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Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag.

Given the tremendous focus upon the current Israel/Gaza conflict, I’d recommend my long recent article on that topic:

There’s actually growing evidence that a large fraction of all the Israeli civilians killed in the Hamas attack actually died from the friendly fire of the disorganized and confused Israeli military forces who counter-attacked. Meanwhile, interviews by former Israeli captives emphasis that they were treated very well and respectfully by the Hamas militants:

Meanwhile, a top Likud leader ferociously threatened nuclear-armed Russia for its relative neutrality in the bitter conflict:

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Gaza, Israel/Palestine, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. German_reader says:

    There’s actually growing evidence that a large fraction of all the Israeli civilians killed in the Hamas attack actually died from the friendly fire of the disorganized and confused Israeli military forces who counter-attacked.

    There seems to be a lot of footage showing deliberate killings of Israeli civilians by Hamas fighters. Some apparently of a fairly disturbing nature ( https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/why-israeli-officials-screened-footage-hamas-attack/675735/ ).
    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader


    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.
     
    IIRC, they initially limited their attacks on civilians to the West Bank and Gaza but later changed their mind about this after Baruch Goldstein's Hebron massacre and decided to launch attacks on civilians in Israel proper as well.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre

    Two separate suicide bombings took place in April 1994, carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel and launched by Hamas' Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades in retaliation for the massacre carried out by Goldstein.[37] A total of 8 Israeli civilians were killed and 55 wounded in the first attack, which took place in Afula on 6 April,[38] at the end of the forty-day mourning period for Goldstein's victims.[39] Six more were killed and 30 injured in Hadera bus station suicide bombing a week later. Those were the first suicide bombings carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel. According to Matti Steinberg, then Shin Bet head's advisor on Palestinian affairs, Hamas had until then refrained from attacking civilian targets inside Israel, and the change in this policy was a result of Goldstein's massacre.[40]
     
    As a side note, the current Israeli government has a Baruch Goldstein admirer in it:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ben-gvir-responds-to-bennett-fine-ill-take-down-baruch-goldsteins-picture/

    Netanyahu wanted him in there so that his right-wing bloc could get an extra Knesset seat or two, which is vital for Netanyahu since the left-wing refuses to be in a coalition with him other than for emergencies (COVID-19 and the current Gaza war) due to Netanyahu's corruption allegations.

    Replies: @nazirss

    , @yakushimaru
    @German_reader

    Morality is a luxury of civilization. War gradually drives everyone into a frenzy. Very soon we ourselves will become savages. The escalation is still going strong.

    , @ShortOnTime
    @German_reader

    The footage of that Filipino migrant laborer having his head mauled with a shovel was wild. Idk if it was Hamas or ordinary Gazans, but that guy already had a gunshot wound in the stomach.

    Anyway, what really matters is whether Israel's upcoming ground offensive into Gaza succeeds as smoothly as possible or gets bogged down. If it takes Israel more than 3 months to conquer Gaza, then Israel's most likely going to face serious problems. If Israel ends up agreeing or having to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas or some sort of status quo ante restoration, then it's hard to read that as anything else than a defeat for Israel.

    Otherwise, the only thing I care about is that Greek Orthodox Church and the Christian Palestinians that Israel bombed in Gaza but no one is paying any attention to.

  2. Many Anti-Semites keep asking why there is so little sympathy for the Hamas terrorists who attacked unarmed civilians in Jewish Palestine. This should be a self answering question. Intentionally targeting civilians is inherently unsympathetic.

    Then there was the fraud claiming 500 died in a hospital attack. As soon as the pictures showed up, the fabrication fell apart. The evidence showed no bomb crater and widespread fire damage in the car park. A low quality Iranian rocket misfired and landed there spreading unburnt fuel. It is possible that no one died. It certainly was not 500. No one is believing the bogus claims from Pallywood anymore.

    Genocidal, leftoid groups at educational institutions are also busy wiping out any potential sympathy: (1)

    A pro-Hamas student group at Florida State University recently joined several left-leaning Tallahassee activist organizations to protest against the state of Israel.

    Campus Reform obtained footage of the rally and subsequent speeches.

    Members from FSU SDS, along with Tallahassee Community Action Committee (TCAC) and Freedom Road Socialist Organization-Tallahassee, called for the eradication of Israel and Zionism.

    An Instagram announcement for the event was captioned with the phrase, “FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA, PALESTINE WILL BE FREE!”

    The rally also featured several speakers. The first, identified by Campus Reform as TCAC Communications Director Regina Joseph, opened her speech with a “Black Lives Matter!” chant.

    “The liberation of black people in this country cannot exist until Palestine is free,” Joseph said. “We are in the belly of the beast.” The rest of her speech—much of which was inaudible due to the demonstrators’ muffled audio quality—focused on Israel’s “oppression of Palestine” and America’s “oppression of black people.”

    Who wants to be on the same side as BLM?

    Perhaps we should thank the crazy SJW’s. They are generating massive sympathy for Israelis.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.campusreform.org/article?id=24253

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @A123


    Intentionally targeting civilians is inherently unsympathetic.
     
    I think that the Algerians who did this in the 1950s and early 1960s got a bit more sympathy from the international community, no? Of course, probably no individual attack of theirs was as brutal as what Hamas did to Israel. And Hamas arguably wants to liberate all of historical Palestine, from the river to the sea, whereas Algerians simply wanted their own independent state in all of Algeria but did not give a rat's ass about France as an official matter (a lot of their own people did eventually want to move to France later on in pursuit of a better life, though).
    , @nazirss
    @A123

    https://www.rt.com/news/586065-israel-doxxing-truck-swat-raid/

    Accuracy in media , Ben Shapiro, Nick Hailey , De Santis, Israeli president Herzog are the foxes guarding the hen house .

    What have you heard from Kristol, Dennis Ross, Feith, FDD,ADL. and Jackson society lately?

  3. Wondering about this poll, no idea if this makes sense.

    INSA poll, Germany (23-27 October, 1216 respondents)

    SPD 16%
    CDU/CSU 31%
    Greens 13%
    FDP 6%
    AfD 21%
    Linke 4%
    FW 3%

    Same poll but with Sahra Wagenknecht’s prospective party (BSW) included:

    SPD 15%
    CDU/CSU 29%
    Greens 12%
    FDP 5%
    AfD 17%
    Linke 4%
    FW 2%
    BSW 14%

    Since the numbers don’t add up to a hundred, I assume they silently subtract those who are undecided or choose something else. AfD loses a bit more than the others, but assuming this is reasonably accurate Wagenknecht’s party draws evenly from the spectrum of parties along with those who don’t intend to vote for any of the others.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Hyperborean

    I'm very skeptical that Wagenknecht's party will manage to establish itself as a permanent element of the party system. As I wrote in the last thread
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6222860
    it's essentially a one-woman-show, reliant on Wagenknecht's popularity. The other figures involved with it so far are all also former LINKE politicians, none of whom is especially charismatic or popular (or even particularly well-known in the wider public). Their appeal to anybody but former LINKE voters should be limited. It will also be impossible for them to adopt the hardline stance on immigration that is necessary given how serious the situation is. So I don't think AfD will lose that much to Wagenknecht's party (though the media will do their best to bring about such an outcome, presenting BSW as the "decent" alternative for those dissatisfied with the present establishment).

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Mr. XYZ

  4. [MORE]

    https://nitter.net/stats_feed/status/1718283121400205785#m

  5. Here is a good primer on what to expect in coming weeks: (1)

    Israel appears to be ramping up the direct targeting of Hamas operations in Gaza. Unfortunately, Hamas has the mechanics of their terror machine enmeshed with the civilian population centers and key infrastructure. This allows Hamas to conduct Pallywood propaganda operations in the aftermath. Culturally, the Palestinian people live amid a social value system that rewards victimhood – the more dramatic, the more useful.

     

     

    The Israeli war against Hamas is likely to be a long duration event, encompassing several months. The network of tunnels that Hamas has developed under the Gaza strip will have to be targeted methodically in order to try and minimize “civilian” casualties. However, the tunnels are located in places for maximum “human shielding” such as the Shifa Hospital – example above.

    We end up watching something akin to a catch-22. Israel can only take this methodical approach, lasting several months, because the U.S. presence is deterring other foreign actors from getting involved. Without the U.S. military presence, the slow and deliberate process of trying to avoid civilian casualties would have to be a lot faster and likely create more collateral damage.

    Egypt showed that filling tunnels with seawater is an effective method. Will we see that here as well? The IDF probably cannot lead with this technique as they want to find & rescue hostages. However, any tubes that are known to be hostage free could be flooded.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/10/27/israeli-defense-forces-begin-enhanced-operations-against-hamas-in-gaza/

  6. We all are milk toast except for this guy.

    https://interzoneanalysis.com/79-2/

    Interzone interviews David Myatt. Feb-Mar 2023.

    • Thanks: Ivashka the fool
    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Funny you'd write about him Emil, I was going to (humorously) reply to your O9A comment on the other thread that "David Myatt did nothing wrong". It made me wonder what had become of the man, and here you are providing some news of the Numenous Way founder.



    https://www.releasemagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/450x450bb.jpg

    Speaking of which, how many angles do you count on this image ?

    https://youtu.be/FgjqFSc1ZEk?feature=shared

    And he was on very friendly terms with the Azov guys.

    Of course, it is easier to be a (pseudo ?) O9A member and live in Lichtenstein, just like it was easier to be a commie in Paris than Moscow...

    🙂

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Emil Nikola Richard

  7. German_reader says:
    @Hyperborean
    Wondering about this poll, no idea if this makes sense.

    INSA poll, Germany (23-27 October, 1216 respondents)

    SPD 16%
    CDU/CSU 31%
    Greens 13%
    FDP 6%
    AfD 21%
    Linke 4%
    FW 3%

    Same poll but with Sahra Wagenknecht's prospective party (BSW) included:

    SPD 15%
    CDU/CSU 29%
    Greens 12%
    FDP 5%
    AfD 17%
    Linke 4%
    FW 2%
    BSW 14%

    Since the numbers don't add up to a hundred, I assume they silently subtract those who are undecided or choose something else. AfD loses a bit more than the others, but assuming this is reasonably accurate Wagenknecht's party draws evenly from the spectrum of parties along with those who don't intend to vote for any of the others.

    Replies: @German_reader

    I’m very skeptical that Wagenknecht’s party will manage to establish itself as a permanent element of the party system. As I wrote in the last thread
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6222860
    it’s essentially a one-woman-show, reliant on Wagenknecht’s popularity. The other figures involved with it so far are all also former LINKE politicians, none of whom is especially charismatic or popular (or even particularly well-known in the wider public). Their appeal to anybody but former LINKE voters should be limited. It will also be impossible for them to adopt the hardline stance on immigration that is necessary given how serious the situation is. So I don’t think AfD will lose that much to Wagenknecht’s party (though the media will do their best to bring about such an outcome, presenting BSW as the “decent” alternative for those dissatisfied with the present establishment).

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @German_reader

    I see. What do you think about the FPÖ? They seem to have recovered from Ibiza, but I don't know enough about recent Austrian politics if the ÖVP will agree to be junior coalition partners or if they plan to be obstructive.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader

    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn't for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase. Here in the US, I support the Democrats because the Republicans are a clown show and because our Hispanic immigrants aren't that bad and are in any case more-or-less compensated by the cognitive elites whom we import from the rest of the world. But if I was a European, I'd be more inclined to be in the anti-immigration camp at least as it pertained to (non-cognitively elitist) Muslim (and African) immigration. (The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I'm chill with, just so long as they don't bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.) But I also wouldn't want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.

    Replies: @Hyperborean

  8. @German_reader
    @Hyperborean

    I'm very skeptical that Wagenknecht's party will manage to establish itself as a permanent element of the party system. As I wrote in the last thread
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6222860
    it's essentially a one-woman-show, reliant on Wagenknecht's popularity. The other figures involved with it so far are all also former LINKE politicians, none of whom is especially charismatic or popular (or even particularly well-known in the wider public). Their appeal to anybody but former LINKE voters should be limited. It will also be impossible for them to adopt the hardline stance on immigration that is necessary given how serious the situation is. So I don't think AfD will lose that much to Wagenknecht's party (though the media will do their best to bring about such an outcome, presenting BSW as the "decent" alternative for those dissatisfied with the present establishment).

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Mr. XYZ

    I see. What do you think about the FPÖ? They seem to have recovered from Ibiza, but I don’t know enough about recent Austrian politics if the ÖVP will agree to be junior coalition partners or if they plan to be obstructive.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Hyperborean


    What do you think about the FPÖ?
     
    Can't say I follow Austrian politics closely, but yes, if I understand correctly they're the strongest party in polls now. Herbert Kickl seems to be pretty sound, doesn't do the usual condemnations of identitarians etc. when pressured by journalists, might be a competent, principled guy. So maybe Ibiza actually was for the best, given how it ended Strache's career (who came across like the not very smart and vulgar type that is unfortunately common in many right-wing parties) and removed any illusions about the ÖVP.
    No idea though what the ÖVP intends to do now. iirc Kurz's trial started recently. One certainly can't count him out either, if it's in any way possible he'll probably try to re-enter politics and maybe aim at becoming chancellor again at some point later this decade.
  9. @Emil Nikola Richard
    We all are milk toast except for this guy.

    https://interzoneanalysis.com/79-2/

    Interzone interviews David Myatt. Feb-Mar 2023.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    Funny you’d write about him Emil, I was going to (humorously) reply to your O9A comment on the other thread that “David Myatt did nothing wrong”. It made me wonder what had become of the man, and here you are providing some news of the Numenous Way founder.

    [MORE]

    Speaking of which, how many angles do you count on this image ?

    And he was on very friendly terms with the Azov guys.

    Of course, it is easier to be a (pseudo ?) O9A member and live in Lichtenstein, just like it was easier to be a commie in Paris than Moscow…

    🙂

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Ivashka the fool

    They did all they could to smear him. But what really matters is what a man becomes in his deepest heart and mind. I think he is doing great spiritually despite their (justified) hatred of him. Many thanks for this interview, Emil. Much appreciated.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    He is living in Australia now. The guy doing the interview also is an Aussie. The interviewer said the war on terrorism laws there prohibit him from linking to any authentic O9A literature. A couple years ago somebody posted on some thread (I believe it was on unz but maybe it was reddit or somewhere else) that they didn't believe any of that human sacrifice stuff. I linked to the O9A doc where they have the business about 95% of all humans are good for nothing but using for their sacrifice rituals and pointed them to the chapter, page, and verse. Maybe I won't do that again.

    Have you seen what wikipedia has done with the O9A page? It would really be horrifying if all those crimes weren't incited by undercover agents. As it is it is pathetic. I saw an interview with Joseph Matheny the other day where he said no left hand path order can have any public facing representation--they just get flooded with the stupidest and most useless people imaginable.

    If you trace it back to ground zero it all goes back to Nietzsche. : )

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  10. Is all that racial classification/phenotype stuff actually a real thing? I mean the types you come across on different forums who try to “classify” people into minute racial categories like Alpinid, Dinarid, Hallstatt, Gracile Med, etc.

    Most of them seem to believe they can pin point what country a person comes from, even what specific region of a country, based purely on their facial features.

    Is there any real basis to this sort of hyper localised racial classification or is it just autistic pseudo-science?

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Europe Europa


    it just autistic pseudo-science?
     
    Yes it is.
    , @silviosilver
    @Europe Europa


    I mean the types you come across on different forums who try to “classify” people into minute racial categories like Alpinid, Dinarid, Hallstatt, Gracile Med, etc.
     
    Race is a continuum and racial relatedness (more related/less related) is a fact, so by the time you cross from Britain to Bulgaria, you encounter pretty obvious racial differentiation, but this "racial types" stuff is mostly nonsense. Even the same person "categorizing" the same set of pics (which is all they have to work with) a month apart will result in different categorizations. Informal tests that have been run on those sites reveal that people who claim they can demonstrate little ability to predict which ethnicities individuals or crowds belong to simply based on appearance.
  11. German_reader says:
    @Hyperborean
    @German_reader

    I see. What do you think about the FPÖ? They seem to have recovered from Ibiza, but I don't know enough about recent Austrian politics if the ÖVP will agree to be junior coalition partners or if they plan to be obstructive.

    Replies: @German_reader

    What do you think about the FPÖ?

    Can’t say I follow Austrian politics closely, but yes, if I understand correctly they’re the strongest party in polls now. Herbert Kickl seems to be pretty sound, doesn’t do the usual condemnations of identitarians etc. when pressured by journalists, might be a competent, principled guy. So maybe Ibiza actually was for the best, given how it ended Strache’s career (who came across like the not very smart and vulgar type that is unfortunately common in many right-wing parties) and removed any illusions about the ÖVP.
    No idea though what the ÖVP intends to do now. iirc Kurz’s trial started recently. One certainly can’t count him out either, if it’s in any way possible he’ll probably try to re-enter politics and maybe aim at becoming chancellor again at some point later this decade.

  12. @Europe Europa
    Is all that racial classification/phenotype stuff actually a real thing? I mean the types you come across on different forums who try to "classify" people into minute racial categories like Alpinid, Dinarid, Hallstatt, Gracile Med, etc.

    Most of them seem to believe they can pin point what country a person comes from, even what specific region of a country, based purely on their facial features.

    Is there any real basis to this sort of hyper localised racial classification or is it just autistic pseudo-science?

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @silviosilver

    it just autistic pseudo-science?

    Yes it is.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  13. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Funny you'd write about him Emil, I was going to (humorously) reply to your O9A comment on the other thread that "David Myatt did nothing wrong". It made me wonder what had become of the man, and here you are providing some news of the Numenous Way founder.



    https://www.releasemagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/450x450bb.jpg

    Speaking of which, how many angles do you count on this image ?

    https://youtu.be/FgjqFSc1ZEk?feature=shared

    And he was on very friendly terms with the Azov guys.

    Of course, it is easier to be a (pseudo ?) O9A member and live in Lichtenstein, just like it was easier to be a commie in Paris than Moscow...

    🙂

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Emil Nikola Richard

    They did all they could to smear him. But what really matters is what a man becomes in his deepest heart and mind. I think he is doing great spiritually despite their (justified) hatred of him. Many thanks for this interview, Emil. Much appreciated.

  14. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Funny you'd write about him Emil, I was going to (humorously) reply to your O9A comment on the other thread that "David Myatt did nothing wrong". It made me wonder what had become of the man, and here you are providing some news of the Numenous Way founder.



    https://www.releasemagazine.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/450x450bb.jpg

    Speaking of which, how many angles do you count on this image ?

    https://youtu.be/FgjqFSc1ZEk?feature=shared

    And he was on very friendly terms with the Azov guys.

    Of course, it is easier to be a (pseudo ?) O9A member and live in Lichtenstein, just like it was easier to be a commie in Paris than Moscow...

    🙂

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Emil Nikola Richard

    He is living in Australia now. The guy doing the interview also is an Aussie. The interviewer said the war on terrorism laws there prohibit him from linking to any authentic O9A literature. A couple years ago somebody posted on some thread (I believe it was on unz but maybe it was reddit or somewhere else) that they didn’t believe any of that human sacrifice stuff. I linked to the O9A doc where they have the business about 95% of all humans are good for nothing but using for their sacrifice rituals and pointed them to the chapter, page, and verse. Maybe I won’t do that again.

    Have you seen what wikipedia has done with the O9A page? It would really be horrifying if all those crimes weren’t incited by undercover agents. As it is it is pathetic. I saw an interview with Joseph Matheny the other day where he said no left hand path order can have any public facing representation–they just get flooded with the stupidest and most useless people imaginable.

    If you trace it back to ground zero it all goes back to Nietzsche. : )

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I think it has psy ops written large. They create useful monsters and manipulate useful psychopaths/sociopaths.

  15. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    He is living in Australia now. The guy doing the interview also is an Aussie. The interviewer said the war on terrorism laws there prohibit him from linking to any authentic O9A literature. A couple years ago somebody posted on some thread (I believe it was on unz but maybe it was reddit or somewhere else) that they didn't believe any of that human sacrifice stuff. I linked to the O9A doc where they have the business about 95% of all humans are good for nothing but using for their sacrifice rituals and pointed them to the chapter, page, and verse. Maybe I won't do that again.

    Have you seen what wikipedia has done with the O9A page? It would really be horrifying if all those crimes weren't incited by undercover agents. As it is it is pathetic. I saw an interview with Joseph Matheny the other day where he said no left hand path order can have any public facing representation--they just get flooded with the stupidest and most useless people imaginable.

    If you trace it back to ground zero it all goes back to Nietzsche. : )

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    I think it has psy ops written large. They create useful monsters and manipulate useful psychopaths/sociopaths.

    • Agree: S
  16. @A123
    Many Anti-Semites keep asking why there is so little sympathy for the Hamas terrorists who attacked unarmed civilians in Jewish Palestine. This should be a self answering question. Intentionally targeting civilians is inherently unsympathetic.

    Then there was the fraud claiming 500 died in a hospital attack. As soon as the pictures showed up, the fabrication fell apart. The evidence showed no bomb crater and widespread fire damage in the car park. A low quality Iranian rocket misfired and landed there spreading unburnt fuel. It is possible that no one died. It certainly was not 500. No one is believing the bogus claims from Pallywood anymore.

    Genocidal, leftoid groups at educational institutions are also busy wiping out any potential sympathy: (1)

    A pro-Hamas student group at Florida State University recently joined several left-leaning Tallahassee activist organizations to protest against the state of Israel.

    Campus Reform obtained footage of the rally and subsequent speeches.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cO8U2CODs_w

    Members from FSU SDS, along with Tallahassee Community Action Committee (TCAC) and Freedom Road Socialist Organization-Tallahassee, called for the eradication of Israel and Zionism.

    An Instagram announcement for the event was captioned with the phrase, “FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA, PALESTINE WILL BE FREE!”
    ...
    The rally also featured several speakers. The first, identified by Campus Reform as TCAC Communications Director Regina Joseph, opened her speech with a “Black Lives Matter!” chant.

    “The liberation of black people in this country cannot exist until Palestine is free,” Joseph said. “We are in the belly of the beast.” The rest of her speech—much of which was inaudible due to the demonstrators’ muffled audio quality—focused on Israel’s “oppression of Palestine” and America’s “oppression of black people.”
     
    Who wants to be on the same side as BLM?

    Perhaps we should thank the crazy SJW's. They are generating massive sympathy for Israelis.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.campusreform.org/article?id=24253

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @nazirss

    Intentionally targeting civilians is inherently unsympathetic.

    I think that the Algerians who did this in the 1950s and early 1960s got a bit more sympathy from the international community, no? Of course, probably no individual attack of theirs was as brutal as what Hamas did to Israel. And Hamas arguably wants to liberate all of historical Palestine, from the river to the sea, whereas Algerians simply wanted their own independent state in all of Algeria but did not give a rat’s ass about France as an official matter (a lot of their own people did eventually want to move to France later on in pursuit of a better life, though).

  17. @German_reader
    @Hyperborean

    I'm very skeptical that Wagenknecht's party will manage to establish itself as a permanent element of the party system. As I wrote in the last thread
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6222860
    it's essentially a one-woman-show, reliant on Wagenknecht's popularity. The other figures involved with it so far are all also former LINKE politicians, none of whom is especially charismatic or popular (or even particularly well-known in the wider public). Their appeal to anybody but former LINKE voters should be limited. It will also be impossible for them to adopt the hardline stance on immigration that is necessary given how serious the situation is. So I don't think AfD will lose that much to Wagenknecht's party (though the media will do their best to bring about such an outcome, presenting BSW as the "decent" alternative for those dissatisfied with the present establishment).

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Mr. XYZ

    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn’t for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase. Here in the US, I support the Democrats because the Republicans are a clown show and because our Hispanic immigrants aren’t that bad and are in any case more-or-less compensated by the cognitive elites whom we import from the rest of the world. But if I was a European, I’d be more inclined to be in the anti-immigration camp at least as it pertained to (non-cognitively elitist) Muslim (and African) immigration. (The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I’m chill with, just so long as they don’t bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.) But I also wouldn’t want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @Mr. XYZ


    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn’t for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase.

    [...]

    But I also wouldn’t want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.
     

    Either they lose and they all end up in the EU as refugees or they win and later join the EU and gain attendant rights to live anywhere within the EU. Along with some ending up in North America. Either way, Ukraine will be depopulated in a few decades.

    In fact, if you hold this bizarre leech-like mindset, shouldn't you cynically rather prefer for them to lose so they will leave sooner and in heavier numbers. The final fate of Ukraine shouldn't matter if you are only basing your preferences on draining the populations of foreign countries.


    The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I’m chill with, just so long as they don’t bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.
     
    They are part of the chutzpah belt. If you just want a docile, compliant and competent labour force that you can extract every last drop out of, just recruit East Asian and South-East Asian workers instead.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  18. @German_reader

    There’s actually growing evidence that a large fraction of all the Israeli civilians killed in the Hamas attack actually died from the friendly fire of the disorganized and confused Israeli military forces who counter-attacked.
     
    There seems to be a lot of footage showing deliberate killings of Israeli civilians by Hamas fighters. Some apparently of a fairly disturbing nature ( https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/why-israeli-officials-screened-footage-hamas-attack/675735/ ).
    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @yakushimaru, @ShortOnTime

    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.

    IIRC, they initially limited their attacks on civilians to the West Bank and Gaza but later changed their mind about this after Baruch Goldstein’s Hebron massacre and decided to launch attacks on civilians in Israel proper as well.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre

    Two separate suicide bombings took place in April 1994, carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel and launched by Hamas’ Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades in retaliation for the massacre carried out by Goldstein.[37] A total of 8 Israeli civilians were killed and 55 wounded in the first attack, which took place in Afula on 6 April,[38] at the end of the forty-day mourning period for Goldstein’s victims.[39] Six more were killed and 30 injured in Hadera bus station suicide bombing a week later. Those were the first suicide bombings carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel. According to Matti Steinberg, then Shin Bet head’s advisor on Palestinian affairs, Hamas had until then refrained from attacking civilian targets inside Israel, and the change in this policy was a result of Goldstein’s massacre.[40]

    As a side note, the current Israeli government has a Baruch Goldstein admirer in it:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ben-gvir-responds-to-bennett-fine-ill-take-down-baruch-goldsteins-picture/

    Netanyahu wanted him in there so that his right-wing bloc could get an extra Knesset seat or two, which is vital for Netanyahu since the left-wing refuses to be in a coalition with him other than for emergencies (COVID-19 and the current Gaza war) due to Netanyahu’s corruption allegations.

    • Replies: @nazirss
    @Mr. XYZ

    Thats a tacit admission of Israel's existence within 1967 borders. Zionist make big deal about Hamas charter foaming at the mouth and choking with their lies.
    Talmud and OT are the 2 charters that The Zionist use .

    The charters have no borders because goym everywhere is supposed to serve the zionists.

  19. Valery Solovey has announced today that he is 100% certain that Putin has died at 8:40 pm last Thursday, October 26th. He is absolutely adamant about it.

    (In Russian)

    • LOL: LondonBob
    • Replies: @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool

    What the hell is this stuff? It's been floating around for two days now on all the alternative Rus and Ukro YouTube channels. I dismissed it because I thought it was just another mystified BS "report" without any tangible sources. They said last week that Putin had fainted and that he was resuscitated, and now they're all talking about this again. I'm so tired of all the doubles talk, too, without evidence.

    I used to like and trust General SVR, but what is the source? It seemed somewhat believable and trustable and it's understandable that he is protecting them, but how does one know for sure? It could be some kind of an info-operation.

    Btw, Putin has not looked good in the recent half of year or so (looks very drugged, slow, incoherent). And there was a lot of talk about how the elites, especially Patrushev, would deal with it given where things have gone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FMPYSKUry8&t=307s

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @LatW

    , @AP
    @Ivashka the fool

    To continue from the other thread (and thank you sincerely for the discussion!):

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6232732


    As I have already written, I agree that Zoroastrian influence on Judaism was very important.
     
    Indeed. So much so, that they seem to have even adopted the real God from the Persia, and only used their old god's name for Him, as per the other source I had provided.

    https://www.cais-soas.com/CAIS/Religions/non-iranian/Judaism/Persian_Judaism/book2/pt8.htm


    Aryans worshipped him earlier

    Not all Aryans, the Vedic Aryans did not worship Ahura Mazda, quite the opposite, given that Zarathustra had declared the Devas worshipped by the Vedic Aryans and (the more primitive nomadic) Turanian tribes (Scythians) to be demons and enemies of Ahura Mazda.
     

    Agree.

    And this is why I was saying earlier, that the battle between "Dharmics" and "Abrahamics" (if by the latter we mean Christians, and maybe Muslims too if Islam is a twisted cultish heresy rather than a reversion to demon-worship) is not a struggle between Aryan belief system and a Semitic one but an intra-Aryan conflict between the Aryan God of Gods, Light from Light, versus lesser gods/demons.

    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.


    What is interesting, and is closer home for both of us, is that according to some accounts I have read of the early Christian (Ossetian / Alan) Christian missionaries’ activities in Slavic lands (preceding Saints Cyril and Methodius) , the pagan Slavs might have also had some higher form of paganism, along the more ritualistic folk religion. In that higher form of paganism, the Divine Essence would have been equated with the White Light pervading the creation (hence the expression белый свет in modern day Russian). All the gods would have been “incarnations” of that White Light. If that was truly the case (impossible to prove or disprove nowadays), Svyatovit would have been the main “personalisation” of this White Light – a higher God with a certain “universal” outlook about him.
     
    Fascinating indeed. It speaks to the wisdom of our Slavic ancestors. Thank you for that, and for your other links.

    But they would not be incarnations but avatars. An incarnation is made flesh.

    My perhaps idiosyncratic take is that Jesus not only rendered Judaism obsolete and completed it, but he did the same for the Persian faith because, as the incarnation of God, he was also the incarnation of Ahura Mazda who was the same because the Persians taught the Jews to worship Ahura Mazda and to transpose their old deity's name onto Him.* And perhaps also, the incarnation of Sviatovit.

    And in this form, the faith finally vanquished that of the pagan Greeks who had defeated the Persians. And later, destroyed the demon-worship in the New World.

    *The other side of that coin is that the Avesta probably offers wisdom as worthy as that of the Old Testament.

    Replies: @Sher Singh

  20. Guess I am naive, but I had no idea that Buenos Aires had slums like this:

    [MORE]

    And Indigo Traveler got food poisoning or something, and only did one episode. I don’t recall that ever happening before, though I probably haven’t seen all his stuff.

    I wonder what percentage of these slum dwellers are natives vs. from lower latitude parts of South America.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @songbird


    I wonder what percentage of these slum dwellers are natives vs. from lower latitude parts of South America.
     
    Vast and growing numbers, and it's not a recent phenomenon. Argentina has, completely unsurprisingly, taken the delusional "anti-racist" approach to the issue.

    And technically, they're arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes. A term often employed to describe the slum inhabitants - "boliguayos" - should tip you off about their origin.

    Replies: @songbird

  21. @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader

    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn't for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase. Here in the US, I support the Democrats because the Republicans are a clown show and because our Hispanic immigrants aren't that bad and are in any case more-or-less compensated by the cognitive elites whom we import from the rest of the world. But if I was a European, I'd be more inclined to be in the anti-immigration camp at least as it pertained to (non-cognitively elitist) Muslim (and African) immigration. (The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I'm chill with, just so long as they don't bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.) But I also wouldn't want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.

    Replies: @Hyperborean

    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn’t for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase.

    […]

    But I also wouldn’t want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.

    Either they lose and they all end up in the EU as refugees or they win and later join the EU and gain attendant rights to live anywhere within the EU. Along with some ending up in North America. Either way, Ukraine will be depopulated in a few decades.

    In fact, if you hold this bizarre leech-like mindset, shouldn’t you cynically rather prefer for them to lose so they will leave sooner and in heavier numbers. The final fate of Ukraine shouldn’t matter if you are only basing your preferences on draining the populations of foreign countries.

    The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I’m chill with, just so long as they don’t bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.

    They are part of the chutzpah belt. If you just want a docile, compliant and competent labour force that you can extract every last drop out of, just recruit East Asian and South-East Asian workers instead.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Hyperborean


    In fact, if you hold this bizarre leech-like mindset, shouldn’t you cynically rather prefer for them to lose so they will leave sooner and in heavier numbers. The final fate of Ukraine shouldn’t matter if you are only basing your preferences on draining the populations of foreign countries.
     
    I do want the Ukrainian state to be preserved, though. (It would be a great addition to the EU's multicultural mosaic.) And in any case, I want all of them (minus the ones who will move to the US, Canada, Israel, etc) to end up in the EU rather than simply a large percentage of them.

    They are part of the chutzpah belt. If you just want a docile, compliant and competent labour force that you can extract every last drop out of, just recruit East Asian and South-East Asian workers instead.
     
    Importing them sounds great as well, but I also love curry and samosas, you know? ;)
  22. @German_reader

    There’s actually growing evidence that a large fraction of all the Israeli civilians killed in the Hamas attack actually died from the friendly fire of the disorganized and confused Israeli military forces who counter-attacked.
     
    There seems to be a lot of footage showing deliberate killings of Israeli civilians by Hamas fighters. Some apparently of a fairly disturbing nature ( https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/why-israeli-officials-screened-footage-hamas-attack/675735/ ).
    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @yakushimaru, @ShortOnTime

    Morality is a luxury of civilization. War gradually drives everyone into a frenzy. Very soon we ourselves will become savages. The escalation is still going strong.

  23. @Hyperborean
    @Mr. XYZ


    FWIW, my own main beef with AfD is their anti-Ukraine stance. If it wasn’t for that, the odds of me personally supporting them would significantly increase.

    [...]

    But I also wouldn’t want to throw Ukraine under the bus and indeed would view Ukraine as a valuable reservoir of European human capital for the EU for the future.
     

    Either they lose and they all end up in the EU as refugees or they win and later join the EU and gain attendant rights to live anywhere within the EU. Along with some ending up in North America. Either way, Ukraine will be depopulated in a few decades.

    In fact, if you hold this bizarre leech-like mindset, shouldn't you cynically rather prefer for them to lose so they will leave sooner and in heavier numbers. The final fate of Ukraine shouldn't matter if you are only basing your preferences on draining the populations of foreign countries.


    The Hindus and Sikhs in places like Britain, I’m chill with, just so long as they don’t bring over their caste prejudices to their new countries.
     
    They are part of the chutzpah belt. If you just want a docile, compliant and competent labour force that you can extract every last drop out of, just recruit East Asian and South-East Asian workers instead.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    In fact, if you hold this bizarre leech-like mindset, shouldn’t you cynically rather prefer for them to lose so they will leave sooner and in heavier numbers. The final fate of Ukraine shouldn’t matter if you are only basing your preferences on draining the populations of foreign countries.

    I do want the Ukrainian state to be preserved, though. (It would be a great addition to the EU’s multicultural mosaic.) And in any case, I want all of them (minus the ones who will move to the US, Canada, Israel, etc) to end up in the EU rather than simply a large percentage of them.

    They are part of the chutzpah belt. If you just want a docile, compliant and competent labour force that you can extract every last drop out of, just recruit East Asian and South-East Asian workers instead.

    Importing them sounds great as well, but I also love curry and samosas, you know? 😉

  24. How come there aren’t any really big kibbutzes? Something like an arcology. I don’t mean an entire self-sufficient material economy in a a cubic mile box, but more like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.

    Seems like Jews have been running multiple instances of group living experiments for quite a number of years, but it has never really turned sci-fi, or been able to scale up past a certain point.

    Is it Dunbar’s number?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @songbird

    I think it could be a culture preference of Ashkenazi Jews and it could relate to their history in Europe living in small villages.

    They don't build exactly real European cities in Israel, it's generally more like chains of villages and small cities. While the skyscrapers are like a separate "office zone".

    -

    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.

    -

    * There is the origin house and village of Shimon Peres (former president of Israel) in Belarus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8Su7eZJ6lY

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @A123
    @songbird


    How come there aren’t any really big kibbutzes?
    ...
    like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.
     
    The original concept was a farm commune. Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.

    Communes are also generally quite small. For everyone to know everyone, how many members can there be? 200-300 people would be normal. How many kibbutz have over 1,000 population? It can only be a handful.

    Religious rules also play against the idea. Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath. Short buildings sometimes have an automatic elevator stop at every floor with a tolerable cycle time. Dealing with that idea in a tall building would be tedious.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  25. Ariane Space apparently has this hybrid sailing ship to transport rockets to Guyana.

    https://www.ariane.group/en/news/ariane-6-cargo-ship-canopee-spreads-its-wings/

    Did Greta design it?

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    That is the most atrocious web site design I have seen in six months.

    Gack.

  26. @songbird
    How come there aren't any really big kibbutzes? Something like an arcology. I don't mean an entire self-sufficient material economy in a a cubic mile box, but more like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.

    Seems like Jews have been running multiple instances of group living experiments for quite a number of years, but it has never really turned sci-fi, or been able to scale up past a certain point.

    Is it Dunbar's number?

    Replies: @Dmitry, @A123

    I think it could be a culture preference of Ashkenazi Jews and it could relate to their history in Europe living in small villages.

    They don’t build exactly real European cities in Israel, it’s generally more like chains of villages and small cities. While the skyscrapers are like a separate “office zone”.

    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.

    * There is the origin house and village of Shimon Peres (former president of Israel) in Belarus.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.
     
    So, one can say that the shtetls were the biggest obstacle to Jewish modernity and assimilation.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  27. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    I think it could be a culture preference of Ashkenazi Jews and it could relate to their history in Europe living in small villages.

    They don't build exactly real European cities in Israel, it's generally more like chains of villages and small cities. While the skyscrapers are like a separate "office zone".

    -

    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.

    -

    * There is the origin house and village of Shimon Peres (former president of Israel) in Belarus.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8Su7eZJ6lY

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.

    So, one can say that the shtetls were the biggest obstacle to Jewish modernity and assimilation.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    In the late 19th century, a portion of Jews who were beginning to exit the village life to live in European cities, were losing most of their separate identity from the descendants of the Christian burghers.

    In America, maybe the nostalgia for the village heritage in Ukraine was still existing when "Fiddler on the Roof" is popular in 1960s Broadway, in Manhattan, New York.

    Paintings of Chagall is another nostalgia of villages in Belarus.

    -

    In my opinion in Israel, we could say a proportion of the Jewish population still live in partly cultural recreation of the old villages. Although with less mud and rain, more palm trees and pogromists with the Islamist theme.

    This is not only in the villages there. I also think this is the part of the shabby/hipster Tel Aviv atmosphere in the Ashkenazi areas of the city. It's not only because the collapsing village style of buildings.

    It doesn't feel like a "big city" there. It feels like a small village atmosphere.

    When he enters a Ashkenazi/residents' parts of the city at 27:00 It's like a 19th century village festival atmosphere which Sholem Aleichem would probably not feel so distant, except without the mud.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co8bDzlzUME


    And this "village atmosphere" is more strong in the Haredi areas like Bnei Brak where they are speaking Yiddish.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ

  28. @songbird
    Ariane Space apparently has this hybrid sailing ship to transport rockets to Guyana.

    https://www.ariane.group/en/news/ariane-6-cargo-ship-canopee-spreads-its-wings/

    Did Greta design it?

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    That is the most atrocious web site design I have seen in six months.

    Gack.

  29. @songbird
    How come there aren't any really big kibbutzes? Something like an arcology. I don't mean an entire self-sufficient material economy in a a cubic mile box, but more like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.

    Seems like Jews have been running multiple instances of group living experiments for quite a number of years, but it has never really turned sci-fi, or been able to scale up past a certain point.

    Is it Dunbar's number?

    Replies: @Dmitry, @A123

    How come there aren’t any really big kibbutzes?

    like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.

    The original concept was a farm commune. Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.

    Communes are also generally quite small. For everyone to know everyone, how many members can there be? 200-300 people would be normal. How many kibbutz have over 1,000 population? It can only be a handful.

    Religious rules also play against the idea. Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath. Short buildings sometimes have an automatic elevator stop at every floor with a tolerable cycle time. Dealing with that idea in a tall building would be tedious.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123


    Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.
     
    Technically LEDS and hydroponics, though the economics of such systems are a limiting factor.

    But I believe we can say that some have high tech or manufacturing and agriculture is not necessarily needed as a central factor.

    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.
     
    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.

    IMO, the society that cracks high-density tribalized living could dominate the globe, by conquering Northern climates that would otherwise be too unpleasant for most people. Indoor parks and public spaces. Energy-efficient heating. No commute to work.

    @Emil
    It is poor, but I have seen worse. Hard to read because they picked the wrong colors with little contrast.

    Replies: @A123

  30. @Europe Europa
    Is all that racial classification/phenotype stuff actually a real thing? I mean the types you come across on different forums who try to "classify" people into minute racial categories like Alpinid, Dinarid, Hallstatt, Gracile Med, etc.

    Most of them seem to believe they can pin point what country a person comes from, even what specific region of a country, based purely on their facial features.

    Is there any real basis to this sort of hyper localised racial classification or is it just autistic pseudo-science?

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @silviosilver

    I mean the types you come across on different forums who try to “classify” people into minute racial categories like Alpinid, Dinarid, Hallstatt, Gracile Med, etc.

    Race is a continuum and racial relatedness (more related/less related) is a fact, so by the time you cross from Britain to Bulgaria, you encounter pretty obvious racial differentiation, but this “racial types” stuff is mostly nonsense. Even the same person “categorizing” the same set of pics (which is all they have to work with) a month apart will result in different categorizations. Informal tests that have been run on those sites reveal that people who claim they can demonstrate little ability to predict which ethnicities individuals or crowds belong to simply based on appearance.

  31. @songbird
    Guess I am naive, but I had no idea that Buenos Aires had slums like this:
    https://youtu.be/_jkdqjfK6XE?si=JKSkoR1EON_fqzXl

    And Indigo Traveler got food poisoning or something, and only did one episode. I don't recall that ever happening before, though I probably haven't seen all his stuff.

    I wonder what percentage of these slum dwellers are natives vs. from lower latitude parts of South America.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    I wonder what percentage of these slum dwellers are natives vs. from lower latitude parts of South America.

    Vast and growing numbers, and it’s not a recent phenomenon. Argentina has, completely unsurprisingly, taken the delusional “anti-racist” approach to the issue.

    And technically, they’re arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes. A term often employed to describe the slum inhabitants – “boliguayos” – should tip you off about their origin.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @silviosilver


    And technically, they’re arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes
     
    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)

    Seems similar in Chile. Perhaps in Uruguay? But I don't know.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don't mind telling.

    Seems to me that Chinese sometimes have more exoticism on their face (I suspect this is more true of the South). And I attribute it to incomplete Sinicization of diverse tribes.

    Replies: @silviosilver

  32. @A123
    @songbird


    How come there aren’t any really big kibbutzes?
    ...
    like a big skyscraper or highrise or something.
     
    The original concept was a farm commune. Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.

    Communes are also generally quite small. For everyone to know everyone, how many members can there be? 200-300 people would be normal. How many kibbutz have over 1,000 population? It can only be a handful.

    Religious rules also play against the idea. Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath. Short buildings sometimes have an automatic elevator stop at every floor with a tolerable cycle time. Dealing with that idea in a tall building would be tedious.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.

    Technically LEDS and hydroponics, though the economics of such systems are a limiting factor.

    [MORE]

    But I believe we can say that some have high tech or manufacturing and agriculture is not necessarily needed as a central factor.

    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.

    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.

    IMO, the society that cracks high-density tribalized living could dominate the globe, by conquering Northern climates that would otherwise be too unpleasant for most people. Indoor parks and public spaces. Energy-efficient heating. No commute to work.

    @Emil
    It is poor, but I have seen worse. Hard to read because they picked the wrong colors with little contrast.

    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird



    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.
     
    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.
     
    I suspect that using voice commands to instruct machinery would be equally prohibited as "work". The automatic elevator runs regardless of anyone's presence. Walking into something that would have moved anyway apparently qualifies as "not work"as there is no instruction given on the day. Do not ask me to explain why the rules are crafted this way....

    The larger factor is that kibbutz communes are too low in population to need or want high density residential towers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @silviosilver

  33. @silviosilver
    @songbird


    I wonder what percentage of these slum dwellers are natives vs. from lower latitude parts of South America.
     
    Vast and growing numbers, and it's not a recent phenomenon. Argentina has, completely unsurprisingly, taken the delusional "anti-racist" approach to the issue.

    And technically, they're arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes. A term often employed to describe the slum inhabitants - "boliguayos" - should tip you off about their origin.

    Replies: @songbird

    And technically, they’re arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes

    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)

    Seems similar in Chile. Perhaps in Uruguay? But I don’t know.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don’t mind telling.

    Seems to me that Chinese sometimes have more exoticism on their face (I suspect this is more true of the South). And I attribute it to incomplete Sinicization of diverse tribes.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @songbird


    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)
     
    Well, the south pole is -90 degrees, and mathematically 0 > (-90), so countries north of Argentina lie at higher latitudes, but in terms of absolute value, or just in terns of latitude South and latitude North, okay, your logic makes sense.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don’t mind telling.
     
    If you mean wrt to attractiveness, not much. Not my thing at all.

    I'm not really sure what "exoticism" means in this respect. Do you mean they appear more variegated than Japanese and Koreans?

    Replies: @songbird

  34. @Ivashka the fool
    Valery Solovey has announced today that he is 100% certain that Putin has died at 8:40 pm last Thursday, October 26th. He is absolutely adamant about it.

    https://youtu.be/DEfPyMCm8_A?feature=shared

    (In Russian)

    Replies: @LatW, @AP

    What the hell is this stuff? It’s been floating around for two days now on all the alternative Rus and Ukro YouTube channels. I dismissed it because I thought it was just another mystified BS “report” without any tangible sources. They said last week that Putin had fainted and that he was resuscitated, and now they’re all talking about this again. I’m so tired of all the doubles talk, too, without evidence.

    I used to like and trust General SVR, but what is the source? It seemed somewhat believable and trustable and it’s understandable that he is protecting them, but how does one know for sure? It could be some kind of an info-operation.

    Btw, Putin has not looked good in the recent half of year or so (looks very drugged, slow, incoherent). And there was a lot of talk about how the elites, especially Patrushev, would deal with it given where things have gone.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @LatW

    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?

    Pledging allegiance to the Ukraine in 2022 might be the single stupidest action in American history. And we have had a number of doozies. OK declaring war on Virginia et al was measurably stupider, but that one's ramifications are all completely baked in now as it was 160 years ago. This one could be even stupider than that.

    Replies: @LatW

    , @LatW
    @LatW

    Are there any trustworthy sources who can access Valdai now?

  35. Want to modify my opinion on skunks very slightly: it can be slightly alarming to see them walking towards you with the dew dripping from their mouth.

  36. @songbird
    @A123


    Agriculture requires sunshine, rain, etc.
     
    Technically LEDS and hydroponics, though the economics of such systems are a limiting factor.

    But I believe we can say that some have high tech or manufacturing and agriculture is not necessarily needed as a central factor.

    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.
     
    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.

    IMO, the society that cracks high-density tribalized living could dominate the globe, by conquering Northern climates that would otherwise be too unpleasant for most people. Indoor parks and public spaces. Energy-efficient heating. No commute to work.

    @Emil
    It is poor, but I have seen worse. Hard to read because they picked the wrong colors with little contrast.

    Replies: @A123

    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.

    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.

    I suspect that using voice commands to instruct machinery would be equally prohibited as “work”. The automatic elevator runs regardless of anyone’s presence. Walking into something that would have moved anyway apparently qualifies as “not work”as there is no instruction given on the day. Do not ask me to explain why the rules are crafted this way….

    The larger factor is that kibbutz communes are too low in population to need or want high density residential towers.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @A123


    I suspect that using voice commands to instruct machinery would be equally prohibited as “work”.
     
    What if the elevator were activated by saying out loud "It is the Sabbath and one must not 'work' to reach the 4th floor"? Then perhaps someone could step in after you and announce "Nor must one work to reach the 3rd floor!"
  37. @songbird
    @silviosilver


    And technically, they’re arriving from higher (not lower) latitudes
     
    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)

    Seems similar in Chile. Perhaps in Uruguay? But I don't know.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don't mind telling.

    Seems to me that Chinese sometimes have more exoticism on their face (I suspect this is more true of the South). And I attribute it to incomplete Sinicization of diverse tribes.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)

    Well, the south pole is -90 degrees, and mathematically 0 > (-90), so countries north of Argentina lie at higher latitudes, but in terms of absolute value, or just in terns of latitude South and latitude North, okay, your logic makes sense.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don’t mind telling.

    If you mean wrt to attractiveness, not much. Not my thing at all.

    I’m not really sure what “exoticism” means in this respect. Do you mean they appear more variegated than Japanese and Koreans?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @silviosilver


    Well, the south pole is -90 degrees, and mathematically 0 > (-90), so countries north of Argentina lie at higher latitudes,
     
    You make a good point, and I can kind of see what you're saying. I have here before quoted the poetic expression:
    Below 40 degrees south there is no law; below 50 degrees south there is no God

    Which almost seems to be in line with what you're saying.

    But I feel like "low latitudes" is a nautical, geographic, or metereological English term, with a certain meaning, relating to being closer to the Equator. (Maybe, I picked it up from reading nautical books?)

    I've seen pictures that seem to agree with me, but am horrible at linking images.


    If you mean wrt to attractiveness, not much. Not my thing at all.
     
    I feel it might be a bit hard for me to make a proper comparison because I feel more naturally attracted to a cohesive society than a multicultural one. Even one black in a group shot of Europeans can fill me with a sense of foreboding.

    Idealized top pick on an individual level would definitely be European of a similar type to me.

    But on the whole I think Asians are thinner, more introverted and more feminine in behavior. Very seldom do you ever see one with a tattoo. I think Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and even Vietnamese women can be quite attractive.

    But hearing hapas talk can be kind of disturbing sometimes, so ultimately probably better not to mix.


    I’m not really sure what “exoticism” means in this respect. Do you mean they appear more variegated than Japanese and Koreans?

     

    Yes, I would go so far as to say some look more alien.
  38. @A123
    @songbird



    Pushing elevator buttons is prohibited on the Sabbath.
     
    I should think this could be handled by voice recognition.
     
    I suspect that using voice commands to instruct machinery would be equally prohibited as "work". The automatic elevator runs regardless of anyone's presence. Walking into something that would have moved anyway apparently qualifies as "not work"as there is no instruction given on the day. Do not ask me to explain why the rules are crafted this way....

    The larger factor is that kibbutz communes are too low in population to need or want high density residential towers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @silviosilver

    I suspect that using voice commands to instruct machinery would be equally prohibited as “work”.

    What if the elevator were activated by saying out loud “It is the Sabbath and one must not ‘work’ to reach the 4th floor”? Then perhaps someone could step in after you and announce “Nor must one work to reach the 3rd floor!”

    • LOL: A123
  39. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool

    What the hell is this stuff? It's been floating around for two days now on all the alternative Rus and Ukro YouTube channels. I dismissed it because I thought it was just another mystified BS "report" without any tangible sources. They said last week that Putin had fainted and that he was resuscitated, and now they're all talking about this again. I'm so tired of all the doubles talk, too, without evidence.

    I used to like and trust General SVR, but what is the source? It seemed somewhat believable and trustable and it's understandable that he is protecting them, but how does one know for sure? It could be some kind of an info-operation.

    Btw, Putin has not looked good in the recent half of year or so (looks very drugged, slow, incoherent). And there was a lot of talk about how the elites, especially Patrushev, would deal with it given where things have gone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FMPYSKUry8&t=307s

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @LatW

    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?

    Pledging allegiance to the Ukraine in 2022 might be the single stupidest action in American history. And we have had a number of doozies. OK declaring war on Virginia et al was measurably stupider, but that one’s ramifications are all completely baked in now as it was 160 years ago. This one could be even stupider than that.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?
     
    They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They're stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.

    This one could be even stupider than that.
     

    You shouldn't blame only America, it's all part of the historic process which is slow. Until it's not. We are all interconnected now, as Jake Sullivan recently wrote.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Europe Europa

  40. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool

    What the hell is this stuff? It's been floating around for two days now on all the alternative Rus and Ukro YouTube channels. I dismissed it because I thought it was just another mystified BS "report" without any tangible sources. They said last week that Putin had fainted and that he was resuscitated, and now they're all talking about this again. I'm so tired of all the doubles talk, too, without evidence.

    I used to like and trust General SVR, but what is the source? It seemed somewhat believable and trustable and it's understandable that he is protecting them, but how does one know for sure? It could be some kind of an info-operation.

    Btw, Putin has not looked good in the recent half of year or so (looks very drugged, slow, incoherent). And there was a lot of talk about how the elites, especially Patrushev, would deal with it given where things have gone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FMPYSKUry8&t=307s

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @LatW

    Are there any trustworthy sources who can access Valdai now?

  41. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @LatW

    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?

    Pledging allegiance to the Ukraine in 2022 might be the single stupidest action in American history. And we have had a number of doozies. OK declaring war on Virginia et al was measurably stupider, but that one's ramifications are all completely baked in now as it was 160 years ago. This one could be even stupider than that.

    Replies: @LatW

    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?

    They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.

    This one could be even stupider than that.

    You shouldn’t blame only America, it’s all part of the historic process which is slow. Until it’s not. We are all interconnected now, as Jake Sullivan recently wrote.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @LatW


    Russians...They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.
     
    That is a description of a generic modern woman. You are really into projecting...

    To translate: romantic passionate women can also be gold-diggers, can act modestly and even passively, but there is a danger there...with enough skill and some luck it can be overcomed...

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia. This new bunch of enthusiasts is free to try. They seem a lot weaker than the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians...but this time they have a head start since Russia was lethargic for a long time. We should never say never and they have better propaganda skills...Still, it will most likely fail miserably in a bloody inferno.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    , @Europe Europa
    @LatW

    I think Russia as a country/culture definitely likes to play up to the "superhuman crazy man" thing as an intimidation psyop. Although I think it's taken a big hit after the Ukraine invasion, Westerners are starting to realise they can indeed be killed and in huge numbers.

  42. I don’t have any hard data, but it really appears to me that the pro Palestine demonstrations are much bigger in the West than they are in the Arab/Islamic world. Also, while I don’t doubt that Muslims are hurting very badly witnessing these events, in terms of sheer rage I feel like Western leftists are substantially angrier about what’s going on than the Muslims are. Since leftists are inherently violent, I can’t see any way that Western leftists don’t start launching terrorist attacks against Jews in Western countries should this war continue.

    The intensity of the anger on the part of Western leftists is like nothing I’ve ever seen. They are REALLY pissed. What is even more surprising to me is that they don’t appear to be calming down. If anything, they are more angry now than they were last week. Usually I can understand how other people think, even when I don’t agree with them. But in this case I have to admit that I simply don’t get why Western leftists are so passionate about this cause. The far right I would understand, but not the far left.

    That the far right in Western countries has not been able to effectively rally to the Palestinian cause I view as less of a sign that the far right is indifferent to the Palestinians than as a sign that the far right has completely lost any political relevance it ever had, and no longer even truly exists. I mean, if we are going to call Front National and AfD “far right”, then the term has essentially lost all meaning.

    Another interesting thing I’ve observed is some people on the far left who had been strong supporters of Ukraine are now switching over to backing Russia. This is because they instinctively understand that only Russia can save the Palestinians.

    Whether you sympathize with the Palestinians or not, I don’t think that there can be any question that they have been afflicted with the worst group of supporters any nation could fear to have. I’m sure the Palestinians appreciate the Muslim support but seeing the Palestine solidarity marches in places like London or San Francisco must be horrendously demoralizing for any Palestinian to witness.

    But I guess that’s what they get for being Satanic subhumans.

    By the way, if this war isn’t over soon, Biden can forget about getting re-elected. There are 10s of millions of Democrats who will not vote for Joe if this round of violence continues. Biden’s approval is already tanking because so much of his base is against his support for Israel.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Greasy William


    ....if this war isn’t over soon, Biden can forget about getting re-elected.
     
