, you would have been hating Trump, if just slightly less than Obama.
Trump was less isolationist than people said before his election in 2016 (he was less isolationist than Obama), but he was not very supporting either from the Ukrainian view. The last American president to even visit Ukraine was George W. Bush.
Meanwhile, Israel was Trump’s exception from isolationism, and he was going to Israel, investing in Israel, etc.
I remember when Obama won an election in November 2008. In media in Russia, he was like a new messiah. The authorities were much more excited in those days, than about Trump in 2016 (although Trump was still prefered compared to Hilary Clinton). Although it always follows the same pattern, where they are not grateful about the “second worst” (from their perspective) option, after a few years.
But Hillary was arguing for more American support for Ukraine in those years. She wanted Ukraine to be in NATO, etc. She wanted to send weapons to Ukraine. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-ukraine-aid-military-financial-114462 At the same time, Trump was saying “America first” and talking about disengagement from NATO. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/27/donald-trump-nato-isolationist
If you were some famous Ukrainian from Ukraine activist, and you posted about an apartment in Moscow after 2014, you would have thousands of haters. It was mainstream for “patriots” Ukraine to have troll campaigns against Ukrainian celebrities who visited Russia for a vacation.
But even accepted celebrities in America like Marco Rubio, can be sufficiently “prerevolutionary Cuba first”, they would go crazy against anyone who went to Havana.
There is complement for you, that you are not so “Ukraine first”, that you would disrupt your American citizens’ democratic duties to support what you think is best for America.
The Ukrainian case against Hillary:
http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/whos-truly-beholden-to-the-kremlin/
Let’s cut through the hysteria and examine the facts.
Long before Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump exchanged compliments, Bill Clinton received a phone call from Mr. Putin in 2010 thanking him personally for delivering a speech for $500,000, paid by a Russian investment bank that was promoting shares in a company that controlled 20 percent of America’s supply of uranium, a critical component in nuclear weapons.
The State Department, led by Hillary Clinton, signed off on the deal just two months after her husband’s speech, enabling the Russian state nuclear agency to not only acquire 20 percent of America’s uranium but also own the land in which the deposits are located.
She was also secretary of state when $145 million in donations reached the Clinton Foundation from the shareholders of the company that sold America’s uranium.
Yet that wasn’t the only money the Clintons raised from the Russians that resulted in the exchange for sensitive materials.
Out of 28 American, European and Russian companies that participated in the transfer of classified technology to the Skolkovo technology park outside of Moscow, 17 were Clinton Foundation donors or paid for speeches by Mr. Clinton.
By 2014, when Russia was invading Ukraine, the FBI issued “an extraordinary warning” to several technology companies involved with Skolkovo. The true motives of the Russians is to gain access to classified, sensitive and emerging technology from the companies, an FBI agent warned.
John Podesta, the chairman of the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, sat on the executive board, alongside key Russian officials, of an energy company that received the FBI’s warning. That didn’t stop him from accepting $35 million from a Putin-connected government fund.
E-mails released by Wikileaks showed that Mr. Podesta continued to be involved in the company in 2015, even after the Russian invasion and after claiming to be divested. Furthermore, Mr. Podesta is reported to have received $5.25 million for his think tank, Center for American Progress, through a secretive chain of entities that could lead to Russian oligarchs, among them Ruben Vardanyan, who sat on the energy company board, according to the Government Accountability Institute.
Hillary Clinton supporters erupted in outrage when Mr. Trump hired Paul Manafort to help run his campaign. (Is it not a positive signal that Mr. Trump dumped him after such criticism?) But their silence was deafening when it was revealed in late August that Mr. Manafort hired the Podesta Group to lobby on behalf of Viktor Yanukovych’s allies in the Party of Regions.
The Podesta Group lobbied until 2014 to downplay the need for a congressional resolution to pressure Mr. Yanukovych to release Yulia Tymoshenko from prison, the Associated Press reported. Moreover, it failed to file the proper paperwork, making the lobbying illegal.
Clinton supporters also drummed up hysteria about Mr. Trump being too busy to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
Yet that pales in comparison to the very same Mr. Podesta – having already taken millions as part of sensitive technology transfers – reacting with disinterest (as revealed by Wikileaks) to Victor Pinchuk’s pleas to get Mr. Clinton and a group of Western leaders to voice support for Ukraine as the Russian military aggression peaked in the winter of 2015.
Now the FBI has confirmed this week that its investigations of Mr. Trump, launched in the summer, have uncovered no ties to the Kremlin. Nothing. Nichoho. Zero.
Voters should consider that the Clintons and Mr. Podesta have far more questionable ties to the Kremlin, possibly criminal, than Mr. Trump and his entourage.Replies: @Dmitry
Romney = Bain Capital = CCP Elites. They openly admit their ties to CCP controlled financial markets.
https://www.baincapitalventures.com/portfolio/china-pnr/
Romney could not, and still cannot, admit the TRUTH. China is America’s #1 geopolitical foe. Romney’s only future is as a Democrat (or retirement to a consulting gig). He is the proverbial Dead Man Walking in the new Republican Party.
PEACE 😇
It is amazing that Putin did so much good with his war against Ukraine. China is deflated. Germany is in the process of restoring its moral spine and developing its identity as a part of Western civilization. No more fantasies about the Teutonic-Asiatic future. EU will be better for it. No more double dealing by Germany.
Sad to see; as terrible as the USSR was, it did make efforts to promote ethnic and religious co-operation (at the point of a bayonet for sure). Also Russians who had nothing to do with the war are going to be treated as pariahs in much of Europe, all thanks to one little man’s delusions (and people like Karlin who played along)
There is no such thing as “traditional Ukrainian music” you retarded, ignorant trashbag idiot. Its all russian culture you POS- which has been culturally appropriated by west Ukrainian scum, just like they have done with borscht and any other thing “Ukrainian”.
I am concerned though, very traumatised about the Golodomor that is happening in the “Ukraine” right now- the tragic Golodomor of blue duct tape.
So much new blue duct tape is being used as the ukronazi bodies are piling up in very, very high amounts, forcing even more blue duct tape for ukronazi soldiers
This Golodomor of the tape is so bad that young ukronazi plankton from the west of the fake state are having to wrap green duct tape around their arms now.
Mr Hack, I am asking you to lobby the US government to send a huge cargo of blue duct tape to 404 and stop this Golodomor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8-h21rk0Co
Geraldina showing some signs of stress contemplating his future prospects of unemployment and becoming a subsistence farmer in the countryside? Look at the upside, your soft hands will become hardened by good honest work and strong lungs will develop from a lot of fresh air being breathed in while being in the outdoors a lot.Replies: @Gerard1234
Go at it, Mykola!Replies: @sudden death
Все…все буде добре 😉
Don’t have anything much against Vera Serduchka as she/he is parody/spoof performer, but combination of Arestovich’s speaking voice and some light breakbeat&saxo like sounds is way better:
PEACE 😇
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vnbUbzzF55Y
The Arestovych track is funny. He's got a very laid back demeanor, and they called him the "national psychotherapist" or something. The guy who calms everyone down (that's what this track must be about). Btw, he's a former actor and has his own school for self-development. Half of his vlogs are about philosophy, psychology, etc. Might be worth looking into, given how much he predicted (there's a video out there from 6 years ago where he predicts this war almost to a tee).
Btw, Dmitry called Vera Serdyuchka "Ukrainian traditional music" but it's just good old Russian world estrada. I have nothing against him/her (them, lol) either, it's just a joke. Btw, he took his banishment from Russia with great fortitude as well as humor.
Dmitry thought we should consider it serious Ukrainian music, he can be funny that way.
Here are some good Ukrainian tracks:
For working out (very popular called "Good afternoon, we're from Ukraine.")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvgNgTPTkSo
A hit from a few weeks ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvJLVg08TMs
"A new word became known to their tsar - Bayraktar."
Oh, and I want you to see this. It's just too good. :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nakEkSol9-0
Armin Van Buuren visited Kyiv A few years ago. Not Ukrainian music obviously. A concert popular in Ukraine though.
PEACE 😇
I am concerned though, very traumatised about the Golodomor that is happening in the "Ukraine" right now- the tragic Golodomor of blue duct tape.
So much new blue duct tape is being used as the ukronazi bodies are piling up in very, very high amounts, forcing even more blue duct tape for ukronazi soldiers
This Golodomor of the tape is so bad that young ukronazi plankton from the west of the fake state are having to wrap green duct tape around their arms now.
Mr Hack, I am asking you to lobby the US government to send a huge cargo of blue duct tape to 404 and stop this GolodomorReplies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
Musical greetings from Ukrainians 😉
https://www.baincapitalventures.com/portfolio/china-pnr/ Romney could not, and still cannot, admit the TRUTH. China is America's #1 geopolitical foe. Romney's only future is as a Democrat (or retirement to a consulting gig). He is the proverbial Dead Man Walking in the new Republican Party.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @utu
That would be funny, if he switched parties.
I’ve been listening to another Peter Zeihan podcast. He can be amusing, at times, though I don’t agree with many of his ideas.
In this one, he was interviewed by an Indian, and I was nearly rolling on the floor with laughter. The Indian proposed that Putin satisfy Russia’s geostrategic and demographic weaknesses by pursuing the easier course of adopting the Western strategy of importing millions of Indians and teaching them Russian. He didn’t say “Indians”, of course, but “Asians.” He said Russians have “the land” and “the technology” to do it, but “We have never heard of that from the Russian side, at all.”
IMO, Zeihan is brilliant at brown-nosing Indians.
RF is importing more than plenty of muslim Central Asians though and is even placing signs in Moscow metro in their languages, so Indians are quite rightly confused about the lack of more inclusion&diversity there when Hindus do not have such an open mass welcoming…yet 😉
Orban seems like the only Euro leader who has adapted some level of demographic realism, but even he is kind of cagey about it. I don't get any idea that he is trying to export his ideas, or find allies. Either really smart or really dumb, depending on how you look at it.
I would make jokes about MSNBC. However, that does not seem to be necessary. They have engaged *self humiliation* mode….
PEACE 😇
Wrong. With the lands currently occupied by Russia Ukraine still retains about 80% of its February 2022 agriculture. That is if Russia doesn’t withdraw but doesn’t seize more land.
Maybe. Also possible, Russia exhausts itself and loses some or even all of the land it took. Ukraine has retaken villages in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.
Putin’s own words: “The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine” “The current events have nothing to do with a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They are connected with the defending Russia from those who have taken Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and our people.” “Your fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazi occupiers and did not defend our common Motherland to allow today’s neo-Nazis to seize power in Ukraine. You swore the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people and not to the junta, the people’s adversary which is plundering Ukraine and humiliating the Ukrainian people.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24
Full demiliterization and full de-Nazification. He described Ukraine as being ruled by Nazis and demands that Ukraine’s military lay down their arms and not defend it. Thus, he demands a purge of the Ukrainian “Nazi” government. He did not necessarily want to occupy Ukraine, but to have it under a pupper government run by non-nationalists (I guess, Yanukovich’s former party).
I usually stay away from the "denazify" part of this. It is too vague, depends on multiple factors, symbols, demonization, memories, etc... the whole thing is very emotional. I am sure it means a lot to some locals - on both sides - but it is mostly in the realm of PR, narratives, etc... What is more relevant is the behavior that both sides exhibit today. But I honestly don't know how would anyone measure "denazification". I suspect Putin and Co. use the term for internal mobilization. Kind of like the mirror reflection of the Western campaign to demonize Putin and Russia in general. I wish they would both stop.Replies: @AP
I am concerned though, very traumatised about the Golodomor that is happening in the "Ukraine" right now- the tragic Golodomor of blue duct tape.
So much new blue duct tape is being used as the ukronazi bodies are piling up in very, very high amounts, forcing even more blue duct tape for ukronazi soldiers
This Golodomor of the tape is so bad that young ukronazi plankton from the west of the fake state are having to wrap green duct tape around their arms now.
Mr Hack, I am asking you to lobby the US government to send a huge cargo of blue duct tape to 404 and stop this GolodomorReplies: @sudden death, @Mr. Hack
Buck up Geraldina, I know that it’s extremely unfair that you and other Russians will be assigned to live in a real economic backwoods, not because of anything your fault, but all due to that insane piece of s__t dictator that is running down your country. All because he seems to sprout a chubby at the prospect of finding “Nazis” in Ukraine. Your country will be a backwoods for at least 10 years, maybe 20. You’ll have to curtail your concert touring career and buy yourself a shovel and a small dacha somewhere outside of the city where you now live. It’s the way generations of your countrymen have survived for centuries, no matter what insane ruler was sitting with the kremlin. Lots of potatoes in the future for you, but you can live well on potatoes, I’ve been told.
Geraldina showing some signs of stress contemplating his future prospects of unemployment and becoming a subsistence farmer in the countryside? Look at the upside, your soft hands will become hardened by good honest work and strong lungs will develop from a lot of fresh air being breathed in while being in the outdoors a lot.
You would think a dumbfuck as you would at least have the brain to realise how embarrassing that even with total sanctions war placed on it, Russia's GDP loss for this year is predicted to be far LESS than Banderastan's in 2014!!! The Kremlin (well there are several in Russia you dipshit, but let us say you are talking about the Russian government in Moscow, or whoever was sitting in it) was not the power decision-maker for 220 out of the last 320 years you literal f*ckwit...... because Saint Petersburg was the centre of power, idiot....... the same Saint Petersburg that was the sole founder, creater of...... Ukrainian "nationalism"!!! Nothing says "fake nation" more than having the national "consciousness" and fake ideology created in the so-called "aggressor state" , for a country that only exists because of Stalin and Lenin
I have a (good size and cosy) dacha already you retard.... with several shovels - the shovels aren't a thing to boast about of course - except that the average ukrop will probably be willing to transplant their kidney to me should I need it - just so they can get their hands on one of these shovels
Farming is a very noble work, but how dumb is a POS like you to claim I will be doing this, when you know that as a Civil Engineer I will be making huge money from working on projects in Ukraine - primarily in rebuilding all the bridges that ukronazis have blownup. LOL - I will be a true war profiteer!!
Interesting of course that you dont show any actual concern for the ukroscum getting slaughtered
https://www.baincapitalventures.com/portfolio/china-pnr/ Romney could not, and still cannot, admit the TRUTH. China is America's #1 geopolitical foe. Romney's only future is as a Democrat (or retirement to a consulting gig). He is the proverbial Dead Man Walking in the new Republican Party.
PEACE 😇Replies: @songbird, @utu
That’s why killing the chicken is very important so the monkey gets really scared. Russia is the chicken and China is the monkey in this game. The monkey is already very scared seeing the power of the West, how the West unified within few days behind the military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and that Russia indeed has feet of clay as it was always suspected in China. China knows that it is much more vulnerable to sanctions than Russia and unlike Russia it has no strategic depth. Taiwan can really relax now. China will not dare to make any move against it for decades.
It is amazing that Putin did so much good with his war against Ukraine. China is deflated. Germany is in the process of restoring its moral spine and developing its identity as a part of Western civilization. No more fantasies about the Teutonic-Asiatic future. EU will be better for it. No more double dealing by Germany.
