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亚洲区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP):RCEP列车离开车站,印度落后
东盟最大的故事是向亚洲一体化迈进的融合,暂时将德里排除在外
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泛亚高速火车已将车站和印度抛在了身后。 尚未成为曼谷最大的自由贸易协议的区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)尚未在曼谷签署。 假设新德里超越东盟,其外交技巧几乎掩盖了挫败感,那么明年可能会在越南签署。 描述 表示为“尚未解决的悬而未决的问题”。

由16个国家(东盟10加上中国,日本,韩国,澳大利亚,新西兰和理论上印度)组成的伙伴关系将使3.56亿人和29%的世界贸易聚集在一起。

可以预见,它被认为是与政府有关的一系列高调会议中的大故事。 第35届东盟峰会 在泰国,随着RCEP实际上正在进一步将亚洲经济体与中国整合,就像特朗普政府正在针对从``一带一路''倡议到《中国制造2025》等一切问题进行全方位的斗争。

华语 外交部副部长乐玉成 太钝了:

“正是这15个国家决定先行一步。” 当越南接任东盟主席时,他补充说:“明年15个国家签署RCEP不会有任何问题。”

不难发现“问题”在哪里。

马哈蒂尔“失望”

外交官们证实,新德里在泰国提出了一系列的最后一刻要求,迫使许多人直到深夜都没有成功。 泰国商务部长 朱林·拉克萨纳维斯(Jurin Laksanawisit),尝试摆出勇敢的脸:

“昨晚的谈判是决定性的。”

不是。 马来西亚人 总理马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohammad) -他在全家福中的表情无价,因为他与左手昂山素姬握手,而右手则无人握手-已经 放弃游戏。

他说:“我们非常失望。一个国家正在提出我们无法接受的要求。”

东盟是点滴协议和面子保护的精致纪念碑,坚持认为“将在2020年20月之前解决”几个悬而未决的问题,而RCEP的所有XNUMX个章节的案文均已“待一个成员解决”。

RCEP遍布大片地区,涵盖商品和服务贸易,投资,知识产权和争端解决。 印度的“问题”极其复杂。 印度实际上已经与东盟达成了自由贸易协定。

实际上,RCEP会将这项协议扩展到其他大国,包括中国,日本和韩国。

新德里坚持认为,它捍卫着农民,乳制品业者,服务业,汽车业的各个部门,尤其是混合动力和电动汽车,以及非常受欢迎的三轮车,而且在全国范围内大多是小型企业,这将受到扩大后的打击。中国商品海啸。

印度的农业,纺织,钢铁和采矿业利益完全与RCEP背道而驰。

Yet New Delhi never mentions quality Japanese or South Korean products. It’s all about China. New Delhi argues that signing what is widely interpreted as a free trade agreement with China would explode its already significant US$57 billion a year trade deficit.

几乎没有掩饰的秘密是,正如历史记录所示,印度的经济本质上是贸易保护主义。 不可能取消保护农民的农业关税不会引发社会灾难。

莫迪并不是一个具有全球视野的大胆的政治家,他处在沉重的石头和非常艰难的地方之间。 习近平总统 在上一次非正式双边峰会上为他提供了中印伙伴关系的“ 100年计划”。

印度是金砖国家的成员,它是俄罗斯—印度—中国三国集团的一部分,实际上是金砖国家的中心,也是上海合作组织的成员。

从地缘政治和地缘经济角度而言,印度脱离RCEP几乎没有任何意义-这意味着将其排除在东亚和东南亚一体化之外。 唯一可行的解​​决方案可能是在RCEP内制定详尽的双边中印协议。

尚存在疑问的是,这两个参与者是否都能在2020年越南峰会之前解决这一问题。

把它放在一起

印度只是泰国山顶巨星故事的一部分。 在重要的东亚峰会上,每个人都在积极地探讨通向多边主义的多条道路。

特朗普政府正在吹捧所谓的“自由和开放的印度-太平洋战略”,这是又一个事实上的中国遏制战略,汇集了美国,印度,日本和澳大利亚。 莫迪(Indi-Pacific)十分重视Indo-Pacific。 问题是美国认为的“印度太平洋”,而RCEP是不兼容的。

相反,东盟提出了自己的战略:《东盟关于印度太平洋的展望》(AOIP),其中包括了所有通常的透明度,善政,可持续发展和基于规则的原则,以及有关连通性和海事纠纷的细节。

所有东盟十国都落后于AOIP,这实际上是印度尼西亚的原始想法。 令人惊讶的是,曼谷和雅加达秘密合作了不少于10个月,以期在东盟18国之间达成全面共识。

事实上,泰国最大的故事是无数走向亚洲一体化的融合。 中国人 李克强总理 慷慨地赞扬将“一带一路”与所谓的“东盟活动总体计划”相结合的前景,该计划是AOIP的连通性部分。

