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新的 经济走廊之战 现在正在全速前进,改变游戏规则的第一批货物通过国际南北运输走廊(INSTC)从俄罗斯到印度 已经生效.

在东方和西方,很少有人知道这实际上是如何形成的:俄罗斯-伊朗-印度协议通过里海(与苏伊士运河相比)实施一条更短、更便宜的欧亚贸易路线,于 2000 年首次签署,在 9/11 之前的时代。

全面运作模式的 INSTC 标志着欧亚一体化的强大标志——与“一带一路”倡议 (BRI)、上海合作组织 (SCO)、欧亚经济联盟 (EAEU) 以及最后但并非最不重要的一点是,我所说的“流水线“二十年前。

里海是关键

让我们先看看这些向量是如何相互作用的。

当前加速的根源在于俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京最近访问土库曼斯坦首都阿什哈巴德,为 6th 里海峰会。 这一事件不仅将不断发展的俄伊战略伙伴关系推向了更深层次,而且至关重要的是,所有五个里海沿岸国都同意: 没有 北约军舰或基地将被允许在现场。

这基本上将里海配置为一个虚拟的俄罗斯湖,在较小的意义上,伊朗湖——同时不损害阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦这三个“斯坦”的利益。 出于所有实际目的,莫斯科已将其对中亚的控制收紧了一个档次。

由于里海通过前苏联在伏尔加河沿岸修建的运河与黑海相连,莫斯科总是可以依靠一支由小型船只组成的后备海军——总是配备强大的导弹——可能很快就会被转移到黑海如有必要。

现在,与伊朗加强贸易和金融联系的同时将三个“斯坦”与俄罗斯矩阵结合起来。 天然气资源丰富的共和国土库曼斯坦在历史上一直很特殊——除了将大部分出口承诺给中国。

在可以说是更加务实的年轻新领导人塞尔达尔·贝迪穆哈梅多总统的领导下,阿什哈巴德最终可能会选择成为上合组织和/或欧亚经济联盟的成员。

另一方面,里海沿岸国阿塞拜疆提出了一个复杂的案例:一家石油和天然气生产商被欧盟 (EU) 视为俄罗斯的替代能源供应商——尽管这不会很快发生。

连接西亚

易卜拉欣·赖西总统领导下的伊朗外交政策显然处于欧亚和全球南方的轨道上。 德黑兰将在即将于 XNUMX 月在撒马尔罕举行的峰会上作为正式成员正式加入上合组织,同时正式申请加入上合组织。 金砖五国 已提交。

金砖国家国际论坛负责人普尼玛·阿南德(Purnima Anand) 土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和埃及也非常热衷于加入金砖国家。 如果发生这种情况,到 2024 年,我们将踏上通往强大的西亚、北非枢纽的道路,该枢纽牢固地安装在多极世界的关键机构之一内。

As 普京前往德黑兰 下周俄罗斯、伊朗、土耳其三边会谈,表面上是关于叙利亚的,土耳其总统埃尔多安势必会提出金砖国家的话题。

德黑兰在两个平行向量上运行。 如果重新启动联合全面行动计划(JCPOA)——考虑到最新的 有心计 在维也纳和多哈——这将代表一场战术上的胜利。 然而,走向欧亚大陆是一个全新的 战略 水平。

在 INSTC 框架下,伊朗将最大限度地利用具有地缘战略意义的阿巴斯港——横跨波斯湾和阿曼湾,位于亚洲、非洲和印度次大陆的十字路口。

然而,尽管它可能被描绘成一次重大的外交胜利,但很明显,如果西方——尤其是美国——的制裁没有完全解除,德黑兰将无法充分利用金砖国家的成员资格。

管道和“stans”

可以提出一个令人信服的论点,即俄罗斯和中国最终可能会填补西方在伊朗发展过程中的技术空白。 但 INSTC、EAEU 甚至 BRICS 等平台可以完成的工作还有很多。

在“管道斯坦”,经济走廊之战变得更加复杂。 西方宣传根本无法承认阿塞拜疆、阿尔及利亚、利比亚、俄罗斯在欧佩克的盟友,甚至哈萨克斯坦并不完全热衷于增加石油产量以提供帮助 欧洲.

哈萨克斯坦是一个棘手的案例:它是中亚最大的石油生产国,并将成为仅次于俄罗斯和土库曼斯坦的主要天然气供应国。 250家公司在哈萨克斯坦经营着104多个油气田,其中包括雪佛龙、道达尔、埃克森美孚和荷兰皇家壳牌等西方能源巨头。

虽然石油、天然气和石油产品的出口占哈萨克斯坦出口的 57%,但天然气占土库曼斯坦预算的 85%(其中 80% 的出口致力于中国)。 有趣的是,Galkynysh 是地球上第二大气田。

与其他“斯坦”相比,阿塞拜疆是一个相对较小的生产国(尽管石油占其总出口的 86%)并且基本上是一个过境国。 巴库的超级财富愿望集中在南部天然气走廊,其中包括不少于三个管道:巴库-第比利斯-埃尔祖鲁姆 (BTE); 土耳其驱动的跨安纳托利亚天然气管道(TANAP); 和跨亚得里亚海 (TAP)。

这个首字母缩略词——BTE、TANAP、TAP——的问题在于,它们都需要大量的外国投资来增加产能,而欧盟非常缺乏这种能力,因为每一欧元都是由非选举产生的布鲁塞尔欧洲官员承诺“支持”乌克兰这个黑洞. 同样的财务困境适用于可能的跨里海管道,该管道将进一步连接到 TANAP 和 TAP。

立即订购

在“经济走廊之战”——“管道斯坦”一章——一个关键方面是,大部分哈萨克斯坦向欧盟出口的石油都是通过里海管道联盟 (CPC) 经由俄罗斯出口的。 作为替代方案,欧洲人正在考虑一条仍然模糊的跨里海国际运输路线,也称为中间走廊(哈萨克斯坦-土库曼斯坦-阿塞拜疆-格鲁吉亚-土耳其)。 他们上个月在布鲁塞尔积极讨论了这个问题。

