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Here’s a new Open Thread for all of you. To minimize the load, please continue to limit your Tweets or place them under a MORE tag.

Given the enormous world focus on the Israel/Gaza conflict, people might be interested in my two most recent articles on that topic:

I also did a long podcast interview on the subject a week or two ago:

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Gaza, Hamas, Israel/Palestine, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Lavrov facetiously airbrushing, with cheap paint, mind you, the pivotal Russian role in fabricating, and populating, the Rothschild neocolony in Palestine.

    Lavrov blames Anglo-Saxons for pushing Middle East towards big war
    https://tass.com/politics/1702181

    Trumpet’s spray-on fake orange tan looks better.

    • Replies: @meena
    @Jesuitic Ziowahhabiz

    It was the Jewish delegation from Russia that forced Herzl to abandon thoughts of any non-Palestinian locations . Chaim Weizmann also dismissed the idea of any place other than Palestine.

    Replies: @Greasy William

  2. NATO = ZOG
    Ukraine = ZOG
    Russia = ZOG
    China = ZOG

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Nico X

    Christmas = Egg NOG!

  3. The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history. Even Hollywood mouth pieces are now doom calling the MCU.

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history.

    Well finally some good news.

    Those comic book movies are played out and 90% of them are garbage.

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    That isn't the problem. Those movies would still suck even with an all-White cast.

    They don't have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.

    I used to know someone that worked at one of these studios. He said they don't even care if Americans like the movies. They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Not Raul
    @A123

    Iger shouldn’t have retired until he found a solid successor, and he shouldn’t have come back.

    Before he retired the first time, he was considered a legend.

  4. A post-Kiev regime controlled Ukraine isn’t so unrealistic given the horrifically tragic svidomite missteps –

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mikhail

    Zelda shirt guy doesn't make any sense.

    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines? He tried to take it all and his main goal of the war was to stop the expansion of NATO. Well that didn't happen as Finland has joined. He doesn't have all of Donbas and is willing to negotiate.


    Some good fireworks in Crimea
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yq4jCeSaFz0

    Replies: @A123

  5. Also of note is that deaths are concentrated regionally: 69% in the West, and just 52% in the East. This implies heavier losses from the main bastions of Ukrainian Nationalists. The implications of that are pretty obvious.

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/western-officials-increasingly-pushing

    Just to correct some misinformation in the previous thread.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @LondonBob

    Some "stalemate".

  6. @LondonBob

    Also of note is that deaths are concentrated regionally: 69% in the West, and just 52% in the East. This implies heavier losses from the main bastions of Ukrainian Nationalists. The implications of that are pretty obvious.
     
    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/western-officials-increasingly-pushing

    Just to correct some misinformation in the previous thread.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Some “stalemate”.

  7. @Mikhail
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09er0WPT7Ro

    A post-Kiev regime controlled Ukraine isn't so unrealistic given the horrifically tragic svidomite missteps -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGPeNGQbD8E

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Zelda shirt guy doesn’t make any sense.

    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines? He tried to take it all and his main goal of the war was to stop the expansion of NATO. Well that didn’t happen as Finland has joined. He doesn’t have all of Donbas and is willing to negotiate.

    Some good fireworks in Crimea
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yq4jCeSaFz0

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson, @Mikhail, @Mr. Hack

  8. @A123
    The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history. Even Hollywood mouth pieces are now doom calling the MCU.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3X1qIZf0w9w

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Not Raul

    The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history.

    Well finally some good news.

    Those comic book movies are played out and 90% of them are garbage.

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    That isn’t the problem. Those movies would still suck even with an all-White cast.

    They don’t have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.

    I used to know someone that worked at one of these studios. He said they don’t even care if Americans like the movies. They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson


    They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.
     
    You may notice a subtle difference between the China and U.S. posters for this movie.

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/8f/cb/1c/8fcb1c55309d1e4a07322f2f1404ac93.png
     

    SJW messages don't make money overseas either.

    They don’t have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.
     
    I concur.

    One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.

    Poor writing leads to late changes. Requiring CGI rework with insufficient time produces results that are laughable fails. Conditions are so bad, the VFX studios with Disney contracts are unionizing.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QlhJF74dW08

    Perlmutter was their best merchandising guy. He was forced out for being correct that bad movies will not move toys. Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions. He is one of the people working with Nelson Peltz on the shareholder effort to oust Bob Iger.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

  9. Based on the Nashville trannifesto (don’t know why Sailer puts an ‘s’ in there), I speculate that the shooter could have been identified as being psychotic many years beforehand, by an AI handwriting and composition analysis, with physiognomy thrown in.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @songbird

    And spelling, as well.
    _______
    Is Scholz cucking the Jays, when he says he will begin deporting on a 'grand scale?'

    BTW, I didn't watch it, but DW is running stories like this now:
    https://youtu.be/jBdyqE20smI?si=H6wxJgRU-cKhXtp9

  10. @Nico X
    NATO = ZOG
    Ukraine = ZOG
    Russia = ZOG
    China = ZOG

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Christmas = Egg NOG!

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  11. What is pictured in wallpainting right next to wall clock? Judging with ignorant eye from afar, looks like it could be some scene about three musketeers and cardinal Richelieu;)

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @sudden death

    It represents the takeover of New Amsterdam by the English.
    The picture can be seen on this site, together with some other murals from room 300 of NY court of appeals:
    https://history.nycourts.gov/60-centre-street-lookback/
    If you click on it, you can make out the inscription below: "In 1664 the province of New Netherland passed from the Dutch to the English".
    The guy with the wooden leg is the last Dutch governor Petrus Stuyvesant:
    https://www.mcny.org/petrus-stuyvesant

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  12. @John Johnson
    @Mikhail

    Zelda shirt guy doesn't make any sense.

    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines? He tried to take it all and his main goal of the war was to stop the expansion of NATO. Well that didn't happen as Finland has joined. He doesn't have all of Donbas and is willing to negotiate.


    Some good fireworks in Crimea
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yq4jCeSaFz0

    Replies: @A123

    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?

    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @A123


    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
     
    I thought that after the Kakhovka Dam destruction, this was no longer true?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

    Quite interesting that Melitopol, one of the Ukrainian cities that Russia actually did conquer, was the birthplace of one of the prominent WWII-era Ukrainian nationalists:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Dontsov

    Russian rule in Melitopol, in addition to being very oppressive, has also been cringe:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-reinstates-lenin-statue-in-ukraines-melitopol-years-after-kyiv-took-it-down/

    Replies: @A123

    , @John Johnson
    @A123


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:
    No NATO ever for Ukraine

    How do you know that was gained when negotiations haven't happened? We don't know if Russia will make that demand. He hasn't demanded that Finland leave NATO.

    Ukraine is closer to joining NATO than they were before the war. They didn't have the votes of France and Germany before the invasion.

    There is also the question of Zaporizhia. They weren't part of LPR/DPR and were strong supporters of Zelensky. Are we supposed to believe they voted to join Russia?

    International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    The world views Putin as winning even though the UN voted 143-5 that the annexations were illegal? Most world leaders view him as an angry dwarf tyrant. Slicing off a piece of Ukraine will not change that view.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation.

    I asked why it is a win if he tried to take it all. He also stated that the primary goal is to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO.

    I'm judging him based on his own goals as stated in the invasion speech:

    “Today, I again consider it necessary to come back to the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and the key issue of ensuring Russian security. Let me start with what I said in my address of February 21. I am referring to what causes us particular concern and anxiety – those fundamental threats against our country that year after year, step by step, are offensively and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West.

    “I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

    NATO is now closer to Russian borders. Finland shares more border with NATO and is closer to Russia's population centers.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/putins-speech-declaring-war-on-ukraine-translated-excerpts

    Are we supposed to ignore his original speech and pretend the war was about gaining a bridge and a powerplant?

    Why would this be a win for Russia based on Putin's goals? Seems like a disaster where neither side wins.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @QCIC

    , @Mikhail
    @A123

    Like talking to a wall.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    The war is not over yet. I suggest that you reserve your Putlerite ass licking comments for after the war. I don't think, however, that there will be much to cheer about at that time.

    Replies: @Derer

  13. @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson, @Mikhail, @Mr. Hack

    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply

    I thought that after the Kakhovka Dam destruction, this was no longer true?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

    Quite interesting that Melitopol, one of the Ukrainian cities that Russia actually did conquer, was the birthplace of one of the prominent WWII-era Ukrainian nationalists:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Dontsov

    Russian rule in Melitopol, in addition to being very oppressive, has also been cringe:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-reinstates-lenin-statue-in-ukraines-melitopol-years-after-kyiv-took-it-down/

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @A123
    @Mr. XYZ



    What did Russia gain:
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
     
    I thought that after the Kakhovka Dam destruction, this was no longer true?
     
    Kiev's wanton destruction of the Kakhovka Dam did interrupt short-term water distribution. The point I made is about long-term Russian gains. The critical win is access for future supply.

    Russia has a number of options to deal with the damage caused by Zelensky's thugs. For example, a simple intake structure and lift pumps powered by electricity from Russia's ZNPP. That is much easier than the Kerch Strait bridge project.

    PEACE 😇
  14. @Mr. XYZ
    @A123


    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
     
    I thought that after the Kakhovka Dam destruction, this was no longer true?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam

    Quite interesting that Melitopol, one of the Ukrainian cities that Russia actually did conquer, was the birthplace of one of the prominent WWII-era Ukrainian nationalists:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Dontsov

    Russian rule in Melitopol, in addition to being very oppressive, has also been cringe:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-reinstates-lenin-statue-in-ukraines-melitopol-years-after-kyiv-took-it-down/

    Replies: @A123

    What did Russia gain:
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply

    I thought that after the Kakhovka Dam destruction, this was no longer true?

    Kiev’s wanton destruction of the Kakhovka Dam did interrupt short-term water distribution. The point I made is about long-term Russian gains. The critical win is access for future supply.

    Russia has a number of options to deal with the damage caused by Zelensky’s thugs. For example, a simple intake structure and lift pumps powered by electricity from Russia’s ZNPP. That is much easier than the Kerch Strait bridge project.

    PEACE 😇

  15. @A123
    The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history. Even Hollywood mouth pieces are now doom calling the MCU.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3X1qIZf0w9w

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Not Raul

    Iger shouldn’t have retired until he found a solid successor, and he shouldn’t have come back.

    Before he retired the first time, he was considered a legend.

  16. @John Johnson
    @A123

    The Marvels is set to release this Thursday. Ticket presales indicate it will be the worst performing movie in franchise history.

    Well finally some good news.

    Those comic book movies are played out and 90% of them are garbage.

    It is unlikely that Bob Iger will admit his divisive race & gender swaps are the problem. Will a shareholder revolt finally kick him out?

    That isn't the problem. Those movies would still suck even with an all-White cast.

    They don't have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.

    I used to know someone that worked at one of these studios. He said they don't even care if Americans like the movies. They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.

    Replies: @A123

    They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.

    You may notice a subtle difference between the China and U.S. posters for this movie.

     

     

    SJW messages don’t make money overseas either.

    They don’t have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.

    I concur.

    One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.

    Poor writing leads to late changes. Requiring CGI rework with insufficient time produces results that are laughable fails. Conditions are so bad, the VFX studios with Disney contracts are unionizing.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    Perlmutter was their best merchandising guy. He was forced out for being correct that bad movies will not move toys. Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions. He is one of the people working with Nelson Peltz on the shareholder effort to oust Bob Iger.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    SJW messages don’t make money overseas either.

    Black Panther features Black characters. I don't see how that would be a SJW message.

    I really don't care if Disney wants to have movies with non-White actors. In fact I don't get why (White) nerds seem to think all lead characters should be White and male.

    The problem is that the movies suck. The new Star Wars movies for example are all terrible. Even if you made the actors all-White they would still be using lazy re-hashed scripts. The best content is on Disney+ and it isn't related to a lack of minorities. Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.

    There is also no reason to assume that a White cast would fix these bombs they keep producing. Mark Hamil for example is a lousy screen actor. The originals are great movies but his lines are cringe. There is a reason why Harrison Ford went on to make movies but not Mark Hamil.

    I don't deny that Disney will insert SWJ messages or up the diversity to 11. The gay kid and whiney straight men in Strange World were total cringe. Really would have been a decent movie otherwise.

    But I think the main problem is a lack of good story writing. They just don't care about telling stories. They churn out CGI eye candy and try to hit every diversity box. Returning to all-White casts wouldn't solve the problem.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    There is always Black Panther stuff on clearance at Walmart. I just wish it was useful like toilet paper or paper towels.

    Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions.

    They at least scaled those down a bit. There was a Christmas where some executive clearly thought that action figures for girls were going to be a big seller. Walmart had them on clearance for months. Total gender denial. Girls here in rural America will play with nerf guns and pink 4x4s but I never see them playing with action figures.

    Replies: @A123, @Wokechoke

  17. @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson, @Mikhail, @Mr. Hack

    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?

    What did Russia gain:
    No NATO ever for Ukraine

    How do you know that was gained when negotiations haven’t happened? We don’t know if Russia will make that demand. He hasn’t demanded that Finland leave NATO.

    Ukraine is closer to joining NATO than they were before the war. They didn’t have the votes of France and Germany before the invasion.

    There is also the question of Zaporizhia. They weren’t part of LPR/DPR and were strong supporters of Zelensky. Are we supposed to believe they voted to join Russia?

    International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    The world views Putin as winning even though the UN voted 143-5 that the annexations were illegal? Most world leaders view him as an angry dwarf tyrant. Slicing off a piece of Ukraine will not change that view.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation.

    I asked why it is a win if he tried to take it all. He also stated that the primary goal is to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO.

    I’m judging him based on his own goals as stated in the invasion speech:

    “Today, I again consider it necessary to come back to the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and the key issue of ensuring Russian security. Let me start with what I said in my address of February 21. I am referring to what causes us particular concern and anxiety – those fundamental threats against our country that year after year, step by step, are offensively and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West.

    “I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

    NATO is now closer to Russian borders. Finland shares more border with NATO and is closer to Russia’s population centers.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/putins-speech-declaring-war-on-ukraine-translated-excerpts

    Are we supposed to ignore his original speech and pretend the war was about gaining a bridge and a powerplant?

    Why would this be a win for Russia based on Putin’s goals? Seems like a disaster where neither side wins.

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @John Johnson

    Hypothetically Turkey could exit NATO though.

    , @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    What's the rush?

    In the big picture the SMO is still in Phase 1 or Act I if you prefer. In this scheme of nation re-building Phase I includes all serious combat, Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    Replies: @John Johnson

  18. @A123
    @John Johnson


    They make plenty from overseas sales where people watch this garbage because it is eyecandy with subtitles.
     
    You may notice a subtle difference between the China and U.S. posters for this movie.

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/8f/cb/1c/8fcb1c55309d1e4a07322f2f1404ac93.png
     

    SJW messages don't make money overseas either.

    They don’t have good writers and continue to overrely on CGI and merchandise sales.
     
    I concur.

    One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.

    Poor writing leads to late changes. Requiring CGI rework with insufficient time produces results that are laughable fails. Conditions are so bad, the VFX studios with Disney contracts are unionizing.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QlhJF74dW08

    Perlmutter was their best merchandising guy. He was forced out for being correct that bad movies will not move toys. Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions. He is one of the people working with Nelson Peltz on the shareholder effort to oust Bob Iger.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    SJW messages don’t make money overseas either.

    Black Panther features Black characters. I don’t see how that would be a SJW message.

    I really don’t care if Disney wants to have movies with non-White actors. In fact I don’t get why (White) nerds seem to think all lead characters should be White and male.

    The problem is that the movies suck. The new Star Wars movies for example are all terrible. Even if you made the actors all-White they would still be using lazy re-hashed scripts. The best content is on Disney+ and it isn’t related to a lack of minorities. Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.

    There is also no reason to assume that a White cast would fix these bombs they keep producing. Mark Hamil for example is a lousy screen actor. The originals are great movies but his lines are cringe. There is a reason why Harrison Ford went on to make movies but not Mark Hamil.

    I don’t deny that Disney will insert SWJ messages or up the diversity to 11. The gay kid and whiney straight men in Strange World were total cringe. Really would have been a decent movie otherwise.

    But I think the main problem is a lack of good story writing. They just don’t care about telling stories. They churn out CGI eye candy and try to hit every diversity box. Returning to all-White casts wouldn’t solve the problem.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    There is always Black Panther stuff on clearance at Walmart. I just wish it was useful like toilet paper or paper towels.

    Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions.

    They at least scaled those down a bit. There was a Christmas where some executive clearly thought that action figures for girls were going to be a big seller. Walmart had them on clearance for months. Total gender denial. Girls here in rural America will play with nerf guns and pink 4x4s but I never see them playing with action figures.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson

    I believe you are misreading my posts. You inserted the phrase "All White". If you go back & carefully review, you will see that I never said that. What I offered was:


    A123: I concur. One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.
     
    So to address your comment:

    JJ: Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.
     
    Mando Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. If you go back and re-watch, it is "comfortably mid". The Rey Palpatine trilogy made it look good by comparison. Right show at the right time.

    Mando Season 2 was thin & filled with call backs. There was so little story it was incidentally inoffensive. Season 3 is an abominable SJW train wreck featuring Lizzo, and of course bad writing. It can be mocked in humorous fashion though, for example:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vyOPqnp8BaM

    Andor Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. It had good writing, good casting, and was effectively done before HQ took the opportunity to look at it. Supposedly they were appalled, pulled the marketing effort for it, and thus ensured it had the minimum number of viewers despite being the best Star Wars product out there.

    There will be a Season 2 of Andor, but I have not heard if it is SJW Woke and thus guaranteed to be badly written.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Wokechoke
    @John Johnson

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    It’s a great pity that George Lucas didn’t have those two as the prequels to Star Wars: New Hope.

    Loosely enough based on the Space Opera conception but gave a little background to Han as a young criminal and the Rebels as an accidental event.


    It’s a pity about the ponderously made 1,2,3.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children. Make it Spicy and have the Twins be the result of a rape by Anakin.

    The films after meh. Waste of time. The identity of the Emperor was a huge waste of time.

    Replies: @Sher Singh, @John Johnson, @Societal Spectacle

  19. German_reader says:
    @sudden death
    What is pictured in wallpainting right next to wall clock? Judging with ignorant eye from afar, looks like it could be some scene about three musketeers and cardinal Richelieu;)

    https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/0f39e084-b43f-4e9a-85c1-2b72eaba1c59.jpg

    Replies: @German_reader

    It represents the takeover of New Amsterdam by the English.
    The picture can be seen on this site, together with some other murals from room 300 of NY court of appeals:
    https://history.nycourts.gov/60-centre-street-lookback/
    If you click on it, you can make out the inscription below: “In 1664 the province of New Netherland passed from the Dutch to the English”.
    The guy with the wooden leg is the last Dutch governor Petrus Stuyvesant:
    https://www.mcny.org/petrus-stuyvesant

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    Peter hated Jews.

    https://therightstuff.biz/2023/10/28/njp-protest-in-washington-against-israel/

    He had the right stuff

  20. News you cannot use.

    Only a few days after Ukie military chief Zaluzhny gave not-so-upbeat interview to The Economist, which annoyed Ukie clown-in-chief no end, Zaluzhny’s assistant major Gennady Chistyakov died of explosion in his home in Kiev region. His son was severely wounded.

    There are two versions regarding this event.
    One, the official, pushed by the Ukie Internal Ministry: he blew himself up while playing with a hand grenade.
    Two, the version supported by the photos from the scene and reiterated by Zaluzhniy himself: the process of opening of one of his birthday presents triggered built-in explosive device. Unofficial source in the Ukie Internal Ministry says that the present with the explosive device was from senior assistant to Zaluzhny’s deputy certain Timchenko A.V.

    Although I don’t think anyone should shed any tears on the account of Chistyakov’s demise, it is curious that impending catastrophe of the Kiev regime makes the snakes in the snake pit bite each other.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AnonfromTN

    Have you read Unz' front page piece?

    Best bit is something like this isn't an eye for an eye it's more like a neighborhood for an eye.

    He cites you. The thing about wanting to hang the administrators of the International Crime Court. : )

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  21. @AnonfromTN
    News you cannot use.

    Only a few days after Ukie military chief Zaluzhny gave not-so-upbeat interview to The Economist, which annoyed Ukie clown-in-chief no end, Zaluzhny’s assistant major Gennady Chistyakov died of explosion in his home in Kiev region. His son was severely wounded.

    There are two versions regarding this event.
    One, the official, pushed by the Ukie Internal Ministry: he blew himself up while playing with a hand grenade.
    Two, the version supported by the photos from the scene and reiterated by Zaluzhniy himself: the process of opening of one of his birthday presents triggered built-in explosive device. Unofficial source in the Ukie Internal Ministry says that the present with the explosive device was from senior assistant to Zaluzhny’s deputy certain Timchenko A.V.

    Although I don’t think anyone should shed any tears on the account of Chistyakov’s demise, it is curious that impending catastrophe of the Kiev regime makes the snakes in the snake pit bite each other.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Have you read Unz’ front page piece?

    Best bit is something like this isn’t an eye for an eye it’s more like a neighborhood for an eye.

    He cites you. The thing about wanting to hang the administrators of the International Crime Court. : )

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    He cites you.
     
    Yes, I’ve read it. I’ve noticed that Ron noticed.

    Let me try another comment that Ron and other people might notice:

    There is a lot of talk about humanitarian pauses in the Israeli bombing of Gaza. In plain English, this is a call for pauses to allow “humanitarians” to feed Gaza women and children before Israel murders them. How incredibly humane! Western values in action, no doubt.

  22. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AnonfromTN

    Have you read Unz' front page piece?

    Best bit is something like this isn't an eye for an eye it's more like a neighborhood for an eye.

    He cites you. The thing about wanting to hang the administrators of the International Crime Court. : )

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    He cites you.

    Yes, I’ve read it. I’ve noticed that Ron noticed.

    Let me try another comment that Ron and other people might notice:

    There is a lot of talk about humanitarian pauses in the Israeli bombing of Gaza. In plain English, this is a call for pauses to allow “humanitarians” to feed Gaza women and children before Israel murders them. How incredibly humane! Western values in action, no doubt.

  23. @songbird
    Based on the Nashville trannifesto (don't know why Sailer puts an 's' in there), I speculate that the shooter could have been identified as being psychotic many years beforehand, by an AI handwriting and composition analysis, with physiognomy thrown in.

    Replies: @songbird

    And spelling, as well.
    _______
    Is Scholz cucking the Jays, when he says he will begin deporting on a ‘grand scale?’

    BTW, I didn’t watch it, but DW is running stories like this now:

    [MORE]

  24. @John Johnson
    @A123

    SJW messages don’t make money overseas either.

    Black Panther features Black characters. I don't see how that would be a SJW message.

    I really don't care if Disney wants to have movies with non-White actors. In fact I don't get why (White) nerds seem to think all lead characters should be White and male.

    The problem is that the movies suck. The new Star Wars movies for example are all terrible. Even if you made the actors all-White they would still be using lazy re-hashed scripts. The best content is on Disney+ and it isn't related to a lack of minorities. Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.

    There is also no reason to assume that a White cast would fix these bombs they keep producing. Mark Hamil for example is a lousy screen actor. The originals are great movies but his lines are cringe. There is a reason why Harrison Ford went on to make movies but not Mark Hamil.

    I don't deny that Disney will insert SWJ messages or up the diversity to 11. The gay kid and whiney straight men in Strange World were total cringe. Really would have been a decent movie otherwise.

    But I think the main problem is a lack of good story writing. They just don't care about telling stories. They churn out CGI eye candy and try to hit every diversity box. Returning to all-White casts wouldn't solve the problem.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    There is always Black Panther stuff on clearance at Walmart. I just wish it was useful like toilet paper or paper towels.

    Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions.

    They at least scaled those down a bit. There was a Christmas where some executive clearly thought that action figures for girls were going to be a big seller. Walmart had them on clearance for months. Total gender denial. Girls here in rural America will play with nerf guns and pink 4x4s but I never see them playing with action figures.

    Replies: @A123, @Wokechoke

    I believe you are misreading my posts. You inserted the phrase “All White”. If you go back & carefully review, you will see that I never said that. What I offered was:

    A123: I concur. One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.

    So to address your comment:

    JJ: Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.

    Mando Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. If you go back and re-watch, it is “comfortably mid”. The Rey Palpatine trilogy made it look good by comparison. Right show at the right time.

    Mando Season 2 was thin & filled with call backs. There was so little story it was incidentally inoffensive. Season 3 is an abominable SJW train wreck featuring Lizzo, and of course bad writing. It can be mocked in humorous fashion though, for example:

    Andor Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. It had good writing, good casting, and was effectively done before HQ took the opportunity to look at it. Supposedly they were appalled, pulled the marketing effort for it, and thus ensured it had the minimum number of viewers despite being the best Star Wars product out there.

    There will be a Season 2 of Andor, but I have not heard if it is SJW Woke and thus guaranteed to be badly written.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    Mando Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. If you go back and re-watch, it is “comfortably mid”. The Rey Palpatine trilogy made it look good by comparison. Right show at the right time.

    I enjoyed all of the Mandalorian seasons even if some of the YOU GO GIRL scenes were overdone. They at least used a female UFC fighter which is vastly preferable to the Hollywood 5'3 90 pound chick that can beat up full grown men.

    Even the worst Mandalorian episodes are far better than crap like Kenobi. God what a POS. I couldn't make it through half the season. I watched 5 minutes of Ashoka on youttube and that was too much.

    I don't normally like comic book movies but I did enjoy Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Marvels looks awful. White comic book dorks will take their kids anyways which is half the problem. They will pay full price and then blog about how awful it was.

  25. @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson, @Mikhail, @Mr. Hack

    Like talking to a wall.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Mikhail


    Like talking to a wall.

     

    Yes. I know.

    But absurd contrivance at post #7 might scare away potential new commenters with valuable insights. So, sanity and reason had to be placed on display. If JJ had done it at post #200+ it would be much easier to ignore.

    PEACE 😇
  26. @German_reader
    @sudden death

    It represents the takeover of New Amsterdam by the English.
    The picture can be seen on this site, together with some other murals from room 300 of NY court of appeals:
    https://history.nycourts.gov/60-centre-street-lookback/
    If you click on it, you can make out the inscription below: "In 1664 the province of New Netherland passed from the Dutch to the English".
    The guy with the wooden leg is the last Dutch governor Petrus Stuyvesant:
    https://www.mcny.org/petrus-stuyvesant

    Replies: @Wokechoke

  27. @John Johnson
    @A123


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:
    No NATO ever for Ukraine

    How do you know that was gained when negotiations haven't happened? We don't know if Russia will make that demand. He hasn't demanded that Finland leave NATO.

    Ukraine is closer to joining NATO than they were before the war. They didn't have the votes of France and Germany before the invasion.

    There is also the question of Zaporizhia. They weren't part of LPR/DPR and were strong supporters of Zelensky. Are we supposed to believe they voted to join Russia?

    International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    The world views Putin as winning even though the UN voted 143-5 that the annexations were illegal? Most world leaders view him as an angry dwarf tyrant. Slicing off a piece of Ukraine will not change that view.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation.

    I asked why it is a win if he tried to take it all. He also stated that the primary goal is to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO.

    I'm judging him based on his own goals as stated in the invasion speech:

    “Today, I again consider it necessary to come back to the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and the key issue of ensuring Russian security. Let me start with what I said in my address of February 21. I am referring to what causes us particular concern and anxiety – those fundamental threats against our country that year after year, step by step, are offensively and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West.

    “I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

    NATO is now closer to Russian borders. Finland shares more border with NATO and is closer to Russia's population centers.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/putins-speech-declaring-war-on-ukraine-translated-excerpts

    Are we supposed to ignore his original speech and pretend the war was about gaining a bridge and a powerplant?

    Why would this be a win for Russia based on Putin's goals? Seems like a disaster where neither side wins.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @QCIC

    Hypothetically Turkey could exit NATO though.

  28. @John Johnson
    @A123

    SJW messages don’t make money overseas either.

    Black Panther features Black characters. I don't see how that would be a SJW message.

    I really don't care if Disney wants to have movies with non-White actors. In fact I don't get why (White) nerds seem to think all lead characters should be White and male.