    A year is a long time. But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.

    People now live a very long time and the elites try to hold on forever. The generational splits have become massive. When Biden talks it is like a great-grandpa from mid-to-late-20th century applying the little he ever knew in a completely changed world. These are not the same people - even ethnically they are very different.

    Year from now the world will be changed. Motus in fine velocior...and the old guys can't keep up. It is sad to watch them try...

    Replies: @Greasy William

  43. @A123
    Many Anti-Semites keep asking why there is so little sympathy for the Hamas terrorists who attacked unarmed civilians in Jewish Palestine. This should be a self answering question. Intentionally targeting civilians is inherently unsympathetic.

    Then there was the fraud claiming 500 died in a hospital attack. As soon as the pictures showed up, the fabrication fell apart. The evidence showed no bomb crater and widespread fire damage in the car park. A low quality Iranian rocket misfired and landed there spreading unburnt fuel. It is possible that no one died. It certainly was not 500. No one is believing the bogus claims from Pallywood anymore.

    Genocidal, leftoid groups at educational institutions are also busy wiping out any potential sympathy: (1)

    A pro-Hamas student group at Florida State University recently joined several left-leaning Tallahassee activist organizations to protest against the state of Israel.

    Campus Reform obtained footage of the rally and subsequent speeches.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cO8U2CODs_w

    Members from FSU SDS, along with Tallahassee Community Action Committee (TCAC) and Freedom Road Socialist Organization-Tallahassee, called for the eradication of Israel and Zionism.

    An Instagram announcement for the event was captioned with the phrase, “FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA, PALESTINE WILL BE FREE!”
    ...
    The rally also featured several speakers. The first, identified by Campus Reform as TCAC Communications Director Regina Joseph, opened her speech with a “Black Lives Matter!” chant.

    “The liberation of black people in this country cannot exist until Palestine is free,” Joseph said. “We are in the belly of the beast.” The rest of her speech—much of which was inaudible due to the demonstrators’ muffled audio quality—focused on Israel’s “oppression of Palestine” and America’s “oppression of black people.”
     
    Who wants to be on the same side as BLM?

    Perhaps we should thank the crazy SJW's. They are generating massive sympathy for Israelis.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.campusreform.org/article?id=24253

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @nazirss

    https://www.rt.com/news/586065-israel-doxxing-truck-swat-raid/

    Accuracy in media , Ben Shapiro, Nick Hailey , De Santis, Israeli president Herzog are the foxes guarding the hen house .

    What have you heard from Kristol, Dennis Ross, Feith, FDD,ADL. and Jackson society lately?

  44. @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader


    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.
     
    IIRC, they initially limited their attacks on civilians to the West Bank and Gaza but later changed their mind about this after Baruch Goldstein's Hebron massacre and decided to launch attacks on civilians in Israel proper as well.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre

    Two separate suicide bombings took place in April 1994, carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel and launched by Hamas' Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades in retaliation for the massacre carried out by Goldstein.[37] A total of 8 Israeli civilians were killed and 55 wounded in the first attack, which took place in Afula on 6 April,[38] at the end of the forty-day mourning period for Goldstein's victims.[39] Six more were killed and 30 injured in Hadera bus station suicide bombing a week later. Those were the first suicide bombings carried out by Palestinian militants inside Israel. According to Matti Steinberg, then Shin Bet head's advisor on Palestinian affairs, Hamas had until then refrained from attacking civilian targets inside Israel, and the change in this policy was a result of Goldstein's massacre.[40]
     
    As a side note, the current Israeli government has a Baruch Goldstein admirer in it:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ben-gvir-responds-to-bennett-fine-ill-take-down-baruch-goldsteins-picture/

    Netanyahu wanted him in there so that his right-wing bloc could get an extra Knesset seat or two, which is vital for Netanyahu since the left-wing refuses to be in a coalition with him other than for emergencies (COVID-19 and the current Gaza war) due to Netanyahu's corruption allegations.

    Replies: @nazirss

    Thats a tacit admission of Israel’s existence within 1967 borders. Zionist make big deal about Hamas charter foaming at the mouth and choking with their lies.
    Talmud and OT are the 2 charters that The Zionist use .

    The charters have no borders because goym everywhere is supposed to serve the zionists.

  45. @Greasy William
    I don't have any hard data, but it really appears to me that the pro Palestine demonstrations are much bigger in the West than they are in the Arab/Islamic world. Also, while I don't doubt that Muslims are hurting very badly witnessing these events, in terms of sheer rage I feel like Western leftists are substantially angrier about what's going on than the Muslims are. Since leftists are inherently violent, I can't see any way that Western leftists don't start launching terrorist attacks against Jews in Western countries should this war continue.

    The intensity of the anger on the part of Western leftists is like nothing I've ever seen. They are REALLY pissed. What is even more surprising to me is that they don't appear to be calming down. If anything, they are more angry now than they were last week. Usually I can understand how other people think, even when I don't agree with them. But in this case I have to admit that I simply don't get why Western leftists are so passionate about this cause. The far right I would understand, but not the far left.

    That the far right in Western countries has not been able to effectively rally to the Palestinian cause I view as less of a sign that the far right is indifferent to the Palestinians than as a sign that the far right has completely lost any political relevance it ever had, and no longer even truly exists. I mean, if we are going to call Front National and AfD "far right", then the term has essentially lost all meaning.

    Another interesting thing I've observed is some people on the far left who had been strong supporters of Ukraine are now switching over to backing Russia. This is because they instinctively understand that only Russia can save the Palestinians.

    Whether you sympathize with the Palestinians or not, I don't think that there can be any question that they have been afflicted with the worst group of supporters any nation could fear to have. I'm sure the Palestinians appreciate the Muslim support but seeing the Palestine solidarity marches in places like London or San Francisco must be horrendously demoralizing for any Palestinian to witness.

    But I guess that's what they get for being Satanic subhumans.

    By the way, if this war isn't over soon, Biden can forget about getting re-elected. There are 10s of millions of Democrats who will not vote for Joe if this round of violence continues. Biden's approval is already tanking because so much of his base is against his support for Israel.

    Replies: @Beckow

    ….if this war isn’t over soon, Biden can forget about getting re-elected.

    A year is a long time. But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.

    People now live a very long time and the elites try to hold on forever. The generational splits have become massive. When Biden talks it is like a great-grandpa from mid-to-late-20th century applying the little he ever knew in a completely changed world. These are not the same people – even ethnically they are very different.

    Year from now the world will be changed. Motus in fine velocior…and the old guys can’t keep up. It is sad to watch them try…

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Beckow


    But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.
     
    I think Gaza's population could be physically exterminated in a week if Bibi gave the order, given that they are so tightly packed and they are already in the early stages of death by starvation/dehydration. Obviously it would need to happen while the world's attention was distracted elsewhere.

    Killing all the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, as well as those inside the Green Line and in the refugee camps of Lebanon and Syria would take months though, I agree.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

  46. @LatW
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?
     
    They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They're stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.

    This one could be even stupider than that.
     

    You shouldn't blame only America, it's all part of the historic process which is slow. Until it's not. We are all interconnected now, as Jake Sullivan recently wrote.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Europe Europa

    Russians…They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.

    That is a description of a generic modern woman. You are really into projecting…

    To translate: romantic passionate women can also be gold-diggers, can act modestly and even passively, but there is a danger there…with enough skill and some luck it can be overcomed…

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia. This new bunch of enthusiasts is free to try. They seem a lot weaker than the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians…but this time they have a head start since Russia was lethargic for a long time. We should never say never and they have better propaganda skills…Still, it will most likely fail miserably in a bloody inferno.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Beckow

    Both of you are showing a lot of false consciousness.

    Back to the books!

    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/index.htm

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Zentralbibliothek_Z%C3%BCrich_Das_Kapital_Marx_1867.jpg

    , @Philip Owen
    @Beckow

    British wins against Russia, including proxies.

    1608-14 especially 1612-14, Time of Troubles, Romanovs installed; 1801, the invasion of India; other obscure naval battles pre 1812; 1856, the Crimean War; 1877-78, Russo-Turkish War; scuffles in Central Asia; 1905, Russo-Japanese war; the Cold War. I can't recall a war Russia won against Britain. 1919 was not intended as conquest. There was nothing to fight about. Kerensky had already gone.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

  47. @LatW
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    You do know that Russians can be a little crazy, right?
     
    They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They're stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.

    This one could be even stupider than that.
     

    You shouldn't blame only America, it's all part of the historic process which is slow. Until it's not. We are all interconnected now, as Jake Sullivan recently wrote.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Europe Europa

    I think Russia as a country/culture definitely likes to play up to the “superhuman crazy man” thing as an intimidation psyop. Although I think it’s taken a big hit after the Ukraine invasion, Westerners are starting to realise they can indeed be killed and in huge numbers.

  48. @silviosilver
    @songbird


    Low= lower number= nearer the equator (or such is my logic)
     
    Well, the south pole is -90 degrees, and mathematically 0 > (-90), so countries north of Argentina lie at higher latitudes, but in terms of absolute value, or just in terns of latitude South and latitude North, okay, your logic makes sense.

    BTW, what do you think of Japanese and Korean broads? If you don’t mind telling.
     
    If you mean wrt to attractiveness, not much. Not my thing at all.

    I'm not really sure what "exoticism" means in this respect. Do you mean they appear more variegated than Japanese and Koreans?

    Replies: @songbird

    Well, the south pole is -90 degrees, and mathematically 0 > (-90), so countries north of Argentina lie at higher latitudes,

    You make a good point, and I can kind of see what you’re saying. I have here before quoted the poetic expression:
    Below 40 degrees south there is no law; below 50 degrees south there is no God

    Which almost seems to be in line with what you’re saying.

    [MORE]

    But I feel like “low latitudes” is a nautical, geographic, or metereological English term, with a certain meaning, relating to being closer to the Equator. (Maybe, I picked it up from reading nautical books?)

    I’ve seen pictures that seem to agree with me, but am horrible at linking images.

    If you mean wrt to attractiveness, not much. Not my thing at all.

    I feel it might be a bit hard for me to make a proper comparison because I feel more naturally attracted to a cohesive society than a multicultural one. Even one black in a group shot of Europeans can fill me with a sense of foreboding.

    Idealized top pick on an individual level would definitely be European of a similar type to me.

    But on the whole I think Asians are thinner, more introverted and more feminine in behavior. Very seldom do you ever see one with a tattoo. I think Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and even Vietnamese women can be quite attractive.

    But hearing hapas talk can be kind of disturbing sometimes, so ultimately probably better not to mix.

    I’m not really sure what “exoticism” means in this respect. Do you mean they appear more variegated than Japanese and Koreans?

    Yes, I would go so far as to say some look more alien.

  49. @Beckow
    @LatW


    Russians...They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.
     
    That is a description of a generic modern woman. You are really into projecting...

    To translate: romantic passionate women can also be gold-diggers, can act modestly and even passively, but there is a danger there...with enough skill and some luck it can be overcomed...

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia. This new bunch of enthusiasts is free to try. They seem a lot weaker than the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians...but this time they have a head start since Russia was lethargic for a long time. We should never say never and they have better propaganda skills...Still, it will most likely fail miserably in a bloody inferno.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia

    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” – lol.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @AP

    They didn't even win against Finland really.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    Replies: @AP

    , @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Yes, it certainly seems that Beckow has fallen off of his rocker once again! :-)

    , @Beckow
    @AP

    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self. Obviously the triffles like Poland don't matter - I was clearly referring to the Euro-civilizational attacks on Russia: Poles in 17th century, Swedes in 18th century, Napoleon, Hitler. If you are too stupid to see that I can't help you.

    Ukies - as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies - have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost. So much for their indispensable help.

    So stop dreaming up "victories" and focus on the unfolding disaster in front of us as another Euro conquer-Russia crusade is falling apart. Or aren't you supposed to be by Azov Sea by now? What happened to your "paused offensive"?

    Replies: @AP

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856
     
    You forgot to mention Chechnya 1996 here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War

    Chechnya won the first Chechen War before Russia came back for seconds several years later and won.

    , @ShortOnTime
    @AP


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856
     
    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia's favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.

    Still, it's true that Patriotic War 1941-1945 and Napoleon's 1812 Invasion of Russia are cited too often. At least you're coming up with better history analogies than all those foreign affairs and twitter/x writers that spent the last few months trying to meme WW2 1944-1945 Western Front from D-Day to breaching the German Westwall/Siegfried Line into Ukraine's 2023 Zaporozhye Offensive.

    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia. Those examples suggest many years of long and protracted wars with extensive periods of stalemate where the balance finally tips to one side or the other in complex changes of circumstances across decades and even centuries.

    Replies: @AP

  50. @Beckow
    @LatW


    Russians...They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.
     
    That is a description of a generic modern woman. You are really into projecting...

    To translate: romantic passionate women can also be gold-diggers, can act modestly and even passively, but there is a danger there...with enough skill and some luck it can be overcomed...

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia. This new bunch of enthusiasts is free to try. They seem a lot weaker than the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians...but this time they have a head start since Russia was lethargic for a long time. We should never say never and they have better propaganda skills...Still, it will most likely fail miserably in a bloody inferno.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    Both of you are showing a lot of false consciousness.

    Back to the books!

    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/index.htm

  51. Why would anyone support these nutters? (1)

    Hamas leader Isamil Haniyeh called for Palestinian civilians to die in Israel’s strikes against Hamas terrorists inside of Gaza.

    The remarks come as Hamas commits war crimes by using civilians as human shields and lies about events that have unfolded during the three-week war, including its false claims that Israel bombed a hospital.

    The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) captured remarks that Haniyeh made during an address on Thursday in which he falsely claimed Israel was committing a “new holocaust” against the Palestinians inside Gaza. (2)

    IN HIS OWN WORDS: Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh, from the comfort of his home in Qatar: “We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of #Gaza… so as to awaken our revolutionary spirit.”

    Listen to this vile terrorist scum sacrifice his own people

    [MORE]

    Pallywood cannot function when accurate translation is available. MEMRI is an excellent source for what Islam actually practices. It is fundamentally a religion of hate and death. All Judeo-Christians need to stand together against the Anti-Christ Muhammad.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.dailywire.com/news/hamas-leader-women-children-elderly-must-die-in-gaza-to-help-our-fight-against-israel

    (2) https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-gaza-bombing-new-holocaust-we-need-blood-women-children-and

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @LatW
    @A123

    A video of an interrogation of a few captured Hamas fighters just came out. And they said all the top leadership are either in Qatar or elsewhere, but not together with them.

  52. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    They didn’t even win against Finland really.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    • Replies: @AP
    @Europe Europa

    It was a partial victory. The Soviets lost a lot of men, failed to capture all of Finland and restore it to Moscow's rule (as was done to the Baltics) as they has hoped to do as evidenced by their having created a Soviet puppet government for the purpose. But, they did walk away with the territory they had earlier demanded, even a little more.

    Finland OTOH got to keep its independence, no small feat.

  53. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    Yes, it certainly seems that Beckow has fallen off of his rocker once again! 🙂

  54. Sher Singh says:

    https://freecanada.win/threads/26150/
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/exclusive-woke-mentality-military-chaplains-decry-new-directive-banning-religious-prayer-5514303

    LOL

    In addition, certain faiths have strict tenets requiring conversion of those they deem to be “pagan,” or who belong to polytheistic religions. These faiths’ dogmas and practices conflict with the commitment of the Defence Team to value equality and inclusivity at every level of the workplace.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/mnd-advisory-panel-systemic-racism-discrimination-final-report-jan-2022/part-iii-areas-of-opportunity-recommendations.html#toc5

  55. Makeover

    Would you trust this guy to hold your bitcoins?

    • LOL: Ivashka the fool
    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/11/ftx-samuel-bankman-fried-caroline-ellison-comp.jpg

    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @silviosilver

  56. @Ivashka the fool
    Valery Solovey has announced today that he is 100% certain that Putin has died at 8:40 pm last Thursday, October 26th. He is absolutely adamant about it.

    https://youtu.be/DEfPyMCm8_A?feature=shared

    (In Russian)

    Replies: @LatW, @AP

    To continue from the other thread (and thank you sincerely for the discussion!):

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6232732

    As I have already written, I agree that Zoroastrian influence on Judaism was very important.

    Indeed. So much so, that they seem to have even adopted the real God from the Persia, and only used their old god’s name for Him, as per the other source I had provided.

    https://www.cais-soas.com/CAIS/Religions/non-iranian/Judaism/Persian_Judaism/book2/pt8.htm

    Aryans worshipped him earlier

    Not all Aryans, the Vedic Aryans did not worship Ahura Mazda, quite the opposite, given that Zarathustra had declared the Devas worshipped by the Vedic Aryans and (the more primitive nomadic) Turanian tribes (Scythians) to be demons and enemies of Ahura Mazda.

    Agree.

    And this is why I was saying earlier, that the battle between “Dharmics” and “Abrahamics” (if by the latter we mean Christians, and maybe Muslims too if Islam is a twisted cultish heresy rather than a reversion to demon-worship) is not a struggle between Aryan belief system and a Semitic one but an intra-Aryan conflict between the Aryan God of Gods, Light from Light, versus lesser gods/demons.

    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.

    What is interesting, and is closer home for both of us, is that according to some accounts I have read of the early Christian (Ossetian / Alan) Christian missionaries’ activities in Slavic lands (preceding Saints Cyril and Methodius) , the pagan Slavs might have also had some higher form of paganism, along the more ritualistic folk religion. In that higher form of paganism, the Divine Essence would have been equated with the White Light pervading the creation (hence the expression белый свет in modern day Russian). All the gods would have been “incarnations” of that White Light. If that was truly the case (impossible to prove or disprove nowadays), Svyatovit would have been the main “personalisation” of this White Light – a higher God with a certain “universal” outlook about him.

    Fascinating indeed. It speaks to the wisdom of our Slavic ancestors. Thank you for that, and for your other links.

    But they would not be incarnations but avatars. An incarnation is made flesh.

    My perhaps idiosyncratic take is that Jesus not only rendered Judaism obsolete and completed it, but he did the same for the Persian faith because, as the incarnation of God, he was also the incarnation of Ahura Mazda who was the same because the Persians taught the Jews to worship Ahura Mazda and to transpose their old deity’s name onto Him.* And perhaps also, the incarnation of Sviatovit.

    And in this form, the faith finally vanquished that of the pagan Greeks who had defeated the Persians. And later, destroyed the demon-worship in the New World.

    *The other side of that coin is that the Avesta probably offers wisdom as worthy as that of the Old Testament.

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @AP

    ਖੰਡਾਪ੍ਰਿਥਮੈਸਾਜਕੈਜਿਨਸਭਸੈਸਾਰੁਉਪਾਇਆ॥
    First The Lord established the Khanda (double-edge sword) & then all of creation.

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1150620697639530561/1168284662829944852/image.png

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1150620697639530561/1168284663090008114/image.png


    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.
     
    Sikhi is an anti-Abrahamic proto IE proto Siberian Tengrism.
    Emerging out of Punjab which is a cosmopolitan Greek-Persian-Saka-Hunnic etc state.

    It annihilates all of that since it recognizes only MahaKaal (Great Death).

    We recognize only the all pervasive Lord.
    The Khanda splits Jesus like any other incarnation.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    Replies: @Sher Singh

  57. @Beckow
    @Greasy William


    ....if this war isn’t over soon, Biden can forget about getting re-elected.
     
    A year is a long time. But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.

    People now live a very long time and the elites try to hold on forever. The generational splits have become massive. When Biden talks it is like a great-grandpa from mid-to-late-20th century applying the little he ever knew in a completely changed world. These are not the same people - even ethnically they are very different.

    Year from now the world will be changed. Motus in fine velocior...and the old guys can't keep up. It is sad to watch them try...

    Replies: @Greasy William

    But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.

    I think Gaza’s population could be physically exterminated in a week if Bibi gave the order, given that they are so tightly packed and they are already in the early stages of death by starvation/dehydration. Obviously it would need to happen while the world’s attention was distracted elsewhere.

    Killing all the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, as well as those inside the Green Line and in the refugee camps of Lebanon and Syria would take months though, I agree.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @Greasy William

    It's interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians, literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment. It's quite sinister actually.

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Greasy William

  58. @Europe Europa
    @AP

    They didn't even win against Finland really.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

    Replies: @AP

    It was a partial victory. The Soviets lost a lot of men, failed to capture all of Finland and restore it to Moscow’s rule (as was done to the Baltics) as they has hoped to do as evidenced by their having created a Soviet puppet government for the purpose. But, they did walk away with the territory they had earlier demanded, even a little more.

    Finland OTOH got to keep its independence, no small feat.

  59. @Greasy William
    @Beckow


    But it is a lot of work to kill all the Satanic subhumans and memories may linger.
     
    I think Gaza's population could be physically exterminated in a week if Bibi gave the order, given that they are so tightly packed and they are already in the early stages of death by starvation/dehydration. Obviously it would need to happen while the world's attention was distracted elsewhere.

    Killing all the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, as well as those inside the Green Line and in the refugee camps of Lebanon and Syria would take months though, I agree.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    It’s interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians, literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment. It’s quite sinister actually.

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Europe Europa

    In Dagestan, the natives have just taken over the airport to prevent the landing of a plane which was coming from Tel Aviv. Somebody shared on social media that the plane was supposedly bringing some Jewish refugees. In the Caucasus republics the local Borats are ready for pogroms and sign petitions in support of Palestinians. Sooner or later it will spread to the rest of Rus Fed and in due time to the rest of the European countries where the Muslim populations are increasing year after year. As I wrote time and again, the Jews are taken into this cycle of chutzpah - pogroms - chutzpah, they always overreach and provoke a karmic backslash. It is as mentally/psychologically kosher as gefilte fish...

    Replies: @Dmitry, @ShortOnTime

    , @Greasy William
    @Europe Europa


    It’s interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians
     
    It is odd and I admit that I don't understand it

    literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment
     
    They do. The Palestinians are all inherently and irredeemably evil. That includes the women and children. Time to blot out the memory of Amalek from under Heaven.

    But I don't think the IDF or the State of Israel has it it in them. Even now. It will happen only during the final battle and G-d presumably wishes to reserve the honor of genociding this disgusting race for Himself. Which is probably for the best, if I'm being honest.

    It’s quite sinister actually.
     
    As G-d said to Saul when Saul chose to spare some "innocent" Palestinian women and children, "Don't be too righteous".

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.
     
    You're overthinking it

    Replies: @German_reader

  60. @Emil Nikola Richard
    Makeover

    https://media.nbcchicago.com/2023/10/107217826-16801895662023-03-30t150325z_1306878501_rc2f40amtu9q_rtrmadp_0_usa-bankmanfried-1.jpeg

    Would you trust this guy to hold your bitcoins?

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster…

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    I worked in one of the industries where Jews are low profile and never acquired the allergy; agree with Lex Fridman that it is almost irrelevant they are Khazarians. They are thieves. Send them to prison and let the internet forget about them.

    There is a subreddit I forget the exact numbers on. It's something like r/18to55 where they post before and afters of people who got old fast. The all time top rated post is Ellison.

    I read the transcript of Tiffany Fong's court report video. (Do not watch). His defense is all these people who testified for the prosecution like his ex girlfriend and his ex best friend and his ex chief accountant and his ex chief lawyer are lying. They are probably going to rip him to shreds on cross examination. It might be epic. P(suicide)~>.2.

    , @silviosilver
    @Ivashka the fool


    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster…
     
    Only if people recognized them as financial criminals, but even then I doubt it would make an "excellent" poster. If you meant that it would make an excellent poster because people would be repelled by their appearance, I think you are deeply deluding yourself. That sort of thing only appeals to existing biological antisemites (people who object to both Jewish genes and Jewish behavior; for them it's not enough if the behavior changes, because the genes remain, and are considered repulsive), not to the average normie.
  61. @A123
    Why would anyone support these nutters? (1)

    Hamas leader Isamil Haniyeh called for Palestinian civilians to die in Israel’s strikes against Hamas terrorists inside of Gaza.

    The remarks come as Hamas commits war crimes by using civilians as human shields and lies about events that have unfolded during the three-week war, including its false claims that Israel bombed a hospital.

    The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) captured remarks that Haniyeh made during an address on Thursday in which he falsely claimed Israel was committing a “new holocaust” against the Palestinians inside Gaza. (2)


    IN HIS OWN WORDS: Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh, from the comfort of his home in Qatar: "We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of #Gaza… so as to awaken our revolutionary spirit."

    Listen to this vile terrorist scum sacrifice his own people

    [MORE]

     


     
    Pallywood cannot function when accurate translation is available. MEMRI is an excellent source for what Islam actually practices. It is fundamentally a religion of hate and death. All Judeo-Christians need to stand together against the Anti-Christ Muhammad.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.dailywire.com/news/hamas-leader-women-children-elderly-must-die-in-gaza-to-help-our-fight-against-israel

    (2) https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-gaza-bombing-new-holocaust-we-need-blood-women-children-and

    https://twitter.com/IsraelinUSA/status/1718021899056210213?s=4

    Replies: @LatW

    A video of an interrogation of a few captured Hamas fighters just came out. And they said all the top leadership are either in Qatar or elsewhere, but not together with them.

  62. @Europe Europa
    @Greasy William

    It's interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians, literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment. It's quite sinister actually.

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Greasy William

    In Dagestan, the natives have just taken over the airport to prevent the landing of a plane which was coming from Tel Aviv. Somebody shared on social media that the plane was supposedly bringing some Jewish refugees. In the Caucasus republics the local Borats are ready for pogroms and sign petitions in support of Palestinians. Sooner or later it will spread to the rest of Rus Fed and in due time to the rest of the European countries where the Muslim populations are increasing year after year. As I wrote time and again, the Jews are taken into this cycle of chutzpah – pogroms – chutzpah, they always overreach and provoke a karmic backslash. It is as mentally/psychologically kosher as gefilte fish…

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool

    It's a negative symptom for the Russian Federation. I'm not sure Dagestanis rioting should be something especially scary, unpredicted or relevant for Israel.

    In 2003, the USA removed the government of Hussein in Iraq, with justification partly saying without the authoritarian dictatorship, the country would be a liberal democracy, maybe like Benelux countries or Scandinavia. But without the authoritarian government of Hussein, there was then about 15 years of civil war. Result of removing oppression there, was not creating a Norwegian lifestyle.

    Hussein's oppression of Iraq was partly not cause, but effect of potential instability of the country. When the oppression is removed, the potential instability becomes actual instability. In this case, the authoritarian government was partly indicator of the extent of control necessarily to prevent countries like Iraq falling to civil war.

    It doesn't need to be said, the situation in Republics of Dagestan and Chechen Republic, is at least potential instability. If you remove the authoritarian government, the result will be actualized. In Dagestan, this was weekly terrorist attacks only ten years ago.

    Reading their social media comments, you can see what their views are actually like, not like they say in the television, .

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @ShortOnTime
    @Ivashka the fool

    Dagestan events seem to explain some of why Kremlin and Putin adopted some pro-Palestine rhetoric.

    Easy to forget Muslims and Ramzan Kadyrov as head of Chechen feudal fiefdom (idk best way to describe informal arrangement between Putin and Kadyrov) are a noteworthy constituency of the Kremlin. As banal as it sounds, adopting some Palestine sympathetic rhetoric (only rooted in long unrealized 2 state solution) to reduce Muslim unrest and "reward" efforts of pro-Kadyrov Chechens fighting in Ukraine is least Kremlin elite can do. Probably best course of action too.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  63. @Europe Europa
    @Greasy William

    It's interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians, literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment. It's quite sinister actually.

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Greasy William

    It’s interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians

    It is odd and I admit that I don’t understand it

    literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment

    They do. The Palestinians are all inherently and irredeemably evil. That includes the women and children. Time to blot out the memory of Amalek from under Heaven.

    But I don’t think the IDF or the State of Israel has it it in them. Even now. It will happen only during the final battle and G-d presumably wishes to reserve the honor of genociding this disgusting race for Himself. Which is probably for the best, if I’m being honest.

    It’s quite sinister actually.

    As G-d said to Saul when Saul chose to spare some “innocent” Palestinian women and children, “Don’t be too righteous”.

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.

    You’re overthinking it

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Greasy William


    As G-d said to Saul when Saul chose to spare some “innocent” Palestinian women and children, “Don’t be too righteous”.
     
    Err no, Saul just spared their king (I'm not sure why) and their cattle which he wanted to use for sacrifice.
    Anyway, your comment reminds me of something you wrote about US liberals years ago, and reiner tor remarked how it would be ironic if that was the comment which got UR closed down. Though I suppose the risk is lower in the present climate regarding Palestinians.
  64. @Greasy William
    @Europe Europa


    It’s interesting how the media is literally chomping at the bit for the Jews to genocide the Palestinians
     
    It is odd and I admit that I don't understand it

    literally cheering it on and basically saying that all Palestinians, women and children included, deserve this collective punishment
     
    They do. The Palestinians are all inherently and irredeemably evil. That includes the women and children. Time to blot out the memory of Amalek from under Heaven.

    But I don't think the IDF or the State of Israel has it it in them. Even now. It will happen only during the final battle and G-d presumably wishes to reserve the honor of genociding this disgusting race for Himself. Which is probably for the best, if I'm being honest.

    It’s quite sinister actually.
     
    As G-d said to Saul when Saul chose to spare some "innocent" Palestinian women and children, "Don't be too righteous".

    I believe the British media is all for it because they see it as a precursor of what the cabal intend to do to us, the native British, if we ever had the audacity to really stand up to them.
     
    You're overthinking it

    Replies: @German_reader

    As G-d said to Saul when Saul chose to spare some “innocent” Palestinian women and children, “Don’t be too righteous”.

    Err no, Saul just spared their king (I’m not sure why) and their cattle which he wanted to use for sacrifice.
    Anyway, your comment reminds me of something you wrote about US liberals years ago, and reiner tor remarked how it would be ironic if that was the comment which got UR closed down. Though I suppose the risk is lower in the present climate regarding Palestinians.

  65. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self. Obviously the triffles like Poland don’t matter – I was clearly referring to the Euro-civilizational attacks on Russia: Poles in 17th century, Swedes in 18th century, Napoleon, Hitler. If you are too stupid to see that I can’t help you.

    Ukies – as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies – have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost. So much for their indispensable help.

    So stop dreaming up “victories” and focus on the unfolding disaster in front of us as another Euro conquer-Russia crusade is falling apart. Or aren’t you supposed to be by Azov Sea by now? What happened to your “paused offensive“?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self.
     
    You claimed nobody ever succeded against Russia.

    I pointed out that the Afghanis, Poles, Germans, and Japanese each defeated Russia.

    As usual, when your lies are exposed you cry "autism."

    Obviously the triffles like Poland don’t matter
     
    Russians committed a million soldiers in their failed war against Poland.

    That this was a "trifle" is another lie.

    Ukies – as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies – have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost.
     
    In World War II 90% of Ukrainians fought for the Soviets. This is why the Soviets won.

    In 1920 the Ukrainians weren't fighting for the Soviets in significant numbers. But some fought alongside the Poles. Poland won.

    In 1709, Ukrainians were split. The Swedish King was too impatient and did not wait for the Ukrainian Hetman to consolidate his forces and get them out of Russia.

    Prior to 1648 Ukrainians fought alongside Poles. They defeated Russians repeatedly, and even captured Moscow once. Although they were driven out of the Russian capital they still won that war, having gained territory by the peace treaty that ended it.. Kind of like the USSR defeating Finland in 1939.

    So stop dreaming up “victories”
     
    Lie that victories were dreamed up.

    Replies: @Beckow

  66. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/11/ftx-samuel-bankman-fried-caroline-ellison-comp.jpg

    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @silviosilver

    I worked in one of the industries where Jews are low profile and never acquired the allergy; agree with Lex Fridman that it is almost irrelevant they are Khazarians. They are thieves. Send them to prison and let the internet forget about them.

    There is a subreddit I forget the exact numbers on. It’s something like r/18to55 where they post before and afters of people who got old fast. The all time top rated post is Ellison.

    I read the transcript of Tiffany Fong’s court report video. (Do not watch). His defense is all these people who testified for the prosecution like his ex girlfriend and his ex best friend and his ex chief accountant and his ex chief lawyer are lying. They are probably going to rip him to shreds on cross examination. It might be epic. P(suicide)~>.2.

  67. Fact-checker Pratik Sinha has referred to India as the “disinformation capital of the world” due to the rise of right-wing nationalism in the country. There have been attempts to attribute the spread of false information in India on the Israel-Gaza conflict to the BJP’s IT Cell, a department within the ruling party that handles its social media accounts and campaigns

    Madhav Golwalkar, former head of the BJP’s ideological wing, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), articulated a vision of the Hindu nation emphasizing the racialized notion of a state, drawing parallels with Zionism.[ but it was initially Nazism to which RSS looked up to for inspiration ] .

    At the grassroots level, the pervasive impact of the rise of Hindutva can be seen in the prevalence of pro-Israel sentiments among supporters of the Hindu right. These ideological affinities between Hindu nationalists and Israel manifested online long before the ongoing conflict. Since Modi assumed office in 2014, it has become common to see tweets from Hindu nationalists expressing unwavering support for Israel and Netanyahu.

    In a post on X, a user that claiming affiliation with Al Jazeera alleged that she witnessed a misfired Hamas rocket hitting the hospital. Al Jazeera later released a statement to clarify that said user has no ties to the network. Multiple X users have pointed out the user had previously only posted on Indian politics and cricket, only recently turning her attention to Gaza, insinuating her origin.

    https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/indias-digital-footprint-on-the-israel-gaza-war/

  68. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    You forgot to mention Chechnya 1996 here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War

    Chechnya won the first Chechen War before Russia came back for seconds several years later and won.

  69. Battle of the Nations
    Italy Russia

    [MORE]

  70. Sher Singh says:
    @AP
    @Ivashka the fool

    To continue from the other thread (and thank you sincerely for the discussion!):

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-232/#comment-6232732


    As I have already written, I agree that Zoroastrian influence on Judaism was very important.
     
    Indeed. So much so, that they seem to have even adopted the real God from the Persia, and only used their old god's name for Him, as per the other source I had provided.

    https://www.cais-soas.com/CAIS/Religions/non-iranian/Judaism/Persian_Judaism/book2/pt8.htm


    Aryans worshipped him earlier

    Not all Aryans, the Vedic Aryans did not worship Ahura Mazda, quite the opposite, given that Zarathustra had declared the Devas worshipped by the Vedic Aryans and (the more primitive nomadic) Turanian tribes (Scythians) to be demons and enemies of Ahura Mazda.
     

    Agree.

    And this is why I was saying earlier, that the battle between "Dharmics" and "Abrahamics" (if by the latter we mean Christians, and maybe Muslims too if Islam is a twisted cultish heresy rather than a reversion to demon-worship) is not a struggle between Aryan belief system and a Semitic one but an intra-Aryan conflict between the Aryan God of Gods, Light from Light, versus lesser gods/demons.

    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.


    What is interesting, and is closer home for both of us, is that according to some accounts I have read of the early Christian (Ossetian / Alan) Christian missionaries’ activities in Slavic lands (preceding Saints Cyril and Methodius) , the pagan Slavs might have also had some higher form of paganism, along the more ritualistic folk religion. In that higher form of paganism, the Divine Essence would have been equated with the White Light pervading the creation (hence the expression белый свет in modern day Russian). All the gods would have been “incarnations” of that White Light. If that was truly the case (impossible to prove or disprove nowadays), Svyatovit would have been the main “personalisation” of this White Light – a higher God with a certain “universal” outlook about him.
     
    Fascinating indeed. It speaks to the wisdom of our Slavic ancestors. Thank you for that, and for your other links.

    But they would not be incarnations but avatars. An incarnation is made flesh.

    My perhaps idiosyncratic take is that Jesus not only rendered Judaism obsolete and completed it, but he did the same for the Persian faith because, as the incarnation of God, he was also the incarnation of Ahura Mazda who was the same because the Persians taught the Jews to worship Ahura Mazda and to transpose their old deity's name onto Him.* And perhaps also, the incarnation of Sviatovit.

    And in this form, the faith finally vanquished that of the pagan Greeks who had defeated the Persians. And later, destroyed the demon-worship in the New World.

    *The other side of that coin is that the Avesta probably offers wisdom as worthy as that of the Old Testament.

    Replies: @Sher Singh

    ਖੰਡਾਪ੍ਰਿਥਮੈਸਾਜਕੈਜਿਨਸਭਸੈਸਾਰੁਉਪਾਇਆ॥
    First The Lord established the Khanda (double-edge sword) & then all of creation.

    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.

    Sikhi is an anti-Abrahamic proto IE proto Siberian Tengrism.
    Emerging out of Punjab which is a cosmopolitan Greek-Persian-Saka-Hunnic etc state.

    It annihilates all of that since it recognizes only MahaKaal (Great Death).

    We recognize only the all pervasive Lord.
    The Khanda splits Jesus like any other incarnation.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @Sher Singh

    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines - the latter a whore.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans is evidence of your lack of faith.
    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian - there is neither Greek nor Jew.

    A devout Nigerian preacher is more of a Christian than you.
    You should go wash his feet, instead of arguing with racist tribalists like us.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    Replies: @AP

  71. Sher Singh says:
    @Sher Singh
    @AP

    ਖੰਡਾਪ੍ਰਿਥਮੈਸਾਜਕੈਜਿਨਸਭਸੈਸਾਰੁਉਪਾਇਆ॥
    First The Lord established the Khanda (double-edge sword) & then all of creation.

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1150620697639530561/1168284662829944852/image.png

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1150620697639530561/1168284663090008114/image.png


    And the uniqueness of Jesus was that He was the only incarnation (not avatar) of Ahura Mazda/God/Jehova.
     
    Sikhi is an anti-Abrahamic proto IE proto Siberian Tengrism.
    Emerging out of Punjab which is a cosmopolitan Greek-Persian-Saka-Hunnic etc state.

    It annihilates all of that since it recognizes only MahaKaal (Great Death).

    We recognize only the all pervasive Lord.
    The Khanda splits Jesus like any other incarnation.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    Replies: @Sher Singh

    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines – the latter a whore.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans is evidence of your lack of faith.
    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian – there is neither Greek nor Jew.

    A devout Nigerian preacher is more of a Christian than you.
    You should go wash his feet, instead of arguing with racist tribalists like us.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    • Replies: @AP
    @Sher Singh


    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines
     
    Mary was descended from King David's son Nathan.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans
     
    It's just reality.

    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian – there is neither Greek nor Jew.
     
    Correct.

    Why do you think there is a contradiction between those two facts - that Jesus's father was the universal God of gods first recognized and worshipped by the Aryans and that He was an incarnation of Him - and that one need not be an Aryan to be a Christian?

    Replies: @Sher Singh

  72. @Ivashka the fool
    @Europe Europa

    In Dagestan, the natives have just taken over the airport to prevent the landing of a plane which was coming from Tel Aviv. Somebody shared on social media that the plane was supposedly bringing some Jewish refugees. In the Caucasus republics the local Borats are ready for pogroms and sign petitions in support of Palestinians. Sooner or later it will spread to the rest of Rus Fed and in due time to the rest of the European countries where the Muslim populations are increasing year after year. As I wrote time and again, the Jews are taken into this cycle of chutzpah - pogroms - chutzpah, they always overreach and provoke a karmic backslash. It is as mentally/psychologically kosher as gefilte fish...

    Replies: @Dmitry, @ShortOnTime

    It’s a negative symptom for the Russian Federation. I’m not sure Dagestanis rioting should be something especially scary, unpredicted or relevant for Israel.

    In 2003, the USA removed the government of Hussein in Iraq, with justification partly saying without the authoritarian dictatorship, the country would be a liberal democracy, maybe like Benelux countries or Scandinavia. But without the authoritarian government of Hussein, there was then about 15 years of civil war. Result of removing oppression there, was not creating a Norwegian lifestyle.

    Hussein’s oppression of Iraq was partly not cause, but effect of potential instability of the country. When the oppression is removed, the potential instability becomes actual instability. In this case, the authoritarian government was partly indicator of the extent of control necessarily to prevent countries like Iraq falling to civil war.

    It doesn’t need to be said, the situation in Republics of Dagestan and Chechen Republic, is at least potential instability. If you remove the authoritarian government, the result will be actualized. In Dagestan, this was weekly terrorist attacks only ten years ago.

    Reading their social media comments, you can see what their views are actually like, not like they say in the television, .

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Dmitry

    Quite fitting that some Pepe in Unz has headline hanging now about Iran-Russia Setting a Western Trap in Palestine, but that trap somehow clapped firstly in former Persian empire province of Dagestan;)

    Replies: @Dmitry

  73. @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool

    It's a negative symptom for the Russian Federation. I'm not sure Dagestanis rioting should be something especially scary, unpredicted or relevant for Israel.

    In 2003, the USA removed the government of Hussein in Iraq, with justification partly saying without the authoritarian dictatorship, the country would be a liberal democracy, maybe like Benelux countries or Scandinavia. But without the authoritarian government of Hussein, there was then about 15 years of civil war. Result of removing oppression there, was not creating a Norwegian lifestyle.

    Hussein's oppression of Iraq was partly not cause, but effect of potential instability of the country. When the oppression is removed, the potential instability becomes actual instability. In this case, the authoritarian government was partly indicator of the extent of control necessarily to prevent countries like Iraq falling to civil war.

    It doesn't need to be said, the situation in Republics of Dagestan and Chechen Republic, is at least potential instability. If you remove the authoritarian government, the result will be actualized. In Dagestan, this was weekly terrorist attacks only ten years ago.

    Reading their social media comments, you can see what their views are actually like, not like they say in the television, .

    Replies: @sudden death

    Quite fitting that some Pepe in Unz has headline hanging now about Iran-Russia Setting a Western Trap in Palestine, but that trap somehow clapped firstly in former Persian empire province of Dagestan;)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    The some extent of actual stability in Dagestan in the last decade, despite the potential and past instability, could also be as a justification for Putin though.

    People could say, "imagine if Israel controlled Gaza, like how Putin controls the Chechen Republic or Republic of Dagestan".

    "Putin must be competent. He won the War in Dagestan, he won the Second Chechen war".

    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the "one-state solution" for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of "one-state solution" policy. And it's too early to know some of those.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  74. @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Historically, until the 20th century, most Jews live in villages without flowing water. Modern Ashkenazi Jewish culture was created by living in small dense villages, usually with strong separation from the non-Jewish village neighbors.

    Especially strict groups like Haredim needed to live in a village density without secrets from each other, because they are creating a village surveillance system, where everyone is watching everyone.

    Without this high density and mutual “village surveillance”, it would be almost impossible to follow religious rules, as they are too strict.

    The great cities of the Europe burghers, are not the easiest place to control a religious cult, or to prevent them from exiting a cult, to allow too much anonymity to follow a cult’s rules, which are difficult to follow without social pressure of your neighbors watching you.

    Jews entering cities in European history, is related to emancipation and the escape from their religion, assimilation to the Christian or postchristian European culture.
     
    So, one can say that the shtetls were the biggest obstacle to Jewish modernity and assimilation.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    In the late 19th century, a portion of Jews who were beginning to exit the village life to live in European cities, were losing most of their separate identity from the descendants of the Christian burghers.

    In America, maybe the nostalgia for the village heritage in Ukraine was still existing when “Fiddler on the Roof” is popular in 1960s Broadway, in Manhattan, New York.

    Paintings of Chagall is another nostalgia of villages in Belarus.

    In my opinion in Israel, we could say a proportion of the Jewish population still live in partly cultural recreation of the old villages. Although with less mud and rain, more palm trees and pogromists with the Islamist theme.

    This is not only in the villages there. I also think this is the part of the shabby/hipster Tel Aviv atmosphere in the Ashkenazi areas of the city. It’s not only because the collapsing village style of buildings.

    It doesn’t feel like a “big city” there. It feels like a small village atmosphere.

    When he enters a Ashkenazi/residents’ parts of the city at 27:00 It’s like a 19th century village festival atmosphere which Sholem Aleichem would probably not feel so distant, except without the mud.

    And this “village atmosphere” is more strong in the Haredi areas like Bnei Brak where they are speaking Yiddish.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Dmitry

    What is the level of crime in the areas with graffiti?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry

    I agree with your analysis here, Dmitry.

    BTW, I have a question for you: Do you think that without the Holocaust, Jewish-gentile intermarriage would have eventually become a huge thing in Poland, western Ukraine, western Belarus, Lithuania, et cetera just like it became in the later USSR? I mean specifically in the large cities where Jews would have coexisted together with gentiles, not in the shtetls where Jews would have largely remained isolated amongst themselves.

  75. @sudden death
    @Dmitry

    Quite fitting that some Pepe in Unz has headline hanging now about Iran-Russia Setting a Western Trap in Palestine, but that trap somehow clapped firstly in former Persian empire province of Dagestan;)

    Replies: @Dmitry

    The some extent of actual stability in Dagestan in the last decade, despite the potential and past instability, could also be as a justification for Putin though.

    People could say, “imagine if Israel controlled Gaza, like how Putin controls the Chechen Republic or Republic of Dagestan”.

    “Putin must be competent. He won the War in Dagestan, he won the Second Chechen war”.

    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the “one-state solution” for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of “one-state solution” policy. And it’s too early to know some of those.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the “one-state solution” for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of “one-state solution” policy. And it’s too early to know some of those.

     

    This one-state solution would have also made it extremely difficult for Russia to become an EU member even without both Russia's post-2000 descent back into autocracy and the post-2014 severe deterioration in relations between Russia and the West. After all, how exactly is the EU supposed to accept a totalitarian Islamist shithole like Chechnya into its ranks, even as a part of Russia? Would Chechens actually agree to be bound by EU laws, EU human rights conventions, et cetera? Or would Russia have actually been compelled to let Chechnya go in such a scenario?

    Replies: @Dmitry

  76. Listen, can’t we use this current situation, the anti-Jewish riots, or a potential of such in the EU, to stop the Muslim immigration into the EU? This would be a great excuse (and maybe even a valid reason).

    Once that is achieved, we could try to make Biden shut up about “Islamophobia”.

    , from Alex Parker:

    “Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество. И каждая его часть готова присоединиться к любому другому проекту этого самого национального строительства. Дагестан свой выбор сделал. Это часть всемирного исламского халифата. И не было никого кто бы это опроверг.”

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
    • Replies: @QCIC
    @LatW

    What is your opinion on the radical increase in Russian defense spending for 2024?

    Which major oligarchs are winners and losers in this economic redirection?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Philip Owen

    , @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin's policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.

    While those could have been relatively more of the assimilated population, for the Kremlin view, removing so many of the young men, overall would probably be viewed as reducing of the revolutionary potential or instability of these nationalities.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of "waste disposal system" for young men who could create political instability.

    -

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin's view.

    We don't know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6aA9LYCdfM

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @LatW

    , @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество.
     
    https://www.rea.ru/en/news/NewsImages/soglashenie-s-maib2.JPG

    The man above is the proud father of the fine lady below:

    https://photobooth.cdn.sports.ru/preset/post/5/01/d036015c24b8c8d6a3f04ff48d553.jpeg

    And this is perhaps why:

    https://www.siasat.com/unexpected-move-putin-quotes-holy-quran-1624860/amp/

    The Jews have this legend about queen Esther, seems they're not the only ones that can play these games.

    We might think about it as a Dagestani "anti-Purim".

    (As a side note, Alex Parker's and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can't stop laughing...)

    Replies: @LatW

  77. Sanctions and the war are having an effect on daily life in Russia.

    My ex employees in Russia are complaining that life is returning to 2005. Fewer buses and trams. The drivers need training. It’s not clear whether this is demography or the war. The Mashrutkas are now driven by inexperienced immigrants and overcrowded again. Spare parts for washing machines, air-conditioners and dishwashers (for those who have them) are unobtainable. Washing powders are not so effective … Fewer fashionable ‘Italian’ clothes. Who really wants to buy a Chinese car? After a couple of years of eating the same thing, the reduction in variety/quality of foods and branding has become noticeable. This is in Saratov. The deep provinces. ST Moscowburg may be different.

  78. @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    In the late 19th century, a portion of Jews who were beginning to exit the village life to live in European cities, were losing most of their separate identity from the descendants of the Christian burghers.

    In America, maybe the nostalgia for the village heritage in Ukraine was still existing when "Fiddler on the Roof" is popular in 1960s Broadway, in Manhattan, New York.

    Paintings of Chagall is another nostalgia of villages in Belarus.

    -

    In my opinion in Israel, we could say a proportion of the Jewish population still live in partly cultural recreation of the old villages. Although with less mud and rain, more palm trees and pogromists with the Islamist theme.

    This is not only in the villages there. I also think this is the part of the shabby/hipster Tel Aviv atmosphere in the Ashkenazi areas of the city. It's not only because the collapsing village style of buildings.

    It doesn't feel like a "big city" there. It feels like a small village atmosphere.

    When he enters a Ashkenazi/residents' parts of the city at 27:00 It's like a 19th century village festival atmosphere which Sholem Aleichem would probably not feel so distant, except without the mud.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co8bDzlzUME


    And this "village atmosphere" is more strong in the Haredi areas like Bnei Brak where they are speaking Yiddish.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ

    What is the level of crime in the areas with graffiti?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @QCIC

    The high crime or dangerous area is in poor area of South East Tel Aviv, which has nowadays mostly the "illegal immigrant" population and Yafo which is South of Tel Aviv.

    South East Tel Aviv has a high ratio of workers from Eritrea and Sudan. Yafo has traditionally an Arab population, but this Arab population are generally pushed South because of the gentrification of Northern Yafo.

    In the video he is going to these poor areas after around 50 minutes. At the end of the video he is going to the poorer side of Yafo.

    So the dangerous area is shown after 50:00

    The area at 27:00 - 30:00 can look shabby, but it's an expensive area with high prices of everything. The restaurants there costing like $20-30 dollars for each person.

    -

    I'm sceptical graffiti there is related to the mafia conflict like in Mexico or Los Angeles, as a lot of it is

    Some of the gentrified park in South Tel Aviv is completely covered with graffiti like the 1980s Bronx.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiL5_Cr7mfQ

  79. @LatW
    Listen, can't we use this current situation, the anti-Jewish riots, or a potential of such in the EU, to stop the Muslim immigration into the EU? This would be a great excuse (and maybe even a valid reason).

    Once that is achieved, we could try to make Biden shut up about "Islamophobia".

    @Dmitry, from Alex Parker:

    "Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество. И каждая его часть готова присоединиться к любому другому проекту этого самого национального строительства. Дагестан свой выбор сделал. Это часть всемирного исламского халифата. И не было никого кто бы это опроверг."

    Replies: @QCIC, @Dmitry, @Ivashka the fool

    What is your opinion on the radical increase in Russian defense spending for 2024?

    Which major oligarchs are winners and losers in this economic redirection?

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @QCIC

    This question was a response to Philip Owen #77.

    , @Philip Owen
    @QCIC

    Russia will be very effective producing some lower level stuff as a result of increased defence spending. It still won't have the best quality tensile steel for gun barrels but it will have plenty of them.

    Rostec will be the biggest gainer so Denis Manturov will collect the money. Less than usual. They will be less corrupt than usual. Magnitogorsk and Mechtel make the most appropriate steels for the military. Evraz, quoted in London, denies any supply to the military.

    Replies: @QCIC

  80. @LatW
    Listen, can't we use this current situation, the anti-Jewish riots, or a potential of such in the EU, to stop the Muslim immigration into the EU? This would be a great excuse (and maybe even a valid reason).

    Once that is achieved, we could try to make Biden shut up about "Islamophobia".

    @Dmitry, from Alex Parker:

    "Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество. И каждая его часть готова присоединиться к любому другому проекту этого самого национального строительства. Дагестан свой выбор сделал. Это часть всемирного исламского халифата. И не было никого кто бы это опроверг."

    Replies: @QCIC, @Dmitry, @Ivashka the fool

    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin’s policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.

    While those could have been relatively more of the assimilated population, for the Kremlin view, removing so many of the young men, overall would probably be viewed as reducing of the revolutionary potential or instability of these nationalities.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of “waste disposal system” for young men who could create political instability.

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.
     
    Reminds me of Catherine II and her successors creating a stronger Islamic identity among groups such as the Kazakhs and Kyrgyz by making Islamic education more widespread among those groups. Before Catherine II, Islam was frequently combined with Shamanism among these two peoples.
    , @LatW
    @Dmitry


    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin’s policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.
     
    Ukraine would be part of the Empire so there would be no urgency to hold it down. Although if the Empire had continued to modernize, it's possible that the internal changes would take place, maybe even increase the Ukrainian nationalism, possibly with growing education levels. But in general you're right, Putin has in some ways reversed what Peter achieved (I'm wondering if this may be the most drastic disruption in our communication in the recent history).

    Also, under Putin, the Slavic parts of Russia definitely became more multi-cultural. Is this the highest number of Central Asians and Caucasians who have ever lived on the Slavic territory? Well, at least they work.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.
     
    This is very tragic and very rough on the population. Did their material situation deteriorate, too? Except the military compensations for the dead. I wonder if there was some pent up anger that found its way in this pogrom (besides the Islamic solidarity factor). Sometimes during instability the periphery suffers a lot.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of “waste disposal system” for young men who could create political instability.
     
    If true, that just means that the Kremlin do not fully trust their own population or the population they're controlling. If this is the case, then this is colonial exploitation.

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.
     

    Well, technically, if they remain under control and well behaved, then this is understandable (but there would be no integration with the rest of the Russian society). They also get oil from Chechnya so they need to put money back in. However, with Islamic education, they probably should ask for the opinion of the wider Russian public about it.

    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women's head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video - many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  81. @Dmitry
    @sudden death

    The some extent of actual stability in Dagestan in the last decade, despite the potential and past instability, could also be as a justification for Putin though.

    People could say, "imagine if Israel controlled Gaza, like how Putin controls the Chechen Republic or Republic of Dagestan".

    "Putin must be competent. He won the War in Dagestan, he won the Second Chechen war".

    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the "one-state solution" for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of "one-state solution" policy. And it's too early to know some of those.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the “one-state solution” for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of “one-state solution” policy. And it’s too early to know some of those.

    This one-state solution would have also made it extremely difficult for Russia to become an EU member even without both Russia’s post-2000 descent back into autocracy and the post-2014 severe deterioration in relations between Russia and the West. After all, how exactly is the EU supposed to accept a totalitarian Islamist shithole like Chechnya into its ranks, even as a part of Russia? Would Chechens actually agree to be bound by EU laws, EU human rights conventions, et cetera? Or would Russia have actually been compelled to let Chechnya go in such a scenario?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    For the "one-state solution" in Russia, the stereotypical policy would be investing to secularize or homogenize the population in Grozny, "Russification".

    So, government funding to Islamicize Grozny since 2000, had been seeming illogical and with unknown long term consequences, even if you had supported Putin's wider policy choice. It doesn't seem consistent with a long term stability for the "one-state solution" in Russia.

    Grozny was a Russian city before the 1960s and it was a secular city before the 1990s. As late as 1994, they couldn't film any wearing hijab there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UN9VPMFWV0

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

  82. @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    In the late 19th century, a portion of Jews who were beginning to exit the village life to live in European cities, were losing most of their separate identity from the descendants of the Christian burghers.

    In America, maybe the nostalgia for the village heritage in Ukraine was still existing when "Fiddler on the Roof" is popular in 1960s Broadway, in Manhattan, New York.

    Paintings of Chagall is another nostalgia of villages in Belarus.

    -

    In my opinion in Israel, we could say a proportion of the Jewish population still live in partly cultural recreation of the old villages. Although with less mud and rain, more palm trees and pogromists with the Islamist theme.