归根结底,俄罗斯仍然完全控制着欧亚管道棋盘(我们甚至没有谈论俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司运营的通往中国的西伯利亚 1 号和 2 号管道)。

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的高管非常清楚,快速增加对欧盟的能源出口是不可能的。 他们还考虑了德黑兰公约——该公约有助于预防和控制污染并维护里海的环境完整性,由所有五个沿岸成员签署。

在俄罗斯打破 BRI

就中国而言,它相信其主要的战略噩梦之一最终可能会消失。 臭名昭著的“逃离马六甲”必将与俄罗斯合作,通过北海航线实现,这将使东亚到北欧的贸易和互联互通走廊从11,200海里缩短到仅6,500海里。 将其称为 INSTC 的极地双胞胎。

这也解释了为什么俄罗斯一直忙于建造大量最先进的破冰船。

所以在这里,我们有一个互连的新丝绸之路(INSTC 与 BRI 和 EAEU 并行进行)、Pipelineistan 和北海航线,正在彻底颠覆西方的贸易统治。

当然,中国人已经计划了很长时间。 2018 年 XNUMX 月发布的第一份关于中国北极政策的白皮书已经表明,北京正致力于“与其他国家(即俄罗斯)共同”在极地丝绸之路框架内实施北极海上贸易路线。

就像发条一样,普京随后确认北方航道应该与中国海上丝绸之路互动和补充。

俄中经济合作在如此复杂、趋同的层面上不断发展,仅仅跟踪这一切就是令人眼花缭乱的经历。

更详细的分析将揭示一些更精细的点,例如“一带一路”和上合组织如何互动,以及“一带一路”项目将如何适应莫斯科在乌克兰的 Z 行动的严重后果,并更加重视发展中亚和西亚走廊。

考虑到华盛顿在对俄罗斯的无情混合战争中的关键战略目标之一始终是打破纵横交错的俄罗斯领土的“一带一路”走廊,这一点始终至关重要。

就目前而言,重要的是要认识到,工业和投资以及跨境跨区域合作的数十个“一带一路”项目最终将巩固俄罗斯的“大欧亚伙伴关系”概念——其实质是围绕与广泛的多边合作建立多边合作。属于欧亚经济联盟、上合组织、金砖国家和东盟等组织的国家。

欢迎来到新的欧亚口号:打造经济走廊,而不是战争。

(从重新发布 摇篮 经作者或代表的许可)
 
隐藏71条评论发表评论
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  1. Cookie 说:

    我们在这里有很多关于“基于规则的顺序”的文章,这是一篇试图解释它是什么的文章。

    并且来自通常不发布此类tboughts的来源。

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-17/joe-biden-upholding-rules-based-order-shaking-hands-with-killers/101242386

    • 回复: @Doug Ryler
  2. Notsofast 说:

    普京和习近平在西部打球的方式令人震惊。 通过他们对中国和俄罗斯的愚蠢的非法制裁,西方列强就像一些可怜的 schulb,抓住了 440v 的电源线,放不下。 一旦变压器把可怜的 schlub 炸成一堆闷烧的垃圾邮件。

    • 同意: Realist
    • 回复: @showmethereal
  3. @Notsofast

    同样没有注意到的是正在中国与吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克人之间建造的新火车走廊……这是“一带一路”与欧亚经济联盟的进一步联系以及上合组织的进一步整合。 这就是为什么我们现在在“斯坦”中看到颜色革命的尝试……。 但在上合组织和集体安全条约组织之间——它们运作得不太好。

    • 回复: @JR Foley
  4. picture111 说:

    佩佩一如既往的优秀文章,非常感谢!

    • 同意: JR Foley
  5. 一些地图在这里会有所帮助。

    • 同意: Levtraro
  6. 与此同时,乔·拜登在以色列四处走动,承诺美国“保卫”以色列免受它为自己和美国制造的所有敌人……

    无视伊朗的石油供应,挑战它,限制它,制裁它,这一切都是为了让以色列满意。

    与此同时,以色列正在利用偷来的戈兰高地石油和天然气,现在专注于海上石油,当然,无情地将巴勒斯坦和其他国家赶出去。

    为了安抚这个种族主义、种族灭绝、恐怖主义行为的国家,美国付出的代价比任何时候都多。

    盲目的基督教原教旨主义者,而不是原教旨主义者,已经承诺了一种犹太人的意识形态,这种意识形态充其量认为他们是愚蠢的,被使用的仆人是显而易见的,以至于被这一切蒙蔽了。

    美国从以色列得到什么? 奴役。 就这样。

  7. 看起来金砖四国已经提出了一个双赢计划,通过建设陆地和海上航线,为自己和邻国创造更光明的未来,结果却被嫉妒的美国/欧盟/英国 (USUK) 恐吓和​​威胁到无休止的战争和贸易禁运他们认为通过让北约军队在金砖四国挥舞彩虹旗,并以乌克兰为例说明如果他们开始行为不端将会发生什么,他们已经锁定了整个全球贸易走廊。 (肛门拍打屁股)。
    整个乌克兰的游戏对全球西方大国来说变得比以往任何时候都更加尴尬。 当通往所有人的和平与繁荣的道路都写在星星上时,谁会发动全球战争。

    • 同意: GMC
    • 回复: @Decoy
    , @Showmethereal
  8. GMC 说:

    太有趣了,当中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、斯坦斯和其他国家忙于规划贸易路线、协议和未来的商业投资时,美国及其盟国正计划向他们的代理恐怖组织发送更多武器,围捕所有人口,并看起来他们完全不知道该怎么做才能保持他们的世界——漂浮。 我认为,如果中东、拉丁美洲、非洲和其他人看不到该跳哪一列火车——他们应该和西方傻瓜一起下山。

  9. 然而,尽管它可能被描绘成一次重大的外交胜利,但很明显,如果西方——尤其是美国——的制裁没有完全解除,德黑兰将无法充分利用金砖国家的成员资格。

    我不确定金砖国家会取得什么成就,即使成员扩大,如果不通过在成员国之间建立可行的贸易集团来建立美元霸权的替代方案,中和或逃避美国及其走狗实施的制裁。

    Escobar 的另一篇优秀且内容丰富的作品。 让他们来佩佩!

