RSS
Joshua Culling at the National Taxpayers Union has a handy primer on the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus overviews of state ballot initiatives across the country.
Read and bookmark 点击此处.
For NY-23, check 73wire, 另一个麦凯恩, 瑞尔世界观及 TCOT 报告。
Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com has analysis on NY-23 polls and 总结:
…my experience conducting surveys for political campaigns, especially in Congressional districts in non-presidential year races, taught me the value of the vote history available on registered voter lists. More often than not, surveys I helped conduct based on such lists came closer representing the true likely electorate than media RDD samples which, like the Siena survey, disclose little to nothing about their likely voter screen or demographic composition.
Add to that the potential advantages of a self-administered automated survey in getting voters to provide more honest answers about whether they plan to vote and who they plan to vote for, and I find it difficult to ignore the PPP results. Hoffman looks like he’s headed to a comfortable victory.
Democrats and their media water-carriers got a head-start with this preemptive AP piece downplaying anticipated GOP wins.
所以：
茶党运动? Doesn’t mean anything.
Nationwide government health care takeover revolt? Doesn’t mean anything.
盖洛普民意调查 showing “Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group?” Doesn’t mean anything.
Tomorrow doesn’t mean anything.
Tomorrow doesn’t mean anything.
Tomorrow doesn’t mean anything.
Tomorrow doesn’t mean anything.
If they plug their ears, stamp their feet, and say it often enough, maybe they can wish tomorrow and the conservative surge all away.
***
Notice I said 保守的 surge. Not Republican. Read and send Doctor Zero’s excellent essay on the Stupid Party to every clueless GOP leader you know. Excerpt:
The radical nature of the current Administration makes the idea of “moderate” compromise laughable. What’s the moderate position on freedom-crushing trillion-dollar health care and environmentalist legislation? They’re okay, as long as the Democrats pinky-swear to keep the cost under $800 billion? That’s the kind of promise no politician could keep, even if it was made in earnest. A moderate Republican is someone who lives in a state of perpetual surprise as he ponders the monthly bills for nanny-state government. What’s the point of electing people who are guaranteed to spend the rest of their political careers complaining about how they’ve been played for fools?
Too much of the Republicans’ “Stupid Party” strategy is based on the mechanics of getting people with little elephants on their campaign signs elected. They view the election as the conclusion of a contest, when in fact it’s only the beginning. A successful Republican Party doesn’t have to be ideologically rigid, but it should insist on candidates who possess an intellectual foundation of conservative theory, and the ability to explain it at least as well as the thousands of people posting comments on conservative blogs.
***