    This is not only in the villages there. I also think this is the part of the shabby/hipster Tel Aviv atmosphere in the Ashkenazi areas of the city. It's not only because the collapsing village style of buildings.

    It doesn't feel like a "big city" there. It feels like a small village atmosphere.

    When he enters a Ashkenazi/residents' parts of the city at 27:00 It's like a 19th century village festival atmosphere which Sholem Aleichem would probably not feel so distant, except without the mud.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co8bDzlzUME


    And this "village atmosphere" is more strong in the Haredi areas like Bnei Brak where they are speaking Yiddish.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ

    I agree with your analysis here, Dmitry.

    BTW, I have a question for you: Do you think that without the Holocaust, Jewish-gentile intermarriage would have eventually become a huge thing in Poland, western Ukraine, western Belarus, Lithuania, et cetera just like it became in the later USSR? I mean specifically in the large cities where Jews would have coexisted together with gentiles, not in the shtetls where Jews would have largely remained isolated amongst themselves.

  83. @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin's policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.

    While those could have been relatively more of the assimilated population, for the Kremlin view, removing so many of the young men, overall would probably be viewed as reducing of the revolutionary potential or instability of these nationalities.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of "waste disposal system" for young men who could create political instability.

    -

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin's view.

    We don't know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6aA9LYCdfM

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @LatW

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    Reminds me of Catherine II and her successors creating a stronger Islamic identity among groups such as the Kazakhs and Kyrgyz by making Islamic education more widespread among those groups. Before Catherine II, Islam was frequently combined with Shamanism among these two peoples.

  84. @QCIC
    @Dmitry

    What is the level of crime in the areas with graffiti?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    The high crime or dangerous area is in poor area of South East Tel Aviv, which has nowadays mostly the “illegal immigrant” population and Yafo which is South of Tel Aviv.

    South East Tel Aviv has a high ratio of workers from Eritrea and Sudan. Yafo has traditionally an Arab population, but this Arab population are generally pushed South because of the gentrification of Northern Yafo.

    In the video he is going to these poor areas after around 50 minutes. At the end of the video he is going to the poorer side of Yafo.

    So the dangerous area is shown after 50:00

    The area at 27:00 – 30:00 can look shabby, but it’s an expensive area with high prices of everything. The restaurants there costing like $20-30 dollars for each person.

    I’m sceptical graffiti there is related to the mafia conflict like in Mexico or Los Angeles, as a lot of it is

    Some of the gentrified park in South Tel Aviv is completely covered with graffiti like the 1980s Bronx.

    • Thanks: QCIC
  85. @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    But the long term consequences are not known. Putin follows the “one-state solution” for Russia, with the pluses and minuses of such kind of “one-state solution” policy. And it’s too early to know some of those.

     

    This one-state solution would have also made it extremely difficult for Russia to become an EU member even without both Russia's post-2000 descent back into autocracy and the post-2014 severe deterioration in relations between Russia and the West. After all, how exactly is the EU supposed to accept a totalitarian Islamist shithole like Chechnya into its ranks, even as a part of Russia? Would Chechens actually agree to be bound by EU laws, EU human rights conventions, et cetera? Or would Russia have actually been compelled to let Chechnya go in such a scenario?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    For the “one-state solution” in Russia, the stereotypical policy would be investing to secularize or homogenize the population in Grozny, “Russification”.

    So, government funding to Islamicize Grozny since 2000, had been seeming illogical and with unknown long term consequences, even if you had supported Putin’s wider policy choice. It doesn’t seem consistent with a long term stability for the “one-state solution” in Russia.

    Grozny was a Russian city before the 1960s and it was a secular city before the 1990s. As late as 1994, they couldn’t film any wearing hijab there.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Dmitry

    The (((West))) uses Islam to destroy many things. This process seems to be closely related to the destructive immigration policies which are instituted at the top level.

    In the case of Grozny I don't know what was the "natural state of affairs" so I cannot guess to what degree the (((West))) had to exercise the levers of power to create what now exists. I think there were plenty of people available to stir up trouble since I assume many of the Western assets churning in Afghanistan hoofed it over to the DICh countries in 1991.

    , @Ivashka the fool
    @Dmitry

    Dima, Grozny was secular when it was 50% Russian/Slav. The Vainakhs killed these Russian people, the very men and women whose ancestors had built that town. They kidnapped them, raped their children, cut their throats and even eviscerated pregnant Russian women.

    You are too young to remember, but I do recall it very well. And I also remember that the Jewish/Noviop "intelligentsia" in Moscow and their Western "democratic" friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals "freedom fighters". Just like they did in Afghanistan, when the Mujahideen fought the Soviets.

    Ukrainian nationalists even volunteered to fight in the Ichkerian army's ranks. Sashko Bylyi and Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.

    Sooner or later, the evil unleashed upon the World comes back to haunt those who produced it. Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can't wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

    I hope that I will live enough to see them experience one day what we experienced back then in RF.

    https://youtu.be/L_LVxS_B0jU?feature=shared

    Inscha'Allah as our Muslim friends would say...

    Inscha'Allah...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

  86. @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin's policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.

    While those could have been relatively more of the assimilated population, for the Kremlin view, removing so many of the young men, overall would probably be viewed as reducing of the revolutionary potential or instability of these nationalities.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of "waste disposal system" for young men who could create political instability.

    -

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin's view.

    We don't know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6aA9LYCdfM

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @LatW

    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin’s policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.

    Ukraine would be part of the Empire so there would be no urgency to hold it down. Although if the Empire had continued to modernize, it’s possible that the internal changes would take place, maybe even increase the Ukrainian nationalism, possibly with growing education levels. But in general you’re right, Putin has in some ways reversed what Peter achieved (I’m wondering if this may be the most drastic disruption in our communication in the recent history).

    [MORE]

    Also, under Putin, the Slavic parts of Russia definitely became more multi-cultural. Is this the highest number of Central Asians and Caucasians who have ever lived on the Slavic territory? Well, at least they work.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.

    This is very tragic and very rough on the population. Did their material situation deteriorate, too? Except the military compensations for the dead. I wonder if there was some pent up anger that found its way in this pogrom (besides the Islamic solidarity factor). Sometimes during instability the periphery suffers a lot.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of “waste disposal system” for young men who could create political instability.

    If true, that just means that the Kremlin do not fully trust their own population or the population they’re controlling. If this is the case, then this is colonial exploitation.

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.

    Well, technically, if they remain under control and well behaved, then this is understandable (but there would be no integration with the rest of the Russian society). They also get oil from Chechnya so they need to put money back in. However, with Islamic education, they probably should ask for the opinion of the wider Russian public about it.

    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women’s head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video – many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women’s head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video – many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.
     
    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast. Just look at what happens there now. It is going archaic at full speed and Russians are paying a tribute to Chechnya - billions of dollars every year. Grozny has not only been rebuilt, but it is now one of the most modern and comfortable towns in RF. But people who made it secular are gone. They died or fled for their lives. Chechnya is now way more Islamic than it had ever been since 1917 and possibly even since the Russian conquest. In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence. And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.

    https://islamnews.ru/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/1419418802.jpg

    Спасибо Путину за это...

    Replies: @LatW, @Yevardian

  87. @QCIC
    @LatW

    What is your opinion on the radical increase in Russian defense spending for 2024?

    Which major oligarchs are winners and losers in this economic redirection?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Philip Owen

    This question was a response to Philip Owen #77.

  88. @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    For the "one-state solution" in Russia, the stereotypical policy would be investing to secularize or homogenize the population in Grozny, "Russification".

    So, government funding to Islamicize Grozny since 2000, had been seeming illogical and with unknown long term consequences, even if you had supported Putin's wider policy choice. It doesn't seem consistent with a long term stability for the "one-state solution" in Russia.

    Grozny was a Russian city before the 1960s and it was a secular city before the 1990s. As late as 1994, they couldn't film any wearing hijab there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UN9VPMFWV0

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

    The (((West))) uses Islam to destroy many things. This process seems to be closely related to the destructive immigration policies which are instituted at the top level.

    In the case of Grozny I don’t know what was the “natural state of affairs” so I cannot guess to what degree the (((West))) had to exercise the levers of power to create what now exists. I think there were plenty of people available to stir up trouble since I assume many of the Western assets churning in Afghanistan hoofed it over to the DICh countries in 1991.

  89. @LatW
    Listen, can't we use this current situation, the anti-Jewish riots, or a potential of such in the EU, to stop the Muslim immigration into the EU? This would be a great excuse (and maybe even a valid reason).

    Once that is achieved, we could try to make Biden shut up about "Islamophobia".

    @Dmitry, from Alex Parker:

    "Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество. И каждая его часть готова присоединиться к любому другому проекту этого самого национального строительства. Дагестан свой выбор сделал. Это часть всемирного исламского халифата. И не было никого кто бы это опроверг."

    Replies: @QCIC, @Dmitry, @Ivashka the fool

    Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество.


    The man above is the proud father of the fine lady below:

    And this is perhaps why:

    https://www.siasat.com/unexpected-move-putin-quotes-holy-quran-1624860/amp/

    The Jews have this legend about queen Esther, seems they’re not the only ones that can play these games.

    We might think about it as a Dagestani “anti-Purim”.

    (As a side note, Alex Parker’s and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can’t stop laughing…)

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool


    As a side note, Alex Parker’s and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can’t stop laughing…
     
    Oh, they're having a field day. I'm glad you can view it as entertainment. :)
    Well, at least Alex Parker is no longer depressed. :)

    And, yes, Alex Parker mentioned recently, after that scandal with Kadyrov's son, that the only way he can explain such bezpred'el is because Putin himself has converted to Islam because of his wife/girlfriend. I doubt it's true though.. but you know when people get old, they might start thinking about eternal things.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

  90. @Dmitry
    @Mr. XYZ

    For the "one-state solution" in Russia, the stereotypical policy would be investing to secularize or homogenize the population in Grozny, "Russification".

    So, government funding to Islamicize Grozny since 2000, had been seeming illogical and with unknown long term consequences, even if you had supported Putin's wider policy choice. It doesn't seem consistent with a long term stability for the "one-state solution" in Russia.

    Grozny was a Russian city before the 1960s and it was a secular city before the 1990s. As late as 1994, they couldn't film any wearing hijab there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UN9VPMFWV0

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

    Dima, Grozny was secular when it was 50% Russian/Slav. The Vainakhs killed these Russian people, the very men and women whose ancestors had built that town. They kidnapped them, raped their children, cut their throats and even eviscerated pregnant Russian women.

    You are too young to remember, but I do recall it very well. And I also remember that the Jewish/Noviop “intelligentsia” in Moscow and their Western “democratic” friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals “freedom fighters”. Just like they did in Afghanistan, when the Mujahideen fought the Soviets.

    Ukrainian nationalists even volunteered to fight in the Ichkerian army’s ranks. Sashko Bylyi and Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.

    Sooner or later, the evil unleashed upon the World comes back to haunt those who produced it. Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can’t wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

    I hope that I will live enough to see them experience one day what we experienced back then in RF.

    Inscha’Allah as our Muslim friends would say…

    Inscha’Allah…

    • Agree: ShortOnTime
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    The Buddha does not approve of this message. : )

    Have you given Daoism a go yet? They have awesome astrology.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    , @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool


    Vainakhs killed these Russian people

     

    Before 1994, there were anti-Russian pogroms with a mainly nationalist basis, some of the worse examples of this time.

    But history books also write, many examples of Chechen civilians tried to shelter the Russian civilians in 1994/1995, not all the ethnic harmony was spoiled.

    Disproportionately and sometimes it says most of the thousands of civilians killed by the Russian army's bombing of Grozny were Russians. Most of the Chechen moved out to the villages, while Russian civilians were trapped in Grozny.

    Dudaev has partly responsibility for not allowing the evacuation of the Russians, but it was the Russian army bombing Russian civilians of Grozny after December 1994.

    https://i.imgur.com/LGrFnFI.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/28Luh3a.jpg

    By the way, we can see in the video from 1994 summer, Grozny was still full of Russians before 1994.

    Most of the students in the university look like Russians in that video.


    their Western “democratic” friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals “freedom fighters”.
     
    When the Russian army was bombing Russian civilians of Grozny, I wouldn't say Dudaev was worse for Russians than Moscow in 1994/1995.

    Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can’t wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

     

    Last time I said you reflected the Soviet mentality, you were going to spearfishing, romantic diving instructor. There is also Soviet person's masochistic mentality which was influenced by the KGB. Your children are in Canada. Maybe they can convert in the Canadian mosque?

    Inscha’Allah as our Muslim friends would say…

    Inscha’Allah…
     

    It's funny, in that time, Chechens almost didn't know Islam, not only were there not hijabs in Grozny.

    Look at your favored singer Mutsurayev. He tries to sing copying American early 1990s rock music like Nirvana.

    He wants to have an Islamic theme, but his famous song is "Jerusalem", using the Hebrew name for the city and secular American music, so it is automatically failure.

    How does it compare after Putin's victory in the Second Chechen War. Today there is a real federal funding for the Islamic education. Many women are learning to memorize the Koran in Arabic, with the government money.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @LatW

  91. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    Reflect about some of the cynical aspects of Putin’s policies and if these would be viewed as competent policies, perhaps in the 19th century, in the Russian empire. For example, the war in Ukraine.
     
    Ukraine would be part of the Empire so there would be no urgency to hold it down. Although if the Empire had continued to modernize, it's possible that the internal changes would take place, maybe even increase the Ukrainian nationalism, possibly with growing education levels. But in general you're right, Putin has in some ways reversed what Peter achieved (I'm wondering if this may be the most drastic disruption in our communication in the recent history).

    Also, under Putin, the Slavic parts of Russia definitely became more multi-cultural. Is this the highest number of Central Asians and Caucasians who have ever lived on the Slavic territory? Well, at least they work.

    As a result of the professional army and mobilization, 10s of 1000s of Dagestani and Chechen young men have been killed in Ukraine.
     
    This is very tragic and very rough on the population. Did their material situation deteriorate, too? Except the military compensations for the dead. I wonder if there was some pent up anger that found its way in this pogrom (besides the Islamic solidarity factor). Sometimes during instability the periphery suffers a lot.

    So, they will view war in Ukraine as also a kind of “waste disposal system” for young men who could create political instability.
     
    If true, that just means that the Kremlin do not fully trust their own population or the population they're controlling. If this is the case, then this is colonial exploitation.

    But the government allows and even funds the increase in the Islamic identity of the Russian citizens in these areas. This is less easy to understand, from the Kremlin’s view.

    We don’t know what is the long term consequence for the nation building, of the Russian taxpayers funding this for Russian citizens in areas of the Russian Federation, which had been secularized in the Soviet times.
     

    Well, technically, if they remain under control and well behaved, then this is understandable (but there would be no integration with the rest of the Russian society). They also get oil from Chechnya so they need to put money back in. However, with Islamic education, they probably should ask for the opinion of the wider Russian public about it.

    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women's head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video - many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women’s head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video – many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.

    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast. Just look at what happens there now. It is going archaic at full speed and Russians are paying a tribute to Chechnya – billions of dollars every year. Grozny has not only been rebuilt, but it is now one of the most modern and comfortable towns in RF. But people who made it secular are gone. They died or fled for their lives. Chechnya is now way more Islamic than it had ever been since 1917 and possibly even since the Russian conquest. In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence. And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.

    Спасибо Путину за это…

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool


    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast.
     
    Well, that's what I was alluding to, I'm not that well informed on this, but it feels like the Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture. I'm sure many Chechens enjoy having these resources and having "pride" in the Ahmat sila and having a privileged status for their ethnicity, however, I've also heard that some Chechens are not entirely happy about how their cultural code is being altered (and rather fast, at that). That their agreement with the Kremlin was that they remain under Kremlin's control, but that their cultural autonomy is preserved. Of course, this neo-Kadyrovite version of Islam (for the lack of a better term) is coming not from Kremlin, but from this little padishah himself. And it's sad because some of their culture was already destroyed prior and now it's being messed with again.

    It is going archaic at full speed
     
    But it's not the kind of "archaic" that they used to have prior to the Russian colonization or even during the Empire times. Right?

    In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence.
     
    These things can change very quickly, loyalty can be questionable in these kinds of set ups. Recently Kadyrov created another Chechen military unit and he named it after Sheik Mansur - the famous Chechen freedom fighter against the Russian Empire (he fought against Catherine). This happened just now. There is a Chechen unit fighting on the side of Ukraine, also named after Sheik Mansur.

    And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.
     
    Not sure what the atmosphere is like in Tatarstan, I know there were recently issues with the Tatar language. But there are a ton of Russians there.

    Btw, the Muslims all over the world are really riled up now and raging, this may affect the Caucasus.

    Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.
     
    Do you know if he witnessed it himself or just from accounts?

    So when the Chechens were pushing out the Russians from Grozny and other towns (before the war, did it start right after 1991?), they murdered people, too? I read that they took over some Russian people's apartments. I think they may have even killed some Russian women. They seem to have this "dagger culture" and they seem to be very resolute with it. They are notorious for that, and just their ways in general, can be a bit scary.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Yevardian
    @Ivashka the fool

    Chechyna, Circassia and the North Caucasus in general still had sizeable native Christian populations prior to Yermolov's conquests. Islam became associated with resistance to the invader.
    Similarly much of northern Central Asia was nominally Muslim and largely pagan in practice prior to the Russian Empire's takeover of that region.

  92. @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    Многонационализм Пыпы в итоге не сплотил, а полностью атомизировал общество.
     
    https://www.rea.ru/en/news/NewsImages/soglashenie-s-maib2.JPG

    The man above is the proud father of the fine lady below:

    https://photobooth.cdn.sports.ru/preset/post/5/01/d036015c24b8c8d6a3f04ff48d553.jpeg

    And this is perhaps why:

    https://www.siasat.com/unexpected-move-putin-quotes-holy-quran-1624860/amp/

    The Jews have this legend about queen Esther, seems they're not the only ones that can play these games.

    We might think about it as a Dagestani "anti-Purim".

    (As a side note, Alex Parker's and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can't stop laughing...)

    Replies: @LatW

    As a side note, Alex Parker’s and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can’t stop laughing…

    Oh, they’re having a field day. I’m glad you can view it as entertainment. 🙂
    Well, at least Alex Parker is no longer depressed. 🙂

    And, yes, Alex Parker mentioned recently, after that scandal with Kadyrov’s son, that the only way he can explain such bezpred’el is because Putin himself has converted to Islam because of his wife/girlfriend. I doubt it’s true though.. but you know when people get old, they might start thinking about eternal things.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @LatW

    Are you referring to the rhythmic gymnast?

    , @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    I’m glad you can view it as entertainment. 🙂
     
    Of course I can. As a French saying goes: "vaut mieux en rire qu'en pleurer".

    the only way he can explain such bezpred’el is
     
    There is another explanation, Kadyrov and his clan knew very well that Putin wouldn't last for long and so they prepared to present themselves as the champions of the RF Muslims. The Muslims in RF account for some 25% nowadays, especially if one includes the Central Asian migrants. Many are wealthy, even more are armed and ready to kill.

    When Pynya is no longer able to balance the interests of the different clans, Muslim ones will have a strong bargaining position if they band together. So showing that RF laws do not apply in Grozny, that nowhere in RF someone can desecrate the Qurʾān, is a show of strength by Kadyrov. Just like naming the new Chechen battalions by the names of the ninetteenth century anti-Russian resistance leaders is also a sign of strength. Kadyrov wants his clan to become the armed fist of the Islamic Ummah in the crumbling RF. It is a very bold and intelligent strategy.

    BTW, Kabayeva's father was born and lived a long time in Uzbekistan. Although IIRC he isn't Uzbek, but ethnic Tatar, while her mom is an ethnic Russian. Doesn't change much anyway, the aging Pynya has been betrothed to a Muslim girl whose family moved from Uzbekistan. To marry a practicing Muslim woman, a man must be a Muslim, at least say the shahada. And this woman made him happy and produced him three kids (if we believe the rumors), how can he close the doors to her kin and kind ?

    That is why if a Rus EthnoNat would protest against Islamisation of RF he would do time and perhaps get tortured or killed in prison, but if Kadyrov's son beats up the crap out of a young ethnic Russian secularist who burned a Qurʾān, then Kadyrov junior will receive a medal from his dad and Tatarstan's leader as well.

    As I wrote previously, 2024 will be an interesting time in RF, better watched from a safe distance. And as I have bet three years ago with Karlin, Pynya will not be the president of RF in 2024...
  93. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/11/ftx-samuel-bankman-fried-caroline-ellison-comp.jpg

    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @silviosilver

    Would make an excellent antisemitic poster…

    Only if people recognized them as financial criminals, but even then I doubt it would make an “excellent” poster. If you meant that it would make an excellent poster because people would be repelled by their appearance, I think you are deeply deluding yourself. That sort of thing only appeals to existing biological antisemites (people who object to both Jewish genes and Jewish behavior; for them it’s not enough if the behavior changes, because the genes remain, and are considered repulsive), not to the average normie.

  94. @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women’s head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video – many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.
     
    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast. Just look at what happens there now. It is going archaic at full speed and Russians are paying a tribute to Chechnya - billions of dollars every year. Grozny has not only been rebuilt, but it is now one of the most modern and comfortable towns in RF. But people who made it secular are gone. They died or fled for their lives. Chechnya is now way more Islamic than it had ever been since 1917 and possibly even since the Russian conquest. In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence. And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.

    https://islamnews.ru/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/1419418802.jpg

    Спасибо Путину за это...

    Replies: @LatW, @Yevardian

    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast.

    Well, that’s what I was alluding to, I’m not that well informed on this, but it feels like the Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture. I’m sure many Chechens enjoy having these resources and having “pride” in the Ahmat sila and having a privileged status for their ethnicity, however, I’ve also heard that some Chechens are not entirely happy about how their cultural code is being altered (and rather fast, at that). That their agreement with the Kremlin was that they remain under Kremlin’s control, but that their cultural autonomy is preserved. Of course, this neo-Kadyrovite version of Islam (for the lack of a better term) is coming not from Kremlin, but from this little padishah himself. And it’s sad because some of their culture was already destroyed prior and now it’s being messed with again.

    It is going archaic at full speed

    But it’s not the kind of “archaic” that they used to have prior to the Russian colonization or even during the Empire times. Right?

    In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence.

    These things can change very quickly, loyalty can be questionable in these kinds of set ups. Recently Kadyrov created another Chechen military unit and he named it after Sheik Mansur – the famous Chechen freedom fighter against the Russian Empire (he fought against Catherine). This happened just now. There is a Chechen unit fighting on the side of Ukraine, also named after Sheik Mansur.

    And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.

    Not sure what the atmosphere is like in Tatarstan, I know there were recently issues with the Tatar language. But there are a ton of Russians there.

    Btw, the Muslims all over the world are really riled up now and raging, this may affect the Caucasus.

    [MORE]

    Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.

    Do you know if he witnessed it himself or just from accounts?

    So when the Chechens were pushing out the Russians from Grozny and other towns (before the war, did it start right after 1991?), they murdered people, too? I read that they took over some Russian people’s apartments. I think they may have even killed some Russian women. They seem to have this “dagger culture” and they seem to be very resolute with it. They are notorious for that, and just their ways in general, can be a bit scary.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the war.

    By the way, even today, Chechens and Dagestanis will have mostly the nationalist dislike of Russia or Russians.

    You could see for years in the social media comments if you are part of the Russian internet, they are often writing anti-Russian comments, it's not from a religious perspective, but a nationalist hatred.


    Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture

     

    Yes it's still a fake Islam there, they won't understand the religion very much. Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a "fake" and synthetic "folklore" appearance, also like people don't understand what they are doing.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-I9Ka5LhMc

    Replies: @LatW

  95. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool


    As a side note, Alex Parker’s and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can’t stop laughing…
     
    Oh, they're having a field day. I'm glad you can view it as entertainment. :)
    Well, at least Alex Parker is no longer depressed. :)

    And, yes, Alex Parker mentioned recently, after that scandal with Kadyrov's son, that the only way he can explain such bezpred'el is because Putin himself has converted to Islam because of his wife/girlfriend. I doubt it's true though.. but you know when people get old, they might start thinking about eternal things.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

    Are you referring to the rhythmic gymnast?

  96. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool


    As a side note, Alex Parker’s and other Rus EthnoNat Tg channels are on fire. I just can’t stop laughing…
     
    Oh, they're having a field day. I'm glad you can view it as entertainment. :)
    Well, at least Alex Parker is no longer depressed. :)

    And, yes, Alex Parker mentioned recently, after that scandal with Kadyrov's son, that the only way he can explain such bezpred'el is because Putin himself has converted to Islam because of his wife/girlfriend. I doubt it's true though.. but you know when people get old, they might start thinking about eternal things.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Ivashka the fool

    I’m glad you can view it as entertainment. 🙂

    Of course I can. As a French saying goes: “vaut mieux en rire qu’en pleurer“.

    the only way he can explain such bezpred’el is

    There is another explanation, Kadyrov and his clan knew very well that Putin wouldn’t last for long and so they prepared to present themselves as the champions of the RF Muslims. The Muslims in RF account for some 25% nowadays, especially if one includes the Central Asian migrants. Many are wealthy, even more are armed and ready to kill.

    When Pynya is no longer able to balance the interests of the different clans, Muslim ones will have a strong bargaining position if they band together. So showing that RF laws do not apply in Grozny, that nowhere in RF someone can desecrate the Qurʾān, is a show of strength by Kadyrov. Just like naming the new Chechen battalions by the names of the ninetteenth century anti-Russian resistance leaders is also a sign of strength. Kadyrov wants his clan to become the armed fist of the Islamic Ummah in the crumbling RF. It is a very bold and intelligent strategy.

    BTW, Kabayeva’s father was born and lived a long time in Uzbekistan. Although IIRC he isn’t Uzbek, but ethnic Tatar, while her mom is an ethnic Russian. Doesn’t change much anyway, the aging Pynya has been betrothed to a Muslim girl whose family moved from Uzbekistan. To marry a practicing Muslim woman, a man must be a Muslim, at least say the shahada. And this woman made him happy and produced him three kids (if we believe the rumors), how can he close the doors to her kin and kind ?

    That is why if a Rus EthnoNat would protest against Islamisation of RF he would do time and perhaps get tortured or killed in prison, but if Kadyrov’s son beats up the crap out of a young ethnic Russian secularist who burned a Qurʾān, then Kadyrov junior will receive a medal from his dad and Tatarstan’s leader as well.

    As I wrote previously, 2024 will be an interesting time in RF, better watched from a safe distance. And as I have bet three years ago with Karlin, Pynya will not be the president of RF in 2024…

    • Thanks: LatW
  97. @Ivashka the fool
    @Dmitry

    Dima, Grozny was secular when it was 50% Russian/Slav. The Vainakhs killed these Russian people, the very men and women whose ancestors had built that town. They kidnapped them, raped their children, cut their throats and even eviscerated pregnant Russian women.

    You are too young to remember, but I do recall it very well. And I also remember that the Jewish/Noviop "intelligentsia" in Moscow and their Western "democratic" friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals "freedom fighters". Just like they did in Afghanistan, when the Mujahideen fought the Soviets.

    Ukrainian nationalists even volunteered to fight in the Ichkerian army's ranks. Sashko Bylyi and Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.

    Sooner or later, the evil unleashed upon the World comes back to haunt those who produced it. Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can't wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

    I hope that I will live enough to see them experience one day what we experienced back then in RF.

    https://youtu.be/L_LVxS_B0jU?feature=shared

    Inscha'Allah as our Muslim friends would say...

    Inscha'Allah...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

    The Buddha does not approve of this message. : )

    Have you given Daoism a go yet? They have awesome astrology.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I agree that I get bitter when I remember these years. The years 1991 to 1996 have been absolutely remarkable and not in a good sense, although of course there was some good about them. I do my best to feel detached and dispassionate when I recall it all, but sometimes it just gets back at me. And when it happens I feel sorry and guilty for not being a better human. Re. Taoism, I have of course read the Tao te Ching, the stanza that I liked the most was:


    Nature is unkind:
    It treats the creation like sacrificial straw-dogs.
    The Sage is unkind:
    He treats the people like sacrificial straw-dogs.

    How the universe is like a bellows!
    Empty, yet it gives a supply that never fails;
    The more it is worked, the more it brings forth.

    By many words is wit exhausted.
    Rather, therefore, hold to the core.
     

    Of course, it is an imperfect translation.

    (And I do not believe in astrology at all, whatever its cultural variety.)

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  98. @Ivashka the fool
    @Dmitry

    Dima, Grozny was secular when it was 50% Russian/Slav. The Vainakhs killed these Russian people, the very men and women whose ancestors had built that town. They kidnapped them, raped their children, cut their throats and even eviscerated pregnant Russian women.

    You are too young to remember, but I do recall it very well. And I also remember that the Jewish/Noviop "intelligentsia" in Moscow and their Western "democratic" friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals "freedom fighters". Just like they did in Afghanistan, when the Mujahideen fought the Soviets.

    Ukrainian nationalists even volunteered to fight in the Ichkerian army's ranks. Sashko Bylyi and Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.

    Sooner or later, the evil unleashed upon the World comes back to haunt those who produced it. Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can't wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

    I hope that I will live enough to see them experience one day what we experienced back then in RF.

    https://youtu.be/L_LVxS_B0jU?feature=shared

    Inscha'Allah as our Muslim friends would say...

    Inscha'Allah...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

    Vainakhs killed these Russian people

    Before 1994, there were anti-Russian pogroms with a mainly nationalist basis, some of the worse examples of this time.

    But history books also write, many examples of Chechen civilians tried to shelter the Russian civilians in 1994/1995, not all the ethnic harmony was spoiled.

    Disproportionately and sometimes it says most of the thousands of civilians killed by the Russian army’s bombing of Grozny were Russians. Most of the Chechen moved out to the villages, while Russian civilians were trapped in Grozny.

    Dudaev has partly responsibility for not allowing the evacuation of the Russians, but it was the Russian army bombing Russian civilians of Grozny after December 1994.

    By the way, we can see in the video from 1994 summer, Grozny was still full of Russians before 1994.

    Most of the students in the university look like Russians in that video.

    their Western “democratic” friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals “freedom fighters”.

    When the Russian army was bombing Russian civilians of Grozny, I wouldn’t say Dudaev was worse for Russians than Moscow in 1994/1995.

    Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can’t wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

    Last time I said you reflected the Soviet mentality, you were going to spearfishing, romantic diving instructor. There is also Soviet person’s masochistic mentality which was influenced by the KGB. Your children are in Canada. Maybe they can convert in the Canadian mosque?

    Inscha’Allah as our Muslim friends would say…

    Inscha’Allah…

    It’s funny, in that time, Chechens almost didn’t know Islam, not only were there not hijabs in Grozny.

    Look at your favored singer Mutsurayev. He tries to sing copying American early 1990s rock music like Nirvana.

    He wants to have an Islamic theme, but his famous song is “Jerusalem”, using the Hebrew name for the city and secular American music, so it is automatically failure.

    How does it compare after Putin’s victory in the Second Chechen War. Today there is a real federal funding for the Islamic education. Many women are learning to memorize the Koran in Arabic, with the government money.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Dmitry

    You don't know what you're talking about Dima. It would be a waste of our time to continue our conversation.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @LatW
    @Dmitry

    This Mutsurayev has really good lyrics.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Dmitry

  99. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    The Buddha does not approve of this message. : )

    Have you given Daoism a go yet? They have awesome astrology.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    I agree that I get bitter when I remember these years. The years 1991 to 1996 have been absolutely remarkable and not in a good sense, although of course there was some good about them. I do my best to feel detached and dispassionate when I recall it all, but sometimes it just gets back at me. And when it happens I feel sorry and guilty for not being a better human. Re. Taoism, I have of course read the Tao te Ching, the stanza that I liked the most was:

    Nature is unkind:
    It treats the creation like sacrificial straw-dogs.
    The Sage is unkind:
    He treats the people like sacrificial straw-dogs.

    How the universe is like a bellows!
    Empty, yet it gives a supply that never fails;
    The more it is worked, the more it brings forth.

    By many words is wit exhausted.
    Rather, therefore, hold to the core.

    Of course, it is an imperfect translation.

    (And I do not believe in astrology at all, whatever its cultural variety.)

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool


    And I do not believe in astrology at all, whatever its cultural variety.
     
    It's just a timekeeping mnemonic mechanical invention. And it's older than any written textbook.
  100. @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool


    Vainakhs killed these Russian people

     

    Before 1994, there were anti-Russian pogroms with a mainly nationalist basis, some of the worse examples of this time.

    But history books also write, many examples of Chechen civilians tried to shelter the Russian civilians in 1994/1995, not all the ethnic harmony was spoiled.

    Disproportionately and sometimes it says most of the thousands of civilians killed by the Russian army's bombing of Grozny were Russians. Most of the Chechen moved out to the villages, while Russian civilians were trapped in Grozny.

    Dudaev has partly responsibility for not allowing the evacuation of the Russians, but it was the Russian army bombing Russian civilians of Grozny after December 1994.

    https://i.imgur.com/LGrFnFI.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/28Luh3a.jpg

    By the way, we can see in the video from 1994 summer, Grozny was still full of Russians before 1994.

    Most of the students in the university look like Russians in that video.


    their Western “democratic” friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals “freedom fighters”.
     
    When the Russian army was bombing Russian civilians of Grozny, I wouldn't say Dudaev was worse for Russians than Moscow in 1994/1995.

    Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can’t wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

     

    Last time I said you reflected the Soviet mentality, you were going to spearfishing, romantic diving instructor. There is also Soviet person's masochistic mentality which was influenced by the KGB. Your children are in Canada. Maybe they can convert in the Canadian mosque?

    Inscha’Allah as our Muslim friends would say…

    Inscha’Allah…
     

    It's funny, in that time, Chechens almost didn't know Islam, not only were there not hijabs in Grozny.

    Look at your favored singer Mutsurayev. He tries to sing copying American early 1990s rock music like Nirvana.

    He wants to have an Islamic theme, but his famous song is "Jerusalem", using the Hebrew name for the city and secular American music, so it is automatically failure.

    How does it compare after Putin's victory in the Second Chechen War. Today there is a real federal funding for the Islamic education. Many women are learning to memorize the Koran in Arabic, with the government money.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @LatW

    You don’t know what you’re talking about Dima. It would be a waste of our time to continue our conversation.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool

    Which part of the comment do you think is incorrect and do you have historical sources? You think Grozny was not full of Russians in December 1994? Or was asking about the mosque your Canadian children would attend according to your own desire for the "Islamic victory against the West" expressed in your comment some kind of sensitive topic?

    Replies: @Yevardian

  101. @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool


    Vainakhs killed these Russian people

     

    Before 1994, there were anti-Russian pogroms with a mainly nationalist basis, some of the worse examples of this time.

    But history books also write, many examples of Chechen civilians tried to shelter the Russian civilians in 1994/1995, not all the ethnic harmony was spoiled.

    Disproportionately and sometimes it says most of the thousands of civilians killed by the Russian army's bombing of Grozny were Russians. Most of the Chechen moved out to the villages, while Russian civilians were trapped in Grozny.

    Dudaev has partly responsibility for not allowing the evacuation of the Russians, but it was the Russian army bombing Russian civilians of Grozny after December 1994.

    https://i.imgur.com/LGrFnFI.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/28Luh3a.jpg

    By the way, we can see in the video from 1994 summer, Grozny was still full of Russians before 1994.

    Most of the students in the university look like Russians in that video.


    their Western “democratic” friends abroad applauded these churki killing Russians/Slavs. They called these animals “freedom fighters”.
     
    When the Russian army was bombing Russian civilians of Grozny, I wouldn't say Dudaev was worse for Russians than Moscow in 1994/1995.

    Islamists are the CIA and MI6 bastard children. I can’t wait to see the chicken coming home to roost.

     

    Last time I said you reflected the Soviet mentality, you were going to spearfishing, romantic diving instructor. There is also Soviet person's masochistic mentality which was influenced by the KGB. Your children are in Canada. Maybe they can convert in the Canadian mosque?

    Inscha’Allah as our Muslim friends would say…

    Inscha’Allah…
     

    It's funny, in that time, Chechens almost didn't know Islam, not only were there not hijabs in Grozny.

    Look at your favored singer Mutsurayev. He tries to sing copying American early 1990s rock music like Nirvana.

    He wants to have an Islamic theme, but his famous song is "Jerusalem", using the Hebrew name for the city and secular American music, so it is automatically failure.

    How does it compare after Putin's victory in the Second Chechen War. Today there is a real federal funding for the Islamic education. Many women are learning to memorize the Koran in Arabic, with the government money.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @LatW

    This Mutsurayev has really good lyrics.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW

    Mutsurayev looked good when he was young. Now he is just an aging Sufi living in a highland village with his goats and sheep. He did the right thing and ended up at the right place. He will die at home a wiser human being. May we all be granted such an end.

    https://youtu.be/CvHVndNwSEo?feature=shared

    (The comments below the song are worth reading.)

    Replies: @LatW, @Talha

    , @Dmitry
    @LatW

    His musical component is from the fashionable American rock bands, which is why the music doesn't match in my ears lyrics about Chechen nationalism and "Jihad".

    For example, if you listen to his song "Jerusalem", a lot of the harmony is from a famous Beach Boys song.

  102. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I agree that I get bitter when I remember these years. The years 1991 to 1996 have been absolutely remarkable and not in a good sense, although of course there was some good about them. I do my best to feel detached and dispassionate when I recall it all, but sometimes it just gets back at me. And when it happens I feel sorry and guilty for not being a better human. Re. Taoism, I have of course read the Tao te Ching, the stanza that I liked the most was:


    Nature is unkind:
    It treats the creation like sacrificial straw-dogs.
    The Sage is unkind:
    He treats the people like sacrificial straw-dogs.

    How the universe is like a bellows!
    Empty, yet it gives a supply that never fails;
    The more it is worked, the more it brings forth.

    By many words is wit exhausted.
    Rather, therefore, hold to the core.
     

    Of course, it is an imperfect translation.

    (And I do not believe in astrology at all, whatever its cultural variety.)

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    And I do not believe in astrology at all, whatever its cultural variety.

    It’s just a timekeeping mnemonic mechanical invention. And it’s older than any written textbook.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
  103. @LatW
    @Dmitry

    This Mutsurayev has really good lyrics.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Dmitry

    Mutsurayev looked good when he was young. Now he is just an aging Sufi living in a highland village with his goats and sheep. He did the right thing and ended up at the right place. He will die at home a wiser human being. May we all be granted such an end.

    (The comments below the song are worth reading.)

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool

    Mmm, I really like his slightly raspy voice (Dmitry, it's not the grunge vocal fry, it's natural that way). And a bit of exoticism in his accent and style of singing, you can hear it's a Caucasian.. and such beautiful lyrics, very deep and touching. I really liked the one you posted earlier, "Не зови".


    @Dmitry, the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: "Этот храм будет взят и зло уйдет.. Ведь сейчас там собрались силы зла"

    Should they be playing it at the pro-Pali rallies? :)

    Yea, this guy sounds quite determined and feeling strong in his faith. A bit radical even...

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Talha
    @Ivashka the fool

    Thought you might enjoy…
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=s4xoD7h3Mjs&t=20s

    “Sing more of Layla’s charm, dear wine merchant!”

    Peace.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  104. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool


    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast.
     
    Well, that's what I was alluding to, I'm not that well informed on this, but it feels like the Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture. I'm sure many Chechens enjoy having these resources and having "pride" in the Ahmat sila and having a privileged status for their ethnicity, however, I've also heard that some Chechens are not entirely happy about how their cultural code is being altered (and rather fast, at that). That their agreement with the Kremlin was that they remain under Kremlin's control, but that their cultural autonomy is preserved. Of course, this neo-Kadyrovite version of Islam (for the lack of a better term) is coming not from Kremlin, but from this little padishah himself. And it's sad because some of their culture was already destroyed prior and now it's being messed with again.

    It is going archaic at full speed
     
    But it's not the kind of "archaic" that they used to have prior to the Russian colonization or even during the Empire times. Right?

    In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence.
     
    These things can change very quickly, loyalty can be questionable in these kinds of set ups. Recently Kadyrov created another Chechen military unit and he named it after Sheik Mansur - the famous Chechen freedom fighter against the Russian Empire (he fought against Catherine). This happened just now. There is a Chechen unit fighting on the side of Ukraine, also named after Sheik Mansur.

    And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.
     
    Not sure what the atmosphere is like in Tatarstan, I know there were recently issues with the Tatar language. But there are a ton of Russians there.

    Btw, the Muslims all over the world are really riled up now and raging, this may affect the Caucasus.

    Dmytro Korchinskyi recounted gleefully how they cut the throats of young Russian conscripts.
     
    Do you know if he witnessed it himself or just from accounts?

    So when the Chechens were pushing out the Russians from Grozny and other towns (before the war, did it start right after 1991?), they murdered people, too? I read that they took over some Russian people's apartments. I think they may have even killed some Russian women. They seem to have this "dagger culture" and they seem to be very resolute with it. They are notorious for that, and just their ways in general, can be a bit scary.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the war.

    By the way, even today, Chechens and Dagestanis will have mostly the nationalist dislike of Russia or Russians.

    You could see for years in the social media comments if you are part of the Russian internet, they are often writing anti-Russian comments, it’s not from a religious perspective, but a nationalist hatred.

    Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture

    Yes it’s still a fake Islam there, they won’t understand the religion very much. Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a “fake” and synthetic “folklore” appearance, also like people don’t understand what they are doing.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Dmitry


    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.
     
    Of course, they viewed Russians as colonists, this is well known, but I'm just curious about the extent of it.

    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens.

    That Russians didn't have a place outside the city to go to, is very believable, it's the same that we have, even if we have lived in the city for many generations, we still have a country place to go to, because there are relatives or simply second properties there, but they don't because they are relatively recent arrivals (except the Old Believers). Even if a few of them live on the country as well. So this is how they got trapped in the city. Plus they were probably harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country. It's harsh (thinking back, a lot of this crap was just so shameful). It's strange that this wasn't reported in the papers, we never heard about this. Everyone was super busy with themselves at the time. But if people were actually being killed, there should've been news about it (even if the papers were on the Chechen side, it would make sense to report).

    I wonder how this played out in places such as Baku.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the nationalist movement.
     
    Maybe even later than 1995. This is very well known, Dima, among Russia's neighbors because it is a crucial difference. Plus, some of them, such as Basayev come from a long tradition of resistance fighters.

    There was first Dudayev's Ichkeria which wasn't really Islamist fundamentalist. Things were just too unstable during Maskhadov's time due to the ravages of the war. There was chaos. The Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism. Although Maskhadov was always in competition with Basayev. Not all Chechens were content that Basayev associated with Wahhabis. But I think that people like him simply could not acquire other allies. Even people such as Dokka Umarov were initially nationalists, not Islamists (he proclaimed the Imarat Kavkaz only in 2007, after long trials as a nationalist).

    It might be that the teip system was a better way to control their society (although apparently the teips are still in place).

    Btw, Ahmed Zakaev still actively comments on Chechen affairs.

    OMG, Kadyrov has announced that Stalin was a traitor. No, Bashi is right that he feels so confident that he can say or do whatever he likes without consequences. What is Stalin a traitor of? Caucasian interests? What to do now with all the newly erected Stalin's statues?

    Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a “fake” and synthetic “folklore” appearance, also like people don’t understand what they are doing.
     
    One has to skip that then and look further back into the past to find what the real culture was. Interestingly, while reading about Sheikh Mansur, I discovered that Chechnya was islamisized very late, in fact, partly through his efforts. The Nakhs had a really beautiful pagan religion that was still there during the time of Skeikh Mansur.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.
     
    Well, what would be the problem there? That they are close to each other? All I know about the Caucasian dances is that the man and the woman are like a pair of eagles - the man is supposed to hold his arms higher, over the woman, and the woman - lower, she is not allowed to raise her arms above the man's, very beautiful idea, it is almost like he is sheltering and protecting her.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  105. @Ivashka the fool
    @Dmitry

    You don't know what you're talking about Dima. It would be a waste of our time to continue our conversation.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Which part of the comment do you think is incorrect and do you have historical sources? You think Grozny was not full of Russians in December 1994? Or was asking about the mosque your Canadian children would attend according to your own desire for the “Islamic victory against the West” expressed in your comment some kind of sensitive topic?

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    I think he objects to the notion that the Chechen independence movement didn't originate with Islamist fanatics, or the claim Chechens sheltered ethnic Russians once the Russian army began its bombardment of Grozny, but I'm not sure.

    Personally I think if a country as 'fake and gay' as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver

  106. @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW


    As to the video you posted, I wonder how these studies jive with the traditional Chechen cultural code. I might be wrong, but if I recall correctly from some footage from the early 1990s, Chechen women’s head coverings used to be slightly different than in this video – many of them tied it behind the head not under their chin, so their neck was not covered.
     
    The Wahhabi / Salafi Islam eats all these traditions for breakfast. Just look at what happens there now. It is going archaic at full speed and Russians are paying a tribute to Chechnya - billions of dollars every year. Grozny has not only been rebuilt, but it is now one of the most modern and comfortable towns in RF. But people who made it secular are gone. They died or fled for their lives. Chechnya is now way more Islamic than it had ever been since 1917 and possibly even since the Russian conquest. In fact Chechnya is probably getting ready for a new fight for autonomy / independence. And this time it is not only the Caucasus that might get engulfed into conflict but Tatarstan as well.

    https://islamnews.ru/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/1419418802.jpg

    Спасибо Путину за это...

    Replies: @LatW, @Yevardian

    Chechyna, Circassia and the North Caucasus in general still had sizeable native Christian populations prior to Yermolov’s conquests. Islam became associated with resistance to the invader.
    Similarly much of northern Central Asia was nominally Muslim and largely pagan in practice prior to the Russian Empire’s takeover of that region.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
  107. @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool

    Which part of the comment do you think is incorrect and do you have historical sources? You think Grozny was not full of Russians in December 1994? Or was asking about the mosque your Canadian children would attend according to your own desire for the "Islamic victory against the West" expressed in your comment some kind of sensitive topic?

    Replies: @Yevardian

    I think he objects to the notion that the Chechen independence movement didn’t originate with Islamist fanatics, or the claim Chechens sheltered ethnic Russians once the Russian army began its bombardment of Grozny, but I’m not sure.

    Personally I think if a country as ‘fake and gay’ as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Islamist groups were not the leading part of the conflict until after 1995, even later.

    Read Chechen Republic of Ichkeria's constitution, it is writing about the importance of religious freedom, peoples' rights to atheism etc.

    Dudaev was secular nationalist. This is a mainstream history.

    Also, about the Russian civilians of Grozny bombed by Moscow in 1994, it's a famous and mainstream history. Chechen civilians sheltering Russian civilians from the bombing, in history books.

    To know Grozny was still full of Russians in 1994, although less than in 1991. Well, I already posted a video showing that, if you don't believe the history books.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    , @silviosilver
    @Yevardian


    Personally I think if a country as ‘fake and gay’ as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.
     
    That's a crazy idea. Russia never would have survived without that invaluable Chechen territory. Also, Russians might understandably complain about Chechens, but they need to be reminded about all the good things Russia gets from them - where would Russia be without that?
  108. @LatW
    @Dmitry

    This Mutsurayev has really good lyrics.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool, @Dmitry

    His musical component is from the fashionable American rock bands, which is why the music doesn’t match in my ears lyrics about Chechen nationalism and “Jihad”.

    For example, if you listen to his song “Jerusalem”, a lot of the harmony is from a famous Beach Boys song.

  109. @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    I think he objects to the notion that the Chechen independence movement didn't originate with Islamist fanatics, or the claim Chechens sheltered ethnic Russians once the Russian army began its bombardment of Grozny, but I'm not sure.

    Personally I think if a country as 'fake and gay' as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver

    Islamist groups were not the leading part of the conflict until after 1995, even later.

    Read Chechen Republic of Ichkeria’s constitution, it is writing about the importance of religious freedom, peoples’ rights to atheism etc.

    Dudaev was secular nationalist. This is a mainstream history.

    Also, about the Russian civilians of Grozny bombed by Moscow in 1994, it’s a famous and mainstream history. Chechen civilians sheltering Russian civilians from the bombing, in history books.

    To know Grozny was still full of Russians in 1994, although less than in 1991. Well, I already posted a video showing that, if you don’t believe the history books.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    I've read about everything you posted years ago, I was rather wondering if Bashibuzuk was going to object to them here in any substantive way.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  110. @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the war.

    By the way, even today, Chechens and Dagestanis will have mostly the nationalist dislike of Russia or Russians.

    You could see for years in the social media comments if you are part of the Russian internet, they are often writing anti-Russian comments, it's not from a religious perspective, but a nationalist hatred.


    Kadyrovite form of Islam is a bit alien to their original culture

     

    Yes it's still a fake Islam there, they won't understand the religion very much. Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a "fake" and synthetic "folklore" appearance, also like people don't understand what they are doing.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-I9Ka5LhMc

    Replies: @LatW

    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.

    Of course, they viewed Russians as colonists, this is well known, but I’m just curious about the extent of it.

    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens.

    That Russians didn’t have a place outside the city to go to, is very believable, it’s the same that we have, even if we have lived in the city for many generations, we still have a country place to go to, because there are relatives or simply second properties there, but they don’t because they are relatively recent arrivals (except the Old Believers). Even if a few of them live on the country as well. So this is how they got trapped in the city. Plus they were probably harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country. It’s harsh (thinking back, a lot of this crap was just so shameful). It’s strange that this wasn’t reported in the papers, we never heard about this. Everyone was super busy with themselves at the time. But if people were actually being killed, there should’ve been news about it (even if the papers were on the Chechen side, it would make sense to report).

    [MORE]

    I wonder how this played out in places such as Baku.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the nationalist movement.

    Maybe even later than 1995. This is very well known, Dima, among Russia’s neighbors because it is a crucial difference. Plus, some of them, such as Basayev come from a long tradition of resistance fighters.

    There was first Dudayev’s Ichkeria which wasn’t really Islamist fundamentalist. Things were just too unstable during Maskhadov’s time due to the ravages of the war. There was chaos. The Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism. Although Maskhadov was always in competition with Basayev. Not all Chechens were content that Basayev associated with Wahhabis. But I think that people like him simply could not acquire other allies. Even people such as Dokka Umarov were initially nationalists, not Islamists (he proclaimed the Imarat Kavkaz only in 2007, after long trials as a nationalist).

    It might be that the teip system was a better way to control their society (although apparently the teips are still in place).

    Btw, Ahmed Zakaev still actively comments on Chechen affairs.

    OMG, Kadyrov has announced that Stalin was a traitor. No, Bashi is right that he feels so confident that he can say or do whatever he likes without consequences. What is Stalin a traitor of? Caucasian interests? What to do now with all the newly erected Stalin’s statues?

    Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a “fake” and synthetic “folklore” appearance, also like people don’t understand what they are doing.

    One has to skip that then and look further back into the past to find what the real culture was. Interestingly, while reading about Sheikh Mansur, I discovered that Chechnya was islamisized very late, in fact, partly through his efforts. The Nakhs had a really beautiful pagan religion that was still there during the time of Skeikh Mansur.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.

    Well, what would be the problem there? That they are close to each other? All I know about the Caucasian dances is that the man and the woman are like a pair of eagles – the man is supposed to hold his arms higher, over the woman, and the woman – lower, she is not allowed to raise her arms above the man’s, very beautiful idea, it is almost like he is sheltering and protecting her.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW


    what would be the problem there?
     
    Religious Muslim women are not allowed to dance in front of men they are not married to, especially dancing with the male dancers.

    But in most every Kadyrov event, there are women dancing with hijabs, often with male dancers. This is the son of the "Chief Mufti of the Republic of Ichkeria" after the post 1995 Islamist phase.


    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens
     
    It's a very third worldy, as we don't even know how many soldiers were killed in the Second Chechen War. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the Second Chechen War would be even more difficult.

    So, knowing how many died soldiers in the First Chechen War, is even more unlikely. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the First Chechen War, even more unlikely. Although these are all Russian citizens.

    Also probably, we will also never know how many soldiers died in Ukraine since 2022. Since 2015 it is legally a government secret anyway. https://web.archive.org/web/20220123152305/http://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/05/2015/5566d8889a79477ecebe00e8


    harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country

     

    There were nationalist anti-Russian pogroms after the collapse of the Soviet Union which was causing a significant emigration. But the issue is Grozny was still full of Russians when the Moscow is bombing the city in December 1994/1995.

    It's analogy, like if Israel was now bombing Gush Katif, even while more of the Palestinian civilians than Israelis had been able to evacuate Gaza.


    Dudayev’s Ichkeria which wasn’t really Islamist
     
    Dudaev was a bomber pilot of the Soviet air forces, who was proud about bombing of the Mujahideen in the Afghanistan war.

    There are interviews with him on Youtube, he was a postsoviet nationalist/military person with pro-Western views, maybe with a lot of denial about the situation in the republic.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcUibm_P4lc.


    Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism
     
    It's unusual how fast it switched after 1995-1996, from secular nationalist conflict, to an Islamist conflict by 1999.

    There is a change of the funding structure. There is assassination of leaders like Dudaev. It begins marketing as a kind of global jihad after 1995, but the jihadists are entering in the significant numbers after only 1998.

    Replies: @LatW

  111. @Ivashka the fool
    @LatW

    Mutsurayev looked good when he was young. Now he is just an aging Sufi living in a highland village with his goats and sheep. He did the right thing and ended up at the right place. He will die at home a wiser human being. May we all be granted such an end.

    https://youtu.be/CvHVndNwSEo?feature=shared

    (The comments below the song are worth reading.)

    Replies: @LatW, @Talha

    Mmm, I really like his slightly raspy voice (Dmitry, it’s not the grunge vocal fry, it’s natural that way). And a bit of exoticism in his accent and style of singing, you can hear it’s a Caucasian.. and such beautiful lyrics, very deep and touching. I really liked the one you posted earlier, “Не зови“.

    , the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: “Этот храм будет взят и зло уйдет.. Ведь сейчас там собрались силы зла

    Should they be playing it at the pro-Pali rallies? 🙂

    Yea, this guy sounds quite determined and feeling strong in his faith. A bit radical even…

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW


    Dmitry, the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: “Этот
     
    He was trying to be an Islamist, but it shows his low education level about Islam and Jihad, in a kind of comical way typical of secular educated Soviet peoples.

    He is singing using the Jewish name for the city which Arabs call "Al-Quds", "Al-Quds Al-Sharif ", "Bayt al-Muqaddas".

    For political reasons, especially after the Arab-Israel conflict, Arabs try to avoid "Jerusalem". So, the song couldn't be used by Jihadists, as it sounds like it supports the Israeli side.

    Just from the name, it seems to support the non-Arab side of the conflict.

    It's like someone wanted to make an Armenian nationalist song about the city of Stepanakert, to support the Armenians, but you sing about "Khankendi" and don't know the political implication for Armenians.


    there is the traditional Chechen pair dance, with the man being more active and the woman flowing next to him more passively and gracefully. Isn’t this what they’ve always had in their culture?
     
    Yes those are the Caucasian dances, but women dancing with men and in front of men is not allowed in Islam.

    So, Kadyrov is pretending to be an Islamist, son of Mufti.

    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6KdWb5qNVg


    What do you mean? Do you think there was funding from the Saudis?

     

    I'm not a person who knows.

    But the history books and documentaries usually are saying a lot of the funding for global jihad, is from non-official people in the Gulf countries.

    It doesn't mean the official Saudi government are exactly funding, as there are thousands of Saudi princes. There are thousands of wealthy people in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar etc.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  112. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    Most of the anti-Russian pogroms after the Soviet Union collapses were from a nationalist basis. They wanted to remove the Russian population from the region and used violence for this.
     
    Of course, they viewed Russians as colonists, this is well known, but I'm just curious about the extent of it.

    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens.

