RSS
几天后就是十月革命一百周年了——这场最初的颜色革命终结了一个伟大且迅速现代化的帝国，并将权力交给了一群仇恨俄罗斯的罪犯。
为了纪念这一时刻，接下来的两周我将记录索沃克在几乎所有生活领域的惨败。对社区的强制性触发警告。
我们的
* 不仅是对比特币本身的一个很好的介绍，而且是一种原始的（据我所知）思考它的方式： https://blog.chain.com/a-letter-to-jamie-dimon-de89d417cb80
最后有一个 TL;DR 版本。
*詹姆斯·汤普森（James Thompson）： 世界智商 = 86：550,492 个国家 123 人的测试结果
大卫·贝克尔的数据库链接： https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3c4TxciNeJZWUx5bzBWZ1BuMUk
讨论也值得一读。
* Heiner Rindermann 于 1 年 2018 月 XNUMX 日出版了一本看起来相当有趣的书： 认知资本主义：人力资本与国家福祉
* 皮尤： 在全球范围内，代议制民主和直接民主得到广泛支持 (PDF)
那里有很多有趣的花絮，但我喜欢的一张桌子是左/右对军政府的支持。
基本上正如你所期望的（正确的更支持），除了可以理解的委内瑞拉例外 - 以及不太容易理解的匈牙利例外（除非 你读过 hbd*chick).
*埃米尔·柯克高（Emil Kirkegaard）： 关于该博客：意大利智商、林恩智商、大脑大小和医生
* /r/高吉奇： 俄罗斯文化大区
* 丹尼尔·特雷斯曼 – 2017 – 错误的民主
民主如何摆脱独裁统治？……在大约三分之二的情况下，民主化的发生并不是因为现任精英选择了民主化，而是因为他们在试图阻止民主化的过程中犯了错误，削弱了他们对权力的控制。常见的错误包括：举行选举或发动军事冲突，结果却失败；无视民众骚乱而被推翻；启动有限的、失控的改革；并选择一位秘密民主党人作为领导人。这些错误反映了众所周知的认知偏差，例如过度自信和控制幻觉。
列昂尼德·伯希斯基（Leonid Bershidsky） 写到了.
* 39% 的法国公民 讲奥克西唐语 。
* @WrathOfGnon 的一个关于中世纪城市主义优越性的美丽帖子：
现在是时候讨论传统的城市主义或13世纪城市规划风格了。 我将消除现代都市主义的一些神话。 pic.twitter.com/wUbkEuGy9a
—格农之怒（@wrathofgnon） 2017 年 7 月 7 日
俄罗斯
*露西·科米萨尔： 马格尼茨基法案背后的人比尔布劳德在俄罗斯的税收问题是否推动了制裁？
攻击RT
* 转发： 揭晓：Twitter 如何推动 RT 在 2016 年美国大选上投入巨资; Twitter 向 RT 提供的数百万美元美国大选宣传内容已完整披露
甚至一些俄罗斯反对派，如阿列克谢·科瓦列夫 认为 这是可笑的选择性。
* 转发： 非政府组织公布了 2,300 多名 RT 嘉宾的名字，称他们为“破坏西方民主的有用白痴”
我很高兴看到尼娜·赫鲁晓娃在那里（但不确定“有用”的部分）。
亚历山大·默库里斯（Alexander Mercouris）： RT 的勒索和最新攻击
迈克尔·特雷西 揭露 Twitter 的标准 作为俄罗斯巨魔：
我们采取了类似的广泛方法来定义俄罗斯关联账户的资格。由于没有单一特征可以可靠地确定地理来源或隶属关系，因此我们依赖于许多标准，包括帐户是否在俄罗斯创建、用户是否通过俄罗斯电话运营商或俄罗斯电子邮件地址注册帐户、是否用户的显示名称包含西里尔字符、用户是否经常用俄语发推文，以及用户是否从任何俄语 IP 地址登录（即使是一次）。如果一个账户符合其中一项相关标准，我们就认为该账户与俄罗斯有关。
提防 西里尔专制!
Russiagate
*亚历山大·默库里斯（Alexander Mercouris）： 罗伯特·穆勒应该辞职
换句话说，联邦调查局没有通过自己的调查得出俄罗斯干预总统选举的嫌疑，而是选择依赖两名私人承包商——CrowdStrike和克里斯托弗·斯蒂尔——的工作，这两个承包商都是由民主党全国委员会找到并支付费用的。其中一位——克里斯托弗·斯蒂尔——随后被民主党全国委员会转交给联邦调查局，以便他们也能向他支付报酬。
这使得联邦调查局看起来更像是民主党和民主党全国委员会的帮凶，而不是一个公正客观的警察机构。
* 但观念是另一回事.
* 有些东西会进一步出现 证明 民主党全国委员会与希拉里勾结，为她提供了提名。
真正的民主党人：唐娜·巴西尔 被俄罗斯骗了。普京是上帝，等等。
* ROGPR 播客主编 Kirill Nesterov 的最新视频。
（它是俄语的，但大部分只是由来自盎格鲁推特的俄罗斯最“强大”的翻译组成）。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU-WZzXmmXg
* 疯狂不包含在左派中：
* 每日来电者： 越来越多的证据表明俄罗斯利用“抵抗运动”来对抗斯托克分裂
曼哈顿恐怖袭击的有力应对
其他名称
* 保罗罗宾逊： 悲伤之墙 （普京论斯大林）
* 帕特里克·阿姆斯特朗： 我如何成为克里姆林宫巨魔
* 车臣人 组织队列 在莫斯科，新款 iPhone 的第一名售价为 300,000 兰特（5,000 美元）。几百个处女 克里克斯 – 他们的“创造力”理念包括成为他们的第一人 图索夫卡 为了得到一部新 iPhone——排队几个小时……结果一群车臣乍得人在最后一刻把他们推到一边，抢购了所有 iPhone，并在几分钟内将它们放在俄罗斯 eBay 上出售。
*每日野兽： 她在《暴动小猫》里。他是极右派：玛丽亚·阿廖希纳和德米特里·恩特奥如何坠入爱河
怎么都比暮光之城好。
*平权行动克里姆林宫学家 特雷尔·斯塔尔“乌克兰人和黑人在反抗霸权方面有着共同的纽带，无论是来自美国还是俄罗斯的“白人”。= 模因反应.
地狱
与此同时，在实际的普特勒帝国……
* 莫斯科当局希望在市中心建立一座伊斯兰卡里莫夫纪念碑，这位中亚独裁者拆除了该国所有的二战纪念碑。
让情况变得更加“更好”的是，乌兹别克人自己正在慢慢废除卡里莫夫的遗产，他们的新总统正在慢慢走向自由主义改革，并批评他的前任的滥用职权。因此，即使作为地缘政治马屁精，它也失败了。
几乎可以肯定的是，反对这一点的请愿毫无意义： https://www.change.org/p/владимир-путин-против-установки-в-москве-памятника-президенту-узбекистана-исламу-каримову
* 鞑靼斯坦领导人 含蓄地威胁 如果学校中的鞑靼语教学成为非强制性的，普京的得票率就会很低（“我们做到了所有选举过程都由我们学校的校长完成“）。
依靠州内少数族裔州来让你在选举中获得 10% 的支持率带来的问题……
* 与此同时，鞑靼人军事学院院长的儿子（同时也是伪科学组织成员） 雷恩）因加入伊斯兰国两年而在塔吉克斯坦被捕。此前，在他父亲的指导下在上述军事学院（裙带关系）完成博士学位后，他负责确保军事研发通信的安全，并拥有适当的高级安全许可。说军事学院 致KP记者 请求评论：“我们不会说什么，导演不在，我们也不知道他什么时候会来。”
世界
* @tcjfs： 亨廷顿认为，“蓝与灰”的南部邦联纪念碑是在 1920 年建造的，目的是促进美国统一的民族和解
似乎与苏联庆祝胜利日类似：9年后第一次莫斯科1945月1965日阅兵是在1985年；然后1990年、1995年、XNUMX年成为每年一度的活动。
* 监护人： 随着经济繁荣，罗马尼亚摆脱了欧洲穷人的标签.
非凡的文化连续性：2,000年前的陆地长城，现在是网络空间和公海上的长城。
*奥萨马·本·拉登 曾经是一名游戏玩家，就像 20 世纪所有其他伟人一样。
顺便说一句，纳瓦尔尼是 安慰农民，同时证明他并不注定伟大。
文化大战
只听说过这个人 感谢斯潘德雷尔。听起来像是一个大现象。
* #ItsOkayToBeWhite 是 绝妙的策略。 /pol/ 继续交付。
*弗朗西斯·李： 为什么我开始害怕我的社会正义活动家同胞
* 约翰德比郡： Geezers不在乎！ 马克·法伯（Marc Faber）对抗反种族主义道德恐慌
杰弗里·米勒 塔勒布频道: 要了解现在，请阅读有关我们的生物和文化历史的好书以及有关未来的科幻小说。 “新闻”是一种干扰。
*梅丽莎·梅萨罗斯： Buzzfeed 的男作家透露有丹睾丸激素严重低下
* 色情成瘾的纳粹分子用斧头自残。对 nofap 的模范承诺。
*埃利泽·尤德科夫斯基的奋斗：
https://twitter.com/0xa59a2d/status/923236057734402048
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It was probably not a good strategy “The Prosecutor’s office of Tatarstan has outlawed mandatory teaching of Tatar language,” https://vz.ru/society/2017/11/5/117372.html
Well this is encouraging.
回复：@Anon
According to the old story of Origen, at least as it’s been told, the bomb Nazi only had a lukewarm commitment to no fap.
签。
And if this fails, people should do what others did to the Mannerheim plaque in SPB.
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland's newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I'm not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
Replies: @melanf, @Anon, @Daniel Chieh, @Not Raul
A lot of information there, but surely the most important long term story here is the IQ of the word, this along with the “most important graph” surely will be what shapes future history. Many white nationalists will say how the jewish dominated over class will lord over the third world masses in the future, but this is not entirely certain, the Donna Brazile, Mugabe, Zuma, etc, types will likely want to take power for themselves if they can be kept in check by the Soros, Zuckerberg, Schumer types is not guaranteed.
I think it's pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it's way out. Personally, I think that the power of that elite has been overestimated, but it did exist and still does, even though it is now in terminal decline.
I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews, but they won't even exist in 50 years so they aren't worth getting upset about.
That said, it seems impossible that any type of mud elite would take their place. Rather it will still be whites just like it is in Latin America with Asians and high caste muds being absorbed into the power structure.
...
Donna Brazile is one of the few liberals I have always liked. I don't agree with her politics but she seems cool.
...
I don't get the comment at the top, is the guy saying that Anatoly is Jewish 因为 Anatoly is pro white? Or was the comment talking about somebody else? I'm not following.