    The problem is that the movies suck. The new Star Wars movies for example are all terrible. Even if you made the actors all-White they would still be using lazy re-hashed scripts. The best content is on Disney+ and it isn't related to a lack of minorities. Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.

    There is also no reason to assume that a White cast would fix these bombs they keep producing. Mark Hamil for example is a lousy screen actor. The originals are great movies but his lines are cringe. There is a reason why Harrison Ford went on to make movies but not Mark Hamil.

    I don't deny that Disney will insert SWJ messages or up the diversity to 11. The gay kid and whiney straight men in Strange World were total cringe. Really would have been a decent movie otherwise.

    But I think the main problem is a lack of good story writing. They just don't care about telling stories. They churn out CGI eye candy and try to hit every diversity box. Returning to all-White casts wouldn't solve the problem.

    The unsold merchandise associated with failed movies and characters is massive. Eternals came out in 2021 and discounters are still flooded with those toys.

    There is always Black Panther stuff on clearance at Walmart. I just wish it was useful like toilet paper or paper towels.

    Also, he dared to state that female action figures sell vastly worse than male ones, with very rare exceptions.

    They at least scaled those down a bit. There was a Christmas where some executive clearly thought that action figures for girls were going to be a big seller. Walmart had them on clearance for months. Total gender denial. Girls here in rural America will play with nerf guns and pink 4x4s but I never see them playing with action figures.

    Replies: @A123, @Wokechoke

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    It’s a great pity that George Lucas didn’t have those two as the prequels to Star Wars: New Hope.

    Loosely enough based on the Space Opera conception but gave a little background to Han as a young criminal and the Rebels as an accidental event.

    It’s a pity about the ponderously made 1,2,3.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children. Make it Spicy and have the Twins be the result of a rape by Anakin.

    The films after meh. Waste of time. The identity of the Emperor was a huge waste of time.

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @Wokechoke

    Was Lucas's influenced by Yogi Bhajan?

    , @John Johnson
    @Wokechoke

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    Agreed and I prefer them to any of the newer stuff. Solo is one of the most underrated Star Wars films. More like an action movie in space.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children.

    The third one would be decent if not for Hayden Christensen.

    It has some good action scenes but I can't go back and watch it. His lines are awful. Samuel L Jackson seems out of place. His same angry Black man character but with a Jedi outfit. Total eyeroll.

    But the worst Black character by far is jar-jar.

    Replies: @AP, @QCIC

    , @Societal Spectacle
    @Wokechoke

    “Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan.”

    In his perceived inability to save his mother, he first killed a camp of Tusken Raiders. As you described, his rage further devolved into the killings of the Jedi younglings. Developmentally, he best fits into Jane Loevinger’s “self-protective” stage of ego development in which he is need of control to the point of dictating his own sense of moral justice. He in effect emerged as an injustice collector.

    In 1927 Andrew Kehoe, the orchestrator of the Bath school bombing that killed 45 people including 38 children did not leave a note, but he left a sign on his property stating, “Criminals are made, not born.” Kehoe’s mother died while he had been away to college and then working.

    “Clouded this boy’s future is,” Yoda. This statement in review adds to the emergence of his personality throughout the story arc.

  29. @Mikhail
    @A123

    Like talking to a wall.

    Replies: @A123

    Like talking to a wall.

    Yes. I know.

    But absurd contrivance at post #7 might scare away potential new commenters with valuable insights. So, sanity and reason had to be placed on display. If JJ had done it at post #200+ it would be much easier to ignore.

    PEACE 😇

  30. @Wokechoke
    @John Johnson

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    It’s a great pity that George Lucas didn’t have those two as the prequels to Star Wars: New Hope.

    Loosely enough based on the Space Opera conception but gave a little background to Han as a young criminal and the Rebels as an accidental event.


    It’s a pity about the ponderously made 1,2,3.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children. Make it Spicy and have the Twins be the result of a rape by Anakin.

    The films after meh. Waste of time. The identity of the Emperor was a huge waste of time.

    Replies: @Sher Singh, @John Johnson, @Societal Spectacle

    Was Lucas’s influenced by Yogi Bhajan?

  31. @Wokechoke
    @John Johnson

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    It’s a great pity that George Lucas didn’t have those two as the prequels to Star Wars: New Hope.

    Loosely enough based on the Space Opera conception but gave a little background to Han as a young criminal and the Rebels as an accidental event.


    It’s a pity about the ponderously made 1,2,3.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children. Make it Spicy and have the Twins be the result of a rape by Anakin.

    The films after meh. Waste of time. The identity of the Emperor was a huge waste of time.

    Replies: @Sher Singh, @John Johnson, @Societal Spectacle

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    Agreed and I prefer them to any of the newer stuff. Solo is one of the most underrated Star Wars films. More like an action movie in space.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children.

    The third one would be decent if not for Hayden Christensen.

    It has some good action scenes but I can’t go back and watch it. His lines are awful. Samuel L Jackson seems out of place. His same angry Black man character but with a Jedi outfit. Total eyeroll.

    But the worst Black character by far is jar-jar.

    • Replies: @AP
    @John Johnson

    I saw Solo and don't remember it much, so it was neither terrible nor good.

    Rogue One was good, and better than anything other than the original trilogy MO.

    The Lucas prequels were bad, but had good fight scenes at least. The third one was okay. In part, it was a barely veiled analogy of the Bush administration. Lucas may have been more passionate about this for that reason, resulting in a better film than the previous two.

    The last trilogy was terrible, but with nice special effects. I don't remember if I watched all 3.

    I haven't watched any of the TV shows because I don't have Disney + and I couldn't be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    My kids agree with me that all the new Starwars stuff is garbage other than Rogue One. They did not grow up with the first series (though they enjoyed it) so they basically don't care about Star Wars.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    , @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    I nominate jar-jar as the worst character of all time.

    To be fair the bit where he got his hand stuck in the engine was actually good.

  32. Bibi just announced that Israel will be occupying Gaza permanently after the ground invasion has been completed. It’s Bibi, so he’ll walk it back but that he’s saying it shows that the government and IDF have already examined all options and realized that they have no choice.

    Biden is in horrendous electoral shape. He appears weak and feckless to swing voters, no Muslim will vote for him, centrist Dems are being turned off by the increasing antisemitism within the Democratic party and black and Latino voters are frustrated by Dems continuing to put the interest of immigrants over their own.

    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    Gaza should be cleaned up in the next few months after which things will temporarily calm down. Russia is clearly preparing to move on Israel but likely needs a couple more years to properly prepare for an invasion.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Greasy William

    So a Biden landslide this time, eh?

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Greasy William


    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win. Wasn't Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @A123

    , @AnonfromTN
    @Greasy William


    If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    Are you really so naïve, or just pretend? In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned. It’s the democracy, stupid! Only vile dictators care what the people in their countries think.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard

  33. @A123
    @John Johnson

    I believe you are misreading my posts. You inserted the phrase "All White". If you go back & carefully review, you will see that I never said that. What I offered was:


    A123: I concur. One can tell good stories -or- push a deviant woke agenda. Disney chose the later.
     
    So to address your comment:

    JJ: Mandalorian and Andor are good series and have a lot of non-Whites. They also have good writers that focus on quality episodes.
     
    Mando Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. If you go back and re-watch, it is "comfortably mid". The Rey Palpatine trilogy made it look good by comparison. Right show at the right time.

    Mando Season 2 was thin & filled with call backs. There was so little story it was incidentally inoffensive. Season 3 is an abominable SJW train wreck featuring Lizzo, and of course bad writing. It can be mocked in humorous fashion though, for example:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vyOPqnp8BaM

    Andor Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. It had good writing, good casting, and was effectively done before HQ took the opportunity to look at it. Supposedly they were appalled, pulled the marketing effort for it, and thus ensured it had the minimum number of viewers despite being the best Star Wars product out there.

    There will be a Season 2 of Andor, but I have not heard if it is SJW Woke and thus guaranteed to be badly written.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Mando Season 1 avoided being SJW Woke, and thus was not guaranteed to have bad writing. If you go back and re-watch, it is “comfortably mid”. The Rey Palpatine trilogy made it look good by comparison. Right show at the right time.

    I enjoyed all of the Mandalorian seasons even if some of the YOU GO GIRL scenes were overdone. They at least used a female UFC fighter which is vastly preferable to the Hollywood 5’3 90 pound chick that can beat up full grown men.

    Even the worst Mandalorian episodes are far better than crap like Kenobi. God what a POS. I couldn’t make it through half the season. I watched 5 minutes of Ashoka on youttube and that was too much.

    I don’t normally like comic book movies but I did enjoy Guardians of the Galaxy.

    Marvels looks awful. White comic book dorks will take their kids anyways which is half the problem. They will pay full price and then blog about how awful it was.

  34. Dershowitz v Finkelstein:

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein?

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein's classified list of clients?

    If so I'll watch. If not there is nothing Dershowitz has to offer.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Mikhail

    Didn't Dershowitz engage in some shady behavior a while back to get Finkelstein denied tenure?

    Replies: @Mikhail

  35. @Mikhail
    Dershowitz v Finkelstein:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FthzjSvHWIQ

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. XYZ

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein?

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein’s classified list of clients?

    If so I’ll watch. If not there is nothing Dershowitz has to offer.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    It's the other guy Finkelstein going against Dersh, which should be intellectually entertaining.

  36. @John Johnson
    @Wokechoke

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    Agreed and I prefer them to any of the newer stuff. Solo is one of the most underrated Star Wars films. More like an action movie in space.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children.

    The third one would be decent if not for Hayden Christensen.

    It has some good action scenes but I can't go back and watch it. His lines are awful. Samuel L Jackson seems out of place. His same angry Black man character but with a Jedi outfit. Total eyeroll.

    But the worst Black character by far is jar-jar.

    Replies: @AP, @QCIC

    I saw Solo and don’t remember it much, so it was neither terrible nor good.

    Rogue One was good, and better than anything other than the original trilogy MO.

    The Lucas prequels were bad, but had good fight scenes at least. The third one was okay. In part, it was a barely veiled analogy of the Bush administration. Lucas may have been more passionate about this for that reason, resulting in a better film than the previous two.

    The last trilogy was terrible, but with nice special effects. I don’t remember if I watched all 3.

    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    My kids agree with me that all the new Starwars stuff is garbage other than Rogue One. They did not grow up with the first series (though they enjoyed it) so they basically don’t care about Star Wars.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.
     
    Try Netflix. Some of the shows on there are pretty good. Hunter x Hunter (an anime), for instance. And some Latin American movies and TV shows. There's a stereotype that Latin America involves a lot of sex, shootings, and drugs.
    , @John Johnson
    @AP

    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    Well at $14 it is the price of a movie ticket and worth it for a few months to stream everything. Mandalorian alone is worth the price.

    I would also check out the Clone Wars movie. Even though it is animated it is still better than the newer stuff.

    They also have some interesting classic stuff. Old Mickey cartoons and stuff.

    Can't seem to find Song of the South though. I'll write Kathleen Kennedy and ask about it.

    Replies: @songbird

  37. @John Johnson
    @Wokechoke

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    Agreed and I prefer them to any of the newer stuff. Solo is one of the most underrated Star Wars films. More like an action movie in space.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children.

    The third one would be decent if not for Hayden Christensen.

    It has some good action scenes but I can't go back and watch it. His lines are awful. Samuel L Jackson seems out of place. His same angry Black man character but with a Jedi outfit. Total eyeroll.

    But the worst Black character by far is jar-jar.

    Replies: @AP, @QCIC

    I nominate jar-jar as the worst character of all time.

    To be fair the bit where he got his hand stuck in the engine was actually good.

    • Agree: John Johnson
  38. @Greasy William
    Bibi just announced that Israel will be occupying Gaza permanently after the ground invasion has been completed. It's Bibi, so he'll walk it back but that he's saying it shows that the government and IDF have already examined all options and realized that they have no choice.

    Biden is in horrendous electoral shape. He appears weak and feckless to swing voters, no Muslim will vote for him, centrist Dems are being turned off by the increasing antisemitism within the Democratic party and black and Latino voters are frustrated by Dems continuing to put the interest of immigrants over their own.

    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    Gaza should be cleaned up in the next few months after which things will temporarily calm down. Russia is clearly preparing to move on Israel but likely needs a couple more years to properly prepare for an invasion.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ, @AnonfromTN

    So a Biden landslide this time, eh?

  39. @AP
    @John Johnson

    I saw Solo and don't remember it much, so it was neither terrible nor good.

    Rogue One was good, and better than anything other than the original trilogy MO.

    The Lucas prequels were bad, but had good fight scenes at least. The third one was okay. In part, it was a barely veiled analogy of the Bush administration. Lucas may have been more passionate about this for that reason, resulting in a better film than the previous two.

    The last trilogy was terrible, but with nice special effects. I don't remember if I watched all 3.

    I haven't watched any of the TV shows because I don't have Disney + and I couldn't be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    My kids agree with me that all the new Starwars stuff is garbage other than Rogue One. They did not grow up with the first series (though they enjoyed it) so they basically don't care about Star Wars.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    Try Netflix. Some of the shows on there are pretty good. Hunter x Hunter (an anime), for instance. And some Latin American movies and TV shows. There’s a stereotype that Latin America involves a lot of sex, shootings, and drugs.

  40. @Mikhail
    Dershowitz v Finkelstein:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FthzjSvHWIQ

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Mr. XYZ

    Didn’t Dershowitz engage in some shady behavior a while back to get Finkelstein denied tenure?

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mr. XYZ

    Wouldn't surprise. Dersh has been kveching about penalizing students expressing pro-Pal/anti-Israeli views.

  41. @John Johnson
    @A123


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:
    No NATO ever for Ukraine

    How do you know that was gained when negotiations haven't happened? We don't know if Russia will make that demand. He hasn't demanded that Finland leave NATO.

    Ukraine is closer to joining NATO than they were before the war. They didn't have the votes of France and Germany before the invasion.

    There is also the question of Zaporizhia. They weren't part of LPR/DPR and were strong supporters of Zelensky. Are we supposed to believe they voted to join Russia?

    International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    The world views Putin as winning even though the UN voted 143-5 that the annexations were illegal? Most world leaders view him as an angry dwarf tyrant. Slicing off a piece of Ukraine will not change that view.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation.

    I asked why it is a win if he tried to take it all. He also stated that the primary goal is to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO.

    I'm judging him based on his own goals as stated in the invasion speech:

    “Today, I again consider it necessary to come back to the tragic events taking place in the Donbas and the key issue of ensuring Russian security. Let me start with what I said in my address of February 21. I am referring to what causes us particular concern and anxiety – those fundamental threats against our country that year after year, step by step, are offensively and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West.

    “I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

    NATO is now closer to Russian borders. Finland shares more border with NATO and is closer to Russia's population centers.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/putins-speech-declaring-war-on-ukraine-translated-excerpts

    Are we supposed to ignore his original speech and pretend the war was about gaining a bridge and a powerplant?

    Why would this be a win for Russia based on Putin's goals? Seems like a disaster where neither side wins.

    Replies: @Wokechoke, @QCIC

    What’s the rush?

    In the big picture the SMO is still in Phase 1 or Act I if you prefer. In this scheme of nation re-building Phase I includes all serious combat, Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Why would there be an IED phase? Russian polls show overwhelming support for the invaders and even in areas that supported Zelensky and not the pro-Russian parties. Are you suggesting that we can't trust Russian polls?

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    Well I don't think Putin is on your timeline.

    He has already offered to walk with the occupied oblasts and Crimea.

    The dwarf dictator is an ego maniac. He wants his victory parade before he is dead. His Totalitarian TV won't point out that his stated goal was to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO and not lose over 200k men trying to take land they don't need. He wants to fly his "Mission Accomplished" banner and pretend he is a great conqueror like his hero Peter.

    There is also no reason to assume that the land will remain Russian. Why does the average Russian care if the former DPR/LPR is part of Russia? Future Russians could trade it in exchange to get their Apple stores back. Americans under 30 would probably give up a state rather than lose Apple products. Putin is mortal but most of the sanctions could remain. Russia's GDP is smaller than Texas. Our corporations don't need their sales. The gas needs to flow but the technology sanctions could remain. Putin really didn't think this war out and just assumed he would win.

    Replies: @Beckow

  42. @Greasy William
    Bibi just announced that Israel will be occupying Gaza permanently after the ground invasion has been completed. It's Bibi, so he'll walk it back but that he's saying it shows that the government and IDF have already examined all options and realized that they have no choice.

    Biden is in horrendous electoral shape. He appears weak and feckless to swing voters, no Muslim will vote for him, centrist Dems are being turned off by the increasing antisemitism within the Democratic party and black and Latino voters are frustrated by Dems continuing to put the interest of immigrants over their own.

    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    Gaza should be cleaned up in the next few months after which things will temporarily calm down. Russia is clearly preparing to move on Israel but likely needs a couple more years to properly prepare for an invasion.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ, @AnonfromTN

    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win. Wasn’t Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mr. XYZ

    There won't be a Trump blowout.

    If he somehow doesn't catch a felony the Democrats will run someone else. In that scenario he would lose swing states.

    The Democrats are just being nice to Biden since he is in office and two wars are going on.

    He will be wheeled away at the right moment.

    Wasn’t Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    The Democrat is normally projected to win unless the Republican can take swing voters.

    Independents currently hate Trump but view Biden as unfit for office.

    Trump should quit so his MAGA cult will give up and rally around a candidate that beat Biden or a moderate Democrat.

    But most likely scenario is that Trump gets a felony and loses even more independents. He is facing 91 charges and it is possible that he could do prison time. The documents case is pretty damning because he is on tape asking someone to help cover it up.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win.
     
    The race is beyond the DNC's margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

     
    https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/trump%20ahead.JPG
     

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the "underdog" candidate. The sheer, irrational zealotry of #NeverTrump extremism is propelling his popularity. The #Bidenistas are so self deluded, they cannot comprehend that their persecution campaign is backfiring and making Trump 2024 stronger.

    PEACE 😇
    ___________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-233/#comment-6247260

    Replies: @John Johnson

  43. @AP
    @John Johnson

    I saw Solo and don't remember it much, so it was neither terrible nor good.

    Rogue One was good, and better than anything other than the original trilogy MO.

    The Lucas prequels were bad, but had good fight scenes at least. The third one was okay. In part, it was a barely veiled analogy of the Bush administration. Lucas may have been more passionate about this for that reason, resulting in a better film than the previous two.

    The last trilogy was terrible, but with nice special effects. I don't remember if I watched all 3.

    I haven't watched any of the TV shows because I don't have Disney + and I couldn't be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    My kids agree with me that all the new Starwars stuff is garbage other than Rogue One. They did not grow up with the first series (though they enjoyed it) so they basically don't care about Star Wars.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson

    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    Well at $14 it is the price of a movie ticket and worth it for a few months to stream everything. Mandalorian alone is worth the price.

    I would also check out the Clone Wars movie. Even though it is animated it is still better than the newer stuff.

    They also have some interesting classic stuff. Old Mickey cartoons and stuff.

    Can’t seem to find Song of the South though. I’ll write Kathleen Kennedy and ask about it.

    • LOL: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @songbird
    @John Johnson


    Can’t seem to find Song of the South though.
     
    I encourage people to watch Song of the South because it was super-woke for the day.

    They made sure to make it post-bellum because ante-bellum was taboo. The blacks were basically without a flaw (except lack of education), and even numinous, whereas many white characters had flaws, especially the poor boys.

    It is shocking and eye-opening to see it and understand that they essentially banned this film in the US, despite it having a very idealized depiction. I think it has a much broader significance for society, by extrapolation.
    _______
    iIRC, Chinese online were complaining about the diversity in Rogue One.

    They had that same cliche, an orphan or pseudo-orphan. Kind of a girl power film, when the girl was like 30 or something and should have been married by then before she becomes a leftover woman.

    Vader's voice sounded very decrepit.
  44. @Mr. XYZ
    @Greasy William


    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win. Wasn't Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @A123

    There won’t be a Trump blowout.

    If he somehow doesn’t catch a felony the Democrats will run someone else. In that scenario he would lose swing states.

    The Democrats are just being nice to Biden since he is in office and two wars are going on.

    He will be wheeled away at the right moment.

    Wasn’t Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    The Democrat is normally projected to win unless the Republican can take swing voters.

    Independents currently hate Trump but view Biden as unfit for office.

    Trump should quit so his MAGA cult will give up and rally around a candidate that beat Biden or a moderate Democrat.

    But most likely scenario is that Trump gets a felony and loses even more independents. He is facing 91 charges and it is possible that he could do prison time. The documents case is pretty damning because he is on tape asking someone to help cover it up.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @John Johnson


    He will be wheeled away at the right moment.
     
    Not if Trump gets a felony. Then Biden would be delighted to have a rematch with him.
  45. @Mr. XYZ
    @Greasy William


    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win. Wasn't Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @A123

    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win.

    The race is beyond the DNC’s margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

     

     

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate. The sheer, irrational zealotry of #NeverTrump extremism is propelling his popularity. The #Bidenistas are so self deluded, they cannot comprehend that their persecution campaign is backfiring and making Trump 2024 stronger.

    PEACE 😇
    ___________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-233/#comment-6247260

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    The race is beyond the DNC’s margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

    The DNC doesn't need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.

    They are just being nice at the moment.

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.

    It isn't an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden. If anything the underdog is Biden. He really doesn't belong in office or any type of managerial position. He should be at home watching TV.

    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    They aren't going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

  46. Loving darkroom mode on f.lux

  47. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikhail

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein?

    Did they ask him about Jeff Epstein's classified list of clients?

    If so I'll watch. If not there is nothing Dershowitz has to offer.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    It’s the other guy Finkelstein going against Dersh, which should be intellectually entertaining.

  48. @Mr. XYZ
    @Mikhail

    Didn't Dershowitz engage in some shady behavior a while back to get Finkelstein denied tenure?

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Wouldn’t surprise. Dersh has been kveching about penalizing students expressing pro-Pal/anti-Israeli views.

  49. Interesting story about the effects of firing large numbers of artillery shells on the battery crews:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
    Apparently the blasts can cause serious brain damage.

    • Agree: Sher Singh
    • Replies: @songbird
    @German_reader

    During WWI, the velocity of the gas ejected from the back of guns was deadly to anyone standing behind them.

    I wonder whether it is mainly some fraction of people who are susceptible - I believe football is like that.

    And whether someone with a less gracilized skull might have other physiological or neurological traits that would make them more resistant. (Would guess not.) But it is interesting to think of Abo or Neanderthal loaders being somehow superior, assuming they fired on target, or someone else targeted.

  50. @A123
    @John Johnson


    Why would it be for a win for Putin at the current lines?
     
    What did Russia gain:

    • Land bridge protecting Crimea
    • Dnieper access for Crimean water supply
    • ZNPP to power the 4 Oblasts joining Russia
    • No NATO ever for Ukraine

    What did Russia lose? Two countries, fully integrated and cooperating with European militaries, joined many other European countries in NATO. The change in status is more symbolic than substantial. Thus, Russia made real world physical gains on the ground while conceding symbolism. International leaders and decision makers PERCEIVE that trade = Putin Winning.

    You may of course choose to be part of a tiny minority with a different perception of the situation. However, you need to grasp that very few people share your view. And, no one in your microscopic conceptual sliver influences world events in any material way.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @John Johnson, @Mikhail, @Mr. Hack

    The war is not over yet. I suggest that you reserve your Putlerite ass licking comments for after the war. I don’t think, however, that there will be much to cheer about at that time.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Derer
    @Mr. Hack

    I suggest that you reserve your Kiev Zio ass licking comments for after the war.

  51. @Jesuitic Ziowahhabiz
    Lavrov facetiously airbrushing, with cheap paint, mind you, the pivotal Russian role in fabricating, and populating, the Rothschild neocolony in Palestine.

    Lavrov blames Anglo-Saxons for pushing Middle East towards big war
    https://tass.com/politics/1702181
     
    Trumpet's spray-on fake orange tan looks better.

    Replies: @meena

    It was the Jewish delegation from Russia that forced Herzl to abandon thoughts of any non-Palestinian locations . Chaim Weizmann also dismissed the idea of any place other than Palestine.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @meena

    "Meena" is a girl's name. Are you a girl, and if so, are you hot?

  52. @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    What's the rush?

    In the big picture the SMO is still in Phase 1 or Act I if you prefer. In this scheme of nation re-building Phase I includes all serious combat, Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Why would there be an IED phase? Russian polls show overwhelming support for the invaders and even in areas that supported Zelensky and not the pro-Russian parties. Are you suggesting that we can’t trust Russian polls?

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    Well I don’t think Putin is on your timeline.

    He has already offered to walk with the occupied oblasts and Crimea.

    The dwarf dictator is an ego maniac. He wants his victory parade before he is dead. His Totalitarian TV won’t point out that his stated goal was to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO and not lose over 200k men trying to take land they don’t need. He wants to fly his “Mission Accomplished” banner and pretend he is a great conqueror like his hero Peter.

    There is also no reason to assume that the land will remain Russian. Why does the average Russian care if the former DPR/LPR is part of Russia? Future Russians could trade it in exchange to get their Apple stores back. Americans under 30 would probably give up a state rather than lose Apple products. Putin is mortal but most of the sanctions could remain. Russia’s GDP is smaller than Texas. Our corporations don’t need their sales. The gas needs to flow but the technology sanctions could remain. Putin really didn’t think this war out and just assumed he would win.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato, up to 10 million Russians expelled or suppressed as 2nd class citizens (like in Latvia), many killed and imprisoned, WW2 Nazis marching, threats to Crimea. It would be a state of war - very expensive and with West having the upper hand.

    So they invaded. It turned out to be quite bloody, but they extinguished the worst case scenario of Ukraine in Nato. Russia knows that the pain now is less than pain - and potential catastrophe - would be if they let Kiev get away with it. They can handle Finland later - Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    Replies: @John Johnson

  53. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
    Peter Koenig writes on the brain impact from 5G.
    Early reports from scientists note sub sonic waves create the sense of ‘another.’
    What is the outcome of this information?
    Either we ban these damaging sound waves OR………….
    we will see the further research into a form of ‘brain shield’ for a select few or even “domed” cities to prevent the incursion of waves. More likely these cities will be on distant islands almost inaccessible.
    War marches on.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @katesisco

    Tin foil hats are coming back in vogue!

    Actually they are woven from nonlinear magneto-ferroic smart wire and tuned to block EM waves but amplify outgoing brain waves.

  54. @A123
    @Mr. XYZ


    It could either be a Trump win by several percentage points, a Trump blowout a la Reagan 1980, or a narrow Biden win.
     
    The race is beyond the DNC's margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

     
    https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/trump%20ahead.JPG
     

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the "underdog" candidate. The sheer, irrational zealotry of #NeverTrump extremism is propelling his popularity. The #Bidenistas are so self deluded, they cannot comprehend that their persecution campaign is backfiring and making Trump 2024 stronger.

    PEACE 😇
    ___________

    (1) https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-233/#comment-6247260

    Replies: @John Johnson

    The race is beyond the DNC’s margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

    The DNC doesn’t need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.

    They are just being nice at the moment.

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.

    It isn’t an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden. If anything the underdog is Biden. He really doesn’t belong in office or any type of managerial position. He should be at home watching TV.

    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    They aren’t going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson


    ...DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems - it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain - an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh...so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now.... It could get ugly.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @RadicalCenter

    , @A123
    @John Johnson


    The DNC doesn’t need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.
    ...
    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    LOL. -- Gov. Newsome's simping trip to China did not get him any traction. And, he is an extremist, not a moderate.

    If Biden exits, Not-The-VP Harris is in a near unstoppable position to become the DNC candidate. She polls worse than her boss for the general election. The only way to replace her with out blowing up the party is with another polarizing minority female figure. Perhaps Michelle Obama? Or, AOC?

    They aren’t going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

     

    They have no better option. They cannot suddenly declare him medically unfit now. It would open the door to asking, "When did the Veggie-in-Chief become incapacitated"? That is a discussion the DNC cannot afford to have.


    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.
     
    It isn’t an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden.
     
    Again, it is about PERCEPTION.

    Arrogant and abusive persecution of non-crimes hands Trump the "underdog" mantle and associated good will. There is no political contradiction with simultaneously being both the "poll leader" and the "perceived underdog". This will carry on regardless of who the DNC nominates.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Derer

  55. @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    Phase 2 is about political restructuring and tying up loose ends (including car bombs and IEDs) and Phase 3 is rebuilding.