    That Russians didn't have a place outside the city to go to, is very believable, it's the same that we have, even if we have lived in the city for many generations, we still have a country place to go to, because there are relatives or simply second properties there, but they don't because they are relatively recent arrivals (except the Old Believers). Even if a few of them live on the country as well. So this is how they got trapped in the city. Plus they were probably harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country. It's harsh (thinking back, a lot of this crap was just so shameful). It's strange that this wasn't reported in the papers, we never heard about this. Everyone was super busy with themselves at the time. But if people were actually being killed, there should've been news about it (even if the papers were on the Chechen side, it would make sense to report).

    I wonder how this played out in places such as Baku.

    Although there were soon some jihadist groups developing there, the Islamist groups become powerful only after 1995. Before 1995, the Islamist groups were not the main part of the nationalist movement.
     
    Maybe even later than 1995. This is very well known, Dima, among Russia's neighbors because it is a crucial difference. Plus, some of them, such as Basayev come from a long tradition of resistance fighters.

    There was first Dudayev's Ichkeria which wasn't really Islamist fundamentalist. Things were just too unstable during Maskhadov's time due to the ravages of the war. There was chaos. The Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism. Although Maskhadov was always in competition with Basayev. Not all Chechens were content that Basayev associated with Wahhabis. But I think that people like him simply could not acquire other allies. Even people such as Dokka Umarov were initially nationalists, not Islamists (he proclaimed the Imarat Kavkaz only in 2007, after long trials as a nationalist).

    It might be that the teip system was a better way to control their society (although apparently the teips are still in place).

    Btw, Ahmed Zakaev still actively comments on Chechen affairs.

    OMG, Kadyrov has announced that Stalin was a traitor. No, Bashi is right that he feels so confident that he can say or do whatever he likes without consequences. What is Stalin a traitor of? Caucasian interests? What to do now with all the newly erected Stalin's statues?

    Like most things in the postsoviet and to some extent already in soviet culture has a “fake” and synthetic “folklore” appearance, also like people don’t understand what they are doing.
     
    One has to skip that then and look further back into the past to find what the real culture was. Interestingly, while reading about Sheikh Mansur, I discovered that Chechnya was islamisized very late, in fact, partly through his efforts. The Nakhs had a really beautiful pagan religion that was still there during the time of Skeikh Mansur.

    One of the Grozny Islamic features, is women dancing with men, while using a hijab, which would be a contradiction from the Muslim point of view.
     
    Well, what would be the problem there? That they are close to each other? All I know about the Caucasian dances is that the man and the woman are like a pair of eagles - the man is supposed to hold his arms higher, over the woman, and the woman - lower, she is not allowed to raise her arms above the man's, very beautiful idea, it is almost like he is sheltering and protecting her.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    what would be the problem there?

    Religious Muslim women are not allowed to dance in front of men they are not married to, especially dancing with the male dancers.

    But in most every Kadyrov event, there are women dancing with hijabs, often with male dancers. This is the son of the “Chief Mufti of the Republic of Ichkeria” after the post 1995 Islamist phase.

    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens

    It’s a very third worldy, as we don’t even know how many soldiers were killed in the Second Chechen War. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the Second Chechen War would be even more difficult.

    So, knowing how many died soldiers in the First Chechen War, is even more unlikely. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the First Chechen War, even more unlikely. Although these are all Russian citizens.

    Also probably, we will also never know how many soldiers died in Ukraine since 2022. Since 2015 it is legally a government secret anyway. https://web.archive.org/web/20220123152305/http://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/05/2015/5566d8889a79477ecebe00e8

    harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country

    There were nationalist anti-Russian pogroms after the collapse of the Soviet Union which was causing a significant emigration. But the issue is Grozny was still full of Russians when the Moscow is bombing the city in December 1994/1995.

    It’s analogy, like if Israel was now bombing Gush Katif, even while more of the Palestinian civilians than Israelis had been able to evacuate Gaza.

    Dudayev’s Ichkeria which wasn’t really Islamist

    Dudaev was a bomber pilot of the Soviet air forces, who was proud about bombing of the Mujahideen in the Afghanistan war.

    There are interviews with him on Youtube, he was a postsoviet nationalist/military person with pro-Western views, maybe with a lot of denial about the situation in the republic.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcUibm_P4lc.

    Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism

    It’s unusual how fast it switched after 1995-1996, from secular nationalist conflict, to an Islamist conflict by 1999.

    There is a change of the funding structure. There is assassination of leaders like Dudaev. It begins marketing as a kind of global jihad after 1995, but the jihadists are entering in the significant numbers after only 1998.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Dmitry


    Religious Muslim women are not allowed to dance in front of men they are not married to, especially dancing with the male dancers.
     
    Ok. But there is the traditional Chechen pair dance, with the man being more active and the woman flowing next to him more passively and gracefully. Isn't this what they've always had in their culture?

    Dudaev was a bomber pilot of the Soviet air forces, who was proud about bombing of the Mujahideen in the Afghanistan war.
     
    I know, he was in Estonia for a while and refused to attack Estonians. I've watched most of his footage. Did you know that he predicted the Russo-Ukrainian war - he said "Russia is yet to fight Ukraine".

    And he said "Россия изчезнет, когда взойдет украинское солнце" ("Russia will disappear when the Ukrainian sun will rise".


    There is a change of the funding structure.
     
    What do you mean? Do you think there was funding from the Saudis?
  113. @Dmitry
    @LatW


    what would be the problem there?
     
    Religious Muslim women are not allowed to dance in front of men they are not married to, especially dancing with the male dancers.

    But in most every Kadyrov event, there are women dancing with hijabs, often with male dancers. This is the son of the "Chief Mufti of the Republic of Ichkeria" after the post 1995 Islamist phase.


    I wonder what number of Russians died in the Grozny bombings and what number were ethnic Chechens
     
    It's a very third worldy, as we don't even know how many soldiers were killed in the Second Chechen War. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the Second Chechen War would be even more difficult.

    So, knowing how many died soldiers in the First Chechen War, is even more unlikely. Knowing how many civilians were killed in the First Chechen War, even more unlikely. Although these are all Russian citizens.

    Also probably, we will also never know how many soldiers died in Ukraine since 2022. Since 2015 it is legally a government secret anyway. https://web.archive.org/web/20220123152305/http://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/05/2015/5566d8889a79477ecebe00e8


    harassed by Chechens who wanted to get them out and have a homogeneous country

     

    There were nationalist anti-Russian pogroms after the collapse of the Soviet Union which was causing a significant emigration. But the issue is Grozny was still full of Russians when the Moscow is bombing the city in December 1994/1995.

    It's analogy, like if Israel was now bombing Gush Katif, even while more of the Palestinian civilians than Israelis had been able to evacuate Gaza.


    Dudayev’s Ichkeria which wasn’t really Islamist
     
    Dudaev was a bomber pilot of the Soviet air forces, who was proud about bombing of the Mujahideen in the Afghanistan war.

    There are interviews with him on Youtube, he was a postsoviet nationalist/military person with pro-Western views, maybe with a lot of denial about the situation in the republic.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcUibm_P4lc.


    Chechens were so bled out and ravaged that they had no other choice but to turn to Islamism
     
    It's unusual how fast it switched after 1995-1996, from secular nationalist conflict, to an Islamist conflict by 1999.

    There is a change of the funding structure. There is assassination of leaders like Dudaev. It begins marketing as a kind of global jihad after 1995, but the jihadists are entering in the significant numbers after only 1998.

    Replies: @LatW

    Religious Muslim women are not allowed to dance in front of men they are not married to, especially dancing with the male dancers.

    Ok. But there is the traditional Chechen pair dance, with the man being more active and the woman flowing next to him more passively and gracefully. Isn’t this what they’ve always had in their culture?

    Dudaev was a bomber pilot of the Soviet air forces, who was proud about bombing of the Mujahideen in the Afghanistan war.

    I know, he was in Estonia for a while and refused to attack Estonians. I’ve watched most of his footage. Did you know that he predicted the Russo-Ukrainian war – he said “Russia is yet to fight Ukraine”.

    And he said “Россия изчезнет, когда взойдет украинское солнце” (“Russia will disappear when the Ukrainian sun will rise”.

    There is a change of the funding structure.

    What do you mean? Do you think there was funding from the Saudis?

  114. @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    I think he objects to the notion that the Chechen independence movement didn't originate with Islamist fanatics, or the claim Chechens sheltered ethnic Russians once the Russian army began its bombardment of Grozny, but I'm not sure.

    Personally I think if a country as 'fake and gay' as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @silviosilver

    Personally I think if a country as ‘fake and gay’ as Belarus was granted sovereignty then Chechnya certainly merited it.

    That’s a crazy idea. Russia never would have survived without that invaluable Chechen territory. Also, Russians might understandably complain about Chechens, but they need to be reminded about all the good things Russia gets from them – where would Russia be without that?

  115. @LatW
    @Ivashka the fool

    Mmm, I really like his slightly raspy voice (Dmitry, it's not the grunge vocal fry, it's natural that way). And a bit of exoticism in his accent and style of singing, you can hear it's a Caucasian.. and such beautiful lyrics, very deep and touching. I really liked the one you posted earlier, "Не зови".


    @Dmitry, the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: "Этот храм будет взят и зло уйдет.. Ведь сейчас там собрались силы зла"

    Should they be playing it at the pro-Pali rallies? :)

    Yea, this guy sounds quite determined and feeling strong in his faith. A bit radical even...

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Dmitry, the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: “Этот

    He was trying to be an Islamist, but it shows his low education level about Islam and Jihad, in a kind of comical way typical of secular educated Soviet peoples.

    He is singing using the Jewish name for the city which Arabs call “Al-Quds”, “Al-Quds Al-Sharif “, “Bayt al-Muqaddas”.

    For political reasons, especially after the Arab-Israel conflict, Arabs try to avoid “Jerusalem”. So, the song couldn’t be used by Jihadists, as it sounds like it supports the Israeli side.

    Just from the name, it seems to support the non-Arab side of the conflict.

    It’s like someone wanted to make an Armenian nationalist song about the city of Stepanakert, to support the Armenians, but you sing about “Khankendi” and don’t know the political implication for Armenians.

    there is the traditional Chechen pair dance, with the man being more active and the woman flowing next to him more passively and gracefully. Isn’t this what they’ve always had in their culture?

    Yes those are the Caucasian dances, but women dancing with men and in front of men is not allowed in Islam.

    So, Kadyrov is pretending to be an Islamist, son of Mufti.

    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.

    What do you mean? Do you think there was funding from the Saudis?

    I’m not a person who knows.

    But the history books and documentaries usually are saying a lot of the funding for global jihad, is from non-official people in the Gulf countries.

    It doesn’t mean the official Saudi government are exactly funding, as there are thousands of Saudi princes. There are thousands of wealthy people in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar etc.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.
     
    He appears to take some parts of Islam quite seriously, though, such as murdering gay people.

    Replies: @silviosilver

  116. @Dmitry
    @LatW


    Dmitry, the song Jerusalem has the following lyrics: “Этот
     
    He was trying to be an Islamist, but it shows his low education level about Islam and Jihad, in a kind of comical way typical of secular educated Soviet peoples.

    He is singing using the Jewish name for the city which Arabs call "Al-Quds", "Al-Quds Al-Sharif ", "Bayt al-Muqaddas".

    For political reasons, especially after the Arab-Israel conflict, Arabs try to avoid "Jerusalem". So, the song couldn't be used by Jihadists, as it sounds like it supports the Israeli side.

    Just from the name, it seems to support the non-Arab side of the conflict.

    It's like someone wanted to make an Armenian nationalist song about the city of Stepanakert, to support the Armenians, but you sing about "Khankendi" and don't know the political implication for Armenians.


    there is the traditional Chechen pair dance, with the man being more active and the woman flowing next to him more passively and gracefully. Isn’t this what they’ve always had in their culture?
     
    Yes those are the Caucasian dances, but women dancing with men and in front of men is not allowed in Islam.

    So, Kadyrov is pretending to be an Islamist, son of Mufti.

    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6KdWb5qNVg


    What do you mean? Do you think there was funding from the Saudis?

     

    I'm not a person who knows.

    But the history books and documentaries usually are saying a lot of the funding for global jihad, is from non-official people in the Gulf countries.

    It doesn't mean the official Saudi government are exactly funding, as there are thousands of Saudi princes. There are thousands of wealthy people in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar etc.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.

    He appears to take some parts of Islam quite seriously, though, such as murdering gay people.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Mr. XYZ

    It just goes to show - there's good in everyone. :)

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  117. @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    But you can see how much they follow of Islam.
     
    He appears to take some parts of Islam quite seriously, though, such as murdering gay people.

    Replies: @silviosilver

    It just goes to show – there’s good in everyone. 🙂

    • LOL: QCIC
    • Troll: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @silviosilver

    Your ublock howto works here too until you tube wises up.

    Thank you sir!

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  118. @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Islamist groups were not the leading part of the conflict until after 1995, even later.

    Read Chechen Republic of Ichkeria's constitution, it is writing about the importance of religious freedom, peoples' rights to atheism etc.

    Dudaev was secular nationalist. This is a mainstream history.

    Also, about the Russian civilians of Grozny bombed by Moscow in 1994, it's a famous and mainstream history. Chechen civilians sheltering Russian civilians from the bombing, in history books.

    To know Grozny was still full of Russians in 1994, although less than in 1991. Well, I already posted a video showing that, if you don't believe the history books.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    I’ve read about everything you posted years ago, I was rather wondering if Bashibuzuk was going to object to them here in any substantive way.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Yevardian

    No I won't. I'll leave it at that. I remember it all, while Dima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display. He is writing in bad faith. Happens to the best of us.

    OTOH, you are correct when you mention that DICh and Adhyge territory still had remnants of early Christian and even pagan beliefs when the Russian army invaded. But it doesn't mean that these territories were not under Islamic control. In fact, without Russian intervention back then, Christian Geirgians (of all tribal or should I write ethnic group background ?) and Alans would have become a negligeable minority In their lands. The Caucasus would be entirely divided between Ottoman Empire and Persian Empire if Russians didn't venture into a conquest of that territory.

    As a side note, the Terek cossack host is quite an old one, the name Chechnya itself being of Terek Cossack use because the Vainakhs never used this term for their lands. Terek Cossacks are nearly extinct nowadays, due to the Judeo-Bolshevik genocide of the 1918 -1941 period and the Vainakh genocide after 1992. Some of the pre-Islamic Caucasus Christian population has joined the Cossack and became slavicized. Not only around Terek, but even in modern day Ukraine. That is why the Cossack were often named черкесы in the Muscovite chronicles dating to the 16th century. Mr Hack has commented once about Mazepa having had Circassian (Adhyge) ancestry. It is an interesting topic, although not directly related to the discussion about Ichkeria.

  119. @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    I've read about everything you posted years ago, I was rather wondering if Bashibuzuk was going to object to them here in any substantive way.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    No I won’t. I’ll leave it at that. I remember it all, while Dima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display. He is writing in bad faith. Happens to the best of us.

    OTOH, you are correct when you mention that DICh and Adhyge territory still had remnants of early Christian and even pagan beliefs when the Russian army invaded. But it doesn’t mean that these territories were not under Islamic control. In fact, without Russian intervention back then, Christian Geirgians (of all tribal or should I write ethnic group background ?) and Alans would have become a negligeable minority In their lands. The Caucasus would be entirely divided between Ottoman Empire and Persian Empire if Russians didn’t venture into a conquest of that territory.

    As a side note, the Terek cossack host is quite an old one, the name Chechnya itself being of Terek Cossack use because the Vainakhs never used this term for their lands. Terek Cossacks are nearly extinct nowadays, due to the Judeo-Bolshevik genocide of the 1918 -1941 period and the Vainakh genocide after 1992. Some of the pre-Islamic Caucasus Christian population has joined the Cossack and became slavicized. Not only around Terek, but even in modern day Ukraine. That is why the Cossack were often named черкесы in the Muscovite chronicles dating to the 16th century. Mr Hack has commented once about Mazepa having had Circassian (Adhyge) ancestry. It is an interesting topic, although not directly related to the discussion about Ichkeria.

  120. No I won’t. I’ll leave it at that. I remember it all, while Dima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display. He is writing in bad faith. Happens to the best of us.

    Well, I’d (and probably a few others) be interested in what you’d have to say on the subject, but if you don’t want to get drawn into a long argument with Dmitry, I understand.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Yevardian

    I have written about it in the past, under my Ano and Bashi pseudonyms. I remember having an exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly "hero of Russia" Kadyrov bragged about his first "killing a Russian" aged 16. That is all one needs to know about RusFed, Chechnya and Noviop ethnic politics.

    I won't get into it all again except by suggesting one more time to those interested to read the excellent book by Paul Khlebnikov "Conversation with a barbarian". Khlebnikov got killed either for publishing that book or the one that followed about Berezovskyi. Anyone who would like to understand better what happened in RF in the 90ies should look into these two books. It could also be useful to understand the future interactions with Islamic minorities in the West.

    Speaking of which, France has just announced that it is ready to deport back to RF 39 "radical Russian citizens who supported Palestinian terrorism". Many Ichkerian fighters have found refuge in France, Austria and Germany, they were quite useful in Syrian civil war and now in Ukraine. But today they are deemed too dangerous to keep in the EU. Of course, they were as radical and as dangerous back in the 90ies in RF, but they were called "freedom fighters" then.

    Fact is, as long as we have double standards, we won't have peace in this world. If we cry for Hamas victims, but don't give a squat about those who were slayed in Beslan, then it is pure hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Emil Nikola Richard

  121. @Yevardian

    No I won’t. I’ll leave it at that. I remember it all, while Dima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display. He is writing in bad faith. Happens to the best of us.
     
    Well, I'd (and probably a few others) be interested in what you'd have to say on the subject, but if you don't want to get drawn into a long argument with Dmitry, I understand.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    I have written about it in the past, under my Ano and Bashi pseudonyms. I remember having an exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly “hero of Russia” Kadyrov bragged about his first “killing a Russian” aged 16. That is all one needs to know about RusFed, Chechnya and Noviop ethnic politics.

    I won’t get into it all again except by suggesting one more time to those interested to read the excellent book by Paul Khlebnikov “Conversation with a barbarian”. Khlebnikov got killed either for publishing that book or the one that followed about Berezovskyi. Anyone who would like to understand better what happened in RF in the 90ies should look into these two books. It could also be useful to understand the future interactions with Islamic minorities in the West.

    Speaking of which, France has just announced that it is ready to deport back to RF 39 “radical Russian citizens who supported Palestinian terrorism”. Many Ichkerian fighters have found refuge in France, Austria and Germany, they were quite useful in Syrian civil war and now in Ukraine. But today they are deemed too dangerous to keep in the EU. Of course, they were as radical and as dangerous back in the 90ies in RF, but they were called “freedom fighters” then.

    Fact is, as long as we have double standards, we won’t have peace in this world. If we cry for Hamas victims, but don’t give a squat about those who were slayed in Beslan, then it is pure hypocrisy.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Ivashka the fool


    exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly “hero of Russia” Kadyrov
     
    This is actually how I came to this forum.

    Karlin was arguing with me in the Sailer thread, saying there is no evidence Akhmad Kadyrov said to kill as many Russians as possible. This video probably didn't exist.

    But it's just one of the most popular videos about him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oABjZ7_krBQ


    ima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display.
     
    Everything I write matches with historical sources, so "discussing it with him is absolutely useless".

    I know you prefer something about Klaus Schwab and which releases some dopamine for you.

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool


    Paul Khlebnikov “Conversation with a barbarian”
     
    Amazon does not have that one. They had this one:

    https://www.amazon.com/Godfather-Kremlin-Decline-Gangster-Capitalism/dp/0156013304

    When I loaded that page the number one customer recommendation in the footer was the new Bronze Age Pervert book. Selective Breeding and the Birth of Philosophy.

    I hope the algorithm wasn't looking at me. Was the algorithm looking at you?

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  122. @German_reader

    There’s actually growing evidence that a large fraction of all the Israeli civilians killed in the Hamas attack actually died from the friendly fire of the disorganized and confused Israeli military forces who counter-attacked.
     
    There seems to be a lot of footage showing deliberate killings of Israeli civilians by Hamas fighters. Some apparently of a fairly disturbing nature ( https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/why-israeli-officials-screened-footage-hamas-attack/675735/ ).
    Hamas has never had a problem with targeting civilians. That was evident even 20 or 30 years ago in their suicide attacks on public transport and the like.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @yakushimaru, @ShortOnTime

    The footage of that Filipino migrant laborer having his head mauled with a shovel was wild. Idk if it was Hamas or ordinary Gazans, but that guy already had a gunshot wound in the stomach.

    Anyway, what really matters is whether Israel’s upcoming ground offensive into Gaza succeeds as smoothly as possible or gets bogged down. If it takes Israel more than 3 months to conquer Gaza, then Israel’s most likely going to face serious problems. If Israel ends up agreeing or having to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas or some sort of status quo ante restoration, then it’s hard to read that as anything else than a defeat for Israel.

    Otherwise, the only thing I care about is that Greek Orthodox Church and the Christian Palestinians that Israel bombed in Gaza but no one is paying any attention to.

  123. @AP
    @Beckow


    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia
     
    One of the boldest lies yet.

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Most of the time when Russia wins is when it fights a tiny country like Georgia or Finland, or if someone tries to conquer the Muscovite heartland as did Napoleon or Hitler.

    And even then, Russia couldn’t have done it without Ukrainian help.

    “Nobody has succeeded against Russia” - lol.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Mr. Hack, @Beckow, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.

    Still, it’s true that Patriotic War 1941-1945 and Napoleon’s 1812 Invasion of Russia are cited too often. At least you’re coming up with better history analogies than all those foreign affairs and twitter/x writers that spent the last few months trying to meme WW2 1944-1945 Western Front from D-Day to breaching the German Westwall/Siegfried Line into Ukraine’s 2023 Zaporozhye Offensive.

    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia. Those examples suggest many years of long and protracted wars with extensive periods of stalemate where the balance finally tips to one side or the other in complex changes of circumstances across decades and even centuries.

    • Replies: @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.
     
    An interesting redefinition of success.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.


    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia.
     
    Ever since Khmelnytsky's treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    A key differences: Ukraine has been supplied well, but not equipped as well as Poland was. The French went all-in when helping Poland, while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons - if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms. Instead, Ukraine was able to defeat the Russian attempts to occupy the country and to take back many of its lands but not quickly or comprehensively enough to prevent the Russians from consolidating their positions in the South, resulting in a much more drawn-out war.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North's industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn't come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

  124. @Ivashka the fool
    @Europe Europa

    In Dagestan, the natives have just taken over the airport to prevent the landing of a plane which was coming from Tel Aviv. Somebody shared on social media that the plane was supposedly bringing some Jewish refugees. In the Caucasus republics the local Borats are ready for pogroms and sign petitions in support of Palestinians. Sooner or later it will spread to the rest of Rus Fed and in due time to the rest of the European countries where the Muslim populations are increasing year after year. As I wrote time and again, the Jews are taken into this cycle of chutzpah - pogroms - chutzpah, they always overreach and provoke a karmic backslash. It is as mentally/psychologically kosher as gefilte fish...

    Replies: @Dmitry, @ShortOnTime

    Dagestan events seem to explain some of why Kremlin and Putin adopted some pro-Palestine rhetoric.

    Easy to forget Muslims and Ramzan Kadyrov as head of Chechen feudal fiefdom (idk best way to describe informal arrangement between Putin and Kadyrov) are a noteworthy constituency of the Kremlin. As banal as it sounds, adopting some Palestine sympathetic rhetoric (only rooted in long unrealized 2 state solution) to reduce Muslim unrest and “reward” efforts of pro-Kadyrov Chechens fighting in Ukraine is least Kremlin elite can do. Probably best course of action too.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @ShortOnTime

    Under the surface, Ramzan Kadyrov is probably quite "pro-Israel". Well, it's a mafia leader, they don't really care or have some view based in reason of principles.

    Kadyrov funds Abu Ghosh, which is famous for the harmony between Jews and Arabs.

    He visits Israel for those official ceremonies.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ex_brfHLJE

    There was also a lot of discussions where Kadyrov is saying things like "we need to be like Israel", which is just common for most of the postsoviet politicians as they viewed it as a development model including in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia etc.

    -

    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn't likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.

    It was a military coup with some powerful mafia on their side. The republic's army was competent in the beginning because they were veterans of the Soviet army, who had included some important commanders from the Afghanistan war.

    Dudaev was actually an important aviation commander in the Afghanistan war. Kadyrov was unusual as an Islamic faction there, this is why he was added as the Chief Mufti to represent the Islamist part of the government.

    Replies: @LatW

  125. To relax from some of events in the news I have been listening to this old classic:

    The mellow jazz combines really well with the haunting cry of the loon.

  126. @Beckow
    @AP

    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self. Obviously the triffles like Poland don't matter - I was clearly referring to the Euro-civilizational attacks on Russia: Poles in 17th century, Swedes in 18th century, Napoleon, Hitler. If you are too stupid to see that I can't help you.

    Ukies - as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies - have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost. So much for their indispensable help.

    So stop dreaming up "victories" and focus on the unfolding disaster in front of us as another Euro conquer-Russia crusade is falling apart. Or aren't you supposed to be by Azov Sea by now? What happened to your "paused offensive"?

    Replies: @AP

    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self.

    You claimed nobody ever succeded against Russia.

    I pointed out that the Afghanis, Poles, Germans, and Japanese each defeated Russia.

    As usual, when your lies are exposed you cry “autism.”

    Obviously the triffles like Poland don’t matter

    Russians committed a million soldiers in their failed war against Poland.

    That this was a “trifle” is another lie.

    Ukies – as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies – have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost.

    In World War II 90% of Ukrainians fought for the Soviets. This is why the Soviets won.

    In 1920 the Ukrainians weren’t fighting for the Soviets in significant numbers. But some fought alongside the Poles. Poland won.

    In 1709, Ukrainians were split. The Swedish King was too impatient and did not wait for the Ukrainian Hetman to consolidate his forces and get them out of Russia.

    Prior to 1648 Ukrainians fought alongside Poles. They defeated Russians repeatedly, and even captured Moscow once. Although they were driven out of the Russian capital they still won that war, having gained territory by the peace treaty that ended it.. Kind of like the USSR defeating Finland in 1939.

    So stop dreaming up “victories”

    Lie that victories were dreamed up.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    As always you double down on your idiocy. I wrote:


    ...the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians failed…
     
    Do you understand the meaning of "all-European"? Let me give you a hint: Japan, Afghanistan or Poland in 1920 were not all-European attacks on Russia. So why do you go of into the weeds and bring up unrelated stuff?

    The current war is closest to an all-European assault on Russia - just like Napoleon, Hitler, or Swedes Poles, Ottomans. They all failed, some catastrophically. You are free to dream of Afghanis or Japan, those were not existential conflicts. We can make the same list about US: from Vietnam to Afghanistan a chain of lost wars, but it doesn't matter. Learn how to think straight.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  127. Visual geopolitical symbolics from official Iran – whole Caspian sea is being regarded as their own;)

    • Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @sudden death

    Sarmatia Asiatica and Sarmatia Europea are True Brothers.

    Kontušas.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQkj_6qJaamkGNtpnNANh4shQM6pdWddLYyzg&usqp.jpg

    , @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @sudden death

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Salamis

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTRk_UFz-VcZf1I4iCR3voL3Sfujvwduvq7FQ&usqp.jpg

  128. @ShortOnTime
    @AP


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856
     
    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia's favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.

    Still, it's true that Patriotic War 1941-1945 and Napoleon's 1812 Invasion of Russia are cited too often. At least you're coming up with better history analogies than all those foreign affairs and twitter/x writers that spent the last few months trying to meme WW2 1944-1945 Western Front from D-Day to breaching the German Westwall/Siegfried Line into Ukraine's 2023 Zaporozhye Offensive.

    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia. Those examples suggest many years of long and protracted wars with extensive periods of stalemate where the balance finally tips to one side or the other in complex changes of circumstances across decades and even centuries.

    Replies: @AP

    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.

    An interesting redefinition of success.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.

    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia.

    Ever since Khmelnytsky’s treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    A key differences: Ukraine has been supplied well, but not equipped as well as Poland was. The French went all-in when helping Poland, while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons – if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms. Instead, Ukraine was able to defeat the Russian attempts to occupy the country and to take back many of its lands but not quickly or comprehensively enough to prevent the Russians from consolidating their positions in the South, resulting in a much more drawn-out war.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North’s industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn’t come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @AP


    IF the North hadn’t come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman
     
    The course of the conflict was much tooo overdetermined for personalities to have made a difference Confederate Secretary of State Robert Toombs to Davis expressing dissent about the Confederacy's attack on Fort Sumter."Mr. President, at this time it is suicide, murder, and will lose us every friend at the North. You will wantonly strike a hornet's nest which extends from mountain to ocean, and legions now quiet will swarm out and sting us to death. It is unnecessary; it puts us in the wrong; it is fatal.". Had Toombs not had a drink problem he might well have been the Confederate President instead of Davis. Subsequently resigning and opposing measures such as conscription, Toombs had never believed a Civil War to be winnable by the South; few historians today would disagree.

    Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.
     

    Forcing them out of Ukraine might have been doable with sufficient top notch arms from the US at an early stage, but having done that how would Ukraine have leverage to force Russia to the table and get them to agree to peace? Russia would have nothing to gain at all by officially ceasing hostilities, and much to lose.


    Chael Sonnen said the Fury Vs. (MMA fighter) Ngannou bout exposed professional boxing as no test of skill but rather requiring specialised stamina with the key being a superior lactic acid clearing between rounds that takes decades to build. So a particular type of endurance is what is being tested (unless there is a knockout or TKO in the early rounds). Ali was never known for early knockouts. Hence, pro boxing is a fraud; it is not what people think it is. I think there is an analogy with the war. In Ukraine it is now generally acknowledged to have been making a huge mistake to not follow up the successes of last year. Such an oppertunity will not come again. Russia has the ability to recharge its batteries, so to speak, and the delay gave then the chance to use it.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons – if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.
     
    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden? For all I know, he might have gotten scared of nuclear war and thus agreed to throw Ukraine under the Russian bus in early 2022. In real life, right before the invasion, Trump praises Putin as very smart for occupying the Donbass:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    , @ShortOnTime
    @AP


    An interesting redefinition of success.

     

    There seems to be no consensus on what you define or mean as a successful war against Russia.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.

     

    Clearly you've noticed that history is impermanent and that with enough time nothing is impossible.

    Ever since Khmelnytsky’s treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.
     

    Ignoring the fact that Ukrainian Galician nationalism has its roots in Poland forcibly imposing Roman Catholicism even before the Union of Brest, the Polish-Soviet War is the most nonsensical analogy. It constituted a single failed mad dash by the Bolsheviks on Warsaw when the Whites were still around and multiple other rebellions were popping simultaneously in their core areas. Also, the Bolsheviks simply waited to come back again in 1939 as you presumably well know with the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

    The Bolsheviks also didn't care about annexing specific Polish provinces and entrenching them with defensive fortifications. Poland didn't make a failed offensive or "counter-offensive" against the Bolsheviks either. That's as far as analogies to the present Ukraine War.

    Otherwise, as a point of history, it's worth stating Poland brought the Bolshevik/Communist onslaught upon itself by turning against the Russian Whites (Britain took the lead in this though) back when Yudenich and Denikin were poised to make their moves on Moscow in 1919. Poland's intervention in Ukraine during the Russian Civil War also harmed all the other actors besides the Bolsheviks.

    As for Russia and the current war since the post-Soviet decline, nations and empires can revive themselves again as history records instances of that. More recently, China overcame Tiananmen Square in 1991 and other internal conflicts between various cliques and is now stronger than it's ever been in 2023 since the 18th century. In Turkey the 2016 coup attempt failed and despite economic issues regarding the currency, Erdogan has purged everyone else and made multiple successful military gambits in Turkey's neighborhood. Could be too early to say, but with the suppression of the Prigozhin mutiny, perhaps Russia too could be on an a process of a belated rise and reconsolidation.

    Regarding Ukraine "lavishly equipped by the West", that may not outlast a few more years as the current Mid-East War illustrates (notice the diversion of all the 155mm artillery ammunition from Ukraine to Israel lol) and any trouble over China-Taiwan that may yet come.

    Admittedly, there are just too many variables which is why only short term predictions about these sorts of international affairs are the only feasible and realistic ones to make.


    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North’s industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn’t come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

     

    The US Civil War analogy but with significant foreign meddling is a decent one. In that sense the Korean War too. Ted Galen Carpenter expounded upon it best out of everyone I've seen in that regard:

    https://www.cato.org/commentary/unwarranted-optimism

    Replies: @AP

  129. @Sher Singh
    @Sher Singh

    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines - the latter a whore.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans is evidence of your lack of faith.
    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian - there is neither Greek nor Jew.

    A devout Nigerian preacher is more of a Christian than you.
    You should go wash his feet, instead of arguing with racist tribalists like us.

    ਅਕਾਲ

    Replies: @AP

    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines

    Mary was descended from King David’s son Nathan.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans

    It’s just reality.

    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian – there is neither Greek nor Jew.

    Correct.

    Why do you think there is a contradiction between those two facts – that Jesus’s father was the universal God of gods first recognized and worshipped by the Aryans and that He was an incarnation of Him – and that one need not be an Aryan to be a Christian?

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @AP

    King David's is not an Aryan lineage.
    This is just Gen X inability to fully commit to either Nationalism or Christianity.

    Have seen the same thing from Jim over at blog.jim.com
    There's no point convincing your generation, and none either believes this.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  130. Why is it always Britain that is expected to apologise for colonialism? Maybe I’m mistaken, but to my knowledge no other country goes around apologising for their history in the same way, maybe with the exception of Germany, which by association puts British history in the same category. On that note, there is a big leftist agenda to revision Churchill as a Hitler-esque figure.

    I don’t see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @Europe Europa

    The British empire really did cause trouble in a lot of places through the mass immigration it facilitated (apart from Palestine also Sri Lanka, Fiji, Burma…and probably much more, all societies riven by ethnic conflict). Should have been a cautionary tale about the perils of mass immigration.

    , @Coconuts
    @Europe Europa

    This post-colonial stuff has a rich history in France and the critique has probably been fiercer there.

    With Britain the empire was so big it is bound to arise. I think colonialism became a bigger topic in the UK due to populism an Brexit, imo pro-remainers were trying to use it to explain away the pro-Brexit vote as being motivated by racism and imperialism.

    And I guess it is useful to defend high levels of immigration and demographic change as well. There are more people in the UK, especially England, with ancestry from former colonies than ever before.

    The US, Australia, Canada, all are into this topic at the moment.

    Spain and Portugal, the criticism is there but they race-mixed on a much bigger scale and created many mestizos and mixed people in their former colonies which complicates it. They were also quite poor compared to other European countries into the 20th century, I would think it makes arguments that their colonialism enriched the population in general harder to sustain.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Europe Europa


    I don’t see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.
     
    There probably is for France in regards to Algeria, honestly.
  131. @Europe Europa
    Why is it always Britain that is expected to apologise for colonialism? Maybe I'm mistaken, but to my knowledge no other country goes around apologising for their history in the same way, maybe with the exception of Germany, which by association puts British history in the same category. On that note, there is a big leftist agenda to revision Churchill as a Hitler-esque figure.

    I don't see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Coconuts, @Mr. XYZ

    The British empire really did cause trouble in a lot of places through the mass immigration it facilitated (apart from Palestine also Sri Lanka, Fiji, Burma…and probably much more, all societies riven by ethnic conflict). Should have been a cautionary tale about the perils of mass immigration.

    • Agree: S
  132. @Europe Europa
    Why is it always Britain that is expected to apologise for colonialism? Maybe I'm mistaken, but to my knowledge no other country goes around apologising for their history in the same way, maybe with the exception of Germany, which by association puts British history in the same category. On that note, there is a big leftist agenda to revision Churchill as a Hitler-esque figure.

    I don't see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Coconuts, @Mr. XYZ

    This post-colonial stuff has a rich history in France and the critique has probably been fiercer there.

    With Britain the empire was so big it is bound to arise. I think colonialism became a bigger topic in the UK due to populism an Brexit, imo pro-remainers were trying to use it to explain away the pro-Brexit vote as being motivated by racism and imperialism.

    And I guess it is useful to defend high levels of immigration and demographic change as well. There are more people in the UK, especially England, with ancestry from former colonies than ever before.

    The US, Australia, Canada, all are into this topic at the moment.

    Spain and Portugal, the criticism is there but they race-mixed on a much bigger scale and created many mestizos and mixed people in their former colonies which complicates it. They were also quite poor compared to other European countries into the 20th century, I would think it makes arguments that their colonialism enriched the population in general harder to sustain.

  133. from the previous thread

    I don’t doubt it’s fun. And perhaps if it was merely fun, I wouldn’t have anything to say about it. But it’s the kind of “fun” one gets from receiving Likes – particularly those most pointedly aimed at gaining attention. It’s fun in the moment, but it wears off quickly, and you’re left seeking another “hit” – and not getting one leaves you feeling way more down than you really should.

    How about just letting her deal with that? She’s a pretty intelligent woman. There’s no way she doesn’t realize all of this will come to an end. In fact, it’s already come to an end, as she didn’t manage to keep any stable relationship and she’s going to die childless, so why not let her make the most out of life the way she can?

    I don’t very well understand why songbird and (in a more moderate way) yourself are so judgemental about how women should manage their beauty. If anything, I would rather worry about the current trend in the West of young women not taking too much care about their looks than mature women doing the opposite. That’s what really makes the world be worse than it should. Nature also has a very efficient way of dealing with older women who show off more than they should for their own good. First, most of them (with some exceptions, like the one we’re commenting) are going to get plenty of rejection from men and second and perhaps more important, women are great at policing themselves. As a general rule, we’re not as cruel as they are with each other. In fact, Ann Coulter herself is bitching about other women all the time. So the situation just tends to resolve by itself, as women are very social creatures that need constant validation.

    Secondly, even if it’s actual fun, it’s a case of what is good for the individual isn’t so great for the collective. Flaunting an image of sexiness at a ripe age tends to suggest she’s “living the dream.” But what kind of dream is it, really? It sends the message to other women that “I want to be like that and I can be like that.” But in reality, serial monogamy isn’t a recipe for lasting happiness

    Is this really so different from a 73 old man showing his extraordinary physical powers? It can also lead to other men thinking “I want to be like that and I can be like that.” But 99.99% of them will fail, may actually get injured in their pursuit and feel disappointed when they find out that they can’t possibly be like that. It’s just a matter of both men and women being realistic with their lives rather than policing what people do and what “message” it sends.

    I don’t really think there’s much of a message in a 60 year old woman still looking good in miniskirts or a 73 year old man winning grip strength championships. It’s great that they can and to me that’s all there is to it.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikel


    But 99.99% of them will fail, may actually get injured in their pursuit and feel disappointed when they find out that they can’t possibly be like that.
     
    Wait. You mean I'm never going to lift 500 pounds?

    Oh shit.

    Ann Coulter is a performing artist. Any buzz is good. She loves that Songbird and Silva post trash talk about her.

    Replies: @A123

    , @silviosilver
    @Mikel


    How about just letting her deal with that?
     
    I'm not sure what the point of this rhetorical question is, since I'm obviously not making any effort to stop her. And what if I said to you "why not just let Russia deal with that?" when you bring up the "hiding in their cellars" statement for the umpteenth time? Maybe you'd say it needs to be discussed because it has repercussions for the rest of us. Well, that's the attitude I take to the Coulter "issue."

    I don’t very well understand why songbird and (in a more moderate way) yourself are so judgemental about how women should manage their beauty.
     
    I wasn't taking some general position on "beauty management." I quite specifically expressed doubts about the social value of flaunting one's sexiness past a certain age. I also made the observation that it's of questionable value to the individual, since it doesn't seem to lead to lasting happiness. Surely these are legitimate topics for discussion.

    I'm not personally offended by Coulter's fashion choices. I have a friend in her 50s who was very attractive when younger. Age has taken its toll on the face, but she has retained a great figure, which she does like to show off with form-fitting clothing. I don't see anything off-putting in it, except occasionally I think she pushes it too far, and then I'm more concerned that she won't really receive the kind of attention that she seems to think she will - ie guys looking at her and thinking "that outfit's not really working for you honey." It's not as if I have my head buried in my hands over the social implications of it.


    Is this really so different from a 73 old man showing his extraordinary physical powers?
     
    You're changing the issue. When you first brought this guy up, you said Should he have accepted his inevitable decline 20-30 years ago and stop trying to improve or is he right in ignoring age and continuing to test his limits? Now you're making it about him showing off his strength. Those are two different things.

    Consider health.

    (A) Is it possible for everyone to increase their health? Yes.

    (B) Is it it possible for everyone to be of above average health? No.

    Everyone being like the 73-year-old guy/Coulter in not accepting inevitable physical decline is more akin to (A), and everyone being like 73-year-old guy/Coulter in flaunting their achievement is more akin to (B).

    There is a limited pool of sexual attention available at any one time. For one person to receive more of it, someone else must receive less. Therefore clearly everyone can't be like Coulter and increase the amount of sexual attention they get. Similarly, everyone can't be grip-strength champ at 73.

    But everyone can refuse to accept inevitable physical decline and make the necessary effort to prevent it (or slow it down).

    Replies: @Mikel

  134. @sudden death
    Visual geopolitical symbolics from official Iran - whole Caspian sea is being regarded as their own;)

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9rMZMUXsAAadUb.jpg

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    Sarmatia Asiatica and Sarmatia Europea are True Brothers.

    Kontušas.

    [MORE]

  135. @Ivashka the fool
    @Yevardian

    I have written about it in the past, under my Ano and Bashi pseudonyms. I remember having an exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly "hero of Russia" Kadyrov bragged about his first "killing a Russian" aged 16. That is all one needs to know about RusFed, Chechnya and Noviop ethnic politics.

    I won't get into it all again except by suggesting one more time to those interested to read the excellent book by Paul Khlebnikov "Conversation with a barbarian". Khlebnikov got killed either for publishing that book or the one that followed about Berezovskyi. Anyone who would like to understand better what happened in RF in the 90ies should look into these two books. It could also be useful to understand the future interactions with Islamic minorities in the West.

    Speaking of which, France has just announced that it is ready to deport back to RF 39 "radical Russian citizens who supported Palestinian terrorism". Many Ichkerian fighters have found refuge in France, Austria and Germany, they were quite useful in Syrian civil war and now in Ukraine. But today they are deemed too dangerous to keep in the EU. Of course, they were as radical and as dangerous back in the 90ies in RF, but they were called "freedom fighters" then.

    Fact is, as long as we have double standards, we won't have peace in this world. If we cry for Hamas victims, but don't give a squat about those who were slayed in Beslan, then it is pure hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Emil Nikola Richard

    exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly “hero of Russia” Kadyrov

    This is actually how I came to this forum.

    Karlin was arguing with me in the Sailer thread, saying there is no evidence Akhmad Kadyrov said to kill as many Russians as possible. This video probably didn’t exist.

    But it’s just one of the most popular videos about him.

    ima was probably too young at the time to have understood what happened there. Discussing it with him is absolutely useless given the attitude he chose to display.

    Everything I write matches with historical sources, so “discussing it with him is absolutely useless”.

    I know you prefer something about Klaus Schwab and which releases some dopamine for you.

  136. @sudden death
    Visual geopolitical symbolics from official Iran - whole Caspian sea is being regarded as their own;)

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9rMZMUXsAAadUb.jpg

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    • LOL: silviosilver
  137. @ShortOnTime
    @Ivashka the fool

    Dagestan events seem to explain some of why Kremlin and Putin adopted some pro-Palestine rhetoric.

    Easy to forget Muslims and Ramzan Kadyrov as head of Chechen feudal fiefdom (idk best way to describe informal arrangement between Putin and Kadyrov) are a noteworthy constituency of the Kremlin. As banal as it sounds, adopting some Palestine sympathetic rhetoric (only rooted in long unrealized 2 state solution) to reduce Muslim unrest and "reward" efforts of pro-Kadyrov Chechens fighting in Ukraine is least Kremlin elite can do. Probably best course of action too.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Under the surface, Ramzan Kadyrov is probably quite “pro-Israel”. Well, it’s a mafia leader, they don’t really care or have some view based in reason of principles.

    Kadyrov funds Abu Ghosh, which is famous for the harmony between Jews and Arabs.

    He visits Israel for those official ceremonies.

    There was also a lot of discussions where Kadyrov is saying things like “we need to be like Israel”, which is just common for most of the postsoviet politicians as they viewed it as a development model including in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia etc.

    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.

    It was a military coup with some powerful mafia on their side. The republic’s army was competent in the beginning because they were veterans of the Soviet army, who had included some important commanders from the Afghanistan war.

    Dudaev was actually an important aviation commander in the Afghanistan war. Kadyrov was unusual as an Islamic faction there, this is why he was added as the Chief Mufti to represent the Islamist part of the government.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Dmitry


    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.
     
    With someone like Zakaev they could have been somewhat moderate, if they were able to maintain stability somehow, but they would retain some traditionalist strains. Zakaev may have been able to eventually receive some limited help from Europe, the British, maybe more from Turkey.

    What happened with Basaev and Khattab was not really natural for the Chechen culture, Khattab arrived with money, but Basaev didn't share his kind of Islamist convictions, more of his own traditionalist ones (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Could it be that this failed "SMO" has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. XYZ, @Dmitry

  138. @Dmitry
    @ShortOnTime

    Under the surface, Ramzan Kadyrov is probably quite "pro-Israel". Well, it's a mafia leader, they don't really care or have some view based in reason of principles.

    Kadyrov funds Abu Ghosh, which is famous for the harmony between Jews and Arabs.

    He visits Israel for those official ceremonies.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ex_brfHLJE

    There was also a lot of discussions where Kadyrov is saying things like "we need to be like Israel", which is just common for most of the postsoviet politicians as they viewed it as a development model including in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia etc.

    -

    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn't likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.

    It was a military coup with some powerful mafia on their side. The republic's army was competent in the beginning because they were veterans of the Soviet army, who had included some important commanders from the Afghanistan war.

    Dudaev was actually an important aviation commander in the Afghanistan war. Kadyrov was unusual as an Islamic faction there, this is why he was added as the Chief Mufti to represent the Islamist part of the government.

    Replies: @LatW

    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.

    With someone like Zakaev they could have been somewhat moderate, if they were able to maintain stability somehow, but they would retain some traditionalist strains. Zakaev may have been able to eventually receive some limited help from Europe, the British, maybe more from Turkey.

    What happened with Basaev and Khattab was not really natural for the Chechen culture, Khattab arrived with money, but Basaev didn’t share his kind of Islamist convictions, more of his own traditionalist ones (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Could it be that this failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @LatW


    (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).
     
    Sorry, he himself was not a pilot, but he associated with former pilots (that's how they were able to hijack planes). But did receive a secular education, of course, and he was originally clean shaven, he only grew the beard later. During those years people were seeking new identities, their world had shattered...
    , @Mr. XYZ
    @LatW


    Could it be that this failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.
     
    If Russia will have open borders with the Muslim world, then maybe? Especially if the West will become more hostile towards Muslim immigration, especially the non-cognitive elite kind. Russia would be able to start by accepting a lot of Palestinian and Syrian refugees. And of course giving citizenship to many more Central Asians. And possibly accept a lot of Afghan refugees as well.
    , @Dmitry
    @LatW

    The rational policy from the citizens' view (although citizens' view doesn't exist in the region), would be for Moscow to support Chechen independence after 1991.

    In exchange for support from Moscow, support from Grozny against the anti-Russian violence. Although the alternative of what happened shows this would not be a priority, the Russian community of Grozny was killed directly by the Russian army after December 1994.

    If there was funding available for resettlements, then there could have been a population exchange, giving Chechens from Russia, for Russians in Grozny and Gudermes.

    -

    It's reminding of 2022 in Ukraine.

    In 2014, there was anti-Russian violence in Odessa. But in 2022, the people who were called "Russian" in 2014, Russian aviation and cruise missiles bomb the same population, which the media were saying Kiev persecuted 9 years before.


    failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia?
     
    Islamists become significant in Chechnia after 1995 as immediately result of the military operation of Moscow. Kadyrov officially announces a jihad in 1995.

    And in the end, the Islamists were easier for Moscow than the nationalists and Kadyrov becomes their servant.

    But the question if they are authentic Islamists? Even an Islamically trained Akhmat Kadyrov is not very authentic and historians say he was a KGB agent in the 1980s.

    So, perhaps, we could still wonder, if real Islam is actually developing in Chechnia under Kadyrov, or if it is still a superficial packaging.


    During those years people were seeking new identities, their world had shattered…

     

    It's probably the most psychologically confused population in the world's history. It creates the discordant and inauthentic copy-paste culture of the 1990s.

    This is why I added Mutsurayev as a stereotypical example

    He plays the music of Nirvana i.e. American rock music. Then he is singing Russian, while adding fake pseudo-Islamic and nationalist themes. While he doesn't know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.

    Begin with perestroika culture. Listen to fashionable American rock bands. Add spices of the postsoviet nationalism. Then finish with a fake Islamic/jihad packaging after Gulf funding has made this fashionable in your separatist region, without knowing the basic things about Islam.

    But at least Mutsurayev sounds like American rock music, which Americans would consider competent on the musical level.

    It's not exactly "Shaman", which songs like rock music for an American children's animation film, I think Americans would probably not even accept as music for Walmart.

    Replies: @LatW

  139. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.
     
    With someone like Zakaev they could have been somewhat moderate, if they were able to maintain stability somehow, but they would retain some traditionalist strains. Zakaev may have been able to eventually receive some limited help from Europe, the British, maybe more from Turkey.

    What happened with Basaev and Khattab was not really natural for the Chechen culture, Khattab arrived with money, but Basaev didn't share his kind of Islamist convictions, more of his own traditionalist ones (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Could it be that this failed "SMO" has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. XYZ, @Dmitry

    (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Sorry, he himself was not a pilot, but he associated with former pilots (that’s how they were able to hijack planes). But did receive a secular education, of course, and he was originally clean shaven, he only grew the beard later. During those years people were seeking new identities, their world had shattered…

  140. @Ivashka the fool
    @Yevardian

    I have written about it in the past, under my Ano and Bashi pseudonyms. I remember having an exchange with Karlin, starting by pointing out that the supposedly "hero of Russia" Kadyrov bragged about his first "killing a Russian" aged 16. That is all one needs to know about RusFed, Chechnya and Noviop ethnic politics.

    I won't get into it all again except by suggesting one more time to those interested to read the excellent book by Paul Khlebnikov "Conversation with a barbarian". Khlebnikov got killed either for publishing that book or the one that followed about Berezovskyi. Anyone who would like to understand better what happened in RF in the 90ies should look into these two books. It could also be useful to understand the future interactions with Islamic minorities in the West.

    Speaking of which, France has just announced that it is ready to deport back to RF 39 "radical Russian citizens who supported Palestinian terrorism". Many Ichkerian fighters have found refuge in France, Austria and Germany, they were quite useful in Syrian civil war and now in Ukraine. But today they are deemed too dangerous to keep in the EU. Of course, they were as radical and as dangerous back in the 90ies in RF, but they were called "freedom fighters" then.

    Fact is, as long as we have double standards, we won't have peace in this world. If we cry for Hamas victims, but don't give a squat about those who were slayed in Beslan, then it is pure hypocrisy.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Paul Khlebnikov “Conversation with a barbarian”

    Amazon does not have that one. They had this one:

    When I loaded that page the number one customer recommendation in the footer was the new Bronze Age Pervert book. Selective Breeding and the Birth of Philosophy.

    I hope the algorithm wasn’t looking at me. Was the algorithm looking at you?

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I read it in Russian many years ago, seems it is hard to find in English.

    https://www.rulit.me/books/razgovor-s-varvarom-read-5687-1.html

    I don't know whether it had been ever published in English, but if it wasn't, it is easy to understand why, the topic is controversial starting from the first paragraphs (machine translated with minor adaptations):


    Many people will find my book offensive. This is understandable, because it actually contains a challenge. I deliberately present thoughts and positions that have not been voiced in a civilized society for a long time, some of them have already been discredited, others have become completely taboo. But let the reader not be offended by me. My goal is simple: to make you think and decide on your own views, to independently evaluate the challenging statements presented in this book.

    Why is this necessary? Why awaken the spirits of hostility and ignorance? But they woke up a long time ago. It's time to fight back against them again. If you try not to hear the reasoning of the one who wants to destroy you, you are making a grave mistake - like unilateral disarmament.

    Every civilization grows on certain moral and cultural values, as well as on the denial of opposing values. When a civilization stops defending its values ​​and sinks into complacency. it opens the way for enemies. Then ideas that have long been buried return with full force. Therefore, civilization must constantly renew itself, re-experience its truth and proclaim its values. As a rule, such rethinking is necessary for each subsequent generation.

    For many years now there has been a fatal struggle within Europe for cultural self-determination. What is European civilization based on? Liberals defend the principles of the free market, internationalism and godlessness, while conservatives adhere rather to traditional values, the defense of national and, as a rule, Christian culture. In the West, this struggle of cultures began in the 1960s, but in Russia it broke out only with the collapse of communism and is now only gaining strength.
     
    https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/paul-klebnikov/

    He was a good person. May he rest in peace.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  141. @Mikel
    @silviosilver from the previous thread

    I don’t doubt it’s fun. And perhaps if it was merely fun, I wouldn’t have anything to say about it. But it’s the kind of “fun” one gets from receiving Likes – particularly those most pointedly aimed at gaining attention. It’s fun in the moment, but it wears off quickly, and you’re left seeking another “hit” – and not getting one leaves you feeling way more down than you really should.
     
    How about just letting her deal with that? She's a pretty intelligent woman. There's no way she doesn't realize all of this will come to an end. In fact, it's already come to an end, as she didn't manage to keep any stable relationship and she's going to die childless, so why not let her make the most out of life the way she can?

    I don't very well understand why songbird and (in a more moderate way) yourself are so judgemental about how women should manage their beauty. If anything, I would rather worry about the current trend in the West of young women not taking too much care about their looks than mature women doing the opposite. That's what really makes the world be worse than it should. Nature also has a very efficient way of dealing with older women who show off more than they should for their own good. First, most of them (with some exceptions, like the one we're commenting) are going to get plenty of rejection from men and second and perhaps more important, women are great at policing themselves. As a general rule, we're not as cruel as they are with each other. In fact, Ann Coulter herself is bitching about other women all the time. So the situation just tends to resolve by itself, as women are very social creatures that need constant validation.

    Secondly, even if it’s actual fun, it’s a case of what is good for the individual isn’t so great for the collective. Flaunting an image of sexiness at a ripe age tends to suggest she’s “living the dream.” But what kind of dream is it, really? It sends the message to other women that “I want to be like that and I can be like that.” But in reality, serial monogamy isn’t a recipe for lasting happiness
     
    Is this really so different from a 73 old man showing his extraordinary physical powers? It can also lead to other men thinking "I want to be like that and I can be like that.” But 99.99% of them will fail, may actually get injured in their pursuit and feel disappointed when they find out that they can't possibly be like that. It's just a matter of both men and women being realistic with their lives rather than policing what people do and what "message" it sends.

    I don't really think there's much of a message in a 60 year old woman still looking good in miniskirts or a 73 year old man winning grip strength championships. It's great that they can and to me that's all there is to it.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @silviosilver

    But 99.99% of them will fail, may actually get injured in their pursuit and feel disappointed when they find out that they can’t possibly be like that.

    Wait. You mean I’m never going to lift 500 pounds?

    Oh shit.

    Ann Coulter is a performing artist. Any buzz is good. She loves that Songbird and Silva post trash talk about her.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Anything taken to an extreme is a potential problem.