韩国的 月ae 赞扬他的《南方政策》的优点,这实质上是东北亚与东南亚的融合。 别忘了俄罗斯。

在东盟商业和投资峰会上,俄罗斯人 总理德米特里·梅德韦杰夫 全部放在一起; 大欧亚伙伴关系的蓬勃发展,使欧亚经济联盟,东盟和上海合作组织团结起来,用他的话说的是“一带一路”的“其他可能的结构”。

一带一路正在大力推进与RCEP,欧亚经济联盟乃至南美的南方共同市场的联系-巴西最终将贾尔·博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)赶下台后。

梅德韦杰夫指出,2016年在索契举行的俄罗斯-东盟峰会上一致支持这种利益合并。越南和新加坡已经与欧亚经济联盟达成自由贸易协定,柬埔寨,泰国,印度尼西亚也正在努力。

梅德韦杰夫还指出,中国与欧亚经济联盟于XNUMX月下旬签署了贸易和经济合作协议。 接下来是印度,该联盟与伊朗之间还签署了一项优惠贸易协定。

在泰国,中国代表团没有直接谈及美国的“自由和开放的印度太平洋战略”。 但是梅德韦杰夫坚决地做到了:

“我们赞成维持在东盟的基础上建立的有效的国与国之间关系体系,并在过去几年中表现良好。

“In this regard, we believe the US initiative is a serious challenge for ASEAN countries, since it can weaken the association’s position and strip it of its status as a key player in addressing regional security problems.”

Summits come and go. But what just happened in Thailand will remain as another graphic illustration of myriad, concerted moves leading towards progressive, irreversible Asia – and Eurasia – integration. It’s up to Modi to decide when and if to hop on the train.

(从重新发布 亚洲时报 经作者或代表的许可)
 
• 类别: 经济学, 对外政策 •标签: 中国, 印度, 新丝路, 俄罗斯 
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  1. Lin 说:

    First of all, I wouldn’t blame the Indians.
    一些基本事实:
    –Lots of daily household items,pots and pans… sold in india are imported from china. China nominal GDP is 5 times that of india and population is about 2-2.5% more. So india has ‘wage advantage’ and should be a power house in the lower segments of manufacture. Fact is indian wage is low but productivity is even lower.
    –Agriculturally, india has warm climate and good rainfall but again grain productivity is low. The funny thing I just read from a hindu nationalist site that because of their dharmic spiritual practice of not having factory farms.,India can’t compete with countries like Vietnam, Australia.
    –The educated hindu upper caste can do lower segment ‘service trade’ with English speaking countries because of the anglo colonial legacy and their low wage. Here they can compete.
    ............... ..
    The underlying reality:
    –Because of caste elitism, the big bulk of Indians are low ‘skilled’. If one can write his/her name in his/her native language, that person is classified as not illiterate.
    –East Asian countries jump-started their economy with labor intensive industry(like apparel making) then proceded to more advanced segments. The Indians have missed the boat(The last big boat departure was taken by china followed by 2 smaller boat departures taken up by Vietnam and Bangladesh) because the robots are taking over:
    https://www.wired.com/story/inside-speedfactory-adidas-robot-powered-sneaker-factory/
    (China is a developing country but yet push very hard on robotics.
    https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/robots-china-manufacturing
    IMO, if Vietnam and Bangladesh can pull their acts together, they could procede to the next phase. I wish them well)
    –Unemployment/underemployment is the BIGGEST problem in india. India govt grossly understates the numbers.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-unemployment-railways/more-than-25-million-people-apply-for-indian-railway-vacancies-idUSKBN1H524C
    ....
    Conclusion: Free trade is overall bad for India.

  2. Yee 说:

    India not joining RCEP is understandable. Neither its agriculture nor industry are competitive. Its only “advantage” is population.

    However, to turn this population “useful”, India’s low productive businesses need to die and replaced with more advance model of production. China went through this painful transformation with tens of million workers lost their jobs. Most things in this world have a price.

    India’s biggest illusion is seeing itself as rival of China, and hinge their hope on gaining favours from the US… Perhaps they’re being fooled by the official narrative that “American money build up China”, while in fact, 80% of foreign investments in China are from other Asian countries, and Europe has bigger investments in China than the US has.

    India competes with Southeast Asia. The sooner they know their place, the better they make policies. High in ambition but low in capability would only lead to failure.

    • 回复: @Showmethereal
    , @Lin
  3. Biff 说:

    The biggest story in Thailand was

    Bad traffic the dignitaries caused. Why is it they have to hob-knob in the ritziest hotels, while spending other peoples money? Because it’s other peoples money!

