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正确估计冠状病毒感染
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冠状病毒的流行可能很快就会造成美国自 150 多年前内战以来最大的灾难,而数字揭示了可能的严重程度。

例如, “纽约时报” 专栏作家尼古拉斯克里斯托夫周日 报告了令人沮丧的分析 英国的 Neil Ferguson 博士是世界领先的流行病学家之一。 根据弗格森博士的说法,“最好的情况”是冠状病毒将杀死超过 XNUMX 万美国人。

其他可能的预测要糟糕得多。 上周,加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽瑟姆 (Gavin Newsom) 发布命令,将整个州完全封锁,以阻止疾病的传播。 他解释说,专家曾警告他,如果行为没有急剧变化, 超过 25 万加州人将被感染 在接下来的几个月里。 这样的灾难显然会导致该州的医疗保健系统完全崩溃,可能导致超过一百万人死亡。 到初夏,XNUMX 万加州人死亡……

了解冠状病毒可怕危险的关键在于,它没有现有的免疫力,而且这种疾病具有高度传染性。 因此,一般情况下,感染人数往往每3-6天翻一番。 3 天的倍增时间将在一个月内将感染者的数量增加一千倍。

因此,在 XNUMX 月下旬,意大利政治领导人几乎没有将这种病毒视为严重的国家威​​胁,但在短短几周内,意大利的大部分医疗保健系统已经崩溃,成千上万的意大利人死亡。 尽管全国全面封锁,意大利的死亡人数仍呈指数级上升。

同样,纽约 报告首例死亡 14 月 XNUMX 日。 然而仅仅十天后,该州的死亡人数 每天运行 50,并迅速加速。

不幸的是,尽管数字对于我们抗击这种可怕疾病的努力绝对至关重要,但我们缺乏准确的美国数据,尤其是关于感染率的数据。

问题是,鉴于我们缺乏足够的测试资源,任何大规模、广泛测试的计划都是完全不可能的。 同时,冠状病毒有一段相当长的潜伏期,在此期间受害者不会出现任何症状,甚至在此之后许多病例都很轻微甚至完全没有症状,使感染者不知道自己的病情。 因此,目前,测试仅限于一小部分人口,以确保报告的感染人数严重不足。 但我们只能猜测有多严重。

然而,冠状病毒死亡统计数据肯定要可靠得多,我很快注意到一种简单易行的方法,可以从冠状病毒死亡中合理估计冠状病毒感染。 但是虽然方法论对我来说很明显,但在 我昨天在评论线程上描述了它,我遇到了很多最初的困惑和分歧,这表明这个想法并不像我想象的那么明显。 因此,有些人可能不熟悉该方法,因此我决定在下面对其进行概述。

让我们注意三个关键的冠状病毒参数,医学专家已经估计了这些参数,尽管它们显然取决于特定条件。

  1. 感染倍增期——大概3-6天
  2. 死亡率——在当地卫生系统崩溃之前可能是 1%。
  3. 典型的死亡期(感染和死亡之间的时间)——据估计,大约为 3 周。

现在考虑冠状病毒死亡。 如果我们假设死亡率为 1%,并且感染和死亡之间有三周的时间间隔,那么我们可以估计三周前有 100 例新感染。 接下来,如果我们假设 6 天的倍增期,那么到死亡发生时,这 100 例感染将增加到 100 * 2^(21/6) = 1000 多例感染。

因此,在这些特定假设下(以及一些简化),真实的总感染人数可以估计为死亡人数的 1000 倍以上。

让我们将这种方法应用于现实生活中。 3 年 23 月 20 日, 纽约报道 53 例新的冠状病毒死亡,使总数达到 210。这表明当天新感染的真实人数可能已超过 50,000,使感染总数增加到 200,000 以上。 这些估计是 大八到十倍 比官方报告的纽约冠状病毒总数,即 4,750 和 25,665。

对纽约感染的估计依赖于六天的翻倍期,很可能更大的“社会疏远”加上该州最近实施的封锁可能大大增加了这个数字的参数,从而减少了正确的感染人数。感染。 但我强烈怀疑,与纽约当局官方报道的数字相比,上述数字仍然更接近真相。 假设有 25,000 名受感染的纽约人与相信真实数字已经接近 200,000 人之间显然存在巨大的实际差异。

这是另一个例子。 路易斯安那州冠状病毒感染的官方估计目前不到 1,400,但这种估计方法表明,真实总数接近 50,000,这一数字具有截然不同的政策含义。 虽然我不太重视该估计的精确准确性,但我坚信它比官方的微小总数更接近现实。

总结一下,估计感染的公式是:

  • 感染人数 = 死亡人数 / Mortality_Rate *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)。

重要的是要认识到所使用的参数可能需要根据特定情况重新调整。

例如,一旦医疗保健系统崩溃,死亡率可能会飙升至 5% 左右,从而大大改变了计算方式。 同样,一旦采取政府封锁或其他类似措施,感染的倍增期就会变得更长。

在其他情况下,如果死亡人数中有很大一部分是疗养院的老年居民(如华盛顿州的情况),那么假定的死亡率会高得多,而且不动的居民所产生的感染会在翻倍期间降低,显着改变适当的方程。

最后,这种分析可能带有重要的政策含义。 假设我们估计感染的最好和最准确的方法确实基于这种方法。 因此,我们将使用当前的死亡率来回到三周前发生的感染率,因此对政府政策影响的任何分析都必然会滞后三周。

在这种情况下,对特朗普总统或其他政府官员来说是极其不可取的 撤销他们的任何封锁或隔离决定 直到至少三个星期过去了,这些政策对感染率的影响才完全显现出来。

 
• 类别: 科学 •标签: 冠状病毒, 疾病 
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  1. Uradel666 说:

    Leave no doubt whatsoever, the “Coronademic” is the Economic project which will be resulted in empowerment and centralization of Authorities, National Army, and National Banking System.

    It goes Worldwide through the economic restructuring and realignment of US T-debts. A step away from “one-stop-shop” system. Welcome to the capitalist (mode of) communism (market system communism) or communistic mode of capitalism designed by kolkhoznik Rothschild.

    Similar “Coronademics” events are going to be a part and parcel of this new Rothschild Capitalism.

    • 同意: Malla
    • 谢谢: refl
    • 回复: @Tlotsi
    , @Corvinus
    , @Kali
  2. Trinity 说:

    I want to hear or read from someone WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS SOMEONE THAT HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH THIS ILLNESS OR MAYBE EVEN SOMEONE WHO KNOWS SOMEONE WHO HAS UNFORTUNATELY PASSED AWAY FROM THIS VIRUS. I call BULLSHIT. How many of these people were VERY OLD, how many had preexisting health issues, etc. I can’t believe the number of people who are falling for this SHIT. Lets hear or read from those QUALIFIED physicians who have stated this is nothing more than a flu and this happens every single year at this time. I fear my liberties being taken away a helluva lot more than the flu. Lets hear it, people, IF this shit is so bad, there has to be someone out there who knows somebody who has caught the corona bug lately. Do we really trust the people giving us this info? Do I have to remind you people of WMDs and the official narrative of 9-11 once more? Got to be someone out there with coronavirus. Spill it.

  3. 37 说:

    不要麻木不仁,但死去的人首先是一只脚在罐子里。

    在相关死亡人数至少达到严重流感水平之前,应该非常谨慎地相信机构/政府告诉我们的内容。

    蓬佩奥公开表示,我们的政府“撒谎、欺骗和偷窃”以实现其反基督教的目标。

    几周前,美国疾病控制与预防中心在联邦法院承认,经过多年徒劳的 FOIA 请求,他们声称的研究证明疫苗不会导致自闭症,实际上根本不存在。

    世卫组织在最近的一次全球会议上对缺乏疫苗安全性以及现代科学在确保疫苗安全性方面的严重滞后表示担忧。 他们还提到,越来越多的医生对疫苗持怀疑态度。 他们继续推销他们知道不安全的疫苗。

    现在,为什么美国人要向他们寻求真相和解决方案?

    美国人一定是这个星球上最容易上当受骗和最无知的人。

    • 同意: mh505
  4. Truth3 说:

    No Shit.

    Ron Unz again uses Math & Truth to Hammer All Nail… and No Thumb.

    Bravo Mr. Unz.

    By the way… Trump is listening to the total clown Larry Kudlow… not Medical or Mathematical experts.

    上帝帮助我们。

    • 不同意: anachronism
  5. The Trump administration ran an extensive simulation exercise last year from January until August involving a respiratory virus from China that became a pandemic.

    在模拟演习中,从美国的第一例病例到WHO宣布大流行已经过去了47天。

    今年,美国疾病预防控制中心于21月50日宣布了在美国的第一起案件。 11天后的XNUMX月XNUMX日,WHO宣布大流行。

    • 同意: Tor597
  6. cortesar 说:

    因此,如果正确的感染人数是 200000(我相信这是真的,如果不是更多的话)并且死亡人数是 782(截至目前),那么死亡率是 0.0039
    因此,对于 1 万人的死亡,需要有 256 亿人被感染
    流行病学专家哈哈
    中国和韩国的案例清楚地表明256亿人永远不会被感染

    • 回复: @cortesar
    , @Iris
    , @James Forrestal
  7. joe webb 说:

    “……几个星期以来,意大利的大部分医疗保健系统都崩溃了……”

    崩溃是什么意思?

    假设大多数死亡来自老年人群……那里有多少老年人,免疫缺陷的比例是多少? 从长远来看,这些人的死亡往往会降低死亡率。

    对有多少人将因经济创伤/萧条而死亡的某种猜测可能会产生一个图表来说明这一点。 它可以与现在的曲线结合起来,就让经济走向地狱或对病人进行分类之间进行权衡取舍。

    有没有人建议使用厨房的微波炉对口罩进行消毒?

    乔·韦伯

    • 回复: @anonymous
    , @Saggy
  8. Pft 说:

    “However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable”

    是真的吗

    Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

    “在我们国家,对死亡进行编码的方式非常慷慨,因为所有在医院中死于冠状病毒的人都被视为死于冠状病毒。只有12%的死亡证明显示出了与冠状病毒的直接因果关系,而88%的死亡患者至少患有一种病前病-许多人有XNUMX或XNUMX个病发,”

    – Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health
    Report in English:

    https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

    • 回复: @Ron Unz
    , @Half-Jap
    , @utu
    , @Liza
    , @Will
  9. Truth3 说:
    @Trinity

    Trinity, I’m about 99% sure I had this thing.

    Stay safe. It’s brutal.

    Let the assholes like utu, FB, Frannie, CoMike, Lot, and all their (((kind))) get it.

    What comes around goes around. Zio-Bio didn’t end with Dr. Zack.

    • 回复: @Commentator Mike
  10. NPleeze 说:

    the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable

    But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths, whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.

    If we assume a mortality rate of 1%

    Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill, and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older (and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).

    Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best data available.

    Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate * 2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

    Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that … before they hit the proverbial brick wall.

    Let’s look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x 2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.

    In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.

    But let’s work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model, that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.

    In other words, this “model” is utter bunk.

    What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.

    The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death number is between 1 and 2 million.

    That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood cells, and pancreas (a sort of “frankenstein” bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are susceptible to having an organ fail.

    The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).

    The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don’t exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

    All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

  11. cortesar 说:
    @cortesar

    当我说如果更多时,我坚信感染者与确诊者的比例至少为 10
    对于大多数人来说,病毒会表现得很少,如果有任何症状,除了那些害怕被社会污名诊断的人,还有那些可以说是害怕面对现实并被诊断出来的人等等
    在最有可能的 782 人中(如果有人有统计数据,请提供)90% 的人年龄在 80 岁以上和/或有医疗先决条件的人
    很明显,如果你真的想保护老年人(而不是美德信号或掩盖你自己的恐惧),最好的方法是在年轻和有弹性的时候隔离他们,并建立群体抵抗
    这条所谓的曲线趋于平缓的后果是,到明年冬天,流行病将再次出现,并可能造成更大的破坏
    如果你分析过去的那些,你会发现那些在第一波中受到严重影响的地方/国家在第二波中幸免于难,而那些第一次逃脱的人在一年后迎来了非常重要的第二波

    • 同意: follyofwar
    • 回复: @NPleeze
  12. alan kerns 说:
    @Trinity

    我同意你的怀疑。
    Do the “tests” prove that COVID-19 causes illness?
    是否有可能与 COVID-19 相关的部分甚至全部死亡主要是由其他因素造成的?
    COVID-19 是否有可能在当代人群中非常普遍,并且对大多数甚至所有存在它的人都无害?
    These questions deserve forensically rigorous investigation – conducted and reported honestly.

    • 回复: @Quinsat
    , @Maiasta
  13. Half-Jap 说:

    With regard to a part of my comment elsewhere, here is a helpful quotation from the CDC on their version of the real time RT-PCR panel:

    Results are for the identification of 2019-nCoV RNA. The 2019-nCoV RNA is generally detectable in upper and lower respiratory specimens during infection. Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities.

    It appears that the 2019 nCoV is a necessary condition, but not itself sufficient, for disease, and if allowed to make the next leap, cause death. As you suggested, other variables, such as advanced age, may be an important factor, and considering reports from China, there are other conditions that are necessary or themselves sufficient to cause death, also in conjunction with other variables. With more data, one could present a more specific policy proposal instead of wholesale lockdown, by targeting those most vulnerable for protection and support.

  14. Ron Unz 说:
    @Pft

    “However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable”

    是真的吗

    Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

    Well, I’m pretty skeptical of that figure, but anyway it’s not relevant to my argument.

    I’m primarily focusing on the effective use of American death statistics to determine the lagged-spread of the the Coronavirus. So medical authorities here would have to be careful to properly attribute Coronavirus deaths.

    Anyway, it’s certainly easier than trying to test many millions of Americans, which is simply impossible. Random testing for sampling purposes might work, but the infection rate might initially be low enough to require very large random samples for statistical significance.

    So why not just use the death data since we already have it?

  15. niteranger 说:

    罗恩:

    You can’t assume the death rate at 1% because as the hospitals and the systems get overwhelmed that rate may go up dramatically. Your equation is “static” and does not reflect real world systems which are dynamic.

    Taleb is right. Epidemics are “Fat Tailed” events. I believe they may have paper on that. Epidemiologists have put out more bad papers on statistics and disease than any other group of scientists and they continue to do so. You are impressed by credentials and not the real world data.

  16. FB 说: • 您的网站

    Well…I am skeptical of trying to reduce this to a simple math formula like ‘total infections equal one thousand times the number of deaths’…

    OTOH, the good thing about this approach is that the number of deaths are one of the few pieces of fairly solid information we do have…

    So…assuming then that this is even a useful exercise [which I’m not sure it is, since even the number of deaths is up for debate at this point], I will note that the math could have been explained a little better…

    If the doubling time is six days, then that is a rate of increase of 12 percent [2^(1/6) = 1.12] ...

    If it takes 21 days to die, then that gives a roughly eleven-fold increase in total infections from the date that the now-dead victim first contracted the disease [1.12^21 = 11.3] ...

    AND if we assumed correctly that only one in a hundred people who get the virus at the exact same time actually die…then the total amount of infected people at the time that victim has actually died, 21 days later works out to 100 times 11.3 equals 1,130… [1 / 0.01 * 11.3 = 1,130]

    In other words, in the time it took that one-in a hundred fatal victim to die, the disease has now spread to about ~1,000 more people…

    HOWEVER…this does NOT take into account any kind of 人类流动性 considerations…this may have some validity for a single town or city, but NOT for a state, much less a country…for the simple reason that people don’t move about that far on a daily basis…

    Have a look at this paper’s 方法 in developing such a mathematical model for mobility by car, train and air in China…it’s quite elaborate…

    At each new location, someone who was infected elsewhere brings it to that town or city…it then starts from that single person [or however many infected people may have made the same trip on the same day] and then again builds very slowly at first, like all exponential growth…

    That is the fatal flaw in this kind of assumption…the reader may now simply take the figure of deaths for New York state and multiply by 1,000…or even do that for the whole country, which would be erroneous…I would say some additional provisos or cautions are required here…

  17. Half-Jap 说:
    @37

    In pioneering the field of ‘public diplomacy’ or ‘public relations’ aka propaganda, that’s what the Brits said of the Americans. Edward Bernays perfected it. Americans in general eat it all up.

  18. Half-Jap 说:
    @Pft

    While I agree with the problem with measurement/recording, death with the virus present would nevertheless be a good approximation of measuring the rate of infection.

  19. Well. I have 5 and a half months of supplies left. Looks like it might not be enough. Gonna order some more.

  20. @37

    美国人一定是这个星球上最容易上当受骗和最无知的人。

    Now that you’ve made the obligatory anti-American comment, you can go sit at the cool kids table. In the meantime, please show me where all the non-gullible people live. I’ve yet to encounter a place on this godforsaken planet with such magic beings.

  21. @Truth3

    You must have insider knowledge of the proceedings at the White House. Cool!

  22. FB 说: • 您的网站
    @Trinity

    A comment posted on the Godfree Roberts thread just a few hours ago…

    I live fairly near Fort Detrick, but my brother did not. He lived in New Jersey just outside New York City, and came down with what was diagnosed as pneumonia in late December, I believe as a result of a visit to Sloan Kettering cancer hospital on Manhattan just before Christmas. He died at the beginning of February.

    This guy has been posting regularly on the Moon of Alabama forum for years…he is legit…

    Also hard to believe you haven’t noticed the many anecdotes from commenters who said they had strange flu-like symptoms this winter that seemed to linger quite long…I suggest you remove your head from your bunghole and try to develop some situational awareness…

    • 回复: @Nodwink
  23. AlabamaMan 说:
    @Trinity

    我有一个朋友,他的母亲最近被诊断出患有五流感。 70年代中期。 长期吸烟者。 纽约市。 双肺肺炎。 移民老人经常光顾的地区。

    这是媒体大肆宣传 BS 以推翻特朗普。 特朗普需要重新开放。 让自由城市用锁链锁住他们的公民吧。

    • 回复: @Lol
  24. NPleeze 说:
    @cortesar

    What is going to happen with this so called flattening curve …

    is that until a cure/reliable vaccine is found, martial law will need to be maintained, since the second you loosen it, you’ll have this alleged “exponential growth” hyper-curve again.

    So if no cure is found within 10 years, we’ll probably all have long starved to death or be living in caves. Since society is not 100% shut down, the virus will continue to be transmitted – it is far too wide-spread, and exposure has been too limited, for it to “die” out.

    冠状病毒可以 在表面上存活很长时间 因此,即使是包裹也可以将其带入您的家中:

    “人类冠状病毒可以在室温下在无生命的表面上保持传染性长达 9 天。 在 30°C [86°F] 或更高的温度下,持续时间较短。 兽用冠状病毒已被证明可以持续更长时间,持续 28 天[天]。”

    Obviously global martial law is unsustainable, and vastly more deadly than this “pandemic” could ever be.

    我不反对老人,深深地爱着他们中的许多人,如果他们死了会被摧毁,但作为一个社会,为了拯救已经一只脚已经踏入坟墓的人而摧毁它是完全愚蠢的(他们很容易死于流感、肺炎、结核病或其慢性疾病),以及谁可以通过自我隔离来拯救自己。

    疯狂程度令人难以置信!

  25. Anon[279]• 免责声明 说:
    @Trinity

    How about this one from the NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

    I’m 26. Coronavirus Sent Me to the Hospital.
    I’m 26. I don’t have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a week, and abstain from cigarettes. I thought my role in the current health crisis would be as an ally to the elderly and compromised. Then, I was hospitalized for Covid-19.
    ...
    That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills, vomiting, and shortness of breath. By Monday, I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was gasping for air. I couldn’t walk to the bathroom without panting as if I’d run a mile. On Monday evening, I tried to eat, but found I couldn’t get enough oxygen while doing so. Any task that was at all anxiety-producing — even resetting my MyChart password to communicate with my doctor — left me desperate for oxygen.
    ...
    While I was shocked at the development of my symptoms and my ultimate hospitalization, the doctors and nurses were not at all surprised. After I was admitted, I was told that there was a 30-year-old in the next room who was also otherwise healthy, but who had also experienced serious trouble breathing. The hospital staff told me that more and more patients my age were showing up at the E.R. I am thankful to my partner for calling the hospital when my breathing worsened, and to the doctor who insisted we come in. As soon as I received an oxygen tube, I began to feel slight relief. I was lucky to get to the hospital early in the crisis, and receive very attentive care.

    This one is even worse:
    What I learned when my husband got sick with coronavirus
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  26. utu 说:

    If your parameters are correct, in 3 weeks = Mortality_Period there should be about 500=50,000*0.01 new deaths.

    Note that after multiplying your formula by Mortality_Rate to get the number of new deaths in (Mortality_Period) days the

    New deaths(t+Mortality_Period) = Number of Deaths(t) *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

    it is independent of Mortality_Rate value. Which obviously makes sense because the same exponential function governs the infections as the mortality except that the latter lags behind the former. So what will happen in 3 weeks is independent of your estimate of Mortality_Rate unless they will find a cure. Now the question: is it 3 weeks? How good are the estimates of the other two parameters?

    Will we see a single day increment of 500 deaths in NYC and when? Italy had already 5 days with an increment larger than 500.

  27. anonymous[261]• 免责声明 说:
    @joe webb

    有没有人建议使用厨房的微波炉对口罩进行消毒?

    我问了某人这个问题。
    Reply: “Unless you put some food or a vessel of water with it, could cause a fire. Best not to use microwave.”

    锅里烧开水,把面膜放进去。
    在非常非常低的温度下,在试点的烤箱中将其干燥。

    • 巨魔: Saggy
    • 回复: @Carroll Price
  28. Ami 说:
    @NPleeze

    Oxford’s Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25).

    Two Stanford doctors writing in The Wall Street Journal suggest that the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01%, which is about one-tenth the mortality of seasonal flu. They suggest that a better strategy than widespread lockdowns would be to focus on protecting vulnerable members of the population, particularly the elderly.

    Both of these estimates would result in far, far fewer deaths than the garbage-in garbage-out models produced by Imperial College and others.

    • 回复: @A Texas Libertarian
  29. Agathoklis 说:

    It seems Ron Unz lacks basic understanding of mathematics. Italian deaths are not rising exponentially.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    And Italian confirmed cases are only growing modestly.

    https://twitter.com/ricpuglisi/status/1242498526355087360/photo/1

    • 回复: @utu
  30. NPleeze 说:
    @Ron Unz

    So why not just use the death data since we already have it?

    Because it’s unscientific in innumerable ways. Why not use the number of hysterical mass media pieces as the data source for that matter?

    First, nobody knows that these SARS-CoV-2 tests are valid.

    Second, just because someone had SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t mean they died of COVID-19. Many of them have numerous underlying conditions, the flu, and/or pneomonia.

    Third, let’s say 80% of the population has already been exposed (you, of course, conveniently assume that away, because it doesn’t fit your “model”). The fact that a few thousand have died is of course an extremely different situation than if only 10,000 have been exposed (a number you pull out out of thin air, so I may as well put out 250 million exposures – after all, it’s been around 5 months and the flu gets to even more people in that time).

    But anyway, a certain percent of the population has decided the sky is falling, and there’s no reasoning with primal fear.

    • 同意: Homeschooling Mom in NY
    • 回复: @botazefa
  31. Agathoklis 说:
    @NPleeze

    The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don’t exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

    Precisely. We have received several reports recently of young people being hospitalised and some even dying. However, the reports do not specify the condition of those young people. In places like the US, the youth are very unhealthy so it would not surprising to discover the youth requiring hospitalisation are obese or drug takers.

  32. Quinsat 说:
    @alan kerns

    I share it, too. Herewith three three thought-provoking links:



    视频链接

    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
  33. This is what the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention tells us in its ‘Coronavirus’ test manual about 1 the specificity and reliability of the test and 2 the ‘virus’ itself:

    ‘Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease.’

    See ‘CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel Instructions for Use’ at cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/index.html

    How unbelievably fucked up.

  34. thotmonger 说:

    What s small is easily scattered.
    - 老子

    Daily deaths from all causes in USA average ~7700, or ~ 2,800,000 per year. Total deaths to date in USA from corona virus are now 774, or about 10% of the daily total from all other causes. But the corona deaths were built up over a few weeks and how many of these people would have succumbed to other things? Yeah yeah, it is starting to snow ball and then we will eat crow who fail to underestimated its looming impacts. And I have heard about the “overwhelming of the medical system” leading to a sharp rise in fatality rates. That is scary. I also remember some of early estimates of Mad Cow disease in humans in UK and they turned out to be very exaggerated. So models are models and models are often wrong.

    Like why indeed does the Princess Diamond data look so much better, and South Korea too for that matter. Just one percent case fatality or a little more. The way the entire world has mobilized behind this is impressive in terms of government action, but also a little disturbing of what may really be going on. It almost seems like we are being set up for some things much more dramatic and serious.

    In any case, here is an excellent essay on Aluminum toxicity in the brain by Dr. Chris Exley. Nothing on Corona per se, but lots of fascinating science on brain health. Anyone who cares about that stuff between your ears should give this talk a careful watch. The Q&A is excellent too!

    • 回复: @Kratoklastes
  35. @Oddly Enough

    For almost all the terror related crimes these last 20 years, had “simulations” or “drills” going either simultaneously or before the event: 9/11, Boston Marathon Bombing, 7/7/05 London Bombing, San Bernardino, and many others.

    Trump is used by the Globalist-internationalists-communists as a huge scapegoat. That should be clear by now. Neither Trump admin or the Chinese had any reason to benefit from this. Who does set to benefit? Why the Globalists of course. They’re already talking about increasing the world-wide police state as well as increasing all the HIGH-TECH gadgetry they are moving us in direction of.

    But most likely the virus was an accident; not intentional at all. But people will use it…

  36. refl 说:

    我将利用这个机会首先再次宣传两篇推动反叙事的重要文章

    https://www.corbettreport.com/coronavirus-the-cures-will-be-worse-than-the-disease/

    来自科比特报告。

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/5707168

    环球研究网

    我自己的要点。 和这里的大多数人一样,我对医学和病毒学知之甚少。 我只是想利用我的批判能力。
    – 电晕是一类病毒,在所有确诊病例的 5-15% 中发现,在出现疾病症状的病例中可能性更高。
    – 似乎没有特别针对 Covid19 的测试。 无论如何,检测试剂盒的数量是有限的,没有症状的人有充分的理由远离医生。 事实上,在目前的情况下,我建议远离医疗机构,除非你迫切需要帮助。 因此,测试样本将始终高度偏向患有严重问题的人,可能是肺病。
    – 电晕死亡是死于冠状病毒的病例,不一定是死于电晕。 在这场所谓的大流行中死去的人,到目前为止,大部分都是有严重先决条件的老人。 电晕最初很可能不会导致他们的死亡。
    - 西方世界的医院——尤其是在实行欧盟财政政策的意大利——已经被紧缩政策所淘汰。 意大利医院在 2017 年流感大流行期间已经崩溃(没有人谈论过,尽管死亡人数约为 25 000,如果我的数字正确的话)。
    ——在这种情况下,有先决条件的人在医院里很可能会被多重耐药菌超级感染,这很可能会杀死他们。 当我在 80 年代长大时,老人远离医院仍然是常识,因为他们无法生存。 直到最近,情况才有所改善。 正如预期的那样,紧缩政策取消了这一进展。
    ——当然,大量的超级传染性肺部疾病还没有被正确地绘制出来。 现在被诊断为电晕的一切,很可能都是这种情况。

    因此,我没有看到任何暗示,为什么我应该相信电晕。

    另一方面:
    - 世卫组织及相关机构高度腐败
    - 我们有伟大而昂贵的泰米尔福无汉堡的案例。
    ——我们有俄罗斯之门、乌克兰之门、尤那门之门的案例,显然错误的叙述远远超出了任何合理的结局。 这已经被用来对付特朗普了。 预计美国的反特朗普者会坚持这个故事直到他们最后一口气。 这些是 2020 年的总统选举。 赌注不能再高了!
    在整个西方世界,对政府的蔑视在现代是前所未有的。 我们正在接近西部 1989 年的时刻——只是没有预期的好结果。

    在这种情况下,我们的政府突然不得不撤回我们的公民权利,以将我们从无形的致命危险中拯救出来????

    给我休息一下!

    • 同意: Amanda
  37. cranc 说:

    I think that Ron Unz is gravely mistaken in his analysis here.
    There is a growing body of opinion amongst medical professionals and academics that questions the benefits of a lockdown balanced against what we know of the danger from the virus. Ron has not included any of this in his article here, and he should.
    Studies are emerging which are indeed showing that infection stats may be orders of magnitude higher than official estimates, that hospitalisation rates are therefore much lower, and the overall threat overshaddowed by the consequences of closing down the economy and open society.
    As ever the media is the prime culprit in spreading fear and hysteria. Alt media have an obligation to question the very basis of the covid pandemic response.
    ‘The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.’
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
    12 experts speak out:
    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
    From yesterday in WSJ (‘Is The Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?’):
    https://archive.fo/cgCff
    A study from Oxford University Epdemiologists confirming doubts about lethality:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
    Even the UK government website confirms that the covid virus has been re-classified as no longer on the register of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (on March 19th, just before the government closed down the whole society).
    There is more going on here than the virus. Maybe it is incompetence and panic, or something more disturbing. Either way, alt media voices have a duty to report the growing doubt about how deadly this virus really is or isn’t.

    • 同意: hetro
    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
    , @hetro
    , @hetro
  38. cranc 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Well, I’m pretty skeptical of that figure,

    Those figures are from the Italian government.

  39. When you assume a certain mortality rate you can calculate total infections, when you assume a certain number of total infections you can calculate mortality.

    • 回复: @ploni almoni
  40. Alfred 说:

    Let us imagine a hypothetical scenario where everyone who is infected has a red mark on his/her forehead.

    In that eventuality, how long will it take for the infected to stop infecting the rest of the population? One month? One week? One day? One hour?

    Would the economy be disrupted in any way? Hardly at all

    The point I am getting at is that if there were a test as quick and effective as the alcohol breath test, combined with a quarantine for those infected, the whole panic would subside and we would get back to leading normal lives again.

    Russian and Japanese scientists are working on a test that gives the result in 30 minutes. The current test used in the USA takes one week to deliver a result – according to my sources.

    COVID Test Results in 30 Minutes – Russia and Japan Have Invented a Better Test, Mass Testing to Begin in April

    Turn on subtitles by clicking on tool icon or read transcript in above link.

  41. Tom 说:

    All these dizzying extrapolations, projections, abstractions and suppositions
    have my head spinning more than usual. The only thing I’m convinced of is that this pandemic, engineered or not, will green light State Control over every aspect of our lives. The Total Package. This speeds things up. Why wait for Agenda 30, or other edicts from the bowels of the United Nations? Why wait for the Climate Change leviathan to ‘bring it all down, man’? Tyranny needs a crisis, and if one doesn’t exist, they’ll create one. If one does exist, they’ll milk it to the max. Am I to suddenly assume that the Jewish Media /Publishing / Social Media Oligarchs are dispensing with accurate information on the Coronavirus? That the totally corrupt AMA or Big Pharma has the best interests of American citizens at heart? Marxists, Zionists, One-Worlders and the Corporate State
    are salivating over this. As the brutha’s are wont to say “fucdatsheet. Gimmi another Cobra”

  42. Lol 说:

    This virus is a good thing for young Westerners though if it rids us of the parasitic hordes of boomers who want to loot us worse than an occupying army.

    • 巨魔: NPleeze
  43. Alfred 说:

    According to Dr. Ferguson the “best case” scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill over a million Americans.

    According to the pie chart below, which is based on the Italian experience, 99.2% of those who die have one or more pre-existing health condition. I suspect that if you were to exclude those under 60, the result would go up to 99.9%

    This data strongly suggests that only those who are over 60 should be obliged to remain at home. This virus has seemingly been going around the USA since last September and a lot of those who caught it and died were classified as flu victims or something else.

    Every year, several millions die in the USA. That is normal. The deaths allegedly from this virus would have probably died anyway. At worst, their useless lives would have been curtailed by one or two years. Don’t forget that 90% of a person’s lifetime health costs are expended in the past year of “life”. BTW, I am 69 so don’t accuse me of ageism or any such nonsense please. 🙂

    • 回复: @res
    , @mark green
  44. Levtraro 说:

    Your reasoning is sound. It seems to me this a promising methodology to estimate the number of current infections from the number of current deaths, absent large scale testing. The formula allows for easy generalization, for instance, by letting the doubling time be a function of movement restrictions.

    There is one statistical issue though that may undermine the utility of results of applications. The variance of estimation may inflate enormously from variance connected to the doubling time and the variance in the period to death. So the estimated number of current infections could end up having very wide margins of statistical uncertainty.

    Nevertheless, your methodology is very much worth trying as a starting point, absent large scale testing, or in parallel with large scale testing.

    • 同意: PetrOldSack
  45. Alfred 说:

    Once again, the cretinous and pathetic fake leaders of the West have been proved to be little more than glorified teddy bears.

    Putin gets bonus trust points for nailing the hazmat suit appearance first

    • 回复: @NPleeze
    , @NoseytheDuke
  46. Lol 说:
    @AlabamaMan

    特朗普理所当然地称其为候选人的又大又丑的泡沫无论如何都开始缩小。 特朗普把自己当作泡沫的托儿,什么都不做。

    • 同意: Amanda
  47. Ron Unz, the article:

    感染人数 = 死亡人数 / Mortality_Rate *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)。

    Makes practical sense, the comments confirm the reaction expected when thrown in the public domain, mostly of topic reactions. Seems the emotional issue is important to most readers, not cutting to the chase.

    The formula, and the parameters that themselves might have been “tweaked”, or due to inefficient testing not so indicative, by the public authorities and policy makers, is the best (only one?) seen on the “for the public” internet these last weeks. if not, can anyone suggest there have been better attempts to do estimates?

    Adding to the formula, the nexus as to policy makers, to heed the “three weeks” in advance warning (bottom up outlier advice, as compared to career “expert” advice), we sincerely hope Mr. Unz gets credit for his attempt.

    The promise of something like a Black Swan as SARS-CoV-2 is here fulfilled: adjustment of policies to reality in the name of the greater good. Imagine the computer power of Wall Street, and the fills of dark suits at the Capitol, big-data, could come up with, when populated by cognitive able individuals. What a waste of energy, a surplus of derivatives, what a smoke stack industry our elites have provoked. The private and public sector of power in the US have failed at this point already, whatever the Coronavirus throws at the surplus population from here on.

    • 回复: @utu
  48. refl 说:
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    告诉我所有不轻信的人住在哪里

    你说的对。 虽然在我看来,电晕绝对是疯狂的,而且随着我遇到的每一次愚蠢的计算,我的信念越来越坚定,它在现实中获得了自己的维度。 原因是不存在的,但后果是真实的:
    人们死在不堪重负的医院里,卫生系统不堪重负。 世界经济正在崩溃,无论如何它都会崩溃。 找到了方便的替罪羊,PTB 让真相大白的兴趣为零。
    我们会制定使拒绝电晕的法律吗? 因为它羞辱死者并伤害他们的家人?

    我在祈祷圣罗恩无所畏惧地说出真相,但他全力以赴。

    我以前写过这个。 我的大马士革时刻是 2014 年 XNUMX 月的 Kiew。从那时起,我就知道,那些支持这件事的人会及时让我的国家和世界着火。
    我惊叹于他们的创造力。

    这不仅仅是美国的轻信。

    • 同意: Amanda, St-Germain
    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
  49. Anonymous[545]• 免责声明 说:

    Similarly, once government lockdowns or other similar measures are taken, the doubling-period of the infection becomes much longer.

    I’m pretty certain that there’s no doubling once a country, (province, city, whatever) enacts a relatively comprehensive lockdown and people themselves take it seriously. I’m in one of those countries and if I look around it’s clear that the R0 ratio is way below 1. Probably less than 0.1 to be honest.

    If I remember correctly, COVID-19 R0 ratio in China was somewhere around 3.5 when the country was still figuring it out. That’s a horrible number but it’s easy to see how it can be brought down to a tiny fraction when 95% of risky contacts get removed and the remaining 5% approached with protective gear and caution. The virus doesn’t stand a chance in that kind of environment.

    因此,在接下来的几周里,我几乎可以肯定的数字将开始迅速减少,但国际旅行的问题将持续数月(数年?)。

    • 回复: @NPleeze
    , @Anonymous
  50. anon[806]• 免责声明 说:
    @Trinity

    Trinity – my friend’s wife has three family members with cv. Two are in hospital. I know one person who has it – she is at home. This is UK.

  51. @cranc

    Infections´ correlation to in need of hospitalization. Should be looked at. For that testing is needed, ideally multiple tests over time of the whole of the contingents, squarely delimited into all possible combinations, creating “laboratory” conditions, before applying any general policies of “laisser aller”.

    The impact on the surplus population of central control enforcement with the excuse of Covid-19 scares, is somewhat over-rated maybe. Temporary measures can be turned back, the temporary measures and testing the reaction of the populations are not that surprising. Submission. Lift the menace of the threat (Covid-19) and the reaction can be quite different. A last argument, measures to centrally control the surplus population are in place anyhow, stealth in electronic surveillance is a fact. The best example the “financial” sector. For once applying these methods to anything the matter (a possible epidemic) looks not outlandish.

  52. Franz 说:

    Everyone who’s noted the “sick people getting sicker” part of the equation are probably right.

    There’s too many co-factors. The folks on the cruise shipped that died included large numbers of hypertensives, COPD, heart problems… they were sitting ducks. Healthy people got well. This sounds normal.

    Notice the CDC did the same gyration with the opioid “epidemic”. If you had a prescription pill in your system but heroin or meth killed you, it was automatically an “opioid death.” They’re playing fast and loose again.

    Believe half what you see, none of what you hear. Trust your gut. This thing is a long way from proven real.

  53. refl 说:
    @NPleeze

    我不反对老人,深深地爱着他们中的许多人,如果他们死了会被摧毁,但作为一个社会,为了拯救已经一只脚已经踏入坟墓的人而摧毁它是完全愚蠢的(他们很容易死于流感、肺炎、结核病或其慢性疾病),以及谁可以通过自我隔离来拯救自己。

    It is worse. Most old people by far are quite composed about dying. It is their next and final step in life. Most of them even in our western world of today have known real hardship.
    They live for their grandchildren, they want to see them still, and not be locked up in an old peoples home for a safety that they don’t care about.
    They want to leave a world that is mentally sane and safe for their grandchildren.
    In the meantime, generation whimp has taken over the steering wheel.

    The Richter scale of insanity is open ended. Brace for more idiocy in the very near future.

    • 回复: @Observator
  54. Amanda 说:

    以下是疾病预防控制中心对冠状病毒检测的说法

    乔恩·拉波波特(Jon Rappoport)

    [更多]

    直接从马嘴里——两边

    这是关于结果的CDC段落。 我建议你多读几遍。

    “阳性 [测试] 结果表明 2019-nCoV 感染活跃,但不排除细菌感染或与其他病毒的合并感染。 检测到的病原体可能不是疾病的确切原因。 美国及其领土内的实验室必须向适当的公共卫生当局报告所有阳性结果。”

    我将跳过 CDC 段落中明显的矛盾并切入正题。

    该段的关键是:“检测到的[冠状病毒]病原体可能不是疾病的确切原因。”……

    在更深层次上,疾病预防控制中心直截了当地说, 如果测试显示存在冠状病毒,这并不意味着它会导致疾病.

    嗯,是的,我已经指出测试有一个固有的问题。 充其量,它可能表明患者体内存在病毒。 但该测试无法确定有多少病毒在患者体内积极复制。

    为什么这很重要? 因为, 甚至要开始说一种病毒在人类身上引起了真正的疾病,他的体内必须有数以百万计的病毒复制——而 PCR 测试在现实世界中从未被证明能够使这样的判断准确无误。

    但是,如果您再次阅读 CDC 的引用,您会看到 疾病预防控制中心命令实验室向公共卫生机构报告阳性检测结果——那里将被视为“冠状病毒病例”.

    • 谢谢: Johnny Walker Read
    • 回复: @Joey Pastrami
  55. NPleeze 说:
    @Alfred

    I’m disappointed you did not select the picture where he is protecting a child from a polar bear with one hand while curing 25 sick COVID-19 patients with the other, all while giving a speech on civics and patriotic duty to the rest of his grateful people.

    • 同意: Johnny Walker Read
    • 回复: @Biff
    , @Alfred
  56. utu 说:
    @PetrOldSack

    “Seems the emotional issue is important to most readers, not cutting to the chase.” – This is normal here but usually does not matter as the issues discussed at the UR are not really anchored in reality that matters but now when we are dealing with something that is transforming our lives in a real time the utter inadequacy and pointlessness of most comments can be seen in full light. Perhaps covid-19 will be a transformative moment for the UR as well.