    IMHO -- Ann Coulter is working way too hard. However, surviving the the media industry is a brutal profession. She chooses to stay in.

    PEACE 😇

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EUA0YFJHS4I

  142. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikel


    But 99.99% of them will fail, may actually get injured in their pursuit and feel disappointed when they find out that they can’t possibly be like that.
     
    Wait. You mean I'm never going to lift 500 pounds?

    Oh shit.

    Ann Coulter is a performing artist. Any buzz is good. She loves that Songbird and Silva post trash talk about her.

    Replies: @A123

    Anything taken to an extreme is a potential problem.

    IMHO — Ann Coulter is working way too hard. However, surviving the the media industry is a brutal profession. She chooses to stay in.

    PEACE 😇

  143. Vienna, Austria spends €2 Million on the memorial — Red Bull Alien Energy Drink Fountain — celebrating 150 years of service to extraterrestrial overlords. An Austrian minister (see photo) is thanking the forces of Epsilon Eridani for their multi species protection against the EU.

      

    Photos of the Eridiani Lord Subjugator’s address are unavailable due to religious considerations. Please continue to serve the overlords.

    All Hail Epsilon Eridani!

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/30/vienna-austria-fountain-modern-art/

  144. @QCIC
    @LatW

    What is your opinion on the radical increase in Russian defense spending for 2024?

    Which major oligarchs are winners and losers in this economic redirection?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Philip Owen

    Russia will be very effective producing some lower level stuff as a result of increased defence spending. It still won’t have the best quality tensile steel for gun barrels but it will have plenty of them.

    Rostec will be the biggest gainer so Denis Manturov will collect the money. Less than usual. They will be less corrupt than usual. Magnitogorsk and Mechtel make the most appropriate steels for the military. Evraz, quoted in London, denies any supply to the military.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Philip Owen

    What is the likelihood of a company such as Evraz being nationalized in the short run or pressured by the Kremlin to divest and create a Russia-centric portion?

  145. @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.
     
    An interesting redefinition of success.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.


    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia.
     
    Ever since Khmelnytsky's treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    A key differences: Ukraine has been supplied well, but not equipped as well as Poland was. The French went all-in when helping Poland, while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons - if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms. Instead, Ukraine was able to defeat the Russian attempts to occupy the country and to take back many of its lands but not quickly or comprehensively enough to prevent the Russians from consolidating their positions in the South, resulting in a much more drawn-out war.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North's industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn't come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    IF the North hadn’t come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman

    The course of the conflict was much tooo overdetermined for personalities to have made a difference Confederate Secretary of State Robert Toombs to Davis expressing dissent about the Confederacy’s attack on Fort Sumter.“Mr. President, at this time it is suicide, murder, and will lose us every friend at the North. You will wantonly strike a hornet’s nest which extends from mountain to ocean, and legions now quiet will swarm out and sting us to death. It is unnecessary; it puts us in the wrong; it is fatal.”. Had Toombs not had a drink problem he might well have been the Confederate President instead of Davis. Subsequently resigning and opposing measures such as conscription, Toombs had never believed a Civil War to be winnable by the South; few historians today would disagree.

    Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.

    Forcing them out of Ukraine might have been doable with sufficient top notch arms from the US at an early stage, but having done that how would Ukraine have leverage to force Russia to the table and get them to agree to peace? Russia would have nothing to gain at all by officially ceasing hostilities, and much to lose.

    Chael Sonnen said the Fury Vs. (MMA fighter) Ngannou bout exposed professional boxing as no test of skill but rather requiring specialised stamina with the key being a superior lactic acid clearing between rounds that takes decades to build. So a particular type of endurance is what is being tested (unless there is a knockout or TKO in the early rounds). Ali was never known for early knockouts. Hence, pro boxing is a fraud; it is not what people think it is. I think there is an analogy with the war. In Ukraine it is now generally acknowledged to have been making a huge mistake to not follow up the successes of last year. Such an oppertunity will not come again. Russia has the ability to recharge its batteries, so to speak, and the delay gave then the chance to use it.

  146. @Europe Europa
    Why is it always Britain that is expected to apologise for colonialism? Maybe I'm mistaken, but to my knowledge no other country goes around apologising for their history in the same way, maybe with the exception of Germany, which by association puts British history in the same category. On that note, there is a big leftist agenda to revision Churchill as a Hitler-esque figure.

    I don't see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Coconuts, @Mr. XYZ

    I don’t see pressure put on say France or Spain to apologise for their colonial history, or their native inhabitants expected to feel guilty for it.

    There probably is for France in regards to Algeria, honestly.

  147. @Beckow
    @LatW


    Russians...They can be both crazy and cunning / calculating. They can also use the threat of crazy in a calculating manner. But they can also be a little cowed, confused or lethargic sometimes. They can be all those things. They’re stronger than we like to admit but they are not superhuman.
     
    That is a description of a generic modern woman. You are really into projecting...

    To translate: romantic passionate women can also be gold-diggers, can act modestly and even passively, but there is a danger there...with enough skill and some luck it can be overcomed...

    So far nobody has succeeded against Russia. This new bunch of enthusiasts is free to try. They seem a lot weaker than the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians...but this time they have a head start since Russia was lethargic for a long time. We should never say never and they have better propaganda skills...Still, it will most likely fail miserably in a bloody inferno.

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard, @Philip Owen

    British wins against Russia, including proxies.

    1608-14 especially 1612-14, Time of Troubles, Romanovs installed; 1801, the invasion of India; other obscure naval battles pre 1812; 1856, the Crimean War; 1877-78, Russo-Turkish War; scuffles in Central Asia; 1905, Russo-Japanese war; the Cold War. I can’t recall a war Russia won against Britain. 1919 was not intended as conquest. There was nothing to fight about. Kerensky had already gone.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    I think he meant succeeding in conquering/ dismembering/permanently crippling Russia.

    Only the Mongols have managed such a feat in the distant pre gunpowder past.

    As on date Russia controls most of the territory it claims and the counter offensive has essentially failed.

    Now with the Israel conflict and likely sky high oil prices in the near future once Iran gets involved its economy looks set to do relatively well.

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Philip Owen

  148. @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.
     
    An interesting redefinition of success.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.


    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia.
     
    Ever since Khmelnytsky's treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    A key differences: Ukraine has been supplied well, but not equipped as well as Poland was. The French went all-in when helping Poland, while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons - if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms. Instead, Ukraine was able to defeat the Russian attempts to occupy the country and to take back many of its lands but not quickly or comprehensively enough to prevent the Russians from consolidating their positions in the South, resulting in a much more drawn-out war.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North's industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn't come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons – if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.

    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden? For all I know, he might have gotten scared of nuclear war and thus agreed to throw Ukraine under the Russian bus in early 2022. In real life, right before the invasion, Trump praises Putin as very smart for occupying the Donbass:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    • Replies: @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden?
     
    Much better. His 1st term track record was largely successful.

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth and shaped for domestic consumption. Everything else was so much smaller (less than $50K), odds are high they never reached his desk for specific approval.

    Burisma Biden was bribed to support Kiev aggression. That set the stage for Kiev's dreams of conquest. It was based on an incorrect belief that Moscow would fold. Merkel made a terrible mistake when she repudiated Minsk.

    America is now regaining national prestige and honour by jettisoning Not-The-President Biden's personal folly. The sadism of Iranian Hamas may hasten the exit.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @AP

    , @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Trump is a wildcard so who knows what he would have done. Trump did kill about 200 Wagners in Syria, did halt Nordstream with his sanctions, and did break with Obama''s policy and provided lethal weapons to Ukraine so the idea that he is simply a Russian shill is not true. In any ways, he is not like MAGA (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).

    I don't make much of his praise for Putin, it's normal diplomacy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

  149. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.
     
    With someone like Zakaev they could have been somewhat moderate, if they were able to maintain stability somehow, but they would retain some traditionalist strains. Zakaev may have been able to eventually receive some limited help from Europe, the British, maybe more from Turkey.

    What happened with Basaev and Khattab was not really natural for the Chechen culture, Khattab arrived with money, but Basaev didn't share his kind of Islamist convictions, more of his own traditionalist ones (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Could it be that this failed "SMO" has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. XYZ, @Dmitry

    Could it be that this failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    If Russia will have open borders with the Muslim world, then maybe? Especially if the West will become more hostile towards Muslim immigration, especially the non-cognitive elite kind. Russia would be able to start by accepting a lot of Palestinian and Syrian refugees. And of course giving citizenship to many more Central Asians. And possibly accept a lot of Afghan refugees as well.

  150. @AP
    @Beckow


    Oh, please, you are again being your autistic self.
     
    You claimed nobody ever succeded against Russia.

    I pointed out that the Afghanis, Poles, Germans, and Japanese each defeated Russia.

    As usual, when your lies are exposed you cry "autism."

    Obviously the triffles like Poland don’t matter
     
    Russians committed a million soldiers in their failed war against Poland.

    That this was a "trifle" is another lie.

    Ukies – as defined by you, meaning for some reason only the Western Ukies – have assisted Hitler, Swedes and Poles mightily. And lost.
     
    In World War II 90% of Ukrainians fought for the Soviets. This is why the Soviets won.

    In 1920 the Ukrainians weren't fighting for the Soviets in significant numbers. But some fought alongside the Poles. Poland won.

    In 1709, Ukrainians were split. The Swedish King was too impatient and did not wait for the Ukrainian Hetman to consolidate his forces and get them out of Russia.

    Prior to 1648 Ukrainians fought alongside Poles. They defeated Russians repeatedly, and even captured Moscow once. Although they were driven out of the Russian capital they still won that war, having gained territory by the peace treaty that ended it.. Kind of like the USSR defeating Finland in 1939.

    So stop dreaming up “victories”
     
    Lie that victories were dreamed up.

    Replies: @Beckow

    As always you double down on your idiocy. I wrote:

    …the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians failed…

    Do you understand the meaning of “all-European”? Let me give you a hint: Japan, Afghanistan or Poland in 1920 were not all-European attacks on Russia. So why do you go of into the weeds and bring up unrelated stuff?

    The current war is closest to an all-European assault on Russia – just like Napoleon, Hitler, or Swedes Poles, Ottomans. They all failed, some catastrophically. You are free to dream of Afghanis or Japan, those were not existential conflicts. We can make the same list about US: from Vietnam to Afghanistan a chain of lost wars, but it doesn’t matter. Learn how to think straight.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow

    The current war really isn't existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians' own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can't regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

  151. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons – if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.
     
    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden? For all I know, he might have gotten scared of nuclear war and thus agreed to throw Ukraine under the Russian bus in early 2022. In real life, right before the invasion, Trump praises Putin as very smart for occupying the Donbass:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden?

    Much better. His 1st term track record was largely successful.

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption. Everything else was so much smaller (less than $50K), odds are high they never reached his desk for specific approval.

    Burisma Biden was bribed to support Kiev aggression. That set the stage for Kiev’s dreams of conquest. It was based on an incorrect belief that Moscow would fold. Merkel made a terrible mistake when she repudiated Minsk.

    America is now regaining national prestige and honour by jettisoning Not-The-President Biden’s personal folly. The sadism of Iranian Hamas may hasten the exit.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @AP
    @A123


    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K
     
    It was around $250 million.

    In total, Trump provided $391 million in military aid for Ukraine.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/09/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-aid-package-to-ukraine-that-trump-delayed/

    Burisma Biden was bribed
     
    That would be odd because Biden's pal was exiled by the Ukrainian government.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

  152. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons – if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms.
     
    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden? For all I know, he might have gotten scared of nuclear war and thus agreed to throw Ukraine under the Russian bus in early 2022. In real life, right before the invasion, Trump praises Putin as very smart for occupying the Donbass:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    Replies: @A123, @AP

    Trump is a wildcard so who knows what he would have done. Trump did kill about 200 Wagners in Syria, did halt Nordstream with his sanctions, and did break with Obama”s policy and provided lethal weapons to Ukraine so the idea that he is simply a Russian shill is not true. In any ways, he is not like MAGA (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).

    I don’t make much of his praise for Putin, it’s normal diplomacy.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    I wonder just how much of Trump's anti-Russian moves were done in response to Russiagate pressure, though--as in, in order to avoid looking like a Russian tool/shill and thus to avoid giving more fodder to his political opponents. But these calculations could be less relevant in a second term since Trump himself won't legally be able to seek a third term. Though if some other member of his close family will subsequently have their own political ambitions, then this could also affect Trump's calculations.

    The Biden position on Nord Stream 2 was a mistake in hindsight but without hindsight, the logic was relatively sound: As in, giving Russia an incentive to cooperate more with the West by giving Russia something significantly to lose if it severely misbehaved. It didn't work, of course, but the logic was reasonable. Similar to Israel allowing Palestinian guest workers from the Gaza Strip to work in Israel and thus giving the Palestinians something to lose if Hamas severely misbehaved. That ultimately didn't work either, but again, the logic in regards to this was still reasonable. I guess that with hindsight the logic should be not to appease at all if you're not going to appease enough. (The same logic applied to appeasing Hitler, BTW. Letting Hitler have all of Eastern Europe as his sphere of influence/demesne would have probably been sufficient Western appeasement of Hitler, but anything short of that would not have been good enough and would have simply made Hitler stronger in any future World War against the West.)

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).
     
    TBF, he would have a vested interest in the creation of this vaccine in order to ensure that a lot of his own supporters would not have died on him before the 2020 election. After all, as the 2000 election showed, any vote can be crucial.

    I know that blacks and Hispanics have a large vaccine-skeptical constituency, but among whites, AFAIK, the most vaccine-skeptical ones are conservative/Republican whites. It's in Republicans' own interests to change attitudes in regards to this so that COVID-19 won't kill as many of their constituents.
  153. @Philip Owen
    @Beckow

    British wins against Russia, including proxies.

    1608-14 especially 1612-14, Time of Troubles, Romanovs installed; 1801, the invasion of India; other obscure naval battles pre 1812; 1856, the Crimean War; 1877-78, Russo-Turkish War; scuffles in Central Asia; 1905, Russo-Japanese war; the Cold War. I can't recall a war Russia won against Britain. 1919 was not intended as conquest. There was nothing to fight about. Kerensky had already gone.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    I think he meant succeeding in conquering/ dismembering/permanently crippling Russia.

    Only the Mongols have managed such a feat in the distant pre gunpowder past.

    As on date Russia controls most of the territory it claims and the counter offensive has essentially failed.

    Now with the Israel conflict and likely sky high oil prices in the near future once Iran gets involved its economy looks set to do relatively well.

    • Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @Vishnugupta

    The problem with money stuck in India for Russian oil - and this is allegedly as much as 39 billion dollars in rupees - has been partially solved: India will build 24 cargo ships for Russia with these funds. At the shipyards in Goa, three types of ships will be created: chemical tankers, bulk carriers, ships for transporting cargo in containers (for some reason, LNG tankers are not on the list, although they are now in great demand).



    https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1716054225464008995

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    , @Philip Owen
    @Vishnugupta

    Britain came close in 1612-14 by backing the Romanovs. Until the UK parliament executed the King, Russia gave the UK extremely favourable trading rights and started a long tradition of Scottish officers in the army. But yes, you are right, influence not conquest.

  154. @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    Would Trump have been better at this relative to Biden?
     
    Much better. His 1st term track record was largely successful.

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth and shaped for domestic consumption. Everything else was so much smaller (less than $50K), odds are high they never reached his desk for specific approval.

    Burisma Biden was bribed to support Kiev aggression. That set the stage for Kiev's dreams of conquest. It was based on an incorrect belief that Moscow would fold. Merkel made a terrible mistake when she repudiated Minsk.

    America is now regaining national prestige and honour by jettisoning Not-The-President Biden's personal folly. The sadism of Iranian Hamas may hasten the exit.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @AP

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K

    It was around $250 million.

    In total, Trump provided $391 million in military aid for Ukraine.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/09/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-aid-package-to-ukraine-that-trump-delayed/

    Burisma Biden was bribed

    That would be odd because Biden’s pal was exiled by the Ukrainian government.

    • Replies: @A123
    @AP



    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.
     
    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.
     
    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)

    MAGA/Trump's openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars. Those were among the reasons why the establishment was so upset with Trump's 1st term successes.

    Does anyone believe that Trump's 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression? That is clearly a policy exclusive to Not-The-President Biden. The Big Guy got his 10% on that...

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Sean

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden's job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn't a new thing from a historical perspective:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celebrity_branding

    And it's unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration, and Biden eventually becoming US President wasn't too foreseeable before 2020 since in 2016, Hillary was Democrats' favorite for this by far and even in 2020, Biden only won the Democratic nomination due to the black vote in South Carolina, which caused huge momentum to go in his favor (he previously came in fifth place in New Hampshire).

    Replies: @AP

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    Also, in regards to this sentence from your previous post:


    I don’t make much of his praise for Putin, it’s normal diplomacy.

     

    I think that there's a difference between praise being made at a normal time and praise being made when a foreign leader is about to invade a neighboring country. Had FDR and/or some other prominent US politician(s) praised Hitler on the eve of Hitler's invasion of Poland, after Hitler had given the Poles his ultimatum but hasn't actually invaded Poland yet, would you (had you actually already been alive back then) have likewise dismissed this praise as just "normal diplomacy"?
  155. @Vishnugupta
    @Philip Owen

    I think he meant succeeding in conquering/ dismembering/permanently crippling Russia.

    Only the Mongols have managed such a feat in the distant pre gunpowder past.

    As on date Russia controls most of the territory it claims and the counter offensive has essentially failed.

    Now with the Israel conflict and likely sky high oil prices in the near future once Iran gets involved its economy looks set to do relatively well.

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere, @Philip Owen

    The problem with money stuck in India for Russian oil – and this is allegedly as much as 39 billion dollars in rupees – has been partially solved: India will build 24 cargo ships for Russia with these funds. At the shipyards in Goa, three types of ships will be created: chemical tankers, bulk carriers, ships for transporting cargo in containers (for some reason, LNG tankers are not on the list, although they are now in great demand).

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    Indian LNG tanker building capacity is very limited with production sold out for the next 5 years.

    Also they are AFAIK Samsung designed and contain a lot of South Korean components further complicating exports to Russia in view if sanctions.

    By when do you think the Chinese will attain tech independence in civilian jet engines and semi conductors?

  156. @AP
    @A123


    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K
     
    It was around $250 million.

    In total, Trump provided $391 million in military aid for Ukraine.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/09/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-aid-package-to-ukraine-that-trump-delayed/

    Burisma Biden was bribed
     
    That would be odd because Biden's pal was exiled by the Ukrainian government.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)

    MAGA/Trump’s openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars. Those were among the reasons why the establishment was so upset with Trump’s 1st term successes.

    Does anyone believe that Trump’s 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression? That is clearly a policy exclusive to Not-The-President Biden. The Big Guy got his 10% on that…

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    MAGA/Trump’s openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars.

    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898

    Those were the same anti-tank weapons used to push out Putin.

    Good move Trump.

    Does anyone believe that Trump’s 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression?

    No one has approved $100 billion in spending.

    Most of the military aid has been in the form of legacy hardware. It's sitting around and was purchased decades ago. There was in fact a question of what to do with all the Bradleys and F16s. Not easy to ebay.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Sean
    @A123

    The value is far greater than $100 billion because those weapons are not available on the open market at any price. However I think Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities. If Putin proved obdurate Trump might have actually given far more than Biden has, because Trump hates America being made to look stupid and ineffectual( he has never forgiven Iran for the hostage crisis hence his assassination of the Iranian general).

    Replies: @A123

  157. @AP
    @Sher Singh


    The Aryan faiths have prophets born only of noble lineages.
    Jewish accounts state that both Joseph & Mary are of ignoble lines
     
    Mary was descended from King David's son Nathan.

    Your weird attempt to associate your faith with Aryans
     
    It's just reality.

    Being Aryan is irrelevant to being a Christian – there is neither Greek nor Jew.
     
    Correct.

    Why do you think there is a contradiction between those two facts - that Jesus's father was the universal God of gods first recognized and worshipped by the Aryans and that He was an incarnation of Him - and that one need not be an Aryan to be a Christian?

    Replies: @Sher Singh

    King David’s is not an Aryan lineage.
    This is just Gen X inability to fully commit to either Nationalism or Christianity.

    Have seen the same thing from Jim over at blog.jim.com
    There’s no point convincing your generation, and none either believes this.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Sher Singh

    I think what is important in this discussion, is to recognize that the ancestors of those people who have become Christians or Muslims have had their own valid religious beliefs. That they had a well established spiritual view of the World that they carried for thousands of years.

    Tomorrow night is the night of Samhain. It is one of the eight main yearly holidays of the European pagan past, probably going back all the way to the Unetice Culture. Today it has devolved into Halloween - disguises, candies, tricks or treats.

    But it was something else back then, it was the time when Nature died, preparing to be buried under the snows and be reborn in the spring. An eternal cycle of life and death, a spiral going both up and down for those who have eyes to see. Samhain was the time when the doors of Death open and let the spirits pass over.

    Just like everything in this natural realm of ours, races and nations are born, live and die. They have their dreams and their disappointments, just like any human has. The great dream of the White Race was to completely master natural phenomena and turn them into the servants of mankind. The great disappointment would be understanding that there can be no complete mastering of nature for those who are not completely masters of themselves.

    https://youtu.be/UJE9Ks3BBMM?feature=shared

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  158. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool


    Paul Khlebnikov “Conversation with a barbarian”
     
    Amazon does not have that one. They had this one:

    https://www.amazon.com/Godfather-Kremlin-Decline-Gangster-Capitalism/dp/0156013304

    When I loaded that page the number one customer recommendation in the footer was the new Bronze Age Pervert book. Selective Breeding and the Birth of Philosophy.

    I hope the algorithm wasn't looking at me. Was the algorithm looking at you?

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    I read it in Russian many years ago, seems it is hard to find in English.

    https://www.rulit.me/books/razgovor-s-varvarom-read-5687-1.html

    I don’t know whether it had been ever published in English, but if it wasn’t, it is easy to understand why, the topic is controversial starting from the first paragraphs (machine translated with minor adaptations):

    Many people will find my book offensive. This is understandable, because it actually contains a challenge. I deliberately present thoughts and positions that have not been voiced in a civilized society for a long time, some of them have already been discredited, others have become completely taboo. But let the reader not be offended by me. My goal is simple: to make you think and decide on your own views, to independently evaluate the challenging statements presented in this book.

    Why is this necessary? Why awaken the spirits of hostility and ignorance? But they woke up a long time ago. It’s time to fight back against them again. If you try not to hear the reasoning of the one who wants to destroy you, you are making a grave mistake – like unilateral disarmament.

    Every civilization grows on certain moral and cultural values, as well as on the denial of opposing values. When a civilization stops defending its values ​​and sinks into complacency. it opens the way for enemies. Then ideas that have long been buried return with full force. Therefore, civilization must constantly renew itself, re-experience its truth and proclaim its values. As a rule, such rethinking is necessary for each subsequent generation.

    For many years now there has been a fatal struggle within Europe for cultural self-determination. What is European civilization based on? Liberals defend the principles of the free market, internationalism and godlessness, while conservatives adhere rather to traditional values, the defense of national and, as a rule, Christian culture. In the West, this struggle of cultures began in the 1960s, but in Russia it broke out only with the collapse of communism and is now only gaining strength.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/paul-klebnikov/

    He was a good person. May he rest in peace.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    What is I have read about the Chechen war makes me want to stop reading about the Chechen war. The gangster book looks interesting.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  159. @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I read it in Russian many years ago, seems it is hard to find in English.

    https://www.rulit.me/books/razgovor-s-varvarom-read-5687-1.html

    I don't know whether it had been ever published in English, but if it wasn't, it is easy to understand why, the topic is controversial starting from the first paragraphs (machine translated with minor adaptations):


    Many people will find my book offensive. This is understandable, because it actually contains a challenge. I deliberately present thoughts and positions that have not been voiced in a civilized society for a long time, some of them have already been discredited, others have become completely taboo. But let the reader not be offended by me. My goal is simple: to make you think and decide on your own views, to independently evaluate the challenging statements presented in this book.

    Why is this necessary? Why awaken the spirits of hostility and ignorance? But they woke up a long time ago. It's time to fight back against them again. If you try not to hear the reasoning of the one who wants to destroy you, you are making a grave mistake - like unilateral disarmament.

    Every civilization grows on certain moral and cultural values, as well as on the denial of opposing values. When a civilization stops defending its values ​​and sinks into complacency. it opens the way for enemies. Then ideas that have long been buried return with full force. Therefore, civilization must constantly renew itself, re-experience its truth and proclaim its values. As a rule, such rethinking is necessary for each subsequent generation.

    For many years now there has been a fatal struggle within Europe for cultural self-determination. What is European civilization based on? Liberals defend the principles of the free market, internationalism and godlessness, while conservatives adhere rather to traditional values, the defense of national and, as a rule, Christian culture. In the West, this struggle of cultures began in the 1960s, but in Russia it broke out only with the collapse of communism and is now only gaining strength.
     
    https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/paul-klebnikov/

    He was a good person. May he rest in peace.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    What is I have read about the Chechen war makes me want to stop reading about the Chechen war. The gangster book looks interesting.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It is not a book about Chechnya, neither is it a book about war. Rather it is a book about two different civilizations facing each other. One of them being "barbarian" - more primitive and therefore closer to the roots of what makes us truly human.

  160. @Sher Singh
    @AP

    King David's is not an Aryan lineage.
    This is just Gen X inability to fully commit to either Nationalism or Christianity.

    Have seen the same thing from Jim over at blog.jim.com
    There's no point convincing your generation, and none either believes this.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    I think what is important in this discussion, is to recognize that the ancestors of those people who have become Christians or Muslims have had their own valid religious beliefs. That they had a well established spiritual view of the World that they carried for thousands of years.

    Tomorrow night is the night of Samhain. It is one of the eight main yearly holidays of the European pagan past, probably going back all the way to the Unetice Culture. Today it has devolved into Halloween – disguises, candies, tricks or treats.

    But it was something else back then, it was the time when Nature died, preparing to be buried under the snows and be reborn in the spring. An eternal cycle of life and death, a spiral going both up and down for those who have eyes to see. Samhain was the time when the doors of Death open and let the spirits pass over.

    Just like everything in this natural realm of ours, races and nations are born, live and die. They have their dreams and their disappointments, just like any human has. The great dream of the White Race was to completely master natural phenomena and turn them into the servants of mankind. The great disappointment would be understanding that there can be no complete mastering of nature for those who are not completely masters of themselves.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    Cheer up.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/00-halloween-lion-kitten-1536x1056.jpg

  161. @Philip Owen
    @QCIC

    Russia will be very effective producing some lower level stuff as a result of increased defence spending. It still won't have the best quality tensile steel for gun barrels but it will have plenty of them.

    Rostec will be the biggest gainer so Denis Manturov will collect the money. Less than usual. They will be less corrupt than usual. Magnitogorsk and Mechtel make the most appropriate steels for the military. Evraz, quoted in London, denies any supply to the military.

    Replies: @QCIC

    What is the likelihood of a company such as Evraz being nationalized in the short run or pressured by the Kremlin to divest and create a Russia-centric portion?

  162. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Ivashka the fool

    What is I have read about the Chechen war makes me want to stop reading about the Chechen war. The gangster book looks interesting.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    It is not a book about Chechnya, neither is it a book about war. Rather it is a book about two different civilizations facing each other. One of them being “barbarian” – more primitive and therefore closer to the roots of what makes us truly human.


  163. [MORE]

    Legend has it that in the early 14th century, the grand duke of Lithuania set out on a hunting trip. One night, he dreamt of an enormous iron wolf, which a priest would later tell him was a sign that he should establish a city on the site where he had slept.

    Whether or not the origin story is true, it’s uncontested that the present-day Lithuanian capital Vilnius was first referred to by its former name, Vilna, in documents and letters in 1323 — making this year, in the government’s eyes, the city’s 700th anniversary.

    Vilnius 700 events are scheduled through the end of the year, ensuring that the tensions over history and memory in the city continue to simmer.

    But not all see the need to bring up the city and Holocaust anniversaries in the same conversation. David Roskies, chair emeritus in Yiddish literature at the Jewish Theological Seminary in New York, wrote in an email: “I don’t see any intersection between the two anniversaries. It’s pure happenstance. Who can say with any precision when Vilnius was established?”

    The city is marking the anniversary year throughout 2023 with various festivals, visual art exhibitions, lectures and more. The organizers of Vilnius 700 stress that they are including Jewish people and themes in the celebrations through a range of programming.

    That’s because for a portion of the city’s existence, starting in the early 19th century, Vilnius was also one of the most important Jewish centers in the world, known as the Jerusalem of the North. Roughly half of the city was Jewish, and it was a Jewish cultural powerhouse, a deep well of Yiddish and Hebrew literature. In 1910, the city had over 100 synagogues, along with Jewish schools, publications, and charitable and political organizations.

    Whether or not the origin story is true, it’s uncontested that the present-day Lithuanian capital Vilnius was first referred to by its former name, Vilna, in documents and letters in 1323 — making this year, in the government’s eyes, the city’s 700th anniversary.

    The city is marking the anniversary year throughout 2023 with various festivals, visual art exhibitions, lectures and more. The organizers of Vilnius 700 stress that they are including Jewish people and themes in the celebrations through a range of programming.

    That’s because for a portion of the city’s existence, starting in the early 19th century, Vilnius was also one of the most important Jewish centers in the world, known as the Jerusalem of the North. Roughly half of the city was Jewish, and it was a Jewish cultural powerhouse, a deep well of Yiddish and Hebrew literature. In 1910, the city had over 100 synagogues, along with Jewish schools, publications, and charitable and political organizations.

    “The Jewish community is an integral part of Vilnius’ past and present, playing an important role in the city’s day-to-day life,” Tomas Gulbinas, Vilnius’ deputy mayor, wrote in an email.

    Yet this weekend also marks a darker anniversary: 80 years since the final liquidation of the Vilna Ghetto, a Jewish ghetto that saw almost all of its over 50,000 Jews die at the hands of the Nazis.

    Late last month just ahead of the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte joined others in a march from the city’s former Jewish ghetto to Paneriai, the forest site formerly known as Ponary where the Nazis and their local collaborators murdered 70,000 Jews, mostly Lithuanian, over three years during the Holocaust.

    The twin anniversaries have brought into stark relief tensions over historical memory in Lithuania, where, as in neighboring Poland and Latvia, officials have downplayed the role of local collaborators in carrying out the Nazis’ murderous plans. Memorials to Lithuanians who fought with the Nazis against the Soviet Union are plentiful in the city, making that history loom both literally and figuratively over the 700th birthday party.

    “There is an unresolvable tension between desire to celebrate and this history that is not much to celebrate,” said Laimonis Breidis, a Vilnius native whose book “Vilnius: City of Strangers” explores the city’s history through the insights of travelers. The biggest challenge, he said, is that “everything told about the city is compartmentalized.”

    Almost all of the few thousand Jews living in Vilnius today have familial ties to people who died during the Holocaust, said Faina Kukliansky, chair of the Lithuanian Jewish (Litvak) Community. She said in an interview earlier this year that the community was more determined to commemorate the ghetto anniversary than the city one.

    “I promise you, we, the Lithuanian Jewish community, will not forget this date,” she said.

    How Lithuania’s Holocaust history is remembered became an issue of high drama in 2019, after a Chicago schoolteacher named Sylvia Foti published a book recounting how her grandfather — Jonas Noreika, a general and formerly a national hero — had agreed with the Nazis about the extermination of Jews.

    The book caused an uproar. Lithuania’s parliament then voted to remove the head of a national genocide research center, Adas Jakubauskas, after he insisted Noreika had tried to save Jews; 17 historians wrote to the center complaining that Jakubauskas was compromising the quality of their research. For his part, Jakubauskas charged that he was being pressured by Israel and Russia to indict Lithuanian participants without evidence.

    Yet the country continues to memorialize the Holocaust without calling attention to the role that Lithuanians played in carrying it out. Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel’s Holocaust memorial authority, said in a special session of the Lithuanian Parliament on September 21 that the country “must consistently acknowledge that many of the Lithuanian Jews massacred in the Holocaust died at the hands of their Lithuanian co-nationals and that Lithuanians also took part in the extermination of Jews in neighboring countries.”

    Such an acknowledgment is not a centerpiece of the Vilnius 700 programming, in part because its emphasis on celebration is focusing attention on happier moments in local Jewish history.

    Gulbinas listed the Jewish-themed projects the city has undertaken in conjunction with its 700th anniversary: city tours, put on by Undiscovered Vilnius, that highlight the city’s Jewish history; the city’s involvement in the reconstruction of the Great Synagogue of Vilnius, which was mostly destroyed by the Nazis; the renovation of the grave of the Vilna Gaon, a hugely influential 18th-century rabbi, and the upkeep of Jewish cemeteries; and a graffiti art project, “Walls That Remember,” in which artists have painted images harkening back to the era when the city’s Jewish community was thriving.

    “Simultaneously, Vilnius honors the present Jewish customs and traditions, for example, by celebrating Hanukkah together with the local Jewish community every year,” Gulbinas wrote.

    A pavilion at the National Museum of Lithuania that is open until October 15 recreates Vilnius as it stood 200 years ago — at the dawn of the city’s Jewish heyday.

    Meanwhile, the Jewish community has held events tied to the ghetto anniversary outside of the Vilnius 700 umbrella. Earlier this month, in the courtyard of the former Jewish Council headquarters in the Jewish Ghetto, Šimonytė attended an exhibition and concert on the liquidation anniversary.

    On September 21, the city of Vilnius introduced a commemorative route — “Panerių kelias,” or road of Paneriai, named for the site of a massacre of 100,000 people, many of whom were Jewish, during World War II — along which processions were organized on that same day and on the 24th. An additional exhibition, “Healing Soul Wounds,” which, per an official from the city, “reveals the traumatic experiences and dilemmas of young girls, teenagers and women in order to survive the brutal conditions of World War II and the Holocaust,” opened last week.

    In a few cases, the histories — that of Vilnius and that of the Vilna Ghetto — were commemorated together in official Vilnius 700 events. At a concert outside the former Vilna Ghetto Jewish Council in July, Michael Gordon, the American composer and founder of the acclaimed Bang on a Can music collective, whose father grew up outside of Vilnius, debuted an original composition for nine trombones.

    The courtyard was Gordon’s idea. The organizers of the music component of Vilnius 700 reached out to him, he said, and sent a list of sites where he could debut an original composition. In his reply, he said, he pointed out that “there’s a big and long and illustrious history of Jewish culture, both secular and sacred, in Vilnius, and none of these sites are Jewish sites. Can we consider a Jewish site? And they said yeah, great.”

    Gordon chose the courtyard in part because of its connection to Jewish arts: on one side of the courtyard stood a Yiddish theater; on another, a Yiddish conservatory. And the city also has a personal connection to Gordon, whose father, a Litvak, lived in Vilnius in the 1930s. He called his composition “Resonance.”

    Roughly 300 people came to the concert, said Gordon, who spoke a little at the event about “the presence of Jewish culture in Lithuanian history.”

    Whether or not the origin story is true, it’s uncontested that the present-day Lithuanian capital Vilnius was first referred to by its former name, Vilna, in documents and letters in 1323 — making this year, in the government’s eyes, the city’s 700th anniversary.

    The city is marking the anniversary year throughout 2023 with various festivals, visual art exhibitions, lectures and more. The organizers of Vilnius 700 stress that they are including Jewish people and themes in the celebrations through a range of programming.

    That’s because for a portion of the city’s existence, starting in the early 19th century, Vilnius was also one of the most important Jewish centers in the world, known as the Jerusalem of the North. Roughly half of the city was Jewish, and it was a Jewish cultural powerhouse, a deep well of Yiddish and Hebrew literature. In 1910, the city had over 100 synagogues, along with Jewish schools, publications, and charitable and political organizations.

    “The Jewish community is an integral part of Vilnius’ past and present, playing an important role in the city’s day-to-day life,” Tomas Gulbinas, Vilnius’ deputy mayor, wrote in an email.

    Yet this weekend also marks a darker anniversary: 80 years since the final liquidation of the Vilna Ghetto, a Jewish ghetto that saw almost all of its over 50,000 Jews die at the hands of the Nazis.

    Late last month just ahead of the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte joined others in a march from the city’s former Jewish ghetto to Paneriai, the forest site formerly known as Ponary where the Nazis and their local collaborators murdered 70,000 Jews, mostly Lithuanian, over three years during the Holocaust.

    The twin anniversaries have brought into stark relief tensions over historical memory in Lithuania, where, as in neighboring Poland and Latvia, officials have downplayed the role of local collaborators in carrying out the Nazis’ murderous plans. Memorials to Lithuanians who fought with the Nazis against the Soviet Union are plentiful in the city, making that history loom both literally and figuratively over the 700th birthday party.

    “There is an unresolvable tension between desire to celebrate and this history that is not much to celebrate,” said Laimonis Breidis, a Vilnius native whose book “Vilnius: City of Strangers” explores the city’s history through the insights of travelers. The biggest challenge, he said, is that “everything told about the city is compartmentalized”.

    Almost all of the few thousand Jews living in Vilnius today have familial ties to people who died during the Holocaust, said Faina Kukliansky, chair of the Lithuanian Jewish (Litvak) Community. She said in an interview earlier this year that the community was more determined to commemorate the ghetto anniversary than the city one.

    “I promise you, we, the Lithuanian Jewish community, will not forget this date,” she said.

    How Lithuania’s Holocaust history is remembered became an issue of high drama in 2019, after a Chicago schoolteacher named Sylvia Foti published a book recounting how her grandfather — Jonas Noreika, a general and formerly a national hero — had agreed with the Nazis about the extermination of Jews.

    The book caused an uproar. Lithuania’s parliament then voted to remove the head of a national genocide research center, Adas Jakubauskas, after he insisted Noreika had tried to save Jews; 17 historians wrote to the center complaining that Jakubauskas was compromising the quality of their research. For his part, Jakubauskas charged that he was being pressured by Israel to indict Lithuanian participants without evidence.

    Yet the country continues to memorialize the Holocaust without calling attention to the role that Lithuanians played in carrying it out. Dani Dayan, chairman of Yad Vashem, Israel’s Holocaust memorial authority, said in a special session of the Lithuanian Parliament on September 21 that the country “must consistently acknowledge that many of the Lithuanian Jews massacred in the Holocaust died at the hands of their Lithuanian co-nationals and that Lithuanians also took part in the extermination of Jews in neighboring countries.”

    Such an acknowledgment is not a centerpiece of the Vilnius 700 programming, in part because its emphasis on celebration is focusing attention on happier moments in local Jewish history.

    Gulbinas listed the Jewish-themed projects the city has undertaken in conjunction with its 700th anniversary: city tours, put on by Undiscovered Vilnius, that highlight the city’s Jewish history; the city’s involvement in the reconstruction of the Great Synagogue of Vilnius, which was mostly destroyed by the Nazis; the renovation of the grave of the Vilna Gaon, a hugely influential 18th-century rabbi, and the upkeep of Jewish cemeteries; and a graffiti art project, “Walls That Remember,” in which artists have painted images harkening back to the era when the city’s Jewish community was thriving.

    “Simultaneously, Vilnius honors the present Jewish customs and traditions, for example, by celebrating Hanukkah together with the local Jewish community every year,” Gulbinas wrote.

    A pavilion at the National Museum of Lithuania that is open until October 15 recreates Vilnius as it stood 200 years ago at the dawn of the city’s Jewish hSunday.

    Meanwhile, the Jewish community has held events tied to the ghetto anniversary outside of the Vilnius 700 umbrella. Earlier this month, in the courtyard of the former Jewish Council headquarters in the Jewish Ghetto, Šimonytė attended an exhibition and concert on the liquidation anniversary.

    On September 21, the city of Vilnius introduced a commemorative route “Panerių kelias,” or road of Paneriai, named for the site of a massacre of 100,000 people, many of whom were Jewish, during World War II along which processions were organized on that same day and on the 24th. An additional exhibition, “Healing Soul Wounds,” which, per an official from the city, “reveals the traumatic experiences and dilemmas of young girls, teenagers and women in order to survive the brutal conditions of World War II and the Holocaust,” opened last week.

    In a few cases, the histories that of Vilnius and that of the Vilna Ghetto were commemorated together in official Vilnius 700 events. At a concert outside the former Vilna Ghetto Jewish Council in July, Michael Gordon, the American composer and founder of the acclaimed Bang on a Can music collective, whose father grew up outside of Vilnius, debuted an original composition for nine trombones.

    As Vilnius celebrates its 700th anniversary, Lithuanian Jews commemorate a darker one. Members of an international team of archaeologists work to unearth the bimah, the central prayer platform, at the archaeological site of the Great Synagogue of Vilnius, on July 25, 2018, in Lithuania.

    The courtyard was Gordon’s idea. The organizers of the music component of Vilnius 700 reached out to him, he said, and sent a list of sites where he could debut an original composition. In his reply, he said, he pointed out that “there’s a big and long and illustrious history of Jewish culture, both secular and sacred, in Vilnius, and none of these sites are Jewish sites. Can we consider a Jewish site? And they said yeah, great.”

    Gordon chose the courtyard in part because of its connection to Jewish arts: on one side of the courtyard stood a Yiddish theater; on another, a Yiddish conservatory. And the city also has a personal connection to Gordon, whose father, a Litvak, lived in Vilnius in the 1930s. He called his composition “Resonance.”

    Roughly 300 people came to the concert, said Gordon, who spoke a little at the event about “the presence of Jewish culture in Lithuanian history”.

    “I was happy about that,” he said. “I kind of felt it was my responsibility… I felt, wow, I have this opportunity to go here and, in a certain sense, honor the Jewish history in this place, in this very important center of Jewish learning and Jewish arts and culture.”

    That kind of attention was all too rare in the past, according to Laima Lauckaite, the curator of a collaborative exhibition between the Lithuanian Art Centre TARTLE and the YIVO Institute for Jewish Research in New York City that is open now. Lauckaite did not grow up fully aware of her city’s Jewish history while a schoolgirl during the Soviet years near where the Great Synagogue of Vilna once stood. Soviet authorities had razed the synagogue’s ruins and erected a school; underground remains were not identified until 2015.

    “I never knew about it, that there was the Great Synagogue,” she said. “I got to know about it only 30 years after.”

    The collaborative exhibit in New York City displays an exhibition of Vilnius guidebooks that reflect the city’s 19th- and 20th-century history and “its multi-ethnic, multicultural landscape.” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda visited YIVO last week to pay tribute to the Jews who rescued rare books and documents from the Vilna Ghetto.

    Dovid Katz, former professor of Yiddish Studies at Vilnius University, has spent the past 15 years editing Defending History, a site dedicated to fighting Holocaust distortion. He has also participated in numerous events to mark Vilnius 700.

    “While it is very nice that authorities have included Jewish-themed programs in the year’s commemorations dedicated to the city’s history, it is shameful that they have not permanently taken down any of the state-sponsored public space shrines to Holocaust collaborators and perpetrators,” Katz said.

    He stressed that the narratives downplaying Lithuanian culpability in the Holocaust emanated from a relatively few influential nationalists, not the mass of Lithuanians celebrating Vilnius.

    “The problem is with a small ultra-powerful, state-funded ‘history fixing unit’ that dominates on these issues in politics, museums, media, arts and academia.”

    Katz suggested, as well, that the Jewish community should have focused on a different anniversary — and that its attention to the September dates related to the ghetto’s liquidation reified the country’s Holocaust memory problems.

    “Of the thousands of Lithuanian Jewish Holocaust survivors we interviewed over more than three decades, all felt that the appropriate day for commemoration of the Lithuanian Holocaust is June 23rd,” he said. On that day in 1941, “600 years of peace was broken by the outbreak of barbarity, humiliation, slaughter in hundreds of towns across the land. By the end of 1941, all the close to 250 or so storied shtétlakh (shtetls) were destroyed, as were the overwhelming majority of Lithuanian Jews.”

    Focusing only on the liquidation of the ghetto, he said, “reflects a state attempt to deflect from the primary narrative via one that focuses only on the Germans (the ghetto history) and not on the thousands of local participants all across the land.”

    Vilnius 700 events are scheduled through the end of the year, ensuring that the tensions over history and memory in the city continue to simmer.

    But not all see the need to bring up the city and Holocaust anniversaries in the same conversation. David Roskies, chair emeritus in Yiddish literature at the Jewish Theological Seminary in New York, wrote in an email: “I don’t see any intersection between the two anniversaries. It’s pure happenstance. Who can say with any precision when Vilnius was established?”

  164. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Trump is a wildcard so who knows what he would have done. Trump did kill about 200 Wagners in Syria, did halt Nordstream with his sanctions, and did break with Obama''s policy and provided lethal weapons to Ukraine so the idea that he is simply a Russian shill is not true. In any ways, he is not like MAGA (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).

    I don't make much of his praise for Putin, it's normal diplomacy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    I wonder just how much of Trump’s anti-Russian moves were done in response to Russiagate pressure, though–as in, in order to avoid looking like a Russian tool/shill and thus to avoid giving more fodder to his political opponents. But these calculations could be less relevant in a second term since Trump himself won’t legally be able to seek a third term. Though if some other member of his close family will subsequently have their own political ambitions, then this could also affect Trump’s calculations.

    The Biden position on Nord Stream 2 was a mistake in hindsight but without hindsight, the logic was relatively sound: As in, giving Russia an incentive to cooperate more with the West by giving Russia something significantly to lose if it severely misbehaved. It didn’t work, of course, but the logic was reasonable. Similar to Israel allowing Palestinian guest workers from the Gaza Strip to work in Israel and thus giving the Palestinians something to lose if Hamas severely misbehaved. That ultimately didn’t work either, but again, the logic in regards to this was still reasonable. I guess that with hindsight the logic should be not to appease at all if you’re not going to appease enough. (The same logic applied to appeasing Hitler, BTW. Letting Hitler have all of Eastern Europe as his sphere of influence/demesne would have probably been sufficient Western appeasement of Hitler, but anything short of that would not have been good enough and would have simply made Hitler stronger in any future World War against the West.)

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. XYZ

    Letting Hitler have all of Eastern Europe as his sphere of influence/demesne would have probably been sufficient Western appeasement of Hitler, but anything short of that would not have been good enough and would have simply made Hitler stronger in any future World War against the West.)

    They already tried appeasement.

    He broke the Munich agreement and was directly challenging the global image of Britain by invading Poland.

    Churchhill correctly read Hitler. He wasn't going to stop until he had it all or was dead. He even said that Germany should be a great empire or should not exist. Hitler also wanted revenge over WW1 and even if he went East first he mostly likely would have double backed unless someone killed him. In a scenario where he attacks the USSR first it would have meant the collapse of Moscow unless the Allies joined the war which would have been unlikely. Then Hitler opens a single front against the West and with plenty of oil and factories out of bombing range. Maybe he lets Britain stand but I doubt it. I don't think he could have resisted the idea of strolling around the castle. He really viewed himself as a warlord of history and thought nothing of killing Germans for his glory.

    Stalin also understood Hitler in the late 1930s but incorrectly assumed that Hitler would wait until 44/45 before attacking the USSR. Stalin ended up wiser than anyone assumed. He was worried about the West letting Hitler go East and made a deal with him to buy time. Stalin was building tank factories for a war against Hitler while the two were shaking hands.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  165. @A123
    @AP



    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.
     
    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.
     
    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)

    MAGA/Trump's openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars. Those were among the reasons why the establishment was so upset with Trump's 1st term successes.

    Does anyone believe that Trump's 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression? That is clearly a policy exclusive to Not-The-President Biden. The Big Guy got his 10% on that...

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Sean

    MAGA/Trump’s openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars.

    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898

    Those were the same anti-tank weapons used to push out Putin.

    Good move Trump.

    Does anyone believe that Trump’s 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression?

    No one has approved $100 billion in spending.

    Most of the military aid has been in the form of legacy hardware. It’s sitting around and was purchased decades ago. There was in fact a question of what to do with all the Bradleys and F16s. Not easy to ebay.

    • Thanks: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson



    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.
     
    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.
     
    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Let me recap:

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)
    ___

    I hate to use bold font in such an authoritative manner, but.... What other choice do I have?

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

  166. @Beckow
    @AP

    As always you double down on your idiocy. I wrote:


    ...the previous all-European assaults on the eastern barbarians failed…
     
    Do you understand the meaning of "all-European"? Let me give you a hint: Japan, Afghanistan or Poland in 1920 were not all-European attacks on Russia. So why do you go of into the weeds and bring up unrelated stuff?

    The current war is closest to an all-European assault on Russia - just like Napoleon, Hitler, or Swedes Poles, Ottomans. They all failed, some catastrophically. You are free to dream of Afghanis or Japan, those were not existential conflicts. We can make the same list about US: from Vietnam to Afghanistan a chain of lost wars, but it doesn't matter. Learn how to think straight.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    The current war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can’t regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).

    • Replies: @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    The current war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can’t regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).
     
    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea. Given EU misbehaviour, this is not unreasonable on their part.

    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will -- fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.
    ___

    What do you hope to obtain by discounting & disregarding sincere Russian belief about European aggression?

    You do not have to -- Agree about the level of the threat.
    You do have to -- Understand that nations react on how THEY perceive the threat.

    Not grasping that distinction could start a thermonuclear war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    , @Beckow
    @Mr. XYZ


    ...war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations
     
    Really? Let's play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed, Russian bases in Crimea become Nato bases, Kiev after cleansing the territories of Russians turns Ukraine into a heavily armed anti-Russian Nato state. At any point in the next few decades if Russia goes through internal problems (they often do), Nato will be ready to pounce, threaten and blackmail.

    Yeah, some of it is imagination. But big countries are paranoid for a reason - try to imagine a similar scenario for US with Canada or Mexico, or UK with Ireland. But of course, you don't use the same logic when it comes to you. Predictably.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ

  167. @AP
    @A123


    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K
     
    It was around $250 million.

    In total, Trump provided $391 million in military aid for Ukraine.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/09/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-aid-package-to-ukraine-that-trump-delayed/

    Burisma Biden was bribed
     
    That would be odd because Biden's pal was exiled by the Ukrainian government.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden’s job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn’t a new thing from a historical perspective:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celebrity_branding

    And it’s unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration, and Biden eventually becoming US President wasn’t too foreseeable before 2020 since in 2016, Hillary was Democrats’ favorite for this by far and even in 2020, Biden only won the Democratic nomination due to the black vote in South Carolina, which caused huge momentum to go in his favor (he previously came in fifth place in New Hampshire).

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. XYZ


    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden’s job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn’t a new thing from a historical perspective:
     
    Possible.

    The Ukrainian in charge of Burisma, whose prosecution was the focus of the conspiracy theories involving the Biden administration, was a pro-Russian. Which makes the idea of Biden funding Ukraine because of Burisma absurd.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykola_Zlochevsky

    Mykola Vladislavovich Zlochevsky (Ukrainian: Микола Владиславович Злочевський; born 14 June 1966) is a Ukrainian oil and natural gas businessman, politician, and an oligarch. Zlochevsky was Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources from July 2010 until April 2012 and was the deputy secretary for Economic and Social Security of the National Security and Defense Council from April 2012 until February 2014 when Euromaidan occurred.[1][2][3][4]He is wanted by Ukrainian authorities for attempting to bribe the prosecutors in order to drop all charges against him

    And it’s unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration
     
    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration's policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  168. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    I wonder just how much of Trump's anti-Russian moves were done in response to Russiagate pressure, though--as in, in order to avoid looking like a Russian tool/shill and thus to avoid giving more fodder to his political opponents. But these calculations could be less relevant in a second term since Trump himself won't legally be able to seek a third term. Though if some other member of his close family will subsequently have their own political ambitions, then this could also affect Trump's calculations.

    The Biden position on Nord Stream 2 was a mistake in hindsight but without hindsight, the logic was relatively sound: As in, giving Russia an incentive to cooperate more with the West by giving Russia something significantly to lose if it severely misbehaved. It didn't work, of course, but the logic was reasonable. Similar to Israel allowing Palestinian guest workers from the Gaza Strip to work in Israel and thus giving the Palestinians something to lose if Hamas severely misbehaved. That ultimately didn't work either, but again, the logic in regards to this was still reasonable. I guess that with hindsight the logic should be not to appease at all if you're not going to appease enough. (The same logic applied to appeasing Hitler, BTW. Letting Hitler have all of Eastern Europe as his sphere of influence/demesne would have probably been sufficient Western appeasement of Hitler, but anything short of that would not have been good enough and would have simply made Hitler stronger in any future World War against the West.)

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Letting Hitler have all of Eastern Europe as his sphere of influence/demesne would have probably been sufficient Western appeasement of Hitler, but anything short of that would not have been good enough and would have simply made Hitler stronger in any future World War against the West.)

    They already tried appeasement.

    He broke the Munich agreement and was directly challenging the global image of Britain by invading Poland.

    Churchhill correctly read Hitler. He wasn’t going to stop until he had it all or was dead. He even said that Germany should be a great empire or should not exist. Hitler also wanted revenge over WW1 and even if he went East first he mostly likely would have double backed unless someone killed him. In a scenario where he attacks the USSR first it would have meant the collapse of Moscow unless the Allies joined the war which would have been unlikely. Then Hitler opens a single front against the West and with plenty of oil and factories out of bombing range. Maybe he lets Britain stand but I doubt it. I don’t think he could have resisted the idea of strolling around the castle. He really viewed himself as a warlord of history and thought nothing of killing Germans for his glory.

    Stalin also understood Hitler in the late 1930s but incorrectly assumed that Hitler would wait until 44/45 before attacking the USSR. Stalin ended up wiser than anyone assumed. He was worried about the West letting Hitler go East and made a deal with him to buy time. Stalin was building tank factories for a war against Hitler while the two were shaking hands.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @John Johnson


    They already tried appeasement.
     
    They didn't try appeasement on a sufficiently large scale. I'm talking Eastern Europe-sized scale here.

    He broke the Munich agreement and was directly challenging the global image of Britain by invading Poland.
     
    The Polish guarantee and alliance was a mistake since it severely pissed off Hitler, IMHO. If Britain was going to do it, then it should have done it alongside the Soviet Union (since otherwise Poland would be completely at the Nazis' mercy for at least a couple of years) and also committed not to making Danzig or even the Polish Corridor a casus belli. In other words, agree to tolerate a limited Nazi incursion into Poland ('coz that's better than a World War) but not a full Nazi conquest of Poland (which, again, should have been resisted alongside the Soviet Union).

    But if a Soviet alliance really was so intolerable to Chamberlain, then no Polish guarantee/alliance and telling Poland to make a deal with Hitler instead while encouraging Hitler to continue looking to expand to the east in the Soviet Union's direction would have probably been the best move, morality aside. Hitler was going to have a giant headache ruling over an extremely massive number of Slavs anyway, and with semi-normal relations with the West, genocide is going to be harder for the Nazis to do. IIRC, Goebbels said somewhere that even the Holocaust would have been impossible during peacetime.

    Churchhill correctly read Hitler. He wasn’t going to stop until he had it all or was dead. He even said that Germany should be a great empire or should not exist. Hitler also wanted revenge over WW1 and even if he went East first he mostly likely would have double backed unless someone killed him. In a scenario where he attacks the USSR first it would have meant the collapse of Moscow unless the Allies joined the war which would have been unlikely. Then Hitler opens a single front against the West and with plenty of oil and factories out of bombing range. Maybe he lets Britain stand but I doubt it. I don’t think he could have resisted the idea of strolling around the castle. He really viewed himself as a warlord of history and thought nothing of killing Germans for his glory.
     
    The Anglo-French should have tried to aggressively kiss Hitler's ass in such a scenario in order to ever avoid getting invaded by him. Hitler could do a Transfer Agreement with the pro-German elements in Alsace-Lorraine moving to Germany similar to what he and Mussolini agreed to do with the South Tyrol Germans:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Tyrol_Option_Agreement

    A similar model could have worked for Eupen and Malmedy's Germans.