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing. They are tied with Paleocons for the most disgusting people on earth.
回复：@ussr andy、@Anon
Arnold on traditional urbanism. He suggests it’s for weak manlets:
Any insights on Maltsev? I’m gussing it is insignificant but there is no real information in MSM reports.
As a pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian nationalist, Maltsev & Co. break a whole bunch of the rules Russian nationalists (specifically, #2-4) need to follow to avoid getting knocked on the head.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/country-282/
And, needless to say, the Ukrainophilia and NATO worship doesn't do him much good from a popularity standpoint. Attendance at this year's Russian March was just 400 from what I've read. The old Russian Marches before they got suppressed by Putler/reformatted into "normie" patriotically themed rallies typically garnered 10,000 attendees.
They removed a monument to Mannerheim in SPB a while back, after a petition. So maybe it isn’t futile.
编辑：
Reading further, it seems the petition was less effective than some axes.
回复：@Anatoly Karlin
As a pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian nationalist, Maltsev & Co. break a whole bunch of the rules Russian nationalists (specifically, #2-4) need to follow to avoid getting knocked on the head.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/country-282/
And, needless to say, the Ukrainophilia and NATO worship doesn’t do him much good from a popularity standpoint. Attendance at this year’s Russian March was just 400 from what I’ve read. The old Russian Marches before they got suppressed by Putler/reformatted into “normie” patriotically themed rallies typically garnered 10,000 attendees.
回复：@Anatoly Karlin
Well this is encouraging.
Leader of Tartarstan tried to hard without being a Chad like Kadyrov.
Well this is encouraging.
回复：@Anon
Leader of Tartarstan tried to hard without being a Chad like Kadyrov.
Medieval/traditional urbanism is an expression of Neolithic manlet culture and civilization. Small, compact, dense settlements built around cathedrals and churches – communal worship sites devoted to Neolithic solar, grain, fertility cults. Cathedrals and churches resemble the older Neolithic structures like Newgrange, whose cross section resembles cathedral cross sections and which aligns with the sun on the winter solstice around the Christmas season.
http://www.uhta24.com/foto/_original_/29541.jpg
http://cs617317.vk.me/v617317965/c44c/ZYP3TycTwRo.jpg
http://img-2008-05.photosight.ru/30/2697599.jpg
http://visitola.ru/img/7.jpg
https://img.lookmytrips.com/images/look7chc/image-585b9dafff936701c8028d8c-585cf1855b66f-1c5psc5.jpg
回复：@German_reader
回复：@Greasy William
I think it’s pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it’s way out. Personally, I think that the power of that elite has been overestimated, but it did exist and still does, even though it is now in terminal decline.
I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews, but they won’t even exist in 50 years so they aren’t worth getting upset about.
That said, it seems impossible that any type of mud elite would take their place. Rather it will still be whites just like it is in Latin America with Asians and high caste muds being absorbed into the power structure.
...
Donna Brazile is one of the few liberals I have always liked. I don’t agree with her politics but she seems cool.
...
I don’t get the comment at the top, is the guy saying that Anatoly is Jewish 因为 Anatoly is pro white? Or was the comment talking about somebody else? I’m not following.
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing. They are tied with Paleocons for the most disgusting people on earth.
>I think it’s pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it’s way out. (...)
>I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews
they aren't disliked because they won't FOAD, they're disliked because they're still in that paranoid Tevye the Dairyman mode [hoof sounds intensify] and have no "noblesse oblige" wrt the ruled.
>but they won’t even exist in 50 years
why, what would happen to them?
回复：@notanon
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing.
Anatoly's blog is pretty much the only English language pro-Russian resource that isn't infected by Eurasianism in any way so it's not surprising.
“It will be the centenary of the October Revolution in a couple of days – the original color revolution that finished off a great and rapidly modernizing empire and handed power to a gang of Russia-hating criminals.”
Actually, the Bolshevik Revolution finished off the Russian Provisional Government. Indeed, the Tsarist Russian regime fell in February 1917–as in, over half a year earlier.
As for Tsarist Russia, I really don’t know if I would consider it to be great. After all, based on your data (from a post several years ago), Tsarist Russia appears to have been doing worse in terms of its per capita GDP than Portugal was doing. In other words, Tsarist Russia had potential, but its trajectory wasn’t too different from that of Southern European countries. (However, its trajectory was much better than that of Bolshevik Russia.)
Also, in regards to Tsarist Russia, as an American, I mostly remember it for selling us Alaska and for foolishly mistreating its own Jewish population and thus causing many of them to come over here. Indeed, Tsarist Russia certainly helped strengthen the U.S.! 🙂
Yes, I'm aware of that - I said "an" empire, not "The" Empire. There was a high degree of continuity between the Empire and the period of the Provisional Government.
This is probably the post in question: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-soviet-economy-charting-failure/
Imperial Russia tracked but did not lag Portugal, but this is unlikely to have continued, since the latter was much slower at accumulating human capital (Portugal was 68% illiterate in 1930 and still 40% illiterate in 1960, whereas the USSR passed the 50% point in 1925 (close to 60% amongst ethnic Russians) - this being just a few years after the end of the Civil War, this was almost entirely a function of Tsarist-era investments - and was nearly universal by 1959).
So actually, under normal conditions, it is very likely that Russia would have developed far faster than Portugal during the 1930-1970 period (instead of merely matching it), and would not have stagnated and even fallen behind Portugal during the 1970-1990 period.
doh – whenever someone calls me a Russian bot i reply with a random sentence translated into Russian with google translate – gonna be renditioned to gitmo 🙁
The shooting in Texas today was another Antifa op, just like the one in Las Vegas. The media and the FBI are covering it up.
Oh yeah, another (((Russian nationalist))) that has no clue about Russian history.
The original color revolution that handed power to a gang of criminals was the February Revolution.
The October Revolution was a neocon counter-insurgency. Still shit, but a lot less stinky compared to the absolute shitshow of being ruled by the February gang of homosexual deviants.
But anyways, back to the topic: anytime a (((Russian nationalist))) speaks about ‘HBD’ and ‘muh white race’ it’s 时刻 a dogwhistle about contracting Russia until it’s a small European country occupying a strip of land between Moscow and St.Pete. The idea is that Russia needs to somehow become a nice, comfortably-sized laid-back irrelevant urbanist place, a slightly more eastern Czechia.
Needless to say, despite ‘muh white race’ this is completely antithetical to Russian interests.
Russia needs to expand, not contract.
can't Russia expand (or not-contract) 和 be doing something about her human capital?
Replies: @anonymous coward, @5371
1. It's called a summary. Formally the Empire ended in February, but the real break was in November.
3. It is good to argue with oneself.2. Speaking of "deviants." Just a note that homosexuality was legalized in the early USSR. (Not that this vastly concerns me as it does you).
回复：@Anon
好吧，现在我是黑人了，我从哪里得到我的四十英亩土地和我的骡子呢？
I think it's pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it's way out. Personally, I think that the power of that elite has been overestimated, but it did exist and still does, even though it is now in terminal decline.
I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews, but they won't even exist in 50 years so they aren't worth getting upset about.
That said, it seems impossible that any type of mud elite would take their place. Rather it will still be whites just like it is in Latin America with Asians and high caste muds being absorbed into the power structure.
...
Donna Brazile is one of the few liberals I have always liked. I don't agree with her politics but she seems cool.
...
I don't get the comment at the top, is the guy saying that Anatoly is Jewish 因为 Anatoly is pro white? Or was the comment talking about somebody else? I'm not following.
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing. They are tied with Paleocons for the most disgusting people on earth.
回复：@ussr andy、@Anon
>I think it’s pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it’s way out. (…)
>I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews
they aren’t disliked because they won’t FOAD, they’re disliked because they’re still in that paranoid Tevye the Dairyman mode [hoof sounds intensify] and have no “noblesse oblige” wrt the ruled.
>but they won’t even exist in 50 years
why, what would happen to them?
The original color revolution that handed power to a gang of criminals was the February Revolution.
The October Revolution was a neocon counter-insurgency. Still shit, but a lot less stinky compared to the absolute shitshow of being ruled by the February gang of homosexual deviants.
But anyways, back to the topic: anytime a (((Russian nationalist))) speaks about 'HBD' and 'muh white race' it's 时刻 a dogwhistle about contracting Russia until it's a small European country occupying a strip of land between Moscow and St.Pete. The idea is that Russia needs to somehow become a nice, comfortably-sized laid-back irrelevant urbanist place, a slightly more eastern Czechia.
Needless to say, despite 'muh white race' this is completely antithetical to Russian interests.
Russia needs to expand, not contract.
回复：@ussr andy，@Anatoly Karlin
can’t Russia expand (or not-contract) 和 be doing something about her human capital?
回复：@5371，@ussr andy
How did you manage to reply at 5.14 am GMT to a comment posted at 5.51 am GMT?
AK: The timestamp/timezone system is messed up. I have made Ron Unz aware.
回复：@melanf
An interesting piece of urbanism demonstrated in Yoshkar-Ola (provincial town in Russia, on the border of Europe and Siberia), local crazy Governor Leonid il Magnifico
They built a copy of Bruges there???
Is that a recent project?
回复：@melanf
http://www.uhta24.com/foto/_original_/29541.jpg
http://cs617317.vk.me/v617317965/c44c/ZYP3TycTwRo.jpg
http://img-2008-05.photosight.ru/30/2697599.jpg
http://visitola.ru/img/7.jpg
https://img.lookmytrips.com/images/look7chc/image-585b9dafff936701c8028d8c-585cf1855b66f-1c5psc5.jpg
回复：@German_reader
They built a copy of Bruges there???
Is that a recent project?
According to urban legends, a Tibetan Lama told the local governors that he was the reincarnation of Lorenzo de ' Medici. Since then, the Governor has a crooked mind and began to build up the city so that's quaint houses (until he was put in jail for embezzlement)
http://s008.radikal.ru/i304/1711/d5/4c8b2809f5d7.jpg
http://s019.radikal.ru/i616/1711/6c/b34470b833ac.jpg
回复：@German_reader
can't Russia expand (or not-contract) 和 be doing something about her human capital?
Replies: @anonymous coward, @5371
Who says she isn’t? As a person who actually lives in Russia and has a child in elementary school, let me tell you that the difference w.r.t “human capital” between now and Soviet times is striking. (The comparison is 不能 in favor for the Soviet system.)
To judge by its dictionary definition, "human capital" seems to have remarkably little to do with the qualities one would look for in those who live alongside him.
回复：@ussr andy
socialism was more tolerant of human failings, like showing up drunk for work.
>As a person who actually lives in Russia and has a child in elementary school (...) between now and Soviet times
unless it's a grandkid or you had it at like 50, - a reminder that "soviet times" were 27 years ago.