Obama was also right that Russia is only a regional power in conventional terms; however, it’s in our interests to counter them in Europe or our most valuable and loyal allies will start looking elsewhere.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24
Full demiliterization and full de-Nazification. He described Ukraine as being ruled by Nazis and demands that Ukraine's military lay down their arms and not defend it. Thus, he demands a purge of the Ukrainian "Nazi" government. He did not necessarily want to occupy Ukraine, but to have it under a pupper government run by non-nationalists (I guess, Yanukovich's former party).Replies: @Beckow
The map doesn’t have enough granularity to determine precisely what the % would be. Suffice to say the agricultural potential of Ukraine will diminish – by how much we will see. It looks very likely that Russia wants the Black See coast, or most of it – and that implies a hinterland with a lot of grain growing.
What you assign to that statement is a very extreme interpretation: it simply doesn’t say “destroy Ukraine”. Demilitarization is a continuum: anything from Ukraine losing offensive capability to full neutral status w/out an army. You choose to read it in the most extreme way, but those are just words, opening statements that Kiev could had worked with.
I usually stay away from the “denazify” part of this. It is too vague, depends on multiple factors, symbols, demonization, memories, etc… the whole thing is very emotional. I am sure it means a lot to some locals – on both sides – but it is mostly in the realm of PR, narratives, etc… What is more relevant is the behavior that both sides exhibit today. But I honestly don’t know how would anyone measure “denazification”. I suspect Putin and Co. use the term for internal mobilization. Kind of like the mirror reflection of the Western campaign to demonize Putin and Russia in general. I wish they would both stop.
But current losses are about 80% of the pre-war output. If Ukraine loses this it will still have over 60% of its prewar output and its ranking of top grain exporters will drop from 5th in the world to 6th in the world. It will also probably have to export via Gdansk rather than Odessa, like in the PLC days.
If Ukraine is split along the old Orange-Blue electoral line (i.e., loses Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv) it still has over 40% of its grain output and becomes the world's 9th largest grain exporter. It's pretty clear. Remove the government (obviously not replacing it with a nationalistic one but with a pro-Russian one) and remove the military.
What grifting? Go lift weights & carry weapons.
That’s lit all I say or do,
Fkn retard Armenoid.
You’re semitic now kicked out of IE.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
He lit takes standard Hindu cuckservative positions on every issue – from where does he get them?
What exactly do you find funny sneaker man?
I usually stay away from the "denazify" part of this. It is too vague, depends on multiple factors, symbols, demonization, memories, etc... the whole thing is very emotional. I am sure it means a lot to some locals - on both sides - but it is mostly in the realm of PR, narratives, etc... What is more relevant is the behavior that both sides exhibit today. But I honestly don't know how would anyone measure "denazification". I suspect Putin and Co. use the term for internal mobilization. Kind of like the mirror reflection of the Western campaign to demonize Putin and Russia in general. I wish they would both stop.Replies: @AP
It provides percentage of Ukraine’s grain by province. Of course you have to calibrate a bit without Crimea and Donbas which were lost in 2014 and I admit I am too lazy to do so it is an estimate.
But current losses are about 80% of the pre-war output.
If Ukraine loses this it will still have over 60% of its prewar output and its ranking of top grain exporters will drop from 5th in the world to 6th in the world. It will also probably have to export via Gdansk rather than Odessa, like in the PLC days.
If Ukraine is split along the old Orange-Blue electoral line (i.e., loses Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv) it still has over 40% of its grain output and becomes the world’s 9th largest grain exporter.
It’s pretty clear. Remove the government (obviously not replacing it with a nationalistic one but with a pro-Russian one) and remove the military.
Trump was less isolationist than people said before his election in 2016 (he was less isolationist than Obama), but he was not very supporting either from the Ukrainian view. The last American president to even visit Ukraine was George W. Bush. Meanwhile, Israel was Trump's exception from isolationism, and he was going to Israel, investing in Israel, etc. I remember when Obama won an election in November 2008. In media in Russia, he was like a new messiah. The authorities were much more excited in those days, than about Trump in 2016 (although Trump was still prefered compared to Hilary Clinton). Although it always follows the same pattern, where they are not grateful about the "second worst" (from their perspective) option, after a few years. But Hillary was arguing for more American support for Ukraine in those years. She wanted Ukraine to be in NATO, etc. She wanted to send weapons to Ukraine. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-ukraine-aid-military-financial-114462 At the same time, Trump was saying "America first" and talking about disengagement from NATO. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/27/donald-trump-nato-isolationist If you were some famous Ukrainian from Ukraine activist, and you posted about an apartment in Moscow after 2014, you would have thousands of haters. It was mainstream for "patriots" Ukraine to have troll campaigns against Ukrainian celebrities who visited Russia for a vacation. But even accepted celebrities in America like Marco Rubio, can be sufficiently "prerevolutionary Cuba first", they would go crazy against anyone who went to Havana. There is complement for you, that you are not so "Ukraine first", that you would disrupt your American citizens' democratic duties to support what you think is best for America.Replies: @AP
Well, I live here and was born here so I take America’s interests into account also. It would be indecent not to under such circumstances. I don’t hate my neighbors and friends.
He wasn’t only slightly better than Obama for Ukraine, but much better. Or at least the people in his administration were (I suspect he did not care much personally either way). It was an easy choice.
She was maybe not as bad as Obama but was also in his administration that did little to help Ukraine.
The Ukrainian case against Hillary:
http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/whos-truly-beholden-to-the-kremlin/
Let’s cut through the hysteria and examine the facts.
Long before Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump exchanged compliments, Bill Clinton received a phone call from Mr. Putin in 2010 thanking him personally for delivering a speech for \$500,000, paid by a Russian investment bank that was promoting shares in a company that controlled 20 percent of America’s supply of uranium, a critical component in nuclear weapons.
The State Department, led by Hillary Clinton, signed off on the deal just two months after her husband’s speech, enabling the Russian state nuclear agency to not only acquire 20 percent of America’s uranium but also own the land in which the deposits are located.
She was also secretary of state when \$145 million in donations reached the Clinton Foundation from the shareholders of the company that sold America’s uranium.
Yet that wasn’t the only money the Clintons raised from the Russians that resulted in the exchange for sensitive materials.
Out of 28 American, European and Russian companies that participated in the transfer of classified technology to the Skolkovo technology park outside of Moscow, 17 were Clinton Foundation donors or paid for speeches by Mr. Clinton.
By 2014, when Russia was invading Ukraine, the FBI issued “an extraordinary warning” to several technology companies involved with Skolkovo. The true motives of the Russians is to gain access to classified, sensitive and emerging technology from the companies, an FBI agent warned.
John Podesta, the chairman of the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, sat on the executive board, alongside key Russian officials, of an energy company that received the FBI’s warning. That didn’t stop him from accepting \$35 million from a Putin-connected government fund.
E-mails released by Wikileaks showed that Mr. Podesta continued to be involved in the company in 2015, even after the Russian invasion and after claiming to be divested. Furthermore, Mr. Podesta is reported to have received \$5.25 million for his think tank, Center for American Progress, through a secretive chain of entities that could lead to Russian oligarchs, among them Ruben Vardanyan, who sat on the energy company board, according to the Government Accountability Institute.
Hillary Clinton supporters erupted in outrage when Mr. Trump hired Paul Manafort to help run his campaign. (Is it not a positive signal that Mr. Trump dumped him after such criticism?) But their silence was deafening when it was revealed in late August that Mr. Manafort hired the Podesta Group to lobby on behalf of Viktor Yanukovych’s allies in the Party of Regions.
The Podesta Group lobbied until 2014 to downplay the need for a congressional resolution to pressure Mr. Yanukovych to release Yulia Tymoshenko from prison, the Associated Press reported. Moreover, it failed to file the proper paperwork, making the lobbying illegal.
Clinton supporters also drummed up hysteria about Mr. Trump being too busy to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
Yet that pales in comparison to the very same Mr. Podesta – having already taken millions as part of sensitive technology transfers – reacting with disinterest (as revealed by Wikileaks) to Victor Pinchuk’s pleas to get Mr. Clinton and a group of Western leaders to voice support for Ukraine as the Russian military aggression peaked in the winter of 2015.
Now the FBI has confirmed this week that its investigations of Mr. Trump, launched in the summer, have uncovered no ties to the Kremlin. Nothing. Nichoho. Zero.
Voters should consider that the Clintons and Mr. Podesta have far more questionable ties to the Kremlin, possibly criminal, than Mr. Trump and his entourage.
Some are calling it "false flag." Others an attempt by the Ukrainians to broaden the conflict and draw the West in.Replies: @Wokechoke
Every Russian enclave is now on the chopping block. Fight or die time. Death or Glory.
What’s funny about Romney, he’s got a few things right.
Rather than say “Russia is #1 threat…” he could have said “I predict there will be more trouble on Russia’s borders with their smaller neighbors over ethnic enclaves”
I think this is what he may have been referring to. but he managed to allow that magical negro to joke about “hello the 80s called wanting their foreign policy back.”
Romney managed to be even more shallow than that smarmy asshole. Russia was a serious policy issue in 2012. Might have been the last point a good debate in the US could have been voiced between candidates.
No one voted for Biden to start ww3 like he has. Although the election of that bloodthirsty fuck meant ww3 to anyone looking closely at the impeachment players like Vinland and Hunter’s business there in Ukieland.
Among folks with a US military background, Ritter and Macgregor aren’t the only ones taking the stance they do:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-biden-can-end-war-ukraine-201132
Technically speaking, the US doesn’t really need allies. (Canada, maybe?) But it is resource rich and has the single largest area of arable land in the world. It can defend its backyard. And doesn’t even need to, because it has a large nuclear arsenal.
IMO, US wouldn’t have been so badly off, if it had just annexed Mexico, instead of opening its borders to the world. Underappreciated, weighty reason for its current craziness is that immigration has caused the number of blacks to double (and perhaps increased the “talented tenth” above the general increase, due to selective immigration) so that’s seriously increased color-signaling.
Orban seems like the only Euro leader who has adapted some level of demographic realism, but even he is kind of cagey about it. I don’t get any idea that he is trying to export his ideas, or find allies. Either really smart or really dumb, depending on how you look at it.
Russia’s pulled about 20 million Russians from the old Soviet Republics so far, and probably the younger folks.
It is a very remote possibility, but if Mackinder and Haushofer’s prophecies ever bear fruit and a Eurasian empire does emerge, we’ll want Central+Western Europe and Japan,Korea, etc.as allies and buffers.
A good account to follow, Ukrainian-Canadian volunteer. UA had some issues with managing the “foreign legion” early in the war, but now I think the word is out that unless you have military experience you’re going to be more hindrance than help.
The first thing I’d suggest is to improve your reading comprehension, because I didn’t describe your lifestyle as “restrictive.” I suggested that your political interests are largely – not wholly, largely – restricted to – ie focused on – maintaining your ability to lead your Ukraine-first lifestyle; to be physically located in America, but mentally located in Ukraine, without having to justify yourself to anyone of an America-first bent.
Not that this requires much effort. You don’t even have to grease any palms to keep the machine rolling – Big Hebrew took care of that decades ago. The program essentially runs on autopilot, with even the formulaic, repetitious incantations about diversity functioning more to rub dissenters’ noses in it than in being necessary to prop up the regime, although I’m sure they roll joyously off the tongues of cucksouled boomers like yourself all the same.
I do find it irritating when people from almost mono-ethnic countries like Poland or Lithuania, who often seem very intent on keeping and cherishing their own national myths, mock Western right-wingers and get all enthusiastic about the support Western shitlibs like Germany's Greens are now offering to Ukraine (understandable that Ukrainians take the support they can get in their present situation...but it will come with strings attached). There's a real cultural disconnect here and as I wrote above, I think it will boomerang on those national-minded Eastern Europeans after the war (if it doesn't end in nuclear armaggedon, that is).Replies: @silviosilver
Oh, I see. “Yes, yes, we’ll all diversify, but, uh, buddy, you go first.” I wonder…
But even if he’s sincere, I don’t see why that gets him off the hook. Imagine he was your neighbor in Germany. Would you really say “Oh, you sincerely enjoy diversity? Well that makes it okay then. I guess I can’t complain about you.”
Greg, I will grant you, identifies with the term. And I think he has ideas that would meet with a normal definition. (pan-national superstate? with separation?)
Perhaps, Thorfinnson does? Though I believe his ideas are different. (Boer-like paternalism, rather than separation? Moderate abolition of borders, rather than trans-oceanic?)
But since I have said that I dislike the term "white", and don't advocate for some superstate (but rather cooperation, including with other races), I feel like it is an odd and inaccurate characterization of me.Replies: @LatW
It might be so, but why aren’t you advocating de-escalation on the Moscovite side? There was no strategic need to bomb civilian areas. It is absolutely insane to use such weapons against cities. They could’ve just annexed some areas in Donbas, without bombing big cities. This was pure, cruel, sadistic revenge — the Russophones of Eastern Ukraine took on a Ukrainian identity so they need to be punished as “traitors”.
You called this a “gentle invasion”, it’s not (if such a thing is possible even, maybe the Nazi invasion of Norway), it’s one of the worst in recent history by European standards. It seems that your real bias is hidden behind pacifism. Otherwise, I would respect your position, wars should be avoided in this day and age.
Not at all. The losses are so severe that it breaks my heart every day (yesterday the Moscovites killed a 3 month old female child, with her mother and grandmother, in Odessa). A friend of mine wanted to go there, I was very scared of that possibility.
But there are men who have said that they are ready to die standing for their country and I listen to those men (and even women) because without such there would no countries. They are defending their only home.
No, I’m saying that you’re willfully obtuse.
No, not at all, some nationalists are very refined. I just don’t understand why we have to die / disappear for your abstract goals to be met. Wouldn’t it be better for American Putinoids to just focus more on themselves? As in, try to work with your own population to meet your goals.
But if you simply oppose arms shipments & the lend-lease, then I understand your position. If you simply had that position without making all the justifications for the Russian cruelty, then I would respect your position. And I respect your position that NATO should be used to help against mass immigration (or rather border breaches).
I might add that my characterization was based on a path of de-escalation. Obviously, further escalation, such as you appear to be advocating, leads to more deviation from the initial potentialities of a low number of civilian casualties. If I thought they would listen to me, perhaps I would. But it wouldn't be consistent for me to advocate de-escalation on the Russian side, while advocating increasing intervention on the other side. This option wasn't presented to them, which really highlights the ugly side of the support that Ukraine is receiving - it leads to no compromises.
When the invasion started, Russia should have immediately been offered a small set of concessions. Neutrality of Ukraine, recognition of Crimea (not even a real part of Ukraine) with water rights and the separatist republics (only 6% of Ukraine's land and really populated largely by Russians), lifting of sanctions. Perhaps, Putin would not have stopped there - but we will never know, though it would have been very cheap to find out. (And perhaps, would have cost nothing at all, if the offer had been turned down.) I'm not the one tacitly comparing it to the Mongols, the Nazis on the Eastern Front, the Soviets, or even the Allied fire- and atomic bombings, and this is what you are doing when you say "total warfare."
Do you realize that 120,000-200,000 Japanese perished in the course of one night, in Tokyo, during WW2? You know what? If this was "total warfare" (using every tool available for maximum destruction), then Kiev and Lviv would have already gone up in mushroom clouds.
It strikes me that one obvious way to debunk your characterization of it as "total warfare" is to note that the Russian state has not geared up its economy to a life or death struggle. It has not done a general draft, one can still buy many consumer products at the supermarket. Russia still has nukes. I don't even understand what you are saying here. If you are talking about Balts, well, Stalin didn't make you disappear. Do you think Putin is worse?