    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
    , @Felix Culpa
  57. NPleeze 说:
    @Anonymous

    You’re gonna have to stay in lockdown until there is a cure/vaccine. Otherwise, as soon as you don’t, you’ll have to spout your exponential growth hysteria again.

    Diamond Princess – best case study – no exponential growth.

    S. Korea – no exponential growth.

    Fact is it is just as possible basically EVERYBODY already got it, more or less all at once (just like flu), and the ones dying now are the only ones who will be dying.

    Exponential growth is a totally made-up, unscientific, hysterical bogey-man.

    • 同意: Realist
    • 回复: @Anonymous
  58. @Oddly Enough

    The WHO declared a pandemic 50 days later on March 11th.

    Rumour in the markets has it WHO held out as long as possible to avoid triggering the provisions of World Bank Pandemic Bonds, for which investors enjoyed relatively high coupon rates in the current low interest-rate environment in exchange for running the risk of losing their principal investment if a pandemic was declared in the window period.

    • 回复: @res
  59. Realist 说:
    @NPleeze

    All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

    This Covid-19 may well have been in the US since the latter part of 2019…just not diagnosed. It may be that the Chinese were the first to test for Covid-19, therefore it appears to have started there.
    At this point…the death rate is unknown…but most likely overstated.

    As I said weeks ago probably Y2K2020.

    • 回复: @James Scott
    , @macilrae
  60. The problem is that any program of massive, widespread testing is completely impossible given our lack of sufficient testing resources.

    Not entirely true. They haveor are running thousands of tests. The real problem is that they are testing people who claim to present with symptoms rather than grabbing random samples of thousands of people in various communities. If you start with a biased sample, of course you’ll get a biased result. One thing that is clear from anecdotal reports is that once one contracts it, it can really tax the system, particularly that of those with other already serious co-morbidities.

    • 谢谢: PetrOldSack
  61. Herald 说:
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Having an over fragile disposition, like yourself, may indeed be a sign of coronavirus infection. Better to calm down and ideally get tested, but of course this being America, that’s not so easy. Anyway keep calm and take things slowly.

    • 回复: @Realist
  62. 在其他情况下,如果死亡人数中有很大一部分是疗养院的老年居民(如华盛顿州的情况),那么假定的死亡率会高得多,而且不动的居民所产生的感染会在翻倍期间降低,显着改变适当的方程。

    What you say holds only if 测试 is heavily biased towards the elderly. I recently wrote a 评论 about the somewhat counterintuitive effects of the typical extreme death skews of the flu. From the extremely limited reading I’ve done, a typical flu season* sees relative mortality risks in the 65+ age group that are 50 times that of the <49 age group.

    The numbers I used are not wholly realistic. But what tends to happen is that as a disease's mortality skews in an extreme way towards the 65+ demographic, or any other, the mortality rate converges on that subset's mortality rate. In other words, given unbiased testing, a bunch of old people dying will actually yield a highly accurate mortality rate.

    *My epidemiology background consists of reading one CDC article a couple weeks ago.

  63. @niteranger

    “For example, New York Times Columnist Nicholas Kristof on Sunday reported the disheartening analysis of Dr. Neil Ferguson of Britain, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists.”

    Nicholas Kristoff has the bad habit of falling for falling for frauds and making them famous. “Three cups of tea” for starters. He’s got a long track record of peddling fake stuff.

    https://slate.com/human-interest/2014/06/nicholas-kristof-wants-to-save-the-world-with-his-new-york-times-columns-why-are-so-many-of-them-wrong.html

    http://fosterspeak.blogspot.com/2017/04/hillary-clinton-nicholas-kristiof.html

  64. utu 说:
    @Agathoklis

    “Italian deaths are not rising exponentially. “ – I am pretty sure they were in the initial period but once the epidemic spreads into areas with different population densities where doubling periods are different and when new countermeasures are being implemented you will see departures from the exponential growth. Even w/o countermeasures when more and more people get infected the reproduction number R0 will be getting smaller resulting in a steady decrease of the exponential coefficient. Zhanwei Du et al. studied the exponential growth in Wuhan in the period before quarantine was imposed. See the Appendix in

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article
    The COVID-19 epidemic was growing exponentially during December 1, 2019– January 22, 2020, as determined by the following: dI(t) = I0 × exp(λ × t) in which I0 denotes the number of initial cases on December 1, 2019, and λ denotes the epidemic growth rate during December 1, 2019–January 22, 2020.

    What is important about Ron Unz approach is that by looking at daily death increments one can gage the number of new infections and as the epidemic progresses the changes in doubling period would be adjusted from daily death increments. In times when very few tests are being done to asymptomatic patients and no serum tests are performed to determine who already went through infection and recovered this approach is very useful and simple method to estimate the extent of the epidemic.

    • 谢谢: Ron Unz
    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  65. Realist 说:

    Similarly, New York reported its first death on March 14th. Yet just ten days later, deaths in that state were running at 50 per day, and rapidly accelerating.

    You mean first death attributed to Covid-19…after testing started. How many died of Covid-19 before testing? It is not known at what stage of the epidemic, testing started…therefore accuracy of data is suspect.

  66. Realist 说:
    @Herald

    Having an over fragile disposition, like yourself, may indeed be a sign of coronavirus infection.

    He either has brain worm…or was just born a dumb bastard.

    • 回复: @Herald
  67. Anonymous[545]• 免责声明 说:
    @NPleeze

    You’re gonna have to stay in lockdown until there is a cure/vaccine.

    Nope. Once the virus is brought under control nationally, the country will be able to start gradually lifting internal disruptive restrictions and concentrate on dealing with foreign travel. This is already happening in Wuhan.

    The trick is to “overreact” as much as possible (within reason, of course) in order to kill it quickly. This is by far the best approach to save lives and businesses (except for those dependent on foreign tourism, arguably).

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  68. @Trinity

    Yesterday German television showed a doctor mentioning the death of a man who was about 30 years old because of corona and who didn’t have any previous disease. They also showed images of the lungs of people with corona and explained how it causes death. The lungs are progressively taken by the virus so that it doesn’t work anymore properly until the patient dies. It’s really not nice. When you see the images of the lungs and know what happens it’s quite different from just hearing that some people die.

    According to an article in Spiegel today the death rate in Italy is 9.4 % ! In the world it’s estimated to be 4.7% according to the article. In Germany it’s much lower (0.4 %). Apparently nobody knows exactly the reason for this difference, but some fear that the reason is that corona in Germany is only beginning. On the other hand, it could be that Germany took more effective measures at an earlier stage. We don’t know.

    (in German):

    https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-es-ist-noch-voellig-offen-wie-es-sich-weiter-entwickelt-a-f9774594-bbf7-418f-b9fa-06b41a17d686

  69. Unfortunately,Ron’s article is flawed from the outset as it assumes that the Coronavirus death statistics are reliable . If there aren’t any reliable or accurate tests for the Coronavirus/COVID-19 , how can you rely on any of the statistics about the disease ? As Jon Rappoport has been pointing out the tests for the disease are worthless ,see :”PSST-THERE IS NO VIRUS-DON’T TELL ANYONE THEY GET REALLY ANGRY” pieceofmindful.com

    • 同意: refl, Hippopotamusdrome
  70. gfhÄndel 说:

    I will keep this comment as brief as possible.
    I welcome refutation of these theses, which I believe are crucial to any analysis of the response to the pandemic:
    1. Current screening tests for COVID19 (a PCR test, not an antibody test) have a high rate of false positives (see excellent contributions on this topic from Kratoklastes).
    2. Draconian public health responses are allegedly aimed at minimizing serious COVID19 disease (severe respiratory distress, up to and including ARDS). “Positive” testing individuals overwhelming do not fall into this category.
    3. At this juncture, our best single metric is death from COVID19. Unfortunately the definition of a COVID19 fatality varies between jurisdictions. To be counted as such a fatality, the current best definition would be: novel coronovirus IgM (+/- IgG) positive (proof of recent infection) plus ARDS (radiologically, if not pathologically, confirmed).
    4. Alleged COVID19 fatalities are overwhelming patients >70 having 3 or more serious comorbidities.
    5. There is an association between ACE-inhibitor or AT-receptor antagonist use and likelihood of death from infection by novel coronavirus.
    To the last point: nearly 40% of the Italian fatalities were using ACE inhibitors (and this may be an underestimate as pre-admission medication charts were lacking). The virus binds to the pulmonary ACE2 receptor.
    Conceivably the use of ACE-inhibitors (or the related AT-receptor antagonists) induces upregulation of this receptor, but this is purely conjecture on my part.
    Anecdotally, use of this medication class is lower in Germany, which has been proffered among reasons for its lower fatality rates.

    • 回复: @botazefa
  71. @Anon

    Thanks to the NYT I learned how a lone gunman shot JFK, that highjackers armed with boxcutters brought down several buildings in the WTC and Osama was ultimately to blame, that Saddam had WMDs, Muammar was killing his own people as was Assad…. It’s a long list and it goes on and on. When does the penny drop for you?

    • 谢谢: follyofwar
    • 回复: @Spanky
    , @John Johnson
  72. LondonBob 说:
    @Ron Unz

    The antibody test is the most vital one. It is the one we here in Britain are focusing on.

    The CMO and CSO here both had the real infection rate as ten to twenty times what the confirmed cases where when I watched them start of last week, even that is a big range. The data is still so uncertain.

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  73. Sokrates 说:
    @37

    昨天我去家得宝为我的制冰机买了一些水管。
    I noticed all doors were blocked with a tape, except one with at least 25 people waiting to get in and a female employee holding a sign “the line starts here”.

    我问那位女士是怎么回事,她说是因为病毒等。
    I said to her “You must be kidding” and I start going back to my car.
    Some old lady from the line waiting to get in she scream to me something about …”we protect ourselfs” and similar nonsense.
    我转身对她说:你这个白痴别看电视了。 他们在光天化日之下抢劫您的钱,并让您的孩子与以色列的敌人战斗而死。

    • 回复: @refl
  74. utu 说:
    @Pft

    The Italian report you linked says that (Onset of symptoms –> Death) is 8 days. And I think it is believed that the average incubation time is 5 days. So the mortality period might be closer to 13 day and not 21 days as Ron Unz assumed. If so the number of new cases of 50,000 would have to be halved to 25,000. Then this would imply that on the 13th day form 3/23/20 we could see about 250 new deaths.

  75. Nodwink 说:
    @FB

    I took my mother to a Korean restaurant just after New Years. A few days later she became very ill. She went to the doctor after a week, with a tentative diagnosis of food poisoning, via salmonella (she had eaten Korean-style fried chicken). I also had chicken, but didn’t get sick.

    She tells me she strongly suspects that she had COVID-19, given how strange and intense the illness felt to her. There’s a fair chance she is right.

  76. oneworld 说:

    I would refer Ron and his readers to the below article by a serious epidemiologist. Problem is that the old computer saying, “garbage in, garbage out”, may apply to all these mathematical models that are scaring the daylights out of the public.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

    • 回复: @davidgmillsatty
  77. The overreaction to the virus makes no sense. Is something being hidden from us? The freak out over this virus – to the tune of \$trillions – is all out of proportion.

    2.8 million Americans die every year. Why the obsession with this one virus which may kill in the thousands?

    Something is off. But Trump should have known early if there was some other hidden danger. If there is some hidden suspicion by the people obsessing over this, please share it!

  78. in late February Italian political leaders hardly regarded the virus as a serious national threat, but within just a few weeks much of the Italian health care system had collapsed and many thousands of Italians were dead

    So, the “hug a Chinaman” thing didn’t work out for them?

    • 回复: @antibeast
  79. @Alfred

    Russia has sent much needed supplies and expertise to Italy so he would have been justified had he added a cape.

  80. @utu

    Agree. A shift from numbers of readers and commenters, to meaning and relevancy. It might be more opportune in “times of trouble” of being read by whom, then broadcasting clutter and gaining readership as the evident consequence. If unz.com is read by proportionately people in the cruxes of clusters that have de facto impact, it would then make a difference and bring prestige which is now abused by institutions including universities (the Slavoj Zizec, the bigthink.com phenomenon). It would vastly improve the shelf-life of subject and content.

    Editing and censuring, is often (always) misunderstood as a dichotomy. Ahead of the curve mirrored within an interface to the public, brings not always but disadvantages when real problems themselves project into the future (Ron Unz “three week” term anticipation warning is telling about the thinking ahead of the Coronavirus itself).

  81. @Lol

    Something about your comments tells me that you are poor and likely to remain so.

  82. @Anon

    By Fiona Lowenstein

    Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer and yoga teacher.

  83. dearieme 说:

    “These estimates are eight to ten times larger than the officially-reported Coronavirus totals for New York”: at one point the British government said that it assumed that the number infected was 10x to 20x its own official figures based on tests. That agrees pretty well with Mr Unz’s multiplier.

    • 回复: @J
  84. BuelahMan 说:

    There is no accounting for the myriad false positives in this post. Am I to believe the ones doing this tell us the truth?

    What if the test (long swab) is actually giving people the virus?

    How do we know the accuracy of the test except by believing the corrupt people giving the information (many times shown to be bogus, requiring additional tests)?

  85. Bmac 说:

    Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.

    请参见:

    他指出:

    A case fatality rate of 1% – which means that on average, every fatality at the time of their infection represents a population of one hundred.

    Given the rate of transmission, those one hundred will infect another nine hundred during the average incubation period of three weeks.

  86. @Truth3

    And how many did (((Truth3))) infect at Fort Bragg? Did he even bother to find out?

    • 巨魔: Truth3
    • 回复: @Truth3
    , @annamaria
  87. The deaths resulting from COVID-19 has surpassed 500 in the United States, therefore I must plead mea culpa, mea culpa, mea máxima culpa.

  88. @refl

    我在祈祷圣罗恩勇敢地说出真相,但他
    电晕全速前进。

    我以前写过这个。 我的大马士革时刻是 2014 年 XNUMX 月的 Kiew。
    从那时起,我就知道那些支持那件事的人会
    及时让我的国家和世界着火。
    我惊叹他们 创造力.

    这不仅仅是美国的轻信。

    Taking on an alternative neuron pathway, one can go “full Coronavirus”, and be at
    几周后相反。 这一切都在公式中。 那是两次
    正确地概念化和衡量影响。

    轻信的借口来来去去,轻信曾经,可能会因 Covid-19 的担忧而暂时加剧,然后像往常一样继续存在。 有点像股票上涨、衍生品发明主义、货币调整。 循环,但总是在那里。

    如果我们的统治者想出了这样一个中肯的 开发 of the “flu variant”, we might be far of in our estime (awe, appreciation). Our current elites of the West are not capable of coherence at that level. If they were, lets preserve them on ice, we will need them post-mortem. The next generation of the variety is going to be worse.

    25/03-2020 @ 11:31 (+01):
    上述评论作为回复,因评论频繁而被保留
    在时间范围内。 稍后发布。

  89. @NPleeze

    12 experts tend to agree with you

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Isn’t the real issue this (numerically and culturally): we have a health care system, which is obviously not made to provide services to every single American whenever they need it, 所有在同一时间, and this pandemic is likely to kill say, a million old people (given how large our overall population is), and since no one “gets” to just die (ala Soylent Green) but instead gets sick at 70, 80, etc and has to be preserved forever…so anything that “burns” through what would be an otherwise healthy population, as with all animals (including humans) historically, instead becomes such a serious risk (if not somewhat random) to the old or infirm, that we shut everything down, potentially causing all sorts of other human catastrophes so that some old folks get to choose another death (maybe the flu?) over a Covid-19 death?

    Long run on sentence, but isn’t that really what this is all about now…?

    • 同意: Marshall Lentini
    • 回复: @Marshall Lentini
  90. @NPleeze

    出色的评论。

    It’s staggering to me how they won’t make their headlines about old people being most susceptible (or the people to avoid and quarantine by force). They bury it three or four paragraphs down, if they do mention it. Pretty much the same as they bury the correlation of blacks with violent crime and everything else.

    Here in Russia, the ignorant Soviet relic babushkas are still not staying inside: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/25/why-russian-pensioners-wont-self-isolate-a69746

    The city is about to go on lock-down, possibly pursuant to Putin’s address tonight. A major economy crashed because of these ugly little gremlins.

  91. Emslander 说:

    The problem with your calculation seems to be your assumption that the morality rate is 1%. We won’t know the mortality rate until the disease has run its course. Where am I wrong?

    • 回复: @botazefa
  92. peterike 说:
    @Anon

    How about this one from the NYT:

    Hmmm, let’s look at the author.

    Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer, and yoga teacher and the founder of the queer feminist wellness collective, Body Politic.

    From her selfie, she also appears to be an Orthodox Jew, though apparently one of those classic New York breakaway (sorta) types.

    Now, did anyone from the Times validate her story? Of course they didn’t. They are desperate for stories like this. My guess is the entire thing is made up. She looks perfectly well in her few other hospital selfies on her Instagram. You think people like this wouldn’t rig those photos?

    PS – Her Instagram has a number of bikini shots. Guess what that means.

    • 回复: @OscarWildeLoveChild
  93. KenH 说:

    I’m certainly no expert and still don’t know what to believe but I do know that (((the media))) and government authorities specialize in fear mongering and misinformation. Common human coronoviruses like the common cold and some flu strains are prevalent this time of year so when someone tests positive for coronavirus is it just one of the more common coronaviruses or covid-19?

    I think health authorities are erring on the side of caution and anyone with a headache, sniffle or sore throat is immediately diagnosed with covid-19. I’m not donwplaying the dangers that covid-19 might cause but most of the deaths in Italy were people over 80 with pre-existing illnesses and therefore compromised immune systems and it sounded like covid-19 just delivered the coup de grace earlier.

    If Unz turns out to be wrong then this essay won’t age well and it will probably be scrubbed from the site.

  94. Biff 说:
    @NPleeze

    I’m disappointed you did not select the picture where he is protecting a child from a polar bear with one hand while curing 25 sick COVID-19 patients with the other, all while giving a speech on civics and patriotic duty to the rest of his grateful people.

    He happens to be the best Statesman on the Planet, and the leader of the free world, so cut him some slack – give some time, and he’ll get it done…

  95. @Realist

    Unlike the Chinese Flu Y2K was real. A few million people spent a bunch of years mitigating it. I was one of them.

    • 回复: @Realist
    , @Lars Porsena
  96. I’m with “cortesar”, this article is panic mongering. Supposing the one million deaths is true, for a moment. That’s 0.3% of the population, and overwhelmingly of the elderly and ill. That’s the greatest disaster since the Civil War? Really?

    Not that “one million” is credible. In an era when most peer-reviewed “science” is garbage, when a “woman” can be in possession of a penis and race is a social construct, Mr Unz wants us to believe NYT science reports? I expect hysterical and innumerate appeals to emotion from mainstream journalism, but seeing it on this site is a disappointment.

  97. So lets all freak out, act like a bunch of damn fools, and destroy the entire freakin’ global economy.
    This crap was released by Fort Detrick sometime prior to August 2019.
    The CDC totally shut down the US Military’s main bio-lab at Fort Detrick, Maryland, due to an absence of safeguards against pathogen leakages, issuing a complete “cease and desist” order to the military.
    I swear my wife and I contacted this crap in early November of 2019 year. It was bad but we survived without a trip to the doctor. I also know many people who suffered many of the same symptoms at the same time.
    For those of you freaking out, suffering with allergy symptoms which are common for this time of year, hurry on down and get yo Covid19 test. Just be aware that it is really pretty much a waste of time.

    Results are for the identification of 2019-nCoV RNA. The 2019-nCoV RNA is generally detectable in upper and lower respiratory specimens during infection. Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease.

    As Russ Winter states:

    This allows the authorities to load and bunch coronavirus in with other infections and illnesses that are the real cause of a death or a recovery. The vast majority of Covid-19 cases are recoveries. 80% of the time it is asymptomatic or mild.

    https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/03/the-tom-hanks-coronavirus-story-has-telltale-signs-of-psyop/
    A closer look at Potential False-Positive Rate Among the ‘Asymptomatic Infected Individuals’ in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients

    Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR1x58i9MUS16isOtdzAOJHr1TZNpVz4kw-6S5mtyRG_MUg3XVK_RajavAI

  98. Anonymous[502]• 免责声明 说:

    Correctly Counting Deck Chairs on Titanic

    vs

    Correctly Counting Lifeboats on Titanic

    Which is this?

  99. @Trinity

    “I call BULLSHIT.”

    Furthermore, the variable Ron and others don’t take into account: there are five discrete strains of this disease, some measurably more potent than others. This is why an 80-year-old reports it wasn’t that bad for her, while a 38-year-old Olympian dies in a week. So do you have the Italian strain, or the Connecticut strain?

    Everything about this event screams manipulation and disinformation.

    • 同意: 9/11 Inside job, Richard B
    • 回复: @Popeye
  100. A123 说:

    The difficulty with looking at these numbers in the short-term are major differences between nations and regions, such as:

    -1- Inability to test. Lack of kits, labs, etc…
    -2- Inaccuracy of test. Problematic swabbing for obtaining a WUHAN-19 sample.
    -3- Unwillingness to share results.
    -4- Intentionally misreporting results for political gain.

    China has #3 and the public is not accepting fake CCP numbers. This is likely to kick off a full confessional investigation. (3)

    “There is no doubt that China’s unconscionable decision to orchestrate an elaborate coverup of the wide-ranging and deadly implications of coronavirus led to the death of thousands of people, including hundreds of Americans and climbing,” Stefanik added. “This Resolution calls for China to provide compensation for the harm, loss, and destruction their arrogance brought upon the rest of the world. Simply put China must, and will, be held accountable.”

    Trump Derangement Syndrome [TDS] causes most Democrats and media outlets to intentionally deceive #4 on all topics. Despite the global threat from WUHAN-19, massive lies have been told. Read the full TOP 10 list: (4)

    It’s troubling to see how quickly disinformation about the government’s response to the coronavirus has spread. Democrats and the mainstream media have willingly spread false information in the hopes of damaging Trump politically before the election in November.

    … Trump’s approval numbers for his handling of the pandemic have gone up.

    8. Trump “dissolved” the WH pandemic response office

    This claim spread like wildfire, even though it was 完全错误. Days after WaPo ran the piece, they published another article by Tim Morrison, former senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense on the National Security Council, who debunked the allegation made by … former Obama administration officials.

    6. Trump cut funding to the CDC & NIH

    … steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness,” but, they note, “that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump.”

    Thanks to DNC incompetence and the Media’s transparent malice, Trump’s 2nd term is effectively guaranteed.

    和平😷
    _______

    (3) https://www.nationalreview.com/news/hawley-stefanik-introduce-bill-to-investigate-china-for-coronavirus-coverup/

    (4) https://ninetymilesfromtyranny.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-top-10-lies-about-president-trumps.html

    (4) Alternate link: https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-top-10-lies-about-president-trumps-response-to-the-coronavirus/

  101. Saggy 说: • 您的网站
    @joe webb

    You can google up several papers on the subject, apparently the best method is to use UV light … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html
    I just ordered a UV sterilization box from Amazon or Ebay (can’t remember), you need to check that it’s shipped from the US as most are shipped from China and take a while. The other easily available method is heat, but here it’s difficult to determine the time/temp parameters … https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0186217

  102. Tom Verso 说:

    Dr. Neil Ferguson of Britain, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists. According to Dr. Ferguson the “best case” scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill over a million Americans.

    A million dead Californians by early summer…

    I have see untold number articles using various statistical methods based on various 假设 to infer various conclusions about the SPREAD of the virus.

    A statistical naiveté, frankly, they bring to mind Herman Hesse’s novel “The Glass Bead Game … Magister Ludi”. 但这就是我。

    However, what I have not come across is many discussions of the most important issue with the virus …死因.

    It seems that once again in the assumptions department, when a person dies with the virus the 假设 by the Magister Ludi’s is that the virus is the 死因 without the regard to the various other death causing illnesses that the unfortunate person may have.

    We do not attribute the cause of death to the Flu when the patient has Cancer.

    It seems that Italy is seriously reevaluating their Virus mortality statistics based on the underling mortal conditions of the passed patient. (Sorry I can’t provide a link. I’m overwhelmed with Virus articles read)

  103. 感染人数 = 死亡人数 / Mortality_Rate *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)。

    It might be very difficult to estimate two of the factors:

    Mortality Rate. Knowing this requires knowing the total number of cases that existed when the dead on any given day contracted the virus. Have we really known this with any accuracy at any time? If we haven’t really known how many cases existed at any given time, then how can we know the mortality rate?

    Doubling Period. Related to the above. Plus, the accounting of total cases becomes more effective as more tests are mass produced and used. We find more because we have more tools to do it. Thus the Doubling Period factor is confounded by increasingly sensitive measurement of one of its own factors, total cases at any given time.

    It seems hard to get any hands on this. It’s like a greased pig.

    • 回复: @Buzz Mohawk
  104. @NPleeze

    This is what it seems like to me, from a statistical point of view. It’s a regular virus making it’s way through a population, granted, it appears more contagious than many (at least of those that are more harmful). It causes a lot of unpleasant effects on otherwise healthy people under the age of say, 60, but it can be deadly for folks over 60, 70, 80, and since little Jimmy might be a “carrier”, we have to protect some random 75 year old from the chain of connections that might bring little Jimmy’s contagion to the nursing home door–which I get, as far as scare factor. Oh, and by the way, little Jimmy may be a rich, liberal skier in his 50s.

    On that note, does anyone expect the rich and famous to forever give up skiing and golf?

  105. Desert Fox 说:

    Bill Gates helped fund an event on October 18, 2019, called Event 201 Novel Coronavirus Pandemic Preparedness EXERCISE, they created coronavirus as a bioweapon and released it in China and America and Italy and elsewhere, these are the NWO promoters in action ie Operation Gladio on a world wide scale.

  106. UK 说:

    You want to be the first nerd Caudillo but you forget that people have agency.

    While I personally believe that the infection rate is certainly much higher than stated (and the mortality rate is far lower), it is likely that people’s own actions, rather than government direction, will have been the key factor in mitigating the spread of this disease.

  107. @Trinity

    We could lose a billion worldwide to red chinese sniffles and still be fine.

    Mr. Unz may not realize yet, the actions taken by evil global powers are not tied to 任何 numbers, nor reality.

    #冠状病毒

  108. antibeast 说:
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    So, the “hug a Chinaman” thing didn’t work out for them?

    That was in Florence not Lombardy which is the hardest hit.

  109. @ R. Unz:

    R. Unz says: “Under these circumstances, it would be extremely inadvisable for President Trump or other government officials to rescind any of their lockdown or quarantine decisions until at least three weeks had gone by and the impact of these policies upon the rate of infection became fully apparent.”

    Total garbage! [However if the idiotic , totalitarian governors of the [21?] states who have enforced quarantines on citizens of their states want to continue to enforce their idiotic, anti-market , pro-slavery lockdowns on their similarly idiotic citizens then so be it. Its their 10th amendment right, after all.Sooner or later they’ll all pay the economic and political price,hopefully, for their own rank stupidity .]

    Trump [if he has any sense whatsoever], needs to stop listening to his various scumbag “advisors”, and do a “complete 180” on this ,[ ie “everyone can work or self quarantine- its the individuals sole decision to do so or not, and no-one elses”] , and at the same time deny any/all newly created [out of thin air] federal money to these scumbag commie state governors and their sycophants, all of whom stand to directly financially benefit from the bailouts/handouts, 不能 their slave populations , who will only “gain” less freedom, and even more slavery for themselves.

    However,[I remind myself] “stupid is as stupid does”, and so Mr Unz, most likely Trump will proceed almost exactly as you deem necessary to be “in the best interests of society”, from your own ivory tower position “on high”.

    不用了,无生子

  110. George 说:

    I don’t understand why 30 and under individuals are being ‘locked down’. They are under the least danger and society needs them to develop immunity as fast as possible and AFAIK are in the least if not no danger from Covid. There are already violent confrontations with police.

    2017 box scores
    there were 2,813,503 total deaths
    慢性下呼吸道疾病:160,201
    流感和肺炎:55,672

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

    I guess the test case is going to be Sweden, which is apparently not shutting down and many third world countries that can’t.

    • 回复: @jbwilson24
  111. @Buzz Mohawk

    Addendum: The equation thus seems to possibly be tautological or circular. If the denominator Mortality Rate cannot be known without knowing how many infected existed at any given time, then the whole equation relies on its own result to achieve its result. How is that supposed to work?

  112. Realist 说:
    @James Scott

    Unlike the Chinese Flu Y2K was real. A few million people spent a bunch of years mitigating it. I was one of them.

    If it took years to mitigate…it wasn’t much of a problem. I worked for a large corporation at the time…they were in a panic. January 1st 2000 not one problem.

    Your comment is bullshit.

    • 同意: Tor597
    • 回复: @James N. Kennett
  113. Popeye 说:
    @NPleeze

    From my observations over the years it seems that mold growth can be exponential. Especially in warm condition ideally humid . Mold on orange or lemon left on table in warm humid environment. Day one the mold growth is smaller than grain of rice. In a few days as big as dime..then half dollar etc. Until orange is fully mold…unless removed from table top for disposal

    • 回复: @Alfred
  114. refl 说:
    @UncommonGround

    The Spiegel is the news outlet that had a report on a pro-Trump smalltown somewher in rural America invented whole cloth. The author had earned prices for his writing and when it came out, his name entered the German language as synonym for outright lying in journalism.

    Someone else pointed to articles in Newsweek.

    Sorry, but I left the mainstream media behind precisely because they were lying to me, right?

    I am not in for emotional stories but for background and statistics. And as long as in the background there are serious points to the contrary and as long as I see that the real agenda is something completely different, I do not swallow this. Civil liberties are being trashed across the western world in a second and everyone in fear consents to it. At the same time, the death tolls just do not match the level of hysteria that is being raised.

    If you want to make me believe in Corona, you better come up with something more substantial.

    • 同意: CanSpeccy
  115. Goldman Gives CEO 20% Raise-

    While Forecasting Major CoronaVirus-Caused Financial Crash for Americans

    • 谢谢: Agent76
  116. Anon[369]• 免责声明 说:

    So weird who’s contracting it.

    Ali Asghar Mounesan – (Iran) Minister of Cultural Heritage

    Reza Rahmani – (Iran) Minister of Industry

    Mojtaba Zonnour- (Iran) Head of Iranian Parliament National Security & Foreign Affairs Committee

    Iraj Harirchi- (Iran) (Died from virus) – Deputy Health Minister

    Hadi Khosroshahi – (Iran)(Died from virus) Cleric & Diplomat. Ambassador to the Vatican

    Masoumeh Ebtekar – (Iran) Vice President for Women & Family Affairs

    Ali Akbar Velayati – (Iran) Head of Tehran’s Masih Daneshvari Hospital

    Mohammad Mirmohammadi (Iran)(Died from virus) – Senior advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    • 回复: @UK
  117. @James Scott

    There was a real Y2k and a fake Y2k.

    Only the people who fixed the minor, real Y2k or understand that it was fixed by about 1996 know about it. It was a potential program glitch that would have affected a bunch of bank mainframes had it not been caught a decade early.

    For everyone else, they are talking about the fake Y2k, the one you saw on TV where the planes fall out of the sky, the milk curdles 100 years before it comes out of the cow, and your DVD player rises up in rebellion against you. The only way to survive it was to buy the \$200 Y2k survival kit being hocked by the media’s self-appointed computer expert.

  118. UK 说:

    Wuhan was locked down for 2 months. We should probably prepare for similar in the absence of treatment or better data emerging. Trump is selling it as 18 days so that people comply better.

    • 回复: @UK
  119. @Lol

    So countries with high Corona death rate might economically profit, while countries with low Corona death rate might suffer.

  120. Popeye 说:
    @Nancy Pelosi's Latina Maid

    Well I was diagnosed with bronchitis in mid November 2019. It knocked the hell outta me for two months. Always tired, no energy, [电子邮件保护] hrs per day the first month. I’m almost 70. Now looking back I wonder was the bronchitis really corinavirus19?

  121. RT Rider 说:
    @niteranger

    I read Taleb’s newest paper, yesterday, concerning the “Fat Tail” of this pandemic. He and his coauthor conclude that it’s, at a minimum, a sub-exponential distribution and therefore, the majority, if not all, of the epidemiology models in use today are useless as predictors.

    • 回复: @dearieme
  122. @NPleeze

    疯狂程度令人难以置信!

    Is it? Really? It seems like par for the course to me.

    As I mentioned in a Sailer thread, the folks who decided our fate are disproportionately affluent and aged. They’re also self-entitled Boomers. They don’t give a shit if younger generations go bankrupt, become homeless, die of starvation, neglect, or despair. They don’t have paycheck-to-paycheck jobs, they can relax in second homes by the beach, desert, or mountains with few worries except that younger folks might be enjoying life while they’re not. So by all means lock down everyone and everything else to protect our national treasure – the Boomer.

    • 同意: Marshall Lentini
  123. @OscarWildeLoveChild

    我就是这样看的。

    One of those scientists almost puts his finger on it:

    “But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.”

    Easy: people are more sensitive, egoistic, and fearful of death than ever. Including those who probably should have died decades ago.

    And another, farther down, mentions Facebook as a culprit of the hysteria.

    • 回复: @Johnny Smoggins
  124. George 说:

    Mexico joins Sweden in admitting enforcing a lockdown will not be easy. I wonder if the modeling that is supposedly driving the ‘science’ takes into account widespread violation of lock downs.

    Coronavirus advice from Mexico’s president: ‘Live life as usual’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-advice-from-mexicos-president-live-life-as-usual

  125. refl 说:
    @Sokrates

    I have made similar experiences in my place. Observe this over the coming days and weeks.
    You will adapt to the rules simply not to run into trouble for just trying to make your regular shopping. Also you might not want to alarm people, as they are hyper-sensitive.

    The shopping facilities will shortly find more regular ways to organize this, and the attendants are really in a shitty situation: They might believe the story or not, but for them the most imbecile protection methods are mandatorily pushed through by their employer.

    Besides, fear of an invisible disease affects people in their innermost sphere. A huge number of people in our societies are hyper attentive to cleanliness. Tell them that their mental issue now is mandatory behaviour for all, and they will freak out whenever you overstep their rules.

    All of a sudden, new and embarrasing rituals are forced upon our societies.

    Observe this and learn how dictatorships get started.

    • 回复: @Marshall Lentini
    , @Sokrates
  126. UK 说:
    @UK

    However, here is a potential clue better data:

    http://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-uk-population-according-to-experts/amp/

    Essentially, Coronavirus is a hysteria and half of the UK has already been infected with very limited illnesses.

    • 回复: @UK
  127. Alfred 说:
    @NPleeze

    The envy of people who hate Putin is remarkable. 🙂

    Tell us of one single other international statesman in the world today. Someone who started his career as president with such a poor hand. And in opposition to what was the greatest power in the world.

    Love him or hate him, but you must respect him.

    • 同意: Buzz Mohawk, Biff
    • 回复: @Marshall Lentini
  128. Agent76 说:

    20年2020月100日,令人震惊!…通过CDC…截至周五,本季节美国的流感死亡人数是冠状病毒死亡人数的XNUMX倍

    根据美国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)每周流感报告,与上周相比,流感死亡人数增加了1,000。 根据全球冠状病毒追踪者的资料,本周美国的冠状病毒死亡人数增加了218人。

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-via-the-cdc-as-of-friday-there-are-100-times-as-many-flu-deaths-in-us-this-season-than-coronavirus-deaths/

    4年2019月201日,事件4大流行演习:第XNUMX部分,交流讨论和结尾视频

    事件201是约翰霍普金斯大学健康安全中心举办的大流行性桌面演习。 演习说明了为减少严重流行病的大规模经济和社会后果而需要进行的流行病防范工作。

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  129. @Trinity

    I’m a basement-dwelling euphoric atheist so I don’t know many people period.

    My mom knows someone who has it.

    • 回复: @Popeye
  130. jbwilson24 说:

    大问题之一是数据的可靠性。 要计算死亡人数,您需要估计有多少人感染了病毒,以及有多少人因此死亡。 这两个都是非常困难的问题,第一个是因为测试是参差不齐的并且带有固有的系统误差。 第二个原因是合并症以及将其他病毒导致的死亡归因于这一疾病的可能性。

    I’m simply not convinced at all. The amount of hysteria and panic is utterly disproportionate to the number of deaths. For this amount of panic I would expect hundreds of thousands of dead in the USA alone. Until then it looks like a giant nothingburger.

    Perhaps it will get there, but I highly doubt it. I’m more worried about what the vultures are doing behind the scenes to ‘not let a crisis go to waste’.

    PS:每年有超过 200,000 名美国人死于可预防的医疗错误。 有没有人对此感到恐慌,即使其中许多错误比病毒更容易消除?

    • 同意: Liza
    • 回复: @Popeye
    , @Poupon Marx
    , @Anonymous
  131. Truth3 说:
    @Commentator Mike

    What a total asshole you are.

    I didn’t infect anybody.

    As to your highly misplaced echos… stick em up your ass.

    Pitchfork is ready for you asshole.

    • 回复: @Commentator Mike
  132. Alfred 说:
    @UncommonGround

    The lungs are progressively taken by the virus so that it doesn’t work anymore properly until the patient dies. It’s really not nice.

    Whoever said that a “natural” death was nice? Ever watch someone die as their organs began to fail one after another?

    The nicest death that I can think of is a drug overdose with something like fentanyl.

    • 回复: @Wielgus
    , @ThreeCranes
  133. jbwilson24 说:
    @George

    “I guess the test case is going to be Sweden, which is apparently not shutting down”

    I believe the Swedes are afraid of what might happen if they try to enforce ‘stay at home’ policies in Malmo, Rosengard and other immigrant-heavy regions. They can simply look at St Denis in Paris and see police battling with mobs of brown and black males.

    To have that occur in Sweden would lead the public to realize that the third world masses are ungovernable, and hence 180 degrees from the compliant, herd-like Swedish natives.

    So Sweden will do nothing, hoping that the growing number of riots over the last few years (e.g., Norrköping and Borlänge) will not metastasize into a large scale uprising.

  134. kaiser 说:

    Coronavirus “covid 19” is a weapon of mass panic disinformation. From almost nowhere the epidemic has spread followed up by relentless coverage of “opinions” made mostly by an ignorant presstitudes, equally ignorant government officials and in a small number of virologists or MD’s.
    Seems like a classic “conspiracy theory”, doesn’t? I thought so, until the governments have announced, that you don’t have to pay your taxes right away, that your expired driver licences are still OK and you do not have to rush to renew, that you are going to receive substantial amount of money to help you to survive. Governments do not forgo taxes? Which leads to conclusion (another Conspiracy” theory), the governments know about the covid 19 virus and its origins much more they are telling us

  135. I have a question for all you who say, “Well, most of those who died were afflicted with some precondition.”

    还等什么?

    Corona was still the proximate cause. The precondition itself (themselves) were not enough, in themselves, to have brought about the person’s death. So what difference does it make. The person still died, basically, from Corona.

    The other day I wrote a comment in which I had calculated the rate of expansion of the virus from the data available on the Worldometer website. I calculated, using the standard e^rt formula we all learned in Calculus, the rate of spread and the death rate of the virus. I finished with the comment that they tracked one another (not lineally) which shows some correlation. Not really a profound insight but it left me wondering.

    If both those were correlated, then rate of infection would be as well. Again, not lineally, but related by some non lineal factor. The problem is, as virtually everyone has pointed out, what is that factor? It’s the huge unknown that makes a mockery of all of our projections. Why take all these extreme measures if the number of infected is high relative to deaths? And if deaths are high relative to infections then shouldn’t we be taking even more extreme measures?

    Others have pointed out that spread is somewhat self limiting since our circle of contacts is fixed and the pool of available potential victims is not unlimited. Initially, spread is very fast but as time passes, more and more people have been exposed and the pool diminishes. So a simple equation of exponential growth will not do or apply for the duration of the plague. But it has spread to the world, far beyond China and italy, so there are plenty of available victims.

    So some attempt must be made to estimate the rate of infection. We can be confident that since death rate and rate of admission to hospitals follow regular, related curves, that there are sensible criteria for determining who is admitted and that we are getting decent data. So in principle, Ron’s approach should reveal some useful information and even if he didn’t nail it, hopefully his attempt will inspire others to use their resources and apply a similar reasoning.

    • 回复: @refl
  136. UK 说:
    @UK

    Here’s the model showing how half of the UK is infected and herd immunity is almost achieved.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

    • 回复: @Tor597
  137. @Alfred

    His showboating amounts to dick.

    • 哈哈: Alfred
    • 回复: @ploni almoni
  138. @refl

    All of a sudden, new and embarrasing rituals are forced upon our societies

    Get ready for snitching. “先生, we heard you’ve been coughing lately. Where have you been in the last ninety days, 先生?“

    • 哈哈: refl
  139. Alfred 说:
    @Popeye

    Until orange is fully mold…unless removed from table top for disposal

    Eaten?