    Why would there be an IED phase? Russian polls show overwhelming support for the invaders and even in areas that supported Zelensky and not the pro-Russian parties. Are you suggesting that we can't trust Russian polls?

    Based on what we have seen so far, this is my view:

    Phase 1 is 3 years.
    Phase 2 is 6 years.
    Phase 3 is 15 years (1 time constant).

    Well I don't think Putin is on your timeline.

    He has already offered to walk with the occupied oblasts and Crimea.

    The dwarf dictator is an ego maniac. He wants his victory parade before he is dead. His Totalitarian TV won't point out that his stated goal was to stop the Eastward expansion of NATO and not lose over 200k men trying to take land they don't need. He wants to fly his "Mission Accomplished" banner and pretend he is a great conqueror like his hero Peter.

    There is also no reason to assume that the land will remain Russian. Why does the average Russian care if the former DPR/LPR is part of Russia? Future Russians could trade it in exchange to get their Apple stores back. Americans under 30 would probably give up a state rather than lose Apple products. Putin is mortal but most of the sanctions could remain. Russia's GDP is smaller than Texas. Our corporations don't need their sales. The gas needs to flow but the technology sanctions could remain. Putin really didn't think this war out and just assumed he would win.

    Replies: @Beckow

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato, up to 10 million Russians expelled or suppressed as 2nd class citizens (like in Latvia), many killed and imprisoned, WW2 Nazis marching, threats to Crimea. It would be a state of war – very expensive and with West having the upper hand.

    So they invaded. It turned out to be quite bloody, but they extinguished the worst case scenario of Ukraine in Nato. Russia knows that the pain now is less than pain – and potential catastrophe – would be if they let Kiev get away with it. They can handle Finland later – Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato

    How was that the case when Ukraine hadn't applied and didn't have the support of France or Germany?

    They can handle Finland later – Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    What is a neo-con and how was their plan a success when the pro-NATO candidate lost to the neutral Zelensky in 2019?

    Replies: @Beckow

  56. @John Johnson
    @A123

    The race is beyond the DNC’s margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

    The DNC doesn't need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.

    They are just being nice at the moment.

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.

    It isn't an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden. If anything the underdog is Biden. He really doesn't belong in office or any type of managerial position. He should be at home watching TV.

    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    They aren't going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    …DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems – it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain – an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh…so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now…. It could get ugly.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Beckow


    …DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems – it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.

    You're wondering why the DNC/MSM would let a milktoast White lawyer challenge an ethnic woman. A fair question.

    The answer is that the Democrats know that Kamala is a dud. She can't even sit through an interview. The MSM wouldn't be able to provide enough damage control. They can't even rely on her in a scripted interview. Obama was good at reading his speeches that were written by a White guy. Kalama does weird stuff in interviews like giggling when asked serious questions. Or her infamous fake French accent when she was reading a statement. Everyone sees that and thinks.....WTF??

    In the primary she didn't even take her own state of California. They knew her as the overrated hack that got into politics by sucking off Willy Brown. That's not a rumor. She literally sucked off a creep twice her age to break into politics. Heck she isn't even an average politician. Just terrible. Biden and the MSM didn't do their homework.....as usual. They picked her as the nice 5% Black woman (at best) and went with it.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain – an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh…so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now

    No one has to tell her anything. She knows that she is out of her league as VP.

    Watch the border interview to see how she can't even answer basic questions.

    No one including Harris thinks running her for president is a good idea. Her job is to be "potential Black female president" for the kids until they figure out how to challenge Trump. They will absolutely take a wish-washy White lawyer over her.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Beckow

    The way to get rid of Kamala is to have Biden resign after the Dem primary elections are finished, when he or Newsom or someone else wins enough delegates for the Democrat nomination.

    In that scenario, Kamala would have no opportunity to campaign and compete in the primaries. She’d become president, briefly, but someone else could be the Dems’ presidential nominee.

    I suppose that Dem nominee could pick Kamala as VP again.

    After possibly antagonizing the 300-pound Taneequah voting bloc by shunting aside a sort-of-African VP, the Dems might want to pick another African for VP to make up for it.

    Or the Dems can go the other route and pick a Spanish-speaking Hispanic VP nominee. It’s going to happen eventually, as Africans become much less significant politically and culturally compared to Hispanics and then Asians in the USA.

    Last thought about Kamala: if the Dems want Newsom as their presidential nominee, then constitutionally they cannot have a veep nominee who is also a California resident, like Kamala.

    Replies: @A123

  57. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato, up to 10 million Russians expelled or suppressed as 2nd class citizens (like in Latvia), many killed and imprisoned, WW2 Nazis marching, threats to Crimea. It would be a state of war - very expensive and with West having the upper hand.

    So they invaded. It turned out to be quite bloody, but they extinguished the worst case scenario of Ukraine in Nato. Russia knows that the pain now is less than pain - and potential catastrophe - would be if they let Kiev get away with it. They can handle Finland later - Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    Replies: @John Johnson

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato

    How was that the case when Ukraine hadn’t applied and didn’t have the support of France or Germany?

    They can handle Finland later – Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    What is a neo-con and how was their plan a success when the pro-NATO candidate lost to the neutral Zelensky in 2019?

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that's your issue. It doesn't change anything.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him - it is not so hard to understand. If you don't know what a "neo-con" is, google it...


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    Replies: @QCIC, @John Johnson

  58. @Wokechoke
    @John Johnson

    Rogue One and Han Solo were in fact very good films.

    It’s a great pity that George Lucas didn’t have those two as the prequels to Star Wars: New Hope.

    Loosely enough based on the Space Opera conception but gave a little background to Han as a young criminal and the Rebels as an accidental event.


    It’s a pity about the ponderously made 1,2,3.

    Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan. Then we see him rebuilt/born as Vader doing something mean like bombard a sand dune slum while looking for his own children. Make it Spicy and have the Twins be the result of a rape by Anakin.

    The films after meh. Waste of time. The identity of the Emperor was a huge waste of time.

    Replies: @Sher Singh, @John Johnson, @Societal Spectacle

    “Instead perhaps the first film should have started where a mysteriously enraged Anakin kills all the child Jedi and has a duel with Obi Wan.”

    In his perceived inability to save his mother, he first killed a camp of Tusken Raiders. As you described, his rage further devolved into the killings of the Jedi younglings. Developmentally, he best fits into Jane Loevinger’s “self-protective” stage of ego development in which he is need of control to the point of dictating his own sense of moral justice. He in effect emerged as an injustice collector.

    In 1927 Andrew Kehoe, the orchestrator of the Bath school bombing that killed 45 people including 38 children did not leave a note, but he left a sign on his property stating, “Criminals are made, not born.” Kehoe’s mother died while he had been away to college and then working.

    “Clouded this boy’s future is,” Yoda. This statement in review adds to the emergence of his personality throughout the story arc.

  59. @Beckow
    @John Johnson


    ...DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems - it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain - an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh...so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now.... It could get ugly.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @RadicalCenter

    …DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems – it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.

    You’re wondering why the DNC/MSM would let a milktoast White lawyer challenge an ethnic woman. A fair question.

    The answer is that the Democrats know that Kamala is a dud. She can’t even sit through an interview. The MSM wouldn’t be able to provide enough damage control. They can’t even rely on her in a scripted interview. Obama was good at reading his speeches that were written by a White guy. Kalama does weird stuff in interviews like giggling when asked serious questions. Or her infamous fake French accent when she was reading a statement. Everyone sees that and thinks…..WTF??

    In the primary she didn’t even take her own state of California. They knew her as the overrated hack that got into politics by sucking off Willy Brown. That’s not a rumor. She literally sucked off a creep twice her age to break into politics. Heck she isn’t even an average politician. Just terrible. Biden and the MSM didn’t do their homework…..as usual. They picked her as the nice 5% Black woman (at best) and went with it.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain – an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh…so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now

    No one has to tell her anything. She knows that she is out of her league as VP.

    Watch the border interview to see how she can’t even answer basic questions.

    No one including Harris thinks running her for president is a good idea. Her job is to be “potential Black female president” for the kids until they figure out how to challenge Trump. They will absolutely take a wish-washy White lawyer over her.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You make a strong case about Kamala, sure, but who is going to tell her and her insane ethno-supporters? They may not take kindly to reality...:)


    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.
     
    Really? To start with, you would like Trump to be barred. It is not an open system - the amount of permissions needed is very high. Don't pretend - everyone knows it is a managed process, more so than in other Western countries where there are fewer barriers. You can justify it by needs of a large unwieldy country, but don't preach to us.

    The process is unlike in many other countries open to cheating - no real checks, very sloppy data, remote voting. Check out how it is done in UK: same night, simple counting, no fuss and almost no opportunity for mischief.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  60. @John Johnson
    @A123

    The race is beyond the DNC’s margin to cheat. So, only the first two options are possible. As I pointed out earlier (1), Trump has massive strength with moderate & independent voters that specifically impacts swing states.

    The DNC doesn't need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.

    They are just being nice at the moment.

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.

    It isn't an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden. If anything the underdog is Biden. He really doesn't belong in office or any type of managerial position. He should be at home watching TV.

    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    They aren't going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    The DNC doesn’t need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.

    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.

    LOL. — Gov. Newsome’s simping trip to China did not get him any traction. And, he is an extremist, not a moderate.

    If Biden exits, Not-The-VP Harris is in a near unstoppable position to become the DNC candidate. She polls worse than her boss for the general election. The only way to replace her with out blowing up the party is with another polarizing minority female figure. Perhaps Michelle Obama? Or, AOC?

    They aren’t going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

    They have no better option. They cannot suddenly declare him medically unfit now. It would open the door to asking, “When did the Veggie-in-Chief become incapacitated”? That is a discussion the DNC cannot afford to have.

    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.

    It isn’t an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden.

    Again, it is about PERCEPTION.

    Arrogant and abusive persecution of non-crimes hands Trump the “underdog” mantle and associated good will. There is no political contradiction with simultaneously being both the “poll leader” and the “perceived underdog”. This will carry on regardless of who the DNC nominates.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Derer
    @A123

    Harris and Michelle Obama are unelectable, the affirmative action presidency was fulfilled by Hussein Obama and that will apply for couple of generations.

    Replies: @Beckow

  61. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    For Russia the alternative was a hostile, well armed Ukraine in Nato

    How was that the case when Ukraine hadn't applied and didn't have the support of France or Germany?

    They can handle Finland later – Finns are nowhere as stupid as the Ukies turned out to be.

    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?

    Because of the stupid neo-con plan to move Nato to Ukraine and even more stupid Ukie emotional immaturity (volunteering to be the cannon fodder) we are all worse off. Most of all Ukraine. What have we learned?

    What is a neo-con and how was their plan a success when the pro-NATO candidate lost to the neutral Zelensky in 2019?

    Replies: @Beckow

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand. If you don’t know what a “neo-con” is, google it…

    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?

    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @Beckow

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    "Finland in NATO: Last in, first out."
    "Easy come, easy go."

    These headlines write themselves. "She's cute, but not real bright." (Marin).

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Everyone can see that you are unable to answer very basic questions about NATO. It's pretty much expected at this point. You make a statement about NATO or Ukraine and then change then subject when asked to elaborate.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand.

    Well then explain it for us since Zelensky was elected in 2019 and never initiated the NATO application process.

    Do tell what he did in that short period to betray his people.

    You clearly spent too much time in a pro-Putin bubble and didn't realize that most of the pro-Putin bloggers are just plain full of shit. That is what happens when you try to defend the credibility of a mass murdering dwarf who lied to the UN about it being a "training exercise" and swore that he would never invade. He also pledged that DPR/LPR would become Republics which never happened. Putin recently claimed that his Jewish chef turned private warlord died after getting high on cocaine and playing with hand grenades. Do you believe him?

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin. They eventually disappoint everyone and that includes their biggest defenders. They have an unchangeable hatred of the world and everyone in it. In fact such bitter men are normally contemptuous of their own defenders. They view them as weak sycophants.

    Former Putin fan and DPR leader Igor Girkin has stated that Donbas separatism was never a popular movement and only occurred because of Russian backing. Of course we won't hear much from Girkin at this point. Putin has him in a cage.

    But you for some reason seem to think it is a good idea to keep defending the rodent king and his endless lies.


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    You are suggesting that Russia won't sell them oil if they are in NATO?

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices.

    Or are you talking about another export like beets or ????? Russia is a gas station. No one wants Russian cars or even bicycles. Their military exports are about to drop while US Himars is backordered for over 10 years. Putin is a dream come true for US military companies. Way to go dwarf.

    Replies: @Sean, @Sean, @Beckow

  62. One more note about Kamala is that she was single until 50.

    This is a huge red flag in women that aren’t obese.

    It most likely means that no one can stand her. She is wealthy which means she couldn’t even find an upper class brat to use her for sex.

    She married a pet husband in 2014 for her political image.

    When a thin woman is rejected by men it usually follows that women hate her even more. It means her personality is mind-blowingly awful.

  63. @John Johnson
    @Beckow


    …DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    How are they going to pull that off? I am really curious, given the Kamala thing, ethnic politics, the wishy-washy nature of all moderate White Dems – it will not be easy. They are running out of time.

    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.

    You're wondering why the DNC/MSM would let a milktoast White lawyer challenge an ethnic woman. A fair question.

    The answer is that the Democrats know that Kamala is a dud. She can't even sit through an interview. The MSM wouldn't be able to provide enough damage control. They can't even rely on her in a scripted interview. Obama was good at reading his speeches that were written by a White guy. Kalama does weird stuff in interviews like giggling when asked serious questions. Or her infamous fake French accent when she was reading a statement. Everyone sees that and thinks.....WTF??

    In the primary she didn't even take her own state of California. They knew her as the overrated hack that got into politics by sucking off Willy Brown. That's not a rumor. She literally sucked off a creep twice her age to break into politics. Heck she isn't even an average politician. Just terrible. Biden and the MSM didn't do their homework.....as usual. They picked her as the nice 5% Black woman (at best) and went with it.

    Biden in 2020, his age and obvious incapacity, was a Faustian bargain – an act of desperation. The time has come to pay up, Mephisto is at the door and wants his pound of flesh…so who will tell the Indian woman that her time is up, you know, mulatta served it purpose, mulatta can go now

    No one has to tell her anything. She knows that she is out of her league as VP.

    Watch the border interview to see how she can't even answer basic questions.

    No one including Harris thinks running her for president is a good idea. Her job is to be "potential Black female president" for the kids until they figure out how to challenge Trump. They will absolutely take a wish-washy White lawyer over her.

    Replies: @Beckow

    You make a strong case about Kamala, sure, but who is going to tell her and her insane ethno-supporters? They may not take kindly to reality…:)

    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.

    Really? To start with, you would like Trump to be barred. It is not an open system – the amount of permissions needed is very high. Don’t pretend – everyone knows it is a managed process, more so than in other Western countries where there are fewer barriers. You can justify it by needs of a large unwieldy country, but don’t preach to us.

    The process is unlike in many other countries open to cheating – no real checks, very sloppy data, remote voting. Check out how it is done in UK: same night, simple counting, no fuss and almost no opportunity for mischief.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You make a strong case about Kamala, sure, but who is going to tell her and her insane ethno-supporters? They may not take kindly to reality…:)

    She actually doesn't have that many supporters.

    Hillary was touring colleges at this point. Kamala is kept in a cage. They try to keep the camera off of her. Just search the news feeds to see how rarely they interview her. Everyone knows.

    Really? To start with, you would like Trump to be barred.

    Yes and no. I want Trump to quit because Biden's best hope is for him to run. My worst case scenario is a Harris presidency. If Biden somehow wins I'm not convinced he has the guts to ask Harris to leave. In fact I don't really care if we get a milktoast boring lawyer from either party if it means Harris is out.

    As for restrictions I don't think felons should be allowed to run but that isn't the law. Trump doesn't have a felony (yet) and I fully support giving him a fair trial. But I don't think he has much of a chance. The judge looks ready to charge him over Trump Fraud U. Then there are the classified documents. I just don't see how he can escape all these charges. He really messed up with the documents. All he had to do was give them back when they asked for them. The guy is a silver spoon brat that can be irrationally stubborn. I would take him over most US politicians but I'm not in denial of his character or lack of it. He disappointed me on the border but he fulfilled job #1 which was keeping out Hillary.

    It is not an open system – the amount of permissions needed is very high. Don’t pretend – everyone knows it is a managed process, more so than in other Western countries where there are fewer barriers.

    It is very much an open system as seen by third party candidates. The vote sucking libertarian ran in the last election without permission and took votes away from Trump. RFK is hated by the Democrats and plans to run as an independent. The Democrats most likely lost the Bush II election because of Nader's Green Party run.

    The process is unlike in many other countries open to cheating – no real checks, very sloppy data, remote voting.

    There is widespread belief among the MAGA crowd that Trump lost to cheating and yet exit polls matched the results. He lost independent Whites while gaining Hispanics. If 1 million more White men voted then we wouldn't have doofy mcgoo. Millions of Whites don't even bother voting. It's so easy with absentee ballots but I guess they have more important things to do like watch 3-4 hours of television.

  64. Guardian business:

    German industrial production dropped by 1.4% month-on-month in September, following a 0.1% drop in August. On an annual basis, German industrial output was down -3.7% year-on-year.

    “There is no end in sight for the weakness in German industry, which has become more broad-based in Q3. Hard to pick out any positives. German industrial production now a staggering 17% below the trend from 2010s, meaning over a hundred billion Euros in lost output.”

    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.

    “Insolvencies have risen in Germany – in another sign that Europe’s largest economy is struggling. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) has reported that 1,037 partnerships and corporations in Germany fell into insolvency in October – 44% more than a year ago, and 2% more than in September.”

    It’s an absolute tragedy that “we” trashed the most – indeed the only – truly productive economy in Europe.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
    • Replies: @A123
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.
     
    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed? Nope. Thus, that event had no direct impact on activity. The German Greens destroyed the German productivity when they kept NS2 out of service. If it was intact & unused today, the economy would be identical.

    Germany needs AfD in government, but it may already be too late.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.
     
    I think it was outrageous and a serious German government would punish the perpetrators, but on the other hand, the gas shipments had already been stopped by Russia and it's difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine. The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted. It's the price German society has to pay for not having violently suppressed the Greens and the anti-nuclear movement back in the 1980s.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  65. @Greasy William
    Bibi just announced that Israel will be occupying Gaza permanently after the ground invasion has been completed. It's Bibi, so he'll walk it back but that he's saying it shows that the government and IDF have already examined all options and realized that they have no choice.

    Biden is in horrendous electoral shape. He appears weak and feckless to swing voters, no Muslim will vote for him, centrist Dems are being turned off by the increasing antisemitism within the Democratic party and black and Latino voters are frustrated by Dems continuing to put the interest of immigrants over their own.

    Not to mention the economy sucks and is getting worse. If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    Gaza should be cleaned up in the next few months after which things will temporarily calm down. Russia is clearly preparing to move on Israel but likely needs a couple more years to properly prepare for an invasion.

    Replies: @QCIC, @Mr. XYZ, @AnonfromTN

    If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.

    Are you really so naïve, or just pretend? In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned. It’s the democracy, stupid! Only vile dictators care what the people in their countries think.

    • Replies: @A123
    @AnonfromTN


    In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned.
     
    Voting helps -- the wider the margin, the harder it is for the other side to cheat. However, that is only the first step. In 2020 the irregularities were entirely one sided, unprecedented in scope, and the judiciary refused serious review.

    The good news this cycle is that MAGA will go toe-to-toe with the DNC in terms of Fultoning and Harvesting. Having set the precedent "every ballot must be counted" serious MAGA supporters can drive Trump over the line by ensuring the maximum number of ballots are for Trump. The precedents set in 2020 will effectively prevent judicial review.

    Democracy should not work this way. But at least for the next couple of decades, It is what it is.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AnonfromTN

    Trump does have an outside chance. The Be Powers are not a monolith. There are factions. If he does come out on top in the selection process he will be just as owned as Biden--it will just he a different Deep State faction that owns him. Only a demented megalomaniac could want the job.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  66. @YetAnotherAnon
    Guardian business:

    German industrial production dropped by 1.4% month-on-month in September, following a 0.1% drop in August. On an annual basis, German industrial output was down -3.7% year-on-year.

    "There is no end in sight for the weakness in German industry, which has become more broad-based in Q3. Hard to pick out any positives. German industrial production now a staggering 17% below the trend from 2010s, meaning over a hundred billion Euros in lost output."

     

    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.

    "Insolvencies have risen in Germany – in another sign that Europe’s largest economy is struggling. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) has reported that 1,037 partnerships and corporations in Germany fell into insolvency in October – 44% more than a year ago, and 2% more than in September."
     
    It's an absolute tragedy that "we" trashed the most - indeed the only - truly productive economy in Europe.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader

    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.

    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed? Nope. Thus, that event had no direct impact on activity. The German Greens destroyed the German productivity when they kept NS2 out of service. If it was intact & unused today, the economy would be identical.

    Germany needs AfD in government, but it may already be too late.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @A123


    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed?
     
    Failed? Good one, where did they teach you to use synonyms?

    NS1 was in service and is not anymore...and shipments via Poland were stopped. EU countries now buy a lot more Russian LNG gas, it is more expensive, but why not?

    What happened with blowing up NS1-2 is simple: prices went up, large consumers like German mfg can't afford it and be competitive, and since LNG gas is a commodity more expensive it is more every producer makes - that includes Russia. Their $5 billion investment in NS2 has been paid for with higher prices. German-Dutch-Austrian $5 billion investment has not.

    That's the accounting - boring, but true. (I think Herr Scholz is an accountant.)

    Replies: @A123

  67. German_reader says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    Guardian business:

    German industrial production dropped by 1.4% month-on-month in September, following a 0.1% drop in August. On an annual basis, German industrial output was down -3.7% year-on-year.

    "There is no end in sight for the weakness in German industry, which has become more broad-based in Q3. Hard to pick out any positives. German industrial production now a staggering 17% below the trend from 2010s, meaning over a hundred billion Euros in lost output."

     

    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.

    "Insolvencies have risen in Germany – in another sign that Europe’s largest economy is struggling. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) has reported that 1,037 partnerships and corporations in Germany fell into insolvency in October – 44% more than a year ago, and 2% more than in September."
     
    It's an absolute tragedy that "we" trashed the most - indeed the only - truly productive economy in Europe.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader

    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.

    I think it was outrageous and a serious German government would punish the perpetrators, but on the other hand, the gas shipments had already been stopped by Russia and it’s difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine. The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted. It’s the price German society has to pay for not having violently suppressed the Greens and the anti-nuclear movement back in the 1980s.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    "The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted."

    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO. Russo-German co-operation should be seen as a good thing, not a bad one.

    "it’s difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine"

    Did Germany ban American and British imports in 2003 when the latter invaded Iraq?

    Given that Germany had no treaty obligations to Ukraine, and indeed that Ukraine have (and are still AFAIK) transiting Russian gas to Poland and Hungary, and Russia are still paying transit fees, there's no reason why they shouldn't have resumed.

    The Greens...I see Germany has reopened lignite power stations this autumn.

    https://www.powermag.com/germany-restarts-coal-fired-generation-to-support-winter-power-supply/

    What was the Green Party's reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?

    Replies: @German_reader

  68. @AnonfromTN
    @Greasy William


    If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    Are you really so naïve, or just pretend? In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned. It’s the democracy, stupid! Only vile dictators care what the people in their countries think.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard

    In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned.

    Voting helps — the wider the margin, the harder it is for the other side to cheat. However, that is only the first step. In 2020 the irregularities were entirely one sided, unprecedented in scope, and the judiciary refused serious review.

    The good news this cycle is that MAGA will go toe-to-toe with the DNC in terms of Fultoning and Harvesting. Having set the precedent “every ballot must be counted” serious MAGA supporters can drive Trump over the line by ensuring the maximum number of ballots are for Trump. The precedents set in 2020 will effectively prevent judicial review.

    Democracy should not work this way. But at least for the next couple of decades, It is what it is.

    PEACE 😇

  69. @AnonfromTN
    @Greasy William


    If the election were held today, Trump would win by 4 points. By the time the actual election gets here, I think Biden will lose by 7 or 8. In fact, things will be so terrible by Nov 24 that I think that 10 points is a possibility. If even my family are growing shaky on Biden, that tells you a lot.
     
    Are you really so naïve, or just pretend? In the age of massive voting fraud the opinions of the people, as well as their votes, don’t matter. Serious people will ensure that whoever they want wins, voters be damned. It’s the democracy, stupid! Only vile dictators care what the people in their countries think.

    Replies: @A123, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Trump does have an outside chance. The Be Powers are not a monolith. There are factions. If he does come out on top in the selection process he will be just as owned as Biden–it will just he a different Deep State faction that owns him. Only a demented megalomaniac could want the job.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Only a demented megalomaniac could want the job.
     
    We had two megalomaniacs in 2020. Both were (and still are) stupid, but only one was demented. Then again, as American joke puts it, “Biden was always so dumb, that when he got demented, his family didn’t even notice”.
  70. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.
     
    I think it was outrageous and a serious German government would punish the perpetrators, but on the other hand, the gas shipments had already been stopped by Russia and it's difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine. The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted. It's the price German society has to pay for not having violently suppressed the Greens and the anti-nuclear movement back in the 1980s.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted.”

    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO. Russo-German co-operation should be seen as a good thing, not a bad one.

    “it’s difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine”

    Did Germany ban American and British imports in 2003 when the latter invaded Iraq?

    Given that Germany had no treaty obligations to Ukraine, and indeed that Ukraine have (and are still AFAIK) transiting Russian gas to Poland and Hungary, and Russia are still paying transit fees, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t have resumed.

    The Greens…I see Germany has reopened lignite power stations this autumn.

    https://www.powermag.com/germany-restarts-coal-fired-generation-to-support-winter-power-supply/

    What was the Green Party’s reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO.
     
    Well yes, obviously I wish it were different, and I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown), but I'm not sure there's much point to crying over it now. The constraints on Germany are what they are, not much room for an independent policy after Russia's invasion. Besides, Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn't have been in Germany's interests either.
    But anyway, the problems with Germany and the evil scum that is ruling the country are much more fundamental than anything about NS2.

    What was the Green Party’s reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?
     
    They insisted on closing down the remaining nuclear power stations earlier this year. Which tells one everything one needs to know about how serious they actually are about acting against climate change. It's just a pretext for their authoritarian transformation agenda.

    Replies: @Mikel, @YetAnotherAnon

  71. @A123
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It sure was a good idea blowing up NS2.
     
    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed? Nope. Thus, that event had no direct impact on activity. The German Greens destroyed the German productivity when they kept NS2 out of service. If it was intact & unused today, the economy would be identical.

    Germany needs AfD in government, but it may already be too late.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow

    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed?

    Failed? Good one, where did they teach you to use synonyms?

    NS1 was in service and is not anymore…and shipments via Poland were stopped. EU countries now buy a lot more Russian LNG gas, it is more expensive, but why not?

    What happened with blowing up NS1-2 is simple: prices went up, large consumers like German mfg can’t afford it and be competitive, and since LNG gas is a commodity more expensive it is more every producer makes – that includes Russia. Their $5 billion investment in NS2 has been paid for with higher prices. German-Dutch-Austrian $5 billion investment has not.

    That’s the accounting – boring, but true. (I think Herr Scholz is an accountant.)

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow



    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed?

     

    Failed? Good one, where did they teach you to use synonyms?
     
    The vastly most likely explanation is an industrial accident. Failed is consistent terminology for an incident involving operator error. Do you really want to go through the hydrate slug explanation again?

     
    https://i1.wp.com/www.arab-oil-naturalgas.com/wp-content/uploads/Hydrate.jpg
     

    If you insist on an unlikely conspiracy theory, you have to contend with three factors not found in military actions:

    -1- 50 miles of physical separation
    -2- Events 17 hours apart
    -3- Only 3 out of 4 tubes hit

    Nation level actors have skills and options to avoid these problems. Not-The-President Biden's administration leaks like a sieve. Thus, there is no reason to believe the U.S. was involved or had advance knowledge. Russia also would have been more competent if it was their plan.

