Not sure if this went thru. Pardon if doubled:

I wonder when the ground invasion is going to start.

The Russophiles on Twitter are mocking Hezbollah for not intervening, but I’m reasonably confident that Hezbollah will attack with everything they have as soon as the IDF begins the ground operation. Once the IDF hits them back, it will be easy for them to rally the rest of the Lebanese people behind them. For what it’s worth (admittedly, not much) Elijah Magnier, who has sources in the very top of Hezbollah, says that Hezbollah entering into the war is already a done deal.

I think that the main reason the US carriers have been sent to Israel is as an attempt to deter Hezbollah and I just don’t think it’s going to work. And I do give Hezbollah or even the SAA a fair chance of being able to at least damage a carrier.

Putting an aircraft carrier off that coast is inviting a successful drone attack. We all saw what the Ukies could do in the Black Sea. The Chinese can use this as a test run for the Taiwan Straits.

Would be really epic if Based and Stronk Israel will proceed to not only overthrow Hamas in Gaza, but then also proceed to dislodge Hezbollah from Lebanon and also overthrow the Assad regime in Syria and replace it with a more pliable, relatively pro-Israeli and pro-Western client regime (hopefully not of the Islamist variety, though).

Just like it would be epic if an eventual Ukrainian reconquest of Crimea and Donbass will result in a color revolution in Russia and in a subsequent Ukrainian invasion of Belarus together with the Kastus Kalinouski Battalion as Ukrainian allies in this endeavor. This battalion can subsequently govern Belarus on a provisional basis under Ukrainian tutelage until new, completely free and fair elections can and will be held in Belarus.

I think Hezbollah could pull it off without Chinese help, even

you do know that the Ukie lines are collapsing in the area around Donetsk…

I’ll wait for AP’s commentary on this.

But anyway, I was fantasizing. I did not necessarily say that my fantasies were actually guaranteed to become reality, now did I?

Seems like most Ukrainians still support the war effort, though it’s more evenly divided in the south and east:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx

you do know that the Ukie lines are collapsing in the area around Donetsk…

A bit of good news finally. The ability to shell a city full of civilians from close quarters was never necessary really. Neither to fight for Ukraine’s sovereignty nor to defend democracy in Europe.

No surprise:

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/10/10/more-proof-of-false-flag-massacre-at-village-funeral-by-kiev-regime/

I figure that I might as well ask: If you could save one of the assassinated US Presidents, which one would you save? I’d be inclined to say Garfield since he was very intelligent and talented. I don’t know if Lincoln would have been able to do a better job with Reconstruction relative to the Republicans in real life, who after all were able to successfully get the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution ratified, even if they were largely unenforced for a long time afterwards. McKinley’s assassination, while extremely tragic, had a positive effect in bringing the more progressive Teddy Roosevelt to power in the US. JFK’s assassination likely made the Vietnam War possible, but if Garfield’s assassination is prevented, then maybe the butterflies from that prevent one or both World Wars, the Holocaust, decades of Communist tyranny in various countries, et cetera. Though saving Lincoln over Garfield does have an advantage in the sense that the butterfly effect would likely prevent Lenin’s conception and birth. But what if someone comparable to Lenin is nevertheless conceived and born somewhere else in Russia in a TL where Lincoln survives?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/

Interesting aspect to this whole situation. Pretty remarkable that Smotrich (whose name apparently comes from a town in Ukraine), a major supporter of the West bank settlements, apparently once said that Hamas is an asset, while the PA is a burden.

anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state needs to support strengthening Hamas. This is part of our strategy, to isolate Palestinians in Gaza from Palestinians in Judea and Samaria.

Supposedly Netanyahu said this in an internal meeting in 2019.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/benjamin-netanyahu-israel/

I wonder if that will eventually become an issue in Israeli politics once the current mood of national unity has blown over.

I think there is a resurgence of anti-Palestinianism because at this point in time Israel has not yet learned how to be multicultural. And I think Hamas is going to be part of the throes of that transformation, which must take place. Israel is not going to be the monolithic society they once were in the last 70 years. Hamas is going to be at the center of that. It’s a huge transformation for Israel to make. They are now going into a multicultural mode and Hamas will be resented because of their leading role. But without that leading role and without that transformation, Israel will not survive.

LOL.

Personally, I’d rather have a European Netanyahu than a Palestinian Barbara Lerner.

I don’t want to rain on your parade but the Gallup numbers are not good for Kiev. In the middle of war people are reluctant to be defeatist and scared to express their views. Still about half in the south-east want negotiated solution. We all understand that a deal means that Russia gets some territory and there won’t be Nato in Ukraine.

Even in the rest of Ukraine the pro-peace is 1/3. You have your “epic fantasy”, but if the war goes on as so far, Kiev will have to settle for much worse terms than the Minsk deal. By the way, all epics are fantasies and myths, that is appropriate for the stage Ukies are in. Make sure they at least rhyme the epic well…

the great trance musicfestival shani louk war of 2023

Tolerant morally superior people.

NY talk radio stations make it seem like it’s only the other side spewing such.

Reports that Ukraine are sending explosive-wired dogs towards the DPR/Russian lines.

“Explosives are attached to the animal and sent towards Russian positions. Detonation is carried out using a remote detonator.

Soldiers have already encountered dozens of such cases along the entire front sector from Donetsk to Lugansk. Therefore, unfortunately, it is impossible to attribute this to an isolated atrocity of any one Ukrainian unit.”

This was a Russian tactic during WW2, also looked at by Japan and the US, but didn’t seem to be particularly effective. Maybe with modern radio control, position monitoring (you can buy collars for pets that tell you exactly where they are) things have improved – except for the dogs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-tank_dog

Gunfire from the tanks scared away many of the dogs. They would run back to the trenches and often detonated the charge upon jumping in, killing Soviet soldiers. To prevent this, the returning dogs had to be shot, often by their controllers and this made the trainers unwilling to work with new dogs. Some went so far as to say that the army did not stop with sacrificing people to the war and went on to slaughter dogs too; those who openly criticized the program were persecuted by “special departments” (military counterintelligence).

Out of the first group of 30 dogs, only four managed to detonate their bombs near the German tanks, inflicting an unknown amount of damage. Six exploded upon returning to the Soviet trenches, killing and injuring soldiers. Three dogs were shot by German troops and taken away without attempts by the Soviets to prevent this, which provided examples of the detonation mechanism to the Germans. A captured German officer later reported that they learned of the anti-tank dog design from the dead animals, and considered the program desperate and inefficient. A German propaganda campaign sought to discredit the Red Army, saying that Soviet soldiers refuse to fight and send dogs instead.

Maybe the Ukrainian Army is in a similar desperate position now to that of the Red Army in 1941/2.

“After 1942, the use of anti-tank dogs by the Red Army rapidly declined, and training schools were redirected to producing the more needed mine-seeking and delivery dogs.”

Comment at Sailer’s:

“BLM – which, of course, was part founded by a Palestinian, has come out in full support of Hamas. Expect to see BLM quietly, but surely, wither away and slowly disappear from all public exposure, discourse and notice in the near future. Quite simply, the gatekeepers of the media will drop them like a hot potato and completely ignore them as if they do not exist. Remember, the only power BLM ever had was saturation coverage from a media agreeable with its agenda. Now its agenda is disagreeable, its oxygen will be swiftly cut off.”

I think today’s US might well use a drone attack on a carrier as a causus belli with Iran (and probably Syria too).

Iran must be careful here, unless they are prepared for US air and maybe missile strikes.

I hope they are looking after their scientists and engineers – perhaps they need research and manufacturing facilities in Russia as well as Iran.

OTOH a successful strike – a carrier sent to the bottom – would also send a message of its own.

Those dogs must be invisible too, cause despite the frontline being fully monitored by all recording drones, nobody was capable to present even a second worth of pictures, lol

Or most probably those numerous suicide dogs jumped high and ate the homewo…err…caught the flying drones as frisbees before exploding;)

Comment at Sailer’s:

“BLM – which, of course, was part founded by a Palestinian, has come out in full support of Hamas

I concur.

SJW🏳️‍🌈Muslim is a single unified side in America & Europe.

the only power BLM ever had was saturation coverage from a media agreeable with its agenda. Now its agenda is disagreeable, its oxygen will be swiftly cut off.”

Of course, those who hate America will repackage their IslamoGloboHomo in new groups. One of which will wind up as the favoured darling of the Globalist media. Fortunately, fewer and fewer people listen to these talking heads.

PEACE 😇

anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state needs to support strengthening Hamas. This is part of our strategy, to isolate Palestinians in Gaza from Palestinians in Judea and Samaria.

Supposedly Netanyahu said this in an internal meeting in 2019.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/benjamin-netanyahu-israel/

That timing makes little sense. Hamas was an Iranian proxy in 2019.

The article also contains this marvel.

the ultimate goal of the fence, which was considered to be an impenetrable barrier for terrorists, is to “prevent a connection between Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria.”

There is a great deal of land between the two preventing such a connection. Adding a fence makes little difference.

The author clearly does not grasp basic facts.

PEACE 😇

Protesters replaced an Israeli flag flying above Sheffield Town Hall with a Palestinian flag, after scaling the building during a demonstration. Footage shared on social media showed a man climbing across the roof to remove the banner before throwing it to a crowd of people below.

In a statement South Yorkshire Police said it believed two men had scaled the building on Tuesday evening. No arrests had been made, the force said, with enquiries “ongoing”.

In the footage, shared by Sheffield Online, people can be heard shouting “take it down” and cheering as the Israeli flag was lowered. Officers attempted to disperse crowds, with two suspects “fleeing the scene” during the “minor disorder”.

The decision to fly the Israeli flag was made after a request from the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities for local authorities to “consider the action”, the council said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-67075181

Ne’er waste “multipolar” opportunities to connive with Ziowahhabi British imperial abortions:

Saudi energy minister’s visit being opportunity to discuss oil market — Kremlin
https://tass.com/politics/1688391

At the moment there is nothing on the front page at black lives matter dot com.

https://blacklivesmatter.com/

I’d rank this with the hamas air force drone wing myself. Is anybody sending reporters to cover the siege of Gaza? It might be interesting to see Christine Anapor or Wolf Blitzer eating rat meat for the cameras.

Battle of the Nations
Bulgaria Spain

Xeets appear more rapidly than web page updates. BLM Los Angeles & BLM Chicago are openly SJW🏳️‍🌈Muslim for Hamas terrorism.

PEACE 😇

Zeihan suggests that Germans will “choose morals and ethics” and “pass into this good night.”

All of Peter Z’s videos are very boring.

Boston Dynamics CEO predicts there will never be any real intelligence in machines.

But do hunter/killer bots really need that much intelligence?

Most, which is true of everyone.

