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在大流行中,免疫是无法替代的,因为免疫可以提供最佳的防止再感染的保护。 这就是为什么瑞典从一开始就将免疫力放在眼前的原因。 他们制定了旨在保护老年人和弱势群体,防止公共卫生系统不堪重负的政策,最重要的是,允许年轻,低风险的人自由互动,以便感染病毒并开发抗体。需要与未来的感染作斗争。 那是计划,它像魅力一样发挥了作用。 现在,瑞典距离实现畜群免疫力只有几周的时间(这意味着未来的爆发不会那么严重),而刚刚放松限制的封锁国家面临着一个艰难的艰难道路,可能成功也可能不会成功。 底线:瑞典分析了问题,找出了解决办法,并做了。 这就是为什么在大多数锁定状态仍停留在Square 1时它们仍在终点线上闭合的原因。

在撰写本文时,没有其他国家将免疫力作为其主要目标,这就是为什么一开始他们的方向是错误的。 您无法实现尚未确定的目标。 美国当前的战略着眼于严格的收容措施(就地庇护,自我隔离),其中大多数没有历史或科学依据。 事实是,当美国的Covid阳性病例数开始呈指数级增长时,特朗普政府做出了强烈反应。 这为锁定策略铺平了道路,该策略更多是出于集体考虑和有缺陷的计算机模型的结果,而不是基于数据的分析和灵活的战略计划。 结果不言而喻。 为期8周的锁定可能是美国历史上最大的政策灾难。 数以百万计的工作机会已经流失,成千上万的中小企业现在将面临破产,整个一代年轻人的未来前景都被抹杀了。 美国政府本来可以在该国引爆多枚核弹,而造成的损失却比其疯狂的封锁政策所造成的损失小。

目前,有24个州已开始重新开放经济。 没有解除限制的统一标准,没有一个开放另一部门的标准化方法,也没有应对不可避免的新病例和死亡激增的计划。 这一切看起来都像是一场灾难,但我们将保留判断,直到结果出来。我们可以肯定的是,特朗普政府中没有人对最终解除限制会产生的问题丝毫思考。 我们知道这是因为我们知道没有“退出策略”,所以只能即时做出准备,并希望取得最好的成绩。

相比之下,瑞典不需要退出战略,因为它从一开始就不会关闭经济或隔离其人民。 因此,过渡到正常生活和加强经济活动将不会那么困难。 这就是战略规划的好处,它可以预见一个人在实现自己的目标时可能会遇到的问题。 这是来自瑞典传染病临床医生Johan Giesecke的采访中的片段,他曾是瑞典的国家流行病学家以及欧洲疾病预防和控制中心的首席科学家。 吉塞克(Giesecke)帮助解释了瑞典的做法为何与众不同。 这既是感知问题,也是分析问题:

“我们看到的是一种相当轻微的感染,分布在全球各地。 我认为,无论我们采取什么措施,停止这种行动的可能性都相对较小。 大多数人将被此感染,大多数人甚至不会注意到。 我们现在有来自瑞典的数据,其中98%至99%的病例感染了非常轻微的病毒,甚至没有意识到自己被感染了。 因此,我们在全球范围内传播了这种轻度疾病,大多数情况是在我们看不到的地方发生的,因为这种疾病发生在病情不佳的人中间,然后传播给其他病情不佳的人生病了……我们所看到的(根据官方公布的病例数和死亡人数)是确诊该病的人的最上层,而接受重症监护的人则更薄,而那些病情更重的人则更薄。死。 但是真正的爆发发生在我们看不到的地方。” (“瑞典科学家约翰·吉塞克(Johan Giesecke)问澳大利亚,它计划如何在没有死亡的情况下解除封锁”,你把……秒数提高到52:1:48)

吉斯凯(Giesecke)的分析偏离了该病毒的传统观点,这解释了瑞典的反应为何如此不同。 例如,他说:“无论我们采取什么措施,我都认为停止这种机会的可能性相对较小。”

这是瑞典方法的根源。 瑞典并没有试图抑制他们认为是自然力量(如海啸)的感染,这种感染是无法遏制的,只能缓解。 从一开始,瑞典的方法就是“控制病毒的传播”,而不是通过遏制策略来抑制它。 这里有一个根本的区别,该区别体现在政策中。

其次,“我们现在从瑞典获得的数据表明,在98%至99%的病例中,有非常轻度的感染,甚至没有意识到自己已被感染。” 换句话说,这是一种具有高度传染性的感染,对大多数人几乎没有威胁。 这表明可以保持经济开放,而不会危及低风险群体的生命。 允许某些企业开放的另一个好处是,它创造了一个受控的环境,在该环境中,感染可以迅速传播到健康人群中,而健康人群又可以开发出未来爆发所需的抗体。 这完全符合瑞典管理而不是避免病毒感染的计划。s.

最后,“我们所看到的是,罹患这种疾病的人的头顶是薄薄的一层,而重症监护的人则是薄薄的一层,而死亡的人则是薄薄的一层。” 死于Covid的绝大多数人都超过65岁,患有多种潜在疾病。 他们应该死是一个可怕的悲剧,但是 为了制止像科维德这样不可阻挡的力量而徒劳地试图破坏数百万劳动者的生活和生活是愚蠢和不可原谅的。 适当的应对措施是尽可能地保护老年人和体弱多病的人,仔细监测病例的上升,以防止公共卫生系统陷于瘫痪,并使经济保持较低水平。 这正是瑞典所做的。

FAUCI vs. PAUL:“模糊处理”行动

毫不奇怪,免疫问题是在周二安东尼·富奇博士在国会山作证时提出的。 福奇与参议员兰德·保罗之间进行了激烈的交流,后者向传染病专家挑战了世卫组织在媒体上传播的误导性信息。 这是笔录的摘录:

兰德·保罗参议员: Fauci,研究表明,从无症状到重病的康复中的COVID-19患者正在表现出显着的抗体反应。 研究表明,SARS和MERS以及冠状病毒至少可诱导2至3年的免疫力,但媒体仍在继续报道,我们没有证据表明存活冠状病毒的患者具有免疫力。 我认为事实真相是相反的。 我们没有证据表明冠状病毒的幸存者没有免疫力,并且有大量证据表明它们确实具有免疫力。

您已经公开表示,您一定会打赌冠状病毒幸存者具有某种形式的免疫力。 Fauci博士,您能帮忙建立一个记录吗,即科学记录在不断积累,是否支持冠状病毒感染可能导致某种形式的免疫?

Anthony Fauci博士:“谢谢您的提问,Paul参议员。 是的,您是对的,我说的很正确,鉴于我们对从一般冠状病毒等病毒甚至任何极少数例外的传染病中恢复的了解,当您存在抗体时,很可能表明某种程度的抗体保护。

我认为这是如何表达的语义。 当您说长期自然史研究已经正式证明了这一点时,您可以证明的唯一方法就是保护性(我说过并且将重复),这很可能是这样,但还有什么是证明性的呢?抗体的度数或效价,可为您提供至关重要的保护水平和持久性。 正如我经常说的,然后再重复一遍,您可以做出合理的假设,即它具有保护性,但是经过几个月到几年的自然历史研究,便可以确切地告诉您是否是这种情况。” (真正清除政治)

这是一次至关重要的交流,有助于强调富奇真正具有难以捉摸的政治特征。 您会注意到他的回答完全是脚本化的,完全是circuit回的,并谨慎地避免提及“豁免”一词。

兰德·保罗(Rand Paul)的问题再简单不过了:Covid幸存者是否具有免疫能力? 是还是不是?

而且,答案是:“是的,他们愿意。 Covid幸存者确实具有免疫力。”

但是Fauci没有给出答案,经过长时间的反复思考,Fauci最终给出了他能想到的最不透明的反应,他说:“您可以做出合理的假设,认为这将是保护性的。” 换句话说,他谨慎地避免了明确的答案。 但是,这当然是可以理解的,因为世界卫生组织一直散布关于牛群免疫的谣言,以使科学混乱,因为这与他们的亲疫苗议程不相称。 这就是全部内容,扑灭自然免疫力为疫苗铺平道路。 在Business Insider的文章中查看以下剪辑:

“……世界卫生组织的领导人星期一对某些人可能会为了追求牵强的,与众不同的抗击病毒策略而丧生的想法表示愤慨。

这个想法是,“好吧,也许那些措施松懈而又什么都没做的国家会突然变得神奇地具有一定的畜群免疫力,那么如果我们在此过程中失去了一些老人呢?” 这是一个非常危险的计算。”世卫组织突发卫生事件执行主任迈克·瑞安(Mike Ryan)在与记者的电话中说。

瑞安(Ryan)没有提到任何特定的国家,但很难不想到瑞典疗养院的高死亡率,因为他提到“在某些国家,一半以上的病例发生在长期护理机构中,”人们还没有被“适当地屏蔽”。

莱恩说:“人类不是畜群。” “我认为当我们以这种方式使用术语来围绕人类的自然感染时,我们必须非常小心,因为它可能导致一种非常残酷的算术,不会把人,生命和痛苦置于等式的中心。”

瑞恩为这个想法接受了声音,这个想法是世界将接受一种通过人群传播的感染,甚至杀死一些人,以提供一种畜群保护,尤其是科学家们甚至不知道存在的一种。 他说,这不是任何“负责任的”国家都愿意接受的演算。” (“人类不是畜群”, 商业内幕)

如您所见,盖茨疫苗盖世太保发起了一场宣传运动,旨在抹杀,混淆和嘲笑实现免疫力的其他方法,这与他们雄心勃勃地使用疫苗作为加强全球追踪,监测和预防的切入点不谋而合。社会控制。 有人对此感到惊讶吗?

但是事实仍然如此-正如保罗所说, “正在康复的COVID-19患者……在至少2至3年中显示出显着的抗体反应(并且可能具有)免疫力。” 以下是来自瑞典首席流行病学家安德斯·特涅尔(Anders Tegnell)的更多信息,他在上周的一次采访中发表了此评论:

“可以肯定的是免疫确实存在……。 对于我们在瑞典遇到的所有病例,没有一个人两次患有这种疾病。 而且我们有一个非常严格的身份识别系统。 因此,我们绝不会怀念曾经两次经历过的人。 我从未听过任何国家/地区的任何报告,这些国家/地区曾经有过两次确诊的病例。 有关于它的谣言。 但是最后,它们被拒绝了。” (“关键语录:瑞典顶级流行病学家挑战有关COVID-19的传统观点” ijnet)

重复一遍:“没有一个人两次患有这种疾病。”

科学是明确的,免疫是真实的,瑞典正在努力在一个月内实现牛群免疫。

瑞典的公共卫生专家放松了对恶性大流行的控制,将瑞典人民送到了一个安全无忧的地方,使他们能够继续生活,而不必担心感染致命的病毒。

为瑞典万岁!

 
• 类别: 思想, 科学 •标签: 冠状病毒, 瑞典 
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  1. The first problem is that apparently they say that immunity isn’t their strategy. Just now from Aftonbladet: “Folkhälsomyndigheten om flockimmunitet: Inte vår strategi”.

    What does it mean to say that immunity prevents a reinfection? It means that older and sick people have to be isolated, what in many or most cases isn’t easy or possible. Beyond that, those who survive survive, while those who are weaker have to die.

    He still says: “They crafted a policy that was designed to protect the old and vulnerable, prevent the public health system from being overwhelmed”. But this is exactly what every country has been doing. The ones who started too late, or who had a more difficult situation have had a more difficult or dramatic situation. It’s difficult to see how they should have avoided a lockdown.

    According to the data provided by the John Hopinks University, the number of death in Sweden in the last days increases again and the last day has a number of deaths that has been overtaken only 3 times. I don’t know from where Whitney’s optimism comes.

    Today I saw on tv the case of a man who is 29 years old. He survived corvid-19 after weeks in a hospital. Now he is cured. But his throat had to be cut in an emergency and now he has to learn everything again because his case was a difficult case. He sits in a wheelchair. We know that covid can afect many organs, we still don’t know about possible damages that remain.

  2. JasonT 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Your post is typical of the fearmongers. One case, of which we are not told the details by the fearmonger, becomes the cassus belli for insane policies that affect billions of people.

    • 回复: @John Hagan
    , @Wally
  3. anon[146]• 免责声明 说:

    There’s nothing new or substantive in this article. As usual, the guy completely sidesteps inconvenient counter examples like Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand. Sweden also leads the pack in deaths, and they’re much healthier than America on average. So, you can expect the misery to be worse here. Sweden isn’t a good point of comparison with a lot of other places, either. Sweden has much of its population concentrated in a few smaller areas in the south of the country. The United States, in contrast, has only a few percent of the population exposed to the virus, and its population is spread out over an area equal to or greater than all of Western Europe — and Americans are much less healthy than Swedes; it’s only about 5% exposure in hard-hit Spain.

    Unstated in this man’s macabre rantings: to get to herd immunity in the U.S. will require millions of deaths and tens of millions of hospitalizations, along with the complete destruction for our hospital system. His libertarian audience is fine with that, true patriots that they are. Crackpots like this are why we are in the current situation to begin with. If we had followed the true models of Taiwan and New Zealand, we’d be fine with fewer deaths. But, of course, few people admit when they are wrong. Instead, they double down like Whitney here.

    新西兰卫生官员称冠状病毒已“消除”,因为新病例达到个位数

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-new-zealand-health-official-claims-elimination-virus/3038321001/

    Hong Kong, The True Model:

    It’s been five months, and I doubt Hong Kong will let someone like me in anytime soon. The city of more than 7 million people had no local cases for weeks until today; meanwhile, I live in the country with the worst outbreak in the world, the United States, with more than 80,000 known deaths from COVID-19 and without encouraging developments on the necessary measures to contain it.

    ...

    It recently stopped calculating the dreaded R(t)—the real-time transmission rate of the coronavirus—because, of course, you cannot calculate transmission rates without new cases.

    ...

    In response to the crisis, Hong Kongers spontaneously adopted near-universal masking on their own, defying the government’s ban on masks.

    ...

    When the government refused at first to close the border with mainland China, more than 7,000 medical workers went on an unprecedented strike, demanding border closures and PPE for hospital workers.

    ...

    Through Telegram channels, “anti-epidemic actions” were threatened if the government did not respond to the virus by closing down borders. Explosives were discovered at border checkpoints between mainland China and Hong Kong, and flaming objects were thrown at the train tracks connecting the two countries. When the government hastily set up quarantine centers in dense neighborhoods without consulting the people who lived nearby, Molotov cocktails engulfed their (empty) lobbies, and the plans were scrapped. Later, the government set up quarantine facilities in much more sparsely populated holiday villages and many people used hotels to self-isolate.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/how-hong-kong-beating-coronavirus/611524/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=2020-05-12T13%253A55%253A52

    In contrast to Hong Hong’s magnificent example, boomer conservative Americans took AR-15s to threaten lawmakers into reopening Burger King. They said Covid-19 was the flu and believed their reality show host king who told them it would go away in April like magic; they said if we didn’t reopen and let the virus spread to herd immunity, killing millions, we’d all be locked in our homes forever by the scary black helicopter deep state. They embraced dozens of wacky conspiracy theories and taunted anyone who wore a mask. Say good-bye. Into the garbage bin of history you go. Asia is the future. The time of the Western Man is drawing to an end.

  4. The first problem is that apparently they say that immunity isn’t their strategy. Just now from Aftonbladet: “Folkhälsomyndigheten om flockimmunitet: Inte vår strategi”.

    Giesecke likes to say that herd immunity is a by-product of the Swedish strategy rather than its direct goal, which is to protect the old and frail. This makes sense if we consider that the Swedish strategy would work even in the absence of disease-induced herd immunity (in which case we would simply tell the old and frail to self-isolate until a vaccine comes around).

    What does it mean to say that immunity prevents a reinfection? It means that older and sick people have to be isolated, what in many or most cases isn’t easy or possible.

    No, it doesn’t, and this is the beauty of herd immunity. Every new immune person lessens the risk of 任何人 catching the virus, young as old, and in time, the virus will have such trouble finding new hosts to spread itself to that it will effectively die out, making public spaces safe again.

    According to the data provided by the John Hopinks University, the number of death in Sweden in the last days increases again and the last day has a number of deaths that has been overtaken only 3 times. I don’t know from where Whitney’s optimism comes.

    The daily death figures are highly variable and shouldn’t be given any great attention. For what it’s worth (not much), today’s figure was 69.

    • 回复: @anon
    , @utu
    , @Sude
  5. @UncommonGround

    According to ONS about 35,000 people have died of covid in England and Wales. 29 people less than 25 years old. 372 people 25-44. 3,665 people 45 to 64. 17,011 people 65 to 84. 13.967 people older than 84. The primary factor is age. So yes. Makes sense to quarantine the elderly. Sweden also stated they did not do a good job of quarantining the nursing homes and it spread. That are looking at that and planning on doing a lot better job of screening people and denying visitors during a pandemic. This is what they said is their major mistake. They let it get into the nursing homes. This is also what South Korea concluded during the MERS outbreak in 2015. They achieved better results by focusing all their initial efforts and protecting the elderly. Seems like common sense.

    • 同意: Jett Rucker
    • 回复: @Alfred
  6. karel 说:

    One does have to be a fearmonger to notice that the “model”, if one could call it that way, adopted in Sweden is clearly not a success. The time course of the epidemics is still in its initial stage and we shall all see in one month’s time how Sweden will perform in comparison with other countries. Sweden clearly does not perform well when compared to other Scandinavian countries, as argued and documented elsewhere on this blog. Sweden’s performance is also extremely poor when compared to other European countries of similar population size, like the Czech republic. As of today 14th May
    Sweden cases per 1m 2,830 deaths per 1m 349
    Czech rep. cases per 1 m 780 deaths per 1 m 27
    Thus the marvel of the Swedish approach to covid-19 is a fiction. Sweden also lags in testing for the virus. No. of tests performed there, is about half that in the Czech rep. Hence, Sweden must therefore have many more active cases than those reported. Any speculations about achieving some kind of herd immunity for say 60 percent of the population is clearly delusional and with 10000 new cases per day it will take about 2 years. Furthermore, there is no evidence that most people will acquire any kind of lasting immunity after recovering from an infection as there are documented cases in China of repeated reinfections. How long such an acquired immunity may last is also an unknown factor. Will that be three months, half a year of two years? Nobody knows at the moment. I do not understand the reason for peddling here this idiotic Swedish approach as if it could save us all from financial misery.

    • 同意: Jean-Marie L.
    • 不同意: Jett Rucker
    • 回复: @Hippopotamusdrome
    , @utu
  7. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @UncommonGround

    According to the data provided by the John Hopinks University, the number of death in Sweden in the last days increases again and the last day has a number of deaths that has been overtaken only 3 times. I don’t know from where Whitney’s optimism comes.

    Incorrect. The Swedish Ministry Of Public Health 网站 shows declining 每日死亡 (Avlidna/dag). That’s where Mike Whitney gets his optimism – from official primary sources not secondary sources like Johns Hopkins who rely on newspaper reports and other dubious sources for their numbers.

    • 回复: @utu
  8. anon[974]• 免责声明 说:

    Maybe Sweden isn’t the model after all:

    Sweden Isn’t Anywhere Close To Herd Immunity

    There’s some new Covid-19 survey data out of Sweden this week: 0.9% of those tested nationwide had an ongoing infection (that is, positive PCR test) as of April 21-24, 2.3% of those in greater Stockholm (1/n) https://t.co/MbuiNhGR7p
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    A similar survey from March 26 through April 3 found a 2.5% infection rate in the Stockholm area (2/n) https://t.co/6tgJ3JyVde
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    A similar survey from March 26 through April 3 found a 2.5% infection rate in the Stockholm area (2/n) https://t.co/6tgJ3JyVde
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    As @AdamJKucharski pointed out a couple weeks ago, the model assumed that people with Covid-19 would only test positive over a five-day period (at least, I think that’s what he’s saying) 4/n https://t.co/dF8V5XEkXT
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    Meanwhile, a new study out of @IcahnMountSinai finds that people sometimes test positive for SARS-CoV-2 as much as 28 days after their Covid-19 symptoms have gone away 5/n https://t.co/u8IwTILOMg
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    So how many people in the Stockholm region have or have had the coronavirus? If you just take the 1,779 deaths reported so far and assume an 0.5% infection fatality rate, you get 355,800, or 人口15%. Which seems reasonable enough, give or take 5 percentage points
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    In other words, the assertions that Stockholm was or is nearing herd immunity seem to have been wrong. On the other hand, infections and deaths are declining. Even a pretty relaxed social distancing policy can keep Covid-19 more or less in check, it seems.*
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    So was the Swedish approach right? The best argument for it always seemed to be that it avoided lockdown fatigue. But neighboring countries are now easing their lockdowns with far lower infection rates than Sweden … (8?/n; sorry for losing the plot on numbering)
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    … meaning that they may get back to truly normal(ish) life sooner than Sweden, which will presumably still be dealing with Covid-19 cases and even localized outbreaks for a while to come. Plus, a lot more people have died in Sweden
    。 (9 / n)
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    Still, I also think this means that people who freak out at photos of people sitting in parks in New York or going to the barber in Georgia are maybe overestimating how much behavior like that contributes to transmission. 10/10
    — Justin Fox (@foxjust) May 14, 2020

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2020/05/14/sweden-isnt-anywhere-close-to-herd-immunity/

    *Remember that the next time one of these internet gurus tell you to punch or shame someone wearing a face covering.

    • 回复: @SteveK9
    , @KA
  9. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @Swedish Family

    The daily death figures are highly variable and shouldn’t be given any great attention. For what it’s worth (not much), today’s figure was 69

    你从哪里得到这个号码?

    • 回复: @utu
  10. SteveK9 说:

    The epidemic is still of interest, but I’m much more concerned about the long-term effects on our (US) society and economy. We have wrecked our economy and turned most of the people into germaphobes, which previously was considered a mental disorder.

    Some countries have lower death rates and some higher. Sweden is not particularly low, probably because they have very large nursing homes. The different results are going to come down to a lot of different factors. One thing generally missed when discussing the US results, is that the epidemic here, was almost entirely an epidemic in NYC and Northern NJ. The rest of the country had next to nothing, even California. Why? Well that obviously won’t depend on ‘lockdown’ or not, since everyone was ‘locked down’ (or almost). The Chief Medical Officer of the largest hospital chain in the US UPMC, stated that at the PEAK of the epidemic, 2% of their 5,500 hospital beds were treating Covid Patients. The median age of fatality in their system was 83 years of age.

    But, we are hearing that we must have a vaccine, and everyone must be vaccinated. There has not been a successful vaccine for an RNA virus like SARS. In fact, the animal studies demonstrated what is called vaccine-induced enhancement … they got an excessive immune reaction that killed the animals. They will have to give me my vaccine at gunpoint. And, certainly any young person that gets a vaccine developed by our medical overlord, Bill Gates, is taking a huge risk, and is basically out of their mind.

    • 同意: Skeptikal
    • 回复: @Emslander
    , @rj
    , @Skeptikal
  11. SteveK9 说:
    @anon

    Sweden did worse than Germany or Denmark, and much better than Italy, Spain, the UK, and France. Why? We’ll be figuring that out, but it isn’t because of lockdown or not … all of those countries did institute a lockdown.

    • 同意: Digital Samizdat
    • 回复: @bing0
  12. Have there been any preprints published documenting what percentage of Swedes have antibodies? If so, please provide the links because I would like to read them.

    • 回复: @Weston Waroda
  13. @Steve Sailer

    When deaths are compared to number of diagnosed cases, the infection fatality rate (IFR) is high, as much as 5% or more. But when serology studies are done to look at individuals in the population who were exposed to the virus yet didn’t show symptoms, the true IFR is found to be somewhere in the vicinity of the flu, 0.1%, or maybe twice as much or so, but not orders of magnitude more. But what I don’t understand is this: the virus is said to be highly contagious, and yet, when serology studies are done, relatively few in the population are found to have been exposed, even to the point of dismay of the scientists studying it. If it is so highly contagious, what is stopping it from running through the population? Are our lockdowns and social distancing measures really all that effective? I doubt it. Is it possible that a relatively large percentage of the population already has some type of resistance to the virus, for some as yet undiscovered reason? Do populations already have some level of built in herd immunity? If not, what else could account for these observations?

    • 回复: @Ron Unz
    , @Skeptikal
  14. Ron Unz 说:
    @Weston Waroda

    But when serology studies are done to look at individuals in the population who were exposed to the virus yet didn’t show symptoms, the true IFR is found to be somewhere in the vicinity of the flu, 0.1%, or maybe twice as much or so, but not orders of magnitude more.

    No, that’s wrong. All the solid estimates I’ve seen place the IFR in the range of 0.5% to 1%. For example, the NYC and Spain results are around 1% or a bit higher, while Iceland is closer to 0.5%. The enormous datasets from China also fall into this same range.

    IFR下降约0.1%通常是基于对感染率的完全不正确的估计,通常是由于非随机抽样或其他愚蠢的事情所致。

    • 回复: @Emslander
  15. Bill P 说:

    It’s likely that the swine flu pandemic of 2009 killed more people under 40 than coronavirus will, but the stories were not reported. Lots of young Americans died or suffered debilitating illness in 2009. The media paid little attention to these deaths and illnesses.

    I contracted the swine flu in 2009 while in my early 30s. It was the most severe flu I’ve ever had. I was over the worst of it within a few days and didn’t need to see a doctor, but the effects dragged on for nearly two weeks. Never had a flu last anywhere near that long before.

    The strange thing about the H1N1 swine flu is that, like its 1918 ancestor, it barely touched older people. Maybe policy is dictated by who watches the most cable news. Not a good thing IMO.