    If it was clumsy sabotage -- That points to rogue operators, such as Ukrainian irregulars or German Antifa/Greens. If they exist, then tracking them down is highly desirable. Especially as they would likely be German or Ukrainian citizens.

    PEACE 😇
  72. German_reader says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    "The disastrous energy policy which to a large extent created the reliance on Russian gas was also self-inflicted."

    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO. Russo-German co-operation should be seen as a good thing, not a bad one.

    "it’s difficult to see how they could have been resumed given the war in Ukraine"

    Did Germany ban American and British imports in 2003 when the latter invaded Iraq?

    Given that Germany had no treaty obligations to Ukraine, and indeed that Ukraine have (and are still AFAIK) transiting Russian gas to Poland and Hungary, and Russia are still paying transit fees, there's no reason why they shouldn't have resumed.

    The Greens...I see Germany has reopened lignite power stations this autumn.

    https://www.powermag.com/germany-restarts-coal-fired-generation-to-support-winter-power-supply/

    What was the Green Party's reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?

    Replies: @German_reader

    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO.

    Well yes, obviously I wish it were different, and I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown), but I’m not sure there’s much point to crying over it now. The constraints on Germany are what they are, not much room for an independent policy after Russia’s invasion. Besides, Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn’t have been in Germany’s interests either.
    But anyway, the problems with Germany and the evil scum that is ruling the country are much more fundamental than anything about NS2.

    What was the Green Party’s reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?

    They insisted on closing down the remaining nuclear power stations earlier this year. Which tells one everything one needs to know about how serious they actually are about acting against climate change. It’s just a pretext for their authoritarian transformation agenda.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @German_reader


    Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn’t have been in Germany’s interests either.
     
    How would have that affected Germany's interests?

    I'm not saying that a big European country gobbling up a smaller country would have been a good thing from any perspective but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine, the trade volume is not very big and Ukraine has been some sort of Russian satellite for most of its independence. In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev. So it's not clear how returning to the historical status quo of a Russia-aligned Ukraine would have much affected the rest of Europe.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    I think we're generally in agreement here, except perhaps for


    "I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown)"
     
    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea, but otherwise Russia were content to negotiate for the next 8 years over the status of the Russian population of Donbass and Luhansk - not exactly precipitate action. They were quite happy with the regional autonomy promised by Minsk II.

    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.

    They must have been pleased when Zelensky was elected on an explicit platform of improving relations with Russia, and deeply disillusioned when his policy was the precise opposite.

    Replies: @German_reader, @John Johnson

  73. @John Johnson
    @AP

    I haven’t watched any of the TV shows because I don’t have Disney + and I couldn’t be bothered to pay for them or try to watch them illegally.

    Well at $14 it is the price of a movie ticket and worth it for a few months to stream everything. Mandalorian alone is worth the price.

    I would also check out the Clone Wars movie. Even though it is animated it is still better than the newer stuff.

    They also have some interesting classic stuff. Old Mickey cartoons and stuff.

    Can't seem to find Song of the South though. I'll write Kathleen Kennedy and ask about it.

    Replies: @songbird

    Can’t seem to find Song of the South though.

    I encourage people to watch Song of the South because it was super-woke for the day.

    [MORE]

    They made sure to make it post-bellum because ante-bellum was taboo. The blacks were basically without a flaw (except lack of education), and even numinous, whereas many white characters had flaws, especially the poor boys.

    It is shocking and eye-opening to see it and understand that they essentially banned this film in the US, despite it having a very idealized depiction. I think it has a much broader significance for society, by extrapolation.
    _______
    iIRC, Chinese online were complaining about the diversity in Rogue One.

    They had that same cliche, an orphan or pseudo-orphan. Kind of a girl power film, when the girl was like 30 or something and should have been married by then before she becomes a leftover woman.

    Vader’s voice sounded very decrepit.

  74. @Beckow
    @A123


    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed?
     
    Failed? Good one, where did they teach you to use synonyms?

    NS1 was in service and is not anymore...and shipments via Poland were stopped. EU countries now buy a lot more Russian LNG gas, it is more expensive, but why not?

    What happened with blowing up NS1-2 is simple: prices went up, large consumers like German mfg can't afford it and be competitive, and since LNG gas is a commodity more expensive it is more every producer makes - that includes Russia. Their $5 billion investment in NS2 has been paid for with higher prices. German-Dutch-Austrian $5 billion investment has not.

    That's the accounting - boring, but true. (I think Herr Scholz is an accountant.)

    Replies: @A123

    Was NS2 in service delivering gas when it failed?

    Failed? Good one, where did they teach you to use synonyms?

    The vastly most likely explanation is an industrial accident. Failed is consistent terminology for an incident involving operator error. Do you really want to go through the hydrate slug explanation again?

     

     

    If you insist on an unlikely conspiracy theory, you have to contend with three factors not found in military actions:

    -1- 50 miles of physical separation
    -2- Events 17 hours apart
    -3- Only 3 out of 4 tubes hit

    Nation level actors have skills and options to avoid these problems. Not-The-President Biden’s administration leaks like a sieve. Thus, there is no reason to believe the U.S. was involved or had advance knowledge. Russia also would have been more competent if it was their plan.

    If it was clumsy sabotage — That points to rogue operators, such as Ukrainian irregulars or German Antifa/Greens. If they exist, then tracking them down is highly desirable. Especially as they would likely be German or Ukrainian citizens.

    PEACE 😇

  75. Translation, by simplicius76:

    It is true that a significant share of responsibility for the faith of the average citizen in our quick and beautiful victory lies with me personally.

    But I am not running away from this responsibility.

    I created the illusion at that time so that we could survive.

    Today I am destroying it so that we can survive further.

    My very loose translation of that is, “if we don’t negotiate soon, there won’t be anything – or more importantly anyone – left to negotiate about“.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @YetAnotherAnon


    “if we don’t negotiate soon, there won’t be anything – or more importantly anyone – left to negotiate about“.
     
    Negotiations were on the cards more than a year ago. As they say in Russia, that train has already left the station.

    As time clearly works for Russia, the only thing it will negotiate today is unconditional surrender of Kiev regime. Clown-in-chief won’t be around to sign this surrender, might not even be alive by the time it is signed. After all, it was not Hitler who signed unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945.
  76. @YetAnotherAnon
    https://twitter.com/arestovych/status/1720781575506301160

    Translation, by simplicius76:

    It is true that a significant share of responsibility for the faith of the average citizen in our quick and beautiful victory lies with me personally.

    But I am not running away from this responsibility.

    I created the illusion at that time so that we could survive.

    Today I am destroying it so that we can survive further.
     
    My very loose translation of that is, "if we don't negotiate soon, there won't be anything - or more importantly anyone - left to negotiate about".

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    “if we don’t negotiate soon, there won’t be anything – or more importantly anyone – left to negotiate about“.

    Negotiations were on the cards more than a year ago. As they say in Russia, that train has already left the station.

    As time clearly works for Russia, the only thing it will negotiate today is unconditional surrender of Kiev regime. Clown-in-chief won’t be around to sign this surrender, might not even be alive by the time it is signed. After all, it was not Hitler who signed unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  77. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO.
     
    Well yes, obviously I wish it were different, and I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown), but I'm not sure there's much point to crying over it now. The constraints on Germany are what they are, not much room for an independent policy after Russia's invasion. Besides, Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn't have been in Germany's interests either.
    But anyway, the problems with Germany and the evil scum that is ruling the country are much more fundamental than anything about NS2.

    What was the Green Party’s reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?
     
    They insisted on closing down the remaining nuclear power stations earlier this year. Which tells one everything one needs to know about how serious they actually are about acting against climate change. It's just a pretext for their authoritarian transformation agenda.

    Replies: @Mikel, @YetAnotherAnon

    Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn’t have been in Germany’s interests either.

    How would have that affected Germany’s interests?

    I’m not saying that a big European country gobbling up a smaller country would have been a good thing from any perspective but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine, the trade volume is not very big and Ukraine has been some sort of Russian satellite for most of its independence. In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev. So it’s not clear how returning to the historical status quo of a Russia-aligned Ukraine would have much affected the rest of Europe.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mikel


    but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine
     
    The EU has though. Sure, I guess you could make an argument that Belarus is now essentially a Russian satellite state and we can live with it, so what if Putin had reduced Ukraine to the same status in a "police action" according to the old Warsaw pact playbook (as he probably imagined when he gave the order for the invasion in February 2022). But there probably would have been a lot of negative repercussions.
    Of course the end result of what has actually happened might be even worse. Given the recent string of critical articles in fairly mainstream media and Arestovych's utterances it looks like Ukraine's situation might be fairly precarious. Maybe even a sudden collapse is possible. And who knows what will happen then. There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects. Which might not be likely. But a victorious Russia with a battle-hardened army on NATO's borders isn't that appealing a prospect in any case (even if I think all these claims "Putin is going to invade the Baltics or Poland next" are just propaganda).

    In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev.
     
    Sure, it was a disastrous idea to attempt removing all Russian influence from Ukraine. The very idea of integrating Ukraine into an anti-Russian alliance was total madness.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Sean

  78. @German_reader
    Interesting story about the effects of firing large numbers of artillery shells on the battery crews:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
    Apparently the blasts can cause serious brain damage.

    Replies: @songbird

    During WWI, the velocity of the gas ejected from the back of guns was deadly to anyone standing behind them.

    I wonder whether it is mainly some fraction of people who are susceptible – I believe football is like that.

    And whether someone with a less gracilized skull might have other physiological or neurological traits that would make them more resistant. (Would guess not.) But it is interesting to think of Abo or Neanderthal loaders being somehow superior, assuming they fired on target, or someone else targeted.

  79. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @German_reader


    Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn’t have been in Germany’s interests either.
     
    How would have that affected Germany's interests?

    I'm not saying that a big European country gobbling up a smaller country would have been a good thing from any perspective but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine, the trade volume is not very big and Ukraine has been some sort of Russian satellite for most of its independence. In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev. So it's not clear how returning to the historical status quo of a Russia-aligned Ukraine would have much affected the rest of Europe.

    Replies: @German_reader

    but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine

    The EU has though. Sure, I guess you could make an argument that Belarus is now essentially a Russian satellite state and we can live with it, so what if Putin had reduced Ukraine to the same status in a “police action” according to the old Warsaw pact playbook (as he probably imagined when he gave the order for the invasion in February 2022). But there probably would have been a lot of negative repercussions.
    Of course the end result of what has actually happened might be even worse. Given the recent string of critical articles in fairly mainstream media and Arestovych’s utterances it looks like Ukraine’s situation might be fairly precarious. Maybe even a sudden collapse is possible. And who knows what will happen then. There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects. Which might not be likely. But a victorious Russia with a battle-hardened army on NATO’s borders isn’t that appealing a prospect in any case (even if I think all these claims “Putin is going to invade the Baltics or Poland next” are just propaganda).

    In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev.

    Sure, it was a disastrous idea to attempt removing all Russian influence from Ukraine. The very idea of integrating Ukraine into an anti-Russian alliance was total madness.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @German_reader


    There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects.
     
    I don't think those calls would be listened to. I don't know what's happened exactly, I guess there is a lot I still need to learn about my new country, but Ukraine is pretty much forgotten and has almost become a toxic, divisive issue politically.

    Conservative political commentators in the US are totally in overdrive about support for Israel. The lack of nuance is astonishing and hard to believe. I doubt Israelis themselves are so unanimous on their support for the war in Gaza. This morning I was listening to one of these commentators on the radio, not sure who it was, who accused people who oppose the Gaza bombings of being "anti-Semitic", a view held by everyone in the studio with him. But at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    When it comes to foreign matters, the level of the public discourse in the US is quite low. It's typically an all-or-nothing approach. I don't doubt there's still a lot of Ukraine hawks in DC but their influence is clearly on the wane, with many conservatives having decided to ditch Ukraine. The fact that Biden hasn't managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn't invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much but this is the reality in the US right now, that cannot be ignored. I guess Zelensky was right that the Gaza war is very bad news for Ukraine. However, I don't think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse, as their difficulties in Avdiivka show. And one shouldn't forget that they failed to take Kiev, Chenihiv and Sumy when Ukraine had only received minimal help from the West.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123, @Dmitry

    , @Sean
    @German_reader


    Arestovych’s utterances
     
    The key to understanding what is going on is not political or psychological but practical military science; Valery Zaluzhny's recent piece in which he says the technology has got beyond the standard military doctrine of mobile warfare in all armies, because surveillance can see everything the opponent does and target them in real time. In addition minefields can be laid and re-laid from the drones and artillery cutting off any breakthrough. Swift advances will remain impossible until some new technology gives the offence its edge back. And--rely on it--you will have a long wait for that.
  80. Oleksander Rostpuko.

  81. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    It was only disastrous because Germany was so tied to the US and NATO.
     
    Well yes, obviously I wish it were different, and I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown), but I'm not sure there's much point to crying over it now. The constraints on Germany are what they are, not much room for an independent policy after Russia's invasion. Besides, Russia turning all of Ukraine into a satellite state wouldn't have been in Germany's interests either.
    But anyway, the problems with Germany and the evil scum that is ruling the country are much more fundamental than anything about NS2.

    What was the Green Party’s reaction to that, given that brown coal is about as dirty as coal can be?
     
    They insisted on closing down the remaining nuclear power stations earlier this year. Which tells one everything one needs to know about how serious they actually are about acting against climate change. It's just a pretext for their authoritarian transformation agenda.

    Replies: @Mikel, @YetAnotherAnon

    I think we’re generally in agreement here, except perhaps for

    “I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown)”

    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea, but otherwise Russia were content to negotiate for the next 8 years over the status of the Russian population of Donbass and Luhansk – not exactly precipitate action. They were quite happy with the regional autonomy promised by Minsk II.

    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.

    They must have been pleased when Zelensky was elected on an explicit platform of improving relations with Russia, and deeply disillusioned when his policy was the precise opposite.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.
     
    That was essentially the point I wanted to make. Of course we can't know exactly what caused Putin's decision for the invasion, but something must have changed in 2021. The strategic partnership agreement between the US and Ukraine in September 2021 was probably an important factor, as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    , @John Johnson
    @YetAnotherAnon

    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea

    How exactly was it a coup when all parties wanted Yanukovych removed? Including his own pro-Russian party?

    Are you suggesting he was innocent and was unjustly accused of corruption? Do you believe that his million dollar mansion was actually purchased with legal funds? Even though the doors alone cost more than his annual salary?

    Yanukovych's mansion now a museum of corruption
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezhyhirya_Residence

  82. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You make a strong case about Kamala, sure, but who is going to tell her and her insane ethno-supporters? They may not take kindly to reality...:)


    Unlike Russia we have an open election. Anyone can run.
     
    Really? To start with, you would like Trump to be barred. It is not an open system - the amount of permissions needed is very high. Don't pretend - everyone knows it is a managed process, more so than in other Western countries where there are fewer barriers. You can justify it by needs of a large unwieldy country, but don't preach to us.

    The process is unlike in many other countries open to cheating - no real checks, very sloppy data, remote voting. Check out how it is done in UK: same night, simple counting, no fuss and almost no opportunity for mischief.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    You make a strong case about Kamala, sure, but who is going to tell her and her insane ethno-supporters? They may not take kindly to reality…:)

    She actually doesn’t have that many supporters.

    Hillary was touring colleges at this point. Kamala is kept in a cage. They try to keep the camera off of her. Just search the news feeds to see how rarely they interview her. Everyone knows.

    Really? To start with, you would like Trump to be barred.

    Yes and no. I want Trump to quit because Biden’s best hope is for him to run. My worst case scenario is a Harris presidency. If Biden somehow wins I’m not convinced he has the guts to ask Harris to leave. In fact I don’t really care if we get a milktoast boring lawyer from either party if it means Harris is out.

    As for restrictions I don’t think felons should be allowed to run but that isn’t the law. Trump doesn’t have a felony (yet) and I fully support giving him a fair trial. But I don’t think he has much of a chance. The judge looks ready to charge him over Trump Fraud U. Then there are the classified documents. I just don’t see how he can escape all these charges. He really messed up with the documents. All he had to do was give them back when they asked for them. The guy is a silver spoon brat that can be irrationally stubborn. I would take him over most US politicians but I’m not in denial of his character or lack of it. He disappointed me on the border but he fulfilled job #1 which was keeping out Hillary.

    It is not an open system – the amount of permissions needed is very high. Don’t pretend – everyone knows it is a managed process, more so than in other Western countries where there are fewer barriers.

    It is very much an open system as seen by third party candidates. The vote sucking libertarian ran in the last election without permission and took votes away from Trump. RFK is hated by the Democrats and plans to run as an independent. The Democrats most likely lost the Bush II election because of Nader’s Green Party run.

    The process is unlike in many other countries open to cheating – no real checks, very sloppy data, remote voting.

    There is widespread belief among the MAGA crowd that Trump lost to cheating and yet exit polls matched the results. He lost independent Whites while gaining Hispanics. If 1 million more White men voted then we wouldn’t have doofy mcgoo. Millions of Whites don’t even bother voting. It’s so easy with absentee ballots but I guess they have more important things to do like watch 3-4 hours of television.

  83. German_reader says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    I think we're generally in agreement here, except perhaps for


    "I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown)"
     
    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea, but otherwise Russia were content to negotiate for the next 8 years over the status of the Russian population of Donbass and Luhansk - not exactly precipitate action. They were quite happy with the regional autonomy promised by Minsk II.

    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.

    They must have been pleased when Zelensky was elected on an explicit platform of improving relations with Russia, and deeply disillusioned when his policy was the precise opposite.

    Replies: @German_reader, @John Johnson

    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.

    That was essentially the point I wanted to make. Of course we can’t know exactly what caused Putin’s decision for the invasion, but something must have changed in 2021. The strategic partnership agreement between the US and Ukraine in September 2021 was probably an important factor, as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.

    • Thanks: Sean
    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader

    What changed was that Ukraine's economy kept improving as it was integrating with Europe, and pro-Russian Medvedchuk had his media empire taken away, and the Russian language was getting phased out. The first fact meant that Ukraine would not be forced to crawl back to Russia out of economic desperation and the second meant cultural estrangement. Essentially, Ukraine would be lost to Russia permanently. The hope of it one day following Belarus was receding.

    Only a military intervention could (hopefully) change this.

    NATO membership was not realistically viable, but it it were to have happened the result would not be an attack on Russia (no one is even attacking annoying North Korea) but permanent end to hopes of invading Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader


    as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.
     
    Why exactly should Ukraine have ever given up its EU aspirations, even though they were a long way away from joining the EU before the Russian invasion of their country? What exactly would have been the point of Ukraine seceding from the USSR and going through all of that suffering in the 1990s and beyond if it couldn't even eventually join the EU?
  84. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine
     
    The EU has though. Sure, I guess you could make an argument that Belarus is now essentially a Russian satellite state and we can live with it, so what if Putin had reduced Ukraine to the same status in a "police action" according to the old Warsaw pact playbook (as he probably imagined when he gave the order for the invasion in February 2022). But there probably would have been a lot of negative repercussions.
    Of course the end result of what has actually happened might be even worse. Given the recent string of critical articles in fairly mainstream media and Arestovych's utterances it looks like Ukraine's situation might be fairly precarious. Maybe even a sudden collapse is possible. And who knows what will happen then. There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects. Which might not be likely. But a victorious Russia with a battle-hardened army on NATO's borders isn't that appealing a prospect in any case (even if I think all these claims "Putin is going to invade the Baltics or Poland next" are just propaganda).

    In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev.
     
    Sure, it was a disastrous idea to attempt removing all Russian influence from Ukraine. The very idea of integrating Ukraine into an anti-Russian alliance was total madness.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Sean

    There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects.

    I don’t think those calls would be listened to. I don’t know what’s happened exactly, I guess there is a lot I still need to learn about my new country, but Ukraine is pretty much forgotten and has almost become a toxic, divisive issue politically.

    Conservative political commentators in the US are totally in overdrive about support for Israel. The lack of nuance is astonishing and hard to believe. I doubt Israelis themselves are so unanimous on their support for the war in Gaza. This morning I was listening to one of these commentators on the radio, not sure who it was, who accused people who oppose the Gaza bombings of being “anti-Semitic”, a view held by everyone in the studio with him. But at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    When it comes to foreign matters, the level of the public discourse in the US is quite low. It’s typically an all-or-nothing approach. I don’t doubt there’s still a lot of Ukraine hawks in DC but their influence is clearly on the wane, with many conservatives having decided to ditch Ukraine. The fact that Biden hasn’t managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn’t invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much but this is the reality in the US right now, that cannot be ignored. I guess Zelensky was right that the Gaza war is very bad news for Ukraine. However, I don’t think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse, as their difficulties in Avdiivka show. And one shouldn’t forget that they failed to take Kiev, Chenihiv and Sumy when Ukraine had only received minimal help from the West.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mikel


    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much
     
    In Germany Israel/Palestine is definitely the dominant topic now that has displaced everything else, including Ukraine. And there is very little nuance here either. The entire establishment is trying to outdo each other in "solidarity" with Israel and crying crocodile's tears about anti-Israel demonstrations by jihad-minded Muslims (wow, what a surprise, who could have known that people from the Mideast have such views...). The more extreme "liberal-conservatives" make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2 (just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now, not just to prevent more terror attacks and rescue hostages, but to lay the basis for re-educating Palestinians and curing them of antisemitism). Have even seen the old "Jordan should be the Palestinian state" line in a fairly mainstream publication.
    I find it extremely tiresome, even more so than Ukraine. At least Ukraine and the relations with Russia are important issues for the entire European security order, and I find the entire conflict depressing and tragic. Whereas if I'm honest with Israelis and Palestinians it's more like pity they both can't lose.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Barbarossa, @Beckow

    , @A123
    @Mikel


    at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.
     
    Ukie/Pali is a somewhat comparable mindset. Iranian Hamas steals fuel from hospitals and cuts up water pipe to make rockets. The Ukie's are not as bad, but the level of graft associated with funding Kiev is large. There are new corruption scandals every week or two.

    The fact that Biden hasn’t managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn’t invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.
     
    The fact that Kiev received a great deal and then Zelensky demanded much more came off as ingratitude.

    When the initial rounds went through, it was pitched as helping Ukraine "win". Now it is clear that Kiev cannot "win" militarily. For those who want to be re-elected, backing Kiev's failing efforts is much less appealing than it was 12 months ago.


    I don’t think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse
     
    Russia does not want Ukraine to collapse. Failed states make bad neighbors. Russia is seeing that up close from their base in Tartus. Lebanon continues to circle the drain.

    There is another Ukie/Pali problem. Just like Abbas walked away from Oslo -- Zelensky walked away from Minsk. Russia has been willing to negotiate for some time, but Putin has no one credible to make a deal with.

    Neither Putin nor Netanyahu cannot allow a pause that would used for rearmament.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    I'm sure public opinion is important if Biden wants some kind of crazy high funding to Ukraine, like the new $60 billion funding to Ukraine he wants, after the $75 billion they have given to Ukraine.

    But for the general alliance, the geopolitical alignments of USA to Ukraine is probably becoming more significant than partisan politics. So, some extent of American support to Ukraine could become independent of public views.

    There's now beginning some new almost Cold War blocs. After around autumn 2022, Russia becomes dependent in terms of military equipment to Iran and North Korea.

    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc "Russia-Iran-North Korea". If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

    If you remember the effect of the blocs in America's 20th century Cold War policy in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua. For example the Washington DC supports the Contras in Nicaragua because of the geopolitics, not because of "pro-Contras" opinion in the American population.

    -

    *Putin will be President until at least 2030.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @A123

  85. @katesisco
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html
    Peter Koenig writes on the brain impact from 5G.
    Early reports from scientists note sub sonic waves create the sense of 'another.'
    What is the outcome of this information?
    Either we ban these damaging sound waves OR.............
    we will see the further research into a form of 'brain shield' for a select few or even "domed" cities to prevent the incursion of waves. More likely these cities will be on distant islands almost inaccessible.
    War marches on.

    Replies: @QCIC

    Tin foil hats are coming back in vogue!

    Actually they are woven from nonlinear magneto-ferroic smart wire and tuned to block EM waves but amplify outgoing brain waves.

  86. @YetAnotherAnon
    @German_reader

    I think we're generally in agreement here, except perhaps for


    "I would have preferred a different Russia policy (one that would have made an attempt to avoid a confrontation over Ukraine instead of pretty much provoking a showdown)"
     
    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea, but otherwise Russia were content to negotiate for the next 8 years over the status of the Russian population of Donbass and Luhansk - not exactly precipitate action. They were quite happy with the regional autonomy promised by Minsk II.

    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.

    They must have been pleased when Zelensky was elected on an explicit platform of improving relations with Russia, and deeply disillusioned when his policy was the precise opposite.

    Replies: @German_reader, @John Johnson

    The 2014 coup shocked Russia into instant action over Crimea

    How exactly was it a coup when all parties wanted Yanukovych removed? Including his own pro-Russian party?

    Are you suggesting he was innocent and was unjustly accused of corruption? Do you believe that his million dollar mansion was actually purchased with legal funds? Even though the doors alone cost more than his annual salary?

    Yanukovych’s mansion now a museum of corruption
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezhyhirya_Residence

  87. Really good footage of a Russian holiday parade with fireworks:

    Not that they are hit with a cluster after they out of the vehicles. Nice move.

  88. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that's your issue. It doesn't change anything.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him - it is not so hard to understand. If you don't know what a "neo-con" is, google it...


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    Replies: @QCIC, @John Johnson

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    “Finland in NATO: Last in, first out.”
    “Easy come, easy go.”

    These headlines write themselves. “She’s cute, but not real bright.” (Marin).

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    “Finland in NATO: Last in, first out.”
    “Easy come, easy go.”


    So while Russia is violently suppressing any remaining resistance you believe Finland would leave NATO? Is that right? Why?

    What would prevent Russia from invading Finland on the basis that they can't be allowed to ever join NATO again?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Derer

  89. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @German_reader


    There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects.
     
    I don't think those calls would be listened to. I don't know what's happened exactly, I guess there is a lot I still need to learn about my new country, but Ukraine is pretty much forgotten and has almost become a toxic, divisive issue politically.

    Conservative political commentators in the US are totally in overdrive about support for Israel. The lack of nuance is astonishing and hard to believe. I doubt Israelis themselves are so unanimous on their support for the war in Gaza. This morning I was listening to one of these commentators on the radio, not sure who it was, who accused people who oppose the Gaza bombings of being "anti-Semitic", a view held by everyone in the studio with him. But at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    When it comes to foreign matters, the level of the public discourse in the US is quite low. It's typically an all-or-nothing approach. I don't doubt there's still a lot of Ukraine hawks in DC but their influence is clearly on the wane, with many conservatives having decided to ditch Ukraine. The fact that Biden hasn't managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn't invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much but this is the reality in the US right now, that cannot be ignored. I guess Zelensky was right that the Gaza war is very bad news for Ukraine. However, I don't think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse, as their difficulties in Avdiivka show. And one shouldn't forget that they failed to take Kiev, Chenihiv and Sumy when Ukraine had only received minimal help from the West.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123, @Dmitry

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much

    In Germany Israel/Palestine is definitely the dominant topic now that has displaced everything else, including Ukraine. And there is very little nuance here either. The entire establishment is trying to outdo each other in “solidarity” with Israel and crying crocodile’s tears about anti-Israel demonstrations by jihad-minded Muslims (wow, what a surprise, who could have known that people from the Mideast have such views…). The more extreme “liberal-conservatives” make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2 (just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now, not just to prevent more terror attacks and rescue hostages, but to lay the basis for re-educating Palestinians and curing them of antisemitism). Have even seen the old “Jordan should be the Palestinian state” line in a fairly mainstream publication.
    I find it extremely tiresome, even more so than Ukraine. At least Ukraine and the relations with Russia are important issues for the entire European security order, and I find the entire conflict depressing and tragic. Whereas if I’m honest with Israelis and Palestinians it’s more like pity they both can’t lose.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @German_reader

    Interesting that the public discourse in Germany is also so pro-Israel. Perhaps the historical guilt issue must be playing a role. I think that in the rest of Western Europe the Palestinians get plenty of public support but only as the victims of a quasi-colonial situation and the ones who always put the brunt of the civilian casualties. It's seldom an unrestricted support though, they started using terrorist tactics very early on (the Munich massacre, etc) and never made themselves too appealing to Western eyes. In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally. But I guess most Europeans share your lack of sympathy for any of both sides.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @Greasy William

    , @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    German politicians making self-flagellating approving statements about Allied bombing is painfully stupid.
    Prompted by Emil Nikola Richard's post on the proposed "Bat Bomb" I was discussing the civilian toll of Allied bombing of Germany and Japan with my wife. She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
    The disregard for civilians in WW2 by the Allies was horrific and any honest accounting of the history would recognize that there truly were no good guys.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    , @Beckow
    @German_reader


    ...“liberal-conservatives” make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2, just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now
     
    I hope those are extreme views. Today one can't be sure, the knives are out. In Prague some cultural figures talk about eliminating Palis and "it has to be done!" The open-border fanatics of yesteryear are screaming "kick them out!, let's not be soft!". But Prague is self-consciously absurd city, they overdo everything.
  90. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects.
     