  10. 国际贸易路线和“自由贸易”区令人着迷的发展——但最终它与真正自由和繁荣所需的解决方案几乎无关。

    强迫世界各国接受全球主义、社会主义、过度专业化、“自由贸易”政策以及对进口商品和资源的依赖,谁会从中受益?

    谁为“自由贸易”买单?

    所有国家都应该努力实现自力更生。

    瑞士联邦是 700 年来世界上最成功的民主共和国——直到 1970 年代瑞士男子犯了一个可怕的错误,即在没有民兵责任的情况下授予瑞士妇女完全的投票权。

    废除联合国。

    消灭中共。

    驱逐欧盟-欧洲央行。

    逮捕 WZO。

    • 回复: @Sam Smith
  11. 中国不应该考虑通过任何极地路线或任何其他“一带一路”将自己与北欧隔绝吗? 整个世界都愿意进行贸易,需要成品消费品并提供自然资源作为回报,最重要的是,不对贸易伙伴施加任何条件,更不用说制裁他们了。 西方是时候让其他人最大限度地制裁西方了,他们制裁别人的人足够多,让他们感受到制裁的全部力量:经济、文化、体育、科学等等,由世界其他地方指导,他们的长期受害者。

    • 同意: Realist
    • 回复: @Almost Missouri
  12. 三州城——三州城 https://www.facebook.com/tristatecity/

    为什么荷兰农民抗议? 因为绿色政策让他们生活困难?

    是的,这也是,但它的背后不仅仅是环境或气候保护。 这是关于一个巨大的商业项目,几乎总是戴上绿色面具,只是为了伪装。

    农民们在路上,因为一个名为 TRISTATE CITY 的大型项目需要一些区域。 一个大都市——一个城邦——正在规划中,它将把鲁尔区、荷兰和比利时联合起来。 https://www.vno-ncw.nl/forum/%E2%80%98nederland-waar-ligt-dat%E2%80%99

    荷兰的一组机构投资者联手将荷兰以及比利时和德国的部分地区展示为一个名为 Tristate City 的单一城市网络。

    该项目由荷兰雇主协会 VNO-NCW 支持,将 30 万人口的地区设想为“可持续城市强国”。 该项目的支持者包括房地产开发商和养老基金,以及乌得勒支经济局。

    该组织认为,荷兰城市太小,无法参与所谓的“城市之战”,即大城市争夺投资和人才。

    该项目的支持者认为,将荷兰视为拥有 17 万居民的城市化三角洲,可以在这场“巨人之战”中扮演一个非常强大的角色。 https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2017/10/dutch-investors-launch-new-marketing-programme-for-nl-tristate-city/

    再一次,这是十亿美元交易的问题,任何打扰他们的事情都必须离开。 农业是土地经济,新项目的巨大需求需要土地。 如此一来,就将农民推入破产境地,但未必能说得这么大声。 所以一个人在它面前切换虚伪的自然爱情,可以同时为每一个烂摊子咨询的面具。

    在接受 NVP 组织者兼主席 Bart-Jan Oplaat 采访时,他表达了对农民未来的担忧。 在其中,他还提到了三州城市,这是一项新型超级城市的计划,荷兰、布鲁塞尔、安特卫普和鲁尔地区将联手成为欧洲的新首都。

    加起来,大约 40 万人将不得不住在那里,而农民将没有空间。 这只有通过农民放弃他们的土地来建造这数百万额外居民的堡垒才有可能。 https://indepen.nl/is-tristate-city-de-reden-van-onteigening-van-de-boeren/

    该项目已经在各种网站上受到批评。

    一个城市国家,土地是城市的能源种植园,并为税务牛、荷兰公司的人力资源、皇家寡头 BV 建造“可持续”、密集绝缘住房(“防巴黎”)的土地. 没有自由放养的住房。

    在无尽的密集绝缘住房营房,“可持续”的巴黎房屋,没有通风可能性的不健康的头痛房屋,新建的圩田,纳税人/又名荷兰皇家寡头集团的人力资源和邮政编码彩票的八卦牛然后以玛门的名义挤奶吸干。

    唯一的目标是:在尽可能短的时间内为贪财的 UBO(荷兰皇家寡头集团 Nederland BV 的老板)获得最大的每平方米利润。

    他们越说“绿色”这个词,你就越能看到真正的绿色正在腐烂,每年都被砍伐和建造。 这是因为破坏自然(例如生物质的树木)和建设“绿色”项目都可以赚钱。 金钱是皇家寡头荷兰公司的中心分母。

    奇怪的是,关于农民抗议的报道总是提到新的氮限制,这迫使农民关闭他们的生意。 但这肯定又只是纯粹的巧合。

  13. Levtraro 说:
    @GMC

    中国、俄罗斯、斯坦斯和其他国家有现实的、务实的、以商业为导向的国家人民,而我们西方有狂热的理论家和野心勃勃的平庸者,他们愿意破坏经济、监禁和沉默真正的记者、进口低素质的移民和让儿童接触性退化,以传播适应不良的特征。 因此,领导层存在一些差异。

    • 回复: @GMC
    , @Brian Damage
  14. anonymous[377]• 免责声明 说:

    佩佩·埃斯科巴(Pepe Escobar)为中国-俄罗斯-伊朗等欧亚斯坦世界的精彩伟大项目而几乎可笑地预测的拉拉拉拉队似乎有点不对劲……当然,西方值得严厉批评

    对于生活在欧亚斯坦大部分地区的许多人来说,这仍然不是那么好,而且还不清楚这些项目是否真的会成功……就在几年前,现在正在崩溃的斯里兰卡认为他们很快就会变得富有,他们的新“倡议”,中国也参与其中

    一个反向的 Pepe Escobar 可以浏览欧盟网站,并提出一个类似的清单,其中列出了正在进行的各种美妙的协同创造国际西方项目,据称很快就会给欧洲带来巨大的额外繁荣和增长……但给出一个错误是错误的对所有的吹嘘太多了

    总有一个新的“五年计划”承诺是光荣的

    • 同意: Philip Owen
  15. Wokechoke 说:

    将里海用于此类目的可能是绝妙的一招。

  16. Anonymous[178]• 免责声明 说:

    正如我在乌克兰/俄罗斯冲突以俄罗斯入侵开始时发回的那样,欧洲需要俄罗斯的资源。 德国将带头成功地将美国逐出欧洲,并与俄罗斯形成某种融合,形成欧亚大陆的核心。
    美国将退回AUKUS,成为大洋联盟的领导者; 它将把南美洲从中国手中夺回。
    中国将统治其整个地区,就像它几千年来一直存在的那样,但无法越过第一岛链。
    欧亚大陆将包括伊拉克、伊朗,但不包括印度,印度将保持独立。
    目前,非洲(撒哈拉以南地区)投资甚至入侵都没有回报,将任其自生自灭。 非洲将因此经历人口崩溃。

    新边界比目前的边界更具有经济意义,并为各个地区(撒哈拉以南非洲除外)提供了扭转人口下滑的机会。

    • 回复: @Brian Damage
    , @Micky914
  17. JR Foley 说:
    @anonymous

    今年冬天,当加拿大天然气抵达美国船只时,德国的情况将升温。

  18. 好吧,怪不得林登·拉鲁什,因为正是他和他的妻子赫尔加·泽普-拉鲁什通过席勒研究所提出了“新丝绸之路”和“一带一路”大陆桥的构想,以及金砖国家的构想作为 1990 年代的“幸存者俱乐部”。

    请注意,普京的长期经济顾问谢尔盖·格拉齐耶夫(Sergei Glazyev)现在正在实施基于一篮子商品的新货币,美国在 1942-52 年间根据 Parity 7 USC Sec 602 在许多席勒研究所会议上发表讲话。

  19. Wokechoke 说:
    @anonymous

    一条穿过伊朗的运河的想法既迷人又天上掉馅饼。 如何保持湿润是个大问题。

  20. Realist 说:
    @michael severson

    与此同时,以色列正在利用偷来的戈兰高地石油和天然气,现在专注于海上石油,当然,无情地将巴勒斯坦和其他国家赶出去。

    正如该博客上的许多人所说,俄罗斯应该向叙利亚提供必要的武器和顾问,以夺回目前在美国控制下的戈兰高地和叙利亚部分地区。

    盲目的基督教原教旨主义者,而不是原教旨主义者,已经承诺了一种犹太人的意识形态,这种意识形态充其量认为他们是愚蠢的,被使用的仆人是显而易见的,以至于被这一切蒙蔽了。

    是的,他们确实很愚蠢。

  21. @anonymous

    斯里兰卡人没收了一架俄罗斯飞机以遵守制裁。 他们的法庭很快下令将其归还……但是……

  22. Realist 说:
    @anonymous

    总有一个新的“五年计划”承诺是光荣的

    与西方相比……诺言是信守的。

  23. @A European Visitor

    人类的未来是除了精英之外的每个人都生活在蜂巢大都市中,我们一无所有,并且乐于为我们的霸王变装皇后制作蜂蜜(((金钱)))。

    • 回复: @Notsofast
  24. GMC 说:
    @Levtraro

    我同意,你提到的这些国家,确保他们的领导人,无论是在联邦层面还是在州长类型的层面,都接受过管理一个成功国家的教育,而政治是后来出现的。 美国和欧盟在领导力课上都失败了,我们可以看到瑞典和芬兰加入北约。 我想,女性领导人和男性领导人一样容易腐败。 我们看到,随着瑞典/芬兰的加入,北约正在采取行动阻止俄罗斯和中国将在不久的将来更多地使用,或者至少他们认为会使用的北极贸易路线。 如果那时北约还没有被绝育,那么这场冲突也应该很有趣。

    在西方智囊团中,所有这些数百甚至数千名所谓的受过教育的人,但没有人能提出比侵略、勒索、欺凌、破坏、制裁、暗杀、入侵等更好的计划。想象一下如何数十亿美元花在教育上——一无所获。

  25. @Levtraro

    狂热的理论家和野心勃勃的平庸

    确切地。 狂热的理论家和野心勃勃的平庸者完善了同性恋激进主义的受害者策略,而后者又被美国黑人民权斗争所吸收,以推动、推动国际社会的喉咙,这是一个充满自我的议程- 服务于对自己和世界其他地方没有好处的短期短视目标。

  26. 显然,乌克兰是一个犹太人控制的傀儡,不需要辩论或质疑任何人都可以清楚地看到它,他们甚至在泽连斯基也有自己的一个领导这个国家,但俄罗斯呢? 俄罗斯似乎在假装是民族主义者和亲白人,同时禁止任何形式的右翼反对党加入统一俄罗斯,这似乎是在搅浑水。 同样是普京的斯文加利人,杜金似乎是一个阴险的反白人角色,他声称自己更喜欢黑人而不是白人,他说“黑人是欧亚人”,同时攻击欧洲的“种族主义”和民族主义,并将乌克兰的亚速人与西欧人进行比较。反对移民、伊斯兰教和 LGBT 的人并不完全是所谓的保守党会说的那种话。 杜金的欧亚主义还要求一种欧亚混血种族,正如杜金所说的非洲人是欧亚人一样,黑人也将包括在内。 这与 Coudenhove-Kalergi 有何不同? 俄罗斯人真的是全球主义者装扮成民族主义者和反全球主义者吗?

  27. Decoy 说:
    @CelestiaQuesta

    #7:“整个乌克兰的游戏正在成为全球西方大国的尴尬”。 当然应该是,但我不认为他们处于那个阶段。 在我看来,两件事中的一件将结束战争。
    1.乌克兰没有愿意成为美国和北约炮灰的人。
    2. 欧洲不断恶化的金融状况将导致足够多的政府被推翻,以至于资金停止流向乌克兰。 北约和美国都愿意靠自己维持十年。 他们对俄罗斯的仇恨是如此之大。
    与此同时,中国不断在世界各地建设公路、港口和铁路。 西方的结局并不好。

  28. Sam Smith 说:
    @Jon Chance

    你是个白痴! 是中共不是中共!

    只有政府对其公民负责的国家才会发生这种情况:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPGwHozFYJs (你的惊人建筑在哪里?!?)

