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Open Thread 186: Russia/Ukraine
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The previous Open Thread has well over 1,000 comments and is getting a little sluggish, so here’s a new one for the Karlin Community.

Just to kick it off, here are a couple of interviews I’d strongly recommend, one of British Prof. Richard Sakwa on the Grayzone, and the other of Scott Ritter you was just interviewed yesterday by Andrew Napolitano:

— Ron Unz

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Open Thread, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Kofman has a new episode up, too.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

    I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images. I lean more towards Ritter being right (despite his at-times blind pro-Russian cheerleading). Still, I think readers could benefit from both perspectives as Kofman is fairly level-headed and the pro-UKR perspective is needed to balance out Ritter.

    With the US military openly admitting that they want to weaken Russia, this is as official as it gets to this being classified as a US-Russian proxywar, with Eastern Europe as the chessboard.

    The reports that Russia is shutting off gas for non-ruble payers is hilarious, and entirely foreseeable. Europe is paying the price for being an inert spectator as America controls its foreign – and increasingly, military – policies. I can’t say I feel much empathy. If people are stupid, they deserve to get punished.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    If it were a “total slaughter” one would expect Russia to gain more than a handful of villages while losing a few at the same time.

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment in the failed attempt to take Kiev and the North and has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West. So now Russia is steadily and slowly advancing in the southeast while bleeding men and equipment which become of progressively worse quality as the war drags on. At some point it will all ground to a halt, the question is where and if Ukraine can regain lands (and how many) after Russia exhausts itself.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images.
     
    Thanks, I'll listen to it a little later today.

    I don't have any solid military expertise and I haven't spent a lot of time trying to follow the details of the conflict, but I'd probably lean strongly towards Ritter's version. Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he's a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who's spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he'd have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    One advantage of judging rival claims about who's winning a war is that there's a very objective reality that will probably become pretty apparent sooner rather than later. It's not like arguing about what global temperatures will be in 2070.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    , @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).
     
    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn't find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia's last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I'm very, very skeptical.

    My impression---just an impression---is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn't anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn't time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I'm surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here's the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter's positions, he'd soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Dmitry

  2. In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.

    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) – yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support – yes
    * Russian popular support – yes
    * Negotiations a charade – yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency – yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia’s likely maximalist goals – yes so far, Kherson People’s Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me – the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a title=”"https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claimshttps://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.

    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin’s aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and “imminent demise” (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.
     
    Putin should have sent in 800,000 properly equipped troops then!

    But I get your point. 95% of people thought that Russia would roll it. Including the Russian government, as any honest military observer can tell from their movements, also so did the US and EU intelligence agencies, and most educated commenters.

    Unfortunately for Russia, the remaining 5% included the Ukrainians, who kept getting forgotten about in the lead-up to this war, by both sides, and are even frequently forgotten about a lot now by commenters here.

    Whoever would have guessed that Eastern Slavs, fighting for their homeland, would make formidable and intelligent fighters?

    Also, a test for the honesty, or at least baseline competence, of a pro-Russian observer, is whether they deny the absolute obvious: that Putin thought it would be a cakewalk and that the convoy to Kyiv would essentially be a victory column as the other Russian forces smashed the Ukrainian army in the field. Deny that, and you're a shill or an idiot. I respect that you don't. And those who do, don't even make good propagandists. Anyone who is not in their bubble just thinks they're insane.

    predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress)
     
    I no longer think this is likely. This war has changed things. China can't go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much. And it seems like no one would join them in their bloc. Xi can crush the cosmopolitan types, but they'll be a majority if China gets actually rich, and they'll also be the people most other Chinese aspire to be. Imagine the West, but without the immigrants, and how ridiculously SWPL it would turn out.

    And if China doesn't make it to proper high developed status, then a bifurcation is even worse for them and so even more unlikely.

    the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos
     
    I really liked his observation that black Americans are the connoisseur class among Americans, but I think it should be refined to the observation that white Americans have made black Americans a blank screen onto which to project their collective inner child. The child should enjoy presents, be emotionally expressive and generally not be treated too harshly, or have responsibility expected of them. So black Americans then!

    Russia will almost certainly win regardless
     
    Since Russia is still far from winning, it is extremely unlikely that they are going to win. The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don't see how the trend can be reversed. Russia can learn and adapt in the field, but so can Ukraine, and Ukraine now has more troops, quicker swelling numbers and better supply than Russia.

    I just don't see what Russia can do to affect this horrible calculation. Only fighting in the Donbas was good, but not enough. Even full mobilisation is too late.

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!
     
    Happy Easter! Whatever happens, everything will get better. No one ever really dies, even though every death is a tragedy. On a timeline of eternity, we should all be hopeful.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin


    a belated Happy Easter to all!
     
    A belated happy Easter to you sir!

    You left out the Chechen performance art. The meme warfare could use some more attention.

    I recently came across the following and recommend it:

    The History of Esotericism in Soviet Russia in the 1920s–1930s
    Konstantin Burmistrov

    (No internet link but I downloaded it free via academia.)
    , @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    By "demons" do you mean the innocent civilians that have perished or had their homes destroyed by "liberators" from the North country? Are you familiar with the other "Russian nationalist" that now has his own blog here at UNZ, Rolo Slavskyi? He seems to be the only Russian nationalist that makes even the smallest modicum of sense from all the rest of the kremlin stooges that flock to UNZ. Boiling down their input they all begin to sound tediously similar to the output of your own hand picked successor at this blog, Gerard. He (Slavskyi) seems to understand a few things and is sharing these ideas and questions here:


    Well, tens of thousands of Ukrainians, who by all rights ought to be pointing their rifles at NATO, are now hunkered down in Donbass instead, and about to be shelled repeatedly into surrender or oblivion by the Russian forces...And even now, the Kremlin and its loathsome PR spokespeople claim that they are only in Ukraine temporarily, to conduct a de-nazification campaign. Not only is this claim bizarre, but what’s worse, people think they might actually mean it. So, after smashing the Ukrainian army and the volunteer battalions, they intend to do what — pull out?... Why then should anyone in Ukraine support the Russian army? So that they can receive a bullet to the head for being collaborators once they’re gone? No wonder Ukrainians are hunkering down and keeping quiet. Why support a military that won’t be there to protect you once they’ve won? After all, genius strategic feint or not, Kiev and the environs around it were abandoned.
     
    https://www.unz.com/article/the-ukraine-debacle/

    Of course I differ with a lot of his views. But on some things he seems to get it right. Do you think that it's a good idea to continue pummeling civilian areas in Eastern Ukraine where there are a preponderance of Russian speakers? Apparently, God-Man Putler does....

    , @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It really looks like more of a middle case. Neither the Ukie nor Russian maximalists are doing well.
    ___

    If Russia had the capability, launching "Shock & Awe" on Kiev or an adjacent target would have been sensible to break Ukrainian resistance. That they could not do so, points at a serious weakness. The plan for Northern front did not work.

    Realigning to a more compact Eastward facing, provides infantry flanking cover that substantially reduces NLAW risk. It will allow consolidation of Kherson, Kherkiv, Mariupol, and a more or less North/South demarcation line. However, the density required for force protection does not allow the maximalist goal of taking effectively all of Ukraine.
    ____

    On the other side:

    How will Ukrainian forces advance over open ground to recapture lost cities?

    They could not even "press" withdrawing forces departing the Kiev area. The idea of a coordinated "offensive" requiring armor and mechanized infantry does not appear to be available. Almost every Ukrainian win has been "small unit". That is solid defense, but does not move the ball in the other direction.

    Despite the loss of the Moskva, freighter transit to/from Ukraine is effectively 'nil'. If Ukraine can harvest enough grain to sell, how are they going to move it? A small portion can go to Poland by rail, but the large MENA buyers, like Egypt, are disconnected. As an effectively land locked country, Ukraine has an economic problem of epic scale.
    ______

    The best solution for Christian Russia and Christian Ukraine is an armistice. Neither side has a clear path to WIN. Both sides will experience a great deal of LOSE-LOSE grief while an accommodation remains out of reach.

    PEACE 😇

    , @sudden death
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Rather conveniently forgot to mention your proposed own predictions and Putler's alleged plans about greatly increasing RF population power, while for now it is EU that already got the boost of about 5 million working age european christian people from all UA, but their elder parents were mostly left in captured lands and fight zones.

    , @SIMP simp
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Christ is Risen!

    , @Guest2022
    @Anatoly Karlin


    3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people
     
    Why are you lying?

    https://twitter.com/ashoswain/status/1510189766612029441

    You said "days not weeks" in one tweet and in another said "hours"...
    , @Guest2022
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    He didn't predict Trump's election victory. He got that wrong as well:

    I spent the election roundup drinking at a London School of Economics student common room. I am pretty sure that I and the Russian student who invited me were the only Trump supporters there out of 30 or 40 people. This is not that surprising when one considers that Trump Derangement Syndrome is universal throughout Yurop and Britbongistan, and furthermore, that this was: (a) London; (b) millennials; (c) students; (d) at a pretty elite institution, which made for a quadruple whammy. It was all good though since I got to feel like the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg.

    Though I do regret not sticking to my guns and continuing to insist on a Trump victory as I had been doing a couple of months previously, I am nonetheless very happy to have been wrong. The bankers might not be so happy, but who cares.
     
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/trump-train-converges-to-c/

    As recent as December 2021 (and probably also January) he denied Russia would invade Ukraine:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1468659468544139271

    He made his prediction in February when the Russian military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border was most noticeable. A lot of people at this time predicted an invasion when this happened - it was pretty obvious. So Karlin's only successful prediction was the most obvious one, everything else he has gotten wrong but now lies about his incorrect predictions.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin


    cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneaker.. undecipherable
     
    Perhaps unintentionally from you, but my vanity experiences a complement, especially how you added the word "cosmopolitan".

    My ego is vain enough, that from this single fact you add "cosmopolitan", I started to feel more warmly to you again and almost wanted to apologize for saying you posted fake news last month (although posting fake news was still weak sauce).

    If my posts are giving an impression of "cosmopolitan", then my writing skills must be improving. I remember a few years, my posts were only resulting in claims of "autism". I used to have about five users claiming I have "autism", which not the impression I wanted to create lol.

    I have less illusion about "Jew" than you, as I found many Jews are provincial rednecks, neither very intelligent, and not exactly a cosmopolitan either elite some people like to imagine. From your description of me, I'm envisaging a sophisticated financier with New York penthouse and underground bunker where he keeps WuTang first edition vinyl, carefully polished 1950s Porsche and fresh boxes of Nike Air Force 1.

    My origin is just lower class Russians, which disappear in the family tree, to small villages, i.e. with zero influence in history and world events . A grandfather with Jewish roots, which is more exciting, trace the roots to authentic Yiddish names like from Sholem Aleichem stories, but we couldn't trace many generations, also to unknown villages, i.e. even non-Russian, Jewish branch in our family ancestry, are probably from an even more lower class tree than the Russian branch.

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, "idiosyncratic" accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a "Russian nationalist", I didn't consider it undecipherable.

    I saw it was very postmodernist, Dada trolling of Russian nationalism, as expected from people of your origin, that has an education in San Francisco and London, and more or less the opposite of any stereotype of nowadays a little too much persecuted (although not without reason) Russian nationalists.

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers "Russians" to be "people of color" that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you. I considered his sentiment to be an honor and didn't even say anything to damage it, but I believe AP has to disappoint him.

    But in your more aggressive comments of recent weeks, I'm assuming you are trolling but I'm starting to feel like Ray Liotta in a "Goodfellas" clips. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @silviosilver

    , @Philip Owen
    @Anatoly Karlin

    So much for Christianity. Russia belongs to Mars. The ROC is godless.

  3. What’s the point of this war for Russia?

    Anything, but taking almost of Ukraine makes, even in Russian terms, attempts at supposed “demilitarisation” and “denazification” counter-productive.

    Ukraine will be a lot more NATO, a lot more anti-Russian and a lot more militarised after this war than before, especially the longer it goes on.

    As for territory, Russia has plenty of land already, and they controlled the bits of Ukraine that were most appropriate (Crimea etc) before the war. There was very little fighting and Ukrainians were sort of accepting of it.

    But now Ukraine will not accept it and Russia will have an eternal insurgency to deal with, and a constant conventional threat. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia.

    And it is extremely obvious that they have no ability to take Kyiv, so…yeah, well, what’s the point?

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO, not because they are not bloodthirsty enough, but because they are too weak and incompetent?

    To murder some Ukrainians?

    To destroy the Russian military?

    To forge a united Ukrainian nation in the fires of war?

    To make NATO 10 times stronger and to empower Western militarists?

    To make the Iraq war look good?

    To discredit their own ruling system?

    To destroy the election chances of Putin-sympathetic Western nationalist leaders?

    To make a joke out of Russia’s gas station economy?

    What?

    Maybe even to lose to Ukraine?

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html


    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhid president.

    , @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html


    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

    , @Derer
    @Triteleia Laxa


    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO,
     
    Are you getting your info on NATO capabilities from NATO headquarters or Taliban fighters?
  4. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    Putin should have sent in 800,000 properly equipped troops then!

    But I get your point. 95% of people thought that Russia would roll it. Including the Russian government, as any honest military observer can tell from their movements, also so did the US and EU intelligence agencies, and most educated commenters.

    Unfortunately for Russia, the remaining 5% included the Ukrainians, who kept getting forgotten about in the lead-up to this war, by both sides, and are even frequently forgotten about a lot now by commenters here.

    Whoever would have guessed that Eastern Slavs, fighting for their homeland, would make formidable and intelligent fighters?

    Also, a test for the honesty, or at least baseline competence, of a pro-Russian observer, is whether they deny the absolute obvious: that Putin thought it would be a cakewalk and that the convoy to Kyiv would essentially be a victory column as the other Russian forces smashed the Ukrainian army in the field. Deny that, and you’re a shill or an idiot. I respect that you don’t. And those who do, don’t even make good propagandists. Anyone who is not in their bubble just thinks they’re insane.

    predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress)

    I no longer think this is likely. This war has changed things. China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much. And it seems like no one would join them in their bloc. Xi can crush the cosmopolitan types, but they’ll be a majority if China gets actually rich, and they’ll also be the people most other Chinese aspire to be. Imagine the West, but without the immigrants, and how ridiculously SWPL it would turn out.

    And if China doesn’t make it to proper high developed status, then a bifurcation is even worse for them and so even more unlikely.

    the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos

    I really liked his observation that black Americans are the connoisseur class among Americans, but I think it should be refined to the observation that white Americans have made black Americans a blank screen onto which to project their collective inner child. The child should enjoy presents, be emotionally expressive and generally not be treated too harshly, or have responsibility expected of them. So black Americans then!

    Russia will almost certainly win regardless

    Since Russia is still far from winning, it is extremely unlikely that they are going to win. The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed. Russia can learn and adapt in the field, but so can Ukraine, and Ukraine now has more troops, quicker swelling numbers and better supply than Russia.

    I just don’t see what Russia can do to affect this horrible calculation. Only fighting in the Donbas was good, but not enough. Even full mobilisation is too late.

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    Happy Easter! Whatever happens, everything will get better. No one ever really dies, even though every death is a tragedy. On a timeline of eternity, we should all be hopeful.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much.

    Some rootless coastal cosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517093195221549057

    There will be no dawn for them.


    The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed.
     
    This is almost certainly incorrect, but the truth of the matter should become clear sooner rather than later.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  5. AP says:
    @Thulean Friend
    Kofman has a new episode up, too.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

    I just finished listening to it, and it's pretty pessimistic on Russia's chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I'm about 10 mins into Ritter and it's the usual "this is a total slaughter, it's not even a fair fight anymore".

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images. I lean more towards Ritter being right (despite his at-times blind pro-Russian cheerleading). Still, I think readers could benefit from both perspectives as Kofman is fairly level-headed and the pro-UKR perspective is needed to balance out Ritter.

    ---

    With the US military openly admitting that they want to weaken Russia, this is as official as it gets to this being classified as a US-Russian proxywar, with Eastern Europe as the chessboard.

    ---

    The reports that Russia is shutting off gas for non-ruble payers is hilarious, and entirely foreseeable. Europe is paying the price for being an inert spectator as America controls its foreign - and increasingly, military - policies. I can't say I feel much empathy. If people are stupid, they deserve to get punished.

    Replies: @AP, @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz

    If it were a “total slaughter” one would expect Russia to gain more than a handful of villages while losing a few at the same time.

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment in the failed attempt to take Kiev and the North and has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West. So now Russia is steadily and slowly advancing in the southeast while bleeding men and equipment which become of progressively worse quality as the war drags on. At some point it will all ground to a halt, the question is where and if Ukraine can regain lands (and how many) after Russia exhausts itself.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @AP


    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment
     
    ASBMil is admittedly a pro-Russian telegram account, but they tend to be fair in their analysis IMO, and they are admitting that a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct. In addition, Russia disproportionately used its worst equipment early on (lots of T-72, few T-90s). That is slowly changing.

    https://t.me/asbmil/1271
    https://t.me/asbmil/1272


    has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.
     
    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don't think it will be enough to tip the balance. I won't be boring and claim I'm at equivalent distance between Kofman and Ritter. I still think Ritter is more right and I still think Russia will bring this to a close on favourable terms, but it will be tougher than many assume (I include myself in that group).

    Replies: @AP

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It's a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine's mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517906770659790848

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you'd need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AP, @Wielgus

  6. @Thulean Friend
    Kofman has a new episode up, too.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

    I just finished listening to it, and it's pretty pessimistic on Russia's chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I'm about 10 mins into Ritter and it's the usual "this is a total slaughter, it's not even a fair fight anymore".

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images. I lean more towards Ritter being right (despite his at-times blind pro-Russian cheerleading). Still, I think readers could benefit from both perspectives as Kofman is fairly level-headed and the pro-UKR perspective is needed to balance out Ritter.

    ---

    With the US military openly admitting that they want to weaken Russia, this is as official as it gets to this being classified as a US-Russian proxywar, with Eastern Europe as the chessboard.

    ---

    The reports that Russia is shutting off gas for non-ruble payers is hilarious, and entirely foreseeable. Europe is paying the price for being an inert spectator as America controls its foreign - and increasingly, military - policies. I can't say I feel much empathy. If people are stupid, they deserve to get punished.

    Replies: @AP, @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz

    Kofman has a new episode up, too…I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images.

    Thanks, I’ll listen to it a little later today.

    I don’t have any solid military expertise and I haven’t spent a lot of time trying to follow the details of the conflict, but I’d probably lean strongly towards Ritter’s version. Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    One advantage of judging rival claims about who’s winning a war is that there’s a very objective reality that will probably become pretty apparent sooner rather than later. It’s not like arguing about what global temperatures will be in 2070.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.
     
    I've since listened to a couple of his interviews now at that link 'ThuleanFriend' posted, the site itself obviously has a strong US policy-wonk bias, but I've noticed whenever Kofman's interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army 'on the verge of collapse' or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with 'I'm not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war' etc. Perhaps he's junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don't speak Russian, so I'd take their statements with a grain of salt. What Kofman has been saying sounds a lot closer to Yuri Podolyaka (scrubbed from Youtube a few weeks ago) or Strelkov's assessments, neither of which could ever be accused of being pro-Ukrainian goverment.

    You mentioned he's quite reluctant to do any broader geopolitical or diplomatic analysis, but I'd say he's simply careful to stay within his field of expertise, and ultimately Russian-Ukrainian battlefield performance will largely determine what political decisions will be made anyway.

    Responding to utu's post from previous thread before the usual arguments and rhetoric on Z-War do their rounds.

    Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.
     
    I'm not exactly alone in finding Lawrence a poor writer, nothing to do with with 'wartime thinking' here. Kangaroo and Chatterly are particularly and impressively bad. As for the genre or topic, no need to dig very deep, Russia has Lermontov, Bunin, Chekhov, Turgenev, Yesenin and Tolstoy wrote about relations between men and women, the various stages of a relationship, and in various psychological forms, with a power and/or subtlety I don't see matched any English writer I know of. At least not sentimental novels of Hardy or formalism of Meredith and Henry James. Austen basically wrote light comedy of manners and is something else entirely. Perhaps Fitzgerald if not for his alcoholism and self-pity or Salinger if he was interested.

    @German_Reader


    For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
    But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.
     
    Perhaps. Though that German had prefaced that with a conversation about Russia, he had complicated feelings about the country, as Germans often do. Also went on he was pissed about all the immigrants in 2015 and how he voted AFD because of that, it was too obviously sincere to be ironic. Anyway, 'humourless' might be harsh, be I meant more about a general outlook on life, rather than getting a particular joke. Even some (most?) genuinely talented comedians can be rather humourless away from the stage, performers who see all of life as a joke like Norm Macdonald are pretty rare.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Wokechoke

  7. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    a belated Happy Easter to all!

    A belated happy Easter to you sir!

    You left out the Chechen performance art. The meme warfare could use some more attention.

    I recently came across the following and recommend it:

    The History of Esotericism in Soviet Russia in the 1920s–1930s
    Konstantin Burmistrov

    (No internet link but I downloaded it free via academia.)

  8. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    By “demons” do you mean the innocent civilians that have perished or had their homes destroyed by “liberators” from the North country? Are you familiar with the other “Russian nationalist” that now has his own blog here at UNZ, Rolo Slavskyi? He seems to be the only Russian nationalist that makes even the smallest modicum of sense from all the rest of the kremlin stooges that flock to UNZ. Boiling down their input they all begin to sound tediously similar to the output of your own hand picked successor at this blog, Gerard. He (Slavskyi) seems to understand a few things and is sharing these ideas and questions here:

    Well, tens of thousands of Ukrainians, who by all rights ought to be pointing their rifles at NATO, are now hunkered down in Donbass instead, and about to be shelled repeatedly into surrender or oblivion by the Russian forces…And even now, the Kremlin and its loathsome PR spokespeople claim that they are only in Ukraine temporarily, to conduct a de-nazification campaign. Not only is this claim bizarre, but what’s worse, people think they might actually mean it. So, after smashing the Ukrainian army and the volunteer battalions, they intend to do what — pull out?… Why then should anyone in Ukraine support the Russian army? So that they can receive a bullet to the head for being collaborators once they’re gone? No wonder Ukrainians are hunkering down and keeping quiet. Why support a military that won’t be there to protect you once they’ve won? After all, genius strategic feint or not, Kiev and the environs around it were abandoned.

    https://www.unz.com/article/the-ukraine-debacle/

    Of course I differ with a lot of his views. But on some things he seems to get it right. Do you think that it’s a good idea to continue pummeling civilian areas in Eastern Ukraine where there are a preponderance of Russian speakers? Apparently, God-Man Putler does….

  9. @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    If it were a “total slaughter” one would expect Russia to gain more than a handful of villages while losing a few at the same time.

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment in the failed attempt to take Kiev and the North and has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West. So now Russia is steadily and slowly advancing in the southeast while bleeding men and equipment which become of progressively worse quality as the war drags on. At some point it will all ground to a halt, the question is where and if Ukraine can regain lands (and how many) after Russia exhausts itself.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Anatoly Karlin

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment

    ASBMil is admittedly a pro-Russian telegram account, but they tend to be fair in their analysis IMO, and they are admitting that a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct. In addition, Russia disproportionately used its worst equipment early on (lots of T-72, few T-90s). That is slowly changing.

    https://t.me/asbmil/1271
    https://t.me/asbmil/1272

    has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.

    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don’t think it will be enough to tip the balance. I won’t be boring and claim I’m at equivalent distance between Kofman and Ritter. I still think Ritter is more right and I still think Russia will bring this to a close on favourable terms, but it will be tougher than many assume (I include myself in that group).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Thulean Friend


    a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct.
     
    Lots were, they were also expecting a quick occupation and sent in Rosgvardia and military police who were slaughtered.

    But they also sent in and lost many elite paratroopers.

    "has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West."

    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don’t think it will be enough to tip the balance.
     
    It depends on what Russia does. Full mobilization and over a million soldiers? Yes, it won't be enough.

    But what Russia has now (current troops, plus a new batch of regularly scheduled conscripts/recruits)? It should be.
  10. A123 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    It really looks like more of a middle case. Neither the Ukie nor Russian maximalists are doing well.
    ___

    If Russia had the capability, launching “Shock & Awe” on Kiev or an adjacent target would have been sensible to break Ukrainian resistance. That they could not do so, points at a serious weakness. The plan for Northern front did not work.

    Realigning to a more compact Eastward facing, provides infantry flanking cover that substantially reduces NLAW risk. It will allow consolidation of Kherson, Kherkiv, Mariupol, and a more or less North/South demarcation line. However, the density required for force protection does not allow the maximalist goal of taking effectively all of Ukraine.
    ____

    On the other side:

    How will Ukrainian forces advance over open ground to recapture lost cities?

    They could not even “press” withdrawing forces departing the Kiev area. The idea of a coordinated “offensive” requiring armor and mechanized infantry does not appear to be available. Almost every Ukrainian win has been “small unit”. That is solid defense, but does not move the ball in the other direction.

    Despite the loss of the Moskva, freighter transit to/from Ukraine is effectively ‘nil’. If Ukraine can harvest enough grain to sell, how are they going to move it? A small portion can go to Poland by rail, but the large MENA buyers, like Egypt, are disconnected. As an effectively land locked country, Ukraine has an economic problem of epic scale.
    ______

    The best solution for Christian Russia and Christian Ukraine is an armistice. Neither side has a clear path to WIN. Both sides will experience a great deal of LOSE-LOSE grief while an accommodation remains out of reach.

    PEACE 😇

  11. Russia is quite determined to not lose, and the invisible line where they decide to halt the shellacking being administered by Ukraine with American assistance by means of a very big bang is surely getting closer to being crossed all the time. All animals (and a country is a living thing) have a profound advantage on home territory. On the thermonuclear plan, Ukraine and America would cease to have an advantage. The former hasn’t got them and the latter would not use them. ..

    Putin’s actions indicate that he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia, so he will stop at nothing to avoid losing. If Russia began using nuclear weapons on the battlefields of Ukraine it would be because Russia was about to lose the conventional war in Ukraine. You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them. Is America going take a step into the unknown for the very highest of stakes over Ukraine?

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine, yet Putin at the begining denied he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia. He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean


    the latter would not use them...
     
    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind. A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes. Any misjudgment or errors in EWS may trigger the US.

    he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia
     
    It is only a threat to his imperial ambitions - Ukraine has not tried irredentism on Russian soil yet, a more nationalist government might, and even then it would not be existential. Only after the US attacks Russian assets anywhere, and Russia is in the same phase as Germany and Japan were in 1945, would it be existential for Putin's regime.

    (Tho I'd say what an occupational administration could do would damage Russians as a people, but Central Asian and Caucasian guest workers settle en masse in Russia before the war, too)

    You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them.
     
    The main purpose of nuclear weapons is (the threat of) annihilation.

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine
     
    Driving Russia to behind the borders recognized by the US and EU at least.

    he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia
     
    Russian troops will face off the NATO military in the unlikely case that an invasion is necessary for NATO, for a brutal way of regime change. Putin will reach for the cheget and express Hitler's suicidal urge by striking Washington DC, in the final application of Eye for Eye, Tooth for Tooth.

    He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.
     
    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    China probably saw the war coming and did the best to hide it, and they dare not to come out and openly support Russia. But they probably don't foresee nukes actually flying, only the threats.

    Replies: @Sean

    , @HuggyBear
    @Sean

    The analysis is good but does not recognize one fundamental issue to the ongoing conflict.
    That of the covert and internal battle between the American "Deep State" and the Patriots.

    Putin is banking on the evidence he has tabled, so far refused by the UN, of the corruption, degradation, and War Crimes that have been going on in Ukraine such as the US Taxpayer-funded Biolabs ( at least 13 ) not to mention the people trafficking, and Satanic activities of the Khazarian Mafia. ( KM )
    This KM is under attack and Public Opinion is beginning to recognize the crimes against Humanity that they have engineered. The "Laptop from Hell" is another example of the Biden crime family along with the Neocon PNAC Strategy that destroyed wealthy and rising countries in the Middle East.
    If , as Kash Patel's Devolution theory suggests, we are engaged in a Military Sting operation to unpick and destroy the KM activists embedded traitorously in the Washington Consensus, then Putin does not necessarily need to win or prolong the "military intervention" in the Ukraine as it should become increasingly obvious that Russia has the Moral Highground - as Lavrov has always eloquently maintained.

    We await the renewal of the Worldview of the Western Masses and the unseating of the KM - after which there will no longer be any reason for Orthodox Christian brothers to be killing each other in this contrived Theatre.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Sean, @Emil Nikola Richard

  12. @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    If it were a “total slaughter” one would expect Russia to gain more than a handful of villages while losing a few at the same time.

    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment in the failed attempt to take Kiev and the North and has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West. So now Russia is steadily and slowly advancing in the southeast while bleeding men and equipment which become of progressively worse quality as the war drags on. At some point it will all ground to a halt, the question is where and if Ukraine can regain lands (and how many) after Russia exhausts itself.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Anatoly Karlin

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you’d need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.
     
    Isn't Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it's hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn't actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting 'Special Military Operation' was totally bungled in it's opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don't forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you'd see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he's inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don't think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim... unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he's too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin's 'Family' got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sudden death, @Sean

    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW)
     
    Do you have any evidence that Ukraine has lost 70,000 troops (which would mean about 25k killed)? My evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but it doesn't seem that high (I would have heard of more deaths/injuries I think). Ukraine probably has about 300,000 troops at the moment so that means 1 in 4 have already been killed or wounded. Doesn't seem realistic.

    The military expert commenter Twinkie estimated about 8,000 Russian KIA a couple of weeks ago so it would be 10k or so by now:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283111

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283351

    :::::::::::::::::::

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don't see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Wielgus
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The Red Army in WW2 tended to expend lives quite extravagantly, but perhaps it had to and it could be regarded as a sign of desperation on their part that the Ukrainians tend to be more "based and glorious".
    From 1943 onwards, no longer able to boast of territorial gains, the Nazi press like the Völkischer Beobachter went with headlines like "More bloody losses for the Bolsheviks". The Red Army was advancing but at a cost.

  13. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.
     
    Putin should have sent in 800,000 properly equipped troops then!

    But I get your point. 95% of people thought that Russia would roll it. Including the Russian government, as any honest military observer can tell from their movements, also so did the US and EU intelligence agencies, and most educated commenters.

    Unfortunately for Russia, the remaining 5% included the Ukrainians, who kept getting forgotten about in the lead-up to this war, by both sides, and are even frequently forgotten about a lot now by commenters here.

    Whoever would have guessed that Eastern Slavs, fighting for their homeland, would make formidable and intelligent fighters?

    Also, a test for the honesty, or at least baseline competence, of a pro-Russian observer, is whether they deny the absolute obvious: that Putin thought it would be a cakewalk and that the convoy to Kyiv would essentially be a victory column as the other Russian forces smashed the Ukrainian army in the field. Deny that, and you're a shill or an idiot. I respect that you don't. And those who do, don't even make good propagandists. Anyone who is not in their bubble just thinks they're insane.

    predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress)
     
    I no longer think this is likely. This war has changed things. China can't go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much. And it seems like no one would join them in their bloc. Xi can crush the cosmopolitan types, but they'll be a majority if China gets actually rich, and they'll also be the people most other Chinese aspire to be. Imagine the West, but without the immigrants, and how ridiculously SWPL it would turn out.

    And if China doesn't make it to proper high developed status, then a bifurcation is even worse for them and so even more unlikely.

    the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos
     
    I really liked his observation that black Americans are the connoisseur class among Americans, but I think it should be refined to the observation that white Americans have made black Americans a blank screen onto which to project their collective inner child. The child should enjoy presents, be emotionally expressive and generally not be treated too harshly, or have responsibility expected of them. So black Americans then!

    Russia will almost certainly win regardless
     
    Since Russia is still far from winning, it is extremely unlikely that they are going to win. The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don't see how the trend can be reversed. Russia can learn and adapt in the field, but so can Ukraine, and Ukraine now has more troops, quicker swelling numbers and better supply than Russia.

    I just don't see what Russia can do to affect this horrible calculation. Only fighting in the Donbas was good, but not enough. Even full mobilisation is too late.

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!
     
    Happy Easter! Whatever happens, everything will get better. No one ever really dies, even though every death is a tragedy. On a timeline of eternity, we should all be hopeful.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much.

    Some rootless coastal cosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    There will be no dawn for them.

    The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed.

    This is almost certainly incorrect, but the truth of the matter should become clear sooner rather than later.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Some rootless coastalcosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.
     
    Xi is destroying the legitimacy of his rule in China's second most important city and one that has its smartest people and retains its most cultural capital in order to do some "repressing?"

    Sorry, I don't buy it. That would be bizarrely stupid.

    It seems likely that instead Xi really believes in Zero Covid and is trying to maintain it. His problem though is much like Putin's problem in Ukraine, the longer he continues his effort before he inevitably gives up or realit forces him to give up, the biggest the humiliation for him.

    Now, this should therefore be an easy problem to solve. Just give up immediately. But, psychologically, since giving up today results in worse outcomes than having given up yesterday, this can prove impossibe. It feels like too much of a loss. So the face saving cultures just double down on failure instead.

    And then suddenly, a few months into their effort, they find themselves in shock and disbelief about how they got into such a mess, despite starting with so few problems. And people begin to ask themselves, what was the point?

    And maybe they continue doubling down for years and completely annihilate themselves, just to never have to admit that they were wrong. Or maybe they have a moment of clarity and give up and salvage what they can.

    Xi is at the beginning of his journey in this regard. His test of character will be in whether he gives up on Zero Covid in the next month or two, or not.

    Putin is in the middle of his journey and he has likely already failed his test of character. He has maybe a week or two where he might be able to salavage anything at all. Russian propaganda is extremely strong. They seem to be able to sell their idiots anything, but there does need to be at least some small semblance of reality, I assume.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  14. S says:

    @ Yellowface Anon

    Russia uses Dugin’s playbook…

    Dugin’s geo-political thesis of land based powers (ie ‘continental’ Russia) being superior to ocean based (ie ‘Atlanticist’ US/UK) is almost a word for word repeat of what appeared in the mid-19th century New Rome which I’ve excerpted below, except he has completely inverted it. So close is the language, I’m tempted to think he may have read the obscure book first before coming up with his own theories.

    Past history would seem to go against Dugin, ie the defeat of land based Napoleon, Hitler, Jefferson Davis, by the Atlanticists UK and, or, US.

    It should be noted in the excerpt below from The New Rome, that while domination of the seas is considered very nice, domination of the air is seen to be far better still.

    ‘Freedom is now limited to the oceanic world, to England and America; Russia, with its continental dependencies, is despotic; it has no ships, and therefore no freedom; no freedom, and therefore no navy; having no navy, it can never do great injury to the seafaring world. But its despotism gives it an army, and its army will protect its despotism. The seafaring nations, on the other hand, have their navy to protect their freedom, but they will never have a large standing army to extend their system. To suppose this, would be to deny every leading characteristic of Americanism. This would keep the two halves of the world in a state of perpetual isolation, did not the navigation of the air restore them to a common element. American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons — to use our own expressive slang — “like a parcel of bricks”; and the Russian serfs will fasten to their skirts, and be elevated to a share in their liberties.’ The New Rome (1853) – pg 156

    Dugin has purportedly advocated for the message contained in the The Third Empire published in 2006 (see excerpt and link below) regarding a future resurrected imperial Russia, going so far as to say it is an idea that Russia should ‘die for’.

    Indeed!

    As I’ve hypothesized, and something I certainly don’t wish for, there is a possibility that the intent of the New Rome (the US/UK and Western allies) and the Third Rome (Russia and it’s allies) fighting each other in WWIII, is rather than one or the other prevailing, is that they are instead intended to largely destroy each other. This would fit in well with reducing the world’s population to the long declared and preferred 500 million number.

    The destruction of the New Rome and Third Rome (ie Rome’s modern Western and Eastern heirs) could also be seen by some powerful elements of the elites of the Jewish people and their hangers on as a perceived symbolic (and not so symbolic) revenge for the destruction of Jerusalem and its Temple in 70 AD by the original Rome.
    The Arch of Titus

    The Third Empire

    “Just a couple of months ago, a former vice-chancellor of the Russian Duma Mikhail Yuryev published a best-selling novel “The Third Empire.” (…) The present advisor to president Putin, Alexander Dugin, states on the back-cover of the book: ‘This is Russia that one should kill and die for’.

    The bottom two links are to the 1853 map of the United States as the ‘New Rome’ and the hypothesized 2053 map of Russia as the ‘Third Empire’, as they appeared respectively in The New Rome (1853) and The Third Empire (2006).

    Below ‘More’ are examples of Roman commemorative coins minted for 25 years after the fall of Jerusalem and the destruction of the Jewish Temple in 70 AD. They are labeled ‘Judea Capta’ (Judea is Conquered) and ‘Judea Devicta’ (Judea is defeated).

  15. @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I’m about 10 mins into Ritter and it’s the usual “this is a total slaughter, it’s not even a fair fight anymore”.

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images.
     
    Thanks, I'll listen to it a little later today.

    I don't have any solid military expertise and I haven't spent a lot of time trying to follow the details of the conflict, but I'd probably lean strongly towards Ritter's version. Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he's a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who's spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he'd have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    One advantage of judging rival claims about who's winning a war is that there's a very objective reality that will probably become pretty apparent sooner rather than later. It's not like arguing about what global temperatures will be in 2070.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.

    I’ve since listened to a couple of his interviews now at that link ‘ThuleanFriend’ posted, the site itself obviously has a strong US policy-wonk bias, but I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc. Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt. What Kofman has been saying sounds a lot closer to Yuri Podolyaka (scrubbed from Youtube a few weeks ago) or Strelkov’s assessments, neither of which could ever be accused of being pro-Ukrainian goverment.

    You mentioned he’s quite reluctant to do any broader geopolitical or diplomatic analysis, but I’d say he’s simply careful to stay within his field of expertise, and ultimately Russian-Ukrainian battlefield performance will largely determine what political decisions will be made anyway.

    Responding to utu’s post from previous thread before the usual arguments and rhetoric on Z-War do their rounds.

    Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.

    I’m not exactly alone in finding Lawrence a poor writer, nothing to do with with ‘wartime thinking’ here. Kangaroo and Chatterly are particularly and impressively bad. As for the genre or topic, no need to dig very deep, Russia has Lermontov, Bunin, Chekhov, Turgenev, Yesenin and Tolstoy wrote about relations between men and women, the various stages of a relationship, and in various psychological forms, with a power and/or subtlety I don’t see matched any English writer I know of. At least not sentimental novels of Hardy or formalism of Meredith and Henry James. Austen basically wrote light comedy of manners and is something else entirely. Perhaps Fitzgerald if not for his alcoholism and self-pity or Salinger if he was interested.

    @German_Reader

    For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
    But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.

    Perhaps. Though that German had prefaced that with a conversation about Russia, he had complicated feelings about the country, as Germans often do. Also went on he was pissed about all the immigrants in 2015 and how he voted AFD because of that, it was too obviously sincere to be ironic. Anyway, ‘humourless’ might be harsh, be I meant more about a general outlook on life, rather than getting a particular joke. Even some (most?) genuinely talented comedians can be rather humourless away from the stage, performers who see all of life as a joke like Norm Macdonald are pretty rare.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc.
     
    Sure, like I said Kofman came across as a very level-headed guy trying to be as objective as possible given his constraints. The problem is I strongly suspect that his DC constraints are pretty severe, so it's easy to imagine that he's consciously or unconsciously trimming his views as a consequence, for example not questioning certain sources of information that are widely believed by everyone in his professional circle or that sort of thing. I remember this happened during the lead-up to the Iraq War, and I think the political atmosphere was much less extreme back then.

    Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt.
     
    Absolutely. Ritter's far too emotional about all sorts of things, but don't forget that his career was destroyed by the Neocons, and until this issue suddenly popped up, he'd almost disappeared from public attention. He's just horrified that America is almost doing an Iraq War II but on a vastly larger scale. Mearsheimer is also fairly emotional, though in a different way. He'd been totally purged but now he's suddenly become one of the most visible academics on the planet, with something like 40 million views of his lectures, and unsurprisingly he seems extremely happy about his new situation.

    Also, Ritter had actually trained as a Soviet military specialist and been based in Russia doing arms control, so I do think he speaks at least some Russian and his Russia military expertise is probably much stronger than I'd originally assumed.

    Replies: @Matra

    , @Wokechoke
    @Yevardian

    Waugh is consistently good. A Handful of Dust is an underrated book in his catalog. Sword of Honour series is also remarkable when you get to Yugoslavia.

    One other note worthy is Waugh in Abyssinia. An account of the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. the last time the Fascist idea of colonizing Africa with white settlers was hip. He rarely wrote a bad line.

  16. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    Rather conveniently forgot to mention your proposed own predictions and Putler’s alleged plans about greatly increasing RF population power, while for now it is EU that already got the boost of about 5 million working age european christian people from all UA, but their elder parents were mostly left in captured lands and fight zones.

  17. @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.
     
    I've since listened to a couple of his interviews now at that link 'ThuleanFriend' posted, the site itself obviously has a strong US policy-wonk bias, but I've noticed whenever Kofman's interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army 'on the verge of collapse' or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with 'I'm not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war' etc. Perhaps he's junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don't speak Russian, so I'd take their statements with a grain of salt. What Kofman has been saying sounds a lot closer to Yuri Podolyaka (scrubbed from Youtube a few weeks ago) or Strelkov's assessments, neither of which could ever be accused of being pro-Ukrainian goverment.

    You mentioned he's quite reluctant to do any broader geopolitical or diplomatic analysis, but I'd say he's simply careful to stay within his field of expertise, and ultimately Russian-Ukrainian battlefield performance will largely determine what political decisions will be made anyway.

    Responding to utu's post from previous thread before the usual arguments and rhetoric on Z-War do their rounds.

    Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.
     
    I'm not exactly alone in finding Lawrence a poor writer, nothing to do with with 'wartime thinking' here. Kangaroo and Chatterly are particularly and impressively bad. As for the genre or topic, no need to dig very deep, Russia has Lermontov, Bunin, Chekhov, Turgenev, Yesenin and Tolstoy wrote about relations between men and women, the various stages of a relationship, and in various psychological forms, with a power and/or subtlety I don't see matched any English writer I know of. At least not sentimental novels of Hardy or formalism of Meredith and Henry James. Austen basically wrote light comedy of manners and is something else entirely. Perhaps Fitzgerald if not for his alcoholism and self-pity or Salinger if he was interested.

    @German_Reader


    For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
    But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.
     
    Perhaps. Though that German had prefaced that with a conversation about Russia, he had complicated feelings about the country, as Germans often do. Also went on he was pissed about all the immigrants in 2015 and how he voted AFD because of that, it was too obviously sincere to be ironic. Anyway, 'humourless' might be harsh, be I meant more about a general outlook on life, rather than getting a particular joke. Even some (most?) genuinely talented comedians can be rather humourless away from the stage, performers who see all of life as a joke like Norm Macdonald are pretty rare.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Wokechoke

    I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc.

    Sure, like I said Kofman came across as a very level-headed guy trying to be as objective as possible given his constraints. The problem is I strongly suspect that his DC constraints are pretty severe, so it’s easy to imagine that he’s consciously or unconsciously trimming his views as a consequence, for example not questioning certain sources of information that are widely believed by everyone in his professional circle or that sort of thing. I remember this happened during the lead-up to the Iraq War, and I think the political atmosphere was much less extreme back then.

    Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt.

    Absolutely. Ritter’s far too emotional about all sorts of things, but don’t forget that his career was destroyed by the Neocons, and until this issue suddenly popped up, he’d almost disappeared from public attention. He’s just horrified that America is almost doing an Iraq War II but on a vastly larger scale. Mearsheimer is also fairly emotional, though in a different way. He’d been totally purged but now he’s suddenly become one of the most visible academics on the planet, with something like 40 million views of his lectures, and unsurprisingly he seems extremely happy about his new situation.

    Also, Ritter had actually trained as a Soviet military specialist and been based in Russia doing arms control, so I do think he speaks at least some Russian and his Russia military expertise is probably much stronger than I’d originally assumed.

    • Replies: @Matra
    @Ron Unz

    A month or so before the war Kofman pointed out that Edward Luttwak and others who dismissed the possibility of war are going to have egg on their faces. His arguments were the main reason I also thought there'd be a war. That said, he strikes me as being a bit inflexible in his thinking. Once he makes a prediction he doubles, triples down, and comes across as though he's more interested in confirming his predictions rather than reconsidering them in light of new facts.

    On Mearsheimer I'm surprised there wasn't more of an effort to get him 'cancelled'. When that 'leading Ukraine down the primrose path' video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began. I'm sure there are bitter elements in the US mediasphere who have unfinished business with him over that book he wrote with Stephen Walt.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Ron Unz

  18. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It's a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine's mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517906770659790848

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you'd need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AP, @Wielgus

    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    Isn’t Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it’s hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn’t actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting ‘Special Military Operation’ was totally bungled in it’s opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don’t forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you’d see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he’s inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don’t think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim… unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin’s ‘Family’ got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it's 3:1 or better in Russia's favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine's by two orders of magnitude).

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1518020190977642498

    Donbass isn't Kiev. Pace of advance is slow ("snail's war") not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can't harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it's at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There's no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html


    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России - на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало - на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.
     
    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mikhail, @Wielgus

    , @sudden death
    @Yevardian


    Why hasn’t actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done?
     
    Quite likely being a chekist Putin simply fears having too large of a military - just look at his mindset when called UA military to overthrow Zelensky, no much doubt he views his own army of potentially being capable to do the same.

    Mobilization means not only expansion of common infantry, leading cadre numbers will also have to increase, while prechecking of loyalty and controls cannot be easily achieved in a haste of war.

    , @Sean
    @Yevardian


    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures.
     
    Vietnam almost tore America apart because it was fought with drafted soldiers. Half a million was not enough to win there and would not be in Ukraine,

    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin’s ‘Family’ got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.
     
    I have Stuermer's book on Putin. It was Yeltsin who appointed Putin as his successor, and in my opinion it was probably a act of vengeance by Yeltsin against the US for Nato expansion (the Americans were aghast at the former KGB officer). However, the Chechen apartment block terrorist attacks were what made Putin electable.

    I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
     
    I agree the leadership felt they had to launch this war because Ukraine was an existential threat, the proof of that is they acted on the belief. Nato do not want Russia to see it as an existential threat because in that case Russia will certainly be willing to take the war to a higher and unknown plane. There is no experience or theory to help Western strategists comprehend the likelihood of Putin going full battlefield thermonuclear, od what might follow a first use by Russia of nuclear weapon(s) on battlefields in Ukraine. Because Ukraine is so dependent on the US, and it will supply advanced offensive weapons only in the last extremity, Ukraine will try and convince America that Russia is heading for victory, thereby leading to a deluge of US weapons on Ukraine, and the Russian army in Ukraine getting seven bells knocked out it before being driven back.
  19. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    Christ is Risen!

  20. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.
     
    Isn't Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it's hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn't actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting 'Special Military Operation' was totally bungled in it's opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don't forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you'd see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he's inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don't think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim... unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he's too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin's 'Family' got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sudden death, @Sean

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it’s 3:1 or better in Russia’s favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine’s by two orders of magnitude).

    Donbass isn’t Kiev. Pace of advance is slow (“snail’s war”) not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can’t harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it’s at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There’s no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html

    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России – на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало – на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.

    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Anatoly Karlin

    America is using WW2 following from Munich as the mode, so Ukraine will get stronger unless something is done to make the US take fright. Russia is not going to gain at the by a long lasting convention level of the Ukrainian conflict The only advantage to Russia of it lasting until 2023 is the Ukrainians governments ban on the sale of alcohol for the duration might begin to weaken the Ukrainian government's popularity it like it did in Russia when Tsar Nicholas II banned vodka sales for the duration of World War I,

    , @Mikhail
    @Anatoly Karlin


    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.
     
    What territory will this Novorossiya constitute? Only everything east of the Dnieper?
    , @Wielgus
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYyeHjN9tGg
    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera "I tak i proidut" ("And that's how they'll go") but Russian is a second language for me so I may be wrong.

    Replies: @S

  21. Milk cows have been bred to produce substantially more milk than an aurochs would. 10x as much would be a fair guess, as that is about the variance between cattle breeds.

    Meanwhile, captive poisonous snakes used in anti-venom production have already been bred to produce 5x, 6x, or 7x the venom of wild snakes. Perhaps, more, in some localities. (though it is in dispute, as some say it is not a genetic change, but due to the regular milking)

  22. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.
     
    Isn't Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it's hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn't actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting 'Special Military Operation' was totally bungled in it's opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don't forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you'd see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he's inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don't think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim... unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he's too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin's 'Family' got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sudden death, @Sean

    Why hasn’t actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done?

    Quite likely being a chekist Putin simply fears having too large of a military – just look at his mindset when called UA military to overthrow Zelensky, no much doubt he views his own army of potentially being capable to do the same.

    Mobilization means not only expansion of common infantry, leading cadre numbers will also have to increase, while prechecking of loyalty and controls cannot be easily achieved in a haste of war.

  23. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It’s a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.
     
    Isn't Russia similarly constrained? It has the same 1990s demographic legacy as Ukraine, and it's hardly a stranger to skilled emigration either. Why hasn't actual war been declared so proper mobilisation can done? It honestly seems to me Putin sees the political cost of admitting 'Special Military Operation' was totally bungled in it's opening stages is still too high.
    But at the moment it looks the worst of all possible worlds, full-spectrum sanctions, combined with still limited mobilisation, which since Ukraine put up a stiff fight, has forced Russia to a strategy of artillery obliteration of entire cities and general infrastructure (obviously eliminating any sliver of chance for Ukro-collaboration), due its lack of manpower and morale.

    Russia is hardly a totalitarian state either, don't forget the war is (by far) most popular amongst the demographics too old to serve anyway, if military necessity forces Putin to call for mass drafting, I think you'd see how unpopular this war could quickly get. If it was done earlier, (i.e. in February) the war might have finished quickly and decisively enough for it not to be an issue. But as usual Putin took half-measures like he does in everything, but now he's inadvertently taken a massive gamble, I really don't think things look good.

    Agree that taking just the Donbass and Luhansk, or even anything less than landlocking Ukraine would be phyrric victory at best for Russia, given the now piled up sanctions, war-deaths and diplomatic isolation, but from what I can see it seems the war-aims now have downshifted exclusively to the Donbass. Again, it looks grim... unlike Dmitry or others, I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.
    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he's too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin's 'Family' got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sudden death, @Sean

    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures.

    Vietnam almost tore America apart because it was fought with drafted soldiers. Half a million was not enough to win there and would not be in Ukraine,

    Putin expected a short victory expedition, but embroiled Russia into an existential struggle with the entire West.. and still he’s too cautious to take appropriate measures. Not a pleasant result for mild bureaucrat by nature who only took power because Yeltsin’s ‘Family’ got paranoid Primakov would investigate them and their criminal buddies if he got elected.

    I have Stuermer’s book on Putin. It was Yeltsin who appointed Putin as his successor, and in my opinion it was probably a act of vengeance by Yeltsin against the US for Nato expansion (the Americans were aghast at the former KGB officer). However, the Chechen apartment block terrorist attacks were what made Putin electable.

    I understand from a Russian POV they have to win this war, the event of loss or stalemate will basically destroy Russia as a state.

    I agree the leadership felt they had to launch this war because Ukraine was an existential threat, the proof of that is they acted on the belief. Nato do not want Russia to see it as an existential threat because in that case Russia will certainly be willing to take the war to a higher and unknown plane. There is no experience or theory to help Western strategists comprehend the likelihood of Putin going full battlefield thermonuclear, od what might follow a first use by Russia of nuclear weapon(s) on battlefields in Ukraine. Because Ukraine is so dependent on the US, and it will supply advanced offensive weapons only in the last extremity, Ukraine will try and convince America that Russia is heading for victory, thereby leading to a deluge of US weapons on Ukraine, and the Russian army in Ukraine getting seven bells knocked out it before being driven back.

  24. Watched part of a segment of DW, where they were doing man-on-the-street interviews in Berlin to get a response about sending heavy weapons to the Ukraine.

    Three quick interviews. Second one was an English-speaking African.

  25. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it's 3:1 or better in Russia's favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine's by two orders of magnitude).

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1518020190977642498

    Donbass isn't Kiev. Pace of advance is slow ("snail's war") not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can't harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it's at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There's no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html


    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России - на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало - на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.
     
    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mikhail, @Wielgus

    America is using WW2 following from Munich as the mode, so Ukraine will get stronger unless something is done to make the US take fright. Russia is not going to gain at the by a long lasting convention level of the Ukrainian conflict The only advantage to Russia of it lasting until 2023 is the Ukrainians governments ban on the sale of alcohol for the duration might begin to weaken the Ukrainian government’s popularity it like it did in Russia when Tsar Nicholas II banned vodka sales for the duration of World War I,

  26. Rejected!

    https://www.rt.com/russia/554640-moldova-transnistria-kiev-offer/

    Same thing happened with a Kiev regime overture to Georgia.

  27. @Thulean Friend
    @AP


    It seems that Russia is now doing what it should have been doing at the beginning, but from a worse point than at the beginning because it squandered a lot of its elite forces and equipment
     
    ASBMil is admittedly a pro-Russian telegram account, but they tend to be fair in their analysis IMO, and they are admitting that a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct. In addition, Russia disproportionately used its worst equipment early on (lots of T-72, few T-90s). That is slowly changing.

    https://t.me/asbmil/1271
    https://t.me/asbmil/1272


    has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.
     
    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don't think it will be enough to tip the balance. I won't be boring and claim I'm at equivalent distance between Kofman and Ritter. I still think Ritter is more right and I still think Russia will bring this to a close on favourable terms, but it will be tougher than many assume (I include myself in that group).

    Replies: @AP

    a lot of early Western reports of Russian troops being clueless conscripts was correct.

    Lots were, they were also expecting a quick occupation and sent in Rosgvardia and military police who were slaughtered.

    But they also sent in and lost many elite paratroopers.

    “has given Ukraine 2 months to train reserves and accumulate weapons from the West.”

    Yes, I agree with this and this is also one of the arguments that Kofman made which was convincing to me. I just don’t think it will be enough to tip the balance.

    It depends on what Russia does. Full mobilization and over a million soldiers? Yes, it won’t be enough.

    But what Russia has now (current troops, plus a new batch of regularly scheduled conscripts/recruits)? It should be.

    • Agree: Yevardian
  28. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it's 3:1 or better in Russia's favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine's by two orders of magnitude).

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1518020190977642498

    Donbass isn't Kiev. Pace of advance is slow ("snail's war") not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can't harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it's at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There's no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html


    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России - на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало - на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.
     
    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mikhail, @Wielgus

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    What territory will this Novorossiya constitute? Only everything east of the Dnieper?

  29. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It's a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine's mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517906770659790848

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you'd need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AP, @Wielgus

    700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW)

    Do you have any evidence that Ukraine has lost 70,000 troops (which would mean about 25k killed)? My evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but it doesn’t seem that high (I would have heard of more deaths/injuries I think). Ukraine probably has about 300,000 troops at the moment so that means 1 in 4 have already been killed or wounded. Doesn’t seem realistic.

    The military expert commenter Twinkie estimated about 8,000 Russian KIA a couple of weeks ago so it would be 10k or so by now:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283111

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283351

    :::::::::::::::::::

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).


    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.
     
    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Ron Unz, @AP

  30. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW)
     
    Do you have any evidence that Ukraine has lost 70,000 troops (which would mean about 25k killed)? My evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but it doesn't seem that high (I would have heard of more deaths/injuries I think). Ukraine probably has about 300,000 troops at the moment so that means 1 in 4 have already been killed or wounded. Doesn't seem realistic.

    The military expert commenter Twinkie estimated about 8,000 Russian KIA a couple of weeks ago so it would be 10k or so by now:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283111

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/bucha-more-like-the-ss-or-the-lapd/#comment-5283351

    :::::::::::::::::::

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don't see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).

    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.

    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country's entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don't know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.
     

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don't forget that at this point the West doesn't even need to pretend it's doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane 'friends' like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia's strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it's not as if they'll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    , @Ron Unz
    @Anatoly Karlin


    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine.
     
    Since you've obviously been following this conflict in great detail and prefer quantitative analysis and predictions, I'm curious what your estimate would be of current Russian KIAs.

    The claims I've seen made are enormously wide, ranging from seemingly ridiculous Ukrainian figures to the official totals last released by the Russian government a few weeks ago. Similarly, the commenters on this website have produced widely divergent estimates.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress).
     
    Ukraine had better combat effectiveness than Russia, around Kiev. Their infantry is better trained and better armed than the opposing Russian infantry, and there was enough cover that Russian air dominance wasn't a decisive factor. This would be true throughout western Ukraine and Kiev, and in urban areas like Kharkiv and Odessa and Dnipro. It does not apply to the southern plains. Donbas has a few hills but is also not conducive to infantry.

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1
     
    It may have even been better for Ukraine.

    In this war the Russian offenses around Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv failed and resulted in total withdrawal. Russia has been successful in the less urban South (the grabbed most of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts but stopped at the city of Mikolayiv and did not try to seize Zaporizhia itself) and in the Donbas where they are making slow but steady progress. So overall due to the withdrawal in the north, Russia controls about half the total territory now that it did 3 weeks into the war.

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Anatoliy-Nijnik/publication/258383304/figure/fig2/AS:324937035337728@1454482434973/Forestry-zoning-of-Ukraine-Source-adapted-from-39-and-the-records-of-the-National.png

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Topographic_map_of_Ukraine.svg/1280px-Topographic_map_of_Ukraine.svg.png

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter
     
    https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1509869533762408450

    Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    That's certainly how it seems to be now, but thinking that this is how it is going to go long-term assumes that Ukrainians will not find a way to adjust and will fight the same way week after week, conveniently taking casualties at a great disadvantage. They may, but usually in war adjustments are made.

    Replies: @A123

  31. • Replies: @Yevardian
    @sher singh

    What's your point? My family just didn't have the time the insular, gossipy, resentful and backbiting nature of western emigre communities, they (regretfully) didn't see any bright future in the post-USSR world and wanted us to assimilate successfully.
    That doesn't mean you can't speak your language and take pride in your history and culture at home (there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered), but when you move to another country, you adapt to the place that hosted you, not like some typical ungrateful Indian leftist weed whining about colonialism and racism (or in your case, maliciously enjoying the destruction of your host, like some parasite) whilst living better than you ever could at home.
    Thanks for reminding me why I can't stand Indians, it was starting to fade since I got away from seeing them everyday.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel

  32. Among the highlights, Biden’s weltanschauung, the possible ramification of a hypothetical 2024 Republican administration and the faulty Kiev regime narrative.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/28042022-us-options-on-russia-ukraine-oped/

  33. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win – though so did most people

    Why are you lying?

    You said “days not weeks” in one tweet and in another said “hours”…

  34. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).


    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.
     
    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Ron Unz, @AP

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country’s entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don’t know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don’t forget that at this point the West doesn’t even need to pretend it’s doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia’s strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it’s not as if they’ll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

    , @songbird
    @Yevardian


    Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran
     
    I'm no expert on the Middle East, but it is hard for me to see Iran as a straw blowing in the wind. They've been under US sanctions, longer than most people here (as I presume) have been alive, which I think reflects on the power structures of both countries.

    If the EU needs more oil from Iran, then, IMO, they're probably going to need to buy it, anyway, without strong-arming it. Or they may go back to Russia. But according to Zeihan, Russia's capacity to pump is going to breakdown due to cold weather and backpressure, due to lack of demand, and the EU is fucked, if they change their minds too late.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Yevardian

    “Scientific notation for GOOGLES of rubles required” to make “billions of dollars” of repairs in the ukraine? How transparent and disingenuous. You’re attempting to imply that it takes thousands of rubles to buy one mighty dollar.

    Laughable even given the value of the ruble at its low. Even more laughable now, given that the ruble has surged from its low around 140 to the dollar, to the high sixties per dollar, in just the past two months.

    Russians are in the right this time; they did what they had to, with far fewer civilian casualties than the US military would have inflicted based on their behavior in recent decades.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  35. I disagree with Denmark’s policies in a lot of ways, but, based on the current low standards within the West, they are pretty impressive. Current plans are to open up a jail in Kosovo to house criminal migrants, before deporting them.

    Is there any way that Sweden or Germany can be placed into receivership, and ruled by the Danes? At a bare minimum, Schleswig-Holstein should be given back to them. In time, perhaps, they could takeover Hamburg, and remediate it, by deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird


    deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical
     
    We might get to the point in decades when North Africa will be on the same functionality as Europe if not more, and emigration southwards happen voluntarily, similar to how Northern Europeans were moving to Spain and Portugal before the Eurozone crisis. But North Africa is also migrant exporter to Southern Europe to and you prefer racialism.

    Replies: @songbird

  36. @sher singh
    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/916139474969329705/968715124615549049/unknown.png

    Replies: @Yevardian

    What’s your point? My family just didn’t have the time the insular, gossipy, resentful and backbiting nature of western emigre communities, they (regretfully) didn’t see any bright future in the post-USSR world and wanted us to assimilate successfully.
    That doesn’t mean you can’t speak your language and take pride in your history and culture at home (there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered), but when you move to another country, you adapt to the place that hosted you, not like some typical ungrateful Indian leftist weed whining about colonialism and racism (or in your case, maliciously enjoying the destruction of your host, like some parasite) whilst living better than you ever could at home.
    Thanks for reminding me why I can’t stand Indians, it was starting to fade since I got away from seeing them everyday.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Yevardian

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
    Assimilating is gay instead you should carry swords & lift weights.

    True pride is expressed in the street, you're a literal shit on the sidewalk||
    Maybe an Indian left you there?

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @silviosilver

    , @Mikel
    @Yevardian


    there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered
     
    You have a point, certainly, but life is complicated. I have 3 children with 3 different women and that is about the only thing I have in common with Trump so I try to do what I think is best for each of them, under their respective circumstances.

    The Basque language is not endangered these days anyway. It's survived for millennia under much worse circumstances. Some of its current problems actually stem from its recent growth. We used to have our beautiful dialects that made communication amongst us often difficult but that's how it had always been and we were happy enough. Then our experts half a century ago decided to create a Unified Basque ex novo and that is what people have been compulsorily taught at school in the past decades. Since most of them have an immigrant background and didn't learn Basque at home, modern Basque has become a rather rootless speech that lacks the old spontaneity and complexity of the dialects it is slowly replacing. Quite sad, I think, but perhaps Hochdeutsch, modern Hebrew and others had to go through such a period.
  37. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.

    He didn’t predict Trump’s election victory. He got that wrong as well:

    I spent the election roundup drinking at a London School of Economics student common room. I am pretty sure that I and the Russian student who invited me were the only Trump supporters there out of 30 or 40 people. This is not that surprising when one considers that Trump Derangement Syndrome is universal throughout Yurop and Britbongistan, and furthermore, that this was: (a) London; (b) millennials; (c) students; (d) at a pretty elite institution, which made for a quadruple whammy. It was all good though since I got to feel like the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg.

    Though I do regret not sticking to my guns and continuing to insist on a Trump victory as I had been doing a couple of months previously, I am nonetheless very happy to have been wrong. The bankers might not be so happy, but who cares.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/trump-train-converges-to-c/

    As recent as December 2021 (and probably also January) he denied Russia would invade Ukraine:

    He made his prediction in February when the Russian military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border was most noticeable. A lot of people at this time predicted an invasion when this happened – it was pretty obvious. So Karlin’s only successful prediction was the most obvious one, everything else he has gotten wrong but now lies about his incorrect predictions.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Guest2022

    Is this the ODS freak again? https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Oliver_D._Smith How is life going down in mom's basement?

    Here is my Metaculus record, assigning very high chances by January (Metaculus itself was way ahead of the curve itself):

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1493642676490616832

    Within two days, moreover:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1483104603319250944

    ***

    Thulean Fraud probably misremembered, I got 2016 wrong like most (but more right than most as default opinion was to not give Trump any chance at all).

    However, I did predict 2020 almost perfectly, calling all but two states and was off by just 0.4% points regarding the combined results of Biden and Trump. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/results-us-elections-2020-predictions/

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/us-elections-2020-predictions-tournament-kireev.png

    Virtually all my Corona predictions came to pass as well of course.

  38. Perhaps someone here can also explain Anatoly Karlin’s erratic change in views.

    He was a in 2016-2017* a Trump supporter, wore a MAGA hat and was pro-West to the extent he said he wanted to teach/spread American ‘alt-right’ ideology to Russian nationalists. Now though he is claiming to be anti-West on his social media.

    Is this because of the sanctions by US and most of Europe imposed on Russia?

    * He in fact supported and endorsed Trump as recent as 2020-
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/habbening-us-elections-2020/

  39. @Guest2022
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    He didn't predict Trump's election victory. He got that wrong as well:

    I spent the election roundup drinking at a London School of Economics student common room. I am pretty sure that I and the Russian student who invited me were the only Trump supporters there out of 30 or 40 people. This is not that surprising when one considers that Trump Derangement Syndrome is universal throughout Yurop and Britbongistan, and furthermore, that this was: (a) London; (b) millennials; (c) students; (d) at a pretty elite institution, which made for a quadruple whammy. It was all good though since I got to feel like the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg.

    Though I do regret not sticking to my guns and continuing to insist on a Trump victory as I had been doing a couple of months previously, I am nonetheless very happy to have been wrong. The bankers might not be so happy, but who cares.
     
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/trump-train-converges-to-c/

    As recent as December 2021 (and probably also January) he denied Russia would invade Ukraine:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1468659468544139271

    He made his prediction in February when the Russian military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border was most noticeable. A lot of people at this time predicted an invasion when this happened - it was pretty obvious. So Karlin's only successful prediction was the most obvious one, everything else he has gotten wrong but now lies about his incorrect predictions.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Is this the ODS freak again? https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Oliver_D._Smith How is life going down in mom’s basement?

    Here is my Metaculus record, assigning very high chances by January (Metaculus itself was way ahead of the curve itself):

    Within two days, moreover:

    ***

    Thulean Fraud probably misremembered, I got 2016 wrong like most (but more right than most as default opinion was to not give Trump any chance at all).

    However, I did predict 2020 almost perfectly, calling all but two states and was off by just 0.4% points regarding the combined results of Biden and Trump. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/results-us-elections-2020-predictions/

    Virtually all my Corona predictions came to pass as well of course.

  40. Perhaps someone here can also explain Anatoly Karlin’s erratic change in views.

    Why yes, it is.

    Imagine how pathetic a creature one must be to trawl into a blog I’m no longer even the author of within a few hours of me commenting here for the first time in more than a month.

    Granted given the entity in question looks like this I can understand why stalking me, Emil, and a few others is the highlight and passion of its stunted life…

  41. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country's entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don't know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.
     

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don't forget that at this point the West doesn't even need to pretend it's doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane 'friends' like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia's strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it's not as if they'll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    … was this war really worth it?

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia’s greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But “if” is the operative word here.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/The-Sunk-Cost-Fallacy.png

    , @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, I'd say it takes a certain amount of bravery to self-appoint for such a potential suicide mission, so good luck? I guess. Honestly to me all potential outcomes of this war look pretty awful.

    Anyway, I strongly disagree with your outlook at this point, but just to bury the hatchet, I don't think I did more than 'agree' with some post denouncing you for mocking those who had concerns that some shitty documentary could clearly appeal to pedophiles. I didn't agree with the post actually accused you of one, so I changed it.
    The other comment was more my opinion of discord userbase in general and wasn't directly targeted at you.

    Going to that Sinkh's post, and I don't mean this disparagingly, but you are kind of a poster-child for what happens when children grow up in a foreign land, but their parents (presumably, judging from your accent in English) aren't interested in assimilating. Certainly I would be far unhappier if my identity stemmed primarily from my unlucky country's ethnicity.
    Anyway, Our Benevolent Overlord is clearly keeping the door open for you, it's really up to you if you want to resume blogging properly instead of wasting time on Twitter (matter of time before you're banned anyway), certainly a ton of major 'happenings' imminent.

    , @Beckow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Reputation is based on whether one understands what is going on - not on whether his wishes come true. This war is for all marbles and looks unstoppable - the post-war world will be so different that early expectations will seem like child's play. Both sides are committed, both sides are strong and have an almost endless way to escalate. It is impossible to predict a new world. Only fools can see what will happen clearly and they are hard to understand.

    Solano Lopez was a fascinating guy, the most interesting things about the catastrophic Paraguayan war against everybody was that after they lost 90% of their men, the society recovered within a generation - women were left mostly untouched and did their child-bearing roles by generously sharing the surviving men. It is a window into our deep past and an affirmation of the essential redundancy of most men. Maybe that's why Zelensky is grinding them down with no mercy, nobody needs them.

    I knew a girl from Paraguay who had a medallion with Lopez, she claimed he was revered because of his stubborn loyalty to his nation. The dead men were forgotten, the women looked towards the future, as always.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I was thinking something more along the line of Putin as star fleet commander and Azov Battalion as Klingons.

    , @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK,

    If you are to reenter with 4CHAN style artwork. May I suggest some additional options?

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRRFxaNXoAYCh68.jpg

     
    https://i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-25-at-8.12.32-PM.png

  42. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

  43. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country's entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don't know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.
     

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don't forget that at this point the West doesn't even need to pretend it's doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane 'friends' like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia's strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it's not as if they'll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran

    I’m no expert on the Middle East, but it is hard for me to see Iran as a straw blowing in the wind. They’ve been under US sanctions, longer than most people here (as I presume) have been alive, which I think reflects on the power structures of both countries.

    If the EU needs more oil from Iran, then, IMO, they’re probably going to need to buy it, anyway, without strong-arming it. Or they may go back to Russia. But according to Zeihan, Russia’s capacity to pump is going to breakdown due to cold weather and backpressure, due to lack of demand, and the EU is fucked, if they change their minds too late.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    The sanctions had been tolerable for Iran, much closer to the extent China is sanctioned now, and they could eek out decent growth until 2011/12, which is the year they were as extensively sanctioned as North Korea. Both facts show in the GDP numbers.

  44. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).


    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.
     
    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Ron Unz, @AP

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine.

    Since you’ve obviously been following this conflict in great detail and prefer quantitative analysis and predictions, I’m curious what your estimate would be of current Russian KIAs.

    The claims I’ve seen made are enormously wide, ranging from seemingly ridiculous Ukrainian figures to the official totals last released by the Russian government a few weeks ago. Similarly, the commenters on this website have produced widely divergent estimates.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Ron Unz

    7-10k Russians (inc. LDNR), 15-20k Ukrainians, vast uncertainty on both sides.

    As I noted, I think in the battles around Kiev it was 1:1 or thereabouts, but the current fighting in Donbass (and Kherson) is extremely loaded against the Ukrainians. Example: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7586


    Для примера: 39 бригада, штурмовавшая Сулиговку, имеет за всё время боевых действий пару десятков погибших и несколько десятков раненых, в то время, как только одна лишь 95 бригада ВСУ потеряла в боях с ними более 100 человек убитыми, находясь при этом в хорошо подготовленной обороне. А кроме 95 бригады, там же были разгромлены части 93 механизированной и 25 десантно-штурмовой бригад ВСУ.
     
    Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @prime noticer

  45. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

    Well, I’d say it takes a certain amount of bravery to self-appoint for such a potential suicide mission, so good luck? I guess. Honestly to me all potential outcomes of this war look pretty awful.

    Anyway, I strongly disagree with your outlook at this point, but just to bury the hatchet, I don’t think I did more than ‘agree’ with some post denouncing you for mocking those who had concerns that some shitty documentary could clearly appeal to pedophiles. I didn’t agree with the post actually accused you of one, so I changed it.
    The other comment was more my opinion of discord userbase in general and wasn’t directly targeted at you.

    Going to that Sinkh’s post, and I don’t mean this disparagingly, but you are kind of a poster-child for what happens when children grow up in a foreign land, but their parents (presumably, judging from your accent in English) aren’t interested in assimilating. Certainly I would be far unhappier if my identity stemmed primarily from my unlucky country’s ethnicity.
    Anyway, Our Benevolent Overlord is clearly keeping the door open for you, it’s really up to you if you want to resume blogging properly instead of wasting time on Twitter (matter of time before you’re banned anyway), certainly a ton of major ‘happenings’ imminent.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  46. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

    Reputation is based on whether one understands what is going on – not on whether his wishes come true. This war is for all marbles and looks unstoppable – the post-war world will be so different that early expectations will seem like child’s play. Both sides are committed, both sides are strong and have an almost endless way to escalate. It is impossible to predict a new world. Only fools can see what will happen clearly and they are hard to understand.

    Solano Lopez was a fascinating guy, the most interesting things about the catastrophic Paraguayan war against everybody was that after they lost 90% of their men, the society recovered within a generation – women were left mostly untouched and did their child-bearing roles by generously sharing the surviving men. It is a window into our deep past and an affirmation of the essential redundancy of most men. Maybe that’s why Zelensky is grinding them down with no mercy, nobody needs them.

    I knew a girl from Paraguay who had a medallion with Lopez, she claimed he was revered because of his stubborn loyalty to his nation. The dead men were forgotten, the women looked towards the future, as always.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    I expect to see Hunter Biden defending his investments in some bunker in Odessa by the end of this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlaRa5lsT_0

  47. 2/3 Kings and Generals…after losing all his his crack troops in Poltava, Charles of Sweden hides out in Moldavia in Ottoman custody…Sweden crumbles as a great power while Denmark, Russia and Prussia flex their powers. Peter builds a Navy and a Russian expeditionary force shows up in the North Sea chasing desperate Swedes.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Wokechoke

    Years later, while besieging a Danish fortress in Norway he received a fatal head wound. To this day it is unknown whether he was a victim of enemy fire, friendly fire or "fragging".

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  48. @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Kofman seems a level-headed fellow, but as far as I can tell he’s a Ukrainian immigrant and a relatively junior policy analyst, lacking any military background or Ph.D., who’s spent his entire career at DC thinktanks. The problem is that if the MSM and the donors are 100% on one side, he’d have enormous problems if he took a different position.
     
    I've since listened to a couple of his interviews now at that link 'ThuleanFriend' posted, the site itself obviously has a strong US policy-wonk bias, but I've noticed whenever Kofman's interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army 'on the verge of collapse' or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with 'I'm not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war' etc. Perhaps he's junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don't speak Russian, so I'd take their statements with a grain of salt. What Kofman has been saying sounds a lot closer to Yuri Podolyaka (scrubbed from Youtube a few weeks ago) or Strelkov's assessments, neither of which could ever be accused of being pro-Ukrainian goverment.

    You mentioned he's quite reluctant to do any broader geopolitical or diplomatic analysis, but I'd say he's simply careful to stay within his field of expertise, and ultimately Russian-Ukrainian battlefield performance will largely determine what political decisions will be made anyway.

    Responding to utu's post from previous thread before the usual arguments and rhetoric on Z-War do their rounds.

    Yevardian’s negative opinion of him seems rather eccentric and is not understandable to me and stating that Russians do the subgenre of ‘romantic literature’ better as very odd unless there are , which I doubt, some obscure Russian writers unknown to the world who are supposed to fit that description. I am afraid that the war time chauvinism taints Yevardian thinking. By the way, D.H. Lawrence knew something about the war time chauvinism as he was a victim of it on account of his German wife.
     
    I'm not exactly alone in finding Lawrence a poor writer, nothing to do with with 'wartime thinking' here. Kangaroo and Chatterly are particularly and impressively bad. As for the genre or topic, no need to dig very deep, Russia has Lermontov, Bunin, Chekhov, Turgenev, Yesenin and Tolstoy wrote about relations between men and women, the various stages of a relationship, and in various psychological forms, with a power and/or subtlety I don't see matched any English writer I know of. At least not sentimental novels of Hardy or formalism of Meredith and Henry James. Austen basically wrote light comedy of manners and is something else entirely. Perhaps Fitzgerald if not for his alcoholism and self-pity or Salinger if he was interested.

    @German_Reader


    For someone who called me “humorless” earlier in this thread, you don’t seem to have much of an understanding of irony yourself.
    But I suppose the kind of humor enjoyed by Caucasoids is more of the practical kind, like the jokes Stalin used to play on his henchmen.
     
    Perhaps. Though that German had prefaced that with a conversation about Russia, he had complicated feelings about the country, as Germans often do. Also went on he was pissed about all the immigrants in 2015 and how he voted AFD because of that, it was too obviously sincere to be ironic. Anyway, 'humourless' might be harsh, be I meant more about a general outlook on life, rather than getting a particular joke. Even some (most?) genuinely talented comedians can be rather humourless away from the stage, performers who see all of life as a joke like Norm Macdonald are pretty rare.

    Replies: @Ron Unz, @Wokechoke

    Waugh is consistently good. A Handful of Dust is an underrated book in his catalog. Sword of Honour series is also remarkable when you get to Yugoslavia.

    One other note worthy is Waugh in Abyssinia. An account of the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. the last time the Fascist idea of colonizing Africa with white settlers was hip. He rarely wrote a bad line.

  49. @Thulean Friend
    Kofman has a new episode up, too.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

    I just finished listening to it, and it's pretty pessimistic on Russia's chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off). I'm about 10 mins into Ritter and it's the usual "this is a total slaughter, it's not even a fair fight anymore".

    Pretty interesting that you get two such completely divergent images. I lean more towards Ritter being right (despite his at-times blind pro-Russian cheerleading). Still, I think readers could benefit from both perspectives as Kofman is fairly level-headed and the pro-UKR perspective is needed to balance out Ritter.

    ---

    With the US military openly admitting that they want to weaken Russia, this is as official as it gets to this being classified as a US-Russian proxywar, with Eastern Europe as the chessboard.

    ---

    The reports that Russia is shutting off gas for non-ruble payers is hilarious, and entirely foreseeable. Europe is paying the price for being an inert spectator as America controls its foreign - and increasingly, military - policies. I can't say I feel much empathy. If people are stupid, they deserve to get punished.

    Replies: @AP, @Ron Unz, @Ron Unz

    Kofman has a new episode up, too…I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).

    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn’t find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia’s last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I’m very, very skeptical.

    My impression—just an impression—is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn’t time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I’m surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here’s the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter’s positions, he’d soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    • Agree: Mikhail, Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @AP
    @Ron Unz


    Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything.
     
    They weren't doing that in the beginning either, because there aren't the circumstances to warrant that. Ukraine just got replenished with ~200 tanks from Poland (among other countries).

    it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians
     
    Correct, but not so for the flood of Soviet equipment that Ukraine is getting. Ukrainians are getting trained on the Western arms and in the months until they will get up to par on them, they are being resupplied with the Soviet equipment they already know.

    Replies: @Sean

    , @Wokechoke
    @Ron Unz

    The idea is to rearm the Ukies like the Germans did the Croats in the final months of the conflicts in Krajina in the Former Yugoslavia. At some point NATO will provide volunteer pilots doing airstrikes covering Ukies in tanks.
    Germany reequipped the Croatians in the late 1990s. Serbs were defeated with that combination.

    The Russians might be able to counter this if they have a bottomless well of volunteer Chinese pilots for example. If the Chinese chicken out Russia will be hard pressed.

    ww3 is here.

    , @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz

    So I saw that video, with Ritter concluding that the war will last 'another month, maybe a little more'.. I'm as open to hearing all sides of the conflict as anyone, but in conjuction with his February 24 predictions of 'Desert Storm 2.0', I don't think I can take him very seriously. Notice Karlin, bullish as he is, is grimly forecasting 2-3 years of warfare.
    Again, as I said earlier, the serious problems Russia will soon face aren't even so much the war itself, as the effects it dragging on will have, particularly in post-Soviet space and the Middle-East, where Russian priorities and projection abilities will obviously be elsewhere.

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Dmitry
    @Ron Unz

    Maybe write something to summarize a bit Ritter and Kofman positions in the longer videos (which were more than an hour). At least in my case I didn't had time to watch the long videos you posted. We are (some of us, definitely not AP and Mr Hack), people born in the 1990s. We became too addicted to videos with tanks explosions and pictures of maps, in our YouTube watching.

    If these are military experts (you also said Macgregor), there must be something very useful in their debate, unlike certain other (non-expert) people, who just contribute noise.

    Even if one is completely wrong, another is completely right. It could show some different style of reasoning in the military expert community.

    What are the falsifiable things you can extract from their description of the war, that could be interesting in the next months? Then we can compare with other people of the military expert community.

  50. S says:

    @ Songbird

    The Indian proposed that Putin satisfy Russia’s geostrategic and demographic weaknesses by pursuing the easier course of adopting the Western strategy of importing millions of Indians and teaching them Russian.

    The Indian internalized the treatment his people were receiving at the hands of the British Empire, ie Indians being seen as a source of ‘cheap labor’.

    Anyhow, it’s all the same stuff as was being done in the 19th century, the wage slavery (ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system) and promotion of drugs (the Opium Wars) to cause societal breakdown whilst making a pretty profit, etc. The difference being then they didn’t know about Pavlovian conditioning…ie positive reinforcement via the corporate mass media. They were thus a lot more open and blunt about what they were doing.

    Race was openly acknowledged then as was the genocidal effects upon it of wage slavery (ie cheap labor/mass immigration). You want someone to use drugs, you force them to at gunpoint as was done by the British Empire to the Chinese in the two Opium Wars fought against them.

    However, they’ve realized since then it’s better to deny race exist at all, especially to those being genocided via ‘mixing’ due to the importation of the so called ‘cheap labor’. [Ignorance is bliss!] And rather than using guns and cannons to enforce drug use, which creates its own resistance, it’s better to sell people on drug use via the mass media as ‘hip, cool, with it’ as was done in the 1960’s in the United States and Western Europe. [Catch more flies with honey than with vinegar!]

    If you have the time, you may find the articles below of interest.

    The top hathitrust article linked below shows the true ugly face of multi-culturalism. It is a Sept, 1851 London Times editorial, such editorials long being seen as a mouthpiece for official British government thought regarding policy, entitled ‘The American Minister in Ireland’. It regards the then US ambassador to the UK Abbott Lawrence (a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence ‘Immigrant City’, Mass) and his visit to Ireland. It’s declared that due specifically to their (the Irish people’s) enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie ‘cheap labor’) to the United States that the Irish people will be ‘known no more’. The replacement population of imported immigrants mixing with the remnant indigenous Irish is described as being ‘more mixed, more docile’, and ‘which can submit to a master.’ This I believe demonstrates in reality the utter contempt held toward ‘immigrants’ and the resulting ‘mixed’ populations. They see them as slaves.

    The article immediately below that, entitled ‘Extermination and Vengeance’, is from 1847. The Irish entirely concurred with the London Times assessment about the genocidal effects of the ‘cheap labor’ system, calling it ‘extermination’. ‘Vengeance’ refers to members of the British aristocracy in Ireland being shot for promoting the idea of the enmasse predation of the Irish as ‘cheap labor’ to the United States as a good thing for the Irish.

    Neither of these aforementioned articles say a word about the Famine. They are specifically and only speaking about the genocidal effects of wage slavery, ie the ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system. I’m sure the Irish were open to legitimate help, but they decidedly did not see this predation as ‘helping’ them, but saw it as destroying them instead.

    The third article from 1850, ‘American Factories in Ireland’, is about moving US manufacturing plants to Ireland. If you can’t get enough of the slaves to come to you, you go directly to where the slaves are.

    The fourth article, ‘Chinamen Out of China’, is from a Spring, 1874 edition of The Pall Mall Gazette of London. It laments specifically that ‘race’ is impeding the enmasse predation of China as wage slaves, ie people were succesfully protesting in America, Australia, and Canada, etc, their genocide by being mixed away due to the sociopathic greed of a few.

    As an aside, an ulterior motive of the Opium Wars may have been to ‘open up’ China for wage slavery (ie cheap labor’) exploitation.

    A powerful case could be made that the sole reason for the ideology of Multi-culturalism, with it’s attached anti-race campaign euphemistically called ‘anti-racism’, was, and is, to condition people to accept the genocidal, nation destroying, and wage depressing, wage slavery (cheap labor/mass immigration) system as good for them, rather than the utter poison it is. Though to be sure, I think there is a bit more to it than that.

    [The hathitrust articles are free. The Spectator of London articles are free for a month after signing up.]

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/22nd-june-1850/15/american-factories-in-ireland

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=chi.55223460&view=1up&seq=136&skin=2021

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @S

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    Replies: @S

  51. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

    I was thinking something more along the line of Putin as star fleet commander and Azov Battalion as Klingons.

  52. AP says:
    @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).
     
    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn't find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia's last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I'm very, very skeptical.

    My impression---just an impression---is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn't anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn't time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I'm surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here's the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter's positions, he'd soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Dmitry

    Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything.

    They weren’t doing that in the beginning either, because there aren’t the circumstances to warrant that. Ukraine just got replenished with ~200 tanks from Poland (among other countries).

    it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians

    Correct, but not so for the flood of Soviet equipment that Ukraine is getting. Ukrainians are getting trained on the Western arms and in the months until they will get up to par on them, they are being resupplied with the Soviet equipment they already know.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP

    Withdrawal from around Kiev probably indicates a sea change in Russian methods away from attempting a real win to a downbeat unwillingness to press the action. They are now going for a slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the 'big push' never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats in meticulously planned operations while a rise in the cost of living for Westerners, people going hungry in the Third World, and boring news from Ukraine erodes Western populations' willingness to continue with open ended support of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow

  53. before Azovstal there was Charles XII trapped in his mansion at Bender, Moldavia after he got caned in Poltava by Peter the Great. The Siege of the Caroleans at Bender is instructive about getting to deeply fond of the Black Sea if you are a Nordic Superman like Karl XII. Azov even gets a mention in the battles between the Sultan and Czar.

  54. @Beckow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Reputation is based on whether one understands what is going on - not on whether his wishes come true. This war is for all marbles and looks unstoppable - the post-war world will be so different that early expectations will seem like child's play. Both sides are committed, both sides are strong and have an almost endless way to escalate. It is impossible to predict a new world. Only fools can see what will happen clearly and they are hard to understand.

    Solano Lopez was a fascinating guy, the most interesting things about the catastrophic Paraguayan war against everybody was that after they lost 90% of their men, the society recovered within a generation - women were left mostly untouched and did their child-bearing roles by generously sharing the surviving men. It is a window into our deep past and an affirmation of the essential redundancy of most men. Maybe that's why Zelensky is grinding them down with no mercy, nobody needs them.

    I knew a girl from Paraguay who had a medallion with Lopez, she claimed he was revered because of his stubborn loyalty to his nation. The dead men were forgotten, the women looked towards the future, as always.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    I expect to see Hunter Biden defending his investments in some bunker in Odessa by the end of this.

  55. @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).
     
    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn't find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia's last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I'm very, very skeptical.

    My impression---just an impression---is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn't anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn't time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I'm surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here's the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter's positions, he'd soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Dmitry

    The idea is to rearm the Ukies like the Germans did the Croats in the final months of the conflicts in Krajina in the Former Yugoslavia. At some point NATO will provide volunteer pilots doing airstrikes covering Ukies in tanks.
    Germany reequipped the Croatians in the late 1990s. Serbs were defeated with that combination.

    The Russians might be able to counter this if they have a bottomless well of volunteer Chinese pilots for example. If the Chinese chicken out Russia will be hard pressed.

    ww3 is here.

  56. 2 months in and these threads are still largely useless for any real discussion of the most important war in 80 years. in the one place on the internet that i would have thought would be the most important venue to discuss it. instead we got the lowest signal to noise ratio threads in the history of unz.com.

    thank goodness for twitter and other internet services. indeed, this war shows the value of twitter, and that it WILL NOT become myspace after all the leftist political people take their ball and go home. subject matter experts in dozens of non-political fields post their thoughts on twitter, and they aren’t going to leave just because elon owns it now. the network effect matters. so i’ll continue to be able to see what tank experts think, jet experts, submarine experts, and so on.

    mainly what will happen is that mediocre hive mind leftist NPCs, who contribute nothing to anything, will slowly drift away to leftist echo chamber sites, the same way CNN devolved over 20 years into being completely irrelevant. leaving the network effect of non-political twitter intact.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @prime noticer

    Is there any reason you refuse to capitalize the start of your sentences? A decade or so ago, it might (barely) have been excusable, and to a certain demographic even made you seem cool - wow, this guy must be posting from his phone, what a wired up, tech-savvy life he must lead. Nowadays, far from giving your posts a nonchalant strut, it just looks sad.

  57. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress). Collaboration from Telegram videos. E.g., just from today: https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/32420 I saw another video from Donbass yesterday, not posting as it was much more gory. In short, the Ukrainians were posting a lot of destroyed and abandoned vehicles during the first three weeks, but destroyed vehicles do not always even translate into corpses (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter); these have dwindled since the retreat from Kiev. The Russian videos show a lot of corpses.

    The Ukrainians being captured now look older and more worn out. https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1519006028465115141 This is what one might expect from an army that is getting ground up. (Incidentally, no or negligible cases of Russians surrendering since the retreat from Kiev).

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine. Given the differences described above, they will necessarily be much more favorable to Russia in Donbass, and around Kherson (where they are defending).


    Unless Russia goes WMD (an arms dealer in Poland suggested to me a high possibility of this) or full mobilization I don’t see Russia moving beyond Donbas. Kharkiv is 3 times the size of Mariupol and Odessa twice the size.
     
    Russian mobilization will get the job done quicker, and as such will ironically be much less painful for Ukraine.

    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Ron Unz, @AP

    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress).

    Ukraine had better combat effectiveness than Russia, around Kiev. Their infantry is better trained and better armed than the opposing Russian infantry, and there was enough cover that Russian air dominance wasn’t a decisive factor. This would be true throughout western Ukraine and Kiev, and in urban areas like Kharkiv and Odessa and Dnipro. It does not apply to the southern plains. Donbas has a few hills but is also not conducive to infantry.

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1

    It may have even been better for Ukraine.

    In this war the Russian offenses around Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv failed and resulted in total withdrawal. Russia has been successful in the less urban South (the grabbed most of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts but stopped at the city of Mikolayiv and did not try to seize Zaporizhia itself) and in the Donbas where they are making slow but steady progress. So overall due to the withdrawal in the north, Russia controls about half the total territory now that it did 3 weeks into the war.

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter

    Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.

    That’s certainly how it seems to be now, but thinking that this is how it is going to go long-term assumes that Ukrainians will not find a way to adjust and will fight the same way week after week, conveniently taking casualties at a great disadvantage. They may, but usually in war adjustments are made.

    • Replies: @A123
    @AP


    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.
     

    Your map reinforces my earlier question.

    For Ukraine to WIN. They must advance over open land to retake Mariupol. How will they achieve this?

    If Ukraine cannot WIN, the best they can achieve is a LOSE-LOSE stalemate.
    ___

    Russia's economy is harmed, yes. However Ukraine's is headed into collapse. War is expensive.

    -- What % of Ukraine's outside assistance is from Not-The-President Biden's regime?
    -- When the Hunter Biden laptop material is released, what are the chances that more details about the Burisma bribery scandal will be revealed?

    Even if there is nothing specific about Hunter's Ukrainian corruption, simple inward focus for America could reduce, or cut off, funding for Ukraine.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa

  58. @AP
    @Ron Unz


    Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn’t anything.
     
    They weren't doing that in the beginning either, because there aren't the circumstances to warrant that. Ukraine just got replenished with ~200 tanks from Poland (among other countries).

    it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians
     
    Correct, but not so for the flood of Soviet equipment that Ukraine is getting. Ukrainians are getting trained on the Western arms and in the months until they will get up to par on them, they are being resupplied with the Soviet equipment they already know.

    Replies: @Sean

    Withdrawal from around Kiev probably indicates a sea change in Russian methods away from attempting a real win to a downbeat unwillingness to press the action. They are now going for a slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the ‘big push’ never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats in meticulously planned operations while a rise in the cost of living for Westerners, people going hungry in the Third World, and boring news from Ukraine erodes Western populations’ willingness to continue with open ended support of Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Sean


    ...slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the ‘big push’ never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats
     
    That would be in effect a stalemate, I don't think Russia could afford that politically - so their strategy must include some future break-throughs. In all wars the only public opinion that matters is the domestic one. Russia needs something to present at home as victory with costs worth it. That by definition requires the Black See coast (or most of it), to protect Crimea. It doesn't require Kiev, Kharkov or Lviv - the opposite, most Russians don't want the Western Ukraine, they understand that it would be a permanent headache and it would be "unjust".

    Since this is now in effect a Nato-Russia war, the calculations could mean nothing. The bad thing about the recent dramatic escalation is that to solve it we need an agreed-on losing side. Neither side can afford to be seen as a loser meaning more trouble ahead.

  59. Bier Tisch Kommandant NSA here with a few questions:
    1) Why hasn’t the west ukie power grid been taken down by missile attacks on the major substations?
    No modern society functions in the dark: no internet, no communications, no commerce, no transportation, no free porn, no more 200 trivial text messages a day In 3 weeks they would be surrendering or eating each other. Flooding the vile euroweanies with another 10 to 15 million refugees would be a bonus.
    2) Why are the Ruskies still supplying power to the Baltic State electrical grids? Cast them into the dark also.
    3) Why are the Ruskies still supplying nat gas to their nato enemies?
    Is this a real war or some kind of grotesque kabuki theater? Maybe the ukie nazis do have a few stray nukes and a delivery system, so the carnage is being kept conventional?

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  60. Since we in the general public have limited information on what is going on in the battle zones of this war. The verdict on who is winning this war is still not certain. So it might help our analysis of what is actually going on by looking at what we do know.

    This war has two fronts, the battlefield and the economic sphere. In the economic sphere, we know for certain that an important goal of the US was to crash the ruble. In fact, Biden bragged about turning the ruble into rubble. On the ruble part of the economic war the US has failed miserably. Indeed, the ruble is now at a one year high against the dollar. And Putin has shown that he can almost set the value of the ruble to whatever value he chooses.

    And while it is tough to observe the battlefield, it is easy to observe the behavior of the leaders involved. Perhaps, by observing the leaders we can gain clues about what is happening on the battlefield. Which leader is behaving as though the war is going his way? Obviously, it is Putin. Putin has so many cards that he has not yet seen the need to play, that it is hard to believe that he is losing this war. Consider that he has not even bothered to shut off the electricity or water to Kiev and Lviv. And it wasn’t until yesterday that Russia saw the need to even partly decommission Ukraine’s railroad network.

    I believe that if Putin felt that Russia was losing this war, he would surely have attacked the infrastructure of Ukraine, especially that of Western Ukraine. He could have easily shut down Lviv’s and Kiev’s electrical grids and their water supplies. He could have interdicted food supplies by bombing roads, bridges and railways. He could use missiles to strike government buildings in populated areas of these cities. And if a few of these missiles “went astray” (like one of the US’s missiles did when it hit the Chinese embassy in Serbia) in, say, Lviv and hit civilian areas, this could lead to a general panic. The combined effects of these actions would surely lead to many, perhaps millions more refugees leaving Ukraine for Poland, Romania, etc.. This would disadvantage Ukraine and NATO. Yet, apparently, Putin has not seen the need to further disadvantage Russia’s opponents in this manner.

    Contrast Putin’s actions with those of the leaders of Ukraine. Zelensky has been crying of the need for more tanks and weapons. Oleksiy Arestovych, one of Zelensky’s top advisors has made similar pleas, saying, “We do not have any heavy weaponry. We need it.” Scott Ritter described these types of requests as akin to asking NATO to replace the army that Russia has already destroyed.

    So, we may not yet know exactly what is happening on the battlefield. But we do know that Putin is behaving like he is winning and Zelensky is behaving like he is losing.

  61. @songbird
    @Yevardian


    Or the impact weathervane ‘friends’ like Turkey or Iran
     
    I'm no expert on the Middle East, but it is hard for me to see Iran as a straw blowing in the wind. They've been under US sanctions, longer than most people here (as I presume) have been alive, which I think reflects on the power structures of both countries.

    If the EU needs more oil from Iran, then, IMO, they're probably going to need to buy it, anyway, without strong-arming it. Or they may go back to Russia. But according to Zeihan, Russia's capacity to pump is going to breakdown due to cold weather and backpressure, due to lack of demand, and the EU is fucked, if they change their minds too late.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    The sanctions had been tolerable for Iran, much closer to the extent China is sanctioned now, and they could eek out decent growth until 2011/12, which is the year they were as extensively sanctioned as North Korea. Both facts show in the GDP numbers.

  62. @songbird
    I disagree with Denmark's policies in a lot of ways, but, based on the current low standards within the West, they are pretty impressive. Current plans are to open up a jail in Kosovo to house criminal migrants, before deporting them.

    Is there any way that Sweden or Germany can be placed into receivership, and ruled by the Danes? At a bare minimum, Schleswig-Holstein should be given back to them. In time, perhaps, they could takeover Hamburg, and remediate it, by deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical

    We might get to the point in decades when North Africa will be on the same functionality as Europe if not more, and emigration southwards happen voluntarily, similar to how Northern Europeans were moving to Spain and Portugal before the Eurozone crisis. But North Africa is also migrant exporter to Southern Europe to and you prefer racialism.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    Wouldn't say that I'm a true-believer when it comes to GDP, but, still, even I have to admit that the GDP of North Africa is amazingly low.

    Maybe, there is some room for improvement? If Morocco and Algeria bury the hatchet? Or some new form of government is invented?

    Though, personally, I'd never want to live in North Africa, regardless. As far as I am concerned, it is a climatic death zone, for someone with my genes. Maybe, Southern Europeans or tannable Germanics might be interested in it.

    I doubt North Africans would want us on their turf either. I think they've demonstrated that pretty well, even though they do like to go North. They might tolerate retirees though, if they add something to the economy.

  63. @S
    @ Songbird

    The Indian proposed that Putin satisfy Russia’s geostrategic and demographic weaknesses by pursuing the easier course of adopting the Western strategy of importing millions of Indians and teaching them Russian.
     
    The Indian internalized the treatment his people were receiving at the hands of the British Empire, ie Indians being seen as a source of 'cheap labor'.

    Anyhow, it's all the same stuff as was being done in the 19th century, the wage slavery (ie the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system) and promotion of drugs (the Opium Wars) to cause societal breakdown whilst making a pretty profit, etc. The difference being then they didn't know about Pavlovian conditioning...ie positive reinforcement via the corporate mass media. They were thus a lot more open and blunt about what they were doing.

    Race was openly acknowledged then as was the genocidal effects upon it of wage slavery (ie cheap labor/mass immigration). You want someone to use drugs, you force them to at gunpoint as was done by the British Empire to the Chinese in the two Opium Wars fought against them.

    However, they've realized since then it's better to deny race exist at all, especially to those being genocided via 'mixing' due to the importation of the so called 'cheap labor'. [Ignorance is bliss!] And rather than using guns and cannons to enforce drug use, which creates its own resistance, it's better to sell people on drug use via the mass media as 'hip, cool, with it' as was done in the 1960's in the United States and Western Europe. [Catch more flies with honey than with vinegar!]

    If you have the time, you may find the articles below of interest.

    The top hathitrust article linked below shows the true ugly face of multi-culturalism. It is a Sept, 1851 London Times editorial, such editorials long being seen as a mouthpiece for official British government thought regarding policy, entitled 'The American Minister in Ireland'. It regards the then US ambassador to the UK Abbott Lawrence (a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence 'Immigrant City', Mass) and his visit to Ireland. It's declared that due specifically to their (the Irish people's) enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie 'cheap labor') to the United States that the Irish people will be 'known no more'. The replacement population of imported immigrants mixing with the remnant indigenous Irish is described as being 'more mixed, more docile', and 'which can submit to a master.' This I believe demonstrates in reality the utter contempt held toward 'immigrants' and the resulting 'mixed' populations. They see them as slaves.

    The article immediately below that, entitled 'Extermination and Vengeance', is from 1847. The Irish entirely concurred with the London Times assessment about the genocidal effects of the 'cheap labor' system, calling it 'extermination'. 'Vengeance' refers to members of the British aristocracy in Ireland being shot for promoting the idea of the enmasse predation of the Irish as 'cheap labor' to the United States as a good thing for the Irish.

    Neither of these aforementioned articles say a word about the Famine. They are specifically and only speaking about the genocidal effects of wage slavery, ie the 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system. I'm sure the Irish were open to legitimate help, but they decidedly did not see this predation as 'helping' them, but saw it as destroying them instead.

    The third article from 1850, 'American Factories in Ireland', is about moving US manufacturing plants to Ireland. If you can't get enough of the slaves to come to you, you go directly to where the slaves are.

    The fourth article, 'Chinamen Out of China', is from a Spring, 1874 edition of The Pall Mall Gazette of London. It laments specifically that 'race' is impeding the enmasse predation of China as wage slaves, ie people were succesfully protesting in America, Australia, and Canada, etc, their genocide by being mixed away due to the sociopathic greed of a few.

    As an aside, an ulterior motive of the Opium Wars may have been to 'open up' China for wage slavery (ie cheap labor') exploitation.

    A powerful case could be made that the sole reason for the ideology of Multi-culturalism, with it's attached anti-race campaign euphemistically called 'anti-racism', was, and is, to condition people to accept the genocidal, nation destroying, and wage depressing, wage slavery (cheap labor/mass immigration) system as good for them, rather than the utter poison it is. Though to be sure, I think there is a bit more to it than that.

    [The hathitrust articles are free. The Spectator of London articles are free for a month after signing up.]

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/20th-november-1847/12/extermination-and-vengeance

    http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/22nd-june-1850/15/american-factories-in-ireland

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=chi.55223460&view=1up&seq=136&skin=2021

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    • Replies: @S
    @Yellowface Anon


    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.
     
    Thanks. I think the original idea with this manufactured and broadly controlled dialectic (crimethink, I know) which has been emanating from the Anglosphere of Capitalist vs Communist, Right vs Left, etc, was that the 'Left' was to correct the errors of the 'Right', and vice-versa to an extent as well.

    However, running both sides of this artificial dialectic as they have been for centuries is quite corrupting, and historically, powerful elements and their hangers on of both the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples were heavily involved in the quite lucrative chattel slavery and it's trade, and still are with it's much more profitable monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state.

    Thus, the people at the very top being made up in large part of what are in reality unreformed slavers from what I can tell, which really shines through in the proto-multicultural 1851 London Times editorial, and people being creatures of habit as they are, to clarify a recently heard saying, and with the proper conditioning, I think after a planned WWIII they may be aiming for a post war global remnant population that will embrace this sentiment:

    'You will have nothing, and you will work for nothing, and you will be happy.'

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  64. I’ll take Tex Bentley over the below Texan:

  65. No disagreement here:

  66. @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).
     
    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn't find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia's last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I'm very, very skeptical.

    My impression---just an impression---is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn't anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn't time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I'm surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here's the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter's positions, he'd soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Dmitry

    So I saw that video, with Ritter concluding that the war will last ‘another month, maybe a little more’.. I’m as open to hearing all sides of the conflict as anyone, but in conjuction with his February 24 predictions of ‘Desert Storm 2.0’, I don’t think I can take him very seriously. Notice Karlin, bullish as he is, is grimly forecasting 2-3 years of warfare.
    Again, as I said earlier, the serious problems Russia will soon face aren’t even so much the war itself, as the effects it dragging on will have, particularly in post-Soviet space and the Middle-East, where Russian priorities and projection abilities will obviously be elsewhere.

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @A123
    @Yevardian


    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.
     
    There really is no such thing as a "United Europe" or "The West". Hungary would end as a country without Russian gas, their willingness to buy in Rubles was inevitable. While not as extreme, Slovakia is in similar position. They too have openly committed to buying Russia gas.

    "European" unified policy is a myth. Authoritarian control by the Brussels-Berlin Axis is slipping badly. (1)

    Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due.

    While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany' Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin' demands:
     
    The German Traffic-Light Coalition will find some way to remove Uniper from that list. However, other sovereign nations in Europe will not use such strong arm tactics against their own people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-european-gas-buyers-fold-russian-demands-pay-gas-rubles
  67. @Yevardian
    @sher singh

    What's your point? My family just didn't have the time the insular, gossipy, resentful and backbiting nature of western emigre communities, they (regretfully) didn't see any bright future in the post-USSR world and wanted us to assimilate successfully.
    That doesn't mean you can't speak your language and take pride in your history and culture at home (there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered), but when you move to another country, you adapt to the place that hosted you, not like some typical ungrateful Indian leftist weed whining about colonialism and racism (or in your case, maliciously enjoying the destruction of your host, like some parasite) whilst living better than you ever could at home.
    Thanks for reminding me why I can't stand Indians, it was starting to fade since I got away from seeing them everyday.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
    Assimilating is gay instead you should carry swords & lift weights.

    True pride is expressed in the street, you’re a literal shit on the sidewalk||
    Maybe an Indian left you there?

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • LOL: songbird
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @sher singh


    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
     
    You are both anti-liberal and anti-white, no different to haredi and islamist trash.

    Replies: @sher singh

  68. @prime noticer
    2 months in and these threads are still largely useless for any real discussion of the most important war in 80 years. in the one place on the internet that i would have thought would be the most important venue to discuss it. instead we got the lowest signal to noise ratio threads in the history of unz.com.

    thank goodness for twitter and other internet services. indeed, this war shows the value of twitter, and that it WILL NOT become myspace after all the leftist political people take their ball and go home. subject matter experts in dozens of non-political fields post their thoughts on twitter, and they aren't going to leave just because elon owns it now. the network effect matters. so i'll continue to be able to see what tank experts think, jet experts, submarine experts, and so on.

    mainly what will happen is that mediocre hive mind leftist NPCs, who contribute nothing to anything, will slowly drift away to leftist echo chamber sites, the same way CNN devolved over 20 years into being completely irrelevant. leaving the network effect of non-political twitter intact.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Is there any reason you refuse to capitalize the start of your sentences? A decade or so ago, it might (barely) have been excusable, and to a certain demographic even made you seem cool – wow, this guy must be posting from his phone, what a wired up, tech-savvy life he must lead. Nowadays, far from giving your posts a nonchalant strut, it just looks sad.

    • Agree: AP
  69. S says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @S

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    Replies: @S

    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.

    Thanks. I think the original idea with this manufactured and broadly controlled dialectic (crimethink, I know) which has been emanating from the Anglosphere of Capitalist vs Communist, Right vs Left, etc, was that the ‘Left’ was to correct the errors of the ‘Right’, and vice-versa to an extent as well.

    However, running both sides of this artificial dialectic as they have been for centuries is quite corrupting, and historically, powerful elements and their hangers on of both the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples were heavily involved in the quite lucrative chattel slavery and it’s trade, and still are with it’s much more profitable monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state.

    Thus, the people at the very top being made up in large part of what are in reality unreformed slavers from what I can tell, which really shines through in the proto-multicultural 1851 London Times editorial, and people being creatures of habit as they are, to clarify a recently heard saying, and with the proper conditioning, I think after a planned WWIII they may be aiming for a post war global remnant population that will embrace this sentiment:

    ‘You will have nothing, and you will work for nothing, and you will be happy.’

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @S

    It isn't in the Jews or Anglo-Saxons as a people, much of their middle and lower classes will be sacrificed, too. It is rather Jewish memes that signals their hosts' exclusivity and consequentially the destruction of Gentiles, meeting an economic and political system that Anglo-Saxons pioneered. Individuals and Peoples don't plan world domination, only ideas do.

    Replies: @S

  70. @sher singh
    @Yevardian

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
    Assimilating is gay instead you should carry swords & lift weights.

    True pride is expressed in the street, you're a literal shit on the sidewalk||
    Maybe an Indian left you there?

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.

    You are both anti-liberal and anti-white, no different to haredi and islamist trash.

    • Disagree: sher singh
    • Replies: @sher singh
    @silviosilver

    Join the discord. You can believe what you want, I'm more Pro-Sikh/Dharma than anything else.
    The European Gods hold a place in our heart, nothing else to say.

    If you're unworthy of them and unarmed do you really have a place to speak?
    Think before you respond

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  71. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The Soviets were outright advancing against Nazi Germany after Stalingrad on all fronts but casualty ratios remained highly lopsided, indeed Germany would have won through banal attrition had the Western Allies not been in play.

    It's a somewhat similar situation here, except that Ukraine's mobilization potential is much more constrained due to demographics, ease of emigration, and political system.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517906770659790848

    It is not a totalitarian state so it only has perhaps 7M age-appropriate men * 10% suicidally inclined svidomists = 700,000 potential troops who are willing to go fight, at least 10% of that number have already been utilized (KIA/MIA/WIA/POW), to get more you'd need for it to go beyond the inefficient press-gangings (at most) that you have now into full totalitarianism, I mean Kettenhunde, thousands of executions for cowardice and desertion, the entire works like in Germany and the USSR, will Zelensky do that, while I cannot say that would be optimal, it would certainly be very based and glorious

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AP, @Wielgus

    The Red Army in WW2 tended to expend lives quite extravagantly, but perhaps it had to and it could be regarded as a sign of desperation on their part that the Ukrainians tend to be more “based and glorious”.
    From 1943 onwards, no longer able to boast of territorial gains, the Nazi press like the Völkischer Beobachter went with headlines like “More bloody losses for the Bolsheviks”. The Red Army was advancing but at a cost.

  72. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    It depends on casualty ratios, if it's 3:1 or better in Russia's favor (videos from Donbass suggest that to be the case) then Russia can keep fighting indefinitely without mobilization in light of its much larger population (152M vs. 28M now in their current de facto borders) and munitioning capacity (larger than Ukraine's by two orders of magnitude).

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1518020190977642498

    Donbass isn't Kiev. Pace of advance is slow ("snail's war") not a costly blitz; local population is much more pro-Russian; terrain is less wooded and not marshy (though urbanized). Force concentrations are far denser, so the Ukrainians can't harry the Russian rear like they could in the north. Most importantly, it's at the tail end of Ukrainian supply lines and farthest from NATO ELINT assets.

    Attrition of Ukrainian military capital is extreme and casualty ratios can thus be expected to become even more lopsided over time (memes aside, light infantry does not fare well against armor and drone-targetted artillery, as casual perusal of conflicted-related Telegram channels suggests). My read is that having failed to achieve a quick knockout blow, the strategy now is to bleed out the Ukrainian military in Donbass. There's no particular hurry, what the West could afford to spare has already been sent, and it will take a year for them to revvy up production. By that time, the Ukrainian military will be a spent and demoralized force, at least unless Zelensky goes totalitarian.

    ***

    acer120 independently came to a similar conclusion I discovered: https://acer120.livejournal.com/188845.html


    Стране огромной предложено вставать разве что в очередь за сахаром из-за очередной истерии пенсионеров. 150-миллионное государство буднично воюет профессионалами статистически незначимого в масштабах нации количества. За счет превосходства в военно-техническом развитии и экономической устойчивости. И даже приграничное положение и чудовищный масштаб территории спецоперации (Сравните Украину с той же Сирией или там тем более с Чечней) особо не сказывается на мирной жизни России - на 30ть какой-то день военных действий два вертолета пролетели до Белгорода и действительно ударили по нефтебазе какой-то, еще сбивали ракеты над Таганрогом, над Должанской что-то падало - на мирной жизни тыловых русских чеченская война с ее терроризмом явно сказывалась куда сильнее.
     
    The break with the West is clearly long-term.

    My hard prediction is that Russia will take Novorossiya at a minimum and possibly all of Ukraine. The fighting may continue well into 2023.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mikhail, @Wielgus

    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”) but Russian is a second language for me so I may be wrong.

    • Replies: @S
    @Wielgus


    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”)...
     
    Hehe. I'm reminded of an account from the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans had taken a sizeable number of Allied soldiers prisoner. Some German officer piped up within their hearing in English as they were being marched to the rear that 'It's a long way to Tipperrary!'

    People can be rather cruel to newly minted POW's that way. ;-)

    Replies: @Wielgus

  73. @Wokechoke
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UJ2gLsWYd4

    2/3 Kings and Generals...after losing all his his crack troops in Poltava, Charles of Sweden hides out in Moldavia in Ottoman custody...Sweden crumbles as a great power while Denmark, Russia and Prussia flex their powers. Peter builds a Navy and a Russian expeditionary force shows up in the North Sea chasing desperate Swedes.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    Years later, while besieging a Danish fortress in Norway he received a fatal head wound. To this day it is unknown whether he was a victim of enemy fire, friendly fire or “fragging”.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Wielgus

    Karl was hardcore. What an extraordinary life he led. Reminds me of Harald Hardrada.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  74. @Wielgus
    @Wokechoke

    Years later, while besieging a Danish fortress in Norway he received a fatal head wound. To this day it is unknown whether he was a victim of enemy fire, friendly fire or "fragging".

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Karl was hardcore. What an extraordinary life he led. Reminds me of Harald Hardrada.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Wokechoke

    He was but his death spelled the end of the Swedish Empire, which had been in existence for a little under a century, and Sweden had been a major player in the Thirty Years' War. Towards the end of that conflict Sweden published a sort of propaganda poster listing all the fortresses they held, most of them in what is now Germany, as a sort of advertisement of their military successes, even though they had defeats as well as victories.
    The Cossack chieftain Mazeppa cooperated with Charles against Russia, and a pejorative Russian term for Ukrainians, especially anti-Russian ones, is mazepy. Mazeppa tends now to be presented as a hero in the Ukrainian education system and historiography whereas Tsarist Russia and the USSR both presented him as a traitor. Bohdan Khmelnytsky who led a revolt against Poland and concluded a treaty with the Russian Tsar received more favourable treatment and indeed in Soviet times a Ukrainian region was named after him and still is. As they say, the future is certain, it is only the past that keeps changing...

  75. Auto-translate of Strelkov’s latest posting regarding ongoing battles:

    The area south of Izyum:

    Fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to incoming reports, the most fierce battles are taking place on the right flank – in the area of village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as “on the edge” of the offensive – in the center of the bridgehead – in the area (possibly – and on the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka . After taking the indicated town our troops will approach directly the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its interception (which will not be easy, since the settlements along this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).

    It should be noted that the battles are continuous “viscous” character. The enemy has enough manpower to – despite the lengthening of the front line in this area – nowhere to allow Russian troops to make deep breakthroughs.
    At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw his forces from the bridgehead he still has on the left bank of the Seversky Donets – from the Liman-Yampol region and the Severodonetsk ledge, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna (in which fierce fighting continued).

    It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group – near Barvenkovo ​​and Slavyansk.
    The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were not able to prevent this and surround the enemy units.

    In general, the enemy defends competently, stubbornly, controls the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear that the command is betting on WINING TIME AND INFLICTING MAXIMUM LOSS ON THE STRIKING UNITS OF THE RF – due to the unhurried surrender of the territory.

    Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is the huge Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was prepared in advance for a long defense. Its Armed Forces will definitely not surrender until the last opportunity – defending, if necessary, as a “besieged fortress”. (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is of great importance – they should not be released or interned in any case – otherwise the garrison of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk will defend just as long and stubbornly, if not longer and more stubbornly). However, this “fortress” will still have to be surrounded, which is very difficult to do with the available limited forces and at such a low pace – at which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense units in advance.

    In the south – in the area of ​​Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov – the situation has not changed significantly. “Southern part of pincer” stalled.

    In the central section – near Donetsk – the situation as a whole is unchanged. There is a lull in most areas, the fighting is only in the area north of Avdiivka, where the DPR Armed Forces have had minor tactical successes.

    The general conclusion, unfortunately, is bleak: the attack of the Russian group on the encirclement and encirclement of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which did not come as a surprise, met with fierce resistance and almost certainly will not lead to a complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy ( only some 2-3 additional tank corps “out of the sky” could come in order to abruptly break through the front and connect deep in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). “Cannes” just didn’t work out.

    In the best case, the enemy will be “squeezed out” from the Donbass for many weeks and even – it is possible – for several months, with heavy losses (mutual, of course). That will allow him to create, train and massively introduce strategic reserves into battle in any chosen area without much haste by the summer. And also – to crush Transnistria, gathering sufficient forces for this and not risking defeat near Donetsk during the operation.

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_654927

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @sudden death

    You always have to wait for the last meme in a text like this.

    Transnistria.

    That’s this guy’s ultimate aim. Transnistria apparently gives Ukraine a speed kill if they decided to attack it. When he begins to talk about Kaliningrad then I will worry. How long would Kaliningrad do in a proper siege and blockade? How would the Russians retaliate? When he starts talking about that we can expect war in the Baltic.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  76. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    My analysis is based on what one might expect from a confrontation of two sides with comparable combat effectiveness and manpower in which one has much more artillery and drones, and an air force, and one with much fewer of them, and with the concrete evidence of who is advancing and who is not (all major Ukrainian offensives, e.g. in Kherson, have failed to make significant progress).
     
    Ukraine had better combat effectiveness than Russia, around Kiev. Their infantry is better trained and better armed than the opposing Russian infantry, and there was enough cover that Russian air dominance wasn't a decisive factor. This would be true throughout western Ukraine and Kiev, and in urban areas like Kharkiv and Odessa and Dnipro. It does not apply to the southern plains. Donbas has a few hills but is also not conducive to infantry.

    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1
     
    It may have even been better for Ukraine.

    In this war the Russian offenses around Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv failed and resulted in total withdrawal. Russia has been successful in the less urban South (the grabbed most of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts but stopped at the city of Mikolayiv and did not try to seize Zaporizhia itself) and in the Donbas where they are making slow but steady progress. So overall due to the withdrawal in the north, Russia controls about half the total territory now that it did 3 weeks into the war.

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Anatoliy-Nijnik/publication/258383304/figure/fig2/AS:324937035337728@1454482434973/Forestry-zoning-of-Ukraine-Source-adapted-from-39-and-the-records-of-the-National.png

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Topographic_map_of_Ukraine.svg/1280px-Topographic_map_of_Ukraine.svg.png

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    (many cases of double counting and false attribution established wrt Onyx by Armchair Warlord on Twitter
     
    https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1509869533762408450

    Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    That's certainly how it seems to be now, but thinking that this is how it is going to go long-term assumes that Ukrainians will not find a way to adjust and will fight the same way week after week, conveniently taking casualties at a great disadvantage. They may, but usually in war adjustments are made.

    Replies: @A123

    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.

    Your map reinforces my earlier question.

    For Ukraine to WIN. They must advance over open land to retake Mariupol. How will they achieve this?

    If Ukraine cannot WIN, the best they can achieve is a LOSE-LOSE stalemate.
    ___

    Russia’s economy is harmed, yes. However Ukraine’s is headed into collapse. War is expensive.

    — What % of Ukraine’s outside assistance is from Not-The-President Biden’s regime?
    — When the Hunter Biden laptop material is released, what are the chances that more details about the Burisma bribery scandal will be revealed?

    Even if there is nothing specific about Hunter’s Ukrainian corruption, simple inward focus for America could reduce, or cut off, funding for Ukraine.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @A123

    The area around Kiev has several distinct problems for the Russians that don’t exist in the South.

    The Russians were coming from Belorussia and their supplies were coming from Russia via Belorussia. Long supply lines.

    Metropolitan city with populated suburbs and exurbs and light industry connected to the international airport.

    A dead zone around Chernobyl. Spooky.

    It’s bisected by the Dneiper and several man made dammed lakes.

    The Ukrainians could come directly out of their capital fighting. They could build up to the south and west of the Russian forces right there. Russians were hemmed in and at extended supply routes.


    The south is open country close to Russian depots. No risk of Belorussia halting supply under political considerations. Significant Russian population in the south controlling the biggest cities there.

    The Muravsky Trail suits an army heading south from Kursk and north east from Melitopol. It doesn’t suit forces in Dnipro and Kiev. Kharkov can impact this invasion route but so far the Russians have extended the front line in the south so much the Ukies are having trouble concentrating forces in Donbas to counter the sweeping arc of Russian movements out of Crimea and Luhansk.


    Crimea is like a mega unsinkable aircraft carrier.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @A123

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    As for the damage to the "economy," that argument might be a priority for Russia and its economy as Russia only has its pride on the line, but Ukraine has the much bigger priority of their country: Ukraine. If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Ukraine is currently enacting a defence in depth. They are making orderly withdrawals in exchange for destroying significant Russian forces. In the meantime, the provision of Western arms continues to accelerate and Ukraine near-infinite capacity to send troops to safe foreign locales to be trained on those arms.

    The second Russian attempt to shock the Ukrainians into crumbling is failing. Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming.

    The balance of forces for the next phase is essentially already decided and it is looking miserable for Russia. Every Russian decision has been in chase of failure. If they didn't want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago. If they had wanted a decisive victory in Donbas, they would have had to ended the other offensives as soon as they met serious resistance, in order to reinforce Donbas as the main effort.

    The problem of losing in a big operation is not that you can't change course, but that it is psychologically too difficult for most people to change course until they meet definite failure, at which point, changing course is too late, and the pattern repeats itself.

    If Putin wants to declare victory, he might find that the most passable one would be in a week, followed by an immediate ceasefire with agreement to withdraw to pre-invasion lines. Since the Russian shills and useful idiots seem to be able to buy literally anything that Putin is selling, perhaps he will pull it off.

    Propaganda is the great Russian strength as it creates fewer useful idiots for the other side to use and attracts useful idiots to Russia's cause, but it is also their biggest weakness, it corrupts the flow of information and makes them less competent 9 times out of 10. Clean information is what drives effective decision-making.

    Meanwhile, the Western culture of self-critique, as created by the Ancient Greeks, is also both the greatest strength of the West and it's greatest weakness. It means that useful idiots bloom in multitudes, but it also makes for better decisio-making 9 times out of 10.

    There is the problem in the West that resident foreign groups mostly don't really do this, and are considered somewhat outside of it, but that is a long-term problem for the future and the only end result of it is that the West becomes like elsewhere.

    Personally, I don't think this will happen. Other groups will learn to get past "saving face" and other forms of dishonesty, but it is a worthwhile point that needs to be worked on.

    Overall, Russia's problems in this war are institutional and cultural, so they will not turn it around. They simply cannot be honest with themselves about themselves, and see their negatives and flaws, while they are also extremely vociferous in critique of everyone else.

    There is also the interesting parallel with Iraq 2, where Western forces simply couldn't be honest about the negatives and flaws of the other, of the Iraqis that they were trying to build something far too sophisticated for, but were vociferous in self-critique.

    The West needs to keep their self-critique, but extend it to non-Western demographies in a serious and amoral manner. Russia just needs to learn from the Greeks and develop some courage and integrity.

    Optimistically, this war will help. Can Russia just see itself as the victim, super-power and everyone else at fault for their failure, though they actually won, yet again? I doubt it, though humans can really deceive themselves every far.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative "superpower" does when it acts, should remind people that we're far from perfect, but we're orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean

  77. @Ron Unz
    @Anatoly Karlin


    As I said, I think casualties around Kiev actually were 1:1, and indeed must have accounted even to date for the bulk of (non-LDNR) Russian casualties in Ukraine.
     
    Since you've obviously been following this conflict in great detail and prefer quantitative analysis and predictions, I'm curious what your estimate would be of current Russian KIAs.

    The claims I've seen made are enormously wide, ranging from seemingly ridiculous Ukrainian figures to the official totals last released by the Russian government a few weeks ago. Similarly, the commenters on this website have produced widely divergent estimates.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    7-10k Russians (inc. LDNR), 15-20k Ukrainians, vast uncertainty on both sides.

    As I noted, I think in the battles around Kiev it was 1:1 or thereabouts, but the current fighting in Donbass (and Kherson) is extremely loaded against the Ukrainians. Example: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7586

    Для примера: 39 бригада, штурмовавшая Сулиговку, имеет за всё время боевых действий пару десятков погибших и несколько десятков раненых, в то время, как только одна лишь 95 бригада ВСУ потеряла в боях с ними более 100 человек убитыми, находясь при этом в хорошо подготовленной обороне. А кроме 95 бригады, там же были разгромлены части 93 механизированной и 25 десантно-штурмовой бригад ВСУ.

    Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Reading both Western and Russian sources regarding death tolls so far during this war, one gets wildly different results, each side slanting the numbers to its own benefit. One thing that is crystal clear, is that Ukrainian civilian deaths are much higher on the Ukrainians side, according to UN sources about 2,729 Ukrainian civilians have perished a a result of Putler's Ukrainian dragnet of searching for "Nazis". I would guess that a good majority of these elderly folks, mothers and children that have perished are from the Eastern zone, areas that are often Russian speaking enclaves. Areas that were once friendly towards Russia, that would be nice to have on your side if you indeed win the war in this area. Not any more. People remember who was responsible for this unprovoked war and who killed their own, and wont go for any Russian BS to the contrary.

    , @prime noticer
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher."

    it's 5:1 at least. maybe more like 6 or 7. UKR is getting pulverized. the longer it goes on the more lopsided it becomes due to UKR running out of most equipment. this conflict would have been over a while ago without the US and NATO dumping billions in equipment, years of worth of production, into a 2 month battle.

    i maintain my position that RUS would roll over any individual EU member of NATO. they don't have the equipment or ammunition to last more than a month. meanwhile RUS forces are trundling along at like 50% intensity and unit usage.

    the reason UKR does not surrender is because the US won't let them surrender, and because their leader is not Ukrainian, and doesn't care if most UKR units get wiped out. he feels nothing when Ukrainians get killed and is fine with millions of them dying if need be. this is the problem with having jews in control of your country. it is the problem of jews running the US State Department and starting stupid nonsense wars. they don't care how many marines from Ohio and Texas get killed. they weren't jews, so who cares.

    Replies: @AP

  78. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz

    So I saw that video, with Ritter concluding that the war will last 'another month, maybe a little more'.. I'm as open to hearing all sides of the conflict as anyone, but in conjuction with his February 24 predictions of 'Desert Storm 2.0', I don't think I can take him very seriously. Notice Karlin, bullish as he is, is grimly forecasting 2-3 years of warfare.
    Again, as I said earlier, the serious problems Russia will soon face aren't even so much the war itself, as the effects it dragging on will have, particularly in post-Soviet space and the Middle-East, where Russian priorities and projection abilities will obviously be elsewhere.

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    Replies: @A123

    Though on the other hand, I noticed Europe is buckling *already* over buying oil for roubles, so who knows.

    There really is no such thing as a “United Europe” or “The West”. Hungary would end as a country without Russian gas, their willingness to buy in Rubles was inevitable. While not as extreme, Slovakia is in similar position. They too have openly committed to buying Russia gas.

    “European” unified policy is a myth. Authoritarian control by the Brussels-Berlin Axis is slipping badly. (1)

    Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe’s fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin’s requirement aren’t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due.

    While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany’ Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin’ demands:

    The German Traffic-Light Coalition will find some way to remove Uniper from that list. However, other sovereign nations in Europe will not use such strong arm tactics against their own people.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-european-gas-buyers-fold-russian-demands-pay-gas-rubles

  79. @A123
    @AP


    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.
     

    Your map reinforces my earlier question.

    For Ukraine to WIN. They must advance over open land to retake Mariupol. How will they achieve this?

    If Ukraine cannot WIN, the best they can achieve is a LOSE-LOSE stalemate.
    ___

    Russia's economy is harmed, yes. However Ukraine's is headed into collapse. War is expensive.

    -- What % of Ukraine's outside assistance is from Not-The-President Biden's regime?
    -- When the Hunter Biden laptop material is released, what are the chances that more details about the Burisma bribery scandal will be revealed?

    Even if there is nothing specific about Hunter's Ukrainian corruption, simple inward focus for America could reduce, or cut off, funding for Ukraine.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa

    The area around Kiev has several distinct problems for the Russians that don’t exist in the South.

    The Russians were coming from Belorussia and their supplies were coming from Russia via Belorussia. Long supply lines.

    Metropolitan city with populated suburbs and exurbs and light industry connected to the international airport.

    A dead zone around Chernobyl. Spooky.

    It’s bisected by the Dneiper and several man made dammed lakes.

    The Ukrainians could come directly out of their capital fighting. They could build up to the south and west of the Russian forces right there. Russians were hemmed in and at extended supply routes.

    The south is open country close to Russian depots. No risk of Belorussia halting supply under political considerations. Significant Russian population in the south controlling the biggest cities there.

    The Muravsky Trail suits an army heading south from Kursk and north east from Melitopol. It doesn’t suit forces in Dnipro and Kiev. Kharkov can impact this invasion route but so far the Russians have extended the front line in the south so much the Ukies are having trouble concentrating forces in Donbas to counter the sweeping arc of Russian movements out of Crimea and Luhansk.

    Crimea is like a mega unsinkable aircraft carrier.

  80. @Sean
    Russia is quite determined to not lose, and the invisible line where they decide to halt the shellacking being administered by Ukraine with American assistance by means of a very big bang is surely getting closer to being crossed all the time. All animals (and a country is a living thing) have a profound advantage on home territory. On the thermonuclear plan, Ukraine and America would cease to have an advantage. The former hasn't got them and the latter would not use them. ..

    Putin's actions indicate that he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia, so he will stop at nothing to avoid losing. If Russia began using nuclear weapons on the battlefields of Ukraine it would be because Russia was about to lose the conventional war in Ukraine. You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them. Is America going take a step into the unknown for the very highest of stakes over Ukraine?

    It seems America's aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine, yet Putin at the begining denied he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia. He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin's threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @HuggyBear

    the latter would not use them…

    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind. A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes. Any misjudgment or errors in EWS may trigger the US.

    he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia

    It is only a threat to his imperial ambitions – Ukraine has not tried irredentism on Russian soil yet, a more nationalist government might, and even then it would not be existential. Only after the US attacks Russian assets anywhere, and Russia is in the same phase as Germany and Japan were in 1945, would it be existential for Putin’s regime.

    (Tho I’d say what an occupational administration could do would damage Russians as a people, but Central Asian and Caucasian guest workers settle en masse in Russia before the war, too)

    You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them.

    The main purpose of nuclear weapons is (the threat of) annihilation.

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine

    Driving Russia to behind the borders recognized by the US and EU at least.

    he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia

    Russian troops will face off the NATO military in the unlikely case that an invasion is necessary for NATO, for a brutal way of regime change. Putin will reach for the cheget and express Hitler’s suicidal urge by striking Washington DC, in the final application of Eye for Eye, Tooth for Tooth.

    He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    China probably saw the war coming and did the best to hide it, and they dare not to come out and openly support Russia. But they probably don’t foresee nukes actually flying, only the threats.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon


    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind.
     
    Agreed. However the theory of nukes and when to use them never anticipated a situation like this so it would be an uncertain situation

    A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes.
     
    The most likely scenario would be Ukraine forcing the Russians back, and a specimen thermonuclear detonation by Russia in a relatively deserted area in mid-East Ukraine and in the rear of the Ukrainian army. Once that Rubicon had been crossed, well the invasion has already killed tens of thousands conventionally.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.
     
    In the aforementioned circumstances of Russia being forced back to its start point inside Ukraine at the begining of this war, and given the predictable extreme costliness of the Ukraine invasion (in the economics sanction aspect) it is contrary to common sense us to expect Putin to balk at use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. For that reason I think he is unlike Kim inasmuch Putin has credibility for his threats because the conventional level is where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use). Putin would have to be slow on the uptake to keep feeding his all his potential reservist and extra conscripts into the Ukrainian-American buzzsaw so that 50,000 Russians get killed and the army breaks before the idea of a nuke is contemplated.


    If everything had gone Putin's way and he had taken Ukraine with barely any resistance in a few days, sanctions would be all the West could do, so they'd be hitting them to the absolute utmost and making things economically worse for Russia than they currently are. With Munich being brought up, there was no opportunity to get any diplomatic concessions by military bluff, so he would have to do it the hard way or not at all. I think Putin has demonstrated he regards Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Whether Ukraine presents any such danger is beside the point; Putin believes so and is acting on his belief. By actually using his army. Putin's proven perception is Russia must take any and all economic risks to attain certain objectives in regard to Ukraine. There is no reason to think he will accept being pushed back to the start point of Russia before this war. He has made obscure menaces of what might happen were foreign intervention to push Russian into a corner, as he sees it; the meaning is clear enough though.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afe9XWKN5Rs

    Replies: @Beckow

  81. @sudden death
    Auto-translate of Strelkov's latest posting regarding ongoing battles:

    The area south of Izyum:

    Fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to incoming reports, the most fierce battles are taking place on the right flank - in the area of village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as "on the edge" of the offensive - in the center of the bridgehead - in the area (possibly - and on the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka . After taking the indicated town our troops will approach directly the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its interception (which will not be easy, since the settlements along this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).

    It should be noted that the battles are continuous "viscous" character. The enemy has enough manpower to - despite the lengthening of the front line in this area - nowhere to allow Russian troops to make deep breakthroughs.
    At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw his forces from the bridgehead he still has on the left bank of the Seversky Donets - from the Liman-Yampol region and the Severodonetsk ledge, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna (in which fierce fighting continued).

    It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group - near Barvenkovo ​​and Slavyansk.
    The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were not able to prevent this and surround the enemy units.

    In general, the enemy defends competently, stubbornly, controls the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear that the command is betting on WINING TIME AND INFLICTING MAXIMUM LOSS ON THE STRIKING UNITS OF THE RF - due to the unhurried surrender of the territory.

    Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is the huge Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was prepared in advance for a long defense. Its Armed Forces will definitely not surrender until the last opportunity - defending, if necessary, as a "besieged fortress". (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is of great importance - they should not be released or interned in any case - otherwise the garrison of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk will defend just as long and stubbornly, if not longer and more stubbornly). However, this "fortress" will still have to be surrounded, which is very difficult to do with the available limited forces and at such a low pace - at which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense units in advance.

    In the south - in the area of ​​Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov - the situation has not changed significantly. "Southern part of pincer" stalled.

    In the central section - near Donetsk - the situation as a whole is unchanged. There is a lull in most areas, the fighting is only in the area north of Avdiivka, where the DPR Armed Forces have had minor tactical successes.

    The general conclusion, unfortunately, is bleak: the attack of the Russian group on the encirclement and encirclement of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which did not come as a surprise, met with fierce resistance and almost certainly will not lead to a complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy ( only some 2-3 additional tank corps "out of the sky" could come in order to abruptly break through the front and connect deep in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). "Cannes" just didn't work out.

    In the best case, the enemy will be “squeezed out” from the Donbass for many weeks and even - it is possible - for several months, with heavy losses (mutual, of course). That will allow him to create, train and massively introduce strategic reserves into battle in any chosen area without much haste by the summer. And also - to crush Transnistria, gathering sufficient forces for this and not risking defeat near Donetsk during the operation.
     

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_654927

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    You always have to wait for the last meme in a text like this.

    Transnistria.

    That’s this guy’s ultimate aim. Transnistria apparently gives Ukraine a speed kill if they decided to attack it. When he begins to talk about Kaliningrad then I will worry. How long would Kaliningrad do in a proper siege and blockade? How would the Russians retaliate? When he starts talking about that we can expect war in the Baltic.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Wokechoke

    Transnistria has started mobilizing as we speak. The bigger target for them so far is Moldova, and Russia might want to use the state to trigger Romania's military commitments to Moldova, and goad NATO into directly confronting Russian and Belarussian troops.

    Transnistria will lose 90% of their exports if Moldova ends up blockading them:
    https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/reggie-graph.jpg

    Kaliningrad comes after all those.

  82. @S
    @Yellowface Anon


    This reads crypto-Marxist from the ethno-cultural labor side, and this is a weird complement.
     
    Thanks. I think the original idea with this manufactured and broadly controlled dialectic (crimethink, I know) which has been emanating from the Anglosphere of Capitalist vs Communist, Right vs Left, etc, was that the 'Left' was to correct the errors of the 'Right', and vice-versa to an extent as well.

    However, running both sides of this artificial dialectic as they have been for centuries is quite corrupting, and historically, powerful elements and their hangers on of both the Anglo-Saxon and Jewish peoples were heavily involved in the quite lucrative chattel slavery and it's trade, and still are with it's much more profitable monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state.

    Thus, the people at the very top being made up in large part of what are in reality unreformed slavers from what I can tell, which really shines through in the proto-multicultural 1851 London Times editorial, and people being creatures of habit as they are, to clarify a recently heard saying, and with the proper conditioning, I think after a planned WWIII they may be aiming for a post war global remnant population that will embrace this sentiment:

    'You will have nothing, and you will work for nothing, and you will be happy.'

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It isn’t in the Jews or Anglo-Saxons as a people, much of their middle and lower classes will be sacrificed, too. It is rather Jewish memes that signals their hosts’ exclusivity and consequentially the destruction of Gentiles, meeting an economic and political system that Anglo-Saxons pioneered. Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.

    • Replies: @S
    @Yellowface Anon

    I tend to agree about elements of a people's elites all too often being prepared to sacrifice large numbers of their own for their own ends.


    Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.
     
    Didn't the Greek Alexander as an individual plan world domination, and his men willfully follow him, that is, until they got homesick? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying. Can you elaborate some on what you mean?

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  83. S says:
    @Wielgus
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYyeHjN9tGg
    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera "I tak i proidut" ("And that's how they'll go") but Russian is a second language for me so I may be wrong.

    Replies: @S

    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”)…

    Hehe. I’m reminded of an account from the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans had taken a sizeable number of Allied soldiers prisoner. Some German officer piped up within their hearing in English as they were being marched to the rear that ‘It’s a long way to Tipperrary!’

    People can be rather cruel to newly minted POW’s that way. 😉

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @S

    In 1939-40 the British had sung about "we're going to hang out our washing on the Siegfried Line", and Germans sometimes taunted British POWs with this after capturing large numbers of them on various occasions between 1940 and 1942. It would not be until late 1944 that British and Americans started to reach parts of the Siegfried Line.

  84. S says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @S

    It isn't in the Jews or Anglo-Saxons as a people, much of their middle and lower classes will be sacrificed, too. It is rather Jewish memes that signals their hosts' exclusivity and consequentially the destruction of Gentiles, meeting an economic and political system that Anglo-Saxons pioneered. Individuals and Peoples don't plan world domination, only ideas do.

    Replies: @S

    I tend to agree about elements of a people’s elites all too often being prepared to sacrifice large numbers of their own for their own ends.

    Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.

    Didn’t the Greek Alexander as an individual plan world domination, and his men willfully follow him, that is, until they got homesick? Maybe I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying. Can you elaborate some on what you mean?

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @S

    That is one story.

    The one I like is they got to Persia and the vast majority of them said hell with Hellenistic-o-philia these Persian peoples really know what's cookin'! You can have a lot of fun if you have force on your side and the boss man is drinking himself to death.

  85. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Ron Unz

    7-10k Russians (inc. LDNR), 15-20k Ukrainians, vast uncertainty on both sides.

    As I noted, I think in the battles around Kiev it was 1:1 or thereabouts, but the current fighting in Donbass (and Kherson) is extremely loaded against the Ukrainians. Example: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7586


    Для примера: 39 бригада, штурмовавшая Сулиговку, имеет за всё время боевых действий пару десятков погибших и несколько десятков раненых, в то время, как только одна лишь 95 бригада ВСУ потеряла в боях с ними более 100 человек убитыми, находясь при этом в хорошо подготовленной обороне. А кроме 95 бригады, там же были разгромлены части 93 механизированной и 25 десантно-штурмовой бригад ВСУ.
     
    Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @prime noticer

    Reading both Western and Russian sources regarding death tolls so far during this war, one gets wildly different results, each side slanting the numbers to its own benefit. One thing that is crystal clear, is that Ukrainian civilian deaths are much higher on the Ukrainians side, according to UN sources about 2,729 Ukrainian civilians have perished a a result of Putler’s Ukrainian dragnet of searching for “Nazis”. I would guess that a good majority of these elderly folks, mothers and children that have perished are from the Eastern zone, areas that are often Russian speaking enclaves. Areas that were once friendly towards Russia, that would be nice to have on your side if you indeed win the war in this area. Not any more. People remember who was responsible for this unprovoked war and who killed their own, and wont go for any Russian BS to the contrary.

  86. @S
    @Yellowface Anon

    I tend to agree about elements of a people's elites all too often being prepared to sacrifice large numbers of their own for their own ends.


    Individuals and Peoples don’t plan world domination, only ideas do.
     
    Didn't the Greek Alexander as an individual plan world domination, and his men willfully follow him, that is, until they got homesick? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying. Can you elaborate some on what you mean?

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    That is one story.

    The one I like is they got to Persia and the vast majority of them said hell with Hellenistic-o-philia these Persian peoples really know what’s cookin’! You can have a lot of fun if you have force on your side and the boss man is drinking himself to death.

    • LOL: S
  87. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    China can’t go full hermit kingdom. Their modern citizens will not want that. They actually admire Europe and European cultures. It would reduce their lives too much.

    Some rootless coastal cosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1517093195221549057

    There will be no dawn for them.


    The balance of force has been swinging to the Ukrainian side and I don’t see how the trend can be reversed.
     
    This is almost certainly incorrect, but the truth of the matter should become clear sooner rather than later.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Some rootless coastalcosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.

    Xi is destroying the legitimacy of his rule in China’s second most important city and one that has its smartest people and retains its most cultural capital in order to do some “repressing?”

    Sorry, I don’t buy it. That would be bizarrely stupid.

    It seems likely that instead Xi really believes in Zero Covid and is trying to maintain it. His problem though is much like Putin’s problem in Ukraine, the longer he continues his effort before he inevitably gives up or realit forces him to give up, the biggest the humiliation for him.

    Now, this should therefore be an easy problem to solve. Just give up immediately. But, psychologically, since giving up today results in worse outcomes than having given up yesterday, this can prove impossibe. It feels like too much of a loss. So the face saving cultures just double down on failure instead.

    And then suddenly, a few months into their effort, they find themselves in shock and disbelief about how they got into such a mess, despite starting with so few problems. And people begin to ask themselves, what was the point?

    And maybe they continue doubling down for years and completely annihilate themselves, just to never have to admit that they were wrong. Or maybe they have a moment of clarity and give up and salvage what they can.

    Xi is at the beginning of his journey in this regard. His test of character will be in whether he gives up on Zero Covid in the next month or two, or not.

    Putin is in the middle of his journey and he has likely already failed his test of character. He has maybe a week or two where he might be able to salavage anything at all. Russian propaganda is extremely strong. They seem to be able to sell their idiots anything, but there does need to be at least some small semblance of reality, I assume.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

  88. @S
    @Wielgus


    Ukrainian POWs being marched off. One of their guards seems to be saying to camera “I tak i proidut” (“And that’s how they’ll go”)...
     
    Hehe. I'm reminded of an account from the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans had taken a sizeable number of Allied soldiers prisoner. Some German officer piped up within their hearing in English as they were being marched to the rear that 'It's a long way to Tipperrary!'

    People can be rather cruel to newly minted POW's that way. ;-)

    Replies: @Wielgus

    In 1939-40 the British had sung about “we’re going to hang out our washing on the Siegfried Line”, and Germans sometimes taunted British POWs with this after capturing large numbers of them on various occasions between 1940 and 1942. It would not be until late 1944 that British and Americans started to reach parts of the Siegfried Line.

    • Thanks: S
  89. today:
    1 dollar = 71 rubles
    day of invasion:
    1 dollar = 81 rubbles

    Russia has thought about this exact scenario for years, and is mostly accomplishing their goals. the US is currently lead by raging morons, and has handled almost everything wrong. Russia was expecting and anticipating most US moves.

    US sanctions are hurting America while mostly helping Russia. Russia is making more money now from energy sales, and is currently advancing a historical, Bretton-Woods level move to circumvent the Dollar in international trade. it may partially work.

    US economy contracts 1.4% in the first quarter. mild recession possible.

  90. Well, I didn’t end up on hold all that long. I was contacted today by my official liaison from the CFIIG to set up a mutually agreeable testing regimen and to further evaluate my claim.

    He immediately suggested doing the test inside their building with stuff under cardboard boxes. I responded by saying that it won’t work that way and that they should find a site with verifiable surveyed utilities of some sort. I’ll be kept ignorant of the location and will be driven to the test. My guesses can be cross referenced to the known utility locations.

    We’ll see what they say in response.

    It seems that there is some serious scientific credibility for dowsing. Of course study data can be found for or against, so one study versus another proves little.

    https://www.scientificexploration.org/docs/9/jse_09_1_betz.pdf

    I did dig out my copper dowsing rods and was playing around with them today. One of the explanations for the movement of the rods are slight automatic movements of the hand. This seems unlikely in my case since my rods are 3/16″ copper rod extending about 18″ horizontally. They are quite substantial, and it takes a very substantial conscious movement to get them to move in a similar way to when dowsing. I have to extend almost full grip strength on the small rod handle to get them to swing.

    As I said before, I’ll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it’s results.

    • Thanks: Mikel, RSDB
    • Replies: @RSDB
    @Barbarossa

    I happen to know dowsing is still used (or was c. 2017) by development agencies in the part of Sri Lanka mentioned in the paper, if I'm ever in Sri Lanka again I will look more into it.

    Thanks again, this topic is very fascinating!


    As I said before, I’ll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it’s results.
     
    Please do, and try to get a neutral observer to document it and so on-- but you probably know all that part of it already.
  91. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Ron Unz

    7-10k Russians (inc. LDNR), 15-20k Ukrainians, vast uncertainty on both sides.

    As I noted, I think in the battles around Kiev it was 1:1 or thereabouts, but the current fighting in Donbass (and Kherson) is extremely loaded against the Ukrainians. Example: https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7586


    Для примера: 39 бригада, штурмовавшая Сулиговку, имеет за всё время боевых действий пару десятков погибших и несколько десятков раненых, в то время, как только одна лишь 95 бригада ВСУ потеряла в боях с ними более 100 человек убитыми, находясь при этом в хорошо подготовленной обороне. А кроме 95 бригады, там же были разгромлены части 93 механизированной и 25 десантно-штурмовой бригад ВСУ.
     
    Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @prime noticer

    “Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher.”

    it’s 5:1 at least. maybe more like 6 or 7. UKR is getting pulverized. the longer it goes on the more lopsided it becomes due to UKR running out of most equipment. this conflict would have been over a while ago without the US and NATO dumping billions in equipment, years of worth of production, into a 2 month battle.

    i maintain my position that RUS would roll over any individual EU member of NATO. they don’t have the equipment or ammunition to last more than a month. meanwhile RUS forces are trundling along at like 50% intensity and unit usage.

    the reason UKR does not surrender is because the US won’t let them surrender, and because their leader is not Ukrainian, and doesn’t care if most UKR units get wiped out. he feels nothing when Ukrainians get killed and is fine with millions of them dying if need be. this is the problem with having jews in control of your country. it is the problem of jews running the US State Department and starting stupid nonsense wars. they don’t care how many marines from Ohio and Texas get killed. they weren’t jews, so who cares.

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @AP
    @prime noticer

    Lots of coping based on cluelessness about the Ukrainian people.

    Replies: @prime noticer

  92. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Some rootless coastalcosmopolitans and traitors admire them. Happily Xi is brutally repressing the bananas under the cover of Zero Covid.
     
    Xi is destroying the legitimacy of his rule in China's second most important city and one that has its smartest people and retains its most cultural capital in order to do some "repressing?"

    Sorry, I don't buy it. That would be bizarrely stupid.

    It seems likely that instead Xi really believes in Zero Covid and is trying to maintain it. His problem though is much like Putin's problem in Ukraine, the longer he continues his effort before he inevitably gives up or realit forces him to give up, the biggest the humiliation for him.

    Now, this should therefore be an easy problem to solve. Just give up immediately. But, psychologically, since giving up today results in worse outcomes than having given up yesterday, this can prove impossibe. It feels like too much of a loss. So the face saving cultures just double down on failure instead.

    And then suddenly, a few months into their effort, they find themselves in shock and disbelief about how they got into such a mess, despite starting with so few problems. And people begin to ask themselves, what was the point?

    And maybe they continue doubling down for years and completely annihilate themselves, just to never have to admit that they were wrong. Or maybe they have a moment of clarity and give up and salvage what they can.

    Xi is at the beginning of his journey in this regard. His test of character will be in whether he gives up on Zero Covid in the next month or two, or not.

    Putin is in the middle of his journey and he has likely already failed his test of character. He has maybe a week or two where he might be able to salavage anything at all. Russian propaganda is extremely strong. They seem to be able to sell their idiots anything, but there does need to be at least some small semblance of reality, I assume.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Disagree: Thulean Friend
    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.
     
    We will know more soon. Beijing has a rapidly spreading outbreak (1)

    On Thursday, residents of two Chaoyang housing compounds were ordered to stay inside and some clinics and businesses closed.

    Beijing officials reported 50 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total in this coronavirus wave to approximately150.

    The nation's health authority said there were 11,285 new cases across mainland China, with the vast majority still in Shanghai
     

    Incubation time suggests that containment has already been lost. Closing housing after multiple cases are reported is too late.

    If Beijing and its CCP Elites receive different treatment, the gig is up on the inhabitants of Peking being "above all others". If Beijing Elites are permenantly locked down in their cuckpods, that would be true to Red Communist ideals. However, it will create all sorts other problems.

    Perhaps the CCP Elites regret creating the WUHAN-19 plague at their Wuhan Institute of Virology. They really should show contrition for their lab leak impact on the planet's population.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/world/beijing-classes-online-covid-restrictions-tighten

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @Thulean Friend
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Resistance is futile. You are merely prolonging the inevitable. You vil be assimilated.

    https://i.imgur.com/KcEiknb.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

     

    Please stop embarrassing yourself. Lower Yangzi dominated cultural production from since Southern Song (12 CE), comparable to France 16-18 CE.

    North, Northwest, and Middle Yangzi are the cradles. Beijing on the northern edge of Central Plains, didn't become prominent until Ming (13 CE). There is no one on this list from the actual city of Beijing, but around a third from Lower Yangzi.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese-language_poets

    https://i.postimg.cc/853F969r/Chinas-macroregional-systems-in-relation-to-provinces-showing-metropolitan-cities.png

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://i0.wp.com/www.opindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Xi-Jinping-Winnie-the-Pooh.jpg

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What Svidomy? The lockdowns may anger the Shanghaiese enough, but they aren't overthrowing the party apparatus. They are mainly frustrated with the lockdowns and the breakdown in logistics, not the political system - a lot are planning to leave without reading Taiwanese propaganda. Xi or local officials will try to back down by debasing their "dynamic COVID Zero" concept when cases in Shanghai stabilizes at a low level, if that isn't about more isolationism.

    This is the face of Svidomy in East Asia: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4520517

    , @Wielgus
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Karlin is agreeing with Karlin. Interesting. This is a faux pas that would get your angst going in the past in a big way.

    https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/production/podcast_uploaded_episode/11311466/11311466-1609757928655-edec411b26bd2.jpg

    "Reaching for new heights" or "How low can the high fall"?

    (just a small jab Anatoly, it's good to see that you're actually still human, and not part android). :-)

    , @Philip Owen
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars" These are bloodsucking rent extractors of no value to society.

  93. @prime noticer
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "Even allowing for some exaggeration, that would be at least a 5:1 ratio, possible higher."

    it's 5:1 at least. maybe more like 6 or 7. UKR is getting pulverized. the longer it goes on the more lopsided it becomes due to UKR running out of most equipment. this conflict would have been over a while ago without the US and NATO dumping billions in equipment, years of worth of production, into a 2 month battle.

    i maintain my position that RUS would roll over any individual EU member of NATO. they don't have the equipment or ammunition to last more than a month. meanwhile RUS forces are trundling along at like 50% intensity and unit usage.

    the reason UKR does not surrender is because the US won't let them surrender, and because their leader is not Ukrainian, and doesn't care if most UKR units get wiped out. he feels nothing when Ukrainians get killed and is fine with millions of them dying if need be. this is the problem with having jews in control of your country. it is the problem of jews running the US State Department and starting stupid nonsense wars. they don't care how many marines from Ohio and Texas get killed. they weren't jews, so who cares.

    Replies: @AP

    Lots of coping based on cluelessness about the Ukrainian people.

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @AP

    obviously you don't know anything.
    https://imgur.com/a/6ynS402
    see the two guys on the right? they and their tribe DEMAND to run all european nations. and when they don't get their way, they try to start wars. they're FURIOUS that Putin doesn't allow them to run Russia and loot it. they want to make Russia pay.

    for 20 years Putin has reduced corruption in Russia and improved it as a place to live, specifically by reducing the amount of stupid stuff the tribe is allowed to do. but there are limits. he doesn't control anything in the US. and the tribe controls DC and the US State Department. and by extension, the Pentagon.

    and that's what this entire war is about. jewish demands that they run everything everywhere. US defense contractors are always happy to go along, for the big money payouts.

    Replies: @AP

  94. @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean


    the latter would not use them...
     
    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind. A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes. Any misjudgment or errors in EWS may trigger the US.

    he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia
     
    It is only a threat to his imperial ambitions - Ukraine has not tried irredentism on Russian soil yet, a more nationalist government might, and even then it would not be existential. Only after the US attacks Russian assets anywhere, and Russia is in the same phase as Germany and Japan were in 1945, would it be existential for Putin's regime.

    (Tho I'd say what an occupational administration could do would damage Russians as a people, but Central Asian and Caucasian guest workers settle en masse in Russia before the war, too)

    You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them.
     
    The main purpose of nuclear weapons is (the threat of) annihilation.

    It seems America’s aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine
     
    Driving Russia to behind the borders recognized by the US and EU at least.

    he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia
     
    Russian troops will face off the NATO military in the unlikely case that an invasion is necessary for NATO, for a brutal way of regime change. Putin will reach for the cheget and express Hitler's suicidal urge by striking Washington DC, in the final application of Eye for Eye, Tooth for Tooth.

    He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.
     
    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    China probably saw the war coming and did the best to hide it, and they dare not to come out and openly support Russia. But they probably don't foresee nukes actually flying, only the threats.

    Replies: @Sean

    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind.

    Agreed. However the theory of nukes and when to use them never anticipated a situation like this so it would be an uncertain situation

    A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes.

    The most likely scenario would be Ukraine forcing the Russians back, and a specimen thermonuclear detonation by Russia in a relatively deserted area in mid-East Ukraine and in the rear of the Ukrainian army. Once that Rubicon had been crossed, well the invasion has already killed tens of thousands conventionally.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.

    In the aforementioned circumstances of Russia being forced back to its start point inside Ukraine at the begining of this war, and given the predictable extreme costliness of the Ukraine invasion (in the economics sanction aspect) it is contrary to common sense us to expect Putin to balk at use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. For that reason I think he is unlike Kim inasmuch Putin has credibility for his threats because the conventional level is where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use). Putin would have to be slow on the uptake to keep feeding his all his potential reservist and extra conscripts into the Ukrainian-American buzzsaw so that 50,000 Russians get killed and the army breaks before the idea of a nuke is contemplated.

    If everything had gone Putin’s way and he had taken Ukraine with barely any resistance in a few days, sanctions would be all the West could do, so they’d be hitting them to the absolute utmost and making things economically worse for Russia than they currently are. With Munich being brought up, there was no opportunity to get any diplomatic concessions by military bluff, so he would have to do it the hard way or not at all. I think Putin has demonstrated he regards Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Whether Ukraine presents any such danger is beside the point; Putin believes so and is acting on his belief. By actually using his army. Putin’s proven perception is Russia must take any and all economic risks to attain certain objectives in regard to Ukraine. There is no reason to think he will accept being pushed back to the start point of Russia before this war. He has made obscure menaces of what might happen were foreign intervention to push Russian into a corner, as he sees it; the meaning is clear enough though.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Sean


    ...where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use).
     
    Simonyan over-simplified it as a loss or going nuclear, but there is a middle choice. What you refer to as commitment is Russia's unwillingness to use what they have to destroy massive numbers of 'brotherly' Ukrainians or bomb Kiev ("holy city"). But they could do it and it would end the war with horrific devastation. So far they seem to be incrementally showing what they could do hoping that Kiev gets the message and folds. I don't think they will - their sponsors rather like the damage, more the better.

    It may come down to Putin's decision: destroying what he emotionally cannot bring himself to do (Kiev) or risk destroying the whole world. My bet is that he would go for Kiev, he is by all accounts rational. By then it may not be enough - the West can escalate further.

    In similar case when Nato was slowly bombing Serbia to Middle Ages (their words), Beograd eventually gave in. But Russia - their sponsor - told them to do it.

    Replies: @Sean

  95. A123 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    We will know more soon. Beijing has a rapidly spreading outbreak (1)

    On Thursday, residents of two Chaoyang housing compounds were ordered to stay inside and some clinics and businesses closed.

    Beijing officials reported 50 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total in this coronavirus wave to approximately150.

    The nation’s health authority said there were 11,285 new cases across mainland China, with the vast majority still in Shanghai

    Incubation time suggests that containment has already been lost. Closing housing after multiple cases are reported is too late.

    If Beijing and its CCP Elites receive different treatment, the gig is up on the inhabitants of Peking being “above all others”. If Beijing Elites are permenantly locked down in their cuckpods, that would be true to Red Communist ideals. However, it will create all sorts other problems.

    Perhaps the CCP Elites regret creating the WUHAN-19 plague at their Wuhan Institute of Virology. They really should show contrition for their lab leak impact on the planet’s population.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/world/beijing-classes-online-covid-restrictions-tighten

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    Breaking news straight from the frontlines - some sneaky Chinese svidomist formations apparently managed to break out from encirclement of Shanghai and did the raid into the capital, capturing some district areas, but the people's war against them is continuing and they will be crushed there too with all the antisvidomist might of CCP:


    BEIJING/SHANGHAI, April 29 (Reuters) - China's capital Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds on Friday, with authorities ramping up contact tracing to contain a COVID-19 outbreak, while resentment at the month-long lockdown in Shanghai grew.

    In Beijing's Chaoyang district, the first to undergo mass testing this week, started the last of three rounds of screening on Friday among its 3.5 million residents. Most other districts are due for their third round of tests on Saturday.

    More apartment blocks were sealed, preventing residents from leaving, and certain spas, KTV lounges, gyms, cinemas and libraries and at least two shopping malls closed on Friday.

    "The battle against the COVID epidemic is a war, a war of resistance, a people’s war," said Liang Wannian, head of the National Health Commission's COVID response panel.
     

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-closes-more-venues-anger-shanghais-covid-lockdown-grows-2022-04-29/?utm_source=reddit.com
  96. @silviosilver
    @sher singh


    Liberalism is anti-white so a Sikh cheering on its demise is pro-white.
     
    You are both anti-liberal and anti-white, no different to haredi and islamist trash.

    Replies: @sher singh

    Join the discord. You can believe what you want, I’m more Pro-Sikh/Dharma than anything else.
    The European Gods hold a place in our heart, nothing else to say.

    If you’re unworthy of them and unarmed do you really have a place to speak?
    Think before you respond

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  97. Was it a dog-whistle, when Musk tweeted that he was going to buy McDonald’s and fix all the ice cream machines, and then followed it up with “Listen. I can’t do miracles, okay?”
    ____
    Russian oil production is falling.

  98. S says:

    A great many parallels between the Soviet – Finn ‘Winter War of 1939-40 and the present fighting in Ukraine. After the Soviet Union launched ineffective and costly attacks on multiple fronts in Nov 1939, they changed tactics at the beginning of the third month concentrating on a much narrower Southern front. Through attritional warfare, and great cost to themselves and the Finns, the Soviets were able to bring the war to a somewhat favorable conclusion for the USSR at the three and a half month point.


    Destroyed Soviet Column (Jan, 1940)

    The main focus of the Soviet attack was switched to the Karelian Isthmus. Timoshenko and Zhdanov reorganised and tightened control between different branches of service in the Red Army. They also changed tactical doctrines to meet the realities of the situation….The Soviets shipped large numbers of new tanks and artillery pieces to the theatre. Troops were increased from ten divisions to 25–26 divisions with six or seven tank brigades and several independent tank platoons as support, totalling 600,000 soldiers. On 1 February, the Red Army began a large offensive, firing 300,000 shells into the Finnish line in the first 24 hours of the bombardment.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    • Replies: @AP
    @S

    Good comparison but some differences that favor Ukraine:

    1. Finland was getting a lot less military and other help. There were some volunteers and low scale aid but for diplomatic reasons neither Germany nor the western allies were willing to provide much help. Finland was basically on its own.

    2. Much smaller population discrepancy between Ukraine and Russia vs. Finland and USSR.

    For these reasons, Ukraine has a better chance in this stage than did Finland.

    Replies: @Beckow

  99. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    Resistance is futile. You are merely prolonging the inevitable. You vil be assimilated.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Thulean Friend

    Incidentally, I read Klaus Schwab's The Great Reset a while back and it was very banal. Pretty much what one would expect from a true believer in the inherent goodness of tech and liberalism.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Thulean Friend

    A fellow Klaus appreciatooor! It is Bashibuzuk, not me, who was obsessed with him (in a negative way).

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1403076296750551045

    https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1484646176330764291

  100. @Sean
    @AP

    Withdrawal from around Kiev probably indicates a sea change in Russian methods away from attempting a real win to a downbeat unwillingness to press the action. They are now going for a slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the 'big push' never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats in meticulously planned operations while a rise in the cost of living for Westerners, people going hungry in the Third World, and boring news from Ukraine erodes Western populations' willingness to continue with open ended support of Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …slow-mo multi micro offensives strategy in which the ‘big push’ never comes but Ukraine suffers interminable tiny defeats

    That would be in effect a stalemate, I don’t think Russia could afford that politically – so their strategy must include some future break-throughs. In all wars the only public opinion that matters is the domestic one. Russia needs something to present at home as victory with costs worth it. That by definition requires the Black See coast (or most of it), to protect Crimea. It doesn’t require Kiev, Kharkov or Lviv – the opposite, most Russians don’t want the Western Ukraine, they understand that it would be a permanent headache and it would be “unjust”.

    Since this is now in effect a Nato-Russia war, the calculations could mean nothing. The bad thing about the recent dramatic escalation is that to solve it we need an agreed-on losing side. Neither side can afford to be seen as a loser meaning more trouble ahead.

  101. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird


    deporting all the Greens to a place where solar energy is more practical
     
    We might get to the point in decades when North Africa will be on the same functionality as Europe if not more, and emigration southwards happen voluntarily, similar to how Northern Europeans were moving to Spain and Portugal before the Eurozone crisis. But North Africa is also migrant exporter to Southern Europe to and you prefer racialism.

    Replies: @songbird

    Wouldn’t say that I’m a true-believer when it comes to GDP, but, still, even I have to admit that the GDP of North Africa is amazingly low.

    Maybe, there is some room for improvement? If Morocco and Algeria bury the hatchet? Or some new form of government is invented?

    Though, personally, I’d never want to live in North Africa, regardless. As far as I am concerned, it is a climatic death zone, for someone with my genes. Maybe, Southern Europeans or tannable Germanics might be interested in it.

    I doubt North Africans would want us on their turf either. I think they’ve demonstrated that pretty well, even though they do like to go North. They might tolerate retirees though, if they add something to the economy.



  102. Who stands to possibly be the biggest winner of this war, by doing mostly nothing?…

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Mr. Hack

    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.

    The Bayraktyr drone is going to sell well.

    Syria will be Turkey's to take as it pleases, a piece for Israel aside.

    The North Caucasus will fall giving Turkey a route to Central Asia and a big new market. The collapse of Russia's food industry will give Turkey an even bigger market in Russia than it has now. More than enough to make up for poor Russian tourists. As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Mr. Hack

  103. AP says:
    @S
    A great many parallels between the Soviet - Finn 'Winter War of 1939-40 and the present fighting in Ukraine. After the Soviet Union launched ineffective and costly attacks on multiple fronts in Nov 1939, they changed tactics at the beginning of the third month concentrating on a much narrower Southern front. Through attritional warfare, and great cost to themselves and the Finns, the Soviets were able to bring the war to a somewhat favorable conclusion for the USSR at the three and a half month point.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/02/Raate_road.jpg/800px-Raate_road.jpg
    Destroyed Soviet Column (Jan, 1940)

    The main focus of the Soviet attack was switched to the Karelian Isthmus. Timoshenko and Zhdanov reorganised and tightened control between different branches of service in the Red Army. They also changed tactical doctrines to meet the realities of the situation....The Soviets shipped large numbers of new tanks and artillery pieces to the theatre. Troops were increased from ten divisions to 25–26 divisions with six or seven tank brigades and several independent tank platoons as support, totalling 600,000 soldiers. On 1 February, the Red Army began a large offensive, firing 300,000 shells into the Finnish line in the first 24 hours of the bombardment.
     
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    Replies: @AP

    Good comparison but some differences that favor Ukraine:

    1. Finland was getting a lot less military and other help. There were some volunteers and low scale aid but for diplomatic reasons neither Germany nor the western allies were willing to provide much help. Finland was basically on its own.

    2. Much smaller population discrepancy between Ukraine and Russia vs. Finland and USSR.

    For these reasons, Ukraine has a better chance in this stage than did Finland.

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Two differences that favor Russia:

    - population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    - weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Given the differences it will take longer, but the result will be about the same.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

  104. @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon


    If they detect nuclear warheads heading for their soil, and nothing less than that, they will respond in kind.
     
    Agreed. However the theory of nukes and when to use them never anticipated a situation like this so it would be an uncertain situation

    A full first strike will be met with counterstrikes.
     
    The most likely scenario would be Ukraine forcing the Russians back, and a specimen thermonuclear detonation by Russia in a relatively deserted area in mid-East Ukraine and in the rear of the Ukrainian army. Once that Rubicon had been crossed, well the invasion has already killed tens of thousands conventionally.

    This is what the Jewish political commentary known as Book of Revelation does to a relatively religious and absolutely fanatical president, unlike bluffing self-interested decision makers like Kim. How ironic.
     
    In the aforementioned circumstances of Russia being forced back to its start point inside Ukraine at the begining of this war, and given the predictable extreme costliness of the Ukraine invasion (in the economics sanction aspect) it is contrary to common sense us to expect Putin to balk at use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. For that reason I think he is unlike Kim inasmuch Putin has credibility for his threats because the conventional level is where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use). Putin would have to be slow on the uptake to keep feeding his all his potential reservist and extra conscripts into the Ukrainian-American buzzsaw so that 50,000 Russians get killed and the army breaks before the idea of a nuke is contemplated.


    If everything had gone Putin's way and he had taken Ukraine with barely any resistance in a few days, sanctions would be all the West could do, so they'd be hitting them to the absolute utmost and making things economically worse for Russia than they currently are. With Munich being brought up, there was no opportunity to get any diplomatic concessions by military bluff, so he would have to do it the hard way or not at all. I think Putin has demonstrated he regards Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Whether Ukraine presents any such danger is beside the point; Putin believes so and is acting on his belief. By actually using his army. Putin's proven perception is Russia must take any and all economic risks to attain certain objectives in regard to Ukraine. There is no reason to think he will accept being pushed back to the start point of Russia before this war. He has made obscure menaces of what might happen were foreign intervention to push Russian into a corner, as he sees it; the meaning is clear enough though.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afe9XWKN5Rs

    Replies: @Beckow

    …where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use).

    Simonyan over-simplified it as a loss or going nuclear, but there is a middle choice. What you refer to as commitment is Russia’s unwillingness to use what they have to destroy massive numbers of ‘brotherly’ Ukrainians or bomb Kiev (“holy city”). But they could do it and it would end the war with horrific devastation. So far they seem to be incrementally showing what they could do hoping that Kiev gets the message and folds. I don’t think they will – their sponsors rather like the damage, more the better.

    It may come down to Putin’s decision: destroying what he emotionally cannot bring himself to do (Kiev) or risk destroying the whole world. My bet is that he would go for Kiev, he is by all accounts rational. By then it may not be enough – the West can escalate further.

    In similar case when Nato was slowly bombing Serbia to Middle Ages (their words), Beograd eventually gave in. But Russia – their sponsor – told them to do it.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Beckow

    There is no way to fight against nuclear weapons, As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA "Nuclear weapons have no military purpose, wars cannot be fought with them". The use of a nuke--even a mine--would end the conventional was because once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good., America is not going thermonuclear for anyone.

    Replies: @Ron Unz


  105. one of the biggest assholes in the history of the world, mocking Ritter for his correct Iraq call.

    i see today that the asshole called for \$33 billion (!) for Ukraine, just for the rest of 2022. that sounds like a military that is winning to me. that’s like 10 years of what the US sends to Israel per year.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @prime noticer

    Well, that video explains a lot. Can't say I blame Ritter for wanting to see Biden humiliated in Ukraine so badly, though factually it doesn't change anything.

  106. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    Please stop embarrassing yourself. Lower Yangzi dominated cultural production from since Southern Song (12 CE), comparable to France 16-18 CE.

    North, Northwest, and Middle Yangzi are the cradles. Beijing on the northern edge of Central Plains, didn’t become prominent until Ming (13 CE). There is no one on this list from the actual city of Beijing, but around a third from Lower Yangzi.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese-language_poets

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against "Chinese svidomism" ;)

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @A123, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I was trolling TL, that aside, I don't even see how this is an inaccurate assessment today, there are more Beijing think-tanks and they are patriotic and pro-Eurasian whereas Shanghai's are packed with Western stooges, it has twice Shanghai's Science production (https://www.natureindex.com/supplements/nature-index-2020-science-cities/tables/overall) and China's top two universities, etc. Modern Beijing is far superior to Shanghai on both the moral as well as pure accomplishments plane.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  107. @AP
    @prime noticer

    Lots of coping based on cluelessness about the Ukrainian people.

    Replies: @prime noticer

    obviously you don’t know anything.

    View post on imgur.com


    see the two guys on the right? they and their tribe DEMAND to run all european nations. and when they don’t get their way, they try to start wars. they’re FURIOUS that Putin doesn’t allow them to run Russia and loot it. they want to make Russia pay.

    for 20 years Putin has reduced corruption in Russia and improved it as a place to live, specifically by reducing the amount of stupid stuff the tribe is allowed to do. but there are limits. he doesn’t control anything in the US. and the tribe controls DC and the US State Department. and by extension, the Pentagon.

    and that’s what this entire war is about. jewish demands that they run everything everywhere. US defense contractors are always happy to go along, for the big money payouts.

    • Replies: @AP
    @prime noticer

    You know nothing about Ukraine and Russia. And your obsession with Jews is dumb and boring.

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much. But, as we have established, you don’t know anything about Russia or Ukraine.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

  108. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

  109. AP says:
    @prime noticer
    @AP

    obviously you don't know anything.
    https://imgur.com/a/6ynS402
    see the two guys on the right? they and their tribe DEMAND to run all european nations. and when they don't get their way, they try to start wars. they're FURIOUS that Putin doesn't allow them to run Russia and loot it. they want to make Russia pay.

    for 20 years Putin has reduced corruption in Russia and improved it as a place to live, specifically by reducing the amount of stupid stuff the tribe is allowed to do. but there are limits. he doesn't control anything in the US. and the tribe controls DC and the US State Department. and by extension, the Pentagon.

    and that's what this entire war is about. jewish demands that they run everything everywhere. US defense contractors are always happy to go along, for the big money payouts.

    Replies: @AP

    You know nothing about Ukraine and Russia. And your obsession with Jews is dumb and boring.

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much. But, as we have established, you don’t know anything about Russia or Ukraine.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @AP


    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much.
     
    And Putin's main state propTV political talk show propagandist is vehemently against Ukraine and Zelensky, but himself is Jewish too ;)

    https://img.haarets.co.il/img/1.10763855/4109408201.jpg

    https://moshiach.ru/pic/vladimir-soloviov-tfillin-600-dk.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @A123
    @AP

    I concur (again),

    Both Russia and Ukraine have Jewish communities and strong ties to the Jewish religious homeland. The idea that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict has anything to do with the practice of Judaism is absurd.

    WEF Elites had a great deal to do with this fight. And, one does not have to look far to find to find out how much they despise Palestine's indigenous Jewish population.

    PEACE 😇

  110. @Thulean Friend
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Resistance is futile. You are merely prolonging the inevitable. You vil be assimilated.

    https://i.imgur.com/KcEiknb.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Anatoly Karlin

    Incidentally, I read Klaus Schwab’s The Great Reset a while back and it was very banal. Pretty much what one would expect from a true believer in the inherent goodness of tech and liberalism.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    It has to be simple enough for inbred Windsors and Rothschilds to read the stuff.

  111. @AP
    @S

    Good comparison but some differences that favor Ukraine:

    1. Finland was getting a lot less military and other help. There were some volunteers and low scale aid but for diplomatic reasons neither Germany nor the western allies were willing to provide much help. Finland was basically on its own.

    2. Much smaller population discrepancy between Ukraine and Russia vs. Finland and USSR.

    For these reasons, Ukraine has a better chance in this stage than did Finland.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Two differences that favor Russia:

    – population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    – weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Given the differences it will take longer, but the result will be about the same.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    "Not uniformly hostile"...what part?

    If Ukrainian citizens need to see what a future Ukraine will look like under Russian influence, they need not go any further than Mariupol or Kherson to get a small taste of what awaits them. If they need further proof, all they need to do is to look at what life is like in the newly designated "republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk:


    The areas, known in Russian as Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika (DNR) and Luganskaya Narodnaya Respublika (LNR), comprise the eastern part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions respectively; the western parts have remained under Ukrainian government control even after 2014. Despite the “people’s republic” names, they have routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents, institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights. They have also presided over the collapse of industry and a catastrophic fall in living standards.
     
    For more detailed information read this eye opening article, published in March:

    https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/donbas-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine-russia-putin

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case
     
    What percentage of Finns in those parts were Commie sympathisers plus ethnic Russians versus percentage of southeastern Ukrainians wanting annexation by Russia? I suspect it’s not a big difference (remember we are discussing the areas Russia is currently invading, not Crimea or Donetsk). About 5% to 10% of Eastern Ukrainians were supporting Russia. Vyborg was about 3% Russian; not unlikely for there to have been another 5% or so Commie sympathizers.

    weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons
     
    Ukraine’s infantry is much better armed and with better weapons, but Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower (yet hasn’t achieved uncontested air superiority). Advantage Russia I suppose, but of mixed nature.

    Replies: @Beckow

  112. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

     

    Please stop embarrassing yourself. Lower Yangzi dominated cultural production from since Southern Song (12 CE), comparable to France 16-18 CE.

    North, Northwest, and Middle Yangzi are the cradles. Beijing on the northern edge of Central Plains, didn't become prominent until Ming (13 CE). There is no one on this list from the actual city of Beijing, but around a third from Lower Yangzi.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese-language_poets

    https://i.postimg.cc/853F969r/Chinas-macroregional-systems-in-relation-to-provinces-showing-metropolitan-cities.png

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against “Chinese svidomism” 😉

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @sudden death

    As an aside, do you seriously think 'Zero Covid' is appropriate as new variants become increasingly transmissible? Seems like a doomed quest. CCP had early wins with Zero Covid but "overlearned" their lesson and now can't seem to re-adapt.

    I saw some Han nationalists praising these policies, as it purges foreigners and seals off the country. From an isolationist rightoid perspective, that's defensible. But it critically hinges on you actually being successful in pursuing this policy with minimal ruptures, which the CCP clearly and manifestly is not right now.

    What was it that Darwin used to say? It's not the biggest, strongest or the fastest that survive, but those who adapt best to new circumstances.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @sudden death

    , @A123
    @sudden death


    zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down,
     
    Revenue cannot be up if prices are constant and volume is down. Somewhere you have a math problem: (1)

    Even though Russian energy exports are declining, higher prices have enabled the country's state-owned oil and gas companies to double revenue, thus stabilizing the ruble and allowing financing for President Putin's military machine.

    According to The Guardian, citing a new report of shipping movements by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has reaped a whopping €62 billion from oil, gas, and coal exports since the invasion of Ukraine began.
     

    Prices.... Not so stable.

    he is furiously coping himself
     
    It is pretty obvious who is self-serving 'cope'. Hint: It is not AK.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-fossil-fuel-revenues-double-despite-western-sanctions

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/stb-wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/28124246/Hogan-triple-facepalm.png

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sudden death

    China has more trading volume with -- Malaysia, than Russia. It never made sense to get too close.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China

    PRC's future is Eurasia integration and CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA). The smart move for Russia is get a foothold in the latter, NE Asia.

  113. @Thulean Friend
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Resistance is futile. You are merely prolonging the inevitable. You vil be assimilated.

    https://i.imgur.com/KcEiknb.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Anatoly Karlin

    A fellow Klaus appreciatooor! It is Bashibuzuk, not me, who was obsessed with him (in a negative way).

  114. @A123
    @AP


    Here are Ukrainian forests and hills:

    I would expect battles in the forested north and in the hilly center and mountainous west to be more like around Kiev.
     

    Your map reinforces my earlier question.

    For Ukraine to WIN. They must advance over open land to retake Mariupol. How will they achieve this?

    If Ukraine cannot WIN, the best they can achieve is a LOSE-LOSE stalemate.
    ___

    Russia's economy is harmed, yes. However Ukraine's is headed into collapse. War is expensive.

    -- What % of Ukraine's outside assistance is from Not-The-President Biden's regime?
    -- When the Hunter Biden laptop material is released, what are the chances that more details about the Burisma bribery scandal will be revealed?

    Even if there is nothing specific about Hunter's Ukrainian corruption, simple inward focus for America could reduce, or cut off, funding for Ukraine.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Triteleia Laxa

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    As for the damage to the “economy,” that argument might be a priority for Russia and its economy as Russia only has its pride on the line, but Ukraine has the much bigger priority of their country: Ukraine. If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Ukraine is currently enacting a defence in depth. They are making orderly withdrawals in exchange for destroying significant Russian forces. In the meantime, the provision of Western arms continues to accelerate and Ukraine near-infinite capacity to send troops to safe foreign locales to be trained on those arms.

    The second Russian attempt to shock the Ukrainians into crumbling is failing. Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming.

    The balance of forces for the next phase is essentially already decided and it is looking miserable for Russia. Every Russian decision has been in chase of failure. If they didn’t want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago. If they had wanted a decisive victory in Donbas, they would have had to ended the other offensives as soon as they met serious resistance, in order to reinforce Donbas as the main effort.

    The problem of losing in a big operation is not that you can’t change course, but that it is psychologically too difficult for most people to change course until they meet definite failure, at which point, changing course is too late, and the pattern repeats itself.

    If Putin wants to declare victory, he might find that the most passable one would be in a week, followed by an immediate ceasefire with agreement to withdraw to pre-invasion lines. Since the Russian shills and useful idiots seem to be able to buy literally anything that Putin is selling, perhaps he will pull it off.

    Propaganda is the great Russian strength as it creates fewer useful idiots for the other side to use and attracts useful idiots to Russia’s cause, but it is also their biggest weakness, it corrupts the flow of information and makes them less competent 9 times out of 10. Clean information is what drives effective decision-making.

    Meanwhile, the Western culture of self-critique, as created by the Ancient Greeks, is also both the greatest strength of the West and it’s greatest weakness. It means that useful idiots bloom in multitudes, but it also makes for better decisio-making 9 times out of 10.

    There is the problem in the West that resident foreign groups mostly don’t really do this, and are considered somewhat outside of it, but that is a long-term problem for the future and the only end result of it is that the West becomes like elsewhere.

    Personally, I don’t think this will happen. Other groups will learn to get past “saving face” and other forms of dishonesty, but it is a worthwhile point that needs to be worked on.

    Overall, Russia’s problems in this war are institutional and cultural, so they will not turn it around. They simply cannot be honest with themselves about themselves, and see their negatives and flaws, while they are also extremely vociferous in critique of everyone else.

    There is also the interesting parallel with Iraq 2, where Western forces simply couldn’t be honest about the negatives and flaws of the other, of the Iraqis that they were trying to build something far too sophisticated for, but were vociferous in self-critique.

    The West needs to keep their self-critique, but extend it to non-Western demographies in a serious and amoral manner. Russia just needs to learn from the Greeks and develop some courage and integrity.

    Optimistically, this war will help. Can Russia just see itself as the victim, super-power and everyone else at fault for their failure, though they actually won, yet again? I doubt it, though humans can really deceive themselves every far.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Triteleia Laxa


    ...for Ukraine to win they only need to survive.
     
    You were claiming until recently that Kiev was winning the war, what happened? This could be an example of the celebrated Western self-criticism that you have suddenly discovered.

    Needless to say, "self-criticism" without consequences is just empty talk. The ability to produce self-medicating empty talk seems today the main Western characteristics; you nicely display it here.

    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.
     
    Where they and Russia will be next door neighbours forever more.

    If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.
     
    Germany is not going to allow Ukraine to join Nato. If Ukraine somehow joined Germany and France would leave.

    Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming

     

    I do not think the very astounding Russian withdrawal from around Kiev indicates a inability of Russia to see when it is flogging a dead horse. So them reinforcing failure in the Donbass to the extent they become exhausted is unlikely.

    If they didn’t want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago.
     
    Maybe the Russians are hoping Ukraine will go on one of these combined arms maneuvere offensives we keep hearing about and give the Russian army a chance to use their artillery defensively. Can Ukraine drive the Russians back and even break and rout them? Quite possibly, but it is going to be like the Normandy fighting : men against machines.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.
     

    In the 60s the USSR came out of its isolation because saw an opportunity to spread its ideology throughout the world by fomenting revolution. But the tables have been turned and since 2004 it is the US that is on the ideological offensive with revolutions, especially in Ukraine.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.
     
    The invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam was done for indirect geopolitical reasons (the US army had to be got out of Saudi) and resulted in the deaths of how many Iraqis? Putin would say like Reagan did "we did what we had to do".

    Definition of reason of state: a motive for governmental action based on alleged needs or requirements of a political state regardless of possible transgressions of the rights or the moral codes of individual persons

     

  115. @Beckow
    @AP

    Two differences that favor Russia:

    - population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    - weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Given the differences it will take longer, but the result will be about the same.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    “Not uniformly hostile”…what part?

    If Ukrainian citizens need to see what a future Ukraine will look like under Russian influence, they need not go any further than Mariupol or Kherson to get a small taste of what awaits them. If they need further proof, all they need to do is to look at what life is like in the newly designated “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk:

    The areas, known in Russian as Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika (DNR) and Luganskaya Narodnaya Respublika (LNR), comprise the eastern part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions respectively; the western parts have remained under Ukrainian government control even after 2014. Despite the “people’s republic” names, they have routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents, institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights. They have also presided over the collapse of industry and a catastrophic fall in living standards.

    For more detailed information read this eye opening article, published in March:

    https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/donbas-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine-russia-putin

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    "jacobmag"? what is that?

    But ok, what you quoted could be said about almost any country. Definitely about Ukraine, Bulgaria, Baltics, some also about UK, Canada (Justin is quite something, isn't he?). In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    The question is: what are the general attitudes by eastern Ukrainians towards Russia? In a war most prefer to play it safe. There is nothing to show "uniform hostility" towards Russia, or "uniform support". We have the previous elections that were for the pro-Russian side and small numbers fighting on each side. Plus selective videos that may not represent what most people think, I have seen both.

    It is clearly not like Finland in 1940 - that may fit better Galicia and Kiev, but not the south-east. When you base your analysis on faulty analogies it backfires.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  116. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin


    It is Beijing that is China’s cultural center – the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

     

    Please stop embarrassing yourself. Lower Yangzi dominated cultural production from since Southern Song (12 CE), comparable to France 16-18 CE.

    North, Northwest, and Middle Yangzi are the cradles. Beijing on the northern edge of Central Plains, didn't become prominent until Ming (13 CE). There is no one on this list from the actual city of Beijing, but around a third from Lower Yangzi.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese-language_poets

    https://i.postimg.cc/853F969r/Chinas-macroregional-systems-in-relation-to-provinces-showing-metropolitan-cities.png

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

    I was trolling TL, that aside, I don’t even see how this is an inaccurate assessment today, there are more Beijing think-tanks and they are patriotic and pro-Eurasian whereas Shanghai’s are packed with Western stooges, it has twice Shanghai’s Science production (https://www.natureindex.com/supplements/nature-index-2020-science-cities/tables/overall) and China’s top two universities, etc. Modern Beijing is far superior to Shanghai on both the moral as well as pure accomplishments plane.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Beijing flanked by Bohai Sea a more secure position than Shanghai, and a centerpiece of NE Asia CJK integration. The Chinese are livid at Japan for coaxing an apology from Ukraine for Hirohito-Hitler comparison.

    The smart move is for Russia to play a conciliatory between China and Japan, say, give back the Kurile Islands and tell the Japanese it was favor that can be reciprocated to PRC.

    The dick move would be further incite Sino-Japanese enmity. That worked in 1936 in Xi'an Incident when Soviets/CPC turned KMT against Japan, but it sure didn't help Russia much in the long run.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

  117. @AP
    @prime noticer

    You know nothing about Ukraine and Russia. And your obsession with Jews is dumb and boring.

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much. But, as we have established, you don’t know anything about Russia or Ukraine.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much.

    And Putin’s main state propTV political talk show propagandist is vehemently against Ukraine and Zelensky, but himself is Jewish too 😉

    • LOL: AP
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @sudden death

    The only part of Putin's war machine that actually seems to be performing is its propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews and Armenians, like this man, and the always impressive Margarita Simonyan, or the redoubtable Ron Unz.

    It is amazing how they have even leveraged genuine Western Nazi sympathisers to support the prosecution of a war based on the ridiculous pretext of denazification.

    Very talent people. Even if they now shame themselves, as every lie uttered is in support of the dismemberment and murder of Ukrainians.

    Of course the most well-rounded of their information war partisans,
    will have dropped out and gone a little quiet or turned silly troll for idiots, as soon as they could see what everyone can see, which is the catastrophe that Russia has caused.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  118. @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against "Chinese svidomism" ;)

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @A123, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    As an aside, do you seriously think ‘Zero Covid’ is appropriate as new variants become increasingly transmissible? Seems like a doomed quest. CCP had early wins with Zero Covid but “overlearned” their lesson and now can’t seem to re-adapt.

    I saw some Han nationalists praising these policies, as it purges foreigners and seals off the country. From an isolationist rightoid perspective, that’s defensible. But it critically hinges on you actually being successful in pursuing this policy with minimal ruptures, which the CCP clearly and manifestly is not right now.

    What was it that Darwin used to say? It’s not the biggest, strongest or the fastest that survive, but those who adapt best to new circumstances.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Thulean Friend


    it purges foreigners and seals off the country
     
    Purging foreigners is a certain intention if that's the scenario (I won't doubt it), but domestic businesses are as damaged as foreign-owned operations. The business resumptions don't appear to disfavor foreign investments, tho the "expected" outcome is for them to voluntarily divest.
    , @sudden death
    @Thulean Friend

    idk, maybe Xi is a true believer of "population is power" trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?

    One more thing - CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population "more healthy" than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Thulean Friend

  119. A123 says: • Website
    @AP
    @prime noticer

    You know nothing about Ukraine and Russia. And your obsession with Jews is dumb and boring.

    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much. But, as we have established, you don’t know anything about Russia or Ukraine.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    I concur (again),

    Both Russia and Ukraine have Jewish communities and strong ties to the Jewish religious homeland. The idea that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict has anything to do with the practice of Judaism is absurd.

    WEF Elites had a great deal to do with this fight. And, one does not have to look far to find to find out how much they despise Palestine’s indigenous Jewish population.

    PEACE 😇

  120. Now would be the perfect time for Poland to roll its tanks westward.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Revive the Wends!

  121. @Barbarossa
    @Thulean Friend

    Incidentally, I read Klaus Schwab's The Great Reset a while back and it was very banal. Pretty much what one would expect from a true believer in the inherent goodness of tech and liberalism.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    It has to be simple enough for inbred Windsors and Rothschilds to read the stuff.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  122. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against "Chinese svidomism" ;)

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @A123, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down,

    Revenue cannot be up if prices are constant and volume is down. Somewhere you have a math problem: (1)

    Even though Russian energy exports are declining, higher prices have enabled the country’s state-owned oil and gas companies to double revenue, thus stabilizing the ruble and allowing financing for President Putin’s military machine.

    According to The Guardian, citing a new report of shipping movements by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has reaped a whopping €62 billion from oil, gas, and coal exports since the invasion of Ukraine began.

    Prices…. Not so stable.

    he is furiously coping himself

    It is pretty obvious who is self-serving ‘cope’. Hint: It is not AK.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-fossil-fuel-revenues-double-despite-western-sanctions

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    Somehow not surprised that RF energy export revenues is yet another touchy sore spot for you ;)

    Zero coviding (which is quite likely to spread further) at China's coastal supercity level started way later than RF invasion, so RF export revenue data since invasion you threw around as some refuting has nothing to do with my own original point.

    All the RF pipe dreams of $200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden's releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from $121 to hovering around $100. Considering $147 oil price in 2008 and subsequent cumulative inflation since it would not be much of exaggeration to say now oil costs about $55-65 in 2008 dollars but with contracting RF oil production.

    RF coal exports are already banned to EU, so the only remaining bright spot for RF fanatics is continuing, but shrinking (even if way too slowly) EU dependency of RF natgas imports and propaganda victories about so called rouble payments convoluted financial schemings which in fact did not change much in essence at all.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

  123. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    What Svidomy? The lockdowns may anger the Shanghaiese enough, but they aren’t overthrowing the party apparatus. They are mainly frustrated with the lockdowns and the breakdown in logistics, not the political system – a lot are planning to leave without reading Taiwanese propaganda. Xi or local officials will try to back down by debasing their “dynamic COVID Zero” concept when cases in Shanghai stabilizes at a low level, if that isn’t about more isolationism.

    This is the face of Svidomy in East Asia: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4520517

  124. @Wokechoke
    @Wielgus

    Karl was hardcore. What an extraordinary life he led. Reminds me of Harald Hardrada.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    He was but his death spelled the end of the Swedish Empire, which had been in existence for a little under a century, and Sweden had been a major player in the Thirty Years’ War. Towards the end of that conflict Sweden published a sort of propaganda poster listing all the fortresses they held, most of them in what is now Germany, as a sort of advertisement of their military successes, even though they had defeats as well as victories.
    The Cossack chieftain Mazeppa cooperated with Charles against Russia, and a pejorative Russian term for Ukrainians, especially anti-Russian ones, is mazepy. Mazeppa tends now to be presented as a hero in the Ukrainian education system and historiography whereas Tsarist Russia and the USSR both presented him as a traitor. Bohdan Khmelnytsky who led a revolt against Poland and concluded a treaty with the Russian Tsar received more favourable treatment and indeed in Soviet times a Ukrainian region was named after him and still is. As they say, the future is certain, it is only the past that keeps changing…

  125. @sudden death
    @AP


    Btw Putin has a Jewish prime minister, a Jewish business partner, and he enjoys a good relationship with Israel. People in Russia who are as obsessed with Jews as you are don’t like Putin very much.
     
    And Putin's main state propTV political talk show propagandist is vehemently against Ukraine and Zelensky, but himself is Jewish too ;)

    https://img.haarets.co.il/img/1.10763855/4109408201.jpg

    https://moshiach.ru/pic/vladimir-soloviov-tfillin-600-dk.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    The only part of Putin’s war machine that actually seems to be performing is its propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews and Armenians, like this man, and the always impressive Margarita Simonyan, or the redoubtable Ron Unz.

    It is amazing how they have even leveraged genuine Western Nazi sympathisers to support the prosecution of a war based on the ridiculous pretext of denazification.

    Very talent people. Even if they now shame themselves, as every lie uttered is in support of the dismemberment and murder of Ukrainians.

    Of course the most well-rounded of their information war partisans,
    will have dropped out and gone a little quiet or turned silly troll for idiots, as soon as they could see what everyone can see, which is the catastrophe that Russia has caused.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Very talent people.
     
    It's not related to talent.

    If you are owner of some agricultural animals, like a herd of sheep, then from their point of view, they just need to know which direction to walk where the dog does not bark at them. In the media, sheepdog is a well paid job, but I don't think it needs a lot of meritocracy to attain. The sheepdogs don't need to be very talented or sophisticated.

    After some time, people know the dogs' sounds and what kind of response to associate them with.

    It's possible even you can have a developed ideology among the government, like during collectivization of the 1930s, but the people being collectivized don't need to understand it. Power has control of the seeds, and the people would starve without them, so you don't need to teach them ideology. You just need to tell them which action to follow, i.e. to go to the collective farm, to get access to the seeds.


    propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews
     
    Extreme Zionism of Solovyov is just his personal view, not relevant for his job. It's enough currently of a politically neutral area, where he can express his personal views, without disrupting his job.

    But if Israel was in defense alliance with Ukraine, then Solovyov would have to criticize Israel as part of his job. Even now, it's a little borderline as Israeli is outsourcing things like Yandex.

  126. @Thulean Friend
    @sudden death

    As an aside, do you seriously think 'Zero Covid' is appropriate as new variants become increasingly transmissible? Seems like a doomed quest. CCP had early wins with Zero Covid but "overlearned" their lesson and now can't seem to re-adapt.

    I saw some Han nationalists praising these policies, as it purges foreigners and seals off the country. From an isolationist rightoid perspective, that's defensible. But it critically hinges on you actually being successful in pursuing this policy with minimal ruptures, which the CCP clearly and manifestly is not right now.

    What was it that Darwin used to say? It's not the biggest, strongest or the fastest that survive, but those who adapt best to new circumstances.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @sudden death

    it purges foreigners and seals off the country

    Purging foreigners is a certain intention if that’s the scenario (I won’t doubt it), but domestic businesses are as damaged as foreign-owned operations. The business resumptions don’t appear to disfavor foreign investments, tho the “expected” outcome is for them to voluntarily divest.

  127. @songbird
    Now would be the perfect time for Poland to roll its tanks westward.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Revive the Wends!

    • Agree: songbird
  128. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    Two differences that favor Russia:

    - population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    - weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Given the differences it will take longer, but the result will be about the same.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP

    population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case

    What percentage of Finns in those parts were Commie sympathisers plus ethnic Russians versus percentage of southeastern Ukrainians wanting annexation by Russia? I suspect it’s not a big difference (remember we are discussing the areas Russia is currently invading, not Crimea or Donetsk). About 5% to 10% of Eastern Ukrainians were supporting Russia. Vyborg was about 3% Russian; not unlikely for there to have been another 5% or so Commie sympathizers.

    weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons

    Ukraine’s infantry is much better armed and with better weapons, but Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower (yet hasn’t achieved uncontested air superiority). Advantage Russia I suppose, but of mixed nature.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower
     
    In a war it is "contested" until one side wins. Russia also has an advantage in fuel and general supplies. If it goes on for months (years?) that will become important.

    Regarding comparative sympathies, two things I know about Finland of those years: most Russians there (like in Vyborg) were Whites, unlikely to side with the invading Bolshies who would kill them. Finnish Commies were also comprehensively exterminated after 1918, see here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Civil_War_prison_camps

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile. (By the way, it is well known that the Finnish massacres and camps for the Reds directly led Stalin to say "we need the same, and more". Such is history.)

    In Ukraine's east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region. In a war it is hard to get true opinions. But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia. Are they all hired actors? In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today. We will soon find out.

    Replies: @AP

  129. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian


    ... was this war really worth it?
     
    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/657/770/7e4.jpg

    I am sure that history will assess a victorious war positively on account for arguments I have already made here and elsewhere, Putin will be hailed as one of Russia's greatest leaders.

    Obviously I or at least my reputation and status will not survive a lost war any more so than Putinism if not the Russian Federation itself, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong on this, I already said I will permanently abandon all political and related commentary given that it turned out to be so negative value added. But "if" is the operative word here.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @A123

    AK,

    If you are to reenter with 4CHAN style artwork. May I suggest some additional options?

    PEACE 😇

     
     

    • LOL: silviosilver
  130. @prime noticer
    https://twitter.com/UsefulIdiotpod/status/1518986960026677249
    one of the biggest assholes in the history of the world, mocking Ritter for his correct Iraq call.

    i see today that the asshole called for $33 billion (!) for Ukraine, just for the rest of 2022. that sounds like a military that is winning to me. that's like 10 years of what the US sends to Israel per year.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Well, that video explains a lot. Can’t say I blame Ritter for wanting to see Biden humiliated in Ukraine so badly, though factually it doesn’t change anything.

  131. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
    @Wielgus


    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.
     
    If they landed in Wuhan (Central China) they would be caged and infected with experimental Coronavirus.

    Maybe that is the missing link. Bat like aliens, not terrestrial ones. 😂

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  132. A123 says: • Website
    @Wielgus
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    Replies: @A123

    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.

    If they landed in Wuhan (Central China) they would be caged and infected with experimental Coronavirus.

    Maybe that is the missing link. Bat like aliens, not terrestrial ones. 😂

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Some needs to watch that Chinese movie about the breakout in Wuhan and reduce the plot down for us.

  133. @Triteleia Laxa
    @A123

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    As for the damage to the "economy," that argument might be a priority for Russia and its economy as Russia only has its pride on the line, but Ukraine has the much bigger priority of their country: Ukraine. If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Ukraine is currently enacting a defence in depth. They are making orderly withdrawals in exchange for destroying significant Russian forces. In the meantime, the provision of Western arms continues to accelerate and Ukraine near-infinite capacity to send troops to safe foreign locales to be trained on those arms.

    The second Russian attempt to shock the Ukrainians into crumbling is failing. Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming.

    The balance of forces for the next phase is essentially already decided and it is looking miserable for Russia. Every Russian decision has been in chase of failure. If they didn't want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago. If they had wanted a decisive victory in Donbas, they would have had to ended the other offensives as soon as they met serious resistance, in order to reinforce Donbas as the main effort.

    The problem of losing in a big operation is not that you can't change course, but that it is psychologically too difficult for most people to change course until they meet definite failure, at which point, changing course is too late, and the pattern repeats itself.

    If Putin wants to declare victory, he might find that the most passable one would be in a week, followed by an immediate ceasefire with agreement to withdraw to pre-invasion lines. Since the Russian shills and useful idiots seem to be able to buy literally anything that Putin is selling, perhaps he will pull it off.

    Propaganda is the great Russian strength as it creates fewer useful idiots for the other side to use and attracts useful idiots to Russia's cause, but it is also their biggest weakness, it corrupts the flow of information and makes them less competent 9 times out of 10. Clean information is what drives effective decision-making.

    Meanwhile, the Western culture of self-critique, as created by the Ancient Greeks, is also both the greatest strength of the West and it's greatest weakness. It means that useful idiots bloom in multitudes, but it also makes for better decisio-making 9 times out of 10.

    There is the problem in the West that resident foreign groups mostly don't really do this, and are considered somewhat outside of it, but that is a long-term problem for the future and the only end result of it is that the West becomes like elsewhere.

    Personally, I don't think this will happen. Other groups will learn to get past "saving face" and other forms of dishonesty, but it is a worthwhile point that needs to be worked on.

    Overall, Russia's problems in this war are institutional and cultural, so they will not turn it around. They simply cannot be honest with themselves about themselves, and see their negatives and flaws, while they are also extremely vociferous in critique of everyone else.

    There is also the interesting parallel with Iraq 2, where Western forces simply couldn't be honest about the negatives and flaws of the other, of the Iraqis that they were trying to build something far too sophisticated for, but were vociferous in self-critique.

    The West needs to keep their self-critique, but extend it to non-Western demographies in a serious and amoral manner. Russia just needs to learn from the Greeks and develop some courage and integrity.

    Optimistically, this war will help. Can Russia just see itself as the victim, super-power and everyone else at fault for their failure, though they actually won, yet again? I doubt it, though humans can really deceive themselves every far.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative "superpower" does when it acts, should remind people that we're far from perfect, but we're orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean

    …for Ukraine to win they only need to survive.

    You were claiming until recently that Kiev was winning the war, what happened? This could be an example of the celebrated Western self-criticism that you have suddenly discovered.

    Needless to say, “self-criticism” without consequences is just empty talk. The ability to produce self-medicating empty talk seems today the main Western characteristics; you nicely display it here.

  134. @AP
    @Beckow


    population in the south-east-Donbas plus is not uniformly hostile to Russia (an understatement!); in Finland that was not the case
     
    What percentage of Finns in those parts were Commie sympathisers plus ethnic Russians versus percentage of southeastern Ukrainians wanting annexation by Russia? I suspect it’s not a big difference (remember we are discussing the areas Russia is currently invading, not Crimea or Donetsk). About 5% to 10% of Eastern Ukrainians were supporting Russia. Vyborg was about 3% Russian; not unlikely for there to have been another 5% or so Commie sympathizers.

    weapons difference is more dramatic and it is too late to give Kiev better weapons
     
    Ukraine’s infantry is much better armed and with better weapons, but Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower (yet hasn’t achieved uncontested air superiority). Advantage Russia I suppose, but of mixed nature.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower

    In a war it is “contested” until one side wins. Russia also has an advantage in fuel and general supplies. If it goes on for months (years?) that will become important.

    Regarding comparative sympathies, two things I know about Finland of those years: most Russians there (like in Vyborg) were Whites, unlikely to side with the invading Bolshies who would kill them. Finnish Commies were also comprehensively exterminated after 1918, see here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Civil_War_prison_camps

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile. (By the way, it is well known that the Finnish massacres and camps for the Reds directly led Stalin to say “we need the same, and more”. Such is history.)

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region. In a war it is hard to get true opinions. But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia. Are they all hired actors? In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today. We will soon find out.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile.
     
    Sure, but there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region.
     
    Pro-Russian in the context of an invasion is not the same thing as not voting for Poroshenko. Even previously Russia-friendly politicians like Vilkul are actively involved in resisting the invader. The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10% (lower n places like Kherson, higher in Mariupol).

    But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia.
     
    Sure, if 10% of the population in this region supports Russia one can easily find such examples.

    In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?
     
    It's telling that the Russians couldn't find any crowds to support them at all in Kherson, unlike in Sevastopol. Kherson only saw large pro-Ukrainian demonstrations. Lucky for Russia that it was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev.

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today
     
    It was probably single digit percentage support in both cases, if it was a couple % higher in SE Ukraine it's not a big difference.

    Replies: @Beckow

  135. @A123
    @Wielgus


    There is a Chinese joke about what would happen if creatures from outer space landed in China. If they landed in Beijing, the locals would want to study them. If they landed in Shanghai, the locals would want to make commercial agreements with them. If they landed in Guangzhou (south China) the locals would want to eat them.
     
    If they landed in Wuhan (Central China) they would be caged and infected with experimental Coronavirus.

    Maybe that is the missing link. Bat like aliens, not terrestrial ones. 😂

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Some needs to watch that Chinese movie about the breakout in Wuhan and reduce the plot down for us.

  136. @Triteleia Laxa
    @A123

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    As for the damage to the "economy," that argument might be a priority for Russia and its economy as Russia only has its pride on the line, but Ukraine has the much bigger priority of their country: Ukraine. If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Ukraine is currently enacting a defence in depth. They are making orderly withdrawals in exchange for destroying significant Russian forces. In the meantime, the provision of Western arms continues to accelerate and Ukraine near-infinite capacity to send troops to safe foreign locales to be trained on those arms.

    The second Russian attempt to shock the Ukrainians into crumbling is failing. Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming.

    The balance of forces for the next phase is essentially already decided and it is looking miserable for Russia. Every Russian decision has been in chase of failure. If they didn't want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago. If they had wanted a decisive victory in Donbas, they would have had to ended the other offensives as soon as they met serious resistance, in order to reinforce Donbas as the main effort.

    The problem of losing in a big operation is not that you can't change course, but that it is psychologically too difficult for most people to change course until they meet definite failure, at which point, changing course is too late, and the pattern repeats itself.

    If Putin wants to declare victory, he might find that the most passable one would be in a week, followed by an immediate ceasefire with agreement to withdraw to pre-invasion lines. Since the Russian shills and useful idiots seem to be able to buy literally anything that Putin is selling, perhaps he will pull it off.

    Propaganda is the great Russian strength as it creates fewer useful idiots for the other side to use and attracts useful idiots to Russia's cause, but it is also their biggest weakness, it corrupts the flow of information and makes them less competent 9 times out of 10. Clean information is what drives effective decision-making.

    Meanwhile, the Western culture of self-critique, as created by the Ancient Greeks, is also both the greatest strength of the West and it's greatest weakness. It means that useful idiots bloom in multitudes, but it also makes for better decisio-making 9 times out of 10.

    There is the problem in the West that resident foreign groups mostly don't really do this, and are considered somewhat outside of it, but that is a long-term problem for the future and the only end result of it is that the West becomes like elsewhere.

    Personally, I don't think this will happen. Other groups will learn to get past "saving face" and other forms of dishonesty, but it is a worthwhile point that needs to be worked on.

    Overall, Russia's problems in this war are institutional and cultural, so they will not turn it around. They simply cannot be honest with themselves about themselves, and see their negatives and flaws, while they are also extremely vociferous in critique of everyone else.

    There is also the interesting parallel with Iraq 2, where Western forces simply couldn't be honest about the negatives and flaws of the other, of the Iraqis that they were trying to build something far too sophisticated for, but were vociferous in self-critique.

    The West needs to keep their self-critique, but extend it to non-Western demographies in a serious and amoral manner. Russia just needs to learn from the Greeks and develop some courage and integrity.

    Optimistically, this war will help. Can Russia just see itself as the victim, super-power and everyone else at fault for their failure, though they actually won, yet again? I doubt it, though humans can really deceive themselves every far.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative "superpower" does when it acts, should remind people that we're far from perfect, but we're orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean

    No, for Ukraine to win they only need to survive. Russia will go home. Ukrainians are in their home.

    Where they and Russia will be next door neighbours forever more.

    If they concede territory without joining NATO, they just open themselves up to another Russian invasion in the future, but make their own chances of surviving much worse in that conflict.

    Germany is not going to allow Ukraine to join Nato. If Ukraine somehow joined Germany and France would leave.

    Ukraine will emerge from this ohasee of the with their frontline forces intact, their opponent exhausted and a large number of serious and well-equipped reinforcements incoming

    I do not think the very astounding Russian withdrawal from around Kiev indicates a inability of Russia to see when it is flogging a dead horse. So them reinforcing failure in the Donbass to the extent they become exhausted is unlikely.

    If they didn’t want to be outmatched in two weeks time, they would have had to nationally mobilise a month ago.

    Maybe the Russians are hoping Ukraine will go on one of these combined arms maneuvere offensives we keep hearing about and give the Russian army a chance to use their artillery defensively. Can Ukraine drive the Russians back and even break and rout them? Quite possibly, but it is going to be like the Normandy fighting : men against machines.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    In the 60s the USSR came out of its isolation because saw an opportunity to spread its ideology throughout the world by fomenting revolution. But the tables have been turned and since 2004 it is the US that is on the ideological offensive with revolutions, especially in Ukraine.

    As for the West, seeing what an alternative “superpower” does when it acts, should remind people that we’re far from perfect, but we’re orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

    The invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam was done for indirect geopolitical reasons (the US army had to be got out of Saudi) and resulted in the deaths of how many Iraqis? Putin would say like Reagan did “we did what we had to do”.

    Definition of reason of state: a motive for governmental action based on alleged needs or requirements of a political state regardless of possible transgressions of the rights or the moral codes of individual persons

  137. @Wokechoke
    @sudden death

    You always have to wait for the last meme in a text like this.

    Transnistria.

    That’s this guy’s ultimate aim. Transnistria apparently gives Ukraine a speed kill if they decided to attack it. When he begins to talk about Kaliningrad then I will worry. How long would Kaliningrad do in a proper siege and blockade? How would the Russians retaliate? When he starts talking about that we can expect war in the Baltic.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Transnistria has started mobilizing as we speak. The bigger target for them so far is Moldova, and Russia might want to use the state to trigger Romania’s military commitments to Moldova, and goad NATO into directly confronting Russian and Belarussian troops.

    Transnistria will lose 90% of their exports if Moldova ends up blockading them:
    Kaliningrad comes after all those.

  138. @Ron Unz
    @Thulean Friend


    Kofman has a new episode up, too...I just finished listening to it, and it’s pretty pessimistic on Russia’s chances (barring a general mobilisation, in which all bets are off).
     
    Well, just to get both sides, I listened to the entire Kofman podcast, and didn't find him all that persuasive.

    Just as you suggested, he seems to be convinced that Russia has suffered a severe defeat so far, with heavy losses, and the current push is Russia's last effort. He even seemed to think that the Ukrainians might be able to launch a powerful counter-attack in the near future, defeat the Russians and drive them out of the Donbas region. I'm very, very skeptical.

    My impression---just an impression---is that the Ukrainians have minimal surviving operational armor and air power. Since their side totally controls the propaganda-war and Tweets so heavily, I asked the pro-Ukrainians here if they could find any visual evidence that the Ukrainians have any surviving tank units. Maybe a Tweet showing a 30 tank counter-attack by the Ukrainians and there wasn't anything. The Ukrainians started off with thousands of tanks, so that seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

    Kofman talked about NATO reequipping the Ukrainians with powerful forces, but I think Ritter is correct that there just isn't time for that to have any effect. The MoA blogger, who has a German military background, also pointed out that it would take many months of training for totally new equipment to be usable by the Ukrainians.

    It really would be petty interesting to hear Kofman debate Ritter, and I'm surprised that no one has tried to arrange something like that. But as of now, I think Ritter is probably correct.

    However, here's the crucial point, as demonstrated during the Iraq War. If Kofman took Ritter's positions, he'd soon be fired and become totally unemployable, regardless of whether or not he was proven right. But even if Ritter turns out to be 100% correct and Kofman 100% wrong, Kofman will still have his job since everyone else in his industry had said the same thing.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Dmitry

    Maybe write something to summarize a bit Ritter and Kofman positions in the longer videos (which were more than an hour). At least in my case I didn’t had time to watch the long videos you posted. We are (some of us, definitely not AP and Mr Hack), people born in the 1990s. We became too addicted to videos with tanks explosions and pictures of maps, in our YouTube watching.

    If these are military experts (you also said Macgregor), there must be something very useful in their debate, unlike certain other (non-expert) people, who just contribute noise.

    Even if one is completely wrong, another is completely right. It could show some different style of reasoning in the military expert community.

    What are the falsifiable things you can extract from their description of the war, that could be interesting in the next months? Then we can compare with other people of the military expert community.

  139. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneaker.. undecipherable

    Perhaps unintentionally from you, but my vanity experiences a complement, especially how you added the word “cosmopolitan”.

    My ego is vain enough, that from this single fact you add “cosmopolitan”, I started to feel more warmly to you again and almost wanted to apologize for saying you posted fake news last month (although posting fake news was still weak sauce).

    If my posts are giving an impression of “cosmopolitan”, then my writing skills must be improving. I remember a few years, my posts were only resulting in claims of “autism”. I used to have about five users claiming I have “autism”, which not the impression I wanted to create lol.

    I have less illusion about “Jew” than you, as I found many Jews are provincial rednecks, neither very intelligent, and not exactly a cosmopolitan either elite some people like to imagine. From your description of me, I’m envisaging a sophisticated financier with New York penthouse and underground bunker where he keeps WuTang first edition vinyl, carefully polished 1950s Porsche and fresh boxes of Nike Air Force 1.

    My origin is just lower class Russians, which disappear in the family tree, to small villages, i.e. with zero influence in history and world events . A grandfather with Jewish roots, which is more exciting, trace the roots to authentic Yiddish names like from Sholem Aleichem stories, but we couldn’t trace many generations, also to unknown villages, i.e. even non-Russian, Jewish branch in our family ancestry, are probably from an even more lower class tree than the Russian branch.

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.

    I saw it was very postmodernist, Dada trolling of Russian nationalism, as expected from people of your origin, that has an education in San Francisco and London, and more or less the opposite of any stereotype of nowadays a little too much persecuted (although not without reason) Russian nationalists.

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you. I considered his sentiment to be an honor and didn’t even say anything to damage it, but I believe AP has to disappoint him.