    Stalin also understood Hitler in the late 1930s but incorrectly assumed that Hitler would wait until

    44/45 before attacking the USSR. Stalin ended up wiser than anyone assumed. He was worried about the West letting Hitler go East and made a deal with him to buy time. Stalin was building tank factories for a war against Hitler while the two were shaking hands.
     
    Stalin should have tried harder to secure a Western alliance in 1939, such as by not insisting on the USSR's right to occupy its neighbors in the event that they will commit "indirect aggression" against the USSR, which AFAIK, the Anglo-French interpreted as a carte blanche for the USSR to occupy its neighbors, as indeed happened for decades after 1945 in real life.
  169. @John Johnson
    @A123

    MAGA/Trump’s openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars.

    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898

    Those were the same anti-tank weapons used to push out Putin.

    Good move Trump.

    Does anyone believe that Trump’s 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression?

    No one has approved $100 billion in spending.

    Most of the military aid has been in the form of legacy hardware. It's sitting around and was purchased decades ago. There was in fact a question of what to do with all the Bradleys and F16s. Not easy to ebay.

    Replies: @A123

    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.

    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.

    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Let me recap:

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)
    ___

    I hate to use bold font in such an authoritative manner, but…. What other choice do I have?

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Are you going to suggest that I was arguing with myself over boomers?

    The simple answer is no. I really don't care much about theology outside of historical context. I could tell you the basics on Luther while AP could have a discussion with a professor on the exact changes that he made. It's really not my interest. In fact I find it a bit odd that people go to school for 10 years to discuss the Bible. Philosophy of religion too quickly turns into Christians sipping tea instead of helping people. Not that I hold secular philosophy in higher regard. I think post-grad philosophy programs should be banned. A total waste of money and time for men.

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened

    That "thing" happened? You can't even write that Trump sold Ukraine anti-tank weapons?

    There was an obvious political component to the sale given that Putin was opposed. If Trump had refused to sell them weapons you would have decreed it as evidence of him not supporting Ukraine.

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    So if Biden were to sell weapons to Hamas that would be a purely domestic policy?

    I don't know why you would assume that Trump would look the other way on Ukraine. It's entirely possible but it is also possible that Putin could have insulted Trump's ego by lying about it being a training exercise. Trump could have gone on a spending spree like he did with Operation Warpspeed. There isn't another DC Republican that would have spent as much on the vaccines. For the record I think he did the right thing on Warpspeed and also the anti-tank weapons sale to Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  170. German_reader says:

    Not much of a surprise, but apparently confirmed now that there are policy discussions in Israel about mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza as a possible solution:
    https://www.972mag.com/intelligence-ministry-gaza-population-transfer/
    Probably not much chance of it happening, since Egypt won’t play along (bizarre how the paper states Israel should create a “sterile zone within Egypt” to prevent return of Palestinians), and I suppose by now even Blinken’s State Department has realized how bad something like this would look for the US.
    Of course not all that remarkable for the region (see Karabakh recently, or the terror against unwanted minorities in Iraq after the 2003 war), but still, Western normies who let themselves be propagandized into uncritical “solidarity” with Israel are such fools.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader

    Ethnic cleansing is vile and immoral, at least short of truly exceptional circumstances (maybe the aftermath of WWII would qualify as such an exceptional circumstance. Maybe). Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing. Though this doesn't necessarily mean that Israel would actually go for it. Personally, though, I think that it's highly regretful that there have been no peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ever since 2014. A peace settlement with a Palestinian Authority-ruled puppet state should be considered by Israel as a serious option if Israel was actually smart about this. At least seriously consider it as a superior alternative to both non-stop war and ethnic cleansing.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @German_reader
    @German_reader

    One should read the entire document. Appendix A should be especially interesting for many readers here, it lists how other countries could be useful for a Gaza expulsion programme.
    Of note:


    - Countries in Europe and especially the Mediterranean - Greece/Spain

    Contribution: Absorption and settlement.

    Incentives: Absorption budgets and financial support to Arab countries for the benefit of this process.

    [...]

    Canada

    Contribution: Absorption of the population and its settlement within the framework of the permissive immigration policy.

     

    Replies: @LatW, @Negronicus, @songbird

  171. Interesting piece about China’s rise that harshly criticizes both Mearsheimer’s offensive realism and Allison’s Thucydides’ trap as simplistic/overly deterministic:
    https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/addressing-the-china-challenge-realisms-right-and-wrong/

    • Thanks: Mr. XYZ
  172. @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow

    The current war really isn't existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians' own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can't regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    The current war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can’t regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).

    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea. Given EU misbehaviour, this is not unreasonable on their part.

    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will — fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.
    ___

    What do you hope to obtain by discounting & disregarding sincere Russian belief about European aggression?

    You do not have to — Agree about the level of the threat.
    You do have to — Understand that nations react on how THEY perceive the threat.

    Not grasping that distinction could start a thermonuclear war.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @A123

    The West was not going to support a Ukrainian revanchist war on Crimea or even likely the Donbass before Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine in February 2022.

    , @John Johnson
    @A123

    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea.

    How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexander_Lukin2/publication/326972728/figure/fig1/AS:658348458385408@1533973912156/Russias-GDP-1989-2016-in-billions-of-US-dollars-Source-World-Bank.png


    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will — fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.

    You are saying they would launch nuclear weapons if they are pushed back to their 2021 border?

    Or 2013 border?

    What makes you think a Russian general would turn the key in that scenario? Putin can't launch them on his own.

    LOOKS LIKE WE DONT GET DONBAS OR CRIMEA
    WELP LETS KILL OURSELVES AND OUR FAMILIES

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @QCIC

  173. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Trump is a wildcard so who knows what he would have done. Trump did kill about 200 Wagners in Syria, did halt Nordstream with his sanctions, and did break with Obama''s policy and provided lethal weapons to Ukraine so the idea that he is simply a Russian shill is not true. In any ways, he is not like MAGA (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).

    I don't make much of his praise for Putin, it's normal diplomacy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    (for example, he is also justly proud of the vaccine created in record time through his policies).

    TBF, he would have a vested interest in the creation of this vaccine in order to ensure that a lot of his own supporters would not have died on him before the 2020 election. After all, as the 2000 election showed, any vote can be crucial.

    I know that blacks and Hispanics have a large vaccine-skeptical constituency, but among whites, AFAIK, the most vaccine-skeptical ones are conservative/Republican whites. It’s in Republicans’ own interests to change attitudes in regards to this so that COVID-19 won’t kill as many of their constituents.

  174. @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    The current war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can’t regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).
     
    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea. Given EU misbehaviour, this is not unreasonable on their part.

    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will -- fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.
    ___

    What do you hope to obtain by discounting & disregarding sincere Russian belief about European aggression?

    You do not have to -- Agree about the level of the threat.
    You do have to -- Understand that nations react on how THEY perceive the threat.

    Not grasping that distinction could start a thermonuclear war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    The West was not going to support a Ukrainian revanchist war on Crimea or even likely the Donbass before Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine in February 2022.

  175. @A123
    @John Johnson



    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.
     
    Trump approved a weapons sale to Ukraine that Putin opposed.
     
    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Let me recap:

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)
    ___

    I hate to use bold font in such an authoritative manner, but.... What other choice do I have?

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Are you going to suggest that I was arguing with myself over boomers?

    The simple answer is no. I really don’t care much about theology outside of historical context. I could tell you the basics on Luther while AP could have a discussion with a professor on the exact changes that he made. It’s really not my interest. In fact I find it a bit odd that people go to school for 10 years to discuss the Bible. Philosophy of religion too quickly turns into Christians sipping tea instead of helping people. Not that I hold secular philosophy in higher regard. I think post-grad philosophy programs should be banned. A total waste of money and time for men.

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened

    That “thing” happened? You can’t even write that Trump sold Ukraine anti-tank weapons?

    There was an obvious political component to the sale given that Putin was opposed. If Trump had refused to sell them weapons you would have decreed it as evidence of him not supporting Ukraine.

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    So if Biden were to sell weapons to Hamas that would be a purely domestic policy?

    I don’t know why you would assume that Trump would look the other way on Ukraine. It’s entirely possible but it is also possible that Putin could have insulted Trump’s ego by lying about it being a training exercise. Trump could have gone on a spending spree like he did with Operation Warpspeed. There isn’t another DC Republican that would have spent as much on the vaccines. For the record I think he did the right thing on Warpspeed and also the anti-tank weapons sale to Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @John Johnson


    There was an obvious political component to the sale given that Putin was opposed. If Trump had refused to sell them weapons you would have decreed it as evidence of him not supporting Ukraine.
     
    By selling weapons to Ukraine, Trump in effect can be seen as the architect behind kremlinstoogeA123's incessant claims that Ukraine is waging an offensive war against Russia. :-)

    https://images.cartoonstock.com/lowres/ukraine-crisis-ukraine_war-ukrainian_army-russian_invasion_of_ukraine-vladimir_putin-ukraine_fightback-CS576163_low.jpg
    Solid proof and a depiction of kremlinnstoogeA123's claims that Ukraine is waging an offensive war against Russia.

  176. @German_reader
    Not much of a surprise, but apparently confirmed now that there are policy discussions in Israel about mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza as a possible solution:
    https://www.972mag.com/intelligence-ministry-gaza-population-transfer/
    Probably not much chance of it happening, since Egypt won't play along (bizarre how the paper states Israel should create a "sterile zone within Egypt" to prevent return of Palestinians), and I suppose by now even Blinken's State Department has realized how bad something like this would look for the US.
    Of course not all that remarkable for the region (see Karabakh recently, or the terror against unwanted minorities in Iraq after the 2003 war), but still, Western normies who let themselves be propagandized into uncritical "solidarity" with Israel are such fools.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    Ethnic cleansing is vile and immoral, at least short of truly exceptional circumstances (maybe the aftermath of WWII would qualify as such an exceptional circumstance. Maybe). Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing. Though this doesn’t necessarily mean that Israel would actually go for it. Personally, though, I think that it’s highly regretful that there have been no peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ever since 2014. A peace settlement with a Palestinian Authority-ruled puppet state should be considered by Israel as a serious option if Israel was actually smart about this. At least seriously consider it as a superior alternative to both non-stop war and ethnic cleansing.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mr. XYZ


    Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing.
     
    The leaked paper explicitly states that having the PA in power in Gaza would be undesirable for Israel, since the separation between Gaza and the West bank is an important obstacle to demands for a Palestinian state.
    This is all pretty obvious and I don't even want to get moralistic about it, it just annoys me that the msm discourse that is being parroted by many normies paints such a grotesquely different picture.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  177. @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    The current war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can’t regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).
     
    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea. Given EU misbehaviour, this is not unreasonable on their part.

    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will -- fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.
    ___

    What do you hope to obtain by discounting & disregarding sincere Russian belief about European aggression?

    You do not have to -- Agree about the level of the threat.
    You do have to -- Understand that nations react on how THEY perceive the threat.

    Not grasping that distinction could start a thermonuclear war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea.

    How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it:

    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will — fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.

    You are saying they would launch nuclear weapons if they are pushed back to their 2021 border?

    Or 2013 border?

    What makes you think a Russian general would turn the key in that scenario? Putin can’t launch them on his own.

    LOOKS LIKE WE DONT GET DONBAS OR CRIMEA
    WELP LETS KILL OURSELVES AND OUR FAMILIES

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @John Johnson

    FWIW, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield if Putin feels that a decisive loss in Ukraine will put his regime in existential peril, with Putin firing any Russian general(s) who will disobey his orders in regards to this. However, you are very much correct that, for the Russian people, even losing Crimea is not existential since they could simply build a new Crimea in the Kuban afterwards, along with even some/many of Crimea's pro-Russian people voluntarily resettling in the Kuban as a part of this process.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    The Crimean port is not strategic as long as Turkey is aligned with the West. How could it be, the Turkish straits can be closed to all traffic in a serious war scenario.

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn't seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    The people running the US government and military are mostly idiots. They should not be allowed to play nuclear standoff with Russia.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @John Johnson

  178. German_reader says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader

    Ethnic cleansing is vile and immoral, at least short of truly exceptional circumstances (maybe the aftermath of WWII would qualify as such an exceptional circumstance. Maybe). Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing. Though this doesn't necessarily mean that Israel would actually go for it. Personally, though, I think that it's highly regretful that there have been no peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ever since 2014. A peace settlement with a Palestinian Authority-ruled puppet state should be considered by Israel as a serious option if Israel was actually smart about this. At least seriously consider it as a superior alternative to both non-stop war and ethnic cleansing.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing.

    The leaked paper explicitly states that having the PA in power in Gaza would be undesirable for Israel, since the separation between Gaza and the West bank is an important obstacle to demands for a Palestinian state.
    This is all pretty obvious and I don’t even want to get moralistic about it, it just annoys me that the msm discourse that is being parroted by many normies paints such a grotesquely different picture.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader


    The leaked paper explicitly states that having the PA in power in Gaza would be undesirable for Israel, since the separation between Gaza and the West bank is an important obstacle to demands for a Palestinian state.
     
    If Israel's leadership does not want a Palestinian state, then Yeah, restoring the PA to Gaza would not make sense. I personally think that creating a Palestinian state (as an Israeli puppet in light of Israel's 9/11, with borders similar to those in the 2003 Geneva Initiative, but slightly more in favor of Israel) is the right and moral thing to do, but Yeah, if Israel's leadership disagrees, then it would be understandable (while, of course, also a war crime and extremely tragic) to understand why it would prefer the mass exodus/expulsion of the Gazan population.

    Honestly, accepting the Gazans would be good for Egypt. They would get additional human capital and these Gazans could help develop the Sinai. Though maybe they would prefer to move to Egypt's large cities instead, if they would actually be allowed to do so. Though admittedly Egypt has a bad historical experience with Palestinian immigrants: Specifically the Hyksos in ancient Egypt.

    But to be fair, if Arab and Muslim countries think that Gazan refugees are going to cause too much trouble for them, then how exactly, other than perhaps their cognitive elites, are they actually supposed to integrate in the West, where the cultural gap between them and the general societies will be even greater?
  179. German_reader says:
    @German_reader
    Not much of a surprise, but apparently confirmed now that there are policy discussions in Israel about mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza as a possible solution:
    https://www.972mag.com/intelligence-ministry-gaza-population-transfer/
    Probably not much chance of it happening, since Egypt won't play along (bizarre how the paper states Israel should create a "sterile zone within Egypt" to prevent return of Palestinians), and I suppose by now even Blinken's State Department has realized how bad something like this would look for the US.
    Of course not all that remarkable for the region (see Karabakh recently, or the terror against unwanted minorities in Iraq after the 2003 war), but still, Western normies who let themselves be propagandized into uncritical "solidarity" with Israel are such fools.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    One should read the entire document. Appendix A should be especially interesting for many readers here, it lists how other countries could be useful for a Gaza expulsion programme.
    Of note:

    – Countries in Europe and especially the Mediterranean – Greece/Spain

    Contribution: Absorption and settlement.

    Incentives: Absorption budgets and financial support to Arab countries for the benefit of this process.

    […]

    Canada

    Contribution: Absorption of the population and its settlement within the framework of the permissive immigration policy.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @German_reader

    Good to see such a transparent doc (even if it's just a guidance document). Not sure Israel can pull this off, the Jews are no longer at the height of their power the way they used to be during the Bush era.

    Well, this is what I was alluding to when I said expulsions have been normalized.

    Interesting that they use "de-Nazification" as a real term.

    This part is so entitled that it is hilariously funny:


    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren't so insane and crazy and if it wasn't for all the deaths there.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @A123

    , @Negronicus
    @German_reader

    That's some crazy shit, man.

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

    , @songbird
    @German_reader

    Find it pretty unsurprising on the whole, but that's interesting and puzzling how it says 'especially' Greece/Spain. What could it mean? Less fatigue from 2015, or a political environment that is seen as more tractable?

    Right now, I'm about 50/50 on whether they will annex part of Gaza, unofficially. Just never let the people back into say the Northerrn 1/4. And in 20 or 30 years time, when it is more convenient, the US will recognize it.

    Sudden Death's idea that there will be no refugees moved to the West seems less and less likely to me. I predict several hundred thousand. But they may try to play with the numbers a bit - make it seem lower, then do family reunification. I don't think anyone is honest with numbers these days.

  180. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden's job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn't a new thing from a historical perspective:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celebrity_branding

    And it's unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration, and Biden eventually becoming US President wasn't too foreseeable before 2020 since in 2016, Hillary was Democrats' favorite for this by far and even in 2020, Biden only won the Democratic nomination due to the black vote in South Carolina, which caused huge momentum to go in his favor (he previously came in fifth place in New Hampshire).

    Replies: @AP

    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden’s job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn’t a new thing from a historical perspective:

    Possible.

    The Ukrainian in charge of Burisma, whose prosecution was the focus of the conspiracy theories involving the Biden administration, was a pro-Russian. Which makes the idea of Biden funding Ukraine because of Burisma absurd.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykola_Zlochevsky

    Mykola Vladislavovich Zlochevsky (Ukrainian: Микола Владиславович Злочевський; born 14 June 1966) is a Ukrainian oil and natural gas businessman, politician, and an oligarch. Zlochevsky was Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources from July 2010 until April 2012 and was the deputy secretary for Economic and Social Security of the National Security and Defense Council from April 2012 until February 2014 when Euromaidan occurred.[1][2][3][4]He is wanted by Ukrainian authorities for attempting to bribe the prosecutors in order to drop all charges against him

    And it’s unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration

    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration’s policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    Would Obama really care about the Biden family's business connections in Ukraine to the extent that they would help him determine his Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe policy, though? I'm not sure that Obama actually cared that much about the finances of his VP's family, TBH, especially considering that his VP's family was relatively well-off after Obama's election as US President either way.


    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration’s policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.
     
    Makes one wonder why exactly the Obama administration didn't try to get the EU to cancel its Eastern Partnership program with various former USSR states if the Obama administration genuinely wanted to appease Russia. Or was this a line that even the Obama administration would not dare to cross, even if it failed to realize just how provocative Russia would actually find the Eastern Partnership due to it making it impossible for Russia to peacefully reintegrate any of its ex-USSR neighbors who will sign Association Agreements with the EU under the Eastern Partnership scheme (which in turn would make it impossible for Russia to regain the superpower status that it had lost back in 1991)?

    I suppose that an even more Russia-friendly Obama administration might have aggressively pressured the EU to cancel the Eastern Partnership program in exchange for Russia agreeing to end its military cooperation with China and promising in writing to wage a total trade embargo against China if China will ever attack Taiwan, similar to what the US did to Japan in 1941 several months before Pearl Harbor when Japan attacked French Indochina. But frankly, I'm skeptical that Russia would have actually agreed to such a deal even back in the 2009-2014 time period due to it likely believing that it should not sacrifice its relations with China (a huge country and trading/strategic partner with over a billion people) for the sake of US or Taiwanese interests.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  181. @German_reader
    @German_reader

    One should read the entire document. Appendix A should be especially interesting for many readers here, it lists how other countries could be useful for a Gaza expulsion programme.
    Of note:


    - Countries in Europe and especially the Mediterranean - Greece/Spain

    Contribution: Absorption and settlement.

    Incentives: Absorption budgets and financial support to Arab countries for the benefit of this process.

    [...]

    Canada

    Contribution: Absorption of the population and its settlement within the framework of the permissive immigration policy.

     

    Replies: @LatW, @Negronicus, @songbird

    Good to see such a transparent doc (even if it’s just a guidance document). Not sure Israel can pull this off, the Jews are no longer at the height of their power the way they used to be during the Bush era.

    Well, this is what I was alluding to when I said expulsions have been normalized.

    Interesting that they use “de-Nazification” as a real term.

    This part is so entitled that it is hilariously funny:

    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.

    This would be funny if it weren’t so insane and crazy and if it wasn’t for all the deaths there.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW

    Israel's war government is only three people, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant.

    Benny Gantz is liberal so probably wouldn't support that paper of 13th October.

    Yoav Gallant is center-right, so you could imagine it's possible he could support it, although not sure as he is one of the more moderate people in the Likud.

    The view you receive from journalists, Netanyahu is viewed as indecisive without his own views except in terms of winning elections. They write like he can change his view according to the advisors, international partners and polls. Who knows if this journalists' views is correct or if Netanyahu actually plans anything.

    , @German_reader
    @LatW


    Not sure Israel can pull this off
     
    I don't think they can, the international reaction would be too severe and the damage to US reputation too great. But it's clearly being seriously considered by parts of Likud at least, and that's a good reason to keep one's distance from them and not to buy this narrative that their fight is the same as one's own.
    , @A123
    @LatW



    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren’t so insane and crazy and if it wasn’t for all the deaths there.
     
    This part is an accurate reflection of physical realty. "Iranian Hamas unilaterally lost the land" by destroying the fresh water aquifer for Gaza. The aquifer cannot be fixed. Desalinization is unaffordably expensive, energy intensive, and fragile should facilities be used to launch terror rockets.

    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging "assistance of your Muslim brothers" to relocate is conceptually sound.

    Not sure Israel can pull this off
     
    This really is, "Can the international community as a whole pull this off?"

    Short-term / Now, while emotions are high, clearly not. Expulsions will not work. Sending people to an area with no infrastructure will not work. Muslim colonists stuck in Gaza will remain there for a while longer.

    Long-term / What will the reconstruction look like? Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad. However, the problem remains essentially unsolvable. How can 2.5MM live on surface water that can support only a fraction of that?

    Creating a New Muslim Palestine with the "assistance of your Muslim brothers" is a viable option. Helping people relocate to viable Muslim religious lands that have sufficient water resources is a valid option. I previously suggested VOLUNTARY departures out of Gaza would occur if there was a place to go.

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.

    Off loading them on the West seems less than serious. Presumably, this is intended as the proverbial "warning shot across the bow" to nations that are spending money to make the situation worse. Illegal EU backed construction in Area C is an example of such provocation.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @LatW

  182. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ


    Question about Burisma: How much do you think that Hunter Biden’s job at Burisma was simply an attempt at better branding: As in, giving the company a famous employee in order to increase both its visibility and the popularity of its brand? Celebrity branding isn’t a new thing from a historical perspective:
     
    Possible.

    The Ukrainian in charge of Burisma, whose prosecution was the focus of the conspiracy theories involving the Biden administration, was a pro-Russian. Which makes the idea of Biden funding Ukraine because of Burisma absurd.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mykola_Zlochevsky

    Mykola Vladislavovich Zlochevsky (Ukrainian: Микола Владиславович Злочевський; born 14 June 1966) is a Ukrainian oil and natural gas businessman, politician, and an oligarch. Zlochevsky was Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources from July 2010 until April 2012 and was the deputy secretary for Economic and Social Security of the National Security and Defense Council from April 2012 until February 2014 when Euromaidan occurred.[1][2][3][4]He is wanted by Ukrainian authorities for attempting to bribe the prosecutors in order to drop all charges against him

    And it’s unclear just how much leverage Biden actually had on Ukraine under the Obama Administration
     
    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration's policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Would Obama really care about the Biden family’s business connections in Ukraine to the extent that they would help him determine his Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe policy, though? I’m not sure that Obama actually cared that much about the finances of his VP’s family, TBH, especially considering that his VP’s family was relatively well-off after Obama’s election as US President either way.

    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration’s policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.

    Makes one wonder why exactly the Obama administration didn’t try to get the EU to cancel its Eastern Partnership program with various former USSR states if the Obama administration genuinely wanted to appease Russia. Or was this a line that even the Obama administration would not dare to cross, even if it failed to realize just how provocative Russia would actually find the Eastern Partnership due to it making it impossible for Russia to peacefully reintegrate any of its ex-USSR neighbors who will sign Association Agreements with the EU under the Eastern Partnership scheme (which in turn would make it impossible for Russia to regain the superpower status that it had lost back in 1991)?

    I suppose that an even more Russia-friendly Obama administration might have aggressively pressured the EU to cancel the Eastern Partnership program in exchange for Russia agreeing to end its military cooperation with China and promising in writing to wage a total trade embargo against China if China will ever attack Taiwan, similar to what the US did to Japan in 1941 several months before Pearl Harbor when Japan attacked French Indochina. But frankly, I’m skeptical that Russia would have actually agreed to such a deal even back in the 2009-2014 time period due to it likely believing that it should not sacrifice its relations with China (a huge country and trading/strategic partner with over a billion people) for the sake of US or Taiwanese interests.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. XYZ

    Would Obama really care about the Biden family’s business connections in Ukraine to the extent that they would help him determine his Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe policy, though?

    I actually doubt Obama was involved.

    Obama did not like Biden and could find a better way to make a million dollars. Obama also knew that Biden wanted to be president which means any type of scam could be a trap.

    Burisma smells of Biden running pay to play scams on foreign companies. Then he goes to Obama and depicts the deal as good for the US. Yea boss we talked it over and they changed their mind.

  183. @German_reader
    @Mr. XYZ


    Placing the Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza and then propping them up as long as necessary sounds like a much more moral move for Israel relative to ethnic cleansing.
     
    The leaked paper explicitly states that having the PA in power in Gaza would be undesirable for Israel, since the separation between Gaza and the West bank is an important obstacle to demands for a Palestinian state.
    This is all pretty obvious and I don't even want to get moralistic about it, it just annoys me that the msm discourse that is being parroted by many normies paints such a grotesquely different picture.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    The leaked paper explicitly states that having the PA in power in Gaza would be undesirable for Israel, since the separation between Gaza and the West bank is an important obstacle to demands for a Palestinian state.

    If Israel’s leadership does not want a Palestinian state, then Yeah, restoring the PA to Gaza would not make sense. I personally think that creating a Palestinian state (as an Israeli puppet in light of Israel’s 9/11, with borders similar to those in the 2003 Geneva Initiative, but slightly more in favor of Israel) is the right and moral thing to do, but Yeah, if Israel’s leadership disagrees, then it would be understandable (while, of course, also a war crime and extremely tragic) to understand why it would prefer the mass exodus/expulsion of the Gazan population.

    Honestly, accepting the Gazans would be good for Egypt. They would get additional human capital and these Gazans could help develop the Sinai. Though maybe they would prefer to move to Egypt’s large cities instead, if they would actually be allowed to do so. Though admittedly Egypt has a bad historical experience with Palestinian immigrants: Specifically the Hyksos in ancient Egypt.

    But to be fair, if Arab and Muslim countries think that Gazan refugees are going to cause too much trouble for them, then how exactly, other than perhaps their cognitive elites, are they actually supposed to integrate in the West, where the cultural gap between them and the general societies will be even greater?

  184. @John Johnson
    @A123

    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea.

    How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexander_Lukin2/publication/326972728/figure/fig1/AS:658348458385408@1533973912156/Russias-GDP-1989-2016-in-billions-of-US-dollars-Source-World-Bank.png


    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will — fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.

    You are saying they would launch nuclear weapons if they are pushed back to their 2021 border?

    Or 2013 border?

    What makes you think a Russian general would turn the key in that scenario? Putin can't launch them on his own.

    LOOKS LIKE WE DONT GET DONBAS OR CRIMEA
    WELP LETS KILL OURSELVES AND OUR FAMILIES

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @QCIC

    FWIW, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield if Putin feels that a decisive loss in Ukraine will put his regime in existential peril, with Putin firing any Russian general(s) who will disobey his orders in regards to this. However, you are very much correct that, for the Russian people, even losing Crimea is not existential since they could simply build a new Crimea in the Kuban afterwards, along with even some/many of Crimea’s pro-Russian people voluntarily resettling in the Kuban as a part of this process.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. XYZ

    You guys are really into "resettling" people. That shows a level of disconnect from reality that bodes poorly for your long-term prospects. Nobody is going to be resettling anybody, it is a mad fantasy for people who lost their way.

    In retrospect it is obvious that the whole Ukie enterprise was based on a few irrational desires - the key one was that millions of Russians in Ukraine would just disappear. So you alternate among killing them, banning their language and schools, and now resettling - in effect an expulsion.

    I don't know if you realize but these are Nazi dreams and methods. They backfire. The idea that Ukies with the help of Western desperado neo-con-liberal morons can cleanse Ukraine of Russians is both unworkable and very ugly. So easy with this resettling stuff - people are not sheep to move at your whim. You are talking about tens of millions of people. This is truly descending into madness. I suspect the authors and cheerleaders will pay quite a price for these plane. As they did in the past. This is inhuman.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  185. @AP
    @A123


    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K
     
    It was around $250 million.

    In total, Trump provided $391 million in military aid for Ukraine.

    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/09/25/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-aid-package-to-ukraine-that-trump-delayed/

    Burisma Biden was bribed
     
    That would be odd because Biden's pal was exiled by the Ukrainian government.

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    Also, in regards to this sentence from your previous post:

    I don’t make much of his praise for Putin, it’s normal diplomacy.

    I think that there’s a difference between praise being made at a normal time and praise being made when a foreign leader is about to invade a neighboring country. Had FDR and/or some other prominent US politician(s) praised Hitler on the eve of Hitler’s invasion of Poland, after Hitler had given the Poles his ultimatum but hasn’t actually invaded Poland yet, would you (had you actually already been alive back then) have likewise dismissed this praise as just “normal diplomacy”?

  186. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    By the way, if Moscow allowed the nationalist separatism in the Chechen Republic after 1991, it wouldn’t likely have been an Islamist territory or anything related to Jihad.
     
    With someone like Zakaev they could have been somewhat moderate, if they were able to maintain stability somehow, but they would retain some traditionalist strains. Zakaev may have been able to eventually receive some limited help from Europe, the British, maybe more from Turkey.

    What happened with Basaev and Khattab was not really natural for the Chechen culture, Khattab arrived with money, but Basaev didn't share his kind of Islamist convictions, more of his own traditionalist ones (even though he was also raised as one of those secular pilots).

    Could it be that this failed "SMO" has facilitated the Islamification of Russia? After all, a lot of Slavic men have been wiped out. The place will not stay empty. A new identity will take place.

    Replies: @LatW, @Mr. XYZ, @Dmitry

    The rational policy from the citizens’ view (although citizens’ view doesn’t exist in the region), would be for Moscow to support Chechen independence after 1991.

    In exchange for support from Moscow, support from Grozny against the anti-Russian violence. Although the alternative of what happened shows this would not be a priority, the Russian community of Grozny was killed directly by the Russian army after December 1994.

    If there was funding available for resettlements, then there could have been a population exchange, giving Chechens from Russia, for Russians in Grozny and Gudermes.

    It’s reminding of 2022 in Ukraine.

    In 2014, there was anti-Russian violence in Odessa. But in 2022, the people who were called “Russian” in 2014, Russian aviation and cruise missiles bomb the same population, which the media were saying Kiev persecuted 9 years before.

    failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia?

    Islamists become significant in Chechnia after 1995 as immediately result of the military operation of Moscow. Kadyrov officially announces a jihad in 1995.

    And in the end, the Islamists were easier for Moscow than the nationalists and Kadyrov becomes their servant.

    But the question if they are authentic Islamists? Even an Islamically trained Akhmat Kadyrov is not very authentic and historians say he was a KGB agent in the 1980s.

    So, perhaps, we could still wonder, if real Islam is actually developing in Chechnia under Kadyrov, or if it is still a superficial packaging.

    During those years people were seeking new identities, their world had shattered…

    It’s probably the most psychologically confused population in the world’s history. It creates the discordant and inauthentic copy-paste culture of the 1990s.

    This is why I added Mutsurayev as a stereotypical example

    He plays the music of Nirvana i.e. American rock music. Then he is singing Russian, while adding fake pseudo-Islamic and nationalist themes. While he doesn’t know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.

    Begin with perestroika culture. Listen to fashionable American rock bands. Add spices of the postsoviet nationalism. Then finish with a fake Islamic/jihad packaging after Gulf funding has made this fashionable in your separatist region, without knowing the basic things about Islam.

    But at least Mutsurayev sounds like American rock music, which Americans would consider competent on the musical level.

    It’s not exactly “Shaman”, which songs like rock music for an American children’s animation film, I think Americans would probably not even accept as music for Walmart.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Dmitry


    In exchange for support from Moscow, support from Grozny against the anti-Russian violence.
     
    The power vacuum that was created due to the collapse would probably not have allowed to control this properly - there was a kind of an anarchy for a while (not in the sense of complete chaos, but in the sense of lack of governance and control), that was taken over by certain forces, so hypothetically this deal would be fair, but the question would be enforcing it. Also, I highly doubt that the Chechens of independent Ichkeria would be ok with most of the Russian population staying. Don't know what means there would've been to protect the population from violence.

    Although the alternative of what happened shows this would not be a priority, the Russian community of Grozny was killed directly by the Russian army after December 1994.
     
    The footage shows also a lot of dead Chechens. And many fled prior to the bombings. But you're right that we may never know the exact details. Given the demographics in Grozny, there would've been a lot of Russian casualties. It is cannibalistic that way, given how the Russians had settled across the USSR. I know that some of the Chechens that fled are now in Turkey, but where are the Russians?

    And it's uncanny how the same thing is happening in Eastern Ukraine where it is the Russian speakers being killed. Totally crazy. It's slipping away so the Kremlin is cannibalizing.


    If there was funding available for resettlements, then there could have been a population exchange, giving Chechens from Russia, for Russians in Grozny and Gudermes.
     
    In Estonia, funding was offered (quite a lot actually), but the local Russians didn't take the offer (it's ok, it's understandable). But in Ichkeria they might (or maybe not). Definitely the Chechens from Russia would need to move too, maybe not the married ones, but definitely the gangsters and the MMA fighters. Thanks, but no thanks! Now it may no longer be possible, because they are so entrenched in Moscow now. But they were already there in the 1980s for the education (it's similar how the Baltic awakeners in the 19th century got their education in St Pete).

    And in the end, the Islamists were easier for Moscow than the nationalists and Kadyrov becomes their servant.
     
    Tribal nationalists, especially Chechen ones, are a much tougher nut to crack than fake Islamists who take money from the Saudis (and other shady characters - although they had to take it as they had nothing) and who only recently started giving themselves Arabic nicknames. This is not their true identity, the Chechen tribal culture is. They only got Kadyrov because they had been pounded so hard by that point. We don't know to what extent their tribal culture has remained, but I heard this guy Yangulbaev (Kadyrov critic) complaining recently that there is discontent there, because the culture under Kadyrov is changing too much.

    So, perhaps, we could still wonder, if real Islam is actually developing in Chechnia under Kadyrov, or if it is still a superficial packaging.
     
    It looks rather fake and artificial, but there are definitely traditional strains there, there is some footage where the Chechen rebels were already referring to Jihad in the early 1990s, even during the nationalist uprising. But it's not the same as Wahabbism, that spread later (and not just in Chechnya).
    Not sure what the current version of Kadyrov Islam really is. The ones who are doing those zikrs with the running in a circle, that's their real, authentic religion.

    It’s probably the most psychologically confused population in the world’s history. It creates the discordant and inauthentic copy-paste culture of the 1990s.
     
    It's a huge tragedy and was unduly harsh on the population. But you're being a bit too harsh here, many people enjoyed the freedom and many people were able to find the old identities. Remember that the "copy-paste" part did not just happen in EE, but in Europe in general - for example in Scandinavia they were taking a lot from the American pop culture and the European economic system may have been slightly altered into the neo-liberal direction, eventually as we see now.


    This is why I added Mutsurayev as a stereotypical example

    He plays the music of Nirvana i.e. American rock music. Then he is singing Russian, while adding fake pseudo-Islamic and nationalist themes. While he doesn’t know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.
     
    I understand what you're saying, but you judge a bit too harshly. The appeal of Mutsurayev is something that people have always liked - it is a kind of a simple guy singing soulful songs. Nice, natural raspy, manly voice is not like the desperate screaming of Kurt Cobain. Although that had major appeal, too.

    The themes are anti-Israel Jihadist themes, that he may have picked up from reading history (even recent history) or picked up from his associates. And in those early years of the 1990s these things started to appear in their reality which may have been hidden before or not openly spoken about. Dima, what happens in the secularized city may not have been the same what happens in the auls.


    While he doesn’t know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.
     
    If he sang with the Arabic name, many Russian speakers may not have been able to relate. He is using this name because it resonates more widely.

    Begin with perestroika culture. Listen to fashionable American rock bands. Add spices of the postsoviet nationalism. Then finish with a fake Islamic/jihad packaging after Gulf funding has made this fashionable in your separatist region, without knowing the basic things about Islam.
     
    No, I agree, it is comical (we had similar ridiculous excesses and aping). But there is a deep, authentic culture underneath. Even though the Chechen culture was destroyed in many ways, the Soviets even used to remove their tombstones in the 1940s. They shipped out a lot of their old records that held memories about their older generations.

    It’s not exactly “Shaman”, which songs like rock music for an American children’s animation film, I think Americans would probably not even accept as music for Walmart.
     
    Americans have their own versions of Shaman. His voice is well trained and I like his stage presence (and he does sing folk songs well, he was trained in folk singing), my biggest beef with him is that he is a prodazhnaya shkura, of course, many of these singers are and this is what Russians requested last year, however, it's weird when he sings Я русский, and simultaneously there is a dead baby in a basement in Mariupol whose mother is a Russian speaker. Who they don't even care about.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  187. @Mr. XYZ
    @John Johnson

    FWIW, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield if Putin feels that a decisive loss in Ukraine will put his regime in existential peril, with Putin firing any Russian general(s) who will disobey his orders in regards to this. However, you are very much correct that, for the Russian people, even losing Crimea is not existential since they could simply build a new Crimea in the Kuban afterwards, along with even some/many of Crimea's pro-Russian people voluntarily resettling in the Kuban as a part of this process.

    Replies: @Beckow

    You guys are really into “resettling” people. That shows a level of disconnect from reality that bodes poorly for your long-term prospects. Nobody is going to be resettling anybody, it is a mad fantasy for people who lost their way.

    In retrospect it is obvious that the whole Ukie enterprise was based on a few irrational desires – the key one was that millions of Russians in Ukraine would just disappear. So you alternate among killing them, banning their language and schools, and now resettling – in effect an expulsion.

    I don’t know if you realize but these are Nazi dreams and methods. They backfire. The idea that Ukies with the help of Western desperado neo-con-liberal morons can cleanse Ukraine of Russians is both unworkable and very ugly. So easy with this resettling stuff – people are not sheep to move at your whim. You are talking about tens of millions of people. This is truly descending into madness. I suspect the authors and cheerleaders will pay quite a price for these plane. As they did in the past. This is inhuman.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow

    I specifically said above that the resettlement was going to be voluntary:

    "along with even some/many of Crimea’s pro-Russian people voluntarily resettling in the Kuban as a part of this process."

    Pro-Russians would have the option of staying under Ukrainian rule.

    As for Ukraine's pro-Russians, it no longer had a pro-Russian problem after 2014. Russia should have simply annexed the Donbass into the Russian Reich instead of invading the rest of Ukraine in 2022. As for Ukraine's language policy, it's no worse than that of France and the Baltics, and there is the option of suing Ukraine in European courts if Ukraine is violating any of its treaty obligations.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  188. @LatW
    @German_reader

    Good to see such a transparent doc (even if it's just a guidance document). Not sure Israel can pull this off, the Jews are no longer at the height of their power the way they used to be during the Bush era.

    Well, this is what I was alluding to when I said expulsions have been normalized.

    Interesting that they use "de-Nazification" as a real term.

    This part is so entitled that it is hilariously funny:


    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren't so insane and crazy and if it wasn't for all the deaths there.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @A123

    Israel’s war government is only three people, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant.

    Benny Gantz is liberal so probably wouldn’t support that paper of 13th October.

    Yoav Gallant is center-right, so you could imagine it’s possible he could support it, although not sure as he is one of the more moderate people in the Likud.

    The view you receive from journalists, Netanyahu is viewed as indecisive without his own views except in terms of winning elections. They write like he can change his view according to the advisors, international partners and polls. Who knows if this journalists’ views is correct or if Netanyahu actually plans anything.

  189. @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow

    The current war really isn't existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians' own imaginations (due to their belief that Russia can't regain its Great Power status without Russia being firmly in control of Ukraine).

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    …war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations

    Really? Let’s play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed, Russian bases in Crimea become Nato bases, Kiev after cleansing the territories of Russians turns Ukraine into a heavily armed anti-Russian Nato state. At any point in the next few decades if Russia goes through internal problems (they often do), Nato will be ready to pounce, threaten and blackmail.

    Yeah, some of it is imagination. But big countries are paranoid for a reason – try to imagine a similar scenario for US with Canada or Mexico, or UK with Ireland. But of course, you don’t use the same logic when it comes to you. Predictably.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    Really? Let’s play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed
     
    Russia has already killed 10,000s of Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine. (UN counted around 10,000 but states the actual number is much higher, Mariupol deaths haven’t been counted).

    I’ve never heard Ukrainians in real life wanting to expel millions of people from Eastern Ukraine. This is something one sees online.

    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).

    As a Slovak you demonstrate that you don’t care about 100,000s of dead Eastern Slavs. Maybe it’s some Magyar heritage? Your people eagerly joined Hitler on his crusade, and you are a fan of Stalin, who has worse things to say about his Baltic, Ukrainian and Polish victims than about him. And so you defend as “necessary” Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Mr. XYZ

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow


    Yeah, some of it is imagination. But big countries are paranoid for a reason – try to imagine a similar scenario for US with Canada or Mexico, or UK with Ireland. But of course, you don’t use the same logic when it comes to you. Predictably.
     
    Honestly, I think that the moral thing for the US to do if China will form an alliance with Mexico *that's actually supported by the Mexican people* is to simply accept it for so long as China will make a legally binding commitment not to station nuclear weapons or any other kinds of missiles in Mexico. The US viewed such as arrangement with Cuba after 1962 as tolerable, after all (there were slightly over 10,000 Soviet troops in Cuba in the late Cold War, IIRC, along with a Soviet radar station). When countries have tried to change the composition of neighboring countries' governments by force to make them more to their liking, the results have often been disastrous for these countries:

    1. Austria-Hungary's invasion of pro-Russian Serbia in 1914. Resulted in an extremely brutal World War and in Austria-Hungary's subsequent defeat and dissolution.
    2. Nazi Germany's invasion of pro-Western Poland in 1939. Resulted in an extremely brutal World War and in Nazi Germany's subsequent defeat and destruction, with the subsequent forcible expulsion of up to 15 million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe.
    3. The US's support of the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba: Resulted in the Cuban Missile Crisis, which almost led to nuclear war.
    4. Russia's invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 (the way to which was paved by the 2014 invasion): Resulted in around 100,000 dead Russians and possibly many more by the time that this war will be over. As well as in severe Western economic sanctions against Russia and the total destruction of Russian-Western relations.
  190. @A123
    @AP



    The largest package for Ukraine was ~300K. The date clearly showed that it was about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and shaped for domestic consumption.
     
    He broke with Obama policy and began to provide Ukraine with lethal aid.
     
    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened for domestic reasons. Thank you for reminding everyone that that the domestic U.S. has domestic politics;)

    MAGA/Trump's openly stated, foreign policy goals included improving relations with Russia and reducing involvement in NeoCon Forever Wars. Those were among the reasons why the establishment was so upset with Trump's 1st term successes.

    Does anyone believe that Trump's 2nd term would have approved $100 Billion for Kiev aggression? That is clearly a policy exclusive to Not-The-President Biden. The Big Guy got his 10% on that...

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Sean

    The value is far greater than $100 billion because those weapons are not available on the open market at any price. However I think Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities. If Putin proved obdurate Trump might have actually given far more than Biden has, because Trump hates America being made to look stupid and ineffectual( he has never forgiven Iran for the hostage crisis hence his assassination of the Iranian general).

    • Replies: @A123
    @Sean


    Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities
     
    Trump grasps a critical fact -- How sides perceive issues influences their actions.

    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.

    Things were relatively quiet on this front during Trump's 1st term. There was one-and-only-one moderate sized arms sale of $250-300 million. And, it was clearly about the "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth and related U.S. domestic considerations. Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy. And, Putin was proven correct as no additional transactions of this size occurred later in Trump's 1st term. It was not a first step in changing foreign policy.

    There is every reason to believe that Trump's administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean

  191. German_reader says:
    @LatW
    @German_reader

    Good to see such a transparent doc (even if it's just a guidance document). Not sure Israel can pull this off, the Jews are no longer at the height of their power the way they used to be during the Bush era.

    Well, this is what I was alluding to when I said expulsions have been normalized.

    Interesting that they use "de-Nazification" as a real term.

    This part is so entitled that it is hilariously funny:


    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren't so insane and crazy and if it wasn't for all the deaths there.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @A123

    Not sure Israel can pull this off

    I don’t think they can, the international reaction would be too severe and the damage to US reputation too great. But it’s clearly being seriously considered by parts of Likud at least, and that’s a good reason to keep one’s distance from them and not to buy this narrative that their fight is the same as one’s own.

  192. @John Johnson
    @A123

    Are JJ and AP the same person? Inquiring minds want to know!

    Are you going to suggest that I was arguing with myself over boomers?

    The simple answer is no. I really don't care much about theology outside of historical context. I could tell you the basics on Luther while AP could have a discussion with a professor on the exact changes that he made. It's really not my interest. In fact I find it a bit odd that people go to school for 10 years to discuss the Bible. Philosophy of religion too quickly turns into Christians sipping tea instead of helping people. Not that I hold secular philosophy in higher regard. I think post-grad philosophy programs should be banned. A total waste of money and time for men.

    Because of the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and the domestic need to shape a domestic message for domestic consumption. Yes. That domestic thing happened

    That "thing" happened? You can't even write that Trump sold Ukraine anti-tank weapons?

    There was an obvious political component to the sale given that Putin was opposed. If Trump had refused to sell them weapons you would have decreed it as evidence of him not supporting Ukraine.

    I thought the point was obvious using domestic six times, but apparently it did not penetrate.

    So if Biden were to sell weapons to Hamas that would be a purely domestic policy?

    I don't know why you would assume that Trump would look the other way on Ukraine. It's entirely possible but it is also possible that Putin could have insulted Trump's ego by lying about it being a training exercise. Trump could have gone on a spending spree like he did with Operation Warpspeed. There isn't another DC Republican that would have spent as much on the vaccines. For the record I think he did the right thing on Warpspeed and also the anti-tank weapons sale to Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    There was an obvious political component to the sale given that Putin was opposed. If Trump had refused to sell them weapons you would have decreed it as evidence of him not supporting Ukraine.

    By selling weapons to Ukraine, Trump in effect can be seen as the architect behind kremlinstoogeA123’s incessant claims that Ukraine is waging an offensive war against Russia. 🙂
    Solid proof and a depiction of kremlinnstoogeA123’s claims that Ukraine is waging an offensive war against Russia.

  193. From this:
    to this

    https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

    “We’re not moving forward,” says one of Zelensky’s close aides. Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”

    When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

    In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”

    It’s almost like there’s a thing called maths, and that all being equal a country with x potential soldiers will lose to a country with 4x potential soldiers.

    Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”

    Still, at least the clampdown on corruption will free up resources?

    Amid all the pressure to root out corruption, I assumed, perhaps naively, that officials in Ukraine would think twice before taking a bribe or pocketing state funds. But when I made this point to a top presidential adviser in early October, he asked me to turn off my audio recorder so he could speak more freely. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” he says. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”

    But the indomitable spirit of the nation?

    … his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace.
    On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.

    Only one thing worries me. The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @YetAnotherAnon


    ...The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    Maybe it is belated cya...the article to point to and claim the media wasn't completely delusional.

    This will be hard. A large group of privileged Westerners in government, media, academia lived for years in a happy world where all their wishes were possible, even inevitable. The enemies were evil dwarfs to burn by superior force. The followers losing touch with reality couldn't wait for the next installment.

    All moral constraints were discarded because of "we are virtuous, we have values, so shut up!" - a narcissistic tautology slowly turning into a dead end. Time to retreat, but how? The media cheerleading fluff has been so pervasive that announcing retreat is impossible. But reality is forcing it and they got nothing, no solution.

    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, "paused" offensive (AP, that was a good one), million "dead Russians", blabla...it is just therapy now.

    Time mag wouldn't publish the article without permission. Maybe it is just a shout in the dark

    Replies: @AP

    , @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine's offensive was so bad it can't be denied anymore.
    I don't regard this is a positive development btw, despite my frequent criticisms of Ukraine. If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking, and with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @YetAnotherAnon

  194. @John Johnson
    @A123

    The current war IS existential for Russia as they perceive it. They understand that the European Empire was advancing on their strategic port in Crimea.

    How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it:

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexander_Lukin2/publication/326972728/figure/fig1/AS:658348458385408@1533973912156/Russias-GDP-1989-2016-in-billions-of-US-dollars-Source-World-Bank.png


    As they sincerely believe that it is an existential threat. Russians will — fight, die, and use thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Losing is not an option.

    You are saying they would launch nuclear weapons if they are pushed back to their 2021 border?

    Or 2013 border?

    What makes you think a Russian general would turn the key in that scenario? Putin can't launch them on his own.

    LOOKS LIKE WE DONT GET DONBAS OR CRIMEA
    WELP LETS KILL OURSELVES AND OUR FAMILIES

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @QCIC

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    The Crimean port is not strategic as long as Turkey is aligned with the West. How could it be, the Turkish straits can be closed to all traffic in a serious war scenario.

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn’t seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    The people running the US government and military are mostly idiots. They should not be allowed to play nuclear standoff with Russia.

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @QCIC

    "How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it?"


    John "muh GDP" Johnson.


    "the people running the US government and military are mostly idiots."

    I think they're actually pretty clever, but perhaps too clever for their own good.


    "How do you fancy taking on the world's manufacturing giant AND the world's energy giant at the same time?"

    "Perhaps p*** off every Muslim in the world while we're at it?"

    "Sounds like a plan"
     
    , @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    That doesn't make any sense.

    There are military bases in the Baltics which are closer to Moscow.

    Is the message:
    1. The Baltics are backed by the West and you cannot invade them for the nth time
    2. We plan on destroying Russian society

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn’t seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    Yes and a great reason for Russia to return to its 2021 borders.

    Replies: @QCIC

  195. @YetAnotherAnon
    From this: https://www.moonofalabama.org/17i/z1-ss.jpg

    to this

    https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/


    “We’re not moving forward,” says one of Zelensky’s close aides. Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”

    When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

    In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”
     

    It's almost like there's a thing called maths, and that all being equal a country with x potential soldiers will lose to a country with 4x potential soldiers.

    Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”
     
    Still, at least the clampdown on corruption will free up resources?

    Amid all the pressure to root out corruption, I assumed, perhaps naively, that officials in Ukraine would think twice before taking a bribe or pocketing state funds. But when I made this point to a top presidential adviser in early October, he asked me to turn off my audio recorder so he could speak more freely. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” he says. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”
     
    But the indomitable spirit of the nation?

    ... his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace.
    On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.
     
    Only one thing worries me. The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they're losing?

    Replies: @Beckow, @German_reader

    …The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?

    Maybe it is belated cya...the article to point to and claim the media wasn’t completely delusional.

    This will be hard. A large group of privileged Westerners in government, media, academia lived for years in a happy world where all their wishes were possible, even inevitable. The enemies were evil dwarfs to burn by superior force. The followers losing touch with reality couldn’t wait for the next installment.

    All moral constraints were discarded because of “we are virtuous, we have values, so shut up!” – a narcissistic tautology slowly turning into a dead end. Time to retreat, but how? The media cheerleading fluff has been so pervasive that announcing retreat is impossible. But reality is forcing it and they got nothing, no solution.

    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, “paused” offensive (AP, that was a good one), million “dead Russians”, blabla…it is just therapy now.

    Time mag wouldn’t publish the article without permission. Maybe it is just a shout in the dark

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, “paused” offensive (AP, that was a good one
     
    No, but you lie about false predictions.

    I predicted about 50% chance of stalemate at current lines (plus/minus a few villages), or Ukraine taking back the Crimean corridor.

    It’s exactly as I predicted.

    Given the fact that Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment it had planned for the offensive in late spring (it has not lost them), and it had not lost significant ground (indeed it gained a little bit before stopping), “paused” rather than “lost” is the more accurate description. If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    Replies: @Beckow

  196. @Sean
    @A123

    The value is far greater than $100 billion because those weapons are not available on the open market at any price. However I think Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities. If Putin proved obdurate Trump might have actually given far more than Biden has, because Trump hates America being made to look stupid and ineffectual( he has never forgiven Iran for the hostage crisis hence his assassination of the Iranian general).

    Replies: @A123

    Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities

    Trump grasps a critical fact — How sides perceive issues influences their actions.

    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.

    Things were relatively quiet on this front during Trump’s 1st term. There was one-and-only-one moderate sized arms sale of $250-300 million. And, it was clearly about the “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth and related U.S. domestic considerations. Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy. And, Putin was proven correct as no additional transactions of this size occurred later in Trump’s 1st term. It was not a first step in changing foreign policy.

    There is every reason to believe that Trump’s administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.
     
    Wishful thinking on your part kremlinstoogeA123. In reality, Trump was outraged at the savagery that Russia was displaying in Ukraine and felt that American moral support for Ukraine was in order. Hear it yourself directly from his mouth:

    Donald Trump Says Ukrainians 'Use So Well' the Weapons He 'Gave' Them

    Trump on Wednesday told Maria Bartiromo, of Fox Business, that "Russia has gotten in deeper than they ever thought possible" because of "the weapons that I gave and that the Ukrainians used so well." The former Republican president's remarks are the latest in a series of conservative political and media figures swiveling from praising Russian President Vladimir Putin to backing Ukraine..."He's taking over a country, really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people and just walking right in," Trump said during the event at Mar-a-Lago. In January, Trump called possible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine a "European problem" in an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck... At the time, Ukraine was fighting Russian-backed separatists. The U.S. military aid was given to Ukraine. Last week, Trump issued a statement taking credit for strengthening NATO and getting military aid to Ukraine...


    "This is a holocaust," said Trump. "This is a horrible thing that's happening. You're witnessing it, and you see it on television every night."
     
    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-ukrainians-use-so-well-weapons-he-gave-them-1684356

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @Sean
    @A123


    There is every reason to believe that Trump’s administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.
     
    What led to the war is Ukraine and Russia are separate countries pursuing their own interests.

    Trump grasps a critical fact — How sides perceive issues influences their actions
     
    In business, Trump's success was due to a strategy of escalation 'Either you agree to be satisfied with less or the whole thing collapses and you get nothing at all". He is a master of double dealing and threats. A shark.


    Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy
     
    Foreign policy has primacy over domestic policy, the way the war in Vietnam was persisted with until America was almost coming apart politically showed this rather well. Trump could not have let Russia have a walkover in Ukraine even if he had wanted to, and him giving the weapons supplies was a fateful step because the US' prestige would be at stake were Russia to simply squash Ukraine while Washington did nothing. As well as doing things with major nuclear arms control agreement that Putin did not like, Trump demanded the counties of NATO spend very much more on armaments to deter or threaten Russia. Crucially he ordered the death of Soleimani, the idol of Iran, which shows Trump was unpredictable but in foreign policy the dramatic initiatives he made were always in a hawkish direction; he did not stand for America being made to look impotent, which Russia rolling across Ukraine proper most certainly would have.
  197. @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    The Crimean port is not strategic as long as Turkey is aligned with the West. How could it be, the Turkish straits can be closed to all traffic in a serious war scenario.

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn't seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    The people running the US government and military are mostly idiots. They should not be allowed to play nuclear standoff with Russia.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @John Johnson

    “How would it be a strategic port when their GDP decreased after acquiring it?”

    John “muh GDP” Johnson.

    “the people running the US government and military are mostly idiots.”

    I think they’re actually pretty clever, but perhaps too clever for their own good.