  16. Quinsat 说:

    Whilst the official narrative no doubt masks numerous Orwellian developments, what strikes me about Covid 19 is its Satanic overtones. Consider social distancing. Opposites are constantly reconciled in cult behaviour and training; be obedient and rebel; left is right; love and hate are one etc. By the same twisted logic, the group (the latin meaning of societas) is simultaneously the non-group whose members are separate from one another. Similarly, to the best of my knowledge, nobody has yet grown the virus in pure media, in healthy mammalian cells and then administered it to experimental subjects with both positive and negative controls (Koch’s Postulates) because, no doubt, no untoward effects would be observed. The disease is thus the non-disease – the thing that will harm you and leave you unaffected. And then there’s the legislation. On March 18th, whilst its population was busy locking down, New Zealand passed the most extreme abortion laws in human history. Babies can now be aborted at full term, days or even hours before birth. There are no requirements for anaesthetic for the child; can you imagine its suffering? The doctor (the healer) and the mother (the life giver) are now reconciled with their demonic opposites – the torturer and the murderer. Apparently, only 2% of the population of New Zealand were in favour of these laws. Governments are being commanded by parties unknown. One trembles to think what further instructions they have in mind.

    • 同意: Emslander, Digital Samizdat, Alden
    • 回复: @jonswift
  17. Ron Unz 说:

    顺便说一下,英国广播公司刚刚报道说,英国对 11,000 人的(显然是随机的)抽样报告的感染率仅为 0.27%:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52662066

    That seems suspiciously low to me, and I’d guess the true figure is several times higher, perhaps because of bias in the sampling or other problems. But I think it does demonstrate that the notion of British being close to “herd immunity” is a total fantasy.

  18. joe2.5 说:

    Meanwhile, Whitney can’t produce a scrap of evidence that presence of an antibody (of any titer?) does not prove that there is any immunity to this specific agent, or that a vaccine would be able to produce it, or that the vaccine itself wouldn’t prove deadly, as we’ve seen in a couple of cases… There is a trong impression developing in the last weeks that patients do not seem to get reinfected in the immediate aftermath of a recent infection, but that’s as far as the data go.

    That Fauci is so crooked he can’t even say a single word without sounding like the snake oil salesman he is does not mean that we know more than that about this coronavirus as of now.

  19. @Ron Unz

    The coronavirus is supposed to be virulent. Why the relatively low incident rate of infection?

  20. I agree with this article 100%, but what I find most puzzling is how Sweden can be so smart about this and so stupid about immigration. Do they think they will develop herd immunity to the people they are allowing into their country?

    • 谢谢: V. K. Ovelund
    • 回复: @Lennart Mogren
  21. @Ron Unz

    The true figure depends on the true denominator. Soon we will know.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  22. Rahan 说:

    If at one point it turns out that this virus, or the one coming on its heels makes childbirth dangerous, or leads to mutations in the fetus, then I guess we’ll know whose agenda this is (stay at home and watch hypno porn while using a dildo, goy, save the world don’t reproduce don’t meet actual people).

    In this case the “herd immunity” approach may be a less civilizationally-friendly approach than the east asian “stamp out viral hotspots and keep the country clean” approach.

    One could well imagine someone like Gates and his ilk cry tears of joy at the thought of saving the planet by such “scientific means”.

    I guess we’ll have to wait and see…

  23. Pft 说:

    我讨厌站在福奇一边,但他是对的。 有抗体并不意味着你有完全的免疫力。 事实上,没有抗体并不意味着你没有被感染。 如果您的先天免疫系统强大并能快速清除病毒,那么适应性免疫系统就没有时间产生抗体。 他们天生免疫。

    那么那些有抗体的人呢? 他们可以免于再次感染,但不一定。

    例如有一种叫做原抗原罪的东西。 已针对原始抗原优化的抗体在再次暴露时可识别轻微突变的抗原。 然而,这种变化足以使抗体不是最佳的。 没有识别出任何差异,它不会像在原始感染中那样经过优化过程。 因此,他们将有更严重的感染。 当您的第二次流感感染与第一次感染的菌株不同时,流感就会发生这种情况。

    还有一种叫做抗体免疫增强的东西。 这在登革热中可见,第一次感染是轻微的,但第二次感染可能是致命的。 尽管知道这一点,他们开发了疫苗,一些自然感染的儿童在接种疫苗后死亡,或者在接种疫苗后暴露于自然登革热后受到严重影响。 50 年前,在儿童实验性疫苗试验中也发现了 RSV。 因此,我们没有 RSV 疫苗。 在使用 SARS 疫苗的动物研究中,我们看到了同样的情况,即再次暴露于该病毒的大鼠遭受了致命的感染。

    令人欣慰的是,人类冠状病毒感染的动物试验被跳过了,所以我们都变成了豚鼠,看看是否有抗体免疫增强。

    也就是说,我同意瑞典的做法,也同意台湾的做法。 风险最高的人会自我封闭。 大多数人永远不会知道他们得到了它。 如果您生病了,请戴上口罩以确保安全。

    数百万年来,人类一直在与病毒打交道。 我们的免疫系统是复杂而有效的,而这些天才们对此并不了解。 不要惹恼大自然。 我们 10% 的 DNA 来自病毒。 我们拥有许多病毒,它们以共生关系帮助我们对抗细菌感染。

    新病毒可能会对某些人造成伤害。 但它们只是一次新病毒。 一旦自然运行,我们就得到了它们的编号。

    让人们在室内远离阳光和维生素 D 并承受压力会降低他们的免疫系统。 显然,一旦解除封锁,可能会出现更多感染,但 60% 的新冠入院病例已被封锁

    • 同意: John Achterhof, Curmudgeon, Vojkan
    • 谢谢: Brás Cubas
    • 回复: @UncommonGround
    , @Curmudgeon
  24. Pft 说:
    @Ron Unz

    罗恩那是当前感染的 PCR 测试。 他们必须进行抗体检测,以确定过去 3 个月内谁感染了它。

    根据 PCR 确认,美国累计率为 0.6%。 目前可能与英国一致,但抗体测试显示波士顿和纽约市 20-40% 的人有抗体

    • 同意: Brewer
    • 回复: @Ron Unz
  25. Alfred 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Today I saw on TV the case of a man who is 29 years old. He survived corvid-19 after weeks in a hospital

    Hospitals are always replete with tragedies. I know. I spent some time in them in different countries. It was pitiful to see teenagers with dreadful health problems. But we are dealing with the health and welfare of billions of people here – not with individual cases.

    Whenever they show children suffering on TV, you can be sure that it is propaganda. They never show Iranian kids dying from leukemia – the drugs cannot be imported because of the US economic war against that country. They never show Yemeni children suffering from starvation because of the NATO blockade of that country.

    What you watched on TV was part of the plan to get everyone under control of Bill Gates and his allies.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  26. Mike1 说:

    You are a tool if you think there is any proof that immunity works. This is a SARS like virus. Is that really hard to understand?!

    If immunity ends up working then great. But lets not pretend we already know.

  27. Pop Warner 说:
    @anon

    Burger King is still open you dolt, just like every other major business. It’s smaller and mid sized businesses that were forced to shut down, but apparently only walmart and amazon are allowed to make money

  28. utu 说:
    @anon

    I keep checking their website every few days and every time their daily death plot looks very similar, i.e., last three four m most recent days have only at most 5, 10, 20 deaths and yet the totals keep changing by 100 or 200. This means that their daily deaths plot is fake. It always looks as if the epidemic ended but they keep adding deaths cases by spreading them over many days back which does not change the plot shape. Why do they report deaths cases with so many days delays? Is Sweden a backward country that some people are dead somewhere in the woods and can’t be found? No, this is because they are data managing their deaths record to produce results that they want to have. Not all doctors are board with the official diagnostic policy and the death certificates are challenged and rewritten to report lower covid-19 mortality by assigning more cases to the died-with-covid category.

    I believe that John Hopkins or Worloometers.Info. daily deaths plots for Sweden better reflect the status of the epidemic than the official Swedish plot. If you believed the Swedish plot the epidemic ended and only new deaths are the ones that somehow were forgotten week or two or three weeks ago and only now they are being added to the plot. The Swedes are engaging in serious shenanigans but hopefully once the audit of the mortality data is done the truth will come out.

    • 巨魔: Achmed E. Newman, Redman
  29. utu 说:
    @Swedish Family

    “…we would simply tell the old and frail to self-isolate…” w/o oxygen.

    • 回复: @Poco
  30. utu 说:
    @anon

    看着 Tidsserie: Avlidna per dag at
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    Last four days it is about 30, 20, 10, 5. Keep looking there every day for next there days and you will notice they update the total but they keep more or less the shape of the graph intact to appear as if the epidemic ended. So most of new cases are old cases that they are spreading around.

  31. Alfred 说:
    @goldhoarder

    29 people less than 25 years old. 372 people 25-44. 3,665 people 45 to 64. 17,011 people 65 to 84. 13.967 people older than 84.

    It is a pity they don’t tell us how obese these younger people were. But that would go against the interests of Coca Cola, Nestlé, McDonalds, Pepsico, GlaxoSmithKline , Pfizer.

    Some years ago, I saw an article in my ex-wife’s “Australian Family Physician”. It is the magazine of the Royal Australian College of General Physicians. The article was about obesity. It did not mention the word “sugar” anywhere. It ended with the following piece of information:

    竞争利益:John B Dixon是澳大利亚雀巢公司的董事会成员,并已从Allergan Inc和Bariatric Advantage获得咨询费。 约翰·B·迪克森(John B Dixon)已从iNova制药公司和默克·夏普&Dohme公司获得了演讲费用,并从iNova制药公司获得了教育演示文稿的开发费用,并从GI Dynamics获得了差旅费。
    种源和同行评审:委托; 外部同行评审。

    Obesity: Recommendations for management in general practice and beyond

    I wrote in to complain that the article was factually incorrect in a number of places. They repeatedly refused to publish my letter and refused to refute my points. Nestlé is one of the biggest buyers of sugar in the world.

    Here is a list of their direct sugar suppliers:

    Supply Chain Disclosure for Sugar (Direct suppliers)

    Obviously, the buy many ingredients that already contain sugar so their total number of suppliers is much greater.

    inova Pharmaceuticals is into the “weight management” business

    inova Pharmaceuticals – Weight Management

    The corruption of the food, medical and pharmaceutical industries is beyond belief.

  32. John Hagan 说:
    @JasonT

    Regarding the billions …

    Any civilization that cannot reverse itself is doomed.

    and from the article I quote …

    ‘The beauty of herd immunity is that every new immune person lessens the risk of anyone catching the virus, young as old, and in time, the virus will have such trouble finding new hosts to spread itself to that it will effectively die out, making public spaces safe again.’

    Let us look at these statements with a few alterations.

    The beauty of civilization is that every new civilized person lessens the risk of anyone regressing into anarchy, young or old, and in time, the anachists will have such trouble finding new adherents to spread to that effectively their chaos will die out, making public spaces safe again.

    Any disease that can be cured is doomed.

    So who is right on both counts Sweeden or the US?

  33. Alfred 说:
    @UncommonGround

    According to the data provided by the Johns Hopkins University, the number of death in Sweden in the last days increases again.

    Do a search on Google for – site:www.gatesfoundation.org “johns hopkins” – and you will get pages of donations to that dishonest university by the Gates’ fake charity.

    Here is the real data from Sweden and it shows a very different story:

    1- Number of people admitted to intensive care – dropping dramatically over past 4 weeks

    2- Number sick by age group – those 50-59 most numerous

    3- Number of deaths by age group – almost no one under 60

    And here is what those countries that have locked down are going to face in the future – when they reopen:

    Texas Sees Record Jump In COVID-19 Deaths 2 Weeks Into Reopening

    It seems that the economies have been destroyed without saving any lives – quite the opposite when those neglected because of closed hospitals is taken into account. 🙁

    • 谢谢: Miro23
  34. Dumbo 说:

    Still this story… They are not any close to “herd immunity”, likely because the virus is much less contagious or dangerous than we’ve been led to believe. This whole thing about “asymptomatic super spreaders” is bollocks. Also it’s likely that the tests cannot always differentiate this Covid virus from other coronaviruses. So it’s probable that many results are false positives. Herd immunity will not come anytime soon, and it’s not even guaranteed, as this type of viruses tend to mutate.

    Did Sweden do the right thing? Well, compared to the incompetence of most other Western countries, probably, but not because of “herd immunity”, but simply because it was stupid to quarantine healthy people and close down all the economy without having enough data to justify it.

    But it seems to me that Japan and Korea did things better, and they did not even do a “lockdown”, most people continued to work and even many cafes and restaurants remained open.

    Anyway, I’m convinced that the real “virus” here was the lockdown, all this was implemented as a laboratory to test technologies of control and authoritarian measures over the masses, and the virus was the perfect excuse.

    The masses replied beautifully. All obedient, putting on their muzzles, I mean masks. Staying home waiting orders. Herded here and there. Now they will slowly be let out, but tagged with microchips and vaccinated by force.

    Like cattle. That’s how the elite likes it. Good cattle. Obedient all the way to the slaughterhouse.

    • 同意: JasonT, Bro43rd, Robert Dolan
    • 回复: @Wielgus
    , @Karel
    , @onebornfree
  35. GMC 说:

    When is someone going to question the facts that there are hundreds of bioWeapons labs and that these labs are the ones who fully understand what they – themselves- unleashed. This virus will stop , when those spreading it – say so. And how many in the US Government are ” insider Traders and Traitors” that have known all along about this virus and the ones before it. This is the key to stopping the destruction of the human rights that are under seige – today. Doctors should be asking this question , since they too, are dying from it.

  36. Well, well! I see that the lockdown-cult, the Branch Covidians (“We ain’t comin’ out!”), is well represented on this thread.

    It’s all well and good to quibble over nursing-home deaths in Sweden, but realize that some places (such as Britain and NY) with even the strictest lockdowns have had exactly the same problem. It turns out that ‘isolating’ the general population does the nursing homes no good, unless the homes themselves can somehow be isolated 一般人群。

    Also, those promoting New Zealand as a model have to answer this question: now that the Kiwis seem to have permanently beaten the virus, how do they plan to keep themselves safe from it in the future? Do they plan on never allowing anyone to enter/leave the country again? Remember, my friends: there is no vaccine and there may never be one. And in the absence of a vaccine, herd immunity is the 仅由 免疫。

    … the WHO has been spreading false rumors about herd immunity trying to muddy the science since it doesn’t jibe with their pro-vaccine agenda.

    I know, and its the most brain-dead rumor I’ve ever heard. I mean, if nobody gains immunity through exposure to the virus itself, then how’s a vaccine against the virus supposed to work in the first place?

    More five-o’clock-follies from the WHO:

    “This idea that, ‘well, maybe countries who had lax measures and haven’t done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation,” the WHO’s Executive Director of Health Emergencies Mike Ryan said on a call with reporters.

    Have these idiots changed their story yet 再次? Just two weeks ago they were characterizing Sweden as a “model”. What fickle souls those WHO experts!

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/

    • 回复: @anon
  37. padre 说:
    @anon

    The article is not a comparison, it is about immunity!

  38. karel 说:

    18 Ron Unz You are absolutely right on this issue. The delusional aspect of herd immunity to covid-19 was already peddled at times when almost nothing was known about how immunity to this virus may develop and how long it will be effective to prevent re-infection.

  39. Ron Unz 说:
    @Pft

    罗恩那是当前感染的 PCR 测试。 他们必须进行抗体检测,以确定过去 3 个月内谁感染了它。

    Thanks, you’re 100% correct. I’d only glanced at the BBC story, and didn’t realize it was referring to a PCR test, measuring current infections.

    • 回复: @Syd Walker
  40. Alfred 说:
    @Ron Unz

    the BBC just reported that an (apparently random) sampling of 11,000 people in British reported an infection rate of just 0.27%

    The British Bullshit Corporation just won’t stop spreading information viruses. The reality is that there is as yet no antibody test in the UK. The PCR test is absolutely useless as everyone should know by now.

    Frontline workers, including those in the NHS, will be the first to get a new antibody test for Covid-19, England’s deputy chief medical officer has said. (May 14)

    Government approved COVID-19 antibody test a way off general use (May 14)

    In Sweden they have a totally different understanding:

    Tegnell: We are doing two major investigations. We may have those results this week or a bit later in May. We know from modeling and some data we have already – these data are a little uncertain – that we probably had a transmission peak in Stockholm a couple of weeks ago, which means that we are probably hitting the peak of infections right about now. We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.

    What’s the latest from Sweden? (April 28)

    I am glad I will not be in Norway for a miserable “syttende mai”. I hope it is nice and sunny so that they will know that Nature is punishing them for believing Bill Gates. 🙂

    Norway cities cancel much-loved National Day celebrations

    • 回复: @Yngvar
  41. mike99588 说:

    Who is ahead depends on how you define groups (national vs other social “tribes”), and immunity.

    Antibodies are one piece of the immune system puzzle. More broadly classed, are innate vs adaptive immune responses, of which antibodies fall into the adaptive responses category.

    Rather than classify by nation, I would classify groups by patient methodology for prophylaxis and treatment. (Formerly) industrialized nations tend to have “mainstream medicine” systems that often are somewhat related, and some alternative medicine variants, either local, traditional or more recent developments.

    From where I sit, for strengthening and (re)building innate and adaptive immunity, the orthomolecular-“megavitamin”-functional-nutritional-nutraceutical medicine people have been way ahead. Many nutrients are of special interest, like zinc, magnesium, “mega”vitamin C and D, quercetin, flavonoids generally, resveratrol, N-acetyl cysteine, melatonin.

    维生素C http://doctoryourself.com/role%20of%20AA%20in%20covid%2019.pdf
    维生素D https://vitamindwiki.com/COVID-19+treated+by+Vitamin+D+-+studies%2C+reports%2C+videos

    • 同意: Alfred
  42. Wielgus 说:
    @Dumbo

    I have often wondered whether the tests they administer can really tell the other corona viruses out there (some of which produce illnesses of about the same lethality as the common cold) from Covid-19.


  43. I hope I am not being redundant but Dr. Johan Giesecke makes an essential point, in the above video, which I think has been missed in the above discussion.
    He says that the death rate will turn out to be not much different in Sweden in comparison to other countries OVER THE LONG RUN. In other words you can’t stop it, obviously, so it’s going to play out for years and their strategy in Sweden is to play the longer game and get exposure to it.

    YOU CAN’T STOP IT
    If you look at the figures on
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    and look at the final column on the right there, Tests/1M pop and correlate that with the number Total Cases, what becomes apparent is that the main factor driving the number of total cases is, how many people have been tested, and that’s why the countries with the highest number of cases are the countries that have done the most tests. Therefore when we look at the developing nations who don’t have the resources to do many tests we must be suspicious about how many cases they really have. In other words there’s probably 40M cases not 4M and there’s no way they going to get rid of it, so it will always bounce back.
    DESTROYING THE ECONOMY
    New Zealand (I am a Kiwi) is going to have some serious economic problems that have not even begun yet really, and their level 4 lockdown didn’t achieve any better results than Australia who did a Level 3 lockdown. Now New Zealand is talking about a ridiculous “stimulus” package which is full socialist central planning of the entire economy (although to be fair, their model of basically subcontracting the running of the economy out to the govt central bank operated banking cartel to explode asset prices is a billion miles away from being a free-market capitalist economy anyway but….), by “borrowing” from the vicious central bank controlled fractional reserve banking system, apparently an amount equivalent to \$40,000 per household. It’s going to double their national debt. Economically literate people understand why this is doomed to fail. The tooth fairy does not exist so they are taking from the losers and giving to the winners (again!) to create fictitious jobs for imaginary demand, and of course trying to prop up the insane debt creation machine of the banking system with more money created out of thin air. Tourism constitutes 10% of their GDP. You can’t make up for lost real earnings from overseas tourists bringing in real funds (effectively export earnings) by borrowing money into existence and spending it. And they can’t open their doors for tourism again because the moment they do, the virus will just come straight back in again. So where does that leave them?
    In other words we have to compare the Swedish strategy which is aiming to win out over the long run. Australia and New Zealand that have supposedly defeated the virus (which is more to do with the fact that they have very low population density than anything else in my opinion), have basically destroyed a significant part of their economies AND IT WON’T BE COMING BACK, for a long time, perhaps forever.

    • 同意: Bro43rd, Alfred, Brewer
    • 回复: @Miro23
  44. Antibody testing and PCR results combined will not give the complete picture of the infected proportion in any population.
    As the majority of infected people are symptom-free, and antibodies only develop in infected AND symptomatic people over a sufficiently long course of time (Day 6 to Day 17), what happens to those who had no knowledge of contracting the virus? I would even put those with a two-day illness to this category. Non-measurable antibody titers will be there.
    The key is cellular immunity, CD8+ cytotoxic lymphocytes are the first to respond. Cytotoxic immunity also has its own memory which lasts for years (see HepB).
    Just that it is vastly more difficult and long to test that (using an ELISPOT assay e.g.).
    Did anyone pay attention in the biomedical community to an earlier report in Nature Medicine describing the immune response over time in a patient in Australia about CD8+ cell response. This was quite clearly described. Many other corroborating findings support that the “silent” part of any tested population might have had the disease just that their strong initial cellular immunity did its job well.
    As to the antibody-dependent enhancement, it is the reason why the FeCoV feline coronavirus vaccine is officially not proposed to cat owners (even if Pfizer markets it for years) by a UK feline vaccination expert panel.
    The clinical cases of Kawasaki-arteritis, neuroCOVID and others are strikingly similar to what we have decyphered to happen in cats infected with their coronavirus, the FeCoV, over longer time scales of years.

  45. Realist 说:

    在豁免竞赛中,瑞典领先

    Sadly they also lead the race to allow immigration of blacks and middle easterners into their country to rape and kill their citizens.

    • 谢谢: V. K. Ovelund
  46. SafeNow 说:

    The generic “preexisting conditions” term is used because of political correctness. Hospitalized covid patients suffer from hypertension (about 50%), obesity (45%), and diabetes (35%). These are all treatable and fixable, but the failure to do so lies with the medical delivery system, and with the patients. Acknowledging that severe Covid cases correlate highly at X% with treatable, neglected, unmanaged conditions would be a bitter pill to swallow. Similarly, proponents of protecting a particular age cohort are using a standard that is, in the parlance of constitutional lawyers, both over-inclusive and under-inclusive. Further, the terms “a vaccine” and “the vaccine” are used, rather than “a possible vaccine,” which Inglesby of Hopkins candidly used on Chris Wallace last Sunday. Further, adjectival language is used rather than stating the magnitude, as in “substantially more” masks are needed. Words used to matter, and be straightforward and forthcoming, but in an age of lying and controlled explanations, this has changed.

  47. @anon

    “….the Bill of Rights contains no emergency or crisis exception.

    那是因为我们的祖先知道,历史上危机和紧急情况是人们在自己的政府手中失去自由的历史悠久的方式。 在这种时候,人们会变得害怕,他们的自然倾向是指望政府来保证他们的安全。

    They forget that the biggest threat to their liberty is their very own government, as reflected in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Thus, they eagerly trade away their liberty for “security.” Later, when the crisis or emergency has passed, they discover that the government is unwilling to give up the power it has acquired over them.”

    From: “Three Reminders From The Bill Of Rights”:
    https://www.fff.org/2020/05/13/there-reminders-from-the-bill-of-rights/

    “问候” onebornfree

    • 回复: @Orville H. Larson
  48. Sude 说:
    @Swedish Family

    Ono of the reasons Sweden went along with its strategy was that the initial main infektion spreaders where the Somali refugies in an area northwest of the Capital city Stockholm. The infection can even be traced in the suer system as recorded in the paper DN.

    In order to improve the labour statistics for the group the Social Democrats a couple of years ago started the program ”more hands in the workplace”. The somalis ended up as unwanted extra resources in almost all homes for the elderly in Stockholm.

    You can see the results in the statistics. There are homes where more than half of the elderly have died. One journalist has written about the connection.

  49. Karel 说:
    @Dumbo

    36 dumbo I suspect that you know fuck all about the specificity or accuracy of the availble tests. how many patients have you tested and what are your results?

    • 回复: @Herald
  50. Emslander 说:
    @SteveK9

    The epidemic is still of interest, but I’m much more concerned about the long-term effects on our (US) society and economy. We have wrecked our economy and turned most of the people into germaphobes, which previously was considered a mental disorder.

    Spot on! Everybody who believes that normal life should never have been subjected to a lockdown should have a disclaimer programmed into their comments that says, “This is a serious epidemic that caught the world off guard and has caused many people severe sickness and death, like any epidemic of flu.”

    This comment adopts that language. However, the most serious long-term tragedies are being caused by government action. During the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic the United States sent an army to Europe, fought in a World War, negotiated a peace and returned the army to the country. Businesses continued to operate, farms were farmed and a strong economic recovery followed in the decade of the 1920’s. The effects of the Spanish Flu were multiple times as strong as our current virus.

    We haven’t even begun to reap the economic whirlwind from these shutdowns.

  51. Hegar 说:

    “allow younger, low-risk people to interact freely so they’d contract the virus and develop the antibodies they’d need to fight future infections. That was the plan and it worked like a charm.”

    No. Sweden has no law that allows the government to quarantine the people. That was why there was no quarantine.

    And it wouldn’t be possible anyway since the police no longer enforce the law when it comes to non-violent crimes. When people report a burglary, absolutely nothing is done – the police don’t even come out to look at the crime scene, if it’s for example a summer cabin. So how would the police enforce a quarantine? The Social Democrats and their communist allies long ago made sure sentencing is extremely low, a joke. The immigrant gang rapists the socialists rely on for votes – otherwise the (cuckservative) Right would have won every national election after the 1990s – can get off with only six months of “therapy” and picking up trash at the central bus station, while still living at home and laughing at their victim. So…

    …What do you think the sentence for violating quarantine would be? A symbolic fine, meaning that the police would ignore the crime. Immigrant, socialist-voting neighborhoods would do whatever they wanted, ignoring the quarantine, and that would be impossible to hide from the outside world.

    Plus, as I said, there is no law that allows a quarantine.

    That is not to say that Sweden’s semi-quarantine, if we call it that, has been a disaster. It hasn’t. And the Swedish people, now that they are used to this, would never agree to a quarantine in this late stage.

  52. Hegar 说:

    “In other words, this is highly-contagious infection that poses little or no threat to most people.”

    Um, even by Giesecke’s own words, it DOES pose a threat to at least one or two percent of the population. It’s actually far more than that who will have negative effects from the virus. One guy who has worked at an institute is not The Truth just because you pick and choose among interviews.

    So one to two percent of a population hospitalized at the same time, and causing nurses and doctors to be quarantined, and many of them dying, and others get lung problems for life. How does that work out for a country? Look at Italy.