    But in your more aggressive comments of recent weeks, I’m assuming you are trolling but I’m starting to feel like Ray Liotta in a “Goodfellas” clips. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Take it from me as an East Asian, Karlin didn't jump out at me as "not looking Russian enough".

    And its not like these things aren't common, Sun Yat-sen is from Guangdong, regarded by many from core Han regions as full of uncultured Austronesian untermensch, managed to (semi) successfully shill for Han nationalism, later even "Five Races" ROC nationalism, and still considered the father of "Taiwan".

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @silviosilver
    @Dmitry


    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.
     
    What's the backstory of his accent? Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That's the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some "local flavor" accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you.
     
    Lol, hardly a surprise that the internet's premier racial straw-clutcher would feel that way, even if he was pouring it on thick with "people of color" remark (assuming he actually made it, and it's not just your own gloss).

    If they ever remake "My Fair Lady," with the by now customary replacement of a white character with a POC, I suggest, in Yahya's honor, an Arab trying to learn the Received Pronunciation with the phrase: "It is plain as rain they can pass in Spain."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmADMB2utAo

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Thulean Friend

  140. @Triteleia Laxa
    @sudden death

    The only part of Putin's war machine that actually seems to be performing is its propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews and Armenians, like this man, and the always impressive Margarita Simonyan, or the redoubtable Ron Unz.

    It is amazing how they have even leveraged genuine Western Nazi sympathisers to support the prosecution of a war based on the ridiculous pretext of denazification.

    Very talent people. Even if they now shame themselves, as every lie uttered is in support of the dismemberment and murder of Ukrainians.

    Of course the most well-rounded of their information war partisans,
    will have dropped out and gone a little quiet or turned silly troll for idiots, as soon as they could see what everyone can see, which is the catastrophe that Russia has caused.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Very talent people.

    It’s not related to talent.

    If you are owner of some agricultural animals, like a herd of sheep, then from their point of view, they just need to know which direction to walk where the dog does not bark at them. In the media, sheepdog is a well paid job, but I don’t think it needs a lot of meritocracy to attain. The sheepdogs don’t need to be very talented or sophisticated.

    After some time, people know the dogs’ sounds and what kind of response to associate them with.

    It’s possible even you can have a developed ideology among the government, like during collectivization of the 1930s, but the people being collectivized don’t need to understand it. Power has control of the seeds, and the people would starve without them, so you don’t need to teach them ideology. You just need to tell them which action to follow, i.e. to go to the collective farm, to get access to the seeds.

    propaganda wing; which seems to be run by Jews

    Extreme Zionism of Solovyov is just his personal view, not relevant for his job. It’s enough currently of a politically neutral area, where he can express his personal views, without disrupting his job.

    But if Israel was in defense alliance with Ukraine, then Solovyov would have to criticize Israel as part of his job. Even now, it’s a little borderline as Israeli is outsourcing things like Yandex.

  141. The simple fact is that Russia cannot possibly win this war against the west.

    Russia is still mired in the old world superstition of Christianity and can not behave rationally.

    On the other hand, Europe has moved away from superstition and has embraced the raw and pure reason of the enlightenment and science.
    Science builds great armies and the technology of Europe will reign supreme.

    For example, consider this opening ceremony of a recent Tunnel project in Switzerland. What has Russia to compare to this?

    https://rumble.com/v12tpgg-switzerland-opens-tunnel.html

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @nickels

    Unbeatable. I thought Swiss were more level-headed but when it comes to opening tunnels there is always some darkness. I can't wait until that has an uncontested rule all over Europe.

    Where the f..k are the swarthy migrants when one needs them? They couldn't possibly be worse...

    Replies: @nickels

  142. Any tabulation of the casualties and losses in the Falklands War should include the number of whales killed by both sides.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird

    I thought you were making this up, but apparently it really happened:
    https://www.news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/news-story/92e895efd40db654fa41a62a3312f4c0

    I guess you could count them as neutral collateral damage, like Swiss or Irish killed in bombing raids during WW2? So there'd have to be a category for "neutral victims (at least three whales)" on the relevant Wikipedia page.

    Replies: @songbird

  143. @Beckow
    @AP


    Russia has an advantage in long range missiles and airpower
     
    In a war it is "contested" until one side wins. Russia also has an advantage in fuel and general supplies. If it goes on for months (years?) that will become important.

    Regarding comparative sympathies, two things I know about Finland of those years: most Russians there (like in Vyborg) were Whites, unlikely to side with the invading Bolshies who would kill them. Finnish Commies were also comprehensively exterminated after 1918, see here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Civil_War_prison_camps

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile. (By the way, it is well known that the Finnish massacres and camps for the Reds directly led Stalin to say "we need the same, and more". Such is history.)

    In Ukraine's east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region. In a war it is hard to get true opinions. But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia. Are they all hired actors? In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today. We will soon find out.

    Replies: @AP

    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile.

    Sure, but there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region.

    Pro-Russian in the context of an invasion is not the same thing as not voting for Poroshenko. Even previously Russia-friendly politicians like Vilkul are actively involved in resisting the invader. The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10% (lower n places like Kherson, higher in Mariupol).

    But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia.

    Sure, if 10% of the population in this region supports Russia one can easily find such examples.

    In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?

    It’s telling that the Russians couldn’t find any crowds to support them at all in Kherson, unlike in Sevastopol. Kherson only saw large pro-Ukrainian demonstrations. Lucky for Russia that it was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev.

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today

    It was probably single digit percentage support in both cases, if it was a couple % higher in SE Ukraine it’s not a big difference.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

     

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don't know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%
     
    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev
     
    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul's wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that "resisting". But you can't believe all you hear.

    Replies: @A123, @Wielgus, @AP

  144. @nickels
    The simple fact is that Russia cannot possibly win this war against the west.

    Russia is still mired in the old world superstition of Christianity and can not behave rationally.

    On the other hand, Europe has moved away from superstition and has embraced the raw and pure reason of the enlightenment and science.
    Science builds great armies and the technology of Europe will reign supreme.

    For example, consider this opening ceremony of a recent Tunnel project in Switzerland. What has Russia to compare to this?

    https://rumble.com/v12tpgg-switzerland-opens-tunnel.html

    Replies: @Beckow

    Unbeatable. I thought Swiss were more level-headed but when it comes to opening tunnels there is always some darkness. I can’t wait until that has an uncontested rule all over Europe.

    Where the f..k are the swarthy migrants when one needs them? They couldn’t possibly be worse…

    • Replies: @nickels
    @Beckow

    Well, Russia is the third Rome.
    Maybe its time for Rome to stuff the Pagans back into the can throughout Europe once again.

  145. @A123
    @sudden death


    zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down,
     
    Revenue cannot be up if prices are constant and volume is down. Somewhere you have a math problem: (1)

    Even though Russian energy exports are declining, higher prices have enabled the country's state-owned oil and gas companies to double revenue, thus stabilizing the ruble and allowing financing for President Putin's military machine.

    According to The Guardian, citing a new report of shipping movements by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia has reaped a whopping €62 billion from oil, gas, and coal exports since the invasion of Ukraine began.
     

    Prices.... Not so stable.

    he is furiously coping himself
     
    It is pretty obvious who is self-serving 'cope'. Hint: It is not AK.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-fossil-fuel-revenues-double-despite-western-sanctions

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/stb-wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/28124246/Hogan-triple-facepalm.png

    Replies: @sudden death

    Somehow not surprised that RF energy export revenues is yet another touchy sore spot for you 😉

    Zero coviding (which is quite likely to spread further) at China’s coastal supercity level started way later than RF invasion, so RF export revenue data since invasion you threw around as some refuting has nothing to do with my own original point.

    All the RF pipe dreams of \$200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden’s releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100. Considering \$147 oil price in 2008 and subsequent cumulative inflation since it would not be much of exaggeration to say now oil costs about \$55-65 in 2008 dollars but with contracting RF oil production.

    RF coal exports are already banned to EU, so the only remaining bright spot for RF fanatics is continuing, but shrinking (even if way too slowly) EU dependency of RF natgas imports and propaganda victories about so called rouble payments convoluted financial schemings which in fact did not change much in essence at all.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death


    zero coviding brought oil down from $121 to hovering around $100
     
    A more rational way of seeing it is lockdowns as extreme fuel rationing. Anything but "containing" COVID!
    , @A123
    @sudden death


    All the RF pipe dreams of $200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden’s releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from $121 to hovering around $100.
     
    -- Is there any evidence RF was intentionally targeting $200 oil? No.
    -- The effect of Not-The-President Biden's SPR releases is negligible.
    -- If China permentry stops their economy that would be bad for Russia long term oil sales to China. Does anyone think it is permanent? No.

    Crowning over temporary a situation, leaves you holding a non-existent victory.

    PEACE 😇
  146. @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin


    cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneaker.. undecipherable
     
    Perhaps unintentionally from you, but my vanity experiences a complement, especially how you added the word "cosmopolitan".

    My ego is vain enough, that from this single fact you add "cosmopolitan", I started to feel more warmly to you again and almost wanted to apologize for saying you posted fake news last month (although posting fake news was still weak sauce).

    If my posts are giving an impression of "cosmopolitan", then my writing skills must be improving. I remember a few years, my posts were only resulting in claims of "autism". I used to have about five users claiming I have "autism", which not the impression I wanted to create lol.

    I have less illusion about "Jew" than you, as I found many Jews are provincial rednecks, neither very intelligent, and not exactly a cosmopolitan either elite some people like to imagine. From your description of me, I'm envisaging a sophisticated financier with New York penthouse and underground bunker where he keeps WuTang first edition vinyl, carefully polished 1950s Porsche and fresh boxes of Nike Air Force 1.

    My origin is just lower class Russians, which disappear in the family tree, to small villages, i.e. with zero influence in history and world events . A grandfather with Jewish roots, which is more exciting, trace the roots to authentic Yiddish names like from Sholem Aleichem stories, but we couldn't trace many generations, also to unknown villages, i.e. even non-Russian, Jewish branch in our family ancestry, are probably from an even more lower class tree than the Russian branch.

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, "idiosyncratic" accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a "Russian nationalist", I didn't consider it undecipherable.

    I saw it was very postmodernist, Dada trolling of Russian nationalism, as expected from people of your origin, that has an education in San Francisco and London, and more or less the opposite of any stereotype of nowadays a little too much persecuted (although not without reason) Russian nationalists.

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers "Russians" to be "people of color" that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you. I considered his sentiment to be an honor and didn't even say anything to damage it, but I believe AP has to disappoint him.

    But in your more aggressive comments of recent weeks, I'm assuming you are trolling but I'm starting to feel like Ray Liotta in a "Goodfellas" clips. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @silviosilver

    Take it from me as an East Asian, Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.

    And its not like these things aren’t common, Sun Yat-sen is from Guangdong, regarded by many from core Han regions as full of uncultured Austronesian untermensch, managed to (semi) successfully shill for Han nationalism, later even “Five Races” ROC nationalism, and still considered the father of “Taiwan”.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I guess the closer analogy is white nationalism movement in America, rather than Taiwan (Taiwan would be like if anti-Bolshevik forces ruled on an island after the civil war) . Equivalent probably doesn't exist in China, and perhaps a sign of the Chinese maturity.


    Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.
     
    There is ethnic meaning of Russian and citizenship meaning. Russia has hundreds of nationalities, of every appearance. But the Russian people, only in specifically national sense (let's say old words), are a European race, with European appearance only.

    If you don't have European appearance, nobody will consider you Russian in this sense, at least for the older generation of people. People who were living in Soviet times, when ethnic categorization was important. Older people see nationality as one of the most important things description of peoples' appearance. Therefore, brown people, are not considered Russian in the old sense, even if they have Russian citizenship.

    But modern Russian imperialism, is including all the races in the Russian Federation, as well as some outside it. Putin is claim that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, as justification for invasion of Ukraine. So, it is a civil war. But the other half of it, is Russian imperialism in opposition to "nationalists, Nazis, etc", and in Russian media, always "fighting nationalists".

    So in the current war, Putin is saying, with some mix of contradictions..

    Putin said, “When I see examples of such heroism as the feat of a young man — Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, a native of Dagestan, a Lak by nationality, our other soldiers, I want to say: I am a Lak, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, Ingush, Russian, Tatar, Jew, Mordvin, Ossetian.” Putin said, stressing that it is simply impossible to list all of Russia’s more than 300 national and ethnic groups. “I am proud that I am part of this world, part of the mighty, strong and multinational people of Russia. At the same time, I will never give up my belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Even despite that some residents of Ukraine are intimidated, many are fooled by Nazi, nationalist propaganda, and someone consciously, of course, follow the path of Bandera.”
    https://gazetaingush.ru/news/gorzhus-tem-chto-ya-chast-moguchego-silnogo-mnogonacionalnogo-naroda-rossii-putin

    Replies: @Pixo, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  147. @Thulean Friend
    @sudden death

    As an aside, do you seriously think 'Zero Covid' is appropriate as new variants become increasingly transmissible? Seems like a doomed quest. CCP had early wins with Zero Covid but "overlearned" their lesson and now can't seem to re-adapt.

    I saw some Han nationalists praising these policies, as it purges foreigners and seals off the country. From an isolationist rightoid perspective, that's defensible. But it critically hinges on you actually being successful in pursuing this policy with minimal ruptures, which the CCP clearly and manifestly is not right now.

    What was it that Darwin used to say? It's not the biggest, strongest or the fastest that survive, but those who adapt best to new circumstances.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @sudden death

    idk, maybe Xi is a true believer of “population is power” trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?

    One more thing – CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population “more healthy” than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    Part of the problem for China to end "zero covid", can be vaccine efficacy.

    If they are not confident about the efficacy of vaccine they used, but they do not want to import foreign vaccines. Therefore, they would need to develop new vaccines. Taiwan, to compare, has used Western vaccines.

    However, there is one study claiming that Sinovac is 98% protection, which would be sufficient if true.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256596.shtml

    China should now probably go to not such a "zero covid" which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but "semi-zero covid" strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    Replies: @216

    , @Thulean Friend
    @sudden death


    maybe Xi is a true believer of “population is power” trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?
     
    https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/24838.jpeg

    Foregone births is a much bigger problem if you're concerned with population size. True, most countries saw Covid-related birth declines but for Sweden at least we actually saw a minor bump last year; our decline wasn't that significant to begin with. China's plunge was massive by comparison - and it shows no signs of letting up. Some of that fall was probably inevitable even without a Covid, but their policies massively exacerbated it.

    For comparison, India has about ~24 million births per year, so the differential is gigantic. Even if you assume China would be 3X richer than India forever, if India keeps this relative birth ratios in check we'd still be looking at the two countries being quite close in power.

    FWIW, I think the distance will shrink but India has a decent shot at keeping it 2X bigger, because I don't think China's decline is finished just yet. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw births go down to even 8 million in China. 16 million for India is probably the floor.

    IMO, saving boomers on the altar of foregone births is a terrible choice yet China keeps doubling down.

    One more thing – CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population “more healthy” than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol
     

    That sounds plausible, East Asians tend to be pretty obsessed with "saving face" and prestige - China perhaps more than most. And the Taiwan angle doesn't help. Though I think this is probably not the driving force so much as a marginal concern, but it could well be a factor, albeit a minor one.
  148. @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    lol, Karlin is still mad as a rabid blind bat, because zero covid lowers overall oil demand and subsequently prices are rather stable, while RF production and sales are going down, so he is furiously coping himself with achieving imaginable victories against "Chinese svidomism" ;)

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @A123, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    China has more trading volume with — Malaysia, than Russia. It never made sense to get too close.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China

    PRC’s future is Eurasia integration and CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA). The smart move for Russia is get a foothold in the latter, NE Asia.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  149. @Anatoly Karlin
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I was trolling TL, that aside, I don't even see how this is an inaccurate assessment today, there are more Beijing think-tanks and they are patriotic and pro-Eurasian whereas Shanghai's are packed with Western stooges, it has twice Shanghai's Science production (https://www.natureindex.com/supplements/nature-index-2020-science-cities/tables/overall) and China's top two universities, etc. Modern Beijing is far superior to Shanghai on both the moral as well as pure accomplishments plane.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Beijing flanked by Bohai Sea a more secure position than Shanghai, and a centerpiece of NE Asia CJK integration. The Chinese are livid at Japan for coaxing an apology from Ukraine for Hirohito-Hitler comparison.

    The smart move is for Russia to play a conciliatory between China and Japan, say, give back the Kurile Islands and tell the Japanese it was favor that can be reciprocated to PRC.

    The dick move would be further incite Sino-Japanese enmity. That worked in 1936 in Xi’an Incident when Soviets/CPC turned KMT against Japan, but it sure didn’t help Russia much in the long run.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Your idealistic view


    CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA)
     
    Remember all the talk of Russia being able to blackmail Germany with gas before the war in Ukraine? This will happen to Japan, S Korea & Australia when China and the US decide war should come first.

    China's past and future is putting autarky before the vassals and barbarians. Those bring in only superfluous tribute.

    Kurile Islands
     
    Japan's Diplomatic Bluebook now says the Kurile Islands are illegally occupied by Russia.

    After the war with NATO starts Russia would "liberate Ezo" and the Ainus from their Japanese "colonizers", and replace them with Russian ones, of course, basically doing what the Soviet could not try because of American nukes. I'd definitely stand on the side of Japan for this because Russia would be raving mad, but Japan's land forces aren't as good as S Korea's.

    Sino-Japanese enmity
     
    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American military bases and the American-loyalist Lib-Dem elites. China ought to massively bankroll the Communists and use subtle propaganda, the way Russia did to raise up the European New Right, and if pro-Chinese political forces gain power, then drop out of the mutual defense pact that obligates Japan to defend a province of China from China in case the US decides so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @songbird
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    When you get down to it, Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    I can't see Russia even contemplating giving them back, unless Japan kicks out American troops. Even then, hard to see a value proposition where they would benefit from it.

    Doesn't seem to be a strategic replacement for them, and that is not even counting the potential natural resources. IMO, Japan missed its best opportunity to work a deal, which was the Yeltsin years.

    Replies: @216, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  150. @Beckow
    @nickels

    Unbeatable. I thought Swiss were more level-headed but when it comes to opening tunnels there is always some darkness. I can't wait until that has an uncontested rule all over Europe.

    Where the f..k are the swarthy migrants when one needs them? They couldn't possibly be worse...

    Replies: @nickels

    Well, Russia is the third Rome.
    Maybe its time for Rome to stuff the Pagans back into the can throughout Europe once again.

  151. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Take it from me as an East Asian, Karlin didn't jump out at me as "not looking Russian enough".

    And its not like these things aren't common, Sun Yat-sen is from Guangdong, regarded by many from core Han regions as full of uncultured Austronesian untermensch, managed to (semi) successfully shill for Han nationalism, later even "Five Races" ROC nationalism, and still considered the father of "Taiwan".

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I guess the closer analogy is white nationalism movement in America, rather than Taiwan (Taiwan would be like if anti-Bolshevik forces ruled on an island after the civil war) . Equivalent probably doesn’t exist in China, and perhaps a sign of the Chinese maturity.

    Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.

    There is ethnic meaning of Russian and citizenship meaning. Russia has hundreds of nationalities, of every appearance. But the Russian people, only in specifically national sense (let’s say old words), are a European race, with European appearance only.

    If you don’t have European appearance, nobody will consider you Russian in this sense, at least for the older generation of people. People who were living in Soviet times, when ethnic categorization was important. Older people see nationality as one of the most important things description of peoples’ appearance. Therefore, brown people, are not considered Russian in the old sense, even if they have Russian citizenship.

    But modern Russian imperialism, is including all the races in the Russian Federation, as well as some outside it. Putin is claim that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, as justification for invasion of Ukraine. So, it is a civil war. But the other half of it, is Russian imperialism in opposition to “nationalists, Nazis, etc”, and in Russian media, always “fighting nationalists”.

    So in the current war, Putin is saying, with some mix of contradictions..

    Putin said, “When I see examples of such heroism as the feat of a young man — Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, a native of Dagestan, a Lak by nationality, our other soldiers, I want to say: I am a Lak, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, Ingush, Russian, Tatar, Jew, Mordvin, Ossetian.” Putin said, stressing that it is simply impossible to list all of Russia’s more than 300 national and ethnic groups. “I am proud that I am part of this world, part of the mighty, strong and multinational people of Russia. At the same time, I will never give up my belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Even despite that some residents of Ukraine are intimidated, many are fooled by Nazi, nationalist propaganda, and someone consciously, of course, follow the path of Bandera.”
    https://gazetaingush.ru/news/gorzhus-tem-chto-ya-chast-moguchego-silnogo-mnogonacionalnogo-naroda-rossii-putin

    • Replies: @Pixo
    @Dmitry

    Karlin is 3/4 east slavic and 1/4 muslim. His 23andme isn’t great because it is more focused on central and Western Europeans but confirms.

    https://i.imgur.com/sHmyCFJ_d.webp

    He looks very Ashkenazi to me. Much more Ashkenazi than me, who is 50%, but look Alpinid.

    I did mine then, and without having to pay to get retested, they greatly increased the specificity of the result. The jew portion is the same, but the German and English results have specific counties.

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Sun is a loose analogy to Karlin, I should give you more context. Sun Yat-sen is considered the founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan for leading the Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Manchu Qing Dynasty. He came from a marginal Han region and spoke a dialect unintelligible to Mandarin speakers-- Cantonese.

    Cantonese tend to be darker, smaller, beardless and there is mutual discrimination between northerners and southerners, former Mongol commenter AltanBakshi use to say that southern Chinese are gay. But Sun nevertheless successfully led Han Chinese overthrow of Manchus.

    https://i.postimg.cc/dVtm4bd4/Sun-Yat-Sen-in-Japan-1900.png
    Sun (right) in Tokyo with his Japanese friends. Sun was patronized by the Japanese in leading Han nationalism against Manchus but Sun later turned around and said Manchuria and Mongolia belonged to China too, and furthermore cooperated with the Soviets, which the Japanese considered as betrayal.

    So Sun transformed from a Han nationalist -- to a ROC nationalist* that claims all former Qing territory, Manchuria/Mongolia/Xinjiang/Tibet.

    Whereas Karlin I think has only ever claimed as a RusFed nationalist (and not a Russian nationalist), which can include Caucasoids like him and Mongoloids like AltanBakshi.

    *ROC nationalism is basically congruent with PRC nationalism. Han nationalism 皇汉 huanghan "Imperial Han" is discouraged by the PRC because its considered chauvinistic against minorities and puts PRC's territorial claims to question; only PRC nationalism is acceptable.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

  152. @sudden death
    @A123

    Somehow not surprised that RF energy export revenues is yet another touchy sore spot for you ;)

    Zero coviding (which is quite likely to spread further) at China's coastal supercity level started way later than RF invasion, so RF export revenue data since invasion you threw around as some refuting has nothing to do with my own original point.

    All the RF pipe dreams of $200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden's releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from $121 to hovering around $100. Considering $147 oil price in 2008 and subsequent cumulative inflation since it would not be much of exaggeration to say now oil costs about $55-65 in 2008 dollars but with contracting RF oil production.

    RF coal exports are already banned to EU, so the only remaining bright spot for RF fanatics is continuing, but shrinking (even if way too slowly) EU dependency of RF natgas imports and propaganda victories about so called rouble payments convoluted financial schemings which in fact did not change much in essence at all.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100

    A more rational way of seeing it is lockdowns as extreme fuel rationing. Anything but “containing” COVID!

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  153. @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I guess the closer analogy is white nationalism movement in America, rather than Taiwan (Taiwan would be like if anti-Bolshevik forces ruled on an island after the civil war) . Equivalent probably doesn't exist in China, and perhaps a sign of the Chinese maturity.


    Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.
     
    There is ethnic meaning of Russian and citizenship meaning. Russia has hundreds of nationalities, of every appearance. But the Russian people, only in specifically national sense (let's say old words), are a European race, with European appearance only.

    If you don't have European appearance, nobody will consider you Russian in this sense, at least for the older generation of people. People who were living in Soviet times, when ethnic categorization was important. Older people see nationality as one of the most important things description of peoples' appearance. Therefore, brown people, are not considered Russian in the old sense, even if they have Russian citizenship.

    But modern Russian imperialism, is including all the races in the Russian Federation, as well as some outside it. Putin is claim that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, as justification for invasion of Ukraine. So, it is a civil war. But the other half of it, is Russian imperialism in opposition to "nationalists, Nazis, etc", and in Russian media, always "fighting nationalists".

    So in the current war, Putin is saying, with some mix of contradictions..

    Putin said, “When I see examples of such heroism as the feat of a young man — Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, a native of Dagestan, a Lak by nationality, our other soldiers, I want to say: I am a Lak, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, Ingush, Russian, Tatar, Jew, Mordvin, Ossetian.” Putin said, stressing that it is simply impossible to list all of Russia’s more than 300 national and ethnic groups. “I am proud that I am part of this world, part of the mighty, strong and multinational people of Russia. At the same time, I will never give up my belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Even despite that some residents of Ukraine are intimidated, many are fooled by Nazi, nationalist propaganda, and someone consciously, of course, follow the path of Bandera.”
    https://gazetaingush.ru/news/gorzhus-tem-chto-ya-chast-moguchego-silnogo-mnogonacionalnogo-naroda-rossii-putin

    Replies: @Pixo, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Karlin is 3/4 east slavic and 1/4 muslim. His 23andme isn’t great because it is more focused on central and Western Europeans but confirms.

    He looks very Ashkenazi to me. Much more Ashkenazi than me, who is 50%, but look Alpinid.

    I did mine then, and without having to pay to get retested, they greatly increased the specificity of the result. The jew portion is the same, but the German and English results have specific counties.

  154. @sudden death
    @Thulean Friend

    idk, maybe Xi is a true believer of "population is power" trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?

    One more thing - CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population "more healthy" than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Thulean Friend

    Part of the problem for China to end “zero covid”, can be vaccine efficacy.

    If they are not confident about the efficacy of vaccine they used, but they do not want to import foreign vaccines. Therefore, they would need to develop new vaccines. Taiwan, to compare, has used Western vaccines.

    However, there is one study claiming that Sinovac is 98% protection, which would be sufficient if true.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256596.shtml

    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    • Replies: @216
    @Dmitry


    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

     

    Covid is over in Redstan. No more silly blue mouth diapers here.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

  155. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Beijing flanked by Bohai Sea a more secure position than Shanghai, and a centerpiece of NE Asia CJK integration. The Chinese are livid at Japan for coaxing an apology from Ukraine for Hirohito-Hitler comparison.

    The smart move is for Russia to play a conciliatory between China and Japan, say, give back the Kurile Islands and tell the Japanese it was favor that can be reciprocated to PRC.

    The dick move would be further incite Sino-Japanese enmity. That worked in 1936 in Xi'an Incident when Soviets/CPC turned KMT against Japan, but it sure didn't help Russia much in the long run.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

    Your idealistic view

    CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA)

    Remember all the talk of Russia being able to blackmail Germany with gas before the war in Ukraine? This will happen to Japan, S Korea & Australia when China and the US decide war should come first.

    China’s past and future is putting autarky before the vassals and barbarians. Those bring in only superfluous tribute.

    Kurile Islands

    Japan’s Diplomatic Bluebook now says the Kurile Islands are illegally occupied by Russia.

    After the war with NATO starts Russia would “liberate Ezo” and the Ainus from their Japanese “colonizers”, and replace them with Russian ones, of course, basically doing what the Soviet could not try because of American nukes. I’d definitely stand on the side of Japan for this because Russia would be raving mad, but Japan’s land forces aren’t as good as S Korea’s.

    Sino-Japanese enmity

    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American military bases and the American-loyalist Lib-Dem elites. China ought to massively bankroll the Communists and use subtle propaganda, the way Russia did to raise up the European New Right, and if pro-Chinese political forces gain power, then drop out of the mutual defense pact that obligates Japan to defend a province of China from China in case the US decides so.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Meant to write


    Your idealistic view is only viable in a world where peaceful cooperation wins the day. We don't live in that world and very likely the states espousing these ideas will be eliminated or undermined.
     
    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Yellowface Anon


    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American
     
    This is incorrect, go read Liu Zhongjing's The Great Game of the Far East in the 20th Century - Japan and the Soviet Union 二十世紀遠東的博弈 — 日本與蘇聯

    There's research indicating that Zhang Xueliang and Song Qingling, rather than merely pro-Soviet/CPC, were outright Soviet agents.

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan. PRC does four times as much trade with Japan than Russia.

    Replies: @sudden death

  156. @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Your idealistic view


    CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA)
     
    Remember all the talk of Russia being able to blackmail Germany with gas before the war in Ukraine? This will happen to Japan, S Korea & Australia when China and the US decide war should come first.

    China's past and future is putting autarky before the vassals and barbarians. Those bring in only superfluous tribute.

    Kurile Islands
     
    Japan's Diplomatic Bluebook now says the Kurile Islands are illegally occupied by Russia.

    After the war with NATO starts Russia would "liberate Ezo" and the Ainus from their Japanese "colonizers", and replace them with Russian ones, of course, basically doing what the Soviet could not try because of American nukes. I'd definitely stand on the side of Japan for this because Russia would be raving mad, but Japan's land forces aren't as good as S Korea's.

    Sino-Japanese enmity
     
    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American military bases and the American-loyalist Lib-Dem elites. China ought to massively bankroll the Communists and use subtle propaganda, the way Russia did to raise up the European New Right, and if pro-Chinese political forces gain power, then drop out of the mutual defense pact that obligates Japan to defend a province of China from China in case the US decides so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Meant to write

    Your idealistic view is only viable in a world where peaceful cooperation wins the day. We don’t live in that world and very likely the states espousing these ideas will be eliminated or undermined.

  157. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Beijing flanked by Bohai Sea a more secure position than Shanghai, and a centerpiece of NE Asia CJK integration. The Chinese are livid at Japan for coaxing an apology from Ukraine for Hirohito-Hitler comparison.

    The smart move is for Russia to play a conciliatory between China and Japan, say, give back the Kurile Islands and tell the Japanese it was favor that can be reciprocated to PRC.

    The dick move would be further incite Sino-Japanese enmity. That worked in 1936 in Xi'an Incident when Soviets/CPC turned KMT against Japan, but it sure didn't help Russia much in the long run.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @songbird

    When you get down to it, Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    I can’t see Russia even contemplating giving them back, unless Japan kicks out American troops. Even then, hard to see a value proposition where they would benefit from it.

    Doesn’t seem to be a strategic replacement for them, and that is not even counting the potential natural resources. IMO, Japan missed its best opportunity to work a deal, which was the Yeltsin years.

    • Replies: @216
    @songbird


    unless Japan kicks out American troops
     
    They'd face a coup d'etat and an embargo if they even thought about doing that.
    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird

    My general point is I don't think Russia has ever been as isolated in its entire history. China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality. With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn't have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there's not much Russia can do for China. If anything at this point Russo-Japanese rapprochement isn't bad for China.

    Also it might let Olaf go easier on those Waffenlieferungen.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-japan-seek-deeper-ties-during-scholz-visit/a-61608621

    Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    Why exactly? By the way Japanese-American actor Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa of Rising Sun, converted to Orthodoxy and became a Russian citizen, he has Russian movie here Confession of A Samurai,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFcBmoD7kk

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird

  158. @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    Part of the problem for China to end "zero covid", can be vaccine efficacy.

    If they are not confident about the efficacy of vaccine they used, but they do not want to import foreign vaccines. Therefore, they would need to develop new vaccines. Taiwan, to compare, has used Western vaccines.

    However, there is one study claiming that Sinovac is 98% protection, which would be sufficient if true.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256596.shtml

    China should now probably go to not such a "zero covid" which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but "semi-zero covid" strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    Replies: @216

    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

    Covid is over in Redstan. No more silly blue mouth diapers here.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @AP
    @216

    I saw no masks in Poland, except for a couple of American tourists in Krakow.

    , @A123
    @216

    For the U.S. as a whole ~60% of the population has caught WUHAN-19. That number jumps to 75-80% for student aged youth.

    MAGA states accept science. The CCP Laboratory created pandemic is effectively over. For the bulk of the population, natural immunity is stronger than anything received via an experimental jab. The only people who should take mRNA vaccine are elderly with preexisting conditions.

    Bluestan Leftoids are science deniers leading brain dead sheeple. They willingly sacrifice themselves upon the alter of Pfizer's profit margin. This makes no sense to anyone rational. However, serving CCP Elites and multinational MegaCorporations are core points of dogma for the SJW/DNC.

    PEACE 😇

  159. @songbird
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    When you get down to it, Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    I can't see Russia even contemplating giving them back, unless Japan kicks out American troops. Even then, hard to see a value proposition where they would benefit from it.

    Doesn't seem to be a strategic replacement for them, and that is not even counting the potential natural resources. IMO, Japan missed its best opportunity to work a deal, which was the Yeltsin years.

    Replies: @216, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    unless Japan kicks out American troops

    They’d face a coup d’etat and an embargo if they even thought about doing that.

  160. @Yevardian
    @sher singh

    What's your point? My family just didn't have the time the insular, gossipy, resentful and backbiting nature of western emigre communities, they (regretfully) didn't see any bright future in the post-USSR world and wanted us to assimilate successfully.
    That doesn't mean you can't speak your language and take pride in your history and culture at home (there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered), but when you move to another country, you adapt to the place that hosted you, not like some typical ungrateful Indian leftist weed whining about colonialism and racism (or in your case, maliciously enjoying the destruction of your host, like some parasite) whilst living better than you ever could at home.
    Thanks for reminding me why I can't stand Indians, it was starting to fade since I got away from seeing them everyday.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Mikel

    there I disagree with Mikel, especially considering his language is both difficult, unique and endangered

    You have a point, certainly, but life is complicated. I have 3 children with 3 different women and that is about the only thing I have in common with Trump so I try to do what I think is best for each of them, under their respective circumstances.

    The Basque language is not endangered these days anyway. It’s survived for millennia under much worse circumstances. Some of its current problems actually stem from its recent growth. We used to have our beautiful dialects that made communication amongst us often difficult but that’s how it had always been and we were happy enough. Then our experts half a century ago decided to create a Unified Basque ex novo and that is what people have been compulsorily taught at school in the past decades. Since most of them have an immigrant background and didn’t learn Basque at home, modern Basque has become a rather rootless speech that lacks the old spontaneity and complexity of the dialects it is slowly replacing. Quite sad, I think, but perhaps Hochdeutsch, modern Hebrew and others had to go through such a period.

  161. @216
    @Dmitry


    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

     

    Covid is over in Redstan. No more silly blue mouth diapers here.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    I saw no masks in Poland, except for a couple of American tourists in Krakow.

  162. Checks date. March 22. I guess someone can’t count:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/russian-invaders-have-three-days-of-supplies-left-says-ukraine-military

    The smarter ones are now saying that Russia has no more than 30-days supplies left … at least that gives people time to forget the stupid things they said.

  163. @sudden death
    @Thulean Friend

    idk, maybe Xi is a true believer of "population is power" trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?

    One more thing - CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population "more healthy" than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Thulean Friend

    maybe Xi is a true believer of “population is power” trope, so he does not want to lose that 0,5-0,8% of his own overall aging people considering wonky effectiveness of his own native vax and having expanding India next door? Probably looking at neighbouring RF with its population lax attitudes which resulted in more than one million deaths and cratering average life expectancy levels was not very impressed also and wants to avoid it even at the cost of economical contraction?


    Foregone births is a much bigger problem if you’re concerned with population size. True, most countries saw Covid-related birth declines but for Sweden at least we actually saw a minor bump last year; our decline wasn’t that significant to begin with. China’s plunge was massive by comparison – and it shows no signs of letting up. Some of that fall was probably inevitable even without a Covid, but their policies massively exacerbated it.

    For comparison, India has about ~24 million births per year, so the differential is gigantic. Even if you assume China would be 3X richer than India forever, if India keeps this relative birth ratios in check we’d still be looking at the two countries being quite close in power.

    FWIW, I think the distance will shrink but India has a decent shot at keeping it 2X bigger, because I don’t think China’s decline is finished just yet. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw births go down to even 8 million in China. 16 million for India is probably the floor.

    IMO, saving boomers on the altar of foregone births is a terrible choice yet China keeps doubling down.

    One more thing – CCP wants to be or at least look better than Taiwan at all imaginable costs and Taiwan is having huge outbreak right now at the moment too, so they probably will proudly report and base their own inner CCP propaganda around the fact they kept own population “more healthy” than those westernized separatist degenerates from Taipei lol

    That sounds plausible, East Asians tend to be pretty obsessed with “saving face” and prestige – China perhaps more than most. And the Taiwan angle doesn’t help. Though I think this is probably not the driving force so much as a marginal concern, but it could well be a factor, albeit a minor one.

  164. @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin


    cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneaker.. undecipherable
     
    Perhaps unintentionally from you, but my vanity experiences a complement, especially how you added the word "cosmopolitan".

    My ego is vain enough, that from this single fact you add "cosmopolitan", I started to feel more warmly to you again and almost wanted to apologize for saying you posted fake news last month (although posting fake news was still weak sauce).

    If my posts are giving an impression of "cosmopolitan", then my writing skills must be improving. I remember a few years, my posts were only resulting in claims of "autism". I used to have about five users claiming I have "autism", which not the impression I wanted to create lol.

    I have less illusion about "Jew" than you, as I found many Jews are provincial rednecks, neither very intelligent, and not exactly a cosmopolitan either elite some people like to imagine. From your description of me, I'm envisaging a sophisticated financier with New York penthouse and underground bunker where he keeps WuTang first edition vinyl, carefully polished 1950s Porsche and fresh boxes of Nike Air Force 1.

    My origin is just lower class Russians, which disappear in the family tree, to small villages, i.e. with zero influence in history and world events . A grandfather with Jewish roots, which is more exciting, trace the roots to authentic Yiddish names like from Sholem Aleichem stories, but we couldn't trace many generations, also to unknown villages, i.e. even non-Russian, Jewish branch in our family ancestry, are probably from an even more lower class tree than the Russian branch.

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, "idiosyncratic" accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a "Russian nationalist", I didn't consider it undecipherable.

    I saw it was very postmodernist, Dada trolling of Russian nationalism, as expected from people of your origin, that has an education in San Francisco and London, and more or less the opposite of any stereotype of nowadays a little too much persecuted (although not without reason) Russian nationalists.

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers "Russians" to be "people of color" that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you. I considered his sentiment to be an honor and didn't even say anything to damage it, but I believe AP has to disappoint him.

    But in your more aggressive comments of recent weeks, I'm assuming you are trolling but I'm starting to feel like Ray Liotta in a "Goodfellas" clips. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfcy15ZUE2c.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @silviosilver

    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.

    What’s the backstory of his accent? Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you.

    Lol, hardly a surprise that the internet’s premier racial straw-clutcher would feel that way, even if he was pouring it on thick with “people of color” remark (assuming he actually made it, and it’s not just your own gloss).

    If they ever remake “My Fair Lady,” with the by now customary replacement of a white character with a POC, I suggest, in Yahya’s honor, an Arab trying to learn the Received Pronunciation with the phrase: “It is plain as rain they can pass in Spain.”

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri


    “idiosyncratic” accent
     
    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK's has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I'm not mistaken. I personally can't judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I'm hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they're not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an 'eager American' noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can't say I dislike it, but I definitely can't listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn't learn their parents' mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan's (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it's about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man's talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience's head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don't pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can't really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn't find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a 'Turkic' people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia's disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can't call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of 'Nazi' either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China's violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran 'to build relationships with other countries in the region' and defer to Saudi Arabia 'as a goon squad you go to smash things up' or something along those lines. He didn't make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America's historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn't mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq's 'optimistic' predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it's better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mikel, @utu, @Ron Unz

    , @Thulean Friend
    @silviosilver


    Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)
     
    You're exaggerating. Found this recent interview of his (I haven't listened to him in years, so I have pretty "fresh ears" so to speak) that I fished out of the bottomless bitchute sea:

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/dSg4rHIYEosY/

    If you try hard enough, you might notice a tinge of an accent but it isn't nearly as dramatic as you claim. I only watched the first few mins, since I only wanted to check the supposed accent, but he mentions he landed in the UK at age 6 and then left a decade later to America early on. I don't think this is the mystery you purport it to be. Voices range in all sorts of ways.

    Replies: @AP

  165. @silviosilver
    @Dmitry


    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.
     
    What's the backstory of his accent? Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That's the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some "local flavor" accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you.
     
    Lol, hardly a surprise that the internet's premier racial straw-clutcher would feel that way, even if he was pouring it on thick with "people of color" remark (assuming he actually made it, and it's not just your own gloss).

    If they ever remake "My Fair Lady," with the by now customary replacement of a white character with a POC, I suggest, in Yahya's honor, an Arab trying to learn the Received Pronunciation with the phrase: "It is plain as rain they can pass in Spain."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmADMB2utAo

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Thulean Friend

    @Dmitri

    “idiosyncratic” accent

    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK’s has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I’m not mistaken. I personally can’t judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I’m hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they’re not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an ‘eager American’ noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn’t really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can’t say I dislike it, but I definitely can’t listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan’s (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it’s about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man’s talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience’s head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn’t find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a ‘Turkic’ people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia’s disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can’t call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of ‘Nazi’ either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China’s violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran ‘to build relationships with other countries in the region’ and defer to Saudi Arabia ‘as a goon squad you go to smash things up’ or something along those lines. He didn’t make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America’s historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn’t mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq’s ‘optimistic’ predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it’s better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Yevardian


    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.
     
    Peter Zeihan is a hustler. His purpose in life is to hustle dollars for Lockheed, Boeing, $Defense_Contract_Corporation, and Peter Zeihan.

    Everybody would do better if they had a purpose in life. Half of my friends at least would give me a really weird look if they heard me use the phrase purpose in life.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Mikel
    @Yevardian


    I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.
     
    That happens, especially at certain cultural levels, but do you speak like your parents? I certainly don't. Even though my parents were not foreign immigrants, they also brought their village accents and forms of speech, both in Basque and Spanish, that I soon learned to avoid.

    It's difficult to avoid passing some of your speech mannerisms on to your children but, as Silvio says, it's also very difficult to prevent them from acquiring the local accent, unless they live in isolated ethnic enclaves. Even young Hispanics around here who live surrounded mostly by their peers tend to speak clean English if they lived all their lives in the US.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @utu
    @Yevardian

    Thanks for reading Peter Zeihan's book and writing brief report. You know what I think of him: charlatan and hustler though a very talented one.

    Peter Zeihan : How China Will Die

    youtube.com/watch?v=bww_LNrJYHs

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan...He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works.
     
    He sounds like a total lunatic to me. I've been closely following China for nearly 45 years and all my longer term predictions have been correct, and it's even exceeded my most optimistic scenario:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I've never heard of him and why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Emil Nikola Richard

  166. https://unherd.com/2022/04/is-ukraine-just-a-white-mans-war/

    Having grown up during the Cold War, the son of parents who toiled under the British colonial yoke, at the very least I speak for a generation that believed that the only bulwark against American imperialism, or the suppression of black sovereignty, or European neo-colonialism, or support for British and South African apartheid was the existence of a nation with the balls to stand up to Western decadence.

    Hmmm.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Coconuts


    or support for British and South African apartheid
     
    British apartheid? When and where exactly did Britain run an apartheid system? Certainly not during the life time of this professionally aggrieved Afro-activist (apparently born in the 1970s). Instead the British state with its race relations acts was aiming to enforce the opposite of apartheid. So just another piece of mythology for PoC victimhood.
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Coconuts

    Does anybody know any negroes? If you had a picnic at the terminus with free chicken and watermelon you could probably gather a few hundred negroes to protest government money going to Ukraine for a white man's war.

    Also you would find your name moving up the CIA enemies list but if you are on the top of it anyway you might as well go out guns blazing. : )

  167. German_reader says:
    @Coconuts
    https://unherd.com/2022/04/is-ukraine-just-a-white-mans-war/

    Having grown up during the Cold War, the son of parents who toiled under the British colonial yoke, at the very least I speak for a generation that believed that the only bulwark against American imperialism, or the suppression of black sovereignty, or European neo-colonialism, or support for British and South African apartheid was the existence of a nation with the balls to stand up to Western decadence.
     
    Hmmm.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

    or support for British and South African apartheid

    British apartheid? When and where exactly did Britain run an apartheid system? Certainly not during the life time of this professionally aggrieved Afro-activist (apparently born in the 1970s). Instead the British state with its race relations acts was aiming to enforce the opposite of apartheid. So just another piece of mythology for PoC victimhood.

  168. @sudden death
    @A123

    Somehow not surprised that RF energy export revenues is yet another touchy sore spot for you ;)

    Zero coviding (which is quite likely to spread further) at China's coastal supercity level started way later than RF invasion, so RF export revenue data since invasion you threw around as some refuting has nothing to do with my own original point.

    All the RF pipe dreams of $200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden's releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from $121 to hovering around $100. Considering $147 oil price in 2008 and subsequent cumulative inflation since it would not be much of exaggeration to say now oil costs about $55-65 in 2008 dollars but with contracting RF oil production.

    RF coal exports are already banned to EU, so the only remaining bright spot for RF fanatics is continuing, but shrinking (even if way too slowly) EU dependency of RF natgas imports and propaganda victories about so called rouble payments convoluted financial schemings which in fact did not change much in essence at all.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    All the RF pipe dreams of \$200 oil went down the drain when cumulative effect of Biden’s releasing of US SPR and zero coviding brought oil down from \$121 to hovering around \$100.

    — Is there any evidence RF was intentionally targeting \$200 oil? No.
    — The effect of Not-The-President Biden’s SPR releases is negligible.
    — If China permentry stops their economy that would be bad for Russia long term oil sales to China. Does anyone think it is permanent? No.

    Crowning over temporary a situation, leaves you holding a non-existent victory.

    PEACE 😇

  169. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    Any tabulation of the casualties and losses in the Falklands War should include the number of whales killed by both sides.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I thought you were making this up, but apparently it really happened:
    https://www.news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/news-story/92e895efd40db654fa41a62a3312f4c0

    I guess you could count them as neutral collateral damage, like Swiss or Irish killed in bombing raids during WW2? So there’d have to be a category for “neutral victims (at least three whales)” on the relevant Wikipedia page.

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
    @German_reader

    I believe the Argentines also killed one. Their sub San Luis (old German hardware) hit something with a Mark 37 torpedo (old American hardware).

    Replies: @German_reader

  170. @216
    @Dmitry


    China should now probably go to not such a “zero covid” which requires quarantine that could cause industrial shut down, but “semi-zero covid” strategy, with installation of ventilation, PPE and more engineering (rather than lockdown) solutions.

     

    Covid is over in Redstan. No more silly blue mouth diapers here.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    For the U.S. as a whole ~60% of the population has caught WUHAN-19. That number jumps to 75-80% for student aged youth.

    MAGA states accept science. The CCP Laboratory created pandemic is effectively over. For the bulk of the population, natural immunity is stronger than anything received via an experimental jab. The only people who should take mRNA vaccine are elderly with preexisting conditions.

    Bluestan Leftoids are science deniers leading brain dead sheeple. They willingly sacrifice themselves upon the alter of Pfizer’s profit margin. This makes no sense to anyone rational. However, serving CCP Elites and multinational MegaCorporations are core points of dogma for the SJW/DNC.

    PEACE 😇

  171. @Yevardian
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri


    “idiosyncratic” accent
     
    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK's has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I'm not mistaken. I personally can't judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I'm hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they're not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an 'eager American' noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can't say I dislike it, but I definitely can't listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn't learn their parents' mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan's (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it's about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man's talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience's head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don't pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can't really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn't find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a 'Turkic' people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia's disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can't call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of 'Nazi' either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China's violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran 'to build relationships with other countries in the region' and defer to Saudi Arabia 'as a goon squad you go to smash things up' or something along those lines. He didn't make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America's historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn't mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq's 'optimistic' predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it's better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mikel, @utu, @Ron Unz

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    Peter Zeihan is a hustler. His purpose in life is to hustle dollars for Lockheed, Boeing, \$Defense_Contract_Corporation, and Peter Zeihan.

    Everybody would do better if they had a purpose in life. Half of my friends at least would give me a really weird look if they heard me use the phrase purpose in life.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Well, the modern world does give it's denizens a purpose in life. Material acquisition, personal actualization through material acquisition, and transcendence channeled through the submersion of self into other's political realities!

    In all seriousness though, I agree fully with your point. I find it unutterably sad that we live in a world where purpose in life and honor are treated as truly alien and strange concepts.

  172. @Coconuts
    https://unherd.com/2022/04/is-ukraine-just-a-white-mans-war/

    Having grown up during the Cold War, the son of parents who toiled under the British colonial yoke, at the very least I speak for a generation that believed that the only bulwark against American imperialism, or the suppression of black sovereignty, or European neo-colonialism, or support for British and South African apartheid was the existence of a nation with the balls to stand up to Western decadence.
     
    Hmmm.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Does anybody know any negroes? If you had a picnic at the terminus with free chicken and watermelon you could probably gather a few hundred negroes to protest government money going to Ukraine for a white man’s war.

    Also you would find your name moving up the CIA enemies list but if you are on the top of it anyway you might as well go out guns blazing. : )

  173. @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I guess the closer analogy is white nationalism movement in America, rather than Taiwan (Taiwan would be like if anti-Bolshevik forces ruled on an island after the civil war) . Equivalent probably doesn't exist in China, and perhaps a sign of the Chinese maturity.


    Karlin didn’t jump out at me as “not looking Russian enough”.
     
    There is ethnic meaning of Russian and citizenship meaning. Russia has hundreds of nationalities, of every appearance. But the Russian people, only in specifically national sense (let's say old words), are a European race, with European appearance only.

    If you don't have European appearance, nobody will consider you Russian in this sense, at least for the older generation of people. People who were living in Soviet times, when ethnic categorization was important. Older people see nationality as one of the most important things description of peoples' appearance. Therefore, brown people, are not considered Russian in the old sense, even if they have Russian citizenship.

    But modern Russian imperialism, is including all the races in the Russian Federation, as well as some outside it. Putin is claim that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, as justification for invasion of Ukraine. So, it is a civil war. But the other half of it, is Russian imperialism in opposition to "nationalists, Nazis, etc", and in Russian media, always "fighting nationalists".

    So in the current war, Putin is saying, with some mix of contradictions..

    Putin said, “When I see examples of such heroism as the feat of a young man — Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, a native of Dagestan, a Lak by nationality, our other soldiers, I want to say: I am a Lak, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, Ingush, Russian, Tatar, Jew, Mordvin, Ossetian.” Putin said, stressing that it is simply impossible to list all of Russia’s more than 300 national and ethnic groups. “I am proud that I am part of this world, part of the mighty, strong and multinational people of Russia. At the same time, I will never give up my belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Even despite that some residents of Ukraine are intimidated, many are fooled by Nazi, nationalist propaganda, and someone consciously, of course, follow the path of Bandera.”
    https://gazetaingush.ru/news/gorzhus-tem-chto-ya-chast-moguchego-silnogo-mnogonacionalnogo-naroda-rossii-putin

    Replies: @Pixo, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Sun is a loose analogy to Karlin, I should give you more context. Sun Yat-sen is considered the founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan for leading the Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Manchu Qing Dynasty. He came from a marginal Han region and spoke a dialect unintelligible to Mandarin speakers– Cantonese.

    Cantonese tend to be darker, smaller, beardless and there is mutual discrimination between northerners and southerners, former Mongol commenter AltanBakshi use to say that southern Chinese are gay. But Sun nevertheless successfully led Han Chinese overthrow of Manchus.


    Sun (right) in Tokyo with his Japanese friends. Sun was patronized by the Japanese in leading Han nationalism against Manchus but Sun later turned around and said Manchuria and Mongolia belonged to China too, and furthermore cooperated with the Soviets, which the Japanese considered as betrayal.

    So Sun transformed from a Han nationalist — to a ROC nationalist* that claims all former Qing territory, Manchuria/Mongolia/Xinjiang/Tibet.

    Whereas Karlin I think has only ever claimed as a RusFed nationalist (and not a Russian nationalist), which can include Caucasoids like him and Mongoloids like AltanBakshi.

    *ROC nationalism is basically congruent with PRC nationalism. Han nationalism 皇汉 huanghan “Imperial Han” is discouraged by the PRC because its considered chauvinistic against minorities and puts PRC’s territorial claims to question; only PRC nationalism is acceptable.

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan
     
    https://cdn2.ettoday.net/images/5928/5928557.jpg

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    , @Dmitry
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    As always you post interesting information, although I'm still not how relevant can be the relation of a founder of Taiwan and an internet bloghost.

    Maybe you wanted to compare Sun Yat-sen to a politician in Russia or USSR? Stalin?

    -


    I guess the relation of nationalities in Russia had been unusual, partly because there is a very multinational country, but with high levels of deracination and destruction of traditional culture. Therefore, what really exists of national difference of some nationalities, is often just peoples' racial appearance.

    In Ufa, Russians and Bashkirs, are almost culturally the same, but the national difference even in such a multiracial city, is reduced to some different family names and the racial appearances.

    At the same time, there had been a lot of restriction of internal movement in Soviet times, so in many cities there could be very high local racial homogeneity, until the 2000s. Even in 1990s, in school photos, in Russian areas, all people in a school can have slavic appearance, without a single strange or foreign face. So, the older generation of people, from non-multiracial cities, who can remember times before the 2000s, can remember local homogeneity, can have a lot of provincialism in relation to this topic.

    But this emphasis about peoples' racial appearance in the Russian culture is not like racism, as could be seen in Western colonial societies. It's rather how people noticed nationalities in those multinational areas and doesn't imply a sense of colonial power relation (every nationality is equally colonized by the rulers and the majority nationality is not necessarily at the top).

  174. @Beckow
    @Sean


    ...where Russia lack technological or commitment advantage (at least none he chooses to use).
     
    Simonyan over-simplified it as a loss or going nuclear, but there is a middle choice. What you refer to as commitment is Russia's unwillingness to use what they have to destroy massive numbers of 'brotherly' Ukrainians or bomb Kiev ("holy city"). But they could do it and it would end the war with horrific devastation. So far they seem to be incrementally showing what they could do hoping that Kiev gets the message and folds. I don't think they will - their sponsors rather like the damage, more the better.

    It may come down to Putin's decision: destroying what he emotionally cannot bring himself to do (Kiev) or risk destroying the whole world. My bet is that he would go for Kiev, he is by all accounts rational. By then it may not be enough - the West can escalate further.

    In similar case when Nato was slowly bombing Serbia to Middle Ages (their words), Beograd eventually gave in. But Russia - their sponsor - told them to do it.

    Replies: @Sean

    There is no way to fight against nuclear weapons, As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA “Nuclear weapons have no military purpose, wars cannot be fought with them”. The use of a nuke–even a mine–would end the conventional was because once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good., America is not going thermonuclear for anyone.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Sean


    As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA
     
    Interesting. I'd never heard that claim. Do you have a link to the source?

    Replies: @Sean

  175. @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Your idealistic view


    CJK-RCEP integration (greater free trade zone than EU and NAFTA)
     
    Remember all the talk of Russia being able to blackmail Germany with gas before the war in Ukraine? This will happen to Japan, S Korea & Australia when China and the US decide war should come first.

    China's past and future is putting autarky before the vassals and barbarians. Those bring in only superfluous tribute.

    Kurile Islands
     
    Japan's Diplomatic Bluebook now says the Kurile Islands are illegally occupied by Russia.

    After the war with NATO starts Russia would "liberate Ezo" and the Ainus from their Japanese "colonizers", and replace them with Russian ones, of course, basically doing what the Soviet could not try because of American nukes. I'd definitely stand on the side of Japan for this because Russia would be raving mad, but Japan's land forces aren't as good as S Korea's.

    Sino-Japanese enmity
     
    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American military bases and the American-loyalist Lib-Dem elites. China ought to massively bankroll the Communists and use subtle propaganda, the way Russia did to raise up the European New Right, and if pro-Chinese political forces gain power, then drop out of the mutual defense pact that obligates Japan to defend a province of China from China in case the US decides so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American

    This is incorrect, go read Liu Zhongjing’s The Great Game of the Far East in the 20th Century – Japan and the Soviet Union 二十世紀遠東的博弈 — 日本與蘇聯

    There’s research indicating that Zhang Xueliang and Song Qingling, rather than merely pro-Soviet/CPC, were outright Soviet agents.

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan. PRC does four times as much trade with Japan than Russia.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan.
     
    It is not just some nonsense, RF-ians simply are desperately wishing that CCP'ied China started some significant aggresive action as soon as possible, cause it would relieve the pressure from their clumsy actions against UA, but zero coviding is shutting that possibility down.

    No mental problem after, just cure it with starting fantasy about winning fights against Chinese svidomists and it really being crypto preparations for street fightings in Taipei ;)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  176. @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Well, I didn't end up on hold all that long. I was contacted today by my official liaison from the CFIIG to set up a mutually agreeable testing regimen and to further evaluate my claim.

    He immediately suggested doing the test inside their building with stuff under cardboard boxes. I responded by saying that it won't work that way and that they should find a site with verifiable surveyed utilities of some sort. I'll be kept ignorant of the location and will be driven to the test. My guesses can be cross referenced to the known utility locations.

    We'll see what they say in response.

    It seems that there is some serious scientific credibility for dowsing. Of course study data can be found for or against, so one study versus another proves little.

    https://www.scientificexploration.org/docs/9/jse_09_1_betz.pdf

    I did dig out my copper dowsing rods and was playing around with them today. One of the explanations for the movement of the rods are slight automatic movements of the hand. This seems unlikely in my case since my rods are 3/16" copper rod extending about 18" horizontally. They are quite substantial, and it takes a very substantial conscious movement to get them to move in a similar way to when dowsing. I have to extend almost full grip strength on the small rod handle to get them to swing.

    As I said before, I'll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it's results.

    Replies: @RSDB

    I happen to know dowsing is still used (or was c. 2017) by development agencies in the part of Sri Lanka mentioned in the paper, if I’m ever in Sri Lanka again I will look more into it.

    Thanks again, this topic is very fascinating!

    As I said before, I’ll devise a rigorous verifiable test around here soon and give you an update on it’s results.

    Please do, and try to get a neutral observer to document it and so on– but you probably know all that part of it already.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
  177. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Yellowface Anon


    The greatest fanner of Sino-Japanese enmity is of course, the American
     
    This is incorrect, go read Liu Zhongjing's The Great Game of the Far East in the 20th Century - Japan and the Soviet Union 二十世紀遠東的博弈 — 日本與蘇聯

    There's research indicating that Zhang Xueliang and Song Qingling, rather than merely pro-Soviet/CPC, were outright Soviet agents.

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan. PRC does four times as much trade with Japan than Russia.

    Replies: @sudden death

    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan.

    It is not just some nonsense, RF-ians simply are desperately wishing that CCP’ied China started some significant aggresive action as soon as possible, cause it would relieve the pressure from their clumsy actions against UA, but zero coviding is shutting that possibility down.

    No mental problem after, just cure it with starting fantasy about winning fights against Chinese svidomists and it really being crypto preparations for street fightings in Taipei 😉

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death

    I'd wish for Taiwan to peacefully reintegrate when secessionism die off in the long term. But maybe Xi also reads AK and he's more convinced military unification is a good idea after being impressed by what Russia says about Russia's performance, and everyone in China must cope with the new isolationism.

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sudden death

    You know who can't wait for China to launch "Martial Reunification" 武统 wutong tomorrow...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Taiwan

    is US Gov. In this regard the US and RF imperialists share the same interest. At that point PRC loses strategic flexibility and AUKUS+EU+Japan+SK all line up against it.

    "Martial Reunification" operational plans of course exist and used for as leverage for "Peaceful Reunification". The precedents being mentioned are based on Chinese Civil War (1945-49). Specifically the Pingjin Campaign (1949) where Beijing's KMT commanding general Fu Zuoyi was decisively defeated in a few smaller battles, then surrendered his huge army to the CPC, facilitated by his daughter who was a CPC agent.

    This is called in PRC history books "Peaceful Liberation of Beijing", in ROC-Taiwan it's called "Fall of Beijing". And portrayed in the movie I rec'd to songbird, The Founding of a Republic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FRj3P97TvY

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

  178. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    "Not uniformly hostile"...what part?

    If Ukrainian citizens need to see what a future Ukraine will look like under Russian influence, they need not go any further than Mariupol or Kherson to get a small taste of what awaits them. If they need further proof, all they need to do is to look at what life is like in the newly designated "republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk:


    The areas, known in Russian as Donetskaya Narodnaya Respublika (DNR) and Luganskaya Narodnaya Respublika (LNR), comprise the eastern part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions respectively; the western parts have remained under Ukrainian government control even after 2014. Despite the “people’s republic” names, they have routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents, institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights. They have also presided over the collapse of industry and a catastrophic fall in living standards.
     
    For more detailed information read this eye opening article, published in March:

    https://jacobinmag.com/2022/03/donbas-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine-russia-putin

    Replies: @Beckow

    jacobmag“? what is that?

    But ok, what you quoted could be said about almost any country. Definitely about Ukraine, Bulgaria, Baltics, some also about UK, Canada (Justin is quite something, isn’t he?). In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    The question is: what are the general attitudes by eastern Ukrainians towards Russia? In a war most prefer to play it safe. There is nothing to show “uniform hostility” towards Russia, or “uniform support“. We have the previous elections that were for the pro-Russian side and small numbers fighting on each side. Plus selective videos that may not represent what most people think, I have seen both.

    It is clearly not like Finland in 1940 – that may fit better Galicia and Kiev, but not the south-east. When you base your analysis on faulty analogies it backfires.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.
     
    Really? First, Pirani does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples. It's really you that are bantering around meaningless cliches that don't add up to anything worth contemplating. So, you really believe that the government and political repression found in the two new "republics" are analogous to what one can find within Slovakia? I'll give you a chance to respond, but from your initial reply I can tell you from the onset that I'm not really looking forward to to spending much time debating these ridiculous notions of yours. I do realize that you wrote that things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground. There may even be some small truth to this, but the fact that you're trying to insinuate that the authors opinions aren't to be considered as accurate because others may be writing BS, is BS in itself. Remember, Pirani "does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples."

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Beckow

  179. @AP
    @Beckow


    The ones who were still alive by 1940 would keep a very low profile.
     
    Sure, but there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    In Ukraine’s east and south, the pro-Russians must be more numerous, Porky got less than 10% in most of the region.
     
    Pro-Russian in the context of an invasion is not the same thing as not voting for Poroshenko. Even previously Russia-friendly politicians like Vilkul are actively involved in resisting the invader. The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10% (lower n places like Kherson, higher in Mariupol).

    But I give you an example of Mariupol where there are dozens of videos of civilians coming out of shelters yelling abuse at Zelko and praising Russia.
     
    Sure, if 10% of the population in this region supports Russia one can easily find such examples.

    In Kherson the pro-Kiev demos attract hundreds, that is quite impressive, but what about everyone else?
     
    It's telling that the Russians couldn't find any crowds to support them at all in Kherson, unlike in Sevastopol. Kherson only saw large pro-Ukrainian demonstrations. Lucky for Russia that it was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev.

    I think you are overstating pro-Russians in 1940 Finland and understating pro-Russians in Ukraine today
     
    It was probably single digit percentage support in both cases, if it was a couple % higher in SE Ukraine it's not a big difference.

    Replies: @Beckow

    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don’t know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev

    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul’s wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that “resisting“. But you can’t believe all you hear.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow



    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%
     
    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails
     
    It comes back to what I have been describing as Winning The Peace.

    There are, as yet unconfirmed, reports that power and water are once again on in the parts of Mariupol most distant from the Azov steel works. Infrastructure reconstruction that provides basic livability is a huge first step.

    In areas of the East, Winning The Peace is very achievable. Ukie Maximalists, like TL, do not want to face it... But Russia is now in their new home of Mariupol. They will never leave, unless forced out.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    In The Outlaw Josey Wales, one character who operates a ford just after the US Civil War explains that depending on who uses his ferry across the river, he sings Battle Hymn Of The Republic or Dixie. He is presented as a despicable opportunist but then again that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door.
     
    I estimated that perhaps 5% of Finns were quiet Commie sympathizers. Do you agree or disagree?

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything
     
    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    Replies: @Beckow

  180. @German_reader
    @songbird

    I thought you were making this up, but apparently it really happened:
    https://www.news.com.au/world/british-navy-mistakes-whales-for-submarines-and-torpedoes-them-killing-three-during-falklands-war/news-story/92e895efd40db654fa41a62a3312f4c0

    I guess you could count them as neutral collateral damage, like Swiss or Irish killed in bombing raids during WW2? So there'd have to be a category for "neutral victims (at least three whales)" on the relevant Wikipedia page.

    Replies: @songbird

    I believe the Argentines also killed one. Their sub San Luis (old German hardware) hit something with a Mark 37 torpedo (old American hardware).

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird

    Pretty tragic. Falklands war was a fairly stupid war anyway which only happened because of miscalculations on both sides (with the Argentine junta obviously being most culpable), the death of those neutral whales makes it even sadder.
    Had never thought about whales and submarines before, apparently it was an issue during the world wars:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/04/14/u-boat-or-whale---secret-wwii-report-explains-the-difference/?sh=36d7a26b18a8

  181. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @AP


    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

     

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don't know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%
     
    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev
     
    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul's wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that "resisting". But you can't believe all you hear.

    Replies: @A123, @Wielgus, @AP

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails

    It comes back to what I have been describing as Winning The Peace.

    There are, as yet unconfirmed, reports that power and water are once again on in the parts of Mariupol most distant from the Azov steel works. Infrastructure reconstruction that provides basic livability is a huge first step.

    In areas of the East, Winning The Peace is very achievable. Ukie Maximalists, like TL, do not want to face it… But Russia is now in their new home of Mariupol. They will never leave, unless forced out.

    PEACE 😇

  182. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    "jacobmag"? what is that?

    But ok, what you quoted could be said about almost any country. Definitely about Ukraine, Bulgaria, Baltics, some also about UK, Canada (Justin is quite something, isn't he?). In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    The question is: what are the general attitudes by eastern Ukrainians towards Russia? In a war most prefer to play it safe. There is nothing to show "uniform hostility" towards Russia, or "uniform support". We have the previous elections that were for the pro-Russian side and small numbers fighting on each side. Plus selective videos that may not represent what most people think, I have seen both.

    It is clearly not like Finland in 1940 - that may fit better Galicia and Kiev, but not the south-east. When you base your analysis on faulty analogies it backfires.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.

    Really? First, Pirani does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples. It’s really you that are bantering around meaningless cliches that don’t add up to anything worth contemplating. So, you really believe that the government and political repression found in the two new “republics” are analogous to what one can find within Slovakia? I’ll give you a chance to respond, but from your initial reply I can tell you from the onset that I’m not really looking forward to to spending much time debating these ridiculous notions of yours. I do realize that you wrote that things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground. There may even be some small truth to this, but the fact that you’re trying to insinuate that the authors opinions aren’t to be considered as accurate because others may be writing BS, is BS in itself. Remember, Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Mr. Hack

    I knew Pirani in the 1990s. An ex-member of that mad British Trotskyist sect the WRP.

    , @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack


    ...Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”
     
    Admirable? By whom? Since I am not in a position to evaluate Donbas, I will compare what I know. I am not claiming one or the other, it is as you said:

    things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground.
     
    Here :
    - routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents
    Our main opposition party (left) has its main protagonists in jail or charged with the crime of "releasing private information about opponents during previous election". Yes, they did - they accused some people of "corruption" and gave a few examples (seemingly true) during pre-election debates.
    The second strongest opposition party (right) has been banned outright for speaking badly about Romas and the benefits they get. Intimidating enough?

    - institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights: see above.

    - collapse of industry Bingo: our actual industrial activity is down with many mfg plants shut down or working part time.

    - catastrophic fall in living standards. Not yet, but some drop and it is accelerating.

    I am sure similar stuff can be said about Ukraine or Bulgaria. Then there is Justin Trudeau with his uber-liberal C19 suppression etc....It is an increasingly ugly world out there.

    My point is that the accusations like these are essentially political and very common. You believe some and ignore others. Whether it is worse in Donbas is relative: worse than what? Interestingly enough even you or Pirani don't claim that Crimea is worse. What if the people in eastern Ukraine look at Crimea as a model and not Donbas?

    Replies: @Wielgus

  183. @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan.
     
    It is not just some nonsense, RF-ians simply are desperately wishing that CCP'ied China started some significant aggresive action as soon as possible, cause it would relieve the pressure from their clumsy actions against UA, but zero coviding is shutting that possibility down.

    No mental problem after, just cure it with starting fantasy about winning fights against Chinese svidomists and it really being crypto preparations for street fightings in Taipei ;)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I’d wish for Taiwan to peacefully reintegrate when secessionism die off in the long term. But maybe Xi also reads AK and he’s more convinced military unification is a good idea after being impressed by what Russia says about Russia’s performance, and everyone in China must cope with the new isolationism.

  184. A123 says: • Website

    Another country breaks away from EU ‘sanctions’: (1)

    Greek Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas has claimed that the country will still pay for gas from Russian energy giant Gazprom but claimed the country will do so in a way that does not violate existing sanctions against Russia.

    Minister Skrekas stated that the payment for April’s gas, paid for by the utility DEPA, would be paid on time on May 25th but refused to disclose which currency the payment for the gas would be made in.

    When will honesty break out? Europe disagrees with the EU.

    I suggest a new name — the European non-Union [EnU].

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/04/29/greece-claims-it-will-pay-for-russian-gas-without-violating-sanctions/

  185. @Beckow
    @AP


    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

     

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don't know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%
     
    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev
     
    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul's wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that "resisting". But you can't believe all you hear.

    Replies: @A123, @Wielgus, @AP

    In The Outlaw Josey Wales, one character who operates a ford just after the US Civil War explains that depending on who uses his ferry across the river, he sings Battle Hymn Of The Republic or Dixie. He is presented as a despicable opportunist but then again that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Wielgus

    Charon sang to the dead too.

    , @Beckow
    @Wielgus


    that is how a lot of people make it through wars.
     
    Today more than in the past. It is relatively easy to isolate and keep your head down.

    I am constantly shocked by how small the numbers are in this war: maybe a few hundred thousand active participants on each side - out of 40 million and 150 million. The casualties estimates are in thousands, or 10-20k. This has had little impact on 97-99% of the population - other than some have moved to safer places.

    That shows a high level of cynicism and distrust of all sides. The dreams of people's war or endless resistance don't match what we see on the ground.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  186. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.
     
    Really? First, Pirani does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples. It's really you that are bantering around meaningless cliches that don't add up to anything worth contemplating. So, you really believe that the government and political repression found in the two new "republics" are analogous to what one can find within Slovakia? I'll give you a chance to respond, but from your initial reply I can tell you from the onset that I'm not really looking forward to to spending much time debating these ridiculous notions of yours. I do realize that you wrote that things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground. There may even be some small truth to this, but the fact that you're trying to insinuate that the authors opinions aren't to be considered as accurate because others may be writing BS, is BS in itself. Remember, Pirani "does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples."

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Beckow

    I knew Pirani in the 1990s. An ex-member of that mad British Trotskyist sect the WRP.

  187. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Sun is a loose analogy to Karlin, I should give you more context. Sun Yat-sen is considered the founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan for leading the Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Manchu Qing Dynasty. He came from a marginal Han region and spoke a dialect unintelligible to Mandarin speakers-- Cantonese.

    Cantonese tend to be darker, smaller, beardless and there is mutual discrimination between northerners and southerners, former Mongol commenter AltanBakshi use to say that southern Chinese are gay. But Sun nevertheless successfully led Han Chinese overthrow of Manchus.

    https://i.postimg.cc/dVtm4bd4/Sun-Yat-Sen-in-Japan-1900.png
    Sun (right) in Tokyo with his Japanese friends. Sun was patronized by the Japanese in leading Han nationalism against Manchus but Sun later turned around and said Manchuria and Mongolia belonged to China too, and furthermore cooperated with the Soviets, which the Japanese considered as betrayal.

    So Sun transformed from a Han nationalist -- to a ROC nationalist* that claims all former Qing territory, Manchuria/Mongolia/Xinjiang/Tibet.

    Whereas Karlin I think has only ever claimed as a RusFed nationalist (and not a Russian nationalist), which can include Caucasoids like him and Mongoloids like AltanBakshi.

    *ROC nationalism is basically congruent with PRC nationalism. Han nationalism 皇汉 huanghan "Imperial Han" is discouraged by the PRC because its considered chauvinistic against minorities and puts PRC's territorial claims to question; only PRC nationalism is acceptable.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Yellowface Anon


    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan
     
    Exactly. I remember back in the 1980s(?) there was a big story in the NYT about a delegation of ROC officials visiting the PRC for the first time, and being very impressed that their own great founding-hero was also regarding as the great founding-hero of the PRC, with all sorts of monuments and honors.

    It's a little like two cousins from feuding family branches being surprised to discover that they both honor the same grandfather...
  188. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @German_reader

    I believe the Argentines also killed one. Their sub San Luis (old German hardware) hit something with a Mark 37 torpedo (old American hardware).

    Replies: @German_reader

    Pretty tragic. Falklands war was a fairly stupid war anyway which only happened because of miscalculations on both sides (with the Argentine junta obviously being most culpable), the death of those neutral whales makes it even sadder.
    Had never thought about whales and submarines before, apparently it was an issue during the world wars:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/04/14/u-boat-or-whale---secret-wwii-report-explains-the-difference/?sh=36d7a26b18a8

    • Thanks: songbird
  189. @Yevardian
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri


    “idiosyncratic” accent
     
    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK's has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I'm not mistaken. I personally can't judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I'm hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they're not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an 'eager American' noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can't say I dislike it, but I definitely can't listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn't learn their parents' mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan's (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it's about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man's talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience's head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don't pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can't really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn't find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a 'Turkic' people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia's disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can't call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of 'Nazi' either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China's violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran 'to build relationships with other countries in the region' and defer to Saudi Arabia 'as a goon squad you go to smash things up' or something along those lines. He didn't make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America's historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn't mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq's 'optimistic' predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it's better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mikel, @utu, @Ron Unz

    I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.

    That happens, especially at certain cultural levels, but do you speak like your parents? I certainly don’t. Even though my parents were not foreign immigrants, they also brought their village accents and forms of speech, both in Basque and Spanish, that I soon learned to avoid.

    It’s difficult to avoid passing some of your speech mannerisms on to your children but, as Silvio says, it’s also very difficult to prevent them from acquiring the local accent, unless they live in isolated ethnic enclaves. Even young Hispanics around here who live surrounded mostly by their peers tend to speak clean English if they lived all their lives in the US.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Hi Mikel, I realize I missed your question on seeds from the last thread. I don't do much with planting honestly. I do a lot more with animals since gardens require all the effort in my slamming busy summer building season. My wife and kids do some, but nothing really intensive. I get all my veggies from a local market gardener who uses some of the land at my shop. He keeps me in veggies for free.

    I asked him and he gets stuff from Fedco and Johnny's Seeds. It doesn't seem like Linseed should be too exotic to get. Have you checked at a local feed store that sells cover crops seeds, soil amendments, and animals feed and supplies? Usually they have a good selection of stuff like that. I'm not talking about Tractor Supply since they are useless unless one wants some weird "farm" decor. If you find out where the actual farmers go, you should get pointed in the right direction.

    Replies: @Mikel

  190. @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    In The Outlaw Josey Wales, one character who operates a ford just after the US Civil War explains that depending on who uses his ferry across the river, he sings Battle Hymn Of The Republic or Dixie. He is presented as a despicable opportunist but then again that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow

    Charon sang to the dead too.

  191. German_reader says:

    Article in right-wing German newspaper Junge Freiheit calling for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine and integrating Ukraine into a “Europe of nations”:
    https://jungefreiheit.de/debatte/kommentar/2022/moskau-angst-atomkrieg/

    Wouldn’t be remarkable, if the author Stefan Scheil weren’t a somewhat notorious revisionist historian, who’s written books about topics like Poland’s alleged responsibility for WW2. He’s also an AfD politician. We’re living in strange times.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @sudden death
    @German_reader

    idk, imho it seems way more natural for those types to return into Brest-Litovsk circa 1918 mindset than to be voluntary supporting Putin's version of multi-culti "antiNazi" imperialism...

  192. Kellogg’s recently put pronouns on their breakfast cereals aimed at children.

    From a nationalist perspective, is there really any benefit to having these giant, woke conglomerates that make consumer products? I feel like it’s obvious that they are more likely to be woke-captured, than smaller, lesser-known brands.

    If there is not a systematic economic theory designed to prevent capture by wokes, runaway signaling, and general parasitism, there should be.

  193. @silviosilver
    @Dmitry


    When saw you in Unz Review, an exotic Middle Eastern looking person, “idiosyncratic” accent, telling the white rednecks that he is a “Russian nationalist”, I didn’t consider it undecipherable.
     
    What's the backstory of his accent? Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That's the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some "local flavor" accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    The effect of your trolling, continues after you abandoned the forum, when user Yahye (apparently an Egyptian elite), has told me that he considers “Russians” to be “people of color” that he feels comradeship to, after he saw a picture of you.
     
    Lol, hardly a surprise that the internet's premier racial straw-clutcher would feel that way, even if he was pouring it on thick with "people of color" remark (assuming he actually made it, and it's not just your own gloss).

    If they ever remake "My Fair Lady," with the by now customary replacement of a white character with a POC, I suggest, in Yahya's honor, an Arab trying to learn the Received Pronunciation with the phrase: "It is plain as rain they can pass in Spain."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmADMB2utAo

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Thulean Friend

    Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)

    You’re exaggerating. Found this recent interview of his (I haven’t listened to him in years, so I have pretty “fresh ears” so to speak) that I fished out of the bottomless bitchute sea:



    Video Link
    If you try hard enough, you might notice a tinge of an accent but it isn’t nearly as dramatic as you claim. I only watched the first few mins, since I only wanted to check the supposed accent, but he mentions he landed in the UK at age 6 and then left a decade later to America early on. I don’t think this is the mystery you purport it to be. Voices range in all sorts of ways.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    Although the vocabulary and grammar are like those of an educated native speaker, it's a rather strong accent; perhaps your Swedish ears don't pick up on it? The English part is an eclectic mix of American and English which may mask the Russian accent somewhat.

  194. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    In Slovakia the same and worse is said daily about the current government: meaningless cliches thrown at other side in the political arena.
     
    Really? First, Pirani does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples. It's really you that are bantering around meaningless cliches that don't add up to anything worth contemplating. So, you really believe that the government and political repression found in the two new "republics" are analogous to what one can find within Slovakia? I'll give you a chance to respond, but from your initial reply I can tell you from the onset that I'm not really looking forward to to spending much time debating these ridiculous notions of yours. I do realize that you wrote that things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground. There may even be some small truth to this, but the fact that you're trying to insinuate that the authors opinions aren't to be considered as accurate because others may be writing BS, is BS in itself. Remember, Pirani "does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples."

    Replies: @Wielgus, @Beckow

    …Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”

    Admirable? By whom? Since I am not in a position to evaluate Donbas, I will compare what I know. I am not claiming one or the other, it is as you said:

    things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground.

    Here :
    routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents
    Our main opposition party (left) has its main protagonists in jail or charged with the crime of “releasing private information about opponents during previous election”. Yes, they did – they accused some people of “corruption” and gave a few examples (seemingly true) during pre-election debates.
    The second strongest opposition party (right) has been banned outright for speaking badly about Romas and the benefits they get. Intimidating enough?

    institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights: see above.

    collapse of industry Bingo: our actual industrial activity is down with many mfg plants shut down or working part time.

    catastrophic fall in living standards. Not yet, but some drop and it is accelerating.

    I am sure similar stuff can be said about Ukraine or Bulgaria. Then there is Justin Trudeau with his uber-liberal C19 suppression etc….It is an increasingly ugly world out there.

    My point is that the accusations like these are essentially political and very common. You believe some and ignore others. Whether it is worse in Donbas is relative: worse than what? Interestingly enough even you or Pirani don’t claim that Crimea is worse. What if the people in eastern Ukraine look at Crimea as a model and not Donbas?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    A lot of these things could be said of Turkey. The USA representative of the CHP, Turkey's official opposition party, was arrested by police today when he got off a plane from the USA at Istanbul airport.

  195. @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    In The Outlaw Josey Wales, one character who operates a ford just after the US Civil War explains that depending on who uses his ferry across the river, he sings Battle Hymn Of The Republic or Dixie. He is presented as a despicable opportunist but then again that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Beckow

    that is how a lot of people make it through wars.

    Today more than in the past. It is relatively easy to isolate and keep your head down.

    I am constantly shocked by how small the numbers are in this war: maybe a few hundred thousand active participants on each side – out of 40 million and 150 million. The casualties estimates are in thousands, or 10-20k. This has had little impact on 97-99% of the population – other than some have moved to safer places.

    That shows a high level of cynicism and distrust of all sides. The dreams of people’s war or endless resistance don’t match what we see on the ground.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces. Tukhachevsky, a former Tsarist officer who commanded Soviet troops against Poland, was heard to lament that he did not have the huge numbers of cavalry the Tsarist army had had in 1914. The Red cavalry he had were a scratch force of Cossacks and other cavalry, and not very numerous.

    Replies: @AP

  196. @German_reader
    Article in right-wing German newspaper Junge Freiheit calling for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine and integrating Ukraine into a "Europe of nations":
    https://jungefreiheit.de/debatte/kommentar/2022/moskau-angst-atomkrieg/

    Wouldn't be remarkable, if the author Stefan Scheil weren't a somewhat notorious revisionist historian, who's written books about topics like Poland's alleged responsibility for WW2. He's also an AfD politician. We're living in strange times.

    Replies: @sudden death

    idk, imho it seems way more natural for those types to return into Brest-Litovsk circa 1918 mindset than to be voluntary supporting Putin’s version of multi-culti “antiNazi” imperialism…

  197. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack


    ...Pirani “does an admirable job of backing up his accusations with concrete examples.”
     
    Admirable? By whom? Since I am not in a position to evaluate Donbas, I will compare what I know. I am not claiming one or the other, it is as you said:

    things like this are written about daily in Slovakia and therefore may not actually reflect the reality that is to be found on the ground.
     
    Here :
    - routinely intimidated organized labor and political dissidents
    Our main opposition party (left) has its main protagonists in jail or charged with the crime of "releasing private information about opponents during previous election". Yes, they did - they accused some people of "corruption" and gave a few examples (seemingly true) during pre-election debates.
    The second strongest opposition party (right) has been banned outright for speaking badly about Romas and the benefits they get. Intimidating enough?

    - institutionalized violence, and trampled on human rights: see above.

    - collapse of industry Bingo: our actual industrial activity is down with many mfg plants shut down or working part time.

    - catastrophic fall in living standards. Not yet, but some drop and it is accelerating.

    I am sure similar stuff can be said about Ukraine or Bulgaria. Then there is Justin Trudeau with his uber-liberal C19 suppression etc....It is an increasingly ugly world out there.

    My point is that the accusations like these are essentially political and very common. You believe some and ignore others. Whether it is worse in Donbas is relative: worse than what? Interestingly enough even you or Pirani don't claim that Crimea is worse. What if the people in eastern Ukraine look at Crimea as a model and not Donbas?

    Replies: @Wielgus

    A lot of these things could be said of Turkey. The USA representative of the CHP, Turkey’s official opposition party, was arrested by police today when he got off a plane from the USA at Istanbul airport.

  198. One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ – “they hate America!” – against anyone daring to question a long proxy war strategy. I was re-watching some of the clips from those years a few weeks ago, and it was jarring to see the contrast with today. Someone like Colbert actually used to challenge the system, rather than amplify their talking points.

    Yesterday, USG announced Disinformation Governance Board, a de facto censorship ministry run out of the Dept. of Homeland Security. It obliterated any remaining pretense that US liberals are liberal in any way that actually matters anymore.

    The Grayzone is getting harassed by some seemingly private entity working on behalf of the USG that demands “explanations” for them having the temerity to be independent.

    I’m increasingly skeptical that the Musk thing will materially change matters.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Thulean Friend


    One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ
     
    The "Liberal" Party has always been the War Party. NeoConDemocrats impacting the GOP to the point where GW Bush started a war is the anomaly. Bill Kristol and George Will becoming voices of DNC dogmatic orthodoxy is a return to historical norms. Holdouts like Cheney and Romney should change parties, bit will probably choose K $treet instead.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Thulean Friend

    might be better to see American political alignment in terms of deviation from the neoliberal imperialist orthodoxy, given how close Dem & GOP are to each other. https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

  199. @Beckow
    @Wielgus


    that is how a lot of people make it through wars.
     
    Today more than in the past. It is relatively easy to isolate and keep your head down.

    I am constantly shocked by how small the numbers are in this war: maybe a few hundred thousand active participants on each side - out of 40 million and 150 million. The casualties estimates are in thousands, or 10-20k. This has had little impact on 97-99% of the population - other than some have moved to safer places.

    That shows a high level of cynicism and distrust of all sides. The dreams of people's war or endless resistance don't match what we see on the ground.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces. Tukhachevsky, a former Tsarist officer who commanded Soviet troops against Poland, was heard to lament that he did not have the huge numbers of cavalry the Tsarist army had had in 1914. The Red cavalry he had were a scratch force of Cossacks and other cavalry, and not very numerous.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wielgus


    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces.
     
    By 1920 each side had about a million soldiers total. The Battle of Warsaw involved slightly over 100,000 troops for each side.

    In contrast, Tannenberg involved 150,000 German vs. 230,000 Russian troops. So the Soviet-Polish War was on a smaller scale than the World Wars but was not that small.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  200. Ever so slowly reality is leaking through:

  201. @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    I’ve noticed whenever Kofman’s interviewer repeats outside claims or asks certain questions with the flavour of the Russian army ‘on the verge of collapse’ or whatnot, Kofman always quickly shut it down with ‘I’m not interested in rhetoric/the propaganda war’ etc.
     
    Sure, like I said Kofman came across as a very level-headed guy trying to be as objective as possible given his constraints. The problem is I strongly suspect that his DC constraints are pretty severe, so it's easy to imagine that he's consciously or unconsciously trimming his views as a consequence, for example not questioning certain sources of information that are widely believed by everyone in his professional circle or that sort of thing. I remember this happened during the lead-up to the Iraq War, and I think the political atmosphere was much less extreme back then.

    Perhaps he’s junior without direct military experience, but notice how much less emotional he is than Ritter also. As for the others, they worked in the American military, which works quite a bit differently, and as far as I know, they don’t speak Russian, so I’d take their statements with a grain of salt.
     
    Absolutely. Ritter's far too emotional about all sorts of things, but don't forget that his career was destroyed by the Neocons, and until this issue suddenly popped up, he'd almost disappeared from public attention. He's just horrified that America is almost doing an Iraq War II but on a vastly larger scale. Mearsheimer is also fairly emotional, though in a different way. He'd been totally purged but now he's suddenly become one of the most visible academics on the planet, with something like 40 million views of his lectures, and unsurprisingly he seems extremely happy about his new situation.

    Also, Ritter had actually trained as a Soviet military specialist and been based in Russia doing arms control, so I do think he speaks at least some Russian and his Russia military expertise is probably much stronger than I'd originally assumed.

    Replies: @Matra

    A month or so before the war Kofman pointed out that Edward Luttwak and others who dismissed the possibility of war are going to have egg on their faces. His arguments were the main reason I also thought there’d be a war. That said, he strikes me as being a bit inflexible in his thinking. Once he makes a prediction he doubles, triples down, and comes across as though he’s more interested in confirming his predictions rather than reconsidering them in light of new facts.

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’. When that ‘leading Ukraine down the primrose path’ video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began. I’m sure there are bitter elements in the US mediasphere who have unfinished business with him over that book he wrote with Stephen Walt.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Matra


    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’.
     
    He's at least useful for strategic planners in the US.

    Replies: @Sean

    , @Ron Unz
    @Matra


    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’. When that ‘leading Ukraine down the primrose path’ video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began.
     
    Ha, ha, ha. They obviously tried! Here's a comment I left elsewhere a couple of days ago:

    Well, over the last few weeks I’ve listened to several hours of Mearsheimer’s recent presentations, and he seemed absolutely razor sharp.

    I also can’t remember the last time he seemed so happy and enthusiastic about his topic, which is quite understandable. He was hit very hard after publishing his important Israel Lobby book, and eventually blacklisted from the media. In fact, just a few months ago he was bemoaning to me that no one in the MSM was willing to draw upon his prescient Russia/Ukraine expertise.

    But then his Ukraine video from six years ago went hyper-viral with 24 million(!!!) views, possibly more than any serious academic lecture in the entire history of the Internet, and he became an ultra-hot commodity. The New Yorker did a very long and respectful interview and the Economist solicited a long piece from him. He’s been getting 1,000 emails a day and a constant stream of speaking requests, probably more attention than he even did at the height of his Israel Lobby wave. And whereas the Israel Lobby issue was highly disputed and denounced at the time, everyone with any sense knows perfectly well that Mearsheimer’s public predictions from six years ago have entirely come true.

    Several of Mearsheimer’s other videos add another 10-15 million views, so he may be up around 40 million total, possibly more than any legitimate academic in modern world history. For example, Noam Chomsky and Steven Pinker are very big academic names, but I think they’re each under 10 million views or so. If you’d gone through a dozen years of harsh media blacklisting and then suddenly become the most prominent and visible academic expert in the world, you’d be pretty happy as well.
     
    And here's a paragraph from one of my articles a month ago:

    Such massive global attention finally forced our media to take notice, and the New Yorker solicited an interview with Mearsheimer, allowing him to explain to his disbelieving questioner that American actions had clearly provoked the conflict. A couple of years earlier, that same interviewer had ridiculed Prof. Cohen for doubting the reality of Russiagate, but this time he seemed much more respectful, perhaps because the balance of media power was now reversed; his magazine’s 1.2 million subscriber-base was dwarfed by the global audience listening to the views of his subject.
     
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/
  202. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend
    One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ - "they hate America!" - against anyone daring to question a long proxy war strategy. I was re-watching some of the clips from those years a few weeks ago, and it was jarring to see the contrast with today. Someone like Colbert actually used to challenge the system, rather than amplify their talking points.

    Yesterday, USG announced Disinformation Governance Board, a de facto censorship ministry run out of the Dept. of Homeland Security. It obliterated any remaining pretense that US liberals are liberal in any way that actually matters anymore.

    The Grayzone is getting harassed by some seemingly private entity working on behalf of the USG that demands "explanations" for them having the temerity to be independent.

    I'm increasingly skeptical that the Musk thing will materially change matters.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ

    The “Liberal” Party has always been the War Party. NeoConDemocrats impacting the GOP to the point where GW Bush started a war is the anomaly. Bill Kristol and George Will becoming voices of DNC dogmatic orthodoxy is a return to historical norms. Holdouts like Cheney and Romney should change parties, bit will probably choose K \$treet instead.

    PEACE 😇

  203. @Thulean Friend
    One thing that has changed massively since the early 2000s antiwar movement is that liberal channels are more bloodthirsty than Fox News these days. Some of their TV pundits even bring out the old talking point that conservatives used to employ - "they hate America!" - against anyone daring to question a long proxy war strategy. I was re-watching some of the clips from those years a few weeks ago, and it was jarring to see the contrast with today. Someone like Colbert actually used to challenge the system, rather than amplify their talking points.

    Yesterday, USG announced Disinformation Governance Board, a de facto censorship ministry run out of the Dept. of Homeland Security. It obliterated any remaining pretense that US liberals are liberal in any way that actually matters anymore.

    The Grayzone is getting harassed by some seemingly private entity working on behalf of the USG that demands "explanations" for them having the temerity to be independent.

    I'm increasingly skeptical that the Musk thing will materially change matters.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    might be better to see American political alignment in terms of deviation from the neoliberal imperialist orthodoxy, given how close Dem & GOP are to each other. https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

  204. @Yevardian
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri


    “idiosyncratic” accent
     
    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK's has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I'm not mistaken. I personally can't judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I'm hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they're not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an 'eager American' noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can't say I dislike it, but I definitely can't listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn't learn their parents' mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan's (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it's about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man's talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience's head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don't pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can't really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn't find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a 'Turkic' people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia's disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can't call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of 'Nazi' either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China's violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran 'to build relationships with other countries in the region' and defer to Saudi Arabia 'as a goon squad you go to smash things up' or something along those lines. He didn't make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America's historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn't mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq's 'optimistic' predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it's better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mikel, @utu, @Ron Unz

    Thanks for reading Peter Zeihan’s book and writing brief report. You know what I think of him: charlatan and hustler though a very talented one.

    Peter Zeihan : How China Will Die

    youtube.com/watch?v=bww_LNrJYHs

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    Maybe he's not saying how it would turn out, but how it should turn out. Not prediction, but advice for the regime change team working on China. Same with Gordon Chang.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  205. @Matra
    @Ron Unz

    A month or so before the war Kofman pointed out that Edward Luttwak and others who dismissed the possibility of war are going to have egg on their faces. His arguments were the main reason I also thought there'd be a war. That said, he strikes me as being a bit inflexible in his thinking. Once he makes a prediction he doubles, triples down, and comes across as though he's more interested in confirming his predictions rather than reconsidering them in light of new facts.

    On Mearsheimer I'm surprised there wasn't more of an effort to get him 'cancelled'. When that 'leading Ukraine down the primrose path' video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began. I'm sure there are bitter elements in the US mediasphere who have unfinished business with him over that book he wrote with Stephen Walt.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Ron Unz

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’.

    He’s at least useful for strategic planners in the US.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon

    He would have been had anyone listened to him when he predicted (two decades ago) that Ukraine would need a nuclear deterrent to keep Russia at bay. Or four decades ago when he insisted that the Russian army was crap.

    It there was strategic planning in the US then the policy of supporting Chinese growth in order to give Russia something to worry about would not have continued as a way for investors to reap maximum returns. China has economies of scale that will make the West unable to compete commercially, and in a war that productive capacity will be churning out weapons. I would note that China makes the cheaper drones the Ukrainians are using and the drone detection systems the Russians are using to located and liquidate the drone operators.

  206. Anglo-Saxon Kings Made Sure to Eat Their Vegetables, Study Shows

    Anglo-Saxon kings have long reigned in the popular imagination as rapacious meat lovers, eagerly feasting on thick slabs of mutton and beef, washed down with copious amounts of mead and ale.

    It appears, however, that their diet leaned more toward vegetables, cereal and bread, according to a study that was published this month in Anglo-Saxon England and could undermine the menu choices at modern-day restaurants that claim to replicate medieval times.

    “There is no sign that elite people were disproportionately eating more meat,” Tom Lambert, a historian at Sidney Sussex College at the University of Cambridge and one of the study’s two authors, said in an interview on Wednesday.

    “When they were not having these big public feasts,” he said, “they were eating a vegetable broth with their bread like everyone else was.”

    Return to tradition! Reject excessive meat-eating (and preferably skip it altogether)!

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Is that why they were defeated by the Normans?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Though, in all seriousness, I do think that most people would be surprised by how little meat most of their ancestors ate. Typical peasant in 1800s Ireland only ate meat once (on Easter) or twice a year.

    Recently, I was wondering how much butter they ate.

    I find it quite interesting that based on archaeogenetics, polygenic scores predicting coronary artery/heart disease have increased. Makes me think that it wasn't a lot, but their bodies were getting better at sucking up all the cholesterol, to make the best use of it.

  207. @utu
    @Yevardian

    Thanks for reading Peter Zeihan's book and writing brief report. You know what I think of him: charlatan and hustler though a very talented one.

    Peter Zeihan : How China Will Die

    youtube.com/watch?v=bww_LNrJYHs

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Maybe he’s not saying how it would turn out, but how it should turn out. Not prediction, but advice for the regime change team working on China. Same with Gordon Chang.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    It can't get any clearer than this:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=l6wkDJhFSCE

    This kind of naysayers wish to turn China into a large Russia, and they will get it if Xi jumps the gun.

  208. @Thulean Friend

    Is that why they were defeated by the Normans?

    • LOL: German_reader, Wokechoke
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @songbird

    Well, Harold was a Danish Halfling. The Huscarls, his bodyguard were more often that not Danes. A lot of Pork, herring and Salmon. No Potato Pizza yet. Also William the Conqueror was an itinerant child dodging assassins every day of his young life.

    We are talking about the Heptarchy kings rather than the Canute (Dane) Hairfoot (Dane) Edward (Anglo Norman) and Harold (grandson of a Danish King maternal side).

    The Byzantine Emperors ate leafy greens, onions, goat cheese and olives...and often tended to wash the meals and prepare the meals for themselves. Poisoning was a real issue in the Dark Ages. Alfred the Great had several older brothers who dropped dead in weird ways. I can see how they might lay off heavy eating.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

  209. @Yellowface Anon
    @Matra


    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’.
     
    He's at least useful for strategic planners in the US.

    Replies: @Sean

    He would have been had anyone listened to him when he predicted (two decades ago) that Ukraine would need a nuclear deterrent to keep Russia at bay. Or four decades ago when he insisted that the Russian army was crap.

    It there was strategic planning in the US then the policy of supporting Chinese growth in order to give Russia something to worry about would not have continued as a way for investors to reap maximum returns. China has economies of scale that will make the West unable to compete commercially, and in a war that productive capacity will be churning out weapons. I would note that China makes the cheaper drones the Ukrainians are using and the drone detection systems the Russians are using to located and liquidate the drone operators.

  210. As everyone here is too serious, I present the opportunity to:

    😁 Learn From FLORIDA MAN 😂

    https://www.cigarcitybrewing.com/gator-gazette/

    PEACE 😇

     

     

  211. There’s a Ukrainian battalion/regiment surrounded in the woods in Oskil north of Slovyansk. There will be many more pockets as the spring turns to summer.

  212. @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Is that why they were defeated by the Normans?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Well, Harold was a Danish Halfling. The Huscarls, his bodyguard were more often that not Danes. A lot of Pork, herring and Salmon. No Potato Pizza yet. Also William the Conqueror was an itinerant child dodging assassins every day of his young life.

    We are talking about the Heptarchy kings rather than the Canute (Dane) Hairfoot (Dane) Edward (Anglo Norman) and Harold (grandson of a Danish King maternal side).

    The Byzantine Emperors ate leafy greens, onions, goat cheese and olives…and often tended to wash the meals and prepare the meals for themselves. Poisoning was a real issue in the Dark Ages. Alfred the Great had several older brothers who dropped dead in weird ways. I can see how they might lay off heavy eating.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Wokechoke

    Hunters today don't kill female animals, and this seems to have carried on to dinnerplate mores.
    The slaughter of female animals is generally prohibited, and that of female cows punishable by death.

    This makes sense, the move away from this was primarily judeo-christian who desacralized everything.

    Slaves have no need for intricate rituals, rites or civility of course.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/781981619073318943/882498932456968203/TA0939.jpg

    , @songbird
    @Wokechoke

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold's remains.

    Don't know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes, but, if so, then I'm willing to roll the dice, and call him "King Harold." Especially, if it means that the Windsors can be transitioned to Africa ahead of schedule.

    Replies: @S

  213. sher singh says:
    @Wokechoke
    @songbird

    Well, Harold was a Danish Halfling. The Huscarls, his bodyguard were more often that not Danes. A lot of Pork, herring and Salmon. No Potato Pizza yet. Also William the Conqueror was an itinerant child dodging assassins every day of his young life.

    We are talking about the Heptarchy kings rather than the Canute (Dane) Hairfoot (Dane) Edward (Anglo Norman) and Harold (grandson of a Danish King maternal side).

    The Byzantine Emperors ate leafy greens, onions, goat cheese and olives...and often tended to wash the meals and prepare the meals for themselves. Poisoning was a real issue in the Dark Ages. Alfred the Great had several older brothers who dropped dead in weird ways. I can see how they might lay off heavy eating.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

    Hunters today don’t kill female animals, and this seems to have carried on to dinnerplate mores.
    The slaughter of female animals is generally prohibited, and that of female cows punishable by death.

    This makes sense, the move away from this was primarily judeo-christian who desacralized everything.

    Slaves have no need for intricate rituals, rites or civility of course.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  214. sher singh says:

    Hindu priests thrashing organizers of anti-Khalistan rally

    [MORE]

    Jai Ma Kali

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  215. @Beckow
    @AP


    there might have been some small 5% or so quietly waiting for the Bolsheviks.

     

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door. Oh, and also waiting for Jesus. Most people don't know and it has had no impact. But I will continue quietly waiting.

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%
     
    Wars change everything: in the near future it could be zero or 90% based on who prevails. It is called coming to Jesus moment, a sudden realization that all is different and life has to go on. (I know, too much Jesus. It is Easter and I am still giddy.)

    ..Lucky for Russia that Kherson was captured before the people could get armed on a mass scale, as in Kiev
     
    What? More lucky for the people in Kherson, taking potshots at guys with big guns is a dangerous sport.

    It is good to know that Vilkul is still resisting, Vilkul rules! But I have also heard that Vilkul's wife is looking for him to have a talk about all that "resisting". But you can't believe all you hear.

    Replies: @A123, @Wielgus, @AP

    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door.

    I estimated that perhaps 5% of Finns were quiet Commie sympathizers. Do you agree or disagree?

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything

    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    My point about Miss Vikander was that quietly waiting means nothing - it is invisible. So if there were 5% quietly waiting in Finland it made no difference.


    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?
     
    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority), the war has been going on for 8 years, and the goals are much more ambitious than in 1940 Finland. Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg - Finland said no, lost a war, and Russia took a lot more. There is a lesson there somewhere, this may end the same way.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

  216. @Thulean Friend
    @silviosilver


    Did he only go abroad after the age of 16 or something? That’s the only way I can see someone retaining such a strong Russian accent. If he was younger than that, it seems astonishing to me. Even the most anti-assimilationist parents cannot hope to prevent their children from picking up the local inflections. (His accent sounds distinctly Russian to me, not some “local flavor” accent that people of 3rd and even 4th generation immigrant stock sometimes retain.)
     
    You're exaggerating. Found this recent interview of his (I haven't listened to him in years, so I have pretty "fresh ears" so to speak) that I fished out of the bottomless bitchute sea:

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/dSg4rHIYEosY/

    If you try hard enough, you might notice a tinge of an accent but it isn't nearly as dramatic as you claim. I only watched the first few mins, since I only wanted to check the supposed accent, but he mentions he landed in the UK at age 6 and then left a decade later to America early on. I don't think this is the mystery you purport it to be. Voices range in all sorts of ways.

    Replies: @AP

    Although the vocabulary and grammar are like those of an educated native speaker, it’s a rather strong accent; perhaps your Swedish ears don’t pick up on it? The English part is an eclectic mix of American and English which may mask the Russian accent somewhat.

  217. Scott Ritter seems to be ignoring the entire month of March 2022. The Russian army had just as large of military advantage in March as they do now in April. Yet the Russian army floundered in March. I’d give about even odds that the Russian army will flounder in April/May as well.

    Suggesting the Russian army is going slowly as a strategy is ludicrous. It’s been widely reported that Putin wants some sort of “win” by May 9th (Victory Day). The appearance of going slowly is a sign they are not winning.

    Suggesting the Javelin missile has not been effective is refuted by the many examples of “jack-in-the-box” photos of Russian tanks that have blown their turrets a great distance.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  218. @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces. Tukhachevsky, a former Tsarist officer who commanded Soviet troops against Poland, was heard to lament that he did not have the huge numbers of cavalry the Tsarist army had had in 1914. The Red cavalry he had were a scratch force of Cossacks and other cavalry, and not very numerous.

    Replies: @AP

    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces.

    By 1920 each side had about a million soldiers total. The Battle of Warsaw involved slightly over 100,000 troops for each side.

    In contrast, Tannenberg involved 150,000 German vs. 230,000 Russian troops. So the Soviet-Polish War was on a smaller scale than the World Wars but was not that small.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @AP

    The Russians had to fight around the two shores of a lake. A lesson.

  219. Putin might have decided Nuclear Orthodoxy is good for archeofuturism in Western Europe.

  220. @AP
    @Beckow


    I have been quietly waiting for Alicia Vikander to move next door.
     
    I estimated that perhaps 5% of Finns were quiet Commie sympathizers. Do you agree or disagree?

    The percentage of people wanting union with Russia in those areas was around 5% to 10%

    Wars change everything
     
    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    Replies: @Beckow

    My point about Miss Vikander was that quietly waiting means nothing – it is invisible. So if there were 5% quietly waiting in Finland it made no difference.

    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?

    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority), the war has been going on for 8 years, and the goals are much more ambitious than in 1940 Finland. Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg – Finland said no, lost a war, and Russia took a lot more. There is a lesson there somewhere, this may end the same way.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    The Finns in a sense caused themselves much trouble. Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority)
     
    In Kharkiv oblast the Russian population is 25% - not a majority.

    And of course not many of those want their Ukrainian homeland to be annexed by Russia. Karlin posted poll results awhile ago - depending on oblast, in eastern Ukraine the percentage wishing for annexation varied from 5% to 10%.

    Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg
     
    "The Soviet delegation demanded that the border between the USSR and Finland on the Karelian Isthmus be moved westward to a point only 30 km (19 mi) east of Viipuri (Russian: Vyborg) and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus. Likewise, the delegation demanded the cession of islands in the Gulf of Finland as well as Rybachy Peninsula (Finnish: Kalastajasaarento). The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there. "

    Soviets formed a puppet government right away when the war started.

    Replies: @Beckow

  221. @Beckow
    @AP

    My point about Miss Vikander was that quietly waiting means nothing - it is invisible. So if there were 5% quietly waiting in Finland it made no difference.


    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?
     
    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority), the war has been going on for 8 years, and the goals are much more ambitious than in 1940 Finland. Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg - Finland said no, lost a war, and Russia took a lot more. There is a lesson there somewhere, this may end the same way.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

    The Finns in a sense caused themselves much trouble. Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Wokechoke


    ...Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.
     
    That is the only conclusion one can make. Finns will deny it, but what happened speaks for itself: Finland joined Nazis in WWII in their attack on Russia.

    Today the unwillingness to take seriously the potential security threats to Russia on its border also shows the "background" - the unstated goals. It is easy to call Russia paranoid - all security concerns can be called paranoid - but as before WWII the logic of self-protection requires that one can't trust the enemy. US wouldn't trust China, Russia or Iran in Quebec, same with UK and Ireland. Why would it be different for Russia?

    Replies: @Wielgus

  222. @AP
    @Wielgus


    The Russian Civil War and the Soviet-Polish War were both fought by comparatively small forces.
     
    By 1920 each side had about a million soldiers total. The Battle of Warsaw involved slightly over 100,000 troops for each side.

    In contrast, Tannenberg involved 150,000 German vs. 230,000 Russian troops. So the Soviet-Polish War was on a smaller scale than the World Wars but was not that small.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    The Russians had to fight around the two shores of a lake. A lesson.

  223. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    My point about Miss Vikander was that quietly waiting means nothing - it is invisible. So if there were 5% quietly waiting in Finland it made no difference.


    Did the number change much in Finland after it was invaded?
     
    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority), the war has been going on for 8 years, and the goals are much more ambitious than in 1940 Finland. Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg - Finland said no, lost a war, and Russia took a lot more. There is a lesson there somewhere, this may end the same way.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority)

    In Kharkiv oblast the Russian population is 25% – not a majority.

    And of course not many of those want their Ukrainian homeland to be annexed by Russia. Karlin posted poll results awhile ago – depending on oblast, in eastern Ukraine the percentage wishing for annexation varied from 5% to 10%.

    Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg

    “The Soviet delegation demanded that the border between the USSR and Finland on the Karelian Isthmus be moved westward to a point only 30 km (19 mi) east of Viipuri (Russian: Vyborg) and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus. Likewise, the delegation demanded the cession of islands in the Gulf of Finland as well as Rybachy Peninsula (Finnish: Kalastajasaarento). The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there. ”

    Soviets formed a puppet government right away when the war started.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    border between be moved westward to a point 19 east of Vyborg and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus.
     
    That's what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf - it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    Russia was pushy because everybody knew that a war was coming and that Finland was potentially allied with Germany - as turned out to be true. Finland would be better off if they agreed to the demand. But as today, rationality was thrown out and people died.

    I also think that Germany's demand in August 1939 for a "corridor" to link East Prussia with Danzig was reasonable. As were previously their demands for protecting German minorities. In hindsight, it is easy to demonize Germans - but at that time those demands should had been taken seriously. It is possible that more reasonable parts of the German elite would act against the Nazis and some of the bloody carnage of WWII would be avoided.

    Replies: @AP

  224. @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.
     
    We will know more soon. Beijing has a rapidly spreading outbreak (1)

    On Thursday, residents of two Chaoyang housing compounds were ordered to stay inside and some clinics and businesses closed.

    Beijing officials reported 50 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total in this coronavirus wave to approximately150.

    The nation's health authority said there were 11,285 new cases across mainland China, with the vast majority still in Shanghai
     

    Incubation time suggests that containment has already been lost. Closing housing after multiple cases are reported is too late.

    If Beijing and its CCP Elites receive different treatment, the gig is up on the inhabitants of Peking being "above all others". If Beijing Elites are permenantly locked down in their cuckpods, that would be true to Red Communist ideals. However, it will create all sorts other problems.

    Perhaps the CCP Elites regret creating the WUHAN-19 plague at their Wuhan Institute of Virology. They really should show contrition for their lab leak impact on the planet's population.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/world/beijing-classes-online-covid-restrictions-tighten

    Replies: @sudden death

    Breaking news straight from the frontlines – some sneaky Chinese svidomist formations apparently managed to break out from encirclement of Shanghai and did the raid into the capital, capturing some district areas, but the people’s war against them is continuing and they will be crushed there too with all the antisvidomist might of CCP:

    BEIJING/SHANGHAI, April 29 (Reuters) – China’s capital Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds on Friday, with authorities ramping up contact tracing to contain a COVID-19 outbreak, while resentment at the month-long lockdown in Shanghai grew.

    In Beijing’s Chaoyang district, the first to undergo mass testing this week, started the last of three rounds of screening on Friday among its 3.5 million residents. Most other districts are due for their third round of tests on Saturday.

    More apartment blocks were sealed, preventing residents from leaving, and certain spas, KTV lounges, gyms, cinemas and libraries and at least two shopping malls closed on Friday.

    “The battle against the COVID epidemic is a war, a war of resistance, a people’s war,” said Liang Wannian, head of the National Health Commission’s COVID response panel.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-closes-more-venues-anger-shanghais-covid-lockdown-grows-2022-04-29/?utm_source=reddit.com

  225. @Sean
    @Beckow

    There is no way to fight against nuclear weapons, As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA "Nuclear weapons have no military purpose, wars cannot be fought with them". The use of a nuke--even a mine--would end the conventional was because once you go nuclear you go nuclear for good., America is not going thermonuclear for anyone.

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA

    Interesting. I’d never heard that claim. Do you have a link to the source?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Ron Unz


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29114378

    Powell also developed something of an obsession with what he believed was American influence over British policy towards Northern Ireland:

    "This obsession was partly caused by his possession of a State Department policy statement (from August 1950) that argued 'it is desirable that Ireland should be integrated into the defence planning of the North Atlantic area, for its strategic position and present lack of defensive capacity are matters of significance'. Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford,"
     

    Neave was the eminence griseistrimental in the rise of Margaret Thatcher

    Replies: @Ron Unz

  226. @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan
     
    https://cdn2.ettoday.net/images/5928/5928557.jpg

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan

    Exactly. I remember back in the 1980s(?) there was a big story in the NYT about a delegation of ROC officials visiting the PRC for the first time, and being very impressed that their own great founding-hero was also regarding as the great founding-hero of the PRC, with all sorts of monuments and honors.

    It’s a little like two cousins from feuding family branches being surprised to discover that they both honor the same grandfather…

  227. @Matra
    @Ron Unz

    A month or so before the war Kofman pointed out that Edward Luttwak and others who dismissed the possibility of war are going to have egg on their faces. His arguments were the main reason I also thought there'd be a war. That said, he strikes me as being a bit inflexible in his thinking. Once he makes a prediction he doubles, triples down, and comes across as though he's more interested in confirming his predictions rather than reconsidering them in light of new facts.

    On Mearsheimer I'm surprised there wasn't more of an effort to get him 'cancelled'. When that 'leading Ukraine down the primrose path' video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began. I'm sure there are bitter elements in the US mediasphere who have unfinished business with him over that book he wrote with Stephen Walt.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Ron Unz

    On Mearsheimer I’m surprised there wasn’t more of an effort to get him ‘cancelled’. When that ‘leading Ukraine down the primrose path’ video got famous there were several days of, what I thought were, organised attacks on him from Anne Applebaum, the former leader of Estonia and others, as well as some petition at his university to have him removed, but it all petered out as quickly as it began.

    Ha, ha, ha. They obviously tried! Here’s a comment I left elsewhere a couple of days ago:

    Well, over the last few weeks I’ve listened to several hours of Mearsheimer’s recent presentations, and he seemed absolutely razor sharp.

    I also can’t remember the last time he seemed so happy and enthusiastic about his topic, which is quite understandable. He was hit very hard after publishing his important Israel Lobby book, and eventually blacklisted from the media. In fact, just a few months ago he was bemoaning to me that no one in the MSM was willing to draw upon his prescient Russia/Ukraine expertise.

    But then his Ukraine video from six years ago went hyper-viral with 24 million(!!!) views, possibly more than any serious academic lecture in the entire history of the Internet, and he became an ultra-hot commodity. The New Yorker did a very long and respectful interview and the Economist solicited a long piece from him. He’s been getting 1,000 emails a day and a constant stream of speaking requests, probably more attention than he even did at the height of his Israel Lobby wave. And whereas the Israel Lobby issue was highly disputed and denounced at the time, everyone with any sense knows perfectly well that Mearsheimer’s public predictions from six years ago have entirely come true.

    Several of Mearsheimer’s other videos add another 10-15 million views, so he may be up around 40 million total, possibly more than any legitimate academic in modern world history. For example, Noam Chomsky and Steven Pinker are very big academic names, but I think they’re each under 10 million views or so. If you’d gone through a dozen years of harsh media blacklisting and then suddenly become the most prominent and visible academic expert in the world, you’d be pretty happy as well.

    And here’s a paragraph from one of my articles a month ago:

    Such massive global attention finally forced our media to take notice, and the New Yorker solicited an interview with Mearsheimer, allowing him to explain to his disbelieving questioner that American actions had clearly provoked the conflict. A couple of years earlier, that same interviewer had ridiculed Prof. Cohen for doubting the reality of Russiagate, but this time he seemed much more respectful, perhaps because the balance of media power was now reversed; his magazine’s 1.2 million subscriber-base was dwarfed by the global audience listening to the views of his subject.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/

  228. @Wokechoke
    @songbird

    Well, Harold was a Danish Halfling. The Huscarls, his bodyguard were more often that not Danes. A lot of Pork, herring and Salmon. No Potato Pizza yet. Also William the Conqueror was an itinerant child dodging assassins every day of his young life.

    We are talking about the Heptarchy kings rather than the Canute (Dane) Hairfoot (Dane) Edward (Anglo Norman) and Harold (grandson of a Danish King maternal side).

    The Byzantine Emperors ate leafy greens, onions, goat cheese and olives...and often tended to wash the meals and prepare the meals for themselves. Poisoning was a real issue in the Dark Ages. Alfred the Great had several older brothers who dropped dead in weird ways. I can see how they might lay off heavy eating.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold’s remains.

    Don’t know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes, but, if so, then I’m willing to roll the dice, and call him “King Harold.” Especially, if it means that the Windsors can be transitioned to Africa ahead of schedule.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold’s remains....Don’t know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes,
     
    A bit remindful of something they 'dug up' in 1980 or so. :-)

    It was the astonishingly well preserved body of Anthony de Lucy, the 3rd Baron Lucy, an Anglo-Norman who died in 1368 and had apparently been killed on crusade at New Kaunas in present day Lithuania, and had been found in St Bees, Cumbria. England.

    This guy's body upon discovery still had pink skin and liquefied blood. This was someone who had been a teenager at the time of the Black Death.

    It would be almost like digging up ancient Roman ruins, with weather worn statuary, and then finding an almost perfectly preserved Roman body which had been buried at the site.

    Weird in a way, but at the same time linking us directly 'in the flesh' so to speak to what in a certain sense was in reality not all that long ago, a blink of an eye...


    The coffin and contents were examined forensically over the following week. The body was reported to exhibit pink skin and visible irises immediately after being exhumed. An autopsy performed on the body shortly after its discovery indicated that the cause of death was most likely a haemothorax caused by a direct blow to the torso.

    Although the body was about 600 years old, his nails, skin and stomach contents were found to be in near-perfect condition. The lead sheet in which the body was wrapped excluded moisture whilst the pine pitch coating of the shroud excluded air.
     


    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2L-8rAiK_AY/WmddRGCnP9I/AAAAAAABAy4/29UT8KlsMTI3HteGhW9DuTPMGtNLjxrkQCLcBGAs/s1600/bees-5.png

    https://thelincolnite.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/StBeesManFace.jpg

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/St_Bees_priory_effigies.JPG/800px-St_Bees_priory_effigies.JPG

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Bees_Man

    https://www.stbees.org.uk/home/village/st-bees-man/john-todd/

  229. @Yevardian
    @silviosilver

    @Dmitri


    “idiosyncratic” accent
     
    Well this is curious, Dmitri seems to be implying AK's has an idiosyncratic accent in Russian, if I'm not mistaken. I personally can't judge, Russian is my fourth or fifth language and I'm hardly native-level for picking up accents, if they're not super obvious like central asians or most caucasians. But certainly even Gerard, hardly an 'eager American' noticed his thick accent in English immediately. Whatever, it doesn't really matter, just curious.

    On another note, notice how older Russians and ex-sovokos all learned a form of RP decades out of date even when they learned it in the 70s and 80s? I can't say I dislike it, but I definitely can't listen to it without smirking.
    Reminds me of another thing, I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn't learn their parents' mother tongues either.

    On an unrelated note, this week I sped-read in 1-2 days through Peter Zeihan's (never heard of him until utu posted some provocatively titled video) most recent book, Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World .
    I suppose it's about what I expected, for better and (mostly) worse. It genuinely does contain a fair amount of very interesting speculation, but its written in the same style as the man's talks, excessively colloquial (for the subject) and clearly aimed at average political science undergraduates, or retiring boomers who watched their fill of D-Day documentaries and consider it an real achievement to read 2-4 books a year. Definitely his book was extremely short on precise details and especially names, particularly foreign ones that might make his proudly monoglot American audience's head hurt.

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don't pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can't really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.

    In general I didn't find that much that I found really objectionable, though his chapter on Russia in particular was peppered with minor errors (calling Chechens a 'Turkic' people, etc) and old Russophobic canards about only a 1/3rd of Tsarist soldiers in WW1 being issued with rifles, etc. In fact his level of barely contained glee on forecasting Russia's disastrous future made me understand people like Karlin a lot more, I have no doubt he represents establishment views in this respect.

    Although to his credit, I can't call him the Unz-dot-com equivalent of 'Nazi' either, as he quite bluntly described Israel as evolving into an apartheid state, much worse than anything that existed in South Africa. He also implied that following American global withdrawal, Israel would almost certainly commit major atrocities, but in the new geopolitical environment, nobody would really care.

    He follows his mentor Friedman somewhat in still predicting Japan as a regional hegemon (at least stopping short of war with the US, lol), if only because other states will look to it as a natural leader following what he considers China's violent collapse. Seemed pretty doubtful to me.

    Probably his best chapters were on Germany and the Middle-East (which he admitted he took a lot of assistance on.. at least, I found it a lot more realistic than his predictions for Asia or Russia). He described in a world where the US had largely washed its hands of the region, it would rely on Iran 'to build relationships with other countries in the region' and defer to Saudi Arabia 'as a goon squad you go to smash things up' or something along those lines. He didn't make this comparison, but I immediately thought that mirror quite closely America's historic relations with Egypt and Israel, respectively.

    He also practically didn't mention Africa whatsoever, although indirectly he basically forecasted via comments on the Middle-East that that continent would suffer a mass-famine unprecedented in history. Reminded me of Houellebecq's 'optimistic' predictions for France in La carte et le territoire.

    Would I recommend it? Well, it's better light-reading than whatever Shamir, rightoid garbage like Mark Stein, or some MSM hack is coming out with nowdays, you can pirate it from libgen easily enough. Just keep in mind that although the writing style might insult your intelligence, there are interesting takes from it, but unforunately, it lists practically no references.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mikel, @utu, @Ron Unz

    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan…He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works.

    He sounds like a total lunatic to me. I’ve been closely following China for nearly 45 years and all my longer term predictions have been correct, and it’s even exceeded my most optimistic scenario:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I’ve never heard of him and why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/
     

    I've read all your 'American Pravda' articles, don't mistake my post as an endorsement, I'm fully aware the MSM predicts China's imminent collapse as often as Peter Schiff and PCR predict America's economic meltdown; you're not talking to WizardofOz here. Although I do think China has finally run into some very serious problems going ahead from now.

    I was simply curious if this Zeihan's books were any more substantive than his talks. Besides, reading such stuff can be amusing in small doses, you've definitely hosted a fair range of lunatics on your website yourself. That, and I've barely read anything that wasn't extremely hostile to the current American order in probably years. I don't know if you're aware, but the MSM in the Antipodes is quite exceptionally bad, one of the most monopolised media landscapes of any western country.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ron Unz


    why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?
     
    I don't know if this is a good reason, but the reason he gets attention is he is very good at power point (one of the best I have ever seen) and he kills it at the top serious presentations they get at Davos and Bilderberg and Bohemian Grove.

    Has he done Burning Man? I bet he has done Burning Man.

    Being good with power point is roughly as impressive to most people as being good at playing counterstrike. He probably got a varsity letter in curling.
  230. @Thulean Friend

    Though, in all seriousness, I do think that most people would be surprised by how little meat most of their ancestors ate. Typical peasant in 1800s Ireland only ate meat once (on Easter) or twice a year.

    Recently, I was wondering how much butter they ate.

    I find it quite interesting that based on archaeogenetics, polygenic scores predicting coronary artery/heart disease have increased. Makes me think that it wasn’t a lot, but their bodies were getting better at sucking up all the cholesterol, to make the best use of it.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  231. Don’t say things that are obviously true, and other conference survival tips

    Pretty good career advice while also being funny at the same time. I would just add, the real purpose of most conferences is social networking and not listening to the presentations for the most part.

  232. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Dmitry

    Sun is a loose analogy to Karlin, I should give you more context. Sun Yat-sen is considered the founding father of both PRC and ROC-Taiwan for leading the Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Manchu Qing Dynasty. He came from a marginal Han region and spoke a dialect unintelligible to Mandarin speakers-- Cantonese.

    Cantonese tend to be darker, smaller, beardless and there is mutual discrimination between northerners and southerners, former Mongol commenter AltanBakshi use to say that southern Chinese are gay. But Sun nevertheless successfully led Han Chinese overthrow of Manchus.

    https://i.postimg.cc/dVtm4bd4/Sun-Yat-Sen-in-Japan-1900.png
    Sun (right) in Tokyo with his Japanese friends. Sun was patronized by the Japanese in leading Han nationalism against Manchus but Sun later turned around and said Manchuria and Mongolia belonged to China too, and furthermore cooperated with the Soviets, which the Japanese considered as betrayal.

    So Sun transformed from a Han nationalist -- to a ROC nationalist* that claims all former Qing territory, Manchuria/Mongolia/Xinjiang/Tibet.

    Whereas Karlin I think has only ever claimed as a RusFed nationalist (and not a Russian nationalist), which can include Caucasoids like him and Mongoloids like AltanBakshi.

    *ROC nationalism is basically congruent with PRC nationalism. Han nationalism 皇汉 huanghan "Imperial Han" is discouraged by the PRC because its considered chauvinistic against minorities and puts PRC's territorial claims to question; only PRC nationalism is acceptable.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    As always you post interesting information, although I’m still not how relevant can be the relation of a founder of Taiwan and an internet bloghost.

    Maybe you wanted to compare Sun Yat-sen to a politician in Russia or USSR? Stalin?

    I guess the relation of nationalities in Russia had been unusual, partly because there is a very multinational country, but with high levels of deracination and destruction of traditional culture. Therefore, what really exists of national difference of some nationalities, is often just peoples’ racial appearance.

    In Ufa, Russians and Bashkirs, are almost culturally the same, but the national difference even in such a multiracial city, is reduced to some different family names and the racial appearances.

    At the same time, there had been a lot of restriction of internal movement in Soviet times, so in many cities there could be very high local racial homogeneity, until the 2000s. Even in 1990s, in school photos, in Russian areas, all people in a school can have slavic appearance, without a single strange or foreign face. So, the older generation of people, from non-multiracial cities, who can remember times before the 2000s, can remember local homogeneity, can have a lot of provincialism in relation to this topic.

    But this emphasis about peoples’ racial appearance in the Russian culture is not like racism, as could be seen in Western colonial societies. It’s rather how people noticed nationalities in those multinational areas and doesn’t imply a sense of colonial power relation (every nationality is equally colonized by the rulers and the majority nationality is not necessarily at the top).

  233. @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan...He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works.
     
    He sounds like a total lunatic to me. I've been closely following China for nearly 45 years and all my longer term predictions have been correct, and it's even exceeded my most optimistic scenario:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I've never heard of him and why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Emil Nikola Richard

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I’ve read all your ‘American Pravda’ articles, don’t mistake my post as an endorsement, I’m fully aware the MSM predicts China’s imminent collapse as often as Peter Schiff and PCR predict America’s economic meltdown; you’re not talking to WizardofOz here. Although I do think China has finally run into some very serious problems going ahead from now.

    I was simply curious if this Zeihan’s books were any more substantive than his talks. Besides, reading such stuff can be amusing in small doses, you’ve definitely hosted a fair range of lunatics on your website yourself. That, and I’ve barely read anything that wasn’t extremely hostile to the current American order in probably years. I don’t know if you’re aware, but the MSM in the Antipodes is quite exceptionally bad, one of the most monopolised media landscapes of any western country.

  234. From the head of this new anti-disinformation board:

    • LOL: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    LOL

    Since they are pivoting the narrative from goal is Ukraine victory to goal is damage Russia is there a damage Russia flag icon? Like a Russia flag with the NO red diagonal circle bar through it?

    Replies: @songbird

  235. colonelcassad.livejournal.com – Yandex translation with comment

    “Yarosh’s business card”.
    A regular reminder of the Geneva Convention before the expected capture.
    However, the character did not need a reminder, since he did not live to be captured.
    (Photos – Right Sector ID card of platoon commander Dmytro Melikhov. It shows his code name as “Fashyst”)

  236. The apparatchiks of the American regime:

    Btw, some claim she’s partially Jewish. Seems unclear.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Having watched her speak for a few minutes, I think I can perceive a sphingolipid mutation.

    Not only is she a fast talker, but her head is very motile, and her eyes are very blinky. Her brain is evidently more excitatory than the standard, both to her benefit and detriment.

    Not only is she a Russia-gater, but she seems to think the Russkies pulled Brexit off.

  237. Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin’s not in a hurry.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Thulean Friend

    How do you explain this reversal of the rubles predicted value?

    , @sudden death
    @Thulean Friend


    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion
     
    Is there any data about international FX rouble trade volume available in comparison before and after Feb 24? IIRC inner market official FX trades were banned for ordinary RF citizens, so volume just disappeared at home, except black markets.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @A123
    @Thulean Friend


    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin’s not in a hurry.
     
    Certainly the short-term window is on Putin's side.

    The failure of JCPOA2 will keep Iran contained as a potential threat to Russian exports. This leaves too many countries needing Russian hydrocarbons. Europe (over EU has objections) has openly declared for Russian gas. Most notably entire countries Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece. However, even in the theoretical sanctions countries, Europe business are undermining the deranged, anti-European EU sanctions plan.
    ___

    However, it is not 100% Putin's way. The long-term situation is much dicier.

    BalticPipe 1 will complete on time, before winter this year. While smaller than NS2 it will take pressure off Poland. Decisions need to be made on routing for Baltic2, but none of them seem technically complex. Expect a rapid build, ~2-3 years.

    EastMed is proceeding despite Not-The-President Biden's feeble gibbering against it. This project has a ~5 year time frame.
    ___

    The hard questions to predict are:

    -- How long will the fading U.S. regime continue to support Ukraine?
    -- And, how long will it take for Ukraine to obtain "Agreement Capable" leadership?

    Right now the Ukie Maximalists have the upper hand in their domestic situation. It will take a stunning defeat, such as a failed offensive trying to retake Mariupol, before options for a negotiated peace reappear.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Pixo
    @Thulean Friend

    There’s no free market in rubles, the rate is whatever the government says.

    Russia’s trade surplus is obviously supportive of the ruble, and it is growing. But that’s just one factor.

    A much bigger one is demand for ruble denominated assets. And that has fallen off a cliff. No rational foreigner would want to invest in Russia given the asset seizures and capital controls. Western companies that were bullish on Russia and invested there all have been badly burned.

    The idea that Russian wealth will be repatriated because of the Western seizures if oligarch wealth is unproved and seems unlikely. The safe place for corrupt Russian money, is no longer London, Sardinia, and Bel Air. There are other spots like the UAE, Switzerland, Israel, Cyprus, and possibly SE Asia and Latin America. Those all seem like better bets that staying rich in Russia and on Putin’s good side, and his successors.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  238. S says:
    @songbird
    @Wokechoke

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold's remains.

    Don't know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes, but, if so, then I'm willing to roll the dice, and call him "King Harold." Especially, if it means that the Windsors can be transitioned to Africa ahead of schedule.

    Replies: @S

    In Chichester, there is a headless skeleton with only half a leg buried in a sarcophagus that some think is Harold’s remains….Don’t know if enough DNA can be recovered for cloning purposes,

    A bit remindful of something they ‘dug up’ in 1980 or so. 🙂

    It was the astonishingly well preserved body of Anthony de Lucy, the 3rd Baron Lucy, an Anglo-Norman who died in 1368 and had apparently been killed on crusade at New Kaunas in present day Lithuania, and had been found in St Bees, Cumbria. England.

    This guy’s body upon discovery still had pink skin and liquefied blood. This was someone who had been a teenager at the time of the Black Death.

    It would be almost like digging up ancient Roman ruins, with weather worn statuary, and then finding an almost perfectly preserved Roman body which had been buried at the site.

    Weird in a way, but at the same time linking us directly ‘in the flesh’ so to speak to what in a certain sense was in reality not all that long ago, a blink of an eye…

    The coffin and contents were examined forensically over the following week. The body was reported to exhibit pink skin and visible irises immediately after being exhumed. An autopsy performed on the body shortly after its discovery indicated that the cause of death was most likely a haemothorax caused by a direct blow to the torso.

    Although the body was about 600 years old, his nails, skin and stomach contents were found to be in near-perfect condition. The lead sheet in which the body was wrapped excluded moisture whilst the pine pitch coating of the shroud excluded air.

    • Thanks: songbird
  239. @Thulean Friend
    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    https://i.imgur.com/DjY905B.png

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin's not in a hurry.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @A123, @Pixo

    How do you explain this reversal of the rubles predicted value?

  240. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    Karlin is agreeing with Karlin. Interesting. This is a faux pas that would get your angst going in the past in a big way.

    “Reaching for new heights” or “How low can the high fall”?

    (just a small jab Anatoly, it’s good to see that you’re actually still human, and not part android). 🙂

  241. @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    Maybe he's not saying how it would turn out, but how it should turn out. Not prediction, but advice for the regime change team working on China. Same with Gordon Chang.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It can’t get any clearer than this:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=l6wkDJhFSCE

    This kind of naysayers wish to turn China into a large Russia, and they will get it if Xi jumps the gun.

  242. @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan...He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works.
     
    He sounds like a total lunatic to me. I've been closely following China for nearly 45 years and all my longer term predictions have been correct, and it's even exceeded my most optimistic scenario:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    I've never heard of him and why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Emil Nikola Richard

    why should I or anyone else pay any attention to what he says?

    I don’t know if this is a good reason, but the reason he gets attention is he is very good at power point (one of the best I have ever seen) and he kills it at the top serious presentations they get at Davos and Bilderberg and Bohemian Grove.

    Has he done Burning Man? I bet he has done Burning Man.

    Being good with power point is roughly as impressive to most people as being good at playing counterstrike. He probably got a varsity letter in curling.

  243. @German_reader
    From the head of this new anti-disinformation board:
    https://twitter.com/wiczipedia/status/1484906527546912782

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    LOL

    Since they are pivoting the narrative from goal is Ukraine victory to goal is damage Russia is there a damage Russia flag icon? Like a Russia flag with the NO red diagonal circle bar through it?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikel

  244. @Thulean Friend
    The apparatchiks of the American regime:

    https://i.imgur.com/jzu1bHK.png

    Btw, some claim she's partially Jewish. Seems unclear.

    Replies: @songbird

    Having watched her speak for a few minutes, I think I can perceive a sphingolipid mutation.

    Not only is she a fast talker, but her head is very motile, and her eyes are very blinky. Her brain is evidently more excitatory than the standard, both to her benefit and detriment.

    Not only is she a Russia-gater, but she seems to think the Russkies pulled Brexit off.

  245. I hope Musk brings Trump back.

    Whatever their shortfalls, I am a fan of both their trollings, and, right now, I think that Musk might be risking some psychotic response by being the popular crux of it all. IMO, he needs Trump to take some of the heat off him, until the other unbannings can have some effect.

  246. @AP
    @Beckow


    That is a non sequitur because none of the basic parameters are similar enough: there are many more Russians in Ukraine (in that region they are a qualified majority)
     
    In Kharkiv oblast the Russian population is 25% - not a majority.

    And of course not many of those want their Ukrainian homeland to be annexed by Russia. Karlin posted poll results awhile ago - depending on oblast, in eastern Ukraine the percentage wishing for annexation varied from 5% to 10%.

    Then all Russia wanted and asked for was a buffer that would move the Finnish army a few dozen kms from St. Petersburg
     
    "The Soviet delegation demanded that the border between the USSR and Finland on the Karelian Isthmus be moved westward to a point only 30 km (19 mi) east of Viipuri (Russian: Vyborg) and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus. Likewise, the delegation demanded the cession of islands in the Gulf of Finland as well as Rybachy Peninsula (Finnish: Kalastajasaarento). The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there. "

    Soviets formed a puppet government right away when the war started.

    Replies: @Beckow

    border between be moved westward to a point 19 east of Vyborg and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus.

    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    Russia was pushy because everybody knew that a war was coming and that Finland was potentially allied with Germany – as turned out to be true. Finland would be better off if they agreed to the demand. But as today, rationality was thrown out and people died.

    I also think that Germany’s demand in August 1939 for a “corridor” to link East Prussia with Danzig was reasonable. As were previously their demands for protecting German minorities. In hindsight, it is easy to demonize Germans – but at that time those demands should had been taken seriously. It is possible that more reasonable parts of the German elite would act against the Nazis and some of the bloody carnage of WWII would be avoided.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.
     
    The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there.

    This is only 86 miles from Helsinki. It is west of Helsinki, very far from the Soviet border.

    :::::::::::::::::

    BTW I heard about the Polish tanks and the process of their procurement, at a bar in Poland a couple weeks ago. I didn't publicly say what was told to me until it became widely known now, nor will I say other things I heard until they become widely known (if they do). But it was nice to get confirmation that it wasn't all just drunken empty boasting.

    Replies: @Beckow, @LatW

  247. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    LOL

    Since they are pivoting the narrative from goal is Ukraine victory to goal is damage Russia is there a damage Russia flag icon? Like a Russia flag with the NO red diagonal circle bar through it?

    Replies: @songbird

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    You see it won't come down even if the entire Ukraine is annexed to Russia, because there will be a government-in-exile. But the Belarussian flag emoji is the national one, not the White-Red-White one.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Mikel
    @songbird


    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.
     
    Those emojis are here to stay for a long time. What I don't understand is why it's taking so long for Che Zelensky T-shirts and posters to become popularized. Every generation needs a pop icon and if murderer Che Guevara filled the slot in the past there's no reason for WW3-promoter Zelensky not to replace him. There's a lot of money to be made too.

    Replies: @songbird, @S

  248. @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    The Finns in a sense caused themselves much trouble. Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.

    That is the only conclusion one can make. Finns will deny it, but what happened speaks for itself: Finland joined Nazis in WWII in their attack on Russia.

    Today the unwillingness to take seriously the potential security threats to Russia on its border also shows the “background” – the unstated goals. It is easy to call Russia paranoid – all security concerns can be called paranoid – but as before WWII the logic of self-protection requires that one can’t trust the enemy. US wouldn’t trust China, Russia or Iran in Quebec, same with UK and Ireland. Why would it be different for Russia?

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    During the Cold War I think we can guess what would have happened if Mexico had had a change of government after Maidin-like events and the new government decided to write into the constitution that it would aspire to join the Warsaw Pact.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  249. @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikel

    You see it won’t come down even if the entire Ukraine is annexed to Russia, because there will be a government-in-exile. But the Belarussian flag emoji is the national one, not the White-Red-White one.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    So what are Ukrainian nationalists to do? Abandon their flag because it looks like an equals sign that all the progressives have seized? Or try to ride the signaling wave somehow?
    ________
    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they'll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed. It would be funny if US stopped exports to control domestic prices.

    If they are crazy enough to do an energy embargo, that should raise the nuclear specter significantly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

  250. @Thulean Friend
    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    https://i.imgur.com/DjY905B.png

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin's not in a hurry.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @A123, @Pixo

    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion

    Is there any data about international FX rouble trade volume available in comparison before and after Feb 24? IIRC inner market official FX trades were banned for ordinary RF citizens, so volume just disappeared at home, except black markets.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @sudden death

    The volume is down. To crush a currency you need to sell it, but West liquidated rubles in February and now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains. And repatriation by oligarchs forced to sell or lose Western assets.

    The ruble is higher than a year ago and if nothing changes it will continue. If the West blocks Russian exports, inflation will explode more. It is a Mexican standoff.

    China also prevents its citizens from trading yuan for dollars. Many countries do that, it leads to a black market but the volumes are minuscule, it is just noise.

    Replies: @sudden death

  251. • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @German_reader

    The Soviets (and indeed Cold War era US) had leaders that has humanity's collective future in mind. This was why the Cuban Missile Crisis or the 1983 incident didn't ended up terminating the Cold War. Not Putin or the main run of Washington DC politico at the moment.

    https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF

    In Cold War nuclear war scenarios USSR would come out with a lower proportion of demographic loss than the US after a full-scale nuclear exchange. We probably won't get to see if S is proven right or not.

    Replies: @Beckow

  252. A123 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend
    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    https://i.imgur.com/DjY905B.png

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin's not in a hurry.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @A123, @Pixo

    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin’s not in a hurry.

    Certainly the short-term window is on Putin’s side.

    The failure of JCPOA2 will keep Iran contained as a potential threat to Russian exports. This leaves too many countries needing Russian hydrocarbons. Europe (over EU has objections) has openly declared for Russian gas. Most notably entire countries Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece. However, even in the theoretical sanctions countries, Europe business are undermining the deranged, anti-European EU sanctions plan.
    ___

    However, it is not 100% Putin’s way. The long-term situation is much dicier.

    BalticPipe 1 will complete on time, before winter this year. While smaller than NS2 it will take pressure off Poland. Decisions need to be made on routing for Baltic2, but none of them seem technically complex. Expect a rapid build, ~2-3 years.

    EastMed is proceeding despite Not-The-President Biden’s feeble gibbering against it. This project has a ~5 year time frame.
    ___

    The hard questions to predict are:

    — How long will the fading U.S. regime continue to support Ukraine?
    — And, how long will it take for Ukraine to obtain “Agreement Capable” leadership?

    Right now the Ukie Maximalists have the upper hand in their domestic situation. It will take a stunning defeat, such as a failed offensive trying to retake Mariupol, before options for a negotiated peace reappear.

    PEACE 😇

  253. @German_reader
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-us-show-it-can-win-a-nuclear-war-russia-putin-ukraine-nato-sarmat-missile-testing-warning-11651067733

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    The Soviets (and indeed Cold War era US) had leaders that has humanity’s collective future in mind. This was why the Cuban Missile Crisis or the 1983 incident didn’t ended up terminating the Cold War. Not Putin or the main run of Washington DC politico at the moment.

    https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF

    In Cold War nuclear war scenarios USSR would come out with a lower proportion of demographic loss than the US after a full-scale nuclear exchange. We probably won’t get to see if S is proven right or not.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Yellowface Anon

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, primarily Europe. The war would reset civilization - Davos people get their wish - and the West has much further to fall. Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    It is a very bad scenario. Let's not forget that the war in Ukraine started in the context of the more dramatic Russian security demands from December. Even if Ukraine is settled, this can go on. We are still at the beginning.

    Replies: @A123

  254. @sudden death
    @Thulean Friend


    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion
     
    Is there any data about international FX rouble trade volume available in comparison before and after Feb 24? IIRC inner market official FX trades were banned for ordinary RF citizens, so volume just disappeared at home, except black markets.

    Replies: @Beckow

    The volume is down. To crush a currency you need to sell it, but West liquidated rubles in February and now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains. And repatriation by oligarchs forced to sell or lose Western assets.

    The ruble is higher than a year ago and if nothing changes it will continue. If the West blocks Russian exports, inflation will explode more. It is a Mexican standoff.

    China also prevents its citizens from trading yuan for dollars. Many countries do that, it leads to a black market but the volumes are minuscule, it is just noise.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Beckow


    ....now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains.
     
    Where from is news about oil&payment scheme changes? As I said earlier, gas payment scheming essentially changed nothing, price in euros remain the same as were prior, gas buyers make payments in euros too, without any prior ruble purchases:



    29.04.2022 official Lavrov:

    В.В.Путин подписал указ, согласно которому с этого момента нужно будет платить не «Газпрому» на его счета в западных банках, а платить «Газпром-банку» по-прежнему в долларах и евро. Ничего не изменится. Та же сумма в иностранной валюте, которая оговорена в контракте. И затем в «Газпром-банке» евро и доллары будут переведены на рублевый счет.


    Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which, from now on, it will be necessary to pay not to Gazprom to its accounts in Western banks, but to pay Gazprom-Bank, as before, in dollars and euros. Nothing will change. The same amount in foreign currency, which is stipulated in the contract. And then in "Gazprom-bank" euros and dollars will be transferred to the ruble account.
     

    Replies: @sudden death

  255. @Yellowface Anon
    @German_reader

    The Soviets (and indeed Cold War era US) had leaders that has humanity's collective future in mind. This was why the Cuban Missile Crisis or the 1983 incident didn't ended up terminating the Cold War. Not Putin or the main run of Washington DC politico at the moment.

    https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1979/7906/7906.PDF

    In Cold War nuclear war scenarios USSR would come out with a lower proportion of demographic loss than the US after a full-scale nuclear exchange. We probably won't get to see if S is proven right or not.

    Replies: @Beckow

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, primarily Europe. The war would reset civilization – Davos people get their wish – and the West has much further to fall. Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    It is a very bad scenario. Let’s not forget that the war in Ukraine started in the context of the more dramatic Russian security demands from December. Even if Ukraine is settled, this can go on. We are still at the beginning.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow


    Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.
     
    Large parts of America are already dysfunctional.

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, ...
     
    Blue Cities !
        Blue States !!
           Blue Cities in Blue States !!!

    Davos people get their wish
     
    Is it too late for MAGA to start using a Phoenix rather than a Lion?

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://twt-thumbs.washtimes.com/media/image/2017/08/30/8_302017_b4-guld-phoenix-ris8201_c0-180-866-684_s885x516.jpg?0364a45a1256f9694b52c67e423ff6623c0a8a2c

    Replies: @Beckow

  256. A123 says: • Website

    I need to create a proper 😁 Humor round up 😂. But many of the Twitter / Ministry of Truth related items are so good, they have to be shared immediately.

    Does anyone think the new Ministry announcement and Musk’s take over of Twitter are unrelated?????

    PEACE 😇

     

    • LOL: Pat Kittle
  257. A123 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @Yellowface Anon

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, primarily Europe. The war would reset civilization - Davos people get their wish - and the West has much further to fall. Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    It is a very bad scenario. Let's not forget that the war in Ukraine started in the context of the more dramatic Russian security demands from December. Even if Ukraine is settled, this can go on. We are still at the beginning.

    Replies: @A123

    Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.

    Large parts of America are already dysfunctional.

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, …

    Blue Cities !
        Blue States !!
           Blue Cities in Blue States !!!

    Davos people get their wish

    Is it too late for MAGA to start using a Phoenix rather than a Lion?

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @A123

    There are levels of dysfunction. You are right, since the ruling liberalism is concentrated everywhere in the biggest cities, a nuclear war would - among other things - move the political spectrum dramatically to the conservative side. Now, there is a thought...

  258. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    You see it won't come down even if the entire Ukraine is annexed to Russia, because there will be a government-in-exile. But the Belarussian flag emoji is the national one, not the White-Red-White one.

    Replies: @songbird

    So what are Ukrainian nationalists to do? Abandon their flag because it looks like an equals sign that all the progressives have seized? Or try to ride the signaling wave somehow?
    ________
    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed. It would be funny if US stopped exports to control domestic prices.

    If they are crazy enough to do an energy embargo, that should raise the nuclear specter significantly.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird

    Russia might just cut off deliveries herself because of the weapons shipments. I'd interpret their recent actions against Poland and Bulgaria in that regard as a warning, especially to Germany.
    Anyway, imo this is going to end badly. Putin may well not be quite right in the head anymore (I honestly dread what he's going to proclaim on 9 May), and the West is also steadily driven towards more escalatory measures, driven along by Russian weakness (plus war crimes) and a hysterically bellicose mob on Twitter and in the media. I think there's a significant chance the world as we know it is going to end in the next few months, for absolutely idiotic reasons.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    , @A123
    @songbird


    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed.
     
    Hungary will be 100% fine.

    Hungary has agreed with Russia on all the conditions for a new long-term gas supply deal, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. The agreement is for 15 years and gas flows running to Hungary will bypass Ukraine.

    Hungary’s 1995 supply deal with Russia is set to expire soon thus Budapest decided to extend the agreement. ... Hungary will buy 4.5 bcm of gas per year while this amount is set to decrease over the next five years.

    Gazprom would ship 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Hungary annually, via two routes: 3.5 billion cubic meters via Serbia (TurkStream) and 1 billion cubic meters via Austria
     
    The Horgoš, Serbia/Hungary interconnection is fairly new. I was quite surprised at the routing via Turkey when the contract was announced.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://warsawinstitute.org/hungary-russia-agree-new-gas-contract/

    Replies: @songbird

  259. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    So what are Ukrainian nationalists to do? Abandon their flag because it looks like an equals sign that all the progressives have seized? Or try to ride the signaling wave somehow?
    ________
    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they'll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed. It would be funny if US stopped exports to control domestic prices.

    If they are crazy enough to do an energy embargo, that should raise the nuclear specter significantly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

    Russia might just cut off deliveries herself because of the weapons shipments. I’d interpret their recent actions against Poland and Bulgaria in that regard as a warning, especially to Germany.
    Anyway, imo this is going to end badly. Putin may well not be quite right in the head anymore (I honestly dread what he’s going to proclaim on 9 May), and the West is also steadily driven towards more escalatory measures, driven along by Russian weakness (plus war crimes) and a hysterically bellicose mob on Twitter and in the media. I think there’s a significant chance the world as we know it is going to end in the next few months, for absolutely idiotic reasons.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    Order out of chaos baby.

    https://wallpapers.com/images/high/shrek-sonic-skeleton-and-alien-in-black-meme-zwqnefed16o2p93i.jpg

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    Not sure with the Russian self-embargo. If output drops too much, it could have a negative impact on production. Previous production peak was during Soviet times, and that became undone when everything started to collapse, and it took years and years, and a lot of investment, before they were able to bring it back up again and match the same output.

    But OTOH, it seems like there has been a lot of provocation against Russia. I mean, when you are providing the support that the US is, that is basically like being at war. And it seems like they haven't hit back yet. Not that I expect a declaration of war, but a lot of stupid people think that all this signaling is free - that there won't be negative consequences to it.

    But I don't think that is how human psychology works. I only wonder about the form it will take. Maybe, they will start sinking those supply ships. Maybe, they'll start hitting SpaceX and Tesla factories because Starlink has probably been used for attacks in Russia.

    The US has never been more susceptible to outside attacks and destabilization, but the Pinkerians don't think that way.

    Replies: @German_reader

  260. @German_reader
    @songbird

    Russia might just cut off deliveries herself because of the weapons shipments. I'd interpret their recent actions against Poland and Bulgaria in that regard as a warning, especially to Germany.
    Anyway, imo this is going to end badly. Putin may well not be quite right in the head anymore (I honestly dread what he's going to proclaim on 9 May), and the West is also steadily driven towards more escalatory measures, driven along by Russian weakness (plus war crimes) and a hysterically bellicose mob on Twitter and in the media. I think there's a significant chance the world as we know it is going to end in the next few months, for absolutely idiotic reasons.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    Order out of chaos baby.

  261. @songbird
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    When you get down to it, Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    I can't see Russia even contemplating giving them back, unless Japan kicks out American troops. Even then, hard to see a value proposition where they would benefit from it.

    Doesn't seem to be a strategic replacement for them, and that is not even counting the potential natural resources. IMO, Japan missed its best opportunity to work a deal, which was the Yeltsin years.

    Replies: @216, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    My general point is I don’t think Russia has ever been as isolated in its entire history. China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality. With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China. If anything at this point Russo-Japanese rapprochement isn’t bad for China.

    Also it might let Olaf go easier on those Waffenlieferungen.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-japan-seek-deeper-ties-during-scholz-visit/a-61608621

    Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    Why exactly? By the way Japanese-American actor Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa of Rising Sun, converted to Orthodoxy and became a Russian citizen, he has Russian movie here Confession of A Samurai,

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality.
     
    I personally favour a more balanced EU foreign policy re: China, but I also know that the EU is not a subject in international geopolitics. It is an object - controlled by the US.

    So your wish is essentially impossible given who's actually in the driver's seat. The Russians understand this, yet China seemingly belabours under the delusion that this reality can be wished away.


    With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.
     

    The "Pepe Escobar worldview" has taken a massive beating.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China.
     
    Other than cheap energy? But yes, you're right. Even arms shipments are not really relevant anymore as China has caught up in all almost all areas and even surpassed Russia in some (e.g. avionics electronics).

    Beijing clearly doesn't want Putin's regime to fall as chaos would be bad for China's interests but outside of that, why would China stick their neck out? There were always limits to how far China would want to support Russia. This may offend vatniks but it is the simple truth.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @songbird
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    It's about Russia's Pacific fleet.

    Japan can control the egress of its own navy because it has both a Pacific-facing coast, as well as since it controls a longitudinal chain of islands, in temperate waters that don't freeze, so it controls all the passage ways.

    In Russia's case, it's in more northern latitudes, so ice is a significant problem. Passage between the southern Kurils is ice-free or mostly ice-free. (And they can be defended with anti-ship missiles) Not true of the northern ones. Maybe, they could proceed along the coast of Asia southward, but the US controls all the chokepoints.

    I can't really think of an alternative, from a military standpoint.

    It's fun to think about possible deals though. Seems to me that from a Japanese perspective, it is kind of a national touchstone, so that is pretty valuable, and maybe they could turn it to their advantage somehow.

    Like, it is a fantastic scenario, but what if Russia demanded that Japan increase its TFR to replacement. (which would be Japan benefiting, but that could be a way to help organize it as a national goal - they would have to give something valuable back though.)

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  262. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird

    My general point is I don't think Russia has ever been as isolated in its entire history. China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality. With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn't have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there's not much Russia can do for China. If anything at this point Russo-Japanese rapprochement isn't bad for China.

    Also it might let Olaf go easier on those Waffenlieferungen.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-japan-seek-deeper-ties-during-scholz-visit/a-61608621

    Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    Why exactly? By the way Japanese-American actor Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa of Rising Sun, converted to Orthodoxy and became a Russian citizen, he has Russian movie here Confession of A Samurai,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFcBmoD7kk

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird

    China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality.

    I personally favour a more balanced EU foreign policy re: China, but I also know that the EU is not a subject in international geopolitics. It is an object – controlled by the US.

    So your wish is essentially impossible given who’s actually in the driver’s seat. The Russians understand this, yet China seemingly belabours under the delusion that this reality can be wished away.

    With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The “Pepe Escobar worldview” has taken a massive beating.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China.

    Other than cheap energy? But yes, you’re right. Even arms shipments are not really relevant anymore as China has caught up in all almost all areas and even surpassed Russia in some (e.g. avionics electronics).

    Beijing clearly doesn’t want Putin’s regime to fall as chaos would be bad for China’s interests but outside of that, why would China stick their neck out? There were always limits to how far China would want to support Russia. This may offend vatniks but it is the simple truth.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thulean Friend

    controlled by the US
    Exactly, it's been very well articulated by PRC that it stakes in a pro-EU position and seeks for Europe to upgrade from a "chess piece" to "chess player".

    What is far less well articulated is that PRC is far more reluctant to let Japan to also upgrade to a "chess player". But this is consequential as you see from Scholz's Japan visit that it is clearly meant as snub towards China.

    All sides are being myopic somewhat:
    - The last time Germany was forced to picked a side between China and Japan was 1938, end of Sino-German cooperation. The economic results were not good because Germany's economy is far more complementary to China's than Japan's.

    (Germany does six times more trade with China than Japan; Japan does eight times more trade with China than Germany)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/japans-top-import-partners/

    - Its good if Germany doesn't feel that it must take a side again, the relationship between China and Japan is not as horrible as it often sounds. The Japan ruling faction of Kishida's position is based on anti-Russia rather than anti-China.

    - The Chinese are seething over the German snub and are trolling about Axis 2.0, but not appreciating that Japan's historical militaristic expansionism was significantly a reaction to Russia/Soviet expansion.

    It isn't that China doesn't want to stick their necks out for Russia. Its that no one does free favors for anyone else in geopolitics, period. In the PRC is remembered fondly the Golden Era of Sino-Soviet friendship in 50's when Soviets provided instrumental help for industrial foundation; but that was not a free favor because it involved massive Chinese casualties in the Korean War, a war instigated by Stalin and Kim.

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about "self-actualization" topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China's pop. can afford to shrink by at least half ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8k6IgTHSy0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5S3YGXQ85Q

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Thulean Friend

  263. @German_reader
    @songbird

    Russia might just cut off deliveries herself because of the weapons shipments. I'd interpret their recent actions against Poland and Bulgaria in that regard as a warning, especially to Germany.
    Anyway, imo this is going to end badly. Putin may well not be quite right in the head anymore (I honestly dread what he's going to proclaim on 9 May), and the West is also steadily driven towards more escalatory measures, driven along by Russian weakness (plus war crimes) and a hysterically bellicose mob on Twitter and in the media. I think there's a significant chance the world as we know it is going to end in the next few months, for absolutely idiotic reasons.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    Not sure with the Russian self-embargo. If output drops too much, it could have a negative impact on production. Previous production peak was during Soviet times, and that became undone when everything started to collapse, and it took years and years, and a lot of investment, before they were able to bring it back up again and match the same output.

    But OTOH, it seems like there has been a lot of provocation against Russia. I mean, when you are providing the support that the US is, that is basically like being at war. And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet. Not that I expect a declaration of war, but a lot of stupid people think that all this signaling is free – that there won’t be negative consequences to it.

    But I don’t think that is how human psychology works. I only wonder about the form it will take. Maybe, they will start sinking those supply ships. Maybe, they’ll start hitting SpaceX and Tesla factories because Starlink has probably been used for attacks in Russia.

    The US has never been more susceptible to outside attacks and destabilization, but the Pinkerians don’t think that way.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird


    And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet.
     
    Well, they've already said that they don't care anymore if their attacks kill Western advisers in Ukraine. And the lack of restraint by Western policy-makers (like the British depute defense minister who said there's no problem if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for attacks within Russia) will probably also lead to reactions.
    But I agree, it's bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don't really seem to get that in Russia's case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back, unlike the one-sided affairs with Iraq, Serbia etc.

    Replies: @AP, @S

  264. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @German_reader

    Not sure with the Russian self-embargo. If output drops too much, it could have a negative impact on production. Previous production peak was during Soviet times, and that became undone when everything started to collapse, and it took years and years, and a lot of investment, before they were able to bring it back up again and match the same output.

    But OTOH, it seems like there has been a lot of provocation against Russia. I mean, when you are providing the support that the US is, that is basically like being at war. And it seems like they haven't hit back yet. Not that I expect a declaration of war, but a lot of stupid people think that all this signaling is free - that there won't be negative consequences to it.

    But I don't think that is how human psychology works. I only wonder about the form it will take. Maybe, they will start sinking those supply ships. Maybe, they'll start hitting SpaceX and Tesla factories because Starlink has probably been used for attacks in Russia.

    The US has never been more susceptible to outside attacks and destabilization, but the Pinkerians don't think that way.

    Replies: @German_reader

    And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet.

    Well, they’ve already said that they don’t care anymore if their attacks kill Western advisers in Ukraine. And the lack of restraint by Western policy-makers (like the British depute defense minister who said there’s no problem if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for attacks within Russia) will probably also lead to reactions.
    But I agree, it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back, unlike the one-sided affairs with Iraq, Serbia etc.

    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia's choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away. There is nothing "provocative" about giving Ukraine weapons with which Ukraine can defend itself against a country that has violated all norms to invade it.

    I hope all of Russia's useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird

    , @S
    @German_reader


    ..it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back..
     
    There's a tremendous amount of hubris in the US at present. You can readily sense it . They are literally and consciously copying the lead up events to WWII in detail, almost cargo cult like, or, paint by numbers, as if that by itself might win a war with Russia. The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they've originally planned.

    Replies: @AP

  265. @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mikel

    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.

    Those emojis are here to stay for a long time. What I don’t understand is why it’s taking so long for Che Zelensky T-shirts and posters to become popularized. Every generation needs a pop icon and if murderer Che Guevara filled the slot in the past there’s no reason for WW3-promoter Zelensky not to replace him. There’s a lot of money to be made too.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mikel

    Che was more marketable because he was seen as off-white.

    Replies: @S

    , @S
    @Mikel

    Considering that Che was a Marxist I always found his commercialization rather ironic.

  266. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    border between be moved westward to a point 19 east of Vyborg and that Finland to destroy all existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus.
     
    That's what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf - it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    Russia was pushy because everybody knew that a war was coming and that Finland was potentially allied with Germany - as turned out to be true. Finland would be better off if they agreed to the demand. But as today, rationality was thrown out and people died.

    I also think that Germany's demand in August 1939 for a "corridor" to link East Prussia with Danzig was reasonable. As were previously their demands for protecting German minorities. In hindsight, it is easy to demonize Germans - but at that time those demands should had been taken seriously. It is possible that more reasonable parts of the German elite would act against the Nazis and some of the bloody carnage of WWII would be avoided.

    Replies: @AP

    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.

    The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there.

    This is only 86 miles from Helsinki. It is west of Helsinki, very far from the Soviet border.

    :::::::::::::::::

    BTW I heard about the Polish tanks and the process of their procurement, at a bar in Poland a couple weeks ago. I didn’t publicly say what was told to me until it became widely known now, nor will I say other things I heard until they become widely known (if they do). But it was nice to get confirmation that it wasn’t all just drunken empty boasting.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    ...The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!
     
    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg. The Hanko peninsula was preserved.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars. When are they finally marching on Moscow? Or at least Minsk or Kaliningrad? Tell them not to forget the horses.

    Replies: @AP

    , @LatW
    @AP


    in Poland a couple weeks ago
     
    That photo you posted of the Patriot missiles there was really cool. Thanks for posting that.
  267. @Beckow
    @sudden death

    The volume is down. To crush a currency you need to sell it, but West liquidated rubles in February and now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains. And repatriation by oligarchs forced to sell or lose Western assets.

    The ruble is higher than a year ago and if nothing changes it will continue. If the West blocks Russian exports, inflation will explode more. It is a Mexican standoff.

    China also prevents its citizens from trading yuan for dollars. Many countries do that, it leads to a black market but the volumes are minuscule, it is just noise.

    Replies: @sudden death

    ….now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains.

    Where from is news about oil&payment scheme changes? As I said earlier, gas payment scheming essentially changed nothing, price in euros remain the same as were prior, gas buyers make payments in euros too, without any prior ruble purchases:

    29.04.2022 official Lavrov:

    В.В.Путин подписал указ, согласно которому с этого момента нужно будет платить не «Газпрому» на его счета в западных банках, а платить «Газпром-банку» по-прежнему в долларах и евро. Ничего не изменится. Та же сумма в иностранной валюте, которая оговорена в контракте. И затем в «Газпром-банке» евро и доллары будут переведены на рублевый счет.

    Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which, from now on, it will be necessary to pay not to Gazprom to its accounts in Western banks, but to pay Gazprom-Bank, as before, in dollars and euros. Nothing will change. The same amount in foreign currency, which is stipulated in the contract. And then in “Gazprom-bank” euros and dollars will be transferred to the ruble account.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Source: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811531/

    And Gazprom bank was not even sanctioned up to this day IIRC, so the only "breach of contract" may be unilateral changing prior bank account numbers which were written in before?

    Replies: @Beckow

  268. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird

    My general point is I don't think Russia has ever been as isolated in its entire history. China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality. With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn't have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there's not much Russia can do for China. If anything at this point Russo-Japanese rapprochement isn't bad for China.

    Also it might let Olaf go easier on those Waffenlieferungen.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-japan-seek-deeper-ties-during-scholz-visit/a-61608621

    Kurils seem more strategically important to Russia than Japan.

    Why exactly? By the way Japanese-American actor Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa of Rising Sun, converted to Orthodoxy and became a Russian citizen, he has Russian movie here Confession of A Samurai,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFcBmoD7kk

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird

    It’s about Russia’s Pacific fleet.

    Japan can control the egress of its own navy because it has both a Pacific-facing coast, as well as since it controls a longitudinal chain of islands, in temperate waters that don’t freeze, so it controls all the passage ways.

    In Russia’s case, it’s in more northern latitudes, so ice is a significant problem. Passage between the southern Kurils is ice-free or mostly ice-free. (And they can be defended with anti-ship missiles) Not true of the northern ones. Maybe, they could proceed along the coast of Asia southward, but the US controls all the chokepoints.

    I can’t really think of an alternative, from a military standpoint.

    It’s fun to think about possible deals though. Seems to me that from a Japanese perspective, it is kind of a national touchstone, so that is pretty valuable, and maybe they could turn it to their advantage somehow.

    Like, it is a fantastic scenario, but what if Russia demanded that Japan increase its TFR to replacement. (which would be Japan benefiting, but that could be a way to help organize it as a national goal – they would have to give something valuable back though.)

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird

    Some historical background on this--


    Slavinsky suggests that Stalin's agreement with Churchill and Roosevelt to attack Japan after Germany's surrender allowed him to keep Japan in the war until he was ready to attack and thus avenge Russia's defeat in the war of 1904-1905.

    Slavinsky draws on recently opened Russian archival material to demonstrate that the Soviet Union was passing information about the Allies to Japan during the Second World War. He also persuasively argues that vengeance and the (re)acquistion of land were the primary motives for the attack on Japan.
     

    https://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Soviet-Neutrality-Pact-Diplomatic-1941-1945/dp/0415322928

    If you go back farther, prima facie its hard to justify Japan being the instigator of enmity. After all, Russo-Japanese War took place in Japan's backyard, Manchuria and Korea, not Russia's.

    It's common misunderstood, but Japan's national seclusion, Sakoku 鎖国, "locked country" was ended by equally the West and Russia. The earliest incidence being 文化露寇 Bunka rokō "Bunka Russian Invasion" (1806), or Khvostov Incident:

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Инцидент_Хвостова

    The Perry Expedition wasn't until 1853.

    Anyways, it appears that Russia promptly cut off Kurile Island talks pursuant to the Ukraine War.

    increase its TFR
    Same as I was saying to TF, Japan like China is way overpopulated, while Russia Far East is less than 10 mln.

    Replies: @sudden death

  269. AP says:
    @German_reader
    @songbird


    And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet.
     
    Well, they've already said that they don't care anymore if their attacks kill Western advisers in Ukraine. And the lack of restraint by Western policy-makers (like the British depute defense minister who said there's no problem if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for attacks within Russia) will probably also lead to reactions.
    But I agree, it's bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don't really seem to get that in Russia's case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back, unlike the one-sided affairs with Iraq, Serbia etc.

    Replies: @AP, @S

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away. There is nothing “provocative” about giving Ukraine weapons with which Ukraine can defend itself against a country that has violated all norms to invade it.

    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    • Agree: utu
    • Troll: songbird
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away.
     
    There's a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn't subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you've called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
    Also you're again forgetting one thing: Nobody owes Ukraine anything, no matter how much Ukrainians think they're entitled to solidarity. This choice is purely for Westerners (preferably those without dual loyalties) to make, and when in doubt our existential interests have to take preference, not those of Ukraine.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @songbird
    @AP


    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.
     
    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism, and that we should be Catholic universalists or something.

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism, with unlimited potential for violence. That any moral person must advocate sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. That you must risk nuclear escalation. Give hundreds of billions of dollars that will never be paid back. Deplete your own defense stocks, while taking on decades worth of animus of a nuclear power, to say nothing of imploding your economy and freezing through the next winter (for the energy-dependent.)

    Or, as you say, you are a moron and a supporter of Putin and bad things should happen to your family, without them being prepared for them.

    So, have you changed your views on nationalism? Or is universal Ukrainian nationalism the only one allowed?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP

  270. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @German_reader

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia's choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away. There is nothing "provocative" about giving Ukraine weapons with which Ukraine can defend itself against a country that has violated all norms to invade it.

    I hope all of Russia's useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away.

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
    Also you’re again forgetting one thing: Nobody owes Ukraine anything, no matter how much Ukrainians think they’re entitled to solidarity. This choice is purely for Westerners (preferably those without dual loyalties) to make, and when in doubt our existential interests have to take preference, not those of Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader


    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
     
    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself. If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia's military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas) - that's the price of Russia's aggression. Provided the West stops supporting Ukraine after Russia is cleared from Ukraine's territory, the West has done nothing wrong and indeed has done the right thing. I do not of course want Ukraine to take into its territory areas with a non-Ukrainian hostile population such as Crimea or urban Donbas, for Ukraine's sake and not for Russia's.

    Nobody owes Ukraine anything
     
    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile. It's now in the frontline of Russian aggression in Europe. Setting that aside, punishing aggression is a good thing whether or not anyone is owed anything. Russia which chose to invade a country and kill its people is "owed" getting its soldiers killed and getting its military and economy degraded. Lavishly providing Ukrainians (who unlike Afghans or Arabs will use the weapons provided them very effectively) with the means to do so is good. May this debacle reduce the chances of future invasions and wars.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader


    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
     
    You aren't using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

  271. Biden Cartoon

    • Replies: @A123
    @Mikhail

    The scary part is that the footage of Not-The-President Biden is effectively unedited. Only the background has been swapped: (1)


    It is getting worse…. This is not okay. Nothing about this is okay.
     
    https://youtu.be/VCKZZTOXA-0

    Not-The-VP Harris presents the coup puppeteers with a massive dilemma. The current dribbler is a disaster, but at least it can be denied medication & locked in the occupied White House basement. What would happen if the replacement tried to make policy by herself? That is a risk they cannot take.

    The writers that produced Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister need to tackle this illegitimate White House.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/

    Replies: @keypusher, @Mikhail

  272. AP says:
    @German_reader
    @AP


    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away.
     
    There's a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn't subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you've called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
    Also you're again forgetting one thing: Nobody owes Ukraine anything, no matter how much Ukrainians think they're entitled to solidarity. This choice is purely for Westerners (preferably those without dual loyalties) to make, and when in doubt our existential interests have to take preference, not those of Ukraine.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).

    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself. If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas) – that’s the price of Russia’s aggression. Provided the West stops supporting Ukraine after Russia is cleared from Ukraine’s territory, the West has done nothing wrong and indeed has done the right thing. I do not of course want Ukraine to take into its territory areas with a non-Ukrainian hostile population such as Crimea or urban Donbas, for Ukraine’s sake and not for Russia’s.

    Nobody owes Ukraine anything

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile. It’s now in the frontline of Russian aggression in Europe. Setting that aside, punishing aggression is a good thing whether or not anyone is owed anything. Russia which chose to invade a country and kill its people is “owed” getting its soldiers killed and getting its military and economy degraded. Lavishly providing Ukrainians (who unlike Afghans or Arabs will use the weapons provided them very effectively) with the means to do so is good. May this debacle reduce the chances of future invasions and wars.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.
     
    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I'd even agree that it isn't desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn't want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn't sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine's pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)
     
    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they'll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won't, because they're hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren't worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

     

    That's laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev's decisions, and Ukraine couldn't have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn't a meaningful sacrifice.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP, @A123

  273. @Mikel
    @songbird


    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.
     
    Those emojis are here to stay for a long time. What I don't understand is why it's taking so long for Che Zelensky T-shirts and posters to become popularized. Every generation needs a pop icon and if murderer Che Guevara filled the slot in the past there's no reason for WW3-promoter Zelensky not to replace him. There's a lot of money to be made too.

    Replies: @songbird, @S

    Che was more marketable because he was seen as off-white.

    • Agree: Mikel
    • LOL: S
    • Replies: @S
    @songbird

    Yes, that's certainly true. But the really big question for some is if there will be a Zelensky action figure, and will it be out in time for Christmas?

    Replies: @songbird

  274. S says:
    @German_reader
    @songbird


    And it seems like they haven’t hit back yet.
     
    Well, they've already said that they don't care anymore if their attacks kill Western advisers in Ukraine. And the lack of restraint by Western policy-makers (like the British depute defense minister who said there's no problem if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for attacks within Russia) will probably also lead to reactions.
    But I agree, it's bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don't really seem to get that in Russia's case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back, unlike the one-sided affairs with Iraq, Serbia etc.

    Replies: @AP, @S

    ..it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back..

    There’s a tremendous amount of hubris in the US at present. You can readily sense it . They are literally and consciously copying the lead up events to WWII in detail, almost cargo cult like, or, paint by numbers, as if that by itself might win a war with Russia. The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    • Replies: @AP
    @S


    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.
     
    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @S

  275. @sudden death
    @Beckow


    ....now the main exchange activity is buying rubles to pay for the Russian gas, oil, grains.
     
    Where from is news about oil&payment scheme changes? As I said earlier, gas payment scheming essentially changed nothing, price in euros remain the same as were prior, gas buyers make payments in euros too, without any prior ruble purchases:



    29.04.2022 official Lavrov:

    В.В.Путин подписал указ, согласно которому с этого момента нужно будет платить не «Газпрому» на его счета в западных банках, а платить «Газпром-банку» по-прежнему в долларах и евро. Ничего не изменится. Та же сумма в иностранной валюте, которая оговорена в контракте. И затем в «Газпром-банке» евро и доллары будут переведены на рублевый счет.


    Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which, from now on, it will be necessary to pay not to Gazprom to its accounts in Western banks, but to pay Gazprom-Bank, as before, in dollars and euros. Nothing will change. The same amount in foreign currency, which is stipulated in the contract. And then in "Gazprom-bank" euros and dollars will be transferred to the ruble account.
     

    Replies: @sudden death

    Source: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811531/

    And Gazprom bank was not even sanctioned up to this day IIRC, so the only “breach of contract” may be unilateral changing prior bank account numbers which were written in before?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @sudden death

    Contracts during a war are for birds, none of it can be enforced.

    The trade between EU and Russia is now very simple: Russia delivers gas, EU pays the invoice, money ends up in Russia as rubles. What happens in the middle is only process. What matters is what is given and what is received: gas to EU and rubles to Russia.

    This is new. Until this month the payments stayed in Euros-$s in the Gazprom Western accounts - in effect EU didn't really pay. If I sell you a sandwich and you "pay" in your house money and I am stupid enough to keep that payment in a bank you control in that money, you effectively don't pay for the sandwich until I withdraw that money and buy something with it. This is exactly the petro-dollar scheme that US came up with after dropping the gold standard. That is what keeps $ and Euro valuable.

    Russia is breaking the long-term scheme that is propping up the Western living standards. That's why the West can't give in: they either win the war, or at least they must be seen as not losing to Russia. It makes the situation very dangerous. This will get much worse before it is over.

  276. @Mikel
    @songbird


    There should be a Metaculus for when the Ukraine flag emojis come down.
     
    Those emojis are here to stay for a long time. What I don't understand is why it's taking so long for Che Zelensky T-shirts and posters to become popularized. Every generation needs a pop icon and if murderer Che Guevara filled the slot in the past there's no reason for WW3-promoter Zelensky not to replace him. There's a lot of money to be made too.

    Replies: @songbird, @S

    Considering that Che was a Marxist I always found his commercialization rather ironic.

  277. @songbird
    @Mikel

    Che was more marketable because he was seen as off-white.

    Replies: @S

    Yes, that’s certainly true. But the really big question for some is if there will be a Zelensky action figure, and will it be out in time for Christmas?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    Since "gender neutrality" is such a big thing now, I'd suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season. Pull the string and he will say something in a lisp about the "transphobic" truckers.

    Replies: @S

  278. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @German_reader


    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
     
    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself. If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia's military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas) - that's the price of Russia's aggression. Provided the West stops supporting Ukraine after Russia is cleared from Ukraine's territory, the West has done nothing wrong and indeed has done the right thing. I do not of course want Ukraine to take into its territory areas with a non-Ukrainian hostile population such as Crimea or urban Donbas, for Ukraine's sake and not for Russia's.

    Nobody owes Ukraine anything
     
    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile. It's now in the frontline of Russian aggression in Europe. Setting that aside, punishing aggression is a good thing whether or not anyone is owed anything. Russia which chose to invade a country and kill its people is "owed" getting its soldiers killed and getting its military and economy degraded. Lavishly providing Ukrainians (who unlike Afghans or Arabs will use the weapons provided them very effectively) with the means to do so is good. May this debacle reduce the chances of future invasions and wars.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.

    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I’d even agree that it isn’t desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn’t want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won’t, because they’re hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren’t worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @German_reader


    I’d even agree that it isn’t desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn’t want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary.
     
    Not too distant US action suggests differently. As for Ukraine, it has been the geopolitically greedy neolib/neocon, anti-Russian leaning influenced Western establishment which has played the zero sum game much unlike Russia.

    The longer the war, the less beneficial for Ukraine.
    , @AP
    @German_reader


    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
     
    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It's a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it's a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.
     
    I don't disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia's crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so
     
    Again, I don't disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can't stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it's an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and
     
    Ukraine's decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.
     
    You really think Ukraine's engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu, @Mr. Hack

    , @A123
    @German_reader


    giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.
     
    The Ukrainian War Criminals have to bear a sanction for their part in starting this war. I have discussed their malicious targeting of civilians in Crimea several times. Sending them to the Hague is as implausible as sending Putin. However, on the ground any deal will have to keep criminal aggressor Ukraine away from water supplies and other levers that could be used for future, illegal, collective punishment targeting Russian and Donbas civilians.

    Getting Russia to the negotiating table is straightforward. Obtaining "Agreement Capable" representation from Ukraine is much harder. Feeding in resupply at a rate that gives the Maximalist Ukies false hope of impossible gains makes things worse.
    ____

    The talk about nuclear weapons is likely coded messaging to Poland's leaders.

    Serving as an equipment & intelligence conduit is grey area, but probably does not void NATO guarantees. Sending actual Polish combat units into Ukraine will void Poland's NATO protection, thus opening the door to Russian use of nuclear weapons.

    PEACE 😇
  279. LT voluntarily stopped RF gas imports month ago, annual usage was roughly fluctuating about 2,2 -2,5 billion m3 a year, overall LNG import capacity roughly about 2,8 billion m3, so some amounts will be delivered for Poland too. For comparison – Bulgaria, which has 2,5x more population than LT, used about 2,9 billion m3 of nat gas yearly IIRC:

    2022 04 02 Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia’s energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas: Lithuania’s gas transmission system has been operating without Russian gas imports since the beginning of this month.

    This is confirmed by the data of the Lithuanian gas transmission system operator Amber Grid, which shows that on 2 April the import of Russian gas for Lithuania’s needs through the Lithuanian-Belarusian interconnection was equal to 0 MWh.

    All lithuanian gas demand is satisfied through Klaipeda liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. The official schedules planned by the liquefied natural gas terminal operator Klaipedos Nafta indicate that three large cargoes of liquefied natural gas will reach the terminal each month, which are planned to be enough for all customers. For the next period, customers have placed orders for gas transportation only from the terminal. If necessary, gas can also be delivered to Lithuania via the gas link with Latvia, and from 1 May – through the gas link with Poland.

    Minister of Energy Dainius Kreivys says that this is a turning point in the history of Lithuania’s energy independence: “We are the first EU country among Gazprom’s supply countries to gain independence from Russian gas supplies, and this is the result of a multi-year coherent energy policy and timely infrastructure decisions”.

    In these circumstances, Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles is meaningless, as Lithuania no longer orders Russian gas and no longer plans to pay for it. In response, Russian gas supply company Gazprom informed Amber Grid that it no longer wants to import gas from Russia via the Lithuanian-Belarusian link.

    https://enmin.lrv.lt/en/news/lithuania-completely-abandons-russian-gas-imports

    • Replies: @Pixo
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @sudden death, @A123, @Daniel H

  280. @Thulean Friend
    Ruble now stronger than pre-invasion; external balance sheet looks shockingly good.

    https://i.imgur.com/DjY905B.png

    Forget all the hype about punishing Russia. The Kremlin can be in this war for much longer than their opponents can. This explains the fact why Putin's not in a hurry.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @A123, @Pixo

    There’s no free market in rubles, the rate is whatever the government says.

    Russia’s trade surplus is obviously supportive of the ruble, and it is growing. But that’s just one factor.

    A much bigger one is demand for ruble denominated assets. And that has fallen off a cliff. No rational foreigner would want to invest in Russia given the asset seizures and capital controls. Western companies that were bullish on Russia and invested there all have been badly burned.

    The idea that Russian wealth will be repatriated because of the Western seizures if oligarch wealth is unproved and seems unlikely. The safe place for corrupt Russian money, is no longer London, Sardinia, and Bel Air. There are other spots like the UAE, Switzerland, Israel, Cyprus, and possibly SE Asia and Latin America. Those all seem like better bets that staying rich in Russia and on Putin’s good side, and his successors.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Pixo

    Hasn't Cyprus (EU member) and Switzerland followed EU sanctions and proceeded to seized all the wealth on their soil? Singapore too in SE Asia.

    Replies: @Pixo

  281. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    So what are Ukrainian nationalists to do? Abandon their flag because it looks like an equals sign that all the progressives have seized? Or try to ride the signaling wave somehow?
    ________
    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they'll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed. It would be funny if US stopped exports to control domestic prices.

    If they are crazy enough to do an energy embargo, that should raise the nuclear specter significantly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed.

    Hungary will be 100% fine.

    Hungary has agreed with Russia on all the conditions for a new long-term gas supply deal, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. The agreement is for 15 years and gas flows running to Hungary will bypass Ukraine.

    Hungary’s 1995 supply deal with Russia is set to expire soon thus Budapest decided to extend the agreement. … Hungary will buy 4.5 bcm of gas per year while this amount is set to decrease over the next five years.

    Gazprom would ship 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Hungary annually, via two routes: 3.5 billion cubic meters via Serbia (TurkStream) and 1 billion cubic meters via Austria

    The Horgoš, Serbia/Hungary interconnection is fairly new. I was quite surprised at the routing via Turkey when the contract was announced.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://warsawinstitute.org/hungary-russia-agree-new-gas-contract/

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Thanks, I didn't realize about that pathway.

    But I wonder if they would still blow it with submersible drones, though, I suppose that would probably make the Turks angry, so they may not risk it.

  282. @S
    @songbird

    Yes, that's certainly true. But the really big question for some is if there will be a Zelensky action figure, and will it be out in time for Christmas?

    Replies: @songbird

    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season. Pull the string and he will say something in a lisp about the “transphobic” truckers.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season...
     
    Hehe! That was brutal Songbird.

    Replies: @songbird

  283. AP says:
    @S
    @German_reader


    ..it’s bizarre how a lot of virtue-signaling Westerners don’t really seem to get that in Russia’s case this could actually turn into a war where the other side shoots back..
     
    There's a tremendous amount of hubris in the US at present. You can readily sense it . They are literally and consciously copying the lead up events to WWII in detail, almost cargo cult like, or, paint by numbers, as if that by itself might win a war with Russia. The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they've originally planned.

    Replies: @AP

    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP


    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.
     
    USSR was unsustainable and to the detriment of Russia and others. Russia and the other former Soviet republics would've benefited from a non-Communist alternative. Regardless, the degree of freedom and government concern for overall living conditions has improved in post-Soviet Russia.

    The USA isn't as geopolitically significant as it once was, while still being a major power - one with limits which Obama noted in his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg regarding Ukraine.
    , @S
    @AP



    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

     

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.
     
    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse. The UK, particularly England, seems to be deliberately destroying it's own Anglo-Saxon power base. So the US and UK are weaker in that sense than they were imo.

    In their blinding hubris, some large segments of the US and UK elites and their hangers on may think, even so, that a WWIII with Russia will be a repeat of WWII with Germany, where relatively speaking, the US and UK (though particularly the US) got off a lot lighter than many other countries in regards to damage sustained and casualties incurred.

    That might well change quite a bit this go around. That is what I was getting at. No doubt the elites who thought it would all be 'a cakewalk' with Russia would be shocked.

    Some of the upper tier of the US and UK elites seem to know better and are planning accordingly. I think the stories of the extensive blast and radiation proof underground shelters, the kind with a ten year supply of food, water, oxygen, entertainment facilities, etc, built in Southern portions of the globe for the ultra wealthy and powerful, are probably true.

    Anyhow, the US in the last years of the Trump administration increased US internal steel production capabilities and with fracking, has made the US entirely capable of being wholly oil independent from the Mideast and elsewhere. I think this was in preparation for WWIII.

    I think after a relatively short conventional war with Russia (and China, Iran, N Korea, etc,) this war would go nuclear, as long planned.

    What to do?

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    Though certainly more difficult for people in Ukraine and Russia at present, where things are quite a bit 'hotter', and seemingly counter-intuitive, I would suggest the same. I would perhaps say different if I thought any of the parties involved were fighting 'on their terms', but I don't see it. I instead see various peoples being manipulated into this war against their own interest, with the objective being ultimately that they be destroyed.

    And pray. And not necessarily in that order.

    Replies: @AP

  284. @A123
    @songbird


    Pretty crazy if they embargo oil. Once they do an embargo, IMO, they’ll give Ukraine the greenlight to blow the pipes, so a place like Hungary (landlocked) will be royally screwed.
     
    Hungary will be 100% fine.

    Hungary has agreed with Russia on all the conditions for a new long-term gas supply deal, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. The agreement is for 15 years and gas flows running to Hungary will bypass Ukraine.

    Hungary’s 1995 supply deal with Russia is set to expire soon thus Budapest decided to extend the agreement. ... Hungary will buy 4.5 bcm of gas per year while this amount is set to decrease over the next five years.

    Gazprom would ship 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Hungary annually, via two routes: 3.5 billion cubic meters via Serbia (TurkStream) and 1 billion cubic meters via Austria
     
    The Horgoš, Serbia/Hungary interconnection is fairly new. I was quite surprised at the routing via Turkey when the contract was announced.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://warsawinstitute.org/hungary-russia-agree-new-gas-contract/

    Replies: @songbird

    Thanks, I didn’t realize about that pathway.

    But I wonder if they would still blow it with submersible drones, though, I suppose that would probably make the Turks angry, so they may not risk it.

  285. @sudden death
    LT voluntarily stopped RF gas imports month ago, annual usage was roughly fluctuating about 2,2 -2,5 billion m3 a year, overall LNG import capacity roughly about 2,8 billion m3, so some amounts will be delivered for Poland too. For comparison - Bulgaria, which has 2,5x more population than LT, used about 2,9 billion m3 of nat gas yearly IIRC:

    2022 04 02 Seeking full energy independence from Russian gas, in response to Russia's energy blackmail in Europe and the war in Ukraine, Lithuania has completely abandoned Russian gas: Lithuania's gas transmission system has been operating without Russian gas imports since the beginning of this month.

    This is confirmed by the data of the Lithuanian gas transmission system operator Amber Grid, which shows that on 2 April the import of Russian gas for Lithuania's needs through the Lithuanian-Belarusian interconnection was equal to 0 MWh.

    All lithuanian gas demand is satisfied through Klaipeda liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. The official schedules planned by the liquefied natural gas terminal operator Klaipedos Nafta indicate that three large cargoes of liquefied natural gas will reach the terminal each month, which are planned to be enough for all customers. For the next period, customers have placed orders for gas transportation only from the terminal. If necessary, gas can also be delivered to Lithuania via the gas link with Latvia, and from 1 May – through the gas link with Poland.

    Minister of Energy Dainius Kreivys says that this is a turning point in the history of Lithuania's energy independence: "We are the first EU country among Gazprom's supply countries to gain independence from Russian gas supplies, and this is the result of a multi-year coherent energy policy and timely infrastructure decisions".

    In these circumstances, Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles is meaningless, as Lithuania no longer orders Russian gas and no longer plans to pay for it. In response, Russian gas supply company Gazprom informed Amber Grid that it no longer wants to import gas from Russia via the Lithuanian-Belarusian link.
     

    https://enmin.lrv.lt/en/news/lithuania-completely-abandons-russian-gas-imports

    Replies: @Pixo

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Pixo

    A more nuance situation from what you say. You might find this of interest:

    https://scotthorton.org/interviews/4-22-22-william-arkin-on-russias-failures-in-ukraine/

    Have yet to view, with the header suggesting agreement with your take.

    , @sudden death
    @Pixo

    Specifically for Poland and Baltic states it makes zero sense to purchase RF natgas&oil if there's enough import capacity to buy from other sources, cause RF will use the money to make propaganda, weapons and equipment for troops who will be positioned against them near their own border.

    Poland and Lithuania, being NATO members are way more rationally using money by buying US LNG and somewhat reducing US current account deficit, but getting US troops and commitments in exchange. Subsequently this becomes and some straight material mercantilistic interest for USA, not just some abstract geopolitical transantlantism, which is so disliked by US isolationist wing.

    , @A123
    @Pixo


    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.
     
    It should be, but it is not.

    The anti-European EU is both degenerate and delusional. This is what they are trying to push: (1)

    Europe has formally demanded to pay for Russian imports with Schrödinger Euros
    ...
    European Central Bank would now “print” euros with a keyboard 100% for free and then transfer such euros over to the Russian exporters bank accounts in the EU albeit now under “frozen” status. So Russia never gets to use such euros – which actually never see the light of day
    ...

    It´d be a “print & deposit + freeze & hide” seizure and expect-the-Russians-to-fall-for-it trick…as if they were K6 kids.

    Now of course I can hear the maniacs in charge arguing that this would only be “temporary” – of course — and that as soon as Russia gets out of Ukraine under “acceptable” terms – of course, yet again — everything will get back to yankee doodle normal.
     
    Never underestimate how much EU Elites, and their EU Bankers, hate the fact that European nations are sovereign. EU policy exists to damage Europe, European nations, and European citizens.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/schrodinger-euros
    , @Daniel H
    @Pixo


    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.
     
    How is it dumb? And the strategy seems to be more than symbolic. By forcing gas/oil importers to pay for Russian gas/oil in Rubles Russia is compelling the west to sell products to Russia, products (advanced technology) that the west at this moment would rather not sell to Russia. "You want Rubles? We will give you Rubles, but sell us those advanced industrial controllers, chip manufacturing infrastructure, etc that we will pay for with Rubles..." Seems like a smart move by Russia. Why accept payment in US dollars when the US state will end up stealing it anyway? What do I know about economics, though.
  286. @AP
    @S


    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.
     
    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @S

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    USSR was unsustainable and to the detriment of Russia and others. Russia and the other former Soviet republics would’ve benefited from a non-Communist alternative. Regardless, the degree of freedom and government concern for overall living conditions has improved in post-Soviet Russia.

    The USA isn’t as geopolitically significant as it once was, while still being a major power – one with limits which Obama noted in his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg regarding Ukraine.

    • Disagree: Yevardian
  287. @Pixo
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @sudden death, @A123, @Daniel H

    A more nuance situation from what you say. You might find this of interest:

    https://scotthorton.org/interviews/4-22-22-william-arkin-on-russias-failures-in-ukraine/

    Have yet to view, with the header suggesting agreement with your take.

  288. @German_reader
    @AP


    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.
     
    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I'd even agree that it isn't desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn't want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn't sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine's pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)
     
    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they'll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won't, because they're hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren't worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

     

    That's laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev's decisions, and Ukraine couldn't have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn't a meaningful sacrifice.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP, @A123

    I’d even agree that it isn’t desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn’t want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary.

    Not too distant US action suggests differently. As for Ukraine, it has been the geopolitically greedy neolib/neocon, anti-Russian leaning influenced Western establishment which has played the zero sum game much unlike Russia.

    The longer the war, the less beneficial for Ukraine.

  289. @Pixo
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @sudden death, @A123, @Daniel H

    Specifically for Poland and Baltic states it makes zero sense to purchase RF natgas&oil if there’s enough import capacity to buy from other sources, cause RF will use the money to make propaganda, weapons and equipment for troops who will be positioned against them near their own border.

    Poland and Lithuania, being NATO members are way more rationally using money by buying US LNG and somewhat reducing US current account deficit, but getting US troops and commitments in exchange. Subsequently this becomes and some straight material mercantilistic interest for USA, not just some abstract geopolitical transantlantism, which is so disliked by US isolationist wing.

  290. AP says:
    @German_reader
    @AP


    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.
     
    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I'd even agree that it isn't desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn't want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn't sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine's pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)
     
    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they'll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won't, because they're hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren't worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

     

    That's laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev's decisions, and Ukraine couldn't have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn't a meaningful sacrifice.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP, @A123

    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?

    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it’s a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.

    I don’t disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia’s crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so

    Again, I don’t disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    • Agree: Mr. Hack, Pixo
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival.
     
    I admit there's a certain logic to that and I won't pretend to be sad that so many Russians have been killed in Ukraine. However, I disagree with the idea of keeping the war going just to weaken Russia. If (and of course that's a big if, who knows what's going on in Putin's head by now) there's a chance to reach a negotiated settlement which leaves Ukraine in full sovereignty over the territory it held before February, one should pursue it.
    I also don't think that Russia has been purely hostile towards the West over the last 20 years, on some issues like Afghanistan/Islamists in Central Asia or the nuclear issue with Iran there was at least some constructive cooperation. Of course the chance for such cooperation may be irreversibly gone now, but from my pov that isn't a positive development.

    If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.
     
    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I'm unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade.
     
    Ok, if you phrase it like that... But all that is hypothetical for now anyway.

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR
     
    tbh I don't see why that should matter much to most Europeans or Americans, by then Germany had been re-unified and the Soviets had already allowed Poles, Czechs and other Warsaw Pact members to go their own way.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?
     
    Given Ukraine's economic and other internal problems this doesn't strike me as a realistic possibility.
    See here:
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0043820016673777

    Moreover, establishing operational control over the existing missiles on Ukraine’s territory still would have left Ukraine with a problem of how to replace them once their service life expired, as Ukraine lacked some of the key elements of a nuclear weapons program. These elements included uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities to fabricate nuclear fuel, as well as nuclear warhead production and nuclear—and missile—testing ranges. This is not even to mention the more sophisticated elements essential for making Ukraine’s deterrent against Russia’s giant nuclear forces survivable and credible, such as the early warning system, the geodetic data from satellites necessary for accurate targeting, as well as extensive research, production, and maintenance facilities necessary for ongoing nuclear force modernization (for a more detailed discussion see Kincade 1993).

    Thus, after bringing upon itself the wrath of the civilized world, and possibly a retaliatory action from Russia, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in a nuclear weapons program, the cost of which the Ukrainian government estimated at a minimum of $2 billion. Those who remember the early 1990s in Ukraine will agree that, for a country ravaged by hyperinflation and the severe economic crisis of a post-Soviet transition, such an investment would have been prohibitive. Indeed, some in Russia thought that American insistence on Ukraine’s quick denuclearization was misguided. For instance, Vitaliy Kataev, a senior representative of the Soviet, then Russian, military industrial complex, argued that Ukraine should be left alone with its ICBMs and made to carry the cost of maintaining and eventually disposing of them as their service life expired toward the end of the 1990s (Kataev 1994, 3). By that time, he maintained, Ukrainians would come begging that Russia and the West take these missiles off their hands.
     

    Also here:
    https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/02/06/could-ukraine-have-retained-soviet-nuclear-weapons/

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @utu
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven't learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those 'German intellectuals' like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:



    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”
     
    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that 'nobody owes anybody anything' and that 'nobody owes Ukraine anything' in particular.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird, @AP, @Dmitry

    , @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Great reply! For a moment, I thought that I was reading a reply that I had wrote. :-) You really took off the gloves for this reply, and of all people it had to be German_ Reader (a commenter that we both respect here) that was on the opposing end. The exploits of the Ukrainian military must be inspiring you.

  291. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @AP


    Putin chose to invade Ukraine, the just thing to do is to give Ukraine weapons with which to defend itself.
     
    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
    I'd even agree that it isn't desirable that Russia just gets away with its invasion, after all it was a massive breach of post-1945 norms and one doesn't want Russia to acquire greater appetite. So yes, giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn't sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine's pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)
     
    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they'll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so (but of course they won't, because they're hubristic fools).
    Crimea and Donbass aren't worth the risk of nuclear conflagration.

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

     

    That's laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev's decisions, and Ukraine couldn't have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn't a meaningful sacrifice.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP, @A123

    giving Ukraine weapons so it can repel further Russian advances and (one hopes) force Russia to the negotiating table probably is sensible and maybe even necessary. What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity. Because the ways this is likely to end are an on-going war proxy war at best, or nuclear catastrophe.

    The Ukrainian War Criminals have to bear a sanction for their part in starting this war. I have discussed their malicious targeting of civilians in Crimea several times. Sending them to the Hague is as implausible as sending Putin. However, on the ground any deal will have to keep criminal aggressor Ukraine away from water supplies and other levers that could be used for future, illegal, collective punishment targeting Russian and Donbas civilians.

    Getting Russia to the negotiating table is straightforward. Obtaining “Agreement Capable” representation from Ukraine is much harder. Feeding in resupply at a rate that gives the Maximalist Ukies false hope of impossible gains makes things worse.
    ____

    The talk about nuclear weapons is likely coded messaging to Poland’s leaders.

    Serving as an equipment & intelligence conduit is grey area, but probably does not void NATO guarantees. Sending actual Polish combat units into Ukraine will void Poland’s NATO protection, thus opening the door to Russian use of nuclear weapons.

    PEACE 😇

  292. @German_reader
    @AP


    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia’s choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away.
     
    There's a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn't subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you've called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
    Also you're again forgetting one thing: Nobody owes Ukraine anything, no matter how much Ukrainians think they're entitled to solidarity. This choice is purely for Westerners (preferably those without dual loyalties) to make, and when in doubt our existential interests have to take preference, not those of Ukraine.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).

    You aren’t using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    • Agree: songbird, S
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Nor Berlin, Paris, London, NYC, Tokyo, or Moscow, Beijing, Delhi, for the matter. They're moving to virtual networks that have secluded servers in blast-proof shelters far from populated places (I believe), so that their systems of command will remain intact.

    I look at the Schwab-Putin photos everyday and despair.

    , @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    You aren’t using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.
     
    Again, the purpose of the WEF Elites is the maximization is MENA refugees flows. Infidel Ukrainians & Russians are 100% expendable. Kiev, Sebastopol, Lviv, Sochi... if they fall to carnage that is an acceptable price for making the EU less European.

    I know that neither side's partisans want to hear it, but the TRUTH is the TRUTH. The fighting between Ukraine & Russia was deliberately engineered from the outside. It is a relatively tiny piece of a much larger struggle.

    PEACE 😇
  293. @Pixo
    @Thulean Friend

    There’s no free market in rubles, the rate is whatever the government says.

    Russia’s trade surplus is obviously supportive of the ruble, and it is growing. But that’s just one factor.

    A much bigger one is demand for ruble denominated assets. And that has fallen off a cliff. No rational foreigner would want to invest in Russia given the asset seizures and capital controls. Western companies that were bullish on Russia and invested there all have been badly burned.

    The idea that Russian wealth will be repatriated because of the Western seizures if oligarch wealth is unproved and seems unlikely. The safe place for corrupt Russian money, is no longer London, Sardinia, and Bel Air. There are other spots like the UAE, Switzerland, Israel, Cyprus, and possibly SE Asia and Latin America. Those all seem like better bets that staying rich in Russia and on Putin’s good side, and his successors.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Hasn’t Cyprus (EU member) and Switzerland followed EU sanctions and proceeded to seized all the wealth on their soil? Singapore too in SE Asia.

    • Replies: @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

  294. A123 says: • Website
    @Pixo
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @sudden death, @A123, @Daniel H

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    It should be, but it is not.

    The anti-European EU is both degenerate and delusional. This is what they are trying to push: (1)

    Europe has formally demanded to pay for Russian imports with Schrödinger Euros

    European Central Bank would now “print” euros with a keyboard 100% for free and then transfer such euros over to the Russian exporters bank accounts in the EU albeit now under “frozen” status. So Russia never gets to use such euros – which actually never see the light of day

    It´d be a “print & deposit + freeze & hide” seizure and expect-the-Russians-to-fall-for-it trick…as if they were K6 kids.

    Now of course I can hear the maniacs in charge arguing that this would only be “temporary” – of course — and that as soon as Russia gets out of Ukraine under “acceptable” terms – of course, yet again — everything will get back to yankee doodle normal.

    Never underestimate how much EU Elites, and their EU Bankers, hate the fact that European nations are sovereign. EU policy exists to damage Europe, European nations, and European citizens.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/schrodinger-euros

    • Agree: songbird
  295. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader


    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
     
    You aren't using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    Nor Berlin, Paris, London, NYC, Tokyo, or Moscow, Beijing, Delhi, for the matter. They’re moving to virtual networks that have secluded servers in blast-proof shelters far from populated places (I believe), so that their systems of command will remain intact.

    I look at the Schwab-Putin photos everyday and despair.

  296. @songbird
    @S

    Since "gender neutrality" is such a big thing now, I'd suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season. Pull the string and he will say something in a lisp about the "transphobic" truckers.

    Replies: @S

    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season…

    Hehe! That was brutal Songbird.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    Trudeau is genuinely creepy, IMO. Canada would be better off, if they forced everyone like Trudeau to get a haircut.

  297. One thing Russia could potentially do is attack SpaceX’s drone barge.

    IMO, it would be a dumb thing to do, as they have a lot of boosters, and can land at base, so it probably wouldn’t even affect their launch cadence, and next time they’d go out with the navy. A lot of room for escalation, without much payoff, but OTOH, it might seem attractive because it wouldn’t be quite the same as US soil, and it is an unmanned target, so probably no casualties.

    But definitely more sensible than spending a missile on a single small mass-produced satellite, that can launched 60 at a time.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    US would still intervene on the pretext of "attacking its own businesses and critical infrastructure", tho not as much as actually striking the US.

  298. @songbird
    One thing Russia could potentially do is attack SpaceX's drone barge.

    IMO, it would be a dumb thing to do, as they have a lot of boosters, and can land at base, so it probably wouldn't even affect their launch cadence, and next time they'd go out with the navy. A lot of room for escalation, without much payoff, but OTOH, it might seem attractive because it wouldn't be quite the same as US soil, and it is an unmanned target, so probably no casualties.

    But definitely more sensible than spending a missile on a single small mass-produced satellite, that can launched 60 at a time.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    US would still intervene on the pretext of “attacking its own businesses and critical infrastructure”, tho not as much as actually striking the US.

  299. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @German_reader


    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
     
    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It's a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it's a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.
     
    I don't disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia's crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so
     
    Again, I don't disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can't stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it's an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and
     
    Ukraine's decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.
     
    You really think Ukraine's engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu, @Mr. Hack

    It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival.

    I admit there’s a certain logic to that and I won’t pretend to be sad that so many Russians have been killed in Ukraine. However, I disagree with the idea of keeping the war going just to weaken Russia. If (and of course that’s a big if, who knows what’s going on in Putin’s head by now) there’s a chance to reach a negotiated settlement which leaves Ukraine in full sovereignty over the territory it held before February, one should pursue it.
    I also don’t think that Russia has been purely hostile towards the West over the last 20 years, on some issues like Afghanistan/Islamists in Central Asia or the nuclear issue with Iran there was at least some constructive cooperation. Of course the chance for such cooperation may be irreversibly gone now, but from my pov that isn’t a positive development.

    If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.

    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade.

    Ok, if you phrase it like that… But all that is hypothetical for now anyway.

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR

    tbh I don’t see why that should matter much to most Europeans or Americans, by then Germany had been re-unified and the Soviets had already allowed Poles, Czechs and other Warsaw Pact members to go their own way.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    Given Ukraine’s economic and other internal problems this doesn’t strike me as a realistic possibility.
    See here:
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0043820016673777

    [MORE]

    Moreover, establishing operational control over the existing missiles on Ukraine’s territory still would have left Ukraine with a problem of how to replace them once their service life expired, as Ukraine lacked some of the key elements of a nuclear weapons program. These elements included uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities to fabricate nuclear fuel, as well as nuclear warhead production and nuclear—and missile—testing ranges. This is not even to mention the more sophisticated elements essential for making Ukraine’s deterrent against Russia’s giant nuclear forces survivable and credible, such as the early warning system, the geodetic data from satellites necessary for accurate targeting, as well as extensive research, production, and maintenance facilities necessary for ongoing nuclear force modernization (for a more detailed discussion see Kincade 1993).

    Thus, after bringing upon itself the wrath of the civilized world, and possibly a retaliatory action from Russia, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in a nuclear weapons program, the cost of which the Ukrainian government estimated at a minimum of \$2 billion. Those who remember the early 1990s in Ukraine will agree that, for a country ravaged by hyperinflation and the severe economic crisis of a post-Soviet transition, such an investment would have been prohibitive. Indeed, some in Russia thought that American insistence on Ukraine’s quick denuclearization was misguided. For instance, Vitaliy Kataev, a senior representative of the Soviet, then Russian, military industrial complex, argued that Ukraine should be left alone with its ICBMs and made to carry the cost of maintaining and eventually disposing of them as their service life expired toward the end of the 1990s (Kataev 1994, 3). By that time, he maintained, Ukrainians would come begging that Russia and the West take these missiles off their hands.

    Also here:
    https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/02/06/could-ukraine-have-retained-soviet-nuclear-weapons/

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader


    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.
     
    It's a long ways to go to get to this point, and if the Ukrainian military were really to push the Russians this far back, I think somebody else in Russia would need to start looking at eliminating Putin. Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around. If the war goes another 4-6 months, Russia's economy will really start to feel all of the negative effects of the economic sanctions, it will become really messed up.

    Replies: @German_reader

  300. @Ron Unz
    @Sean


    As Lord Mountbatten said shortly before he was (according to Enoch Powell) assassinated by the CIA
     
    Interesting. I'd never heard that claim. Do you have a link to the source?

    Replies: @Sean

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29114378

    Powell also developed something of an obsession with what he believed was American influence over British policy towards Northern Ireland:

    “This obsession was partly caused by his possession of a State Department policy statement (from August 1950) that argued ‘it is desirable that Ireland should be integrated into the defence planning of the North Atlantic area, for its strategic position and present lack of defensive capacity are matters of significance’. Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford,”

    Neave was the eminence griseistrimental in the rise of Margaret Thatcher

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @Sean


    Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford.
     
    Very interesting. I'm extremely skeptical of that possibility, so Powell seems more delusional than I'd realized.

    Replies: @Matra

  301. @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Source: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811531/

    And Gazprom bank was not even sanctioned up to this day IIRC, so the only "breach of contract" may be unilateral changing prior bank account numbers which were written in before?

    Replies: @Beckow

    Contracts during a war are for birds, none of it can be enforced.

    The trade between EU and Russia is now very simple: Russia delivers gas, EU pays the invoice, money ends up in Russia as rubles. What happens in the middle is only process. What matters is what is given and what is received: gas to EU and rubles to Russia.

    This is new. Until this month the payments stayed in Euros-\$s in the Gazprom Western accounts – in effect EU didn’t really pay. If I sell you a sandwich and you “pay” in your house money and I am stupid enough to keep that payment in a bank you control in that money, you effectively don’t pay for the sandwich until I withdraw that money and buy something with it. This is exactly the petro-dollar scheme that US came up with after dropping the gold standard. That is what keeps \$ and Euro valuable.

    Russia is breaking the long-term scheme that is propping up the Western living standards. That’s why the West can’t give in: they either win the war, or at least they must be seen as not losing to Russia. It makes the situation very dangerous. This will get much worse before it is over.

  302. @AP
    @German_reader


    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
     
    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It's a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it's a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.
     
    I don't disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia's crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so
     
    Again, I don't disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can't stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it's an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and
     
    Ukraine's decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.
     
    You really think Ukraine's engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu, @Mr. Hack

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven’t learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those ‘German intellectuals’ like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:

    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”

    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that ‘nobody owes anybody anything’ and that ‘nobody owes Ukraine anything’ in particular.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @utu

    You've advocated for a No-fly-zone, that is not just for a proxy war, but literally for a direct US-Russia war. And you didn't even understand what you were calling for.
    Your opinion is totally worthless and you should be locked away in a mental asylum.

    , @songbird
    @utu


    German_twat
     
    Repeatedly using vulgarisms against someone here just makes you seem like a perverted psychopath. It is not the own you think it is.
    , @AP
    @utu

    You are absolutely correct about the German intellectuals and the German state but our German Reader is better than them, he at least supports arming Ukraine.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Dmitry
    @utu

    Topic of heavy military equipment support for Ukraine is complicated for Germany, not only for the political and legal issues, but also because of the equipment itself. The equipment would have logistical, training, technological obsolescence, obstacles, for being useful for Ukrainians.

    There are very detailed videos made by "Military History Visualized" channel on YouTube about the reality of these German heavy weapons and if they would be relevant for Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYZfvi0Ab78

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_DS6UvZXPo

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

  303. @utu
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven't learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those 'German intellectuals' like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:



    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”
     
    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that 'nobody owes anybody anything' and that 'nobody owes Ukraine anything' in particular.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird, @AP, @Dmitry

    You’ve advocated for a No-fly-zone, that is not just for a proxy war, but literally for a direct US-Russia war. And you didn’t even understand what you were calling for.
    Your opinion is totally worthless and you should be locked away in a mental asylum.

  304. @AP
    @Beckow


    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.
     
    The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there.

    This is only 86 miles from Helsinki. It is west of Helsinki, very far from the Soviet border.

    :::::::::::::::::

    BTW I heard about the Polish tanks and the process of their procurement, at a bar in Poland a couple weeks ago. I didn't publicly say what was told to me until it became widely known now, nor will I say other things I heard until they become widely known (if they do). But it was nice to get confirmation that it wasn't all just drunken empty boasting.

    Replies: @Beckow, @LatW

    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg. The Hanko peninsula was preserved.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars. When are they finally marching on Moscow? Or at least Minsk or Kaliningrad? Tell them not to forget the horses.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg
     

    1. It proves that you lied as usual when you claimed that Soviet demands were limited to some territory near Leningrad.

    2. Between a large Soviet base only 86 miles west of Helsinki and a Soviet border shifted more from the eastern side Finland would have been much more vulnerable.


    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars.
     
    Those arms dealers weren't Poles...what they said about the tanks has been confirmed though.

    Replies: @Beckow

  305. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikhail
    Biden Cartoon

    https://twitter.com/Maxiim933/status/1520312641025159168

    Replies: @A123

    The scary part is that the footage of Not-The-President Biden is effectively unedited. Only the background has been swapped: (1)

    It is getting worse…. This is not okay. Nothing about this is okay.

    Not-The-VP Harris presents the coup puppeteers with a massive dilemma. The current dribbler is a disaster, but at least it can be denied medication & locked in the occupied White House basement. What would happen if the replacement tried to make policy by herself? That is a risk they cannot take.

    The writers that produced Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister need to tackle this illegitimate White House.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/

    • Replies: @keypusher
    @A123

    And yet Not-the-President and Not-the-Vice-President, idiots though they plainly are, nevertheless are kicking Russia's ass!


    This is just to say that while obviously it would be better for Ukraine — and, frankly, better overall policy — for the West to step up the economic measures against Russia, Russia simply isn’t strong enough to make it genuinely necessary.
     
    https://www.slowboring.com/p/mancur-olson-end-of-history?s=r

    Bizarre, isn't it?
    , @Mikhail
    @A123

    There's also the Biden-Harris porn video:

    https://twitter.com/IFreedom4all/status/1520271421741535232

  306. @S
    @songbird


    Since “gender neutrality” is such a big thing now, I’d suppose that Trudeau would be the doll of he season...
     
    Hehe! That was brutal Songbird.

    Replies: @songbird

    Trudeau is genuinely creepy, IMO. Canada would be better off, if they forced everyone like Trudeau to get a haircut.

  307. @utu
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven't learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those 'German intellectuals' like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:



    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”
     
    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that 'nobody owes anybody anything' and that 'nobody owes Ukraine anything' in particular.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird, @AP, @Dmitry

    German_twat

    Repeatedly using vulgarisms against someone here just makes you seem like a perverted psychopath. It is not the own you think it is.

  308. @AP
    @Beckow


    That’s what I said: the initial demand was to move the border by 30-40 miles away from St.Petersburg. The Karelian Isthmus is very narrow land between Lake Ladoga and Gulf – it overlooked St. Petrersburg, in a war Finland could lob bombs at will. The few tiny islands are specs of land in the St. Petersburg harbour. You make it sound menacing, but it was relatively reasonable.
     
    The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula for 30 years and to permit the Soviets to establish a military base there.

    This is only 86 miles from Helsinki. It is west of Helsinki, very far from the Soviet border.

    :::::::::::::::::

    BTW I heard about the Polish tanks and the process of their procurement, at a bar in Poland a couple weeks ago. I didn't publicly say what was told to me until it became widely known now, nor will I say other things I heard until they become widely known (if they do). But it was nice to get confirmation that it wasn't all just drunken empty boasting.

    Replies: @Beckow, @LatW

    in Poland a couple weeks ago

    That photo you posted of the Patriot missiles there was really cool. Thanks for posting that.

    • Thanks: AP
  309. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    ...The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!
     
    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg. The Hanko peninsula was preserved.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars. When are they finally marching on Moscow? Or at least Minsk or Kaliningrad? Tell them not to forget the horses.

    Replies: @AP

    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg

    1. It proves that you lied as usual when you claimed that Soviet demands were limited to some territory near Leningrad.

    2. Between a large Soviet base only 86 miles west of Helsinki and a Soviet border shifted more from the eastern side Finland would have been much more vulnerable.

    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars.

    Those arms dealers weren’t Poles…what they said about the tanks has been confirmed though.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Are you going psychotic again? Let it go, I was joking about the hot-oven dwellers of Finland.