    正如邓小平曾经说过的那句名言:“猫是白的还是黑的,只要能抓到老鼠就行!”

    社会主义,资本主义,共产主义,民主。 . . 给我看看牛肉!

    “真正的自由和繁荣”,我的脚!

  29. Notsofast 说:
    @CelestiaQuesta

    就在昨天,我还在想,大多数人都希望生活在混凝土白蚁丘中,这是一件好事。 如果我们能开发出哥斯拉大小的巨型穿山甲来帮助控制人口,这可能就是拯救这个可怜星球的方法。

    • 回复: @Herald
    , @SafeNow
  30. 我想知道荷兰人怎么想还给一个匿名的“纳粹侵略者”的身份? 在“多种族同胞”的包围下,他们是否同时改变了想法,从“宽容”的幻想小说中解脱出来? 这将是朝着雅利安兄弟情谊迈出的惊人一步! https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/07/german-fighter-pilot-identified-after-79-years-from-dna-on-envelope/

    • 回复: @Some good news
  31. @Anonymous

    正如我在乌克兰/俄罗斯冲突以俄罗斯入侵开始时发回的那样,欧洲需要俄罗斯的资源。 德国将带头成功地将美国逐出欧洲,并与俄罗斯形成某种融合,形成欧亚大陆的核心。
    美国将退回AUKUS,成为大洋联盟的领导者; 它将把南美洲从中国手中夺回。
    中国将统治其整个地区,就像它几千年来一直存在的那样,但无法越过第一岛链。

    AUKUS 可能会在短短几年内成为 UKUS。 澳大利亚不能继续在军事上与美国结盟,而不会对本国经济产生任何影响。 从地理上看,它不在大西洋,它需要与亚洲邻国合作才能生存。 10年后,中国将拥有超越第一岛链的能力项目,但不会这样做,但同时会继续在该地区遏制美国。 澳大利亚不能为了自己的生存而不与中国接触。

    欧亚大陆将包括伊拉克、伊朗,但不包括印度,印度将保持独立。
    目前,非洲(撒哈拉以南地区)投资甚至入侵都没有回报,将任其自生自灭。 非洲将因此经历人口崩溃。

    印度可能会分裂成其前英国的国家。 非洲将继续保持高出生率,并将继续迁移到欧洲。

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  32. @Some good news

    “解放者”是旨在谋杀德国平民的美国地毯式轰炸机之一的名字。 问题是谁在这里被“解放”? (大概是德国的人口。还有犹太人无所不能的行动自由。)只有一个是确定的:白人肯定不是! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consolidated_B-24_Liberator

  33. Herald 说:
    @Notsofast

    …如果我们只能开发出哥斯拉大小的巨型穿山甲来帮助控制人口

    当然它已经被开发出来了,大多数人都非常渴望获得多剂量的巨型穿山甲汁。

    • 回复: @Notsofast
  34. @michael severson

    美国军队是以色列的外籍军团。

  35. 洗钱战争

  36. 哎呀,我们都会死的……

    全球全面崩溃已经到来,斯里兰卡只是第一个倒下的。 相应地准备。



    视频链接

  37. fran 说:
    @anonymous

    斯里兰卡因国家实施的“绿色”倡议而崩溃,压垮了他们的农业产出。 世界经济论坛的邪教徒及其荒谬的政策摧毁了那个国家。

    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  38. Odyssey 说:

    在边缘,很高兴知道…

    最近在卫报上讨论了 STAN 的含义,但收效甚微。 一个版本是它来自 Town >...>...> Stan。 我们有阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度斯坦、拉贾斯坦邦、哈萨克斯坦、库尔德斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等。

    几乎很明显,它有梵文起源,这意味着它来自古老的塞尔维亚语。 此外,STAN 在现代塞尔维亚语中也是一个常用词。 意思是——“生活的地方”。 例如,“gde STANujes?” 意思是,“你住在哪里?” 它现在用于公寓/公寓/单元的含义。 例如,常用作:我住在两居室的STAN,我在阿什哈巴德租了一个STAN,我买了一个面向漂亮公园的STAN,政府为公务员建造了2个STAN,等等。有时它有相同的意思是“房子”或“家”,但并非总是如此。 不是每个 Stan 都是一个家,您可能有几个 STAN,您可能会或可能不会觉得它是您的家。

    STAN 衍生出数百个单词。 例如,STAN-iste 表示栖息地,即不仅适用于人类,也适用于植物和动物。

    因此,阿富汗的意思是——阿富汗人(印度教徒、库尔德人、哈萨克人等)居住的地方。

    塞尔维亚语“stan”的意思是——“停止”。 它可能出现在远古时代,当时正在移动的游牧民族在某个时刻停下来定居在某个地方,使那里成为他们的“斯坦”。 还有许多包含“stan”的个人姓名/姓氏(Stanislav、Stanko、Stankovic 等)。

  39. 住在离墨西哥 120 英里的地方,世界第十大经济体的土地面积比美国还大,不包括阿拉斯加,而且人口众多,这总是让我着迷。 他们不参与有关旧欧洲或其他地方的战略制定。 然而,我们是……越南、伊拉克、以色列、伊朗、乌克兰和其他地方。 华盛顿会停下来吗?

    • 回复: @Anon
  40. Anon[716]• 免责声明 说:
    @Reverend Goody

    墨西哥比美国大?

    阿拉斯加 =1717856 公里^2
    美国 - 9,833,517
    墨西哥——1,964,375

    美国为 R2P 哭泣,但允许在学校杀害孩子,有 400 名警察等待神圣信号追捕射手 - 1 名射手。

  41. JR Foley 说:
    @showmethereal

    Amtrak 7 号列车现在准时到达——但晚了 3 天——与加拿大的 Via Rail 相媲美(我从 Tranna 到 Elkton 的旅行——前段时间)并晚了 1 天——最后一部分在 Elks City 外坐了 5 小时没有人可以找到工作人员的解释!