    Luckily Sweden DOES have measures against the virus. Commuting is down by 60%, for example. There are cautionary measures everywhere.

  53. Emslander 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Estimates?

    What about actual measurements? In nearly every case where large numbers are tested, such as Germany, the actual rate of mortality is far below 1%.

    • 回复: @Weston Waroda
  54. Poco 说:
    @utu

    The old and frail should self isolate regardless of whether we shoot for population immunity or we lockdown. Correct?

  55. Anonymous[336]• 免责声明 说:
    @Alfred

    So heartbreaking. G. K. Chesterton put it this way: “Journalism is a false picture of the world, thrown upon a lighted screen in a darkened room so that the real world is not seen.”

  56. WJ 说:
    @anon

    Is there a rational answer besides herd immunity? A vaccine that might never come? NZ and Hong Kong will essentially have to shut their borders forever to prevent the re-introduction of the virus. I’m fine with doing that in the USA but too many people hate white people in this country to allow that to happen.

    • 回复: @Tubib Thawr
    , @Emily
  57. anonymous[144]• 免责声明 说:
    @UncommonGround

    This comment is from a Gates employee, agent of (((Satan))), or just another bloody fool. Stay your punk, liberal arts major ass at home and collect your UBI like a good parasite. Let others go out and pay the bills that you and your ilk run up. Just remember if the SHTF and we have 1789., 1917 or Cambodia Year Zero, you and your weak pathetic ilk will be the first to go. You won’t be the commissars, as you no doubt intend. No, the weak and traitorous will be the first to fill the lime-laced trenches, comrade

    • 哈哈: Digital Samizdat
  58. @Dumbo

    “The masses replied beautifully. All obedient, putting on their muzzles, I mean masks. Staying home waiting orders. Herded here and there. Now they will slowly be let out, but tagged with microchips and vaccinated by force.Like cattle. That’s how the elite likes it. Good cattle. Obedient all the way to the slaughterhouse.”

    “事实是,普通人对自由的热爱是虚构的十分之九,就像他对理性,正义和真理的热爱一样。 有空的时候,他实际上并不快乐。 他很不舒服,有点惊慌,并且难以忍受的孤独。 对于广大人民来说,自由不是一回事。 它是少数,无可争议的少数人的专有财产,例如知识,勇气和荣誉。 要理解和享受自由,就需要一种特殊的人,而他在民主社会中通常是非法的。” HL门肯

    “The American moron’s mind simply does not run in that direction; he wants to keep his Ford, even at the cost of losing the Bill of Rights” H.L. Mencken

    “那种希望政府采纳并执行自己的思想的人永远是那种思想愚蠢的人。” HLMencken

    此致onebornfree

  59. @WJ

    In my view the logical answer is not easy to execute on a national level and also not easy to test: reinforce natural immunity (think about Vit D3, prebiotics and sleep). But this is anathema in the current, extraprofit-oriented pharma and food production world.

  60. Sweden isn’t an island (rhetorically speaking), therefore, it can’t avoid consequences of poor decisions made by a world gone bonkers … it should have chugged along like the rest of Europe to avoid the ire and wrath of the Gates and Soros of the world to avoid opprobrium.

    • 回复: @Alfred
  61. Saggy 说: • 您的网站

    在大流行中,免疫是无可替代的,因为免疫可以提供最好的保护以防止再次感染。

    Is this imbecile totally unaware of how the virus has been contained in China, South Korea, and other countries?

    • 回复: @Alfred
  62. Emily 说:
    @WJ

    I have close relatives in New Zealand.
    New Zealand is hugely dependent now, on tourism.
    Closing their borders long term will be a disaster to both business and jobs.
    There has been very little Covid in New Zealand.
    Many of the population feel that closing down has been vastly overdone and there is some anger.
    No herd immunity there – not even a whiff.
    Looks like sheep to a Bill Gates big pharma slaughter – options are hard to see.
    If, of course, there is the poison created.
    New Zealand is between a rock and a very hard place it seems.

  63. Patricus 说:

    Are there any facts that most who study the issue agree upon?

    As businesses continue to close, and paychecks cease, and food shortages develop, there will be some angry outbursts. Probably a good idea to clean guns and stock up on ammunition. It puzzles me how herd immunity or a potential vaccine justifies economic catastrophe and possible hunger and rioting.

  64. Wally 说:
    @JasonT

    – 两个月前:
    在我们拉平曲线以挽救我们的医疗保健系统之前无法开放
    - 一个月前:
    在我们有疫苗之前不能开放
    - 几天之前:
    Can’t open until we have 疫苗
    - 昨天:
    在没有治愈方法之前无法打开。
    - 今天:
    只有在拜登获胜的情况下才能开放。

    • 谢谢: Weston Waroda
    • 哈哈: Digital Samizdat, Miro23
  65. anon53 说:

    This article is completely false.
    Sweden and UK have the worst epidemic performance in W Europe.
    It rate of new cases has increased slowly since it leveled off six weeks ago.
    Other nations have reduced new cases 90 – 98%.
    That is not “immunity” it is foolishness. Claiming that this “leads the pack” is foolish.

    Check your data:
    1. At 91-divoc dot com/pages/covid-visualization/:
    Go to third graphic down (new cases per million), select Highlight, choose Sweden.
    Notice that Every Other Country in Europe except UK is doing far better.
    Some immunity there.

    2. At arcgis dot com/apps/opsdashboard/: (wait a while for the data to load)
    Select Sweden in the list at left (wait for data to load)
    Select tab Daily Cases at lower right to see daily cases.
    Some immunity there.

    Now look at the data for Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany. See? Sweden is the second worst in All Of Europe.
    Whoever is promoting Sweden as an example is a propagandist.
    Sure, they miraculously got “herd immunity” without any vaccine.
    Just let the vulnerable die and steal their pension savings.

    • 回复: @Alden
  66. [T]he future prospects for an entire generation of young people have been obliterated.

    我对此表示怀疑。

    … allowing certain businesses to remain open …

    This is what has happened in most of the United States, too, not only in Sweden.

  67. @Anonymous

    “If I had my way, I would hang every reporter in the world, but I am sure we would be hearing reports from Hell before breakfast.” – William Tecumseh Sherman.

  68. Longfisher 说:

    For those who advocate the end of lock-downs and, in the process, disregard the opinions and guidance of health professionals, preach libertarianism, freedoms and self-reliance as if those traits had anything at all to do with this highly dangerous virus I say…

    Go ahead and immerse yourselves in the rivers of infection that are out there and take your and your family’s and friends’ chances.

    Your ignorant actions don’t say”Give me libery or give me death”, but rather “Give me liberty AND death”. With great certainty, death completely and permanently cures stupid.

    Again, don’t let me stop you. Losing the stupid among us will very likely substantially increase the average IQ of the nation.

    • 回复: @peterike
    , @UK
    , @Poco
    , @Curmudgeon
  69. joecbart 说:

    I tried posting this article on Facebook and I received the following Facebook Error:

    “您的消息无法发送,因为它包含Facebook上其他人报告为滥用的内容。”

    Is it just me or is Facebook refusing outright to post this informative article?

    • 回复: @Poco
    , @Digital Samizdat
  70. @Pft

    数百万年来,人类一直在与病毒打交道。

    Yes and no, I believe. Epidemics and pandemics begun to exist and to affect men only after cities were built. That means that we have had them for only a few thousend years and not millions of years. Before that they didn’t exist. If someone got an agressive virus, only a few people would die and after that the virus wouldn’t spread any more. We have now a different situation for which we aren’t really prepared. A virus now can spread through the whole Earth and possibly has the chance to mutate more often and faster than previously.

  71. @Emslander

    What about actual measurements? In nearly every case where large numbers are tested, such as Germany, the actual rate of mortality is far below 1%.

    Unz is referencing numbers from the PCR diagnostic test for active covid infection that were initially used for the denominator. The true picture of the IFR is found with serology tests for the presence of antibodies to the virus in the general population. Serology tests demonstrate a much lower death rate, as you point out. Unz has found all kinds of reasons to reject these serology test results since they have become available, but now we have one with 100% accuracy, no false positives and no false negatives. Nevertheless, I doubt that those who accept lockdowns as an effective way to stop an epidemic that is already spreading within the community will be convinced by the emerging data because they are unwilling to let go of their own ideologies.

    • 同意: Skeptikal
  72. @Weston Waroda

    Your link goes to the 国际商业时报“, Mr. Waroda, but with no article found. Could you update it, or better yet (as I don’t usually click on links that I’m not told a little bit more about), could you explain how this number of infected people will be known soon? Thanks.

    • 回复: @Weston Waroda
  73. Longfisher 说:

    “allow younger, low-risk people to interact freely so they’d contract the virus and develop the antibodies they’d need to fight future infections. That was the plan and it worked like a charm.”

    荒谬的。

    We have and have had substantial experience with coronaviruses, in general. COVID-19 is a coronavirus.

    That experience is replete with reinfections. THINK! How many of us have caught a cold or flu almost every fall / winter? How many of us have to take a flu vaccine every year because the coronavirus which causes the flu mutates and is sufficiently different from its progenitors?

    How in the world did neither we nor the Swedes develop herd immunity to the flu and the common cold by now after all these centuries? Given that, what’s the probability that this much more virulent coronavirus will not follow the examples of other members of that genus? I’d say no chance at all.

    • 回复: @UK
    , @Emily
  74. RoatanBill 说:

    The comments here are better than the article and represent the lock down advocates and those that want their freedom. Both sides using gov’t statistics (and we all know how accurate they are) based on proxy tests that vary by country and even within regions of larger countries comparing apples (Sweden) to oranges (USA). With the US in particular wanting to label every death possible as a Covid fatality, why would anyone argue over numbers?

    The basis of the numbers is so flawed as to be useless except as a propaganda tool or to push a narrative.

    Lets be honest. No test short of a scanning electron microscope analysis of each patient is reliable. Even that test, should it discover THE virus, was a conclusion based upon the analysts interpretation of what he’s looking at and still doesn’t prove THE virus is responsible for the illness. Getting the DNA of THE virus discovered would nail it down that THE virus is present, but still proves little.

    This fiasco is the perfect mechanism to implement all sorts of new laws and mores based upon nothing more than some bogus expert’s opinion and fatally flawed numbers. This is a manufactured crisis using a real but not too serious faux pandemic to distract the public while the finance types loot the country with first access to newly instantiated dollars while the public is locked down so as to not interfere in their plans.

    You have to hand it to them, TPTsB are genius level evil scum to invent this theater of the absurd.

    • 同意: Skeptikal
    • 回复: @Redman
  75. ATTENTION ALL IDJUT FACE MASK WEARERS! View before its taken off YT!

    Important Info on The Importance of Face Masks Until Bill Gates Has Vaccine Ready To Sell”

    此致onebornfree

    • 同意: Agent76
  76. Curmudgeon 说:
    @Ron Unz

    I think we all have to step back and reset.
    In any other year, cold and flu (corona) viruses circulate. The chances are, that you have come in contact with someone who has been infected, symptomatic or not. You may “catch” that flu/cold from someone who has, or has not become symptomatic. How severe that cold/flu is, is person dependent.
    There is no testing done normally, so we don’t know how widespread these “normal” cold/flu viruses are. There are years I haven’t had colds or flus, even though someone in the home, wife or kids, had one. There are years I had a cold or flu, but someone in the home did not. The simple truth is that we are unwittingly exposed to diseases all the time. Whether we become symptomatic is an entirely different question.
    Every year, thousands of elderly people die in nursing homes from the flu. Why? because people in nursing homes have poorly functioning immune systems. My M-I-L’s nursing home went into lock down just before Christmas 2018, because of an “outbreak”. Only family of dying patients were admitted. The lock down was lifted mid January 2019. This is absolutely normal in nursing homes in my city.
    The only thing that higher test rates have done is show that infection rates are higher than anticipated. The actual number of deaths 造成的 Covid 19 is in the range of a very “bad” flu season. Much has been made of the US aircraft carrier being infected. There was also a French naval ship infected. Last time I heard, of the 2000+ crew members that tested positive on both ships, there has been 1 death reported, and there was no information as to whether there were underlying medical conditions.
    I am aware others have posted this link previously. It was a real eye opener when I first started following it about 5 weeks ago. https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

  77. Curmudgeon 说:
    @Pft

    我讨厌站在福奇一边,但他是对的。

    在这一点上,他是。

  78. Bathory 说:

    Sweden never chose it’s approach because Sweden never had a choice. So they “chose” to do what they thought they could still get away with in the eyes of the Swedish public and the outside world. Lots of perception management. Sadly, it seems to be working with regard to the Swedish public. Approval ratings for the Social Democrats are way up, in particular among women. So much for women possessing a caring attitude. Maybe it’s not so easy anymore with the outside world. Denmark has announced that Swedes may not be allowed to enter the country over the summer season.

    Sweden cannot impose any kind of lockdown on it’s immigrant-heavy suburbs. It’s the same as in France apart from the Swedish government being more concerned about TV images of rioting immigrant youth. People in these suburbs live in cramped conditions. The problem is with the young males. It’s impossible for them to stay inside. They would start attacking other family members instead of being out and about and doing their usual gangland things. Just shutting down non-essential businesses is not possible either. Immigrants have all but taken over the taxi business, they run their kiosks, kebab and barber shops, mobile phone outlets etc etc all over the place – if there is any national dish in Sweden then it’s kebab pizza. The typical immigrant has a large family and is no less indebted than the typical Swede. They may live in cheaper housing but they take on more consumer debt. Driving around in a big car and having a big leather sofa and a big wide screen in their living room is very important for them. The difference is that they have sons, lots of them, they can and will mobilize if the state does not let them do their business.

    Lockdowns would not work either in far-flung rural areas where people live in scattered dwellings with almost no state-power at all being present at any time. That’s what Sweden mostly consists of purely geographically.

    The funny thing is that Sweden is totally honest about what it’s doing. They say that they are reducing the spread, which is true if one disregards the care home situation. Some regions have actually done better than Stockholm with regard to the care homes, some of them much better. Also, they explicitly deny that they are pursuing herd immunity. Why bother formulating a strategy if you do not have a choice? It’s the outside world, people like Whitey, who keep projecting their ideologically motivated preconceptions onto Sweden.

    There are so many horror stories coming out of Sweden, here is one:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/langtidssjuka-isabel-behover-lakarvard-nekas-av-vardcentralen

    It’s the public service TV channel reporting on a young woman with persistent Covid-19 symptoms who can’t get a PCR test. According to this report, it’s not an isolated case.

  79. Alfred 说:
    @Really No Shit

    Sweden … should have chugged along like the rest of Europe to avoid the ire and wrath of the Gates and Soros of the world to avoid opprobrium.

    Sweden was smart enough to keep out of WW1, WW2 and the Finland/USSR wars. No mean diplomatic achievement. The Jewish family that owns much of the media collaborated with the Nazis as did all the upper class. After WW2, they became “victims” like their cousins in Poland. 🙂

    • 回复: @Really No Shit
  80. @UncommonGround

    Lequawn James…knows firsthand that COVID-19 can also cause serious health complications for those who are young and don’t have pre-existing health conditions

    He didn’t die LOL. So we gotta have more lockdown so people don’t die.

    I don’t believe in Treyvan Martin. I don’t believe in Achmed Robbery. I don’t believe in Lequawn James.

  81. Agent76 说:

    19年2020月XNUMX日,朱迪·米科维茨(Judy Mikovitz)博士主持的福奇真相(The Truth About Fauci)

    Mikovits博士与人类逆转录病毒学领域的先驱Frank Ruscetti开始了长达20年的合作。 1983年,她帮助Russetti博士分离出HIV病毒,并将其与#AIDS相关联。

    16年2020月XNUMX日,罗恩·保罗(Ron Paul)博士访谈:比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)和托尼·福西(Tony Fauci)决心通过疫苗来统治世界

    保罗和斯皮罗博士讨论了当前的冠状病毒危机以及影响数百万美国人的政治,社会和经济影响,因为人们开始对政府的锁定反应表现出抵抗。

    3 年 2016 月 XNUMX 日 疫苗、佐剂和自身免疫

    第 14 场:第四届国际疫苗研讨会,德国莱比锡,4 年 2016 月。

  82. @karel

    Sweden cases per 1m 2,830 deaths per 1m 349
    Czech rep. cases per 1 m 780 deaths per 1 m 27

    Czechoslovakia?
    瑞典:349
    纽约:1410
    新泽西州:1120
    马萨诸塞州:795
    康涅狄格州:903
    路易斯安那州:520
    密西根州:479

  83. peterike 说:
    @Longfisher

    Go ahead and immerse yourselves in the rivers of infection that are out there and take your and your family’s and friends’ chances.

    Wow, “rivers of infection.” Did you use up your entire purple crayon writing this comment?

    Anyway, I’d love to get out there in those rivers of infection, but there’s no place to go.

    Again, don’t let me stop you. Losing the stupid among us will very likely substantially increase the average IQ of the nation.

    Thank goodness for compassionate minded people like you.

  84. UK 说:
    @Longfisher

    Absolutely, especially if you remain locked in your basement for the rest of yours days. I only ask that instead of sending you free money, I can just make the redistributive payment directly to PornHub and cut out the middle man.

  85. @Achmed E. Newman

    https://www.ibtimes.com/covid-19-testing-breakthrough-new-coronavirus-antibody-test-found-be-100-accurate-2976029

    The link shows the new serology test developed by Roche is 100% accurate. You can also do a search for coronavirus serology test 100% and lots of articles will come up.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  86. UK 说:
    @Longfisher

    We have a very high degree of herd immunity to the flu.

  87. utu 说:
    @karel

    Mike Whitney keeps peddling demagoguery to libertarians. Here is the plot of covid death per capita for Sweden compared with other small countries of Europe like Czech Republic.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @karel
  88. 450.org 说:

    I have to laugh out loud every time Sweden is used by so-called “conservatives” as a positive example of anything. It’s such a contradiction. It’s a no go for them and they should no better. But they don’t. To them, there’s no such thing as a contradiction.

    The implication is, socialism guarantees immunity to this novel virus. The socialist and communist countries are faring much better against this pandemic than are western capitalist countries. Hell, Russia should have remained communist. If it had, its numbers of afflicted and dead would be way down. Instead, they’re way up. It’s the price you pay for kleptocratic capitalism. Liar, liar, your ventilators are on fire.

    https://news.yahoo.com/russias-coronavirus-outbreak-became-one-104024690.html

    Russian President Vladimir Putin eased the nationwide lockdown imposed on March 30 to stem the spread of the coronavirus, even as Russia becomes Europe’s new hotspot for the infection. With more than 250,000 cases as of May 15, Russia now has the second-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world.

    Let me guess. Putin is faking it. He’s part of the hoax. He and Bill Gates are great pals. They’re in this together. Good grief.

    查看有关的帖子 imgur.com

    • 回复: @Alfred
    , @glib
  89. ‘Ere we frickin’ go [ 🤮 ]:

    Private, Hold Him Down. Corporal, Inject Him”-

    Donald Trump: We’re Mobilizing Military to Distribute Future Coronavirus Vaccine:

    “Our military is now being mobilized so at the end of the year we’re going to be able to give it to a lot of people very, very rapidly,” the president said in an interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, which aired on Thursday morning.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/14/donald-trump-were-mobilizing-military-to-distribute-future-coronavirus-vaccine/

    “问候”,长生不老

    • 回复: @gsjackson
  90. Che Guava 说:

    It is an unpleasant surprise to see utu in the ranks of the virus panic crowd.

    I am not sure, but think that I caught the kung flu before New Year’s Eve last year, that is the day I came down with a heavy cold.

    My work is usually in Ueno, Tokyo, and there are usually many Chinese tourists, and no masks at the time.

    When the holiday (very boring, tired all of the time) ended, I went to my doc., he took a swab for a non-corona flu test, it was negative.

    Of course, for anyone who has checked, 15 to 20% of ‘flu cases in any year are from a Corona virus, as are some portion of what are diagnosed as common cold.

    I did not recover for about eight weeks, OTOH, never sick enough to not work enough.

    The kung-flu narrative (my close friend from mainland China is finding the reference amusing) is a lie, on so many levels, as is the narrative of its effects etc.

    だまされたなあ!

  91. WGary 说:

    The biggest problem people seem to have with the term “herd immunity” is that we don’t like to think of ourselves as part of a herd, even or perhaps especially, when we behave that way. So why don’t we just come up with a new term to describe the same thing? Maybe we could call it “societal immunity” or “community immunity”. I’m sure one of the smart people visiting this site could come up with a term that would accurately describe what we’re talking about without giving offense.

  92. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @anon

    China is actually the brilliant example…

    That says it all…Sweden, with nearly 4,000 deaths, has nearly as many deaths as China, which has a population more than 100 times bigger…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory

    I’ve lost all respect for the total clown Whitney…he has no business talking about hings like ‘immunity’ because he doesn’t know diddly about viruses or medicine…

    Right here on this website we have a frequent commenter who is an emergency physician [and a graduate of West Point]…’The Scalpel’…

    He worked for over a month at a special corona hospital in Florida, alongside his regular job at an emergency department at his home hospital…we also have another commenter here ‘AnonFrom TN’ who is a prominent microbioligist and heads up a leading university research lab…

    Uninformed commenters here would do well to look up their recent commenting history here and see what these real experts have to say…

    There is no such thing as ‘immunity’ with corona viruses, any more than there is with the common flu or the cold…but unlike those diseases, the COVID virus can be very very nasty, attacking the lining of blood vessels and causing clotting in lungs, the brain and other organs…

    Not everyone gets this sick, but those who do are in a world of hurt…that does not happen with the flu…

    The simple fact is that uncontrolled spread of this virus would crash our medical system and NOBODY would get treatment for ANYTHING…you will just die in the hallways…

    China did the absolute right thing in locking everyone down and wrestling this thing to the ground…an amazing victory for China over a very difficult outbreak of a very nasty virus…

    Whitney should shut the fuck up instead of agitating about stuff he cannot possibly comprehend…

    • 回复: @Digital Samizdat
    , @Parfois1
  93. Alfred 说:
    @Saggy

    A team of researchers from The University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, have shown that a significant proportion of people in the UK- over 25% – is likely to have been infected already by the COVID-19 virus.

    The study – published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice – is the first to use the published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the COVID-19 outbreak began.

    This has enabled them to calculate the R-value – the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19 – within each local authority area.

    The published case data from the 144 Local Authorities analysed by the team now gives an R value of well below 1.

    The value – which was over 3 at the start of the outbreak in the middle of March 2020 – fell as a consequence of social distancing combined with the natural consequences of cumulative community infection.

    ‘Over 25% of the UK likely to have had COVID-19 already’

    I think we are at the end of the tunnel. Believers can think whatever they like, reality is asserting itself despite the best efforts of Bill Gates and Co.

    • 回复: @Saggy
  94. Kouros 说:

    Oh my gosh, nobody knows how long lasting this herd immunity is. If it is like influenza (for which we get some vaccination – each year is a hit or miss), which likely it is, with the added bonus of being difficult to produce vaccines for Covid-19, then we’ll be chasing the golden pot at the end of the rainbow forever, and in the death statistics you will have instead of “Influenza & Pneumonia” column, “Influenza, Pneumonia & Covid-19”, which then will be sanitized into “Other respiratory infectious diseases”.

    There is a nice trashing in nakedcapitalism of all this hype about Sweden, have a go: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/05/foreign-affairs-runs-propaganda-from-swedish-employers-on-swedens-covid-19-fiasco-failing-to-disclose-sponsorship-and-misrepresenting-results.html

  95. Anon[230]• 免责声明 说:

    My thoughts were when this started (Im practically certain I had Covid in December…..had a big weird purple sore on one foot, fever, cough-a-thon, achy-all-over, super-sore-throat) was to isolate the elderly, but let those below 50 work.

    To be fair, I dont act helpless when Im sick: I attacked it right back with known natural antivirals (I thought it was the flu at the time, but the purple foot sore was a symptom I later learned was covid, and no, Ive never had any other strange sore in the middle of the top of my foot in my life).

    My regimine was Zinc, C, Ginger, Garlic, Elderberry-gummies*, and black pepper. I bought an immunity shot drink from the grocery store that had all of the above in it (plus echinecea, which may be the best thing of them all) also. I didnt know that sunlight and D would be so helpful, or I would have done that too. I kept throat lozenges in my sore throat constantly, one right after another at my job. I also took Dayquil at work.

    I whipped it in about 3-and-a-half days.

    *The elderberry gummies had both C and Zinc in them. Elderberry has been shown to shorten the duration of the flu. Look it up.

    My private initial thoughts on Covid (which I actually kept to myself and didn’t share here) are the same as they are now: its the Deep State, alone or in collusion with someone, and the effort was to damage the economy and blame it on Trump in an election year. None of the Russia Hoax stuff got him, the senile special prosecutor didn’t get him, so now its this Hail Mary pass. Notice how the Mockingbird media gave Trump nothing but bad advice back in January and early February? They had articles saying the flu was what we needed to really worry about and how racist ravel bans were. Look at the New York policy of sending the elderly to nursing homes, some of which have seen great numbers of infected old people die of covid. They are trying to up the numbers. It will be ugly till the election is over. The producers and directors of big media will seek to scare and demoralize just as the Mockingbird handlers want them too.

    I hope Trump is re-elected, and we investigate who started Covid (our own special prosecutor, perhaps Trey Gowdy), and convict who really did it. Leavenworth has enough spare cells Im sure.

    • 回复: @Alden
  96. Poco 说:
    @Longfisher

    How about we allow small struggling businesses to re-open, allow people to work, while continuing to limit huge gatherings of people, wear masks, stay out of each others face, limit air travel and immigration, and protect the elderly. Is that swimming in rivers upon rivers and floods of infection?

  97. 450.org 说:

    Some days, most days, and today is no different, I swear we’re being gaslighted.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-names-scientist-army-general-lead-coronavirus-vaccine-effort-n1207906

    Trump is using the DPA to force Clorox and Lysol to develop a vaccine that will be compulsorily administered by the American military and not covered by insurance. The cost will be \$10,000 per person and if you can’t pay you will be conscripted and used as fodder in the coming war on Iran.

    If that’s satire, it’s only just barely.