With more sense, I would flip it back on you: why do Ukrainians have to die, for your abstract goals to be met? Maybe, just, maybe, the conflict has zero impact on you, and for the cost of the paranoia and hang-ups of EEs, outside of Ukraine, a lot of people inside of Ukraine are dying.
Balts are part of NATO. Frankly, no offense, but I think it was one of the dumbest ideas of all history to let them join. (Pure liability and pure insult to Russians, zero defensive value.) Even Hitler, one of the kings of bad ideas, realized it was a bad idea, to demand the Balts.
But I would have clear communication with Putin. Make him understand that we will be supporting our formal allies, not retreating forever.
BTW, I consider "Putinoid" another silly characterization of me. For one, I don't believe in cults of personality. But, anyway, if we are to sort along 2D groupings, I suppose that would make you a "Zelenskyite." And perhaps that would be a logical characterization, as you've said he is a "good businessman." Is that in the same sense as Hunter Biden? Anyway, that is more of an endorsement than I have ever given Trump, Xi, or Putin.Replies: @LatW
Yes, this is a very obvious trend (and a broader question that goes beyond Ukraine). It seems when societies get wealthier they want to share. Can a wealthy European country be non-woke (kind of like Japan)? Visegrad countries are in a good spot right now, but will it last (I personally feel it will, for a while but it should be permanent). Some level of tolerance for diversity is good as long as it’s not taken to extremes.
The "diversity" tolerated by one generation eventually mixes into the general population and is no longer seen as diverse, so the next generation, likewise wishing to parade its awesome tolerance, is forced to import new diversity, which eventually also mixes into the general population; and so on and so on.
If the "diversity" is racially compatible, then the race may be preserved. But these days no one seriously regards racial compatibles as "diverse." No. Real diversity requires the Africanus. You can't pretend to be diverse unless you pack in the negroids.
Well, there's absolutely no way a European population can survive endless rounds of intermixture with negroids. It is a racial death sentence, pure and simple. So whether you take your African diversity in dribs and drabs or in big hits, the ultimate result is still racial oblivion.
I say this fact should be honestly confronted, rather than denied or obfuscated simply because it is uncomfortable to think about.Replies: @LatW
I don't necessarily agree that sharing or diversity are the road to a wealthy society. Maybe to some extent, early on. My reading of why wealth and wokeness are linked is that the rich use wokeness to control dissent and to preserve their position at the top. It is a useful distraction and divided societies tend not to be able to control their elites.
As V4 gets richer there will be the same dynamic: the local elites will go woke to keep what they have. An approval from Brussels is a bonus. It is already happening, Orban is an exception and even he has mellowed with time.Replies: @LatW
Oh, I don’t deny that. His behavior is completely unremarkable in the sense of being perfectly commonplace. He and Hack are the normal ones.
I am definitely the weirdo here, the odd duck, the rara avis… the fucking idiot, one might fairly say. I mean, why trouble my soul over another race’s dispossession and demise, particularly since my own presence per se is an agent of both?
Many a moon ago I put the same questions to myself but produced a very different set of answers to those I give today; answers that are familiar to most and, I am sure, strike you as intuitively right. My hands aren’t clean: the reason I have heard all the standard excuses for immigration and multiracialism a million times is because I have made them all a million times.
What really changed my mind was understanding that if WASPs go down, the rest of us are going down too; but if WASPs can somehow, even at this late date, miraculously survive, there’s a chance the rest of us can make it too. (Obviously this logic is peculiar to the anglosphere, it doesn’t quite apply the same way to Europe.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi6r3hZe5Tg.Replies: @Wokechoke
Все буде Україна. 😉
The Arestovych track is funny. He’s got a very laid back demeanor, and they called him the “national psychotherapist” or something. The guy who calms everyone down (that’s what this track must be about). Btw, he’s a former actor and has his own school for self-development. Half of his vlogs are about philosophy, psychology, etc. Might be worth looking into, given how much he predicted (there’s a video out there from 6 years ago where he predicts this war almost to a tee).
Btw, Dmitry called Vera Serdyuchka “Ukrainian traditional music” but it’s just good old Russian world estrada. I have nothing against him/her (them, lol) either, it’s just a joke. Btw, he took his banishment from Russia with great fortitude as well as humor.
Dmitry thought we should consider it serious Ukrainian music, he can be funny that way.
Here are some good Ukrainian tracks:
For working out (very popular called “Good afternoon, we’re from Ukraine.”)
A hit from a few weeks ago:
“A new word became known to their tsar – Bayraktar.”
Oh, and I want you to see this. It’s just too good. 🙂
Creativity on your part as Yanukovych hasn’t been a discussed factor at all. Once again noting that the positioned troop numbers don’t add up to a planned Russian takeover of Kiev.
He already had de facto control over the parts of Ukraine that had been sympathetic to Russia. The rest of those regions is now a genocided wasteland of rubble and Russian soldiers' limbs anyway.
And if he doesn't completely defeat the Kyiv government by taking Kyiv, they will be trying to take back their sovereign territory forever.
Even if there is a ceasefire, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military will just switch to insurgent tactics, whether their government decides on this course or not.
Furthermore, if the Kyiv government stays in power, they will join NATO, host foreign military bases and be extremely militarised. This was way off the table beforehand. Were it not, it would have happened years ago. So Putin is going backwards.
Unless of course, Putin uses the leverage gained from 2014 and now, in terms of land, to negotiate a peace deal which Ukraine agrees to. But then Putin has gotten nothing to show for his war except Ukraine agreeing to not join an organisation which they and been unable to even begin to start joining for 30 years!
So really, without taking Kyiv, the only point of invading Ukraine would be to murder a bunch of Ukrainians and ruin their lives. Or have the Russian military humiliated.
Nevermind that without taking Kyiv, and probably the totality of Ukraine, the war will only likely end with Russian withdrawal, because Ukraine will not agree to end the war otherwise.
This tortured position you Putinists have gotten yourself into is completely ludicrous. Please stop. You are now basically just saying that Putin invasion is little more than a punitive expedition because Ukrainiana decided they didn't want to be allied with Russia and which ensures that Ukrainians never will be allied with Russia. You are reducing the war to no more than an act of cruelty born of Russian patheticness.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Wokechoke
Whether this will boomerang depends on how invested Western structures will be in spreading the woke (it does cost money & time, you know, to push that agenda). Politicians themselves (Johnson, et al) do not care about this as much, their priority vis a vis EE is Russia (they care about those things at home more than in the EE). The West does care on the institutional level and typically it is these institutions that try to push it (embassies, liberal multinational NGOs, etc). However, the question is still to what extent can they influence the parliament (yes, to some extent but they cannot dominate it). These structures are annoying but they can be opposed to some extent. It is more difficult to deal with their local allies on the ground -- I believe this is where the real fight should happen (although one could also argue that if the mothership is taken out, these local collaborators will find themelves in a dire state which is true). These allies need to be shown that they will be marginalized or at least called out with rational arguments. My hope would be that they focus on helping Ukraine and thus get an outlet where they can signal their "moral superiority". That might take their attention away from non-Euro immigration, diversity, etc. This could actually be a great distraction - "Hey, animal rights people, take care of Ukrainian pets and leave our mink farms alone". LOL
What is most important though is whether E.Europeans want to live conservative and more spartan lives. Which many of them don't.
Another big question is whether the youth anywhere in Europe want to be WNs in large numbers or at least somewhat conservative. And how the youth will turn out when they start reaching their 30s and stabilize their political outlook & enter family life.
There is always the option to say "No". As in, yes, thanks for the weapons but we don't need your advice on "multiculturalism". The Western politicians right now care more about Russia than "the minority rights in the EE", they are way more invested to work on defending Ukraine than all these woke projects in the future (which largely require the local population to provide their human resources to implement all that stuff).
And to be frank... seeing some of these American WNs who will go out of their way to support Putin & even straight up endorse Ukrainian ethnocide (like Thorfinnsson did, thanks to him for his honesty though unlike all these other ones who let their rationalization hamster run all day) & close their eyes to the murder of the most vulnerable Ukrainians (like songbird did calling this a "gentle invasion" & ignoring the evidence of Russians triviliazing rape), sorry... only a few of them are on our side (Greg J, the likes of Rise Above, and some in the general public), makes me think that being a WN is just not such a great moral position (or even practical). Especially seeing that some minorities have been supportive of Ukraine. Ofc, the support from fellow whites is across the board (except Putinoids) but still... this makes one re-evaluate things. Maybe this narrow 19 century nationalism that you seem to look down on, really is the way to go. Or at least not all that bad.
P.S. Btw, I would be really glad if you didn't judge all the Baltic people by the tweets of the likes of President Ilves. I could write my opinion here about him but I won't criticize anything Estonian because it will be used against Estonia (although I consider him American). Suffice to say, he is a slightly eccentric guy who was raised in the West (went to Stanford and brings some arrogance along as some of the diaspora types do). His support for neoliberal / neocon politics is way higher than your typical Baltic politician, not to even mention general population.Replies: @LatW, @German_reader, @Mikel, @songbird, @Coconuts
I was going to write something about European Woke being like the Old Dope Peddler from the Tom Lehrer song, who is all about ‘doing well by doing good’ but this article just appeared, like a brief case study about the underpinnings of Wokeness in the UK, and the writer does it much better than me:
https://www.bing.com/search?q=unherd&cvid=a2b4a972f1724ed89d73436cd4aa7f9a&aqs=edge.0.0l9.3302j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=LCTS
This points to various things to watch out for. There is a book by Eric Zemmour, Le Suicide français which has related content but goes into more depth.
On the promotion of radical civic nationalism:
The overall legacy of the Third Way is Woke Capital and this:
One of the comments on that article is really good as well:
Pretty words, but they effectively add up to a “die slow” model.
The “diversity” tolerated by one generation eventually mixes into the general population and is no longer seen as diverse, so the next generation, likewise wishing to parade its awesome tolerance, is forced to import new diversity, which eventually also mixes into the general population; and so on and so on.
If the “diversity” is racially compatible, then the race may be preserved. But these days no one seriously regards racial compatibles as “diverse.” No. Real diversity requires the Africanus. You can’t pretend to be diverse unless you pack in the negroids.
Well, there’s absolutely no way a European population can survive endless rounds of intermixture with negroids. It is a racial death sentence, pure and simple. So whether you take your African diversity in dribs and drabs or in big hits, the ultimate result is still racial oblivion.
I say this fact should be honestly confronted, rather than denied or obfuscated simply because it is uncomfortable to think about.
From purely anecdotal evidence (myself) it seems possible, I remember when I was living in my grandparents’ old house for a while in an area that had become highly multicultural, the lack of any real sense of community was weirdly alienating, it was definitely not somewhere you would think of having or raising a family.
Like an extreme case of what De Tocqueville writes about here:
I was talking to someone (Polish but their children were born in the UK) who has a teenage daughter at school, and they mentioned the obvious impact of the new teaching about white privilege and racism. Decolonisation in education is supposed to involve an intensification of this, when you combine it with ambient anti-natal feminism and the pre-existing low fertility culture (German_reader was writing about it in his replies above), it wouldn’t be surprising to see further falls in TFR in the futures.
The part about different countries being in different situations I think is true; I noticed in Belarus an important reason for lower fertility in cities was low income and lack of living space, when for women my own age having 2 or 3 children was still a goal or aspiration. I recall being quite stunned when my wife told me not long after I got to know her that ‘having children is a duty to the Motherland’, and there was no irony intended.
My impression was that the East was more heavily invested in the idea of getting women into the workplace. And, yet, they almost collapse on the same line, before the East spikes up again (perhaps, due to cheap and subsidized daycare?), though still below replacement.
It seems obvious to me that rather than subsidize these very alien peoples, the West would probably have been better off, even if it focused pro-natalist subsidies on Eastern Europe, people who, though they are different, are much more closely related to us.Replies: @Coconuts
Therefore in Israel, they sings national songs about their desire for peace (e.g. "Shir lashalom"). You know you have entered the land without peace, when you see such slogans. Because Israel does not have peace for its existence, they sing slogans about peace. A man in the desert, dreams of water.I'm not going to be surprised, if politicians in India will be making slogans "hygiene and indoor toilets".
Russia uses Dugin’s playbook except they found out Japan’s right wing is too weak to stand up against the US and unlikely to achieve the level of success to dismember China, and they opportunistically curry Xi’s favor instead.
You’ve only scratched the surface as to describing my “political interests” if not my “lifestyle” too. And you’ve been able to do this, not because you really know that much about me (only the portions that I choose to reveal here at this blog), but because you’re really only describing that which effects all of humankind: we’re all the result of our upbringing and environment. When I was very young, I wanted to shed anything in my background that betrayed my Ukrainian heritage, and blend into the great white homogenized American identity that I could view daily on TV. As time went on, I began to look more closely at what really made up the American “nationality” and saw that it was really a mosaic of peoples that immigrated to the US, of all various ethnicities, creeds, races etc. This trend has only evolved over time. We’re not going back to an American world of white middle class sensibilities. So why do I need to totally shed my Ukrainian ethnic roots, anyway? For the entirety of my life, politically and culturally, my Ukrainian ethnicity has dovetailed quite nicely with my living in this wonderful melting pot. When I was a kid, I belonged to a Ukrainian dancing troupe. We were pretty good, and were able to secure nice contracts to entertain well known American businesses, at Christmas time and at other important company holidays: IBM, General Mills, Pillsbury, the Minnesota State Fair etc. Our mostly WASP sponsors applauded loudly at the end of our concerts, and helped to insitill a sense of pride in me about my Ukrainian ethnic background. So why do I need to adjust my attitudes and pride in being an Ukrainian-American to fulfill any American-firsters preconceived notions of how an American needs to talk, look like and think anyway?
I’m not saying that they were all dead. Dead – perhaps fewer than the Ukrainian claim. Injured, POWs (that kneecapping video to discourage surrenders), desertions (at least the South Ossetians travelled all the way back home), equipment breakdowns and medical problems. The last two being the biggest problems.
The commander attempting to beseige Mikolaeyev reported a 50% frostbite rate on an intercepted phone call. Trenchfoot is a problem in the Russian military. I know this directly. In 2012, I was asked by an “outdoor equipment” dealer in Taganarog to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots “like the British wore in the Falklands – we had trenchfoot problems but less than the Argentinians. Russian boots are still a bad design. Also until 2015 they used very traditional footwraps instead of socks. Some still use footwraps. The British Army stopped footwraps in 1915 because they encouraged trenchfoot – 75,000 British soldiers died of trenchfoot. Soldiers in the cold and wet should get a change of thick woollen socks a day (In WW1 knitting socks for soldiers was the duty of all young women). Russian soldiers actually get one pair of thin acrylics a campaign, the difference being pocketed. Frostbite below freezing, trenchfoot above. I’d bet on typhus in the Russian army too given their lack of preparedness for life in the open.
Dig around and you will find, probably in Russian, a few stories about him being moved near to Ukraine in the days before the invasion. Belogorod I seem to recall but it could have been Rostov.
Well, it sure looked like you did:
Maybe it’s actually your memory that is lacking, not my reading comprehension skills? 🙂
Interesting, so the Japanese right isn’t rabidly pro-American anymore?
Geraldina showing some signs of stress contemplating his future prospects of unemployment and becoming a subsistence farmer in the countryside? Look at the upside, your soft hands will become hardened by good honest work and strong lungs will develop from a lot of fresh air being breathed in while being in the outdoors a lot.Replies: @Gerard1234
LMAO you retarded sack of faeces. 404 is the one that is being wiped off the map and doomed to be an economic sewer, gangster blackhole, STD ravaged- unless it reunites with Russian world.