回复：@匿名co夫
can't Russia expand (or not-contract) 和 be doing something about her human capital?
Replies: @anonymous coward, @5371
How did you manage to reply at 5.14 am GMT to a comment posted at 5.51 am GMT?
AK: The timestamp/timezone system is messed up. I have made Ron Unz aware.
Actually, the Bolshevik Revolution finished off the Russian Provisional Government. Indeed, the Tsarist Russian regime fell in February 1917--as in, over half a year earlier.
As for Tsarist Russia, I really don't know if I would consider it to be great. After all, based on your data (from a post several years ago), Tsarist Russia appears to have been doing worse in terms of its per capita GDP than Portugal was doing. In other words, Tsarist Russia had potential, but its trajectory wasn't too different from that of Southern European countries. (However, its trajectory was much better than that of Bolshevik Russia.)
Also, in regards to Tsarist Russia, as an American, I mostly remember it for selling us Alaska and for foolishly mistreating its own Jewish population and thus causing many of them to come over here. Indeed, Tsarist Russia certainly helped strengthen the U.S.! :)
回复：@Anatoly Karlin
Yes, I’m aware of that – I said “an” empire, not “The” Empire. There was a high degree of continuity between the Empire and the period of the Provisional Government.
This is probably the post in question: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-soviet-economy-charting-failure/
Imperial Russia tracked but did not lag Portugal, but this is unlikely to have continued, since the latter was much slower at accumulating human capital (Portugal was 68% illiterate in 1930 and still 40% illiterate in 1960, whereas the USSR passed the 50% point in 1925 (close to 60% amongst ethnic Russians) – this being just a few years after the end of the Civil War, this was almost entirely a function of Tsarist-era investments – and was nearly universal by 1959).
So actually, under normal conditions, it is very likely that Russia would have developed far faster than Portugal during the 1930-1970 period (instead of merely matching it), and would not have stagnated and even fallen behind Portugal during the 1970-1990 period.
The original color revolution that handed power to a gang of criminals was the February Revolution.
The October Revolution was a neocon counter-insurgency. Still shit, but a lot less stinky compared to the absolute shitshow of being ruled by the February gang of homosexual deviants.
But anyways, back to the topic: anytime a (((Russian nationalist))) speaks about 'HBD' and 'muh white race' it's 时刻 a dogwhistle about contracting Russia until it's a small European country occupying a strip of land between Moscow and St.Pete. The idea is that Russia needs to somehow become a nice, comfortably-sized laid-back irrelevant urbanist place, a slightly more eastern Czechia.
Needless to say, despite 'muh white race' this is completely antithetical to Russian interests.
Russia needs to expand, not contract.
回复：@ussr andy，@Anatoly Karlin
1. It’s called a summary. Formally the Empire ended in February, but the real break was in November.
2. Speaking of “deviants.” Just a note that homosexuality was legalized in the early USSR. (Not that this vastly concerns me as it does you).
3. It is good to argue with oneself.
1. It's called a summary. Formally the Empire ended in February, but the real break was in November.
3. It is good to argue with oneself.2. Speaking of "deviants." Just a note that homosexuality was legalized in the early USSR. (Not that this vastly concerns me as it does you).
回复：@Anon
And then banned again by the Chad Stalin.
Since this is an open thread, does anyone have any thoughts about the 明德 争议？
回复：@5371，@ussr andy
To judge by its dictionary definition, “human capital” seems to have remarkably little to do with the qualities one would look for in those who live alongside him.
I heard the figure 5 million employed as drivers or security guards. that's what, every 10th-15th male of working age?
everything is better, ceteris paribus etc, with a high-IQ population, witness South Korea.
besides, a good system runs smoothly even with non-perfect people, who aren't paragons of Aristotelian virtue, running it.
an impression I have from social media (not a font of wisdom to begin with, but still) is Russians are full of.... misconceptions about things, and they don't really get along with each other.
回复：@匿名co夫
Re: that image on top. You should’ve included your statement that prompted my question.
I think it's pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it's way out. Personally, I think that the power of that elite has been overestimated, but it did exist and still does, even though it is now in terminal decline.
I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews, but they won't even exist in 50 years so they aren't worth getting upset about.
That said, it seems impossible that any type of mud elite would take their place. Rather it will still be whites just like it is in Latin America with Asians and high caste muds being absorbed into the power structure.
...
Donna Brazile is one of the few liberals I have always liked. I don't agree with her politics but she seems cool.
...
I don't get the comment at the top, is the guy saying that Anatoly is Jewish 因为 Anatoly is pro white? Or was the comment talking about somebody else? I'm not following.
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing. They are tied with Paleocons for the most disgusting people on earth.
回复：@ussr andy、@Anon
Western Russophiles are really into the whole Eurasian thing.
Anatoly’s blog is pretty much the only English language pro-Russian resource that isn’t infected by Eurasianism in any way so it’s not surprising.
To judge by its dictionary definition, "human capital" seems to have remarkably little to do with the qualities one would look for in those who live alongside him.
回复：@ussr andy
I heard the figure 5 million employed as drivers or security guards. that’s what, every 10th-15th male of working age?
everything is better, ceteris paribus etc, with a high-IQ population, witness South Korea.
besides, a good system runs smoothly even with non-perfect people, who aren’t paragons of Aristotelian virtue, running it.
an impression I have from social media (not a font of wisdom to begin with, but still) is Russians are full of…. misconceptions about things, and they don’t really get along with each other.
回复：@5371，@ussr andy
socialism was more tolerant of human failings, like showing up drunk for work.
>As a person who actually lives in Russia and has a child in elementary school (…) between now and Soviet times
unless it’s a grandkid or you had it at like 50, – a reminder that “soviet times” were 27 years ago.
They built a copy of Bruges there???
Is that a recent project?
回复：@melanf
This is not a copy, but the styling. Built in 2000-2010.
According to urban legends, a Tibetan Lama told the local governors that he was the reincarnation of Lorenzo de ‘ Medici. Since then, the Governor has a crooked mind and began to build up the city so that’s quaint houses (until he was put in jail for embezzlement)
According to what's on the net in English they still have a substantial number of indigenous pagans there...interesting.
回复：@melanf
I recently learned there is actually such a thing as Arab Communists.
That’s what Communism was – a worldwide civic society on top of existing societies, like the “ummah.”
A woman could walk with a pot of gold on her head all the way from Vladivostok to Prague, and everyone got along and had instant community and instant common ground based on shared hatred of the exploiters.
Yudkowski is an idiot.
Here he is bragging about how brilliant he is, essentially claiming to have independently discovered Bayesian statistics
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/
He’s oblivious to the fact that what he actually did was this:
1. Got a simple math problem wrong
2. Refused to admit that he was wrong
3. Claimed that using Bayes’ Theorem would give a different, but even more correct answer (It doesn’t. Using the first method and using Bayes’ Theorem both give the same answer: 1/3)
4. Used the fact that he got a different (though actually wrong) answer as proof that he is better at statistics than pretty much everyone else on Earth.
Bayes’ Theorem is a big part of his philosophy. He can’t even use it properly in a very simple case. Essentially, he can’t even do middle school level algebra.
How's his cult going?
回复：@Not Raul
I can’t be bothered to read what Yudkowsky wrote, but the problem he is discussing there is an interesting problem of interpretation, different interpretations do give different correct answers, and ones personal epistemological preferences probably will influence which interpretation seems most natural.
It would be interesting to do a survey here. The classic version goes as follows:
Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?
Actually, there are two possible correct answers, depending on whether you think the question is “How likely is a two-child family with at least one boy to be a two-boy family?” or whether you think the question is “Now that I know a particular two-child family has at least one boy, what kind of odds would I be willing to give that this is a two-boy family?” If you are of a frequentist persuasion, then the first interpretation might occur to you more naturally, while if you are of a Bayesian persuasion, then the second interpretation might come more easily. But so long as you are clear about how you interpret the question, the answer should be independent of your persuasion.
When I first encountered the question, I much prefered the second interpretation and so found 1/3 a rather bizarre answer until I realized others were favoring the first interpretation.
For those interested, the Wikipedia article has an extensive discussion:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
回复：@Not Raul
According to urban legends, a Tibetan Lama told the local governors that he was the reincarnation of Lorenzo de ' Medici. Since then, the Governor has a crooked mind and began to build up the city so that's quaint houses (until he was put in jail for embezzlement)
http://s008.radikal.ru/i304/1711/d5/4c8b2809f5d7.jpg
http://s019.radikal.ru/i616/1711/6c/b34470b833ac.jpg
回复：@German_reader
🙂 But at least it had some positive effect, it actually looks rather nice.
According to what’s on the net in English they still have a substantial number of indigenous pagans there…interesting.
http://photos.wikimapia.org/p/00/02/21/32/74_big.jpg
>I think it’s pretty obvious to anybody that the Jewish elite that has and has had so much influence in 20th century America is on it’s way out. (...)
>I can understand why somebody would dislike American Jews
they aren't disliked because they won't FOAD, they're disliked because they're still in that paranoid Tevye the Dairyman mode [hoof sounds intensify] and have no "noblesse oblige" wrt the ruled.
>but they won’t even exist in 50 years
why, what would happen to them?
回复：@notanon
the banking mafia have already begun their move to east Asia.
American Jewry is a walking corpse. Look at the all the prominent American Jews: they are all 60 or older. The next generation of American Jews consists of guys like Ezra Klein and Mathew Yglesias, hardly elite material. Pretty much every non religious Jews under 40 marries out.
I suspect that when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
Replies: @German_reader, @neutral, @notanon, @Anon
it wasn't all bad.
Basically, it's collective Carl Sagan vs collective Deepak Chopra now.
According to what's on the net in English they still have a substantial number of indigenous pagans there...interesting.
回复：@melanf
It is also curious that the Communists accused the Governor that he disfigured the beautiful and harmonious image of the socialist Yoshkar-Ola. This socialist Yoshkar-Ola (the place where after 2000 was built palaces and castles)
Here he is bragging about how brilliant he is, essentially claiming to have independently discovered Bayesian statistics
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/
He's oblivious to the fact that what he actually did was this:
1. Got a simple math problem wrong
2. Refused to admit that he was wrong
3. Claimed that using Bayes' Theorem would give a different, but even more correct answer (It doesn't. Using the first method and using Bayes' Theorem both give the same answer: 1/3)
4. Used the fact that he got a different (though actually wrong) answer as proof that he is better at statistics than pretty much everyone else on Earth.
Bayes' Theorem is a big part of his philosophy. He can't even use it properly in a very simple case. Essentially, he can't even do middle school level algebra.
Replies: @DFH, @The Big Red Scary
How’s his cult going?
I probably don't know any more than you do about the status of his cult.