Not all. For ex: you never saw that video where he was before a crowd of Indians and asked why Russia doesn’t let tens or hundreds of millions of Indians settle in Siberia, to solve their demographic problems, as “they have the technology.” (Referring to Russia)

He strikes me as a con-man, so I go with “All his videos are boring” since I don’t think the content justifies the effort of figuring out what game he is playing.

‘ The New Atlas ‘ had a convincing analysis summarized as :-

1) The intelligence ‘failure’ is not believable

2) Hamas’ atrocities are intended to excite outrage

3) The outcome of which may be an attack on Iran ( as already demanded by Lindsey Graham )

4) Prior to the Hamas attack The US position in the Middle East has been failing :-
– Saudi Arabia escaping US ties and developing relations with both Iran and Israel
– Syria at peace with Saudi Arabia
– US occupation of Syria becoming precarious
All of which are ‘ improved ‘ by an Israeli slaughtering of Gaza

I think it is certainly huge damage that the US have done to the German economy, and it’s a tragedy as it’s pretty much the last productive Western economy.

Pretty weird how it seems many people in hiding were whispering while taking video. (Livestreaming, I assume)

Clearest indication that I have seen yet that some people are oversocialized.

That timing makes little sense. Hamas was an Iranian proxy in 2019.

Maybe Netanyahu’s public rhetoric about Iran can’t be taken fully at face value either. His hyping up of the Iranian threat could in part be intended to serve as a distraction from the Palestine issue. It did also enable him to conclude agreements with various Arab states after all, which were meant to bypass the Palestinians and isolate them.

Neither flag belongs on public buildings in Britain.

He isn’t playing a game. He is advertising the value of our taxes going straight to Lockheed Boeing et al. Approximately as interesting as an ad for McDonald’s or Miller beer.

If you work in marketing you should just kill yourself right now!

Not going to watch it, but prediction doesn’t look unlikely. Though AfD’s recent electoral successes have given me some hope. At least those in power can’t claim anymore that their agenda is shared by everybody.

@suddendeath

I was going to get around to replying in detail to your points from 2 threads ago but it looks like by now everyone in the Western Mainstream Media has completely moved on from Russia and Ukraine lol. The only real issue that seems to matter now is the calculus and extent to which other actors in Middle East will get involved on Hamas’s side. Looks like recent nervous excitement of Hezbollah joining in co-belligerency is false and/or premature?

At least I guessed Avdeevka as probable realistic level target of increased RF effort, even if it began bit earlier than anticipated;)

People here are still going to discuss Ukraine, so feel free to comment on it if you want to.

Looks like recent nervous excitement of Hezbollah joining in co-belligerency is false and/or premature?

Let’s hope so. I’ve seen the usual suspects in the US (Lindsay Graham, Nikki Haley, Jo Liebermann, Foundation for defense of democracies etc.) have already called for military strikes against Iran. I doubt (or at least hope) that Biden’s administration will oblige them and do something that insane, but who knows.

These two events are related, I know this won’t be popular on this site, but the decisions of Sullivan / Biden emboldened those who saw weakness and decided to strike. Now live with this, like Alex Parker likes to say.

I’m not saying one had to do something radical to defend Ukraine, but dragging the whole thing out like that inevitably led to this.

The laws of Nature have not been revoked yet – the weak will be beaten.

This might be the brightest quip on the entire internet right now.

Appearing at The Atlantic Festival on September 29, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan listed off a string of achievements in the Middle East, among them how the region is “quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

https://www.newsweek.com/jake-sullivan-brags-middle-east-quieter-israel-hamas-1833198

I wonder if he is higher on the list to be promoted to Secretary of State than Victoria Nuland.

Yes, I saw that the other day and laughed bitterly. I couldn’t figure out if he had simply failed professionally or if he’s somebody’s asset…

Now live with it. It’s going to be much, much more expensive now.

The past can’t be changed, so looking into the future, this conflict even might become the catalyst to increase Western military production way more seriously and quickly than before.

Anyway, when looking at this, there’s quite a chance that UA defense at least will be holding the lines well in worst case too:

Russian scrap graveyard, mostly known losses. In the Lyman-Kupyansk area, Russian forces are trying to advance several months now without significant success. It even had to concede captured areas near Synkivka and again lost parts of Novoselivs’ke after initially capturing it.

The idea that Hamas’ attacks have much to do with the situation in Ukraine (or that the US could somehow have prevented them by sending even more weapons to Ukraine) is fantastical. They’re primarily a consequence of developments in the Mideast itself, that is the lack of any serious prospect for a resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and Israel’s relations with Arab states and Iran.
This emerging stab in the back mythology that Ukraine just wasn’t supported enough is also getting really tiresome. Maybe it’s time for you to acknowledge that your belief in a triumphant Ukrainian victory that would restore the 1991 borders and lead to a collapse of Putin’s regime (all without triggering use of nuclear weapons) was never very realistic.

Anyway, when looking at this, there’s quite a chance that UA defense at least will be holding the lines well in worst case too:

Yes, there is a good chance that the UA lines will hold (and they will continue fighting in winter).

However, this means that RU will not be reformatted (at least not anytime soon), so it’s only a matter of time when they gather their strengths again and do the next round (possibly against us – at that point, more likely already than now, unless the military is strengthened considerably which is on the way now). We have about 3-10 years in that case to prepare.

Btw, they are moving the troops back to Leningrad region and will be bolstering that region again (of course, that doesn’t mean anything – there were always supposed to be troops there, would be stupid to leave that naked, but it shows that they are very much in the big game still).

this conflict even might become the catalyst to increase Western military production way more seriously and quickly than before.

Eh, why? You’d better hope that it will be just an Israeli punitive expedition/re-occupation of Gaza (for which Israel’s armaments should be enough, tbe issues with fighting in a densely packed urban environment like Gaza can’t be solved with more tanks and artillery after all, nor can the political fall-out). Because if this turns into a regional conflagration involving Hizbollah and Iran which really threatens Israel, you might find that Ukraine and Eastern Europe will take a back seat in America’s priorities pretty quickly.
I’m really amazed at the neoconnish sentiment I sometimes see in your and LatW’s comments, where it almost feels like one can never have enough troublespots. Most people in the West don’t have any appetite for taking on a world of enemies.

You believe Hamas was acting on its own? Who gave them the codes to the Iron Dome?

all without triggering use of nuclear weapons)

You do realize that Israel too could use nukes, if its existence is threatened?

I’m really amazed at the neoconnish sentiment I sometimes see in your and LatW’s comments, where it almost feels like one can never have enough troublespots. Most people in the West don’t have any appetite for taking on a world of enemies.

It is not something we want, it’s just something that happens.

Who gave them the codes to the Iron Dome?

No idea what you’re talking about. The way I understand it Hamas just overwhelmed the system by firing concentrated barrages of missiles at certain points. No real mystery about that.If they got any help, it will have been from Iran (and maybe funding from donors in the Arab world, I don’t know). There’s no reason to think Russia was involved in any meaningful way.
I sometimes wonder if this kind of conspirational thinking is some kind of Soviet legacy. It’s pretty obvious when someone like AnonfromTN talks about “provocations”, but the idea that someone like Sullivan could be another state’s “asset” is also pretty crazy.

You do realize that Israel too could use nukes, if its existence is threatened?

Of course I do. That’s one of the reasons why unlike many other UR commenters I don’t advocate for putting Israelis into a position of existential threat.

It just doesn’t make sense. By 2019 everyone judged Iranian Hamas to be much more problematic than Fatah. Thus, any quote from Netanyahu in that time frame would be the reverse. Trying to strengthen the official PA to reduce Iranian proxy strength.

The idea of using Hamas to weaken Fatah suggests that the quote is from a much earlier time period, likely before 2000.

PEACE 😇

Dreams in most cases are funny and unrealistic…and so are this feeble-minded poster. Color revolution in Russia? Much better odds are for that happening in the uncle Sam arena. Every installed Washington’s boy has failed or failing, Shah, Pinochet, Saakashvili, Karzai, Kasparov (picked to unseat Putin with 2% support in Russia but 98% support in NY), Zelenski.

No real mystery about that.If they got any help, it will have been from Iran

Well, Iran has been emboldened recently. That’s what I meant.

but the idea that someone like Sullivan could be another state’s “asset” is also pretty crazy.

Yea, just a measly year ago it would have seemed crazy or fantastical to me, too… the only question then, is whose asset he might be (hypothetically, if we fantasize about it a bit – why not, isn’t this the place for that?), it doesn’t have to be the Russian state.

It is also possible that he is not competent enough (because he is from the Obama tradition, when things were still somewhat stable and the lull was quite deep, and they were still cruising on America’s old power, whereas right now, we’re moving into a new paradigm, things are moving much faster, he may not have been able to catch up). It can also be a human mistake, the Middle East is a place that could’ve exploded at any time anyway. The Israeli intelligence services were actually warning about something big coming. So they did know, but something was missed somewhere in the chain of command.

I sometimes wonder if this kind of conspirational thinking is some kind of Soviet legacy.

You gonna be like Mikel or Beckow now who fall to the level of ad hominem? I wasn’t even raised by the Soviets. Not everyone in the SU was (especially as kids).

I’m really amazed at the neoconnish sentiment I sometimes see in your and LatW’s comments, where it almost feels like one can never have enough troublespots. Most people in the West don’t have any appetite for taking on a world of enemies.

I don’t have any dog in the latest Mideast bloodbath (decent factions on either side have zero power), but it’s definitely telling and predictable how quickly the Ukraine crowd has instinctively and uncritically sided with the representatives of an increasingly brutal 50+ occupation, now with millennarian overtones.

It will all depend on how successful is American Jewish politburo to galvanize American plebs support for Israel. Pendulum is swinging to wrong side for them.

Who gave them the codes to the Iron Dome?

No idea what you’re talking about. The way I understand it Hamas just overwhelmed the system by firing concentrated barrages of missiles at certain points

They did not even overwhelm the system. Iranian technology is now proven to be quite poor, unless it is Hamas operator error. Over 5,000 missiles launched and the death toll from them is about 10. That counts everyone away from the ground incursions as missile related, so it could be less than that.

Iranian Hezbollah’s attempt at a Northern missile launch campaign resulted in no casualties and has apparently been aborted. Whatever they were attempting did not pan out.

PEACE 😇

The idea that Hamas’ attacks have much to do with the situation in Ukraine (or that the US could somehow have prevented them by sending even more weapons to Ukraine) is fantastical.

Hamas is Iran’s ally and would not launch such an operation without Iranian blessing, and Iran is Russia’s ally. Hamas leadership has met in with Lavrov numerous times. And as you admit, opening up this front might cause the West to focus les on Ukraine, so it is advantageous to Russia. I’m not sure that Russia was directly involved (probably not), but I doubt that Russia didn’t know about it all.

So the idea that the Hamas attack is linked to Ukraine somewhat is not completely fantastical.