    By the way, how do you know how "large" the "leased" Soviet base would be? Wouldn't it be extremely vulnerable? More of a target than a threat? Kind of like a Nato base on the Azov See? Those who don't learn from history will repeat it...

  310. S says:
    @AP
    @S


    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.
     
    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @S

    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.

    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse. The UK, particularly England, seems to be deliberately destroying it’s own Anglo-Saxon power base. So the US and UK are weaker in that sense than they were imo.

    In their blinding hubris, some large segments of the US and UK elites and their hangers on may think, even so, that a WWIII with Russia will be a repeat of WWII with Germany, where relatively speaking, the US and UK (though particularly the US) got off a lot lighter than many other countries in regards to damage sustained and casualties incurred.

    That might well change quite a bit this go around. That is what I was getting at. No doubt the elites who thought it would all be ‘a cakewalk’ with Russia would be shocked.

    Some of the upper tier of the US and UK elites seem to know better and are planning accordingly. I think the stories of the extensive blast and radiation proof underground shelters, the kind with a ten year supply of food, water, oxygen, entertainment facilities, etc, built in Southern portions of the globe for the ultra wealthy and powerful, are probably true.

    Anyhow, the US in the last years of the Trump administration increased US internal steel production capabilities and with fracking, has made the US entirely capable of being wholly oil independent from the Mideast and elsewhere. I think this was in preparation for WWIII.

    I think after a relatively short conventional war with Russia (and China, Iran, N Korea, etc,) this war would go nuclear, as long planned.

    What to do?

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    Though certainly more difficult for people in Ukraine and Russia at present, where things are quite a bit ‘hotter’, and seemingly counter-intuitive, I would suggest the same. I would perhaps say different if I thought any of the parties involved were fighting ‘on their terms’, but I don’t see it. I instead see various peoples being manipulated into this war against their own interest, with the objective being ultimately that they be destroyed.

    And pray. And not necessarily in that order.

    • Replies: @AP
    @S


    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse.
     
    There are currently 204 million white Americans, out of a total US population of 330 million (not that non-whites are of zero military value).

    In 1939 the total population of the USA was 131 million. And America's military built up quite a lot compared to 1939. In 1939 the US army had 174,000 soldiers. Today it has 485,00 soldiers. This does not count reserves or national guard.

    UK has 67 million people compared to 46 million in 1939. It's military is probably worse now, though it does have its own nukes.

    USSR had 168 million people in 1939. Russian federation has only 145 million. It is now at war with what had been the second most populous part of the USSR. Its military, though better than it had bee in the 90s, is worse than it had been in 1939. In 1939 the Red Army numbered 1.8 million soldiers. Today's Russia's ground forces numbered 285,000 troops (this does not include national guard or reserves).

    So compared to 1939, Russia is in a much worse position vis a vis the Anglo world in terms of both populations and military might. Not even close.

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.
     
    US and UK should not be directly or openly involved but they should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil (and make clear that once Russia is chased away from Ukraine support will no longer be necessary as the task will have been achieved). Provide what Soviets provided for Vietnam (they gave Vietnam around 400 Migs). Turn Ukraine into a woodchipper for Russian soldiers where Russia will get bloodied for going where it does not belong, until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine. It will thus be completely Russia's choice, how much of its soldiers and expensive equipment it wants to waste. Ukraine and its western-supplied arms aren't going into Russia (except in rare cases on the border, linked to the invasion of Ukraine), Russia is getting its people and equipment wasted in Ukraine in a way that is totally of Russia's choosing.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @S

  311. @utu
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven't learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those 'German intellectuals' like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:



    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”
     
    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that 'nobody owes anybody anything' and that 'nobody owes Ukraine anything' in particular.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird, @AP, @Dmitry

    You are absolutely correct about the German intellectuals and the German state but our German Reader is better than them, he at least supports arming Ukraine.

    • Disagree: utu
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    and the German state
     
    Germany sent Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons almost immediately after the invasion.
    Apparently things like this as well:
    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1518681654562369544
    They've also sent Patriot batteries to Slovakia, so Slovakia will send its S-300 system to Ukraine, and similar arrangements are planned with Slovenia and T-72-like tanks. And now they're even intending to send German Gepard anti-air tanks to Ukraine.
    imo this entire "Germany isn't supporting Ukraine at all, yet financing Russia's war" narrative is nothing more than a fairly cynical media campaign.

    Replies: @AP

  312. @AP
    @Beckow


    …The Finns would also have to lease the Hanko Peninsula!!!

    Tragic, how could they agree to it? And a 30-year lease, no less. Now you convinced me, it was worth for Finland to lose 100k soldiers and Vyborg
     

    1. It proves that you lied as usual when you claimed that Soviet demands were limited to some territory near Leningrad.

    2. Between a large Soviet base only 86 miles west of Helsinki and a Soviet border shifted more from the eastern side Finland would have been much more vulnerable.


    Tell us more what the drunk Poles are saying in bars.
     
    Those arms dealers weren't Poles...what they said about the tanks has been confirmed though.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Are you going psychotic again? Let it go, I was joking about the hot-oven dwellers of Finland.

    By the way, how do you know how “large” the “leased” Soviet base would be? Wouldn’t it be extremely vulnerable? More of a target than a threat? Kind of like a Nato base on the Azov See? Those who don’t learn from history will repeat it…

  313. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader


    There’s a difference between giving Ukraine weapons so the entire country isn’t subjugated, and going on a crusade with overthrowing Putin as the end goal and expelling Russia even from Crimea and even the parts of Donbass held before February (areas whose inhabitants you’ve called a liability for Ukraine yourself in the past).
     
    You aren't using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    You aren’t using your imagination. These bastards are such sick bastards they are giving Ukraine weapons to increase the max carnage. Nobody in power gives one bloody booger if all of Ukraine, Kiev, Lvov is obliterated.

    Again, the purpose of the WEF Elites is the maximization is MENA refugees flows. Infidel Ukrainians & Russians are 100% expendable. Kiev, Sebastopol, Lviv, Sochi… if they fall to carnage that is an acceptable price for making the EU less European.

    I know that neither side’s partisans want to hear it, but the TRUTH is the TRUTH. The fighting between Ukraine & Russia was deliberately engineered from the outside. It is a relatively tiny piece of a much larger struggle.

    PEACE 😇

  314. @A123
    @Beckow


    Large parts of the world would be dysfunctional even if they survived.
     
    Large parts of America are already dysfunctional.

    In a nuclear war the most densely populated and concentrated populations would be most at risk, ...
     
    Blue Cities !
        Blue States !!
           Blue Cities in Blue States !!!

    Davos people get their wish
     
    Is it too late for MAGA to start using a Phoenix rather than a Lion?

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://twt-thumbs.washtimes.com/media/image/2017/08/30/8_302017_b4-guld-phoenix-ris8201_c0-180-866-684_s885x516.jpg?0364a45a1256f9694b52c67e423ff6623c0a8a2c

    Replies: @Beckow

    There are levels of dysfunction. You are right, since the ruling liberalism is concentrated everywhere in the biggest cities, a nuclear war would – among other things – move the political spectrum dramatically to the conservative side. Now, there is a thought…

    • LOL: A123
  315. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @utu

    You are absolutely correct about the German intellectuals and the German state but our German Reader is better than them, he at least supports arming Ukraine.

    Replies: @German_reader

    and the German state

    Germany sent Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons almost immediately after the invasion.
    Apparently things like this as well:


    They’ve also sent Patriot batteries to Slovakia, so Slovakia will send its S-300 system to Ukraine, and similar arrangements are planned with Slovenia and T-72-like tanks. And now they’re even intending to send German Gepard anti-air tanks to Ukraine.
    imo this entire “Germany isn’t supporting Ukraine at all, yet financing Russia’s war” narrative is nothing more than a fairly cynical media campaign.

    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader

    Germany has been very slow and helpful mostly under extreme pressure. Not 100% useless but barely and grudgingly helpful, compared to the Eastern Europeans, Anglos, Scandinavians, etc. I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    But Germany is better now. Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    Replies: @German_reader

  316. @S
    @AP



    The US and UK are not the same nations they were in 1940, however, and things might not go quite as they’ve originally planned.

     

    Russia is much weaker relative to the USSR of 1939 than the USA is it to the USA of 1939. Setting aside the late and post Soviet era decay, Russia is only about half of the USSR.
     
    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse. The UK, particularly England, seems to be deliberately destroying it's own Anglo-Saxon power base. So the US and UK are weaker in that sense than they were imo.

    In their blinding hubris, some large segments of the US and UK elites and their hangers on may think, even so, that a WWIII with Russia will be a repeat of WWII with Germany, where relatively speaking, the US and UK (though particularly the US) got off a lot lighter than many other countries in regards to damage sustained and casualties incurred.

    That might well change quite a bit this go around. That is what I was getting at. No doubt the elites who thought it would all be 'a cakewalk' with Russia would be shocked.

    Some of the upper tier of the US and UK elites seem to know better and are planning accordingly. I think the stories of the extensive blast and radiation proof underground shelters, the kind with a ten year supply of food, water, oxygen, entertainment facilities, etc, built in Southern portions of the globe for the ultra wealthy and powerful, are probably true.

    Anyhow, the US in the last years of the Trump administration increased US internal steel production capabilities and with fracking, has made the US entirely capable of being wholly oil independent from the Mideast and elsewhere. I think this was in preparation for WWIII.

    I think after a relatively short conventional war with Russia (and China, Iran, N Korea, etc,) this war would go nuclear, as long planned.

    What to do?

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    Though certainly more difficult for people in Ukraine and Russia at present, where things are quite a bit 'hotter', and seemingly counter-intuitive, I would suggest the same. I would perhaps say different if I thought any of the parties involved were fighting 'on their terms', but I don't see it. I instead see various peoples being manipulated into this war against their own interest, with the objective being ultimately that they be destroyed.

    And pray. And not necessarily in that order.

    Replies: @AP

    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse.

    There are currently 204 million white Americans, out of a total US population of 330 million (not that non-whites are of zero military value).

    In 1939 the total population of the USA was 131 million. And America’s military built up quite a lot compared to 1939. In 1939 the US army had 174,000 soldiers. Today it has 485,00 soldiers. This does not count reserves or national guard.

    UK has 67 million people compared to 46 million in 1939. It’s military is probably worse now, though it does have its own nukes.

    USSR had 168 million people in 1939. Russian federation has only 145 million. It is now at war with what had been the second most populous part of the USSR. Its military, though better than it had bee in the 90s, is worse than it had been in 1939. In 1939 the Red Army numbered 1.8 million soldiers. Today’s Russia’s ground forces numbered 285,000 troops (this does not include national guard or reserves).

    So compared to 1939, Russia is in a much worse position vis a vis the Anglo world in terms of both populations and military might. Not even close.

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.

    US and UK should not be directly or openly involved but they should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil (and make clear that once Russia is chased away from Ukraine support will no longer be necessary as the task will have been achieved). Provide what Soviets provided for Vietnam (they gave Vietnam around 400 Migs). Turn Ukraine into a woodchipper for Russian soldiers where Russia will get bloodied for going where it does not belong, until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine. It will thus be completely Russia’s choice, how much of its soldiers and expensive equipment it wants to waste. Ukraine and its western-supplied arms aren’t going into Russia (except in rare cases on the border, linked to the invasion of Ukraine), Russia is getting its people and equipment wasted in Ukraine in a way that is totally of Russia’s choosing.

    • Disagree: S
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @AP


    until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine.
     
    Putin will grab the cheget with the other hand and aim it at the one setting up the woodchipper. Same with any attempt on his monopoly on power. Shoigu is now too meek to stop the orders, and the post can be replaced until Putin finds a yesman.

    Brandon will do whatever he's told, but Blinken and every neocon in the Pentagon still have a sense of self-preservation.

    , @S
    @AP

    In general I find your posts quite intelligent and insightful. I'm sympathetic to both your Ukrainian people, and their aspirations, and the Russian people, in this almost impossible situation.

    It's the context of the entire thing.

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don't even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I don't think they can.

    The US/UK 'cares' about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief 'cares' about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    I wish it were not so and it pains me to say these things.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it's monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state, a state which with its wage slave (ie 'cheap labor') 'immigrant' as it's centerpiece closely parallels the chattel slave holding society it evolved from in many ways.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on 'cared' more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people. Specifically, they cared about the financial value of the labor they were systematically stealing from their wage slaves by grossly under paying them for it.

    This is the economic/political system your Ukrainian government is plugging into.

    Lastly, not to compare specifics but rather the concept, there was a 1971 movie called Murphy's War starring Peter O'toole as 'Murphy', a man employed on an isolated Carribean island in 1945.

    Murphy, with some cause, has a hatred of Germans. Though the war has just ended, he, even so, continues to hunt a German sub which has been lurking in the island's immediate vicinity with a float plane, a floating crane, and a live torpedo he has scrounged.

    Ultimately, Murphy corners and sinks the German sub, but also kills himself in the process.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/92/Murphy%27s_War_Poster.jpeg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_War

    Replies: @AP, @Triteleia Laxa

  317. @Pixo
    @sudden death

    NatGas policy since the invasion is stupid on both sides.

    Expensively rerouting gas is negative sum and should stop.

    If the West wants to reduce Russia’s power from gas exports, it has to reduce domestic consumption or increase production.

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    Russia’s poor war performance may be linked to its resource curse: domestic wages are so high from resource exports they cannot compete in other industries, letting their defense sector that used to supply half the world stagnate then decline.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @sudden death, @A123, @Daniel H

    Similarly “you must pay in rubles” is dumb symbolism.

    How is it dumb? And the strategy seems to be more than symbolic. By forcing gas/oil importers to pay for Russian gas/oil in Rubles Russia is compelling the west to sell products to Russia, products (advanced technology) that the west at this moment would rather not sell to Russia. “You want Rubles? We will give you Rubles, but sell us those advanced industrial controllers, chip manufacturing infrastructure, etc that we will pay for with Rubles…” Seems like a smart move by Russia. Why accept payment in US dollars when the US state will end up stealing it anyway? What do I know about economics, though.

  318. @Yellowface Anon
    @Pixo

    Hasn't Cyprus (EU member) and Switzerland followed EU sanctions and proceeded to seized all the wealth on their soil? Singapore too in SE Asia.

    Replies: @Pixo

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Pixo


    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.
     
    As a general rule, it is the reverse. The EU 'sanctions' are extreme but unenforceable. The bulk of Europe is quietly ignoring or openly repudiating EU overreach.

    There are individual nations (e.g. Germany, Poland) working against European norms. They have more extreme policy than even the anti-European EU. However, it is focused on quashing internal actors.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Pixo

    Doesn't EU coordinate the sanctions?

  319. @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    As a general rule, it is the reverse. The EU ‘sanctions’ are extreme but unenforceable. The bulk of Europe is quietly ignoring or openly repudiating EU overreach.

    There are individual nations (e.g. Germany, Poland) working against European norms. They have more extreme policy than even the anti-European EU. However, it is focused on quashing internal actors.

    PEACE 😇

  320. @AP
    @German_reader


    Justice is in a factor in international relations now?
     
    It should be, and arming Ukraine in order to punish a bloody invasion is just. It also happens to be convenient for the West. A cheap javelin or stinger taking out an expensive Russian helicopter or tank is a good return on investment. It's a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival. So it's a rare case when justice and American interests coincide (World War II was another case; most other wars such as World War I were not).

    What isn’t sensible is going for ever more extreme aims like sending Putin to The Hague, permanently destroying Russia as a geopolitical factor and making any settlement conditional on Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity.
     
    I don't disagree. But who knows what the consequences of Russia's crime will be. If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.*

    If as a result Ukraine gets armed so well and Russia’s military gets degraded so much that Ukraine makes further gains into its internationally recognized territory (including Crimea and Donbas)

    Hard no. If Western policy-makers have even an ounce of sense left, they’ll tell Ukraine not to even try anything regarding Crimea and threaten withdrawal of support if Ukraine still does so
     
    Again, I don't disagree. Ukraine should be maximally supported as long as Russia is in its territory and until it is able to throw the Russians out of the February borders, for its own sake as well as for the sake of peace. But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can't stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it's an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade. *

    Ukraine helped end the USSR and got rid of its huge nuclear stockpile.

    That’s laughable bs, and you know it. The only thing that mattered were Gorbashev’s decisions, and
     
    Ukraine's decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR (just as Polish stubbornness helped end the Warsaw Pact).

    Ukraine couldn’t have used the nukes it had anyway, so giving them up wasn’t a meaningful sacrifice.
     
    You really think Ukraine's engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?

    *Just to be clear, I think the possibility of this happening is very unlikely, though not completely impossible

    Replies: @German_reader, @utu, @Mr. Hack

    Great reply! For a moment, I thought that I was reading a reply that I had wrote. 🙂 You really took off the gloves for this reply, and of all people it had to be German_ Reader (a commenter that we both respect here) that was on the opposing end. The exploits of the Ukrainian military must be inspiring you.

    • Thanks: AP
    • LOL: Mikhail
  321. @German_reader
    @AP


    and the German state
     
    Germany sent Stinger missiles and anti-tank weapons almost immediately after the invasion.
    Apparently things like this as well:
    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1518681654562369544
    They've also sent Patriot batteries to Slovakia, so Slovakia will send its S-300 system to Ukraine, and similar arrangements are planned with Slovenia and T-72-like tanks. And now they're even intending to send German Gepard anti-air tanks to Ukraine.
    imo this entire "Germany isn't supporting Ukraine at all, yet financing Russia's war" narrative is nothing more than a fairly cynical media campaign.

    Replies: @AP

    Germany has been very slow and helpful mostly under extreme pressure. Not 100% useless but barely and grudgingly helpful, compared to the Eastern Europeans, Anglos, Scandinavians, etc. I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    But Germany is better now. Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.
     
    That was before the invasion, and the latter part is just speculation. My impression is there was a general expectation Ukraine would fold quickly. US evacuated its diplomats, and all the talk was about supporting a guerrilla movement after a Russian invasion and occupation, not a regular war effort like now.

    Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.
     
    That's true, but apart from political considerations there's also the simple fact that Germany's military is in a run-down state, e.g. they've got only about 100 of those armoured howitzers 2000. I suppose Germany could spare some, but this will also reduce Germany's ability even more to react to any contingency.
  322. @German_reader
    @AP


    It’s a very rare opportunity, perhaps once in a generation, to cheaply degrade the military of a major rival.
     
    I admit there's a certain logic to that and I won't pretend to be sad that so many Russians have been killed in Ukraine. However, I disagree with the idea of keeping the war going just to weaken Russia. If (and of course that's a big if, who knows what's going on in Putin's head by now) there's a chance to reach a negotiated settlement which leaves Ukraine in full sovereignty over the territory it held before February, one should pursue it.
    I also don't think that Russia has been purely hostile towards the West over the last 20 years, on some issues like Afghanistan/Islamists in Central Asia or the nuclear issue with Iran there was at least some constructive cooperation. Of course the chance for such cooperation may be irreversibly gone now, but from my pov that isn't a positive development.

    If Russia stumbles so hard that Ukraine is able to take more than it had in February, such is the price of invasion.
     
    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I'm unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    But if Russia somehow destroys its military so much that it can’t stop Ukraine from moving further, even without future Western support, well it’s an unintended consequence of its own choice to invade.
     
    Ok, if you phrase it like that... But all that is hypothetical for now anyway.

    Ukraine’s decision to go independent sealed the doom of the USSR
     
    tbh I don't see why that should matter much to most Europeans or Americans, by then Germany had been re-unified and the Soviets had already allowed Poles, Czechs and other Warsaw Pact members to go their own way.

    You really think Ukraine’s engineers and scientists would never have been able to make those nukes usable for Ukraine? Or to make their own nukes after not having signed a nonproliferation agreement?
     
    Given Ukraine's economic and other internal problems this doesn't strike me as a realistic possibility.
    See here:
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0043820016673777

    Moreover, establishing operational control over the existing missiles on Ukraine’s territory still would have left Ukraine with a problem of how to replace them once their service life expired, as Ukraine lacked some of the key elements of a nuclear weapons program. These elements included uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities to fabricate nuclear fuel, as well as nuclear warhead production and nuclear—and missile—testing ranges. This is not even to mention the more sophisticated elements essential for making Ukraine’s deterrent against Russia’s giant nuclear forces survivable and credible, such as the early warning system, the geodetic data from satellites necessary for accurate targeting, as well as extensive research, production, and maintenance facilities necessary for ongoing nuclear force modernization (for a more detailed discussion see Kincade 1993).

    Thus, after bringing upon itself the wrath of the civilized world, and possibly a retaliatory action from Russia, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in a nuclear weapons program, the cost of which the Ukrainian government estimated at a minimum of $2 billion. Those who remember the early 1990s in Ukraine will agree that, for a country ravaged by hyperinflation and the severe economic crisis of a post-Soviet transition, such an investment would have been prohibitive. Indeed, some in Russia thought that American insistence on Ukraine’s quick denuclearization was misguided. For instance, Vitaliy Kataev, a senior representative of the Soviet, then Russian, military industrial complex, argued that Ukraine should be left alone with its ICBMs and made to carry the cost of maintaining and eventually disposing of them as their service life expired toward the end of the 1990s (Kataev 1994, 3). By that time, he maintained, Ukrainians would come begging that Russia and the West take these missiles off their hands.
     

    Also here:
    https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/02/06/could-ukraine-have-retained-soviet-nuclear-weapons/

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.

    It’s a long ways to go to get to this point, and if the Ukrainian military were really to push the Russians this far back, I think somebody else in Russia would need to start looking at eliminating Putin. Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around. If the war goes another 4-6 months, Russia’s economy will really start to feel all of the negative effects of the economic sanctions, it will become really messed up.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around.
     
    Problem is that Putin seems to be a true autocrat, much more powerful (at least domestically) than the rulers of the Soviet Union after Stalin. There doesn't seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement like happened with Khrushchev. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he's saying.

    Replies: @A123

  323. Interesting thread, especially about the economic effects of the Black sea blockade:

  324. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @German_reader

    Germany has been very slow and helpful mostly under extreme pressure. Not 100% useless but barely and grudgingly helpful, compared to the Eastern Europeans, Anglos, Scandinavians, etc. I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    But Germany is better now. Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I remember how at the beginning the arms shipments to Ukraine all had to avoid German airspace, and how Germany was blocking other countries from sending German-made equipment to Ukraine. The German state was probably hoping Ukraine would have been finished off quickly so business as usual could be resumed.

    That was before the invasion, and the latter part is just speculation. My impression is there was a general expectation Ukraine would fold quickly. US evacuated its diplomats, and all the talk was about supporting a guerrilla movement after a Russian invasion and occupation, not a regular war effort like now.

    Though even those Gepards aren’t scheduled to be sent for a couple more months IIRC.

    That’s true, but apart from political considerations there’s also the simple fact that Germany’s military is in a run-down state, e.g. they’ve got only about 100 of those armoured howitzers 2000. I suppose Germany could spare some, but this will also reduce Germany’s ability even more to react to any contingency.

  325. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader


    If we lived in a world without nuclear weapons, one could view it like that with equanimity, but I’m unwilling to dismiss the risk of a defeated Putin retaliating with nuclear weapons and taking much of the West down with him.
     
    It's a long ways to go to get to this point, and if the Ukrainian military were really to push the Russians this far back, I think somebody else in Russia would need to start looking at eliminating Putin. Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around. If the war goes another 4-6 months, Russia's economy will really start to feel all of the negative effects of the economic sanctions, it will become really messed up.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around.

    Problem is that Putin seems to be a true autocrat, much more powerful (at least domestically) than the rulers of the Soviet Union after Stalin. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement like happened with Khrushchev. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes... That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Matra, @Mr. Hack

  326. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Things would go much more smoothly on Russia at any negotiating table without Putin around.
     
    Problem is that Putin seems to be a true autocrat, much more powerful (at least domestically) than the rulers of the Soviet Union after Stalin. There doesn't seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement like happened with Khrushchev. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he's saying.

    Replies: @A123

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    • Disagree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    BTW, I did read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    One was a sentence that was part of a stream of consciousness that could have as easily been cut, without the reader noticing:
    "Dragger suck." As an invective the term had all of the impact of several historical terms-Quisling, heretic, fag, nigger-lover, all rolled into one.

    The other was that, at the end of the story, the main character gets super-cucked by returning to the planet he had been stranded on, getting super old (or so I interpreted, from the reference "withered knees"), raising a line of aliens that he had first met in battle.

    If I had to criticize the work, I would say that the lessons of the Drac about the importance of lineage didn't seem to carry over to the main character. But, I don't know, maybe, the author intended that as a negative commentary on his character's rootless upbringing.

    Quick read.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Matra
    @A123


    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition
     
    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals ever had to answer for their atrocities? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? NATO's support for Ukraine means the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    If you are on Telegram, which unlike all other social media is not censored by the NATO libtards & communists, you've seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs. The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles right after the Second World War. Shame on Poland for supporting such atrocities. Unfortunately, I have little faith these Ukrainian war criminals will be brought to justice as the Russian leadership itself doesn't seem to give a shit about its soldiers, who appear to have been sent to fight with one arm tied behind their backs. Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth who are responsible for this war, and almost all the other wars of the last three decades, but I doubt it as Putin appears to be a typically unimaginative boomer conservatard.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    , @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.
     
    Why would anybody want to send Zelensky off to retirement? He's been courageous as a leader, helping his people through this hard time with optimism and hope for a sovereign country with inviolable borders, everything that Putler has spit on. Your undying sympathy for the Russian side squarely put you within the camp of kremlin stooges. Your antics here in support of Putler's war is getting old and tedious, as is your next statement:

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?
     
    Can you name even one casualty of Ukrainian war crimes aimed at Crimean civilians? Even one??
  327. @A123
    @German_reader

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes... That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Matra, @Mr. Hack

    BTW, I did read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    [MORE]

    One was a sentence that was part of a stream of consciousness that could have as easily been cut, without the reader noticing:
    “Dragger suck.” As an invective the term had all of the impact of several historical terms-Quisling, heretic, fag, nigger-lover, all rolled into one.

    The other was that, at the end of the story, the main character gets super-cucked by returning to the planet he had been stranded on, getting super old (or so I interpreted, from the reference “withered knees”), raising a line of aliens that he had first met in battle.

    If I had to criticize the work, I would say that the lessons of the Drac about the importance of lineage didn’t seem to carry over to the main character. But, I don’t know, maybe, the author intended that as a negative commentary on his character’s rootless upbringing.

    Quick read.

    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird


    read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:
     
    George R.R. Martin has been Labour/Left long before such a stance became popular in the U.S. The occasional throw away line use to be easily ignorable. Enemy Mine was published in the 70's.

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story's lineage.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  328. @AP
    @S


    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse.
     
    There are currently 204 million white Americans, out of a total US population of 330 million (not that non-whites are of zero military value).

    In 1939 the total population of the USA was 131 million. And America's military built up quite a lot compared to 1939. In 1939 the US army had 174,000 soldiers. Today it has 485,00 soldiers. This does not count reserves or national guard.

    UK has 67 million people compared to 46 million in 1939. It's military is probably worse now, though it does have its own nukes.

    USSR had 168 million people in 1939. Russian federation has only 145 million. It is now at war with what had been the second most populous part of the USSR. Its military, though better than it had bee in the 90s, is worse than it had been in 1939. In 1939 the Red Army numbered 1.8 million soldiers. Today's Russia's ground forces numbered 285,000 troops (this does not include national guard or reserves).

    So compared to 1939, Russia is in a much worse position vis a vis the Anglo world in terms of both populations and military might. Not even close.

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.
     
    US and UK should not be directly or openly involved but they should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil (and make clear that once Russia is chased away from Ukraine support will no longer be necessary as the task will have been achieved). Provide what Soviets provided for Vietnam (they gave Vietnam around 400 Migs). Turn Ukraine into a woodchipper for Russian soldiers where Russia will get bloodied for going where it does not belong, until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine. It will thus be completely Russia's choice, how much of its soldiers and expensive equipment it wants to waste. Ukraine and its western-supplied arms aren't going into Russia (except in rare cases on the border, linked to the invasion of Ukraine), Russia is getting its people and equipment wasted in Ukraine in a way that is totally of Russia's choosing.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @S

    until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine.

    Putin will grab the cheget with the other hand and aim it at the one setting up the woodchipper. Same with any attempt on his monopoly on power. Shoigu is now too meek to stop the orders, and the post can be replaced until Putin finds a yesman.

    Brandon will do whatever he’s told, but Blinken and every neocon in the Pentagon still have a sense of self-preservation.

  329. @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    I believe the official EU actions against Russia are minimal and it is the national-level sanctions that go much further.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    Doesn’t EU coordinate the sanctions?

  330. S says:
    @AP
    @S


    Thanks, AP. I should clarify, however, what I meant about the US and the UK not being the same as in 1940.

    The demographics for the US are of course quite different now. I think for the worse.
     
    There are currently 204 million white Americans, out of a total US population of 330 million (not that non-whites are of zero military value).

    In 1939 the total population of the USA was 131 million. And America's military built up quite a lot compared to 1939. In 1939 the US army had 174,000 soldiers. Today it has 485,00 soldiers. This does not count reserves or national guard.

    UK has 67 million people compared to 46 million in 1939. It's military is probably worse now, though it does have its own nukes.

    USSR had 168 million people in 1939. Russian federation has only 145 million. It is now at war with what had been the second most populous part of the USSR. Its military, though better than it had bee in the 90s, is worse than it had been in 1939. In 1939 the Red Army numbered 1.8 million soldiers. Today's Russia's ground forces numbered 285,000 troops (this does not include national guard or reserves).

    So compared to 1939, Russia is in a much worse position vis a vis the Anglo world in terms of both populations and military might. Not even close.

    First and foremost, people in the US and UK, ie the Anglosphere, where much of this is emanating from, should refuse and stand down in regards to any support for this war.
     
    US and UK should not be directly or openly involved but they should provide maximum assistance to Ukraine as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil (and make clear that once Russia is chased away from Ukraine support will no longer be necessary as the task will have been achieved). Provide what Soviets provided for Vietnam (they gave Vietnam around 400 Migs). Turn Ukraine into a woodchipper for Russian soldiers where Russia will get bloodied for going where it does not belong, until Russia chooses to pull its hand out of the machine. It will thus be completely Russia's choice, how much of its soldiers and expensive equipment it wants to waste. Ukraine and its western-supplied arms aren't going into Russia (except in rare cases on the border, linked to the invasion of Ukraine), Russia is getting its people and equipment wasted in Ukraine in a way that is totally of Russia's choosing.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @S

    In general I find your posts quite intelligent and insightful. I’m sympathetic to both your Ukrainian people, and their aspirations, and the Russian people, in this almost impossible situation.

    It’s the context of the entire thing.

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I don’t think they can.

    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    I wish it were not so and it pains me to say these things.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state, a state which with its wage slave (ie ‘cheap labor’) ‘immigrant’ as it’s centerpiece closely parallels the chattel slave holding society it evolved from in many ways.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people. Specifically, they cared about the financial value of the labor they were systematically stealing from their wage slaves by grossly under paying them for it.

    This is the economic/political system your Ukrainian government is plugging into.

    Lastly, not to compare specifics but rather the concept, there was a 1971 movie called Murphy’s War starring Peter O’toole as ‘Murphy’, a man employed on an isolated Carribean island in 1945.

    Murphy, with some cause, has a hatred of Germans. Though the war has just ended, he, even so, continues to hunt a German sub which has been lurking in the island’s immediate vicinity with a float plane, a floating crane, and a live torpedo he has scrounged.

    Ultimately, Murphy corners and sinks the German sub, but also kills himself in the process.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_War

    • Replies: @AP
    @S


    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?
     
    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the "WASP" elite.

    You're being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/English2000.png

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.


    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.
     
    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia's victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu's observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia's victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it's an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.


    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.
     
    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state
     
    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    Replies: @German_reader, @S, @216

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @S

    Your argument here is the reductio ad absurdum of the "dissident right."

    "If someone doesn't care about the Great Replacement theory, then they therefore care about nothing and are hateful and nihilistic and cynical and corrupt."

    Well the vast majority of people don't care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don't, and many of them are very loving and caring individuals who just don't conform to your ideological worldview.

    It is tough, but them not caring about the one thing you've managed to learn to care about, does not make them sociopaths.

    Really, you can do a lot better and be infinitely more effective for your cause, our cause, by actually thinking deeply and developing an understanding of other people and not just relying on such trash simplifications.

    Improve yourself man!

    Replies: @songbird

  331. @Sean
    @Ron Unz


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29114378

    Powell also developed something of an obsession with what he believed was American influence over British policy towards Northern Ireland:

    "This obsession was partly caused by his possession of a State Department policy statement (from August 1950) that argued 'it is desirable that Ireland should be integrated into the defence planning of the North Atlantic area, for its strategic position and present lack of defensive capacity are matters of significance'. Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford,"
     

    Neave was the eminence griseistrimental in the rise of Margaret Thatcher

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford.

    Very interesting. I’m extremely skeptical of that possibility, so Powell seems more delusional than I’d realized.

    • Replies: @Matra
    @Ron Unz

    I'm originally from N Ireland and have relatives who've been in both the highest levels of government security and one paramilitary (ie.terrorist) organisation. Nobody who lives there takes seriously these accusations of US involvement in these killings. Carrying out an assassination in Ireland of a political rival is almost comically easy when compared to the US or Britain. Powell was always like a fish out of water in Ulster. He never really understood the place, including his own voters.

    Replies: @Sean

  332. Matra says:
    @A123
    @German_reader

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes... That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Matra, @Mr. Hack

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition

    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals ever had to answer for their atrocities? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? NATO’s support for Ukraine means the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    If you are on Telegram, which unlike all other social media is not censored by the NATO libtards & communists, you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs. The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles right after the Second World War. Shame on Poland for supporting such atrocities. Unfortunately, I have little faith these Ukrainian war criminals will be brought to justice as the Russian leadership itself doesn’t seem to give a shit about its soldiers, who appear to have been sent to fight with one arm tied behind their backs. Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth who are responsible for this war, and almost all the other wars of the last three decades, but I doubt it as Putin appears to be a typically unimaginative boomer conservatard.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Matra


    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    Telling that you are less concerned about the crimes committed by those POWs and their compatriots against civilians in the place they have invaded. I guess you identify more with Russian soldiers who invade a country and rape and murder civilians there, than with the victims' outraged compatriots. Old fashioned values of yours?

    The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles
     
    So you equate Russian rapist-and-murderer-soldiers killed today, with Polish women and children murdered in the 1940s. Nice glimpse into your morality.

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians. It was far more than the number of Polish civilians murdered by Ukrainians. And while all of these murders were unjustified, yours were even less so. It was just a dirty century, few had clean hands and yours were dirtier.

    But, as you have demonstrated, you identify with killers of children as long as they are in uniformed armed forces.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader

    , @A123
    @Matra


    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals
     
    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase "American-aligned" is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so "EU-aligned" and "Europe-aligned" are 180° opposed positions.


    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth
     
    Putin has few options to directly attack "anti-American WEF/SJW filth". Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.


    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.
    ...
    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of "body dumps" around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government's targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification "no one died", thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of "non-lethal" collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational "recognizing the crime" or mentally ill "denying the undeniable", the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP, @sudden death

  333. Matra says:
    @Ron Unz
    @Sean


    Powell went as far as claiming that the CIA was responsible for the deaths of Lord Mountbatten, Airey Neave and Robert Bradford.
     
    Very interesting. I'm extremely skeptical of that possibility, so Powell seems more delusional than I'd realized.

    Replies: @Matra

    I’m originally from N Ireland and have relatives who’ve been in both the highest levels of government security and one paramilitary (ie.terrorist) organisation. Nobody who lives there takes seriously these accusations of US involvement in these killings. Carrying out an assassination in Ireland of a political rival is almost comically easy when compared to the US or Britain. Powell was always like a fish out of water in Ulster. He never really understood the place, including his own voters.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Matra

    Airey Neave was killed in the House of Commons underground car park, not Coalisland and Powell was not without contacts in the security services. The ex deputy head of MI6 for example. The post Brexit current problems over the status of Northern Ireland show that Powell understood the issues in that Province rather well, better that the people who lived there one might say. Powell was the original Briexiteer, and his ideal of complete integration of NI into the UK was shared by the Official Unionist leader. Integration of NI into the UK was the lost dangerous veiw to hold in NI, and if I recall correctly one Unionist who tried to participate in elections as a an official British Conservative Party candidate was proptly murdered. On a trip to Dublin Paisley once talked to reporters of NI joining the Republic if there were certain guarantees. Powell understood an undercovers unification was what the NI Office policy was, and implacably opposed it. And he also knew that since Suez the British Civil Service echoed what the American view was and America wanted the EU as an adjunct to Nato. There is a lot uncertain about who was actually running the INLA, it certainly was not just Dominic McGlinchey, whatever Tim Pat Coogan credulously wrote. The targeting of their assasinination may well have had American conections

    In 1949 Powell wrote an article entitled ' The Atomic Bomb May Not Be Used'. He was also dubious about the Russian army being all that effective, and certain that Germany thought Russia had no intention of trying to conquer Western Europe. Powell saw Germany as power mad, it does not seem to be but it is cocooned within Nato so is a defence freeloaders while economically a powerhouse getting access to th US market as vallied ''ally" (ditto Japan, NK and Taiwan).


    Powell speech from 1971


    We shall not, I presume, be told that the EEC is the transitional stage towards a political unit which would include Russia. I confess to insurmountable personal difficulty in imagining a political unit – ‘family’, the bishop called it – from the North Cape to Sicily, from the Shannon to the Elbe; but only a lunatic could imagine a political unit from the Shannon to Vladivostock. No; the answer we receive is that a politically united Western Europe will be more capable of waging war successfully with Russia and her allies and therefore arguably is less likely to be involved in it.

    [...]. On the other hand, if Germany is to be reunified, the most dangerous form of that reunification would be the addition, if it could be imagined, of East Germany to a politically unified Western Europe, presenting to the East the spectacle and prospect of a huge power confronting and threatening it. This would be all the more so, if that politically united Western Europe already included the British Isles. It follows that, if Germany’s future is the apprehended danger to the peace of Europe, that danger is not diminished but enhanced by the Community as an instrument of political unification...
     
    In 1993 Yeltsin was attempting to get Russia accepted into the procedure for joining Nato, and officially asked President Clinton for a halt of expansion of Nato eastwards as a breach of at least the spirit of the 1990 treaty ending the Cold War. Yeltsin got the runaround on both counts; he then choose as his successor certain V. Putin.
  334. @A123
    @German_reader

    Let me Fix That For You;

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes... That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition. However, as a purely practical matter, they will not be allowed to hold an offensive strong point.

    The middle east provides an exact parallel. Violent Islam misused the Golan to commit War Crimes against indigenous Palestinian Jews. To defend the Jewish population, Judaism refused to allow kill frenzy Jihadists to hold the Golan. Russia finds itself in a similar position after being unfairly molested by its extremely violent Ukrainian neighbor.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird, @Matra, @Mr. Hack

    Problem is that *Zelensky* seems to be a true autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any institution capable of sending him off to retirement. Which is of course pretty scary, because he might be genuinely unhinged by now if he really believes what he’s saying.

    Why would anybody want to send Zelensky off to retirement? He’s been courageous as a leader, helping his people through this hard time with optimism and hope for a sovereign country with inviolable borders, everything that Putler has spit on. Your undying sympathy for the Russian side squarely put you within the camp of kremlin stooges. Your antics here in support of Putler’s war is getting old and tedious, as is your next statement:

    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    Can you name even one casualty of Ukrainian war crimes aimed at Crimean civilians? Even one??

  335. AP says:
    @Matra
    @A123


    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition
     
    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals ever had to answer for their atrocities? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? NATO's support for Ukraine means the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    If you are on Telegram, which unlike all other social media is not censored by the NATO libtards & communists, you've seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs. The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles right after the Second World War. Shame on Poland for supporting such atrocities. Unfortunately, I have little faith these Ukrainian war criminals will be brought to justice as the Russian leadership itself doesn't seem to give a shit about its soldiers, who appear to have been sent to fight with one arm tied behind their backs. Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth who are responsible for this war, and almost all the other wars of the last three decades, but I doubt it as Putin appears to be a typically unimaginative boomer conservatard.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.

    Telling that you are less concerned about the crimes committed by those POWs and their compatriots against civilians in the place they have invaded. I guess you identify more with Russian soldiers who invade a country and rape and murder civilians there, than with the victims’ outraged compatriots. Old fashioned values of yours?

    The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles

    So you equate Russian rapist-and-murderer-soldiers killed today, with Polish women and children murdered in the 1940s. Nice glimpse into your morality.

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians. It was far more than the number of Polish civilians murdered by Ukrainians. And while all of these murders were unjustified, yours were even less so. It was just a dirty century, few had clean hands and yours were dirtier.

    But, as you have demonstrated, you identify with killers of children as long as they are in uniformed armed forces.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @AP

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine's name.

    Replies: @A123, @Pixo

    , @German_reader
    @AP


    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians.
     
    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did. Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference), but it also was a distanced form of killing, and risky for the air crews (50 000 from Bomber command killed in action). So I don't think you should make that comparison, because it's far from clear it's to the benefit of Ukrainians.
    I don't agree with Matra on the current issue, Russia is the aggressor and it seems pretty clear that Russian troops have committed appalling war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, so Russia is vastly more in the wrong. However, I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating. A lot of the "stand with Ukraine" normie shitlibs seem to believe America and her allies are a pure force for good in the world, which imo is neither true from a left-wing or liberal perpective nor from a nationalist one like mine.

    Replies: @AP

  336. @AP
    @Matra


    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    Telling that you are less concerned about the crimes committed by those POWs and their compatriots against civilians in the place they have invaded. I guess you identify more with Russian soldiers who invade a country and rape and murder civilians there, than with the victims' outraged compatriots. Old fashioned values of yours?

    The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles
     
    So you equate Russian rapist-and-murderer-soldiers killed today, with Polish women and children murdered in the 1940s. Nice glimpse into your morality.

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians. It was far more than the number of Polish civilians murdered by Ukrainians. And while all of these murders were unjustified, yours were even less so. It was just a dirty century, few had clean hands and yours were dirtier.

    But, as you have demonstrated, you identify with killers of children as long as they are in uniformed armed forces.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Yellowface Anon


    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.
     
    This is fairly rare. I mostly agree with you.

    One minor linguistic caveat:

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the *SJW, anti-American, Fake Stream Media* is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    “Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength”

    This is endlessly repeated by Russophiles since Week 2 of the war, when signs of Russia’s likely defeat started appearing.

    Seems to me, however, Ukraine is winning *both* the propaganda war and on the fields.

    This shouldn’t be surprising in retrospect. Russia’s tactic of telling endless big and obvious lies is bad propaganda and also bad military strategy. “We aren’t going to invade” “It isn’t a war” “We never intended to take Kiev in the first place.”

    People with pride and self respect recoil at defending such lies. It contributes to demoralization of soldiers and on the homefront.

    Russia’s propaganda war defeat may also have something to do with the lack of help from its supposed ally Belarus.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

  337. AP says:
    @S
    @AP

    In general I find your posts quite intelligent and insightful. I'm sympathetic to both your Ukrainian people, and their aspirations, and the Russian people, in this almost impossible situation.

    It's the context of the entire thing.

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don't even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I don't think they can.

    The US/UK 'cares' about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief 'cares' about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    I wish it were not so and it pains me to say these things.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it's monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state, a state which with its wage slave (ie 'cheap labor') 'immigrant' as it's centerpiece closely parallels the chattel slave holding society it evolved from in many ways.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on 'cared' more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people. Specifically, they cared about the financial value of the labor they were systematically stealing from their wage slaves by grossly under paying them for it.

    This is the economic/political system your Ukrainian government is plugging into.

    Lastly, not to compare specifics but rather the concept, there was a 1971 movie called Murphy's War starring Peter O'toole as 'Murphy', a man employed on an isolated Carribean island in 1945.

    Murphy, with some cause, has a hatred of Germans. Though the war has just ended, he, even so, continues to hunt a German sub which has been lurking in the island's immediate vicinity with a float plane, a floating crane, and a live torpedo he has scrounged.

    Ultimately, Murphy corners and sinks the German sub, but also kills himself in the process.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/92/Murphy%27s_War_Poster.jpeg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_War

    Replies: @AP, @Triteleia Laxa

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the “WASP” elite.

    You’re being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.

    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia’s victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu’s observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia’s victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it’s an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.

    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state

    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    • Disagree: S
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people.
     
    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres.
    I don't know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs. But I suppose they don't matter as long as the profits for Johnson and his plutocrats keep coming in.

    Replies: @AP, @songbird

    , @S
    @AP

    I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree, AP.

    I will leave you (or any interested) with an 1851 London Times editorial linked below, entitled 'The American Minister in Ireland', which reveals the true ugly and hateful face of the genocidal ideology of Multi-culturalism. It's refreshing in it's honesty as it doesn't have the 'positive spin', something they hadn't yet perfected at the time.

    It tells the story of the 1851 visit by the US ambassador to the UK, Abbott Lawrence, who almost certainly not coincidentally in this context was also a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence 'Immigrant City', Mass. It declares quite bluntly that due to the Irish people's enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called 'cheap labor') by the United States that the Irish people will be 'known no more'.

    That by diktat, imported immigrants who have 'mixed' with the Irish, and are 'more mixed', 'more docile', and 'which can submit to a master' will take the more purely Celtic Irish people's place in Ireland. [With all due respect, this replacement slave race they are describing in this context is a clear reference to the descendants of the Plantation, the people of Northern Ireland today.]

    This reveals what is in reality the utter contempt held towards 'immigrants' and the resulting 'mixed' populations. They see them as slaves.

    The editorial then wryly comments how further profits are being made off the utter misery of the Irish people, as ships and rail roads have to be constructed to ship the Irish out.

    I hope the Ukrainian people survive the war.

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared 'progressive' government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence's own well paid Anglo-Saxon local 'Yankee girls' who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave 'immigrants' being 'paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    You won't be asked. It will be done by diktat.

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule...


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg/800px-Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    Replies: @AP, @keypusher

    , @216
    @AP


    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

     

    Whites are explicitly discriminated against in the US by a matter of law and custom. The Republican Party cannot win an election in CA or NY because of rampant anti-white racism. The life expectancy of whites went down 2010-20 when it went up for every other group.

    What you are posting is naked subversion. Stop.
  338. @A123
    @Mikhail

    The scary part is that the footage of Not-The-President Biden is effectively unedited. Only the background has been swapped: (1)


    It is getting worse…. This is not okay. Nothing about this is okay.
     
    https://youtu.be/VCKZZTOXA-0

    Not-The-VP Harris presents the coup puppeteers with a massive dilemma. The current dribbler is a disaster, but at least it can be denied medication & locked in the occupied White House basement. What would happen if the replacement tried to make policy by herself? That is a risk they cannot take.

    The writers that produced Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister need to tackle this illegitimate White House.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/

    Replies: @keypusher, @Mikhail

    And yet Not-the-President and Not-the-Vice-President, idiots though they plainly are, nevertheless are kicking Russia’s ass!

    This is just to say that while obviously it would be better for Ukraine — and, frankly, better overall policy — for the West to step up the economic measures against Russia, Russia simply isn’t strong enough to make it genuinely necessary.

    https://www.slowboring.com/p/mancur-olson-end-of-history?s=r

    Bizarre, isn’t it?

  339. @A123
    @Mikhail

    The scary part is that the footage of Not-The-President Biden is effectively unedited. Only the background has been swapped: (1)


    It is getting worse…. This is not okay. Nothing about this is okay.
     
    https://youtu.be/VCKZZTOXA-0

    Not-The-VP Harris presents the coup puppeteers with a massive dilemma. The current dribbler is a disaster, but at least it can be denied medication & locked in the occupied White House basement. What would happen if the replacement tried to make policy by herself? That is a risk they cannot take.

    The writers that produced Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister need to tackle this illegitimate White House.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/28/biden-malfunctions/

    Replies: @keypusher, @Mikhail

    There’s also the Biden-Harris porn video:

    https://twitter.com/IFreedom4all/status/1520271421741535232

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  340. An update on the refugee situation. Sweden has now taken in 34K refugees from Ukraine. Previously the government refused to do prognostications but rather released “scenarios”. There are now almost 10 weeks since the war started, so the first actual forecast has been released.

    We’re expected to take in 80K Ukrainian refugees (not counting their families, who will be let in at a later stage) this year. Contra rightoid propaganda, we’re not slamming the door. Almost 80% of all Ukrainian refugees who have asked for asylum have been granted it, with the remaining 20% most likely being from other countries (e.g. Nigeria) where they can return safely.

    Moreover, the government has said that we’re prepared to take in even 200K if it comes to it. The only thing our PM warned about was that we cannot be expected to take a disproportionate share like we did in 2015, which is absolutely correct. This was twisted/misinterpreted on purpose by bad faith actors.

    I’ve personally asked several organisations that I’ve volunteered with in the past if they need any help dealing with the newcomers for “weekend warriors” like myself but the answer I got back is that they’ve had to tell their permanent staff that much less is needed than anyone expected.

    Swedish society appears to be exceptionally well-prepared to help these people and there is strong social solidarity that I can pick up on in casual conversations with people. It doesn’t feel contrived.

    Moreover, as I’ve noted in the past, we’ve had a massive cutdown on refugee intake from 2016 onwards. Last year we had barely 11K. Even prior to 2015, we had 50-70K per year. This means we had tons of spare capacity once the war broke out and now the Ukrainians will be beneficiaries of that.

    Yet it’s not all roses. There are many firms creating specific jobs only for Ukrainians, often involving things like cleaning or other service jobs. This has led to complaints from NGOs and non-European immigrants that they are getting privileged access in a way that wasn’t the case for Syrians or Afghans.

    I personally question this narrative. As I recall, a huge point of contention was that many of these prior refugees were given gigantic subsidies in the event of getting hired (so as to encourage Swedish firms to get them hired). Some did, but the moment the subventions ended typically the Syrians and Afghans were no longer profitable and subsequently fired. By contrast, no such subventions are available now as far as I can tell, yet companies are more eager to hire.

    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we’re getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you’ve had the DENK (Denk means “think” in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan’s AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called “Nyans” (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.

    They don’t have any shot at getting into the national parliament but it’s possible that they could pick up a few local council seats for a few major cities, including Stockholm. Their influence is likely to be very marginal but clearly this will increase polarisation and make arguments easier for the far-right. Not a good thing.

    • Replies: @216
    @Thulean Friend


    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we’re getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you’ve had the DENK (Denk means “think” in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan’s AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called “Nyans” (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.
     
    This is why every Western land should have an "Anti-Subversion Act" which would summarily deport any dual national that engages in these efforts.
  341. Good to know:

    https://www.rt.com/news/554797-annalena-baerbock-heckled-ukraine/

    New administrations in Germany, US and UK.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Mikhail

    Wow, one can really see the class differences there between supporters and non-supporters. All those booing are from a lower class (visibly underpaid middle age dudes). Like in other places in Europe and the US.

    P.s. On good news, it looks like the long-awaited evacuation of civilians from Azovstal will take place. Fingers crossed. There are very young children stuck there.

    Replies: @Sean

  342. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @Matra


    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    Telling that you are less concerned about the crimes committed by those POWs and their compatriots against civilians in the place they have invaded. I guess you identify more with Russian soldiers who invade a country and rape and murder civilians there, than with the victims' outraged compatriots. Old fashioned values of yours?

    The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles
     
    So you equate Russian rapist-and-murderer-soldiers killed today, with Polish women and children murdered in the 1940s. Nice glimpse into your morality.

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians. It was far more than the number of Polish civilians murdered by Ukrainians. And while all of these murders were unjustified, yours were even less so. It was just a dirty century, few had clean hands and yours were dirtier.

    But, as you have demonstrated, you identify with killers of children as long as they are in uniformed armed forces.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @German_reader

    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians.

    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did. Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference), but it also was a distanced form of killing, and risky for the air crews (50 000 from Bomber command killed in action). So I don’t think you should make that comparison, because it’s far from clear it’s to the benefit of Ukrainians.
    I don’t agree with Matra on the current issue, Russia is the aggressor and it seems pretty clear that Russian troops have committed appalling war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, so Russia is vastly more in the wrong. However, I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating. A lot of the “stand with Ukraine” normie shitlibs seem to believe America and her allies are a pure force for good in the world, which imo is neither true from a left-wing or liberal perpective nor from a nationalist one like mine.

    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader


    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did
     
    They conveniently didn’t have to; they just incinerated far more women and children from the skies. Ukrainian murderers were just poorer and less technologically advanced than Anglo ones were. You are making excuses based on classicism.

    But it wasn’t always impersonal. One of my grandparents in Germany witnessed an Anglo plane flying low and strafing civilians with machine guns. I think this practice was referred to as “turkey shooting.” An elderly American veteran once old me how he had thrown Japanese POWs out of an airplane without parachutes. They at least weren’t civilians. Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?


    Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference
     
    In Germany they typically avoided industrial areas (which they could later use themselves) and targeted and attacked residential ones. One of my grandparents, a medical resident in Germany, was often treating survivors and witnessed these crimes.

    I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating
     
    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

  343. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @S


    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?
     
    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the "WASP" elite.

    You're being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/English2000.png

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.


    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.
     
    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia's victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu's observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia's victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it's an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.


    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.
     
    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state
     
    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    Replies: @German_reader, @S, @216

    Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people.

    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres.
    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs. But I suppose they don’t matter as long as the profits for Johnson and his plutocrats keep coming in.

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader


    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres
     
    I wouldn’t like that but they don’t seem to mind it, as long as they are in charge and wealthy.

    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs
     
    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    Replies: @Coconuts

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    Samo Burja is saying that Europe might someday become categorized as "formerly developed countries."

    Granted, he doesn't have a perfect record of prediction, but this one seems plausible to me, for Western Europe. MENA largely appears to be a dump. (semi-exception might be the European part of Turkey, if you take out the migrants).

    Anyway, though I do use it myself, I think the three-tier classification of countries should be retired. IMO, there is too much hubris and complacency in it, and anyway, not enough gradations. Obviously, there is a difference between a place like DRC and Malaysia. Similarly, I think it is pretty clear that there is a difference between places with safe cities with clean public bathrooms (Japan) and places with dangerous cities and poor public bathrooms (the West).

  344. 3 factual observations:

    1. Mariupol is still not conquered. Ukrainian resistance stands.

    2. There’s no Russian breakthrough in Donbas, or cauldron or encirclement.

    3. The Ukrainian military already retake territory East of Kharkhiv.

    So how does Russia win? Continue to grind out a few kilometres a day in the Donbas?

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties. Nevermind losing ground elsewhere.

    Russia is probably two weeks, at most, from exhaustion on this effort, and they might take 50 kilometres in that time. This is dismal. They withdrew much further in a day after their Kyiv advance failed.

    Furthermore, Ukraine are already reinforcing with significant reserves and new Western equipment is beginning to filter into the frontline from when it was delivered 6 weeks ago, but needed to be trained on. For example, there is now footage of the switchblade drones.

    If what happened 6 weeks ago is coming through now, then what happened 5 weeks ago will come through next week etc. Therefore we should all know the avalanche that is coming. The next 6 weeks balance of power is baked in.

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late. It’ll take at least a month for it to have an effect. It is likely that the Russian advance will be checked by then, even in their much more limited and concentrated operations since their defeat and retreat in the North. And then Ukraine will be able to exploit as they see fit.

    No expert has called Russian defeat in the Donbas in their current main effort, but you can expect to see the bolder ones do so over the next few days. In a week, almost all will. In 2 weeks, or thereabouts, Ritter, MacGregor et al. will be discussing some sort of Russian “super manoeuvre feint.” Or ranting about the irrelevant vanity project “Khinzal.” Or some other completely idiotic distraction.

    Essentially, the story of the last 10 days is that despite taking the easiest ground in Ukraine, Russia is taking so little, and what is easiest to take is also easiest to take back.

    And since Russia can’t breakthrough on the ground that is most favourable to them, Russia can hardly expect to force the Kyiv government into surrender.

    We are 70 days in and Russia has not yet even taken a Ukrainian city that has resisted. Nor can they operate in the air unimpeded, nevermind the ground.

    I wrote the following to Anatoly more than 6 weeks ago. I could literally write the same thing today and it would still be true. It was shocking and not believed by Russian partisans then. So how insanely more shocking must it be for them now:

    This is a good attempt to be positive, but let’s be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

    1. Achieve air supremacy.

    2. Occupy Mariupol.

    It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

    3. Occupy Kharkiv.

    4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

    5. Occupy Odesa.

    6. Occupy Kyiv.

    This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

    7. Occupy Lviv

    How’s this going to happen?

    8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

    Good luck!

    9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

    Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

    Since you’re still struggling with “1” and have no plans for anything above “4”, I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers’ peace tonight.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://www.rt.com/russia/554729-us-ukrainian-perception-donbass/

    , @LatW
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties.
     
    That's exactly what it's called - "mobile" or "maneuverable" defense. It's what the Ukrainian military experts have been calling it for weeks. The troops advance, but also retreat in small areas, if needed. The Ukrainians are fighting a modern war, while the Russians seem to be doing what they learned in their academy (entirely theoretical based on WW2 experience) or even Moltke style. Interesting whether the Ukrainians learned it themselves after 2014, or if it was the NATO instructors who advised them on this, probably a combination of both.


    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late
     
    Yes, it is late, it would take at least a month to get it ready. Plus, they'd have to supply everybody.

    Russia just went from an authoritarian country to a totalitarian one during the past year, accelerating in the last few months. The hardcore vatnik side is calling for the destruction of Ukraine, but out of those 70% who support the war, the majority are silent. That's the consensus between the elites and the population (either open support with the letter Z, etc., or silent agreement).

    If they announce a mobilization, many in this silent population will react negatively or possibly even with panic (which might cause many young men to try to leave Russia). They may start wondering about where their splendid Armed forces are and why is a mobilization needed at all. Remember, how they used to say "The professionals will do the job".

    It's incredible, even Girkin-Strelkov warned about this months ago (all his rants can be found on a little YouTube channel called Roi TV from way back where he was warning about this).

    Hypothetically, they can put 18 million to arms, however, in this case Russia itself is not attacked (so what is the motivation?) and these are all people with no military experience, with families, jobs & other obligations. Even if you train them for a month, it is way too long (as you said), the Ukrainian side will not wait for them to be ready but will continue clearing out the land from the enemy. A month of training is laughable, they'll be sent to a sure death. If people are given a choice of an arrest or sure death, they will choose arrest.

    It's also possible that the Kremlin doesn't even want to pass out weapons to such a large population. Who knows which way those weapons could turn.

    But they could try a mobilization in the Southern regions of Russia.

    I remember way back when I first heard the term "Rosgvardia", I immediately thought they are forming a territorial militia across all of Russia (where civilians would practice once a month and be given arms like it is in Finland & the Baltic States). I thought it would become a formidable and impressive force. But it turned out that Rosgvardia is for policing political dissent, as well as small scale attacks that they did around Kyiv.

    Other "interesting" signs of the low morale in the Russian army - the Kadyrov's gang had a skirmish with Buryat soldiers, where 10 soldiers were killed. It seems that the Kadyrov's gang are put in place to police the Russian soldiers from deserting, the function of the NKVD during WW2. So brutal...

    Apparently, Gerasimov traveled to Izyum to lead the operation from there, this is very rare as they typically do not leave the General Headquarters. His career and reputation are on the line here. Today I heard some crazy news that he might be wounded, I don't believe that though.

    Having said all that, unfortunately, they can still do a lot of damage and the boys are dying in large numbers. :(

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is now in the East where they were in the North in mid-March.

    Meanwhile, they are already in full retreat from Kharkhiv to their own border.

    And Western artillery is not online yet. It outranges Russian artillery and should be finally deployed in the East perhaps tomorrow.

    Russian casualties and defeats are about to skyrocket. Their only option is to withdraw. Even a tactical nuke won't save them. Its use would sever even China's tepid friendship. And the West would be forced to escalate to de-escalate itself. Any other response would legitimise the use of nuclear weapons in the 21st Century. I suggest they would be best served by telling Russia that they would bomb every Russian asset within the sovereign borders of Ukraine in 48 hours for 2 weeks as retaliation. There is no response that Russia could have, that they would not have already sunk to. It would be check mate and would force their immediate withdrawal, but in total disgrace.

    Much more sensible they just leave now. Or desperately try and sign a deal for the pre-war borders via referendum. They can probably forget about "no NATO' though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Mr. Hack

  345. A123 says: • Website
    @Matra
    @A123


    What concessions will Ukraine offer to make up for their War Crimes targeting Crimean civilians?

    If the Ukie side demands territory that allows them to repeat their War Crimes… That will simply lead to the next war. The Ukrainian side can refuse sincere contrition
     
    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals ever had to answer for their atrocities? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? NATO's support for Ukraine means the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    If you are on Telegram, which unlike all other social media is not censored by the NATO libtards & communists, you've seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs. The crimes involving mutilations and worse show that the Ukies of today are cut from the same cloth as those who collaborated with Hitler and exterminated 100,000 Poles right after the Second World War. Shame on Poland for supporting such atrocities. Unfortunately, I have little faith these Ukrainian war criminals will be brought to justice as the Russian leadership itself doesn't seem to give a shit about its soldiers, who appear to have been sent to fight with one arm tied behind their backs. Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth who are responsible for this war, and almost all the other wars of the last three decades, but I doubt it as Putin appears to be a typically unimaginative boomer conservatard.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals

    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase “American-aligned” is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so “EU-aligned” and “Europe-aligned” are 180° opposed positions.

    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth

    Putin has few options to directly attack “anti-American WEF/SJW filth”. Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.

    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.

    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.

    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of “body dumps” around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government’s targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification “no one died”, thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    They use the justification “no one died”, thus "saneembracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment. Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious.
     
    And we're to succumb to your supposed superior knowledge on this issue, as the arbeiter of who is "sane" and who is "mentally retarded" (I suggest that you look into a mirror to see a clear example of the later).

    If the Russians in Crimea had really wanted any water flowing from the Dnieper, all they had to do was pay for it, but no they didn't. As far as "non-lethal collective punishment", the US Department of State looks at it like this:


    The issue is not that there is coercive action impacting the population collaterally, but rather what that impact is and what mitigating humanitarian measµres are put in place. Therefore, the fact that the fabric of economic life of the civilian population is adversely affected as a result of economic warfare does not, in itself, amount to 'collective punishment.'
     
    https://ccrjustice.org/files/StateDept%205001-5500.pdf

    Take your grievances to the State Department, or to the world court of the OHCHR, although this has already been done by Russia and found to constitute groundless pleas and resulted in unsympathetic responses. The fact that getting water to Crimea can be a costly sort of thing should have been thought through more carefully before Crimea was invaded and absorbed anschluss style into Russia proper.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @AP
    @A123


    For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians.
     
    Sorry, but this is a very dumb take. In the 1960's, the Soviets irrigated semi-arid grassland in northern Crimea to turn it into artificially productive farmland (they were into irrigation projects, killing the Aral Sea around the same time). Ukrainians reversed this Soviet project and returned Crimea to its natural state. Nobody died from this, drinking water was not eliminated. This is no "war crime." It just cost Crimea money.

    Replies: @A123

    , @sudden death
    @A123


    building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.
     
    Should be getting at least basic facts right before boasting in humanitarian righteousness - all those dams were built long before UA became independent for the purpose of irrigating agricultural arid lands of northern Crimea and after RF landgrab water pump valves were shut down in order to increase cost of occupation IIRC.

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious as not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

  346. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon
    @AP

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine's name.

    Replies: @A123, @Pixo

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    This is fairly rare. I mostly agree with you.

    One minor linguistic caveat:

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the *SJW, anti-American, Fake Stream Media* is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine’s name.

    PEACE 😇

  347. AP says:
    @German_reader
    @AP


    BTW, remind me how many German civilians (women and children) you Anglos incinerated at around the same time that Ukrainians had killed Polish civilians.
     
    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did. Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference), but it also was a distanced form of killing, and risky for the air crews (50 000 from Bomber command killed in action). So I don't think you should make that comparison, because it's far from clear it's to the benefit of Ukrainians.
    I don't agree with Matra on the current issue, Russia is the aggressor and it seems pretty clear that Russian troops have committed appalling war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, so Russia is vastly more in the wrong. However, I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating. A lot of the "stand with Ukraine" normie shitlibs seem to believe America and her allies are a pure force for good in the world, which imo is neither true from a left-wing or liberal perpective nor from a nationalist one like mine.

    Replies: @AP

    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did

    They conveniently didn’t have to; they just incinerated far more women and children from the skies. Ukrainian murderers were just poorer and less technologically advanced than Anglo ones were. You are making excuses based on classicism.

    But it wasn’t always impersonal. One of my grandparents in Germany witnessed an Anglo plane flying low and strafing civilians with machine guns. I think this practice was referred to as “turkey shooting.” An elderly American veteran once old me how he had thrown Japanese POWs out of an airplane without parachutes. They at least weren’t civilians. Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?

    Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference

    In Germany they typically avoided industrial areas (which they could later use themselves) and targeted and attacked residential ones. One of my grandparents, a medical resident in Germany, was often treating survivors and witnessed these crimes.

    I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP


    Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?
     
    Probably not (and I have no idea anyway what Ukrainian soldiers actually have done to pows, or how widespread such actions are). It would still be good though if Ukrainian military authorities told their soldiers not to mistreat pows. Or at least not to be stupid enough to film it and upload it on the internet.

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.
     
    That's a pretty weird argument. "Redemption" would include punishment for the politicians responsible (not even necessarily prison, confiscation of most of their property might suffice), and consequences for the journalists who promoted the war. None of which has happened. And anyway, I disagree with the idea that decisions for supporting Ukraine should be based on such quasi-religious sentiments.
    Regarding neocon journalists, I just googled Max Boot...and to my great surprise I found he was opposed to a no-fly-zone over Ukraine:
    https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1500821436864339968
    This is just one more piece of evidence what a demented lunatic utu is, he's more extreme even than Max Boot.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Wokechoke
    @AP

    How much is the CIA paying you for this character?

    It’s quite the hamfisted attempt at Narrative Jamming.



    The English have no idea what they are supporting. Thanks Daily Mail, Times, Telegraph, Mirror, Sun.

  348. @S
    @AP

    In general I find your posts quite intelligent and insightful. I'm sympathetic to both your Ukrainian people, and their aspirations, and the Russian people, in this almost impossible situation.

    It's the context of the entire thing.

    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don't even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?

    I don't think they can.

    The US/UK 'cares' about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief 'cares' about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.

    I wish it were not so and it pains me to say these things.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it's monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state, a state which with its wage slave (ie 'cheap labor') 'immigrant' as it's centerpiece closely parallels the chattel slave holding society it evolved from in many ways.

    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on 'cared' more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people. Specifically, they cared about the financial value of the labor they were systematically stealing from their wage slaves by grossly under paying them for it.

    This is the economic/political system your Ukrainian government is plugging into.

    Lastly, not to compare specifics but rather the concept, there was a 1971 movie called Murphy's War starring Peter O'toole as 'Murphy', a man employed on an isolated Carribean island in 1945.

    Murphy, with some cause, has a hatred of Germans. Though the war has just ended, he, even so, continues to hunt a German sub which has been lurking in the island's immediate vicinity with a float plane, a floating crane, and a live torpedo he has scrounged.

    Ultimately, Murphy corners and sinks the German sub, but also kills himself in the process.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/92/Murphy%27s_War_Poster.jpeg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_War

    Replies: @AP, @Triteleia Laxa

    Your argument here is the reductio ad absurdum of the “dissident right.”

    “If someone doesn’t care about the Great Replacement theory, then they therefore care about nothing and are hateful and nihilistic and cynical and corrupt.”

    Well the vast majority of people don’t care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don’t, and many of them are very loving and caring individuals who just don’t conform to your ideological worldview.

    It is tough, but them not caring about the one thing you’ve managed to learn to care about, does not make them sociopaths.

    Really, you can do a lot better and be infinitely more effective for your cause, our cause, by actually thinking deeply and developing an understanding of other people and not just relying on such trash simplifications.

    Improve yourself man!

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Well the vast majority of people don’t care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don’t
     
    Renaud Camus coined the term Grand Remplacement. "Theory" was not a part of it, but is clearly a partisan additive, meant to weaken or disarm the power of the idea, and to lower the status of people promoting it, by calling into question their sanity.

    You will not find the equal of the term anywhere ("____ theory"), where it might call into question progressive policy. No matter the scientific basis, for questioning the axioms.

    The term "Great Replacement theory" itself is a validation of the idea. If they did not care, they would not take the effort to call it into question or denounce it.
  349. AP says:
    @German_reader
    @AP


    Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people.
     
    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres.
    I don't know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs. But I suppose they don't matter as long as the profits for Johnson and his plutocrats keep coming in.

    Replies: @AP, @songbird

    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres

    I wouldn’t like that but they don’t seem to mind it, as long as they are in charge and wealthy.

    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs

    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
    @AP


    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.
     
    Many of the girls apparently were in care, but far from all, there was a memorable podcast interview with an obviously middle class girl who became a victim of one of these gangs. The relevant variable seems to have been the presence of a Pakistani or Bangladeshi community in the area, there have been grooming cases across England, wherever this is the case.

    This issue is suggestive of the ways in which the British elite is not always all that concerned about its population, if it has some other overriding goal to pursue. (I think now it would be wrong to say just the Anglo elite, given the way that growing numbers of non-Anglos are becoming part of it.)

    The question for Ukrainian nationalism would be that one of these overriding goals looks to be establishing universal liberalism or the 'Republic of Humanity' thing, under their leadership. In UK media you can see the Ukrainian conflict being seen through this lens. Recall Victor Hugo writing in 1867:


    'Goodbye people! Hello Humanity! Suffer your fateful and sublime enlargement, o my fatherland, and, in the same way as Athens became Greece, in the same way as Rome became Christendom, you France will become the world... France has the admirable quality of being destined to die, but to die like a god, by transfiguration.'
     
    Ukraine, UK, Germany... etc. each could equally be substituted for France within this worldview.
  350. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird
    @A123

    BTW, I did read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    One was a sentence that was part of a stream of consciousness that could have as easily been cut, without the reader noticing:
    "Dragger suck." As an invective the term had all of the impact of several historical terms-Quisling, heretic, fag, nigger-lover, all rolled into one.

    The other was that, at the end of the story, the main character gets super-cucked by returning to the planet he had been stranded on, getting super old (or so I interpreted, from the reference "withered knees"), raising a line of aliens that he had first met in battle.

    If I had to criticize the work, I would say that the lessons of the Drac about the importance of lineage didn't seem to carry over to the main character. But, I don't know, maybe, the author intended that as a negative commentary on his character's rootless upbringing.

    Quick read.

    Replies: @A123

    read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:

    George R.R. Martin has been Labour/Left long before such a stance became popular in the U.S. The occasional throw away line use to be easily ignorable. Enemy Mine was published in the 70’s.

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov's and, I think, Analog.

    The novelization of the movie (which I read) had a co-author, David Gerrold, who wrote several Star Trek episodes/premises, including creating Tribbles. Though, he also appears not to be George RR Martin.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

  351. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @German_reader


    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did
     
    They conveniently didn’t have to; they just incinerated far more women and children from the skies. Ukrainian murderers were just poorer and less technologically advanced than Anglo ones were. You are making excuses based on classicism.

    But it wasn’t always impersonal. One of my grandparents in Germany witnessed an Anglo plane flying low and strafing civilians with machine guns. I think this practice was referred to as “turkey shooting.” An elderly American veteran once old me how he had thrown Japanese POWs out of an airplane without parachutes. They at least weren’t civilians. Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?


    Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference
     
    In Germany they typically avoided industrial areas (which they could later use themselves) and targeted and attacked residential ones. One of my grandparents, a medical resident in Germany, was often treating survivors and witnessed these crimes.

    I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating
     
    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

    Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?

    Probably not (and I have no idea anyway what Ukrainian soldiers actually have done to pows, or how widespread such actions are). It would still be good though if Ukrainian military authorities told their soldiers not to mistreat pows. Or at least not to be stupid enough to film it and upload it on the internet.

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    That’s a pretty weird argument. “Redemption” would include punishment for the politicians responsible (not even necessarily prison, confiscation of most of their property might suffice), and consequences for the journalists who promoted the war. None of which has happened. And anyway, I disagree with the idea that decisions for supporting Ukraine should be based on such quasi-religious sentiments.
    Regarding neocon journalists, I just googled Max Boot…and to my great surprise I found he was opposed to a no-fly-zone over Ukraine:


    This is just one more piece of evidence what a demented lunatic utu is, he’s more extreme even than Max Boot.

    • Replies: @utu
    @German_reader


    "Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq." .... "That’s a pretty weird argument."

     

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the "professional" Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can't afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term "anglos" as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt 'whataboutist' counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel, @AP

  352. S says:
    @AP
    @S


    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?
     
    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the "WASP" elite.

    You're being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/English2000.png

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.


    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.
     
    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia's victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu's observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia's victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it's an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.


    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.
     
    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state
     
    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    Replies: @German_reader, @S, @216

    I suppose we’ll just have to agree to disagree, AP.

    I will leave you (or any interested) with an 1851 London Times editorial linked below, entitled ‘The American Minister in Ireland’, which reveals the true ugly and hateful face of the genocidal ideology of Multi-culturalism. It’s refreshing in it’s honesty as it doesn’t have the ‘positive spin’, something they hadn’t yet perfected at the time.

    It tells the story of the 1851 visit by the US ambassador to the UK, Abbott Lawrence, who almost certainly not coincidentally in this context was also a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence ‘Immigrant City’, Mass. It declares quite bluntly that due to the Irish people’s enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called ‘cheap labor’) by the United States that the Irish people will be ‘known no more’.

    That by diktat, imported immigrants who have ‘mixed’ with the Irish, and are ‘more mixed’, ‘more docile’, and ‘which can submit to a master’ will take the more purely Celtic Irish people’s place in Ireland. [With all due respect, this replacement slave race they are describing in this context is a clear reference to the descendants of the Plantation, the people of Northern Ireland today.]

    This reveals what is in reality the utter contempt held towards ‘immigrants’ and the resulting ‘mixed’ populations. They see them as slaves.

    The editorial then wryly comments how further profits are being made off the utter misery of the Irish people, as ships and rail roads have to be constructed to ship the Irish out.

    I hope the Ukrainian people survive the war.

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    You won’t be asked. It will be done by diktat.

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule…


    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    • Replies: @AP
    @S

    You map shows how the unruly, poorly disciplined Scotch-Irish (useful tools for Anglos for killing and stealing land from Irish Catholics and Injuns, not so great as factory workers) were replaced by kinder and more docile Italians, Poles, etc. How did the Poles, Italians, Ukrainians, Slovaks etc. who replaced the Scotch-Irish fare under the Anglo system? Pretty damned good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income


    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.
     
    If Ukraine survives this war and eventually joins the EU it will follow in Poland's footsteps. Poland is a great place with a wonderful quality of life.
    , @keypusher
    @S


    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.
     
    Not to be rude, but this is hysteria, not to mention rank stupidity. People didn't cross the Atlantic Ocean to be paid starvation wages.
  353. @A123
    @Matra


    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals
     
    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase "American-aligned" is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so "EU-aligned" and "Europe-aligned" are 180° opposed positions.


    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth
     
    Putin has few options to directly attack "anti-American WEF/SJW filth". Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.


    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.
    ...
    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of "body dumps" around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government's targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification "no one died", thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of "non-lethal" collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational "recognizing the crime" or mentally ill "denying the undeniable", the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP, @sudden death

    They use the justification “no one died”, thus “saneembracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment. Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious.

    And we’re to succumb to your supposed superior knowledge on this issue, as the arbeiter of who is “sane” and who is “mentally retarded” (I suggest that you look into a mirror to see a clear example of the later).

    If the Russians in Crimea had really wanted any water flowing from the Dnieper, all they had to do was pay for it, but no they didn’t. As far as “non-lethal collective punishment”, the US Department of State looks at it like this:

    The issue is not that there is coercive action impacting the population collaterally, but rather what that impact is and what mitigating humanitarian measµres are put in place. Therefore, the fact that the fabric of economic life of the civilian population is adversely affected as a result of economic warfare does not, in itself, amount to ‘collective punishment.’

    https://ccrjustice.org/files/StateDept%205001-5500.pdf

    Take your grievances to the State Department, or to the world court of the OHCHR, although this has already been done by Russia and found to constitute groundless pleas and resulted in unsympathetic responses. The fact that getting water to Crimea can be a costly sort of thing should have been thought through more carefully before Crimea was invaded and absorbed anschluss style into Russia proper.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    Erasing Nikolaev should be job 1 for the Russians.

    Especially the mayor. They’ll keep Kherson.

  354. AP says:
    @A123
    @Matra


    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals
     
    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase "American-aligned" is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so "EU-aligned" and "Europe-aligned" are 180° opposed positions.


    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth
     
    Putin has few options to directly attack "anti-American WEF/SJW filth". Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.


    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.
    ...
    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of "body dumps" around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government's targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification "no one died", thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of "non-lethal" collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational "recognizing the crime" or mentally ill "denying the undeniable", the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP, @sudden death

    For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians.

    Sorry, but this is a very dumb take. In the 1960’s, the Soviets irrigated semi-arid grassland in northern Crimea to turn it into artificially productive farmland (they were into irrigation projects, killing the Aral Sea around the same time). Ukrainians reversed this Soviet project and returned Crimea to its natural state. Nobody died from this, drinking water was not eliminated. This is no “war crime.” It just cost Crimea money.

    • Agree: sudden death
    • Replies: @A123
    @AP

    Once civilians depend on it, separating "artificial" from "natural" is absurd. The canal started flowing in the 1960's, though the full length did not finish until the 1970's. That is over 50 years before the Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam to impose suffering on Crimean civilians.

    Yes. Farmers are civilians. Destroying their livelihoods on government orders is "targeting civilians". That the Ukrainian collective punishment of innocent Crimean civilians turned out nonlethal is a relief, but it does not justify the underlying War Crime.
    _____

    Regardless of your opinion of right or wrong, do you grasp the inevitable consequence of Ukraine's construction of the Punishment Dam?

    It is the obligation of the Russian government to protect Crimean civilians. There is now a 100% certainty that Russia will hold the full length of the North Crimean Canal to the Dnieper River. Having proved their willingness to engage in collective punishment, subsequent Ukrainian administrations will not be given the opportunity to rebuild the Punishment Dam.

    PEACE 😇

  355. AP says:
    @S
    @AP

    I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree, AP.

    I will leave you (or any interested) with an 1851 London Times editorial linked below, entitled 'The American Minister in Ireland', which reveals the true ugly and hateful face of the genocidal ideology of Multi-culturalism. It's refreshing in it's honesty as it doesn't have the 'positive spin', something they hadn't yet perfected at the time.

    It tells the story of the 1851 visit by the US ambassador to the UK, Abbott Lawrence, who almost certainly not coincidentally in this context was also a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence 'Immigrant City', Mass. It declares quite bluntly that due to the Irish people's enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called 'cheap labor') by the United States that the Irish people will be 'known no more'.

    That by diktat, imported immigrants who have 'mixed' with the Irish, and are 'more mixed', 'more docile', and 'which can submit to a master' will take the more purely Celtic Irish people's place in Ireland. [With all due respect, this replacement slave race they are describing in this context is a clear reference to the descendants of the Plantation, the people of Northern Ireland today.]

    This reveals what is in reality the utter contempt held towards 'immigrants' and the resulting 'mixed' populations. They see them as slaves.

    The editorial then wryly comments how further profits are being made off the utter misery of the Irish people, as ships and rail roads have to be constructed to ship the Irish out.

    I hope the Ukrainian people survive the war.

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared 'progressive' government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence's own well paid Anglo-Saxon local 'Yankee girls' who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave 'immigrants' being 'paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    You won't be asked. It will be done by diktat.

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule...


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg/800px-Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    Replies: @AP, @keypusher

    You map shows how the unruly, poorly disciplined Scotch-Irish (useful tools for Anglos for killing and stealing land from Irish Catholics and Injuns, not so great as factory workers) were replaced by kinder and more docile Italians, Poles, etc. How did the Poles, Italians, Ukrainians, Slovaks etc. who replaced the Scotch-Irish fare under the Anglo system? Pretty damned good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    If Ukraine survives this war and eventually joins the EU it will follow in Poland’s footsteps. Poland is a great place with a wonderful quality of life.

  356. @A123
    @Matra


    When is the last time American-aligned war criminals
     
    Given the divisions in American politics the phrase "American-aligned" is a meaningless noise. Do you mean SJW/WEF aligned? That would make them opposed to MAGA and America.

    A similar linguistic problem impacts the other side of The Pond. The EU hates Europe, so "EU-aligned" and "Europe-aligned" are 180° opposed positions.


    Hopefully Russia will soon get serious and fight back against the American filth
     
    Putin has few options to directly attack "anti-American WEF/SJW filth". Any attempt to do so could easily create MAGA casualties thus unifying the deeply divided American side. Putin has no reason to take such foolish actions.

    Blowing up Davos during a WEF meeting is tempting, but could easily generate unintended consequences.


    the Ukrainian leadership can rest easy knowing that they will never be prosecuted for anything.
    ...
    you’ve seen utterly repulsive Ukrainian war crimes against defenseless Russian POWs.
     
    There is no evidence the leadership of either side has ordered mutilation of prisoners. There is evidence that both sides have committed this type of activity. The first round of "body dumps" around Bucha appear to be Russian troops exacting payback as they left. The second round had white armbands worn by local Russia supporters. These murders were committed by Ukrainians, either civilians or their incoming military.

    Both sides have an issue with social media in the hands of individual soldiers. Once small groups see video of the other sides committing war crimes there is an understandable emotional response. Regardless of who started what, both national command authorities have imperfect control.
    ____

    What I am referring to is the criminal behaviour that preceded, and precipitated, this round of fighting. For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    The Ukrainians show no contrition for this crime. Mentally ill Ukrainians keep trying to justify their government's targeting of civilians, and are proud that collective punishment was inflicted. For example: They use the justification "no one died", thus implicitly embracing the War Crime of "non-lethal" collective punishment.

    Whether one is rational "recognizing the crime" or mentally ill "denying the undeniable", the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious. Any territory needed to protect the Russian civilian population will be retained.

    When will Ukraine have a government capable of accepting the minimum needed to reach an accommodation? Given the near deification of Zelensky, Saviour of Kiev, this is unlikely to be soon.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @AP, @sudden death

    building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.

    Should be getting at least basic facts right before boasting in humanitarian righteousness – all those dams were built long before UA became independent for the purpose of irrigating agricultural arid lands of northern Crimea and after RF landgrab water pump valves were shut down in order to increase cost of occupation IIRC.

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious as not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @sudden death

    An interesting comparison, water for Crimea - gas for Poland-Bulgaria. Both are voluntary transactions that the supplier had the right to stop. The difference is the way this is treated by the West: one is ignored, the other constantly demonized. Don't you find that somehow "unfree" or even propaganda? Some balance is needed to have a civilized discourse.

    You get all hot aunder the collar about the "slimy shutting down of gas for the everyday living needs", but the governments declared that they won't pay Gazprom. What would you expect? Charity gas?

    I explained before why paying in "euros" is in effect not paying under the current circumstances - euro is a house currency issued by EU and keeping accounts in EU in euros that EU can confiscate doesn't meet the minimum requirement for a definition of "payment". Any rational seller would refuse since EU effectively demands that Russia provides the gas for free.

    Poland will be fine, they can start digging for coal again, or cover their Baltic shores with LNG terminals. Or ask Greta what to do.

    Bulgaria not so much, they are clueless and cornered. But Bulgaria is down to barely more than 5-6 million mostly elderly people with almost no industrial activity, maybe Brussels could just send some blankets or even gently suggest easing euthanasia laws. And Bulgaria is perfectly positioned as a migrant repository on the EU borders, this could be a win-win.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @A123
    @sudden death


    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious.
     
    Nice bit of histrionic fabrication. Ad hominem attacks mark you as a mouth frothing crazy degenerate.

    not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.
     
    If you go back through my posting you will find multiple occurrences where I strenuously objected to Putin cutting natural gas flows to and through Poland. For example: (1)

    Deliberately interrupting deliveries via the Yamal (Belarus-Poland) pipeline showed that Putin is inherently unreliable.
    ...
    Everyone in Europe interpreted that way. Putin intentionally deployed legalistic minimalism to destabilize the European natural gas “spot market”. (2)

    According to Slovakian operator Eustream, the average daily volume of gas transfer from Russia between Jan. 1 and 9 had dropped to 54 million cubic meters — half the amount for the same period in 2021. The Yamal pipeline, on the other hand, has not been transferring any gas through Poland at all since the end of December.
     
    The fact that Putin intentionally went after European markets in an attempt to coerce NS2 startup is proven fact. There is no way for him to take back the failed attempt at blackmail.
     
    Here is a helpful tip if you want to be taken seriously.

    You should *stop lying*.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/#comment-5200804

    (2) https://rmx.news/poland/us-gas-supply-to-eu-is-5x-higher-than-that-of-russias-gazprom-so-far-in-january/

    Replies: @sudden death

  357. @A123
    @songbird


    read Enemy Mine. It was better than I thought it would be, though still pozzed in two places:
     
    George R.R. Martin has been Labour/Left long before such a stance became popular in the U.S. The occasional throw away line use to be easily ignorable. Enemy Mine was published in the 70's.

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story's lineage.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.

    The novelization of the movie (which I read) had a co-author, David Gerrold, who wrote several Star Trek episodes/premises, including creating Tribbles. Though, he also appears not to be George RR Martin.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @songbird

    imho, Enemy Mine is just more or less competently written, but ordinary antiwar story of USA-Japanese soldier island fighting for some reason scantily clad in "science fiction alien star wars" trope drag.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @A123
    @songbird



    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.
     
    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.
     
    Most likely, I misremembered. I am pulling details from "deep storage", over a decade ago. The anthology had George RR Martin's name on the outside. And, it and contained both Nightflyers and Sandkings which are among his most memorable short works. It must have been an anthology of multiple authors even though I do not have it mentally filed that way.

    (shrug)

    Mea culpa.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  358. Killing of shroederism is gathering up the steam in Germany:

    The vice-chancellor previously called for new infrastructure at “Tesla speeds.” The American carmaker recently stunned Germans by erecting and opening Gigafactory close to Berlin in a mere two years.

    Unlike German companies, Tesla began construction before receiving its final permits, a model that Habeck now aims to replicate in the efforts of escapin“vice grip” of Kremlin gas.

    “In case of doubt, you have to start acting early. First, dig the trench where the pipe is to go in, then the permit comes,” he said, adding that this process wneed someone who is politically responsible.
    “I am ready for that at any time”, he said.

    Companies are already lining up to realise Habeck’s vision, drawing on the unprecedented amount of political backing and state funding coming. Already, the fiscally-conservative finance minister Christian Lindner has made €3 billion available to support the leasing of floating LNG terminals.
    “Dependence on Russian energy imports must be reduced quickly and sustainably,” tweeted Lindner. “Floating LNG terminals make an important contribution to this, for which we must provide funding,” he added.

    These Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRU) can be moored at Germany’s coastal deepwater harbours and will enable the German utilities to begin receiving shipments of LNG from as far away as the US and Qatar.

    Much of these developments will take place in Wilhelmshaven, which is due to host two of these floating terminals and have a permanent one constructed on land. Together, those projects will provide Germany with the capability to import around 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year, almost matching the Russian gas flows of 40 bcm in 2021.

    But the project pipeline does not end there. In Brunsbüttel, a land terminal with a capacity of 8 bcm will be constructed, where the local government is already rushing through legislation that will limit environmental groups’ ability to delay the project through lawsuits.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germanys-habeck-we-have-to-try-the-unrealistic-to-break-free-from-russian-gas/

  359. @songbird
    @A123

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov's and, I think, Analog.

    The novelization of the movie (which I read) had a co-author, David Gerrold, who wrote several Star Trek episodes/premises, including creating Tribbles. Though, he also appears not to be George RR Martin.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    imho, Enemy Mine is just more or less competently written, but ordinary antiwar story of USA-Japanese soldier island fighting for some reason scantily clad in “science fiction alien star wars” trope drag.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @sudden death

    The antiwar analogy is easy to see, (common in a lot of scifi). But I thought the Drac philosophy about lineage was pretty interesting.

    In order to be counted adults, they need to memorize a long list of their ancestors and their deeds (around 200, that's over >10,000 years) The names repeat after a series of around five. The idea being that names aren't as important as their deeds.

    Any scifi you'd recommend, sudden death?

    Replies: @Adept, @sudden death

  360. @sudden death
    @songbird

    imho, Enemy Mine is just more or less competently written, but ordinary antiwar story of USA-Japanese soldier island fighting for some reason scantily clad in "science fiction alien star wars" trope drag.

    Replies: @songbird

    The antiwar analogy is easy to see, (common in a lot of scifi). But I thought the Drac philosophy about lineage was pretty interesting.

    In order to be counted adults, they need to memorize a long list of their ancestors and their deeds (around 200, that’s over >10,000 years) The names repeat after a series of around five. The idea being that names aren’t as important as their deeds.

    Any scifi you’d recommend, sudden death?

    • Replies: @Adept
    @songbird

    For whatever it's worth, Barry Longyear wrote a series of stories about a large circus ship that was touring a Galactic Empire, but crashed on a habitable, but uninhabited, planet. Left to fend for themselves, the performers and crew formed their own caste-based government (clowns, foremen, and magicians at the top,) and, a few generations and many misadventures later, were forced to make war.

    These stories were collected in "Circus World" and "City of Baraboo." They're extremely good -- whimsical, original, and thought-provoking. I thought that they were far superior to Enemy Mine, which, though clever at times, was a little bit too saccharine and transparently sentimental for my tastes.

    Replies: @Ray P

    , @sudden death
    @songbird

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization with sophisticated traditions and rituals.

    Sadly somehow managed to lose the pleasure of reading any fiction over the years, so my recommendations may be out of date, but my own SF favorites were Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers and Futurological Congress by Stanislaw Lem.

    The first being about human psyche shattering consequences after careless and indifferent, almost accidental, short term alien visitors left the Earth and the latter perhaps being not everyone’s cup of tea, where specific type of dried wit is mixed with lots of frantic crazy psychedelic adventures set in some loose 3rd world chaotic backround, full of imaginary semantics and wordplays, but remember myself cackling like crazy while reading. Was reading both those books in Lithuanian translation, so don’t know whether English translations were successfully done.

    Replies: @songbird

  361. Pixo says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @AP

    In a war both sides commit atrocities, and no one has a clean hand. The victor ends up writing history and wipe their own horrors clean. Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength to clear Ukraine's name.

    Replies: @A123, @Pixo

    “Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength”

    This is endlessly repeated by Russophiles since Week 2 of the war, when signs of Russia’s likely defeat started appearing.

    Seems to me, however, Ukraine is winning *both* the propaganda war and on the fields.

    This shouldn’t be surprising in retrospect. Russia’s tactic of telling endless big and obvious lies is bad propaganda and also bad military strategy. “We aren’t going to invade” “It isn’t a war” “We never intended to take Kiev in the first place.”

    People with pride and self respect recoil at defending such lies. It contributes to demoralization of soldiers and on the homefront.

    Russia’s propaganda war defeat may also have something to do with the lack of help from its supposed ally Belarus.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Pixo

    I agree that the real war vs. propaganda dichotomy has been over-used. They are different: real war is about fighting an enemy and propaganda about controlling domestic population. They don't have much to do with each other until eventually in the future they have to be reconciled.

    So far all sides are winning the propaganda war at home: Kiev, Russia, West, by managing their domestic audiences. But in the long run what matters is who wins the real war. Skillful propaganda can mitigate a loss, but it will be too obvious.

    West previously suppressed lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, even Vietnam - but those wars were far away and allowed domestic opposing views while the wars were taking place. That is not the situation today: West has made Ukraine too central to its life and aggressively suppressed opposing views.

    That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine "winning a war" as they redefined gender and free speech. But the endless redefinitions could have harsh mental consequences on the culture.

    Replies: @Johnny Rico

    , @Wokechoke
    @Pixo

    There’s a difference, the Attack down the Dneiper valley toward Kiev was through Belarus. A very long vulnerable supply line should the Minsk government not want to support the effort.

    The issue in Crimea is very different. There are Russians there. Lots of them. Driving them out requires a genocide.

    The Russians produce their own weaponry and are now aware of what can be thrown at them.

    Replies: @Pixo

  362. @German_reader
    @AP


    Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people.
     
    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres.
    I don't know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs. But I suppose they don't matter as long as the profits for Johnson and his plutocrats keep coming in.

    Replies: @AP, @songbird

    Samo Burja is saying that Europe might someday become categorized as “formerly developed countries.”

    Granted, he doesn’t have a perfect record of prediction, but this one seems plausible to me, for Western Europe. MENA largely appears to be a dump. (semi-exception might be the European part of Turkey, if you take out the migrants).

    Anyway, though I do use it myself, I think the three-tier classification of countries should be retired. IMO, there is too much hubris and complacency in it, and anyway, not enough gradations. Obviously, there is a difference between a place like DRC and Malaysia. Similarly, I think it is pretty clear that there is a difference between places with safe cities with clean public bathrooms (Japan) and places with dangerous cities and poor public bathrooms (the West).

    • Agree: German_reader
  363. @sudden death
    @A123


    building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.
     
    Should be getting at least basic facts right before boasting in humanitarian righteousness - all those dams were built long before UA became independent for the purpose of irrigating agricultural arid lands of northern Crimea and after RF landgrab water pump valves were shut down in order to increase cost of occupation IIRC.

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious as not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    An interesting comparison, water for Crimea – gas for Poland-Bulgaria. Both are voluntary transactions that the supplier had the right to stop. The difference is the way this is treated by the West: one is ignored, the other constantly demonized. Don’t you find that somehow “unfree” or even propaganda? Some balance is needed to have a civilized discourse.

    You get all hot aunder the collar about the “slimy shutting down of gas for the everyday living needs“, but the governments declared that they won’t pay Gazprom. What would you expect? Charity gas?

    I explained before why paying in “euros” is in effect not paying under the current circumstances – euro is a house currency issued by EU and keeping accounts in EU in euros that EU can confiscate doesn’t meet the minimum requirement for a definition of “payment”. Any rational seller would refuse since EU effectively demands that Russia provides the gas for free.

    Poland will be fine, they can start digging for coal again, or cover their Baltic shores with LNG terminals. Or ask Greta what to do.

    Bulgaria not so much, they are clueless and cornered. But Bulgaria is down to barely more than 5-6 million mostly elderly people with almost no industrial activity, maybe Brussels could just send some blankets or even gently suggest easing euthanasia laws. And Bulgaria is perfectly positioned as a migrant repository on the EU borders, this could be a win-win.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html


    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

    Replies: @Beckow

  364. People who record themselves singing showtunes should be banned from holding public office.

  365. @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    “Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength”

    This is endlessly repeated by Russophiles since Week 2 of the war, when signs of Russia’s likely defeat started appearing.

    Seems to me, however, Ukraine is winning *both* the propaganda war and on the fields.

    This shouldn’t be surprising in retrospect. Russia’s tactic of telling endless big and obvious lies is bad propaganda and also bad military strategy. “We aren’t going to invade” “It isn’t a war” “We never intended to take Kiev in the first place.”

    People with pride and self respect recoil at defending such lies. It contributes to demoralization of soldiers and on the homefront.

    Russia’s propaganda war defeat may also have something to do with the lack of help from its supposed ally Belarus.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    I agree that the real war vs. propaganda dichotomy has been over-used. They are different: real war is about fighting an enemy and propaganda about controlling domestic population. They don’t have much to do with each other until eventually in the future they have to be reconciled.

    So far all sides are winning the propaganda war at home: Kiev, Russia, West, by managing their domestic audiences. But in the long run what matters is who wins the real war. Skillful propaganda can mitigate a loss, but it will be too obvious.

    West previously suppressed lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, even Vietnam – but those wars were far away and allowed domestic opposing views while the wars were taking place. That is not the situation today: West has made Ukraine too central to its life and aggressively suppressed opposing views.

    That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine “winning a war” as they redefined gender and free speech. But the endless redefinitions could have harsh mental consequences on the culture.

    • Agree: Wielgus
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    @Beckow

    'That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine “winning a war” '

    Lame. Lame. Lame. You are already back-pedalling.

    To re-define winning it must first be defined.

    So do that. Now.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  366. utu says:
    @German_reader
    @AP


    Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?
     
    Probably not (and I have no idea anyway what Ukrainian soldiers actually have done to pows, or how widespread such actions are). It would still be good though if Ukrainian military authorities told their soldiers not to mistreat pows. Or at least not to be stupid enough to film it and upload it on the internet.

    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.
     
    That's a pretty weird argument. "Redemption" would include punishment for the politicians responsible (not even necessarily prison, confiscation of most of their property might suffice), and consequences for the journalists who promoted the war. None of which has happened. And anyway, I disagree with the idea that decisions for supporting Ukraine should be based on such quasi-religious sentiments.
    Regarding neocon journalists, I just googled Max Boot...and to my great surprise I found he was opposed to a no-fly-zone over Ukraine:
    https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1500821436864339968
    This is just one more piece of evidence what a demented lunatic utu is, he's more extreme even than Max Boot.

    Replies: @utu

    “Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.” …. “That’s a pretty weird argument.”

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can’t afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos” as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt ‘whataboutist’ counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @utu


    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason.
     
    Bit harsh, but AP's arguments do indeed often feel rather forced, and have a chameleon-like quality depending on the interlocutor (it was very weird when he tried to use quasi-pan-Slavist arguments on Karlin). I guess one has to show some tolerance for it, given Ukraine's dire straits.

    your German pacifist anti Americanism
     
    I'm not a pacifist and never have been. I admit to being anti-American, though even regarding that I feel somewhat ambivalent (Russia and China aren't appealing alternatives either). If the US were more of a "normal" country (without endless mass immigration, ever more insane "progressive" ideology and rampant interventionism abroad), I'd be content to accept American leadership of a Western family of nations. But as it is, I can't view American hegemony as an unalloyed good.


    Max Boot is soft head wimp.
     
    Lol. I guess that's a novel take, at least on UR.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Mikel
    @utu


    Max Boot is soft head wimp.
     
    And a well known Putin stooge too :-)
    , @AP
    @utu


    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945
     
    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.


    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”
     
    Is it disparaging? Didn't know that. So in your opinion this article's headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    "Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend"


    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases
     
    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute - in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    Replies: @AP, @utu, @Mikhail

  367. @Pixo
    @Yellowface Anon

    “Russia may be mighty in the fields, but the US is lending propagandistic strength”

    This is endlessly repeated by Russophiles since Week 2 of the war, when signs of Russia’s likely defeat started appearing.

    Seems to me, however, Ukraine is winning *both* the propaganda war and on the fields.

    This shouldn’t be surprising in retrospect. Russia’s tactic of telling endless big and obvious lies is bad propaganda and also bad military strategy. “We aren’t going to invade” “It isn’t a war” “We never intended to take Kiev in the first place.”

    People with pride and self respect recoil at defending such lies. It contributes to demoralization of soldiers and on the homefront.

    Russia’s propaganda war defeat may also have something to do with the lack of help from its supposed ally Belarus.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    There’s a difference, the Attack down the Dneiper valley toward Kiev was through Belarus. A very long vulnerable supply line should the Minsk government not want to support the effort.

    The issue in Crimea is very different. There are Russians there. Lots of them. Driving them out requires a genocide.

    The Russians produce their own weaponry and are now aware of what can be thrown at them.

    • Replies: @Pixo
    @Wokechoke

    I agree Crimea should stay part of Russia.

    I disagree if you are saying later on Russia can replace its losses anytime soon.

  368. @AP
    @German_reader


    British troops at the time would never have butchered defenseless women and children with farm implements like Ukrainian nationalists did
     
    They conveniently didn’t have to; they just incinerated far more women and children from the skies. Ukrainian murderers were just poorer and less technologically advanced than Anglo ones were. You are making excuses based on classicism.

    But it wasn’t always impersonal. One of my grandparents in Germany witnessed an Anglo plane flying low and strafing civilians with machine guns. I think this practice was referred to as “turkey shooting.” An elderly American veteran once old me how he had thrown Japanese POWs out of an airplane without parachutes. They at least weren’t civilians. Is what Ukrainians are done to Russian POWs worse?


    Area bombing was an extreme form of warfare (not mass murder for ethnic cleansing, another difference
     
    In Germany they typically avoided industrial areas (which they could later use themselves) and targeted and attacked residential ones. One of my grandparents, a medical resident in Germany, was often treating survivors and witnessed these crimes.

    I do find the self-righteousness and double standards of a lot of Westerners nauseating
     
    By helping Ukrainians defend themselves from the Russian invaders, the Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

    How much is the CIA paying you for this character?

    It’s quite the hamfisted attempt at Narrative Jamming.

    The English have no idea what they are supporting. Thanks Daily Mail, Times, Telegraph, Mirror, Sun.

  369. @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    They use the justification “no one died”, thus "saneembracing the War Crime of “non-lethal” collective punishment. Whether one is rational “recognizing the crime” or mentally ill “denying the undeniable”, the minimum viable Russian stance for an armistice is obvious.
     
    And we're to succumb to your supposed superior knowledge on this issue, as the arbeiter of who is "sane" and who is "mentally retarded" (I suggest that you look into a mirror to see a clear example of the later).

    If the Russians in Crimea had really wanted any water flowing from the Dnieper, all they had to do was pay for it, but no they didn't. As far as "non-lethal collective punishment", the US Department of State looks at it like this:


    The issue is not that there is coercive action impacting the population collaterally, but rather what that impact is and what mitigating humanitarian measµres are put in place. Therefore, the fact that the fabric of economic life of the civilian population is adversely affected as a result of economic warfare does not, in itself, amount to 'collective punishment.'
     
    https://ccrjustice.org/files/StateDept%205001-5500.pdf

    Take your grievances to the State Department, or to the world court of the OHCHR, although this has already been done by Russia and found to constitute groundless pleas and resulted in unsympathetic responses. The fact that getting water to Crimea can be a costly sort of thing should have been thought through more carefully before Crimea was invaded and absorbed anschluss style into Russia proper.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Erasing Nikolaev should be job 1 for the Russians.

    Especially the mayor. They’ll keep Kherson.

  370. German_reader says:
    @utu
    @German_reader


    "Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq." .... "That’s a pretty weird argument."

     

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the "professional" Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can't afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term "anglos" as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt 'whataboutist' counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel, @AP

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason.

    Bit harsh, but AP’s arguments do indeed often feel rather forced, and have a chameleon-like quality depending on the interlocutor (it was very weird when he tried to use quasi-pan-Slavist arguments on Karlin). I guess one has to show some tolerance for it, given Ukraine’s dire straits.

    your German pacifist anti Americanism

    I’m not a pacifist and never have been. I admit to being anti-American, though even regarding that I feel somewhat ambivalent (Russia and China aren’t appealing alternatives either). If the US were more of a “normal” country (without endless mass immigration, ever more insane “progressive” ideology and rampant interventionism abroad), I’d be content to accept American leadership of a Western family of nations. But as it is, I can’t view American hegemony as an unalloyed good.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Lol. I guess that’s a novel take, at least on UR.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    chameleon-like quality
     
    This is a culture of American democratic citizens, who want to persuade their neighbor to support some activism. Political discussion in America, often sounds like lawyers talking to a judge, although with the disappointing potential reward of attaining a single more vote for your side, or perhaps a donation.

    So, AP is talking to the "low IQ" right-wing, anti-Muslim neighbor (although he lives in elite New England, so there are probably not so many neighbors like this - maybe his cleaning staff), he could focus on the topic of pseudo-Islamic Chechens raping post-Christian ("Ukrainians with Christian roots") Ukrainians.

    If AP talking to the feminist Ivy League professor neighbor, he could discuss Ukrainian culture's heritage of gender equality, with female representations of the monument of independence. If it was a more politically sophisticated person, he could focus about topics of emerging democracy in the postsoviet space.

    He also has skill finding the most effective insult for the interlocutor, who doesn't agree with his viewpoint. So, when I disagree with him he said, that I was sounding like "Andrei Martyanov" (strange kremlinbot grandfather, who is obsessed about large missiles). It's good try, as he knows I'm will respond with a reflexive distaste for my post to be compared with this kind of vulgar people.


    some tolerance for it, given Ukraine’s dire

     

    Although AP is less "Ukrainian activist" than people here claim. E.g. He even supports Trump who didn't give weapons to Ukraine, as I posted last week. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5312715 He also has panglossian views about the war between Ukraine and Russia, before this year and supported loss of one of their best cities - Donetsk.

    He sometimes chooses crazy forum views like "conquistador revisionism" or romanticization of absolutist monarchy, then became attached to those. And he argues more strongly for those, than for Ukraine.

    I would say, usually, he just argues, because he wants people to agree with his views and this is very useful for stimulating the threads.

  371. @Wokechoke
    @Pixo

    There’s a difference, the Attack down the Dneiper valley toward Kiev was through Belarus. A very long vulnerable supply line should the Minsk government not want to support the effort.

    The issue in Crimea is very different. There are Russians there. Lots of them. Driving them out requires a genocide.

    The Russians produce their own weaponry and are now aware of what can be thrown at them.

    Replies: @Pixo

    I agree Crimea should stay part of Russia.

    I disagree if you are saying later on Russia can replace its losses anytime soon.

  372. Climate change-migration will probably displace war-related migration in the coming decades.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Thulean Friend

    That's indeed pretty concerning. iirc there are projections that climate in parts of India could become so bad that humans will be no longer able to live there.
    Unfortunately the climate issue, despite possibly being existential, will probably be another casualty of this new round of great power rivalry.

    , @Peripatetic Commenter
    @Thulean Friend

    Of course, there have never been heat waves before.

  373. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Yevardian


    Basically if no one is already familiar with Zeihan, he basically predicts a future where the USA has chosen to retrench its core intereststo solely the Anglosphere nations, and the global Hobbesian war of all-against-all that he sees resulting from this. He also takes it as a given that China will implode just as spectacularly as it has risen in the past 40 years, with mass-famines, political balkanisation, the works. I don’t pretend to understand anything about that part of the world so I can’t really comment, although judging from his comments on Russia (below), I have a fair amount of doubt regarding how honest that analysis is.
     
    Peter Zeihan is a hustler. His purpose in life is to hustle dollars for Lockheed, Boeing, $Defense_Contract_Corporation, and Peter Zeihan.

    Everybody would do better if they had a purpose in life. Half of my friends at least would give me a really weird look if they heard me use the phrase purpose in life.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Well, the modern world does give it’s denizens a purpose in life. Material acquisition, personal actualization through material acquisition, and transcendence channeled through the submersion of self into other’s political realities!

    In all seriousness though, I agree fully with your point. I find it unutterably sad that we live in a world where purpose in life and honor are treated as truly alien and strange concepts.

  374. German_reader says:
    @Thulean Friend
    Climate change-migration will probably displace war-related migration in the coming decades.

    https://i.imgur.com/4MuLsSB.jpg

    Replies: @German_reader, @Peripatetic Commenter

    That’s indeed pretty concerning. iirc there are projections that climate in parts of India could become so bad that humans will be no longer able to live there.
    Unfortunately the climate issue, despite possibly being existential, will probably be another casualty of this new round of great power rivalry.

  375. 216 says: • Website
    @AP
    @S


    How can the US/UK as nations possibly care about the Ukrainian people if they don’t even care about their own Anglo-Saxons?
     
    I think when speaking of Anglo-Saxon you should probably also include Normans who are overrepresented among the "WASP" elite.

    You're being a bit cynical. I think Spengler was kind of right when he claimed Anglos were Viking heirs who were masters at raids, plunder and commerce. They could be cruel to their victims but treated their own well. Anglo places (USA, Canada, Australia, UK) continue to offer an excellent quality of life to their people. Within these places, WASPS live particularly well. The places in the USA with the highest percentage of English ancestry are great:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/English2000.png

    New England, Utah, the nicest parts of the West Coast.


    The US/UK ‘cares’ about the Ukrainians in the same way a thief ‘cares’ about his mark, a fox cares about his hen, or, a master, his slave. In other words not at all in any positive or good sense.
     
    The Anglo democrat system depends on the consent of the governed (obtained through persuasion/marketing) rather than on stuff like fear of the government, another way that the system is great for its own people. By being shown the very real Russian crimes in Ukraine, the people of the USA and UK are sincerely outraged and want to help. Anglo-Saxons, like most people, are usually decent, and they really do care when shown suffering. There are lots of Anglos even going to Poland in order to volunteer their time and money to help. And they support providing arms to Russia's victim.

    Even at a cynical state level, Ukraine is not the target of plunder by the Anglos. Rather they want Russia and particularly China cut down to size (utu's observation of Russia being the chicken that is killed in order to frighten the monkey is a very good one, but Russia has caused its own problems for the Anglos in the Middle East). Helping Russia's victim, Ukraine, is a very cheap way for the Anglos to do so. So it's an example of justice coinciding with Anglo interests. This is of course very positive for Ukrainians, they are being helped in their desperate struggle for survival because their success and concomitant Russian failure happens to be desired by the Anglos.


    These corrupted Anglo-Saxon elites and their hangers on ‘cared’ more about their slaves, chattel or wage, skilled and unskilled, than their own people.
     
    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Chattel slavery and its trade historically corrupted large and powerful segments of the Anglo-Saxon elites of the United States and United Kingdom. It still does via it’s monetization, wage slavery, ie the so called cheap labor/mass immigration system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state
     
    Well, cheap labor and mass immigration mostly harms poor blacks, non-WASP people such as working class Scotch-Irish or others. It helps the well off Anglos and those who live among them such as non-Anglo upper middle class people.

    Replies: @German_reader, @S, @216

    If this were true it would be more of a Latin American type of place. Most Anglo-Saxons live well in the USA.

    Whites are explicitly discriminated against in the US by a matter of law and custom. The Republican Party cannot win an election in CA or NY because of rampant anti-white racism. The life expectancy of whites went down 2010-20 when it went up for every other group.

    What you are posting is naked subversion. Stop.

  376. I don’t think Ukraine is well served by it’s Western military advisors:

    • Replies: @216
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    We know that the USSR sent pilots into the DPRK and NVA air forces during the respective wars. Both sides got the then state-of-the-art Mig-15 and Mig-21.

    So its justified for the US to send F-35 to Ukraine, and send American pilots reflagged as Ukrainians.

    That the US hasn't done this is evidence of a lack of seriousness.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter

  377. @Thulean Friend
    Climate change-migration will probably displace war-related migration in the coming decades.

    https://i.imgur.com/4MuLsSB.jpg

    Replies: @German_reader, @Peripatetic Commenter

    Of course, there have never been heat waves before.

  378. 216 says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend
    An update on the refugee situation. Sweden has now taken in 34K refugees from Ukraine. Previously the government refused to do prognostications but rather released "scenarios". There are now almost 10 weeks since the war started, so the first actual forecast has been released.

    We're expected to take in 80K Ukrainian refugees (not counting their families, who will be let in at a later stage) this year. Contra rightoid propaganda, we're not slamming the door. Almost 80% of all Ukrainian refugees who have asked for asylum have been granted it, with the remaining 20% most likely being from other countries (e.g. Nigeria) where they can return safely.

    Moreover, the government has said that we're prepared to take in even 200K if it comes to it. The only thing our PM warned about was that we cannot be expected to take a disproportionate share like we did in 2015, which is absolutely correct. This was twisted/misinterpreted on purpose by bad faith actors.

    ---

    I've personally asked several organisations that I've volunteered with in the past if they need any help dealing with the newcomers for "weekend warriors" like myself but the answer I got back is that they've had to tell their permanent staff that much less is needed than anyone expected.

    Swedish society appears to be exceptionally well-prepared to help these people and there is strong social solidarity that I can pick up on in casual conversations with people. It doesn't feel contrived.

    Moreover, as I've noted in the past, we've had a massive cutdown on refugee intake from 2016 onwards. Last year we had barely 11K. Even prior to 2015, we had 50-70K per year. This means we had tons of spare capacity once the war broke out and now the Ukrainians will be beneficiaries of that.

    ---

    Yet it's not all roses. There are many firms creating specific jobs only for Ukrainians, often involving things like cleaning or other service jobs. This has led to complaints from NGOs and non-European immigrants that they are getting privileged access in a way that wasn't the case for Syrians or Afghans.

    I personally question this narrative. As I recall, a huge point of contention was that many of these prior refugees were given gigantic subsidies in the event of getting hired (so as to encourage Swedish firms to get them hired). Some did, but the moment the subventions ended typically the Syrians and Afghans were no longer profitable and subsequently fired. By contrast, no such subventions are available now as far as I can tell, yet companies are more eager to hire.

    ---

    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we're getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you've had the DENK (Denk means "think" in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan's AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called "Nyans" (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.

    They don't have any shot at getting into the national parliament but it's possible that they could pick up a few local council seats for a few major cities, including Stockholm. Their influence is likely to be very marginal but clearly this will increase polarisation and make arguments easier for the far-right. Not a good thing.

    Replies: @216

    Finally, and not related to refugees but local politics, we’re getting out own racial/religious grievance party. In the Netherlands, you’ve had the DENK (Denk means “think” in Dutch) party, which openly seeks to gather votes from moslems and racial minorities. It was started by a bunch of turks with close ties to Erdogan’s AKP.

    Similarly, this current party is called “Nyans” (eng. Nuance) and, like DENK, has also been started by a turkish ethno-nationalist who was excluded after it came out that he had been involved in the ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves.

    This is why every Western land should have an “Anti-Subversion Act” which would summarily deport any dual national that engages in these efforts.

  379. @Mikel
    @Yevardian


    I have quite a few other emigre friends (generally not Armenians though), the ones whose parents insisted on speaking to their children in English mostly ended up imposing their own often bizzare forms of pseudo-American/RP English in their kids, whilst they didn’t learn their parents’ mother tongues either.
     
    That happens, especially at certain cultural levels, but do you speak like your parents? I certainly don't. Even though my parents were not foreign immigrants, they also brought their village accents and forms of speech, both in Basque and Spanish, that I soon learned to avoid.

    It's difficult to avoid passing some of your speech mannerisms on to your children but, as Silvio says, it's also very difficult to prevent them from acquiring the local accent, unless they live in isolated ethnic enclaves. Even young Hispanics around here who live surrounded mostly by their peers tend to speak clean English if they lived all their lives in the US.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Hi Mikel, I realize I missed your question on seeds from the last thread. I don’t do much with planting honestly. I do a lot more with animals since gardens require all the effort in my slamming busy summer building season. My wife and kids do some, but nothing really intensive. I get all my veggies from a local market gardener who uses some of the land at my shop. He keeps me in veggies for free.

    I asked him and he gets stuff from Fedco and Johnny’s Seeds. It doesn’t seem like Linseed should be too exotic to get. Have you checked at a local feed store that sells cover crops seeds, soil amendments, and animals feed and supplies? Usually they have a good selection of stuff like that. I’m not talking about Tractor Supply since they are useless unless one wants some weird “farm” decor. If you find out where the actual farmers go, you should get pointed in the right direction.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks. Johnny's didn't have linseed and is not cheap either but I finally was able to find an online store with reasonable prices. Let's see if I can grow enough to justify the price I paid and keep some of the harvest for future seeding.

    Contrary to what AaronB seems to suggest sometimes, there is a big market for small-scale farming and pretend-homesteaders (like me) all around the US so the products we demand have hobby-like prices. This shows that lots of people are already trying to live in contact with nature.

    Btw, you can't imagine how many times I've used the argument 'why doesn't anyone ever get those prizes for paranormal phenomena'. I remember that in the 90s I was already using it. So it's going to be very interesting to see how this actually works from the inside, though admittedly dowsing is more of a controversial technique than a paranormal phenomenon.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  380. 216 says: • Website
    @Peripatetic Commenter
    I don't think Ukraine is well served by it's Western military advisors:

    https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1520686187194634240

    Replies: @216

    We know that the USSR sent pilots into the DPRK and NVA air forces during the respective wars. Both sides got the then state-of-the-art Mig-15 and Mig-21.

    So its justified for the US to send F-35 to Ukraine, and send American pilots reflagged as Ukrainians.

    That the US hasn’t done this is evidence of a lack of seriousness.

    • Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter
    @216

    There is another explanation.

    It could be evidence that they know they would get their asses handed to them.

  381. @Mikhail
    Good to know:

    https://www.rt.com/news/554797-annalena-baerbock-heckled-ukraine/

    New administrations in Germany, US and UK.

    Replies: @LatW

    Wow, one can really see the class differences there between supporters and non-supporters. All those booing are from a lower class (visibly underpaid middle age dudes). Like in other places in Europe and the US.

    P.s. On good news, it looks like the long-awaited evacuation of civilians from Azovstal will take place. Fingers crossed. There are very young children stuck there.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @LatW

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fRycddZZRU

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes may think theses deaths are the result of the CIA assisting the Ukraine with the targeting Russian of generals. Silly fellows! Like this is some kind of proxy war in which Ukraine is going to join the long list of countries that pay for America's failures in such wars. I can guarantee that the Russian army is never going to forget this.

    Replies: @LatW

  382. @216
    @Peripatetic Commenter

    We know that the USSR sent pilots into the DPRK and NVA air forces during the respective wars. Both sides got the then state-of-the-art Mig-15 and Mig-21.

    So its justified for the US to send F-35 to Ukraine, and send American pilots reflagged as Ukrainians.

    That the US hasn't done this is evidence of a lack of seriousness.

    Replies: @Peripatetic Commenter

    There is another explanation.

    It could be evidence that they know they would get their asses handed to them.

  383. @Triteleia Laxa
    3 factual observations:

    1. Mariupol is still not conquered. Ukrainian resistance stands.

    2. There's no Russian breakthrough in Donbas, or cauldron or encirclement.

    3. The Ukrainian military already retake territory East of Kharkhiv.

    So how does Russia win? Continue to grind out a few kilometres a day in the Donbas?

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties. Nevermind losing ground elsewhere.

    Russia is probably two weeks, at most, from exhaustion on this effort, and they might take 50 kilometres in that time. This is dismal. They withdrew much further in a day after their Kyiv advance failed.

    Furthermore, Ukraine are already reinforcing with significant reserves and new Western equipment is beginning to filter into the frontline from when it was delivered 6 weeks ago, but needed to be trained on. For example, there is now footage of the switchblade drones.

    If what happened 6 weeks ago is coming through now, then what happened 5 weeks ago will come through next week etc. Therefore we should all know the avalanche that is coming. The next 6 weeks balance of power is baked in.

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late. It'll take at least a month for it to have an effect. It is likely that the Russian advance will be checked by then, even in their much more limited and concentrated operations since their defeat and retreat in the North. And then Ukraine will be able to exploit as they see fit.

    No expert has called Russian defeat in the Donbas in their current main effort, but you can expect to see the bolder ones do so over the next few days. In a week, almost all will. In 2 weeks, or thereabouts, Ritter, MacGregor et al. will be discussing some sort of Russian "super manoeuvre feint." Or ranting about the irrelevant vanity project "Khinzal." Or some other completely idiotic distraction.

    Essentially, the story of the last 10 days is that despite taking the easiest ground in Ukraine, Russia is taking so little, and what is easiest to take is also easiest to take back.

    And since Russia can't breakthrough on the ground that is most favourable to them, Russia can hardly expect to force the Kyiv government into surrender.

    We are 70 days in and Russia has not yet even taken a Ukrainian city that has resisted. Nor can they operate in the air unimpeded, nevermind the ground.

    I wrote the following to Anatoly more than 6 weeks ago. I could literally write the same thing today and it would still be true. It was shocking and not believed by Russian partisans then. So how insanely more shocking must it be for them now:

    This is a good attempt to be positive, but let’s be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

    1. Achieve air supremacy.

    2. Occupy Mariupol.

    It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

    3. Occupy Kharkiv.

    4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

    5. Occupy Odesa.

    6. Occupy Kyiv.

    This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

    7. Occupy Lviv

    How’s this going to happen?

    8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

    Good luck!

    9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

    Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

    Since you’re still struggling with “1” and have no plans for anything above “4”, I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers’ peace tonight.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @LatW, @Triteleia Laxa

  384. Sean says:
    @Matra
    @Ron Unz

    I'm originally from N Ireland and have relatives who've been in both the highest levels of government security and one paramilitary (ie.terrorist) organisation. Nobody who lives there takes seriously these accusations of US involvement in these killings. Carrying out an assassination in Ireland of a political rival is almost comically easy when compared to the US or Britain. Powell was always like a fish out of water in Ulster. He never really understood the place, including his own voters.

    Replies: @Sean

    Airey Neave was killed in the House of Commons underground car park, not Coalisland and Powell was not without contacts in the security services. The ex deputy head of MI6 for example. The post Brexit current problems over the status of Northern Ireland show that Powell understood the issues in that Province rather well, better that the people who lived there one might say. Powell was the original Briexiteer, and his ideal of complete integration of NI into the UK was shared by the Official Unionist leader. Integration of NI into the UK was the lost dangerous veiw to hold in NI, and if I recall correctly one Unionist who tried to participate in elections as a an official British Conservative Party candidate was proptly murdered. On a trip to Dublin Paisley once talked to reporters of NI joining the Republic if there were certain guarantees. Powell understood an undercovers unification was what the NI Office policy was, and implacably opposed it. And he also knew that since Suez the British Civil Service echoed what the American view was and America wanted the EU as an adjunct to Nato. There is a lot uncertain about who was actually running the INLA, it certainly was not just Dominic McGlinchey, whatever Tim Pat Coogan credulously wrote. The targeting of their assasinination may well have had American conections

    In 1949 Powell wrote an article entitled ‘ The Atomic Bomb May Not Be Used’. He was also dubious about the Russian army being all that effective, and certain that Germany thought Russia had no intention of trying to conquer Western Europe. Powell saw Germany as power mad, it does not seem to be but it is cocooned within Nato so is a defence freeloaders while economically a powerhouse getting access to th US market as vallied ”ally” (ditto Japan, NK and Taiwan).

    Powell speech from 1971

    We shall not, I presume, be told that the EEC is the transitional stage towards a political unit which would include Russia. I confess to insurmountable personal difficulty in imagining a political unit – ‘family’, the bishop called it – from the North Cape to Sicily, from the Shannon to the Elbe; but only a lunatic could imagine a political unit from the Shannon to Vladivostock. No; the answer we receive is that a politically united Western Europe will be more capable of waging war successfully with Russia and her allies and therefore arguably is less likely to be involved in it.

    […]. On the other hand, if Germany is to be reunified, the most dangerous form of that reunification would be the addition, if it could be imagined, of East Germany to a politically unified Western Europe, presenting to the East the spectacle and prospect of a huge power confronting and threatening it. This would be all the more so, if that politically united Western Europe already included the British Isles. It follows that, if Germany’s future is the apprehended danger to the peace of Europe, that danger is not diminished but enhanced by the Community as an instrument of political unification…

    In 1993 Yeltsin was attempting to get Russia accepted into the procedure for joining Nato, and officially asked President Clinton for a halt of expansion of Nato eastwards as a breach of at least the spirit of the 1990 treaty ending the Cold War. Yeltsin got the runaround on both counts; he then choose as his successor certain V. Putin.

  385. @utu
    @German_reader


    "Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq." .... "That’s a pretty weird argument."

     

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the "professional" Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can't afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term "anglos" as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt 'whataboutist' counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel, @AP

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    And a well known Putin stooge too 🙂

  386. Sean says:
    @LatW
    @Mikhail

    Wow, one can really see the class differences there between supporters and non-supporters. All those booing are from a lower class (visibly underpaid middle age dudes). Like in other places in Europe and the US.

    P.s. On good news, it looks like the long-awaited evacuation of civilians from Azovstal will take place. Fingers crossed. There are very young children stuck there.

    Replies: @Sean

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes may think theses deaths are the result of the CIA assisting the Ukraine with the targeting Russian of generals. Silly fellows! Like this is some kind of proxy war in which Ukraine is going to join the long list of countries that pay for America’s failures in such wars. I can guarantee that the Russian army is never going to forget this.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Sean

    re:Gerasimov. If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc), then this is a grandiose hit. If this is true, more info will come out soon. And, btw, that general area around Izyum is very tricky, already during WW2 there were savage battles there (in much, much larger numbers). They are currently fighting on the bones of those fallen soldiers from WW2. Another layer... yes, May 9 will be different this year.


    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes
     
    Sorry, I didn't phrase that right, they're not "underpaid" but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms). I totally understand their situation. I don't judge them, as long as they don't hurt others. It's also not fair for them to be in that situation when all these "Greens" or upper class overeducated types just get government jobs and end up in a structurally better position where they look down on those guys. It shouldn't be that way in Europe. And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It's just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    Replies: @Sean

  387. There are some really funny people out there:

  388. Mikel says:
    @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Hi Mikel, I realize I missed your question on seeds from the last thread. I don't do much with planting honestly. I do a lot more with animals since gardens require all the effort in my slamming busy summer building season. My wife and kids do some, but nothing really intensive. I get all my veggies from a local market gardener who uses some of the land at my shop. He keeps me in veggies for free.

    I asked him and he gets stuff from Fedco and Johnny's Seeds. It doesn't seem like Linseed should be too exotic to get. Have you checked at a local feed store that sells cover crops seeds, soil amendments, and animals feed and supplies? Usually they have a good selection of stuff like that. I'm not talking about Tractor Supply since they are useless unless one wants some weird "farm" decor. If you find out where the actual farmers go, you should get pointed in the right direction.

    Replies: @Mikel

    Thanks. Johnny’s didn’t have linseed and is not cheap either but I finally was able to find an online store with reasonable prices. Let’s see if I can grow enough to justify the price I paid and keep some of the harvest for future seeding.

    Contrary to what AaronB seems to suggest sometimes, there is a big market for small-scale farming and pretend-homesteaders (like me) all around the US so the products we demand have hobby-like prices. This shows that lots of people are already trying to live in contact with nature.

    Btw, you can’t imagine how many times I’ve used the argument ‘why doesn’t anyone ever get those prizes for paranormal phenomena’. I remember that in the 90s I was already using it. So it’s going to be very interesting to see how this actually works from the inside, though admittedly dowsing is more of a controversial technique than a paranormal phenomenon.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    I agree that there is a huge market for back-to-the-earth stuff. I find this to exemplified by Mother Earth News which used to be really quirky and interesting, and now has tractor ads every other page in between articles like "13 Chicken Grooming Techniques for Your Flock" or "How to Milk Your Goat Without Ruining Your Manicure". Okay...that's an exaggeration, though not a huge one.

    It's certainly turned into a consumer thing in many ways with the idea that you can't do anything without a $35,000 Kubota tractor and a ton of other very specialized stuff. But everything gets turned into a consumer marketing gimmick nowadays. As was noted above in the thread, when Che Guevara gets turned into a consumer commodity, that says it all.

    The hobby prices of small scale ag stuff reminds of horse items. The same object for a cow will be half the price of a horse version... just of it's perception as being high end. It is possible to avoid the high costs in large part, but it takes seeking out the alternatives. For example, I have a Mennonite farm supply place near me that carries just about everything usually at prices better than online anywhere. I just got a set of chains for my backhoe for $200 less than anywhere online and they had them on the shelf. I was pretty darned happy!

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don't really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world. I talk to quite a few people who have very idealized ideas of farm life or a more "natural" life. I suppose they don't really want that life, but they like the idea of the fantasy version. Such can be an easy mark for advertisers who promise the homesteader experience though insulated from the uncertainty and inconvenience by expert advice and state of the art equipment. Well, that's largely an illusion but I suppose getting the tractor sold is all the dealer is really concerned with!

    On the dowsing, I was interested in why you think that dowsing would be more controversial than other categories paranormal phenomenon? I would think it would be somewhat less than something like spirits or ghosts, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you meant.

    Replies: @Mikel

  389. LatW says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    3 factual observations:

    1. Mariupol is still not conquered. Ukrainian resistance stands.

    2. There's no Russian breakthrough in Donbas, or cauldron or encirclement.

    3. The Ukrainian military already retake territory East of Kharkhiv.

    So how does Russia win? Continue to grind out a few kilometres a day in the Donbas?

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties. Nevermind losing ground elsewhere.

    Russia is probably two weeks, at most, from exhaustion on this effort, and they might take 50 kilometres in that time. This is dismal. They withdrew much further in a day after their Kyiv advance failed.

    Furthermore, Ukraine are already reinforcing with significant reserves and new Western equipment is beginning to filter into the frontline from when it was delivered 6 weeks ago, but needed to be trained on. For example, there is now footage of the switchblade drones.

    If what happened 6 weeks ago is coming through now, then what happened 5 weeks ago will come through next week etc. Therefore we should all know the avalanche that is coming. The next 6 weeks balance of power is baked in.

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late. It'll take at least a month for it to have an effect. It is likely that the Russian advance will be checked by then, even in their much more limited and concentrated operations since their defeat and retreat in the North. And then Ukraine will be able to exploit as they see fit.

    No expert has called Russian defeat in the Donbas in their current main effort, but you can expect to see the bolder ones do so over the next few days. In a week, almost all will. In 2 weeks, or thereabouts, Ritter, MacGregor et al. will be discussing some sort of Russian "super manoeuvre feint." Or ranting about the irrelevant vanity project "Khinzal." Or some other completely idiotic distraction.

    Essentially, the story of the last 10 days is that despite taking the easiest ground in Ukraine, Russia is taking so little, and what is easiest to take is also easiest to take back.

    And since Russia can't breakthrough on the ground that is most favourable to them, Russia can hardly expect to force the Kyiv government into surrender.

    We are 70 days in and Russia has not yet even taken a Ukrainian city that has resisted. Nor can they operate in the air unimpeded, nevermind the ground.

    I wrote the following to Anatoly more than 6 weeks ago. I could literally write the same thing today and it would still be true. It was shocking and not believed by Russian partisans then. So how insanely more shocking must it be for them now:

    This is a good attempt to be positive, but let’s be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

    1. Achieve air supremacy.

    2. Occupy Mariupol.

    It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

    3. Occupy Kharkiv.

    4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

    5. Occupy Odesa.

    6. Occupy Kyiv.

    This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

    7. Occupy Lviv

    How’s this going to happen?

    8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

    Good luck!

    9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

    Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

    Since you’re still struggling with “1” and have no plans for anything above “4”, I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers’ peace tonight.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @LatW, @Triteleia Laxa

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties.

    That’s exactly what it’s called – “mobile” or “maneuverable” defense. It’s what the Ukrainian military experts have been calling it for weeks. The troops advance, but also retreat in small areas, if needed. The Ukrainians are fighting a modern war, while the Russians seem to be doing what they learned in their academy (entirely theoretical based on WW2 experience) or even Moltke style. Interesting whether the Ukrainians learned it themselves after 2014, or if it was the NATO instructors who advised them on this, probably a combination of both.

    [MORE]

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late

    Yes, it is late, it would take at least a month to get it ready. Plus, they’d have to supply everybody.

    Russia just went from an authoritarian country to a totalitarian one during the past year, accelerating in the last few months. The hardcore vatnik side is calling for the destruction of Ukraine, but out of those 70% who support the war, the majority are silent. That’s the consensus between the elites and the population (either open support with the letter Z, etc., or silent agreement).

    If they announce a mobilization, many in this silent population will react negatively or possibly even with panic (which might cause many young men to try to leave Russia). They may start wondering about where their splendid Armed forces are and why is a mobilization needed at all. Remember, how they used to say “The professionals will do the job”.

    It’s incredible, even Girkin-Strelkov warned about this months ago (all his rants can be found on a little YouTube channel called Roi TV from way back where he was warning about this).

    Hypothetically, they can put 18 million to arms, however, in this case Russia itself is not attacked (so what is the motivation?) and these are all people with no military experience, with families, jobs & other obligations. Even if you train them for a month, it is way too long (as you said), the Ukrainian side will not wait for them to be ready but will continue clearing out the land from the enemy. A month of training is laughable, they’ll be sent to a sure death. If people are given a choice of an arrest or sure death, they will choose arrest.

    It’s also possible that the Kremlin doesn’t even want to pass out weapons to such a large population. Who knows which way those weapons could turn.

    But they could try a mobilization in the Southern regions of Russia.

    I remember way back when I first heard the term “Rosgvardia”, I immediately thought they are forming a territorial militia across all of Russia (where civilians would practice once a month and be given arms like it is in Finland & the Baltic States). I thought it would become a formidable and impressive force. But it turned out that Rosgvardia is for policing political dissent, as well as small scale attacks that they did around Kyiv.

    Other “interesting” signs of the low morale in the Russian army – the Kadyrov’s gang had a skirmish with Buryat soldiers, where 10 soldiers were killed. It seems that the Kadyrov’s gang are put in place to police the Russian soldiers from deserting, the function of the NKVD during WW2. So brutal…

    Apparently, Gerasimov traveled to Izyum to lead the operation from there, this is very rare as they typically do not leave the General Headquarters. His career and reputation are on the line here. Today I heard some crazy news that he might be wounded, I don’t believe that though.

    Having said all that, unfortunately, they can still do a lot of damage and the boys are dying in large numbers. 🙁

  390. @Triteleia Laxa
    @S

    Your argument here is the reductio ad absurdum of the "dissident right."

    "If someone doesn't care about the Great Replacement theory, then they therefore care about nothing and are hateful and nihilistic and cynical and corrupt."

    Well the vast majority of people don't care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don't, and many of them are very loving and caring individuals who just don't conform to your ideological worldview.

    It is tough, but them not caring about the one thing you've managed to learn to care about, does not make them sociopaths.

    Really, you can do a lot better and be infinitely more effective for your cause, our cause, by actually thinking deeply and developing an understanding of other people and not just relying on such trash simplifications.

    Improve yourself man!

    Replies: @songbird

    Well the vast majority of people don’t care about the Great Replacement theory. I do, but they don’t

    Renaud Camus coined the term Grand Remplacement. “Theory” was not a part of it, but is clearly a partisan additive, meant to weaken or disarm the power of the idea, and to lower the status of people promoting it, by calling into question their sanity.

    You will not find the equal of the term anywhere (“____ theory”), where it might call into question progressive policy. No matter the scientific basis, for questioning the axioms.

    The term “Great Replacement theory” itself is a validation of the idea. If they did not care, they would not take the effort to call it into question or denounce it.

  391. LatW says:
    @Sean
    @LatW

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fRycddZZRU

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes may think theses deaths are the result of the CIA assisting the Ukraine with the targeting Russian of generals. Silly fellows! Like this is some kind of proxy war in which Ukraine is going to join the long list of countries that pay for America's failures in such wars. I can guarantee that the Russian army is never going to forget this.

    Replies: @LatW

    re:Gerasimov. If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc), then this is a grandiose hit. If this is true, more info will come out soon. And, btw, that general area around Izyum is very tricky, already during WW2 there were savage battles there (in much, much larger numbers). They are currently fighting on the bones of those fallen soldiers from WW2. Another layer… yes, May 9 will be different this year.

    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms). I totally understand their situation. I don’t judge them, as long as they don’t hurt others. It’s also not fair for them to be in that situation when all these “Greens” or upper class overeducated types just get government jobs and end up in a structurally better position where they look down on those guys. It shouldn’t be that way in Europe. And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @LatW


    If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc)
     
    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff) is surely due to America's Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes. Nine generals and 36 colonels. I do not think General Milley is going to having having any cozy chats with his Russian counterpart the way he was with the Chinese one about preventing nuclear war. And targeting generals means the ones around Putin having seen their mentors killed will be more or less willing to obey and order from Putin to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? I would not bet on the Russians being unable to solve the technical problems of removing a thermonuclear weapon from thits repository and taking it to the battlefields without the DIA knowing about it.

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms).
     
    They have that in common with Russia then.

    And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.
     
    There is far more inequality. Wages are being held down by immigration, and the elites are filling up with immigrants too. It was an Indian that designed the sanctions against Russia that caught Putin's financial geniuses with their pants down (0.8 trillion down the toilet). More than 60 percent of those working in computer, mathematics and engineering fields in Silicon Valley are foreign born, Silicon Valley's Indians have much to do with the big tech firms not paying a reasonable amount of taxes on their profits? It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    Replies: @LatW, @Wokechoke

  392. @Triteleia Laxa
    What's the point of this war for Russia?

    Anything, but taking almost of Ukraine makes, even in Russian terms, attempts at supposed "demilitarisation" and "denazification" counter-productive.

    Ukraine will be a lot more NATO, a lot more anti-Russian and a lot more militarised after this war than before, especially the longer it goes on.

    As for territory, Russia has plenty of land already, and they controlled the bits of Ukraine that were most appropriate (Crimea etc) before the war. There was very little fighting and Ukrainians were sort of accepting of it.

    But now Ukraine will not accept it and Russia will have an eternal insurgency to deal with, and a constant conventional threat. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia.

    And it is extremely obvious that they have no ability to take Kyiv, so...yeah, well, what's the point?

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO, not because they are not bloodthirsty enough, but because they are too weak and incompetent?

    To murder some Ukrainians?

    To destroy the Russian military?

    To forge a united Ukrainian nation in the fires of war?

    To make NATO 10 times stronger and to empower Western militarists?

    To make the Iraq war look good?

    To discredit their own ruling system?

    To destroy the election chances of Putin-sympathetic Western nationalist leaders?

    To make a joke out of Russia's gas station economy?

    What?

    Maybe even to lose to Ukraine?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Derer

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhid president.

  393. @Triteleia Laxa
    What's the point of this war for Russia?

    Anything, but taking almost of Ukraine makes, even in Russian terms, attempts at supposed "demilitarisation" and "denazification" counter-productive.

    Ukraine will be a lot more NATO, a lot more anti-Russian and a lot more militarised after this war than before, especially the longer it goes on.

    As for territory, Russia has plenty of land already, and they controlled the bits of Ukraine that were most appropriate (Crimea etc) before the war. There was very little fighting and Ukrainians were sort of accepting of it.

    But now Ukraine will not accept it and Russia will have an eternal insurgency to deal with, and a constant conventional threat. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia.

    And it is extremely obvious that they have no ability to take Kyiv, so...yeah, well, what's the point?

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO, not because they are not bloodthirsty enough, but because they are too weak and incompetent?

    To murder some Ukrainians?

    To destroy the Russian military?

    To forge a united Ukrainian nation in the fires of war?

    To make NATO 10 times stronger and to empower Western militarists?

    To make the Iraq war look good?

    To discredit their own ruling system?

    To destroy the election chances of Putin-sympathetic Western nationalist leaders?

    To make a joke out of Russia's gas station economy?

    What?

    Maybe even to lose to Ukraine?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Derer

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

  394. @Beckow
    @sudden death

    An interesting comparison, water for Crimea - gas for Poland-Bulgaria. Both are voluntary transactions that the supplier had the right to stop. The difference is the way this is treated by the West: one is ignored, the other constantly demonized. Don't you find that somehow "unfree" or even propaganda? Some balance is needed to have a civilized discourse.

    You get all hot aunder the collar about the "slimy shutting down of gas for the everyday living needs", but the governments declared that they won't pay Gazprom. What would you expect? Charity gas?

    I explained before why paying in "euros" is in effect not paying under the current circumstances - euro is a house currency issued by EU and keeping accounts in EU in euros that EU can confiscate doesn't meet the minimum requirement for a definition of "payment". Any rational seller would refuse since EU effectively demands that Russia provides the gas for free.

    Poland will be fine, they can start digging for coal again, or cover their Baltic shores with LNG terminals. Or ask Greta what to do.

    Bulgaria not so much, they are clueless and cornered. But Bulgaria is down to barely more than 5-6 million mostly elderly people with almost no industrial activity, maybe Brussels could just send some blankets or even gently suggest easing euthanasia laws. And Bulgaria is perfectly positioned as a migrant repository on the EU borders, this could be a win-win.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html

    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    The losses are small compared to the population of Ukraine. Even more so in Russia.

    Ukraine has 35-40 million people, there are a few million men 18-25. Even the upper limit for losses is around 30-50k, or less than 3-5% - and many are older with a sprinkling of foreigners.

    What matters more are the attitudes of survivors: how happy are they with Zelensky sending them into a no-win situation? There will be some returning super-patriots angry that more wasn't done. But the mass of survivors after the war will be angry that Zelensky allowed this to happen, and cheered on the desperate struggle. People do not take kindly to elites who see them as a disposable symbol.

    Unless Kiev pulls a miracle and somehow wins the war, the current leadership will emigrate and most-likely a very level-headed bunch of locals angry at everyone - Zelensky, Galicians, Nato, Russia - will take over. It will be back to borsht. Or something like what happened in Chechnia will happen in Ukraine.

    West underestimates how much people dislike being designated as sacrificial lambs.

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

  395. Sean says:
    @LatW
    @Sean

    re:Gerasimov. If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc), then this is a grandiose hit. If this is true, more info will come out soon. And, btw, that general area around Izyum is very tricky, already during WW2 there were savage battles there (in much, much larger numbers). They are currently fighting on the bones of those fallen soldiers from WW2. Another layer... yes, May 9 will be different this year.


    The visibly underpaid middle age dudes
     
    Sorry, I didn't phrase that right, they're not "underpaid" but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms). I totally understand their situation. I don't judge them, as long as they don't hurt others. It's also not fair for them to be in that situation when all these "Greens" or upper class overeducated types just get government jobs and end up in a structurally better position where they look down on those guys. It shouldn't be that way in Europe. And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It's just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    Replies: @Sean

    If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc)

    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff) is surely due to America’s Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes. Nine generals and 36 colonels. I do not think General Milley is going to having having any cozy chats with his Russian counterpart the way he was with the Chinese one about preventing nuclear war. And targeting generals means the ones around Putin having seen their mentors killed will be more or less willing to obey and order from Putin to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? I would not bet on the Russians being unable to solve the technical problems of removing a thermonuclear weapon from thits repository and taking it to the battlefields without the DIA knowing about it.

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms).

    They have that in common with Russia then.

    And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.

    There is far more inequality. Wages are being held down by immigration, and the elites are filling up with immigrants too. It was an Indian that designed the sanctions against Russia that caught Putin’s financial geniuses with their pants down (0.8 trillion down the toilet). More than 60 percent of those working in computer, mathematics and engineering fields in Silicon Valley are foreign born, Silicon Valley’s Indians have much to do with the big tech firms not paying a reasonable amount of taxes on their profits? It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Sean


    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff)
     
    It looks like this did happen, at least Arestovych said that 30 officers were killed there. If this is true, then this is a massively successful hit.


    is surely due to America’s Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes.
     
    In Ukraine it's common knowledge that the Americans are providing real time intelligence assistance. Even before the attacks, this is partly why there were initial successes. The Ukrainians might have their own resources, remember that for them this is a do or die situation (pun unintended).

    Btw, there's no confirmation re: Gerasimov even being there. However, Arestovych said that they destroyed a special forces unit that was supposedly guarding someone of high stature.

    Modern economy... They have that in common with Russia then.
     
    That's a good observation.

    It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?
     
    Of course, not (even if these elites can march on for a while). This bothers me, as I already mentioned above. When you start touching on class issues (especially mixed in with foreigners), it can become very ugly.

    I wouldn't want Ukraine getting mixed in with the Western European class struggles (for the lack of a better word).
    , @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    If these intelligence collisions hitting generals can be traced, I would not want to be a staff officer in the western military around about now. Of course wouldn’t want to be top brass in Russia either. Historically in war it was the commander who got killed. Lower ranks often changed sides according to pay offers.

  396. @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    25 year old subalterns leading grey beards. That’s the Ukrainian grenadiers/grognards/jägers/guards reduced to. Walking out of combat through a forested area.

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exhausted-ukrainian-soldiers-return-eastern-130359514.html


    This can’t last much longer.

    I suppose it is possible that the Ukrainians are holding a reserve of young men to fight but I’m not convinced they have not already lost the flower of their 18-25 men.

    It is a shame to see this happen. Almost makes me hope there is a planned offensive with a retooled Ukraine strategic reserve. They appear to be decent soldiers. Such loses on behalf of a Zhidozenskyy president.

    Replies: @Beckow

    The losses are small compared to the population of Ukraine. Even more so in Russia.

    Ukraine has 35-40 million people, there are a few million men 18-25. Even the upper limit for losses is around 30-50k, or less than 3-5% – and many are older with a sprinkling of foreigners.

    What matters more are the attitudes of survivors: how happy are they with Zelensky sending them into a no-win situation? There will be some returning super-patriots angry that more wasn’t done. But the mass of survivors after the war will be angry that Zelensky allowed this to happen, and cheered on the desperate struggle. People do not take kindly to elites who see them as a disposable symbol.

    Unless Kiev pulls a miracle and somehow wins the war, the current leadership will emigrate and most-likely a very level-headed bunch of locals angry at everyone – Zelensky, Galicians, Nato, Russia – will take over. It will be back to borsht. Or something like what happened in Chechnia will happen in Ukraine.

    West underestimates how much people dislike being designated as sacrificial lambs.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Beckow

    Zelensky's inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly and the nationalists who attained so much influence under Poroshenko would not let him or to put it another way, he would not have been reelected because Poroshenko would say 'I told you he would sell out'.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    Theyve not got more than 20,000 warriors. That’s not to say a middle aged man can’t fight well, but he’s supposed to be a mechanic, electrician, construction engineer etc at that age. Not a killer. War is a young arrogant man’s trade. If leavened with a few bully boy NCOs and upper class gallants that’s good enough for a prosperous nation.

  397. Sean says:
    @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    The losses are small compared to the population of Ukraine. Even more so in Russia.

    Ukraine has 35-40 million people, there are a few million men 18-25. Even the upper limit for losses is around 30-50k, or less than 3-5% - and many are older with a sprinkling of foreigners.

    What matters more are the attitudes of survivors: how happy are they with Zelensky sending them into a no-win situation? There will be some returning super-patriots angry that more wasn't done. But the mass of survivors after the war will be angry that Zelensky allowed this to happen, and cheered on the desperate struggle. People do not take kindly to elites who see them as a disposable symbol.

    Unless Kiev pulls a miracle and somehow wins the war, the current leadership will emigrate and most-likely a very level-headed bunch of locals angry at everyone - Zelensky, Galicians, Nato, Russia - will take over. It will be back to borsht. Or something like what happened in Chechnia will happen in Ukraine.

    West underestimates how much people dislike being designated as sacrificial lambs.

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

    Zelensky’s inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly and the nationalists who attained so much influence under Poroshenko would not let him or to put it another way, he would not have been reelected because Poroshenko would say ‘I told you he would sell out’.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Sean


    ...Zelensky’s inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly
     
    Ze got 70% promising peace and then went for war. Poroshko got less than 15%, he was in no position to be elected again.

    Zelensky abandoned his peace platform and what he is doing now is not helping. Minsk 2 was a better deal than where Ukraine is heading with this war. Ukrainians know it and there is no way for Ze to twist it into a victory. So there will be consequences and he will simply leave and live somewhere else with his millions.

  398. Adept says:
    @songbird
    @sudden death

    The antiwar analogy is easy to see, (common in a lot of scifi). But I thought the Drac philosophy about lineage was pretty interesting.

    In order to be counted adults, they need to memorize a long list of their ancestors and their deeds (around 200, that's over >10,000 years) The names repeat after a series of around five. The idea being that names aren't as important as their deeds.

    Any scifi you'd recommend, sudden death?

    Replies: @Adept, @sudden death

    For whatever it’s worth, Barry Longyear wrote a series of stories about a large circus ship that was touring a Galactic Empire, but crashed on a habitable, but uninhabited, planet. Left to fend for themselves, the performers and crew formed their own caste-based government (clowns, foremen, and magicians at the top,) and, a few generations and many misadventures later, were forced to make war.

    These stories were collected in “Circus World” and “City of Baraboo.” They’re extremely good — whimsical, original, and thought-provoking. I thought that they were far superior to Enemy Mine, which, though clever at times, was a little bit too saccharine and transparently sentimental for my tastes.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Ray P
    @Adept

    It was a literal Clown World. Reminiscent of Philip K. Dick's novel Clans of the Alphane Moon where a planet is taken over by the inmates of an asylum who form a caste system based on their mental difficulties. Also there is Showboat World by Jack Vance.

    Replies: @Adept

  399. @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    The losses are small compared to the population of Ukraine. Even more so in Russia.

    Ukraine has 35-40 million people, there are a few million men 18-25. Even the upper limit for losses is around 30-50k, or less than 3-5% - and many are older with a sprinkling of foreigners.

    What matters more are the attitudes of survivors: how happy are they with Zelensky sending them into a no-win situation? There will be some returning super-patriots angry that more wasn't done. But the mass of survivors after the war will be angry that Zelensky allowed this to happen, and cheered on the desperate struggle. People do not take kindly to elites who see them as a disposable symbol.

    Unless Kiev pulls a miracle and somehow wins the war, the current leadership will emigrate and most-likely a very level-headed bunch of locals angry at everyone - Zelensky, Galicians, Nato, Russia - will take over. It will be back to borsht. Or something like what happened in Chechnia will happen in Ukraine.

    West underestimates how much people dislike being designated as sacrificial lambs.

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

    Theyve not got more than 20,000 warriors. That’s not to say a middle aged man can’t fight well, but he’s supposed to be a mechanic, electrician, construction engineer etc at that age. Not a killer. War is a young arrogant man’s trade. If leavened with a few bully boy NCOs and upper class gallants that’s good enough for a prosperous nation.

  400. LatW says:
    @Sean
    @LatW


    If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc)
     
    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff) is surely due to America's Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes. Nine generals and 36 colonels. I do not think General Milley is going to having having any cozy chats with his Russian counterpart the way he was with the Chinese one about preventing nuclear war. And targeting generals means the ones around Putin having seen their mentors killed will be more or less willing to obey and order from Putin to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? I would not bet on the Russians being unable to solve the technical problems of removing a thermonuclear weapon from thits repository and taking it to the battlefields without the DIA knowing about it.

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms).
     
    They have that in common with Russia then.

    And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.
     
    There is far more inequality. Wages are being held down by immigration, and the elites are filling up with immigrants too. It was an Indian that designed the sanctions against Russia that caught Putin's financial geniuses with their pants down (0.8 trillion down the toilet). More than 60 percent of those working in computer, mathematics and engineering fields in Silicon Valley are foreign born, Silicon Valley's Indians have much to do with the big tech firms not paying a reasonable amount of taxes on their profits? It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    Replies: @LatW, @Wokechoke

    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff)

    It looks like this did happen, at least Arestovych said that 30 officers were killed there. If this is true, then this is a massively successful hit.

    [MORE]

    is surely due to America’s Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes.

    In Ukraine it’s common knowledge that the Americans are providing real time intelligence assistance. Even before the attacks, this is partly why there were initial successes. The Ukrainians might have their own resources, remember that for them this is a do or die situation (pun unintended).

    Btw, there’s no confirmation re: Gerasimov even being there. However, Arestovych said that they destroyed a special forces unit that was supposedly guarding someone of high stature.

    Modern economy… They have that in common with Russia then.

    That’s a good observation.

    It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    Of course, not (even if these elites can march on for a while). This bothers me, as I already mentioned above. When you start touching on class issues (especially mixed in with foreigners), it can become very ugly.

    I wouldn’t want Ukraine getting mixed in with the Western European class struggles (for the lack of a better word).

  401. @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    There we go again, first thing after breakout of Russo-Ukraine hostilities, Karlin tweeted some nonsense about PRC launching first strike on Japan.
     
    It is not just some nonsense, RF-ians simply are desperately wishing that CCP'ied China started some significant aggresive action as soon as possible, cause it would relieve the pressure from their clumsy actions against UA, but zero coviding is shutting that possibility down.

    No mental problem after, just cure it with starting fantasy about winning fights against Chinese svidomists and it really being crypto preparations for street fightings in Taipei ;)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    You know who can’t wait for China to launch “Martial Reunification” 武统 wutong tomorrow…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Taiwan

    is US Gov. In this regard the US and RF imperialists share the same interest. At that point PRC loses strategic flexibility and AUKUS+EU+Japan+SK all line up against it.

    “Martial Reunification” operational plans of course exist and used for as leverage for “Peaceful Reunification”. The precedents being mentioned are based on Chinese Civil War (1945-49). Specifically the Pingjin Campaign (1949) where Beijing’s KMT commanding general Fu Zuoyi was decisively defeated in a few smaller battles, then surrendered his huge army to the CPC, facilitated by his daughter who was a CPC agent.

    This is called in PRC history books “Peaceful Liberation of Beijing”, in ROC-Taiwan it’s called “Fall of Beijing”. And portrayed in the movie I rec’d to songbird, The Founding of a Republic

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    If the chinks don’t back up Ivan now, they won’t have allies later on.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I think the only "evidence" of military reunification plans to be implemented this year is a "leaked FSB intel" from Christo Grozev which is openly downplayed by diplomatic spokespeople on both sides of the straits, and nothing more. If the politburo and strategic planners commit a colossal blunder by jumping the gun, then I'd be like what AK says if Russia was defeated.

  402. @Sean
    @LatW


    If this really happened, and the Ukrainian side managed to do that (officers killed, maps destroyed, etc)
     
    Such precise targeting (a Major-General head of the Russian army electronic warfare was killed yesterday along with his HQ staff) is surely due to America's Defense Intelligence Agency providing the Ukrainians with the GPS location for the strikes. Nine generals and 36 colonels. I do not think General Milley is going to having having any cozy chats with his Russian counterpart the way he was with the Chinese one about preventing nuclear war. And targeting generals means the ones around Putin having seen their mentors killed will be more or less willing to obey and order from Putin to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? I would not bet on the Russians being unable to solve the technical problems of removing a thermonuclear weapon from thits repository and taking it to the battlefields without the DIA knowing about it.

    Sorry, I didn’t phrase that right, they’re not “underpaid” but visibly unwilling or unable to participate in the modern economy (or only willing on their own terms).
     
    They have that in common with Russia then.

    And Ukraine gets hit with their anger, although Ukraine had nothing to do with it, these guys would protest many other Green coalition proposals (even if there was no war in Ukraine). It’s just striking to see such differences. There used to be a more solid middle.
     
    There is far more inequality. Wages are being held down by immigration, and the elites are filling up with immigrants too. It was an Indian that designed the sanctions against Russia that caught Putin's financial geniuses with their pants down (0.8 trillion down the toilet). More than 60 percent of those working in computer, mathematics and engineering fields in Silicon Valley are foreign born, Silicon Valley's Indians have much to do with the big tech firms not paying a reasonable amount of taxes on their profits? It is more and more the elite and their tame minions from abroad against the majority of the country who are redundant as workers and cannon fodder. Is that a recipe for success in a democracy?

    Replies: @LatW, @Wokechoke

    If these intelligence collisions hitting generals can be traced, I would not want to be a staff officer in the western military around about now. Of course wouldn’t want to be top brass in Russia either. Historically in war it was the commander who got killed. Lower ranks often changed sides according to pay offers.

  403. A123 says: • Website
    @AP
    @A123


    For example, the Ukrainian government committed a War Crime by building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians.
     
    Sorry, but this is a very dumb take. In the 1960's, the Soviets irrigated semi-arid grassland in northern Crimea to turn it into artificially productive farmland (they were into irrigation projects, killing the Aral Sea around the same time). Ukrainians reversed this Soviet project and returned Crimea to its natural state. Nobody died from this, drinking water was not eliminated. This is no "war crime." It just cost Crimea money.

    Replies: @A123

    Once civilians depend on it, separating “artificial” from “natural” is absurd. The canal started flowing in the 1960’s, though the full length did not finish until the 1970’s. That is over 50 years before the Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam to impose suffering on Crimean civilians.

    Yes. Farmers are civilians. Destroying their livelihoods on government orders is “targeting civilians”. That the Ukrainian collective punishment of innocent Crimean civilians turned out nonlethal is a relief, but it does not justify the underlying War Crime.
    _____

    Regardless of your opinion of right or wrong, do you grasp the inevitable consequence of Ukraine’s construction of the Punishment Dam?

    It is the obligation of the Russian government to protect Crimean civilians. There is now a 100% certainty that Russia will hold the full length of the North Crimean Canal to the Dnieper River. Having proved their willingness to engage in collective punishment, subsequent Ukrainian administrations will not be given the opportunity to rebuild the Punishment Dam.

    PEACE 😇

  404. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sudden death

    You know who can't wait for China to launch "Martial Reunification" 武统 wutong tomorrow...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Taiwan

    is US Gov. In this regard the US and RF imperialists share the same interest. At that point PRC loses strategic flexibility and AUKUS+EU+Japan+SK all line up against it.

    "Martial Reunification" operational plans of course exist and used for as leverage for "Peaceful Reunification". The precedents being mentioned are based on Chinese Civil War (1945-49). Specifically the Pingjin Campaign (1949) where Beijing's KMT commanding general Fu Zuoyi was decisively defeated in a few smaller battles, then surrendered his huge army to the CPC, facilitated by his daughter who was a CPC agent.

    This is called in PRC history books "Peaceful Liberation of Beijing", in ROC-Taiwan it's called "Fall of Beijing". And portrayed in the movie I rec'd to songbird, The Founding of a Republic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FRj3P97TvY

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

    If the chinks don’t back up Ivan now, they won’t have allies later on.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Wokechoke

    Chinks don't need or want military allies. Military alliances are what led to WWI.

    Chinks are better off on continue working on being the best looking, most athletic guy with the most cash, then he can "spin plates" with Keiko, Annalena, and Delphine.

    Instead of being committed exclusively to Natasha, who despite being very beautiful, can be a handful...

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  405. @Sean
    @Beckow

    Zelensky's inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly and the nationalists who attained so much influence under Poroshenko would not let him or to put it another way, he would not have been reelected because Poroshenko would say 'I told you he would sell out'.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …Zelensky’s inclination was to fulfill Minsk 2 and end the war, but his popularity waned quickly

    Ze got 70% promising peace and then went for war. Poroshko got less than 15%, he was in no position to be elected again.

    Zelensky abandoned his peace platform and what he is doing now is not helping. Minsk 2 was a better deal than where Ukraine is heading with this war. Ukrainians know it and there is no way for Ze to twist it into a victory. So there will be consequences and he will simply leave and live somewhere else with his millions.

  406. @Mikel
    @Barbarossa

    Thanks. Johnny's didn't have linseed and is not cheap either but I finally was able to find an online store with reasonable prices. Let's see if I can grow enough to justify the price I paid and keep some of the harvest for future seeding.

    Contrary to what AaronB seems to suggest sometimes, there is a big market for small-scale farming and pretend-homesteaders (like me) all around the US so the products we demand have hobby-like prices. This shows that lots of people are already trying to live in contact with nature.

    Btw, you can't imagine how many times I've used the argument 'why doesn't anyone ever get those prizes for paranormal phenomena'. I remember that in the 90s I was already using it. So it's going to be very interesting to see how this actually works from the inside, though admittedly dowsing is more of a controversial technique than a paranormal phenomenon.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I agree that there is a huge market for back-to-the-earth stuff. I find this to exemplified by Mother Earth News which used to be really quirky and interesting, and now has tractor ads every other page in between articles like “13 Chicken Grooming Techniques for Your Flock” or “How to Milk Your Goat Without Ruining Your Manicure”. Okay…that’s an exaggeration, though not a huge one.

    It’s certainly turned into a consumer thing in many ways with the idea that you can’t do anything without a \$35,000 Kubota tractor and a ton of other very specialized stuff. But everything gets turned into a consumer marketing gimmick nowadays. As was noted above in the thread, when Che Guevara gets turned into a consumer commodity, that says it all.

    The hobby prices of small scale ag stuff reminds of horse items. The same object for a cow will be half the price of a horse version… just of it’s perception as being high end. It is possible to avoid the high costs in large part, but it takes seeking out the alternatives. For example, I have a Mennonite farm supply place near me that carries just about everything usually at prices better than online anywhere. I just got a set of chains for my backhoe for \$200 less than anywhere online and they had them on the shelf. I was pretty darned happy!

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don’t really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world. I talk to quite a few people who have very idealized ideas of farm life or a more “natural” life. I suppose they don’t really want that life, but they like the idea of the fantasy version. Such can be an easy mark for advertisers who promise the homesteader experience though insulated from the uncertainty and inconvenience by expert advice and state of the art equipment. Well, that’s largely an illusion but I suppose getting the tractor sold is all the dealer is really concerned with!

    On the dowsing, I was interested in why you think that dowsing would be more controversial than other categories paranormal phenomenon? I would think it would be somewhat less than something like spirits or ghosts, but perhaps I’m misunderstanding what you meant.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Barbarossa


    perhaps I’m misunderstanding what you meant
     
    Yes, sorry. Bad choice of words. I meant to say that more than a paranormal phenomenon, dowsing looks like an ability for which still some scientific controversy can be found. In fact, after that previous test with a dowser this skeptic group wrote in their conclusions that they hadn't proven that dowsing is impossible, just that this person hadn't been able to show such an ability. But according to Wikipedia, the subject has been quite thoroughly researched and the conventional wisdom is that it lacks scientific merit.

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don’t really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world.
     
    That's probably what this well established market with hobby-like prices reveals. There's a huge number of people trying, in one way or another, to lead a more "natural" life so perhaps we are all not as materialistic in this society as AaronB thinks but, at the same time, most of us are not willing to abandon the pursuit of material wealth so can they afford to charge silly prices that often defeat the purpose. Along with the linseed, I bought 16 oz of chickpea seeds for $6. I could possibly buy as many chickpeas at a bulk store as what I'm going to harvest for that price but it's not a popular garden crop in this area so I'm out of luck. I cannot find these seeds at the big box or the local gardening stores so I am prey to the back-to-earth marketeers. Store-bought chickpeas don't germinate btw. For some reason they are all radiated, even the "organic" ones.

    Unfortunately, local farmers are usually not so helpful with this kind of matters. There are many crops that are possible in this area in a small scale, non commercial way, such as soy, asparagus or, if you're lucky with the frost dates, even peanuts and some hybrid types of rice. But they're very skeptic about anything that is non-traditional. Many of them also seem to have fallen prey to Tractor Supply and similar stores.

    I guess that there are two somewhat opposing attitudes one can take with the discontent that you mention. One is that life is too short and you shouldn't deprive yourself of the benefits of modern life while you also take delight in the joys of contact with nature. The other is that precisely because life is short and ultimately purposeless, one should find spiritual meaning in a life of permanent contact with nature, as we evolved to live before the advent of modernity. All things considered, I think I gravitate toward the former attitude these days.

  407. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sudden death

    You know who can't wait for China to launch "Martial Reunification" 武统 wutong tomorrow...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Taiwan

    is US Gov. In this regard the US and RF imperialists share the same interest. At that point PRC loses strategic flexibility and AUKUS+EU+Japan+SK all line up against it.

    "Martial Reunification" operational plans of course exist and used for as leverage for "Peaceful Reunification". The precedents being mentioned are based on Chinese Civil War (1945-49). Specifically the Pingjin Campaign (1949) where Beijing's KMT commanding general Fu Zuoyi was decisively defeated in a few smaller battles, then surrendered his huge army to the CPC, facilitated by his daughter who was a CPC agent.

    This is called in PRC history books "Peaceful Liberation of Beijing", in ROC-Taiwan it's called "Fall of Beijing". And portrayed in the movie I rec'd to songbird, The Founding of a Republic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FRj3P97TvY

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

    I think the only “evidence” of military reunification plans to be implemented this year is a “leaked FSB intel” from Christo Grozev which is openly downplayed by diplomatic spokespeople on both sides of the straits, and nothing more. If the politburo and strategic planners commit a colossal blunder by jumping the gun, then I’d be like what AK says if Russia was defeated.

  408. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death
    @A123


    building a Punishment Dam to cut off water to Crimean civilians. This was a construction project officially sanctioned by the government, not an individual act.
     
    Should be getting at least basic facts right before boasting in humanitarian righteousness - all those dams were built long before UA became independent for the purpose of irrigating agricultural arid lands of northern Crimea and after RF landgrab water pump valves were shut down in order to increase cost of occupation IIRC.

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious as not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious.

    Nice bit of histrionic fabrication. Ad hominem attacks mark you as a mouth frothing crazy degenerate.

    not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.

    If you go back through my posting you will find multiple occurrences where I strenuously objected to Putin cutting natural gas flows to and through Poland. For example: (1)

    Deliberately interrupting deliveries via the Yamal (Belarus-Poland) pipeline showed that Putin is inherently unreliable.

    Everyone in Europe interpreted that way. Putin intentionally deployed legalistic minimalism to destabilize the European natural gas “spot market”. (2)

    According to Slovakian operator Eustream, the average daily volume of gas transfer from Russia between Jan. 1 and 9 had dropped to 54 million cubic meters — half the amount for the same period in 2021. The Yamal pipeline, on the other hand, has not been transferring any gas through Poland at all since the end of December.

    The fact that Putin intentionally went after European markets in an attempt to coerce NS2 startup is proven fact. There is no way for him to take back the failed attempt at blackmail.

    Here is a helpful tip if you want to be taken seriously.

    You should *stop lying*.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/#comment-5200804

    (2) https://rmx.news/poland/us-gas-supply-to-eu-is-5x-higher-than-that-of-russias-gazprom-so-far-in-january/

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    Remember your cited comments quite well as surprisingly it was very lucid and accurate interpretation of events, however yet again it does not have anything to do with my raised point about having slimy duplicit position - spot market machinations did not affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen, because long term contract was being fulfilled by Gazprom at the time.

    So, great international humanitarian SJW keeps mouth frothing about "Ukrainian war criminals" while still playing dead opposum when confronted with the fresh equivalent act of RF-ian war criminals led by Putin, whom unilateraly terminated the contract and cut the gas supply for ordinary Polish and Bulgarian people daily living needs.

    Replies: @A123

  409. The Where….

    “During the Great Patriotic War, Kemerovo region became a major supplier of coal and metal. From Novokuznetsk steel produced over 50,000 tanks and 45,000 aircraft. In Kuzbass from the occupied areas were evacuated equipment 71 enterprises, most of which have remained in the Kuzbass.”

    …did whaaat?

    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Wokechoke


    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.
     
    According to Resident Evil, there are at least eight underground cities/complexes run by HSBC Bank The Umbrella Corporation. [MORE]

    Is one of these laboratories below what AK describes as a "Shanghai Cuckpod"? Inquiring minds want to know.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i1.wp.com/trecobox.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/racoon.jpeg

     
    https://www.edownloadmovies.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Resident-Evil-Welcome-to-Raccoon-City.jpg

     
    https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/517162056017772547/671827339008802844/IMG_20200128_210208.jpg

  410. A123 says: • Website
    @songbird
    @A123

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov's and, I think, Analog.

    The novelization of the movie (which I read) had a co-author, David Gerrold, who wrote several Star Trek episodes/premises, including creating Tribbles. Though, he also appears not to be George RR Martin.

    Replies: @sudden death, @A123

    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.

    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.

    Most likely, I misremembered. I am pulling details from “deep storage”, over a decade ago. The anthology had George RR Martin’s name on the outside. And, it and contained both Nightflyers and Sandkings which are among his most memorable short works. It must have been an anthology of multiple authors even though I do not have it mentally filed that way.

    (shrug)

    Mea culpa.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Don't sweat it. Memory is but a Dalí clock. Not to mention, he has a kind of odd name that plausibly sounds like it is made-up.

  411. A123 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke
    The Where….


    “During the Great Patriotic War, Kemerovo region became a major supplier of coal and metal. From Novokuznetsk steel produced over 50,000 tanks and 45,000 aircraft. In Kuzbass from the occupied areas were evacuated equipment 71 enterprises, most of which have remained in the Kuzbass.”


    …did whaaat?

    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.

    Replies: @A123

    How many racoon cities have they got today? We really don’t know for certain.

    According to Resident Evil, there are at least eight underground cities/complexes run by HSBC Bank The Umbrella Corporation. [MORE]

    Is one of these laboratories below what AK describes as a “Shanghai Cuckpod”? Inquiring minds want to know.

    PEACE 😇

     

    [MORE]

     
     

  412. @Wokechoke
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    If the chinks don’t back up Ivan now, they won’t have allies later on.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Chinks don’t need or want military allies. Military alliances are what led to WWI.

    Chinks are better off on continue working on being the best looking, most athletic guy with the most cash, then he can “spin plates” with Keiko, Annalena, and Delphine.

    Instead of being committed exclusively to Natasha, who despite being very beautiful, can be a handful…

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • LOL: LatW, keypusher
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    BTW, they've finally moved the goalpost enough to say Shanghai has "dynamic COVID Zero". Very physically damaging to the Shanghaiese psyche, but at least they deliver on what they set out to do, no matter the costs.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  413. @AP
    @German_reader

    As you are aware, all of this is completely Russia's choice and Russia only needs to return to its own borders for it all to go away. There is nothing "provocative" about giving Ukraine weapons with which Ukraine can defend itself against a country that has violated all norms to invade it.

    I hope all of Russia's useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird

    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.

    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism, and that we should be Catholic universalists or something.

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism, with unlimited potential for violence. That any moral person must advocate sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. That you must risk nuclear escalation. Give hundreds of billions of dollars that will never be paid back. Deplete your own defense stocks, while taking on decades worth of animus of a nuclear power, to say nothing of imploding your economy and freezing through the next winter (for the energy-dependent.)

    Or, as you say, you are a moron and a supporter of Putin and bad things should happen to your family, without them being prepared for them.

    So, have you changed your views on nationalism? Or is universal Ukrainian nationalism the only one allowed?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Ukrainians are assaulted on two fronts, militarily and by the Liberal ideology of their ostensible allies. AP shouldn't make Bandera roll in his grave.

    , @AP
    @songbird


    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism
     
    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism
     
    You are being rather frantic.

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors, just as individuals ought to have the means to defend their own homes from criminals.

    People who state that Ukraine should be denied weapons because Ukraine having weapons means more violence when Ukraine is invaded should apply this logic to themselves and their loved ones and practice strict gun control or avoidance of any weapons, because should they be assaulted there would be too much violence if more then just the aggressor were armed.

    Replies: @songbird

  414. @A123
    @songbird



    As an aside, the novella appears in a collection exclusively of George RR Martin works, yet it lists the author as Barry Longyear who is not George RR Martin. I am slightly puzzled by the story’s lineage.
     
    Curious, the only connection I can find between them is that they were both published in Asimov’s and, I think, Analog.
     
    Most likely, I misremembered. I am pulling details from "deep storage", over a decade ago. The anthology had George RR Martin's name on the outside. And, it and contained both Nightflyers and Sandkings which are among his most memorable short works. It must have been an anthology of multiple authors even though I do not have it mentally filed that way.

    (shrug)

    Mea culpa.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Don’t sweat it. Memory is but a Dalí clock. Not to mention, he has a kind of odd name that plausibly sounds like it is made-up.

  415. @songbird
    @AP


    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.
     
    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism, and that we should be Catholic universalists or something.

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism, with unlimited potential for violence. That any moral person must advocate sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. That you must risk nuclear escalation. Give hundreds of billions of dollars that will never be paid back. Deplete your own defense stocks, while taking on decades worth of animus of a nuclear power, to say nothing of imploding your economy and freezing through the next winter (for the energy-dependent.)

    Or, as you say, you are a moron and a supporter of Putin and bad things should happen to your family, without them being prepared for them.

    So, have you changed your views on nationalism? Or is universal Ukrainian nationalism the only one allowed?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP

    Ukrainians are assaulted on two fronts, militarily and by the Liberal ideology of their ostensible allies. AP shouldn’t make Bandera roll in his grave.

    • Agree: songbird
  416. @German_reader
    @utu


    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the “professional” Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason.
     
    Bit harsh, but AP's arguments do indeed often feel rather forced, and have a chameleon-like quality depending on the interlocutor (it was very weird when he tried to use quasi-pan-Slavist arguments on Karlin). I guess one has to show some tolerance for it, given Ukraine's dire straits.

    your German pacifist anti Americanism
     
    I'm not a pacifist and never have been. I admit to being anti-American, though even regarding that I feel somewhat ambivalent (Russia and China aren't appealing alternatives either). If the US were more of a "normal" country (without endless mass immigration, ever more insane "progressive" ideology and rampant interventionism abroad), I'd be content to accept American leadership of a Western family of nations. But as it is, I can't view American hegemony as an unalloyed good.


    Max Boot is soft head wimp.
     
    Lol. I guess that's a novel take, at least on UR.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    chameleon-like quality

    This is a culture of American democratic citizens, who want to persuade their neighbor to support some activism. Political discussion in America, often sounds like lawyers talking to a judge, although with the disappointing potential reward of attaining a single more vote for your side, or perhaps a donation.

    So, AP is talking to the “low IQ” right-wing, anti-Muslim neighbor (although he lives in elite New England, so there are probably not so many neighbors like this – maybe his cleaning staff), he could focus on the topic of pseudo-Islamic Chechens raping post-Christian (“Ukrainians with Christian roots”) Ukrainians.

    If AP talking to the feminist Ivy League professor neighbor, he could discuss Ukrainian culture’s heritage of gender equality, with female representations of the monument of independence. If it was a more politically sophisticated person, he could focus about topics of emerging democracy in the postsoviet space.

    He also has skill finding the most effective insult for the interlocutor, who doesn’t agree with his viewpoint. So, when I disagree with him he said, that I was sounding like “Andrei Martyanov” (strange kremlinbot grandfather, who is obsessed about large missiles). It’s good try, as he knows I’m will respond with a reflexive distaste for my post to be compared with this kind of vulgar people.

    some tolerance for it, given Ukraine’s dire

    Although AP is less “Ukrainian activist” than people here claim. E.g. He even supports Trump who didn’t give weapons to Ukraine, as I posted last week. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5312715 He also has panglossian views about the war between Ukraine and Russia, before this year and supported loss of one of their best cities – Donetsk.

    He sometimes chooses crazy forum views like “conquistador revisionism” or romanticization of absolutist monarchy, then became attached to those. And he argues more strongly for those, than for Ukraine.

    I would say, usually, he just argues, because he wants people to agree with his views and this is very useful for stimulating the threads.

  417. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Wokechoke

    Chinks don't need or want military allies. Military alliances are what led to WWI.

    Chinks are better off on continue working on being the best looking, most athletic guy with the most cash, then he can "spin plates" with Keiko, Annalena, and Delphine.

    Instead of being committed exclusively to Natasha, who despite being very beautiful, can be a handful...

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    BTW, they’ve finally moved the goalpost enough to say Shanghai has “dynamic COVID Zero”. Very physically damaging to the Shanghaiese psyche, but at least they deliver on what they set out to do, no matter the costs.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Yellowface Anon

    Happy Ending


    On a splintered tree stump in the biggest battlefield in the history of the world, Adam sat down and read a letter from Nina. It had arrived early the day before, but in the intensive fighting which followed he had not had a spare minute in which to open it.

    Doubting Hall,
    Aylesbury.
    'Dearest Adam,--I wonder how you are. It is difficult to know what is happening quite because the papers say such odd things. Van has got a divine job making up all the war news, and he invented a lovely story about you the other day, how you'd saved hundreds of people's lives, and there's what they call a popular agitation saying why haven't you got the V.C., so probably you will have by now, isn't it amusing?

    'Ginger and I are very well. Ginger has a job in an office in Whitehall and wears a very grand sort of uniform, and, my dear, I'm going to have a baby, isn't it too awful? But Ginger has quite made up his mind it's his, and is as pleased as anything, so that's all right. He's quite forgiven you about last Christmas, and says anyway you're doing your bit now, and in war time one lets bygones be bygones.

    'Doubting is a hospital, did you know? Papa shows his film to the wounded and they adore it. I saw Mr Benfleet, and he said how awful it was when one had given all one's life in the cause of culture to see everything one's stood for swept away, but he's doing very well with his "Sword Unsheathed" series of war poets.

    'There's a new Government order that we have to sleep in gas masks because of the bombs, but no one does. They've put Archie in prison as an undesirable alien, Ginger saw to that, he's terrific about spies. I'm sick such a lot because of this baby, but everyone says it's patriotic to have babies in war time. Why?

    'Lots of love, my angel, take care of your dear self.

    N.'

    He put it back in its envelope and buttoned it into his breast-pocket. Then he took out a pipe, filled it and began to smoke. The scene all round him was one of unrelieved desolation; a great expanse of mud in which every visible object was burnt or broken. Sounds of firing thundered from beyond the horizon, and somewhere above the grey clouds there were aeroplanes. He had had no sleep for thirty-six hours. It was growing dark.

    Presently he became aware of a figure approaching, painfully picking his way among the strands of barbed wire which strayed across the ground like drifting cobweb; a soldier clearly. As he came nearer Adam saw that he was levelling towards him a liquid fire-projector. Adam tightened his fingers about his Huxdane-Halley bomb (for the dissemination of leprosy germs), and in this posture of mutual suspicion they met. Through the dusk Adam recognized the uniform of an English staff officer. He put the bomb back in his pocket and saluted.

    The newcomer lowered his liquid-fire projector and raised his gas mask. 'You're English, are you?' he said. 'Can't see a thing. Broken my damned monocle.'

    'Why,' said Adam. 'You're the drunk Major.'

  418. @utu
    @AP

    What is the message Germany is broadcasting since before the war? First it was do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Russia will win and now it is do not supply Ukraine with weapons because Ukraine may win. This is still the same message. They haven't learned anything.

    German_twat is on the level of those 'German intellectuals' like Alice Schwarzer and Alexander Kluge, Martin Walser, Reinhard Merkel, Reinhard Mey, Dieter Nuhr, Gerhard Polt, Edgar Selge, Antje Vollmer, Peter Weibel, Ranga Yogeshwar, Juli Zeh, Richard Precht who recently were recruited (possibly by circles around Scholz and/or Russian embassy) to write open letter to Scholz warning against provoking Putin in the slightest way and so on:



    “We therefore hope that you [Scholz] will remember your original position and that you will not, directly or indirectly, supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, we urge you to do everything you can to ensure that a ceasefire is reached as soon as possible to a compromise that both sides can accept,”

    The signatories emphasize that Putin broke international law by attacking Ukraine. But that doesn’t justify accepting the “risk of this war escalating into a nuclear conflict.” The delivery of large quantities of heavy weapons could make Germany itself a party to the war. “A Russian counter-attack could then trigger the case for assistance under the NATO treaty and thus the immediate danger of a world war.”

    We warn against a two-fold error: Firstly, that the responsibility for the danger of an escalation to a nuclear conflict lies solely with the original aggressor and not also with those who see him with his eyes provide a motive for possibly criminal action. And on the other hand, that the decision on the moral responsibility of the further “costs” in human lives among the Ukrainian civilian population falls exclusively within the competence of their government. Morally binding norms are of a universal nature.”
     
    If they were not a part of Putin dupes and Putin agentur in Germany they could be well standing members in the new neo-pagan anti-Western cult that apparently took hold in Germany that 'nobody owes anybody anything' and that 'nobody owes Ukraine anything' in particular.

    Replies: @German_reader, @songbird, @AP, @Dmitry

    Topic of heavy military equipment support for Ukraine is complicated for Germany, not only for the political and legal issues, but also because of the equipment itself. The equipment would have logistical, training, technological obsolescence, obstacles, for being useful for Ukrainians.

    There are very detailed videos made by “Military History Visualized” channel on YouTube about the reality of these German heavy weapons and if they would be relevant for Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry

    And "Military Aviation History" channel, made a video about "The Problem with Heavy Weapon Exports to Ukraine" - whether Germany'll give "Gepard" anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3c385d5NU0

    , @utu
    @Dmitry

    You are trolling, Dmitri. Watch the videos yourself first and give us specific examples of "obstacles for [weapons] being useful for Ukrainians".

    If the alleged obstacle is lack of training of Ukrainian crews and soldiers the only course of action is to organize training as soon as possible and not using it as an argument against giving that weapons to Ukrainians. Excuses heard from Germany and its administration on different levels of decision chain are obstructionist in nature.

    The lack of political will on the part of Germany political class so far is the biggest obstacle of providing weapons to Ukraine by Germany but also by former Warsaw Pact countries which are willing to provide Soviet made weapons. Lithuania was blocked by Germany to provide weapons that formerly belonged to DDR. Also Czech Republic was delayed by Germany in providing former East German weapons which Czech Republic acquired from Sweden. However there are some signs of change in case of Slovenia. But Slovakia got Patriots batteries from the US to provide S-300 to Ukraine, which btw Russians claimed that they have already destroyed.

    Hopefully this will change as more and more Germans are in favor of supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. I am sure that there is American and British pressure and German media are critical of obstructionism by Scholz government.

    Germany political class does not want Ukraine to succeed at all or to succeed too much. So far the heavy lifting for Ukraine comes from the US, the UK and Poland (200 tanks from Poland). Germany and France as relatively large military powers and rich countries did disproportionately much less.

    IMO the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin was cooking they and the UK began training and supplying Ukraine in the fall of 2021. They did not know how Ukraine would perform but if Ukrainian performance would be better than what was expected by many analysts and Russian disinformation agents large supplies of weapons would flow to Ukraine. Germany otoh was not ready for such possibility and still is not ready to accept that Putin miscalculated and is going to be defeated.

    The success of Ukraine on the battlefield showed to the world and China in particular that Russian military is weak and inept and the response of the West which somehow managed to get unified in military support and sanctions made the US change its pivot from that to China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China a lesson in Ukraine. Killing the chicken in Ukraine shows the monkey in Beijing who is the boss. Putin did not realize that he solved for America her Chinese problem. Taiwan will be sovereign and independently sooner that it was expected. We will just have to suffer from few tantrums of Xi and Taiwan will be free.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

  419. @Yellowface Anon
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    BTW, they've finally moved the goalpost enough to say Shanghai has "dynamic COVID Zero". Very physically damaging to the Shanghaiese psyche, but at least they deliver on what they set out to do, no matter the costs.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Happy Ending

    On a splintered tree stump in the biggest battlefield in the history of the world, Adam sat down and read a letter from Nina. It had arrived early the day before, but in the intensive fighting which followed he had not had a spare minute in which to open it.

    Doubting Hall,
    Aylesbury.
    ‘Dearest Adam,–I wonder how you are. It is difficult to know what is happening quite because the papers say such odd things. Van has got a divine job making up all the war news, and he invented a lovely story about you the other day, how you’d saved hundreds of people’s lives, and there’s what they call a popular agitation saying why haven’t you got the V.C., so probably you will have by now, isn’t it amusing?

    ‘Ginger and I are very well. Ginger has a job in an office in Whitehall and wears a very grand sort of uniform, and, my dear, I’m going to have a baby, isn’t it too awful? But Ginger has quite made up his mind it’s his, and is as pleased as anything, so that’s all right. He’s quite forgiven you about last Christmas, and says anyway you’re doing your bit now, and in war time one lets bygones be bygones.

    ‘Doubting is a hospital, did you know? Papa shows his film to the wounded and they adore it. I saw Mr Benfleet, and he said how awful it was when one had given all one’s life in the cause of culture to see everything one’s stood for swept away, but he’s doing very well with his “Sword Unsheathed” series of war poets.

    ‘There’s a new Government order that we have to sleep in gas masks because of the bombs, but no one does. They’ve put Archie in prison as an undesirable alien, Ginger saw to that, he’s terrific about spies. I’m sick such a lot because of this baby, but everyone says it’s patriotic to have babies in war time. Why?

    ‘Lots of love, my angel, take care of your dear self.

    N.’

    He put it back in its envelope and buttoned it into his breast-pocket. Then he took out a pipe, filled it and began to smoke. The scene all round him was one of unrelieved desolation; a great expanse of mud in which every visible object was burnt or broken. Sounds of firing thundered from beyond the horizon, and somewhere above the grey clouds there were aeroplanes. He had had no sleep for thirty-six hours. It was growing dark.

    Presently he became aware of a figure approaching, painfully picking his way among the strands of barbed wire which strayed across the ground like drifting cobweb; a soldier clearly. As he came nearer Adam saw that he was levelling towards him a liquid fire-projector. Adam tightened his fingers about his Huxdane-Halley bomb (for the dissemination of leprosy germs), and in this posture of mutual suspicion they met. Through the dusk Adam recognized the uniform of an English staff officer. He put the bomb back in his pocket and saluted.

    The newcomer lowered his liquid-fire projector and raised his gas mask. ‘You’re English, are you?’ he said. ‘Can’t see a thing. Broken my damned monocle.’

    ‘Why,’ said Adam. ‘You’re the drunk Major.’

  420. AP says:
    @songbird
    @AP


    I hope all of Russia’s useful idiots here demand strict gun control for themselves and loved ones, in order to avoid the bloodshed that may occur when potential victims are armed.
     
    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism, and that we should be Catholic universalists or something.

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism, with unlimited potential for violence. That any moral person must advocate sending more and more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. That you must risk nuclear escalation. Give hundreds of billions of dollars that will never be paid back. Deplete your own defense stocks, while taking on decades worth of animus of a nuclear power, to say nothing of imploding your economy and freezing through the next winter (for the energy-dependent.)

    Or, as you say, you are a moron and a supporter of Putin and bad things should happen to your family, without them being prepared for them.

    So, have you changed your views on nationalism? Or is universal Ukrainian nationalism the only one allowed?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP

    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism

    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism

    You are being rather frantic.

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors, just as individuals ought to have the means to defend their own homes from criminals.

    People who state that Ukraine should be denied weapons because Ukraine having weapons means more violence when Ukraine is invaded should apply this logic to themselves and their loved ones and practice strict gun control or avoidance of any weapons, because should they be assaulted there would be too much violence if more then just the aggressor were armed.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP


    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?
     
    No vague appeal to unnamed authority needed. Logically, if it were the conservative narrative, then it wouldn't be the prevailing narrative today, and it is frankly ridiculous to assert otherwise, in an age when men are called "women."

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors
     
    International arms dealing doesn't really lend itself to a homes and family message.
  421. @Dmitry
    @utu

    Topic of heavy military equipment support for Ukraine is complicated for Germany, not only for the political and legal issues, but also because of the equipment itself. The equipment would have logistical, training, technological obsolescence, obstacles, for being useful for Ukrainians.

    There are very detailed videos made by "Military History Visualized" channel on YouTube about the reality of these German heavy weapons and if they would be relevant for Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYZfvi0Ab78

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_DS6UvZXPo

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    And “Military Aviation History” channel, made a video about “The Problem with Heavy Weapon Exports to Ukraine” – whether Germany’ll give “Gepard” anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.

  422. @songbird
    @sudden death

    The antiwar analogy is easy to see, (common in a lot of scifi). But I thought the Drac philosophy about lineage was pretty interesting.

    In order to be counted adults, they need to memorize a long list of their ancestors and their deeds (around 200, that's over >10,000 years) The names repeat after a series of around five. The idea being that names aren't as important as their deeds.

    Any scifi you'd recommend, sudden death?

    Replies: @Adept, @sudden death

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization with sophisticated traditions and rituals.

    Sadly somehow managed to lose the pleasure of reading any fiction over the years, so my recommendations may be out of date, but my own SF favorites were Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers and Futurological Congress by Stanislaw Lem.

    The first being about human psyche shattering consequences after careless and indifferent, almost accidental, short term alien visitors left the Earth and the latter perhaps being not everyone’s cup of tea, where specific type of dried wit is mixed with lots of frantic crazy psychedelic adventures set in some loose 3rd world chaotic backround, full of imaginary semantics and wordplays, but remember myself cackling like crazy while reading. Was reading both those books in Lithuanian translation, so don’t know whether English translations were successfully done.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @sudden death


    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization
     
    It probably was, but when I see a conservative theme, it just resonates with me, because of the rarity of those sort of messages.

    Kind of like the movie Once Were Warriors. I disliked that movie because it is about domestic violence and has other unpleasant plot points. But I feel like it was meant to be a movie to appeal to progressives and does, but, while I dislike many elements of the story, I really liked what I saw as a pro-rootedness message, which some progressive reviewers didn't even pick up on, when they gave it glowing reviews.

    so my recommendations may be out of date
     
    I think it is an inevitable corollary to the idea that society is decadent, that the best stuff is not the most recent.

    Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers
     
    I have read this one, but not the other. Though, I have read The Cyberiad. Parts of it were pretty funny, even in English translation, but I didn't appreciate what I interpreted as an atheistic message in one the stories.

    My tastes are probably less literary, so you probably wouldn't share them, but, off the top of my head, the funniest sci-fi story I've read is one I've plugged before here: The High Crusade by Poul Anderson. It begins with an alien invasion. Instead of the humans being over-awed, the ship lands where a medieval crusade is gathering, and, though they are underdogs, the martial spirit and faith of the medieval Euros wins the day. It's pretty lighthearted and you've got to suspend your disbelief, time and again, but I saw it as promoting vitality, courage, and vigorous action.
  423. utu says:
    @Dmitry
    @utu

    Topic of heavy military equipment support for Ukraine is complicated for Germany, not only for the political and legal issues, but also because of the equipment itself. The equipment would have logistical, training, technological obsolescence, obstacles, for being useful for Ukrainians.

    There are very detailed videos made by "Military History Visualized" channel on YouTube about the reality of these German heavy weapons and if they would be relevant for Ukraine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYZfvi0Ab78

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_DS6UvZXPo

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    You are trolling, Dmitri. Watch the videos yourself first and give us specific examples of “obstacles for [weapons] being useful for Ukrainians”.

    If the alleged obstacle is lack of training of Ukrainian crews and soldiers the only course of action is to organize training as soon as possible and not using it as an argument against giving that weapons to Ukrainians. Excuses heard from Germany and its administration on different levels of decision chain are obstructionist in nature.

    The lack of political will on the part of Germany political class so far is the biggest obstacle of providing weapons to Ukraine by Germany but also by former Warsaw Pact countries which are willing to provide Soviet made weapons. Lithuania was blocked by Germany to provide weapons that formerly belonged to DDR. Also Czech Republic was delayed by Germany in providing former East German weapons which Czech Republic acquired from Sweden. However there are some signs of change in case of Slovenia. But Slovakia got Patriots batteries from the US to provide S-300 to Ukraine, which btw Russians claimed that they have already destroyed.

    Hopefully this will change as more and more Germans are in favor of supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. I am sure that there is American and British pressure and German media are critical of obstructionism by Scholz government.

    Germany political class does not want Ukraine to succeed at all or to succeed too much. So far the heavy lifting for Ukraine comes from the US, the UK and Poland (200 tanks from Poland). Germany and France as relatively large military powers and rich countries did disproportionately much less.

    IMO the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin was cooking they and the UK began training and supplying Ukraine in the fall of 2021. They did not know how Ukraine would perform but if Ukrainian performance would be better than what was expected by many analysts and Russian disinformation agents large supplies of weapons would flow to Ukraine. Germany otoh was not ready for such possibility and still is not ready to accept that Putin miscalculated and is going to be defeated.

    The success of Ukraine on the battlefield showed to the world and China in particular that Russian military is weak and inept and the response of the West which somehow managed to get unified in military support and sanctions made the US change its pivot from that to China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China a lesson in Ukraine. Killing the chicken in Ukraine shows the monkey in Beijing who is the boss. Putin did not realize that he solved for America her Chinese problem. Taiwan will be sovereign and independently sooner that it was expected. We will just have to suffer from few tantrums of Xi and Taiwan will be free.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @utu


    videos yourself first and give us specific examples of “obstacles
     
    Those are high quality YouTube channels which explained the situation better. There is no troll to use those channels.

    Problem with Germany giving Marder is explained.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=616.

    Problem with Germany giving "Gepard" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=789.

    Panzerhaubitze 2000 will be not suitable for maintaining or moving,
    https://youtu.be/F_DS6UvZXPo?t=674.

    Problems maintaining Leopard 1 tank (which has very weak armor, etc).
    https://youtu.be/SYZfvi0Ab78?t=924.

    Adjusting to these heavy weapons systems is usually something that requires months or years.


    (200 tanks from Poland
     
    They are 200 T-72 M from storage. Even in 1979, they have downgraded armor compared to the non-export model used by the Soviet army.

    If you were in Ukrainian military, you might be considering whether soldiers would be more effective and safe outside than inside such tanks.

    from the US, the UK and Poland
     
    US, UK and Turkey are giving battle changing equipment from the Ukrainian point of view, but probably not Poland (at least those T-72 M).

    It is mainly not heavy equipment. Bayraktar TB2 is successful because it is so miniturized so difficult for radar and cheap, disposable product.

    America is going to train 20 Ukrainian soldiers this week with the Phoenix Ghost drone.
    https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1521161337262551041. These are the kind of equipment which are scary and there is no technological answer in the Russian military.


    the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin

     

    Obama, Trump and Biden, did not want America to increase its spending in Europe, and consider (correctly) Russia is not a rival for the USA, except in terms of its legacy inheritance of nuclear weapons.

    Ukraine's army is therefore extremely weak, lacking almost any modern equipment, with 0 navy and almost 0 airforce.

    However, because Ukraine's military is so weak, this created an extreme perceived unbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine. We see now retrospectively, that this lack of balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, has increased probability of invasion of Ukraine, almost like a trap for Putin.

    Too much lack of balance, but can be more dangerous, than the balance of power.

    I wonder what historical counterfactual would be if there were American presidents, John McCain (who still believed Russia was a rival of the USA, as a Cold Warrior), or Marco Rubio (who is just very aggressive geopolitically). They would have established in Ukraine, Patriot missiles, Abrams tanks and F-15 and F-16 planes. This would create more balance of power, as a result counter-intuitively perhaps there would be not this war now.


    China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China

     

    I think it's all too much non-matched comparison, to be useful.

    Firstly, China cannot compare their economic situation to Russia. Although there are still memories of the great USSR and inheritance of nuclear weapons and strategic delivery systems, today Russia's total economy size is similar to Spain, but shared with over three times more people, based in raw materials, and with less industrial base and technology level than Spain or Italy.

    China, on the other hand, is a very fast rising power (although its speed of development will be slow in the middle income trap), with real attempts for modernization, industry and technology. Rival Taiwan, but also potentially Japan, India, USA. China's rise is not based in raw material prices, but in industrialization. China's economic structure is more comparable to Turkey, while Russia more like Saudi Arabia. That's to say, China might become a significant rival for America, and this is what Obama, Trump and Biden have been worried about.

    Secondly, Ukraine should have been easy intrinsically to invade, while Taiwan would be somewhere on the opposite scale, probably more like suicide operations. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why-china-cannot-invade-taiwan/ Therefore, China would not likely be irrational enough to fall to such a trap, unless Xi Jinping would develop alzheimer's disease. But China has some extent of collective leadership and their leader perhaps can't make such irrational or irresponsible decisions.

    , @German_reader
    @utu


    Germany and France as relatively large military powers
     
    Germany isn't a "large military power", its military is a run-down joke, with only a fraction of its nominal strength being operational at any time and tanks and other vehicles being cannibalized for spare parts. Definitely not in the same league as France.
    And besides political factors, this is also another reason why the demands of the Ukrainian ambassador (who basically wants Germany to just hand over much of its useable tanks and artillery) are surreal. If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn't have much materiel left.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

  424. @A123
    @sudden death


    btw, your slimy duplicity is quite obvious.
     
    Nice bit of histrionic fabrication. Ad hominem attacks mark you as a mouth frothing crazy degenerate.

    not a single slight peep was heard from such great international humanitarian SJW about RF shutting down gas pump valves for everyday living needs of Bulgarian and Polish civilians.
     
    If you go back through my posting you will find multiple occurrences where I strenuously objected to Putin cutting natural gas flows to and through Poland. For example: (1)

    Deliberately interrupting deliveries via the Yamal (Belarus-Poland) pipeline showed that Putin is inherently unreliable.
    ...
    Everyone in Europe interpreted that way. Putin intentionally deployed legalistic minimalism to destabilize the European natural gas “spot market”. (2)

    According to Slovakian operator Eustream, the average daily volume of gas transfer from Russia between Jan. 1 and 9 had dropped to 54 million cubic meters — half the amount for the same period in 2021. The Yamal pipeline, on the other hand, has not been transferring any gas through Poland at all since the end of December.
     
    The fact that Putin intentionally went after European markets in an attempt to coerce NS2 startup is proven fact. There is no way for him to take back the failed attempt at blackmail.
     
    Here is a helpful tip if you want to be taken seriously.

    You should *stop lying*.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-177-continuing-russia-ukraine-war/#comment-5200804

    (2) https://rmx.news/poland/us-gas-supply-to-eu-is-5x-higher-than-that-of-russias-gazprom-so-far-in-january/

    Replies: @sudden death

    Remember your cited comments quite well as surprisingly it was very lucid and accurate interpretation of events, however yet again it does not have anything to do with my raised point about having slimy duplicit position – spot market machinations did not affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen, because long term contract was being fulfilled by Gazprom at the time.

    So, great international humanitarian SJW keeps mouth frothing about “Ukrainian war criminals” while still playing dead opposum when confronted with the fresh equivalent act of RF-ian war criminals led by Putin, whom unilateraly terminated the contract and cut the gas supply for ordinary Polish and Bulgarian people daily living needs.

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    @sudden death

    Your histrionic ad hominem attack rests on "facts not in evidence".


    affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen

     

    If you absurdly make this accusation yet close the door on market forces as a whole you must. Prove that the harmed "Kitchen Pole"

        • Was *not* harmed by market forces
        • Was *directly* harmed by Gazprom delivery failure after purchase

    Given that few (more likely no) private kitchens pay for and receive gas directly from Gazprom you have quite the difficult challenge.
    ____

    Even if you could succeed. That does not serve as justification or cover for the Ukranian government's much more blatant War Crime.

    The Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam in 2014 to stop 100% of flow in the Crimean Water Canal. This was done to target civilian farmers. As a matter of objective fact there is a direct connection between the Punishment Dam and farm failures.

    I believe there was a feeble attempt to fabricate some sort of justification that ignored 50+ years of historical water flows that did not occur under a water supply contract. The absurdist effort at unilateral creation of a mythical contract was ludicrous. Everybody laughed at the fictional non-contract that was never legitimate.
    _____

    Also note: Poland does not seem terribly agitated by Russia"s actions (1)


    Poland will be independent of Russian gas within half a year thanks to its long-term efforts to secure alternative supplies, the country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has announced on a visit to Austria. He called for other countries to do the same in order to “cut oxygen” from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    The Law and Justice (PiS) government has for years been seeking to end Poland’s reliance on Russian gas. In 2019, it announced that it would halt the permanent import of Russian gas once the current contract with Gazprom expires at the end of this year.
     

    If Poland does not want Russia gas, why are you so mouth frothingly histrionic about Poland refusing it? Theoretically, Russia would likely win a court case against Poland for breaking the contract.

    You will also recall that I have mentioned the Baltic1 pipeline multiple times (2).

    If anything I am providing "breaking news" about Eastern European energy independence. I keep sharing about the near certainty of much larger Baltic2 project that is still in the concept phase. Potential investors are reputedly chasing the project in excess of the funding requirement. That never happen in the industry.
    ___

    News exclusive to Bulgaria rarely reaches English language media. So, I have no details there. Have you heard that:
       • The Bulgarian import authority paid and then Gazprom refused to deliver?
       • Or, were Bulgarian civilians targeted for collective punishment by the Bulgarian government via some sort of refusal to pay in Rubles scenario?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/10/poland-will-be-independent-from-russian-gas-in-six-months-says-pm/

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/baltic-pipe-project/

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  425. AP says:
    @utu
    @German_reader


    "Anglo world can redeem itself for the criminal invasion of Iraq." .... "That’s a pretty weird argument."

     

    Keep in mind that you are dealing here with the "professional" Ukrainian for whom formulating a pro-Ukrainian arguments and spouting them comes easy in any circumstance of facts and logic regardless of sense and reason. He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945 were helping old women cross the street and singing lullabies to children. Professional propagandist can't afford shame. He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases. He looks for a soft spot in his interlocutor prejudices which is a sign of patronizing and instrumental treatment of his interlocutor. Here he uses the disparaging term "anglos" as if he was trying to ingratiate with quasi nationalist Chicanos from LA counting on your German anti-Americanism while forgetting that your father is English and then he connects Iraq war counting on your German pacifist anti Americanism to preempt 'whataboutist' counter argument.

    Max Boot is soft head wimp.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel, @AP

    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945

    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.

    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”

    Is it disparaging? Didn’t know that. So in your opinion this article’s headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    “Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend”

    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases

    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute – in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    • Replies: @AP
    @AP

    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo

    Anglo is a prefix indicating a relation to, or descent from, the Angles, England, English culture, the English people or the English language, such as in the term Anglosphere. It is often used alone, somewhat loosely, to refer to people of British descent in Anglo-America, the Anglophone Caribbean, South Africa, Namibia, Australia, and New Zealand. It is used in Canada to differentiate between the French speakers (Francophone) of mainly Quebec and some parts of New Brunswick, and the English speakers (Anglophone) in the rest of Canada. It is also used in the United States to distinguish the growing Spanish-speaking Latino population from the English-speaking majority.

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    , @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    , @Mikhail
    @AP


    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.
     
    Bigoted horseshit on your part - the kind accepted in Sorosian circles. BTW, there're numeropus Jews who'd think the opposite.
  426. AP says:
    @AP
    @utu


    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945
     
    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.


    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”
     
    Is it disparaging? Didn't know that. So in your opinion this article's headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    "Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend"


    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases
     
    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute - in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    Replies: @AP, @utu, @Mikhail

    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo

    Anglo is a prefix indicating a relation to, or descent from, the Angles, England, English culture, the English people or the English language, such as in the term Anglosphere. It is often used alone, somewhat loosely, to refer to people of British descent in Anglo-America, the Anglophone Caribbean, South Africa, Namibia, Australia, and New Zealand. It is used in Canada to differentiate between the French speakers (Francophone) of mainly Quebec and some parts of New Brunswick, and the English speakers (Anglophone) in the rest of Canada. It is also used in the United States to distinguish the growing Spanish-speaking Latino population from the English-speaking majority.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    @AP


    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos)
     
    America's founding stock were Anglo-Saxons, and they still constituted roughly half the population and the bulk of the ruling elites up to roughly WWII. So America was widely described as an Anglo-Saxon country, with mainstream Americans sometimes called Anglos for short. It's roughly the equivalent of the term "Yank."
  427. @AP
    @songbird


    Not too long ago, you were repeating the progressive narrative that WWI was caused by nationalism
     
    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    Now you seem to have fused the two philosophies, while tossing Christian moralism out with the trash, and demand a universal Ukrainian nationalism
     
    You are being rather frantic.

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors, just as individuals ought to have the means to defend their own homes from criminals.

    People who state that Ukraine should be denied weapons because Ukraine having weapons means more violence when Ukraine is invaded should apply this logic to themselves and their loved ones and practice strict gun control or avoidance of any weapons, because should they be assaulted there would be too much violence if more then just the aggressor were armed.

    Replies: @songbird

    This is the conservative narrative. But what would you know about that?

    No vague appeal to unnamed authority needed. Logically, if it were the conservative narrative, then it wouldn’t be the prevailing narrative today, and it is frankly ridiculous to assert otherwise, in an age when men are called “women.”

    I simply state that Ukraine ought to have the means to defend itself against aggressors

    International arms dealing doesn’t really lend itself to a homes and family message.

  428. @sudden death
    @songbird

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization with sophisticated traditions and rituals.

    Sadly somehow managed to lose the pleasure of reading any fiction over the years, so my recommendations may be out of date, but my own SF favorites were Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers and Futurological Congress by Stanislaw Lem.

    The first being about human psyche shattering consequences after careless and indifferent, almost accidental, short term alien visitors left the Earth and the latter perhaps being not everyone’s cup of tea, where specific type of dried wit is mixed with lots of frantic crazy psychedelic adventures set in some loose 3rd world chaotic backround, full of imaginary semantics and wordplays, but remember myself cackling like crazy while reading. Was reading both those books in Lithuanian translation, so don’t know whether English translations were successfully done.

    Replies: @songbird

    Myself interpreted Drac lineage storyline as sort of allegory/comparison about contrast of relatively „young“ American nation and „old“ Japanese civilization

    It probably was, but when I see a conservative theme, it just resonates with me, because of the rarity of those sort of messages.

    [MORE]

    Kind of like the movie Once Were Warriors. I disliked that movie because it is about domestic violence and has other unpleasant plot points. But I feel like it was meant to be a movie to appeal to progressives and does, but, while I dislike many elements of the story, I really liked what I saw as a pro-rootedness message, which some progressive reviewers didn’t even pick up on, when they gave it glowing reviews.

    so my recommendations may be out of date

    I think it is an inevitable corollary to the idea that society is decadent, that the best stuff is not the most recent.

    Roadside Picnic by Strugatsky brothers

    I have read this one, but not the other. Though, I have read The Cyberiad. Parts of it were pretty funny, even in English translation, but I didn’t appreciate what I interpreted as an atheistic message in one the stories.

    My tastes are probably less literary, so you probably wouldn’t share them, but, off the top of my head, the funniest sci-fi story I’ve read is one I’ve plugged before here: The High Crusade by Poul Anderson. It begins with an alien invasion. Instead of the humans being over-awed, the ship lands where a medieval crusade is gathering, and, though they are underdogs, the martial spirit and faith of the medieval Euros wins the day. It’s pretty lighthearted and you’ve got to suspend your disbelief, time and again, but I saw it as promoting vitality, courage, and vigorous action.

  429. utu says:
    @AP
    @utu


    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945
     
    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.


    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”
     
    Is it disparaging? Didn't know that. So in your opinion this article's headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    "Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend"


    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases
     
    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute - in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    Replies: @AP, @utu, @Mikhail

    “You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians”

    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW’s including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that “the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians” is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    “Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically.” – This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.

    The “kinder and gentler than Russians” people (“and have been so historically”) apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). – Wiki

    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    “And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime ” – I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won’t search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @utu

    I would not have phrased myself so bluntly (politesse is often the enemy of truth) though it's heartening to see someone consistently call a spade a spade. Congratulations for insulting practically everyone here across the whole Zvidomist-to-Putinist spectrum.

    , @Yevardian
    @utu


    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.
     
    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    Replies: @utu, @A123, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Beckow
    @utu

    I asked you this before and you never replied: why shouldn't men from a country where Germans murdered 10 million civilians in turn kill the perpetrators and mistreat their families in Germany who sat at home and cheered it on?

    What is amazing is that Germans were mostly spared after the war. That shows an incredible "kindness and gentleness", something missing among Germans in WWII. It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government starting another self-defeating attack on he east.

    Until you address that and tell us why Germans could do it first, but others shouldn't do it to them later, your writing is only an elaborate distraction. Or what you call "propaganda" with AP.

    AP is misguided: brutality is found in all ethnic groups in a war with smaller differences among groups than within a group. The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole). Still the core issue is that you pretend that nothing before 1944 matters. The treatment of Germans in 1944-47 was a justified retribution. Read the Bible, evil has to be confronted, then and now.

    Replies: @AP, @German_reader

    , @Dmitry
    @utu

    AP just matched a forum culture here, where most people seemed obsessed about essentialist views about nationalities, often as way to boost their ego by attaching themselves to these labels.

    You will not not receive "agree" for comments, here if you explain that this model doesn't explain history, or that you want to understand North/South Korea.

    AP and JackD are similar, not as "propagandists", but because they are successful American paterfamilias, from the same political culture of North-Eastern bourgeoisie, both with a lot of amour-propre.

    At the same time, their amour-propre is attached persecuted nationalities, with unstable self-determination. They are also in forum with a lot of Jewish conspiracy (for JackD) and kremlinbot (for AP) users, which for some strange reason they feel they need to argue with.

    AP himself has adopted a lot of kremlinbot frameworks, which creates a lot of the cultural dissonance compared to talking to Ukrainian netizens. Whereas JackD's real cultural similarity to the Sailer forum, is genuine, that he is racist against African Americans.

    , @AP
    @utu


    So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW’s including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity.
     
    You were in a hole, and chose to dig deeper.

    The 40% figure is important if those 40% were evenly distributed among Soviet forces in Germany at the time of the rapes and mass murders. Were they? The victims themselves identified their attackers as "Russians" and "Mongols." Might they have assumed Ukrainians were Russians? Probably to some extent, but enough to miss 40% of attackers? Doubtful.

    Some parts of Poland were also subject to rape by Soviet soldiers. Poles would be better than Germans at differentiating Russians from Ukrainians. Guess what? They described their Soviet attackers as Russians, not as Ukrainians:

    https://magazyn.wp.pl/ksiazki/artykul/zbrodnia-w-borucinie-zmurszala-pamiec

    But now let's look at the units in Germany at the time of the rapes. I posted a link. You conveniently ignored it. It didn't support your lies about the decent Ukrainians.

    Berlin was captured by the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army

    Not every unit's origin is listed, but those that are listed show origins in Russia: Urals (Russians, some Bashkirs or Tatars), Volga (Russians, some Tatars), Voronezh (Russians), Transbaikal (Russians and Buryats).

    Here is the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Group_of_Soviet_Forces_in_Germany

    1. First Tank Army, formed on the basis of the 29th Tank army that had been created in the Moscow military district (Russians)
    2. 2nd Guards Tank Army - units created in Tambov (Russians) and Kiev (Ukrainians)
    3. 4th Guards Tank Army - units created in Urals (Russians and Bashkirs), Perm (Russians)
    4. 2nd Shock Army - units created in northern Russia, Urals
    5. 3rd Shock army - units came from Central Asia, Urals
    6. 8th Guards Army (see above) - Russians and some Buryats

    Mostly Russians and "Mongolians"

    Your argument that “the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians” is just another of your primitive lies
     
    Retract this lie. Here are victims describing Mongol attackers:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=mmPklXqPHGwC&pg=PA60&lpg#v=onepage&q&f=false

    I looked through several google books about this. Once a Ukrainian attacker was mentioned, but otherwise it was Russians or Mongols.

    I'm not going to go further into this, but your claim that 40% of attackers were ethnic Ukrainians was a lie.

    I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages
     
    I haven't seen this but it can be inferred from witness statements and units present at the time of the crimes.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war
     
    And why would it not? You think there is no correlation between peacetime drinking and wartime drinking? Russians drink nearly twice the amount of hard liquor as Ukrainians. You think in times of war Russians would start to drink less and Ukrainians drink more?

    Interestingly enough, during this war the Russians troops are often drunk and the Ukrainian ones are typically sober.

    Indeed, what Russians had done in occupied Ukraine is very similar to what Russians had been doing in Germany after the war. Getting drunk, raping, robbing and killing local civilians. Elderly Ukrainians living in the outskirts of Kiev and Kharkiv have stated that the Russian troops treated them much worse than had the German soldiers (obviously the German administration was horrible but the regular German soldiers were less indecent than Russians in terms of treatment of civilians).

    The “kinder and gentler than Russians” people (“and have been so historically”) apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century
     
    In the 20th century, Ukrainians killed far fewer civilians than did Germans, Russians, Americans, Brits, Croats, Turks, and various Balkanoids (among Europeans). Poles have cleaner hands than do Ukrainians of course, but Ukrainians are kinder and gentler than Russians.

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%
     
    Population of Volynia was small so higher relative % does not translate into many troops. and unreliable Volynians (Volynia was infested with Banderists) weren't going to get sent to the front in large numbers.

    And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime ” – I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable.
     
    Your recollection was mistaken. Retract it or be a liar.

    I stated that it was wrong and inexcusable, but that it was less inexcusable than larger scale killings because the Ukrainians were fighting for national survival on their own lands. The Brits and Americans who had incinerated far more German civilians than Ukrainians killed Poles were under no threat of German invasion and occupation when this was done. In contrast, Poles were claiming those lands and had even planned to ethnically cleanse them of Ukrainians (through deportations not killings), before the Ukrainians preemptively began the mass killings. I will emphasize again that this is not a justification to murder women, children and other civilians.