You would think a dumbfuck as you would at least have the brain to realise how embarrassing that even with total sanctions war placed on it, Russia’s GDP loss for this year is predicted to be far LESS than Banderastan’s in 2014!!!
The Kremlin (well there are several in Russia you dipshit, but let us say you are talking about the Russian government in Moscow, or whoever was sitting in it) was not the power decision-maker for 220 out of the last 320 years you literal f*ckwit…… because Saint Petersburg was the centre of power, idiot……. the same Saint Petersburg that was the sole founder, creater of…… Ukrainian “nationalism”!!! Nothing says “fake nation” more than having the national “consciousness” and fake ideology created in the so-called “aggressor state” , for a country that only exists because of Stalin and Lenin
I have a (good size and cosy) dacha already you retard…. with several shovels – the shovels aren’t a thing to boast about of course – except that the average ukrop will probably be willing to transplant their kidney to me should I need it – just so they can get their hands on one of these shovels
Farming is a very noble work, but how dumb is a POS like you to claim I will be doing this, when you know that as a Civil Engineer I will be making huge money from working on projects in Ukraine – primarily in rebuilding all the bridges that ukronazis have blownup. LOL – I will be a true war profiteer!!
Interesting of course that you dont show any actual concern for the ukroscum getting slaughtered
If Putin didn’t plan to turn Ukraine into a Belarus, what the point of any of this?
He already had de facto control over the parts of Ukraine that had been sympathetic to Russia. The rest of those regions is now a genocided wasteland of rubble and Russian soldiers’ limbs anyway.
And if he doesn’t completely defeat the Kyiv government by taking Kyiv, they will be trying to take back their sovereign territory forever.
Even if there is a ceasefire, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military will just switch to insurgent tactics, whether their government decides on this course or not.
Furthermore, if the Kyiv government stays in power, they will join NATO, host foreign military bases and be extremely militarised. This was way off the table beforehand. Were it not, it would have happened years ago. So Putin is going backwards.
Unless of course, Putin uses the leverage gained from 2014 and now, in terms of land, to negotiate a peace deal which Ukraine agrees to. But then Putin has gotten nothing to show for his war except Ukraine agreeing to not join an organisation which they and been unable to even begin to start joining for 30 years!
So really, without taking Kyiv, the only point of invading Ukraine would be to murder a bunch of Ukrainians and ruin their lives. Or have the Russian military humiliated.
Nevermind that without taking Kyiv, and probably the totality of Ukraine, the war will only likely end with Russian withdrawal, because Ukraine will not agree to end the war otherwise.
This tortured position you Putinists have gotten yourself into is completely ludicrous. Please stop. You are now basically just saying that Putin invasion is little more than a punitive expedition because Ukrainiana decided they didn’t want to be allied with Russia and which ensures that Ukrainians never will be allied with Russia. You are reducing the war to no more than an act of cruelty born of Russian patheticness.
You're on par with the svidos as dead Ukrainians are the greater reality. There's the matter of the Kiev regime military buildup by the Donbass rebels, coupled by the regime's stonewalling of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol. In addition, NATO is an anti-Russian military organization which has had some of its key members assisting the Kiev regime's military strength, along with the neo-Nazi factor in Ukraine.
Upon the Soviet breakup, Russia exhibited content with a neutral Ukraine. Pushing the latter in another direction is what prompted what Russia has done since 2014.
This has clearly become a parasitic proxy war. The longer it goes, the less better it is for the Kiev regime.
And now? nevermind, don't take it seriously, it is not going to happen for "30 years". And in the next sentence: the rump Ukraine will be a militarized state in Nato fighting Russia forever.
You are unable to think straight; the above simply cannot be reconciled as being consistent. But at least you stopped claiming that Kiev is "winning".
You called this a "gentle invasion", it's not (if such a thing is possible even, maybe the Nazi invasion of Norway), it's one of the worst in recent history by European standards. It seems that your real bias is hidden behind pacifism. Otherwise, I would respect your position, wars should be avoided in this day and age. Not at all. The losses are so severe that it breaks my heart every day (yesterday the Moscovites killed a 3 month old female child, with her mother and grandmother, in Odessa). A friend of mine wanted to go there, I was very scared of that possibility.
But there are men who have said that they are ready to die standing for their country and I listen to those men (and even women) because without such there would no countries. They are defending their only home. No, I'm saying that you're willfully obtuse. No, not at all, some nationalists are very refined. I just don't understand why we have to die / disappear for your abstract goals to be met. Wouldn't it be better for American Putinoids to just focus more on themselves? As in, try to work with your own population to meet your goals.
But if you simply oppose arms shipments & the lend-lease, then I understand your position. If you simply had that position without making all the justifications for the Russian cruelty, then I would respect your position. And I respect your position that NATO should be used to help against mass immigration (or rather border breaches).Replies: @songbird
Not that I approve of it precisely, (such characterization isn’t an approval) but I would say “Iceland”, as the paragon. (not that I am comparing this invasion to Iceland)
I might add that my characterization was based on a path of de-escalation. Obviously, further escalation, such as you appear to be advocating, leads to more deviation from the initial potentialities of a low number of civilian casualties.
If I thought they would listen to me, perhaps I would. But it wouldn’t be consistent for me to advocate de-escalation on the Russian side, while advocating increasing intervention on the other side.
This option wasn’t presented to them, which really highlights the ugly side of the support that Ukraine is receiving – it leads to no compromises.
When the invasion started, Russia should have immediately been offered a small set of concessions. Neutrality of Ukraine, recognition of Crimea (not even a real part of Ukraine) with water rights and the separatist republics (only 6% of Ukraine’s land and really populated largely by Russians), lifting of sanctions. Perhaps, Putin would not have stopped there – but we will never know, though it would have been very cheap to find out. (And perhaps, would have cost nothing at all, if the offer had been turned down.)
I’m not the one tacitly comparing it to the Mongols, the Nazis on the Eastern Front, the Soviets, or even the Allied fire- and atomic bombings, and this is what you are doing when you say “total warfare.”
Do you realize that 120,000-200,000 Japanese perished in the course of one night, in Tokyo, during WW2? You know what? If this was “total warfare” (using every tool available for maximum destruction), then Kiev and Lviv would have already gone up in mushroom clouds.
It strikes me that one obvious way to debunk your characterization of it as “total warfare” is to note that the Russian state has not geared up its economy to a life or death struggle. It has not done a general draft, one can still buy many consumer products at the supermarket. Russia still has nukes.
I don’t even understand what you are saying here. If you are talking about Balts, well, Stalin didn’t make you disappear. Do you think Putin is worse?
With more sense, I would flip it back on you: why do Ukrainians have to die, for your abstract goals to be met? Maybe, just, maybe, the conflict has zero impact on you, and for the cost of the paranoia and hang-ups of EEs, outside of Ukraine, a lot of people inside of Ukraine are dying.
Balts are part of NATO. Frankly, no offense, but I think it was one of the dumbest ideas of all history to let them join. (Pure liability and pure insult to Russians, zero defensive value.) Even Hitler, one of the kings of bad ideas, realized it was a bad idea, to demand the Balts.
But I would have clear communication with Putin. Make him understand that we will be supporting our formal allies, not retreating forever.
BTW, I consider “Putinoid” another silly characterization of me. For one, I don’t believe in cults of personality. But, anyway, if we are to sort along 2D groupings, I suppose that would make you a “Zelenskyite.” And perhaps that would be a logical characterization, as you’ve said he is a “good businessman.” Is that in the same sense as Hunter Biden? Anyway, that is more of an endorsement than I have ever given Trump, Xi, or Putin.
The Russian bombings will not stop until Russia is forced to sue for peace (Putin told his generals that if they can't take Ukraine, then to raze it to the ground). There are still a few weeks until the heavy weapons shipments arrive fully.
Neither side is listening to the posters here, we're talking to each other. It's a display of opinion not real life affairs. Your view would be a more balanced and genuine pacifism had you advocated for Russia to de-escalate too, but you were dead silent about it (or worse, making excuses). So the whole world sees that Russia is the aggressor and you don't. This is not for you or for the US to decide. This is for Denis and Andriy in the Ukrainian military to decide. And if what you propose had been done in history (immediate capitulation), there would be no countries. Countries are peoples' only homes that they can't lose (not sure you understand this, it's the same as you losing your country to multiculturalists, just in a more brutal way). Total war, I meant from Ukraine's side. And the reason Russia hasn't done the draft is because it is very unpopular. Recruitment centers in Russia have been catching fire lately. They're their goals, too. They reached out and asked for help. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about and how far you are from the truth. No, people are dying from the Russian bombings and Russians shooting them. There is also rape and torture. And, no, this is not about "hangups" as you say, we were ready to move on, it is the Moscovite side that wants to go back. We said we don't want it in 1991. They don't seem to get it. Tell that to the Scots Irish gentlemen who arrived as early as 1994 (!!) with Partnership for Peace. As to the insult to the Russians, while it might be there, it's not that big -- the biggest insult for them was that we gave up bilingualism and didn't acknowledge the WW2 victory as victory. But despite that the relations were quite ok, the trade grew a lot, the trade with Russia was highest ever in history right before Covid and before the invasion. Some of their companies and specialists were working at the Baltic ports, they started importing more varied product. Tourism was doing well. Things were looking up despite the geopolitics. There were never any issues with Kaliningrad for 30 years.
There is definitely value to the Baltics being in NATO, because the Baltic ports are the closest unfreezing ports to the Arctic, and the US gets to have transparency over the financial flows (closely connected with Scandinavia and even Germany and through there connected to New York, and the US thus gets to control the financial flows from the East). Anyway... even if the US wasn't there, we would still have a chance to work with the British. As well as Poland and Ukraine. And I support increasing the armed forces, it might actually suffice seeing how things are going. I support Ukrainian nationalists and the people, not liberals, but I have nothing against Zelensky, he has done well given the circumstances. My mom adores him. But when I hear all those Putin chants in far right American meetings, I don't want to have anything in common. If one third of the Republican party becomes like Marjorie Taylor Green in 10 or so years (when boomers leave), then bye bye for good.Replies: @songbird, @Wokechoke
If I am talking about the range of topics you restrict – focus, confine – your political interests to, I really struggle to see how a native English speaker could equate that to claiming you lead a “restrictive lifestyle,” which to most people would suggest a life of self-denial – something I’m certainly not accusing you of.
It is interesting to see East and West Germany contrasted.
My impression was that the East was more heavily invested in the idea of getting women into the workplace. And, yet, they almost collapse on the same line, before the East spikes up again (perhaps, due to cheap and subsidized daycare?), though still below replacement.
It seems obvious to me that rather than subsidize these very alien peoples, the West would probably have been better off, even if it focused pro-natalist subsidies on Eastern Europe, people who, though they are different, are much more closely related to us.
He already had de facto control over the parts of Ukraine that had been sympathetic to Russia. The rest of those regions is now a genocided wasteland of rubble and Russian soldiers' limbs anyway.
And if he doesn't completely defeat the Kyiv government by taking Kyiv, they will be trying to take back their sovereign territory forever.
Even if there is a ceasefire, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military will just switch to insurgent tactics, whether their government decides on this course or not.
Furthermore, if the Kyiv government stays in power, they will join NATO, host foreign military bases and be extremely militarised. This was way off the table beforehand. Were it not, it would have happened years ago. So Putin is going backwards.
Unless of course, Putin uses the leverage gained from 2014 and now, in terms of land, to negotiate a peace deal which Ukraine agrees to. But then Putin has gotten nothing to show for his war except Ukraine agreeing to not join an organisation which they and been unable to even begin to start joining for 30 years!
So really, without taking Kyiv, the only point of invading Ukraine would be to murder a bunch of Ukrainians and ruin their lives. Or have the Russian military humiliated.
Nevermind that without taking Kyiv, and probably the totality of Ukraine, the war will only likely end with Russian withdrawal, because Ukraine will not agree to end the war otherwise.
This tortured position you Putinists have gotten yourself into is completely ludicrous. Please stop. You are now basically just saying that Putin invasion is little more than a punitive expedition because Ukrainiana decided they didn't want to be allied with Russia and which ensures that Ukrainians never will be allied with Russia. You are reducing the war to no more than an act of cruelty born of Russian patheticness.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Wokechoke
Putin doesn’t control Belarus as evidenced by how the former’s government has frequently gone against him.
You’re on par with the svidos as dead Ukrainians are the greater reality. There’s the matter of the Kiev regime military buildup by the Donbass rebels, coupled by the regime’s stonewalling of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol. In addition, NATO is an anti-Russian military organization which has had some of its key members assisting the Kiev regime’s military strength, along with the neo-Nazi factor in Ukraine.
Upon the Soviet breakup, Russia exhibited content with a neutral Ukraine. Pushing the latter in another direction is what prompted what Russia has done since 2014.
This has clearly become a parasitic proxy war. The longer it goes, the less better it is for the Kiev regime.
He already had de facto control over the parts of Ukraine that had been sympathetic to Russia. The rest of those regions is now a genocided wasteland of rubble and Russian soldiers' limbs anyway.
And if he doesn't completely defeat the Kyiv government by taking Kyiv, they will be trying to take back their sovereign territory forever.
Even if there is a ceasefire, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military will just switch to insurgent tactics, whether their government decides on this course or not.
Furthermore, if the Kyiv government stays in power, they will join NATO, host foreign military bases and be extremely militarised. This was way off the table beforehand. Were it not, it would have happened years ago. So Putin is going backwards.
Unless of course, Putin uses the leverage gained from 2014 and now, in terms of land, to negotiate a peace deal which Ukraine agrees to. But then Putin has gotten nothing to show for his war except Ukraine agreeing to not join an organisation which they and been unable to even begin to start joining for 30 years!
So really, without taking Kyiv, the only point of invading Ukraine would be to murder a bunch of Ukrainians and ruin their lives. Or have the Russian military humiliated.
Nevermind that without taking Kyiv, and probably the totality of Ukraine, the war will only likely end with Russian withdrawal, because Ukraine will not agree to end the war otherwise.
This tortured position you Putinists have gotten yourself into is completely ludicrous. Please stop. You are now basically just saying that Putin invasion is little more than a punitive expedition because Ukrainiana decided they didn't want to be allied with Russia and which ensures that Ukrainians never will be allied with Russia. You are reducing the war to no more than an act of cruelty born of Russian patheticness.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Wokechoke
It is interesting how the story has changed: until the war Kiev and Nato on the highest level repeated that Ukraine will join Nato and has a right to do it. It is in the Ukrainian constitution and in every Nato statement starting in 2008. What was that all about?
And now? nevermind, don’t take it seriously, it is not going to happen for “30 years”. And in the next sentence: the rump Ukraine will be a militarized state in Nato fighting Russia forever.
You are unable to think straight; the above simply cannot be reconciled as being consistent. But at least you stopped claiming that Kiev is “winning”.
Visegrad was in a better spot in 2019 than today, but it still the best option available in Europe.
I don’t necessarily agree that sharing or diversity are the road to a wealthy society. Maybe to some extent, early on. My reading of why wealth and wokeness are linked is that the rich use wokeness to control dissent and to preserve their position at the top. It is a useful distraction and divided societies tend not to be able to control their elites.