Though I think it’s main purpose is to derail peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

you do know that the Ukie lines are collapsing in the area around Donetsk…

A bit of good news finally. The ability to shell a city full of civilians from close quarters

How many of the 9 civilians killed in Donbas in 2021 were killed in Donetsk city?

How many civilians will be killed as Russia tries to retake these built up areas near Donetsk? There were still about 2,500 stubborn civilians living in Avdeevka in August this year (down from 30,000 before the war).

Good news, right?

I had stated that central and eastern ethnic Ukrainians probably hated Russia even more than Galicians do. The Gallup poll separates people of Kiev, Sumy, etc. from other central Ukrainians and adds them to the category northern Ukrainians.

And indeed, these people (from Kiev, Sumy, Chernihiv and Zhytomir) are more pro-war than Galicians. They hate Russia more than western Ukrainians do. This has been my experiencing, when talking to family in Kiev vs. family in Lviv. Understandable, given the murders and rapes perpetrated by Russian soldiers in Kiev’s suburbs.

The South and East have many ethnic Russians – they are about 25% of the population in the East and 20% in the South. This will naturally bring the numbers down significantly.

You do realize that Israel too could use nukes, if its existence is threatened?

Not going to happen, that would not improve their existence.

According to Eric Kaufmann, the natural pace of political change (I.e. people changing parties) is glacial. He puts his hope almost purely in the courts, and says that there is only a short window. Of course, I think his hope is to preserve some form of liberalism, while mitigating wokery.

Hamas is Iran’s ally and would not launch such an operation without Iranian blessing, and Iran is Russia’s ally.

I think that’s an over-simplification. iirc a few years ago there was even pretty serious friction between Hamas and Iran over their divergent positions on the civil war in Syria. Hamas is an off-shoot of the Muslim brotherhood and therefore was in favour of over-throwing the Assad regime and replacing it with a Sunni Islamist system, something obviously completely anathema to Iran (and also Russia). Apparently these differences have now been patched up, and maybe there was direct Iranian involvement in the recent Hamas attacks. But I don’t think one can see these relationships in such simple terms as if Hamas was merely an Iranian puppet. And that’s even more true of Russia’s role in the region. Israel’s stance on the Ukraine issue so far has hardly been unequivocally pro-Western btw, so why would Russia risk alienating Israel by supporting such an egregious attack? These suggestions don’t make much sense imo.

It’s not about taking sides, I’m simply pointing out certain things. The Palis are on their ancestral land, so that is their tragedy. But to pretend to not notice that there is an axis that has formed…

And, no, I don’t have to “side” with anybody, my people already made that decision for me hundreds of years ago when they decided to resist certain intruders (as a result of which I had the luck to be born).

On a related note, I wonder if the Israelis noticed the recent unprecedented wave of anti-Semitism on the Russian Z channels. That they were rabid anti-Semites was well known, but that there would be such an open and wild outburst… or have they noticed the newly baked Russian-Israeli citizens who are now bailing ship because they were expected to fight for their ancestral land.

You gonna be like Mikel or Beckow now who fall to the level of ad hominem?

Maybe I shouldn’t. But issues of Soviet legacy aside, I really think you and sudden death have a very warped view of public opinion in the West. Most people, even those who aren’t opposed in principle to supporting Ukraine, don’t share your enthusiasm to keep the war in Ukraine going for years, because nothing but a decisive victory and a “reformatting” of Russia could ever be acceptable (and those who do hold such views are mostly total shitlibs who would be horrified by your political views in particular). You should be more realistic and take that into account.

the only question then, is whose asset he might be

Exactly. That is the only remaining question at this stage. My money is on Sullivan being bought and paid for by Hezbollah.

Not going to happen, that would not improve their existence.

If they manage to get the whole Ummah going after them, it might become existential. At that point they might just go out with a blast, kind of like what Putin meant when he said that “the world is not worth living in without Russia in it”.

In this case moods depends on previous expectations, but can speak only for myself – never had such hopes of RF reformatting, so the mood is still good;)

…mugabization of putinism is the best and most desired thing that could happen. They will waste more and more resources on just containing current political status quo, economical and technological development will not be extinct, but remain sluggish, there will be more talented people such as Durov leaving. One only could wish Pugabe to stay in power till hundred years of age.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-85/#comment-3371657

Events of 2022 only strenghtened this older opinion of mine, it’s a gang of corrupt dumb incompetent aggressive sovoks in Kremlin, whom are getting increasingly senile and delusional, while wasting giant economical and military resources in stupid ways just to stay personally in power.

However, the realistic alternative is just as aggresive, but more clever newer generation (e.g. Strelkov), so such slow bleed is better in comparison imho.

Hamas is Iran’s ally and would not launch such an operation without Iranian blessing,

Iranian Hamas is an outright proxy. There is every reason to believe that Iran ordered the attack, was involved in planning, etc.

Iran is Russia’s ally.

That overstates their relationship. Russia/Iran is far from a full alliance:

• They both want to stick it to the European Empire
• Russia does not be want to antagonize the Saudis and other OPEC members
• They are competing hydrocarbon exporters
• Russia would have more strength in Syria if Iran could be moved out. Such a deal would also eject Turkish and U.S. forces, a triple win.

I doubt that Russia didn’t know about it all.

Secrets leak when spread. There is little reason to believe that Iran would unnecessarily share with Russia. Iran would see no upside potential and significant downside risk.

I think it’s main purpose is to derail peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

I concur.

Iran becomes more & more desperate over time. The nation has massive internal problems. A Saudi/Israel deal would be an epic personal defeat for sociopath Khamenei.

PEACE 😇

I really think you and sudden death have a very warped view of public opinion in the West.

Not really, I’m well acquainted with the public opinion in the West (which is quite varied). I have no illusions.

(and those who do hold such views are mostly total shitlibs who would be horrified by your political views in particular)

It won’t matter as much as you think it does. Those are just details in that context.

P.s. Aaron might have been right – mechanical thinking does have its flaws.

so why would Russia risk alienating Israel by supporting such an egregious attack?

There’s a difference between supporting vs. turning a blind eye. Though it’s possible that Hamas could have also done this attack *in part* to help Russia without any Russian knowledge of this beforehand. I think that primarily Hamas wanted to inflict a Pearl Harbor-style or 9/11-style calamity on Israel, though. Hamas’s beef with Israel is primarily personal rather than to help Russia. The helping Russia would simply be a nice side bonus for Hamas in regards to this given that Hamas appears to be very pro-Russian.

BTW, it’s unsurprising that when it looked like Assad was more vulnerable in the early 2010s, Hamas would have preferred a (fundamentalist?) Sunni regime in Syria over a secular Alawite one.

but it’s definitely telling and predictable how quickly the Ukraine crowd has instinctively and uncritically sided with the representatives of an increasingly brutal 50+ occupation, now with millennarian overtones.

I actually want Israel to both crush Hamas in Gaza and to renew peace talks with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank in order to reach a final-status agreement. I think that Israel wasted over ten years trying to ignore the Palestinian issue, regrettably.

or have they noticed the newly baked Russian-Israeli citizens who are now bailing ship because they were expected to fight for their ancestral land.

Do you mean having them move from Israel to the West en masse?

Haven’t read any of Kaufmann’s books. Got the impression that Whiteshift in part argued that things might work out ok because of intermarriage and changing definitions of “whiteness”. Now I suppose that might look vaguely plausible, if you look only at certain groups (e. g. East Asians in the US or to some extent and lower down the social scale even Mexcians, similarly Caribbean Blacks in Britain). But it looks patently absurd when you look at other groups like Pakistanis in Britain. These groups will never be “integrated” in any meaningful way into their host countries, and tbh I don’t even think it would be desirable.
About the pace of political change, probably true in general. But regarding Germany, AfD’s rise is really something completely unprecedented in the history of the federal republic. Of course there’s a good chance it will still be too little, too late. The voting behaviour of the boomer cohorts is also a huge problem, since they keep stubbornly voting for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats (otherwise zombie parties) and have such an outsized influence because there’s so many of them.

Various weaponry is the trading asset and a source of income too – more guns production might mean more butter and a way grow to industrially, e.g. India should be great potential new buyer, cause RF weaponry overall export is quite likely to collapse in near future. Also, empty shell warehouses are the best way to invite enemies these days and full warehouses make the possibility of having to take on enemies way less likely.

ofc, overall current war in ME is entirely unwanted event, but way better to think of/promote various opportunities in bad situations than just resign in utter despair;)

Hamas is Iran’s ally and would not launch such an operation without Iranian blessing, and Iran is Russia’s ally.

I think that’s an over-simplification.

Sure, but I’d think of it as an accurate summary.

Hamas is an off-shoot of the Muslim brotherhood and therefore was in favour of over-throwing the Assad regime and replacing it with a Sunni Islamist system, something obviously completely anathema to Iran (and also Russia).

They seem to be allies now, though. Iran armed and trained them, and Hezbollah (Iran’s puppet) threatened Israel on Hamas’s behalf.

The exact nature of these relationships is beyond my understanding, but it seems clear that Hamas, Iran, Assad, Hezbollah, Russia are all generally allied now. Iran supplies the lesser Middle Eastern allies with training and weapons.

But I don’t think one can see these relationships in such simple terms as if Hamas was merely an Iranian puppet.

It’s hard to know for sure. This attack probably helped Iran (in the hope that it will end the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement) and Russia (see below) more than it helped the people of Gaza, and I’m sure Hamas understood that would be the case. This suggests that they were working for someone else as much as for their own people.

And that’s even more true of Russia’s role in the region. Israel’s stance on the Ukraine issue so far has hardly been unequivocally pro-Western btw, so why would Russia risk alienating Israel by supporting such an egregious attack

Russian direct involvement would be harmful for Russia but Russia benefits from an attack in which Russia has plausible deniability. It distracts the world’s attention from Ukraine and directs resources towards Israel. Russia’s American tools among MAGA are saying to send aid that would otherwise go to Ukraine, to Israel instead. How convenient! Russia and Iran have grown rather close, and Hamas leaders have visited Moscow numerous times – it is likely that Russia knew about it, and allowed it.

Also – I have heard whispers that America was willing to look the other way if Saudi Arabia gained its own nukes to counter Iran, in exchange for Saudi Arabia to use dollars only in it soil trading. However, this would be completely contingent upon excellent Saudi-Israeli relations. So there may have been very high global stakes involved in trying to blow up those relations.

BTW lots of Russians are gloating about the attack.

From your other comment:

Most people, even those who aren’t opposed in principle to supporting Ukraine, don’t share your enthusiasm to keep the war in Ukraine going for years,

The hawks want the war to be ended quickly by giving Ukraine what it needs to end it quickly. The realists among them do not think this means until Russia collapses. Just convince Russia to pursue serious peace proposals. A quick Ukrainian victory would actually preserve more Russian men and equipment than does the current slow grind.