  140. That is great Ron, but now we have the TrumpCure!

    https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/doctor-treated-350-coronavirus-patients-100-success/

    • 回复: @lavoisier
  141. Popeye 说:
    @jbwilson24

    Regarding your P.S… that’s a fair question to raise with Bernie the crusty curmudgeon and other advocates of Medicare for all.. I’d assume these @200k preventable deaths will not occur…if anyone is taking bets.

  142. Liza 说:
    @Pft

    Oh, don’t worry! Everyone will avoid the implications of what the Italian advisor said with a precision that has to be deliberate. Not to mention the unreliability of the tests in the first place.

    Soon enough, I suspect, all will be in complete financial and social chaos, and number of deaths from depression and hopelessness induced by the official response to this disease will exceed the number dead “from or with” Covid 19. But keep up the social distancing anyway. And let’s not forget to tattle on everyone who was instructed to remain housebound but had the nerve to go for a little walk around the block.

  143. In area where I am living all eggs disappeared from shelves.
    Anybody of you experts know what is the explanation? I do have some idea that eggs have some connection to viruses.

    任何人?

    • 回复: @Rich
  144. Popeye 说:
    @AnonFrogger

    Opossum make great pets and roommates for basement dwellers. My oldest son, when he couldn’t take the old man’s interference when he was 17, moved into a small utility room by the basement and furnace. Leaving out his fast food wrappers and old potato chip bags he quickly had a family of opossum roommates. They moved out after crapping on his pillow, him cleaning up the fast food wrappers, and decided to find a studio apartment. Then he left the screen door open one day and some raccoons took over again for the fast food leftovers. Of course you can holler at opossum but best not get upset with raccoons unless you have exit strategy and Plan B.

  145. glib 说:

    This whole article can be shot down easily.

    1) with new cases already declining, italy’s mortality rate appears to have not increased

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/death-rate

    accounting tricks such as assigning every death with a positive test to covid have, effectively, reassigned normal (cancer, diabetes, etc.) deaths to covid. Italy is, what, 3 weeks ahead of us?

    2) Europe is possibly two weeks ahead of us. No change in mortality rate as of week 11

    http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

    Anyhow, doomsayers, think of the wonderful opportunity. If 100% of the population is affected by Covid, no one will die of cancer! A great victory for mankind.

    More seriously, prediction: if there is a reliable site reporting total deaths in the US, it will show no increase in two weeks. Although there are limitations to this prediction, since flu waves hit earlier or later every year, so year-to-year comparisons always a small decline or increase, due precisely to the flu, which thins thing is.

    • 回复: @glib
    , @Will
    , @James N. Kennett
  146. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @Trinity

    Some doc on the Brit NHS today said that those who survive will have 20-per cent lung damage.

    • 回复: @ploni almoni
  147. Anon[200]• 免责声明 说:
    @UncommonGround

    Germany kicks butt. German scientists were the first to come up with a test kit for coronavirus on Jan. 17, merely 5 days after China released the genome sequence. They gave it to the WHO for the whole world to replicate for free. In the US, our CDC decided to make their own test, took them 3 weeks to finally come up with a test, the initial test kits were faulty and resulted in many false negatives. The time lag to finally get the test kit right contributed to the community spread in the Seattle area.

    Being the first to come up with accurate testing means Germany started their testing early and widely. This article in the Seattle Times yesterday talked about how they achieved such a low mortality rate – through early widespread testing, contract tracing and isolation:
    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/why-germanys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-so-much-lower-than-other-countries-rates/

    Germany’s Bayer was also the company that discovered the malaria drug cloroquine. They do not have the rights to sell this drug in the US, but immediately after Trump said it’s been found to be helpful, Bayer donated 3 million cloroquine pills to the US; compare this to the only drug company in the US with the right to sell this drug, a company in NJ, which immediately raised their prices. Think they are owned by ((( xx )))?

    Hitler was right about his people, they are the best race.

    • 同意: Zarathustra
    • 回复: @ThreeCranes
    , @Rich
  148. UK 说:
    @Anon

    简单回答:

    60% of Iranians have had it.

    Important politicians get tested.

    Also mild cases are usually false negatives.

    Deaths during outbreak get attributed to it simply because it is present.

    3 random deaths out of 60% of people connected to politics in a gerontocracy over a space of months is probable.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

  149. Mr. Unz, what would your prognostications look like if you didn’t lump NYC with Upstate?

    We Upstaters are very weary of being chained to that malignant downstate tumor known as NYC.

    https://syracusecom.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=c927d20b0e024193af82cd8795429c1c&extent=-79.4269,41.5579,-73.5767,44.198&zoom=true&scale=false&legend=true&disable_scroll=true&theme=light

  150. follyofwar 说:
    @NPleeze

    I agree with everything you said except for the part about “global martial law” being “unsustainable.” The globalists now have high-tech tools they never had before, and the younger people, like sheep to the slaughter, have been dumbed down, with many encouraging lockdowns. There will, of course, be pockets of resistance, but governments have most of the guns. And, since the corporate/government media complex controls the flow of information, they just won’t report it. Exactly like, with few exceptions, they no longer report on US wars and how many “enemy” are killed.

  151. Trinity 说:

    Yesterday I ventured into Walmart to shop with the other local deplorable people that the elite child molesters, sexual perverts, and sociopaths out in Hollyweird, NYC and Washington like to look down on. Wasn’t that crowded and I probably noticed about 10 customers “suited and booted” wearing various masks of different shapes and styles and latex gloves. Speaking of “suited and booted”, shouldn’t these people be wearing one of those full body suits and booties over their shoes as well? I mean this virus could very well get on their clothes if they brush up against something and if this thing is that deadly couldn’t it also get on their shoes like dog poo? Anyhow, I made it point to talk to the normal people who dressed like normal civilians and shared a laugh with a couple. It was refreshing to note that the people I talked to had the same mindset as me about this HOAX. But alas, I expect to see more and more sheeple don their superhero outfits to go and pick up that gallon of milk.

    smdh and WAITING for when the truth comes out or WHEN America goes on LOCKDOWN, FOOD RATIONS, MAJORITY OF AMERICA GOES ON THE DOLE, ETC., ETC. The Jew World Order is salivating right now. Me, I’m about to go make me some banana pancakes and then do my home workout since the local mom and pop gym finally closed its doors. Corona-Corona-Corona = Russia-Russia-Russia = WMD = 9-11 and the 5 dancing Shlomos = a whole lotta Rosie. Wonder if this will help or hurt Corona beer sales? Next Halloween, I plan on dressing up as the Corona Virus. Trick or Treat.

  152. @Popeye

    You will never know , as there is no valid or accurate test for the flu a/k/a Coronavirus/COVID-19,all the statistics being spouted by the massmedia,WHO and the CDC about the “pandemic” are nothing but lies .Former employees of both the WHO and CDC have accused them of corruption and the CDC and its foundation have purposely exaggerated the number of flu deaths in order to sell the vaccine in which they are said to have a financial interest . As Ron Paul has written it’s “The Coronavirus hoax”ronpaulinstitute.org

    • 同意: Desert Fox, Trinity
  153. 冠状病毒的流行可能很快就会造成美国自 150 多年前内战以来最大的灾难,而数字揭示了可能的严重程度。

    The current data out of China, and Wuhan in particular, suggest otherwise. They have closed all 19 temporary hospitals set up there to treat the coronavirus infections. The only way you can believe a minimum of one million Americans will die from the coronavirus is to believe that these figures from Hubei province have been falsified in some way.

    中国湖北
    确认:67,801
    死亡人数:3,163
    回收的:60,811
    Existing: 3,827

    Nevertheless, your figures are very sobering.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
    , @Polymath
  154. @peterike

    I posted this on another thread. How does a hospital, especially in these times, allow a non-sterile phone to be taken into any environment where she or others are sick, so that she can take a selfie with oxygen tubes shoved up her nostrils.

  155. Desert Fox 说:
    @Agent76

    Agree totally, these satanic bastards created and released the coronavirus bioweapon on humanity, if there was any justice in the world they would be subjected to a new Nuremberg Trial of all involved in the crime against humanity.

    • 同意: Trinity
    • 回复: @Agent76
  156. follyofwar 说:
    @niteranger

    When considering what the authorities, both medical and political, are constantly telling us about how deadly this pandemic is, I think back to my college Statistics course of nearly 50 years ago. On the first day of class the professor told the old joke that “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” I’m sure most who read here have heard of that bromide, but it is still well to keep it in mind. Don’t forget, most have an agenda.

    • 谢谢: Liza
  157. Anon[217]• 免责声明 说:

    Anybody else remember those breathless media reports of masses of teenagers getting respitory infections and even dying of vaping related lung illnesses back in September and October? The descriptions of popcorn lungs, etc?
    What happened to that? What was that and why has it seemingly dissapeared? Or was it an early form of whats out there now? That was one of the stranger medical stories Ive read.

  158. glib 说:
    @glib

    This is the Euro mortality map for last week. I assume they highlight by standard deviations. Italy shows no excess. What is the weekly death rate in Italy? On average about 6000/day, higher in late winter every year. the square root of 6000X7 is about 200. If I read this table right, there have been less than 600 extra deaths in Italy this week. Compare with the winter 2014-2015, when there were 54,000 extra deaths for the whole winter, so some 3000/week.

    http://www.euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html

    • 谢谢: Alfred
    • 回复: @glib
    , @Old fogey
    , @glib
  159. Anonymous[107]• 免责声明 说:
    @Weston Waroda

    中国湖北
    确认:67,801
    死亡人数:3,163
    回收的:60,811
    Existing: 3,827

    Lies, lies and statistics, esp. when coming from any third world country. Multiply each of these numbers by at least 10 and you’ll get a more accurate picture.

    The only way to prevent future pandemics, and to keep this one from worsening, is this:

    Ground all international flights for at least 60 days.

  160. @utu

    I’m wanting to understand you correctly here when you speak of “reality that matters.”

    Are you referring to a thing like skin colour which is a category of nature, an instance of reality, but one which “does not matter” in the sense of being of no moral import? Or do you mean that reality is man-made and imposed by the powerful whose imposition “matters”?

  161. botazefa 说:
    @NPleeze

    You are understandably questioning the US Covid-19 death counts.

    但…

    What if the unfortunate victim has both a SARS-CoV2 positive test *和* dies of Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome?

    My understanding is that in the US those are being counted as Covid-19 deaths.

    Rightly so. ARDS is pretty rare and not caused by cold or flu. I used to be a respiratory therapist and I only saw ARDS a few times in approximately 10 years.

    I think the death counts in the US are valid because of the ARDS component.

    • 回复: @lavoisier
  162. botazefa 说:
    @Emslander

    We don’t have to wait till the disease has run its course – just until we get a statistically significant sample size. And good data.

  163. Desert Fox 说:

    请到网站 谣言米尔新闻网 and scroll down to the headline, did Bill Gates and World Economic Forum predict coronavirus outbreak, click on this headline which takes you to the youtube video, click on the youtube link and watch the 18 minute video, that reveals they knew they were going to release the coronavirus, this video was made on October 18, 2019.

    • 谢谢: Trinity
  164. Observator 说:
    @refl

    I found this interesting meditation on the subject of age and epidemic this morning, written by a man my age https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/25/looking-past-the-pandemic/

  165. Sean 说:

    53 new Coronavirus deaths, bringing the total to 210. This suggests that the true number of new infections that day may have been over 50,000

    I think that is out by an order of magnitude. The German testing has probably got closest to the truth. In Germany each day the new cases average out at very, very roughly 1% of deaths. However the thousand infections per death a day projection is a necessary stimulant to action, so nice job (better without ‘…that parameter this figure…’ though). “Real power is – I don’t even want to use the word – fear.” – Donald Trump, March 2016

  166. dearieme 说:
    @RT Rider

    Thank God you didn’t give us a link. That’s saved ten minutes of my life.

  167. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @UncommonGround

    As I write this,Brit Sky News has just announced that 21-year old Chloe Middelton has died from the virus,the youngest victim thus far.I live in Europe and I wish that some of the morons denying the existence of this threat were at ground zero in Italy or Spain.In Bergamo the crematorium can no longer cope and the army has been called in to move dozens of coffins to other areas.The crematorium in Bergamo at full capacity 24 hours a day can cremate 25 bodies.As of March 19th there were 93 Corona deaths in Bergamo and counting.As of March 19th five Italian doctors and 13 medics have lost their lives with 2,629 health workers infected,or 8,3 per cent.Twelve priests have died comforting the sick.

  168. Wielgus 说:
    @Alfred

    George Orwell’s article How The Poor Die noted that many “natural” deaths are unpleasant to watch and no doubt experience. In hospital in France (Orwell himself had poor health and died relatively young) he recalled an old man dying of kidney failure who would regularly call out je pisse (‘I am pissing’) to demand a bottle or chamber pot from the nurses. Orwell reckoned je pisse was probably the last thing the man said.

  169. @utu

    Maybe the models don’t matter. At this stage, Nassim Taleb’s assessment seems right:

    … when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

    The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative threat.

    Some here have said that the economic cost of a lockdown or other measures that severely impact the economy exceeds the value of the lives saved. But what is that economic cost, in reality? People putting off buying a house or a car by six months or a year, resulting in an unrecoverable loss of GDP? But so what? What important difference does that make?

  170. Polymath 说:

    It is a damned shame that so many people here are invincibly ignorant of math.

    In a Western country, you can’t hide massive increases in the number of dead people. No one is offering any actual EXPLANATION of the increases other than that
    1) COVID killed them
    2) COVID degraded the medical system so they died of something they would otherwise not have died from

    COVID is the only explanation. In country after country, city after city, we have witnessed the SAME phenomenon of “rapid increase in severe respiratory ailments filling up the hospitals”.

    If you say this is not due to a contagious illness affecting the respiratory system, then you are something very bad and I don’t care if the bad thing is that you are an idiot or a parrot or a puppet or a troll or a shill or an enemy, I am not going to take anything you say seriously from this point on.

    Whether it is much more prevalent and therefore much less fatal than had been thought is a possibility we will know the truth or falsity of for sure in a few weeks, depending on how the statistics go, but we DON’T know if yet and acting on the wish that it be true could cause incalculable harm. We can afford to stay home for a few weeks until we know more about what’s safe.

    • 同意: ThreeCranes, James N. Kennett
    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
    , @Alfred
    , @Kratoklastes
  171. @Truth3

    I don’t mean intentionally. But haven’t you noticed that they’re trying to trace everyone who anybody who suspects they may have had Covid-19 was in contact with? If I am wrong about you I’m willing to apologise.

    • 回复: @Truth3
  172. botazefa 说:
    @gfhÄndel

    固体。

    Glad you mentioned ARDS. This is the component that laypeople don’t understand.

  173. Polymath 说:
    @Weston Waroda

    Huh? A death to recovery ratio of 1 to 20 is obviously compatible with “1 million Americans dying”, there are 330 million Americans. How can you give numbers which totally contradict your words? Are you an idiot?

    • 回复: @Weston Waroda
  174. Has anyone stopped to ask what a “virus” actually IS?? Viruses are NOT alive and can NOT be transferred from one person to another. They exist in blood cells to assist the white cells in doing battle against foreign invaders. Please see German Dr. Stefan Lanka Phd Virologist.

    I’m amazed to see such a collapse in fortitude when governmental institutions begin throwing numbers around over matters they can’t fully explain, but the majority of the population falls right in line with known liars, thieves and killers, just astounding!!

    Have we learned nothing over the last 5 decades that lies and deception are the name of the game, yet somehow become astonished & stupid to fall for the same hoaxes over and over again?? This time there was no controlled demolition or so-called crematoria sites, all they had to do this time was unleash the media full-blast FEAR PORN!! Like good Goy we lock ourselves inside nice and tight!

  175. Another reminder that they are lying to us:”Coronavirus Doctor Li Wenliang did not exist”pieceofmindful.com or he was a “crisis actor”.As some people have noted he was originally reported to have been 33, a very significant number, the number 33 keeps recurring during the Coronavirus psyop/hoax.

    • 同意: Desert Fox
  176. fredtard 说:

    I think the vaccine angle is one of the prime hidden motives for this manufactured hysteria, whether the n-cov-19 is as scary as TPTB say or not.

    I’ve read quite a bit about vaccine safety and efficacy, or rather lack thereof. The shaming and demonization of anti-vaxxers that’s been on display for years has only increased skepticism, in my view. And yet that same approach is being applied to covid skeptics right now.
    The B&M Gates Foundation, CEPI, et al are rolling out a whole new type of vaccine called messenger RNA vaccine that’s been in development for at least 10 years. It’s their great new hope, but clinical trial safety data just does not exist. Hey, denier, this is an emergency! Moderna Therapeutics (symbol MRNA) in Boston seems to be the closest to the action. As with the rest of vaccines, the main adverse effects are expected to be related to autoimmunity and systemic inflammation. Gee, a product intentionally designed to hyper-stimulate the immune system can cause autoimmunity and inflammation…who could have anticipated that?

    So, I’ll put this out as an alternative question: Who among us know parents who suspect their child’s autism/asthma/food allergies/SIDS death/etc. is the result of an adverse vaccine reaction?

    Mandatory vaccines represent an imminent and serious threat to both the health and productivity of our population. Absolutely insist on a RIA antibody test before submitting to any future covid vaccine. If it’s positive, you already have antibodies, so no need for a vaccine, right?

    • 同意: Kali
  177. Nothing burger?

    Coronavirus may have already infected half of UK, study says

    The rapidly spreading coronavirus may have already infected half the UK population — but that is encouraging news, according to a new study by the University of Oxford.

    The modeling by researchers at Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates the COVID-19 virus reached the UK by mid-January at the latest, spreading undetected for more than a month before the first official case was reported in late February, the Financial Times reports.

    But even though this suggests the spread is far worse than scientists previously estimated, it also implies that only one in a thousand people infected with COVID-19 requires hospitalization.

    The researchers say this shows that herd immunity — the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough of the population builds up resistance through becoming infected — can help fight the highly-contagious disease.

    • 回复: @James N. Kennett
  178. @Pandour

    What test or tests did they use to determine that they allegedly died from the Coronavirus ?

  179. @Polymath

    It is a damned shame that so many people here are invincibly ignorant of math.

    In a Western country, you can’t hide massive increases in the number of dead people. …

    COVID is the only explanation.

    Where’s the math you’re talking of?

    And where are the data showing these “massive increases in the number of dead people”?

    China’s 3000 covid19 deaths must be a microscopic blip on the chart showing time course of national deaths.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
    , @Polymath
  180. Agent76 说:
    @Desert Fox

    Right on my brother from another brother! A doctor in NY found the remedy.

    22年2020月XNUMX日,医学博士Vladmir Zelenko博士找到了治疗冠状病毒的方法

    • 同意: Peripatetic Commenter
    • 回复: @Peripatetic Commenter
  181. Extrapolations and formula-derived projections are inevitably wrong.

    They are useful for setting up parameters and initial assumptions; but actual results will -along the way- come up short of those projections.

    Human behavior will change. Biology/immunology will evolve. And so the real outcomes will turn out better than early extrapolations and projections would indicate.

  182. Bernie 说:

    I’m thinking the swine flu of 2009-2010 will end up killing more than the Chinese flu. It killed over 18,000 in the US.

  183. Anonymous[341]• 免责声明 说:

    Time to heed God’s warning. There is a reason why He put us all on different continents.

    Death to Globalization. Each country produces what they consume.

    Death to immigration. Repatriate all non-whites back to their own continents.

    Death to globohomo. Burn down Sodom and Gomorrah, bankrupt all the institutions they own, from Wall Street to Hollywood, deep state to big tech, big retail like Home Depot, all the casinos, porn industry, the media, the Ivy League and all the liberal arts colleges.

    Man defies God at our own peril.

  184. Anonymous[412]• 免责声明 说:
    @jbwilson24

    I’m simply not convinced at all. The amount of hysteria and panic is utterly disproportionate to the number of deaths.

    What I’m noticing among the commentariat on the website is that people who accuse others of “hysteria” and “panic” regarding this topic, sound much more frightened than the average commenter. Many investments, businesses and jobs are under pressure so that’s understandable but I’m fairly sure that a proper lockdown is the best approach to minimise the damage.

    And it should be done as soon as possible. You’d prefer to wait until the numbers become “real” but that’s exactly the wrong approach when dealing with a pandemic. It’s much better to “nip it in the bud” than linger and face a much larger, longer and costly battle later on.

    • 同意: Polymath
  185. hetro 说:
    @cranc

    Why is it all the links in this post do not work?

    Agreed on this from the post:

    There is more going on here than the virus. Maybe it is incompetence and panic, or something more disturbing. Either way, alt media voices have a duty to report the growing doubt about how deadly this virus really is or isn’t.

  186. St-Germain 说:
    @UncommonGround

    @Uncommon Ground

    今天的德国是精心策划的群众歇斯底里的展示。 星期六,当我和我的女儿(没有戴口罩)从他们身边慢跑时,一个吓坏了的中年妇女和她的丈夫一起走进了灌木丛。 昨天,我30年的邻居想问我,为什么在一个阳光明媚的下午,市政厅周围的整个区域都被警线和三辆警车封锁了。 要做到这一点,她不得不在一条农场道路的另一边大喊大叫,以确保她保持政府现在要求的反社会距离。 周末,一辆闪着蓝灯的音响卡车在附近巡游,警告大家呆在室内,避免彼此。 你仍然可以购买食品和药品,但所有其他商店,包括我的烟草店和彩票店,都被政府命令关闭。 在一个现在处于封锁状态的墨守成规的社会中,这种羊一样的恐惧显然是国家电视台/广播电台和所有报纸不断进行大肆宣传的结果,而这些报纸总是从上面获取线索。

    这真的是对难以察觉的季节性流感病毒的反应吗? 崔伯诺? 这位外籍人士正在观察一个来自根深蒂固的政府及其速记媒体在一个自 2005 年以来就没有任何类似真正反对党的国家引发的全国恐慌。这种戏剧性的结果可能与公共卫生几乎没有关系。 但这无疑让温顺的公众对安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)的无用党的支持日渐减弱,后者的照片每天都登上头版。 和往常一样,它伴随着大量宣传反对新贵的反移民 AfD 党和可怕的警告反对不存在的反犹太主义和所谓的民族主义/民粹主义流行。 我怀疑法国和西班牙正在发生同样的事情。 例如,如果新自由主义统治者不得不寻求政府许可离开他们的房子,那么黄背心和反对法国养老金内脏的人就不能很好地使他们的生活变得困难。 我们看到的是缺乏代表性的精英的政治反击。 该死的羊!

    • 回复: @refl
  187. Mathiness 说:

    Correct that death and not “cases” is the input. But we have to bear in mind that the single doubling time parameter is a heuristic for the contagion model you need: a markov chain with probabilistic passage through states including susceptible, infected, serious, recovered, and dead, or equivalent differential equation model for the continuous approximation. That’s never really exponential growth, which is extremely sensitive to the growth rate as you extrapolate.

    The Unz heuristic is helpful for the specific question at issue here: at what point does the healthcare system get swamped? But then the increased P(dead) will exert a negative feedback on the probability of infection, as will immunity in nonfatal cases, and so on.

    • 回复: @Kratoklastes
  188. @NPleeze

    10 died from the Diamond Princess as of yet. More are in critical condition.

  189. anastasia 说:

    There are new strains of viruses being discovered every year. Corona virus has been around for a very long time. It is responsible for 10 percent of the common cold.

    Further, Sars was a corona virus, also considered “pandemic” . The creator of the test for COVID-19, was also the creator the test for SARS. He published his statement that if you do not have his new test for COVID-19, you can always use his old test for SARS to determine if a person has COVID-19. What does that tell you.

    Viruses never come back in the same form, according to pulmonologist Wolfgang Wodarg. They commonly mutate. He states that if they came back in the same form, they would be recognized by our antibodies and would go nowhere. This is not a new virus. Corona virus comprises 7 to 14 percent of the viruses known. Sars and Covid-19 are new strains of the same old virus.

  190. I was initially skeptical of the COVID-19 virus and how dangerous it might become.

    The important point about this virus is that it is highly infectious. It is also more deadly in certain strains than the normal Influenza A or B virus.

    The main unanswered question at this point is how fast it will mutate and whether it will become more virulent. If it does, mortality rates go up and it is not just Grandma who dies.

    The Spanish Flu was more likely to kill the young than the old.

    I have zero faith in the United States government and its corrupted media to tell the truth. But scientists and infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists are very worried about this virus.

    Ron Unz has provided a potentially valuable mathematical model that can be used to predict infection rates based on mortality data.

    As much as I mistrust the US government and its ministry of propaganda, the fact that the people who run our nation and care nothing about human life have taken steps that would damage the economy to control the spread of the virus tells me that this virus is something to worry about.

    And it also makes me concerned that they know more about this virus than what they are telling us.

  191. res 说:
    @Alfred

    That chart really needs to be accompanied by data on how many people in the population (ideally also divided by age) fit into each of those categories.

    • 同意: JosephD
    • 回复: @Alfred
  192. @Marshall Lentini

    “Easy: people are more sensitive, egoistic, and fearful of death than ever.”

    In other words, western societies have become more feminine, which they have.

    • 同意: Thomm
  193. @Alfred

    “Ever watch someone die as their organs began to fail one after another?”

    Yes. As you say, it wasn’t pretty. Nothing like the quiet deaths depicted on TV. “Ghastly” is the word that comes to mind. My brother, a physician, says that the obit phrase, “Died peacefully in bed” is largely a fantasy. Something to assuage the immediate family.

    • 回复: @Alfred
  194. Bot 说:
    @Trinity

    Agree with you and am calling bullshit on it too. Coronaviruses have been around for centuries. The CDC’s own statistics on seasonal influenza this season so far; 340 thousand plus hospitalizations, 20k plus deaths and millions diagnosed with it. Where’s the panic, quarantining and shutdowns due to this?
    Any serious complications or deaths from covid diagnoses which are problematic to begin with; i.e., questionable testing, 47% false positives, are occurring to those immune comprised individuals, (diabetics, alcohol abuse, smokers and mostly elderly with one or more serious heath problems.
    When looking at the real reasons for this total economic shutdown, mass media and government instigated fear and panic just ask, ciu bono?

  195. anastasia 说:

    Here’s the truth: Any projection about what coronavirus is going to do in the future is little better than wide-eyed speculation. Previous coronavirus outbreaks followed very different trajectories. https://wmbriggs.com/post/29469/

    As of 15 February the CDC says: “CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.”https://wmbriggs.com/post/29469/

  196. 如果 纽约邮报 is correct in reporting that half the UK population have already been infected with Covid-19, while only 422 deaths have resulted, we can infer that the death rate from this virus is in the order of 0.0006%, give or take the odd zero.

    If that’s the case, then maybe I don’t need to worry that most of the people where I live seem, like St-Germain, above, too dumb to understand the meaning of the term 社会疏远.

  197. Paul C. 说:
    @Pandour

    Do you know anyone personally that has it? If not, why not? I’ve been talking to many across multiple states for 2 months and not one person knows of anyone personally with it. Sounds like quite the “pandemic”. More a pandemic in our minds.

    If you’re going to regurgitate what the news and the so-called authorities “tell you”, don’t waste your time. News flash, they lie 24/7 and their goal is to misinform you on all matters.

    Hopefully many are being red-pilled finally.

    • 回复: @Pandour
  198. @Polymath

    You can’t go only by the death to recovery ratio, because it all depends on the absolute number of diagnosed cases. In any case, mortality rate is the usual metric that is used. New cases in China are mostly not rising within the population, but are now coming in from abroad. Many provinces in China have deaths in the single digits, China effectively was able to contain the coronavirus within Hubei province and now appears to be mopping it up there. Ratios in themselves are not enough to predict how this will go, to see the big picture you must include the national efforts to contain the virus which of course are not really reducible to a quantity. Same for possible seasonal effects.

  199. res 说:
    @The Alarmist

    Interesting. Thanks. This article has some discussion of the World Bank Pandemic Bonds.
    https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1klyqsykl0d0m/when-will-coronavirus-covid19-trigger-the-world-bank39s-pandemic-bond

    If I read things correctly, it looks like there is a significant chance the triggers will be met before maturation.

    Euromoney understands that the earliest date on which it would be known if all bond trigger conditions have been met is April 9.
    ...
    该债券将于15月2.0日到期,但可以延长一年。 世界银行正在准备该计划的第二次迭代,称为大流行紧急医疗设施(PEF)2020,世行去年表示,该计划将于XNUMX年XNUMX月投放市场。

    The amount of money involved seems small to justify what you describe, but perhaps they were concerned about the precedent?

    The World Bank’s pandemic bond was structured with two classes. The \$95 million class-B tranche pays out first, and can be reduced to zero by a coronavirus payout. There is a greater hurdle for payout from the \$225 million class-A tranche, and the loss here is capped at 16.67%, or \$37.5 million.

  200. @Pandour

    “The crematorium in Bergamo at full capacity 24 hours a day can cremate 25 bodies.”

    When all this blows over, revisit the number of Jews who were supposedly murdered and cremated at Auschwitz on a daily basis and you’ll soon realize that the numbers don’t add up at all.

  201. @Anon

    Just shows that our elite scientific institutions, dominated as they are by Asians and Jews, cannot compete with the creative and inventive energy of the Germanic people. We need to give the boot to most or many of the Asians and Jews in our university science departments and reinstate our own native-born Germanic people, those who created and made them great to begin with.

  202. Trinity 说:
    @MIssouri Bear

    You would think that the gullible goyim would eventually figure this one out.

    1. Germany wanted to conquer the world and exterminated 6 garillion Jews
    2. Nazis turned Jews into lampshades and bars of soap
    3. German soldiers were throwing babies in the air and spearing them with their bayonets
    4. Lee Harvey Oswald operated alone in the JFK assassination
    5. the attack on the USS Liberty was an accident
    6. 9-11 official narrative ( nuff said)
    7. Just a COHENcidence that Jews control almost the entire MSM, every major newspaper and much of social media like Jewgle, FaceBerg, etc.
    8. Hasn’t Israel made threats against other nations, ( Samson Option)
    9. Lavon Affair
    10. Epstein honey pot
    11. Pollard and Rosenbergs

    etc., etc., etc., etc. If you are still gullible, then what the hell, there is no help for you. You can’t fix stupid.

    • 回复: @Missouri Bear
  203. Rad1 说:

    On another website today: CDC numbers, seasonal flu from September 2019 to ?present, 23,000 deaths (ho hum); corona virus in that time period about 800 deaths (EEK!). Well, I tend not to believe anything high level government workers say about anything, ever, but even if these figures are ballpark, the panic over corona virus must be orchestrated. Some questions: how is a corona virus infection “confirmed?” One company manufacturing test kits states on its website that their test kit for Covid 19 is Not to be used for diagnosis, just research purposes. Reason… it turns positive to a number of pathogenic microorganisms. Even if we assume, incorrectly, that the covid 19 tests are 100% accurate, the fact is that most people who test positive have no or minuscule symptoms. However, if you are seriously ill and test positive for corona virus, THAT is what is causing your illness and death (all other infectious causes of illness and death will not be considered). Another question: is there any concern for unintended consequences of quarantine such as increased rates of domestic/child abuse, suicide, homicide, etc. ?

  204. glib 说:
    @glib

    One more plot. Total mortality death rates in Europe by week, 2016 to one or two weeks ago (not sure when they start the week. It could be March 9, 11, or 16). Note recurrent flu related peaks every winter. Note comparison this winter with 2016-2017 winter (2014-2015 was worse). This has been a very benign winter. But people are dying!

    http://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/number.html

  205. Our leaders are almost certainly acting on bad information.

    While the infection is severe for some, experts, several I’ve read, say that most people getting infected will never know they had it. They will not seek help. They will not appear in data.

    A couple of considerations.

    Italian doctors last year appear to have discovered the same thing as the Chinese, an unusual cluster of pneumonia cases.

    他们开始认为他们实际上是冠状病毒。

    第二,一些严肃的专家认为我们所有的数字都错了。

    据称,这种感染不久前在欧洲和美国人群中蔓延。

    但是,因为对于大多数人来说,感染是如此轻微,甚至没有症状,所以各地总感染人数的所有数字都可能偏低。

    当然,如果是这样的话,这个东西的死亡率其实是极低的,不值得采取极端措施,我们的政治领导人是根据可怕的数据采取行动的。

    我不知道。 这一切都代表着一场噩梦。

    It very much resembles an episode of Rod Serling’s Twilight Zone of 1960.

  206. @oneworld

    Dr. Ioannidis is a heavyweight.

    Ioannidis’s 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” has been the most downloaded technical paper from the journal PLoS Medicine and is considered foundational to the field of metascience.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

  207. Alfred 说:
    @Polymath

    In a Western country, you can’t hide massive increases in the number of dead people

    The number of dead for week 11 of 2020 ((March 9 – 15, 2020) for Italy are in line with the previous 3 years.

    Mortality monitoring in Europe
    http://www.euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html

    Thank you @glib

    You have been suckered by the MSM – but you are not alone. 🙂

    • 回复: @Polymath
    , @glib
    , @anastasia
  208. anastasia 说:

    Here is a statistic from 2017-1018 from the CDC for the United States

    The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

  209. @Popeye

    Bronchitis (inflammation of the bronchial tubes) is a syndrome not a specific disease. Broncitis is often caused by viral infections like colds, flus, and other respiratory tract infections like Covid-19. It is also caused by bacteria is some cases.

    • 回复: @Popeye
  210. @botazefa

    You make a very important point.

    What is the risk for developing ARDS from influenza A or B infection?

    If you are right that it is extremely rare, then finding ARDS in patients known to be infected with COVID-19 infection is strong evidence that COVID-19 caused the death.

  211. UK 说:

    典型的死亡期(感染和死亡之间的时间)——据估计,大约为 3 周。

    Which estimates? Here it says 8 days…

    http://www.lastampa.it/esteri/la-stampa-in-english/2020/03/19/news/covid-19-causes-death-after-a-median-of-8-days-study-shows-1.38612578/amp/

    Why do you always have your thumb on the scale? Is it conscious?

    • 回复: @Eugene Norman
  212. 蓬佩奥公开表示,我们的政府“撒谎、欺骗和偷窃”以实现其反基督教的目标。

    Absolutely the key datum along with the unsaid but implied. Our government kidnaps, tortures, rapes, kills, traffics children, and culls useless eaters. Power and patriotism provide a cover for everything. What would be nice is a leaker at the Epidemic Intelligence Service.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service

    Yes. It is really a thing.

  213. Sparkon 说:
    @lavoisier

    The main unanswered question at this point is how fast it will mutate and whether it will become more virulent. If it does, mortality rates go up and it is not just Grandma who dies.

    The Spanish Flu was more likely to kill the young than the old.

    Correct on all points. The first wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic was relatively mild, and most of the victims were under 65. According to genetic sequencing that was done after traces of the virus were recovered from frozen Intuit victims, the virus or its progenitors had been circulating since 1900 -1915.

    The first wave in 1918 was odd not only in killing the relatively young, but also in the fact that its first significant eruption took place in the spring, followed by a lull over the summer before the virus returned with a vengeance in the fall in the infamous second wave, now mutated into an even more deadly form, reportedly capable of killing a young, healthy adult within 24 hours, with the biggest spike in mortality occurring in October, 1918.

    It is thought that the more virulent form of the virus arose in the crowded, unsanitary conditions of military medical camps and hospitals in Europe during WWI.

    Tumpey and colleagues wrote “the constellation of all eight genes together make an exceptionally virulent virus.” No other human influenza viruses tested were as exceptionally virulent. In that way, the 1918 virus was special – a uniquely deadly product of nature, evolution and the intermingling of people and animals. It would serve as a portent of nature’s ability to produce future pandemics of varying public health concern and origin.

    (我的粗体)

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

    • 回复: @Wielgus
  214. this entire thread is a false positive.

    i estimate based on the rapid growth of lacrosse that in only a few years time, it will overtake football as the most popular sport in america.

    see how this works?

    • 谢谢: John Chuckman
    • 回复: @Eugene Norman
  215. anastasia 说:

    there’s another thing. If this virus was discovered on January 9th by the Chinese by testing 41 people and finding out that 12 had this new strain, then it was around longer than that. It had to around before December in Wuhan.

    And if it was around before December (they believe October 2019), then those Chinese was coming in and out of the US from October through January 20. Yet, no inordinate number of flu patients in the hospitals, and anyone who did have the flu and wound up in the hospital, if it were so very contagious, never passed it onto any other patient or any health care worker between October and January 20.

    Is it the virus or the knowledge of the virus that makes one sick with it.

  216. Anonymous[412]• 免责声明 说:
    @MIssouri Bear

    I’m amazed to see such a collapse in fortitude when governmental institutions begin throwing numbers around over matters they can’t fully explain, but the majority of the population falls right in line with known liars, thieves and killers, just astounding!!

    Not all governments are comprised of known liars, thieves and killers. I’m buying this because China and South Korea are selling it (even Italy, in its own way). I’m also “falling in line” because a lockdown, if properly implemented, should show results within weeks of implementation and become much less restrictive in a month or two.

  217. refl 说:
    @ThreeCranes

    Corona was still the proximate cause. The precondition itself (themselves) were not enough, in themselves, to have brought about the person’s death. So what difference does it make. The person still died, basically, from Corona.

    Simply not – it is a virus found in any sample of people with a cold – as it has always been around. In cases of severe flu, the number will be higher. Go to the video by Wolfgang Wodarg for reference. It has been linked all over here by now.

    The other day I wrote a comment in which I had calculated the rate of expansion of the virus from the data available on the Worldometer website

    The idea of the worldometer in itself is pointless. Do you think that there are the definitions and structures to fill in appropriate data in real time? Somebody in any country fills in something, that is all.
    I would never go to a doctor with a flu, unless it gets severe. I would probably only enter a hospital with it, if the doctor sent me there. It is a rule of thump that during the flu season you better avoid doctors, because you get any sort of contagion in the ward
    So, in hospitals you only meet severe cases. They find themselves inside an overwhelmed health system with hospital staff that has been told to look for corona cases (in fact, it might well be, that to be admitted, you have to be defined as a suspected case of corona in many places by now).

    I am quite sure that a huge number of secondary super infections have never been mapped. Hospitals will throw at them any ort of antibiotics that they have and hope that it helps. In current conditions, if you develop pulmonia, once the hospital has admited you, you will most likely be treated as a corona case.

    If the statistics are not based on properly defined data, which they can’t because it is all makeshift, there numbers are pointless. There will be exponential rises, for the simple reason that something is spreading. Just that the thing that is spreading, is not a virus but a hype.

    And keep in mind, that this has become so big by now, that the relevant authorities need sizable numbers of infected and dead to justify their freakish behaviour. So there is definitely no interest to correct them. They will (hopefully) start to apply stricter definitions, which will make the numbers go down. Then they will declare victory.

    That should do to eplain the thing basically.

  218. anastasia 说:

    Health assessment: Wodarg.com

    There is no valid data and no evidence of exceptional health threats.

    无可争辩的事实:

    The official mortality statistics, which are still available, and various national flu monitoring institutes show the normal course of the curves.
    The seasonal “flu” is as usual.
    Corona viruses are and have always been there.
    Corona viruses, influenza viruses and other viruses have to change continuously.
    So “new” viruses are normal.
    The significance and application of the PCR tests:

    The tests used have not been officially validated, but have only been approved by cooperating institutes.
    The tests are frequently used (Wuhan and Italy) selectively, for example in the case of seriously ill people anyway, and are then unusable for the assessment of a disease risk.
    Without the tests, which are questionable in terms of their informative value and their falsifying application, there would be no indication for emergency measures.
    Other risks of misjudgment

    Even in Italy, without the new tests, the annual problem in the flu season would be observed: undersupply, an aging population, many deaths due to hospital infections, tightness, lack of staff and a high level of antibiotic resistance. A positive Sars-2-Cov test is largely only a secondary finding. Influenza is still much more dangerous for weakened patients, but is hardly noticed.

  219. ken19 说:

    There is only one way to get rapid immunity and that is for most to get the virus. No matter what you do, no matter how many lockdowns, no matter what most will end up getting the virus. The tests are pretty much bogus and returns many errors. The CDC admits this but still uses the numbers. If the virus is natural it may return, if man made it will eventually disappear. The numbers don’t rate any of the bs now going on. IF you compare the flu to CV19 APPLES to APPLES you find the flu is far more deadly.
    The biggest problem I see are the lazy media types just accepting the facts from CDC and WHO without verifying. Example: NYC reporting not enough room for corpses, but the hospitals show no sign of being overloaded and in fact are almost empty.
    No matter what though,,, you don’t kill the victim to cure the disease.

    • 回复: @but an humble craftsman
  220. Iris 说:
    @cortesar

    抱歉,您遗漏了文章中明确提出的一个关键点。

    Covid-19 患者经常需要 ICU 护理; 只有在医院不不堪重负的情况下,低死亡率才有效。 达到临界点后,死亡人数将成倍增加。

    We don’t know by what factor, but currently, a few middle-range developing countries with better universal health care systems than the US’ present a mortality rate around 10%.