As V4 gets richer there will be the same dynamic: the local elites will go woke to keep what they have. An approval from Brussels is a bonus. It is already happening, Orban is an exception and even he has mellowed with time.
The "diversity" tolerated by one generation eventually mixes into the general population and is no longer seen as diverse, so the next generation, likewise wishing to parade its awesome tolerance, is forced to import new diversity, which eventually also mixes into the general population; and so on and so on.
If the "diversity" is racially compatible, then the race may be preserved. But these days no one seriously regards racial compatibles as "diverse." No. Real diversity requires the Africanus. You can't pretend to be diverse unless you pack in the negroids.
Well, there's absolutely no way a European population can survive endless rounds of intermixture with negroids. It is a racial death sentence, pure and simple. So whether you take your African diversity in dribs and drabs or in big hits, the ultimate result is still racial oblivion.
I say this fact should be honestly confronted, rather than denied or obfuscated simply because it is uncomfortable to think about.Replies: @LatW
I wasn’t talking about the kind of diversity you describe above (non-European). I meant something like a gay hairdresser and maybe some outsourcing of Asian data scientists… or female snipers who already exist in Ukraine.
I might add that my characterization was based on a path of de-escalation. Obviously, further escalation, such as you appear to be advocating, leads to more deviation from the initial potentialities of a low number of civilian casualties. If I thought they would listen to me, perhaps I would. But it wouldn't be consistent for me to advocate de-escalation on the Russian side, while advocating increasing intervention on the other side. This option wasn't presented to them, which really highlights the ugly side of the support that Ukraine is receiving - it leads to no compromises.
When the invasion started, Russia should have immediately been offered a small set of concessions. Neutrality of Ukraine, recognition of Crimea (not even a real part of Ukraine) with water rights and the separatist republics (only 6% of Ukraine's land and really populated largely by Russians), lifting of sanctions. Perhaps, Putin would not have stopped there - but we will never know, though it would have been very cheap to find out. (And perhaps, would have cost nothing at all, if the offer had been turned down.) I'm not the one tacitly comparing it to the Mongols, the Nazis on the Eastern Front, the Soviets, or even the Allied fire- and atomic bombings, and this is what you are doing when you say "total warfare."
Do you realize that 120,000-200,000 Japanese perished in the course of one night, in Tokyo, during WW2? You know what? If this was "total warfare" (using every tool available for maximum destruction), then Kiev and Lviv would have already gone up in mushroom clouds.
It strikes me that one obvious way to debunk your characterization of it as "total warfare" is to note that the Russian state has not geared up its economy to a life or death struggle. It has not done a general draft, one can still buy many consumer products at the supermarket. Russia still has nukes. I don't even understand what you are saying here. If you are talking about Balts, well, Stalin didn't make you disappear. Do you think Putin is worse?
With more sense, I would flip it back on you: why do Ukrainians have to die, for your abstract goals to be met? Maybe, just, maybe, the conflict has zero impact on you, and for the cost of the paranoia and hang-ups of EEs, outside of Ukraine, a lot of people inside of Ukraine are dying.
Balts are part of NATO. Frankly, no offense, but I think it was one of the dumbest ideas of all history to let them join. (Pure liability and pure insult to Russians, zero defensive value.) Even Hitler, one of the kings of bad ideas, realized it was a bad idea, to demand the Balts.
But I would have clear communication with Putin. Make him understand that we will be supporting our formal allies, not retreating forever.
BTW, I consider "Putinoid" another silly characterization of me. For one, I don't believe in cults of personality. But, anyway, if we are to sort along 2D groupings, I suppose that would make you a "Zelenskyite." And perhaps that would be a logical characterization, as you've said he is a "good businessman." Is that in the same sense as Hunter Biden? Anyway, that is more of an endorsement than I have ever given Trump, Xi, or Putin.Replies: @LatW
I supported de-escalation during the period when Putin was issuing his ultimatum to the West. Ukraine should’ve been prepared then, and the West should’ve tried to de-escalate at that point (which Macron did many times but was given very undiplomatic treatment, they didn’t even escort him from the plane). Right now, Ukraine should push forward as much as possible. Again, it’s not me talking here, but all the Ukrainians who are lining up at the national guard. We have given 1/3 of our military budget to them + volunteer help.
The Russian bombings will not stop until Russia is forced to sue for peace (Putin told his generals that if they can’t take Ukraine, then to raze it to the ground). There are still a few weeks until the heavy weapons shipments arrive fully.
Neither side is listening to the posters here, we’re talking to each other. It’s a display of opinion not real life affairs. Your view would be a more balanced and genuine pacifism had you advocated for Russia to de-escalate too, but you were dead silent about it (or worse, making excuses). So the whole world sees that Russia is the aggressor and you don’t.
This is not for you or for the US to decide. This is for Denis and Andriy in the Ukrainian military to decide. And if what you propose had been done in history (immediate capitulation), there would be no countries. Countries are peoples’ only homes that they can’t lose (not sure you understand this, it’s the same as you losing your country to multiculturalists, just in a more brutal way).
Total war, I meant from Ukraine’s side. And the reason Russia hasn’t done the draft is because it is very unpopular. Recruitment centers in Russia have been catching fire lately.
They’re their goals, too. They reached out and asked for help.
You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about and how far you are from the truth.
No, people are dying from the Russian bombings and Russians shooting them. There is also rape and torture. And, no, this is not about “hangups” as you say, we were ready to move on, it is the Moscovite side that wants to go back. We said we don’t want it in 1991. They don’t seem to get it.
Tell that to the Scots Irish gentlemen who arrived as early as 1994 (!!) with Partnership for Peace. As to the insult to the Russians, while it might be there, it’s not that big — the biggest insult for them was that we gave up bilingualism and didn’t acknowledge the WW2 victory as victory. But despite that the relations were quite ok, the trade grew a lot, the trade with Russia was highest ever in history right before Covid and before the invasion. Some of their companies and specialists were working at the Baltic ports, they started importing more varied product. Tourism was doing well. Things were looking up despite the geopolitics. There were never any issues with Kaliningrad for 30 years.
There is definitely value to the Baltics being in NATO, because the Baltic ports are the closest unfreezing ports to the Arctic, and the US gets to have transparency over the financial flows (closely connected with Scandinavia and even Germany and through there connected to New York, and the US thus gets to control the financial flows from the East). Anyway… even if the US wasn’t there, we would still have a chance to work with the British. As well as Poland and Ukraine. And I support increasing the armed forces, it might actually suffice seeing how things are going.
I support Ukrainian nationalists and the people, not liberals, but I have nothing against Zelensky, he has done well given the circumstances. My mom adores him. But when I hear all those Putin chants in far right American meetings, I don’t want to have anything in common. If one third of the Republican party becomes like Marjorie Taylor Green in 10 or so years (when boomers leave), then bye bye for good.
Ukraine might as well be wiped off the map now anyway.Replies: @LatW
I don't necessarily agree that sharing or diversity are the road to a wealthy society. Maybe to some extent, early on. My reading of why wealth and wokeness are linked is that the rich use wokeness to control dissent and to preserve their position at the top. It is a useful distraction and divided societies tend not to be able to control their elites.
As V4 gets richer there will be the same dynamic: the local elites will go woke to keep what they have. An approval from Brussels is a bonus. It is already happening, Orban is an exception and even he has mellowed with time.Replies: @LatW
Yes, 2019 was a fantastic moment. Everything was bursting with life, businesses had it so good. Paradise on earth.
Good option, but I’m more interested in Ukraine now, more military prowess – I hope they don’t bleed out too much, broader intellectual outlook of some intellectuals in Kyiv, European ancestral homeland so it might have a symbolic meaning. Anyway, there is also the option of strengthening nation states.
I meant the other way around, once a society becomes wealthy they are more inclined to share and that leads to diversity.
Yes, it’s been happening for several years now. Does it correspond with the economic growth up to 2019? That’s where the danger is. You have to catch is somewhere there. But you can’t control a free society.
The Russian bombings will not stop until Russia is forced to sue for peace (Putin told his generals that if they can't take Ukraine, then to raze it to the ground). There are still a few weeks until the heavy weapons shipments arrive fully.
Neither side is listening to the posters here, we're talking to each other. It's a display of opinion not real life affairs. Your view would be a more balanced and genuine pacifism had you advocated for Russia to de-escalate too, but you were dead silent about it (or worse, making excuses). So the whole world sees that Russia is the aggressor and you don't. This is not for you or for the US to decide. This is for Denis and Andriy in the Ukrainian military to decide. And if what you propose had been done in history (immediate capitulation), there would be no countries. Countries are peoples' only homes that they can't lose (not sure you understand this, it's the same as you losing your country to multiculturalists, just in a more brutal way). Total war, I meant from Ukraine's side. And the reason Russia hasn't done the draft is because it is very unpopular. Recruitment centers in Russia have been catching fire lately. They're their goals, too. They reached out and asked for help. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about and how far you are from the truth. No, people are dying from the Russian bombings and Russians shooting them. There is also rape and torture. And, no, this is not about "hangups" as you say, we were ready to move on, it is the Moscovite side that wants to go back. We said we don't want it in 1991. They don't seem to get it. Tell that to the Scots Irish gentlemen who arrived as early as 1994 (!!) with Partnership for Peace. As to the insult to the Russians, while it might be there, it's not that big -- the biggest insult for them was that we gave up bilingualism and didn't acknowledge the WW2 victory as victory. But despite that the relations were quite ok, the trade grew a lot, the trade with Russia was highest ever in history right before Covid and before the invasion. Some of their companies and specialists were working at the Baltic ports, they started importing more varied product. Tourism was doing well. Things were looking up despite the geopolitics. There were never any issues with Kaliningrad for 30 years.
There is definitely value to the Baltics being in NATO, because the Baltic ports are the closest unfreezing ports to the Arctic, and the US gets to have transparency over the financial flows (closely connected with Scandinavia and even Germany and through there connected to New York, and the US thus gets to control the financial flows from the East). Anyway... even if the US wasn't there, we would still have a chance to work with the British. As well as Poland and Ukraine. And I support increasing the armed forces, it might actually suffice seeing how things are going. I support Ukrainian nationalists and the people, not liberals, but I have nothing against Zelensky, he has done well given the circumstances. My mom adores him. But when I hear all those Putin chants in far right American meetings, I don't want to have anything in common. If one third of the Republican party becomes like Marjorie Taylor Green in 10 or so years (when boomers leave), then bye bye for good.Replies: @songbird, @Wokechoke
We don’t know what Macron said, but it seems doubtful that it was anything significant.
Negotiation and limited concessions is not the same as total capitulation. The inability of narrow-minded elites to see this has led to countless disasters, in which millions of people have died, and priceless treasures been destroyed.
Was Germany better off during WWI, by not offering status quo ante, early on, in the conflict? Was Poland really better off, being encouraged not to allow any concessions to Germany, during WW2? Was the UK better off shrugging off peace offers from Germany? (One need only to look at it now, it would be hard to imagine something worse). Wouldn’t it have been better, if the US had specifically told the Japanese, “You can keep Manchuria” rather than being obscure about it? (Maybe, it wouldn’t have mattered, but we will never know.) Though, they might have said, “You can keep Emperor” later.
I don’t blame the Balts, so much as American leadership. The Balts see it as a benefit to them. But who can honestly see it as a benefit to America?
This may be useful, if one wants to invade Russia, and trigger nuclear armageddon, but I don’t because I believe in nuclear deterrence.
This is not some maximization of self-determination. If it were, the breakaway republics would have been peacefully let go. Ukraine’s army is not an all-volunteer corps. The draft is in effect, and many thousands of people who don’t endorse the conflict are being forced to fight in it.
It would be, if Kiev and Lviv had been burned to cinders right now. Or if 22,000 Ukrainian officers had been shot in the back of the head, after surrendering. Or it food supplies had been systematically eliminated.
Never heard any, but, then again, it is not really my scene.
The future of everything is dumber. And if you think MTG is bad, you should listen to the black caucus. America is locked into this system. What is shocking to me is the amount of short-sightedness coming out of EE politicians, since it is not locked into this system – yet. Not a lot of strategic thinking apparent, no attempt to encourage Western Europe to hit the brakes. No semi-assertive identity, outside of Hungary.
Thankfully that's not the case yet, but it could happen in certain pockets. There was some info today about the Moscovite forces planning to take the grain from the occupied areas in Southern Ukraine. But that's exactly the problem because neither of those seem all that appealing. Where is the reasonable middle? I don't even object to MTG, she's just that type, she's not an outright Putinoid (it's some of the Nick F's people who are), it's a small number of politicians, who may not be that significant. They were only 10 against 400 something in the House Lend-Lease vote today. Support to Ukraine is basically unanimous. It's good to have "assertive identity", but one has to also be successful on the practical level. Hungary is lionized by the American far-right but their successes are not even all that (they managed to raise their TFR a little, but the Baltics had already done that, too, so how are they better vis a vis their own people?). Also, I wouldn't say that, for instance, Poland doesn't have an assertive identity. Just because it's got tinges you don't like, doesn't mean it's not assertive.And, btw, nobody owes anything to anybody, except their own people. But I do accept your position, actually. Regarding Ukraine in particular, this has become way bigger than expected. The assistance package is unprecedented (well, except maybe Israel or WW2 days). The House approved the Lend-Lease today and that's a very serious thing. It essentially means that not only the US is providing the weapons, namely, building up & maintaining Ukraine's defense capabilities (something that a country normally should do on its own, although this is not an ordinary situation and Ukraine deserves help), but this also could mean that the US will open up production lines to produce any kind of weaponry that Ukraine could request which is a very big deal. Of course, it depends on what will be negotiated. And the majority of the American people support this.
The Ukrainian case against Hillary:
http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/whos-truly-beholden-to-the-kremlin/
Let’s cut through the hysteria and examine the facts.
Long before Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump exchanged compliments, Bill Clinton received a phone call from Mr. Putin in 2010 thanking him personally for delivering a speech for $500,000, paid by a Russian investment bank that was promoting shares in a company that controlled 20 percent of America’s supply of uranium, a critical component in nuclear weapons.
The State Department, led by Hillary Clinton, signed off on the deal just two months after her husband’s speech, enabling the Russian state nuclear agency to not only acquire 20 percent of America’s uranium but also own the land in which the deposits are located.
She was also secretary of state when $145 million in donations reached the Clinton Foundation from the shareholders of the company that sold America’s uranium.
Yet that wasn’t the only money the Clintons raised from the Russians that resulted in the exchange for sensitive materials.
Out of 28 American, European and Russian companies that participated in the transfer of classified technology to the Skolkovo technology park outside of Moscow, 17 were Clinton Foundation donors or paid for speeches by Mr. Clinton.
By 2014, when Russia was invading Ukraine, the FBI issued “an extraordinary warning” to several technology companies involved with Skolkovo. The true motives of the Russians is to gain access to classified, sensitive and emerging technology from the companies, an FBI agent warned.
John Podesta, the chairman of the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, sat on the executive board, alongside key Russian officials, of an energy company that received the FBI’s warning. That didn’t stop him from accepting $35 million from a Putin-connected government fund.
E-mails released by Wikileaks showed that Mr. Podesta continued to be involved in the company in 2015, even after the Russian invasion and after claiming to be divested. Furthermore, Mr. Podesta is reported to have received $5.25 million for his think tank, Center for American Progress, through a secretive chain of entities that could lead to Russian oligarchs, among them Ruben Vardanyan, who sat on the energy company board, according to the Government Accountability Institute.