I don’t know how the Russian Avdiivka offensive will turn out but so far the Russians are losing huge numbers of tanks and APCs. Maybe they will manage to swamp the Ukrainian defenders, but it is no less likely that this will be a larger-scale Vuhledar failure

Got the impression that Whiteshift in part argued that things might work out ok because of intermarriage and changing definitions of “whiteness”.

that was my impression too, but I haven’t read it either, only listened to him speak twice. Last time was an interview dated Sept 6 on Kaschuta’s podcast, so before the AfD gains, but more recently than Whiteshift.

To me it seems the Russia-Iran alliance is similar to the Russia-Turkey relationship. These are marriages of convenience with very limited trust and modest shared core values. If the West had followed a reasonable course with respect to Russia the Iranian friendship would be much weaker. From a different perspective I suppose these alliances give Russia some increased credibility with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, etc.

An Israel-Saudi alliance is ridiculous on its face. I don’t know what it means, but neither side can be trusted at all.

I think Russia’s main concern in the middle East is stability. They don’t want a continuous stream of crises on her Southern border.

To me it seems the Russia-Iran alliance is similar to the Russia-Turkey relationship. These are marriages of convenience with very limited trust and modest shared core values. If the West had followed a reasonable course with respect to Russia the Iranian friendship would be much weaker.

I largely concur. Not-The-President Biden’s incompetence has pushed almost everyone away. Trump can begin to fix this in his 2nd term, but rebuilding trust is a multi administration process.

An Israel-Saudi alliance is ridiculous on its face. I don’t know what it means, but neither side can be trusted at all.

The proposed Israel-Saudi deal is basic normalization of relations, far short of an alliance.

Knowing that Iran is behind the Hamas abomination may lead to a surprise. Instead of separating Israelis and Saudis, it may bump up their desire to work together against the loathsome Khamenei.

I think Russia’s main concern in the middle East is stability. They don’t want a continuous stream of crises on her Southern border.

I agree.

Russia’s presence in Syria is blighted by the Nasrallah-shima blast that turned Lebanon into a failed state. The last thing they want is more problems. Khamenei being replace by someone less unpleasant would be a welcome change for the entire region.

PEACE 😇

At one time, when a coon was treed, and unable to leap to another tree, it was a common practice to chop the tree down. (Seems like a lot of hard work? I don’t think I’d like to do it with a chainsaw) But this ended as trees became rarer, and the price of lumber rose.

Do you mean having them move from Israel to the West en masse?

No, just those occasional travelers who bailed to Dubai, like Chubais, but I suppose he already returned to Israel (so my bad). I meant recent arrivals, like Maxim Galkin, etc. Obviously, I have nothing against them, it’s just that they are not real Israelis but opportunists.

I didn’t mean your relatives, of course.

The hawks want the war to be ended quickly by giving Ukraine what it needs to end it quickly.

I don’t find that likely given how unsuccessful Ukraine’s recent offensive has been. Ukraine will surely get more Western equipment, but utilizing that effectively for a successful combined arms offensive looks like a pretty remote prospect.
On the plus side, one can certainly hope with good reason that Russia won’t achieve any decisive breakthroughs in the near future either. But I still think that in a long war of attrition Ukraine is likely to be the weaker party.

The Ummah has never been able to entirely unite after the death of the last right guided Caliph. Immediately afterwards, the schisms started leading to infighting and political/religious motivated murders. They have also lost Islamic Spain that way, by having a period of Taifas (fractions) fighting against each other, while the Christians were getting stronger and starting their Reconquista.

Al hamdu li’Llah that it could be said that a Muslim is always another Muslim’s Munafeek (spiritual hypocrite) and/or even an outright Kafer (ungrateful disbeliever). If the Muslims manage to unite one day, we would all be doomed. But it will never happen incha’Allah.

Haven’t been encouraged by what has happened to Chrupalla. Press reporting seems to have been really unsympathetic.

My father believes he was merely stung by an insect. Probably a common view.
Not sure what to make of it myself, but I think most likely it was an attack by Antifa activists. Chrupalla is a bit silly when he talks about security services and substances like Novichock as a possibility.

On a related note, I wonder if the Israelis noticed the recent unprecedented wave of anti-Semitism on the Russian Z channels. That they were rabid anti-Semites was well known

I appreciated the subtlety of the Taiwanese more when they said there was a mainland school textbook that attempted to explain the current state of American politics by making an analogy to the Qing.

Maybe I shouldn’t.

No, you shouldn’t. Getting personal because of political differences with unknown people on the internet (as I see your interlocutor is now doing in the previous thread in a totally unprovoked way) is crass and unproductive in the long term, though sometimes difficult to resist when you are the object of such attacks.

However, is it really a personal attack when you see that there is a clear mentality gap with the people of a certain background and you just point it out or wonder where it comes from? We are all a product of our background and I don’t see how that is positive or negative. I’m sure any Basque reading my posts knows perfectly well where some of my opinions come from and where I stood politically in the 90s-early 00s (unless maybe they’re very old or very young).

Besides, that there is a big cultural difference between Eastern and Western Europeans is not exactly a revelation. We keep talking about it here with EEs usually receiving praise for their saner positions on gender and mass immigration. They should be able to accept that not everything is necessarily so positive in their societies without getting so thin skinned.

One other thing to bear in mind is that perhaps the couple of people we have here from the Baltics are not a perfect representation of their societies. Everybody thinks that Poles are diehard Russophobes but in reality I know quite a few of them personally and I’d say that, on average, they are much less concerned with what happens in Ukraine than any of us here. In fact, the couple of Poles that post here occasionally don’t seem to care much about that issue either. I do have the impression that people east of Poland are more uncompromising but what do I know?

Can you say catastrophic blunder? (1)

Zelensky Asks To Visit Israel In ‘Solidarity’ As Spotlight Shifts

As soon as the Saturday Hamas assault on the Nova Trance music festival and area Jewish settlements began, the entire world and all major international media outlets became transfixed on developments in Israel and Gaza.

Pro-Israel as well as pro-Palestinian protests and counterprotests immediately sprang up in the US and Europe. Facebook profile flags were also switched in the blink of an eye – from Ukrainian to Israeli flags… it’s almost as if the public masses in the West “forgot” about Ukraine, as the Israel-Gaza war enters day five.

It seems the pro-Ukraine cause in general, including efforts in Congress and by the Biden administration to keep the billions in aid flowing, has been sapped of its prior enthusiasm and momentum. Zelensky, having been suddenly removed from the spotlight, now appears to be seeking to link his cause with Israel’s, the cynic might say.

Axios noted, “A visit by Zelensky would boost international support for Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas in Gaza”–or perhaps it will in Zelensky’s own mind at least

The NeoConDemocrats were trying to create momentum for a joint Ukraine/Israel funding package. Chances of that working were poor, but after Zelensky’s grandstanding it is now effectively zero.

The sympathy 🇺🇦fad🇺🇦 for senseless Kiev aggression in dying. Will it will stick with 🇮🇱Jewish Palestine🇮🇱? Perhaps. Perhaps Not. Even if it doesn’t, that will just clear the way for the next flashy thing. There is no going back.

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-asks-visit-israel-solidarity-spotlight-shifts

They should be able to accept that not everything is necessarily so positive in their societies without getting so thin skinned.

I have exactly zero interest in what the likes of you or German_reader think about the EE society (which is a very broad term, since EE is huge). You simply refer to some mystical “Soviet legacy” (which btw barely touched people my age, hello, it’s been 30 years!) because you have no other arguments. When you don’t like somebody’s position, that’s what you revert to.

And don’t be such a hypocrite and pretend that this site is somehow civilized or flawless and objective – I’ve had ad hominem thrown at me literally since day one that I came here. I could’ve done it a thousand times, too, if I had wanted to. You expect respect but you don’t know how to give respect.

Have been stung through my clothes before, but only in constrained circumstances – wearing a light shirt and leaning back in a chair, pinning a wasp. (I really hate wasps – I think they are like 10x more aggresive than any other bug, including spiders.)

When/if the ground operation commences, I anticipate massive attacks launched against American Jews by American Muslims, and it will be clear to everyone that nearly 100% of American Muslims support said attacks. It will be interesting to see how this effects the internal dynamics of the Democratic party. My belief is that if Dems have to choose sides, they will side with the Jews. Actually, I’m certain of that. But I’m not sure whether or not it will lead to a full scale schism in the party.

One other thing to bear in mind is that perhaps the couple of people we have here from the Baltics are not a perfect representation of their societies.

I’m not so sure. All the statements from Baltic politicians I have noticed during this crisis have been utterly insane from my pov. Again and again proposals that would be likely to bring about a direct NATO-Russia clash…calls for no-fly-zones, for sending NATO ships as escorts to the Black Sea, for giving Ukraine weapons so it can hit (undisputed, pre-2014) RF territory, for blockading Kaliningrad etc. And again and again insistence that the only acceptable outcome is total Russian defeat and no thought of anything like a ceasefire should even be entertained.
I think in Poland there might be more diversity of opinion. Maybe also because Poland in reality is in a relatively secure position and there isn’t that much of a real prospect of a Russian invasion of Poland. Whereas it’s not as far-fetched a possibility for the Baltic states with their exposed, vulnerable position and Russian minorities (though imo still not all that likely). A lot of Balts seem to have decided that this war is their chance to be freed permanently from that oppressive threat through the destruction of Russia as a great power and therefore they want this war to continue in the hope of such an outcome, maybe even with direct NATO involvement. On some level I think it’s understandable, but if I’m honest I also think it’s an incredibly selfish, parochial and delusional attitude. And certainly not just the noble, altruistic concern for Ukraine it’s often portrayed as in Western media.

And again and again insistence that the only acceptable outcome is total Russian defeat and no thought of anything like a ceasefire should even be entertained.

It is very simple – if Russia is not made to leave, then all those human rights and just war conventions that you so like quoting, will go out the window. So kindly do not bring those up anymore when you start lecturing others again.

That’s one of the reasons why unlike many other UR commenters I don’t advocate for putting Israelis into a position of existential threat.

I do, but demographically, not militarily.

One-state solution democracy.

It doesn’t matter if it would come with all sorts of provisos (that would just help illustrate how different Israeli values are to western values) or that it would continue to be an apartheid state (which I of course favor, but which I’d count on being able to favorably contrast with the Jewish supremacist version).

The important thing is to get the ball rolling.

It’s hard to see any downsides to this.

A lot of these substances are untraceable, but I hope he got an HIV test.

I think it’s too early for that, the antibodies only form after some time iirc.
My guess would be that it wasn’t some truly dangerous substance, but rather intended as psychological intimidation (and maybe as a source of embarrassment, given that media coverage was bound to be hostile and ridicule it). But really hard to tell.