    • 回复: @cortesar
  221. Well Prince Charles got it. The Queen is 93 years old. Will she survive this emergency whether she gets it or not?

  222. Will 说:
    @Pft

    Spot on, my dude. Mr. Unz is pushing fantasy/panic/fear.

    Another Italian health official came out and announced as much.

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/17/corona-bologna-the-truth-begins-to-leak-out/

    • 谢谢: Alfred
  223. @thotmonger

    I also remember some of early estimates of Mad Cow disease in humans in UK and they turned out to be very exaggerated.

    When the political class was trying to de-gay HIV/AIDS in 1987, they had Oprah tell everyone that 20% of heterosexual people would be dead before 1990.

    The first I learned of Oprah’s jaw-droppingly sensationalist remarks, was in a piece a couple of days ago on 美国思想家 (which sounds like a rare bird indeed, if not an outright oxymoron – but it has good stuff from time to time).

    Anyhow, it was an interesting piece – entitled Reflections on a Century of Junk Science by the author of “Hoodwinked: How Intellectual Hucksters Have Hijacked American Culture“, which I will acquire today. (The book’s 11 years old, but sounds like it will be along the same lines as Kendrick’s “Doctoring Data: How to Sort Out Medical Advice from Medical Nonsense“, which was excellent).

    • 回复: @thotmonger
  224. Will 说:
    @glib

    Thanks for sharing some sanity. Sometimes Unz has a peculiar tendency to stray significantly from his seeming capacity to reason (i.e. his takes immigration). One has to wonder how accidental Mr. Unz occasional straying is.

  225. @prime noticer

    Yeh but lacrosse (if it is indeed growing faster than football which I doubt) will have an obvious peak, when you run out of school girls in private schools.

    For a novel virus with no immunity there’s no stopping exponential growth until the population reaches herd immunity, and that number depends on the transmission rate (the R0), if R0 is 2 then 50% is enough. If R0 is 3 then you need ~ 70% before the population has herd immunity.

    As for whether the total lockdown makes sense, I think it should be played locality by locality. We do need testing though to work that out. New York should lockdown for now. Montana doesn’t need to.

    • 回复: @Skeptikal
  226. Amanda 说:

    从 SolosGirl 找到这条评论 https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dhs-warns-nyc-morgues-near-capacity-local-hospitals-construct-makeshift-facilities

    [更多]

    感谢上帝。 有一定理智的人在地面上聆听现实。 没有人愿意这样做——因为它没有那么令人兴奋。 人们喜欢戏剧。 如果他们不能拥有它,他们会弥补它。

    I 在纽约州急诊室和重症监护室工作。 没有人生病。 被病毒“感染”并不意味着什么——即“被插管”.

    任何直立行走且年龄超过 20 岁的人都患有唇疱疹,通常称为“发烧水疱”。 这是由 HSV 引起的。 单纯疱疹病毒。 你被感染了。 时期。 在你余生的日子里。 你会经常爆发——在压力或疾病的时候——你可能很多年都没有爆发。 但是你被感染了。 永远。

    仅仅因为我或其他任何人的病毒“检测呈阳性”——并不意味着他们生病或正在生病或将生病。 时期。

    昨天我问了一些反刍者的工作人员——因为他在胡说八道“需要 30K 通风口”......“所以。 我们现在有 6 名 C-19 阳性患者。 有多少需要插管,需要通风口?” 他说——“我不知道。” 我说…。“零。 没有。 他们甚至没有症状。 他们来这里是出于其他原因,只是碰巧检测呈阳性。 他们没有来这里是因为他们生病了,而 C-19 就是原因。 事实上——这些病人将被送去‘居家隔离’,因为他们没有生病。”

    他盯着我看。 松弛下巴和不相信。 我说——“那么告诉我这个星球上有多少‘积极’的人现在在发泄?” 他说……“duhhhhhhh……我不知道。” 我问……“到底有多少‘感染者’生病了?” 他以通常的方式回应……“duerrrfeee。我不知道。”

    然后他跟进了…… .但我们需要 30,000 台呼吸机!!!! 现在!!!!!!!

    我预测这种胡说八道会在大约 2 周内开始“消失”……就在 TARP 2.0 类固醇和硝基通过之后。 在可能发生创造性破坏之后——首席执行官们兑现了,人们被解雇了,只是被带回来,工资能力/谈判能力要低得多(因为以你以前工资的一半受雇比试图在纽约失业要好),以及人们现在互相害怕,因为古老而真实的“害怕那些住在沙漠泥屋里的恐怖分子”这一次并没有那么好用。

    库默将自己定位为 20 年代的“鲁迪”。 没看到对比? 没有人记得那位值得信赖的将军拿着一小瓶白色粉末,说服世界美国必须入侵伊拉克,否则全球就会出现蘑菇云? 在 9/11 的胡说八道之后,Bushie 在创纪录的时间内通过了爱国者法案怎么样?

    库莫需要关闭他的馅饼洞——因为 地面上的人真的厌倦了他对没有发生的事情的垃圾。

    停尸房不会“人满为患”。 时期 . 我对那个愚蠢的斯奈德最近关于“从这种病毒中恢复”的“文章”一笑置之,这是一个愚蠢的低数字。 感染人数为 250 万——死亡人数为 200 (而且我还没有看到任何类型的尸检报告向我证明是这种病毒杀死了任何人。完全没有。)——但他吹捧了一些愚蠢的“康复”数字,比如 500。

    嗯……所以……其他 249,500 人检测呈阳性呢? 他们没有生病——但他们没有“康复”?

    真是一群该死的白痴。 走出房子,白痴——去寻找自己……哦,是的。 Cheetoh 将医院禁止访问任何访客,因此没有人能真正看到发生了什么。

    然而——我和我的同事没有接受测试。 事实上——我们几天前就用完了 N95,还有 ISO 防护服。 有人放屁吗?

    不,因为他们知道。 没有危险。 我上班不戴口罩。 我不穿iso装备。 我的急诊室同事也没有。 您看到的所有图片仅用于宣传。 没有人穿着这种狗屎——因为没有人处于任何危险之中——而且医院也没有提供任何额外的东西。

    TARP 2.0 中关于类固醇和硝基的资金用于支付股东的损失。 这就是整个虚假的“病毒”事件的意义所在。

    Cheetoh 说——经济将在复活节前重新开放。 他应该知道。 他和他的伙伴们制造了这整件事。

    • 回复: @refl
  227. macilrae 说:
    @Realist

    I have two family members in UK who have already recovered after testing positive and I, myself, suffered ten days with an unpleasant dry cough, malaise and low grade fever late in February – which has since cleared uneventfully. I was never tested and, following my GP, discounted being infected with COVID-19 at that time.

    An antibody test for COVID-19 virus exposure is near to becoming commercially available and this is likely to be widely used in order to identify people who can safely volunteer to help with the pandemic – it may provide some interesting statistics and a different management perspective.

    • 回复: @Realist
  228. @UK

    That’s 8 days from first symptoms. The virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days. Median is 5 days, 97% show signs in 11 days.

    3 weeks is probably incorrect but 2-3 weeks is accurate enough.

    It also depends on treatment. Your link was to Italy where the health service collapsed, reducing the time between symptoms and death.

    • 回复: @UK
    , @Ron Unz
  229. Sokrates 说:
    @refl

    Refl,
    我不明白。
    What is wrong with dictatorships?
    If the Generals are American pure Patriots where is the fault?
    Or today you think there is Democracy anywhere in the world because we vote?

    Keep in mind, my name is Socrates.
    In my days, Athens “democracy”, had 200.000 Athenian citizens and 400.000 slaves.

    • 回复: @refl
  230. @Amanda

    This right here renders all of this discussion worthless. The CDC can’t even accurately test for the virus, so how do we know anything? It’s amazing how the posters here, including Ron, are woke to the JQ, understand the depth of jewish control over our lives, and endured how many jewish false flags and hoaxes in the past few decades, yet still go along with this Corona craze!

  231. UK 说:
    @Eugene Norman

    The Italian health service hasn’t collapsed though…

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  232. Alfred 说:
    @res

    Of course, it can be improved. But it is a good start. It reveals the fact that Italy is not suffering from an increase in mortality of any significance.

    这还不够吗?

    Someone needs to tell us why. But no one is asking the important questions.

    Do you think it is difficult to get the Italian army to drive a line of trucks at night out of town?

    The whole thing is taking on the air of theater at the moment. They fooled me for a few weeks. 🙂

  233. I went to the NY Dept of Health for their latest figures and did a calculation.

    Downstate Counties (Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Suffolk, Nassau, Dutchess) + NYC = 24837 cases.

    Total New York State cases = 25665

    97% of the states cases are downstate, 3% upstate, yet the entire state is in Benito Cuomo lockdown.

    This is effing insane.

    • 同意: JosephD
  234. Mt 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Mr Unz will you please credit Inan Dogan of insider monkey here as it is his arguments you are using?

    https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-here-is-the-mathematical-proof-822824/

    谢谢

    • 回复: @Ron Unz
    , @PetrOldSack
  235. Anonymous[412]• 免责声明 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    China’s 3000 covid19 deaths must be a microscopic blip on the chart showing time course of national deaths.

    Why do people say these things?

    It’s a small number because they (mostly) stopped it before it could spread to the other 99.995% of the population. Consequently, the percentage of infected people ended up being an even smaller “microscopic blip”.

    As of now, they have little over 80K confirmed cases out of 1.4 billion citizens. It’s certainly possible that the number of “unconfirmed” cases is a few times larger but the point remains.

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
    , @GazaPlanet
  236. Will 说:

    “This, of course, is when stat-molesters jump in to inform me that pneumonia is known, but COVID-19 is new & its spread could be exponential

    BUT, you’d need to base this on something far less moronic than using infection & death rates among the sick to project to the population”

    https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242487066711273473

    “So far we know:
    -tests have large error margin
    -positive tests only associated with small chance of being sick
    -vast majority of COVID-19 cases have other serious diseases
    -We have 80x more pneumonia cases than COVID-19

    Are these good reasons to suspend the lives of billions?”

    https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242489837409701894

  237. Alfred 说:
    @ThreeCranes

    In the UK, doctors used to systematically overdose on morphine those in great pain who were dying anyway. Now, that is a risk not worth taking – because we are a kinder society. /sarc

    Doctor faces action over morphine deaths of elderly patients

    • 回复: @Wielgus
  238. Truth3 说:
    @Commentator Mike

    You’re dead wrong on all counts.

    1. I was in contact with NOBODY once I got sick, EXCEPT for one trip to clinic to find out if the pneumonia I thought I was suffering from was bacterial or viral… so I could get it properly treated… Azythromycin (antibiotic) the likely choice for me for bacterial (sinus, ear, throat, bronchial) infections… or if viral, I use a drug that I discovered in Europe three decades ago.

    2. Even at clinic I had dosed up before with massive cough suppressants (over three tablespoons of dextromethorphan syrup plus DM + G tablets, all while sucking on half a dozen mixed cough drops, as I did NOT want to cough in anyone’s presence.

    3. As breathing was very difficult (if I breathed in more than a little at a time it forced massive cough reflex) I oxygened up with lots of breathing in the car in the parking lot before going inside. I was light headed to the extreme those days anyway. This way, inside, I was breathing extremely shallow… so as not to provoke a response.

    4. After checking in, I asked her to text my phone when I would be called, so I go outside and not be in waiting room. This was for my protection (immune disorder) as much as theirs.

    5. The swab test was negative, so it wasn’t bacterial. The doctor thought I was suffering from bronchitis due to cold. This made no sense, but I did not really care about his opinion, all I cared about was this viral or bacterial. As it was not bacterial he prescribed nothing but said over the counter cold & cough medicines would be fine. I don’t take them.

    6. As I now felt this was a viral pneumonia, and I have extreme risk of complications, I resumed what I was doing before… 6 long hot showers daily, expelling every hour, massive doses of vitamin C any way I could get it in me, and my special lifesaver yellow tablets from Europe.

    7. As to the Ft. Bragg origin issue… my immune disorder causes rapid onset infections. I can be sick in less than 24 hours of exposure. I got sick on the drive AWAY from Bragg, maybe 15 hours after being there. Within 48 hours I was deathly ill. Whoever gave it to me probably infected hosts of others, but I certainly did not.

    Now that I have thoroughly put to a grave all your nasty insinuations…

    Save your fucking apology.

    GO FUCK OFF AND DIE FOR THE LAST TIME.

    And get ready for the pitchfork asshole.

    • 回复: @Malla
  239. Realist 说:
    @macilrae

    I don’t know if there is a way to test for Covid-19 posthumously, but those that died from flu or pneumonia like symptoms, last fall, should be tested to get better data on the beginning of Covid-19

  240. cortesar 说:
    @Iris

    “我们不知道是什么因素,但目前,一些拥有比美国更好的全民医疗保健系统的中等发展中国家的死亡率约为 10%。”

    除非您知道感染人数,否则您无法知道死亡率 这个数字最多可以估计
    世界上没有一个国家的死亡率甚至接近 10%
    关于呼吸器运气增加死亡人数的观点是正确的
    但问题又是多少?
    另一方面,正如其他人指出的那样,由其他疾病引起的电晕导致的死亡人数远非可以忽略不计
    我认为这个数字大于那些没有呼吸器就会死亡的潜在人数

  241. Ron Unz 说:
    @Eugene Norman

    That’s 8 days from first symptoms. The virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days. Median is 5 days, 97% show signs in 11 days.

    3 weeks is probably incorrect but 2-3 weeks is accurate enough.

    It also depends on treatment. Your link was to Italy where the health service collapsed, reducing the time between symptoms and death.

    Yes, I agree entirely. I’d seen the estimate of three weeks from infection to death floating around, and I certainly can’t say how solidly established it is. That’s the whole reason I provided the simple formula, allowing anyone to use whatever parameters they believe in their particular local situation.

    But I’m skeptical of the Italian data for exactly the reason you suggest. Since the ICUs are totally overloaded, the older/sicker/weaker patients cannot be given treatment and die almost immediately, they now constitute the overwhelming majority of Italian deaths. That’s why the death rate tends to spikes from e.g. 1% to e.g. 5%.

    • 回复: @Truth3
  242. anastasia 说:

    Sucharit Bhakdi (born November 1, 1946) is a physician and specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and was head of the Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene there for 22 years. [1]

    Bhakdi studied human medicine at the University of Bonn from 1963 to 1970, from 1966 to 1970 as a scholarship holder of the German Academic Exchange Service. In February 1971 he became dr. med. doctorate. From 1972 to 1974 he had a scholarship from the Max Planck Societyat the Max Planck Institute for Immunobiology in Freiburg. From 1974 to 1976 he received a scholarship from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation at the Max Planck Institute for Immunobiology in Freiburg. After a one-year stay at the University of Copenhagen, he worked from 1977 to 1990 at the Institute of Medical Microbiology of the Justus-Liebig-University Giessen. He completed his habilitation in July 1979. He was appointed C2 Professor in 1982 and C3 Professor of Medical Microbiology in 1987 before being appointed to the University of Mainz in 1990.

    From 1991 he taught there as a professor at the Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene.

    Bhakdi was a member of the Collaborative Research Centres of the German Research Foundation “Proteins as Tools in Biology” at the University of Giessen (1987-90), deputy spokesman of the Collaborative Research Centre “Immunpathogenese” (1990-99) and spokesman of the Collaborative Research Centre 490 “Infection and Persistence in Infections” in Mainz (2000-11). [1][2]

  243. willem1 说:

    This formula seems to suffer from some circular reasoning.

    Based on this formula, it is claimed that the actual number of cases is much higher than what is reported. But note that the calculation depends primarily on an reasonably accurate estimate of mortality rate.

    However, this very “mortality rate” quoted by the bean counters is itself based on the percentage of IDENTIFIED cases that result in death. If the true number of infections is really much higher than what has been IDENTIFIED, that in turn means that the cited mortality rate is actually much LOWER than the officially calculated one.

    • 同意: PetrOldSack
    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
  244. Ron Unz 说:
    @Mt

    Mr Unz will you please credit Inan Dogan of insider monkey here as it is his arguments you are using?

    https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-here-is-the-mathematical-proof-822824/

    I’ve never heard of Inan Dogan or Insider Monkey, but it’s clear that he published exactly the same sort of analysis several days ago. So he certainly has “priority” over me.

    Frankly, the whole analysis seemed so obvious that I’d assumed everyone was using it, and was quite surprised yesterday when it provoked considerable confusion in a comment-thread. Therefore, I decided to write it up and bring it to the attention of those unaware of the methodology. But I’d really assume that many dozens of people have already pointed out the same thing.

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
    , @niceland
    , @IT'S ME
  245. @lavoisier

    they know more about this virus than what they are telling us

    Oh for fuck’s sake… this old canard.

    Government has a history of doing knee-jerk and counterproductive shit – really obvious fuckups, based on manifestly wrong information, and with predictable, expensive consequences.

    They know more than they are telling us‘ is simply not part of any plausible set of explanations.

    They’re both venal and incompetent, and can act precipitately in the full knowledge that they will never be held to account.

    他们知道 than they are telling us‘ is a far better guess.

    What they are telling us is mostly false‘ is the most likely answer.

    • 回复: @ThreeCranes
  246. glib 说:

    It is clear that Ron studied theoretical physics, and not experimental, because his methodology is terrible. It is based on perfect knowledge of a t0 (time zero). There is no t0 here, what with the virus being in Italy in November at the latest, all countries being unable to identify a patient zero, and most people being asymptomatic.

    He might not be clear about excess mortality either. And his followers are uncapable of understanding that virus mortality is a matter of definition and can be inflated or deflated with simple accounting tricks. Here is a clue: Germany and Italy virus mortality rates are in fact similar.

    Anyhow, the virus is benign (see my previous post), with total mortality in Europe well on the decline, as it happens every spring. But this virus has been deadly to the prestige of alternative press sites such as Moon of Alabama and Unz. I want to collect in this subthread sites who got it right from the get go. Andrei Martyanov, while cautious, has always said the correct things (Reminiscence of the future blog). But the best I have seen has been Marko Marjanovic at 反帝国网 (he is fund raising. Give him a buck or two). Surely there are others.

  247. @Mt

    Similar line of thought, five days earlier, based on a two minute glance, since the logic was already assimilated here at UR. Is there any correlation, underlying sources and evidence being the same, leading to alignment of conclusions?

  248. CanSpeccy 说:
    @Anonymous

    Your comment is a non sequitur. I repeat my comment in response to Polymath:

    Where’s the math you’re talking of?

    And where are the data showing these “massive increases in the number of dead people”?

    China’s 3000 covid19 deaths must be a microscopic blip on the chart showing time course of national deaths.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  249. L.K 说:
    @UncommonGround

    According to an article in Spiegel today the death rate in Italy is 9.4 %

    It is much lower than that.

    This death rate for Italy is being calculated based on the number of confirmed infected cases but the real number is much higher.

    The total number of confirmed cases hit 69,176 on Tuesday, but with Italy testing only people with severe symptoms, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said the true number of infected people was probably 10 times higher.

    “A ratio of one certified case out of every 10 is credible,” Angelo Borrelli told La Repubblica newspaper, indicating he believed some 700,000 people could have been infected.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italian-coronavirus-cases-likely-10-times-higher-than-reported-idUSKBN21B1CC

    So the death rate in Italy is much lower than 9.4%.

    It seems to me the main problem is the tremendous speed of contagion for COVID-19, which can then cause the serious cases to overcome even good heath care systems, such as in Northern Italy.

    What is happening in Lombardia seems to indicate the tremendous speed of contagion, which appears much greater than a normal Flu, with the serious cases then collapsing the health care system.

    Otherwise we would not be witnessing what we are witnessing.

  250. Truth3 说:
    @Ron Unz

    For those with compromised immunity (CVID, or other) the incubation period will almost certainly be far less.

    At least those with CVID or other, are a blessing in disguise to the general population. Like the canary in the coal mine analogy, plus fewer days where transmission is possible in a no symptom state.

  251. @Ron Unz

    Frankly, the whole analysis seemed so obvious that I’d assumed everyone was using it…

    It seems obvious from comments here that you method is extremely unlikely to be useful in “correctly estimating coronavirus infections”.

    The only sensible way to estimate the infection rate of a population, assuming you want to estimate infection rate correctly, is by random testing with a valid test.

    A random sample of around 400 would give a pretty good indication, assuming, that is, that you have a valid test.

    If you have no valid test, then there is no method of correctly estimating coronavirus infections.

  252. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @Paul C.

    Stick to watching reruns of the Beverly Hillbillies.I live in Croatia and there are four live TV daily with the Minister of the Interior,Health Minister,Minister of Civil Defense and others present updating the situation.Today they reported a total of 442 infected thus far including 34 today,one of them the chief anesthesiologist in a big hospital in Zagreb.Yes,I do know someone who has been infected,a young man who was airlifted to hospital in Split from Hvar island where I live.Thus far globally there have been over 36,000 deaths-those are stats from the WHO,CDC,ECDC,John Hopkins University,etc.All these global organizations and institutions are,according to you,deluded.The U.S. at present has 849 deaths.OF COURSE you dont know anyone personally.The U.S. is the 3d largest country in the world with over 330 million people-some areas are harder hit,some not at all.Tell governor Cuomo in New York that he is suffering from a pandemic of the mind when he said today that they need 30,000 respirators.You are living proof of the fact that 80 per cent of Americans didnt buy a single book last year.

    • 同意: Spanky
    • 回复: @Alfred
    , @Paul C.
  253. Alfred 说:
    @Pandour

    Believe it or not, people are dying all the time. The fact that an unreliable test “proves” that they had this virus when they died is not proof that they died because of this virus. Our bodies are constantly handling multitudes of viruses. That is normal.

    Just because a bottle of alcohol was found in a crashed car does not prove that the driver was drunk. 🙂

    • 回复: @Spanky
    , @Pandour
    , @Truth3
    , @mark green
  254. refl 说:
    @St-Germain

    On the weekend a sound truck with flashing blue lights cruised the neighborhood, warning everybody to stay indoors and avoid one another.

    Thanks for that piece of information. Now I know that peak idiocy in my place has not yet arrived. This is federalism: some regional politician with an issue in gaining a national profile makes the first move and his suporters follow suite. The disaster in the chancellors office mumbles some pointless speach to sedate the people and the idiot population is declared content by the lying system media.

    The rest of the EU was bullied into this the same way.

    The take away is that western people never gave a wet shit about civil liberties, if they hand them over just like this.

  255. Anonymous[412]• 免责声明 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    Apologies. My bad. I wasn’t concentrating so it looked like just another “it’s a nothingburger because the numbers are low” argument.

    继续。

    • 谢谢: CanSpeccy
  256. @Kratoklastes

    “ They’re both venal and incompetent, and can act precipitately in the full knowledge that they will never be held to account.”

    I worked for the government designing and building roads. There is nothing done by the private sector that is nearly as well built as the roads you drive on. Fact is, the private sector, when held to government standards, kicks and screams because they are so used to cutting corners and filling in their mistakes before then can be held to account. Only airplanes are built as well and for the same reason; there is a government inspector on hand during the entire building process. The private sector rebels against such oversight because their standards are so low that they find such enforced excellence completely alien to their business model. Roads are built well because the lives of many literally depend on their quality and that’s too vital to be left in the hands of the shysters and crooks who make up most of the private sector.

    • 回复: @Kratoklastes
    , @Alfred
  257. @Mathiness

    susceptible, infected, serious, recovered, and dead

    This is why I have been blathering about the SEIR model (which is better than SIR when there’s an incubation period).

    Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Recovered

    (S + E + I + R ≅ N, where N is the population)

    The discrete-time version is very simple, although getting lags right for the transition equations is important.

    Anyone who builds a discrete-time SEIR and parameterises the model so that is a half-decent fit to the data for deaths, will find that the estimate they get for R[0] is 离很远 2;

    R[0] 的 SEIR 估计值为 aβ/((μ+a)(μ+γ))
    哪里
    • 1/a is the incubation period;
    • μ is the death rate;
    • γ is the recovery rate;
    • β 是一个奇怪的参数,它有助于确定 S 和 E 的转换方程(它对 (IS/N) 进行运算——感染率乘以易感性
    (inb4 γ and μ should sum to 1” – not so if deaths occur at a different time rate to recoveries)

    The SEIR model also assumes that ‘recovery’ confers 免疫. That is not evident at this stage – perhaps there is a transitional dynamic required whereby R go back into S.

    Also, this is a whole-of-population model – to segment it (for example by age) makes estimation of the segment-wise parameters almost impossible, because of the small numbers in some segments.

    People who play around with this model will also discover that if Patient Zero was some time in December, there will have been 几十万 of asymptomatic, infected people by the time the very first test was done, and 百万 by the time ‘lockdowns’ were put in place.

    • 同意: Marshall Lentini
  258. Tor597 说:
    @UK

    Yeah, I wonder how the Anglos got the jump and got half their population immune already.

    Almost like they were prepared for the outbreak ahead of time.

    This would be typical of Anglos.

    • 回复: @UK
  259. Rich 说:
    @Zarathustra

    My wife is saying the same thing. Apparently either people are buying tremendous amounts of eggs, or something’s wrong with the chickens. I’m in the NYC metro area so I’m not sure if the disappearance of eggs is limited to us.

    • 回复: @Spanky
    , @Intelligent Dasein
  260. @willem1

    Could we say that the Formula powers the number of cases by itself? Every time it is run, the run-of is making the results differ more wildly? By itself does it cause more of a death-toll then the Coronavirus ever will achieve? Should it (the formula) be wiped of the black-board? Catch the flying pig?

    Could this be helpful: compare total death-toll over periods to the (few) periods of manifest Coronavirus casualties and locally per territory, group of the population. Are there data on mortality available, do they vary widely per month, are identical periods over different recent years useful? Can there somehow a surplus be extracted and attribute it in part to Coronavirus surplus deaths if any? It seems to be all in the data, or unreliable data or no data. Nothing much to operate on. The formulas come later.

    • 回复: @Old fogey
  261. Rich 说:
    @Anon

    I’m married to a half German girl, and my kids look like they stepped out of a Hitler Youth poster, so I’m not an enemy of the German people, but…If they are the best race, why did they lose two major wars in the 20th century? Why have they allowed insane amounts of 3rd world immigration into their country? And why their descent into degenerate sexual activity? It’s been said that before he died Mr Hitler said, “All the good Germans are dead.” My wife’s Kraut relatives say that all the good ones came to America. I don’t know.

    • 回复: @Truth3
    , @Pft
    , @Robert Dolan
  262. Trinity 说:
    @Missouri Bear

    Israel is our bestest best friend in the whole wide world and the only democracy in the Middle East. Rinse. Lather and repeat as often as needed.

    Jews have suffered so much. Rinse. Lather and repeat as often as needed.

    The Holocaust was responsible for the deaths of 6 million Jews. Rinse. Lather and repeat as often as needed.

  263. L.K 说:

    Testimony of a young British man who caught Covid-19 in China, but recovered.

    British man Connor Reed caught Covid-19 while working in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak. The 25-year-old said the disease started with a common cold before progressing to pneumonia, where it got so bad he was waking up at night unable to breathe.

    • 回复: @Alfred
  264. Spanky 说:
    @NoseytheDuke

    I am reminded of an old comment about propaganda…

    A lie is best swallowed when sandwiched between two truths.

    Not everything you read in the NYT is a lie. It’s important they maintain some credibility, as far as the relatively uninformed masses are concerned, so that when they do lie it goes down smoothly.

  265. Trinity 说:

    My personal plan to combat the Kosher Crud aka Jew Flu. Spend more quality time with family. Spend even more time exercising, I have been an exercise freak long before it became popular, started waaay back in the mid-1970s. Get PLENTY of sunshine ( as much as possible at least) and eat plenty of citrus fruits and greens ( kale, spinach, collards, turnip greens, mustard greens, etc.) Avoid all processed junk or any food that doesn’t benefit my body. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. Keep house clean, especially bathroom and kitchen. I am just an uneducated hillbilly and what do I know, so maybe stick with all the (((experts))) out there if you wish. Oh well, carry on with the fear mongering, people.

  266. Spanky 说:
    @Alfred

    Yes, but if there is alcohol on the driver’s breath and he’s staggering around slurring his words…

    If the patent has difficulty breathing, just do a CT scan of their chest. Classic symptom plus confirmation of the 毛玻璃 effect in the lungs ought resolve any doubt as to the cause of their pneumonia.

    Oh wait… Are they already doing that because the test is unreliable? China did.

    • 回复: @UK
    , @Alfred
  267. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @Alfred

    Well,there is dying and there is dying,but there were such things as the Spanish flu and the Black Plague.I figure you would consider that normal too.If you think the present global situation is normal I have no intention of disabusing you from that notion.

    • 同意: L.K
    • 回复: @refl
  268. Spanky 说:
    @Rich

    Eggs are hard to come by here as well…

  269. Paul C. 说:
    @Pandour

    Stick to watching reruns of the Beverly Hillbillies

    You seem quite informed. Keep watching your TV and listening to the government. I’m sure that’s the best way to learn the truth.

    Maybe you can explain why John Hopkins and members of the WHO and Bill & Melinda Gates foundation hosted 事件201 in October, which they prepared for a “pandemic” called… wait for it… CoronaVirus. Huh, what prescience. The CDC advertised a position for a Public Health Advisor for their Quarantine Program on Nov 15, well before the CoronaVirus began. The CDC also holds the patent for the CoronaVirus. So many coincidences!

    I wonder if the US military has even spent time in China? Guess what, the US Military had representatives in Wuhan China for the Military World Games on October 18, 2019. Wow! They were in the actual city where the virus was discovered a few months later. This all reads like a good novel but I’m sure everything is coincidental.

    Keeping watching your TV and listening to the Freemason politicians and CEO’s. Those in secret societies don’t lie or keep secrets, do they?

    Hey out of curiosity, you mentioned 36k have died from the virus and the crematoriums “can’t keep up”. The medical “authorities” tell us 700k die annually from the flu. How did the crematorium’s manage in the past? Isn’t 700k bigger than 36k? Maybe we should ask someone from the gov’t, because thinking for yourself can be challenging.

    • 回复: @Pandour
  270. Truth3 说:
    @Alfred

    Just because a bottle of alcohol was found in a crashed car does not prove that the driver was drunk

    But an empty bottle gives pretty good suspicion.

  271. Truth3 说:
    @Rich

    Only a Joo could type that post.

    • 同意: James Scott
    • 回复: @Rich
  272. @Popeye

    I swear me and the wife had this crap Nov. 2019 just as you did. Wife was really sick for 2 weeks but we got over it(we are mid sixty’s). I know a lot of people who were also sick with the same symptons at the same time.
    As for now, I know no one who is sick or has the covid19. I think they’re a little late with their media psyop and government fear campaign.

    • 同意: Desert Fox
  273. @Polymath

    many people here are invincibly ignorant of math

    massive increases in the number of dead people

    If you think the second blockquote is a remotely realistic statement, you’re one of the ‘many people’ in the first blockquote.

    Your frenzied innumerate drivel can be compressed into a simple phrase:

    Buk… buk… buk-buk… buk啊啊啊

    注意事项:

    ① covid19 deaths are statistical noise when compared to normal everyday death tolls.
    ② covid19 is not currently adding significantly to the mortality rates of any age group, in any of the countries in which it is present.

    Have you only just found out that people die?

    • 同意: Alfred
  274. Rurik 说:
    @Bot

    mass media and government instigated fear and panic just ask, ciu bono?

    Well the ((Fed)) is going to ‘print’ trillions of dollars to hand out in secret deals to other banks (and presumably ((Wall Street and Goldman)), et al), to keep the ‘economy going’, but I’m sure all of that is on the ‘up and up’, and it’s all being tightly regulated (not that it even needs to be) by honorable men and women with the interests of the common man at heart.

    I’m sure the fact that they’re keeping it all secret, is just for ‘national security’, and so forth.

    If people were to know exactly who is getting that mullah, then there might be some inconvenient questions asked. Better just to keep it all a secret, like they did at Jekyll Island.

    ...

    Whether or not the pandemic was orchestrated, or if they’re simply taking advantage of a crisis, IDK.

    But as to cui bono, well, it’s going to be the ((same people)) it always is these days.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
    , @Sick of Orcs
  275. mark green 说:
    @Alfred

    Yes, people are dying all the time, particularly the old, obese, and infirm. This is nature talking. Lifespan is normal and natural. And essential.

    The projected severity of this epidemic may very well be exaggerated. Hugely.

    Like ‘climate experts’–who keep predicting catastrophic ‘global warming’–Covid-19 doomsayers may well be suffering from the all-too-familiar human propensity to covet (and enlarge) their sphere of influence.

    Coronavirus could turn out to be the ‘Y2K’ of pandemics; namely, after all the money is spent/lost on a less-than-catastrophic threat, the ‘cure’ turned out to be worse than the disease.

    Keep in mind that, worldwide, some 55,000,000 people die every year. This annual global death rate is nature’s handiwork. Perhaps this year there will be slightly over 55,000,000 human deaths–but not by much. As one deceased rock icon observed: All Things Must Pass.

    Thank you for making this observation:

    Just because a bottle of alcohol was found in a crashed car does not prove that the driver was drunk.

    So true. Cheers!

    • 谢谢: Alfred
  276. refl 说:
    @Amanda

    您在 zerohedge 找到的很棒的评论。
    我几乎不浏览那里的评论,因为大多数都是垃圾。

    但这一点值得引起注意。

  277. with a headline like “correctly estimating”…….

    you are already in negative territory.

    i must remind everyone that predicting the future is still frowned upon by society at large. but gosh darnit stick a guy up there with a dr. in front and a phd. in back and POOF!

    you too, can predict the future.

    and the best part is that folks generally will believe you if you use math. because math is science. and science is never wrong. and americans are scared of math.

    please check out mike adams, the death ranger, of natural news to discover when the chinese are going to invade the u.s.a

    ok, you can now call me a coronadenier……

  278. @Negrolphin Pool

    The above is worded a little sloppily and should read “the total mortality rate converges on what the mortality rate would be considering only that subset’s deaths”.

  279. @ThreeCranes

    I notice in your #多路 screed, you make no reference whatsoever to the 成本.

    That’s almost a Jungian archetype of the government mindset: point to one thing where a 子集 of the output is of technically-acceptable quality (and is built by private contractors at staggeringly high cost), and pretend that it’s
    ① representative of government output; and
    ② anywhere within a bull’s roar of value for money.

    The private sector doesn’t ‘偷工减料‘: you can only do that if you’re indemnified from legal exposure (which usually means having government protection – as vaccine makers do).

    The pure-private sector has to produce things subject to a much more binding budget constraint than government or its protégés. So it aims at a quality level where the marginal benefit of quality improvement is roughly equal to the marginal cost: that’s the 高效 level. It’s the 商业-optimal level, which is the best guess at the 社会-optimal level.

    Contrast that with government ‘major project’ mindsets: once a project gets a political sign-on, the notion of ‘sunk cost’ is never applied. Worse, it is specifically ignored: politicians will never pull the plug on a project mid-stream, even if they know it’s a dud. What’s more likely is that they will allocate additional budget for ‘remediation’ – the ‘fail upwards’ outcome that is only available to .gov and its cronies.

    Also, you’re almost certainly only considering ‘marquee’ projects: that is to say, some 子集 of metropolitan, high-traffic government roads are relatively high-quality… elsewhere, bridges fall apart, road shoulders peel off. There’s a good reason why US road infrastructure gets a ‘D’ from the American Society of Civil Engineers ‘Report Card’. And regional and rural roads won’t be any better – same as in Australia.

    有关声明: 可爱的 was on the legal team that did the contracts for what was then the largest road infrastructure project in our state’s history (‘CityLink’ – a BOOT project constructed by Transurban as head contractor); I have 30 years’ experience of quantitative analysis of policy, including having taught it at a pretty decent university (and advising state and national governments).

  280. Polymath 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    Italy. Spain. Iran too though it’s not “Western” as I’d specified.

    There’s the answer to your “where” question, imbecile, I’m not going to waste any more effort letting you bait me into providing numbers you can easily find for yourself because I’m not fooled by your pretending to be honestly seeking information.

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  281. Polymath 说:
    @Alfred

    F***ing moron, you look at the LOCAL data in the afflicted area, not the data for the whole country. Towns and cities in Northern Italy reporting 3x to 10x times as many total deaths as in the same month a year ago.

    Not worth arguing with assholes who will just play with words and misinterpret numbers all day long and when it gets undeniable in a couple of months will simply disappear rather than admit they were wrong. Do you think the Italian doctors are also in on the hoax?

    • 回复: @glib
  282. UK 说:
    @Spanky

    Dying people have a lot of infections. The more they are dying the more those infections manifest with symptoms as well. Pulling these contributors apart and declaring Wuhan Flu the cause of death is a lot, lot harder than you think.

    In other words, of course dying people when they catch this illness also get cut glass lungs, their immune system is a complete mess.

    • 回复: @Spanky
  283. Pft 说:
    @Ron Unz

    I agree we will most likely need to go with death data and maybe ICU utilization rates for pneumonia. I think deaths attributed to COVID 19 will be overstated in real time though. In the end we will need to look back at the vital statistics and look at mortality rates of all cause and calculate to see if there were statistically significant deaths in 2020 beyond what is normal, and if so how many deaths.

    • 回复: @Sean
  284. @Rich

    It’s not anything arcane or suspicious. It’s just panic-buying, combined with the fact that all the kids are unexpectedly home from school for several additional weeks and eggs are at the top of the breakfast menu. Eggs are always one of the first things to blow out when there’s a blizzard or bad storm.

    Take it from an old grocery clerk whose family has more than 100 years in the business. I know whereof I speak.

  285. niceland 说:
    @Ron Unz

    I totally agree; Mister Inan Dogan, whoever he is, deserves credit for what he did. I have never heard of him either but that’s fine. Actually I also thought everyone was doing it.

    This was buried in a comment I made yesterday.

    I think the most reliable data about the virus is the death rate numbers coming out in recent days in Europe. Looking at the rate of change in these numbers one can see the rate of change in number of infections about x days earlier. Assuming it takes x days on average for the virus to kill the host from infection.

    https://www.unz.com/article/how-covid-19-will-test-the-west/#comment-3790703

    The reason I did is because I have been struggling with the same question for my own country ; How many are indeed infected? And I came to the same conclusion over a week ago – the death rate is the best we have. It’s a product of the infection rate x days before. Assuming the death rate doesn’t change – pick one and calculate.

    I can see some commenters are confused and explaining the extreme difficulty in predicting the infection rate. By using the death rate there is no prediction – but as you have pointed out uncertainty is problematic. It sure is.

    Perhaps using fixed doubling time is accurate enough – in comparison to uncertainty in actual death rate etc. – when the virus is spreading ‘in the wild’. Looking at the death data coming out of Spain, Italy and Germany – plotting the curves and using best fit trend lines I refrained from this idea. A simple exponential doesn’t fit the data, but a third degree poly does quite well.

    To figure out the infection rate I made the assumption x% death rate and two weeks from infection to death. From actual deaths I calculated the number of infected two weeks before. This calculation obviously ends two weeks in the past. This is where the trend line equation comes in to extrapolate to get up to where we are today.

    For Italy the results were two days ago: 1% death rate means ~2,5 millions are infected. 2% death rate, ~1,25m are infected.

    Anyway – I am glad to see someone else is thinking along the same lines.

    • 回复: @refl
    , @Jean-Marie L.
  286. Rich 说:
    @Truth3

    Nope. Christened and Confirmed as a Roman Catholic, just like everyone else in my family going back as far as we can trace. What I don’t understand is how some of you guys think calling everyone with whom you disagree a “joo” is either witty or a winning argument. Crazy stuff.

    • 回复: @Wielgus
  287. Corvinus 说:
    @Uradel666

    “Leave no doubt whatsoever, the “Coronademic” is the Economic project which will be resulted in empowerment and centralization of Authorities, National Army, and National Banking System.”

    There is considerable doubt. You will need to show specific documentary evidence how this project was created by the Rothschilds. Otherwise, like many, you are merely speculating.

    • 同意: james charles
    • 回复: @Uradel666
  288. glib 说:
    @Polymath

    The excess of deaths in the Bergamo-Dalmine area is duly noted and acknowledged but

    a) in all flu seasons there are hot spots
    b) Lombardy, Tehran and Wuhan have some of the worst air quality in the world, particularly for particulate matter (micron and sub-micron dust) in the case of Lombardy, weakening lungs
    c) the region around Bergamo has endemic meningitis. There could be some interaction there, or this virus can attack better an immune system with meningitis antibodies
    d) the dead are still overwhelmingly old people with pre-existing conditions

    I tend to favor environmental explanations because the Bergamaschi are really Longobards, that is, genetically similar to Germans. Of course at this point we can not rule out that there was a local mutation only there, in which case the real pandemic is coming. But here is a good definition of pandemic: total mortality is increasing abnormally around the world. Does it look like it is increasing abnormally to you?