Hillary Clinton supporters erupted in outrage when Mr. Trump hired Paul Manafort to help run his campaign. (Is it not a positive signal that Mr. Trump dumped him after such criticism?) But their silence was deafening when it was revealed in late August that Mr. Manafort hired the Podesta Group to lobby on behalf of Viktor Yanukovych’s allies in the Party of Regions.
The Podesta Group lobbied until 2014 to downplay the need for a congressional resolution to pressure Mr. Yanukovych to release Yulia Tymoshenko from prison, the Associated Press reported. Moreover, it failed to file the proper paperwork, making the lobbying illegal.
Clinton supporters also drummed up hysteria about Mr. Trump being too busy to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
Yet that pales in comparison to the very same Mr. Podesta – having already taken millions as part of sensitive technology transfers – reacting with disinterest (as revealed by Wikileaks) to Victor Pinchuk’s pleas to get Mr. Clinton and a group of Western leaders to voice support for Ukraine as the Russian military aggression peaked in the winter of 2015.
Now the FBI has confirmed this week that its investigations of Mr. Trump, launched in the summer, have uncovered no ties to the Kremlin. Nothing. Nichoho. Zero.
Voters should consider that the Clintons and Mr. Podesta have far more questionable ties to the Kremlin, possibly criminal, than Mr. Trump and his entourage.Replies: @Dmitry
Of course Trump was not, and you know this. Just look at the situation of Ukraine’s military equipment.
You would expect if John McCain has been US president in 2014 or Marco Rubio becomes president in 2016, then Ukraine might have just anything like Patriot missiles, F-16, F-15, M1A2 tanks, Bradley IFV. It’s not even like F-16v or M1A2 SEPv3, or F-35.
Afterall, if American politicians are serious, they would at least give old F-16s. Just look at Egypt.
Israel received its F-15s in Tel Nof Air Force Base in December 1976 and US air force receiving its first F-15s in January 1976. There is less than 12 months of waiting for Israel for the world’s most advanced plane. US air force was less than a year before the Israeli air force.
Meanwhile, it is 46 years later, and Ukraine, could not have F-15s. Just F-15s, might have been enough to create balance of power to prevent the invasion.
Ukraine was not allowed advanced technology, except a couple hundred anti-tank missiles Javelin (which Trump delayed https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-resisted-ukraine-sale-javelin-antitank-missile).
Ukraine was not even trained to use 155mm munition. They are training the first 50 Ukrainians to use 155mm systems last week.
This is one reason Ukraine was impossible for Putin to resist invading, although such plan also required internal delusions that the Russian military has more modern technology than the 1980s. But if Ukraine had things like F-16 and Abrams tanks, even people who believe local propaganda would not have invaded.
Trump cult is more exciting than “Ukrainian first”. McCain or Rubio would be the same as Trump, and therefore not give weapons to Ukraine? Zhirinovsky was not only a clown when he was happy Trump displaces the other candidate. Just as there could be a probability neoconservative Marco Rubio would have given set of F-16s with targeting pods to Ukraine, which would have made the plan to invade seem much more impossible.
I don’t think Skolkovo can transfer much of technology. If it does. then I would have to apologize for earlier thoughts about there. As Surkov described it, its main reason for existence was more to cut from the budget for its heads and build “modern looking” buildings with vast funding to the construction industry, which is a typical cover for “technology project” in the Russian Federation.
This is a Soviet slogan that was re-released in the 1980s. It’s not cause of high fertility, but result of the below replacement fertility and panic of Soviet authorities.
Because it was low fertility culture (the slavic population in the USSR in the second half of the 20th century, after the urbanization and with permanent demographic losses of war, resulting in wave pattern in the population pyramid), there is the response of panicked slogan designs. The USSR gives competition of prizes, to women who have more than 2 children, calling them something exciting like “heroines for the motherland” (can’t remember exact phrases).
It continues with similar rhetoric in the Russian Federation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45P2_WAA_2M. More you hear this, more you know you entered the low fertility culture, that was produced by the industrialization process.
It’s the same way that the slogan if you read the flag of Brazil, is “Order and Progress”. Because there is lack of order and progress in Brazil, Brazilian authorities talking about their desire for order and progress, which results in the national slogan. If you read such a slogan, you know you entered a country with a lack of this thing.
The discovery of such slogan, is the indicator of the lack of the things which they indicate.
Therefore in Israel, they sings national songs about their desire for peace (e.g. “Shir lashalom”). You know you have entered the land without peace, when you see such slogans. Because Israel does not have peace for its existence, they sing slogans about peace. A man in the desert, dreams of water.
I’m not going to be surprised, if politicians in India will be making slogans “hygiene and indoor toilets”.
I am definitely the weirdo here, the odd duck, the rara avis... the fucking idiot, one might fairly say. I mean, why trouble my soul over another race's dispossession and demise, particularly since my own presence per se is an agent of both?
Many a moon ago I put the same questions to myself but produced a very different set of answers to those I give today; answers that are familiar to most and, I am sure, strike you as intuitively right. My hands aren't clean: the reason I have heard all the standard excuses for immigration and multiracialism a million times is because I have made them all a million times.
What really changed my mind was understanding that if WASPs go down, the rest of us are going down too; but if WASPs can somehow, even at this late date, miraculously survive, there's a chance the rest of us can make it too. (Obviously this logic is peculiar to the anglosphere, it doesn't quite apply the same way to Europe.)Replies: @Dmitry
They are normal for their communities in the USA.
But Korean immigrants in Japan, traditionally try to become Japanese, and do not support the Korean authorities. Most Russians in London, are not donating money for the Russian army now. Many, are donating for Ukrainian refugees.
What about descendants of Swedish immigrants of Minnesota? I don’t think they walking in the street with Sweden flags and Sweden parades. Or what about German Americans?
AP and Mr Hack political behavior is representative of a later approach for immigration in American “melting pot”, of communities who can be encouraged to romanticize the old country, and compete with each other for this ethnic pride (Columbus day parade of Italian Americans, competes with St Patrick’s of South Boston, or Celebrate Israel parade of New York).
At the same time, they became quite patriotic Americans, and were proud to fight in the American army in the Second World War. Sicilian mafia even supported the United States military entry to Sicily in 1943.
America introduced this compromise model, where the immigrants develop communities with over-exaggerated “ethnic pride”, while they were melting into each other. (This is one of the main themes of director Martin Scorsese).
I think English origin WASPs contained very important “family recipes”, since Locke or even a bit earlier, which most nationalities will need to learn and extracted. But I would say that it may be unlikely, but it is perhaps not impossible to transmit to other nationalities.
Singapore absorbed enough English law, if brutally instructed. And decades after the English exit, it is now necessarily so bad to live there, if you could survive some of their dictatorship aspects (which are less civilized and English).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi6r3hZe5Tg.
https://twitter.com/yin_sura/status/1515249522951159809?s=20&t=HTath_ZECK9Z2rEIaKClxQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi6r3hZe5Tg.Replies: @Wokechoke
Ukraine is cringe Norwegian Death Metal while Russia is bizarre world music ripsaw.
I note one Ukrainian seems to have discovered cannibalism. After two months. It took two years for the West’s darlings in Syria to do that. History is speeding up.
Fair enough, though to western liberal ears I can assure you it would sound absurd – even outright evil – to classify that as “tolerance for diversity.”
I had vague knowledge that it dated back to the Stalin era, I assumed it was post-1945 but maybe it was before, various European regimes have promoted policies like this.
I was not aiming to write about the issue of high fertility, but the aspiration to maintain replacement level fertility. Some comparison could be made between Belarus, where the government still promoted these Soviet slogans, and the UK, where the government was indifferent or promoted functionally anti-natalist attitudes (this was a thing in the 1990s, the plague of young single mothers on benefits trope.) IIRC the TFR among white British in the mid 2010s was around 1.4, whereas in Belarus it was around 1.75.
I was surprised by what my wife said because the small minority of educated British women I could imagine saying something like that seriously would be ‘High Tories’ or Far-Right, in Belarusian terms my wife is definitely a liberal.
https://i.imgur.com/AhTy5oj.png United Kingdom has a rapidly increasing population, although in future decades it will be not natural growth, and boosted by immigration (which has different issues). The Kingdom increased by more than half of the population of Belarus, in the recent ten years.
Belarus has a falling population, with "waves" in the population pyramid. Although I don't think this will be disliked by Lukashenko after 2020. Only 10,1% of the population are in the age 20-30 (which is probably the main group with energy to protest). https://i.imgur.com/1zneDG7.png Have you seen what Bertrand Russell said in the YouTube video? He thinks the main problem in the world, is people had too many children. In the 19th century, this was in Europe and commonly discussed. In middle 20th century, Russell, says in the video, "Europe has solved this, but Asia is irresponsible" In the 20th century, with industrialization, by the 1930s, more imperialist politicians (Hitler, Stalin) are going to pro-natalist slogans, although more as a symptom of the low fertility, than cause of higher fertility Second half of the 20th century, Soviet culture goes very to the "one child family" in reality, and the authorities panic and create slogans (as fertility falls) to try to motivate people to have larger families. In the 21st century, most of Asia will be below replacement fertility. Africa will be the last place to "demographic transition", resulting in much higher proportion of the world's population. Still, countries like United Kingdom, have too much of a "population boom" now due to desirability for immigration. They will have more problems of overcrowding and destruction of the environment as a result of the growing population. Belarus and Ukraine (it sounds bad in today context) could become a kind of "ecotourism reserve", if they scare enough people to exit. Belarus population will be rapidly falling during the 2030s, even if emigration does not increase. On the positive side, perhaps they can reforest and create nature reserves.Replies: @Coconuts
My impression was that the East was more heavily invested in the idea of getting women into the workplace. And, yet, they almost collapse on the same line, before the East spikes up again (perhaps, due to cheap and subsidized daycare?), though still below replacement.
It seems obvious to me that rather than subsidize these very alien peoples, the West would probably have been better off, even if it focused pro-natalist subsidies on Eastern Europe, people who, though they are different, are much more closely related to us.Replies: @Coconuts
I often thought about that, I was moving between a place with a very significant Pakistani population, and Belarus, and you start to wonder why the UK is investing so much in Pakistani and similar populations, and not in other European ones. It was even fairly clear before the current wave of wokeness and decolonisation that the level of integration and similarity to the white British part of the population was quite low, even after 3 generations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Mirpuri They were tribal villagers who were not urbanized in Pakistan, before they arrive in the United Kingdom. At the same time, United Kingdom was one of the world's most advanced, postindustrial societies, at the time of their arrival. It's like they transported only about two thousand years. My impression of Pakistanis, is from knowing a rich Pakistani engineer, who seemed very "Westernized". My knowledge of Pakistan, is not too much otherwise though, even in the imagination. But if you could compare to Brazil, I would guess they are like the difference between cosmopolitan Sao Paulo elite, and the tribal villagers in Amazonian hinterlands.
I don’t know if they still do, but in the past Korean farmers used their own excreta to fertilise their crops, and US soldiers in the Korean War hated having to run through rice paddies during combat that were like open latrines. In one picture of a Marine NCO in 1950 who was later killed, he is running through a paddy and it is noticeable that he has removed his boots, perhaps because washing the filth from his bare feet would be easier than removing it from his boots. The Korean countryside also did not smell very fresh, to put it mildly…
Perhaps this is the green future that awaits us?
He already had de facto control over the parts of Ukraine that had been sympathetic to Russia. The rest of those regions is now a genocided wasteland of rubble and Russian soldiers' limbs anyway.
And if he doesn't completely defeat the Kyiv government by taking Kyiv, they will be trying to take back their sovereign territory forever.
Even if there is a ceasefire, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military will just switch to insurgent tactics, whether their government decides on this course or not.
Furthermore, if the Kyiv government stays in power, they will join NATO, host foreign military bases and be extremely militarised. This was way off the table beforehand. Were it not, it would have happened years ago. So Putin is going backwards.
Unless of course, Putin uses the leverage gained from 2014 and now, in terms of land, to negotiate a peace deal which Ukraine agrees to. But then Putin has gotten nothing to show for his war except Ukraine agreeing to not join an organisation which they and been unable to even begin to start joining for 30 years!
So really, without taking Kyiv, the only point of invading Ukraine would be to murder a bunch of Ukrainians and ruin their lives. Or have the Russian military humiliated.
Nevermind that without taking Kyiv, and probably the totality of Ukraine, the war will only likely end with Russian withdrawal, because Ukraine will not agree to end the war otherwise.
This tortured position you Putinists have gotten yourself into is completely ludicrous. Please stop. You are now basically just saying that Putin invasion is little more than a punitive expedition because Ukrainiana decided they didn't want to be allied with Russia and which ensures that Ukrainians never will be allied with Russia. You are reducing the war to no more than an act of cruelty born of Russian patheticness.Replies: @Mikhail, @Beckow, @Wokechoke
A punitive raid would have been over by now.
The EEs have to work with what they have. Btw, the German military industry seems to not agree with him.
This is an unfortunate situation and we need to think about how to get out of it. All those policies that were built for years (what some in EE call "Putin verstehe") are now being examined openly. On a human level, I do understand the Poles who have lost their filter but we need to find a way to communicate in a civil way. I understand because it may indeed look like some kind of a collusion there (at least from the POV of AfD types, I'm assuming). But these are separate matters. Ideally, it should be possible for conservative political forces, if any are left in Germany, to address each issue separately. As I understand, there are "normal" Germans out there who support Ukraine, I mean, it can't be all liberals and Greens? It would depend on what you mean by "mindset". If you mean wishful thinking or deliberate agitation, that's one thing. But the truth is that Russia brought this on herself and in the case of a Ukrainian victory or in the case of the full Russian goals not being met, there could be consequences. When you start the kind of a campaign that they did, it is bound to have huge consequences that could reverberate very far, in case of a failure. Some of the Russian generals knew this. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it would be a natural consequence, not somebody's lunacy or some deliberate attempt to "march on Moscow".Replies: @German_reader
I mean it’s lunacy because of the potential consequences of unchecked escalation. Russia literally has the power to destroy all of Europe and the US. One should never forget that fact.
The way I see it part of the Western political class now thinks Russia can be totally defeated on the battlefield, there’ll be regime change and Putin will end up in The Hague. See the comments by Liz Truss today, that the goal is removing Russian forces even from Crimea and the Donbass territories held before February, and that Ukraine should get the most modern Western weapons to achieve that goal. So total victory instead of stopping Russia’s offensive and aiming for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine sovereign over the territory it controlled before February and allows for some sort of association with the EU. imo that’s crazy and is going to end badly.
Of course, the situation is very serious, almost as serious as the Caribbean crisis? Although they were already pulling out the weapons at that point. The US would retaliate. All of the US would not be destroyed, Idaho would survive. It's not much, ofc.
Russia hasn't tested their nukes for 30 or more years. He'd have to be tried in absentia.
Anyway, the West sees a window where they could take Russia out of the great power game. Maybe for decades to come. Yes, this is a very high risk, high reward strategy. But Russia hasn't been helping, making nutty statements on their national TV such as repeating the "they'll croak but we'll go to heaven" meme, the way they did today. No, dear, you might actually go to hell now. Nukes are not for casual use as threats or for fighting regional wars. After their recent behavior there will just be more people out there who will not want them to even have nukes.
Imagine if Americans said things like that?