  4. @Yee

    Yes Chinese state companies laying off millions happened because China can do that. Politicians in India have to worry about elections…. And deadly riots!
    Correct also.. Very few US dollars comparatively built China. Manufacturing in China was serving US interests by producing at a lower cost to fatten corporate US profits – but the money invested was not American. People on this side of the globe dont get that.
    As to India competing with ASEAN… I have to look it up and calculate myself – but in spite of being less than half the population – ASEAN was recently said to have a bigger economy than India. So yeah India competing with China is nonsensical hubris.

  5. when Brazil finally kicks Jair Bolsonaro out of power.

    It’s not gonna happen.

  6. Lin 说:
    @Yee

    China went through this painful transformation with tens of million workers lost their jobs

    **Which industrial segments laid off their workers by the millions?
    **Over how many years or since when?
    ..........
    一些背景:
    –The only industries in china that laid off large number of workers I read were smoke stacks in N-E Chinese provinces
    Chinese steel industry(> 50% of world total) seems is still growing, though slowly. Sure it’ll eventually shrink to size after certain amount of stock has accumulated and then depend more on recycling, just like other industrialised nations.
    — And the number of young people joining the work force is decreasing because of decline in fertility rate. China is spending big on robotics.
    –Overall Chinese state owned factories are very careful to maintain employment.
    ............
    Pls link to some useful and valid data.

  7. nymom 说:

    India is complicated. They have so much potential but never quite seem to live up to it. Why this is, I am not really sure.

    There was an article about why India was destined not to be as successful as it should have been; but it has subsequently disappeared from the internet. Sadly I forgot what the reasons were the author cited.

    But I remember thinking at the time I read it that it was complicated and sad. I happen to love animals and I really really liked the thought of a nation that was mainly vegetarian.

    • 回复: @Lin
    , @Macon Richardson
  8. Lin 说:
    @nymom

    I must tell you vegetarianism is holocaust on the plant kingdom !!
    Do you believe a holy carrot has the same basic rights of a holy cow? If you do, one should eat more beef because a cow is the nutrient equivalent of 10s of 1000s of carots !! Eating a cow can save the lives of 10s of 1000s of carrots. Carrot Juice is murder !!

    Beware, one day a powerful walking super-sapien plant from outer space will descend on Earth and have all vegetarians roasted over slow fire !!

    • 回复: @nymom
  9. Yee 说:

    林,

    “Which industrial segments laid off their workers by the millions?
    **Over how many years or since when?”

    It’s called “下岗潮”, in the 90s.

    Close to 30 million workers lost their job. It’s not just some particular industry, but widespread in almost all industries.

  10. @nymom

    India is complicated. They have so much potential but never quite seem to live up to it. Why this is, I am not really sure.

    No, India is not at all complicated. It has little potential and fully lives up to that lack. Therefore, there is little reason for you to ponder the issue.

    • 同意: Change that Matters
    • 回复: @Lin
  11. Lin 说:
    @Macon Richardson

    It has little potential and fully lives up to that lack

    Seems ‘potential’ could be rhetorical.
    As I mentioned at other threads, india actually has lower popn density than Holland but the latter is the 2nd biggest food exporter in the world. IMO their main problems:
    –Caste elitism; consequence:
    ** the average Indians are poorly educated and have low skill
    –Excessive sense of insecurity with the following consequence:
    **Refuse to admit to obvious reality; and denial: Many hindus elite claim their over-population is actually ‘demographic dividends’.
    **Poor sense of prioritization of objectives, eg ignore basic manufacture but claim to be an I.T. powerhouse.
    .......................................。
    I actually support Hindutva. I posted the followings to response to an anti-Hindutva article:
    https://www.sabhlokcity.com/2019/10/my-next-centrepiece-toi-article-time-to-call-out-hindutva/
    ......

    Sanjeev Sabhlok先生。
    如何学习停止烦恼和爱Hindutva。
    .....
    是什么将一个国家捆绑在一起?
    可能是(广泛或宽松或多数)
    1)同种族
    2)相同的语言
    3)相同的宗教信仰
    4)具有相同的历史血统和命运感:
    ....
    印度的种族非常复杂,有16种“官方语言”(来自南部各州的印度议会议员坚持说我读的英语),并且有一定程度的南北敌意(据我所知,这种程度),印度的民族主义也就不足为奇了。已经发展成为印度民族主义。
    印度次大陆在莫卧儿之前的历史学方面表现不佳(我读过的第一个严肃的泛次大陆史学家是一位穆斯林学者和一位穆斯林征服者国王),并被穆斯林,然后是盎格鲁人征服。 现在,Hindutva可以实现以下目的:
    1)“重写”印度的“历史”,例如用“出印度”代替“雅利安人的入侵/迁移”。
    2)印度民族主义者需要敌人,现在他们可以责备强迫达利特人向穆斯林入侵者运送人类粪便的习俗。 其他例子比比皆是。
    3)通过使某些印度神话变成“官方”来提高印度自豪感,就像您提到的那样,大象神Ganesh是先进的古代印度科学的成果,将大象的头部移植到人体躯干上,或者古代印度拥有原子武器,汽车,飞机,航天器。
    现在,所构造的“历史”是否真实并不重要,只要大多数印度教徒相信它,它就有自己的生命。
    ............
    Sanjeev Sabhlok先生,您对我是一个理性的人感到钦佩,但我必须提醒您,Hindutva的替代方案是彻底改革印度文化,这几乎是不可能的,除非彻底革命。