    I don't think those calls would be listened to. I don't know what's happened exactly, I guess there is a lot I still need to learn about my new country, but Ukraine is pretty much forgotten and has almost become a toxic, divisive issue politically.

    Conservative political commentators in the US are totally in overdrive about support for Israel. The lack of nuance is astonishing and hard to believe. I doubt Israelis themselves are so unanimous on their support for the war in Gaza. This morning I was listening to one of these commentators on the radio, not sure who it was, who accused people who oppose the Gaza bombings of being "anti-Semitic", a view held by everyone in the studio with him. But at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    When it comes to foreign matters, the level of the public discourse in the US is quite low. It's typically an all-or-nothing approach. I don't doubt there's still a lot of Ukraine hawks in DC but their influence is clearly on the wane, with many conservatives having decided to ditch Ukraine. The fact that Biden hasn't managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn't invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much but this is the reality in the US right now, that cannot be ignored. I guess Zelensky was right that the Gaza war is very bad news for Ukraine. However, I don't think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse, as their difficulties in Avdiivka show. And one shouldn't forget that they failed to take Kiev, Chenihiv and Sumy when Ukraine had only received minimal help from the West.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123, @Dmitry

    at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    Ukie/Pali is a somewhat comparable mindset. Iranian Hamas steals fuel from hospitals and cuts up water pipe to make rockets. The Ukie’s are not as bad, but the level of graft associated with funding Kiev is large. There are new corruption scandals every week or two.

    The fact that Biden hasn’t managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn’t invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    The fact that Kiev received a great deal and then Zelensky demanded much more came off as ingratitude.

    When the initial rounds went through, it was pitched as helping Ukraine “win”. Now it is clear that Kiev cannot “win” militarily. For those who want to be re-elected, backing Kiev’s failing efforts is much less appealing than it was 12 months ago.

    I don’t think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse

    Russia does not want Ukraine to collapse. Failed states make bad neighbors. Russia is seeing that up close from their base in Tartus. Lebanon continues to circle the drain.

    There is another Ukie/Pali problem. Just like Abbas walked away from Oslo — Zelensky walked away from Minsk. Russia has been willing to negotiate for some time, but Putin has no one credible to make a deal with.

    Neither Putin nor Netanyahu cannot allow a pause that would used for rearmament.

    PEACE 😇

  91. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that's your issue. It doesn't change anything.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him - it is not so hard to understand. If you don't know what a "neo-con" is, google it...


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    Replies: @QCIC, @John Johnson

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Everyone can see that you are unable to answer very basic questions about NATO. It’s pretty much expected at this point. You make a statement about NATO or Ukraine and then change then subject when asked to elaborate.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand.

    Well then explain it for us since Zelensky was elected in 2019 and never initiated the NATO application process.

    Do tell what he did in that short period to betray his people.

    You clearly spent too much time in a pro-Putin bubble and didn’t realize that most of the pro-Putin bloggers are just plain full of shit. That is what happens when you try to defend the credibility of a mass murdering dwarf who lied to the UN about it being a “training exercise” and swore that he would never invade. He also pledged that DPR/LPR would become Republics which never happened. Putin recently claimed that his Jewish chef turned private warlord died after getting high on cocaine and playing with hand grenades. Do you believe him?

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin. They eventually disappoint everyone and that includes their biggest defenders. They have an unchangeable hatred of the world and everyone in it. In fact such bitter men are normally contemptuous of their own defenders. They view them as weak sycophants.

    Former Putin fan and DPR leader Igor Girkin has stated that Donbas separatism was never a popular movement and only occurred because of Russian backing. Of course we won’t hear much from Girkin at this point. Putin has him in a cage.

    But you for some reason seem to think it is a good idea to keep defending the rodent king and his endless lies.

    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?

    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    You are suggesting that Russia won’t sell them oil if they are in NATO?

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices.

    Or are you talking about another export like beets or ????? Russia is a gas station. No one wants Russian cars or even bicycles. Their military exports are about to drop while US Himars is backordered for over 10 years. Putin is a dream come true for US military companies. Way to go dwarf.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Sean
    @John Johnson


    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin
     
    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he'd tower over Zelensky. Hitler ended bitter (all political lives end in failure because that is the nature of politics and life), but his secret in his prime (Ernst Hanfstaengl said that no one who heard him speak after he achieved power could have any idea of his gifts), was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Sean
    @John Johnson


    Russia is a gas station
     
    Yes, like the one in "Wrong Turn', or the one in "The Hills Have Eyes; the ones that have attendants who try to tell the idiot travelers to turn back. Put it another way, only a fool would act as if Russia was harmless after it gave unmistakable evidence of lacking all restraint in the use of force, Ukraine by 2021 surely ought to have known what to expect.
    , @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You restated your nonsense. Why? We know that you hate Russians and will deny the nose between your eyes about Nato. Maybe follow John Mearsheimer, he is easy to find. You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won't change anything.


    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices
     
    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas - the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    Finland used to export to Russia and get most of its raw materials at very low prices - it is built into the geography, get a map. Many Finnish firms made most of their profits that way and closing itself off from Russia hurts the Finnish economy. They will pay more and sell less, they are not exactly able to reorient.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it - why don't you? Being in Nato does nothing: Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business - the cocain-smoking floozie really screwed them, didn't she?

    Replies: @John Johnson

  92. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    but Germany has no direct border with Ukraine
     
    The EU has though. Sure, I guess you could make an argument that Belarus is now essentially a Russian satellite state and we can live with it, so what if Putin had reduced Ukraine to the same status in a "police action" according to the old Warsaw pact playbook (as he probably imagined when he gave the order for the invasion in February 2022). But there probably would have been a lot of negative repercussions.
    Of course the end result of what has actually happened might be even worse. Given the recent string of critical articles in fairly mainstream media and Arestovych's utterances it looks like Ukraine's situation might be fairly precarious. Maybe even a sudden collapse is possible. And who knows what will happen then. There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects. Which might not be likely. But a victorious Russia with a battle-hardened army on NATO's borders isn't that appealing a prospect in any case (even if I think all these claims "Putin is going to invade the Baltics or Poland next" are just propaganda).

    In fact, the big conflicts began when the pro-western forces finally gained the upper hand in Kiev.
     
    Sure, it was a disastrous idea to attempt removing all Russian influence from Ukraine. The very idea of integrating Ukraine into an anti-Russian alliance was total madness.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Sean

    Arestovych’s utterances

    The key to understanding what is going on is not political or psychological but practical military science; Valery Zaluzhny’s recent piece in which he says the technology has got beyond the standard military doctrine of mobile warfare in all armies, because surveillance can see everything the opponent does and target them in real time. In addition minefields can be laid and re-laid from the drones and artillery cutting off any breakthrough. Swift advances will remain impossible until some new technology gives the offence its edge back. And–rely on it–you will have a long wait for that.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
  93. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Everyone can see that you are unable to answer very basic questions about NATO. It's pretty much expected at this point. You make a statement about NATO or Ukraine and then change then subject when asked to elaborate.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand.

    Well then explain it for us since Zelensky was elected in 2019 and never initiated the NATO application process.

    Do tell what he did in that short period to betray his people.

    You clearly spent too much time in a pro-Putin bubble and didn't realize that most of the pro-Putin bloggers are just plain full of shit. That is what happens when you try to defend the credibility of a mass murdering dwarf who lied to the UN about it being a "training exercise" and swore that he would never invade. He also pledged that DPR/LPR would become Republics which never happened. Putin recently claimed that his Jewish chef turned private warlord died after getting high on cocaine and playing with hand grenades. Do you believe him?

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin. They eventually disappoint everyone and that includes their biggest defenders. They have an unchangeable hatred of the world and everyone in it. In fact such bitter men are normally contemptuous of their own defenders. They view them as weak sycophants.

    Former Putin fan and DPR leader Igor Girkin has stated that Donbas separatism was never a popular movement and only occurred because of Russian backing. Of course we won't hear much from Girkin at this point. Putin has him in a cage.

    But you for some reason seem to think it is a good idea to keep defending the rodent king and his endless lies.


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    You are suggesting that Russia won't sell them oil if they are in NATO?

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices.

    Or are you talking about another export like beets or ????? Russia is a gas station. No one wants Russian cars or even bicycles. Their military exports are about to drop while US Himars is backordered for over 10 years. Putin is a dream come true for US military companies. Way to go dwarf.

    Replies: @Sean, @Sean, @Beckow

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin

    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he’d tower over Zelensky. Hitler ended bitter (all political lives end in failure because that is the nature of politics and life), but his secret in his prime (Ernst Hanfstaengl said that no one who heard him speak after he achieved power could have any idea of his gifts), was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Sean


    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin
     
    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he’d tower over Zelensky.

    You are saying that since Hitler wasn't short I should ignore the pattern.

    Note that I said short and bitter men. Putin has the bitter incel vibe when he does an interview. He can't help it. His own biographer said he is stuck in the stage when he was bullied as a child. It perfectly fits his personality. He is still angry over being bullied and wants to "one up" everyone. That is short man syndrome.

    But in general I do avoid personal relations with short men. Zelensky doesn't have the bitter vibe and I've known short guys that were quite likable by both men and women. But unfortunately in America we have a lot of very bitter men at the moment. It's just not worth the risk. I live well and I don't want issues with bitter men. To be clear I don't put all the blame on them. I am fully aware that White women can be harsh on them. Maybe not most but enough to where the pattern is there. I do think that most White women would date an average height felon over a 5'3 man (Putin's actual height). Is what it is. But the dating market is rather screwed up for everyone and I'm completely open to discussions on how it can be fixed. We are going to have more angry shooter incel types if something doesn't change.

    was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies

    Not a Hitler fan but I understand his disgust with the mainstream right/left of his time. The USSR under Lenin really did discuss invading Germany after WW1. That was only shelved after losing to Poland. It's entirely possible that Stalin planned on invading in the 40s. Germany had the devil at their door and the Con Incs of his time wanted to smoke cigars and talk business and Christianity instead of facing a very real threat. Quite familiar.

    Replies: @Sean

  94. @QCIC
    @Beckow

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    "Finland in NATO: Last in, first out."
    "Easy come, easy go."

    These headlines write themselves. "She's cute, but not real bright." (Marin).

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    “Finland in NATO: Last in, first out.”
    “Easy come, easy go.”

    So while Russia is violently suppressing any remaining resistance you believe Finland would leave NATO? Is that right? Why?

    What would prevent Russia from invading Finland on the basis that they can’t be allowed to ever join NATO again?

    • Replies: @QCIC
    @John Johnson

    Finland's security with respect to Russia depends more on good relations with Russia than with NATO.

    I don't think Russia has any designs to take over Finland. I assume they don't want Finland to be used as a source of Western-sponsored problems for Russia. Finland could readily stay neutral and have decent relations with both sides.

    I assume after the West stirred up the mess in Ukraine it was easy to pressure the hawks in Finland to act. Once the West got some traction they probably told Finland you are either for us or against us, so pick a side. Once Finland eventually drops out of NATO, it will be interesting to learn if they have statesmen who are wise enough to institute a foreign policy of selfish neutrality without being pulled too far into the Russian orbit.

    The racial and cultural transformations happening in many of the European countries may drive holdouts like Finland, Poland and even Russia into a cultural alliance sooner rather than later.

    , @Derer
    @John Johnson

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion. That same politburo just "successfully" persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    Replies: @WS, @John Johnson

  95. @Sean
    @John Johnson


    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin
     
    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he'd tower over Zelensky. Hitler ended bitter (all political lives end in failure because that is the nature of politics and life), but his secret in his prime (Ernst Hanfstaengl said that no one who heard him speak after he achieved power could have any idea of his gifts), was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin

    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he’d tower over Zelensky.

    You are saying that since Hitler wasn’t short I should ignore the pattern.

    Note that I said short and bitter men. Putin has the bitter incel vibe when he does an interview. He can’t help it. His own biographer said he is stuck in the stage when he was bullied as a child. It perfectly fits his personality. He is still angry over being bullied and wants to “one up” everyone. That is short man syndrome.

    But in general I do avoid personal relations with short men. Zelensky doesn’t have the bitter vibe and I’ve known short guys that were quite likable by both men and women. But unfortunately in America we have a lot of very bitter men at the moment. It’s just not worth the risk. I live well and I don’t want issues with bitter men. To be clear I don’t put all the blame on them. I am fully aware that White women can be harsh on them. Maybe not most but enough to where the pattern is there. I do think that most White women would date an average height felon over a 5’3 man (Putin’s actual height). Is what it is. But the dating market is rather screwed up for everyone and I’m completely open to discussions on how it can be fixed. We are going to have more angry shooter incel types if something doesn’t change.

    was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies

    Not a Hitler fan but I understand his disgust with the mainstream right/left of his time. The USSR under Lenin really did discuss invading Germany after WW1. That was only shelved after losing to Poland. It’s entirely possible that Stalin planned on invading in the 40s. Germany had the devil at their door and the Con Incs of his time wanted to smoke cigars and talk business and Christianity instead of facing a very real threat. Quite familiar.

    • Replies: @Sean
    @John Johnson


    His own biographer said he is stuck in the stage when he was bullied as a child
     
    It's just not true that dictators were bullied apart from Pol Pot. Stalin was physically aggressive despite being short with a withered arm. Mussolini wasnot tall but a very violent youth who stabbed someone . I doubt that Putin was bullied into his teen years because he was a notorious troublemaker in school ;Putin was quite a tough slum kid, he ran with the local juvenile thugs until gang's leader got jailed. Just becoming a member of the KGB was a noteworthy achievement for someone of his background.

    I do think that most White women would date an average height felon over a 5’3 man

     

    AOTBE (certainly does not apply to Putin with his status), but is that because of personality? Five foot three for a man nowadays in like 4'8'' for a woman.


    Even if completely pushed out of Ukraine, Russia can always just keep fighting from within their own borders. Disengaging from the hostilities will be Ukraine's greatest challenge. Assuming for the sake of argument that they lost in Ukraine. Russia would never sign a peace treaty, and Putin ceasing to be in charge of a defeated Russia will no more solve Ukraine's Russia problem that the Kaiser ceasing to rule a defeated Germany solved France's Germany problem

  96. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @AnonfromTN

    Trump does have an outside chance. The Be Powers are not a monolith. There are factions. If he does come out on top in the selection process he will be just as owned as Biden--it will just he a different Deep State faction that owns him. Only a demented megalomaniac could want the job.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    Only a demented megalomaniac could want the job.

    We had two megalomaniacs in 2020. Both were (and still are) stupid, but only one was demented. Then again, as American joke puts it, “Biden was always so dumb, that when he got demented, his family didn’t even notice”.

  97. GR will likely be disappointed that thieves stole this “art exhibit” featuring a fully functional golden toilet that was called America, only two days after it was installed.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: Ivashka the fool
  98. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Everyone can see that you are unable to answer very basic questions about NATO. It's pretty much expected at this point. You make a statement about NATO or Ukraine and then change then subject when asked to elaborate.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand.

    Well then explain it for us since Zelensky was elected in 2019 and never initiated the NATO application process.

    Do tell what he did in that short period to betray his people.

    You clearly spent too much time in a pro-Putin bubble and didn't realize that most of the pro-Putin bloggers are just plain full of shit. That is what happens when you try to defend the credibility of a mass murdering dwarf who lied to the UN about it being a "training exercise" and swore that he would never invade. He also pledged that DPR/LPR would become Republics which never happened. Putin recently claimed that his Jewish chef turned private warlord died after getting high on cocaine and playing with hand grenades. Do you believe him?

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin. They eventually disappoint everyone and that includes their biggest defenders. They have an unchangeable hatred of the world and everyone in it. In fact such bitter men are normally contemptuous of their own defenders. They view them as weak sycophants.

    Former Putin fan and DPR leader Igor Girkin has stated that Donbas separatism was never a popular movement and only occurred because of Russian backing. Of course we won't hear much from Girkin at this point. Putin has him in a cage.

    But you for some reason seem to think it is a good idea to keep defending the rodent king and his endless lies.


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    You are suggesting that Russia won't sell them oil if they are in NATO?

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices.

    Or are you talking about another export like beets or ????? Russia is a gas station. No one wants Russian cars or even bicycles. Their military exports are about to drop while US Himars is backordered for over 10 years. Putin is a dream come true for US military companies. Way to go dwarf.

    Replies: @Sean, @Sean, @Beckow

    Russia is a gas station

    Yes, like the one in “Wrong Turn’, or the one in “The Hills Have Eyes; the ones that have attendants who try to tell the idiot travelers to turn back. Put it another way, only a fool would act as if Russia was harmless after it gave unmistakable evidence of lacking all restraint in the use of force, Ukraine by 2021 surely ought to have known what to expect.

    • Agree: Ivashka the fool
  99. @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    “Finland in NATO: Last in, first out.”
    “Easy come, easy go.”


    So while Russia is violently suppressing any remaining resistance you believe Finland would leave NATO? Is that right? Why?

    What would prevent Russia from invading Finland on the basis that they can't be allowed to ever join NATO again?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Derer

    Finland’s security with respect to Russia depends more on good relations with Russia than with NATO.

    I don’t think Russia has any designs to take over Finland. I assume they don’t want Finland to be used as a source of Western-sponsored problems for Russia. Finland could readily stay neutral and have decent relations with both sides.

    I assume after the West stirred up the mess in Ukraine it was easy to pressure the hawks in Finland to act. Once the West got some traction they probably told Finland you are either for us or against us, so pick a side. Once Finland eventually drops out of NATO, it will be interesting to learn if they have statesmen who are wise enough to institute a foreign policy of selfish neutrality without being pulled too far into the Russian orbit.

    The racial and cultural transformations happening in many of the European countries may drive holdouts like Finland, Poland and even Russia into a cultural alliance sooner rather than later.

  100. @John Johnson
    @Sean


    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin
     
    Hitler was not short, if of the same generation he’d tower over Zelensky.

    You are saying that since Hitler wasn't short I should ignore the pattern.

    Note that I said short and bitter men. Putin has the bitter incel vibe when he does an interview. He can't help it. His own biographer said he is stuck in the stage when he was bullied as a child. It perfectly fits his personality. He is still angry over being bullied and wants to "one up" everyone. That is short man syndrome.

    But in general I do avoid personal relations with short men. Zelensky doesn't have the bitter vibe and I've known short guys that were quite likable by both men and women. But unfortunately in America we have a lot of very bitter men at the moment. It's just not worth the risk. I live well and I don't want issues with bitter men. To be clear I don't put all the blame on them. I am fully aware that White women can be harsh on them. Maybe not most but enough to where the pattern is there. I do think that most White women would date an average height felon over a 5'3 man (Putin's actual height). Is what it is. But the dating market is rather screwed up for everyone and I'm completely open to discussions on how it can be fixed. We are going to have more angry shooter incel types if something doesn't change.

    was tremendous optimism and a conviction that his way was healthy and natural and must trumuph over what he saw as warped ideologies

    Not a Hitler fan but I understand his disgust with the mainstream right/left of his time. The USSR under Lenin really did discuss invading Germany after WW1. That was only shelved after losing to Poland. It's entirely possible that Stalin planned on invading in the 40s. Germany had the devil at their door and the Con Incs of his time wanted to smoke cigars and talk business and Christianity instead of facing a very real threat. Quite familiar.

    Replies: @Sean

    His own biographer said he is stuck in the stage when he was bullied as a child

    It’s just not true that dictators were bullied apart from Pol Pot. Stalin was physically aggressive despite being short with a withered arm. Mussolini wasnot tall but a very violent youth who stabbed someone . I doubt that Putin was bullied into his teen years because he was a notorious troublemaker in school ;Putin was quite a tough slum kid, he ran with the local juvenile thugs until gang’s leader got jailed. Just becoming a member of the KGB was a noteworthy achievement for someone of his background.

    I do think that most White women would date an average height felon over a 5’3 man

    AOTBE (certainly does not apply to Putin with his status), but is that because of personality? Five foot three for a man nowadays in like 4’8” for a woman.

    Even if completely pushed out of Ukraine, Russia can always just keep fighting from within their own borders. Disengaging from the hostilities will be Ukraine’s greatest challenge. Assuming for the sake of argument that they lost in Ukraine. Russia would never sign a peace treaty, and Putin ceasing to be in charge of a defeated Russia will no more solve Ukraine’s Russia problem that the Kaiser ceasing to rule a defeated Germany solved France’s Germany problem

  101. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much
     
    In Germany Israel/Palestine is definitely the dominant topic now that has displaced everything else, including Ukraine. And there is very little nuance here either. The entire establishment is trying to outdo each other in "solidarity" with Israel and crying crocodile's tears about anti-Israel demonstrations by jihad-minded Muslims (wow, what a surprise, who could have known that people from the Mideast have such views...). The more extreme "liberal-conservatives" make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2 (just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now, not just to prevent more terror attacks and rescue hostages, but to lay the basis for re-educating Palestinians and curing them of antisemitism). Have even seen the old "Jordan should be the Palestinian state" line in a fairly mainstream publication.
    I find it extremely tiresome, even more so than Ukraine. At least Ukraine and the relations with Russia are important issues for the entire European security order, and I find the entire conflict depressing and tragic. Whereas if I'm honest with Israelis and Palestinians it's more like pity they both can't lose.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Barbarossa, @Beckow

    Interesting that the public discourse in Germany is also so pro-Israel. Perhaps the historical guilt issue must be playing a role. I think that in the rest of Western Europe the Palestinians get plenty of public support but only as the victims of a quasi-colonial situation and the ones who always put the brunt of the civilian casualties. It’s seldom an unrestricted support though, they started using terrorist tactics very early on (the Munich massacre, etc) and never made themselves too appealing to Western eyes. In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally. But I guess most Europeans share your lack of sympathy for any of both sides.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    Within the West, the right-left support choice for Israel or Palestine is not so unpredictable or mysterious.

    A wealthy, very developed, Western "first world" country, fights using modern technology against non-Western Jihadist "resistance" with Kalashnikovs.

    In the Lenin/Star wars categories, "bourgeois imperialism" vs romantic partisans.

    So, the support and the opposition groups in the West, are similar as for conflicts like the 2003 Iraq war between the USA vs Iraq or USA vs North Vietnam.

    Left-wing and postcolonialist people are supporting Palestine (anti-government people, university students/academics, educated people, Muslim immigrants, LGBT groups, BLM, countries like Sweden and Ireland, people with "conspiracy theories"), while "pro-West" and center-right politically people support more on average Israel.

    -

    Although with some overlapping, Ukraine vs Russia had a bit different mix of the support and opposition in the West.

    Ukraine was seen as a weak country, fighting the strong country Russia. Ukraine was viewed as the romantic partisans fighting against the Russian imperialism. Both Russia and Ukraine are non-Western, second world countries. But Ukraine signals that it wants to join the West.

    So, a lot of the left-wing* in the West supports Ukraine, because they always want to support the weaker side against the stronger side. Also some of the right-wing, pro-Western people support Ukraine, because Ukraine since Euromaidan signals it wants to join the West.*

    But far-right and far-left both support Russia against Ukraine.**

    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the "anti-colonial theme" and returns to the earlier 2020s culture war of BLM etc.


    -
    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.

    **Politically far-right and far-left Western people also are likely almost all supporting Palestine against Israel.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mikel

    , @German_reader
    @Mikel

    Earlier this evening I came out of the railway station in my shithole city and outside there was one of those digital advertising columns (hope that's the right word, not sure), featuring this official announcement from the Bundestag:


    The German Bundestag
    Solidarity with Israel
    The German Bundestag stands firmly and determinedly on the side of Israel and her people
     
    Just ridiculous.

    In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally.
     
    They are idiots. I can't say I like Palestinians on a personal level, and yes, their nihilistic terroristic tactics have always been pretty repellent. But Israel is still in the wrong with its occupation and colonization policies. There is nothing to be gained by supporting expansionist Zionism either, diaspora Jews will still keep pushing their anti-nationalist bs for everybody else, and if one's unlucky one will be dragged into a catastrophic Mideast war. Really have nothing but contempt for those pro-Israel right-wingers and their bloodthirsty fantasies.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @Greasy William
    @Mikel

    The dirty secret of the Israeli Arab conflict is that, for all the murderous passion it generates, the overwhelming majority of humanity really doesn't care either way. One side could literally genocide the other and I seriously think that 90% of all people in the world (outside of Jews and Arabs/Muslims, I mean) wouldn't give a shit.

    Replies: @Mikel

  102. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.
     
    That was essentially the point I wanted to make. Of course we can't know exactly what caused Putin's decision for the invasion, but something must have changed in 2021. The strategic partnership agreement between the US and Ukraine in September 2021 was probably an important factor, as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    What changed was that Ukraine’s economy kept improving as it was integrating with Europe, and pro-Russian Medvedchuk had his media empire taken away, and the Russian language was getting phased out. The first fact meant that Ukraine would not be forced to crawl back to Russia out of economic desperation and the second meant cultural estrangement. Essentially, Ukraine would be lost to Russia permanently. The hope of it one day following Belarus was receding.

    Only a military intervention could (hopefully) change this.

    NATO membership was not realistically viable, but it it were to have happened the result would not be an attack on Russia (no one is even attacking annoying North Korea) but permanent end to hopes of invading Ukraine.

    • Agree: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    and pro-Russian Medvedchuk had his media empire taken away,
     
    This specifically I think could have been criticized, but could have still been viewed as defensible for the very same reason that Britain censoring pro-Nazi speech during WWII is viewed as defensible. Russia was already in a low-level war with Ukraine in 2021. One could, of course, question whether the pre-February 2022 situation (unlike the post-February 2022 situation) was sufficient to justify taking away Medvedchuk's media empire, of course. Between 1939 and 1945, Britain was in a full state of war with Germany, not simply in a state of low-level undeclared war.
  103. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much
     
    In Germany Israel/Palestine is definitely the dominant topic now that has displaced everything else, including Ukraine. And there is very little nuance here either. The entire establishment is trying to outdo each other in "solidarity" with Israel and crying crocodile's tears about anti-Israel demonstrations by jihad-minded Muslims (wow, what a surprise, who could have known that people from the Mideast have such views...). The more extreme "liberal-conservatives" make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2 (just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now, not just to prevent more terror attacks and rescue hostages, but to lay the basis for re-educating Palestinians and curing them of antisemitism). Have even seen the old "Jordan should be the Palestinian state" line in a fairly mainstream publication.
    I find it extremely tiresome, even more so than Ukraine. At least Ukraine and the relations with Russia are important issues for the entire European security order, and I find the entire conflict depressing and tragic. Whereas if I'm honest with Israelis and Palestinians it's more like pity they both can't lose.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Barbarossa, @Beckow

    German politicians making self-flagellating approving statements about Allied bombing is painfully stupid.
    Prompted by Emil Nikola Richard’s post on the proposed “Bat Bomb” I was discussing the civilian toll of Allied bombing of Germany and Japan with my wife. She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
    The disregard for civilians in WW2 by the Allies was horrific and any honest accounting of the history would recognize that there truly were no good guys.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Barbarossa

    My grandparents survived the Western bombing of German cities. In Munich they avoided hitting factories and targeted residential quarters.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Barbarossa


    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
     
    Quite interesting that Wilhelm Gustloff the ship fared as badly as Wilhelm Gustloff the man.