    • 回复: @Weston Waroda
  289. unit472 说:

    I made the same back of the envelope suggestion in January in regards to Wuhan, China to a John Derbyshire column on this. In order for this disease to be showing up internationally the number of infections in Wuhan had to be orders of magnitude greater than what China was admitting. Barring some extraordinary run of bad luck, to have people boarding jets in Wuhan and popping up infected around the world a substantial percentage of the population would have to be infected.

    It occurs to me that people with the statistical skills and medical knowledge of a Professor Ferguson and his team could make a reasonable estimate of national infection rates based on admissions data to local hospitals. Obviously most people who get sick are going to present themselves to local doctors and be referred to the local hospital. They aren’t going to drive 200 miles to see another doctor or insist they be sent to Walter Reed or the Mayo Clinic unless they are a billionaire or Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So compiling local hospital admission data and extrapolating that to the number of people that hospital serves should give you a pretty accurate infection rate per thousand people.

    In my area we now have 49 known infections in the Sarasota/ Manatee county area of just over 800,000 people. Anyone recently arrived from New York or Italy,e.g., can be assumed to have been infected there and subtracted from the local infection rate ( and hopefully some contact tracing done). Not perfect but a lot cheaper and more practical than testing 800,000 people.

  290. Pft 说:
    @Rich

    Interesting question. Why they lost is pretty easy to explain. Outnumbered and lack of resources come to mind. In WWI they never had to fight on their own territory. As a landlocked nation dependent on imports the blockades took their toll. They agreed to peace terms based on Wilsons 14 points. Yet the blockades and starvation continued until they gave in at Versailles where the Wilsons terms were ignored

    WWII was much the same, fighting a war on 2 fronts took its toll. The Soviets had a much larger population, a military that was quite prepared for war and receiving lend lease from the US. The British had little impact aside from some air raids until the US got involved, first with convoying and lend lease then troops to support invasion by land on the Western and Southern Fronts. Even so, an early winter was all that stopped them running through Moscow which could have been game over for Britain and the Soviets.

    Germany was done in by the Japanese, they refused to declare ware on the Soviet Union before Pearl Harbor so was no help there, but then they started a War with the US that meant Germany as Japans ally had to deal with the US on top of the Soviets and British.

    As for post World War, Germany became an occupied nation and still is (as is Japan). Millions died due to general starvation and poor treatment in the camps (displaced persons), more so in Soviet occupied Germany, until the US decided they would use Germany as the first line in the Cold War and increased rations beyond 1500 calories a day.

    Yes, her top scientists all ended up in the US or Soviet Union, including many financiers , industrialists and intelligence officers who were Nazis. Many have made there mark in the West (EU and US), while those companies in the US and UK who helped arm Germany through tech transfers, financing and cartel agreements went back to dealing with many of these German companies (few were executed or imprisoned for long). The BIS which was known as Hitlers Bank now has become the leader of the worlds Central Bank, and the EU dominated by occupied Germany is a version of the Nazi plan for a united Europe dominated by Germany.

    Immigration as seen throughout the West is used to fracture and dilute the native populations. Divide and Rule. Not unique to Germany.

    As for their descent into sexual depravity, well the Franklin School and their Cultural Marxism began in Germany (they fled to NY in 1933) and they are not free of its influence

    There were 2 holocausts in the 20th century, one of them the German Holocaust. They do seem to be faring pretty well with COVID 19 though.

    • 同意: St-Germain
  291. Wielgus 说:
    @Sparkon

    The 1917-8 pandemic trait of primarily killing the young, often military age men, was unusual for flu. Elderly victims tended to survive it, though weakened. Generally flu is more dangerous to the elderly.

  292. glib 说:
    @Alfred

    Alfred, that site is produced by a collaboration of 40+ european state agencies and universities. These are as gold plated data as they come. and they are updated weekly!

    So here we are in a grave pandemic while in Europe total mortality has been declining since Feb. 10. Let me spell it out: FOR THE WHOLE PRESUMED PANDEMIC DURATION MORTALITY HAS CONTINUOUSLY DECREASED IN EUROPE. It boggles the mind to see that people do not pause for a simple fact like that. this is really a site that attracts people who cling to guns and religion (and now, to cherished beliefs in the existence of a pandemic).

    Further, from my other post, this is a very good winter. I am willing to bet that the US curves show the same trend, 2016-2017 much worse than 2019-2020.

    • 回复: @Iris
  293. Desert Fox 说:
    @Rurik

    Agree, this is all explained in the book The Controversy of Zion by Douglas Reed, can be had on amazon.com.

  294. good god, unz, you’re showing your either cluelessnes or complicity yet again! we all know you’re the world’s biggest brainiac just this side of chomsky, but like him can’t–poor genius–seem to be able to tie your own shoes.
    how much bloody evidence do you need to see the whole thing’s a hoax? like all the phoney terror attacks, like the climate change hysteria. r
    remember just one thing:

    EVERYTHING THEY SAY IS A LIE!

    but that’s way over the head of your run of the mill multi-doctorate genius, eh?

    • 同意: Paul C.
  295. @Truth3

    Reverse engineering the infection rate from the mortality rate seems like circular reasoning, as the mortality rate already assumes the infection rate: i.e., mortality = deaths/infections.

    • 回复: @Jean-Marie L.
  296. @Trinity

    I know two people who have it; they work in the hospital (which is why they were able to be tested) in Lisbon. One is asymptomatic and the other has a headache and fever.

    Thinking this is completely fake is schizo-tier. Then again, so is mistaking CFR for IFR, which virtually everyone on the “panic” side is doing. Lots of people are asymptomatic and never even 注意.

    Ron’s model isn’t terrible, but I doubt as overloaded medical facilities do much to fatality rates, unless there are drug treatments which work.

  297. Cyrano 说:

    I don’t know why all you people are cowering. Let me tell you something. If any of you sees that punk – the virus, walking down the street with 2 black eyes – that can mean only one thing: That the virus has already met me and that I’ve beaten the shit out of it.

  298. Iris 说:
    @glib

    You misunderstand the definition of a pandemic.

    Ebola, which had a mortality rate of 90%, was classified “only” as an epidemic, because it affected a limited geographic area.

    Covid-19 was classified as a “pandemic”, the highest-level health emergency the WHO can declare, and the first since the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, because it has spread to become a worldwide disease.

    It is the potential of spreading that matters, not the death rate, which at this early stage of a new disease is an unknown parameter thus irrelevant anyway.

    • 回复: @glib
    , @lavoisier
  299. Sean 说:
    @Pft

    In the end we will need to look back at the vital statistics and look at mortality rates of all cause and calculate to see if there were statistically significant deaths in 2020 beyond what is normal

    That is an excellent point. If all the people dying between now and 2021 are dead by the first of May, 2020 then they cannot die later so the medical infrastructure and staff will lose their effectiveness due to seven months of inactivity. To give the doctors and nurses something to do in summer fall and winter, it might be an idea to prevent all the old and sick people from passing away in the next 28 days.

  300. @Realist

    Your comment is bullshit.

    Nope. The actual problems at Y2K were minor – a few ATMs stopped working. The reason it was not worse is that over the preceding decade, computer code on critical systems had been examined, and any problems were identified and either fixed or worked around.

    • 回复: @Realist
  301. @Polymath

    I’m not fooled by your pretending to be honestly seeking information.

    In brief, you don’t have the data or know where it is.

    Evidently it’s a waste of time seeking information from an arrogant twit like you.

  302. Old fogey 说:
    @glib

    Thank you for this information about Europe. It is very interesting. I have been hoping someone would post similar mortality records in NY for last year and perhaps a few years ago for diseases with similar symptoms as this new virus so we could see if overall mortality had actually risen or whether the cause of death had just changed to Corvid-whatever instead of being shown as pneumonia, COPD, or the flu.

  303. Anonymous[249]• 免责声明 说:
    @Anon

    I’m 26. I don’t have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a week, and abstain from cigarettes.

    The highly specific listing of non-symptoms suggests that the patient did have other co-morbidities, such as obesity, diabetes etc. Did he/she smoke weed? Smoke cigarettes 以往?

    If he/she had been entirely healthy prior to the infection, he could simply have said so.

  304. @glib

    This whole article can be shot down easily.

    1) with new cases already declining, italy’s mortality rate appears to have not increased

    The analysis applies only in the early stages of an epidemic, when the growth in cases is exponential.

    As soon as exponential growth ends, either because a large proportion of the population is infected, or because quarantine measures begin to have effect, then the 1000:1 rule no longer applies.

    • 回复: @glib
  305. @Rurik

    But as to cui bono, well, it’s going to be the ((same people)) it always is these days.

    更像 cui boner? (((Who))) stands to gain via screwing us?

  306. Kira 说:

    Sister Dr. Teresa Forcades 专访。

    她说:

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has Changed the Definition of A Pandemic. WHY?

    The vaccine concocted by BAXTER (US pharmaceutical corp.) was a mixture of two viruses, but THEY WERE NOT RADIATED. WHY?

    The vaccines were distributed in 4 European countries. One doctor tested the vaccine on animals, the animals died.

    https://vimeo.com/7298827

    From: Pandemic: “Crimes and Abuses of the Pharmaceutical Industry”

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-nun-speaks-out-on-the-h1n1-pandemic-the-who-changed-the-official-definition-of-a-pandemic/16059

  307. barankai 说:

    the math might be formally good
    however, it is as good an the input the calcs use
    the main killer is here ARDS kinda pneumonia
    those on regular high dose vitC won’t fall heavily ill if at all
    AND those receiving HDIVC high dose intravenous vitamin c mostly survive (single digit mortality)
    see “Marik protocol” or the CN IV-C reports
    for prevention, simple ascorbic acid works 5-10kmg per day, liposomal even better (can be used in P n 2ry care as well)
    all this “scientifically” proven n used by more n more docs n in the ER/on the ICU
    so, mortality should be (CAN be) reduced to 1/5 of the current figures (at least)

  308. anastasia 说:

    They are now making up a Corona home testing kit, which is a serology test, testing for antibodies. At this point, I agree with Ron Unz’s statistics. Between the home blood testing kit, and the unreliable molecular testing, everyone is surely going to have it. .

    Well thank God the home blood tests kits have not been sold yet. Tonight, doctor on media said that the hospitalizations in New York are “flattening” out. This morning they said on my local channel in New York that there were 50 corona patients in Long Island Hospitals, 12 in ICU and the rest in regular rooms. (They never tell you how many are inhospitals so this was pretty special information).

    On Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk County), there are 26 hospitals, each having between 300 to 700 beds (the average size is 300, but there are a very few very small hospitals with about 100 beds).

    Hospitalizations flattening out? Good grief. There are tens or hundreds of thousands masks going to NY Hospitals, and 4,000 ventilators. Cuomo wants 30,000 ventilators.

    I wonder what hospitals did for ventilators in 2018 when there were 810,000 people hospitalized for influenza, and 61,000 people died of it.

  309. @UK

    The Italian health service hasn’t collapsed though…

    是的。

    It is not able to provide its primary functions.

    • 不同意: UK
    • 回复: @NPleeze
  310. 让我们注意三个关键的冠状病毒参数,医学专家已经估计了这些参数,尽管它们显然取决于特定条件。

    感染倍增期——大概3-6天

    But this didn’t happen in Seattle.

    They are short on tests but we can see that it isn’t doubling based on the fatalities.

    The current models aren’t explaining Germany or Seattle.

  311. NPleeze 说:
    @Anonymous

    Once the virus is brought under control nationally

    How are they doing that? First, whole nation isn’t in lock-down. Second, there’s lots of exceptions to lock-down. Third, there’s no proof whatsoever that even strict lock-down stops the spread of the virus – the countries that have solved it are the ones who did an HIV-type search for every person that a “confirmed” person contacted, and if they tested positive, they were quarantined (not EVERYBODY) and all of their contacts were tested, etc. That way you get all of the carriers out.

    What the US is doing is an utterly idiotic approach.

    Ergo, your conclusion is utterly asinine. But nice comfort for the totalitarians/Communists/ Fascists, who are all on your (totalitarian) side.

    • 回复: @John Johnson
    , @Anonymous
  312. glib 说:
    @Iris

    it appears that the pandemic hit europe with great strength, halving the number of excess deaths from two years prior.

  313. glib 说:
    @James N. Kennett

    it does not matter. the mortality has to increase early in the epidemic. It has not increased.

  314. NPleeze 说:
    @LondonBob

    How do you know the anti-body test is correct? It may respond to antibodies to any coronavirus, or maybe even to TB or flu. What tests have been done to prove it is reliable?

  315. geokat62 说:

    Cynthia McKinney just tweeted this video by George Webb, an investigative journalist in the Washington, DC area.

    Description of George Webb’s video, March 20th, 2020 Meet Wuhan CoronaVirus Patient One – Maatje Benassi:

    Maatje Benassi competes at CSIM – China World Military Games October 20th, 2019 – Belvoir Eagle Page 13.
    November 29th, 2019 /channel/UCrQwHKViOJDWjQGcuoYnew

    A short backgrounder on Webb:

    https://medium.com/@panegron/an-accidental-journalist-and-his-historic-crowd-sourced-investigation-dc5570ecbae9

    • 回复: @bjondo
  316. Maiasta 说:
    @alan kerns

    此链接是必不可少的阅读:十二位医学专家对冠状病毒爆发的看法与 MSM 的官方叙述相矛盾

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

    在这里,彼得·希钦斯提供了对名单上第一位科学家的采访记录,他认为封锁对老年人的危害远远超过病毒可能造成的危害。 他还指出,与 COVID-19 相关的死亡率最高的两个地方(中国和意大利北部)都是世界上空气污染最严重的地区:

    https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/03/an-expert-says-the-current-response-to-the-coronavirus-is-grotesque-absurd-and-very-dangerous.html

  317. NPleeze 说:
    @John Johnson

    A lot of the collapse is due to the EU-imposed austerity. I’ve heard it collapsed before during a flu pandemic but wasn’t able to verify that claim.

    As to this year, I found 这个数据 (翻译) from their Higher Institute of Health interesting:

    In the 10th week of 2020, the number of cases of flu-like syndrome continues to decline and the level of incidence reached this week is within the low intensity threshold. The number of cases estimated this week is about 345,000, for a total of about 6,953,000 cases since surveillance began.

    The following is a summary of the available indicators:

    Serious cases:169 serious cases were reported at 9th week of surveillance, 35 of which died.
    Mortality: During the 10th week of 2020, mortality (total, not only influenza) was slightly higher than expected, with a daily average of 231 deaths compared to the 222 expected.

    ...
    InfluNet-Vir: D… Overall, since the beginning of the season to date, type A strains have accounted for the majority (67%), with prevalence of subtype A(H3N2) (60% of undertyped strains).

    I raise this because I wonder if they just reclassified some flu tests as coronavirus. Italy averages an estimated 13,000 flu deaths per year, but in some bad years the numbers have reached

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  318. Here’s a bunch of doctors, scientists, and researchers who are skeptical about the dangerousness of corona, collected into one post.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

    • 回复: @obwandiyag
  319. @glib

    But here is a good definition of pandemic: total mortality is increasing abnormally around the world. Does it look like it is increasing abnormally to you?

    Wuhan, Tehran and Milan represent events of abnormally increasing mortality that are swiftly being overtaken.

  320. IT'S ME 说:
    @Ron Unz

    That’s worth a look ->
    大量无证感染可促进新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV2)的快速传播
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221.full.pdf

  321. @Hippopotamusdrome

    Coronavirus may have already infected half of UK, study says

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

    It’s an interesting paper, but not yet peer-reviewed, and “subject to be updated at any time”.

    It looks at the death figures for the UK and Italy, and divides the population of each country into two groups: a small group who are “at risk of severe disease”; and a much larger group that consists of everybody else. Deaths occur only in the first group.

    If the group “at risk of severe disease” is 1% of the population, then fitting the figures for deaths in the 15 days from the first death gives conventional results. If the group “at risk of severe disease” is only 0.1% of the population, then by day 15 more than half the population has already been infected. I suppose the epidemic must progress further in order to reach the small number of people in the “at risk of severe disease” group. The paper calls for serological testing to determine the properties of the epidemic – which is sensible advice in any case.

    It is a speculative piece of work whose purpose seems to be to make people stop and think (and to give the authors 15 minutes of fame).

    IMHO the idea that only 0.1% of the population is at risk of severe disease is hard to believe – unless most of us have an as yet undiscovered immunity. The most dangerous known risk factors for a severe case of coronavirus are hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease; the proportion of people in the UK who have these diseases is, respectively, 6%, 19%, and 3%.

    An exacting test of the model would be to predict the course of the epidemic after day 15 (assuming no protective measures such as quarantine). Presumably the number of deaths would soon start to decrease in the “0.1%” case, as herd immunity takes effect, and the total number of dead would be much less than in the “1%” (conventional) case. In the “1%” case, deaths would increase for a much longer time, and reach a much higher total.

    • 回复: @James N. Kennett
  322. Skeptikal 说:
    @Eugene Norman

    “Yeh but lacrosse (if it is indeed growing faster than football which I doubt) will have an obvious peak, when you run out of school girls in private schools. ”

    不要荒唐。
    Lacrosse is a very popular intermural sport in public high schools and public and private American schools and colleges. Nevertheless it will arrive at a top limit by the nature of American society.
    I think the analogy is excellent.

  323. @NPleeze

    A lot of the collapse is due to the EU-imposed austerity. I’ve heard it collapsed before during a flu pandemic but wasn’t able to verify that claim.

    It did not collapse before the flu.

    They are out of hospital beds and lack medical staff and equipment. All planned surgeries have been postponed. That has nothing to do with austerity.

    They had more hospital beds per capita than the US before this started.

    I raise this because I wonder if they just reclassified some flu tests as coronavirus. Italy averages an estimated 13,000 flu deaths per year, but in some bad years the numbers have reached

    Flu doesn’t fill up hospitals and take out medical staff to where they can’t function.

    Why are you trying to downplay what is happening? The same thing is about to happen in NYC.
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/nycs-elmhurst-hospital-at-breaking-point-as-13-patients-die-in-24-hour-span/

    Is that also the fault of the EU?

    • 同意: L.K
    • 回复: @NPleeze
  324. anastasia 说:

    What if what the Chinese people were screaming in Wuhan were true? Certainly living in these hi-rises, living so close to one another, these apartment dwellers would certainly know at least of couple of people were sick with corona virus or who died of it, but apparently, despite the concentrated living in these hi rises, those people screaming out the window thought it was all “fake.” There is another video put out by a guy who lives in China and has a friend in Wuhan who told him that he knew of no one who was sick or died of corona virus. How is that possible when people live so close together there?

    What if China had engaged in a scam, a scam to spook the west. A scam where they knew they could use WHO and the CDC as useful idiots, knowing how greedy they are and how much money they could make off a pandemic that they have been itching for for many years.

    What if China knew they could also use the people like Bill Gates, and other globalists, who were also itching for pandemic controls on society, all going to pandemic corona virus seminars as late as October 2019.

    What if China did not underestimate the number of victims, but OVERESTIMATED them, or made them up entirely? Was it the numbers that spooked us, or the hysterical reaction of the Chinese that gave us the idea that we too had to take the same measures to “stop the contagion”. The Chinese had to know that if they acted hysterically enough, and maybe even filed a new strain of a SARS-type corona virus, that what they did would influence any action we took. Maybe it was all a scam to destroy the economy of the west, devalue the dollar, and get rid of us entirely?

    China not only could use their greedy useful idiots at WHO and CDC to help them in their scamming the west, but also individuals like Dr. Drostein of Berlin, the Covid-19 and SARS test maker, who is going to make millions, perhaps billions with this test creation. Not only did theyhave useful idiots to help them, but alliles too, like Iran (just watching the Health Minister wipe his brow every 10 seconds while talking about corona virus, which he came down with the next day, would make anyone suspicious), and maybe even in Italy, who has a vibrant trade with Iran, and was taking out mega loans from the Chinese , which was starting to annoy the US. I don’t know what the US did to the Italians, but I noticed that immediately before the outbreak, Italian banks were starting to close the accounts of Iranians who were living there for a long time.

    Anyway, do any of them want Trump in office? Does China, Iran, Syria, Russia, NATO countries, the globalists, the media, the leftists in America – anyone, except the deplorables like US hegemony?

    If it were a scam by the Chines, it was an effective plan to get rid of the US once and for all.

    I hear that lockdown days are over and Wuhan is corona-free.

    • 同意: Hippopotamusdrome
    • 谢谢: refl
    • 回复: @Grahamsno(G64)
    , @utu
  325. NPleeze 说:
    @John Johnson

    They are out of hospital beds and lack medical staff and equipment.

    Cutbacks due to austerity would yield precisely that result, wouldn’t it? Dohhh!

    They are out of hospital beds and lack medical staff and equipment.

    Not in the whole country – just the northern, hard-hit regions.

    That has nothing to do with austerity.

    So you claim, contrary to all logic of what austerity means. You may be right that even without the austerity it would have been overwhelmed, but it’s more overwhelmed with it.

    And oh … here look! 268,057 hospital beds in 2000, 192,548 in 2017. That’s a loss of … 76,000 hospital beds, about 1/4th. But I’m sure they were all just useless wasted beds in 2000, right? Plus different regions were hit more or less hard by the austerity – the poorer regions (whether I gather the epicenter is) more hard.

    Flu doesn’t fill up hospitals

    Not every year but flu severity varies per season.

    Why are you trying to downplay what is happening?

    I’m just pointing out indisputable facts, which bother you because you are a hysterical, fear-driven robot being programmed by your masters to tolerate indefinite martial law. The easily scared/programmed automatons are a much bigger danger to me than this over-hyped virus.

  326. @NPleeze

    What the US is doing is an utterly idiotic approach.

    Ergo, your conclusion is utterly asinine. But nice comfort for the totalitarians/Communists/ Fascists, who are all on your (totalitarian) side.

    We needed fascist solutions two months ago. No one on establishment right or left was taking this seriously.

    What is the minimal government solution here? Wave flags and quote Adam Smith?

    I am beginning to think we are headed for a return of 1930s Germany style street wars between fascists and communists as the people grow tired of the “pretend everything is fine” right/left establishment. I have no doubt that minimal government conservatism and reality-hating liberalism are contributing to a growing and underlying belief that the establishment is incompetent and unable to serve the best interest of the public.

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  327. @Rich

    Why have the German people gone downhill?

    They’ve been jewed.

    Get a copy of “The Culture Of Critique,” the most comprehensive explanation of jewing.

  328. Anonymous[124]• 免责声明 说:

    Mush-premised assumptions, poor & flawed math, invalid statistical analysis, failing to account enough pertinent scientific considerations (and failing to discount the invalid pseudo-medical/pseudo-scientific crap emitted by medical stooges serving neoliberalism).

    Failing to account the number of false positives & false negatives & deaths caused by agents other than Covid-19 where Covid-19 is, or is believed, present in the dying person…….etc.

    Poor statistical analysis, as in Ron Unz’s wildly statistically invalid article arguing that crime correlates with race, arguing so to “prove” Blacks are genetically disposed to commit violent or invasive crime.

    A rebutting empirical consideration: Compare the graphs set here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

    How sad for so many who have deified Mr. Unz.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  329. Uradel666 说:
    @Corvinus

    No, I won’t.
    Your statement is based on fallacy. You have the determination and interpretation of law mixed with this its realization.
    You don’t establish paternity here. Nor, you do govern the proof of facts in a legal proceeding. Otherwise, no Article over here on 乌兹网 would be relevant and legal without “Law of Evidence”, even yours.

    But, make no doubt about it, there is mass of evidence as for this.
    Sorry, but didn’t you watch Trump impeachment “trial” or ever heard of “conclusive items of circumstantial evidence”. Or “standard of evidence” and stuff? The specific documentary evidence, really? Do you need a bully pulpit?

    If there is considerable doubt about my statement prove this doubt! The best of all would be proving on your part that “physical space” does exist. If you prove that I will show the specific documentary evidence of Rothschild case. What about “Big Bang”, can you show me “specific documentary evidence” of that? Or, can you succeed in proving any other statement claimed over here? You cannot even prove that your own mind does exist.
    Can you outline your own statement and prove it?
    LOL

    • 回复: @Corvinus
  330. Anonymous[412]• 免责声明 说:
    @NPleeze

    I’m in a European country. We are testing all contacts and family of confirmed cases in addition to wider “random” testing (starting with medical personnel, supermarket staff etc.). Only essential services are working. Like I’ve said, the R0 ratio here is probably less than 0.1.

    In the US, individual states that follow this programme will fare much better (IMO).

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  331. NPleeze 说:
    @John Johnson

    the establishment is incompetent and unable to serve the best interest of the public.

    To the contrary, the establishment is malevolent and evil and now that they have the ability to set up their global totalitarian technocratic big brother police state, that’s where they’re herding the sheep. Of course some people aren’t sheep, and the malevolent rulers usu. order their baa-ing sheep to “liquidate” them. Hence my earlier comment about where the true danger lies.

    What is the minimal government solution here? Wave flags and quote Adam Smith?

    Provide useful information to enable people to make informed decisions, instead of hiding or failing to collect that information. And protecting those who get ill or reasonably want to maintain a social distance and can’t go to work. Maybe some tax relief, but without blowing their limited wad in the first wave.

    This ain’t going away, and you can’t self-destruct society because old, weak people are unwilling to take the necessary precautions to live well into their 90s. We don’t force people to not eat sugar or saturated fat, or to exercise, at gunpoint either, although all those things are vastly more deadly than this virus could be under the most hysterical proclamations.

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  332. NPleeze 说:
    @Anonymous

    individual states that follow this programme will fare much better (IMO).

    I would think so too but am not aware of any state doing this.

    It also needs to be combined with random testing of people around the country b/c it may be that the virus is far more prevalent than the incompetent liars in charge claim.

    Where can I see the methodology and test results of your country?

  333. bjondo 说:
    @geokat62

    乔治:

    Still there are many researchers and seekers of truth who distrust Webb and are wary of his background. These concerns are not unfounded as in a deleted sequence of videos where Webb believes he’s trapped in his New York hotel room and about to be eliminated by a hit squad George made some startling admissions.

    In previous vlogs, Webb speaks of his admiration for Mossad, Israels infamous spy agency but in the several videos he made in his hotel room he spoke about receiving assistance from French, Dutch and Israeli intelligence. He also spoke about his admiration for the ‘old guard Mossad’ and laments the new incarnations.

    In the end, Webb managed to leave the hotel and continued his daily investigation as if he hadn’t made these admissions.

    It was these revelations, and random comments about his admiration for Mossad’s trade craft, that lead many in the movement to label Webb a phony and claim that Webb was leading people away from Pizzagate and Pedogate investigations that were going on simultaneously.

    https://steemit.com/georgewebb/@v4vapid/365-days-of-citizen-journalist-george-webb

    Maybe GW does some good. Can’t remember.
    Stopped paying attention to him some 3-4 years ago.

    5ds

    • 谢谢: geokat62
    • 回复: @Paul C.
  334. Trinity 说:

    Lacrosse is fun to watch, I only wish could have had the opportunity to play the sport. Where I went to high school, football was king and I don’t even know if many people I attended school with even knew what the hell lacrosse was back then. Former football great Jim Brown was an excellent lacrosse player from what I have read and I have started watching lacrosse and hockey since boycotting the NFL 3 years ago.

    Back to the ONLY STORY ON THE PLANET, the coronavirus. Even MORE IMPORTANT than the cure, we need to find out how this thing started. I think it is safe to assume that at least 50% of Americans buy into the theory that this virus was manufactured by man and not by Mother Nature. Those responsible need to be brought to justice especially given the death toll figures that have come out. But then again, can we even trust the data we are spoon fed? After all, are these not some of the same people that told us that Iraq had WMD. Welcome to Clown World, folks. Mask up, glove up and get suited and booted, this shit is getting deep.

  335. Adrian 说:
    @UncommonGround

    They also showed images of the lungs of people with corona and explained how it causes death. The lungs are progressively taken by the virus so that it doesn’t work anymore properly until the patient dies. It’s really not nice.

    Like the lungs of this New Zealand dairy farmer who was dying of swine flu, until something came in between:

    • 回复: @Adrian
    , @Adrian
  336. Alfred 说:
    @Spanky

    People with chronic illnesses die all the time. Chronavirus may have expedited this process. But the numbers out of Italy show that mortality is not even that of a bad flu season. Please try and understand the implications of this map.

    I was also fooled. I confess. I panicked. I extrapolated cases. I also had to go through the denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance processes. All I can do now is to wish you a pleasant trip on this mental journey. 🙂

    Mortality monitoring in Europe
    http://www.euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html

    • 回复: @Spanky
  337. Very simply!
    How the body immune system works.
    Foreign objects bacteria and viruses are detected in the blood stream.
    These are sent to the spleen. in the spleen these foreign objects are investigated their pattern detected and body start to create K-cels. K -cels get attached to foreign particles in blood stream (in this case viruses.) These larger particles get detected by white cells that kill and surround the virus.
    Than this cluster is identified in kidney and sent into urine stream.
    It takes body a long time to start to create K-cels.
    Vaccine is nothing else than inert virus not causing a disease but is by its shape giving to spleen information how to create K-cels.
    ………………………………………………………………。
    Eggs in medical laboratories are used to grow vaccines. (harmless viruses.)

  338. It’s a hoax. Seriously, it is hard to believe how many brain dead zombie sheep there are. Soon .gov will declare victory, only after tightening the chains a bit more.

    • 同意: Trinity
  339. Alfred 说:
    @ThreeCranes

    I worked for the government designing and building roads … The private sector rebels against such oversight because their standards are so low that they find such enforced excellence completely alien to their business model.

    In a previous existence, I worked as a civil engineer for a major contracting company in London. I helped build a road that was a part of the M25 project (the outer road encircling London). It was in 1971/72. A desperate time for contractors. My company bid to build at a loss – that is what everyone else was doing at that time. The “business plan” was to make a profit out of “dayworks”. That is the term to describe work that was not in the design or changes to the design. The site manager was a Mr Rush. I am not joking. That described his very well.

    The “clerk of the works”, the inspector for the local government paying for the work, was buddies with the site manager. I got away with lots of small setting-out mistakes. The geometry of the road was not quite as planned. He could have easily made my life impossible. His leniency was obviously related to having some sort of understanding with the site manager.

    I totally agree with you. 🙂

  340. Looks like the Corona virus pandemic panic is the result of bad science, social media hyperventilation and media bullshit. Thus:

    Coronavirus may have already infected half of UK, study says

    and killing how many? Just over 400, for a fatality rate of about point three noughts three percent. Mostly old or very old people. Mostly people with other conditions, probably several other conditions. Except out of respect for the very small number of fatalities, I would say LOL.

    然后是这样的:

    12名专家质疑冠状病毒恐慌

    Yep, the corona virus has been a disaster all right. It’s meant massive looting of the treasury and disruption of medical services without a scrap of decent scientific evidence in justification. A catastrophic failure by the global elite, medical experts and the ranks of academia always anxious to get in on a new research gravy train.

    • 同意: 9/11 Inside job, Trinity
  341. Alfred 说:
    @L.K

    The 25-year-old said the disease started with a common cold before progressing to pneumonia, where it got so bad he was waking up at night unable to breathe.

    That is one person. But how many British were in Wuhan who recovered without feeling so ill?

    Did the Guardian seek them out and try to interview them as well or did they look for someone who had a miserable time. If he were 80 years old and had a bad heart, he might have died. It would have been considered a coronavirus death.

    This guy never went on a ventilator or had oxygen – he would have mentioned it otherwise.

    I am sure not a single British person died in Wuhan. Otherwise the Guardian would have mentioned it and interviewed his family. 🙂

    At the end of the clip he advises people to go straight to a hospital to “have it checked out” when they feel the flu coming on. That advice alone is enough to make hospitals overflow and to be unable to cope with the elderly and those with other health problems

    The Guardian is a great organ of manipulation. Many people think that it is the same Guardian of 50 years ago – which opposed the Vietnam war. It is now committed to all the “nation-building” possible in the Middle East.

  342. Wielgus 说:
    @Rich

    Yeah. Some people on here would like to be Julius Streicher but cannot aspire to such intellectual heights. After all, Streicher managed to score 106 when given an IQ test at Nuremberg.

  343. refl 说:
    @Pandour

    there were such things as the Spanish flu and the Black Plague

    The Black Plague happened during the middle ages and would have been treatable with modern day antibiotics.
    The Spanish Flu happened at the end of WWI, which was possibly the most devastating moment of modern history in developed countries.
    Arguably, it served to cover up the dismal conditions, in which the US shipped its troops to Europe, and above all it covered up the murderous British hunger blockade against Germany. I would like to know, which countries were hit hardest and how conditions were in the different european countries at that monent.

    People do not die of a specific flu in the first place, but they are debilitated and die of the conditions they are exposed to when ill.
    Again: hardly anyone has been proven to die OF corona, they have died WITH corona. Health systems are failing in Italy, they certainly are failing in third world style health care conditions in the US. The name of the disease is austerity, not corona.
    And indeed, public officialls throughout the western world are highly corrupt and incompetent. Just think of the caricature of the Trump impeachment, or for the dismal performance of the EU. An unprecedented disaster that is invisible and need not be proven is a gift from heaven for these leaders.

    Still not believing in corona. My disbelief is growing by the day, the more I hear the poor arguments that are ment to convert me.

  344. Adrian 说:
    @Adrian

    Published Research and Articles on Vitamin C as a Consideration for Pneumonia, Lung Infections, and the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19)

    by Graham Player, PhD, Andrew W. Saul, Damien Downing, MBBS, MRSB and Gert Schuitemaker, PhD

    [更多]

    (OMNS Mar 22, 2020) In 1936 Gander and Niederberger found that vitamin C lowered fever and reduced pain in pneumonia patients. Also in 1936, Hochwald independently reported similar results. In 1946 Slotkin further reported that “Vitamin C has been used routinely by the general surgeons in the Millard Fillmore Hospital, Buffalo, as a prophylactic against pneumonia, with complete disappearance of this complication.”

    It is one thing to be sick from a virus and another thing entirely to die from a viral-instigated disease. A 1994 randomised double-blind trial involving vitamin C/placebo supplementation was conducted on 57 elderly patients admitted to hospital with acute respiratory infections (bronchitis and bronchopneumonia). Using a clinical scoring system based on major symptoms of the respiratory condition, patients supplemented with the vitamin fared significantly better than those on placebo. This was particularly the case for those commencing the trial most severely ill, many of whom had very low plasma and white cell vitamin C concentrations on admission.

    Vitamin C supports your immune system. Vitamin C helps to kill viruses and reduces the symptoms of infection. It’s not a COVID-19 “cure,” but nothing is. It might just save your life, though, and will definitely reduce the severity of the infection. If someone tells you it’s not proven, consider two things:

    Nothing is proven to work against COVID-19, because it is a new virus
    Vitamin C has worked against every single virus including influenzas, pneumonia, and even poliomyelitis.
    In the medical literature, there are more than 64,000 published articles and studies on Vitamin C available at The U.S. National Library of Medicine National Center for Biotechnology Information. Vitamin C is arguably one of the most researched substances in existence. Much of the research is very positive. Ignorance of the research, benefits and use of Vitamin C is not a valid excuse for it not to be used as a therapy, particularly when there are no other known medications available, and it is not likely to cause damage, and the published research is readily accessible for everybody.

    Following is a brief selection of articles and research from the medical literature that are educational and helpful in considering the use of Vitamin C.

    Article Title Link (All Links Accessed and Active March 19,2020)
    Vitamin C may affect lung infections https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2099400/
    Vitamin C for preventing and treating pneumonia https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23925826
    Vitamin C and Infections https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5409678/
    Vitamin C Can Shorten the Length of Stay in the ICU: A Meta-Analysis. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30934660
    Combined vitamin C, hydrocortisone, and thiamine therapy for patients with severe pneumonia https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30029205
    Vitamin C and acute respiratory infections. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10488881
    Vitamin C supplementation and respiratory infections: a systematic review. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15605943
    Is Vitamin C Beneficial to Patients with CAP? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27363830
    Vitamin C, the Miracle Cure: 60 Minutes Living Proof

    Vitamin C, respiratory infections and the immune system https://www.cell.com/trends/immunology/comments/S1471-4906(03)00286-2
    Vitamin C and Community-acquired Pneumonia https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/ajrccm.184.5.621a
    Vitamin C and pneumonia and other severe infections https://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/hemila/VitC_pneumonia.htm
    Vitamin C and SARS coronavirus https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/52/6/1049/731701
    Could Vitamin C be the Cure for Deadly Infections? https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/could-deadly-infections-be-cured-vitamin-c-180963843/
    High-dose Intravenous Vitamin C as a Successful Treatment of Viral Infections https://riordanclinic.org/2014/02/high-dose-intravenous-vitamin-c-as-a-successful-treatment-of-viral-infections/
    Mitochondria and the Coronavirus – The Vitamin C Connection https://www.evolutamente.it/mitochondria-the-coronavirus-the-vitamin-c-connection-part-3/
    Chinese Medical Team Reports Successful Treatment of Coronavirus Patients with High-Dose Vitamin C https://www.dr-rath-foundation.org/2020/03/chinese-medical-team-report-successful-treatment-of-coronavirus-patients-with-high-dose-vitamin-c/
    Intravenous vitamin C as adjunctive therapy for enterovirus/rhinovirus induced acute respiratory distress syndrome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28224112
    Gander J, Niederberger W (1936) Vitamin C in der Pneumonia Behandlung [Vitamin C in the treatment of pneumonia]. Münch Med Wschr 83:2074-7 https://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/hemila/T1.pdf or https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7b37/490dfcdc7a98ba7e3bd744a15886873701db.pdf
    Can Vitamin C Prevent and Treat Coronavirus? https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228745
    How to Use Vitamin C During Illness http://www.doctoryourself.com/cathcart_C_summary.html
    Shanghai Government Officially Recommends Vitamin C for COVID-19 http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n16.shtml
    Vitamin C Infusion for the Treatment of Severe 2019-nCoV Infected Pneumonia https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533
    Vitamin C and COVID-19 Coronavirus http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n14.shtml
    Three Intravenous Vitamin C Research Studies Approved for Treating COVID-19 http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n12.shtml
    Early Large Dose Intravenous Vitamin C is the Treatment of Choice for 2019-nCov Pneumonia http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n11.shtml
    Vitamin C and its Application to the Treatment of nCoV Coronavirus http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n09.shtml
    Hospital-based Intravenous Vitamin C Treatment for Coronavirus and Related Illnesses http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n07.shtml
    Vitamin C Protects Against Coronavirus http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n04.shtml

  345. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @Paul C.

    I confess to being a news addict for over half a century.Here in Croatia I used to buy all the three major newspapers daily not to mention weeklies and English language publications.On the tube I tune in to the Russian English-language RT,France 24,Brit SKY News,etc.,not to mention the alternative media on the net.Methinks that I have a critical approach to the mainstream media.Judging from many of the comments here,one would think the U.S. is on a different planet.Epidemiologist,medical professionals and other credible sources the world over to many account for nothing.In the U.S. in 2018-2019 season there were 32,400 flue-related deaths.Watched a Brit reporter in the morgue in Bergamo this morning.He said that the army last night picked up and carried off dozens of coffins to make room for more.from the morgue and since then that the morgue was again filled to near capacity-dozens of newly arrived coffins pictured.You surprisingly overlook the fact that the cremation rate in the U.S. is around 53 per cent-2018 stats-the rest being burials.Yes,thinking for yourself can be challenging but one must first make an attempt to do so.

    • 回复: @Paul C.
  346. refl 说:
    @niceland

    I am poor at math, but I figure out that
    1) the numbers are hugely spoilt, because cases counted as Corona death for the largest part have died WITH not FROM corona, and it is still not clear what the test actually measures.
    2) the largest part of the infections have not been and probably will never be counted, as most people with a regular flu stay in bed and do not approach hospitals (and less in current conditions).
    3) in these circumstances, to count the time from infection to symptoms to death is guess work (politely speaking)
    4) as the thing is developing in ever more freakish ways, the necessity for the authorities to come up with sizable numbers to justify their reaction is plain to see.
    5) in the background, there are more then enough issues that said authorities prefer not to be exposed:
    Corruption up to the highest level in government and even the WHO, having ruined health systems across the western world through austerity,
    political sideshows like blaiming everything on Trump in the US, protecting the dismal performance of governments in EU countries etc.

    I cannot see the point about the math here.

    • 回复: @niceland
  347. mark green 说:
    @Alfred

    Thank you for the astonishing graph. If accurate, it deserves a considerable attention.