    President Donald Trump on Friday announced a team of two men to lead his administration’s effort to develop a coronavirus vaccine, dubbed “Operation Warp Speed.”

    The team consists of Moncef Slaoui, the former head of pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline’s vaccines division, and Gen. Gustave Perna, a four-star U.S. Army general, Trump said during a press conference in the White House Rose Garden.

    Slaoui will serve as the chief scientist for the White House initiative and Perna will serve as its chief operating officer, said Trump, whose suggestions that a coronavirus vaccine could come within months have been repeatedly refuted by prominent health experts and veteran vaccine developers.

    That’s some All-American team, is it not? Move over Smith & Jones. Enter Slaoui & Perna. I didn’t watch this, but I wish I had only to hear Trump try to pronounce those two All-American names. Hey, at least they weren’t Chinese, right?

    Fauci, even though he’s supposed to be self-quarantining, was present. What a lying hypocritical weasel this guy is. He and Trump make a perfect pair. A match made in heaven.

    查看有关的帖子 imgur.com

    Here’s another pic from a wider angle. What a bunch pf pathetic sad sacks they all are. This is what passes for leadership in America. The laughing stock of the world. Criminal retards with nukes. What could be worse?

    查看有关的帖子 imgur.com

    My wife and I on the way back from weeding her garden today at her place of employment, passed our local health department. It was packed with employees none of whom were wearing any protective equipment and they were in close proximity to one another. WTF???

  98. Poco 说:
    @joecbart

    They don’t allow any posted links to faceberg from Unz.

  99. @Ron Unz

    On https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, 236,711 cases are declared (238k on John Hopkins). This is ~0.35% of the population.

    ??

    How can there be less infected in the UK than the declared symptomatic cases.. (well, we can guess I’m sure!)

  100. @utu

    Average population density of the whole country doesn’t help much at all with this analysis. You can factor in NY City with the rest of NY State (counting the huge Adirondack Mountains) and you’ll get a pretty low number too. Sweden has over 5 X the land area of Michigan, the latter with the LOCKDOWN QUEEN, totalitarian Governess Gretchen Whitmer. They have almost exactly the same total population. Compare the two.

    Sweden has Stockholm, just chock full of highly-foreign immigrants who are not only part of the problem, but exacerbate it by causing a Tower of Babel situation in the hospitals. The metro area of Stockholm has 1/4 of the “Swedish” population. One could say something similar about the big city(s) for some of the countries in your graph, but do they have that huge foreigner population? Been to Prague (no, they don’t). How about NYC? Oh, yeah…

    The only problem in Sweden, and it’s not a bad one at that, is in Stockholm.

    • 回复: @utu
    , @karel
  101. Alfred 说:
    @450.org

    Let me guess. Putin is faking it. He’s part of the hoax. He and Bill Gates are great pals. They’re in this together. Good grief.

    The numbers coming out of Russia are excellent when compared to the USA and the UK. Clearly, their healthcare system is superior in this instance.

    I believe that Russia is well aware that the lockdown is useless and that this infection will continue until herd immunity is reached. However, Putin does not want to antagonize those who control the West. He wants to keep a low profile so that the USA will direct its venom against China for a change.

    Have you all noticed how the vitriol against Russia has dried up?

    At the same time, there is an ongoing attempt to blame China for Covid-19.

    A second consideration is that Russia has regular nationwide civil defense preparations against nuclear war. This virus has given the authorities a good pretext for training the population in case of a bioweapons attack. Don’t forget that the USA has numerous bioweapons labs in the countries surrounding Russia – Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan etc.

  102. 瑞典做了正确的事。

    It’s amazing and disturbing that so many people feel the need to lie about Sweden. I think the lies must be politically motivated.

    Sweden did better than many countries that locked down.

    And the Swedish approach can be done LONG TERM.

    There was no reason for western governments to quarantine healthy people. It’s absurd and it’s never been done before.

    They should have made an all out effort to protect the old folks in nursing homes, and that’s the one thing they didn’t do, which strikes me as criminally stupid.

    There was never any solid reason for wrecking the economy and forcing healthy people to isolate.

    As more information came out, rather than admit they were wrong, the idiots in government decided to double down on their authoritarian stupidity.

    So it’s become obvious that there is a political agenda at play that has nothing to do with public health.

    • 回复: @Da's Reich
  103. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @Digital Samizdat

    Well, well! I see that the lockdown-cult, the Branch Covidians (“We ain’t comin’ out!”), is well represented on this thread.

    Great meme! Aptly describes how lockdown advocates are cult members with no data behind their beliefs.

    I had a shirt printed up with the following text.

    I am not a dog.

    I will not be muzzled

    https://youtu.be/PRa6t_e7dgI

    Which is a link to a video with Fauci describing how wearing masks can be hazardous to your health.

    I wear this shirt when I walk my dog – of course maskless and unmuzzled.

    • 同意: Digital Samizdat
  104. Herald 说:
    @Karel

    @小飞象
    36 dumbo I suspect that you know fuck all about the specificity or accuracy of the availble tests. how many patients have you tested and what are your results?

    Your rudeness might be somewhat mitigated, if there was something to strongly support its use.

    No matter though, you do seem to be something of an old hand at the testing business, so you might want to tell us quite a bit more about the hot topics of specificity and accuracy of CV-19 tests. Anything relevant, that you have learned, especially through carrying out the tests yourself, would be of great interest.

    • 回复: @karel
  105. @FB

    China did the absolute right thing in locking everyone down and wrestling this thing to the ground…an amazing victory for China over a very difficult outbreak of a very nasty virus…

    China only locked down one of its 34 provinces, 不能 整个国家。

  106. Amon 说:

    在大流行中,免疫是无可替代的,因为免疫可以提供最好的保护以防止再次感染。

    白痴,最好的保护是关闭边界并阻止来自受感染国家的任何和所有旅行,因此大流行 不要进入你的国家。

  107. Saggy 说: • 您的网站
    @Alfred

    I think we are at the end of the tunnel.

    Check with reality …..

    27000 new cases yesterday in the US.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    • 回复: @anon
  108. gsjackson 说:
    @onebornfree

    Oh man, did I ever just jump off the Q train after seeing that. Astounding. And terrifying. Using the military to enforce vaccinations.

    Over in hopium land they’ve dug up an old clip in which Trump is somewhat ambivalent about vaccines, and they say that demonstrates he isn’t pushing them. No ambiguity at all in this clip. Crap!

    End of the year, he says. So I’ve got seven and a half months to become economically self-sustaining. The only way they’ll get me to take that vaccination, especially one developed that quickly, is to hunt me down in the wild and strap me to a gurney.

    • 回复: @Robert Dolan
  109. Hegar 说:

    Whitney, have you heard of the Mulhouse Cluster? That’s what happens when people talk about corona safety as if it’s a hoax. Africans in a church in north-eastern France decided to have their annual meeting with 2,500 people attending, because God Would Protect Them.

    Check a map of the spread of corona in France from the Mulhouse Cluster and outward.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-church-spec/special-report-five-days-of-worship-that-set-a-virus-time-bomb-in-france-idUSKBN21H0Q2

  110. utu 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Population density accounts for 25% of variance in the deaths per capita data for 24 European countries I looked at several days ago. If we use the effective population density that excludes the uninhabited areas the correlation r-square would be higher than 25%. The reason for UK, Italy and Spain having high number of cases per capita is because their effective population density is very high. Particularly for Spain which effective population density is one of the highest in Europe.

    The main point of the plot that I have posted is that Sweden per capita deaths are 7 times higher than in other small and similar countries despite of the fact that Sweden’s population density whether arithmetic or the effective population density is smaller than in other countries. Sweden is a big outlier. It has 7 times higher mortality than other countries. 85% of people who died in Sweden so far died unnecessarily because of careless and callous Swedish policy.

    • 同意: Alden
    • 谢谢: V. K. Ovelund
    • 回复: @geokat62
  111. Hegar 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Absolutely. I live in Sweden, and I think the strategy here, with support from across the political spectrum, is right for Sweden. Not for the far less healthy U.S., for example. “Underlying conditions” is what to remember – the main underlying condition is hypertension, i.e. high blood pressure. The vast majority of Americans suffer from high blood pressure and diabetes or pre-diabetic conditions.

    Had nothing been done in the U.S. the whole country would have been overwhelmed. Like northern Italy, Spain, the Netherlands.

    Different approaches are right for different countries. There is no need for reader to praise or malign Sweden’s approach.

    Sweden does have a lot of anti-corona measures, by the way. 60% fewer commuters in Stockholm – people work from home if they can.

    University classes are done from the home when possible. (I always said in college that we could have gotten the lectures in writing, it would have been much better for the students. But the professors want to get paid for those lectures.)

    The old are isolated. (Whitney in the article above does acknowledge this, and that there are other measures.)

    No meetings with 50 people or more allowed – and this means almost every smaller event is also cancelled, voluntarily.

    In many workplaces, they work only two days a week. There aren’t many customers anyway.

    Coffee shops are mostly empty, restaurants as well. The economy remains open, but on a significantly lower level.

    So, it’s semi-isolation. Not full isolation or no isolation. It is the best solution for Sweden. (And there’s no law that allows confining the population to their homes.) Not for the U.S., I believe. When people point to the map and say “Look, not much corona there” – they ignore the fact that quarantine is in place.

    Everyone should read up on the Mulhouse Cluster in France, to see what happens when an African “French” megachurch decided to hold its annual 2,500-attendant meeting. Corona spread from that and outward – the map of this is interesting. That could be in the U.S., it could be in any country. If we’d listen to the “corona is a hoax!” people.

    And what’s with the constant comparison of Sweden with Norway or Denmark? “Similar countries!” Yes, neighbors, well done. Why not compare with the Netherlands, with its massive corona outbreak? Imagine if there’d be no quarantine there. No one in the Netherlands denies that quarantine measures are needed. They don’t have a Trump to be pro or against, translating that into being pro or against quarantine. (No matter that Trump is also pro and against at the same time.)

    • 回复: @utu
    , @Alden
    , @Bat stew
  112. Agent76 说:

    May 15, 2020 New Bill (H.R.6666) Could Cement In Place the COVID-19 Medical Police State – Stand To Oppose Now

    An alarming new bill, with potentially devastating implications to the fast vanishing health freedoms of each and every citizen of the United States, has been introduced into the 116th Congress (2019-2020) of the U.S. House of Representatives named H.R.6666 – COVID-19 Testing, Reaching, And Contacting Everyone (TRACE) Act.

  113. @gsjackson

    Yes, reasons galore to refuse the vaccine.

    A rushed vaccine could wind up killing people. The swine flu vaccine (rushed to market) did more damage than the swine flu itself.

    I don’t trust Fauci or Gates. God knows what kind of chip might be in the vaccine, or some weirdness to alter our DNA to make us docile or unable to breed.

    The very IDEA that Trump mentions the military involvement with a forced vaccine should make you question what they’re up to.

  114. Redman 说:
    @RoatanBill

    Very true regarding government statistics.

    Why did the CDC report widely in December 2018 that 80,000 people had died from the prior year’s flu (2017-2018) only to revise it downward to 61,000 the following spring? It’s explained that their statistics on flu deaths are always estimates based on reported cases, which they follow up with to try to clean up the data. In that case they had to lower the total by 25% which is not exactly a rounding error.

    So it seems like the concept of following a disease’s progression in real time isn’t even something the government has ever done. So why exactly should we be trusting these numbers? Since everyone is watching them now are we just supposed to assume more accuracy with CV19?

  115. Alfred 说:

    It should by now be obvious to the most religious of believers that London should unlock. Herd immunity is there. The virus is rapidly disappearing. All of this would have come about earlier with no lockdown. 24 new cases in a city with 9.3 million people is almost nothing.

    London’s Covid-19 R number is well below critical at 0.4, with only 24 new cases a day. NOW why can’t we have our lives back ?

  116. utu 说:
    @Hegar

    “Different approaches are right for different countries. There is no need for reader to praise or malign Sweden’s approach.” – 85% of people who died in Sweden so far would be alive if Sweden implemented similar countermeasures as Norway, Denmark or Finland. If the US would withdrew aid to some small African country and 3,000 people died of hunger or lack of medicine you Swedes would be first to malign America for not caring and for being callous. And now you want to hide because the clause of diversity: every country is different; no need to praise or malign Sweden; just do not talk about it. You Swedes let over 3,000 people die unnecessarily. Their lives could have been saved.

    • 同意: Alden
    • 回复: @Anonymous
  117. 450.org 说:
    @Alfred

    什么?

    Clearly, their healthcare system is superior in this instance.

    Superior is not the right word. Dedicated, for sure, but in no way superior. They lack resources just as American healthcare workers do. In fact, America and Russia are similar in regard to their response to this virus and the numbers reflect it. America is obviously undercounting and Russia, for sure, is grossly undercounting, especially deaths.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/world/europe/coronavirus-russia-doctors-hospitals.html

    Russia is hailing its medical workers as heroes, their photographs plastered on billboards and their stories glamorized on state TV. But as the country develops into one of the global epicenters of the disease, those workers are suffering astonishing levels of infection and death in their ranks.
    And as the number of reported coronavirus cases in Russia grows, many fear the worst is yet to come.

    A website memorializing health care workers who have died during the pandemic lists more than 180 doctors, nurses, paramedics and others.

    Just as is the case in America, Russian healthcare workers are being supported in word only. They’re being used as propaganda, but it’s only words and optics. The adulation is superficial and any benefit from it accrues to those who create the propaganda not who the propaganda exploits. Same goes in America. No tangible support.

    Doctors say they are hampered not just by a lack of equipment and protective gear but also by a rigid, top-down governing system that discourages initiative and independent thinking. Medical workers who have spoken out have faced pressure from the authorities; three doctors who tangled with their superiors over working conditions fell from windows in recent weeks, though even the Alliance of Doctors, a medical-worker activist group highly critical of the government response, has described those as possible stress-related suicides, not homicides.

    “People in administrative positions generally don’t know how to make decisions — they know how to carry out orders,” said the doctor who said that 75 percent of their department was sick, who would speak only anonymously for fear of retribution. “And they keep getting contradictory orders.”

    • 回复: @Alfred
    , @FB
  118. geokat62 说:
    @utu

    85% of people who died in Sweden so far died unnecessarily because of careless and callous Swedish policy.

    You’d think the Swedes would be up in arms.

    The Swedes may be 7 times higher on the front end, but how much higher will its neighbours be on the back end… and at what economic price?

    Do you have an answer to that question?

    • 同意: Achmed E. Newman
    • 回复: @utu
  119. Alden 说:

    How can this author praise Sweden?

    Population Sweden 10 million total covid deaths so far, 3,646.

    Population Los Angeles county USA 10 million covid deaths so far, as of today, 1,711, less than half the total Swedish deaths.

    Whatever the US federal government, State of California LA county and the 88 cities within LA County public health authorities and medical practitioners did, they did much, much much, better than Sweden.

    How can Webb claim Sweden is leading the pack?
    Plenty of nations, provinces, states counties and cities of 10 million population to compare with Sweden.

    How about some facts and statistics rather than rambling blathering speculation?

  120. Alden 说:
    @Hegar

    Pls read comment 122 comparing Sweden population 10 million population with an American county with 10 million population and less than half the deaths of Sweden.

    And very few Americans have diabetes and high blood pressure compared to the total population. For instance, few people under 45 have high blood pressure. And a much much lower percent of Americans smoke and are alcoholics compared to high rates of smoking and alcohol consumption in Sweden and other N European countries.

    Compared to other nations, provinces , states, counties and cities with populations of 10 million all over the world , Sweden’s total deaths are about the worst.

    How can you brag? Last time I went to a Dr my BP was 103. If you can claim all Americans have diabetes and high BP. I can claim all Swedes and N Europeans smoke and are alcoholics.

  121. @Alfred

    Have you all noticed how the vitriol against Russia has dried up?

    Now that you mention it, no. Interesting.

  122. Alden 说:
    @anon

    Los Angeles County Ca USA 10 million population covid deaths as of today 1,711, less than half of Sweden.

    Sweden 10 million population covid deaths 3,646.

    Facts and figures tell the truth. Covid death facts prove population of Sweden cannot possibly be healthier than other nations provinces states counties and cities with 10 million population.

    If the people of Sweden were so much healthier, 3,646 wouldn’t have died from Covid

  123. Yngvar 说:
    @Alfred

    Norway did, basically, what Sweden did. There are no ‘lock-downs’ here, only a ban on tattoo-parlors and hair-dressers and chiropractors and so on. Everything else is voluntary.

    Going to miss “syttende mai”. Social distancing was never a part of 17th May celebrations. An exceptional year, one would hope.

    • 谢谢: Alfred
  124. Alfred 说:
    @450.org

    Making lots of assertions is not a convincing way of persuading anyone. The numbers speak for themselves. The number of deaths per patient in Russia is 10+ times less than in the USA or the UK. If you find numbers a bit of a challenge, that is your problem. 🙂

    Quoting the Jew York Times is a joke in bad taste. When is the last time those Zionists said anything nice about Russia?

    They are liars through and through.

    9/11 happened on their doorstep and they denied the reality of what really happened. Engineers and architects put a gigantic advert across from their offices calling them liars and they ignored it.

  125. Ron Unz 说:

    Since fatalities are both over-counted and under-counted due to misclassification, I think everyone can agree that the best measure to use is “excess deaths.” And yesterday’s NYT reported a detailed study of these across all the American states by a Harvard statistician:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/coronavirus-us-deaths.html

    His conclusion was that Covid-19 had already killed over 100K Americans, which had been my own very rough estimate based upon the detailed NYC data.

    Now the unknown is what percentage of Americans have been infected. In devastated NYC, it was over 20%, and in Indiana, with fatalities slightly below the national average, it’s apparently 2.8%:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/indianans-2-8-ever-infected-by-end-of-april-0-58-infection-fatality-rate/

    So my guess is that across the whole country it’s about 3-4%.

    I’ve always thought all the complex computer models were pretty worthless, which is why I’ve never paid any attention to them. Instead of those charts and graphs, why not just focus on the infection rate and infection fatality rate. If the former is now around 3-4% in America and the latter is 0.5-1%, then simple multiplication will tell you how many Americans will probably die for any given infection rate.

    Supposedly, “herd immunity” requires 60-70% infections. So someone who knows how to multiply can tell all of us how many Americans would probably die to achieve that result.

  126. Alden 说:
    @anon53

    Thank you for posting some true facts.

  127. Emily 说:
    @Longfisher

    长钓者

    ‘THINK! How many of us have caught a cold or flu almost every fall / winter? How many of us have to take a flu vaccine every year ‘.

    Probably get the flu because they have received the vaccine.
    I have refused a flu jab for at least 20 years.
    And have never had the flu…..
    And there are plenty more like me..

  128. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @Saggy

    Check with reality …..

    27000 new cases yesterday in the US.

    https://www.世界计.info/coronavirus/

    Do you have and official governments numbers? I don’t trust companies like dadax.com, who owns worldometers, who only have a one page web site and who hide behind lawyers so you cannot determine their owners or financial backers.

  129. Curmudgeon 说:
    @Longfisher

    For those who advocate the end of lock-downs and, in the process, disregard the opinions and guidance of health professionals,

    Ahhh! There’s the rub. There are dozens of world renown virologists, microbiologists, and epidemiologists that speak against the WHO lock down model and the waffling Fauci. Whichever track you take, you are disregarding the opinions and guidance of health professionals. The fact that there are not diverging, but opposite views is an indication that something is afoot.

  130. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @450.org

    Thanks for plastering that NYT tripe on my screen…

    If you are not intelligent enough, or do not have a bullshit radar of any sort, then go ahead and gorge yourself on NYT Russia bashing…but please spare us here on UNZ…

    Russian doctors complaining of ‘rigid, top-down governing system’…?

    Excuse me, but there is such a thing as an established TREATMENT PROTOCOL that every doctor must follow in their hospital…

    You don’t get to just improvise and freewheel any way you like in treating Covid…no modern hospital on earth is going to allow that…that is just a fundamental fact of life in medicine…

    The fact that the NYT chooses to distort and mislead credulous readers who may be unaware of such basic medical facts is very telling in itself…

    • 同意: Alfred
  131. Truth 说:

    That’s a handsome, young Swedish man in the picture.

    • 回复: @Dumbo
  132. @Alfred

    What makes Sweden immune in the face of mighty powers, be they nations or powerful individuals? Just curious!

    • 回复: @Alfred
  133. glib 说:
    @450.org

    This is a reasonable comment. My guess:

    1) never interrupt an enemy making a mistake. This flu masquerading as pandemic will prove far more damaging to the West. Why not pretend? One month will not make a difference two years from now.

    2) all levels test of bio-warfare preparedness. Food delivery systems, vaccine delivery systems, interplay between local and central authorities, you name it. We are two decades into the era of bio-warfare and this is a necessity.

    I am waiting for June 24 to see if celebrations about the War will take place or not. If not, I think there might be a problem with Russia indeed.

    • 同意: Alfred
  134. TG 说:

    I think the jury is still out about whether the Swedes made a good or a bad decision. Maybe their per capita death toll is relatively high just now – and maybe it will hold steady at that level while other countries soar past it, and meanwhile their economy is not bad and life goes on. Maybe. Ask me in six months.

    But here’s the bottom line: Covid 19 is extremely infectious, and readily spread through a large number of asymptomatic carriers. A vaccine is likely years off: probably most near everyone is going to get it, sooner or later. Sure, spreading it out might dull the pain a bit – and avoid intensive care units having to triage high risk people and let them die, that’s never fun – but it’s gonna happen. Even China may have an awfully hard time preventing the virus from re-entering the country and starting this all over again…

    I think what we are doing in the United States may be the worst of all possible worlds. We are shutting down long enough to cripple the economy (and give the super-rich the chance to do some really spectacular looting: the Fed buying junk bonds for cash at full face value, really?), but now we are starting up again with the virus showing no signs of dying out. So we’ve (possibly) dealt the economy a mortal blow AND we are going to have a massive spike in infections anyhow.

    I can see why most countries blinked at the prospect of ‘taking it on the chin,’ but maybe that was the best strategy after all. But of course, we can only really know that in hindsight…

    • 同意: Robert Dolan
    • 回复: @karel
  135. Agent76 说:

    May 15, 2020 New Bill (H.R.6666) Could Cement In Place the COVID-19 Medical Police State – Stand To Oppose Now

    An alarming new bill, with potentially devastating implications to the fast vanishing health freedoms of each and every citizen of the United States, has been introduced into the 116th Congress (2019-2020) of the U.S. House of Representatives named H.R.6666 – COVID-19 Testing, Reaching, And Contacting Everyone (TRACE) Act.

    • 同意: Digital Samizdat
  136. @anon

    Sweden also leads the pack in deaths ….

    Where did you derive that info? Sweden actually lags a number of Lockdown Landar in deaths per million.

    … to get to herd immunity in the U.S. will require millions of deaths and tens of millions of hospitalizations, along with the complete destruction for our hospital system.

    Where did you find that data? Sounds like the Imperial model. Anyway, the only place where the empirical data might begin to fit that model output is NYC, but NY’s governor ordered nursing homes to take recovering COVID-19 cases, so a lot of the death there was the result of one bad public policy, which created a feedback loop of even worse public policies.

    Our public policy screws the many to ostensibly benefit the few; your choice as to whether the few are the weak or the oligarchs who are using them as human shields while they advance their own interests.

  137. Miro23 说:
    @Giraffehead

    Now New Zealand is talking about a ridiculous “stimulus” package which is full socialist central planning of the entire economy (although to be fair, their model of basically subcontracting the running of the economy out to the govt central bank operated banking cartel to explode asset prices is a billion miles away from being a free-market capitalist economy anyway but….), by “borrowing” from the vicious central bank controlled fractional reserve banking system, apparently an amount equivalent to \$40,000 per household. It’s going to double their national debt. Economically literate people understand why this is doomed to fail.

    New Zealand is turning into a real NWO place – which is a shame because it used to be rustic Old England in the Southern Hemisphere.

    While the majority of Americans have no choice but to put up with the shortfalls of their government amid the coronavirus crisis, the US’s super-rich are seeking refuge in New Zealand.
    New Zealand has become the go-to place for billionaires escaping a hypothetical apocalyptic scenario. Scattered across the country are a number of underground bunkers designed to keep the ultra-wealthy safe and sound in an emergency.

    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/486714-%D1%81ovid19-rich-americans-bunkers-new-zealand/

    • 回复: @Alfred
  138. utu 说:
    @geokat62

    “The Swedes may be 7 times higher on the front end, but how much higher will its neighbours be on the back end… and at what economic price?” – If we assume that Sweden and its neighbors will reach the same prevalence down the road eventually and providing the same IFR there will be no difference in death rate except that in Sweden the average life span of those who die till “the back end” will be shorter. Old Norwegians or Fins can enjoy a year or two or more longer life than the old Swedes who are now being sacrificed on the altar of hubristic ideology and national pride and incompetence.

    But it will be even better than that because as time goes we learn how to treat covid patients better and may have vaccine so the old Norwegians and Fins will be treated down the road while the old Swedes won’t be treated because they will be already dead.

    • 回复: @geokat62
  139. glib 说:
    @Ron Unz

    CDC total mortality data. In 2019, there were 54,000 deaths a week. Week 17 ended April 28.

    周11 50,785
    周12 48,488
    周13 52,585
    周14 60,195
    周15 55,773
    周16 62,998
    周17 57,680

    Week 17 is usually at average mortality for non-flu causes, both in US and European data. Points:

    a) do I see excess there? Yes, but not 100K. Perhaps 20K or less, specifically, some 4-5K in Week 14, and 9K in Week 16, and 3-4K in Week 17. Note also apparent negative fluctuations in weeks 11-13.

    b) As in Europe, the excess mortality curve significantly lags worldometer covid curve, here probably starting Week 14 (lockdowns mostly started Week 11). IMHO, when the excess mortality curve did not budge, the order went out to send covid patients into nursing homes.

    Corrective factors: currently small, both positive and negative. Small business owners have not committed suicide in numbers yet, and traffic deaths are usually only 100/week.