FWIW, most of the relatives that I have in Israel have actually lived there for decades. Some of them had ancestors who lived in Israel as early as the 1920s or even earlier than that. Few additional relatives of ours moved to Israel in the 1990s when my parents did. I had a Jewish great-aunt (my dad’s father’s cousin; #1) and her daughter who did so, and my mom has a non-Jewish brother who did so thanks to him marrying a rather dull half-Jewish woman (Jewish on her father’s side), but no one else did. My dad’s half-Jewish sister stayed behind in Russia together with her daughter, as did my dad’s Jewish uncle and his children and grandchildren. And I had a Jewish great-uncle (my dad’s father’s cousin; the elder brother of #1) who moved from Ukraine to Germany together with his Jewish wife in the 1990s because they figured that moving to Germany was better for them than moving to Israel is.

I do have a Jewish great-uncle (dad’s father’s cousin) who moved from Israel to the US, but he did so decades ago. If he’s still alive, as is apparently likely, he would be 90 years old right now.

From Anatoly Karlin, about George Floyd:

@MattCooperPhD @makosloff People don’t die from a knee to the neck. Floyd OD’ed on fentanyl and Chauvin was the sacrificial scapegoat.

What about Tony Timpa? His situation was similar to that of George Floyd (cops kneeling on his neck for a long time, followed by him dying), except in his case the cops involved weren’t punished because Tony Timpa was white rather than black.

Also – I have heard whispers that America was willing to look the other way if Saudi Arabia gained its own nukes to counter Iran, in exchange for Saudi Arabia to use dollars only in it soil trading.

AFAIK, Saudi Arabia wants its own civilian nuclear program, not its own nuclear weapons. At least not publicly.

I don’t even believe in human rights, you must have confused me with someone else.
Of course Russia went way too far with its invasion, a harsh reaction was necessary. But there’s also a pragmatic need to prevent this from becoming an even bigger disaster. A “perfect” solution might not be attainable at acceptable cost.
And frankly, I don’t think your position is all that moral, at least not necessarily more moral than mine. Of course you’ll say “Ukrainians want this, they want total victory so their children don’t have to fight again”, but your position essentially amounts to throwing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian men into the meat grinder, just in the hope for some perfect justice that may in the end prove to be elusive. Nor do I think your position is all that altruistic, as I wrote above from my pov Baltic bellicosity is very self-interested.

I do, but demographically, not militarily.

One-state solution democracy.

That requires indigenous Palestinian Jews to be stupid, which they are obviously not. Everyone figured out the “demographics are destiny” trap awhile ago. To further lock that in. Israel is now officially a Jewish nation.

The only possible one-state solution would append isolated, Area A enclaves in the West Bank to Jordan. And, even that seems unlikely.

PEACE 😇

I don’t even believe in human rights, you must have confused me with someone else.

Oh, really? Not sure you’re being fully honest here.

Hm, maybe I’m wrong, but I thought that on quite a few occasions you really enjoyed dishing out unasked advice to Ukrainians on how to fight properly, “according to the rules” (e.g., how to treat a much larger invader who’s killing your relatives with kid gloves) and I’ve also heard you make human rights related remarks. Not to mention yours and Mikel’s countless remarks about “Donbas civilians” clearly showing your disproportionate interests in that as opposed to the Russian atrocities that are taking place as we speak. Not a peep about those.

Not to mention the countless remarks about how you, superior W.Euros are so much better that way than E.Euros. You just called me a Sovok, because you couldn’t find a better way to lord it over me.

The problem I have with Western Euros is that they have major double standards that way vis a vis Russia – for a while it was tolerable, just for the sake of peace, but now it no longer is, it simply went too far this time.

Of course you’ll say “Ukrainians want this, they want total victory so their children don’t have to fight again”,

I never said “Ukrainians want this or that”. I have argued that they have a right to their border. If we don’t agree on this, then we need to change the lexicon, the rhetoric, that includes the State Department folks – out go all the references to “territorial integrity”, do not wear those words in vein.

Do not lie. If carving up a large state is going to be ok now, against the will of its nation, – then state it openly, call it what it is, do not beat around the bush.

but your position essentially amounts to throwing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian men into the meat grinder, just in the hope for some perfect justice that may in the end prove to be elusive.

No, my position is that the cubs must be salvaged to the maximum extent, and that an asymmetric response should be developed (there have already been good examples of this). Along with the fighting on the front lines (which of course will be costly, and this is something for the Ukrainian people, not you or I to decide or preference).

Do not make up and assign statements to me that I haven’t made.

Nor do I think your position is all that altruistic, as I wrote above from my pov Baltic bellicosity is very self-interested.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this position, given that what Russia says and does is highly amoral. I never claimed my position was altruistic. Neither is yours or Mikels.

I think we are more likely to see Muslim attacks in Europe than in the US as the latter skews heavily towards middle class (and above) Muslims who, for all their bluster know they have it good and won’t risk too much. They also are more geographically fragmented than in, say, Paris or Brussels where they are clustered together in suburbs spending all their time together thus making it more likely they will collectively organise. Of course, your border is wide open so who knows who has arrived in the last few months.

I never said “Ukrainians want this or that”.

I’m pretty sure it’s your standard argument whenever someone questions the wisdom of fighting to the bitter end and excluding all possibility of a ceasefire. But whatever.

an asymmetric response

Asymmetric response? What’s that even supposed to mean? Sending those loony Russian neo-Nazis you so admire over the border? In reality there’s no alternative to the “costly” fighting at the front if one insists on total victory (and “reformatting” Russia) as the only acceptable outcome.
Anyway, I think I’m checking out of this discussion for the time being. It’s not like it’s bringing up any new aspects anyway. Maybe we’ll know more next year.

It is very simple – if Russia is not made to leave, then all those human rights and just war conventions that you so like quoting, will go out the window.

The Russians:
    • BELIEVE they are in an existential fight for survival
    • Will ACT based on that BELIEF

You can say:
    — You do not like what they believe
    — They should not believe that.
Alas, your protestations do not impact Russian BELIEF.

The idea “if Russia is not made to leave” is thus horrifically disastrous. In their mind set, they BELIEVE using nukes is preferable to Russian extinction.

Kiev is in an unsolvable lose-lose proposition. If they lose militarily, they lose. If they win militarily, the strategic nukes fly and everybody loses. They only way out is to negotiate a deal that results in a Ukraine that Russia does not PERCEIVE as an existential threat.

I understand why you find that outcome unappealing. However, it is the “least bad” option available. Everything else is worse, possibly much much worse.

PEACE 😇

In NYC and LA the Muslims will be attacking Jews big time. I agree that it will be far worse in Western Europe though.

I didn’t mean your relatives at all (and I hope they are ok). I saw you mentioned your Slavic relatives in Tallinn (and hope they are ok, too). No, I meant very recent arrivals who bailed Russia just this or last year, yes, they were running from Putin and it is understandable. I shouldn’t judge them.

Why would Muslims attack their own Dhimmi slaves in LA?

In Hollywood, SJW🏳️‍🌈Muslim values reign supreme. The local post-Judaic apostates willingly compete for who gets to wear the “I💖Muhammad” shirt.

PEACE 😇

There are Iranian and Chabad Jews in LA, that’s who the Muslims will go after. They did so a few years ago when Israel had a flair up with Gaza

This is news to me. Do you have a relevant link?

I think in Poland there might be more diversity of opinion.

From a distance one gets the impression that even in Russia there’s more diversity of opinion than in the Baltics or Ukraine. We can even see that on this blog. But well, I don’t want to stir up a wasps nest. It’s not like there’s anything to admire in a country that starts the worst war in Europe since WW2. Besides, it may be that time of the month again… Songbird is absolutely right about wasps, by the way. What a pest in summer. Mosquitos are more insidious and annoying on the whole but at least they do it to feed themselves. Wasps do it just out of stupid and suicidal aggressiveness. I end up killing the whole colony, larvae and all, but only after they start stinging me for no reason while I’m just going about my business on the farm.

From a distance one gets the impression that even in Russia there’s more diversity of opinion than in the Baltics or Ukraine. We can even see that on this blog.

Who here is from Russia proper? Except Toly, who doesn’t even post. Which one of our posters is living there now?

Every Russian here is someone who had bailed matushka long ago and spends their life in the West trashing the West. Kind of sad actually…

What a pest in summer.

You like to dish out, learn to take it.

By the way, your Soviet as a source of conspiracy comment was not all that smart. The Soviet were probably one of the most scientistic societies out there. It was all just materialism and determinism. Free religious expression banned. Focus on STEM at the expense of social “sciences”. So you might want to find someone or something else to blame. And it was just a thought…

How many of the 9 civilians killed in Donbas in 2021 were killed in Donetsk city?

I was rather thinking of the attacks on the city after 2022, that largely appeared to be of a punitive nature. I did learn about them from Russian sources but who else would even mention attacks on civilians in Donetsk? I don’t think those videos of disgusting butterfly-like bomblets scattered around the streets and mangled civilians corpses were fake.

And what strategic importance does Avdiivka have anyway? The outcome of this war, one way or the other, is not going to be decided by more bombing of civilian areas in Donetsk city. Your people can carry on bombing Donetsk, if necessary, with the long-range weapons provided by the democracies, but it won’t be so easy if they lose Avdiivka. And those weapons are presumably less indiscriminate.

Why are these people in my country? Expel them all back to their homeland and let them fight it out.

No, I meant very recent arrivals who bailed Russia just this or last year, yes, they were running from Putin and it is understandable. I shouldn’t judge them.

I won’t judge them so long as they would be willing to fight for Israel so long as they will remain there, or at least serve in the Israeli military in a non-combat capacity.

(Personally, had we stayed in Israel, I apparently would have ended up in a non-combat role in the Israeli military once I would have turned 18–which was still a while away (July 2010) when we moved to the US in March 2001–since I have flat feet and apparently the Israelis don’t force people with flat feet to go into combat against their will.)

I was rather thinking of the attacks on the city after 2022, that largely appeared to be of a punitive nature.

Similar to the WWII-era Allied bombings of Germany and Japan (both of whom started WWII, in Europe and Asia, respectively)? Russia started the 2022 war; had it simply annexed the Donbass without attacking the rest of Ukraine, Ukraine would not have shelled the Donbass in 2022-2023, now would it?

but your position essentially amounts to throwing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian men into the meat grinder, just in the hope for some perfect justice that may in the end prove to be elusive.

I have a question for you: Is Russia actually interested in a ceasefire right now? And what odds would you place on Russia eventually attacking Ukraine again (2020 Nagorno-Karabakh-style) if a ceasefire is purely hypothetically indeed reached right now?

no but I do remember it happening. It wasn’t like pogroms or anything and AFAIK, nobody got hurt. Actually, the only reason I even heard about it was because there is a left wing message board that I read where they were debating whether or not the attacks were justified

edit: it was during the crisis in 2021, I’m trying to see if I can at least find the thread where I read about it

here is what I was talking about:

I guess it was just one incident. I thought there were attacks against Jews in NYC, too but I guess not.