    This is what the Poles of Galicia and Volynia had planned before their people were getting killed:

    "Having perceived Ukrainian collaboration with the Soviet government in 1939–1941 and then with the Germans, the local Poles generally thought that Ukrainians ought to be removed from the territories. In July 1942 a memorandum by the staff of the Home Army in Lviv in July 1942 recommended that between 1 million and 1.5 million Ukrainians to be deported from Galicia and Volhynia to the Soviet Union and the rest scattered throughout Poland.[58][59] Suggestions of limited Ukrainian autonomy, as was being discussed by the Home Army in Warsaw and the Polish government-in-exile in London, found no support among the local Poles."

    That line is not about your lies.
     
    I have made mistakes but have never lied here. Unlike you, sadly.

    :::::::::::::

    I am not a Ukrainian nationalist, I like A-H and the PLC better (at least, before Khmelnytsky's treason). But a Ukrainian nation state is better than being stuck in a Polish nationalist or a Russian nationalist one. And the Polish nationalist Dmowski (never married, rumored to be a homosexual blackmailed by the Russians) whose ruinous policies destroyed what was left of the PLC legacy was himself partially responsible for the evil that that was unleashed.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  430. Just happy that my favorite chinese manga is getting a release date for its anime adaptation:

    It looks kino.

  431. @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    I would not have phrased myself so bluntly (politesse is often the enemy of truth) though it’s heartening to see someone consistently call a spade a spade. Congratulations for insulting practically everyone here across the whole Zvidomist-to-Putinist spectrum.

    • Thanks: utu
  432. @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Yevardian

    (1) AK liked intelligent commenters and AP, iirc, never contested AK's silly IQist and transhumanist ideas or questioned the accuracy of AK's predictions which were so dear to AK's ego and heart, (2) AK was so confident that eventually Russia will crush Ukraine that he considered AP's and Mr. Hack's svidomism as mere noises made by flies around's elephant head which however where cranking up the comment count on his blog and (3) Perhaps AP was making handsome donations.

    Replies: @AP

    , @A123
    @Yevardian


    On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other,
     
    If AP was not burdened by pro-violence Ukranians he might be able to make a decent case for his side. I believe he concurs with my point, both national command authorities have an issue with small units and individuals committing unsanctioned acts. For example, violence against POW's

    AP's problem is that the Ukie Maximalists have so hardened the sides with their irrational hate, it is very hard to get thru with a nuanced message. They keep trying to smear me as pro-Putin, when my actual position is that both nations were manipulated into this fight by outside forces.


    even as [AK] exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago
     
    The volume of irrational, Ukie Maximalist posting surged, so at some level I under his frustration. The reemergence of various GerardBots exacerbated an already unpleasant situation.

    This should be the place to rationally examine the current situation that is going badly for Russia and even worse for Ukraine. Instead anything that does not conform to Ukie Maximalist dogma receives rage posting. They desperately want Cancel Culture to suppress anything that is not 100% pro-Ukie and are very agitated about free speech.


    lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage.
     
    I certainly do not want to lash out the mentally ill Mr. Hack. He is the only person on my blocked commenters list placed there out if compassion. I do not want to be the one to push him over the edge into self harm. He really needs psychiatric intervention, but that is something that I cannot arrange.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Yevardian

    I can't recall AP ever insulting me, nor have I ever seen him mouthing me off behind my back, so why would it be surprising that I return the favor, while treating the conmen, frauds, and backstabbing weasels who have hijacked my former blog with the precise level of respect they deserve?

  433. utu says:
    @Yevardian
    @utu


    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.
     
    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    Replies: @utu, @A123, @Anatoly Karlin

    (1) AK liked intelligent commenters and AP, iirc, never contested AK’s silly IQist and transhumanist ideas or questioned the accuracy of AK’s predictions which were so dear to AK’s ego and heart, (2) AK was so confident that eventually Russia will crush Ukraine that he considered AP’s and Mr. Hack’s svidomism as mere noises made by flies around’s elephant head which however where cranking up the comment count on his blog and (3) Perhaps AP was making handsome donations.

    • Replies: @AP
    @utu

    (1) I agree with AK on IQ mostly (in terms of effects but not in terms of moral judgment of peoples worth), but have no interest in debating in this topic. I have almost no interest in science fiction and transhumanism seems like that to me. So I don’t discuss that either. Too boring for me to learn about it or to really debate it.

    (3) I treated him at a cafe in Moscow once, he would not be swayed by such a trifle (or by more, he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  434. @AP
    @German_reader


    The English will be a minority in their own country in just 35-40 years, long before that in most urban centres
     
    I wouldn’t like that but they don’t seem to mind it, as long as they are in charge and wealthy.

    I don’t know if the quality of life is really that excellent for the English prole girls who have been forced into sexual servitude by Paki rape gangs
     
    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    Replies: @Coconuts

    Good point, I am more familiar with North America. Might a lot of those prole girls in England be the descendants of non-English settlers moving into factory towns? People with that background like the singer Morrissey are often of Irish descent. Not that this makes it better, but it suggests that Anglos themselves are not as harmed by it. The English countryside populated by English people seems to still be very nice.

    Many of the girls apparently were in care, but far from all, there was a memorable podcast interview with an obviously middle class girl who became a victim of one of these gangs. The relevant variable seems to have been the presence of a Pakistani or Bangladeshi community in the area, there have been grooming cases across England, wherever this is the case.

    This issue is suggestive of the ways in which the British elite is not always all that concerned about its population, if it has some other overriding goal to pursue. (I think now it would be wrong to say just the Anglo elite, given the way that growing numbers of non-Anglos are becoming part of it.)

    The question for Ukrainian nationalism would be that one of these overriding goals looks to be establishing universal liberalism or the ‘Republic of Humanity’ thing, under their leadership. In UK media you can see the Ukrainian conflict being seen through this lens. Recall Victor Hugo writing in 1867:

    ‘Goodbye people! Hello Humanity! Suffer your fateful and sublime enlargement, o my fatherland, and, in the same way as Athens became Greece, in the same way as Rome became Christendom, you France will become the world… France has the admirable quality of being destined to die, but to die like a god, by transfiguration.’

    Ukraine, UK, Germany… etc. each could equally be substituted for France within this worldview.

    • Agree: sher singh, songbird
  435. S says:

    Using the corporate mass media to psychologically prepare people for a world war has been done before, ie the 1936 movie Things to Come prior to WWII. World War Z, err III, increasingly would seem no different.

    Putin (like Trump and Zelensky) as controlled opposition has performed in particularly flawless fashion here (as usual) with his overseeing the seemingly peculiar adoption of ‘Z’, a letter that is not even part of the Cyrillic alphabet, to both symbolize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to remind people everywhere (even if but subconsciously) just what this act during a time of Coronavirus is intended to do, ie namely set off a world war.

    Below is a description of the 2006 novel World War Z, later in 2013 to be made into a movie by the same name:

    An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are “enough dead heroes for the end of time.”

    The global pandemic begins around twenty years previously in China, which covers up the outbreak and engineers a military crisis with Taiwan to avoid appearing weak internationally. As a result, the disease becomes known as “African Rabies” when cases in South Africa become widely known. Other than Israel, which institutes a “self-quarantine” and constructs a border wall, most of the world largely ignores the threat for the next year. The United States in particular is depicted as overconfident and distracted by an election year, while a widely marketed placebo vaccine, Phalanx, creates a false sense of security.

    The following spring, a journalist reveals that Phalanx does nothing to prevent zombification, and that the infected are not victims of rabies but rather walking corpses, sparking an event known as the “Great Panic”. Order breaks down around the globe, with rioting, breakdown of essential services, and indiscriminate culling of citizens killing more people than the zombies themselves…

    …Seven years later, after a United Nations conference held off the coast of Hawaii, leading world nations decide to go back on the offensive. New tactics have to be invented for a war of extermination in which every last zombie must be destroyed to avoid reinfection, and casualties are high. An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are “enough dead heroes for the end of time.”

    • Replies: @S
    @S

    As mentioned, film has been used before to psychologically prep people in advance to embrace a world war.

    There were three Anglo-American movies (that I know of, there were probably more, see links below) which years in advance declared WWII would specifically start in the year 1940. Each of these films, to entice viewership, featured a lot of then high-tech such as television and vid-phones, etc, so that people would pay and come see about the future world war, which in two of the films clearly involves Germany.

    The films were High Treason (1929), Men Must Fight (1933), and Things to Come (1936).

    All these films can be seen free on YouTube (or elsewhere) on the net.

    High Treason, bearing in mind it was 1929 (after all) is of a particular interest.

    The aerial attack upon New York City in Men Must Fight (1933)

    https://pre-code.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/MenMustFight19-768x594.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Treason_(1929_British_film)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men_Must_Fight

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Things_to_Come

    Replies: @sudden death

  436. @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    China is not going to outright offend the EU and was always going abide strict neutrality.
     
    I personally favour a more balanced EU foreign policy re: China, but I also know that the EU is not a subject in international geopolitics. It is an object - controlled by the US.

    So your wish is essentially impossible given who's actually in the driver's seat. The Russians understand this, yet China seemingly belabours under the delusion that this reality can be wished away.


    With Russian military performing as it is and the Shanghai lockdowns, this has been a humiliating month for CPC.
     

    The "Pepe Escobar worldview" has taken a massive beating.

    The one silver lining for PRC is that it doesn’t have to worry about Russia switching sides to US and Japan. Other than that there’s not much Russia can do for China.
     
    Other than cheap energy? But yes, you're right. Even arms shipments are not really relevant anymore as China has caught up in all almost all areas and even surpassed Russia in some (e.g. avionics electronics).

    Beijing clearly doesn't want Putin's regime to fall as chaos would be bad for China's interests but outside of that, why would China stick their neck out? There were always limits to how far China would want to support Russia. This may offend vatniks but it is the simple truth.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    controlled by the US
    Exactly, it’s been very well articulated by PRC that it stakes in a pro-EU position and seeks for Europe to upgrade from a “chess piece” to “chess player”.

    What is far less well articulated is that PRC is far more reluctant to let Japan to also upgrade to a “chess player”. But this is consequential as you see from Scholz’s Japan visit that it is clearly meant as snub towards China.

    All sides are being myopic somewhat:
    – The last time Germany was forced to picked a side between China and Japan was 1938, end of Sino-German cooperation. The economic results were not good because Germany’s economy is far more complementary to China’s than Japan’s.

    (Germany does six times more trade with China than Japan; Japan does eight times more trade with China than Germany)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/japans-top-import-partners/

    – Its good if Germany doesn’t feel that it must take a side again, the relationship between China and Japan is not as horrible as it often sounds. The Japan ruling faction of Kishida’s position is based on anti-Russia rather than anti-China.

    – The Chinese are seething over the German snub and are trolling about Axis 2.0, but not appreciating that Japan’s historical militaristic expansionism was significantly a reaction to Russia/Soviet expansion.

    It isn’t that China doesn’t want to stick their necks out for Russia. Its that no one does free favors for anyone else in geopolitics, period. In the PRC is remembered fondly the Golden Era of Sino-Soviet friendship in 50’s when Soviets provided instrumental help for industrial foundation; but that was not a free favor because it involved massive Chinese casualties in the Korean War, a war instigated by Stalin and Kim.

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about “self-actualization” topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China’s pop. can afford to shrink by at least half 😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5S3YGXQ85Q

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Apparently the argument at the top that the world has to be depopulated is the planet cannot support a prosperous billion chinamen, ergo nine tenths of everybody has got to go. Equitably distribute the pain.

    The private jets get to stay of course. Let's not get carried away.

    , @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about “self-actualization” topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China’s pop. can afford to shrink by at least half
     
    I've been pretty clear in my predictions on China's future that I expect Beijing to achieve full spectrum "self-mastery" in all critical technologies - though I warn that the process will be more grinding and drawn-out than many Han nationalists may imagine it to be.

    A China at half its current population size, or frankly even a third, will still be unassailable. Moreover, it's important to understand something about demographics... it isn't just about quantity, but perhaps more so about quality.

    Steve Hsu wrote up a very good piece on this distinction last year and I encourage you to read it. The TL;DR is that even by conservative estimates, China will have about 2X the amount of math top-performers compared to the entire OECD, the main competition. Math is the queen of sciences as we know, and it is the foundation for any innovative capability. So, China can sleep easy.

    That said, a multitude of other reasons, which I won't lay out now in the interest of brevity, will get in the way of allowing China to surpass the US GDP by 2X or more, which is what is required for China to replace the US as the dominant global hegemon. My contention is that America's power cannot only be measured by its own GDP but you have to add its puppets to the sum total.

    As I've argued tirelessly on numerous occasions, I'm not convinced that China even wants the burden of becoming the global hegemon,with all that such a function would entail. It just seems to be a mordant fear among D.C. policy circles. I suspect China will be perfectly happy to merely dominate their littoral and near abroad, combined with technological self-sufficiency. If those conditions are achieved, I'm far from convinced that Beijing would want much more. Maybe you disagree.
  437. A123 says: • Website
    @sudden death
    @A123

    Remember your cited comments quite well as surprisingly it was very lucid and accurate interpretation of events, however yet again it does not have anything to do with my raised point about having slimy duplicit position - spot market machinations did not affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen, because long term contract was being fulfilled by Gazprom at the time.

    So, great international humanitarian SJW keeps mouth frothing about "Ukrainian war criminals" while still playing dead opposum when confronted with the fresh equivalent act of RF-ian war criminals led by Putin, whom unilateraly terminated the contract and cut the gas supply for ordinary Polish and Bulgarian people daily living needs.

    Replies: @A123

    Your histrionic ad hominem attack rests on “facts not in evidence”.

    affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen

    If you absurdly make this accusation yet close the door on market forces as a whole you must. Prove that the harmed “Kitchen Pole”

        • Was *not* harmed by market forces
        • Was *directly* harmed by Gazprom delivery failure after purchase

    Given that few (more likely no) private kitchens pay for and receive gas directly from Gazprom you have quite the difficult challenge.
    ____

    Even if you could succeed. That does not serve as justification or cover for the Ukranian government’s much more blatant War Crime.

    The Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam in 2014 to stop 100% of flow in the Crimean Water Canal. This was done to target civilian farmers. As a matter of objective fact there is a direct connection between the Punishment Dam and farm failures.

    I believe there was a feeble attempt to fabricate some sort of justification that ignored 50+ years of historical water flows that did not occur under a water supply contract. The absurdist effort at unilateral creation of a mythical contract was ludicrous. Everybody laughed at the fictional non-contract that was never legitimate.
    _____

    Also note: Poland does not seem terribly agitated by Russia”s actions (1)

    Poland will be independent of Russian gas within half a year thanks to its long-term efforts to secure alternative supplies, the country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has announced on a visit to Austria. He called for other countries to do the same in order to “cut oxygen” from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    The Law and Justice (PiS) government has for years been seeking to end Poland’s reliance on Russian gas. In 2019, it announced that it would halt the permanent import of Russian gas once the current contract with Gazprom expires at the end of this year.

    If Poland does not want Russia gas, why are you so mouth frothingly histrionic about Poland refusing it? Theoretically, Russia would likely win a court case against Poland for breaking the contract.

    You will also recall that I have mentioned the Baltic1 pipeline multiple times (2).

    If anything I am providing “breaking news” about Eastern European energy independence. I keep sharing about the near certainty of much larger Baltic2 project that is still in the concept phase. Potential investors are reputedly chasing the project in excess of the funding requirement. That never happen in the industry.
    ___

    News exclusive to Bulgaria rarely reaches English language media. So, I have no details there. Have you heard that:
       • The Bulgarian import authority paid and then Gazprom refused to deliver?
       • Or, were Bulgarian civilians targeted for collective punishment by the Bulgarian government via some sort of refusal to pay in Rubles scenario?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/10/poland-will-be-independent-from-russian-gas-in-six-months-says-pm/

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/baltic-pipe-project/

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    Your feeble attempt to classify Russia's inability to cement a commercial contract with Ukraine over the procurement of water for its possession in the Crimea, that, let's be honest, a possession that was due to an illegal land grab in the first place, once again falls on deaf ears. It's a story that elicits no sympathy from anybody that actually takes the time to delve into the particulars a little bit further than what you've been able to do so far. I'm going to copy/paste some information presented by an eminent international lawyer. Oleksii Portnikov, that is quite acquainted with the facts and issues surrounding your monotonous but groundless pleas for human rights issues that just don't really hold up, taken from the "Blog of the European Journal of International Law":


    In all those cases the Court concluded that a violation of Article 8 may occur if a state fails to comply with its positive obligation to ensure access to drinking water...Importantly, the issue here revolves exactly around positive obligations.Water does not flow naturally into Crimea, and the Canal is an artificial hydraulic structure, which requires human labour to operate. It cannot be compared to a river, but rather (similarly to Hudorovic), to a water pipeline. This pipeline provided water to consumers under the commercial contracts. After Russia took control over the Canal facilities in Crimea, it never officially proposed Ukraine to negotiate a contract on renewal of water supply. Thus, water could not reach the consumers if Ukraine acted negatively (in other words, simply did nothing)... the Court may experience difficulties in establishing the law of which state applies in the case. If it does find, that it is the law of Ukraine, the latter is likely to claim that the closure of the Canal resulted from a commercial dispute and an outstanding debt. As for legitimate aim, here Ukraine is likely to refer to the situation of an armed conflict threatening the life of the nation and the legitimate aim of protection of sovereignty. ..Two days following the submission, the ECtHR dismissed the Russian Rule 39 request asking to order Ukraine “to suspend the blockade of the North Crimean Canal”. As of now, the Court does not see a risk of irreparable harm of a core right under the Convention. Russia failed to obtain an immediate solution of the water crisis.
     
    https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-proceedings-flow-while-water-does-not-russias-claims-concerning-the-north-crimean-canal-in-strasbourg/

    According to your very unsophisticated current arguments and standards, perhaps we need to consider the court at Strasbourg all a bunch of mental retards for coming to these conclusions, opposite to your own?

  438. @A123
    @sudden death

    Your histrionic ad hominem attack rests on "facts not in evidence".


    affect ordinary Polish citizens cooking meals in the kitchen

     

    If you absurdly make this accusation yet close the door on market forces as a whole you must. Prove that the harmed "Kitchen Pole"

        • Was *not* harmed by market forces
        • Was *directly* harmed by Gazprom delivery failure after purchase

    Given that few (more likely no) private kitchens pay for and receive gas directly from Gazprom you have quite the difficult challenge.
    ____

    Even if you could succeed. That does not serve as justification or cover for the Ukranian government's much more blatant War Crime.

    The Ukrainian government built the Punishment Dam in 2014 to stop 100% of flow in the Crimean Water Canal. This was done to target civilian farmers. As a matter of objective fact there is a direct connection between the Punishment Dam and farm failures.

    I believe there was a feeble attempt to fabricate some sort of justification that ignored 50+ years of historical water flows that did not occur under a water supply contract. The absurdist effort at unilateral creation of a mythical contract was ludicrous. Everybody laughed at the fictional non-contract that was never legitimate.
    _____

    Also note: Poland does not seem terribly agitated by Russia"s actions (1)


    Poland will be independent of Russian gas within half a year thanks to its long-term efforts to secure alternative supplies, the country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has announced on a visit to Austria. He called for other countries to do the same in order to “cut oxygen” from Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    The Law and Justice (PiS) government has for years been seeking to end Poland’s reliance on Russian gas. In 2019, it announced that it would halt the permanent import of Russian gas once the current contract with Gazprom expires at the end of this year.
     

    If Poland does not want Russia gas, why are you so mouth frothingly histrionic about Poland refusing it? Theoretically, Russia would likely win a court case against Poland for breaking the contract.

    You will also recall that I have mentioned the Baltic1 pipeline multiple times (2).

    If anything I am providing "breaking news" about Eastern European energy independence. I keep sharing about the near certainty of much larger Baltic2 project that is still in the concept phase. Potential investors are reputedly chasing the project in excess of the funding requirement. That never happen in the industry.
    ___

    News exclusive to Bulgaria rarely reaches English language media. So, I have no details there. Have you heard that:
       • The Bulgarian import authority paid and then Gazprom refused to deliver?
       • Or, were Bulgarian civilians targeted for collective punishment by the Bulgarian government via some sort of refusal to pay in Rubles scenario?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/10/poland-will-be-independent-from-russian-gas-in-six-months-says-pm/

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/baltic-pipe-project/

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Your feeble attempt to classify Russia’s inability to cement a commercial contract with Ukraine over the procurement of water for its possession in the Crimea, that, let’s be honest, a possession that was due to an illegal land grab in the first place, once again falls on deaf ears. It’s a story that elicits no sympathy from anybody that actually takes the time to delve into the particulars a little bit further than what you’ve been able to do so far. I’m going to copy/paste some information presented by an eminent international lawyer. Oleksii Portnikov, that is quite acquainted with the facts and issues surrounding your monotonous but groundless pleas for human rights issues that just don’t really hold up, taken from the “Blog of the European Journal of International Law”:

    In all those cases the Court concluded that a violation of Article 8 may occur if a state fails to comply with its positive obligation to ensure access to drinking water…Importantly, the issue here revolves exactly around positive obligations.Water does not flow naturally into Crimea, and the Canal is an artificial hydraulic structure, which requires human labour to operate. It cannot be compared to a river, but rather (similarly to Hudorovic), to a water pipeline. This pipeline provided water to consumers under the commercial contracts. After Russia took control over the Canal facilities in Crimea, it never officially proposed Ukraine to negotiate a contract on renewal of water supply. Thus, water could not reach the consumers if Ukraine acted negatively (in other words, simply did nothing)… the Court may experience difficulties in establishing the law of which state applies in the case. If it does find, that it is the law of Ukraine, the latter is likely to claim that the closure of the Canal resulted from a commercial dispute and an outstanding debt. As for legitimate aim, here Ukraine is likely to refer to the situation of an armed conflict threatening the life of the nation and the legitimate aim of protection of sovereignty. ..Two days following the submission, the ECtHR dismissed the Russian Rule 39 request asking to order Ukraine “to suspend the blockade of the North Crimean Canal”. As of now, the Court does not see a risk of irreparable harm of a core right under the Convention. Russia failed to obtain an immediate solution of the water crisis.

    https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-proceedings-flow-while-water-does-not-russias-claims-concerning-the-north-crimean-canal-in-strasbourg/

    According to your very unsophisticated current arguments and standards, perhaps we need to consider the court at Strasbourg all a bunch of mental retards for coming to these conclusions, opposite to your own?

    • Agree: sudden death
  439. S says:
    @S
    Using the corporate mass media to psychologically prepare people for a world war has been done before, ie the 1936 movie Things to Come prior to WWII. World War Z, err III, increasingly would seem no different.

    Putin (like Trump and Zelensky) as controlled opposition has performed in particularly flawless fashion here (as usual) with his overseeing the seemingly peculiar adoption of 'Z', a letter that is not even part of the Cyrillic alphabet, to both symbolize Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and to remind people everywhere (even if but subconsciously) just what this act during a time of Coronavirus is intended to do, ie namely set off a world war.

    Below is a description of the 2006 novel World War Z, later in 2013 to be made into a movie by the same name:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/76/World_War_Z_book_cover.jpg

    An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are "enough dead heroes for the end of time."

    The global pandemic begins around twenty years previously in China, which covers up the outbreak and engineers a military crisis with Taiwan to avoid appearing weak internationally. As a result, the disease becomes known as "African Rabies" when cases in South Africa become widely known. Other than Israel, which institutes a "self-quarantine" and constructs a border wall, most of the world largely ignores the threat for the next year. The United States in particular is depicted as overconfident and distracted by an election year, while a widely marketed placebo vaccine, Phalanx, creates a false sense of security.

    The following spring, a journalist reveals that Phalanx does nothing to prevent zombification, and that the infected are not victims of rabies but rather walking corpses, sparking an event known as the "Great Panic". Order breaks down around the globe, with rioting, breakdown of essential services, and indiscriminate culling of citizens killing more people than the zombies themselves...

    ...Seven years later, after a United Nations conference held off the coast of Hawaii, leading world nations decide to go back on the offensive. New tactics have to be invented for a war of extermination in which every last zombie must be destroyed to avoid reinfection, and casualties are high. An unnamed British Army general comments as the war ends that there are "enough dead heroes for the end of time."
     


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/dc/World_War_Z_poster.jpg

    https://www.newdvdreleasedates.com/images/posters/large/world-war-z-2013-08.jpg

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5_vqoMV0mfs/UaveTyjPfQI/AAAAAAAAAIA/Gkq0JagW3kw/s1600/World+War+Z+Moscow.jpg

    https://wwwflickeringmythc3c8f7.zapwp.com/q:i/r:0/wp:1/w:362/u:https://cdn.flickeringmyth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/world-war-z-600x338.jpg


    https://s3.amazonaws.com/criterion-production/images/2584-34ed5ef45253eb3a96d232f64be8089e/10_original.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_Z

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_Z_(film)

    Replies: @S

    As mentioned, film has been used before to psychologically prep people in advance to embrace a world war.

    There were three Anglo-American movies (that I know of, there were probably more, see links below) which years in advance declared WWII would specifically start in the year 1940. Each of these films, to entice viewership, featured a lot of then high-tech such as television and vid-phones, etc, so that people would pay and come see about the future world war, which in two of the films clearly involves Germany.

    The films were High Treason (1929), Men Must Fight (1933), and Things to Come (1936).

    All these films can be seen free on YouTube (or elsewhere) on the net.

    High Treason, bearing in mind it was 1929 (after all) is of a particular interest.

    The aerial attack upon New York City in Men Must Fight (1933)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Treason_(1929_British_film)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men_Must_Fight

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Things_to_Come

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @S

    Even more - just think how thoroughly those cunning filmakers have been preparing us all for coming space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice ;)

    Replies: @Mikel

  440. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thulean Friend

    controlled by the US
    Exactly, it's been very well articulated by PRC that it stakes in a pro-EU position and seeks for Europe to upgrade from a "chess piece" to "chess player".

    What is far less well articulated is that PRC is far more reluctant to let Japan to also upgrade to a "chess player". But this is consequential as you see from Scholz's Japan visit that it is clearly meant as snub towards China.

    All sides are being myopic somewhat:
    - The last time Germany was forced to picked a side between China and Japan was 1938, end of Sino-German cooperation. The economic results were not good because Germany's economy is far more complementary to China's than Japan's.

    (Germany does six times more trade with China than Japan; Japan does eight times more trade with China than Germany)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/japans-top-import-partners/

    - Its good if Germany doesn't feel that it must take a side again, the relationship between China and Japan is not as horrible as it often sounds. The Japan ruling faction of Kishida's position is based on anti-Russia rather than anti-China.

    - The Chinese are seething over the German snub and are trolling about Axis 2.0, but not appreciating that Japan's historical militaristic expansionism was significantly a reaction to Russia/Soviet expansion.

    It isn't that China doesn't want to stick their necks out for Russia. Its that no one does free favors for anyone else in geopolitics, period. In the PRC is remembered fondly the Golden Era of Sino-Soviet friendship in 50's when Soviets provided instrumental help for industrial foundation; but that was not a free favor because it involved massive Chinese casualties in the Korean War, a war instigated by Stalin and Kim.

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about "self-actualization" topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China's pop. can afford to shrink by at least half ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8k6IgTHSy0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5S3YGXQ85Q

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Thulean Friend

    Apparently the argument at the top that the world has to be depopulated is the planet cannot support a prosperous billion chinamen, ergo nine tenths of everybody has got to go. Equitably distribute the pain.

    The private jets get to stay of course. Let’s not get carried away.

  441. @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    I asked you this before and you never replied: why shouldn’t men from a country where Germans murdered 10 million civilians in turn kill the perpetrators and mistreat their families in Germany who sat at home and cheered it on?

    What is amazing is that Germans were mostly spared after the war. That shows an incredible “kindness and gentleness“, something missing among Germans in WWII. It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government starting another self-defeating attack on he east.

    Until you address that and tell us why Germans could do it first, but others shouldn’t do it to them later, your writing is only an elaborate distraction. Or what you call “propaganda” with AP.

    AP is misguided: brutality is found in all ethnic groups in a war with smaller differences among groups than within a group. The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole). Still the core issue is that you pretend that nothing before 1944 matters. The treatment of Germans in 1944-47 was a justified retribution. Read the Bible, evil has to be confronted, then and now.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole)
     
    Poles and Galicians may outdrink Slovaks but they can’t be compared to Russians. I knew a Galician engineer who worked in Siberia and he was shocked at how much Russians drink. An uncle for around Kiev did military service in central Russia and was likewise amazed. It’s a different level.

    Data match these anecdotes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_alcohol_consumption_per_capita

    Poles slightly less alcohol consumers than Russians (Slovaks beat both) but this is because of beer culture in Poland, Russians get there with vodka or homemade hard liquor. Ukraine which lacks beer culture had 1/4 the ETOH consumption rate of Russia n 1996, still 20% in 2016 (Ukrainian consumers discovered beer and wine more).

    Shots of vodka per month:

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-who-consume-the-most-vodka.html

    Russia at number one with 17.3, Poland in second place with 13.7, Ukrainians in third place with 10. Then Bulgaria 5.3 and Slovakia 4.1. Finland, the champion of Scandinavia, is only in 8th place with 3.2.

    So Russians on average drink about twice as much vodka as do Ukrainians.

    Difference in drinking severity is a divider between Russians and Ukrainians, as anyone who has spent time in both countries would know. People who claim there is no difference are just demonstrating ignorance.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian

    , @German_reader
    @Beckow


    It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government
     
    Is that a reference to this bs photomontage showing Scholz and other German politicians together with vaguely similar looking SS members (with vaguely similar names, like "von Scholz" instead of Scholz)?
    Do you really have to believe even the dumbest Russian propaganda? Doesn't speak well of your critical faculties.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa

  442. AP says:
    @utu
    @Yevardian

    (1) AK liked intelligent commenters and AP, iirc, never contested AK's silly IQist and transhumanist ideas or questioned the accuracy of AK's predictions which were so dear to AK's ego and heart, (2) AK was so confident that eventually Russia will crush Ukraine that he considered AP's and Mr. Hack's svidomism as mere noises made by flies around's elephant head which however where cranking up the comment count on his blog and (3) Perhaps AP was making handsome donations.

    Replies: @AP

    (1) I agree with AK on IQ mostly (in terms of effects but not in terms of moral judgment of peoples worth), but have no interest in debating in this topic. I have almost no interest in science fiction and transhumanism seems like that to me. So I don’t discuss that either. Too boring for me to learn about it or to really debate it.

    (3) I treated him at a cafe in Moscow once, he would not be swayed by such a trifle (or by more, he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP


    he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)
     
    I would have thought just the opposite of him. He liked to brag about how successful he was at playing the bit coin market, sort of intimating that his high IQ was responsible for his relaxed lifestyle. I could, of course be wrong about this. There were a number of character traits that he possessed that I liked. He could show kindness at times by taking the time to explain some concepts in more detail. He was rather laisse faire about allowing dissenting opinions to appear within this blogsite. I think that this war has unhinged him some, bringing out the attempted censorship that he exhibited towards the end of his tenure here. Of course, I loved his usage of sarcasm and abilities to troll somebody in a very effective manner. He must have appreciated me, at least at one time. On at least one occasion he invited me to look him up if ever in Moscow. I was actually looking forward to visiting Moscow, hearing that it was a perfectly great metropolis to visit.
  443. Mikel says:
    @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    I agree that there is a huge market for back-to-the-earth stuff. I find this to exemplified by Mother Earth News which used to be really quirky and interesting, and now has tractor ads every other page in between articles like "13 Chicken Grooming Techniques for Your Flock" or "How to Milk Your Goat Without Ruining Your Manicure". Okay...that's an exaggeration, though not a huge one.

    It's certainly turned into a consumer thing in many ways with the idea that you can't do anything without a $35,000 Kubota tractor and a ton of other very specialized stuff. But everything gets turned into a consumer marketing gimmick nowadays. As was noted above in the thread, when Che Guevara gets turned into a consumer commodity, that says it all.

    The hobby prices of small scale ag stuff reminds of horse items. The same object for a cow will be half the price of a horse version... just of it's perception as being high end. It is possible to avoid the high costs in large part, but it takes seeking out the alternatives. For example, I have a Mennonite farm supply place near me that carries just about everything usually at prices better than online anywhere. I just got a set of chains for my backhoe for $200 less than anywhere online and they had them on the shelf. I was pretty darned happy!

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don't really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world. I talk to quite a few people who have very idealized ideas of farm life or a more "natural" life. I suppose they don't really want that life, but they like the idea of the fantasy version. Such can be an easy mark for advertisers who promise the homesteader experience though insulated from the uncertainty and inconvenience by expert advice and state of the art equipment. Well, that's largely an illusion but I suppose getting the tractor sold is all the dealer is really concerned with!

    On the dowsing, I was interested in why you think that dowsing would be more controversial than other categories paranormal phenomenon? I would think it would be somewhat less than something like spirits or ghosts, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you meant.

    Replies: @Mikel

    perhaps I’m misunderstanding what you meant

    Yes, sorry. Bad choice of words. I meant to say that more than a paranormal phenomenon, dowsing looks like an ability for which still some scientific controversy can be found. In fact, after that previous test with a dowser this skeptic group wrote in their conclusions that they hadn’t proven that dowsing is impossible, just that this person hadn’t been able to show such an ability. But according to Wikipedia, the subject has been quite thoroughly researched and the conventional wisdom is that it lacks scientific merit.

    I think there is a great deal of discontent with the disconnect from the natural world, but that many people don’t really have a true desire to actually experience the unvarnished natural world.

    That’s probably what this well established market with hobby-like prices reveals. There’s a huge number of people trying, in one way or another, to lead a more “natural” life so perhaps we are all not as materialistic in this society as AaronB thinks but, at the same time, most of us are not willing to abandon the pursuit of material wealth so can they afford to charge silly prices that often defeat the purpose. Along with the linseed, I bought 16 oz of chickpea seeds for \$6. I could possibly buy as many chickpeas at a bulk store as what I’m going to harvest for that price but it’s not a popular garden crop in this area so I’m out of luck. I cannot find these seeds at the big box or the local gardening stores so I am prey to the back-to-earth marketeers. Store-bought chickpeas don’t germinate btw. For some reason they are all radiated, even the “organic” ones.

    Unfortunately, local farmers are usually not so helpful with this kind of matters. There are many crops that are possible in this area in a small scale, non commercial way, such as soy, asparagus or, if you’re lucky with the frost dates, even peanuts and some hybrid types of rice. But they’re very skeptic about anything that is non-traditional. Many of them also seem to have fallen prey to Tractor Supply and similar stores.

    I guess that there are two somewhat opposing attitudes one can take with the discontent that you mention. One is that life is too short and you shouldn’t deprive yourself of the benefits of modern life while you also take delight in the joys of contact with nature. The other is that precisely because life is short and ultimately purposeless, one should find spiritual meaning in a life of permanent contact with nature, as we evolved to live before the advent of modernity. All things considered, I think I gravitate toward the former attitude these days.

  444. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian
    @utu


    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.
     
    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    Replies: @utu, @A123, @Anatoly Karlin

    On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other,

    If AP was not burdened by pro-violence Ukranians he might be able to make a decent case for his side. I believe he concurs with my point, both national command authorities have an issue with small units and individuals committing unsanctioned acts. For example, violence against POW’s

    AP’s problem is that the Ukie Maximalists have so hardened the sides with their irrational hate, it is very hard to get thru with a nuanced message. They keep trying to smear me as pro-Putin, when my actual position is that both nations were manipulated into this fight by outside forces.

    even as [AK] exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago

    The volume of irrational, Ukie Maximalist posting surged, so at some level I under his frustration. The reemergence of various GerardBots exacerbated an already unpleasant situation.

    This should be the place to rationally examine the current situation that is going badly for Russia and even worse for Ukraine. Instead anything that does not conform to Ukie Maximalist dogma receives rage posting. They desperately want Cancel Culture to suppress anything that is not 100% pro-Ukie and are very agitated about free speech.

    lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage.

    I certainly do not want to lash out the mentally ill Mr. Hack. He is the only person on my blocked commenters list placed there out if compassion. I do not want to be the one to push him over the edge into self harm. He really needs psychiatric intervention, but that is something that I cannot arrange.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    You're the one lashing out at everybody at this site as being "mentally ill" that doesn't agree with some of your more outlandish points of view. Your inability to directly address views that counter your own in an honest manner, make you a Coward.

  445. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @utu

    I asked you this before and you never replied: why shouldn't men from a country where Germans murdered 10 million civilians in turn kill the perpetrators and mistreat their families in Germany who sat at home and cheered it on?

    What is amazing is that Germans were mostly spared after the war. That shows an incredible "kindness and gentleness", something missing among Germans in WWII. It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government starting another self-defeating attack on he east.

    Until you address that and tell us why Germans could do it first, but others shouldn't do it to them later, your writing is only an elaborate distraction. Or what you call "propaganda" with AP.

    AP is misguided: brutality is found in all ethnic groups in a war with smaller differences among groups than within a group. The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole). Still the core issue is that you pretend that nothing before 1944 matters. The treatment of Germans in 1944-47 was a justified retribution. Read the Bible, evil has to be confronted, then and now.

    Replies: @AP, @German_reader

    The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole)

    Poles and Galicians may outdrink Slovaks but they can’t be compared to Russians. I knew a Galician engineer who worked in Siberia and he was shocked at how much Russians drink. An uncle for around Kiev did military service in central Russia and was likewise amazed. It’s a different level.

    Data match these anecdotes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_alcohol_consumption_per_capita

    Poles slightly less alcohol consumers than Russians (Slovaks beat both) but this is because of beer culture in Poland, Russians get there with vodka or homemade hard liquor. Ukraine which lacks beer culture had 1/4 the ETOH consumption rate of Russia n 1996, still 20% in 2016 (Ukrainian consumers discovered beer and wine more).

    Shots of vodka per month:

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-who-consume-the-most-vodka.html

    Russia at number one with 17.3, Poland in second place with 13.7, Ukrainians in third place with 10. Then Bulgaria 5.3 and Slovakia 4.1. Finland, the champion of Scandinavia, is only in 8th place with 3.2.

    So Russians on average drink about twice as much vodka as do Ukrainians.

    Difference in drinking severity is a divider between Russians and Ukrainians, as anyone who has spent time in both countries would know. People who claim there is no difference are just demonstrating ignorance.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Take the statistics with a grain of salt. They are based on surveys and reported sales that are unreliable especially with personal stuff like drinking, dating, religion, etc... In Slovakia it is impacted by reporting by pubs and restaurants that has a lot to do with how we tax consumption. It is beneficial to report large sales of drinks as an expense write-off - drinks are easily diluted with water, food is not. There are similar local tweaks around the world. In my personal experience nobody drinks as much as the Irish.

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn't the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans. Mass murders were not done by drunks, they were methodically organized by sober Germans and their allies. Germans would not tolerate drunks among the allies - lack of discipline was dangerous.

    The same with the Red Army: drinking was not the issue, the thirst for revenge was. Some units were allowed to go wild, others were punished - it depended on the officers. In any case, the atrocities by Germans were one or two orders of magnitude worse than atrocities against Germans. All else is an attempt to distract - utu does that since he has no arguments: a sad old loser with deep hatreds that he can no longer keep on the inside.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Yevardian
    @AP

    You are sidetracking the issue. Alcohol consumption, whatever the truthm is rather irrelevant vis-a-vis propensity to commit warcrimes. I also noticed on this topic how Beckow suddenly became informative again, when talking about Slovakia, when you filter through the Sovok-educated rhetoric.
    Just look at recent events in Syria or Iraq, hardly places known for being hard-drinking. Which reminds me, I also knew people who experienced the Lebanese civil war, or whose parents did, there are quite a few loose parallels there and events in Ukraine now. Syria always saw Lebanon as a 'rebel province', and, quite legitimately, saw 'Lebanese' as a totally artificial French-created construct, indistinguishable from Syrians, aside from the Maronite core (not dissimilar to Galicians). Syria intervened in the Lebanese Civil War on several occasions, promising to 'rescue' alternatively the Christians or the Muslims from one another.

    You also had the same 'narcissism of small differences' in spades, with extremely vicious sectarian militias variously inspired by incoherent mixtures of fascism, communism, ethno-nationalism and religious millennarianism. You had groups like 'Guardians of the Cedars' calling themselves 'Phoenician', claiming not to understand 'Arabic', seizing on dialectal differences, minor Aramaic substrate and heavy French influence in claiming to speak 'Lebanese', which allowed people in their mental space to see their own neighbors as foreigners, and so on.
    Though I don't claim Svidomism is as bad (yet), if the war drags on I can easily see this sort of thing becoming more common, small lies naturally lead on to big lies once the former is accepted. It always begins as harmless 'white-lies' but eventually the same framework allows creation of necessary mental space for ordinary people to justify their own atrocities.

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII. Country-averaged statistics (lies, damned lies...) are practically meaningless in the context of a mass-mobilised army, perhaps I can be corrected here, but hardly as if the USSR meticulously separated divisions according to nationality, soldiers from every background would generally be pressed into the culture of their division, in wartime far more so. National homogenisation is one of the main purposes of the army anywhere, I do not buy this racialist BS about majority of warcrimes being done by Buryats (how many could there even be?) or whatever.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of 'Dedovschina' (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening. Of course any conflict between two armies coming from this same military culture will be extremely brutal and nasty for this reason alone. In the same sense, I can't dismiss claims of 'false flags' as people with a personal axe to grind like Ritter getting creative, Ukraine afterall became independent after an unholy alliance between nationalist agitators and the local Soviet Security Apparatus, always considered among the most conservative and bloody-minded of any 'Republic' within the USSR.

    Hopefully one day Ukrainians will be mature enough to examine their own past, even Իզրաիլ [will the resident bot process meaning via deixis?] eventually produced the 'New Historians' who deconstructed founding mythos of that country, though as I understand it their school curriculum (and especially self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth foundation fantasy.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

  446. Abrupt chaos ensuing as targets and motives for “denazification” are widening 😉

    JERUSALEM, May 2 (Reuters) – Israel lambasted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday for claiming that Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins, saying it was an “unforgivable” falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.

    In a signal of sharply deteriorating relations with Moscow, the Israeli foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an apology.

    “Such lies are intended to accuse the Jews themselves of the most horrific crimes in history that were committed against them,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

    “The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people for political purposes must stop immediately,” he added.

    Lavrov made the assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to “denazify” Ukraine if the country’s own president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was himself Jewish.

    “When they say ‘What sort of nazification is this if we are Jews’, well I think that Hitler also had Jewish origins, so it means nothing,” Lavrov told Rete 4 channel, speaking through an Italian interpreter.

    “For a long time now we’ve been hearing the wise Jewish people say that the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves,” he added.

    Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel’s memorial to the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust, said the Russian minister’s remarks were “an insult and a severe blow to the victims of the real Nazism”.

    Speaking on Kan radio, Dayan said Lavrov was spreading “an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory with no basis in fact”.

    The identity of one of Hitler’s grandfathers is not known but there has been some speculation, never backed up by any evidence, that he might have been a Jew.

    There was no immediate response for comment from the Russian embassy to Israel or from Lavrov in Moscow.

    Kyiv condemned Lavrov’s words, saying his “heinous remarks” were offensive to Zelenskiy, to Israel, Ukraine and Jews.

    “More broadly, they demonstrate that today’s Russia is full of hatred towards other nations,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

    Israeli Foreign Ministry Yair Lapid, whose grandfather died in the Holocaust, said that accusing Jews of being anti-Semites was “the basest level of racism”. He also dismissed Lavrov’s assertion that pro-Nazi elements held sway over the Ukrainian government and military.

    “The Ukrainians aren’t Nazis. Only the Nazis were Nazis and only they dealt with the systematic destruction of the Jewish people,” Lapid told the YNet news website.

    A German government spokesperson said the idea Hitler had Jewish heritage was “absurd” propaganda. read more

    Israel has expressed repeated support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of straining relations with Russia, a powerbroker in neighbouring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

    However, relations have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

    However, the Ukrainian president has also run into flak in Israel by looking to draw analogies between the conflict in his country and World War Two. In an address to the Israeli parliament in March, Zelenskiy compared the Russian offensive in Ukraine to Nazi Germany’s plan to murder all Jews within its reach during World War Two. read more

    Yad Vashem called his comments “irresponsible,” saying they trivialised the historical facts of the Holocaust.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-denounces-lavrovs-hitler-comments-summons-russian-ambassador-2022-05-02/?utm_source=reddit.com

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @sudden death

    Gross distortions. I'll have more on this in a short bit.

    , @Mikhail
    @sudden death

    As promised:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04052022-sergey-lavrovs-comments-about-jews-oped/

    Replies: @sudden death

  447. @AP
    @Beckow


    The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole)
     
    Poles and Galicians may outdrink Slovaks but they can’t be compared to Russians. I knew a Galician engineer who worked in Siberia and he was shocked at how much Russians drink. An uncle for around Kiev did military service in central Russia and was likewise amazed. It’s a different level.

    Data match these anecdotes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_alcohol_consumption_per_capita

    Poles slightly less alcohol consumers than Russians (Slovaks beat both) but this is because of beer culture in Poland, Russians get there with vodka or homemade hard liquor. Ukraine which lacks beer culture had 1/4 the ETOH consumption rate of Russia n 1996, still 20% in 2016 (Ukrainian consumers discovered beer and wine more).

    Shots of vodka per month:

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-who-consume-the-most-vodka.html

    Russia at number one with 17.3, Poland in second place with 13.7, Ukrainians in third place with 10. Then Bulgaria 5.3 and Slovakia 4.1. Finland, the champion of Scandinavia, is only in 8th place with 3.2.

    So Russians on average drink about twice as much vodka as do Ukrainians.

    Difference in drinking severity is a divider between Russians and Ukrainians, as anyone who has spent time in both countries would know. People who claim there is no difference are just demonstrating ignorance.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian

    Take the statistics with a grain of salt. They are based on surveys and reported sales that are unreliable especially with personal stuff like drinking, dating, religion, etc… In Slovakia it is impacted by reporting by pubs and restaurants that has a lot to do with how we tax consumption. It is beneficial to report large sales of drinks as an expense write-off – drinks are easily diluted with water, food is not. There are similar local tweaks around the world. In my personal experience nobody drinks as much as the Irish.

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans. Mass murders were not done by drunks, they were methodically organized by sober Germans and their allies. Germans would not tolerate drunks among the allies – lack of discipline was dangerous.

    The same with the Red Army: drinking was not the issue, the thirst for revenge was. Some units were allowed to go wild, others were punished – it depended on the officers. In any case, the atrocities by Germans were one or two orders of magnitude worse than atrocities against Germans. All else is an attempt to distract – utu does that since he has no arguments: a sad old loser with deep hatreds that he can no longer keep on the inside.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans
     
    Correct but German violence against civilians was different from Russian (and Buryat/Tuvan) violence against civilians. Germans were mass shooting them or gassing them in organized operations as part of state policy. Russians et al were raping or gang raping and looting in a fairly unorganized way, the state looked the other way or winked at their activities but didn’t organize them.

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    Replies: @AP

  448. @S
    @S

    As mentioned, film has been used before to psychologically prep people in advance to embrace a world war.

    There were three Anglo-American movies (that I know of, there were probably more, see links below) which years in advance declared WWII would specifically start in the year 1940. Each of these films, to entice viewership, featured a lot of then high-tech such as television and vid-phones, etc, so that people would pay and come see about the future world war, which in two of the films clearly involves Germany.

    The films were High Treason (1929), Men Must Fight (1933), and Things to Come (1936).

    All these films can be seen free on YouTube (or elsewhere) on the net.

    High Treason, bearing in mind it was 1929 (after all) is of a particular interest.

    The aerial attack upon New York City in Men Must Fight (1933)

    https://pre-code.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/MenMustFight19-768x594.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Treason_(1929_British_film)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men_Must_Fight

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Things_to_Come

    Replies: @sudden death

    Even more – just think how thoroughly those cunning filmakers have been preparing us all for coming space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice 😉

    • LOL: S
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @sudden death


    space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice
     
    Of all the readily available choices with a growing level of support from the public and politicians (see eg Kizinger's proposal), it definitely is the worst one.

    AK probably doesn't realize how unattractive his triunist crusade is for anyone who is not Russian or Russian-adjacent. But reading some comments here I have the impression that Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainians may have a similar problem. They don't seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    As an example, the day of the first civilian evacuations from Azovstal the BBC's headline for their worldwide audience was that 'some civilians had managed to escape, in spite of Putin declaring that not one fly would get out'. You had to go well into the body of the article to discover that those civilians were actually in Russian hands (in fact, I remember that Putin himself had offered them to evacuate unharmed in his speech).

    Any reader with a short attention span would easily conclude that the Russians had been trying to kill those civilians, that the Azov soldiers that share their last holdout with civilians do so to protect them and that some innocent people had somehow escaped from the Russians.

    The end effect of this sort of reporting, whether purposeful or not, is that more and more people see this war as a conflict between absolute evil against innocent virtuosity and that "we must do something" to stop the Russians, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves.

    The Russians, along with murderous shelling of civilian areas, have certainly shown poor strategy and serious limitations in their conventional forces but their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations. I remember how a few years ago, when they first used their Kalibr missiles in Syria, the Pentagon doubted that they could reach their targets. I see zero reason to expect that the Russian nuclear missiles will not work as intended and that they will not use them if pushed against a corner.

    Replies: @A123, @Triteleia Laxa

  449. @A123
    @Yevardian


    On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other,
     
    If AP was not burdened by pro-violence Ukranians he might be able to make a decent case for his side. I believe he concurs with my point, both national command authorities have an issue with small units and individuals committing unsanctioned acts. For example, violence against POW's

    AP's problem is that the Ukie Maximalists have so hardened the sides with their irrational hate, it is very hard to get thru with a nuanced message. They keep trying to smear me as pro-Putin, when my actual position is that both nations were manipulated into this fight by outside forces.


    even as [AK] exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago
     
    The volume of irrational, Ukie Maximalist posting surged, so at some level I under his frustration. The reemergence of various GerardBots exacerbated an already unpleasant situation.

    This should be the place to rationally examine the current situation that is going badly for Russia and even worse for Ukraine. Instead anything that does not conform to Ukie Maximalist dogma receives rage posting. They desperately want Cancel Culture to suppress anything that is not 100% pro-Ukie and are very agitated about free speech.


    lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage.
     
    I certainly do not want to lash out the mentally ill Mr. Hack. He is the only person on my blocked commenters list placed there out if compassion. I do not want to be the one to push him over the edge into self harm. He really needs psychiatric intervention, but that is something that I cannot arrange.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    You’re the one lashing out at everybody at this site as being “mentally ill” that doesn’t agree with some of your more outlandish points of view. Your inability to directly address views that counter your own in an honest manner, make you a Coward.

  450. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    Take the statistics with a grain of salt. They are based on surveys and reported sales that are unreliable especially with personal stuff like drinking, dating, religion, etc... In Slovakia it is impacted by reporting by pubs and restaurants that has a lot to do with how we tax consumption. It is beneficial to report large sales of drinks as an expense write-off - drinks are easily diluted with water, food is not. There are similar local tweaks around the world. In my personal experience nobody drinks as much as the Irish.

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn't the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans. Mass murders were not done by drunks, they were methodically organized by sober Germans and their allies. Germans would not tolerate drunks among the allies - lack of discipline was dangerous.

    The same with the Red Army: drinking was not the issue, the thirst for revenge was. Some units were allowed to go wild, others were punished - it depended on the officers. In any case, the atrocities by Germans were one or two orders of magnitude worse than atrocities against Germans. All else is an attempt to distract - utu does that since he has no arguments: a sad old loser with deep hatreds that he can no longer keep on the inside.

    Replies: @AP

    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans

    Correct but German violence against civilians was different from Russian (and Buryat/Tuvan) violence against civilians. Germans were mass shooting them or gassing them in organized operations as part of state policy. Russians et al were raping or gang raping and looting in a fairly unorganized way, the state looked the other way or winked at their activities but didn’t organize them.

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    • Replies: @AP
    @AP


    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.
     
    I missed the edit window. I tried to add that drunkenness not only served to differentiate Russians from Ukrainians but also appears as a risk factor for violence with respect to the unorganized “random” nature of violence perpetrated upon German civilians by Soviet troops. Drunk disinhibited people were more likely to do this stuff and Russians were and are more likely to get drunk, disinhibited and violent than are Ukrainians.

    Replies: @Beckow

  451. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thulean Friend

    controlled by the US
    Exactly, it's been very well articulated by PRC that it stakes in a pro-EU position and seeks for Europe to upgrade from a "chess piece" to "chess player".

    What is far less well articulated is that PRC is far more reluctant to let Japan to also upgrade to a "chess player". But this is consequential as you see from Scholz's Japan visit that it is clearly meant as snub towards China.

    All sides are being myopic somewhat:
    - The last time Germany was forced to picked a side between China and Japan was 1938, end of Sino-German cooperation. The economic results were not good because Germany's economy is far more complementary to China's than Japan's.

    (Germany does six times more trade with China than Japan; Japan does eight times more trade with China than Germany)
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/japans-top-import-partners/

    - Its good if Germany doesn't feel that it must take a side again, the relationship between China and Japan is not as horrible as it often sounds. The Japan ruling faction of Kishida's position is based on anti-Russia rather than anti-China.

    - The Chinese are seething over the German snub and are trolling about Axis 2.0, but not appreciating that Japan's historical militaristic expansionism was significantly a reaction to Russia/Soviet expansion.

    It isn't that China doesn't want to stick their necks out for Russia. Its that no one does free favors for anyone else in geopolitics, period. In the PRC is remembered fondly the Golden Era of Sino-Soviet friendship in 50's when Soviets provided instrumental help for industrial foundation; but that was not a free favor because it involved massive Chinese casualties in the Korean War, a war instigated by Stalin and Kim.

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about "self-actualization" topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China's pop. can afford to shrink by at least half ;)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8k6IgTHSy0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5S3YGXQ85Q

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Thulean Friend

    You bring up TFR alot, this is a walk through Stockholm and through Shanghai. I think if Chinese had more space to themselves like Swedes they would also have more time to think about “self-actualization” topics like environment, animal rights, and so on. Rather than empty status-striving. So I think China’s pop. can afford to shrink by at least half

    I’ve been pretty clear in my predictions on China’s future that I expect Beijing to achieve full spectrum “self-mastery” in all critical technologies – though I warn that the process will be more grinding and drawn-out than many Han nationalists may imagine it to be.

    A China at half its current population size, or frankly even a third, will still be unassailable. Moreover, it’s important to understand something about demographics… it isn’t just about quantity, but perhaps more so about quality.

    Steve Hsu wrote up a very good piece on this distinction last year and I encourage you to read it. The TL;DR is that even by conservative estimates, China will have about 2X the amount of math top-performers compared to the entire OECD, the main competition. Math is the queen of sciences as we know, and it is the foundation for any innovative capability. So, China can sleep easy.

    That said, a multitude of other reasons, which I won’t lay out now in the interest of brevity, will get in the way of allowing China to surpass the US GDP by 2X or more, which is what is required for China to replace the US as the dominant global hegemon. My contention is that America’s power cannot only be measured by its own GDP but you have to add its puppets to the sum total.

    As I’ve argued tirelessly on numerous occasions, I’m not convinced that China even wants the burden of becoming the global hegemon,with all that such a function would entail. It just seems to be a mordant fear among D.C. policy circles. I suspect China will be perfectly happy to merely dominate their littoral and near abroad, combined with technological self-sufficiency. If those conditions are achieved, I’m far from convinced that Beijing would want much more. Maybe you disagree.

  452. AP says:
    @AP
    @Beckow


    You extrapolated from your questionable drinking assumption that civilian abuse-rape-murder had to be higher among the more drunk group. That wasn’t the case at all in WWII: the most murderous group by far were the sober Germans
     
    Correct but German violence against civilians was different from Russian (and Buryat/Tuvan) violence against civilians. Germans were mass shooting them or gassing them in organized operations as part of state policy. Russians et al were raping or gang raping and looting in a fairly unorganized way, the state looked the other way or winked at their activities but didn’t organize them.

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    Replies: @AP

    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.

    I missed the edit window. I tried to add that drunkenness not only served to differentiate Russians from Ukrainians but also appears as a risk factor for violence with respect to the unorganized “random” nature of violence perpetrated upon German civilians by Soviet troops. Drunk disinhibited people were more likely to do this stuff and Russians were and are more likely to get drunk, disinhibited and violent than are Ukrainians.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    I still don't buy it, drinking was only one of many factors - one can argue that the thirst for revenge was higher among Ukrainians and Belorussians since their civilians were occupied longer and suffered more. Or that in some eastern cultures the concept of "surrender" doesn't exist, e.g. among Buryats.

    A lot of this is based on anecdotal data that varies from place to place. In Slovakia by far the worst were Galicians who came as German allies in summer 1944 to clear countryside of partisans. Horrible abuse, but no particular reports of drinking. Then in 1945-47 we had Bandera groups that were trying to fight their way across Czecho-Slovakia to escape to Germany - more people from that generation fought "Banderovci" after WWII then fought in WWII. This is a deep well known memory that impacts how we see Ukrainian nationalism - Bandera bands routinely burnt villages and murdered civilians. The same happened in Poland with similar memories.

    Red Army is remembered as massive, chaotic, friendly, sacrificing a lot as the Germans tried to turn Bohemia into a fortress. The main abuse by Red Army was taking watches and nurses trying to marry any man so they could stay. We also had Romanians who switched sides in 1944 and were accompanying the Red Army, they are remembered for not having weapons or shoes and being hungry, so they stole or begged.

    What Germans did till the very end, killing people randomly and unnecessary as they retreated from a town, nobody else did. That was a unique evil and was done by regular Germans willingly. It is in their DNA, or maybe the Western DNA in general - see what they advised the Ukies to do in Mariupol, the same mindless brutality against civilians, destruction, with no purpose but spite and hatred.

  453. @AP
    @utu

    (1) I agree with AK on IQ mostly (in terms of effects but not in terms of moral judgment of peoples worth), but have no interest in debating in this topic. I have almost no interest in science fiction and transhumanism seems like that to me. So I don’t discuss that either. Too boring for me to learn about it or to really debate it.

    (3) I treated him at a cafe in Moscow once, he would not be swayed by such a trifle (or by more, he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    he doesn’t strike me as being motivated by financial interests in terms of his ideals)

    I would have thought just the opposite of him. He liked to brag about how successful he was at playing the bit coin market, sort of intimating that his high IQ was responsible for his relaxed lifestyle. I could, of course be wrong about this. There were a number of character traits that he possessed that I liked. He could show kindness at times by taking the time to explain some concepts in more detail. He was rather laisse faire about allowing dissenting opinions to appear within this blogsite. I think that this war has unhinged him some, bringing out the attempted censorship that he exhibited towards the end of his tenure here. Of course, I loved his usage of sarcasm and abilities to troll somebody in a very effective manner. He must have appreciated me, at least at one time. On at least one occasion he invited me to look him up if ever in Moscow. I was actually looking forward to visiting Moscow, hearing that it was a perfectly great metropolis to visit.

  454. S says:

    As they seem to be copying (in detail) the events leading up to WWII in preparation for WWIII, it might be useful to study some of those past pre WWII details.

    One such detail was the establishment in 1940 of the covert British Security Co-ordination (BSC) agency intended to influence US public opinion in favor of Britain and encourage US entry into the war.

    BSC HQ Location in NY City During WWII

    ‘As a ‘huge secret agency of nationwide news manipulation and black propaganda’, the BSC influenced news coverage in the Herald Tribune, the New York Post, The Baltimore Sun, and Radio New York Worldwide.’

    British Security Co-ordination (BSC) was a covert organisation set up in New York City by the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) in May 1940 upon the authorisation of the Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.

    Its purpose was to investigate enemy activities, prevent sabotage against British interests in the Americas, and mobilise pro-British opinion in the Americas. As a ‘huge secret agency of nationwide news manipulation and black propaganda’, the BSC influenced news coverage in the Herald Tribune, the New York Post, The Baltimore Sun, and Radio New York Worldwide. The stories disseminated from the organisation’s offices at Rockefeller Center would then be legitimately picked up by other radio stations and newspapers, before being relayed to the American public. Through this, anti-German stories were placed in major American media outlets to help turn public opinion.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Security_Co-ordination

    • Thanks: Mikel
  455. @AP
    @AP


    More importantly, the witnesses described the Soviet rapists as typically being drunk so different levels of drinking are relevant when trying to determine whether they were more likely to be Russians or Ukrainians.
     
    I missed the edit window. I tried to add that drunkenness not only served to differentiate Russians from Ukrainians but also appears as a risk factor for violence with respect to the unorganized “random” nature of violence perpetrated upon German civilians by Soviet troops. Drunk disinhibited people were more likely to do this stuff and Russians were and are more likely to get drunk, disinhibited and violent than are Ukrainians.

    Replies: @Beckow

    I still don’t buy it, drinking was only one of many factors – one can argue that the thirst for revenge was higher among Ukrainians and Belorussians since their civilians were occupied longer and suffered more. Or that in some eastern cultures the concept of “surrender” doesn’t exist, e.g. among Buryats.

    A lot of this is based on anecdotal data that varies from place to place. In Slovakia by far the worst were Galicians who came as German allies in summer 1944 to clear countryside of partisans. Horrible abuse, but no particular reports of drinking. Then in 1945-47 we had Bandera groups that were trying to fight their way across Czecho-Slovakia to escape to Germany – more people from that generation fought “Banderovci” after WWII then fought in WWII. This is a deep well known memory that impacts how we see Ukrainian nationalism – Bandera bands routinely burnt villages and murdered civilians. The same happened in Poland with similar memories.

    Red Army is remembered as massive, chaotic, friendly, sacrificing a lot as the Germans tried to turn Bohemia into a fortress. The main abuse by Red Army was taking watches and nurses trying to marry any man so they could stay. We also had Romanians who switched sides in 1944 and were accompanying the Red Army, they are remembered for not having weapons or shoes and being hungry, so they stole or begged.

    What Germans did till the very end, killing people randomly and unnecessary as they retreated from a town, nobody else did. That was a unique evil and was done by regular Germans willingly. It is in their DNA, or maybe the Western DNA in general – see what they advised the Ukies to do in Mariupol, the same mindless brutality against civilians, destruction, with no purpose but spite and hatred.

  456. German_reader says:
    @Beckow
    @utu

    I asked you this before and you never replied: why shouldn't men from a country where Germans murdered 10 million civilians in turn kill the perpetrators and mistreat their families in Germany who sat at home and cheered it on?

    What is amazing is that Germans were mostly spared after the war. That shows an incredible "kindness and gentleness", something missing among Germans in WWII. It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government starting another self-defeating attack on he east.

    Until you address that and tell us why Germans could do it first, but others shouldn't do it to them later, your writing is only an elaborate distraction. Or what you call "propaganda" with AP.

    AP is misguided: brutality is found in all ethnic groups in a war with smaller differences among groups than within a group. The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole). Still the core issue is that you pretend that nothing before 1944 matters. The treatment of Germans in 1944-47 was a justified retribution. Read the Bible, evil has to be confronted, then and now.

    Replies: @AP, @German_reader

    It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government

    Is that a reference to this bs photomontage showing Scholz and other German politicians together with vaguely similar looking SS members (with vaguely similar names, like “von Scholz” instead of Scholz)?
    Do you really have to believe even the dumbest Russian propaganda? Doesn’t speak well of your critical faculties.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @German_reader

    Not sure about Scholz, I was thinking Ursula who is supposedly a grand-daughter of an SS officer. I know, "show us proof!!!" - suddenly evidence standards become very high, but when it comes to what you like any rumor or allegation by one side suffices. That is a problem.

    There must statistically be numerous Nazi offspring in the German establishment - it is simple math. If you want a specific person, just ask them - I am sure they will voluntarily tell us. This incredible level of "proof" demand in a situation where it is mathematically impossible for many members of the German government-Parliament not to be grandkids of Nazis is very amusing. You think we have to live in your world.

    On to Moscow!!!! this time with global warming it may work better.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    It's really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as "Literal Hitler" at some point by someone.

    Really it's almost a slight to not be called a Nazi or Literal Hitler. Any person of consequence should strive for it, I guess, so that they know they have really made it in life.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

  457. @utu
    @Dmitry

    You are trolling, Dmitri. Watch the videos yourself first and give us specific examples of "obstacles for [weapons] being useful for Ukrainians".

    If the alleged obstacle is lack of training of Ukrainian crews and soldiers the only course of action is to organize training as soon as possible and not using it as an argument against giving that weapons to Ukrainians. Excuses heard from Germany and its administration on different levels of decision chain are obstructionist in nature.

    The lack of political will on the part of Germany political class so far is the biggest obstacle of providing weapons to Ukraine by Germany but also by former Warsaw Pact countries which are willing to provide Soviet made weapons. Lithuania was blocked by Germany to provide weapons that formerly belonged to DDR. Also Czech Republic was delayed by Germany in providing former East German weapons which Czech Republic acquired from Sweden. However there are some signs of change in case of Slovenia. But Slovakia got Patriots batteries from the US to provide S-300 to Ukraine, which btw Russians claimed that they have already destroyed.

    Hopefully this will change as more and more Germans are in favor of supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. I am sure that there is American and British pressure and German media are critical of obstructionism by Scholz government.

    Germany political class does not want Ukraine to succeed at all or to succeed too much. So far the heavy lifting for Ukraine comes from the US, the UK and Poland (200 tanks from Poland). Germany and France as relatively large military powers and rich countries did disproportionately much less.

    IMO the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin was cooking they and the UK began training and supplying Ukraine in the fall of 2021. They did not know how Ukraine would perform but if Ukrainian performance would be better than what was expected by many analysts and Russian disinformation agents large supplies of weapons would flow to Ukraine. Germany otoh was not ready for such possibility and still is not ready to accept that Putin miscalculated and is going to be defeated.

    The success of Ukraine on the battlefield showed to the world and China in particular that Russian military is weak and inept and the response of the West which somehow managed to get unified in military support and sanctions made the US change its pivot from that to China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China a lesson in Ukraine. Killing the chicken in Ukraine shows the monkey in Beijing who is the boss. Putin did not realize that he solved for America her Chinese problem. Taiwan will be sovereign and independently sooner that it was expected. We will just have to suffer from few tantrums of Xi and Taiwan will be free.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

    videos yourself first and give us specific examples of “obstacles

    Those are high quality YouTube channels which explained the situation better. There is no troll to use those channels.

    Problem with Germany giving Marder is explained.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=616.

    Problem with Germany giving “Gepard” self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.
    https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=789.

    Panzerhaubitze 2000 will be not suitable for maintaining or moving,
    https://youtu.be/F_DS6UvZXPo?t=674.

    Problems maintaining Leopard 1 tank (which has very weak armor, etc).
    https://youtu.be/SYZfvi0Ab78?t=924.

    Adjusting to these heavy weapons systems is usually something that requires months or years.

    (200 tanks from Poland

    They are 200 T-72 M from storage. Even in 1979, they have downgraded armor compared to the non-export model used by the Soviet army.

    If you were in Ukrainian military, you might be considering whether soldiers would be more effective and safe outside than inside such tanks.

    from the US, the UK and Poland

    US, UK and Turkey are giving battle changing equipment from the Ukrainian point of view, but probably not Poland (at least those T-72 M).

    It is mainly not heavy equipment. Bayraktar TB2 is successful because it is so miniturized so difficult for radar and cheap, disposable product.

    America is going to train 20 Ukrainian soldiers this week with the Phoenix Ghost drone.
    https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1521161337262551041. These are the kind of equipment which are scary and there is no technological answer in the Russian military.

    the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin

    Obama, Trump and Biden, did not want America to increase its spending in Europe, and consider (correctly) Russia is not a rival for the USA, except in terms of its legacy inheritance of nuclear weapons.

    Ukraine’s army is therefore extremely weak, lacking almost any modern equipment, with 0 navy and almost 0 airforce.

    However, because Ukraine’s military is so weak, this created an extreme perceived unbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine. We see now retrospectively, that this lack of balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, has increased probability of invasion of Ukraine, almost like a trap for Putin.

    Too much lack of balance, but can be more dangerous, than the balance of power.

    I wonder what historical counterfactual would be if there were American presidents, John McCain (who still believed Russia was a rival of the USA, as a Cold Warrior), or Marco Rubio (who is just very aggressive geopolitically). They would have established in Ukraine, Patriot missiles, Abrams tanks and F-15 and F-16 planes. This would create more balance of power, as a result counter-intuitively perhaps there would be not this war now.

    China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China

    I think it’s all too much non-matched comparison, to be useful.

    Firstly, China cannot compare their economic situation to Russia. Although there are still memories of the great USSR and inheritance of nuclear weapons and strategic delivery systems, today Russia’s total economy size is similar to Spain, but shared with over three times more people, based in raw materials, and with less industrial base and technology level than Spain or Italy.

    China, on the other hand, is a very fast rising power (although its speed of development will be slow in the middle income trap), with real attempts for modernization, industry and technology. Rival Taiwan, but also potentially Japan, India, USA. China’s rise is not based in raw material prices, but in industrialization. China’s economic structure is more comparable to Turkey, while Russia more like Saudi Arabia. That’s to say, China might become a significant rival for America, and this is what Obama, Trump and Biden have been worried about.

    Secondly, Ukraine should have been easy intrinsically to invade, while Taiwan would be somewhere on the opposite scale, probably more like suicide operations. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/why-china-cannot-invade-taiwan/ Therefore, China would not likely be irrational enough to fall to such a trap, unless Xi Jinping would develop alzheimer’s disease. But China has some extent of collective leadership and their leader perhaps can’t make such irrational or irresponsible decisions.

  458. I wonder if Éamon de Valera could be considered an early version of Leo Varadkar.

    Obviously, very loose analogy. De Valera was not gay, not a PoC, and was a nationalist. In many ways, the comparison would be considered an insult, and probably cause de Valera to turn in his grave.

    But there are certain similarities. Both had a father born outside of Ireland. Though, I doubt Varadkar is even half Irish. Did de Valera became a consensus candidate based on his foreign-sounding name? Just like Varadkar was chosen by inner-party politics.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    I wonder if Éamon de Valera could be considered an early version of Leo Varadkar.
     
    I don't know. Some question just how Irish he really was. De Valera seemed to live forever. :-)

    I know some Irish think it odd and 'convenient' he was spared execution in 1916 (unlike so many other native born and more purely Irish) due purportedly to his American birth. They thought he may have been a 'deep plant' of some type to control or interfere with a newly purportedly free Ireland.

    I don't blame them for their concerns.
  459. German_reader says:
    @utu
    @Dmitry

    You are trolling, Dmitri. Watch the videos yourself first and give us specific examples of "obstacles for [weapons] being useful for Ukrainians".

    If the alleged obstacle is lack of training of Ukrainian crews and soldiers the only course of action is to organize training as soon as possible and not using it as an argument against giving that weapons to Ukrainians. Excuses heard from Germany and its administration on different levels of decision chain are obstructionist in nature.

    The lack of political will on the part of Germany political class so far is the biggest obstacle of providing weapons to Ukraine by Germany but also by former Warsaw Pact countries which are willing to provide Soviet made weapons. Lithuania was blocked by Germany to provide weapons that formerly belonged to DDR. Also Czech Republic was delayed by Germany in providing former East German weapons which Czech Republic acquired from Sweden. However there are some signs of change in case of Slovenia. But Slovakia got Patriots batteries from the US to provide S-300 to Ukraine, which btw Russians claimed that they have already destroyed.

    Hopefully this will change as more and more Germans are in favor of supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. I am sure that there is American and British pressure and German media are critical of obstructionism by Scholz government.

    Germany political class does not want Ukraine to succeed at all or to succeed too much. So far the heavy lifting for Ukraine comes from the US, the UK and Poland (200 tanks from Poland). Germany and France as relatively large military powers and rich countries did disproportionately much less.

    IMO the US did not plan nor wanted to have confrontation with Russia in Ukraine though when they realized what Putin was cooking they and the UK began training and supplying Ukraine in the fall of 2021. They did not know how Ukraine would perform but if Ukrainian performance would be better than what was expected by many analysts and Russian disinformation agents large supplies of weapons would flow to Ukraine. Germany otoh was not ready for such possibility and still is not ready to accept that Putin miscalculated and is going to be defeated.

    The success of Ukraine on the battlefield showed to the world and China in particular that Russian military is weak and inept and the response of the West which somehow managed to get unified in military support and sanctions made the US change its pivot from that to China to that to Russia. They realized that Putin has created them exceptional opportunity of teaching China a lesson in Ukraine. Killing the chicken in Ukraine shows the monkey in Beijing who is the boss. Putin did not realize that he solved for America her Chinese problem. Taiwan will be sovereign and independently sooner that it was expected. We will just have to suffer from few tantrums of Xi and Taiwan will be free.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

    Germany and France as relatively large military powers

    Germany isn’t a “large military power”, its military is a run-down joke, with only a fraction of its nominal strength being operational at any time and tanks and other vehicles being cannibalized for spare parts. Definitely not in the same league as France.
    And besides political factors, this is also another reason why the demands of the Ukrainian ambassador (who basically wants Germany to just hand over much of its useable tanks and artillery) are surreal. If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn’t have much materiel left.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Yes Germany has a very low funded military*, but one of the world's largest military export industries. Part of the debt crisis with Greece and Portugal, also related to buying Germany military equipment (Greece has to cancel a lot of orders finally).

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race, making the same submarines for each side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Hellenic_Navy_ships
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_Forces

    -

    * There was interesting discussion in the last section of the video https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=1300.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @utu
    @German_reader


    If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn’t have much materiel left.
     
    This is what you guys really want, isn't it?. You do not want to have to face the dilemma whether to pull the trigger when the Russians will be coming. No weapons no psychological trauma. Unless you need those weapons to defend against France or Denmark.

    "The idea that Germany delivers weapons that could then be used to kill Russians is very difficult to stomach for many Germans," Marcel Dirsus, a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), told DW.
     

    Replies: @German_reader

  460. @German_reader
    @Beckow


    It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government
     
    Is that a reference to this bs photomontage showing Scholz and other German politicians together with vaguely similar looking SS members (with vaguely similar names, like "von Scholz" instead of Scholz)?
    Do you really have to believe even the dumbest Russian propaganda? Doesn't speak well of your critical faculties.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa

    Not sure about Scholz, I was thinking Ursula who is supposedly a grand-daughter of an SS officer. I know, “show us proof!!!” – suddenly evidence standards become very high, but when it comes to what you like any rumor or allegation by one side suffices. That is a problem.

    There must statistically be numerous Nazi offspring in the German establishment – it is simple math. If you want a specific person, just ask them – I am sure they will voluntarily tell us. This incredible level of “proof” demand in a situation where it is mathematically impossible for many members of the German government-Parliament not to be grandkids of Nazis is very amusing. You think we have to live in your world.

    On to Moscow!!!! this time with global warming it may work better.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Beckow

    The Nazis in Germany are not a problem.

    The Nazis in Tel Aviv and Washington and New York and London and Basel and Brussels are a problem.

  461. S says:

    A friendly PSA and cautionary note from Orwell to watch our own actions closely…


    2+2=5

    Part 3, Chapter 6 – 1984

    Almost unconsciously he traced with his finger in the dust on the table:

    2+2=5

    ‘They can’t get inside you,’ she had said. But they could get inside you. ‘What happens to you here is for ever,’ O’Brien had said. That was a true word. There were things, your own acts, from which you could never recover. Something was killed in your breast: burnt out, cauterized out.

    http://www.george-orwell.org/1984/22.html

  462. @Beckow
    @German_reader

    Not sure about Scholz, I was thinking Ursula who is supposedly a grand-daughter of an SS officer. I know, "show us proof!!!" - suddenly evidence standards become very high, but when it comes to what you like any rumor or allegation by one side suffices. That is a problem.

    There must statistically be numerous Nazi offspring in the German establishment - it is simple math. If you want a specific person, just ask them - I am sure they will voluntarily tell us. This incredible level of "proof" demand in a situation where it is mathematically impossible for many members of the German government-Parliament not to be grandkids of Nazis is very amusing. You think we have to live in your world.

    On to Moscow!!!! this time with global warming it may work better.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    The Nazis in Germany are not a problem.

    The Nazis in Tel Aviv and Washington and New York and London and Basel and Brussels are a problem.

  463. @German_reader
    @utu


    Germany and France as relatively large military powers
     
    Germany isn't a "large military power", its military is a run-down joke, with only a fraction of its nominal strength being operational at any time and tanks and other vehicles being cannibalized for spare parts. Definitely not in the same league as France.
    And besides political factors, this is also another reason why the demands of the Ukrainian ambassador (who basically wants Germany to just hand over much of its useable tanks and artillery) are surreal. If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn't have much materiel left.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    Yes Germany has a very low funded military*, but one of the world’s largest military export industries. Part of the debt crisis with Greece and Portugal, also related to buying Germany military equipment (Greece has to cancel a lot of orders finally).

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race, making the same submarines for each side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Hellenic_Navy_ships
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_Forces

    * There was interesting discussion in the last section of the video https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=1300.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race
     
    Yeah, that's pretty cynical and wrong. I would only sell to Greece.
    Don't have much to add, since I don't know that much about weapons systems and their details. Found this article interesting though:
    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporting-ukraine-for-the-long-war-2/
    They call for a coordinated effort to supply Ukraine with a few types, so issues with spare parts and logistics are minimized. Also suggestions that Ukraine could get MiGs from Egypt.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  464. German_reader says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Yes Germany has a very low funded military*, but one of the world's largest military export industries. Part of the debt crisis with Greece and Portugal, also related to buying Germany military equipment (Greece has to cancel a lot of orders finally).

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race, making the same submarines for each side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Hellenic_Navy_ships
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Turkish_Naval_Forces

    -

    * There was interesting discussion in the last section of the video https://youtu.be/F3c385d5NU0?t=1300.

    Replies: @German_reader

    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race

    Yeah, that’s pretty cynical and wrong. I would only sell to Greece.
    Don’t have much to add, since I don’t know that much about weapons systems and their details. Found this article interesting though:
    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporting-ukraine-for-the-long-war-2/
    They call for a coordinated effort to supply Ukraine with a few types, so issues with spare parts and logistics are minimized. Also suggestions that Ukraine could get MiGs from Egypt.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Germany's policy was cynical, but seems rational from a point of view of self-interest of the local industrialists and workers they employ, while also allowing for less public expenditure in this area for the taxpayers.

    If Germany was implausibly, feeling threat of landwar from Russia. Well, you can always sell more weapons to Poland. And there are American bases there.

    So, why does Germany, need a land army?

    At the same time, Germany has a quite modernized aerial force, that would probably exceed any local threat (e.g. Russia), even without help from Poland (that is buying the most advanced F-16). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    Replies: @Sean

  465. @Triteleia Laxa
    3 factual observations:

    1. Mariupol is still not conquered. Ukrainian resistance stands.

    2. There's no Russian breakthrough in Donbas, or cauldron or encirclement.

    3. The Ukrainian military already retake territory East of Kharkhiv.

    So how does Russia win? Continue to grind out a few kilometres a day in the Donbas?

    Such insubstantial progress against a mobile defence can only mean large casualties. Nevermind losing ground elsewhere.

    Russia is probably two weeks, at most, from exhaustion on this effort, and they might take 50 kilometres in that time. This is dismal. They withdrew much further in a day after their Kyiv advance failed.

    Furthermore, Ukraine are already reinforcing with significant reserves and new Western equipment is beginning to filter into the frontline from when it was delivered 6 weeks ago, but needed to be trained on. For example, there is now footage of the switchblade drones.

    If what happened 6 weeks ago is coming through now, then what happened 5 weeks ago will come through next week etc. Therefore we should all know the avalanche that is coming. The next 6 weeks balance of power is baked in.

    Perhaps Putin can declare national mobilisation on 9th May, but that is too late. It'll take at least a month for it to have an effect. It is likely that the Russian advance will be checked by then, even in their much more limited and concentrated operations since their defeat and retreat in the North. And then Ukraine will be able to exploit as they see fit.

    No expert has called Russian defeat in the Donbas in their current main effort, but you can expect to see the bolder ones do so over the next few days. In a week, almost all will. In 2 weeks, or thereabouts, Ritter, MacGregor et al. will be discussing some sort of Russian "super manoeuvre feint." Or ranting about the irrelevant vanity project "Khinzal." Or some other completely idiotic distraction.

    Essentially, the story of the last 10 days is that despite taking the easiest ground in Ukraine, Russia is taking so little, and what is easiest to take is also easiest to take back.

    And since Russia can't breakthrough on the ground that is most favourable to them, Russia can hardly expect to force the Kyiv government into surrender.

    We are 70 days in and Russia has not yet even taken a Ukrainian city that has resisted. Nor can they operate in the air unimpeded, nevermind the ground.

    I wrote the following to Anatoly more than 6 weeks ago. I could literally write the same thing today and it would still be true. It was shocking and not believed by Russian partisans then. So how insanely more shocking must it be for them now:

    This is a good attempt to be positive, but let’s be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

    1. Achieve air supremacy.

    2. Occupy Mariupol.

    It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

    3. Occupy Kharkiv.

    4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

    5. Occupy Odesa.

    6. Occupy Kyiv.

    This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

    7. Occupy Lviv

    How’s this going to happen?

    8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

    Good luck!

    9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

    Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

    Since you’re still struggling with “1” and have no plans for anything above “4”, I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers’ peace tonight.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @LatW, @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is now in the East where they were in the North in mid-March.

    Meanwhile, they are already in full retreat from Kharkhiv to their own border.

    And Western artillery is not online yet. It outranges Russian artillery and should be finally deployed in the East perhaps tomorrow.

    Russian casualties and defeats are about to skyrocket. Their only option is to withdraw. Even a tactical nuke won’t save them. Its use would sever even China’s tepid friendship. And the West would be forced to escalate to de-escalate itself. Any other response would legitimise the use of nuclear weapons in the 21st Century. I suggest they would be best served by telling Russia that they would bomb every Russian asset within the sovereign borders of Ukraine in 48 hours for 2 weeks as retaliation. There is no response that Russia could have, that they would not have already sunk to. It would be check mate and would force their immediate withdrawal, but in total disgrace.

    Much more sensible they just leave now. Or desperately try and sign a deal for the pre-war borders via referendum. They can probably forget about “no NATO’ though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The artillery being sent to Ukraine is not going to outrange the Russian SP guns. the m777 has a range of around 25k.

    The SP guns the Russians deploy commonly range between 50-70k.

    You are out of your mind.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa


    They can probably forget about “no NATO’ though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.
     
    And their level of stupidity too. Ukraine is already, if not defacto than dejure, a part of NATO. Any observer can see today where Ukraine would be without the help of NATO member countries. This unity is driving Ukraine closer and closer into full membership. Without it, they'll forever be at risk of experiencing the same unprovoked horrors that Moscow has already unleashed on Ukraine.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  466. Mikel says:
    @sudden death
    @S

    Even more - just think how thoroughly those cunning filmakers have been preparing us all for coming space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice ;)

    Replies: @Mikel

    space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice

    Of all the readily available choices with a growing level of support from the public and politicians (see eg Kizinger’s proposal), it definitely is the worst one.

    AK probably doesn’t realize how unattractive his triunist crusade is for anyone who is not Russian or Russian-adjacent. But reading some comments here I have the impression that Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainians may have a similar problem. They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    As an example, the day of the first civilian evacuations from Azovstal the BBC’s headline for their worldwide audience was that ‘some civilians had managed to escape, in spite of Putin declaring that not one fly would get out’. You had to go well into the body of the article to discover that those civilians were actually in Russian hands (in fact, I remember that Putin himself had offered them to evacuate unharmed in his speech).

    Any reader with a short attention span would easily conclude that the Russians had been trying to kill those civilians, that the Azov soldiers that share their last holdout with civilians do so to protect them and that some innocent people had somehow escaped from the Russians.

    The end effect of this sort of reporting, whether purposeful or not, is that more and more people see this war as a conflict between absolute evil against innocent virtuosity and that “we must do something” to stop the Russians, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves.

    The Russians, along with murderous shelling of civilian areas, have certainly shown poor strategy and serious limitations in their conventional forces but their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations. I remember how a few years ago, when they first used their Kalibr missiles in Syria, the Pentagon doubted that they could reach their targets. I see zero reason to expect that the Russian nuclear missiles will not work as intended and that they will not use them if pushed against a corner.

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    @Mikel


    They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.
     
    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    A few pro-Ukraine posters, like AP, likely see the problem. However, there is little they can do about it.

    their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations.
     
    The problem is quantity. Russia is consuming far faster than they can manufacture and replace. The primary reason why RF has not ended fright rail in Ukraine is they cannot. They simply do not have enough precision long range firepower to achieve that goal.

    The RF retains heavy reliance on "tubes" (a.k.a. artillery). It's messy, but it can work if they are willing to grind the target in a less precise and closer range manner.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mikel

    I don't mean this unkindly, but are you perhaps somewhat autistic? As in generally diagnosable with some level of autism?

    You seem to be able to recognise facts, but not really understand why other people assign different levels of importance to them. As if everything true is of equal criticality.

    This also seems to apply conversely, with lies, for you. You find lies outrageous and take them personally, regardless of the context or what the liar is contending with. As if the mere fact of a lie is a threat to your existence.

    I don't know exactly what word to use to describe this characteristic of yours, which is why I mentioned "autism," but perhaps you yourself have some insight on this?

    You see, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of lies are tiny and irrelevant "sins" often born of necessity, and there are much worse things people do.

    Indeed, much of becoming an adult is learning to lie and be fake and to have a mask. Not in your most intimate relationships, and hopefully never to yourself, but lying is essential and so certainly not a sin in its essence.

    In fact, most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you're not. That makes you atypical.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel

  467. that they will not use them if pushed against a corner

    How can they be pushed to the corner if all that we constantly keep hearing from them at the highest level about operation is it going strictly according to plan with previously set timetables and objectives will be reached? There is no corner, they are faring just fine as intended 😉

  468. @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    AP just matched a forum culture here, where most people seemed obsessed about essentialist views about nationalities, often as way to boost their ego by attaching themselves to these labels.

    You will not not receive “agree” for comments, here if you explain that this model doesn’t explain history, or that you want to understand North/South Korea.

    AP and JackD are similar, not as “propagandists”, but because they are successful American paterfamilias, from the same political culture of North-Eastern bourgeoisie, both with a lot of amour-propre.

    At the same time, their amour-propre is attached persecuted nationalities, with unstable self-determination. They are also in forum with a lot of Jewish conspiracy (for JackD) and kremlinbot (for AP) users, which for some strange reason they feel they need to argue with.

    AP himself has adopted a lot of kremlinbot frameworks, which creates a lot of the cultural dissonance compared to talking to Ukrainian netizens. Whereas JackD’s real cultural similarity to the Sailer forum, is genuine, that he is racist against African Americans.

  469. A123 says: • Website
    @Mikel
    @sudden death


    space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice
     
    Of all the readily available choices with a growing level of support from the public and politicians (see eg Kizinger's proposal), it definitely is the worst one.

    AK probably doesn't realize how unattractive his triunist crusade is for anyone who is not Russian or Russian-adjacent. But reading some comments here I have the impression that Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainians may have a similar problem. They don't seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    As an example, the day of the first civilian evacuations from Azovstal the BBC's headline for their worldwide audience was that 'some civilians had managed to escape, in spite of Putin declaring that not one fly would get out'. You had to go well into the body of the article to discover that those civilians were actually in Russian hands (in fact, I remember that Putin himself had offered them to evacuate unharmed in his speech).

    Any reader with a short attention span would easily conclude that the Russians had been trying to kill those civilians, that the Azov soldiers that share their last holdout with civilians do so to protect them and that some innocent people had somehow escaped from the Russians.

    The end effect of this sort of reporting, whether purposeful or not, is that more and more people see this war as a conflict between absolute evil against innocent virtuosity and that "we must do something" to stop the Russians, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves.

    The Russians, along with murderous shelling of civilian areas, have certainly shown poor strategy and serious limitations in their conventional forces but their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations. I remember how a few years ago, when they first used their Kalibr missiles in Syria, the Pentagon doubted that they could reach their targets. I see zero reason to expect that the Russian nuclear missiles will not work as intended and that they will not use them if pushed against a corner.

    Replies: @A123, @Triteleia Laxa

    They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    A few pro-Ukraine posters, like AP, likely see the problem. However, there is little they can do about it.

    their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations.

    The problem is quantity. Russia is consuming far faster than they can manufacture and replace. The primary reason why RF has not ended fright rail in Ukraine is they cannot. They simply do not have enough precision long range firepower to achieve that goal.

    The RF retains heavy reliance on “tubes” (a.k.a. artillery). It’s messy, but it can work if they are willing to grind the target in a less precise and closer range manner.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.
     
    Yeah, like my own postings here showing how spurious your stances are regarding the water issue disputes between Russia and Ukraine within Crimea. That my own opinions line up very closely with those of European courts that have looked into these matters, and have found no evidence of any unfair play, seems to mean nothing to an airhead like you that only seems concerned with your own opinions, and resorts to ad hominins when confronting commenters that post opinions that differ from your own. Oh "boo hoo, how disgusting".
  470. @German_reader
    @Dmitry


    For example, Germany is building for both sides of the Greece/Turkey navy arms race
     
    Yeah, that's pretty cynical and wrong. I would only sell to Greece.
    Don't have much to add, since I don't know that much about weapons systems and their details. Found this article interesting though:
    https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporting-ukraine-for-the-long-war-2/
    They call for a coordinated effort to supply Ukraine with a few types, so issues with spare parts and logistics are minimized. Also suggestions that Ukraine could get MiGs from Egypt.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Germany’s policy was cynical, but seems rational from a point of view of self-interest of the local industrialists and workers they employ, while also allowing for less public expenditure in this area for the taxpayers.

    If Germany was implausibly, feeling threat of landwar from Russia. Well, you can always sell more weapons to Poland. And there are American bases there.

    So, why does Germany, need a land army?

    At the same time, Germany has a quite modernized aerial force, that would probably exceed any local threat (e.g. Russia), even without help from Poland (that is buying the most advanced F-16). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Dmitry

    West Germany could have built enough tanks and artillery to defeat Brezhnev's peak USSR. Germany did not really believe the Soviets had any such intention. Remember that the tactical nuclear weapon battleground would have been West Germany. Austria didn't believe it either, they were of the West but not in Nato.

    Currently and assuming Russia's teenage peasant conscripts are equivalent to trained professionals, Putin would be outnumbered 4:1 against Nato, so they actually have one twelfth of what they would need to sucessfuly attack.

    All the deterring Putin from attacking a Nato country stuff is bringing up what they know won't happen to obscure that they are not going to actually fight Russia over Ukraine.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  471. German_reader says:

    Projection (from 2019) how a nuclear war between NATO and Russia could play out:

    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    Projection (from 1983) on how a NATO Russia nuclear war would play out.

    PEACE 😇

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOHEU7Ykyg

    Replies: @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    Russian state TV recently released CGI footage of their new wunderwaffe nuclear tsunami torpedo, wiping Ireland and Britain totally clean with radioactive seawater.

    I'm no expert on thermonuclear physics or wave propagation, but I must say I feel pretty skeptical that one torpedo could do that.

    It would be funny if they made a companion video for their new Satan-II missile, calculated to mess with the brains of progressives, where they launch one missile towards France, and then the 12 warheads detach, and it cuts to a series of captioned shots of French cities filled with blacks, Arabs, and trannies that suddenly vanish, and as the light fades, transition to urban scenes filled with normal French people, with young children. All the while ominous music plays.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon

  472. @German_reader
    @Beckow


    It is probably still the same just lurking under the surface, see the SS grandkids in the German government
     
    Is that a reference to this bs photomontage showing Scholz and other German politicians together with vaguely similar looking SS members (with vaguely similar names, like "von Scholz" instead of Scholz)?
    Do you really have to believe even the dumbest Russian propaganda? Doesn't speak well of your critical faculties.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Barbarossa

    It’s really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as “Literal Hitler” at some point by someone.

    Really it’s almost a slight to not be called a Nazi or Literal Hitler. Any person of consequence should strive for it, I guess, so that they know they have really made it in life.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Barbarossa

    Technically Beckow is of course correct, NSDAP had 8 million members by 1945 (including relatives of mine), so any German government is likely to contain "Nazi offspring".
    Pretty ridiculous though to claim that Scholz and his like have an SS mentality, imo Beckow is just once again spouting recycled Soviet propaganda where Nazi Germany and NATO are somehow almost the same thing. No use arguing against that.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @A123
    @Barbarossa


    It’s really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as “Literal Hitler” at some point by someone.
     
    Once the other side "goes there", what purpose is served by restraint? It simply gives the other side the rhetorical upper hand.

    I have no difficulty accurately labeling SJW/DNC members "Nazi-crats". Their gun grabbing ways and Lügenpresse (a.k.a. Fake Stream Media) are straight out of WWII era German history.

    PEACE 😇
  473. @A123
    @Mikel


    They don’t seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.
     
    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    A few pro-Ukraine posters, like AP, likely see the problem. However, there is little they can do about it.

    their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations.
     
    The problem is quantity. Russia is consuming far faster than they can manufacture and replace. The primary reason why RF has not ended fright rail in Ukraine is they cannot. They simply do not have enough precision long range firepower to achieve that goal.

    The RF retains heavy reliance on "tubes" (a.k.a. artillery). It's messy, but it can work if they are willing to grind the target in a less precise and closer range manner.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    And how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda posted here is to us. The hypocrisy from the Ukie Maximalists is a guaranteed losing proposition hut they do it anyway.

    Yeah, like my own postings here showing how spurious your stances are regarding the water issue disputes between Russia and Ukraine within Crimea. That my own opinions line up very closely with those of European courts that have looked into these matters, and have found no evidence of any unfair play, seems to mean nothing to an airhead like you that only seems concerned with your own opinions, and resorts to ad hominins when confronting commenters that post opinions that differ from your own. Oh “boo hoo, how disgusting”.

  474. German_reader says:
    @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    It's really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as "Literal Hitler" at some point by someone.

    Really it's almost a slight to not be called a Nazi or Literal Hitler. Any person of consequence should strive for it, I guess, so that they know they have really made it in life.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

    Technically Beckow is of course correct, NSDAP had 8 million members by 1945 (including relatives of mine), so any German government is likely to contain “Nazi offspring”.
    Pretty ridiculous though to claim that Scholz and his like have an SS mentality, imo Beckow is just once again spouting recycled Soviet propaganda where Nazi Germany and NATO are somehow almost the same thing. No use arguing against that.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    There is a wonderful-in-spots book by Joseph Farrell where he compares the EU vision statement (~ 2013 or so--it was up-to-date when he wrote the book) with the 1942 German plan for Europe point-by-point. There is virtually no difference.

  475. @Mikel
    @sudden death


    space alien invasions or comet/asteroid strikes, so the coming world war might not even be the worst possible choice
     
    Of all the readily available choices with a growing level of support from the public and politicians (see eg Kizinger's proposal), it definitely is the worst one.

    AK probably doesn't realize how unattractive his triunist crusade is for anyone who is not Russian or Russian-adjacent. But reading some comments here I have the impression that Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainians may have a similar problem. They don't seem to realize how disgusting the pro-Ukrainian propaganda in the MSM also is for many of us.

    As an example, the day of the first civilian evacuations from Azovstal the BBC's headline for their worldwide audience was that 'some civilians had managed to escape, in spite of Putin declaring that not one fly would get out'. You had to go well into the body of the article to discover that those civilians were actually in Russian hands (in fact, I remember that Putin himself had offered them to evacuate unharmed in his speech).

    Any reader with a short attention span would easily conclude that the Russians had been trying to kill those civilians, that the Azov soldiers that share their last holdout with civilians do so to protect them and that some innocent people had somehow escaped from the Russians.

    The end effect of this sort of reporting, whether purposeful or not, is that more and more people see this war as a conflict between absolute evil against innocent virtuosity and that "we must do something" to stop the Russians, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves.

    The Russians, along with murderous shelling of civilian areas, have certainly shown poor strategy and serious limitations in their conventional forces but their cruise and ballistic missiles are functioning with great precision, contrary to some expectations. I remember how a few years ago, when they first used their Kalibr missiles in Syria, the Pentagon doubted that they could reach their targets. I see zero reason to expect that the Russian nuclear missiles will not work as intended and that they will not use them if pushed against a corner.

    Replies: @A123, @Triteleia Laxa

    I don’t mean this unkindly, but are you perhaps somewhat autistic? As in generally diagnosable with some level of autism?

    You seem to be able to recognise facts, but not really understand why other people assign different levels of importance to them. As if everything true is of equal criticality.

    This also seems to apply conversely, with lies, for you. You find lies outrageous and take them personally, regardless of the context or what the liar is contending with. As if the mere fact of a lie is a threat to your existence.

    I don’t know exactly what word to use to describe this characteristic of yours, which is why I mentioned “autism,” but perhaps you yourself have some insight on this?

    You see, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of lies are tiny and irrelevant “sins” often born of necessity, and there are much worse things people do.

    Indeed, much of becoming an adult is learning to lie and be fake and to have a mask. Not in your most intimate relationships, and hopefully never to yourself, but lying is essential and so certainly not a sin in its essence.

    In fact, most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you’re not. That makes you atypical.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Why are you always resorting to psychobabble? It's irritating and just taking up space, not contributing anything interesting.
    Mikel is afraid of nuclear war, and that fear is totally legitimate. The real question is, why do so many people nowadays (in stark contrast to the Cold War era) feel the need to pretend that there is no reason to be afraid and that the risk of nuclear war is no big deal and shouldn't factor into one's calculations?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    , @Mikel
    @Triteleia Laxa


    ... most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you’re not. That makes you atypical...
     
    Well, perhaps sudden_death is right and there are worse things than nuclear war per se. Such as ending up sharing a nuclear refuge with you in its aftermath.
  476. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mikel

    I don't mean this unkindly, but are you perhaps somewhat autistic? As in generally diagnosable with some level of autism?

    You seem to be able to recognise facts, but not really understand why other people assign different levels of importance to them. As if everything true is of equal criticality.

    This also seems to apply conversely, with lies, for you. You find lies outrageous and take them personally, regardless of the context or what the liar is contending with. As if the mere fact of a lie is a threat to your existence.

    I don't know exactly what word to use to describe this characteristic of yours, which is why I mentioned "autism," but perhaps you yourself have some insight on this?

    You see, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of lies are tiny and irrelevant "sins" often born of necessity, and there are much worse things people do.

    Indeed, much of becoming an adult is learning to lie and be fake and to have a mask. Not in your most intimate relationships, and hopefully never to yourself, but lying is essential and so certainly not a sin in its essence.

    In fact, most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you're not. That makes you atypical.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel

    Why are you always resorting to psychobabble? It’s irritating and just taking up space, not contributing anything interesting.
    Mikel is afraid of nuclear war, and that fear is totally legitimate. The real question is, why do so many people nowadays (in stark contrast to the Cold War era) feel the need to pretend that there is no reason to be afraid and that the risk of nuclear war is no big deal and shouldn’t factor into one’s calculations?

    • Agree: Yevardian, Mikel, A123
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader

    They don't pretend that. They just go beyond the doormat's dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it; which means such passivity is increasing the future risk of nuclear conflict, not diminishing it.

    Be less stupid.

    When you're too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you're too stupid for me even to bother.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    My charitable view is that TL has partaken of the couch, thoroughly enjoyed it, and, believing Unz filled with eccentrics, wants to pass the psychobabble forward, to try to "normalize" and "heal" us, as she herself has been "healed", or is being "healed."

    Trouble is, she, for all her professed knowledge, does not recognize basic sex differences in psychology, and assumes that males are just as neurotic as her narrow social milieu of highly-neurotic, cosmopolitan women.

    I think she would benefit from quitting the couch and joining a traditional church, or, as the case may be (depending on which side she favors), temple.

  477. @German_reader
    @Barbarossa

    Technically Beckow is of course correct, NSDAP had 8 million members by 1945 (including relatives of mine), so any German government is likely to contain "Nazi offspring".
    Pretty ridiculous though to claim that Scholz and his like have an SS mentality, imo Beckow is just once again spouting recycled Soviet propaganda where Nazi Germany and NATO are somehow almost the same thing. No use arguing against that.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    There is a wonderful-in-spots book by Joseph Farrell where he compares the EU vision statement (~ 2013 or so–it was up-to-date when he wrote the book) with the 1942 German plan for Europe point-by-point. There is virtually no difference.

  478. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mikel

    I don't mean this unkindly, but are you perhaps somewhat autistic? As in generally diagnosable with some level of autism?

    You seem to be able to recognise facts, but not really understand why other people assign different levels of importance to them. As if everything true is of equal criticality.

    This also seems to apply conversely, with lies, for you. You find lies outrageous and take them personally, regardless of the context or what the liar is contending with. As if the mere fact of a lie is a threat to your existence.

    I don't know exactly what word to use to describe this characteristic of yours, which is why I mentioned "autism," but perhaps you yourself have some insight on this?

    You see, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of lies are tiny and irrelevant "sins" often born of necessity, and there are much worse things people do.

    Indeed, much of becoming an adult is learning to lie and be fake and to have a mask. Not in your most intimate relationships, and hopefully never to yourself, but lying is essential and so certainly not a sin in its essence.

    In fact, most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you're not. That makes you atypical.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Mikel

    … most people who perform outrage over it are lying themselves, or self-deceiving, but it seems that you’re not. That makes you atypical…

    Well, perhaps sudden_death is right and there are worse things than nuclear war per se. Such as ending up sharing a nuclear refuge with you in its aftermath.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  479. Sean says:
    @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    Germany's policy was cynical, but seems rational from a point of view of self-interest of the local industrialists and workers they employ, while also allowing for less public expenditure in this area for the taxpayers.

    If Germany was implausibly, feeling threat of landwar from Russia. Well, you can always sell more weapons to Poland. And there are American bases there.

    So, why does Germany, need a land army?

    At the same time, Germany has a quite modernized aerial force, that would probably exceed any local threat (e.g. Russia), even without help from Poland (that is buying the most advanced F-16). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    Replies: @Sean

    West Germany could have built enough tanks and artillery to defeat Brezhnev’s peak USSR. Germany did not really believe the Soviets had any such intention. Remember that the tactical nuclear weapon battleground would have been West Germany. Austria didn’t believe it either, they were of the West but not in Nato.

    Currently and assuming Russia’s teenage peasant conscripts are equivalent to trained professionals, Putin would be outnumbered 4:1 against Nato, so they actually have one twelfth of what they would need to sucessfuly attack.

    All the deterring Putin from attacking a Nato country stuff is bringing up what they know won’t happen to obscure that they are not going to actually fight Russia over Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Sean

    Germany is planning to re-invest in the military now, although it will be even less necessary than before.

    It seems like a lot of money is going for their aerospace forces.

    Lockheed Martin maybe the largest group to benefit, if Germany will buy F-35 planes that is produced by this company.*


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B4njJatAhA

    -

    *
    It's cynical to see how immediately after February 24 investors seemed to be expecting more business opportunity for Lockheed Martin.
    https://i.imgur.com/uquxlS2.jpg

    Replies: @Sean

  480. S says:

    Taking a page from Edward Bernays, the best and purest propaganda is ever so subtly inserted into an entertaining movie, such that the viewer is not even aware they’ve been propagandized. This was according to former CBS newscaster Elmer Davis, who from June, 1942 thru Sept, 1945, would run the US Office of Wartime Information (OWI).

    Being that they are slavishly copying just about everything pre-WWII, we should expect that they will also (at least for a while) copy many things post Dec 7 from WWII as well, once WWIII has commenced.

    We will likely see something like the OWI again, and they may well call it by that very same name.

    OWI Color Photograph of an American Infantryman (1942) – Ft Knox

    ‘The easiest way to inject a propaganda idea into most people’s minds is to let it go through the medium of an entertainment picture [ie movie] when they do not realize that they are being propagandized.’— Elmer Davis, as qtd. in Hollywood Goes to War

    President Franklin D. Roosevelt promulgated the OWI (Office of Wartime Information) on June 13, 1942, by Executive Order 9182. The Executive Order consolidated the functions of the Office of Facts and Figures (OFF, OWI’s direct predecessor), the Office of Government Reports, and the Division of Information of the Office for Emergency Management. The Foreign Information Service, a division of the Office of the Coordinator of Information, became the core of the Overseas Branch of the OWI.

    At the onset of World War II, the American public was in the dark regarding wartime information. One American observer noted: “It all seemed to boil down to three bitter complaints…first, that there was too much information; second, that there wasn’t enough of it; and third, that in any event it was confusing and inconsistent”. Further, the American public confessed a lack of understanding as to why the world was at war, and held great resentment against other Allied Nations. President Roosevelt established the OWI to both meet the demands for news and less confusion, as well as resolve American apathy towards the war.

    Below are some additional original color OWI photographs, typically from 1942:

  481. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Why are you always resorting to psychobabble? It's irritating and just taking up space, not contributing anything interesting.
    Mikel is afraid of nuclear war, and that fear is totally legitimate. The real question is, why do so many people nowadays (in stark contrast to the Cold War era) feel the need to pretend that there is no reason to be afraid and that the risk of nuclear war is no big deal and shouldn't factor into one's calculations?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    They don’t pretend that. They just go beyond the doormat’s dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it; which means such passivity is increasing the future risk of nuclear conflict, not diminishing it.

    Be less stupid.

    When you’re too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you’re too stupid for me even to bother.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    They just go beyond the doormat’s dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it
     
    False alternatives. I have never argued that one should just let Russia gobble up Ukraine. But there's a spectrum of responses. A lot of Westerners, unfortunately including policy-makers, are whipping themelves into a frenzy based on nothing but moral outrage and are arguing that anything but total victory over Russia would be unacceptable. This is dramatically raising the stakes and a serious mistake imo.
    I don't really object to helping to kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but it can't be a goal in itself, one must be aware of the risks of escalation and at least try to keep the possibility of a negotiated end to the war open.

    When you’re too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you’re too stupid for me even to bother.

     

    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Good god almighty. You are the one suggesting that the BAE m777 Howitzer outranges the Russian SP guns. 25m range v 70m in respectively.

    The m777 is good because it is very light weight. So a Marine or Parachute unit can have organic artillery.

    It's not as powerful as the Russian fleet of Self Propelled guns. You invalidate yourself with your wild claims on war gear.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  482. @AP
    @Beckow


    The drinking part must be a joke: nobody outdrinks a Galician (or a Pole)
     
    Poles and Galicians may outdrink Slovaks but they can’t be compared to Russians. I knew a Galician engineer who worked in Siberia and he was shocked at how much Russians drink. An uncle for around Kiev did military service in central Russia and was likewise amazed. It’s a different level.

    Data match these anecdotes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_alcohol_consumption_per_capita

    Poles slightly less alcohol consumers than Russians (Slovaks beat both) but this is because of beer culture in Poland, Russians get there with vodka or homemade hard liquor. Ukraine which lacks beer culture had 1/4 the ETOH consumption rate of Russia n 1996, still 20% in 2016 (Ukrainian consumers discovered beer and wine more).

    Shots of vodka per month:

    https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-who-consume-the-most-vodka.html

    Russia at number one with 17.3, Poland in second place with 13.7, Ukrainians in third place with 10. Then Bulgaria 5.3 and Slovakia 4.1. Finland, the champion of Scandinavia, is only in 8th place with 3.2.

    So Russians on average drink about twice as much vodka as do Ukrainians.

    Difference in drinking severity is a divider between Russians and Ukrainians, as anyone who has spent time in both countries would know. People who claim there is no difference are just demonstrating ignorance.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Yevardian

    You are sidetracking the issue. Alcohol consumption, whatever the truthm is rather irrelevant vis-a-vis propensity to commit warcrimes. I also noticed on this topic how Beckow suddenly became informative again, when talking about Slovakia, when you filter through the Sovok-educated rhetoric.
    Just look at recent events in Syria or Iraq, hardly places known for being hard-drinking. Which reminds me, I also knew people who experienced the Lebanese civil war, or whose parents did, there are quite a few loose parallels there and events in Ukraine now. Syria always saw Lebanon as a ‘rebel province’, and, quite legitimately, saw ‘Lebanese’ as a totally artificial French-created construct, indistinguishable from Syrians, aside from the Maronite core (not dissimilar to Galicians). Syria intervened in the Lebanese Civil War on several occasions, promising to ‘rescue’ alternatively the Christians or the Muslims from one another.

    You also had the same ‘narcissism of small differences’ in spades, with extremely vicious sectarian militias variously inspired by incoherent mixtures of fascism, communism, ethno-nationalism and religious millennarianism. You had groups like ‘Guardians of the Cedars’ calling themselves ‘Phoenician’, claiming not to understand ‘Arabic’, seizing on dialectal differences, minor Aramaic substrate and heavy French influence in claiming to speak ‘Lebanese’, which allowed people in their mental space to see their own neighbors as foreigners, and so on.
    Though I don’t claim Svidomism is as bad (yet), if the war drags on I can easily see this sort of thing becoming more common, small lies naturally lead on to big lies once the former is accepted. It always begins as harmless ‘white-lies’ but eventually the same framework allows creation of necessary mental space for ordinary people to justify their own atrocities.

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII. Country-averaged statistics (lies, damned lies…) are practically meaningless in the context of a mass-mobilised army, perhaps I can be corrected here, but hardly as if the USSR meticulously separated divisions according to nationality, soldiers from every background would generally be pressed into the culture of their division, in wartime far more so. National homogenisation is one of the main purposes of the army anywhere, I do not buy this racialist BS about majority of warcrimes being done by Buryats (how many could there even be?) or whatever.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of ‘Dedovschina‘ (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening. Of course any conflict between two armies coming from this same military culture will be extremely brutal and nasty for this reason alone. In the same sense, I can’t dismiss claims of ‘false flags’ as people with a personal axe to grind like Ritter getting creative, Ukraine afterall became independent after an unholy alliance between nationalist agitators and the local Soviet Security Apparatus, always considered among the most conservative and bloody-minded of any ‘Republic’ within the USSR.

    Hopefully one day Ukrainians will be mature enough to examine their own past, even Իզրաիլ [will the resident bot process meaning via deixis?] eventually produced the ‘New Historians’ who deconstructed founding mythos of that country, though as I understand it their school curriculum (and especially self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth foundation fantasy.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Yevardian


    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII.
     
    They've always been less violent and less prone to drink on average; this probably wouldn't change in the army. Hell, Donbas was treated much more humanely than Chechnya.

    This is objective. And Poles were historically kinder and more gentle than Ukrainians, even though they were sometimes wrong. Also objective truth.


    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of ‘Dedovschina‘ (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening.
     
    Ukraine has a volunteer military where since 2014 many people have joined out of sincere patriotic reasons rather than because, as in Russia, they are too poor or stupid to do anything else. Ukrainian units are more independent with stronger NCOs. Russian and Ukrainian militaries diverged after 2014-2015, they were similar before that time.
    , @Wokechoke
    @Yevardian

    Every army does this to the recruits, it’s also a way to drive out screw ups.

    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth
     
    I don't remember remember saying it is David vs Goliath, but as I wrote before the war, a homeless man with HIV, murdering a heroin addicted one-legged homeless woman with syphilis, on the bottom of the postsoviet trash can of history. Border war is what would least benefit the peoples of the region (aside from those thousands killed and injured directly, there is loss of economic opportunity and public investment for tens of millions of citizens), but I expect even failed invasion will help the politicians increase their control in the society due to the culture change and international isolation.
  483. A123 says: • Website
    @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    It's really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as "Literal Hitler" at some point by someone.

    Really it's almost a slight to not be called a Nazi or Literal Hitler. Any person of consequence should strive for it, I guess, so that they know they have really made it in life.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123

    It’s really amusing how everyone is accused of being the true Nazi now. We should all just embrace our fate as being labeled as “Literal Hitler” at some point by someone.

    Once the other side “goes there”, what purpose is served by restraint? It simply gives the other side the rhetorical upper hand.

    I have no difficulty accurately labeling SJW/DNC members “Nazi-crats”. Their gun grabbing ways and Lügenpresse (a.k.a. Fake Stream Media) are straight out of WWII era German history.

    PEACE 😇

  484. @German_reader
    Projection (from 2019) how a nuclear war between NATO and Russia could play out:
    https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo

    Replies: @A123, @songbird

    Projection (from 1983) on how a NATO Russia nuclear war would play out.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    @A123

    A NATO / Russian war is playing out right now. No projection required.

  485. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Why are you always resorting to psychobabble? It's irritating and just taking up space, not contributing anything interesting.
    Mikel is afraid of nuclear war, and that fear is totally legitimate. The real question is, why do so many people nowadays (in stark contrast to the Cold War era) feel the need to pretend that there is no reason to be afraid and that the risk of nuclear war is no big deal and shouldn't factor into one's calculations?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @songbird

    My charitable view is that TL has partaken of the couch, thoroughly enjoyed it, and, believing Unz filled with eccentrics, wants to pass the psychobabble forward, to try to “normalize” and “heal” us, as she herself has been “healed”, or is being “healed.”

    Trouble is, she, for all her professed knowledge, does not recognize basic sex differences in psychology, and assumes that males are just as neurotic as her narrow social milieu of highly-neurotic, cosmopolitan women.

    I think she would benefit from quitting the couch and joining a traditional church, or, as the case may be (depending on which side she favors), temple.

  486. @German_reader
    Projection (from 2019) how a nuclear war between NATO and Russia could play out:
    https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo

    Replies: @A123, @songbird

    Russian state TV recently released CGI footage of their new wunderwaffe nuclear tsunami torpedo, wiping Ireland and Britain totally clean with radioactive seawater.

    I’m no expert on thermonuclear physics or wave propagation, but I must say I feel pretty skeptical that one torpedo could do that.

    It would be funny if they made a companion video for their new Satan-II missile, calculated to mess with the brains of progressives, where they launch one missile towards France, and then the 12 warheads detach, and it cuts to a series of captioned shots of French cities filled with blacks, Arabs, and trannies that suddenly vanish, and as the light fades, transition to urban scenes filled with normal French people, with young children. All the while ominous music plays.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn't like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first...well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @A123, @songbird, @Dmitry

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Did you read what I said about Russian TV showing Western European capitalism being in nuclear range? Putin indeed has realized the quickest way to start archeofuturism in Western Europe is Nuclear Orthodoxy, and that includes the end to ethnomasochism (which is what the Nouvelle Droit calls mass 3rd world immigration/Great Replacement) by the radioactive purge of largely migrant-filled Banlieues.

    Also, sinking the source of 250 years of global destruction and an increasingly Pajeet-filled place (aka the British Isles) under the waves. Not a leap of logic to suggest using nuclear mines to change plate tectonics and implode the Ring of Fire + Yellowstone, and Russia could start hiring geologists to investigate war plans like that, the way bluffing goes.

    Replies: @songbird

  487. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader

    They don't pretend that. They just go beyond the doormat's dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it; which means such passivity is increasing the future risk of nuclear conflict, not diminishing it.

    Be less stupid.

    When you're too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you're too stupid for me even to bother.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

    They just go beyond the doormat’s dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it

    False alternatives. I have never argued that one should just let Russia gobble up Ukraine. But there’s a spectrum of responses. A lot of Westerners, unfortunately including policy-makers, are whipping themelves into a frenzy based on nothing but moral outrage and are arguing that anything but total victory over Russia would be unacceptable. This is dramatically raising the stakes and a serious mistake imo.
    I don’t really object to helping to kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but it can’t be a goal in itself, one must be aware of the risks of escalation and at least try to keep the possibility of a negotiated end to the war open.

    When you’re too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you’re too stupid for me even to bother.

    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader


    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.
     
    No, you actually seemed reasonably well balanced, so there was no low hanging fruit, but since you feel left out and want a pointer or two, please read on.

    The Western response to the invasion of Ukraine has been far from hysterical. Indeed, given the context, it can only be rationally seen as incremental, measured and extremely calm.

    Instead, your response to the Western response is the source of the hysteria you perceive. Not just your hysteria in how you interpret what you are looking at, but also which parts of the Western response you are attracted to focussing on. You seek out a hysteria that reflects your own suppressed hysteria and don't even recognise it.

    This is because, by denying the image of the hysterical feminine in yourself, you end up constantly unconsciously drawn to it. Trying to find a lost piece of yourself.

    And since you don't even know why you are doing this, nevermind that you are doing this, this then leads you to confirm your biases and your unbalanced ideology and leaves you feeling trapped and alienated, and somehow both constricted and outside of things, all at the same time.

    The answer is to own your own hysterical response and see the very measured and incremental programme of gradually increasing sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, maintained in the face of an invasion of a sovereign European country and the flattening of her cities and creation of 6 million refugees in 2 months and the direct nuclear threats from Russian State media organs, as truly from the adults in the room.

    No Western power has directly intervened and Russia has not even been forced into a default. Everything was broadcast and telegraphed and not delivered as a last minute surpise.

    So while Russian assets have been frozen, they have not yet been spent, and weaponry that could have a strategic effect on the true Russian homeland has not yet been gifted.

    You may not agree with these decisions, but they have been thoughtful and considered.

    Instead, it is the sources you have sought out to bask in your own hidden hysteria that have been hysterical, even though they are irrelevant, and your interpretation of it all has made it only more so.

    Now what should actually be interesting and meaningful for you, would be if you sat down and reflected on the many ways in which this mechanism has affected your personal life so far. It won't be easy, but the reward at the end of such reflection will be worth it. I promise.

    Replies: @German_reader

  488. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @German_reader

    Russian state TV recently released CGI footage of their new wunderwaffe nuclear tsunami torpedo, wiping Ireland and Britain totally clean with radioactive seawater.

    I'm no expert on thermonuclear physics or wave propagation, but I must say I feel pretty skeptical that one torpedo could do that.

    It would be funny if they made a companion video for their new Satan-II missile, calculated to mess with the brains of progressives, where they launch one missile towards France, and then the 12 warheads detach, and it cuts to a series of captioned shots of French cities filled with blacks, Arabs, and trannies that suddenly vanish, and as the light fades, transition to urban scenes filled with normal French people, with young children. All the while ominous music plays.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn’t like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first…well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first
     
    I'm inclined to believe it's a desperate bluff, spurred on after the dramatic Russian blunders in the opening stage of the war, perception of Russia's conventional military threat was dramatically reduced. I don't think a temperamentally cautious personality like Putin would make such gestures unless he felt Russia's strategic position was in truly dire straights.

    All rather unfortunate, he's truly trashed his legacy of stabilising the country after 90s. It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind. A Russian military coup so that operations are conducted properly is very far off yet (internal prestige of Russian army, is in fact, now very low), but for the first time ever, I'm seeing it as a distant possibility. There must be many officers thinking like Strelkov staying silent for the moment.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Ron Unz

    , @A123
    @German_reader


    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that?
     
    The nuclear threats are 100% rational and reasonable.... Once you break the code.

    It is all about Poland. And, avoiding an accidental nuclear war.

    NATO is a "defense" treaty, Poland is not covered if they participate in combat outside their borders. Making sure that Poland's leaders have total understanding that Warsaw will be nuked immediately after Polish regular military units enter Ukraine should head off the most dangerous stupid concepts.

    In case Stupid Cannot Be Stopped -- NATO will be pre-warned, on-notice, and have sane contingency planning at the top of the pile. Nuking Warsaw will not spread if Poland insists on total stupidity and starts the Darwin Award Offensive of 2022.

    PEACE 😇
    , @songbird
    @German_reader


    None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that?
     
    If you are going to nuclear saber-rattle, IMO, it makes sense to do it earlier, rather than later. By doing it earlier, you can potentially cause people to deviate from escalatory measures, calming the situation or keeping it from getting close to DEFCON 1.

    In this case, I think the Russians are looking to discourage the supply of more big weapons and possibly military intervention by the Poles, which could easily turn into direct military conflict with America.

    It all seems very ham-fisted, but Russia has lost nearly all the traditional prestige it had, when it was the USSR. Their military doesn't look super-impressive. Their space program is starting to look sort of rusty, compared to what SpaceX is doing, even if NASA itself is a shitshow for the money. All they really have left is nukes. And these new ones seem calculated to have a psychological effect.

    I find myself oddly sympathetic. It would be scary to be gazing across from the other side and seeing Rachel Levine, George Floyd, the successors of John McCain, doddering Biden. The strange ideologies of the West. I remember seeing some pretty dark stuff about Russians on the web like seven years ago, and it had pretty clear racial undertones.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    These nuclear threats are often in those television programmes every year, for decades. They say can nuclear Paris or New Zealand, etc. They say they can conquer Sweden in ten minutes. Or that they have developed special weapons that will sink California.

    You can expect it as a kind of joke host feed to cattle that can still remember when they lived in a superpower, and who need distraction from their lives.

    Maybe, perhaps there is still danger that you can believe your own propaganda, however crazy it seems, like an actor who has to work in the theatre every night, and might finally not be able to separate his dramatic role from reality.

    Although it begins as a joke, after time, a part of Putin's brain perhaps really believes that he has a superpower, with local industry, happy villagers grateful for his kindness, modern army, etc, even while another part of his brain knows his circle are responsible for creating these fictions, and that most of the people he meets are professional actors.

    For example in the victory day parade, in 2020, at 58:56 you can see the "T-14 Armata" tank. In the turret, it is metal sheets with pins - i.e. it is a mock vehicle.

    But still, every year, they parade "T-14 Armata" tank, and everyone pretends it is already a real tank. It's possible they don't explain to Putin are showing a mock concept vehicle each year. After all, Putin has shown video scenes from computer games to journalists and said it was the Russian army fighting in Syria. Although he also must know that much of this is based in fictions, as he helped designing some of them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y5HurvGouc

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  489. @AP
    @utu


    He makes arguments regardless of their validity and shamelessness factor: remember his Ukrainian Red Army soldiers in Berlin 1945
     
    You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians, even though the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians. The rapists were often described as drunk, and it is well known that Ukrainians drink much less than do Russians (before beer became widely popular, per capita ETOH consumption was about 4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine).

    The 8th guards army occupied Berlin, where a huge number of rapes occurred. It consisted of units formed in the Urals, the Volga, Voronezh,

    (you can check the links for individual units here. Origins for most but not all are provided, none of the ones with identified origins were from Ukraine, and very few of the leader surnames were Ukrainian, Makarenko was a rare one: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army)

    ::::::::::

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.


    Here he uses the disparaging term “anglos”
     
    Is it disparaging? Didn't know that. So in your opinion this article's headline is a slur?

    https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/anglo-hispano-cultures-clash-ultimately-blend/article_f2390c4e-42f8-11ec-a73c-f7ff92ef2c72.html

    "Anglo, Hispano cultures clash, ultimately blend"


    He attempts to tune and tailor his arguments to the interlocutor prejudices and biases
     
    I speak of German events with Germans rather than with, say, Irish because they may understand them better. Your negative interpretation of my actions is a function of your paranoia. Paranoia is, of course, projected aggression. You are a very angry and hostile person, though this can be overlooked because you are also informative and entertaining.

    But I am consistent. I opposed the Iraq invasion and I oppose this one because I am against invasions (though this is not absolute - in rare cases such as Nazi Germany or the demon-worshipping Aztec empire invasion was necessary).

    Replies: @AP, @utu, @Mikhail

    Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically. I know the homicide rate in Russia just dipped below the Ukrainian for the first time but that is an aberration.

    You betray your Polish origins (this, that was done to Poles, was the worst thing ever) with your comments about Ukrainian violence. What occurred in Volyn was horrible but not representative of Ukrainians and not transferable to Germans. And it was far from the worst thing that happened during World War II. And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime I will once again note that there is never any justification for slaughtering women and children or civilian men. Yet because all are crimes and all are evil, does not mean that all are equally evil.

    Bigoted horseshit on your part – the kind accepted in Sorosian circles. BTW, there’re numeropus Jews who’d think the opposite.

  490. S says:
    @songbird
    I wonder if Éamon de Valera could be considered an early version of Leo Varadkar.

    Obviously, very loose analogy. De Valera was not gay, not a PoC, and was a nationalist. In many ways, the comparison would be considered an insult, and probably cause de Valera to turn in his grave.

    But there are certain similarities. Both had a father born outside of Ireland. Though, I doubt Varadkar is even half Irish. Did de Valera became a consensus candidate based on his foreign-sounding name? Just like Varadkar was chosen by inner-party politics.

    Replies: @S

    I wonder if Éamon de Valera could be considered an early version of Leo Varadkar.

    I don’t know. Some question just how Irish he really was. De Valera seemed to live forever. 🙂

    I know some Irish think it odd and ‘convenient’ he was spared execution in 1916 (unlike so many other native born and more purely Irish) due purportedly to his American birth. They thought he may have been a ‘deep plant’ of some type to control or interfere with a newly purportedly free Ireland.

    I don’t blame them for their concerns.

    • LOL: songbird
  491. @sudden death
    Abrupt chaos ensuing as targets and motives for "denazification" are widening ;)

    JERUSALEM, May 2 (Reuters) - Israel lambasted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday for claiming that Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins, saying it was an "unforgivable" falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.

    In a signal of sharply deteriorating relations with Moscow, the Israeli foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an apology.

    "Such lies are intended to accuse the Jews themselves of the most horrific crimes in history that were committed against them," Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

    "The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people for political purposes must stop immediately," he added.

    Lavrov made the assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to "denazify" Ukraine if the country's own president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was himself Jewish.

    "When they say 'What sort of nazification is this if we are Jews', well I think that Hitler also had Jewish origins, so it means nothing," Lavrov told Rete 4 channel, speaking through an Italian interpreter.

    "For a long time now we've been hearing the wise Jewish people say that the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves," he added.

    Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel's memorial to the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust, said the Russian minister's remarks were "an insult and a severe blow to the victims of the real Nazism".

    Speaking on Kan radio, Dayan said Lavrov was spreading "an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory with no basis in fact".

    The identity of one of Hitler's grandfathers is not known but there has been some speculation, never backed up by any evidence, that he might have been a Jew.

    There was no immediate response for comment from the Russian embassy to Israel or from Lavrov in Moscow.

    Kyiv condemned Lavrov's words, saying his "heinous remarks" were offensive to Zelenskiy, to Israel, Ukraine and Jews.

    "More broadly, they demonstrate that today’s Russia is full of hatred towards other nations," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

    Israeli Foreign Ministry Yair Lapid, whose grandfather died in the Holocaust, said that accusing Jews of being anti-Semites was "the basest level of racism". He also dismissed Lavrov's assertion that pro-Nazi elements held sway over the Ukrainian government and military.

    "The Ukrainians aren't Nazis. Only the Nazis were Nazis and only they dealt with the systematic destruction of the Jewish people," Lapid told the YNet news website.

    A German government spokesperson said the idea Hitler had Jewish heritage was "absurd" propaganda. read more

    Israel has expressed repeated support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of straining relations with Russia, a powerbroker in neighbouring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

    However, relations have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

    However, the Ukrainian president has also run into flak in Israel by looking to draw analogies between the conflict in his country and World War Two. In an address to the Israeli parliament in March, Zelenskiy compared the Russian offensive in Ukraine to Nazi Germany's plan to murder all Jews within its reach during World War Two. read more

    Yad Vashem called his comments "irresponsible," saying they trivialised the historical facts of the Holocaust.
     

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-denounces-lavrovs-hitler-comments-summons-russian-ambassador-2022-05-02/?utm_source=reddit.com

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Mikhail

    Gross distortions. I’ll have more on this in a short bit.

  492. @German_reader
    @songbird

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn't like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first...well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @A123, @songbird, @Dmitry

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first

    I’m inclined to believe it’s a desperate bluff, spurred on after the dramatic Russian blunders in the opening stage of the war, perception of Russia’s conventional military threat was dramatically reduced. I don’t think a temperamentally cautious personality like Putin would make such gestures unless he felt Russia’s strategic position was in truly dire straights.

    All rather unfortunate, he’s truly trashed his legacy of stabilising the country after 90s. It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind. A Russian military coup so that operations are conducted properly is very far off yet (internal prestige of Russian army, is in fact, now very low), but for the first time ever, I’m seeing it as a distant possibility. There must be many officers thinking like Strelkov staying silent for the moment.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    I’m inclined to believe it’s a desperate bluff
     
    That kind of threat is only going to enrage a large part of the Western public even more. Talked to my father about it and he thought this creep Kiselyov should be assassinated in response.
    , @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind.
     
    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn't it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?

    The American leaders making such threats haven't been top officials, but surely those aren't the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.

    And don't forget the public calls for Putin's assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?

    Replies: @A123, @Yevardian

  493. AP says:
    @utu
    @AP


    "You shamelessly claimed, with no evidence, that 1/3 of the crimes committed by Soviet soldiers in Germany were committed by Ukrainians"
     
    I made a mistake. At that time I did not know that Red Army was 40% Ukrainian in 1945. So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW's including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity. My position is that no reasonable argument exists to think otherwise that cruel and criminal behavior differed among the ethnic groups. My position is that the determining factor was the prevailing institutional culture in the Red Army and permissiveness and even encouragement by officers for such behaviors once the Red Army entered the territory of the III Reich.

    Your argument that "the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians" is just another of your primitive lies that you have just concocted. I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages and it is obvious that Germans could not distinguish between ethnic Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians so even if there was such a study only Asian vs. non-Asian ethnicity could have been resolved. So if indeed Asian ethnic groups were more responsible for atrocities and rapes, which I doubt, it would reduce culpability of Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians equally.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war. The argument is on the level of IQist fanatic from Karlin camp who could claim that lower Ukrainian IQ (citation to IQist literature) would predict higher rate of cruelty and rapes (citation to scientific literature) by Ukrainians.

    "Ukrainians are simply, on average, kinder and gentler people than Russians and have been so historically." - This could be only an infantile fantasy but since you are not a child but a savvy propagandist this is just another shameless attempt of creating propaganda lie which neither you nor anybody else except for children in kindergartens in Ukraine could possibly believe. I have written about this infantilism (which in your case is not infantilism but a pack of propagandistic lies) before:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-184-russia-ukraine/#comment-5294629
    Yervadian, suggested that this kind of superiority over Russians is a delusion that he cherishes or in other words of Luke from NT: “for of the abundance of his heart his mouth speaketh.” But I have problem believing it that intelligent, educated and not that young person would be still in the grip of “idealized parental imago” that compensates the loss of narcissistic perfection of a child. Parental because idealization formation with respect to one’s ethnic group is of similar nature and usually affect less intelligent, less educated and more primitive people.
     
    The "kinder and gentler than Russians" people ("and have been so historically") apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century. The leaders behind those massacres Khmelnytsky and Bandera are national heros of Ukrain. Toying with the Satanic forces and building them altars might not be too prudent.

    The Volhynia and East Galicia massacres during WWII were committed by Western Ukrainians who supposedly drink less and were supposedly more educated or so you would claim than those more Russian Ukrainians in the Eastern Ukraine. It is an interesting fact that the Red Army drafted Volhynians at 60% higher rate than in other regions of Ukraine:

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%). - Wiki
     
    Could somebody ill disposed to Ukrainians propose a counter hypothesis to yours that those Volhynians in Red Army who were still dripping with blood of Poles they murdered and with fresh memories of rapes they committed on Polish women would be more disposed to murder and rape civilians in Germany and that it is them who infected the whole Red Army with the virus of violence and criminality? As a meme this hypothesis could get traction that Ukrainians are especially responsible for atrocities against civilians in Germany. But I am not pushing it because it is just as silly hypothesis w/o zero evidence just as your hypothesis that Ukrainians were behaving better than Russians in Germany for which there zero evidence.

    "And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime " - I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable. However I won't search for it now among your comments.

    Anyway, I am not happy with you. Not happy at all. I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Yevardian, @Beckow, @Dmitry, @AP

    So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW’s including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity.

    You were in a hole, and chose to dig deeper.

    The 40% figure is important if those 40% were evenly distributed among Soviet forces in Germany at the time of the rapes and mass murders. Were they? The victims themselves identified their attackers as “Russians” and “Mongols.” Might they have assumed Ukrainians were Russians? Probably to some extent, but enough to miss 40% of attackers? Doubtful.

    Some parts of Poland were also subject to rape by Soviet soldiers. Poles would be better than Germans at differentiating Russians from Ukrainians. Guess what? They described their Soviet attackers as Russians, not as Ukrainians:

    https://magazyn.wp.pl/ksiazki/artykul/zbrodnia-w-borucinie-zmurszala-pamiec

    But now let’s look at the units in Germany at the time of the rapes. I posted a link. You conveniently ignored it. It didn’t support your lies about the decent Ukrainians.

    Berlin was captured by the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army

    Not every unit’s origin is listed, but those that are listed show origins in Russia: Urals (Russians, some Bashkirs or Tatars), Volga (Russians, some Tatars), Voronezh (Russians), Transbaikal (Russians and Buryats).

    Here is the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Group_of_Soviet_Forces_in_Germany

    1. First Tank Army, formed on the basis of the 29th Tank army that had been created in the Moscow military district (Russians)
    2. 2nd Guards Tank Army – units created in Tambov (Russians) and Kiev (Ukrainians)
    3. 4th Guards Tank Army – units created in Urals (Russians and Bashkirs), Perm (Russians)
    4. 2nd Shock Army – units created in northern Russia, Urals
    5. 3rd Shock army – units came from Central Asia, Urals
    6. 8th Guards Army (see above) – Russians and some Buryats

    Mostly Russians and “Mongolians”

    Your argument that “the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians” is just another of your primitive lies

    Retract this lie. Here are victims describing Mongol attackers:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=mmPklXqPHGwC&pg=PA60&lpg#v=onepage&q&f=false

    I looked through several google books about this. Once a Ukrainian attacker was mentioned, but otherwise it was Russians or Mongols.

    I’m not going to go further into this, but your claim that 40% of attackers were ethnic Ukrainians was a lie.

    I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages

    I haven’t seen this but it can be inferred from witness statements and units present at the time of the crimes.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war

    And why would it not? You think there is no correlation between peacetime drinking and wartime drinking? Russians drink nearly twice the amount of hard liquor as Ukrainians. You think in times of war Russians would start to drink less and Ukrainians drink more?

    Interestingly enough, during this war the Russians troops are often drunk and the Ukrainian ones are typically sober.

    Indeed, what Russians had done in occupied Ukraine is very similar to what Russians had been doing in Germany after the war. Getting drunk, raping, robbing and killing local civilians. Elderly Ukrainians living in the outskirts of Kiev and Kharkiv have stated that the Russian troops treated them much worse than had the German soldiers (obviously the German administration was horrible but the regular German soldiers were less indecent than Russians in terms of treatment of civilians).

    The “kinder and gentler than Russians” people (“and have been so historically”) apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century

    In the 20th century, Ukrainians killed far fewer civilians than did Germans, Russians, Americans, Brits, Croats, Turks, and various Balkanoids (among Europeans). Poles have cleaner hands than do Ukrainians of course, but Ukrainians are kinder and gentler than Russians.

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%

    Population of Volynia was small so higher relative % does not translate into many troops. and unreliable Volynians (Volynia was infested with Banderists) weren’t going to get sent to the front in large numbers.

    And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime ” – I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable.

    Your recollection was mistaken. Retract it or be a liar.

    I stated that it was wrong and inexcusable, but that it was less inexcusable than larger scale killings because the Ukrainians were fighting for national survival on their own lands. The Brits and Americans who had incinerated far more German civilians than Ukrainians killed Poles were under no threat of German invasion and occupation when this was done. In contrast, Poles were claiming those lands and had even planned to ethnically cleanse them of Ukrainians (through deportations not killings), before the Ukrainians preemptively began the mass killings. I will emphasize again that this is not a justification to murder women, children and other civilians.

    This is what the Poles of Galicia and Volynia had planned before their people were getting killed:

    “Having perceived Ukrainian collaboration with the Soviet government in 1939–1941 and then with the Germans, the local Poles generally thought that Ukrainians ought to be removed from the territories. In July 1942 a memorandum by the staff of the Home Army in Lviv in July 1942 recommended that between 1 million and 1.5 million Ukrainians to be deported from Galicia and Volhynia to the Soviet Union and the rest scattered throughout Poland.[58][59] Suggestions of limited Ukrainian autonomy, as was being discussed by the Home Army in Warsaw and the Polish government-in-exile in London, found no support among the local Poles.”

    That line is not about your lies.

    I have made mistakes but have never lied here. Unlike you, sadly.

    :::::::::::::

    I am not a Ukrainian nationalist, I like A-H and the PLC better (at least, before Khmelnytsky’s treason). But a Ukrainian nation state is better than being stuck in a Polish nationalist or a Russian nationalist one. And the Polish nationalist Dmowski (never married, rumored to be a homosexual blackmailed by the Russians) whose ruinous policies destroyed what was left of the PLC legacy was himself partially responsible for the evil that that was unleashed.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @AP

    It's highly likely that the rapey Russians were in fact Mongol, Turkic.

    fits the Ghengis stereotype.

    The British incinerated city after city but not so much on the rape side of things. The English are Exterminating Angels.

    But there's a case that Ukraine quickly capitulated to the Germans and made the war a lot worse by doing that in the long run. It confirms the Nazi stereotype. This is not a criticism, but it's clear that the Ukies were pro Nazi. Barbarossa succeeded partly because Ukies favored the invasion.

    Replies: @AP

  494. AP says:
    @Yevardian
    @AP

    You are sidetracking the issue. Alcohol consumption, whatever the truthm is rather irrelevant vis-a-vis propensity to commit warcrimes. I also noticed on this topic how Beckow suddenly became informative again, when talking about Slovakia, when you filter through the Sovok-educated rhetoric.
    Just look at recent events in Syria or Iraq, hardly places known for being hard-drinking. Which reminds me, I also knew people who experienced the Lebanese civil war, or whose parents did, there are quite a few loose parallels there and events in Ukraine now. Syria always saw Lebanon as a 'rebel province', and, quite legitimately, saw 'Lebanese' as a totally artificial French-created construct, indistinguishable from Syrians, aside from the Maronite core (not dissimilar to Galicians). Syria intervened in the Lebanese Civil War on several occasions, promising to 'rescue' alternatively the Christians or the Muslims from one another.

    You also had the same 'narcissism of small differences' in spades, with extremely vicious sectarian militias variously inspired by incoherent mixtures of fascism, communism, ethno-nationalism and religious millennarianism. You had groups like 'Guardians of the Cedars' calling themselves 'Phoenician', claiming not to understand 'Arabic', seizing on dialectal differences, minor Aramaic substrate and heavy French influence in claiming to speak 'Lebanese', which allowed people in their mental space to see their own neighbors as foreigners, and so on.
    Though I don't claim Svidomism is as bad (yet), if the war drags on I can easily see this sort of thing becoming more common, small lies naturally lead on to big lies once the former is accepted. It always begins as harmless 'white-lies' but eventually the same framework allows creation of necessary mental space for ordinary people to justify their own atrocities.

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII. Country-averaged statistics (lies, damned lies...) are practically meaningless in the context of a mass-mobilised army, perhaps I can be corrected here, but hardly as if the USSR meticulously separated divisions according to nationality, soldiers from every background would generally be pressed into the culture of their division, in wartime far more so. National homogenisation is one of the main purposes of the army anywhere, I do not buy this racialist BS about majority of warcrimes being done by Buryats (how many could there even be?) or whatever.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of 'Dedovschina' (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening. Of course any conflict between two armies coming from this same military culture will be extremely brutal and nasty for this reason alone. In the same sense, I can't dismiss claims of 'false flags' as people with a personal axe to grind like Ritter getting creative, Ukraine afterall became independent after an unholy alliance between nationalist agitators and the local Soviet Security Apparatus, always considered among the most conservative and bloody-minded of any 'Republic' within the USSR.

    Hopefully one day Ukrainians will be mature enough to examine their own past, even Իզրաիլ [will the resident bot process meaning via deixis?] eventually produced the 'New Historians' who deconstructed founding mythos of that country, though as I understand it their school curriculum (and especially self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth foundation fantasy.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII.

    They’ve always been less violent and less prone to drink on average; this probably wouldn’t change in the army. Hell, Donbas was treated much more humanely than Chechnya.

    This is objective. And Poles were historically kinder and more gentle than Ukrainians, even though they were sometimes wrong. Also objective truth.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of ‘Dedovschina‘ (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening.

    Ukraine has a volunteer military where since 2014 many people have joined out of sincere patriotic reasons rather than because, as in Russia, they are too poor or stupid to do anything else. Ukrainian units are more independent with stronger NCOs. Russian and Ukrainian militaries diverged after 2014-2015, they were similar before that time.

  495. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first
     
    I'm inclined to believe it's a desperate bluff, spurred on after the dramatic Russian blunders in the opening stage of the war, perception of Russia's conventional military threat was dramatically reduced. I don't think a temperamentally cautious personality like Putin would make such gestures unless he felt Russia's strategic position was in truly dire straights.

    All rather unfortunate, he's truly trashed his legacy of stabilising the country after 90s. It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind. A Russian military coup so that operations are conducted properly is very far off yet (internal prestige of Russian army, is in fact, now very low), but for the first time ever, I'm seeing it as a distant possibility. There must be many officers thinking like Strelkov staying silent for the moment.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Ron Unz

    I’m inclined to believe it’s a desperate bluff

    That kind of threat is only going to enrage a large part of the Western public even more. Talked to my father about it and he thought this creep Kiselyov should be assassinated in response.

  496. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @songbird

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn't like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first...well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @A123, @songbird, @Dmitry

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that?

    The nuclear threats are 100% rational and reasonable…. Once you break the code.

    It is all about Poland. And, avoiding an accidental nuclear war.

    NATO is a “defense” treaty, Poland is not covered if they participate in combat outside their borders. Making sure that Poland’s leaders have total understanding that Warsaw will be nuked immediately after Polish regular military units enter Ukraine should head off the most dangerous stupid concepts.

    In case Stupid Cannot Be Stopped — NATO will be pre-warned, on-notice, and have sane contingency planning at the top of the pile. Nuking Warsaw will not spread if Poland insists on total stupidity and starts the Darwin Award Offensive of 2022.

    PEACE 😇

  497. A123 says: • Website

    Q: Noam Chomsky says nice things about Donald Trump?
    A: True

    Noam Chomsky: Trump the ‘One Western Statesman of Stature’ Pushing Peace in Ukraine

    Famed leftist MIT professor Noam Chomsky has credited former President Donald Trump for being one of the few prominent statesmen in the West actively pushing for peace in Ukraine as opposed to escalating war with Russia.

    Though Chomsky called the former president a dangerous figure for a host of reasons during a recent virtual interview, he did admit that Trump has proposed practical, peaceful solutions to ending the war in Ukraine.

    Noam Chomsky recently drew the establishment left’s ire when he suggested that Western powers should move to deescalate the conflict and “move towards a negotiated settlement.”

    “What is the best thing to do to save Ukraine from a grim fate, from further destruction? And that’s to move towards a negotiated settlement,” he told Jeremy Scahill. “There are some simple facts that aren’t really controversial. There are two ways for a war to end: One way is for one side or the other to be basically destroyed. And the Russians are not going to be destroyed. So that means,

        •1• “One way is for Ukraine to be destroyed.”
        •2• “The other way is some negotiated settlement,” he added.
        •3• “If there’s a third way, no one’s ever figured it out.”

    So what we should be doing is devoting all the things you mentioned, if properly shaped, but primarily moving towards a possible negotiated settlement that will save Ukrainians from further disaster. That should be the prime focus.”

    [[[Note: Formatting changed for clarity]]]

    There is a real reversion to historical normality taking place. The GOP is once again the Peace Party. The DNC has reclaimed its undisputed mantle as the War Party. The extreme “Nazi” Samantha Power (∆∆) has returned. (2)

    Power is the archetype ideological traveler within the academic peer group of the Obama team. Former U.N. Ambassador Power is the person who takes the ideological theory [example Responsibility to Protect (R2P)], and then constructs the mechanisms and network to turn theory into applicable policy.

    Samantha Power, now in charge of USAID (U.S. Aid and International Development) and a host of Non-Governmental Agencies (NGO’s) who rely on USAID, turns her meddling focus from the middle-east toward the crisis in Ukraine.

    Notice how she says weird shit like, [02:53] “what we do Margaret, is to work though our implementing partners. So, er, we have, um, folks who are indirectly on the ground, but who are receiving U.S. taxpayer resources in order to provide everything from flak jackets and helmets, again to those safehouses etc.”

    How does a person become “indirectly on the ground” in Ukraine, in order to receive funds?

    Discussing Ukraine Power let it slip that the absence of industrial fertilizer is a good thing because in the spirit of “never letting a crisis go to waste,” the transition of food growing to more “sustainable farming” through organic fertilizer is a key transition for the bigger picture issue of Climate Change.

    Video of the Samantha Power, modern day reinvention of Leni Riefenstahl, is below. Open [MORE] if you can stand more than the 30 second highlight.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆∆) @GR & — Can I call Samantha Power a Nazi? It is such a good fit it needs to be said.

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/01/noam-chomsky-trump-one-western-statesman-stature-pushing-peace-ukraine/

    (2) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/01/sunday-talks-samantha-power-notes-scarce-food-presents-opportunity-to-enhance-larger-goals-of-climate-change-and-other-weird-stuff/

     


    Video Link

    [MORE]

  498. @German_reader
    @songbird

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn't like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first...well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @A123, @songbird, @Dmitry

    None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that?

    If you are going to nuclear saber-rattle, IMO, it makes sense to do it earlier, rather than later. By doing it earlier, you can potentially cause people to deviate from escalatory measures, calming the situation or keeping it from getting close to DEFCON 1.

    [MORE]

    In this case, I think the Russians are looking to discourage the supply of more big weapons and possibly military intervention by the Poles, which could easily turn into direct military conflict with America.

    It all seems very ham-fisted, but Russia has lost nearly all the traditional prestige it had, when it was the USSR. Their military doesn’t look super-impressive. Their space program is starting to look sort of rusty, compared to what SpaceX is doing, even if NASA itself is a shitshow for the money. All they really have left is nukes. And these new ones seem calculated to have a psychological effect.

    I find myself oddly sympathetic. It would be scary to be gazing across from the other side and seeing Rachel Levine, George Floyd, the successors of John McCain, doddering Biden. The strange ideologies of the West. I remember seeing some pretty dark stuff about Russians on the web like seven years ago, and it had pretty clear racial undertones.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    This is why many aren't hoping Russia to win and Ukraine to lose, but for the US to be crushed. The world outside of Europe and Anglo countries, the true believers, has enough of liberal capitalism

  499. @Yevardian
    @AP

    You are sidetracking the issue. Alcohol consumption, whatever the truthm is rather irrelevant vis-a-vis propensity to commit warcrimes. I also noticed on this topic how Beckow suddenly became informative again, when talking about Slovakia, when you filter through the Sovok-educated rhetoric.
    Just look at recent events in Syria or Iraq, hardly places known for being hard-drinking. Which reminds me, I also knew people who experienced the Lebanese civil war, or whose parents did, there are quite a few loose parallels there and events in Ukraine now. Syria always saw Lebanon as a 'rebel province', and, quite legitimately, saw 'Lebanese' as a totally artificial French-created construct, indistinguishable from Syrians, aside from the Maronite core (not dissimilar to Galicians). Syria intervened in the Lebanese Civil War on several occasions, promising to 'rescue' alternatively the Christians or the Muslims from one another.

    You also had the same 'narcissism of small differences' in spades, with extremely vicious sectarian militias variously inspired by incoherent mixtures of fascism, communism, ethno-nationalism and religious millennarianism. You had groups like 'Guardians of the Cedars' calling themselves 'Phoenician', claiming not to understand 'Arabic', seizing on dialectal differences, minor Aramaic substrate and heavy French influence in claiming to speak 'Lebanese', which allowed people in their mental space to see their own neighbors as foreigners, and so on.
    Though I don't claim Svidomism is as bad (yet), if the war drags on I can easily see this sort of thing becoming more common, small lies naturally lead on to big lies once the former is accepted. It always begins as harmless 'white-lies' but eventually the same framework allows creation of necessary mental space for ordinary people to justify their own atrocities.

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII. Country-averaged statistics (lies, damned lies...) are practically meaningless in the context of a mass-mobilised army, perhaps I can be corrected here, but hardly as if the USSR meticulously separated divisions according to nationality, soldiers from every background would generally be pressed into the culture of their division, in wartime far more so. National homogenisation is one of the main purposes of the army anywhere, I do not buy this racialist BS about majority of warcrimes being done by Buryats (how many could there even be?) or whatever.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of 'Dedovschina' (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening. Of course any conflict between two armies coming from this same military culture will be extremely brutal and nasty for this reason alone. In the same sense, I can't dismiss claims of 'false flags' as people with a personal axe to grind like Ritter getting creative, Ukraine afterall became independent after an unholy alliance between nationalist agitators and the local Soviet Security Apparatus, always considered among the most conservative and bloody-minded of any 'Republic' within the USSR.

    Hopefully one day Ukrainians will be mature enough to examine their own past, even Իզրաիլ [will the resident bot process meaning via deixis?] eventually produced the 'New Historians' who deconstructed founding mythos of that country, though as I understand it their school curriculum (and especially self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth foundation fantasy.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

    Every army does this to the recruits, it’s also a way to drive out screw ups.

  500. @German_reader
    @songbird

    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that? this isn't like it was in the Cold War, Russia is conventionally the weaker side now. Only sounds plausible, if you think that NATO forces are just repainted SS and want to physically exterminate Russians just for fun). And if they nuked Western Europe first...well, they might get away with Berlin, since Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own. But Britain and France do, so in that case it would be bye bye Moscow and St Petersburg. The Russians who entertain such fantasies are seriously unhinged or have a death wish.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @A123, @songbird, @Dmitry

    These nuclear threats are often in those television programmes every year, for decades. They say can nuclear Paris or New Zealand, etc. They say they can conquer Sweden in ten minutes. Or that they have developed special weapons that will sink California.

    You can expect it as a kind of joke host feed to cattle that can still remember when they lived in a superpower, and who need distraction from their lives.

    Maybe, perhaps there is still danger that you can believe your own propaganda, however crazy it seems, like an actor who has to work in the theatre every night, and might finally not be able to separate his dramatic role from reality.

    Although it begins as a joke, after time, a part of Putin’s brain perhaps really believes that he has a superpower, with local industry, happy villagers grateful for his kindness, modern army, etc, even while another part of his brain knows his circle are responsible for creating these fictions, and that most of the people he meets are professional actors.

    For example in the victory day parade, in 2020, at 58:56 you can see the “T-14 Armata” tank. In the turret, it is metal sheets with pins – i.e. it is a mock vehicle.

    But still, every year, they parade “T-14 Armata” tank, and everyone pretends it is already a real tank. It’s possible they don’t explain to Putin are showing a mock concept vehicle each year. After all, Putin has shown video scenes from computer games to journalists and said it was the Russian army fighting in Syria. Although he also must know that much of this is based in fictions, as he helped designing some of them.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Dmitry

    Such paranoia about nuclear strikes in the US were part of the Johnson v Goldwater election, Blast From The Past or Red Dawn were real to many Americans. The BBC regularly ran shows depicting the 10 minutes the UK had before being glassed. The bunkers you'd have to live in. Dr Strangelove wasnt about an actual Nuclear War it was about the hysteria about nuclear war. Raymond Briggs did a Nuclear Snowman called When the Wind Blows. God only knows how the Germans experienced the prospect of a tactical nuke in Kassel.

    Western cunts have taken the spectacle of self annihilation to be an experience of the highest aesthetic order.

    Replies: @songbird

  501. @Yevardian
    @AP

    You are sidetracking the issue. Alcohol consumption, whatever the truthm is rather irrelevant vis-a-vis propensity to commit warcrimes. I also noticed on this topic how Beckow suddenly became informative again, when talking about Slovakia, when you filter through the Sovok-educated rhetoric.
    Just look at recent events in Syria or Iraq, hardly places known for being hard-drinking. Which reminds me, I also knew people who experienced the Lebanese civil war, or whose parents did, there are quite a few loose parallels there and events in Ukraine now. Syria always saw Lebanon as a 'rebel province', and, quite legitimately, saw 'Lebanese' as a totally artificial French-created construct, indistinguishable from Syrians, aside from the Maronite core (not dissimilar to Galicians). Syria intervened in the Lebanese Civil War on several occasions, promising to 'rescue' alternatively the Christians or the Muslims from one another.

    You also had the same 'narcissism of small differences' in spades, with extremely vicious sectarian militias variously inspired by incoherent mixtures of fascism, communism, ethno-nationalism and religious millennarianism. You had groups like 'Guardians of the Cedars' calling themselves 'Phoenician', claiming not to understand 'Arabic', seizing on dialectal differences, minor Aramaic substrate and heavy French influence in claiming to speak 'Lebanese', which allowed people in their mental space to see their own neighbors as foreigners, and so on.
    Though I don't claim Svidomism is as bad (yet), if the war drags on I can easily see this sort of thing becoming more common, small lies naturally lead on to big lies once the former is accepted. It always begins as harmless 'white-lies' but eventually the same framework allows creation of necessary mental space for ordinary people to justify their own atrocities.

    But back on the original point, I see no reason whatsoever to believe ethnic Ukrainians (however defined) were any more humane or better-behaved than ethnic Russians in WWII. Country-averaged statistics (lies, damned lies...) are practically meaningless in the context of a mass-mobilised army, perhaps I can be corrected here, but hardly as if the USSR meticulously separated divisions according to nationality, soldiers from every background would generally be pressed into the culture of their division, in wartime far more so. National homogenisation is one of the main purposes of the army anywhere, I do not buy this racialist BS about majority of warcrimes being done by Buryats (how many could there even be?) or whatever.

    Finally the USSR and all post-Soviet nations (maybe excepting Baltics, at least Estonia) still have toxic military culture of 'Dedovschina' (extreme hazing, etc.), certainly it still exists in Armenia, and I have no reason to believe it magically vanished from Ukraine after the beautiful and peaceful Maiden Revolution for universal prosperity, democracy, gay rights and national reawakening. Of course any conflict between two armies coming from this same military culture will be extremely brutal and nasty for this reason alone. In the same sense, I can't dismiss claims of 'false flags' as people with a personal axe to grind like Ritter getting creative, Ukraine afterall became independent after an unholy alliance between nationalist agitators and the local Soviet Security Apparatus, always considered among the most conservative and bloody-minded of any 'Republic' within the USSR.

    Hopefully one day Ukrainians will be mature enough to examine their own past, even Իզրաիլ [will the resident bot process meaning via deixis?] eventually produced the 'New Historians' who deconstructed founding mythos of that country, though as I understand it their school curriculum (and especially self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth foundation fantasy.

    Replies: @AP, @Wokechoke, @Dmitry

    self-appointed diaspora fanbase, see Dmitri) still clings to the Δαυἱd-vs-Gołiαth

    I don’t remember remember saying it is David vs Goliath, but as I wrote before the war, a homeless man with HIV, murdering a heroin addicted one-legged homeless woman with syphilis, on the bottom of the postsoviet trash can of history. Border war is what would least benefit the peoples of the region (aside from those thousands killed and injured directly, there is loss of economic opportunity and public investment for tens of millions of citizens), but I expect even failed invasion will help the politicians increase their control in the society due to the culture change and international isolation.

  502. @Sean
    @Dmitry

    West Germany could have built enough tanks and artillery to defeat Brezhnev's peak USSR. Germany did not really believe the Soviets had any such intention. Remember that the tactical nuclear weapon battleground would have been West Germany. Austria didn't believe it either, they were of the West but not in Nato.

    Currently and assuming Russia's teenage peasant conscripts are equivalent to trained professionals, Putin would be outnumbered 4:1 against Nato, so they actually have one twelfth of what they would need to sucessfuly attack.

    All the deterring Putin from attacking a Nato country stuff is bringing up what they know won't happen to obscure that they are not going to actually fight Russia over Ukraine.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Germany is planning to re-invest in the military now, although it will be even less necessary than before.

    It seems like a lot of money is going for their aerospace forces.

    Lockheed Martin maybe the largest group to benefit, if Germany will buy F-35 planes that is produced by this company.*

    *
    It’s cynical to see how immediately after February 24 investors seemed to be expecting more business opportunity for Lockheed Martin.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Dmitry


    Germany is planning to re-invest in the military now
     
    The 47 billion that America has earmarked for aid to Ukraine ins not even coming out of the defense Budget. Germany tried to get the money it had spent integrating the invited Syrian and other refugees. Germany is an inveterate defence freeloader, that shells out on rescuing EU single currency because it is an export promotion program for the benefit of Germany's manufactures.


    Germany will buy F-35 planes
     
    The Russian army is basically a defensive army that assumes it will have to cope with enemy air superiority, and consequently has a a lot of anti aircraft missiles. One reason the US Air Force does not want to fly in Ukraine is worry that with the oppertunity the Russians would solve technical problems and then might show up the F35 (really an air combat fight) very vulnerable when flying even stand off ground attack missions.
  503. @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader

    They don't pretend that. They just go beyond the doormat's dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it; which means such passivity is increasing the future risk of nuclear conflict, not diminishing it.

    Be less stupid.

    When you're too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you're too stupid for me even to bother.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Wokechoke

    Good god almighty. You are the one suggesting that the BAE m777 Howitzer outranges the Russian SP guns. 25m range v 70m in respectively.

    The m777 is good because it is very light weight. So a Marine or Parachute unit can have organic artillery.

    It’s not as powerful as the Russian fleet of Self Propelled guns. You invalidate yourself with your wild claims on war gear.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Wokechoke


    m777
     
    It is light, but requires some more labor - 8 soldiers to use it. Whereas self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000, only 3 (although with months of training), or Msta-5 requires 5.


    On another side, Military History Visualized argues that this towing artillery is more useful as you can interchange vehicles. unlike self-propelled which depend on reliability of the single chassis. Also he argues that it is more labor intensive howitzers, potentially reliable than automated systems, easier for mechanics. https://youtu.be/F_DS6UvZXPo?t=709.

  504. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is now in the East where they were in the North in mid-March.

    Meanwhile, they are already in full retreat from Kharkhiv to their own border.

    And Western artillery is not online yet. It outranges Russian artillery and should be finally deployed in the East perhaps tomorrow.

    Russian casualties and defeats are about to skyrocket. Their only option is to withdraw. Even a tactical nuke won't save them. Its use would sever even China's tepid friendship. And the West would be forced to escalate to de-escalate itself. Any other response would legitimise the use of nuclear weapons in the 21st Century. I suggest they would be best served by telling Russia that they would bomb every Russian asset within the sovereign borders of Ukraine in 48 hours for 2 weeks as retaliation. There is no response that Russia could have, that they would not have already sunk to. It would be check mate and would force their immediate withdrawal, but in total disgrace.

    Much more sensible they just leave now. Or desperately try and sign a deal for the pre-war borders via referendum. They can probably forget about "no NATO' though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Mr. Hack

    The artillery being sent to Ukraine is not going to outrange the Russian SP guns. the m777 has a range of around 25k.

    The SP guns the Russians deploy commonly range between 50-70k.

    You are out of your mind.

  505. @songbird
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    It's about Russia's Pacific fleet.

    Japan can control the egress of its own navy because it has both a Pacific-facing coast, as well as since it controls a longitudinal chain of islands, in temperate waters that don't freeze, so it controls all the passage ways.

    In Russia's case, it's in more northern latitudes, so ice is a significant problem. Passage between the southern Kurils is ice-free or mostly ice-free. (And they can be defended with anti-ship missiles) Not true of the northern ones. Maybe, they could proceed along the coast of Asia southward, but the US controls all the chokepoints.

    I can't really think of an alternative, from a military standpoint.

    It's fun to think about possible deals though. Seems to me that from a Japanese perspective, it is kind of a national touchstone, so that is pretty valuable, and maybe they could turn it to their advantage somehow.

    Like, it is a fantastic scenario, but what if Russia demanded that Japan increase its TFR to replacement. (which would be Japan benefiting, but that could be a way to help organize it as a national goal - they would have to give something valuable back though.)

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Some historical background on this–

    Slavinsky suggests that Stalin’s agreement with Churchill and Roosevelt to attack Japan after Germany’s surrender allowed him to keep Japan in the war until he was ready to attack and thus avenge Russia’s defeat in the war of 1904-1905.

    Slavinsky draws on recently opened Russian archival material to demonstrate that the Soviet Union was passing information about the Allies to Japan during the Second World War. He also persuasively argues that vengeance and the (re)acquistion of land were the primary motives for the attack on Japan.

    https://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Soviet-Neutrality-Pact-Diplomatic-1941-1945/dp/0415322928

    If you go back farther, prima facie its hard to justify Japan being the instigator of enmity. After all, Russo-Japanese War took place in Japan’s backyard, Manchuria and Korea, not Russia’s.

    It’s common misunderstood, but Japan’s national seclusion, Sakoku 鎖国, “locked country” was ended by equally the West and Russia. The earliest incidence being 文化露寇 Bunka rokō “Bunka Russian Invasion” (1806), or Khvostov Incident:

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Инцидент_Хвостова

    The Perry Expedition wasn’t until 1853.

    Anyways, it appears that Russia promptly cut off Kurile Island talks pursuant to the Ukraine War.

    increase its TFR
    Same as I was saying to TF, Japan like China is way overpopulated, while Russia Far East is less than 10 mln.

    • Thanks: sudden death, songbird
    • Replies: @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Great historical pic from Japanese(?) Wiki, which quite luminously illustrates how earlier Russian gunboat diplomacy started than Western one in Far East:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Rezanov_and_his_ship.jpg

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

  506. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird

    Some historical background on this--


    Slavinsky suggests that Stalin's agreement with Churchill and Roosevelt to attack Japan after Germany's surrender allowed him to keep Japan in the war until he was ready to attack and thus avenge Russia's defeat in the war of 1904-1905.

    Slavinsky draws on recently opened Russian archival material to demonstrate that the Soviet Union was passing information about the Allies to Japan during the Second World War. He also persuasively argues that vengeance and the (re)acquistion of land were the primary motives for the attack on Japan.
     

    https://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Soviet-Neutrality-Pact-Diplomatic-1941-1945/dp/0415322928

    If you go back farther, prima facie its hard to justify Japan being the instigator of enmity. After all, Russo-Japanese War took place in Japan's backyard, Manchuria and Korea, not Russia's.

    It's common misunderstood, but Japan's national seclusion, Sakoku 鎖国, "locked country" was ended by equally the West and Russia. The earliest incidence being 文化露寇 Bunka rokō "Bunka Russian Invasion" (1806), or Khvostov Incident:

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Инцидент_Хвостова

    The Perry Expedition wasn't until 1853.

    Anyways, it appears that Russia promptly cut off Kurile Island talks pursuant to the Ukraine War.

    increase its TFR
    Same as I was saying to TF, Japan like China is way overpopulated, while Russia Far East is less than 10 mln.

    Replies: @sudden death

    Great historical pic from Japanese(?) Wiki, which quite luminously illustrates how earlier Russian gunboat diplomacy started than Western one in Far East:

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @sudden death

    Yes, the scribing is in Japanese kanji and is about the distance of trip the Russians made. Here is another one (not only the height but head size diffreential!):
    https://i.postimg.cc/c4VYgN2J/Vasily-Golovnin-taken-prisoner.jpg
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golovnin_Incident

    In meantime a conceptual sketch by Japanese media of 北海道决战 "Hokkaidō Decisive Battle" 80,000 RF vs. 30,000 Japan--
    https://i.postimg.cc/gJJrtMQ5/f423e7893cfe536901fb8e55d08ebbbe.jpg

  507. @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    These nuclear threats are often in those television programmes every year, for decades. They say can nuclear Paris or New Zealand, etc. They say they can conquer Sweden in ten minutes. Or that they have developed special weapons that will sink California.

    You can expect it as a kind of joke host feed to cattle that can still remember when they lived in a superpower, and who need distraction from their lives.

    Maybe, perhaps there is still danger that you can believe your own propaganda, however crazy it seems, like an actor who has to work in the theatre every night, and might finally not be able to separate his dramatic role from reality.

    Although it begins as a joke, after time, a part of Putin's brain perhaps really believes that he has a superpower, with local industry, happy villagers grateful for his kindness, modern army, etc, even while another part of his brain knows his circle are responsible for creating these fictions, and that most of the people he meets are professional actors.

    For example in the victory day parade, in 2020, at 58:56 you can see the "T-14 Armata" tank. In the turret, it is metal sheets with pins - i.e. it is a mock vehicle.

    But still, every year, they parade "T-14 Armata" tank, and everyone pretends it is already a real tank. It's possible they don't explain to Putin are showing a mock concept vehicle each year. After all, Putin has shown video scenes from computer games to journalists and said it was the Russian army fighting in Syria. Although he also must know that much of this is based in fictions, as he helped designing some of them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y5HurvGouc

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Such paranoia about nuclear strikes in the US were part of the Johnson v Goldwater election, Blast From The Past or Red Dawn were real to many Americans. The BBC regularly ran shows depicting the 10 minutes the UK had before being glassed. The bunkers you’d have to live in. Dr Strangelove wasnt about an actual Nuclear War it was about the hysteria about nuclear war. Raymond Briggs did a Nuclear Snowman called When the Wind Blows. God only knows how the Germans experienced the prospect of a tactical nuke in Kassel.

    Western cunts have taken the spectacle of self annihilation to be an experience of the highest aesthetic order.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Wokechoke


    Such paranoia about nuclear strikes in the US were part of the Johnson v Goldwater election
     
    If you read The Conscience of a Conservative, Goldwater said he wanted to roll the tanks into Eastern Europe. Maybe, it was grandstanding to sound tough, or, maybe, he really would have done it.
  508. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is now in the East where they were in the North in mid-March.

    Meanwhile, they are already in full retreat from Kharkhiv to their own border.

    And Western artillery is not online yet. It outranges Russian artillery and should be finally deployed in the East perhaps tomorrow.

    Russian casualties and defeats are about to skyrocket. Their only option is to withdraw. Even a tactical nuke won't save them. Its use would sever even China's tepid friendship. And the West would be forced to escalate to de-escalate itself. Any other response would legitimise the use of nuclear weapons in the 21st Century. I suggest they would be best served by telling Russia that they would bomb every Russian asset within the sovereign borders of Ukraine in 48 hours for 2 weeks as retaliation. There is no response that Russia could have, that they would not have already sunk to. It would be check mate and would force their immediate withdrawal, but in total disgrace.

    Much more sensible they just leave now. Or desperately try and sign a deal for the pre-war borders via referendum. They can probably forget about "no NATO' though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Mr. Hack

    They can probably forget about “no NATO’ though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.

    And their level of stupidity too. Ukraine is already, if not defacto than dejure, a part of NATO. Any observer can see today where Ukraine would be without the help of NATO member countries. This unity is driving Ukraine closer and closer into full membership. Without it, they’ll forever be at risk of experiencing the same unprovoked horrors that Moscow has already unleashed on Ukraine.

    • Agree: sudden death
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine is more the Forlorn Hope of the NATO umbrella corps.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forlorn_hope

    It's Slav butchering Slav too which is a bonus.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  509. @AP
    @utu


    So now I must revise the 33.3% up to 40%. So now my position is that it is reasonable to assume that 40% of violence against German civilians including rapes and executions of POW’s including the young Volkssturm members was committed by Red Army soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity.
     
    You were in a hole, and chose to dig deeper.

    The 40% figure is important if those 40% were evenly distributed among Soviet forces in Germany at the time of the rapes and mass murders. Were they? The victims themselves identified their attackers as "Russians" and "Mongols." Might they have assumed Ukrainians were Russians? Probably to some extent, but enough to miss 40% of attackers? Doubtful.

    Some parts of Poland were also subject to rape by Soviet soldiers. Poles would be better than Germans at differentiating Russians from Ukrainians. Guess what? They described their Soviet attackers as Russians, not as Ukrainians:

    https://magazyn.wp.pl/ksiazki/artykul/zbrodnia-w-borucinie-zmurszala-pamiec

    But now let's look at the units in Germany at the time of the rapes. I posted a link. You conveniently ignored it. It didn't support your lies about the decent Ukrainians.

    Berlin was captured by the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/8th_Guards_Combined_Arms_Army

    Not every unit's origin is listed, but those that are listed show origins in Russia: Urals (Russians, some Bashkirs or Tatars), Volga (Russians, some Tatars), Voronezh (Russians), Transbaikal (Russians and Buryats).

    Here is the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany:

    https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Group_of_Soviet_Forces_in_Germany

    1. First Tank Army, formed on the basis of the 29th Tank army that had been created in the Moscow military district (Russians)
    2. 2nd Guards Tank Army - units created in Tambov (Russians) and Kiev (Ukrainians)
    3. 4th Guards Tank Army - units created in Urals (Russians and Bashkirs), Perm (Russians)
    4. 2nd Shock Army - units created in northern Russia, Urals
    5. 3rd Shock army - units came from Central Asia, Urals
    6. 8th Guards Army (see above) - Russians and some Buryats

    Mostly Russians and "Mongolians"

    Your argument that “the victims themselves identified Russians or Mongols (i.e., Buryats and Tuvans) as the criminals and rarely mentioned Ukrainians” is just another of your primitive lies
     
    Retract this lie. Here are victims describing Mongol attackers:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=mmPklXqPHGwC&pg=PA60&lpg#v=onepage&q&f=false

    I looked through several google books about this. Once a Ukrainian attacker was mentioned, but otherwise it was Russians or Mongols.

    I'm not going to go further into this, but your claim that 40% of attackers were ethnic Ukrainians was a lie.

    I do think that any credible study was ever conduced to identify the ethnicity of culprits and estimate their percentages
     
    I haven't seen this but it can be inferred from witness statements and units present at the time of the crimes.

    The argument about alcohol consumption differences between Russian and Ukrainians even if true does not translates to alcohol consumption differences once in military during a war
     
    And why would it not? You think there is no correlation between peacetime drinking and wartime drinking? Russians drink nearly twice the amount of hard liquor as Ukrainians. You think in times of war Russians would start to drink less and Ukrainians drink more?

    Interestingly enough, during this war the Russians troops are often drunk and the Ukrainian ones are typically sober.

    Indeed, what Russians had done in occupied Ukraine is very similar to what Russians had been doing in Germany after the war. Getting drunk, raping, robbing and killing local civilians. Elderly Ukrainians living in the outskirts of Kiev and Kharkiv have stated that the Russian troops treated them much worse than had the German soldiers (obviously the German administration was horrible but the regular German soldiers were less indecent than Russians in terms of treatment of civilians).

    The “kinder and gentler than Russians” people (“and have been so historically”) apparently must occasionally be possessed against their will by Satanic forces when they enthusiastically engage in despicable massacres against Jews and Poles from 17th century to 20th century
     
    In the 20th century, Ukrainians killed far fewer civilians than did Germans, Russians, Americans, Brits, Croats, Turks, and various Balkanoids (among Europeans). Poles have cleaner hands than do Ukrainians of course, but Ukrainians are kinder and gentler than Russians.

    During 1943–1944, the Red Army recruited, more than 3 million people or 10% of the total population of Ukraine (in the Volyn region, this figure was 16%
     
    Population of Volynia was small so higher relative % does not translate into many troops. and unreliable Volynians (Volynia was infested with Banderists) weren't going to get sent to the front in large numbers.

    And before you lie again and claim I justify this crime ” – I did claim it because I had a recollection of you stating something along the lines that from the POV of Ukraine national interests it was justifiable.
     
    Your recollection was mistaken. Retract it or be a liar.

    I stated that it was wrong and inexcusable, but that it was less inexcusable than larger scale killings because the Ukrainians were fighting for national survival on their own lands. The Brits and Americans who had incinerated far more German civilians than Ukrainians killed Poles were under no threat of German invasion and occupation when this was done. In contrast, Poles were claiming those lands and had even planned to ethnically cleanse them of Ukrainians (through deportations not killings), before the Ukrainians preemptively began the mass killings. I will emphasize again that this is not a justification to murder women, children and other civilians.

    This is what the Poles of Galicia and Volynia had planned before their people were getting killed:

    "Having perceived Ukrainian collaboration with the Soviet government in 1939–1941 and then with the Germans, the local Poles generally thought that Ukrainians ought to be removed from the territories. In July 1942 a memorandum by the staff of the Home Army in Lviv in July 1942 recommended that between 1 million and 1.5 million Ukrainians to be deported from Galicia and Volhynia to the Soviet Union and the rest scattered throughout Poland.[58][59] Suggestions of limited Ukrainian autonomy, as was being discussed by the Home Army in Warsaw and the Polish government-in-exile in London, found no support among the local Poles."

    That line is not about your lies.
     
    I have made mistakes but have never lied here. Unlike you, sadly.

    :::::::::::::

    I am not a Ukrainian nationalist, I like A-H and the PLC better (at least, before Khmelnytsky's treason). But a Ukrainian nation state is better than being stuck in a Polish nationalist or a Russian nationalist one. And the Polish nationalist Dmowski (never married, rumored to be a homosexual blackmailed by the Russians) whose ruinous policies destroyed what was left of the PLC legacy was himself partially responsible for the evil that that was unleashed.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    It’s highly likely that the rapey Russians were in fact Mongol, Turkic.

    fits the Ghengis stereotype.

    The British incinerated city after city but not so much on the rape side of things. The English are Exterminating Angels.

    But there’s a case that Ukraine quickly capitulated to the Germans and made the war a lot worse by doing that in the long run. It confirms the Nazi stereotype. This is not a criticism, but it’s clear that the Ukies were pro Nazi. Barbarossa succeeded partly because Ukies favored the invasion.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wokechoke


    But there’s a case that Ukraine quickly capitulated to the Germans and made the war a lot worse by doing that in the long run. It confirms the Nazi stereotype. This is not a criticism, but it’s clear that the Ukies were pro Nazi. Barbarossa succeeded partly because Ukies favored the invasion.
     
    Why wouldn't they, given that Stalin had exterminated millions of them? Even a lot of Russians favored the invasion at the beginning, before Nazi policies became clear.
  510. @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa


    They can probably forget about “no NATO’ though. For the Ukrainians to agree, their mercy would have to be astonishing.
     
    And their level of stupidity too. Ukraine is already, if not defacto than dejure, a part of NATO. Any observer can see today where Ukraine would be without the help of NATO member countries. This unity is driving Ukraine closer and closer into full membership. Without it, they'll forever be at risk of experiencing the same unprovoked horrors that Moscow has already unleashed on Ukraine.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Ukraine is more the Forlorn Hope of the NATO umbrella corps.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forlorn_hope

    It’s Slav butchering Slav too which is a bonus.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Wokechoke


    In consequence, despite the grave risks involved for all concerned, there was often serious competition for the opportunity to lead such an assault and to display conspicuous valor.
     
    Indeed. The whole world seems in awe of the heroic spirit of the Ukrainian military today.


    As for a war of "Slav butchering slav", the Ukrainians, you know, have never really considered the Russians as kindred Slavs, but more as barbaric hordes from the East. Indeed, Vladimir and later Moscow, have been seen as historical inheritors of the mantle of the Golden Horde , and their greedy and bloody invasion of Ukraine only helps to certify this image in the minds of most Ukrainians today.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  511. @Wokechoke
    @Dmitry

    Such paranoia about nuclear strikes in the US were part of the Johnson v Goldwater election, Blast From The Past or Red Dawn were real to many Americans. The BBC regularly ran shows depicting the 10 minutes the UK had before being glassed. The bunkers you'd have to live in. Dr Strangelove wasnt about an actual Nuclear War it was about the hysteria about nuclear war. Raymond Briggs did a Nuclear Snowman called When the Wind Blows. God only knows how the Germans experienced the prospect of a tactical nuke in Kassel.

    Western cunts have taken the spectacle of self annihilation to be an experience of the highest aesthetic order.

    Replies: @songbird

    Such paranoia about nuclear strikes in the US were part of the Johnson v Goldwater election

    If you read The Conscience of a Conservative, Goldwater said he wanted to roll the tanks into Eastern Europe. Maybe, it was grandstanding to sound tough, or, maybe, he really would have done it.

  512. @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Good god almighty. You are the one suggesting that the BAE m777 Howitzer outranges the Russian SP guns. 25m range v 70m in respectively.

    The m777 is good because it is very light weight. So a Marine or Parachute unit can have organic artillery.

    It's not as powerful as the Russian fleet of Self Propelled guns. You invalidate yourself with your wild claims on war gear.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    m777

    It is light, but requires some more labor – 8 soldiers to use it. Whereas self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000, only 3 (although with months of training), or Msta-5 requires 5.

    On another side, Military History Visualized argues that this towing artillery is more useful as you can interchange vehicles. unlike self-propelled which depend on reliability of the single chassis. Also he argues that it is more labor intensive howitzers, potentially reliable than automated systems, easier for mechanics. https://youtu.be/F_DS6UvZXPo?t=709.

  513. AP says:
    @Wokechoke
    @AP

    It's highly likely that the rapey Russians were in fact Mongol, Turkic.

    fits the Ghengis stereotype.

    The British incinerated city after city but not so much on the rape side of things. The English are Exterminating Angels.

    But there's a case that Ukraine quickly capitulated to the Germans and made the war a lot worse by doing that in the long run. It confirms the Nazi stereotype. This is not a criticism, but it's clear that the Ukies were pro Nazi. Barbarossa succeeded partly because Ukies favored the invasion.

    Replies: @AP

    But there’s a case that Ukraine quickly capitulated to the Germans and made the war a lot worse by doing that in the long run. It confirms the Nazi stereotype. This is not a criticism, but it’s clear that the Ukies were pro Nazi. Barbarossa succeeded partly because Ukies favored the invasion.

    Why wouldn’t they, given that Stalin had exterminated millions of them? Even a lot of Russians favored the invasion at the beginning, before Nazi policies became clear.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  514. It is like Trump left a ticking time bomb to blow up in the faces of progressives, who thought they had seen the last of him.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  515. @songbird
    @German_reader


    None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first (and why would NATO do that?
     
    If you are going to nuclear saber-rattle, IMO, it makes sense to do it earlier, rather than later. By doing it earlier, you can potentially cause people to deviate from escalatory measures, calming the situation or keeping it from getting close to DEFCON 1.

    In this case, I think the Russians are looking to discourage the supply of more big weapons and possibly military intervention by the Poles, which could easily turn into direct military conflict with America.

    It all seems very ham-fisted, but Russia has lost nearly all the traditional prestige it had, when it was the USSR. Their military doesn't look super-impressive. Their space program is starting to look sort of rusty, compared to what SpaceX is doing, even if NASA itself is a shitshow for the money. All they really have left is nukes. And these new ones seem calculated to have a psychological effect.

    I find myself oddly sympathetic. It would be scary to be gazing across from the other side and seeing Rachel Levine, George Floyd, the successors of John McCain, doddering Biden. The strange ideologies of the West. I remember seeing some pretty dark stuff about Russians on the web like seven years ago, and it had pretty clear racial undertones.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    This is why many aren’t hoping Russia to win and Ukraine to lose, but for the US to be crushed. The world outside of Europe and Anglo countries, the true believers, has enough of liberal capitalism

  516. @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine is more the Forlorn Hope of the NATO umbrella corps.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forlorn_hope

    It's Slav butchering Slav too which is a bonus.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    In consequence, despite the grave risks involved for all concerned, there was often serious competition for the opportunity to lead such an assault and to display conspicuous valor.

    Indeed. The whole world seems in awe of the heroic spirit of the Ukrainian military today.

    As for a war of “Slav butchering slav”, the Ukrainians, you know, have never really considered the Russians as kindred Slavs, but more as barbaric hordes from the East. Indeed, Vladimir and later Moscow, have been seen as historical inheritors of the mantle of the Golden Horde , and their greedy and bloody invasion of Ukraine only helps to certify this image in the minds of most Ukrainians today.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    Keep telling yourself that...

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  517. @songbird
    @German_reader

    Russian state TV recently released CGI footage of their new wunderwaffe nuclear tsunami torpedo, wiping Ireland and Britain totally clean with radioactive seawater.

    I'm no expert on thermonuclear physics or wave propagation, but I must say I feel pretty skeptical that one torpedo could do that.

    It would be funny if they made a companion video for their new Satan-II missile, calculated to mess with the brains of progressives, where they launch one missile towards France, and then the 12 warheads detach, and it cuts to a series of captioned shots of French cities filled with blacks, Arabs, and trannies that suddenly vanish, and as the light fades, transition to urban scenes filled with normal French people, with young children. All the while ominous music plays.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Yellowface Anon

    Did you read what I said about Russian TV showing Western European capitalism being in nuclear range? Putin indeed has realized the quickest way to start archeofuturism in Western Europe is Nuclear Orthodoxy, and that includes the end to ethnomasochism (which is what the Nouvelle Droit calls mass 3rd world immigration/Great Replacement) by the radioactive purge of largely migrant-filled Banlieues.

    Also, sinking the source of 250 years of global destruction and an increasingly Pajeet-filled place (aka the British Isles) under the waves. Not a leap of logic to suggest using nuclear mines to change plate tectonics and implode the Ring of Fire + Yellowstone, and Russia could start hiring geologists to investigate war plans like that, the way bluffing goes.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    It would be darkly funny, if atomics turned geodeterministic geography against progressivism. I suppose the Netherlands would also be screwed.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  518. apparently US inventory of stingers was 5600, with 1400 now sent to UKR. raytheon says they are short parts and could not make any more stingers for a year at least. raytheon also says the haven’t made new stingers in 20 (!) years.

    javelin inventory was around 20,000 with either 7000 or 12,000 (not sure) already sent to UKR. US getting close to shutting down javelin transfers, as it wants to retain at least 50% for itself. so that’s about 1 billion dollars in javelins blown in 2 months. a totally unsustainable level, which US admits. javelin production will take years to get back to previous levels. effectiveness of javelins is up for review. like offensive drones, it’s possible they were less effective at knocking out armor than the Hot Take bros said early on. for how many were shipped, the numbers don’t add up that well.

    this leaves NLAW, AT-4, and LAW (version 7?) numbers still less known. i’m under the impression NLAW is effective up close, but overbuilt and too heavy for what it does. AT-4 is not effective against current tanks, and for US forces, was in the process of being phased out. for that matter, it seems like hand grenades are being phased out for 40mm grenades.

    i don’t see carl gustav stuff in captured weapons reports, i’m thinking not much of that was sent.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
  519. @Mr. Hack
    @Wokechoke


    In consequence, despite the grave risks involved for all concerned, there was often serious competition for the opportunity to lead such an assault and to display conspicuous valor.
     
    Indeed. The whole world seems in awe of the heroic spirit of the Ukrainian military today.


    As for a war of "Slav butchering slav", the Ukrainians, you know, have never really considered the Russians as kindred Slavs, but more as barbaric hordes from the East. Indeed, Vladimir and later Moscow, have been seen as historical inheritors of the mantle of the Golden Horde , and their greedy and bloody invasion of Ukraine only helps to certify this image in the minds of most Ukrainians today.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Keep telling yourself that…

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Wokechoke

    I don't need to. The Ukrainian news sources that I listen to do this for me every day. They refer to the Russian invaders as either "ордісти", "рашісти", "загарбники", "нацисти", "окупант", "нечисть", "комуна", "орки", although there seems to be a little controversy surrounding "орки". Some literati feel that " "орки" is actually too good to use for the filth from the north country, as it was taken from JRR Tolkien's "Lord of the Rings" trilogy:


    Orcs are a brutish, aggressive, ugly, and malevolent race of monsters, contrasting with the benevolent Elves and serving an evil power, though they share a human sense of morality.
     
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/Orc_mask_by_GrimZombie.jpg/300px-Orc_mask_by_GrimZombie.jpg

    A typical looking orc. You decide whether or not it's an accurate depiction of your typical Russian military invader or not? I happen to think that its close enough. :-(

  520. • Replies: @German_reader
    @sudden death

    The difference is that Germany dominating all of Europe might conceivably have posed a threat to the US in the long run. At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
    It's much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest. These places were under Russian domination for most of the last 300 years, and it didn't really matter at all to most Westerners.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @Beckow

  521. @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    Keep telling yourself that...

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I don’t need to. The Ukrainian news sources that I listen to do this for me every day. They refer to the Russian invaders as either “ордісти”, “рашісти”, “загарбники”, “нацисти”, “окупант”, “нечисть”, “комуна”, “орки”, although there seems to be a little controversy surrounding “орки”. Some literati feel that ” “орки” is actually too good to use for the filth from the north country, as it was taken from JRR Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” trilogy:

    Orcs are a brutish, aggressive, ugly, and malevolent race of monsters, contrasting with the benevolent Elves and serving an evil power, though they share a human sense of morality.


    A typical looking orc. You decide whether or not it’s an accurate depiction of your typical Russian military invader or not? I happen to think that its close enough. 🙁

  522. German_reader says:
    @sudden death
    Nothing ever changed much, there were never so clear unity when America was great too:


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRsXWVFXsAkXHP5?format=jpg&name=medium

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRsXWVJXEAEA96e?format=jpg&name=medium

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRsXWVLXEAIkRC0?format=jpg&name=medium

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRsXWVHXIAACzZT?format=jpg&name=medium

    Replies: @German_reader

    The difference is that Germany dominating all of Europe might conceivably have posed a threat to the US in the long run. At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin’s Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
    It’s much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest. These places were under Russian domination for most of the last 300 years, and it didn’t really matter at all to most Westerners.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    It appears that US policymakers are intent on keeping their influence in Ukraine, a place that is more than content to receive any help that it can from this bona-fide superpower to help keep its freedom and sovereignty in tact. It's a very important strategic country to control, and the Russians were incompetent enough to let it go, when not all that long ago they had a lot of goodwill there. Not any more, they've shut that door for decades to come now. What's the alternative for Ukraine?

    https://cdn-japantimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/np_file_144106-e1646994316357-870x497.jpeg

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @sudden death
    @German_reader


    At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin’s Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
     
    You say so, but probably there were more than plenty isolationists arguing that US was at war with bloody GB aristocratic imperialists just little bit more than hundred year ago/George Washington left the imperative not ever to go into Europe/defeat of Britain may let US take Canada completely which is way more important to US than saving some abstract geopolitical British world order ;)
    , @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ..It’s much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest.
     
    Yes. It is by now clear that control of those places is a US strategic goal. They decided long time ago - in 1991, 2007, 2012. The realization that is the case is required for to rationally comment on the war. The endless belly-aching about "wars are evil" gets us nowhere. Yes, they are - but wars happen for a reason. This one is a game of chicken between two strategies: one pushes, other withdraws, until they both push. A macabre dance of geography.

    There are two possible reason why the West wants to control Ukraine:
    - They like the Ukrainian people and want them to be happy - the Laxa laxative model based on the belief in the essential Western virtue. (Mr. Hack: they cheer you on for a reason and it is not to build a Disney park in Zhitomir.)

    - To use Ukraine to checkmate Russia in the future - the Kremlin paranoia model based on their experiences and fears of the West.

    Which is more likely? Has the West shown any desire in the last 8 years to improve Ukraine's well-being, get them to EU, build up the country? No.

    Has the West armed Ukraine, refused to compromise on trifles like language rights or local autonomy? Yes. Have they shown any desire to compromise? No.

    This is not even a close call, the strategy is obvious. But the "war is hell" narrative is so easy, isn't it?

  523. German_reader says:

    Read some comments by an Austrian military export who says Russia might win its Donbass offensive through attrition, unless Ukraine gets heavy weapons. Sounded much bleaker than the reporting in most of the media. The next few weeks might be critical. If Ukraine can manage to stave off defeat, presumably more weapons supplies might arrive in the summer (though Russia will try to intercept them…apparently they have destroyed or captured a significant amount of previous arms shipments, even those of a type which should be comparatively easy to conceal).

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    The Ukraine soldiers in Donbas are going to be slaughtered or humiliated since they are stars on the internet. Sad. Not a given though--it's only 96% probable or so.

    That the EU is a Nazi institution at origin, in doctrine, and continuously before 1945 until now is documented in the following:

    The Nazi Roots of the Brussels EU, Paul Anthony Taylor, Aleksandra Niedzwiecki, MatthiasRath, and August Kowalczyk

    https://www.drrathbooks.com/product/the-nazi-roots-of-the-brussels-eu/

    Farrell's book The Third Way has two terrific photographs of Nazi law professor Walter Hallstein with Konrad Adenauer and Willi Brandt at official functions. Obviously I would have to have studied these questions far more deeply than I have done so to claim them authentically authoritatively factual. The best documents are published in German which I do not read. The EU Central Bank is located in Frankfurt. : )

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  524. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    The difference is that Germany dominating all of Europe might conceivably have posed a threat to the US in the long run. At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
    It's much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest. These places were under Russian domination for most of the last 300 years, and it didn't really matter at all to most Westerners.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @Beckow

    It appears that US policymakers are intent on keeping their influence in Ukraine, a place that is more than content to receive any help that it can from this bona-fide superpower to help keep its freedom and sovereignty in tact. It’s a very important strategic country to control, and the Russians were incompetent enough to let it go, when not all that long ago they had a lot of goodwill there. Not any more, they’ve shut that door for decades to come now. What’s the alternative for Ukraine?

    • LOL: German_reader
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack

    "LOL" for the cartoon.
    Ukraine doesn't really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow's whim). The US conceivably might have had one in its Ukraine policy. Bit of an academic question now though.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  525. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    The difference is that Germany dominating all of Europe might conceivably have posed a threat to the US in the long run. At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
    It's much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest. These places were under Russian domination for most of the last 300 years, and it didn't really matter at all to most Westerners.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @Beckow

    At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin’s Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.

    You say so, but probably there were more than plenty isolationists arguing that US was at war with bloody GB aristocratic imperialists just little bit more than hundred year ago/George Washington left the imperative not ever to go into Europe/defeat of Britain may let US take Canada completely which is way more important to US than saving some abstract geopolitical British world order 😉

  526. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    It appears that US policymakers are intent on keeping their influence in Ukraine, a place that is more than content to receive any help that it can from this bona-fide superpower to help keep its freedom and sovereignty in tact. It's a very important strategic country to control, and the Russians were incompetent enough to let it go, when not all that long ago they had a lot of goodwill there. Not any more, they've shut that door for decades to come now. What's the alternative for Ukraine?

    https://cdn-japantimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/np_file_144106-e1646994316357-870x497.jpeg

    Replies: @German_reader

    “LOL” for the cartoon.
    Ukraine doesn’t really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow’s whim). The US conceivably might have had one in its Ukraine policy. Bit of an academic question now though.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader


    Ukraine doesn’t really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow’s whim).
     
    So, you're throwing in your towel and predicting that Russia will end up winning this war, and continue its domination of Ukraine? Frankly, I'm a little bit surprised that you're leaning this way...

    You don't feel that the cartoon sums up Putin's positions as regarding Ukraine?

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

  527. @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack

    "LOL" for the cartoon.
    Ukraine doesn't really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow's whim). The US conceivably might have had one in its Ukraine policy. Bit of an academic question now though.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine doesn’t really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow’s whim).

    So, you’re throwing in your towel and predicting that Russia will end up winning this war, and continue its domination of Ukraine? Frankly, I’m a little bit surprised that you’re leaning this way…

    You don’t feel that the cartoon sums up Putin’s positions as regarding Ukraine?

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack

    You totally misunderstood my comment, no, I don't think Ukraine should surrender, obviously just giving up so Putin's FSB thugs can "disappear" anyone they consider a "Banderist" isn't acceptable.
    I don't want Russia to win either, just seems that there might be a greater risk of that happening in the Donbass that commonly understood. So it's probably necessary to send Ukraine heavy weapons. There are a lot of practical issues though (what to send without impairing NATO's defense, how to get weapons there without Russia intercepting them, how to ensure logistics etc.).
    I admit I have a lot of conflicting feelings on the issue (don't want Russia to subjugate Ukraine, but am afraid of possible escalation into a wider war or even nuclear catastrophe). It's probably good I don't have to make any decisions.

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    That cartoon is on the intellectual level of a Junior High School: a rather sad nothing. By displaying it you are pinning yourself as either a simpleton, or a desperado who will take any palliative to temporarily feel better.

    Ukraine will have to compromise, something they absolutely refused to do before February. You can dream about a "push-back", but even the ugly alternative of a nuclear disaster is more likely. They are both still very unlikely.

    The most likely end is that Russia grinds the Kiev forces out of the south-east: Kiev loses a large part of its industry, its bread basket and most of its access to the Black See.

    The rump Ukraine will be heavily armed, furious - but still not in EU. It will be smaller and poorer. The guerrilla war fantasies will fizzle out, because...well, because Russians will also be angry and dealing with angry Russians is not much fun. Trying another war with Russia would be seen as an outright suicide. This is not "throwing in the towel", this is how it will play out.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  528. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    The difference is that Germany dominating all of Europe might conceivably have posed a threat to the US in the long run. At the very least a world of autarkic blocs dominated by the likes of Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union or imperial Japan would have been a lot more dangerous to US interests than the previous world order guaranteed by Britain.
    It's much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest. These places were under Russian domination for most of the last 300 years, and it didn't really matter at all to most Westerners.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death, @Beckow

    ..It’s much harder to make a case why the ownership of Crimea, Kharkiv or even Kyiv should be a vital US interest.

    Yes. It is by now clear that control of those places is a US strategic goal. They decided long time ago – in 1991, 2007, 2012. The realization that is the case is required for to rationally comment on the war. The endless belly-aching about “wars are evil” gets us nowhere. Yes, they are – but wars happen for a reason. This one is a game of chicken between two strategies: one pushes, other withdraws, until they both push. A macabre dance of geography.

    There are two possible reason why the West wants to control Ukraine:
    – They like the Ukrainian people and want them to be happy – the Laxa laxative model based on the belief in the essential Western virtue. (Mr. Hack: they cheer you on for a reason and it is not to build a Disney park in Zhitomir.)

    – To use Ukraine to checkmate Russia in the future – the Kremlin paranoia model based on their experiences and fears of the West.

    Which is more likely? Has the West shown any desire in the last 8 years to improve Ukraine’s well-being, get them to EU, build up the country? No.

    Has the West armed Ukraine, refused to compromise on trifles like language rights or local autonomy? Yes. Have they shown any desire to compromise? No.

    This is not even a close call, the strategy is obvious. But the “war is hell” narrative is so easy, isn’t it?

  529. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Did you read what I said about Russian TV showing Western European capitalism being in nuclear range? Putin indeed has realized the quickest way to start archeofuturism in Western Europe is Nuclear Orthodoxy, and that includes the end to ethnomasochism (which is what the Nouvelle Droit calls mass 3rd world immigration/Great Replacement) by the radioactive purge of largely migrant-filled Banlieues.

    Also, sinking the source of 250 years of global destruction and an increasingly Pajeet-filled place (aka the British Isles) under the waves. Not a leap of logic to suggest using nuclear mines to change plate tectonics and implode the Ring of Fire + Yellowstone, and Russia could start hiring geologists to investigate war plans like that, the way bluffing goes.

    Replies: @songbird

    It would be darkly funny, if atomics turned geodeterministic geography against progressivism. I suppose the Netherlands would also be screwed.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Nuclear Weapons' strategic value is a total reset, regional or global.

  530. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader


    Ukraine doesn’t really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow’s whim).
     
    So, you're throwing in your towel and predicting that Russia will end up winning this war, and continue its domination of Ukraine? Frankly, I'm a little bit surprised that you're leaning this way...

    You don't feel that the cartoon sums up Putin's positions as regarding Ukraine?

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

    You totally misunderstood my comment, no, I don’t think Ukraine should surrender, obviously just giving up so Putin’s FSB thugs can “disappear” anyone they consider a “Banderist” isn’t acceptable.
    I don’t want Russia to win either, just seems that there might be a greater risk of that happening in the Donbass that commonly understood. So it’s probably necessary to send Ukraine heavy weapons. There are a lot of practical issues though (what to send without impairing NATO’s defense, how to get weapons there without Russia intercepting them, how to ensure logistics etc.).
    I admit I have a lot of conflicting feelings on the issue (don’t want Russia to subjugate Ukraine, but am afraid of possible escalation into a wider war or even nuclear catastrophe). It’s probably good I don’t have to make any decisions.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @German_reader


    I admit I have a lot of conflicting feelings on the issue (don’t want Russia to subjugate Ukraine, but am afraid of possible escalation into a wider war or even nuclear catastrophe). It’s probably good I don’t have to make any decisions.
     
    Mostly agree, but guess it shows cynical truth spitter Biden in his prime was essentially right though - that's why they drive in limos, but we don't as it is above our paygrade, lol

    Maybe it shouldn't be that way, but it is...

  531. @S
    @AP

    I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree, AP.

    I will leave you (or any interested) with an 1851 London Times editorial linked below, entitled 'The American Minister in Ireland', which reveals the true ugly and hateful face of the genocidal ideology of Multi-culturalism. It's refreshing in it's honesty as it doesn't have the 'positive spin', something they hadn't yet perfected at the time.

    It tells the story of the 1851 visit by the US ambassador to the UK, Abbott Lawrence, who almost certainly not coincidentally in this context was also a Massachusetts textile factory magnate and founder of Lawrence 'Immigrant City', Mass. It declares quite bluntly that due to the Irish people's enmasse predation as wage slaves (ie so called 'cheap labor') by the United States that the Irish people will be 'known no more'.

    That by diktat, imported immigrants who have 'mixed' with the Irish, and are 'more mixed', 'more docile', and 'which can submit to a master' will take the more purely Celtic Irish people's place in Ireland. [With all due respect, this replacement slave race they are describing in this context is a clear reference to the descendants of the Plantation, the people of Northern Ireland today.]

    This reveals what is in reality the utter contempt held towards 'immigrants' and the resulting 'mixed' populations. They see them as slaves.

    The editorial then wryly comments how further profits are being made off the utter misery of the Irish people, as ships and rail roads have to be constructed to ship the Irish out.

    I hope the Ukrainian people survive the war.

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared 'progressive' government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence's own well paid Anglo-Saxon local 'Yankee girls' who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave 'immigrants' being 'paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    You won't be asked. It will be done by diktat.

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule...


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg/800px-Birdseye_view_of_Lawrence_mill_section_showing_areas_occupied_by_different_nationalities.jpg

    https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=coo.31924079600965&view=1up&seq=296&skin=2021

    Replies: @AP, @keypusher

    However, unless the Ukrainian people remove their present corrupt self declared ‘progressive’ government, or, it is somehow majorly reformed, you will be able to transpose the 1910 map of Lawrence, Mass (where Abbott Lawrence’s own well paid Anglo-Saxon local ‘Yankee girls’ who had been doing the work had long since been displaced by imported wage slave ‘immigrants’ being ‘paid starvation wages) over Kiev, Lviv, or, Kharkov.

    Not to be rude, but this is hysteria, not to mention rank stupidity. People didn’t cross the Atlantic Ocean to be paid starvation wages.

  532. @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader


    Ukraine doesn’t really have an alternative (except subjection to Moscow’s whim).
     
    So, you're throwing in your towel and predicting that Russia will end up winning this war, and continue its domination of Ukraine? Frankly, I'm a little bit surprised that you're leaning this way...

    You don't feel that the cartoon sums up Putin's positions as regarding Ukraine?

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

    That cartoon is on the intellectual level of a Junior High School: a rather sad nothing. By displaying it you are pinning yourself as either a simpleton, or a desperado who will take any palliative to temporarily feel better.

    Ukraine will have to compromise, something they absolutely refused to do before February. You can dream about a “push-back”, but even the ugly alternative of a nuclear disaster is more likely. They are both still very unlikely.

    The most likely end is that Russia grinds the Kiev forces out of the south-east: Kiev loses a large part of its industry, its bread basket and most of its access to the Black See.

    The rump Ukraine will be heavily armed, furious – but still not in EU. It will be smaller and poorer. The guerrilla war fantasies will fizzle out, because…well, because Russians will also be angry and dealing with angry Russians is not much fun. Trying another war with Russia would be seen as an outright suicide. This is not “throwing in the towel“, this is how it will play out.

    • Disagree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    If Ukraine were all alone and isolated in this conflict, your views might make more sense. But it's not.
    Many countries are supporting Ukraine, even Australia recently sent some tanks to Ukraine. But the biggest sponsor of Ukraine is undoubtedly the U.S. It recently passed a lend/lease package for Ukraine that really is a big deal, a game changer. The U.S. carefully considered doing this package, and is not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top. The cartoon is really a good one. It fairly describes Putin's duplicitous actions in Ukraine. Actually, it's no high school production, but quite professional and well thought out! :-)

    Replies: @Beckow

  533. @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack

    You totally misunderstood my comment, no, I don't think Ukraine should surrender, obviously just giving up so Putin's FSB thugs can "disappear" anyone they consider a "Banderist" isn't acceptable.
    I don't want Russia to win either, just seems that there might be a greater risk of that happening in the Donbass that commonly understood. So it's probably necessary to send Ukraine heavy weapons. There are a lot of practical issues though (what to send without impairing NATO's defense, how to get weapons there without Russia intercepting them, how to ensure logistics etc.).
    I admit I have a lot of conflicting feelings on the issue (don't want Russia to subjugate Ukraine, but am afraid of possible escalation into a wider war or even nuclear catastrophe). It's probably good I don't have to make any decisions.

    Replies: @sudden death

    I admit I have a lot of conflicting feelings on the issue (don’t want Russia to subjugate Ukraine, but am afraid of possible escalation into a wider war or even nuclear catastrophe). It’s probably good I don’t have to make any decisions.

    Mostly agree, but guess it shows cynical truth spitter Biden in his prime was essentially right though – that’s why they drive in limos, but we don’t as it is above our paygrade, lol

    Maybe it shouldn’t be that way, but it is…

  534. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    That cartoon is on the intellectual level of a Junior High School: a rather sad nothing. By displaying it you are pinning yourself as either a simpleton, or a desperado who will take any palliative to temporarily feel better.

    Ukraine will have to compromise, something they absolutely refused to do before February. You can dream about a "push-back", but even the ugly alternative of a nuclear disaster is more likely. They are both still very unlikely.

    The most likely end is that Russia grinds the Kiev forces out of the south-east: Kiev loses a large part of its industry, its bread basket and most of its access to the Black See.

    The rump Ukraine will be heavily armed, furious - but still not in EU. It will be smaller and poorer. The guerrilla war fantasies will fizzle out, because...well, because Russians will also be angry and dealing with angry Russians is not much fun. Trying another war with Russia would be seen as an outright suicide. This is not "throwing in the towel", this is how it will play out.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    If Ukraine were all alone and isolated in this conflict, your views might make more sense. But it’s not.
    Many countries are supporting Ukraine, even Australia recently sent some tanks to Ukraine. But the biggest sponsor of Ukraine is undoubtedly the U.S. It recently passed a lend/lease package for Ukraine that really is a big deal, a game changer. The U.S. carefully considered doing this package, and is not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top. The cartoon is really a good one. It fairly describes Putin’s duplicitous actions in Ukraine. Actually, it’s no high school production, but quite professional and well thought out! 🙂

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack


    ....even Australia recently sent some tanks
     
    How about New Zealand? It will have 0.00001 impact on the war, and you know it.

    ...not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top.
     
    Trust what? US let a trillion dollar investment go down the drain in Afghanistan just last year. Before that in Iraq, Syria...in Vietnam. $33 billion in 2022 is little, most of it is old equipment that was going to be scrapped. Russians will scrap it for them.

    West is prolonging the suffering. They did the same in Afghanistan where it was basically over by 2010, in Vietnam, etc... The happy-talk mania sells weapons and saves faces. Your enthusiasm is understandable but nobody beats Russia with enthusiasm and media stories. You still don't get it: Russia sees this as an existential fight, you escalate, they escalate in turn. But enjoy your current respite from bad news...

    Replies: @AP

  535. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    If Ukraine were all alone and isolated in this conflict, your views might make more sense. But it's not.
    Many countries are supporting Ukraine, even Australia recently sent some tanks to Ukraine. But the biggest sponsor of Ukraine is undoubtedly the U.S. It recently passed a lend/lease package for Ukraine that really is a big deal, a game changer. The U.S. carefully considered doing this package, and is not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top. The cartoon is really a good one. It fairly describes Putin's duplicitous actions in Ukraine. Actually, it's no high school production, but quite professional and well thought out! :-)

    Replies: @Beckow

    ….even Australia recently sent some tanks

    How about New Zealand? It will have 0.00001 impact on the war, and you know it.

    …not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top.

    Trust what? US let a trillion dollar investment go down the drain in Afghanistan just last year. Before that in Iraq, Syria…in Vietnam. \$33 billion in 2022 is little, most of it is old equipment that was going to be scrapped. Russians will scrap it for them.

    West is prolonging the suffering. They did the same in Afghanistan where it was basically over by 2010, in Vietnam, etc… The happy-talk mania sells weapons and saves faces. Your enthusiasm is understandable but nobody beats Russia with enthusiasm and media stories. You still don’t get it: Russia sees this as an existential fight, you escalate, they escalate in turn. But enjoy your current respite from bad news…

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow

    I’ll quote sudden death: “ Very clear difference from Vietnam (Afghanistan too in some aspects) as US was the empire waging the war against major grassroot national anti-colonial resistance movement while here it is supporting such movement against RF empire which is now waging war of destruction against Ukrainian national anti-colonial resistance.”

    This war is becoming like USSR massive support for Vietnam, even more so because 1970s USA was a lot stronger than today’s Russia. Russia will be much worse off after this debacle than USA was after Vietnam.

    America lost 58,000 troops over 20 years in Vietnam.

    Russia has already lost at least 10,000 killed after only two months and after taking minimal territory.

    As I wrote earlier, this is a once in a generation opportunity for the USA to just bleed out its Eurasian rival. Every javelin that takes out an expensive tank, or stinger that eliminates a helicopter or low flying plane, is a great ROI. Ukrainians have no choice but to defend their country, now that it is attacked and they have proven that they are willing and able to do so. Diminishing Russia in the process, works out for the Americans also.

    (Russia may have attempted to try something similar by arming Iran but unlike Putin, America wasn’t stupid enough to invade Iran).

    Replies: @Beckow

  536. They did exactly the same in Afghanistan (it was basically over there by 2010), in Vietnam, etc…

    Very clear difference from Vietnam (Afghanistan too in some aspects) as US was the empire waging the war against major grassroot national anti-colonial resistance movement while here it is supporting such movement against RF empire which is now waging war of destruction against Ukrainian national anti-colonial resistance.

  537. A lot of people are skeptical of Myers-Briggs. I’m not unsympathetic. Some of it seems like obvious BS. But maybe that is just camouflage.

    Maybe, it has been secretly used to help facilitate the progressive takeover of institutions. Find the people with openness to experience, neuroticism, etc. and put them into the key organizational positions, like HR.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung. I think that it was you, this was before the unfortunate tragedy going on in Ukraine unraveled. We were discussing Nordic and Germanic origins and ethnogenesis. I watched the 2004 version "Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King", over two nights and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. Good script writing, good acting, enough swashbuckling to add to the excitement and just the right amount of special effects and magic to make it an enjoyable experience. I notice that there are at least two other film versions out there, one directed by Fritz Lang a long time ago. I'll be soon listening to Wagner's grandiose music and looking for the other two film versions to watch too. Did you ever get a chance to finish watching our friend Claudius? It does get better with each installment, IMHO.

    https://www.italo-cinema.de/images/reviews/00000_Reviews/12269_Nibelungen-Teil-2-Kriemhilds-Rache-Die/12269_Nibelungen-Teil-2-Kriemhilds-Rache-Die-screenshot09.png

    Replies: @songbird

  538. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack


    ....even Australia recently sent some tanks
     
    How about New Zealand? It will have 0.00001 impact on the war, and you know it.

    ...not about to see its investment in Ukraine go down the drain. Trust me on this one, Ukraine will come out on top.
     
    Trust what? US let a trillion dollar investment go down the drain in Afghanistan just last year. Before that in Iraq, Syria...in Vietnam. $33 billion in 2022 is little, most of it is old equipment that was going to be scrapped. Russians will scrap it for them.

    West is prolonging the suffering. They did the same in Afghanistan where it was basically over by 2010, in Vietnam, etc... The happy-talk mania sells weapons and saves faces. Your enthusiasm is understandable but nobody beats Russia with enthusiasm and media stories. You still don't get it: Russia sees this as an existential fight, you escalate, they escalate in turn. But enjoy your current respite from bad news...

    Replies: @AP

    I’ll quote sudden death: “ Very clear difference from Vietnam (Afghanistan too in some aspects) as US was the empire waging the war against major grassroot national anti-colonial resistance movement while here it is supporting such movement against RF empire which is now waging war of destruction against Ukrainian national anti-colonial resistance.”

    This war is becoming like USSR massive support for Vietnam, even more so because 1970s USA was a lot stronger than today’s Russia. Russia will be much worse off after this debacle than USA was after Vietnam.

    America lost 58,000 troops over 20 years in Vietnam.

    Russia has already lost at least 10,000 killed after only two months and after taking minimal territory.

    As I wrote earlier, this is a once in a generation opportunity for the USA to just bleed out its Eurasian rival. Every javelin that takes out an expensive tank, or stinger that eliminates a helicopter or low flying plane, is a great ROI. Ukrainians have no choice but to defend their country, now that it is attacked and they have proven that they are willing and able to do so. Diminishing Russia in the process, works out for the Americans also.

    (Russia may have attempted to try something similar by arming Iran but unlike Putin, America wasn’t stupid enough to invade Iran).

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same? Be serious, don't avoid it - face the reality that these kind of wars are very bloody.

    There are two glaring differences with yours and 'sudden death' analogy:

    - Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher. You can argue that is made-up by superior US logistics, but so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.

    - From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized? There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.

    The situation in Ukraine is more similar to a routine Europe minority dispute: Germans left in surrounding countries after WWI, Kosovo, Catalonia, etc... The difference is that a large portion of the Western public is mentally incapable to see human rights when "Russians" are involved. That is a dead end, it won't work, Russians are still way too strong. After 1945 a similar disregard for any rights for "Germans" took place - but it was after Germany lost catastrophically in a war.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev. Only a lot of bloody sacrifices. Your happy-talk doesn't change that.

    Replies: @AP

  539. @songbird
    A lot of people are skeptical of Myers-Briggs. I'm not unsympathetic. Some of it seems like obvious BS. But maybe that is just camouflage.

    Maybe, it has been secretly used to help facilitate the progressive takeover of institutions. Find the people with openness to experience, neuroticism, etc. and put them into the key organizational positions, like HR.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung. I think that it was you, this was before the unfortunate tragedy going on in Ukraine unraveled. We were discussing Nordic and Germanic origins and ethnogenesis. I watched the 2004 version “Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King”, over two nights and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. Good script writing, good acting, enough swashbuckling to add to the excitement and just the right amount of special effects and magic to make it an enjoyable experience. I notice that there are at least two other film versions out there, one directed by Fritz Lang a long time ago. I’ll be soon listening to Wagner’s grandiose music and looking for the other two film versions to watch too. Did you ever get a chance to finish watching our friend Claudius? It does get better with each installment, IMHO.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung.
     
    I believe that was LatW. But I still haven't seen it (or finished I, Claudius) , but am glad you enjoyed it. I did see bits of the Fritz Lang movie quite a long time ago, but never the full thing. It seemed technically interesting.

    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? Or was that AP? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn't do it.

