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2011年奇点峰会
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在一年中的那个时候,对于某种类型的书呆子, 奇点峰会。 这是一个 预览:

这次峰会 阵容 今年特色 25位发言人的混音 来自众多领域的研究,重点是机器人技术和人工智能,尤其是IBM计算机的胜利 沃森 in 危险! 今年二月。 发明家和获奖作家Ray Kurzweil将在“从Eliza到Watson到通过图灵测试”作开幕主题演讲。 首脑会议的注册时间为15月16日至92日,在纽约XNUMXY举行。 现在向公众开放.

今年峰会的主题是Watson的胜利以及Watson在医学等领域的未来应用。 丹·塞鲁蒂(Dan Cerutti)IBM Watson商业化副总裁将就Watson的医疗应用发表演讲,闭幕主题演讲将由 肯·詹宁斯,谁连续赢得74 危险! 比赛仅在二月份输给沃森。 沃森在比赛中赢得了$ 1,000,000,詹宁斯则赢得了$ 300,000,位居第二。 詹宁斯的演讲将是“危险中的人脑:“思考”的计算机。

因为现在我很忙,所以我无法做到这一点,但这太糟糕了。 肯·詹宁斯(Ken Jennings)是个很棒的新闻人物 看看所有的演讲者. 泰勒考恩 以及 索尼娅·阿里森(Sonia Arrison) 将在那里。 我和一些从业者共进午餐 人体工程学 几年前,但泰勒(Tyler)和布莱恩·卡普兰(Bryan Caplan)都不在城里。 无疑,这一天将会到来。 只是不是这一天。 我还没来得及复习 100加 (ala, 拉齐布·汗(Razib Khan)书籍 网站),但这是长寿可能带来的影响的绝妙选择(不,我不认为长寿研究如此疯狂,尽管我可能不像社区中的许多人那么乐观)。

(从重新发布 探索/ GNXP 经作者或代表的许可)
 
• 类别: 科学 •标签: 未来主义, 奇点峰会, 超人 
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  1. #2, though some bloggers of prominence can get media passes.

  2. These always struck me as a big circle jerk of charlatans who are as far from being experts on the things they’re talking about as the man on the street. For instance, Ray Kurzweil appears to know nothing at all about actual computer science research. I take it the “gerontologists” aren’t exactly doing much more than giving a summary of research interpreted through a very optimistic lens.

  3. kurzweil is the media front. there’s plenty of skepticism in the audience about any given claim in my experience.

  4. This is where people who want to be single for life meet up, right? ho ho ho ;p
    …and then proceed to annoy each other to death, ala reductio ad highlanderum. 😀

    I love how they say Watson won a million dollars. I wonder what “Watson” will be spending “his” – if it is a male name shall I refer to it with male pronouns?- money on. It would be nice if they dropped a mention did the designers keep the money; did it go to a cause?

    btw, anybody else ever jam with one of their professors? (did this today) by this I mean played music.

  5. Moore’s Law ceased operation several years ago, otherwise we’d have 15-20 GHz personal computers instead of 3 GHz models. Perhaps IBM’s 3D chip will revive it. However, the singularity remains nonsense. The people who go off to conferences to talk about it are a bunch of Jeremy Rifkins.

    Several years ago, Hubert Dreyfus (“What Computers Still Can’t Do,” MIT, 1994) described the state of the art of AI. His conclusions are still valid. We are now going on 40 years of failure and deceit. Watson’s success on Jeopardy (I watched it with my wife) depended entirely on response speed. It operated well within the response time of the humans and go there first. The accuracy of its guesses was no better that the humans. That, of course is a considerable programming achievement, but it points out the enormous computing potential of the human mind. And notice how small the human brain is compared to any computer.

    One fact that continually escapes computer people is that the human brain is a collection of analog machines each dedicated to a few related tasks. Trying to emulate this with a general purpose digital machine is doomed to failure. Any possible digital machine is necessarily slower than an analog machine. The inferiority of Watson compared to its human competitors is striking. A huge, slow digital machine that can only solve one problem against a human brain built on wetware (electrical impulse speed is what? 1 m/s?), with many specialized modules, that can walk off the set and lead a life.

  6. I think that Watson media spotlight (i.e. extended ad for IBM) had everyone donating the winnings to charity. Jennings is actually pretty clever and has been doing the rounds for his new book on maps. It sounds pretty funny and interesting at the same time. A difficult trick to pull off on topics like that. (这是评论 although it’s an LDS blog site – Jennings often guests at various major LDS blogs)

    I’m still not sure what the Watson event proves. I’m much more interested in seeing how IBM’s efforts to leverage the technology into the medical field turns out. I hear there is somewhat expected opposition from some doctors. Yet that really does seem like a field Watson would excel at. I’m really 不是 at all impressed with most doctor’s ability to diagnose problems. I’ve not been able to find a lot of reports about how Watson in medicine is actually proceeding beyond comments here or there at various blogs. What does get written up seems a tad too much influenced by the IBM PR machine.

  7. Bob, Moore’s law just deals with the rate of increase of transistors not frequencies of internal clocks. What happened years ago once they started reaching certain limits on chip design due to high frequencies and some electron tunneling problems was to simply go off in different directions. (Primarily parallel computing – although software hasn’t caught up there as well so the perception of power is off since most people use single threaded software) More interesting (no pun intended) is the recent companion to Moore’s law, Koomey’s Law, that deals with power usage. However Moore’s law still appears to fit the data pretty well and is only indirectly about computing power. (Although it deals with that well also)

  8. Will they be selling vitamin supplements at the summit too?

  9. #6, I dont about urs, but my computer does hav lots of GHz mor than a few years ago. Ofc, the trend is just to add mor and mor cores insted of significantly increasing the speed of the one’s. If we just add them up, my CPU is 3.3*4=13.2 GHz; add to that the speed of the in-bilt GPU unit. According to Intel, it is 850 Mhz. Adding gives rofly 14 GHz then. Pretty close to ur 15-20 GHz. The CPU also has a turbo feature, at a max of 3.7 GHz and so does the GPU at 1.1 GHz. Adding those gives a number in the 15-20 range. 🙂 And then ther is the fact that my CPU is not the fastest on the market AFAIK.

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