At one time, when a coon was treed, and unable to leap to another tree, it was a common practice to chop the tree down. (Seems like a lot of hard work? I don’t think I’d like to do it with a chainsaw.)

Yes, but sometimes the tables are turned and it’s the coon dog that gets treed by the coon, permanently, as what apparently happened to this mummified hound dog on display at a Georgia forestry museum, and is known affectionately to visitors as ‘Stuckie’.

No telling how many other disappeared coon dogs are out there which may have met this very same horrible fate at the hands of raccoons, and they just don’t know about them yet.

Poor dumb dog. 🙁 Smart racoon. 🙂

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dog-found-mummified-inside-tree/

there’s more diversity of opinion than in the Baltics or Ukraine. We can even see that on this blog.

We don’t have any Ukrainians actually living in Ukraine (or who’ve spent more time there than an extended touristic stay) as commenters here. iirc the only one we ever had was that Svidomy guy, and while he was understandably anti-Russian, he was also pretty scornful of Mr. Hack’s and AP’s comments. I don’t buy LatW’s frequent claim that Ukrainians are unanimous in wanting to fight on until total victory, at any price. There are polls (XYZ linked to one in the other thread iirc) showing that especially in southern and eastern Ukraine (where the war is actually being fought) people are much more ambivalent, despite the social expectations in wartime. Of course there are also conflicting tendencies, it’s understandable that many Ukrainians want a clean end to the war, not just some frozen conflict with Russia still in control of Ukrainian territory or are afraid that all the sacrifice could have been in vain.
It’s easy for the Balts to be militant from a distance.

@XYZ:

Is Russia actually interested in a ceasefire right now?

I suppose not, at acceptable conditions. I admit that’s the major problem with my own position, how to get Russia to agree at least to a ceasefire that leaves most of Ukraine sovereign in all essentials. But I don’t understand this optimism one still encounters here, given the non-results so far of Ukraine’s offensive.

Origins of Hamas/Israeli Conflict w/ Scott Ritter

There’s a difference between supporting vs. turning a blind eye. Though it’s possible that Hamas could have also done this attack *in part* to help Russia without any Russian knowledge of this beforehand. I think that primarily Hamas wanted to inflict a Pearl Harbor-style or 9/11-style calamity on Israel, though. Hamas’s beef with Israel is primarily personal rather than to help Russia. The helping Russia would simply be a nice side bonus for Hamas in regards to this given that Hamas appears to be very pro-Russian.

BTW, it’s unsurprising that when it looked like Assad was more vulnerable in the early 2010s, Hamas would have preferred a (fundamentalist?) Sunni regime in Syria over a secular Alawite one.

If anything, the US and Israel have the greater record of propping Sunni extremists. Hamas opposed the Syrian government in 2012.

Supporting Sunni extremists in Syria was and is a mistake, IMHO.

https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d

I won’t judge them so long as they would be willing to fight for Israel so long as they will remain there, or at least serve in the Israeli military in a non-combat capacity.

Yea, I wasn’t talking about normal Jews who just want to go to Israel, but some people who were looking where to crash after Putin went really crazy.

Israel has mobilized 300K people in a day! That’s really impressive.

Maybe not that surprising. Here’s a real gem from last April:
https://sofiaglobe.com/2023/04/28/israel-mulls-supporting-south-azerbaijans-independence-from-iran-ukraine-should-pay-attention/
I suppose one could see such unfiltered calculations as charming in a certain way, at least there’s no pretense that some higher principle is involved.

And by the same author:
https://sofiaglobe.com/2023/06/09/why-is-the-west-not-sanctioning-putins-key-allies-in-the-caucasus/

More from Mr Chalenko:

Looking for false analogies is the sina quo non of all ideologues. I am surprised they didn’t work in Hitler or Kim Il Chun.

It is obvious that the Soviet internal administrative borders were imperfect. It required a level of toleration that the Ukies turned out not to be capable of. And a few others.

Considering potential mass pogroming done tommorow and all weekend by Muslims in EU, hopefully this kind of position will be pushed further by mainstream West too:

Hamas’ attack against Israel being celebrated on the streets of Berlin indicates that Germany has let too many foreigners into the country, according to former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview with Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner for Germany’s Welt TV. Axel Springer is POLITICO’s parent company.

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel.
………………
Hamas’ “open act of aggression” must be met with “some penalty,” Kissinger said — while warning about the potential for dangerous escalation in the region.

“The Middle East conflict has the danger of escalating and bringing in other Arab countries under the pressure of their public opinion,” Kissinger warned, while pointing to the lessons learned from the 1973 Yom Kippur War, during which an Arab coalition led by Egypt and Syria attacked Israel.

The real goal of Hamas and its supporters “can only be to mobilize the Arab world against Israel and to get off the track of peaceful negotiations,” Kissinger said.

It is also “possible” that Israel could take action against Iran, if it considers Tehran to have had a hand in perpetrating the attack, the former top diplomat added.

More broadly, Kissinger said, Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine coupled with Hamas’ attack on Israel represent a “fundamental attack on the international system.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/henry-kissinger-germany-let-in-way-too-many-foreigners/

…how to get Russia to agree at least to a ceasefire that leaves most of Ukraine sovereign in all essentials

It has to be more specific:
– Is Kiev in Nato or not?
– Do Russians in Ukraine have the basic human rights or not?

Kiev defines essential sovereignty as being in Nato and banning the Russian language in schools-offices. That translates into a complete Russian defeat. Russia is winning, so why would they negotiate their own surrender?

Kremlin believes that it was tricked with the recent ceasefires, e.g. by Merkel. The minimum is some sort of peace with Russia not bordering any new CE country. All ethnicities also should have European 2023-standard human rights. It may be too late.

We don’t have any Ukrainians actually living in Ukraine (or who’ve spent more time there than an extended touristic stay) as commenters here. iirc the only one we ever had was that Svidomy guy, and while he was understandably anti-Russian, he was also pretty scornful of Mr. Hack’s and AP’s comments

Yes, he thought that we weren’t anti-Russian enough. And indeed, most people I speak to in Ukraine are far more anti-Russian than I am. Can’t say I blame them.

Supporting Sunni extremists in Syria was and is a mistake, IMHO.

I agree. It was a complete screw up by Obama. Something on the order of 90% of the U.S. material supplied to the supposed rebels flowed immediately to ISIS.

Again, this points to Trump’s 1st term successes in foreign policy. He repudiated Obama’s “regime change” goal. At this point, the small U.S. presence in Syria remains primarily to counter the threat posed by Iran.

Hamas appears to be very pro-Russian.

Both Palestinian Jews and Hamas like Russians. There is a great deal of trade between Israel and Russia. Geopolitics is not always 2 sided.

PEACE 😇

“A visit by Zelensky would boost international support for Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas in Gaza”–or perhaps it will in Zelensky’s own mind at least

What, “anti-semite” Zelensky doing or even thinking about something to support Israel? Amazing.

The sympathy 🇺🇦fad🇺🇦 for senseless Kiev aggression in dying.

For the umpteenth time now, it’s Ukraine that is fighting a defensive war within its own country against the aggression of its neighboring Russian state. Poor kremlinstoogeA123, just can’t seem to get past this huge mental barrier. Hopefully, this cartoon will help clarify things for him:

Here’s the talented Ukrainian cartoonist (he’s the Kyiv Post’s main cartoonist) Serhiy Kolyada’s take on the latest events within Israel and the world. He seems to think that old boy Putler has his hand in this situation?:
‘Evil Twister’ Being Played Out According to Putin’s Rules.”

It has to be more specific:
– Is Kiev in Nato or not?
– Do Russians in Ukraine have the basic human rights or not?

Depends on how one defines basic human rights. Having state secondary schools in whatever language one wants is not a “basic human right.”

The only languages in state schools in the USA and France are English and French, respectively.

Language policies follow voter preferences.

Kiev defines essential sovereignty as being in Nato and banning the Russian language in schools-offices

Sovereignty means that Ukrainian voters rather then officials from foreign countries determine government policies.

And of course nobody is banning Russian from schools. Secondary schools are conducted in Ukrainian as the primary language. They are banning all-Russian state secondary schools, in accordance with the wishes of the majority of the Ukrainian people.

Russia is winning, so why would they negotiate their own surrender

Russia has failed in its stated goals of regime change and demilitarization, but has taken and holds 8% of Ukrainian territory that it didn’t have in 2022. Front is stable so the question is if it wants ongoing slaughter of its soldiers demilitarization of its own army, or peace.

Btw, Russia seems to have lost a significant percentage of equipment in its so-far failed 2 day Avdiivka offensive as Ukraine’s losses in its very slow/stalled southern offensive:

True, he was very anti-Russian, understandably so. But iirc he also thought you and Mr. Hack were naive about lots of things. I didn’t get the impression he shared the optimism about Ukraine’s eventual victory that is so prevalent here.

The real goal of Hamas and its supporters “can only be to mobilize the Arab world against Israel and to get off the track of peaceful negotiations,” Kissinger said.

It is also “possible” that Israel could take action against Iran, if it considers Tehran to have had a hand in perpetrating the attack, the former top diplomat added.

Taking action against sociopath Khamenei would be logical and justified. There is a catch though. Netanyahu still wants to normalize relations with the MbS.

It is unlikely Netanyahu will order anything that might result in Iran attacking Saudi Arabia. For example, arranging for the Iranian hydrocarbon industry to have fiery and explosive problems is well within Israel capabilities. How would Khamenei rage and lash out afterwords?

More broadly, Kissinger said, Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine coupled with Hamas’ attack on Israel represent a “fundamental attack on the international system.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/henry-kissinger-germany-let-in-way-too-many-foreigners/

The last line should have read Kiev’s ongoing aggression against Russia, but you can’t have everything.

The UN/NWO has been making things worse for ages. UNRWA is a prime example of a slow moving failure over decades. Too many nations, including China, use WTO/GATT “rules base order” to abuse American workers.

IMHO it is time for the current formulation of “international order” to expire.

PEACE 😇

Demands like Ukraine re-entering Russian-dominated economic associations and foregoing any association with the EU or Ukrainian de-militarization are total non-starters, Russia would have to drop them. And obviously Ukraine won’t accept its territorial losses, so there would only be a ceasefire anyway, no lasting peace settlement. But imo one should at least explore the possibility of that (maybe that’s already going on behind the scenes, who knows).
I think you’re sometimes too focused on language rights etc. These issues aren’t unimportant, but they’re not the decisive reason why Russia went to war. And by annexing so much Russian-speaking territory, Russia has severely weakened the case for special status of the Russian language in Ukraine.