Please, do not blame the Ukrainians for this, they are just defending their home.Replies: @German_reader
I was not aiming to write about the issue of high fertility, but the aspiration to maintain replacement level fertility. Some comparison could be made between Belarus, where the government still promoted these Soviet slogans, and the UK, where the government was indifferent or promoted functionally anti-natalist attitudes (this was a thing in the 1990s, the plague of young single mothers on benefits trope.) IIRC the TFR among white British in the mid 2010s was around 1.4, whereas in Belarus it was around 1.75.
I was surprised by what my wife said because the small minority of educated British women I could imagine saying something like that seriously would be 'High Tories' or Far-Right, in Belarusian terms my wife is definitely a liberal.Replies: @Dmitry
I believe Hitler and Stalin are some of the first with very serious demographic gaps. Germany has below replacement fertility during the 1930s, according to the completed fertility.
Stalin imprisons the people who managed the 1937 census, which showed accurately, too low population, after the famines. And then there was the Second World War.
TFR is not fertility rate which determines population replacement, but a realtime estimator, which within decimals, moves up and down in waves with changes in timing of birth (while the fertility rate itself may be constant)
It is a procedure that is used to estimate what would be the likely completed fertility rate of a woman that passing through the current number of births per woman in each age group, in the reference period (which usually set as a current single year in e.g. UN database).
It doesn’t reflect what would be the fertility rate of any real women, as the real woman is not moving through the age-specific fertility rates of one particular year (unless she would be a type of time-traveller).
–
Within the decimels, Belarus has one of the more wildly varying TFR estimators in World Bank, which could be more related to strange local data reporting, as there is not the wave caused by changing of timing.
In the completed fertility (which is the real data which determines population replacement, but is lagging as it requires women to complete fertility years to measure). then Belarus has one of the most difficult situations, for women who already completed fertility.
United Kingdom has a rapidly increasing population, although in future decades it will be not natural growth, and boosted by immigration (which has different issues). The Kingdom increased by more than half of the population of Belarus, in the recent ten years.
Belarus has a falling population, with “waves” in the population pyramid. Although I don’t think this will be disliked by Lukashenko after 2020.
Only 10,1% of the population are in the age 20-30 (which is probably the main group with energy to protest).
Have you seen what Bertrand Russell said in the YouTube video? He thinks the main problem in the world, is people had too many children. In the 19th century, this was in Europe and commonly discussed. In middle 20th century, Russell, says in the video, “Europe has solved this, but Asia is irresponsible”
In the 20th century, with industrialization, by the 1930s, more imperialist politicians (Hitler, Stalin) are going to pro-natalist slogans, although more as a symptom of the low fertility, than cause of higher fertility
Second half of the 20th century, Soviet culture goes very to the “one child family” in reality, and the authorities panic and create slogans (as fertility falls) to try to motivate people to have larger families.
In the 21st century, most of Asia will be below replacement fertility. Africa will be the last place to “demographic transition”, resulting in much higher proportion of the world’s population.
Still, countries like United Kingdom, have too much of a “population boom” now due to desirability for immigration. They will have more problems of overcrowding and destruction of the environment as a result of the growing population. Belarus and Ukraine (it sounds bad in today context) could become a kind of “ecotourism reserve”, if they scare enough people to exit. Belarus population will be rapidly falling during the 2030s, even if emigration does not increase. On the positive side, perhaps they can reforest and create nature reserves.
Something interesting I was reading about the British Pakistani, is they arrive from the poorest rural group of Pakistan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Mirpuri
They were tribal villagers who were not urbanized in Pakistan, before they arrive in the United Kingdom. At the same time, United Kingdom was one of the world’s most advanced, postindustrial societies, at the time of their arrival. It’s like they transported only about two thousand years.
My impression of Pakistanis, is from knowing a rich Pakistani engineer, who seemed very “Westernized”. My knowledge of Pakistan, is not too much otherwise though, even in the imagination. But if you could compare to Brazil, I would guess they are like the difference between cosmopolitan Sao Paulo elite, and the tribal villagers in Amazonian hinterlands.
The way I see it part of the Western political class now thinks Russia can be totally defeated on the battlefield, there'll be regime change and Putin will end up in The Hague. See the comments by Liz Truss today, that the goal is removing Russian forces even from Crimea and the Donbass territories held before February, and that Ukraine should get the most modern Western weapons to achieve that goal. So total victory instead of stopping Russia's offensive and aiming for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine sovereign over the territory it controlled before February and allows for some sort of association with the EU. imo that's crazy and is going to end badly.Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
I was feeling that retrospectively, the historians will probably view lack of balance of power, as a cause of the war. You would know more about “Congress of Vienna”, than me.
Also a more conspiracy theory people (where is Utu) would be feeling Ukraine has been established as a trap, with very few Western weapons, before the invasion. Now it is like a mouse trap against Russia, where they wait until the mouse is not scared, eating the cheese, before the Western weapons go there. If the weapons were there before the invasion, the mouse would not go to eat the cheese.
I don't think there was a conscious Western trap, but now that Russia is apparently weaker than expected (and also widely reviled) some Western policy-makers seem to see an opportunity for permanently taking Russia out as a geopolitical factor, thereby isolating other "troublemakers" like China and Iran. imo it's a very high-risk strategy, since it turns the conflict into an all-or-nothing contest.Replies: @Dmitry
I wouldn’t quite phrase it like that…part of the reason for the invasion was probably a Russian perception that the military balance was steadily deteriorating (with Ukraine getting Western weapons and training, and those Turkish drones) and that the window for successful military action against that would be closing in the not too distant future.
I don’t think there was a conscious Western trap, but now that Russia is apparently weaker than expected (and also widely reviled) some Western policy-makers seem to see an opportunity for permanently taking Russia out as a geopolitical factor, thereby isolating other “troublemakers” like China and Iran. imo it’s a very high-risk strategy, since it turns the conflict into an all-or-nothing contest.
As for Iran, the current war, shows that weak powers with nuclear weapons, have significant leverage in the international community. Perhaps it would scare the international community to be more worried about the topic of nuclear non-proliferation, or perhaps not (they might alternatively want to reduce isolation of Iran, to focus against Russia).
It probably wouldn’t have changed things because Moscow had already made up their mind (as the window to attack Ukraine was closing — and they assessed correctly, if it really was the Ukrainian built Neptune that sank Moskva). However, Macrod did try, several times. But the Moscow side had already made disproportionate demands.
Remember that Ukraine had already lost territory. And Moscow had the option of only annexing the Donbas. But their goal was to destroy Ukraine in the form it was at the time. Once the bombing and invasion started, you couldn’t negotiate because they were projecting power and only agreed to negotiate when they were shown resistance. You don’t settle when you’re attacking and have the upper hand.
There is one big problem with making these concessions because once you start doing that, they may never stop. Besides, I doubt that Moscow would’ve been happy with minimal concessions. Moscow wanted Ukraine disarmed and for its political environment to change completely. Ukraine was “Anti-Rossiya” in their mind and they couldn’t tolerate it.
There are strings attached. America can be a liability and an unneeded competitor, too, it’s not as one-sided as you say.
The US elites and a part of the American (Anglo-Germanic) society. I’ve only seen positive attitudes (except here). I will not argue forcefully here in favor of the Baltics in NATO, since I support prioritizing the local capabilities.
It can be any adversary, hypothetically. Or it can be about economic control. It’s just something the US likes to keep “in the back pocket” so to speak (although they are quite committed). I’m not saying it’s ideal, but it’s by far not the worst.
Lviv was bombed at least twice and there would’ve been more damage had the Ukrainian air defense not hit some of the missiles. Hitting Lviv is a very, very big deal not just for Ukraine, but for the neighbors, too. I remember that night very well.
In my opinion, once you start bombing and hitting civilians, essentially murdering somebody’s kids, you invite total war. They just thought they’d be lucky enough not to be hit back and punished.
There have been a lot of fires in Southern Russia lately, it’s hard to guess what it is. It could be local partisans, those evading the draft, maybe the Russian side wanting to blame Ukraine or Ukrainians actually doing it. Or accidents because of the unusually high concentration of troops. Who knows, but there is already a danger of the conflict spreading (Transnistria, for example). The war is starting to cast a longer shadow.
There is talk of that in the South, second Holodomor. 🙁
Thankfully that’s not the case yet, but it could happen in certain pockets. There was some info today about the Moscovite forces planning to take the grain from the occupied areas in Southern Ukraine.
But that’s exactly the problem because neither of those seem all that appealing. Where is the reasonable middle? I don’t even object to MTG, she’s just that type, she’s not an outright Putinoid (it’s some of the Nick F’s people who are), it’s a small number of politicians, who may not be that significant. They were only 10 against 400 something in the House Lend-Lease vote today. Support to Ukraine is basically unanimous.
It’s good to have “assertive identity”, but one has to also be successful on the practical level. Hungary is lionized by the American far-right but their successes are not even all that (they managed to raise their TFR a little, but the Baltics had already done that, too, so how are they better vis a vis their own people?).
Also, I wouldn’t say that, for instance, Poland doesn’t have an assertive identity. Just because it’s got tinges you don’t like, doesn’t mean it’s not assertive.
And, btw, nobody owes anything to anybody, except their own people.
But I do accept your position, actually. Regarding Ukraine in particular, this has become way bigger than expected. The assistance package is unprecedented (well, except maybe Israel or WW2 days). The House approved the Lend-Lease today and that’s a very serious thing. It essentially means that not only the US is providing the weapons, namely, building up & maintaining Ukraine’s defense capabilities (something that a country normally should do on its own, although this is not an ordinary situation and Ukraine deserves help), but this also could mean that the US will open up production lines to produce any kind of weaponry that Ukraine could request which is a very big deal. Of course, it depends on what will be negotiated. And the majority of the American people support this.
The way I see it part of the Western political class now thinks Russia can be totally defeated on the battlefield, there'll be regime change and Putin will end up in The Hague. See the comments by Liz Truss today, that the goal is removing Russian forces even from Crimea and the Donbass territories held before February, and that Ukraine should get the most modern Western weapons to achieve that goal. So total victory instead of stopping Russia's offensive and aiming for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine sovereign over the territory it controlled before February and allows for some sort of association with the EU. imo that's crazy and is going to end badly.Replies: @Dmitry, @LatW
I doubt anyone is forgetting that. It looks like it’s being weighed what to do with the nuclear blackmail.
Of course, the situation is very serious, almost as serious as the Caribbean crisis? Although they were already pulling out the weapons at that point.
The US would retaliate. All of the US would not be destroyed, Idaho would survive. It’s not much, ofc.
Russia hasn’t tested their nukes for 30 or more years.
He’d have to be tried in absentia.
Anyway, the West sees a window where they could take Russia out of the great power game. Maybe for decades to come. Yes, this is a very high risk, high reward strategy. But Russia hasn’t been helping, making nutty statements on their national TV such as repeating the “they’ll croak but we’ll go to heaven” meme, the way they did today. No, dear, you might actually go to hell now. Nukes are not for casual use as threats or for fighting regional wars. After their recent behavior there will just be more people out there who will not want them to even have nukes.
Imagine if Americans said things like that?
Please, do not blame the Ukrainians for this, they are just defending their home.
However there are real risks of pushing too far imo. The risks in going for regime change an total elimination of Russia as a geopolitical factor are too high. It could even lead to a truly global war, since China and Iran are unlikely to wait passively for a Russian collapse that would leave them isolated (China's defense minister was for talks in Iran just recently). And if things go nuclear, well... No offense, but I think you should be concerned about the possibility of such an escalation out of pure self-interest, if nothing else. It would probably lead to the physical extinction of Latvians after all.
Of course, the situation is very serious, almost as serious as the Caribbean crisis? Although they were already pulling out the weapons at that point. The US would retaliate. All of the US would not be destroyed, Idaho would survive. It's not much, ofc.
Russia hasn't tested their nukes for 30 or more years. He'd have to be tried in absentia.
Anyway, the West sees a window where they could take Russia out of the great power game. Maybe for decades to come. Yes, this is a very high risk, high reward strategy. But Russia hasn't been helping, making nutty statements on their national TV such as repeating the "they'll croak but we'll go to heaven" meme, the way they did today. No, dear, you might actually go to hell now. Nukes are not for casual use as threats or for fighting regional wars. After their recent behavior there will just be more people out there who will not want them to even have nukes.
Imagine if Americans said things like that?
Please, do not blame the Ukrainians for this, they are just defending their home.Replies: @German_reader
Sure, these comments certainly indicate some form of national pathology. And obviously Russia shouldn’t get away with everything. I do think there should be sufficient weapons shipments to Ukraine to prevent Russia from capturing more territory and to force Russia into accepting a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukrainian core interests (full sovereignty over at least the territory held before the invasion, possibility of assocation with the EU) intact.
However there are real risks of pushing too far imo. The risks in going for regime change an total elimination of Russia as a geopolitical factor are too high. It could even lead to a truly global war, since China and Iran are unlikely to wait passively for a Russian collapse that would leave them isolated (China’s defense minister was for talks in Iran just recently). And if things go nuclear, well… No offense, but I think you should be concerned about the possibility of such an escalation out of pure self-interest, if nothing else. It would probably lead to the physical extinction of Latvians after all.
Well, should I respond like the Russians do? “We’ll all die anyway, we’ll go meet the ancestors”? (joking)
Of course, I am concerned. This kind of cr*ap is really disruptive. For example, it alters peoples’ plans as to where they want to and can live (which is an unneeded and unfair disruption in the modern age). Most of all, I’m worried for all the children in the region (not even from the nationality perspective, but their private perspective). The children will live in a more unstable world in more ways than one.
But my point wasn’t about that (that goes without saying). It was more about trivializing of nukes which is irresponsible. Being a nuclear state is on a level of its own and that kind of stature requires a more responsible, dignified attitude.
It’s not so much about Russia per se, it could be any country. If there was another large state somewhere doing this to other states or populations, I’d consider that state nutty and kind of evil. It’s just that I’ve never heard any other nuclear state do this. Maybe Israel towards Iran, but nowhere near to this level, Israel would never be that irresponsible.
China doesn’t want war, what’s happening now is the last thing China needed. In the case of Russia’s collapse, China would just assimilate Russia into its economy and continue acting like a large strategic player.
It could lead to a larger war just purely because these kinds of conflicts can spread. It is sometimes their innate nature.
Of course, I am concerned. This kind of cr*ap is really disruptive. For example, it alters peoples' plans as to where they want to and can live (which is an unneeded and unfair disruption in the modern age). Most of all, I'm worried for all the children in the region (not even from the nationality perspective, but their private perspective). The children will live in a more unstable world in more ways than one.
But my point wasn't about that (that goes without saying). It was more about trivializing of nukes which is irresponsible. Being a nuclear state is on a level of its own and that kind of stature requires a more responsible, dignified attitude.
It's not so much about Russia per se, it could be any country. If there was another large state somewhere doing this to other states or populations, I'd consider that state nutty and kind of evil. It's just that I've never heard any other nuclear state do this. Maybe Israel towards Iran, but nowhere near to this level, Israel would never be that irresponsible.Replies: @German_reader
I don’t really disagree. Obviously there’s something deeply wrong with Russians (including our former host) who say psycho things like “nuclear war isn’t that bad, we’ll go to heaven”, just because their anachronistic imperialist fantasies have been frustrated. But Western policy-makers should still try to act responsibly and do their best to prevent any further escalation of the crisis. That doesn’t mean one should throw Ukraine under the bus, but imo the weapons shipments to Ukraine ought to be coupled with a diplomatic effort and assurances that the West doesn’t seek regime change in Russia or Russia’s total defeat (which was the line at first, but is getting increasingly eroded). Still of course possible that Putin is beyond reasoning anyway and will choose escalation himself no matter what NATO does, but one should at least try to keep options for a negotiated settlement open. Because the alternatives are worse, potentially catastrophic.