I don't think that it has grown much over the past few years. The Alexa rank of LessWrong doesn't seem to be improving. Unz.com gets about 15x as much traffic as LessWrong.
How's his cult going?
回复：@Not Raul
I probably don’t know any more than you do about the status of his cult.
I don’t think that it has grown much over the past few years. The Alexa rank of LessWrong doesn’t seem to be improving. Unz.com gets about 15x as much traffic as LessWrong.
Here he is bragging about how brilliant he is, essentially claiming to have independently discovered Bayesian statistics
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/
He's oblivious to the fact that what he actually did was this:
1. Got a simple math problem wrong
2. Refused to admit that he was wrong
3. Claimed that using Bayes' Theorem would give a different, but even more correct answer (It doesn't. Using the first method and using Bayes' Theorem both give the same answer: 1/3)
4. Used the fact that he got a different (though actually wrong) answer as proof that he is better at statistics than pretty much everyone else on Earth.
Bayes' Theorem is a big part of his philosophy. He can't even use it properly in a very simple case. Essentially, he can't even do middle school level algebra.
Replies: @DFH, @The Big Red Scary
I can’t be bothered to read what Yudkowsky wrote, but the problem he is discussing there is an interesting problem of interpretation, different interpretations do give different correct answers, and ones personal epistemological preferences probably will influence which interpretation seems most natural.
It would be interesting to do a survey here. The classic version goes as follows:
Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?
Actually, there are two possible correct answers, depending on whether you think the question is “How likely is a two-child family with at least one boy to be a two-boy family?” or whether you think the question is “Now that I know a particular two-child family has at least one boy, what kind of odds would I be willing to give that this is a two-boy family?” If you are of a frequentist persuasion, then the first interpretation might occur to you more naturally, while if you are of a Bayesian persuasion, then the second interpretation might come more easily. But so long as you are clear about how you interpret the question, the answer should be independent of your persuasion.
When I first encountered the question, I much prefered the second interpretation and so found 1/3 a rather bizarre answer until I realized others were favoring the first interpretation.
For those interested, the Wikipedia article has an extensive discussion:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Math isn't a popularity contest.
I'll show how Bayes' Theorem also gives 1/3:
We want to find
P(Both are boys|at least 1 twin is a boy)
1. P(at least 1 boy|Both are boys) = 1
2. P(at least 1 boy) = 3/4
3. P(Both boys) = 1/4
(1 x 1/4) / (3/4) = 1/3
回复：@The Big Red Scary
I suspect that when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
Replies: @iffen, @ussr andy
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
They might concentrate on genealogical studies to find out who's got Jewish ancestors and/or is supposedly a crypto-Jew...somewhat like in early modern Spain/Portugal, or today among Turkish antisemites with their theories about the Dönmeh.
回复：@Randal
go back to fun stuff like looking at boobs and playing vidya games
Arabs are Semites too and Gulf Arabs are as dangerous as rich Jews.
I suspect that when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
Replies: @iffen, @ussr andy
“…for you might just get it.”
it wasn’t all bad.
Basically, it’s collective Carl Sagan vs collective Deepak Chopra now.
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
Replies: @German_reader, @neutral, @notanon, @Anon
They might concentrate on genealogical studies to find out who’s got Jewish ancestors and/or is supposedly a crypto-Jew…somewhat like in early modern Spain/Portugal, or today among Turkish antisemites with their theories about the Dönmeh.
Here's a great "sign of the times" piece from DW. When I was growing up in C20th Cold War Britain, the encouragement of children to snitch on family and friends for political crimes, and their exhortation to do so by propaganda news stories idolising the activities of the snitches and the rewards given to them, was widely portrayed as one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies - the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today's Germany:
Germany: Anti-Semitism in classroom prompts student to report classmates
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen at this site will find such stories exciting and promising signs for the future in their own countries.
(I don't present this as evidence of a uniquely German degradation, by the way. I have no illusions that this could not happen in today's Britain, mutatis mutandis.)
回复：@reiner Tor、@German_reader、@iffen
“To mark the occasion, the next two weeks I will be documenting the dismal failure of sovok across almost virtually all spheres of life. Obligatory trigger warning for commies.”
Glossy’s lucky he hasn’t been here in months.
Glossy had a meltdown around July and presumably isn't returning anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/881660958019604481
(Personally I found the passive-aggressive Likes from Nina Byzantina the most amusing part).
Anyhow, in a way it's also rather liberating, fewer incentives to pretend to like the USSR. Probably wasn't sustainable, either. Ironically I've grown (even more) disillusioned with the USSR and socialist ideas in general since returning to Russia.
回复：@匿名co夫，@ reiner Tor
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
Replies: @German_reader, @neutral, @notanon, @Anon
You are under the impression that white nationalists are anti jew as if it is some kind of hobby.
Glossy's lucky he hasn't been here in months.
回复：@Anatoly Karlin
Glossy had a meltdown around July and presumably isn’t returning anytime soon.
(Personally I found the passive-aggressive Likes from Nina Byzantina the most amusing part).
Anyhow, in a way it’s also rather liberating, fewer incentives to pretend to like the USSR. Probably wasn’t sustainable, either. Ironically I’ve grown (even more) disillusioned with the USSR and socialist ideas in general since returning to Russia.
I can’t be bothered to read what Yudkowsky wrote, but the problem he is discussing there is an interesting problem of interpretation, different interpretations do give different correct answers, and ones personal epistemological preferences probably will influence which interpretation seems most natural.
It would be interesting to do a survey here. The classic version goes as follows:
Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?
Actually, there are two possible correct answers, depending on whether you think the question is “How likely is a two-child family with at least one boy to be a two-boy family?” or whether you think the question is “Now that I know a particular two-child family has at least one boy, what kind of odds would I be willing to give that this is a two-boy family?” If you are of a frequentist persuasion, then the first interpretation might occur to you more naturally, while if you are of a Bayesian persuasion, then the second interpretation might come more easily. But so long as you are clear about how you interpret the question, the answer should be independent of your persuasion.
When I first encountered the question, I much prefered the second interpretation and so found 1/3 a rather bizarre answer until I realized others were favoring the first interpretation.
For those interested, the Wikipedia article has an extensive discussion:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
回复：@Not Raul
Math isn’t a popularity contest.
I’ll show how Bayes’ Theorem also gives 1/3:
We want to find
P(Both are boys|at least 1 twin is a boy)
1. P(at least 1 boy|Both are boys) = 1
2. P(at least 1 boy) = 3/4
3. P(Both boys) = 1/4
(1 x 1/4) / (3/4) = 1/3
Suppose I move to a new neighborhood, and I know that the neighbor has two children. While moving in, I see one boy playing in the neighbor’s yard (and have good reason to believe that the boy belongs to the neighbors).
P(there are two boys)=1/4
P(seen one boy)=1/2
P(seen one boy|there are two boys)=1
P(there are two boys|seen one boy)=1*((1/4)/(1/2))=1/2.
Arithmetic isn’t a popularity contest. Interpretation of an ambiguous statement is. Depending on what information you are trying to obtain, one or the other interpretation is more relevant.
回复：@Not Raul
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
Replies: @German_reader, @neutral, @notanon, @Anon
go back to fun stuff like looking at boobs and playing vidya games
Math isn't a popularity contest.
I'll show how Bayes' Theorem also gives 1/3:
We want to find
P(Both are boys|at least 1 twin is a boy)
1. P(at least 1 boy|Both are boys) = 1
2. P(at least 1 boy) = 3/4
3. P(Both boys) = 1/4
(1 x 1/4) / (3/4) = 1/3
回复：@The Big Red Scary
Suppose I move to a new neighborhood, and I know that the neighbor has two children. While moving in, I see one boy playing in the neighbor’s yard (and have good reason to believe that the boy belongs to the neighbors).
P(there are two boys)=1/4
P(seen one boy)=1/2
P(seen one boy|there are two boys)=1
P(there are two boys|seen one boy)=1*((1/4)/(1/2))=1/2.
Arithmetic isn’t a popularity contest. Interpretation of an ambiguous statement is. Depending on what information you are trying to obtain, one or the other interpretation is more relevant.
谢谢。
Now I see why you got the wrong answer.
P(there is one boy) = 1/2
But that is irrelevant.
P(there is at least 1 boy) = 3/4
The denominator to use in Bayes' Theorem is 3/4, not 1/2.
The issue isn't your "interpretation". You made a mistake.
回复：@The Big Red Scary
socialism was more tolerant of human failings, like showing up drunk for work.
>As a person who actually lives in Russia and has a child in elementary school (...) between now and Soviet times
unless it's a grandkid or you had it at like 50, - a reminder that "soviet times" were 27 years ago.
回复：@匿名co夫
Yes, I’m old enough to have attended elementary school in Soviet times myself.
I heard the figure 5 million employed as drivers or security guards. that's what, every 10th-15th male of working age?
everything is better, ceteris paribus etc, with a high-IQ population, witness South Korea.
besides, a good system runs smoothly even with non-perfect people, who aren't paragons of Aristotelian virtue, running it.
an impression I have from social media (not a font of wisdom to begin with, but still) is Russians are full of.... misconceptions about things, and they don't really get along with each other.
回复：@匿名co夫
Learning about Russia from social media is like learning about the USA from its university professors.
Glossy had a meltdown around July and presumably isn't returning anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/881660958019604481
(Personally I found the passive-aggressive Likes from Nina Byzantina the most amusing part).
Anyhow, in a way it's also rather liberating, fewer incentives to pretend to like the USSR. Probably wasn't sustainable, either. Ironically I've grown (even more) disillusioned with the USSR and socialist ideas in general since returning to Russia.
回复：@匿名co夫，@ reiner Tor
Not ironic or surprising, this is the standard experience for almost anybody who has lived in modern post-Soviet Russia.
And if this fails, people should do what others did to the Mannerheim plaque in SPB.
回复：@Jaakko Raipala
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland’s newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I’m not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
And this was not a fight against the "red threat" - exterminated Russians were "white" (i.e. anti-Communist). Mannerheim same Russian aristocrat and "russophile" as Alfred Rosenberg
回覆：@Anatoly Karlin，@ Jaakko Raipala
You are Finnish? Is the wage structure any less broken there these days?
Mannerheim wasn't a "Russian aristocrat". He was an ethnic Swede of Swedish and German ancestry.
when American Jews finally do vanish, they will not be sorely missed.
With no Jews around, how will the anti-Semites waste their time?
Replies: @German_reader, @neutral, @notanon, @Anon
Arabs are Semites too and Gulf Arabs are as dangerous as rich Jews.