Mr. Svidomy was critical of a lot of people, and although his youth and exuberance were refreshing, his boorish manner sort of fell apart, when he admitted that he wouldn’t actually be taking part in any military actions, in deference to his mother’s wishes of keeping him out of harm’s way. He disappeared from here about that time. I do hope that he’s doing okay, whatever he ended up doing.

Nothing about Nato? Have you given up on that?

They are banning all-Russian state secondary schools, in accordance with the wishes of the majority of the Ukrainian people.

Majority of voters can’t dictate to minority what language to use. There are minorities that are a fraction of Russians in Ukraine – they have full language rights and often an autonomy. Ukraine is a multi-national country and all people living there have same rights: Ukies, Russians, Magyars, Tatars, Poles…

If you believe that a majority can deny basic human rights to a minority in you are very misguided. Can majority ban anything? Language, religion? Where do you live? We are not in 1939.

Russia has failed in its stated goals…

They have 20% of Ukraine and look unbeatable. Their economy is growing faster than EU and at the same rate as US (NY Times 10/11). Ukraine’s infrastructure is being destroyed and it lost a large portion of its population. Russia didn’t mind Zelensky since they negotiated with him in the spring of 2022.

Demilitarization? That will be assessed when the war ends. Your “Avdiivka” is just the last in your long list of wishful victories, Bakhmut, Azov offensive…we don’t really know what and at what cost happens – everyone lies in a war. What matters is who is winning.

…Demands like Ukraine re-entering Russian-dominated economic associations and foregoing any association with the EU or Ukrainian de-militarization are total non-starters

I am not aware of any Russian demand that Ukraine forego association with EU. They simply said – correctly in 2013 – that Ukraine can’t be in two free-trade blocks simultaneously. It is about Nato and not EU – when people exchange them they are manipulating. Russia clearly objects to Nato and not to EU.

…language rights etc. These issues aren’t unimportant, but they’re not the decisive reason why Russia went to war.

Language rights – in schools, offices – are a shorthand for national rights. It is understood that way everywhere in Europe. If Belgium bans Flemish in schools, Italy bans German in South Tirol, Finland bans Swedish, Spain bans Catalan or Basque, Romania bans Hungarian – there would be an immediate uproar in Europe. That is the way minorities are suppressed. It was one of two reasons why Russia went to war – it will have to be addressed.

I am not aware of any Russian demand that Ukraine forego association with EU.

There was some statement to that effect a few months ago iirc. I don’t know what the current Russian position is, one would have to find out in talks.
And while Putin said in 2013/14 that he wasn’t necessarily opposed to Ukraine entering into association with the EU, in reality Russia did try with a lot of tricks (including arguably some pretty dirty ones) to prevent it. To some extent that may have been because of the (unfortunate) de facto link between EU and NATO. But anyway, such demands couldn’t be accepted by any Ukrainian government.
Regarding national rights, that’s not really an issue to be settled in a ceasefire where only some minimum consensus would be established to stop hostilities. And there’s no prospect for anything more than a ceasefire for the foreseeable future.

think it’s too early for that, the antibodies only form after some time iirc.

Meant to be a joke. I could not resist after Bashi said that Cirillo was pozzed (which I haven’t verified) but found to be quite remarkable, as he was supposedly married to a woman for a while and had a kid or two, and antiretrovirals have been around for a while.

It is about Nato and not EU – when people exchange them they are manipulating. Russia clearly objects to Nato and not to EU.

I concur. It is possible that Russia actually wants Ukraine to join the EU. It would create massive problems for them. (1)

The European Union has “no vision” for farming and urgently needs to reform its massive subsidy scheme — the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) — to prepare for the accession of farming powerhouse Ukraine.

That was the tough message from former agriculture commissioner and European lawmaker Dacian Cioloș at POLITICO’s Future of Food & Farming Summit on Thursday, taking place against the backdrop of a fight between Kyiv and the bloc’s eastern member countries over a glut of Ukrainian grain.
…
With the Commission’s mandate due to end next year, the next proposal to overhaul the CAP — which accounts for a third of the EU budget — is not due to land until the second half of 2025. That’s too late, said Cioloș, who was farm commissioner from 2010-14, has been prime minister of Romania, and represents the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament.

Brussels has held out the long-term prospect of EU membership as a strategic anchor to help Ukraine prevail in its war of resistance against Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022.

But, with a quarter of Europe’s farmland — and some of the most fertile soil in the world — Ukraine has the potential to wreck the CAP, under which subsidies are linked to farm size.

Russia has not argued for full demilitarization of Ukraine. However, to prevent a Round 2, there must be enforceable provisions that will keep Kiev from threatening Russian citizens. This would include:

• No NATO Ever
• Wide DMZ
• Limits (not full demilitarization) of conventional arms

The perfidy of falsely agreeing to the Minsk deal for cover while arming up breached the basics of civilized dealings. Ultimately, Ukraine must accept less than Minsk to avoid rewarding misbehaviour.

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-farm-reform-risk-cap-common-agricultural-policy-dacian-ciolos-ukraine-accession/

And by annexing so much Russian-speaking territory, Russia has severely weakened the case for special status of the Russian language in Ukraine.

Indeed. It would be different in the 1991 borders, but within the post-2014 borders the majority of Russian speakers agree with Ukrainian state language policy.

Russia is trying to force a Russian language policy in Ukraine, that most Ukrainian Russophones themselves reject.

But I do strongly suspect that there are a lot of gays in Antifa, etc. and generally in the open borders crowd.

Tim Dillon has some of his best rants on this topic.

This is probably not really wholly the case, but it appeals to my imagination:

The Minsk deal was a sham agreement, never verified by either party, breached immediately by Russian militants supported by Russia itsself. Vitali Potnikov had this to say about it (and much more):

No sooner had the members of the contact group in Minsk agreed on the “Easter” truce in the Donbas, when the first news appeared about its breach by the so-called “militants.” In fact, nothing else could have been expected. Russia is not interested in a truce in the Donbas. Constant shelling and the death of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians is an important part of Putin’s plan for the destabilization of Ukraine.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2017/04/05/why-russia-does-not-want-peace-in-the-donbas/uote>

Nothing about Nato? Have you given up on that?

NATO wasn’t in the table before but it is, though in both cases it’s unlikely. Chance ms of eventual NATO membership have gone up from 5% to 20%. But most likely in either case Ukraine would not be in NATO.

Majority of voters can’t dictate to minority what language to use

Sure they can dictate in what language schools are conducted. There are about a million Ukrainian-Americans in the USA but no state schools in the Ukrainian language. Does that mean that my people are persecuted and my language banned? No Spanish schools either and there are tens of millions of those.

How many schools in Slovakia use Roma as the primary language of instruction btw?

Ukraine is a multi-national country and all people living there have same rights: Ukies, Russians, Magyars, Tatars, Poles

Yes, they have the same rights to vote, and to go to the Ukrainian secondary schools.

If you believe that a majority can deny basic human rights to a minority in you are very misguided. Can majority ban anything? Language, religion?

Schooling is a basic right but schooling in whatever language one wants is not.

And not having schools in various languages is not “banning” them. The Ukrainian or Spanish languages are not banned in the USA because the USA uses English as the primary language of instruction in state schools. Try to use the word banning honestly.

In Quebec anyone not of English heritage (such as Russian immigrant kids) must attend a French rather than English school. Does that mean English is banned?

Where do you live?

A place where all state schools are in the English language despite some high percentage of kids not being native English-speakers. In accordance with the will of the majority of voters here.

Are you so Sovietized that you do not understand what democracy is?

Russia has failed in its stated goals…

They have 20% of Ukraine and look unbeatable

They started with 10% and hoped to install a friendly government in Kiev (under Medvedchuk?). They once grabbed and additional 15% but have been pushed back to holding an additional 8%. They have lost control over the western Black Sea (Ukraine is shipping again, with no grain deal but due to Russian military losses).

They wanted Ukraine to be demilitarized but got a Ukraine that in limited ways is better armed than the Russians are. The largest and best equipped Ukrainian military since after independence.

They wanted Ukraine to be “deNazified” (their term for purged of nationalism) but got a Ukraine that is more patriotic and anti-Russian than thought possible.

They failed at their goals.

But gained 8% more of Ukraine as a consolation prize.

Russia didn’t mind Zelensky since they negotiated with him in the spring of 2022.

A consequence of Russia having been defeated in Kiev earlier in 2022. That was an acknowledgment by Russia that it failed at the first of its goals.

If Belgium bans Flemish in schools

If the majority of Flemish-speakers agreed to shut down Flemish-speaking schools in Belgium, the Netherlands would not bomb Belgium in response.

Language rights – in schools, offices – are a shorthand for national rights.

What offices? There is no obligation whatsoever for private offices to use a minority language. I already told you once why this is problematic – you expect our kids to learn Russian just so that the Russians can communicate in their minority language. That is a huge entitlement and ridiculous.

Many Ukrainians are bilingual and that worked ok, now Russia and people like you who are their supporters have completely ruined that. Live with it.

This is all moot anyway after what the Russians have done, they are murdering and threatening to blow up nukes. It’s way, way past any kind of discussion about some mystical “language rights”. They’ll be phased out from many places now. And they deserve that because of their monstrous behavior and attitudes. They needed to learn to live in peace and civility with their neighbors instead of acting all entitled. Any nationality on the planet would do that to the nationality that came into their home and murdered their kids. If Magyars or Germans did that to you, you’d tell them to take a hike. And rightly so!

You’re a hypocrite, you insist on applying rights to Russians but not the right to life for Ukrainians. Which makes the whole appeal absurd.

…there’s no prospect for anything more than a ceasefire for the foreseeable future.

One side could also win the war and end it. There is also non-zero chance that it will escalate out of control and none of the issues will matter..

Ukraine in EU….Russia did try with a lot of tricks (some pretty dirty ones) to prevent it.

Everyone does tricks, so what? Brussels and Washington did tricks on Russia, on Maidan, etc…Countries are not angels, they promote their self-interest. Russia penalized Ukraine by limiting trade and transport – is that dirty? Look at what EU-US have been doing with sanctions and tell us what is more dirty. It is part of the game.

In Central Europe we understood that no country will be allowed to join EU without joining Nato. It was a prerequisite. Would EU make an exception for Kiev? Would Washington allow it?

Regarding national rights, that’s not really an issue to be settled in a ceasefire

And how would it be settled? In 2014-15 Russia and Donbas agreed to ceasefire after Kiev committed to give Russians national rights. Kiev broke its promise, we can’t walk away from that precedent. Or Kiev can try to defeat Russia militarily. You can’t square a circle.