  42. SafeNow 说:
    @Notsofast

    就在昨天,我还在想,大多数人都希望生活在混凝土白蚁丘中,这是一件好事。

    我记得大约六个月前,普京和他的国防部长绍伊古(包括普通话和日语在内的 9 种语言)在西伯利亚度假,并颁布了建设五个新城市的计划,每个城市都有 XNUMX 万人口。 有人说谁会住在西伯利亚,但我认为有很多人住在俄罗斯(或中国)公寓楼里,他们很乐意离开白蚁丘,买一些长内衣,然后搬家。 我认为他们说一百万真的很聪明
    因为这样你就可以得到医院、学校、商场等等。

    • 同意: Notsofast
  43. @CelestiaQuesta

    And now they are trying to use Japan and the DPP to be their “Ukraine” in Asia. NATO now is poking its nose on the other side of the globe. Australia is simply an extension of US/UK as a part of 5 Eyes.

    NATO is not embarrassed… They are doubling down. You have to remember most people are sheep and will go along with what mass media tells them (their are some people who think VICE news is alternative- but they have no clue who owns it). People who can discern fake news are in the minority

  44. Notsofast 说:
    @Herald

    exactly! now all we have to do is wait for the mutation to run its full course….i wonder if i could get some japanese film company interested in the rights,

    pangzilla 2023

    scene one: shinzo abe tries desperately to warn the world of the effects of vaccine……

  45. Micky914 说:
    @Anonymous

    I don’t agree that the war in Ukraine started with the Russian invasion.

  46. @Commentator Mike

    It’s time for the West to get sanctioned to the max by everyone else,

    Funny thing about the incompetents currently running the West: they are effectively sanctioning themselves, cutting themselves off from affordable energy and food.

  47. Anonymous[133]• 免责声明 说:
    @Brian Damage

    Some say China is in serious trouble. You should listen to these.

    With Europe and the US preoccupied by internal trouble, the Africans are going nowhere.

    Taking McDonald’s article [1] seriously, what I see happening is a reversion to the Warrior aristocratic egalitarianism. The “Protestant democratic egalitarianism” that ended slavery has terminated with the former slaves enslaving the former masters, but proving incompetent on keeping everybody fed, clothed, and housed. Not my idea of fun, nor many others idea of fun, either, and Calhoun’s theoretical basis (which include McDonald’s “aristocratic egalitarianism” as a component.
    How can I be that insensitive? Well, most of my family and friends have been destroyed/killed by the current system, and all it got was cheers from the crowd. After that, the temptation to dismiss the crowd as peasants is overwhelming. And I’m a lot more typical in this respect that I’d like to be.
    ************************************************** ***************

  48. vox4non 说:
    @Anonymous

    I wouldn’t put too much stock in them. There has been a cottage industry since the 2000s, with Gordon Chang being a key cheerleader in crowing about the fall of China. China may experience a slowdown but unlikely to collapse soon.

    Too many have an outside-in look with little understanding of the workings of the society over there. In addition, I find China to be like a Rorschach projective test – it reveals more about the person making the judgement than the picture itself.

    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  49. @vox4non

    Western hatred of China is pure racism, even worse in mixed race specimens like Chang who clearly despise their Oriental heritage, and know that their Western paymasters just love a race and cultural renegade and traitor, just as slave-owners loved and valued their ‘House Negroes’ and overseers.

  50. @fran

    What is it with the cultic hatred of everything ‘green’? Have you actually noticed the global ecological collapse currently accelerating? Do you think that industrialised, fossil-fuel based, agriculture can go on forever? How do you think the Sri Lankans fed themselves in the past? Not with agrichemicals and fossil-fuel based ‘fertilisers’ and GM crops they didn’t. It was the collapse of tourism that delivered the coup de grace to Sri Lanka, and economic warfare by the West because they were growing close to China.

    • 回复: @Mary Marianne
  51. @A European Visitor

    The Netherlands will shortly be under water, so why bother?

  52. antibeast 说:
    @Anonymous

    China has emerged as the leading infrastructure and manufacturing powerhouse of the world over the last three decades, making it an indispensable part of the global economy. The much ballyhooed attempts at ‘containing’ China which the USA tried but failed to accomplish since Obama’s Pivot to Asia proves this salient fact. Both Obama and Trump did everything they could to marginalize China’s role in the global economy. But all they’ve accomplished is to force the Chinese authorities to restructure the Chinese economy away from exports to the USA while reaching out to both the EU market in the developed world as well as emerging markets in the developing world. As the US Empire itself is dependent upon China’s continued usage of and support for the USD in the global economy, any US attempt to restrict China’s role in the USD-based global economy is bound to backfire against its USD Empire. That economic reality eviscerates any delusional fantasies of anti-China hawks such as Peter Zeihan who want to have their geopolitical cake but wish to eat it too.

    • 回复: @Brian Damage
  53. @Anonymous

    When I see Peter Zeihan, I see BS. Everything he said is so easily discounted. Gordon Chang has been predicting the demise of China for two decades. Peter Zeihan (Gordon 2.0)took over the mantle.

  54. @antibeast

    Obama’s 2nd term, seems like the neocons just took over. His first term, dealing with the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, he needed China to inject a lot of cash into the American economy to save it from collapsing. China did. China bought unprecedented amount of US treasury even knowing that their value are diluted from printed money as a gesture of goodwill and future cooperation.

    Lo and behold, on Obama’s 2nd term, he started his Pivot to Asia, Shillary Clinton started going around South East Asia stirring up sh3t. The Paracel and Spratley islands were just an issue that the South East Asian nations and China were squabbling about. Hillary told Vietnam to build structures in one of the islands. That’s when China started to build extensive structures including military structures in many islands.

    “Pivot to Asia” got aggressive with China. That’s when China knew that the US and the West never changed and will always find ways to get ahead instead of working together. That’s when they knew they need a leader like Xi Jinping. Onwards, China started to strive for self sufficiency. see below from my previous post.

    After seeing how the West sanctions Russia, I am beginning to understand why China did what it did the last 10 years. Seems like the technocrats in China already planned for the eventuality of the West acting like it did in the “century of humiliation”. Pushing Russia to China, now seems irreversible, is the worst strategic mistake made by clueless ideologues in Washington.

    China is developing its own commercial airplanes but still a decade away from any significant impact on its own aviation industry. Sanctions on Boeing and Airbus parts and a blockade on petroleum, China is screwed. High-speed rail seems to solve this.