    Last movie that I watched was a modest, old black and white British one, entitled The One that Got Away (1957). Based on the true story of a German fighter pilot who was shot down over England. Eventually, he was transferred to Canada, and made his escape, traveling across the US (which was neutral at the time), down through Latin America and into Brazil, where he caught a freighter to Portugal and made it back to Germany. (though the movie didn't cover most of that). I've always enjoyed POW escape stories, and someday I hope to read the book.

    I can only remember seeing three versions of one movie. Brewster's Millions. I read the book, which I liked the best. Saw the '45 movie (which I thought was the best film version), the Richard Pryor and John Candy one, as well as the Chinese remake. I didn't really enjoy these other two, but it was really fascinating to see the differing political influences on each film.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. Hack

  540. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung. I think that it was you, this was before the unfortunate tragedy going on in Ukraine unraveled. We were discussing Nordic and Germanic origins and ethnogenesis. I watched the 2004 version "Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King", over two nights and thoroughly enjoyed the experience. Good script writing, good acting, enough swashbuckling to add to the excitement and just the right amount of special effects and magic to make it an enjoyable experience. I notice that there are at least two other film versions out there, one directed by Fritz Lang a long time ago. I'll be soon listening to Wagner's grandiose music and looking for the other two film versions to watch too. Did you ever get a chance to finish watching our friend Claudius? It does get better with each installment, IMHO.

    https://www.italo-cinema.de/images/reviews/00000_Reviews/12269_Nibelungen-Teil-2-Kriemhilds-Rache-Die/12269_Nibelungen-Teil-2-Kriemhilds-Rache-Die-screenshot09.png

    Replies: @songbird

    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung.

    I believe that was LatW. But I still haven’t seen it (or finished I, Claudius) , but am glad you enjoyed it. I did see bits of the Fritz Lang movie quite a long time ago, but never the full thing. It seemed technically interesting.

    [MORE]

    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? Or was that AP? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn’t do it.

    Last movie that I watched was a modest, old black and white British one, entitled The One that Got Away (1957). Based on the true story of a German fighter pilot who was shot down over England. Eventually, he was transferred to Canada, and made his escape, traveling across the US (which was neutral at the time), down through Latin America and into Brazil, where he caught a freighter to Portugal and made it back to Germany. (though the movie didn’t cover most of that). I’ve always enjoyed POW escape stories, and someday I hope to read the book.

    I can only remember seeing three versions of one movie. Brewster’s Millions. I read the book, which I liked the best. Saw the ’45 movie (which I thought was the best film version), the Richard Pryor and John Candy one, as well as the Chinese remake. I didn’t really enjoy these other two, but it was really fascinating to see the differing political influences on each film.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @songbird


    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn’t do it.
     
    Sorry to interrupt, but it may have been this movie, With Fire & Sword. I haven't watched in full, but it's commonly featured in many Ukrainian patriotic videos. I didn't want to promote it much, as it has scenes of fighting against the Polish Hussaria, but what the heck. :) The scenes of the Hussars riding are very beautiful.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUk9Oc_HyI8

    Btw.. I haven't yet seen The Northman (still in the Slavic atmosphere), but might watch it soon. Looks good (Northern Euro-male centric with intense visuals, maybe too violent, but that's how they all come these days).

    Mr Hack, I'm glad you liked the German dragon movie. It's from the era when these types of movies were less violent plus it's European made.

    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:

    https://www.livescience.com/royal-british-graves-discovered

    Replies: @songbird, @S

    , @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Thanks to LatW for the intro then to "“Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King”, a good flick!

    "The One That Got Away" sound like something right up my alley too. I'll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book " A Vagabond Journey Around the World: A Narrative of Personal Experience [1910]" that I remember you getting a hold of and reading and enjoying it too. Another film that you'll most likely enjoy, and in this panoramic oeuvre is called the "49th parallel" in America and "The Invaders" in Britain. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Rotten Tomatoes gave it a sterling 4.5 rating, something that it seldom does. Here's their good shorthand synopsis of the film:


    In the early days of World War II, a German U-boat is sunk in Canada's Hudson Bay. Hoping to evade capture, a small band of German soldiers led by commanding officer Lieutenant Hirth (Eric Portman) attempts to cross the border into the United States, which has not yet entered the war and is officially neutral. Along the way, the German soldiers encounter brave men such as French-Canadian fur trapper Johnnie (Laurence Olivier) and soldier Andy Brock (Raymond Massey).
     
    https://prod-images.tcm.com/Master-Profile-Images/49thparallel1941.75486.jpg
    Drama, suspense and intrigue all framed in glorious black and white

    As for the "Ukrainian swashbuckler" that I mentioned before it was a rather new film in the fantasy
    genre called "The Stronghold" that included a time warp tunnel that went back into time 1,000 years. There's some good swashbuckling in it, and good special effects of the protagonists fighting some sort of a large monster. I had recommended it to AP to watch with his family, a kind of Ukrainian Adventure Disney type of film. I don't know if ever did?

    https://youtu.be/wsgKX21tbvM
    In glorious color!

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

  541. @German_reader
    Read some comments by an Austrian military export who says Russia might win its Donbass offensive through attrition, unless Ukraine gets heavy weapons. Sounded much bleaker than the reporting in most of the media. The next few weeks might be critical. If Ukraine can manage to stave off defeat, presumably more weapons supplies might arrive in the summer (though Russia will try to intercept them...apparently they have destroyed or captured a significant amount of previous arms shipments, even those of a type which should be comparatively easy to conceal).

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    The Ukraine soldiers in Donbas are going to be slaughtered or humiliated since they are stars on the internet. Sad. Not a given though–it’s only 96% probable or so.

    That the EU is a Nazi institution at origin, in doctrine, and continuously before 1945 until now is documented in the following:

    The Nazi Roots of the Brussels EU, Paul Anthony Taylor, Aleksandra Niedzwiecki, MatthiasRath, and August Kowalczyk

    https://www.drrathbooks.com/product/the-nazi-roots-of-the-brussels-eu/

    Farrell’s book The Third Way has two terrific photographs of Nazi law professor Walter Hallstein with Konrad Adenauer and Willi Brandt at official functions. Obviously I would have to have studied these questions far more deeply than I have done so to claim them authentically authoritatively factual. The best documents are published in German which I do not read. The EU Central Bank is located in Frankfurt. : )

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    By this logic you will welcome Russian troops marching into Brussels. Not improbable if they mobilize and attack NATO.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  542. Is the bloodhound the top-tier scent dog? Their expected lifespan is only seven years, which IMO, highlights how society hasn’t put enough resources into breeding superior dogs.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird

    Only seven years? That's not long enough! They've got to do something. Imagine being a bloodhound and finding out for the first time that's all the time you've got.

    And speaking of which, 'bloodhound' was the nickname Shirley Manson was given by her fellow young Scotsman whilst she was growing up in school, due to her green eyes and red hair. How could they?

    She always seemed quite alright by me.

    Replies: @songbird

  543. ruble all the way to the 68, 67 range.

    russian oil production down 1 million barrels per day, which will actually help russia in this scenario. US sanctions are a complete backfire.

  544. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    They just go beyond the doormat’s dictum and recognise that allowing a nuclear power to invade and incorporate free sovereign states is rewarding escalation and therefore encouraging it
     
    False alternatives. I have never argued that one should just let Russia gobble up Ukraine. But there's a spectrum of responses. A lot of Westerners, unfortunately including policy-makers, are whipping themelves into a frenzy based on nothing but moral outrage and are arguing that anything but total victory over Russia would be unacceptable. This is dramatically raising the stakes and a serious mistake imo.
    I don't really object to helping to kill Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but it can't be a goal in itself, one must be aware of the risks of escalation and at least try to keep the possibility of a negotiated end to the war open.

    When you’re too stupid to have a point, you get psychoanalysed. Unless you’re too stupid for me even to bother.

     

    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.

    No, you actually seemed reasonably well balanced, so there was no low hanging fruit, but since you feel left out and want a pointer or two, please read on.

    The Western response to the invasion of Ukraine has been far from hysterical. Indeed, given the context, it can only be rationally seen as incremental, measured and extremely calm.

    Instead, your response to the Western response is the source of the hysteria you perceive. Not just your hysteria in how you interpret what you are looking at, but also which parts of the Western response you are attracted to focussing on. You seek out a hysteria that reflects your own suppressed hysteria and don’t even recognise it.

    This is because, by denying the image of the hysterical feminine in yourself, you end up constantly unconsciously drawn to it. Trying to find a lost piece of yourself.

    And since you don’t even know why you are doing this, nevermind that you are doing this, this then leads you to confirm your biases and your unbalanced ideology and leaves you feeling trapped and alienated, and somehow both constricted and outside of things, all at the same time.

    The answer is to own your own hysterical response and see the very measured and incremental programme of gradually increasing sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, maintained in the face of an invasion of a sovereign European country and the flattening of her cities and creation of 6 million refugees in 2 months and the direct nuclear threats from Russian State media organs, as truly from the adults in the room.

    No Western power has directly intervened and Russia has not even been forced into a default. Everything was broadcast and telegraphed and not delivered as a last minute surpise.

    So while Russian assets have been frozen, they have not yet been spent, and weaponry that could have a strategic effect on the true Russian homeland has not yet been gifted.

    You may not agree with these decisions, but they have been thoughtful and considered.

    Instead, it is the sources you have sought out to bask in your own hidden hysteria that have been hysterical, even though they are irrelevant, and your interpretation of it all has made it only more so.

    Now what should actually be interesting and meaningful for you, would be if you sat down and reflected on the many ways in which this mechanism has affected your personal life so far. It won’t be easy, but the reward at the end of such reflection will be worth it. I promise.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I really hope you aren't some kind of therapist in real life. Inflicting this sort of presumptuous psychobabble on commenters here is merely silly, but it could be genuinely harmful when directed at patients seeking help.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  545. Mikel says:

    I don’t know if what the woman in the second video says is true: that they were prevented from leaving the Azovstal factory by the Ukrainians and used as human shields:

    https://southfront.org/testimonies-of-survivors-from-catacombs-of-azovstal-in-mariupol/

    What I do know is that the BBC got the video of that interview but removed for their viewers all the parts where she speaks unfavorably of the Ukrainians:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61294744

    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I’d really like to understand it. Is the Ukrainian/Western cause so weak that it wouldn’t be able to stand on its merits without lies and censorship? Is it not possible to editorially support Ukraine while being more objective and admitting that the Ukrainians can also occasionally do immoral things? Don’t they understand that a lot of people have access to other sources of information and they are giving unnecessary ammunition to the Russians?

    This is following the same script as the Donbass war but it’s bigger this time. Obviously, that the MSM lies and obfuscates on multiple issues is nothing new, that’s to a great extent why Trump won. But in previous wars there wasn’t this unanimous level of equivocation. We actually learned about American war crimes from some of these same MSM outlets and anti-interventionist voices were not suppressed then like now. I am in principle opposed to all conspiracy theories but I also have the feeling that understanding why it is so important for the powers that be to portray this war as a struggle between absolute villains versus immaculate heroes would lead to a better understanding of the world we live in.

    • Replies: @S
    @Mikel


    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I’d really like to understand it.
     
    Because it would detract from and interfere with the demonization of Russia and the Russian people, and the drumming up of the pure hatred they feel is necessary to engage in the murder without mercy of the Russians as a people [ie the complete destruction of Russian peoplehood as it is manifested physically, culturally, and geographically].

    The same was done to Germany, Japan, and Italy in WWII.

    With the world wars it seems the Allies grant themselves a near complete free pass in this regard, while their foes in battle (and particularly in defeat) are held to the strictest standards, and then some. [See link below].

    Since the US/UK came up with the concept of 'crimes against humanity' and 'war crimes', imo it is only proper that they should hold themselves above all others in accountability in this regard, as an example to others.

    That's decidedly not the case.

    [I say this as someone who's perfectly content with a republic as a form of government, with the caveat that it not be based economically and politically upon slavery, whether it be chattel, or, it's even more malignant and destructive manifestation, it's monetization, wage slavery, the latter being the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state.]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II

    Replies: @S

    , @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Hi Mikel,
    I haven't had much time for commenting the last few days but here is the latest update on the dowsing test. I'll email him back today.
    I would say that the ideal site would be a large empty field with something like a single buried straight utility line of known location in it. I would even be happy to do multiples of such a test to rule out dumb luck on the first. They would probably have to be wiling to trust the survey location since utilities are going to look dimly on people digging up their stuff. They generally have pretty good surveys though since they will mark everything out if one is doing excavation.

    So, not much hard progress. Just more groundwork.

    Sean,



    I’ve been thinking about claim since you last emailed me and I think we have a problem.



    I realize your claim is not finding things under cardboard boxes and it is not up to me to ask you to modify your claim.



    If you can find buried utility lines (which, by the way, is not hardly an unusual claim) that can be very helpful. But for $250K we would definitely need proof that what you say is there is really there, i.e., meaning digging it up. And I can’t really see any of us digging up part of Los Angeles, but nobody would be willing to trust any utility company maps.



    Likewise, if we were to bury a target object ourselves, we would know where it is, but I’m not sure how we would camouflage where we did that.



    That is why we have always tested this claim using surrogate targets and concealment.



    However, we remain quite interested in giving you the opportunity to demonstrate your ability in pursuit of the $250K Challenge. Can you suggest any other way we can make this work? The two criteria that must be met: 1) The circumstances are such that you can be successful and 2) We can be sure that you actually found what you say you found and there was no other way, including luck, that you could have found it.



    John K

    CFIIG

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

  546. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader


    So I suppose my low IQ has saved me from your psychoanalytical attention? What a relief.
     
    No, you actually seemed reasonably well balanced, so there was no low hanging fruit, but since you feel left out and want a pointer or two, please read on.

    The Western response to the invasion of Ukraine has been far from hysterical. Indeed, given the context, it can only be rationally seen as incremental, measured and extremely calm.

    Instead, your response to the Western response is the source of the hysteria you perceive. Not just your hysteria in how you interpret what you are looking at, but also which parts of the Western response you are attracted to focussing on. You seek out a hysteria that reflects your own suppressed hysteria and don't even recognise it.

    This is because, by denying the image of the hysterical feminine in yourself, you end up constantly unconsciously drawn to it. Trying to find a lost piece of yourself.

    And since you don't even know why you are doing this, nevermind that you are doing this, this then leads you to confirm your biases and your unbalanced ideology and leaves you feeling trapped and alienated, and somehow both constricted and outside of things, all at the same time.

    The answer is to own your own hysterical response and see the very measured and incremental programme of gradually increasing sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, maintained in the face of an invasion of a sovereign European country and the flattening of her cities and creation of 6 million refugees in 2 months and the direct nuclear threats from Russian State media organs, as truly from the adults in the room.

    No Western power has directly intervened and Russia has not even been forced into a default. Everything was broadcast and telegraphed and not delivered as a last minute surpise.

    So while Russian assets have been frozen, they have not yet been spent, and weaponry that could have a strategic effect on the true Russian homeland has not yet been gifted.

    You may not agree with these decisions, but they have been thoughtful and considered.

    Instead, it is the sources you have sought out to bask in your own hidden hysteria that have been hysterical, even though they are irrelevant, and your interpretation of it all has made it only more so.

    Now what should actually be interesting and meaningful for you, would be if you sat down and reflected on the many ways in which this mechanism has affected your personal life so far. It won't be easy, but the reward at the end of such reflection will be worth it. I promise.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I really hope you aren’t some kind of therapist in real life. Inflicting this sort of presumptuous psychobabble on commenters here is merely silly, but it could be genuinely harmful when directed at patients seeking help.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @German_reader

    Poor darling. Rather than replying with curiosity, questions, addressing the actual argument or anything, you just wrote exactly what someone would write, if caught in the act, and whose sole desperate desire was to persuade everyone (themselves) that what I said could not possibly apply to them.

    Sorry you feel exposed. It is better for you.

    Reminds me of the man in this remarkable video, though I am not comparing you two in any other wayof course.

    You are nothing else like this fat paedo, but it seemed like an opportune moment to share something people might find interesting.

    The video is a great study of a man in shock of capture and having to build convincing lies in the moment.

    Indeed, he builds lies so well that he comes very close to convincing himself, though not his experienced interviewers.

    Probably, he will later come to even believe those lies and see himself as an innocent and righteous victim. Humans are funny, even when sick, and watching denial coalesce into its hardened form is fascinating.



    https://twitter.com/TaylerUSA/status/1521201386972749824?t=6X-srD9I8IsNgL0F5Dn4Og&s=19

  547. S says:
    @songbird
    Is the bloodhound the top-tier scent dog? Their expected lifespan is only seven years, which IMO, highlights how society hasn't put enough resources into breeding superior dogs.

    Replies: @S

    Only seven years? That’s not long enough! They’ve got to do something. Imagine being a bloodhound and finding out for the first time that’s all the time you’ve got.

    And speaking of which, ‘bloodhound’ was the nickname Shirley Manson was given by her fellow young Scotsman whilst she was growing up in school, due to her green eyes and red hair. How could they?

    She always seemed quite alright by me.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    I'm probably a Celtic partisan, but I've always liked red hair. One reason is that it stays true, while blond hair will often darken significantly in adulthood.

    Another reason is that it promotes pale skin. I have nothing against tannables in principal, but it is genetic similarity theory or something. I can't deny that I find pale skin more attractive, and might be wired to do so, based on my ancestors coming from a cloudy, Northern place.

    There was some line in a book I read once, that I can only roughly paraphrase: not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.
    ____________
    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship. Especially Euros, who I think have a special relationship with them. I feel like they have been true friends, unlike various groups who have cynically sought to extract resources out of us, whatever the cost.

    Some of their abilities, like scenting or herding, verge on the magic. But, at the same time, it is easy to see ways they could be improved.

    One could try to give them longer-lasting teeth, kidneys, and joints. Bloat-resistant bellies. Natural resistance against tick-born diseases. Could make their livers more functional, so certain foods are no longer toxic to them.

    Some of them have broken appetite genes, which make them overeat, these could be fixed. Some dogs are really intelligent and can remember the names of over 1000 objects, we could breed them to increase the intelligence of dogs. Any dog that needs extensive training would be more useful if it were smarter and longer-lived.

    I'd much rather put money into dogs than these various other groups that demand tribute.

    Replies: @S, @Barbarossa

  548. Interestingly, the East Asian propensity for hard work seems to have deep historical antecedents.

    Yet it doesn’t appear to have given them any edge, either through early industrialisation nor in the contemporary era in the form of higher incomes.

    Xi’s crackdown on private tutoring industry is unlikely to succeed because the demand is organic and there were already informal work-arounds the ban. Same goes with the notorious “9-9-6” work culture. Japan is infamous for suicides due to overworking.

    For whatever reason, East Asians seem less able to relax yet they gain few actual benefits in trading away their time. A world dominated by them is likely to be less enjoyable but probably not richer nor more innovative.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thulean Friend

    To get in a top Swedish uni you have to beat out say, 100 competitors. To get in a top Chinese uni you have to beat out 10,000 competitors.

    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.

    This is why I don't see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.

    less able to relax
    East Asians have been wealthy for less as long as Europeans. But bear in mind Japan was able to make run at challenging American hegemony in the 80's.

    Your debate with Karlin on Chinese GDP was excellent but it missed out on a few facts:

    - Japan's GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany's in 80's and 90's. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    - Germany joined a currency union and a free trade zone. Japan did not. A CJK version of Euro has been discussed...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Monetary_Unit

    but never implemented; a free trade zone, RCEP was only recently signed.

    - China and SK (Japan not so much) is far ahead of Europe in the 4th Industrial Revolution techs. One advantage of greater population is more training data for the ML algos.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  549. One of the biggest unsolved problems is letting patients getting quality information on how good their actual healthcare professionals are. The differences are often dramatic.

    I’m surprised so little energy is spent on this topic in tech, instead we get endless e-commerce, social media and fintech startups. Seems like an important issue to solve, hard enough to be worthwhile and get paid handsomely for it but not too hard to be unsolvable.

  550. @AP
    @Beckow

    I’ll quote sudden death: “ Very clear difference from Vietnam (Afghanistan too in some aspects) as US was the empire waging the war against major grassroot national anti-colonial resistance movement while here it is supporting such movement against RF empire which is now waging war of destruction against Ukrainian national anti-colonial resistance.”

    This war is becoming like USSR massive support for Vietnam, even more so because 1970s USA was a lot stronger than today’s Russia. Russia will be much worse off after this debacle than USA was after Vietnam.

    America lost 58,000 troops over 20 years in Vietnam.

    Russia has already lost at least 10,000 killed after only two months and after taking minimal territory.

    As I wrote earlier, this is a once in a generation opportunity for the USA to just bleed out its Eurasian rival. Every javelin that takes out an expensive tank, or stinger that eliminates a helicopter or low flying plane, is a great ROI. Ukrainians have no choice but to defend their country, now that it is attacked and they have proven that they are willing and able to do so. Diminishing Russia in the process, works out for the Americans also.

    (Russia may have attempted to try something similar by arming Iran but unlike Putin, America wasn’t stupid enough to invade Iran).

    Replies: @Beckow

    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same? Be serious, don’t avoid it – face the reality that these kind of wars are very bloody.

    There are two glaring differences with yours and ‘sudden death’ analogy:

    – Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher. You can argue that is made-up by superior US logistics, but so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.

    – From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized? There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.

    The situation in Ukraine is more similar to a routine Europe minority dispute: Germans left in surrounding countries after WWI, Kosovo, Catalonia, etc… The difference is that a large portion of the Western public is mentally incapable to see human rights when “Russians” are involved. That is a dead end, it won’t work, Russians are still way too strong. After 1945 a similar disregard for any rights for “Germans” took place – but it was after Germany lost catastrophically in a war.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev. Only a lot of bloody sacrifices. Your happy-talk doesn’t change that.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same?
     
    I was specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher.
     
    And Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO. Vietnam was much further from its Soviet supplier.

    so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.
     
    Russians claim that. Suppliers don't. Though you don't define "large share."

    From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized?
     
    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria, etc.

    There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.
     
    Vietnam was about 10% Catholic and these tended to be pro-Western. Afghanistan had many anti-Taliban non-Pashtuns.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev
     
    Victory for Kiev means keeping lands inhabited by Ukrainians and not having Moscow interfere internally (so, joining the West, keeping a strong military, maintaining nationalist projects etc.). Are you so desperate for Russia to "win" that now Russia can only lose if Moscow is taken? Lol.

    Replies: @Beckow

  551. @Adept
    @songbird

    For whatever it's worth, Barry Longyear wrote a series of stories about a large circus ship that was touring a Galactic Empire, but crashed on a habitable, but uninhabited, planet. Left to fend for themselves, the performers and crew formed their own caste-based government (clowns, foremen, and magicians at the top,) and, a few generations and many misadventures later, were forced to make war.

    These stories were collected in "Circus World" and "City of Baraboo." They're extremely good -- whimsical, original, and thought-provoking. I thought that they were far superior to Enemy Mine, which, though clever at times, was a little bit too saccharine and transparently sentimental for my tastes.

    Replies: @Ray P

    It was a literal Clown World. Reminiscent of Philip K. Dick’s novel Clans of the Alphane Moon where a planet is taken over by the inmates of an asylum who form a caste system based on their mental difficulties. Also there is Showboat World by Jack Vance.

    • Replies: @Adept
    @Ray P

    Thanks. I haven't read much Vance, and I must have missed that PKD story, so now I've got to add 'em to my reading list.

  552. @S
    @songbird

    Only seven years? That's not long enough! They've got to do something. Imagine being a bloodhound and finding out for the first time that's all the time you've got.

    And speaking of which, 'bloodhound' was the nickname Shirley Manson was given by her fellow young Scotsman whilst she was growing up in school, due to her green eyes and red hair. How could they?

    She always seemed quite alright by me.

    Replies: @songbird

    I’m probably a Celtic partisan, but I’ve always liked red hair. One reason is that it stays true, while blond hair will often darken significantly in adulthood.

    [MORE]

    Another reason is that it promotes pale skin. I have nothing against tannables in principal, but it is genetic similarity theory or something. I can’t deny that I find pale skin more attractive, and might be wired to do so, based on my ancestors coming from a cloudy, Northern place.

    There was some line in a book I read once, that I can only roughly paraphrase: not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.
    ____________
    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship. Especially Euros, who I think have a special relationship with them. I feel like they have been true friends, unlike various groups who have cynically sought to extract resources out of us, whatever the cost.

    Some of their abilities, like scenting or herding, verge on the magic. But, at the same time, it is easy to see ways they could be improved.

    One could try to give them longer-lasting teeth, kidneys, and joints. Bloat-resistant bellies. Natural resistance against tick-born diseases. Could make their livers more functional, so certain foods are no longer toxic to them.

    Some of them have broken appetite genes, which make them overeat, these could be fixed. Some dogs are really intelligent and can remember the names of over 1000 objects, we could breed them to increase the intelligence of dogs. Any dog that needs extensive training would be more useful if it were smarter and longer-lived.

    I’d much rather put money into dogs than these various other groups that demand tribute.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.
     
    It is a fact. Pale skin and blue eyes on a woman can be ethereal. I'll forgive the occasional freckle though. ;-)

    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship.
     

    Dogs have been a good friend to us. I'm impressed sometimes how much dogs seem to comprehend. Youtube has plenty of videos of dogs 'freaking out' at the mere word of 'vet' being spoken aloud, while obviously becoming quite happy if they hear 'dog park'.
    , @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    As someone who has had a bit of limited exposure to the dog world I can tell you that not only have we ceased to improve dogs by breeding but that we have actively broken them by breeding. The AKC breed standards have created perverse incentives for conforming dogs to sometimes grotesque features.

    The German Shepherd for example, now generally has terrible hips because of the desirability of a sloped back. The English Bulldog has an incredible number of health complications, including the fact that they cannot give birth naturally. Every Bulldog litter must be delivered by C-section. Rough Coat Collies have become dumber than a box of rocks because of a preference for increasingly narrow heads over their traditional smarts. I could go on and on.

    In every case, a preference for a particular aesthetic breed conformation trumped both health and functionality. Dog breeding is incredible with it's intense specialization for a variety of functions to serve human needs. Now that these needs are often more superfluous, people screw it up by expecting a breed that has been fine tuned for centuries to guard sheep independently for weeks at a time; fighting off wolves and hunting it's own food, to become a suburban pet. It leads to a lot of mess.

  553. @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I really hope you aren't some kind of therapist in real life. Inflicting this sort of presumptuous psychobabble on commenters here is merely silly, but it could be genuinely harmful when directed at patients seeking help.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Poor darling. Rather than replying with curiosity, questions, addressing the actual argument or anything, you just wrote exactly what someone would write, if caught in the act, and whose sole desperate desire was to persuade everyone (themselves) that what I said could not possibly apply to them.

    Sorry you feel exposed. It is better for you.

    Reminds me of the man in this remarkable video, though I am not comparing you two in any other wayof course.

    You are nothing else like this fat paedo, but it seemed like an opportune moment to share something people might find interesting.

    The video is a great study of a man in shock of capture and having to build convincing lies in the moment.

    Indeed, he builds lies so well that he comes very close to convincing himself, though not his experienced interviewers.

    Probably, he will later come to even believe those lies and see himself as an innocent and righteous victim. Humans are funny, even when sick, and watching denial coalesce into its hardened form is fascinating.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: German_reader
  554. S says:
    @Mikel
    I don't know if what the woman in the second video says is true: that they were prevented from leaving the Azovstal factory by the Ukrainians and used as human shields:

    https://southfront.org/testimonies-of-survivors-from-catacombs-of-azovstal-in-mariupol/

    What I do know is that the BBC got the video of that interview but removed for their viewers all the parts where she speaks unfavorably of the Ukrainians:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61294744

    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I'd really like to understand it. Is the Ukrainian/Western cause so weak that it wouldn't be able to stand on its merits without lies and censorship? Is it not possible to editorially support Ukraine while being more objective and admitting that the Ukrainians can also occasionally do immoral things? Don't they understand that a lot of people have access to other sources of information and they are giving unnecessary ammunition to the Russians?

    This is following the same script as the Donbass war but it's bigger this time. Obviously, that the MSM lies and obfuscates on multiple issues is nothing new, that's to a great extent why Trump won. But in previous wars there wasn't this unanimous level of equivocation. We actually learned about American war crimes from some of these same MSM outlets and anti-interventionist voices were not suppressed then like now. I am in principle opposed to all conspiracy theories but I also have the feeling that understanding why it is so important for the powers that be to portray this war as a struggle between absolute villains versus immaculate heroes would lead to a better understanding of the world we live in.

    Replies: @S, @Barbarossa

    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I’d really like to understand it.

    Because it would detract from and interfere with the demonization of Russia and the Russian people, and the drumming up of the pure hatred they feel is necessary to engage in the murder without mercy of the Russians as a people [ie the complete destruction of Russian peoplehood as it is manifested physically, culturally, and geographically].

    The same was done to Germany, Japan, and Italy in WWII.

    With the world wars it seems the Allies grant themselves a near complete free pass in this regard, while their foes in battle (and particularly in defeat) are held to the strictest standards, and then some. [See link below].

    Since the US/UK came up with the concept of ‘crimes against humanity’ and ‘war crimes’, imo it is only proper that they should hold themselves above all others in accountability in this regard, as an example to others.

    That’s decidedly not the case.

    [I say this as someone who’s perfectly content with a republic as a form of government, with the caveat that it not be based economically and politically upon slavery, whether it be chattel, or, it’s even more malignant and destructive manifestation, it’s monetization, wage slavery, the latter being the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state.]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II

    • Replies: @S
    @S

    That should read at the start 'Because telling the whole and impartial truth...'

  555. Rocket Lab caught their booster with a helicopter.

    Only a small rocket – I’m not sure how significant it really is in itself. But I think it is significant in the way that it shows that they are a competent company, and their next, bigger rocket might deliver on its promises, which modestly are only about what the Falcon 9 does now (though not quite as much payload). Neutron is scheduled to launch just two years from now, which means commercial space is really starting to heat up.

  556. @S
    @Mikel


    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I’d really like to understand it.
     
    Because it would detract from and interfere with the demonization of Russia and the Russian people, and the drumming up of the pure hatred they feel is necessary to engage in the murder without mercy of the Russians as a people [ie the complete destruction of Russian peoplehood as it is manifested physically, culturally, and geographically].

    The same was done to Germany, Japan, and Italy in WWII.

    With the world wars it seems the Allies grant themselves a near complete free pass in this regard, while their foes in battle (and particularly in defeat) are held to the strictest standards, and then some. [See link below].

    Since the US/UK came up with the concept of 'crimes against humanity' and 'war crimes', imo it is only proper that they should hold themselves above all others in accountability in this regard, as an example to others.

    That's decidedly not the case.

    [I say this as someone who's perfectly content with a republic as a form of government, with the caveat that it not be based economically and politically upon slavery, whether it be chattel, or, it's even more malignant and destructive manifestation, it's monetization, wage slavery, the latter being the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system, the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multicultural state.]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_war_crimes_during_World_War_II

    Replies: @S

    That should read at the start ‘Because telling the whole and impartial truth…’

  557. S says:
    @songbird
    @S

    I'm probably a Celtic partisan, but I've always liked red hair. One reason is that it stays true, while blond hair will often darken significantly in adulthood.

    Another reason is that it promotes pale skin. I have nothing against tannables in principal, but it is genetic similarity theory or something. I can't deny that I find pale skin more attractive, and might be wired to do so, based on my ancestors coming from a cloudy, Northern place.

    There was some line in a book I read once, that I can only roughly paraphrase: not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.
    ____________
    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship. Especially Euros, who I think have a special relationship with them. I feel like they have been true friends, unlike various groups who have cynically sought to extract resources out of us, whatever the cost.

    Some of their abilities, like scenting or herding, verge on the magic. But, at the same time, it is easy to see ways they could be improved.

    One could try to give them longer-lasting teeth, kidneys, and joints. Bloat-resistant bellies. Natural resistance against tick-born diseases. Could make their livers more functional, so certain foods are no longer toxic to them.

    Some of them have broken appetite genes, which make them overeat, these could be fixed. Some dogs are really intelligent and can remember the names of over 1000 objects, we could breed them to increase the intelligence of dogs. Any dog that needs extensive training would be more useful if it were smarter and longer-lived.

    I'd much rather put money into dogs than these various other groups that demand tribute.

    Replies: @S, @Barbarossa

    not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.

    It is a fact. Pale skin and blue eyes on a woman can be ethereal. I’ll forgive the occasional freckle though. 😉

    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship.

    Dogs have been a good friend to us. I’m impressed sometimes how much dogs seem to comprehend. Youtube has plenty of videos of dogs ‘freaking out’ at the mere word of ‘vet’ being spoken aloud, while obviously becoming quite happy if they hear ‘dog park’.

  558. @Beckow
    @Pixo

    I agree that the real war vs. propaganda dichotomy has been over-used. They are different: real war is about fighting an enemy and propaganda about controlling domestic population. They don't have much to do with each other until eventually in the future they have to be reconciled.

    So far all sides are winning the propaganda war at home: Kiev, Russia, West, by managing their domestic audiences. But in the long run what matters is who wins the real war. Skillful propaganda can mitigate a loss, but it will be too obvious.

    West previously suppressed lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, even Vietnam - but those wars were far away and allowed domestic opposing views while the wars were taking place. That is not the situation today: West has made Ukraine too central to its life and aggressively suppressed opposing views.

    That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine "winning a war" as they redefined gender and free speech. But the endless redefinitions could have harsh mental consequences on the culture.

    Replies: @Johnny Rico

    ‘That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine “winning a war” ‘

    Lame. Lame. Lame. You are already back-pedalling.

    To re-define winning it must first be defined.

    So do that. Now.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Johnny Rico

    These people are painfully lame. Beckow is now implying that Putin gets his big "win" as long as Moscow isn't captured!

    The war is over and Russia has lost. They will eventually go home, which means that Ukraine wins. Any delay is a crime against Russian soldiers and the brave people of Ukraine. It prolongs the carnage for absolutely no point.

    Russia can't even escalate its way out of this, as the West can escalate in support of Ukraine much more.

    Anyone who actually cares about the Russian people will be calling for Putin to call it quits, fake an illness, retire and have someone else take over in an evolutionary programme of renewal.

    Every day that Putin fails to have the courage to do this, is a day that will yet weigh heavier around Russia's neck for the next few generations.

    3 days into the war I wrote the same thing as this last paragraph, as the hopelessness of Russia eventually subjugating Ukraine was already obvious.

    Now, and so many deaths later, it is hopeless for Russia to get even close to a position where they could begin to try.

    Had they quit then, they would have lost very little, but if they quit even very soon, they will lose considerably more, and only more and more and yet more, the later they quit.

    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever. You have the world's largest landmass to build up. Go home and build it.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  559. LatW says:
    @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung.
     
    I believe that was LatW. But I still haven't seen it (or finished I, Claudius) , but am glad you enjoyed it. I did see bits of the Fritz Lang movie quite a long time ago, but never the full thing. It seemed technically interesting.

    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? Or was that AP? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn't do it.

    Last movie that I watched was a modest, old black and white British one, entitled The One that Got Away (1957). Based on the true story of a German fighter pilot who was shot down over England. Eventually, he was transferred to Canada, and made his escape, traveling across the US (which was neutral at the time), down through Latin America and into Brazil, where he caught a freighter to Portugal and made it back to Germany. (though the movie didn't cover most of that). I've always enjoyed POW escape stories, and someday I hope to read the book.

    I can only remember seeing three versions of one movie. Brewster's Millions. I read the book, which I liked the best. Saw the '45 movie (which I thought was the best film version), the Richard Pryor and John Candy one, as well as the Chinese remake. I didn't really enjoy these other two, but it was really fascinating to see the differing political influences on each film.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. Hack

    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn’t do it.

    Sorry to interrupt, but it may have been this movie, With Fire & Sword. I haven’t watched in full, but it’s commonly featured in many Ukrainian patriotic videos. I didn’t want to promote it much, as it has scenes of fighting against the Polish Hussaria, but what the heck. 🙂 The scenes of the Hussars riding are very beautiful.

    Btw.. I haven’t yet seen The Northman (still in the Slavic atmosphere), but might watch it soon. Looks good (Northern Euro-male centric with intense visuals, maybe too violent, but that’s how they all come these days).

    Mr Hack, I’m glad you liked the German dragon movie. It’s from the era when these types of movies were less violent plus it’s European made.

    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:

    https://www.livescience.com/royal-british-graves-discovered

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack, S
    • Replies: @songbird
    @LatW

    Looks something like the Hollywood movie Taras Bulba (1962), which I saw years ago. When I was watching it, I wondered whether there really are giant cliffs in Ukraine and deep rifts that people jump horses over.

    , @S
    @LatW


    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:
     
    From a bit later time period, there was a series (just concluded) called Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon's dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England. Also shows the remnants of Roman civilization still visible here and there at the time.

    A jolly good show!


    https://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/39400000/Vikings-Season-4-Queen-Kwenthrith-King-Ecbert-Judith-and-Aethelwulf-Official-Picture-vikings-tv-series-39475612-1600-1067.jpg

    https://hodderscape.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/The-Vikings-Early-Look-the-vikings-tv-series-33491132-768-512.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikings_(TV_series)

    Replies: @LatW, @AP

  560. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    I wanted to thank you for recommending watching the film version of the Nibelung.
     
    I believe that was LatW. But I still haven't seen it (or finished I, Claudius) , but am glad you enjoyed it. I did see bits of the Fritz Lang movie quite a long time ago, but never the full thing. It seemed technically interesting.

    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? Or was that AP? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn't do it.

    Last movie that I watched was a modest, old black and white British one, entitled The One that Got Away (1957). Based on the true story of a German fighter pilot who was shot down over England. Eventually, he was transferred to Canada, and made his escape, traveling across the US (which was neutral at the time), down through Latin America and into Brazil, where he caught a freighter to Portugal and made it back to Germany. (though the movie didn't cover most of that). I've always enjoyed POW escape stories, and someday I hope to read the book.

    I can only remember seeing three versions of one movie. Brewster's Millions. I read the book, which I liked the best. Saw the '45 movie (which I thought was the best film version), the Richard Pryor and John Candy one, as well as the Chinese remake. I didn't really enjoy these other two, but it was really fascinating to see the differing political influences on each film.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. Hack

    Thanks to LatW for the intro then to ““Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King”, a good flick!

    “The One That Got Away” sound like something right up my alley too. I’ll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book ” A Vagabond Journey Around the World: A Narrative of Personal Experience [1910]” that I remember you getting a hold of and reading and enjoying it too. Another film that you’ll most likely enjoy, and in this panoramic oeuvre is called the “49th parallel” in America and “The Invaders” in Britain. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Rotten Tomatoes gave it a sterling 4.5 rating, something that it seldom does. Here’s their good shorthand synopsis of the film:

    In the early days of World War II, a German U-boat is sunk in Canada’s Hudson Bay. Hoping to evade capture, a small band of German soldiers led by commanding officer Lieutenant Hirth (Eric Portman) attempts to cross the border into the United States, which has not yet entered the war and is officially neutral. Along the way, the German soldiers encounter brave men such as French-Canadian fur trapper Johnnie (Laurence Olivier) and soldier Andy Brock (Raymond Massey).

    Drama, suspense and intrigue all framed in glorious black and white

    As for the “Ukrainian swashbuckler” that I mentioned before it was a rather new film in the fantasy
    genre called “The Stronghold” that included a time warp tunnel that went back into time 1,000 years. There’s some good swashbuckling in it, and good special effects of the protagonists fighting some sort of a large monster. I had recommended it to AP to watch with his family, a kind of Ukrainian Adventure Disney type of film. I don’t know if ever did?

    In glorious color!

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    I thought Cyborgs was alright. I watched it in October 2021.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6JL2tJ57oI

    Good primer for the current thing.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    “The One That Got Away” sound like something right up my alley too. I’ll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book ” A Vagabond Journey Around the World
     
    I was expecting something similar, but the story ends not long after he crosses into the US. Somewhat tragically, he crashed after he returned to Germany, so I'm not sure to what extent the book expands on his journey south.

    (BTW, I once read a book written by an escapee, who suggested that escapees were uniformly liberals. He knew some of these guys, though it is hard to say if he was telling the truth, but, anyway, I thought it was an interesting assertion)

    Still, I did enjoy the film in a moderate way. Somewhat unusual story, as the lead was played by a German actor, and it was largely sympathetic to him. (the film was popular in West Germany). Though, curiously, even though it was many years after the war, I felt the film had a touch of propaganda. Nothing moralistic (thank heavens!), so much as a sort of exaggerated national competency, perhaps, to counterbalance the incompetency of letting him escape. Nice shots of the English countryside.

    And thanks for telling me about those other two films!

    Replies: @S, @Mr. Hack

  561. @Ray P
    @Adept

    It was a literal Clown World. Reminiscent of Philip K. Dick's novel Clans of the Alphane Moon where a planet is taken over by the inmates of an asylum who form a caste system based on their mental difficulties. Also there is Showboat World by Jack Vance.

    Replies: @Adept

    Thanks. I haven’t read much Vance, and I must have missed that PKD story, so now I’ve got to add ’em to my reading list.

  562. @sudden death
    Abrupt chaos ensuing as targets and motives for "denazification" are widening ;)

    JERUSALEM, May 2 (Reuters) - Israel lambasted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday for claiming that Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins, saying it was an "unforgivable" falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.

    In a signal of sharply deteriorating relations with Moscow, the Israeli foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an apology.

    "Such lies are intended to accuse the Jews themselves of the most horrific crimes in history that were committed against them," Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

    "The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people for political purposes must stop immediately," he added.

    Lavrov made the assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to "denazify" Ukraine if the country's own president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was himself Jewish.

    "When they say 'What sort of nazification is this if we are Jews', well I think that Hitler also had Jewish origins, so it means nothing," Lavrov told Rete 4 channel, speaking through an Italian interpreter.

    "For a long time now we've been hearing the wise Jewish people say that the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves," he added.

    Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel's memorial to the six million Jews killed in the Holocaust, said the Russian minister's remarks were "an insult and a severe blow to the victims of the real Nazism".

    Speaking on Kan radio, Dayan said Lavrov was spreading "an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory with no basis in fact".

    The identity of one of Hitler's grandfathers is not known but there has been some speculation, never backed up by any evidence, that he might have been a Jew.

    There was no immediate response for comment from the Russian embassy to Israel or from Lavrov in Moscow.

    Kyiv condemned Lavrov's words, saying his "heinous remarks" were offensive to Zelenskiy, to Israel, Ukraine and Jews.

    "More broadly, they demonstrate that today’s Russia is full of hatred towards other nations," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

    Israeli Foreign Ministry Yair Lapid, whose grandfather died in the Holocaust, said that accusing Jews of being anti-Semites was "the basest level of racism". He also dismissed Lavrov's assertion that pro-Nazi elements held sway over the Ukrainian government and military.

    "The Ukrainians aren't Nazis. Only the Nazis were Nazis and only they dealt with the systematic destruction of the Jewish people," Lapid told the YNet news website.

    A German government spokesperson said the idea Hitler had Jewish heritage was "absurd" propaganda. read more

    Israel has expressed repeated support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of straining relations with Russia, a powerbroker in neighbouring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

    However, relations have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

    However, the Ukrainian president has also run into flak in Israel by looking to draw analogies between the conflict in his country and World War Two. In an address to the Israeli parliament in March, Zelenskiy compared the Russian offensive in Ukraine to Nazi Germany's plan to murder all Jews within its reach during World War Two. read more

    Yad Vashem called his comments "irresponsible," saying they trivialised the historical facts of the Holocaust.
     

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-denounces-lavrovs-hitler-comments-summons-russian-ambassador-2022-05-02/?utm_source=reddit.com

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Mikhail

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Mikhail

    Ukraine should give Lavrov some medal for aiding to increase defensive stuff supplies ;)


    3 May 2022

    Israel reportedly leaning toward sending defensive military aid to Ukraine

    Israeli officials are set to discuss expanding aid to Ukraine, including supplies of defensive military equipment so far withheld by Jerusalem, according to a report Tuesday.

    Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Israel has rejected requests from Kyiv and the West for military equipment such as anti-missile batteries, and only recently agreed to send helmets and flak jackets to civilian rescue and medical forces, part of a policy meant to preserve ties with Russia. Instead it has sent some 100 tons of humanitarian aid and set up a field hospital in western Ukraine for six weeks.

    However, Israeli officials are now expected to support sending Ukraine military aid, albeit at symbolic levels, and still with hopes of keeping its relationship with Russia intact, Haaretz reported Tuesday, citing officials with knowledge of the matter.

    According to a diplomatic official, Israel will not consider sending offensive arms or advanced defensive technology, such as the Iron Dome anti-missile system, but will attempt to find equipment that can be donated without sparking a crisis with Moscow.

    “There’s still no plan to provide offensive weaponry, but only defensive arms,” the source was quoted as saying.

    The report came as ties between Israel and Russia have frayed following a claim by Kremlin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that Adolf Hitler had Jewish heritage, in an attempt to explain Moscow’s attempts to “denazify” Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish.
     
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reportedly-leaning-toward-sending-defensive-military-aid-to-ukraine/
  563. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Thanks to LatW for the intro then to "“Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King”, a good flick!

    "The One That Got Away" sound like something right up my alley too. I'll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book " A Vagabond Journey Around the World: A Narrative of Personal Experience [1910]" that I remember you getting a hold of and reading and enjoying it too. Another film that you'll most likely enjoy, and in this panoramic oeuvre is called the "49th parallel" in America and "The Invaders" in Britain. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Rotten Tomatoes gave it a sterling 4.5 rating, something that it seldom does. Here's their good shorthand synopsis of the film:


    In the early days of World War II, a German U-boat is sunk in Canada's Hudson Bay. Hoping to evade capture, a small band of German soldiers led by commanding officer Lieutenant Hirth (Eric Portman) attempts to cross the border into the United States, which has not yet entered the war and is officially neutral. Along the way, the German soldiers encounter brave men such as French-Canadian fur trapper Johnnie (Laurence Olivier) and soldier Andy Brock (Raymond Massey).
     
    https://prod-images.tcm.com/Master-Profile-Images/49thparallel1941.75486.jpg
    Drama, suspense and intrigue all framed in glorious black and white

    As for the "Ukrainian swashbuckler" that I mentioned before it was a rather new film in the fantasy
    genre called "The Stronghold" that included a time warp tunnel that went back into time 1,000 years. There's some good swashbuckling in it, and good special effects of the protagonists fighting some sort of a large monster. I had recommended it to AP to watch with his family, a kind of Ukrainian Adventure Disney type of film. I don't know if ever did?

    https://youtu.be/wsgKX21tbvM
    In glorious color!

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

    I thought Cyborgs was alright. I watched it in October 2021.

    Good primer for the current thing.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Wokechoke

    I met a young Ukrainian soldier that lived through the Airport battle in Donetsk. Somehow, he ended up living in Phoenix. AZ and was helped by the local Ukrainian Catholic community for about a year. Sad to see a young man all messed up in a wheelchair recovering after traumatic wounds received during military fighting. He never complained though and could be seen in church most every Sunday.

  564. Abortion in Redstan: banned

    Abortion in Moskvastan: rampant

    American exceptionalism is real my friends.

  565. @Thulean Friend
    Interestingly, the East Asian propensity for hard work seems to have deep historical antecedents.

    https://twitter.com/YuzuruKumon/status/1521119267630075904

    Yet it doesn't appear to have given them any edge, either through early industrialisation nor in the contemporary era in the form of higher incomes.

    Xi's crackdown on private tutoring industry is unlikely to succeed because the demand is organic and there were already informal work-arounds the ban. Same goes with the notorious "9-9-6" work culture. Japan is infamous for suicides due to overworking.

    For whatever reason, East Asians seem less able to relax yet they gain few actual benefits in trading away their time. A world dominated by them is likely to be less enjoyable but probably not richer nor more innovative.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    To get in a top Swedish uni you have to beat out say, 100 competitors. To get in a top Chinese uni you have to beat out 10,000 competitors.

    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.

    This is why I don’t see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.

    less able to relax
    East Asians have been wealthy for less as long as Europeans. But bear in mind Japan was able to make run at challenging American hegemony in the 80’s.

    Your debate with Karlin on Chinese GDP was excellent but it missed out on a few facts:

    – Japan’s GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany’s in 80’s and 90’s. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    – Germany joined a currency union and a free trade zone. Japan did not. A CJK version of Euro has been discussed…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Monetary_Unit

    but never implemented; a free trade zone, RCEP was only recently signed.

    – China and SK (Japan not so much) is far ahead of Europe in the 4th Industrial Revolution techs. One advantage of greater population is more training data for the ML algos.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.
     
    Just solidifies my view, since Swedish universities have been doing a fine job educating a workforce capable of creating a first-class country. What your anecdote tells me is that Chinese (and East Asians more broadly) don't value for their own and don't know how to use it efficiently.

    Productivity is the art of doing the most of your time, after all. And a major reason why East Asians are lagging behind the top Western countries is because of low productivity. This is true even for star performers like South Korea.

    This is why I don’t see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.
     
    I think the issue is composition rather than numbers. What happens when a huge fraction of your population are above the age of 50? Perhaps even a majority. It becomes a crushing burden for those in the working-age bracket, unless you cut down pensions down to a bare minimum, which means old-age poverty will be very high. This is the case already in China where any social support for the elderly is barely existing.


    Japan’s GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany’s in 80’s and 90’s. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings
     
    Part of Japan's ascent was built on a massive housing bubble. The most famous example was the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo being worth more than all of Manhattan at its peak. It was never going to last.

    As for the Plaza Accords, sure, but the yen had to come down anyway. I think that issue is overblown. Japan's real problem has been that it has been closed to foreigners. A very large percentage of America's tech titans were immigrants or born to immigrants. Musk himself is an example, the Google guys and lots of Asians (e.g. the co-founder of Sandisk and many others)

    East Asia will do fine, don't get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he's too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.

    At some point, I should probably write up a bigger effortpost of sorts with fully fleshed out data, tables, graphs and footnotes and send it to Unz in an act of utter vanity. But I'm probably too lazy, besides, I'm not going to launch a blogging career any time soon and I'm fully occupied - and satisfied - with what I do for a living for that to change any time soon.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin

  566. @Johnny Rico
    @Beckow

    'That could create a dilemma: somebody will win in Ukraine and odds are that it will be Russia. Then what? Maybe they will redefine “winning a war” '

    Lame. Lame. Lame. You are already back-pedalling.

    To re-define winning it must first be defined.

    So do that. Now.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    These people are painfully lame. Beckow is now implying that Putin gets his big “win” as long as Moscow isn’t captured!

    The war is over and Russia has lost. They will eventually go home, which means that Ukraine wins. Any delay is a crime against Russian soldiers and the brave people of Ukraine. It prolongs the carnage for absolutely no point.

    Russia can’t even escalate its way out of this, as the West can escalate in support of Ukraine much more.

    Anyone who actually cares about the Russian people will be calling for Putin to call it quits, fake an illness, retire and have someone else take over in an evolutionary programme of renewal.

    Every day that Putin fails to have the courage to do this, is a day that will yet weigh heavier around Russia’s neck for the next few generations.

    3 days into the war I wrote the same thing as this last paragraph, as the hopelessness of Russia eventually subjugating Ukraine was already obvious.

    Now, and so many deaths later, it is hopeless for Russia to get even close to a position where they could begin to try.

    Had they quit then, they would have lost very little, but if they quit even very soon, they will lose considerably more, and only more and more and yet more, the later they quit.

    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever. You have the world’s largest landmass to build up. Go home and build it.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever
     
    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don't take everyone here for fucking idiots. I do think this war was a grave mistake and I have severe reservations about Putin, but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they'd never recover from. Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis? Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
    Anyway, don't act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    I'm just glad I'm not Russian or still live in the post soviet space so I'd have to face such choices.

    Replies: @LatW, @Dmitry, @Triteleia Laxa

  567. • Agree: Mikhail
    • Thanks: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Ron Unz

    Who cares about Oliver Stone? He's just another garden variety kremlin stooge. :-(

    , @nickels
    @Ron Unz

    As bad a move as it is, it is their only move left that could move the dial.

    The lies must get bigger and bigger and nuke is the next level of big.

    I predicted this a month ago.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Ron Unz

    Hey Ron,

    When it comes to pop stars taking sides in the Russian/Ukraine war, I think that even you'd agree that it's hard to top Pink Floyd. This is the first new song that they've put out in 8 years, a remake of a very patriotic Ukrainian song:

    https://youtu.be/saEpkcVi1d4

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    @Ron Unz

    The US has no need of deploying a false-flag nuke.

    Try and articulate the positive-US-case for a nuclear engagement. Form those words. See how they look and sound.

    Meanwhile: whether you understand it or not - Russia, is, losing.

    Russia is going to lose this. We know this - so why would we spoil a good thing with a nuke?

    It is near-high hysterical watching writer after writer on this site be wrong, wrong, and stupid-dumb-ignorant-to-high-bloody heaven, wrong - all while pretending to be experts of one kind or another.

    Rich, delicious, dessert.

    Pure entertainment at this point.

  568. @Ron Unz
    https://twitter.com/WamsuttaLives/status/1521208282312060929

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @nickels, @Mr. Hack, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    Who cares about Oliver Stone? He’s just another garden variety kremlin stooge. 🙁

  569. @Mikhail
    @sudden death

    As promised:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04052022-sergey-lavrovs-comments-about-jews-oped/

    Replies: @sudden death

    Ukraine should give Lavrov some medal for aiding to increase defensive stuff supplies 😉

    3 May 2022

    Israel reportedly leaning toward sending defensive military aid to Ukraine

    Israeli officials are set to discuss expanding aid to Ukraine, including supplies of defensive military equipment so far withheld by Jerusalem, according to a report Tuesday.

    Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Israel has rejected requests from Kyiv and the West for military equipment such as anti-missile batteries, and only recently agreed to send helmets and flak jackets to civilian rescue and medical forces, part of a policy meant to preserve ties with Russia. Instead it has sent some 100 tons of humanitarian aid and set up a field hospital in western Ukraine for six weeks.

    However, Israeli officials are now expected to support sending Ukraine military aid, albeit at symbolic levels, and still with hopes of keeping its relationship with Russia intact, Haaretz reported Tuesday, citing officials with knowledge of the matter.

    According to a diplomatic official, Israel will not consider sending offensive arms or advanced defensive technology, such as the Iron Dome anti-missile system, but will attempt to find equipment that can be donated without sparking a crisis with Moscow.

    “There’s still no plan to provide offensive weaponry, but only defensive arms,” the source was quoted as saying.

    The report came as ties between Israel and Russia have frayed following a claim by Kremlin Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that Adolf Hitler had Jewish heritage, in an attempt to explain Moscow’s attempts to “denazify” Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reportedly-leaning-toward-sending-defensive-military-aid-to-ukraine/

  570. Like that aid will be a difference maker. Notwithstanding, it shouldn’t happen on account of what he said, given the Kiev regime’s stance towards Bandera and Russia’s greater significance to the Kiev regime.

  571. @LatW
    @songbird


    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn’t do it.
     
    Sorry to interrupt, but it may have been this movie, With Fire & Sword. I haven't watched in full, but it's commonly featured in many Ukrainian patriotic videos. I didn't want to promote it much, as it has scenes of fighting against the Polish Hussaria, but what the heck. :) The scenes of the Hussars riding are very beautiful.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUk9Oc_HyI8

    Btw.. I haven't yet seen The Northman (still in the Slavic atmosphere), but might watch it soon. Looks good (Northern Euro-male centric with intense visuals, maybe too violent, but that's how they all come these days).

    Mr Hack, I'm glad you liked the German dragon movie. It's from the era when these types of movies were less violent plus it's European made.

    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:

    https://www.livescience.com/royal-british-graves-discovered

    Replies: @songbird, @S

    Looks something like the Hollywood movie Taras Bulba (1962), which I saw years ago. When I was watching it, I wondered whether there really are giant cliffs in Ukraine and deep rifts that people jump horses over.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  572. S says:
    @LatW
    @songbird


    BTW, did you once mention some sword and sorcery movie made in Ukraine? I was trying to think of what it was called, but couldn’t do it.
     
    Sorry to interrupt, but it may have been this movie, With Fire & Sword. I haven't watched in full, but it's commonly featured in many Ukrainian patriotic videos. I didn't want to promote it much, as it has scenes of fighting against the Polish Hussaria, but what the heck. :) The scenes of the Hussars riding are very beautiful.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUk9Oc_HyI8

    Btw.. I haven't yet seen The Northman (still in the Slavic atmosphere), but might watch it soon. Looks good (Northern Euro-male centric with intense visuals, maybe too violent, but that's how they all come these days).

    Mr Hack, I'm glad you liked the German dragon movie. It's from the era when these types of movies were less violent plus it's European made.

    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:

    https://www.livescience.com/royal-british-graves-discovered

    Replies: @songbird, @S

    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:

    From a bit later time period, there was a series (just concluded) called Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon’s dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England. Also shows the remnants of Roman civilization still visible here and there at the time.

    A jolly good show!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikings_(TV_series)

    • Replies: @LatW
    @S


    Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon’s dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England
     
    Of course, this is a famous series. Frankly, it doesn't represent the vikings in the most flattering way (too primitive & brutish). But Clive Standen is really awesome (he's English, btw, not Nordic), and I do almost like his character, Rollo, better in the end where he becomes the Duke of Normandy (dressed in a mantle sitting regally).

    The Last Kingdom is also really cool, especially King Aflred.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @AP
    @S

    The female protagonist in the first Vikings is a diaspora Ukrainian (parents were nationalists, she was sent to Ukrainian camps, and didn't speak English until age 8) from Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katheryn_Winnick

  573. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Thanks to LatW for the intro then to "“Dark Kingdom: The Dragon King”, a good flick!

    "The One That Got Away" sound like something right up my alley too. I'll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book " A Vagabond Journey Around the World: A Narrative of Personal Experience [1910]" that I remember you getting a hold of and reading and enjoying it too. Another film that you'll most likely enjoy, and in this panoramic oeuvre is called the "49th parallel" in America and "The Invaders" in Britain. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Rotten Tomatoes gave it a sterling 4.5 rating, something that it seldom does. Here's their good shorthand synopsis of the film:


    In the early days of World War II, a German U-boat is sunk in Canada's Hudson Bay. Hoping to evade capture, a small band of German soldiers led by commanding officer Lieutenant Hirth (Eric Portman) attempts to cross the border into the United States, which has not yet entered the war and is officially neutral. Along the way, the German soldiers encounter brave men such as French-Canadian fur trapper Johnnie (Laurence Olivier) and soldier Andy Brock (Raymond Massey).
     
    https://prod-images.tcm.com/Master-Profile-Images/49thparallel1941.75486.jpg
    Drama, suspense and intrigue all framed in glorious black and white

    As for the "Ukrainian swashbuckler" that I mentioned before it was a rather new film in the fantasy
    genre called "The Stronghold" that included a time warp tunnel that went back into time 1,000 years. There's some good swashbuckling in it, and good special effects of the protagonists fighting some sort of a large monster. I had recommended it to AP to watch with his family, a kind of Ukrainian Adventure Disney type of film. I don't know if ever did?

    https://youtu.be/wsgKX21tbvM
    In glorious color!

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @songbird

    “The One That Got Away” sound like something right up my alley too. I’ll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book ” A Vagabond Journey Around the World

    I was expecting something similar, but the story ends not long after he crosses into the US. Somewhat tragically, he crashed after he returned to Germany, so I’m not sure to what extent the book expands on his journey south.

    (BTW, I once read a book written by an escapee, who suggested that escapees were uniformly liberals. He knew some of these guys, though it is hard to say if he was telling the truth, but, anyway, I thought it was an interesting assertion)

    Still, I did enjoy the film in a moderate way. Somewhat unusual story, as the lead was played by a German actor, and it was largely sympathetic to him. (the film was popular in West Germany). Though, curiously, even though it was many years after the war, I felt the film had a touch of propaganda. Nothing moralistic (thank heavens!), so much as a sort of exaggerated national competency, perhaps, to counterbalance the incompetency of letting him escape. Nice shots of the English countryside.

    And thanks for telling me about those other two films!

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird

    It's a tight little flick. I felt bad for the crippled English officer character who pulled the gun on him after he'd almost let him get away in the British plane. You could sense the humiliation on his part.

    There was a similar story about a German WWII POW post war (supposedly) having escaped his captors in the Soviet Union. As he made his way out of the huge country, he had various traveling companions, and even panned for gold in Russian rivers. He wrote a book about it upon his return to West Germany.

    While The One That Got Away is amazing, but true, I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    I watched "The One That Got Away" last night. I'd generously give it 7 stars (out of 10) based on the more than adequate acting of Hardy Krueger starring in the main role of Franz von Werra. Once he jumps off the train in Canada and begins his march towards the US border you can settle into watching some good stuff. Having lived in Minnesota for a majority of my life, I could relate to the cold Canadian temperatures he found himself in. He most certainly would have had his ears frozen off due to his lack of a hat or scarf though. Having to muster up his last bit of strength to get the stolen boat into the river and later to climb the latter to the top of the hill near the house, was some very good acting, IMHO. Of course, as you point out the movie felt to be incomplete without a depiction of Von Werra's later exploits in Mexico and Central America. If you ever do read the book, by all means let us know if these parts are adequately covered within. Overall, though, I wouldn't go higher than 7 stars, perhaps only 6. Worth a roll of the dice in either case.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  574. @Ron Unz
    https://twitter.com/WamsuttaLives/status/1521208282312060929

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @nickels, @Mr. Hack, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    As bad a move as it is, it is their only move left that could move the dial.

    The lies must get bigger and bigger and nuke is the next level of big.

    I predicted this a month ago.

  575. S says:
    @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    “The One That Got Away” sound like something right up my alley too. I’ll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book ” A Vagabond Journey Around the World
     
    I was expecting something similar, but the story ends not long after he crosses into the US. Somewhat tragically, he crashed after he returned to Germany, so I'm not sure to what extent the book expands on his journey south.

    (BTW, I once read a book written by an escapee, who suggested that escapees were uniformly liberals. He knew some of these guys, though it is hard to say if he was telling the truth, but, anyway, I thought it was an interesting assertion)

    Still, I did enjoy the film in a moderate way. Somewhat unusual story, as the lead was played by a German actor, and it was largely sympathetic to him. (the film was popular in West Germany). Though, curiously, even though it was many years after the war, I felt the film had a touch of propaganda. Nothing moralistic (thank heavens!), so much as a sort of exaggerated national competency, perhaps, to counterbalance the incompetency of letting him escape. Nice shots of the English countryside.

    And thanks for telling me about those other two films!

    Replies: @S, @Mr. Hack

    It’s a tight little flick. I felt bad for the crippled English officer character who pulled the gun on him after he’d almost let him get away in the British plane. You could sense the humiliation on his part.

    There was a similar story about a German WWII POW post war (supposedly) having escaped his captors in the Soviet Union. As he made his way out of the huge country, he had various traveling companions, and even panned for gold in Russian rivers. He wrote a book about it upon his return to West Germany.

    While The One That Got Away is amazing, but true, I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S


    I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.
     
    As Far as My Feet Will Carry Me? Never read it, but the way you mention it as being unbelievable reminds me of a similar book by a Pole (Sławomir Rawicz) The Long Walk. Now, there is an unbelievable book, at one point his group is trailed by Yetis.

    I've read a number of POW escape books, and enjoyed a few, but my favorite is still the first I read, The Great Escape.

    Replies: @S

  576. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Johnny Rico

    These people are painfully lame. Beckow is now implying that Putin gets his big "win" as long as Moscow isn't captured!

    The war is over and Russia has lost. They will eventually go home, which means that Ukraine wins. Any delay is a crime against Russian soldiers and the brave people of Ukraine. It prolongs the carnage for absolutely no point.

    Russia can't even escalate its way out of this, as the West can escalate in support of Ukraine much more.

    Anyone who actually cares about the Russian people will be calling for Putin to call it quits, fake an illness, retire and have someone else take over in an evolutionary programme of renewal.

    Every day that Putin fails to have the courage to do this, is a day that will yet weigh heavier around Russia's neck for the next few generations.

    3 days into the war I wrote the same thing as this last paragraph, as the hopelessness of Russia eventually subjugating Ukraine was already obvious.

    Now, and so many deaths later, it is hopeless for Russia to get even close to a position where they could begin to try.

    Had they quit then, they would have lost very little, but if they quit even very soon, they will lose considerably more, and only more and more and yet more, the later they quit.

    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever. You have the world's largest landmass to build up. Go home and build it.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever

    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots. I do think this war was a grave mistake and I have severe reservations about Putin, but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from. Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis? Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    I’m just glad I’m not Russian or still live in the post soviet space so I’d have to face such choices.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Yevardian


    I have severe reservations about Putin
     
    The one behind this idea could've been Patrushev. He's always been a real hawk. It's possible that Putin is quite ill.

    but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from
     
    It might be a catastrophe either way. Doing some kind of a Volksturm in Donbas with thousands of poorly trained and poorly equipped troops against well equipped and well motivated Ukrainians (if the weapons arrive) will be quite tragic (to put it mildly). In the meantime, they will just keep bombing the ancient Rus lands (they will bomb until they are forced to capitulate doing incredible damage, creating immense hatred against themselves & further alienating themselves, if there's any space for that even left). And the Ramstein coalition will not let up.

    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    You're right, the majority are rallying around the letter Z. However, there are some that are assembling under the white-light blue-white flag, yes, few, but they are out there.

    Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
     
    On their soil, yes. Are Russians on their own soil? Is Zaporizhzhya & Dnipro their soil?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    could be a catastrophe they’d never recover
     
    This war itself not so bad for Russia, don't exaggerate.

    It will accelerate many of the negative trends of the last 30 years. Less will invest in future industries and more of the skilled workers will emigrate (because the authorities use this as excuse for pre-planned transition from pseudo-democracy to more traditional authoritarian system), but people will still buy the raw materials, diamonds, aluminium, oil, gas, etc, so the country will not be in famine or economic collapse. It will be future of low or flatlining growth and rising costs (although this has been the reality since 2008, as the economy is smaller today than it was then).

    In terms of Russian politics, the "hybrid" pseudo-democracy, with fake opposition politicians and media, of the last decades, has been more psychologically comfortable than openly authoritarian government, but it introduces so much falsity into the culture, where everything becomes a show. Maybe it is not completely tragic for them to change away from this model.

    The tragedy of this war is directly, for the population of East Ukraine, as well as suburbs North of Kiev, and for those mostly villagers which are contractors in the army. It's for the people killed and injured, or which lose their houses and cities. For people in Russia, it's not such a bad situation, but in Ukraine..

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian


    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots.
     
    I love Russia and I love Russians, and I am partially against this war for this reason. You can see my comment history for proof.

    from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from.
     
    Russia has already lost the war.

    As for what happens to Russia once they leave their state of shock, disbelief and denial, it is up to them.

    No one is threatening their homeland.

    They have total agency.

    But the longer this defeat drags on, the worse the position from which they will start for a project of national renewal.

    And national renewal is what they need. It is clear from their disastrous military performance that the Putin project has been a dead end for quite some time. Perhaps 2010?

    Better that they get on with it now, on their vast landmass, as an organised evolution, rather than dirtily trying to scrub a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine and risk revolution and collapse.

    I don't know exactly what they should do, federalise, put Yandex in charge and take over the EU from within (?), but they have more than enough talent, if they actually try.


    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    It isn't being a "traitor" to oppose a foreign war which is bleeding out your military, destroying your economy and building a moral debt that your people may languish in guilt over for generations.

    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.
     
    No, I am fed up with this ridiculous Russian narrative of poor passive Russians always being victims.

    Russia could have done infinitely better in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Plenty of countries did and lacked Russian resources.

    Indeed, no one forced Russia into anything. They were entirely unthreatened. They had one hundred percent effective sovereignty.

    In other words, everything that happened in Russia is and was entirely their responsibility.

    Now, the point of admitting responsibility and agency is not so that you can be condemned, but so that you can do better next time and not ignorantly or pathetically repeat your mistakes.

    Critically, the narrative that Russians currently offer for their invasion of Ukraine is directly linked to the world accepting their self-pitying bullsh*t on the 90s. They claim that they couldn't help themselves, that they were helpless, in the face of Ukrainian "provocation." What a load of f*cking toxic nonsense.

    This is Jussie Smollett level stuff, or better heard from Amber Heard. It is pathological. I'd accept it from Congolese or Nigerians or whatever, indeed people like Mugabe specialised in this idiocy, but then I do not extend them the expectations that I have of civilised adults. For they are not, but Russians are.

    For Russians: live in reality. Stop with the pitiful historical excuses. Or histrionically latching onto whatever tiny "provocation" you can ruminate over, and actually be a civilised modern nation. Love requires it. This pathetic self-hatred of zero responsibility is killing your country. Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn't be so hard. You have infinite land, amazing resources and a people who only need to be empowered to get stuff done, while being inspired. This is straightforward stuff.

    Also, please don't take my talk of "responsibility" for a moral argument. I am not a moral being and do not make moral arguments. I am just talking about agency and avoiding self-deception. That is all.

    Replies: @Sean, @LatW, @Yevardian

  577. LatW says:
    @S
    @LatW


    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:
     
    From a bit later time period, there was a series (just concluded) called Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon's dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England. Also shows the remnants of Roman civilization still visible here and there at the time.

    A jolly good show!


    https://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/39400000/Vikings-Season-4-Queen-Kwenthrith-King-Ecbert-Judith-and-Aethelwulf-Official-Picture-vikings-tv-series-39475612-1600-1067.jpg

    https://hodderscape.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/The-Vikings-Early-Look-the-vikings-tv-series-33491132-768-512.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikings_(TV_series)

    Replies: @LatW, @AP

    Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon’s dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England

    Of course, this is a famous series. Frankly, it doesn’t represent the vikings in the most flattering way (too primitive & brutish). But Clive Standen is really awesome (he’s English, btw, not Nordic), and I do almost like his character, Rollo, better in the end where he becomes the Duke of Normandy (dressed in a mantle sitting regally).

    The Last Kingdom is also really cool, especially King Aflred.

    • Thanks: S
    • Replies: @songbird
    @LatW

    Haven't seen any of the recent Viking stuff, but I'm fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak.

    I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist, just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West. These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism? (I will sound like The Guardian.) Or an acknowledgement that the days of emigrating Euros and strong men will return soon.

    Or, maybe, I am making too much of it, (and half of it is filled with lesbian PoCs) and all the bugmen are watching, and it is just copycatting a success.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @LatW

  578. Mikel says:

    It looks like AK’s twitter account has vanished, most likely cancelled, which is surprising hadn’t happened earlier. Anyone having great hopes with Musk is going to have a Trump-like disappointment, I think. The rot is too deep. And besides, which pro-free speech billionaire is going to buy google, ms, apple, paypal, fb, yahoo and all the rest?

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Mikel

    imho would be quite surprising if it was cancelled by outside initiative - the only "controversial" things lately were just many quick Z victory predictions withs lots of "shocks&disbeliefs" on repeat, but it was more embarrasing to AK himself than some forbidden polit-incorrect knowledge somehow worth blocking.

    Replies: @sudden death

  579. I actually agree with Beckow on this point, any war, especially one this side, has clear winners and losers. Anyway, he’s Slovak, so whatever happens, his country will be fine. Though I don’t understand Romanians cheering on Russia and especially not Russians agitating for their own country’s defeat.

    On an unrelated note I fully endorse Thorfinnsson’s opinion that any non-female adult using an emoji can’t be considered fully human. Please stop using them. I appeal to Unz to ban them.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Yevardian


    Though I don’t understand Romanians cheering on Russia and especially not Russians agitating for their own country’s defeat.
     
    Perhaps relating to the ethnic Romanians in Bukovina.
  580. LatW says:
    @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever
     
    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don't take everyone here for fucking idiots. I do think this war was a grave mistake and I have severe reservations about Putin, but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they'd never recover from. Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis? Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
    Anyway, don't act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    I'm just glad I'm not Russian or still live in the post soviet space so I'd have to face such choices.

    Replies: @LatW, @Dmitry, @Triteleia Laxa

    I have severe reservations about Putin

    The one behind this idea could’ve been Patrushev. He’s always been a real hawk. It’s possible that Putin is quite ill.

    but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from

    It might be a catastrophe either way. Doing some kind of a Volksturm in Donbas with thousands of poorly trained and poorly equipped troops against well equipped and well motivated Ukrainians (if the weapons arrive) will be quite tragic (to put it mildly). In the meantime, they will just keep bombing the ancient Rus lands (they will bomb until they are forced to capitulate doing incredible damage, creating immense hatred against themselves & further alienating themselves, if there’s any space for that even left). And the Ramstein coalition will not let up.

    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?

    You’re right, the majority are rallying around the letter Z. However, there are some that are assembling under the white-light blue-white flag, yes, few, but they are out there.

    Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.

    On their soil, yes. Are Russians on their own soil? Is Zaporizhzhya & Dnipro their soil?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW


    rallying around the letter Z
     
    This reminds of the famous Jewish oligarch Simanovsky. He has various quarrels with local government.

    Every some months, he seems to be making his employees of the shopping malls, perform more and more kremlinbot "spontaneous flashmobs".

    So, during the war now, he was making the employees that work in one of his malls in Ekaterinburg, doing this kind of "flashmob".

    It's just capitalism, but with a "feudal face", as exists in culture without civilized worker protection. The employees of the local aristocrat, have to perform this, as part of their job working in his shopping mall. After all, they are lucky they work in the shopping mall, and just have to do some rituals for their owner (there are people with worse jobs than Simanovsky employees, just ask the people in Buryat villages, that are driving as contract tankers in a T-72).

    Is this "rallying" as a spontaneous expression of workers' sentiments? Well, to the extent that workers shouldn't have sentiments, except of their owners.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2AKJJtq8OU

  581. @S
    @songbird

    It's a tight little flick. I felt bad for the crippled English officer character who pulled the gun on him after he'd almost let him get away in the British plane. You could sense the humiliation on his part.

    There was a similar story about a German WWII POW post war (supposedly) having escaped his captors in the Soviet Union. As he made his way out of the huge country, he had various traveling companions, and even panned for gold in Russian rivers. He wrote a book about it upon his return to West Germany.

    While The One That Got Away is amazing, but true, I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.

    Replies: @songbird

    I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.

    As Far as My Feet Will Carry Me? Never read it, but the way you mention it as being unbelievable reminds me of a similar book by a Pole (Sławomir Rawicz) The Long Walk. Now, there is an unbelievable book, at one point his group is trailed by Yetis.

    I’ve read a number of POW escape books, and enjoyed a few, but my favorite is still the first I read, The Great Escape.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    As Far as My Feet Will Carry Me?
     
    Yes, that's the one.

    Never read it, but the way you mention it as being unbelievable reminds me of a similar book by a Pole (Sławomir Rawicz) The Long Walk. Now, there is an unbelievable book, at one point his group is trailed by Yetis.
     
    Euros need to teach their young to not be so credulous. :-)

    I’ve read a number of POW escape books, and enjoyed a few, but my favorite is still the first I read, The Great Escape.
     
    Saw the movie, but never read the book.
  582. @Mikel
    It looks like AK’s twitter account has vanished, most likely cancelled, which is surprising hadn’t happened earlier. Anyone having great hopes with Musk is going to have a Trump-like disappointment, I think. The rot is too deep. And besides, which pro-free speech billionaire is going to buy google, ms, apple, paypal, fb, yahoo and all the rest?

    Replies: @sudden death

    imho would be quite surprising if it was cancelled by outside initiative – the only “controversial” things lately were just many quick Z victory predictions withs lots of “shocks&disbeliefs” on repeat, but it was more embarrasing to AK himself than some forbidden polit-incorrect knowledge somehow worth blocking.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Here it is, if we get new updates, seems it would be just a voluntary change of adress handle:

    https://twitter.com/powerfultakes

    Replies: @Mikel

  583. @Yevardian
    I actually agree with Beckow on this point, any war, especially one this side, has clear winners and losers. Anyway, he's Slovak, so whatever happens, his country will be fine. Though I don't understand Romanians cheering on Russia and especially not Russians agitating for their own country's defeat.

    On an unrelated note I fully endorse Thorfinnsson's opinion that any non-female adult using an emoji can't be considered fully human. Please stop using them. I appeal to Unz to ban them.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Though I don’t understand Romanians cheering on Russia and especially not Russians agitating for their own country’s defeat.

    Perhaps relating to the ethnic Romanians in Bukovina.

  584. @sudden death
    @Mikel

    imho would be quite surprising if it was cancelled by outside initiative - the only "controversial" things lately were just many quick Z victory predictions withs lots of "shocks&disbeliefs" on repeat, but it was more embarrasing to AK himself than some forbidden polit-incorrect knowledge somehow worth blocking.

    Replies: @sudden death

    Here it is, if we get new updates, seems it would be just a voluntary change of adress handle:

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @sudden death

    Yes, he went offline after a change of handle and now someone else has taken his old one. So false alarm re censorship but strange development.

    My skepticism wrt Musk stands anyway. AK's friends @RWApodcast were recently suspended and now claim to still be shadow-banned after their reinstatement. Unlike in previous wars, all the action now is on Telegram. You can't follow a war in real time through people who are self-censoring or about to be censored any time. Twitter has lost that space for good, I think.

  585. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same? Be serious, don't avoid it - face the reality that these kind of wars are very bloody.

    There are two glaring differences with yours and 'sudden death' analogy:

    - Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher. You can argue that is made-up by superior US logistics, but so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.

    - From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized? There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.

    The situation in Ukraine is more similar to a routine Europe minority dispute: Germans left in surrounding countries after WWI, Kosovo, Catalonia, etc... The difference is that a large portion of the Western public is mentally incapable to see human rights when "Russians" are involved. That is a dead end, it won't work, Russians are still way too strong. After 1945 a similar disregard for any rights for "Germans" took place - but it was after Germany lost catastrophically in a war.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev. Only a lot of bloody sacrifices. Your happy-talk doesn't change that.

    Replies: @AP

    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same?

    I was specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher.

    And Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO. Vietnam was much further from its Soviet supplier.

    so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.

    Russians claim that. Suppliers don’t. Though you don’t define “large share.”

    From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized?

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria, etc.

    There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.

    Vietnam was about 10% Catholic and these tended to be pro-Western. Afghanistan had many anti-Taliban non-Pashtuns.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev

    Victory for Kiev means keeping lands inhabited by Ukrainians and not having Moscow interfere internally (so, joining the West, keeping a strong military, maintaining nationalist projects etc.). Are you so desperate for Russia to “win” that now Russia can only lose if Moscow is taken? Lol.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    ...specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.
     
    And I added that the toll on the defending country could be very high. Will Ukraine will be better off with that level of sacrifices? You didn't answer. Ignoring it doesn't make it go away.

    Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO.
     
    Unless Nato enters the war its ability to protect supplies to Kiev is limited. They are both next door but Russia can blow up stuff at will, and Nato can only smuggle weapons through what will be a free fire zone. "Large share" refers to the depots that have already been destroyed as acknowledged by Kiev. Is a continuum, but I agree an unknown.

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria
     
    Which one? Ulster is in UK with Protestants having full rights, French were expelled...which model do you suggest? I think Hungarians in Romani or Swedes in Finland are another model that fits. Even French (Walloons) in Belgium and Switzerland.

    Keeping "lands inhabited by Ukrainians" is a rational goal and I am not sure Russia - or anyone - has ever objected to that. But you have to define it. Define what it means having a full control: for example does the full sovereignity mean that Kiev can place Nato missiles and bases on the border with Russia? That's what the war is about. If Kiev relents and agrees to a form of neutrality in effect Russia will win and Nato will lose. In my view Kiev would also win in that case, but people like you disagree for some absurd reasons that you can't explain.

    Replies: @AP

  586. @LatW
    @S


    Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon’s dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England
     
    Of course, this is a famous series. Frankly, it doesn't represent the vikings in the most flattering way (too primitive & brutish). But Clive Standen is really awesome (he's English, btw, not Nordic), and I do almost like his character, Rollo, better in the end where he becomes the Duke of Normandy (dressed in a mantle sitting regally).

    The Last Kingdom is also really cool, especially King Aflred.

    Replies: @songbird

    Haven’t seen any of the recent Viking stuff, but I’m fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak.

    I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist, just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West. These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism? (I will sound like The Guardian.) Or an acknowledgement that the days of emigrating Euros and strong men will return soon.

    Or, maybe, I am making too much of it, (and half of it is filled with lesbian PoCs) and all the bugmen are watching, and it is just copycatting a success.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @songbird


    These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?
     
    You're onto something. There has been a huge surge in Viking-related films and series in recent years. The Northman is but the latest example.

    I haven't watched it but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid "red meat" (e.g. no PoC, women are portrayed as untrustworthy etc). It got a pretty big budget, so it doesn't gel with the paranoid narrative that the evil Hollywood is out to get the white man etc.

    Replies: @S

    , @LatW
    @songbird


    I’m fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak. [...] I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist
     
    It might be a kind of a safe space for those who prefer that type of a culture in an unadulterated form.



    Yes, it does seem there are more of these than before and there is definitely a proliferation of viking models on Instagram (both male & female). The only change I see from how they used to be before is that there is more braided hair, cornrows (I hope it's not some cultural appropriation from you know who) and more tats. The original look used to be more natural (which is what I prefer, just flowing hair and jewelry). And less graphic violence which makes N.Euros look like savages with brutal instincts (I guess that's what the audience wants). The older ones seem to be centered more about the heroes quest vs just "conquering".

    Another thing that I find interesting in the recent ones is the incorporation of Slavic themes. It seems the older ones were more purely German / NW Euro focused. In this last one, the Northman, there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason? Just speculating.

    Actually, the Vikings series starts out with Ragnar killing a Latvian dude (which really ticked me off). And it looks like the Northman has a scene where an Old Prussian / Wend boy gets killed while fishing in a boat, which is making me rethink whether I want to watch it. Or maybe I should just get over it.

    just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West
     
    Gee, I hope not, it's disturbing even to think about it from that angle. It might be that zombies and aliens in movies are the enemies that Americans don't have in real life. Nobody can really reach the coasts of America, except made up aliens and zombies.

    Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?
     
    Possibly. Might be one of the few outlet these days for them.

    Replies: @songbird

  587. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @Thulean Friend

    To get in a top Swedish uni you have to beat out say, 100 competitors. To get in a top Chinese uni you have to beat out 10,000 competitors.

    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.

    This is why I don't see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.

    less able to relax
    East Asians have been wealthy for less as long as Europeans. But bear in mind Japan was able to make run at challenging American hegemony in the 80's.

    Your debate with Karlin on Chinese GDP was excellent but it missed out on a few facts:

    - Japan's GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany's in 80's and 90's. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

    - Germany joined a currency union and a free trade zone. Japan did not. A CJK version of Euro has been discussed...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Monetary_Unit

    but never implemented; a free trade zone, RCEP was only recently signed.

    - China and SK (Japan not so much) is far ahead of Europe in the 4th Industrial Revolution techs. One advantage of greater population is more training data for the ML algos.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.

    Just solidifies my view, since Swedish universities have been doing a fine job educating a workforce capable of creating a first-class country. What your anecdote tells me is that Chinese (and East Asians more broadly) don’t value for their own and don’t know how to use it efficiently.

    Productivity is the art of doing the most of your time, after all. And a major reason why East Asians are lagging behind the top Western countries is because of low productivity. This is true even for star performers like South Korea.

    This is why I don’t see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.

    I think the issue is composition rather than numbers. What happens when a huge fraction of your population are above the age of 50? Perhaps even a majority. It becomes a crushing burden for those in the working-age bracket, unless you cut down pensions down to a bare minimum, which means old-age poverty will be very high. This is the case already in China where any social support for the elderly is barely existing.

    Japan’s GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany’s in 80’s and 90’s. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings

    Part of Japan’s ascent was built on a massive housing bubble. The most famous example was the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo being worth more than all of Manhattan at its peak. It was never going to last.

    As for the Plaza Accords, sure, but the yen had to come down anyway. I think that issue is overblown. Japan’s real problem has been that it has been closed to foreigners. A very large percentage of America’s tech titans were immigrants or born to immigrants. Musk himself is an example, the Google guys and lots of Asians (e.g. the co-founder of Sandisk and many others)

    East Asia will do fine, don’t get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he’s too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.

    At some point, I should probably write up a bigger effortpost of sorts with fully fleshed out data, tables, graphs and footnotes and send it to Unz in an act of utter vanity. But I’m probably too lazy, besides, I’m not going to launch a blogging career any time soon and I’m fully occupied – and satisfied – with what I do for a living for that to change any time soon.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    because of low productivity
     
    I'm not knowledgeable about the economic topic, but as non-economist, I wonder how accurately economists compare productivity, across different cultures. When Tokyo salarymen are drinking with their boss in a karaoke bar or sleeping in office, do you include these as worker hours in the denominator? I wonder about siestas in Mediterranean countries? If you include this, productivity would decrease, exclude this and it would increase.
    -

    As a result of being in a Western industry where employees have a lot of autonomy and independent tasks, I actually seem to choose to have long hours at lower productivity for my own tasks.

    I could enjoy procrastinating for so many hours wasting time or chilling. But then I like to remain in the office, sometimes all night drinking coffee, to finish something. But if you eliminated "procrastination time", my productivity per worker hour would increase. However I wouldn't necessarily produce more per week. It would also not match my preferences, which is to work for very many hours, with procrastination and relaxing time integrated.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Thulean Friend


    East Asia will do fine, don’t get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he’s too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.
     
    Merely affirming something over and over again does not make it true.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

  588. @S
    @LatW


    I noticed some of you were talking about the diet of medieval British kings and wanted to note that in the beginning of the year they found a major burial site of 5-7th century British royals & nobles:
     
    From a bit later time period, there was a series (just concluded) called Vikings which explores in part the Anglo-Saxon's dealing with the Viking invasion of the various kingdoms in present day England. Also shows the remnants of Roman civilization still visible here and there at the time.

    A jolly good show!


    https://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/39400000/Vikings-Season-4-Queen-Kwenthrith-King-Ecbert-Judith-and-Aethelwulf-Official-Picture-vikings-tv-series-39475612-1600-1067.jpg

    https://hodderscape.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/The-Vikings-Early-Look-the-vikings-tv-series-33491132-768-512.jpg

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikings_(TV_series)

    Replies: @LatW, @AP

    The female protagonist in the first Vikings is a diaspora Ukrainian (parents were nationalists, she was sent to Ukrainian camps, and didn’t speak English until age 8) from Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katheryn_Winnick

    • Thanks: S
  589. @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever
     
    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don't take everyone here for fucking idiots. I do think this war was a grave mistake and I have severe reservations about Putin, but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they'd never recover from. Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis? Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
    Anyway, don't act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    I'm just glad I'm not Russian or still live in the post soviet space so I'd have to face such choices.

    Replies: @LatW, @Dmitry, @Triteleia Laxa

    could be a catastrophe they’d never recover

    This war itself not so bad for Russia, don’t exaggerate.

    It will accelerate many of the negative trends of the last 30 years. Less will invest in future industries and more of the skilled workers will emigrate (because the authorities use this as excuse for pre-planned transition from pseudo-democracy to more traditional authoritarian system), but people will still buy the raw materials, diamonds, aluminium, oil, gas, etc, so the country will not be in famine or economic collapse. It will be future of low or flatlining growth and rising costs (although this has been the reality since 2008, as the economy is smaller today than it was then).

    In terms of Russian politics, the “hybrid” pseudo-democracy, with fake opposition politicians and media, of the last decades, has been more psychologically comfortable than openly authoritarian government, but it introduces so much falsity into the culture, where everything becomes a show. Maybe it is not completely tragic for them to change away from this model.

    The tragedy of this war is directly, for the population of East Ukraine, as well as suburbs North of Kiev, and for those mostly villagers which are contractors in the army. It’s for the people killed and injured, or which lose their houses and cities. For people in Russia, it’s not such a bad situation, but in Ukraine..

  590. @songbird
    @LatW

    Haven't seen any of the recent Viking stuff, but I'm fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak.

    I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist, just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West. These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism? (I will sound like The Guardian.) Or an acknowledgement that the days of emigrating Euros and strong men will return soon.

    Or, maybe, I am making too much of it, (and half of it is filled with lesbian PoCs) and all the bugmen are watching, and it is just copycatting a success.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @LatW

    These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?

    You’re onto something. There has been a huge surge in Viking-related films and series in recent years. The Northman is but the latest example.

    I haven’t watched it but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid “red meat” (e.g. no PoC, women are portrayed as untrustworthy etc). It got a pretty big budget, so it doesn’t gel with the paranoid narrative that the evil Hollywood is out to get the white man etc.

    • Replies: @S
    @Thulean Friend


    I haven’t watched it [The Northman] but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid “red meat” (e.g. no PoC...
     
    Geez. I don't know. Maybe it's neither a 'right' or 'left' thing. Maybe they just let slip a reflection of the historical truth of the time that in general you just didn't see 'PoC' in that part of the world.

    But, if it will make you feel any better about it, below are some pics and a link to a 1978 movie of practically the same name, The Norseman, which does includes an ahistorical 'PoC'.

    The movie was appropriately enough a complete bomb.

    Lest any forget what the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state is about at it's core, with its wage slavery (ie the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system') of which 'the refugees' simply act as a cynical flimsy fig leaf for:

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule!

    https://www.cinemedioevo.net/Film/LO/norseman07.jpg


    ‘..the immigrants usually serve three main functions: cheap labor to replace native groups; settlement on the ‘frontier’ (periphery); and control over the natives and their land. These dynamics generally result in the maintenance of hegemony..’
     


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dWha7-dCZbE/TpsJe1tb8tI/AAAAAAAABZo/aerQ-DeaYgI/s1600/Norseman-003.jpg


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Norseman

    Replies: @songbird

  591. Censorship is not about right vs left. It’s about who conforms and who does not. The US empire, through its Big Tech proxies, is now going after independent left-leaning media outlets.

    I hope people understand that vapid calls to “just build your own platforms” is not a long-term solution. There has to be legislation to prevent these things from happening, yet only folks like Taibbi will give you the story. NYT is never going to write about it.

    I hope Ron pays attention to this and has every single base covered. There could be some kind of organised attack on this website from any direction. Anyone who dissents is a target.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Thulean Friend

    Crypto may not be censor-proof but at least it is the home ground for the censor-conscious and libertarian. Might also go the Gab way and built your own payment option that is tied to your platform.

  592. @LatW
    @Yevardian


    I have severe reservations about Putin
     
    The one behind this idea could've been Patrushev. He's always been a real hawk. It's possible that Putin is quite ill.

    but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from
     
    It might be a catastrophe either way. Doing some kind of a Volksturm in Donbas with thousands of poorly trained and poorly equipped troops against well equipped and well motivated Ukrainians (if the weapons arrive) will be quite tragic (to put it mildly). In the meantime, they will just keep bombing the ancient Rus lands (they will bomb until they are forced to capitulate doing incredible damage, creating immense hatred against themselves & further alienating themselves, if there's any space for that even left). And the Ramstein coalition will not let up.

    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    You're right, the majority are rallying around the letter Z. However, there are some that are assembling under the white-light blue-white flag, yes, few, but they are out there.

    Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
     
    On their soil, yes. Are Russians on their own soil? Is Zaporizhzhya & Dnipro their soil?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    rallying around the letter Z

    This reminds of the famous Jewish oligarch Simanovsky. He has various quarrels with local government.

    Every some months, he seems to be making his employees of the shopping malls, perform more and more kremlinbot “spontaneous flashmobs”.

    So, during the war now, he was making the employees that work in one of his malls in Ekaterinburg, doing this kind of “flashmob”.

    It’s just capitalism, but with a “feudal face”, as exists in culture without civilized worker protection. The employees of the local aristocrat, have to perform this, as part of their job working in his shopping mall. After all, they are lucky they work in the shopping mall, and just have to do some rituals for their owner (there are people with worse jobs than Simanovsky employees, just ask the people in Buryat villages, that are driving as contract tankers in a T-72).

    Is this “rallying” as a spontaneous expression of workers’ sentiments? Well, to the extent that workers shouldn’t have sentiments, except of their owners.

  593. S says:
    @songbird
    @S


    I have to think the latter story of the German POW escaping Soviet Russia is amazing, but preposterous.
     
    As Far as My Feet Will Carry Me? Never read it, but the way you mention it as being unbelievable reminds me of a similar book by a Pole (Sławomir Rawicz) The Long Walk. Now, there is an unbelievable book, at one point his group is trailed by Yetis.

    I've read a number of POW escape books, and enjoyed a few, but my favorite is still the first I read, The Great Escape.

    Replies: @S

    As Far as My Feet Will Carry Me?

    Yes, that’s the one.

    Never read it, but the way you mention it as being unbelievable reminds me of a similar book by a Pole (Sławomir Rawicz) The Long Walk. Now, there is an unbelievable book, at one point his group is trailed by Yetis.

    Euros need to teach their young to not be so credulous. 🙂

    I’ve read a number of POW escape books, and enjoyed a few, but my favorite is still the first I read, The Great Escape.

    Saw the movie, but never read the book.

  594. @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.
     
    Just solidifies my view, since Swedish universities have been doing a fine job educating a workforce capable of creating a first-class country. What your anecdote tells me is that Chinese (and East Asians more broadly) don't value for their own and don't know how to use it efficiently.

    Productivity is the art of doing the most of your time, after all. And a major reason why East Asians are lagging behind the top Western countries is because of low productivity. This is true even for star performers like South Korea.

    This is why I don’t see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.
     
    I think the issue is composition rather than numbers. What happens when a huge fraction of your population are above the age of 50? Perhaps even a majority. It becomes a crushing burden for those in the working-age bracket, unless you cut down pensions down to a bare minimum, which means old-age poverty will be very high. This is the case already in China where any social support for the elderly is barely existing.


    Japan’s GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany’s in 80’s and 90’s. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings
     
    Part of Japan's ascent was built on a massive housing bubble. The most famous example was the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo being worth more than all of Manhattan at its peak. It was never going to last.

    As for the Plaza Accords, sure, but the yen had to come down anyway. I think that issue is overblown. Japan's real problem has been that it has been closed to foreigners. A very large percentage of America's tech titans were immigrants or born to immigrants. Musk himself is an example, the Google guys and lots of Asians (e.g. the co-founder of Sandisk and many others)

    East Asia will do fine, don't get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he's too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.

    At some point, I should probably write up a bigger effortpost of sorts with fully fleshed out data, tables, graphs and footnotes and send it to Unz in an act of utter vanity. But I'm probably too lazy, besides, I'm not going to launch a blogging career any time soon and I'm fully occupied - and satisfied - with what I do for a living for that to change any time soon.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin

    because of low productivity

    I’m not knowledgeable about the economic topic, but as non-economist, I wonder how accurately economists compare productivity, across different cultures. When Tokyo salarymen are drinking with their boss in a karaoke bar or sleeping in office, do you include these as worker hours in the denominator? I wonder about siestas in Mediterranean countries? If you include this, productivity would decrease, exclude this and it would increase.

    As a result of being in a Western industry where employees have a lot of autonomy and independent tasks, I actually seem to choose to have long hours at lower productivity for my own tasks.

    I could enjoy procrastinating for so many hours wasting time or chilling. But then I like to remain in the office, sometimes all night drinking coffee, to finish something. But if you eliminated “procrastination time”, my productivity per worker hour would increase. However I wouldn’t necessarily produce more per week. It would also not match my preferences, which is to work for very many hours, with procrastination and relaxing time integrated.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Dmitry


    I wonder how accurately economists compare productivity, across different cultures. When Tokyo salarymen are drinking with their boss in a karaoke bar or sleeping in office, do you include these as worker hours in the denominator?
     
    At my firm, our sales team are expected to show up for important clients and wine and dine them. Ditto for potential partners. Is this fundamentally different from the function of a drinking session at a local karaoke bar in Tokyo? Sounds to me like a cultural variation of the same phenomenon.

    Siesta is harder to defend, since it's literally just sleeping and is inherently solitary and non-productive. You could at least make an argument for bonding with clients/partners over karaoke. Perhaps this is why southern Europe has lagged behind?

    ---

    (The boring, robotic answer is that productivity is calculated as a residual, but the standard way of calculation hasn't changed since the 1950s. There is wide-ranging debate on how we can better measure it, particularly in the digital era where "intangibles" are often greatly valued everywhere but in the statistics.

    Think of Google Maps and similar services. Most people would be willing to pay quite a lot to have such features if they weren't available for free, yet its intrinsic value isn't easily captured because it leaves no physical footprint and its usage is wide across many services, let alone personal use. How do you precisely measure the economic value-add of billions of people getting from A to B more efficiently, especially in their spare time? It's a non-trivial question. And there are countless others, closely interrelated.)

    ---

    I could enjoy procrastinating for so many hours wasting time or chilling. But then I like to remain in the office, sometimes all night drinking coffee, to finish something. But if you eliminated “procrastination time”, my productivity per worker hour would increase. However I wouldn’t necessarily produce more per week. It would also not match my preferences, which is to work for very many hours, with procrastination and relaxing time integrated.
     
    My assumption is that you're paid per month rather than hour, because if not then I'd fire your manager (while secretly being jealous of you for being able to get away with this).

    Jokes aside, as long as you do what's expected of you, I don't see the issue. The extra electricity cost is likely to be marginal. You're essentially allocating your leisure time to your workplace, but that's simply your personal choice.

    Is it so much different from being hyper-efficient at the office and then going home and essentially chilling online for hours? If the total output of work is the same, then it's purely a distribution issue at its core rather than a question of efficiency.
  595. @Wokechoke
    @Mr. Hack

    I thought Cyborgs was alright. I watched it in October 2021.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6JL2tJ57oI

    Good primer for the current thing.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I met a young Ukrainian soldier that lived through the Airport battle in Donetsk. Somehow, he ended up living in Phoenix. AZ and was helped by the local Ukrainian Catholic community for about a year. Sad to see a young man all messed up in a wheelchair recovering after traumatic wounds received during military fighting. He never complained though and could be seen in church most every Sunday.

    • Agree: LatW
  596. LatW says:
    @songbird
    @LatW

    Haven't seen any of the recent Viking stuff, but I'm fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak.

    I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist, just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West. These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism? (I will sound like The Guardian.) Or an acknowledgement that the days of emigrating Euros and strong men will return soon.

    Or, maybe, I am making too much of it, (and half of it is filled with lesbian PoCs) and all the bugmen are watching, and it is just copycatting a success.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @LatW

    I’m fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak. […] I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist

    It might be a kind of a safe space for those who prefer that type of a culture in an unadulterated form.

    [MORE]

    Yes, it does seem there are more of these than before and there is definitely a proliferation of viking models on Instagram (both male & female). The only change I see from how they used to be before is that there is more braided hair, cornrows (I hope it’s not some cultural appropriation from you know who) and more tats. The original look used to be more natural (which is what I prefer, just flowing hair and jewelry). And less graphic violence which makes N.Euros look like savages with brutal instincts (I guess that’s what the audience wants). The older ones seem to be centered more about the heroes quest vs just “conquering”.

    Another thing that I find interesting in the recent ones is the incorporation of Slavic themes. It seems the older ones were more purely German / NW Euro focused. In this last one, the Northman, there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason? Just speculating.

    Actually, the Vikings series starts out with Ragnar killing a Latvian dude (which really ticked me off). And it looks like the Northman has a scene where an Old Prussian / Wend boy gets killed while fishing in a boat, which is making me rethink whether I want to watch it. Or maybe I should just get over it.

    just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West

    Gee, I hope not, it’s disturbing even to think about it from that angle. It might be that zombies and aliens in movies are the enemies that Americans don’t have in real life. Nobody can really reach the coasts of America, except made up aliens and zombies.

    Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?

    Possibly. Might be one of the few outlet these days for them.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @LatW


    there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason?
     
    I don't know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths. (Now, this is kind of an interesting thing here - I don't think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West, but it is notable how they created a video game did, albeit one based on novels.)

    To a certain extent, nationalists seem to have gotten into the books. I only read one, and frankly I was disappointed in it. To me, it seemed really woke. (And people would laugh at me for saying that). But it seemed to have strong feminist themes, and I didn't like how it seemed to emphasize racial conflict and tensions between humans and elves (even though maybe that would be realistic.)

    Definitely not a fan of cornrows. Reminds me of a girl I once knew who went on a winter vacation in Ecuador and came back deeply tanned and with cornrows. Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.

    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts. I heard an historian once say that Vikings and Irish were pretty similar, only different in the way that they would treat churches and the clergy.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.

    Replies: @S, @LatW

  597. @Thulean Friend
    Censorship is not about right vs left. It's about who conforms and who does not. The US empire, through its Big Tech proxies, is now going after independent left-leaning media outlets.

    https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1521548301451120641

    I hope people understand that vapid calls to "just build your own platforms" is not a long-term solution. There has to be legislation to prevent these things from happening, yet only folks like Taibbi will give you the story. NYT is never going to write about it.

    I hope Ron pays attention to this and has every single base covered. There could be some kind of organised attack on this website from any direction. Anyone who dissents is a target.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Crypto may not be censor-proof but at least it is the home ground for the censor-conscious and libertarian. Might also go the Gab way and built your own payment option that is tied to your platform.

  598. @Triteleia Laxa
    What's the point of this war for Russia?

    Anything, but taking almost of Ukraine makes, even in Russian terms, attempts at supposed "demilitarisation" and "denazification" counter-productive.

    Ukraine will be a lot more NATO, a lot more anti-Russian and a lot more militarised after this war than before, especially the longer it goes on.

    As for territory, Russia has plenty of land already, and they controlled the bits of Ukraine that were most appropriate (Crimea etc) before the war. There was very little fighting and Ukrainians were sort of accepting of it.

    But now Ukraine will not accept it and Russia will have an eternal insurgency to deal with, and a constant conventional threat. This is a nightmare scenario for Russia.

    And it is extremely obvious that they have no ability to take Kyiv, so...yeah, well, what's the point?

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO, not because they are not bloodthirsty enough, but because they are too weak and incompetent?

    To murder some Ukrainians?

    To destroy the Russian military?

    To forge a united Ukrainian nation in the fires of war?

    To make NATO 10 times stronger and to empower Western militarists?

    To make the Iraq war look good?

    To discredit their own ruling system?

    To destroy the election chances of Putin-sympathetic Western nationalist leaders?

    To make a joke out of Russia's gas station economy?

    What?

    Maybe even to lose to Ukraine?

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Wokechoke, @Derer

    To prove that they were never a serious threat to NATO,

    Are you getting your info on NATO capabilities from NATO headquarters or Taliban fighters?

  599. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    The Ukraine soldiers in Donbas are going to be slaughtered or humiliated since they are stars on the internet. Sad. Not a given though--it's only 96% probable or so.

    That the EU is a Nazi institution at origin, in doctrine, and continuously before 1945 until now is documented in the following:

    The Nazi Roots of the Brussels EU, Paul Anthony Taylor, Aleksandra Niedzwiecki, MatthiasRath, and August Kowalczyk

    https://www.drrathbooks.com/product/the-nazi-roots-of-the-brussels-eu/

    Farrell's book The Third Way has two terrific photographs of Nazi law professor Walter Hallstein with Konrad Adenauer and Willi Brandt at official functions. Obviously I would have to have studied these questions far more deeply than I have done so to claim them authentically authoritatively factual. The best documents are published in German which I do not read. The EU Central Bank is located in Frankfurt. : )

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    By this logic you will welcome Russian troops marching into Brussels. Not improbable if they mobilize and attack NATO.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Yellowface Anon

    Nah. Not my fight. I am not rooting for anybody to win. I sort of root for nobody to get slaughtered. Also I want a pony or a goat or a lexus.

    You don't agree that we are all fascists now? I thought you posted exactly that.

    https://graymirror.substack.com/p/monarchism-and-fascism-today

  600. @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    It would be darkly funny, if atomics turned geodeterministic geography against progressivism. I suppose the Netherlands would also be screwed.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Nuclear Weapons’ strategic value is a total reset, regional or global.

  601. Strange how no one talks about Russia taking over Kherson, Melitopol, Berydansk, Nova Khakhova unopposed. The land bridge to Crimea would have been priority number one for me.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @LondonBob

    At short notice resource allocation would have been a problem. Also the terrain favours blitzkrieg. The big question is why the route to Crimea wasn't blown, bridges and all. Treachery?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  602. @Beckow
    @Wokechoke


    ...Goes to show what was really going on in the background. Cutting out Leningrad/St Petersburg was a planned event.
     
    That is the only conclusion one can make. Finns will deny it, but what happened speaks for itself: Finland joined Nazis in WWII in their attack on Russia.

    Today the unwillingness to take seriously the potential security threats to Russia on its border also shows the "background" - the unstated goals. It is easy to call Russia paranoid - all security concerns can be called paranoid - but as before WWII the logic of self-protection requires that one can't trust the enemy. US wouldn't trust China, Russia or Iran in Quebec, same with UK and Ireland. Why would it be different for Russia?

    Replies: @Wielgus

    During the Cold War I think we can guess what would have happened if Mexico had had a change of government after Maidin-like events and the new government decided to write into the constitution that it would aspire to join the Warsaw Pact.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Wielgus

    Or in actual history, Chile under Allende.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  603. @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    During the Cold War I think we can guess what would have happened if Mexico had had a change of government after Maidin-like events and the new government decided to write into the constitution that it would aspire to join the Warsaw Pact.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Or in actual history, Chile under Allende.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Yellowface Anon

    Also in actual history, left-wing students there being slaughtered in 1968 for protesting against the upcoming Olympic Games. Aspects of it (false flag snipers) even suggest Maidan.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tlatelolco_massacre

  604. @Yellowface Anon
    @Wielgus

    Or in actual history, Chile under Allende.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    Also in actual history, left-wing students there being slaughtered in 1968 for protesting against the upcoming Olympic Games. Aspects of it (false flag snipers) even suggest Maidan.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tlatelolco_massacre

  605. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    “The One That Got Away” sound like something right up my alley too. I’ll be sure to watch it. For some reason it sounds vaguely familiar to that book ” A Vagabond Journey Around the World
     
    I was expecting something similar, but the story ends not long after he crosses into the US. Somewhat tragically, he crashed after he returned to Germany, so I'm not sure to what extent the book expands on his journey south.

    (BTW, I once read a book written by an escapee, who suggested that escapees were uniformly liberals. He knew some of these guys, though it is hard to say if he was telling the truth, but, anyway, I thought it was an interesting assertion)

    Still, I did enjoy the film in a moderate way. Somewhat unusual story, as the lead was played by a German actor, and it was largely sympathetic to him. (the film was popular in West Germany). Though, curiously, even though it was many years after the war, I felt the film had a touch of propaganda. Nothing moralistic (thank heavens!), so much as a sort of exaggerated national competency, perhaps, to counterbalance the incompetency of letting him escape. Nice shots of the English countryside.

    And thanks for telling me about those other two films!

    Replies: @S, @Mr. Hack

    I watched “The One That Got Away” last night. I’d generously give it 7 stars (out of 10) based on the more than adequate acting of Hardy Krueger starring in the main role of Franz von Werra. Once he jumps off the train in Canada and begins his march towards the US border you can settle into watching some good stuff. Having lived in Minnesota for a majority of my life, I could relate to the cold Canadian temperatures he found himself in. He most certainly would have had his ears frozen off due to his lack of a hat or scarf though. Having to muster up his last bit of strength to get the stolen boat into the river and later to climb the latter to the top of the hill near the house, was some very good acting, IMHO. Of course, as you point out the movie felt to be incomplete without a depiction of Von Werra’s later exploits in Mexico and Central America. If you ever do read the book, by all means let us know if these parts are adequately covered within. Overall, though, I wouldn’t go higher than 7 stars, perhaps only 6. Worth a roll of the dice in either case.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    I found this really cool film poster that I just love:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f7/The_One_That_Got_Away_film_poster.jpg

    Replies: @songbird

  606. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    I watched "The One That Got Away" last night. I'd generously give it 7 stars (out of 10) based on the more than adequate acting of Hardy Krueger starring in the main role of Franz von Werra. Once he jumps off the train in Canada and begins his march towards the US border you can settle into watching some good stuff. Having lived in Minnesota for a majority of my life, I could relate to the cold Canadian temperatures he found himself in. He most certainly would have had his ears frozen off due to his lack of a hat or scarf though. Having to muster up his last bit of strength to get the stolen boat into the river and later to climb the latter to the top of the hill near the house, was some very good acting, IMHO. Of course, as you point out the movie felt to be incomplete without a depiction of Von Werra's later exploits in Mexico and Central America. If you ever do read the book, by all means let us know if these parts are adequately covered within. Overall, though, I wouldn't go higher than 7 stars, perhaps only 6. Worth a roll of the dice in either case.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I found this really cool film poster that I just love:

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack

    Wow, that is a great poster! Too often today, they go with complexity, rather than balance. And it is too often photoshopped stills, added together, instead of drawings or paintings. I think a small part of it has to do with politics - if it is a diverse cast, they want to show it off. And so, we get away from these great, "pregnant moments", that have a sort of feng shui, but feature only one character.

    As to the movie, I would rank it in between The Great Escape (better) and Reach for the Sky (not as good, IMO, because kind of corny). Still haven't seen The Colditz Story, but I'll definitely watch it one day.

  607. @AP
    @Beckow


    Both Vietnam and Afghanistan lost over 1 million people in that struggle, are you suggesting that Ukraine does the same?
     
    I was specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    Russia is literally next door so its ability to fight is higher.
     
    And Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO. Vietnam was much further from its Soviet supplier.

    so far large share of the weapons supplied has been destroyed.
     
    Russians claim that. Suppliers don't. Though you don't define "large share."

    From a colonial point of view it is not clear who is who here. Who are the Donbass Russians? Colonizers or colonized?
     
    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria, etc.

    There is a substantial Russian minority population in Ukraine and that was not the case for Americans in Vietnam or Afghanistan.
     
    Vietnam was about 10% Catholic and these tended to be pro-Western. Afghanistan had many anti-Taliban non-Pashtuns.

    Unless you somehow see the same eventually happening here, with Moscow being taken and a full surrender, there will be no victory for Kiev
     
    Victory for Kiev means keeping lands inhabited by Ukrainians and not having Moscow interfere internally (so, joining the West, keeping a strong military, maintaining nationalist projects etc.). Are you so desperate for Russia to "win" that now Russia can only lose if Moscow is taken? Lol.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    And I added that the toll on the defending country could be very high. Will Ukraine will be better off with that level of sacrifices? You didn’t answer. Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away.

    Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO.

    Unless Nato enters the war its ability to protect supplies to Kiev is limited. They are both next door but Russia can blow up stuff at will, and Nato can only smuggle weapons through what will be a free fire zone. “Large share” refers to the depots that have already been destroyed as acknowledged by Kiev. Is a continuum, but I agree an unknown.

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria

    Which one? Ulster is in UK with Protestants having full rights, French were expelled…which model do you suggest? I think Hungarians in Romani or Swedes in Finland are another model that fits. Even French (Walloons) in Belgium and Switzerland.

    Keeping “lands inhabited by Ukrainians” is a rational goal and I am not sure Russia – or anyone – has ever objected to that. But you have to define it. Define what it means having a full control: for example does the full sovereignity mean that Kiev can place Nato missiles and bases on the border with Russia? That’s what the war is about. If Kiev relents and agrees to a form of neutrality in effect Russia will win and Nato will lose. In my view Kiev would also win in that case, but people like you disagree for some absurd reasons that you can’t explain.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    …specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    And I added that the toll on the defending country could be very high.
     

    We do not know if it would be so high in Ukraine's case. Evacuation of civilians is easier for Ukrainians than it was for Vietnamese. It is up to the Ukrainian people in Ukraine it decide if it is worth it, I won't judge for them but will support them. So far they have chosen resistance to subjugation.

    Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO.

    Unless Nato enters the war its ability to protect supplies to Kiev is limited. They are both next door but Russia can blow up stuff at will
     

    LOL, this is akin to "Russia will conquer Ukraine in 1 week." Russia has demonstrated that it is incapable of blowing up everything at will, most gets through.

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria

    Which one? Ulster is in UK
     

    Indeed, Ulster is in UK but rest of Ireland is Irish. So Donetsk and Crimea may stay in Russia but rest of Ukraine will be Ukraine.

    OTOH French and Kharkis were erased from Algeria.

    So those are the two likely options, depending on how the battles go. Probably it will be the first one.


    I think Hungarians in Romani or Swedes in Finland are another model that fits
     
    After Russian invasion and killings of Ukrainians, those are very unlikely.

    If Kiev relents and agrees to a form of neutrality in effect Russia will win and Nato will lose. In my view Kiev would also win in that case

     

    Neutrality is only acceptable if it is limited to military (so EU is not excluded) and if it includes guarantees with teeth and/or credible native deterrent (large Ukrainian army bristling with modern antiaircraft defenses). Russia demanded both neutrality and demilitirazation, it demanded a helpless Ukraine with no allies (most likely, for later consumption).
  608. @Yellowface Anon
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    By this logic you will welcome Russian troops marching into Brussels. Not improbable if they mobilize and attack NATO.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Nah. Not my fight. I am not rooting for anybody to win. I sort of root for nobody to get slaughtered. Also I want a pony or a goat or a lexus.

    You don’t agree that we are all fascists now? I thought you posted exactly that.

    https://graymirror.substack.com/p/monarchism-and-fascism-today

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  609. Sean says:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/04/us-lend-lease-act-ukraine-1941-second-world-war The sums of money being contemplated in Washington [are]… one third of Ukraine’s prewar GDP. If it is approved by Congress, on top of other western aid, it will mean that we are financing nothing less than a total war. After 1942, the great Soviet counter-offensives were carried by Lend-Lease trucks{…] Lend-Lease in March to the Atlantic charter in August 1941 and, by December, to Pearl Harbor and the US entry into the war. Providing aid to both China and the British empire, Lend-Lease was a crucial step in turning what was originally a separate Japanese war on China and a German war in Europe into a world war. […] If the US Congress is now launching a new Lend-Lease programme, the question of whether escalation is part of the plan must come into consideration.[…] Churchill played into when he appealed to the US in February 1941 not to enter the war, but to give Britain and its empire the tools “and we will finish the job”. But the very generosity and scale of Lend-Lease, and the commitment that implied, brought into stark relief the fact that the US was paying for others to fight the battle on its behalf. […] If that is the plan and Putin allows us to stick to it…

    Brendan Simms and Charlie Laderman show in their book Hitler’s American Gamble, an extraordinary reconstruction of the fateful week following Pearl Harbor, the immediate reaction to the Japanese attack was to suspend Lend-Lease shipments; London and Moscow were horrified. It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation. Then, as now, the motives of those antagonists are obscure

    .

    I'm puzzled by the people who simultaneously: 1) think Putin and his inner circle are irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering; and 2) are also supremely confident these same people would not escalate to WMD no matter what happens in #Ukraine.— Stephen Walt (@stephenWalt) April 27, 2022

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean


    irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering
     
    They are extremely rational and would hold off strategic action until the US has done enough for them to justify it. It probably means far after direct military confrontation with NATO.

    Replies: @S, @Sean

    , @S
    @Sean


    It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation.
     
    That's a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

    And with the sinking of the Moscow and the fast patrol boats in the Black Sea has the US been involved in an undeclared naval war against Russia?

    A person can say and ask these things without being either 'pro Hitler' or 'pro Putin'.

    In July 1941, in a top secret memo to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Harold Stark, President Roosevelt authorized the Atlantic Fleet to change from defensive to offensive operations, writing, in part, “…the presence of any German submarine or raider should be dealt with by action looking to the elimination of such ‘threat of attack’ on the lines of communication, or close to it.”

    On Sept. 1, 1941, King issued Operation Plan 7-41. Stamped “Secret,” it was distributed to the ten task forces and four patrols under his command and contained the unconditional order to “destroy hostile forces that threaten shipping…” Four days later, the USS Greer, a World War I-era destroyer, narrowly escaped being torpedoed by U-552 off the coast of Iceland. Roosevelt issued a public warning to Nazi Germany and Italy: “If German or Italian vessels of war enter the waters . . . necessary for American defense, they do so at their own peril.”

     

    https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/

    Replies: @216

  610. AP says:

    Russia has now started killing people in Odessa. So Odessa will hate Russia like Kharkiv, Kiev, etc. do.

    AnoninTN was wrong about many things but he was right about one thing when he used to repeat the phrase that “the army shoots its own people only once, after that it shoots foreign people.” Russia has successfully turned even places of mixed ethnicity foreign to it.

    It’s a pity he is not here now.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    He is incorrect on that point. Soviets and Germans destroyed tons of "their" own cities in WW2 with artillery, Allied bombings killed 60k Frenchmen, etc.

    Anyhow, it's not like it will matter one way or another. If Russia wins, it's irrelevant. If Russia loses, then a decades-long wall of hatred between Ukrainians and Russians will be objectively desirable in any case (Ukrainians will have more fuel for nation-building, Ukrainian hatred will sabotage the Russian traitors who will likely rule post-Putin beseeching readmission into the West).

    Replies: @AP

  611. Auto-translate (some quick minor own corrections) about latest fighting from Strelkov below. btw, several days ago on video he said full mobilization is not ongoing and not even planned atm, so soon we will have ability to compare his knowledge with alleged Putin’s goals which should be declared on 9th May:

    In the Kharkov area – fighting to the northeast and southwest of the city. The attacks of the Ukrainian troops in these areas were stopped without significant (for the UA Armed Forces) results. Our troops, however, also have nothing to “boast” about. In general, the front remains on the line reached by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during a slight advance a week ago.

    In the area south of Izyum, over the past two days, Russian troops have not been able to make significant progress and capture any settlements. There is no talk yet about a breakthrough to the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway.

    Fighting continued around Krasny Liman (apparently considered by the command of the RF Armed Forces as a “consolation prize” for the expected (by me) failure to cover the entire enemy Donetsk grouping). The estuary is covered by Russian troops and units of the LDNR Armed Forces from the east and southeast, but now (when the threat of a breakthrough to Barvenkovo ​​has weakened) the Armed Forces of Ukraine are clearly not going to surrender it without a fight. The wooded area around the city and the fully blossomed foliage on the vegetation contribute to the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The advance of Russian troops is slow. Both sides are suffering significant losses.

    In the area of ​​Severodonetsk – no changes: again, because they do not intend to leave this heavily fortified outpost without a real threat to the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it is not possible to take it by storm from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR. Fighting continues in the industrial zone on the southern outskirts of Rubizhne. There are heavy losses on both sides.

    Popasnaya – no change. Fierce street fighting with a very slow advance of Russian and allied forces.

    Donetsk region. Avdiivka and Maryinka – no changes. District Ugledar – similarly. The only difference is that the DPR Armed Forces have not yet entered the city itself and the key settlements around it.

    In the Zaporozhye region, units of the DPR Armed Forces deployed there failed in preparing an offensive in the area of ​​​​the village of Lyubimovka (North of Melitopol along the highway to Zaporozhye, west of Tokmak). Positional battles continue.

    Transnistria – there was no information about an additional aggravation of the situation. The threat of invasion remains relevant and will remain so until the Russian troops break through to the region.

    Finally, systemic (aimed not at one-time “acts of intimidation”, but at a real violation of the railway network) missile strikes on the so-called communications began. At the same time, I cannot fail to note that key objects – bridges and bridge aqueducts – are still bypassed with blows. The main emphasis is on the destruction of electrical substations that feed the lines. However, I have the honor to remind you (if suddenly the General Staff does not know) that Kyiv has a not so small fleet of diesel locomotives at its disposal (part of the railway lines in western Ukraine were not electrified even in Soviet times). And for them, damage to electricity supply systems is unpleasant,but not critical.

    In general, the situation at the front continues to develop according to my (a week ago) forecast. Strategically, it plays into the hands of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which managed to prevent the widely advertised breakthrough of the front in the Donbass at almost the same positions from which the attempted breakthrough began (for now, at least).

    The Armed Forces of Ukraine won another week to replenish troops, regroup and prepare reserves. And also for planning probable offensive operations where they are expected (Transnistria, for example) and where are not expected for the Russian command which for some reason is still confident (despite all the “lessons” of the previous two months) that the enemy will fight in such a way that is convenient the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

    https://vk.com/igoristrelkov?w=wall347260249_655295

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  612. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    ...specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.
     
    And I added that the toll on the defending country could be very high. Will Ukraine will be better off with that level of sacrifices? You didn't answer. Ignoring it doesn't make it go away.

    Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO.
     
    Unless Nato enters the war its ability to protect supplies to Kiev is limited. They are both next door but Russia can blow up stuff at will, and Nato can only smuggle weapons through what will be a free fire zone. "Large share" refers to the depots that have already been destroyed as acknowledged by Kiev. Is a continuum, but I agree an unknown.

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria
     
    Which one? Ulster is in UK with Protestants having full rights, French were expelled...which model do you suggest? I think Hungarians in Romani or Swedes in Finland are another model that fits. Even French (Walloons) in Belgium and Switzerland.

    Keeping "lands inhabited by Ukrainians" is a rational goal and I am not sure Russia - or anyone - has ever objected to that. But you have to define it. Define what it means having a full control: for example does the full sovereignity mean that Kiev can place Nato missiles and bases on the border with Russia? That's what the war is about. If Kiev relents and agrees to a form of neutrality in effect Russia will win and Nato will lose. In my view Kiev would also win in that case, but people like you disagree for some absurd reasons that you can't explain.

    Replies: @AP

    …specifically comparing aid to each country and the toll it took on the invader.

    And I added that the toll on the defending country could be very high.

    We do not know if it would be so high in Ukraine’s case. Evacuation of civilians is easier for Ukrainians than it was for Vietnamese. It is up to the Ukrainian people in Ukraine it decide if it is worth it, I won’t judge for them but will support them. So far they have chosen resistance to subjugation.

    Ukraine is literally right next door to NATO.

    Unless Nato enters the war its ability to protect supplies to Kiev is limited. They are both next door but Russia can blow up stuff at will

    LOL, this is akin to “Russia will conquer Ukraine in 1 week.” Russia has demonstrated that it is incapable of blowing up everything at will, most gets through.

    Protestants in Ireland, French and Harkis in Algeria

    Which one? Ulster is in UK

    Indeed, Ulster is in UK but rest of Ireland is Irish. So Donetsk and Crimea may stay in Russia but rest of Ukraine will be Ukraine.

    OTOH French and Kharkis were erased from Algeria.

    So those are the two likely options, depending on how the battles go. Probably it will be the first one.

    I think Hungarians in Romani or Swedes in Finland are another model that fits

    After Russian invasion and killings of Ukrainians, those are very unlikely.

    If Kiev relents and agrees to a form of neutrality in effect Russia will win and Nato will lose. In my view Kiev would also win in that case

    Neutrality is only acceptable if it is limited to military (so EU is not excluded) and if it includes guarantees with teeth and/or credible native deterrent (large Ukrainian army bristling with modern antiaircraft defenses). Russia demanded both neutrality and demilitirazation, it demanded a helpless Ukraine with no allies (most likely, for later consumption).

  613. Sean says:
    @Dmitry
    @Sean

    Germany is planning to re-invest in the military now, although it will be even less necessary than before.

    It seems like a lot of money is going for their aerospace forces.

    Lockheed Martin maybe the largest group to benefit, if Germany will buy F-35 planes that is produced by this company.*


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B4njJatAhA

    -

    *
    It's cynical to see how immediately after February 24 investors seemed to be expecting more business opportunity for Lockheed Martin.
    https://i.imgur.com/uquxlS2.jpg

    Replies: @Sean

    Germany is planning to re-invest in the military now

    The 47 billion that America has earmarked for aid to Ukraine ins not even coming out of the defense Budget. Germany tried to get the money it had spent integrating the invited Syrian and other refugees. Germany is an inveterate defence freeloader, that shells out on rescuing EU single currency because it is an export promotion program for the benefit of Germany’s manufactures.

    Germany will buy F-35 planes

    The Russian army is basically a defensive army that assumes it will have to cope with enemy air superiority, and consequently has a a lot of anti aircraft missiles. One reason the US Air Force does not want to fly in Ukraine is worry that with the oppertunity the Russians would solve technical problems and then might show up the F35 (really an air combat fight) very vulnerable when flying even stand off ground attack missions.

  614. @Anatoly Karlin
    In the previous thread, Ron Unz wrote:

    That’s the thing. None of them—Ritter, Macgregor, Johnson, or others—come across as “Kremlin shills” because they aren’t. They’re sober Western military experts, and what they’re saying seems pretty reasonable. Meanwhile, Karlin and those other Russians you mention seem to have had grandiose/inflated ideas at the beginning, and since those haven’t worked out, they’ve become demoralized. I think you’d be better off listening to the people I mentioned.
     
    (1) Things I got correct:
    * The invasion itself (from late December 2021 so quite early, if not as early as the earliest) - yes
    * Chinese acquiescence and de facto support - yes
    * Russian popular support - yes
    * Negotiations a charade - yes, repeatedly demonstrated to be so and keep confirming the likely truth of (2)
    * There would be no meaningful insurgency - yes so far

    (2) Things that I predicted and are panning out:
    * Russia's likely maximalist goals - yes so far, Kherson People's Republic coalescing, others will follow

    (3) Things I got wrong:
    * 2-3 weeks to decisively win - though so did most people

    The last one was shared by most analysts as well as very likely many in the Russian government, they evidently thought it would be a recap of Hungary 1956/Czechoslovakia 1968.

    I also do not know where Ron got the idea that I am demoralized from, I have stated repeatedly that Russia will almost certainly win regardless. (My slanderers clearly have severe reading comprehension issues, conflating what I very clearly labeled to be hypothetical scenarios with my assessment of what was actually going to happen).

    My polite suggestion to Ron should he decide to take it is that it may be prudent to consider attaching less weight to insinuations made against me by personalities with well-known vendettas against me - the conman Thulean Fraud, the slanderous Armenoid piece of shit who begged me to unban me after having made unforgiveable accusations against me (which I did for some strange reason), the émigré cosmopolitan Jew inordinately interested in sneakers and YouTube unboxing videos who for some truly undecipherable reason presumes himself qualified to make ethnic assessments about me, etc.).

    ***

    Thulean Fraud <a href="https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-185-russia-ukraine/#comment-5307637"claims:

    Only ~3 months apart. The bet was supposed to last to 2050 🙂

    Come to think of it, Karlin has a pretty good track record of predicting events which are short-term in nature with a very limited, defined time-frame (e.g. Trump’s election, Russia’s invasion) but whose long-term analytical abilities are poor (got China badly wrong, predicted America’s imminent demise back in 2010, misunderstood Putin’s aims, shilled Peak Oil for years before he quietly dropped it and so on, and so forth). I think I’m the inverse.
     
    There is a reason I call Thulean Fraud a lying conman. I criticized a single aspect of Chinese policy, I did not reverse or question my bet. I got Putin's aims perfectly correct (at any rate reality on the ground continues to back them up), predicted the Great Bifurcation (currently in progress). Peak oil and "imminent demise" (not really) of he US was from a short period when I was 22, it was a pretty short phase, many people keep it up for decades. But good on him for digging up my deep archives, near ODS-tier dedication.

    ***

    Also, a belated Happy Easter to all!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRHN9vxWUAEJ_eW.jpg

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. Hack, @A123, @sudden death, @SIMP simp, @Guest2022, @Guest2022, @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    So much for Christianity. Russia belongs to Mars. The ROC is godless.

    • Troll: Mikhail
  615. Mikel says:
    @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Here it is, if we get new updates, seems it would be just a voluntary change of adress handle:

    https://twitter.com/powerfultakes

    Replies: @Mikel

    Yes, he went offline after a change of handle and now someone else has taken his old one. So false alarm re censorship but strange development.

    My skepticism wrt Musk stands anyway. AK’s friends @RWApodcast were recently suspended and now claim to still be shadow-banned after their reinstatement. Unlike in previous wars, all the action now is on Telegram. You can’t follow a war in real time through people who are self-censoring or about to be censored any time. Twitter has lost that space for good, I think.

  616. @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    I found this really cool film poster that I just love:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f7/The_One_That_Got_Away_film_poster.jpg

    Replies: @songbird

    Wow, that is a great poster! Too often today, they go with complexity, rather than balance. And it is too often photoshopped stills, added together, instead of drawings or paintings. I think a small part of it has to do with politics – if it is a diverse cast, they want to show it off. And so, we get away from these great, “pregnant moments”, that have a sort of feng shui, but feature only one character.

    As to the movie, I would rank it in between The Great Escape (better) and Reach for the Sky (not as good, IMO, because kind of corny). Still haven’t seen The Colditz Story, but I’ll definitely watch it one day.

  617. @Yevardian
    @utu


    I do understand that your function here always was to give resistance to Russia anti-Ukraine lies and propaganda. And this is OK as somebody had do it but in the process you have crossed some lines which is a professional risk for every propagandist. That line is not about your lies. Propagandist always resort to some lies. The line is about your poor judgment and lack of respect for your audience. You have assumed we here are credulous idiots.
     
    This got me thinking. On some level this would put proper context for the level of mutual respect AK and AP seemed to have always shown each other, even as the former exploded in spiteful rage at his old commentariat few months ago; going even so far to lash out at good-natured old Mr. Hack in his dotage. Like respects like, I suppose.

    Replies: @utu, @A123, @Anatoly Karlin

    I can’t recall AP ever insulting me, nor have I ever seen him mouthing me off behind my back, so why would it be surprising that I return the favor, while treating the conmen, frauds, and backstabbing weasels who have hijacked my former blog with the precise level of respect they deserve?

  618. The US self propelled howitzers seem to have arrived on the battlefield. Apparently they took out the command post a couple of days ago. They are credited with 10 ‘tank’ kills in a couple of days.

    The 2nd wave weaponry is now getting to the battlefield. Russia has no new response. Gerasimov’s visit has not resulted in change. With the Ukrainian push east of Kharkiv, the supply route to Izyum with 26,00o troops is now in Ukrainian artillery range. The north of the Donbas front is about to get seriously hot for Russia. The 70,000 men of the Eastern and Central military districts appear to have turned up at Kharkiv (10,000) and Izyum (26,000). How hard will they fight. Kharkiv says not so much.

    Meanwhile, I track industrial sanctions. My comments bear repetition as there is no much discussion about their impact on the net in general.

    Russia has a long tradtion of modernizing by importing complete systems from abroad. Doing things from the ground up is rare. The steel works in Mariupol (US and Belgian), Dontesk (Welsh) and Lugansk (Scottish) were all foreign. They were all built using imported parts. All of them imported the furnance bricks necessary to smelt the iron as a consumable. The alleged Russian word for furnace brick, Dinas, is the name of the site in Wales that made them.

    Import subsititution is no exception. There have been 1695 approved and funded projects since 2015. They have overwhelimingly been in food production and pharmaceuticals. Some software too, notably 1C.

    I know a lot about the food projects. Many large production units have been built for chickens, eggs, pigs, salad crops, dairy, beer and bread production. The were built on a turn key basis by European firms. There are Russian builders of such plants but only on a very small scale with ad hoc technology mostly bought from abroad and low productivity. Russia has boosted production so much that, aided by a drop in demand due to reduced living standards, it has been exporting chicken and pork.

    This is all to be lost because there are modern Dinas bricks.

    3 day old chicks, boar semen, tomato and other seeds, bull semen, hops are largely imported. Large scale processing plants are built aroaund breed characteristics like feed consumption, growth rate, maturity date, size. They can’t operate productively without the exact breed. Without the genetic material from Europe they are stranded assets. Brewers like Carlsberg and Anheuser Busch are selling up. This is said to be in response to reputational consequences of staying in Russia. Actually they haven’t got a hop supply chain they can use. In the case of beer Turkish and South African firms might step in. For the rest, no. The Chinese have production problems of their own due to animal disease and Covid. The South Americans were badly burned by Russian business practices from 2015 onwards when they were courted as alternatives to European food suppliers so they are unlikely to step in quickly.

    In the coming months the Russian food supply will dwindle. By September things will be serious.

    A similar logic applies to spare parts for other industries. In most industries 3 months, at most 6 of parts will be in country. The movbile phone network is part of this. The base stations use UK technology. Smuggling capacity via China and Iran is severely limited by poor infrastructure and quarrels about customs procedures.

    Meanwhile, SAP which holds 48% of the ERP market in Russia is withdrawing. When contracts come to an end they will not be renewed. Russian manufacturing and retail distribution will descend into chaos. Some military suppliers use 1C but even there tank and anti aircraft system factories have shut due to lack of componments.

    Then there are the no yet airtight but still damaging bans on banking, shipping, insurance which will have expanding and accelerating system wide effects as time goes on. Even if Putin can mobilize and equip a million men by the Epiphany Frosts next year, their supply chain will be shot to hell.

    These factors will not instantly shut down Russia but by September, a severe crash in living standards. will be underway. It will not stop until Ukraine is satisfied with the deal Russia offers and perhaps not then as the US, EU and UK make lifting sanctions dependent on unlikely reforms in Russia.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen


    the US, EU and UK make lifting sanctions dependent on unlikely reforms in Russia.
     
    They would rather have a second India of the 18th century where the British encouraged the active dismantling of local artisan industries, than a successfully reformed national entity. Far worse than how Iran fares and comparable to 90s Cuba (with very similar regime change demands!) and North Korea.

    A question for you: How far would China suffer from a similar loss of technological and material import in the case of wide-ranging sanctions or general hard decoupling, and what lessons do all these hold for China?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  619. @AP
    Russia has now started killing people in Odessa. So Odessa will hate Russia like Kharkiv, Kiev, etc. do.

    AnoninTN was wrong about many things but he was right about one thing when he used to repeat the phrase that "the army shoots its own people only once, after that it shoots foreign people." Russia has successfully turned even places of mixed ethnicity foreign to it.

    It's a pity he is not here now.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    He is incorrect on that point. Soviets and Germans destroyed tons of “their” own cities in WW2 with artillery, Allied bombings killed 60k Frenchmen, etc.

    Anyhow, it’s not like it will matter one way or another. If Russia wins, it’s irrelevant. If Russia loses, then a decades-long wall of hatred between Ukrainians and Russians will be objectively desirable in any case (Ukrainians will have more fuel for nation-building, Ukrainian hatred will sabotage the Russian traitors who will likely rule post-Putin beseeching readmission into the West).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    He is incorrect on that point. Soviets and Germans destroyed tons of “their” own cities in WW2 with artillery, Allied bombings killed 60k Frenchmen, etc.
     
    Good point.

    Anyhow, it’s not like it will matter one way or another. If Russia wins, it’s irrelevant.
     
    It will make occupation harder and more costly, when the population despises you. Sabotage, looking the other way, not to mention open resistance.

    If Russia loses, then a decades-long wall of hatred between Ukrainians and Russians will be objectively desirable in any case (Ukrainians will have more fuel for nation-building, Ukrainian hatred will sabotage the Russian traitors who will likely rule post-Putin beseeching readmission into the West).
     
    Win-win for the nationalists, I guess.
  620. @LondonBob
    Strange how no one talks about Russia taking over Kherson, Melitopol, Berydansk, Nova Khakhova unopposed. The land bridge to Crimea would have been priority number one for me.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    At short notice resource allocation would have been a problem. Also the terrain favours blitzkrieg. The big question is why the route to Crimea wasn’t blown, bridges and all. Treachery?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    You don't read maps well. The Izium War Path and teh Muravsky Trail allow a route from Moscow to Sevastapol without crossing a river.

    The Crim used it on their slave raids into the Russian interior and the cities of Belgorod and Kharkov were founded to block the horse armies that wintered in Crimea from approaching Moscow unopposed.

    The Land Bridge is a Literal Landbridge.

    If there was any betrayal it was in the staff colleges where map reading wasn't taught to the Ukies. I think you can drive a tank from Moscow to Sevastapol without crossing unfordable water. Izyum itself is the only tough ford.

  621. At least visually it is already looking like Vietnam redux:

    Ru pov. Vietnam vibes with KA-52 from UkraineRussiaReport

  622. @Philip Owen
    The US self propelled howitzers seem to have arrived on the battlefield. Apparently they took out the command post a couple of days ago. They are credited with 10 'tank' kills in a couple of days.

    The 2nd wave weaponry is now getting to the battlefield. Russia has no new response. Gerasimov's visit has not resulted in change. With the Ukrainian push east of Kharkiv, the supply route to Izyum with 26,00o troops is now in Ukrainian artillery range. The north of the Donbas front is about to get seriously hot for Russia. The 70,000 men of the Eastern and Central military districts appear to have turned up at Kharkiv (10,000) and Izyum (26,000). How hard will they fight. Kharkiv says not so much.

    Meanwhile, I track industrial sanctions. My comments bear repetition as there is no much discussion about their impact on the net in general.

    Russia has a long tradtion of modernizing by importing complete systems from abroad. Doing things from the ground up is rare. The steel works in Mariupol (US and Belgian), Dontesk (Welsh) and Lugansk (Scottish) were all foreign. They were all built using imported parts. All of them imported the furnance bricks necessary to smelt the iron as a consumable. The alleged Russian word for furnace brick, Dinas, is the name of the site in Wales that made them.

    Import subsititution is no exception. There have been 1695 approved and funded projects since 2015. They have overwhelimingly been in food production and pharmaceuticals. Some software too, notably 1C.

    I know a lot about the food projects. Many large production units have been built for chickens, eggs, pigs, salad crops, dairy, beer and bread production. The were built on a turn key basis by European firms. There are Russian builders of such plants but only on a very small scale with ad hoc technology mostly bought from abroad and low productivity. Russia has boosted production so much that, aided by a drop in demand due to reduced living standards, it has been exporting chicken and pork.

    This is all to be lost because there are modern Dinas bricks.

    3 day old chicks, boar semen, tomato and other seeds, bull semen, hops are largely imported. Large scale processing plants are built aroaund breed characteristics like feed consumption, growth rate, maturity date, size. They can’t operate productively without the exact breed. Without the genetic material from Europe they are stranded assets. Brewers like Carlsberg and Anheuser Busch are selling up. This is said to be in response to reputational consequences of staying in Russia. Actually they haven’t got a hop supply chain they can use. In the case of beer Turkish and South African firms might step in. For the rest, no. The Chinese have production problems of their own due to animal disease and Covid. The South Americans were badly burned by Russian business practices from 2015 onwards when they were courted as alternatives to European food suppliers so they are unlikely to step in quickly.

    In the coming months the Russian food supply will dwindle. By September things will be serious.

    A similar logic applies to spare parts for other industries. In most industries 3 months, at most 6 of parts will be in country. The movbile phone network is part of this. The base stations use UK technology. Smuggling capacity via China and Iran is severely limited by poor infrastructure and quarrels about customs procedures.

    Meanwhile, SAP which holds 48% of the ERP market in Russia is withdrawing. When contracts come to an end they will not be renewed. Russian manufacturing and retail distribution will descend into chaos. Some military suppliers use 1C but even there tank and anti aircraft system factories have shut due to lack of componments.

    Then there are the no yet airtight but still damaging bans on banking, shipping, insurance which will have expanding and accelerating system wide effects as time goes on. Even if Putin can mobilize and equip a million men by the Epiphany Frosts next year, their supply chain will be shot to hell.

    These factors will not instantly shut down Russia but by September, a severe crash in living standards. will be underway. It will not stop until Ukraine is satisfied with the deal Russia offers and perhaps not then as the US, EU and UK make lifting sanctions dependent on unlikely reforms in Russia.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    the US, EU and UK make lifting sanctions dependent on unlikely reforms in Russia.

    They would rather have a second India of the 18th century where the British encouraged the active dismantling of local artisan industries, than a successfully reformed national entity. Far worse than how Iran fares and comparable to 90s Cuba (with very similar regime change demands!) and North Korea.

    A question for you: How far would China suffer from a similar loss of technological and material import in the case of wide-ranging sanctions or general hard decoupling, and what lessons do all these hold for China?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Yellowface Anon

    China would suffer. China, SMEE, has just developed a stepper to make 28nm semiconductors, 1990's stuff. Russia has placed an order for Skolkovo. Fine but these things need surrounding ecosystems. China might have one. Russia doesn't.

    The East India Company did not threaten to chop off the hands of Indian cotton weavers. That was French propaganda to make their Maharshta proxies fight harder. The EIC made large profits on trading hand woven Indian cottons (muslins) which were far lighter than Manchester cotton. Manchester cotton was coarse and cheap in comparison. It sold in India to people too poor to but muslins.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  623. @Sean

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/04/us-lend-lease-act-ukraine-1941-second-world-war The sums of money being contemplated in Washington [are]... one third of Ukraine’s prewar GDP. If it is approved by Congress, on top of other western aid, it will mean that we are financing nothing less than a total war. After 1942, the great Soviet counter-offensives were carried by Lend-Lease trucks{...] Lend-Lease in March to the Atlantic charter in August 1941 and, by December, to Pearl Harbor and the US entry into the war. Providing aid to both China and the British empire, Lend-Lease was a crucial step in turning what was originally a separate Japanese war on China and a German war in Europe into a world war. [...] If the US Congress is now launching a new Lend-Lease programme, the question of whether escalation is part of the plan must come into consideration.[...] Churchill played into when he appealed to the US in February 1941 not to enter the war, but to give Britain and its empire the tools “and we will finish the job”. But the very generosity and scale of Lend-Lease, and the commitment that implied, brought into stark relief the fact that the US was paying for others to fight the battle on its behalf. [...] If that is the plan and Putin allows us to stick to it...

    Brendan Simms and Charlie Laderman show in their book Hitler’s American Gamble, an extraordinary reconstruction of the fateful week following Pearl Harbor, the immediate reaction to the Japanese attack was to suspend Lend-Lease shipments; London and Moscow were horrified. It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation. Then, as now, the motives of those antagonists are obscure
     
    .

    I'm puzzled by the people who simultaneously: 1) think Putin and his inner circle are irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering; and 2) are also supremely confident these same people would not escalate to WMD no matter what happens in #Ukraine.— Stephen Walt (@stephenWalt) April 27, 2022
     

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @S

    irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering

    They are extremely rational and would hold off strategic action until the US has done enough for them to justify it. It probably means far after direct military confrontation with NATO.

    • Replies: @S
    @Yellowface Anon

    This should have been included as the source in the aforementioned post in regards to 'the immigrants' quote. (Pg 4 from the 2003 academic paper)

    https://www.academia.edu/27219183/Between_urban_and_national_Political_mobilization_among_Mizrahim_in_Israel_s_development_towns_

    , @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon

    I suppose Walt was noting that those wanting the West to get tough with Russia hold mutually incomparable views on why it is necessary and why it could not precipitate Russian into initiating a nuclear disaster. They are pursuing certain objectives that are not rational though only in in the way that a liberal understands rationality, or they would never have invaded Ukraine, which was something that Putin had been planning for a long time judging by his construction of a fortress economy. How can the correct calculation be made about whether they will accept a defeat in Ukraine, or how bad it would have to be in order for them to start toying with the idea of using a battlefield nuke? Once that Rubicon has been crossed using another one on less nearby targets might come easy. The US is threatening to intervene if 'weapons of mass destruction' are used. All it takes is someone to get nervous and someone to get stupid. Killing a dozen Russian generals may turn out to be a bad idea if theri replacement lack to authority to say no to Putin. Also George Beebe ex chief of Russia analysis for the CIA,


    'the Russians have the ability to make sure everyone else loses if they lose too. And that may be where we’re heading. It’s a dangerous corner to turn.'”

     

    Beebe's point in his bookis the cyberespionage that the US is using against Russia (Russia is way behind it it contrary to what we were led to believe) might make it look to Russians seeing something happening to their defence computer as if America was trying to covertly disarm the Russian nuclear deterrent--an act of war requiring they do 'something'.
  624. S says:
    @Thulean Friend
    @songbird


    These Viking movies could be about something else. Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?
     
    You're onto something. There has been a huge surge in Viking-related films and series in recent years. The Northman is but the latest example.

    I haven't watched it but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid "red meat" (e.g. no PoC, women are portrayed as untrustworthy etc). It got a pretty big budget, so it doesn't gel with the paranoid narrative that the evil Hollywood is out to get the white man etc.

    Replies: @S

    I haven’t watched it [The Northman] but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid “red meat” (e.g. no PoC…

    Geez. I don’t know. Maybe it’s neither a ‘right’ or ‘left’ thing. Maybe they just let slip a reflection of the historical truth of the time that in general you just didn’t see ‘PoC’ in that part of the world.

    But, if it will make you feel any better about it, below are some pics and a link to a 1978 movie of practically the same name, The Norseman, which does includes an ahistorical ‘PoC’.

    The movie was appropriately enough a complete bomb.

    Lest any forget what the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state is about at it’s core, with its wage slavery (ie the so called ‘cheap labor’/’mass immigration’ system’) of which ‘the refugees’ simply act as a cynical flimsy fig leaf for:

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule!

    ‘..the immigrants usually serve three main functions: cheap labor to replace native groups; settlement on the ‘frontier’ (periphery); and control over the natives and their land. These dynamics generally result in the maintenance of hegemony..’

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    Last Viking movie I watched was the '58 one (The Vikings), years ago. Kind of funny because Kirk Douglass and Tony Curtis were both Jewish.

    Replies: @S, @Emil Nikola Richard

  625. @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean


    irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering
     
    They are extremely rational and would hold off strategic action until the US has done enough for them to justify it. It probably means far after direct military confrontation with NATO.

    Replies: @S, @Sean

    This should have been included as the source in the aforementioned post in regards to ‘the immigrants’ quote. (Pg 4 from the 2003 academic paper)

    https://www.academia.edu/27219183/Between_urban_and_national_Political_mobilization_among_Mizrahim_in_Israel_s_development_towns_

  626. @S
    @Thulean Friend


    I haven’t watched it [The Northman] but from what I hear it has a pretty strong undercurrent of rightoid “red meat” (e.g. no PoC...
     
    Geez. I don't know. Maybe it's neither a 'right' or 'left' thing. Maybe they just let slip a reflection of the historical truth of the time that in general you just didn't see 'PoC' in that part of the world.

    But, if it will make you feel any better about it, below are some pics and a link to a 1978 movie of practically the same name, The Norseman, which does includes an ahistorical 'PoC'.

    The movie was appropriately enough a complete bomb.

    Lest any forget what the economic and political basis of the modern progressive multi-cultural state is about at it's core, with its wage slavery (ie the so called 'cheap labor'/'mass immigration' system') of which 'the refugees' simply act as a cynical flimsy fig leaf for:

    Divide and conquer, divide and rule!

    https://www.cinemedioevo.net/Film/LO/norseman07.jpg


    ‘..the immigrants usually serve three main functions: cheap labor to replace native groups; settlement on the ‘frontier’ (periphery); and control over the natives and their land. These dynamics generally result in the maintenance of hegemony..’
     


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dWha7-dCZbE/TpsJe1tb8tI/AAAAAAAABZo/aerQ-DeaYgI/s1600/Norseman-003.jpg


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Norseman

    Replies: @songbird

    Last Viking movie I watched was the ’58 one (The Vikings), years ago. Kind of funny because Kirk Douglass and Tony Curtis were both Jewish.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird

    If I remember that's the one where a guy gets thrown into a pit with a bunch of vicious dogs. Or was that a very hungry bear? I forget which. A bad end, anyhow.

    I still like my 2013-20 Vikings series! ;-)


    https://tonights.tv/wp-content/uploads/2016/fanart/260449-1.jpg

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    How did they show their body building physiques up there in the land of the ice and snow?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s85y2M615PA

    Replies: @songbird

  627. @Sean
    Russia is quite determined to not lose, and the invisible line where they decide to halt the shellacking being administered by Ukraine with American assistance by means of a very big bang is surely getting closer to being crossed all the time. All animals (and a country is a living thing) have a profound advantage on home territory. On the thermonuclear plan, Ukraine and America would cease to have an advantage. The former hasn't got them and the latter would not use them. ..

    Putin's actions indicate that he considers Ukraine an existential threat to Russia, so he will stop at nothing to avoid losing. If Russia began using nuclear weapons on the battlefields of Ukraine it would be because Russia was about to lose the conventional war in Ukraine. You certainly cannot fight conventionally against nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons have no military purpose; wars cannot be fought with them. Is America going take a step into the unknown for the very highest of stakes over Ukraine?

    It seems America's aim is to totally defeat Russia in Ukraine, yet Putin at the begining denied he will countenance foreign intervention turning the tables on Russia. He to go full thermonuclear rather than be beaten. I note that Putin's threat to invade Ukraine was not a bluff, though everyone thought it was.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @HuggyBear

    The analysis is good but does not recognize one fundamental issue to the ongoing conflict.
    That of the covert and internal battle between the American “Deep State” and the Patriots.

    Putin is banking on the evidence he has tabled, so far refused by the UN, of the corruption, degradation, and War Crimes that have been going on in Ukraine such as the US Taxpayer-funded Biolabs ( at least 13 ) not to mention the people trafficking, and Satanic activities of the Khazarian Mafia. ( KM )
    This KM is under attack and Public Opinion is beginning to recognize the crimes against Humanity that they have engineered. The “Laptop from Hell” is another example of the Biden crime family along with the Neocon PNAC Strategy that destroyed wealthy and rising countries in the Middle East.
    If , as Kash Patel’s Devolution theory suggests, we are engaged in a Military Sting operation to unpick and destroy the KM activists embedded traitorously in the Washington Consensus, then Putin does not necessarily need to win or prolong the “military intervention” in the Ukraine as it should become increasingly obvious that Russia has the Moral Highground – as Lavrov has always eloquently maintained.

    We await the renewal of the Worldview of the Western Masses and the unseating of the KM – after which there will no longer be any reason for Orthodox Christian brothers to be killing each other in this contrived Theatre.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @HuggyBear

    Nice to see instructions about renewed edition of Putin's "cunning plan", it gives hope that RF will fold on offense soon and begin defense of the achieved loot after declaring victory over Mariupol on May 9th.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Sean
    @HuggyBear

    The US funding biolabs abroad is very strange, not to say reckless. Russia might get reckless too.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @HuggyBear

    I would be amazed if the Russian government is presenting a document to the international community which contains the phrase "khazarian mafia".

    In fact if they do I will swear off all recreational drugs, alcohol, sex, and meat for one year.

  628. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean


    irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering
     
    They are extremely rational and would hold off strategic action until the US has done enough for them to justify it. It probably means far after direct military confrontation with NATO.

    Replies: @S, @Sean

    I suppose Walt was noting that those wanting the West to get tough with Russia hold mutually incomparable views on why it is necessary and why it could not precipitate Russian into initiating a nuclear disaster. They are pursuing certain objectives that are not rational though only in in the way that a liberal understands rationality, or they would never have invaded Ukraine, which was something that Putin had been planning for a long time judging by his construction of a fortress economy. How can the correct calculation be made about whether they will accept a defeat in Ukraine, or how bad it would have to be in order for them to start toying with the idea of using a battlefield nuke? Once that Rubicon has been crossed using another one on less nearby targets might come easy. The US is threatening to intervene if ‘weapons of mass destruction’ are used. All it takes is someone to get nervous and someone to get stupid. Killing a dozen Russian generals may turn out to be a bad idea if theri replacement lack to authority to say no to Putin. Also George Beebe ex chief of Russia analysis for the CIA,

    ‘the Russians have the ability to make sure everyone else loses if they lose too. And that may be where we’re heading. It’s a dangerous corner to turn.’”

    Beebe’s point in his bookis the cyberespionage that the US is using against Russia (Russia is way behind it it contrary to what we were led to believe) might make it look to Russians seeing something happening to their defence computer as if America was trying to covertly disarm the Russian nuclear deterrent–an act of war requiring they do ‘something’.

  629. @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    because of low productivity
     
    I'm not knowledgeable about the economic topic, but as non-economist, I wonder how accurately economists compare productivity, across different cultures. When Tokyo salarymen are drinking with their boss in a karaoke bar or sleeping in office, do you include these as worker hours in the denominator? I wonder about siestas in Mediterranean countries? If you include this, productivity would decrease, exclude this and it would increase.
    -

    As a result of being in a Western industry where employees have a lot of autonomy and independent tasks, I actually seem to choose to have long hours at lower productivity for my own tasks.

    I could enjoy procrastinating for so many hours wasting time or chilling. But then I like to remain in the office, sometimes all night drinking coffee, to finish something. But if you eliminated "procrastination time", my productivity per worker hour would increase. However I wouldn't necessarily produce more per week. It would also not match my preferences, which is to work for very many hours, with procrastination and relaxing time integrated.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    I wonder how accurately economists compare productivity, across different cultures. When Tokyo salarymen are drinking with their boss in a karaoke bar or sleeping in office, do you include these as worker hours in the denominator?

    At my firm, our sales team are expected to show up for important clients and wine and dine them. Ditto for potential partners. Is this fundamentally different from the function of a drinking session at a local karaoke bar in Tokyo? Sounds to me like a cultural variation of the same phenomenon.

    Siesta is harder to defend, since it’s literally just sleeping and is inherently solitary and non-productive. You could at least make an argument for bonding with clients/partners over karaoke. Perhaps this is why southern Europe has lagged behind?

    (The boring, robotic answer is that productivity is calculated as a residual, but the standard way of calculation hasn’t changed since the 1950s. There is wide-ranging debate on how we can better measure it, particularly in the digital era where “intangibles” are often greatly valued everywhere but in the statistics.

    Think of Google Maps and similar services. Most people would be willing to pay quite a lot to have such features if they weren’t available for free, yet its intrinsic value isn’t easily captured because it leaves no physical footprint and its usage is wide across many services, let alone personal use. How do you precisely measure the economic value-add of billions of people getting from A to B more efficiently, especially in their spare time? It’s a non-trivial question. And there are countless others, closely interrelated.)

    I could enjoy procrastinating for so many hours wasting time or chilling. But then I like to remain in the office, sometimes all night drinking coffee, to finish something. But if you eliminated “procrastination time”, my productivity per worker hour would increase. However I wouldn’t necessarily produce more per week. It would also not match my preferences, which is to work for very many hours, with procrastination and relaxing time integrated.

    My assumption is that you’re paid per month rather than hour, because if not then I’d fire your manager (while secretly being jealous of you for being able to get away with this).

    Jokes aside, as long as you do what’s expected of you, I don’t see the issue. The extra electricity cost is likely to be marginal. You’re essentially allocating your leisure time to your workplace, but that’s simply your personal choice.

    Is it so much different from being hyper-efficient at the office and then going home and essentially chilling online for hours? If the total output of work is the same, then it’s purely a distribution issue at its core rather than a question of efficiency.

  630. @HuggyBear
    @Sean

    The analysis is good but does not recognize one fundamental issue to the ongoing conflict.
    That of the covert and internal battle between the American "Deep State" and the Patriots.

    Putin is banking on the evidence he has tabled, so far refused by the UN, of the corruption, degradation, and War Crimes that have been going on in Ukraine such as the US Taxpayer-funded Biolabs ( at least 13 ) not to mention the people trafficking, and Satanic activities of the Khazarian Mafia. ( KM )
    This KM is under attack and Public Opinion is beginning to recognize the crimes against Humanity that they have engineered. The "Laptop from Hell" is another example of the Biden crime family along with the Neocon PNAC Strategy that destroyed wealthy and rising countries in the Middle East.
    If , as Kash Patel's Devolution theory suggests, we are engaged in a Military Sting operation to unpick and destroy the KM activists embedded traitorously in the Washington Consensus, then Putin does not necessarily need to win or prolong the "military intervention" in the Ukraine as it should become increasingly obvious that Russia has the Moral Highground - as Lavrov has always eloquently maintained.

    We await the renewal of the Worldview of the Western Masses and the unseating of the KM - after which there will no longer be any reason for Orthodox Christian brothers to be killing each other in this contrived Theatre.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Sean, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Nice to see instructions about renewed edition of Putin’s “cunning plan”, it gives hope that RF will fold on offense soon and begin defense of the achieved loot after declaring victory over Mariupol on May 9th.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death

    He's right in Putin banking on a Trumpist shift in American public opinion come 2022-24, which will lead to the US backing out of support to EU & NATO and implicitly making peace with Russia, as Trump is saying the war in Ukraine wouldn't have started had he been the president from 2021.

    But of cause, the exclusivist Bourgeois elite (Jews among others) run both Russia (Mishustin) and the US.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  631. @HuggyBear
    @Sean

    The analysis is good but does not recognize one fundamental issue to the ongoing conflict.
    That of the covert and internal battle between the American "Deep State" and the Patriots.

    Putin is banking on the evidence he has tabled, so far refused by the UN, of the corruption, degradation, and War Crimes that have been going on in Ukraine such as the US Taxpayer-funded Biolabs ( at least 13 ) not to mention the people trafficking, and Satanic activities of the Khazarian Mafia. ( KM )
    This KM is under attack and Public Opinion is beginning to recognize the crimes against Humanity that they have engineered. The "Laptop from Hell" is another example of the Biden crime family along with the Neocon PNAC Strategy that destroyed wealthy and rising countries in the Middle East.
    If , as Kash Patel's Devolution theory suggests, we are engaged in a Military Sting operation to unpick and destroy the KM activists embedded traitorously in the Washington Consensus, then Putin does not necessarily need to win or prolong the "military intervention" in the Ukraine as it should become increasingly obvious that Russia has the Moral Highground - as Lavrov has always eloquently maintained.

    We await the renewal of the Worldview of the Western Masses and the unseating of the KM - after which there will no longer be any reason for Orthodox Christian brothers to be killing each other in this contrived Theatre.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Sean, @Emil Nikola Richard

    The US funding biolabs abroad is very strange, not to say reckless. Russia might get reckless too.

  632. S says:
    @Sean

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/04/us-lend-lease-act-ukraine-1941-second-world-war The sums of money being contemplated in Washington [are]... one third of Ukraine’s prewar GDP. If it is approved by Congress, on top of other western aid, it will mean that we are financing nothing less than a total war. After 1942, the great Soviet counter-offensives were carried by Lend-Lease trucks{...] Lend-Lease in March to the Atlantic charter in August 1941 and, by December, to Pearl Harbor and the US entry into the war. Providing aid to both China and the British empire, Lend-Lease was a crucial step in turning what was originally a separate Japanese war on China and a German war in Europe into a world war. [...] If the US Congress is now launching a new Lend-Lease programme, the question of whether escalation is part of the plan must come into consideration.[...] Churchill played into when he appealed to the US in February 1941 not to enter the war, but to give Britain and its empire the tools “and we will finish the job”. But the very generosity and scale of Lend-Lease, and the commitment that implied, brought into stark relief the fact that the US was paying for others to fight the battle on its behalf. [...] If that is the plan and Putin allows us to stick to it...

    Brendan Simms and Charlie Laderman show in their book Hitler’s American Gamble, an extraordinary reconstruction of the fateful week following Pearl Harbor, the immediate reaction to the Japanese attack was to suspend Lend-Lease shipments; London and Moscow were horrified. It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation. Then, as now, the motives of those antagonists are obscure
     
    .

    I'm puzzled by the people who simultaneously: 1) think Putin and his inner circle are irrational, paranoid, out-of-touch, and indifferent to human suffering; and 2) are also supremely confident these same people would not escalate to WMD no matter what happens in #Ukraine.— Stephen Walt (@stephenWalt) April 27, 2022
     

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @S

    It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation.

    That’s a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

    And with the sinking of the Moscow and the fast patrol boats in the Black Sea has the US been involved in an undeclared naval war against Russia?

    A person can say and ask these things without being either ‘pro Hitler’ or ‘pro Putin’.

    In July 1941, in a top secret memo to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Harold Stark, President Roosevelt authorized the Atlantic Fleet to change from defensive to offensive operations, writing, in part, “…the presence of any German submarine or raider should be dealt with by action looking to the elimination of such ‘threat of attack’ on the lines of communication, or close to it.”

    On Sept. 1, 1941, King issued Operation Plan 7-41. Stamped “Secret,” it was distributed to the ten task forces and four patrols under his command and contained the unconditional order to “destroy hostile forces that threaten shipping…” Four days later, the USS Greer, a World War I-era destroyer, narrowly escaped being torpedoed by U-552 off the coast of Iceland. Roosevelt issued a public warning to Nazi Germany and Italy: “If German or Italian vessels of war enter the waters . . . necessary for American defense, they do so at their own peril.”

    https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/

    • Replies: @216
    @S


    That’s a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

     

    International law is liberal pablum. I do not recognize its legitimacy.

    The US was a co-belligerent from the enactment of Lend-Lease and Destroyers-for-bases.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  633. @LatW
    @songbird


    I’m fascinated by the idea that there seems to be a Viking renaissance, or rather their popularity seems to have achieved a minor cultural peak. [...] I wonder if it represents some secret zeitgeist
     
    It might be a kind of a safe space for those who prefer that type of a culture in an unadulterated form.



    Yes, it does seem there are more of these than before and there is definitely a proliferation of viking models on Instagram (both male & female). The only change I see from how they used to be before is that there is more braided hair, cornrows (I hope it's not some cultural appropriation from you know who) and more tats. The original look used to be more natural (which is what I prefer, just flowing hair and jewelry). And less graphic violence which makes N.Euros look like savages with brutal instincts (I guess that's what the audience wants). The older ones seem to be centered more about the heroes quest vs just "conquering".

    Another thing that I find interesting in the recent ones is the incorporation of Slavic themes. It seems the older ones were more purely German / NW Euro focused. In this last one, the Northman, there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason? Just speculating.

    Actually, the Vikings series starts out with Ragnar killing a Latvian dude (which really ticked me off). And it looks like the Northman has a scene where an Old Prussian / Wend boy gets killed while fishing in a boat, which is making me rethink whether I want to watch it. Or maybe I should just get over it.

    just as people say zombie movies are really about the decline of the West
     
    Gee, I hope not, it's disturbing even to think about it from that angle. It might be that zombies and aliens in movies are the enemies that Americans don't have in real life. Nobody can really reach the coasts of America, except made up aliens and zombies.

    Maybe, a sort of emergent, crypto Germanic nationalism?
     
    Possibly. Might be one of the few outlet these days for them.

    Replies: @songbird

    there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason?

    I don’t know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths.

    [MORE]
    (Now, this is kind of an interesting thing here – I don’t think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West, but it is notable how they created a video game did, albeit one based on novels.)

    To a certain extent, nationalists seem to have gotten into the books. I only read one, and frankly I was disappointed in it. To me, it seemed really woke. (And people would laugh at me for saying that). But it seemed to have strong feminist themes, and I didn’t like how it seemed to emphasize racial conflict and tensions between humans and elves (even though maybe that would be realistic.)

    Definitely not a fan of cornrows. Reminds me of a girl I once knew who went on a winter vacation in Ecuador and came back deeply tanned and with cornrows. Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.

    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts. I heard an historian once say that Vikings and Irish were pretty similar, only different in the way that they would treat churches and the clergy.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts.
     
    I think some are too hard on the Scandis. Do they still wish they were going around all Europe like they were berserking? They sowed their oats for awhile, as everyone does, and then grew as peoples. Of course the past several decades they've been going down a wrong path, though they are certainly not alone.

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts. from the Viking's descendant colonies in Greenland to be fascinating.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @LatW
    @songbird


    I don’t know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths.
     
    Maybe, and the interest may not be that far spread, it's purely anecdotal on my side (encountering Westerners who shouldn't know about certain titles, for instance, but they do). It could be that they might be watching something on their YouTube feed and it brings them to similar but more rare titles.


    I don’t think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West
     
    Don't know vis a vis the West, but the Polish novel and movie Quo Vadis is quite popular in Eastern Europe. The movie was a bit scary to watch and not too relaxing (meaning it had painful, realistic scenes, with European film one has to be engaged fully, it's not just senseless entertainment).

    Yes, The Witcher struck me as surprisingly woke, but it might be that they're catering to a younger audience.

    Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.
     
    Yea, I've seen some people that I previously liked do that and it's just not a flattering look at all. But they've tried to incorporate this more "tribal" look in these viking / ancient NW Euro movies. Unfortunately, it makes pagans look Wiccan (which they weren't). This tribalization is meant to make the characters more "primitive" and thus more exotic maybe? Otherwise, I don't really mind it that much, it's interesting and entertaining, although they slightly overdid it in the Vikings, they could've just done the fade hairstyle with longer hair on top (that's archeologically quite accurate apparently). But most fans really seem to like these newly discovered hairstyles.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.
     
    Yes, absolutely, that's one of my favorite parts, too. And collective chants, all that.

    No, I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming. Rollo's jump with an axe is superb. It's entertaining (even funny). It's just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild. Well, that was the point it seems.

    For example, Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games where he was made to appear like an evil young white guy ("the blonde beast" or something). Maybe I'm seeing too much in it...

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational. But then that would be kind of boring, so they try to make it more captivating by turning them into real beasts. No, I don't mind, lol.

    Btw, there is a stunning redhead in the later series, Princess Aslaug. Maybe not so much the type that you may like, she doesn't look like an etherial fairy, she's more of a statuesque, regal type. The actress is of British descent from Australia (with a Scottish last name, Sutherland).

    Replies: @songbird

  634. S says:
    @songbird
    @S

    Last Viking movie I watched was the '58 one (The Vikings), years ago. Kind of funny because Kirk Douglass and Tony Curtis were both Jewish.

    Replies: @S, @Emil Nikola Richard

    If I remember that’s the one where a guy gets thrown into a pit with a bunch of vicious dogs. Or was that a very hungry bear? I forget which. A bad end, anyhow.

    I still like my 2013-20 Vikings series! 😉

  635. @sudden death
    @HuggyBear

    Nice to see instructions about renewed edition of Putin's "cunning plan", it gives hope that RF will fold on offense soon and begin defense of the achieved loot after declaring victory over Mariupol on May 9th.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    He’s right in Putin banking on a Trumpist shift in American public opinion come 2022-24, which will lead to the US backing out of support to EU & NATO and implicitly making peace with Russia, as Trump is saying the war in Ukraine wouldn’t have started had he been the president from 2021.

    But of cause, the exclusivist Bourgeois elite (Jews among others) run both Russia (Mishustin) and the US.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    The most critical error in this view is that the back out will never happen whoever will become president in 2024 - Trump doesn't set foreign policy, the neocons do. Trump himself has to toe the line in the face of overwhelming pressure. Putin probably has to wait until the US and EU withdrawing inwards and becoming less relevant as economic and geopolitical entities before legitimizing the acquisitions in Ukraine, and a good while after that would be the right time for China to gain Taiwan back, with or without using the military.

  636. @Yellowface Anon
    @sudden death

    He's right in Putin banking on a Trumpist shift in American public opinion come 2022-24, which will lead to the US backing out of support to EU & NATO and implicitly making peace with Russia, as Trump is saying the war in Ukraine wouldn't have started had he been the president from 2021.

    But of cause, the exclusivist Bourgeois elite (Jews among others) run both Russia (Mishustin) and the US.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    The most critical error in this view is that the back out will never happen whoever will become president in 2024 – Trump doesn’t set foreign policy, the neocons do. Trump himself has to toe the line in the face of overwhelming pressure. Putin probably has to wait until the US and EU withdrawing inwards and becoming less relevant as economic and geopolitical entities before legitimizing the acquisitions in Ukraine, and a good while after that would be the right time for China to gain Taiwan back, with or without using the military.

  637. S says:
    @songbird
    @LatW


    there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason?
     
    I don't know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths. (Now, this is kind of an interesting thing here - I don't think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West, but it is notable how they created a video game did, albeit one based on novels.)

    To a certain extent, nationalists seem to have gotten into the books. I only read one, and frankly I was disappointed in it. To me, it seemed really woke. (And people would laugh at me for saying that). But it seemed to have strong feminist themes, and I didn't like how it seemed to emphasize racial conflict and tensions between humans and elves (even though maybe that would be realistic.)

    Definitely not a fan of cornrows. Reminds me of a girl I once knew who went on a winter vacation in Ecuador and came back deeply tanned and with cornrows. Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.

    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts. I heard an historian once say that Vikings and Irish were pretty similar, only different in the way that they would treat churches and the clergy.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.

    Replies: @S, @LatW

    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts.

    I think some are too hard on the Scandis. Do they still wish they were going around all Europe like they were berserking? They sowed their oats for awhile, as everyone does, and then grew as peoples. Of course the past several decades they’ve been going down a wrong path, though they are certainly not alone.

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts. from the Viking’s descendant colonies in Greenland to be fascinating.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S


    I think some are too hard on the Scandis.
     
    Those were the days of warriors, and I think they were under population pressures (makes me wonder about the future of Africa in 2100).

    I must have a bit of Viking blood, but couldn't see myself LARPing as one, because it doesn't feel like a close connection. When I've thought of warriors, they were primarily Irish ones. Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland. The Hiberno-Norse gallowglasses helped serve as a check on Norman expansion because they provided the heavy infantry that the natives lacked.

    Kenneth Clark's Civilisation had a sort of moving segment about Vikings, midway through the first episode, which included this passage:

    If one wants a symbol of Atlantic man, as opposed to Mediterranean man, a symbol to set against the Greek temple, then it must be the Viking ship. The Greek temple is static, solid, crystalline. The Viking ship is light, mobile, buoyant, floating like a waterlily.
     

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts.
     
    Many years ago, I remember being a young boy at the Dublin Zoo, and I was walking along the outside of the polar bear exhibit, eating an icecream, and directly across the moat, the polar bear was following me. Unquestionably, me specifically.

    I couldn't resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat. Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.

    BTW, there is some castle in Czechia that has brown bears in the moat.

    Replies: @S, @S

  638. @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Every friend of Russia must call on them to quit as soon as possible. Give it up Russians. Ukraine is not going to surrender and you cannot fight forever
     
    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don't take everyone here for fucking idiots. I do think this war was a grave mistake and I have severe reservations about Putin, but from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they'd never recover from. Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis? Same on the other side for Poles and Balts.
    Anyway, don't act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    I'm just glad I'm not Russian or still live in the post soviet space so I'd have to face such choices.

    Replies: @LatW, @Dmitry, @Triteleia Laxa

    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots.

    I love Russia and I love Russians, and I am partially against this war for this reason. You can see my comment history for proof.

    from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from.

    Russia has already lost the war.

    As for what happens to Russia once they leave their state of shock, disbelief and denial, it is up to them.

    No one is threatening their homeland.

    They have total agency.

    But the longer this defeat drags on, the worse the position from which they will start for a project of national renewal.

    And national renewal is what they need. It is clear from their disastrous military performance that the Putin project has been a dead end for quite some time. Perhaps 2010?

    Better that they get on with it now, on their vast landmass, as an organised evolution, rather than dirtily trying to scrub a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine and risk revolution and collapse.

    I don’t know exactly what they should do, federalise, put Yandex in charge and take over the EU from within (?), but they have more than enough talent, if they actually try.

    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?

    It isn’t being a “traitor” to oppose a foreign war which is bleeding out your military, destroying your economy and building a moral debt that your people may languish in guilt over for generations.

    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.

    No, I am fed up with this ridiculous Russian narrative of poor passive Russians always being victims.

    Russia could have done infinitely better in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Plenty of countries did and lacked Russian resources.

    Indeed, no one forced Russia into anything. They were entirely unthreatened. They had one hundred percent effective sovereignty.

    In other words, everything that happened in Russia is and was entirely their responsibility.

    Now, the point of admitting responsibility and agency is not so that you can be condemned, but so that you can do better next time and not ignorantly or pathetically repeat your mistakes.

    Critically, the narrative that Russians currently offer for their invasion of Ukraine is directly linked to the world accepting their self-pitying bullsh*t on the 90s. They claim that they couldn’t help themselves, that they were helpless, in the face of Ukrainian “provocation.” What a load of f*cking toxic nonsense.

    This is Jussie Smollett level stuff, or better heard from Amber Heard. It is pathological. I’d accept it from Congolese or Nigerians or whatever, indeed people like Mugabe specialised in this idiocy, but then I do not extend them the expectations that I have of civilised adults. For they are not, but Russians are.

    For Russians: live in reality. Stop with the pitiful historical excuses. Or histrionically latching onto whatever tiny “provocation” you can ruminate over, and actually be a civilised modern nation. Love requires it. This pathetic self-hatred of zero responsibility is killing your country. Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn’t be so hard. You have infinite land, amazing resources and a people who only need to be empowered to get stuff done, while being inspired. This is straightforward stuff.

    Also, please don’t take my talk of “responsibility” for a moral argument. I am not a moral being and do not make moral arguments. I am just talking about agency and avoiding self-deception. That is all.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn’t be so hard
     
    https://youtu.be/tSBtFvoiYYI?t=110
    , @LatW
    @Triteleia Laxa


    put Yandex in charge
     
    Yandex are a bunch of hipsters whose values are very different from the 70% of the vatniks.

    And take over the EU from within (?),
     
    Er... no. I would suggest that those Western, especially American Russophiles who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments OR, alternately, physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia, accept the Orthodox (or shaman) religion and raise their offspring as Russians. But please do not touch the EU (which is not your business). This will be a better solution for us all. It looks like it'd be best if we separated.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You're misinterpeting my words. I'm not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You're the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I'm simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how 'unpopular' he is and 'give up', imao. There is and has never been such thing as 'people power', populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that's already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters 'disappeared' in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn't be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe's golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former 'dissidents' like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it's hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn't go so far to say 'to understand all, is to forgive all', but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol 'taking over EU from within', you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren't you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America's invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don't you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can't either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that's in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can't expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I'd closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to 'rebuild' the country in the event it manages to hold most of it's territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa's old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa, @A123, @Beckow

  639. @songbird
    @S

    Last Viking movie I watched was the '58 one (The Vikings), years ago. Kind of funny because Kirk Douglass and Tony Curtis were both Jewish.

    Replies: @S, @Emil Nikola Richard

    How did they show their body building physiques up there in the land of the ice and snow?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Someone should make a parody of Viking time travelers coming into our time and seeing Heimdall, the whitest god, depicted by Idris Elba.

  640. @HuggyBear
    @Sean

    The analysis is good but does not recognize one fundamental issue to the ongoing conflict.
    That of the covert and internal battle between the American "Deep State" and the Patriots.

    Putin is banking on the evidence he has tabled, so far refused by the UN, of the corruption, degradation, and War Crimes that have been going on in Ukraine such as the US Taxpayer-funded Biolabs ( at least 13 ) not to mention the people trafficking, and Satanic activities of the Khazarian Mafia. ( KM )
    This KM is under attack and Public Opinion is beginning to recognize the crimes against Humanity that they have engineered. The "Laptop from Hell" is another example of the Biden crime family along with the Neocon PNAC Strategy that destroyed wealthy and rising countries in the Middle East.
    If , as Kash Patel's Devolution theory suggests, we are engaged in a Military Sting operation to unpick and destroy the KM activists embedded traitorously in the Washington Consensus, then Putin does not necessarily need to win or prolong the "military intervention" in the Ukraine as it should become increasingly obvious that Russia has the Moral Highground - as Lavrov has always eloquently maintained.

    We await the renewal of the Worldview of the Western Masses and the unseating of the KM - after which there will no longer be any reason for Orthodox Christian brothers to be killing each other in this contrived Theatre.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Sean, @Emil Nikola Richard

    I would be amazed if the Russian government is presenting a document to the international community which contains the phrase “khazarian mafia”.

    In fact if they do I will swear off all recreational drugs, alcohol, sex, and meat for one year.

    • LOL: keypusher
  641. @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen


    the US, EU and UK make lifting sanctions dependent on unlikely reforms in Russia.
     
    They would rather have a second India of the 18th century where the British encouraged the active dismantling of local artisan industries, than a successfully reformed national entity. Far worse than how Iran fares and comparable to 90s Cuba (with very similar regime change demands!) and North Korea.

    A question for you: How far would China suffer from a similar loss of technological and material import in the case of wide-ranging sanctions or general hard decoupling, and what lessons do all these hold for China?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    China would suffer. China, SMEE, has just developed a stepper to make 28nm semiconductors, 1990’s stuff. Russia has placed an order for Skolkovo. Fine but these things need surrounding ecosystems. China might have one. Russia doesn’t.

    The East India Company did not threaten to chop off the hands of Indian cotton weavers. That was French propaganda to make their Maharshta proxies fight harder. The EIC made large profits on trading hand woven Indian cottons (muslins) which were far lighter than Manchester cotton. Manchester cotton was coarse and cheap in comparison. It sold in India to people too poor to but muslins.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen

    The decision to act militarily is made regardless of the overall economy's readiness for broad sanctions. Look at Shanghai's lockdown. Worse case (and Russia is converging to their level) it'll be North Korea writ large.

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate, whether under communists or democrats. If China made stupid decisions their wish would be realized. And the Politburo might be blind to this fact.

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    Replies: @216, @Coconuts, @Triteleia Laxa

  642. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/002/328/625/ef2.jpg

    It is Beijing that is China's cultural center - the city of soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars. Shanghai is but a den of merchants and shysters.

    It is sad that it had to come to this, but Chad Jinping is doing what he must to keep the svidomist virus contained. The denizens of Shanghai will be confined to their cuckpods and the lockdowns will never end. But I would point out that this is ultimately a punishment that they brought upon themselves, for such are the wages of svidomism.

    Replies: @A123, @Thulean Friend, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    “soldiers and poets, of artists and scholars” These are bloodsucking rent extractors of no value to society.

  643. @Philip Owen
    @Yellowface Anon

    China would suffer. China, SMEE, has just developed a stepper to make 28nm semiconductors, 1990's stuff. Russia has placed an order for Skolkovo. Fine but these things need surrounding ecosystems. China might have one. Russia doesn't.

    The East India Company did not threaten to chop off the hands of Indian cotton weavers. That was French propaganda to make their Maharshta proxies fight harder. The EIC made large profits on trading hand woven Indian cottons (muslins) which were far lighter than Manchester cotton. Manchester cotton was coarse and cheap in comparison. It sold in India to people too poor to but muslins.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    The decision to act militarily is made regardless of the overall economy’s readiness for broad sanctions. Look at Shanghai’s lockdown. Worse case (and Russia is converging to their level) it’ll be North Korea writ large.

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate, whether under communists or democrats. If China made stupid decisions their wish would be realized. And the Politburo might be blind to this fact.

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    • Replies: @216
    @Yellowface Anon


    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

     

    That's just revisionism by Hindu nationalists. They refuse to show gratitude to Britain for removing the Mughals, because of their tremendous anti-white racism and anti-Christianity.

    When independent, they build a nuclear triad before giving the people indoor plumbing.

    I will never accept moral blackmail from the Third World.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Vishnugupta

    , @Coconuts
    @Yellowface Anon


    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.
     
    The idea of proto-industrialisation in those areas is controversial, especially if it implies that they were on the brink of the kind of development seen in Western Europe in the era of industrialisation.

    IIRC in the mid 18th century Indian fabric producers already had a large share of the British market, and were exporting a lot to Europe. Britain blocked (or tried to) the importation of these fabrics to the home market, as British suppliers couldn't compete on cost of labour, but there was no block on the EIC exporting them to the rest of Europe, which they did. The change came when technological development in Britain meant that cost of labour plummeted and undercut the Indian production. This is when the Company switched to encouraging its Indian tenants to cultivate cotton to be sent to UK factories to be turned into fabric.

    Again as I understand it some Indians got poorer relatively because the Indian population was constantly growing and the prosperity of some of the European countries like Britain was undergoing a comparative surge.

    The whole involvement with India may turn out to have been fatal for the British population in the long run anyway:

    https://www.unz.com/sbpdl/two-years-after-black-lives-matter-total-victory-museums-in-england-seeing-decolonising-to-remove-specialist-museums-celebrating-knitting-and-cricket-history-of-their-white-racist-past/
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yellowface Anon


    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate
     
    95% paranoia. American elites sincerely feel that they are protecting and nurturing the world into something better. They would therefore be delighted if they thought that China would be a reliable partner as this would greatly ease their burden.

    The problem is that the CCP, by its nature, is an institution that obscures its intentions, avoids vigorous and open self-reflection, and promotes a culture of dishonest, thin-skinned jingoism.

    This is why China gets all of the worst allies. The only good one was Russia, but their government has turned out to be run by complete bunglers.

    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese. Chinese people in the US are an unbelievably protected and successful group. The fact that they have higher levels of what might be termed "introversion" than other groups will keep many from being famous and celebrated, but basically they have the best lives in the US. They are least likely to be victims of crime, have very high incomes and great health prospects. In fact, when COVID was spreading out of China, the US elites' primary concern was any potential reaction against the Chinese and they were encouraging people to patronise Chinese businesses and even hug Chinese people. And now you project your own hatred onto them, why?

    Of course, anyone at all plugged into CCP information streams will miss all of this as it doesn't accord well with paranoia, and institutions set up like the CCP are basically paranoia as an operating system.

    The good thing about paranoia as an operating system is that it boosts your feelings of pride and makes you look impressive. The bad thing is that it tends to collapse spectacularly and other people distrust you.

    For all of the faults of America, there is a reason why, even against economic interest, basically every country prefers to rely on the US. Those who are open about their vulnerabilities are simply more dependable than those whose primary concern is to hide them.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123

  644. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian


    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots.
     
    I love Russia and I love Russians, and I am partially against this war for this reason. You can see my comment history for proof.

    from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from.
     
    Russia has already lost the war.

    As for what happens to Russia once they leave their state of shock, disbelief and denial, it is up to them.

    No one is threatening their homeland.

    They have total agency.

    But the longer this defeat drags on, the worse the position from which they will start for a project of national renewal.

    And national renewal is what they need. It is clear from their disastrous military performance that the Putin project has been a dead end for quite some time. Perhaps 2010?

    Better that they get on with it now, on their vast landmass, as an organised evolution, rather than dirtily trying to scrub a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine and risk revolution and collapse.

    I don't know exactly what they should do, federalise, put Yandex in charge and take over the EU from within (?), but they have more than enough talent, if they actually try.


    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    It isn't being a "traitor" to oppose a foreign war which is bleeding out your military, destroying your economy and building a moral debt that your people may languish in guilt over for generations.

    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.
     
    No, I am fed up with this ridiculous Russian narrative of poor passive Russians always being victims.

    Russia could have done infinitely better in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Plenty of countries did and lacked Russian resources.

    Indeed, no one forced Russia into anything. They were entirely unthreatened. They had one hundred percent effective sovereignty.

    In other words, everything that happened in Russia is and was entirely their responsibility.

    Now, the point of admitting responsibility and agency is not so that you can be condemned, but so that you can do better next time and not ignorantly or pathetically repeat your mistakes.

    Critically, the narrative that Russians currently offer for their invasion of Ukraine is directly linked to the world accepting their self-pitying bullsh*t on the 90s. They claim that they couldn't help themselves, that they were helpless, in the face of Ukrainian "provocation." What a load of f*cking toxic nonsense.

    This is Jussie Smollett level stuff, or better heard from Amber Heard. It is pathological. I'd accept it from Congolese or Nigerians or whatever, indeed people like Mugabe specialised in this idiocy, but then I do not extend them the expectations that I have of civilised adults. For they are not, but Russians are.

    For Russians: live in reality. Stop with the pitiful historical excuses. Or histrionically latching onto whatever tiny "provocation" you can ruminate over, and actually be a civilised modern nation. Love requires it. This pathetic self-hatred of zero responsibility is killing your country. Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn't be so hard. You have infinite land, amazing resources and a people who only need to be empowered to get stuff done, while being inspired. This is straightforward stuff.

    Also, please don't take my talk of "responsibility" for a moral argument. I am not a moral being and do not make moral arguments. I am just talking about agency and avoiding self-deception. That is all.

    Replies: @Sean, @LatW, @Yevardian

    Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn’t be so hard

    https://youtu.be/tSBtFvoiYYI?t=110

  645. LatW says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian


    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots.
     
    I love Russia and I love Russians, and I am partially against this war for this reason. You can see my comment history for proof.

    from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from.
     
    Russia has already lost the war.

    As for what happens to Russia once they leave their state of shock, disbelief and denial, it is up to them.

    No one is threatening their homeland.

    They have total agency.

    But the longer this defeat drags on, the worse the position from which they will start for a project of national renewal.

    And national renewal is what they need. It is clear from their disastrous military performance that the Putin project has been a dead end for quite some time. Perhaps 2010?

    Better that they get on with it now, on their vast landmass, as an organised evolution, rather than dirtily trying to scrub a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine and risk revolution and collapse.

    I don't know exactly what they should do, federalise, put Yandex in charge and take over the EU from within (?), but they have more than enough talent, if they actually try.


    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    It isn't being a "traitor" to oppose a foreign war which is bleeding out your military, destroying your economy and building a moral debt that your people may languish in guilt over for generations.

    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.
     
    No, I am fed up with this ridiculous Russian narrative of poor passive Russians always being victims.

    Russia could have done infinitely better in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Plenty of countries did and lacked Russian resources.

    Indeed, no one forced Russia into anything. They were entirely unthreatened. They had one hundred percent effective sovereignty.

    In other words, everything that happened in Russia is and was entirely their responsibility.

    Now, the point of admitting responsibility and agency is not so that you can be condemned, but so that you can do better next time and not ignorantly or pathetically repeat your mistakes.

    Critically, the narrative that Russians currently offer for their invasion of Ukraine is directly linked to the world accepting their self-pitying bullsh*t on the 90s. They claim that they couldn't help themselves, that they were helpless, in the face of Ukrainian "provocation." What a load of f*cking toxic nonsense.

    This is Jussie Smollett level stuff, or better heard from Amber Heard. It is pathological. I'd accept it from Congolese or Nigerians or whatever, indeed people like Mugabe specialised in this idiocy, but then I do not extend them the expectations that I have of civilised adults. For they are not, but Russians are.

    For Russians: live in reality. Stop with the pitiful historical excuses. Or histrionically latching onto whatever tiny "provocation" you can ruminate over, and actually be a civilised modern nation. Love requires it. This pathetic self-hatred of zero responsibility is killing your country. Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn't be so hard. You have infinite land, amazing resources and a people who only need to be empowered to get stuff done, while being inspired. This is straightforward stuff.

    Also, please don't take my talk of "responsibility" for a moral argument. I am not a moral being and do not make moral arguments. I am just talking about agency and avoiding self-deception. That is all.

    Replies: @Sean, @LatW, @Yevardian

    put Yandex in charge

    Yandex are a bunch of hipsters whose values are very different from the 70% of the vatniks.

    And take over the EU from within (?),

    Er… no. I would suggest that those Western, especially American Russophiles who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments OR, alternately, physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia, accept the Orthodox (or shaman) religion and raise their offspring as Russians. But please do not touch the EU (which is not your business). This will be a better solution for us all. It looks like it’d be best if we separated.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @LatW


    who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments
     
    They're not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, "Euro Orthodox" imperialism and whatnot.

    physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia
     
    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs. You don't see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely "reformed" by the WEF.

    Replies: @LatW

  646. @S
    @songbird


    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts.
     
    I think some are too hard on the Scandis. Do they still wish they were going around all Europe like they were berserking? They sowed their oats for awhile, as everyone does, and then grew as peoples. Of course the past several decades they've been going down a wrong path, though they are certainly not alone.

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts. from the Viking's descendant colonies in Greenland to be fascinating.

    Replies: @songbird

    I think some are too hard on the Scandis.

    Those were the days of warriors, and I think they were under population pressures (makes me wonder about the future of Africa in 2100).

    [MORE]

    I must have a bit of Viking blood, but couldn’t see myself LARPing as one, because it doesn’t feel like a close connection. When I’ve thought of warriors, they were primarily Irish ones. Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland. The Hiberno-Norse gallowglasses helped serve as a check on Norman expansion because they provided the heavy infantry that the natives lacked.

    Kenneth Clark’s Civilisation had a sort of moving segment about Vikings, midway through the first episode, which included this passage:

    If one wants a symbol of Atlantic man, as opposed to Mediterranean man, a symbol to set against the Greek temple, then it must be the Viking ship. The Greek temple is static, solid, crystalline. The Viking ship is light, mobile, buoyant, floating like a waterlily.

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts.

    Many years ago, I remember being a young boy at the Dublin Zoo, and I was walking along the outside of the polar bear exhibit, eating an icecream, and directly across the moat, the polar bear was following me. Unquestionably, me specifically.

    I couldn’t resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat. Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.

    BTW, there is some castle in Czechia that has brown bears in the moat.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird


    Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland.
     
    Yes, and no doubt as you know, one of these contributions was John F Kennedy via his maternal ancestor, Gerald de Windsor, an Anglo-Norman. It's believed that Gerald de Windsor was born in Windsor Castle, yes the same castle Queen Elizabeth lives in today, in the 11th century.

    The Hiberno-Norman's who became 'more Irish than the Irish', as apparently the FitzGeralds did, were held in a certain amount of disdain/contempt by later arriving 'Plantation' English, and the English of England proper from what I've read. While it's known there was some antagonism between elements of the Jewish people and their hangers on over the perceived behaviour of Joseph Kennedy during WWII, what's less known is how the Kennedy's were seen by the remaining Anglo-Saxon power structure of the US in the early 1960's.

    Just a hypothesis, but, with their Catholocism and popularity, amongst other things, and taking their original maternal Anglo-Norman background into account, were the Kennedys seen as rebels, renegades, would be usurpers, even as 'traitors', by this remaining A-S elite?

    I've mentioned before, as commented upon by someone in the propaganda trade during WWII, how the purest and best propaganda is so subtle one doesn't even know it's there, particularly via its insertion into an entertaining movie.

    After the Kennedy assassination, people examining corporate mass media (ie television in particular) found evidence that someone (or something) other than Oswald seemed to have known in detail in advance what was going to happen regarding the JFK assassination, and had inserted this information into the plots of several television shows from the early 60's. Why exactly, I wouldn't know, but it's uncanny what they found. [I think there might have been more of an occult element operating in the background in regards to events such as the Kennedy assassination than many might feel comfortable acknowledging.]

    If you find that sort of thing interesting, just check out my past post archives when they intersect with the Kennedy assassination threads.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Windsor_Castle_at_Sunset_-_Nov_2006.jpg/320px-Windsor_Castle_at_Sunset_-_Nov_2006.jpg
    Windsor Castle

    He [Gerald de Windsor] was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland..


    Gerald de Windsor (c.1075 – 1135), alias Gerald FitzWalter, was an Anglo-Norman lord who was the first Castellan of Pembroke Castle in Pembrokeshire (formerly part of the Kingdom of Deheubarth), son of the Constable of Windsor Castle, and was in charge of the Norman forces in south-west Wales. He was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland...
     
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_de_Windsor

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Castle

    Replies: @songbird

    , @S
    @songbird


    I couldn’t resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat.
     
    Just as well. The polar bear probably needed to be on a diet anyhow.


    Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.
     
    Yes, as the old saying goes, 'Give a Polar Bear an inch, and they'll take your arm and leg. Hooray for barriers! :-)

    Replies: @A123

  647. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    How did they show their body building physiques up there in the land of the ice and snow?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s85y2M615PA

    Replies: @songbird

    Someone should make a parody of Viking time travelers coming into our time and seeing Heimdall, the whitest god, depicted by Idris Elba.

  648. It is very strange how there seems to be an advertising campaign for Ukraine in London and Dublin (and maybe other European capitals?)

    I’ve heard that it is basically money given to Ukraine funneled backwards. Making its way onto street posters and billboards, often one after another, so that you would think you are in another country, at war.

    There’s something really unsavory about it, IMO. I mean, imagine if it is not only arms dealers that want to keep the conflict going, but advertising firms.

    And it’s really weird because advertising is normally uniformly, extremely anti-nationalist, and here everything is wrapped in a flag, though a foreign and alien one, and one not your own.

  649. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    He is incorrect on that point. Soviets and Germans destroyed tons of "their" own cities in WW2 with artillery, Allied bombings killed 60k Frenchmen, etc.

    Anyhow, it's not like it will matter one way or another. If Russia wins, it's irrelevant. If Russia loses, then a decades-long wall of hatred between Ukrainians and Russians will be objectively desirable in any case (Ukrainians will have more fuel for nation-building, Ukrainian hatred will sabotage the Russian traitors who will likely rule post-Putin beseeching readmission into the West).

    Replies: @AP

    He is incorrect on that point. Soviets and Germans destroyed tons of “their” own cities in WW2 with artillery, Allied bombings killed 60k Frenchmen, etc.

    Good point.

    Anyhow, it’s not like it will matter one way or another. If Russia wins, it’s irrelevant.

    It will make occupation harder and more costly, when the population despises you. Sabotage, looking the other way, not to mention open resistance.

    If Russia loses, then a decades-long wall of hatred between Ukrainians and Russians will be objectively desirable in any case (Ukrainians will have more fuel for nation-building, Ukrainian hatred will sabotage the Russian traitors who will likely rule post-Putin beseeching readmission into the West).

    Win-win for the nationalists, I guess.

  650. @LatW
    @Triteleia Laxa


    put Yandex in charge
     
    Yandex are a bunch of hipsters whose values are very different from the 70% of the vatniks.

    And take over the EU from within (?),
     
    Er... no. I would suggest that those Western, especially American Russophiles who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments OR, alternately, physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia, accept the Orthodox (or shaman) religion and raise their offspring as Russians. But please do not touch the EU (which is not your business). This will be a better solution for us all. It looks like it'd be best if we separated.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments

    They’re not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, “Euro Orthodox” imperialism and whatnot.

    physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia

    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs. You don’t see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely “reformed” by the WEF.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Yellowface Anon


    They’re not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, “Euro Orthodox” imperialism and whatnot.
     
    Of course, I'm aware of that. Except their non-nationalist peers won't accept the Orthodox customs. My point was more along the lines of creating one's own solutions from the ground up as opposed to telling others what they should be doing (and who or what they should be accepting), as if that's going to save anyone.


    There are fantastic options in the US itself, such as moving to Idaho (one can build whole new communities there from scratch, if one wanted, it's partly already being done there).

    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs.
     
    Agree. The post-work world is already here. It will still involve work, of course, just in different forms.
    There are a ton of articles out there about how people are starting to prioritize their "health & mental wellbeing" above work. 4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March. Not all of them will move on to another job.

    There are many spaces out there that can be semi-secluded (including within the EU). Some people are already moving into alternative arrangements, some on the country side where they can work on their own terms. Whole communities can be created to enjoy fresh air and mental peace.

    You don’t see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely “reformed” by the WEF.
     
    I do see the benefits of economic isolation, as long as there is enough education available for the children and there is internet and decent transportation. However, younger peeps in their early 20s and possibly 30s will want to live in a somewhat "globalist" economy. I don't know what you mean by "reformed" by WEF, do you mean that certain professions or trades will no longer be available? Or that people won't be able to extricate themselves from dead end jobs?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  651. LatW says:
    @songbird
    @LatW


    there is a theme around Svantovit (they cruise by Arkona). Is it possible that the American youth have become interested in that for some reason?
     
    I don't know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths. (Now, this is kind of an interesting thing here - I don't think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West, but it is notable how they created a video game did, albeit one based on novels.)

    To a certain extent, nationalists seem to have gotten into the books. I only read one, and frankly I was disappointed in it. To me, it seemed really woke. (And people would laugh at me for saying that). But it seemed to have strong feminist themes, and I didn't like how it seemed to emphasize racial conflict and tensions between humans and elves (even though maybe that would be realistic.)

    Definitely not a fan of cornrows. Reminds me of a girl I once knew who went on a winter vacation in Ecuador and came back deeply tanned and with cornrows. Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.

    BTW, from glancing through the Irish annals, I get the idea that Vikings were pretty violent. But, of course, in general the writings favored military engagements and other conflicts. I heard an historian once say that Vikings and Irish were pretty similar, only different in the way that they would treat churches and the clergy.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.

    Replies: @S, @LatW

    I don’t know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths.

    Maybe, and the interest may not be that far spread, it’s purely anecdotal on my side (encountering Westerners who shouldn’t know about certain titles, for instance, but they do). It could be that they might be watching something on their YouTube feed and it brings them to similar but more rare titles.

    [MORE]

    I don’t think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West

    Don’t know vis a vis the West, but the Polish novel and movie Quo Vadis is quite popular in Eastern Europe. The movie was a bit scary to watch and not too relaxing (meaning it had painful, realistic scenes, with European film one has to be engaged fully, it’s not just senseless entertainment).

    Yes, The Witcher struck me as surprisingly woke, but it might be that they’re catering to a younger audience.

    Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.

    Yea, I’ve seen some people that I previously liked do that and it’s just not a flattering look at all. But they’ve tried to incorporate this more “tribal” look in these viking / ancient NW Euro movies. Unfortunately, it makes pagans look Wiccan (which they weren’t). This tribalization is meant to make the characters more “primitive” and thus more exotic maybe? Otherwise, I don’t really mind it that much, it’s interesting and entertaining, although they slightly overdid it in the Vikings, they could’ve just done the fade hairstyle with longer hair on top (that’s archeologically quite accurate apparently). But most fans really seem to like these newly discovered hairstyles.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.

    Yes, absolutely, that’s one of my favorite parts, too. And collective chants, all that.

    No, I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming. Rollo’s jump with an axe is superb. It’s entertaining (even funny). It’s just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild. Well, that was the point it seems.

    For example, Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games where he was made to appear like an evil young white guy (“the blonde beast” or something). Maybe I’m seeing too much in it…

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational. But then that would be kind of boring, so they try to make it more captivating by turning them into real beasts. No, I don’t mind, lol.

    Btw, there is a stunning redhead in the later series, Princess Aslaug. Maybe not so much the type that you may like, she doesn’t look like an etherial fairy, she’s more of a statuesque, regal type. The actress is of British descent from Australia (with a Scottish last name, Sutherland).

    • Replies: @songbird
    @LatW


    And collective chants, all that.
     
    Wish I knew the clan battlecry of my patrilineal line. There's something awesome about battlefield traditions, but I don't think that it survives.

    In reference to your distaste for the bloody fighters, the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today (somewhat ironically by Protestants). Its origin is disputed. Some say the Normans invented it. Others that the O'Neills took it from an ancient ancestor, who, during a hard-fought battle grabbed the standard of his enemy with his bloody hand, leaving the mark of his blood upon it.

    I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming.
     
    For me, it starts to devolve, when the two sides get closer. I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass. Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I've never seen that. I think pitched battles were all day affairs, from dawn to dusk, with a lot of people fleeing.

    Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games
     
    The Hunger Games? I think I saw one of them, but don't really remember it.

    It’s just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild.
     
    The berserker is a popular trope, I think.

    And I think it is true to a certain extent. Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush, and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery.

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational.
     
    Some say that we weren't always that way.

    BTW, I wouldn't blame you for being a bit paranoid about it. Pretty easy to perceive some level of animus out of Hollywood. (And which I think is real) Though, I think the lack of Euro cultural production is mostly related to something that Hanania would probably say. I.e., it has something to do with civil rights laws, and the political and legal environment. I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.

    Replies: @LatW

  652. LatW says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @LatW


    who feel a sense of urgency about Russians being in charge anywhere outside of RusFed, put the Russians in charge of their own governments
     
    They're not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, "Euro Orthodox" imperialism and whatnot.

    physically move to the Far Eastern areas of Russia
     
    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs. You don't see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely "reformed" by the WEF.

    Replies: @LatW

    They’re not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, “Euro Orthodox” imperialism and whatnot.

    Of course, I’m aware of that. Except their non-nationalist peers won’t accept the Orthodox customs. My point was more along the lines of creating one’s own solutions from the ground up as opposed to telling others what they should be doing (and who or what they should be accepting), as if that’s going to save anyone.

    [MORE]

    There are fantastic options in the US itself, such as moving to Idaho (one can build whole new communities there from scratch, if one wanted, it’s partly already being done there).

    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs.

    Agree. The post-work world is already here. It will still involve work, of course, just in different forms.
    There are a ton of articles out there about how people are starting to prioritize their “health & mental wellbeing” above work. 4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March. Not all of them will move on to another job.

    There are many spaces out there that can be semi-secluded (including within the EU). Some people are already moving into alternative arrangements, some on the country side where they can work on their own terms. Whole communities can be created to enjoy fresh air and mental peace.

    You don’t see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely “reformed” by the WEF.

    I do see the benefits of economic isolation, as long as there is enough education available for the children and there is internet and decent transportation. However, younger peeps in their early 20s and possibly 30s will want to live in a somewhat “globalist” economy. I don’t know what you mean by “reformed” by WEF, do you mean that certain professions or trades will no longer be available? Or that people won’t be able to extricate themselves from dead end jobs?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @LatW


    Agree.
     
    I'm trying to contrast what Western Europe and much of North America would look like in 2030 , a place where:

    - Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available
    - Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void
    - Intensification of wokeness with more "diverse" populations on Western soil
    - Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    These can be good or bad developments based on your ideology and those dissenting will exit to a place that more resembles the 00s or even the 80s, in this case a Russia that's stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.


    the benefits of economic isolation
     
    See the "technological and economic stasis" point above.

    Replies: @LatW, @Emil Nikola Richard

  653. Time to0 learn the truth and destroy the lies:

  654. 216 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen

    The decision to act militarily is made regardless of the overall economy's readiness for broad sanctions. Look at Shanghai's lockdown. Worse case (and Russia is converging to their level) it'll be North Korea writ large.

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate, whether under communists or democrats. If China made stupid decisions their wish would be realized. And the Politburo might be blind to this fact.

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    Replies: @216, @Coconuts, @Triteleia Laxa

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    That’s just revisionism by Hindu nationalists. They refuse to show gratitude to Britain for removing the Mughals, because of their tremendous anti-white racism and anti-Christianity.

    When independent, they build a nuclear triad before giving the people indoor plumbing.

    I will never accept moral blackmail from the Third World.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @216

    It's ok, I'll make you join the Third World & then morally blackmail you about it||

    https://twitter.com/JDKnox4/status/1455523371827990530?s=20&t=uNd6SpCETVEOjfeQSdLFmQ

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Vishnugupta
    @216

    The biggest indigenous power on the subcontinent at the dawn of British rule was the Maratha Empire who in the preceeding 70 years had systematically reduced the Mughal Empire to glorified kings of Delhi.

    I find alternate history to be a fool's pastime but the absence of British rule would likely have led to a unified subcontinent(Marathas at their greatest held sway over roughly 70% of South Asia) and a Hindu reconquista of the subcontinent.

    So no gratitude is warranted.At all.

    And its great that we like the Chinese built nuclear weapons before the majority of our people got indoor plumbing.

    Its the only proven way to safeguard one's independence something which 100-200 years of West European rule will make you value immensely.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  655. @LatW
    @Yellowface Anon


    They’re not about wanting Russia to win but the US (whoever is in control of it) to lose harshly. And they will receive the Russian political outlook with open arms, “Euro Orthodox” imperialism and whatnot.
     
    Of course, I'm aware of that. Except their non-nationalist peers won't accept the Orthodox customs. My point was more along the lines of creating one's own solutions from the ground up as opposed to telling others what they should be doing (and who or what they should be accepting), as if that's going to save anyone.


    There are fantastic options in the US itself, such as moving to Idaho (one can build whole new communities there from scratch, if one wanted, it's partly already being done there).

    In a decade it could be an attractive deal to leave the transhumanist post-work woke caste utopia behind, to build your low-tech peasant log cabin in a sea of Whites and based POCs.
     
    Agree. The post-work world is already here. It will still involve work, of course, just in different forms.
    There are a ton of articles out there about how people are starting to prioritize their "health & mental wellbeing" above work. 4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March. Not all of them will move on to another job.

    There are many spaces out there that can be semi-secluded (including within the EU). Some people are already moving into alternative arrangements, some on the country side where they can work on their own terms. Whole communities can be created to enjoy fresh air and mental peace.

    You don’t see the blessing in the form of economic isolation, because those staying connected to the Globalist economic order will be completely “reformed” by the WEF.
     
    I do see the benefits of economic isolation, as long as there is enough education available for the children and there is internet and decent transportation. However, younger peeps in their early 20s and possibly 30s will want to live in a somewhat "globalist" economy. I don't know what you mean by "reformed" by WEF, do you mean that certain professions or trades will no longer be available? Or that people won't be able to extricate themselves from dead end jobs?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Agree.

    I’m trying to contrast what Western Europe and much of North America would look like in 2030 , a place where:

    – Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available
    – Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void
    – Intensification of wokeness with more “diverse” populations on Western soil
    – Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    These can be good or bad developments based on your ideology and those dissenting will exit to a place that more resembles the 00s or even the 80s, in this case a Russia that’s stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.

    the benefits of economic isolation

    See the “technological and economic stasis” point above.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Yellowface Anon


    2030.. Transhuman biological and electronic augmentation will be increasingly available
     
    In just 7 and a half years we'll have something readily available that will drastically change things? Well, maybe some wearables & supplements / pharmaceuticals.


    UBI will fill up the void
     
    There will always be people who will need or want more than that, and they will want to mingle with the middle class, e.g., normal people, not necessarily live in some secluded meritocratic elite.

    Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions
     
    This already exists to some extent, but it is up to the Western Europeans to decide if they want to live that way (and if they're able to counter the global trends). Many Western Europeans are egalitarian. More so than the Americans, many Russians or certain Asians. So the social consensus is probably still open on that.

    in this case a Russia that’s stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.
     
    This can be done in the EU as well, based on one's preferences. Except in the EU, one can choose which lifestyle to live, if you don't end up liking the country, you can go back to your city lifestyle. Many Russians may be more limited that way, under the scenario you mention. Btw, in the Baltic States, the price of the agrarian land is rising (both as investment & lifestyle / recreational).
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Yellowface Anon


    Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available
     
    Smart phones in current form may be 99% of all that humans are ever going to make use of:

    1. although many of us are seamlessly attached to phones many don't care about them at all;
    2. a large fraction of the plausible science fiction is pretty meh about biological and electronic augmentation. In Permutation City they take away the AI's suicide capability because any one with a viable option to do so pulls the plug on themself instantly.

    When I was eight years old I wanted to be like Superman. But if you think about it for five seconds you realize that if Superman ever put some effort into banging Lois Lane she would break into pieces instantly and nobody with an adult brain would ever want to be Superman.

    Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void
     
    Nobody wants to be on welfare or whatever you want to call it; people and the market are more innovative than Bill Gates' stupid futurism committee.

    Intensification of wokeness with more “diverse” populations on Western soil
     
    Maybe. Maybe not.


    Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions
     
    Social status hierarchy is a constant from time zero to now so the increasingly here is arbitrary and subjective.

    There isn't any crypto currency on your list.

    Even bigger huger gap: chaos magic. Things are maybe going to get so weird our grandparents won't even recognize it as earth and humans.

    No space travel? That's right. The only people going to space are going to be a puny fraction of the armed forces occupying the highest battleground.

    https://www.amazon.com/Liber-Kaos-Peter-J-Carroll/dp/0877287422/
  656. 216 says: • Website
    @S
    @Sean


    It was not FDR but Hitler who saved the alliance by declaring war on the United States on the afternoon of 11 December. Then, as now, it was our antagonists who were left with the choice of whether to escalate from economic to military confrontation.
     
    That's a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

    And with the sinking of the Moscow and the fast patrol boats in the Black Sea has the US been involved in an undeclared naval war against Russia?

    A person can say and ask these things without being either 'pro Hitler' or 'pro Putin'.

    In July 1941, in a top secret memo to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Harold Stark, President Roosevelt authorized the Atlantic Fleet to change from defensive to offensive operations, writing, in part, “…the presence of any German submarine or raider should be dealt with by action looking to the elimination of such ‘threat of attack’ on the lines of communication, or close to it.”

    On Sept. 1, 1941, King issued Operation Plan 7-41. Stamped “Secret,” it was distributed to the ten task forces and four patrols under his command and contained the unconditional order to “destroy hostile forces that threaten shipping…” Four days later, the USS Greer, a World War I-era destroyer, narrowly escaped being torpedoed by U-552 off the coast of Iceland. Roosevelt issued a public warning to Nazi Germany and Italy: “If German or Italian vessels of war enter the waters . . . necessary for American defense, they do so at their own peril.”

     

    https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/undeclared-war-in-the-atlantic-the-u-s-navy-versus-the-u-boats/

    Replies: @216

    That’s a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

    International law is liberal pablum. I do not recognize its legitimacy.

    The US was a co-belligerent from the enactment of Lend-Lease and Destroyers-for-bases.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @216

    worse. The US was privately telling the Poles to fight the Germans.

    Replies: @Sean

  657. @216
    @S


    That’s a bit disingenuous. The US had for months upon its own volition (and in violation of international law) been in an undeclared naval war with Germany prior to Dec 11.

     

    International law is liberal pablum. I do not recognize its legitimacy.

    The US was a co-belligerent from the enactment of Lend-Lease and Destroyers-for-bases.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    worse. The US was privately telling the Poles to fight the Germans.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Wokechoke

    Simms cited the latest mainstream research for Hitler having been forced to attack Poland. Hitler wanted Poland's cooperation for an attack on Russia, which was to be conquered and the Volga turned into Germany's Mississippi. He attacked Poland because it refused. If Japan had attacked Russia during the early months of Barbarossa, then Russia would have been defeated. It was the prospect of Japan doing that which made American strategists frantic, and determined to find a way of keeping Russia in the War by distracting them with a US-Japan war. By November 1941 Hitler knew (is recorded as having told a general) that a final victory of the type he was aiming for could no longer be attained. Weeks later Hitler issued the order for the Final Solution and declarered war on America, which he always saw as his main enemy. In WW2 the Soviets were given 400,000 trucks by the US and still had logistical problems. They also were extremely and unsustainably profligate with their manpower. Not much has changed apparently.

  658. @Philip Owen
    @LondonBob

    At short notice resource allocation would have been a problem. Also the terrain favours blitzkrieg. The big question is why the route to Crimea wasn't blown, bridges and all. Treachery?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    You don’t read maps well. The Izium War Path and teh Muravsky Trail allow a route from Moscow to Sevastapol without crossing a river.

    The Crim used it on their slave raids into the Russian interior and the cities of Belgorod and Kharkov were founded to block the horse armies that wintered in Crimea from approaching Moscow unopposed.

    The Land Bridge is a Literal Landbridge.

    If there was any betrayal it was in the staff colleges where map reading wasn’t taught to the Ukies. I think you can drive a tank from Moscow to Sevastapol without crossing unfordable water. Izyum itself is the only tough ford.

  659. LatW says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @LatW


    Agree.
     
    I'm trying to contrast what Western Europe and much of North America would look like in 2030 , a place where:

    - Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available
    - Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void
    - Intensification of wokeness with more "diverse" populations on Western soil
    - Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    These can be good or bad developments based on your ideology and those dissenting will exit to a place that more resembles the 00s or even the 80s, in this case a Russia that's stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.


    the benefits of economic isolation
     
    See the "technological and economic stasis" point above.

    Replies: @LatW, @Emil Nikola Richard

    2030.. Transhuman biological and electronic augmentation will be increasingly available

    In just 7 and a half years we’ll have something readily available that will drastically change things? Well, maybe some wearables & supplements / pharmaceuticals.

    [MORE]

    UBI will fill up the void

    There will always be people who will need or want more than that, and they will want to mingle with the middle class, e.g., normal people, not necessarily live in some secluded meritocratic elite.

    Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    This already exists to some extent, but it is up to the Western Europeans to decide if they want to live that way (and if they’re able to counter the global trends). Many Western Europeans are egalitarian. More so than the Americans, many Russians or certain Asians. So the social consensus is probably still open on that.

    in this case a Russia that’s stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.

    This can be done in the EU as well, based on one’s preferences. Except in the EU, one can choose which lifestyle to live, if you don’t end up liking the country, you can go back to your city lifestyle. Many Russians may be more limited that way, under the scenario you mention. Btw, in the Baltic States, the price of the agrarian land is rising (both as investment & lifestyle / recreational).

  660. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian


    Please stop pretending you care about Russia, don’t take everyone here for fucking idiots.
     