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland's newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I'm not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
Replies: @melanf, @Anon, @Daniel Chieh, @Not Raul
Call Manneheim “Russian aristocrat” or “russophile” is a heavy insult to Russia. In 1918, the Finnish nationalists under the command of Mannerheim’s massacred the Russian population in Vyborg. Killed without distinction of age and sex, killed children (among those killed who are known by name, the youngest was 9 years old). These Russian inhabitants of Vyborg were driven to the wall and shot with machine guns. The wounded were finished off with revolvers
And this was not a fight against the “red threat” – exterminated Russians were “white” (i.e. anti-Communist). Mannerheim same Russian aristocrat and “russophile” as Alfred Rosenberg
Jaakko had a great alternate perspective 点击此处.
Re-Vyborg massacre: Wikipedia gives 一个不同的版本. Not all the Russians in Vyborg were killed, but 10% (~400/4,000) of them; it may have been provoked by drunken Red Guards who had previously murdered 30 POWs; not only Russians were amongst those killed, but also included Poles and other ethnic minorities; finally, Mannerheim himself had nothing to do with it and demanded an investigation and punishment (it was actually a German-affiliated unit who carried out the massacre, and Mannerheim was the opposite of pro-German).
回复：@melanf
These same German-sponsored "nationalists" attempted to kill Mannerheim several times during the Civil War, took over the country with German support in 1918 and immediately exiled Mannerheim who could only return after Germany withdrew. Mannerheim and the Tsarist aristocrats that he led during the Civil War were their biggest political opponents which is why our regime wants to forget them now that Finland wants to align with Germany and take a culturally anti-Russian stance.
It's a grave insult to call the Vyborg criminals "Finnish nationalists" as they were not even Finnish; they were Germanic and many of them were not even Finnish citizens but Swedish and German far right volunteers (some of them later made careers as Nazis) and they also massacred non-Red ethnic Finns for purely racial reasons. Mannerheim was the one who shut down their involvement after the scandalous massacres; he was a very much needed opponent of Germanic ethnic chauvinism to protect ethnic Russians and ethnic Finns in a country with heavily Germanic elites.
Russia already debased ethnic Russian history in Finland after World War II when it allowed political pro-Nazis to get away with their crimes just as long as they agreed to chase Mannerheim and the other remnants of the imperial regime out of Finland. The debasement reached full extent under the Khrushchev era when the Soviet Union essentially installed the "reformed" pro-Nazi Urho Kekkonen as the President of Finland for two decades. This man who started his political career in Nazi Germany as a lobbyist trying to get ethnic Finns accepted in Nazi ideology and negotiated with Germans about clearing Slavs out of whatever territory pro-German Greater Finland conquers was glorified by the Soviet Union just because he agreed to lick Khrushchev's boots.
I do know what happened here and it's that the old Bolsheviks viewed Mannerheim and his team of aristocrats as potential competitors as originally they were: Mannerheim's original plan in 1917 was to raise an army to support his friend Kornilov and then it became about taking Finland to the Russian Civil War on the White side, a quest in which he failed because he was ousted by the pro-German "nationalists" and could only return to Finland after Germany surrendered - by then Lenin had the forces to protect Petrograd.
This is why they tried to tarnish his reputation by attributing the crimes of political factions that were not under Mannerheim's control to his faction. Meanwhile these few pro-Nazis in Finland were of no strategic importance to the Soviet government after Germany had been defeated so they decided to use the ones who agreed to turn coats. Thus, people who were actually responsible for events like the Vyborg massacre were not only pardoned but praised by Soviet propaganda while blame was put to the aristocrats who were mutual enemies of pro-German nationalists and communists.
I understand that Finland is a small country and few people outside of it understand the various factions at play. However in recent years we've been approached by various Russian ideologues (someone has been funding translations of Starikov, Dugin etc) and you must understand how weird it is for me to listen to some Russian patriot come here and explain to me how some pro-Nazi russophobe is a good guy of history while our history's main russophile opponent of pro-Nazi nationalists and Germanists is a pro-Nazi nationalist Germanist bad guy.
This is my major gripe with Russia right now, it seems like a broken record where they just repeat old propaganda so now the propaganda doesn't even have an aim. When Khrushchev and his propaganda team were inventing these Finlandization era myths that praised "reformed" pro-Nazis and blamed the evils of history on aristocrats they had a purpose in mind which was getting these people to work for them and purging Finland of the last bits of influence of imperial aristocracy. But now I meet these Russians who repeat the script with no awareness of why the script was written.
回复：@AP
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland's newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I'm not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
Replies: @melanf, @Anon, @Daniel Chieh, @Not Raul
It does not seem to be backed by the Russian people and for the Russian people, therefore just a waste.
And this was not a fight against the "red threat" - exterminated Russians were "white" (i.e. anti-Communist). Mannerheim same Russian aristocrat and "russophile" as Alfred Rosenberg
回覆：@Anatoly Karlin，@ Jaakko Raipala
Jaakko had a great alternate perspective 点击此处.
Re-Vyborg massacre: Wikipedia gives 一个不同的版本. Not all the Russians in Vyborg were killed, but 10% (~400/4,000) of them; it may have been provoked by drunken Red Guards who had previously murdered 30 POWs; not only Russians were amongst those killed, but also included Poles and other ethnic minorities; finally, Mannerheim himself had nothing to do with it and demanded an investigation and punishment (it was actually a German-affiliated unit who carried out the massacre, and Mannerheim was the opposite of pro-German).
Propaganda nonsense , that the murder of children (children of "white" Russian) by troops of Mannerheim, "have been provoked by drunken Red Guards" I'm not going to comment. This is an exact replica of the leftist justification of the red terror
回复：@AP
And this was not a fight against the "red threat" - exterminated Russians were "white" (i.e. anti-Communist). Mannerheim same Russian aristocrat and "russophile" as Alfred Rosenberg
回覆：@Anatoly Karlin，@ Jaakko Raipala
These same German-sponsored “nationalists” attempted to kill Mannerheim several times during the Civil War, took over the country with German support in 1918 and immediately exiled Mannerheim who could only return after Germany withdrew. Mannerheim and the Tsarist aristocrats that he led during the Civil War were their biggest political opponents which is why our regime wants to forget them now that Finland wants to align with Germany and take a culturally anti-Russian stance.
It’s a grave insult to call the Vyborg criminals “Finnish nationalists” as they were not even Finnish; they were Germanic and many of them were not even Finnish citizens but Swedish and German far right volunteers (some of them later made careers as Nazis) and they also massacred non-Red ethnic Finns for purely racial reasons. Mannerheim was the one who shut down their involvement after the scandalous massacres; he was a very much needed opponent of Germanic ethnic chauvinism to protect ethnic Russians and ethnic Finns in a country with heavily Germanic elites.
Russia already debased ethnic Russian history in Finland after World War II when it allowed political pro-Nazis to get away with their crimes just as long as they agreed to chase Mannerheim and the other remnants of the imperial regime out of Finland. The debasement reached full extent under the Khrushchev era when the Soviet Union essentially installed the “reformed” pro-Nazi Urho Kekkonen as the President of Finland for two decades. This man who started his political career in Nazi Germany as a lobbyist trying to get ethnic Finns accepted in Nazi ideology and negotiated with Germans about clearing Slavs out of whatever territory pro-German Greater Finland conquers was glorified by the Soviet Union just because he agreed to lick Khrushchev’s boots.
I do know what happened here and it’s that the old Bolsheviks viewed Mannerheim and his team of aristocrats as potential competitors as originally they were: Mannerheim’s original plan in 1917 was to raise an army to support his friend Kornilov and then it became about taking Finland to the Russian Civil War on the White side, a quest in which he failed because he was ousted by the pro-German “nationalists” and could only return to Finland after Germany surrendered – by then Lenin had the forces to protect Petrograd.
This is why they tried to tarnish his reputation by attributing the crimes of political factions that were not under Mannerheim’s control to his faction. Meanwhile these few pro-Nazis in Finland were of no strategic importance to the Soviet government after Germany had been defeated so they decided to use the ones who agreed to turn coats. Thus, people who were actually responsible for events like the Vyborg massacre were not only pardoned but praised by Soviet propaganda while blame was put to the aristocrats who were mutual enemies of pro-German nationalists and communists.
I understand that Finland is a small country and few people outside of it understand the various factions at play. However in recent years we’ve been approached by various Russian ideologues (someone has been funding translations of Starikov, Dugin etc) and you must understand how weird it is for me to listen to some Russian patriot come here and explain to me how some pro-Nazi russophobe is a good guy of history while our history’s main russophile opponent of pro-Nazi nationalists and Germanists is a pro-Nazi nationalist Germanist bad guy.
This is my major gripe with Russia right now, it seems like a broken record where they just repeat old propaganda so now the propaganda doesn’t even have an aim. When Khrushchev and his propaganda team were inventing these Finlandization era myths that praised “reformed” pro-Nazis and blamed the evils of history on aristocrats they had a purpose in mind which was getting these people to work for them and purging Finland of the last bits of influence of imperial aristocracy. But now I meet these Russians who repeat the script with no awareness of why the script was written.
Very interesting. Reminds me of of the Soviet story of Petliura as a raging antisemite (though to be fair, Petliura's relationship to the troops who massacred Jews was not nearly as antagonistic as those of Mannerheim to the troops who massacred Russians).
Jaakko had a great alternate perspective 点击此处.
Re-Vyborg massacre: Wikipedia gives 一个不同的版本. Not all the Russians in Vyborg were killed, but 10% (~400/4,000) of them; it may have been provoked by drunken Red Guards who had previously murdered 30 POWs; not only Russians were amongst those killed, but also included Poles and other ethnic minorities; finally, Mannerheim himself had nothing to do with it and demanded an investigation and punishment (it was actually a German-affiliated unit who carried out the massacre, and Mannerheim was the opposite of pro-German).
回复：@melanf
These arguments closely resembles leftist story that Lenin and Stalin were opposed to terror, but there was nothing they could do. Mannerheim may not have been the initiator of the murders, but beyond the slightest doubt he covered the killers, so that none of the killers has been punished ( http://mitra-books.com/uploads/attachments/lars-vesterlund-431.pdf ). This is sufficient for evaluation of the “Russophilia” of Mannerheim.
Propaganda nonsense , that the murder of children (children of “white” Russian) by troops of Mannerheim, “have been provoked by drunken Red Guards” I’m not going to comment. This is an exact replica of the leftist justification of the red terror
https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Ylikangas
回复：@melanf
Huntsman carrying out murders considered themselves Finnish nationalists. And among those who was murdered were ethnic Germans.
It is rather strange to count Mannerheim “anti-German” politician:
“In 1934, in Berlin Mannerheim pretty close friends with Goering, a close ally of Hitler. These relations, he maintained a very long time. Went to East Prussia to hunt in the grounds of Goering. Goering during his long stay in Sweden, struck up acquaintance in the higher circles of the country, and in the castle of count von of Rosina found his sweetheart and future wife. This von Rosen (in 1918) gave the white army, Mannerheim first plane with a swastika on Board. This emblem by the order of Mannerheim entered the symbols and badges of the young Republic. Mannerheim and Goering was a common Swedish friends and acquaintances, their relationship cannot be called superficial and formal.”