    I couldn’t help but notice however that the date given at the bottom of the pie chart was dated ‘March 17, 2022’. I presume this was just a misprint–(and not a sly indicator of fabricated stats.) Also, does ‘prior illness’ mean the same thing as ‘pre-existing illness’? Let’s hope so. After all, virtually everyone has had a ‘prior illness’.

    That said, to put this trillion-dollar ‘pandemic’ into perspective, we should remember that, as of 2/25/20, the US has has suffered approx. 1,000 deaths from the dreaded Covid-19 virus. By comparison, as many as 60,000 Americans die from the flu annually (according to the CDC).

    As for China–a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people–Coronavirus has claimed the lives of fewer than 3,400 people. The annual flu by comparison claims between 290,000 and 650,000 lives worldwide (according to World Health Organization.)

    Perhaps we are being less threatened by a virus than by viral hysteria.

    • 同意: Peripatetic Commenter
    • 回复: @Telemachos
  348. Anon[295]• 免责声明 说:

    https://covidtracking.com/data/

    You might like this dataset Ron. It has positives, negatives, pendings (in some places), hospitalizations, and deaths broken down by state and territory.

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  349. Mb562 说:

    Very interesting approach. My question mr. Unz is why is the death rate an independent variable. If the number of cases is much higher then the death rate changes. Unless the death rate is based on people in the hospital are a control group

  350. thotmonger 说:
    @Kratoklastes

    It was Anderson and/or May, big gun mathematicians, who posed some models >20 years ago that greatly exaggerated the coming incidence of Mad Cow in people. Whew. Let’s be happy they were wrong. foster

    I think Ron, while doing his thing of pattern recognition, got a chill and saw the shadow of Grim Reaper pass by. And who can blame him? Unfettered Wuhan with case fatalities of 2, 3, 4% plus? Ooo. This germ looks to be a Bear. No time for a hurricane party, folks.

    That said, there are many terrible pandemics now among us. Sugar/obesity. Endocrine disruptors. Aluminum. Autogeddon… They are all dreadful beasts and I have seen their paw strike all too often. Maybe Wuhan will scare us straight? Or at least foster a return to art and more soulful music to recover our humanity. Like here:

  351. @NPleeze

    I find it interesting that Ron didn’t respond to your comment.

  352. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

    Not sure how relevant this is, but this is very, very peculiar.

    Half shows no symptoms, the other half just mild cold like symptoms.

    I wish every country does testing and present the data + findings like Iceland.

  353. Wielgus 说:
    @Alfred

    British army doctors in WW2 routinely did that to badly wounded soldiers. One soldier at Normandy 1944 remembered a doctor near the front line giving a fatal dose to a soldier with his brain partly exposed by a wound. The soldier might have survived but would have been severely brain-damaged.

  354. @James N. Kennett

    The key to the Oxford paper appears to be that, when they reduce the size of the group at risk of severe disease from 1% to 0.1%, they leave the mortality of that group unchanged. Their “0.1%” case therefore amounts to reducing the mortality in the population as a whole by a factor of 10.

    This change in the model will inevitably correspond to a large increase in the number of infected cases. As in Ron Unz’ equation for the early stage of the epidemic, when modeling a fixed number of deaths, a factor of 10 decrease in mortality rate corresponds to a factor of 10 increase in the numbers of infected.

    感染人数 = 死亡人数 / Mortality_Rate *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)。

    All the Oxford paper is saying is that, if the real mortality rate is ten times smaller than most people believe, the number of infected people is up to ten times larger; so large that the UK is close to achieving herd immunity; and Italy had reached 80% infected by 6th March. This is a doubtful idea, because we have data for 3 subsequent weeks in Italy. and the epidemic has not yet peaked.

    • 同意: ThreeCranes
    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
    , @NPleeze
  355. Wielgus 说:
    @refl

    Wartime conditions and unusual personal mobility certainly spread the 1918 pandemic around. Even then, there were other major diseases around – cholera and typhus were big killers on the Eastern Front and the Middle East.

  356. Realist 说:
    @James N. Kennett

    The reason it was not worse is that over the preceding decade, computer code on critical systems had been examined, and any problems were identified and either fixed or worked around.

    I don’t buy it. Then why all the last minute panic? Many people acted like goofy bastards…many corporations ask for volunteers to stay overnight to watch for problems.

  357. anastasia 说:

    WAS IT JUST A MAJOR PROPAGANDA EVENT?
    大纪元

    CHINA-US NEWS

    [更多]

    Chinese Regime Aims to Take Advantage of Pandemic to Fulfill Its Ambitions
    BYFRANK FANG
    March 26, 2020Updated: March 26, 2020
    FONT BFONT SText size
    打印
    While many countries around the world are still struggling to contain the outbreak of theChinese Communist Party(CCP) virus inside their borders, Beijing is seeking to take advantage of the global health crisis to advance its economic goals.

    广告
    Horizon Advisory, a U.S.-based independent consultancy, reviewed recent policies and notices announced by Chinese central government agencies, regional governments, and research institutes. Itsreport, published on March 15, found that Beijing began formulating strategies since February to fulfill its ambitions while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus was spreading across the country.

    The Epoch Times refers to thenovel coronavirusas theCCP virusbecause the Chinese Communist Party’s coverup and mismanagement allowed the virus to spread throughout China and create a global pandemic.

    Promote Chinese Manufacturing
    “Beijing intends to use the global dislocation and downturn to attract foreign investment, to seize strategic market share and resources—especially those that force dependence [on China],” the report stated.

    This would include promoting the use of Chinese technologies, such as tech giant Huawei’s 5G infrastructure.

    This month, several Chinese officials expressed their views on how the epidemic could provide economic opportunities for China.

    On March 4, Han Jian, director of the China Industrial Economic Association, which operates under the Ministry of Civil Affairs, wrote on state-run media Xinhua Daily that “It is possible to turn the [pandemic] crisis into an opportunity—to increase different countries’ trust and dependence on ‘Made in China.’”

    A day later, the municipal government in Chengdu, the capital of southwestern China’s Sichuan province, told a local daily about its economic plan in relation to the virus.

    “Make use of the important window after the epidemic and focus on the strategic opportunities, such as the new technological revolution it will bring about,” the Chengdu government stated. It also called for local sectors to be more “deeply integrated” into the global supply chain, pointing to the importance of developing local sectors such as robotics and biomedicine.

    On March 12, Song Zhiping, former representative to China’s rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress, and former chairman of state-owned company China National Building Materials Group, wrote in a commentary published in state-run newspaper People’s Daily that China will “turn crisis into opportunity.”

    As global industrial chains face the challenge of “reorganization” following China’s epidemic, Chinese firms should enhance their competitiveness, he wrote.

    Ties with Europe
    Meanwhile, the Chinese regime plans to make use of the pandemic to court closer relations with European countries.

    “Beijing intends to reverse recent U.S. efforts to counteract China’s subversive international presence; at the same time to chip away at U.S.-Europe relations. In other words, Beijing will use COVID-19 to accelerate its long-standing, strategic offensive,” Horizon Advisory wrote, pointing to recent remarks made by Chinese professor Tian Feilong, a deputy professor at Beihang University.

    Tian, in a March 12 article published on an online academic platform called China-US Focus, stated: “Europe may fall into an economic downturn under the blow of the epidemic. Unprecedented mutual needs and opportunities in China-EU economic cooperation will emerge and deepen, including in 5G industries.”

    Tian added that the downturn would prompt European countries, Russia, and China to form a new “economic order,” so that they will cooperate with each other and less with the United States.

    Follow Frank on Twitter: @HwaiDer

  358. @refl

    Unfortunately , corruption is rife everywhere in the World. While staying in Italy in October I chanced upon an Italian news program about corruption , the question was asked : “Which country is the most corrupt in the World?” To my surprise the answer came :”The United States ” and “Why?” , the interviewee responded “Because of the lobbyists”. The initial beneficiaries of the Coronavirus hoax are going to be medical and pharmaceutical companies (PIC)who spend the most on lobbying in Washington , Trump has already signed an over \$8 billion spending bill which will largely benefit the PIC. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have been corrupted by money and as the saying goes “They are two wings of the same bird of prey “. As someone noted how come did Nancy Pelosi have a 1400 page bill ready to go with alrgess to fight the phony Coronavirus pandemic? It is likely that much of it was written by lobbyists .Because of the corrosive effect of money, bribes and honeypots corruption is a problem everwhere andthe WHO and the CDC are not immune, see:”Politics and corruption at the World Health Organization(WHO)”globalresearch.ca , also see:
    “CDC Corruption: Scientists on the inside slam the agency.”prn.fm

  359. Adrian 说:
    @Adrian

    纽约邮报:

    New York hospitals treating coronavirus patients with vitamin C

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/?utm_source=facebook_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons&fbclid=IwAR27w56FfeA-vWksp3KQjsMEKXSKBTTeKTYp7xPb0QX7oYuygj5LX8SSgNg

    British Daily Mail:

    [更多]

    New York hospitals are treating coronavirus patients with high dosages of VITAMIN C after promising results from China
    Dr Andrew Weber says he has been immediately giving his intensive-care patients 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C
    The Long Island-based pulmonologist and critical-care specialist with Northwell Health says patients are given three to four doses a day 
    The regimen is based on experimental treatments that were done in China
    Jason Molinet, a spokesman for Northwell, says Vitamin C is being ‘widely used’ as a coronavirus treatment throughout the health system 
    A clinical trial into the effectiveness of intravenous vitamin C patients with coronavirus was conducted on February 14 at Zhongnan Hospital in Wuhan :

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149191/New-York-hospitals-treating-corona-patients-6000-milligrams-VITAMIN-C.html

  360. Prajna 说: • 您的网站

    BAT SOUP CRAZY!

    I recently read a scientific paper on pseudoviruses. Ok, I’m not a microbiologist and it was chock-full of jargon and unfamiliar nomenclature but it wasn’t entirely impenetrable, it highlighted the following points:

    [更多]

    There are, so they say, deadly pathogens that cause diseases such as SARS, MERS, Ebola, TB, Rabies, etc. and these pathogens are considered so dangerous they can only be studied in the most secure laboratories (biosecurity level 4). Instead of working with such dangerous viruses in highly secure environments some mad scientists came up with the idea that if they created their own viruses rather than use the ‘wild type’ viruses then everything would be all fine and dandy and these new modified viruses would miraculously somehow become so safe they could be handled in biosec lvl 2 labs.

    So what’s a pseudovirus? Well they start with what they call the ‘backbone’, usually taken from the HIV virus and do some genetic engineering on it. They strip out a few genes and add a few. It seems they usually strip off or replace the ‘E’ (envelope) gene that packages up the virus and the thinking, I believe, is that this “aims to minimize viral gene recombination and thereby reduce the possibility of reversion to the WT virus.” i.e. They hope it helps to stop their new virus from changing back to the original wild-type (WT) HIV virus (which is, of course, a deadly pathogen that requires biosec 4 labs).

    Are you feeling uneasy about this mad science yet?

    You might be interested to know what genes they add to the mix. One gene they add is called a ‘reporting’ gene, a gene responsible for creating some kind of effect they can measure to see if their new virus is capable of infecting cells and reproducing itself. Most commonly they use a gene taken from a firefly that lights up called ‘lucifer’ or ‘luciferase’. Lucifer = light-bringer, innocent eh?

    So they add their reporting gene to the backbone but there is a problem. You see, genes are only active if something in the environment of the cell switches them on. DNA is full of genes, some active and some inactive; like a cookbook it has recipes for all kinds of things but DNA only cooks what it is told to cook. The lucifer gene will do nothing until it is activated. So they add a further gene to activate the luciferase gene and for that they take genes from cancer cells, since cancer arises when something activities genes which should be inactive.

    怎么可能出问题?

    Bat-soup crazy, from what I understand of it all. Btw, these kind of mad experiments are where any recombinant rna based mandatory vaccines that might be forced on the general public (not the elite, of course) with minimal testing, will come from.

    Should we really trust these nutters?

    这是论文:

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rmv.1963

  361. Thanks to the article, and some involved in commenting my stance into the subject of SARS-CoD-2 has substantially changed, to a degree of certainty that seems sufficient to me to expose myself to ridicule. The below text is as sent, to some acquaintances in the form factor of a mail message, it expresses my latest and now firmer stance on the Covid-19 et al. situation. That is what live communication should be about.

    Subject: My take on Covid-19 on 250302020 @ 22:49 (+1)

    Concept mail on 26/03-2020 @ 11:06 (+01)

    Our take on SARS-CoV-2, as a complete outsider, in no way qualified or having access to the data that fill in the variable below mentioned.

    [更多]

    As an example as to the hinted below:

    网址: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NLD/netherlands/death-rate , the key element on which to base any Covid-19 prognosis.

    Netherlands Death Rate 1950-2020

    NOTE: All data from 2020 and beyond are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus. Chart and table of the Netherlands death rate from 1950 to 2020. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

    The current death rate for Netherlands in 2020 is 8.908 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.09% increase from 2019. The death rate for Netherlands in 2019 was 8.812 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.11% increase from 2018. The death rate for Netherlands in 2018 was 8.715 deaths per 1000 people, a 1% increase from 2017. The death rate for Netherlands in 2017 was 8.629 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.01% increase from 2016.

    The UN, cowardly does renege responsibility apparently.

    — end of example —

    我们的看法:

    Not as usual, not using rectal extraction, but rectal 抽象化. This might seem a crude phrase to most, but the lack of data on all matters of importance is the livelihood of the media by design. Including the “alternos”. The extraction stands for, pardon the softer paraphrase “sifting endlessly through the garbage and noise of public domain data”. The abstraction stands for putting up a theoretical approach of how to corner a subject. No data are at the base of the following, that is note: N-0 data, but a mere pointer to the variable that might be crucial, is in our optic, of which evidently so there is no data available, a variable that is omitted in public communication. The very suspect omission of what is the essential variable to be the yardstick. There is abuse of other variables (testing and what is done wrong, for one), but I wanted to make this mail message to be concise and short, since timeliness demands this).

    How can we have an epidemic, note, epidemic in the sense of more people dying, regardless of the cause(s)? A serious peak in mortality rates per year as compared to recent years, all other variables the same, sub-groups of the population, regions, should manifest then. The mortality rate of 2020 should run ahead of what it was in recent years. To put it simply: do more people die and are the additional deaths if any due to Covid-19? Do they? Most probably not. There is no evidence for that.

    Since serious data are never in the public domain, the chase of the surplus population, the internet and good old press and tv, and since the above evident argument is not used in public communication, the hint is severe… The phenomenon of Covid-19 is most probably a h-o-a-x as far as being an epidemic that ups the total death counts (mortality rates).

    Not coming up with these data, and not justifying the consequent measures to the unjustified cause, our rulers are already taking the gullibles by the nose. Central banking profits, accounting can be “adjusted”. The stock market gets a reason for reversing to the hard assets of the super rich, the middle-class hores and insiders @CAX-DAX-NASD… fellow bettors… you name it, feast on the left-overs. Our puppets in charge get a boost as to their popularity. Measures to contain the surplus population are applied, no resistance to that, the gulibles it is well known, can only hold a single variable at once in their overworked neural networks, as seem to do our elites, guilty both. An elites win, based on a digital propagation hoax… This Covid-19, turns out to be the first ever global hypnosis. That is if our secondary argument, that total deaths per time frame are not measurably going up. Our bet is they do not.

    What can we suggest out of the above reductionist abstraction to the extreme:

    We should not give credit to the elites for being that smart to have planned and coordinated globally the Covid-19 scare. But we the surplus population, some outsiders, sensible to the delicacy and history of their behaviour, can count on it that as an afterthought the “epidemic” will be exploited to further stupefy our surplus populations (we).

    For the elderly, the ones in bad health, Covid-19 might be an additional factor to the grave, a positive test does not necessarily mean that Covid-19 is the only, and definite factor that leads up to death.

    For the healthy, the young, the chance that Covid-19 will be that virulent on your body, as to send you to the hospital, to require “new” medication is extremely small. A vaccine is completely out of the picture of necessity. Let alone Covid-19 giving you a hand leading you to the grave.

    Expect, that after having milked the phenomenon to the bottom, things will get 恢复“正常” for all, …the power mongers having re-enforced their position of untouchables, and now having plenty of leisure time to shop for hard assets, million dollar homes, and all those other goodies that come with being in power. The hard work is done.

    Con-Z-umerism for the surpluses, and abuse by the powerful will resume as usual, give or take six weeks. By June we will be shopping and hopping to our likes, as a reason for existence, …with a twist, content with less, and relieved of armpit rashes that problems cannot always be solved in an idiot proof environment. Our rulers know it all!

    Something real will most probably come about, but it looks like Covid-19 is not it.

    保留:

    If the mortality rates (totals), spike seriously, over the year, then ignore n-o-t the precautions to duck the enemy (Covid-19). Our best guess as said above, is based on circumferential evidence eventually. The validation is the evident omission in public communication of the probably most valid variable (total mortality rate over time-frame, per total population, per sub-group of the population). To us this is a strong an indicator enough.

    Have I, as most be taken for a ride? Well yes and no, a long-life strategy supposes that one is -cautious when a new element of “danger” shows, and lower one´s guard when enough indicators approach comprehension. This is the moment for me. Somewhere over the night of the twenty fifth of March. From now on let´s focus on something else that has some relevance to it over the long term and is not so evidently understood.

    You can bet with me against above, as far as my reach. Mail me at: [电子邮件保护] .

    This mail was sent to a short-list of acquaintances and posted here at unz.com 作为评论。

  362. geokat62 说:

    摘录自 Where is the media roar all over the world—blasting out the news that the UK government no longer considers COVID an existential threat to all life on Earth?

    The UK government, on its website, announced on March 23, under “Status of COVID-19”:

    “As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.”

    “The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.”
    “The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.”
    “The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.”
    “Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.”

    https://www.newswars.com/uk-downgrades-covid-19-no-longer-a-high-consequence-infectious-disease/

    • 谢谢: Iris
  363. @Quinsat

    See my comment of having changed my stance deeper down, regardless of this video on the basis of another narrower argument, according to me even my narrow evidence and circumferential at that is enough.

    The video is much better in scope and depth, evidently because the experience of the person speaking. It sais it all. Sorry to have missed it, or for the better, even on a theoretical basis, without a foot into virology, the Covid-19 thing is a hoax. Not so much in earlier stages as a planned event, but an accumulation of ignorance on behalf of our sorry elites and middle classes. “If it does not make money in the present, it cannot be true” Thanks for posting.

  364. The international elites in Italy,China, USA, UK, India , Spain,etc. likely took the seasonal flu and gave it a sexy name-the Coronavirus/COVID-19 and thanks to Jeff Berwick at the Dollar Vigilante came up with a “plannedemic”. Using the international media , which is probably owned by the same 5 or 6 corporations which own 90% or more of the American media , they created mass hysteria using “fear porn”. In FEAR of their lives ,as the elites well know, a frightened citizenry will agree to anything ,for example : more surveillance,more censorship, mandatory tests , mandatory vaccinations , cashless society , merger of the US Treasury with the privately owned Fed , massive spending for the pharmaceutical industrial complex(PIC) , less freedom to travel and assemble .

    • 同意: glib
  365. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @refl

    Whatever-spare me the history lesson.I just watched a weeping radio host taking calls from docs and medics in Madrid.Respirators are being removed from people older than 65 because they do not have enough of them and they are being sedated until they die.You,the great Karnak should have foreseen this and prevented it,as I am sure that in your all-seeing wisdom you will quickly come up with a solution that will perfect all medical systems globally.You will also eradicate all diseases. No health system is perfect and none will ever be.There is also the human factor of smoking,drinking,overeating,not exercising,etc.There are fairly good ones like the Canadian.Public officials in the West are corrupt and incompetent, you say.I live in a former communist country and believe me,you havent the foggiest as to what corruption and incompetency looks like until you have lived in a post-communist country,never mind a communist one like China where 80 per cent of the billionaires are Party members,such as Jack Ma,the richest man in China.As far as Corona symptoms go,brush up on what some of those who survived it have to say.What the hell does the criminal British blockade of Western Germany have to do with corona.From what I gather,illnesses like viral pneumonia for you do not really exist,but are a by-product of something else.While you are at it,please come up with a cure for the common cold.

    • 回复: @Robjil
    , @refl
  366. @9/11 Inside job

    Correction-Jeff Berwick terms it a “planned-demic” and Ron Paul calls it “The Coronavirus hoax”ronpaulinstitute.org

  367. Corvinus 说:
    @Uradel666

    YOU made the charge, now support it. That’s how it works. You cannot just say “there’s mass evidence” of the Rothschilds behind the Covid-19 pandemic, then neglect to offer such proof. Otherwise, you are making baseless accusations.

    • 回复: @Uradel666
  368. @NPleeze

    To the contrary, the establishment is malevolent and evil and now that they have the ability to set up their global totalitarian technocratic big brother police state

    So Big Brother is scheming for power? Give me a break, the establishment can’t even procure enough hospital gowns
    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/

    Provide useful information to enable people to make informed decisions, instead of hiding or failing to collect that information.

    When I asked about the minimal government response it was a rhetorical question. They obviously aren’t going to support effective solutions and are content to just watch the country burn.

    White people have been sold a load of bollox with this “minimal government” crap. It’s really sad that so many have been conned into thinking that the government is always their enemy when White people created the concept of government in the first place. Now Asians are doing a better job in this crisis with tools created by Whites but all the apathetic right can do is provide empty sloganeering.

    I have no doubt this “minimal government” religion will eventually be tossed in the garbage along with other false religions. I only wish we could force its adherents to move to Haiti or another “minimal government” paradise.

    • 回复: @Intelligent Dasein
  369. Mathiness 说:

    Kratoclastes, I am sitting here pointing at my nose. The key question is not the growth rate but the absorbing state, and over a broad range of transition probabilities the absorbing state is everybody dead or else infected and more or less immune. Some state health czars are alluding to this. They’re barking up the right tree: what is the trajectory to the absorbing state, and how far along are we? At peak plague panic maybe we’re almost there.

    Except that patient zero was long before December. CIA introduced it early last year. Baric’s dog was almost through the keep by June and by December it was ready for the show.

  370. Trinity 说:

    The Greatest Hoax Of The 21st Century brought to you by (((the people))) who sold you The Greatest Hoax Of The 20th Century.

    P.S. Anyone on this site going to write an article featuring how Israel is coping with the coronavirus and how many deaths Israel is (((reporting.))) Since ZUSA often seeks advice from their (((masters))) on policing and security from terrorists, it could probably benefit all us skeered citizens in ZUSA to know how our bestest best friend in the whole wide world of sports is coping with this (((pandemic.))) Could our bestest best friend in the whole wide world of sports possibly have a cure? There was a rumor going around that Israel might have a cure just a week or so ago. Can or will Israel, our bestest friend and a friend to all that is good and righteous in this world, save the rest of the lowly humanoids who have to share the same planet with the chosen?

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  371. utu 说:
    @anastasia

    What if China did not underestimate the number of victims, but OVERESTIMATED them, or made them up entirely?

    Wow and lol. Falun Gong propaganda (Epoch Times) knows no bounds. From insinuating that China covered up millions of deaths

    21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

    with mass cremation pits where many were cremated alive

    Coronavirus patients are being “cremated alive” in China.
    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/

    to the other extreme that the whole epidemic was made up, an anti-West psy-op.

    Shouldn’t Epoch Times now admit to being a part of this psy-op on the behalf of China?

    • 回复: @9/11 Inside job
  372. Robjil 说:
    @Pandour

    This sedation killing of older people has been going on a lot time in the US. I know about it from personnel experience. I was shocked that such a thing happens in US hospitals as a “regular’ procedure. They have nurses who are practiced in this.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/assisted-suicide-is-controversial-but-palliative-sedation-is-legal-and-offers-peace/2018/07/27/

    Under palliative sedation, a doctor gives a terminally ill patient enough sedatives to induce unconsciousness. The goal is to reduce or eliminate suffering, but in many cases the patient dies without regaining consciousness.

    The medical staff at the acute care center in Long Beach where Martin was a patient gave her phenobarbital. Once they calibrated the dosage properly, she never woke up again. She died within a week, not the one or two months her doctors had predicted before the sedation. She was 66.

    • 回复: @Iris
    , @Grahamsno(G64)
  373. @Bot

    Coronaviruses have been around for centuries. The CDC’s own statistics on seasonal influenza this season so far; 340 thousand plus hospitalizations, 20k plus deaths and millions diagnosed with it. Where’s the panic, quarantining and shutdowns due to this?

    Influenza had also been around for centuries before 1918, but that didn’t stop the Spanish Flu killing 50 million+ people. Just because the general risk of a whole class of viruses, such as Influenza or Coronavirus, is low, does not mean that you can ignore the possibility of a novel and especially virulent strain emerging, as happened in 1918 with influenza, and again now with Coronavirus.

    Various strains of Coronavirus are also causes of the common cold. This apparently trivial infection was one of the major diseases that decimated the Native American population in the first couple of centuries after Columbus landed. The lack of herd immunity to a novel virus makes it a completely different ballgame.

  374. Delta G 说:

    In my professional career as a Biomedical Scientist, I always said that if you need statistics to prove something, it’s likely not important and certainly not reproducible.

    Words of Caution from an Epidemiological Expert at Stanford.

    IE. Garbage in Garbage out.

    一场惨败正在酝酿中? 随着冠状病毒大流行的到来,我们在没有可靠数据的情况下进行决策
    By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS
    三月17,2020

    An Excerpt from his article.

    [更多]

    这一证据惨败给死于 Covid-19 的风险带来了巨大的不确定性。 报告的病死率,如世界卫生组织官方公布的 3.4%,令人恐惧——而且毫无意义。 接受过 SARS-CoV-2 检测的患者不成比例地是那些症状严重且结果不佳的患者。 由于大多数卫生系统的检测能力有限,选择偏差在不久的将来甚至可能恶化。
    The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
    Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
    这个巨大的范围显着影响了大流行的严重程度以及应该采取的措施。 0.05% 的全人群病死率低于季节性流感。 如果这是真实的比率,那么以潜在的巨大社会和经济后果来封锁世界可能是完全不合理的。 就像大象被家猫袭击一样。 大象沮丧并试图避开猫,但不小心跳下悬崖而死。
    Covid-19 的病死率会这么低吗? 不,有人说,这是指老年人的高比率。 然而,即使是一些已知数十年的所谓轻度或普通感冒型冠状病毒,当它们感染疗养院的老年人时,病死率也可能高达 8%。 事实上,这种“温和”的冠状病毒每年会感染数千万人,占美国每年冬天因下呼吸道感染住院的人数的 3% 至 11%。
    这些“轻度”冠状病毒每年可能与全世界成千上万的死亡有关,尽管其中绝大多数都没有经过精确测试的记录。 取而代之的是,每年由于各种原因造成的60万人死亡中,它们作为噪音而丢失。
    尽管成功的流感监测系统早已存在,但只有极少数情况下,实验室证实了这种疾病。 例如,在美国,本季迄今已检测了 1,073,976 份样本,222,552 份(20.7%)的流感检测呈阳性。 同期,流感样疾病的估计人数在 36,000,000 至 51,000,000 之间,估计有 22,000 至 55,000 人死于流感。
    请注意流感样疾病死亡的不确定性:2.5 倍的范围,相当于数万人死亡。 每年,其中一些死亡是由流感引起的,一些是由其他病毒引起的,例如普通感冒冠状病毒。
    In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.
    John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University.

    PS。
    As of March 15th, South Korea had tested 248,000 people, and confirmed 8,162 cases, and recorded 75 deaths. That represents a case fatality ratio of 0.9%. If governments should base their policy decisions on a range of reasonable possibilities, it seems like the South Korea example, where they have conducted the most testing, should be the benchmark – not the Diamond Princess.

  375. anastasia 说:

    时间表

    [更多]

    DECEMBER 30 – WHISTLEBLOWER TWEET ABOUT 7 PATIENTS WITH SARS-LIKE SYMPTOMS (DOES NOT TALK ABOUT ANY TEST)
    DECEMBER 31 – TEST TAKEN ON 41 PATIENTS, 12 OF WHICH HAVE NEW STRAIN
    JANUARY 9 – WHO ANNOUNCES NEW STRAIN OF SARS-LIKE VIRUS FROM CHINA
    JANUARY 12, WHISTLEBLOWER IS SICK AND HOSPITALIZED
    JANUARY 16 – NEW TEST MADE BY DR.DROSTEN IN BERLIN IN ‘PARTNERSHIP’ WITH CHINESE
    FEBRUARY 1 – WHISTLEBLOWER IS DIAGNOSED
    FEBRUARY 7 – WHISTLEBLOWER DIES

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li-wenliang-coronavirus-whistleblower-doctor-dies-intl/index.html

    This whistleblower is an ophthalmologist, who would not be involved in any way with these patients. Yet, he is the one to get sick?
    Notice that he blew his whistle on December 30, 2020, saying nothing about any testing, but that there were SEVEN patients with SARS like symptoms in the hospital.
    Seven? Only Seven? Isn’t this at the time of the MAJOR OUTBREAK and the influx of people inWuhan with respiratory distress. He works at Wuhan Central Hospital, the middle of the so-called epicenter.

    TheWhistleblower is hospitalized in January 12, 2020, but was not diagnosed until February 1, 2020 and allegedly died on February 7, after attempts to resuscitate him. .

    Notice that they did the testing no sooner than December 31, 2019, we are told. The WHO announced the new strain on January 9, 2020, so the new strain was filed between December 31 and January 9. When WHO announced it. The whistle blower sent out his tweet BEFORE the test was taken about 7 patients with Sars-like symptoms. It is the symptoms that spooked him, not the test. What are the symptoms of Sars. They are like any other symptoms of the flu. (See below for symptoms). Why would he call such patients as having “SARS like symptoms” when the symptoms resemble exactly symptoms of the flu during a flu season. Why would he tweet this before the results of the test came out? The Whistleblower talks about only 7 PATIENTS with these symptoms in the Wuhan Central Hospital, the middle of the epicenter. He is not the Chinese government. He is the whistleblower, and yet, with only 7 patients, where are the signs of any “outbreak”.

    Is this Whistleblower working for the Chinese government and is he really dead?

    Take a look at the Chinese propaganda story about Peng Yinhua, a 29-year-old Chinese doctor, who died in later February 2020. He postponed his marriage so he could fight “on the front lines against Covid-19). Then, they show pictures of his wedding.

    Symptoms of SARS: fever, cough, chills, fatigue, shortness of breath, headache and diarrhea.

    .

  376. Anonymous[225]• 免责声明 说:
    @9/11 Inside job

    The international elites in Italy,China, USA, UK, India , Spain,etc. likely took the seasonal flu and gave it a sexy name-the Coronavirus/COVID-19…

    That makes no sense whatsoever. I definitely don’t trust the elites in the US, UK or Brussels but that doesn’t apply to China and a number of other countries. What’s really illogical with your theory is that they wouldn’t need this charade if they were united. If that were the case, we’d be culled and the survivors put in tiny, windowless boxes years ago. The NWO, One World Government would be a reality right now and the goyim would be ruled with an iron fist unlike any other most people could imagine.

    Lockdowns, if done properly, should start showing significant results in the number of new infections after two to three weeks and become less restrictive after 1-3 months (assuming the outbreak is tackled early enough). Therefore, no-one is consenting to spend rest of their lives in similar conditions. That would be impossible anyway.

    You’re right that some of those globalist elites are trying to use this opportunity to advance many of their favourite programmes but that’s not proving that the pandemic is faked. They’d do the same whether the crisis was faked, created or exploited. This time, it looks like a combination of created and exploited.

    • 同意: Iris
    • 回复: @9/11 Inside job
  377. Paul C. 说:
    @Pandour

    The gist of my original comment is that the news is not real. You haven’t come to that conclusion but I’ve validated it for years. The government’s are staffed with flunkies, collecting their salaries and happy to participate in agendas against freedom loving people. Ultimately, those who control the Central Banks have enslaved society and seek to endanger us further. That’s the Cliff Notes in the interest of time.

    Here’s a good article.
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/gary-d-barnett/coronavirus-panic-the-united-states-government-must-be-stopped-now/

    My suggestion to you is to collect facts on the ground in Croatia. You collect the facts, call and speak to people you trust. I’m interested in what you will find. I’ve shared for over 2 months I’ve spoken to at least 50 people across 10 US states and not one knows anyone with the Coronavirus. Most people on Unz don’t care what the media, gov’t and the medical profession report. We know better.
    祝你好运。

    • 同意: 9/11 Inside job
    • 回复: @Spanky
    , @Pandour
  378. Desert Fox 说:
    @Trinity

    Totally agree, this is a created destruction of the American economy and way of life by the zionist NWO-OWG kabal , to centralize control in a communist coup, this is a zionist-communist-bolshevik take over of America!

    This is their Operation Gladio in action and the results will make Orwells 1984 look like paradise!

    • 同意: Trinity
    • 回复: @Wielgus
  379. Iris 说:
    @Robjil

    This sedation killing of older people has been going on a lot time in the US.

    Thanks Robjil, good to know.

    “Culling” the elderly who cannot work is alright for “liberal capitalism”.
    We can safely bet that the US will soon declare the Covid-19 pandemic done and dusted with.

    • 同意: Robjil
  380. glib 说:
    @refl

    Here is something people do not realize. The Black Plague could have been treated with sunshine. Alternatively, with cod liver oil. We have an immune system that is quite capable, but 90+% of the people TODAY are deficient in one of the most important hormones for the immune system, specially in winter. Skeletons from BP mass graves all showed signs of rickets and other malnutrition. I don’t have to look, but I am willing to bet the plague was not hitting fishermen much.

    • 回复: @Robjil
  381. Herald 说:
    @Realist

    I was really thinking along those lines, but it’s always satisfying to have a confirmatory second opinion.

  382. Ashino 说:

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-staggering-collapse-of-u-s- intelligence-on-the-coronavirus/

    斯科特里特 The Staggering Collapse Of U.S. Intelligence On The Coronavirus

    [更多]

    An agency tasked with tracking future bio threats fell down on the job, causing us to wonder what else we don’t know.

    The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the United States unlike any other event in recent history, proving to be far more disruptive to American society, and far most damaging to the U.S. economy, than even the events of 9/11.

    The CDC has recently acknowledged, during a hearing of the House Oversight Committee on March 11, that its biosurveillance program has uncovered evidence that Americans who had previously died to what had been originally diagnosed as influenza have, through post-mortem testing, been found to have actually have perished from the coronavirus.

    The U.S. response is something President Trump has likened to a “war,” going so far as to label himself a “wartime President,” leading the U.S. against “the toughest enemy” in a struggle in which he vows “total victory.” If the fight against the coronavirus is a war, then the virus clearly took the U.S. government by surprise. “Certainly we didn’t get an early run on it, Trump noted in a press conference on March 17. “It would’ve been helpful if we knew about it earlier.”

    The coronavirus was clearly part of the NCMI’s remit. And yet its first Infectious Disease Risk Assessment for COVID-19 was issued on January 5, 2020, reporting that 59 people had been taken ill in Wuhan, China. This report was derived not from any sensitive intelligence collection effort or independent biosurveillance activity, but rather from a report issued to the WHO by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, dated January 5, 2020.

    Almost everything the NCMI knew about the current situation in Wuhan came from the WHO, which had been working very closely with Chinese authorities from the Chinese Center of Disease Control (CCDC) to determine the origin and nature of the coronavirus outbreak. While a great deal of attention has been paid to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in the city of Wuhan, which sells live poultry, fish, and several kinds of wild animals to the public, a detailed investigation by the Joint Field Epidemiology Investigation Team, a specialized task force working under the auspices of the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CCDC), found that the COVID-19 epidemic did not originate by animal-to-human transmission in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as originally believed, but rather human-to-human transmission totally unrelated to the operation of the market. Read on follow the link…

    Also Trump is failing at defeating the ‘invisible enemy’ aka ‘evil China-Virus’ By: Azhar Azam https://azhar-azam.blogspot.com/

    旁注 American “Kasperl-Theater” at it most pathetic caricature edition… lol… US government threatens families of Int’l Criminal Court staff if they try Americans for war crimes https://thegrayzone.com/2020/03/20/us-threatens-families-international-criminal- court/

    Failure to contain coronavirus in Iran will adversely impact the entire world’ Politics – March 26, 2020 – 11:50 https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/446323/Failure-to-contain-coronavirus-in-Iran-will- adversely-impact Coronavirus is a crisis. In Iran, it’s a massacre – because of Trump’s sanctions. Even before COVID-19, these sanctions were recognized even by biased Human Rights Watch as undermining access to healthcare.

    • 回复: @refl
  383. @James N. Kennett

    The key to the Oxford paper appears to be …

    Actually, the key point made by the Oxford paper is that to know how many have been exposed to the coronavirus requires testing, which is what we said above.

    And no, that does not mean testing millions of people. If Gupta et al. are correct in inferring that half the UK population has Covid19 immunity, then testing a random sample of 400 people will confirm the claim with very high probability.

    But governments and the scientific establishment in Britain, the US and Canada are so corrupt that they will piss away billions and, in the US, trillions, on measures supposed to alleviate what may be a virtually non-existent problem, rather than doing some elementary data collection that could be completed in a week for under a hundred grand.

    • 同意: John Chuckman
    • 回复: @James N. Kennett
    , @NPleeze
  384. Paul C. 说:
    @bjondo

    That’s the same for me. I dropped Webb 3-4 years ago when I heard those same comments of his admiration for the original or old guard Mossad but expressed dislike of the new Mossad. What’s the Old Guard, those who killed JFK and orchestrated 9/11?

    I have a friend trying to learn the truth who forwarded me a recent Webb video. I listened to it just to hear what he was pushing. He mentioned Nazi’s 10 times in a 30 minute interview. He even said Victoria Nuland supports the Nazi’s in Ukraine but doesn’t share her religion or of those controlling what’s occurring in Ukraine. He’s classic controlled opposition. Will give a certain amount of truth but stays clear of certain topics and misdirects.

  385. @9/11 Inside job

    a frightened citizenry will agree to anything ,for example : more surveillance,more censorship, mandatory tests , mandatory vaccinations , cashless society , merger of the US Treasury with the privately owned Fed , massive spending for the pharmaceutical industrial complex(PIC) , less freedom to travel and assemble .

    Yes. Here’s a glimpse of what’s coming down the pike: Steve Baker, MP addressing Parliament: We Are Implementing a Dystopian Society.

  386. @utu

    I would suggest that it’s a global psyop, the elites of all the affected and effected countries are in on it, I believe that I read somewhere that the head of China’s CDC attended the Bill Gates organized “Event 201”.If you dig deep you will find that almost all the World’s leaders are Freemasons or are connected to secret societies. President John Quincy Adams warned Americans of the secret oaths of the masons,
    but his warnings have been ignored and forgotten.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
    , @CanSpeccy
  387. Thim 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Why not? Because most of the deaths are attributed to flu.

  388. @Anonymous

    All the indications are that this epidemic was in the planning for years , what better way to bring it off but on the back of the seasonal flu. The bill just passed by Congress contains a lot of goodies ,for example a cashless society ,which go towards the aims of those pushing for a tyrannical, one world government. It is after all, as Jeff Berwick at the “Dollar Vigilante” calls it a “planned-demic” And what was China’s head of the CDC doing at Bill Gates organized “Event 201”?
    China is a convenient scapegoat .

  389. @Peripatetic Commenter

    China studies did not show benefit to HCQ in terms of viral clearance or symptomatic improvement (.https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia/top-covid-19-aspirants-chloroquine-abbvie-s-kaletra-and-a-flu-drug-disappoint-clinical).

    AZT likely of benefit in preventing secondary bacterial infection. Most infectious disease specialists will add an antibiotic to symptomatic influenza A or B infections to prevent secondary bacterial pneumonia.

    French study needs confirmation and the CHINESE studies do not provide that.

    Could there be synergism between HCQ and AZT against COVID?? Possibly, through an unknown mechanism, but the study you cited is not a slam dunk for a new miracle cure against COVID.

    That, plus 3 of the initial patients in the study you cite ended up in the ICU with no further follow up is problematic. The prescribed treatment failed to prevent clinical deterioration in a significant number of the participants.

    But I would agree with you the combination deserves further scrutiny in a randomized clinical trial.

  390. 罗恩

    This is a very good way to think of the stats we are seeing, because we can generate multiple curves by varying the different parameters and see which fits the data better.

    感谢您的见解。

    • 谢谢: Ron Unz
  391. Desert Fox 说:
    @9/11 Inside job

    Agree completely, and the celebrities that claim they have the virus, is total bullshit, they are all disinformation psyops, the name of the game is hysteria and fear and this is a typical communist takeover of America, we are the sheep and they are the wolves and this is not going to end well for we sheep!

    Everyone should read the 10 planks of the communist manifesto, this is what is being forced on America.