    I love Russia and I love Russians, and I am partially against this war for this reason. You can see my comment history for proof.

    from the Russian national point of view losing this war could be a catastrophe they’d never recover from.
     
    Russia has already lost the war.

    As for what happens to Russia once they leave their state of shock, disbelief and denial, it is up to them.

    No one is threatening their homeland.

    They have total agency.

    But the longer this defeat drags on, the worse the position from which they will start for a project of national renewal.

    And national renewal is what they need. It is clear from their disastrous military performance that the Putin project has been a dead end for quite some time. Perhaps 2010?

    Better that they get on with it now, on their vast landmass, as an organised evolution, rather than dirtily trying to scrub a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine and risk revolution and collapse.

    I don't know exactly what they should do, federalise, put Yandex in charge and take over the EU from within (?), but they have more than enough talent, if they actually try.


    Expecting Russians to turn traitor when facing an existential crisis?
     
    It isn't being a "traitor" to oppose a foreign war which is bleeding out your military, destroying your economy and building a moral debt that your people may languish in guilt over for generations.

    Anyway, don’t act like the West would impose anything but a Carthaginian peace. Read some actual history and look what happened last time Russia surrendered in a conflict with the West.
     
    No, I am fed up with this ridiculous Russian narrative of poor passive Russians always being victims.

    Russia could have done infinitely better in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Plenty of countries did and lacked Russian resources.

    Indeed, no one forced Russia into anything. They were entirely unthreatened. They had one hundred percent effective sovereignty.

    In other words, everything that happened in Russia is and was entirely their responsibility.

    Now, the point of admitting responsibility and agency is not so that you can be condemned, but so that you can do better next time and not ignorantly or pathetically repeat your mistakes.

    Critically, the narrative that Russians currently offer for their invasion of Ukraine is directly linked to the world accepting their self-pitying bullsh*t on the 90s. They claim that they couldn't help themselves, that they were helpless, in the face of Ukrainian "provocation." What a load of f*cking toxic nonsense.

    This is Jussie Smollett level stuff, or better heard from Amber Heard. It is pathological. I'd accept it from Congolese or Nigerians or whatever, indeed people like Mugabe specialised in this idiocy, but then I do not extend them the expectations that I have of civilised adults. For they are not, but Russians are.

    For Russians: live in reality. Stop with the pitiful historical excuses. Or histrionically latching onto whatever tiny "provocation" you can ruminate over, and actually be a civilised modern nation. Love requires it. This pathetic self-hatred of zero responsibility is killing your country. Sometimes love seems harsh, but true love requires clarity and hiding from reality obscures everything important. Really, it shouldn't be so hard. You have infinite land, amazing resources and a people who only need to be empowered to get stuff done, while being inspired. This is straightforward stuff.

    Also, please don't take my talk of "responsibility" for a moral argument. I am not a moral being and do not make moral arguments. I am just talking about agency and avoiding self-deception. That is all.

    Replies: @Sean, @LatW, @Yevardian

    You’re misinterpeting my words. I’m not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You’re the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao. There is and has never been such thing as ‘people power’, populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that’s already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters ‘disappeared’ in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn’t be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it’s hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn’t go so far to say ‘to understand all, is to forgive all’, but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol ‘taking over EU from within’, you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren’t you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America’s invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can’t either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that’s in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can’t expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I’d closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to ‘rebuild’ the country in the event it manages to hold most of it’s territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    • Thanks: S, Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yevardian


    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack
     
    Nuclear weapon possession protects against nuclear first use attack. Whether it would protect against conventional war by a another nuclear power or not is uncertain, and neither Nato or the Soviet Union behaved as if they believed it did

    South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    The South Africans were fighting in Rhodesia and in Angola, but key to Apartheid becoming unsustainable was the growth of the black population as a proportion of the total population. The USSR experienced a particularly great increase in the Muslim population, and Russia, thinking it would continue to be respected as a first rate power by the West, became preoccupied with the threat of Islamic Jihadists in former Soviet territories.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival
     
    Security is a zero sum game and the losers bleat, but would they act differently were the shoe on the other foot? Has Russia treated Ukraine in accordance with the Golden Rule?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian

    Many supposed "realists" think that their worldview is clear-sighted, while really they keep one eye closed.

    You seem incapable of noticing the difference between love, kindness and other forms of spiritually exulted feeling, and "morals." Thus, in trying to remove the murky, dishonest bathwater of "right and wrong", you also jettison the baby.

    This means that your perspective is constantly folding in on itself, for it attaches to no meaning. And in the scrabble and confusion of this chaotic nonsense, you constantly grab onto the most extreme examples of what you deny.

    Instead, of some basic moral framework, you end up making bizarre and fanatical moralistic pronouncements. And instead of noticing and appreciating emotion, which is a vernacular of the spiritual language, you end up in hysteria.

    You are constantly chasing your own tail.


    I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    No, you're not "pointing" it out. That would involve giving some mechanisms for why it is true. Instead, you work yourself up into an insane hysteria over it and then get outraged when I state the 2 obvious points:

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I've said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao.
     
    I actually said the opposite. I talked about evolution. I don't know how exactly such evolution will come, but I do know, for the reasons given above, that it will certainly come. Furthermore, I also know that people form countries, not arcane hidden forces, and that therefore the people, collectively in Russia, though not equally, will decide their future.

    Please don't descend into complete projective outrage where you start talking to your own shadow again. It makes me cringe. Do better and own yourself.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability?
     
    Total fantasy. The USSR had a bigger population than the US. Now it has one that is considerably less than half and dwindling, while the US continues to grow. There is no comparison. Even if you subscribe to your spiritually-bereft worldview, you have no point to make.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    Since you have a broken perspective, you are incapable of seeing why Apartheid was shrugged off and have to rely on conspiracy as an explanation instead.

    Well here's the truth, and it is as true about you, as most of everyone else: people do not like being so systematically cruel to other people as whites were to blacks under apartheid. It feels awful.

    Now people will accept feeling awful if the alternative is the even worse feeling of their lives being destroyed, their families being killed or similar, but that doesn't change the fact that being white in apartheid felt oppressive.

    This meant that once it became clear, with the fall of the USSR, that murderous communism would not take over and that there would be a reasonable degree of social peace, it was white South Africans who undid the political system. They themselves yearned to feel joy, kindness and love, specifically their own. Is this really so hard for you to understand? Or are you blind to your own heart?

    Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow
     
    I understand the self-pitying narrative, and actually I am cool with self-pity, but not if it gets in the way of considered action, and it always gets in the way of considered action when it is used to obscure agency.

    Most people walk around with most of their multitude of perceptions closed. This is because they wrap themselves in fear and panic and ignorance. Beckow is one such individual. He dwells in pathetic resentment.

    Now, underneath it all, he truly is a gold and shiny being, but probably won't exist as such for many, many lifetimes. And I really can't be bothered with that.

    So, let me state clearly: Russians, as a collective body of people, face a choice. They can either continue with this mawdlin narrative that just leads to cycle after cycle of the same mistake, or they can grasp their own agency and evolve into something much better. I can't make them leave Ukraine. I can't make their future more than an endless loop of misery, but I can point out what is happening, how to avoid it and hope that they collectively do better.

    I wish them all of the courage that they deserve from themselves, which is so much more than enough.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Sean

    , @A123
    @Yevardian


    There is and has never been such thing as ‘people power’, populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that’s already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters ‘disappeared’ in the aftermath.
     
    I mostly concur.

    The U.S. Revolution was led by the immensely wealthy George Washington. He succeeded in gaining the backing of the French government, who wished to undermine Britain. The U.S. succeeded as the new rulers were much better than the old.

    Terminology becomes a bit muddy in this area. I would argue that the U.S. Revolution was Populist as it was "For the People", even though George Washington was not one of them. However, it was not "People Power" as defined in Communist/Socialist dogma.

    Communist/Socialist "People Power" does exist, and such revolutions do occasionally lead to a change in government. This is usually a complete disaster, as new leadership has no competency in national scale administration. The more or less complete collapse of Zimbabwe illustrates the consequences of a Communist/Socialist "People Power" revolution.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Beckow
    @Yevardian

    Good overview.


    ...winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    Right, this is it. Russia has the means to defeat Ukraine, destroy EU and probably the rest of the world with it. So why not call their bluff? Maybe they will just surrender because, why not?

    former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich
     
    Havel family was already rich before 1945 - they owned a lot of central Prague real estate, land-lords. Havel's uncle was an infamous WWII German collaborator who run the Barrandov movie studios for the Nazis, and as part of the job provided Prague "starlets" as entertainment. Commies were very lenient with them, taking some properties (not all), and asking young Havel to get a real job - he chose to be a theatre stage-hand with his contacts. After 1989, Havels received their real estate back. Good deal overall for them.

    It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.
     
    It doesn't. Nothing explains my opinions, you are being too linear. The same longing for the golden generation Social Democracy exists in Western Europe, and in the last few years also in the US. Nobody really likes neo-liberalism. There is no reason for an explanation, neo-liberalim is an ass..ole variant of capitalism that combines the worst features with society abandonment that borders on the idiotic "abolish the state" of early communists. Most Europeans see it about the same.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  661. Sean says:
    @Wokechoke
    @216

    worse. The US was privately telling the Poles to fight the Germans.

    Replies: @Sean

    Simms cited the latest mainstream research for Hitler having been forced to attack Poland. Hitler wanted Poland’s cooperation for an attack on Russia, which was to be conquered and the Volga turned into Germany’s Mississippi. He attacked Poland because it refused. If Japan had attacked Russia during the early months of Barbarossa, then Russia would have been defeated. It was the prospect of Japan doing that which made American strategists frantic, and determined to find a way of keeping Russia in the War by distracting them with a US-Japan war. By November 1941 Hitler knew (is recorded as having told a general) that a final victory of the type he was aiming for could no longer be attained. Weeks later Hitler issued the order for the Final Solution and declarered war on America, which he always saw as his main enemy. In WW2 the Soviets were given 400,000 trucks by the US and still had logistical problems. They also were extremely and unsustainably profligate with their manpower. Not much has changed apparently.

  662. Sean says:
    @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You're misinterpeting my words. I'm not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You're the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I'm simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how 'unpopular' he is and 'give up', imao. There is and has never been such thing as 'people power', populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that's already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters 'disappeared' in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn't be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe's golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former 'dissidents' like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it's hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn't go so far to say 'to understand all, is to forgive all', but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol 'taking over EU from within', you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren't you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America's invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don't you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can't either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that's in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can't expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I'd closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to 'rebuild' the country in the event it manages to hold most of it's territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa's old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa, @A123, @Beckow

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack

    Nuclear weapon possession protects against nuclear first use attack. Whether it would protect against conventional war by a another nuclear power or not is uncertain, and neither Nato or the Soviet Union behaved as if they believed it did

    South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    The South Africans were fighting in Rhodesia and in Angola, but key to Apartheid becoming unsustainable was the growth of the black population as a proportion of the total population. The USSR experienced a particularly great increase in the Muslim population, and Russia, thinking it would continue to be respected as a first rate power by the West, became preoccupied with the threat of Islamic Jihadists in former Soviet territories.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival

    Security is a zero sum game and the losers bleat, but would they act differently were the shoe on the other foot? Has Russia treated Ukraine in accordance with the Golden Rule?

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Yes they did. Or at least they treated Ukies like the English treated the Scots. See "Scottish Raj"

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

  663. @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen

    The decision to act militarily is made regardless of the overall economy's readiness for broad sanctions. Look at Shanghai's lockdown. Worse case (and Russia is converging to their level) it'll be North Korea writ large.

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate, whether under communists or democrats. If China made stupid decisions their wish would be realized. And the Politburo might be blind to this fact.

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    Replies: @216, @Coconuts, @Triteleia Laxa

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    The idea of proto-industrialisation in those areas is controversial, especially if it implies that they were on the brink of the kind of development seen in Western Europe in the era of industrialisation.

    IIRC in the mid 18th century Indian fabric producers already had a large share of the British market, and were exporting a lot to Europe. Britain blocked (or tried to) the importation of these fabrics to the home market, as British suppliers couldn’t compete on cost of labour, but there was no block on the EIC exporting them to the rest of Europe, which they did. The change came when technological development in Britain meant that cost of labour plummeted and undercut the Indian production. This is when the Company switched to encouraging its Indian tenants to cultivate cotton to be sent to UK factories to be turned into fabric.

    Again as I understand it some Indians got poorer relatively because the Indian population was constantly growing and the prosperity of some of the European countries like Britain was undergoing a comparative surge.

    The whole involvement with India may turn out to have been fatal for the British population in the long run anyway:

    https://www.unz.com/sbpdl/two-years-after-black-lives-matter-total-victory-museums-in-england-seeing-decolonising-to-remove-specialist-museums-celebrating-knitting-and-cricket-history-of-their-white-racist-past/

  664. @216
    @Yellowface Anon


    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

     

    That's just revisionism by Hindu nationalists. They refuse to show gratitude to Britain for removing the Mughals, because of their tremendous anti-white racism and anti-Christianity.

    When independent, they build a nuclear triad before giving the people indoor plumbing.

    I will never accept moral blackmail from the Third World.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Vishnugupta

    It’s ok, I’ll make you join the Third World & then morally blackmail you about it||

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @sher singh

    This is the interesting bit. Yes the US has a big GDP but 45,000,000 blacks and an increasing 60,000,000 Mexicans....what does this GDP count really?

  665. Re: Below Linked May 5 WABC New York Talk Radio Show

    When considering the neocon/neolib take of Russia-Ukraine, Richard Bey did a good job.

    As a follow-up, it should’ve been noted that the US armed forces don’t merge militias with neo-Nazi views and symbols. Also, Janet Yellen saying that the EU will suffer more than Russia without the latter’s energy. Never mind the global impact of the overall anti-Russian sanctions, adding that Russia has plenty of energy and food for itself, in addition to having the rep of being able to take deprivation better than many others.

    Objection about calling this incident neo-Nazi after the guy says the person he attacked looked Russian, while not liking his accent, is a bit too much to take.

    https://nypost.com/2022/05/03/ukrainian-man-stabbed-for-speaking-russian-in-brooklyn-bar-brawl/

    Found the mention of Russia possibly using chemical weapons and/or nukes on the tabloid side, given that others could potentially do the same and the dubious claim of such in Syria, regarding chemical weapons.

    As the comment at the end on Biden, I’ll borrow the spin after Biden’s negative comments about Putin, concerning an emotional factor – a difference being that I don’t hold high office – once again noting the kind of venom unleashed on Trump.

    The actual quote from Putin:

    https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191843730.001.0001/q-oro-ed5-00016963

    “Anyone who doesn’t regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.” Putin’s other often referenced quote on the USSR demise, has to do with the level of suffering which happened in the way it broke up.

    When at link, scroll down a bit.

    https://wabcradio.com/episode/richard-bey-michael-averko-5-5-22/

  666. @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You're misinterpeting my words. I'm not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You're the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I'm simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how 'unpopular' he is and 'give up', imao. There is and has never been such thing as 'people power', populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that's already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters 'disappeared' in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn't be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe's golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former 'dissidents' like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it's hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn't go so far to say 'to understand all, is to forgive all', but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol 'taking over EU from within', you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren't you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America's invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don't you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can't either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that's in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can't expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I'd closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to 'rebuild' the country in the event it manages to hold most of it's territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa's old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa, @A123, @Beckow

    Many supposed “realists” think that their worldview is clear-sighted, while really they keep one eye closed.

    You seem incapable of noticing the difference between love, kindness and other forms of spiritually exulted feeling, and “morals.” Thus, in trying to remove the murky, dishonest bathwater of “right and wrong”, you also jettison the baby.

    This means that your perspective is constantly folding in on itself, for it attaches to no meaning. And in the scrabble and confusion of this chaotic nonsense, you constantly grab onto the most extreme examples of what you deny.

    Instead, of some basic moral framework, you end up making bizarre and fanatical moralistic pronouncements. And instead of noticing and appreciating emotion, which is a vernacular of the spiritual language, you end up in hysteria.

    You are constantly chasing your own tail.

    I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    No, you’re not “pointing” it out. That would involve giving some mechanisms for why it is true. Instead, you work yourself up into an insane hysteria over it and then get outraged when I state the 2 obvious points:

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I’ve said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao.

    I actually said the opposite. I talked about evolution. I don’t know how exactly such evolution will come, but I do know, for the reasons given above, that it will certainly come. Furthermore, I also know that people form countries, not arcane hidden forces, and that therefore the people, collectively in Russia, though not equally, will decide their future.

    Please don’t descend into complete projective outrage where you start talking to your own shadow again. It makes me cringe. Do better and own yourself.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability?

    Total fantasy. The USSR had a bigger population than the US. Now it has one that is considerably less than half and dwindling, while the US continues to grow. There is no comparison. Even if you subscribe to your spiritually-bereft worldview, you have no point to make.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Since you have a broken perspective, you are incapable of seeing why Apartheid was shrugged off and have to rely on conspiracy as an explanation instead.

    Well here’s the truth, and it is as true about you, as most of everyone else: people do not like being so systematically cruel to other people as whites were to blacks under apartheid. It feels awful.

    Now people will accept feeling awful if the alternative is the even worse feeling of their lives being destroyed, their families being killed or similar, but that doesn’t change the fact that being white in apartheid felt oppressive.

    This meant that once it became clear, with the fall of the USSR, that murderous communism would not take over and that there would be a reasonable degree of social peace, it was white South Africans who undid the political system. They themselves yearned to feel joy, kindness and love, specifically their own. Is this really so hard for you to understand? Or are you blind to your own heart?

    Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow

    I understand the self-pitying narrative, and actually I am cool with self-pity, but not if it gets in the way of considered action, and it always gets in the way of considered action when it is used to obscure agency.

    Most people walk around with most of their multitude of perceptions closed. This is because they wrap themselves in fear and panic and ignorance. Beckow is one such individual. He dwells in pathetic resentment.

    Now, underneath it all, he truly is a gold and shiny being, but probably won’t exist as such for many, many lifetimes. And I really can’t be bothered with that.

    So, let me state clearly: Russians, as a collective body of people, face a choice. They can either continue with this mawdlin narrative that just leads to cycle after cycle of the same mistake, or they can grasp their own agency and evolve into something much better. I can’t make them leave Ukraine. I can’t make their future more than an endless loop of misery, but I can point out what is happening, how to avoid it and hope that they collectively do better.

    I wish them all of the courage that they deserve from themselves, which is so much more than enough.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Apartheid?

    The black population exploded. couldn't be managed with so few whites. SA is a shithole these days.

    , @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I don't know why I bothered. Talking to the average woman about politics.. play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
    Everything you write always boils down to the same puerile tautology: 'if all people just loved each other, the world would be alright!'. A nice thought for mothers telling their young children, but unfortunately that doesn't explain anything about how the world works.
    And spare me the psychology thanks, pointing out Russian national interest (i.e. they can't afford to lose a war with their own former province, rather obvious) doesn't equate to E. Europe's self-interest or my own worldview.

    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.
     
    Mony troops fighting in Ukraine are indigenous Russian people in Eastern Ukraine are the those families supposed to stay after the RF army leaves?; I think the indigenous ethnic Russian in eastern Ukrainians would have much to fear if the army of the RF left.

    Regarding the Russian state leadership: are there any examples of a country acting as you think Russia ought to and simply ignoring which alliance its neighbour de facto joins?; I think not. No country in the world ignores what happens immediately outside their borders. Whether Russia's fears are justified or not, the brute fact that they are acting on them is proof the Russian leadership really believe their country will be in danger if they don't act.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I’ve said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.
     
    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss. We cannot know at what point what the Russians will think they are going to lose, so it is an invisible line that Ukraine is getting closer to all the time.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Triteleia Laxa

  667. @Sean
    @Yevardian


    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack
     
    Nuclear weapon possession protects against nuclear first use attack. Whether it would protect against conventional war by a another nuclear power or not is uncertain, and neither Nato or the Soviet Union behaved as if they believed it did

    South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    The South Africans were fighting in Rhodesia and in Angola, but key to Apartheid becoming unsustainable was the growth of the black population as a proportion of the total population. The USSR experienced a particularly great increase in the Muslim population, and Russia, thinking it would continue to be respected as a first rate power by the West, became preoccupied with the threat of Islamic Jihadists in former Soviet territories.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival
     
    Security is a zero sum game and the losers bleat, but would they act differently were the shoe on the other foot? Has Russia treated Ukraine in accordance with the Golden Rule?

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Yes they did. Or at least they treated Ukies like the English treated the Scots. See “Scottish Raj”

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wokechoke

    No, their treatment of Ukrainians was somewhere between the way that English treated Scots and the way that English treated the Irish. There were elements of both.

    Also, the Russian states treated tjeie own people rather horribly so Ukrainians getting treated by Moscow similarly to how Russians were treated by Moscow was nothing to be pleased about. Better to get out of the Russian World.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @LondonBob

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Wokechoke

    Has anybody with decent statistics compared Irish famine c 1850 and Ukraine famine c 1930? There is something horrific about people starving to death and the farmland and plants and what not in their neighborhood yielding pretty much like any normal year. That takes systematic organized sadism.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

  668. @sher singh
    @216

    It's ok, I'll make you join the Third World & then morally blackmail you about it||

    https://twitter.com/JDKnox4/status/1455523371827990530?s=20&t=uNd6SpCETVEOjfeQSdLFmQ

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    This is the interesting bit. Yes the US has a big GDP but 45,000,000 blacks and an increasing 60,000,000 Mexicans….what does this GDP count really?

  669. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian

    Many supposed "realists" think that their worldview is clear-sighted, while really they keep one eye closed.

    You seem incapable of noticing the difference between love, kindness and other forms of spiritually exulted feeling, and "morals." Thus, in trying to remove the murky, dishonest bathwater of "right and wrong", you also jettison the baby.

    This means that your perspective is constantly folding in on itself, for it attaches to no meaning. And in the scrabble and confusion of this chaotic nonsense, you constantly grab onto the most extreme examples of what you deny.

    Instead, of some basic moral framework, you end up making bizarre and fanatical moralistic pronouncements. And instead of noticing and appreciating emotion, which is a vernacular of the spiritual language, you end up in hysteria.

    You are constantly chasing your own tail.


    I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    No, you're not "pointing" it out. That would involve giving some mechanisms for why it is true. Instead, you work yourself up into an insane hysteria over it and then get outraged when I state the 2 obvious points:

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I've said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao.
     
    I actually said the opposite. I talked about evolution. I don't know how exactly such evolution will come, but I do know, for the reasons given above, that it will certainly come. Furthermore, I also know that people form countries, not arcane hidden forces, and that therefore the people, collectively in Russia, though not equally, will decide their future.

    Please don't descend into complete projective outrage where you start talking to your own shadow again. It makes me cringe. Do better and own yourself.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability?
     
    Total fantasy. The USSR had a bigger population than the US. Now it has one that is considerably less than half and dwindling, while the US continues to grow. There is no comparison. Even if you subscribe to your spiritually-bereft worldview, you have no point to make.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    Since you have a broken perspective, you are incapable of seeing why Apartheid was shrugged off and have to rely on conspiracy as an explanation instead.

    Well here's the truth, and it is as true about you, as most of everyone else: people do not like being so systematically cruel to other people as whites were to blacks under apartheid. It feels awful.

    Now people will accept feeling awful if the alternative is the even worse feeling of their lives being destroyed, their families being killed or similar, but that doesn't change the fact that being white in apartheid felt oppressive.

    This meant that once it became clear, with the fall of the USSR, that murderous communism would not take over and that there would be a reasonable degree of social peace, it was white South Africans who undid the political system. They themselves yearned to feel joy, kindness and love, specifically their own. Is this really so hard for you to understand? Or are you blind to your own heart?

    Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow
     
    I understand the self-pitying narrative, and actually I am cool with self-pity, but not if it gets in the way of considered action, and it always gets in the way of considered action when it is used to obscure agency.

    Most people walk around with most of their multitude of perceptions closed. This is because they wrap themselves in fear and panic and ignorance. Beckow is one such individual. He dwells in pathetic resentment.

    Now, underneath it all, he truly is a gold and shiny being, but probably won't exist as such for many, many lifetimes. And I really can't be bothered with that.

    So, let me state clearly: Russians, as a collective body of people, face a choice. They can either continue with this mawdlin narrative that just leads to cycle after cycle of the same mistake, or they can grasp their own agency and evolve into something much better. I can't make them leave Ukraine. I can't make their future more than an endless loop of misery, but I can point out what is happening, how to avoid it and hope that they collectively do better.

    I wish them all of the courage that they deserve from themselves, which is so much more than enough.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Sean

    Apartheid?

    The black population exploded. couldn’t be managed with so few whites. SA is a shithole these days.

  670. @Yellowface Anon
    @Philip Owen

    The decision to act militarily is made regardless of the overall economy's readiness for broad sanctions. Look at Shanghai's lockdown. Worse case (and Russia is converging to their level) it'll be North Korea writ large.

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate, whether under communists or democrats. If China made stupid decisions their wish would be realized. And the Politburo might be blind to this fact.

    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

    Replies: @216, @Coconuts, @Triteleia Laxa

    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate

    95% paranoia. American elites sincerely feel that they are protecting and nurturing the world into something better. They would therefore be delighted if they thought that China would be a reliable partner as this would greatly ease their burden.

    The problem is that the CCP, by its nature, is an institution that obscures its intentions, avoids vigorous and open self-reflection, and promotes a culture of dishonest, thin-skinned jingoism.

    This is why China gets all of the worst allies. The only good one was Russia, but their government has turned out to be run by complete bunglers.

    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese. Chinese people in the US are an unbelievably protected and successful group. The fact that they have higher levels of what might be termed “introversion” than other groups will keep many from being famous and celebrated, but basically they have the best lives in the US. They are least likely to be victims of crime, have very high incomes and great health prospects. In fact, when COVID was spreading out of China, the US elites’ primary concern was any potential reaction against the Chinese and they were encouraging people to patronise Chinese businesses and even hug Chinese people. And now you project your own hatred onto them, why?

    Of course, anyone at all plugged into CCP information streams will miss all of this as it doesn’t accord well with paranoia, and institutions set up like the CCP are basically paranoia as an operating system.

    The good thing about paranoia as an operating system is that it boosts your feelings of pride and makes you look impressive. The bad thing is that it tends to collapse spectacularly and other people distrust you.

    For all of the faults of America, there is a reason why, even against economic interest, basically every country prefers to rely on the US. Those who are open about their vulnerabilities are simply more dependable than those whose primary concern is to hide them.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa

    It doesn't hurt that so many countries in the world are left holding US bonds either. :-)

    , @A123
    @Triteleia Laxa


    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese.
     
    Good Luck.

    I have tried to make this exact point to YF several times. CCP Elites are abusive to both Chinese workers and American workers.

    I wish the Chinese people well, but there is little to be done to help from the outside. The proletariat workers of China need to throw off the yoke of bourgeois Elite CCP rule.

    For American workers to recover, national security sectors (raw materials, pharmaceuticals, electronics, etc) must decouple from the CCP Elites and return to America. This is a gradual process as long lead time physical builds are required. For inexplicable reasons, YF keeps pushing extremely low probability 'sudden decoupling' scenarios that no one on any side supports.

    To be clear, I am not stating that CCP Elites are responsible for everything undermining American citizens. There are other forces at work. MAGA Reindustrialization requires development of native talent. America citizens have been pushed out of STEM by H1B low wages. Ending H1B/OPT and reforming education institutions are needed to provision American citizen workers to fill the returning jobs.

    PEACE 😇
  671. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yellowface Anon


    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate
     
    95% paranoia. American elites sincerely feel that they are protecting and nurturing the world into something better. They would therefore be delighted if they thought that China would be a reliable partner as this would greatly ease their burden.

    The problem is that the CCP, by its nature, is an institution that obscures its intentions, avoids vigorous and open self-reflection, and promotes a culture of dishonest, thin-skinned jingoism.

    This is why China gets all of the worst allies. The only good one was Russia, but their government has turned out to be run by complete bunglers.

    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese. Chinese people in the US are an unbelievably protected and successful group. The fact that they have higher levels of what might be termed "introversion" than other groups will keep many from being famous and celebrated, but basically they have the best lives in the US. They are least likely to be victims of crime, have very high incomes and great health prospects. In fact, when COVID was spreading out of China, the US elites' primary concern was any potential reaction against the Chinese and they were encouraging people to patronise Chinese businesses and even hug Chinese people. And now you project your own hatred onto them, why?

    Of course, anyone at all plugged into CCP information streams will miss all of this as it doesn't accord well with paranoia, and institutions set up like the CCP are basically paranoia as an operating system.

    The good thing about paranoia as an operating system is that it boosts your feelings of pride and makes you look impressive. The bad thing is that it tends to collapse spectacularly and other people distrust you.

    For all of the faults of America, there is a reason why, even against economic interest, basically every country prefers to rely on the US. Those who are open about their vulnerabilities are simply more dependable than those whose primary concern is to hide them.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123

    It doesn’t hurt that so many countries in the world are left holding US bonds either. 🙂

  672. AP says:
    @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Yes they did. Or at least they treated Ukies like the English treated the Scots. See "Scottish Raj"

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    No, their treatment of Ukrainians was somewhere between the way that English treated Scots and the way that English treated the Irish. There were elements of both.

    Also, the Russian states treated tjeie own people rather horribly so Ukrainians getting treated by Moscow similarly to how Russians were treated by Moscow was nothing to be pleased about. Better to get out of the Russian World.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @AP

    The Scots were given command positions in the civil and military command as well as banking. Hong Kong is a Scotsman’s brainchild. Dr Jardine (opium smuggler). Several PMs with Scottish ancestry and names. General Douglas Haig of the Whisky distillers family, commanded the British Army in ww1. Several royal governors of the American colonies were Scots, and formerly Jacobites at that.

    The Catholic Irish have a schizoid role in the Empire though.

    Very often administrators, Police and NCOs in India, Australia and Canada. Several figures got filthy rich. They tend to pretend they were not the shocktroops and bully boys in Africa and Asia but the historians know better.

    Perhaps the Russians ought to dump the Poseidon or Satan off the coast of Galway after all.


    Jardine reminds me of Ukie-Jew Leonid Minin of Odessa. Zelenskyy is apt too, profiting handsomely from the current version of the Opium War.

    , @LondonBob
    @AP

    Getting your history from Braveheart isn't the wisest thing to do.

    Replies: @AP

  673. @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Yes they did. Or at least they treated Ukies like the English treated the Scots. See "Scottish Raj"

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Has anybody with decent statistics compared Irish famine c 1850 and Ukraine famine c 1930? There is something horrific about people starving to death and the farmland and plants and what not in their neighborhood yielding pretty much like any normal year. That takes systematic organized sadism.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Apparently wheat farmers were exporting grain the whole time. The Potato eating subsistence farmers were cut loose. Seen as an opportunity to get cheap labor in Manchester, New York, Australia, London and Canada. Rampant Capitalism.

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Every European country starved, especially the Low Countries, Germany, Poland and the Russian Empire. This is one of the causes of the Revolutions of 1848. Granted, these countries never had it as bad as the Irish and they could demographically recover up to WWI.

  674. A123 says: • Website
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yellowface Anon


    Many in the US would wish China to return to African-level poverty out of an almost cultural and ethnic hate
     
    95% paranoia. American elites sincerely feel that they are protecting and nurturing the world into something better. They would therefore be delighted if they thought that China would be a reliable partner as this would greatly ease their burden.

    The problem is that the CCP, by its nature, is an institution that obscures its intentions, avoids vigorous and open self-reflection, and promotes a culture of dishonest, thin-skinned jingoism.

    This is why China gets all of the worst allies. The only good one was Russia, but their government has turned out to be run by complete bunglers.

    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese. Chinese people in the US are an unbelievably protected and successful group. The fact that they have higher levels of what might be termed "introversion" than other groups will keep many from being famous and celebrated, but basically they have the best lives in the US. They are least likely to be victims of crime, have very high incomes and great health prospects. In fact, when COVID was spreading out of China, the US elites' primary concern was any potential reaction against the Chinese and they were encouraging people to patronise Chinese businesses and even hug Chinese people. And now you project your own hatred onto them, why?

    Of course, anyone at all plugged into CCP information streams will miss all of this as it doesn't accord well with paranoia, and institutions set up like the CCP are basically paranoia as an operating system.

    The good thing about paranoia as an operating system is that it boosts your feelings of pride and makes you look impressive. The bad thing is that it tends to collapse spectacularly and other people distrust you.

    For all of the faults of America, there is a reason why, even against economic interest, basically every country prefers to rely on the US. Those who are open about their vulnerabilities are simply more dependable than those whose primary concern is to hide them.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @A123

    No one wants to work with an institution like the CCP, if they can find any alternative at all.

    There is no hatred of the Chinese.

    Good Luck.

    I have tried to make this exact point to YF several times. CCP Elites are abusive to both Chinese workers and American workers.

    I wish the Chinese people well, but there is little to be done to help from the outside. The proletariat workers of China need to throw off the yoke of bourgeois Elite CCP rule.

    For American workers to recover, national security sectors (raw materials, pharmaceuticals, electronics, etc) must decouple from the CCP Elites and return to America. This is a gradual process as long lead time physical builds are required. For inexplicable reasons, YF keeps pushing extremely low probability ‘sudden decoupling’ scenarios that no one on any side supports.

    To be clear, I am not stating that CCP Elites are responsible for everything undermining American citizens. There are other forces at work. MAGA Reindustrialization requires development of native talent. America citizens have been pushed out of STEM by H1B low wages. Ending H1B/OPT and reforming education institutions are needed to provision American citizen workers to fill the returning jobs.

    PEACE 😇

  675. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian

    Many supposed "realists" think that their worldview is clear-sighted, while really they keep one eye closed.

    You seem incapable of noticing the difference between love, kindness and other forms of spiritually exulted feeling, and "morals." Thus, in trying to remove the murky, dishonest bathwater of "right and wrong", you also jettison the baby.

    This means that your perspective is constantly folding in on itself, for it attaches to no meaning. And in the scrabble and confusion of this chaotic nonsense, you constantly grab onto the most extreme examples of what you deny.

    Instead, of some basic moral framework, you end up making bizarre and fanatical moralistic pronouncements. And instead of noticing and appreciating emotion, which is a vernacular of the spiritual language, you end up in hysteria.

    You are constantly chasing your own tail.


    I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    No, you're not "pointing" it out. That would involve giving some mechanisms for why it is true. Instead, you work yourself up into an insane hysteria over it and then get outraged when I state the 2 obvious points:

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I've said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao.
     
    I actually said the opposite. I talked about evolution. I don't know how exactly such evolution will come, but I do know, for the reasons given above, that it will certainly come. Furthermore, I also know that people form countries, not arcane hidden forces, and that therefore the people, collectively in Russia, though not equally, will decide their future.

    Please don't descend into complete projective outrage where you start talking to your own shadow again. It makes me cringe. Do better and own yourself.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability?
     
    Total fantasy. The USSR had a bigger population than the US. Now it has one that is considerably less than half and dwindling, while the US continues to grow. There is no comparison. Even if you subscribe to your spiritually-bereft worldview, you have no point to make.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    Since you have a broken perspective, you are incapable of seeing why Apartheid was shrugged off and have to rely on conspiracy as an explanation instead.

    Well here's the truth, and it is as true about you, as most of everyone else: people do not like being so systematically cruel to other people as whites were to blacks under apartheid. It feels awful.

    Now people will accept feeling awful if the alternative is the even worse feeling of their lives being destroyed, their families being killed or similar, but that doesn't change the fact that being white in apartheid felt oppressive.

    This meant that once it became clear, with the fall of the USSR, that murderous communism would not take over and that there would be a reasonable degree of social peace, it was white South Africans who undid the political system. They themselves yearned to feel joy, kindness and love, specifically their own. Is this really so hard for you to understand? Or are you blind to your own heart?

    Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow
     
    I understand the self-pitying narrative, and actually I am cool with self-pity, but not if it gets in the way of considered action, and it always gets in the way of considered action when it is used to obscure agency.

    Most people walk around with most of their multitude of perceptions closed. This is because they wrap themselves in fear and panic and ignorance. Beckow is one such individual. He dwells in pathetic resentment.

    Now, underneath it all, he truly is a gold and shiny being, but probably won't exist as such for many, many lifetimes. And I really can't be bothered with that.

    So, let me state clearly: Russians, as a collective body of people, face a choice. They can either continue with this mawdlin narrative that just leads to cycle after cycle of the same mistake, or they can grasp their own agency and evolve into something much better. I can't make them leave Ukraine. I can't make their future more than an endless loop of misery, but I can point out what is happening, how to avoid it and hope that they collectively do better.

    I wish them all of the courage that they deserve from themselves, which is so much more than enough.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Sean

    I don’t know why I bothered. Talking to the average woman about politics.. play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
    Everything you write always boils down to the same puerile tautology: ‘if all people just loved each other, the world would be alright!’. A nice thought for mothers telling their young children, but unfortunately that doesn’t explain anything about how the world works.
    And spare me the psychology thanks, pointing out Russian national interest (i.e. they can’t afford to lose a war with their own former province, rather obvious) doesn’t equate to E. Europe’s self-interest or my own worldview.

  676. @Yellowface Anon
    @LatW


    Agree.
     
    I'm trying to contrast what Western Europe and much of North America would look like in 2030 , a place where:

    - Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available
    - Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void
    - Intensification of wokeness with more "diverse" populations on Western soil
    - Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    These can be good or bad developments based on your ideology and those dissenting will exit to a place that more resembles the 00s or even the 80s, in this case a Russia that's stuck in technological and economic stasis due to sanctions. If Russian Nationalist ideology is stronger there could even be some form of RETVRN initially as a coping mechanism of a failing economy and ultimate realizing the archeofuturist vision of embracing a more primitive lifestyle for the masses. So basically Iran on steroids.


    the benefits of economic isolation
     
    See the "technological and economic stasis" point above.

    Replies: @LatW, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Transhuman biological and eletronic augmentation will be increasingly available

    Smart phones in current form may be 99% of all that humans are ever going to make use of:

    1. although many of us are seamlessly attached to phones many don’t care about them at all;
    2. a large fraction of the plausible science fiction is pretty meh about biological and electronic augmentation. In Permutation City they take away the AI’s suicide capability because any one with a viable option to do so pulls the plug on themself instantly.

    When I was eight years old I wanted to be like Superman. But if you think about it for five seconds you realize that if Superman ever put some effort into banging Lois Lane she would break into pieces instantly and nobody with an adult brain would ever want to be Superman.

    Automation will drive out even middle-end work and UBI will fill up the void

    Nobody wants to be on welfare or whatever you want to call it; people and the market are more innovative than Bill Gates’ stupid futurism committee.

    Intensification of wokeness with more “diverse” populations on Western soil

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    Increasingly caste-based society rooted in real and imaginary social divisions

    Social status hierarchy is a constant from time zero to now so the increasingly here is arbitrary and subjective.

    There isn’t any crypto currency on your list.

    Even bigger huger gap: chaos magic. Things are maybe going to get so weird our grandparents won’t even recognize it as earth and humans.

    No space travel? That’s right. The only people going to space are going to be a puny fraction of the armed forces occupying the highest battleground.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
  677. @A123
    @German_reader

    Projection (from 1983) on how a NATO Russia nuclear war would play out.

    PEACE 😇

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOHEU7Ykyg

    Replies: @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    A NATO / Russian war is playing out right now. No projection required.

  678. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Wokechoke

    Has anybody with decent statistics compared Irish famine c 1850 and Ukraine famine c 1930? There is something horrific about people starving to death and the farmland and plants and what not in their neighborhood yielding pretty much like any normal year. That takes systematic organized sadism.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

    Apparently wheat farmers were exporting grain the whole time. The Potato eating subsistence farmers were cut loose. Seen as an opportunity to get cheap labor in Manchester, New York, Australia, London and Canada. Rampant Capitalism.

  679. @AP
    @Wokechoke

    No, their treatment of Ukrainians was somewhere between the way that English treated Scots and the way that English treated the Irish. There were elements of both.

    Also, the Russian states treated tjeie own people rather horribly so Ukrainians getting treated by Moscow similarly to how Russians were treated by Moscow was nothing to be pleased about. Better to get out of the Russian World.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @LondonBob

    The Scots were given command positions in the civil and military command as well as banking. Hong Kong is a Scotsman’s brainchild. Dr Jardine (opium smuggler). Several PMs with Scottish ancestry and names. General Douglas Haig of the Whisky distillers family, commanded the British Army in ww1. Several royal governors of the American colonies were Scots, and formerly Jacobites at that.

    The Catholic Irish have a schizoid role in the Empire though.

    Very often administrators, Police and NCOs in India, Australia and Canada. Several figures got filthy rich. They tend to pretend they were not the shocktroops and bully boys in Africa and Asia but the historians know better.

    Perhaps the Russians ought to dump the Poseidon or Satan off the coast of Galway after all.

    Jardine reminds me of Ukie-Jew Leonid Minin of Odessa. Zelenskyy is apt too, profiting handsomely from the current version of the Opium War.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  680. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You're misinterpeting my words. I'm not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You're the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I'm simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how 'unpopular' he is and 'give up', imao. There is and has never been such thing as 'people power', populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that's already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters 'disappeared' in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn't be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe's golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former 'dissidents' like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it's hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn't go so far to say 'to understand all, is to forgive all', but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol 'taking over EU from within', you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren't you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America's invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don't you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can't either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that's in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can't expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I'd closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to 'rebuild' the country in the event it manages to hold most of it's territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa's old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa, @A123, @Beckow

    There is and has never been such thing as ‘people power’, populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that’s already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters ‘disappeared’ in the aftermath.

    I mostly concur.

    The U.S. Revolution was led by the immensely wealthy George Washington. He succeeded in gaining the backing of the French government, who wished to undermine Britain. The U.S. succeeded as the new rulers were much better than the old.

    Terminology becomes a bit muddy in this area. I would argue that the U.S. Revolution was Populist as it was “For the People”, even though George Washington was not one of them. However, it was not “People Power” as defined in Communist/Socialist dogma.

    Communist/Socialist “People Power” does exist, and such revolutions do occasionally lead to a change in government. This is usually a complete disaster, as new leadership has no competency in national scale administration. The more or less complete collapse of Zimbabwe illustrates the consequences of a Communist/Socialist “People Power” revolution.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @A123

    A shout out for Benedict Arnold.

    Immensely wealthy Connecticut trader and smuggler in Atlantic and Gulf, dad was a bankrupt so the Arnold’s were not quite the thing in Connecticut society. Hates the aristocracy in New England who shit on him socially.

    Turns general: captures British cannon at Ticonderoga, takes the war to Quebec City, wins the battles in Lake Champlain, wins Saratoga (gets injured). This battlefield win brings France into the war.

    Dismayed at the lack of meritocratic advancement in the Army and the nepotism of his rivals for promotion and election. Washington’s protege though so he is given commands that he’d otherwise be excluded from. Betrays the defence plans of WestPoint to John Andre.

    Ends his days trading on the Atlantic and retires to London.

  681. @A123
    @Yevardian


    There is and has never been such thing as ‘people power’, populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that’s already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters ‘disappeared’ in the aftermath.
     
    I mostly concur.

    The U.S. Revolution was led by the immensely wealthy George Washington. He succeeded in gaining the backing of the French government, who wished to undermine Britain. The U.S. succeeded as the new rulers were much better than the old.

    Terminology becomes a bit muddy in this area. I would argue that the U.S. Revolution was Populist as it was "For the People", even though George Washington was not one of them. However, it was not "People Power" as defined in Communist/Socialist dogma.

    Communist/Socialist "People Power" does exist, and such revolutions do occasionally lead to a change in government. This is usually a complete disaster, as new leadership has no competency in national scale administration. The more or less complete collapse of Zimbabwe illustrates the consequences of a Communist/Socialist "People Power" revolution.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    A shout out for Benedict Arnold.

    Immensely wealthy Connecticut trader and smuggler in Atlantic and Gulf, dad was a bankrupt so the Arnold’s were not quite the thing in Connecticut society. Hates the aristocracy in New England who shit on him socially.

    Turns general: captures British cannon at Ticonderoga, takes the war to Quebec City, wins the battles in Lake Champlain, wins Saratoga (gets injured). This battlefield win brings France into the war.

    Dismayed at the lack of meritocratic advancement in the Army and the nepotism of his rivals for promotion and election. Washington’s protege though so he is given commands that he’d otherwise be excluded from. Betrays the defence plans of WestPoint to John Andre.

    Ends his days trading on the Atlantic and retires to London.

  682. @Ron Unz
    https://twitter.com/WamsuttaLives/status/1521208282312060929

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @nickels, @Mr. Hack, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    Hey Ron,

    When it comes to pop stars taking sides in the Russian/Ukraine war, I think that even you’d agree that it’s hard to top Pink Floyd. This is the first new song that they’ve put out in 8 years, a remake of a very patriotic Ukrainian song:

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mr. Hack

    Rick Beato reports the last living rock star is Dave Grohl and over 50 years old. Rock and Roll is over with. Into the Dewey Decimal System +.1 next to big band music and the charleston.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5zw04WxCc

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  683. Sean says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Yevardian

    Many supposed "realists" think that their worldview is clear-sighted, while really they keep one eye closed.

    You seem incapable of noticing the difference between love, kindness and other forms of spiritually exulted feeling, and "morals." Thus, in trying to remove the murky, dishonest bathwater of "right and wrong", you also jettison the baby.

    This means that your perspective is constantly folding in on itself, for it attaches to no meaning. And in the scrabble and confusion of this chaotic nonsense, you constantly grab onto the most extreme examples of what you deny.

    Instead, of some basic moral framework, you end up making bizarre and fanatical moralistic pronouncements. And instead of noticing and appreciating emotion, which is a vernacular of the spiritual language, you end up in hysteria.

    You are constantly chasing your own tail.


    I’m simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    No, you're not "pointing" it out. That would involve giving some mechanisms for why it is true. Instead, you work yourself up into an insane hysteria over it and then get outraged when I state the 2 obvious points:

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I've said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how ‘unpopular’ he is and ‘give up’, imao.
     
    I actually said the opposite. I talked about evolution. I don't know how exactly such evolution will come, but I do know, for the reasons given above, that it will certainly come. Furthermore, I also know that people form countries, not arcane hidden forces, and that therefore the people, collectively in Russia, though not equally, will decide their future.

    Please don't descend into complete projective outrage where you start talking to your own shadow again. It makes me cringe. Do better and own yourself.

    Don’t you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability?
     
    Total fantasy. The USSR had a bigger population than the US. Now it has one that is considerably less than half and dwindling, while the US continues to grow. There is no comparison. Even if you subscribe to your spiritually-bereft worldview, you have no point to make.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa’s old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.
     
    Since you have a broken perspective, you are incapable of seeing why Apartheid was shrugged off and have to rely on conspiracy as an explanation instead.

    Well here's the truth, and it is as true about you, as most of everyone else: people do not like being so systematically cruel to other people as whites were to blacks under apartheid. It feels awful.

    Now people will accept feeling awful if the alternative is the even worse feeling of their lives being destroyed, their families being killed or similar, but that doesn't change the fact that being white in apartheid felt oppressive.

    This meant that once it became clear, with the fall of the USSR, that murderous communism would not take over and that there would be a reasonable degree of social peace, it was white South Africans who undid the political system. They themselves yearned to feel joy, kindness and love, specifically their own. Is this really so hard for you to understand? Or are you blind to your own heart?

    Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe’s golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow
     
    I understand the self-pitying narrative, and actually I am cool with self-pity, but not if it gets in the way of considered action, and it always gets in the way of considered action when it is used to obscure agency.

    Most people walk around with most of their multitude of perceptions closed. This is because they wrap themselves in fear and panic and ignorance. Beckow is one such individual. He dwells in pathetic resentment.

    Now, underneath it all, he truly is a gold and shiny being, but probably won't exist as such for many, many lifetimes. And I really can't be bothered with that.

    So, let me state clearly: Russians, as a collective body of people, face a choice. They can either continue with this mawdlin narrative that just leads to cycle after cycle of the same mistake, or they can grasp their own agency and evolve into something much better. I can't make them leave Ukraine. I can't make their future more than an endless loop of misery, but I can point out what is happening, how to avoid it and hope that they collectively do better.

    I wish them all of the courage that they deserve from themselves, which is so much more than enough.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yevardian, @Sean

    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.

    Mony troops fighting in Ukraine are indigenous Russian people in Eastern Ukraine are the those families supposed to stay after the RF army leaves?; I think the indigenous ethnic Russian in eastern Ukrainians would have much to fear if the army of the RF left.

    Regarding the Russian state leadership: are there any examples of a country acting as you think Russia ought to and simply ignoring which alliance its neighbour de facto joins?; I think not. No country in the world ignores what happens immediately outside their borders. Whether Russia’s fears are justified or not, the brute fact that they are acting on them is proof the Russian leadership really believe their country will be in danger if they don’t act.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I’ve said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.

    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss. We cannot know at what point what the Russians will think they are going to lose, so it is an invisible line that Ukraine is getting closer to all the time.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Sean


    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss.
     
    Unfortunately, you may be right about the risk of some sort of dramatic escalation. I've done my morning roundup of Telegram and Twitter channels and I see Colonelcassad admitting that the Ukrainians are making serious progress north of Kharkiv while Strelkov has gone into full defeatist mode.

    At some point the Russians may feel the need to escalate because with their current strategy they haven't been able to break through anywhere for many weeks and risk a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ukraine+NATO.
    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Sorry, I don't buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war's supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those "superficial changes" will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia's atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries "ignoring" other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not "ignoring" and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine's behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let's all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can't be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Sean, @PhysicistDave, @awry

  684. @Mr. Hack
    @Ron Unz

    Hey Ron,

    When it comes to pop stars taking sides in the Russian/Ukraine war, I think that even you'd agree that it's hard to top Pink Floyd. This is the first new song that they've put out in 8 years, a remake of a very patriotic Ukrainian song:

    https://youtu.be/saEpkcVi1d4

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Rick Beato reports the last living rock star is Dave Grohl and over 50 years old. Rock and Roll is over with. Into the Dewey Decimal System +.1 next to big band music and the charleston.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Rock and roll is an ever evolving music form, but yes I'd have to agree with you that it's an artform looking to reinvent itself at this current stage of its development. For a great review of this artform with a special emphasis on the seminal year of 1968 in its history, you need not go any further (thank you Ron Unz) than to look here, within this website: https://www.unz.com/jfreud/elvis-comeback-special-and-the-rolling-stones-rock-and-roll-circus-in-the-crazy-year-of-1968/


    When the very institution of authority releases the furies upon the hapless populace whom it is supposed to serve and protect, what are the people to do? What historical juncture are we at?
     
    The influence of old rock and rollers is still quite high IMHO. Baby boomers are still mostly running this world and grew up influenced by the lyrics and rhythms of this music. The influence of this music is still profound to this day...Even Putler is said to listen to and likes Deep Purple and Led Zeppelin. :-)
  685. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mr. Hack

    Rick Beato reports the last living rock star is Dave Grohl and over 50 years old. Rock and Roll is over with. Into the Dewey Decimal System +.1 next to big band music and the charleston.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5zw04WxCc

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Rock and roll is an ever evolving music form, but yes I’d have to agree with you that it’s an artform looking to reinvent itself at this current stage of its development. For a great review of this artform with a special emphasis on the seminal year of 1968 in its history, you need not go any further (thank you Ron Unz) than to look here, within this website: https://www.unz.com/jfreud/elvis-comeback-special-and-the-rolling-stones-rock-and-roll-circus-in-the-crazy-year-of-1968/

    When the very institution of authority releases the furies upon the hapless populace whom it is supposed to serve and protect, what are the people to do? What historical juncture are we at?

    The influence of old rock and rollers is still quite high IMHO. Baby boomers are still mostly running this world and grew up influenced by the lyrics and rhythms of this music. The influence of this music is still profound to this day…Even Putler is said to listen to and likes Deep Purple and Led Zeppelin. 🙂

  686. Putin took the L.

    Sad, because the beef was pretty funny.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Don't know if there is anyway to quantify the rumors that Hitler was gay across a chronological timeline, but it would be interesting to see, whether they have fallen or risen, with the political rise of gays.
    ______
    For all the money that has been spent on RT, you would think that they would have kicked a little to provide better audio equipment to independent, pro-Russian internet commentators.

  687. @LatW
    @songbird


    I don’t know whether it is specifically an American phenomenon (I think not), but it seems to me like The Witcher video games created a buzz around Slavic myths.
     
    Maybe, and the interest may not be that far spread, it's purely anecdotal on my side (encountering Westerners who shouldn't know about certain titles, for instance, but they do). It could be that they might be watching something on their YouTube feed and it brings them to similar but more rare titles.


    I don’t think Poles could have created a movie or a novel that influenced the West
     
    Don't know vis a vis the West, but the Polish novel and movie Quo Vadis is quite popular in Eastern Europe. The movie was a bit scary to watch and not too relaxing (meaning it had painful, realistic scenes, with European film one has to be engaged fully, it's not just senseless entertainment).

    Yes, The Witcher struck me as surprisingly woke, but it might be that they're catering to a younger audience.

    Whereas, I thought she was a very attractive girl before that, the new look was not at all flattering.
     
    Yea, I've seen some people that I previously liked do that and it's just not a flattering look at all. But they've tried to incorporate this more "tribal" look in these viking / ancient NW Euro movies. Unfortunately, it makes pagans look Wiccan (which they weren't). This tribalization is meant to make the characters more "primitive" and thus more exotic maybe? Otherwise, I don't really mind it that much, it's interesting and entertaining, although they slightly overdid it in the Vikings, they could've just done the fade hairstyle with longer hair on top (that's archeologically quite accurate apparently). But most fans really seem to like these newly discovered hairstyles.

    But I sympathize with your distaste for onscreen violence. It is very easy to go the route of gore, just for the shock value, and ignore the story. My favorite part of battles in movies, is just watching the men march onto the scene, at the beginning.
     
    Yes, absolutely, that's one of my favorite parts, too. And collective chants, all that.

    No, I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming. Rollo's jump with an axe is superb. It's entertaining (even funny). It's just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild. Well, that was the point it seems.

    For example, Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games where he was made to appear like an evil young white guy ("the blonde beast" or something). Maybe I'm seeing too much in it...

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational. But then that would be kind of boring, so they try to make it more captivating by turning them into real beasts. No, I don't mind, lol.

    Btw, there is a stunning redhead in the later series, Princess Aslaug. Maybe not so much the type that you may like, she doesn't look like an etherial fairy, she's more of a statuesque, regal type. The actress is of British descent from Australia (with a Scottish last name, Sutherland).

    Replies: @songbird

    And collective chants, all that.

    Wish I knew the clan battlecry of my patrilineal line. There’s something awesome about battlefield traditions, but I don’t think that it survives.

    [MORE]

    In reference to your distaste for the bloody fighters, the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today (somewhat ironically by Protestants). Its origin is disputed. Some say the Normans invented it. Others that the O’Neills took it from an ancient ancestor, who, during a hard-fought battle grabbed the standard of his enemy with his bloody hand, leaving the mark of his blood upon it.

    I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming.

    For me, it starts to devolve, when the two sides get closer. I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass. Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I’ve never seen that. I think pitched battles were all day affairs, from dawn to dusk, with a lot of people fleeing.

    Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games

    The Hunger Games? I think I saw one of them, but don’t really remember it.

    It’s just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild.

    The berserker is a popular trope, I think.

    And I think it is true to a certain extent. Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush, and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery.

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational.

    Some say that we weren’t always that way.

    BTW, I wouldn’t blame you for being a bit paranoid about it. Pretty easy to perceive some level of animus out of Hollywood. (And which I think is real) Though, I think the lack of Euro cultural production is mostly related to something that Hanania would probably say. I.e., it has something to do with civil rights laws, and the political and legal environment. I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @songbird


    the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today
     
    It's very bright red, it looks good with pristine white.



    There's a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too. It is maroon with a white stripe in the middle, and, according to legend, a wounded chieftain was laid on a white sheet, the white stripe in the middle is where his spine was, that remained white.

    I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass
     
    I agree, I've pondered this a lot, too. These current depictions are pure entertainment, kind of like sports. Not sure it could've been sustained in real life at such intensity for a long time (even longer than a half hour). They definitely just walked more, and some must've hidden in the forest.

    One of the realistic scenes I've seen is from a Lithuanian movie about Northern Crusades (called Herkus Mantas, about the Old Prussian Uprising in 1260). If you want to scroll ahead it starts at 32:45, the Old Prussian hero asks his wife to bring him the helmet (husband is pagan, wife is Christian), and a few scenes later you can see the Teutonic Knights ride out of their castle, it's an amazing scene, I love how the horses are clad in white, and how their mantels are flowing as they ride, with the stone castle walls in the background, and the bell ringing solemnly.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyAomvfRwH0&t=2544s

    Natangai are a Western Baltic tribe. The Knights get defeated and run back into the castle. I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately. It's just way more realistic than anything that happens in all these modern series.

    Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I’ve never seen that.
     
    The way it's set up in this movie, you can see that they lived next to each other, each in their own castle, and occasionally skirmished.

    Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush
     
    Which one? From the 1920s or later?


    and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery
     
    Wow. Yea, no, I totally believe that (the IRA history is wild). I wonder if when they fought in the early Middle Ages, if they felt the warmth of their opponents' blood on their skin.

    Some say that we weren’t always that way.
     
    :D

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers. Most of their "battles" were actually short raids (with the exception of bigger ones, such as the Battle of York, which was also shown in the Vikings series). Some Norwegians were banished from their societies for murder, so they were forced to seek out other living spaces further West.

    I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.
     
    Imagine is there was a European History month? And, similar as LGBTQ Friendship days, there were Euro Friendship days? :)

    Replies: @songbird

  688. @Thulean Friend
    Putin took the L.

    https://i.imgur.com/vQLsGPR.png



    Sad, because the beef was pretty funny.

    Replies: @songbird

    Don’t know if there is anyway to quantify the rumors that Hitler was gay across a chronological timeline, but it would be interesting to see, whether they have fallen or risen, with the political rise of gays.
    ______
    For all the money that has been spent on RT, you would think that they would have kicked a little to provide better audio equipment to independent, pro-Russian internet commentators.

  689. Mikel says:
    @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.
     
    Mony troops fighting in Ukraine are indigenous Russian people in Eastern Ukraine are the those families supposed to stay after the RF army leaves?; I think the indigenous ethnic Russian in eastern Ukrainians would have much to fear if the army of the RF left.

    Regarding the Russian state leadership: are there any examples of a country acting as you think Russia ought to and simply ignoring which alliance its neighbour de facto joins?; I think not. No country in the world ignores what happens immediately outside their borders. Whether Russia's fears are justified or not, the brute fact that they are acting on them is proof the Russian leadership really believe their country will be in danger if they don't act.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I’ve said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.
     
    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss. We cannot know at what point what the Russians will think they are going to lose, so it is an invisible line that Ukraine is getting closer to all the time.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Triteleia Laxa

    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss.

    Unfortunately, you may be right about the risk of some sort of dramatic escalation. I’ve done my morning roundup of Telegram and Twitter channels and I see Colonelcassad admitting that the Ukrainians are making serious progress north of Kharkiv while Strelkov has gone into full defeatist mode.

    At some point the Russians may feel the need to escalate because with their current strategy they haven’t been able to break through anywhere for many weeks and risk a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ukraine+NATO.

  690. @Mikel
    I don't know if what the woman in the second video says is true: that they were prevented from leaving the Azovstal factory by the Ukrainians and used as human shields:

    https://southfront.org/testimonies-of-survivors-from-catacombs-of-azovstal-in-mariupol/

    What I do know is that the BBC got the video of that interview but removed for their viewers all the parts where she speaks unfavorably of the Ukrainians:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61294744

    In other words, the MSM is lying to us. This is by no means an isolated incident. But why? I'd really like to understand it. Is the Ukrainian/Western cause so weak that it wouldn't be able to stand on its merits without lies and censorship? Is it not possible to editorially support Ukraine while being more objective and admitting that the Ukrainians can also occasionally do immoral things? Don't they understand that a lot of people have access to other sources of information and they are giving unnecessary ammunition to the Russians?

    This is following the same script as the Donbass war but it's bigger this time. Obviously, that the MSM lies and obfuscates on multiple issues is nothing new, that's to a great extent why Trump won. But in previous wars there wasn't this unanimous level of equivocation. We actually learned about American war crimes from some of these same MSM outlets and anti-interventionist voices were not suppressed then like now. I am in principle opposed to all conspiracy theories but I also have the feeling that understanding why it is so important for the powers that be to portray this war as a struggle between absolute villains versus immaculate heroes would lead to a better understanding of the world we live in.

    Replies: @S, @Barbarossa

    Hi Mikel,
    I haven’t had much time for commenting the last few days but here is the latest update on the dowsing test. I’ll email him back today.
    I would say that the ideal site would be a large empty field with something like a single buried straight utility line of known location in it. I would even be happy to do multiples of such a test to rule out dumb luck on the first. They would probably have to be wiling to trust the survey location since utilities are going to look dimly on people digging up their stuff. They generally have pretty good surveys though since they will mark everything out if one is doing excavation.

    So, not much hard progress. Just more groundwork.

    [MORE]

    Sean,

    I’ve been thinking about claim since you last emailed me and I think we have a problem.

    I realize your claim is not finding things under cardboard boxes and it is not up to me to ask you to modify your claim.

    If you can find buried utility lines (which, by the way, is not hardly an unusual claim) that can be very helpful. But for \$250K we would definitely need proof that what you say is there is really there, i.e., meaning digging it up. And I can’t really see any of us digging up part of Los Angeles, but nobody would be willing to trust any utility company maps.

    Likewise, if we were to bury a target object ourselves, we would know where it is, but I’m not sure how we would camouflage where we did that.

    That is why we have always tested this claim using surrogate targets and concealment.

    However, we remain quite interested in giving you the opportunity to demonstrate your ability in pursuit of the \$250K Challenge. Can you suggest any other way we can make this work? The two criteria that must be met: 1) The circumstances are such that you can be successful and 2) We can be sure that you actually found what you say you found and there was no other way, including luck, that you could have found it.

    John K

    CFIIG

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa

    If time is not of the essence, the testing firm could obtain information on sites currently being built and document where lines are being installed.

    Does rain have any impact? Damp soil has a higher density (kg/m³) than dry soil.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Mikel
    @Barbarossa

    It sounds like they are trying to find some reasonable common ground, which is interesting information for me.

    Perhaps one way to avoid signs of having altered the soil at a specific location would be to dig multiple trenches and bury a pipe with water in just one of them before covering them back. But I don't know if all that disturbance would interfere with your abilities. Maybe you could do a field test yourself to try this out.

  691. @songbird
    @S

    I'm probably a Celtic partisan, but I've always liked red hair. One reason is that it stays true, while blond hair will often darken significantly in adulthood.

    Another reason is that it promotes pale skin. I have nothing against tannables in principal, but it is genetic similarity theory or something. I can't deny that I find pale skin more attractive, and might be wired to do so, based on my ancestors coming from a cloudy, Northern place.

    There was some line in a book I read once, that I can only roughly paraphrase: not every girl with red hair is pretty, but when one is, she is often preternaturally so.
    ____________
    As far as dogs go, I feel like they have served us well, over the course of our relationship. Especially Euros, who I think have a special relationship with them. I feel like they have been true friends, unlike various groups who have cynically sought to extract resources out of us, whatever the cost.

    Some of their abilities, like scenting or herding, verge on the magic. But, at the same time, it is easy to see ways they could be improved.

    One could try to give them longer-lasting teeth, kidneys, and joints. Bloat-resistant bellies. Natural resistance against tick-born diseases. Could make their livers more functional, so certain foods are no longer toxic to them.

    Some of them have broken appetite genes, which make them overeat, these could be fixed. Some dogs are really intelligent and can remember the names of over 1000 objects, we could breed them to increase the intelligence of dogs. Any dog that needs extensive training would be more useful if it were smarter and longer-lived.

    I'd much rather put money into dogs than these various other groups that demand tribute.

    Replies: @S, @Barbarossa

    As someone who has had a bit of limited exposure to the dog world I can tell you that not only have we ceased to improve dogs by breeding but that we have actively broken them by breeding. The AKC breed standards have created perverse incentives for conforming dogs to sometimes grotesque features.

    The German Shepherd for example, now generally has terrible hips because of the desirability of a sloped back. The English Bulldog has an incredible number of health complications, including the fact that they cannot give birth naturally. Every Bulldog litter must be delivered by C-section. Rough Coat Collies have become dumber than a box of rocks because of a preference for increasingly narrow heads over their traditional smarts. I could go on and on.

    In every case, a preference for a particular aesthetic breed conformation trumped both health and functionality. Dog breeding is incredible with it’s intense specialization for a variety of functions to serve human needs. Now that these needs are often more superfluous, people screw it up by expecting a breed that has been fine tuned for centuries to guard sheep independently for weeks at a time; fighting off wolves and hunting it’s own food, to become a suburban pet. It leads to a lot of mess.

    • Agree: songbird
  692. Chinese war nerd drills down into the nitty-gritty and offers his perspective.

    Highlights:

    – The Russians are using significant recon UAVs as spotters for their artillery when making advances to clear the Ukrainians out of their defensive positions, with the above being a good example.

    This is proving to be increasingly useful in massively increasing the effectiveness of artillery, but is slow. Again as the above video illustrates from the low return on dumb artillery shells against mobile enemy forces who can get out of the way quickly.

    – counter UAV is a massive issue for both sides. As a drone sitting 5km in front of your position is able to effectively direct artillery while being essentially invulnerable to all but Tor and above grade SAMs.

    Using a Tor missile on a commercial drone is bad maths even with the Tor being a really cheap missile, and the launch vehicle only carries 8 missiles with reloading being a pain. So you can easily exhaust the missile supply even where the enemy has Tor coverage and temporarily open up the airspace.

    [Conjecture: is this something the Ukrainians can or are exploiting to help facilitate their TB2 strikes. Fly a bunch of DJIs obnoxiously around Russian forward positions to alert them to the presence of drones to have them waste their Tor missiles on the DJIs and then hit them with the TB2 before they can reload.]

    – the Russians really dropped the ball when it came to their field support capabilities for their amour. Back in the day, the Soviet army was the gold standard of battlefield support and logistics, with specialist support vehicles for pretty much every purpose.

    The Americans modelled their idealised motorised battalions on the Soviets, and the Chinese modelled their modernisation on the American idealised formation (which they later discovered the Americans didn’t even actually manage to achieve themselves).

    When the Chinese exercised with the Russians and they suffered minor calamities, the Chinese just assumed the Russians didn’t bother to bring their logistic support elements to the exercises and that they will do much better in real combat. But now it looks like they have actually really allowed all that capacity to atrophy to nothing, which is a great shame and problem, as amply demonstrated in Ukraine.

    As always, treat this as a perspective, not the gospel of God. To me, a Chinese angle is valuable since they have a pro-Russian bias from the outset yet are fairly removed from the conflict, so can afford to be fairly frank.

  693. @Mr. Hack
    https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/03/15/1647334156-6230530c81281.jpg


    https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/XcU_xIcujaWdHzDkPYZ47cDRcBw=/377x0:2628x1688/1200x900/media/img/mt/2022/01/xi_jinping_ukraine/original.jpg

    Who stands to possibly be the biggest winner of this war, by doing mostly nothing?...

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.

    The Bayraktyr drone is going to sell well.

    Syria will be Turkey’s to take as it pleases, a piece for Israel aside.

    The North Caucasus will fall giving Turkey a route to Central Asia and a big new market. The collapse of Russia’s food industry will give Turkey an even bigger market in Russia than it has now. More than enough to make up for poor Russian tourists. As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Philip Owen


    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.
     
    https://i.imgur.com/MEFARd4.png

    That's a big if. Turkey's trade deficits are racking up, inflation is at 70% and the currency is in a "soft peg".

    Sure, tourism season is likely to be better this year but Turkey imports a lot of oil and food which more than cancels out those gains, as import prices have risen a lot more than what they export, and volume increases cannot make up for that.

    As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.
     
    Most of Asia continues to buy Russian oil, which is where the future growth is. Turkey will not be in a position to dictate, and if anything will be prone to blackmail themselves from the West given their membership in NATO and their perilous financial position. Beggars can't be choosers.

    Replies: @songbird, @Wielgus, @Lurker

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Philip Owen

    How about China? We all know that there is a large landmass in Russia's east that was all taken under questionable circumstances. If ever there was a good time to reincorporate these lands into a greater China, I think that now would be a most propitious time to do so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus

  694. S says:
    @songbird
    @S


    I think some are too hard on the Scandis.
     
    Those were the days of warriors, and I think they were under population pressures (makes me wonder about the future of Africa in 2100).

    I must have a bit of Viking blood, but couldn't see myself LARPing as one, because it doesn't feel like a close connection. When I've thought of warriors, they were primarily Irish ones. Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland. The Hiberno-Norse gallowglasses helped serve as a check on Norman expansion because they provided the heavy infantry that the natives lacked.

    Kenneth Clark's Civilisation had a sort of moving segment about Vikings, midway through the first episode, which included this passage:

    If one wants a symbol of Atlantic man, as opposed to Mediterranean man, a symbol to set against the Greek temple, then it must be the Viking ship. The Greek temple is static, solid, crystalline. The Viking ship is light, mobile, buoyant, floating like a waterlily.
     

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts.
     
    Many years ago, I remember being a young boy at the Dublin Zoo, and I was walking along the outside of the polar bear exhibit, eating an icecream, and directly across the moat, the polar bear was following me. Unquestionably, me specifically.

    I couldn't resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat. Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.

    BTW, there is some castle in Czechia that has brown bears in the moat.

    Replies: @S, @S

    Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland.

    Yes, and no doubt as you know, one of these contributions was John F Kennedy via his maternal ancestor, Gerald de Windsor, an Anglo-Norman. It’s believed that Gerald de Windsor was born in Windsor Castle, yes the same castle Queen Elizabeth lives in today, in the 11th century.

    [MORE]

    The Hiberno-Norman’s who became ‘more Irish than the Irish’, as apparently the FitzGeralds did, were held in a certain amount of disdain/contempt by later arriving ‘Plantation’ English, and the English of England proper from what I’ve read. While it’s known there was some antagonism between elements of the Jewish people and their hangers on over the perceived behaviour of Joseph Kennedy during WWII, what’s less known is how the Kennedy’s were seen by the remaining Anglo-Saxon power structure of the US in the early 1960’s.

    Just a hypothesis, but, with their Catholocism and popularity, amongst other things, and taking their original maternal Anglo-Norman background into account, were the Kennedys seen as rebels, renegades, would be usurpers, even as ‘traitors’, by this remaining A-S elite?

    I’ve mentioned before, as commented upon by someone in the propaganda trade during WWII, how the purest and best propaganda is so subtle one doesn’t even know it’s there, particularly via its insertion into an entertaining movie.

    After the Kennedy assassination, people examining corporate mass media (ie television in particular) found evidence that someone (or something) other than Oswald seemed to have known in detail in advance what was going to happen regarding the JFK assassination, and had inserted this information into the plots of several television shows from the early 60’s. Why exactly, I wouldn’t know, but it’s uncanny what they found. [I think there might have been more of an occult element operating in the background in regards to events such as the Kennedy assassination than many might feel comfortable acknowledging.]

    If you find that sort of thing interesting, just check out my past post archives when they intersect with the Kennedy assassination threads.

    Windsor Castle

    He [Gerald de Windsor] was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland..

    Gerald de Windsor (c.1075 – 1135), alias Gerald FitzWalter, was an Anglo-Norman lord who was the first Castellan of Pembroke Castle in Pembrokeshire (formerly part of the Kingdom of Deheubarth), son of the Constable of Windsor Castle, and was in charge of the Norman forces in south-west Wales. He was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland…

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_de_Windsor

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Castle

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    But, to be honest, I never could get excited about the idea of a conspiracy with regard to their deaths because I see them both as having been part of the modern liberal establishment.

    Maybe, something hitting against the liberal establishment? But, if so, it seems like too weak and narrow an attack.

    BTW, it's interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an "antisemite." But, possibly it just has something to do with the way the composition of the elites changed over time.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @LondonBob, @S

  695. @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Hi Mikel,
    I haven't had much time for commenting the last few days but here is the latest update on the dowsing test. I'll email him back today.
    I would say that the ideal site would be a large empty field with something like a single buried straight utility line of known location in it. I would even be happy to do multiples of such a test to rule out dumb luck on the first. They would probably have to be wiling to trust the survey location since utilities are going to look dimly on people digging up their stuff. They generally have pretty good surveys though since they will mark everything out if one is doing excavation.

    So, not much hard progress. Just more groundwork.

    Sean,



    I’ve been thinking about claim since you last emailed me and I think we have a problem.



    I realize your claim is not finding things under cardboard boxes and it is not up to me to ask you to modify your claim.



    If you can find buried utility lines (which, by the way, is not hardly an unusual claim) that can be very helpful. But for $250K we would definitely need proof that what you say is there is really there, i.e., meaning digging it up. And I can’t really see any of us digging up part of Los Angeles, but nobody would be willing to trust any utility company maps.



    Likewise, if we were to bury a target object ourselves, we would know where it is, but I’m not sure how we would camouflage where we did that.



    That is why we have always tested this claim using surrogate targets and concealment.



    However, we remain quite interested in giving you the opportunity to demonstrate your ability in pursuit of the $250K Challenge. Can you suggest any other way we can make this work? The two criteria that must be met: 1) The circumstances are such that you can be successful and 2) We can be sure that you actually found what you say you found and there was no other way, including luck, that you could have found it.



    John K

    CFIIG

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

    If time is not of the essence, the testing firm could obtain information on sites currently being built and document where lines are being installed.

    Does rain have any impact? Damp soil has a higher density (kg/m³) than dry soil.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    No hurry on my end, so I'll mention it to them.

    I don't think the soil moisture from rain makes a difference. Though I've never tried to dowse an area before and after heavy rain, so I'm not sure. It's an interesting point and I'll have to add it to a list of variables to explore.

    It doesn't seem to have to do with recently disturbed soil, since things buried decades ago register, long after the soil should have returned to full compaction.

  696. S says:
    @songbird
    @S


    I think some are too hard on the Scandis.
     
    Those were the days of warriors, and I think they were under population pressures (makes me wonder about the future of Africa in 2100).

    I must have a bit of Viking blood, but couldn't see myself LARPing as one, because it doesn't feel like a close connection. When I've thought of warriors, they were primarily Irish ones. Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland. The Hiberno-Norse gallowglasses helped serve as a check on Norman expansion because they provided the heavy infantry that the natives lacked.

    Kenneth Clark's Civilisation had a sort of moving segment about Vikings, midway through the first episode, which included this passage:

    If one wants a symbol of Atlantic man, as opposed to Mediterranean man, a symbol to set against the Greek temple, then it must be the Viking ship. The Greek temple is static, solid, crystalline. The Viking ship is light, mobile, buoyant, floating like a waterlily.
     

    As an aside I find the medieval accounts of European royalty being given polar bears as gifts.
     
    Many years ago, I remember being a young boy at the Dublin Zoo, and I was walking along the outside of the polar bear exhibit, eating an icecream, and directly across the moat, the polar bear was following me. Unquestionably, me specifically.

    I couldn't resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat. Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.

    BTW, there is some castle in Czechia that has brown bears in the moat.

    Replies: @S, @S

    I couldn’t resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat.

    Just as well. The polar bear probably needed to be on a diet anyhow.

    Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.

    Yes, as the old saying goes, ‘Give a Polar Bear an inch, and they’ll take your arm and leg. Hooray for barriers! 🙂

    • Replies: @A123
    @S

    But.... Tactfully dressed Vikings rode chariots pulled by polar bears. [MORE]

    Is the London Underground investigating the use of polar bears for an as yet undisclosed function?

    The versatility of the species is amazing.

    PEACE 😇



    Viking Goddess, painting by John Freiberg

     
    https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large/viking-goddess-john-freiberg.jpg
     
    _____

    https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/giant-polar-bear-rides-london-underground-1485616
     
    https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1421498/giant-polar-bear-rides-london-underground.jpg

  697. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    1. If Russian troops return home today, no enemy army will follow them. The Russian people maintain complete control of their national destiny within the recognised borders of Russia.
     
    Mony troops fighting in Ukraine are indigenous Russian people in Eastern Ukraine are the those families supposed to stay after the RF army leaves?; I think the indigenous ethnic Russian in eastern Ukrainians would have much to fear if the army of the RF left.

    Regarding the Russian state leadership: are there any examples of a country acting as you think Russia ought to and simply ignoring which alliance its neighbour de facto joins?; I think not. No country in the world ignores what happens immediately outside their borders. Whether Russia's fears are justified or not, the brute fact that they are acting on them is proof the Russian leadership really believe their country will be in danger if they don't act.

    2. Russia cannot win this war and the longer they go on in denial of this fact, the more they create their own pain. It would have been better to have ended it yesterday instead of today, last month instead of this month, on day one instead of now, and before the war instead of once it begun. I’ve said this from the beginning, when it was already clear that Russia had no route to victory. They could only extend the time until they lost.
     
    In relative terms they have already lost. But all indications are that deep down the Russians consider losing in absolute terms an existential threat, and their reaction will be to escalate to another level in order to forestall such a loss. We cannot know at what point what the Russians will think they are going to lose, so it is an invisible line that Ukraine is getting closer to all the time.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Triteleia Laxa

    Sorry, I don’t buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war’s supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those “superficial changes” will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia’s atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries “ignoring” other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not “ignoring” and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine’s behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let’s all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can’t be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted
     
    Did they? We don't know if they would have done it anyway even if knowing how difficult and damaging the the international position of Russia it was going to be. I would point out that there were concerns that it would involve attacking a de facto member of Nato, which is not something that Russia could take so lightly. Anyway, it was months and tens of thousands of dead Russian soldiers ago and all indications are that Russia is not backing down in the face of a unbeatable Ukrainian war machine that the West has constructed. They Russians are totally committed to getting some kind of victory, however pyrrhic, and they do not seem to be capable of doing so already. They are about to face advanced counter battery artillery targeting that outranges their own, which means they will have no advantage at all.

    The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously
     
    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.

    If you can’t be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.
     
    That is the viewpoint of 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune'. However there is another way
    https://youtu.be/yKxTu0SQu6Y?t=404

    Personally , I think Professor Farkas is talking nonsense when she suggests, as do you ("If Russia uses a tactical nuk ... the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions" )that conventional forces (presumably F35s and Stealth bombers) would be used on Russian forces in Ukraine in the aftermath of a battlefield thermonuclear weapon use by Russia on West Ukraine, The US air force would clobber the Russians and why would they not use another nuke-- an anti aircraft one for maybe. Russians are said to be fatalistic a la ' to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them'.
    'So let’s all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly'

    Siegfried
    My sword once shattered a spear:
    the endless rope of fate’s decrees,
    if in its strands a curse hath been spun,
    Nothung shall cut it asunder!
    A dragon once warned me to flee the curse,
    but yet fear he brought not to me.
    (He contemplates the ring.)
    The world’s wealth hath a ring on me bestowed:
    for the grace of love had it been yours,
    and by your grace yet were it gained.
    But when limbs ye threaten and life,
    e’en tho’ a finger outweigh its worth,
    from me ye wrest not the ring.
    My limbs and my life, see:
    (He lifts a clod of earth from the ground, holds
    it over his head, and with the last words throws
    it behind him.)
    so freely I fling away!
     
    As with Siegfried when the Rhine maidens try to frighten him out of the Ring, for a certain type of person, the idea of being deterred is so abhorrent that warnings cab can seen as a dare After two decades Putin became blasé and insouciant, mow he begins the commonly seen self destructive phase of highly ambitious men's last years when they bring down what they had spent building up.
    Who is going to stop Putin from choosing death;? the Russian army generals who are being located by US intel for the ongoing Ukrainian assassination campaign against them? Chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff Mark Milley not having any cozy chats with his counterpart, because he is aready suspect. Putin must wonder why is Valery Gerasimov still alive. Putin is a counter intel specialist by training, and so I am sure he wonders whether the CIA divulging the whereabouts of those thought to be hard line generals in order to make sure that only the 'slabak's are left? In classic American plausible deniability style the intelligence is likely a quarter of an hour out of date , or maybe the stike was intended to just miss Gerasimov and give him some extra credibility.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @PhysicistDave
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Triteleia Laxa wrote to Sean:


    If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are...
     
    Oh, yeah, cause that's what always happens when a Great Power uses nuclear weapons!

    I mean, when the USA nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki (despite the fact that Japan was already in ruins from conventional bombing), the "world community" immediately ostracized the USA!

    I mean, it was decades before the USA was accepted again among civilized nations!

    I am remembering history correctly, right?

    You are so amusing... in kinda a cute but dumb way.

    I do hope you are getting paid to spew out this propaganda for the US Deep State.

    Or are you one of those who gives it away for free?
    , @awry
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway.
     
    Ukraine is far from liberal in that respect. Zelenskiy's government banned some opposition parties, imprisoned or forced to exile some opposition politicians (one was extradited by Spain recently), banned most opposition media, and since the war started it placed all media under government control (the latter is understandable). SBU works like Gestapo or KGB, disappearing or executing dissenters "Nacht und Nebel" style (nationalist militias also, they did some quite nastly stuff in 2014). Supporting Russia was a life risk in Ukraine since 2014, not just since February 24. Ukraine will be a borderline fascistic country after this war, in some respects it already resembled one, like the ubiquitous blue-yellow colors everywhere (even on lampposts), the ubiquitous "Slava Ukraini" slogan and other expressions of ultra-nationalistic sentiment etc. Ukrainian nationalists have long been making online hit lists of those disagreeing with them, disclosing their personal details, home addresses, etc. and encouraged them to be killed or harassed. Now they are also calling for the death of the Hungarian Prime Minister along with many other Hungarian and other European politicians.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  698. @Thulean Friend
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms


    Time is grinded out to get a fractionally higher score on 高考 gaokao, the college entrance exam, rather than to develop interesting hobbies or people skills.
     
    Just solidifies my view, since Swedish universities have been doing a fine job educating a workforce capable of creating a first-class country. What your anecdote tells me is that Chinese (and East Asians more broadly) don't value for their own and don't know how to use it efficiently.

    Productivity is the art of doing the most of your time, after all. And a major reason why East Asians are lagging behind the top Western countries is because of low productivity. This is true even for star performers like South Korea.

    This is why I don’t see the panic about there being 700 mln Chinese, 80 mln Japanese, 30 mln S. Koreans.
     
    I think the issue is composition rather than numbers. What happens when a huge fraction of your population are above the age of 50? Perhaps even a majority. It becomes a crushing burden for those in the working-age bracket, unless you cut down pensions down to a bare minimum, which means old-age poverty will be very high. This is the case already in China where any social support for the elderly is barely existing.


    Japan’s GDP was quite a lot higher than Germany’s in 80’s and 90’s. US launched a trade/financial war against Japan and successfully clipping her wings
     
    Part of Japan's ascent was built on a massive housing bubble. The most famous example was the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo being worth more than all of Manhattan at its peak. It was never going to last.

    As for the Plaza Accords, sure, but the yen had to come down anyway. I think that issue is overblown. Japan's real problem has been that it has been closed to foreigners. A very large percentage of America's tech titans were immigrants or born to immigrants. Musk himself is an example, the Google guys and lots of Asians (e.g. the co-founder of Sandisk and many others)

    East Asia will do fine, don't get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he's too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.

    At some point, I should probably write up a bigger effortpost of sorts with fully fleshed out data, tables, graphs and footnotes and send it to Unz in an act of utter vanity. But I'm probably too lazy, besides, I'm not going to launch a blogging career any time soon and I'm fully occupied - and satisfied - with what I do for a living for that to change any time soon.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Anatoly Karlin

    East Asia will do fine, don’t get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he’s too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.

    Merely affirming something over and over again does not make it true.

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My definition of a Sinotriumph scenario is 175% or higher of US GDP in 2040.

    In 2021 it was $17.5 trillion to $23 trillion (78%). The US is headed for a recession. It's possible 100% of US GDP could be reached in 2025.

  699. @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You're misinterpeting my words. I'm not claiming a moral argument one way or the other. You're the one treating geopolitics as a morality play. I'm simply pointing out that from the point of view of Russian national self-interest winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    And stop with this childish nonsense about people overthrowing dictators, as if somehow Navalny or some other opportunist grifter succeeds in convincing enough students to go protesting with placards Putin would realise how 'unpopular' he is and 'give up', imao. There is and has never been such thing as 'people power', populist revolutions only succeed where there exists another counter-elite that's already dissatisfied with the system, sees a real opportunity to replace people in power, high enough to offset consequences if they fail.

    When Russians and politicians with a conscience finally had enough of the nonstop pilfering of the country, Yeltsin shelled the Parliament building, with unknown hundreds of protesters 'disappeared' in the aftermath. Galina Starovoitova and others pleaded to various countries in Europe to side with the elected Parliament against Yeltsin assuming increasingly despotic powers, nobody did.

    Later in 1994, every oligarch, media personality and business interest in the country combined to form a coalition so Yeltsin could win. Polls were also probably rigged, but by that time ordinary people were too busy trying to survive to care any longer about politics (it only steadily got worse until 1999). In Central Asia and the Caucasus the economic situation was just as bad, alongside the Artsakh War and a Civil War in Taijistan.

    The Baltic countries and Poland had all their Soviet era debts written-off, and received extensive political support for the restructuring of their political systems, obviously the one-off opportunity of absorbing these countries into NATO and other American politico-economic structures couldn't be ignored. Even still, countries of Eastern Europe were in the main disappointed, they were promised the Social-Democracy of W. Europe's golden generation that rebuilt after WWII, and instead got neoliberalism, mass sell-offs (with former 'dissidents' like Havel getting fabulously rich), and ended up simply becoming cheap labour for Germany. It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    Of that was still far less compared to Russia actually reaching conditions of near-famine in the 90s. Under such circumstances it's hardly surprising pro-Western voices in Russia were permanently discredited, with both ethnic Russian chauvinism and imperalism making a huge comeback. I wouldn't go so far to say 'to understand all, is to forgive all', but the trajectory that led this war goes back a long time and practically made it inevitable. My own parents saw something like this eventually happening before Putin was even elected, because it was just so obvious that considering the way the Russia was ignored to fester, yet unable to be totally broken, it would try and recover its old power. One side of my family in particular was convinced it was going to fail doing so, and that it would be even uglier the 2nd time around (lots of arguments), which alongside the state being unable to even pay its researchers, finally convinced them to leave permanently.

    Lol 'taking over EU from within', you really are a WizardofOZ-tier naive dimwit aren't you? Russia asked for NATO observer staus multiple times and was laughed off. Putin later (along with Iran) even offered direct support for America's invasion of Afghanistan.
    Don't you understand the US can never see as Russia as anything but a rival, simply due to its geographic size and latent capability? It can't either be coopted or ignored, so the natural long-term strategy is its dismemberment. Of course that's in the interest of peoples like Poles, Ukrainians, Estonians or Chechens, but you can't expect Russians to get behind that.
    In fact even for Ukrainians, I'd closely watch American agrobusinesses and the like circling around the country like vultures, offering to 'rebuild' the country in the event it manages to hold most of it's territory. But PajeetPerspective/ThuleanFriend could comment on that side of things much better.

    A Nuclear force only protects a country against direct military attack. South Africa's old regime was convinced to give up power with a combination of economic pressure, internal sabotage and pretty lies, as was the USSR.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa, @A123, @Beckow

    Good overview.

    …winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.

    Right, this is it. Russia has the means to defeat Ukraine, destroy EU and probably the rest of the world with it. So why not call their bluff? Maybe they will just surrender because, why not?

    former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich

    Havel family was already rich before 1945 – they owned a lot of central Prague real estate, land-lords. Havel’s uncle was an infamous WWII German collaborator who run the Barrandov movie studios for the Nazis, and as part of the job provided Prague “starlets” as entertainment. Commies were very lenient with them, taking some properties (not all), and asking young Havel to get a real job – he chose to be a theatre stage-hand with his contacts. After 1989, Havels received their real estate back. Good deal overall for them.

    It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.

    It doesn’t. Nothing explains my opinions, you are being too linear. The same longing for the golden generation Social Democracy exists in Western Europe, and in the last few years also in the US. Nobody really likes neo-liberalism. There is no reason for an explanation, neo-liberalim is an ass..ole variant of capitalism that combines the worst features with society abandonment that borders on the idiotic “abolish the state” of early communists. Most Europeans see it about the same.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    Havel lost social status in the Socialist Republic and his hatred of Communism was pretty explicable in terms of his social origins.
    Lech Walesa by contrast was working class by origin and became wealthy following the collapse of Communism - no need to work in that shipyard now, which has been privatised. He has however been dogged by claims he was an informer for the security police in the 1970s.

  700. A123 says: • Website

    The quest for Open [Muslim] Borders into the EU expands again: (1)

     

     

    Fly the friendly skies to asylum in Austria!

    There’s a new Balkan Route for culture-enrichers who long to wage Asylum Jihad in Europe. They simply buy an air ticket from North Africa to Istanbul, and then board a second flight to Belgrade, where people-smugglers take them across Hungary to asylum paradise in Austria

    More and more North Africans are using the new refugee route by plane. The numbers alone prove that. From January to April 2021, a total of 2,000 migrants were discovered and registered in Burgenland.

    In the same period this year, 8,000 migrants have already been reported at the border with Hungary.

    How many Jihadist invaders enter at Burgenland, but do not stop there?

    Travel from Austria to Germany is cheap and protected by Schengen. Subsidies for illegal citizen replacement are higher in Germany. There is also a much better chance of importing additional Replacers at German government expense.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://gatesofvienna.net/2022/05/the-ottoman-empire-strikes-back/

  701. @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Hi Mikel,
    I haven't had much time for commenting the last few days but here is the latest update on the dowsing test. I'll email him back today.
    I would say that the ideal site would be a large empty field with something like a single buried straight utility line of known location in it. I would even be happy to do multiples of such a test to rule out dumb luck on the first. They would probably have to be wiling to trust the survey location since utilities are going to look dimly on people digging up their stuff. They generally have pretty good surveys though since they will mark everything out if one is doing excavation.

    So, not much hard progress. Just more groundwork.

    Sean,



    I’ve been thinking about claim since you last emailed me and I think we have a problem.



    I realize your claim is not finding things under cardboard boxes and it is not up to me to ask you to modify your claim.



    If you can find buried utility lines (which, by the way, is not hardly an unusual claim) that can be very helpful. But for $250K we would definitely need proof that what you say is there is really there, i.e., meaning digging it up. And I can’t really see any of us digging up part of Los Angeles, but nobody would be willing to trust any utility company maps.



    Likewise, if we were to bury a target object ourselves, we would know where it is, but I’m not sure how we would camouflage where we did that.



    That is why we have always tested this claim using surrogate targets and concealment.



    However, we remain quite interested in giving you the opportunity to demonstrate your ability in pursuit of the $250K Challenge. Can you suggest any other way we can make this work? The two criteria that must be met: 1) The circumstances are such that you can be successful and 2) We can be sure that you actually found what you say you found and there was no other way, including luck, that you could have found it.



    John K

    CFIIG

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

    It sounds like they are trying to find some reasonable common ground, which is interesting information for me.

    Perhaps one way to avoid signs of having altered the soil at a specific location would be to dig multiple trenches and bury a pipe with water in just one of them before covering them back. But I don’t know if all that disturbance would interfere with your abilities. Maybe you could do a field test yourself to try this out.

  702. A123 says: • Website
    @S
    @songbird


    I couldn’t resist. I tried to throw what was left of my cone across, but my small arm was too weak, and the polar bear watched it go down into the deep moat.
     
    Just as well. The polar bear probably needed to be on a diet anyhow.


    Probably it would have eaten me, if I were on the other side.
     
    Yes, as the old saying goes, 'Give a Polar Bear an inch, and they'll take your arm and leg. Hooray for barriers! :-)

    Replies: @A123

    But…. Tactfully dressed Vikings rode chariots pulled by polar bears. [MORE]

    Is the London Underground investigating the use of polar bears for an as yet undisclosed function?

    The versatility of the species is amazing.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

    Viking Goddess, painting by John Freiberg

     

     
    _____

    https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/giant-polar-bear-rides-london-underground-1485616
     

    • LOL: S
  703. https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/05/05/first-the-truth-now-art-also-is-%d0%b0-major-casualty-of-war/

    Excerpt –

    But yes, there is an unsung hero in all of this. His name is Ivan Kuliak. Ms. Netrebko should be singing arias to him, and Alexander Malofeev should be dedicating canticles to his slightly younger peer. At the Gymnastics World Cup competition in Doha on March 5, Ivan was not allowed to display the colours and emblems of his country, so for the awards ceremony where he was to receive the bronze medal he defiantly pasted to his T-shirt the proscribed letter “Z”.

    From the mouths of babes, indeed… The indomitable courage, pride, and quiet dignity of this boy, in contrast to the wishy-washiness of his elders and presumed betters, sends a rousing message of hope to all who despairingly feared that the boot would be stamping on the human face – forever. As far as it depends on Ivan, it won’t. By refusing to bend and compromise his honour, in this case by prostituting himself for an invitation to the next gymnastic competition, which now he is assured never to receive, Ivan acted out as an archetypal figure on behalf of his entire nation.

    And by doing so, he became also the standard by which integrity shall be recognized and measured, everywhere.

  704. @Beckow
    @Yevardian

    Good overview.


    ...winning this war in Ukraine is do-or-die for them.
     
    Right, this is it. Russia has the means to defeat Ukraine, destroy EU and probably the rest of the world with it. So why not call their bluff? Maybe they will just surrender because, why not?

    former ‘dissidents’ like Havel getting fabulously rich
     
    Havel family was already rich before 1945 - they owned a lot of central Prague real estate, land-lords. Havel's uncle was an infamous WWII German collaborator who run the Barrandov movie studios for the Nazis, and as part of the job provided Prague "starlets" as entertainment. Commies were very lenient with them, taking some properties (not all), and asking young Havel to get a real job - he chose to be a theatre stage-hand with his contacts. After 1989, Havels received their real estate back. Good deal overall for them.

    It also explains opinions of people like Beckow.
     
    It doesn't. Nothing explains my opinions, you are being too linear. The same longing for the golden generation Social Democracy exists in Western Europe, and in the last few years also in the US. Nobody really likes neo-liberalism. There is no reason for an explanation, neo-liberalim is an ass..ole variant of capitalism that combines the worst features with society abandonment that borders on the idiotic "abolish the state" of early communists. Most Europeans see it about the same.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    Havel lost social status in the Socialist Republic and his hatred of Communism was pretty explicable in terms of his social origins.
    Lech Walesa by contrast was working class by origin and became wealthy following the collapse of Communism – no need to work in that shipyard now, which has been privatised. He has however been dogged by claims he was an informer for the security police in the 1970s.

  705. @Ron Unz
    https://twitter.com/WamsuttaLives/status/1521208282312060929

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @nickels, @Mr. Hack, @SimplePseudonymicHandle

    The US has no need of deploying a false-flag nuke.

    Try and articulate the positive-US-case for a nuclear engagement. Form those words. See how they look and sound.

    Meanwhile: whether you understand it or not – Russia, is, losing.

    Russia is going to lose this. We know this – so why would we spoil a good thing with a nuke?

    It is near-high hysterical watching writer after writer on this site be wrong, wrong, and stupid-dumb-ignorant-to-high-bloody heaven, wrong – all while pretending to be experts of one kind or another.

    Rich, delicious, dessert.

    Pure entertainment at this point.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  706. A123 says: • Website

    whether you understand it or not – Russia, is, losing.

    Russia is going to lose this. We know this – so why would we spoil a good thing with a nuke?

    There is a huge difference between Russia underperforming and Ukraine winning. Perhaps you would like to answer the question that every Ukie Maximalists keeps trying to ignore?

    How will the Ukrainian military mount an “offensive” across open ground to retake Mariupol?

    It would require skillful execution from full armor and mechanized infantry. The Ukrainian military is so weak in those areas they could not “press” the soft target of Russian units voluntarily pulling back from west of Kiev.

    Ukraine has zero, none, nada chance of winning. Everyone knows this.
    ____

    The idea of a false flag nuke is scientifically inconceivable.

    No nuclear warhead is 100% pure Plutonium or Uranium. Every nation (really every individual reactor) is different. Fallout samples would be incredibly easy to obtain. Analysis for trace impurities would undeniably and irrefutably identify the material source.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Mikhail
  707. @S
    @songbird


    Though the Vikings made some interesting contributions to Ireland.
     
    Yes, and no doubt as you know, one of these contributions was John F Kennedy via his maternal ancestor, Gerald de Windsor, an Anglo-Norman. It's believed that Gerald de Windsor was born in Windsor Castle, yes the same castle Queen Elizabeth lives in today, in the 11th century.

    The Hiberno-Norman's who became 'more Irish than the Irish', as apparently the FitzGeralds did, were held in a certain amount of disdain/contempt by later arriving 'Plantation' English, and the English of England proper from what I've read. While it's known there was some antagonism between elements of the Jewish people and their hangers on over the perceived behaviour of Joseph Kennedy during WWII, what's less known is how the Kennedy's were seen by the remaining Anglo-Saxon power structure of the US in the early 1960's.

    Just a hypothesis, but, with their Catholocism and popularity, amongst other things, and taking their original maternal Anglo-Norman background into account, were the Kennedys seen as rebels, renegades, would be usurpers, even as 'traitors', by this remaining A-S elite?

    I've mentioned before, as commented upon by someone in the propaganda trade during WWII, how the purest and best propaganda is so subtle one doesn't even know it's there, particularly via its insertion into an entertaining movie.

    After the Kennedy assassination, people examining corporate mass media (ie television in particular) found evidence that someone (or something) other than Oswald seemed to have known in detail in advance what was going to happen regarding the JFK assassination, and had inserted this information into the plots of several television shows from the early 60's. Why exactly, I wouldn't know, but it's uncanny what they found. [I think there might have been more of an occult element operating in the background in regards to events such as the Kennedy assassination than many might feel comfortable acknowledging.]

    If you find that sort of thing interesting, just check out my past post archives when they intersect with the Kennedy assassination threads.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Windsor_Castle_at_Sunset_-_Nov_2006.jpg/320px-Windsor_Castle_at_Sunset_-_Nov_2006.jpg
    Windsor Castle

    He [Gerald de Windsor] was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland..


    Gerald de Windsor (c.1075 – 1135), alias Gerald FitzWalter, was an Anglo-Norman lord who was the first Castellan of Pembroke Castle in Pembrokeshire (formerly part of the Kingdom of Deheubarth), son of the Constable of Windsor Castle, and was in charge of the Norman forces in south-west Wales. He was the ancestor of the FitzGerald, FitzMaurice, De Barry, and Keating dynasties of Ireland...
     
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_de_Windsor

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Castle

    Replies: @songbird

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    But, to be honest, I never could get excited about the idea of a conspiracy with regard to their deaths because I see them both as having been part of the modern liberal establishment.

    Maybe, something hitting against the liberal establishment? But, if so, it seems like too weak and narrow an attack.

    BTW, it’s interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an “antisemite.” But, possibly it just has something to do with the way the composition of the elites changed over time.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @songbird


    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.
     
    This is somehow news to you here? Our Benevolent Overlord has only been writing about his research into this topic for years, I wonder how many people have the patience to read more than a Sailer shitpost:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-i-what-happened/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-ii-who-did-it/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-mossad-assassinations/

    I previously had zero interest in the topic, but by the end I spent quite a bit of time reading about it. Nearly all the bibliography he listed can also be easily found free on libgen, if you're not too lazy to read a book.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @LondonBob
    @songbird

    Jack Ruby did give the game away.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @S
    @songbird


    BTW, it’s interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an “antisemite.”
     
    Some elements amongst the Jewish people felt Joseph Kennedy as wartime US Ambassador to the UK was hostile towards them and cost Jewish lives.

    About the TV shows mentioned, which seem to indicate possible foreknowledge of the assassination, they were two episodes of a Jewish produced TV series called Route 66. They are both on YouTube for free and are each 50 minutes long approximately. [I've linked them below, but if the links don't work, the 1962 episode was called 'Love is a Skinny Kid', and the 1963 episode was called 'I'm Here to Kill a King'.]

    The 1962 episode is full of 'the H' symbolism as perceived by some of the Jewish people and is something of an allegory. It tells the story of Miriam (the name of Moses sister) and her mother Lydia (the name of Europe's first Christian), the latter who unjustly cast Miriam out of her family home (and the Texas town they live in) in a 'night and fog' like action. The townspeople are shown to have been callous, indifferent, and even hostile to Miriam's plight. A flashback scene shows Miriam (while still living in the town) being burned by fire. She calls out prayerfully to her father for help, but receives no answer. We are told her father had died mid-war in 1943.

    Years later an angry and hatred consumed Miriam returns to the town to confront her mother and the townspeople for what she feels they did to her. She, in the style of Guy Fawkes night (which of course regards the November gunpowder powder plot to assassinate the king of England) wears a mask and burns a figure in effigy in front of her mother Lydia's new home.

    As the town is called Kilkenny, the townspeople are referred to as 'Kilkennians', which is as close to saying 'Kill Kennedy' as is humanly possible without simply saying it. Similarly, while there is no Kilkenny, TX, there is a Kilkenny, Ireland, which is as close to simply saying the Kennedy family homestead as is humanly possible, without simply saying it [the Kennedy homestead is located along the Kilkenny County river border, in the neighboring County, a figurative 'stone's toss away from Kilkenny].

    Madame Dafarge is specifically mentioned in the script. She was the Dicken's French Revolutionairy character who would encode the names of those whom were to be executed into her knitting. And was Kennedy's encoded name knit into the script of this episode to signal his own coming execution?

    The I'm Here to Kill a King episode tells the story of a young new hire, a wholly innocent man. Due to the happenstance of his new worksite's location being located alongside the motorcade route of a visiting country's chief executive, he is to be the ideal fall guy for a high level assassination plot. It's pre-arranged the assassin is to be himself killed before he can talk. [The sub-theme of this episode is Arabs, ground zero, and New York.]

    It's documented that while the series was in the Dallas area filming in late 1961 that Jack Ruby would play host to the production crew after hours at his downtown Dallas Carousel Club.

    The 'copycat' link below has stills from 'Love is a Skinny Kid'. Disregard the esoteric mumbo jumbo.


    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ef8-DwrI7Vg/UDYcLY2wEJI/AAAAAAAAH8Y/AYiTVDIPNeU/s1600/skinnykid11.jpg

    https://youtu.be/_4EMPihMZug

    https://youtu.be/bKJ1zAXkOOU

    https://copycateffect.blogspot.com/2012/08/weld.html?m=1

    Replies: @S

  708. @songbird
    @S

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    But, to be honest, I never could get excited about the idea of a conspiracy with regard to their deaths because I see them both as having been part of the modern liberal establishment.

    Maybe, something hitting against the liberal establishment? But, if so, it seems like too weak and narrow an attack.

    BTW, it's interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an "antisemite." But, possibly it just has something to do with the way the composition of the elites changed over time.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @LondonBob, @S

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    This is somehow news to you here? Our Benevolent Overlord has only been writing about his research into this topic for years, I wonder how many people have the patience to read more than a Sailer shitpost:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-i-what-happened/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-ii-who-did-it/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-mossad-assassinations/

    I previously had zero interest in the topic, but by the end I spent quite a bit of time reading about it. Nearly all the bibliography he listed can also be easily found free on libgen, if you’re not too lazy to read a book.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yevardian

    I'm familiar with some of the details, but I honestly just can't see it.

    None of them were what I would call "men of character", so, it is pretty hard to see them taking a principled stand. If you ignore things like The Dark Side of Camelot, you still have Ted whose proclivities were well known into recent times. He was my senator. (BTW, one of my relations got a small inheritance from Rose, for his mother being a nursemaid to them). In '61, Ted once rented out a whole whorehouse in Chile.

    They were obviously liberals, within an American context, (JFK wanted a black man on the Moon) which I think fits pretty well with pro-zionism. And certainly not into a Jewish-skeptical stance.

    RFK wrote glowing articles about the Israelis. “Jews Have a Fine Fighting Force—Make Up for Lack of Arms With Undying Spirit, Unparalleled Courage—Impress the World.” “The Jewish people in Palestine who believe in and have been working toward this national state have become an immensely proud and determined people. It is already a truly great modern example of the birth of a nation with the primary ingredients of dignity and self-respect.”

    There are many Jews in the Boston area, and they are heavily influential. There's a Holocaust memorial in prime real estate downtown. A bridge that was supposed to be named for a Revolutionary War battle is effectively named after an old local head of the ADL. Brandeis, probably the most famous Jewish college in the US, is in the Boston area. What were the Jewish numbers at Harvard when they went? I imagine pretty high.

    To you, the Kennedy family is probably exotic and interesting. But bringing them up to me, someone who grew up on streets where they shook hands while campaigning, is like bringing up WW2 to a German.

    Besides, it is hard to get interested in politicians anyway. IMO, you can change one for another. Rarely does it make any difference. Trump was one of the exceptions in rhetoric, and he mostly fizzled, other than for his SCOTUS surprise, which, will in all probability, be overturned in time, when the court is repacked.

  709. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.
     
    This is somehow news to you here? Our Benevolent Overlord has only been writing about his research into this topic for years, I wonder how many people have the patience to read more than a Sailer shitpost:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-i-what-happened/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-the-jfk-assassination-part-ii-who-did-it/
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-mossad-assassinations/

    I previously had zero interest in the topic, but by the end I spent quite a bit of time reading about it. Nearly all the bibliography he listed can also be easily found free on libgen, if you're not too lazy to read a book.

    Replies: @songbird

    I’m familiar with some of the details, but I honestly just can’t see it.

    [MORE]

    None of them were what I would call “men of character”, so, it is pretty hard to see them taking a principled stand. If you ignore things like The Dark Side of Camelot, you still have Ted whose proclivities were well known into recent times. He was my senator. (BTW, one of my relations got a small inheritance from Rose, for his mother being a nursemaid to them). In ’61, Ted once rented out a whole whorehouse in Chile.

    They were obviously liberals, within an American context, (JFK wanted a black man on the Moon) which I think fits pretty well with pro-zionism. And certainly not into a Jewish-skeptical stance.

    RFK wrote glowing articles about the Israelis. “Jews Have a Fine Fighting Force—Make Up for Lack of Arms With Undying Spirit, Unparalleled Courage—Impress the World.” “The Jewish people in Palestine who believe in and have been working toward this national state have become an immensely proud and determined people. It is already a truly great modern example of the birth of a nation with the primary ingredients of dignity and self-respect.”

    There are many Jews in the Boston area, and they are heavily influential. There’s a Holocaust memorial in prime real estate downtown. A bridge that was supposed to be named for a Revolutionary War battle is effectively named after an old local head of the ADL. Brandeis, probably the most famous Jewish college in the US, is in the Boston area. What were the Jewish numbers at Harvard when they went? I imagine pretty high.

    To you, the Kennedy family is probably exotic and interesting. But bringing them up to me, someone who grew up on streets where they shook hands while campaigning, is like bringing up WW2 to a German.

    Besides, it is hard to get interested in politicians anyway. IMO, you can change one for another. Rarely does it make any difference. Trump was one of the exceptions in rhetoric, and he mostly fizzled, other than for his SCOTUS surprise, which, will in all probability, be overturned in time, when the court is repacked.

  710. @Philip Owen
    @Mr. Hack

    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.

    The Bayraktyr drone is going to sell well.

    Syria will be Turkey's to take as it pleases, a piece for Israel aside.

    The North Caucasus will fall giving Turkey a route to Central Asia and a big new market. The collapse of Russia's food industry will give Turkey an even bigger market in Russia than it has now. More than enough to make up for poor Russian tourists. As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Mr. Hack

    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.

    That’s a big if. Turkey’s trade deficits are racking up, inflation is at 70% and the currency is in a “soft peg”.

    Sure, tourism season is likely to be better this year but Turkey imports a lot of oil and food which more than cancels out those gains, as import prices have risen a lot more than what they export, and volume increases cannot make up for that.

    As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.

    Most of Asia continues to buy Russian oil, which is where the future growth is. Turkey will not be in a position to dictate, and if anything will be prone to blackmail themselves from the West given their membership in NATO and their perilous financial position. Beggars can’t be choosers.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Many are bulls on Turkey. Not because it is doing great, but since the Balkans has low TFR and much of the ME is unstable. Plus, they control the water.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    , @Wielgus
    @Thulean Friend

    As I noted elsewhere, Zelensky denounced Turkey for still hosting Russian tourists and a creature of the Turkish president retorted that Zelensky is a "stupid comedian". Although the Turk is himself one of the clowns of Turkish politics, I found the obvious lack of hero worship for Zelensky refreshing. Basically the Turks need the Russian tourist sector. They are trying to keep in with both sides, like in WW2. They are also struggling with inflation.

    , @Lurker
    @Thulean Friend


    if it can get its economic act together.
     
    Doesn't that apply to every country?
  711. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Sorry, I don't buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war's supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those "superficial changes" will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia's atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries "ignoring" other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not "ignoring" and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine's behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let's all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can't be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Sean, @PhysicistDave, @awry

    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wokechoke

    US isn’t at war with Iran or Cuba though. It wasn’t stupid enough to get itself into such a war.

    , @A123
    @Wokechoke


    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.
     
    You suggestion seems unlikely.

    There is still no evidence supporting the idea that the Moskva was sunk by undersized Neptune warheads. Even with perfect guidance, they are too small to punch through capital ship hull armor. That leaves some sort of above hull line strike. A picture from the front has leaked and it looks like all of the launch tubes are intact. What could the Neptunes have possibly hit?

    The original Russian announcement blamed a non-combat issue. The pictures we have seen are consistent with an internal fire caused by 'operator error'. The soot at each vent largely confirms that it burned for a long time throughout much of the ship.

    While the idea of losing a ship to 'operator error' is bad, losing it to 'sabotage' while fully crewed is worse. If it was 'sabotage' that information will be kept secret to protect counterintelligence sources and methods.

    As long as the official (and most likely true) explanation of 'operator error' remains in place that eliminates any open justification for Russian retaliation. This is good news as it would cause the European intelligence agencies, notably Poland's, to consider plausible false flags. Sinking an old, empty freighter with no identifiable crew on board is within Poland's black budget.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @awry

  712. • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Mikhail

    Were all these horrid blasphemies banned, or just the one about the Ukrainian soldier?

  713. @Thulean Friend
    @Philip Owen


    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.
     
    https://i.imgur.com/MEFARd4.png

    That's a big if. Turkey's trade deficits are racking up, inflation is at 70% and the currency is in a "soft peg".

    Sure, tourism season is likely to be better this year but Turkey imports a lot of oil and food which more than cancels out those gains, as import prices have risen a lot more than what they export, and volume increases cannot make up for that.

    As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.
     
    Most of Asia continues to buy Russian oil, which is where the future growth is. Turkey will not be in a position to dictate, and if anything will be prone to blackmail themselves from the West given their membership in NATO and their perilous financial position. Beggars can't be choosers.

    Replies: @songbird, @Wielgus, @Lurker

    Many are bulls on Turkey. Not because it is doing great, but since the Balkans has low TFR and much of the ME is unstable. Plus, they control the water.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @songbird


    Many are bulls on Turkey.
     
    What about bulls in Turkey?



    https://i.imgur.com/sbt0F0u.jpg
  714. How does Elizabeth Warren, a woman of advanced age, not burn herself out with the shrill fire that consumes her?

  715. @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    US isn’t at war with Iran or Cuba though. It wasn’t stupid enough to get itself into such a war.

  716. @Philip Owen
    @Mr. Hack

    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.

    The Bayraktyr drone is going to sell well.

    Syria will be Turkey's to take as it pleases, a piece for Israel aside.

    The North Caucasus will fall giving Turkey a route to Central Asia and a big new market. The collapse of Russia's food industry will give Turkey an even bigger market in Russia than it has now. More than enough to make up for poor Russian tourists. As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Mr. Hack

    How about China? We all know that there is a large landmass in Russia’s east that was all taken under questionable circumstances. If ever there was a good time to reincorporate these lands into a greater China, I think that now would be a most propitious time to do so.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    China signed a treaty to renounce the claims I remember

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    , @Wielgus
    @Mr. Hack

    This would depend on the Chinese thinking they do not face a threat from the USA. They do.

  717. @Mr. Hack
    @Philip Owen

    How about China? We all know that there is a large landmass in Russia's east that was all taken under questionable circumstances. If ever there was a good time to reincorporate these lands into a greater China, I think that now would be a most propitious time to do so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus

    China signed a treaty to renounce the claims I remember

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Yellowface Anon

    Seems like all treaties and international laws are meaningless today, thanks to Russia's brazen and wild actions. Besides Russia, who would criticize China for any such moves? China's claims to Outer Manchuria including the Amur oblast that were taken from them in the 1850's, can't be seriously considered Russian territory for eternity? Since Russia is trying to change the map of the world today, perhaps China should get in on the act too. BTW, I've heard that China is refusing to provide parts for many of Russia's damaged weaponry and calls for other needed items too.

    , @Philip Owen
    @Yellowface Anon

    Xi discussed rectifying unequal treaties at his inauguration. The only one still outstanding was the one with the Russian Empire. Angela Merkel even gave him a map of China showing northrn Manchuria now lost in Russia.

  718. @Thulean Friend
    @Philip Owen


    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.
     
    https://i.imgur.com/MEFARd4.png

    That's a big if. Turkey's trade deficits are racking up, inflation is at 70% and the currency is in a "soft peg".

    Sure, tourism season is likely to be better this year but Turkey imports a lot of oil and food which more than cancels out those gains, as import prices have risen a lot more than what they export, and volume increases cannot make up for that.

    As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.
     
    Most of Asia continues to buy Russian oil, which is where the future growth is. Turkey will not be in a position to dictate, and if anything will be prone to blackmail themselves from the West given their membership in NATO and their perilous financial position. Beggars can't be choosers.

    Replies: @songbird, @Wielgus, @Lurker

    As I noted elsewhere, Zelensky denounced Turkey for still hosting Russian tourists and a creature of the Turkish president retorted that Zelensky is a “stupid comedian”. Although the Turk is himself one of the clowns of Turkish politics, I found the obvious lack of hero worship for Zelensky refreshing. Basically the Turks need the Russian tourist sector. They are trying to keep in with both sides, like in WW2. They are also struggling with inflation.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  719. @Mikhail
    https://twitter.com/PaddyPutin/status/1522252955734495233

    Replies: @Wielgus

    Were all these horrid blasphemies banned, or just the one about the Ukrainian soldier?

  720. @Mr. Hack
    @Philip Owen

    How about China? We all know that there is a large landmass in Russia's east that was all taken under questionable circumstances. If ever there was a good time to reincorporate these lands into a greater China, I think that now would be a most propitious time to do so.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Wielgus

    This would depend on the Chinese thinking they do not face a threat from the USA. They do.

  721. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Wokechoke

    Has anybody with decent statistics compared Irish famine c 1850 and Ukraine famine c 1930? There is something horrific about people starving to death and the farmland and plants and what not in their neighborhood yielding pretty much like any normal year. That takes systematic organized sadism.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon

    Every European country starved, especially the Low Countries, Germany, Poland and the Russian Empire. This is one of the causes of the Revolutions of 1848. Granted, these countries never had it as bad as the Irish and they could demographically recover up to WWI.

  722. @songbird
    @S

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    But, to be honest, I never could get excited about the idea of a conspiracy with regard to their deaths because I see them both as having been part of the modern liberal establishment.

    Maybe, something hitting against the liberal establishment? But, if so, it seems like too weak and narrow an attack.

    BTW, it's interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an "antisemite." But, possibly it just has something to do with the way the composition of the elites changed over time.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @LondonBob, @S

    Jack Ruby did give the game away.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @LondonBob

    If a guy shot Barack in his first term, plenty of people would have been gunning for him.

  723. S says:
    @songbird
    @S

    As I recall, utu seems to think that JFK and RFK were secretly killed by Zionists.

    But, to be honest, I never could get excited about the idea of a conspiracy with regard to their deaths because I see them both as having been part of the modern liberal establishment.

    Maybe, something hitting against the liberal establishment? But, if so, it seems like too weak and narrow an attack.

    BTW, it's interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an "antisemite." But, possibly it just has something to do with the way the composition of the elites changed over time.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @LondonBob, @S

    BTW, it’s interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an “antisemite.”

    Some elements amongst the Jewish people felt Joseph Kennedy as wartime US Ambassador to the UK was hostile towards them and cost Jewish lives.

    [MORE]

    About the TV shows mentioned, which seem to indicate possible foreknowledge of the assassination, they were two episodes of a Jewish produced TV series called Route 66. They are both on YouTube for free and are each 50 minutes long approximately. [I’ve linked them below, but if the links don’t work, the 1962 episode was called ‘Love is a Skinny Kid’, and the 1963 episode was called ‘I’m Here to Kill a King’.]

    The 1962 episode is full of ‘the H’ symbolism as perceived by some of the Jewish people and is something of an allegory. It tells the story of Miriam (the name of Moses sister) and her mother Lydia (the name of Europe’s first Christian), the latter who unjustly cast Miriam out of her family home (and the Texas town they live in) in a ‘night and fog’ like action. The townspeople are shown to have been callous, indifferent, and even hostile to Miriam’s plight. A flashback scene shows Miriam (while still living in the town) being burned by fire. She calls out prayerfully to her father for help, but receives no answer. We are told her father had died mid-war in 1943.

    Years later an angry and hatred consumed Miriam returns to the town to confront her mother and the townspeople for what she feels they did to her. She, in the style of Guy Fawkes night (which of course regards the November gunpowder powder plot to assassinate the king of England) wears a mask and burns a figure in effigy in front of her mother Lydia’s new home.

    As the town is called Kilkenny, the townspeople are referred to as ‘Kilkennians’, which is as close to saying ‘Kill Kennedy’ as is humanly possible without simply saying it. Similarly, while there is no Kilkenny, TX, there is a Kilkenny, Ireland, which is as close to simply saying the Kennedy family homestead as is humanly possible, without simply saying it [the Kennedy homestead is located along the Kilkenny County river border, in the neighboring County, a figurative ‘stone’s toss away from Kilkenny].

    Madame Dafarge is specifically mentioned in the script. She was the Dicken’s French Revolutionairy character who would encode the names of those whom were to be executed into her knitting. And was Kennedy’s encoded name knit into the script of this episode to signal his own coming execution?

    The I’m Here to Kill a King episode tells the story of a young new hire, a wholly innocent man. Due to the happenstance of his new worksite’s location being located alongside the motorcade route of a visiting country’s chief executive, he is to be the ideal fall guy for a high level assassination plot. It’s pre-arranged the assassin is to be himself killed before he can talk. [The sub-theme of this episode is Arabs, ground zero, and New York.]

    It’s documented that while the series was in the Dallas area filming in late 1961 that Jack Ruby would play host to the production crew after hours at his downtown Dallas Carousel Club.

    The ‘copycat’ link below has stills from ‘Love is a Skinny Kid’. Disregard the esoteric mumbo jumbo.

    https://copycateffect.blogspot.com/2012/08/weld.html?m=1

    • Replies: @S
    @S

    I'd forgotten to mention a couple of things in the previous post:

    In the Love is a Skinny Kid episode when Miriam does the Guy Fawkes like burning in effigy thing a character is heard saying 'I don't like you Jack!' to someone not named Jack.

    In I'm Here to Kill a King the assassin tells the Oswald like character it was as if 'someone pulled the strings' behind the scenes to arrange he get his new job there along the motorcade route, and that was just 'too bad' for him, as he (the Oswald type character) was gonna have to die.

    I'm Here to Kill a King was filmed in October, '63, in real time as Oswald was being hired on at the Texas School Book Depository.

    http://www.ohio66.com/newspaper/dallas/Bob-Maharis-Carousel-Club.jpg

    'ROUTE 66'ers took in the show at Carousel. From left it's unit mgr. Bob Maharis, Carousel's Najada and Route 66 stuntman Fred Stromsoe.' Dallas Times Herald — December 5, 1961


    The easiest way to inject a propaganda idea into most people’s minds is to let it go through the medium of an entertainment picture when they do not realize that they are being propagandized.— Elmer Davis, chief of the Office of War Information during WWII, as quoted in Hollywood Goes to War
     
    http://www.ohio66.com/newspaper/dallas/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmer_Davis

    Replies: @songbird

  724. AP says:

    If true, this means the Russian military is an awful lot like the Ukrainian military of 2014, just much larger in size which provides a quality of its own, to an extent, but may not be enough to win. These stories are a lot like the Ukrainian military’s 2014 debacles. Might be good timing timing for Ukraine, that Russia attacked it while it’s military was in such a state while Ukraine’s had improved immensely:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/they-deceived-us-at-every-step-south-ossetian-troops-blast-russias-war-in-ukraine?source=articles&via=rss

    “ Of the 11 days [that we were there,] I wouldn’t even wish on an enemy what happened there. All the equipment didn’t work, I’m telling you straight… There was no command staff,” another soldier told the South Ossetian leader.

    Out of 10 tanks, the first soldier said, only three fired. “The artillery mortar for the mortar-gunners didn’t work, the legs were all crooked,” he said.”

    There was no command. And if the officers didn’t know what to do, what is the sergeant doing there?” another soldier was quoted saying.

    He said “99 percent of the equipment” in another unit didn’t even work, but when the troops warned the senior in command that their vehicles didn’t work and their guns “did not fire,” he shrugged it off and said to just “go like that.”

    [MORE]

    In another case, troops complained of their commander “disappearing” every time fighting started.

    “He was afraid of his own men. He made himself a security team out of a few of the guys. The commander refused to come out and talk to his own guys and was saying that he’d be beaten,” one soldier said.

    Eventually, “some guys from spetsnaz [special forces]” really did beat him and left his “face all bloody,” he said.

    They said the Russian troops never had backup plans, or escape routes. Another soldier said one of his wounded comrades in Russian-occupied Donetsk was getting no medical care.

    “He says that the first day they bandaged him, but there’s still shrapnel inside him. He says his hand is very swollen, and nobody is doing anything, the doctors aren’t even coming to see him. He’s been there for five days, and the doctors are only asking him for money,” he said.

    After hearing the soldiers paint a picture of such utter dysfunction, Bibilov asked the men directly if they believe Russia will lose the war.

    One soldier spoke up: “Yes, we believe they will lose.”

  725. @AP
    @Wokechoke

    No, their treatment of Ukrainians was somewhere between the way that English treated Scots and the way that English treated the Irish. There were elements of both.

    Also, the Russian states treated tjeie own people rather horribly so Ukrainians getting treated by Moscow similarly to how Russians were treated by Moscow was nothing to be pleased about. Better to get out of the Russian World.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @LondonBob

    Getting your history from Braveheart isn’t the wisest thing to do.

    • Replies: @AP
    @LondonBob

    What in my post suggested that?

  726. Colonel Cassad Russian site – Yandex translation edited with my note
    Abandoned and forgotten

    Ukrainian commanders were forbidden to take the bodies of those killed by Russians and separatists. The General Staff sent a new order to the troops. According to the document, commanders at all levels are prohibited from organising the exchange of the dead. It is also forbidden to negotiate with Russians or separatists on this issue. According to our source, the new order was prepared by the Ministry of Defence based on the decision of the President’s Office. The document has a security stamp, but it does not indicate what such a decision is related to. Disobedient commanders face dismissal.

    Actually, there was no big secret here before. Against the background of reports that certain prisoner exchanges are taking place (more than 300 people have already been exchanged on each side), there is practically no information about the exchanges of the dead. Commanders from the field noted that all proposals to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to take their dead were rejected.

    In view of this, our funeral teams are engaged in the burial of the killed AFU troops, collecting the dead as the troops advance. Videos on this topic are released regularly.

    The reasons for the refusal are quite clear – if you take the corpses, then they need to be buried, which means even more information about the real level of losses will leak into Ukrainian society. And the point here is not even the payment of compensation (although that is also a factor), but first of all the concealment of the real size of the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are now hurriedly trying to compensate at the expense of reservists and Volkssturm.
    (Photo of dead AFU soldier – glory to the heroes and treat their corpses with less concern than might be shown to a dead stray cat)

    • Thanks: Thulean Friend
  727. @A123
    @Barbarossa

    If time is not of the essence, the testing firm could obtain information on sites currently being built and document where lines are being installed.

    Does rain have any impact? Damp soil has a higher density (kg/m³) than dry soil.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    No hurry on my end, so I’ll mention it to them.

    I don’t think the soil moisture from rain makes a difference. Though I’ve never tried to dowse an area before and after heavy rain, so I’m not sure. It’s an interesting point and I’ll have to add it to a list of variables to explore.

    It doesn’t seem to have to do with recently disturbed soil, since things buried decades ago register, long after the soil should have returned to full compaction.

  728. A123 says: • Website
    @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.

    Replies: @AP, @A123

    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.

    You suggestion seems unlikely.

    There is still no evidence supporting the idea that the Moskva was sunk by undersized Neptune warheads. Even with perfect guidance, they are too small to punch through capital ship hull armor. That leaves some sort of above hull line strike. A picture from the front has leaked and it looks like all of the launch tubes are intact. What could the Neptunes have possibly hit?

    The original Russian announcement blamed a non-combat issue. The pictures we have seen are consistent with an internal fire caused by ‘operator error’. The soot at each vent largely confirms that it burned for a long time throughout much of the ship.

    While the idea of losing a ship to ‘operator error’ is bad, losing it to ‘sabotage’ while fully crewed is worse. If it was ‘sabotage’ that information will be kept secret to protect counterintelligence sources and methods.

    As long as the official (and most likely true) explanation of ‘operator error’ remains in place that eliminates any open justification for Russian retaliation. This is good news as it would cause the European intelligence agencies, notably Poland’s, to consider plausible false flags. Sinking an old, empty freighter with no identifiable crew on board is within Poland’s black budget.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @awry
    @A123

    Looks like Russia lost another ship now. One of their most advanced ships, the Admiral Makarov.
    Ukraine regularly attacks oil storages and plants on DNR and Russian territory (with missiles, helicopters or drones) with impunity. Apparently they manage to sabotage other ones deep in Russian territory too. Russia is more and more resembling some Arab or African semi-failed state. Apparent total incompetence as usual.

    Replies: @A123

  729. @LondonBob
    @AP

    Getting your history from Braveheart isn't the wisest thing to do.

    Replies: @AP

    What in my post suggested that?

  730. S says:
    @S
    @songbird


    BTW, it’s interesting to contrast the three brothers with their father, who some have called an “antisemite.”
     
    Some elements amongst the Jewish people felt Joseph Kennedy as wartime US Ambassador to the UK was hostile towards them and cost Jewish lives.

    About the TV shows mentioned, which seem to indicate possible foreknowledge of the assassination, they were two episodes of a Jewish produced TV series called Route 66. They are both on YouTube for free and are each 50 minutes long approximately. [I've linked them below, but if the links don't work, the 1962 episode was called 'Love is a Skinny Kid', and the 1963 episode was called 'I'm Here to Kill a King'.]

    The 1962 episode is full of 'the H' symbolism as perceived by some of the Jewish people and is something of an allegory. It tells the story of Miriam (the name of Moses sister) and her mother Lydia (the name of Europe's first Christian), the latter who unjustly cast Miriam out of her family home (and the Texas town they live in) in a 'night and fog' like action. The townspeople are shown to have been callous, indifferent, and even hostile to Miriam's plight. A flashback scene shows Miriam (while still living in the town) being burned by fire. She calls out prayerfully to her father for help, but receives no answer. We are told her father had died mid-war in 1943.

    Years later an angry and hatred consumed Miriam returns to the town to confront her mother and the townspeople for what she feels they did to her. She, in the style of Guy Fawkes night (which of course regards the November gunpowder powder plot to assassinate the king of England) wears a mask and burns a figure in effigy in front of her mother Lydia's new home.

    As the town is called Kilkenny, the townspeople are referred to as 'Kilkennians', which is as close to saying 'Kill Kennedy' as is humanly possible without simply saying it. Similarly, while there is no Kilkenny, TX, there is a Kilkenny, Ireland, which is as close to simply saying the Kennedy family homestead as is humanly possible, without simply saying it [the Kennedy homestead is located along the Kilkenny County river border, in the neighboring County, a figurative 'stone's toss away from Kilkenny].

    Madame Dafarge is specifically mentioned in the script. She was the Dicken's French Revolutionairy character who would encode the names of those whom were to be executed into her knitting. And was Kennedy's encoded name knit into the script of this episode to signal his own coming execution?

    The I'm Here to Kill a King episode tells the story of a young new hire, a wholly innocent man. Due to the happenstance of his new worksite's location being located alongside the motorcade route of a visiting country's chief executive, he is to be the ideal fall guy for a high level assassination plot. It's pre-arranged the assassin is to be himself killed before he can talk. [The sub-theme of this episode is Arabs, ground zero, and New York.]

    It's documented that while the series was in the Dallas area filming in late 1961 that Jack Ruby would play host to the production crew after hours at his downtown Dallas Carousel Club.

    The 'copycat' link below has stills from 'Love is a Skinny Kid'. Disregard the esoteric mumbo jumbo.


    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ef8-DwrI7Vg/UDYcLY2wEJI/AAAAAAAAH8Y/AYiTVDIPNeU/s1600/skinnykid11.jpg

    https://youtu.be/_4EMPihMZug

    https://youtu.be/bKJ1zAXkOOU

    https://copycateffect.blogspot.com/2012/08/weld.html?m=1

    Replies: @S

    I’d forgotten to mention a couple of things in the previous post:

    [MORE]

    In the Love is a Skinny Kid episode when Miriam does the Guy Fawkes like burning in effigy thing a character is heard saying ‘I don’t like you Jack!’ to someone not named Jack.

    In I’m Here to Kill a King the assassin tells the Oswald like character it was as if ‘someone pulled the strings’ behind the scenes to arrange he get his new job there along the motorcade route, and that was just ‘too bad’ for him, as he (the Oswald type character) was gonna have to die.

    I’m Here to Kill a King was filmed in October, ’63, in real time as Oswald was being hired on at the Texas School Book Depository.

    ‘ROUTE 66’ers took in the show at Carousel. From left it’s unit mgr. Bob Maharis, Carousel’s Najada and Route 66 stuntman Fred Stromsoe.’ Dallas Times Herald — December 5, 1961

    The easiest way to inject a propaganda idea into most people’s minds is to let it go through the medium of an entertainment picture when they do not realize that they are being propagandized.— Elmer Davis, chief of the Office of War Information during WWII, as quoted in Hollywood Goes to War

    http://www.ohio66.com/newspaper/dallas/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmer_Davis

    • Replies: @songbird
    @S

    Route 66 was my aunt's favorite show. Never really watched it much, but I vaguely remember one episode where they visited the Bunker Hill Monument. It seems like they did a lot of location shots, in sharp contrast to a lot of other shows, where it was obvious they were confined to one area. For example, the show Knight Rider, where the character was supposed to be roaming across country, but it was obviously all near LA.

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    I'm sure you probably know this, but at the start of the show The Greatest American Hero, the protagonist had the same surname as Reagan's attempted assassin. But I don't know whether there were any other connections.

    Replies: @S, @S, @Mr. Hack

  731. How did this cringe rightoid bugman even get popular to begin with?

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Thulean Friend

    Because people do not read. Amongst the few people who do read, few read with any acumen.

    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel. The most important thing in his life: he has been afraid for forty years he is going to get blown to smithereens by nuclear war. Bigger than anything else by 50000 X.

    Now I am not saying that is nothing to be afraid of but what in the hell can one person do about it? What is the point of making yourself a quivering thimble of goo about it?

    Anybody can see it for their self. Himself. Herself. Itself. What is the New York Times style sheet pronoun? : )

    https://www.amazon.com/Maps-Meaning-Architecture-Jordan-Peterson/dp/0415922224

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    , @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Used to joke, that at any given moment, there's probably several poor souls tied up by robbers, in their own homes, with videos of Jordan Peterson playing infinitely on autoplay, due to the youtube algorithms that promote him to rightoids.

    If three Jordan Peterson videos play in a row, IMO, they should send the cops out to your house to do a wellness check.

  732. @songbird
    @Thulean Friend

    Many are bulls on Turkey. Not because it is doing great, but since the Balkans has low TFR and much of the ME is unstable. Plus, they control the water.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    Many are bulls on Turkey.

    What about bulls in Turkey?

    [MORE]

    • LOL: songbird
  733. @Thulean Friend
    How did this cringe rightoid bugman even get popular to begin with?

    https://twitter.com/thebadstats/status/1522081691518398465

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    Because people do not read. Amongst the few people who do read, few read with any acumen.

    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel. The most important thing in his life: he has been afraid for forty years he is going to get blown to smithereens by nuclear war. Bigger than anything else by 50000 X.

    Now I am not saying that is nothing to be afraid of but what in the hell can one person do about it? What is the point of making yourself a quivering thimble of goo about it?

    Anybody can see it for their self. Himself. Herself. Itself. What is the New York Times style sheet pronoun? : )

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Because people do not read.

     

    The art of not reading is a very important one. It consists in not taking an interest in whatever may be engaging the attention of the general public at any particular time. When some political or ecclesiastical pamphlet, or novel, or poem is making a great commotion, you should remember that he who writes for fools always finds a large public. A precondition for reading good books is not reading bad ones: for life is short.

    Schopenhauer has lots of good quotes about the excessiveness of reading too much and how many people substitute reading for thinking, fooling themselves they are doing much else other than letting others think for themselves.


    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel.
     
    I commend you and your masochism, so that you can suffer in our place. Amen.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  734. Sean says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Sorry, I don't buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war's supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those "superficial changes" will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia's atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries "ignoring" other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not "ignoring" and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine's behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let's all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can't be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Sean, @PhysicistDave, @awry

    Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted

    Did they? We don’t know if they would have done it anyway even if knowing how difficult and damaging the the international position of Russia it was going to be. I would point out that there were concerns that it would involve attacking a de facto member of Nato, which is not something that Russia could take so lightly. Anyway, it was months and tens of thousands of dead Russian soldiers ago and all indications are that Russia is not backing down in the face of a unbeatable Ukrainian war machine that the West has constructed. They Russians are totally committed to getting some kind of victory, however pyrrhic, and they do not seem to be capable of doing so already. They are about to face advanced counter battery artillery targeting that outranges their own, which means they will have no advantage at all.

    The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously

    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.

    If you can’t be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    That is the viewpoint of ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’. However there is another way

    Personally , I think Professor Farkas is talking nonsense when she suggests, as do you (“If Russia uses a tactical nuk … the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions” )that conventional forces (presumably F35s and Stealth bombers) would be used on Russian forces in Ukraine in the aftermath of a battlefield thermonuclear weapon use by Russia on West Ukraine, The US air force would clobber the Russians and why would they not use another nuke– an anti aircraft one for maybe. Russians are said to be fatalistic a la ‘ to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them’.
    ‘So let’s all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly’

    Siegfried
    My sword once shattered a spear:
    the endless rope of fate’s decrees,
    if in its strands a curse hath been spun,
    Nothung shall cut it asunder!
    A dragon once warned me to flee the curse,
    but yet fear he brought not to me.
    (He contemplates the ring.)
    The world’s wealth hath a ring on me bestowed:
    for the grace of love had it been yours,
    and by your grace yet were it gained.
    But when limbs ye threaten and life,
    e’en tho’ a finger outweigh its worth,
    from me ye wrest not the ring.
    My limbs and my life, see:
    (He lifts a clod of earth from the ground, holds
    it over his head, and with the last words throws
    it behind him.)
    so freely I fling away!

    As with Siegfried when the Rhine maidens try to frighten him out of the Ring, for a certain type of person, the idea of being deterred is so abhorrent that warnings cab can seen as a dare After two decades Putin became blasé and insouciant, mow he begins the commonly seen self destructive phase of highly ambitious men’s last years when they bring down what they had spent building up.
    Who is going to stop Putin from choosing death;? the Russian army generals who are being located by US intel for the ongoing Ukrainian assassination campaign against them? Chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff Mark Milley not having any cozy chats with his counterpart, because he is aready suspect. Putin must wonder why is Valery Gerasimov still alive. Putin is a counter intel specialist by training, and so I am sure he wonders whether the CIA divulging the whereabouts of those thought to be hard line generals in order to make sure that only the ‘slabak’s are left? In classic American plausible deniability style the intelligence is likely a quarter of an hour out of date , or maybe the stike was intended to just miss Gerasimov and give him some extra credibility.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Sean


    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.
     
    The infrastructure damage to Ukraine is now estimated to be around $60 billion. Nobody knows what it will be once this whole awful mess has ended. Its been suggested that all of Russia's funds (private and government) that have been confiscated or frozen outside of Russia will be used to fund any rebuilding projects?...

    You seem to have deep well thought out ideas regarding this war. What do you think would happen if Russia were to drop one (or two?) nuclear bombs within Ukraine as a final parting goodbye shot? How would the West (NATO etc) react? Remember, Putler has now shown the world that all is possible.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

  735. @S
    @S

    I'd forgotten to mention a couple of things in the previous post:

    In the Love is a Skinny Kid episode when Miriam does the Guy Fawkes like burning in effigy thing a character is heard saying 'I don't like you Jack!' to someone not named Jack.

    In I'm Here to Kill a King the assassin tells the Oswald like character it was as if 'someone pulled the strings' behind the scenes to arrange he get his new job there along the motorcade route, and that was just 'too bad' for him, as he (the Oswald type character) was gonna have to die.

    I'm Here to Kill a King was filmed in October, '63, in real time as Oswald was being hired on at the Texas School Book Depository.

    http://www.ohio66.com/newspaper/dallas/Bob-Maharis-Carousel-Club.jpg

    'ROUTE 66'ers took in the show at Carousel. From left it's unit mgr. Bob Maharis, Carousel's Najada and Route 66 stuntman Fred Stromsoe.' Dallas Times Herald — December 5, 1961


    The easiest way to inject a propaganda idea into most people’s minds is to let it go through the medium of an entertainment picture when they do not realize that they are being propagandized.— Elmer Davis, chief of the Office of War Information during WWII, as quoted in Hollywood Goes to War
     
    http://www.ohio66.com/newspaper/dallas/

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmer_Davis

    Replies: @songbird

    Route 66 was my aunt’s favorite show. Never really watched it much, but I vaguely remember one episode where they visited the Bunker Hill Monument. It seems like they did a lot of location shots, in sharp contrast to a lot of other shows, where it was obvious they were confined to one area. For example, the show Knight Rider, where the character was supposed to be roaming across country, but it was obviously all near LA.

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    I’m sure you probably know this, but at the start of the show The Greatest American Hero, the protagonist had the same surname as Reagan’s attempted assassin. But I don’t know whether there were any other connections.

    • Replies: @S
    @songbird

    Yes, Route 66 was quite popular, and they did a lot of traveling about the country doing 'on site' shooting. I've seen every episode! :-) 'Spooky' is a good term as I think there may be more of an occult aspect to it than many might feel comfortable with.

    No, I had not heard of the Hinkley connection to the series you'd mentioned. Sounds interesting.

    , @S
    @songbird


    The connections seem a bit spooky.
     
    OT somewhat, but if you want 'a bit spooky', check out the vid below I ran across a few days ago. The video is from 1989 Antwerp, Belgium television, the music is from 2020. According to the lyrics, it's about a struggle between light and dark. [Mind you, I'm not into anything too dark, or, anything, as I don't think it's healthy.]

    The beat, dancing, and lighting is almost mesmerizing. The women doing the dancing aren't too bad either! :-)

    https://youtu.be/QwQOuSPua74
    , @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show "77 Sunset Strip" shot during the same period? I remember watching them (and reruns) but can't say that I actually remember any specific episodes. That was a long time ago. I do remember that I enjoyed watching both shows...

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Edd_Byrnes_Kookie_Sue_Randall_77_Sunset_Strip_1964.JPG

    Replies: @songbird

  736. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Thulean Friend


    East Asia will do fine, don’t get me wrong. I laugh at the Gordon Chang types. But I am also not a Sinotriumphalist like Karlin, hence our bet. Karlin of course understood rather quickly that he made a cardinal error in going into a bet with me, but since he’s too proud to admit he made a major mistake, he was trying to weasel himself out while simultaneously not publicly admitting he got China badly wrong.
     
    Merely affirming something over and over again does not make it true.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

    My definition of a Sinotriumph scenario is 175% or higher of US GDP in 2040.

    In 2021 it was \$17.5 trillion to \$23 trillion (78%). The US is headed for a recession. It’s possible 100% of US GDP could be reached in 2025.

  737. @216
    @Yellowface Anon


    You fail to refute my general point which is how Bengal and British India in general fell from large proto-industrializing regions to subsistence-level economies, with the deliberate negligence of the EIC.

     

    That's just revisionism by Hindu nationalists. They refuse to show gratitude to Britain for removing the Mughals, because of their tremendous anti-white racism and anti-Christianity.

    When independent, they build a nuclear triad before giving the people indoor plumbing.

    I will never accept moral blackmail from the Third World.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Vishnugupta

    The biggest indigenous power on the subcontinent at the dawn of British rule was the Maratha Empire who in the preceeding 70 years had systematically reduced the Mughal Empire to glorified kings of Delhi.

    I find alternate history to be a fool’s pastime but the absence of British rule would likely have led to a unified subcontinent(Marathas at their greatest held sway over roughly 70% of South Asia) and a Hindu reconquista of the subcontinent.

    So no gratitude is warranted.At all.

    And its great that we like the Chinese built nuclear weapons before the majority of our people got indoor plumbing.

    Its the only proven way to safeguard one’s independence something which 100-200 years of West European rule will make you value immensely.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Vishnugupta

    The Marathas were heavily supported by the French as their vehicle to control India.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

  738. @Thulean Friend
    How did this cringe rightoid bugman even get popular to begin with?

    https://twitter.com/thebadstats/status/1522081691518398465

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @songbird

    Used to joke, that at any given moment, there’s probably several poor souls tied up by robbers, in their own homes, with videos of Jordan Peterson playing infinitely on autoplay, due to the youtube algorithms that promote him to rightoids.

    If three Jordan Peterson videos play in a row, IMO, they should send the cops out to your house to do a wellness check.

    • LOL: Thulean Friend
  739. awry says:
    @A123
    @Wokechoke


    I expect an anti ship missile to originate from some proxy and sink a US ship soon enough. Iran, Cuba wherever. I do not expect the Russians will let the sinking of the Moskva go.
     
    You suggestion seems unlikely.

    There is still no evidence supporting the idea that the Moskva was sunk by undersized Neptune warheads. Even with perfect guidance, they are too small to punch through capital ship hull armor. That leaves some sort of above hull line strike. A picture from the front has leaked and it looks like all of the launch tubes are intact. What could the Neptunes have possibly hit?

    The original Russian announcement blamed a non-combat issue. The pictures we have seen are consistent with an internal fire caused by 'operator error'. The soot at each vent largely confirms that it burned for a long time throughout much of the ship.

    While the idea of losing a ship to 'operator error' is bad, losing it to 'sabotage' while fully crewed is worse. If it was 'sabotage' that information will be kept secret to protect counterintelligence sources and methods.

    As long as the official (and most likely true) explanation of 'operator error' remains in place that eliminates any open justification for Russian retaliation. This is good news as it would cause the European intelligence agencies, notably Poland's, to consider plausible false flags. Sinking an old, empty freighter with no identifiable crew on board is within Poland's black budget.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @awry

    Looks like Russia lost another ship now. One of their most advanced ships, the Admiral Makarov.
    Ukraine regularly attacks oil storages and plants on DNR and Russian territory (with missiles, helicopters or drones) with impunity. Apparently they manage to sabotage other ones deep in Russian territory too. Russia is more and more resembling some Arab or African semi-failed state. Apparent total incompetence as usual.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @A123
    @awry


    Looks like Russia lost another ship now. One of their most advanced ships, the Admiral Makarov.
     
    Terms like New or Advanced do not necessarily mean Successful. Look at the U.S problems with the Advanced Littoral Combat Ship.

    The term Advanced is somewhat questionable in this case. The Makarov hull is a 1990's style Indian Talwar class frigate. Russia was trying to build some relatively inexpensive vessels as an interim solution.

    https://defenceforumindia.com/media/talwar-class-frigate-launch-brahmos-missile.113/

    There has been conjecture for years that the very high nose of the Talwar-class is a "really bad idea" for heavy combat. A missile strike in the nose area while the ship is underway could pull the ship apart as the expansive nose area generates lift away from the keel. It looks like the high nose helps protect deck personnel and equipment. Presumably a ship engineer or Indian Navy officer could explain additional offsetting advantages behind the choice.

    PEACE 😇
  740. @LondonBob
    @songbird

    Jack Ruby did give the game away.

    Replies: @songbird

    If a guy shot Barack in his first term, plenty of people would have been gunning for him.

  741. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted
     
    Did they? We don't know if they would have done it anyway even if knowing how difficult and damaging the the international position of Russia it was going to be. I would point out that there were concerns that it would involve attacking a de facto member of Nato, which is not something that Russia could take so lightly. Anyway, it was months and tens of thousands of dead Russian soldiers ago and all indications are that Russia is not backing down in the face of a unbeatable Ukrainian war machine that the West has constructed. They Russians are totally committed to getting some kind of victory, however pyrrhic, and they do not seem to be capable of doing so already. They are about to face advanced counter battery artillery targeting that outranges their own, which means they will have no advantage at all.

    The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously
     
    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.

    If you can’t be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.
     
    That is the viewpoint of 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune'. However there is another way
    https://youtu.be/yKxTu0SQu6Y?t=404

    Personally , I think Professor Farkas is talking nonsense when she suggests, as do you ("If Russia uses a tactical nuk ... the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions" )that conventional forces (presumably F35s and Stealth bombers) would be used on Russian forces in Ukraine in the aftermath of a battlefield thermonuclear weapon use by Russia on West Ukraine, The US air force would clobber the Russians and why would they not use another nuke-- an anti aircraft one for maybe. Russians are said to be fatalistic a la ' to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them'.
    'So let’s all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly'

    Siegfried
    My sword once shattered a spear:
    the endless rope of fate’s decrees,
    if in its strands a curse hath been spun,
    Nothung shall cut it asunder!
    A dragon once warned me to flee the curse,
    but yet fear he brought not to me.
    (He contemplates the ring.)
    The world’s wealth hath a ring on me bestowed:
    for the grace of love had it been yours,
    and by your grace yet were it gained.
    But when limbs ye threaten and life,
    e’en tho’ a finger outweigh its worth,
    from me ye wrest not the ring.
    My limbs and my life, see:
    (He lifts a clod of earth from the ground, holds
    it over his head, and with the last words throws
    it behind him.)
    so freely I fling away!
     
    As with Siegfried when the Rhine maidens try to frighten him out of the Ring, for a certain type of person, the idea of being deterred is so abhorrent that warnings cab can seen as a dare After two decades Putin became blasé and insouciant, mow he begins the commonly seen self destructive phase of highly ambitious men's last years when they bring down what they had spent building up.
    Who is going to stop Putin from choosing death;? the Russian army generals who are being located by US intel for the ongoing Ukrainian assassination campaign against them? Chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff Mark Milley not having any cozy chats with his counterpart, because he is aready suspect. Putin must wonder why is Valery Gerasimov still alive. Putin is a counter intel specialist by training, and so I am sure he wonders whether the CIA divulging the whereabouts of those thought to be hard line generals in order to make sure that only the 'slabak's are left? In classic American plausible deniability style the intelligence is likely a quarter of an hour out of date , or maybe the stike was intended to just miss Gerasimov and give him some extra credibility.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.

    The infrastructure damage to Ukraine is now estimated to be around \$60 billion. Nobody knows what it will be once this whole awful mess has ended. Its been suggested that all of Russia’s funds (private and government) that have been confiscated or frozen outside of Russia will be used to fund any rebuilding projects?…

    You seem to have deep well thought out ideas regarding this war. What do you think would happen if Russia were to drop one (or two?) nuclear bombs within Ukraine as a final parting goodbye shot? How would the West (NATO etc) react? Remember, Putler has now shown the world that all is possible.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Mr. Hack

    If we get to that point it will be because Russian leaders have decided that their country is no match in a war for the American sockpuppet armed forces of Ukraine. Therefore I would expect that Russia would only use a battlefield thermonuclear weapon in Western Ukraine in order decisively terminate the conventional war. I think the Europeans would not be keen to have American conventional attacks on Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, but the people running American policy seem to be unwilling to the international order principle be compromised and so the unjustified invasion cannot stand, although the Invasion of Iraq was a precedent. Blinken might lose credibility if Russia suddenly used a little nuke, but Biden may well want to appear hawkish and strong for political reasons, so it might happen very differently with each progressively upping the ante.

    I think conventional attacks in Ukraine in the aftermath of a Russian nuke use it would be responded to by Russia with another tactical big bang nuke on the territory or in the sky of Ukraine. If the Russian nuclear repositories are hit conventionally (as some have suggested Nato would react to Russia nuking Ukraine although I think it unlikely), then Russia would launch a tactical nuke at a Nato bases in Europe, probably one in Poland or Germany. That would be a single specimen 'check it or respect it' strike. However, all this is speculation because nuclear weapons are not things that can be combined with conventional war. For Putin that will be the attraction

    Of course the well worked out theory for all this is non existent because the situation of Russian nuclear first use against a US proxy not in Nato but fighting a war against Russia has never been contemplated . It was always thought that Russians would have no need to go tactical nuclear because it would be able to win conventionally. especially in its own 'near abroad' Such is not the case but the superannuated strategists continue to talk as if Russia is outgunning and out numbering Ukraine in Donbass and so Russia is about to begin winning. Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle. Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept. To use the additional octave of human conflict would be a step into the unknown and not only for Russia, but it might manage to extricate itself.

    Replies: @LatW

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mr. Hack

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia. Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    This is the 21st Century - the age of instant global video and communication. The bomb would be broadcast into the homes of billions and there would be no "other side." Just imagine trying to "other side" it. "Oh, but AZOV." Or "look a transgender admiral." Or "yes, but there were a few words rumoured to have happened behind closed doors that said NATO wouldn't expand 3 decades ago!"

    These excuses are beyond pathetic already, but they would be blown away in the positive blast and eviscerated by the negative one. People who made them would be liable to get lynched. Humans do not deal with fear easily.

    And this fear, true tangible corrupting horror, that would then grip those billions would be like the Great Flood, but would take a lot longer to recede. Many years or decades even.

    And people hate those who give them cause to be afraid, nevermind legitimately terrified. Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining. Even by Russians. No bullsh*t Ron Unz-style blatant lie that actually Neocons did it would pass. He'd simply be sent to jail, if he survived the paddy wagon on the way there. This would not be a normal event. People would act like they would never imagine themselves acting and then they would do what people always do when they act like that, blame the source of the fear and make it wholly responsible even for their own actions. It would be Russia Delenda Est, globally, until Russia Delenda'd.

    And what would Russians say to themselves: "we broke the seal of planetary human survival because we were losing a war in risible fashion over absurdly concocted justifications to scab a tiny parcel of land when we have more land than any other state in the world."

    Seriously, wtf!

    It would be sick and deranged and so many Russians would agree that the population would enter a suicidal depression from which they quite possibly would never recover. And very few would feel sorry for them. I would, but I'd have to stay silent for fear of just about anybody screaming at me for trying to defend the people who "wanted/tryed to to kill everyone in the world."

    The simple fact is that no one wants weapons, with the same name as those that can destroy the planet, thrown about.

    Nevermind, that it would gain them nothing militarily and possibly lead to a conventional response that crushes them.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated. There would be an overheleming demand for that. And rightly so. The state that breaks the seal of planetary human survival that we placed on nuclear aggression must be crushed for that seal to be fixed back in place.

    The species' survival would depend on it.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation. They must be crushed without mercy, to save humanity, and the collateral damage in their citizens' lives can be as high as it needs to be, no matter how tragic.

    So no, I don't think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing. This war is a total pointless joke for them. While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Sean

  742. It would appear another Russian capital ship has been sunk.

    I wonder what the Russians are thinking placing their ships within the range of Ukrainian anti ship missiles when they know NATO is relaying Ukraine targeting data.

    Russian land attack cruise missiles outrange Ukraine’s anti ship cruise missiles by hundreds of kilometers so they could do the same job a few hundred kilometers more off shore.

    Also as far as one can tell these are subsonic non stealth upgraded versions of the Uran missile.They aren’t that difficult to intercept and its not like Ukraine is conducting a saturation attack with dozens of these launched with the intent of overwhelming the Ruusian fleet’s air defense capabilities.

  743. In a blow to AP’s theory of good Spanish vs. evil English colonization, a new paper says that there is no evidence for the introduction of maize into Northern latitudes before 900 AD.

    • Replies: @AP
    @songbird

    And?

    Replies: @songbird

  744. I’d like to hear a body language expert analyze Nina Jankowicz.

  745. S says:

    They are meticulously copying everything they can from WWII. For good luck? There’s no question this new world war in the works has long been planned. Here is an article from 2018 announcing the adoption of new US Army uniforms modeled upon those of WWII to come on line in the Summer of 2020.

    U.S. Army to roll out new Army Greens uniform

    The “Army Greens” service uniform, which tributes the iconic World War II-era uniforms of the “Greatest Generation,” is set to replace the Army Blues as the new service uniform. The phase in begins no earlier than the summer of 2020 with a mandatory wear date of sometime in 2028.

    WASHINGTON — The United States Army announced today that it is adopting an iconic uniform — the “Army Greens” — as its new service uniform. This is the uniform worn by America’s “Greatest Generation” in World War II.

    The current Army Blues Uniform will return to being a formal dress uniform, while the Army Greens will become the everyday business-wear uniform for all Soldiers. The Army Combat Uniform — also known as the Operational Camouflage Pattern (OCP) — will remain the Army’s duty/field uniform.

    “This uniform will help attract quality applicants to the service, which could have a very positive impact on Army recruiting,” said Maj. Gen. Randy Taylor, APG senior commander and Commanding General, U.S. Army Communications-Electronics Command. “Inspiring the next generation to serve is critical in an era when less than 4 percent of American youth are qualified and have the propensity to join the military.

    “We believe this uniform – and its powerful identification with the “Greatest Generation” of World War II – will inspire Soldiers and enhance esprit de corps.”

    The uniform will be cost-neutral for enlisted Soldiers, who will be able to purchase them with their annual clothing allowance. Female Soldiers will have the option to wear versions with a skirt or pants, and will also have additional shoe options.

    The Army Greens will be fielded to Soldiers reporting to their first units as early as the summer of 2020. The mandatory wear date for all Soldiers will be 2028.

    The new uniform will come at no additional cost to the American taxpayer. It will be made in the USA.

    The way ahead

    The Army will begin issuing the Greens uniform to new Soldiers no earlier than summer of 2020. The mandatory wear date for all Soldiers is 2028.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Is this new uniform historically accurate?

    This uniform is one of the most admired and recognizable uniforms in the Army’s history. The reintroduction of this uniform is meant to inspire trust and confidence in our Soldiers’ professionalism and readiness.

    https://apgnews.com/community-news/u-s-army-to-roll-out-new-army-greens-uniform/

  746. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    China signed a treaty to renounce the claims I remember

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    Seems like all treaties and international laws are meaningless today, thanks to Russia’s brazen and wild actions. Besides Russia, who would criticize China for any such moves? China’s claims to Outer Manchuria including the Amur oblast that were taken from them in the 1850’s, can’t be seriously considered Russian territory for eternity? Since Russia is trying to change the map of the world today, perhaps China should get in on the act too. BTW, I’ve heard that China is refusing to provide parts for many of Russia’s damaged weaponry and calls for other needed items too.

  747. There is an Indian doctor trying to make that horrible movie where Schwarzenegger gets pregnant into a reality:
    https://reduxx.info/indian-surgeon-planning-womb-implant-into-trans-identified-male/

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Here's another "reality" that Russia doesn't want to believe:

    https://youtu.be/UdZ0KNWsV74

    Replies: @songbird

  748. @songbird
    There is an Indian doctor trying to make that horrible movie where Schwarzenegger gets pregnant into a reality:
    https://reduxx.info/indian-surgeon-planning-womb-implant-into-trans-identified-male/

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Here’s another “reality” that Russia doesn’t want to believe:

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack

    Curious, I wonder if that means they didn't institute any operational changes.

    Personally, it is difficult for me to understand the purpose of a Black Sea fleet, in modern times. Could understand, if one controlled all the coastline and the Bosporus.

  749. Sean says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @Sean


    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.
     
    The infrastructure damage to Ukraine is now estimated to be around $60 billion. Nobody knows what it will be once this whole awful mess has ended. Its been suggested that all of Russia's funds (private and government) that have been confiscated or frozen outside of Russia will be used to fund any rebuilding projects?...

    You seem to have deep well thought out ideas regarding this war. What do you think would happen if Russia were to drop one (or two?) nuclear bombs within Ukraine as a final parting goodbye shot? How would the West (NATO etc) react? Remember, Putler has now shown the world that all is possible.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

    If we get to that point it will be because Russian leaders have decided that their country is no match in a war for the American sockpuppet armed forces of Ukraine. Therefore I would expect that Russia would only use a battlefield thermonuclear weapon in Western Ukraine in order decisively terminate the conventional war. I think the Europeans would not be keen to have American conventional attacks on Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, but the people running American policy seem to be unwilling to the international order principle be compromised and so the unjustified invasion cannot stand, although the Invasion of Iraq was a precedent. Blinken might lose credibility if Russia suddenly used a little nuke, but Biden may well want to appear hawkish and strong for political reasons, so it might happen very differently with each progressively upping the ante.

    I think conventional attacks in Ukraine in the aftermath of a Russian nuke use it would be responded to by Russia with another tactical big bang nuke on the territory or in the sky of Ukraine. If the Russian nuclear repositories are hit conventionally (as some have suggested Nato would react to Russia nuking Ukraine although I think it unlikely), then Russia would launch a tactical nuke at a Nato bases in Europe, probably one in Poland or Germany. That would be a single specimen ‘check it or respect it’ strike. However, all this is speculation because nuclear weapons are not things that can be combined with conventional war. For Putin that will be the attraction

    Of course the well worked out theory for all this is non existent because the situation of Russian nuclear first use against a US proxy not in Nato but fighting a war against Russia has never been contemplated . It was always thought that Russians would have no need to go tactical nuclear because it would be able to win conventionally. especially in its own ‘near abroad’ Such is not the case but the superannuated strategists continue to talk as if Russia is outgunning and out numbering Ukraine in Donbass and so Russia is about to begin winning. Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle. Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept. To use the additional octave of human conflict would be a step into the unknown and not only for Russia, but it might manage to extricate itself.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Sean


    Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle.
     
    Ukraine never accepted the loss of its territory, no self-respecting nation would, they were set to try to win it back, just didn't have the means for it.

    Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept.
     
    What is exacerbating the situation is that Russia does not consider Crimea and Donbass "close to home", but "home itself". This includes the Kerch bridge which Ukraine would be forced to hit to stop the genocide of its people once it has the means. It's possible that, irrationally, Russia considers all of Novorossya as "home".

    So their military doctrine that includes first use of nuclear actually covers part of Ukraine, unfortunately. The international community does not agree with this, but it doesn't change the fact that this is how Russia sees it in its own perception (which matters more right now). Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it's moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there). So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation.

    Replies: @Sean

  750. S says:
    @songbird
    @S

    Route 66 was my aunt's favorite show. Never really watched it much, but I vaguely remember one episode where they visited the Bunker Hill Monument. It seems like they did a lot of location shots, in sharp contrast to a lot of other shows, where it was obvious they were confined to one area. For example, the show Knight Rider, where the character was supposed to be roaming across country, but it was obviously all near LA.

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    I'm sure you probably know this, but at the start of the show The Greatest American Hero, the protagonist had the same surname as Reagan's attempted assassin. But I don't know whether there were any other connections.

    Replies: @S, @S, @Mr. Hack

    Yes, Route 66 was quite popular, and they did a lot of traveling about the country doing ‘on site’ shooting. I’ve seen every episode! 🙂 ‘Spooky’ is a good term as I think there may be more of an occult aspect to it than many might feel comfortable with.

    No, I had not heard of the Hinkley connection to the series you’d mentioned. Sounds interesting.

  751. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Thulean Friend

    Because people do not read. Amongst the few people who do read, few read with any acumen.

    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel. The most important thing in his life: he has been afraid for forty years he is going to get blown to smithereens by nuclear war. Bigger than anything else by 50000 X.

    Now I am not saying that is nothing to be afraid of but what in the hell can one person do about it? What is the point of making yourself a quivering thimble of goo about it?

    Anybody can see it for their self. Himself. Herself. Itself. What is the New York Times style sheet pronoun? : )

    https://www.amazon.com/Maps-Meaning-Architecture-Jordan-Peterson/dp/0415922224

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    Because people do not read.

    The art of not reading is a very important one. It consists in not taking an interest in whatever may be engaging the attention of the general public at any particular time. When some political or ecclesiastical pamphlet, or novel, or poem is making a great commotion, you should remember that he who writes for fools always finds a large public. A precondition for reading good books is not reading bad ones: for life is short.

    Schopenhauer has lots of good quotes about the excessiveness of reading too much and how many people substitute reading for thinking, fooling themselves they are doing much else other than letting others think for themselves.

    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel.

    I commend you and your masochism, so that you can suffer in our place. Amen.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Thulean Friend

    Schopenhauer's parents were rich enough that he never had to work. Only such a man would have to worry about wasting too much of his time reading books. Those of us in the normal contingent have other things to worry about!

    After the first couple of chapters of Peterson I skimmed plenty. If there was something utterly brilliant mixed in that part I missed it shucks darn it.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  752. @songbird
    In a blow to AP's theory of good Spanish vs. evil English colonization, a new paper says that there is no evidence for the introduction of maize into Northern latitudes before 900 AD.
    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/new-dates-and-carbon-isotope-assays-of-purported-middle-woodland-maize-from-the-icehouse-bottom-and-edwin-harness-sites/94E624BB1561B51F197AFF2E27CDF071

    Replies: @AP

    And?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP

    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone, and make the same argument. Or to some place like Peru.

    In each case, ignoring the fact that it didn't have the same facility of ingress for settlers. That the local Amerinds in Peru have adaptions for living at high altitude. That the woods of Quebec was a rough place to bring women. That the cold favored the propagation of hunter gatherer genes.

    And instead construct a marxist argument meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history, and which has no other purpose, at all.

    Replies: @AP

  753. @Mr. Hack
    @Sean


    They will be less keen than that to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Russia is never going to be reconciled to Ukraine if defeated by it.
     
    The infrastructure damage to Ukraine is now estimated to be around $60 billion. Nobody knows what it will be once this whole awful mess has ended. Its been suggested that all of Russia's funds (private and government) that have been confiscated or frozen outside of Russia will be used to fund any rebuilding projects?...

    You seem to have deep well thought out ideas regarding this war. What do you think would happen if Russia were to drop one (or two?) nuclear bombs within Ukraine as a final parting goodbye shot? How would the West (NATO etc) react? Remember, Putler has now shown the world that all is possible.

    Replies: @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia. Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    This is the 21st Century – the age of instant global video and communication. The bomb would be broadcast into the homes of billions and there would be no “other side.” Just imagine trying to “other side” it. “Oh, but AZOV.” Or “look a transgender admiral.” Or “yes, but there were a few words rumoured to have happened behind closed doors that said NATO wouldn’t expand 3 decades ago!”

    These excuses are beyond pathetic already, but they would be blown away in the positive blast and eviscerated by the negative one. People who made them would be liable to get lynched. Humans do not deal with fear easily.

    And this fear, true tangible corrupting horror, that would then grip those billions would be like the Great Flood, but would take a lot longer to recede. Many years or decades even.

    And people hate those who give them cause to be afraid, nevermind legitimately terrified. Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining. Even by Russians. No bullsh*t Ron Unz-style blatant lie that actually Neocons did it would pass. He’d simply be sent to jail, if he survived the paddy wagon on the way there. This would not be a normal event. People would act like they would never imagine themselves acting and then they would do what people always do when they act like that, blame the source of the fear and make it wholly responsible even for their own actions. It would be Russia Delenda Est, globally, until Russia Delenda’d.

    And what would Russians say to themselves: “we broke the seal of planetary human survival because we were losing a war in risible fashion over absurdly concocted justifications to scab a tiny parcel of land when we have more land than any other state in the world.”

    Seriously, wtf!

    It would be sick and deranged and so many Russians would agree that the population would enter a suicidal depression from which they quite possibly would never recover. And very few would feel sorry for them. I would, but I’d have to stay silent for fear of just about anybody screaming at me for trying to defend the people who “wanted/tryed to to kill everyone in the world.”

    The simple fact is that no one wants weapons, with the same name as those that can destroy the planet, thrown about.

    Nevermind, that it would gain them nothing militarily and possibly lead to a conventional response that crushes them.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated. There would be an overheleming demand for that. And rightly so. The state that breaks the seal of planetary human survival that we placed on nuclear aggression must be crushed for that seal to be fixed back in place.

    The species’ survival would depend on it.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation. They must be crushed without mercy, to save humanity, and the collateral damage in their citizens’ lives can be as high as it needs to be, no matter how tragic.

    So no, I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing. This war is a total pointless joke for them. While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I always appreciate reading your comments, this one no less than your others. Without trying to dox you, I'm curious about your educational/professional background. I'm not asking you to reveal anything that I've not revealed here so far, but I do respect your rights to privacy. At the very least, you must be a vociferous reader (and an interesting thinker!).

    , @Beckow
    @Triteleia Laxa

    More your write, more incoherent you get. Is it the fear of losing? To rational observers so far Russia is winning. Your hysterical focus on minutia and wishful thinking changes nothing. Same with the ever more sad and infantile Mr. Hack.


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    That is a very stupid statement. It would be the end of a lot more: Ukraine, Europe, US, etc...Do you think if they drop one, they wouldn't drop more? Based on what? But I agree that as of now, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. If you start marching on Moscow they may.

    Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining.
     
    Not really possible, the current Western hatred is at level that would be hard to elevate. For example, your hatred of Russia would be reaffirmed, but effectively be about the same.

    “other side”
     
    There is already no "other side" presented in the West. So, again, how would it be different?

    I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    They won't use nukes and they won't withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death. Russia can't do it anymore than France would allow 4 million Walloons to be expelled or killed, or the Irish Republic with the Catholic Irish in Ulster. It is not a choice, it is something any nation has to do - to protect its own. If West was willing to compromise like having an autonomy and neutrality we would not be where we are today.

    Circa regna tonat. These are dangerous times and your unhinged rhetoric doesn't help. Try not to skip your pills, it may calm you down.

    Replies: @AP, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack

    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb
     
    If people thought they would, they wouldn't have to.

    That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    They are getting close to the end--whatever they do.

    Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.
     
    But they thought the status quo was intolerable.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.
     
    America has repeatedly threatened China with battlefield nuclear weapons if it invaded Taiwan although Taiwan is not an independent sovereign state. America invaded Iraq for anfextremely tenuous justification.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated.
     
    What with?

    The species’ survival would depend on it
     
    Russia's nuclear arsenals is essentially equivalent to America's so if Russia or Russian forces in Ukraine get obliterated something pretty unpleasant is going to happen to America or American troops in Europe.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation.
     
    Why does Russia have the world's largest stock of tactical nuclear weapons if it thinks it would forced to surrender if it ever used one to avoid conventional defeat?

    So no, I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    If they are exposed as too scared to use a nuke, Russia would loose all international respect, and respect for themselves.

    While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation
     
    They would be killing for the very highest of reasons. Defending their community. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJIs72EoB4A

    And killing is men's work, they (Ukrainian and Russian alike) enjoy it.

    Replies: @Johnny Rico

  754. @Thulean Friend
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Because people do not read.

     

    The art of not reading is a very important one. It consists in not taking an interest in whatever may be engaging the attention of the general public at any particular time. When some political or ecclesiastical pamphlet, or novel, or poem is making a great commotion, you should remember that he who writes for fools always finds a large public. A precondition for reading good books is not reading bad ones: for life is short.

    Schopenhauer has lots of good quotes about the excessiveness of reading too much and how many people substitute reading for thinking, fooling themselves they are doing much else other than letting others think for themselves.


    When Peterson became a sensation I bought his book. His book is difficult to finish it is such inane drivel.
     
    I commend you and your masochism, so that you can suffer in our place. Amen.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Schopenhauer’s parents were rich enough that he never had to work. Only such a man would have to worry about wasting too much of his time reading books. Those of us in the normal contingent have other things to worry about!

    After the first couple of chapters of Peterson I skimmed plenty. If there was something utterly brilliant mixed in that part I missed it shucks darn it.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It's just a rather sad testament to societies' decay that a man that tells men to put their pants on and clean their room is hailed by many as some visionary.

    I'd certainly take him over the Lena Dunhams of the world any day, but in any sane society his message would be just common sense and taken for granted.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  755. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Here's another "reality" that Russia doesn't want to believe:

    https://youtu.be/UdZ0KNWsV74

    Replies: @songbird

    Curious, I wonder if that means they didn’t institute any operational changes.

    Personally, it is difficult for me to understand the purpose of a Black Sea fleet, in modern times. Could understand, if one controlled all the coastline and the Bosporus.

  756. @AP
    @songbird

    And?

    Replies: @songbird

    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone, and make the same argument. Or to some place like Peru.

    In each case, ignoring the fact that it didn’t have the same facility of ingress for settlers. That the local Amerinds in Peru have adaptions for living at high altitude. That the woods of Quebec was a rough place to bring women. That the cold favored the propagation of hunter gatherer genes.

    And instead construct a marxist argument meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history, and which has no other purpose, at all.

    • Replies: @AP
    @songbird


    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.
     
    Natives did better in places where they encountered Catholics and Orthodox than in places where they ran into the English.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone
     
    Well, every place has its particular geography and climate. So either it's a complete coincidence that the places settled by French, Spanish and Russians just happened to have geography and climate conducive to Native survival in comparison to those settled by the English, or the English Protestants behaved worse towards Natives than did all of those others. Your reference to Peruvian lung capacity, woods in Quebec (no woods in English lands?) etc. are just kind of desperate.

    And instead construct a marxist argument
     
    Marxist argument? LOL.

    Tell me again how a critique of nationalism, which destroyed the conservative order and ushered in more evil things that followed, is a leftist thing.

    meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history
     
    A bit sensitive about this, aren't you? I don't compromise when it comes to the truth, which is that the English were worse than anyone else in North America with respect to their treatment of the natives whose lands they conquered. The Spaniards were the best.

    Replies: @songbird

  757. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mr. Hack

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia. Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    This is the 21st Century - the age of instant global video and communication. The bomb would be broadcast into the homes of billions and there would be no "other side." Just imagine trying to "other side" it. "Oh, but AZOV." Or "look a transgender admiral." Or "yes, but there were a few words rumoured to have happened behind closed doors that said NATO wouldn't expand 3 decades ago!"

    These excuses are beyond pathetic already, but they would be blown away in the positive blast and eviscerated by the negative one. People who made them would be liable to get lynched. Humans do not deal with fear easily.

    And this fear, true tangible corrupting horror, that would then grip those billions would be like the Great Flood, but would take a lot longer to recede. Many years or decades even.

    And people hate those who give them cause to be afraid, nevermind legitimately terrified. Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining. Even by Russians. No bullsh*t Ron Unz-style blatant lie that actually Neocons did it would pass. He'd simply be sent to jail, if he survived the paddy wagon on the way there. This would not be a normal event. People would act like they would never imagine themselves acting and then they would do what people always do when they act like that, blame the source of the fear and make it wholly responsible even for their own actions. It would be Russia Delenda Est, globally, until Russia Delenda'd.

    And what would Russians say to themselves: "we broke the seal of planetary human survival because we were losing a war in risible fashion over absurdly concocted justifications to scab a tiny parcel of land when we have more land than any other state in the world."

    Seriously, wtf!

    It would be sick and deranged and so many Russians would agree that the population would enter a suicidal depression from which they quite possibly would never recover. And very few would feel sorry for them. I would, but I'd have to stay silent for fear of just about anybody screaming at me for trying to defend the people who "wanted/tryed to to kill everyone in the world."

    The simple fact is that no one wants weapons, with the same name as those that can destroy the planet, thrown about.

    Nevermind, that it would gain them nothing militarily and possibly lead to a conventional response that crushes them.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated. There would be an overheleming demand for that. And rightly so. The state that breaks the seal of planetary human survival that we placed on nuclear aggression must be crushed for that seal to be fixed back in place.

    The species' survival would depend on it.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation. They must be crushed without mercy, to save humanity, and the collateral damage in their citizens' lives can be as high as it needs to be, no matter how tragic.

    So no, I don't think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing. This war is a total pointless joke for them. While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Sean

    I always appreciate reading your comments, this one no less than your others. Without trying to dox you, I’m curious about your educational/professional background. I’m not asking you to reveal anything that I’ve not revealed here so far, but I do respect your rights to privacy. At the very least, you must be a vociferous reader (and an interesting thinker!).

  758. AP says:
    @songbird
    @AP

    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone, and make the same argument. Or to some place like Peru.

    In each case, ignoring the fact that it didn't have the same facility of ingress for settlers. That the local Amerinds in Peru have adaptions for living at high altitude. That the woods of Quebec was a rough place to bring women. That the cold favored the propagation of hunter gatherer genes.

    And instead construct a marxist argument meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history, and which has no other purpose, at all.

    Replies: @AP

    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.

    Natives did better in places where they encountered Catholics and Orthodox than in places where they ran into the English.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone

    Well, every place has its particular geography and climate. So either it’s a complete coincidence that the places settled by French, Spanish and Russians just happened to have geography and climate conducive to Native survival in comparison to those settled by the English, or the English Protestants behaved worse towards Natives than did all of those others. Your reference to Peruvian lung capacity, woods in Quebec (no woods in English lands?) etc. are just kind of desperate.

    And instead construct a marxist argument

    Marxist argument? LOL.

    Tell me again how a critique of nationalism, which destroyed the conservative order and ushered in more evil things that followed, is a leftist thing.

    meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history

    A bit sensitive about this, aren’t you? I don’t compromise when it comes to the truth, which is that the English were worse than anyone else in North America with respect to their treatment of the natives whose lands they conquered. The Spaniards were the best.

    • Agree: Yevardian
    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP


    and Orthodox
     
    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease. An extremely powerful factor, obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of history or biology. It has shown up at least a hundred times in US history alone, (building of the Panama Canal, invasion of Cuba in the Spanish-American war, the defense of Bataan, Teddy Roosevelt's journey in Brazil, etc, etc, ad nauseam.)

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn't deconstructive? Even Jared Diamond, whose father was born in Chișinău, Moldova, and, who claims that we are all Untermenschen compared to Papuans, accepts the differential impact of disease.

    Thought you were in the healthcare field. You are really going to disclaim any knowledge of heritable adaptations to disease? (Something even an administrator should know?) When sickle cell is a common prenatal test? And you are really going to assert that hypoxia doesn't make it dramatically more difficult to carry a pregnancy to term? That genetic adaptations to hypoxia (some of which have nothing to do with lung capacity) don't make healthy babies dramatically easier?

    Do you know that Tibetans got their altitude adaptations from the Denisovans, who inhabited the Tibetan plateau for hundreds of thousands of years before humans arrived? That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don't matter?

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog? And therefore your professed ignorance on matters known widely and commonly in that sphere is highly grating?

    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves that lived on the Tibetan Plateau?
    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/12/11/tibetan-mastiff/

    Charitably, I suspect that you must be someone with zero interest in HBD, and low interest in non-deconstructive history outside of Eastern Europe. Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine. And probably I am a little slow for only catching on now.

    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically ("WWI was caused by nationalism"), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    BTW, I really appreciate your interesting eccentricity. You bring your A-game, and made the rest of us look like posers. Maybe, I should up my game, and demand the same and opposite thing for Ireland.

    Replies: @Coconuts, @AP

  759. LatW says:
    @songbird
    @LatW


    And collective chants, all that.
     
    Wish I knew the clan battlecry of my patrilineal line. There's something awesome about battlefield traditions, but I don't think that it survives.

    In reference to your distaste for the bloody fighters, the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today (somewhat ironically by Protestants). Its origin is disputed. Some say the Normans invented it. Others that the O'Neills took it from an ancient ancestor, who, during a hard-fought battle grabbed the standard of his enemy with his bloody hand, leaving the mark of his blood upon it.

    I do like the battle scenes a lot, all the running & screaming.
     
    For me, it starts to devolve, when the two sides get closer. I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass. Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I've never seen that. I think pitched battles were all day affairs, from dawn to dusk, with a lot of people fleeing.

    Alexander Ludwig was that way already in the Hunting Games
     
    The Hunger Games? I think I saw one of them, but don't really remember it.

    It’s just that they took it a bit far, trying to make them appear totally crazy & bloodthirsty, with faces covered in blood and their piercing blue eyes looking all wild.
     
    The berserker is a popular trope, I think.

    And I think it is true to a certain extent. Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush, and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery.

    In real life, NW Euro men are much more mellow and rational.
     
    Some say that we weren't always that way.

    BTW, I wouldn't blame you for being a bit paranoid about it. Pretty easy to perceive some level of animus out of Hollywood. (And which I think is real) Though, I think the lack of Euro cultural production is mostly related to something that Hanania would probably say. I.e., it has something to do with civil rights laws, and the political and legal environment. I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.

    Replies: @LatW

    the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today

    It’s very bright red, it looks good with pristine white.

    [MORE]

    There’s a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too. It is maroon with a white stripe in the middle, and, according to legend, a wounded chieftain was laid on a white sheet, the white stripe in the middle is where his spine was, that remained white.

    I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass

    I agree, I’ve pondered this a lot, too. These current depictions are pure entertainment, kind of like sports. Not sure it could’ve been sustained in real life at such intensity for a long time (even longer than a half hour). They definitely just walked more, and some must’ve hidden in the forest.

    One of the realistic scenes I’ve seen is from a Lithuanian movie about Northern Crusades (called Herkus Mantas, about the Old Prussian Uprising in 1260). If you want to scroll ahead it starts at 32:45, the Old Prussian hero asks his wife to bring him the helmet (husband is pagan, wife is Christian), and a few scenes later you can see the Teutonic Knights ride out of their castle, it’s an amazing scene, I love how the horses are clad in white, and how their mantels are flowing as they ride, with the stone castle walls in the background, and the bell ringing solemnly.

    Natangai are a Western Baltic tribe. The Knights get defeated and run back into the castle. I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately. It’s just way more realistic than anything that happens in all these modern series.

    Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I’ve never seen that.

    The way it’s set up in this movie, you can see that they lived next to each other, each in their own castle, and occasionally skirmished.

    Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush

    Which one? From the 1920s or later?

    and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery

    Wow. Yea, no, I totally believe that (the IRA history is wild). I wonder if when they fought in the early Middle Ages, if they felt the warmth of their opponents’ blood on their skin.

    Some say that we weren’t always that way.

    😀

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers. Most of their “battles” were actually short raids (with the exception of bigger ones, such as the Battle of York, which was also shown in the Vikings series). Some Norwegians were banished from their societies for murder, so they were forced to seek out other living spaces further West.

    I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.

    Imagine is there was a European History month? And, similar as LGBTQ Friendship days, there were Euro Friendship days? 🙂

    • Replies: @songbird
    @LatW


    There’s a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too.
     
    That's really cool. I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.

    I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately.
     
    I love this sort of thing. Sometimes, it is even good when the story starts with the tragic aftermath of battle, without ever even showing the battle itself. (I think of the 1971 British movie Kidnapped, which is very hokey in parts, but which I still enjoyed.)

    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.

    There is an ancient and funny Irish myth that I think comes from The Destruction of Da Derga's Hostel (haven't read it in ages), where a wounded warrior is lying on the field of battle, and from where his head is naturally tilted, he sees this old woman going about the bodies, and he pleadingly asks her to take care of the fly that has been annoying him for hours, and the old hag sees that it is a wolf, buried up to its bloody haunches in his wound, and she grabs the tail and pulls it out of him.

    I also enjoyed the scene in Rob Roy, where members of the clan are just lying out on the hillside at night, with their swords, and with their cloaks folded about them, and they wake up to a frost. Once, while camping, I woke up to swirling mists in the moonlight (some of them looked like ghosts), and now it's been written into my imagination of the distant past, for my ancestors came from such damp and mountainous places.

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers.
     
    Technically true, but I hate it when historians make this sort of argument.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded - their escape schemes when captured - their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons - should still be inspirational to us all.

    I tell you, I don't know how far an Irishman would have to go back in the annals to be mathematically certain that he is reading about his ancestors. Since it is only a small country and historically wasn't very populous, it may not be very far. And Ireland is a country with some of the worst surviving genealogical records. Due to political issues, many (but not all) parishes did not even have registers until the 1850s (as I was just reading to my shock in a book by a 19th century traveler, the other day.)

    But from either extreme luck or insane hard-headedness, I can trace a single zig-zag line back, using a very rare parish with somewhat older records. One in which I believe my ancestor (putative) gave a surety for the parish priest, to promise to the authorities that the priest would not travel outside of the parish.

    Very spurious, it involves a gravestone that is leaning against the wall of the outside of a clan crypt, where the original family had their monuments thrown out settlers, and another grave in the cemetery, the grave of one of the last native chiefs in the whole country, also with some of the same heraldry on it, seems to have obviously been vandalized by soldiers - probably who fought in the war, he died in. And not a quarter of it survives, but it is enough to link historically.

    And it involves one or two assumptions, and taking old pedigrees on faith. But, I can't even tell you how much weird pleasure I feel at reading the feats of different warriors, from the 14th and 15th century, whose names are included in the line. It is more than probable that I am descended from them through multiple pathways, even without this zigzag pedigree, but I still take intense pleasure in some of the details of these specific names. Not for bragging purposes, but for what it does for my imagination.

    Well, you have struck a chord with me, LatW, and got me blabbering. (longest post on this thread, I'm sure) Part of me would still go on, and cite the minor details of forgotten, minor skirmishes, but I won't do that to you. And will instead leave by answering your question:

    Which one? From the 1920s or later?
     
    War of Independence (1920) or as they used to call it, the "Anglo-Irish War." This one:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilmichael_Ambush

    Part of my mother's family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him. But I won't say when. I was very surprised to see someone's name in particular, but, looking at a map corrected me, and I am sure it was a different individual, than the man in question, who nevertheless probably saw some interesting things, based on where he did live.

    Regrettably, he died before my time, (it would be very remarkable if he were still living), so I cannot ask him now. Though, my father met him, and was told something vague about his activities, that seemed to show where his allegiances lay in the conflict.

    Replies: @LatW

  760. A123 says: • Website
    @awry
    @A123

    Looks like Russia lost another ship now. One of their most advanced ships, the Admiral Makarov.
    Ukraine regularly attacks oil storages and plants on DNR and Russian territory (with missiles, helicopters or drones) with impunity. Apparently they manage to sabotage other ones deep in Russian territory too. Russia is more and more resembling some Arab or African semi-failed state. Apparent total incompetence as usual.

    Replies: @A123

    Looks like Russia lost another ship now. One of their most advanced ships, the Admiral Makarov.

    Terms like New or Advanced do not necessarily mean Successful. Look at the U.S problems with the Advanced Littoral Combat Ship.

    The term Advanced is somewhat questionable in this case. The Makarov hull is a 1990’s style Indian Talwar class frigate. Russia was trying to build some relatively inexpensive vessels as an interim solution.

    https://defenceforumindia.com/media/talwar-class-frigate-launch-brahmos-missile.113/

    There has been conjecture for years that the very high nose of the Talwar-class is a “really bad idea” for heavy combat. A missile strike in the nose area while the ship is underway could pull the ship apart as the expansive nose area generates lift away from the keel. It looks like the high nose helps protect deck personnel and equipment. Presumably a ship engineer or Indian Navy officer could explain additional offsetting advantages behind the choice.

    PEACE 😇

  761. @Yellowface Anon
    @Mr. Hack

    China signed a treaty to renounce the claims I remember

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Philip Owen

    Xi discussed rectifying unequal treaties at his inauguration. The only one still outstanding was the one with the Russian Empire. Angela Merkel even gave him a map of China showing northrn Manchuria now lost in Russia.

  762. @Vishnugupta
    @216

    The biggest indigenous power on the subcontinent at the dawn of British rule was the Maratha Empire who in the preceeding 70 years had systematically reduced the Mughal Empire to glorified kings of Delhi.

    I find alternate history to be a fool's pastime but the absence of British rule would likely have led to a unified subcontinent(Marathas at their greatest held sway over roughly 70% of South Asia) and a Hindu reconquista of the subcontinent.

    So no gratitude is warranted.At all.

    And its great that we like the Chinese built nuclear weapons before the majority of our people got indoor plumbing.

    Its the only proven way to safeguard one's independence something which 100-200 years of West European rule will make you value immensely.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    The Marathas were heavily supported by the French as their vehicle to control India.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    They were modernizing with French assistance.

    This was happening under the agency of the Marathas themselves.They actively sought French expertise and paid very lucrative salaries to French experts.

    They defeated the British in the first Anglo Maratha war.

    Had a quasi civil war not broken out in the Maratha Empire between the first and second Anglo Maratha wars they would have modernized their army enough to win the second Anglo Maratha war and likely end the British political presence in India by the late 18th century.

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon, @Coconuts

  763. LatW says:
    @Sean
    @Mr. Hack

    If we get to that point it will be because Russian leaders have decided that their country is no match in a war for the American sockpuppet armed forces of Ukraine. Therefore I would expect that Russia would only use a battlefield thermonuclear weapon in Western Ukraine in order decisively terminate the conventional war. I think the Europeans would not be keen to have American conventional attacks on Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, but the people running American policy seem to be unwilling to the international order principle be compromised and so the unjustified invasion cannot stand, although the Invasion of Iraq was a precedent. Blinken might lose credibility if Russia suddenly used a little nuke, but Biden may well want to appear hawkish and strong for political reasons, so it might happen very differently with each progressively upping the ante.

    I think conventional attacks in Ukraine in the aftermath of a Russian nuke use it would be responded to by Russia with another tactical big bang nuke on the territory or in the sky of Ukraine. If the Russian nuclear repositories are hit conventionally (as some have suggested Nato would react to Russia nuking Ukraine although I think it unlikely), then Russia would launch a tactical nuke at a Nato bases in Europe, probably one in Poland or Germany. That would be a single specimen 'check it or respect it' strike. However, all this is speculation because nuclear weapons are not things that can be combined with conventional war. For Putin that will be the attraction

    Of course the well worked out theory for all this is non existent because the situation of Russian nuclear first use against a US proxy not in Nato but fighting a war against Russia has never been contemplated . It was always thought that Russians would have no need to go tactical nuclear because it would be able to win conventionally. especially in its own 'near abroad' Such is not the case but the superannuated strategists continue to talk as if Russia is outgunning and out numbering Ukraine in Donbass and so Russia is about to begin winning. Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle. Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept. To use the additional octave of human conflict would be a step into the unknown and not only for Russia, but it might manage to extricate itself.

    Replies: @LatW

    Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle.

    Ukraine never accepted the loss of its territory, no self-respecting nation would, they were set to try to win it back, just didn’t have the means for it.

    Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept.

    What is exacerbating the situation is that Russia does not consider Crimea and Donbass “close to home”, but “home itself”. This includes the Kerch bridge which Ukraine would be forced to hit to stop the genocide of its people once it has the means. It’s possible that, irrationally, Russia considers all of Novorossya as “home”.

    So their military doctrine that includes first use of nuclear actually covers part of Ukraine, unfortunately. The international community does not agree with this, but it doesn’t change the fact that this is how Russia sees it in its own perception (which matters more right now). Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it’s moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there). So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @LatW


    Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it’s moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there).
     
    I suspect the Russians have never particularly wanted to make the US nervous, but I'd also bet that it is not a insuperable technical problem to remove many warheads without America knowing it. Given that no one that matters in the US thinks Russia would actually use such a nuke, if they were to remove a tactical nuke warhead from a repository then the US intel xperts would discount it as a bluff done for show in the hope of winning concessions. There are many retired generals, pundits and professors saying that the only pathsto WW3 is to not stand up to Putin at an early stage a la appeasement. But what if WW3 can starts like WW1 did? iN THE AFTERMATH OF A NUKE USE BY PUTIN THE WEST WOULD THINK VERY CAREFULLY before taking any action.

    So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation
     
    They think it is a bluff, so they think they need only hang tough and Putin will back down. The West has convinced itself he would not dare, so the suggestion that if he did America would try and destroy Russian tactical nuke repositories is a counter bluff made without any belief the situation could actually arise, and thusthere no real intention of ever following through. Ukraine lacke nukes so is irrelevant, The Russians have home advantage over America in this, inasmuch Russia naturally has the greater level of commitment over America. America has more strategic nukes butit's redundant overkill, and not a meaningfull superiority.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  764. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mr. Hack

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia. Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    This is the 21st Century - the age of instant global video and communication. The bomb would be broadcast into the homes of billions and there would be no "other side." Just imagine trying to "other side" it. "Oh, but AZOV." Or "look a transgender admiral." Or "yes, but there were a few words rumoured to have happened behind closed doors that said NATO wouldn't expand 3 decades ago!"

    These excuses are beyond pathetic already, but they would be blown away in the positive blast and eviscerated by the negative one. People who made them would be liable to get lynched. Humans do not deal with fear easily.

    And this fear, true tangible corrupting horror, that would then grip those billions would be like the Great Flood, but would take a lot longer to recede. Many years or decades even.

    And people hate those who give them cause to be afraid, nevermind legitimately terrified. Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining. Even by Russians. No bullsh*t Ron Unz-style blatant lie that actually Neocons did it would pass. He'd simply be sent to jail, if he survived the paddy wagon on the way there. This would not be a normal event. People would act like they would never imagine themselves acting and then they would do what people always do when they act like that, blame the source of the fear and make it wholly responsible even for their own actions. It would be Russia Delenda Est, globally, until Russia Delenda'd.

    And what would Russians say to themselves: "we broke the seal of planetary human survival because we were losing a war in risible fashion over absurdly concocted justifications to scab a tiny parcel of land when we have more land than any other state in the world."

    Seriously, wtf!

    It would be sick and deranged and so many Russians would agree that the population would enter a suicidal depression from which they quite possibly would never recover. And very few would feel sorry for them. I would, but I'd have to stay silent for fear of just about anybody screaming at me for trying to defend the people who "wanted/tryed to to kill everyone in the world."

    The simple fact is that no one wants weapons, with the same name as those that can destroy the planet, thrown about.

    Nevermind, that it would gain them nothing militarily and possibly lead to a conventional response that crushes them.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated. There would be an overheleming demand for that. And rightly so. The state that breaks the seal of planetary human survival that we placed on nuclear aggression must be crushed for that seal to be fixed back in place.

    The species' survival would depend on it.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation. They must be crushed without mercy, to save humanity, and the collateral damage in their citizens' lives can be as high as it needs to be, no matter how tragic.

    So no, I don't think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing. This war is a total pointless joke for them. While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Sean

    More your write, more incoherent you get. Is it the fear of losing? To rational observers so far Russia is winning. Your hysterical focus on minutia and wishful thinking changes nothing. Same with the ever more sad and infantile Mr. Hack.

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia.

    That is a very stupid statement. It would be the end of a lot more: Ukraine, Europe, US, etc…Do you think if they drop one, they wouldn’t drop more? Based on what? But I agree that as of now, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. If you start marching on Moscow they may.

    Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining.

    Not really possible, the current Western hatred is at level that would be hard to elevate. For example, your hatred of Russia would be reaffirmed, but effectively be about the same.

    “other side”

    There is already no “other side” presented in the West. So, again, how would it be different?

    I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.

    They won’t use nukes and they won’t withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death. Russia can’t do it anymore than France would allow 4 million Walloons to be expelled or killed, or the Irish Republic with the Catholic Irish in Ulster. It is not a choice, it is something any nation has to do – to protect its own. If West was willing to compromise like having an autonomy and neutrality we would not be where we are today.

    Circa regna tonat. These are dangerous times and your unhinged rhetoric doesn’t help. Try not to skip your pills, it may calm you down.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    To rational observers so far Russia is winning
     
    They are losing territory, though they still have more territory than they had before the war started. Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    they won’t withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death
     
    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    , @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    The hatred is really something. I am old enough to remember the Cold War, Evil Empire and all that overblown talk, but there was still a tendency to lionise "dissidents", the Solzhenitsyns etc. Now even Solzhenitsyn gets cancelled - because "Russian"...
    Harsher in some places than others. In London, Russian flag stickers or symbols on shops or services with international clientele were removed, in Athens I still see them around. The Orthodoxy of the Greeks makes them marginally less into "hate Russia" campaigns, I suspect.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    More of my "sad" and "infantile" wishful thinking coming true:

    https://youtu.be/P7ZWP-9QIho

    Thank you Slovakia!

    Replies: @Beckow, @Vishnugupta

  765. Sean says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mr. Hack

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia. Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    This is the 21st Century - the age of instant global video and communication. The bomb would be broadcast into the homes of billions and there would be no "other side." Just imagine trying to "other side" it. "Oh, but AZOV." Or "look a transgender admiral." Or "yes, but there were a few words rumoured to have happened behind closed doors that said NATO wouldn't expand 3 decades ago!"

    These excuses are beyond pathetic already, but they would be blown away in the positive blast and eviscerated by the negative one. People who made them would be liable to get lynched. Humans do not deal with fear easily.

    And this fear, true tangible corrupting horror, that would then grip those billions would be like the Great Flood, but would take a lot longer to recede. Many years or decades even.

    And people hate those who give them cause to be afraid, nevermind legitimately terrified. Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining. Even by Russians. No bullsh*t Ron Unz-style blatant lie that actually Neocons did it would pass. He'd simply be sent to jail, if he survived the paddy wagon on the way there. This would not be a normal event. People would act like they would never imagine themselves acting and then they would do what people always do when they act like that, blame the source of the fear and make it wholly responsible even for their own actions. It would be Russia Delenda Est, globally, until Russia Delenda'd.

    And what would Russians say to themselves: "we broke the seal of planetary human survival because we were losing a war in risible fashion over absurdly concocted justifications to scab a tiny parcel of land when we have more land than any other state in the world."

    Seriously, wtf!

    It would be sick and deranged and so many Russians would agree that the population would enter a suicidal depression from which they quite possibly would never recover. And very few would feel sorry for them. I would, but I'd have to stay silent for fear of just about anybody screaming at me for trying to defend the people who "wanted/tryed to to kill everyone in the world."

    The simple fact is that no one wants weapons, with the same name as those that can destroy the planet, thrown about.

    Nevermind, that it would gain them nothing militarily and possibly lead to a conventional response that crushes them.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated. There would be an overheleming demand for that. And rightly so. The state that breaks the seal of planetary human survival that we placed on nuclear aggression must be crushed for that seal to be fixed back in place.

    The species' survival would depend on it.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation. They must be crushed without mercy, to save humanity, and the collateral damage in their citizens' lives can be as high as it needs to be, no matter how tragic.

    So no, I don't think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing. This war is a total pointless joke for them. While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Sean

    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb

    If people thought they would, they wouldn’t have to.

    That really would be the end of Russia.

    They are getting close to the end–whatever they do.

    Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.

    But they thought the status quo was intolerable.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.

    America has repeatedly threatened China with battlefield nuclear weapons if it invaded Taiwan although Taiwan is not an independent sovereign state. America invaded Iraq for anfextremely tenuous justification.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated.

    What with?

    The species’ survival would depend on it

    Russia’s nuclear arsenals is essentially equivalent to America’s so if Russia or Russian forces in Ukraine get obliterated something pretty unpleasant is going to happen to America or American troops in Europe.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation.

    Why does Russia have the world’s largest stock of tactical nuclear weapons if it thinks it would forced to surrender if it ever used one to avoid conventional defeat?

    So no, I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.

    If they are exposed as too scared to use a nuke, Russia would loose all international respect, and respect for themselves.

    While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation

    They would be killing for the very highest of reasons. Defending their community.

    And killing is men’s work, they (Ukrainian and Russian alike) enjoy it.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    @Sean

    Good video. Apparently we can look forward to an invasion of Alaska at some point.

    Replies: @Sean

  766. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @Triteleia Laxa

    More your write, more incoherent you get. Is it the fear of losing? To rational observers so far Russia is winning. Your hysterical focus on minutia and wishful thinking changes nothing. Same with the ever more sad and infantile Mr. Hack.


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    That is a very stupid statement. It would be the end of a lot more: Ukraine, Europe, US, etc...Do you think if they drop one, they wouldn't drop more? Based on what? But I agree that as of now, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. If you start marching on Moscow they may.

    Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining.
     
    Not really possible, the current Western hatred is at level that would be hard to elevate. For example, your hatred of Russia would be reaffirmed, but effectively be about the same.

    “other side”
     
    There is already no "other side" presented in the West. So, again, how would it be different?

    I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    They won't use nukes and they won't withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death. Russia can't do it anymore than France would allow 4 million Walloons to be expelled or killed, or the Irish Republic with the Catholic Irish in Ulster. It is not a choice, it is something any nation has to do - to protect its own. If West was willing to compromise like having an autonomy and neutrality we would not be where we are today.

    Circa regna tonat. These are dangerous times and your unhinged rhetoric doesn't help. Try not to skip your pills, it may calm you down.

    Replies: @AP, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack

    To rational observers so far Russia is winning

    They are losing territory, though they still have more territory than they had before the war started. Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    they won’t withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    ...Kind of like Germany in 1943.
     
    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that. Don't cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.
     
    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion? (you mentioned Harkis before), prison camps? What would be the plan and after what many suspect happened in Bucha how would any even remotely pro-Russian people be treated? I suspect you are ok with anything happening to them. And so is the West in general. That's why a withdrawal is less likely than a further escalation.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Wokechoke
    @AP

    Russia is an exception. They won against Napoleon by burning down Moscow. They won against The Wehrmacht after they'd taken casualties that would have forced the surrender of any other military. Russia at war is Sui Generis.

    Replies: @AP

  767. Sean says:
    @LatW
    @Sean


    Time to admit Ukrmerica wants the conventional war to continue because were Russia foolhardy enough to try reinforcing failure it is going to be brought to its knees and forced to cry uncle.
     
    Ukraine never accepted the loss of its territory, no self-respecting nation would, they were set to try to win it back, just didn't have the means for it.

    Russia cannot win with the current rules of the game, and it clearly losing so close to home is something its actions have already proven it is not willing to accept.
     
    What is exacerbating the situation is that Russia does not consider Crimea and Donbass "close to home", but "home itself". This includes the Kerch bridge which Ukraine would be forced to hit to stop the genocide of its people once it has the means. It's possible that, irrationally, Russia considers all of Novorossya as "home".

    So their military doctrine that includes first use of nuclear actually covers part of Ukraine, unfortunately. The international community does not agree with this, but it doesn't change the fact that this is how Russia sees it in its own perception (which matters more right now). Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it's moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there). So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation.

    Replies: @Sean

    Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it’s moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there).

    I suspect the Russians have never particularly wanted to make the US nervous, but I’d also bet that it is not a insuperable technical problem to remove many warheads without America knowing it. Given that no one that matters in the US thinks Russia would actually use such a nuke, if they were to remove a tactical nuke warhead from a repository then the US intel xperts would discount it as a bluff done for show in the hope of winning concessions. There are many retired generals, pundits and professors saying that the only pathsto WW3 is to not stand up to Putin at an early stage a la appeasement. But what if WW3 can starts like WW1 did? iN THE AFTERMATH OF A NUKE USE BY PUTIN THE WEST WOULD THINK VERY CAREFULLY before taking any action.

    So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation

    They think it is a bluff, so they think they need only hang tough and Putin will back down. The West has convinced itself he would not dare, so the suggestion that if he did America would try and destroy Russian tactical nuke repositories is a counter bluff made without any belief the situation could actually arise, and thusthere no real intention of ever following through. Ukraine lacke nukes so is irrelevant, The Russians have home advantage over America in this, inasmuch Russia naturally has the greater level of commitment over America. America has more strategic nukes butit’s redundant overkill, and not a meaningfull superiority.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean

    I commend you to go to metaculus and predict on every nuclear weapons and warfare thread. I have a 30% one on "No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations by 2024-01-01", and that is still at 91%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/
    You will give a very low percentage (the question is double -ve) on that.

    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?

    Replies: @Sean

  768. @AP
    @Beckow


    To rational observers so far Russia is winning
     
    They are losing territory, though they still have more territory than they had before the war started. Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    they won’t withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death
     
    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    …Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that. Don’t cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion? (you mentioned Harkis before), prison camps? What would be the plan and after what many suspect happened in Bucha how would any even remotely pro-Russian people be treated? I suspect you are ok with anything happening to them. And so is the West in general. That’s why a withdrawal is less likely than a further escalation.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    …Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that.
     

    Not at all, because in 1943 the USSR had less territory than it had before the German invasion. Just as, today, Ukraine has less territory than it had prior to the Russian invasion. But Germany's seized territory had been reduced in size in 1943, as Russian seized territory is reduced in size now.

    Of course, in 1943 (at least until the Battle of Kursk in summer) Germany still had a chance of turning things around and winning. Russia still has that chance too, it hasn't reached its 1944 yet. But neither Germany in 1943 nor Russia in early May 2022 was/is "winning."


    Don’t cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?
     
    In 1943 Germany still controlled the Baltics, Kiev, etc. They won there. So? They were driven out of Moscow's outskirts, Stalingrad, etc. And Russia has been driven out of Kiev's outskirts, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion?
     

    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote. If Ukraine were to seize Donbas in its entirety I imagine a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia (a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine) , the rest would claim they had been held hostage or whatever. Donbassers don't seem to be nearly as loyal to Donbas Republics as Ukrainians are loyal to Ukraine so even per capita it would be less tragic.

    Millions killed. What have you been reading to poison your little mind in such a way?

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

  769. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    ...Kind of like Germany in 1943.
     
    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that. Don't cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.
     
    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion? (you mentioned Harkis before), prison camps? What would be the plan and after what many suspect happened in Bucha how would any even remotely pro-Russian people be treated? I suspect you are ok with anything happening to them. And so is the West in general. That's why a withdrawal is less likely than a further escalation.

    Replies: @AP

    …Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that.

    Not at all, because in 1943 the USSR had less territory than it had before the German invasion. Just as, today, Ukraine has less territory than it had prior to the Russian invasion. But Germany’s seized territory had been reduced in size in 1943, as Russian seized territory is reduced in size now.

    Of course, in 1943 (at least until the Battle of Kursk in summer) Germany still had a chance of turning things around and winning. Russia still has that chance too, it hasn’t reached its 1944 yet. But neither Germany in 1943 nor Russia in early May 2022 was/is “winning.”

    Don’t cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?

    In 1943 Germany still controlled the Baltics, Kiev, etc. They won there. So? They were driven out of Moscow’s outskirts, Stalingrad, etc. And Russia has been driven out of Kiev’s outskirts, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion?

    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote. If Ukraine were to seize Donbas in its entirety I imagine a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia (a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine) , the rest would claim they had been held hostage or whatever. Donbassers don’t seem to be nearly as loyal to Donbas Republics as Ukrainians are loyal to Ukraine so even per capita it would be less tragic.

    Millions killed. What have you been reading to poison your little mind in such a way?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    ....Russia still has that chance too, it hasn’t reached its 1944 yet.
     
    My point was that all of these "analogies" have issues. When you cherry-pick a model you prefer you have to over-simplify. It is akin to seeing Hitler behind every bush (or Bush behind every Hitler). It doesn't help in understanding what is going on.

    So far Russia has been winning, it controls the very strategic Black See coast. If Kiev can stage a counter-offensive and retake the coast then you will have something.


    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote
     
    We should hope so, but your spin is way too optimistic.

    a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia
     
    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process. For being Russian. Now you see why no government in Moscow can stand by while that would be happening? If you don't see it, you would basically be a racist, a person who assigns such low value to a Russian that any atrocity against them is ignored - or celebrated, like that bizarre hysterical elderly couple of Laxa and Mr. Hacks.

    a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine
     
    Possibly, that's why there is a war to determine who will suffer, who will be suppressed. But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that's why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise? It is right there, in oculis nostris, don't avert your eyes.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    So far as WW1 comparisons go, it is Russia fighting as Great Britain at about 30% of its potential vs. Ukraine as a USSR backed up by Lend-Lease & Bletchley fighting at 80% of its potential.

    Would a 150M Great Britain have won vs. a 35M USSR, even one outfitted with Western gear and intelligence? To ask the question is to answer it. But, lacking both the superlative combat effectiveness and greater casualty tolerance of Nazi Germany (it is not even using conscripts like the Turks were doing in Syria), it would fight in a cautious, plodding manner, attritioning the USSR with artillery and strategic bombing (Kalibrs etc.). Apart from that, the problem for Ukraine is that its TFR 20 years ago was close 1 vs. 6 for the USSR in the 1920s, and there are more or less open borders with Europe for non-svidomist men to escape to.

    ***

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize. I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer, if Zelensky goes full totalitarian, but that's hard to imagine in the Ukrainian context. The Franco-Prussian War now seems like a good frame of reference, with the equivalent of the Battle of Sedan taking place in a more protracted and attritional form in the Donbass, with subsequent units to be much less well trained, ad hoc, and poorly armed.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

  770. @AP
    @Beckow


    To rational observers so far Russia is winning
     
    They are losing territory, though they still have more territory than they had before the war started. Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    they won’t withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death
     
    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    Russia is an exception. They won against Napoleon by burning down Moscow. They won against The Wehrmacht after they’d taken casualties that would have forced the surrender of any other military. Russia at war is Sui Generis.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Wokechoke

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Mikhail

  771. S says:
    @songbird
    @S

    Route 66 was my aunt's favorite show. Never really watched it much, but I vaguely remember one episode where they visited the Bunker Hill Monument. It seems like they did a lot of location shots, in sharp contrast to a lot of other shows, where it was obvious they were confined to one area. For example, the show Knight Rider, where the character was supposed to be roaming across country, but it was obviously all near LA.

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    I'm sure you probably know this, but at the start of the show The Greatest American Hero, the protagonist had the same surname as Reagan's attempted assassin. But I don't know whether there were any other connections.

    Replies: @S, @S, @Mr. Hack

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    OT somewhat, but if you want ‘a bit spooky’, check out the vid below I ran across a few days ago. The video is from 1989 Antwerp, Belgium television, the music is from 2020. According to the lyrics, it’s about a struggle between light and dark. [Mind you, I’m not into anything too dark, or, anything, as I don’t think it’s healthy.]

    The beat, dancing, and lighting is almost mesmerizing. The women doing the dancing aren’t too bad either! 🙂

    • Thanks: songbird
  772. @Wokechoke
    @AP

    Russia is an exception. They won against Napoleon by burning down Moscow. They won against The Wehrmacht after they'd taken casualties that would have forced the surrender of any other military. Russia at war is Sui Generis.

    Replies: @AP

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @AP


    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war
     
    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it. The Russian state's attitude towards national identity has been characterised by schizophrenia ever since. If modern Russia really did represent something like the 'Tsardom of Muscovy' things would be much simpler, and it could count much more on organic spontaneous patriotism.
    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that's been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it's coming from the top.

    Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.
     
    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I've seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail

    , @Mikhail
    @AP


    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)
     
    A false equivalency for sure. Your link touches on the reality that Vyhovksy lost because many of the folks on the territory he claimed went against him. Vyhovsky is an early day version of Mazepa, Petliura and Bandera - all whose vision lost in their respective time period.

    As for the current situation:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04042022-handicapping-ukraine-and-russia-west-differences-oped/

    Excerpt -

    Russia has been losing the propaganda war. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be looking long term. At one time, the current Head of the Chechen Republic (official title) Ramzan Kadyrov, had opposed the Russian government. Now, he’s on very good terms with the Kremlin.

    In time, a greater number of Ukrainians might begin questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as someone who (under the influence of some nationalists) further instigated and prolonged a conflict, whose end result could’ve occurred on better terms for Ukraine, without the deaths, displacement and destruction, resulting from Russia’s military action.

    In turn, Putin could be increasingly viewed as someone who for years had tried to reasonably see a peaceful implementation of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol and need for a new European security arrangement.
     
  773. @AP
    @Beckow


    …Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that.
     

    Not at all, because in 1943 the USSR had less territory than it had before the German invasion. Just as, today, Ukraine has less territory than it had prior to the Russian invasion. But Germany's seized territory had been reduced in size in 1943, as Russian seized territory is reduced in size now.

    Of course, in 1943 (at least until the Battle of Kursk in summer) Germany still had a chance of turning things around and winning. Russia still has that chance too, it hasn't reached its 1944 yet. But neither Germany in 1943 nor Russia in early May 2022 was/is "winning."


    Don’t cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?
     
    In 1943 Germany still controlled the Baltics, Kiev, etc. They won there. So? They were driven out of Moscow's outskirts, Stalingrad, etc. And Russia has been driven out of Kiev's outskirts, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion?
     

    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote. If Ukraine were to seize Donbas in its entirety I imagine a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia (a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine) , the rest would claim they had been held hostage or whatever. Donbassers don't seem to be nearly as loyal to Donbas Republics as Ukrainians are loyal to Ukraine so even per capita it would be less tragic.

    Millions killed. What have you been reading to poison your little mind in such a way?

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

    ….Russia still has that chance too, it hasn’t reached its 1944 yet.

    My point was that all of these “analogies” have issues. When you cherry-pick a model you prefer you have to over-simplify. It is akin to seeing Hitler behind every bush (or Bush behind every Hitler). It doesn’t help in understanding what is going on.

    So far Russia has been winning, it controls the very strategic Black See coast. If Kiev can stage a counter-offensive and retake the coast then you will have something.

    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote

    We should hope so, but your spin is way too optimistic.

    a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia

    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process. For being Russian. Now you see why no government in Moscow can stand by while that would be happening? If you don’t see it, you would basically be a racist, a person who assigns such low value to a Russian that any atrocity against them is ignored – or celebrated, like that bizarre hysterical elderly couple of Laxa and Mr. Hacks.

    a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine

    Possibly, that’s why there is a war to determine who will suffer, who will be suppressed. But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that’s why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise? It is right there, in oculis nostris, don’t avert your eyes.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CqGeAmVu1I

    You should look at this time lapse of ww2 in Europe and North Africa. The scale of the Russian mobilization after Barbarossa was extraordinary.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    So far Russia has been winning,
     
    Well, if you look at gain/loss of territory technically Germany was "winning" until sometime in late 1944 when the Soviets finally pushed across the pre-Barbarossa boundary and seized Warsaw. In this war, Russia grabbed a lot of territory, lost about half of what it had grabbed, and has stalled after losing a lot of men and equipment. Russia still has about 75% or so of its prewar combat strength, so it has the means to reconfigure itself and start winning again, its losses have not yet been total or fatal in nature (it has not been broken, as Germany was after the Kursk battle in August 1943) but at the moment it is losing. Germany in early 1943 is a good analogy I think.

    it controls the very strategic Black See coast.
     
    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine's Black Sea coast, it's been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?

    " few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia"

    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process.
     

    So you have gone from saying that "millions" of Russians would be killed to saying that some fraction of 100,000s would be killed. Progress. It's not the 1940s, I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after, because if they are Russophiles life would be much better for them in Russia. Just as, if Russia came, millions of Ukrainians would leave for Poland and the West rather than stay behind and live under Moscow, 100,000s of Donbassers would move to Russia rather than stay behind under Kiev. Good for them, and good for Russia which would gain more Slavs.