  12. jaykayDX 说:

    You actually support Hindutva? You are misinformed. Hindutva is nothing but a scam fostered by Israel, the US and a few rich Hindus living outside India (mostly the UK) to fool the Indian people. The main goal of Hindutav is to brainwash the poor Hindu masses against Christians and Muslims and then to lead them to war against China. The other goal of Hindutva is to roll back on the social gains made by Rajiv Gandhi (who was assassinated in 1991 by a Tamil assassin – who was funded and trained by the Mossad) who introduced education for poor youth in computer and information technology to alleviate poverty and to improve living standards. I’ll tell you what they HAVE accomplished though: Uncontrollable rise in food prices, lowering of living standards, the destruction of the livelihoods of the Indian lower, middle and business class through de-monetization, (I myself lost my job through de-monetization and have yet tofind gainful employment despite my high standard of education – nobody is willing to hire me since there is NO BUSINESS WHATSOEVER), GST and VAT – all of which have contributed to the economy tanking – which was the plan in the first place. They (the current Indian ruling class – mostly rich Gujratis and Sindhis who pretend to be ‘patriotic’ while taking out huge loans from Indian Banks , then run away from India while enjoying life overseas leaving the general population to bail out the Banks and their bad loans!) want to de-volve India into a right-wing theocracy which will act as an anti-Chinese proxy for America, the UK and Israel in the Asian region. The ONLY reason the right-wing Hindutva parties won the last elections was through tampering of the EVMs – plus they also offered bribes to opposition party members to join them. They also have huge enemies in the South Indian part of India – the right-wing want to impose Hindi as the dominant language, which the South Indian oppose. Lately though there has been a huge pushback since the BJP’s enemies started using their own tricks against them – the BJP lost local elections due to the oppositon rigging the EVMs! Also several BJP members defected after they were offered ‘perks’ by the opposition! The dismal performance of the BJP on the economy is another primary factor for their recent losses – nobody cares about ‘hindu’ or ‘nationalistic’ pride when you don’t have a job or can’t afford to eat well, right?

    • 同意: Malla
  13. jaykayDX 说:

    What did you expect? Of course India was going to reject the offer – they are after all, America’s stooge and proxy in Asia – the current ruling class in India (predominantly from the Indian state of Gujrat, mostly upper caste North Indians) became rich when the British turned India into a rentier economy; They kept the general populance poor and illiterate with only a tiny merchant class who became rich by selling off India’s natural resources – most of them were Gujratis. They are the driving force behind the current right-wing administration and are trying to roll back the advancements former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi made in the ’80s and ’90s when he introduced computer education and improved the education, living standards and livelihoods of millions of poor Indians. See, the current ruling class are parasites: It makes NO SENSE for them to join with the rest of Asia in this RCEP trade deal since they can make greater profits by keeping Indian education and living standards poor and by selling off our natural resources at competitive prices. The poorer we are, the greater the profit. They can also paint China as a threat and scoop up nice bribes when negotiating arms deals with the US. The problem is this: They have too many enemies, both internal and external to accomplish their goals. Their main ally (The US) has a habit of betraying every third world nation it becomes an ally with – just ask Iraq for example. Plus most Hindus by their basic nature are corrupt and incompatent – NOT a great combination. All the Indian communities which are less corrupt and fairly competent are squarely against the right-wingers. Plus they don’t think long term and their dismal performance on the economy has shaken confidence in them. They only won the last election my manipulating the EVMs. And their policies of De-Monetization, VAT and GST has ruined the economy for the Indian business class – the right-wing’s primary supporters. Even if they survive, they will be weak – nobody can be manipulated by you if you cannot provide basic employment and three square meals to them. They may change their tune in the future; but will China want such problematic people as their partners?

  14. jaykayDX 说:

    “Modi, who is not exactly a bold statesman with a global vision, …”

    The author of the article is being waaaaay too kind to a mass murderer (who initiated a progrom against the Muslim population of Gujrat in 2002) and an illiterate tea stall worker like Modi – who only got into power because he is funded by the Banks and supported by the Zionist owned media …

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