    • 回复: @Trinity
  392. Robjil 说:
    @glib

    Poland is the region that fared the best during the Black Plague. It wasn’t on the coast.

    https://ipfs-sec.stackexchange.cloudflare-ipfs.com/history/A/question/16699.html

    Nonetheless, it is true that Poland did survive the Black Death relatively unscathed. In addition to Poland’s relatively sparse population, a key factor is that King Casimir the Great wisely quarantined the Polish borders. By holding the plague off at the borders, the disease’s impact on Poland was softened.

    During Kazimierz’s reign, the Black Death, a pandemic infection, swept across Europe, killing millions. But Poland established quarantines at its borders, and the plague skirted Poland almost entirely.

    – Zuchora-Walske, Christine, Poland, North Mankato: ABDO Publishing, 2013.

    The quarantine’s effectiveness was further enhanced by Poland’s relative isolation. While heavily hit regions such as the Mediterranean coast were densely interlinked with trade, the same was generally not true of Poland. When the Black Death arrived, this isolation helped insulate the Poles from the plague.

    [M]uch larger areas, such as central Poland … locations ‘off the beaten trail’ and not along the more popular trade routes were more likely to be on the lookout for ill travelers, ‘foreigners’, or perhaps not even be visited by outsiders at all. We believe that it was the exclusion of medieval traders and pilgrims that would significantly account for the lightly-affected Medieval Black Death regions

    – Welford, Mark, and Brian H. Bossak. “Revisiting the Medieval Black Death of 1347–1351: Spatiotemporal Dynamics Suggestive of an Alternate Causation.” Geography Compass 4.6 (2010): 561-575.

    • 回复: @glib
    , @NobodyKnowsImaDog
  393. GazaPlanet 说:
    @Anonymous

    Did the Chinese lock down Wuhan over 3000 people dying? Let’s get real. The Chinese statistics are simply unreliable. What’s more, we shouldn’t trust the statistics from Western countries. It’s safe to bet that the extraordinary measure being taken are based on real fear based on real threats by the authorities. The people who want to lull you into complacency just want to get this over as fast as possible and have no concern over the death toll.

  394. glib 说:
    @Robjil

    Maybe they had more access to meat or were otherwise better fed than the forced vegans in the western european cities? The highest vitamin D content in all foods is in pastured lard, although most seafood has some, typically 1/10 (gram per gram) compared to lard (fish liver is very high though, but also very perishable). I would be interested in seeing plague rates in the Mongols, who ate almost exclusively dairy and meat.

  395. Trinity 说:

    When a string of murders have a similar m.o. or pattern often detectives will start assuming they have a serial killer on their hands. Take a look at some past events that have been revisited or events that were relatively unknown just a few decades ago but were FINALLY exposed to millions during the enlightenment period known as the pre-censoring internet age.

    [更多]

    Jacob Schiff financing the Japan war effort against Russia in the Russo-Japanese War
    Woodrow Wilson and the affair
    Bolshevik Revolution ( the real revolution was NOT a Russian Revolution)
    大饥荒
    World Jewry boycotting Germany in 1933
    WWII ( the REAL story not the bullshit official narrative we have been spoon fed.)
    Holocaust narrative completely exposed as GREATLY EXAGGERATED
    艾森豪威尔死亡营
    Germans tortured at Nuremberg Trials ( you can beat a confession out of anyone)
    拉文事件
    JFK assassination ( once again, the official narrative doesn’t add up)
    1965 Immigration Reform Act that would forever change the demographics of America were brought into play not by shabbos goy, Ted Kennedy, but by Jews Emanuel Celler and Jacob Javits.
    自由号
    乔纳森·波拉德
    9-11 & the 5 dancing shlomos ( once again, the official narrative doesn’t add up)
    “they are jealous of our freedoms”
    大规模杀伤性武器
    Asad gassing his own people?

    You can now add the coronavirus HOAX.

    Hmm, when I look at this list, forgive me for not assuming that Chinese unleashed this virus on America, Europe and the rest of mankind.

    • 回复: @Robjil
  396. @lavoisier

    As much as I mistrust the US government and its ministry of propaganda, the fact that the people who run our nation and care nothing about human life have taken steps that would damage the economy to control the spread of the virus tells me that this virus is something to worry about.

    Chicken-and-egg problem: the economy was on an ineluctable trajectory to ruin well before corona virus.
    Possible that media hyperbolized virus in order to cover up for the controlled demolition of the asbestos-polluted Building 7 er, economy.

    • 回复: @Spanky
  397. Spanky 说:
    @Paul C.

    …for over 2 months I’ve spoken to at least 50 people across 10 US states and not one knows anyone with the Coronavirus. — Paul C

    So you’ve polled fifty people in ten states and concluded Covid-19 is not real… In a nation of ~330M souls living in fifty states, and most crucially, before this thing really gets to rockin’ an rollin’ Wuhan (or Italian) style. LOL An entirely credible assessment.

    Reminds me of the time FBI agents berated and ignored hundreds of witnesses to the Flight 800 shootdown off Long Island, telling them they didn’t see what they reported (a fiery trail leading up from the water directly to the aircraft immediately before it exploded in mid-air). All that mis-remembering. Even the CIA got in on the act producing a video animation of the crash for domestic broadcast. Of course what went unsaid was that at the time CIA was desperately trying to locate and buy all the surplus Stinger manpads left over from Afghanistan in mujahideen hands…

    Now that’s a conspiracy theory. Yours just seems to be validating your view of the world. Or perhaps the medics in China, Spain, Italy, and other countries are simply misremembering what they see and report.

    • 回复: @glib
  398. Spanky 说:
    @SolontoCroesus

    Possible that media hyperbolized virus… — SolontoCroesus

    It might be more correct to say that when the US gov began to take the virus seriously, the media hyperbolized it. Before that ‘Merican exceptionalism was in full swing and the MSM proclaimed, loudly, that it was not a threat.

    • 回复: @SolontoCroesus
  399. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @Paul C.

    Here we go again-the U.S.,3d largest country in the world,pop. over 330.000 million,do I have to paint you a picture.Why dont you buzz up the likes of New York Police Commissioner Dermot Shea who the other day said that 211 officers tested positive for the virus.At least call some New York hospital-there are at present 1,290 patients in intensive care.Are you for real.At present there are 495 corona cases in Croatia,an increase of 53 since yesterday, with two dead thus far.I guess the Minister of the Interior,Health, Ministry of Civil Defense and others make up stuff for each of their four daily TV briefings daily as do their counter-parts the world over.As I mentioned in a previous post,I know a young fellow who was airlifted to Split from the island of Hvar where I live who had the virus.How dumbed down do you have to be to believe its all a global conspiracy involving numerous governments,the media the medical profession,police,patients being treated,those recovered,etc. all working in concert with one another to bilk humanity for nefarious ends.I just cant,try as I might,wrap my head around those who ascribe to such nonsense.These people live in some alternate universe where all except they are privy to the absolute truth,the facts be damned.There are good conspiracy theorists and there are bad-they disgrace intelligent conspiracy theorists.There are conspiracy facts and then there are half-baked conspiracy theories.

  400. Amy D. 说:

    COVID-19: Two Major ‘Waves’ of Global Infection, Towards Global Contamination?

    For investigation, if this can help (emphasis is mine) : ”The First Wave simultaneously infected 25 nations or provinces within a few days centered around January 25. The infected areas: Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Cambodia, Nepal, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Canada, the US, Germany, Italy, the UK, France, Bavaria, Spain, Belgium, Russia, Finland, and the UAE.”

    [更多]

    ”One month later. The Second Wave simultaneously infected 85 nations within a few days centered around February 25. The infected countries: Austria, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Portugal, Luxembourg, Monaco, San Marino, the Vatican, Liechtenstein, Malta, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bhutan, Andorra, Bulgaria, Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, the Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Latvia, Croatia, Estonia, North Macedonia, Georgia, Romania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Slovakia, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Egypt, Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Iceland, Ecuador, Armenia, Norway, Denmark, Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Nigeria, Togo, Cameroon, Senegal, Algeria, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia. Kosovo, Namibia, Uruguay, the Sudan, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Bolivia, Panama, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Burkina Faso, Brunei and Cyprus were simultaneous around one week later.”

    Article is from

    拉里·罗曼诺夫(Larry Romanoff)

    全球研究,26 年 2020 月 XNUMX 日

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-two-major-waves-of-global-infection-towards-global-contamination/5707588

  401. @Iris

    It is the potential of spreading that matters, not the death rate, which at this early stage of a new disease is an unknown parameter thus irrelevant anyway.

    And the death rate can change as the virus mutates.

  402. @9/11 Inside job

    President John Quincy Adams warned Americans of the secret oaths of the masons,
    but his warnings have been ignored and forgotten.

    President John F. Kennedy warned against secret societies (after 6:35):

    • 谢谢: 9/11 Inside job
  403. @John Johnson

    White people created the concept of government in the first place.

    I don’t think I’ve ever read anything more bizarre than that. Every word of it is wrong. Government is not a “concept” at all. Government is will, force, authority, rule, direction. It is older than life itself and embedded in the hierarchical structure of reality. It has the same nature in a pack of wolves, a colony of ants, and the highest heights of human society. Neither white people, nor any other people, invented it.

    By the way, this is not a slight. I entirely agree with you that the minimal government stuff is garbage. But the “invented government” stuff is very nonsensical.

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  404. Is it even a virus? http://whale.to/a/lanka_h.html
    German virologist, Dr. Stefan Lanka, has something to tell us all.

  405. @CanSpeccy

    The Oxford paper is proposing serological testing, i.e. looking for antibodies to Covid-19. This test is not yet widely available.

    Tests for Covid-19 itself in the general population are also a good idea, but the UK does not have enough test kits even to test doctors and nurses.

    These are obvious suggestions. If the tests were freely available in unlimited quantities, a group of researchers would have already done what you propose. Money is not a problem: if government is slow, there are foundations such as Bill and Melinda Gates that would provide the money in an instant.

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  406. Spanky 说:
    @Alfred

    The point that this virus exacerbates pre-existing conditions is not lost on me… More to the point, you claim these folks would have died anyway so what’s the problem?

    Well, would they have died, right now, this year or next, if the virus had not worsened those conditions? Consider this example:

    Early sixties male, non-smoker, whom seven years ago was diagnosed with late onset asthma and an extreme (anaphylactic) sensitivity to aspirin (salicylic acid). Condition is well-managed without drugs and, with the exception of a nasty bout of walking pneumonia during the winter of 2017-18, there is no other relevant medical history. Pulmonologist expects our guy to live as long as other members of his family. Immediate and extended family members (including one with chronic lung issues) usually live well into their 80s (four still kicking) with several in their 90s (all deceased) and two in their 100s (one still living).

    Let’s say our guy is infected by Covid-19 and dies of pneumonia. Will you credit his death to his pre-existing condition or Covid-19 — considering, of course, that his remaining life expectancy (ex-coronavirus) was about twenty years?

    • 回复: @glib
    , @Alfred
  407. Robjil 说:
    @Trinity

    The ZUS empire has bioweapon labs in many nations. Something our “free” western ZUS press seems to never talk about.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-biological-warfare-program-in-the-spotlight-again/5654064

    The US has bio laboratories in 25 countries across the world, including the post-Soviet space. They are funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). Foreign inspectors are denied access to them. It should be noted that independent journalist investigations have been made public to confirm the fact that the US military conducts secret research to pose a threat to environment and population. Jeffrey Silverman, an American journalist who has lived in Georgia for many years, is sure the Richard Lugar Center, as well as other labs, is involved in secret activities to create biological weapons. Georgia and Ukraine have been recently hit by mysterious disease outbreaks, with livestock killed and human lives endangered. The US military operates the Central Reference Laboratory in Kazakhstan since 2016. There have public protests against the facility.

    The ZUS empire violates Bio weapon conventions. Silence about all this in our “free” western ZUS press.

    The US activities violate the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), a legally binding treaty that outlaws biological arms. It effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, retention, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons and is a key element in the international community’s efforts to address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In force since 1975, the convention has 181 states-parties today. The BWC reaffirms the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which prohibits the biological weapons use. In 1969, US President Richard Nixon formally ended all offensive aspects of the US biological warfare program. In 1975, the US ratified both the 1925 Geneva Protocol and the BWC.

    With this coronavirus thing, will the world be brave enough to demand that the US allow independent inspections its military bio-weapon labs?

    Negotiations on an internationally binding verification protocol, which would include on-site inspections by an independent authority to the BWC, took place between 1995 and 2001. The US did not sign up. Its refusal to become a party to the verification mechanisms makes any attempt to enhance the effectiveness of the BWC doomed. A Review Conference is held every five years to discuss the convention’s operation and implementation. The last one, which convened in November 2016, was a frustration with minimal agreement on the final document and no substantive program of work to do before the next event takes place in 2021. There is little hope the BWC will ever be strengthened to have teeth. With no verification mechanism, the US military bio-warfare labs will always be a matter of concern. The issue is serious enough to be included into global security architecture. The UN General Assembly is the right place to raise it. Its 73rd session will open on September 18.

    • 回复: @Trinity
  408. Uradel666 说:
    @Corvinus

    It’s not the Charge, it is the claim. I am not supposed to prove the claim. But that doesn’t rule out the fact that there are a lot of evidence. A lot! All other, see above.

    • 回复: @Corvinus
  409. glib 说:
    @Spanky

    Hi Spanky, just for your info, if there is a, say, 10% infection rate, the data quoted by Paul C. are highly significant. His outcome would have a probability of 0.5% to happen.

  410. @Spanky

    Before that ‘Merican exceptionalism was in full swing and the MSM proclaimed, loudly, that it was not a threat.

    Fact is, the CDC’s chief guardians of the American people against public health threats said that “it’s Vaping,” and “it is not as great a threat as SARS,” and “we have it contained.”

    https://www.unz.com/article/last-man-standing/#comment-3795650

  411. glib 说:
    @Spanky

    if your guy died of pneumonia he was really unlucky. 60 years olds with one condition mostly survive. This is the main reason in Europe total mortality has been going down since before the crisis started. Most people make it or even do not even realize that they had it.

    • 回复: @Spanky
  412. @James N. Kennett

    If the tests were freely available in unlimited quantities, a group of researchers would have already done what you propose.

    No, you don’t understand. To determine the prevalence of immunity, you need only a small sample provided it is a true random sample. A test on a random sample of 400 people is all you need. And in fact, test kits are pretty abundant now. Here in British Columbia, alone, over 18000 tests have now been conducted.

    The most likely reason for not doing a random survey to determine the proportion of the population with immunity is that governments do not want to know.

    • 同意: jack daniels
  413. niceland 说:
    @refl

    Let’s be satisfied with trying to figure out how many were infected in the U.S. two weeks ago.

    Today, total number of deaths is 1027. If the death ratio is 1% – for each dead you need 100 people infected. Or 102700 for the total.

    When did this group get infected on average? Perhaps two weeks ago? If so 102700 people had to be infected two weeks ago. Two weeks ago how many were diagnosed with the virus in the U.S.? 1581!

    At least this shows how totally worthless the ‘number of cases’ is in the U.S. and elsewhere. And using it for any calculation of death rates is a disaster.

  414. Corvinus 说:
    @Uradel666

    Of course you are to prove your charge or claim or position. Own it rather than be evasive. What is the evidence? Show how exactly the Rothschilds ate directly involved in the Covid 19 hoax. What documentary proof are you able to provide? Don’t be coy…

    • 回复: @Uradel666
    , @Grahamsno(G64)
  415. @Pandour

    Unfortunately I am pretty “dumbed down” as I do believe it’s a global conspiracy involving numerous governments with corrupt, Masonic leaders leading the way , such as Trump. Macron, Boris Johnson, Putin , Modi, Xi, Giuseppe Conte , et al , as George Carlin said “…it’s a BIG club and you ain’t in it ” It is hard to believe anything that is appearing in the mainstream media about the Coronavirus ,as the book says :”In lies we trust : How politicians and the media are deceiving the American Public” By Ed Brodow. I had a hard time wrapping my head around the 9/11 false flag and how it could involve so many agencies and people and understanding the agenda , but the perps behind the Coronavirus hoax are using a similar modus operandi as was used to pull off 9/11 and it requires the complicity of the mainstream media.

    • 同意: Paul C.
    • 回复: @Pandour
  416. Spanky 说:
    @UK

    So, if I’ve understood you correctly: Someone with any pre-existing condition, who isn’t on their deathbed before being infected with Covid-19, but dies after being infected with Covid-19 means that their death can simply be attributed to their pre-existing condition?

    While I agree that a pre-existing condition, upon infection, indicates a far higher risk of a serious case of Covid-19 and possibly death, I’m having a hard time seeing how Covid-19 is not the direct cause — if the pre-existing condition by itself had not already put them on their deathbed.

    Of course someone already on their deathbed who contracts Covid-19 probably wouldn’t have made it anyway (duh, already on their deathbed). But to conflate that narrow and specific circumstance with all pre-existing conditions is mere fallacy.

    • 回复: @UK
  417. Spanky 说:
    @glib

    It’s always better to be lucky rather than rich, beautiful, smart or talented (altho those attributes certainly don’t hurt). That said, however, in my experience Lady Luck can be a stone cold bitch as to when she turns her back.

  418. glib 说:
    @glib

    The Euro maps and graphs have just been updated for week 12. Map reports Italy at about 1200 extra deaths for the week (again, to be compared with 3000 a week in 2014-2015). No one else above 3sigma. European total mortality still declining.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

  419. WGary 说:
    @Trinity

    I do know someone who tested positive for covid-19, and to the best of my knowledge, they are doing well, after what appeared to be a brief flu-like illness.

  420. The case-fatality rate being suggested by the media is falsely too high because they are not taking into account the true number of people infected. They are only using the number of tested people who are infected. The true number of infections is much more, therefore the true case-fatality rate is much lower. Self-isolation and social distancing only need apply to the old and chronically ill, not the entire population. We have vastly over-reacted, throwing the baby (the economy) out with the bathwater. See: https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professors-coronavirus-death-rate-estimate-likely-orders-of-magnitude-too-high

  421. Trinity 说:
    @Robjil

    Even the somewhat reliable Sucker Carlson has went into full retard mode on the demonizing of China. Sucker is one of those color blind cuckservative types that sometimes push the envelope by mentioning S. Africa and then dropping it into the wastebasket. Sucker Carlson won’t dare talk about Zionist racism or Zionist occupation of the media, banks, publishing companies, etc., or Jews slaughtering Palestinians. Funny thing about “our” media, they can single out Russians, Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans, etc., but they suddenly lost their eyesight and hearing when it came to identifying Epstein Pedophile Island as a Jewish run Mossad Operation. I mean everyone running or behind the Epstein sex ring was Jewish. Imagine if the Russians or Chinese were pimping out underage American girls to world leaders so they could later blackmail those leaders to do their bidding. Do you think Sucker & Company would have a problem identifying the sex ring as a Russian honey pot or a Chinese honey pot? IF people can’t figure this damn thing out, even with the controlled media, than they are either retarded, willfully ignorant, Zionist shills, or philo-Semites on steroids.

    • 同意: Robjil
    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  422. @anonymous

    ..or just spray it with ethanol (grain alcohol) – quick, easy, cheap and effective.

  423. NPleeze 说:
    @James N. Kennett

    This is a doubtful idea, because we have data for 3 subsequent weeks in Italy. and the epidemic has not yet peaked.

    On Mar. 6 there had been 197 deaths. Even if the death rate is 0.1%, that means (at least a couple weeks earlier) 197,000 people had been infected, in a country of 60 million.

    It is probably approaching now sufficient saturation that the numbers will stop increasing, though they no doubt delayed that point (“flattened the curve”) by imposing martial law.

    Also almost all of the dead are in one region known for bad air quality, and for that or some other reason their death rate is higher even accounting for the more aged population.

  424. UK 说:
    @Spanky

    So, if I’ve understood you correctly: Someone with any pre-existing condition, who isn’t on their deathbed before being infected with Covid-19, but dies after being infected with Covid-19 means that their death can simply be attributed to their pre-existing condition?

    No, it is more subtle. First, that deaths are being attributes to Wuhan Flu when someone dies and it is simply found in their system. Second, that, as with AIDS, pre-existing conditions may allow any opportunistic infection, including Wuhan Flu, to kill someone.

    Of course someone already on their deathbed who contracts Covid-19 probably wouldn’t have made it anyway (duh, already on their deathbed). But to conflate that narrow and specific circumstance with all pre-existing conditions is mere fallacy.

    You’re the one engaging in fallacy. I made no such absolute statement. I simply said that it is impossible to disentangle the two and that only population-wide stats on excess deaths would give us a clue as to what is going on.

    • 回复: @Spanky
  425. NPleeze 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    testing a random sample of 400 people will confirm the claim with very high probability

    At least it would set a lower bound on the number who have already been infected (at least for long enough, a few days to a week, for antibodies to form). Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think all immune folks have generated the specific antibody for a virus, sometimes the body’s general defenses can defeat it and then “no trace” is left behind (but then you can catch the disease again later).

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  426. Trinity 说:
    @Desert Fox

    I was driving around and heard on the (((radio))) that one of the members of the 80’s rock group, “Bon Jovi” tested positive for the Kosher Crud. LMAO. This is getting SICK ( pun intended.)

  427. Wielgus 说:
    @Desert Fox

    Gladio was an anti-Communist operation.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  428. refl 说:
    @Pandour

    I live in a former communist country and believe me,you havent the foggiest as to what corruption and incompetency looks like until you have lived in a post-communist country,never mind a communist one

    That is what I wonder about. Quite some of our commenters here are from countries, that had dismal health systems in the past or still have them now. And most of us, who at least have the personal wealth to spend their time in front of a compute screen and communicate with fellows around the world, do not have the knowledge about the depth of their own national health systems.
    All this arguing about infection rates starts with the assumption that the publich health service provides reasonable data in the first place, in that he covers the population and properly reports its findings, which I do not believe.

    As for corruption, I have stopped to believe that the western ‘capitalist’ systems is less corrupt then communism – they habe 1) internationalised it – the beneficiaries of this are with the WHO or organisations that do not even bother to look up your country on a map, and they have 2) legalized it in the form of bail-outs, golden parachute bonuses and the like.
    The communist leaderships always told you that they were caring for the people and on a basical level they also did. These never did.
    I write this as a western person who has thought about the conditions in the east under communism quite a lot and who certainly does not want to do any PR for those conditions.

    spare me the history lesson

    I did not want to argue about the Spanish Flu, but I mean that we live with false narratives, and we see one being established in front of our eyes now. As a result of this here, states will go into dept, the EU is breaking up, civil rights are being trashed. It is hard to see the consequences now, but we all have seen what followed 9/11. This has bigger potential and it will play out over decades likely.

    If I think, that the narrative is false, it serves to say it now.

  429. The COVID-19 scare is psychological Warfare. History will remember it as the biggest fraud ever perpetrated to stifle dissent, manipulate the economy, and mandate medicine. The West is committing cultural, spiritual, political, and economic suicide over a weak virus. Actually, even if it were the Bubonic plague, lockdowns and revocation of Civil Liberties are wrong

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  430. Kali 说:
    @Uradel666

    Leave no doubt whatsoever, the “Coronademic” is the Economic project which will be resulted in empowerment and centralization of Authorities, National Army, and National Banking System.

    It goes Worldwide through the economic restructuring and realignment of US T-debts. A step away from “one-stop-shop” system. Welcome to the capitalist (mode of) communism (market system communism) or communistic mode of capitalism designed by kolkhoznik Rothschild.

    Similar “Coronademics” events are going to be a part and parcel of this new Rothschild Capitalism.

    的确。

    UNLESS, of course, folks realise that “money” is nothing but convention and that “the economy stupid” putting food on the table!

    And so actually start to produce for their own immediate needs, in cooperation with neighbours and friends and develope a new kind of economy that puts food on everyone’s table… Or die trying?

    仅仅是一个想法。

    带着爱,
    卡利

    • 同意: Uradel666
  431. Desert Fox 说:
    @Trinity

    Agree, a couple of years ago Tucker Carlson said that 911 truthers were nuts, that said it all about zionist puppet Carlson, for Israel and zionist traitors in the ZUS gov were the ones who did the attack on the WTC and Carlson knows it!

    • 回复: @Trinity
  432. Desert Fox 说:
    @Wielgus

    Gladio is a terrorist operation ran by NATO that has teams of killers killing anyone who stands in the way of the zionist NWO and they still operate today!

    • 回复: @Wielgus
  433. Trinity 说:
    @Desert Fox

    Yes sir, ANYONE we see on (((television))) is definitely kosher approved. Someone like Sucker Carlson actually does more harm than the over the top leftoid homosexual guys over at CNN. Sucker brings in the folks because he does spout a lot of truth, so he is trustworthy to the average “white guy” out there. So now we have people thinking that Sucker Carlson is one of “the good guys,” or good ole Sucker Carlson “tells it like it is,” blah, blah, blah. Sucker Carlson is just a different flavor of the same old Zionist crapola, just like Trump.

    • 回复: @Robjil
  434. Robjil 说:
    @Trinity

    Carlson was rational about ZUS’s wars in the Middle East. He never mentions which little nation wants the wars. This little nation holds our big nation by the neck. He doesn’t mention this little nation. He fears it since this little nation completely controls our MSM. Any deviation from Zion First is anti-S. One is banished to joblessness with the tiniest disrespect to Zion beliefs or the Zion agenda.

    His rational view of ZUS’s Middle East wars is a rare thing on ZUS MSM.

    We now know why ZUS MSM had such patience with Carlson these past few years. ZUS wants three large nations in its pocket, Iran, Russia and China. Any one who is willing to demonize one of these nations on ZUS MSM wins a job. Any one of the three will do to get a job at ZUS MSM.

    Carlson was saving his propaganda for the big prize – Get China. This Coronavirus mania is a huge event for ZUS. Carlson got millions of anti-war people to trust Carlson. Now, Carlson can now get this “anti-war” crowd to go for the jugular at China.

    Real and rational anti-war people will not fall for this trap. Many people still have brains that work and see through this crap.

    This is dangerous. This how ZUS has got wars since 12.23.1913. It is trickery at its worst.

    • 同意: utu
    • 谢谢: Trinity, Iris
    • 回复: @Trinity
    , @Desert Fox
    , @utu
    , @Anon
  435. Trinity 说:
    @Robjil

    Great post !!! Thank you for sharing.

    • 谢谢: Robjil
  436. utu 说:
    @Robjil

    “Real and rational anti-war people will not fall for this trap.” – I am afraid they constitute a minority in the US.

    • 同意: John Chuckman
  437. nickels 说:

    The number of tests / number of positives in my state has been a steady 10% since day one. Which means CV has always been out there and is not growing. It is just one of the many flu strains this year.
    Similarly, for my state and the US, if we make an absurdly modest estimate that number of cases is 10x the number of positives, the mortality rate is .1%.
    The virus appears to be growing exponentially because the number of tests is growing exponentially, and are sampling a thoroughly mixed population.

  438. Just went to reddit.com/conspiracy there are some very interesting but very depressing postings , unless there are some “white hats” out there, who will come to our rescue, we are f-cked. One of the postings was written three years ago and is entitled : “Trump is a massive psyop” :
    “At some point when the forces command it he will cause some sort of panic…”

  439. Anon[105]• 免责声明 说:

    Lockdowns will have to last several months, in the EU as well as USA. (Also because under lockdown you reduce the virus spread, ypu certainly don’t halt it).

    • 不同意: Desert Fox
  440. geokat62 说:

    For example, New York Times Columnist Nicholas Kristof on Sunday reported the disheartening analysis of Dr. Neil Ferguson of Britain, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists. According to Dr. Ferguson the “best case” scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill over a million Americans.

    Looks like Ferguson has downgraded his previous projection by two orders of magnitude!

    摘录自 Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection:

    Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model?ref=hvper.com

  441. Breaking news. USA just became the country with the most confirmed cases.

  442. utu 说:

    Ron Unz, an update on parameters:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1
    COVID-19 疾病严重程度的估计

    “We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days (95% credible interval, crI 16.9,19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge to be 22.6 days (95% crI 21.1,24.4 days). We estimate a crude CFR of 3.67% (95% crI 3.56%,3.80%) in cases from mainland China. Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China, we obtain a best estimate of the CFR in China of 1.38% (95% crI 1.23%,1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages. Our estimate of the CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 or 60 and above) are consistent with these estimates from China. We obtain an overall IFR estimate for China of 0.66% (0.39%,1.33%), again with an increasing profile with age. Interpretation”

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf
    The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression

    “On the basis of the observed three-day doubling time in the incidence of deaths across Europe,”

    “a 3-day doubling time, consistent with current observations in Europe”

    • 回复: @Ron Unz
  443. @Intelligent Dasein

    I don’t think I’ve ever read anything more bizarre than that. Every word of it is wrong. Government is not a “concept” at all.

    The concept of government as an authoritative hierarchy with specialized divisions that have semi-autonomy while still working towards greater goals as set by a central power is a White/Western creation.

    • 不同意: Spanky
  444. Ron Unz 说:
    @utu

    We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days

    I felt that the three week infection-to-death estimate I was using probably had the weakest support among my parameters since I’d only seen a few people casually use it, without source references.

    But if this study finds 18 days from first symptoms to death and we assume a few days between infection and onset of symptoms, it looks like the three week estimate was actually pretty good.

    • 同意: utu
    • 回复: @Anon
    , @niceland
  445. @Swan knight

    The COVID-19 scare is psychological Warfare. History will remember it as the biggest fraud ever perpetrated to stifle dissent, manipulate the economy, and mandate medicine. The West is committing cultural, spiritual, political, and economic suicide over a weak virus.

    So NYC is committing fraud right now? Cuomo is lying about needing respirators?

    At which point will the conspiracy theorists admit this is a problem? When the NYC health care system collapses? Should be within a week at the most.

    Trump should be calling in the military and locking NYC down at this point.

    If it gets bad enough we will see an “escape from NY” scenario.

    • 哈哈: Ron Unz
    • 回复: @refl
  446. Anon[437]• 免责声明 说:
    @Robjil

    Carlson has always been a cynical and nihilistic opportunist.

    Carlson originally supported the Iraq invasion and said that those who opposed Bush’s invasion sounded just like Osama bin Laden. He also supported a preemptive strike on Iran and said that Iran “deserved” to be “annihilated”. And he also said the US should wage war to seize oil. See the following thread:

    • 同意: Desert Fox, Robjil
  447. Uradel666 说:
    @Corvinus

    Please, don’t throw toys out of pram!
    I have a good chance of telling you a thing or two but I won’t.
    Fine with you?

    • 回复: @Corvinus
  448. Alfred 说:
    @Spanky

    Academics tried to find a way of measuring years lost due to ill health and they came up with this:

    Disability-adjusted life year

    I am 69 myself and I don’t consider myself indispensable. If the price of allowing the economy to continue functioning and for young people to be able work and have families is to allow older and more frail people to pass away then I am all for it. It is not correct for the old to penalize the young and destroy their lives. It is dysgenic and unnatural.

    The point I am making is that by over-protecting the elderly and frail we are damaging the young and energetic. That is not natural and should not be the case. We don’t live in a zero-risk world and we never will.

    In a few months, we will see a rise in suicides, violence and early deaths from alcohol and drugs in the USA – just like in Russia during the Yeltsin years. That seems unavoidable at present due to your way of thinking being considered normal.

    Back in 2001, a UNICEF-IRC study had already claimed 3.2 million unnecessary deaths due to capitalist restoration. The Lancet study cites other figures, with up to “10 million missing men because of system change.” As a result, adult mortality rates soared, up almost 13% in Russia, with much of the increase attributable to the mass unemployment that followed the collapse in state enterprises. The study noted, “the Russian population lost nearly 5 years of life expectancy between 1991 and 1994.”

    Lancet Study Confirms Millions Died From “Shock Therapy”

    Sometime in 1993, after several trips to Russia, I noticed something bizarre and disturbing: people kept dying. I was used to losing friends to AIDS in the United States, but this was different. People in Russia were dying suddenly and violently, and their own friends and colleagues did not find these deaths shocking. Upon arriving in Moscow I called a friend with whom I had become close over the course of a year. “Vadim is no more,” said his father, who picked up the phone. “He drowned.” I showed up for a meeting with a newspaper reporter to have the receptionist say, “But he is dead, don’t you know?” I didn’t. I’d seen the man a week earlier; he was thirty and apparently healthy. The receptionist seemed to think I was being dense. “A helicopter accident,” she finally said, in a tone that seemed to indicate I had no business being surprised.

    The Dying Russians

    • 回复: @utu
    , @Spanky
    , @J. Gutierrez
  449. @Gleimhart Mantooso

    The non-gullible people don’t all live in one place, silly. But the gullible ones sure are concentrated in these United States. Either it is the fluoride in the water, or the fact that they start watching television at the age of six months. There are scientific reasons for this. And they weren’t as gullible earlier, but they have been ahead of the rest of the world in this regard for a long time. How well do you know other countries? How many languages do you speak? Can you locate Iraq on a map? But not everyone here is gullible either, just the overwhelming majority. And they vote for the candidate of their choice.

  450. @Pandour

    New York Police Commissioner Dermot Shea who the other day said that 211 officers tested positive

    好吧。

    纽约市警察局

    Employees 55,304

    211 ÷ 55,304 = 00.4%
    With probably or maybe testing literally everyone. And this in NY with high concentration of people, and a with police who go around interacting with people all day.

    in Croatia…two dead thus far

    Two? Shut…Down…Everything

    its all a global conspiracy involving numerous governments,the media…all working in concert with one another to bilk humanity for nefarious ends.

    是的。

    • 回复: @Corvinus
  451. utu 说:
    @Alfred

    In a few months, we will see a rise in suicides, violence and early deaths from alcohol and drugs in the USA – just like in Russia during the Yeltsin years.

    What if the effect is opposite? In Russia people found themselves isolated and atomized which was new to them, the trend was anti-communitarian, everybody for himself and some people were doing very well in new situation so there was a great sense of injustice and lack of fairness while in the US during a lockdown the direction is opposite: It is more communitarian, we are all in it together for a greater good, people are pulled together away form the atomization.

    • 回复: @Biff
  452. Paul C. 说:
    @Pandour

    the facts be damned.

    Where are your facts? You just restate what you’re told and believe every word of it. Like weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I’m sure that was good enough for you, let’s kill 1M Iraqi’s and then never apologize when it was proven a lie.

    You stated 2 have died from the virus in Croatia and in an earlier post you said you knew one of them, a young man. What’s his name? I’d like to look up his obit and perhaps pass along condolences to his family and better understand how he died. 2 dead is a pandemic in your mind?

    You don’t believe in a global conspiracy, so answer me this. On 9/11 the US gov’t and MSM claimed 19 Saudi’s hijacked planes and flew them into buildings. They showed us their pictures and gave us their names. But when we citizens demanded evidence and therefore the passengers lists from the flights, the FBI said it was “classified” national security. Does that make sense to you? They told us their names and showed us photos, we wanted to examine the evidence that would prove that these 19 purchased airline tickets. The reason the passenger lists are classified is because they’re covering up a lie. The 19 Saudi’s is a cover story. And none of the media that you believe with all your heart will ever report on this. Because they can’t, they’re controlled. This is one example of a million. And it’s not limited to the gov’t and media, but also to the medical industry and many others. People can be corrupted and are.

    If you want the truth you have to seek it. Step 1 is to turn off your TV. Step 2 is to find independent sources. Step 3 is to use discernment. Step 4 is to validate your findings.

    Effectively there are no national governments. The world has been subsumed by a bunch of parasite Central Bankers who create money and change humanity interest. This clique of money changers have given us zionism, communism, fascism, socialism and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Not much has changed in 2000 years. Jesus called them the Synagogue of Satan. This is what humanity is up against. Forced vaccinations I believe is one of the main agendas being pushed with this “virus”. We need people like you to wake up and join the resistance. Stop defending the terrorists.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  453. @Pandour

    The crematorium in Bergamo at full capacity 24 hours a day

    ****. We need the UN to invade right away and put the mayor of Bergamo on trial for war crimes.

    • 回复: @Peripatetic Commenter
  454. Corvinus 说:
    @Uradel666

    “I have a good chance of telling you a thing or two but I won’t. Fine with you?”

    If you want to remain evasive, be my guest.

  455. Corvinus 说:
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    “its all a global conspiracy involving numerous governments,the media…all working in concert with one another to bilk humanity for nefarious ends”

    等等,我以为 Covid-19 大流行最终会让全球化和移民屈服,而犹太银行业阴谋集团将戛然而止!

    https://culturewars.com/news/the-coronavirus-and-the-culture-war

    就像在40世纪中叶夺走了欧洲14%人口的黑死病,在马泰的眼中预示着中世纪的终结,冠状病毒大流行也预示着美国帝国的终结和全球化时代的到来,像乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)这样的寡头所实践。 全球化既是当前危机的肇因者,也是最终的受害者,因为全球化“破坏了空间并粉碎了距离”。 但是由于上帝掌管历史,全球化发现自己受到了理性的狡猾,造成了“社会距离,个人与隔离的隔离”,所有这些“都与乔治所希望的'开放社会'相对立”。索罗斯。” 德马泰(De Mattei)认为,这种大流行正在终结“无国界的世界”。

  456. Richard B 说:
    @Trinity

    I can’t believe the number of people who are falling for this SHIT.

    好样的!

    Couldn’t agree more. But have already used “Agree” in another comment.

    I identify with your frustration. But it might be helpful to know that the story about The Coronavirus, like that of The Holocaust and September 11th, 2001, begins with

    黄飞鸿

    Because each of those stories, and not just those stories, were written by the same people.

    The only difference is the narrative has become even more simple-minded and childish.

    Like their impossible to believe in Myth Of Innocence, which says, in effect, “We never do anything wrong. Things are done to us.”

    This kind of thinking is the foundation, not just of fanaticism, but of psychopathology as well.

    Also, the fact that our Teaching-Learning Institutions have been converted by this same hostile elite into Indoctrination Camps, so that no one receives any training in the all important intellectual skills of rigorous thinking, consistent reasoning, and cautious judgment, explains why so many people are drinking the hostile elite’s kool-aid without a catch in the throat.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  457. Desert Fox 说:
    @Richard B

    Agree, and the book The Controversy of Zion by Douglas Reed explains this zionist goal of world control, the book can be had on amazon.com.

  458. joe webb 说:

    在福克斯新闻之夜
    弗格森的家伙的数字很差......回到这个线程的开头。给出了更正的数字,但我不记得他们的逻辑。

    无论如何,这是恐吓战术,劳拉和她的客人说。乔韦伯

  459. Uradel666 说:

    1. There are three types of Coronavirus based on its Genetic traits: 1) HcoV-226E, 2) HcoV-Oc43, HeCoV, 3) SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV (+ 2019-nCov). Some Epidemiologists view s Rotavirus (Reovirus-like agent, HNvO) as the sub-type of Coronavirus.

    2. All three types are Cold_Like Viruses.

    3. The Last type (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) is more dangerous than others which included.

    4. SARS-CoV causes Atypical pneumonia (SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome). SARS-CoV outbreak in 2002-2004 with 774 deaths Worldwide.

    5. MERS-CoV causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. MERS-CoV outbreak 400 deaths Worldwide.

    6. That is lie to say that there is no existing immunity to Coronavirus.
    a) All people have a type-specific (or compound-specific) immunу reasponse to Coronavirus (as well as to All Viruses); Some people have no time to develop a species-specific (or Host-dependent) immune response to 2019-nCov (This is a separate topic).

    b) You should understand that the virus (initial Virus) once people get inside the Immune System is not the same virus (Virion here) that people pass (transmit ) on to the external environment (further to another people). This Virion is a noncritical form of the initial Virus . Coronavirus transmitted from one person to another becomes progressively less dangerous than the Initial Virus. That’s why any epidemic abruptly stops sometimes even with no medical help.

    7. No “high human death rate” is found in the Genetics of Coronavirus (Any of them). It is genetically not supposed to kill a large number of people.

    a) The Question is why so many new “2019-nCov” cases and different contamination map spectrum.

    In my opinion, the Virus (“2019-nCov” ) is pre-planted in all those places around the world!!!

    b) According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positivelytested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

    c) 80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

    d) Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women .

    e) The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both;

    f) The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases);

    g) In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far.

    h) The approximately twelve test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of 80 years and a maximum age of 90 years, whose exact cause of death.

    i) virus test kits initially falsely indicated an infection with SARS coronaviruses.

    8. That is lie to say that nCov Disease is contagious. That is NOT true at all! Coronavirus (2019-nCov) is not highly contagious but has long contagious period. It is all the difference in the world. Contagious of “2019nCov” far less than chicken-pox or Flu. That’s why there are 15 million case of flu and 10000 deaths in the US from the Flu for the same period (as of January 20, 2020).

    9. Alike, pathogenicity (disease-evoking power) and virulence of this Virus is like a time-average force. Not Dangerous. On the other hand, German measles, chicken-pox, Flu and many others have much more higher level of pathogenicity (disease-evoking power) and virulence.