Agree, but my fear is that it’s quite late for that. The summer of 2014 was already too late.
An international coalition has been established this week in Ramstein and Putin could be treated as a Hitler (Mariupol will have several Buchas that will be revealed, there are a dozen of mobile crematoria working to conceal the civilian casualties). A hitler with a nuke, nice….
My point was not so much about the current diplomatic disaster, but more about the pure mathematical result of Russia’s miscalculation. There were way too many adversaries (that Russia uses cuss words against) rising up in the neighborhood, in 2022 people want to live differently than what the Kremlin proposes. I understand their security concerns, because all of these lands are very close to Moscow. But they should’ve stopped being so categorical. If Bashibuzuk had not emigrated but become President of Russia, things would’ve turned out more positively. But it’s possible that the KGB may not have spared him, so it might be good that he left, for him personally, but not for Russia…
https://i.imgur.com/AhTy5oj.png United Kingdom has a rapidly increasing population, although in future decades it will be not natural growth, and boosted by immigration (which has different issues). The Kingdom increased by more than half of the population of Belarus, in the recent ten years.
Belarus has a falling population, with "waves" in the population pyramid. Although I don't think this will be disliked by Lukashenko after 2020. Only 10,1% of the population are in the age 20-30 (which is probably the main group with energy to protest). https://i.imgur.com/1zneDG7.png Have you seen what Bertrand Russell said in the YouTube video? He thinks the main problem in the world, is people had too many children. In the 19th century, this was in Europe and commonly discussed. In middle 20th century, Russell, says in the video, "Europe has solved this, but Asia is irresponsible" In the 20th century, with industrialization, by the 1930s, more imperialist politicians (Hitler, Stalin) are going to pro-natalist slogans, although more as a symptom of the low fertility, than cause of higher fertility Second half of the 20th century, Soviet culture goes very to the "one child family" in reality, and the authorities panic and create slogans (as fertility falls) to try to motivate people to have larger families. In the 21st century, most of Asia will be below replacement fertility. Africa will be the last place to "demographic transition", resulting in much higher proportion of the world's population. Still, countries like United Kingdom, have too much of a "population boom" now due to desirability for immigration. They will have more problems of overcrowding and destruction of the environment as a result of the growing population. Belarus and Ukraine (it sounds bad in today context) could become a kind of "ecotourism reserve", if they scare enough people to exit. Belarus population will be rapidly falling during the 2030s, even if emigration does not increase. On the positive side, perhaps they can reforest and create nature reserves.Replies: @Coconuts
It is indeed strange, with the huge fluctuation in 2016-20.
I think it is a mixed thing, because having too few children also becomes weird and does not look like a healthy community or group, and it may have some knock on psychological effects on the members. In many cases in Europe things have quickly gone from one extreme, like families of 8-10 children, to none or one in three generations. Then if the overall population doesn’t go down because of immigration, it will end up creating a different country, the territory is the same but the people there are different.
Isn’t this increase almost all due to immigration, and the children of post-1950 immigrants? Something like this may be mainly highlighting the success of the UK at attracting and providing a favourable environment for immigration and ethnic minority communities, but it is less clear what the impact is on the majority ethnic group, which could be following much the same path as the Belarusians, maybe with some delay because UK old people live for longer.
Quite possibly, the UK will suffer from this in the longer run, because if it continues on present trends it will be both overcrowded and very unequal, and like an ethnic mosaic at the same time, in this case volatile or strange politics might be predicted. I wonder what will happen with Belarus and Ukraine, when the falls become more obvious, will some sort of counter trend in fertility emerge, or will they end up with enormous nature reserves? Will other populations try to move into the territory?
Countries like Bulgaria (which are in EU), Armenia or to smaller extent (because it is not in EU) Belarus, are in an opposite situation. They don't receive much immigration in normal times, but they have braindrain and emigration of the younger population. The population stays or becomes even more ethnically homogenous, it loses many of its more talented people, and its younger people. I think we can guess how it will be already? Like continuation of the current situation? Wealthy areas, with hi-tech industry, will attract very multinational population. High educated Indians and Chinese will be a significant component of the professional class. English bourgeoisie will be economically successful, with increasing value of their property and culture. I haven't visited much of a lower class area of the United Kingdom, except London. I would predict whether they survive, or fall to multinational dystopia, depends mainly about the wider economic situation. If the whole economy can grow, then there might be perhaps enough "trickle down" from the wealthy areas to the failing areas?Replies: @Philip Owen
I think demographically, it will just be like a less successful provinces in Russia. Younger people are exiting for large successful cities (which also receive immigration from non-Russian areas). The local area becomes a little like a museum, with relics of the golden years of the 20th century.
New populations will not move into the territory, because in the 21st century people move for economics. With a modern capital-intensive agriculture, its land by itself is less valuable as productivity is very high, land doesn’t contain serfs, and capital is the expensive part.
At least Belarus won’t be like the most demographically falling cases, e.g. part of the Far East in Russia, where even a lot of older people internally emigrate.
Although it is relatively small change in our culture, compared to the previous centuries.
Psychologically, in many ways, we obviously not evolved for modern world. For example, one of the main reasons, is we are evolved most of our history, for societies where there are only around 100 people.
200 generations ago, an experience of “crowds of people” would be impossible to find almost anywhere in the world, but today it is available in every small city.
Our human society, which emerges after agriculture, slavery, etc is of course a little dystopian (I won’t add anything that isn’t written about in most of the post-Hegel philosophy).
But in last thousand years, and especially few centuries – our situation becomes completely bizarre.
In Bertrand Russell’s life (who said he remembers when England was beautiful and less crowded), world population increased maybe 3-4 times. But the quantity of this increase during his life, is like adding more than 15 times of total human population that existed in Jesus’ time. In addition, before modern transport and communication, the proportion of people you would see in your life, would be even much smaller than today, despite this increase.
Yes perhaps they aren’t reporting in time, so some births go into wrong years. But it is not huge fluctuation. Natural population replacement is determined by children per women and spacing between generations.
We don’t know accurately children per women, until the cohort of the fertile women have completed their fertility period. Then you need the spacing between the generations, and the replacement rate, you can calculate the natural population growth.
TFR is “back of envelope” estimator, to provide “real time” guess, based in the idea of looking at risk of having children of each age in each year. Then you assume this risk for women in each age group will be constant across their fertile years.
But in reality, risk of having children for women in each age group today, will perhaps be different in 25 years, by the time the youngest fertile cohort will be completing fertility. So changes across years in relation of age and fertility risk, are resulting in inaccurate results from the TFR estimator.
However, for demographers or geographers, working in the international organizations after the Second World War, it is useful, as it is not used to give you accurate decimels.
You can use TFR to have approximate concept of number of children per women. So in India, in 1950, it might estimate 6 children per women.
Whether TFR estimates 6,6 children per women, while the completed fertility will be 6,3 children per women, is not important, because the model was not designed to perfectly calculate the number of your future citizens, but provide a “back of envelope” sense for the current year (if people do not change their fertility behavior in the next 25 years).
I think it’s funny that in the last decade, journalists and politicians have then started to become interested in this concept of fertility rate, without reading any papers of demography. I’m not knowledgeable about demography. But it reminds of similar kinds of journalists’ discussion of “artificial intelligence”, where they become obsessed about a phrase, without understanding any of the concepts that can be covered in a textbook of computer science.
UK is example of a destination country for immigration, rather than source country for emigration.
Its proportion of native origin, will fall, if the natural population doesn’t grow. But at the same time, there isn’t much emigration of native population, or braindrain of native population.
In the recent years, English people don’t exit with significant numbers. So it keeps its original population. But the island becomes more and more crowded as immigrants are increasing the population. This was especially the situation before Brexit, when UK was flooded with young people from Spain, Italy, Poland, etc.
Countries like Bulgaria (which are in EU), Armenia or to smaller extent (because it is not in EU) Belarus, are in an opposite situation. They don’t receive much immigration in normal times, but they have braindrain and emigration of the younger population. The population stays or becomes even more ethnically homogenous, it loses many of its more talented people, and its younger people.
I think we can guess how it will be already? Like continuation of the current situation?
Wealthy areas, with hi-tech industry, will attract very multinational population. High educated Indians and Chinese will be a significant component of the professional class. English bourgeoisie will be economically successful, with increasing value of their property and culture.
I haven’t visited much of a lower class area of the United Kingdom, except London. I would predict whether they survive, or fall to multinational dystopia, depends mainly about the wider economic situation. If the whole economy can grow, then there might be perhaps enough “trickle down” from the wealthy areas to the failing areas?
I don't think there was a conscious Western trap, but now that Russia is apparently weaker than expected (and also widely reviled) some Western policy-makers seem to see an opportunity for permanently taking Russia out as a geopolitical factor, thereby isolating other "troublemakers" like China and Iran. imo it's a very high-risk strategy, since it turns the conflict into an all-or-nothing contest.Replies: @Dmitry
I don’t think this is what was seen from the military operation plan, where the first days were “thunder runs”, including unarmored police vehicles in the first echelon, then unguarded supply vehicles traveling on the territory which has not been occupied.
The perception seems that Ukraine would be very weak (even more weak than in reality), nationalists are just like a minority of hijackers, so that it can be almost more of a police than military operation, something almost similar to Prague 1968.
The situation of China, from the American perception, is that it is a rising power, but currently behaves more calmly than expected.
Whereas with Russia, it is a falling power, but currently behaves more aggressively than expected, for internal reasons.
Whether China will continue to behave calmly, or behave more aggressively in the future, when it goes into a middle income trap?
Racial or even cultural stereotypes, are probably not going to help them predict this, as history is a little too contingent and arbitrary (you can look at the different behavior of North and South Korea), and can be influenced even by the individual personalities.
As for Iran, the current war, shows that weak powers with nuclear weapons, have significant leverage in the international community. Perhaps it would scare the international community to be more worried about the topic of nuclear non-proliferation, or perhaps not (they might alternatively want to reduce isolation of Iran, to focus against Russia).
Low fertility is the result of the banks offering mortgages based on two incomes. First the greedy took them up. Then everycouple had to have two incomes to afford the same house that one bought before. Eventually houses got bigger but not so much and now there are now children and no one to make them homes.
Low Fertility is characteristic of irreligious literate white women with higher education diplomas and degrees. It’s showing up in Japan and Korea too but these two states have birth rates that are outliers even in Asia.
Perhaps this is something bankers, meaning Jews, are happy to see in white countries? I think so. Makes flooding the zone with Africans easier. After all who else will pay your pension Mr Owen…
Countries like Bulgaria (which are in EU), Armenia or to smaller extent (because it is not in EU) Belarus, are in an opposite situation. They don't receive much immigration in normal times, but they have braindrain and emigration of the younger population. The population stays or becomes even more ethnically homogenous, it loses many of its more talented people, and its younger people. I think we can guess how it will be already? Like continuation of the current situation? Wealthy areas, with hi-tech industry, will attract very multinational population. High educated Indians and Chinese will be a significant component of the professional class. English bourgeoisie will be economically successful, with increasing value of their property and culture. I haven't visited much of a lower class area of the United Kingdom, except London. I would predict whether they survive, or fall to multinational dystopia, depends mainly about the wider economic situation. If the whole economy can grow, then there might be perhaps enough "trickle down" from the wealthy areas to the failing areas?Replies: @Philip Owen
Software companies that might pay a London deeloper 80k GBP a year are moving to places like South Wales and paying 40k GBP a year and the developer gets more out of life for that money. Then there is Working From Home.
http://www.statsmapsnpix.com/2020/04/
It’s good that it rains so much there as the population would die of thirst otherwise.
The UK is oversubscribed.
http://www.statsmapsnpix.com/2020/04/
It’s good that it rains so much there as the population would die of thirst otherwise.
The Russian bombings will not stop until Russia is forced to sue for peace (Putin told his generals that if they can't take Ukraine, then to raze it to the ground). There are still a few weeks until the heavy weapons shipments arrive fully.
Neither side is listening to the posters here, we're talking to each other. It's a display of opinion not real life affairs. Your view would be a more balanced and genuine pacifism had you advocated for Russia to de-escalate too, but you were dead silent about it (or worse, making excuses). So the whole world sees that Russia is the aggressor and you don't. This is not for you or for the US to decide. This is for Denis and Andriy in the Ukrainian military to decide. And if what you propose had been done in history (immediate capitulation), there would be no countries. Countries are peoples' only homes that they can't lose (not sure you understand this, it's the same as you losing your country to multiculturalists, just in a more brutal way). Total war, I meant from Ukraine's side. And the reason Russia hasn't done the draft is because it is very unpopular. Recruitment centers in Russia have been catching fire lately. They're their goals, too. They reached out and asked for help. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about and how far you are from the truth. No, people are dying from the Russian bombings and Russians shooting them. There is also rape and torture. And, no, this is not about "hangups" as you say, we were ready to move on, it is the Moscovite side that wants to go back. We said we don't want it in 1991. They don't seem to get it. Tell that to the Scots Irish gentlemen who arrived as early as 1994 (!!) with Partnership for Peace. As to the insult to the Russians, while it might be there, it's not that big -- the biggest insult for them was that we gave up bilingualism and didn't acknowledge the WW2 victory as victory. But despite that the relations were quite ok, the trade grew a lot, the trade with Russia was highest ever in history right before Covid and before the invasion. Some of their companies and specialists were working at the Baltic ports, they started importing more varied product. Tourism was doing well. Things were looking up despite the geopolitics. There were never any issues with Kaliningrad for 30 years.
There is definitely value to the Baltics being in NATO, because the Baltic ports are the closest unfreezing ports to the Arctic, and the US gets to have transparency over the financial flows (closely connected with Scandinavia and even Germany and through there connected to New York, and the US thus gets to control the financial flows from the East). Anyway... even if the US wasn't there, we would still have a chance to work with the British. As well as Poland and Ukraine. And I support increasing the armed forces, it might actually suffice seeing how things are going. I support Ukrainian nationalists and the people, not liberals, but I have nothing against Zelensky, he has done well given the circumstances. My mom adores him. But when I hear all those Putin chants in far right American meetings, I don't want to have anything in common. If one third of the Republican party becomes like Marjorie Taylor Green in 10 or so years (when boomers leave), then bye bye for good.Replies: @songbird, @Wokechoke
http://www.statsmapsnpix.com/2020/04/
Ukraine might as well be wiped off the map now anyway.
Ukraine might as well be wiped off the map now anyway.Replies: @LatW
N0, because low population density means that large swaths of land remain free and unspoiled. In certain overpopulated European countries the soil is already getting overworked, so they have to innovate in agriculture. There are issues with housing, immigration, etc. Ukraine will not have such problems.
No Ukrainians no problems. That’s on the menu now.
This is anti Semitic gibberish Phillip. Low Fertility is a result of liberated free thinking citizens. Lol.
Low Fertility is characteristic of irreligious literate white women with higher education diplomas and degrees. It’s showing up in Japan and Korea too but these two states have birth rates that are outliers even in Asia.
Perhaps this is something bankers, meaning Jews, are happy to see in white countries? I think so. Makes flooding the zone with Africans easier. After all who else will pay your pension Mr Owen…