Meri V. C. G. Mannerheim
You have a very curious idea of "Finnish nationalists". I think, by the way, that inviting Swedish volunteers for the Civil War was a serious mistake as the kind of a person who actually volunteers to fight in a foreign Civil War is generally a dangerous political radical of some type. Mannerheim did correct that mistake and sent most of the Swedish volunteers home but not before the damage was done. However you are completely incorrect to portray ethnic Russians as unique victims here as these Germanic chauvinists were just as anti-Finnish as they were anti-Slavic.
These murderers passed through my hometown as well, left behind Finnish bodies and no one was ever punished. This is painful but it's hardly Mannerheim's fault - the country was in chaos with multiple militaries and paramilitaries operating on their own. It took years for the government to re-assert full control over the country as paramilitaries were still running around disregarding orders and doing whatever they pleased despite orders to stand down. Even lots of Red murderers escaped justice because there was no functioning local government to pursue them (which is one reason why White vigilante terror kept going).
These same German-sponsored "nationalists" attempted to kill Mannerheim several times during the Civil War, took over the country with German support in 1918 and immediately exiled Mannerheim who could only return after Germany withdrew. Mannerheim and the Tsarist aristocrats that he led during the Civil War were their biggest political opponents which is why our regime wants to forget them now that Finland wants to align with Germany and take a culturally anti-Russian stance.
It's a grave insult to call the Vyborg criminals "Finnish nationalists" as they were not even Finnish; they were Germanic and many of them were not even Finnish citizens but Swedish and German far right volunteers (some of them later made careers as Nazis) and they also massacred non-Red ethnic Finns for purely racial reasons. Mannerheim was the one who shut down their involvement after the scandalous massacres; he was a very much needed opponent of Germanic ethnic chauvinism to protect ethnic Russians and ethnic Finns in a country with heavily Germanic elites.
Russia already debased ethnic Russian history in Finland after World War II when it allowed political pro-Nazis to get away with their crimes just as long as they agreed to chase Mannerheim and the other remnants of the imperial regime out of Finland. The debasement reached full extent under the Khrushchev era when the Soviet Union essentially installed the "reformed" pro-Nazi Urho Kekkonen as the President of Finland for two decades. This man who started his political career in Nazi Germany as a lobbyist trying to get ethnic Finns accepted in Nazi ideology and negotiated with Germans about clearing Slavs out of whatever territory pro-German Greater Finland conquers was glorified by the Soviet Union just because he agreed to lick Khrushchev's boots.
I do know what happened here and it's that the old Bolsheviks viewed Mannerheim and his team of aristocrats as potential competitors as originally they were: Mannerheim's original plan in 1917 was to raise an army to support his friend Kornilov and then it became about taking Finland to the Russian Civil War on the White side, a quest in which he failed because he was ousted by the pro-German "nationalists" and could only return to Finland after Germany surrendered - by then Lenin had the forces to protect Petrograd.
This is why they tried to tarnish his reputation by attributing the crimes of political factions that were not under Mannerheim's control to his faction. Meanwhile these few pro-Nazis in Finland were of no strategic importance to the Soviet government after Germany had been defeated so they decided to use the ones who agreed to turn coats. Thus, people who were actually responsible for events like the Vyborg massacre were not only pardoned but praised by Soviet propaganda while blame was put to the aristocrats who were mutual enemies of pro-German nationalists and communists.
I understand that Finland is a small country and few people outside of it understand the various factions at play. However in recent years we've been approached by various Russian ideologues (someone has been funding translations of Starikov, Dugin etc) and you must understand how weird it is for me to listen to some Russian patriot come here and explain to me how some pro-Nazi russophobe is a good guy of history while our history's main russophile opponent of pro-Nazi nationalists and Germanists is a pro-Nazi nationalist Germanist bad guy.
This is my major gripe with Russia right now, it seems like a broken record where they just repeat old propaganda so now the propaganda doesn't even have an aim. When Khrushchev and his propaganda team were inventing these Finlandization era myths that praised "reformed" pro-Nazis and blamed the evils of history on aristocrats they had a purpose in mind which was getting these people to work for them and purging Finland of the last bits of influence of imperial aristocracy. But now I meet these Russians who repeat the script with no awareness of why the script was written.
回复：@AP
Very interesting. Reminds me of of the Soviet story of Petliura as a raging antisemite (though to be fair, Petliura’s relationship to the troops who massacred Jews was not nearly as antagonistic as those of Mannerheim to the troops who massacred Russians).
Propaganda nonsense , that the murder of children (children of "white" Russian) by troops of Mannerheim, "have been provoked by drunken Red Guards" I'm not going to comment. This is an exact replica of the leftist justification of the red terror
回复：@AP
The project you linked to appears to be some sort of leftist anti-Finnish one, created by a controversial guy whose ancestors had been persecuted by the Whites:
https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Ylikangas
回复：@AP
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland's newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I'm not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
Replies: @melanf, @Anon, @Daniel Chieh, @Not Raul
You are Finnish? Is the wage structure any less broken there these days?
https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Ylikangas
回复：@melanf
This is a powerful argument/s
It suggests his motives are personal rather than to pursue objective truth about events. Of course, this can be true of anybody.
The most important thing seems to be that his ideas are viewed as controversial and that he has academic detractors. His bio suggests that he is a leftist type, focused on trying to dirty the reputation of past heroes. The type that, if he were an American, he would be focused on documenting Washington's or Jefferson cruelty towards slaves to the extent that his objectivity becomes questionable. His academic specialty is actually not in the topic we are discussing but in the law and legal history - another warning sign.
I'm not a Finn, Jaakko knows far more about this than I do, but wiki tends to provide a "standard" view of issues.
回复：@melanf
回复：@AP
It suggests his motives are personal rather than to pursue objective truth about events. Of course, this can be true of anybody.
The most important thing seems to be that his ideas are viewed as controversial and that he has academic detractors. His bio suggests that he is a leftist type, focused on trying to dirty the reputation of past heroes. The type that, if he were an American, he would be focused on documenting Washington’s or Jefferson cruelty towards slaves to the extent that his objectivity becomes questionable. His academic specialty is actually not in the topic we are discussing but in the law and legal history – another warning sign.
I’m not a Finn, Jaakko knows far more about this than I do, but wiki tends to provide a “standard” view of issues.
回复：@Jaakko Raipala
Suppose I move to a new neighborhood, and I know that the neighbor has two children. While moving in, I see one boy playing in the neighbor’s yard (and have good reason to believe that the boy belongs to the neighbors).
P(there are two boys)=1/4
P(seen one boy)=1/2
P(seen one boy|there are two boys)=1
P(there are two boys|seen one boy)=1*((1/4)/(1/2))=1/2.
Arithmetic isn’t a popularity contest. Interpretation of an ambiguous statement is. Depending on what information you are trying to obtain, one or the other interpretation is more relevant.
回复：@Not Raul
谢谢。
Now I see why you got the wrong answer.
P(there is one boy) = 1/2
But that is irrelevant.
P(there is at least 1 boy) = 3/4
The denominator to use in Bayes’ Theorem is 3/4, not 1/2.
The issue isn’t your “interpretation”. You made a mistake.
This is a famous problem about which statisticians have written many papers. Ultimately, natural language, like English, is ambiguous, and there can be more than one reasonable way to translate it into a mathematical problem. I’m sorry if I am not explaining the issue clearly. You might try the Wikipedia article
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Also, I like Peter Shor’s explanation here
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15055/in-a-family-with-two-children-what-are-the-chances-if-one-of-the-children-is-a
which I copy:
“I think this question confuses a lot of people because there's a lack of intuitive context -- I'll try to supply that.
Suppose there is a birthday party to which all of the girls (and none of the boys) in a small town are invited. If you run into a mother who has dropped off a kid at this birthday party and who has two children, the chance that she has two girls is 1/3. Why? 3/4 of the mothers with two children will have a daughter at the birthday party, the ones with two girls (1/4 of the total mothers with two children) and the ones with one girl and one boy (1/2 of the total mothers with two children). Out of these 3/4 of the mothers, 1/3 have two girls.
On the other hand, if the birthday party is only for fifth-grade girls, you get a different answer. Assuming there are no siblings who are both in the fifth grade, the answer in this case is 1/2. The child in fifth grade is a girl, but the other child has probability 1/2 of being a girl. Situations of this kind arise in real life much more commonly than situations of the other kind, so the answer of 1/3 is quite nonintuitive.”
The situation that I described above, in which you sample not from all families that have two children, but rather fix a given family with two children (for example, your neighbors), and then choose one of the two children randomly to determine “at least one is a boy” or “at least one is a girl” also gives the answer 1/2. Given that the problem is stated about “Mr. Smith”, you might think that Mr. Smith is meant to be an actual person with an actual family, for example your neighbor, and then you might reasonably interpret the statement this way.
回复：@Not Raul
That would actually be rather comparable. The current rabidly pro-German right-wing government of Finland is trying to erase Mannerheim and other Russian aristocrats from our history so it would be ironically typical of the Kremlin diplomatic geniuses if they now tried to approach Finland by re-visioning and complimenting Mannerheim.
An ironic casualty of the demise of the USSR is that our political class no longer needs anti-communists in our history and Mannerheim with his anti-German opinions, russophile cultural orientation, scheming with Churchill and Russian exiles and borderline traitorous decisions during World War II is not a fit with Finland's newly invented eurofederalist (pro-German) history.
We have a 100th anniversary coming and I'm not seeing Mannerheim anywhere in the material our right-wing government is promoting.
Replies: @melanf, @Anon, @Daniel Chieh, @Not Raul
Mannerheim wasn’t a “Russian aristocrat”. He was an ethnic Swede of Swedish and German ancestry.
It suggests his motives are personal rather than to pursue objective truth about events. Of course, this can be true of anybody.
The most important thing seems to be that his ideas are viewed as controversial and that he has academic detractors. His bio suggests that he is a leftist type, focused on trying to dirty the reputation of past heroes. The type that, if he were an American, he would be focused on documenting Washington's or Jefferson cruelty towards slaves to the extent that his objectivity becomes questionable. His academic specialty is actually not in the topic we are discussing but in the law and legal history - another warning sign.
I'm not a Finn, Jaakko knows far more about this than I do, but wiki tends to provide a "standard" view of issues.