    BTW, the Jewish killer of Wilhelm Gustloff the man was able to survive the Holocaust by spending WWII in a Swiss prison. Lucky him!
    , @German_reader
    @Barbarossa


    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
     
    There were others in WW2 which were somewhat similar:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Lancastria
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_hospital_ship_Armenia

    Anyway, I normally don't even think there's much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2. But there's something profoundly warped about those militant Westerners who always believe they're re-fighting WW2 and get off on rather extreme fantasies about cathartic violence and collective punishment. It's a type that seems to have proliferated in Germany in recent years, strange phenomenon.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @AnonfromTN

  104. @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    German politicians making self-flagellating approving statements about Allied bombing is painfully stupid.
    Prompted by Emil Nikola Richard's post on the proposed "Bat Bomb" I was discussing the civilian toll of Allied bombing of Germany and Japan with my wife. She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
    The disregard for civilians in WW2 by the Allies was horrific and any honest accounting of the history would recognize that there truly were no good guys.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    My grandparents survived the Western bombing of German cities. In Munich they avoided hitting factories and targeted residential quarters.

  105. Just stopped by to see if anything has changed on these threads, and nope it hasn’t. One obvious paid shill putting in a lot of hours and effort to monopolize the whole thread, as usual. Hope the money is worth it.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Hapalong Cassidy

    I would imagine that UNZ would be the cushy sinecure of the paid online troll world, right? Wide latitude, long form discourse trollery at its finest. A place where the paid troll can really hone his craft at a leisurely pace.

    Imagine getting assigned to the Breitbart comments section or some similar hell-hole.

  106. @Mikel
    @German_reader

    Interesting that the public discourse in Germany is also so pro-Israel. Perhaps the historical guilt issue must be playing a role. I think that in the rest of Western Europe the Palestinians get plenty of public support but only as the victims of a quasi-colonial situation and the ones who always put the brunt of the civilian casualties. It's seldom an unrestricted support though, they started using terrorist tactics very early on (the Munich massacre, etc) and never made themselves too appealing to Western eyes. In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally. But I guess most Europeans share your lack of sympathy for any of both sides.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @Greasy William

    Within the West, the right-left support choice for Israel or Palestine is not so unpredictable or mysterious.

    A wealthy, very developed, Western “first world” country, fights using modern technology against non-Western Jihadist “resistance” with Kalashnikovs.

    In the Lenin/Star wars categories, “bourgeois imperialism” vs romantic partisans.

    So, the support and the opposition groups in the West, are similar as for conflicts like the 2003 Iraq war between the USA vs Iraq or USA vs North Vietnam.

    Left-wing and postcolonialist people are supporting Palestine (anti-government people, university students/academics, educated people, Muslim immigrants, LGBT groups, BLM, countries like Sweden and Ireland, people with “conspiracy theories”), while “pro-West” and center-right politically people support more on average Israel.

    Although with some overlapping, Ukraine vs Russia had a bit different mix of the support and opposition in the West.

    Ukraine was seen as a weak country, fighting the strong country Russia. Ukraine was viewed as the romantic partisans fighting against the Russian imperialism. Both Russia and Ukraine are non-Western, second world countries. But Ukraine signals that it wants to join the West.

    So, a lot of the left-wing* in the West supports Ukraine, because they always want to support the weaker side against the stronger side. Also some of the right-wing, pro-Western people support Ukraine, because Ukraine since Euromaidan signals it wants to join the West.*

    But far-right and far-left both support Russia against Ukraine.**

    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the “anti-colonial theme” and returns to the earlier 2020s culture war of BLM etc.


    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.

    **Politically far-right and far-left Western people also are likely almost all supporting Palestine against Israel.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the “anti-colonial theme” and fits with the earlier culture war of BLM etc.
     
    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.

    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.
     
    Ukraine, while conservative on LGBTQ+ issues by Western standards, is more progressive on such issues than Russia is. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has actually helped pave the way for more LGBTQ+ acceptance among Ukrainians, who view LGBTQ+ hate as a symbol of predatory Russian imperialism and thus as something that Ukraine should strive to distance itself from:

    https://time.com/6273445/putin-lgbt-rights-ukraine-russia/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/16/ukraine-russia-war-putin-homophobia-lgbtq-rights-military-civil-unions/

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2023-10-01/ty-article-magazine/.premium/if-putin-hates-gays-were-all-for-them-russias-war-changes-lives-of-ukrainian-lgbtq/0000018a-dcb1-d476-abcf-fef38cb80000

    And Yes, being gay in Palestine would be worst of all out of all of these countries.

    Replies: @Coconuts

    , @Mikel
    @Dmitry

    What you are describing is general guidelines for the distribution of sympathies towards both sides of the Israel/Arab conflict in Western Europe (not sure about EE). But one shouldn't confuse general sympathy or proclivity with actual support for any one side. My experience with many people of different Western European countries is that very few people feel the need to side with one or the other.

    As G_R said, it's a tedious issue that has been there forever in everyone's lifetimes and it's difficult to feel that anyone can do much about it or even say anything new about it. Israel is generally seen as much closer socially to us so it could potentially get much more support but, on the one hand, there is the very heavy-handed tactics that they always use and on the other hand, the religious thing that, to some extent or the other, leads Israelis to have further expansionists tendencies is also perceived as alienating.

    The only more or less novel thing that I could say is that here in the US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe (with the apparent exception of Germany) and there is also a very important religious component that is absent in Europe. Mormons seem to be as supportive of Israel as evangelicals, which is not surprising considering the central role that Israel plays in their sacred books. Utah is full of Jewish toponyms everywhere: Nephi, Lehi, Zion, Moab, Nebo, Kanab,... People around me who didn't express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

  107. @John Johnson
    @Mr. XYZ

    There won't be a Trump blowout.

    If he somehow doesn't catch a felony the Democrats will run someone else. In that scenario he would lose swing states.

    The Democrats are just being nice to Biden since he is in office and two wars are going on.

    He will be wheeled away at the right moment.

    Wasn’t Obama also behind Romney by several points at this point in time in 2011? And yet Obama beat Romney by four points in the popular vote in (November) 2012 and got a comfortable electoral college victory to boot.

    The Democrat is normally projected to win unless the Republican can take swing voters.

    Independents currently hate Trump but view Biden as unfit for office.

    Trump should quit so his MAGA cult will give up and rally around a candidate that beat Biden or a moderate Democrat.

    But most likely scenario is that Trump gets a felony and loses even more independents. He is facing 91 charges and it is possible that he could do prison time. The documents case is pretty damning because he is on tape asking someone to help cover it up.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    He will be wheeled away at the right moment.

    Not if Trump gets a felony. Then Biden would be delighted to have a rematch with him.

  108. @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    Within the West, the right-left support choice for Israel or Palestine is not so unpredictable or mysterious.

    A wealthy, very developed, Western "first world" country, fights using modern technology against non-Western Jihadist "resistance" with Kalashnikovs.

    In the Lenin/Star wars categories, "bourgeois imperialism" vs romantic partisans.

    So, the support and the opposition groups in the West, are similar as for conflicts like the 2003 Iraq war between the USA vs Iraq or USA vs North Vietnam.

    Left-wing and postcolonialist people are supporting Palestine (anti-government people, university students/academics, educated people, Muslim immigrants, LGBT groups, BLM, countries like Sweden and Ireland, people with "conspiracy theories"), while "pro-West" and center-right politically people support more on average Israel.

    -

    Although with some overlapping, Ukraine vs Russia had a bit different mix of the support and opposition in the West.

    Ukraine was seen as a weak country, fighting the strong country Russia. Ukraine was viewed as the romantic partisans fighting against the Russian imperialism. Both Russia and Ukraine are non-Western, second world countries. But Ukraine signals that it wants to join the West.

    So, a lot of the left-wing* in the West supports Ukraine, because they always want to support the weaker side against the stronger side. Also some of the right-wing, pro-Western people support Ukraine, because Ukraine since Euromaidan signals it wants to join the West.*

    But far-right and far-left both support Russia against Ukraine.**

    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the "anti-colonial theme" and returns to the earlier 2020s culture war of BLM etc.


    -
    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.

    **Politically far-right and far-left Western people also are likely almost all supporting Palestine against Israel.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mikel

    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the “anti-colonial theme” and fits with the earlier culture war of BLM etc.

    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.

    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.

    Ukraine, while conservative on LGBTQ+ issues by Western standards, is more progressive on such issues than Russia is. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has actually helped pave the way for more LGBTQ+ acceptance among Ukrainians, who view LGBTQ+ hate as a symbol of predatory Russian imperialism and thus as something that Ukraine should strive to distance itself from:

    https://time.com/6273445/putin-lgbt-rights-ukraine-russia/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/16/ukraine-russia-war-putin-homophobia-lgbtq-rights-military-civil-unions/

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2023-10-01/ty-article-magazine/.premium/if-putin-hates-gays-were-all-for-them-russias-war-changes-lives-of-ukrainian-lgbtq/0000018a-dcb1-d476-abcf-fef38cb80000

    And Yes, being gay in Palestine would be worst of all out of all of these countries.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
    @Mr. XYZ


    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.
     
    At the moment it doesn't seem to work like that, at least in the Anglosphere. Probably it is because American culture defines who is and isn't white at the moment, in terms of the term being politically meaningful. And the criteria seems to be if a person was in the US, would they be considered white or not?

    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.

    Replies: @AP

  109. @German_reader
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Only when it became apparent that negotiations were just a delaying tactic while Ukr forces were trained and armed did Russia move.
     
    That was essentially the point I wanted to make. Of course we can't know exactly what caused Putin's decision for the invasion, but something must have changed in 2021. The strategic partnership agreement between the US and Ukraine in September 2021 was probably an important factor, as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    as was the evident inability or unwillingness of Germany and France to put pressure on Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements.

    Why exactly should Ukraine have ever given up its EU aspirations, even though they were a long way away from joining the EU before the Russian invasion of their country? What exactly would have been the point of Ukraine seceding from the USSR and going through all of that suffering in the 1990s and beyond if it couldn’t even eventually join the EU?

  110. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    There would certainly be calls for direct NATO intervention from the usual suspects.
     
    I don't think those calls would be listened to. I don't know what's happened exactly, I guess there is a lot I still need to learn about my new country, but Ukraine is pretty much forgotten and has almost become a toxic, divisive issue politically.

    Conservative political commentators in the US are totally in overdrive about support for Israel. The lack of nuance is astonishing and hard to believe. I doubt Israelis themselves are so unanimous on their support for the war in Gaza. This morning I was listening to one of these commentators on the radio, not sure who it was, who accused people who oppose the Gaza bombings of being "anti-Semitic", a view held by everyone in the studio with him. But at some point he managed to tie in the humanitarian aid to Gaza, that he thinks is used by Hamas in malicious ways, with the aid that the US is sending to Ukraine, also being pillaged according to him.

    When it comes to foreign matters, the level of the public discourse in the US is quite low. It's typically an all-or-nothing approach. I don't doubt there's still a lot of Ukraine hawks in DC but their influence is clearly on the wane, with many conservatives having decided to ditch Ukraine. The fact that Biden hasn't managed to get Congress funding for Ukraine for months and that last time Zelensky visited Washington he wasn't invited to Congress (even though McCarthy was still speaker) speaks for itself.

    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much but this is the reality in the US right now, that cannot be ignored. I guess Zelensky was right that the Gaza war is very bad news for Ukraine. However, I don't think the Russians are capable of making Ukraine collapse, as their difficulties in Avdiivka show. And one shouldn't forget that they failed to take Kiev, Chenihiv and Sumy when Ukraine had only received minimal help from the West.

    Replies: @German_reader, @A123, @Dmitry

    I’m sure public opinion is important if Biden wants some kind of crazy high funding to Ukraine, like the new $60 billion funding to Ukraine he wants, after the $75 billion they have given to Ukraine.

    But for the general alliance, the geopolitical alignments of USA to Ukraine is probably becoming more significant than partisan politics. So, some extent of American support to Ukraine could become independent of public views.

    There’s now beginning some new almost Cold War blocs. After around autumn 2022, Russia becomes dependent in terms of military equipment to Iran and North Korea.

    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

    If you remember the effect of the blocs in America’s 20th century Cold War policy in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua. For example the Washington DC supports the Contras in Nicaragua because of the geopolitics, not because of “pro-Contras” opinion in the American population.

    *Putin will be President until at least 2030.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

     

    The best way for Russia to get itself back in the West's and specifically the US's good graces is to withdraw from all of Ukraine, including from Crimea, and to take a hardline anti-China stance (which carries its own risks for Russia, of course).

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @A123
    @Dmitry


    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.
     
    It is hard to see that as a coherent "bloc". A better analogy is ships sailing the same direction. They may temporarily form a "convoy", but it does not indicate a durable structure.

    Among the reasons why the Populist center is ending support for Ukraine -- Backing Kiev is a strategic error that forces Russia closer to genuine anti-American figures like Khamenei. Ending the fight in Ukraine by creating new borders along current lines will help rebuild the relationship between Christian America and Christian Russia.

    Far-left Globalists, including NeoConDemocrats, want to keep the cold war mentality going. Reasons for this include:

    • They still believe the debunked "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth.
    • They love of MegaCorporations and thus the MIC.
    • They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
    ____

    I again point out that "The West" is not particularly meaningful terminology.

    ♦ The U.S. led Judeo-Christian Populist West is headed one direction. This will become more clear in Trump's 2nd term.
    ♦ The Brussels/Paris/Berlin led Islamophile Globalist West is headed 180° the other.

    Every time "The West" is used as a phrase it begs the question, "Which West"?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

  111. @AP
    @German_reader

    What changed was that Ukraine's economy kept improving as it was integrating with Europe, and pro-Russian Medvedchuk had his media empire taken away, and the Russian language was getting phased out. The first fact meant that Ukraine would not be forced to crawl back to Russia out of economic desperation and the second meant cultural estrangement. Essentially, Ukraine would be lost to Russia permanently. The hope of it one day following Belarus was receding.

    Only a military intervention could (hopefully) change this.

    NATO membership was not realistically viable, but it it were to have happened the result would not be an attack on Russia (no one is even attacking annoying North Korea) but permanent end to hopes of invading Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    and pro-Russian Medvedchuk had his media empire taken away,

    This specifically I think could have been criticized, but could have still been viewed as defensible for the very same reason that Britain censoring pro-Nazi speech during WWII is viewed as defensible. Russia was already in a low-level war with Ukraine in 2021. One could, of course, question whether the pre-February 2022 situation (unlike the post-February 2022 situation) was sufficient to justify taking away Medvedchuk’s media empire, of course. Between 1939 and 1945, Britain was in a full state of war with Germany, not simply in a state of low-level undeclared war.

    • LOL: Mikhail
  112. @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    I'm sure public opinion is important if Biden wants some kind of crazy high funding to Ukraine, like the new $60 billion funding to Ukraine he wants, after the $75 billion they have given to Ukraine.

    But for the general alliance, the geopolitical alignments of USA to Ukraine is probably becoming more significant than partisan politics. So, some extent of American support to Ukraine could become independent of public views.

    There's now beginning some new almost Cold War blocs. After around autumn 2022, Russia becomes dependent in terms of military equipment to Iran and North Korea.

    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc "Russia-Iran-North Korea". If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

    If you remember the effect of the blocs in America's 20th century Cold War policy in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua. For example the Washington DC supports the Contras in Nicaragua because of the geopolitics, not because of "pro-Contras" opinion in the American population.

    -

    *Putin will be President until at least 2030.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @A123

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

    The best way for Russia to get itself back in the West’s and specifically the US’s good graces is to withdraw from all of Ukraine, including from Crimea, and to take a hardline anti-China stance (which carries its own risks for Russia, of course).

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mr. XYZ


    ...The best way for Russia to get itself back in the West’s and specifically the US’s good graces is to withdraw from all of Ukraine, including from Crimea, and to take a hardline anti-China stance
     
    The way Russia was pre-2014? Or back in the 90's? How did that work for Russia?

    When they were in good graces, they were pushed around, ignored, Nato was rapidly expanding to their borders, trade was "sanctioned" based on some 1970's laws, the West openly pined for another Yeltsin. They started to demonize Russia in 2002-3 when the first group of oligarchs was pushed out.

    If that was good graces what is the motivation for Russia to want it back? There were milder Western politicians but they were gradually removed by the fanatics: Berlusconi, Schroeder, anyone not fully on-board was removed. Russians may be slow, but they are not stupid - they eventually looked at what was going on and not at the pretty speeches and the false camaraderie.

    It is not going to reverse - we are in for an existential fight and one of the sides will bear the consequences. Or probably both.

  113. @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    German politicians making self-flagellating approving statements about Allied bombing is painfully stupid.
    Prompted by Emil Nikola Richard's post on the proposed "Bat Bomb" I was discussing the civilian toll of Allied bombing of Germany and Japan with my wife. She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
    The disregard for civilians in WW2 by the Allies was horrific and any honest accounting of the history would recognize that there truly were no good guys.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.

    Quite interesting that Wilhelm Gustloff the ship fared as badly as Wilhelm Gustloff the man.

    BTW, the Jewish killer of Wilhelm Gustloff the man was able to survive the Holocaust by spending WWII in a Swiss prison. Lucky him!

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  114. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    I guess things in Europe have not changed nearly as much
     
    In Germany Israel/Palestine is definitely the dominant topic now that has displaced everything else, including Ukraine. And there is very little nuance here either. The entire establishment is trying to outdo each other in "solidarity" with Israel and crying crocodile's tears about anti-Israel demonstrations by jihad-minded Muslims (wow, what a surprise, who could have known that people from the Mideast have such views...). The more extreme "liberal-conservatives" make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2 (just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now, not just to prevent more terror attacks and rescue hostages, but to lay the basis for re-educating Palestinians and curing them of antisemitism). Have even seen the old "Jordan should be the Palestinian state" line in a fairly mainstream publication.
    I find it extremely tiresome, even more so than Ukraine. At least Ukraine and the relations with Russia are important issues for the entire European security order, and I find the entire conflict depressing and tragic. Whereas if I'm honest with Israelis and Palestinians it's more like pity they both can't lose.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Barbarossa, @Beckow

    …“liberal-conservatives” make approving comparisons with the allied bombing campaign in WW2, just as that was necessary back then, so flattening Gaza is necessary now

    I hope those are extreme views. Today one can’t be sure, the knives are out. In Prague some cultural figures talk about eliminating Palis and “it has to be done!” The open-border fanatics of yesteryear are screaming “kick them out!, let’s not be soft!“. But Prague is self-consciously absurd city, they overdo everything.

  115. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You repeat desperate nonsense about Nato, but you know what was going on. If you choose to lie to yourself or to others, that’s your issue. It doesn’t change anything.

    Everyone can see that you are unable to answer very basic questions about NATO. It's pretty much expected at this point. You make a statement about NATO or Ukraine and then change then subject when asked to elaborate.

    Zelko run on a pro-peace platform and then betrayed people who voted for him – it is not so hard to understand.

    Well then explain it for us since Zelensky was elected in 2019 and never initiated the NATO application process.

    Do tell what he did in that short period to betray his people.

    You clearly spent too much time in a pro-Putin bubble and didn't realize that most of the pro-Putin bloggers are just plain full of shit. That is what happens when you try to defend the credibility of a mass murdering dwarf who lied to the UN about it being a "training exercise" and swore that he would never invade. He also pledged that DPR/LPR would become Republics which never happened. Putin recently claimed that his Jewish chef turned private warlord died after getting high on cocaine and playing with hand grenades. Do you believe him?

    I know from experience to avoid short and bitter men like Putin. They eventually disappoint everyone and that includes their biggest defenders. They have an unchangeable hatred of the world and everyone in it. In fact such bitter men are normally contemptuous of their own defenders. They view them as weak sycophants.

    Former Putin fan and DPR leader Igor Girkin has stated that Donbas separatism was never a popular movement and only occurred because of Russian backing. Of course we won't hear much from Girkin at this point. Putin has him in a cage.

    But you for some reason seem to think it is a good idea to keep defending the rodent king and his endless lies.


    How would they handle Finland if they are now in NATO?
     
    Lost business and economics. For details, get a map and a calculator. Over time Finland will become friendly again, they are not stupid, they like to make money.

    You are suggesting that Russia won't sell them oil if they are in NATO?

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices.

    Or are you talking about another export like beets or ????? Russia is a gas station. No one wants Russian cars or even bicycles. Their military exports are about to drop while US Himars is backordered for over 10 years. Putin is a dream come true for US military companies. Way to go dwarf.

    Replies: @Sean, @Sean, @Beckow

    You restated your nonsense. Why? We know that you hate Russians and will deny the nose between your eyes about Nato. Maybe follow John Mearsheimer, he is easy to find. You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won’t change anything.

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices

    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas – the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    Finland used to export to Russia and get most of its raw materials at very low prices – it is built into the geography, get a map. Many Finnish firms made most of their profits that way and closing itself off from Russia hurts the Finnish economy. They will pay more and sell less, they are not exactly able to reorient.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it – why don’t you? Being in Nato does nothing: Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business – the cocain-smoking floozie really screwed them, didn’t she?

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won’t change anything.

    Stop making stuff up.

    Go ahead and quote me or let everyone see that you can't respond without using your imagination.

    I never said NATO was moving to Ukraine. In fact I've cited the article where NATO said that Ukraine still doesn't qualify:
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-nato-membership-can-join-when-allies-agree-conditions-are-met-leaders-say/

    I don't know if Ukraine will join NATO. Of course they would like to join at this point. Who wouldn't want protection after being invaded by a larger power? However they could stay out as part of a deal with Russia. Or a country like Turkey could decide to vote against them.

    I am also on record stating that they don't need to join NATO for the sake of their own security. In 5 years this type of invasion will be even more difficult. The drone swarms will be ready which will make moving tanks and armored vehicles near impossible. China could in fact lose in an invasion if Taiwan prepares properly. The Taiwanese president however is a bit of a nitwit so that is up in the air.


    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices
     
    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas – the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    G7 countries are imposing a price cap. Russia however of course sells at market rate to non-G7 countries and the cap is basically an honor system. But the point is that Russia will sell oil to its own political opponents. They're not going to cut oil to Finland for joining NATO. Finland doesn't need anything else from Russia. Their main trade partners are Western.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it – why don’t you? Being in Nato does nothing

    NATO protects you from Russian invasion. Putin's henchmen are on video talking about how they should have taken the Baltics when they had the chance. They have TV debates where they speak of the Baltics as lost territories. Russians seem to think their borders should go to Germany and some even still want Eastern Germany. This mentality of Russians assuming their neighbors belong to them was described by the British over 100 years ago.

    Moldova has neutrality in their constitution and Belarus leaked the Russian invasion plan that showed them as next.

    Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business

    LOL you really must be imagining another dictator. Putin rants about all kinds of countries and then sells them oil. Why hasn't he passed sanctions on Finland? Yea I'm sure he'll get right on that.

    The dwarf is just out to conquer. He would have taken Finland or Kazakhstan if he had known that Ukraine would kick his tanks out of Kiev. Putin is on record stating that it was a shame that the USSR collapsed. A fake Christian if there ever was one. He tried recreating the Russian empire and was pushed back to Donbas.

    Eliminating the Ukrainian identity is a Russian fantasy. They view Ukrainians as snobbish half-Westerners. The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood and don't have all the random conquered people of the Russian empire. Quite strange that White nationalists like Anglin support Putin when Russia is the multi-racial/multi-religious empire and Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.

    Replies: @Beckow

  116. @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

     

    The best way for Russia to get itself back in the West's and specifically the US's good graces is to withdraw from all of Ukraine, including from Crimea, and to take a hardline anti-China stance (which carries its own risks for Russia, of course).

    Replies: @Beckow

    …The best way for Russia to get itself back in the West’s and specifically the US’s good graces is to withdraw from all of Ukraine, including from Crimea, and to take a hardline anti-China stance

    The way Russia was pre-2014? Or back in the 90’s? How did that work for Russia?

    When they were in good graces, they were pushed around, ignored, Nato was rapidly expanding to their borders, trade was “sanctioned” based on some 1970’s laws, the West openly pined for another Yeltsin. They started to demonize Russia in 2002-3 when the first group of oligarchs was pushed out.

    If that was good graces what is the motivation for Russia to want it back? There were milder Western politicians but they were gradually removed by the fanatics: Berlusconi, Schroeder, anyone not fully on-board was removed. Russians may be slow, but they are not stupid – they eventually looked at what was going on and not at the pretty speeches and the false camaraderie.

    It is not going to reverse – we are in for an existential fight and one of the sides will bear the consequences. Or probably both.

  117. @Mr. XYZ
    @Dmitry


    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the “anti-colonial theme” and fits with the earlier culture war of BLM etc.
     
    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.

    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.
     
    Ukraine, while conservative on LGBTQ+ issues by Western standards, is more progressive on such issues than Russia is. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has actually helped pave the way for more LGBTQ+ acceptance among Ukrainians, who view LGBTQ+ hate as a symbol of predatory Russian imperialism and thus as something that Ukraine should strive to distance itself from:

    https://time.com/6273445/putin-lgbt-rights-ukraine-russia/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/16/ukraine-russia-war-putin-homophobia-lgbtq-rights-military-civil-unions/

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2023-10-01/ty-article-magazine/.premium/if-putin-hates-gays-were-all-for-them-russias-war-changes-lives-of-ukrainian-lgbtq/0000018a-dcb1-d476-abcf-fef38cb80000

    And Yes, being gay in Palestine would be worst of all out of all of these countries.

    Replies: @Coconuts

    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.

    At the moment it doesn’t seem to work like that, at least in the Anglosphere. Probably it is because American culture defines who is and isn’t white at the moment, in terms of the term being politically meaningful. And the criteria seems to be if a person was in the US, would they be considered white or not?

    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Coconuts


    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.
     
    A friend from my university days, back in the early 90s, was from one of the former Soviet republics between Russia and Iran. When he got a US drivers license he listed his race as Caucasian. The woman working there disputed that he was Caucasian, inquiring if perhaps he was Hispanic. His response -

    “If I’m not Caucasian, then who is Caucasian”?

    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

  118. @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    I'm sure public opinion is important if Biden wants some kind of crazy high funding to Ukraine, like the new $60 billion funding to Ukraine he wants, after the $75 billion they have given to Ukraine.

    But for the general alliance, the geopolitical alignments of USA to Ukraine is probably becoming more significant than partisan politics. So, some extent of American support to Ukraine could become independent of public views.

    There's now beginning some new almost Cold War blocs. After around autumn 2022, Russia becomes dependent in terms of military equipment to Iran and North Korea.

    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc "Russia-Iran-North Korea". If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.*

    If you remember the effect of the blocs in America's 20th century Cold War policy in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua. For example the Washington DC supports the Contras in Nicaragua because of the geopolitics, not because of "pro-Contras" opinion in the American population.

    -

    *Putin will be President until at least 2030.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @A123

    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.

    It is hard to see that as a coherent “bloc”. A better analogy is ships sailing the same direction. They may temporarily form a “convoy”, but it does not indicate a durable structure.

    Among the reasons why the Populist center is ending support for Ukraine — Backing Kiev is a strategic error that forces Russia closer to genuine anti-American figures like Khamenei. Ending the fight in Ukraine by creating new borders along current lines will help rebuild the relationship between Christian America and Christian Russia.

    Far-left Globalists, including NeoConDemocrats, want to keep the cold war mentality going. Reasons for this include:

    • They still believe the debunked “Russia, Russia, Russia” myth.
    • They love of MegaCorporations and thus the MIC.
    • They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
    ____

    I again point out that “The West” is not particularly meaningful terminology.

    ♦ The U.S. led Judeo-Christian Populist West is headed one direction. This will become more clear in Trump’s 2nd term.
    ♦ The Brussels/Paris/Berlin led Islamophile Globalist West is headed 180° the other.

    Every time “The West” is used as a phrase it begs the question, “Which West”?