    The only potentially large positive factor (increasing deaths) are

    1) the extension of the seasonal vitamin D deficiency in the population at large. Papers are coming out which are eye-popping.
    2) the collapse of nursing home care, also related to the forced injection of covid patients, in nursing homes around the world.

    If anyone is interested I can post a compendium of both of these last points.

    • 谢谢: Mark G.
  140. Our shutdown is not sustainable; Sweden’s approach is sustainable long term and they did not suicide their economy.

    I agree that the virus is here and it’s going to spread….either quickly or slowly…..but it’s going to spread.

    Because the government failed to close the borders to stop the virus, and because the government failed to protect the elderly who are most at risk, I have come to the conclusion that they allowed the virus to invade the west.

    Striker and Greg Johnson keep asking, “Well, why would the jews want the virus?”

    Plenty of reasons. The stock market was in massive bubble and it was time for it to pop, and time for the jews to raid the treasury again on an even bigger scale than 08. But this time everybody is stuck at home and cannot protest.

    The virus is a great way to test police state controls and see just how much bullshit the dumb goyim are willing to put up with.

    And wrecking the economy robs Trump of his only claim to fame since he fucked up all of his campaign promises.

    Goldman Sachs and the rest of Wall St. will not only make trillions but they’re getting trillions of bailout money, while out of work Americans get \$1200 and a totally ruined future.

    The small hats always land on their feet.

    总是。

  141. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Since fatalities are both over-counted and under-counted due to misclassification, I think everyone can agree that the best measure to use is “excess deaths.” And yesterday’s NYT reported a detailed study of these across all the American states by a Harvard statistician:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/coronavirus-us-deaths.html

    Article is behind a paywall so I had to use text browser elinks to read it. I can’t see any graphics or java script with this method but I saw no links to any of the raw data used for this analysis。 此外, definitions are unclear. What do they mean by comparing deaths from year to year – total deaths or some subset like influenza and pneumonia? Since links to the underlying raw data is not provided, I must unfortunately ask if the authors of this NY Times article have any qualifications to make these claims. Nicholas Kristof is an opinion columnist so no. Rafael Irizarry is Professor of Applied Statistics who focuses on Genomics so no again. I assume this is why this article appeared in the Opinion rather than the Science section of the NY Times.

    His conclusion was that Covid-19 had already killed over 100K Americans, which had been my own very rough estimate based upon the detailed NYC data.

    Have you posted your analysis with links to the source data for your rough estimate? Are you sure you not experiencing confirmation bias?

    Meanwhile, the Covid-19 cases in open economy state Georgia continue to 下降 – once again proving many experts wrong.

  142. Miro23 说:

    Humans have been struggling with viruses since pre-history and we’re still here – so there is obviously some natural immunity involved.

    I accept that viruses are a more difficult case that bacteria (antibiotics) but still, the Swedes still have a mostly functioning society despite the Corona virus attack. Their traditional response seems to be the way to go until a genuine specific anti-coronavirus comes along (if ever).

  143. utu 说:
    @Ron Unz

    About the models and when people have faith in them. You were right on the other tread that models are like theater props. A new talking point for the lockdowns objectors is that we must lift the countermeasures now because if we don’t the second wave will be worse. They get it from models. This is within the larger meme of the herd immunity and its inevitability. The lockdowns objectors prefer not to look at signs of the second wave in S. Korea, Taiwan or New Zealand because they know from the models it is inevitable and nothing can be done about it so we must open up soon. There is something about the advocacy for having people dead now rather than later. Impatience. Death anxiety when people commit suicide before inevitable death? There is some element of antinomian cult like Sabbateans where doing bad and forbidden things was to accelerate the arrival of Messiah.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-exactly-is-herd-immunity-supposed-to-work/#comment-3897982
    “This model incorporates seasonality. Notice that the most severe lockdown has the WORST results because it enables a more severe second wave in the fall. This is why I am being so vocal about starting to open up SOON.”

  144. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @anon

    There’s nothing new or substantive in this article. As usual, the guy completely sidesteps inconvenient counter examples like Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand.

    Just another in a series of deflections (swedes are natural social distancers etc.). Now we have this deflection – comparing Sweden to other countries.

    The main point is that the Swedish data shows that the Neil Ferguson models used to lock up the UK and the USA were spectacular wrong. Most countries, especially the US and the UK would have been satisfied with the Swedish results if it meant not locking down their country. Knowing human nature, I expect more deflections from the doomsayers in the future instead of actually admitting they were wrong.

    • 同意: Crazy Horse
    • 回复: @utu
  145. utu 说:
    @utu

    抱歉,应该是: “Also about Swedish incompetence”

  146. idrankwhat 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Excess deaths do not distinguish between deaths directly attributable to covid and deaths attributable to our response to the virus.

    请参见: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

    This epidemiologist is far more credible than the alarmists:

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

    • 回复: @geokat62
    , @Alfred
  147. idrankwhat 说:
    @Ron Unz

    There have been recent studies indicating that herd immunity may be reached much sooner than previously thought:

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

  148. @utu

    No way they are “undercounting.”

    There are endless clips on YT with doctors revealing that they’ve been instructed to label any death
    “Covid” if the deceased tested positive, even if the actual cause of death was something else.

    More likely they are over counting by at least 25% or more.

    The govt. gave hospitals financial incentives to “find” Covid deaths, which leads one to speculate that they wanted higher death rates and panic and hysteria and people hiding under their beds.

    People hiding under their beds are not going to complain that the big jews raped the treasury yet again.

    And the big jews can rest easy knowing if there is any hint of another “holocaust,” all they have to do is crank up the media and scream, “KILLER VIRUS EVERYBODY IS GONNA DIE!”

    There has never been a more effective means of crowd control.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  149. Skeptikal 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Look., Uncommon,

    We have been told that this is a war.
    In all wars, some people have to die for the defense and protection of the “homeland” as it is now known.
    So, the only question is: Who is going to die?

    Millions died for the defense of Russia. It was unavoidable

    In any war, deaths are unavoidable.

    So, there will be some deaths.

    Oh, you say, it’s not THAT kind of war!! “War” is just a metaphor.

    Too bad the metaphor escaped from the metaphor lab.

    现在为时已晚。

    Let’s not make it so that those who have lost their lives have died in vain.

    They died for the rest of us, so that we and the country could get on with our lives. So for heaven’s sake, let’s do so.

  150. anon[266]• 免责声明 说:

    In the race for herd immunity, Sweden has some competition:

    Coronavirus: Morgues and storage rooms are full of bodies. The true death toll in Mexico City is staggering

    https://news.sky.com/story/mexico-city-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-sky-news-analysis-finds-11987235

    Disturbing footage shows smoke billowing ‘non stop’ from a Mexico City crematorium …

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8322915/Disturbing-footage-shows-smoke-billowing-crematorium-Mexico-City-morgues-up.html

    Mexico’s REAL coronavirus death toll ‘staggering’ as morgues overflow and insiders claim 5x more dead than admitted

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11616078/mexicos-real-coronavirus-death-toll-staggering-morgues-overflow/

    But at least there is one guy in Mexico with some common sense, unlike all those fearmongers in America:

    Covid-19 ‘not serious,’ says lawmaker; cure is drinking cinnamon tea

    A lawmaker with the Social Encounter Party (PES) in Sonora expressed doubts Wednesday about the gravity of the coronavirus and said he has it on good authority that it can be cured by drinking cinnamon tea.

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-not-serious-says-lawmaker/

    Mexico deserves a second place silver at the very least.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  151. karel 说:
    @Herald

    109 Harald,

    I make no claims about anything concerning the accuracy of any particular test, hence I do not owe you any further explanation.

    • 回复: @Herald
  152. Skeptikal 说:
    @SteveK9

    “They will have to give me my vaccine at gunpoint. And, certainly any young person that gets a vaccine developed by our medical overlord, Bill Gates, is taking a huge risk, and is basically out of their mind.”

    阿门。
    But it ‘s the moms who will let hospitals put their infants on a vaccine program that will include ever-more questionable vaccine cocktails.

    I agree with Trump’s notion to investigate the WHO.

    The problem is that Trump’s reasons probably are not my reasons.

    As for Gates, he looks like Kermit the Frog.
    I don’t think we should put Kermit the Frog in charge of the world’s health.
    Especially when Kermit calls his vaccines the final solution (oops!!).

  153. karel 说:
    @utu

    90 utu A great graphics, my admiration for bringing it up. Unfortunately, it will be probably ignored by the Whitney crowd and and by the ‘herd immunity” revelers. The Sweden fan club, embedded in this blog, remind me of football fans believing that their club is always the best no matter whether they win or loose a match.

  154. Alden 说:
    @Anon

    Great post, I believe you’re right.

  155. Skeptikal 说:
    @Weston Waroda

    ” If it is so highly contagious, what is stopping it from running through the population? Are our lockdowns and social distancing measures really all that effective? I doubt it. Is it possible that a relatively large percentage of the population already has some type of resistance to the virus, for some as yet undiscovered reason? Do populations already have some level of built in herd immunity? If not, what else could account for these observations?”
    + + + +

    My understanding of how the immune system works in this context—based on explanations I saw on videos and what I have read—is that the creation of antibodies is a second-rank response to an attack. First off the healthy immune system just destroys the attacker. Only if the first line of defense fails does it send in new defenders, I think these are T-cells, that interact with the attacker in a process that results in the creation of antibodies, which then leave a trail. If the first defense is successful, scientists have not been able to find a trail of evidence of such. Only antibodies leave a trail. If this is correct, there would seem to be no practicable way to establish a realistic IFR.

    This is described as follows at the NIH website:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK279364/

    “As long as your immune system is running smoothly, you don’t notice that it’s there. ”
    。 。 。

    Innate and adaptive immune system

    There are two subsystems within the immune system, known as the innate (non-specific) immune system and the adaptive (specific) immune system. Both of these subsystems are closely linked and work together whenever a germ or harmful substance triggers an immune response.

    The innate immune system provides a general defense against harmful germs and substances, so it’s also called the non-specific immune system. It mostly fights using immune cells such as natural killer cells and phagocytes (“eating cells”). The main job of the innate immune system is to fight harmful substances and germs that enter the body, for instance through the skin or digestive system.

    The adaptive (specific) immune system makes antibodies and uses them to specifically fight certain germs that the body has previously come into contact with. This is also known as an “acquired” (learned) or specific immune response.

    Because the adaptive immune system is constantly learning and adapting, the body can also fight bacteria or viruses that change over time.”

    Regarding reinfection, a Russian infectious disease expert (see video at The Saker blog, with subtitles) explains that the CV can get into the GI tract and stay there for quite a while before it is completely excreted. So live viruses could be in feces after the owner of the GI has ceased being ill—or perhaps was asymptomatic. This can look like a reinfection but is just the tapering off of the first infection, says this fellow. He states that he knows of no cases of reinfection.

    Don’t take it from me or take it out on me if you disagree or this info causes you to have a flare-up of some kind.
    Check out the sources yourself.

    • 谢谢: Weston Waroda
  156. Saggy 说: • 您的网站

    Yes, let’s reopen …. in the meantime, from a New England Journal of Medicine article titled … Failing the Test — The Tragic Data Gap Undermining the U.S. Pandemic Response … which fills in a lot of the details on how the US is botching this thing … for example

    The best database on testing for Covid-19 in the United States, created through valiant efforts by news media organizations to fill the gap left by the CDC, contains testing data limited to aggregated counts of the tests done each day, the states where tests were performed, and the number of positive results.3 The validity and reliability of the data are not fully known. Inspection of the data suggests a patchwork of inconsistent reporting from state and commercial labs. The database lacks basic information about tests such as the characteristics of the people tested, where they were tested, how they were selected for testing, and what factors led to the decision to test them. Yet these data are the best we have.
    That the United States is failing such a simple test of its capacity to protect public health is shocking. Collecting and reporting public health data are not rocket science. Other countries, notably Canada and Belgium, are already reporting nationwide data on testing at the individual level, including individual demographic data (using ranges for each person to protect privacy) and other key attributes for each test.”

    Unfortunately I think it is behind a paywall, but you may be able to google it up.

  157. geokat62 说:
    @idrankwhat

    This epidemiologist is far more credible than the alarmists:

    如此真实!

    With this quote, Knut Wittkowski pin points the fundamental flaw:

    Knowing that the epidemic would be over in three weeks, and the number of people dying would be minor, just like a normal flu, the governments started shutting down in mid-March. Why? Because somebody pulled it out of his head that one per cent of all infected would die. One could argue that maybe one per cent of all cases would die. But one per cent of all people infected does not make any sense. And we had that evidence by mid-March.

    There are some who are still wedded to an IFR of 1%, for some reason.

  158. karel 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    103 Achmed Concerning the foreign population in Prague you are off the mark. Your statement ”Been to Prague (no, they don’t).” reads more like a question. I live in Prague and what you say is an obvious lie. Prague is full of Ukrainians, Russians, Slovaks and Poles and these, who in most cases would be called in Germany ”Gastarbeiters”, are rather invisible to your trained eye. Furthermore, I doubt it whether you can tell who is who and from where just by listing to what they may say in your presence. The Somalis in Sweden are probably more visible in Stockholm and I have to admit that there are not many in Prague.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  159. Parfois1 说:
    @FB

    There is no such thing as ‘immunity’ with corona viruses, any more than there is with the common flu or the cold…but unlike those diseases, the COVID virus can be very very nasty, attacking the lining of blood vessels and causing clotting in lungs, the brain and other organs…

    I had promised myself not to comment further on this tug-of-war debate about the “Sweden’s success”, driven as it is by supreme irrationality, belief or ignorance.

    I am no expert in genetics, microbiology or epidemiology and only use my critical thinking faculties to form a work-in-progress opinion about the merits, or otherwise, of this propagated “success”. As a starting point let’s look at today’s reported standings in Worldometer. As it happens, Sweden and Portugal (who have almost identical populations, 10.2 million) are neck-to-neck on the chart of CoV-19 cases: Sweden 361 deaths per million, Portugal 112/million. Today’s deaths: Sw 117, Pt 6.

    What’s going on? Is higher mortality a success?

    Because the mortality rate is an obvious failure, the twisted thinking shifts to the advantages of acquiring a putative “herd immunity”. But is there such a thing? If so, as BF and others pointed out, the common flu has been with humans perhaps for ever and we have not developed that mythical herd immunity and people are dying today from it or its complications. I don’t get the flu even while the flu-afflicted herd around me are coughing and sneezing into my face, not because of being protected by the bubble of “herdy immunity” but because my body, alone, happens to be impervious to the flu virus and, like me, many other people are free from that scourge.

    “Herd immunity” is a very hazy concept, not a scientifically proven fact, probably originated from the statistics mumbo-jumbo: if a given (say 40%) percentage of the population develops immunity to a bug, then there is “herd immunity”, meaning that 60% is expendable and might suffer. But that’s OK if the bug is the common flu with a known low lethality and only the old and frail die from it, and they will die anyway. But we are not talking about a common flu; this bug is the new kid on the block and the medical scientists are still learning about it, and is very deadly. So, let’s not play with probabilistic hypothesis.

    One thing medical science has discovered about this bug, apart from its lethality, is that it mutates very quickly, even within a single host and that is expected of a clever virus that finds its way into an alien environment. The human body has two defence layers to protect itself against invasions and will react to the bug’s presence by delivering an antibody and kill the bug. That will be the end of the story for the bug in most cases, but a clever bug like this one (probably endowed with man-made evil additions) knows how to overcome man’s antibodies by its ability to mutate and develop its own defence against the human antibody. This means that humanity is facing a battle of wits with this bug as to who will perform the necessary mutations to overcome the adversary by reproducing itself in huge numbers and producing more powerful mutations. And who is the likely winner? The very agile and mutable virus or the ponderous and almost immutable human?

    “Herd immunity” my foot! A lobertarian fixation at par with eugenics.

    • 回复: @FB
    , @Robert Dolan
  160. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @Parfois1

    Parf, over on Ron Unz’s ‘American Pravda’ article of a couple of weeks back [the one with over 1,500 comments]…we were lucky to get ‘Scalpel’ an ER doctor who has been working at a corona hospital, and other ACTUAL experts…

    First thing to realize is that this thing can be very very nasty, even to very young and healthy people…

    Do you know how many doctors and nurses have died of Covid…?

    Neither do I because nobody is keeping track of that data…but it could be HUNDREDS…now doctors and nurses are not old people with lots of health issues…they are almost universally relatively young and healthy…not only that but being in the profession, they would instantly have medical attention at hand, without delay or second thoughts…

    So people need to stop promoting this bullshit about how it’s just old folks with pacemakers and taking liver pills that are getting sick from this…that’s not true…what you say about your own resistance to the common flu is that it comes down to the individual and your particular kind of immunity…

    That’s exactly what Doc says about the corona virus…it varies from individual to individual…some people will have that inflammation of the veins and arteries, along with those thromboembolisms [blood clots] that can easily kill you or leave you a vegetable…some people won’t…you are rolling the dice…

    As for so-called immunity…Doc spoke quite a bit about this too…he says the immunity to this virus is very TRANSIENT…ie someone who has had it and recovered may have a bit of immunity at first, but it will wear off and he can get sick again…

    This also makes it very hard to find a vaccine for this thing…

    Again, this is like the flu shot that people get…it covers SOME of the flu varieties that may be floating around…but you may still get sick…

    Bottom line is there may be no such thing as this ‘herd immunity’ that lay people imagine…it doesn’t really work like that, and lay people don’t actually have a correct understanding of what this concept of ‘herd immunity’ means in a medical sense…

    The problem with the flu hoaxers and all of these people that are saying the lockdowns are unnecessary is that they are simply very very wrong on a lot of the basic assumptions they are making at the medical level…they simply have an inadequate understanding of how this stuff works…

    Unfortunately people have become so suspicious of authorities misleading them [because they do] that in the case that the actual wolf does appear at the village gate, then they will not believe it..

    • 同意: Jazman
    • 回复: @Alfred
    , @RT
  161. @Parfois1

    You are being disingenuous as regards to Sweden, or you simply don’t understand the advantage to what they did.

    The virus is going to spread in a given population once it has been allowed to take hold.

    Yes, Sweden might have a slightly higher death rate NOW (but not so much as compared to some countries that locked down) but in the long run Sweden is likely to come out on top because as the locked down countries open they will catch up to or surpass Sweden’s death rate and have ruined economies for their efforts as well.

    It’s bewildering that people are not able to apply common sense to this issue.

    There was never a claim that lockdowns would lower the death rate. The goal was to slow the spread so hospitals would not get overwhelmed. But then the goalposts moved because commie tyrants wanted to wreck the economy for political reasons.

    Trump fucked up by allowing the virus to get here and take hold, although I suspect that maybe they wanted it to come here so they could test/implement police state controls and raid the treasury.

    Herd immunity is real even if we don’t know how long it lasts. Nature has built in safeguards that people do not understand.

    Sweden is right.

    The pro-lockdown goofballs NEVER take into account the MASSIVE misery and death the wrecked economy will bring over time.

    Life is full of risks. I’d rather have my job and be given the choice to go to work and take my chances as a free citizen, rather than have some commie dipshits tell me to go and hide under my bed.

    • 同意: Achmed E. Newman, acementhead
    • 回复: @Biff
  162. utu 说:
    @anon

    “The main point is that the Swedish data shows that the Neil Ferguson models used to lock up the UK and the USA were spectacular wrong.” – Not at all. Sweden has 7 times higher mortality per capita than similar countries like Norway and Finland which took countermeasures. If you apply the factor of 7 to the UK data you get 237,900 deaths in the UK if no countermeasures were taken if the UK behaved like Sweden.

  163. Alfred 说:
    @Really No Shit

    What makes Sweden immune in the face of mighty powers, be they nations or powerful individuals? Just curious!

    A good question. I think the fact that Sweden has not been occupied by foreigners is important. The Swedes invaded Russia repeatedly but the Russians merely kicked them out. Their last big fight was in Poltava and that is in today’s so-called Ukraine. The original “Rus” were Scandinavians. Moscow, like Dublin and Paris, was founded by the Vikings.

    I have been many times to Sweden. I was often a guest of young guys who had just left university. I reciprocated when they came to Paris. It was a long time ago. They were elitist. Sweden has a royal family and there is a class system. Of course, it is much milder than in Japan. This means that there are people there who think long-term. The media don’t totally control the narrative. They are also fortunate in not being positioned between great powers – like Poland, the Baltic States and many other countries in Europe. The Americans leave them alone. The Germans only wanted their resources and fake neutrality. The Russians have enough land and don’t need any more.

    There is a constant effort by NATO to try to mobilize Swedish opinion against Russia. False flags galore. The Russian submarine nonsense keeps on popping up. They will never forget that a real Russian submarine grounded in Swedish waters. I suspect the British are behind a lot of that by leaving false trails. They enjoy doing these public schoolboy pranks. 🙂

    Swedish Hunt for ‘Russian’ Sub Recalls the Cold War

  164. geokat62 说:
    @utu

    But it will be even better than that because as time goes…

    Interesting. One follow-up question… in your balance sheet, did you remember to include all of the additional deaths that result from the lockdown?

    COVID-19 Reality: UK Lockdown Could Cause 150,000 ‘Avoidable’ Deaths

    https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/04/17/uk-lockdown-could-cause-150000-avoidable-deaths/

    • 回复: @utu
  165. Alfred 说:
    @Miro23

    New Zealand is turning into a real NWO place – which is a shame because it used to be rustic Old England in the Southern Hemisphere.

    What do you expect when their prime minister is an acolyte of Tony Blair?

    She was working in Downing Street when he was busy lying about his plan to destroy the Middle East. Her reward was to be made President of the International Union of Socialist Youth – a Jewish-controlled organization that pretends Palestinians don’t exist.

    Her ascent in New Zealand’s politics was meteoric. But that is what happens when the controlled-media is fueling the frenzy. She is excellent at inspiring fear in the population of New Zealand – a strange attribute for an alleged “leader”. A real leader, like Putin, is someone who inspires trust and confidence.

    She is a stooge of those remodeling the world at present. An obvious psychopath.

    • 回复: @KA
    , @Paul C.
  166. Alfred 说:
    @idrankwhat

    I think your link needs a fuller treatment. This blog is thoroughly contaminated by trolls such utu who are trying to deflect and to avoid the points raised in the article. When deflection fails, ad hominems take over. 🙂

    这里从 British Medical Journal article:

    Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data,1 which cover deaths in hospitals, care homes, private homes, hospices, and elsewhere, show that 6035 people died as a result of suspected or confirmed covid-19 infection in England and Wales in the week ending 1 May 2020 (where deaths were registered up to 9 May), a decline of 2202 from the previous week.

    Although the number of deaths in care homes has fallen for the second week in a row, more covid related deaths are being reported in care homes than in hospitals and are tailing off more slowly.

    However, David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that covid-19 did not explain the high number of deaths taking place in the community.

    At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on 12 May he explained that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had had to deal with a “staggering burden” of 30 000 more deaths than would normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were anticipating high demand for beds.

    Of those 30 000, only 10 000 have had covid-19 specified on the death certificate. While Spiegelhalter acknowledged that some of these “excess deaths” might be the result of underdiagnosis, “the huge number of unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is something I hope will be given really severe attention.”

    He added that many of these deaths would be among people “who may well have lived longer if they had managed to get to hospital.”

    I think it is reasonable to say that this demolishes the argument of Mr Unz that the total excess fatalities is a good substitute for recorded Covid-19 fatalities. The delusion that lockdowns don’t come with a cost in deaths and illnesses must be laid to rest.

    Over the coming years – not months – we will see life expectancy in the USA and the UK decline. This was entirely avoidable had the Standard/Swedish model been adopted. It was standard policy everywhere until 2020 and the massive misinformation campaign by the usual suspects.

  167. “科学很明确,免疫是真实的,瑞典正在实现群体免疫 一个月内设立的区域办事处外,我们在美国也开设了办事处,以便我们为当地客户提供更多的支持。“

    我们应该在 3、6、9 和 12 个月后重新审视 Mike Whitney 的这一预测。

    我可能是错的(惠特尼和他的同类从未做出让步),但我强烈怀疑它会像特朗普关于病毒会在春天消失的荒谬预测一样严重老化——以及埃隆马斯克在 2020 月初的荒谬声称到 XNUMX 年 XNUMX 月底,美国的新感染率将降至零。

    当任何人对这个复杂的话题发表绝对肯定的意见时,这几乎总是表明自我过度膨胀,而不是知识过剩,更不用说智慧过剩了。

  168. Anonymous[457]• 免责声明 说:
    @utu

    You Swedes let over 3,000 people die unnecessarily. Their lives could have been saved.

    No they couldn’t. Lockdown doesn’t save anyone. Lockdown just kicks the can down the road and destroys everyone’s quality of life in the process.

    Lockdown reduces the quality of life for everyone to give a bit of extra low quality time to old folks who will die soon anyway.

    To paraphrase Churchill, Lockdowns are the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. Their inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.

    • 回复: @utu
  169. Alfred 说:
    @FB

    Just keep up the fear porn.

    Here is the data from Germany. The infection(s) are disappearing as is normal and yet the country is still in lockdown. Why?

    The only possible explanation is that this virus is being used in the West as a pretext to destroy our futures. Your employer will go bust and an insider will buy it for pennies in the dollar.

    I notice that Africa and India seem to have disappeared off the map. But plenty of scary newspaper articles from Mexico. No need for data. Just pictures of corpses and trucks is quite enough. Everyone knows that Mexico has a crap healthcare system – which is why so many Americans go there for their operations and medicines. 🙂

    Influenza Weekly Report for Germany (May 2- May 8)

    Deaths from chest infections:

    Visits to doctor for chest infections (by age)

  170. Anonymous[457]• 免责声明 说:
    @Alfred

    However, Putin does not want to antagonize those who control the West. He wants to keep a low profile so that the USA will direct its venom against China for a change.

    Putin’s been in power a long time. He did exactly the same after 9/11. I’m sure he was quickly aware of the real situation, but played along and supported America’s war on terrorism and the invasion of Afghanistan.

    • 回复: @Alfred
  171. Anonymous[577]• 免责声明 说:
    @anon

    I hope the non-UK readers know that The Sun is Rupert Murdoch’s mouthpiece for the great unwashed, most famous for the topless model on page 3.