    It already developed safer nuclear reactor technology and is planning to build at least 150 nuclear plants in 10-15 years. Currently it has about 55 nuclear plants.

    2020, US prevented China from having access to 10nm fabrication machines and just last week, thinking of sanctioning 14nm machines to China. Kinda late as China is in the process of implementing its own 14nm fabbing process. IDC Data predicts by 2024, China itself will account for 45% of global chip demand. Obviously, China will spent billions in chip technology R&D to lessen its reliance on foreign suppliers.

    China improved its agriculture technology by leaps and bounds the last 20 years and now is the largest producer of wheat and rice. It produces 23% of the world’s corn, 18% of the world’s wheat and 28% of the world’s rice. China with 18% of the world’s population may be able to achieve food self sufficiency within the next decade despite losing arable land to the the desert.

    Climate change is the main challenge in its quest for food security. It is speeding up its implementation of green technology and agro technology. After years of research, just this year, it is starting large scale planting of seawater rice. Large scale reforestation of desert seems to be working so far.

    看起来中国早在 10 年前就计划好了这一切,期待着西方与中国脱钩的那一天。

    • 同意: vox4non
    • 谢谢: dogbumbreath
    • 回复: @antibeast
  55. antibeast 说:
    @Brian Damage

    Obama’s 2nd term, seems like the neocons just took over. His first term, dealing with the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, he needed China to inject a lot of cash into the American economy to save it from collapsing. China did. China bought unprecedented amount of US treasury even knowing that their value are diluted from printed money as a gesture of goodwill and future cooperation.

    You’re absolutely right! In 2008, China’s GDP of \$4.6T was still behind Japan’s GDP of \$5T. But China’s purchase of US T-bills surpassed Japan’s holdings by 2009, reaching a peak of \$1.3T with a GDP of \$8.5T in 2012. China’s US T-bills holdings comprise 15% of its GDP in 2012 which is much higher than the 6% figure today after declining by \$300B since 2014. Here’s a graph of China’s T-bills holdings vs Japan’s:

    Upon its accession to the WTO in 2001, China’s entry into the USD-based global economy did in fact prop up the USD vs the Euro which was launched in 1999. Here’s a graph of the USD as a world reserve currency:

    Note that the USD started declining after the introduction of the Euro in 1999, propped up only by China’s entry to the USD-based global economy in 2001. Were it not for China agreeing to use the USD as a condition for its entry to the WTO in 2001, the USD would have declined much faster as seen during the 1970s and 1980s, a period of stagflation which is reminiscent of what’s happening in the USA today. Ironically, Japan has now taken over China as the biggest buyer of US T-bills, reversing the role held by China since 2008.

    With \$30T of public debt, the US economy would implode today if the USD were to fall below 50% of the world’s reserve currencies, as had occurred during the 1980s. The USA desperately needs somebody — anybody — to buy its public debt. But China is no longer available this time around to buy US public debt. That’s the consequence of Obama’s Pivot to Asia, further exacerbated by Trump’s trade war, both of which failed utterly to contain China’s pivotal role in the global economy. That’s like shooting your own feet twice in a row. China is now awaiting the next move by the USA to impose financial sanctions which is equivalent to slashing your own throat. As there is nothing remotely similar to China’s economic heft which underpinned the US economy since the early 2000s, the USA has now resorted to monetizing its public debt by the endless money printing from the Fed.

    • 谢谢: dogbumbreath
    • 回复: @PseudoCryptic
    , @Brian Damage
  56. @antibeast

    the USA has now resorted to monetizing its public debt by the endless money printing from the Fed

    Which is a huge part of the reason we are seeing a very sharp uptick in long-term inflation in the United States.

    In fact, we are seeing the start of a perfect storm of a Depression combined with massive Inflation. Which is theoretically ALMOST impossible, but we already saw the Stagflation of the 1970s.

    1970s: stagnant economy, rising prices! Who wouldn’t love that?!?

    This time is so much worse.

    • 回复: @antibeast
  57. @antibeast

    The USA desperately needs somebody — anybody — to buy its public debt. But China is no longer available this time around to buy US public debt. That’s the consequence of Obama’s Pivot to Asia, further exacerbated by Trump’s trade war, both of which failed utterly to contain China’s pivotal role in the global economy. That’s like shooting your own feet twice in a row. China is now awaiting the next move by the USA to impose financial sanctions which is equivalent to slashing your own throat

    Obama started the whole sh3t. Trump stupidly pulled the rug out. Now, senile Biden and his idiots like Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland and cohorts are burning the rug along with the whole house.

    No way China will come to US’s rescue this time. Europe and Japan are too indebted to do anything. At the end of the day, the only way out is to start a war and reset everything. I don’t think it will work as Russia and China are bracing for that war. China and Russia, for decades have suffered a lot and the people were forged by hardship. The good life Europe and the US enjoyed for many decades on the backs of the rest the world made them too soft to grind through the aftermath of the war.

    • 回复: @showmethereal
  58. @Brian Damage

    China holdings of US T bills just fell to its lowest level in a decade or so… Now below 1 trillion.

    • 回复: @Brian Damage
  59. antibeast 说:
    @PseudoCryptic

    In fact, we are seeing the start of a perfect storm of a Depression combined with massive Inflation. Which is theoretically ALMOST impossible, but we already saw the Stagflation of the 1970s.