The bottom line is that thousands of Ukies are dying for the right to join Nato and to ban the Russian schools in Ukraine. All else is an attempt to deceive because it is so preposterously stupid. Russia wasn’t heading to Berlin or Bretagne – they have been very clear about what they want.

I like to think that the colonists brought hunting dogs with them from Europe, and that they were slowly selected to physically adapt to hunting in America’s more bountiful woodlands.

Well, generally there are some subtle differences between the American and European breeds.

…The perfidy of falsely agreeing to the Minsk deal for cover while arming up

It was a short-term gain for what may turn out a catastrophic loss in the long run. It is rather incredible that smart politicians like Merkel-Hollande went along with it. Unless of course they don’t mind the damage to Ukraine as long as Russia also suffers.

Russia actually wants Ukraine to join the EU. It would create massive problems for them.

EU has become quite dysfunctional and UK leaving has not been fully appreciated yet – one more blow could put it out of its misery. Ukraine in EU would have very negative financial consequences, and it would overnight impoverish average EU citizen by 5-10%. Sure, Russia might enjoy the schadenfreude…it would be like Turkey or Morocco joining – that was also on the agenda in the past. EU is stupid, but probably not that stupid – read what the Dutch PM said about Ukraine in EU last week, he was chosen to send the real message to Kiev.

…private offices

What? I was obviously referring to the government offices – minorities in EU have the right to do official work in their own language. Private business can do what they want.

Many Ukrainians are bilingual and that worked ok, now Russia and people like you who are their supporters have completely ruined that

Almost all Ukies we see in Central Europe prefer Russian – they talk to each other in Russian. Who ruined it was post-Maidan nationalist fanatics who banned Russian in schools and gment offices – that’s something they will have to live with it. It was a catastrophic mistake.

This is all moot anyway…

I agree. It is a blood sport now. The winner will make the rules, and vae victis…You are confident that Kiev will win, but what if they don’t? Are you also willing to live with those consequences? What if the winner phases out the loser and it is not to your liking? Don’t bluff and threaten until you win – it can come back to haunt you.

Ukraine in EU would have very negative financial consequences, and it would overnight impoverish average EU citizen by 5-10%. Sure, Russia might enjoy the schadenfreude…it would be like Turkey or Morocco joining

A ridiculous comparison. There are 85 million Turks, 37 million Moroccans and 30-35 million Ukrainians. Even under wartime conditions Ukraine has 20% higher GDP than Morocco. Ukrainians are European Christians, Turks and Moroccans are not

It would just be like admitting a poor Poland from the 90s.

And how would it be settled?

There probably won’t be a real settlement for a long time. That’s depressing, but the two sides are just too far apart in their positions. Maybe it would have been possible in the first months after February 2022. But too much has happened since then, most notably the annexations of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia which no Ukrainian government can just accept. The issue has well moved beyond NATO membership and language rights (if it ever was just about that).
Of course it’s possible that one side will just win and be able to dictate terms. imo that would most likely be Russia, since in a long war of attrition Ukraine is likely to be in the weaker position. There would probably be calls for a direct Western intervention in such a scenario, but presumably NATO would hold back out of fear of triggering a nuclear war. But impossible to know for certain what will happen.

I don’t know why Ukraine putting the Ukrainian language first is such a problem. In the Irish Republic and also in Wales, which isn’t even an independent country, their own languages are given priority in being displayed on road signs, etc, and it’s pretty much impossible to get government jobs in Ireland or Wales without a proficiency qualification in Irish Gaelic or Welsh respectively, and Irish and Welsh are much smaller minority languages than Ukrainian is too.

The end result is that monolingual Anglophone Irish and Welsh people (ie a very large percentage if not the majority) are effectively discriminated against in favour of a small elite of bilingual people. Yet very few people in the ROI or Wales seem to consider this a real problem, the prevailing mentality is that these are the native languages of the ROI and Wales if you can’t be bothered to learn Gaelic or Welsh then that’s your own fault.

Russian nationalists using Ukrainian being put first as an excuse for war and mass murder seems utterly ridiculous to me, psychopathic even.

Best border collies are Irish.

Curtis Yarvin on the Ukrainian language is his best material. The analog is to Ebonics. All Kiev elite human capital in Kiev are Russian first speakers and many stutter saying, “Have a nice day” in that other language which is native only to peasants.

According to him.

…The perfidy of falsely agreeing to the Minsk deal for cover while arming up

It was a short-term gain for what may turn out a catastrophic loss in the long run. It is rather incredible that smart politicians like Merkel-Hollande went along with it. Unless of course they don’t mind the damage to Ukraine as long as Russia also suffers.

It is unclear if they even care about Russian suffering. Screwing up Ukraine is a huge win for EU Globalism:

• Created a rift within the Euroskeptic Visegrád 4 (Poland vs. Hungary)
• Provided cover for massive flows of MENA and Sub-Saharan illegals

This explains why Europe wants to “keep fighting” while at the same time they have no strategy to “win”. Chaos serves the EU Globalist agenda.

EU has become quite dysfunctional and UK leaving has not been fully appreciated yet – one more blow could put it out of its misery.

Dysfunction is about the kindest thing that can be said about the EU. A sudden end to would create huge problems for individuals, so that should be discouraged. I keep hoping that enough countries will realize that union has failed as a concept. Then everyone could arrange for the EU to disband in an orderly manner.

PEACE 😇

I have only played around a bit with dogs scenting abilities. Once, when I arrived at someplace in the country and knew that two friendly dogs would soon come to visit me, I went down this trail and then double-backed, and climbed a tree in the middle of the path.

They were fooled, and I watched them go by and chuckled silently. But they weren’t hunting dogs.

The French were big on breeding dogs at one time. They may still be

I should like to see dog breeding become a nationalist project among Europeans.

Many of the great breeds are plagued with health problems or short lives. Dogs are such loyal companions and useful animals that I think it is a scandal that we spend giant sums on Somalis and gays, and it seems to me very little on improving dogs.

Your usual logic-free rant – nobody cares what they do in US, different society with no “ethnic nationality“. It is about Europe, you know nothing about how national states, languages, ethnic minorities work in Europe.

If the majority of Flemish-speakers agreed to shut down Flemish-speaking schools in Belgium, the Netherlands would not bomb Belgium in response.

It was the Ukies post-Maidan who bombed their own citizens in Donbas, killing 3k civilians. As always you have it upside down.

But even a majority of your own nation can’t deprive the minority that wants to preserve its identity from using their native language – the Russian majority in Donbas wanted to keep the Russian language. If the Flemish schools were banned there would be an uprising, possibly a civil war. If Madrid banned Catalan language in schools-offices – you would get an open rebellion. You seem too stupid to understand Europe.

Russia didn’t mind Zelensky since they negotiated with him in the spring of 2022.
A consequence of Russia having been defeated in Kiev earlier in 2022.

It was reverse: Russia was negotiating with Zelensky in March and then withdrew from Kiev – they say it was a good-will gesture – when Zelko agreed to a deal. Of course, he betrayed again. Does it make you feel better when you lie about it? What difference does it make? You can’t achieve victory by pretending that you are winning – that is the height of desperate stupidity.

Your other stuff is one-sided drivel, calm down. You are not winning the war. That makes all of this rather pointless. Vae victis works both ways.

Israeli mass media is decidedly anti-Russian. In the most recent video I posted here, Ritter said that the Israeli government was of the impression that Hamas became more involved with governance over launching the kind of strike that occurred. In addition, West Jerusalem thought the Gaza situation showed gradual improvement, in conjunction with Arab states willing to support agendas like having Middle East talks without the Palestinians.

As for Trump, he bought into the Assad is an animal mantra and allowed his neocon Syria point man Jeffrey play him.

https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+syria+jeffrey&sca_esv=572931913&source=hp&ei=IS8oZbXsIJzrptQPo_Oj8AQ&iflsig=AO6bgOgAAAAAZSg9MSzcN-Kln9KBgmZTk-HF9JHti6OF&ved=0ahUKEwj1gKbJhvGBAxWctYkEHaP5CE4Q4dUDCBA&oq=trump+syria+jeffrey&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IhN0cnVtcCBzeXJpYSBqZWZmcmV5SONaUABYuE5wAHgAkAEAmAGJAaAB5QyqAQQxNy4zuAEMyAEA-AEBwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAhEQLhiABBixAxiDARjHARjRA8ICCxAuGIAEGLEDGIMBwgILEC4YigUYsQMYgwHCAg4QLhiABBixAxjHARjRA8ICBRAAGIAEwgIREC4YigUYsQMYgwEYxwEY0QPCAgsQABiKBRixAxiDAcICCxAuGIAEGMcBGK8BwgIIEC4YgAQYsQPCAgsQLhivARjHARiABMICCxAAGIAEGLEDGMkDwgIOEC4YgAQYkgMYxwEYrwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICChAAGIAEGMkDGArCAggQABiKBRiSAw&sclient=gws-wiz

Yugo 1999 emphasized how might still makes right. Project Ukraine has failed. It’s only a matter of time and specs like the final boundary. No NATO on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR with Russia at the bare minimum having the territory it now has.

More details on how Iranian Hamas wrecked the Gaza water supply system: (1)

 

The European Union (EU) spent $100 million of taxpayer funds on building over 30 miles of water pipelines for Palestinians in Gaza, despite Hamas having bragged about their ability to turn the piping materials into makeshift rockets online.

The EU participated in a number of initiatives between 2015 and 2022 to ensure Palestinians have fresh water, including working alongside UNICEF to install an 11-mile pipeline to Khan Yunus and Raha in southern Gaza.

Footage emerged, in 2021, of Hamas fighters digging up the pipes and fashioning them into rockets to launch over the border into Israel. Despite this, the EU bankrolled another 10 miles of pipelines in 2022.

The main missile used by Hamas – an internationally recognized “terrorist organization” – is the Qassam rocket, which is assembled using industrial piping along with chemicals and explosives.

“There must be prudent security assessments before giving taxpayers’ money to Palestinian organizations for infrastructure that can be utilized for military ends by Hamas terrorists,” argued Frank Furedi, executive director of the MCC Brussels think tank.

“Those running EU diplomacy are naive,” he added.

As long as the Muslim colonists occupying Judea & Samaria receive outside support they will continue to be intransigent. Cut off external funding and they will have to be reasonable.

PEACE 😇
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(1) https://ninetymilesfromtyranny.blogspot.com/2023/10/eu-spent-100m-on-pipelines-that-hamas.html

I went down this trail and then double-backed, and climbed a tree in the middle of the path…They were fooled, and I watched them go by and chuckled silently. But they weren’t hunting dogs.

In years past I’ve played games like that with hunting dogs. They would find us pretty quick. You could tell it was great fun for them. Fun for us too.

I should like to propose an alternative to the fiendish EU currency, which has no Europeans depicted in it:

Computer-averaged faces of different nationalities (no migrants) with a label underneath for their classification.