    The daily mail is another idiot rag that prioritises sensationalism over substance and has no problem publishing hearsay and fabrications as long as they’re sufficiently alluring.

    Both of these sources are merely relaying the Sky News (also Rupert Murdoch’s mouthpiece) video, which doesn’t really seem very interesting to me. We’ve got some funeral workers making a half way attempt at dressing up (white suits but no gloves or face protection), a small pile of coffins, a bunch of body bags, a small queue of cars and some black smoke. Eveyone seems relatively chilled about it, so it’s probably more to do with third world inefficiency than a novel coronavirus.

    Sorry, but i need to see something more substantial than 3 links to the same piece of trash journalism.

  172. Brewer 说:

    Certain facts are now clear.
    This virus has a fatality rate not too dissimilar to seasonal ‘flu.
    It affects different populations in different ways.
    There are vast anomalies in the death counts from country to country.
    There are vested interests involved.
    The response is based on bullshit.
    I have read most of the comments here but I find something lacking and that is some alternative thinking that might explain these conundrums.
    Here are a couple of videos that offer alternative ways of looking at this thing. I do not necessarily endorse them but offer them as seeds that might inspire a more productive conversation.
    I recommend the coverage made by 21st Century Wire:
    https://21stcenturywire.com/
    Debunking the COVID-19 Narrative with Prof. Dolores Cahill:

  173. @Ron Unz

    罗恩——彼得罗宾逊最近对自鸣得意的保守胡佛研究所“不寻常的知识”播客的采访可能会让你感兴趣。

    https://www.hoover.org/research/dr-jay-bhattacharya-his-new-mlb-covid-19-study-and-dilemma-lockdown

    罗宾逊采访了之前参加过该节目的 Jay Bhattacharya 博士。 在之前的采访中,Bhattacharya 对更高的感染死亡率估计值表示怀疑,并支持这样一种观点,即在美国,普通人群的真实感染率远高于记录的感染率。 这似乎得到了在加利福尼亚州两个县进行的血清学研究的支持,该研究表明整个人口的感染率高达 3% 至 4%。

    在这次最新的采访中,Bhattacharya 博士回来讨论了他最近的研究的结果——一项针对整个美国特定就业年龄劳动人群的样本进行的血清学(抗体)测试。 他很兴奋,因为尽管样本不能代表整个美国人口,但至少是一项全国性的研究,而不是一项基于邀请志愿者进行测试的研究。

    在 Robinson 所说的“坏消息”中,Bhattacharya 博士报告说 只有 0.7% 的受检者抗体检测呈阳性. 这表明感染在普通人群中才刚刚开始。 “群体免疫”,如果能够实现,显然是一种 非常 路途漫漫。 很多人会在途中死去。

    尽管很少有真正的专家愿意这么说,但在我看来,使用简单的算术,仅美国的 COVID-19 伤亡人数就可能达到数百万。 如果没有认真尝试大幅减少病例数,这场当代瘟疫将在未来一两年内肆虐美国人口。

    流行病学家胆怯地清楚地阐明最坏的情况(与更乐观、更乐观的情况相反)可能是正在发生的最危险的事情之一。 对比评论家的傲慢、教条式的确定性,他们中的许多人经常访问这个博客,当他们告诉我们这就像一个正常的流感季节时,他们毫不怀疑。

    今年早些时候,Pollyana 的一些预测已经被证明是完全错误的。 特朗普的荒谬是众所周知的,但更难理解的是埃隆马斯克的评论,他肯定不是傻瓜,他在 2020 月初在推特上告诉我们,到 19 年 XNUMX 月,美国将没有新的 COVID-XNUMX 病例。 谁想和埃隆一起兜风?

    • 谢谢: FB
  174. Biff 说:
    @Robert Dolan

    Herd immunity is real

    If that was to be believed you’d be crippled by polio by now.

    • 回复: @Skeptikal
  175. @karel

    Thank you for confirming my point, Karel. I was only there 2 days but other than the myriad of Chinese tourists that see everywhere (obvious, because they were at the tourist sites we visited too), there were almost all white people. These people are not “highly-foreign”. Of course I couldn’t listen to what they say. I could catch a little German, is all.

    The Somalians are not only more visible they are 更洋气. 得到它?

    • 回复: @karel
  176. @Robert Dolan

    Robert, one thing I haven’t read mentioned here is another incentive for deaths to be marked as COVID-19 deaths versus whatever else of many health issues they could be from. That is, insurance payments. I noticed that my health care/insurance company wrote everyone to tell them that and claims “due to” COVID-19 would have not only co-payments waived but also the entire deductible.

    If you know the screwed up system that is the business end of American health care (due to government interference from way back), you know it’s not so easy for doctors and hospitals to collect from patients. (A doctor friend who had 3 offices, had over 20% of the staff involved in billing, meaning tracking down the money, arguing back and forth with insurance companies and patients, etc. … )

    Do you see the incentive for doctors to log everything in their charts that can be COVID-related as such? “It hurts when you do this? Well, you have some antibodies for COVID. Take two aspirin, and by all means, DON’T DO THAT.”

    • 回复: @Alfred
  177. Alfred 说:
    @Anonymous

    Putin … played along and supported America’s war on terrorism and the invasion of Afghanistan

    Correct. The USSR was tricked into Afghanistan by the USA, but their presence did not last for 19 years.

    Putin is not trying to save the world. He is only concerned with the welfare of Russia and of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and so on. If the insiders in the USA want to rob the outsiders, that is none of his business.

    It takes no Sun Tzu to understand that when your opponent is self-destructing you should stay out of it. Kids do it all the time. If two bullies want to take it out on one another, they keep clear.

  178. karel 说:
    @TG

    140 吨
    Yes, maybe is maybe. Maybe will the Swedes be screwed up in one year more than anyone else. Have you thought of that possibility?

  179. Alfred 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Do you see the incentive for doctors to log everything in their charts that can be COVID-related as such?

    Public hospitals in NYC were offered \$40,000 for every patient on a ventilator – no positive test for Covid-19 needed – and \$15,000 for every patient suspected to be with Covid-19. All patients were placed in crowded wards with those who did have Covid-19 until they either got over it or died.

    The ventilator is a great way to bypass the body’s natural defenses and get the virus directly into the lungs. Its tube goes way down the throat and that is why the patient must be sedated.

    I have lost the link. Maybe it has been disappeared.

  180. Da's Reich 说:
    @Robert Dolan

    With regard to nursing homes it seems that they were abandoned everywhere,

    In Ireland where over 60% of deaths have been in nursing homes, the chief medical officer (who acts as though he is running the country) engaged in typical spin when questioned as to how the most vulnerable were left completely unprotected.

    He denied what he had not even been accused of, he said that it was never going to be possible to keep the virus completely away from nursing homes, typical spin and evasion, and of course he got away with it because of our completely controlled and useless media,

    And another thing re this narrative of us as a caring society and it being all about ‘saving lives’

    When my late father was in a nursing home, the staff told me that for the most part they see the bulk of the relatives for the first time when the resident dies, and I can confirm that in all the time I spent in with my father I saw very very few other residents getting regular visits,

    Seems we like to think of ourselves as caring, compassionate beings whereas the reality is somewhat less edifying

  181. karel 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    185 Newman,

    I am overjoyed that I confirmed your point, except I have no idea, which point it was. I have nothing against Somalis as they are good pirates and as Sweden has a strong Pirate party, then they naturally belong there and are not ”more foreign” as you falsely claim. The Somalis have not yet realized that The Czech Pirate party is extremely strong in Prague and do not come here yet in large numbers. Unfortunately, the Czech ”pirates” are more wankers than pirates and it would be good if immigrating Somalis could straighten them up a bit and bring more elan into the local pirates moribund activities. I hope that you agree with me on this point.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
    , @Skeptikal
  182. 在自 COVID-19 出现以来发明的所有新标签中,我认为“恐惧色情”可能是最令人反感的。

    它被用来驳斥任何关于这种疾病对某些人、某些社区和某些国家的严重程度和严重程度的评论。 通过将恐惧和色情混为一谈,这意味着提出担忧的人正在从事病态的手淫幻想。

    总的来说,关于 COVID-19 的公开辩论和适当的公众反应正变得越来越类似于关于人为气候变化的辩论。 一小部分吵闹的自封专家说话时带着尖锐的确定性,并领导着一群相当简单的人,他们想要确信他们真的不必担心这个问题。 那些构成相关多数的科学家发现参与公共废品是令人反感的,因为它可能充满了等级无知和恶意的人身攻击。 本来应该是科学辩论的东西变成了一场谩骂的比赛,其动态更像是一场二流的足球比赛,而不是理性的信息和意见交流。

    这一切不仅可悲地徒劳无功。 它还有助于保护真正的渎职行为。 制药业和医疗系统存在很多问题——这些问题应该受到审查。 疫苗接种是一种经常出现缺陷的技术,通常会被掩盖在地毯下。 但是,当 David Icke 和其他疯子之类的人掌握了 COVID-19 问题、气候变化或几乎任何其他话题时,他们会掀起如此多的尘埃,真正的问题变得不透明。

    当然,政府、学术界和大众媒体正在收获他们在公众广泛不信任方面所缝制的东西。 9/11 的假旗和掩盖在西方世界的 21 世纪理性话语中撕开了一个锯齿状的洞。 它还有待修复。

    • 回复: @Robert Dolan
    , @FB
    , @anon
  183. 450.org 说:
    @Ron Unz

    I agree with this Ron. I’ve been saying this for the past two months or more. Comparing year over year death statistics gives us the most accurate measure of the number of fatalities due to COVID-19. People can parse that and split hairs with it all they want until the cows come home, but that parsing and splitting of hairs won’t result in a material divergence from the fact most if not all of the excess deaths are due to the pandemic and more specifically due to the complications caused by the virus itself. It’s clear to me Russia is grossly undercounting as well.

    It appears that in America at least, it’s not herd immunity that’s the goal but instead maximum death. No PPE for healthcare workers, no masks for the general public or not proper masks and no hand sanitizer (it’s been two months now and hand sanitizer is not a difficult product to manufacture in massive quantities and yet none can be found). On top of that, no comprehensive testing and no comprehensive contact tracing.

    Trump and the cabal that’s using him as a foil are clearly a death cult every bit as much as Jim Jones and The Peoples Temple of the Disciples of Christ were a death cult. Drink the COVID. America is now a contemporary version of Jonestown. This test and trial run is nearly complete. Trump and the cabal using him as a foil have proven that the faithful will do anything he asks and requires of them up to and including genocide.

    Will there be an election in November? I still contend there will not be. All this power is not being consolidated and institutions transformed or hollowed out just to hand it off to another senile batshit insane rapist.

  184. Alfred 说:

    在自 COVID-19 出现以来发明的所有新标签中,我认为“恐惧色情”可能是最令人厌恶的
    ...
    总的来说,关于 COVID-19 的公开辩论和适当的公众反应正变得越来越类似于关于人为气候变化的辩论。

    You are spot on. The same people with the same agenda of reducing the world’s population to one billion are also behind the ongoing manufactured hysteria.

    The girl who was child abused to promote “climate change” has been repurposed to be an expert on “coronavirus”. How much more obvious can it be than that? 🙂

    Greta Thunberg: ‘Our actions can be the difference between life and death for many others’

    仅供参考,由于当前的太阳极小期,气候正在降温并且多年来一直在降温。 这就是火山活动增加的原因。 由于这种影响,预计未来全球粮食短缺。 我不打算详细说明,因为它是题外话。

    • 回复: @Syd Walker
    , @Dumbo
  185. Alfred 说:

    Why Sweden Has Already Won the Debate on COVID ‘Lockdown’ Policy

    If the subject matter were not so serious, the amendment of the headline below would be funny.

  186. nickels 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Today I saw on tv the case of a man who is 29 years old. He survived corvid-19 after weeks in a hospital. Now he is cured. But his throat had to be cut in an emergency and now he has to learn everything again because his case was a difficult case. He sits in a wheelchair. We know that covid can afect many organs, we still don’t know about possible damages that remain.

    谁在乎?

    I know I certainly don’t.

    Grandma got ran over by a reindeer. Oh no cancel Christmas!

    • 哈哈: Alfred
  187. Bro43rd 说:

    Excellent brief article from Tom Woods re: lockdown,
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/05/thomas-woods/your-facebook-friends-are-wrong-about-the-lockdown/
    He has included a free e-book regarding the same but with more detail.

  188. Bat stew 说:
    @Hegar

    No, it’s not right for Sweden to let Corona in many of its care homes run rampant.

    It could have been different as proven within Sweden itself by some regions and municipalities other than Stockholm. Far fewer care homes deaths in these places. The municipality of Sölvesborg even had close to zero. It cannot be a coincidence that Sölvesborg is the only municipality that is governed by the populist Sweden Democrats. They are often touted a controlled pseudo-opposition. But it cannot be denied that they did the right thing when given the chance to.

    It cannot be right for Sweden either that the public health agency made the number of younger patients in ICU a secret. It cannot be right that Stockholm is postponing elective surgeries until after summer. The list goes on and on. It was all preventable.

    The comparison to Norway and Finland is totally justified in every respect. Similar population densities; similar cultures and lifestyles; similar health and welfare systems. By comparison to what these countries have achieved, Sweden is an abject failure. Sweden has even been projected to take a bigger hit to its economy than those countries. They went into partial economic lockdowns, but they are now coming out of them with far fewer deaths.

    The public health agency even claimed that it had not been aware of the conditions in care homes for the elderly. This is like them claiming that they did not know about fermented herring. Totally ridiculous if it wasn’t so depressing.

    Probably they self-censored the care homes out of their heads. Political correctness has made the Swedish so used to double-think and double-speak, that would be plausible. A major problem with Sweden is that all the decisions are taken in Stockholm. The liberal elite in Stockholm is even more politically correct than the rest. They live heavily mortgaged inside a holly-go-lightly bubble that they do not want to see popping at any cost.

  189. Nordic 说:

    This sounds like copied and pasted from the Swedish CDC PR department. Swedish strategi, health care state and resources are pretty much the same as in the UK. The only reason that the situation in Sweden is slightly less a catastrophe compared to that in the UK is probably lower population density.
    If in need of a role model, take a look at Hong Kong. Here described and compared with the UK by a British expat: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vOIvUkOrhSZnrSP8vqSQE7v-Dl3B0jOy/view

  190. @Alfred

    嗨阿尔弗雷德,

    您的评论是对我之前帖子的回应,所以我会依次回复。

    你写道:“气候正在降温,并且已经降温多年”

    除非事实另有说明:

    http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/

    ---

    你还写道:“这就是火山活动增加的原因。”

    除非事实另有说明:

    https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=historicalactivity

    ---

    我知道我知道。 你不相信这些数据。 您更喜欢使用符合您的世界观的反向博客数据。 世界上几乎所有气象研究所和大学都有一个巨大的欺骗公众的阴谋。 你真聪明,看穿了它! 没有讨厌的十几岁的女孩会告诉你 美味 相信什么! “听科学家的”格蕾塔说。 “听我说!” 阿尔弗雷德说。

    阿尔弗雷德,你是否意识到,自 1990 年以来,人类向大气排放的化石碳与工业化开始后每隔十年排放的总量大致相当? 但这些都不可能对地球的气候产生任何影响,不是阿尔弗雷德吗? 这完全取决于太阳周期。 冰河世纪来了。。

    这一切都让 so 对你来说很有意义,不是吗?

    尽管如此,虽然冰川融化的数量和创纪录的高温不会影响您在人为气候变化是否是一个大骗局的问题上的准教皇无误,但您是否正确地认为 COVID-19 无需担心将在今年北方夏天变得明显.

    坚持住,阿尔弗雷德! 现实正在向你走来。 快速地!

    • 不同意: Bro43rd
    • 回复: @gsjackson
    , @Bro43rd
    , @FB
  191. @karel

    Yeah, Karel, you do your pirate thing, but I can’t agree with you on your idea to bring Somalians into Czechia. Do you want to screw over your own people? You are either not a patriotic Czechian or you are a complete moron, one.

    • 回复: @karel
  192. gsjackson 说:
    @Syd Walker

    You look pretty young. Those of us older recall predictions of reality barreling down the road to devastate us that go back to the late ’70s. They started shortly after predictions from the scientific community in the mid ’70s of a new ice age were cashiered. I’m pretty sure Amsterdam was long since supposed to be under water, probably Boston and New York City too.

    Unfortunately for the “climate change” point of view it has a significant track record of predictions, and they make 2.2 million U.S. deaths from covid 19 look on target. Greta’s parents may have forgotten to tell her about that.

    • 谢谢: Alfred
  193. Bro43rd 说:
    @Syd Walker

    No I’m Wyd Stalker & I am right. Serious problem with the left dominated media, academia & internet, one can always find “facts” to support the left view. Fortunately it’s not total dominance so one can usually find “facts” that cover the spectrum. We really won’t know what was the correct path to follow until we can compare yoy death stats from all causes. My guess is Sweden’s response will be shown as best for most of their citizens.
    And to clarify b4 I get slammed as a right wingnut, I’m neither right nor left. Government as it exists is nothing more than a criminal organization that rules by violence. To paraphase Murray Rothbard, the mafia writ large.

  194. RT 说:
    @FB

    Another doctor dealing withCOVID here. Short: Vaccines are not going to solve the problem. Lockdown is not necessary, instead keeping social distance, everybody wearing masks when in close range, esp. in closed premises, and keeping good hand hygiene. Masks do not protect 100% those who wear them , but they prevent the spread, otherwise why we are wearing them in our work. Outdoor is the safest place to be as long as not gathering too much. Sweden’s approach is not the right one, not because of the lack of lockdown, but because of their deliberate negligence for certain population as seen from the above Swedish doctor video.
    问候

    • 谢谢: FB
  195. geokat62 说:

    摘录自 Coding that led to lockdown was ‘totally unreliable’ and a ‘buggy mess’, say experts

    The code, written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, was impossible to read, scientists claim

    The Covid-19 modelling that sent Britain into lockdown, shutting the economy and leaving millions unemployed, has been slammed by a series of experts.

    Professor Neil Ferguson’s computer coding was derided as “totally unreliable” by leading figures, who warned it was “something you wouldn’t stake your life on”.

    https://truemedian.com/2020/05/16/coding-that-led-to-lockdown-was-totally-unreliable-and-a-buggy-mess-say-experts-telegraph-co-uk/

    • 同意: Alfred
  196. KA 说:
    @anon

    Wasn’t there another internet guru here gloating over that Russia had no death no surge , no lockdown ,and no ,and ,no …

    This is an unfolding crisis . We are nowhere near in finding out what works other than almost impracticable isolation.
    We know social distancing, masis, sanitizers help and medical preparedness helps .

  197. utu 说:
    @geokat62

    Russia Today is your source. You should pay attention where the memes and psy-ops are coming from.

    • 回复: @geokat62
  198. utu 说:
    @Anonymous

    From the cosmic point of the view everything we do is kicking can down the road. But form the point of view of the can on the road you my find yourself praying to be kicked down the road before the big truck comes to squash you.

    Is it the same Churchill who let Coventry to be bombed and its people be killed? The people of Coventry were the can on the road that had it coming, right?

    • 同意: but an humble craftsman
    • 回复: @Anonymous
  199. KA 说:
    @Alfred

    Butteileg was created . So was Macron .

  200. Imagine being so weakminded as to fret about “the model, the model”, as you become even more of a slave.

  201. karel 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    202 Newman OK. Was a bit of satire but I read somewhere that Somalis are great lovers and that is the reason why the liberals in power import them to Sweden in large numbers just to satisfy the appetite of local girls an thus get reelected. I am not a girl but can imagine that any decent lass would prefer a little adventure with a former pirate to a pale Swedish social worker. I hope that you will agree with me at last and stop being obstinate.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  202. @Syd Walker

    It’s interesting to compare climate change to the Covid medical coup…..I think the elite simply did a pivot from one to the other.

    Climate change wasn’t getting traction, even with the no tit retard at the helm screeching, “How deh you!”

    Covid 政变已经能够实施形式上站不住脚的警察国家控制,精英们几十年来一直试图实施的控制。

    Now the J-elite is going full on tyranny in an effort to outdo China. They want facial recognition cameras everywhere (lots of them online already) “contact tracing” (spying and tracking)
    他们已经追踪了手机,他们已经可以访问我们的电子邮件和电话,他们已经审查了所有的社交媒体,他们已经将我们从支付处理器和银行中踢了出去。 现在他们已经能够摧毁我们的经济,掠夺国库,破坏小型独立企业,让我们潜在的纳粹大屠杀者在被关在家里时失去工作和未来。
    They see the Constitution and Bill of Rights as “legacy” problems that need to be cancelled.

    一种很好的疫苗可以改变我们的 DNA 来做上帝知道在做什么。

    我什么都没放过他们。

    Icke’s only sin is to call the small hats “lizards.” I don’t follow him but he’s been right about some things.

    只要鼻子控制着媒体,媒体就永远不会重新获得信任,因为媒体一直在说谎。 这就是为什么我觉得有些极右翼分子被 Covid 政变所吸引的原因令人震惊。 起初,当愚蠢的弗格森声称会有数百万人死亡时,我很震惊,但随着情况的发展和新信息的出现,我可以看到他们在做什么,这与公共安全无关。

    • 谢谢: Bro43rd
  203. Skeptikal 说:
    @Biff

    “If that was to be believed you’d be crippled by polio by now.”

    Well last I knew the constant chorus from vaccine advocates is to create “herd immunity.”

    Ad nauseum, as a matter of fact (the chorus).

    So “herd immunity” exists. Period.

    The question is, what it means in the context of different diseases.

    We used to have herd immunity to measles. At least, in the USA we did.

    The evidence is that the advent of the measles vaccine, when the disease was already conquered by the herd (of children), was the cause of the renaissance of measles.

  204. Skeptikal 说:
    @karel

    No Somalis in Cz.

    There are enough problems with Roma.

  205. Dumbo 说:
    @Alfred

    Do expect a future shortage of food worldwide due to this effect.

    I don’t know if due to “cooling” or “warming”, but that infamous Rockefeller Foundation report, besides a “plandemic”, also predicted food shortage… So be prepared.

  206. @onebornfree

    ” . . . historically crises and emergencies were the time-honored way by which people lost their liberties at the hands of their own government. . . .”

    That’s right. The PATRIOT Act bullshit, the FISA court abuses. . . .

  207. Covid-19 是一种惊人的病毒。 主要特征:

    – 治愈流感、麻疹、心脏病、癌症和大多数其他疾病,并废除“自然死亡”……

    – 它是一种聪明的病毒,在公园、体育馆、教堂和学校、体育馆和海滩上具有高度毒性……

    – 对在 Kmart、BigW、Target、Bunnings 工作的数千名员工没有影响…… 尤其是在酒类商店……

    – 该病毒似乎主要针对妈妈和爸爸的企业和理发店,他们总是很少有顾客进门……

    – 该病毒还针对我们的食物链,因为它设法关闭了肉类包装公司,并迫使农民在创纪录的时间内放弃收成……(美国)

    – 建筑和超市工人具有天然免疫力,但显然仍需要接种疫苗……

    – 另外,警服可以治愈病毒……只要您穿警服,就不需要保持社交距离,甚至不需要口罩……

    – 它不会影响儿童,除了少数感染它的人……动物也是如此……

    - 此外,强制布口罩以防止人们大脑中的氧气过多,用漂白剂喷洒海滩和街道,以及在人口稠密地区上空从飞机上喷洒化学空气消毒剂,这些对受这种奇怪影响的人的肺部产生了奇迹般的效果。病毒…

    – 我们将需要数百万台呼吸机……除非我们突然不再需要任何呼吸机……

    ——我们需要征用所有私立医院,让它们只为病毒受害者的雪崩和过度劳累的英雄医生和护士的 TikTok 视频雪崩而开放……

    ——被归类为“看不见的敌人”,永远无法被彻底打败,总是潜伏在阴影中,就像反恐战争一样……

    – 它也爱纽约 – 一种真正的世界性病毒……

    – 有一种名人菌株,以及一种高度致命的病毒菌株……

    – 更令人惊奇的是,在瑞典,您可以拥抱您的孙子孙女,但英国血统禁止这样做……

    – 仅在印度,致命病毒在短短几个月内杀死了 1.3 人后,就设法将 1000 亿人无限期地锁定在家中……

    – 这种病毒造成的每一次生命损失都是悲惨的……然而,将全球 150-500 亿人推入饥饿是必须付出的代价……

    – 专家指出,这种季节性病毒很容易被永远废除的家庭、个人隐私、无法追踪的现金以及所有小型独立农场和企业所击败……

    – 我们现在都可能感染了它,但尽管没有症状,但我们仍然可以感染人并检测出阴性……或检测出阳性……而且我们的抗体可能会,也可能不会产生免疫力……

    – 只有一种政府资助的、仓促测试的强制性疫苗才能拯救我们,每年将其注射给 7 亿人,用于一种不断变异的病毒,其特定毒株早已成为历史……

    – 另外,请注意不要在网上传播有关这种病毒的假新闻或危险的错误信息……确保将其留给 NBC、《华盛顿邮报》、《纽约时报》和世界各地其他可靠的主流媒体记者的专业人士.

    • 哈哈: Bro43rd
  208. @karel

    I wasn’t trying to be obstinate, just truthful, under the assumption that you meant what you wrote. If it was satire, it didn’t come through – probably my fault.

    I am not a girl either, but I could see an aversion to a lefty soi-boy Swedish social worker. That would not push me into the arms of some incandescent-light-bulb-headed Somalian butt-pirate either, though… well, I’m no girl, so how do I know? I think I would choose more wisely, at least if I looked like one of these 2 Swedes:

    The way the immigration invasion is going there, pretty soon Sweden will be facing it’s Waterloo.

    • 回复: @JasonT
    , @karel
  209. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @Syd Walker

    Yet another very good comment from you Syd…

    Thanks for chipping in here…👍

  210. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @Syd Walker

    Syd…I think you’ve made some very good comments here on Covid…but I do wish you hadn’t linked it to climate change…

    The problem for me with the Covid hoaxers is actually very similar to the climate change pushers…both are on the wrong side of science…

    We don’t yet understand very much about Covid…and we certainly understand very little about the climate…fancy models that are based on a lot of *unknowable* variables are NOT a substitute for good fundamental scientific practice…

    • 回复: @Alfred
  211. JasonT 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The one on the left is Norwegian.