    “How do you fancy taking on the world’s manufacturing giant AND the world’s energy giant at the same time?”

    “Perhaps p*** off every Muslim in the world while we’re at it?”

    “Sounds like a plan”

  198. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    Would Obama really care about the Biden family's business connections in Ukraine to the extent that they would help him determine his Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe policy, though? I'm not sure that Obama actually cared that much about the finances of his VP's family, TBH, especially considering that his VP's family was relatively well-off after Obama's election as US President either way.


    The Obama administration was the most hostile towards Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) of any American administration. So if Burisma influencing Biden impacted the Obama administration’s policies towards Ukraine, it was in a pro-Russian direction.
     
    Makes one wonder why exactly the Obama administration didn't try to get the EU to cancel its Eastern Partnership program with various former USSR states if the Obama administration genuinely wanted to appease Russia. Or was this a line that even the Obama administration would not dare to cross, even if it failed to realize just how provocative Russia would actually find the Eastern Partnership due to it making it impossible for Russia to peacefully reintegrate any of its ex-USSR neighbors who will sign Association Agreements with the EU under the Eastern Partnership scheme (which in turn would make it impossible for Russia to regain the superpower status that it had lost back in 1991)?

    I suppose that an even more Russia-friendly Obama administration might have aggressively pressured the EU to cancel the Eastern Partnership program in exchange for Russia agreeing to end its military cooperation with China and promising in writing to wage a total trade embargo against China if China will ever attack Taiwan, similar to what the US did to Japan in 1941 several months before Pearl Harbor when Japan attacked French Indochina. But frankly, I'm skeptical that Russia would have actually agreed to such a deal even back in the 2009-2014 time period due to it likely believing that it should not sacrifice its relations with China (a huge country and trading/strategic partner with over a billion people) for the sake of US or Taiwanese interests.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Would Obama really care about the Biden family’s business connections in Ukraine to the extent that they would help him determine his Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe policy, though?

    I actually doubt Obama was involved.

    Obama did not like Biden and could find a better way to make a million dollars. Obama also knew that Biden wanted to be president which means any type of scam could be a trap.

    Burisma smells of Biden running pay to play scams on foreign companies. Then he goes to Obama and depicts the deal as good for the US. Yea boss we talked it over and they changed their mind.

  199. German_reader says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    From this: https://www.moonofalabama.org/17i/z1-ss.jpg

    to this

    https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/


    “We’re not moving forward,” says one of Zelensky’s close aides. Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”

    When I raised these claims with a senior military officer, he said that some commanders have little choice in second-guessing orders from the top. At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”

    In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”
     

    It's almost like there's a thing called maths, and that all being equal a country with x potential soldiers will lose to a country with 4x potential soldiers.

    Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”
     
    Still, at least the clampdown on corruption will free up resources?

    Amid all the pressure to root out corruption, I assumed, perhaps naively, that officials in Ukraine would think twice before taking a bribe or pocketing state funds. But when I made this point to a top presidential adviser in early October, he asked me to turn off my audio recorder so he could speak more freely. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” he says. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”
     
    But the indomitable spirit of the nation?

    ... his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace.
    On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.
     
    Only one thing worries me. The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they're losing?

    Replies: @Beckow, @German_reader

    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?

    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine’s offensive was so bad it can’t be denied anymore.
    I don’t regard this is a positive development btw, despite my frequent criticisms of Ukraine. If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking, and with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @German_reader


    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine’s offensive was so bad it can’t be denied anymore.

    If things are going so poorly for Ukraine then why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoigu-beijing-ukraine-peace-talks-1839149

    Putin is trying to walk with a slice of Donbas which means:
    1. He doesn't intend to take Kiev
    2. He can't win the war based on his own goals
    3. He wants to lose with a consolation prize

    Putin's Western fans should really re-consider their relationship to him. As with the abused girlfriend they aren't the first piece of ass on the list.

    Putin cares about his image in Russia and his Totalitarian TV Network will back whatever bullshit he wants to push on the public. This means he may cut a deal with the West that disappoints his fans but his little Russians back home will believe it as some kind of win. This is in fact what Saddam did after the Iraq-Iran war. He just declared victory on State TV even though it didn't make sense. No one in Iraq was going to disagree.

    Replies: @A123

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    "If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking"

    I could see Russia politely asking Poland to please get rid of the American missile systems pointed at them (Aegis?) but I really don't think Russia want to send divisions anywhere near Germany. I think they want what they said they wanted in 2007 i.e. not to be threatened by NATO expansion.

    "with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then"

    Maybe I'm an incurable optimist, but I really think another winter with expensive US gas and manufacturing decline will concentrate their minds wonderfully. But we don't know, it could be another mild winter like last year when the ground (and Europeans) didn't freeze.

    I may be wrong, as the German Greens are a wholly owned subsidiary of the US State Department so you never know what new foolishness Ms Bareback might get up to.

  200. @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    The Crimean port is not strategic as long as Turkey is aligned with the West. How could it be, the Turkish straits can be closed to all traffic in a serious war scenario.

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn't seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    The people running the US government and military are mostly idiots. They should not be allowed to play nuclear standoff with Russia.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon, @John Johnson

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    That doesn’t make any sense.

    There are military bases in the Baltics which are closer to Moscow.

    Is the message:
    1. The Baltics are backed by the West and you cannot invade them for the nth time
    2. We plan on destroying Russian society

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn’t seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    Yes and a great reason for Russia to return to its 2021 borders.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Crimea is important to Russian credibility as a nation and a government so this is about sovereignty. The West has been trying to destroy this credibility for hundreds of years and nearly succeeded with the Bolsheviks. The obvious pressure is economic and cultural, but the important military pressure is part of a 'hybrid war'. Unfortunately this hybrid war against a heavily nuclear-armed adversary is just crazy. Whatever the stupid Western leaders want to do with Russia they need to accomplish non-militarily. This failed so they hope to do it militarily.

    The West doesn't understand the risks or the stakes involved in the Ukraine project. I wonder if we are closing in on the point where Russia will be pressured to use nuclear weapons preemptively, consequences be dammed, to send a clear signal. The message will not be, "Hey let's blow everything up and get everyone killed." The point will be, "The West is pressing Russia to the point of full scale nuclear war. Apparently the Westerners are too stupid to realize this or have some messianic belief that they can win by bluffing. So we (Russia) need to show them what they are dealing with. If we do not act now, at some point soon, it may be too late."

    Western activities such as blowing up Nordstream, supporting military murders of Russian citizens in Russia, participating in bombing Moscow with drones are HUGE provocations. These are part of a Western-sponsored campaign against Russia in Ukraine and other Russian border countries. The expansion of NATO is a huge foundation for this work. Dropping out of nuclear arms control treaties is a fundamentally stupid message from the West -- like some thug shouting "We plan to kick your ass." Then the West sponsored drone attacks against Engels Air Base which is a major base of nuclear-armed bombers.

    We can argue about the various details and particulars, but the pattern is clear. Maybe Unz readers cannot see it, but the Russian military and diplomatic leadership surely recognize the pattern and its implications for Russia. Apparently the Western planners assumed Russia was too weak to withstand all of the pressure. This is the stupidest aspect of the whole thing because it is backwards. If Russia is weak she is more likely to use nuclear weapons to defend herself. Fortunately Russia is much stronger than mainstream observers realized which bought time to see the errors of our ways and back off.

    Replies: @Sean

  201. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine's offensive was so bad it can't be denied anymore.
    I don't regard this is a positive development btw, despite my frequent criticisms of Ukraine. If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking, and with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @YetAnotherAnon

    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?

    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine’s offensive was so bad it can’t be denied anymore.

    If things are going so poorly for Ukraine then why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoigu-beijing-ukraine-peace-talks-1839149

    Putin is trying to walk with a slice of Donbas which means:
    1. He doesn’t intend to take Kiev
    2. He can’t win the war based on his own goals
    3. He wants to lose with a consolation prize

    Putin’s Western fans should really re-consider their relationship to him. As with the abused girlfriend they aren’t the first piece of ass on the list.

    Putin cares about his image in Russia and his Totalitarian TV Network will back whatever bullshit he wants to push on the public. This means he may cut a deal with the West that disappoints his fans but his little Russians back home will believe it as some kind of win. This is in fact what Saddam did after the Iraq-Iran war. He just declared victory on State TV even though it didn’t make sense. No one in Iraq was going to disagree.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    He has a sound pivot available. Freezing the current lines does not give Russia everything in the publicly announced pre-SMO package. However, there are huge offsetting gains that were not in that list. Notably:

    • Full land bridge to protect Crimea
    • Access to the Dnieper as a fresh water supply
    • ZNPP to run industrial development

    A deal is very workable. Some additional components would include -- Keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and limiting future military build up that would threaten Russian citizens in Crimea. The informal link between NATO and EU is broken, so an EU bid can proceed for a non-NATO Ukraine.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith. Eventually financial considerations should push EU/Zelensky towards rationality, but there is no obvious timing for that evolution.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Mikhail

  202. @A123
    @Sean


    Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities
     
    Trump grasps a critical fact -- How sides perceive issues influences their actions.

    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.

    Things were relatively quiet on this front during Trump's 1st term. There was one-and-only-one moderate sized arms sale of $250-300 million. And, it was clearly about the "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth and related U.S. domestic considerations. Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy. And, Putin was proven correct as no additional transactions of this size occurred later in Trump's 1st term. It was not a first step in changing foreign policy.

    There is every reason to believe that Trump's administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean

    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.

    Wishful thinking on your part kremlinstoogeA123. In reality, Trump was outraged at the savagery that Russia was displaying in Ukraine and felt that American moral support for Ukraine was in order. Hear it yourself directly from his mouth:

    Donald Trump Says Ukrainians ‘Use So Well’ the Weapons He ‘Gave’ Them

    Trump on Wednesday told Maria Bartiromo, of Fox Business, that “Russia has gotten in deeper than they ever thought possible” because of “the weapons that I gave and that the Ukrainians used so well.” The former Republican president’s remarks are the latest in a series of conservative political and media figures swiveling from praising Russian President Vladimir Putin to backing Ukraine…”He’s taking over a country, really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people and just walking right in,” Trump said during the event at Mar-a-Lago. In January, Trump called possible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine a “European problem” in an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck… At the time, Ukraine was fighting Russian-backed separatists. The U.S. military aid was given to Ukraine. Last week, Trump issued a statement taking credit for strengthening NATO and getting military aid to Ukraine…

    “This is a holocaust,” said Trump. “This is a horrible thing that’s happening. You’re witnessing it, and you see it on television every night.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-ukrainians-use-so-well-weapons-he-gave-them-1684356

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump talks a lot. He is intentionally ambiguous allowing people to read whatever they wish into what he says. Often the second half of his sentence contradicts the beginning.

    He is also running for president. That means that some loyalty to the current foreign policies is required. It doesn't matter much who is elected because by then it will be effectively over. But changing leaders allows accepting reality - Biden simply can't, he is in too deep. Any new president will have the option of recognizing the reality on the ground and blaming Biden.

    In the last few months the military and strategic situation for Ukraine has dramatically worsened. The Gaza war is definitely not helping. I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    I don't see a scenario where Kiev (really Nato) could win - at this point they are trying to force a stalemate. Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted. So what is the endgame for Kiev? Blow it all up and emigrate?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @John Johnson, @Mr. Hack

  203. @Beckow
    @YetAnotherAnon


    ...The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    Maybe it is belated cya...the article to point to and claim the media wasn't completely delusional.

    This will be hard. A large group of privileged Westerners in government, media, academia lived for years in a happy world where all their wishes were possible, even inevitable. The enemies were evil dwarfs to burn by superior force. The followers losing touch with reality couldn't wait for the next installment.

    All moral constraints were discarded because of "we are virtuous, we have values, so shut up!" - a narcissistic tautology slowly turning into a dead end. Time to retreat, but how? The media cheerleading fluff has been so pervasive that announcing retreat is impossible. But reality is forcing it and they got nothing, no solution.

    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, "paused" offensive (AP, that was a good one), million "dead Russians", blabla...it is just therapy now.

    Time mag wouldn't publish the article without permission. Maybe it is just a shout in the dark

    Replies: @AP

    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, “paused” offensive (AP, that was a good one

    No, but you lie about false predictions.

    I predicted about 50% chance of stalemate at current lines (plus/minus a few villages), or Ukraine taking back the Crimean corridor.

    It’s exactly as I predicted.

    Given the fact that Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment it had planned for the offensive in late spring (it has not lost them), and it had not lost significant ground (indeed it gained a little bit before stopping), “paused” rather than “lost” is the more accurate description. If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    ...If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.
     
    How about "failed"? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term "paused", how long do we wait?

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment
     
    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses. Is that a "majority"? Enough retention? Well, it would depend on the baseline. The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old. So Kiev is clearly short of both men and weapons - that would not be the case if they had retained enough.

    By the way, predictions of "50% chance" are equivalent to saying "I don't know". That's what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction....)

    Replies: @AP

  204. @AP
    @Beckow


    The assorted local cheerleaders will of course lie about their totally false predictions, their optimism, “paused” offensive (AP, that was a good one
     
    No, but you lie about false predictions.

    I predicted about 50% chance of stalemate at current lines (plus/minus a few villages), or Ukraine taking back the Crimean corridor.

    It’s exactly as I predicted.

    Given the fact that Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment it had planned for the offensive in late spring (it has not lost them), and it had not lost significant ground (indeed it gained a little bit before stopping), “paused” rather than “lost” is the more accurate description. If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    How about “failed”? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term “paused”, how long do we wait?

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment

    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses. Is that a “majority”? Enough retention? Well, it would depend on the baseline. The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old. So Kiev is clearly short of both men and weapons – that would not be the case if they had retained enough.

    By the way, predictions of “50% chance” are equivalent to saying “I don’t know“. That’s what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction….)

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    How about “failed”? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term “paused”, how long do we wait?
     
    To fail you have to try. To try means that they used their military. They have only used a fraction of it. Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected. They may try again if they degrade the Russians sufficiently over time, or may not if they don’t. In that case the offensive will have been aborted.

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment


    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses

     

    They lost at most 30% of their equipment slated for the offensive and have kept 70% of it (some of those losses can be restored). So they only used a fraction.

    The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old
     
    Ukraine has deliberately been trying to avoid drafting young men who can still produce children (plenty of such men have volunteered of purse and they aren’t turned away) in order to not make the coming demographic crisis worse. People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target. An average draft age of 24 would be really bad.

    By the way, predictions of “50% chance” are equivalent to saying “I don’t know“. That’s what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction

     

    But you did call it a prediction.

    And actually it was a prediction. It was a prediction that Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory. A lot of our pro-Russians, and people like Scott Ritter, predicted that Ukraine would either collapse or would lose major areas such as Kharkiv.

    I predicted either stalemate or liberation of the Crimean corridor, about 50% of each one happening. I also predicted that Ukraine would not take Donbas.

    One thing I did not predict (and did not think about to tbh) is that Ukraine would rob Russia of its supremacy over the western Black Sea and would open a shipping corridor from Odessa thanks to its numerous successful strikes on Crimea and capture of that oil platform. This was an unexpected Ukrainian victory.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Mr. XYZ

  205. @LatW
    @German_reader

    Good to see such a transparent doc (even if it's just a guidance document). Not sure Israel can pull this off, the Jews are no longer at the height of their power the way they used to be during the Bush era.

    Well, this is what I was alluding to when I said expulsions have been normalized.

    Interesting that they use "de-Nazification" as a real term.

    This part is so entitled that it is hilariously funny:


    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren't so insane and crazy and if it wasn't for all the deaths there.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @A123

    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.

    This would be funny if it weren’t so insane and crazy and if it wasn’t for all the deaths there.

    This part is an accurate reflection of physical realty. “Iranian Hamas unilaterally lost the land” by destroying the fresh water aquifer for Gaza. The aquifer cannot be fixed. Desalinization is unaffordably expensive, energy intensive, and fragile should facilities be used to launch terror rockets.

    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging “assistance of your Muslim brothers” to relocate is conceptually sound.

    Not sure Israel can pull this off

    This really is, “Can the international community as a whole pull this off?”

    Short-term / Now, while emotions are high, clearly not. Expulsions will not work. Sending people to an area with no infrastructure will not work. Muslim colonists stuck in Gaza will remain there for a while longer.

    Long-term / What will the reconstruction look like? Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad. However, the problem remains essentially unsolvable. How can 2.5MM live on surface water that can support only a fraction of that?

    Creating a New Muslim Palestine with the “assistance of your Muslim brothers” is a viable option. Helping people relocate to viable Muslim religious lands that have sufficient water resources is a valid option. I previously suggested VOLUNTARY departures out of Gaza would occur if there was a place to go.

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.

    Off loading them on the West seems less than serious. Presumably, this is intended as the proverbial “warning shot across the bow” to nations that are spending money to make the situation worse. Illegal EU backed construction in Area C is an example of such provocation.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @LatW
    @A123


    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging “assistance of your Muslim brothers” to relocate is conceptually sound.
     
    I do agree that they are largely responsible for this mess. They need to help clean it up as opposed to wailing for Europe and the West to do it, things have changed now. We live in a different world. Sure, the Pali children should be helped but Hamas leaders / owners / backers knew what they were doing.

    And, by the way, some of them appear to be pathetic mercenaries and not even ideological - in that recent interrogation footage one of them is saying that they were promised 10K and a new apartment for doing the raid. Pathetic!


    This really is, “Can the international community as a whole pull this off?”
     
    Er... no. There is no obligation for the international community to commit to such a "resettlement" plan. There could be a peace conference eventually, but right now there is a humanitarian catastrophe. Israel is not entitled to us hosting their Arabs. However, Israel should receive some help, since they were attacked so savagely. Well, first there is going to be a war anyway.

    Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad.
     
    If Hamas are their version of ethno-religious nationalists, then they may be impossible to eradicate. that's like saying "Ukraine should be de-Nazified".

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.
     
    Well, what percentage of Palis really wanted to move voluntarily, as you say (prior to the war). How many Palis wanted to move to Arab states? The issue here is the rigidity of the Arab states to accept them.

    By the way, is Netanyahu truly prepared for this? Can he lead such a huge war while being somewhat unpopular? That's a risk factor (unless he turns around and shows incredible boldness, engagement with the population, resolve and stamina). He doesn't appear to be like Zelensky was around whom everyone rallied. The Israeli morale seems good (even if they're still in shock), but not due to Netanyahu.

    They need to show strength and resolve and the readiness to go far, otherwise they won't be taken seriously, won't be respected which will invite more aggression against them eventually. This is the problem.

    Replies: @LatW

  206. @Beckow
    @Mr. XYZ


    ...war really isn’t existential at all for Russia other than perhaps in Russians’ own imaginations
     
    Really? Let's play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed, Russian bases in Crimea become Nato bases, Kiev after cleansing the territories of Russians turns Ukraine into a heavily armed anti-Russian Nato state. At any point in the next few decades if Russia goes through internal problems (they often do), Nato will be ready to pounce, threaten and blackmail.

    Yeah, some of it is imagination. But big countries are paranoid for a reason - try to imagine a similar scenario for US with Canada or Mexico, or UK with Ireland. But of course, you don't use the same logic when it comes to you. Predictably.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    Really? Let’s play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed

    Russia has already killed 10,000s of Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine. (UN counted around 10,000 but states the actual number is much higher, Mariupol deaths haven’t been counted).

    I’ve never heard Ukrainians in real life wanting to expel millions of people from Eastern Ukraine. This is something one sees online.

    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).

    As a Slovak you demonstrate that you don’t care about 100,000s of dead Eastern Slavs. Maybe it’s some Magyar heritage? Your people eagerly joined Hitler on his crusade, and you are a fan of Stalin, who has worse things to say about his Baltic, Ukrainian and Polish victims than about him. And so you defend as “necessary” Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP


    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).

    As a Slovak you demonstrate that you don’t care about 100,000s of dead Eastern Slavs. Maybe it’s some Magyar heritage? Your people eagerly joined Hitler on his crusade, and you are a fan of Stalin, who has worse things to say about his Baltic, Ukrainian and Polish victims than about him. And so you defend as “necessary” Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
     
    Svido ethnic cleansing advocacy.

    "Your people" (Galician SS) participated in the crushing of the Slovak rebellion against the pro-Nazi Slovak regime headed by a Roman Catholic cleric.

    Ukraine would've been better off if the 2014 power sharing agreement was honored. The next mistake wasn't adhering to the Minsk Accords which would've kept Donbass in Ukraine, with that former Soviet republic maintaining its already stated neutrality.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/22102023-answering-biden-on-russia-ukraine-and-israel-palestine-oped/

    Excerpt -

    Armed conflicts led to the post-WW II breakup of Yugoslavia, the creation of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh (among other countries) in their present form. The world at large accepts the idea of a two-state solution regarding Israelis and Palestinians. Likewise, the Russia-Kiev regime dispute reveals the viable option for territorial change and a changed security arrangement concerning Russia and the collective West.

    The territory encompassing the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic brought together people with different historical, cultural, religious and linguistic preferences. In order for this dynamic to properly function as an independent state, a fine balance is required.

    Russia and the pro-Russian element in Ukraine’s Soviet drawn boundary accepted an independent Ukraine within its Communist drawn boundary, as long as it at least remained neutral and on good terms with Russia, in conjunction with respecting the pro-Russian sentiment in that former Soviet republic. When anti-Russian elements in Ukraine gained control via coup like circumstances in 2014, the pro-Russian side rebelled with the support and sympathy of the Russophile community elsewhere.

    Within its Communist drawn boundary, post-Soviet Ukraine had a lengthy period of time to develop into a nation which respected those having a pro-Russian orientation. Numerous instances reveal that the reverse occurred after 2014, with some disturbing trends evident beforehand.

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the war in the former Ukrainian SSR began years before the start of Russia’s February 24, 2022 Special Military Operation – something that Donbass residents are especially aware of. Stoltenberg added that the Kiev regime was receiving arms and training from some NATO countries for several years prior to 2022.

    Biden’s insistence on continuing a failed proxy war against Russia prolongs an agony which has been especially hurtful to Ukraine and the economy of Western nations. In comparison, the Russian economy has prevailed with Putin standing a good chance to hold high office after Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Olaf Scholz, Emanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak and Volodymyr Zelensky have been replaced.

    Recall the efforts to remove Bashar Assad, Alexander Lukashenko and Nicholas Maduro. Of that grouping, Putin appears to be in a much stronger position.

    Biden’s foreign policy adventurism takes away from substantively dealing with pressing socioeconomic issues in the US. Throughout America, elected officials stress the need for more funding to improve the well-being of a population facing greater challenges.

     

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).
     
    Did they advocate the same approach towards Crimea as well?
  207. @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.
     
    Wishful thinking on your part kremlinstoogeA123. In reality, Trump was outraged at the savagery that Russia was displaying in Ukraine and felt that American moral support for Ukraine was in order. Hear it yourself directly from his mouth:

    Donald Trump Says Ukrainians 'Use So Well' the Weapons He 'Gave' Them

    Trump on Wednesday told Maria Bartiromo, of Fox Business, that "Russia has gotten in deeper than they ever thought possible" because of "the weapons that I gave and that the Ukrainians used so well." The former Republican president's remarks are the latest in a series of conservative political and media figures swiveling from praising Russian President Vladimir Putin to backing Ukraine..."He's taking over a country, really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people and just walking right in," Trump said during the event at Mar-a-Lago. In January, Trump called possible military conflict between Russia and Ukraine a "European problem" in an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck... At the time, Ukraine was fighting Russian-backed separatists. The U.S. military aid was given to Ukraine. Last week, Trump issued a statement taking credit for strengthening NATO and getting military aid to Ukraine...


    "This is a holocaust," said Trump. "This is a horrible thing that's happening. You're witnessing it, and you see it on television every night."
     
    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-ukrainians-use-so-well-weapons-he-gave-them-1684356

    Replies: @Beckow

    Trump talks a lot. He is intentionally ambiguous allowing people to read whatever they wish into what he says. Often the second half of his sentence contradicts the beginning.

    He is also running for president. That means that some loyalty to the current foreign policies is required. It doesn’t matter much who is elected because by then it will be effectively over. But changing leaders allows accepting reality – Biden simply can’t, he is in too deep. Any new president will have the option of recognizing the reality on the ground and blaming Biden.

    In the last few months the military and strategic situation for Ukraine has dramatically worsened. The Gaza war is definitely not helping. I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    I don’t see a scenario where Kiev (really Nato) could win – at this point they are trying to force a stalemate. Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted. So what is the endgame for Kiev? Blow it all up and emigrate?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.
     
    China is already on the side of US. Here's a list of only the largest US corporations owned by China:

    1. General Electric (GE)
    2. AMC Theatres
    3. Smithfield Foods
    4. Legendary Entertainment Group
    5. The Waldorf-Astoria
    6. Strategic Hotels & Resorts.
    7. Riot Games
    8. Sheraton Universal Hotel, Marriott Downtown Los Angeles
    9. Ingram Micro
    10.IBM

    Soon China, with US help, will be able to buy up land in the Russian Far East at bargain basement prices (they've already have bought up a lot of US farmland, but it's just too expensive). Remember, from the very beginning of this conflict, I predicted that China would end up as being the big winner.

    , @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    Putin just offered to walk with the 4 oblasts that fake voted to join Russia. Of course he also wants Crimea.

    You clearly have too much faith in Putin. He supposedly recently had a heart attack and clearly wants it to end. Your fantasies of him killing even more Ukrainians and Russians to stab at Western windmills are now less likely. Some Russian telegram channels are claiming he is dead and the body double has taken over for a Kremlin coalition.

    Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted.

    Have more Donbas ethic Russians died in this war or from 2014-2021?

    Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front. They clearly don't view them as ethnic kin. At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons. Putin didn't even bother to give them AK-47s.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Beckow


    He is intentionally ambiguous allowing people to read whatever they wish into what he says. Often the second half of his sentence contradicts the beginning.
     
    Nothing at all ambiguous, nor any contradictions in what he stated at the end of the sentence here. Just plain old truth spewing from his gut that most people in the US (and the world) can identify with and understand.
  208. @Ivashka the fool
    @Sher Singh

    I think what is important in this discussion, is to recognize that the ancestors of those people who have become Christians or Muslims have had their own valid religious beliefs. That they had a well established spiritual view of the World that they carried for thousands of years.

    Tomorrow night is the night of Samhain. It is one of the eight main yearly holidays of the European pagan past, probably going back all the way to the Unetice Culture. Today it has devolved into Halloween - disguises, candies, tricks or treats.

    But it was something else back then, it was the time when Nature died, preparing to be buried under the snows and be reborn in the spring. An eternal cycle of life and death, a spiral going both up and down for those who have eyes to see. Samhain was the time when the doors of Death open and let the spirits pass over.

    Just like everything in this natural realm of ours, races and nations are born, live and die. They have their dreams and their disappointments, just like any human has. The great dream of the White Race was to completely master natural phenomena and turn them into the servants of mankind. The great disappointment would be understanding that there can be no complete mastering of nature for those who are not completely masters of themselves.

    https://youtu.be/UJE9Ks3BBMM?feature=shared

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Cheer up.

    • Thanks: Ivashka the fool
  209. @Beckow
    @AP


    ...If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.
     
    How about "failed"? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term "paused", how long do we wait?

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment
     
    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses. Is that a "majority"? Enough retention? Well, it would depend on the baseline. The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old. So Kiev is clearly short of both men and weapons - that would not be the case if they had retained enough.

    By the way, predictions of "50% chance" are equivalent to saying "I don't know". That's what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction....)

    Replies: @AP

    If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    How about “failed”? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term “paused”, how long do we wait?

    To fail you have to try. To try means that they used their military. They have only used a fraction of it. Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected. They may try again if they degrade the Russians sufficiently over time, or may not if they don’t. In that case the offensive will have been aborted.

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment

    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses

    They lost at most 30% of their equipment slated for the offensive and have kept 70% of it (some of those losses can be restored). So they only used a fraction.

    The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old

    Ukraine has deliberately been trying to avoid drafting young men who can still produce children (plenty of such men have volunteered of purse and they aren’t turned away) in order to not make the coming demographic crisis worse. People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target. An average draft age of 24 would be really bad.

    By the way, predictions of “50% chance” are equivalent to saying “I don’t know“. That’s what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction

    But you did call it a prediction.

    And actually it was a prediction. It was a prediction that Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory. A lot of our pro-Russians, and people like Scott Ritter, predicted that Ukraine would either collapse or would lose major areas such as Kharkiv.

    I predicted either stalemate or liberation of the Crimean corridor, about 50% of each one happening. I also predicted that Ukraine would not take Donbas.

    One thing I did not predict (and did not think about to tbh) is that Ukraine would rob Russia of its supremacy over the western Black Sea and would open a shipping corridor from Odessa thanks to its numerous successful strikes on Crimea and capture of that oil platform. This was an unexpected Ukrainian victory.

    • Thanks: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP


    Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected.
     
    That's true about military who are slightly smarter - but Zelko and his Western sponsors wanted to go full enchilada, consequences be damned. (What is it about these short weirdos that they crave killing as many people as possible?)

    People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target.
     
    What is this? A deliberate orphan-and-widows creation policy? They didn't think it through. That demo is also key to a productive economy. Who will come to replace them?

    Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory.
     
    Ukraine is held up with massive foreign aid that is mathematically unsustainable. If they achieve a stalemate they would be in a tough situation of having to receive 25%-35% of the GNP in foreign aid - most of it loans that theoretically have to be paid back. Russia controls 23% of Ukraine and the dominance of Western Black Sea that you claim is by definition fleeting - Russia can mop them up at their leisure.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Sean
    @AP

    Ukraine won with some inspired offensives, but failed to make good on its advantage by following up last year's string of major successes to keep Russia off balance (this analysis is generally accepted in Ukraine now). Russia has looked all over the place but although difficult to understand how it can be, what Russia is doing is still quite effective. Ukraine is Mike Tyson with clean power shots while the reality (not official doctrine) of Russia's way of war resembles Tyson Fury is a slapping windmill alternating with grappling opponents round the neck and collapsing on them like a two ton blancmange (Ali did something similar). Thw Wagner style of attack in Bakhmut his being used again in Adividika!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6eUQ1Qs9o8

    Another similarity is feints and a particular type of stamina, Mike Tyson never used them, Tyson Fury feints more than he punches, and through decades of training built a great ability to self recharge between rounds, thereby getting comparatively stronger the longer the bout goes on. Although it lacks the the ability to knock Ukraine out of the war, Russia's size, propinquity and unwillingness to quit makes a gradual gaining of the upper hand by Russian forces quite likely. There is no way Ukraine can keep Russia out; even if it was (for the sake of argument) driven out of Ukraine, why on earth would Russia (under the current or any future leader) sign a peace treaty recognizing that as a final settlement of the border?

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    Ukraine has deliberately been trying to avoid drafting young men who can still produce children (plenty of such men have volunteered of purse and they aren’t turned away) in order to not make the coming demographic crisis worse. People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target. An average draft age of 24 would be really bad.
     
    Would men in their 30s and 40s without any children not be given priority for the draft?

    Replies: @John Johnson

  210. @John Johnson
    @German_reader


    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine’s offensive was so bad it can’t be denied anymore.

    If things are going so poorly for Ukraine then why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
    https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shoigu-beijing-ukraine-peace-talks-1839149

    Putin is trying to walk with a slice of Donbas which means:
    1. He doesn't intend to take Kiev
    2. He can't win the war based on his own goals
    3. He wants to lose with a consolation prize

    Putin's Western fans should really re-consider their relationship to him. As with the abused girlfriend they aren't the first piece of ass on the list.

    Putin cares about his image in Russia and his Totalitarian TV Network will back whatever bullshit he wants to push on the public. This means he may cut a deal with the West that disappoints his fans but his little Russians back home will believe it as some kind of win. This is in fact what Saddam did after the Iraq-Iran war. He just declared victory on State TV even though it didn't make sense. No one in Iraq was going to disagree.

    Replies: @A123

    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?

    Why would he not?

    He has a sound pivot available. Freezing the current lines does not give Russia everything in the publicly announced pre-SMO package. However, there are huge offsetting gains that were not in that list. Notably:

    • Full land bridge to protect Crimea
    • Access to the Dnieper as a fresh water supply
    • ZNPP to run industrial development

    A deal is very workable. Some additional components would include — Keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and limiting future military build up that would threaten Russian citizens in Crimea. The informal link between NATO and EU is broken, so an EU bid can proceed for a non-NATO Ukraine.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith. Eventually financial considerations should push EU/Zelensky towards rationality, but there is no obvious timing for that evolution.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    It was directed at @German_reader who believes they are losing.

    They aren't losing if the world's second largest military was pushed backed and is now negotiating for less than 20% of the country. Trying to take the 4 oblasts is a starting point. Zaporizhzhia was never pro-Russian. They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election. Of course Putin will not suggest UN monitored elections. He is hoping to "compromise" and take just former LPR/DPR with Crimea while giving up the Zap to show good faith.

    I've said many times that he will most likely try to walk with Donbas and Crimea. I said that a year ago. It his fans that talk of returning to Kiev or using tactical nukes before accepting that outcome. MacGregor for over a year told us that Ukraine will fall and it will all be Russian. He said there is no possible way that Ukraine will exist. Same for Ritter. The very pro-Putin MoonOfAlabama has daily discussions on how Ukraine will collapse and Putin will be the dwarf hero triumphant.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith.

    How is Zelensky a puppet when the majority of Ukrainians support his policies? How is he not serving the will of the people? Polls show that they support the war. Putin's offer to take Donbas shows that the pro-Putin bloggers were just plain wrong. If Russia had unlimited men/ammo/willpower then Putin wouldn't offer anything. He would wait and then launch a major counter-offensive to take it all.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader

    , @Mikhail
    @A123

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/11112022-checking-recent-western-establishment-russia-ukraine-narratives-oped/

    Excerpt -


    Katz’s proposal is essentially what I advocated on March 11. Months later and tens of thousands of dead, Katz reaches the same settlement. A good deal has changed since then, leading me to an April 4 revision, which sees the Kiev regime losing more territory, in addition to its earlier loss of Crimea.

    In September, Russia declared that Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhe are part of the Russian Federation. To go back on that declaration will be a severe blow to that country’s standing.

    There’s nevertheless room to possibly secure a settlement, where the Kiev regime wouldn’t completely lose all of the territory recently proclaimed as Russian. In turn, Russia would be able to maintain in name these territories, with the other parts staying in Ukraine. For now, neither side appears so willing to consider this scenario.
     
    Sanctions like the hypocritically bigoted one in sports would've to end as well. The upcoming Paris Summer Olympics are so far shaping out to be a politicized zoo run by EU/NATO misfits.
  211. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump talks a lot. He is intentionally ambiguous allowing people to read whatever they wish into what he says. Often the second half of his sentence contradicts the beginning.

    He is also running for president. That means that some loyalty to the current foreign policies is required. It doesn't matter much who is elected because by then it will be effectively over. But changing leaders allows accepting reality - Biden simply can't, he is in too deep. Any new president will have the option of recognizing the reality on the ground and blaming Biden.

    In the last few months the military and strategic situation for Ukraine has dramatically worsened. The Gaza war is definitely not helping. I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    I don't see a scenario where Kiev (really Nato) could win - at this point they are trying to force a stalemate. Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted. So what is the endgame for Kiev? Blow it all up and emigrate?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @John Johnson, @Mr. Hack

    the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    China is already on the side of US. Here’s a list of only the largest US corporations owned by China:

    1. General Electric (GE)
    2. AMC Theatres
    3. Smithfield Foods
    4. Legendary Entertainment Group
    5. The Waldorf-Astoria
    6. Strategic Hotels & Resorts.
    7. Riot Games
    8. Sheraton Universal Hotel, Marriott Downtown Los Angeles
    9. Ingram Micro
    10.IBM

    Soon China, with US help, will be able to buy up land in the Russian Far East at bargain basement prices (they’ve already have bought up a lot of US farmland, but it’s just too expensive). Remember, from the very beginning of this conflict, I predicted that China would end up as being the big winner.

    • LOL: YetAnotherAnon
  212. @Beckow
    @Mr. Hack

    Trump talks a lot. He is intentionally ambiguous allowing people to read whatever they wish into what he says. Often the second half of his sentence contradicts the beginning.

    He is also running for president. That means that some loyalty to the current foreign policies is required. It doesn't matter much who is elected because by then it will be effectively over. But changing leaders allows accepting reality - Biden simply can't, he is in too deep. Any new president will have the option of recognizing the reality on the ground and blaming Biden.

    In the last few months the military and strategic situation for Ukraine has dramatically worsened. The Gaza war is definitely not helping. I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    I don't see a scenario where Kiev (really Nato) could win - at this point they are trying to force a stalemate. Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted. So what is the endgame for Kiev? Blow it all up and emigrate?

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @John Johnson, @Mr. Hack

    I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    Putin just offered to walk with the 4 oblasts that fake voted to join Russia. Of course he also wants Crimea.

    You clearly have too much faith in Putin. He supposedly recently had a heart attack and clearly wants it to end. Your fantasies of him killing even more Ukrainians and Russians to stab at Western windmills are now less likely. Some Russian telegram channels are claiming he is dead and the body double has taken over for a Kremlin coalition.

    Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted.

    Have more Donbas ethic Russians died in this war or from 2014-2021?

    Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front. They clearly don’t view them as ethnic kin. At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons. Putin didn’t even bother to give them AK-47s.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @John Johnson

    "Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front."

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    "At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons."

    Don't forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    Replies: @John Johnson

  213. @A123
    @John Johnson


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    He has a sound pivot available. Freezing the current lines does not give Russia everything in the publicly announced pre-SMO package. However, there are huge offsetting gains that were not in that list. Notably:

    • Full land bridge to protect Crimea
    • Access to the Dnieper as a fresh water supply
    • ZNPP to run industrial development

    A deal is very workable. Some additional components would include -- Keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and limiting future military build up that would threaten Russian citizens in Crimea. The informal link between NATO and EU is broken, so an EU bid can proceed for a non-NATO Ukraine.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith. Eventually financial considerations should push EU/Zelensky towards rationality, but there is no obvious timing for that evolution.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Mikhail

    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?

    Why would he not?

    It was directed at who believes they are losing.

    They aren’t losing if the world’s second largest military was pushed backed and is now negotiating for less than 20% of the country. Trying to take the 4 oblasts is a starting point. Zaporizhzhia was never pro-Russian. They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election. Of course Putin will not suggest UN monitored elections. He is hoping to “compromise” and take just former LPR/DPR with Crimea while giving up the Zap to show good faith.

    I’ve said many times that he will most likely try to walk with Donbas and Crimea. I said that a year ago. It his fans that talk of returning to Kiev or using tactical nukes before accepting that outcome. MacGregor for over a year told us that Ukraine will fall and it will all be Russian. He said there is no possible way that Ukraine will exist. Same for Ritter. The very pro-Putin MoonOfAlabama has daily discussions on how Ukraine will collapse and Putin will be the dwarf hero triumphant.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith.

    How is Zelensky a puppet when the majority of Ukrainians support his policies? How is he not serving the will of the people? Polls show that they support the war. Putin’s offer to take Donbas shows that the pro-Putin bloggers were just plain wrong. If Russia had unlimited men/ammo/willpower then Putin wouldn’t offer anything. He would wait and then launch a major counter-offensive to take it all.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson

    I have said many times that Putin can accept the current lines. He will offer land further north to keep vital Russian strategic interests such as a fresh water supply for Crimea. Using the Dnieper as part of the new permanent border is wise at it keeps the sides separated.

    The UN is a laughable body that needs to be abolished. No one even vaguely serious would propose or accept "UN monitored elections".

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @German_reader
    @John Johnson


    They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election.
     
    Zelensky ran on a platform of solving the Donbass conflict through negotiations, not sure how that is meant to show his voters at the time were anti-Russia (though obviously many of them must be now given what has happened since).
    But sure, Russia's annexations since February 2022 lack any genuine legitimacy, the referendums can't be taken seriously, it was just a blatant land grab for geopolitical reasons. Question is, what are you going to do about it? Ukraine's offensive has failed. There's zero reason to think Putin will just give up the land bridge to Crimea, because he's suddenly had 2nd thoughts about the wisdom of the annexations or whatever, that's just fantasy.
    Not much point to arguing about it though (at least for me, I'll leave that to the hyper-committed sympathizers of the respective sides).

    (and for clarification, I didn't write that Ukraine is losing. But Ukraine certainly isn't winning decisively either, and in a long war of attrition Russia is likely to be stronger. Nobody can know for certain what will happen, but a total Ukrainian collapse is a risk that can't be discounted).

  214. @John Johnson
    @A123


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    It was directed at @German_reader who believes they are losing.

    They aren't losing if the world's second largest military was pushed backed and is now negotiating for less than 20% of the country. Trying to take the 4 oblasts is a starting point. Zaporizhzhia was never pro-Russian. They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election. Of course Putin will not suggest UN monitored elections. He is hoping to "compromise" and take just former LPR/DPR with Crimea while giving up the Zap to show good faith.

    I've said many times that he will most likely try to walk with Donbas and Crimea. I said that a year ago. It his fans that talk of returning to Kiev or using tactical nukes before accepting that outcome. MacGregor for over a year told us that Ukraine will fall and it will all be Russian. He said there is no possible way that Ukraine will exist. Same for Ritter. The very pro-Putin MoonOfAlabama has daily discussions on how Ukraine will collapse and Putin will be the dwarf hero triumphant.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith.

    How is Zelensky a puppet when the majority of Ukrainians support his policies? How is he not serving the will of the people? Polls show that they support the war. Putin's offer to take Donbas shows that the pro-Putin bloggers were just plain wrong. If Russia had unlimited men/ammo/willpower then Putin wouldn't offer anything. He would wait and then launch a major counter-offensive to take it all.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader

    I have said many times that Putin can accept the current lines. He will offer land further north to keep vital Russian strategic interests such as a fresh water supply for Crimea. Using the Dnieper as part of the new permanent border is wise at it keeps the sides separated.

    The UN is a laughable body that needs to be abolished. No one even vaguely serious would propose or accept “UN monitored elections”.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    I have said many times that Putin can accept the current lines.

    Yes and current lines would mean that he lost by his own goals as stated in his original speech.

    Finland already joined NATO. He said the war was about stopping the Eastward expansion of NATO and Finland has more border with Russia than Ukraine.

    Unless you believe he can talk Finland out of joining as part of deal.

    The UN is a laughable body that needs to be abolished. No one even vaguely serious would propose or accept “UN monitored elections”.

    UN monitored elections would be far more reliable than "Cause Putin said the election is legit".

    Luckily for you it is unlikely that Putin would suggest UN monitored elections. He knows full well that it would make a mockery of his bullshit annexation vote (Ruled illegal by the UN and did not give the LPR/DPR an option of the promised independence). Most of the fighting age men in Donbas are dead and there is no reason to believe that the remaining women would vote to join Russia. Igor Girkin is now on record stating that DPR/LPR was not at all democratic and was fomented by an extreme minority with Russian backing.

    Really not a good day for Putin fans. Russia is most likely running out of ammo and doesn't want to enter a winter war. Not a good sign that they just made a deal with North Korea but still want out.

    Hey anyone else remember how Putin's fans told us that "General Winter" would lead to Russians marching in Kiev? That was when I was called a Jew for pointing out that Russian troops didn't have enough winter gear for the existing lines let alone an offensive. But the response of SHUT UP JEW really brought a fascinating counter-point to the discussion. Good times.

  215. German_reader says:
    @John Johnson
    @A123


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    It was directed at @German_reader who believes they are losing.

    They aren't losing if the world's second largest military was pushed backed and is now negotiating for less than 20% of the country. Trying to take the 4 oblasts is a starting point. Zaporizhzhia was never pro-Russian. They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election. Of course Putin will not suggest UN monitored elections. He is hoping to "compromise" and take just former LPR/DPR with Crimea while giving up the Zap to show good faith.

    I've said many times that he will most likely try to walk with Donbas and Crimea. I said that a year ago. It his fans that talk of returning to Kiev or using tactical nukes before accepting that outcome. MacGregor for over a year told us that Ukraine will fall and it will all be Russian. He said there is no possible way that Ukraine will exist. Same for Ritter. The very pro-Putin MoonOfAlabama has daily discussions on how Ukraine will collapse and Putin will be the dwarf hero triumphant.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith.

    How is Zelensky a puppet when the majority of Ukrainians support his policies? How is he not serving the will of the people? Polls show that they support the war. Putin's offer to take Donbas shows that the pro-Putin bloggers were just plain wrong. If Russia had unlimited men/ammo/willpower then Putin wouldn't offer anything. He would wait and then launch a major counter-offensive to take it all.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader

    They were strong Zelensky supporters in the election.

    Zelensky ran on a platform of solving the Donbass conflict through negotiations, not sure how that is meant to show his voters at the time were anti-Russia (though obviously many of them must be now given what has happened since).
    But sure, Russia’s annexations since February 2022 lack any genuine legitimacy, the referendums can’t be taken seriously, it was just a blatant land grab for geopolitical reasons. Question is, what are you going to do about it? Ukraine’s offensive has failed. There’s zero reason to think Putin will just give up the land bridge to Crimea, because he’s suddenly had 2nd thoughts about the wisdom of the annexations or whatever, that’s just fantasy.
    Not much point to arguing about it though (at least for me, I’ll leave that to the hyper-committed sympathizers of the respective sides).

    (and for clarification, I didn’t write that Ukraine is losing. But Ukraine certainly isn’t winning decisively either, and in a long war of attrition Russia is likely to be stronger. Nobody can know for certain what will happen, but a total Ukrainian collapse is a risk that can’t be discounted).

    • Thanks: A123
  216. @German_reader
    @German_reader

    One should read the entire document. Appendix A should be especially interesting for many readers here, it lists how other countries could be useful for a Gaza expulsion programme.
    Of note:


    - Countries in Europe and especially the Mediterranean - Greece/Spain

    Contribution: Absorption and settlement.

    Incentives: Absorption budgets and financial support to Arab countries for the benefit of this process.

    [...]

    Canada

    Contribution: Absorption of the population and its settlement within the framework of the permissive immigration policy.

     

    Replies: @LatW, @Negronicus, @songbird

    That’s some crazy shit, man.

    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Negronicus

    Just some typical Israeli chutzpah. Nothing special really. As the decades pass, they actually get less unhinged than before. Remember "The Great Israel" from the Nile to the Euphrates ? That was peak Zionist craziness. They're getting mild. I an disappointed, when will theseschlimazels nuke Gaza ?

  217. @AP
    @Beckow


    If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    How about “failed”? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term “paused”, how long do we wait?
     
    To fail you have to try. To try means that they used their military. They have only used a fraction of it. Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected. They may try again if they degrade the Russians sufficiently over time, or may not if they don’t. In that case the offensive will have been aborted.

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment


    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses

     

    They lost at most 30% of their equipment slated for the offensive and have kept 70% of it (some of those losses can be restored). So they only used a fraction.

    The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old
     
    Ukraine has deliberately been trying to avoid drafting young men who can still produce children (plenty of such men have volunteered of purse and they aren’t turned away) in order to not make the coming demographic crisis worse. People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target. An average draft age of 24 would be really bad.

    By the way, predictions of “50% chance” are equivalent to saying “I don’t know“. That’s what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction

     

    But you did call it a prediction.

    And actually it was a prediction. It was a prediction that Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory. A lot of our pro-Russians, and people like Scott Ritter, predicted that Ukraine would either collapse or would lose major areas such as Kharkiv.

    I predicted either stalemate or liberation of the Crimean corridor, about 50% of each one happening. I also predicted that Ukraine would not take Donbas.

    One thing I did not predict (and did not think about to tbh) is that Ukraine would rob Russia of its supremacy over the western Black Sea and would open a shipping corridor from Odessa thanks to its numerous successful strikes on Crimea and capture of that oil platform. This was an unexpected Ukrainian victory.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Mr. XYZ

    Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected.

    That’s true about military who are slightly smarter – but Zelko and his Western sponsors wanted to go full enchilada, consequences be damned. (What is it about these short weirdos that they crave killing as many people as possible?)

    People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target.

    What is this? A deliberate orphan-and-widows creation policy? They didn’t think it through. That demo is also key to a productive economy. Who will come to replace them?

    Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory.

    Ukraine is held up with massive foreign aid that is mathematically unsustainable. If they achieve a stalemate they would be in a tough situation of having to receive 25%-35% of the GNP in foreign aid – most of it loans that theoretically have to be paid back. Russia controls 23% of Ukraine and the dominance of Western Black Sea that you claim is by definition fleeting – Russia can mop them up at their leisure.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Beckow


    People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target.

    What is this? A deliberate orphan-and-widows creation policy?
     
    Losing 30 and 40 year olds are who have already produced children is not as bad as losing 20 year olds who as a result will never produce children. In the former case the country loses one person, in the latter case the country loses several. It’s worse for the long-term demographics.

    This is why Ukraine drafts people in their thirties and forties rather than those in their twenties. They are looking ahead.

    Russia controls 23% of Ukraine
     
    18%.

    When you were writing 20% that could be considered rounding but 23% becomes deceptive. Next you will write 25%, and then 30% even if no territory changes.

    the dominance of Western Black Sea that you claim is by definition fleeting – Russia can mop them up at their leisure.

     

    If they could have done so easily, they would have. Resumption of Odessa port traffic is something Russia strongly opposed. Russia has had to move much of its fleet out of Sevastopol, another negative action for them.
  218. @German_reader
    @German_reader

    One should read the entire document. Appendix A should be especially interesting for many readers here, it lists how other countries could be useful for a Gaza expulsion programme.
    Of note:


    - Countries in Europe and especially the Mediterranean - Greece/Spain

    Contribution: Absorption and settlement.

    Incentives: Absorption budgets and financial support to Arab countries for the benefit of this process.

    [...]

    Canada

    Contribution: Absorption of the population and its settlement within the framework of the permissive immigration policy.

     

    Replies: @LatW, @Negronicus, @songbird

    Find it pretty unsurprising on the whole, but that’s interesting and puzzling how it says ‘especially’ Greece/Spain. What could it mean? Less fatigue from 2015, or a political environment that is seen as more tractable?

    Right now, I’m about 50/50 on whether they will annex part of Gaza, unofficially. Just never let the people back into say the Northerrn 1/4. And in 20 or 30 years time, when it is more convenient, the US will recognize it.

    Sudden Death’s idea that there will be no refugees moved to the West seems less and less likely to me. I predict several hundred thousand. But they may try to play with the numbers a bit – make it seem lower, then do family reunification. I don’t think anyone is honest with numbers these days.

  219. LMFAO!

    The US secretary of state’s daughter, meanwhile, wore a Ukrainian flag-colored outfit for a White House party

    Blinken’s son dresses up as Zelensky for Halloween
    https://www.rt.com/news/586276-us-blinken-zelensky-halloween/

    I’ll stick to the Cossack look.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    When you dress like the unabomber every day like I do cos play is pointless.

    Ha ha ha just kidding!

    Replies: @Ivashka the fool

  220. @A123
    @John Johnson


    why is Putin hinting at peace talks?
     
    Why would he not?

    He has a sound pivot available. Freezing the current lines does not give Russia everything in the publicly announced pre-SMO package. However, there are huge offsetting gains that were not in that list. Notably:

    • Full land bridge to protect Crimea
    • Access to the Dnieper as a fresh water supply
    • ZNPP to run industrial development

    A deal is very workable. Some additional components would include -- Keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and limiting future military build up that would threaten Russian citizens in Crimea. The informal link between NATO and EU is broken, so an EU bid can proceed for a non-NATO Ukraine.

    The problem remains European Empire intransigence. They are keeping their puppet Zelensky from negotiating in good faith. Eventually financial considerations should push EU/Zelensky towards rationality, but there is no obvious timing for that evolution.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Mikhail

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/11112022-checking-recent-western-establishment-russia-ukraine-narratives-oped/

    Excerpt –

    Katz’s proposal is essentially what I advocated on March 11. Months later and tens of thousands of dead, Katz reaches the same settlement. A good deal has changed since then, leading me to an April 4 revision, which sees the Kiev regime losing more territory, in addition to its earlier loss of Crimea.

    In September, Russia declared that Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhe are part of the Russian Federation. To go back on that declaration will be a severe blow to that country’s standing.

    There’s nevertheless room to possibly secure a settlement, where the Kiev regime wouldn’t completely lose all of the territory recently proclaimed as Russian. In turn, Russia would be able to maintain in name these territories, with the other parts staying in Ukraine. For now, neither side appears so willing to consider this scenario.

    Sanctions like the hypocritically bigoted one in sports would’ve to end as well. The upcoming Paris Summer Olympics are so far shaping out to be a politicized zoo run by EU/NATO misfits.

  221. @A123
    @Sean


    Trump would have been likely to demand a deal from Putin with the wedge of a threat to escalate arms for Ukraine unless Russia agreed to terms and cessation of hostilities
     
    Trump grasps a critical fact -- How sides perceive issues influences their actions.

    He would not have inflamed unreasonable expectations in Kiev. Giving them the false perception that they could take Crimea by force escalated the conflict. Trump understood that Russia perceives NATO expansion as a threat. There would be no material efforts in that direction under his watch.

    Things were relatively quiet on this front during Trump's 1st term. There was one-and-only-one moderate sized arms sale of $250-300 million. And, it was clearly about the "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth and related U.S. domestic considerations. Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy. And, Putin was proven correct as no additional transactions of this size occurred later in Trump's 1st term. It was not a first step in changing foreign policy.

    There is every reason to believe that Trump's administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Sean

    There is every reason to believe that Trump’s administration would have discouraged hostilities from starting. He would not have stoked the fire of incompatible perceptions that led to the ground war.

    What led to the war is Ukraine and Russia are separate countries pursuing their own interests.

    Trump grasps a critical fact — How sides perceive issues influences their actions

    In business, Trump’s success was due to a strategy of escalation ‘Either you agree to be satisfied with less or the whole thing collapses and you get nothing at all”. He is a master of double dealing and threats. A shark.

    Putin did not like it, but he perceived it to be unrelated to U.S. foreign policy

    Foreign policy has primacy over domestic policy, the way the war in Vietnam was persisted with until America was almost coming apart politically showed this rather well. Trump could not have let Russia have a walkover in Ukraine even if he had wanted to, and him giving the weapons supplies was a fateful step because the US’ prestige would be at stake were Russia to simply squash Ukraine while Washington did nothing. As well as doing things with major nuclear arms control agreement that Putin did not like, Trump demanded the counties of NATO spend very much more on armaments to deter or threaten Russia. Crucially he ordered the death of Soleimani, the idol of Iran, which shows Trump was unpredictable but in foreign policy the dramatic initiatives he made were always in a hawkish direction; he did not stand for America being made to look impotent, which Russia rolling across Ukraine proper most certainly would have.

  222. Wonder how big the smart fraction could be on a super-habitable world, and what the implications might be.

    Would a bigger Earth definitely trap its inhabitants? Or would there be some way to get off that could handle more gravity? Nuclear propulsion paired with space elevators?

    Would such a planet inevitably come to dominate the galaxy? Or is the whole idea of super-earths wrong?

  223. @Beckow
    @AP


    Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected.
     
    That's true about military who are slightly smarter - but Zelko and his Western sponsors wanted to go full enchilada, consequences be damned. (What is it about these short weirdos that they crave killing as many people as possible?)

    People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target.
     
    What is this? A deliberate orphan-and-widows creation policy? They didn't think it through. That demo is also key to a productive economy. Who will come to replace them?

    Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory.
     
    Ukraine is held up with massive foreign aid that is mathematically unsustainable. If they achieve a stalemate they would be in a tough situation of having to receive 25%-35% of the GNP in foreign aid - most of it loans that theoretically have to be paid back. Russia controls 23% of Ukraine and the dominance of Western Black Sea that you claim is by definition fleeting - Russia can mop them up at their leisure.