回复：@melanf
About the friendship of Mannerheim and Goering write and other historians
Mannerheim was also friends with many socialists, yet acted as an anti-socialist in politics. He even tried to contact Trotsky and to strike up a friendship with him with the ambition of creating a grand anti-Stalinist coalition of all ideologies. Trotsky rejected the idea rather rudely.
He had a lot of famous and controversial friends, for example Winston Churchill who declared war on Finland and then immediately sent Mannerheim a personal letter of apology; they remained in touch during the war which was scandalous in Finland. There's not much evidence of his beliefs in his friends considering the extremely diverse set that he had.
There's not much mystery about his feelings over the Nazi regime (or anything else) given that there are rather many Mannerheim biographers in Finland who have dug up his private letters to relatives and such. His initial response to Hitler's rise was mixed: he didn't like the ethnic chauvinism, he still mistrusted Germany as a power (given his experiences in 1917-1918) but he was elated that a Great Power was finally taking a strong anti-communist stance. His trip to Germany in 1934 turned his impressions much more negative and by then his letters to his relatives talk about how the national socialists have adopted all the terrible methods of communists.
Replies: @melanf, @Greasy William, @Anon
回复：@Jaakko Raipala
Mannerheim was also friends with many socialists, yet acted as an anti-socialist in politics. He even tried to contact Trotsky and to strike up a friendship with him with the ambition of creating a grand anti-Stalinist coalition of all ideologies. Trotsky rejected the idea rather rudely.
He had a lot of famous and controversial friends, for example Winston Churchill who declared war on Finland and then immediately sent Mannerheim a personal letter of apology; they remained in touch during the war which was scandalous in Finland. There’s not much evidence of his beliefs in his friends considering the extremely diverse set that he had.
There’s not much mystery about his feelings over the Nazi regime (or anything else) given that there are rather many Mannerheim biographers in Finland who have dug up his private letters to relatives and such. His initial response to Hitler’s rise was mixed: he didn’t like the ethnic chauvinism, he still mistrusted Germany as a power (given his experiences in 1917-1918) but he was elated that a Great Power was finally taking a strong anti-communist stance. His trip to Germany in 1934 turned his impressions much more negative and by then his letters to his relatives talk about how the national socialists have adopted all the terrible methods of communists.
Stalin and Lenin still have supporters, but the man who won the Russian Civil War gets no respect. Maybe if he had had better people skills, he would have more admirers today. Maybe he would even have won his power struggle with Stalin.
回复：@Johann Ricke
谢谢。
Now I see why you got the wrong answer.
P(there is one boy) = 1/2
But that is irrelevant.
P(there is at least 1 boy) = 3/4
The denominator to use in Bayes' Theorem is 3/4, not 1/2.
The issue isn't your "interpretation". You made a mistake.
回复：@The Big Red Scary
This is a famous problem about which statisticians have written many papers. Ultimately, natural language, like English, is ambiguous, and there can be more than one reasonable way to translate it into a mathematical problem. I’m sorry if I am not explaining the issue clearly. You might try the Wikipedia article
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Also, I like Peter Shor’s explanation here
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15055/in-a-family-with-two-children-what-are-the-chances-if-one-of-the-children-is-a
which I copy:
“I think this question confuses a lot of people because there’s a lack of intuitive context — I’ll try to supply that.
Suppose there is a birthday party to which all of the girls (and none of the boys) in a small town are invited. If you run into a mother who has dropped off a kid at this birthday party and who has two children, the chance that she has two girls is 1/3. Why? 3/4 of the mothers with two children will have a daughter at the birthday party, the ones with two girls (1/4 of the total mothers with two children) and the ones with one girl and one boy (1/2 of the total mothers with two children). Out of these 3/4 of the mothers, 1/3 have two girls.
On the other hand, if the birthday party is only for fifth-grade girls, you get a different answer. Assuming there are no siblings who are both in the fifth grade, the answer in this case is 1/2. The child in fifth grade is a girl, but the other child has probability 1/2 of being a girl. Situations of this kind arise in real life much more commonly than situations of the other kind, so the answer of 1/3 is quite nonintuitive.”
The situation that I described above, in which you sample not from all families that have two children, but rather fix a given family with two children (for example, your neighbors), and then choose one of the two children randomly to determine “at least one is a boy” or “at least one is a girl” also gives the answer 1/2. Given that the problem is stated about “Mr. Smith”, you might think that Mr. Smith is meant to be an actual person with an actual family, for example your neighbor, and then you might reasonably interpret the statement this way.
Obviously, if you ask a different question, you might get a different answer.
The original question in Yudkowski's post specified twins, at least one of which is a boy. Whether the oldest, or the youngest, or both are boys is not specified. The answer to the original question is 1/3.
I'm starting to suspect that Yudkowski is aware of this forum.
Mannerheim was also friends with many socialists, yet acted as an anti-socialist in politics. He even tried to contact Trotsky and to strike up a friendship with him with the ambition of creating a grand anti-Stalinist coalition of all ideologies. Trotsky rejected the idea rather rudely.
He had a lot of famous and controversial friends, for example Winston Churchill who declared war on Finland and then immediately sent Mannerheim a personal letter of apology; they remained in touch during the war which was scandalous in Finland. There's not much evidence of his beliefs in his friends considering the extremely diverse set that he had.
There's not much mystery about his feelings over the Nazi regime (or anything else) given that there are rather many Mannerheim biographers in Finland who have dug up his private letters to relatives and such. His initial response to Hitler's rise was mixed: he didn't like the ethnic chauvinism, he still mistrusted Germany as a power (given his experiences in 1917-1918) but he was elated that a Great Power was finally taking a strong anti-communist stance. His trip to Germany in 1934 turned his impressions much more negative and by then his letters to his relatives talk about how the national socialists have adopted all the terrible methods of communists.
Replies: @melanf, @Greasy William, @Anon
Generally about political figures of the past there are different opinions. But there were two policies in respect of which in Russia there is complete unanimity. Hitler and Trotsky perceived as the akme of absolute evil (in this regard, in Russia the right unanimous with the left). Mannerheim is probably the only person who tried to make friends with both of them.
Mannerheim was also friends with many socialists, yet acted as an anti-socialist in politics. He even tried to contact Trotsky and to strike up a friendship with him with the ambition of creating a grand anti-Stalinist coalition of all ideologies. Trotsky rejected the idea rather rudely.
He had a lot of famous and controversial friends, for example Winston Churchill who declared war on Finland and then immediately sent Mannerheim a personal letter of apology; they remained in touch during the war which was scandalous in Finland. There's not much evidence of his beliefs in his friends considering the extremely diverse set that he had.
There's not much mystery about his feelings over the Nazi regime (or anything else) given that there are rather many Mannerheim biographers in Finland who have dug up his private letters to relatives and such. His initial response to Hitler's rise was mixed: he didn't like the ethnic chauvinism, he still mistrusted Germany as a power (given his experiences in 1917-1918) but he was elated that a Great Power was finally taking a strong anti-communist stance. His trip to Germany in 1934 turned his impressions much more negative and by then his letters to his relatives talk about how the national socialists have adopted all the terrible methods of communists.
Replies: @melanf, @Greasy William, @Anon
Trotsky, the master of How to Lose Friends and Alienate People.
Stalin and Lenin still have supporters, but the man who won the Russian Civil War gets no respect. Maybe if he had had better people skills, he would have more admirers today. Maybe he would even have won his power struggle with Stalin.
It is rather strange to count Mannerheim "anti-German" politician:
"In 1934, in Berlin Mannerheim pretty close friends with Goering, a close ally of Hitler. These relations, he maintained a very long time. Went to East Prussia to hunt in the grounds of Goering. Goering during his long stay in Sweden, struck up acquaintance in the higher circles of the country, and in the castle of count von of Rosina found his sweetheart and future wife. This von Rosen (in 1918) gave the white army, Mannerheim first plane with a swastika on Board. This emblem by the order of Mannerheim entered the symbols and badges of the young Republic. Mannerheim and Goering was a common Swedish friends and acquaintances, their relationship cannot be called superficial and formal."
Meri V. C. G. Mannerheim
回复：@Jaakko Raipala
These “Finnish nationalists” were not Finnish, did not speak Finnish, committed massacres of Finns and Slavs where they asked someone questions in Swedish and if they could not reply in Swedish they shot him/her and a lot of these people were volunteers from Sweden who had never even visited Finland before the Civil War.
You have a very curious idea of “Finnish nationalists”. I think, by the way, that inviting Swedish volunteers for the Civil War was a serious mistake as the kind of a person who actually volunteers to fight in a foreign Civil War is generally a dangerous political radical of some type. Mannerheim did correct that mistake and sent most of the Swedish volunteers home but not before the damage was done. However you are completely incorrect to portray ethnic Russians as unique victims here as these Germanic chauvinists were just as anti-Finnish as they were anti-Slavic.
These murderers passed through my hometown as well, left behind Finnish bodies and no one was ever punished. This is painful but it’s hardly Mannerheim’s fault – the country was in chaos with multiple militaries and paramilitaries operating on their own. It took years for the government to re-assert full control over the country as paramilitaries were still running around disregarding orders and doing whatever they pleased despite orders to stand down. Even lots of Red murderers escaped justice because there was no functioning local government to pursue them (which is one reason why White vigilante terror kept going).
This is a famous problem about which statisticians have written many papers. Ultimately, natural language, like English, is ambiguous, and there can be more than one reasonable way to translate it into a mathematical problem. I’m sorry if I am not explaining the issue clearly. You might try the Wikipedia article
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Also, I like Peter Shor’s explanation here
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15055/in-a-family-with-two-children-what-are-the-chances-if-one-of-the-children-is-a
which I copy:
“I think this question confuses a lot of people because there's a lack of intuitive context -- I'll try to supply that.
Suppose there is a birthday party to which all of the girls (and none of the boys) in a small town are invited. If you run into a mother who has dropped off a kid at this birthday party and who has two children, the chance that she has two girls is 1/3. Why? 3/4 of the mothers with two children will have a daughter at the birthday party, the ones with two girls (1/4 of the total mothers with two children) and the ones with one girl and one boy (1/2 of the total mothers with two children). Out of these 3/4 of the mothers, 1/3 have two girls.
On the other hand, if the birthday party is only for fifth-grade girls, you get a different answer. Assuming there are no siblings who are both in the fifth grade, the answer in this case is 1/2. The child in fifth grade is a girl, but the other child has probability 1/2 of being a girl. Situations of this kind arise in real life much more commonly than situations of the other kind, so the answer of 1/3 is quite nonintuitive.”
The situation that I described above, in which you sample not from all families that have two children, but rather fix a given family with two children (for example, your neighbors), and then choose one of the two children randomly to determine “at least one is a boy” or “at least one is a girl” also gives the answer 1/2. Given that the problem is stated about “Mr. Smith”, you might think that Mr. Smith is meant to be an actual person with an actual family, for example your neighbor, and then you might reasonably interpret the statement this way.