    The reason why the USA suffered from stagflation in the 1970s had to do with the worldwide loss of confidence in the USD after Nixon nixed the Gold Standard in 1971. That and the the 1973 OPEC oil embargo forced the USA had to negotiate the ‘oil-for-USD’ deal with the Saudis in exchange for US military ‘protection’ in order to prop up the USD based on this Petrodollar System. That’s how the USD recovered its status as the world’s reserve currency by the 1990s. But when the Europeans launched the Euro in 1999 which Saddam Hussein had planned to use for Iraqi oil, the USD’s share started declining as the Petroeuro System would have posed an existential threat to the Petrodollar System. The same thing would have happened with the final completion of the NordStream 2 pipeline and the expected ratification of the China-EU investment treaty, both of which would have led to the Euro displacing the USD as the world’s reserve currency. Just like the oil crisis induced by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, the energy crisis this time is being caused by the US-instigated Ukraine conflict which have destroyed any EU hopes of integrating Russia into the Eurozone while contributing to higher inflation in the USA. With inflation now expected to reach double digits in the second half of this year, the Fed would need to increase its interest rates to match the higher inflation rate in the USA. Here’s a graph of the US inflation rate vs the Fed interest rates over the last 50 years:

    • 回复: @Brian Damage
  60. PJ London 说:
    @GMC

    “I think if the Mid East, Latin Americans, Africans, and others, can’t see which train to hop on…”
    They hopped aboard years ago, but like Russia with Syria and China with Taiwan, they have patience. There is no need to shout and give the US the finger, they are quietly ignoring her and getting on with building proper trade and other relationships with the 85% of the world that is ignoring the US sanction crap.

    • 同意: showmethereal
    • 谢谢: GMC
  61. @antibeast

    Jimmy Carter did the right thing by raising interest rate to counter the out of control inflation. Debt was also reduced to 1950s level. It worked but his presidency became a casualty of it. Reaganomics was a beneficiary of it. Reaganomics cut taxes, deregulated regulations on businesses and increased the money supply. The US stock market doubled during Reagan’s two terms. US debt also doubled. Post Reagan, the fall of USSR and China became the workshop of cheap goods for the US in the 90s, propelled the stock market to historic highs. Same with debt.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart?q=us+debt

    • 回复: @antibeast
  62. @showmethereal

    China holdings of US T bills just fell to its lowest level in a decade or so… Now below 1 trillion.

    Japan is dumping its T-Bill holdings too. It is still the largest holder of T-Bills at 1.2 trillion.

  63. antibeast 说:
    @Brian Damage

    Reaganomics was a beneficiary of it. Reaganomics cut taxes, deregulated regulations on businesses and increased the money supply. The US stock market doubled during Reagan’s two terms. US debt also doubled. Post Reagan, the fall of USSR and China became the workshop of cheap goods for the US in the 90s, propelled the stock market to historic highs. Same with debt.

    Reaganomics is supply-side economics based on the neoliberal doctrine of USD-based debt-fueled economic globalization. China became the recipient of the Reaganomics-driven USD outflows after Deng’s market reforms in the 1980s and 1990s, culminating in its accession to the WTO in 2001. The USA really didn’t have much choice but to allow China’s entry into the USDzone in order for Reaganomics to work, especially after the launch of the Euro in 1999, which created the Eurozone effectively decoupling Europe from the USDzone. The Ukraine Crisis is the latest reaction of the USA to prevent the Euro from displacing the USD as was the US invasion of Iraq which was intended to prevent Saddam Hussein from ditching the USD in favor of the Euro.

    As US inflation surpasses 10% in the second half of this year, the Fed has very little room to maneuver but to increase its interest rates in order to contain higher inflation in the USA which could very well see a repeat of the 1970s period of stagflation. The US stock markets did decline precipitously during that 1970s period only to reverse during the 1980s after Reaganomics unleashed a massive flood of USD-based debt-fueled economic globalization. But that option is no longer available today to the USA because China has opted to seek its economic fortunes elsewhere around the world. Nor can the USA rely on more debt to fuel its growth as its USD currency loses its reserve status in the coming decades. That implies massive USD inflows to the USA as Central Banks all over the world ditch the USD in favor of other currencies, reversing a three-decade old period of USD outflows since the 1990s.

    The world is about to witness the end of the Reaganomics Era which has created an enormous pile of USD debt. With more than \$30T in debt, the USA no longer has the financial means to extend much less maintain its overseas Empire, consisting of 900+ military bases and dozens of aircraft carriers, paid for by trillions of US defense spending, partly underwritten by the USD debt owed to China. Nobody is around to save the US economy this time around as the USD debt pyramid unravels in time.

    • 同意: Brian Damage, Mary Marianne
    • 谢谢: dogbumbreath, showmethereal
  64. @mulga mumblebrain

    It’s basically because many actors in the west are not sincerely wanting to become green, they are using it to grift more money and turn the rest of society poorer. This ain’t China, where the state is promoting green with the explicit goal of creating more wealth for the average citizens.

    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  65. @A European Visitor

    We can only hope that the Dutch farmers win this battle. Bedsides, I keep saying— now that Europe is cut off from Russian gas, won’t the creation of your own gas be essential for the oncoming winter? Then, instead of complaining about cows farting out too many patties, why ain’t everyone dumping those cow patties into big bio digesters to create more biogas?

    The whole ‘green’ deal here in the west is basically a giant fraud.

  66. @Mary Marianne

    That’s true. The ecological catastrophe is demonstrably true, AND caused by capitalism operating as designed. One of the prime imperatives of capitalism is to enrich the wealthy as much as possible, while keeping a boot grinding down on the rabble’s throat.
    A green, circular, permanent economy is anathema to capitalism, which is a form of cancer that must die if not consuming new flesh or ‘resources’. So the capitalists have spent BILLIONS bribing politicians through contributions, lobbying and employment, and on propaganda and disinformation. Many morons and ignoramuses bought the propaganda lies, and, as with imbeciles everywhere, they cannot accept that they have been conned, because of egotism. So the last forty years were wasted, and the next forty will produce the coup de grace. The morons are beginning to wake up to reality, and that presages the greatest outburst of rage and vengeance in history. Pity the poor denialists.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  67. Anonymous[241]• 免责声明 说:
    @mulga mumblebrain

    One of the prime imperatives of capitalism is to enrich the wealthy as much as possible, while keeping a boot grinding down on the rabble’s throat.

    No, that’s the Left, — your guys –, you. Visit any of the “inner cities” in the US. There was nothing like that in the US before LBJ’s Grate Society, so called because it produced so many bums who spent the winter on urban grates. Consider the USSR, which reduced its own population to poverty when, under the late Tsars, that same population had been industrializing at a very high rate (which was one of the reasons that Imperial Germany half welcomed WW I — another few years, and Imperial Germany knew that it could definitely not win against Russia).

    This “friend of the poor” bit when you hurt the poor terribly is offensive.

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