    Replies: @AP

    People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target.

    What is this? A deliberate orphan-and-widows creation policy?

    Losing 30 and 40 year olds are who have already produced children is not as bad as losing 20 year olds who as a result will never produce children. In the former case the country loses one person, in the latter case the country loses several. It’s worse for the long-term demographics.

    This is why Ukraine drafts people in their thirties and forties rather than those in their twenties. They are looking ahead.

    Russia controls 23% of Ukraine

    18%.

    When you were writing 20% that could be considered rounding but 23% becomes deceptive. Next you will write 25%, and then 30% even if no territory changes.

    the dominance of Western Black Sea that you claim is by definition fleeting – Russia can mop them up at their leisure.

    If they could have done so easily, they would have. Resumption of Odessa port traffic is something Russia strongly opposed. Russia has had to move much of its fleet out of Sevastopol, another negative action for them.

  224. @AP
    @Beckow


    Really? Let’s play it out: Russia loses the war, millions of Russians are brutally expelled, tens of thousands killed
     
    Russia has already killed 10,000s of Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine. (UN counted around 10,000 but states the actual number is much higher, Mariupol deaths haven’t been counted).

    I’ve never heard Ukrainians in real life wanting to expel millions of people from Eastern Ukraine. This is something one sees online.

    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).

    As a Slovak you demonstrate that you don’t care about 100,000s of dead Eastern Slavs. Maybe it’s some Magyar heritage? Your people eagerly joined Hitler on his crusade, and you are a fan of Stalin, who has worse things to say about his Baltic, Ukrainian and Polish victims than about him. And so you defend as “necessary” Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Mr. XYZ

    But I’ve heard a few Russians in real life saying that Russia should have taken the same approach towards Donbas that Armenia took towards Nagorno-Karabakh. Acknowledge the international borders, and take in all people who want to move. It won’t be all of them as in Azerbaijan anyways. Give them homes in Russia. Avoid 100,000s in war deaths and 100,000s in horrible injuries, not to mention sanctions, as a result of this war of choice. Have a normal country. This is what Armenia’s leaders have done (it’s a smaller scale so they avoided 10,000s deaths rather than 100,000s).

    As a Slovak you demonstrate that you don’t care about 100,000s of dead Eastern Slavs. Maybe it’s some Magyar heritage? Your people eagerly joined Hitler on his crusade, and you are a fan of Stalin, who has worse things to say about his Baltic, Ukrainian and Polish victims than about him. And so you defend as “necessary” Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

    Svido ethnic cleansing advocacy.

    “Your people” (Galician SS) participated in the crushing of the Slovak rebellion against the pro-Nazi Slovak regime headed by a Roman Catholic cleric.

    Ukraine would’ve been better off if the 2014 power sharing agreement was honored. The next mistake wasn’t adhering to the Minsk Accords which would’ve kept Donbass in Ukraine, with that former Soviet republic maintaining its already stated neutrality.

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/22102023-answering-biden-on-russia-ukraine-and-israel-palestine-oped/

    Excerpt –

    Armed conflicts led to the post-WW II breakup of Yugoslavia, the creation of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh (among other countries) in their present form. The world at large accepts the idea of a two-state solution regarding Israelis and Palestinians. Likewise, the Russia-Kiev regime dispute reveals the viable option for territorial change and a changed security arrangement concerning Russia and the collective West.

    The territory encompassing the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic brought together people with different historical, cultural, religious and linguistic preferences. In order for this dynamic to properly function as an independent state, a fine balance is required.

    Russia and the pro-Russian element in Ukraine’s Soviet drawn boundary accepted an independent Ukraine within its Communist drawn boundary, as long as it at least remained neutral and on good terms with Russia, in conjunction with respecting the pro-Russian sentiment in that former Soviet republic. When anti-Russian elements in Ukraine gained control via coup like circumstances in 2014, the pro-Russian side rebelled with the support and sympathy of the Russophile community elsewhere.

    Within its Communist drawn boundary, post-Soviet Ukraine had a lengthy period of time to develop into a nation which respected those having a pro-Russian orientation. Numerous instances reveal that the reverse occurred after 2014, with some disturbing trends evident beforehand.

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the war in the former Ukrainian SSR began years before the start of Russia’s February 24, 2022 Special Military Operation – something that Donbass residents are especially aware of. Stoltenberg added that the Kiev regime was receiving arms and training from some NATO countries for several years prior to 2022.

    Biden’s insistence on continuing a failed proxy war against Russia prolongs an agony which has been especially hurtful to Ukraine and the economy of Western nations. In comparison, the Russian economy has prevailed with Putin standing a good chance to hold high office after Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Olaf Scholz, Emanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak and Volodymyr Zelensky have been replaced.

    Recall the efforts to remove Bashar Assad, Alexander Lukashenko and Nicholas Maduro. Of that grouping, Putin appears to be in a much stronger position.

    Biden’s foreign policy adventurism takes away from substantively dealing with pressing socioeconomic issues in the US. Throughout America, elected officials stress the need for more funding to improve the well-being of a population facing greater challenges.

  225. I suspect that the idea that old radio transmissions are dangerous and will alert aliens to our presence is based on old technology paradigms.

    [MORE]

    Radio telescopes originally dominated SETI, and that is where it must come from.

    They can work during daylight. They can be used in very large arrays, unlike with light. Adaptive optics that correct for atmospheric distortion are very new. As are large optics in space designed to find planets.

    Earth has had a detectable biosignature for billions of years. Probably fairly rare.

    Any aggressive, technologically-advanced aliens would be hunting by biosignature – that is really obvious. Not radio waves.

  226. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    The MSM have told so many lies about Ukraine winning, why should I believe them now when they say they’re losing?
     
    It was always the more likely outcome. Presumably the failure of Ukraine's offensive was so bad it can't be denied anymore.
    I don't regard this is a positive development btw, despite my frequent criticisms of Ukraine. If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking, and with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @YetAnotherAnon

    “If Ukraine collapses completely and Trump wins in 2024, the security implications for continental Europeans could be shocking”

    I could see Russia politely asking Poland to please get rid of the American missile systems pointed at them (Aegis?) but I really don’t think Russia want to send divisions anywhere near Germany. I think they want what they said they wanted in 2007 i.e. not to be threatened by NATO expansion.

    “with the irresponsible leadership one has (not least in Germany) who knows what will happen then”

    Maybe I’m an incurable optimist, but I really think another winter with expensive US gas and manufacturing decline will concentrate their minds wonderfully. But we don’t know, it could be another mild winter like last year when the ground (and Europeans) didn’t freeze.

    I may be wrong, as the German Greens are a wholly owned subsidiary of the US State Department so you never know what new foolishness Ms Bareback might get up to.

  227. @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Afghanistan 1989
    Poland 1920
    Germany 1917
    Japan 1905
    Crimean War 1856

    Out of these, only Afghanistan and Poland have proven to be lasting so far. Ignoring the fact that all of those depended upon internal turmoil within Russia, Germany 1917, Japan 1905, and Crimean War 1856 were all undone within a few decades where the situation was revised in Russia’s favor. Germany 1945, Japan 1945, and Russo-Turkish War 1878.
     
    An interesting redefinition of success.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.


    I personally think the better historical models/patterns related to the current Ukraine War are the wars of the Slavs against Khazaria (very few primary sources about Khazaria in general) and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth vs Muscovy/Russia.
     
    Ever since Khmelnytsky's treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    A key differences: Ukraine has been supplied well, but not equipped as well as Poland was. The French went all-in when helping Poland, while Biden has been slow in providing the best weapons - if Ukraine 2022 were treated like Poland 1920 it would have gotten F-16s, ATACMS, etc. long long ago and may very well have won the war by now by crushing the Russians sufficiently to force them to the peace table on acceptable terms. Instead, Ukraine was able to defeat the Russian attempts to occupy the country and to take back many of its lands but not quickly or comprehensively enough to prevent the Russians from consolidating their positions in the South, resulting in a much more drawn-out war.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North's industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn't come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    Replies: @Sean, @Mr. XYZ, @ShortOnTime

    An interesting redefinition of success.

    There seems to be no consensus on what you define or mean as a successful war against Russia.

    By that weird standard, the Soviets lost World War II because eventually, Germany became the most powerful country in Europe, the Soviet regime disappeared, and Moscow has lost even more territory than Russia did in 1918 at Brest-Litovsk. Moscow has far less territory than it did in 1939.

    Also, the Russian territorial gains of the Russo-Turkish war of 1878 were undone (Russia no longer has Moldova, and the parts of Georgia that it had gained in that war such as Batumi are now in Georgia). So by your interesting standard, Russia lost that war just as the USSR lost World War II.

    Clearly you’ve noticed that history is impermanent and that with enough time nothing is impossible.

    Ever since Khmelnytsky’s treason in 1648 compounded in 1656, Ukrainians have been struggling to get themselves out of the Eurasian Muscovite yoke that Khmelnytsky got them into. This has been a very long struggle, with poor results due to Ukrainian divisions and Muscovite strength. Currently, Ukrainians are more united than ever, while Russia is weaker than it had been. Which is very different.

    No model is a perfect fit, but the closest is the Polish-Soviet war of 1920. Russia was coming off the Civil War, Poland while politically divided was strongly militarily united, and was lavishly supported by the West.

    Today, Russia is coming off the post-Soviet self-destruction and lacks Central Asia, Ukraine is strongly united, and lavishly equipped by the West.

    Ignoring the fact that Ukrainian Galician nationalism has its roots in Poland forcibly imposing Roman Catholicism even before the Union of Brest, the Polish-Soviet War is the most nonsensical analogy. It constituted a single failed mad dash by the Bolsheviks on Warsaw when the Whites were still around and multiple other rebellions were popping simultaneously in their core areas. Also, the Bolsheviks simply waited to come back again in 1939 as you presumably well know with the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

    The Bolsheviks also didn’t care about annexing specific Polish provinces and entrenching them with defensive fortifications. Poland didn’t make a failed offensive or “counter-offensive” against the Bolsheviks either. That’s as far as analogies to the present Ukraine War.

    Otherwise, as a point of history, it’s worth stating Poland brought the Bolshevik/Communist onslaught upon itself by turning against the Russian Whites (Britain took the lead in this though) back when Yudenich and Denikin were poised to make their moves on Moscow in 1919. Poland’s intervention in Ukraine during the Russian Civil War also harmed all the other actors besides the Bolsheviks.

    As for Russia and the current war since the post-Soviet decline, nations and empires can revive themselves again as history records instances of that. More recently, China overcame Tiananmen Square in 1991 and other internal conflicts between various cliques and is now stronger than it’s ever been in 2023 since the 18th century. In Turkey the 2016 coup attempt failed and despite economic issues regarding the currency, Erdogan has purged everyone else and made multiple successful military gambits in Turkey’s neighborhood. Could be too early to say, but with the suppression of the Prigozhin mutiny, perhaps Russia too could be on an a process of a belated rise and reconsolidation.

    Regarding Ukraine “lavishly equipped by the West”, that may not outlast a few more years as the current Mid-East War illustrates (notice the diversion of all the 155mm artillery ammunition from Ukraine to Israel lol) and any trouble over China-Taiwan that may yet come.

    Admittedly, there are just too many variables which is why only short term predictions about these sorts of international affairs are the only feasible and realistic ones to make.

    A second model could be the US Civil war, IF the South had a land border with Europe and was lavishly supplied by the Europeans (mitigating the North’s industrial advantage) and IF the North hadn’t come up with brilliant generals such as Grant or Sherman but continued bumbling along.

    The US Civil War analogy but with significant foreign meddling is a decent one. In that sense the Korean War too. Ted Galen Carpenter expounded upon it best out of everyone I’ve seen in that regard:

    https://www.cato.org/commentary/unwarranted-optimism

    • Replies: @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    An interesting redefinition of success.

    There seems to be no consensus on what you define or mean as a successful war against Russia.
     

    The consensus is that if the peace treaty or at the end of the war the country ends up with less than it had in the beginning and/or has failed to achieve its goals, then the country has lost the war.

    So Russia lost to Germany in 1918, as demonstrated by the conditions of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

    It also lost to Poland in 1921, as evidenced by the Riga Treaty of 1921.

    USSR won in 1945.

    If the results of the war are undone decades later, it does not mean that the war was lost.

    The fact that all of the gains from 1945 were undone (and then some) in 1991 does not mean that the USSR lost World War II.

    The fact that the loss to Germany of 1918 was undone by 1945 does not mean that Russia defeated Germany in World War I.

    This should not be hard to understand.


    Ignoring the fact that Ukrainian Galician nationalism has its roots in Poland forcibly imposing Roman Catholicism
     
    No, it has its roots in Central-East Ukrainian nationalism that was brought to Galicia in the 19th century. Galicians were Polonophiles, then Russophiles (under Austrian sponsorship, when Russia and Austria were allies) and finally Ukrainian nationalists (when Austria and Russia became rivals and the Austrians let all the exiles from Moscow-ruled Ukraine in). Even the most extreme variant of Galician nationalism was brought to Galicia by Dmytro Dontsov, a Cossack from Melitopol who moved to Lviv and then wrote from Swiss exile.

    And Poland forced Greek Catholicism not Roman Catholicism.


    the Polish-Soviet War is the most nonsensical analogy. It constituted a single failed mad dash by the Bolsheviks on Warsaw
     
    Sorry, you really are unclear about the history of this region.

    It was a major war for about a year, from spring 1920. It ended with the Soviet mad dash where the Soviets were crushed in spring 1921.


    when the Whites were still around and multiple other rebellions were popping simultaneously in their core areas.
     
    The Whites were on their way out. Other rebellions were minor enough that the Soviets were able to send a million man army against Poland, and were defeated.

    The Bolsheviks also didn’t care about annexing specific Polish provinces and entrenching them with defensive fortifications.
     
    They would have been happy to have done so if given the chance. They had a Polish Soviet government waiting.

    Poland didn’t make a failed offensive or “counter-offensive” against the Bolsheviks either
     
    Because Poland was supplied better than Ukraine is. Poland was able to throw the Bolsheviks completely out of Poland and out of western Ukraine and western Belarus. The analogy would be if Ukraine were given lots of F-16s and ATACMS and hundreds of tanks right away such that Ukraine troops had been able to retake Crimea and all of its other lands in spring 2023.

    Instead, Ukraine was given enough to stop the Russians and to retake Kharkiv and Kherson north of the Dnipro.


    Otherwise, as a point of history, it’s worth stating Poland brought the Bolshevik/Communist onslaught upon itself by turning against the Russian Whites
     
    They refused to reject claims to Polish territories. This was Denikin's fatal mistake. Russian greed for lands not populated by Russians had negative consequences for Russia.

    Replies: @ShortOnTime

  228. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    I said from the beginning that the only way to defeat Russia in a way that Russia would accept the defeat (and not use nukes) is to flip China. Very unlikely.

    Putin just offered to walk with the 4 oblasts that fake voted to join Russia. Of course he also wants Crimea.

    You clearly have too much faith in Putin. He supposedly recently had a heart attack and clearly wants it to end. Your fantasies of him killing even more Ukrainians and Russians to stab at Western windmills are now less likely. Some Russian telegram channels are claiming he is dead and the body double has taken over for a Kremlin coalition.

    Given what Ukies have done to Russia and to Russians in Ukraine that will not be accepted.

    Have more Donbas ethic Russians died in this war or from 2014-2021?

    Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front. They clearly don't view them as ethnic kin. At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons. Putin didn't even bother to give them AK-47s.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front.”

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    “At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons.”

    Don’t forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    Why isn't there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot? Very similar to the dam explosion where Russian conveniently didn't provide a security camera.


    “At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons.”
     
    Don’t forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    I don't operate from my imagination. Unlike you I don't have to engage in wishful thinking to defend a dwarf dictator. I don't put my faith in any government and certainly not one managed by a bitter 5'3 dictator who has killed his own allies for simply being against the war.

    DPR Militia using WW1 era Mosin Nagants in the invasion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c963-HaxFvY

    Russia was indeed pulling computer chips from appliances. Would you like a source on that as well?

    Take a look at their imports. They're dependent on Western computer chips and I warned about this at the start of the invasion. I also warned that you can't just import any type of replacement chip from China. We already went through this with the COVID chip shortage. It's a myth that all computer chips are built overseas.

    Replies: @A123, @Sean

  229. @A123
    @John Johnson

    I have said many times that Putin can accept the current lines. He will offer land further north to keep vital Russian strategic interests such as a fresh water supply for Crimea. Using the Dnieper as part of the new permanent border is wise at it keeps the sides separated.

    The UN is a laughable body that needs to be abolished. No one even vaguely serious would propose or accept "UN monitored elections".

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    I have said many times that Putin can accept the current lines.

    Yes and current lines would mean that he lost by his own goals as stated in his original speech.

    Finland already joined NATO. He said the war was about stopping the Eastward expansion of NATO and Finland has more border with Russia than Ukraine.

    Unless you believe he can talk Finland out of joining as part of deal.

    The UN is a laughable body that needs to be abolished. No one even vaguely serious would propose or accept “UN monitored elections”.

    UN monitored elections would be far more reliable than “Cause Putin said the election is legit”.

    Luckily for you it is unlikely that Putin would suggest UN monitored elections. He knows full well that it would make a mockery of his bullshit annexation vote (Ruled illegal by the UN and did not give the LPR/DPR an option of the promised independence). Most of the fighting age men in Donbas are dead and there is no reason to believe that the remaining women would vote to join Russia. Igor Girkin is now on record stating that DPR/LPR was not at all democratic and was fomented by an extreme minority with Russian backing.

    Really not a good day for Putin fans. Russia is most likely running out of ammo and doesn’t want to enter a winter war. Not a good sign that they just made a deal with North Korea but still want out.

    Hey anyone else remember how Putin’s fans told us that “General Winter” would lead to Russians marching in Kiev? That was when I was called a Jew for pointing out that Russian troops didn’t have enough winter gear for the existing lines let alone an offensive. But the response of SHUT UP JEW really brought a fascinating counter-point to the discussion. Good times.

  230. @YetAnotherAnon
    @John Johnson

    "Russians are on captured intercepts talking about how Donbas Russians are a joke and were sent to the front."

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    "At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons."

    Don't forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    Why isn’t there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot? Very similar to the dam explosion where Russian conveniently didn’t provide a security camera.

    “At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons.”

    Don’t forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    I don’t operate from my imagination. Unlike you I don’t have to engage in wishful thinking to defend a dwarf dictator. I don’t put my faith in any government and certainly not one managed by a bitter 5’3 dictator who has killed his own allies for simply being against the war.

    DPR Militia using WW1 era Mosin Nagants in the invasion

    Russia was indeed pulling computer chips from appliances. Would you like a source on that as well?

    Take a look at their imports. They’re dependent on Western computer chips and I warned about this at the start of the invasion. I also warned that you can’t just import any type of replacement chip from China. We already went through this with the COVID chip shortage. It’s a myth that all computer chips are built overseas.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why isn’t there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot?
     
    Perhaps Hamas does not want video that shows that the "hospital" is also Hamas HQ? If such video exists, would you trust anything that Hamas releases?

    The still pictures are fairly conclusive. There is no bomb crater. There is fire damage that exceeds the fuel available in the parked cars. That is consistent with a Hamas mistake falling out of the sky on their own building. Another likely explanation for why Hamas will not release the video.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Sean
    @John Johnson


    What We Keep Getting Wrong About Russia
    Triangle 26

    1.6K views
    An educational presentation discussing the material history of the Mosin rifle, and what it tells us about modern Russian military
     
    Already posted the above so I won't repeat.

    As for can the West use sanctions to help Ukraine seriously threaten Russia's ability to continue as a major power, or even trade profitably? Yes, but there are good reason to be chary about doing so. The official policy of Washington , which Biden and Austen have both openly discussed is to make Russia tooo weak for another Ukraine style adventure. But Ukraine cannot eliminate Russia as a threat to the US, indeed and the weaker Russia gets economically and productive capacity through supply chain bottlenecks the more likely it is to panic and be provoked into a direct confrontation with the US. This is why Washington is willing to would but afraid to really strike albeit indirectly :-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlD6_sOcIzA

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  231. @AP
    @Beckow


    If it never gets restarted, then “cancelled” will be the final judgment.

    How about “failed”? The definition of offensive is a strategic breakthrough. At best Ukies achieved small tactical victories, overall not even that. You used the term “paused”, how long do we wait?
     
    To fail you have to try. To try means that they used their military. They have only used a fraction of it. Looks like they backed off after they realized the Russian defenses were stronger than expected. They may try again if they degrade the Russians sufficiently over time, or may not if they don’t. In that case the offensive will have been aborted.

    Ukraine retains the absolute majority of men and equipment


    You are fuzzy with numbers. Ukraine lost over 100k men and had very substantial weapons losses

     

    They lost at most 30% of their equipment slated for the offensive and have kept 70% of it (some of those losses can be restored). So they only used a fraction.

    The current average age of Ukie draftee is 43, a bit old
     
    Ukraine has deliberately been trying to avoid drafting young men who can still produce children (plenty of such men have volunteered of purse and they aren’t turned away) in order to not make the coming demographic crisis worse. People in their mid thirties (who already have kids, even if young ones) through late forties are the ideal target. An average draft age of 24 would be really bad.

    By the way, predictions of “50% chance” are equivalent to saying “I don’t know“. That’s what 50% means. So I would not call what you wrote a prediction

     

    But you did call it a prediction.

    And actually it was a prediction. It was a prediction that Ukraine would not collapse and that Russia would not gain significant territory. A lot of our pro-Russians, and people like Scott Ritter, predicted that Ukraine would either collapse or would lose major areas such as Kharkiv.

    I predicted either stalemate or liberation of the Crimean corridor, about 50% of each one happening. I also predicted that Ukraine would not take Donbas.

    One thing I did not predict (and did not think about to tbh) is that Ukraine would rob Russia of its supremacy over the western Black Sea and would open a shipping corridor from Odessa thanks to its numerous successful strikes on Crimea and capture of that oil platform. This was an unexpected Ukrainian victory.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Sean, @Mr. XYZ

    Ukraine won with some inspired offensives, but failed to make good on its advantage by following up last year’s string of major successes to keep Russia off balance (this analysis is generally accepted in Ukraine now). Russia has looked all over the place but although difficult to understand how it can be, what Russia is doing is still quite effective. Ukraine is Mike Tyson with clean power shots while the reality (not official doctrine) of Russia’s way of war resembles Tyson Fury is a slapping windmill alternating with grappling opponents round the neck and collapsing on them like a two ton blancmange (Ali did something similar). Thw Wagner style of attack in Bakhmut his being used again in Adividika!

    Another similarity is feints and a particular type of stamina, Mike Tyson never used them, Tyson Fury feints more than he punches, and through decades of training built a great ability to self recharge between rounds, thereby getting comparatively stronger the longer the bout goes on. Although it lacks the the ability to knock Ukraine out of the war, Russia’s size, propinquity and unwillingness to quit makes a gradual gaining of the upper hand by Russian forces quite likely. There is no way Ukraine can keep Russia out; even if it was (for the sake of argument) driven out of Ukraine, why on earth would Russia (under the current or any future leader) sign a peace treaty recognizing that as a final settlement of the border?

  232. @John Johnson
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    Why isn't there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot? Very similar to the dam explosion where Russian conveniently didn't provide a security camera.


    “At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons.”
     
    Don’t forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    I don't operate from my imagination. Unlike you I don't have to engage in wishful thinking to defend a dwarf dictator. I don't put my faith in any government and certainly not one managed by a bitter 5'3 dictator who has killed his own allies for simply being against the war.

    DPR Militia using WW1 era Mosin Nagants in the invasion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c963-HaxFvY

    Russia was indeed pulling computer chips from appliances. Would you like a source on that as well?

    Take a look at their imports. They're dependent on Western computer chips and I warned about this at the start of the invasion. I also warned that you can't just import any type of replacement chip from China. We already went through this with the COVID chip shortage. It's a myth that all computer chips are built overseas.

    Replies: @A123, @Sean

    Why isn’t there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot?

    Perhaps Hamas does not want video that shows that the “hospital” is also Hamas HQ? If such video exists, would you trust anything that Hamas releases?

    The still pictures are fairly conclusive. There is no bomb crater. There is fire damage that exceeds the fuel available in the parked cars. That is consistent with a Hamas mistake falling out of the sky on their own building. Another likely explanation for why Hamas will not release the video.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Sean
    • Disagree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    Perhaps Hamas does not want video that shows that the “hospital” is also Hamas HQ? If such video exists, would you trust anything that Hamas releases?

    It would be from the hospital and not Hamas.

    But yes I would trust a CCTV video that is quickly released. Hamas doesn't have the technology to quickly create a fake video.

    The still pictures are fairly conclusive. There is no bomb crater. There is fire damage that exceeds the fuel available in the parked cars. That is consistent with a Hamas mistake falling out of the sky on their own building. Another likely explanation for why Hamas will not release the video.

    I think it was most likely a Hamas missile. I don't think Israel would have missed with an Apache. There isn't a crater and the fire looked like it was burning unspent fuel. But I'm not 100% certain. I'm leaning towards Hamas but I'd like to see more evidence. My guess is that it is similar to the Russian dam in that they don't want to release the security video because it is incriminating. Innocent parties don't hold back CCTV footage.

    Replies: @Sean

  233. @Mikhail
    LMFAO!

    The US secretary of state’s daughter, meanwhile, wore a Ukrainian flag-colored outfit for a White House party

    Blinken’s son dresses up as Zelensky for Halloween
    https://www.rt.com/news/586276-us-blinken-zelensky-halloween/

    I'll stick to the Cossack look.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    When you dress like the unabomber every day like I do cos play is pointless.

    Ha ha ha just kidding!

    • LOL: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Ivashka the fool
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    Ted Kaczynsky did nothing wrong...

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  234. @John Johnson
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Yes, and captured Palestinian intercepts show that a home-made Hamas missile killed hundreds of people at a hospital, although no previous Hamas missile has ever killed more than a few people!

    Why isn't there footage from the hospital given that the explosion was in the parking lot? Very similar to the dam explosion where Russian conveniently didn't provide a security camera.


    “At the start of the war they were seen with WW1 era weapons.”
     
    Don’t forget how they took all the computer chips out of the washing machines!

    I don't operate from my imagination. Unlike you I don't have to engage in wishful thinking to defend a dwarf dictator. I don't put my faith in any government and certainly not one managed by a bitter 5'3 dictator who has killed his own allies for simply being against the war.

    DPR Militia using WW1 era Mosin Nagants in the invasion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c963-HaxFvY

    Russia was indeed pulling computer chips from appliances. Would you like a source on that as well?

    Take a look at their imports. They're dependent on Western computer chips and I warned about this at the start of the invasion. I also warned that you can't just import any type of replacement chip from China. We already went through this with the COVID chip shortage. It's a myth that all computer chips are built overseas.

    Replies: @A123, @Sean

    What We Keep Getting Wrong About Russia
    Triangle 26

    1.6K views
    An educational presentation discussing the material history of the Mosin rifle, and what it tells us about modern Russian military

    Already posted the above so I won’t repeat.

    As for can the West use sanctions to help Ukraine seriously threaten Russia’s ability to continue as a major power, or even trade profitably? Yes, but there are good reason to be chary about doing so. The official policy of Washington , which Biden and Austen have both openly discussed is to make Russia tooo weak for another Ukraine style adventure. But Ukraine cannot eliminate Russia as a threat to the US, indeed and the weaker Russia gets economically and productive capacity through supply chain bottlenecks the more likely it is to panic and be provoked into a direct confrontation with the US. This is why Washington is willing to would but afraid to really strike albeit indirectly :-

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @Sean

    "the weaker Russia gets economically and productive capacity through supply chain bottlenecks the more likely it is to panic and be provoked into a direct confrontation with the US"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrrIRr9arkM

  235. @silviosilver
    @Mr. XYZ

    It just goes to show - there's good in everyone. :)

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Your ublock howto works here too until you tube wises up.

    Thank you sir!

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I've never had any issue on YouTube using plug and play AdBlock Plus. I've honestly always been surprised by that, but am not complaining.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  236. @Dmitry
    @LatW

    The rational policy from the citizens' view (although citizens' view doesn't exist in the region), would be for Moscow to support Chechen independence after 1991.

    In exchange for support from Moscow, support from Grozny against the anti-Russian violence. Although the alternative of what happened shows this would not be a priority, the Russian community of Grozny was killed directly by the Russian army after December 1994.

    If there was funding available for resettlements, then there could have been a population exchange, giving Chechens from Russia, for Russians in Grozny and Gudermes.

    -

    It's reminding of 2022 in Ukraine.

    In 2014, there was anti-Russian violence in Odessa. But in 2022, the people who were called "Russian" in 2014, Russian aviation and cruise missiles bomb the same population, which the media were saying Kiev persecuted 9 years before.


    failed “SMO” has facilitated the Islamification of Russia?
     
    Islamists become significant in Chechnia after 1995 as immediately result of the military operation of Moscow. Kadyrov officially announces a jihad in 1995.

    And in the end, the Islamists were easier for Moscow than the nationalists and Kadyrov becomes their servant.

    But the question if they are authentic Islamists? Even an Islamically trained Akhmat Kadyrov is not very authentic and historians say he was a KGB agent in the 1980s.

    So, perhaps, we could still wonder, if real Islam is actually developing in Chechnia under Kadyrov, or if it is still a superficial packaging.


    During those years people were seeking new identities, their world had shattered…

     

    It's probably the most psychologically confused population in the world's history. It creates the discordant and inauthentic copy-paste culture of the 1990s.

    This is why I added Mutsurayev as a stereotypical example

    He plays the music of Nirvana i.e. American rock music. Then he is singing Russian, while adding fake pseudo-Islamic and nationalist themes. While he doesn't know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.

    Begin with perestroika culture. Listen to fashionable American rock bands. Add spices of the postsoviet nationalism. Then finish with a fake Islamic/jihad packaging after Gulf funding has made this fashionable in your separatist region, without knowing the basic things about Islam.

    But at least Mutsurayev sounds like American rock music, which Americans would consider competent on the musical level.

    It's not exactly "Shaman", which songs like rock music for an American children's animation film, I think Americans would probably not even accept as music for Walmart.

    Replies: @LatW

    In exchange for support from Moscow, support from Grozny against the anti-Russian violence.

    The power vacuum that was created due to the collapse would probably not have allowed to control this properly – there was a kind of an anarchy for a while (not in the sense of complete chaos, but in the sense of lack of governance and control), that was taken over by certain forces, so hypothetically this deal would be fair, but the question would be enforcing it. Also, I highly doubt that the Chechens of independent Ichkeria would be ok with most of the Russian population staying. Don’t know what means there would’ve been to protect the population from violence.

    [MORE]

    Although the alternative of what happened shows this would not be a priority, the Russian community of Grozny was killed directly by the Russian army after December 1994.

    The footage shows also a lot of dead Chechens. And many fled prior to the bombings. But you’re right that we may never know the exact details. Given the demographics in Grozny, there would’ve been a lot of Russian casualties. It is cannibalistic that way, given how the Russians had settled across the USSR. I know that some of the Chechens that fled are now in Turkey, but where are the Russians?

    And it’s uncanny how the same thing is happening in Eastern Ukraine where it is the Russian speakers being killed. Totally crazy. It’s slipping away so the Kremlin is cannibalizing.

    If there was funding available for resettlements, then there could have been a population exchange, giving Chechens from Russia, for Russians in Grozny and Gudermes.

    In Estonia, funding was offered (quite a lot actually), but the local Russians didn’t take the offer (it’s ok, it’s understandable). But in Ichkeria they might (or maybe not). Definitely the Chechens from Russia would need to move too, maybe not the married ones, but definitely the gangsters and the MMA fighters. Thanks, but no thanks! Now it may no longer be possible, because they are so entrenched in Moscow now. But they were already there in the 1980s for the education (it’s similar how the Baltic awakeners in the 19th century got their education in St Pete).

    And in the end, the Islamists were easier for Moscow than the nationalists and Kadyrov becomes their servant.

    Tribal nationalists, especially Chechen ones, are a much tougher nut to crack than fake Islamists who take money from the Saudis (and other shady characters – although they had to take it as they had nothing) and who only recently started giving themselves Arabic nicknames. This is not their true identity, the Chechen tribal culture is. They only got Kadyrov because they had been pounded so hard by that point. We don’t know to what extent their tribal culture has remained, but I heard this guy Yangulbaev (Kadyrov critic) complaining recently that there is discontent there, because the culture under Kadyrov is changing too much.

    So, perhaps, we could still wonder, if real Islam is actually developing in Chechnia under Kadyrov, or if it is still a superficial packaging.

    It looks rather fake and artificial, but there are definitely traditional strains there, there is some footage where the Chechen rebels were already referring to Jihad in the early 1990s, even during the nationalist uprising. But it’s not the same as Wahabbism, that spread later (and not just in Chechnya).
    Not sure what the current version of Kadyrov Islam really is. The ones who are doing those zikrs with the running in a circle, that’s their real, authentic religion.

    It’s probably the most psychologically confused population in the world’s history. It creates the discordant and inauthentic copy-paste culture of the 1990s.

    It’s a huge tragedy and was unduly harsh on the population. But you’re being a bit too harsh here, many people enjoyed the freedom and many people were able to find the old identities. Remember that the “copy-paste” part did not just happen in EE, but in Europe in general – for example in Scandinavia they were taking a lot from the American pop culture and the European economic system may have been slightly altered into the neo-liberal direction, eventually as we see now.

    This is why I added Mutsurayev as a stereotypical example

    He plays the music of Nirvana i.e. American rock music. Then he is singing Russian, while adding fake pseudo-Islamic and nationalist themes. While he doesn’t know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.

    I understand what you’re saying, but you judge a bit too harshly. The appeal of Mutsurayev is something that people have always liked – it is a kind of a simple guy singing soulful songs. Nice, natural raspy, manly voice is not like the desperate screaming of Kurt Cobain. Although that had major appeal, too.

    The themes are anti-Israel Jihadist themes, that he may have picked up from reading history (even recent history) or picked up from his associates. And in those early years of the 1990s these things started to appear in their reality which may have been hidden before or not openly spoken about. Dima, what happens in the secularized city may not have been the same what happens in the auls.

    While he doesn’t know the Muslim name for their third holiest city.

    If he sang with the Arabic name, many Russian speakers may not have been able to relate. He is using this name because it resonates more widely.

    Begin with perestroika culture. Listen to fashionable American rock bands. Add spices of the postsoviet nationalism. Then finish with a fake Islamic/jihad packaging after Gulf funding has made this fashionable in your separatist region, without knowing the basic things about Islam.

    No, I agree, it is comical (we had similar ridiculous excesses and aping). But there is a deep, authentic culture underneath. Even though the Chechen culture was destroyed in many ways, the Soviets even used to remove their tombstones in the 1940s. They shipped out a lot of their old records that held memories about their older generations.

    It’s not exactly “Shaman”, which songs like rock music for an American children’s animation film, I think Americans would probably not even accept as music for Walmart.

    Americans have their own versions of Shaman. His voice is well trained and I like his stage presence (and he does sing folk songs well, he was trained in folk singing), my biggest beef with him is that he is a prodazhnaya shkura, of course, many of these singers are and this is what Russians requested last year, however, it’s weird when he sings Я русский, and simultaneously there is a dead baby in a basement in Mariupol whose mother is a Russian speaker. Who they don’t even care about.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW


    vacuum that was created due to the collapse would probably not have allowed to control this properly
     
    Government resettling a hundred thousand people from either side is not the most difficult project even in a disorganized Russia in 1992, not requiring a lot of casualties. Today, there as many just Tajiks resettling in Moscow every year, than solving of the ethnic conflict in Chechnia would have required in 1992.

    funding was offered (quite a lot actually), but the local Russians didn’t take the offer (it’s ok, it’s understandable). But in Ichkeria they might
     
    Well, Estonia is a future EU country, where it is better to live than in Russia. For Russians in Grozny and Gudermes, the incentive was different.

    But you write like this needed to be voluntary. Involuntary resettlement is a lot easier, more human rights and less violent than beginning a war. Stalin was resettling millions of people every year. Stalin resettled the complete Chechen population to Kazakhstan in a couple weeks in 1944, while the country was preparing military successes like the Bagration operation.


    many people enjoyed the freedom and many people were able to find the old identities. Remember that the “copy-paste”
     
    I don't see copy-paste is comical until it becomes discordant.

    An example similar with Mutsurayev's "Jihad rock", like Putin's anti-Western rock concerts, with the Bruce Springsteen copy-paste songs like the Gazmanov's "Сделан В СССР".

    The music is American. The message is supposed to be nationalist. The music contradicts the lyrics.


    Arabic name, many Russian speakers may not have been able to relate. He is using this name because it resonates more widely.
     
    The explanation only makes sense, if song is intended for non-Muslim Russians.

    If you play this song for Muslims, they would believe it was an American Jewish rock song.

    If you play it for Palestinians, they would kill him.

    It's because he didn't know about the topic and he didn't the acceptable names of the city for Muslims in that. Writing songs in the interwar Chechen Republic in 1996, before you could search on the internet.


    there is a deep, authentic culture underneath. Even though the Chechen culture

     

    Of course they have a real culture underneath from the South. It's also a regional culture and it's more similar among Caucasian mountain areas.

    their own versions of Shaman. His voice is well trained and I like his stage presence (and he does sing folk songs well, he was trained in folk singing), my biggest beef
     
    Are musically educated?

    For the message also requires people to be not musically educated or not to know the origin of the music, not to hear harmony, rhythm, melody.

    Because lyrics are not important like the music, which has a national history and origin. This music is organic expression of the nationality who create it.

    In this case, it is American rock music, which is created by Americans, expresses their innovation in many different ways typical of the genre, it's American culture and emotions, their technology level, their religious music tradition, also the demographic situation inherited the 20th century (for example, the African rhythms from the descendants of slaves).

    The melody of these rock songs, even when Russians sing them, also expresses English speech intonations.

    To use all the American music which expresses the American soul, for your song "Я русский", in the anti-Western astroturf context, is something comical.

    I guess there are people who cannot hear this, because they only understand lyrics and were not educated to listen to the harmony, rhythm, melody?

    Replies: @LatW

  237. @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @Vishnugupta

    The problem with money stuck in India for Russian oil - and this is allegedly as much as 39 billion dollars in rupees - has been partially solved: India will build 24 cargo ships for Russia with these funds. At the shipyards in Goa, three types of ships will be created: chemical tankers, bulk carriers, ships for transporting cargo in containers (for some reason, LNG tankers are not on the list, although they are now in great demand).



    https://twitter.com/RupprechtDeino/status/1716054225464008995

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    Indian LNG tanker building capacity is very limited with production sold out for the next 5 years.

    Also they are AFAIK Samsung designed and contain a lot of South Korean components further complicating exports to Russia in view if sanctions.

    By when do you think the Chinese will attain tech independence in civilian jet engines and semi conductors?

  238. Great news if it’s true that Putin is thinking of peace talks. The solution to this war is not complicated really. He goes back to the 2021 borders, with perhaps another referendum in the annexed part of Donbas, and Ukraine becomes a neutral state for several decades, perhaps by changing its constitution for full guarantees.

    Everybody happy. He can sell that as a win domestically, Ukraine only loses a small territory that wasn’t loyal anyway and nobody really wanted (much less needed!) Ukraine in NATO for anything, except for a few expansionist lunatics that is fine if are made to feel the only unhappy ones.

    Why isn’t everybody rushing to start the negotiations?

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Mikel

    This war is not about Ukraine, it is about the West pressuring Russia. Unless the negotiations address this bigger picture Russia does not gain at all.

    Russian diplomats might see negotiations as an opportunity to explain this to the West. That way when nuclear WW3 breaks out at least a few more people understand how the West caused this disaster.

    , @German_reader
    @Mikel

    It's too late for that now. Too many dead, and Putin tied his own hands with the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Best possible outcome now is a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. But of course such a situation might not be exactly stable either.

    Replies: @Mikel

    , @Barbarossa
    @Mikel

    Probably for similar reasons that negotiations didn't end WW1 or 2 much earlier. Maximalist thinking and sunk cost fallacy takes over in war.

    , @John Johnson
    @Mikel

    He goes back to the 2021 borders, with perhaps another referendum in the annexed part of Donbas

    Who is going make sure the vote is legitimate and what happens if the mostly women and elderly vote against joining?

    Everybody happy. He can sell that as a win domestically, Ukraine only loses a small territory that wasn’t loyal anyway and nobody really wanted (much less needed!)

    There is a problem with that plan which is that Donbas contains the coal reserves and the nuke plants.

    I've seen estimates of well over 100 billion in value. That is in part what inspired the DPR separatists. They planned on getting rich from the coal. I doubt it would have worked as it would have gone to some Russian oligarch. But part of the rebellion was economic. They're sitting on money.

    Why isn’t everybody rushing to start the negotiations?

    I'd like to see an end to the war but it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to accept the current lines at this point. They might as well wait for the F16s and try to punch a hole with them. Makes sense to try before the winter sets in. I think they get about 20 in a few weeks.

    Replies: @Mikel

    , @LatW
    @Mikel


    He goes back to the 2021 borders, with perhaps another referendum in the annexed part of Donbas
     
    Aha, after they have expelled or killed the indigenous Ukrainian population of Donbas or put them in the basements to be tortured. Let's have a referendum now. How humane and just. Typical...

    Replies: @AP, @Mikel

    , @AP
    @Mikel

    I agree with this, though neutrality would only work with a powerful native deterrent. This is actually achievable - Ukraine can make missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory should Russia try to attack again. But good odds of a neutral Ukraine becoming a nuclear Ukraine - the ultimate deterrent.

    The other option would be NATO as deterrent, and a nuke-free Ukraine. Hell, as part of the deal NATO could even agree not to station certain missiles in Ukraine.

    Either one would work.

    Replies: @Sean

  239. @A123
    @LatW



    The image needs to be, ‘Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas’ leadership — there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,’” the document reads.
     
    This would be funny if it weren’t so insane and crazy and if it wasn’t for all the deaths there.
     
    This part is an accurate reflection of physical realty. "Iranian Hamas unilaterally lost the land" by destroying the fresh water aquifer for Gaza. The aquifer cannot be fixed. Desalinization is unaffordably expensive, energy intensive, and fragile should facilities be used to launch terror rockets.

    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging "assistance of your Muslim brothers" to relocate is conceptually sound.

    Not sure Israel can pull this off
     
    This really is, "Can the international community as a whole pull this off?"

    Short-term / Now, while emotions are high, clearly not. Expulsions will not work. Sending people to an area with no infrastructure will not work. Muslim colonists stuck in Gaza will remain there for a while longer.

    Long-term / What will the reconstruction look like? Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad. However, the problem remains essentially unsolvable. How can 2.5MM live on surface water that can support only a fraction of that?

    Creating a New Muslim Palestine with the "assistance of your Muslim brothers" is a viable option. Helping people relocate to viable Muslim religious lands that have sufficient water resources is a valid option. I previously suggested VOLUNTARY departures out of Gaza would occur if there was a place to go.

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.

    Off loading them on the West seems less than serious. Presumably, this is intended as the proverbial "warning shot across the bow" to nations that are spending money to make the situation worse. Illegal EU backed construction in Area C is an example of such provocation.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @LatW

    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging “assistance of your Muslim brothers” to relocate is conceptually sound.

    I do agree that they are largely responsible for this mess. They need to help clean it up as opposed to wailing for Europe and the West to do it, things have changed now. We live in a different world. Sure, the Pali children should be helped but Hamas leaders / owners / backers knew what they were doing.

    And, by the way, some of them appear to be pathetic mercenaries and not even ideological – in that recent interrogation footage one of them is saying that they were promised 10K and a new apartment for doing the raid. Pathetic!

    This really is, “Can the international community as a whole pull this off?”

    Er… no. There is no obligation for the international community to commit to such a “resettlement” plan. There could be a peace conference eventually, but right now there is a humanitarian catastrophe. Israel is not entitled to us hosting their Arabs. However, Israel should receive some help, since they were attacked so savagely. Well, first there is going to be a war anyway.

    Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad.

    If Hamas are their version of ethno-religious nationalists, then they may be impossible to eradicate. that’s like saying “Ukraine should be de-Nazified”.

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.

    Well, what percentage of Palis really wanted to move voluntarily, as you say (prior to the war). How many Palis wanted to move to Arab states? The issue here is the rigidity of the Arab states to accept them.

    By the way, is Netanyahu truly prepared for this? Can he lead such a huge war while being somewhat unpopular? That’s a risk factor (unless he turns around and shows incredible boldness, engagement with the population, resolve and stamina). He doesn’t appear to be like Zelensky was around whom everyone rallied. The Israeli morale seems good (even if they’re still in shock), but not due to Netanyahu.

    They need to show strength and resolve and the readiness to go far, otherwise they won’t be taken seriously, won’t be respected which will invite more aggression against them eventually. This is the problem.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @LatW


    Israel is not entitled to us hosting their Arabs
     
    Correction: Not just hosting, from what can be understood from these docs, they want countries such as Canada and the US or Greece (!!) to naturalize them? (Poor Greece who have already been burdened so much). Commit to a citizenship path for them from the get go? Wow.

    Replies: @A123

  240. @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    The war is existential for Russia. Ukraine is their thin red line and Crimea is enormously symbolic. The West putting a base in Crimea would be a loud and clear message that we aim to destroy Russian society root and branch.

    That doesn't make any sense.

    There are military bases in the Baltics which are closer to Moscow.

    Is the message:
    1. The Baltics are backed by the West and you cannot invade them for the nth time
    2. We plan on destroying Russian society

    The problem with nuclear brinksmanship is that one incremental step which doesn’t seem hopelessly dangerous actually may cross a threshold and lead to nuclear war.

    Yes and a great reason for Russia to return to its 2021 borders.

    Replies: @QCIC

    Crimea is important to Russian credibility as a nation and a government so this is about sovereignty. The West has been trying to destroy this credibility for hundreds of years and nearly succeeded with the Bolsheviks. The obvious pressure is economic and cultural, but the important military pressure is part of a ‘hybrid war’. Unfortunately this hybrid war against a heavily nuclear-armed adversary is just crazy. Whatever the stupid Western leaders want to do with Russia they need to accomplish non-militarily. This failed so they hope to do it militarily.

    The West doesn’t understand the risks or the stakes involved in the Ukraine project. I wonder if we are closing in on the point where Russia will be pressured to use nuclear weapons preemptively, consequences be dammed, to send a clear signal. The message will not be, “Hey let’s blow everything up and get everyone killed.” The point will be, “The West is pressing Russia to the point of full scale nuclear war. Apparently the Westerners are too stupid to realize this or have some messianic belief that they can win by bluffing. So we (Russia) need to show them what they are dealing with. If we do not act now, at some point soon, it may be too late.”

    Western activities such as blowing up Nordstream, supporting military murders of Russian citizens in Russia, participating in bombing Moscow with drones are HUGE provocations. These are part of a Western-sponsored campaign against Russia in Ukraine and other Russian border countries. The expansion of NATO is a huge foundation for this work. Dropping out of nuclear arms control treaties is a fundamentally stupid message from the West — like some thug shouting “We plan to kick your ass.” Then the West sponsored drone attacks against Engels Air Base which is a major base of nuclear-armed bombers.

    We can argue about the various details and particulars, but the pattern is clear. Maybe Unz readers cannot see it, but the Russian military and diplomatic leadership surely recognize the pattern and its implications for Russia. Apparently the Western planners assumed Russia was too weak to withstand all of the pressure. This is the stupidest aspect of the whole thing because it is backwards. If Russia is weak she is more likely to use nuclear weapons to defend herself. Fortunately Russia is much stronger than mainstream observers realized which bought time to see the errors of our ways and back off.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @QCIC

    I don't see it as any kind of scheme by Western planners". When Mearsheimer predicted such a conflict decades ago probably no one in Washington dreamt a full on invasion and war would result from Ukraine sidling up to the West. Washington likes globalisation with profits for US corporations in conditions of stability and wars are tremendously uncertain; not something America want in relation to a country with essentially equivalent nuclear arsenal to the US's.

    Replies: @QCIC

  241. @Mikel
    Great news if it's true that Putin is thinking of peace talks. The solution to this war is not complicated really. He goes back to the 2021 borders, with perhaps another referendum in the annexed part of Donbas, and Ukraine becomes a neutral state for several decades, perhaps by changing its constitution for full guarantees.

    Everybody happy. He can sell that as a win domestically, Ukraine only loses a small territory that wasn't loyal anyway and nobody really wanted (much less needed!) Ukraine in NATO for anything, except for a few expansionist lunatics that is fine if are made to feel the only unhappy ones.

    Why isn't everybody rushing to start the negotiations?

    Replies: @QCIC, @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @John Johnson, @LatW, @AP

    This war is not about Ukraine, it is about the West pressuring Russia. Unless the negotiations address this bigger picture Russia does not gain at all.

    Russian diplomats might see negotiations as an opportunity to explain this to the West. That way when nuclear WW3 breaks out at least a few more people understand how the West caused this disaster.

  242. @LatW
    @A123


    With a population of 2.5MM conditions cannot reach normal & sustainable. Encouraging “assistance of your Muslim brothers” to relocate is conceptually sound.
     
    I do agree that they are largely responsible for this mess. They need to help clean it up as opposed to wailing for Europe and the West to do it, things have changed now. We live in a different world. Sure, the Pali children should be helped but Hamas leaders / owners / backers knew what they were doing.

    And, by the way, some of them appear to be pathetic mercenaries and not even ideological - in that recent interrogation footage one of them is saying that they were promised 10K and a new apartment for doing the raid. Pathetic!


    This really is, “Can the international community as a whole pull this off?”
     
    Er... no. There is no obligation for the international community to commit to such a "resettlement" plan. There could be a peace conference eventually, but right now there is a humanitarian catastrophe. Israel is not entitled to us hosting their Arabs. However, Israel should receive some help, since they were attacked so savagely. Well, first there is going to be a war anyway.

    Eradicating Hamas makes way for Muslim leadership that will be less bad.
     
    If Hamas are their version of ethno-religious nationalists, then they may be impossible to eradicate. that's like saying "Ukraine should be de-Nazified".

    If already hostile nations VOLUNTARILY assimilate them, rather than opting for a formal Pali state, little is lost. Care would be needed to ensure that receiving nations have a citizenship track in place. No camps that would extend the problem for additional generations.
     
    Well, what percentage of Palis really wanted to move voluntarily, as you say (prior to the war). How many Palis wanted to move to Arab states? The issue here is the rigidity of the Arab states to accept them.

    By the way, is Netanyahu truly prepared for this? Can he lead such a huge war while being somewhat unpopular? That's a risk factor (unless he turns around and shows incredible boldness, engagement with the population, resolve and stamina). He doesn't appear to be like Zelensky was around whom everyone rallied. The Israeli morale seems good (even if they're still in shock), but not due to Netanyahu.

    They need to show strength and resolve and the readiness to go far, otherwise they won't be taken seriously, won't be respected which will invite more aggression against them eventually. This is the problem.

    Replies: @LatW

    Israel is not entitled to us hosting their Arabs

    Correction: Not just hosting, from what can be understood from these docs, they want countries such as Canada and the US or Greece (!!) to naturalize them? (Poor Greece who have already been burdened so much). Commit to a citizenship path for them from the get go? Wow.

    • Replies: @A123
    @LatW



    Off loading them on the West seems less than serious. Presumably, this is intended as the proverbial “warning shot across the bow” to nations that are spending money to make the situation worse. Illegal EU backed construction in Area C is an example of such provocation.
     
    they want countries such as Canada and the US or Greece (!!) to naturalize them? (Poor Greece who have already been burdened so much). Commit to a citizenship path for them from the get go? Wow.
     
    If the EU and Canada help Pali aggression, then is it not unreasonable that they share in the consequences?

    Though, as I indicated previously, this seems more posture rather than plan.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @German_reader, @LatW

  243. @Sean
    @John Johnson


    What We Keep Getting Wrong About Russia
    Triangle 26

    1.6K views
    An educational presentation discussing the material history of the Mosin rifle, and what it tells us about modern Russian military
     
    Already posted the above so I won't repeat.

    As for can the West use sanctions to help Ukraine seriously threaten Russia's ability to continue as a major power, or even trade profitably? Yes, but there are good reason to be chary about doing so. The official policy of Washington , which Biden and Austen have both openly discussed is to make Russia tooo weak for another Ukraine style adventure. But Ukraine cannot eliminate Russia as a threat to the US, indeed and the weaker Russia gets economically and productive capacity through supply chain bottlenecks the more likely it is to panic and be provoked into a direct confrontation with the US. This is why Washington is willing to would but afraid to really strike albeit indirectly :-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlD6_sOcIzA

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “the weaker Russia gets economically and productive capacity through supply chain bottlenecks the more likely it is to panic and be provoked into a direct confrontation with the US”

  244. @Mikel
    Great news if it's true that Putin is thinking of peace talks. The solution to this war is not complicated really. He goes back to the 2021 borders, with perhaps another referendum in the annexed part of Donbas, and Ukraine becomes a neutral state for several decades, perhaps by changing its constitution for full guarantees.

    Everybody happy. He can sell that as a win domestically, Ukraine only loses a small territory that wasn't loyal anyway and nobody really wanted (much less needed!) Ukraine in NATO for anything, except for a few expansionist lunatics that is fine if are made to feel the only unhappy ones.

    Why isn't everybody rushing to start the negotiations?

    Replies: @QCIC, @German_reader, @Barbarossa, @John Johnson, @LatW, @AP

    It’s too late for that now. Too many dead, and Putin tied his own hands with the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Best possible outcome now is a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. But of course such a situation might not be exactly stable either.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @German_reader


    Putin tied his own hands with the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
     
    That he doesn't control and actually agreed to partially withdraw from shortly after the annexation. I think he could be persuaded to forget that charade of a referendum in those regions in exchange for Ukraine's neutrality. But sadly, nobody of importance in the West appears interested in trying to stop this bloodbath diplomatically.

    Replies: @German_reader

  245. @German_reader
    @Mikel

    It's too late for that now. Too many dead, and Putin tied his own hands with the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Best possible outcome now is a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. But of course such a situation might not be exactly stable either.

    Replies: @Mikel

    Putin tied his own hands with the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    That he doesn’t control and actually agreed to partially withdraw from shortly after the annexation. I think he could be persuaded to forget that charade of a referendum in those regions in exchange for Ukraine’s neutrality. But sadly, nobody of importance in the West appears interested in trying to stop this bloodbath diplomatically.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mikel

    He controls parts of the two oblasts and they provide the land bridge to Crimea, which is probably one of the minimum goals of the war for him (after the initial phase when first the attempt at regime change and then the subsequent negotiations had failed). Ukraine doesn't seem to be able to dislodge Russian forces from their positions either, so I don't see what kind of incentive Putin would have for giving up those territories voluntarily...how would that look after tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, including top level officers and generals, have been killed? All the more so since normalization of relations with the West clearly isn't in the cards either, at least as long as Putin is in power; there is simply no trust left between the two sides.
    I agree with you there needs to be a serious attempt at diplomacy, to stop the fighting and prevent this from spiraling into something even worse, like a total collapse of Ukraine and/or a direct NATO-Russia conflict. But one shouldn't hope for too much, the chances for a real peace settlement were missed early in the war, now it can be only about a ceasefire and subsequent conflict management, to re-establish some minimum guardrails (not least about nuclear weapons) in relations between NATO and Russia.

    Replies: @Mikel, @YetAnotherAnon

  246. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @silviosilver

    Your ublock howto works here too until you tube wises up.

    Thank you sir!

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I’ve never had any issue on YouTube using plug and play AdBlock Plus. I’ve honestly always been surprised by that, but am not complaining.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Barbarossa

    Have you used it in the last week? My Ad block stopped working for you tube 5 or 6 days ago.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  247. @Mikel
    Great news if it's true that Putin is