    But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that’s why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise
     
    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine's people didn't want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    Replies: @Sean, @Beckow

  774. @Sean
    @LatW


    Apparently, the US can see every single Russian nuke and where it’s moving (as well as the bunkers in the Urals and who is there).
     
    I suspect the Russians have never particularly wanted to make the US nervous, but I'd also bet that it is not a insuperable technical problem to remove many warheads without America knowing it. Given that no one that matters in the US thinks Russia would actually use such a nuke, if they were to remove a tactical nuke warhead from a repository then the US intel xperts would discount it as a bluff done for show in the hope of winning concessions. There are many retired generals, pundits and professors saying that the only pathsto WW3 is to not stand up to Putin at an early stage a la appeasement. But what if WW3 can starts like WW1 did? iN THE AFTERMATH OF A NUKE USE BY PUTIN THE WEST WOULD THINK VERY CAREFULLY before taking any action.

    So they must have some kind of a game plan as well for this incredibly tough and extraordinary situation
     
    They think it is a bluff, so they think they need only hang tough and Putin will back down. The West has convinced itself he would not dare, so the suggestion that if he did America would try and destroy Russian tactical nuke repositories is a counter bluff made without any belief the situation could actually arise, and thusthere no real intention of ever following through. Ukraine lacke nukes so is irrelevant, The Russians have home advantage over America in this, inasmuch Russia naturally has the greater level of commitment over America. America has more strategic nukes butit's redundant overkill, and not a meaningfull superiority.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I commend you to go to metaculus and predict on every nuclear weapons and warfare thread. I have a 30% one on “No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations by 2024-01-01”, and that is still at 91%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/
    You will give a very low percentage (the question is double -ve) on that.

    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon


    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?
     
    That is the traditional nuclear war that people concluded would lead to MAD,. it's unrealistic yet all of the theoretical counter moves and ways of deterring first use have been thought about so much it is very unlikely to happen. I think those arguing against the possibility of any non-test thermonuclear detonation understand how unlike the aforementioned and much-studied scenarios the current situation is. Basically the expertise concerns a Russian turbo steamroller that is winning battles and has advancing by leaps and bounds conventionally when Nato nukes its spearheads. I happen to think that with what Ukraine has been given in the way of artillery (long range counter battery and even Excalibur shells which arw pinpoint accurate)), and their numbers of troops being greater in Donbass that is being admitted by Western experts ,Russia is going to be inexorably pushed back. Yet no one is talking about that because the Russians failing conventionally against a non nuclear non Nato power they can use a nuke against to stop a rout is not a schemata they have been trained to work with.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon

  775. To the racialist propaganda advert songbird suggests Russia filming, maybe they could add the last piece standing in the bombed-out banlieues and CBDs, and then scenes of communal farming, artisans enjoying his craft, and devout parishioners taking communion at a rural church. Dugin would clap at that clip and Guillaume Faye would be proud.

    Is there a Trad Catholic analog to the Amish or Bedouin that fits the bill?

  776. @AP
    @Wokechoke

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Mikhail

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war

    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it. The Russian state’s attitude towards national identity has been characterised by schizophrenia ever since. If modern Russia really did represent something like the ‘Tsardom of Muscovy’ things would be much simpler, and it could count much more on organic spontaneous patriotism.
    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that’s been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it’s coming from the top.

    Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I’ve seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yevardian

    Adding -ov to the Armenian -yan isn't as odd as Turks giving completely new surnames to Armenians under the Surname Law. Arabs and Albanians also got those surnames, but Greeks often got off by simply changing their patronymics to something ending in -oğlu.

    , @AP
    @Yevardian


    "Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war"

    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it.
     

    You are right in a way. I was thinking mostly about geographic extent - Russia is about where it had been in 1650 (plus some areas in the Far East), when it had captured Tatar lands and those of some tribals but had not yet expanded into non-Russian populated European lands (Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics) or Central Asia. That is, it is about 80% Russian rather than 50% Russian.

    But it has inherited some imperial attributes and is not an ethnic Russian nation-state.


    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
     
    Pretty much. Ukraine is about 98% Slavic, about as pure as Belarus and Poland, versus Russia being about 80% Slavic. Of these three, Poland is of course West Slavic and Belarus is deracinated and sort of a Russian-Soviet backwater. Only Ukraine has its own, robust East Slavic identity that people are willing to kill and die for on a large scale.

    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I’ve seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

     

    That's the only one I could think of that was a very good film. Лісова пісня. Мавка wasn't bad either IIRC but I don't remember it as well as I do Тени забытых предков so it's probably not as good.

    There are also those charming cartoons with Cossacks and the one with the dog and his wolf friend.

    Would the Polish film with the Ukrainian actors, Fire and Sword, count?

    Winter on Fire is a well-made documentary/propaganda film.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Mikhail
    @Yevardian


    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that’s been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it’s coming from the top.
     
    Would like to see some follow-up on this. The following links to the Tatarstan and Buryatia government sites are each in three languages

    https://tatarstan.ru/

    https://egov-buryatia.ru/
  777. @Yevardian
    @AP


    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war
     
    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it. The Russian state's attitude towards national identity has been characterised by schizophrenia ever since. If modern Russia really did represent something like the 'Tsardom of Muscovy' things would be much simpler, and it could count much more on organic spontaneous patriotism.
    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that's been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it's coming from the top.

    Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.
     
    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I've seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail

    Adding -ov to the Armenian -yan isn’t as odd as Turks giving completely new surnames to Armenians under the Surname Law. Arabs and Albanians also got those surnames, but Greeks often got off by simply changing their patronymics to something ending in -oğlu.

  778. @Philip Owen
    @Vishnugupta

    The Marathas were heavily supported by the French as their vehicle to control India.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    They were modernizing with French assistance.

    This was happening under the agency of the Marathas themselves.They actively sought French expertise and paid very lucrative salaries to French experts.

    They defeated the British in the first Anglo Maratha war.

    Had a quasi civil war not broken out in the Maratha Empire between the first and second Anglo Maratha wars they would have modernized their army enough to win the second Anglo Maratha war and likely end the British political presence in India by the late 18th century.

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Vishnugupta

    Clive kept his powder dry and suborned Mir Jaffa.

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Vishnugupta

    Do you think the Marathas could have ended destructive economic penetration and not becoming another Qing? This was the greater part of India's subjugation.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    , @Coconuts
    @Vishnugupta


    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.
     
    But the French, British and Dutch also all fought against each other in India. French expansion was curtailed by British activities, and the French acted to threaten British interests.
  779. ww2 by the numbers…of soldiers on each front.

    Brilliant illustration of how to quantify war.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Wokechoke

    Not really. What mattered once the British Empire had fended off the German attack was making atom bombs and the planes to deliver them. The UK/Canadian bomb would have been ready by 1947. The US accelerated progress (more uranium for the separation process).

    The land war was secondary. Without the Royal Navy to guide supplies to Murmansk and Iran, Russia would have failed in 1941 or 1942. Most Russian losses were self imposed. Due to appalling tactics and complete breakdown (abondonment) of civilian supplies. Bolshevik food security was always terrible even in peace.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  780. @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    They were modernizing with French assistance.

    This was happening under the agency of the Marathas themselves.They actively sought French expertise and paid very lucrative salaries to French experts.

    They defeated the British in the first Anglo Maratha war.

    Had a quasi civil war not broken out in the Maratha Empire between the first and second Anglo Maratha wars they would have modernized their army enough to win the second Anglo Maratha war and likely end the British political presence in India by the late 18th century.

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon, @Coconuts

    Clive kept his powder dry and suborned Mir Jaffa.

  781. @Beckow
    @AP


    ....Russia still has that chance too, it hasn’t reached its 1944 yet.
     
    My point was that all of these "analogies" have issues. When you cherry-pick a model you prefer you have to over-simplify. It is akin to seeing Hitler behind every bush (or Bush behind every Hitler). It doesn't help in understanding what is going on.

    So far Russia has been winning, it controls the very strategic Black See coast. If Kiev can stage a counter-offensive and retake the coast then you will have something.


    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote
     
    We should hope so, but your spin is way too optimistic.

    a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia
     
    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process. For being Russian. Now you see why no government in Moscow can stand by while that would be happening? If you don't see it, you would basically be a racist, a person who assigns such low value to a Russian that any atrocity against them is ignored - or celebrated, like that bizarre hysterical elderly couple of Laxa and Mr. Hacks.

    a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine
     
    Possibly, that's why there is a war to determine who will suffer, who will be suppressed. But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that's why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise? It is right there, in oculis nostris, don't avert your eyes.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

    You should look at this time lapse of ww2 in Europe and North Africa. The scale of the Russian mobilization after Barbarossa was extraordinary.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    Thanks, that's a great visual summary of what WWII was really like: a massive attack by almost all of Europe on Russia. A fourth or fifth one in the last few hundred years, from Napoleon to Hitler, to now some "Truss" lady with bad teeth. They can't help themselves.

    It is always a bloody mess, because: the resources. And because many start hysterically hating anything Russian. Look up Napoleon, Napoleon III, Crimean war, WWI and WWII propaganda - it is always the same: a fast descent into we are saving the civilization against savage murderous mongrels of the east.

    The mongrel race fights back, grudgingly, slowly, at first hesitantly. Then they prevail and the civilized Europeans quickly pretend: "oh, nothing", "they made us do it", and "you could had surrendered, we have better toys..." Escapist BS of infantile minds.

    In quick succession West goes from aggression to denial, from open hatred to contrition. They walk away from their bloody deeds like they always do around the world.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  782. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Thulean Friend

    Schopenhauer's parents were rich enough that he never had to work. Only such a man would have to worry about wasting too much of his time reading books. Those of us in the normal contingent have other things to worry about!

    After the first couple of chapters of Peterson I skimmed plenty. If there was something utterly brilliant mixed in that part I missed it shucks darn it.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    It’s just a rather sad testament to societies’ decay that a man that tells men to put their pants on and clean their room is hailed by many as some visionary.

    I’d certainly take him over the Lena Dunhams of the world any day, but in any sane society his message would be just common sense and taken for granted.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    On the bright side nobody will forget soon that he went to Russia to get a week of induced coma to get off benzodiazepines which treatment is not allowed in U.S. Canada Britain France or Germany. Without Peterson I might never heard of this amazing procedure.

    A Russian friend of mine tells me about an alcoholism treatment they use where they hit you on the head with a hammer. I think maybe he is pulling my leg.

  783. @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    They were modernizing with French assistance.

    This was happening under the agency of the Marathas themselves.They actively sought French expertise and paid very lucrative salaries to French experts.

    They defeated the British in the first Anglo Maratha war.

    Had a quasi civil war not broken out in the Maratha Empire between the first and second Anglo Maratha wars they would have modernized their army enough to win the second Anglo Maratha war and likely end the British political presence in India by the late 18th century.

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon, @Coconuts

    Do you think the Marathas could have ended destructive economic penetration and not becoming another Qing? This was the greater part of India’s subjugation.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Yellowface Anon

    It would all depend on who was heading the Empire.

    There were some who were Meiji Japan tier visionaries who wanted a modern state modeled on the French Empire. The majority though saw the need for a modern military but their views on other reform proposals are unknown.

    As luck would have it the ones leading the Maratha Empire in the decades leading up to the second Anglo Maratha war actively blocked military restructuring to safeguard their petty fiefdoms.Having won the first Anglo Maratha war they did not objectively assess the British threat and couldn't draw obvious lessons from the fact that a foreign power largely employing mercenaries from castes not known for any military achievements almost defeated them in the war.

  784. @AP
    @AP

    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo

    Anglo is a prefix indicating a relation to, or descent from, the Angles, England, English culture, the English people or the English language, such as in the term Anglosphere. It is often used alone, somewhat loosely, to refer to people of British descent in Anglo-America, the Anglophone Caribbean, South Africa, Namibia, Australia, and New Zealand. It is used in Canada to differentiate between the French speakers (Francophone) of mainly Quebec and some parts of New Brunswick, and the English speakers (Anglophone) in the rest of Canada. It is also used in the United States to distinguish the growing Spanish-speaking Latino population from the English-speaking majority.

    Replies: @Ron Unz

    No mention of Anglo being a slur on the wikipedia article for Anglo (though it says Irish can be offended when they are called Anglos)

    America’s founding stock were Anglo-Saxons, and they still constituted roughly half the population and the bulk of the ruling elites up to roughly WWII. So America was widely described as an Anglo-Saxon country, with mainstream Americans sometimes called Anglos for short. It’s roughly the equivalent of the term “Yank.”

    • Agree: AP
  785. @Yellowface Anon
    @Vishnugupta

    Do you think the Marathas could have ended destructive economic penetration and not becoming another Qing? This was the greater part of India's subjugation.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    It would all depend on who was heading the Empire.

    There were some who were Meiji Japan tier visionaries who wanted a modern state modeled on the French Empire. The majority though saw the need for a modern military but their views on other reform proposals are unknown.

    As luck would have it the ones leading the Maratha Empire in the decades leading up to the second Anglo Maratha war actively blocked military restructuring to safeguard their petty fiefdoms.Having won the first Anglo Maratha war they did not objectively assess the British threat and couldn’t draw obvious lessons from the fact that a foreign power largely employing mercenaries from castes not known for any military achievements almost defeated them in the war.

  786. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    I find these nuclear threats from Russia pathetic, imo they do indicate that something is seriously wrong with a lot of Russians. None of it makes sense either, unless they seriously believe that NATO would nuke them first
     
    I'm inclined to believe it's a desperate bluff, spurred on after the dramatic Russian blunders in the opening stage of the war, perception of Russia's conventional military threat was dramatically reduced. I don't think a temperamentally cautious personality like Putin would make such gestures unless he felt Russia's strategic position was in truly dire straights.

    All rather unfortunate, he's truly trashed his legacy of stabilising the country after 90s. It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind. A Russian military coup so that operations are conducted properly is very far off yet (internal prestige of Russian army, is in fact, now very low), but for the first time ever, I'm seeing it as a distant possibility. There must be many officers thinking like Strelkov staying silent for the moment.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Ron Unz

    It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind.

    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?

    The American leaders making such threats haven’t been top officials, but surely those aren’t the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.

    And don’t forget the public calls for Putin’s assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Ron Unz


    And don’t forget the public calls for Putin’s assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?
     
    Lindsey Graham is a GOP(e) holdover playing out his last act as an elected Republican. His wacky statements (including those about Putin) are an "audition" for Leftoid employment once he heads trough the revolving door into the lobbyist community.

    Few people in this country take him seriously. The most humiliating way that Putin can deal with Lindsey is ignoring his chihuahua like yipping.

    wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation? ... The American leaders making such threats haven’t been top officials, but surely those aren’t the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.
     
    Sending out incredibly junior personnel that have the same gravitas and impact as Lindsey Graham could be done. It is unnecessary, but not problematic. Perhaps a file clerk or the head janitor from the Russian embassy could suggest to the media that Graham's comments are outside of diplomatic norms.
    ____

    The much stronger statements that Russia has been making, have nothing to do with ineffectual U.S. officials. Instead, it is driven by very enthusiastic support for Ukraine coming from credible, Polish elected leadership.

    It is an unsubtle reminder that NATO is a *defensive* pact. If Poland takes major *offensive* action, such as sending large numbers of Polish military units into Ukraine, they effectively forego NATO protection. France, UK, and the U.S. do not want to be dragged into a nuclear exchange because Polish leadership acted unilaterally. Presumably, the senior NATO command structure is clarifying to Poland's military leadership the actions that will not be supported.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?
     
    I wasn't aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that? I admit just withdrew any close following at all of American government affairs in disgust early in the Trump administration, as he filled up his cabinet with people like John Bolton.
    But if US officials have really called for Putin's assassination as government statements, I'm not sure what the right reaction to that is. Is a 'Madman' doctrine on both sides really the way to go?

    But the criticism is more that Putin seems to be going for an escalation of nuclear rhetoric, in lieu of escalating conventional military for this 'The Special Operation' (maybe soon, who knows). Of course, I'm far from any expert, but considering that US itself is to all intents and purposes at war with Russia (giving direct intelligence in aiding Ukraine to assassinate generals and presumably sink that Battleship in the Black Sea), Putin isn't quite treating this war as the existential national emergency that it is. Other than the absence of actual foreign troops, Russia has essentially stumbled into war with all of NATO, the force multiplier for Ukrainian forces is only going to increase. Every few weeks Western involvement in the war creeps further and further into the grey zone of war with Russia, it's absolutely in Russian self-interest to finish this conflict as soon as possible (Russia still hasn't felt full economic effects of sanctions yet either), whatever the immediate short-term costs.
    Russia military escalation leaves less time for European military escalation, then the situation becomes really serious, especially if it drags for over a year. From what I can see, China looks it wants to stay out, probably the most they can get out of China is help in bullying central asia, but I don't see more than that.

    Perhaps the harsh crackdown on any and all media dissent is a preparation for military escalation, rather than Putin covering himself, but I don't see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have, and seriously pressuring Belarus and Central Asia to at least recognise Crimea, it's not as if they have anything to lose diplomatically at this point.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @sudden death, @Ron Unz

  787. @songbird
    @S

    Route 66 was my aunt's favorite show. Never really watched it much, but I vaguely remember one episode where they visited the Bunker Hill Monument. It seems like they did a lot of location shots, in sharp contrast to a lot of other shows, where it was obvious they were confined to one area. For example, the show Knight Rider, where the character was supposed to be roaming across country, but it was obviously all near LA.

    The connections seem a bit spooky.

    I'm sure you probably know this, but at the start of the show The Greatest American Hero, the protagonist had the same surname as Reagan's attempted assassin. But I don't know whether there were any other connections.

    Replies: @S, @S, @Mr. Hack

    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip” shot during the same period? I remember watching them (and reruns) but can’t say that I actually remember any specific episodes. That was a long time ago. I do remember that I enjoyed watching both shows…

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip”
     
    Honestly, never heard of that one.

    One of my favorite old shows, used to be Bonanza, the first show or one of the first shows to be shot fully in color. Haven't seen it in ages. I guess it was often pretty hokey, but I feel like it had an ambition, and it appeals to me how it was a show with a paterfamilias. I definitely feel like it had something of the spirit of the '50s or earlier, even though it went on into the '70s.

    Must have been pretty popular. I have heard of Germans who knew about it, and it had nearly half a thousand episodes.

    I also appreciate some of the old episodes of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone. But only the good ones. Many of the others are sad or depressing and don't resonate with me.

    Replies: @songbird, @Keypusher, @Mr. Hack

  788. AP says:
    @Yevardian
    @AP


    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war
     
    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it. The Russian state's attitude towards national identity has been characterised by schizophrenia ever since. If modern Russia really did represent something like the 'Tsardom of Muscovy' things would be much simpler, and it could count much more on organic spontaneous patriotism.
    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that's been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it's coming from the top.

    Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.
     
    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I've seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail

    “Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war”

    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it.

    You are right in a way. I was thinking mostly about geographic extent – Russia is about where it had been in 1650 (plus some areas in the Far East), when it had captured Tatar lands and those of some tribals but had not yet expanded into non-Russian populated European lands (Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics) or Central Asia. That is, it is about 80% Russian rather than 50% Russian.

    But it has inherited some imperial attributes and is not an ethnic Russian nation-state.

    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.

    Pretty much. Ukraine is about 98% Slavic, about as pure as Belarus and Poland, versus Russia being about 80% Slavic. Of these three, Poland is of course West Slavic and Belarus is deracinated and sort of a Russian-Soviet backwater. Only Ukraine has its own, robust East Slavic identity that people are willing to kill and die for on a large scale.

    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I’ve seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    That’s the only one I could think of that was a very good film. Лісова пісня. Мавка wasn’t bad either IIRC but I don’t remember it as well as I do Тени забытых предков so it’s probably not as good.

    There are also those charming cartoons with Cossacks and the one with the dog and his wolf friend.

    Would the Polish film with the Ukrainian actors, Fire and Sword, count?

    Winter on Fire is a well-made documentary/propaganda film.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @AP

    This, about the Donbas. It's real horror and dark humour with an ending to make you think.

    https://easterneuropeanmovies.com/drama/donbass?fbclid=IwAR1GWY2F0VWPEqKlCLfe8ibJkU1oVr1f2WEHn4CSj5xXa4QG4cKudBk2a6M

  789. @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It's just a rather sad testament to societies' decay that a man that tells men to put their pants on and clean their room is hailed by many as some visionary.

    I'd certainly take him over the Lena Dunhams of the world any day, but in any sane society his message would be just common sense and taken for granted.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    On the bright side nobody will forget soon that he went to Russia to get a week of induced coma to get off benzodiazepines which treatment is not allowed in U.S. Canada Britain France or Germany. Without Peterson I might never heard of this amazing procedure.

    A Russian friend of mine tells me about an alcoholism treatment they use where they hit you on the head with a hammer. I think maybe he is pulling my leg.

    • LOL: songbird, Barbarossa
  790. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    ....Russia still has that chance too, it hasn’t reached its 1944 yet.
     
    My point was that all of these "analogies" have issues. When you cherry-pick a model you prefer you have to over-simplify. It is akin to seeing Hitler behind every bush (or Bush behind every Hitler). It doesn't help in understanding what is going on.

    So far Russia has been winning, it controls the very strategic Black See coast. If Kiev can stage a counter-offensive and retake the coast then you will have something.


    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote
     
    We should hope so, but your spin is way too optimistic.

    a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia
     
    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process. For being Russian. Now you see why no government in Moscow can stand by while that would be happening? If you don't see it, you would basically be a racist, a person who assigns such low value to a Russian that any atrocity against them is ignored - or celebrated, like that bizarre hysterical elderly couple of Laxa and Mr. Hacks.

    a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine
     
    Possibly, that's why there is a war to determine who will suffer, who will be suppressed. But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that's why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise? It is right there, in oculis nostris, don't avert your eyes.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @AP

    So far Russia has been winning,

    Well, if you look at gain/loss of territory technically Germany was “winning” until sometime in late 1944 when the Soviets finally pushed across the pre-Barbarossa boundary and seized Warsaw. In this war, Russia grabbed a lot of territory, lost about half of what it had grabbed, and has stalled after losing a lot of men and equipment. Russia still has about 75% or so of its prewar combat strength, so it has the means to reconfigure itself and start winning again, its losses have not yet been total or fatal in nature (it has not been broken, as Germany was after the Kursk battle in August 1943) but at the moment it is losing. Germany in early 1943 is a good analogy I think.

    it controls the very strategic Black See coast.

    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, it’s been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?

    ” few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia”

    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process.

    So you have gone from saying that “millions” of Russians would be killed to saying that some fraction of 100,000s would be killed. Progress. It’s not the 1940s, I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after, because if they are Russophiles life would be much better for them in Russia. Just as, if Russia came, millions of Ukrainians would leave for Poland and the West rather than stay behind and live under Moscow, 100,000s of Donbassers would move to Russia rather than stay behind under Kiev. Good for them, and good for Russia which would gain more Slavs.

    But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that’s why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise

    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP


    Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.
     
    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting. As a result the Ukrainian population and infrastucture has been decimated. Some room for improvement there because goverments are elected to prevent invasions rather that fighting them, no?

    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.
     
    They did not think Putin was serious. It is only a few months since Zelensky publicly told Biden to stop talking about an invasion. Counting on America, Ukraine simply underestimated Russian willpower and decisiveness. They are paying dearly for it, and will not stop paying for decades to come.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Beckow
    @AP

    Your robust single-minded enthusiasm is refreshing. I mean that sincerely.

    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on your own mind, massively exaggerate. There is always use for people who live in the moment, lack self-doubt, and fully buy the ideology de jour.

    You have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc...but in retrospect that was a throw-away pose that you had while waiting for the real fight: get the f...ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And: it is for their own good, they will be happier when expelled to Russia.

    A compromise is a dictate, "Ukrainian" people are only ones that you say - a monolithic mass insisting on banning the Russian language, expelling their cousins, and craving Nato bases.


    I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after
     
    Soon after? You don't say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or none? Would anyone who can't pronounce "h" properly be abused, possibly shot? None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred, damn the victims (they asked for it, didn't they?).

    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, it’s been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?
     
    Let's stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol, Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast. Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down. The war is and will be about what happens to Nikolaev-Odessa. So far it looks like Russians have an upper hand there, they are de facto annexing Kherson with minimal resistance by some locals. If history is any guide, they will stay there. If Kiev tries a frontal attack they either win or get massacred. You know the odds.

    Replies: @AP

  791. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean

    I commend you to go to metaculus and predict on every nuclear weapons and warfare thread. I have a 30% one on "No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations by 2024-01-01", and that is still at 91%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/
    You will give a very low percentage (the question is double -ve) on that.

    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?

    Replies: @Sean

    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?

    That is the traditional nuclear war that people concluded would lead to MAD,. it’s unrealistic yet all of the theoretical counter moves and ways of deterring first use have been thought about so much it is very unlikely to happen. I think those arguing against the possibility of any non-test thermonuclear detonation understand how unlike the aforementioned and much-studied scenarios the current situation is. Basically the expertise concerns a Russian turbo steamroller that is winning battles and has advancing by leaps and bounds conventionally when Nato nukes its spearheads. I happen to think that with what Ukraine has been given in the way of artillery (long range counter battery and even Excalibur shells which arw pinpoint accurate)), and their numbers of troops being greater in Donbass that is being admitted by Western experts ,Russia is going to be inexorably pushed back. Yet no one is talking about that because the Russians failing conventionally against a non nuclear non Nato power they can use a nuke against to stop a rout is not a schemata they have been trained to work with.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean

    My preferred form of war is where civilian assets are protected, in other words not Total. Medieval peasants continue toiling in fields while armies fought on (on agricultural land none less, but the damage isn't deliberate).

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean

    Would you actually think Russia won't escalate to attack NATO and increase the chance for a MAD with destructions of population centers occur?

    If you think population centers will more likely be spared under nuclear wars than not, would Europe, Russia or the US end up more similar to Central-Eastern Europe (Germany included) or Japan post-WWII, where there were still most of the pre-war population to rebuild?

    Replies: @Sean

  792. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP
    @Wokechoke

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Mikhail

    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war officially with the Hetmanate if the Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konotop_(1659)

    A false equivalency for sure. Your link touches on the reality that Vyhovksy lost because many of the folks on the territory he claimed went against him. Vyhovsky is an early day version of Mazepa, Petliura and Bandera – all whose vision lost in their respective time period.

    As for the current situation:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04042022-handicapping-ukraine-and-russia-west-differences-oped/

    Excerpt –

    Russia has been losing the propaganda war. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be looking long term. At one time, the current Head of the Chechen Republic (official title) Ramzan Kadyrov, had opposed the Russian government. Now, he’s on very good terms with the Kremlin.

    In time, a greater number of Ukrainians might begin questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as someone who (under the influence of some nationalists) further instigated and prolonged a conflict, whose end result could’ve occurred on better terms for Ukraine, without the deaths, displacement and destruction, resulting from Russia’s military action.

    In turn, Putin could be increasingly viewed as someone who for years had tried to reasonably see a peaceful implementation of the 2015 UN approved Minsk Protocol and need for a new European security arrangement.

  793. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Yevardian
    @AP


    Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war
     
    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it. The Russian state's attitude towards national identity has been characterised by schizophrenia ever since. If modern Russia really did represent something like the 'Tsardom of Muscovy' things would be much simpler, and it could count much more on organic spontaneous patriotism.
    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that's been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it's coming from the top.

    Hetmanate had massive support from the rest of Europe and if it were free of fatal internal divisions.
     
    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I've seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AP, @Mikhail

    I noticed recently the Russian government started cracking down on minority languages. I mean, that’s been going on for a long time at the local level, but now it’s coming from the top.

    Would like to see some follow-up on this. The following links to the Tatarstan and Buryatia government sites are each in three languages

    https://tatarstan.ru/

    https://egov-buryatia.ru/

  794. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Beckow


    So far Russia has been winning,
     
    Well, if you look at gain/loss of territory technically Germany was "winning" until sometime in late 1944 when the Soviets finally pushed across the pre-Barbarossa boundary and seized Warsaw. In this war, Russia grabbed a lot of territory, lost about half of what it had grabbed, and has stalled after losing a lot of men and equipment. Russia still has about 75% or so of its prewar combat strength, so it has the means to reconfigure itself and start winning again, its losses have not yet been total or fatal in nature (it has not been broken, as Germany was after the Kursk battle in August 1943) but at the moment it is losing. Germany in early 1943 is a good analogy I think.

    it controls the very strategic Black See coast.
     
    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine's Black Sea coast, it's been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?

    " few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia"

    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process.
     

    So you have gone from saying that "millions" of Russians would be killed to saying that some fraction of 100,000s would be killed. Progress. It's not the 1940s, I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after, because if they are Russophiles life would be much better for them in Russia. Just as, if Russia came, millions of Ukrainians would leave for Poland and the West rather than stay behind and live under Moscow, 100,000s of Donbassers would move to Russia rather than stay behind under Kiev. Good for them, and good for Russia which would gain more Slavs.

    But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that’s why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise
     
    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine's people didn't want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    Replies: @Sean, @Beckow

    Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting. As a result the Ukrainian population and infrastucture has been decimated. Some room for improvement there because goverments are elected to prevent invasions rather that fighting them, no?

    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    They did not think Putin was serious. It is only a few months since Zelensky publicly told Biden to stop talking about an invasion. Counting on America, Ukraine simply underestimated Russian willpower and decisiveness. They are paying dearly for it, and will not stop paying for decades to come.

    • Agree: PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting.
     
    It can do more about the former than about the latter. Large foreign countries covet Ukrainian land.

    They did not think Putin was serious.
     
    This is doubtful, behind the scenes. It turns out that the Ukrainian military were relatively well prepared for this invasion.

    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to - no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces. The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood. Historically this has been the fate, sooner or later, of all small nations bordering Russia. Is it about all these small nations being bad at preventing invasions, or about Russia itself?

    Replies: @Sean

  795. @LatW
    @songbird


    the O’Neill clan had an interesting battlecry Lámh-derg abú, meaning the Red Hand to victory. This refers to the ancient Red Hand of Ulster, a symbol still used today
     
    It's very bright red, it looks good with pristine white.



    There's a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too. It is maroon with a white stripe in the middle, and, according to legend, a wounded chieftain was laid on a white sheet, the white stripe in the middle is where his spine was, that remained white.

    I feel like we have never seen a realistic battle onscreen. Would they run? I feel like with pitched battles, they would try to conserve their energy, walk into each other, and not break formation, but remain in a mass, contending against another mass
     
    I agree, I've pondered this a lot, too. These current depictions are pure entertainment, kind of like sports. Not sure it could've been sustained in real life at such intensity for a long time (even longer than a half hour). They definitely just walked more, and some must've hidden in the forest.

    One of the realistic scenes I've seen is from a Lithuanian movie about Northern Crusades (called Herkus Mantas, about the Old Prussian Uprising in 1260). If you want to scroll ahead it starts at 32:45, the Old Prussian hero asks his wife to bring him the helmet (husband is pagan, wife is Christian), and a few scenes later you can see the Teutonic Knights ride out of their castle, it's an amazing scene, I love how the horses are clad in white, and how their mantels are flowing as they ride, with the stone castle walls in the background, and the bell ringing solemnly.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyAomvfRwH0&t=2544s

    Natangai are a Western Baltic tribe. The Knights get defeated and run back into the castle. I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately. It's just way more realistic than anything that happens in all these modern series.

    Historically, sometimes, they had single combats before the battle, but I’ve never seen that.
     
    The way it's set up in this movie, you can see that they lived next to each other, each in their own castle, and occasionally skirmished.

    Just the other night I was reading about an IRA ambush
     
    Which one? From the 1920s or later?


    and it is said that one of the guys had the blood of his enemy shoot into his mouth, from a pulsing artery
     
    Wow. Yea, no, I totally believe that (the IRA history is wild). I wonder if when they fought in the early Middle Ages, if they felt the warmth of their opponents' blood on their skin.

    Some say that we weren’t always that way.
     
    :D

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers. Most of their "battles" were actually short raids (with the exception of bigger ones, such as the Battle of York, which was also shown in the Vikings series). Some Norwegians were banished from their societies for murder, so they were forced to seek out other living spaces further West.

    I think anyone would be afraid to create a Euro cultural company, with a Euro staff, either in America or Western Europe.
     
    Imagine is there was a European History month? And, similar as LGBTQ Friendship days, there were Euro Friendship days? :)

    Replies: @songbird

    There’s a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too.

    That’s really cool. I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.

    [MORE]

    I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately.

    I love this sort of thing. Sometimes, it is even good when the story starts with the tragic aftermath of battle, without ever even showing the battle itself. (I think of the 1971 British movie Kidnapped, which is very hokey in parts, but which I still enjoyed.)

    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.

    There is an ancient and funny Irish myth that I think comes from The Destruction of Da Derga’s Hostel (haven’t read it in ages), where a wounded warrior is lying on the field of battle, and from where his head is naturally tilted, he sees this old woman going about the bodies, and he pleadingly asks her to take care of the fly that has been annoying him for hours, and the old hag sees that it is a wolf, buried up to its bloody haunches in his wound, and she grabs the tail and pulls it out of him.

    I also enjoyed the scene in Rob Roy, where members of the clan are just lying out on the hillside at night, with their swords, and with their cloaks folded about them, and they wake up to a frost. Once, while camping, I woke up to swirling mists in the moonlight (some of them looked like ghosts), and now it’s been written into my imagination of the distant past, for my ancestors came from such damp and mountainous places.

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers.

    Technically true, but I hate it when historians make this sort of argument.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded – their escape schemes when captured – their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons – should still be inspirational to us all.

    I tell you, I don’t know how far an Irishman would have to go back in the annals to be mathematically certain that he is reading about his ancestors. Since it is only a small country and historically wasn’t very populous, it may not be very far. And Ireland is a country with some of the worst surviving genealogical records. Due to political issues, many (but not all) parishes did not even have registers until the 1850s (as I was just reading to my shock in a book by a 19th century traveler, the other day.)

    But from either extreme luck or insane hard-headedness, I can trace a single zig-zag line back, using a very rare parish with somewhat older records. One in which I believe my ancestor (putative) gave a surety for the parish priest, to promise to the authorities that the priest would not travel outside of the parish.

    Very spurious, it involves a gravestone that is leaning against the wall of the outside of a clan crypt, where the original family had their monuments thrown out settlers, and another grave in the cemetery, the grave of one of the last native chiefs in the whole country, also with some of the same heraldry on it, seems to have obviously been vandalized by soldiers – probably who fought in the war, he died in. And not a quarter of it survives, but it is enough to link historically.

    And it involves one or two assumptions, and taking old pedigrees on faith. But, I can’t even tell you how much weird pleasure I feel at reading the feats of different warriors, from the 14th and 15th century, whose names are included in the line. It is more than probable that I am descended from them through multiple pathways, even without this zigzag pedigree, but I still take intense pleasure in some of the details of these specific names. Not for bragging purposes, but for what it does for my imagination.

    Well, you have struck a chord with me, LatW, and got me blabbering. (longest post on this thread, I’m sure) Part of me would still go on, and cite the minor details of forgotten, minor skirmishes, but I won’t do that to you. And will instead leave by answering your question:

    Which one? From the 1920s or later?

    War of Independence (1920) or as they used to call it, the “Anglo-Irish War.” This one:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilmichael_Ambush

    Part of my mother’s family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him. But I won’t say when. I was very surprised to see someone’s name in particular, but, looking at a map corrected me, and I am sure it was a different individual, than the man in question, who nevertheless probably saw some interesting things, based on where he did live.

    Regrettably, he died before my time, (it would be very remarkable if he were still living), so I cannot ask him now. Though, my father met him, and was told something vague about his activities, that seemed to show where his allegiances lay in the conflict.

    • Thanks: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @LatW
    @songbird


    I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.
     
    Well, in modern times, it is being used starting the 1870s, but the colors were chosen because of the events from 1279, depicted in the so called Rhymed Chronicles about fighting between the Balts and the Teutonic Knights (Älteste Livländische Reimchronik, 1290-1296). The Chronicle mentions that such a flag was used. So one can say the first sighting is from that time.


    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.
     
    Right, what I like about those kinds of scenes is that they show the ancestors as normal human beings, who can be combative, but are not crazy savages with extraordinary, almost inhuman levels of strength and cruelty.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded – their escape schemes when captured – their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons – should still be inspirational to us all.
     
    Agree 100%. Thanks for phrasing it so nicely. The red hand symbolizes this. One is wounded and could just lay down and die, but he will still reach out and yank at some flag.

    What I meant was that "viking" back in those days was sort of an occupation (not everyone was a viking, they could be a smith, ship builder, etc). But, of course, the warrior ethos is also very important.

    Kilmichael Ambush
     
    This ambush was featured in the movie The Wind That Shakes the Barley (I'm sure you've seen it). There was quite an intense exchange of fire. What I liked about that scene is how they prepared and dispersed across that area, in very lush grass, wearing those cool berets. You know, there's a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O'Connor).

    Part of my mother’s family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him.
     
    Tom Barry, you mean? It's a small place in County Cork.

    Btw, Sinn Fein just won in Northern Ireland in a historic election (a follow up development to Brexit?). A lady, too, Michelle O'Neill, is she from the O'Neill clan? :)

    It seems that they're not that radical though when it comes to "woke" things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I'd imagine?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @songbird

  796. @Beckow
    @Triteleia Laxa

    More your write, more incoherent you get. Is it the fear of losing? To rational observers so far Russia is winning. Your hysterical focus on minutia and wishful thinking changes nothing. Same with the ever more sad and infantile Mr. Hack.


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    That is a very stupid statement. It would be the end of a lot more: Ukraine, Europe, US, etc...Do you think if they drop one, they wouldn't drop more? Based on what? But I agree that as of now, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. If you start marching on Moscow they may.

    Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining.
     
    Not really possible, the current Western hatred is at level that would be hard to elevate. For example, your hatred of Russia would be reaffirmed, but effectively be about the same.

    “other side”
     
    There is already no "other side" presented in the West. So, again, how would it be different?

    I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    They won't use nukes and they won't withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death. Russia can't do it anymore than France would allow 4 million Walloons to be expelled or killed, or the Irish Republic with the Catholic Irish in Ulster. It is not a choice, it is something any nation has to do - to protect its own. If West was willing to compromise like having an autonomy and neutrality we would not be where we are today.

    Circa regna tonat. These are dangerous times and your unhinged rhetoric doesn't help. Try not to skip your pills, it may calm you down.

    Replies: @AP, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack

    The hatred is really something. I am old enough to remember the Cold War, Evil Empire and all that overblown talk, but there was still a tendency to lionise “dissidents”, the Solzhenitsyns etc. Now even Solzhenitsyn gets cancelled – because “Russian”…
    Harsher in some places than others. In London, Russian flag stickers or symbols on shops or services with international clientele were removed, in Athens I still see them around. The Orthodoxy of the Greeks makes them marginally less into “hate Russia” campaigns, I suspect.

  797. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show "77 Sunset Strip" shot during the same period? I remember watching them (and reruns) but can't say that I actually remember any specific episodes. That was a long time ago. I do remember that I enjoyed watching both shows...

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Edd_Byrnes_Kookie_Sue_Randall_77_Sunset_Strip_1964.JPG

    Replies: @songbird

    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip”

    Honestly, never heard of that one.

    One of my favorite old shows, used to be Bonanza, the first show or one of the first shows to be shot fully in color. Haven’t seen it in ages. I guess it was often pretty hokey, but I feel like it had an ambition, and it appeals to me how it was a show with a paterfamilias. I definitely feel like it had something of the spirit of the ’50s or earlier, even though it went on into the ’70s.

    Must have been pretty popular. I have heard of Germans who knew about it, and it had nearly half a thousand episodes.

    I also appreciate some of the old episodes of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone. But only the good ones. Many of the others are sad or depressing and don’t resonate with me.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @songbird

    BTW, just remembered another cool part of the show Bonanza:

    IIRC, the three very different sons (differing even in looks) were all born to different mothers (who died), which really highlights the idea of heritability.

    I don't want to say that it was an awesome show. I am sure it had a lot of terrible episodes, but I do like some of the ideas behind it. How it was about the pioneering spirit and wealth derived from land, about courage.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Keypusher
    @songbird

    There is a new show, Yellowstone, with Kevin Costner as the paterfamilias. Set in modern Montana. You should check it out.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    I tried to locate some old segments of "77 Sunset Strip" last night on youtube, but there really weren't any to be found. There are little teaser segments from 1 - 3 minutes long, but no whole segments. Anyway, based on your viewing tastes, you would probably enjoy "One Step Beyond" too. Then there are some of my very favorite shows from that era produced by Alfred Hitchcock. He produced weekly shows for about 6 years. The first four years were half an hour segments and the program was called "Alfred Hitchcock Presents". The last two years he expanded his show to a one hour format and slightly changed the name to (what else) "The Alfred Hitchcock Hour". It was fun to watch and you could often see great established artists take a role, and also aspiring talent that would someday become well know film artists.

  798. @AP
    @songbird


    Pretty well debunks the Latin American argument, which in terms of population is the vast majority of your argument.
     
    Natives did better in places where they encountered Catholics and Orthodox than in places where they ran into the English.

    Of course, you will just retreat to Quebec, another totally different climatic and geographic zone
     
    Well, every place has its particular geography and climate. So either it's a complete coincidence that the places settled by French, Spanish and Russians just happened to have geography and climate conducive to Native survival in comparison to those settled by the English, or the English Protestants behaved worse towards Natives than did all of those others. Your reference to Peruvian lung capacity, woods in Quebec (no woods in English lands?) etc. are just kind of desperate.

    And instead construct a marxist argument
     
    Marxist argument? LOL.

    Tell me again how a critique of nationalism, which destroyed the conservative order and ushered in more evil things that followed, is a leftist thing.

    meant to delegitimize ethnic core Americans and their history
     
    A bit sensitive about this, aren't you? I don't compromise when it comes to the truth, which is that the English were worse than anyone else in North America with respect to their treatment of the natives whose lands they conquered. The Spaniards were the best.

    Replies: @songbird

    and Orthodox

    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease. An extremely powerful factor, obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of history or biology. It has shown up at least a hundred times in US history alone, (building of the Panama Canal, invasion of Cuba in the Spanish-American war, the defense of Bataan, Teddy Roosevelt’s journey in Brazil, etc, etc, ad nauseam.)

    [MORE]

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive? Even Jared Diamond, whose father was born in Chișinău, Moldova, and, who claims that we are all Untermenschen compared to Papuans, accepts the differential impact of disease.

    Thought you were in the healthcare field. You are really going to disclaim any knowledge of heritable adaptations to disease? (Something even an administrator should know?) When sickle cell is a common prenatal test? And you are really going to assert that hypoxia doesn’t make it dramatically more difficult to carry a pregnancy to term? That genetic adaptations to hypoxia (some of which have nothing to do with lung capacity) don’t make healthy babies dramatically easier?

    Do you know that Tibetans got their altitude adaptations from the Denisovans, who inhabited the Tibetan plateau for hundreds of thousands of years before humans arrived? That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog? And therefore your professed ignorance on matters known widely and commonly in that sphere is highly grating?

    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves that lived on the Tibetan Plateau?
    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/12/11/tibetan-mastiff/

    Charitably, I suspect that you must be someone with zero interest in HBD, and low interest in non-deconstructive history outside of Eastern Europe. Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine. And probably I am a little slow for only catching on now.

    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    BTW, I really appreciate your interesting eccentricity. You bring your A-game, and made the rest of us look like posers. Maybe, I should up my game, and demand the same and opposite thing for Ireland.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
    @songbird


    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    Replies: @songbird, @German_reader, @AP

    , @AP
    @songbird


    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease.
     
    Lots of desperate excuse making to avoid the obvious: New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement. Either it was a series of very remarkable coincidences that this happened to be so due to particular geographical differences or evolutionary differences between subpopulations, or Catholicism and Orthodoxy simply provided for more humane worldviews. Occam's razor tells us it is the latter.

    That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?
     
    Denisovians in Tibet 10,000s of years ago don't matter with respect to why New World natives had it better when the Spaniards or the French arrived, compared to when the English Calvinists came, in the New World.

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog
     
    I've been commenting on Karlin's blog from before he came to Unz. It was called da Russophile.

    But you reminded us that HBD is often misused like a type of Just So stories. So American Natives lived better in places where the Spaniards arrived rather than in places where the Anglo-Saxons came because those particular Indians had different genetic traits that happened to coincide with the group of conquerors. The parts of India that had been ruled by Portugal are nicer than former British ones not because Portuguese rule was more humane than British rule but because Goans had different genes, right?


    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves
     
    You are so desperate to avoid the obvious conclusions about Anglo-Saxon Protestant behavior towards natives in the New World that you are even bringing Tibetan dogs into the discussion. Lol.

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive?
     
    You sound like you've been traumatized by the modern American educational system. I barely even know what "deconstructed" means, this became common after I finished university. I seems to be a further devolution of thought and morality, the same road as nationalism but more "advanced." But I haven't had the patience or time to waste on postmodern tracts so I might not be accurate.

    while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    ????

    Countries shouldn't invade other countries for nationalistic reasons or many other reasons, and if they do they should be punished - in Russia's case by having Ukraine be deadly for Russia. Not sure how this is "universal Ukrainian nationalism."


    Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine
     
    I have an affinity for Ukraine but it is a non-nationalistic one, to the extent that it is possible for someone living in the modern world. Ukraine like other places has not been helped much by nationalism. But Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine is certainly a much lesser evil than is Russian nationalism for Ukraine. It is useful now, in order to prevent Russian nationalists from taking over the country.

    Europe began its descent when Europeans abandoned monarchy, aristocracy and Church in favor of self-worship. Literally, idolatry which we were warned about. This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy), continued with worship of our Nations (nationalism), Class (Socialism and Communism), and finally base physical needs (modern hedonistic consumerism). It's all a long road downward.

    Periodic repost of a nice passage by the French author Celine about Nationalist "Progress" in Europe and what it meant as Europe self-destructed with its nationalist idiocy, when with the aid of nationalist propaganda stuffed into their minds people turned away from worshipping God and instead worshipped aspects of themselves such as the language they spoke and their kin ("nations"):


    It’s the philosophers . . . another point to look out for while we’re at it … who first started giving the people ideas . . , when all they’d known up until then was the catechism! They began, so they proclaimed, to educate the people . . . Ah! What truths they had to reveal! Beautiful! brilliant! unprecedented truths! And the people were dazzled! That’s it! they said. That’s the stuff! Let’s go and die for it! The people are always dying to die! That’s the way they are! ‘Long live Diderot!’ they yelled. And ‘Long live Voltaire!’ ….And long live everybody! Those guys at least don’t let the beloved people molder in ignorance and fetishism! They show the people the roads of Freedom! Emancipation! Things went fast after that! First teach everybody to read the papers! That’s the way to salvation! Hurry hurry! No more illiterates! We don’t need them anymore! Nothing but citizen-soldiers! Who vote! Who read! And who fight! And who march! And send kisses from the front! In no time the people were good and ripe! The enthusiasm of the liberated has to be good for something, doesn’t it? Danton wasn’t eloquent for the hell of it. With a few phrases, so rousing that we can still hear them today, he had the people mobilized before you could say fiddlesticks! That was when the first battalions of emancipated maniacs marched off! … the first voting, flagmatic suckers that Dumouriez led away to get themselves drilled full of holes in Flanders!… The free-gratis soldier . . . was something really new … So new that when Goethe arrived in Valmy… he was flabbergasted. At the sight of those ragged, impassioned cohorts, who had come of their own free will to get themselves disemboweled by the King of Prussia in defense of a patriotic fiction no one had ever heard of, Goethe realized that he still had much to learn. This day,’ he declaimed grandiloquently as befitted the habits of his genius, ‘marks the beginning of a new era!’ He could say that again! The system proved successful . . . pretty soon they were mass-producing heroes, and in the end, the system was so well perfected that they cost practically nothing. Everyone was delighted. Bismarck, the two Napoleons, Barrès, Elsa the Horsewoman. The religion of the flag promptly replaced the cult of heaven, an old cloud which had already been deflated by the Reformation and reduced to a network of episcopal money boxes. In olden times the fanatical fashion was: ‘Long live Jesus! Burn the heretics!’ . . . But heretics, after all, were few and voluntary . . . Whereas today vast hordes of men are fired with aim and purpose by cries of: ‘Hang the limp turnips! The juiceless lemons! The innocent readers! By the millions, eyes right!’ … Let whole legions of them perish, turn into smidgens, bleed, smolder in acid—and all that to make the Patrie more beloved, more fair, and more joyful! ”

     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird, @Ron Unz

  799. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip”
     
    Honestly, never heard of that one.

    One of my favorite old shows, used to be Bonanza, the first show or one of the first shows to be shot fully in color. Haven't seen it in ages. I guess it was often pretty hokey, but I feel like it had an ambition, and it appeals to me how it was a show with a paterfamilias. I definitely feel like it had something of the spirit of the '50s or earlier, even though it went on into the '70s.

    Must have been pretty popular. I have heard of Germans who knew about it, and it had nearly half a thousand episodes.

    I also appreciate some of the old episodes of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone. But only the good ones. Many of the others are sad or depressing and don't resonate with me.

    Replies: @songbird, @Keypusher, @Mr. Hack

    BTW, just remembered another cool part of the show Bonanza:

    IIRC, the three very different sons (differing even in looks) were all born to different mothers (who died), which really highlights the idea of heritability.

    I don’t want to say that it was an awesome show. I am sure it had a lot of terrible episodes, but I do like some of the ideas behind it. How it was about the pioneering spirit and wealth derived from land, about courage.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    "Bonanza" was one of the finer TV western shows of the era (another one was called "Gunsmoke"). It portrayed the good white family (minus mom) making a successful go of it on the tough western frontier, somewhere like in Montana or Wyoming. The father figure, Ben Cartwright, was the epitome of a wholesome figure who was always fair with whomever he had to deal with. People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys. As a little kid, I always seemed to view him as a kind of American saintly man. The stories could be somewhat brawny, but overall good family fair to watch. Nothing out there today that compares.

    Replies: @songbird

  800. Croatian “mercenary” captured by the Russians, Englis-speaking.

  801. @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    They were modernizing with French assistance.

    This was happening under the agency of the Marathas themselves.They actively sought French expertise and paid very lucrative salaries to French experts.

    They defeated the British in the first Anglo Maratha war.

    Had a quasi civil war not broken out in the Maratha Empire between the first and second Anglo Maratha wars they would have modernized their army enough to win the second Anglo Maratha war and likely end the British political presence in India by the late 18th century.

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Yellowface Anon, @Coconuts

    The European takeover of the subcontinent was not inevitable the Portuguese,Dutch,French all previously tried and failed to expand beyond their small trading enclaves.

    But the French, British and Dutch also all fought against each other in India. French expansion was curtailed by British activities, and the French acted to threaten British interests.

  802. @songbird
    @AP


    and Orthodox
     
    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease. An extremely powerful factor, obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of history or biology. It has shown up at least a hundred times in US history alone, (building of the Panama Canal, invasion of Cuba in the Spanish-American war, the defense of Bataan, Teddy Roosevelt's journey in Brazil, etc, etc, ad nauseam.)

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn't deconstructive? Even Jared Diamond, whose father was born in Chișinău, Moldova, and, who claims that we are all Untermenschen compared to Papuans, accepts the differential impact of disease.

    Thought you were in the healthcare field. You are really going to disclaim any knowledge of heritable adaptations to disease? (Something even an administrator should know?) When sickle cell is a common prenatal test? And you are really going to assert that hypoxia doesn't make it dramatically more difficult to carry a pregnancy to term? That genetic adaptations to hypoxia (some of which have nothing to do with lung capacity) don't make healthy babies dramatically easier?

    Do you know that Tibetans got their altitude adaptations from the Denisovans, who inhabited the Tibetan plateau for hundreds of thousands of years before humans arrived? That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don't matter?

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog? And therefore your professed ignorance on matters known widely and commonly in that sphere is highly grating?

    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves that lived on the Tibetan Plateau?
    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/12/11/tibetan-mastiff/

    Charitably, I suspect that you must be someone with zero interest in HBD, and low interest in non-deconstructive history outside of Eastern Europe. Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine. And probably I am a little slow for only catching on now.

    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically ("WWI was caused by nationalism"), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    BTW, I really appreciate your interesting eccentricity. You bring your A-game, and made the rest of us look like posers. Maybe, I should up my game, and demand the same and opposite thing for Ireland.

    Replies: @Coconuts, @AP

    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    • Agree: songbird, PhysicistDave
    • Replies: @songbird
    @Coconuts

    The UK actually had race riots in 1919.

    And the occupation of the Rhineland was done at least partly with a lot of very alien troops.

    , @German_reader
    @Coconuts

    Imperial Germany had minorities, but could be seen as fundamentally a nation state. One factor why Germany didn't annex Russian Poland during WW1 (apart from talk about a "border strip", from which the Polish population would have been forcibly removed), instead opting for creating a Polish satellite state, was that German policy-makers didn't want any more Poles in the Reich, it was incompatible with their vision of a homogenous nation state.
    Serbia of course had expansionist aims that were rooted in nationalism, as did Italy. And France wanted Alsace-Lorraine back. So attributing WW1 to nationalism may be a bit simplistic, but it's not totally wrong either.

    , @AP
    @Coconuts


    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.
     
    Of these, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires were pre-nationalistic Empires and were not coincidentally the least guilty. Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism. The war began when a Serbian nationalist linked to the Serb nationalist government murdered the Austro-Hungarian crown prince/future head of state. A-H's ultimatum and subsequent invasion of Serbia were justified. The others were motivated by nationalism. Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current. The French motivated by nationalist resentment at the loss of Alsace-Lorraine had no brakes.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Coconuts

  803. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip”
     
    Honestly, never heard of that one.

    One of my favorite old shows, used to be Bonanza, the first show or one of the first shows to be shot fully in color. Haven't seen it in ages. I guess it was often pretty hokey, but I feel like it had an ambition, and it appeals to me how it was a show with a paterfamilias. I definitely feel like it had something of the spirit of the '50s or earlier, even though it went on into the '70s.

    Must have been pretty popular. I have heard of Germans who knew about it, and it had nearly half a thousand episodes.

    I also appreciate some of the old episodes of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone. But only the good ones. Many of the others are sad or depressing and don't resonate with me.

    Replies: @songbird, @Keypusher, @Mr. Hack

    There is a new show, Yellowstone, with Kevin Costner as the paterfamilias. Set in modern Montana. You should check it out.

    • Thanks: songbird
  804. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Sorry, I don't buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war's supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those "superficial changes" will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia's atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries "ignoring" other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not "ignoring" and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine's behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let's all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can't be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Sean, @PhysicistDave, @awry

    Triteleia Laxa wrote to Sean:

    If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are…

    Oh, yeah, cause that’s what always happens when a Great Power uses nuclear weapons!

    I mean, when the USA nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki (despite the fact that Japan was already in ruins from conventional bombing), the “world community” immediately ostracized the USA!

    I mean, it was decades before the USA was accepted again among civilized nations!

    I am remembering history correctly, right?

    You are so amusing… in kinda a cute but dumb way.

    I do hope you are getting paid to spew out this propaganda for the US Deep State.

    Or are you one of those who gives it away for free?

    • LOL: Mikhail
  805. @Coconuts
    @songbird


    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    Replies: @songbird, @German_reader, @AP

    The UK actually had race riots in 1919.

    And the occupation of the Rhineland was done at least partly with a lot of very alien troops.

  806. Svetlichnoye taken by forces of Lugansk People’s Republic. Generally speaking the Ukrainian forces in Lugansk seem weaker than those in Donetsk.

  807. @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon


    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?
     
    That is the traditional nuclear war that people concluded would lead to MAD,. it's unrealistic yet all of the theoretical counter moves and ways of deterring first use have been thought about so much it is very unlikely to happen. I think those arguing against the possibility of any non-test thermonuclear detonation understand how unlike the aforementioned and much-studied scenarios the current situation is. Basically the expertise concerns a Russian turbo steamroller that is winning battles and has advancing by leaps and bounds conventionally when Nato nukes its spearheads. I happen to think that with what Ukraine has been given in the way of artillery (long range counter battery and even Excalibur shells which arw pinpoint accurate)), and their numbers of troops being greater in Donbass that is being admitted by Western experts ,Russia is going to be inexorably pushed back. Yet no one is talking about that because the Russians failing conventionally against a non nuclear non Nato power they can use a nuke against to stop a rout is not a schemata they have been trained to work with.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon

    My preferred form of war is where civilian assets are protected, in other words not Total. Medieval peasants continue toiling in fields while armies fought on (on agricultural land none less, but the damage isn’t deliberate).

  808. Noticed an old paper about treating gender dysphoria with small doses of antipsychotics (as in to stop the abnormal urges), and the one doctor was a Sikh and the other was warrior-caste.

    But that was an old paper, from 26 years ago, way before World War T, so probably just a coincidence.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    In the 1950's at top research hospitals like Tulane U they did electric shock aversion therapy to cure homosexuality. Like they did Alex in Clockwork Orange. Head of the neurology department in 1995 had done a bunch of them. He left those publications off his CV by then though.

  809. German_reader says:
    @Coconuts
    @songbird


    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    Replies: @songbird, @German_reader, @AP

    Imperial Germany had minorities, but could be seen as fundamentally a nation state. One factor why Germany didn’t annex Russian Poland during WW1 (apart from talk about a “border strip”, from which the Polish population would have been forcibly removed), instead opting for creating a Polish satellite state, was that German policy-makers didn’t want any more Poles in the Reich, it was incompatible with their vision of a homogenous nation state.
    Serbia of course had expansionist aims that were rooted in nationalism, as did Italy. And France wanted Alsace-Lorraine back. So attributing WW1 to nationalism may be a bit simplistic, but it’s not totally wrong either.

  810. AP says:
    @Sean
    @AP


    Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.
     
    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting. As a result the Ukrainian population and infrastucture has been decimated. Some room for improvement there because goverments are elected to prevent invasions rather that fighting them, no?

    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine’s people didn’t want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.
     
    They did not think Putin was serious. It is only a few months since Zelensky publicly told Biden to stop talking about an invasion. Counting on America, Ukraine simply underestimated Russian willpower and decisiveness. They are paying dearly for it, and will not stop paying for decades to come.

    Replies: @AP

    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting.

    It can do more about the former than about the latter. Large foreign countries covet Ukrainian land.

    They did not think Putin was serious.

    This is doubtful, behind the scenes. It turns out that the Ukrainian military were relatively well prepared for this invasion.

    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to – no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces. The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood. Historically this has been the fate, sooner or later, of all small nations bordering Russia. Is it about all these small nations being bad at preventing invasions, or about Russia itself?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP


    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to – no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces
     
    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato. But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato. Zelensky seemed amenable to such a resolution, but the integral nationalist climate of opinion whipped up by Poroshenko since 2004 was too opposed.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood
     
    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them. Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia. There was no choice that did not lead to war?


    https://www.traditionalright.com/playing-with-nuclear-war-and-some-advice-for-my-friends-in-sweden/
    A deal could look something like this:

    Ukraine sells the portions of Luhansk and Donetsk that had already declared their independence to Russia, along with a narrow land corridor connecting them to Crimea (which remains Russian). The price is high enough to make a substantial contribution to re-building Ukraine.

    Ukraine agrees not to join NATO unless Russia also joins. That would leave open the door to the alliance Christendom needs, one running from the U.S. Pacific coast to the Russian Pacific coast, oriented south.

    Russia agrees to Ukraine joining the EU.

    Russia cedes East Prussia (the “Kaliningrad Oblast”) to Ukraine, giving Ukraine a Baltic as well as a Black Sea outlet for her grain exports. Russia also funds building a new, high capacity railway, not running through Belarus, connecting Ukraine with the East Prussian port of Konigsberg.

    What does Ukraine think of all this? It doesn’t matter. In true Bismarkian style, the great powers make the deal and inform the smaller powers what they are going to do. Otherwise, no deal is possible in cases such as this
     
    .

    Replies: @AP

  811. @songbird
    Noticed an old paper about treating gender dysphoria with small doses of antipsychotics (as in to stop the abnormal urges), and the one doctor was a Sikh and the other was warrior-caste.

    But that was an old paper, from 26 years ago, way before World War T, so probably just a coincidence.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    In the 1950’s at top research hospitals like Tulane U they did electric shock aversion therapy to cure homosexuality. Like they did Alex in Clockwork Orange. Head of the neurology department in 1995 had done a bunch of them. He left those publications off his CV by then though.

  812. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Did you or your aunt also watch the original campy and super cool TV detective show “77 Sunset Strip”
     
    Honestly, never heard of that one.

    One of my favorite old shows, used to be Bonanza, the first show or one of the first shows to be shot fully in color. Haven't seen it in ages. I guess it was often pretty hokey, but I feel like it had an ambition, and it appeals to me how it was a show with a paterfamilias. I definitely feel like it had something of the spirit of the '50s or earlier, even though it went on into the '70s.

    Must have been pretty popular. I have heard of Germans who knew about it, and it had nearly half a thousand episodes.

    I also appreciate some of the old episodes of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone. But only the good ones. Many of the others are sad or depressing and don't resonate with me.

    Replies: @songbird, @Keypusher, @Mr. Hack

    I tried to locate some old segments of “77 Sunset Strip” last night on youtube, but there really weren’t any to be found. There are little teaser segments from 1 – 3 minutes long, but no whole segments. Anyway, based on your viewing tastes, you would probably enjoy “One Step Beyond” too. Then there are some of my very favorite shows from that era produced by Alfred Hitchcock. He produced weekly shows for about 6 years. The first four years were half an hour segments and the program was called “Alfred Hitchcock Presents”. The last two years he expanded his show to a one hour format and slightly changed the name to (what else) “The Alfred Hitchcock Hour”. It was fun to watch and you could often see great established artists take a role, and also aspiring talent that would someday become well know film artists.

  813. AP says:
    @Coconuts
    @songbird


    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically (“WWI was caused by nationalism”), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    Replies: @songbird, @German_reader, @AP

    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.

    Of these, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires were pre-nationalistic Empires and were not coincidentally the least guilty. Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism. The war began when a Serbian nationalist linked to the Serb nationalist government murdered the Austro-Hungarian crown prince/future head of state. A-H’s ultimatum and subsequent invasion of Serbia were justified. The others were motivated by nationalism. Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current. The French motivated by nationalist resentment at the loss of Alsace-Lorraine had no brakes.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @AP


    Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current.
     
    I've read a couple of historians claiming WWI was the first major conflict where incipient mass literacy among the advanced Western nations coincided with the emergence of tabloid/sensationalist newspapers. That combination made passions swell to a much greater - and uncontrollable - extent than had been in previous eras. WWI was the first "media war".

    Replies: @AP

    , @Coconuts
    @AP


    Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism.
     
    This is correct, but Nationalism has multiple different meanings. Right-wing French monarchist nationalists like Action Francaise were eager to fight Germany to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine, but had no interest in Republican nationalist projects of incorporating the world into a French Liberal civilisation. Britain joined the war to protect its empire and its nationalistic, but simultaneously universalist, project of expanding Anglo-Liberalism throughout the world. I don't know about Russia, was this another case of trying to incorporate many different ethnic groups and peoples into a single 'Russian' civilisation?

    Contemporary Nationalism means something closer to what the French monarchists were talking about, or Irish nationalism, Lithuanian nationalism, Ukrainian etc. These were more orientated towards preservation of a particular ethnic group and its state, or giving an ethnic group its own political presence and expression.

    This is why the claim that WW1 was caused by nationalism, when it is said nowadays, seems strange. It at least requires some clarification of what brand of nationalism is being referred to.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  814. @songbird
    @songbird

    BTW, just remembered another cool part of the show Bonanza:

    IIRC, the three very different sons (differing even in looks) were all born to different mothers (who died), which really highlights the idea of heritability.

    I don't want to say that it was an awesome show. I am sure it had a lot of terrible episodes, but I do like some of the ideas behind it. How it was about the pioneering spirit and wealth derived from land, about courage.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    “Bonanza” was one of the finer TV western shows of the era (another one was called “Gunsmoke”). It portrayed the good white family (minus mom) making a successful go of it on the tough western frontier, somewhere like in Montana or Wyoming. The father figure, Ben Cartwright, was the epitome of a wholesome figure who was always fair with whomever he had to deal with. People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys. As a little kid, I always seemed to view him as a kind of American saintly man. The stories could be somewhat brawny, but overall good family fair to watch. Nothing out there today that compares.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Anyway, based on your viewing tastes, you would probably enjoy “One Step Beyond” too.
     
    Thanks for the recommendation.

    Then there are some of my very favorite shows from that era produced by Alfred Hitchcock. He produced weekly shows for about 6 years.
     
    I saw a Christmas episode, but had no idea that it had gone on that long.

    With Hitchcock, I think he sometimes attached his name to things, without having much to do with them (such as books), but I'll have to see if I can find out more about the show and his involvement in it. I think there were cameos and introductions or something? (I see wiki says he directed 18 episodes out of 361.)

    People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys.
     
    I guess that was one problem with it - that the men were grown and mostly (as in for most of the show) unmarried. I remember an episode when Adam got married, but I think is wife soon died? Not a good natalist example, but I guess it is hard to write for children.

    Don't really remember much of the racial stuff, except for the Chinese cook. I think fair treatment of the Indians was pretty par for the course, when it came to TV Westerns. In the Lone Ranger, I believe Indians were never the villain, unless maybe they were influenced by bad whites. And I can really sympathize with that viewpoint, even though it might be a bit ahistorical, as, sometimes, it seems to be in poor taste to pile on a defeated people.

    Regarding blacks, I don't remember when they appeared. Though, some of those old shows (Happy Days, Bewitched), IMO, often had one really obnoxious episode nakedly promoting anti-racism.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  815. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind.
     
    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn't it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?

    The American leaders making such threats haven't been top officials, but surely those aren't the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.

    And don't forget the public calls for Putin's assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?

    Replies: @A123, @Yevardian

    And don’t forget the public calls for Putin’s assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?

    Lindsey Graham is a GOP(e) holdover playing out his last act as an elected Republican. His wacky statements (including those about Putin) are an “audition” for Leftoid employment once he heads trough the revolving door into the lobbyist community.

    Few people in this country take him seriously. The most humiliating way that Putin can deal with Lindsey is ignoring his chihuahua like yipping.

    wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation? … The American leaders making such threats haven’t been top officials, but surely those aren’t the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.

    Sending out incredibly junior personnel that have the same gravitas and impact as Lindsey Graham could be done. It is unnecessary, but not problematic. Perhaps a file clerk or the head janitor from the Russian embassy could suggest to the media that Graham’s comments are outside of diplomatic norms.
    ____

    The much stronger statements that Russia has been making, have nothing to do with ineffectual U.S. officials. Instead, it is driven by very enthusiastic support for Ukraine coming from credible, Polish elected leadership.

    It is an unsubtle reminder that NATO is a *defensive* pact. If Poland takes major *offensive* action, such as sending large numbers of Polish military units into Ukraine, they effectively forego NATO protection. France, UK, and the U.S. do not want to be dragged into a nuclear exchange because Polish leadership acted unilaterally. Presumably, the senior NATO command structure is clarifying to Poland’s military leadership the actions that will not be supported.

    PEACE 😇

  816. @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CqGeAmVu1I

    You should look at this time lapse of ww2 in Europe and North Africa. The scale of the Russian mobilization after Barbarossa was extraordinary.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Thanks, that’s a great visual summary of what WWII was really like: a massive attack by almost all of Europe on Russia. A fourth or fifth one in the last few hundred years, from Napoleon to Hitler, to now some “Truss” lady with bad teeth. They can’t help themselves.

    It is always a bloody mess, because: the resources. And because many start hysterically hating anything Russian. Look up Napoleon, Napoleon III, Crimean war, WWI and WWII propaganda – it is always the same: a fast descent into we are saving the civilization against savage murderous mongrels of the east.

    The mongrel race fights back, grudgingly, slowly, at first hesitantly. Then they prevail and the civilized Europeans quickly pretend: “oh, nothing“, “they made us do it“, and “you could had surrendered, we have better toys…” Escapist BS of infantile minds.

    In quick succession West goes from aggression to denial, from open hatred to contrition. They walk away from their bloody deeds like they always do around the world.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Beckow

    It is indistinguishable from demonic possession.

    Maybe aliens.

    Replies: @Beckow

  817. AP says:
    @songbird
    @AP


    and Orthodox
     
    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease. An extremely powerful factor, obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of history or biology. It has shown up at least a hundred times in US history alone, (building of the Panama Canal, invasion of Cuba in the Spanish-American war, the defense of Bataan, Teddy Roosevelt's journey in Brazil, etc, etc, ad nauseam.)

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn't deconstructive? Even Jared Diamond, whose father was born in Chișinău, Moldova, and, who claims that we are all Untermenschen compared to Papuans, accepts the differential impact of disease.

    Thought you were in the healthcare field. You are really going to disclaim any knowledge of heritable adaptations to disease? (Something even an administrator should know?) When sickle cell is a common prenatal test? And you are really going to assert that hypoxia doesn't make it dramatically more difficult to carry a pregnancy to term? That genetic adaptations to hypoxia (some of which have nothing to do with lung capacity) don't make healthy babies dramatically easier?

    Do you know that Tibetans got their altitude adaptations from the Denisovans, who inhabited the Tibetan plateau for hundreds of thousands of years before humans arrived? That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don't matter?

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog? And therefore your professed ignorance on matters known widely and commonly in that sphere is highly grating?

    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves that lived on the Tibetan Plateau?
    https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/12/11/tibetan-mastiff/

    Charitably, I suspect that you must be someone with zero interest in HBD, and low interest in non-deconstructive history outside of Eastern Europe. Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine. And probably I am a little slow for only catching on now.

    I might add that there is nothing wrong with nationalism, per say, depending on the case basis, the individual and the outputs, but it does seem really strange, when you denounce it wholesale and ahistorically ("WWI was caused by nationalism"), while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    BTW, I really appreciate your interesting eccentricity. You bring your A-game, and made the rest of us look like posers. Maybe, I should up my game, and demand the same and opposite thing for Ireland.

    Replies: @Coconuts, @AP

    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease.

    Lots of desperate excuse making to avoid the obvious: New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement. Either it was a series of very remarkable coincidences that this happened to be so due to particular geographical differences or evolutionary differences between subpopulations, or Catholicism and Orthodoxy simply provided for more humane worldviews. Occam’s razor tells us it is the latter.

    That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?

    Denisovians in Tibet 10,000s of years ago don’t matter with respect to why New World natives had it better when the Spaniards or the French arrived, compared to when the English Calvinists came, in the New World.

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog

    I’ve been commenting on Karlin’s blog from before he came to Unz. It was called da Russophile.

    But you reminded us that HBD is often misused like a type of Just So stories. So American Natives lived better in places where the Spaniards arrived rather than in places where the Anglo-Saxons came because those particular Indians had different genetic traits that happened to coincide with the group of conquerors. The parts of India that had been ruled by Portugal are nicer than former British ones not because Portuguese rule was more humane than British rule but because Goans had different genes, right?

    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves

    You are so desperate to avoid the obvious conclusions about Anglo-Saxon Protestant behavior towards natives in the New World that you are even bringing Tibetan dogs into the discussion. Lol.

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive?

    You sound like you’ve been traumatized by the modern American educational system. I barely even know what “deconstructed” means, this became common after I finished university. I seems to be a further devolution of thought and morality, the same road as nationalism but more “advanced.” But I haven’t had the patience or time to waste on postmodern tracts so I might not be accurate.

    while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.

    ????

    Countries shouldn’t invade other countries for nationalistic reasons or many other reasons, and if they do they should be punished – in Russia’s case by having Ukraine be deadly for Russia. Not sure how this is “universal Ukrainian nationalism.”

    Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine

    I have an affinity for Ukraine but it is a non-nationalistic one, to the extent that it is possible for someone living in the modern world. Ukraine like other places has not been helped much by nationalism. But Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine is certainly a much lesser evil than is Russian nationalism for Ukraine. It is useful now, in order to prevent Russian nationalists from taking over the country.

    Europe began its descent when Europeans abandoned monarchy, aristocracy and Church in favor of self-worship. Literally, idolatry which we were warned about. This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy), continued with worship of our Nations (nationalism), Class (Socialism and Communism), and finally base physical needs (modern hedonistic consumerism). It’s all a long road downward.

    Periodic repost of a nice passage by the French author Celine about Nationalist “Progress” in Europe and what it meant as Europe self-destructed with its nationalist idiocy, when with the aid of nationalist propaganda stuffed into their minds people turned away from worshipping God and instead worshipped aspects of themselves such as the language they spoke and their kin (“nations”):

    [MORE]

    It’s the philosophers . . . another point to look out for while we’re at it … who first started giving the people ideas . . , when all they’d known up until then was the catechism! They began, so they proclaimed, to educate the people . . . Ah! What truths they had to reveal! Beautiful! brilliant! unprecedented truths! And the people were dazzled! That’s it! they said. That’s the stuff! Let’s go and die for it! The people are always dying to die! That’s the way they are! ‘Long live Diderot!’ they yelled. And ‘Long live Voltaire!’ ….And long live everybody! Those guys at least don’t let the beloved people molder in ignorance and fetishism! They show the people the roads of Freedom! Emancipation! Things went fast after that! First teach everybody to read the papers! That’s the way to salvation! Hurry hurry! No more illiterates! We don’t need them anymore! Nothing but citizen-soldiers! Who vote! Who read! And who fight! And who march! And send kisses from the front! In no time the people were good and ripe! The enthusiasm of the liberated has to be good for something, doesn’t it? Danton wasn’t eloquent for the hell of it. With a few phrases, so rousing that we can still hear them today, he had the people mobilized before you could say fiddlesticks! That was when the first battalions of emancipated maniacs marched off! … the first voting, flagmatic suckers that Dumouriez led away to get themselves drilled full of holes in Flanders!… The free-gratis soldier . . . was something really new … So new that when Goethe arrived in Valmy… he was flabbergasted. At the sight of those ragged, impassioned cohorts, who had come of their own free will to get themselves disemboweled by the King of Prussia in defense of a patriotic fiction no one had ever heard of, Goethe realized that he still had much to learn. This day,’ he declaimed grandiloquently as befitted the habits of his genius, ‘marks the beginning of a new era!’ He could say that again! The system proved successful . . . pretty soon they were mass-producing heroes, and in the end, the system was so well perfected that they cost practically nothing. Everyone was delighted. Bismarck, the two Napoleons, Barrès, Elsa the Horsewoman. The religion of the flag promptly replaced the cult of heaven, an old cloud which had already been deflated by the Reformation and reduced to a network of episcopal money boxes. In olden times the fanatical fashion was: ‘Long live Jesus! Burn the heretics!’ . . . But heretics, after all, were few and voluntary . . . Whereas today vast hordes of men are fired with aim and purpose by cries of: ‘Hang the limp turnips! The juiceless lemons! The innocent readers! By the millions, eyes right!’ … Let whole legions of them perish, turn into smidgens, bleed, smolder in acid—and all that to make the Patrie more beloved, more fair, and more joyful! ”

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @AP


    This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy)
     
    Protestant countries pulled ahead because we were not encumbered with those worshipping traditions for traditions sake. It was the Protestants who made the earliest and greatest strides in mass literacy (Netherlands, Sweden, England), and it was the Protestants who pushed aside traditionalists claiming that the bible cannot be read in the mother tongue. A laughable proposition these days, but this was the hill that the trads were willing to die on.

    Today, Catholicism is dying and it is Protestantism that is conquering not only Africa but even Latinx America, particularly Brasil. Ironically enough, Protestantism has both been a force for liberal change when required and now is at the vanguard of a more conservative turn whereas Pope Francis is mostly indistinguishable from your local SJW.

    Catholicm had an early lead but Protestantism is cannibalising it precisely because it is the more vital of the two. Orthodox Christianity is static; it has avoided the freefall that befell Catholicism but it shows none of the dynamism in winning new hearts and minds (or converting other Christians) that Protestantism, especially the Evangelical kind, does. In the fight of Christianty vs Islam, it will be Evangelical Protestantism that will be bringing the heavy artillery to the fight. Catholicism will shrivel away and die in a corner.
    , @songbird
    @AP


    Occam’s razor tells us it is the latter.
     
    Not Occam, but the axe you are grinding.

    That makes you shotgun blast ridiculous ideas at me, and then not concede an inch, even on your most ridiculous ones. Here's some of what you would seem to have us believe:

    1.) reports of ancient cities in Peru and Mexico, do not suggest higher population density at different latitudes
    2.) 700 years or less, after corn was introduced in Northern latitudes, it must have had the same yield as the places where it was grown for thousands of years.
    3.) the potato is not a remarkable, high yield crop that dramatically increases population density everywhere it can be grown.
    4.) people in the Caucuses had no advantages over Amerinds in the New World.
    5.) no analogies can be drawn between the Andes and Tibet.
    6.) no facts of biology can be uncovered by looking at different breeds of dogs
    7.) the bronze age warriors who took the southern route of conquest in Europe must have been much, much nicer guys than the same guys who took the northern route. Because there was less genetic turnover in the South. It had nothing to do with crop yields at different latitudes, and how that effects population density.

    I could go on, but I won't.

    If your model is so deeply flawed that you cannot concede any of these things, then it is pretty obvious that you cannot concede that there is a chance you just might possibly have a poor model for Quebec.

    Jousting with an eccentric is fun, but not when he has an axe to grind, that is about status-seeking for his groups (Catholics/Slavs), and status-eroding for another (WASPs).

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Ron Unz
    @AP


    New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement.
     
    I really don't think that's correct. The biggest difference was that the Amerinds of North America were few in number, with many of them being hunter-gatherers, while the Aztec and Incan Amerinds were gigantic, massively populated civilizations, so there were more of them around after European diseases wiped out 90-95%. The relative numbers were probably something like 20-to-1 or so.

    Another factor was that the Spaniards brought few women, leading to the heavily mestizoization of the surviving population.
  818. @Beckow
    @Triteleia Laxa

    More your write, more incoherent you get. Is it the fear of losing? To rational observers so far Russia is winning. Your hysterical focus on minutia and wishful thinking changes nothing. Same with the ever more sad and infantile Mr. Hack.


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb. That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    That is a very stupid statement. It would be the end of a lot more: Ukraine, Europe, US, etc...Do you think if they drop one, they wouldn't drop more? Based on what? But I agree that as of now, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. If you start marching on Moscow they may.

    Russia would therefore be hated beyond all current imagining.
     
    Not really possible, the current Western hatred is at level that would be hard to elevate. For example, your hatred of Russia would be reaffirmed, but effectively be about the same.

    “other side”
     
    There is already no "other side" presented in the West. So, again, how would it be different?

    I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    They won't use nukes and they won't withdraw either: it would be sentencing millions of Russian Ukrainians to death. Russia can't do it anymore than France would allow 4 million Walloons to be expelled or killed, or the Irish Republic with the Catholic Irish in Ulster. It is not a choice, it is something any nation has to do - to protect its own. If West was willing to compromise like having an autonomy and neutrality we would not be where we are today.

    Circa regna tonat. These are dangerous times and your unhinged rhetoric doesn't help. Try not to skip your pills, it may calm you down.

    Replies: @AP, @Wielgus, @Mr. Hack

    More of my “sad” and “infantile” wishful thinking coming true:

    Thank you Slovakia!

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    You are welcome. Are you going to fly them yourself? You know, they are 40 years old and were "maintained" by a few goat herders in between drinks. So yes, that is again both quite sad and infantile. Symbolism means very little in an actual war.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    , @Vishnugupta
    @Mr. Hack

    These are downgraded Warsaw pact spec aircraft which haven't been meaningfully upgraded. They can't fire R 77 missiles only obsolete R27.

    The Mig 29 is also the ultimate hangar queen aircraft which needs a massive maintenance train.Good luck getting spares for these.

    This sort of remind me of the movie Lost World where park rangers are sent to fight a rampaging T rex sized dinosaur with non lethal stun weapons and get slaughtered.

    Well at least the Mig 29s come with superb Zvezda ejection seats.

    If the west is serious about arming the Ukrainian airforce they should give them at least Jas 39 Gripens armed with Meteor missiles.These planes are easy to fly can take off from highways can be refueled and rearmed in under 15 mins and have a compact maintenance train. The Meteor missiles and IRIS T AAMs make them formidable air combat planes even 20-30 of these will create serious problems for the Russian airforce over Ukrainian territory.

  819. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far Russia has been winning,
     
    Well, if you look at gain/loss of territory technically Germany was "winning" until sometime in late 1944 when the Soviets finally pushed across the pre-Barbarossa boundary and seized Warsaw. In this war, Russia grabbed a lot of territory, lost about half of what it had grabbed, and has stalled after losing a lot of men and equipment. Russia still has about 75% or so of its prewar combat strength, so it has the means to reconfigure itself and start winning again, its losses have not yet been total or fatal in nature (it has not been broken, as Germany was after the Kursk battle in August 1943) but at the moment it is losing. Germany in early 1943 is a good analogy I think.

    it controls the very strategic Black See coast.
     
    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine's Black Sea coast, it's been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?

    " few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia"

    In other words a few 100,000s would be expelled with many killed in the process.
     

    So you have gone from saying that "millions" of Russians would be killed to saying that some fraction of 100,000s would be killed. Progress. It's not the 1940s, I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after, because if they are Russophiles life would be much better for them in Russia. Just as, if Russia came, millions of Ukrainians would leave for Poland and the West rather than stay behind and live under Moscow, 100,000s of Donbassers would move to Russia rather than stay behind under Kiev. Good for them, and good for Russia which would gain more Slavs.

    But one side doing it is as bad as another one doing it, that’s why an easy obvious compromise that was available till February was what should had been done. And who refused that compromise
     
    There was no compromise offered, only a demand for capitulation. Ukraine's people didn't want it, and are less inclined to bargain now because the other side has revealed itself to be the side of murderers and rapists, whose army is better at committing crimes than it is at fighting.

    Replies: @Sean, @Beckow

    Your robust single-minded enthusiasm is refreshing. I mean that sincerely.

    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on your own mind, massively exaggerate. There is always use for people who live in the moment, lack self-doubt, and fully buy the ideology de jour.

    You have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc…but in retrospect that was a throw-away pose that you had while waiting for the real fight: get the f…ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And: it is for their own good, they will be happier when expelled to Russia.

    A compromise is a dictate, “Ukrainian” people are only ones that you say – a monolithic mass insisting on banning the Russian language, expelling their cousins, and craving Nato bases.

    I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after

    Soon after? You don’t say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or none? Would anyone who can’t pronounce “h” properly be abused, possibly shot? None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred, damn the victims (they asked for it, didn’t they?).

    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, it’s been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?

    Let’s stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol, Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast. Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down. The war is and will be about what happens to Nikolaev-Odessa. So far it looks like Russians have an upper hand there, they are de facto annexing Kherson with minimal resistance by some locals. If history is any guide, they will stay there. If Kiev tries a frontal attack they either win or get massacred. You know the odds.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on what is in your own mind, and massively exaggerate.
     
    More projection. In your very post you mixed up the Azov and Black Seas. And in this discussion you claimed that millions of Russians would be killed by Ukraine.

    I know you have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc
     
    I was never obsessed with these topics, particularly with regard to Ukraine. They aren't a problem in eastern Europe, why should I be? There is something unhealthy about people who are obsessed with LGBT (either to idolize and fetishize them or to cruelly persecute them).

    get the f…ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And, let’s not forget: it is for their own good, they will be happier expelled to Russia.
     
    I have no problems with Russians living in Ukraine, who are willing to adapt to local and native customs. If they are not, then they should be allowed to return to their ancestral homeland. It is big, there is plenty of room for them there, and it is richer than Ukraine. The Russian state has provided plenty of lavish housing for Armenians, it can help their countrymen from Ukraine also.

    So compromise is a dictate
     
    What you called a compromise was a Russian ultimatum that no sovereign country would accept and that Ukraine therefore did not accept.

    Soon after? You don’t say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or maybe none? Would anyone who can’t pronounce “h” properly be abused, possibly shot?
     
    You have a very sick imagination that reflects your inner corruption. You insisted earlier that Ukraine would kill millions of Russians. I guess that is where your mind is.

    None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred
     
    Most Ukrainians want a unilingual Ukraine. Even most Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If an angry minority of Russians don't want it, they should be free to move to Russia. As I had written earlier, specific regions where the majority want Russian such as Crimea or Donetsk ought to be allowed to leave Ukraine also. I supported Crimea's and Donbass leaving Ukraine.

    But now these regions have joined Russia and participated in an assault on Ukraine itself. If (unlikely, but possible) Ukraine manages to grab some or all of these areas, their actions may have consequences. Actions had consequences did for the Sudeten Germans and you liked that, remember? But Sudeten Germans were murdered in large numbers. I oppose that, let the Donbas Russians move to Russia without killing. I am not a monster like you are. Maybe that's why you thought millions of Russians would be killed. It's what you would do, it's what Czechoslovak Communists did and when it comes down to it you are indeed just a Sovok.

    Let’s stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol , Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast.
     
    Is the Baltic Sea part of the North Sea when you argue about it? LOL.

    Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down (google it)
     
    .

    They can be blocked even without territory being seized.

    Replies: @Beckow

  820. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    More of my "sad" and "infantile" wishful thinking coming true:

    https://youtu.be/P7ZWP-9QIho

    Thank you Slovakia!

    Replies: @Beckow, @Vishnugupta

    You are welcome. Are you going to fly them yourself? You know, they are 40 years old and were “maintained” by a few goat herders in between drinks. So yes, that is again both quite sad and infantile. Symbolism means very little in an actual war.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    You know, they are 40 years old and were “maintained” by a few goat herders in between drinks
     
    I know you can't help yourself but lie or exaggerate. Slovak Migs, while not up to the standards of Ukraine's Migs, were upgraded and modernized:

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/allies-of-freedom-slovakia-mulls.html

    The Slovak Air Force officially operates nine single-seat MiG-29AS fighters and two MiG-29UBS trainers out of Sliac air base in Central Slovakia. Only five MiG-29AS' and one MiG-29UBS are currently believed to be operational to meet a minimum requirement for air policing while the Air Force awaits their replacement by 12 single-seat and 2 double-seat F-16V Block 70/72s in 2023. All of Slovakia's MiG-29s were upgraded by RSK MiG to NATO standards between 2005 and 2008 and designated MiG-29AS and MiG-29UBS (S for Slovakia), but otherwise retain their original capabilities from when they were first delivered to Czechoslovakia in the late 1980s.

    Unfortunately, this means the MiG-29AS' are actually less advanced than Ukraine's own 60-strong fleet of MiG-29 9.13s and MiG-29MU1s (an upgraded variant of the MiG-29 9.13), which has thus far suffered at least four (visually confirmed) losses during the 2022 invasion.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    Don't worry. The Ukrainians will get these planes up and running, and put them to good use very soon. You still don't seem to realize how motivated and skillful the Ukrainian military is. They're also scheduled to obtain MIG-29's from Poland and Bulgaria too, somewhere in the neighborhood of just over 100. These aircraft will help the drones etc; in keeping the airways cleared from psychotic Russian air raids.

    It looks like all of your kremlin stooge ranting here has little effect on your fellow countrymen.

    Replies: @Beckow

  821. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP

    Your robust single-minded enthusiasm is refreshing. I mean that sincerely.

    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on your own mind, massively exaggerate. There is always use for people who live in the moment, lack self-doubt, and fully buy the ideology de jour.

    You have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc...but in retrospect that was a throw-away pose that you had while waiting for the real fight: get the f...ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And: it is for their own good, they will be happier when expelled to Russia.

    A compromise is a dictate, "Ukrainian" people are only ones that you say - a monolithic mass insisting on banning the Russian language, expelling their cousins, and craving Nato bases.


    I doubt many would be killed, they would just leave either before the Ukrainians come or soon after
     
    Soon after? You don't say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or none? Would anyone who can't pronounce "h" properly be abused, possibly shot? None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred, damn the victims (they asked for it, didn't they?).

    Russia has only taken one of the three provinces on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, it’s been pinned in Kherson. Have you seen a map?
     
    Let's stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol, Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast. Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down. The war is and will be about what happens to Nikolaev-Odessa. So far it looks like Russians have an upper hand there, they are de facto annexing Kherson with minimal resistance by some locals. If history is any guide, they will stay there. If Kiev tries a frontal attack they either win or get massacred. You know the odds.

    Replies: @AP

    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on what is in your own mind, and massively exaggerate.

    More projection. In your very post you mixed up the Azov and Black Seas. And in this discussion you claimed that millions of Russians would be killed by Ukraine.

    I know you have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc

    I was never obsessed with these topics, particularly with regard to Ukraine. They aren’t a problem in eastern Europe, why should I be? There is something unhealthy about people who are obsessed with LGBT (either to idolize and fetishize them or to cruelly persecute them).

    get the f…ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And, let’s not forget: it is for their own good, they will be happier expelled to Russia.

    I have no problems with Russians living in Ukraine, who are willing to adapt to local and native customs. If they are not, then they should be allowed to return to their ancestral homeland. It is big, there is plenty of room for them there, and it is richer than Ukraine. The Russian state has provided plenty of lavish housing for Armenians, it can help their countrymen from Ukraine also.

    So compromise is a dictate

    What you called a compromise was a Russian ultimatum that no sovereign country would accept and that Ukraine therefore did not accept.

    Soon after? You don’t say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or maybe none? Would anyone who can’t pronounce “h” properly be abused, possibly shot?

    You have a very sick imagination that reflects your inner corruption. You insisted earlier that Ukraine would kill millions of Russians. I guess that is where your mind is.

    None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred

    Most Ukrainians want a unilingual Ukraine. Even most Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If an angry minority of Russians don’t want it, they should be free to move to Russia. As I had written earlier, specific regions where the majority want Russian such as Crimea or Donetsk ought to be allowed to leave Ukraine also. I supported Crimea’s and Donbass leaving Ukraine.

    But now these regions have joined Russia and participated in an assault on Ukraine itself. If (unlikely, but possible) Ukraine manages to grab some or all of these areas, their actions may have consequences. Actions had consequences did for the Sudeten Germans and you liked that, remember? But Sudeten Germans were murdered in large numbers. I oppose that, let the Donbas Russians move to Russia without killing. I am not a monster like you are. Maybe that’s why you thought millions of Russians would be killed. It’s what you would do, it’s what Czechoslovak Communists did and when it comes down to it you are indeed just a Sovok.

    Let’s stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol , Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast.

    Is the Baltic Sea part of the North Sea when you argue about it? LOL.

    Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down (google it)

    .

    They can be blocked even without territory being seized.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Not sure what you trying to say.

    Are you seriously denying that the Azov See is de facto a part of Black See? And that Russia took it already? Or that Odessa and Nikolaev are blocked as ports? Kiev Ukraine is de facto blocked from the Black See - why do you insist in denying it? It makes you sound enthusiastic, but also stubbornly unaware of reality.


    Most Ukrainians want a unilingual Ukraine. Even most Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If an angry minority of Russians don’t want it, they should be free to move to Russia.
     
    No, they don't, most are a lot better people than your ilk. They want peace and everybody using whatever language they were born with. Like in all of Europe. You sound like a fanatic. Expulsion of an ethnic population is considered a crime in Europe of 2022. Think about it before you brazenly call for it.

    Minsk agreement simply provided what all European countries provide: local autonomy for a minority with language rights. Your exaggeration is cosmic. If Donbass could block Nato in Ukraine, why was that bad? Why are wars better than living together in peace?

    The war is largely in the Russian areas of Donbas and south Ukraine. The heaviest fighting is in Kiev occupied Donbas where they are not exactly welcomed by "most" of the local Russian population. Who is the aggressor there?

    About Sudetens: they were expelled after Germans attempted a genocide in Czechia, murdering hundreds of thousands. They were also expelled by the London based democratic government (look up President Benes). It was a nationalist initiative and not a communist one: when commies took over in 1948 they immediately stopped it, they were into "workers brotherhood". Commies even charged and punished some bourgeois with abuse of the German and Hungarian workers. You know nothing about it - in your mind is only the pathetic Hollywood education and black-and-white fairy tales. No attention to what actually happened. Commies were not in any way or form nationalist - that's why we are today where we are.

  822. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    You are welcome. Are you going to fly them yourself? You know, they are 40 years old and were "maintained" by a few goat herders in between drinks. So yes, that is again both quite sad and infantile. Symbolism means very little in an actual war.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    You know, they are 40 years old and were “maintained” by a few goat herders in between drinks

    I know you can’t help yourself but lie or exaggerate. Slovak Migs, while not up to the standards of Ukraine’s Migs, were upgraded and modernized:

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/allies-of-freedom-slovakia-mulls.html

    The Slovak Air Force officially operates nine single-seat MiG-29AS fighters and two MiG-29UBS trainers out of Sliac air base in Central Slovakia. Only five MiG-29AS’ and one MiG-29UBS are currently believed to be operational to meet a minimum requirement for air policing while the Air Force awaits their replacement by 12 single-seat and 2 double-seat F-16V Block 70/72s in 2023. All of Slovakia’s MiG-29s were upgraded by RSK MiG to NATO standards between 2005 and 2008 and designated MiG-29AS and MiG-29UBS (S for Slovakia), but otherwise retain their original capabilities from when they were first delivered to Czechoslovakia in the late 1980s.

    Unfortunately, this means the MiG-29AS’ are actually less advanced than Ukraine’s own 60-strong fleet of MiG-29 9.13s and MiG-29MU1s (an upgraded variant of the MiG-29 9.13), which has thus far suffered at least four (visually confirmed) losses during the 2022 invasion.

  823. @AP
    @Coconuts


    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.
     
    Of these, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires were pre-nationalistic Empires and were not coincidentally the least guilty. Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism. The war began when a Serbian nationalist linked to the Serb nationalist government murdered the Austro-Hungarian crown prince/future head of state. A-H's ultimatum and subsequent invasion of Serbia were justified. The others were motivated by nationalism. Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current. The French motivated by nationalist resentment at the loss of Alsace-Lorraine had no brakes.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Coconuts

    Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current.

    I’ve read a couple of historians claiming WWI was the first major conflict where incipient mass literacy among the advanced Western nations coincided with the emergence of tabloid/sensationalist newspapers. That combination made passions swell to a much greater – and uncontrollable – extent than had been in previous eras. WWI was the first “media war”.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    That’s right. France was the first to demonstrate this horror, as Celine noted.

    Replies: @German_reader

  824. @AP
    @Beckow


    You use precision where there is none, mix up timelines, assign motivations based on what is in your own mind, and massively exaggerate.
     
    More projection. In your very post you mixed up the Azov and Black Seas. And in this discussion you claimed that millions of Russians would be killed by Ukraine.

    I know you have issues w homo-globo, Brussels, etc
     
    I was never obsessed with these topics, particularly with regard to Ukraine. They aren't a problem in eastern Europe, why should I be? There is something unhealthy about people who are obsessed with LGBT (either to idolize and fetishize them or to cruelly persecute them).

    get the f…ing Russian minority out of your beloved Kiev satrapy. And, let’s not forget: it is for their own good, they will be happier expelled to Russia.
     
    I have no problems with Russians living in Ukraine, who are willing to adapt to local and native customs. If they are not, then they should be allowed to return to their ancestral homeland. It is big, there is plenty of room for them there, and it is richer than Ukraine. The Russian state has provided plenty of lavish housing for Armenians, it can help their countrymen from Ukraine also.

    So compromise is a dictate
     
    What you called a compromise was a Russian ultimatum that no sovereign country would accept and that Ukraine therefore did not accept.

    Soon after? You don’t say. Would Kiev give them two pieces of luggage or maybe none? Would anyone who can’t pronounce “h” properly be abused, possibly shot?
     
    You have a very sick imagination that reflects your inner corruption. You insisted earlier that Ukraine would kill millions of Russians. I guess that is where your mind is.

    None of that bothers you because the cause of unilingual Ukraine with Nato bases is so sacred
     
    Most Ukrainians want a unilingual Ukraine. Even most Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If an angry minority of Russians don't want it, they should be free to move to Russia. As I had written earlier, specific regions where the majority want Russian such as Crimea or Donetsk ought to be allowed to leave Ukraine also. I supported Crimea's and Donbass leaving Ukraine.

    But now these regions have joined Russia and participated in an assault on Ukraine itself. If (unlikely, but possible) Ukraine manages to grab some or all of these areas, their actions may have consequences. Actions had consequences did for the Sudeten Germans and you liked that, remember? But Sudeten Germans were murdered in large numbers. I oppose that, let the Donbas Russians move to Russia without killing. I am not a monster like you are. Maybe that's why you thought millions of Russians would be killed. It's what you would do, it's what Czechoslovak Communists did and when it comes down to it you are indeed just a Sovok.

    Let’s stay real and admit that Azov See with Mariupol , Berdyansk are also a part of Black See coast.
     
    Is the Baltic Sea part of the North Sea when you argue about it? LOL.

    Both Nikolaev and Odessa are currently blocked from the see, their ports shut down (google it)
     
    .

    They can be blocked even without territory being seized.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Not sure what you trying to say.

    Are you seriously denying that the Azov See is de facto a part of Black See? And that Russia took it already? Or that Odessa and Nikolaev are blocked as ports? Kiev Ukraine is de facto blocked from the Black See – why do you insist in denying it? It makes you sound enthusiastic, but also stubbornly unaware of reality.

    Most Ukrainians want a unilingual Ukraine. Even most Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If an angry minority of Russians don’t want it, they should be free to move to Russia.

    No, they don’t, most are a lot better people than your ilk. They want peace and everybody using whatever language they were born with. Like in all of Europe. You sound like a fanatic. Expulsion of an ethnic population is considered a crime in Europe of 2022. Think about it before you brazenly call for it.

    Minsk agreement simply provided what all European countries provide: local autonomy for a minority with language rights. Your exaggeration is cosmic. If Donbass could block Nato in Ukraine, why was that bad? Why are wars better than living together in peace?

    The war is largely in the Russian areas of Donbas and south Ukraine. The heaviest fighting is in Kiev occupied Donbas where they are not exactly welcomed by “most” of the local Russian population. Who is the aggressor there?

    About Sudetens: they were expelled after Germans attempted a genocide in Czechia, murdering hundreds of thousands. They were also expelled by the London based democratic government (look up President Benes). It was a nationalist initiative and not a communist one: when commies took over in 1948 they immediately stopped it, they were into “workers brotherhood“. Commies even charged and punished some bourgeois with abuse of the German and Hungarian workers. You know nothing about it – in your mind is only the pathetic Hollywood education and black-and-white fairy tales. No attention to what actually happened. Commies were not in any way or form nationalist – that’s why we are today where we are.

  825. @Beckow
    @Wokechoke

    Thanks, that's a great visual summary of what WWII was really like: a massive attack by almost all of Europe on Russia. A fourth or fifth one in the last few hundred years, from Napoleon to Hitler, to now some "Truss" lady with bad teeth. They can't help themselves.

    It is always a bloody mess, because: the resources. And because many start hysterically hating anything Russian. Look up Napoleon, Napoleon III, Crimean war, WWI and WWII propaganda - it is always the same: a fast descent into we are saving the civilization against savage murderous mongrels of the east.

    The mongrel race fights back, grudgingly, slowly, at first hesitantly. Then they prevail and the civilized Europeans quickly pretend: "oh, nothing", "they made us do it", and "you could had surrendered, we have better toys..." Escapist BS of infantile minds.

    In quick succession West goes from aggression to denial, from open hatred to contrition. They walk away from their bloody deeds like they always do around the world.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    It is indistinguishable from demonic possession.

    Maybe aliens.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Ideology and greed usually pair up. Europe has insufficient resources to maintain its lifestyles - they must get them somewhere and cheaply. Russia has about 25% of the global material resources, Western Europe about 3-4%. Technology and efficiency can correct some of it, but it is still a massive gap.

    Europe cannot maintain what it has without Russia's (or others) resources at a low cost. They invent endless ways to justify it. They are basically narcissist assh..les, so it is always "civilization", freedom this-or-that, human rights (only for some), divine will, whatever. For 30 years Europe had an incredibly sweet deal getting very cheap resources from Russia - or even effectively free since they paid with their faith-based "house" money. The sweet deal is over and the the hysteria is reaching feverish levels.

    What is left is to try to win the war. But can they? If the war is lost and Russia is still standing and has even more resources (Black See coast and arable lands), the consequences will be dire. Ruble is 20% higher than before the war - the money people always know what is going on, but fools like to pretend. Right Mr. Hacks?

  826. @AP
    @songbird


    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease.
     
    Lots of desperate excuse making to avoid the obvious: New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement. Either it was a series of very remarkable coincidences that this happened to be so due to particular geographical differences or evolutionary differences between subpopulations, or Catholicism and Orthodoxy simply provided for more humane worldviews. Occam's razor tells us it is the latter.

    That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?
     
    Denisovians in Tibet 10,000s of years ago don't matter with respect to why New World natives had it better when the Spaniards or the French arrived, compared to when the English Calvinists came, in the New World.

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog
     
    I've been commenting on Karlin's blog from before he came to Unz. It was called da Russophile.

    But you reminded us that HBD is often misused like a type of Just So stories. So American Natives lived better in places where the Spaniards arrived rather than in places where the Anglo-Saxons came because those particular Indians had different genetic traits that happened to coincide with the group of conquerors. The parts of India that had been ruled by Portugal are nicer than former British ones not because Portuguese rule was more humane than British rule but because Goans had different genes, right?


    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves
     
    You are so desperate to avoid the obvious conclusions about Anglo-Saxon Protestant behavior towards natives in the New World that you are even bringing Tibetan dogs into the discussion. Lol.

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive?
     
    You sound like you've been traumatized by the modern American educational system. I barely even know what "deconstructed" means, this became common after I finished university. I seems to be a further devolution of thought and morality, the same road as nationalism but more "advanced." But I haven't had the patience or time to waste on postmodern tracts so I might not be accurate.

    while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    ????

    Countries shouldn't invade other countries for nationalistic reasons or many other reasons, and if they do they should be punished - in Russia's case by having Ukraine be deadly for Russia. Not sure how this is "universal Ukrainian nationalism."


    Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine
     
    I have an affinity for Ukraine but it is a non-nationalistic one, to the extent that it is possible for someone living in the modern world. Ukraine like other places has not been helped much by nationalism. But Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine is certainly a much lesser evil than is Russian nationalism for Ukraine. It is useful now, in order to prevent Russian nationalists from taking over the country.

    Europe began its descent when Europeans abandoned monarchy, aristocracy and Church in favor of self-worship. Literally, idolatry which we were warned about. This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy), continued with worship of our Nations (nationalism), Class (Socialism and Communism), and finally base physical needs (modern hedonistic consumerism). It's all a long road downward.

    Periodic repost of a nice passage by the French author Celine about Nationalist "Progress" in Europe and what it meant as Europe self-destructed with its nationalist idiocy, when with the aid of nationalist propaganda stuffed into their minds people turned away from worshipping God and instead worshipped aspects of themselves such as the language they spoke and their kin ("nations"):


    It’s the philosophers . . . another point to look out for while we’re at it … who first started giving the people ideas . . , when all they’d known up until then was the catechism! They began, so they proclaimed, to educate the people . . . Ah! What truths they had to reveal! Beautiful! brilliant! unprecedented truths! And the people were dazzled! That’s it! they said. That’s the stuff! Let’s go and die for it! The people are always dying to die! That’s the way they are! ‘Long live Diderot!’ they yelled. And ‘Long live Voltaire!’ ….And long live everybody! Those guys at least don’t let the beloved people molder in ignorance and fetishism! They show the people the roads of Freedom! Emancipation! Things went fast after that! First teach everybody to read the papers! That’s the way to salvation! Hurry hurry! No more illiterates! We don’t need them anymore! Nothing but citizen-soldiers! Who vote! Who read! And who fight! And who march! And send kisses from the front! In no time the people were good and ripe! The enthusiasm of the liberated has to be good for something, doesn’t it? Danton wasn’t eloquent for the hell of it. With a few phrases, so rousing that we can still hear them today, he had the people mobilized before you could say fiddlesticks! That was when the first battalions of emancipated maniacs marched off! … the first voting, flagmatic suckers that Dumouriez led away to get themselves drilled full of holes in Flanders!… The free-gratis soldier . . . was something really new … So new that when Goethe arrived in Valmy… he was flabbergasted. At the sight of those ragged, impassioned cohorts, who had come of their own free will to get themselves disemboweled by the King of Prussia in defense of a patriotic fiction no one had ever heard of, Goethe realized that he still had much to learn. This day,’ he declaimed grandiloquently as befitted the habits of his genius, ‘marks the beginning of a new era!’ He could say that again! The system proved successful . . . pretty soon they were mass-producing heroes, and in the end, the system was so well perfected that they cost practically nothing. Everyone was delighted. Bismarck, the two Napoleons, Barrès, Elsa the Horsewoman. The religion of the flag promptly replaced the cult of heaven, an old cloud which had already been deflated by the Reformation and reduced to a network of episcopal money boxes. In olden times the fanatical fashion was: ‘Long live Jesus! Burn the heretics!’ . . . But heretics, after all, were few and voluntary . . . Whereas today vast hordes of men are fired with aim and purpose by cries of: ‘Hang the limp turnips! The juiceless lemons! The innocent readers! By the millions, eyes right!’ … Let whole legions of them perish, turn into smidgens, bleed, smolder in acid—and all that to make the Patrie more beloved, more fair, and more joyful! ”

     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird, @Ron Unz

    This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy)

    Protestant countries pulled ahead because we were not encumbered with those worshipping traditions for traditions sake. It was the Protestants who made the earliest and greatest strides in mass literacy (Netherlands, Sweden, England), and it was the Protestants who pushed aside traditionalists claiming that the bible cannot be read in the mother tongue. A laughable proposition these days, but this was the hill that the trads were willing to die on.

    Today, Catholicism is dying and it is Protestantism that is conquering not only Africa but even Latinx America, particularly Brasil. Ironically enough, Protestantism has both been a force for liberal change when required and now is at the vanguard of a more conservative turn whereas Pope Francis is mostly indistinguishable from your local SJW.

    Catholicm had an early lead but Protestantism is cannibalising it precisely because it is the more vital of the two. Orthodox Christianity is static; it has avoided the freefall that befell Catholicism but it shows none of the dynamism in winning new hearts and minds (or converting other Christians) that Protestantism, especially the Evangelical kind, does. In the fight of Christianty vs Islam, it will be Evangelical Protestantism that will be bringing the heavy artillery to the fight. Catholicism will shrivel away and die in a corner.

  827. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    More of my "sad" and "infantile" wishful thinking coming true:

    https://youtu.be/P7ZWP-9QIho

    Thank you Slovakia!

    Replies: @Beckow, @Vishnugupta

    These are downgraded Warsaw pact spec aircraft which haven’t been meaningfully upgraded. They can’t fire R 77 missiles only obsolete R27.

    The Mig 29 is also the ultimate hangar queen aircraft which needs a massive maintenance train.Good luck getting spares for these.

    This sort of remind me of the movie Lost World where park rangers are sent to fight a rampaging T rex sized dinosaur with non lethal stun weapons and get slaughtered.

    Well at least the Mig 29s come with superb Zvezda ejection seats.

    If the west is serious about arming the Ukrainian airforce they should give them at least Jas 39 Gripens armed with Meteor missiles.These planes are easy to fly can take off from highways can be refueled and rearmed in under 15 mins and have a compact maintenance train. The Meteor missiles and IRIS T AAMs make them formidable air combat planes even 20-30 of these will create serious problems for the Russian airforce over Ukrainian territory.

  828. @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    "Bonanza" was one of the finer TV western shows of the era (another one was called "Gunsmoke"). It portrayed the good white family (minus mom) making a successful go of it on the tough western frontier, somewhere like in Montana or Wyoming. The father figure, Ben Cartwright, was the epitome of a wholesome figure who was always fair with whomever he had to deal with. People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys. As a little kid, I always seemed to view him as a kind of American saintly man. The stories could be somewhat brawny, but overall good family fair to watch. Nothing out there today that compares.

    Replies: @songbird

    Anyway, based on your viewing tastes, you would probably enjoy “One Step Beyond” too.

    Thanks for the recommendation.

    [MORE]

    Then there are some of my very favorite shows from that era produced by Alfred Hitchcock. He produced weekly shows for about 6 years.

    I saw a Christmas episode, but had no idea that it had gone on that long.

    With Hitchcock, I think he sometimes attached his name to things, without having much to do with them (such as books), but I’ll have to see if I can find out more about the show and his involvement in it. I think there were cameos and introductions or something? (I see wiki says he directed 18 episodes out of 361.)

    People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys.

    I guess that was one problem with it – that the men were grown and mostly (as in for most of the show) unmarried. I remember an episode when Adam got married, but I think is wife soon died? Not a good natalist example, but I guess it is hard to write for children.

    Don’t really remember much of the racial stuff, except for the Chinese cook. I think fair treatment of the Indians was pretty par for the course, when it came to TV Westerns. In the Lone Ranger, I believe Indians were never the villain, unless maybe they were influenced by bad whites. And I can really sympathize with that viewpoint, even though it might be a bit ahistorical, as, sometimes, it seems to be in poor taste to pile on a defeated people.

    Regarding blacks, I don’t remember when they appeared. Though, some of those old shows (Happy Days, Bewitched), IMO, often had one really obnoxious episode nakedly promoting anti-racism.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @songbird

    Well, you're correct in pointing out that Hitchcock didn't write or direct all of the segments within his franchise TV series. You can watch them all if you have access to "Peacock", 7 seasons for the "Presents" series and actually 3 for the "Hour" series. That makes 10 seasons in all, and hundreds of segments that can be watched. The good thing is you can pick and choose which ones you want to watch, and there are short descriptions you can read including a short plot summary and a listing of the directors and actors for each one. A lot o the writers were quite good in their own right, IMHO. Most, of course not all, are high quality products, and are nice too if you're limited in time to watch TV including 30 & 60 minute programs. Actually less time than this, because they don't include any commercials, which Hitchcock was notorious for knocking anyway, all of the time. :-)

  829. @AP
    @Coconuts


    That argument always seemed strange; during WW1 the British Empire, the Russian Empire and the French Empire went to war with Imperial Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire over which alliance of Empires would have world hegemon status, but nationalism caused this.
     
    Of these, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires were pre-nationalistic Empires and were not coincidentally the least guilty. Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism. The war began when a Serbian nationalist linked to the Serb nationalist government murdered the Austro-Hungarian crown prince/future head of state. A-H's ultimatum and subsequent invasion of Serbia were justified. The others were motivated by nationalism. Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current. The French motivated by nationalist resentment at the loss of Alsace-Lorraine had no brakes.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @Coconuts

    Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism.

    This is correct, but Nationalism has multiple different meanings. Right-wing French monarchist nationalists like Action Francaise were eager to fight Germany to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine, but had no interest in Republican nationalist projects of incorporating the world into a French Liberal civilisation. Britain joined the war to protect its empire and its nationalistic, but simultaneously universalist, project of expanding Anglo-Liberalism throughout the world. I don’t know about Russia, was this another case of trying to incorporate many different ethnic groups and peoples into a single ‘Russian’ civilisation?

    Contemporary Nationalism means something closer to what the French monarchists were talking about, or Irish nationalism, Lithuanian nationalism, Ukrainian etc. These were more orientated towards preservation of a particular ethnic group and its state, or giving an ethnic group its own political presence and expression.

    This is why the claim that WW1 was caused by nationalism, when it is said nowadays, seems strange. It at least requires some clarification of what brand of nationalism is being referred to.

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Coconuts

    France was the first big integrated nation state.

    When the US Revolution happened there were perhaps 3 million colonists. There were 7 million British and around 20 million French. The French were infact the dominant Imperial power by a factor of 3, concerning the Americas, North Africa and India. They should have wiped out the British given these population figures.

    I’ve only recently deep dived on the Empire of Elizabeth of Russia. She pushed Frederick around like a schoolboy punk, so perhaps the Russians ought to be carefully assessed as a coming power in the middle 1700s too. The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.

    Replies: @Beckow

  830. @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon


    How likely would nukes, tactical or strategic, be dropped on population centers in any scale?
     
    That is the traditional nuclear war that people concluded would lead to MAD,. it's unrealistic yet all of the theoretical counter moves and ways of deterring first use have been thought about so much it is very unlikely to happen. I think those arguing against the possibility of any non-test thermonuclear detonation understand how unlike the aforementioned and much-studied scenarios the current situation is. Basically the expertise concerns a Russian turbo steamroller that is winning battles and has advancing by leaps and bounds conventionally when Nato nukes its spearheads. I happen to think that with what Ukraine has been given in the way of artillery (long range counter battery and even Excalibur shells which arw pinpoint accurate)), and their numbers of troops being greater in Donbass that is being admitted by Western experts ,Russia is going to be inexorably pushed back. Yet no one is talking about that because the Russians failing conventionally against a non nuclear non Nato power they can use a nuke against to stop a rout is not a schemata they have been trained to work with.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yellowface Anon

    Would you actually think Russia won’t escalate to attack NATO and increase the chance for a MAD with destructions of population centers occur?

    If you think population centers will more likely be spared under nuclear wars than not, would Europe, Russia or the US end up more similar to Central-Eastern Europe (Germany included) or Japan post-WWII, where there were still most of the pre-war population to rebuild?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon

    I happen to think that nuclear weapons are a deterrent to nuclear war, and neither the US or USSR had any intention of first using nuclear weapons. A Soviet attac on the West would have been conventional. An 1980s WW3 would have been fpught win or lose completely conventional, especially by America because its industrial and economic strength would give them more of an advantage over the Soviet Unions if the war was kept conventional, which would have entailed it being longer and global.

    For me the threat of an incredible act is not deterring anyone, although it may have been trumpeted as official policy. nuclear armed state need not fear a nuke being used against it, which is especially true of Russia Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons to retaliate in kind with. No other country would do it for them because Russia would retaliate and America hardly want to get into thermonuclear war in which Russia would be a match for the West in a way it is not in conventional war.

    I do not believe in the aftermath of a tactical battlefield thermonuclear weapon use by Russia in Ukraine that Nato would attack the tactical warhead nuclear facilities of Russia with conventional weapons' is be an act of war very close to using a nuke. No one is going to do that to Russia. I do not believe that any country would first use nukes against a nuclear armed country/ alliance member, but Ukraine is neither of those.

    Nor would a nuclear armed third party country attack the stored nuclear weapons' of a nuclear state that had nuked a non nuclear state, because that would be a counterforce strike and likely to be interpreted as an act of nuclear war warranting a tactical nuclear specimen strike to demonstrate resolve. Nato would not send conventional forces into Ukraine after a Russian tactical nuke was used because you cannot fight conventionally against nukes. The sanctions would be permanent of course but Russia have been sanctioned under one pretext or another since the 70s. I think Putin had years ago discounted Russia ever being sanction-free.

  831. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    You are welcome. Are you going to fly them yourself? You know, they are 40 years old and were "maintained" by a few goat herders in between drinks. So yes, that is again both quite sad and infantile. Symbolism means very little in an actual war.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    Don’t worry. The Ukrainians will get these planes up and running, and put them to good use very soon. You still don’t seem to realize how motivated and skillful the Ukrainian military is. They’re also scheduled to obtain MIG-29’s from Poland and Bulgaria too, somewhere in the neighborhood of just over 100. These aircraft will help the drones etc; in keeping the airways cleared from psychotic Russian air raids.

    It looks like all of your kremlin stooge ranting here has little effect on your fellow countrymen.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away. A win-win, if you define winning generously. Just like S-300 previously that were destroyed on arrival. Or the Covid expired vaccines "generously" given to Africa to be scrapped there - it is less embarrassing that way.

    It is not about "skill", it is about usable technology. Maybe against Niger they would have some role, but in this war they are worse than useless because trained pilots are more valuable than old planes.

    And the "soon" you are telling us about will be when?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  832. @AP
    @songbird


    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease.
     
    Lots of desperate excuse making to avoid the obvious: New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement. Either it was a series of very remarkable coincidences that this happened to be so due to particular geographical differences or evolutionary differences between subpopulations, or Catholicism and Orthodoxy simply provided for more humane worldviews. Occam's razor tells us it is the latter.

    That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?
     
    Denisovians in Tibet 10,000s of years ago don't matter with respect to why New World natives had it better when the Spaniards or the French arrived, compared to when the English Calvinists came, in the New World.

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog
     
    I've been commenting on Karlin's blog from before he came to Unz. It was called da Russophile.

    But you reminded us that HBD is often misused like a type of Just So stories. So American Natives lived better in places where the Spaniards arrived rather than in places where the Anglo-Saxons came because those particular Indians had different genetic traits that happened to coincide with the group of conquerors. The parts of India that had been ruled by Portugal are nicer than former British ones not because Portuguese rule was more humane than British rule but because Goans had different genes, right?


    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves
     
    You are so desperate to avoid the obvious conclusions about Anglo-Saxon Protestant behavior towards natives in the New World that you are even bringing Tibetan dogs into the discussion. Lol.

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive?
     
    You sound like you've been traumatized by the modern American educational system. I barely even know what "deconstructed" means, this became common after I finished university. I seems to be a further devolution of thought and morality, the same road as nationalism but more "advanced." But I haven't had the patience or time to waste on postmodern tracts so I might not be accurate.

    while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    ????

    Countries shouldn't invade other countries for nationalistic reasons or many other reasons, and if they do they should be punished - in Russia's case by having Ukraine be deadly for Russia. Not sure how this is "universal Ukrainian nationalism."


    Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine
     
    I have an affinity for Ukraine but it is a non-nationalistic one, to the extent that it is possible for someone living in the modern world. Ukraine like other places has not been helped much by nationalism. But Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine is certainly a much lesser evil than is Russian nationalism for Ukraine. It is useful now, in order to prevent Russian nationalists from taking over the country.

    Europe began its descent when Europeans abandoned monarchy, aristocracy and Church in favor of self-worship. Literally, idolatry which we were warned about. This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy), continued with worship of our Nations (nationalism), Class (Socialism and Communism), and finally base physical needs (modern hedonistic consumerism). It's all a long road downward.

    Periodic repost of a nice passage by the French author Celine about Nationalist "Progress" in Europe and what it meant as Europe self-destructed with its nationalist idiocy, when with the aid of nationalist propaganda stuffed into their minds people turned away from worshipping God and instead worshipped aspects of themselves such as the language they spoke and their kin ("nations"):


    It’s the philosophers . . . another point to look out for while we’re at it … who first started giving the people ideas . . , when all they’d known up until then was the catechism! They began, so they proclaimed, to educate the people . . . Ah! What truths they had to reveal! Beautiful! brilliant! unprecedented truths! And the people were dazzled! That’s it! they said. That’s the stuff! Let’s go and die for it! The people are always dying to die! That’s the way they are! ‘Long live Diderot!’ they yelled. And ‘Long live Voltaire!’ ….And long live everybody! Those guys at least don’t let the beloved people molder in ignorance and fetishism! They show the people the roads of Freedom! Emancipation! Things went fast after that! First teach everybody to read the papers! That’s the way to salvation! Hurry hurry! No more illiterates! We don’t need them anymore! Nothing but citizen-soldiers! Who vote! Who read! And who fight! And who march! And send kisses from the front! In no time the people were good and ripe! The enthusiasm of the liberated has to be good for something, doesn’t it? Danton wasn’t eloquent for the hell of it. With a few phrases, so rousing that we can still hear them today, he had the people mobilized before you could say fiddlesticks! That was when the first battalions of emancipated maniacs marched off! … the first voting, flagmatic suckers that Dumouriez led away to get themselves drilled full of holes in Flanders!… The free-gratis soldier . . . was something really new … So new that when Goethe arrived in Valmy… he was flabbergasted. At the sight of those ragged, impassioned cohorts, who had come of their own free will to get themselves disemboweled by the King of Prussia in defense of a patriotic fiction no one had ever heard of, Goethe realized that he still had much to learn. This day,’ he declaimed grandiloquently as befitted the habits of his genius, ‘marks the beginning of a new era!’ He could say that again! The system proved successful . . . pretty soon they were mass-producing heroes, and in the end, the system was so well perfected that they cost practically nothing. Everyone was delighted. Bismarck, the two Napoleons, Barrès, Elsa the Horsewoman. The religion of the flag promptly replaced the cult of heaven, an old cloud which had already been deflated by the Reformation and reduced to a network of episcopal money boxes. In olden times the fanatical fashion was: ‘Long live Jesus! Burn the heretics!’ . . . But heretics, after all, were few and voluntary . . . Whereas today vast hordes of men are fired with aim and purpose by cries of: ‘Hang the limp turnips! The juiceless lemons! The innocent readers! By the millions, eyes right!’ … Let whole legions of them perish, turn into smidgens, bleed, smolder in acid—and all that to make the Patrie more beloved, more fair, and more joyful! ”

     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird, @Ron Unz

    Occam’s razor tells us it is the latter.

    Not Occam, but the axe you are grinding.

    [MORE]

    That makes you shotgun blast ridiculous ideas at me, and then not concede an inch, even on your most ridiculous ones. Here’s some of what you would seem to have us believe:

    1.) reports of ancient cities in Peru and Mexico, do not suggest higher population density at different latitudes
    2.) 700 years or less, after corn was introduced in Northern latitudes, it must have had the same yield as the places where it was grown for thousands of years.
    3.) the potato is not a remarkable, high yield crop that dramatically increases population density everywhere it can be grown.
    4.) people in the Caucuses had no advantages over Amerinds in the New World.
    5.) no analogies can be drawn between the Andes and Tibet.
    6.) no facts of biology can be uncovered by looking at different breeds of dogs
    7.) the bronze age warriors who took the southern route of conquest in Europe must have been much, much nicer guys than the same guys who took the northern route. Because there was less genetic turnover in the South. It had nothing to do with crop yields at different latitudes, and how that effects population density.

    I could go on, but I won’t.

    If your model is so deeply flawed that you cannot concede any of these things, then it is pretty obvious that you cannot concede that there is a chance you just might possibly have a poor model for Quebec.

    Jousting with an eccentric is fun, but not when he has an axe to grind, that is about status-seeking for his groups (Catholics/Slavs), and status-eroding for another (WASPs).

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird

    I agree to a large extent with your points (though I'm a bit skeptical about some HBD explanations), but the discussion isn't likely to go anywhere.
    The almost idyllic picture of Spanish-native relations in Latin America AP is painting (and mad utu too) seems really strange to me though. I read a somewhat interesting book earlier this year which compares three great native insurgencies in Latin America, in New Mexico in the 1680s, in the Andes in the 1780s and the Caste war in Yucatan in the mid-19th century (Nicholas A. Robins, Native insurgencies and the genocidal impulse in the Americas; though I wouldn't recommend reading the book, the core argument is laid out clearly enough in an article in a collection of essays, Genocides by the oppressed. Subaltern genocide in theory and practice). The author argues that these nativist, millenarian revolts were at least partly genocidal in their aims, seeking a total or almost total removal of the Hispanic presence from their respective areas. Didn't exactly sound like the Amerinds involved in these revolts were grateful for Spanish rule. Sometimes they respected Catholic priests, but at other times they killed them in especially sadistic ways, because they regarded them as oppressors who exploited them economically, took native girls for sex etc.

    Replies: @songbird

  833. @AP
    @Beckow


    …Kind of like Germany in 1943.

    Kind of like Russia in 1943 too, the flow in wars is like that.
     

    Not at all, because in 1943 the USSR had less territory than it had before the German invasion. Just as, today, Ukraine has less territory than it had prior to the Russian invasion. But Germany's seized territory had been reduced in size in 1943, as Russian seized territory is reduced in size now.

    Of course, in 1943 (at least until the Battle of Kursk in summer) Germany still had a chance of turning things around and winning. Russia still has that chance too, it hasn't reached its 1944 yet. But neither Germany in 1943 nor Russia in early May 2022 was/is "winning."


    Don’t cherrypick. Also remember Mariupol, who won there?
     
    In 1943 Germany still controlled the Baltics, Kiev, etc. They won there. So? They were driven out of Moscow's outskirts, Stalingrad, etc. And Russia has been driven out of Kiev's outskirts, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc.

    This is a fantastically stupid statement.

    Provide an alternative: what would Kiev do to Donbas Russians? expulsion?
     

    Ukraine is not going to kill millions of people, as you wrote. If Ukraine were to seize Donbas in its entirety I imagine a few 100,000s would leave for better lives in Russia (a much lesser humanitarian disaster than if Russia seized all or even half of Ukraine) , the rest would claim they had been held hostage or whatever. Donbassers don't seem to be nearly as loyal to Donbas Republics as Ukrainians are loyal to Ukraine so even per capita it would be less tragic.

    Millions killed. What have you been reading to poison your little mind in such a way?

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

    So far as WW1 comparisons go, it is Russia fighting as Great Britain at about 30% of its potential vs. Ukraine as a USSR backed up by Lend-Lease & Bletchley fighting at 80% of its potential.

    Would a 150M Great Britain have won vs. a 35M USSR, even one outfitted with Western gear and intelligence? To ask the question is to answer it. But, lacking both the superlative combat effectiveness and greater casualty tolerance of Nazi Germany (it is not even using conscripts like the Turks were doing in Syria), it would fight in a cautious, plodding manner, attritioning the USSR with artillery and strategic bombing (Kalibrs etc.). Apart from that, the problem for Ukraine is that its TFR 20 years ago was close 1 vs. 6 for the USSR in the 1920s, and there are more or less open borders with Europe for non-svidomist men to escape to.

    ***

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize. I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer, if Zelensky goes full totalitarian, but that’s hard to imagine in the Ukrainian context. The Franco-Prussian War now seems like a good frame of reference, with the equivalent of the Battle of Sedan taking place in a more protracted and attritional form in the Donbass, with subsequent units to be much less well trained, ad hoc, and poorly armed.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    You seem to forget that it was the chief Russian diplomat, Lavrov, who first brought up the prospect of using nuclear weapons?

    https://youtu.be/Ieji-Chpwz8

    This threat was most recently made one week ago, but has been made since the beginning of the war
    , @Sean
    @Anatoly Karlin


    I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer
     
    To my way of thinking Dubious, the Russia effort is across along the entire line of contact, a very broad front . If Russia was capable of winning this in such a timeframe as you suggest it would have would have gathered the wherewithal at one time and place for a much quicker win. Personally I think, the ground hardening in Summer may see a Ukrainian offensive making significant gains. Unless the Russians are well dug in as a result of being pounded by pinpoint accurate artillery that outranges there own

    Russian usage of nukes
     
    It is a red herring when Western pundits imply it may be against Nato. However a Russian tactical thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    Anatoly, I haven't addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn't begin to describe them. You're right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren't as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won't happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn't begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Sean, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

  834. @songbird
    @Mr. Hack


    Anyway, based on your viewing tastes, you would probably enjoy “One Step Beyond” too.
     
    Thanks for the recommendation.

    Then there are some of my very favorite shows from that era produced by Alfred Hitchcock. He produced weekly shows for about 6 years.
     
    I saw a Christmas episode, but had no idea that it had gone on that long.

    With Hitchcock, I think he sometimes attached his name to things, without having much to do with them (such as books), but I'll have to see if I can find out more about the show and his involvement in it. I think there were cameos and introductions or something? (I see wiki says he directed 18 episodes out of 361.)

    People of all ethnic European backgrounds, Chinese, Mexicans, Blacks and even American Indians were fairly treated by Ben and his family of grown boys.
     
    I guess that was one problem with it - that the men were grown and mostly (as in for most of the show) unmarried. I remember an episode when Adam got married, but I think is wife soon died? Not a good natalist example, but I guess it is hard to write for children.

    Don't really remember much of the racial stuff, except for the Chinese cook. I think fair treatment of the Indians was pretty par for the course, when it came to TV Westerns. In the Lone Ranger, I believe Indians were never the villain, unless maybe they were influenced by bad whites. And I can really sympathize with that viewpoint, even though it might be a bit ahistorical, as, sometimes, it seems to be in poor taste to pile on a defeated people.

    Regarding blacks, I don't remember when they appeared. Though, some of those old shows (Happy Days, Bewitched), IMO, often had one really obnoxious episode nakedly promoting anti-racism.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Well, you’re correct in pointing out that Hitchcock didn’t write or direct all of the segments within his franchise TV series. You can watch them all if you have access to “Peacock”, 7 seasons for the “Presents” series and actually 3 for the “Hour” series. That makes 10 seasons in all, and hundreds of segments that can be watched. The good thing is you can pick and choose which ones you want to watch, and there are short descriptions you can read including a short plot summary and a listing of the directors and actors for each one. A lot o the writers were quite good in their own right, IMHO. Most, of course not all, are high quality products, and are nice too if you’re limited in time to watch TV including 30 & 60 minute programs. Actually less time than this, because they don’t include any commercials, which Hitchcock was notorious for knocking anyway, all of the time. 🙂

    • Thanks: songbird
  835. On another note, seems like the credulous bought into yet another Ukrofake.

    However, the failed Ukrainian amphibious assault on Snake Island – apparently to get a symbolic victory for May 9 – seems to have been real and failed catastrophically.

    If so yet more meat for my comparison of the UkSSR to the Soviet Union, getting military operations done to coincide with important dates was a feature of both (but not of the far less ideologized Putinist Russia).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    the failed Ukrainian amphibious assault on Snake Island – apparently to get a symbolic victory for May 9 – seems to have been real and failed catastrophically.
     
    No, that was fake. Allegedly nonexistent Ukrainian Air Force just keeps bombing Snake Island, no attempt to storm it. Putting soldiers there as sacrifices would be a stupid thing to do, worthy of the Russian military.



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1523028196249071616?s=21&t=GFrsyhq2YfGjausHIYyqsA

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  836. @Thulean Friend
    @AP


    Importantly, both monarchs Wilhelm and Nicholas personally did not want war and in an earlier age the war would not have occurred, but the masses and their own underlings who were stirred up by nationalist sentiment demanded it and they were carried along the current.
     
    I've read a couple of historians claiming WWI was the first major conflict where incipient mass literacy among the advanced Western nations coincided with the emergence of tabloid/sensationalist newspapers. That combination made passions swell to a much greater - and uncontrollable - extent than had been in previous eras. WWI was the first "media war".

    Replies: @AP

    That’s right. France was the first to demonstrate this horror, as Celine noted.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @AP

    Didn't Celine also once say that Europe died at Stalingrad?
    He probably just hated the French Republic (maybe with good reason).

  837. German_reader says:
    @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    That’s right. France was the first to demonstrate this horror, as Celine noted.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Didn’t Celine also once say that Europe died at Stalingrad?
    He probably just hated the French Republic (maybe with good reason).

  838. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @AP


    Occam’s razor tells us it is the latter.
     
    Not Occam, but the axe you are grinding.

    That makes you shotgun blast ridiculous ideas at me, and then not concede an inch, even on your most ridiculous ones. Here's some of what you would seem to have us believe:

    1.) reports of ancient cities in Peru and Mexico, do not suggest higher population density at different latitudes
    2.) 700 years or less, after corn was introduced in Northern latitudes, it must have had the same yield as the places where it was grown for thousands of years.
    3.) the potato is not a remarkable, high yield crop that dramatically increases population density everywhere it can be grown.
    4.) people in the Caucuses had no advantages over Amerinds in the New World.
    5.) no analogies can be drawn between the Andes and Tibet.
    6.) no facts of biology can be uncovered by looking at different breeds of dogs
    7.) the bronze age warriors who took the southern route of conquest in Europe must have been much, much nicer guys than the same guys who took the northern route. Because there was less genetic turnover in the South. It had nothing to do with crop yields at different latitudes, and how that effects population density.

    I could go on, but I won't.

    If your model is so deeply flawed that you cannot concede any of these things, then it is pretty obvious that you cannot concede that there is a chance you just might possibly have a poor model for Quebec.

    Jousting with an eccentric is fun, but not when he has an axe to grind, that is about status-seeking for his groups (Catholics/Slavs), and status-eroding for another (WASPs).

    Replies: @German_reader

    I agree to a large extent with your points (though I’m a bit skeptical about some HBD explanations), but the discussion isn’t likely to go anywhere.
    The almost idyllic picture of Spanish-native relations in Latin America AP is painting (and mad utu too) seems really strange to me though. I read a somewhat interesting book earlier this year which compares three great native insurgencies in Latin America, in New Mexico in the 1680s, in the Andes in the 1780s and the Caste war in Yucatan in the mid-19th century (Nicholas A. Robins, Native insurgencies and the genocidal impulse in the Americas; though I wouldn’t recommend reading the book, the core argument is laid out clearly enough in an article in a collection of essays, Genocides by the oppressed. Subaltern genocide in theory and practice). The author argues that these nativist, millenarian revolts were at least partly genocidal in their aims, seeking a total or almost total removal of the Hispanic presence from their respective areas. Didn’t exactly sound like the Amerinds involved in these revolts were grateful for Spanish rule. Sometimes they respected Catholic priests, but at other times they killed them in especially sadistic ways, because they regarded them as oppressors who exploited them economically, took native girls for sex etc.

    • Agree: songbird
    • Thanks: sher singh
    • Replies: @songbird
    @German_reader

    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston. So far, he hasn't done it, and I don't think there is much hope of him finding one in Patagonia.

    Replies: @AP

  839. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Beckow

    It is indistinguishable from demonic possession.

    Maybe aliens.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Ideology and greed usually pair up. Europe has insufficient resources to maintain its lifestyles – they must get them somewhere and cheaply. Russia has about 25% of the global material resources, Western Europe about 3-4%. Technology and efficiency can correct some of it, but it is still a massive gap.

    Europe cannot maintain what it has without Russia’s (or others) resources at a low cost. They invent endless ways to justify it. They are basically narcissist assh..les, so it is always “civilization”, freedom this-or-that, human rights (only for some), divine will, whatever. For 30 years Europe had an incredibly sweet deal getting very cheap resources from Russia – or even effectively free since they paid with their faith-based “house” money. The sweet deal is over and the the hysteria is reaching feverish levels.

    What is left is to try to win the war. But can they? If the war is lost and Russia is still standing and has even more resources (Black See coast and arable lands), the consequences will be dire. Ruble is 20% higher than before the war – the money people always know what is going on, but fools like to pretend. Right Mr. Hacks?

  840. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    So far as WW1 comparisons go, it is Russia fighting as Great Britain at about 30% of its potential vs. Ukraine as a USSR backed up by Lend-Lease & Bletchley fighting at 80% of its potential.

    Would a 150M Great Britain have won vs. a 35M USSR, even one outfitted with Western gear and intelligence? To ask the question is to answer it. But, lacking both the superlative combat effectiveness and greater casualty tolerance of Nazi Germany (it is not even using conscripts like the Turks were doing in Syria), it would fight in a cautious, plodding manner, attritioning the USSR with artillery and strategic bombing (Kalibrs etc.). Apart from that, the problem for Ukraine is that its TFR 20 years ago was close 1 vs. 6 for the USSR in the 1920s, and there are more or less open borders with Europe for non-svidomist men to escape to.

    ***

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize. I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer, if Zelensky goes full totalitarian, but that's hard to imagine in the Ukrainian context. The Franco-Prussian War now seems like a good frame of reference, with the equivalent of the Battle of Sedan taking place in a more protracted and attritional form in the Donbass, with subsequent units to be much less well trained, ad hoc, and poorly armed.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.

    You seem to forget that it was the chief Russian diplomat, Lavrov, who first brought up the prospect of using nuclear weapons?

    This threat was most recently made one week ago, but has been made since the beginning of the war

  841. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow

    Don't worry. The Ukrainians will get these planes up and running, and put them to good use very soon. You still don't seem to realize how motivated and skillful the Ukrainian military is. They're also scheduled to obtain MIG-29's from Poland and Bulgaria too, somewhere in the neighborhood of just over 100. These aircraft will help the drones etc; in keeping the airways cleared from psychotic Russian air raids.

    It looks like all of your kremlin stooge ranting here has little effect on your fellow countrymen.

    Replies: @Beckow

    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away. A win-win, if you define winning generously. Just like S-300 previously that were destroyed on arrival. Or the Covid expired vaccines “generously” given to Africa to be scrapped there – it is less embarrassing that way.

    It is not about “skill”, it is about usable technology. Maybe against Niger they would have some role, but in this war they are worse than useless because trained pilots are more valuable than old planes.

    And the “soon” you are telling us about will be when?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away.
     
    Trying to pull the wool over people's eye twice in such a short period of time? What's the matter, didn't you read AP's reply regarding this point in reply #829? Besides trying to help the Ukrainians keep the Russian horde out of Ukraine, the Slovaks are going to receive newer fighter jets in return from the West. The Ukrainians have been quite successful at using these older planes, and know exactly how to operate them.

    Replies: @Beckow

  842. @German_reader
    @songbird

    I agree to a large extent with your points (though I'm a bit skeptical about some HBD explanations), but the discussion isn't likely to go anywhere.
    The almost idyllic picture of Spanish-native relations in Latin America AP is painting (and mad utu too) seems really strange to me though. I read a somewhat interesting book earlier this year which compares three great native insurgencies in Latin America, in New Mexico in the 1680s, in the Andes in the 1780s and the Caste war in Yucatan in the mid-19th century (Nicholas A. Robins, Native insurgencies and the genocidal impulse in the Americas; though I wouldn't recommend reading the book, the core argument is laid out clearly enough in an article in a collection of essays, Genocides by the oppressed. Subaltern genocide in theory and practice). The author argues that these nativist, millenarian revolts were at least partly genocidal in their aims, seeking a total or almost total removal of the Hispanic presence from their respective areas. Didn't exactly sound like the Amerinds involved in these revolts were grateful for Spanish rule. Sometimes they respected Catholic priests, but at other times they killed them in especially sadistic ways, because they regarded them as oppressors who exploited them economically, took native girls for sex etc.

    Replies: @songbird

    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston. So far, he hasn’t done it, and I don’t think there is much hope of him finding one in Patagonia.

    • Replies: @AP
    @songbird


    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston.
     
    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Catedral_Metropolitana_de_Santiago.jpg/800px-Catedral_Metropolitana_de_Santiago.jpg

    And of course Buenos Aires.

    Cordoba Argentina is only about 100 miles further from the equator than is Savannah Georgia:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/CATEDRALDIA2.jpg/1280px-CATEDRALDIA2.jpg

    You don't have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?

    I suppose that Tibetan dogs can explain the discrepancy?

    Replies: @songbird

  843. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Russia is not dropping a nuclear bomb
     
    If people thought they would, they wouldn't have to.

    That really would be the end of Russia.
     
    They are getting close to the end--whatever they do.

    Not withdrawing from Ukraine, which would only have the effect of saving Russians lives and ending sanctions and nothing negative for them at all.
     
    But they thought the status quo was intolerable.

    I think far too many people who are discussing the possibility of it, have not really sat down and reflected on how they would feel. The reaction would be enormous and visceral. Not just from the West, but also from the Chinese and others. It would be like no other even in our lifetime. Or perhaps any lifetime.
     
    America has repeatedly threatened China with battlefield nuclear weapons if it invaded Taiwan although Taiwan is not an independent sovereign state. America invaded Iraq for anfextremely tenuous justification.

    Russia can have 48 hour to withdraw after such an attack or be obliterated.
     
    What with?

    The species’ survival would depend on it
     
    Russia's nuclear arsenals is essentially equivalent to America's so if Russia or Russian forces in Ukraine get obliterated something pretty unpleasant is going to happen to America or American troops in Europe.

    Every other inter-human conflict would be irrelevant. No one must ever get away with using nuclear bombs now that we know they work and that there is a chance for endless escalation.
     
    Why does Russia have the world's largest stock of tactical nuclear weapons if it thinks it would forced to surrender if it ever used one to avoid conventional defeat?

    So no, I don’t think Russia is going to use a nuke. They lose nothing by withdrawing.
     
    If they are exposed as too scared to use a nuke, Russia would loose all international respect, and respect for themselves.

    While deploying a nuke would wreak carnage on their souls and be the end of their nation
     
    They would be killing for the very highest of reasons. Defending their community. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJIs72EoB4A

    And killing is men's work, they (Ukrainian and Russian alike) enjoy it.

    Replies: @Johnny Rico

    Good video. Apparently we can look forward to an invasion of Alaska at some point.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Johnny Rico

    The conflict in Donbass was much more of a civil war fought by ethnic Russians of East Ukraine outraged at the way integral nationalist refused to accept an ethnic Russian president in 20o4 and then overthrew him in 2014 than is generally admitted. Retired General Ben Hodges, former Nato supreme allied commander , who has been about the most prescient military commentator so far, says that the Ukrainians are going to win the battle of wills and they are going to push the 'hollow' Russians out unless America stops supplying weapons and money to Ukraine (Afghanistan was a Trillion so the Ukraine is going to be cheap for the results). He also says there is not going to be a Russian Federation in five years. Hmmm.
    Putin thinks he cannot afford defeat
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQLhsPWqSwM

  844. utu says:

    Douglas Murray: The gullible Right has fallen for Putin (Apr 25, 2022)
    youtube.com/watch?v=xW0qWXUaHZk

    I do not know Murray’s track record on Putin so I do not know how much of what he is saying now is driven by his bad conscience and seeking for alibis.

    The rightoids and trad conservative Christians and non Christians, HBDists and IQists fell for Putin for different reasons but there is a common denominator that is trivial on psychological level. Obviously Kremlin propaganda preyed on their susceptibilities. The greatest Putin’s feat was to create and adopt the largest ever (since Lenin and Stalin) pro-Russian influx via anti-covid and anti-vaxx disinformation Ron Unz’s continued shilling for Putin is still for another reasons which however, will be revealed sooner than later.

    The West is the Best and Russia and China are not part of it. But Japan is and everybody is happy. The West in its wisdom is forgiving and will welcome Russian with open arms once Russia recognizes and acknowledges it is mentally ill. Rejecting the denial is the first step of recovery.

    • LOL: German_reader
    • Troll: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/imf-report-issued-after-the-nuclear

    We truly live in the End Times when a somewhat mainstream economist is speculating what things will look like after Russia-NATO MAD. China rules the world by then.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Yevardian
    @utu

    I'm familiar with Douglas Murray from Spectator magazine (haven't read it in years though), he's always been a hack echoing the most generic conventional narrative, I don't think anything of him.

    And come on, I can't believe you really think 'Russia will be opened with open arms', whatever happens, you're either riling people or seriously losing perspective.

  845. German_reader says:

    Some funny video clips from Germany:

    [MORE]

    The grotesque figures shown there are all members of parliament. The fat girl almost at the start is the new chairwoman of the Greens (strongly in favour of body positivity).

    • Replies: @Coconuts
    @German_reader

    When I was about 3 or 4 I used to have a book called 'War and Peas':

    https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=QyWn%2fevJ&id=C279FFD4E49D61F4F1CFA683356045C037474255&thid=OIP.QyWn_evJAVeuNcI0VV2C1gHaJ1&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.ebayimg.com%2fimages%2fg%2fQWkAAOSwq15d6ysf%2fs-l640.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.4325a7fdebc90157ae35c234555d82d6%3frik%3dVUJHN8BFYDWDpg%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=640&expw=482&q=war+and+peas+michael+foreman&simid=608026090772301378&FORM=IRPRST&ck=2448B23683DB3E686080A8F4953386F6&selectedIndex=2&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

    It was memorable, but more and more it feels like it was partly a 'history of the future'.

  846. @utu
    Douglas Murray: The gullible Right has fallen for Putin (Apr 25, 2022)
    youtube.com/watch?v=xW0qWXUaHZk

    I do not know Murray's track record on Putin so I do not know how much of what he is saying now is driven by his bad conscience and seeking for alibis.

    The rightoids and trad conservative Christians and non Christians, HBDists and IQists fell for Putin for different reasons but there is a common denominator that is trivial on psychological level. Obviously Kremlin propaganda preyed on their susceptibilities. The greatest Putin's feat was to create and adopt the largest ever (since Lenin and Stalin) pro-Russian influx via anti-covid and anti-vaxx disinformation Ron Unz's continued shilling for Putin is still for another reasons which however, will be revealed sooner than later.

    The West is the Best and Russia and China are not part of it. But Japan is and everybody is happy. The West in its wisdom is forgiving and will welcome Russian with open arms once Russia recognizes and acknowledges it is mentally ill. Rejecting the denial is the first step of recovery.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yevardian

    https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/imf-report-issued-after-the-nuclear

    We truly live in the End Times when a somewhat mainstream economist is speculating what things will look like after Russia-NATO MAD. China rules the world by then.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Yellowface Anon

    "China rules the world by then." - No, China should know its place as it has always been in history, Taiwan is independent and sovereign state. China will throw some tantrums and that's all of China flexing its muscle.

    Mr. China, concentrate on your internal market. That's where your happy future is. Forget about the dreams of being the world power. Concentrate on making the Chinese happy and affluent. You do not not need Vietnamese, Koreans , Filipinos or Taiwanese for it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

  847. utu says:
    @German_reader
    @utu


    Germany and France as relatively large military powers
     
    Germany isn't a "large military power", its military is a run-down joke, with only a fraction of its nominal strength being operational at any time and tanks and other vehicles being cannibalized for spare parts. Definitely not in the same league as France.
    And besides political factors, this is also another reason why the demands of the Ukrainian ambassador (who basically wants Germany to just hand over much of its useable tanks and artillery) are surreal. If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn't have much materiel left.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @utu

    If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn’t have much materiel left.

    This is what you guys really want, isn’t it?. You do not want to have to face the dilemma whether to pull the trigger when the Russians will be coming. No weapons no psychological trauma. Unless you need those weapons to defend against France or Denmark.

    “The idea that Germany delivers weapons that could then be used to kill Russians is very difficult to stomach for many Germans,” Marcel Dirsus, a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), told DW.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @utu

    Anti-German comments like yours are intended to sow dissension within NATO.
    imo you're a Russian troll. Probably working straight from the Lubyanka.

  848. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away. A win-win, if you define winning generously. Just like S-300 previously that were destroyed on arrival. Or the Covid expired vaccines "generously" given to Africa to be scrapped there - it is less embarrassing that way.

    It is not about "skill", it is about usable technology. Maybe against Niger they would have some role, but in this war they are worse than useless because trained pilots are more valuable than old planes.

    And the "soon" you are telling us about will be when?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away.

    Trying to pull the wool over people’s eye twice in such a short period of time? What’s the matter, didn’t you read AP’s reply regarding this point in reply #829? Besides trying to help the Ukrainians keep the Russian horde out of Ukraine, the Slovaks are going to receive newer fighter jets in return from the West. The Ukrainians have been quite successful at using these older planes, and know exactly how to operate them.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    AP in #829 says the same as what I say, just in a typical AP's manner he is hyper optimistic and distracts with redundant details.

    The Migs were "upgraded" about 10-12 years ago just so they can still fly. They are 40 years old and use a very low level of technology. They are not a show-changer and no sane pilot will take them up into a fight.


    receive newer fighter jets in return from the West.
     
    Receive? No, we are paying a few hundred million dollars for each and they will not be delivered till 2024. This weapons sale was signed 3 years ago and was extremely controversial because of the high cost. It led to government break-up and a loss in the next elections. You know nothing about it. We were offered much cheaper Gripen Swedish fighters available immediately, but somebody insisted. This is not a popular topic, we have no reason to spend 2-3% of our GDP for "advanced fighter jets". Who against?

    By the way, where is the "Makarov" ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  849. Serhiy thinks the war has progressed beyond a reality TV show and the shit is getting real:

  850. German_reader says:
    @utu
    @German_reader


    If these demands would be met to their full extent, the German army wouldn’t have much materiel left.
     
    This is what you guys really want, isn't it?. You do not want to have to face the dilemma whether to pull the trigger when the Russians will be coming. No weapons no psychological trauma. Unless you need those weapons to defend against France or Denmark.

    "The idea that Germany delivers weapons that could then be used to kill Russians is very difficult to stomach for many Germans," Marcel Dirsus, a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), told DW.
     

    Replies: @German_reader

    Anti-German comments like yours are intended to sow dissension within NATO.
    imo you’re a Russian troll. Probably working straight from the Lubyanka.

    • Agree: Thulean Friend
  851. utu says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/imf-report-issued-after-the-nuclear

    We truly live in the End Times when a somewhat mainstream economist is speculating what things will look like after Russia-NATO MAD. China rules the world by then.

    Replies: @utu

    “China rules the world by then.” – No, China should know its place as it has always been in history, Taiwan is independent and sovereign state. China will throw some tantrums and that’s all of China flexing its muscle.

    Mr. China, concentrate on your internal market. That’s where your happy future is. Forget about the dreams of being the world power. Concentrate on making the Chinese happy and affluent. You do not not need Vietnamese, Koreans , Filipinos or Taiwanese for it.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @utu

    You didn't even read the (totally and speculatively fictional) piece I linked. Memento mori for your Western Supremacy. (Wasn't you favoring something you call "cosmism"?)

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @utu

    FOR YELLOWFACE ANON:

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.

    Honestly, if nuclear war ever broke out between Russia and NATO, I would back the first salvo from both participants being sent straight to China. Not because it would be fair, as fair is a specious concept, but just because of the slimy small d*ck energy that emanates from every pro-Chinese partisan who always salivates over death and destruction elsewhere in the world so that their pinprick ego might not feel so inadequate in the aftermath. And yes, inadequate you do feel. It grosses me out even here on the other side of the world.

    Bigger yes, but the paragraph above is quite literally a giant f*ck you. And I actually like Chinese people. I just find your persona here repulsive. No joke. Though in vino veritas and all. Stop being such a tw*t.

    Everything in italics is all you need to know about yourself for this stage in your life.

  852. @utu
    Douglas Murray: The gullible Right has fallen for Putin (Apr 25, 2022)
    youtube.com/watch?v=xW0qWXUaHZk

    I do not know Murray's track record on Putin so I do not know how much of what he is saying now is driven by his bad conscience and seeking for alibis.

    The rightoids and trad conservative Christians and non Christians, HBDists and IQists fell for Putin for different reasons but there is a common denominator that is trivial on psychological level. Obviously Kremlin propaganda preyed on their susceptibilities. The greatest Putin's feat was to create and adopt the largest ever (since Lenin and Stalin) pro-Russian influx via anti-covid and anti-vaxx disinformation Ron Unz's continued shilling for Putin is still for another reasons which however, will be revealed sooner than later.

    The West is the Best and Russia and China are not part of it. But Japan is and everybody is happy. The West in its wisdom is forgiving and will welcome Russian with open arms once Russia recognizes and acknowledges it is mentally ill. Rejecting the denial is the first step of recovery.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Yevardian

    I’m familiar with Douglas Murray from Spectator magazine (haven’t read it in years though), he’s always been a hack echoing the most generic conventional narrative, I don’t think anything of him.

    And come on, I can’t believe you really think ‘Russia will be opened with open arms’, whatever happens, you’re either riling people or seriously losing perspective.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  853. AP says:
    @songbird
    @German_reader

    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston. So far, he hasn't done it, and I don't think there is much hope of him finding one in Patagonia.

    Replies: @AP

    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston.

    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:

    And of course Buenos Aires.

    Cordoba Argentina is only about 100 miles further from the equator than is Savannah Georgia:

    You don’t have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?

    I suppose that Tibetan dogs can explain the discrepancy?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP


    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:
     
    First, you need to explain why the Spanish colony in Georgia failed.

    San Miguel de Guadalupe founded by Lucas Vázques de Ayllón was a settlement that the Spanish established in Georgia in 1526, some years before Santiago in Chile. It only lasted several months. Possibly due to endemic malaria, which I am sure cursed Georgia for the full period it was controlled by the English.

    Spaniards had nominal control over Georgia for some time. The English only founded Savannah in 1733.

    You don’t have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?
     
    Don't you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt

    Replies: @Yevardian

  854. @Thulean Friend
    @Philip Owen


    Turkey will be the biggest winner if it can get its economic act together.
     
    https://i.imgur.com/MEFARd4.png

    That's a big if. Turkey's trade deficits are racking up, inflation is at 70% and the currency is in a "soft peg".

    Sure, tourism season is likely to be better this year but Turkey imports a lot of oil and food which more than cancels out those gains, as import prices have risen a lot more than what they export, and volume increases cannot make up for that.

    As one of a very few customers, Turkey will be able to demand interesting prices for Russian gas and perhaps oil.
     
    Most of Asia continues to buy Russian oil, which is where the future growth is. Turkey will not be in a position to dictate, and if anything will be prone to blackmail themselves from the West given their membership in NATO and their perilous financial position. Beggars can't be choosers.

    Replies: @songbird, @Wielgus, @Lurker

    if it can get its economic act together.

    Doesn’t that apply to every country?

  855. @utu
    @Yellowface Anon

    "China rules the world by then." - No, China should know its place as it has always been in history, Taiwan is independent and sovereign state. China will throw some tantrums and that's all of China flexing its muscle.

    Mr. China, concentrate on your internal market. That's where your happy future is. Forget about the dreams of being the world power. Concentrate on making the Chinese happy and affluent. You do not not need Vietnamese, Koreans , Filipinos or Taiwanese for it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    You didn’t even read the (totally and speculatively fictional) piece I linked. Memento mori for your Western Supremacy. (Wasn’t you favoring something you call “cosmism”?)

  856. @Yevardian
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Cynically, but understandably, Putin after Kiev has decided to conduct the war in a way that brutally attritions Ukraine, while imposing minimal costs on Russian society (well, beyond easy access to some Western brands). Slow, plodding, artillery-heavy, casualty-light advances means that the inflow of volunteers is always sufficient to keep the Russian forces fresh and replenished, while Ukrainians just die in very large numbers in the Donbass.
     
    Question here. Given such massive annihilation of the country's entire infrastructure along much of the best of Ukrainian youth, even assuming attainment maximal military objectives, was this war really worth it? Reconstruction will (conservatively) cost tens of billions of dollars (don't know how type scientific notation required for googles of roubles required).

    It ultimately depends on the Ukrainians how long they want to or are willing to stretch this out for. Could be half a year, could be a year, could even be 2-3 years, if Zelensky goes into Solana López mode.
     

    3 years? Jesus. Pretty horrifying prospect.
    Don't forget that at this point the West doesn't even need to pretend it's doing anything other than stoking brushfires across the Caucasus and Central Asia while this goes on. Or the impact weathervane 'friends' like Turkey or Iran (perhaps even China, if PajeetPerspective is right) could have on Russia's strategic position as well. Iranian media in particular has began to cautiously rumour hope about being able escape sanctions, if Europe stops taking Russian oil it's not as if they'll have much choice but to go to Iran to stopgap the shortfall. Turkey will probably test what strength Russia has in Syria or Armenia too, very easy to see how ugly that could get.

    Again, understandable any ethnic Russian should feel blackmailed into uncomfortably standing behind Z-War (given the apocalyptic chain of events with at least 33% chance of panning out if they lose) but could you at least admit this war (or rather, the scale of war you wanted, careful what you wish for) was a mistake from a national interest if not a humanitarian POV?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    “Scientific notation for GOOGLES of rubles required” to make “billions of dollars” of repairs in the ukraine? How transparent and disingenuous. You’re attempting to imply that it takes thousands of rubles to buy one mighty dollar.

    Laughable even given the value of the ruble at its low. Even more laughable now, given that the ruble has surged from its low around 140 to the dollar, to the high sixties per dollar, in just the past two months.

    Russians are in the right this time; they did what they had to, with far fewer civilian casualties than the US military would have inflicted based on their behavior in recent decades.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @RadicalCenter


    “Scientific notation for GOOGLES of rubles required” to make “billions of dollars” of repairs in the ukraine? How transparent and disingenuous. You’re attempting to imply that it takes thousands of rubles to buy one mighty dollar.
     
    The point wasn't measuring against the dollar so much as simply pointing out the punitive costs of reconstruction, in tandem with worldwide inflation, for any territory Russia decides to annex. But unfortunately it seems the 'People's Republic' model is here to stay, as it provides a military buffer whilst also divesting the Russian state of direct responsibility over day-to-day admin. Ultimately a lose-lose situation for both Russia and Ukraine, whatever happens.
    I don't have anything nice to say about American intelligence's fingerprints all over the build-up to this war either, simple question of qui bono from this conflict answers itself.

    Russians are in the right this time; they did what they had to, with far fewer civilian casualties than the US military would have inflicted based on their behavior in recent decades.
     
    Russian reticence about creating civilian casualties was true in the early stages of the war, definitely not the case now, albeit for reasons of military necessity.
  857. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine is better at fighting invasions by much larger powers than preventing them starting.
     
    It can do more about the former than about the latter. Large foreign countries covet Ukrainian land.

    They did not think Putin was serious.
     
    This is doubtful, behind the scenes. It turns out that the Ukrainian military were relatively well prepared for this invasion.

    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to - no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces. The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood. Historically this has been the fate, sooner or later, of all small nations bordering Russia. Is it about all these small nations being bad at preventing invasions, or about Russia itself?

    Replies: @Sean

    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to – no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces

    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato. But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato. Zelensky seemed amenable to such a resolution, but the integral nationalist climate of opinion whipped up by Poroshenko since 2004 was too opposed.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood

    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them. Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia. There was no choice that did not lead to war?

    https://www.traditionalright.com/playing-with-nuclear-war-and-some-advice-for-my-friends-in-sweden/
    A deal could look something like this:

    Ukraine sells the portions of Luhansk and Donetsk that had already declared their independence to Russia, along with a narrow land corridor connecting them to Crimea (which remains Russian). The price is high enough to make a substantial contribution to re-building Ukraine.

    Ukraine agrees not to join NATO unless Russia also joins. That would leave open the door to the alliance Christendom needs, one running from the U.S. Pacific coast to the Russian Pacific coast, oriented south.

    Russia agrees to Ukraine joining the EU.

    Russia cedes East Prussia (the “Kaliningrad Oblast”) to Ukraine, giving Ukraine a Baltic as well as a Black Sea outlet for her grain exports. Russia also funds building a new, high capacity railway, not running through Belarus, connecting Ukraine with the East Prussian port of Konigsberg.

    What does Ukraine think of all this? It doesn’t matter. In true Bismarkian style, the great powers make the deal and inform the smaller powers what they are going to do. Otherwise, no deal is possible in cases such as this

    .

    • Replies: @AP
    @Sean


    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato.
     
    And, more importantly, the EU.

    But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato
     
    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO, Russia wasn't invading due to NATO.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood

    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them.
     

    Sure, but it was understood by everyone that this was not going to happen anytime soon, if at all.

    Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia.
     
    Do you believe all the Kremlin's claims?

    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West economically, its economy and military were improving, and the later Russia invaded the harder the invasion would be. 2022 would be harder than 2014, but a lot easier than 2030. If Russia was going to force a union, time was running out. Karlin made an argument similar to this, he was absolutely correct. NATO had nothing to do with it other than being something to say. So this was the last chance to keep Ukraine in Russia's orbit by force.

    Unless Ukraine was willing to demilitarize and to abandon its western course it was going to get invaded. So Ukraine wasn't really given a real choice.

    Replies: @Sean

  858. awry says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Sean

    Sorry, I don't buy this vague foreboding. Russia wants to pretend that this is an existential crisis for them. Indeed, it is this pretense that is their final justification for this catastrophe, yet they really only got into it because they thought that it would be easy and over before anyone reacted. Everything after day 3, and when it became clear that they could not win, has been a farce.

    Let me also admit something. Had Russia rolled in and Ukraine not met them with serious resistance, so that Russia had been able to put a puppet government in Kyiv, I would not have objected. It would have been a display of consent from Ukraine and barely any blood would have bee shed. Who would I be to say that they should have fought harder? They would have made their choice.

    Furthermore, Putin really would have been a great leader. However, a great leader is one who recognises reality and what can be done, and takes into account their own natural feeling from various actions. Anyone who tells me that every Russian is not, on some level, feeling a crushing sorrow about this war, is deluded, whether those Russians are conscious of their sorrow or not.

    This is because reality is that Ukraine is not part of Russia, as proven on the battlefield, and given that it was already proven on day 3, Putin should have had the courage to admit that his perception of reality was off, and gone home. Every minute after that has been a disaster and lowers his measure as a man. The same can be said of this war's supporters. Their measure is shifting downwards as the sands of time.

    The fact is that this war should end now because Russia can just go home, apologise, and make some superficial internal changes to their administration and the nightmare they began ends. Those sands stop falling, and indeed, begin to slowly rise again as things heal. Little kindnesses, born of self-reflection, will spring up and self-forgiveness will raise them higher. The sooner, the better.

    And yes, one of those "superficial changes" will likely have to be Putin resigning, but making a scapegoat of your 70 year old leader and letting the poor grandpa retire in semi-ignominy to his dacha is hardly threatening. It is the last good thing he can do for his people anyway. A final act of genuine heroism. A sacrifice of his public image for the good of the country he loves: a moment almost beatific.

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway. There is no lack of land there. The Western world will be delighted to grandstand morally, while paying for redevelopment and will be extremely keen to have things run harmoniously.

    Even Ukrainian-Russian ties do not have to be bad. The winners in a conflict have an amazing way of forgiving the losers. Russia's atrocities have not yet reached the multi-generational moral stain level. They only need show some remorse and humility and things will move on.

    As for countries "ignoring" other countries on their borders joining alliances, as always arguments justifying Russian actions rely on meaningless vagaries, at least ever since the cakewalk triune nation justification went out the window. The truth is that there is a chasm between not "ignoring" and invading. Please stop with this nonsense of going from 0 to absolute and being blind to everything in between.

    Yes, Russia did try much of the in-between, but Russia failed. Knowing when to take an L is what makes a great leader, just as much as knowing when to seize an opportunity. Escalating out of an L is usually the quick path to tragedy

    And this is where we find Russia. With no way forward except to take the L, they should have taken ages ago, when it was much lighter, or perhaps they can barrel forward with dark mutterings of escalation, even as their L gets heavier by the day. Already, their propaganda and partisans have been exposed as lies, liars and mush-minded fools. Their institutions have been shown to be inert and their leaders bunglers, but they have not yet been given the mark of true evil. Any escalation will give that to them.

    Worse for Russia, the West can escalate on Ukraine's behalf much more effectively than Russia. If Russia uses a tactical nuke, they can kiss all of their international relationships goodbye, for what they are, but the West can also respond against the Russian army with conventional munitions and obliterate it. They need only tell Russia what they are going to do and limit their involvement to Ukrainian soil. No one will consider it anything but a light touch, especially if sufficient warning is given. Do not underestimate the profound outrage that will follow in every country if a nuclear bomb goes off. There will be no more excuses, vagaries or playing around. People will actually, for the first time, feel existentially threatened, and they will not forgive.

    Otherwise, Russia can mobilise, but then there will be millions of Russians in Russia who will not want to go to war, but who will be armed. That would be a genuine danger to the regime.

    Furthermore, the war would be over prior to general mobilisation changing it. The effect would take two months and the professional Russian army will certainly be defeated by then. In other words, it will make no difference now.

    So let's all hope Putin can see this and has the courage to act accordingly. There is still a chance for him to sign a deal that offers him the hope of a neutrally-administered referendum in Lugansk and the Donbas, which admittedly he will lose, but also in the Crimea, which will save Russia some pride. Ukraine now has power over whether sanctions are lifted, but their full effect is yet to be felt, and war reparations can buy them off.

    If you can't be the conquering warlord who wins without bloodshed, at least be the man bold enough to admit your mistakes. The latter is no less of a hero. In fact, they are the same man, but merely in different realities. They are men attuned to the truth.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @Sean, @PhysicistDave, @awry

    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway.

    Ukraine is far from liberal in that respect. Zelenskiy’s government banned some opposition parties, imprisoned or forced to exile some opposition politicians (one was extradited by Spain recently), banned most opposition media, and since the war started it placed all media under government control (the latter is understandable). SBU works like Gestapo or KGB, disappearing or executing dissenters “Nacht und Nebel” style (nationalist militias also, they did some quite nastly stuff in 2014). Supporting Russia was a life risk in Ukraine since 2014, not just since February 24. Ukraine will be a borderline fascistic country after this war, in some respects it already resembled one, like the ubiquitous blue-yellow colors everywhere (even on lampposts), the ubiquitous “Slava Ukraini” slogan and other expressions of ultra-nationalistic sentiment etc. Ukrainian nationalists have long been making online hit lists of those disagreeing with them, disclosing their personal details, home addresses, etc. and encouraged them to be killed or harassed. Now they are also calling for the death of the Hungarian Prime Minister along with many other Hungarian and other European politicians.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @awry

    Get a grip. I cannot think of a government that has ever been as liberal and tolerant while their cities are destroyed and people are murdered. Your carping hysteria is context-inappropriate. You stupid.

    E.g were I Ukrainian and in Kharkiv I would personally kick Gonzala Lira down the stairs before running down afterwards and stamping on his head, and I know that everyone deserves love and compassion.

    You see, although misused by psychopaths, there still actually is such a thing as asking for it, and living in Ukraine while the entire might of the Russian military is trying to obliterate it, and supporting such obliteration, is more than asking to get lynched, it is full-on begging for it.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @awry

  859. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    My countrymen had an old piece of junk to maintain, with no conceivable military or other purpose. Then the war started and an opportunity came to give them away.
     
    Trying to pull the wool over people's eye twice in such a short period of time? What's the matter, didn't you read AP's reply regarding this point in reply #829? Besides trying to help the Ukrainians keep the Russian horde out of Ukraine, the Slovaks are going to receive newer fighter jets in return from the West. The Ukrainians have been quite successful at using these older planes, and know exactly how to operate them.

    Replies: @Beckow

    AP in #829 says the same as what I say, just in a typical AP’s manner he is hyper optimistic and distracts with redundant details.

    The Migs were “upgraded” about 10-12 years ago just so they can still fly. They are 40 years old and use a very low level of technology. They are not a show-changer and no sane pilot will take them up into a fight.

    receive newer fighter jets in return from the West.

    Receive? No, we are paying a few hundred million dollars for each and they will not be delivered till 2024. This weapons sale was signed 3 years ago and was extremely controversial because of the high cost. It led to government break-up and a loss in the next elections. You know nothing about it. We were offered much cheaper Gripen Swedish fighters available immediately, but somebody insisted. This is not a popular topic, we have no reason to spend 2-3% of our GDP for “advanced fighter jets”. Who against?

    By the way, where is the “Makarov” ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    By the way, where is the “Makarov” ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?
     
    The Ukrainians have only claimed that it was hit, never confirming that it was sunk. Are the Ukrainians lying?

    Replies: @Beckow

  860. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    AP in #829 says the same as what I say, just in a typical AP's manner he is hyper optimistic and distracts with redundant details.

    The Migs were "upgraded" about 10-12 years ago just so they can still fly. They are 40 years old and use a very low level of technology. They are not a show-changer and no sane pilot will take them up into a fight.


    receive newer fighter jets in return from the West.
     
    Receive? No, we are paying a few hundred million dollars for each and they will not be delivered till 2024. This weapons sale was signed 3 years ago and was extremely controversial because of the high cost. It led to government break-up and a loss in the next elections. You know nothing about it. We were offered much cheaper Gripen Swedish fighters available immediately, but somebody insisted. This is not a popular topic, we have no reason to spend 2-3% of our GDP for "advanced fighter jets". Who against?

    By the way, where is the "Makarov" ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    By the way, where is the “Makarov” ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?

    The Ukrainians have only claimed that it was hit, never confirming that it was sunk. Are the Ukrainians lying?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    Somebody lied. In the video Makarov ship looks undamaged.

    Another dog that didn't bark: the heroic Kiev pilot who shot "40 Russian planes", the 10 killed generals, etc... Nobody will take Kiev seriously. They seem to think they will win by fantastic-magoric PR stunts. I doubt it, they look unserious.

  861. @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    By the way, where is the “Makarov” ship? I just saw it in Sebastopol video, are Russians lying?
     
    The Ukrainians have only claimed that it was hit, never confirming that it was sunk. Are the Ukrainians lying?

    Replies: @Beckow

    Somebody lied. In the video Makarov ship looks undamaged.

    Another dog that didn’t bark: the heroic Kiev pilot who shot “40 Russian planes”, the 10 killed generals, etc… Nobody will take Kiev seriously. They seem to think they will win by fantastic-magoric PR stunts. I doubt it, they look unserious.

  862. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    On another note, seems like the credulous bought into yet another Ukrofake.

    https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1522915350035247105

    However, the failed Ukrainian amphibious assault on Snake Island - apparently to get a symbolic victory for May 9 - seems to have been real and failed catastrophically.

    If so yet more meat for my comparison of the UkSSR to the Soviet Union, getting military operations done to coincide with important dates was a feature of both (but not of the far less ideologized Putinist Russia).

    Replies: @AP

    the failed Ukrainian amphibious assault on Snake Island – apparently to get a symbolic victory for May 9 – seems to have been real and failed catastrophically.

    No, that was fake. Allegedly nonexistent Ukrainian Air Force just keeps bombing Snake Island, no attempt to storm it. Putting soldiers there as sacrifices would be a stupid thing to do, worthy of the Russian military.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: sudden death
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).

    Replies: @AP

  863. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Sean

    Would you actually think Russia won't escalate to attack NATO and increase the chance for a MAD with destructions of population centers occur?

    If you think population centers will more likely be spared under nuclear wars than not, would Europe, Russia or the US end up more similar to Central-Eastern Europe (Germany included) or Japan post-WWII, where there were still most of the pre-war population to rebuild?

    Replies: @Sean

    I happen to think that nuclear weapons are a deterrent to nuclear war, and neither the US or USSR had any intention of first using nuclear weapons. A Soviet attac on the West would have been conventional. An 1980s WW3 would have been fpught win or lose completely conventional, especially by America because its industrial and economic strength would give them more of an advantage over the Soviet Unions if the war was kept conventional, which would have entailed it being longer and global.

    For me the threat of an incredible act is not deterring anyone, although it may have been trumpeted as official policy. nuclear armed state need not fear a nuke being used against it, which is especially true of Russia Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons to retaliate in kind with. No other country would do it for them because Russia would retaliate and America hardly want to get into thermonuclear war in which Russia would be a match for the West in a way it is not in conventional war.

    I do not believe in the aftermath of a tactical battlefield thermonuclear weapon use by Russia in Ukraine that Nato would attack the tactical warhead nuclear facilities of Russia with conventional weapons’ is be an act of war very close to using a nuke. No one is going to do that to Russia. I do not believe that any country would first use nukes against a nuclear armed country/ alliance member, but Ukraine is neither of those.

    Nor would a nuclear armed third party country attack the stored nuclear weapons’ of a nuclear state that had nuked a non nuclear state, because that would be a counterforce strike and likely to be interpreted as an act of nuclear war warranting a tactical nuclear specimen strike to demonstrate resolve. Nato would not send conventional forces into Ukraine after a Russian tactical nuke was used because you cannot fight conventionally against nukes. The sanctions would be permanent of course but Russia have been sanctioned under one pretext or another since the 70s. I think Putin had years ago discounted Russia ever being sanction-free.

  864. @AP
    @songbird


    I am still waiting for AP to find a giant cathedral built in the 1500s in South America, at the same distance from the equator as Boston.
     
    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/Catedral_Metropolitana_de_Santiago.jpg/800px-Catedral_Metropolitana_de_Santiago.jpg

    And of course Buenos Aires.

    Cordoba Argentina is only about 100 miles further from the equator than is Savannah Georgia:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/CATEDRALDIA2.jpg/1280px-CATEDRALDIA2.jpg

    You don't have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?

    I suppose that Tibetan dogs can explain the discrepancy?

    Replies: @songbird

    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:

    First, you need to explain why the Spanish colony in Georgia failed.

    San Miguel de Guadalupe founded by Lucas Vázques de Ayllón was a settlement that the Spanish established in Georgia in 1526, some years before Santiago in Chile. It only lasted several months. Possibly due to endemic malaria, which I am sure cursed Georgia for the full period it was controlled by the English.

    Spaniards had nominal control over Georgia for some time. The English only founded Savannah in 1733.

    You don’t have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?

    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @songbird


    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt
     
    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that's not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @songbird, @Barbarossa

  865. @Coconuts
    @AP


    Russian Empire had become Russian Nationalist in the mid to late 19th century, German Empire was (simplistically perhaps) a German nationalist project, and France was consumed by nationalism.
     
    This is correct, but Nationalism has multiple different meanings. Right-wing French monarchist nationalists like Action Francaise were eager to fight Germany to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine, but had no interest in Republican nationalist projects of incorporating the world into a French Liberal civilisation. Britain joined the war to protect its empire and its nationalistic, but simultaneously universalist, project of expanding Anglo-Liberalism throughout the world. I don't know about Russia, was this another case of trying to incorporate many different ethnic groups and peoples into a single 'Russian' civilisation?

    Contemporary Nationalism means something closer to what the French monarchists were talking about, or Irish nationalism, Lithuanian nationalism, Ukrainian etc. These were more orientated towards preservation of a particular ethnic group and its state, or giving an ethnic group its own political presence and expression.

    This is why the claim that WW1 was caused by nationalism, when it is said nowadays, seems strange. It at least requires some clarification of what brand of nationalism is being referred to.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    France was the first big integrated nation state.

    When the US Revolution happened there were perhaps 3 million colonists. There were 7 million British and around 20 million French. The French were infact the dominant Imperial power by a factor of 3, concerning the Americas, North Africa and India. They should have wiped out the British given these population figures.

    I’ve only recently deep dived on the Empire of Elizabeth of Russia. She pushed Frederick around like a schoolboy punk, so perhaps the Russians ought to be carefully assessed as a coming power in the middle 1700s too. The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.

    • Agree: Coconuts
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Wokechoke


    ...The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.
     
    Berlin was in the 18th century still primarily fighting the Habsburg Empire - it was a 150 year struggle for domination of the German world, and by extension Central Europe. Vienna had a head start: they were more prestigious than the upstart Prussians. Vienna also had the Pope in their corner and the recent glory of defeating Turks.

    But demography is destiny: Habsburgs had a multi-national mess on their hands, while Prussia was fully German other than some Polish regions. The outcome was predictable. Sweden and Poland were the big losers in the 18th century - they are still bitter: with Germans emasculated what they have left is deep resentment of Russia.

    Replies: @Wielgus

  866. @RadicalCenter
    @Yevardian

    “Scientific notation for GOOGLES of rubles required” to make “billions of dollars” of repairs in the ukraine? How transparent and disingenuous. You’re attempting to imply that it takes thousands of rubles to buy one mighty dollar.

    Laughable even given the value of the ruble at its low. Even more laughable now, given that the ruble has surged from its low around 140 to the dollar, to the high sixties per dollar, in just the past two months.

    Russians are in the right this time; they did what they had to, with far fewer civilian casualties than the US military would have inflicted based on their behavior in recent decades.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    “Scientific notation for GOOGLES of rubles required” to make “billions of dollars” of repairs in the ukraine? How transparent and disingenuous. You’re attempting to imply that it takes thousands of rubles to buy one mighty dollar.

    The point wasn’t measuring against the dollar so much as simply pointing out the punitive costs of reconstruction, in tandem with worldwide inflation, for any territory Russia decides to annex. But unfortunately it seems the ‘People’s Republic’ model is here to stay, as it provides a military buffer whilst also divesting the Russian state of direct responsibility over day-to-day admin. Ultimately a lose-lose situation for both Russia and Ukraine, whatever happens.
    I don’t have anything nice to say about American intelligence’s fingerprints all over the build-up to this war either, simple question of qui bono from this conflict answers itself.

    Russians are in the right this time; they did what they had to, with far fewer civilian casualties than the US military would have inflicted based on their behavior in recent decades.

    Russian reticence about creating civilian casualties was true in the early stages of the war, definitely not the case now, albeit for reasons of military necessity.

  867. @German_reader
    Some funny video clips from Germany:

    https://twitter.com/lobbybach/status/1522147844882411520

    The grotesque figures shown there are all members of parliament. The fat girl almost at the start is the new chairwoman of the Greens (strongly in favour of body positivity).

    Replies: @Coconuts

    • Agree: German_reader
  868. @songbird
    @AP


    Why not the same distance as Atlanta, also settled by Anglos? That would be Santiago, Chile:
     
    First, you need to explain why the Spanish colony in Georgia failed.

    San Miguel de Guadalupe founded by Lucas Vázques de Ayllón was a settlement that the Spanish established in Georgia in 1526, some years before Santiago in Chile. It only lasted several months. Possibly due to endemic malaria, which I am sure cursed Georgia for the full period it was controlled by the English.

    Spaniards had nominal control over Georgia for some time. The English only founded Savannah in 1733.

    You don’t have to go to South America though. Santa Fe is on the same line as Charlotte, Nashville, Durham, etc. How were the Indians in those lands treated by the Anglo-Saxons?
     
    Don't you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt

    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that’s not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders
     
    Pueblo Amerindians were a settled agricultural population. They seem to have disliked Spanish rule so much that they made a coordinated effort to kill all Hispanics in their region (and actually succeeded in evicting the Spanish for more than a decade).

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua
     
    After the great Andean uprising in 1780/81 the Spanish apparently tried to ban it.
    imo it's a silly debate. I guess songbird felt provoked into re-opening it by what he terms, with some justification, "universal Ukrainian nationalism".
    , @Philip Owen
    @Yevardian

    Under British rule, the natives were considered owners of their land and could not be evicted. They could sell. Harvard taught native scholars in theology and law. The natives were not uninformed. The civilized tribes became that way due to broadly ethical treatment. Washington and Jefferson among others made shady land deals, claiming to have negotiated with native non entities and thus acquiring the land. The British brought in the Proclamation Act saying only tribal councils could sell and only the British Government could buy. This became the mechanism across the Empire if there was no local land law. The colonists objections to this act caused the American Revolution. Initially native land law didnt change but in 1812 virtually all natives sided with the British. So in 1825 under Andrew Jackson the US changed the native status from owners of their own land to occupiers of Federal land. Hence Jackson's genocides and the atrocities of the western expansion.

    The Spanish simply seized the land for the Crown with no compensation. The natives were enslaved. The Spanish were mostly male so seized those native women who survived disease as forced concubines. The population densities were higher in Mexico and Peru than North America so native survivors or at least their mixed race descendants still had enough population mass to retain some of their identity. The Spanish started as monsters (at least in Mexico against other monsters) but became less awful. Most English settlements started as virtuous but became, at least in the US, a monster. In what is now Canada, the British kept their treaties. The natives ended up poor anyway but rather more often alive.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke

    , @songbird
    @Yevardian


    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that’s not a parallel example.
     
    The Pueblo were a settled people. That is why the Spanish gave them the name Pueblo - it means "village." They built multi-storied homes, clustered together which actually has no parallel to Indians in Anglo areas, probably because it was a different climate, and corn grew better there. The River Pueblos used irrigation.

    And the Comanche weren't horse-riders, at the time of the Pueblo revolt. They were still using dogs to drag their tents in 1725.

    like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.
     

    What exactly do you mean by "comparable development?"

    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.


    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement
     
    Lots of Basque placenames in Mexico. Millions of people of Basque descent in Latin America.

    I'm not familiar with this ban you speak of, but if you are suggesting that it was because they wanted to maintain the ethnic integrity of their colony that is incompatible with what they did on Hispaniola, were they created a new people by planned miscegenation - Dominicans to help hold the territory for strategic purposes. In this area, they didn't use Spanish women because they died of diseases, so there weren't many of them there.


    UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women
     
    the conquistadors who conquered the Inca first took native women, since it was difficult getting there. Once they acquired wealth, they sent back to Spain for Spanish wives, whose full-blooded children where favored over the half-breeds.

    Inca Garcilaso de la Vega wrote about it in his Comentarios Reales de los Incas, which I did read, years ago.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Barbarossa
    @Yevardian

    I don't see where it is particularly meaningful to make sweeping claims that the Spanish or the English were widely better or worse. It was too much of a mix based on self interest. In either case the leaders back in the Old World seemed more inclined to treat the natives more fairly while the settlers were more inclined to be rapacious.

    It was of course easier for the Pope or an English monarch to see the situation with a bit more high minded detachment than the settlers who stood to gain directly from taking from the natives.

    Anyhow, the policies of any of the European settlers and governments were insignificant compared to the indiscriminate and devastating toll that Euro diseases took.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  869. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @songbird


    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt
     
    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that's not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @songbird, @Barbarossa

    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders

    Pueblo Amerindians were a settled agricultural population. They seem to have disliked Spanish rule so much that they made a coordinated effort to kill all Hispanics in their region (and actually succeeded in evicting the Spanish for more than a decade).

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua

    After the great Andean uprising in 1780/81 the Spanish apparently tried to ban it.
    imo it’s a silly debate. I guess songbird felt provoked into re-opening it by what he terms, with some justification, “universal Ukrainian nationalism”.

  870. @Wokechoke
    ww2 by the numbers...of soldiers on each front.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CqGeAmVu1I

    Brilliant illustration of how to quantify war.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Not really. What mattered once the British Empire had fended off the German attack was making atom bombs and the planes to deliver them. The UK/Canadian bomb would have been ready by 1947. The US accelerated progress (more uranium for the separation process).

    The land war was secondary. Without the Royal Navy to guide supplies to Murmansk and Iran, Russia would have failed in 1941 or 1942. Most Russian losses were self imposed. Due to appalling tactics and complete breakdown (abondonment) of civilian supplies. Bolshevik food security was always terrible even in peace.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Philip Owen


    The land war was secondary.
     
    Yes, Germany surely would have starved and surrendered with only the whole of Europe to feed and equip itself.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.
     
    It's true the USSR almost certainly would have collapsed militarily in 1941 without massive Western assistance, but its pretty unarguable that no other country would have been willing to even continue war with the Reich without the USSR taking the vast brunt of the fighing. Almost certainly the US would have de-escalated to a 'Cold War' with the Reich instead (I cannot see even the Americans nuking cities across Europe before the Nazis got their own), except with their far greater resources and more efficient admin it never would have collapsed as the USSR did.

    Replies: @keypusher

  871. @AP
    @Yevardian


    "Russia is no longer an Empire nor the USSR. It is Tsardom of Muscovy at war"

    Disagree. Russia is still very much governed by an Empire mentality, as it has been ever since Ivan IV conquered Kazan and had to find of way of integrating the enormous numbers of Muslims suddenly inside it.
     

    You are right in a way. I was thinking mostly about geographic extent - Russia is about where it had been in 1650 (plus some areas in the Far East), when it had captured Tatar lands and those of some tribals but had not yet expanded into non-Russian populated European lands (Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics) or Central Asia. That is, it is about 80% Russian rather than 50% Russian.

    But it has inherited some imperial attributes and is not an ethnic Russian nation-state.


    Ironically, in some limited ways Ukraine very much represents the sort of state Russian Nationalists (real ethnic ones, I mean) have long dreamed of having, especially with all rightoid and Slavic-pagan paraphernalia.
     
    Pretty much. Ukraine is about 98% Slavic, about as pure as Belarus and Poland, versus Russia being about 80% Slavic. Of these three, Poland is of course West Slavic and Belarus is deracinated and sort of a Russian-Soviet backwater. Only Ukraine has its own, robust East Slavic identity that people are willing to kill and die for on a large scale.

    Btw, AP, do you know of any good Ukrainian films? The only thing I’ve seen was Тени забытых предков, by Armenian director Parajanov.

     

    That's the only one I could think of that was a very good film. Лісова пісня. Мавка wasn't bad either IIRC but I don't remember it as well as I do Тени забытых предков so it's probably not as good.

    There are also those charming cartoons with Cossacks and the one with the dog and his wolf friend.

    Would the Polish film with the Ukrainian actors, Fire and Sword, count?

    Winter on Fire is a well-made documentary/propaganda film.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    This, about the Donbas. It’s real horror and dark humour with an ending to make you think.

    https://easterneuropeanmovies.com/drama/donbass?fbclid=IwAR1GWY2F0VWPEqKlCLfe8ibJkU1oVr1f2WEHn4CSj5xXa4QG4cKudBk2a6M

  872. @Wokechoke
    @Coconuts

    France was the first big integrated nation state.

    When the US Revolution happened there were perhaps 3 million colonists. There were 7 million British and around 20 million French. The French were infact the dominant Imperial power by a factor of 3, concerning the Americas, North Africa and India. They should have wiped out the British given these population figures.

    I’ve only recently deep dived on the Empire of Elizabeth of Russia. She pushed Frederick around like a schoolboy punk, so perhaps the Russians ought to be carefully assessed as a coming power in the middle 1700s too. The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.

    Berlin was in the 18th century still primarily fighting the Habsburg Empire – it was a 150 year struggle for domination of the German world, and by extension Central Europe. Vienna had a head start: they were more prestigious than the upstart Prussians. Vienna also had the Pope in their corner and the recent glory of defeating Turks.

    But demography is destiny: Habsburgs had a multi-national mess on their hands, while Prussia was fully German other than some Polish regions. The outcome was predictable. Sweden and Poland were the big losers in the 18th century – they are still bitter: with Germans emasculated what they have left is deep resentment of Russia.

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Beckow

    When Napoleon returned from Elba Prussia sent an army to fight him, but it consisted heavily of Landwehr reservists,many from newly annexed parts of Germany, and was somewhat scantily equipped. The main reason seems to have been that they kept their best units at home, in case they needed them against their distrusted Austrian "ally", although overt conflict with Austria did not occur until 1866.

  873. @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    It seems the nuclear blackmail is partially a hedge to avoid or at least delay mass-mobilisation and attempt to maintain the illusion of relative domestic normalcy, which blows my mind.
     
    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn't it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?

    The American leaders making such threats haven't been top officials, but surely those aren't the sorts of statements that should go unanswered.

    And don't forget the public calls for Putin's assassination by the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary committee. How would Americans react if Russian leaders had publicly called for the assassination of Bush or Obama or Trump?

    Replies: @A123, @Yevardian

    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?

    I wasn’t aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that? I admit just withdrew any close following at all of American government affairs in disgust early in the Trump administration, as he filled up his cabinet with people like John Bolton.
    But if US officials have really called for Putin’s assassination as government statements, I’m not sure what the right reaction to that is. Is a ‘Madman’ doctrine on both sides really the way to go?

    But the criticism is more that Putin seems to be going for an escalation of nuclear rhetoric, in lieu of escalating conventional military for this ‘The Special Operation’ (maybe soon, who knows). Of course, I’m far from any expert, but considering that US itself is to all intents and purposes at war with Russia (giving direct intelligence in aiding Ukraine to assassinate generals and presumably sink that Battleship in the Black Sea), Putin isn’t quite treating this war as the existential national emergency that it is. Other than the absence of actual foreign troops, Russia has essentially stumbled into war with all of NATO, the force multiplier for Ukrainian forces is only going to increase. Every few weeks Western involvement in the war creeps further and further into the grey zone of war with Russia, it’s absolutely in Russian self-interest to finish this conflict as soon as possible (Russia still hasn’t felt full economic effects of sanctions yet either), whatever the immediate short-term costs.
    Russia military escalation leaves less time for European military escalation, then the situation becomes really serious, especially if it drags for over a year. From what I can see, China looks it wants to stay out, probably the most they can get out of China is help in bullying central asia, but I don’t see more than that.

    Perhaps the harsh crackdown on any and all media dissent is a preparation for military escalation, rather than Putin covering himself, but I don’t see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have, and seriously pressuring Belarus and Central Asia to at least recognise Crimea, it’s not as if they have anything to lose diplomatically at this point.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Yevardian

    Sorry, I meant pressuring Belarus for integration and Central asia to recognise Crimea.

    , @sudden death
    @Yevardian


    I don’t see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have
     
    Almost feel sorry for the justified existential dread Armenians must be experiencing right now, but harsh reality is such that RF already is using all the military might they have now just short of nukes, real problems are different than "stopping half-measures":

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498

    , @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    I wasn’t aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that?
     
    I can't remember the names offhand, but I think it was mostly one or two Republican Congressmen talking about using Nuclear weapons to stop "Hitler" or such nonsense.

    However, my impression is that Russia's official nuclear doctrine has been no first use, and I'd be surprised if that had publicly changed. Meanwhile, lots of American figures say all sorts of crazy things.

    I think the key thing to keep in mind is the total skew of the global MSM, which the West controls. So all the information we casually get has to be heavily discounted to take that into account.

    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I'd say there's a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases, but because of the MSM skew, probably 98% of people think it was the Russians. Therefore, I'm just partially extrapolating those particular incidents to all the others I haven't bothered investigating.

    Replies: @A123, @AP

  874. @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?
     
    I wasn't aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that? I admit just withdrew any close following at all of American government affairs in disgust early in the Trump administration, as he filled up his cabinet with people like John Bolton.
    But if US officials have really called for Putin's assassination as government statements, I'm not sure what the right reaction to that is. Is a 'Madman' doctrine on both sides really the way to go?

    But the criticism is more that Putin seems to be going for an escalation of nuclear rhetoric, in lieu of escalating conventional military for this 'The Special Operation' (maybe soon, who knows). Of course, I'm far from any expert, but considering that US itself is to all intents and purposes at war with Russia (giving direct intelligence in aiding Ukraine to assassinate generals and presumably sink that Battleship in the Black Sea), Putin isn't quite treating this war as the existential national emergency that it is. Other than the absence of actual foreign troops, Russia has essentially stumbled into war with all of NATO, the force multiplier for Ukrainian forces is only going to increase. Every few weeks Western involvement in the war creeps further and further into the grey zone of war with Russia, it's absolutely in Russian self-interest to finish this conflict as soon as possible (Russia still hasn't felt full economic effects of sanctions yet either), whatever the immediate short-term costs.
    Russia military escalation leaves less time for European military escalation, then the situation becomes really serious, especially if it drags for over a year. From what I can see, China looks it wants to stay out, probably the most they can get out of China is help in bullying central asia, but I don't see more than that.

    Perhaps the harsh crackdown on any and all media dissent is a preparation for military escalation, rather than Putin covering himself, but I don't see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have, and seriously pressuring Belarus and Central Asia to at least recognise Crimea, it's not as if they have anything to lose diplomatically at this point.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @sudden death, @Ron Unz

    Sorry, I meant pressuring Belarus for integration and Central asia to recognise Crimea.

  875. @Philip Owen
    @Wokechoke

    Not really. What mattered once the British Empire had fended off the German attack was making atom bombs and the planes to deliver them. The UK/Canadian bomb would have been ready by 1947. The US accelerated progress (more uranium for the separation process).

    The land war was secondary. Without the Royal Navy to guide supplies to Murmansk and Iran, Russia would have failed in 1941 or 1942. Most Russian losses were self imposed. Due to appalling tactics and complete breakdown (abondonment) of civilian supplies. Bolshevik food security was always terrible even in peace.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    The land war was secondary.

    Yes, Germany surely would have starved and surrendered with only the whole of Europe to feed and equip itself.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.

    It’s true the USSR almost certainly would have collapsed militarily in 1941 without massive Western assistance, but its pretty unarguable that no other country would have been willing to even continue war with the Reich without the USSR taking the vast brunt of the fighing. Almost certainly the US would have de-escalated to a ‘Cold War’ with the Reich instead (I cannot see even the Americans nuking cities across Europe before the Nazis got their own), except with their far greater resources and more efficient admin it never would have collapsed as the USSR did.

    • Replies: @keypusher
    @Yevardian


    It’s true the USSR almost certainly would have collapsed militarily in 1941 without massive Western assistance, but its pretty unarguable that no other country would have been willing to even continue war with the Reich without the USSR taking the vast brunt of the fighing.
     
    You probably know better than me, but I thought little assistance reached the USSR in 1941, and really massive amounts didn't get there until 1943. It was my impression that the Soviets managed to survive Barbarossa without much help.
  876. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt
     
    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that's not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @songbird, @Barbarossa

    Under British rule, the natives were considered owners of their land and could not be evicted. They could sell. Harvard taught native scholars in theology and law. The natives were not uninformed. The civilized tribes became that way due to broadly ethical treatment. Washington and Jefferson among others made shady land deals, claiming to have negotiated with native non entities and thus acquiring the land. The British brought in the Proclamation Act saying only tribal councils could sell and only the British Government could buy. This became the mechanism across the Empire if there was no local land law. The colonists objections to this act caused the American Revolution. Initially native land law didnt change but in 1812 virtually all natives sided with the British. So in 1825 under Andrew Jackson the US changed the native status from owners of their own land to occupiers of Federal land. Hence Jackson’s genocides and the atrocities of the western expansion.

    The Spanish simply seized the land for the Crown with no compensation. The natives were enslaved. The Spanish were mostly male so seized those native women who survived disease as forced concubines. The population densities were higher in Mexico and Peru than North America so native survivors or at least their mixed race descendants still had enough population mass to retain some of their identity. The Spanish started as monsters (at least in Mexico against other monsters) but became less awful. Most English settlements started as virtuous but became, at least in the US, a monster. In what is now Canada, the British kept their treaties. The natives ended up poor anyway but rather more often alive.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Philip Owen

    Anglos also readily own up to a lot more than Americans, French or Spanish.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    , @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    British treatment of the Indians was paternalistic and legalistic but the American treatment was as you pointed out genocidal. In the declaration the Americans accuse the motherland of raising Indian tribes against white colonists.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  877. @Philip Owen
    @Yevardian

    Under British rule, the natives were considered owners of their land and could not be evicted. They could sell. Harvard taught native scholars in theology and law. The natives were not uninformed. The civilized tribes became that way due to broadly ethical treatment. Washington and Jefferson among others made shady land deals, claiming to have negotiated with native non entities and thus acquiring the land. The British brought in the Proclamation Act saying only tribal councils could sell and only the British Government could buy. This became the mechanism across the Empire if there was no local land law. The colonists objections to this act caused the American Revolution. Initially native land law didnt change but in 1812 virtually all natives sided with the British. So in 1825 under Andrew Jackson the US changed the native status from owners of their own land to occupiers of Federal land. Hence Jackson's genocides and the atrocities of the western expansion.

    The Spanish simply seized the land for the Crown with no compensation. The natives were enslaved. The Spanish were mostly male so seized those native women who survived disease as forced concubines. The population densities were higher in Mexico and Peru than North America so native survivors or at least their mixed race descendants still had enough population mass to retain some of their identity. The Spanish started as monsters (at least in Mexico against other monsters) but became less awful. Most English settlements started as virtuous but became, at least in the US, a monster. In what is now Canada, the British kept their treaties. The natives ended up poor anyway but rather more often alive.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke

    Anglos also readily own up to a lot more than Americans, French or Spanish.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @sher singh

    And definitely more than the Russians.

  878. A123 says: • Website

    Are there any additional photos?

    I cannot make out the hull number on the vessel in the picture. There are three Talwar/Grigorovich class hulls available to the Russian Navy:

        • Admiral Grigorovich (745)
        • Admiral Essen (751)
        • Admiral Makarov (799)

    Where are the other two visually similar vessels? If they are docked elsewhere or operating in another ocean/sea that would also clarify the situation.

    PEACE 😇

     

  879. @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?
     
    I wasn't aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that? I admit just withdrew any close following at all of American government affairs in disgust early in the Trump administration, as he filled up his cabinet with people like John Bolton.
    But if US officials have really called for Putin's assassination as government statements, I'm not sure what the right reaction to that is. Is a 'Madman' doctrine on both sides really the way to go?

    But the criticism is more that Putin seems to be going for an escalation of nuclear rhetoric, in lieu of escalating conventional military for this 'The Special Operation' (maybe soon, who knows). Of course, I'm far from any expert, but considering that US itself is to all intents and purposes at war with Russia (giving direct intelligence in aiding Ukraine to assassinate generals and presumably sink that Battleship in the Black Sea), Putin isn't quite treating this war as the existential national emergency that it is. Other than the absence of actual foreign troops, Russia has essentially stumbled into war with all of NATO, the force multiplier for Ukrainian forces is only going to increase. Every few weeks Western involvement in the war creeps further and further into the grey zone of war with Russia, it's absolutely in Russian self-interest to finish this conflict as soon as possible (Russia still hasn't felt full economic effects of sanctions yet either), whatever the immediate short-term costs.
    Russia military escalation leaves less time for European military escalation, then the situation becomes really serious, especially if it drags for over a year. From what I can see, China looks it wants to stay out, probably the most they can get out of China is help in bullying central asia, but I don't see more than that.

    Perhaps the harsh crackdown on any and all media dissent is a preparation for military escalation, rather than Putin covering himself, but I don't see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have, and seriously pressuring Belarus and Central Asia to at least recognise Crimea, it's not as if they have anything to lose diplomatically at this point.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @sudden death, @Ron Unz

    I don’t see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have

    Almost feel sorry for the justified existential dread Armenians must be experiencing right now, but harsh reality is such that RF already is using all the military might they have now just short of nukes, real problems are different than “stopping half-measures”:

  880. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt
     
    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that's not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @songbird, @Barbarossa

    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that’s not a parallel example.

    The Pueblo were a settled people. That is why the Spanish gave them the name Pueblo – it means “village.” They built multi-storied homes, clustered together which actually has no parallel to Indians in Anglo areas, probably because it was a different climate, and corn grew better there. The River Pueblos used irrigation.

    [MORE]

    And the Comanche weren’t horse-riders, at the time of the Pueblo revolt. They were still using dogs to drag their tents in 1725.

    like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    What exactly do you mean by “comparable development?”

    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.

    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement

    Lots of Basque placenames in Mexico. Millions of people of Basque descent in Latin America.

    I’m not familiar with this ban you speak of, but if you are suggesting that it was because they wanted to maintain the ethnic integrity of their colony that is incompatible with what they did on Hispaniola, were they created a new people by planned miscegenation – Dominicans to help hold the territory for strategic purposes. In this area, they didn’t use Spanish women because they died of diseases, so there weren’t many of them there.

    UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women

    the conquistadors who conquered the Inca first took native women, since it was difficult getting there. Once they acquired wealth, they sent back to Spain for Spanish wives, whose full-blooded children where favored over the half-breeds.

    Inca Garcilaso de la Vega wrote about it in his Comentarios Reales de los Incas, which I did read, years ago.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @AP
    @songbird


    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.
     
    Nor did the Indians in California or New Mexico (the Pueblos had a few hundred people, not much more than lived in Iroquois settlements). Yet the Spaniards built cathedrals and missions for them where they taught them to read and write in exchange for indentured servitude. It was not perfect, there were elements of exploitation, but in contrast the Americans mostly just exterminated them or expelled them.

    Look what happened to the California Indians after the Americans took over California, what was done to Cherokees, etc.

    Europeans conquered Natives, the difference is in how they treated them afterwards.

    Replies: @songbird

  881. @Yevardian
    @Philip Owen


    The land war was secondary.
     
    Yes, Germany surely would have starved and surrendered with only the whole of Europe to feed and equip itself.

    Strategic signifance matters not body count.
     
    It's true the USSR almost certainly would have collapsed militarily in 1941 without massive Western assistance, but its pretty unarguable that no other country would have been willing to even continue war with the Reich without the USSR taking the vast brunt of the fighing. Almost certainly the US would have de-escalated to a 'Cold War' with the Reich instead (I cannot see even the Americans nuking cities across Europe before the Nazis got their own), except with their far greater resources and more efficient admin it never would have collapsed as the USSR did.

    Replies: @keypusher

    It’s true the USSR almost certainly would have collapsed militarily in 1941 without massive Western assistance, but its pretty unarguable that no other country would have been willing to even continue war with the Reich without the USSR taking the vast brunt of the fighing.

    You probably know better than me, but I thought little assistance reached the USSR in 1941, and really massive amounts didn’t get there until 1943. It was my impression that the Soviets managed to survive Barbarossa without much help.

  882. @AP
    @songbird


    Lumping the Old World in with the New ignores genetic adaptations to disease.
     
    Lots of desperate excuse making to avoid the obvious: New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement. Either it was a series of very remarkable coincidences that this happened to be so due to particular geographical differences or evolutionary differences between subpopulations, or Catholicism and Orthodoxy simply provided for more humane worldviews. Occam's razor tells us it is the latter.

    That Denisovans and humans split apart over 800,000 years ago, which means a lot of genetic distance, and which can cause a lot of problems with interbreeding, but somehow Tibetans happened to get and keep the specific Denisovan genes that adapted the Denisovans to the altitude of the Tibetan plateau? Are you going to continue to assert that that was random, and genes don’t matter?
     
    Denisovians in Tibet 10,000s of years ago don't matter with respect to why New World natives had it better when the Spaniards or the French arrived, compared to when the English Calvinists came, in the New World.

    May, I remind you, sir, that this was once an HBD blog
     
    I've been commenting on Karlin's blog from before he came to Unz. It was called da Russophile.

    But you reminded us that HBD is often misused like a type of Just So stories. So American Natives lived better in places where the Spaniards arrived rather than in places where the Anglo-Saxons came because those particular Indians had different genetic traits that happened to coincide with the group of conquerors. The parts of India that had been ruled by Portugal are nicer than former British ones not because Portuguese rule was more humane than British rule but because Goans had different genes, right?


    Do you realize that even Tibetan dogs have adaptations to high-altitude living which they got from wolves
     
    You are so desperate to avoid the obvious conclusions about Anglo-Saxon Protestant behavior towards natives in the New World that you are even bringing Tibetan dogs into the discussion. Lol.

    Do you have zero historical interest in America, before your folks got here, that isn’t deconstructive?
     
    You sound like you've been traumatized by the modern American educational system. I barely even know what "deconstructed" means, this became common after I finished university. I seems to be a further devolution of thought and morality, the same road as nationalism but more "advanced." But I haven't had the patience or time to waste on postmodern tracts so I might not be accurate.

    while simultaneously demanding universal Ukrainian nationalism.
     
    ????

    Countries shouldn't invade other countries for nationalistic reasons or many other reasons, and if they do they should be punished - in Russia's case by having Ukraine be deadly for Russia. Not sure how this is "universal Ukrainian nationalism."


    Someone only drawn to this blog for cultural reasons, based on your highly nationalistic affinity for Ukraine
     
    I have an affinity for Ukraine but it is a non-nationalistic one, to the extent that it is possible for someone living in the modern world. Ukraine like other places has not been helped much by nationalism. But Ukrainian nationalism in Ukraine is certainly a much lesser evil than is Russian nationalism for Ukraine. It is useful now, in order to prevent Russian nationalists from taking over the country.

    Europe began its descent when Europeans abandoned monarchy, aristocracy and Church in favor of self-worship. Literally, idolatry which we were warned about. This began with the idolatry of our own Reason in the Enlightenment (which itself was linked to the poisonous Protestant heresy), continued with worship of our Nations (nationalism), Class (Socialism and Communism), and finally base physical needs (modern hedonistic consumerism). It's all a long road downward.

    Periodic repost of a nice passage by the French author Celine about Nationalist "Progress" in Europe and what it meant as Europe self-destructed with its nationalist idiocy, when with the aid of nationalist propaganda stuffed into their minds people turned away from worshipping God and instead worshipped aspects of themselves such as the language they spoke and their kin ("nations"):


    It’s the philosophers . . . another point to look out for while we’re at it … who first started giving the people ideas . . , when all they’d known up until then was the catechism! They began, so they proclaimed, to educate the people . . . Ah! What truths they had to reveal! Beautiful! brilliant! unprecedented truths! And the people were dazzled! That’s it! they said. That’s the stuff! Let’s go and die for it! The people are always dying to die! That’s the way they are! ‘Long live Diderot!’ they yelled. And ‘Long live Voltaire!’ ….And long live everybody! Those guys at least don’t let the beloved people molder in ignorance and fetishism! They show the people the roads of Freedom! Emancipation! Things went fast after that! First teach everybody to read the papers! That’s the way to salvation! Hurry hurry! No more illiterates! We don’t need them anymore! Nothing but citizen-soldiers! Who vote! Who read! And who fight! And who march! And send kisses from the front! In no time the people were good and ripe! The enthusiasm of the liberated has to be good for something, doesn’t it? Danton wasn’t eloquent for the hell of it. With a few phrases, so rousing that we can still hear them today, he had the people mobilized before you could say fiddlesticks! That was when the first battalions of emancipated maniacs marched off! … the first voting, flagmatic suckers that Dumouriez led away to get themselves drilled full of holes in Flanders!… The free-gratis soldier . . . was something really new … So new that when Goethe arrived in Valmy… he was flabbergasted. At the sight of those ragged, impassioned cohorts, who had come of their own free will to get themselves disemboweled by the King of Prussia in defense of a patriotic fiction no one had ever heard of, Goethe realized that he still had much to learn. This day,’ he declaimed grandiloquently as befitted the habits of his genius, ‘marks the beginning of a new era!’ He could say that again! The system proved successful . . . pretty soon they were mass-producing heroes, and in the end, the system was so well perfected that they cost practically nothing. Everyone was delighted. Bismarck, the two Napoleons, Barrès, Elsa the Horsewoman. The religion of the flag promptly replaced the cult of heaven, an old cloud which had already been deflated by the Reformation and reduced to a network of episcopal money boxes. In olden times the fanatical fashion was: ‘Long live Jesus! Burn the heretics!’ . . . But heretics, after all, were few and voluntary . . . Whereas today vast hordes of men are fired with aim and purpose by cries of: ‘Hang the limp turnips! The juiceless lemons! The innocent readers! By the millions, eyes right!’ … Let whole legions of them perish, turn into smidgens, bleed, smolder in acid—and all that to make the Patrie more beloved, more fair, and more joyful! ”

     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @songbird, @Ron Unz

    New World populations subjected to Anglo-Saxon Protestant conquest and settlement had it much worse than those subjected to Catholic and Orthodox conquest and settlement.

    I really don’t think that’s correct. The biggest difference was that the Amerinds of North America were few in number, with many of them being hunter-gatherers, while the Aztec and Incan Amerinds were gigantic, massively populated civilizations, so there were more of them around after European diseases wiped out 90-95%. The relative numbers were probably something like 20-to-1 or so.

    Another factor was that the Spaniards brought few women, leading to the heavily mestizoization of the surviving population.

  883. LatW says:
    @songbird
    @LatW


    There’s a similar myth about the Latvian flag, too.
     
    That's really cool. I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.

    I also like that they show realistic scenes after the battle, with wounded Prussians being taken care of and the woman looking for her husband among the dead, with some of the wounded pulling at her garments desperately.
     
    I love this sort of thing. Sometimes, it is even good when the story starts with the tragic aftermath of battle, without ever even showing the battle itself. (I think of the 1971 British movie Kidnapped, which is very hokey in parts, but which I still enjoyed.)

    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.

    There is an ancient and funny Irish myth that I think comes from The Destruction of Da Derga's Hostel (haven't read it in ages), where a wounded warrior is lying on the field of battle, and from where his head is naturally tilted, he sees this old woman going about the bodies, and he pleadingly asks her to take care of the fly that has been annoying him for hours, and the old hag sees that it is a wolf, buried up to its bloody haunches in his wound, and she grabs the tail and pulls it out of him.

    I also enjoyed the scene in Rob Roy, where members of the clan are just lying out on the hillside at night, with their swords, and with their cloaks folded about them, and they wake up to a frost. Once, while camping, I woke up to swirling mists in the moonlight (some of them looked like ghosts), and now it's been written into my imagination of the distant past, for my ancestors came from such damp and mountainous places.

    Well, most Scandinavians were not even vikings, but farmers.
     
    Technically true, but I hate it when historians make this sort of argument.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded - their escape schemes when captured - their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons - should still be inspirational to us all.

    I tell you, I don't know how far an Irishman would have to go back in the annals to be mathematically certain that he is reading about his ancestors. Since it is only a small country and historically wasn't very populous, it may not be very far. And Ireland is a country with some of the worst surviving genealogical records. Due to political issues, many (but not all) parishes did not even have registers until the 1850s (as I was just reading to my shock in a book by a 19th century traveler, the other day.)

    But from either extreme luck or insane hard-headedness, I can trace a single zig-zag line back, using a very rare parish with somewhat older records. One in which I believe my ancestor (putative) gave a surety for the parish priest, to promise to the authorities that the priest would not travel outside of the parish.

    Very spurious, it involves a gravestone that is leaning against the wall of the outside of a clan crypt, where the original family had their monuments thrown out settlers, and another grave in the cemetery, the grave of one of the last native chiefs in the whole country, also with some of the same heraldry on it, seems to have obviously been vandalized by soldiers - probably who fought in the war, he died in. And not a quarter of it survives, but it is enough to link historically.

    And it involves one or two assumptions, and taking old pedigrees on faith. But, I can't even tell you how much weird pleasure I feel at reading the feats of different warriors, from the 14th and 15th century, whose names are included in the line. It is more than probable that I am descended from them through multiple pathways, even without this zigzag pedigree, but I still take intense pleasure in some of the details of these specific names. Not for bragging purposes, but for what it does for my imagination.

    Well, you have struck a chord with me, LatW, and got me blabbering. (longest post on this thread, I'm sure) Part of me would still go on, and cite the minor details of forgotten, minor skirmishes, but I won't do that to you. And will instead leave by answering your question:

    Which one? From the 1920s or later?
     
    War of Independence (1920) or as they used to call it, the "Anglo-Irish War." This one:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilmichael_Ambush

    Part of my mother's family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him. But I won't say when. I was very surprised to see someone's name in particular, but, looking at a map corrected me, and I am sure it was a different individual, than the man in question, who nevertheless probably saw some interesting things, based on where he did live.

    Regrettably, he died before my time, (it would be very remarkable if he were still living), so I cannot ask him now. Though, my father met him, and was told something vague about his activities, that seemed to show where his allegiances lay in the conflict.

    Replies: @LatW

    I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.

    Well, in modern times, it is being used starting the 1870s, but the colors were chosen because of the events from 1279, depicted in the so called Rhymed Chronicles about fighting between the Balts and the Teutonic Knights (Älteste Livländische Reimchronik, 1290-1296). The Chronicle mentions that such a flag was used. So one can say the first sighting is from that time.

    [MORE]

    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.

    Right, what I like about those kinds of scenes is that they show the ancestors as normal human beings, who can be combative, but are not crazy savages with extraordinary, almost inhuman levels of strength and cruelty.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded – their escape schemes when captured – their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons – should still be inspirational to us all.

    Agree 100%. Thanks for phrasing it so nicely. The red hand symbolizes this. One is wounded and could just lay down and die, but he will still reach out and yank at some flag.

    What I meant was that “viking” back in those days was sort of an occupation (not everyone was a viking, they could be a smith, ship builder, etc). But, of course, the warrior ethos is also very important.

    Kilmichael Ambush

    This ambush was featured in the movie The Wind That Shakes the Barley (I’m sure you’ve seen it). There was quite an intense exchange of fire. What I liked about that scene is how they prepared and dispersed across that area, in very lush grass, wearing those cool berets. You know, there’s a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O’Connor).

    Part of my mother’s family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him.

    Tom Barry, you mean? It’s a small place in County Cork.

    Btw, Sinn Fein just won in Northern Ireland in a historic election (a follow up development to Brexit?). A lady, too, Michelle O’Neill, is she from the O’Neill clan? 🙂

    It seems that they’re not that radical though when it comes to “woke” things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I’d imagine?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    Didn't know whether you knew that your neighbor Estonia is going to put out a commemorative $2 euro soon in honor of Ukraine? A really nice gesture on its part. Seems like everybody is doing its part to help keep Ukraine intact, except for Russia.

    https://numismag.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/entete-1-3.png


    The coin was designed by Daria Titova, a native of Kharkiv. The designer explained that the coin depicts a young girl, a symbol of tenderness, protecting a bird in her hand. The design also features an ear of wheat.