    • 回复: @sb
  212. anon[230]• 免责声明 说:
    @Syd Walker

    在自 COVID-19 出现以来发明的所有新标签中,我认为“恐惧色情”可能是最令人反感的。

    它被用来驳斥任何关于这种疾病对某些人、某些社区和某些国家的严重程度和严重程度的评论。 通过将恐惧和色情混为一谈,这意味着提出担忧的人正在从事病态的手淫幻想。

    No, that’s not what it means at all. It means just like there are some addicted to sexual pornography, there are also some who are addicted to fear and the fear mongering that the news media spews out 24 hours a day. What do you suggest we call the lies and data free rumours that the news media spews out 24 hours a day like hospitals are overcrowded, morgues are overflowing, promoting worst case scenarios over reasoned opinions, etc.? Do you have a more descriptive, catchy meme?

    • 同意: Alfred
  213. Incitatus 说:

    Compared with late lock-down USA, Sweden has a lower case rate (259/100k), a higher death rate (31.7/100k), and a much higher mortality rate (12.25%).

    Given those rates, the US would have 845,950 [vs 1,364,517] cases but 103,645 [vs. 80,574] deaths (11 May figures).

    Sweden, after all, is a small country (10,180,000) , slightly larger than half the US State of New York (19,850,000). Is it a laboratory worthy of attention? Of course! Whatever works!

    As long as it’s not grandma or grandpa that’s snuffed.

  214. NOPE。

    You are probably wrong.

    You don’t know these things. The revised history and analysis of this thing is a long way off.

    You are only looking at about 1% of the 已知 factors. To make claims about variance and correlation and population density are beyond absurd.

    在瑞典 0.3 people out of 1000 have died according to the official counts at this point from the virus.

    This is the same as the entire United States. Same number. 每 0.3 万人中有 1000 人死亡.

    The death rate as figured on confirmed cases is twice as high in Sweden. 12% versus 6%.

    Nobody can be sure why that is, but it is easy to offer some simple preliminary theories or explanations for that fact.

    • 同意: Sean
  215. Truth 说:
    @Dumbo

    OK, the word is getting out. I’ve been trying to bring this up for at least 5 years and had the beta here (and in my personal life) tell me I was crazy. It’s coming my friend, it’s going to be loud, and it’s going to be chaotic.

    Too bad it’s so damn late.

  216. Anonymous[304]• 免责声明 说:
    @utu

    From the cosmic point of the view everything we do is kicking can down the road.

    The opposite is called taking it like a man. That’s what Sweden has done, and now everyone else is still kicking their can down the road while Sweden’s looking forward to a normal future.

    • 回复: @utu
  217. Anonymous[269]• 免责声明 说:
    @Robert Dolan

    – 只有一种政府资助的、仓促测试的强制性疫苗才能拯救我们,每年将其注射给 7 亿人,用于一种不断变异的病毒,其特定毒株早已成为历史……

    Every year… So in time-tested tradition, the first few shots will be neutral to mildly beneficial and then the later versions will contain Bill Gates’s / Marina Abramovic’s evil brew. Exactly what that might be will be anyone’s guess.

    • 同意: Brewer
  218. utu 说:
    @Anonymous

    The opposite is called taking it like a man. – Killing old people is taking it like a man for you? An interesting concept of manhood you have.

    Sweden’s looking forward to a normal future. – Norway, Denmark and Finland future will not be stained with blood of thousands of unnecessary deaths by neglect and callousness. If this is not normal for you that you must be a remnant of blood sacrificing cult from somewhere in the Neolithic Middle East.

    • 巨魔: Alfred
    • 回复: @Anonymous
  219. As an anti-globalist, I don’t really think there is such a thing as a best strategy. Every country has different advantages and vulnerabilities, and as Steve Sailer puts out, we can’t compare different policies if every country follows the same policy.

    Probably the biggest takeaway from this pandemic, is to make your country more economically diverse and self-reliant, and don’t make your country over-reliant on international tourism, ponzi-scheme immigration or international education.

    New Zealand for example, has had few deaths, but is likely to suffer a major economic hit since the country is heavily dependent on immigration-driven house building, international tourism and educating foreign students. In contrast, more industrialised and diversified economies like Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands will be less badly affected overall.

  220. @Robert Dolan

    Easily the best summary of what we really know about this virus…

    Anyone who believes it is dangerous is right.

    Anyone who believes it is not dangerous is right.

    It is at once a hoax and all too real.

    This virus culls – it does not annihilate.

    Which means we have to pick the lesser of evils. That is a tough choice for anyone who is a just, good person.

    Thank you for a bit of fresh air tonight….

  221. utu 说:
    @geokat62

    Perhaps you should read it first before posting it mistakingly thinking it supports your argumnet. The Lancet paper by Amitava Banerjee et al. was written in March:

    “Our study has important limitations. The study was developed over a 72-h period before posting the results on March 22, 2020, the day before the UK Prime Minister announced lockdown. First, our models require further data for their development. Commonly, research using NHS data can take months, and even years, partly because of the multiple steps in accessing such data for research.” – The question is why did they feel they act to publish it.

    The most important is that the paper is in full support of lockdowns. They consider two scenarios: (1) Mitigation – COVID-19 prevalence of 10% and (2) Do Nothing – COVID-19 prevalence of 10%. The estimate 18 374 deaths (mitigation) and 146 996 deaths (do nothing) in category with an RR of 1·5 (relative risk). Then they go through all categories: RR of 1·5, RR of 2·0 and RR of 3·0.

    Yes, to mitigation, yes to lockdowns, yes to keeping Covid prevalence as low as possible. geokat62, thank you for your help.

    • 哈哈: geokat62
    • 回复: @geokat62
  222. Anonymous[115]• 免责声明 说:
    @utu

    Sweden’s looking forward to a normal future. – Norway, Denmark and Finland future will not be stained with blood of thousands of unnecessary deaths by neglect and callousness.

    What future? They have no future at all until they end lockdown. They’re in a state of suspended animation, and they’re not even sure what the endgame is.

    If I have a choice betwen coronavirus and Bill Gates’s vaccine, I choose coronavirus. If I have a choice betwen coronavirus and Bill Gates’s vaccine plus a 6 month lockdown, it’s not even close.

    • 回复: @utu
  223. Paul C. 说:
    @Alfred

    BTW, she is a he. Research it.

    • 回复: @Alfred
  224. utu 说:
    @Anonymous

    “What future? They have no future at all until they end lockdown. “ – They will be fine. They will have to isolate themselves from the Swedes who will be still covid carriers. They will enjoy their moral superiority over the cowardly, unmanly, callous, old people killer Swedes.

    “If I have a choice…”. – Listen, your personal choices are irrelevant. They have no bearing on national policies on which lives of many depend. You, probably are locked by your libertarian mind into the prisoner dilemma game which you lose every time as your libertarian is unable to compute cooperative strategies.

  225. bing0 说:
    @SteveK9

    /Sweden did worse than Germany or Denmark, and much better than Italy, Spain, the UK, and France. Why? We’ll be figuring that out, but it isn’t because of lockdown or not … all of those countries did institute a lockdown./

    maybe they did worse, but i think (i didn’t research it) their economy is less ‘infected’ than ours. Here in Belgium we are slowly re-activating everything in slow steps, but i am sure the economic slaughter is already disastrous for many. And i fear the second covid-19 wave will become a fact this year…

  226. geokat62 说:
    @utu

    Perhaps you should read it first before posting it mistakingly thinking it supports your argumnet…

    Yes, to mitigation, yes to lockdowns, yes to keeping Covid prevalence as low as possible. geokat62, thank you for your help.

    I posted these links because the only issue in question was the number of deaths due to the lockdown, remember?

    If you include these deaths in your balance sheet, the non-lockdown case comes out ahead.

    • 回复: @utu
  227. @utu

    utu – you really make your position sound “personal” and not exactly objective.

    The estimates from models have been totally, spectacularly useless which is often the case when you first encounter a system without precedent.

    History tells us that success with corona virus vaccines is not likely.

    China showed that you cannot eradicate even with total isolation.

    UK / US shows that lockdowns can kill oldies. Lockdown too late is same as no lockdown.

    Sweden shows that non-oldies (younguns) are basically ok to expose to virus.

    Denmark/Finland shows that lockdowns can save oldies.

    So policy wonks – for Wave 2 based on channelling my inner-Mengele:

    No lockdown for younguns. Highly regulated community isolation for non-covid oldies who *选择* to do so. Stick sick oldies in hospital and if that fails then normal palliative care – support oldies to *选择* their own destiny ie strict isolation, community isolation, just palliative care, or no ventilators, or give intubation, or whatever floats their boat…

    I have not met one old person, ie above 80, who prefers long-term isolation over dying in the next few weeks with loved ones nearby. I am sure many exist – I just don’t know them.

    I have met numerous adultchilds that righteously talk of completely isolating their parents to “protect” them. They teach them how to use Zoom and deliver food at the door.

    Utu – The former are normal people. The latter are cowards. The old people that agree with adultchilds are normal people.

    • 回复: @utu
  228. “拉平曲线”——或者理想情况下“压扁曲线”——的原因之一是它可以争取时间。

    所有未受感染的人(仍然是绝大多数人)都可能受益于正在整理和分析的信息、正在进行的研究以及正在开发的新疗法。 不幸死去的人不能。

    一套减缓感染率的有效措施也为医疗系统提供了时间来适应——并让个人采取改善行动。

    不用说,所有这些都可以结合使用。

    例如,越来越多的证据表明,维生素 D 水平低与 COVID-19 死亡人数在很大程度上相关。 由于适量的维生素 D 是无害且便宜的,而且有证据表明美国和欧洲人口中有很大一部分习惯性地缺乏维生素 D(尤其是深色皮肤的人),在我看来,没有充分的理由不立即鼓励人们服用维生素 D 补充剂,除非他们的医生建议反对。

    对于那些对这个话题感兴趣的人,我推荐乔·罗根最近对营养学家朗达·帕特里克博士的采访(从 29.30 开始观看):

    • 回复: @Alfred
  229. utu 说:

    Sweden vs. Europe: 30 European countries are compared. Population density correlates with deaths/million data. The population density explains 28% of variance in 30 countries mortality data. When the four top outliers (Sweden, Ireland, France and Belgium) are removed the population density explains 57% of variance in data. The data presented in the following graph are deaths/million divided by the population density. This dividing reduces the variance in data for the 26 countries by factor of two. Sweden is the worst outlier. It is 4SD above the median and 12 times higher than median. Only four countries (Sweden, Ireland, France, Belgium) are 1SD above the median. Austria, Slovenia, Portugal and Norway are closest to the median. Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria are the best performing countries and Ireland, France and Belgium are the worst performing countries among those which implemented countermeasures.

    对无人区的人口密度进行了校正。 例如,与算术人口密度相比,这种修正使西班牙的人口密度增加了 7.9 倍,而比利时的人口密度仅增加了 1.2 倍。 按照这个指标,西班牙是欧洲人口最稠密的国家,其次是荷兰、英国、意大利和比利时。

    https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/

    如果我们能够计算疾病有效人口密度(DEPD),其中每个死亡人数被分配到他/她居住或感染的平方公里的人口密度,然后总结并除以死亡人数,那么甚至超过 57%方差将从死亡率数据中删除。

    • 回复: @qwop
    , @Alfred
  230. utu 说:

    How bad is Sweden? Sweden is worse than each of 29 European countries when the metric of death per capita normalized by the population density is used. Sweden is 2 x worse than France, 3.7 x worse than Italy, 4.5 x worse than UK, 5.4 x worse than Spain, 7.7 x worse than Switzerland, 13 x worse than Slovenia, 17 x worse than Germany., 35 x worse than Poland, 102 x worse than Greece, 310 x worse than Slovakia.

    If Sweden’s callous policy was tried in France 2 x more people would die in France, 3.7 x more people would die in Italy, 4.5 x more would die in UK,…

    • 同意: Incitatus
  231. sb 说:
    @JasonT

    The one on the left was born in Norway in 1945 to a Norwegian mother and a German soldier father

  232. utu 说:
    @PuttingTheSlimBackInMuslim

    ” …you really make your position sound “personal” and not exactly objective.” – Are you that young that you still believe in the ‘objective’? Everything is personal. The so called ‘objectivity’ and ‘truth’ when it comes to debates are just rhetorical tools. If you can convince the other party you are in the possession of the truth you ‘win’ or at least that is what people have agreed on.

    In the exchange with the Anonymous[115] I was pushed into more passionate and moral arguments by him, though perhaps there would be a better retort to his stating that letting old people die in Sweden was manly. My default is to assume good faith and general intelligence but when after few exchanges my assumption is falsified I have not come up with the best methods of how to disengage because some idealism in me still believes that even idiots and people of bad faith can be compelled to see the light. I do not mean my NKVD issue Nagant.

  233. qwop 说:
    @utu

    You’re trying to regress a non-linear relation on a linear form. Use the logarithm of your ordinate, and then report which are the outliers.

    • 巨魔: utu
    • 回复: @utu
  234. geokat62 说:

  235. utu 说:
    @qwop

    No fitting, no regression, no assumption about the functional form is involved in defining outliers here. It is just median M and standard deviation SD that are used to find points y for which |y-M|>k*SD where k sets the closeness of the razor edge which shaves off the outliers and where y is what is on the ordinate axis. Sweden is k≈4 outlier, 4 standard deviations form the median.

    Don’t be a troll.

    • 回复: @qwop
  236. utu 说:
    @geokat62

    “I posted these links because…” – You posted these links because you like to shoot yourself in the foot. You need to develop a habit of reading the instruction manual of the gun first or the articles that you intend to launch at somebody.

    • 回复: @geokat62
  237. qwop 说:
    @utu

    You normalize by population density, to “correct” for this confounding factor. However, there should be some theory behind why the population density matters.

    Now let’s see. Obviously, higher population density leads to more contacts between people. So far, so good. But why should that relation be linear? What theoretical underpinning do you have for this? Isn’t it expected to be non-linear?

    Off the top of my head, I would expect it to be exponential, because the time between contacts is reduced linearly, then the number of generations that are infected is increased linearly, but each generation represents exponential growth.

    你不同意吗?

    • 回复: @qwop
    , @utu
  238. qwop 说:
    @qwop

    And if you do agree, then I think it is obvious that you should examine not “Deaths per population per population density” but rather “Log(Deaths per population) per population density”. I did not know what the outcome was of this tedious exercise (of collecting all the data in a spreadsheet) when I posted my initial comment, but having done that work now I find Finland and Ireland at the top, with Sweden a third.

    And if you do not agree, then I am curious to hear your reasoning.

  239. Anon[522]• 免责声明 说:
    @utu

    But it is not just the idiot in front of you.
    Truth has its own flight.. you set it free.
    Dialogue in good faith also sets it free. Or sets free glimpses of it.
    There can be more than one reader/listener.

    The value of old people lies not in their productivity but in the fact that they enrich our lives. Taking care of them is the price we have to pay if we wish to remain fully human.

    Sweden’s “example” serves as a warning. Denouncing Swedish policy clarifies the issue: it is very unmanly to let our elders fend for themselves or die.

  240. geokat62 说:
    @utu

    You posted these links because you like to shoot yourself in the foot.

    lol, let the dust settle a bit… and even the blind will be able to tell who’s shot himself in the foot.

    • 回复: @utu
  241. utu 说:
    @qwop

    57% variance explained (correlation=0.75) for 26 countries indicates pretty strong linear relationship. I did not discern any functional dependence in the residuals. No sign of logarithm, exponential, power law there – just pretty random scatter that possible could be reduced by additional confounding variables like people/apartment, old people fraction, obesity, smoking…

    “There should be some theory behind…” & “I would expect it to be exponential” – I would tend to agree but I can’t argue with the empirical data. The exponential growth happens only very early into the epidemic and lasts for a short time as voluntary and involuntary countermeasures kicks in as the super-spreaders are being depleted.

    “I think it is obvious that you should examine not “Deaths per population per population density” but rather “Log(Deaths per population) per population density”” – No. I checked it. Correlation drops significantly if you do it.

    “I find Finland and Ireland at the top, with Sweden a third.” – You are using wrong data or making a mistake. Ireland is pretty bad but Sweden is 1.2 time worse and Finland is 4.2 time better than Sweden.

    For deaths/1M I used: Worloometers.Info. and for population density w/o the uninhabited areas I used
    https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/02/theres-a-better-way-to-measure-population-density/552815/

    • 回复: @qwop
  242. utu 说:
    @geokat62

    ” let the dust settle a bit” – I will be there waiting for you.

    • 回复: @geokat62
  243. Anonymous[115]• 免责声明 说:
    @utu

    They will have to isolate themselves from the Swedes who will be still covid carriers.

    Two mistakes in one short sentence. Firstly, the Swedes won’t be carriers for much longer. Their epidemic will burn itself out and they will all be negative and mostly be immune. Secondly, how do you propose they isolate from their next door neighbour with whom they share an extremely long border? And what about every other country in the world? Do you think quarantine of all arriving passengers at the airport is practical? Or do you trust those magic tests to give a 99.999% accurate result needed to screen 1 million passengers a year for 10 years and only let one case through, assuming 1% carriers?

    It’s unrealistic and insane.

    They will enjoy their moral superiority over the cowardly, unmanly, callous, old people killer Swedes.

    Right, just like all of the nations who entered the fray in ww2 get to enjoy moral superiority over those who didn’t. Well, it may have been an unnecessary bloodbath that set the continent back decades but i suppose you do have a point.

  244. @utu

    Being old(er) doesn’t make us unable to stay dispassionate.

    I hope you didn’t take my remarks as an ad hominem attack. It was meant to be gentle at worst.

    I get it that you felt that you were talking to an idiot. So don’t respond. Micro-deplatforming I guess would be an apt term.

    I am on the ebbing side of life – the docs tell me I’m old(er) and in a high(er) risk group.

    The lockdowns make sense by the numbers – just like financialization of the economy. I think the lockdown is a fallacy. A simple, obvious answer that is wrong. Reason often tells us that numbers are not the sum of the story when it comes to reality.

    Have a great weekend. I meant no offence.

    • 谢谢: utu
  245. geokat62 说:

  246. Alfred 说:
    @FB

    The problem for me with the Covid hoaxers is actually very similar to the climate change pushers…both are on the wrong side of science…

    They are the same people with the same agenda. The script changes but the actors are the same. They want us to return to Feudalism with a much lower population.

    Motion to Arrest Bill Gates in Italian Parliament

    (Italian with English Subtitles)

  247. Alfred 说:
    @Paul C.

    BTW, she is a he. Research it.

    Thank you. It is all beginning to make sense. Only 1% of women are psychopaths but 10% of men are.

    The same thing in some states in the USA. These people deserve to be hanged, drawn and quartered.

  248. Alfred 说:
    @Syd Walker

    “拉平曲线”——或者理想情况下“压扁曲线”——的原因之一是它可以争取时间。

    No it doesn’t. Services and goods that should have been offered and manufactured don’t. Rents and interest payments don’t grind to a halt. Those locked up are like prisoners. It is not some sort of vacation except for the Bill Gates’ of this world.

    你愿意为你和你的家人避免一天的牢狱之灾?

    那些被关起来的人失去工作的机会有多大?

    The biggest airline in the USA, United Airways, got a huge dollop of cash from the government – \$5bn. Nevertheless, they are going to sack 22,000 of their 25,000 cabin crew. What do you think these people are going to do? Work as waiters and waitresses?

    A similar process is happening right across the board. Obviously, they will be needing far fewer mechanics, less insurance, less fuel and less of a multitude of other items and services. Where do you think the \$5bn is coming from. It is coming from your pockets. Keynesianism is a lie. Real resources not come out of thin air.

    这个网站上有很多明显的巨魔,很难指出他们所有的自私谎言。

    United Airlines only needs 3,000 of 25,000 flight attendants in June – sources (Reuters)

  249. Alfred 说:
    @utu

    The population density explains 28% of variance in 30 countries mortality data.

    Have you ever visited Sweden? I don’t think so.

    Sweden is a highly-urbanized society. No one lives much north of Stockholm. Your chart is meaningless.

    The map below of Stockholm contains around half the population of Sweden. The vast majority of those who died from Covid19 live in this area. It is about 400 square kilometers (15 square miles) when water and forests are excluded.

    How does that tie in with your fake and deliberately misleading hypothesis?

    • 回复: @FB
  250. geokat62 说:

    Welcome to the USSR, comrade!

    YouTube censors epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski for opposing lockdown

    https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/youtube-censors-epidemiologist-knut-wittkowski-for-opposing-lockdown/

  251. geokat62 说:

    Professor Karol Sikora: fear is more deadly than the virus

    描述:

    Freddie Sayers interviews Professor Karol Sikora, the Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine at the University of Buckingham Medical School and an ex-director of the WHO Cancer Programme.

    Read the full accompanying article here: https:// unherd.com/professor-karol-si…

    Professor Karol Sikora has become something of a celebrity in the UK over the past months for his expert commentary on the pandemic, and his unusual tendency for optimism rather than pessimism.

    Virus ‘getting tired’
    – In the past two weeks, the virus is showing signs of petering out
    – It’s as though the virus is ‘getting tired’, almost ‘getting bored’
    – It’s happening across the world at the same time

    Existing herd immunity
    – The serology results around the world (and forthcoming in Britain) don’t necessarily reveal the percentage of people who have had the disease – He estimates 25-30% of the UK population has had Covid-19, and higher in the group that is most susceptible
    – Pockets of herd immunity help *已经* explain the downturn
    – Sweden’s end result will not be different to ours lockdown versus no lockdown

    Fear more deadly than the virus
    – When the history books are written, the fear will have killed many more people than the virus, including large numbers of cancer and cardiological patients not being treated
    – We should have got the machinery of the NHS for non-corona patients back open earlier

    Masks and schools
    – Evidence on masks is just not there either way so it should be an ‘individual decision’
    – We should move to 1m social distancing which means restaurants and bars could reopen
    – More schools should reopen in June as ‘children are not the transmitters of this virus’
    – We should be getting back to the ‘old normal’ not a ‘new normal’

  252. Anonymous[115]• 免责声明 说:
    @Alfred

    这个网站上有很多明显的巨魔,很难指出他们所有的自私谎言。

    Yes it is, but you’re doing well. Keep going, my friend.

    • 同意: gsjackson
  253. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @Alfred

    You are right on the money with your rebuttal to retarded utu, Alfred…

    His notions about population density are quite meaningless exactly due to the fact you pointed out about population concentrations…which simply aren’t reflected in countrywide population density metrics…

    I generally agree with utu on the need for social distancing measures and even a lockdown [China is the example of how to do it], but his line of arguments has been doing more harm than good in a lot of cases, by being spectacularly easy to dismiss with basic observations as you just did…

    It has been infuriating for me to watch his nonsense here…he tries to tackle the problem with simple math and simple assumptions…and the results are as you just showed with his population density stupidity…[although utu does have a very real ‘density’ problem of a different sort…]

  254. qwop 说:
    @utu

    You fail to see the point of my comment.

    By the Rayleigh-Ritz theorem, we know that we can find some other functional form that will let us “explain more of the variance”. I just did a quick check and find that deaths per million raised to the power of 1.5 is an improvement. But we cannot take an improved correlation to mean “better”, since that would be tantamount to mistaking “correlation” for “causation”, albeit in a somewhat more obscure way.

    You state that the growth is only exponential in the beginning. Well, in that case, we surely have to control for when the different countries had their first death, since they will be differently far along the curve. In fact, maybe we should extrapolate to infinite time before we make the comparison? For that, we need a model for how to expect the behavior of the death rate to change with time.

    If we don’t base our reasoning on any underlying logic and models, then I dare say I’m not trusting any of the results.

    • 回复: @utu
  255. gsjackson 说:
    @Alfred

    Just to add a small point about United and the other airlines, as well as the cruise industry. Not only have they secured a prime seat at the government teat, they are refusing to give refunds for canceled flights and cruises. I’ve had one of each by which I was going to Europe canceled, with only the opportunity to go through major hassles in rescheduling sometime in the future as compensation.

    Sounds like a heck of a business model to me — hold out one hand to government and with the other collect full fares for flights and cruises that were scheduled and offered for sale well after the lockdown mania started, then cancel and don’t incur the cost of providing the service.

  256. utu 说:
    @qwop

    My first reaction was correct. You are a troll of the pompous windbag variety.

  257. Alfred 说:

    I’ve had one of each by which I was going to Europe canceled, with only the opportunity to go through major hassles in rescheduling sometime in the future as compensation.

    Don’t be disappointed. You might have struck gold. Flights are going to cost a lot more in the future. 2019 will never return. I suspect my return flight to Australia from Europe may cost 3 times as much when they restart. A good reason for not returning to that paranoid society.

    They shut down a country of 24 million for 99 deaths – probably of elderly or obese people. Now, they cannot reopen without letting in the virus. It is Autumn there. A good time for the flu. They could have obtained all their antibodies where there was more sunshine and a stronger immunity. What twits!

    Coronavirus Updates Live (Australia)

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  258. @Alfred

    “那些被关起来的人就像囚犯一样。”

    垃圾。 幼稚的夸张。 疫情期间,美国有哪些人被关在家里?

    凯恩斯主义是谎言。 真正的资源不是凭空而来的。

    这些句子写得不好,粗鲁而且非常简单。 除此之外,我不会咬人。 一天只有这么几个小时。。

    这个网站上有很多明显的巨魔

    你的意思是那些不同意你观点的人?

    • 回复: @Alfred
    , @Wielgus
  259. Anonymous[115]• 免责声明 说:
    @Alfred

    I suspect my return flight to Australia from Europe may cost 3 times as much when they restart. A good reason for not returning to that paranoid society.

    Australia used to be the land of cold beers, Waltzing Matilda, and Ned Kelley. Now it’s a super paranoid, politically correct police state. How did it change so much so fast?

  260. Alfred 说:
    @Syd Walker

    你的意思是那些不同意你观点的人?

    I present incontrovertible data and facts. You use ad hominem attacks because the facts and reality don’t suit your purpose.