回复：@Not Raul
Obviously, if you ask a different question, you might get a different answer.
The original question in Yudkowski’s post specified twins, at least one of which is a boy. Whether the oldest, or the youngest, or both are boys is not specified. The answer to the original question is 1/3.
I’m starting to suspect that Yudkowski is aware of this forum.
Mannerheim was also friends with many socialists, yet acted as an anti-socialist in politics. He even tried to contact Trotsky and to strike up a friendship with him with the ambition of creating a grand anti-Stalinist coalition of all ideologies. Trotsky rejected the idea rather rudely.
He had a lot of famous and controversial friends, for example Winston Churchill who declared war on Finland and then immediately sent Mannerheim a personal letter of apology; they remained in touch during the war which was scandalous in Finland. There's not much evidence of his beliefs in his friends considering the extremely diverse set that he had.
There's not much mystery about his feelings over the Nazi regime (or anything else) given that there are rather many Mannerheim biographers in Finland who have dug up his private letters to relatives and such. His initial response to Hitler's rise was mixed: he didn't like the ethnic chauvinism, he still mistrusted Germany as a power (given his experiences in 1917-1918) but he was elated that a Great Power was finally taking a strong anti-communist stance. His trip to Germany in 1934 turned his impressions much more negative and by then his letters to his relatives talk about how the national socialists have adopted all the terrible methods of communists.
Replies: @melanf, @Greasy William, @Anon
If even allying with this devil against the USSR was an option for them, Soviet opposition against Mannerheim and his Finland seems quite justified.
They might concentrate on genealogical studies to find out who's got Jewish ancestors and/or is supposedly a crypto-Jew...somewhat like in early modern Spain/Portugal, or today among Turkish antisemites with their theories about the Dönmeh.
回复：@Randal
Here’s a great “sign of the times” piece from DW. When I was growing up in C20th Cold War Britain, the encouragement of children to snitch on family and friends for political crimes, and their exhortation to do so by propaganda news stories idolising the activities of the snitches and the rewards given to them, was widely portrayed as one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies – the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today’s Germany:
Germany: Anti-Semitism in classroom prompts student to report classmates
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen at this site will find such stories exciting and promising signs for the future in their own countries.
(I don’t present this as evidence of a uniquely German degradation, by the way. I have no illusions that this could not happen in today’s Britain, mutatis mutandis.)
What's missing from the piece is whether the thought criminals were shot outright, or if the authorities magnanimously granted them clemency and merely sent them to re-education camps..?
Doesn't surprise me at all...I recently had a discussion with German lefties on an online forum (mostly not related to politics) in which I outed myself as an AfD sympathizer. I didn't make any extreme statements imo (actually much more moderate than what I write here)...but the discussion ended with one of the lefties (a voter of DIE LINKE) replying with statements like "YOU DUMB NAZI AND CRIMINAL SHUT UP!". More shocking than this childish outburst however was that several of the lefties apparently contacted a moderator and asked him to report me to police. He declined and just closed the thread...but that's how it is in Germany today. Absolutely no concept of free speech among many, many people, and an expectation that the state should crack down hard on the "wrong" kind of speech, even if it doesn't contain any incitement to violence or something of the sort. Germans have drawn completely the wrong lessons from their dictatorship experience in the 20th century and are as authoritarian and conformist as ever, and this mindset is actively encouraged by the establishment.
But as you wrote yourself, Britain is hardly any better (maybe even worse), despite its tradition of liberty. My father has been living in Germany for 40 years, but still goes to Britain for a few weeks every year; and even back in the early 2000s he had an altercation in his hometown (Preston in Lancashire) with some social worker type...ended with that woman shouting "I'll report you!" (for wrong thought). Disgusting mindset, and it really does seem to have increased in recent decades. Dialoge is impossible with those zealous Pawlik Morozov-types.
回复：@Anonymous
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen
As you well know, I am not an enemy of free speech. My enemies are the ones who use “my” free speech in order to destroy it.
one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies – the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today’s Germany:
If you haven’t read it yet:
Ryszard Legutko’s 民主中的恶魔：自由社会中的极权主义诱惑
a great read and apropos.
Glossy had a meltdown around July and presumably isn't returning anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/881660958019604481
(Personally I found the passive-aggressive Likes from Nina Byzantina the most amusing part).
Anyhow, in a way it's also rather liberating, fewer incentives to pretend to like the USSR. Probably wasn't sustainable, either. Ironically I've grown (even more) disillusioned with the USSR and socialist ideas in general since returning to Russia.
回复：@匿名co夫，@ reiner Tor
I’m not on Twitter, and cannot see who liked what. I can see 1-1 likes for many Glossy tweets. Did Nina like those?
Here's a great "sign of the times" piece from DW. When I was growing up in C20th Cold War Britain, the encouragement of children to snitch on family and friends for political crimes, and their exhortation to do so by propaganda news stories idolising the activities of the snitches and the rewards given to them, was widely portrayed as one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies - the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today's Germany:
Germany: Anti-Semitism in classroom prompts student to report classmates
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen at this site will find such stories exciting and promising signs for the future in their own countries.
(I don't present this as evidence of a uniquely German degradation, by the way. I have no illusions that this could not happen in today's Britain, mutatis mutandis.)
回复：@reiner Tor、@German_reader、@iffen
What’s missing from the piece is whether the thought criminals were shot outright, or if the authorities magnanimously granted them clemency and merely sent them to re-education camps..?
Here's a great "sign of the times" piece from DW. When I was growing up in C20th Cold War Britain, the encouragement of children to snitch on family and friends for political crimes, and their exhortation to do so by propaganda news stories idolising the activities of the snitches and the rewards given to them, was widely portrayed as one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies - the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today's Germany:
Germany: Anti-Semitism in classroom prompts student to report classmates
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen at this site will find such stories exciting and promising signs for the future in their own countries.
(I don't present this as evidence of a uniquely German degradation, by the way. I have no illusions that this could not happen in today's Britain, mutatis mutandis.)
回复：@reiner Tor、@German_reader、@iffen
Doesn’t surprise me at all…I recently had a discussion with German lefties on an online forum (mostly not related to politics) in which I outed myself as an AfD sympathizer. I didn’t make any extreme statements imo (actually much more moderate than what I write here)…but the discussion ended with one of the lefties (a voter of DIE LINKE) replying with statements like “YOU DUMB NAZI AND CRIMINAL SHUT UP!”. More shocking than this childish outburst however was that several of the lefties apparently contacted a moderator and asked him to report me to police. He declined and just closed the thread…but that’s how it is in Germany today. Absolutely no concept of free speech among many, many people, and an expectation that the state should crack down hard on the “wrong” kind of speech, even if it doesn’t contain any incitement to violence or something of the sort. Germans have drawn completely the wrong lessons from their dictatorship experience in the 20th century and are as authoritarian and conformist as ever, and this mindset is actively encouraged by the establishment.
But as you wrote yourself, Britain is hardly any better (maybe even worse), despite its tradition of liberty. My father has been living in Germany for 40 years, but still goes to Britain for a few weeks every year; and even back in the early 2000s he had an altercation in his hometown (Preston in Lancashire) with some social worker type…ended with that woman shouting “I’ll report you!” (for wrong thought). Disgusting mindset, and it really does seem to have increased in recent decades. Dialoge is impossible with those zealous Pawlik Morozov-types.
Won't intense censorship potentially curb German leadership in innovation and research? Stress is documented to have negative correlation with creativity.
回复：@German_reader
Here's a great "sign of the times" piece from DW. When I was growing up in C20th Cold War Britain, the encouragement of children to snitch on family and friends for political crimes, and their exhortation to do so by propaganda news stories idolising the activities of the snitches and the rewards given to them, was widely portrayed as one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies - the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today's Germany:
Germany: Anti-Semitism in classroom prompts student to report classmates
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen at this site will find such stories exciting and promising signs for the future in their own countries.
(I don't present this as evidence of a uniquely German degradation, by the way. I have no illusions that this could not happen in today's Britain, mutatis mutandis.)
回复：@reiner Tor、@German_reader、@iffen
Doubtless openly declared enemies of free political speech such as iffen
As you well know, I am not an enemy of free speech. My enemies are the ones who use “my” free speech in order to destroy it.
one of the more shocking facets of totalitarian societies – the unfree Nazi and Soviet societies from which we supposedly were fundamentally different.
Yet here it is in today’s Germany:
If you haven’t read it yet:
Ryszard Legutko’s 民主中的恶魔：自由社会中的极权主义诱惑
a great read and apropos.
Doesn't surprise me at all...I recently had a discussion with German lefties on an online forum (mostly not related to politics) in which I outed myself as an AfD sympathizer. I didn't make any extreme statements imo (actually much more moderate than what I write here)...but the discussion ended with one of the lefties (a voter of DIE LINKE) replying with statements like "YOU DUMB NAZI AND CRIMINAL SHUT UP!". More shocking than this childish outburst however was that several of the lefties apparently contacted a moderator and asked him to report me to police. He declined and just closed the thread...but that's how it is in Germany today. Absolutely no concept of free speech among many, many people, and an expectation that the state should crack down hard on the "wrong" kind of speech, even if it doesn't contain any incitement to violence or something of the sort. Germans have drawn completely the wrong lessons from their dictatorship experience in the 20th century and are as authoritarian and conformist as ever, and this mindset is actively encouraged by the establishment.
But as you wrote yourself, Britain is hardly any better (maybe even worse), despite its tradition of liberty. My father has been living in Germany for 40 years, but still goes to Britain for a few weeks every year; and even back in the early 2000s he had an altercation in his hometown (Preston in Lancashire) with some social worker type...ended with that woman shouting "I'll report you!" (for wrong thought). Disgusting mindset, and it really does seem to have increased in recent decades. Dialoge is impossible with those zealous Pawlik Morozov-types.
回复：@Anonymous
Won’t intense censorship potentially curb German leadership in innovation and research? Stress is documented to have negative correlation with creativity.
Won't intense censorship potentially curb German leadership in innovation and research? Stress is documented to have negative correlation with creativity.
回复：@German_reader
I doubt that such leadership even exists, Germany is basically still reaping the fruits of the innovation and development that happened in imperial Germany more than a century ago…no new industries have been established since then. And given the grotesque political mismanagement which is eroding Germany’s strengths on every level (lefties busily wrecking the school system, Merkel’s idiotic Energiewende driving up energy costs, importation of unassimilable aliens etc.), its future looks bleak anyway.
回复：@Johann Ricke
Mannerheim was merely allying with one demon against another. He clearly chose the lesser of two evils. By staying out of the Soviet Union, he spared Finland the decades of economic stagnation and political persecution and slaughter imposed upon the Baltic States by the Soviet system.