     

    , @songbird
    @LatW


    It seems that they’re not that radical though when it comes to “woke” things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I’d imagine?
     
    Afraid, if you ever want to see a nightmare vision of politics, then Ireland is the place to go. Three of the major parties have Irish names:

    Fianna Fáil (Warriors of Destiny)
    Fine Gael (Tribe of the Irish)
    Sinn Féin ([We] Ourselves)

    You would think that one of these would at least have some mildly nationalist platform, but none of them do. They are all super woke, and Sinn Féin is probably the worst of them. You'll ask yourself, "Sinn Féin? Wasn't that the party of the IRA?" And you will see them holding banners in support of transgenderism and anti-racism.

    The only semi-based party is the National Party, founded in 2016, and they have never won a seat, and are sufficiently villainized, that they may never.

    Northern Ireland is the least enriched part of the British Isles. In this context, I'd hate to see it become reunified with RoI.

    To me, Ireland is like a mouse bitten by a globalist taipan. If the poison is enough to kill ten elephants, what chance does the mouse have?

    You know, there’s a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O’Connor).
     
    Was it Dmitry who posted that here originally? I forget whether it was also him who called Sinead a rare beauty. Anyway, I was much amused by this opinion, as it hard for me to appreciate a face without the hair.

    Speaking of flags, if Ireland is ever reclaimed for nationalists, I hope they ditch the tricolor, and use the harp.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  884. @Yevardian
    @Ron Unz


    Is that really correct? My impression is that for quite some time various American elected officials have been publicly raising the possibility of first-use of nuclear weapons against Russia, and if so, wouldn’t it be reasonable for the Russians to publicly warn of retaliation?
     
    I wasn't aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that? I admit just withdrew any close following at all of American government affairs in disgust early in the Trump administration, as he filled up his cabinet with people like John Bolton.
    But if US officials have really called for Putin's assassination as government statements, I'm not sure what the right reaction to that is. Is a 'Madman' doctrine on both sides really the way to go?

    But the criticism is more that Putin seems to be going for an escalation of nuclear rhetoric, in lieu of escalating conventional military for this 'The Special Operation' (maybe soon, who knows). Of course, I'm far from any expert, but considering that US itself is to all intents and purposes at war with Russia (giving direct intelligence in aiding Ukraine to assassinate generals and presumably sink that Battleship in the Black Sea), Putin isn't quite treating this war as the existential national emergency that it is. Other than the absence of actual foreign troops, Russia has essentially stumbled into war with all of NATO, the force multiplier for Ukrainian forces is only going to increase. Every few weeks Western involvement in the war creeps further and further into the grey zone of war with Russia, it's absolutely in Russian self-interest to finish this conflict as soon as possible (Russia still hasn't felt full economic effects of sanctions yet either), whatever the immediate short-term costs.
    Russia military escalation leaves less time for European military escalation, then the situation becomes really serious, especially if it drags for over a year. From what I can see, China looks it wants to stay out, probably the most they can get out of China is help in bullying central asia, but I don't see more than that.

    Perhaps the harsh crackdown on any and all media dissent is a preparation for military escalation, rather than Putin covering himself, but I don't see any reason from perspective of Russian interest to continue with half-measures. If they want to win, Russia needs to annex the DNR/LNR, start using all the military they have, and seriously pressuring Belarus and Central Asia to at least recognise Crimea, it's not as if they have anything to lose diplomatically at this point.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @sudden death, @Ron Unz

    I wasn’t aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that?

    I can’t remember the names offhand, but I think it was mostly one or two Republican Congressmen talking about using Nuclear weapons to stop “Hitler” or such nonsense.

    However, my impression is that Russia’s official nuclear doctrine has been no first use, and I’d be surprised if that had publicly changed. Meanwhile, lots of American figures say all sorts of crazy things.

    I think the key thing to keep in mind is the total skew of the global MSM, which the West controls. So all the information we casually get has to be heavily discounted to take that into account.

    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I’d say there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases, but because of the MSM skew, probably 98% of people think it was the Russians. Therefore, I’m just partially extrapolating those particular incidents to all the others I haven’t bothered investigating.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @A123
    @Ron Unz

    Known establishment shill, Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested assassination: (1)


    South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham on Wednesday said he stood by his previous comments that Russian President Vladimir Putin should be assassinated.

    The Republican lawmaker made the remarks during a press conference following Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky's video address to Congress. Graham said he supported President Joe Biden's current approach in not supporting a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and he said he also supported Zelensky's request for MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland.

    On March 3, Graham tweeted that somebody in Russia needs to "take this guy out."
     

    I do not know if he specifically called for use of nuclear weapons. However, that would fit with his Leftoid establishment belief system.

    Do not let his theoretical attachment to the Republican party mislead you. Lindsey will exit the GOP and reconnect with his fellow NeoConDemocrats, Bill Kristol and and George Will, supporting the DNC War Party as soon as his run in the Senate expires.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-repeats-call-take-out-putin-after-zelensky-speech-1688686

    Replies: @Yevardian

    , @AP
    @Ron Unz


    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I’d say there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases
     
    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

  885. @Philip Owen
    @Yevardian

    Under British rule, the natives were considered owners of their land and could not be evicted. They could sell. Harvard taught native scholars in theology and law. The natives were not uninformed. The civilized tribes became that way due to broadly ethical treatment. Washington and Jefferson among others made shady land deals, claiming to have negotiated with native non entities and thus acquiring the land. The British brought in the Proclamation Act saying only tribal councils could sell and only the British Government could buy. This became the mechanism across the Empire if there was no local land law. The colonists objections to this act caused the American Revolution. Initially native land law didnt change but in 1812 virtually all natives sided with the British. So in 1825 under Andrew Jackson the US changed the native status from owners of their own land to occupiers of Federal land. Hence Jackson's genocides and the atrocities of the western expansion.

    The Spanish simply seized the land for the Crown with no compensation. The natives were enslaved. The Spanish were mostly male so seized those native women who survived disease as forced concubines. The population densities were higher in Mexico and Peru than North America so native survivors or at least their mixed race descendants still had enough population mass to retain some of their identity. The Spanish started as monsters (at least in Mexico against other monsters) but became less awful. Most English settlements started as virtuous but became, at least in the US, a monster. In what is now Canada, the British kept their treaties. The natives ended up poor anyway but rather more often alive.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Wokechoke

    British treatment of the Indians was paternalistic and legalistic but the American treatment was as you pointed out genocidal. In the declaration the Americans accuse the motherland of raising Indian tribes against white colonists.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Wokechoke

    There is still a lot of nuance, even with the American settlers. I was surprised to read some time ago that after the Revolutionary War there the beginnings of a government push to inoculate the Indians for smallpox, since so many were dying of it. That idea was pretty well hamstrung by chronic lack of finances and the War of 1812.

    It does however show at least some paternalistic concern from some of the higher class Americans.

    As Westward expansion became an increasing pressure through the 1800's I would say the American government's official position became increasingly and unequivocally genocidal.

    Replies: @216

  886. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    Don’t you think we had better cover the earlier history of Spanish-Indian relations in New Mexico first?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiguex_War
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoma_Massacre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pueblo_Revolt
     
    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that's not a parallel example.

    More informative would be to compare the Spanish policies towards civilised or at least settled peoples in places like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.

    Colonial Spanish administration employed Quechua and Nahuátl extensively in the early years of colonisation, before continued dying off of natives from disease and Indian elites marrying into the white population limited usage of indigenous tongues to the peasantry.
    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women, which obviously made an enormous difference to future demographics and overall atttitudes towards natives.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen, @songbird, @Barbarossa

    I don’t see where it is particularly meaningful to make sweeping claims that the Spanish or the English were widely better or worse. It was too much of a mix based on self interest. In either case the leaders back in the Old World seemed more inclined to treat the natives more fairly while the settlers were more inclined to be rapacious.

    It was of course easier for the Pope or an English monarch to see the situation with a bit more high minded detachment than the settlers who stood to gain directly from taking from the natives.

    Anyhow, the policies of any of the European settlers and governments were insignificant compared to the indiscriminate and devastating toll that Euro diseases took.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Barbarossa

    You're basically right, and the very circumstances of the colonies were more important, but I just get sick of people uncritically repeating the Spanish Black Legend.
    That Catholic attitudes were much more 'enlightened' than Protestant ones towards the Indians is also undeniable, though most often the clergy was ignored by the Spanish settlers anyway.

    Replies: @German_reader

  887. @Barbarossa
    @Yevardian

    I don't see where it is particularly meaningful to make sweeping claims that the Spanish or the English were widely better or worse. It was too much of a mix based on self interest. In either case the leaders back in the Old World seemed more inclined to treat the natives more fairly while the settlers were more inclined to be rapacious.

    It was of course easier for the Pope or an English monarch to see the situation with a bit more high minded detachment than the settlers who stood to gain directly from taking from the natives.

    Anyhow, the policies of any of the European settlers and governments were insignificant compared to the indiscriminate and devastating toll that Euro diseases took.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    You’re basically right, and the very circumstances of the colonies were more important, but I just get sick of people uncritically repeating the Spanish Black Legend.
    That Catholic attitudes were much more ‘enlightened’ than Protestant ones towards the Indians is also undeniable, though most often the clergy was ignored by the Spanish settlers anyway.

    • Agree: utu, AP, Barbarossa
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    That Catholic attitudes were much more ‘enlightened’ than Protestant ones towards the Indians is also undeniable
     
    It's not undeniable at all, it's just a blanket assertion by people with an ethnic or religious axe to grind, who feel a need to tell themselves that their own favored groups are inherently and always virtuous and morally superior to others. Obviously this attitude is very strongly pronounced in AP (Ukrainians, Poles and to some extent Catholics in general good, with their historical misdeeds usually being excused or explained away with circumstances, others mostly bad, except when they're on the side of his favored groups). No idea what motivates utu, but then he's mostly mad anyway.
    Songbird and I mentioned the Pueblo Indians. Their population numbers crashed by more than 90% from pre-contact times to a few thousand (something like 5000 iirc) in the 18th century, until the Amerinds were outnumbered by Hispanic settlers. Now much (but not all of it) of this was certainly due to disase, but it's essentially an outcome that is indistinguishable from the supposedly exterminationist policies of Protestant settlers.
  888. A123 says: • Website
    @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    I wasn’t aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that?
     
    I can't remember the names offhand, but I think it was mostly one or two Republican Congressmen talking about using Nuclear weapons to stop "Hitler" or such nonsense.

    However, my impression is that Russia's official nuclear doctrine has been no first use, and I'd be surprised if that had publicly changed. Meanwhile, lots of American figures say all sorts of crazy things.

    I think the key thing to keep in mind is the total skew of the global MSM, which the West controls. So all the information we casually get has to be heavily discounted to take that into account.

    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I'd say there's a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases, but because of the MSM skew, probably 98% of people think it was the Russians. Therefore, I'm just partially extrapolating those particular incidents to all the others I haven't bothered investigating.

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    Known establishment shill, Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested assassination: (1)

    South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham on Wednesday said he stood by his previous comments that Russian President Vladimir Putin should be assassinated.

    The Republican lawmaker made the remarks during a press conference following Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky’s video address to Congress. Graham said he supported President Joe Biden’s current approach in not supporting a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and he said he also supported Zelensky’s request for MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland.

    On March 3, Graham tweeted that somebody in Russia needs to “take this guy out.”

    I do not know if he specifically called for use of nuclear weapons. However, that would fit with his Leftoid establishment belief system.

    Do not let his theoretical attachment to the Republican party mislead you. Lindsey will exit the GOP and reconnect with his fellow NeoConDemocrats, Bill Kristol and and George Will, supporting the DNC War Party as soon as his run in the Senate expires.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-repeats-call-take-out-putin-after-zelensky-speech-1688686

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @A123

    Thank you A123 for perhaps your first ever useful comment. You have restored my faith that everyone can at least grow.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

  889. AP says:
    @Sean
    @AP


    Putin demanded things that no country would agree to – no alliances, no military, veto power over national policy by two Russian-inhabited provinces
     
    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato. But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato. Zelensky seemed amenable to such a resolution, but the integral nationalist climate of opinion whipped up by Poroshenko since 2004 was too opposed.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood
     
    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them. Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia. There was no choice that did not lead to war?


    https://www.traditionalright.com/playing-with-nuclear-war-and-some-advice-for-my-friends-in-sweden/
    A deal could look something like this:

    Ukraine sells the portions of Luhansk and Donetsk that had already declared their independence to Russia, along with a narrow land corridor connecting them to Crimea (which remains Russian). The price is high enough to make a substantial contribution to re-building Ukraine.

    Ukraine agrees not to join NATO unless Russia also joins. That would leave open the door to the alliance Christendom needs, one running from the U.S. Pacific coast to the Russian Pacific coast, oriented south.

    Russia agrees to Ukraine joining the EU.

    Russia cedes East Prussia (the “Kaliningrad Oblast”) to Ukraine, giving Ukraine a Baltic as well as a Black Sea outlet for her grain exports. Russia also funds building a new, high capacity railway, not running through Belarus, connecting Ukraine with the East Prussian port of Konigsberg.

    What does Ukraine think of all this? It doesn’t matter. In true Bismarkian style, the great powers make the deal and inform the smaller powers what they are going to do. Otherwise, no deal is possible in cases such as this
     
    .

    Replies: @AP

    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato.

    And, more importantly, the EU.

    But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato

    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn’t going to join NATO, Russia wasn’t invading due to NATO.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood

    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them.

    Sure, but it was understood by everyone that this was not going to happen anytime soon, if at all.

    Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia.

    Do you believe all the Kremlin’s claims?

    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West economically, its economy and military were improving, and the later Russia invaded the harder the invasion would be. 2022 would be harder than 2014, but a lot easier than 2030. If Russia was going to force a union, time was running out. Karlin made an argument similar to this, he was absolutely correct. NATO had nothing to do with it other than being something to say. So this was the last chance to keep Ukraine in Russia’s orbit by force.

    Unless Ukraine was willing to demilitarize and to abandon its western course it was going to get invaded. So Ukraine wasn’t really given a real choice.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP

    Ukraine sought security in Nato, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia's security was negatively affected by Ukraine's actions, and there seems to have been a major misunderstanding by Ukraine of what the Russian reaction to having their security eroded would be. Is Russia presumed to be so big and strong that it can afford to give up some of its advantages?; we have the proof now that Russia is conventionally not strong at all, to the extent that it is being unofficially threatened that Russia tactical nuke warhead repositories will be attacked if it used a such a weapon on the Ukrainian battlefield. Like 'Upper Volta with Nukes' is Russia supposed to rely on its ICBMs?


    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn’t going to join NATO, Russia wasn’t invading due to NATO.
     
    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ' Sea Breeze' which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea, provoking protests from the overwhelmingly Russian local population. While Ukraine secretly sold a radar to Saddam, its armed forces participated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office and replaced with Yushchenko largely though the machinations of Yushchenko's election agent Poroshenko who organised street protests . It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was--in an election all admit was fair-- again elected to the Presidency (Kuchma has said he thinks Yanukovych actually won the 2004 election fairly too). However when Yushchenko was made President by the Orange Revolution he became the blue eyed boy of Nato and none of the previous problems with Ukraine being admitted to Nato were considered still relevant even by the Germans, but then Yushchenko was given the position of Prime Minister and that stalled the progress to membership. In January 2008 Yushchenko was replaced with Tymoshenko putting Ukraine firmly back on the fast track to Nato membership with an announcement later that year it definitely was going to be admitted (along with Georgia). Within weeks Georgia was invaded by Russia, and France and Germany unofficially vetoed Ukraine becoming a member, presumably because they did not want to commit to what would be directly fighting Russia. Hence it was the military action of Putin that got the invitation to join Nato quietly de facto withdrawn


    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West
     
    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia's electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004 and he was prevented from taking office by the machinations of Poroshenko. Ukraine sought security, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia's security was negatively affected. The deal Putin offered in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country. It was at this point that Russia detached Crimea, an overwhelmingly Russian inhabited land, from Ukraine, which began to militarize with America and other countries' assistance

    Replies: @AP

  890. AP says:
    @Ron Unz
    @Yevardian


    I wasn’t aware of public statements to that effect, perhaps you could show documentation or direct sources regarding that?
     
    I can't remember the names offhand, but I think it was mostly one or two Republican Congressmen talking about using Nuclear weapons to stop "Hitler" or such nonsense.

    However, my impression is that Russia's official nuclear doctrine has been no first use, and I'd be surprised if that had publicly changed. Meanwhile, lots of American figures say all sorts of crazy things.

    I think the key thing to keep in mind is the total skew of the global MSM, which the West controls. So all the information we casually get has to be heavily discounted to take that into account.

    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I'd say there's a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases, but because of the MSM skew, probably 98% of people think it was the Russians. Therefore, I'm just partially extrapolating those particular incidents to all the others I haven't bothered investigating.

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I’d say there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases

    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Do you agree with Unz' wild and unproven theories that both Bucha and the train station bombings were both internal Ukrainian false flag operations?

    Replies: @AP

    , @Ron Unz
    @AP


    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?
     
    I've never bothered looking into the Sandy Hook conspiracy-theories that various rightwingers were loudly proclaiming, but the bits I saw looked like total nonsense to me, and the people promoting it seemed either very gullible or crackpots.

    There were all sorts of different, conflicting theories, which hardly strengthened their credibility in my minds, including the claim that the school had never actually existed. Personally, it wouldn't surprise me if the promotion of all those "crisis-actor-type conspiracies" around that time was part of a Cass Sunstein-type disinfo operation.

    It's perfectly possible that various anti-gun groups did their best to take advantage of the massacre, and may have been fudged a few details for the MSM. But that's very different than claiming the massacre never happened.
  891. AP says:
    @songbird
    @Yevardian


    Apache, Comanche and the similar tribes were nomadic raiders upon Spanish settlers in the region (and far beyond actually), that’s not a parallel example.
     
    The Pueblo were a settled people. That is why the Spanish gave them the name Pueblo - it means "village." They built multi-storied homes, clustered together which actually has no parallel to Indians in Anglo areas, probably because it was a different climate, and corn grew better there. The River Pueblos used irrigation.

    And the Comanche weren't horse-riders, at the time of the Pueblo revolt. They were still using dogs to drag their tents in 1725.

    like Central America to how Anglo settlers acted towards Amerindians with comparable development such as the Cherokee, Iroquois or Seminole.
     

    What exactly do you mean by "comparable development?"

    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.


    There are all sorts of other differences, Spain for example actually limited emigration to the Americas by law, even initially banning Catalans and Basques from the Americas, whilst England and later the UK actively encouraged settlement
     
    Lots of Basque placenames in Mexico. Millions of people of Basque descent in Latin America.

    I'm not familiar with this ban you speak of, but if you are suggesting that it was because they wanted to maintain the ethnic integrity of their colony that is incompatible with what they did on Hispaniola, were they created a new people by planned miscegenation - Dominicans to help hold the territory for strategic purposes. In this area, they didn't use Spanish women because they died of diseases, so there weren't many of them there.


    UK actively encouraged settlement, including bringing women
     
    the conquistadors who conquered the Inca first took native women, since it was difficult getting there. Once they acquired wealth, they sent back to Spain for Spanish wives, whose full-blooded children where favored over the half-breeds.

    Inca Garcilaso de la Vega wrote about it in his Comentarios Reales de los Incas, which I did read, years ago.

    Replies: @AP

    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.

    Nor did the Indians in California or New Mexico (the Pueblos had a few hundred people, not much more than lived in Iroquois settlements). Yet the Spaniards built cathedrals and missions for them where they taught them to read and write in exchange for indentured servitude. It was not perfect, there were elements of exploitation, but in contrast the Americans mostly just exterminated them or expelled them.

    Look what happened to the California Indians after the Americans took over California, what was done to Cherokees, etc.

    Europeans conquered Natives, the difference is in how they treated them afterwards.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP


    It was not perfect, there were elements of exploitation
     
    I should say so. To give one example, in 1655, a Franciscan priest beat a Hopi man to death.

    And there's long lists of crimes like that for both of the English and the Spanish, in the New World. Amerinds did some pretty hair-raising stuff too.


    In contrast the Americans mostly just exterminated them or expelled them.
     
    This is basically propaganda.

    What is the point of it? To advance Indian rights? LMAO. If anything, it is probably against their interests, as it is used to promote open borders, and it is not likely that anyone will treat them as well as Euros.

    It is just something used to deconstruct America, and also Europe.

    Part of the reason the Spaniards don't get it as bad is that Latin America isn't as desirable a place to live, and many of the people are Mestizos and so may not like to have their ancestry impugned.

    But anyway, I don't have any interest in carrying on with it. You aren't advocating for Indian rights or sovereignty. I don't see any kind of positivism from it. You want to talk about people being displaced now, then that would be Western Europeans. It's the fastest invasion in all of history, and doubtlessly more relevant to us both.

  892. @A123
    @Ron Unz

    Known establishment shill, Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested assassination: (1)


    South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham on Wednesday said he stood by his previous comments that Russian President Vladimir Putin should be assassinated.

    The Republican lawmaker made the remarks during a press conference following Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky's video address to Congress. Graham said he supported President Joe Biden's current approach in not supporting a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and he said he also supported Zelensky's request for MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland.

    On March 3, Graham tweeted that somebody in Russia needs to "take this guy out."
     

    I do not know if he specifically called for use of nuclear weapons. However, that would fit with his Leftoid establishment belief system.

    Do not let his theoretical attachment to the Republican party mislead you. Lindsey will exit the GOP and reconnect with his fellow NeoConDemocrats, Bill Kristol and and George Will, supporting the DNC War Party as soon as his run in the Senate expires.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-graham-repeats-call-take-out-putin-after-zelensky-speech-1688686

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Thank you A123 for perhaps your first ever useful comment. You have restored my faith that everyone can at least grow.

    • Thanks: A123
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yevardian

    A failed assassination attempt on Putin of all leaders means he'll be enraged enough to reach for the Cheget to order a first strike. You don't assassinate Kim or Khamenei no matter how awful they are. Self-survival of the Pentagon rules out those bellicose comments from being seriously considered.

    Our Benevolent Overlord might consider starting a new thread since this is already lagging on mobile.

    Replies: @Sean

    , @A123
    @Yevardian

    Actually, I have not changed very much.

    It only seems that way because the SJW Globalist Leftoids have gone totally phweet, bonkers, nutso. They really are trying to use George Orwell's 1984 as a "How To...." guide.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://media.gettr.com/group26/origin/2022/05/02/12/4ec8da53-12a8-433c-e335-ad6eeda3da8f/9da0a88529cb939cd4437fd0aad41c1a_500x0.jpg

  893. @Yevardian
    @A123

    Thank you A123 for perhaps your first ever useful comment. You have restored my faith that everyone can at least grow.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    A failed assassination attempt on Putin of all leaders means he’ll be enraged enough to reach for the Cheget to order a first strike. You don’t assassinate Kim or Khamenei no matter how awful they are. Self-survival of the Pentagon rules out those bellicose comments from being seriously considered.

    [MORE]

    Our Benevolent Overlord might consider starting a new thread since this is already lagging on mobile.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Yellowface Anon

    Russia's General Of the Army Valery Gerasimov, that fellow the CIA's Ukrainian sockpuppets just tried to kill and may have painfully injured, also has a Cheget. It is really difficult to understand the thinking behind the assassination campaign including him, given that Gerasimov seems to be the person who Americans are counting on to restrain an increasingly less unlikely nuclear first use by Putin in Ukraine. Gerasimov had already got a wake up call from the grim reaper when his namesake and possible relative, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, was killed in Ukraine a couple of months ago. Valery must be thinking his days are numbered unless he countenances a termination of the war by battlefield nuking Ukraine out of it.

  894. @AP
    @Ron Unz


    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I’d say there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases
     
    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

    Do you agree with Unz’ wild and unproven theories that both Bucha and the train station bombings were both internal Ukrainian false flag operations?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

  895. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Sean


    Translation: The Minsk 2 agreement would have allowed the majority ethnic Russian eastern provinces to prevent Ukraine joining Nato.
     
    And, more importantly, the EU.

    But that was redundant because France and Germany objections were already an insuperable obstacle to the Ukraine joining Nato
     
    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO, Russia wasn't invading due to NATO.

    The choices were to fight, or to surrender their nationhood

    They wanted to join Nato as a way of preventing Russia invading them.
     

    Sure, but it was understood by everyone that this was not going to happen anytime soon, if at all.

    Yet them persisting with that aspiration led to an invasion of their country by Russia.
     
    Do you believe all the Kremlin's claims?

    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West economically, its economy and military were improving, and the later Russia invaded the harder the invasion would be. 2022 would be harder than 2014, but a lot easier than 2030. If Russia was going to force a union, time was running out. Karlin made an argument similar to this, he was absolutely correct. NATO had nothing to do with it other than being something to say. So this was the last chance to keep Ukraine in Russia's orbit by force.

    Unless Ukraine was willing to demilitarize and to abandon its western course it was going to get invaded. So Ukraine wasn't really given a real choice.

    Replies: @Sean

    Ukraine sought security in Nato, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia’s security was negatively affected by Ukraine’s actions, and there seems to have been a major misunderstanding by Ukraine of what the Russian reaction to having their security eroded would be. Is Russia presumed to be so big and strong that it can afford to give up some of its advantages?; we have the proof now that Russia is conventionally not strong at all, to the extent that it is being unofficially threatened that Russia tactical nuke warhead repositories will be attacked if it used a such a weapon on the Ukrainian battlefield. Like ‘Upper Volta with Nukes’ is Russia supposed to rely on its ICBMs?

    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn’t going to join NATO, Russia wasn’t invading due to NATO.

    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea, provoking protests from the overwhelmingly Russian local population. While Ukraine secretly sold a radar to Saddam, its armed forces participated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office and replaced with Yushchenko largely though the machinations of Yushchenko’s election agent Poroshenko who organised street protests . It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency (Kuchma has said he thinks Yanukovych actually won the 2004 election fairly too). However when Yushchenko was made President by the Orange Revolution he became the blue eyed boy of Nato and none of the previous problems with Ukraine being admitted to Nato were considered still relevant even by the Germans, but then Yushchenko was given the position of Prime Minister and that stalled the progress to membership. In January 2008 Yushchenko was replaced with Tymoshenko putting Ukraine firmly back on the fast track to Nato membership with an announcement later that year it definitely was going to be admitted (along with Georgia). Within weeks Georgia was invaded by Russia, and France and Germany unofficially vetoed Ukraine becoming a member, presumably because they did not want to commit to what would be directly fighting Russia. Hence it was the military action of Putin that got the invitation to join Nato quietly de facto withdrawn

    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004 and he was prevented from taking office by the machinations of Poroshenko. Ukraine sought security, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia’s security was negatively affected. The deal Putin offered in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country. It was at this point that Russia detached Crimea, an overwhelmingly Russian inhabited land, from Ukraine, which began to militarize with America and other countries’ assistance

    • Replies: @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea
     
    Ukraine wanting to join NATO is not the same as Ukraine actually joining NATO. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. And joining NATO, not military exercises, was the stated reason to invade. It was a fake reason.

    The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.
     
    Kuchma never resigned from the presidency. His courts cleared him personally of wrongdoing.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office
     
    That's the one where Yanukovich, Kuchma's designated heir, had 98.5% turnout in districts controlled by his political machine. One district even had 127% turnout. You think that was realistic? OSCE confirmed that election as fraudulent.

    Yanukovich won fairly in 2010 but not in 2004.

    It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency
     
    It's also important to note that after Yanukovch won fairly, he extra-legally usurped power over the courts and over the parliament which had been elected as an Orange parliament but was transformed through pressure by Yanukovich who controlled the prosecutor's office and forced mps to switch sides. He then changed the election laws to give himself a parliamentary majority after the 2012 elections despite the Opposition winning the popular vote in that election. So yes, he (barely) won the presidency legitimately and democratically but his total control over the courts and over the parliament were neither legitimate nor democratic.

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004
     
    You confused Yushchenko and Yanukovich and the election which was run by Kuchma was fraudulent. The election was re-run and Yanukovich lost.

    in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country
     
    You have now twice confused Yanukovich and Yushchenko which suggests that you don't really know who those people are.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power. He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time. He was overthrown in mass protests with the result that the winners of the popular vote in the 2012 parliamentary election came to power. Crimea and urban Donbas left Ukraine, and with the loss of that electorate pro-Russian parties lost any chance of ever again winning a national election in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Barbarossa

  896. Sean says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @Yevardian

    A failed assassination attempt on Putin of all leaders means he'll be enraged enough to reach for the Cheget to order a first strike. You don't assassinate Kim or Khamenei no matter how awful they are. Self-survival of the Pentagon rules out those bellicose comments from being seriously considered.

    Our Benevolent Overlord might consider starting a new thread since this is already lagging on mobile.

    Replies: @Sean

    Russia’s General Of the Army Valery Gerasimov, that fellow the CIA’s Ukrainian sockpuppets just tried to kill and may have painfully injured, also has a Cheget. It is really difficult to understand the thinking behind the assassination campaign including him, given that Gerasimov seems to be the person who Americans are counting on to restrain an increasingly less unlikely nuclear first use by Putin in Ukraine. Gerasimov had already got a wake up call from the grim reaper when his namesake and possible relative, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, was killed in Ukraine a couple of months ago. Valery must be thinking his days are numbered unless he countenances a termination of the war by battlefield nuking Ukraine out of it.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
  897. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    the failed Ukrainian amphibious assault on Snake Island – apparently to get a symbolic victory for May 9 – seems to have been real and failed catastrophically.
     
    No, that was fake. Allegedly nonexistent Ukrainian Air Force just keeps bombing Snake Island, no attempt to storm it. Putting soldiers there as sacrifices would be a stupid thing to do, worthy of the Russian military.



    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1523028196249071616?s=21&t=GFrsyhq2YfGjausHIYyqsA

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

     

    Do you have a link to this? I haven't seen it and I follow people who post Ukrainian stuff.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).
     
    So those jets makin explosions on the island were really Russian jets?

    It's just not realistic that Ukrainians would send troops onto an island that is a sitting duck for missiles. It is realistic that they would hit any troops or facilities on that island which is what the video I posted shows.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  898. @AP
    @Ron Unz


    For example, a couple of particular items I did try to investigate a little were the Bucha Massacre and the rocket hitting that train station, and I’d say there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases
     
    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Ron Unz

    What is your opinion of Newtown (I am probably one of the few people in the world who directly knows people in both places)?

    I’ve never bothered looking into the Sandy Hook conspiracy-theories that various rightwingers were loudly proclaiming, but the bits I saw looked like total nonsense to me, and the people promoting it seemed either very gullible or crackpots.

    There were all sorts of different, conflicting theories, which hardly strengthened their credibility in my minds, including the claim that the school had never actually existed. Personally, it wouldn’t surprise me if the promotion of all those “crisis-actor-type conspiracies” around that time was part of a Cass Sunstein-type disinfo operation.

    It’s perfectly possible that various anti-gun groups did their best to take advantage of the massacre, and may have been fudged a few details for the MSM. But that’s very different than claiming the massacre never happened.

    • Thanks: AP
  899. Sean says:
    @Johnny Rico
    @Sean

    Good video. Apparently we can look forward to an invasion of Alaska at some point.

    Replies: @Sean

    The conflict in Donbass was much more of a civil war fought by ethnic Russians of East Ukraine outraged at the way integral nationalist refused to accept an ethnic Russian president in 20o4 and then overthrew him in 2014 than is generally admitted. Retired General Ben Hodges, former Nato supreme allied commander , who has been about the most prescient military commentator so far, says that the Ukrainians are going to win the battle of wills and they are going to push the ‘hollow’ Russians out unless America stops supplying weapons and money to Ukraine (Afghanistan was a Trillion so the Ukraine is going to be cheap for the results). He also says there is not going to be a Russian Federation in five years. Hmmm.
    Putin thinks he cannot afford defeat

    • Thanks: Johnny Rico
  900. AP says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Do you agree with Unz' wild and unproven theories that both Bucha and the train station bombings were both internal Ukrainian false flag operations?

    Replies: @AP

    Bucha – my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband’s mother’s sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can’t answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station – I don’t have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven’t followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    I hope that Ron reads your reply before he wastes any more of his precious time trying to make a case for his "there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases" hypothesis. He seems very eager to go to bat for the kremlin boys...it's a shame. He doesn't seem to take to heart the more level headed analysis of bloggers like Steve Sailer on these sorts of issues?.....

    , @Beckow
    @AP

    The train station issue was dropped quickly and there were strong technical indications that it was a Kiev missile. Your 'most likely' is deceptive. It didn't have to be a misfire, but done intentionally for propaganda and because Kiev considers Russians living in that region as disloyal and disposable. Ukie forces have targeted local Russians elsewhere, like in Mariupol. and all over Donbass. There is plenty of testimony of Russians living there about it - I doubt it is all made-up.

    About Bucha you could be right, but likely it was done by both sides with Kiev adding to earlier atrocities and staging it for cameras. There are many testimonies that pro-Russians - citizens of Ukraine - are targeted by elements in the military.

    A bigger issue is the collapse in professional media standards and massive propaganda about anything to do with Russia. That makes even true stories suspicious. It works in the short run (like on Mr. Hacks) but in the longer run it is a dead end. Not searching for truth and being skeptical about both sides leads to lack of understanding and bad decisions.

    Look at the map and the material disposition of both sides to see what is going on. Western media instead focuses on emotional feel-good minutia stories fanning further escalations. Whatever else is going on, this is not good for Ukrainians - they will look back in horror at how they were used as cheap extras. All your projections for the future are irrelevant because they will be swept away by this anger at being used.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AP


    Bucha – my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred).
     
    You are wasting your typing energy. It is a finite resource. Unless you are being paid.

    https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2015-10/27/17/campaign_images/webdr06/what-is-the-market-value-of-a-rare-pepe-2-28727-1445981181-8_dblbig.jpg
    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @AP

    The Buryat units have been a huge liability during this war.


    A separate report by the Moscow Times found that two formations from Buryatia, the 11th Guards Separate Air Assault Brigade and 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, had suffered the most significant single unit losses in the war to date.

    Descension between Buryat troops and Chechen Kadyrovites could be evidenced in late March when Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov shared a video of 37th Guards Motor Rifle Bridge commander, Colonel Yuri Medvedev, being transported to a field hospital after being run over by an armored vehicle near Makariv.

    Medvedev would ultimately succumb to his injuries to join the growing list of KIA soldiers from Buryatia.

    Both Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources later revealed Medvedev had been intentionally run over by one of his own soldiers who was angered by the high numbers of combat losses suffered in Ukraine.
     
    The group has a history of patriotism (soldiers died at a higher rate than even Russians during WWII). However, the two Buryat brigades are out of control and need to be broken up.

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/soviet-military-deaths-ww2-by-percentage-of-ethnicity.png
    , @Ron Unz
    @AP


    She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband’s mother’s sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there
     
    I should have clarified that my mention of the Bucha Massacre was in reference to those 15-odd bodies lying in the road that received a great deal of discussion at the time as to who killed them and why. I don't have any position on other things that happened in Bucha.

    The official MSM narrative is that the people had been killed by the Russians with their bodies only "discovered" a couple of days after the Russians pulled out. According to the MSM, satellite evidence proves that the bodies had been lying there for something like two weeks, which seems extremely implausible to me given what happens to bodies lying in the open air for such a long period. Several experienced military people claim that the bodies had obviously only been dead a day or two, proving that the Ukrainians killed them after reoccupying the town.

    Also, most of the victims were wearing white-cloth armbands, which apparently indicates lack of hostility to Russian troops, and the others seemed to have their hands bound with such white cloth. Near their bodies were unopened Russian meal-kits, which the Russians had distributed to local "friendlies." This further suggests they were considered pro-Russian elements.

    Supposedly, a Ukrainian website announced that Bucha was being subjected to a "cleansing operation" aimed at traitors. This would fit with the other facts of what happened.

    I don't speak Russian or Ukrainian and don't have military expertise, but all of this seems very plausible to me. Why would all the victims of the Russian massacre be wearing pro-Russian white-cloths?

    We've published 4-5 articles on the Bucha massacre and I listened to several of Scott Ritter's podcasts:

    https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/

    Replies: @AP

  901. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).

    Replies: @AP

    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

    Do you have a link to this? I haven’t seen it and I follow people who post Ukrainian stuff.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).

    So those jets makin explosions on the island were really Russian jets?

    It’s just not realistic that Ukrainians would send troops onto an island that is a sitting duck for missiles. It is realistic that they would hit any troops or facilities on that island which is what the video I posted shows.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Here is the video: https://t.me/rybar/32365

    There was initial skepticism about it being a Russian helicopter on account of aforementioned reasons, though it appears this really was a Russian Mi-8: https://t.me/rybar/32392

    It appears for once this was not an Ukrofake, though a skeptical stance is understandable, given their penchant for lying. https://t.me/rustroyka1945/2104

    Replies: @216

  902. AP says:
    @Sean
    @AP

    Ukraine sought security in Nato, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia's security was negatively affected by Ukraine's actions, and there seems to have been a major misunderstanding by Ukraine of what the Russian reaction to having their security eroded would be. Is Russia presumed to be so big and strong that it can afford to give up some of its advantages?; we have the proof now that Russia is conventionally not strong at all, to the extent that it is being unofficially threatened that Russia tactical nuke warhead repositories will be attacked if it used a such a weapon on the Ukrainian battlefield. Like 'Upper Volta with Nukes' is Russia supposed to rely on its ICBMs?


    Yes, which is why it was a fake excuse by Russia. Ukraine wasn’t going to join NATO, Russia wasn’t invading due to NATO.
     
    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ' Sea Breeze' which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea, provoking protests from the overwhelmingly Russian local population. While Ukraine secretly sold a radar to Saddam, its armed forces participated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office and replaced with Yushchenko largely though the machinations of Yushchenko's election agent Poroshenko who organised street protests . It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was--in an election all admit was fair-- again elected to the Presidency (Kuchma has said he thinks Yanukovych actually won the 2004 election fairly too). However when Yushchenko was made President by the Orange Revolution he became the blue eyed boy of Nato and none of the previous problems with Ukraine being admitted to Nato were considered still relevant even by the Germans, but then Yushchenko was given the position of Prime Minister and that stalled the progress to membership. In January 2008 Yushchenko was replaced with Tymoshenko putting Ukraine firmly back on the fast track to Nato membership with an announcement later that year it definitely was going to be admitted (along with Georgia). Within weeks Georgia was invaded by Russia, and France and Germany unofficially vetoed Ukraine becoming a member, presumably because they did not want to commit to what would be directly fighting Russia. Hence it was the military action of Putin that got the invitation to join Nato quietly de facto withdrawn


    Russia invaded because Ukraine was integrating with the West
     
    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia's electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004 and he was prevented from taking office by the machinations of Poroshenko. Ukraine sought security, but there is little comprehension in any of your comments that Russia's security was negatively affected. The deal Putin offered in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country. It was at this point that Russia detached Crimea, an overwhelmingly Russian inhabited land, from Ukraine, which began to militarize with America and other countries' assistance

    Replies: @AP

    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea

    Ukraine wanting to join NATO is not the same as Ukraine actually joining NATO. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. And joining NATO, not military exercises, was the stated reason to invade. It was a fake reason.

    The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.

    Kuchma never resigned from the presidency. His courts cleared him personally of wrongdoing.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office

    That’s the one where Yanukovich, Kuchma’s designated heir, had 98.5% turnout in districts controlled by his political machine. One district even had 127% turnout. You think that was realistic? OSCE confirmed that election as fraudulent.

    Yanukovich won fairly in 2010 but not in 2004.

    It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency

    It’s also important to note that after Yanukovch won fairly, he extra-legally usurped power over the courts and over the parliament which had been elected as an Orange parliament but was transformed through pressure by Yanukovich who controlled the prosecutor’s office and forced mps to switch sides. He then changed the election laws to give himself a parliamentary majority after the 2012 elections despite the Opposition winning the popular vote in that election. So yes, he (barely) won the presidency legitimately and democratically but his total control over the courts and over the parliament were neither legitimate nor democratic.

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004

    You confused Yushchenko and Yanukovich and the election which was run by Kuchma was fraudulent. The election was re-run and Yanukovich lost.

    in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country

    You have now twice confused Yanukovich and Yushchenko which suggests that you don’t really know who those people are.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power. He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time. He was overthrown in mass protests with the result that the winners of the popular vote in the 2012 parliamentary election came to power. Crimea and urban Donbas left Ukraine, and with the loss of that electorate pro-Russian parties lost any chance of ever again winning a national election in Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.
     
    That is a bold-faced lie. Ukraine was officially told in 2008 at a Nato summit that it will join Nato. The statement was annually repeated. It was the official position of US the Nato decision maker. In 2019 it was added to the Ukrainian Constitution: Ukraine will join Nato. The exercises, training, planning for bases, weapons... all of that was taking place for years. It was public and nobody in the West ever denied it - they only said "when Ukraine is ready". The German-French position was not "no", but "not yet".

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about. You basically lying about it amounts to a desperate attempt to rewrite not even the present. At least have the integrity to admit it. You are pushing a lie because you were caught doing something that you don't like to admit.

    Your argumentation is childishly flawed with endless "barely won" and denying the obvious like the Ukie constitution and Nato annual statements. Go back to your usual obsessive cherry-picking, there is value and information in it. But denying the nose between your eyes because you were not caught fully red handed like with Nato in Ukraine is very sad. Admit it: Ukraine and Nato had a plan and it was blown up by Russia. Now Ukraine is suffering.

    Replies: @216, @AP

    , @Sean
    @AP


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO
     
    So what was the problem with giving the Russian speaking provinces autonomy and and veto over joining Nato? And you are missing what changed after the official 2008 announcement by Nato that Ukraine and Georgia would be joining. I went to a great deal of trouble to explain the sequence of events in a long comment

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-186-russia-ukraine/#comment-5329500

    Apparently I need to spell it out. What happened in a few weeks after the announcement was Russia invaded Georgia. Hence the reason why there went from being an announcement that Ukraine would be joining Nato to an unspoken recognition that it wasn't going to happen is that Putin did something to change the minds of Germany and France ECT ECT. Those countries were in Nato in order to avoid getting into a war with Russia, and Putin's invasion of Georgia made clear that Ukraine would likely end up in a war with Russia over joining Nato.

    Yanukovich was not the one who wrote the Ukrainian constitution in which whoever wins the Presidency appoints the governors, which in 2015 enabled Poroshenko when president of Ukraine to appoint former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to be governor of Odessa. Poroshenko obviously thought that Ukraine could use the masterful diplomatic skills Saakashvili had shown to such advantage in 2008 when under his leadership Georgia blundered into a war with Russia. He obviously taught the Ukrainians well.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power.
     
    Yes well democracies are commonly wrought by controversy over leaders taking decisions some sdo not like, but when all is said and dome Preventing him from taking office by extra parliamentary actions (organized by Poroshenko) in 2004 may have given Yanukovich the idea that there were powerful integral nationalist forces plotting to remove him.

    He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time.
     
    It is true that Yanukovich jailed Y. Timoshenko, but Zelensky attempted to convict Poroshenko on twenty charges including one of treason, which forced him to flee the country for a time. And Zelensky trying to jail Poroshenko was what involved Bidens son, caused the Trump_Uklraine impeachment imbroglio, and indirectly led to the Biden administration's unprecedented deluge of weapons for Ukraine and granting Zelensky a meeting with POTUS, which along with the failure to fulfill Minsk2 seems to have provoked Putin into consider mounting an actual full on invasion. Anyway, Yanukovich fairly won an election (making it quite likely that whatever frauds occurred in 2004 his support was real and he had legitimately won the most votes in 2004, as he indisputably did in 2010).

    Yanukovich was not a dictator, so overthrowing him was highly destablising act, and we cannot ignore that Poroshenko, the person who organised the demo-riots to extra-judicially remove Yanukovich from the presidency, then replaced him as President. Before he was elected President, Poroshenko was the eminence grise of Ukraine, with power to overthrow governments. It was Poroshenko and his anti ethic Russian integral nationalism using far right elements that inhibited Zelensky from enacting the Minsk 2 accords for a final settlement; he bears a great deal of responsibility for the tens of thousands of violent deaths that ensued.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Barbarossa
    @AP

    Out of curiosity, if NATO would take a useless liability of a country like Montenegro, what makes you think Ukraine joining was out of the question? Sure there was opposition to such a move, but I see no reason to say that it was out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

  903. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

    I hope that Ron reads your reply before he wastes any more of his precious time trying to make a case for his “there’s a 70-80% the Ukrainians were guilty in both cases” hypothesis. He seems very eager to go to bat for the kremlin boys…it’s a shame. He doesn’t seem to take to heart the more level headed analysis of bloggers like Steve Sailer on these sorts of issues?…..

  904. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @Barbarossa

    You're basically right, and the very circumstances of the colonies were more important, but I just get sick of people uncritically repeating the Spanish Black Legend.
    That Catholic attitudes were much more 'enlightened' than Protestant ones towards the Indians is also undeniable, though most often the clergy was ignored by the Spanish settlers anyway.

    Replies: @German_reader

    That Catholic attitudes were much more ‘enlightened’ than Protestant ones towards the Indians is also undeniable

    It’s not undeniable at all, it’s just a blanket assertion by people with an ethnic or religious axe to grind, who feel a need to tell themselves that their own favored groups are inherently and always virtuous and morally superior to others. Obviously this attitude is very strongly pronounced in AP (Ukrainians, Poles and to some extent Catholics in general good, with their historical misdeeds usually being excused or explained away with circumstances, others mostly bad, except when they’re on the side of his favored groups). No idea what motivates utu, but then he’s mostly mad anyway.
    Songbird and I mentioned the Pueblo Indians. Their population numbers crashed by more than 90% from pre-contact times to a few thousand (something like 5000 iirc) in the 18th century, until the Amerinds were outnumbered by Hispanic settlers. Now much (but not all of it) of this was certainly due to disase, but it’s essentially an outcome that is indistinguishable from the supposedly exterminationist policies of Protestant settlers.

  905. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

    The train station issue was dropped quickly and there were strong technical indications that it was a Kiev missile. Your ‘most likely’ is deceptive. It didn’t have to be a misfire, but done intentionally for propaganda and because Kiev considers Russians living in that region as disloyal and disposable. Ukie forces have targeted local Russians elsewhere, like in Mariupol. and all over Donbass. There is plenty of testimony of Russians living there about it – I doubt it is all made-up.

    About Bucha you could be right, but likely it was done by both sides with Kiev adding to earlier atrocities and staging it for cameras. There are many testimonies that pro-Russians – citizens of Ukraine – are targeted by elements in the military.

    A bigger issue is the collapse in professional media standards and massive propaganda about anything to do with Russia. That makes even true stories suspicious. It works in the short run (like on Mr. Hacks) but in the longer run it is a dead end. Not searching for truth and being skeptical about both sides leads to lack of understanding and bad decisions.

    Look at the map and the material disposition of both sides to see what is going on. Western media instead focuses on emotional feel-good minutia stories fanning further escalations. Whatever else is going on, this is not good for Ukrainians – they will look back in horror at how they were used as cheap extras. All your projections for the future are irrelevant because they will be swept away by this anger at being used.

  906. Sean says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    So far as WW1 comparisons go, it is Russia fighting as Great Britain at about 30% of its potential vs. Ukraine as a USSR backed up by Lend-Lease & Bletchley fighting at 80% of its potential.

    Would a 150M Great Britain have won vs. a 35M USSR, even one outfitted with Western gear and intelligence? To ask the question is to answer it. But, lacking both the superlative combat effectiveness and greater casualty tolerance of Nazi Germany (it is not even using conscripts like the Turks were doing in Syria), it would fight in a cautious, plodding manner, attritioning the USSR with artillery and strategic bombing (Kalibrs etc.). Apart from that, the problem for Ukraine is that its TFR 20 years ago was close 1 vs. 6 for the USSR in the 1920s, and there are more or less open borders with Europe for non-svidomist men to escape to.

    ***

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize. I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer, if Zelensky goes full totalitarian, but that's hard to imagine in the Ukrainian context. The Franco-Prussian War now seems like a good frame of reference, with the equivalent of the Battle of Sedan taking place in a more protracted and attritional form in the Donbass, with subsequent units to be much less well trained, ad hoc, and poorly armed.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

    I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer

    To my way of thinking Dubious, the Russia effort is across along the entire line of contact, a very broad front . If Russia was capable of winning this in such a timeframe as you suggest it would have would have gathered the wherewithal at one time and place for a much quicker win. Personally I think, the ground hardening in Summer may see a Ukrainian offensive making significant gains. Unless the Russians are well dug in as a result of being pounded by pinpoint accurate artillery that outranges there own

    Russian usage of nukes

    It is a red herring when Western pundits imply it may be against Nato. However a Russian tactical thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Sean


    thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.
     
    "Less unlikely" is about right. Although Russia has alternatives. e.g. massive usage of stand-off weapons to destroy infrastructure (and anything else around it) as Nato used in its wars. It will not take a year, that would be unsustainable for all sides.

    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that 'better weapons' or artillery would make a difference doesn't account for the extremely hard logistics - Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.

    If Kiev throws its manpower at Russian lines, they will push forward a few kilometers at a very heavy cost. Russia has been fighting without fully using what they have - if they go medieval and start just blowing units up from distance (with no regard for civilians as they are already accused of anyway), it will be a totally unnecessary bloodbath.

    Replies: @216

    , @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?


    It's rather the reverse. Once these streams, creeks and assorted small rivers dry up a bit (notably the flooding of the forest area around Oskil the Russians will be best suited to use their enormous supplies of vehicles off road). Tracked vehicles are not really designed to go through heavy mud in the freezing weather. The water in the mud expands and contracts and destroys the drive shafts/transmission etc. off roading in Autumn and spring was never possible.

    If I may, much of the fighting in Winter and Spring was designed to give Russia key topographical features. Izyum, Popasna, Kherson. From there they plan to develop larger battles.

    The Russians could in theory start new incursions into Sumy and Kharkov again. Not that the Russians will be thinking in those terms but the rivers and streams in Eastern Ukraine are muddy messes. I've seen the worst of the footage from ww2 and it is a churned up mess outside of hot summer dry spells.

    Entire campaign up to now could be interpreted as an effort to capture key crossings, hills and ports for more classically mass manouvre warfare. Are the Ukies in the area even getting petrol/gas/diesel fuel to drive around?

    Replies: @Sean

  907. @LatW
    @songbird


    I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.
     
    Well, in modern times, it is being used starting the 1870s, but the colors were chosen because of the events from 1279, depicted in the so called Rhymed Chronicles about fighting between the Balts and the Teutonic Knights (Älteste Livländische Reimchronik, 1290-1296). The Chronicle mentions that such a flag was used. So one can say the first sighting is from that time.


    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.
     
    Right, what I like about those kinds of scenes is that they show the ancestors as normal human beings, who can be combative, but are not crazy savages with extraordinary, almost inhuman levels of strength and cruelty.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded – their escape schemes when captured – their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons – should still be inspirational to us all.
     
    Agree 100%. Thanks for phrasing it so nicely. The red hand symbolizes this. One is wounded and could just lay down and die, but he will still reach out and yank at some flag.

    What I meant was that "viking" back in those days was sort of an occupation (not everyone was a viking, they could be a smith, ship builder, etc). But, of course, the warrior ethos is also very important.

    Kilmichael Ambush
     
    This ambush was featured in the movie The Wind That Shakes the Barley (I'm sure you've seen it). There was quite an intense exchange of fire. What I liked about that scene is how they prepared and dispersed across that area, in very lush grass, wearing those cool berets. You know, there's a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O'Connor).

    Part of my mother’s family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him.
     
    Tom Barry, you mean? It's a small place in County Cork.

    Btw, Sinn Fein just won in Northern Ireland in a historic election (a follow up development to Brexit?). A lady, too, Michelle O'Neill, is she from the O'Neill clan? :)

    It seems that they're not that radical though when it comes to "woke" things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I'd imagine?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @songbird

    Didn’t know whether you knew that your neighbor Estonia is going to put out a commemorative \$2 euro soon in honor of Ukraine? A really nice gesture on its part. Seems like everybody is doing its part to help keep Ukraine intact, except for Russia.

    The coin was designed by Daria Titova, a native of Kharkiv. The designer explained that the coin depicts a young girl, a symbol of tenderness, protecting a bird in her hand. The design also features an ear of wheat.

  908. @LatW
    @songbird


    I had no idea that the Latvian flag is that old.
     
    Well, in modern times, it is being used starting the 1870s, but the colors were chosen because of the events from 1279, depicted in the so called Rhymed Chronicles about fighting between the Balts and the Teutonic Knights (Älteste Livländische Reimchronik, 1290-1296). The Chronicle mentions that such a flag was used. So one can say the first sighting is from that time.


    This is something that would have been well-known and appreciated by our ancestors.
     
    Right, what I like about those kinds of scenes is that they show the ancestors as normal human beings, who can be combative, but are not crazy savages with extraordinary, almost inhuman levels of strength and cruelty.

    Yes, the old lines of hereditary warriors may have been a small part of our ancestors. But they were an important part. And their battlefield courage, their will to live, when grievously wounded – their escape schemes when captured – their essential vitality, and their sacrifice for their sons – should still be inspirational to us all.
     
    Agree 100%. Thanks for phrasing it so nicely. The red hand symbolizes this. One is wounded and could just lay down and die, but he will still reach out and yank at some flag.

    What I meant was that "viking" back in those days was sort of an occupation (not everyone was a viking, they could be a smith, ship builder, etc). But, of course, the warrior ethos is also very important.

    Kilmichael Ambush
     
    This ambush was featured in the movie The Wind That Shakes the Barley (I'm sure you've seen it). There was quite an intense exchange of fire. What I liked about that scene is how they prepared and dispersed across that area, in very lush grass, wearing those cool berets. You know, there's a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O'Connor).

    Part of my mother’s family went to the same church as the commander, and lived not a mile away from him.
     
    Tom Barry, you mean? It's a small place in County Cork.

    Btw, Sinn Fein just won in Northern Ireland in a historic election (a follow up development to Brexit?). A lady, too, Michelle O'Neill, is she from the O'Neill clan? :)

    It seems that they're not that radical though when it comes to "woke" things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I'd imagine?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @songbird

    It seems that they’re not that radical though when it comes to “woke” things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I’d imagine?

    Afraid, if you ever want to see a nightmare vision of politics, then Ireland is the place to go. Three of the major parties have Irish names:

    [MORE]

    Fianna Fáil (Warriors of Destiny)
    Fine Gael (Tribe of the Irish)
    Sinn Féin ([We] Ourselves)

    You would think that one of these would at least have some mildly nationalist platform, but none of them do. They are all super woke, and Sinn Féin is probably the worst of them. You’ll ask yourself, “Sinn Féin? Wasn’t that the party of the IRA?” And you will see them holding banners in support of transgenderism and anti-racism.

    The only semi-based party is the National Party, founded in 2016, and they have never won a seat, and are sufficiently villainized, that they may never.

    Northern Ireland is the least enriched part of the British Isles. In this context, I’d hate to see it become reunified with RoI.

    To me, Ireland is like a mouse bitten by a globalist taipan. If the poison is enough to kill ten elephants, what chance does the mouse have?

    You know, there’s a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O’Connor).

    Was it Dmitry who posted that here originally? I forget whether it was also him who called Sinead a rare beauty. Anyway, I was much amused by this opinion, as it hard for me to appreciate a face without the hair.

    Speaking of flags, if Ireland is ever reclaimed for nationalists, I hope they ditch the tricolor, and use the harp.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU.

    Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird

  909. https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2022/mar/22/horrors-mariupol-new-danger-sarajevo-balkans-eu-serbia

    A bunch of the usual suspects – Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Timothy Garton Ash, Ireneusz Pawel Karolewski and Claus Leggewie – determined not to let a crisis go to waste.

    The UK must move closer again to Europe’s political community, an association that was carelessly squandered by Brexit. But stronger protection against Russia also means that Putin’s Trojan horses, such as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbia, should be opposed more decisively. This raises questions above all about enforcing the fundamental legal commitments of Hungary’s EU membership and Serbia’s continued status as an EU candidate country.

    “Democracy” = government-supported LBGTQUERTYUIOP marches/propaganda, free abortion on demand and open borders.

  910. A123 says: • Website

    First, a reminder about propaganda from all sides: (1)

    It remains difficult to locate solid reporting on the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but somewhere between the western media disinformation about the heroic efforts to fight back – and the Russian claims of advanced success in the region, the truth must exist. The challenge is finding the accurate information.

    The Fake Stream Media appears to be intentionally misrepresenting the conditions at the Azov Steelworks as representative of Mariupol as a whole.

    Boots on the ground reporting shows that conditions are much better in Mariupol than the FSM propaganda fabrication: (2)

    DPR and Russian forces have taken control of more and more parts of the city the fighting has wound down to just a very small pocket of the city with only some Ukraine forces being in part of the Azovstal plant underground with many civilians. Yesterday I spent the day on the Azovstal territory a only heard one explosion. At least 12 civilians were released by the Azov. In this report I show you another part of the Azovstol plant and talked to the Russian and DPR soldiers who are fighting there.

    There are talks among the locals that the Russian and DPR forces are planning a May 9th Victory day celebration in Mariupol. Kids play freely in the streets in most of the city. Weeks ago Russia declared victory in Mariupol. The city is being cleaned and already some areas starting to be rebuilt. Life is coming back to Mariupol. It seems it is just a matter of time before the Azovtstal plant and Mariupol no longer have any Ukrainian troops in it so there is no question that the major fighting is over.”

    Russia is starting to “Win the Peace” in Mariupol. Families are safe outside. Basic infrastructure (e.g. electricity, water, sewer) is being restored.

    Reestablishing the complete prewar food distribution network will take many months. However, it is only a matter of time before specific roads to nearby agricultural areas are opened to civilian traffic. Encouraging “Farmer’s Markets” significantly increases the food calories available to residents. The ability to cook with local produce restores normality and day-to-day livability.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/07/proxy-war-update-russia-targeting-u-s-military-equipment-arriving-in-ukraine-apparently-with-some-success/

    (2) Inside Azovstal Territory, May 7, 2022, Pat Lancaster (YouTube)

  911. @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea
     
    Ukraine wanting to join NATO is not the same as Ukraine actually joining NATO. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. And joining NATO, not military exercises, was the stated reason to invade. It was a fake reason.

    The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.
     
    Kuchma never resigned from the presidency. His courts cleared him personally of wrongdoing.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office
     
    That's the one where Yanukovich, Kuchma's designated heir, had 98.5% turnout in districts controlled by his political machine. One district even had 127% turnout. You think that was realistic? OSCE confirmed that election as fraudulent.

    Yanukovich won fairly in 2010 but not in 2004.

    It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency
     
    It's also important to note that after Yanukovch won fairly, he extra-legally usurped power over the courts and over the parliament which had been elected as an Orange parliament but was transformed through pressure by Yanukovich who controlled the prosecutor's office and forced mps to switch sides. He then changed the election laws to give himself a parliamentary majority after the 2012 elections despite the Opposition winning the popular vote in that election. So yes, he (barely) won the presidency legitimately and democratically but his total control over the courts and over the parliament were neither legitimate nor democratic.

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004
     
    You confused Yushchenko and Yanukovich and the election which was run by Kuchma was fraudulent. The election was re-run and Yanukovich lost.

    in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country
     
    You have now twice confused Yanukovich and Yushchenko which suggests that you don't really know who those people are.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power. He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time. He was overthrown in mass protests with the result that the winners of the popular vote in the 2012 parliamentary election came to power. Crimea and urban Donbas left Ukraine, and with the loss of that electorate pro-Russian parties lost any chance of ever again winning a national election in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Barbarossa

    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.

    That is a bold-faced lie. Ukraine was officially told in 2008 at a Nato summit that it will join Nato. The statement was annually repeated. It was the official position of US the Nato decision maker. In 2019 it was added to the Ukrainian Constitution: Ukraine will join Nato. The exercises, training, planning for bases, weapons… all of that was taking place for years. It was public and nobody in the West ever denied it – they only said “when Ukraine is ready“. The German-French position was not “no”, but “not yet”.

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about. You basically lying about it amounts to a desperate attempt to rewrite not even the present. At least have the integrity to admit it. You are pushing a lie because you were caught doing something that you don’t like to admit.

    Your argumentation is childishly flawed with endless “barely won” and denying the obvious like the Ukie constitution and Nato annual statements. Go back to your usual obsessive cherry-picking, there is value and information in it. But denying the nose between your eyes because you were not caught fully red handed like with Nato in Ukraine is very sad. Admit it: Ukraine and Nato had a plan and it was blown up by Russia. Now Ukraine is suffering.

    • Replies: @216
    @Beckow

    It is the absolute sovereign right of the West to induct Ukraine into NATO, and also to forbid the Solomon Islands from aligning with China.

    Third World Communists have zero moral right to lecture the West.

    Criticizing the leadership of the West is reserved to actual Western conservatives.

    , @AP
    @Beckow


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.

    That is a bold-faced lie
     
    The only one who lies here is you. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution does not mean it will be allowed to join, it’s not up to Ukraine. Germany blocked NATO membership for Ukraine even back in 2008. Hungary promised (and did) to veto all NATO integration efforts, probably on behalf of Germany, with Hungarian language laws as an excuse.

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about
     
    Again, it was not about NATO because NATO was not an option for Ukraine. It was about ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and reuniting “Russian” lands.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

  912. @AP
    @songbird


    Central America was densely populated. It had cities. At its height, El Pilar is estimated to have a population of 180,000 people. That peak was several hundred years before the Spanish arrived, though. But the point is the Cherokee, Iroquois and Seminole never had anything remotely like that.
     
    Nor did the Indians in California or New Mexico (the Pueblos had a few hundred people, not much more than lived in Iroquois settlements). Yet the Spaniards built cathedrals and missions for them where they taught them to read and write in exchange for indentured servitude. It was not perfect, there were elements of exploitation, but in contrast the Americans mostly just exterminated them or expelled them.

    Look what happened to the California Indians after the Americans took over California, what was done to Cherokees, etc.

    Europeans conquered Natives, the difference is in how they treated them afterwards.

    Replies: @songbird

    It was not perfect, there were elements of exploitation

    I should say so. To give one example, in 1655, a Franciscan priest beat a Hopi man to death.

    And there’s long lists of crimes like that for both of the English and the Spanish, in the New World. Amerinds did some pretty hair-raising stuff too.

    In contrast the Americans mostly just exterminated them or expelled them.

    This is basically propaganda.

    What is the point of it? To advance Indian rights? LMAO. If anything, it is probably against their interests, as it is used to promote open borders, and it is not likely that anyone will treat them as well as Euros.

    It is just something used to deconstruct America, and also Europe.

    Part of the reason the Spaniards don’t get it as bad is that Latin America isn’t as desirable a place to live, and many of the people are Mestizos and so may not like to have their ancestry impugned.

    But anyway, I don’t have any interest in carrying on with it. You aren’t advocating for Indian rights or sovereignty. I don’t see any kind of positivism from it. You want to talk about people being displaced now, then that would be Western Europeans. It’s the fastest invasion in all of history, and doubtlessly more relevant to us both.

  913. @Sean
    @Anatoly Karlin


    I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer
     
    To my way of thinking Dubious, the Russia effort is across along the entire line of contact, a very broad front . If Russia was capable of winning this in such a timeframe as you suggest it would have would have gathered the wherewithal at one time and place for a much quicker win. Personally I think, the ground hardening in Summer may see a Ukrainian offensive making significant gains. Unless the Russians are well dug in as a result of being pounded by pinpoint accurate artillery that outranges there own

    Russian usage of nukes
     
    It is a red herring when Western pundits imply it may be against Nato. However a Russian tactical thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.

    “Less unlikely” is about right. Although Russia has alternatives. e.g. massive usage of stand-off weapons to destroy infrastructure (and anything else around it) as Nato used in its wars. It will not take a year, that would be unsustainable for all sides.

    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that ‘better weapons’ or artillery would make a difference doesn’t account for the extremely hard logistics – Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.

    If Kiev throws its manpower at Russian lines, they will push forward a few kilometers at a very heavy cost. Russia has been fighting without fully using what they have – if they go medieval and start just blowing units up from distance (with no regard for civilians as they are already accused of anyway), it will be a totally unnecessary bloodbath.

    • Agree: Wielgus
    • Replies: @216
    @Beckow


    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that ‘better weapons’ or artillery would make a difference doesn’t account for the extremely hard logistics – Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.
     
    The sole limiting factor preventing Russian defeat is the casualty averse nature of the West. The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead to a quick routing and mass surrender of the Russian military within the borders of Ukraine. Within a month or two of NATO intervention, there would be Maidan in Moscow and Minsk. Liberals would remove the sole remaining illiberal regime in Europe.

    The course of war has led to a weakening of the Pro-Russian position in the West, eagerly helped along by Anti-White tankies that have now deemed Russia the "Asiatic Anti-Imperialists".

    Replies: @Beckow

  914. @Beckow
    @AP


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.
     
    That is a bold-faced lie. Ukraine was officially told in 2008 at a Nato summit that it will join Nato. The statement was annually repeated. It was the official position of US the Nato decision maker. In 2019 it was added to the Ukrainian Constitution: Ukraine will join Nato. The exercises, training, planning for bases, weapons... all of that was taking place for years. It was public and nobody in the West ever denied it - they only said "when Ukraine is ready". The German-French position was not "no", but "not yet".

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about. You basically lying about it amounts to a desperate attempt to rewrite not even the present. At least have the integrity to admit it. You are pushing a lie because you were caught doing something that you don't like to admit.

    Your argumentation is childishly flawed with endless "barely won" and denying the obvious like the Ukie constitution and Nato annual statements. Go back to your usual obsessive cherry-picking, there is value and information in it. But denying the nose between your eyes because you were not caught fully red handed like with Nato in Ukraine is very sad. Admit it: Ukraine and Nato had a plan and it was blown up by Russia. Now Ukraine is suffering.

    Replies: @216, @AP

    It is the absolute sovereign right of the West to induct Ukraine into NATO, and also to forbid the Solomon Islands from aligning with China.

    Third World Communists have zero moral right to lecture the West.

    Criticizing the leadership of the West is reserved to actual Western conservatives.

  915. A123 says: • Website
    @Yevardian
    @A123

    Thank you A123 for perhaps your first ever useful comment. You have restored my faith that everyone can at least grow.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123

    Actually, I have not changed very much.

    It only seems that way because the SJW Globalist Leftoids have gone totally phweet, bonkers, nutso. They really are trying to use George Orwell’s 1984 as a “How To….” guide.

    PEACE 😇

     

  916. 216 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @Sean


    thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.
     
    "Less unlikely" is about right. Although Russia has alternatives. e.g. massive usage of stand-off weapons to destroy infrastructure (and anything else around it) as Nato used in its wars. It will not take a year, that would be unsustainable for all sides.

    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that 'better weapons' or artillery would make a difference doesn't account for the extremely hard logistics - Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.

    If Kiev throws its manpower at Russian lines, they will push forward a few kilometers at a very heavy cost. Russia has been fighting without fully using what they have - if they go medieval and start just blowing units up from distance (with no regard for civilians as they are already accused of anyway), it will be a totally unnecessary bloodbath.

    Replies: @216

    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that ‘better weapons’ or artillery would make a difference doesn’t account for the extremely hard logistics – Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.

    The sole limiting factor preventing Russian defeat is the casualty averse nature of the West. The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead to a quick routing and mass surrender of the Russian military within the borders of Ukraine. Within a month or two of NATO intervention, there would be Maidan in Moscow and Minsk. Liberals would remove the sole remaining illiberal regime in Europe.

    The course of war has led to a weakening of the Pro-Russian position in the West, eagerly helped along by Anti-White tankies that have now deemed Russia the “Asiatic Anti-Imperialists”.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @216


    ...The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead...
     
    ...to a nuclear exchange.

    So, no "Maidans", but something a lot hotter. Your silly hallucinations are very irresponsible.

    Replies: @216

  917. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

    Bucha – my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred).

    You are wasting your typing energy. It is a finite resource. Unless you are being paid.

    • Troll: Mr. Hack
  918. @songbird
    @LatW


    It seems that they’re not that radical though when it comes to “woke” things (they sound moderately conservative), although better than others, I’d imagine?
     
    Afraid, if you ever want to see a nightmare vision of politics, then Ireland is the place to go. Three of the major parties have Irish names:

    Fianna Fáil (Warriors of Destiny)
    Fine Gael (Tribe of the Irish)
    Sinn Féin ([We] Ourselves)

    You would think that one of these would at least have some mildly nationalist platform, but none of them do. They are all super woke, and Sinn Féin is probably the worst of them. You'll ask yourself, "Sinn Féin? Wasn't that the party of the IRA?" And you will see them holding banners in support of transgenderism and anti-racism.

    The only semi-based party is the National Party, founded in 2016, and they have never won a seat, and are sufficiently villainized, that they may never.

    Northern Ireland is the least enriched part of the British Isles. In this context, I'd hate to see it become reunified with RoI.

    To me, Ireland is like a mouse bitten by a globalist taipan. If the poison is enough to kill ten elephants, what chance does the mouse have?

    You know, there’s a video out on YouTube with scenes from this ambush (Foggy Dew sung by Sinead O’Connor).
     
    Was it Dmitry who posted that here originally? I forget whether it was also him who called Sinead a rare beauty. Anyway, I was much amused by this opinion, as it hard for me to appreciate a face without the hair.

    Speaking of flags, if Ireland is ever reclaimed for nationalists, I hope they ditch the tricolor, and use the harp.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU.

    Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU. Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.
     
    The recent Northern Ireland [NI] election results are not as dramatic as many try to portray them. In the 90 seat assembly only net 3 seats shifted. Unionists went from 40 to 37. Hardly a landslide shift in sentiment.

    Also, remember governance in Northern Ireland falls under the Good Friday Agreement. That deal requires separate "consent" from both the Loyalist block and the Unionist block for major changes. Needless to say, stalemate is a recurring theme. While leaving the UK is theoretically allowed under the Good Friday documents, as a practical matter there is no way to get there.
    ______

    The Brexit arrangement between the UK and EU was intended to have non-burdensome impact on goods flowing between NI and the rest of the nation. Alas, that intent now looks impossible and the result will be burdensome and restrictive. Sovereign countries, including the UK, have no reason to permanently damage their internal markets to appease EU "authoritarian liberal" bureaucrats.

    The NI part of Brexit needs to be re-worked. A logical Soft Border solution, handling people & goods differently, will make no one happy:

    -- People can move across the Ireland-NI border easily at hundreds, possibly thousands, of minor roads and paths. It makes sense to passport check individuals as they exit NI heading to the rest of the UK.

    -- High value goods on heavy lorries have a much more limited set of routing options. Customs declarations should be sent electronically before the truck reaches the Ireland-NI border. Relatively few physical checks on "major commercial" activity should occur. There must be simple procedures for small businesses and single proprietorships that move limited amounts of goods per year.

    PEACE 😇
    , @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Some people view Ireland as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for a woke thrust into Europe.

    I wonder whether it should be considered an American one or an EU one. I don't know myself.

  919. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea
     
    Ukraine wanting to join NATO is not the same as Ukraine actually joining NATO. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. And joining NATO, not military exercises, was the stated reason to invade. It was a fake reason.

    The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.
     
    Kuchma never resigned from the presidency. His courts cleared him personally of wrongdoing.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office
     
    That's the one where Yanukovich, Kuchma's designated heir, had 98.5% turnout in districts controlled by his political machine. One district even had 127% turnout. You think that was realistic? OSCE confirmed that election as fraudulent.

    Yanukovich won fairly in 2010 but not in 2004.

    It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency
     
    It's also important to note that after Yanukovch won fairly, he extra-legally usurped power over the courts and over the parliament which had been elected as an Orange parliament but was transformed through pressure by Yanukovich who controlled the prosecutor's office and forced mps to switch sides. He then changed the election laws to give himself a parliamentary majority after the 2012 elections despite the Opposition winning the popular vote in that election. So yes, he (barely) won the presidency legitimately and democratically but his total control over the courts and over the parliament were neither legitimate nor democratic.

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004
     
    You confused Yushchenko and Yanukovich and the election which was run by Kuchma was fraudulent. The election was re-run and Yanukovich lost.

    in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country
     
    You have now twice confused Yanukovich and Yushchenko which suggests that you don't really know who those people are.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power. He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time. He was overthrown in mass protests with the result that the winners of the popular vote in the 2012 parliamentary election came to power. Crimea and urban Donbas left Ukraine, and with the loss of that electorate pro-Russian parties lost any chance of ever again winning a national election in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Barbarossa

    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO

    So what was the problem with giving the Russian speaking provinces autonomy and and veto over joining Nato? And you are missing what changed after the official 2008 announcement by Nato that Ukraine and Georgia would be joining. I went to a great deal of trouble to explain the sequence of events in a long comment

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-186-russia-ukraine/#comment-5329500

    Apparently I need to spell it out. What happened in a few weeks after the announcement was Russia invaded Georgia. Hence the reason why there went from being an announcement that Ukraine would be joining Nato to an unspoken recognition that it wasn’t going to happen is that Putin did something to change the minds of Germany and France ECT ECT. Those countries were in Nato in order to avoid getting into a war with Russia, and Putin’s invasion of Georgia made clear that Ukraine would likely end up in a war with Russia over joining Nato.

    Yanukovich was not the one who wrote the Ukrainian constitution in which whoever wins the Presidency appoints the governors, which in 2015 enabled Poroshenko when president of Ukraine to appoint former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to be governor of Odessa. Poroshenko obviously thought that Ukraine could use the masterful diplomatic skills Saakashvili had shown to such advantage in 2008 when under his leadership Georgia blundered into a war with Russia. He obviously taught the Ukrainians well.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power.

    Yes well democracies are commonly wrought by controversy over leaders taking decisions some sdo not like, but when all is said and dome Preventing him from taking office by extra parliamentary actions (organized by Poroshenko) in 2004 may have given Yanukovich the idea that there were powerful integral nationalist forces plotting to remove him.

    He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time.

    It is true that Yanukovich jailed Y. Timoshenko, but Zelensky attempted to convict Poroshenko on twenty charges including one of treason, which forced him to flee the country for a time. And Zelensky trying to jail Poroshenko was what involved Bidens son, caused the Trump_Uklraine impeachment imbroglio, and indirectly led to the Biden administration’s unprecedented deluge of weapons for Ukraine and granting Zelensky a meeting with POTUS, which along with the failure to fulfill Minsk2 seems to have provoked Putin into consider mounting an actual full on invasion. Anyway, Yanukovich fairly won an election (making it quite likely that whatever frauds occurred in 2004 his support was real and he had legitimately won the most votes in 2004, as he indisputably did in 2010).

    Yanukovich was not a dictator, so overthrowing him was highly destablising act, and we cannot ignore that Poroshenko, the person who organised the demo-riots to extra-judicially remove Yanukovich from the presidency, then replaced him as President. Before he was elected President, Poroshenko was the eminence grise of Ukraine, with power to overthrow governments. It was Poroshenko and his anti ethic Russian integral nationalism using far right elements that inhibited Zelensky from enacting the Minsk 2 accords for a final settlement; he bears a great deal of responsibility for the tens of thousands of violent deaths that ensued.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Sean


    So what was the problem with giving the Russian speaking provinces autonomy and and veto over joining Nato?
     
    NATO wasn't going to happen but autonomy would mean veto over joining EU. This was a deal-breaker.

    What happened in a few weeks after the announcement was Russia invaded Georgia. Hence the reason why there went from being an announcement that Ukraine would be joining Nato to an unspoken recognition that it wasn’t going to happen is that Putin did something to change the minds of Germany and France ECT ECT. Those countries were in Nato in order to avoid getting into a war with Russia, and Putin’s invasion of Georgia made clear that Ukraine would likely end up in a war with Russia over joining Nato.
     
    I don't disagree that the war with Georgia eliminated any chances for Germany and France. to agree to Ukraine joining NATO.

    Yanukovich was not the one who wrote the Ukrainian constitution in which whoever wins the Presidency appoints the governors
     
    That wasn't the problem. The problem is that after winning the Presidency Yanukovich reversed the previous parliamentary election results, giving himself an unelected control over parliament. He also packed the courts with his people, who then approved this unconstitutional act. The equivalent in the USA would have been a Democrat winning the presidency and using illegal means to replace both a conservative Supreme Court and a Republican congress. In this way, a democratically elected president became an undemocratically elected master of the courts and legislature too. Democratically elected people can become dictators.

    It is true that Yanukovich jailed Y. Timoshenko, but Zelensky attempted to convict Poroshenko on twenty charges including one of treason, which forced him to flee the country for a time.
     
    Poroshenko was never imprisoned nor even placed under arrest when he returned to Ukraine. Medvedchuk was placed under house arrest. Yanukovich imprisoned his enemies.

    Anyway, Yanukovich fairly won an election (making it quite likely that whatever frauds occurred in 2004 his support was real
     
    In 2004 he had the support of slightly less than half of the electorate. Fraud (such as 125% turnout in his areas) gave him over 49% and victory.

    and he had legitimately won the most votes in 2004, as he indisputably did in 2010
     
    Nonsense. In 2010 the pro-Western incumbent government had seen the global financial crash and the pro-Western politicians were feuding with each other - one of them even told his supporters to sit out the election. As a result, Yanukovich was in a much better position than in 2004. and yet, even under such ideal conditions he still barely won. This supports the fact that he did not win in 2004, when conditions were much less favorable for him (pro-Westerners were united).

    Yanukovich was not a dictator
     
    He was trying to build a Belarussian-style despotism but was overthrown before he could solidify his rule.
  920. @216
    @Beckow


    If the current trends continue, in a few months Russia will control all of Donbas and effectively all of the Black See coast. Any counter-offensives by Kiev would cause huge casualties to Ukrainians. The hope that ‘better weapons’ or artillery would make a difference doesn’t account for the extremely hard logistics – Russians control the air (not fully, but enough) and the fighting areas are squeezed. Moving in and out during the summer will be difficult.
     
    The sole limiting factor preventing Russian defeat is the casualty averse nature of the West. The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead to a quick routing and mass surrender of the Russian military within the borders of Ukraine. Within a month or two of NATO intervention, there would be Maidan in Moscow and Minsk. Liberals would remove the sole remaining illiberal regime in Europe.

    The course of war has led to a weakening of the Pro-Russian position in the West, eagerly helped along by Anti-White tankies that have now deemed Russia the "Asiatic Anti-Imperialists".

    Replies: @Beckow

    …The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead…

    …to a nuclear exchange.

    So, no “Maidans”, but something a lot hotter. Your silly hallucinations are very irresponsible.

    • Replies: @216
    @Beckow

    It is the inalienable sovereign right of the United States to place its troops in Ukraine upon the invitation of the host government, it is arguably the sovereign right of the US to place troops in Ukraine even if Zelensky refused.

    Unless there was an outright invasion of pre-2014 Russian territory by NATO, there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine. And even then it would be pushing it, I don't think the US would use nuclear weapons if the Chinese invaded Hawaii.

    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness. With political will and far-right governance, the West is easily capable of restoring its rightful and historic dominance.

    Replies: @Beckow

  921. @Sean
    @Anatoly Karlin


    I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer
     
    To my way of thinking Dubious, the Russia effort is across along the entire line of contact, a very broad front . If Russia was capable of winning this in such a timeframe as you suggest it would have would have gathered the wherewithal at one time and place for a much quicker win. Personally I think, the ground hardening in Summer may see a Ukrainian offensive making significant gains. Unless the Russians are well dug in as a result of being pounded by pinpoint accurate artillery that outranges there own

    Russian usage of nukes
     
    It is a red herring when Western pundits imply it may be against Nato. However a Russian tactical thermonuclear weapon on a military target in West Ukraine seems to me becoming less unlikely by the day. Putin does not have a year.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Wokechoke

    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?

    It’s rather the reverse. Once these streams, creeks and assorted small rivers dry up a bit (notably the flooding of the forest area around Oskil the Russians will be best suited to use their enormous supplies of vehicles off road). Tracked vehicles are not really designed to go through heavy mud in the freezing weather. The water in the mud expands and contracts and destroys the drive shafts/transmission etc. off roading in Autumn and spring was never possible.

    If I may, much of the fighting in Winter and Spring was designed to give Russia key topographical features. Izyum, Popasna, Kherson. From there they plan to develop larger battles.

    The Russians could in theory start new incursions into Sumy and Kharkov again. Not that the Russians will be thinking in those terms but the rivers and streams in Eastern Ukraine are muddy messes. I’ve seen the worst of the footage from ww2 and it is a churned up mess outside of hot summer dry spells.

    Entire campaign up to now could be interpreted as an effort to capture key crossings, hills and ports for more classically mass manouvre warfare. Are the Ukies in the area even getting petrol/gas/diesel fuel to drive around?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Wokechoke


    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?
     
    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything.
    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,
    3. There are far more Ukrainian troops in Donbass than is being admitted and these include the crack professional units

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @A123

  922. 216 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @216


    ...The deployment of NATO ground troops and air power would lead...
     
    ...to a nuclear exchange.

    So, no "Maidans", but something a lot hotter. Your silly hallucinations are very irresponsible.

    Replies: @216

    It is the inalienable sovereign right of the United States to place its troops in Ukraine upon the invitation of the host government, it is arguably the sovereign right of the US to place troops in Ukraine even if Zelensky refused.

    Unless there was an outright invasion of pre-2014 Russian territory by NATO, there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine. And even then it would be pushing it, I don’t think the US would use nuclear weapons if the Chinese invaded Hawaii.

    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness. With political will and far-right governance, the West is easily capable of restoring its rightful and historic dominance.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @216

    I suspect you are a not serious, but whatever.


    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness.
     
    That's exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades - they won't be "restoring" anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

    there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine.
     
    They don't need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the "pre-2014"? Why would that matter?

    Nato can come in directly and try to help Kiev and it would most likely lead to a nuclear exchange. (West likes the "most likely" expression a lot, it actually applies here.) Maybe a small one, maybe only some countries - Poland seems to be auditioning for the top spot. Then we don't know what would happen...but the Western men being wimpy is not the only reason they are not fighting in Ukraine...

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

  923. @216
    @Beckow

    It is the inalienable sovereign right of the United States to place its troops in Ukraine upon the invitation of the host government, it is arguably the sovereign right of the US to place troops in Ukraine even if Zelensky refused.

    Unless there was an outright invasion of pre-2014 Russian territory by NATO, there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine. And even then it would be pushing it, I don't think the US would use nuclear weapons if the Chinese invaded Hawaii.

    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness. With political will and far-right governance, the West is easily capable of restoring its rightful and historic dominance.

    Replies: @Beckow

    I suspect you are a not serious, but whatever.

    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness.

    That’s exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades – they won’t be “restoring” anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

    there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine.

    They don’t need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the “pre-2014”? Why would that matter?

    Nato can come in directly and try to help Kiev and it would most likely lead to a nuclear exchange. (West likes the “most likely” expression a lot, it actually applies here.) Maybe a small one, maybe only some countries – Poland seems to be auditioning for the top spot. Then we don’t know what would happen…but the Western men being wimpy is not the only reason they are not fighting in Ukraine…

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Beckow

    The modern battlefield looks uninhabitable. If you are asked to hold a position you need to be either in a built up area with highrise apartments or have some kind of prefabricated squad sized concrete reinforced bunker that can be plopped in a spot with an earth excavator, then filled over with turf and foliage while you take refuge during an artillery barrage.

    , @216
    @Beckow


    That’s exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades – they won’t be “restoring” anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

     

    You are talking down to victims of psychological warfare, who have been told by almost all authority figures that defending their ethnic, cultural and religious interests is the height of immorality. Russian state propaganda isn't helping, because they claim that they are acting to suppress woebegone Nazis, which makes Russia "antifa".

    The US Right is looking at an imminent ban of abortion, something that the dictator Putin cannot accomplish. That one example could be the whole West if we break out of this mental prison. Copying Poland's abortion laws would easily fix the Russian demographic problem, and obviate the invasion fear that supposedly motivated this war.

    They don’t need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the “pre-2014”? Why would that matter?

     

    A mushroom cloud going up over Lviv means that no one will doubt the moral supremacy of the West for ages to come. Russia isn't going to use nuclear weapons first, especially not when America has a new bomber that can destroy all conventional Russian capabilities.

    Ask Israel about "pre-1967", then you'll understand what "pre-2014" means here.
  924. @Beckow
    @216

    I suspect you are a not serious, but whatever.


    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness.
     
    That's exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades - they won't be "restoring" anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

    there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine.
     
    They don't need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the "pre-2014"? Why would that matter?

    Nato can come in directly and try to help Kiev and it would most likely lead to a nuclear exchange. (West likes the "most likely" expression a lot, it actually applies here.) Maybe a small one, maybe only some countries - Poland seems to be auditioning for the top spot. Then we don't know what would happen...but the Western men being wimpy is not the only reason they are not fighting in Ukraine...

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

    The modern battlefield looks uninhabitable. If you are asked to hold a position you need to be either in a built up area with highrise apartments or have some kind of prefabricated squad sized concrete reinforced bunker that can be plopped in a spot with an earth excavator, then filled over with turf and foliage while you take refuge during an artillery barrage.

  925. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Well there was a (Ukrainian) video from a TB2 of a helicopter disembarking troops onto Snake Island, shortly before being blown up, which Ukraine claimed was a Russian helicopter.

    Though for some reason the troops in question adopt prone firing positions on hitting the ground, which is a very strange for Russians who are supposedly in control of the island to do.

     

    Do you have a link to this? I haven't seen it and I follow people who post Ukrainian stuff.

    The alternate explanation is that the island was emptied after the destruction of Russians anti-air systems and the Ukrainians walked into a Russian trap (which they are now trying to pass off as a peremoga for May 9).
     
    So those jets makin explosions on the island were really Russian jets?

    It's just not realistic that Ukrainians would send troops onto an island that is a sitting duck for missiles. It is realistic that they would hit any troops or facilities on that island which is what the video I posted shows.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Here is the video: https://t.me/rybar/32365

    There was initial skepticism about it being a Russian helicopter on account of aforementioned reasons, though it appears this really was a Russian Mi-8: https://t.me/rybar/32392

    It appears for once this was not an Ukrofake, though a skeptical stance is understandable, given their penchant for lying. https://t.me/rustroyka1945/2104

    • Replies: @216
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It would take no more than a single F-35 squadron to flip the script of this war.

    https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1522990411182407682?cxt=HHwWhIDU7bbt36IqAAAA

    It would help if someone posted the wreckage.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

  926. A123 says: • Website
    @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU.

    Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird

    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU. Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.

    The recent Northern Ireland [NI] election results are not as dramatic as many try to portray them. In the 90 seat assembly only net 3 seats shifted. Unionists went from 40 to 37. Hardly a landslide shift in sentiment.

    Also, remember governance in Northern Ireland falls under the Good Friday Agreement. That deal requires separate “consent” from both the Loyalist block and the Unionist block for major changes. Needless to say, stalemate is a recurring theme. While leaving the UK is theoretically allowed under the Good Friday documents, as a practical matter there is no way to get there.
    ______

    The Brexit arrangement between the UK and EU was intended to have non-burdensome impact on goods flowing between NI and the rest of the nation. Alas, that intent now looks impossible and the result will be burdensome and restrictive. Sovereign countries, including the UK, have no reason to permanently damage their internal markets to appease EU “authoritarian liberal” bureaucrats.

    The NI part of Brexit needs to be re-worked. A logical Soft Border solution, handling people & goods differently, will make no one happy:

    — People can move across the Ireland-NI border easily at hundreds, possibly thousands, of minor roads and paths. It makes sense to passport check individuals as they exit NI heading to the rest of the UK.

    — High value goods on heavy lorries have a much more limited set of routing options. Customs declarations should be sent electronically before the truck reaches the Ireland-NI border. Relatively few physical checks on “major commercial” activity should occur. There must be simple procedures for small businesses and single proprietorships that move limited amounts of goods per year.

    PEACE 😇

  927. 216 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @216

    I suspect you are a not serious, but whatever.


    Western lethargy, division and decadence should not be seen as an indicator of weakness.
     
    That's exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades - they won't be "restoring" anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

    there would be no justification to use nuclear weapons according to their doctrine.
     
    They don't need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the "pre-2014"? Why would that matter?

    Nato can come in directly and try to help Kiev and it would most likely lead to a nuclear exchange. (West likes the "most likely" expression a lot, it actually applies here.) Maybe a small one, maybe only some countries - Poland seems to be auditioning for the top spot. Then we don't know what would happen...but the Western men being wimpy is not the only reason they are not fighting in Ukraine...

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

    That’s exactly what it is, what else would it be? Counter-intuitive statements like yours are usually wrong. The West is not just weak, but in a state of hysteria from getting itself in that situation over decades – they won’t be “restoring” anything. They will be glad to hold on to what they have now.

    You are talking down to victims of psychological warfare, who have been told by almost all authority figures that defending their ethnic, cultural and religious interests is the height of immorality. Russian state propaganda isn’t helping, because they claim that they are acting to suppress woebegone Nazis, which makes Russia “antifa”.

    The US Right is looking at an imminent ban of abortion, something that the dictator Putin cannot accomplish. That one example could be the whole West if we break out of this mental prison. Copying Poland’s abortion laws would easily fix the Russian demographic problem, and obviate the invasion fear that supposedly motivated this war.

    They don’t need justification, in wars there are no rules. Need needs no law. If they want one, the artificial distinction between Crimea-Donbas and Russia itself can be ignored. And the “pre-2014”? Why would that matter?

    A mushroom cloud going up over Lviv means that no one will doubt the moral supremacy of the West for ages to come. Russia isn’t going to use nuclear weapons first, especially not when America has a new bomber that can destroy all conventional Russian capabilities.

    Ask Israel about “pre-1967”, then you’ll understand what “pre-2014” means here.

  928. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Here is the video: https://t.me/rybar/32365

    There was initial skepticism about it being a Russian helicopter on account of aforementioned reasons, though it appears this really was a Russian Mi-8: https://t.me/rybar/32392

    It appears for once this was not an Ukrofake, though a skeptical stance is understandable, given their penchant for lying. https://t.me/rustroyka1945/2104

    Replies: @216

    It would take no more than a single F-35 squadron to flip the script of this war.

    It would help if someone posted the wreckage.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @216

    Meanwhile zero evidence for those RF claims, while Ukrainians over the several days posted all Snake island video evidence of destroyed RF stuff - AA systems, one small landing-transport ship and helicopter with troops, also bombing raid on that island.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @216

    Even a single spectacular Ukrainian tactical victory makes zero long-term difference, multiple such scenarios are inflicted on the Ukrainians in the Donbass - and in Kharkov, where Ukrainians chasing "retreating" Russian just got pulverized by artillery once out in the open.

    https://t.me/bograta/11263

    PS. Poland does harass its women with extreme anti-abortion law but it has no impact on its fertility rates, which are in fact lower than Russia's as well as that of the great bulk of Eastern Europe. As a low IQ Western supremacist rightoid, it is not surprising you're unaware of that.

    Replies: @216

  929. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

    The Buryat units have been a huge liability during this war.

    A separate report by the Moscow Times found that two formations from Buryatia, the 11th Guards Separate Air Assault Brigade and 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, had suffered the most significant single unit losses in the war to date.

    Descension between Buryat troops and Chechen Kadyrovites could be evidenced in late March when Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov shared a video of 37th Guards Motor Rifle Bridge commander, Colonel Yuri Medvedev, being transported to a field hospital after being run over by an armored vehicle near Makariv.

    Medvedev would ultimately succumb to his injuries to join the growing list of KIA soldiers from Buryatia.

    Both Western and Ukrainian intelligence sources later revealed Medvedev had been intentionally run over by one of his own soldiers who was angered by the high numbers of combat losses suffered in Ukraine.

    The group has a history of patriotism (soldiers died at a higher rate than even Russians during WWII). However, the two Buryat brigades are out of control and need to be broken up.

  930. German_reader says:

    LOL.

  931. A123 says: • Website

    Bulgaria will have an option to fully replace Russian natural gas by this fall: (1)

    A new pipeline — built during the COVID-19 pandemic, tested and due to start commercial operation in June — would ensure that large volumes of gas flow between the two countries in both directions to generate electricity, fuel industry and heat homes.

    The new pipeline connection, called the Gas Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria [IGB], will give the country access to ports in neighboring Greece that are importing liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and also will bring gas from Azerbaijan through a new pipeline system that ends in Italy.

    Bulgaria imported 90% of its gas from Russia but only consumes 3 billion cubic meters annually — 30 times less than lead consumer Germany, according to 2020 data from EU statistics agency Eurostat.

    The IGB project will have an initial capacity of ~3 bcm/yr, and can be increased to ~5 bcm/yr by adding additional compressor stations (2).
    ___

    Yet another #EpicFailOMG to the Ukie Maximalist warmongers.

    Will they show contrition for misusing “Gas to Bulgarian” as false justification for Ukrainian War Crimes against the civilian population of Crimea? I am not holding my breathe waiting for that apology. Apparently being a SuperHyperUltraNationalist means Never Having To Say You’re Sorry!

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-business-germany-274aae7fd9dfa88bab1dd26200db9423

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/gas-interconnector-greece-bulgaria-igb-pipeline-project/

     

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    This only further consolidates your two faced duplicity of a taken slimy position as RF state TVs has been boasting since 2014 that they replaced any lacking water in Crimea by boring deep well holes and restored watering capabilities which were needed.

  932. @216
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It would take no more than a single F-35 squadron to flip the script of this war.

    https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1522990411182407682?cxt=HHwWhIDU7bbt36IqAAAA

    It would help if someone posted the wreckage.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

    Meanwhile zero evidence for those RF claims, while Ukrainians over the several days posted all Snake island video evidence of destroyed RF stuff – AA systems, one small landing-transport ship and helicopter with troops, also bombing raid on that island.

  933. @A123
    Bulgaria will have an option to fully replace Russian natural gas by this fall: (1)

    A new pipeline — built during the COVID-19 pandemic, tested and due to start commercial operation in June — would ensure that large volumes of gas flow between the two countries in both directions to generate electricity, fuel industry and heat homes.
    ...
    The new pipeline connection, called the Gas Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria [IGB], will give the country access to ports in neighboring Greece that are importing liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and also will bring gas from Azerbaijan through a new pipeline system that ends in Italy.
    ...
    Bulgaria imported 90% of its gas from Russia but only consumes 3 billion cubic meters annually — 30 times less than lead consumer Germany, according to 2020 data from EU statistics agency Eurostat.
     
    The IGB project will have an initial capacity of ~3 bcm/yr, and can be increased to ~5 bcm/yr by adding additional compressor stations (2).
    ___

    Yet another #EpicFailOMG to the Ukie Maximalist warmongers.

    Will they show contrition for misusing "Gas to Bulgarian" as false justification for Ukrainian War Crimes against the civilian population of Crimea? I am not holding my breathe waiting for that apology. Apparently being a SuperHyperUltraNationalist means Never Having To Say You're Sorry!

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-business-germany-274aae7fd9dfa88bab1dd26200db9423

    (2) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/gas-interconnector-greece-bulgaria-igb-pipeline-project/

     
    https://storage.googleapis.com/afs-prod/media/286be18d6a7248eab0d6127d15e15fd7/1000.jpeg

    Replies: @sudden death

    This only further consolidates your two faced duplicity of a taken slimy position as RF state TVs has been boasting since 2014 that they replaced any lacking water in Crimea by boring deep well holes and restored watering capabilities which were needed.

    • Troll: A123
  934. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Bucha - my cousin lived there, she and her family escaped in the first few days when it was easy to do so (Russians took the town, Ukrainians took it back enabling escape, then Russians came back and kept if for a few weeks, which is when the rapes and murders occurred). She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband's mother's sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there, tapped conversations, etc. One can claim that this is all faked but the bottom line is the locals who witnessed it knew who the culprits were. The Russians soldiers who looted Bucha were even seen sending their stuff home from Belarus.

    Apparently, the unit primarily responsible was redeployed to a place outside Kharkiv and sent into fire zone where they were mostly wiped out. A convenient way for Russia to get rid of inconvenient people so they can't answer questions.

    There is also a precedent for this type of stuff. Inexperienced troops under pressure do this sort of thing. Happened in Chechnya a lot , by Russian soldiers. Americans did it in My Lai. And of course in Berlin.

    :::::::::::::::

    Train station - I don't have any personal connection there. Most likely it was a Russian missile, locals know from what direction missiles go and if only one or two claimed it came from the Ukrainian side most likely it did not, there would be widespread claims to the contrary (one can always dig up a person or two to say what you want). IIRC before the civilian toll was clear Russians were bragging about it. I haven't followed it that closely so I suppose there is a chance it was a Ukrainian misfire. But direct hit on railroad infrastructure suggests it was the Russians (what are the odds of a misfire hitting a railway station and not some random field?).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Emil Nikola Richard, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Ron Unz

    She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband’s mother’s sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there

    I should have clarified that my mention of the Bucha Massacre was in reference to those 15-odd bodies lying in the road that received a great deal of discussion at the time as to who killed them and why. I don’t have any position on other things that happened in Bucha.

    The official MSM narrative is that the people had been killed by the Russians with their bodies only “discovered” a couple of days after the Russians pulled out. According to the MSM, satellite evidence proves that the bodies had been lying there for something like two weeks, which seems extremely implausible to me given what happens to bodies lying in the open air for such a long period. Several experienced military people claim that the bodies had obviously only been dead a day or two, proving that the Ukrainians killed them after reoccupying the town.

    Also, most of the victims were wearing white-cloth armbands, which apparently indicates lack of hostility to Russian troops, and the others seemed to have their hands bound with such white cloth. Near their bodies were unopened Russian meal-kits, which the Russians had distributed to local “friendlies.” This further suggests they were considered pro-Russian elements.

    Supposedly, a Ukrainian website announced that Bucha was being subjected to a “cleansing operation” aimed at traitors. This would fit with the other facts of what happened.

    I don’t speak Russian or Ukrainian and don’t have military expertise, but all of this seems very plausible to me. Why would all the victims of the Russian massacre be wearing pro-Russian white-cloths?

    We’ve published 4-5 articles on the Bucha massacre and I listened to several of Scott Ritter’s podcasts:

    https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/

    • Replies: @AP
    @Ron Unz

    Note: I am posting a copy of this to the next Open Thread.

    The problem with pretending that the Bucha rapes and massacres didn't happen or that the Ukrainians themselves did it is that Bucha is full of people who can recall when it happened and who did it. Even ore than in Sandy Hook, it's hard to deny something with those characteristics. Also, while it is possible (indeed likely) that there wuld be some pro-Russian collaborators there, Bucha and the rest of Kiev is very nationalistic (as much as Galicia) so this number would be small and would not account for more than a fraction of the deaths (if, indeed, collaborators were killed).

    If Russia were smarter, rather than deny the massacres they would justify them by stating that the civilians made themselves legitimate targets by helping the Ukrainian military. There was mass anti-Russian activity in those towns:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ukrainian-civilians-risked-their-lives-to-help-win-the-battle-for-kyiv-11652002200

    "“Everyone here was doing all they could to get Russian troop movement across to our boys,” said Natalia Mohilni, a homemaker in Novyi Bykiv, who had called in soldier locations in and around the village, where locals said the Russians had set up a mobile crematorium to discard the dead."

    "“No one wants the destruction, but we wanted the Russians even less,” she said. “Not having a chimney means we need to wait to use the wood oven, but that’s fine.”

    The strikes against the incoming Russian formations prevented crucial reinforcements and supplies from reaching Kyiv from the east, leaving Moscow’s troops undermanned and undersupplied, said Ukrainian officials and defense analysts. By the end of March, Russia had decided its attempt to seize Kyiv had failed and repositioned its forces in the country’s east."

    ::::::::::::

    I remember backward troglodytes like Martyanov scoffing at Ukrainian IT prowess compared to Soviet-era tractor manufacturing, saying it was useless. Well:

    To streamline the process for Ukrainian defenders, the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation launched chatbots on the popular Telegram messaging app that let Ukrainians share Russian troop locations online in a single database that went through the country’s Security Service. The capital’s Kyiv Digital app, which once helped people pay parking tickets and notify residents of temporary water cuts, was reconfigured to help users spot Russian troop movements and provide them to the military staff of the Armed Forces.



    “The information was all given to the general staff and it was checked out, triangulated with other data and if the information was confirmed we would shoot to kill,” said Oleg Zhdanov, an independent Ukrainian military expert. “The information was particularly important during the first weeks of the conflict when columns of armor were coming straight down the road.”

    In the following weeks, he added, the ability to stop fuel, water and food supplies helped degrade the performance of Russia’s troops around Kyiv.

    The platforms gave instructions to provide “location, movement, volume of military equipment and personnel of the occupier.” Others explained to villagers how to drop pins on Google maps to send into security services and reminded users to delete their messages to prevent being caught by Russian troops.

  935. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    So far as WW1 comparisons go, it is Russia fighting as Great Britain at about 30% of its potential vs. Ukraine as a USSR backed up by Lend-Lease & Bletchley fighting at 80% of its potential.

    Would a 150M Great Britain have won vs. a 35M USSR, even one outfitted with Western gear and intelligence? To ask the question is to answer it. But, lacking both the superlative combat effectiveness and greater casualty tolerance of Nazi Germany (it is not even using conscripts like the Turks were doing in Syria), it would fight in a cautious, plodding manner, attritioning the USSR with artillery and strategic bombing (Kalibrs etc.). Apart from that, the problem for Ukraine is that its TFR 20 years ago was close 1 vs. 6 for the USSR in the 1920s, and there are more or less open borders with Europe for non-svidomist men to escape to.

    ***

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize. I will reiterate my view that shock and disbelief remains inevitable, it will just take half a year to a year as opposed to the few weeks I was initially expecting. It could theoretically go on for longer, even much longer, if Zelensky goes full totalitarian, but that's hard to imagine in the Ukrainian context. The Franco-Prussian War now seems like a good frame of reference, with the equivalent of the Battle of Sedan taking place in a more protracted and attritional form in the Donbass, with subsequent units to be much less well trained, ad hoc, and poorly armed.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean, @Triteleia Laxa

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.

    Anatoly, I haven’t addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn’t begin to describe them. You’re right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren’t as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won’t happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn’t begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    • LOL: German_reader
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Triteleia Laxa


    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look.
     
    Lol. You must be unfamiliar with Karlin's work.
    , @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Nukes are for existential risks
     
    I would say ICBMs with thermonuclear warhead are for retaliation from a strategic attack with the weapons already landing. The reason for not using a tactical nuke is it might lead to strategic nuke use. However that does not apply to Ukraine, which has no nukes of it own and not country willing to nuke Russia for them. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so the obligation to use any class of nukes to defend Ukraine does not exist. Nor would it be a reasonable option for America because its superiority on the nuclear plane is merely nominal.

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.
     
    Exactly, and in nuclear terms Russian is the little person who has the greater level of resolve to take a killing but not a beating and will reach into their pocket and pull out the Saturday night special. America will keep this conventional, if theUkrainian proxy does too well against Russia and it nukes the Ukrainian army, then America will not go nuclear at even the lowest tactical tit for tat level because that would be stepping into a realm where Russia goes from Goofy to Godzilla.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    (1) Russia doesn't need nukes to win against Ukraine, they are only (probably) coming out to play if NATO intervenes openly and on a large scale.

    (2) The assessment of how the war is going, and by extension the likelihood of nukes usage, is made by Western Russophobes and most Western Russophiles on the basis of Onyx and Twitter BrOSINT, which explicitly shills for Ukraine. Meanwhile, many of those who posted inconvenient videos for the Ukrainians have simply been kicked off Twitter, and exist only on Telegram. Latest example: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1522633342738444289
    Happily for those who don't want nuclear weapons usage, Ukraine's peremogas are more PR than real.

    (3) Your democidal hatred against the Chinese (which you unconvincingly try to paper over) and bloodthirsty if impotent fantasies about stomping in Gonzalo's head (spoiler: Unlikely to work, given you're a middle-aged female wine alcoholic) betray a psyche at least as ruined if not more so than any of the other commenters here you love to psychoanalize. I would suggest cutting down on the drinking, and to reexamine your commitment to the Western Supremacist worldview more broadly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

    , @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I know nobody appreciates your wearisome spiel here except Mr. Hack, so it's really a waste of time, but what actually said was that I don't think Russia continuing the war at its current level of engagement is a good idea, it needs to go on total-war footing, especially if it wants to discourage/pre-empt Western military escalation.


    These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn’t begin to describe them.
     
    I did not advocate nukes, don't be so blatantly dishonest. Are you aware your beloved Israel has a nuclear first policy? I think I've been as neutral as one can be in the circumstances, this is basically (another) ex-Sovok civil war, it was going to get exceptionally ugly very fast, so anyone wanting to lionise either side is going to end up lying pretty quickly. In as far as my concerns have been more Russia-orientated, that's simply because Russia has a far larger population, a political system without clear rules of succession, with many mutually hostile peoples inside it, has nuclear weapons, and there's already a precedent for a nuclear-state's implosion.

    Most the former USSR's ethnic republics had things much better Gorbachev screwed everything up, pretty much none of them came out better except arguably the Baltics, and they still got demographic collapse anyway.
    Anyway, there are conflicting ethnic interests even for a deracinated person like myself, if Russia collapses, Armenia is likely to be wiped off the map, it will be worse off than Russia itself, probably even Ukraine. utu hypothesised a world in which shared caucasian NATO membership would restrain conflict, but frankly Turkey practically acts as an independent actor these days, nor did it ever moderate their Kurdish policies. This also explains why Simonyan is such a hawk.

    Europe is a different matter, but the US and to a lesser extent the UK or France, are so far away and so secure, I think the 'pro-Russian' people simply see the conflict in terms that it's not their business anymore. The US could withdraw entirely from foreign affairs and it would fine, that's certainly not true for E. Europe.

    Replies: @Beckow

  936. @utu
    @Yellowface Anon

    "China rules the world by then." - No, China should know its place as it has always been in history, Taiwan is independent and sovereign state. China will throw some tantrums and that's all of China flexing its muscle.

    Mr. China, concentrate on your internal market. That's where your happy future is. Forget about the dreams of being the world power. Concentrate on making the Chinese happy and affluent. You do not not need Vietnamese, Koreans , Filipinos or Taiwanese for it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Triteleia Laxa

    FOR YELLOWFACE ANON:

    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.

    Honestly, if nuclear war ever broke out between Russia and NATO, I would back the first salvo from both participants being sent straight to China. Not because it would be fair, as fair is a specious concept, but just because of the slimy small d*ck energy that emanates from every pro-Chinese partisan who always salivates over death and destruction elsewhere in the world so that their pinprick ego might not feel so inadequate in the aftermath. And yes, inadequate you do feel. It grosses me out even here on the other side of the world.

    Bigger yes, but the paragraph above is quite literally a giant f*ck you. And I actually like Chinese people. I just find your persona here repulsive. No joke. Though in vino veritas and all. Stop being such a tw*t.

    Everything in italics is all you need to know about yourself for this stage in your life.

  937. @awry
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Of course, there will be few recriminations in Ukraine against the tiny minority of Ukrainians who supported Russia, but the liberal government of Zelenskyy is nothing to fear and any serious dissenters can leave to Russia anyway.
     
    Ukraine is far from liberal in that respect. Zelenskiy's government banned some opposition parties, imprisoned or forced to exile some opposition politicians (one was extradited by Spain recently), banned most opposition media, and since the war started it placed all media under government control (the latter is understandable). SBU works like Gestapo or KGB, disappearing or executing dissenters "Nacht und Nebel" style (nationalist militias also, they did some quite nastly stuff in 2014). Supporting Russia was a life risk in Ukraine since 2014, not just since February 24. Ukraine will be a borderline fascistic country after this war, in some respects it already resembled one, like the ubiquitous blue-yellow colors everywhere (even on lampposts), the ubiquitous "Slava Ukraini" slogan and other expressions of ultra-nationalistic sentiment etc. Ukrainian nationalists have long been making online hit lists of those disagreeing with them, disclosing their personal details, home addresses, etc. and encouraged them to be killed or harassed. Now they are also calling for the death of the Hungarian Prime Minister along with many other Hungarian and other European politicians.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Get a grip. I cannot think of a government that has ever been as liberal and tolerant while their cities are destroyed and people are murdered. Your carping hysteria is context-inappropriate. You stupid.

    E.g were I Ukrainian and in Kharkiv I would personally kick Gonzala Lira down the stairs before running down afterwards and stamping on his head, and I know that everyone deserves love and compassion.

    You see, although misused by psychopaths, there still actually is such a thing as asking for it, and living in Ukraine while the entire might of the Russian military is trying to obliterate it, and supporting such obliteration, is more than asking to get lynched, it is full-on begging for it.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Wouldn't you be fighting Russians in the front line of the suburbs instead of playing internet bloodsports though? I thought you claimed to have the equivalent of a Satrean-like conviction? The dilemma of folks who live in overrun towns is much more interesting. There was nothing good about the conduct of French resissytance fighters who shaved off the hair of local prostitutes who slept with Germans. These people could have escaped France and joined Le Clerk or De Gaulle. No need to knock your neighbors down the stairs.

    De Gaulle had the guts to follow his instincts and decamp to London liberal Frenchmen followed him. At least the Frenchmen who joined the SS tried to fight the USSR, followed up their ideology with conviction and got to the burbs of Moscow like proper warriors.

    , @awry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    There were much more people since 2014, not just Gonzalo Lira, who didn't do anything beyond - as a foreigner - saying things on his vlog, but probably only survived because there was too much talk about him. Ukraine summarily executed many people including mayors and a member of it's negotiating team. Apparently they sticked some of their killings on the Russians - probably in Bucha too, where the Azov types went in to "clean up" before the news started about the Russian massacre - in the style of classic Soviet propaganda (like "evil Russian invaders shot mayor while handing out bread to the people" etc. Both sides are using the classic Soviet propaganda tropes (they just forgot to add that he was shot through a loaf of bread clenched to his chest) plus the tactics known since Pallywood... after using towns and cities as fortifications they say that the evil Russians are destroying civilian houses and murdering civilians "just because they are evil", classic war propaganda on both sides, just waiting for the mangled and bayoneted babies to show up, maybe they did just missed it). You don't have to introduce the Russians doing war, our country did see it too as most of Eastern Europe, or we've seen it recently in Chechnya and Syria, but still some news stories and Kyiv rhetoric are way over the top even compared to these wars. After all this it's totally unhinged to say that Russia could just go home, with a psyched out and armed to the teeth neighbor on its Western border.

  938. Sean says:
    @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?


    It's rather the reverse. Once these streams, creeks and assorted small rivers dry up a bit (notably the flooding of the forest area around Oskil the Russians will be best suited to use their enormous supplies of vehicles off road). Tracked vehicles are not really designed to go through heavy mud in the freezing weather. The water in the mud expands and contracts and destroys the drive shafts/transmission etc. off roading in Autumn and spring was never possible.

    If I may, much of the fighting in Winter and Spring was designed to give Russia key topographical features. Izyum, Popasna, Kherson. From there they plan to develop larger battles.

    The Russians could in theory start new incursions into Sumy and Kharkov again. Not that the Russians will be thinking in those terms but the rivers and streams in Eastern Ukraine are muddy messes. I've seen the worst of the footage from ww2 and it is a churned up mess outside of hot summer dry spells.

    Entire campaign up to now could be interpreted as an effort to capture key crossings, hills and ports for more classically mass manouvre warfare. Are the Ukies in the area even getting petrol/gas/diesel fuel to drive around?

    Replies: @Sean

    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?

    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything.
    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,
    3. There are far more Ukrainian troops in Donbass than is being admitted and these include the crack professional units

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    I looked closely at the terrain topology elevations etc. Drying or dry ground favors the side with the vehicles for off road driving around here.

    The construction of the houses, depots, factories, the density of the population, industrial characteristics, hydrology. Why do you argue with a Strawman you have just built?

    Replies: @Sean

    , @A123
    @Sean



    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?
     
    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything
     
    Not-The-President Biden has announced some massive funding numbers. After purchases are made from the U.S. Military Industrial Complex [MIC], how does the material reach the front lines? Ukraine is functionally land locked by Russia's presence in the Black Sea.

    -- Light items may be airlifted to Germany or Poland
    -- Heavy items will spend at least 2 weeks on a freighter.

    The main resupply will be across the border with Poland at the extreme West of Ukraine. Lviv to Kiev is ~400 miles. After that it can be allocated to supply depots and be sent another ~200-300 miles before it reaches the rear echelons of the Ukrainian forces.

    There are any number of ways that Russian forces can interfere with replenishment. (1)

    It doesn’t sound like a very complex military strategy on the part of Russia actually. As the U.S. weapons convoys are pushed from Western Ukraine toward Eastern Ukraine (Donbas region) the Russians identify the locations and blow them up with cruise missiles.

    “Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday said it had destroyed a large stockpile of military equipment from the United States and European countries near the Bohodukhiv railway station in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. The ministry said it had hit 18 Ukrainian military facilities overnight, including three ammunition depots in Dachne, near the port city of Odesa.”
     
    France24 seems to confirm this report.
     
    Even if the incompetent Gen. SJW Milley manages to ship what is needed, chances of reliable resupply are slim.

    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,
     
    That is relevant to defense. However all of the Ukie Maximalists keep ducking the key question, "How will Ukrainian forces advance over open terrain to recapture Mariupol?"

    Ukraine could not exploit the soft target from Russia's voluntary withdrawal around Kiev. What hope do they have against a much harder target like Mariupol?

    The situation continues to evolve towards a messy LOSE-LOSE scenario. Russia does poorly while Ukraine performs even worse. A negotiated armistice is the best obvious way forward. When will the Ukrainian leadership become serious about negotiations?

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/07/proxy-war-update-russia-targeting-u-s-military-equipment-arriving-in-ukraine-apparently-with-some-success/
  939. German_reader says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    Anatoly, I haven't addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn't begin to describe them. You're right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren't as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won't happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn't begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Sean, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look.

    Lol. You must be unfamiliar with Karlin’s work.

    • Agree: A123, Yellowface Anon
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  940. @Sean
    @Wokechoke


    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?
     
    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything.
    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,
    3. There are far more Ukrainian troops in Donbass than is being admitted and these include the crack professional units

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @A123

    I looked closely at the terrain topology elevations etc. Drying or dry ground favors the side with the vehicles for off road driving around here.

    The construction of the houses, depots, factories, the density of the population, industrial characteristics, hydrology. Why do you argue with a Strawman you have just built?

    • Replies: @Sean
    @Wokechoke

    Perhaps AOTBE. But they can surely go faster that the few kilometers a day they are managing currently even with the off road mud. I think the Russian generals are using the ground being too soft as an excuse, and they are not looking forward to rolling up to the Ukrainian positions

    It seems to me that at Kursk the Russian general persuaded Stalin to let the Germans attack. A defensive battle may well be the preference of the Russian generals at present. Artillery will be less effective against dug in defensive positions that waves of vehicles. Also


    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39841070/ukrainian-army-field-howitzers/ Another round likely winging its way to Ukraine is the UK/French BONUS artillery shell. BONUS was developed for one thing and one thing only: to kill tanks and other armored vehicles. BONUS, once fired from the muzzle of a howitzer, flies downrange and ejects two smart submunitions. The two submunitions use a multispectral sensor package to detect enemy armor across an area of up to 32,000 meters. Once an enemy tank or armored vehicle is detected, the submunition fires a self-forging warhead that lances down through the top of the vehicle, penetrating the thin armor and destroying it.
     
    think a Russian attack if pressed forward with determination will likely end in the Russians breaking and being routed.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  941. Sean says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    Anatoly, I haven't addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn't begin to describe them. You're right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren't as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won't happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn't begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Sean, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    Nukes are for existential risks

    I would say ICBMs with thermonuclear warhead are for retaliation from a strategic attack with the weapons already landing. The reason for not using a tactical nuke is it might lead to strategic nuke use. However that does not apply to Ukraine, which has no nukes of it own and not country willing to nuke Russia for them. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so the obligation to use any class of nukes to defend Ukraine does not exist. Nor would it be a reasonable option for America because its superiority on the nuclear plane is merely nominal.

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    Exactly, and in nuclear terms Russian is the little person who has the greater level of resolve to take a killing but not a beating and will reach into their pocket and pull out the Saturday night special. America will keep this conventional, if theUkrainian proxy does too well against Russia and it nukes the Ukrainian army, then America will not go nuclear at even the lowest tactical tit for tat level because that would be stepping into a realm where Russia goes from Goofy to Godzilla.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Correct. NATO doctrine was to tactically nuke the Russian tanks pouring through Kassel and the Fulda gap. That would signal either peace talks or mutual annihilation after various tactical counterstrikes culminating in outright strategic bombing. It was always a first strike doctrine if a conventional war lead to a zerg rush of Russian tanks into West Germany.

    More Gametheory than Existentialism.

  942. @216
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It would take no more than a single F-35 squadron to flip the script of this war.

    https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1522990411182407682?cxt=HHwWhIDU7bbt36IqAAAA

    It would help if someone posted the wreckage.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Anatoly Karlin

    Even a single spectacular Ukrainian tactical victory makes zero long-term difference, multiple such scenarios are inflicted on the Ukrainians in the Donbass – and in Kharkov, where Ukrainians chasing “retreating” Russian just got pulverized by artillery once out in the open.

    https://t.me/bograta/11263

    PS. Poland does harass its women with extreme anti-abortion law but it has no impact on its fertility rates, which are in fact lower than Russia’s as well as that of the great bulk of Eastern Europe. As a low IQ Western supremacist rightoid, it is not surprising you’re unaware of that.

    • Replies: @216
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Even a single spectacular Ukrainian tactical victory makes zero long-term difference, multiple such scenarios are inflicted on the Ukrainians in the Donbass – and in Kharkov, where Ukrainians chasing “retreating” Russian just got pulverized by artillery once out in the open.

     

    The US military got away with 20 years of deceiving the public on its wars, with much of its reputation still intact. We've been supposedly told that those Su-27s no longer even existed, but yet here they were to supposedly be shot down again.

    PS. Poland does harass its women with extreme anti-abortion law but it has no impact on its fertility rates, which are in fact lower than Russia’s as well as that of the great bulk of Eastern Europe. As a low IQ Western supremacist rightoid, it is not surprising you’re unaware of that.

     

    Wow, its almost like the European Union means that members aren't sovereign, and women can just drive over the border to get abortions. Which doesn't invalidate that the Polish laws are good. The problem is Brussels. If the European Right and the Russian Right had the courage of the US Right, then they too could get rid of abortion and rebalance their demographics.

    I'd rather be called low IQ every single day of the year, than be called a feminist.
  943. A123 says: • Website
    @Sean
    @Wokechoke


    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?
     
    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything.
    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,
    3. There are far more Ukrainian troops in Donbass than is being admitted and these include the crack professional units

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @A123

    Why do you think drying ground will favor the Ukies?

    1. They have longer range artillery better counter battery tech, lots of drones, and Excalibur shells; they are not going to run out of anything

    Not-The-President Biden has announced some massive funding numbers. After purchases are made from the U.S. Military Industrial Complex [MIC], how does the material reach the front lines? Ukraine is functionally land locked by Russia’s presence in the Black Sea.

    — Light items may be airlifted to Germany or Poland
    — Heavy items will spend at least 2 weeks on a freighter.

    The main resupply will be across the border with Poland at the extreme West of Ukraine. Lviv to Kiev is ~400 miles. After that it can be allocated to supply depots and be sent another ~200-300 miles before it reaches the rear echelons of the Ukrainian forces.

    There are any number of ways that Russian forces can interfere with replenishment. (1)

    It doesn’t sound like a very complex military strategy on the part of Russia actually. As the U.S. weapons convoys are pushed from Western Ukraine toward Eastern Ukraine (Donbas region) the Russians identify the locations and blow them up with cruise missiles.

    “Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday said it had destroyed a large stockpile of military equipment from the United States and European countries near the Bohodukhiv railway station in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. The ministry said it had hit 18 Ukrainian military facilities overnight, including three ammunition depots in Dachne, near the port city of Odesa.”

    France24 seems to confirm this report.

    Even if the incompetent Gen. SJW Milley manages to ship what is needed, chances of reliable resupply are slim.

    2. The terrain is not endless steppe, but more mixed and urbanized than is being said, and the Russians have not got good at that kind of infantry intensive fighting in a few weeks. Reservists will have low morale and be rusty,

    That is relevant to defense. However all of the Ukie Maximalists keep ducking the key question, “How will Ukrainian forces advance over open terrain to recapture Mariupol?”

    Ukraine could not exploit the soft target from Russia’s voluntary withdrawal around Kiev. What hope do they have against a much harder target like Mariupol?

    The situation continues to evolve towards a messy LOSE-LOSE scenario. Russia does poorly while Ukraine performs even worse. A negotiated armistice is the best obvious way forward. When will the Ukrainian leadership become serious about negotiations?

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/07/proxy-war-update-russia-targeting-u-s-military-equipment-arriving-in-ukraine-apparently-with-some-success/

  944. @Triteleia Laxa
    @awry

    Get a grip. I cannot think of a government that has ever been as liberal and tolerant while their cities are destroyed and people are murdered. Your carping hysteria is context-inappropriate. You stupid.

    E.g were I Ukrainian and in Kharkiv I would personally kick Gonzala Lira down the stairs before running down afterwards and stamping on his head, and I know that everyone deserves love and compassion.

    You see, although misused by psychopaths, there still actually is such a thing as asking for it, and living in Ukraine while the entire might of the Russian military is trying to obliterate it, and supporting such obliteration, is more than asking to get lynched, it is full-on begging for it.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @awry

    Wouldn’t you be fighting Russians in the front line of the suburbs instead of playing internet bloodsports though? I thought you claimed to have the equivalent of a Satrean-like conviction? The dilemma of folks who live in overrun towns is much more interesting. There was nothing good about the conduct of French resissytance fighters who shaved off the hair of local prostitutes who slept with Germans. These people could have escaped France and joined Le Clerk or De Gaulle. No need to knock your neighbors down the stairs.

    De Gaulle had the guts to follow his instincts and decamp to London liberal Frenchmen followed him. At least the Frenchmen who joined the SS tried to fight the USSR, followed up their ideology with conviction and got to the burbs of Moscow like proper warriors.

  945. Sean says:
    @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    I looked closely at the terrain topology elevations etc. Drying or dry ground favors the side with the vehicles for off road driving around here.

    The construction of the houses, depots, factories, the density of the population, industrial characteristics, hydrology. Why do you argue with a Strawman you have just built?

    Replies: @Sean

    Perhaps AOTBE. But they can surely go faster that the few kilometers a day they are managing currently even with the off road mud. I think the Russian generals are using the ground being too soft as an excuse, and they are not looking forward to rolling up to the Ukrainian positions

    It seems to me that at Kursk the Russian general persuaded Stalin to let the Germans attack. A defensive battle may well be the preference of the Russian generals at present. Artillery will be less effective against dug in defensive positions that waves of vehicles. Also

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39841070/ukrainian-army-field-howitzers/ Another round likely winging its way to Ukraine is the UK/French BONUS artillery shell. BONUS was developed for one thing and one thing only: to kill tanks and other armored vehicles. BONUS, once fired from the muzzle of a howitzer, flies downrange and ejects two smart submunitions. The two submunitions use a multispectral sensor package to detect enemy armor across an area of up to 32,000 meters. Once an enemy tank or armored vehicle is detected, the submunition fires a self-forging warhead that lances down through the top of the vehicle, penetrating the thin armor and destroying it.

    think a Russian attack if pressed forward with determination will likely end in the Russians breaking and being routed.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    I'm not sure the 177 howitzers will be all that useful in the battles to stop the 500 or so tanks the Russians have around Izyum. The Russians can rain down Iskander missiles with cluster bomb unit warheads from positions in Kursk onto individual m777 guns in Kharkov with reasonable accuracy. Does The Ukie military have cruise missiles?

    Muddy ground isn't just an excuse. It's a real issue in that region. Especially when the battlefield is flooded deliberately. Some of the immobility of the Ukies is the mud too.

  946. @Sean
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Nukes are for existential risks
     
    I would say ICBMs with thermonuclear warhead are for retaliation from a strategic attack with the weapons already landing. The reason for not using a tactical nuke is it might lead to strategic nuke use. However that does not apply to Ukraine, which has no nukes of it own and not country willing to nuke Russia for them. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so the obligation to use any class of nukes to defend Ukraine does not exist. Nor would it be a reasonable option for America because its superiority on the nuclear plane is merely nominal.

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.
     
    Exactly, and in nuclear terms Russian is the little person who has the greater level of resolve to take a killing but not a beating and will reach into their pocket and pull out the Saturday night special. America will keep this conventional, if theUkrainian proxy does too well against Russia and it nukes the Ukrainian army, then America will not go nuclear at even the lowest tactical tit for tat level because that would be stepping into a realm where Russia goes from Goofy to Godzilla.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Correct. NATO doctrine was to tactically nuke the Russian tanks pouring through Kassel and the Fulda gap. That would signal either peace talks or mutual annihilation after various tactical counterstrikes culminating in outright strategic bombing. It was always a first strike doctrine if a conventional war lead to a zerg rush of Russian tanks into West Germany.

    More Gametheory than Existentialism.

  947. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    Anatoly, I haven't addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn't begin to describe them. You're right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren't as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won't happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn't begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Sean, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    (1) Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine, they are only (probably) coming out to play if NATO intervenes openly and on a large scale.

    (2) The assessment of how the war is going, and by extension the likelihood of nukes usage, is made by Western Russophobes and most Western Russophiles on the basis of Onyx and Twitter BrOSINT, which explicitly shills for Ukraine. Meanwhile, many of those who posted inconvenient videos for the Ukrainians have simply been kicked off Twitter, and exist only on Telegram. Latest example: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1522633342738444289
    Happily for those who don’t want nuclear weapons usage, Ukraine’s peremogas are more PR than real.

    (3) Your democidal hatred against the Chinese (which you unconvincingly try to paper over) and bloodthirsty if impotent fantasies about stomping in Gonzalo’s head (spoiler: Unlikely to work, given you’re a middle-aged female wine alcoholic) betray a psyche at least as ruined if not more so than any of the other commenters here you love to psychoanalize. I would suggest cutting down on the drinking, and to reexamine your commitment to the Western Supremacist worldview more broadly.

    • Agree: Yevardian
    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine
     
    What's your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine's human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Wokechoke, @216, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Beckow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that's the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

    But you are wrong about Laxa, she needs to drink more not less. This is not easy, Laxa's psychotic hatred of "Russia!" is deep that as it increasingly collides with reality words won't suffice. I suspect she is one of the bitter emigres polluting the Western mental space with family misfortune and thirst for revenge - in other words, a female "utu" who has been entertaining us here for a while. They can't let go.

    Replies: @216

  948. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anatoly Karlin


    On a more general note, it seems this place has reached levels of hysteria previously thought unimaginable, now revolving around Russian usage of nukes in a context in which it is too risk-averse to even mobilize.
     
    Anatoly, I haven't addressed the other comments as they are either too depressing, or too personal and need some thought, but thank you for your intervention. These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn't begin to describe them. You're right. The simple fact is that the stakes for Russia are low and are extremely high for Ukraine, which is why Ukraine can win and why Russia will never use nukes. The stakes aren't as unequal as they were with America as regards the Taleban, but they are not a million miles off. This is also why Russia should go home, because Russia massively miscalculated the stakes for Ukraine

    Never get into a war without end against a little person who cares so much more than you.

    One day I really hope you, or another patriotic Russian, writes an honest essay about these useful idiots and how insane they look. I know it won't happen, but it would be hilarious. Cuck doesn't begin to describe them. Though they tend to split into the antisocial nihilist freak camp or the doormat camp. They confuse me so much. I blame Simonyan, and others, she is too impressive and crushworthy, so these lowq psychologically broken fools now march to a broken beat.

    I did watch one hysterical old blowhard on Russian tv talk about how no one would hate Russia for nuking Ukraine etc, but the presenter basically called him the most pathetic person in the world. Nukes are for existential risks, not glory. Or shame avoidance. Only tiny children and cluster B case studies would think otherwise.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Sean, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    I know nobody appreciates your wearisome spiel here except Mr. Hack, so it’s really a waste of time, but what actually said was that I don’t think Russia continuing the war at its current level of engagement is a good idea, it needs to go on total-war footing, especially if it wants to discourage/pre-empt Western military escalation.

    These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn’t begin to describe them.

    I did not advocate nukes, don’t be so blatantly dishonest. Are you aware your beloved Israel has a nuclear first policy? I think I’ve been as neutral as one can be in the circumstances, this is basically (another) ex-Sovok civil war, it was going to get exceptionally ugly very fast, so anyone wanting to lionise either side is going to end up lying pretty quickly. In as far as my concerns have been more Russia-orientated, that’s simply because Russia has a far larger population, a political system without clear rules of succession, with many mutually hostile peoples inside it, has nuclear weapons, and there’s already a precedent for a nuclear-state’s implosion.

    Most the former USSR’s ethnic republics had things much better Gorbachev screwed everything up, pretty much none of them came out better except arguably the Baltics, and they still got demographic collapse anyway.
    Anyway, there are conflicting ethnic interests even for a deracinated person like myself, if Russia collapses, Armenia is likely to be wiped off the map, it will be worse off than Russia itself, probably even Ukraine. utu hypothesised a world in which shared caucasian NATO membership would restrain conflict, but frankly Turkey practically acts as an independent actor these days, nor did it ever moderate their Kurdish policies. This also explains why Simonyan is such a hawk.

    Europe is a different matter, but the US and to a lesser extent the UK or France, are so far away and so secure, I think the ‘pro-Russian’ people simply see the conflict in terms that it’s not their business anymore. The US could withdraw entirely from foreign affairs and it would fine, that’s certainly not true for E. Europe.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Yevardian


    ...The US could withdraw entirely from foreign affairs and it would fine, that’s certainly not true for E. Europe.
     
    Precisely. Central-Eastern Europe is looking at very hard times - including most of non-Russian Ukraine. AP's mindless optimism notwithstanding, this large region only does well when there is peace and mutual trade between West and Russia. As borderland between two warring camps it stagnates or worse.

    Armenia is almost worse: its only realistic protection is from Russia, possibly Iran. Russia that is distracted or has no ability to help means further destruction.

    In Central Eastern Europe we benefit from the Western inventiveness-technology and access to the Russia's enormous natural wealth. When we are used as battlegrounds for others we suffer. One year of peace is usually worth ten years of war in terms of development. That includes Germany.

    We had a great 20-25 years of rapid development that suddenly ended in 2020 - first the stupid C19, then the even more stupid war. We were the go-to place for the remaining European traditional civilization and we mostly avoided the Western pathologies.

    All of that is being destroyed by a relatively small emotional group of purchased "warriors' (not just in Ukraine, we have them too), who are paid by Western interests. Or even worse, hope to be paid. A failure of character, not the first time in our history.

  949. German_reader says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    (1) Russia doesn't need nukes to win against Ukraine, they are only (probably) coming out to play if NATO intervenes openly and on a large scale.

    (2) The assessment of how the war is going, and by extension the likelihood of nukes usage, is made by Western Russophobes and most Western Russophiles on the basis of Onyx and Twitter BrOSINT, which explicitly shills for Ukraine. Meanwhile, many of those who posted inconvenient videos for the Ukrainians have simply been kicked off Twitter, and exist only on Telegram. Latest example: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1522633342738444289
    Happily for those who don't want nuclear weapons usage, Ukraine's peremogas are more PR than real.

    (3) Your democidal hatred against the Chinese (which you unconvincingly try to paper over) and bloodthirsty if impotent fantasies about stomping in Gonzalo's head (spoiler: Unlikely to work, given you're a middle-aged female wine alcoholic) betray a psyche at least as ruined if not more so than any of the other commenters here you love to psychoanalize. I would suggest cutting down on the drinking, and to reexamine your commitment to the Western Supremacist worldview more broadly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine

    What’s your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine’s human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @German_reader

    AK re-posted an image (on twitter, iirc) I'd seen elsewhere a while ago showing different maps for Loss, Phyrric Victory, Stalemate and so on, I think they were images practically everyone involved in the conflict could agree upon.

    I personally do not think the war is going well, though Russia is secure in at least scoring a phyrric victory, unless Western support ramps up radically.
    Perhaps Karlin could recommend some non-government sources confident everything's going to plan, which I doubt. The ones I mainly follow, Podolyaka, Colonel Kassad, Strelkov and Mikhail Onufrienko, some Armenoid stuff, certainly aren't so bullish, although Strelkov has gotten so negative and defeatist Solovey's accusation of him becoming a foreign asset almost doesn't look as utterly ridiculous as when he first said it.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Ukraine is economically ruined.

    Ukraine just turned itself into a mega Aldershot/Aberdeen proving ground.

    Test site for the Wunderwaffe of the West.

    They are ruined.

    , @216
    @German_reader

    NATO outnumbers Russia conventionally by a significant factor, and even if Turkey stayed neutral, the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty. And that's before we add the unknown quantity of America's new bomber and new rifle.

    Ukraine has very limited fast air and gunship support, neither side has APS on its tanks. Russians don't even have optics on their rifles. But we are already seeing the Western supremacy known as the M777 and its M982 rounds.

    Russia is fighting this war like if the US was fighting 1991 Iraq with the quantity of forces used against 2003 Iraq.

    War is the final argument of the kings, and if this war is truly an existential necessity to the survival of the Russian state, then surely Putin could have gotten troops and material sent from the CSTO states and China.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @German_reader

    I see no reason to revise this assessment, which remains indefinitely attainable so long as the attrition ratio favors Russia by 2-3:1 or more:


    Russia’s goals seem to be maximalist. It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia.
     
    I would agree that Donbass and Crimean Bridge, as Yevardian notes, is the minimum "Pyrrhic" victory condition. I don't think "drive Ukraine into ruin" is a realistic prospect with the amount of Western aid that is likely to be poured out into any future rump Ukrainian state, while the sanctions are to be indefinite. To some extent, Western policy has made Russia pot-committed to maximalism.

    Replies: @German_reader

  950. @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine
     
    What's your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine's human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Wokechoke, @216, @Anatoly Karlin

    AK re-posted an image (on twitter, iirc) I’d seen elsewhere a while ago showing different maps for Loss, Phyrric Victory, Stalemate and so on, I think they were images practically everyone involved in the conflict could agree upon.

    I personally do not think the war is going well, though Russia is secure in at least scoring a phyrric victory, unless Western support ramps up radically.
    Perhaps Karlin could recommend some non-government sources confident everything’s going to plan, which I doubt. The ones I mainly follow, Podolyaka, Colonel Kassad, Strelkov and Mikhail Onufrienko, some Armenoid stuff, certainly aren’t so bullish, although Strelkov has gotten so negative and defeatist Solovey’s accusation of him becoming a foreign asset almost doesn’t look as utterly ridiculous as when he first said it.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Solovey’s accusation of him becoming a foreign asset
     
    haha, sorry, that's pretty funny (as far as anything related to this stupid war can be funny).
    I don't have much of an opinion on the course of the war myself, though total victory of either side seems unlikely. But I don't see how Ukraine could evict Russia from the Black sea coast, and holding that territory allows Russia to put immense economic pressure on Ukraine. So the people who think this is going to end with a total Russian defeat are fantasists imo.
    Risk of nukes being used...imo could happen if Western intervention becomes even more direct, and I don't think that's inconceivable. Otherwise probably unlikely.

    Replies: @A123

  951. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @German_reader

    AK re-posted an image (on twitter, iirc) I'd seen elsewhere a while ago showing different maps for Loss, Phyrric Victory, Stalemate and so on, I think they were images practically everyone involved in the conflict could agree upon.

    I personally do not think the war is going well, though Russia is secure in at least scoring a phyrric victory, unless Western support ramps up radically.
    Perhaps Karlin could recommend some non-government sources confident everything's going to plan, which I doubt. The ones I mainly follow, Podolyaka, Colonel Kassad, Strelkov and Mikhail Onufrienko, some Armenoid stuff, certainly aren't so bullish, although Strelkov has gotten so negative and defeatist Solovey's accusation of him becoming a foreign asset almost doesn't look as utterly ridiculous as when he first said it.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Solovey’s accusation of him becoming a foreign asset

    haha, sorry, that’s pretty funny (as far as anything related to this stupid war can be funny).
    I don’t have much of an opinion on the course of the war myself, though total victory of either side seems unlikely. But I don’t see how Ukraine could evict Russia from the Black sea coast, and holding that territory allows Russia to put immense economic pressure on Ukraine. So the people who think this is going to end with a total Russian defeat are fantasists imo.
    Risk of nukes being used…imo could happen if Western intervention becomes even more direct, and I don’t think that’s inconceivable. Otherwise probably unlikely.

    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader


    I don’t see how Ukraine could evict Russia from the Black sea coast, and holding that territory allows Russia to put immense economic pressure on Ukraine. So the people who think this is going to end with a total Russian defeat are fantasists imo.

     

    Your conclusion is supported by objective evidence: (1)

    A massive backlog of grain shipments is piling up in Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tonnes due to 'infrastructure challenges' and blocked ports in the Black Sea, including Mariupol, Reuters reports, citing a UN food agency official.'
    ...
    grain that could be exported but that cannot leave the country simply because of lack of infrastructure, the blockade of the ports," said FAO Deputy Director Josef Schmidhuber during a Geneva press briefing via Zoom.

    According to Schmidhuber, the full silos could result in storage shortages for this year's July and August harvests.

    "Despite the war the harvest conditions don’t look that dire. That could really mean there's not enough storage capacity in Ukraine, particularly if there's no wheat corridor opening up for export from Ukraine."
     
    Rail cars are much more expensive than sea going freighters. Worse yet for Ukraine, rail connected countries, such as Poland and the rest of the EU, are self sufficient for grains. The export markets that Ukraine needs are MENA countries to the South.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ukraine-grain-strain-almost-25-million-tonnes-blocked-export
  952. @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine
     
    What's your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine's human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Wokechoke, @216, @Anatoly Karlin

    Ukraine is economically ruined.

    Ukraine just turned itself into a mega Aldershot/Aberdeen proving ground.

    Test site for the Wunderwaffe of the West.

    They are ruined.

  953. 216 says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @216

    Even a single spectacular Ukrainian tactical victory makes zero long-term difference, multiple such scenarios are inflicted on the Ukrainians in the Donbass - and in Kharkov, where Ukrainians chasing "retreating" Russian just got pulverized by artillery once out in the open.

    https://t.me/bograta/11263

    PS. Poland does harass its women with extreme anti-abortion law but it has no impact on its fertility rates, which are in fact lower than Russia's as well as that of the great bulk of Eastern Europe. As a low IQ Western supremacist rightoid, it is not surprising you're unaware of that.

    Replies: @216

    Even a single spectacular Ukrainian tactical victory makes zero long-term difference, multiple such scenarios are inflicted on the Ukrainians in the Donbass – and in Kharkov, where Ukrainians chasing “retreating” Russian just got pulverized by artillery once out in the open.

    The US military got away with 20 years of deceiving the public on its wars, with much of its reputation still intact. We’ve been supposedly told that those Su-27s no longer even existed, but yet here they were to supposedly be shot down again.

    PS. Poland does harass its women with extreme anti-abortion law but it has no impact on its fertility rates, which are in fact lower than Russia’s as well as that of the great bulk of Eastern Europe. As a low IQ Western supremacist rightoid, it is not surprising you’re unaware of that.

    Wow, its almost like the European Union means that members aren’t sovereign, and women can just drive over the border to get abortions. Which doesn’t invalidate that the Polish laws are good. The problem is Brussels. If the European Right and the Russian Right had the courage of the US Right, then they too could get rid of abortion and rebalance their demographics.

    I’d rather be called low IQ every single day of the year, than be called a feminist.

  954. A123 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Solovey’s accusation of him becoming a foreign asset
     
    haha, sorry, that's pretty funny (as far as anything related to this stupid war can be funny).
    I don't have much of an opinion on the course of the war myself, though total victory of either side seems unlikely. But I don't see how Ukraine could evict Russia from the Black sea coast, and holding that territory allows Russia to put immense economic pressure on Ukraine. So the people who think this is going to end with a total Russian defeat are fantasists imo.
    Risk of nukes being used...imo could happen if Western intervention becomes even more direct, and I don't think that's inconceivable. Otherwise probably unlikely.

    Replies: @A123

    I don’t see how Ukraine could evict Russia from the Black sea coast, and holding that territory allows Russia to put immense economic pressure on Ukraine. So the people who think this is going to end with a total Russian defeat are fantasists imo.

    Your conclusion is supported by objective evidence: (1)

    A massive backlog of grain shipments is piling up in Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tonnes due to ‘infrastructure challenges’ and blocked ports in the Black Sea, including Mariupol, Reuters reports, citing a UN food agency official.’

    grain that could be exported but that cannot leave the country simply because of lack of infrastructure, the blockade of the ports,” said FAO Deputy Director Josef Schmidhuber during a Geneva press briefing via Zoom.

    According to Schmidhuber, the full silos could result in storage shortages for this year’s July and August harvests.

    “Despite the war the harvest conditions don’t look that dire. That could really mean there’s not enough storage capacity in Ukraine, particularly if there’s no wheat corridor opening up for export from Ukraine.”

    Rail cars are much more expensive than sea going freighters. Worse yet for Ukraine, rail connected countries, such as Poland and the rest of the EU, are self sufficient for grains. The export markets that Ukraine needs are MENA countries to the South.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ukraine-grain-strain-almost-25-million-tonnes-blocked-export

  955. @Yevardian
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I know nobody appreciates your wearisome spiel here except Mr. Hack, so it's really a waste of time, but what actually said was that I don't think Russia continuing the war at its current level of engagement is a good idea, it needs to go on total-war footing, especially if it wants to discourage/pre-empt Western military escalation.


    These non-Russian, yet somehow deranged shills, for Russia, keep trying to make nukes sound like the reasonable option for Russia. Psychotic doesn’t begin to describe them.
     
    I did not advocate nukes, don't be so blatantly dishonest. Are you aware your beloved Israel has a nuclear first policy? I think I've been as neutral as one can be in the circumstances, this is basically (another) ex-Sovok civil war, it was going to get exceptionally ugly very fast, so anyone wanting to lionise either side is going to end up lying pretty quickly. In as far as my concerns have been more Russia-orientated, that's simply because Russia has a far larger population, a political system without clear rules of succession, with many mutually hostile peoples inside it, has nuclear weapons, and there's already a precedent for a nuclear-state's implosion.

    Most the former USSR's ethnic republics had things much better Gorbachev screwed everything up, pretty much none of them came out better except arguably the Baltics, and they still got demographic collapse anyway.
    Anyway, there are conflicting ethnic interests even for a deracinated person like myself, if Russia collapses, Armenia is likely to be wiped off the map, it will be worse off than Russia itself, probably even Ukraine. utu hypothesised a world in which shared caucasian NATO membership would restrain conflict, but frankly Turkey practically acts as an independent actor these days, nor did it ever moderate their Kurdish policies. This also explains why Simonyan is such a hawk.

    Europe is a different matter, but the US and to a lesser extent the UK or France, are so far away and so secure, I think the 'pro-Russian' people simply see the conflict in terms that it's not their business anymore. The US could withdraw entirely from foreign affairs and it would fine, that's certainly not true for E. Europe.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …The US could withdraw entirely from foreign affairs and it would fine, that’s certainly not true for E. Europe.

    Precisely. Central-Eastern Europe is looking at very hard times – including most of non-Russian Ukraine. AP’s mindless optimism notwithstanding, this large region only does well when there is peace and mutual trade between West and Russia. As borderland between two warring camps it stagnates or worse.

    Armenia is almost worse: its only realistic protection is from Russia, possibly Iran. Russia that is distracted or has no ability to help means further destruction.

    In Central Eastern Europe we benefit from the Western inventiveness-technology and access to the Russia’s enormous natural wealth. When we are used as battlegrounds for others we suffer. One year of peace is usually worth ten years of war in terms of development. That includes Germany.

    We had a great 20-25 years of rapid development that suddenly ended in 2020 – first the stupid C19, then the even more stupid war. We were the go-to place for the remaining European traditional civilization and we mostly avoided the Western pathologies.

    All of that is being destroyed by a relatively small emotional group of purchased “warriors’ (not just in Ukraine, we have them too), who are paid by Western interests. Or even worse, hope to be paid. A failure of character, not the first time in our history.

  956. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    (1) Russia doesn't need nukes to win against Ukraine, they are only (probably) coming out to play if NATO intervenes openly and on a large scale.

    (2) The assessment of how the war is going, and by extension the likelihood of nukes usage, is made by Western Russophobes and most Western Russophiles on the basis of Onyx and Twitter BrOSINT, which explicitly shills for Ukraine. Meanwhile, many of those who posted inconvenient videos for the Ukrainians have simply been kicked off Twitter, and exist only on Telegram. Latest example: https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1522633342738444289
    Happily for those who don't want nuclear weapons usage, Ukraine's peremogas are more PR than real.

    (3) Your democidal hatred against the Chinese (which you unconvincingly try to paper over) and bloodthirsty if impotent fantasies about stomping in Gonzalo's head (spoiler: Unlikely to work, given you're a middle-aged female wine alcoholic) betray a psyche at least as ruined if not more so than any of the other commenters here you love to psychoanalize. I would suggest cutting down on the drinking, and to reexamine your commitment to the Western Supremacist worldview more broadly.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Beckow

    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that’s the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

    But you are wrong about Laxa, she needs to drink more not less. This is not easy, Laxa‘s psychotic hatred of “Russia!” is deep that as it increasingly collides with reality words won’t suffice. I suspect she is one of the bitter emigres polluting the Western mental space with family misfortune and thirst for revenge – in other words, a female “utu” who has been entertaining us here for a while. They can’t let go.

    • Replies: @216
    @Beckow


    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that’s the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

     

    That's not how democracy works. When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out. Something that has literally never happened in Russia.

    Western leaders and populations fundamentally lack courage. Their culture is controlled by a hostile elite. But when they are inspired, they can do amazing things, it is not "might makes right" but it is "right which makes might". All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.

    Replies: @Beckow

  957. 216 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine
     
    What's your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine's human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Wokechoke, @216, @Anatoly Karlin

    NATO outnumbers Russia conventionally by a significant factor, and even if Turkey stayed neutral, the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty. And that’s before we add the unknown quantity of America’s new bomber and new rifle.

    Ukraine has very limited fast air and gunship support, neither side has APS on its tanks. Russians don’t even have optics on their rifles. But we are already seeing the Western supremacy known as the M777 and its M982 rounds.

    Russia is fighting this war like if the US was fighting 1991 Iraq with the quantity of forces used against 2003 Iraq.

    War is the final argument of the kings, and if this war is truly an existential necessity to the survival of the Russian state, then surely Putin could have gotten troops and material sent from the CSTO states and China.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @216

    Artillery is the final argument of kings. I think that is the phrase.

    , @German_reader
    @216


    the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty.
     
    If NATO entered the war directly and in full force, to inflict a humiliating defeat on Russia, why wouldn't Putin drop a small nuke on a NATO base in Poland, as a warning? And then what?
    You seem pretty wedded to the idea of shoring up American prestige through intervention abroad. Maybe a focus on concerns at home would be more appropriate...banning BLM and trannies would be a good start.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

  958. @216
    @German_reader

    NATO outnumbers Russia conventionally by a significant factor, and even if Turkey stayed neutral, the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty. And that's before we add the unknown quantity of America's new bomber and new rifle.

    Ukraine has very limited fast air and gunship support, neither side has APS on its tanks. Russians don't even have optics on their rifles. But we are already seeing the Western supremacy known as the M777 and its M982 rounds.

    Russia is fighting this war like if the US was fighting 1991 Iraq with the quantity of forces used against 2003 Iraq.

    War is the final argument of the kings, and if this war is truly an existential necessity to the survival of the Russian state, then surely Putin could have gotten troops and material sent from the CSTO states and China.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader

    Artillery is the final argument of kings. I think that is the phrase.

  959. German_reader says:
    @216
    @German_reader

    NATO outnumbers Russia conventionally by a significant factor, and even if Turkey stayed neutral, the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty. And that's before we add the unknown quantity of America's new bomber and new rifle.

    Ukraine has very limited fast air and gunship support, neither side has APS on its tanks. Russians don't even have optics on their rifles. But we are already seeing the Western supremacy known as the M777 and its M982 rounds.

    Russia is fighting this war like if the US was fighting 1991 Iraq with the quantity of forces used against 2003 Iraq.

    War is the final argument of the kings, and if this war is truly an existential necessity to the survival of the Russian state, then surely Putin could have gotten troops and material sent from the CSTO states and China.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @German_reader

    the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty.

    If NATO entered the war directly and in full force, to inflict a humiliating defeat on Russia, why wouldn’t Putin drop a small nuke on a NATO base in Poland, as a warning? And then what?
    You seem pretty wedded to the idea of shoring up American prestige through intervention abroad. Maybe a focus on concerns at home would be more appropriate…banning BLM and trannies would be a good start.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    ffs he'd rain missiles down on London first. Might pick off a few oligarchs that way.

    , @216
    @German_reader

    In the last days of the first Trump Administration, the military carried out a de-facto coup, I predict that something similar would occur if Putin authorized the deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon. Using a tactical nuke would also rally all the NATO members behind the US, when otherwise some might stay neutral.

    Trump tried to act domestically, but IIRC it was the EU which wouldn't join in the tariffs against China (so much for being vassals of the American Empire).

    And it was the US Right, using the democratic process, which will soon get rid of abortion. Meanwhile Brussels is demanding to force abortion on Poland/Malta.

    Amazing that some would think nothing of invading Ukraine, but draw the line at "harassing women".

    There is no logic, only liberalism.

  960. 216 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that's the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

    But you are wrong about Laxa, she needs to drink more not less. This is not easy, Laxa's psychotic hatred of "Russia!" is deep that as it increasingly collides with reality words won't suffice. I suspect she is one of the bitter emigres polluting the Western mental space with family misfortune and thirst for revenge - in other words, a female "utu" who has been entertaining us here for a while. They can't let go.

    Replies: @216

    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that’s the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

    That’s not how democracy works. When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out. Something that has literally never happened in Russia.

    Western leaders and populations fundamentally lack courage. Their culture is controlled by a hostile elite. But when they are inspired, they can do amazing things, it is not “might makes right” but it is “right which makes might”. All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @216


    When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out.
     
    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn't get much of a chance to "vote them out". You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the "hostile elite".

    It is also an oxymoron to claim "this is how democracy works" and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.


    All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.
     
    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

    Replies: @216

  961. @German_reader
    @216


    the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty.
     
    If NATO entered the war directly and in full force, to inflict a humiliating defeat on Russia, why wouldn't Putin drop a small nuke on a NATO base in Poland, as a warning? And then what?
    You seem pretty wedded to the idea of shoring up American prestige through intervention abroad. Maybe a focus on concerns at home would be more appropriate...banning BLM and trannies would be a good start.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

    ffs he’d rain missiles down on London first. Might pick off a few oligarchs that way.

  962. @Sean
    @Wokechoke

    Perhaps AOTBE. But they can surely go faster that the few kilometers a day they are managing currently even with the off road mud. I think the Russian generals are using the ground being too soft as an excuse, and they are not looking forward to rolling up to the Ukrainian positions

    It seems to me that at Kursk the Russian general persuaded Stalin to let the Germans attack. A defensive battle may well be the preference of the Russian generals at present. Artillery will be less effective against dug in defensive positions that waves of vehicles. Also


    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39841070/ukrainian-army-field-howitzers/ Another round likely winging its way to Ukraine is the UK/French BONUS artillery shell. BONUS was developed for one thing and one thing only: to kill tanks and other armored vehicles. BONUS, once fired from the muzzle of a howitzer, flies downrange and ejects two smart submunitions. The two submunitions use a multispectral sensor package to detect enemy armor across an area of up to 32,000 meters. Once an enemy tank or armored vehicle is detected, the submunition fires a self-forging warhead that lances down through the top of the vehicle, penetrating the thin armor and destroying it.
     
    think a Russian attack if pressed forward with determination will likely end in the Russians breaking and being routed.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    I’m not sure the 177 howitzers will be all that useful in the battles to stop the 500 or so tanks the Russians have around Izyum. The Russians can rain down Iskander missiles with cluster bomb unit warheads from positions in Kursk onto individual m777 guns in Kharkov with reasonable accuracy. Does The Ukie military have cruise missiles?

    Muddy ground isn’t just an excuse. It’s a real issue in that region. Especially when the battlefield is flooded deliberately. Some of the immobility of the Ukies is the mud too.

  963. Take that Klitshko

    Of course, Bilov should’ve officially competed under the Russian flag and anthem.

    https://www.rt.com/sport/555146-boxing-bivol-stuns-canelo/

    https://www.rt.com/sport/555080-boxing-bivol-klitshko-ban/

    Using K’s “logic”, Ukrainians not condemning the corrupt, undemocratic, neo-Nazi influenced, warring over Donbass (for the past eight years) Kiev regime should be banned – once again noting the non-bans of Americans and Israelis, when their respective nation engaged in war killing civilians.

    As noted, Sergey Lavrov hasn’t exhibited bigotry like Thomas Bach, Sally Jenkins, Wayne Gretzky and Sebastian Coe.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04052022-sergey-lavrovs-comments-about-jews-oped/

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    Wimbledon has banned Medvedev from the tournament. So far the only men's player (I have seen) who has criticized this is the vaccine renegade Djokovic.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  964. 216 says: • Website
    @German_reader
    @216


    the US/EU could reconquer the occupied territories with minor difficulty.
     
    If NATO entered the war directly and in full force, to inflict a humiliating defeat on Russia, why wouldn't Putin drop a small nuke on a NATO base in Poland, as a warning? And then what?
    You seem pretty wedded to the idea of shoring up American prestige through intervention abroad. Maybe a focus on concerns at home would be more appropriate...banning BLM and trannies would be a good start.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @216

    In the last days of the first Trump Administration, the military carried out a de-facto coup, I predict that something similar would occur if Putin authorized the deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon. Using a tactical nuke would also rally all the NATO members behind the US, when otherwise some might stay neutral.

    Trump tried to act domestically, but IIRC it was the EU which wouldn’t join in the tariffs against China (so much for being vassals of the American Empire).

    And it was the US Right, using the democratic process, which will soon get rid of abortion. Meanwhile Brussels is demanding to force abortion on Poland/Malta.

    Amazing that some would think nothing of invading Ukraine, but draw the line at “harassing women”.

    There is no logic, only liberalism.

  965. @Mikhail
    Take that Klitshko

    Of course, Bilov should've officially competed under the Russian flag and anthem.

    https://www.rt.com/sport/555146-boxing-bivol-stuns-canelo/

    https://www.rt.com/sport/555080-boxing-bivol-klitshko-ban/

    Using K's "logic", Ukrainians not condemning the corrupt, undemocratic, neo-Nazi influenced, warring over Donbass (for the past eight years) Kiev regime should be banned - once again noting the non-bans of Americans and Israelis, when their respective nation engaged in war killing civilians.

    As noted, Sergey Lavrov hasn't exhibited bigotry like Thomas Bach, Sally Jenkins, Wayne Gretzky and Sebastian Coe.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/04052022-sergey-lavrovs-comments-about-jews-oped/

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Wimbledon has banned Medvedev from the tournament. So far the only men’s player (I have seen) who has criticized this is the vaccine renegade Djokovic.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Billy Jean King, Nadal and Navratilova as well.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  966. @sudden death
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Great historical pic from Japanese(?) Wiki, which quite luminously illustrates how earlier Russian gunboat diplomacy started than Western one in Far East:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Rezanov_and_his_ship.jpg

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Yes, the scribing is in Japanese kanji and is about the distance of trip the Russians made. Here is another one (not only the height but head size diffreential!):https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golovnin_Incident

    In meantime a conceptual sketch by Japanese media of 北海道决战 “Hokkaidō Decisive Battle” 80,000 RF vs. 30,000 Japan–

    • Thanks: sudden death
  967. @216
    @Beckow


    Supremacists never reexamine their worldview, that’s the whole point of being a Supremacist. That fact is the biggest danger today: the inability of rulers in the West to step back and think, their inability after all the propaganda to rationally return to a compromise.

     

    That's not how democracy works. When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out. Something that has literally never happened in Russia.

    Western leaders and populations fundamentally lack courage. Their culture is controlled by a hostile elite. But when they are inspired, they can do amazing things, it is not "might makes right" but it is "right which makes might". All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.

    Replies: @Beckow

    When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out.

    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn’t get much of a chance to “vote them out”. You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the “hostile elite”.

    It is also an oxymoron to claim “this is how democracy works” and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.

    All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.

    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

    • Replies: @216
    @Beckow


    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn’t get much of a chance to “vote them out”. You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the “hostile elite”.

    It is also an oxymoron to claim “this is how democracy works” and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.
     
    Americans are taught in school that there are three branches of government. That is false, there are five. The media and academia represent the other two, and they are fully controlled by the left.

    Macron was regretfully elected legitimately, but it should be noted that Le Pen was repulsive to the fragment of the French population which are church-attending Boomers. In the US these are the most conservative people (though the most loyal Dems if black, though also the most conservative Dems).

    Nationalists supported the Conservatives in 2019, the UK has not had another election yet. Far-right parties in the UK are moribund and repulsive to normal people. They are also heavily infiltrated by MI5.

    Biden was not legitimately elected, the legitimate President is Donald Trump. A large GOP majority is coming in November, bigger than any Dem fraud.

    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

     

    Many Americans are unaware of it, but I am grateful for Russia's assistance to the Union during our Civil War. America sent tremendous material support to Russia during both World Wars, which tankies refuse to recognize (for it would force them to admit Stalin's brutality and incompetence). And most importantly America, and specifically the US Right, freed Russia from communism; against those who wanted accommodation with the USSR.

    Imagine a West where abortion is banned, divorce is a scandal, large majorities of the population attend church services weekly, immigration is low, everyone is forced to assimilate to White social norms, obesity is non-existent and everyone gets an M1 Garand issued to them by the government.

    That's not a fantasy, that was America before the 1960s disaster. And its not Russia in 2022.

    Replies: @sher singh

  968. @Wokechoke
    @Philip Owen

    British treatment of the Indians was paternalistic and legalistic but the American treatment was as you pointed out genocidal. In the declaration the Americans accuse the motherland of raising Indian tribes against white colonists.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    There is still a lot of nuance, even with the American settlers. I was surprised to read some time ago that after the Revolutionary War there the beginnings of a government push to inoculate the Indians for smallpox, since so many were dying of it. That idea was pretty well hamstrung by chronic lack of finances and the War of 1812.

    It does however show at least some paternalistic concern from some of the higher class Americans.

    As Westward expansion became an increasing pressure through the 1800’s I would say the American government’s official position became increasingly and unequivocally genocidal.

    • Replies: @216
    @Barbarossa

    Barbarians have no rights to object to industrialization. Settler colonialism was and is good, and this principle shall not be questioned.

    Anyone who wanted was and is allowed to assimilate, but then and now they are cast out as traitors by their own people.

    Any accusation of genocide is a clearly aimed threat at the ability of conservative white Americans like me to exercise Self-Determination. And no moral preening by Europeans will save them from the same demands by the Third World to engage in revenge colonialism.

    That said, the extermination of the bison was deplorable; as is the failure of the US Government to stop the drugs flooding into reservations. It is perfectly fair to support restoring the bison, but any indigenists movements are treason.

    Replies: @sher singh

  969. @AP
    @Sean


    Ukraine had been a Nato partner sine 1997 and there was an annual ‘ Sea Breeze’ which was a virtual Nato exercise held in Ukraine with Nato members forces including the US Marinea on the soil of Crimea
     
    Ukraine wanting to join NATO is not the same as Ukraine actually joining NATO. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. And joining NATO, not military exercises, was the stated reason to invade. It was a fake reason.

    The president at that time, Kuchma resigned to avoid prosecution for murder of a journalist, which soured relations with Nato.
     
    Kuchma never resigned from the presidency. His courts cleared him personally of wrongdoing.

    In 2004, the Ukrainian electorate voted in , Yanukovych, an ethnic Russian as President but he was prevented from taking office
     
    That's the one where Yanukovich, Kuchma's designated heir, had 98.5% turnout in districts controlled by his political machine. One district even had 127% turnout. You think that was realistic? OSCE confirmed that election as fraudulent.

    Yanukovich won fairly in 2010 but not in 2004.

    It is important to remember that in 2010 Yanukovych was–in an election all admit was fair– again elected to the Presidency
     
    It's also important to note that after Yanukovch won fairly, he extra-legally usurped power over the courts and over the parliament which had been elected as an Orange parliament but was transformed through pressure by Yanukovich who controlled the prosecutor's office and forced mps to switch sides. He then changed the election laws to give himself a parliamentary majority after the 2012 elections despite the Opposition winning the popular vote in that election. So yes, he (barely) won the presidency legitimately and democratically but his total control over the courts and over the parliament were neither legitimate nor democratic.

    As already mentioned above, the Ukrainia’s electorate voted in Yushchenko, an ethnic Russian, as President in 2004
     
    You confused Yushchenko and Yanukovich and the election which was run by Kuchma was fraudulent. The election was re-run and Yanukovich lost.

    in 2014 was an expensive one for Russia and the reaction to this peaceful and costly gambit means was, the integral nationalist Poroshenko (stop me it you have heard this before) again overthrew the ethnic Russian president of Ukraine, this time by utilising far rightist elements in a demonstration that got out of hand and led to many deaths and Yushchenko to flee the country
     
    You have now twice confused Yanukovich and Yushchenko which suggests that you don't really know who those people are.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power. He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time. He was overthrown in mass protests with the result that the winners of the popular vote in the 2012 parliamentary election came to power. Crimea and urban Donbas left Ukraine, and with the loss of that electorate pro-Russian parties lost any chance of ever again winning a national election in Ukraine.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Barbarossa

    Out of curiosity, if NATO would take a useless liability of a country like Montenegro, what makes you think Ukraine joining was out of the question? Sure there was opposition to such a move, but I see no reason to say that it was out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Barbarossa

    Ukraine in NATO is a sine qua non of this war. AP knows that admitting it would undermine his black-and-white narrative. So he and his ilk will stubbornly deny the obvious reality.

    AP is not bothered by the complete idiocy of claiming that "Donbas autonomy would block membership in NATO" and at the same time saying there was not going to be NATO in Ukraine. This is ideology on steroids - to them the end justifies the means, so they lie.

    Replies: @AP

    , @AP
    @Barbarossa

    Germany and France didn’t want to antagonise Russia. And ongoing territorial disputes prevent NATO accession. So Ukraine could even place NATO into it’s constitution and Germany can be polite and say Ukraine is in a plan to eventually join but this did not make joining possible. And I think Sean was correct when he wrote that the Georgian war really spooked several NATO members; this no doubt solidified their opposition to Ukraine joining NATO.

    So as of February 2022, when Russia invaded, there was zero chance of Ukraine joining NATO.

    Replies: @Beckow

  970. 216 says: • Website
    @Barbarossa
    @Wokechoke

    There is still a lot of nuance, even with the American settlers. I was surprised to read some time ago that after the Revolutionary War there the beginnings of a government push to inoculate the Indians for smallpox, since so many were dying of it. That idea was pretty well hamstrung by chronic lack of finances and the War of 1812.

    It does however show at least some paternalistic concern from some of the higher class Americans.

    As Westward expansion became an increasing pressure through the 1800's I would say the American government's official position became increasingly and unequivocally genocidal.

    Replies: @216

    Barbarians have no rights to object to industrialization. Settler colonialism was and is good, and this principle shall not be questioned.

    Anyone who wanted was and is allowed to assimilate, but then and now they are cast out as traitors by their own people.

    Any accusation of genocide is a clearly aimed threat at the ability of conservative white Americans like me to exercise Self-Determination. And no moral preening by Europeans will save them from the same demands by the Third World to engage in revenge colonialism.

    That said, the extermination of the bison was deplorable; as is the failure of the US Government to stop the drugs flooding into reservations. It is perfectly fair to support restoring the bison, but any indigenists movements are treason.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @216

    Yes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBhSjF5h7uk

  971. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    Ireland is a small member of the EU. It is not a sovereign nation. Some Irish people in Northern Ireland want to join up with the EU.

    Britain must suck pretty bad is all I can imagine.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird

    Some people view Ireland as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for a woke thrust into Europe.

    I wonder whether it should be considered an American one or an EU one. I don’t know myself.

  972. 216 says: • Website
    @Beckow
    @216


    When leaders fail, they and their party are voted out.
     
    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn't get much of a chance to "vote them out". You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the "hostile elite".

    It is also an oxymoron to claim "this is how democracy works" and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.


    All the West needs to do is return to its traditional values.
     
    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

    Replies: @216

    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn’t get much of a chance to “vote them out”. You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the “hostile elite”.

    It is also an oxymoron to claim “this is how democracy works” and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.

    Americans are taught in school that there are three branches of government. That is false, there are five. The media and academia represent the other two, and they are fully controlled by the left.

    Macron was regretfully elected legitimately, but it should be noted that Le Pen was repulsive to the fragment of the French population which are church-attending Boomers. In the US these are the most conservative people (though the most loyal Dems if black, though also the most conservative Dems).

    Nationalists supported the Conservatives in 2019, the UK has not had another election yet. Far-right parties in the UK are moribund and repulsive to normal people. They are also heavily infiltrated by MI5.

    Biden was not legitimately elected, the legitimate President is Donald Trump. A large GOP majority is coming in November, bigger than any Dem fraud.

    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

    Many Americans are unaware of it, but I am grateful for Russia’s assistance to the Union during our Civil War. America sent tremendous material support to Russia during both World Wars, which tankies refuse to recognize (for it would force them to admit Stalin’s brutality and incompetence). And most importantly America, and specifically the US Right, freed Russia from communism; against those who wanted accommodation with the USSR.

    Imagine a West where abortion is banned, divorce is a scandal, large majorities of the population attend church services weekly, immigration is low, everyone is forced to assimilate to White social norms, obesity is non-existent and everyone gets an M1 Garand issued to them by the government.

    That’s not a fantasy, that was America before the 1960s disaster. And its not Russia in 2022.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @216

    Ooga booga white man. Silvio why wouldn't any decent man be against trash like this?
    This is the target of anti-white poasting, it triggers them. 216, you can barely preserve let alone re-take

    Whites hates blacks as do Asians & Hispanics. As the latter move in, white attitudes soften.
    Imagine a west where people like you stfu & are banned on account of circumcision.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  973. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    Wimbledon has banned Medvedev from the tournament. So far the only men's player (I have seen) who has criticized this is the vaccine renegade Djokovic.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Billy Jean King, Nadal and Navratilova as well.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    Good on Nadal. He was very gracious to Alcatraz in Madrid yesterday. I wonder if the young fellow knows Nadal is just getting warmed up for Paris?

    Navratilova has become quite the elder states-woman. She was very unpopular when she was pummeling Chris Evert back in the day and people called her a dyke and an XXY and all kind of stuff.

    She also has said shemales should not be allowed in women's competition and her name is now mud again. When she visited my city she had a personal entourage of the three most lipstick-y lesbians you ever saw in your life. You could have swapped her out and swapped Leonardo de Caprio right in.

  974. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @AP


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.
     
    That is a bold-faced lie. Ukraine was officially told in 2008 at a Nato summit that it will join Nato. The statement was annually repeated. It was the official position of US the Nato decision maker. In 2019 it was added to the Ukrainian Constitution: Ukraine will join Nato. The exercises, training, planning for bases, weapons... all of that was taking place for years. It was public and nobody in the West ever denied it - they only said "when Ukraine is ready". The German-French position was not "no", but "not yet".

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about. You basically lying about it amounts to a desperate attempt to rewrite not even the present. At least have the integrity to admit it. You are pushing a lie because you were caught doing something that you don't like to admit.

    Your argumentation is childishly flawed with endless "barely won" and denying the obvious like the Ukie constitution and Nato annual statements. Go back to your usual obsessive cherry-picking, there is value and information in it. But denying the nose between your eyes because you were not caught fully red handed like with Nato in Ukraine is very sad. Admit it: Ukraine and Nato had a plan and it was blown up by Russia. Now Ukraine is suffering.

    Replies: @216, @AP

    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.

    That is a bold-faced lie

    The only one who lies here is you. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution does not mean it will be allowed to join, it’s not up to Ukraine. Germany blocked NATO membership for Ukraine even back in 2008. Hungary promised (and did) to veto all NATO integration efforts, probably on behalf of Germany, with Hungarian language laws as an excuse.

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about

    Again, it was not about NATO because NATO was not an option for Ukraine. It was about ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and reuniting “Russian” lands.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    You are squealing like a pig because you got caught. Constitution? right, that's nothing, who cares. Or that Orban was going to "block it". Really? Very unlikely, and what if Orban lost an election?

    NATO said it every single year since 2008. In NATO annual statements it is black on white 14 times: Ukraine will be in NATO.

    You are hopelessly confused. At least get your lying stories straight, this is very amateurish.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP


    Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution...
     
    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one's nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn't such a high IQ idea...

    But happily for the Russian World and global border aesthetics alike, Ukraine did just about everything possible including piracy and attempted hijackings to provoke its own current misfortunes. As Putin and others including myself have repeatedly stated, Russia as a self-respecting Great Power has no obligation to tolerate the existence of an Anti-Russia - an extremist state that makes svidomism the basis of its identity - on its borders.

    Good general lesson here on the wisdom of small svidomist statelets such as Taiwan staying in their own lane, though if anything, this is radicalizing them instead.

    Replies: @awry, @AP

  975. @Barbarossa
    @AP

    Out of curiosity, if NATO would take a useless liability of a country like Montenegro, what makes you think Ukraine joining was out of the question? Sure there was opposition to such a move, but I see no reason to say that it was out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

    Ukraine in NATO is a sine qua non of this war. AP knows that admitting it would undermine his black-and-white narrative. So he and his ilk will stubbornly deny the obvious reality.

    AP is not bothered by the complete idiocy of claiming that “Donbas autonomy would block membership in NATO” and at the same time saying there was not going to be NATO in Ukraine. This is ideology on steroids – to them the end justifies the means, so they lie.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    Ukraine in NATO is a sine qua non of this war
     
    It's a nonsensical excuse by Putin, like fighting a Nazi state.

    AP is not bothered by the complete idiocy of claiming that “Donbas autonomy would block membership in NATO” and at the same time saying there was not going to be NATO in Ukraine
     
    I was saying that Donbas autonomy would block EU membership for Ukraine, which is the most important thing because chances of NATO membership weren't real.
  976. @AP
    @Beckow


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.

    That is a bold-faced lie
     
    The only one who lies here is you. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution does not mean it will be allowed to join, it’s not up to Ukraine. Germany blocked NATO membership for Ukraine even back in 2008. Hungary promised (and did) to veto all NATO integration efforts, probably on behalf of Germany, with Hungarian language laws as an excuse.

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about
     
    Again, it was not about NATO because NATO was not an option for Ukraine. It was about ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and reuniting “Russian” lands.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

    You are squealing like a pig because you got caught. Constitution? right, that’s nothing, who cares. Or that Orban was going to “block it”. Really? Very unlikely, and what if Orban lost an election?

    NATO said it every single year since 2008. In NATO annual statements it is black on white 14 times: Ukraine will be in NATO.

    You are hopelessly confused. At least get your lying stories straight, this is very amateurish.

  977. AP says:
    @Barbarossa
    @AP

    Out of curiosity, if NATO would take a useless liability of a country like Montenegro, what makes you think Ukraine joining was out of the question? Sure there was opposition to such a move, but I see no reason to say that it was out of the realm of reasonable possibility.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

    Germany and France didn’t want to antagonise Russia. And ongoing territorial disputes prevent NATO accession. So Ukraine could even place NATO into it’s constitution and Germany can be polite and say Ukraine is in a plan to eventually join but this did not make joining possible. And I think Sean was correct when he wrote that the Georgian war really spooked several NATO members; this no doubt solidified their opposition to Ukraine joining NATO.

    So as of February 2022, when Russia invaded, there was zero chance of Ukraine joining NATO.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    Germany and France turned out to be as principled as a pair of wet noodles. Your evasive blather about them being polite has no meaning: each year "Ukraine will be in Nato". Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?

    They said it from the highest levels all the way to February 24, including the head of Nato and Zelensky. Even the Pope said that was a provocation that the caused war. It will be seen as such by everyone once emotions cool down.

    There is also the previous Western blather about "saving civilization" as they kill millions around the world. Or was it spreading civilization? Not sure what the current formula is.

    What rational country would take a chance on the continuing "politeness"? Would US, would China?

    Replies: @AP

  978. @216
    @Barbarossa

    Barbarians have no rights to object to industrialization. Settler colonialism was and is good, and this principle shall not be questioned.

    Anyone who wanted was and is allowed to assimilate, but then and now they are cast out as traitors by their own people.

    Any accusation of genocide is a clearly aimed threat at the ability of conservative white Americans like me to exercise Self-Determination. And no moral preening by Europeans will save them from the same demands by the Third World to engage in revenge colonialism.

    That said, the extermination of the bison was deplorable; as is the failure of the US Government to stop the drugs flooding into reservations. It is perfectly fair to support restoring the bison, but any indigenists movements are treason.

    Replies: @sher singh

    Yes.

  979. sher singh says:
    @216
    @Beckow


    Really? When did that last time happen? Or are Macron, Biden, Johnson all about success since the voters didn’t get much of a chance to “vote them out”. You need to teach by example and not with slogans emptied of their meaning by the “hostile elite”.

    It is also an oxymoron to claim “this is how democracy works” and then admit that you are controlled by a hostile elite.
     
    Americans are taught in school that there are three branches of government. That is false, there are five. The media and academia represent the other two, and they are fully controlled by the left.

    Macron was regretfully elected legitimately, but it should be noted that Le Pen was repulsive to the fragment of the French population which are church-attending Boomers. In the US these are the most conservative people (though the most loyal Dems if black, though also the most conservative Dems).

    Nationalists supported the Conservatives in 2019, the UK has not had another election yet. Far-right parties in the UK are moribund and repulsive to normal people. They are also heavily infiltrated by MI5.

    Biden was not legitimately elected, the legitimate President is Donald Trump. A large GOP majority is coming in November, bigger than any Dem fraud.

    They have. One of the Western perennial values is to attack Russia every few generations. They are doing it again.

     

    Many Americans are unaware of it, but I am grateful for Russia's assistance to the Union during our Civil War. America sent tremendous material support to Russia during both World Wars, which tankies refuse to recognize (for it would force them to admit Stalin's brutality and incompetence). And most importantly America, and specifically the US Right, freed Russia from communism; against those who wanted accommodation with the USSR.

    Imagine a West where abortion is banned, divorce is a scandal, large majorities of the population attend church services weekly, immigration is low, everyone is forced to assimilate to White social norms, obesity is non-existent and everyone gets an M1 Garand issued to them by the government.

    That's not a fantasy, that was America before the 1960s disaster. And its not Russia in 2022.

    Replies: @sher singh

    Ooga booga white man. Silvio why wouldn’t any decent man be against trash like this?
    This is the target of anti-white poasting, it triggers them. 216, you can barely preserve let alone re-take

    Whites hates blacks as do Asians & Hispanics. As the latter move in, white attitudes soften.
    Imagine a west where people like you stfu & are banned on account of circumcision.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  980. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @Barbarossa

    Ukraine in NATO is a sine qua non of this war. AP knows that admitting it would undermine his black-and-white narrative. So he and his ilk will stubbornly deny the obvious reality.

    AP is not bothered by the complete idiocy of claiming that "Donbas autonomy would block membership in NATO" and at the same time saying there was not going to be NATO in Ukraine. This is ideology on steroids - to them the end justifies the means, so they lie.

    Replies: @AP

    Ukraine in NATO is a sine qua non of this war

    It’s a nonsensical excuse by Putin, like fighting a Nazi state.

    AP is not bothered by the complete idiocy of claiming that “Donbas autonomy would block membership in NATO” and at the same time saying there was not going to be NATO in Ukraine

    I was saying that Donbas autonomy would block EU membership for Ukraine, which is the most important thing because chances of NATO membership weren’t real.

  981. AP says:
    @Sean
    @AP


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO
     
    So what was the problem with giving the Russian speaking provinces autonomy and and veto over joining Nato? And you are missing what changed after the official 2008 announcement by Nato that Ukraine and Georgia would be joining. I went to a great deal of trouble to explain the sequence of events in a long comment

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-186-russia-ukraine/#comment-5329500

    Apparently I need to spell it out. What happened in a few weeks after the announcement was Russia invaded Georgia. Hence the reason why there went from being an announcement that Ukraine would be joining Nato to an unspoken recognition that it wasn't going to happen is that Putin did something to change the minds of Germany and France ECT ECT. Those countries were in Nato in order to avoid getting into a war with Russia, and Putin's invasion of Georgia made clear that Ukraine would likely end up in a war with Russia over joining Nato.

    Yanukovich was not the one who wrote the Ukrainian constitution in which whoever wins the Presidency appoints the governors, which in 2015 enabled Poroshenko when president of Ukraine to appoint former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to be governor of Odessa. Poroshenko obviously thought that Ukraine could use the masterful diplomatic skills Saakashvili had shown to such advantage in 2008 when under his leadership Georgia blundered into a war with Russia. He obviously taught the Ukrainians well.

    Yanukovich barely won an election in a fluke situation (economic crisis plus squabbling by the two pro-Western rivals, one of whom told his followers to not vote). He used this to turn himself into a would-be despot by flipping the parliament and changing the rules to give himself parliamentary power.
     
    Yes well democracies are commonly wrought by controversy over leaders taking decisions some sdo not like, but when all is said and dome Preventing him from taking office by extra parliamentary actions (organized by Poroshenko) in 2004 may have given Yanukovich the idea that there were powerful integral nationalist forces plotting to remove him.

    He imprisoned his rivals. hen he decided to link Ukraine to Russia, an unpopular position at the time.
     
    It is true that Yanukovich jailed Y. Timoshenko, but Zelensky attempted to convict Poroshenko on twenty charges including one of treason, which forced him to flee the country for a time. And Zelensky trying to jail Poroshenko was what involved Bidens son, caused the Trump_Uklraine impeachment imbroglio, and indirectly led to the Biden administration's unprecedented deluge of weapons for Ukraine and granting Zelensky a meeting with POTUS, which along with the failure to fulfill Minsk2 seems to have provoked Putin into consider mounting an actual full on invasion. Anyway, Yanukovich fairly won an election (making it quite likely that whatever frauds occurred in 2004 his support was real and he had legitimately won the most votes in 2004, as he indisputably did in 2010).

    Yanukovich was not a dictator, so overthrowing him was highly destablising act, and we cannot ignore that Poroshenko, the person who organised the demo-riots to extra-judicially remove Yanukovich from the presidency, then replaced him as President. Before he was elected President, Poroshenko was the eminence grise of Ukraine, with power to overthrow governments. It was Poroshenko and his anti ethic Russian integral nationalism using far right elements that inhibited Zelensky from enacting the Minsk 2 accords for a final settlement; he bears a great deal of responsibility for the tens of thousands of violent deaths that ensued.

    Replies: @AP

    So what was the problem with giving the Russian speaking provinces autonomy and and veto over joining Nato?

    NATO wasn’t going to happen but autonomy would mean veto over joining EU. This was a deal-breaker.

    What happened in a few weeks after the announcement was Russia invaded Georgia. Hence the reason why there went from being an announcement that Ukraine would be joining Nato to an unspoken recognition that it wasn’t going to happen is that Putin did something to change the minds of Germany and France ECT ECT. Those countries were in Nato in order to avoid getting into a war with Russia, and Putin’s invasion of Georgia made clear that Ukraine would likely end up in a war with Russia over joining Nato.

    I don’t disagree that the war with Georgia eliminated any chances for Germany and France. to agree to Ukraine joining NATO.

    Yanukovich was not the one who wrote the Ukrainian constitution in which whoever wins the Presidency appoints the governors

    That wasn’t the problem. The problem is that after winning the Presidency Yanukovich reversed the previous parliamentary election results, giving himself an unelected control over parliament. He also packed the courts with his people, who then approved this unconstitutional act. The equivalent in the USA would have been a Democrat winning the presidency and using illegal means to replace both a conservative Supreme Court and a Republican congress. In this way, a democratically elected president became an undemocratically elected master of the courts and legislature too. Democratically elected people can become dictators.

    It is true that Yanukovich jailed Y. Timoshenko, but Zelensky attempted to convict Poroshenko on twenty charges including one of treason, which forced him to flee the country for a time.

    Poroshenko was never imprisoned nor even placed under arrest when he returned to Ukraine. Medvedchuk was placed under house arrest. Yanukovich imprisoned his enemies.

    Anyway, Yanukovich fairly won an election (making it quite likely that whatever frauds occurred in 2004 his support was real

    In 2004 he had the support of slightly less than half of the electorate. Fraud (such as 125% turnout in his areas) gave him over 49% and victory.

    and he had legitimately won the most votes in 2004, as he indisputably did in 2010

    Nonsense. In 2010 the pro-Western incumbent government had seen the global financial crash and the pro-Western politicians were feuding with each other – one of them even told his supporters to sit out the election. As a result, Yanukovich was in a much better position than in 2004. and yet, even under such ideal conditions he still barely won. This supports the fact that he did not win in 2004, when conditions were much less favorable for him (pro-Westerners were united).

    Yanukovich was not a dictator

    He was trying to build a Belarussian-style despotism but was overthrown before he could solidify his rule.

  982. @Beckow
    @Wokechoke


    ...The decline of Sweden had kicked in and Berlin had not quite found its place yet.
     
    Berlin was in the 18th century still primarily fighting the Habsburg Empire - it was a 150 year struggle for domination of the German world, and by extension Central Europe. Vienna had a head start: they were more prestigious than the upstart Prussians. Vienna also had the Pope in their corner and the recent glory of defeating Turks.

    But demography is destiny: Habsburgs had a multi-national mess on their hands, while Prussia was fully German other than some Polish regions. The outcome was predictable. Sweden and Poland were the big losers in the 18th century - they are still bitter: with Germans emasculated what they have left is deep resentment of Russia.

    Replies: @Wielgus

    When Napoleon returned from Elba Prussia sent an army to fight him, but it consisted heavily of Landwehr reservists,many from newly annexed parts of Germany, and was somewhat scantily equipped. The main reason seems to have been that they kept their best units at home, in case they needed them against their distrusted Austrian “ally”, although overt conflict with Austria did not occur until 1866.

  983. Somebody ban Mr.Hack from posting or at least give it timeouts if he posts massive cringe , im not 100% sure if Mr.Hack is even human at this point, a 50+year old male is posting levels of childish lala land neolib insanity.

    (all while being years on this webiste!..maybe hes some sort of MKULTRA mindcontrol CIA agent to mindfuck people)

    Every time I look at his posts its literally making my eyes bleed and ive seen all kinds of fukd up stuff (havent we all at this point? )

    From the Pink Floyd consoom crap to thinking this is anything but proxy war to the coin thing

    Mr.Hack you’re the walking definition of those Ukrainians who went to foreign lands and want to drag that crap home that Shevchenko described in My Friendly Epistle. Remember what he said about such people…

    Also btw this is what average Estonian nationalists think of this neolib coin thingy. He ratio’d the poster lol.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Svidomyatheart

    Calm down and take your meds little man. Too much fun blazzin?

    https://www.magneticmag.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1200/MTMzMDU2OTgzMDIzNDk1ODEx/clubbing.jpg

    Svidomy at heart, but airhead for brains. :-)

  984. @AP
    @Beckow


    Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO.

    That is a bold-faced lie
     
    The only one who lies here is you. Ukraine had zero chance of joining NATO. Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution does not mean it will be allowed to join, it’s not up to Ukraine. Germany blocked NATO membership for Ukraine even back in 2008. Hungary promised (and did) to veto all NATO integration efforts, probably on behalf of Germany, with Hungarian language laws as an excuse.

    This is a core issue, this is what the war is about
     
    Again, it was not about NATO because NATO was not an option for Ukraine. It was about ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and reuniting “Russian” lands.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Anatoly Karlin

    Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution…

    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one’s nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn’t such a high IQ idea…

    But happily for the Russian World and global border aesthetics alike, Ukraine did just about everything possible including piracy and attempted hijackings to provoke its own current misfortunes. As Putin and others including myself have repeatedly stated, Russia as a self-respecting Great Power has no obligation to tolerate the existence of an Anti-Russia – an extremist state that makes svidomism the basis of its identity – on its borders.

    Good general lesson here on the wisdom of small svidomist statelets such as Taiwan staying in their own lane, though if anything, this is radicalizing them instead.

    • Replies: @awry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?
    Unfortunately for Russia and also for most European non-globocuck nationalists they are losing (maybe not for all, Poland apparently is scheming to swallow Ukraine eventually, as Duda said, they will be one (again, like in the glory days), Poles are dreaming about an "empire" called Intermarium led by them, similar to the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from sea to sea -a great inspiration, if I were a Pole I'd like that too). Russia thinks about itself as a great power but the developments of this war refute this.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one’s nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn’t such a high IQ idea…
     
    Sure, tykhshe yidesh, dalshe budesh (expression is the same in Russian and Ukrainian I think). But it was just fodder for propaganda for gullible people like Beckow. Ukraine’s calls didn’t mean that Ukraine was going to join NATO. One way or another Russia was going to try to integrate Ukraine, and Ukraine didn’t want this. Overestimation if it’s own military prowess and dramatic underestimate of Ukraine by Russian leaders and security men who should have known better led to this debacle.

    Replies: @Sean

  985. awry says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @awry

    Get a grip. I cannot think of a government that has ever been as liberal and tolerant while their cities are destroyed and people are murdered. Your carping hysteria is context-inappropriate. You stupid.

    E.g were I Ukrainian and in Kharkiv I would personally kick Gonzala Lira down the stairs before running down afterwards and stamping on his head, and I know that everyone deserves love and compassion.

    You see, although misused by psychopaths, there still actually is such a thing as asking for it, and living in Ukraine while the entire might of the Russian military is trying to obliterate it, and supporting such obliteration, is more than asking to get lynched, it is full-on begging for it.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @awry

    There were much more people since 2014, not just Gonzalo Lira, who didn’t do anything beyond – as a foreigner – saying things on his vlog, but probably only survived because there was too much talk about him. Ukraine summarily executed many people including mayors and a member of it’s negotiating team. Apparently they sticked some of their killings on the Russians – probably in Bucha too, where the Azov types went in to “clean up” before the news started about the Russian massacre – in the style of classic Soviet propaganda (like “evil Russian invaders shot mayor while handing out bread to the people” etc. Both sides are using the classic Soviet propaganda tropes (they just forgot to add that he was shot through a loaf of bread clenched to his chest) plus the tactics known since Pallywood… after using towns and cities as fortifications they say that the evil Russians are destroying civilian houses and murdering civilians “just because they are evil”, classic war propaganda on both sides, just waiting for the mangled and bayoneted babies to show up, maybe they did just missed it). You don’t have to introduce the Russians doing war, our country did see it too as most of Eastern Europe, or we’ve seen it recently in Chechnya and Syria, but still some news stories and Kyiv rhetoric are way over the top even compared to these wars. After all this it’s totally unhinged to say that Russia could just go home, with a psyched out and armed to the teeth neighbor on its Western border.

  986. @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Russia doesn’t need nukes to win against Ukraine
     
    What's your definition of winning, do you still hold to that idea about capturing Ukraine's human capital of 40 million and destroying Ukraine as a state? Or is it something more limited now like occupying Black sea coast and Donbass (which Russia could conceivably achieve), and then hold/annex that territory and drive Ukraine into ruin through economic blockade and attacks on infrastructure?

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Wokechoke, @216, @Anatoly Karlin

    I see no reason to revise this assessment, which remains indefinitely attainable so long as the attrition ratio favors Russia by 2-3:1 or more:

    Russia’s goals seem to be maximalist. It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia.

    I would agree that Donbass and Crimean Bridge, as Yevardian notes, is the minimum “Pyrrhic” victory condition. I don’t think “drive Ukraine into ruin” is a realistic prospect with the amount of Western aid that is likely to be poured out into any future rump Ukrainian state, while the sanctions are to be indefinite. To some extent, Western policy has made Russia pot-committed to maximalism.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I still think the idea that Russia could annex most of Ukraine (which seems to be implicit in your calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a "Pyrrhic" victory) and successfully turn the population into loyal Russian patriots is crazy megalomania. But thanks for the answer.

    Replies: @Beckow

  987. awry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP


    Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution...
     
    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one's nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn't such a high IQ idea...

    But happily for the Russian World and global border aesthetics alike, Ukraine did just about everything possible including piracy and attempted hijackings to provoke its own current misfortunes. As Putin and others including myself have repeatedly stated, Russia as a self-respecting Great Power has no obligation to tolerate the existence of an Anti-Russia - an extremist state that makes svidomism the basis of its identity - on its borders.

    Good general lesson here on the wisdom of small svidomist statelets such as Taiwan staying in their own lane, though if anything, this is radicalizing them instead.

    Replies: @awry, @AP

    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?
    Unfortunately for Russia and also for most European non-globocuck nationalists they are losing (maybe not for all, Poland apparently is scheming to swallow Ukraine eventually, as Duda said, they will be one (again, like in the glory days), Poles are dreaming about an “empire” called Intermarium led by them, similar to the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from sea to sea -a great inspiration, if I were a Pole I’d like that too). Russia thinks about itself as a great power but the developments of this war refute this.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @awry

    Russia has more of the Ukraine now that it did in 2014, and will most likely have more of it EOY than it does now...

    All that this war has shown is that there are only two real military superpowers, and that they are the US and China.

    https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1508460408759361540

    Replies: @sher singh

    , @Yevardian
    @awry


    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?
     
    That's easy. DNR/LNR were left to rot and decay in permanent limbo. Rest of East Ukraine concluded they would not get anything like the attention Crimea got.
  988. @awry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?
    Unfortunately for Russia and also for most European non-globocuck nationalists they are losing (maybe not for all, Poland apparently is scheming to swallow Ukraine eventually, as Duda said, they will be one (again, like in the glory days), Poles are dreaming about an "empire" called Intermarium led by them, similar to the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from sea to sea -a great inspiration, if I were a Pole I'd like that too). Russia thinks about itself as a great power but the developments of this war refute this.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    Russia has more of the Ukraine now that it did in 2014, and will most likely have more of it EOY than it does now…

    All that this war has shown is that there are only two real military superpowers, and that they are the US and China.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I am sad.

    R1a is reduced to vodka & horses, once again.
    :/

    Worked last time, and every other one though. ;)

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  989. @awry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?
    Unfortunately for Russia and also for most European non-globocuck nationalists they are losing (maybe not for all, Poland apparently is scheming to swallow Ukraine eventually, as Duda said, they will be one (again, like in the glory days), Poles are dreaming about an "empire" called Intermarium led by them, similar to the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from sea to sea -a great inspiration, if I were a Pole I'd like that too). Russia thinks about itself as a great power but the developments of this war refute this.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian

    How did Russia lost Ukraine so utterly in and after 2014, including most of the Russian-speakers?

    That’s easy. DNR/LNR were left to rot and decay in permanent limbo. Rest of East Ukraine concluded they would not get anything like the attention Crimea got.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  990. AP says:
    @Ron Unz
    @AP


    She herself was not there when the crimes occurred, but her husband’s mother’s sister stayed there throughout the occupation. The Russian soldiers (largely Asians like Buryats) committed the crimes. Locals know who did it, they are not stupid. This is corroborated by other evidence showing how long the bodies were there
     
    I should have clarified that my mention of the Bucha Massacre was in reference to those 15-odd bodies lying in the road that received a great deal of discussion at the time as to who killed them and why. I don't have any position on other things that happened in Bucha.

    The official MSM narrative is that the people had been killed by the Russians with their bodies only "discovered" a couple of days after the Russians pulled out. According to the MSM, satellite evidence proves that the bodies had been lying there for something like two weeks, which seems extremely implausible to me given what happens to bodies lying in the open air for such a long period. Several experienced military people claim that the bodies had obviously only been dead a day or two, proving that the Ukrainians killed them after reoccupying the town.

    Also, most of the victims were wearing white-cloth armbands, which apparently indicates lack of hostility to Russian troops, and the others seemed to have their hands bound with such white cloth. Near their bodies were unopened Russian meal-kits, which the Russians had distributed to local "friendlies." This further suggests they were considered pro-Russian elements.

    Supposedly, a Ukrainian website announced that Bucha was being subjected to a "cleansing operation" aimed at traitors. This would fit with the other facts of what happened.

    I don't speak Russian or Ukrainian and don't have military expertise, but all of this seems very plausible to me. Why would all the victims of the Russian massacre be wearing pro-Russian white-cloths?

    We've published 4-5 articles on the Bucha massacre and I listened to several of Scott Ritter's podcasts:

    https://www.unz.com/article/msms-bucha-tall-tale/

    Replies: @AP

    Note: I am posting a copy of this to the next Open Thread.

    The problem with pretending that the Bucha rapes and massacres didn’t happen or that the Ukrainians themselves did it is that Bucha is full of people who can recall when it happened and who did it. Even ore than in Sandy Hook, it’s hard to deny something with those characteristics. Also, while it is possible (indeed likely) that there wuld be some pro-Russian collaborators there, Bucha and the rest of Kiev is very nationalistic (as much as Galicia) so this number would be small and would not account for more than a fraction of the deaths (if, indeed, collaborators were killed).

    If Russia were smarter, rather than deny the massacres they would justify them by stating that the civilians made themselves legitimate targets by helping the Ukrainian military. There was mass anti-Russian activity in those towns:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ukrainian-civilians-risked-their-lives-to-help-win-the-battle-for-kyiv-11652002200

    ““Everyone here was doing all they could to get Russian troop movement across to our boys,” said Natalia Mohilni, a homemaker in Novyi Bykiv, who had called in soldier locations in and around the village, where locals said the Russians had set up a mobile crematorium to discard the dead.”

    ““No one wants the destruction, but we wanted the Russians even less,” she said. “Not having a chimney means we need to wait to use the wood oven, but that’s fine.”

    The strikes against the incoming Russian formations prevented crucial reinforcements and supplies from reaching Kyiv from the east, leaving Moscow’s troops undermanned and undersupplied, said Ukrainian officials and defense analysts. By the end of March, Russia had decided its attempt to seize Kyiv had failed and repositioned its forces in the country’s east.”

    ::::::::::::

    I remember backward troglodytes like Martyanov scoffing at Ukrainian IT prowess compared to Soviet-era tractor manufacturing, saying it was useless. Well:

    To streamline the process for Ukrainian defenders, the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation launched chatbots on the popular Telegram messaging app that let Ukrainians share Russian troop locations online in a single database that went through the country’s Security Service. The capital’s Kyiv Digital app, which once helped people pay parking tickets and notify residents of temporary water cuts, was reconfigured to help users spot Russian troop movements and provide them to the military staff of the Armed Forces.

    [MORE]

    “The information was all given to the general staff and it was checked out, triangulated with other data and if the information was confirmed we would shoot to kill,” said Oleg Zhdanov, an independent Ukrainian military expert. “The information was particularly important during the first weeks of the conflict when columns of armor were coming straight down the road.”

    In the following weeks, he added, the ability to stop fuel, water and food supplies helped degrade the performance of Russia’s troops around Kyiv.

    The platforms gave instructions to provide “location, movement, volume of military equipment and personnel of the occupier.” Others explained to villagers how to drop pins on Google maps to send into security services and reminded users to delete their messages to prevent being caught by Russian troops.

  991. @Anatoly Karlin
    @awry

    Russia has more of the Ukraine now that it did in 2014, and will most likely have more of it EOY than it does now...

    All that this war has shown is that there are only two real military superpowers, and that they are the US and China.

    https://twitter.com/powerfultakes/status/1508460408759361540

    Replies: @sher singh

    I am sad.

    R1a is reduced to vodka & horses, once again.
    :/

    Worked last time, and every other one though. 😉

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  992. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP


    Ukraine saying it will join NATO in its constitution...
     
    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one's nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn't such a high IQ idea...

    But happily for the Russian World and global border aesthetics alike, Ukraine did just about everything possible including piracy and attempted hijackings to provoke its own current misfortunes. As Putin and others including myself have repeatedly stated, Russia as a self-respecting Great Power has no obligation to tolerate the existence of an Anti-Russia - an extremist state that makes svidomism the basis of its identity - on its borders.

    Good general lesson here on the wisdom of small svidomist statelets such as Taiwan staying in their own lane, though if anything, this is radicalizing them instead.

    Replies: @awry, @AP

    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one’s nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn’t such a high IQ idea…

    Sure, tykhshe yidesh, dalshe budesh (expression is the same in Russian and Ukrainian I think). But it was just fodder for propaganda for gullible people like Beckow. Ukraine’s calls didn’t mean that Ukraine was going to join NATO. One way or another Russia was going to try to integrate Ukraine, and Ukraine didn’t want this. Overestimation if it’s own military prowess and dramatic underestimate of Ukraine by Russian leaders and security men who should have known better led to this debacle.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP


    One way or another Russia was going to try to integrate Ukraine, and Ukraine didn’t want this
     
    Ukraine left Russia after being gifted Crimea, a proportionate share of the Russian military machine, but without a liability to pay any of the Russian national debt. Yanukovych won the 2010 election. He then accepted a deal from Putin of a 15 billion bail out plus a long term 20% reduction in gas price for Ukraine compared to the rest of Europe. The ousting of Yanukovych started a low intensity regional civil war, and while Russia aided the rebels they were ethnic Russian Ukrainians fighting other Ukrainians.
  993. Since this thread is close to 1,000 comments and pretty sluggish, people should be aware that I’ve opened a new one, and gradually migrate over there:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-187-russia-ukraine/

  994. German_reader says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @German_reader

    I see no reason to revise this assessment, which remains indefinitely attainable so long as the attrition ratio favors Russia by 2-3:1 or more:


    Russia’s goals seem to be maximalist. It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia.
     
    I would agree that Donbass and Crimean Bridge, as Yevardian notes, is the minimum "Pyrrhic" victory condition. I don't think "drive Ukraine into ruin" is a realistic prospect with the amount of Western aid that is likely to be poured out into any future rump Ukrainian state, while the sanctions are to be indefinite. To some extent, Western policy has made Russia pot-committed to maximalism.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I still think the idea that Russia could annex most of Ukraine (which seems to be implicit in your calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a “Pyrrhic” victory) and successfully turn the population into loyal Russian patriots is crazy megalomania. But thanks for the answer.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ....calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a “Pyrrhic” victory
     
    Pyrrhic doesn't apply here. Pyrrhic means winning a battle at such high cost that you cannot go on and must withdraw. That's what Pyrrha meant by saying "one more victory like this and I will be without an army".

    Winning and keeping territory - Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast - is not "Pyrrhic". It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military. Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.

    We could retroactively declare many wars as "Pyrrhic" since things change over time. Did England ever "win" against the Irish? Or French in Algeria? Even US against Mexico? Wars are often costly and winnings unsustainable. The cost has to be compared to the best other alternative to a war. It is too early to know in this case what is sustainable: Ukrainians in the east are not a monolith.

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP

  995. @AP
    @Barbarossa

    Germany and France didn’t want to antagonise Russia. And ongoing territorial disputes prevent NATO accession. So Ukraine could even place NATO into it’s constitution and Germany can be polite and say Ukraine is in a plan to eventually join but this did not make joining possible. And I think Sean was correct when he wrote that the Georgian war really spooked several NATO members; this no doubt solidified their opposition to Ukraine joining NATO.

    So as of February 2022, when Russia invaded, there was zero chance of Ukraine joining NATO.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Germany and France turned out to be as principled as a pair of wet noodles. Your evasive blather about them being polite has no meaning: each year “Ukraine will be in Nato“. Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?

    They said it from the highest levels all the way to February 24, including the head of Nato and Zelensky. Even the Pope said that was a provocation that the caused war. It will be seen as such by everyone once emotions cool down.

    There is also the previous Western blather about “saving civilization” as they kill millions around the world. Or was it spreading civilization? Not sure what the current formula is.

    What rational country would take a chance on the continuing “politeness”? Would US, would China?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    each year “Ukraine will be in Nato“. Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?
     
    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then? LOL.

    Replies: @Sean

  996. @Mikhail
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Billy Jean King, Nadal and Navratilova as well.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Good on Nadal. He was very gracious to Alcatraz in Madrid yesterday. I wonder if the young fellow knows Nadal is just getting warmed up for Paris?

    Navratilova has become quite the elder states-woman. She was very unpopular when she was pummeling Chris Evert back in the day and people called her a dyke and an XXY and all kind of stuff.

    She also has said shemales should not be allowed in women’s competition and her name is now mud again. When she visited my city she had a personal entourage of the three most lipstick-y lesbians you ever saw in your life. You could have swapped her out and swapped Leonardo de Caprio right in.

  997. @German_reader
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I still think the idea that Russia could annex most of Ukraine (which seems to be implicit in your calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a "Pyrrhic" victory) and successfully turn the population into loyal Russian patriots is crazy megalomania. But thanks for the answer.

    Replies: @Beckow

    ….calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a “Pyrrhic” victory

    Pyrrhic doesn’t apply here. Pyrrhic means winning a battle at such high cost that you cannot go on and must withdraw. That’s what Pyrrha meant by saying “one more victory like this and I will be without an army“.

    Winning and keeping territory – Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast – is not “Pyrrhic”. It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military. Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.

    We could retroactively declare many wars as “Pyrrhic” since things change over time. Did England ever “win” against the Irish? Or French in Algeria? Even US against Mexico? Wars are often costly and winnings unsustainable. The cost has to be compared to the best other alternative to a war. It is too early to know in this case what is sustainable: Ukrainians in the east are not a monolith.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Beckow


    Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.
     
    Why are you telling that to me, it was Karlin who used the term (and before that Yevardian). I don't agree with it myself, imo it's inappropriate and indicative of rather excessive ambition.
    , @AP
    @Beckow


    Winning and keeping territory – Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast – is not “Pyrrhic”. It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military
     
    If in the process of successfully grabbing a small amount of territory Russia loses much of its best and most modern weapons and can not easily replenish them due to sanctions and a crippled economy, such that Russia ends up being much weaker then it had been before the war for this land, than this would meet the definition of being a Pyrrhic victory, which is “ is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.”

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

  998. German_reader says:
    @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ....calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a “Pyrrhic” victory
     
    Pyrrhic doesn't apply here. Pyrrhic means winning a battle at such high cost that you cannot go on and must withdraw. That's what Pyrrha meant by saying "one more victory like this and I will be without an army".

    Winning and keeping territory - Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast - is not "Pyrrhic". It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military. Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.

    We could retroactively declare many wars as "Pyrrhic" since things change over time. Did England ever "win" against the Irish? Or French in Algeria? Even US against Mexico? Wars are often costly and winnings unsustainable. The cost has to be compared to the best other alternative to a war. It is too early to know in this case what is sustainable: Ukrainians in the east are not a monolith.

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP

    Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.

    Why are you telling that to me, it was Karlin who used the term (and before that Yevardian). I don’t agree with it myself, imo it’s inappropriate and indicative of rather excessive ambition.

  999. AP says:
    @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ....calling annexation of Donbass and Black sea coast a “Pyrrhic” victory
     
    Pyrrhic doesn't apply here. Pyrrhic means winning a battle at such high cost that you cannot go on and must withdraw. That's what Pyrrha meant by saying "one more victory like this and I will be without an army".

    Winning and keeping territory - Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast - is not "Pyrrhic". It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military. Using the Pyrrhic term that way is wrong.

    We could retroactively declare many wars as "Pyrrhic" since things change over time. Did England ever "win" against the Irish? Or French in Algeria? Even US against Mexico? Wars are often costly and winnings unsustainable. The cost has to be compared to the best other alternative to a war. It is too early to know in this case what is sustainable: Ukrainians in the east are not a monolith.

    Replies: @German_reader, @AP

    Winning and keeping territory – Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast – is not “Pyrrhic”. It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military

    If in the process of successfully grabbing a small amount of territory Russia loses much of its best and most modern weapons and can not easily replenish them due to sanctions and a crippled economy, such that Russia ends up being much weaker then it had been before the war for this land, than this would meet the definition of being a Pyrrhic victory, which is “ is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.”

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP

    There is such a thing as a costly signal. What Russia has signaled in being ready willing and able to actually take old school military action and not quit when the going gets tough is that Russia ought to be taken seriously. Unless a country has that credibility, its weapons are useless.

    , @Wokechoke
    @AP

    Pyrrhic is when you belong to the Macedonian Royal family (Pyrrhus was a cousin of Alexander) and you encounter the Roman Republic for the first time. Ukraine isn’t the nascent Roman Republic.

    Pyrrhus was, at least according to Roman authors shocked in his encounter with these tough Latins.

    He was alright though, in the end. He got killed in some squabble among Greeks back home.

  1000. @sher singh
    @Philip Owen

    Anglos also readily own up to a lot more than Americans, French or Spanish.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    And definitely more than the Russians.

  1001. @Beckow
    @AP

    Germany and France turned out to be as principled as a pair of wet noodles. Your evasive blather about them being polite has no meaning: each year "Ukraine will be in Nato". Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?

    They said it from the highest levels all the way to February 24, including the head of Nato and Zelensky. Even the Pope said that was a provocation that the caused war. It will be seen as such by everyone once emotions cool down.

    There is also the previous Western blather about "saving civilization" as they kill millions around the world. Or was it spreading civilization? Not sure what the current formula is.

    What rational country would take a chance on the continuing "politeness"? Would US, would China?

    Replies: @AP

    each year “Ukraine will be in Nato“. Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?

    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then? LOL.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP


    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then?
     
    Applicable to Zelensky. The Russians were thought to be bluffing by Zelensky up until a few weeks before the invasion, we know this because he told Biden to stop talking about it as the Ukrainian economy might be damaged.

    Before initiating the offensive Putin had two demands; apart from the expected one of Ukraine never joining Nato, he also insisted that Nato abandoned military activity in eastern Europe. The second demand is by my way of thinking an indication that before it started he was determined to fight a war against Ukraine and leave neither Nato of Ukraine any wriggle room. It likely also indicates he intended to see it out to the bitter end. Russia was quite put out by Ukraine going back on the Minsk agreement and getting a surge in advanced weapons from America and others.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  1002. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Beckow


    each year “Ukraine will be in Nato“. Were they lying then, or are you lying now to deny the obvious?
     
    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then? LOL.

    Replies: @Sean

    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then?

    Applicable to Zelensky. The Russians were thought to be bluffing by Zelensky up until a few weeks before the invasion, we know this because he told Biden to stop talking about it as the Ukrainian economy might be damaged.

    Before initiating the offensive Putin had two demands; apart from the expected one of Ukraine never joining Nato, he also insisted that Nato abandoned military activity in eastern Europe. The second demand is by my way of thinking an indication that before it started he was determined to fight a war against Ukraine and leave neither Nato of Ukraine any wriggle room. It likely also indicates he intended to see it out to the bitter end. Russia was quite put out by Ukraine going back on the Minsk agreement and getting a surge in advanced weapons from America and others.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @Sean

    Russia’s existential struggle.

    Part self fulfilling prophesy part inevitability.

  1003. @Svidomyatheart
    Somebody ban Mr.Hack from posting or at least give it timeouts if he posts massive cringe , im not 100% sure if Mr.Hack is even human at this point, a 50+year old male is posting levels of childish lala land neolib insanity.

    (all while being years on this webiste!..maybe hes some sort of MKULTRA mindcontrol CIA agent to mindfuck people)

    Every time I look at his posts its literally making my eyes bleed and ive seen all kinds of fukd up stuff (havent we all at this point? )


    From the Pink Floyd consoom crap to thinking this is anything but proxy war to the coin thing


    Mr.Hack you're the walking definition of those Ukrainians who went to foreign lands and want to drag that crap home that Shevchenko described in My Friendly Epistle. Remember what he said about such people...




    Also btw this is what average Estonian nationalists think of this neolib coin thingy. He ratio'd the poster lol.

    https://twitter.com/usutav/status/1522967168169750528

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Calm down and take your meds little man. Too much fun blazzin?

    Svidomy at heart, but airhead for brains. 🙂

  1004. Sean says:
    @AP
    @Beckow


    Winning and keeping territory – Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast – is not “Pyrrhic”. It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military
     
    If in the process of successfully grabbing a small amount of territory Russia loses much of its best and most modern weapons and can not easily replenish them due to sanctions and a crippled economy, such that Russia ends up being much weaker then it had been before the war for this land, than this would meet the definition of being a Pyrrhic victory, which is “ is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.”

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

    There is such a thing as a costly signal. What Russia has signaled in being ready willing and able to actually take old school military action and not quit when the going gets tough is that Russia ought to be taken seriously. Unless a country has that credibility, its weapons are useless.

  1005. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Almost like demonstratively thumbing one’s nose at a much more powerful neighbor wasn’t such a high IQ idea…
     
    Sure, tykhshe yidesh, dalshe budesh (expression is the same in Russian and Ukrainian I think). But it was just fodder for propaganda for gullible people like Beckow. Ukraine’s calls didn’t mean that Ukraine was going to join NATO. One way or another Russia was going to try to integrate Ukraine, and Ukraine didn’t want this. Overestimation if it’s own military prowess and dramatic underestimate of Ukraine by Russian leaders and security men who should have known better led to this debacle.

    Replies: @Sean

    One way or another Russia was going to try to integrate Ukraine, and Ukraine didn’t want this

    Ukraine left Russia after being gifted Crimea, a proportionate share of the Russian military machine, but without a liability to pay any of the Russian national debt. Yanukovych won the 2010 election. He then accepted a deal from Putin of a 15 billion bail out plus a long term 20% reduction in gas price for Ukraine compared to the rest of Europe. The ousting of Yanukovych started a low intensity regional civil war, and while Russia aided the rebels they were ethnic Russian Ukrainians fighting other Ukrainians.

  1006. @AP
    @Beckow


    Winning and keeping territory – Donbass-Mariupol and Black See coast – is not “Pyrrhic”. It may be foolish, costly and unsustainable, but it is not destroying the Russian military
     
    If in the process of successfully grabbing a small amount of territory Russia loses much of its best and most modern weapons and can not easily replenish them due to sanctions and a crippled economy, such that Russia ends up being much weaker then it had been before the war for this land, than this would meet the definition of being a Pyrrhic victory, which is “ is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it.”

    Replies: @Sean, @Wokechoke

    Pyrrhic is when you belong to the Macedonian Royal family (Pyrrhus was a cousin of Alexander) and you encounter the Roman Republic for the first time. Ukraine isn’t the nascent Roman Republic.

    Pyrrhus was, at least according to Roman authors shocked in his encounter with these tough Latins.

    He was alright though, in the end. He got killed in some squabble among Greeks back home.

  1007. @Sean
    @AP


    You think there was even a chance that they were honest then?
     
    Applicable to Zelensky. The Russians were thought to be bluffing by Zelensky up until a few weeks before the invasion, we know this because he told Biden to stop talking about it as the Ukrainian economy might be damaged.

    Before initiating the offensive Putin had two demands; apart from the expected one of Ukraine never joining Nato, he also insisted that Nato abandoned military activity in eastern Europe. The second demand is by my way of thinking an indication that before it started he was determined to fight a war against Ukraine and leave neither Nato of Ukraine any wriggle room. It likely also indicates he intended to see it out to the bitter end. Russia was quite put out by Ukraine going back on the Minsk agreement and getting a surge in advanced weapons from America and others.

    Replies: @Wokechoke

    Russia’s existential struggle.

    Part self fulfilling prophesy part inevitability.

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