    PEACE 😇

    • Disagree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    kremlinstoogeA123 is once again showing the depths of his appeasing soul. Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation, comes to the same conclusion, that Russia will take a leading and most important role (the head of the countries of the north) and attack and try to subdue Israel. His attempt to conflate Christianity in the US and within Russia is a fruitless exercise of pure nonsense. As an ardent supporter of Israel he should know better.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Mr. Hack
    @A123


    They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
     

    Are you sure that its not the little "whistles" going off within your glue vaporized brain that provide you with these "puzzling" messages, kremlinstoogeA123?. Totally and unsubstantiated ideas emanating from our local master of strange conspiracy theories. Weave us some more kremlinstoogeA123, they're actually quite amusing. :-)
    , @sudden death
    @A123

    Pop quiz – you have two places infested with muslims, both local and immigrants, but in one you can burn Quran freely, while in other Quran is considered as sacred for all and such deed is punishable by jail and beatings in it.

    Which one should be considered more Islamophiliac?;)

  119. @A123
    @Dmitry


    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.
     
    It is hard to see that as a coherent "bloc". A better analogy is ships sailing the same direction. They may temporarily form a "convoy", but it does not indicate a durable structure.

    Among the reasons why the Populist center is ending support for Ukraine -- Backing Kiev is a strategic error that forces Russia closer to genuine anti-American figures like Khamenei. Ending the fight in Ukraine by creating new borders along current lines will help rebuild the relationship between Christian America and Christian Russia.

    Far-left Globalists, including NeoConDemocrats, want to keep the cold war mentality going. Reasons for this include:

    • They still believe the debunked "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth.
    • They love of MegaCorporations and thus the MIC.
    • They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
    ____

    I again point out that "The West" is not particularly meaningful terminology.

    ♦ The U.S. led Judeo-Christian Populist West is headed one direction. This will become more clear in Trump's 2nd term.
    ♦ The Brussels/Paris/Berlin led Islamophile Globalist West is headed 180° the other.

    Every time "The West" is used as a phrase it begs the question, "Which West"?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

    kremlinstoogeA123 is once again showing the depths of his appeasing soul. Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation, comes to the same conclusion, that Russia will take a leading and most important role (the head of the countries of the north) and attack and try to subdue Israel. His attempt to conflate Christianity in the US and within Russia is a fruitless exercise of pure nonsense. As an ardent supporter of Israel he should know better.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation
     
    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred. I've always been rather partial to that view myself.

    It's hardly so handy for selling blockbuster Evangelical action series though!

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack

  120. @A123
    @Dmitry


    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.
     
    It is hard to see that as a coherent "bloc". A better analogy is ships sailing the same direction. They may temporarily form a "convoy", but it does not indicate a durable structure.

    Among the reasons why the Populist center is ending support for Ukraine -- Backing Kiev is a strategic error that forces Russia closer to genuine anti-American figures like Khamenei. Ending the fight in Ukraine by creating new borders along current lines will help rebuild the relationship between Christian America and Christian Russia.

    Far-left Globalists, including NeoConDemocrats, want to keep the cold war mentality going. Reasons for this include:

    • They still believe the debunked "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth.
    • They love of MegaCorporations and thus the MIC.
    • They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
    ____

    I again point out that "The West" is not particularly meaningful terminology.

    ♦ The U.S. led Judeo-Christian Populist West is headed one direction. This will become more clear in Trump's 2nd term.
    ♦ The Brussels/Paris/Berlin led Islamophile Globalist West is headed 180° the other.

    Every time "The West" is used as a phrase it begs the question, "Which West"?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

    They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.

    Are you sure that its not the little “whistles” going off within your glue vaporized brain that provide you with these “puzzling” messages, kremlinstoogeA123?. Totally and unsubstantiated ideas emanating from our local master of strange conspiracy theories. Weave us some more kremlinstoogeA123, they’re actually quite amusing. 🙂

  121. @A123
    @Dmitry


    So, there is now three of the main unfriendly countries for America becoming like a Cold War bloc “Russia-Iran-North Korea”. If they just add Cuba and Venezuela.

    Ukraine is now on the American side of the blocs, even if Ukraine would be unpopular with the public in America this geopolitical alignment is probably not changing until at least Putin retires.
     
    It is hard to see that as a coherent "bloc". A better analogy is ships sailing the same direction. They may temporarily form a "convoy", but it does not indicate a durable structure.

    Among the reasons why the Populist center is ending support for Ukraine -- Backing Kiev is a strategic error that forces Russia closer to genuine anti-American figures like Khamenei. Ending the fight in Ukraine by creating new borders along current lines will help rebuild the relationship between Christian America and Christian Russia.

    Far-left Globalists, including NeoConDemocrats, want to keep the cold war mentality going. Reasons for this include:

    • They still believe the debunked "Russia, Russia, Russia" myth.
    • They love of MegaCorporations and thus the MIC.
    • They believe Russia is too white.

    That last one is particularly puzzling, but it really is in circulation. I suspect that it is actually a coded dog whistle message that Russia is too Christian.
    ____

    I again point out that "The West" is not particularly meaningful terminology.

    ♦ The U.S. led Judeo-Christian Populist West is headed one direction. This will become more clear in Trump's 2nd term.
    ♦ The Brussels/Paris/Berlin led Islamophile Globalist West is headed 180° the other.

    Every time "The West" is used as a phrase it begs the question, "Which West"?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

    Pop quiz – you have two places infested with muslims, both local and immigrants, but in one you can burn Quran freely, while in other Quran is considered as sacred for all and such deed is punishable by jail and beatings in it.

    Which one should be considered more Islamophiliac?;)

    • LOL: A123
  122. @Coconuts
    @Mr. XYZ


    White nations can also be victims of imperialism. Eastern Europe is full of such white nations.
     
    At the moment it doesn't seem to work like that, at least in the Anglosphere. Probably it is because American culture defines who is and isn't white at the moment, in terms of the term being politically meaningful. And the criteria seems to be if a person was in the US, would they be considered white or not?

    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.

    Replies: @AP

    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.

    A friend from my university days, back in the early 90s, was from one of the former Soviet republics between Russia and Iran. When he got a US drivers license he listed his race as Caucasian. The woman working there disputed that he was Caucasian, inquiring if perhaps he was Hispanic. His response –

    “If I’m not Caucasian, then who is Caucasian”?

    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.
     
    A very close and prominent friend of the Aliyev family who rules over Azerbaijan?
    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    BTW, interesting story: When my mom went to the doctor's office (I think that it was the doctor's office, at least) and one of the paperwork asked about race, my mom inquired as to what "Caucasian" means. My parents are originally from Russia, so it's a completely understandable question because from a Russian perspective, "Caucasian" means someone from the Caucasus. The Korean lady/secretary who was speaking to my mother moved her mouth near my mom's ear, covered her mouth with her hand, and extremely quietly said "White".

  123. @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    kremlinstoogeA123 is once again showing the depths of his appeasing soul. Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation, comes to the same conclusion, that Russia will take a leading and most important role (the head of the countries of the north) and attack and try to subdue Israel. His attempt to conflate Christianity in the US and within Russia is a fruitless exercise of pure nonsense. As an ardent supporter of Israel he should know better.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation

    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred. I’ve always been rather partial to that view myself.

    It’s hardly so handy for selling blockbuster Evangelical action series though!

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa


    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred.
     
    Hmmm... If we are past Revelations, is this Purgatory?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    You're free to believe whatever you want, but I don't see how anybody can believe that all of the things written about within Revelations have already taken place. Some undoubtedly have, but it doesn't seem feasible that the Apocalypse has already taken place, with Christ sitting on his judgement seat ready to judge all of humanity and its eternal fate. Besides, Israel didn't crystalize into a modern nation/state until 1948, so how could all of it have already taken place?

    https://i.etsystatic.com/5322188/r/il/f8ba23/2635429337/il_794xN.2635429337_d7t9.jpg
    Right hand or left hand?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  124. @Dmitry
    @Mikel

    Within the West, the right-left support choice for Israel or Palestine is not so unpredictable or mysterious.

    A wealthy, very developed, Western "first world" country, fights using modern technology against non-Western Jihadist "resistance" with Kalashnikovs.

    In the Lenin/Star wars categories, "bourgeois imperialism" vs romantic partisans.

    So, the support and the opposition groups in the West, are similar as for conflicts like the 2003 Iraq war between the USA vs Iraq or USA vs North Vietnam.

    Left-wing and postcolonialist people are supporting Palestine (anti-government people, university students/academics, educated people, Muslim immigrants, LGBT groups, BLM, countries like Sweden and Ireland, people with "conspiracy theories"), while "pro-West" and center-right politically people support more on average Israel.

    -

    Although with some overlapping, Ukraine vs Russia had a bit different mix of the support and opposition in the West.

    Ukraine was seen as a weak country, fighting the strong country Russia. Ukraine was viewed as the romantic partisans fighting against the Russian imperialism. Both Russia and Ukraine are non-Western, second world countries. But Ukraine signals that it wants to join the West.

    So, a lot of the left-wing* in the West supports Ukraine, because they always want to support the weaker side against the stronger side. Also some of the right-wing, pro-Western people support Ukraine, because Ukraine since Euromaidan signals it wants to join the West.*

    But far-right and far-left both support Russia against Ukraine.**

    Also because Russia against Ukraine, it is two white countries fighting each other, a lot of the postcolonial people feel it was distracting against their objective. While the Israel vs Palestine conflict can return to the "anti-colonial theme" and returns to the earlier 2020s culture war of BLM etc.


    -
    *Including LGBT groups support Ukraine. These groups also support Palestine against Israel. Even although Israel is full of LGBT flags and people with purple hair, while Ukraine is conservative in relation to LGBT. Also Russia would be viewed as an LGBT paradise in relation to Palestine.

    **Politically far-right and far-left Western people also are likely almost all supporting Palestine against Israel.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mikel

    What you are describing is general guidelines for the distribution of sympathies towards both sides of the Israel/Arab conflict in Western Europe (not sure about EE). But one shouldn’t confuse general sympathy or proclivity with actual support for any one side. My experience with many people of different Western European countries is that very few people feel the need to side with one or the other.

    As G_R said, it’s a tedious issue that has been there forever in everyone’s lifetimes and it’s difficult to feel that anyone can do much about it or even say anything new about it. Israel is generally seen as much closer socially to us so it could potentially get much more support but, on the one hand, there is the very heavy-handed tactics that they always use and on the other hand, the religious thing that, to some extent or the other, leads Israelis to have further expansionists tendencies is also perceived as alienating.

    The only more or less novel thing that I could say is that here in the US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe (with the apparent exception of Germany) and there is also a very important religious component that is absent in Europe. Mormons seem to be as supportive of Israel as evangelicals, which is not surprising considering the central role that Israel plays in their sacred books. Utah is full of Jewish toponyms everywhere: Nephi, Lehi, Zion, Moab, Nebo, Kanab,… People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Mikel


    People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.
     
    Woah. I have never seen an Israeli flag or a Ukraine flag displayed in my zip code. No bumper stickers, lapel pins, or t-shirts. No stupidity displays at that level of crude.

    On the other hand Anglin's comment threads are . . . I don't know what to say about Anglin's comment threads. And I have commented in them! : )
    , @Dmitry
    @Mikel


    US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe
     
    In many of the Western Europe countries, the media has anti-Israel views. If you look in Republic of Ireland or United Kingdom.

    In Republic of Ireland, the main view is pro-Palestine and this is also in the media. It's similar for the Scandinavian societies.


    People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flag
     
    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.

    There is an overlap of the "pro-Western bloc" views which are encouraged in the Mormon culture and Cold War "Manichaeists'" perception of the external policy, which supports Ukraine.

    If you remember early 2022, excluding the populist Tucker Carlson side, the Republican Party was mainly supporting Ukraine from Cold War style of policy.

    It seems like this year, the Republican positions are becoming less pro-Ukraine, as the politicians are seeing the popularity of the more isolationist positions and accepting Trump will be the presidential candidate.

    But the geopolitics is returning more to blocs and a new Cold War. So, the external policy of even Trump might still be to support Ukraine, even if it is relatively more unpopular with the Republican voters.

    -

    By the way, there is an interesting documentary in 1987 about the war in Nicaragua. Reagan begins to support the Contras even without public support. But then Congress begins to talk about ending the funding for the Contras, then Reagan begins the PR policy for pro-Contras public views.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wUfevC9LHs.

    Replies: @Mikel

  125. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @German_reader

    Interesting that the public discourse in Germany is also so pro-Israel. Perhaps the historical guilt issue must be playing a role. I think that in the rest of Western Europe the Palestinians get plenty of public support but only as the victims of a quasi-colonial situation and the ones who always put the brunt of the civilian casualties. It's seldom an unrestricted support though, they started using terrorist tactics very early on (the Munich massacre, etc) and never made themselves too appealing to Western eyes. In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally. But I guess most Europeans share your lack of sympathy for any of both sides.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @Greasy William

    Earlier this evening I came out of the railway station in my shithole city and outside there was one of those digital advertising columns (hope that’s the right word, not sure), featuring this official announcement from the Bundestag:

    The German Bundestag
    Solidarity with Israel
    The German Bundestag stands firmly and determinedly on the side of Israel and her people

    Just ridiculous.

    In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally.

    They are idiots. I can’t say I like Palestinians on a personal level, and yes, their nihilistic terroristic tactics have always been pretty repellent. But Israel is still in the wrong with its occupation and colonization policies. There is nothing to be gained by supporting expansionist Zionism either, diaspora Jews will still keep pushing their anti-nationalist bs for everybody else, and if one’s unlucky one will be dragged into a catastrophic Mideast war. Really have nothing but contempt for those pro-Israel right-wingers and their bloodthirsty fantasies.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @German_reader


    They are idiots. I can’t say I like Palestinians on a personal level, and yes, their nihilistic terroristic tactics have always been pretty repellent. But Israel is still in the wrong with its occupation and colonization policies. There is nothing to be gained by supporting expansionist Zionism either, diaspora Jews will still keep pushing their anti-nationalist bs for everybody else, and if one’s unlucky one will be dragged into a catastrophic Mideast war. Really have nothing but contempt for those pro-Israel right-wingers and their bloodthirsty fantasies.

     

    The way that I see it, Israeli right-wingers have several flaws:

    1. Their treatment of the Palestinians
    2. Their treatment of Israelis of Jewish descent who aren't halakhically Jewish (some of them wanted to cancel Israel's Law of Return's Grandchild Clause before Israel's version of 9/11 occurred, when these plans were quietly shelved indefinitely)
    3. The refusal of Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men to work a lot or to do military service (they prefer engaging in Torah study while eating kosher Twinkies lol)

  126. German_reader says:
    @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    German politicians making self-flagellating approving statements about Allied bombing is painfully stupid.
    Prompted by Emil Nikola Richard's post on the proposed "Bat Bomb" I was discussing the civilian toll of Allied bombing of Germany and Japan with my wife. She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
    The disregard for civilians in WW2 by the Allies was horrific and any honest accounting of the history would recognize that there truly were no good guys.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. XYZ, @German_reader

    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.

    There were others in WW2 which were somewhat similar:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Lancastria
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_hospital_ship_Armenia

    Anyway, I normally don’t even think there’s much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2. But there’s something profoundly warped about those militant Westerners who always believe they’re re-fighting WW2 and get off on rather extreme fantasies about cathartic violence and collective punishment. It’s a type that seems to have proliferated in Germany in recent years, strange phenomenon.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    Thanks for those.

    I think the reason it irritates me, or my wife for that matter, so much is that, living in 'Murica we have had WW2 heroic triumphalist narratives spoon fed to us from earliest childhood. It's just everywhere whether in pop culture or history books and yet is far from reality.

    So, especially raising and home-schooling a bunch of kids we really want to provide a more accurate rendition. This boils down pretty simply really...War is Hell and there are rarely any truly Good Guys on the State level.

    There was a movie that has always stuck with me called


    Grave of the Fireflies
     
    which is really a WW2 movie, but told from the perspective of a pair of Japanese orphans who are cast adrift after the end of the Allied bombing campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grave_of_the_Fireflies

    My Dad ended up bring the film home when I was around 12 and I found it to be a completely enthralling yet crushing movie. It is still one of my favorite movies of all time.

    It's kind of funny that my Dad picked it up since he was more into Steven Segal/ Chuck Norris type campy action movies which I disliked and avoided. I asked him about a year ago if he remembered it out of curiosity on why he picked it out, but he didn't have any recollection of it.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @AnonfromTN
    @German_reader


    I normally don’t even think there’s much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2
     
    Generally speaking, no. However, history has predictive value. We must remember what countries bombed Dresden, killing and maiming thousands of civilians. We must also remember that a different country kicked Nazis out of Dresden. Every country has its specialization, and those do not change.
  127. “The US has gone through 96% of the funds that it has currently allocated for Ukraine, national security council spokesperson John Kirby has told reporters.

    The US believes that Ukraine can win back its territory, Kirby said, but acknowledged that progress had been slow, Reuters reports.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/08/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-avdiivka-zelenskiy-putin#pinned-post

  128. @German_reader
    @Barbarossa


    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
     
    There were others in WW2 which were somewhat similar:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Lancastria
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_hospital_ship_Armenia

    Anyway, I normally don't even think there's much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2. But there's something profoundly warped about those militant Westerners who always believe they're re-fighting WW2 and get off on rather extreme fantasies about cathartic violence and collective punishment. It's a type that seems to have proliferated in Germany in recent years, strange phenomenon.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @AnonfromTN

    Thanks for those.

    I think the reason it irritates me, or my wife for that matter, so much is that, living in ‘Murica we have had WW2 heroic triumphalist narratives spoon fed to us from earliest childhood. It’s just everywhere whether in pop culture or history books and yet is far from reality.

    So, especially raising and home-schooling a bunch of kids we really want to provide a more accurate rendition. This boils down pretty simply really…War is Hell and there are rarely any truly Good Guys on the State level.

    There was a movie that has always stuck with me called

    Grave of the Fireflies

    which is really a WW2 movie, but told from the perspective of a pair of Japanese orphans who are cast adrift after the end of the Allied bombing campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grave_of_the_Fireflies

    My Dad ended up bring the film home when I was around 12 and I found it to be a completely enthralling yet crushing movie. It is still one of my favorite movies of all time.

    It’s kind of funny that my Dad picked it up since he was more into Steven Segal/ Chuck Norris type campy action movies which I disliked and avoided. I asked him about a year ago if he remembered it out of curiosity on why he picked it out, but he didn’t have any recollection of it.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Barbarossa


    Grave of the Fireflies
     
    I've heard of it. Don't think I'm going to watch it though, doesn't sound very cheerful.

    Haven't read anything specifically about the American bombing campaign against Japan. I did read John Dower's War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism tbh, but it contains a lot of interesting information (also about the Japanese and how they perceived the war and subject peoples in their conquered territories).
    Regarding the air war in Europe I liked Richard Overy's The bombing war, which deals with pretty much everything one could ask for (even subjects that are usually neglected, like German bombing in the Soviet Union or the impact of the air war on Italy). Haven't seen anything more profound since, most of the opinions one reads on the subject aren't very interesting anyway, either justifying bombing as collective punishment or condemning it as war crimes...if you've seen one argument of either type, you've seen them all.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

  129. German_reader says:
    @Barbarossa
    @German_reader

    Thanks for those.

    I think the reason it irritates me, or my wife for that matter, so much is that, living in 'Murica we have had WW2 heroic triumphalist narratives spoon fed to us from earliest childhood. It's just everywhere whether in pop culture or history books and yet is far from reality.

    So, especially raising and home-schooling a bunch of kids we really want to provide a more accurate rendition. This boils down pretty simply really...War is Hell and there are rarely any truly Good Guys on the State level.

    There was a movie that has always stuck with me called


    Grave of the Fireflies
     
    which is really a WW2 movie, but told from the perspective of a pair of Japanese orphans who are cast adrift after the end of the Allied bombing campaign.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grave_of_the_Fireflies

    My Dad ended up bring the film home when I was around 12 and I found it to be a completely enthralling yet crushing movie. It is still one of my favorite movies of all time.

    It's kind of funny that my Dad picked it up since he was more into Steven Segal/ Chuck Norris type campy action movies which I disliked and avoided. I asked him about a year ago if he remembered it out of curiosity on why he picked it out, but he didn't have any recollection of it.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Grave of the Fireflies

    I’ve heard of it. Don’t think I’m going to watch it though, doesn’t sound very cheerful.

    Haven’t read anything specifically about the American bombing campaign against Japan. I did read John Dower’s War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism tbh, but it contains a lot of interesting information (also about the Japanese and how they perceived the war and subject peoples in their conquered territories).
    Regarding the air war in Europe I liked Richard Overy’s The bombing war, which deals with pretty much everything one could ask for (even subjects that are usually neglected, like German bombing in the Soviet Union or the impact of the air war on Italy). Haven’t seen anything more profound since, most of the opinions one reads on the subject aren’t very interesting anyway, either justifying bombing as collective punishment or condemning it as war crimes…if you’ve seen one argument of either type, you’ve seen them all.

    • Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @German_reader


    John Dower’s War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism
     
    The conceit of that book is bogus-- the Japanese got lighter post-war treatment than Germans. Probably has to do with this, but Dowers is not going to touch that subject.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_settlement_in_the_Japanese_Empire

    Beijing in 1939 under Japanese occupation. Yeah, brutal, sadistic

    https://i.postimg.cc/0jhSPkTR/351336678-1189974401650984-4882577080419282942-n.jpg

    https://i.postimg.cc/J4Jx0vPc/351805371-791258149107324-6273210394278445345-n.jpg

    This was the Zhongnanhai pool, open to public. Ten years later CCP liberated it and became Mao's private pool. Which he used to take advantage of Khrushchev.

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/khrushchev-in-water-wings-on-mao-humiliation-and-the-sino-soviet-split-80852370/

    https://twitter.com/zhu0588/status/1715117553331396974

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    , @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @German_reader


    I did read John Dower’s War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism tbh, but it contains a lot of interesting information (also about the Japanese and how they perceived the war and subject peoples in their conquered territories).
     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-taQFhbwAAgnm-.jpg



    Bryan Mark Rigg's new book "Japan's holocaust" will undoubtedly be one of the most important history books this year.

    Here's how the author himself introduces the book (Rigg is undoubtedly one of the most highly regarded authors today on World War II ):

    "Japan’s Holocaust combines research conducted in over eighteen research facilities in five nations to explore Imperial Japan’s atrocities from 1927 to 1945 during its military expansions and reckless campaigns throughout Asia and the Pacific. This book brings together the most recent scholarship and new primary research to ascertain that Japan claimed a minimum of thirty million lives, slaughtering far more than Hitler. Japan’s Holocaust shows that Emperor Hirohito not only knew about the atrocities his legions committed, but actually ordered them. He did nothing to stop them when they exceeded even the most depraved person’s imagination, as illustrated during the Rape of Nanking as well as many other events. Japan’s Holocaust will document in painful detail that the Rape of Nanking was not an isolated event during the Asian War but rather representative of how Japan behaved for all its campaigns throughout Asia and the Pacific from 1927 to 1945.

    Mass murder, rape, and economic exploitation was Japan’s modus operandi during this time period, and whereas Hitler’s SS Death’s Head outfits attempted to hide their atrocities, Hirohito’s legions committed their atrocities out in the open with fanfare and enthusiasm. Moreover, whereas Germany has done much since World War II to atone for its crimes and to document them, Japan has been absolutely disgraceful with its reparations for its crimes and in its efforts to educate its population about its wartime past. Shockingly, Japan continues, in general, to glorify is criminals and its wartime past."

    Replies: @German_reader

  130. @Mikel
    @Dmitry

    What you are describing is general guidelines for the distribution of sympathies towards both sides of the Israel/Arab conflict in Western Europe (not sure about EE). But one shouldn't confuse general sympathy or proclivity with actual support for any one side. My experience with many people of different Western European countries is that very few people feel the need to side with one or the other.

    As G_R said, it's a tedious issue that has been there forever in everyone's lifetimes and it's difficult to feel that anyone can do much about it or even say anything new about it. Israel is generally seen as much closer socially to us so it could potentially get much more support but, on the one hand, there is the very heavy-handed tactics that they always use and on the other hand, the religious thing that, to some extent or the other, leads Israelis to have further expansionists tendencies is also perceived as alienating.

    The only more or less novel thing that I could say is that here in the US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe (with the apparent exception of Germany) and there is also a very important religious component that is absent in Europe. Mormons seem to be as supportive of Israel as evangelicals, which is not surprising considering the central role that Israel plays in their sacred books. Utah is full of Jewish toponyms everywhere: Nephi, Lehi, Zion, Moab, Nebo, Kanab,... People around me who didn't express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

    People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.

    Woah. I have never seen an Israeli flag or a Ukraine flag displayed in my zip code. No bumper stickers, lapel pins, or t-shirts. No stupidity displays at that level of crude.

    On the other hand Anglin’s comment threads are . . . I don’t know what to say about Anglin’s comment threads. And I have commented in them! : )

  131. @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation
     
    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred. I've always been rather partial to that view myself.

    It's hardly so handy for selling blockbuster Evangelical action series though!

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack

    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred.

    Hmmm… If we are past Revelations, is this Purgatory?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    All political indications point to "yes", LOL.

    More seriously though, I think that people obsessing over Revelations is a waste of time. Things will happen how they happen when they happen regardless of how much one worries over it. I refuse to give much spiritual/ brain space to worrying about the end of the world.

    Jesus gave plenty of actionable instructions on how to relate to others and God which should take way more precedence in people's minds than geeking out over prophecy, especially since 100% of those who have predicted the end of the world have been wrong thus far. Prophecy obsession can be a dangerous distraction for a lot of Christians.

    Replies: @silviosilver

  132. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You restated your nonsense. Why? We know that you hate Russians and will deny the nose between your eyes about Nato. Maybe follow John Mearsheimer, he is easy to find. You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won't change anything.


    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices
     
    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas - the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    Finland used to export to Russia and get most of its raw materials at very low prices - it is built into the geography, get a map. Many Finnish firms made most of their profits that way and closing itself off from Russia hurts the Finnish economy. They will pay more and sell less, they are not exactly able to reorient.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it - why don't you? Being in Nato does nothing: Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business - the cocain-smoking floozie really screwed them, didn't she?

    Replies: @John Johnson

    You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won’t change anything.

    Stop making stuff up.

    Go ahead and quote me or let everyone see that you can’t respond without using your imagination.

    I never said NATO was moving to Ukraine. In fact I’ve cited the article where NATO said that Ukraine still doesn’t qualify:
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-nato-membership-can-join-when-allies-agree-conditions-are-met-leaders-say/

    I don’t know if Ukraine will join NATO. Of course they would like to join at this point. Who wouldn’t want protection after being invaded by a larger power? However they could stay out as part of a deal with Russia. Or a country like Turkey could decide to vote against them.

    I am also on record stating that they don’t need to join NATO for the sake of their own security. In 5 years this type of invasion will be even more difficult. The drone swarms will be ready which will make moving tanks and armored vehicles near impossible. China could in fact lose in an invasion if Taiwan prepares properly. The Taiwanese president however is a bit of a nitwit so that is up in the air.

    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices

    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas – the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    G7 countries are imposing a price cap. Russia however of course sells at market rate to non-G7 countries and the cap is basically an honor system. But the point is that Russia will sell oil to its own political opponents. They’re not going to cut oil to Finland for joining NATO. Finland doesn’t need anything else from Russia. Their main trade partners are Western.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it – why don’t you? Being in Nato does nothing

    NATO protects you from Russian invasion. Putin’s henchmen are on video talking about how they should have taken the Baltics when they had the chance. They have TV debates where they speak of the Baltics as lost territories. Russians seem to think their borders should go to Germany and some even still want Eastern Germany. This mentality of Russians assuming their neighbors belong to them was described by the British over 100 years ago.

    Moldova has neutrality in their constitution and Belarus leaked the Russian invasion plan that showed them as next.

    Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business

    LOL you really must be imagining another dictator. Putin rants about all kinds of countries and then sells them oil. Why hasn’t he passed sanctions on Finland? Yea I’m sure he’ll get right on that.

    The dwarf is just out to conquer. He would have taken Finland or Kazakhstan if he had known that Ukraine would kick his tanks out of Kiev. Putin is on record stating that it was a shame that the USSR collapsed. A fake Christian if there ever was one. He tried recreating the Russian empire and was pushed back to Donbas.

    Eliminating the Ukrainian identity is a Russian fantasy. They view Ukrainians as snobbish half-Westerners. The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood and don’t have all the random conquered people of the Russian empire. Quite strange that White nationalists like Anglin support Putin when Russia is the multi-racial/multi-religious empire and Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,...) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won't be in Nato - Russia won that part of the war.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources - remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works, Finland prospers. When the border is restricted, Finland does worse. Ask any Finnish businessman.