    10. Any virus has its own receptor target. “2019-nCov” is nothing more than ACE2 Target Virus (Asian and Arab Specifically). Asian People have reverse alleles in Nag-ST (nucleotide sequence) to those Receptors compare with White People (with high level Rb1 with same alleles). That’s why White People is not at a highrisk group to “2019-nCov” .

    11. The Question is why so many new “2019-nCov” cases and different contamination map spectrum. In my opinion, the Virus (“2019-nCov” ) is intentionally pre-planted in all places of the World!!!

    It is all about Benjamins.

    • 谢谢: Alfred
  460. anastasia 说:

    And people like this turned Trump into our Nanny……………

    Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson who wrote the Imperial College London coronavirus model which was massively shared on social media, including by the New York Times, is now backing down his death toll claims. Ferguson’s death rate model helped shape our temporary shelter down policies.

    Originally, Ferguson said that 2.2 million will perish in the United States as a result of coronavirus. He predicted half a million deaths in the U.K. alone. This was if there was no action taken.

    But now, Ferguson says the data was skewed. He says that many more people probably have or have had coronavirus, which means his original results are off.

    He now says that hospitals in the U.K. will be fine. He’s predicting 20,000 deaths there, or “far fewer.”

    “This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” stated former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson.

    “He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

    Berenson says that fear-mongering media is refusing to cover the story because it doesn’t fit into their apocalyptic coverage.

    • 回复: @utu
    , @niceland
  461. @NPleeze

    Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think all immune folks have generated the specific antibody for a virus, sometimes the body’s general defenses can defeat it and then “no trace” is left behind (but then you can catch the disease again later).

    According to Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University, who estimates that half the UK population are already immune to Covid-19:

    第一:

    that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

    第二:

    To provide the necessary evidence, [i.e., evidence of widespread immunity (around 50%) in the UK] the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

    来源: “金融时报”

    • 回复: @NPleeze
  462. @utu

    纽约每日死亡人数 –> 暗示的死亡翻倍期非常短

    Will likely follow a normal curve, peaking quite soon, for a total death toll probably less than than from influenza (131, 604 lab-confirmed cases of influenza in New York as of mid-February).

    Question is, why do infections and deaths turn down so quickly, whether in Wuhan, Korea or likely New York?

    Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University believes it is because of the acquisition of immunity in the population at large, causing R0 to fall.

    Immunological surveys in Britain should reveal within days whether that theory is correct. If it is correct, that would indicate that most infections with covid19 do not result in serious illness, possibly because of multiple strains of the virus, all of which confer immunity, even to the most virulent strains.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  463. utu 说:
    @anastasia

    弗格森仍然在说同样的话:如果不采取任何措施,如果 40 bl 被感染,则 7 万,这意味着美国为 1.9 万,英国为 0.34 万。

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

  464. @refl

    仍然不相信电晕。 My disbelief is growing by the day

    As are the casualties you retard

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Almost 50K casualties yesterday & USA USA USA she’s leading the pandemic olympics now. I suppose they’re all – the numerous denizens of 190 countries – all crisis actors paid by the NWO Rotschilds.

    • 回复: @refl
    , @glib
  465. @Corvinus

    Show how exactly the Rothschilds ate directly involved in the Covid 19 hoax.

    It’s pointless arguing against a crackpot swarm, it’s like trying to shoot locusts with bullets.

    • 哈哈: John Johnson
    • 回复: @John Johnson
  466. @Robjil

    This sedation killing of older people has been going on a lot time in the US.

    There’s nothing morally condemnable about pulling the plug on comatose patients after a reasonable amount of time which decreases as you age after all the world aborts Down’s syndrome foetuses so why not at the other end of the age spectrum

  467. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @9/11 Inside job

    I am well aware of who owns and controls the mainstream media,its frightfully destructive role and primary aims of social engineering and creating an alternate reality as opposed to the real.Dont need to lecture me,thank you.I also believe that Freemasonry is Satans church on earth,among other things,but not everything can be lumped into one basket. I dont know what you mean by hoax.The reality is that thousands of people have died from this disease thus far.Anyone denying that at this point is either illiterate or insane.

    • 回复: @9/11 Inside job
  468. Spanky 说:
    @Alfred

    You failed to answer my direct question: If someone has any pre-existing condition(s) but a long remaining life expectancy, and they become infected with Covid-19 which turns serious and they die, do we credit Covid-19 or the pre-existing condition with their death?

    Frankly, how academics value my life (disabled or not) doesn’t matter much to me. My quality of life is good, I’m active, content and neither a burden on my family nor the state. Nor do I consider myself indispensable, the world will get along just fine without me. But I fail to see how reasonable precautions against spreading this virus indiscriminately penalizes the young and destroys their lives…

    Especially considering this is a novel disease and, apparently, a biological weapon — how do we know what might happen to both young and old, pre-existing conditions or none, within six months, one year, or two? We are at the leading edge of this thing, only a few months into it, and all previous pandemics with which I’m familiar required years to burn themselves out. We don’t even know if infection and recovery confers immunity. Indeed, there are anecdotal accounts of recovered patients suddenly dropping, if not dead, then certainly in serious distress.

    Additionally IMO, China is not lying about the numbers of their Covid-19 infections and deaths. That is not to say they identified every person infected by Covid-19, but then neither has the US. However, you’ll notice that today the number of identified Covid-19 infections in the US equaled (then surpassed) China’s total. Our deaths, however, are only about one-third of China’s (at present). I think, if we were able stop all further US infections, that within six weeks US deaths would be approximately equal to those in China (with similar recovery rates).

    Which is very good news in my opinion, with the exception that US confirmed cases have already begun spiraling out of control. And hence the need for continued, and possibly more, quarantines. It’s not the death rate, per se, but the rate of spread (with a short-term effect of overwhelming healthcare systems) coupled with a lack knowledge about this bio-weapon’s potential effects over the longer term.

    Lastly, it is interesting to note that many pundits and posters who accuse China of vastly understating its infections and deaths (claiming Chinese doctors were ordered to falsify death certificates with any other cause than coronavirus) then turn around and accuse Italian and US doctors of attributing every death possible to coronavirus in order to pump up its numbers.

    Surely, considering our lack of understanding and all the misinformation, outright lies and bullshit surrounding this virus the prudent thing to do is act with extreme caution. If we over-react, but are successful in stopping it, we can at least laugh about it later. But if we treat it lightly, as we’ve been doing, that may not be an option.

    Good luck to you. This looks to be an interesting, if bumpy, ride.

  469. Janko 说:
    @niteranger

    Many very reputed Epidemiologist,Doctors,professors in this field is calling this a HOAX,Ron Unz,is correct,all his life is a brilliant men

    • 回复: @Grahamsno(G64)
  470. Spanky 说:
    @UK

    It’s interesting to note that many pundits and posters who accuse China of vastly understating its infections and deaths (claiming Chinese doctors falsified death certificates with any other cause than coronavirus) then turn around and accuse Italian and US doctors of attributing every death possible to coronavirus in order to pump up its numbers.

    One point, is anyone conducting post-mortem testing for Covid-19 on people who died (either in a hospital or out) with no previous testing?

    It appears you are making a distinction without a difference in your second point. You say potato and I say potato. If no other previous opportunistic infection caused their death (such as a previous bout of pneumonia), but Covid-19 related pneumonia does, you’re still asserting that the pre-existing condition killed them. I’m arguing that while their pre-existing condition may have predisposed them to a serious case, that Covid-19 is the proximate cause of their death. And again, this is easily verifiable by simply taking a CT scan of their lungs and looking for the classic ground glass appearance associated with Covid-19 lung infections.

    As far as “excess” deaths are concerned… it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

  471. refl 说:
    @Ashino

    The U.S. response is something President Trump has likened to a “war,” going so far as to label himself a “wartime President,” leading the U.S. against “the toughest enemy” in a struggle in which he vows “total victory.” If the fight against the coronavirus is a war, then the virus clearly took the U.S. government by surprise. “Certainly we didn’t get an early run on it, Trump noted in a press conference on March 17. “It would’ve been helpful if we knew about it earlier.”

    试试这个:

    https://consentfactory.org/2020/03/26/the-war-on-death/

    The war on death – by C.J Hopkins (not the Gates-funded university of the same name, that produces the panic inducing statistics for the Gates-funded WHO. )

  472. Wielgus 说:
    @Desert Fox

    Quite possibly it continued after 1991 – its origins however were in planning for stay-behind operations if the Warsaw Pact overran Western Europe.
    It seems to have blended with murkier stuff later – for example a scandal erupted in Turkey in the late 1990s when a wanted far-right gunman, Abdullah Çatlı, died in a car crash at Susurluk. The other occupants of the car were weapons, narcotics, a deputy police chief, the gunman’s girl friend and a pro-government Kurdish tribal chieftain. Only the last survived the wreck and has kept very quiet since. The event was Gladio in action.

    • 回复: @Desert Fox
  473. refl 说:
    @Grahamsno(G64)

    减速

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I also think that the Worldometer is retard business.
    Does anyone believe that to fill in data on Corona into a worlwide data base is even practically possible? The definitions and procedures are all makeshift. This is a typical Bill Gates invention: Huge, worlwide impact, and full of flaws
    – there is no distinction of cases that died OF / WITH corona
    – the largest part of patients, that do not show symptoms, never report to a doctor
    – this affects the elderly. Elderly people should avoid hospitals in the first place, because they get sicker there, not healthier
    – to drive up the numbers for the authors of this nothing burger is getting more important by the day, because in a sane world they would deserve to be shot.

    The interesting question in the aftermath will be, how the whole western world could be driven into such a mindless psychosis in a blink of an eye.

  474. refl 说:
    @John Johnson

    So NYC is committing fraud right now? Cuomo is lying about needing respirators?

    At which point will the conspiracy theorists admit this is a problem?

    They would most likely always have been in need of respirators, as the health system has probably always been on the verge of breakdown.
    It comes out, because people get admitted to hospital that other would just die without care and thus die quickly, and because the cameras are focused on the issue. This is no rocket science.

    A bit like the Maddof ponzy scheme: It was always a ponzy scheme and at some point had to break apart, and it broke apart on the occasion of an induced crisis, that Maddof did not foresee neither.

    As for the New York mayor: Wasn’t there once a guy in that position who ordered thousands of tons of WTC debris to be disappeared? And now you don’t believe that such people do not lie on the most massive scale?
    But probably he is just being pushed along as all those other front men.

  475. @Pandour

    With due respect how do you know “that thousands of people have died from this disease thus far” , are you relying on statistics published by the mainstream media which you admit has a “frightfully destructive role and primary aims of social engineering and creating an alternate reality…” As many commenters have noted there is no accurate or reliable test for the Coronavirus/COVID-19 , I believe that one commenter from Croatia noted that anyone who dies , even in a car accident, is reported as a death resulting from the Coronavirus ! I guess I am both illiterate and insane .
    P.S. Google : “Corruption at the CDC and WHO ”

    • 回复: @Pandour
  476. Pandour 说: • 您的网站
    @9/11 Inside job

    Please keep channeling those cosmic vibrations through your tin foil hat.I really miss the X-Files.

    • 回复: @9/11 Inside job
  477. Gleongelpi 说:

    In the Wikipedia page for coronavirus in Italy, there is a chart that breaks down the known-infected and dead by age. It is very instructive if one has any reasoning abilities at all.

  478. Iva 说:

    On Dec 3 2020 in UN scientists and doctors were saying that adjuvent in vaccines cause life long serious conditions , but “we do not have anything else at this time” . Then we should wait. Big Pharma will not do anything regarding safety unless we stop all vaccinations. I red that the vaccines for coronavirus will be in 2 doses , and the first will have larger amount of adjuvant. So, we all will end up with diabetes or autoimmune condition that will destroy our body and life and put more financial stress on us and the country. 

  479. @Pandour

    Suggested reading for everyone : “Why the media lies”mediamonitors.net

  480. @Grahamsno(G64)

    It’s pointless arguing against a crackpot swarm, it’s like trying to shoot locusts with bullets.

    I think you created the perfect name for this website: Crackpot Swarm.

    This website seems to attract some interesting and intelligent people but it also attracts a certain contingent that would look at a quacking duck in from of them and conclude that it’s a bear sent by the Rothchilds.

    • 同意: Spanky
    • 哈哈: another fred, UK
    • 回复: @John Chuckman
  481. annamaria 说:
    @Commentator Mike

    Who would think that out?
    “FBI Claims ‘Neo-Nazi Plot’ to Deliberately Infect Jews and Cops with COVID-19,” by Eric Striker (National Justice) https://russia-insider.com/en/fbi-claims-neo-nazi-plot-deliberately-infect-jews-and-cops-covid-19/ri28470

    According to an FBI report cited by World Jewish Congress head Ronald Lauder, bands of “white nationalists” and “neo-Nazis” are currently roaming the streets of New York City purposely infecting Jewish people, minorities and police officers in a secret plot to spread the modern plague.

    Lauder’s outlandish claim dovetails with the leak of a Department of Homeland Security report uploaded by Sharon Weinberger claiming that jokes and memes about coronavirus they have found on 4Chan constitute a credible “bioweapon threat” against Jewish people. The document asserts that white nationalists are planning to spray Jews with their infected saliva and spend time in public with minorities.

    There is no evidence that this is happening or ever has happened. It is a baseless blood libel against white people intended to hide the failures of these demagogues in the midst of a crisis. The hate crimes against random Asians in the US so far appear to be committed largely by blacks.

    Jewish people have been spreading coronavirus among themselves due to their poor hygiene, a penchant for international travel, and refusal to follow prescriptions on social distancing. In New Jersey, Jews were arrested in two separate instances for hosting weddings in defiance of temporary laws against large social gatherings. One of the earliest reported contagion ground zeroes in America was a Shabbat dinner. Among the biggest hot spots are Kiryas Joel, New Rochelle, Williamsburg, and various other parts of the northeast with massive Jewish populations.

    Ronald Lauder is not only blind to his tribesmen’s “poor hygiene, a penchant for international travel, and refusal to follow prescriptions on social distancing,” Ronald Lauder is also a prominent figure in Epstein saga. As a member of the ghastly Mega Group and a promoter of Epstein, Ronald Lauder certainly fits to lead the hatred-oozing World Jewish Congress. https://www.mintpressnews.com/mega-group-maxwells-mossad-spy-story-jeffrey-epstein-scandal/261172/

    The Mega Group’s role in the Epstein case has garnered some attention, as Epstein’s main financial patron for decades, billionaire Leslie Wexner, was a co-founder of the group that unites several well-known businessmen with a penchant for pro-Israel and ethno-philanthropy (i.e., philanthropy benefiting a single ethnic or ethno-religious group)….another uniting factor among Mega Group members is deep ties to organized crime…

    Perhaps the best illustration of how the connections between many of these players often meld together can be seen in Ronald Lauder: a Mega Group member, former member of the Reagan administration, long-time donor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s Likud Party, as well as a long-time friend of Donald Trump and Roy Cohn. …

    … Lauder himself has been alleged to have ties to Mossad, as he is a long-time funder of IDC Herzliya, an Israeli university closely associated with Mossad and their recruiters as well as Israeli military intelligence. Lauder even founded IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy.

    Why Ronald Lauder — this Mossad operative and promoter of Epstein — is not in jail for his anti-American activities is a question for the FBI.

    • 回复: @Robjil
    , @Iris
  482. Anonymous[225]• 免责声明 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    Question is, why do infections and deaths turn down so quickly, whether in Wuhan, Korea or likely New York?

    Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University believes it is because of the acquisition of immunity in the population at large, causing R0 to fall.

    Anyone named Sunetra Gupta should be repatriated back to his native shitting street and subsequently ignored. Is he seriously omitting the effect of lockdowns on the numbers?

    • 回复: @PiltdownMan
    , @CanSpeccy
  483. @ken19

    you don’t kill the victim to cure the disease.

    Oh, but they do.

    Look at he death toll Iraq or Libya paid for being freed from their admittedly quite murderous dictators, and are still paying.

    At least the victims are not murdered by dictators anymore, so in a sense the underlying problem is solved. At a price.

    • 哈哈: Spanky
  484. Trinity 说:

    Uh, other than an EMJ article, I find it DAMN ODD that NO ONE is mentioning Charles Leiber, you know the freak, he was with the Department Of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard. He was apprehend with 2 Chinese nationals trying to smuggle 21 vials of biological research out of the U.S. to China in January of this year. Where is Professor (((Leiber)))) now? Anyone know? I will do a search but maybe someone can tell me before I search this Jew. It is so funny that some Jew always turns up or is it?

    Is Leiber the equivalent of a Larry Silverstein or the 5 Dancing Shlomos?

    Is this YET ANOTHER COHENcidence? Nah, that would be an (((anti-Semitic))) conspiracy again, right? After all, the Jews have suffered so much, right? And the Jews and Israel are our bestest best friends forever and ever and ever. They are the people in the Holy Bible, right? LOLOLOL. YEAH RIGHT.

    • 同意: Desert Fox
  485. J 说:
    @dearieme

    Mr Unz’s logic is right but to extrapolate to thousands of death he has to assume that Americans are impotent morons, and they are not. When the Chinese understood that they had an epidemic, they acted and in a couple of weeks the disease died off. In the epicenter, Wuhan, today, the epidemy has been stopped, almost no more newly infected, the emergency hospital was folded and life is returning to normal. If the Chinese succeeded, why should America fail? Anyway, two hundred labortories are racing to manufacture a vaccine, so the end cannot be far away. I am old but optimist.

  486. Desert Fox 说:
    @Wielgus

    The CIA and the Mossad and MI6 are hand in glove with NATO in it’s assassinations and terror operations known as Operation Gladio.

  487. @Anonymous

    Senetra Gupta is a woman.

    http://sunetragupta.com/biography.asp

    She is a professor of theoretical epidemiology and a “harassment officer” at Oxford University.

    She wrote a book in 2013, arguing that we’re not due for a pandemic despite the sporadic scares such as SARS etc.

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18894228-pandemics

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  488. Anon[295]• 免责声明 说:
    @Ron Unz

    https://covidtracking.com/data/

    You might like this dataset Ron. It has positives, negatives, pendings (in some places), hospitalizations, and deaths broken down by state and territory. A nice note is that it adds caveats for grading the quality of the data each state provides.

    The biggest limitation here is that the US is only testing symptomatic cases for the most part. Considering that 6/7 are asymptomatic or mild illnesses that’s an issue. I don’t think this can be factored in too well at the moment, but any real stats whizzes here might know how.

  489. @Anonymous

    Anyone named Sunetra Gupta should be repatriated back to his native shitting streetand subsequently ignored.

    Your comment is irrelevant. Professor Gupta is a woman.

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  490. @John Johnson

    Your description strikes me as accurate.

    I am a relative newcomer to the site, and I have been returning because some of the articles are excellent and some of the commenters are quite knowledgeable people.

    Ron Unz also has to have the most generous and open-minded comment facility anywhere. That says a lot about someone, all of it good. And the way he has it working, as with “new comment” is remarkable.

    It is an attraction for sure, but you are right, it attracts some who sound like characters from “Plan 9 from Outer Space” and some who read like members of the Azov Battalion in Ukraine, people who do torch-light parades with armbands and drums.

    I sure could do without the latter, but you can’t get the meritorious things without being exposed to what is a true swamp.

    It does have the value of giving you a measure of just how many kinds of people are “out there,” something you might never really sense otherwise.

    The human condition is messy, complex, and at least as ugly as it ever is beautiful.

    It really is amazing to me that people manage to communicate at all sometimes. There are so many instances in comments where people are responding angrily to something they clearly have not understood or thought through.

    • 同意: Spanky, Wielgus
    • 谢谢: Ron Unz
    • 回复: @Wielgus
    , @Turk 152
  491. @CanSpeccy

    Technical evaluation of Sunetra Gupta’s unpublished model suggesting that half the British population has already had the bat flu is 可在这里.

    A Key conclusion:

    Serological surveys are required to assess the proportion of a population infected. They are also essential to accurately assess the mortality rate.

    And with new tests providing rapid results now available and plans in hand to undertake a population survey, a definitive judgement should be available within days. Then the modelers can return to their well-deserved obscurity.

  492. Wielgus 说:
    @John Chuckman

    I sense where he is coming from but I have learned to navigate among the tares to find the wheat. I do have a distrust of the mainstream media, especially now.

  493. Hu Mi Yu 说:

    Your exponential model is valid for the initial stages of the contagion. As the number of infected individuals rises, the exponent decreases eventually becoming close to zero. You can tell which regions are approaching saturation by watching how the exponent changes with time. China has reached saturation with about 0.005% of the population being confirmed. The doubling time there is around 1000 days. Italy was hit next, and their doubling time is over 7 days. Washington was the first US state to be hit, and it now has a doubling time of 6 days. New York is the most recent casualty, and their doubling time is between 2 and 3 days.

    Conclusion is that the exponential growth does not go on for long, and in the end only a small fraction of the population will be affected. The data appears to contradict the common assumption that there is no preexisting immunity (everyone is succeptible).

    COVID-19 is not comparable to the great epidemics of history.

    Here is some data copied from the Johns Hopkins real time site*.

    Confirmed Cases of COVID-19

    Date time PDT China Italy USA Washington New York
    3/19 18:43 81,172 41,035 13,768 1,376 5,365
    3/20 18:43 81,279 47,021 19,285 1,524 8,398
    3/21 18:43 81,321 53,578 25,493 1,793 11,710
    3/22 18:43 81,432 59,138 33,276 1,996 15,793
    3/23 18:43 81,498 63,927 43,901 2,221 20,885
    3/24 18:57 81,591 69,176 54,893 2,469 26,374
    3/25 18:52 81,667 74,386 68,572 2,593 33,006
    3/25 18:31 81,782 80,589 85,505 3,207 39,125

    doubling time 10^1000 >7 3 6 2-3 days

    *Johns Hopkins Site: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

  494. glib 说:
    @Grahamsno(G64)

    Fortunately total mortality is decreasing. So if we defeat CV we could even achieve immortality, or at least cure cancer. In Europe for example, excess deaths are ten times lower than in early 2017. Granted 2017 was a bad flu year. Be careful in calling other retards, you can not even read and interpret a graph. Are you a product of american academia? The one you point to is generated by an accounting trick by which anyone dying with the CV is assigned to CV.

    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
  495. 罗恩

    First off, I have immense respect for you and this site for speaking courageously about what ails our society, regardless of if it’s political correct. Your indefatigable pursuit of the truth is an inspiration.

    In this particular case, however I think you are mistaken. A lot of people are making this particular mistake when they are trying to spread fear about this virus. I doubt that is what you are doing, but just the same, it is what it is.

    Specifically, you are drawing attention to the likely truth that there are a lot more infected than have been tested positive in any given population, but then you don’t factor this into the death rate calculation; you just assume the 1% number is correct. But this is wrong, because they use the tested positive number to determine the death rate per infection. So if this number, seated in the denominator, gets much bigger, by a factor of “eight to ten times” or more, then the death rate needs to be downgraded by a similar amount.

    You can’t have it both ways. You can’t have the higher infection total and keep the same death rate. Because deaths and severe cases are much more likely to be counted and tested positive than the vast majority who only have mild symptoms from this cold. The truth of the matter as far as I can see is that there are many more people who have likely contracted the virus, but this means that the death rate is far less than is currently being communicated. So more people are getting this than we’re aware of but it’s not as lethal as we’ve been led to believe.

    People need to start going back to work. We can’t just let the government shut down our civilization and our economy (and it is ours, not theirs) over some bug they’ve hyped out of all proportion.

    • 回复: @James Scott
  496. ponderer 说:

    @罗恩·恩兹(Ron Unz)

    I think you may have an interesting technique there. At the least we can say that regardless of what the *真的* infection rate is (which ends up being an average over all cases after the fact), that deaths are tied to and lag that value seems intuitive. Using death rate as an approximate for infection rates might not be accurate until those mortality values are established, but I don’t really think its necessary to go that far (to establish an instantaneous infection rate or mortality rate). As long as we know they are tied together we can look at the rate of change of the death rate and know until it starts decreasing that our controls haven’t been adequate.

    The people complaining about your estimations of Ro or mortality, etc. are IMHO missing the important bit. The death rate will either decrease gradually as the smaller groups of susceptible people become infected, or suddenly drop to zero when there are no more people to be infected. As long as the doubling period decreases we aren’t / can’t be out of the woods. If it stays the same, we aren’t out of the woods. Only when it starts increasing can we think that the situation has stabilized.

  497. Anonymous[278]• 免责声明 说:
    @Hu Mi Yu

    Conclusion is that the exponential growth does not go on for long, and in the end only a small fraction of the population will be affected. The data appears to contradict the common assumption that there is no preexisting immunity (everyone is succeptible).

    The conclusion is that lockdowns work. I have no idea why some people completely ignore the effect of shutting down all non-essential activity in a region/country on the COVID-19 ability to propagate.

    • 回复: @Hu Mi Yu
  498. @Hu Mi Yu

    Hu Mi Yu,

    Great observation. People get a little ridiculous when they hear ‘exponential’ growth. They start plugging number into calculators and get absurd numbers. But reality doesn’t play by those rules. The exponential period only lasts so long.

  499. Anonymous[278]• 免责声明 说:
    @PiltdownMan

    a “harassment officer” at Oxford University.

    In that case, I’m willing to buy her the plane ticket myself.

  500. @Ami

    Yes I agree completely. This is basically a big hoax to get us to surrender our liberties.

  501. glib 说:
    @Janko

    I know one directly (a friend of mine, a doctor) in Italy, and perhaps a dozen second hand (friends of family, or patients of my doctor friends). One patient has died, I don’t know the age of deceased. Everyone else is fine. All of them diagnosed at least two weeks ago, those whose age I know are in their 50s and 60s except one 30-something, so outcomes are clear by now. No respirators were needed.

  502. Robjil 说:
    @annamaria

    This sounds like projection. This spraying idea is probably how coronavirus happened in Iran, Italy, China and Spain. A normal virus flows across borders, it does not hit ZioUS empire targets like bull’s eyes.

    It is ironic that Lombardy is now one of the major centers of the coronavirus. During the black plague, Milan, capitol of Lombardy, and Poland were the regions that escaped the most from it in Europe.

    But by contrast, another northern city, Milan, avoided a major outbreak. Whether this was due to control measures taken by city authorities, including sealing up three houses (with the occupants inside) after plague was discovered there, is debatable. The Milanese authorities could certainly be firm. From 1350 they decreed that all future plague victims and those nursing them would be isolated in a designated pesthouse built outside the city walls.

    Cities hardest hit during the outbreak of 1348-1350 tried to take measures to control an epidemic no one understood. “In Milan, to take one of the most successful examples, city officials immediately walled up houses found to have the plague, isolating the healthy in them along with the sick. Venice took sophisticated and stringent quarantine and health measures, including isolating all incoming ships on a separate island. But people died anyway, though fewer in Milan and Venice than in cities that took no such measures”

    http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/general/articles/BlackDeath.aspx

  503. @glib

    You have it cornered. No bother to explain to anyone, the excess death rate for the totals of the population all groups confounded is not there most probably. No numbers are advanced in Europe, this must be intentionally. Muffling mortality rates but the self declared Corona cases reeks of bankers arithmetic. Only juggling numbers the authorities can fabricate at will, backtrack on, can be endlessly recycled. This is modeled of course on the stock markets and their Harry Potter vocabulary.

    There is intentional abuse and deceit at work. In Europe the total mortality rate over the population for the day versus the Corona mortality rate for the day is never announced. The mortality rate for the day is no secret to the administrations. It is hidden on purpose, it can be a best clue to analyze real time what is going on. Best we have. If these numbers are available somewhere, then please fill me in, then the above logic can be retracted in part. The total mortality rate is crucial to pitch agains averages in recent years, medians, building theoretical models.

    Our guess is the same, not much of excess mortality, not even when allowing for virus waves, versus cancer flat base lines. One could say Corona is a benign pandemic, crimping the death count of all other causes of mortality lumped. As you said so well, immortality is close.

    • 回复: @glib
    , @PetrOldSack
  504. From a personal point of view the important question is not how many people are going to die and that we can estimate the number of infected based on the number of deaths.

    The important question, or questions are:

    1. Am I going to get the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic, and

    2. Am I going to die from the Chines Coronavirus Pandemic.

    Another question would be:

    What can I do to avoid getting the virus, or failing that, what can I do to avoid the worst outcomes.

    Living in NorCal these questions are important.

    I have stayed away from San Jose so maybe I will be OK.

    • 回复: @Astuteobservor II
  505. If Boris Johnson and Prince Charles die from the coronavirus, we will get better information on how dangerous the virus is to men who have plenty of access to the best health care.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  506. Hu Mi Yu 说:
    @Anonymous

    哈哈哈

    The question is not whether lockdowns work at shutting down COVID-19, but whether the resulting economic distress will cause more deaths than we save. What exactly is “essential?” Is that for some official who lives in an echo chamber in the capital to decide, or should it be left to the individual? Personally I have some health problems that American doctors are clueless about. Shut down the economy, and I may not be able to take care of myself any longer.

    People are frightened of this virus, and the voluntary restrictions were already working. We didn’t need to call out the national guard.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  507. Wow. Now doctors are saying that the TrumpCure/TrumpPills works!

    I guess his license is going to be pulled!

    • 回复: @Jonathan Mason
  508. Unz Fan 说: • 您的网站
    @Ron Unz

    Mr Unz, I’m one of your first and might I say, not very many, Patreon subscribers (chip in guys and girls). I can’t tell you how much I value the information I have over the years accrued from unz.com, both from the articles and the commenters. We are in strange and perilous times to be sure. All this hysteria DID originate in China. In fact the first toilet paper mania started in Hong Kong (a place I know well, i was working there during SARS in 2003 – there was no ‘lockdown’ then, there or anywhere, they did close the schools though). We are in unprecedented times. Many European countries have gone full ‘China’. using the same excuse China did, and many of us are now effectively living in a police state (I’m in Lisbon, Portugal and was chided for feeding the city birds today – they are pretty hungry since their food supply has effectively dried up).

    Clearly this has been an orchestrated event, much like 9/11, please can the very many highly intelligent people on this site focus on who did this, and how to punish them and make sure this NEVER happens again (I don’t really care why they did it) – they went too far this time.

    • 同意: Trinity
    • 回复: @Anon
    , @Trinity
  509. niceland 说:
    @anastasia

    I guess this is as close to the original as we get.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

    What you quoted isn’t what mr Ferguson said, or taken out of context. The U.K has taken drastic measures to limit the spread of the flue.

  510. Bill Jones 说:

    “The Coronavirus epidemic may soon produce the greatest American disaster since our Civil War over 150 years ago”

    Wilson was a bigger disaster than the Civil War.

  511. @Peripatetic Commenter

    I went full hermit almost 3 weeks ago. Moving to a small town away from all cities. I got supplies to last me 5 more months. And more on the way. Just leave the packages outside for 72 hours before taking them in. N the town I am in right now is safe enough to leave packages on the front porch.

    Oh, and I am sure I will survive. But the Chinese virus will kill you. Lol.

  512. niceland 说:
    @Ron Unz

    Incubation period seems to be ~5 days
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

    From symptoms to death varies quite a bit depending on sources. Data from the Italian gov. covering 3200 deaths:

    7.Time-lineFigure 4 shows, for COVID-19 positive deceased patients, the 中位数 times, in days, from the onset of symptoms to death (8 days), from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization (4 days) and from hospitalization to death (4 days). The time from hospitalization to death was 1 day longer in those who were transferred to intensive care than those who were not transferred (5 days vs. 4 days).

    See page 5 : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

    Not sure if it’s better to use median or mean in these estimates. Perhaps this short time in Italy is a reflection of the situation on the ground with hospitals clogged and shortages of ventilators etc.

  513. Anon[603]• 免责声明 说:
    @Unz Fan

    If this was an engineered attack, it seems China foiled it. If it was an attempt to create a phoney crisis, it seems Trump has called them on it.

    If any skullduggery is at play, the perpetrators must be feeling very panicked right now. This entire affair may work to our advantage. I’m hoping.

    • 回复: @Trinity
  514. Anonymous[278]• 免责声明 说:
    @Jonathan Mason

    Or, they could upgrade them to a newer model. We might never know.

    • 哈哈: Trinity
  515. Iris 说:
    @annamaria

    Ronald Lauder should be in jail for the murder of 3000 Americans and for the subsequent carnage it justified abroad; he was one of 4 key Israeli assets who commissioned and organised 9/11.

    Ronald Lauder – Billionaire Estée Lauder Cosmetics magnate. He was the chairman of NY Governor George Pataki’s commission on privatization. He is the key individual who lobbied for the privatization of the WTC] — but he was also instrumental in the successful privatisation of the former Stewart Air Force Base. Oddly, the flight paths of flight 175 and flight 11 converged directly over this airport.
    Lauder was active in the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations , Jewish National Fund, World Jewish Congress, American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee, Anti-Defamation League and Jewish Theological Seminary. He was elected president of the World Jewish Congress on 10 June, 2007. He founded a school for the Mossad in Herzliya, Israel called the Lauder School of Government Diplomacy and Strategy. He is arguably the key Sayan in the preparation of 9/11.

    https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it

    • 同意: Robjil
  516. glib 说:
    @PetrOldSack

    Regrettably it is possible, even likely, that the fine website I have quoted repeatedly will get shut down, or worse, the numbers “adjusted”, in the future. I saved screenshots.

  517. NPleeze 说:
    @CanSpeccy

    In neutralization assays they add the virus to a petri dish and add the test subject’s blood or what not and see if the virus can survive. How reliable is that method for testing immunity?

    • 回复: @CanSpeccy
  518. refl 说:
    @Sokrates

    We are not ment to like dictatorships, that is one thing.

    The other is, that the democracy that we have is rapidly sinking beneath the level of caricature.

    The trick about dictatorships or whatever government there may be is, if they get things done.
    China could send the country into lockdown, because 1) thy have the means, but 2) above all, because the people see their government as able to improve their lives – I know next to nothing about the country and don’t want to glorify it, but by any reason, lots of people will see things develop for them in a positive way – somehow like Germany under the Kaiser or the US post-WWII.

    This is absolutely lacking in the West today.

    In fact, this Corona-crisis has all the marks of a luxury-catastrophy, unless it turns really bad for reasons that I do not foresee: It is being declared, that we are at war, but those who die, if any, will be in their 70s or 80s. It overwhelmes health systems, that would be ok, if they had not been destroyed by the 0.1%-greed.
    I do not live in America and might not get a sight on it in my life, but I know that in mayor American cities, people live in tents on the street in ever growing numbers. Does anybody here believe, that the authorities will give a shit about what the guy in the tent has died from, when the neighbours start to complain that the tent is stinking of putrification?
    And by this I do not want to denigrate the US, because Europe is going the same way, and there are immigrants, here, too, whom one might not like and who should not be here possibly, but these are people who are accustomed to REAL problems.

    And then we spend our time here discussing the impact of the super-duper-killer virus.

    It is disgusting, when you really think of it.

    • 谢谢: Jonathan Mason
  519. Anonymous[278]• 免责声明 说:
    @Hu Mi Yu

    The question is not whether lockdowns work at shutting down COVID-19, but whether the resulting economic distress will cause more deaths than we save.

    Nope. That’s your brand-new question now, when the goalposts have moved.

    I was responding to your previous “conclusion” that the virus has a tendency to disappear on its own and end up affecting only a “small fraction of the population”. To support that claim, you’ve used the results from China, Italy and the US while completely ignoring the timing, scale and effects of their lockdowns. In that parallel universe, COVID-19 can spread unimpeded across time and space regardless of any human attempts to block it.

    As for your new question: a hard lockdown can clear the virus nationally in less than 2-3 months. Your solution is to clear a significant chunk of the US population in that time because the “markets” are experiencing trouble with re-inflating the bubble.

  520. Trinity 说:
    @Unz Fan

    I’m with you friend, everyone’s main focus should be on WHO ORCHESTRATED THIS EVENT because CLEARLY it was MANUFACTURED by man and not Mother Nature.

    I guess we can all rule out (((the media))) or “our” (((political leaders))) ever exposing the REAL CULPRIT.

  521. Trinity 说:
    @Anon

    Well IF the (((perpetrators))) are the USUAL SUSPECTS, ((( they))) will more than likely not be brought to justice.

    See 5 Dancing Shlomos and USS Liberty.

  522. Check it out. A physicist on the spread of covid 19. A lot of data and graphs.

    • 回复: @PetrOldSack
  523. @NoseytheDuke

    Thanks to the NYT I learned how a lone gunman shot JFK, that highjackers armed with boxcutters brought down several buildings in the WTC and Osama was ultimately to blame, that Saddam had WMDs, Muammar was killing his own people as was Assad…. It’s a long list and it goes on and on. When does the penny drop for you?

    So you are actually suggesting that one woman’s experience with coronaivirus is fabricated because it was printed in the Times? Even though it matches experiences in other countries?

    I’m not a fan of the Times and they are certainly biased but this thread definitely crossed into crazyland.

    You conspiracy nutters should get in a car and drive down to Queens. Take some videos of the hospitals and show us how this is all fabricated.

    Was it Jews or Freemasons that fabricated this video? Those deep state crisis actors look pretty realistic.

  524. @NPleeze

    How reliable is that method for testing immunity?

    Dunno. But the epidemiologists at Oxford seem to believe in it, and they are presumably not dumb. Also, none of the “experts” commenting at Science Media Centre on the Oxford proposal for serological testing raised any question about the validity of the tests. So probably its a valid method for the intended purpose.

  525. @John Johnson

    I was wondering when they were going to start using crisis actors in New York , like how they used “Harley Guy” on 9/11 , they have a lot of beds to fill with the victims of the “planned-demic”. I believe that the 33 year old doctor in Wuhan has already been exposed as a crisis actor or fake ,as was the original British tourist trapped on a cruise ship in Japan . How can we get into the hospitals in Queens to take some videos?

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  526. @A Texas Libertarian

    The jew banker media mob controls the gov’t. The jew mob shut down the country not the government. The Federal Reserve note is losing world reserve currency status and the jew mob is hoping to blame China so they can stay in charge. They also had to shut down the USA because they know the shortages of Chinese plastic trash will have people demanding we make our own stuff. Now the jew mobs media is already claiming it does not matter because we had to shut down here as well. The elite always get replaced after a currency collapse and the jew mob knows it. They are trying to stave off the inevitable. This kind of thing is the only reason jews have ever been ran off. They deserved it every single time and they will deserve it this time as well.

    The jew flu is a hoax and its not going to work because way to many people are aware.

    The Goyim know.

    • 巨魔: Corvinus
  527. @John Johnson

    Your video looks like your avg Friday night at all the hospitals here in LA.

  528. refl 说:
    @John Johnson

    So what is the video supposed to show? It is an overcrowded hospital room full of people who have been scared to death by induced hysteria.
    In my city, I see a still small faction of people runing around with masks and gloves, while we are having marvellous spring weather. They will get crazy if you tell them to just take of the mask and enjoy life.
    Now pass word on the media that the huge impact of the killer virus is coming and that everyone who feels sick should report to the local hospital, and these zombie creatures will follow imediately.
    This is not even malevolent. It is sensationalist on the part of the mass media, but that is just, how they do it all the time.
    Add in some people who are really sick, overrun hospitals and a staff that has been briefed to look for the monster virus in any patient who comes along, and there you have everything you need.

    You just have to understand that the overlords keep the people obedient through FEAR – fear of anything: of the Nazis, of the Commies, of the terrrists, of Muslims, Chinese whatsoever – and now at the most demented level of the great killer virus.

    It is a mean thing, because ever so many people live without a proper relation with their own body. They are afraid of that strange thing that embodies their self. And now they are being told that any feeling of dizzyness or any sign of nervousness that their body sends out can be a sign of an imminent, murderous disease.
    In normal times, somebody who feels bad would be comforted with a hug, but that is against the rules of social distancing. You could tell the person to relax, but if you aproach him, you might by accident spit the deadly virus into his face.

    Sorry, but I grew up as a West German cold war kid and I knew since childhood that it would take the evil Russkies 15 minutes to detonate a device over my had that would make me vanish in a cloud of radioactive vapor.
    It took me the larger part of my life to grasp that the whole cold war was not on the Russkies but on me.

    Now they come with this soap opera bullshit. But take note, that it will get serious. The corona thing is nil, but the people who invented it have aims end they are used to get what they want.

    • 回复: @John Johnson
  529. @Peripatetic Commenter

    Wow. Now doctors are saying that the TrumpCure/TrumpPills works!

    They might well have some benefit, I agree, but most of the people who have died of the virus have been frail and had multiple pre-existing conditions, so the malaria drug may also have hastened their demise as well as working a few miracle cures.

    The case of Amy Klobuchar’s husband is interesting, as it sounds like he was dying, based on media reports, but recovered quickly and it would be in the public interest for him to reveal his tre