    “utu” is just repeating at great length the garbage in the mainstream media. The status quo must be preserved at all costs. He must spend hours every day at a cubicle at GCHQ, or similar, weaving his meaningless lengthy monologues. 🙂

  261. Wielgus 说:
    @Syd Walker

    I don’t know about the USA, whose implementation seems to vary a lot from place to place, but in many countries under lockdown you can be fined or even arrested if outside your residence for a reason the police did not approve. Parallels with open prisons are hard to avoid. As I have noted elsewhere, even some of the vocabulary suggests a tendency to think the vast mass of people are criminals – why call it “lockdown”, for example?
    Encouraging your neighbours to inform on you may not exactly be a prison – more of a police state. But of course, it’s for your own good.

  262. Doly 说:

    Not a single person had it twice? Funny, I know anecdotal evidence, from people I have personally talked with on the phone, of people getting it twice. I don’t know if it was relapse or reinfection, but either way, I’m rather positive it’s possible to get it twice.

    And let’s not forget that what justifies Sweden’s strategy is that herd immunity is possible. If relapse and/or reinfection are possible and relatively common (say, about 5% of patients), that drives a huge hole in the whole herd inmunity strategy. With relapses you can’t say that somebody is safe to be around, and with reinfection there is simply no herd immunity possible. Another thing that is possible with some diseases, including the common cold, that is a relative of covid, is that reinfection in somebody who had it before turns them into an asymptomatic carrier. Again, that destroys the whole herd immunity strategy.

    So if Sweden actually found evidence that it’s possible to get it twice, it wouldn’t surprise me that they would find ways to fail to see it, because it would cause them a lot of trouble. Personally, I think it’s a mistake for them to say that herd immunity is their strategy, when they don’t even know if herd immunity is possible. If they had stuck to their initial claim, saying that they are protecting the most vulnerable while allowing the healthy to get it, they wouldn’t be in so much trouble. Then, it’s harder to justify such a strategy if you don’t assume that herd immunity is possible.

    • 同意: FB
  263. JPKL 说:

    Sweden’s death rate is 8X that of Norway. Check Worloometers.Info. 冠状病毒

    Sweden did a terrible job of protecting its old, weak people. 40% of nursing home staff are untrained contract workers, and 23% are temporary.

    If a country doesn’t care much about the safety of their weak, old people, shove them in large nursing homes with hundreds of patients, and let them be taken care of by underpaid workers lacking protective equipment.

    Viva la Sweden!

    PS When I tried to publish my response and a someone else had used my pseudonymic handle, my comments were erased when I returned to correct it. Please correct this time wasting flaw. Thank you.

    • 谢谢: FB
  264. @Buzz Mohawk

    Good question. They are related.
    The answer is, Swedes don’t have a history of being oppressors or victims in comparison with other countries. And local traditions were wiped out a century ago by the state. We Swedes are strangers in our own country. So, we don’t fear immigrants will destroy our swedishness.

    Many would of course not agree. Especially populists who wish to grab power. It doesn’t matter. Swedes have learnt to deal with the situation at hand instead of whining about it. If we really cared if other nations approve of our approach or not, we wouldn’t pursue it.

    Here is link to an article with some historical background why Sweden is pretty unique:
    https://steemit.com/corona/@lennartmogren/sweden-s-take-on-corona-explained-by-history

    • 回复: @Buzz Mohawk
  265. Waldemar 说:

    A very biased opinion that MAY or NOT work in SW but definitely nowhere else! Do you like to apply SW’s death rate of 366/1m people to Russia of US? Complete lunacy to say that SW is a good model.
    Still, SW’s policy could be > no old or seek people in any more.

    • 回复: @geokat62
  266. U2GT 说:
    @anon

    You need to read this book. It’s free BTW: http://www.wrongaboutlockdown.com/

    Your position is false and misleading. The article is right on the mark. You’re scared like the rest of them. You love statism and controlling people. You were probably one of those people screaming to not let Georgia open up and there are no issues at all. The virus swept through. It’s over. All we need to do is protect the elderly as best possible. Let the rest of the country get it and then when we reach herd immunity the elderly will be protected that much more. Everyone is going to eventually get this. It will keep cycling until we get herd immunity. To think you can stop a virus or death is ignorant and even childish. Grow up.

    “…and Americans are much less healthy than Swedes..”

    Yes, and therefore it’s survival of the fittest applies, and those that smoke or eat junk food deserve what’s coming to them. Don’t lock down me, a healthy person, for their faults.

    “Unstated in this man’s macabre rantings: to get to herd immunity in the U.S. will require millions of deaths and tens of millions of hospitalizations, along with the complete destruction for our hospital system. ”

    There is now way in hell you can back this statement up. It’s absolutely false. We would still protect th elderly best we can. You’re assuming we would do absolutely nothing for anyone. Seriously, stop posting crap like this. You must be a very scared and insecure individual. It’s people like you who contribute to crony capitalism, bureaucracy and statism, all of which has ruined this country.

    I’ve become convinced that many who support the lock downs and/or are scared to go out have this idea that we’re going to eradicate this virus before they ever get it. That is absurd and is not going to happen unless we get to herd immunity or a vaccine. And herd immunity works while vaccines don’t always work. We cannot lock down for another one to two years. And we don’t get to herd immunity unless we go out. If you are elderly or immune compromised (e.g., high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, smoker, other disease, etc), then by all means please be safe and stay home. Even if you’re healthy, you have every right to stay home. But don’t complain about others who have families to provide for and want to work. They can take care of themselves just fine and you won’t get infected by them because you chose to be home. Stop complaining and stay the heck home while we build herd immunity to protect you. Just like other viruses don’t go away and come back year after year, accept that this one will linger and/or will return. Start focusing on a strong immune system (diet, exercise, sun, human interaction) and stop fearing the inevitable. There is no cure for death. Time to get back to the wonderful thing we called life.

    The virus is moving through the sheeple just like any other coronavirus. It will come and go, and it will be back next year just like the flu. Accept it and deal with it. We live in an amazing time and have so many great technologies and comforts that our ancestors couldn’t imagine. However, our ancestors were certainly tougher and more courageous. They would have handled this virus so easily, and we would have been cry babies if we lived in historical periods (some people need to be sent back in time to the dark ages to see what it was like). I’m tired of the whining and fear mongering. My grandparents escaped Nazi Germany but some family members were murdered. My mom’s uncle escaped a concentration camp. My mom was born in Haifa before Israel was formed and was dirt poor. My grandmother had to walk miles in the desert heat to a doctor when she was deathly ill (almost died). Most of this country has no idea what tragedy and suffering is really like. It’s not this virus, that’s for sure. This virus is a common cold compared to what so many have experienced in the past. This virus is a non-event in the grand scheme of this planet’s history (4.5B years old). “Modern” Homo sapiens (that is, people who were roughly like we are now) first walked the Earth about 50,000 years ago (but not more than 100,000). Since then, more than 108 billion members of our species have ever been born, according to estimates by Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Given the current global population of about 7.5 billion (based on our most recent estimate as of 2019), that means those of us currently alive represent about 7% of the total number of humans who have ever lived. Be humbled by these statistics and be thankful you got a chance to live on this amazing blue ball called earth even a few years. The average age in 1900 was 45-50 years old. Today it’s about 78. We should be celebrating the progress we have made and appreciate what we have learned from the curveballs that mother nature throws at us. It’s a continuous process of learning from all aspects of the human experience. Stop being so fearful of death. Mother nature sets the rules. If she decides to create a virus to take out the human race, then so be it. You either have an immune system that is genetically wired to fight off certain infections or you are healthy and can endure it’s wrath. Unfortunately “survival of the fittest” still applies to the human race. Accept your fate. This country needs to grow up and find the courage to face life’s uncertainties. It’s how we overcome the risk and uncertainty over time that makes the experience of life so incredible. Don’t fear life and death. Embrace them.

  267. geokat62 说:
    @Waldemar

    Do you like to apply SW’s death rate of 366/1m people to Russia of US?

    比利时786
    西班牙593
    意大利529
    法国433
    英国513
    瑞典371
    美国278

    • 回复: @Incitatus
  268. U2GT 说:

    Boom! This video sums it all up. Wow, this doc rips the narrative into pieces.

    • 回复: @R2b
  269. geokat62 说:

    David Starkey: Covid-1 9 — Britain’s Disastrous Response Will Have Devastating Consequences

    描述:

    This week on “So What You’re Saying Is…”: Dr. David Starkey argues that a calamitous series of events and decisions caused a panicked British government to recklessly abandon its sensible coronavirus plan for one that is likely to harm the nation far more than the virus itself.

    Comparing this virus with historical pandemics Starkey believes the dire situation we are encountering today has a different cause. Earlier pandemics such as the Black Death eradicated up to half of the population of Europe. In contrast, although it is profoundly tragic on a personal level to the individuals and familiies it afflicts, coronavirus is nowhere near as devastating on a population-wide level as previous pandemics. Consequently, Starkey argues, the Conservative government was correct to follow a similar path to Sweden which was far more relaxed than elsewhere in Europe.

    This approach suited Prime Mlnister Boris Johnson’s libertarian attitude and personality. But on a single weekend there was a calamitous confluence of events and decisions that caused the Tory government to panic (Northwick Park hospital overwhelmed, Imperial College modelling showing potential 500,00 deaths etc.) and enforce an extreme lockdown without any plan to deal with the epidemic. It was simply a goal to protect the NHS.

    Protect the NHS: The Tory Government, says Dr. Starkey, was desperate not to be seen as responsible or the NHS being overwhelmed. Eager to prove to the traditional Labour “Red Wall” that the Conservative Party really was their natural home, the British government prioritised the NHS’s capacity to deal with Covid-19 over everything else– but disastrously this included its treatment of cancer patients etc. A bizarre and unprecdented abandoning of the Hippocratic oath that we have not seen in other countries, argues Starkey.

  270. Herald 说:
    @karel

    You claim sanctuary from further debate, on the basis that you made no claims about the accuracy of COVID-19 tests. Nevertheless, you had previously thought it fitting to abuse Dumbo on the basis, of merely pondering about the accuracy of those self-same tests, in what was an (Dumbo’s) excellent post. You are taking twisted logic to new heights, congratulations.

    • 回复: @karel
  271. Incitatus 说:
    @geokat62

    With Sweden’s COVID-19 rates, USA would have fewer cases (989,834 vs. 1,550,632) but more deaths ( 120,294 vs. 91,582). Sweden’s mortality rate (12.15%) is over twice the US rate (5.9%).

    With Sweden’s rates Canada would have 122,123 cases [vs. 79,077] and 13,626 deaths [vs. 5,909].

    去的身影。

    Stay safe, Geo

    • 回复: @geokat62
    , @glib
  272. geokat62 说:
    @Incitatus

    With Sweden’s COVID-19 rates…

    Hey, Incy! Interesting analysis.

    I wonder what your little comparison would look like if we replaced the Swedish case and fatality numbers with those of Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, or France?

    保持良好。

    • 回复: @Incitatus
  273. Incitatus 说:
    @geokat62

    Outside the matrix, but never mind.

    Compare any/all to New York rates. 1778 cases/100k, 115.1 deaths/100k.

    Canada, given NY rates would suffer 658,763 [vs. 79,077] cases and 42,648 deaths [vs. 5.909].

    Go-figure!

    Stay-well Geo.

  274. glib 说:
    @Incitatus

    It is amazing that this late in the discussion people write about mortality rates of 10%. We are at close to 60 papers and local measurements measuring the IFR, the rate at which exposed people die. Except for a Ohio prison at 1.4%, all measurements have come in below 1.0%, averaging between 0.2 and 0.3%. Three Sweden measurements are right in that group.

    • 回复: @Incitatus
  275. karel 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Well, the one on the left already looks to me like a half Somali. The evidence is obvious to any trained observer,especially as the two incessantly sing ”Mama Mia” or whatever is the slimy text of that song. Perhaps the darker one does it in memory of her mother having a rather good time in the past.

    • 回复: @but an humble craftsman
  276. karel 说:
    @Herald

    I hope that Dumbo knows something about the accuracy of writing. Do you?

    • 回复: @Herald
  277. Agent76 说:

    May 20, 2020 Watch: Official reminds the public to avoid touching other people’s balls

    As the country slowly reopens amid the pandemic, officials are reminding residents to maintain certain social distancing measures — like not touching other people’s balls.

    • 哈哈: geokat62
  278. jonswift 说:
    @Quinsat

    You might need to check your facts.

    I found this online at the New Zealand Herald:

    The Abortion Legislation Bill removes abortion from the Crimes Act and drops any legal test for having the procedure earlier than 20 weeks, leaving the decision up to the woman and her doctor.
    And for an abortion to take place after 20 weeks, it can only be approved if deemed necessary to save the woman’s life or prevent serious injury.

  279. Sweden 36 deaths per 100,000 people. Finland, Norway and Denmark were 4, 5 and 9 per. Sweden is hardly a victor in this.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  280. Incitatus 说:
    @glib

    “It is amazing that this late in the discussion people write about mortality rates of 10%”.

    Why is it “amazing”? What “discussion”?

    Mortality rates are what they are. Citing them changes nothing. What should people – in your view -write about?

    “We are at close to 60 papers and local measurements measuring the IFR, the rate at which exposed people die.”

    Kindly enlighten us. Would 61 papers change the death toll, resurrect the dead?

    • 回复: @glib
  281. Anonymous[196]• 免责声明 说:
    @ScottCraigLeBoo

    They’re all so low its hard to see the signal for the noise.

    Honestly, these numbers are LOW. Can we all just get over this now?

  282. glib 说:
    @Incitatus

    Help yourself. It will not be difficult to find four Swedish studies in those 60 (they were 59 yesterday)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/edit#gid=0

    • 回复: @Incitatus
  283. geokat62 说:

    Professor Sunetra Gupta: the epidemic is on its way out:

    描述:

    [更多]

    Read the accompanying article on UnHerd: https:// unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-dou…

    We spoke to Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford and head of the team that released a study in March which speculated that as much as 50% of the population may already have been infected and the true Infection Fatality Rate could be as low as
    0.1%。

    In her first major interview since the Oxford study was published, she goes further by arguing that Covid-19 has already passed through the population and is now on its way out. She said:

    On antibodies:
    • Many of the antibody tests are “extremely unreliable”
    • They do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity
    • “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour”
    • “Much of the driving force was due to the build-up of immunity”

    On IFR:
    • “Infection Fatality Rate is less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.”
    • That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%

    On lockdown policy:
    • Referring to the Imperial model: “Should we act on a possible worst case scenario, given the costs of lockdown? It seems to me that given that the costs of lockdown are mounting that case is becoming more and more fragile”
    • Recommends “a more rapid exit from lockdown based more on certain heuristics, like who is dying and what is happening to the death rates”

    On the UK Government response:
    • “We might have done better by doing nothing at all, or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable”

    On the R rate:
    • It is “principally dependent on how many people are immune” and we don’t have that information.
    • Deaths are the only reliable measure.

    On New York:
    • “When you have pockets of vulnerable people it might rip through those pockets in a way that it wouldn’t if the vulnerable people were more scattered within the general population.”

    On social distancing:
    • “Remaining in a state of lockdown is extremely dangerous”
    • “We used to live in a state approximating lockdown 100 years ago, and that was what created the conditions for the Spanish Flu to come in and kill 50m people.”

    On next steps:
    • “It is very dangerous to talk about lockdown without recognising the enormous costs that it has on other vulnerable sectors in the population” • It is a “strong possibility” that if we return to full normal tomorrow — pubs, nightclubs, festivals — we would be fine.

    On the politics of Covid:
    • “There is a sort of libertarian argument for the release of lockdown, and I think it is unfortunate that those of us who feel we should think differently about lockdown”
    • “The truth is that lockdown is a luxury, and it’s a luxury that the middle classes are enjoying and higher income countries are enjoying at the expense of the poor, the vulnerable and less developed countries.”

  284. Anon[276]• 免责声明 说:

    Swedish opinion survey reveals what seems to be a high number of Covid-19 patients with
    persistent symptoms. These people were never hospitalized in most cases. The survey speaks of up to 860,000 Swedes altogether who have cold-like symptoms at the moment. Covid-19 seems to present itself in a somewhat binary way. Mostly it either blows over relatively quickly, or it persists for weeks on end.

    https://novus.se/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20200519engnovusnumberofsickandsocialdistancing.pdf

  285. animalogic 说:
    @anon

    The “Sweden” myth is definitely becoming tedious.
    In a (rough) comparison with Denmark, consumption in Swedish consumption is down 25% whereas Denmark’s is down 29% — at the cost of 4 times as many vivid deaths per capita as Denmark.
    Further, a recent study has suggested had the US closed its borders 2 weeks sooner it would have saved ? 10’s of thousands of lives.
    (I am absolutely flabbergasted that Britain has only recently sealed it’s borders & initiated a 14 day quarantine.)
    The core question the Mike Whitneys of the world need answer is this: back in February/march, & lacking a crystal ball, Trump has to ask himself — there is an election in November; if I do nothing, or very little how many infections/deaths will the US voting public tolerate? This not about real numbers, it’s about perceptions. Would the public accept 50,000, 100,000, 200,000, 500,000 & so on deaths? (And if we knew that number, would the public blame me, Donald Trump for them? (&, yes, he’s balancing that against the economics costs of the various scenarios. Especially the version where he does nothing & the economy 仍然 tanks). Trump had to act “in the dark” with only possibly dubious medical forcasts for assistance.
    Had the election been 2-3 years away he may have acted differently….
    As it is, he’s probably going to (& should) be blamed for both medical & economic outcomes. From Trump’s POV he must be thanking his god, mammon, that his opponent is that ridiculous old fool, Biden.
    Stalin would stand a good chance against Biden.

    • 同意: but an humble craftsman
  286. Anon[192]• 免责声明 说:

    A considerable number of first-hand accounts of drawn-out Covid-19 illnesses can be found at flashback.org, sort of a Swedish 4chan. Also, unemployment in Sweden is way up. Also, there are reports of considerable numbers of hospital staff having been infected. Also, neighboring countries are considering exempting Sweden from opening their borders. Are Swedes going to find themselves locked up and starving in a Covid-19 infected open-air prison? How long are they going to bear this before there will be public unrest?

    • 回复: @but an humble craftsman
  287. geokat62 说:

    摘录自 欧洲封锁实验的结果出来了:

    In Europe, roughly three groups of countries emerge in terms of fatalities. One group, including the U.K., the Netherlands and Spain, experienced extremely high excess mortality. Another, encompassing Sweden and Switzerland, suffered many more deaths than usual, but significantly less than the first group. Finally, there were countries where deaths remained within a normal range such as Greece and Germany.

    Yet the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/

    • 回复: @but an humble craftsman
  288. geokat62 说:

    The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models I The Coronavirus and Public Policy:

    描述:

    This Hillsdale College online symposium session features remarks by journalist and author Alex Berenson, followed by an interview with John J. Miller, director of the College’s Dow Journalism Program. It considers the failure of expert predictions and models related to the coronavirus crisis.

    View other symposium sessions: https:// symposium.hillsdale.edu.

  289. R2b 说:
    @U2GT

    Total death toll in Sweden this year, first quarter, is less than in 2018. Add to that the dubious appropriating of death cause, and you have NOTHING significant. These are facts. Go and look! SCB. What we have is news that people die. Big news. Didn’t we know that before?
    UTUbe, and FBook, are really curious figures, working for some it seems.
    A mediahyped quite normal influenza, has been used to aquire several purposes, and also killed people waiting for medical aid.
    The real virus is media, and those who use it.
    So according to figures, people die, and to use that, and our old, to a purpose, is a shame!

    • 同意: acementhead
  290. Incitatus 说:
    @glib

    Thanks Glib,

    Impressive list. It includes ‘LA County’, ‘Milan’, ‘Luxembourg,’ ‘Northern France’, Miami-Dade’, ‘SF (San Francisco) Study’, ‘French Study’, ‘Continuous Spanish Study’, ‘London HCW Screening’, ‘Czech Study’, ‘Slovenia Study’, ‘Idaho Study’, ‘Iranian Study’, ‘Ohio Prison Data’ (twice), ‘New York Study’, ‘Greek Repatriation Flights’, ‘Wuhan Hospital’, ‘Chelsea Data’, ‘Flu-like Surveillance’, ‘Pregnant Sample’, etc.

    Sweden is mentioned NR 2, 16, 23, 49. Four [4] of 60 listed.

    Whitney trumpets “Sweden Leads the Pack” in immunity. Does it? It has 32,809 cases (0.3223% population) and 3,925 deaths (0.0386% population). It also has a 322/100k case rate, a 38.6/100k death rate, and a 11.96% fatality rate for the few that catch it [22 May 2020 figures].

    Taiwan, a nation 2.3 times Sweden’s population, has 441 COVID-19 Cases, 7 Deaths [vs. Sweden’s 32,809 Cases and 3,925 Deaths].

    Who’s “Leading the Pack”?

  291. glib 说:

    don’t change the subject, Incitatus. Either a mortality rate of 10% in Sweden is absurd or it is not. I say it is absurd. Perhaps in a nursing home it is a realistic number, and even then, you need to inoculate it heavily.

  292. @Anon

    但是那里 is public unrest in sweden.

  293. @geokat62

    Yet the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above.

    Speediness of implementation may have played a role.

  294. Sweden isn’t winning. There are other countries that are more diseased and with a higher death rate even in Europe. However, it is interesting that Swedes use failure as a measure of success. [电子邮件保护]

  295. Herald 说:
    @karel

    I hope that Dumbo knows something about the accuracy of writing. Do you?

    Stunning riposte!

  296. geokat62 说:
    @utu

    ” let the dust settle a bit” – I will be there waiting for you.

    The dust is settling sooner than I thought.

    摘录自 挪威卫生部高级官员:我们本来可以控制冠状病毒而无需锁定:

    挪威的一名高级卫生官员表示,该国本来可以在没有封锁的情况下控制冠状病毒的爆发,并敦促该国不要再遇到第二波袭击时锁定它。

    挪威公共研究所所长卡米拉·斯托尔滕贝格(Camilla Stoltenberg)表示:“我们现在的评估……是,我们可以不锁定目标而是保持开放但采取感染控制措施,从而达到相同的效果,并避免一些不幸的影响。”据挪威地方卫生局称。

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/top-norway-health-official-we-could-have-controlled-coronavirus-without-a-lockdown

    • 回复: @Incitatus
    , @geokat62
  297. Incitatus 说:
    @geokat62

    棒呆!

    Geo, champion of full-time racial immigration embargo, cites Norway’s (5.2 million souls) liberal assessment COVID-19 lock-down might not have been necessary?

    Think I see a unicorn roaming asunder!

    保持良好的吉欧。

    • 回复: @geokat62
  298. geokat62 说:
    @Incitatus

    棒呆!

    I think you may be confusing an economic lockdown with border travel restrictions, Incy.

    Nothing amazing about being in favour of avoiding the former, while being in favour of implementing the latter.

    • 回复: @Adûnâi
  299. Sam 12123 说:

    Sweden’s death rate is far higher than the death rates in neighboring countries. Its’ economy has slowed at the same rate or faster. That doesn’t look like a success to me.

  300. Adûnâi 说:
    @geokat62

    > “I think you may be confusing an economic lockdown with border travel restrictions, Incy.”

    The two are one and the same. If the capitalist system holding the Aryan race hostage breaks down and falls apart, there will be no immigration. Do you value capitalism more than your race, geokat62?

    • 回复: @geokat62
  301. geokat62 说:
    @Adûnâi

    两者是一回事。

    Why can’t close our borders without implementing shelter-in-place?

    If the capitalist system holding the Aryan race hostage…

    It’s not the capitalist system that’s holding anyone hostage. It’s Jewish Supremacy.

    Do you value capitalism more than your race

    I’m a nationalist. I value the sanctity of homelands above all else.

    • 回复: @Adûnâi
  302. Adûnâi 说:
    @geokat62

    > “Why can’t close our borders without implementing shelter-in-place?”

    Because the whole raison d’être of the Western civilization is the extermination of order and beauty, and of the Aryan with them.

    > “It’s not the capitalist system that’s holding anyone hostage. It’s Jewish Supremacy.”

    Capitalism was only allowed by Christians. Christians were allowed because there is an integral death wish in the soul of the European.

    > “I’m a nationalist. I value the sanctity of homelands above all else.”

    You have no homeland if you love your race. Your homeland is your enemy. The religious worship the Jew on the cross, the secular worship the Jew in Auschwitz.

    顺便一提, a true racist supports open borders – open for war of extermination against non-Whites. But you might call me a troll for stating this much.

  303. karel 说:
    @but an humble craftsman

    I guess that you have some problems with satire. Try to sing ”mama mia”, it may cheer you up humble man.

  304. geokat62 说:
    @geokat62

    The dust is settling sooner than I thought.

    I wasn’t exaggerating!

    德国官方泄密报告谴责电晕是“全球性的误报”:

    Germany’s federal government and mainstream media are engaged in damage control after a report…

    https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf

    … that challenges the established Corona narrative leaked from the interior ministry.

    一些报告的关键段落是:
    * Covid-19的危险性被高估了:新病毒带来的危险可能从未超过正常水平。
    *死于电晕的人本质上是统计上今年将死的人,因为他们已经寿终正寝,虚弱的身体无法应对任何随机的日常压力(包括目前正在传播的约150种病毒)。
    *在全球范围内,在四分之一的一年之内,Covid-250,000造成的死亡人数不超过19,而在1.5/25,100流感浪潮中,则有2017万人死亡(德国为18)。
    *危险显然不超过许多其他病毒的危险。 没有证据表明这不仅仅是虚假的警报。
    * A reproach could go along these lines: During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.

    到目前为止,太糟糕了。 但情况会变得更糟。
    该报告重点关注“电晕措施的多重和严重后果”,并警告说这些是“严重的”。

    因国家实施的新冠病毒措施而死亡的人数多于死于该病毒的人数。

    原因是正在酝酿中的丑闻:
    以电晕为重点的德国医疗保健系统正在推迟挽救生命的手术,并推迟或减少对非电晕患者的治疗。

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

  305. Incitatus 说:

    “German Official Leaks Report Denouncing Corona as ‘A Global False Alarm’”

    Soylent Green!

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