    Selling is not the point. It is about "selling for how much" - by joining Nato Finland switched to paying more, selling less to Russia and with higher costs. If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target - up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.

    Your fabulation about Russia "invading Finland next" or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance. Are Russians invading Bretagne next for the oysters? If we judge countries by the loose talk on shows or made-up spy leaks we will live in paranoia. Have you seen some of the nuts on the American shows? What does that have to with anything?


    The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood...Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.
     
    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood? no kidding...so why are they self-destructing like lemmings? Are Nordics into that too? It looks like that occasionally.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The "Nordic" ideology lost the biggest war in human history, WW2 - and Russia won it. You can't go back and redo it. We are living with the consequences and only an idiot would try to reverse it. Good luck.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @sudden death

  133. @Mikel
    @German_reader

    Interesting that the public discourse in Germany is also so pro-Israel. Perhaps the historical guilt issue must be playing a role. I think that in the rest of Western Europe the Palestinians get plenty of public support but only as the victims of a quasi-colonial situation and the ones who always put the brunt of the civilian casualties. It's seldom an unrestricted support though, they started using terrorist tactics very early on (the Munich massacre, etc) and never made themselves too appealing to Western eyes. In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally. But I guess most Europeans share your lack of sympathy for any of both sides.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader, @Greasy William

    The dirty secret of the Israeli Arab conflict is that, for all the murderous passion it generates, the overwhelming majority of humanity really doesn’t care either way. One side could literally genocide the other and I seriously think that 90% of all people in the world (outside of Jews and Arabs/Muslims, I mean) wouldn’t give a shit.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Greasy William

    No, I don't think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.

    Btw, I'm not sure how serious you are about those Gog and Magog predictions, probably not much, but the other day I actually checked some of the literature you cited and I don't understand where your Ecclesiastes calculations come from. You mentioned "28 epics in the book of Ecclesiastes. 214 years of history for each epic" but I don't see any of that in several online Ecclesiastes resources I consulted, for example here: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes%201&version=NIV

    Not that I've read the whole thing but it doesn't seem to contain anything of what you talked about. Are you sure you're using the right sources for your prophecies or is it all just a joke?

    Replies: @Greasy William

  134. @AP
    @Coconuts


    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.
     
    A friend from my university days, back in the early 90s, was from one of the former Soviet republics between Russia and Iran. When he got a US drivers license he listed his race as Caucasian. The woman working there disputed that he was Caucasian, inquiring if perhaps he was Hispanic. His response -

    “If I’m not Caucasian, then who is Caucasian”?

    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.

    A very close and prominent friend of the Aliyev family who rules over Azerbaijan?

  135. @AP
    @Coconuts


    People in Eastern/Central Europe who have duskier complexions or maybe look more central Asian might be able to avoid it, if they could be placed in the Latino or Asian by looks category in the US.
     
    A friend from my university days, back in the early 90s, was from one of the former Soviet republics between Russia and Iran. When he got a US drivers license he listed his race as Caucasian. The woman working there disputed that he was Caucasian, inquiring if perhaps he was Hispanic. His response -

    “If I’m not Caucasian, then who is Caucasian”?

    I sometimes see his name in the news when his country does something newsworthy.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Mr. XYZ

    BTW, interesting story: When my mom went to the doctor’s office (I think that it was the doctor’s office, at least) and one of the paperwork asked about race, my mom inquired as to what “Caucasian” means. My parents are originally from Russia, so it’s a completely understandable question because from a Russian perspective, “Caucasian” means someone from the Caucasus. The Korean lady/secretary who was speaking to my mother moved her mouth near my mom’s ear, covered her mouth with her hand, and extremely quietly said “White”.

  136. @German_reader
    @Mikel

    Earlier this evening I came out of the railway station in my shithole city and outside there was one of those digital advertising columns (hope that's the right word, not sure), featuring this official announcement from the Bundestag:


    The German Bundestag
    Solidarity with Israel
    The German Bundestag stands firmly and determinedly on the side of Israel and her people
     
    Just ridiculous.

    In fact, support for Israel is common among European right wingers who regard Palestinians as too alien civilizationally.
     
    They are idiots. I can't say I like Palestinians on a personal level, and yes, their nihilistic terroristic tactics have always been pretty repellent. But Israel is still in the wrong with its occupation and colonization policies. There is nothing to be gained by supporting expansionist Zionism either, diaspora Jews will still keep pushing their anti-nationalist bs for everybody else, and if one's unlucky one will be dragged into a catastrophic Mideast war. Really have nothing but contempt for those pro-Israel right-wingers and their bloodthirsty fantasies.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    They are idiots. I can’t say I like Palestinians on a personal level, and yes, their nihilistic terroristic tactics have always been pretty repellent. But Israel is still in the wrong with its occupation and colonization policies. There is nothing to be gained by supporting expansionist Zionism either, diaspora Jews will still keep pushing their anti-nationalist bs for everybody else, and if one’s unlucky one will be dragged into a catastrophic Mideast war. Really have nothing but contempt for those pro-Israel right-wingers and their bloodthirsty fantasies.

    The way that I see it, Israeli right-wingers have several flaws:

    1. Their treatment of the Palestinians
    2. Their treatment of Israelis of Jewish descent who aren’t halakhically Jewish (some of them wanted to cancel Israel’s Law of Return’s Grandchild Clause before Israel’s version of 9/11 occurred, when these plans were quietly shelved indefinitely)
    3. The refusal of Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men to work a lot or to do military service (they prefer engaging in Torah study while eating kosher Twinkies lol)

  137. @German_reader
    @Barbarossa


    Grave of the Fireflies
     
    I've heard of it. Don't think I'm going to watch it though, doesn't sound very cheerful.

    Haven't read anything specifically about the American bombing campaign against Japan. I did read John Dower's War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism tbh, but it contains a lot of interesting information (also about the Japanese and how they perceived the war and subject peoples in their conquered territories).
    Regarding the air war in Europe I liked Richard Overy's The bombing war, which deals with pretty much everything one could ask for (even subjects that are usually neglected, like German bombing in the Soviet Union or the impact of the air war on Italy). Haven't seen anything more profound since, most of the opinions one reads on the subject aren't very interesting anyway, either justifying bombing as collective punishment or condemning it as war crimes...if you've seen one argument of either type, you've seen them all.

    Replies: @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    John Dower’s War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism

    The conceit of that book is bogus– the Japanese got lighter post-war treatment than Germans. Probably has to do with this, but Dowers is not going to touch that subject.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_settlement_in_the_Japanese_Empire

    Beijing in 1939 under Japanese occupation. Yeah, brutal, sadistic

    This was the Zhongnanhai pool, open to public. Ten years later CCP liberated it and became Mao’s private pool. Which he used to take advantage of Khrushchev.

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/khrushchev-in-water-wings-on-mao-humiliation-and-the-sino-soviet-split-80852370/

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT3yQ4d3cRkdBJeayAeS4JLP-JTMw__ZcDHUQ&usqp.jpg



    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSqvTJZMF7NVJa7dkJvluaTkK__qLS433QHcw&usqp.jpg

  138. @A123
    @Barbarossa


    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred.
     
    Hmmm... If we are past Revelations, is this Purgatory?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    All political indications point to “yes”, LOL.

    More seriously though, I think that people obsessing over Revelations is a waste of time. Things will happen how they happen when they happen regardless of how much one worries over it. I refuse to give much spiritual/ brain space to worrying about the end of the world.

    Jesus gave plenty of actionable instructions on how to relate to others and God which should take way more precedence in people’s minds than geeking out over prophecy, especially since 100% of those who have predicted the end of the world have been wrong thus far. Prophecy obsession can be a dangerous distraction for a lot of Christians.

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Barbarossa


    More seriously though, I think that people obsessing over Revelations is a waste of time. Things will happen how they happen when they happen regardless of how much one worries over it. I refuse to give much spiritual/ brain space to worrying about the end of the world.
     
    My favorite is Revelation-based prophecy is one I heard from Bart Ehrman, about a certain Edgar Whisenant, who wrote a book "88 Reasons Why The Rapture Will Be In 1988." (Apparently it sold a couple million copies - I'm in the wrong biz!) He'd gotten the date of Jesus's return down to from 11th to 13th September, 1988. When people pointed out that scripture said "no man knows the hour or the day of Christ's return," he replied, "I don't know the hour or the day - I just know the week." :)
  139. @Greasy William
    @Mikel

    The dirty secret of the Israeli Arab conflict is that, for all the murderous passion it generates, the overwhelming majority of humanity really doesn't care either way. One side could literally genocide the other and I seriously think that 90% of all people in the world (outside of Jews and Arabs/Muslims, I mean) wouldn't give a shit.

    Replies: @Mikel

    No, I don’t think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.

    Btw, I’m not sure how serious you are about those Gog and Magog predictions, probably not much, but the other day I actually checked some of the literature you cited and I don’t understand where your Ecclesiastes calculations come from. You mentioned “28 epics in the book of Ecclesiastes. 214 years of history for each epic” but I don’t see any of that in several online Ecclesiastes resources I consulted, for example here: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes%201&version=NIV

    Not that I’ve read the whole thing but it doesn’t seem to contain anything of what you talked about. Are you sure you’re using the right sources for your prophecies or is it all just a joke?

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Mikel


    No, I don’t think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.
     
    I think you overestimate humanity. But if your right, that's a good thing, I guess.

    Not that I’ve read the whole thing but it doesn’t seem to contain anything of what you talked about.
     
    Some of the prophecies I understand and some of them I really don't. I admit that I don't get the Ecclesiates one. I also don't get the the one about why Gog and Magog has to happen in either 2027 or 2030.

    I base my predictions on a few things:
    1. Even if the prophecies are bullshit, Magog is 100%, without a doubt, Russia. The Magogites are uncircumcised Indo Europeans from the remotest part of the north, and Moscow metro and Jerusalem metro latitudinally overlap. Magog is clearly Russia and anyone who says otherwise is gay.
    2. The Vilna Gaon said that the first signal that Gog/Magog was coming would be the Russian invasion of Crimea (although he admittedly also said some other stuff about Turkey that doesn't seem to apply, at least not yet)
    3. That Al Asqua Flood was as successful as it was could only have happened via Divine intervention. This is indisputable. There is no way that even an organization as incompetent as the IDF could have fucked up that catastrophically purely by chance.
    4. The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left. I myself have already lost two white American friends who have gone completely out of their minds with antisemitic rage since the massacre on the 7th. This level of antisemitism means that something big is coming, and coming soon.
    5. The Zohar says that the war of Gog and Magog begins via a massive Ishmaelite attack on the Jewish people in the Land of Israel at the end of Sukkot.
    6. Gog and Magog is supposed to happen before the year 5800 on the Jewish calendar
    7. There were 15 judges of biblical Israel before a proper kingdom was formed. The 4th judge was a woman. A biblical judge was extremely similar to what we today call a prime minister. The fourth PM of the modern state of Israel was a woman. Bibi is the 15th PM of the state of Israel.
    8. Russia is clearly gearing up for a confrontation with Israel. Judaism has always held that Russia is the Third Rome (and Russia has always regarded itself as such). The United States is in terminal decline but it isn't dead yet; a Russian confrontation with Israel means a Russian confrontation with the United States. And a Russian confrontation with the United States means a nuclear exchange.

    To me that's a pretty convincing case. And that's without even adding the stuff that I don't get but sounds legit when I listen to others explain it.

    Replies: @Mikel, @ShortOnTime

  140. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @German_reader


    John Dower’s War without mercy about the Pacific war more generally. Found it annoying in parts with its somewhat preachy antiracism
     
    The conceit of that book is bogus-- the Japanese got lighter post-war treatment than Germans. Probably has to do with this, but Dowers is not going to touch that subject.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_settlement_in_the_Japanese_Empire

    Beijing in 1939 under Japanese occupation. Yeah, brutal, sadistic

    https://i.postimg.cc/0jhSPkTR/351336678-1189974401650984-4882577080419282942-n.jpg

    https://i.postimg.cc/J4Jx0vPc/351805371-791258149107324-6273210394278445345-n.jpg

    This was the Zhongnanhai pool, open to public. Ten years later CCP liberated it and became Mao's private pool. Which he used to take advantage of Khrushchev.

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/khrushchev-in-water-wings-on-mao-humiliation-and-the-sino-soviet-split-80852370/

    https://twitter.com/zhu0588/status/1715117553331396974

    Replies: @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    [MORE]

  141. “I feel that I have been playing such a psychological war with my Chinese counterparts for many years. In this sense, the Chinese are completely different from the South Koreans, whose only tactic is to toss the chess board upside down.”

    [MORE]

  142. @Mikel
    @Greasy William

    No, I don't think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.

    Btw, I'm not sure how serious you are about those Gog and Magog predictions, probably not much, but the other day I actually checked some of the literature you cited and I don't understand where your Ecclesiastes calculations come from. You mentioned "28 epics in the book of Ecclesiastes. 214 years of history for each epic" but I don't see any of that in several online Ecclesiastes resources I consulted, for example here: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes%201&version=NIV

    Not that I've read the whole thing but it doesn't seem to contain anything of what you talked about. Are you sure you're using the right sources for your prophecies or is it all just a joke?

    Replies: @Greasy William

    No, I don’t think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.

    I think you overestimate humanity. But if your right, that’s a good thing, I guess.

    Not that I’ve read the whole thing but it doesn’t seem to contain anything of what you talked about.

    Some of the prophecies I understand and some of them I really don’t. I admit that I don’t get the Ecclesiates one. I also don’t get the the one about why Gog and Magog has to happen in either 2027 or 2030.

    I base my predictions on a few things:
    1. Even if the prophecies are bullshit, Magog is 100%, without a doubt, Russia. The Magogites are uncircumcised Indo Europeans from the remotest part of the north, and Moscow metro and Jerusalem metro latitudinally overlap. Magog is clearly Russia and anyone who says otherwise is gay.
    2. The Vilna Gaon said that the first signal that Gog/Magog was coming would be the Russian invasion of Crimea (although he admittedly also said some other stuff about Turkey that doesn’t seem to apply, at least not yet)
    3. That Al Asqua Flood was as successful as it was could only have happened via Divine intervention. This is indisputable. There is no way that even an organization as incompetent as the IDF could have fucked up that catastrophically purely by chance.
    4. The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left. I myself have already lost two white American friends who have gone completely out of their minds with antisemitic rage since the massacre on the 7th. This level of antisemitism means that something big is coming, and coming soon.
    5. The Zohar says that the war of Gog and Magog begins via a massive Ishmaelite attack on the Jewish people in the Land of Israel at the end of Sukkot.
    6. Gog and Magog is supposed to happen before the year 5800 on the Jewish calendar
    7. There were 15 judges of biblical Israel before a proper kingdom was formed. The 4th judge was a woman. A biblical judge was extremely similar to what we today call a prime minister. The fourth PM of the modern state of Israel was a woman. Bibi is the 15th PM of the state of Israel.
    8. Russia is clearly gearing up for a confrontation with Israel. Judaism has always held that Russia is the Third Rome (and Russia has always regarded itself as such). The United States is in terminal decline but it isn’t dead yet; a Russian confrontation with Israel means a Russian confrontation with the United States. And a Russian confrontation with the United States means a nuclear exchange.

    To me that’s a pretty convincing case. And that’s without even adding the stuff that I don’t get but sounds legit when I listen to others explain it.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Greasy William

    You're obviously kidding. I checked Ecclesiastes because it looked like an easy one to verify lol.

    Anyway, this thing with some American lefties demonstrating against Israel must be primarily an action-reaction phenomenon. You can't have these levels of high volume, non-stop pro-Israel propaganda going on without some people going bananas in the opposite direction. It's a natural human reaction. In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason. Netanyahu is an innocent dove compared to most Republicans. And I don't know what's left to say for these candidates on the rest of the issues, especially when they don't get to confront the big showman.

    Replies: @German_reader

    , @ShortOnTime
    @Greasy William

    I don't think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.

    Btw, I can't believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu's own personal memoirs a few years ago lol. Especially since they're incomplete now anyway.


    The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left.

     

    I find it amusing lol. You're absolutely right that those most opposed to Jews/Israel are actually Leftists and Jihad minded Muslims.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such "education" doesn't work on those groups. Leftists just throw the Holocaust and Jewish victimhood right back at Jews in their left-wing ideological paradigms ("Jews and Israel are the real Nazis"). Muslims never really cared about the Holocaust anyway.

    But the whole "anti-Semitism" term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples. That includes all Arabs with even Ethiopians and Somalis. So by this logic Jews are anti-Semitic insofar as they're anti-Arab and also anti-Ethiopian (the lost tribes of Israel issue in Africa needs more research) since Jews are anti-goyim in general. It's also questionable to what extent Jews are actually "Semitic" at all since there's Khazarian and European admixture (I'm not sure about how true Palestinian claims of Jewish settlers just being Poles and Hungarians of the Jewish faith is true either).

    "Free Free Palestine, Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea" could be added to "Holocaust no excuse for Palestine" after all, since the latter is connected to the former.

    But for anyone that's not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro, but not beyond one night, since even the way Ben Shapiro talks is obnoxious enough and that sort of thing runs in the family.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @German_reader

  143. German_reader says:

    Greasy William’s comment inspired me to do some googling and I found this gem:
    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/current-events-in-ukraine-the-vilna-gaon-on-moshiach/

    Contains some funny stuff about Ukraine too:

    Historically the Ukrainian and Russian people have not treated Jews well. Stalin killed more people than Hitler; they were both evil. Vladamir Putin, the current leader of Russia, seems to approve of Stalin. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are guilty of murdering many Jews. Having a JINO (Jew In Name Only) president, does not whitewash the horrible crimes of the Ukrainian people against the Jews. Forgetting the crimes perpetrated against our people is a disgrace to the memory of our holy martyrs who died in G-d’s name על קידוש השם.

    (1648-1657), Khmelnytsky Pogroms Cossacks, Crimean Tatars – murdered 30,000 Jews and completely destroyed 300 Jewish communities. From 1888 until today there is a “hero’s” statue dedicated to the honor or Bohdan Khmelnytsky (the murderer of Jews. Since 2001 it is registered as a monument of national importance. It is located in Kyviv and is the symbol of the city (I pray that a Russian rocket will blow it up soon). It’s a symbol of shame.

    • LOL: ShortOnTime, Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    That's quite a monument.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/%D0%9A%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%B2%2C_%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA_%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%A5%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%83.jpg/1024px-%D0%9A%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%B2%2C_%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA_%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%83_%D0%A5%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC%D1%83.jpg

    Nothing in wikipedia about cossack pogroms. The original inscription said something something unified Russia and it has been covered up.

    , @ShortOnTime
    @German_reader

    That has to be the most powerful links I've ever scrolled through.

    But to continue from the previous thread, I think Silviosilver clarified he was actually not a Serb but a Yugoslav. The more one researches Serbia/Yugoslavia the more one realizes those are 2 incompatible nationalities.

    Lots of interesting things can be said about Serbia. When one looks at all the types out there on Twitter/X focused on Serbia/Balkans, I wouldn't blame Serbs for being "nutters". Like imagine being exposed to types like that Gunther Fehlinger guy who became famous after calling to dismantle "genocide BRICS" and dismember Brazil and India, he even posted maps of alternative separatist statelets on "ex-Brazil" and "ex-India". Before becoming more famous for that I think he just constantly called on Serbia to be sanctioned, bombed, "Genocide Serbia" every single Tweet, etc. Crazy calls for constant NATO expansion and Atlanticist zealotry. He might be some sort of purposeful troll since he's from Austria but could be part of some prominent NATO/Euro-Atlantic Committee. IIRC, some time ago some Serbs doxxed Gunther's home address and the Austrian police responded in a thread to his complaint that they didn't take him seriously and he should just calm down. There is that saying that the Balkans begins in Austria.

    Otherwise Serbia's ties to Russia are obviously strongly rooted in Orthodox Christianity and historical-political connections over at least the last 2-3 centuries. Regarding current Serbia, I feel it will either end like Carthage in the 3rd Punic War (Carthaginian complaints about Numidian encroachment ignored; Serbia and Kosovo Albanians with surprisingly many Cato equivalents out there calling for Serbia to be destroyed) or really just sack of Carthage in 146 BC (Baghdad 2003 is a less severe but more recent version), or Serbia will somehow make a major turnaround like September 15th, 1918 when Serbia broke through the Macedonian front and had its moment sort of close to Balkan hegemony (thrown away with Yugoslavia of course). I was reminded of the latter as I brushed up on my WW1 history of Eastern Europe for the discussion with AP by reading a WW1 book. Serbia's breakthrough with the Entente in Macedonia is underrated since it was almost like reverse Gavrilo Princip assassination that triggered a WW1 spiral as the Macedonian breakthrough led to a WW1 winding down spiral instead.

    I tried reading Rebecca West's Black Lamb and Grey Falcon a few years ago too but it was ridiculously long. Got stuck somewhere around the Adriatic Coast. Although it's a work about history, it's also some prominent English woman's travel monologue and she has firmly pro-Jewish and anti-German opinions in the inter-war Europe context. She stands out for having pro-Serb sympathies, which fell out of fashion in the West long ago, of course.

    Regarding Serbia and Kosovo after some browsing, in the current climate it feels like this isn't even newsworthy anymore:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjska_attack

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  144. @German_reader
    Greasy William's comment inspired me to do some googling and I found this gem:
    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/current-events-in-ukraine-the-vilna-gaon-on-moshiach/

    Contains some funny stuff about Ukraine too:

    Historically the Ukrainian and Russian people have not treated Jews well. Stalin killed more people than Hitler; they were both evil. Vladamir Putin, the current leader of Russia, seems to approve of Stalin. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are guilty of murdering many Jews. Having a JINO (Jew In Name Only) president, does not whitewash the horrible crimes of the Ukrainian people against the Jews. Forgetting the crimes perpetrated against our people is a disgrace to the memory of our holy martyrs who died in G-d’s name על קידוש השם.

    (1648-1657), Khmelnytsky Pogroms Cossacks, Crimean Tatars – murdered 30,000 Jews and completely destroyed 300 Jewish communities. From 1888 until today there is a “hero’s” statue dedicated to the honor or Bohdan Khmelnytsky (the murderer of Jews. Since 2001 it is registered as a monument of national importance. It is located in Kyviv and is the symbol of the city (I pray that a Russian rocket will blow it up soon). It’s a symbol of shame.

     

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @ShortOnTime

    That’s quite a monument.

    Nothing in wikipedia about cossack pogroms. The original inscription said something something unified Russia and it has been covered up.

  145. When you are living in a politically repressive society and cannot speak freely without fear of retribution its important to learn to express yourself elliptically and with tactful ambiguity.

    [MORE]

  146. @Greasy William
    @Mikel


    No, I don’t think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.
     
    I think you overestimate humanity. But if your right, that's a good thing, I guess.

    Not that I’ve read the whole thing but it doesn’t seem to contain anything of what you talked about.
     
    Some of the prophecies I understand and some of them I really don't. I admit that I don't get the Ecclesiates one. I also don't get the the one about why Gog and Magog has to happen in either 2027 or 2030.

    I base my predictions on a few things:
    1. Even if the prophecies are bullshit, Magog is 100%, without a doubt, Russia. The Magogites are uncircumcised Indo Europeans from the remotest part of the north, and Moscow metro and Jerusalem metro latitudinally overlap. Magog is clearly Russia and anyone who says otherwise is gay.
    2. The Vilna Gaon said that the first signal that Gog/Magog was coming would be the Russian invasion of Crimea (although he admittedly also said some other stuff about Turkey that doesn't seem to apply, at least not yet)
    3. That Al Asqua Flood was as successful as it was could only have happened via Divine intervention. This is indisputable. There is no way that even an organization as incompetent as the IDF could have fucked up that catastrophically purely by chance.
    4. The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left. I myself have already lost two white American friends who have gone completely out of their minds with antisemitic rage since the massacre on the 7th. This level of antisemitism means that something big is coming, and coming soon.
    5. The Zohar says that the war of Gog and Magog begins via a massive Ishmaelite attack on the Jewish people in the Land of Israel at the end of Sukkot.
    6. Gog and Magog is supposed to happen before the year 5800 on the Jewish calendar
    7. There were 15 judges of biblical Israel before a proper kingdom was formed. The 4th judge was a woman. A biblical judge was extremely similar to what we today call a prime minister. The fourth PM of the modern state of Israel was a woman. Bibi is the 15th PM of the state of Israel.
    8. Russia is clearly gearing up for a confrontation with Israel. Judaism has always held that Russia is the Third Rome (and Russia has always regarded itself as such). The United States is in terminal decline but it isn't dead yet; a Russian confrontation with Israel means a Russian confrontation with the United States. And a Russian confrontation with the United States means a nuclear exchange.

    To me that's a pretty convincing case. And that's without even adding the stuff that I don't get but sounds legit when I listen to others explain it.

    Replies: @Mikel, @ShortOnTime

    You’re obviously kidding. I checked Ecclesiastes because it looked like an easy one to verify lol.

    Anyway, this thing with some American lefties demonstrating against Israel must be primarily an action-reaction phenomenon. You can’t have these levels of high volume, non-stop pro-Israel propaganda going on without some people going bananas in the opposite direction. It’s a natural human reaction. In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason. Netanyahu is an innocent dove compared to most Republicans. And I don’t know what’s left to say for these candidates on the rest of the issues, especially when they don’t get to confront the big showman.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mikel


    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran. Which would be an absolute disaster, a lot worse than Iraq, and might be the final nail in the coffin of America's ever so benevolent hegemony. Also a good chance it will turn out very badly for Jews in the end since their ethnocentric lobbying efforts would be correctly identified as having played a major role in bringing about such a catastrophe.

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

  147. I’ll reply from the previous thread on key points and cutting out blockquotes, partly to save space. Let’s try keep it chronological.

    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical. It’s perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom just before its fall) or Catalan separatism against Spain. Perhaps even Canada vs USA since such hypothetical analogies (especially geopolitical alignment and foreign great power military alliances) about USA invading Canada devolving into trench war with Canadians then harping on about “ancient Canadian nationhood” sounding completely ridiculous and citing things like the War of 1812 (Canadian genesis only began in 19th century and Canadian distinction in WW1 participation along with French Quebec are only remarkable things about Canada historically, honestly). The 4chan analogy of a botched American invasion of Mexico to the current Ukraine War is apples and oranges comparison though, since Russia is not USA and Ukraine isn’t Mexico. Analogies can only be taken so far.

    Otherwise, the Rus fragmentation (connected decline of Piast Poland too) explains why Eastern Europe was easy prey for Mongols. Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more “Asian Muscovite savages” than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kiev_(1240)

    As for Pagan Lithuania, it’s actually very impressive that it punched above its own weight in its era (14th century especially). Repelling multiple invasions and raids from the Teutonic Knights, also exploiting Mongol and Tatar decline to take over Rus lands. Pagan Lithuania was the last Pagan kingdom in Europe until the 15th century (Paganism presumably persisted till 16th century).

    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight. Guaranteed lots of strife. Likely would’ve been better if Lithuania remained Pagan, but friction with Orthodox and especially Catholics was too much. Even among Lithuanians, there was a significant minority of Orthodox nobles and there were some civil wars contesting the union and Jogaila’s acquiescence to it (some of it was dynastic too admittedly, ie one prince wanted to rule instead of the incumbent without necessarily changing the union). Especially since Poland became the senior partner in the long term. Just one of many below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_Civil_War_(1389%E2%80%931392)

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible. Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians and Casimir III inviting Jews to jointly take part in exploiting subject populations, especially economically. Jesuit invitation too. The only good thing about the PLC was its confrontations with the Ottomans but that’s because the Ottomans chose to try expanding north from Bessarabia/Moldova and Ottoman conquest of Vienna would’ve been unacceptable for PLC (southern Ottoman border expanded).

    The anti-Jewish “pogroms” or really, riots, though pose a major historical riddle. If everyone in Ukraine was always Ukrainian with Russians never being a significant part of Ukraine, then that means Ukraine has an ugly track record of “anti-Semitism” as I saw Norman Finklestein discuss in a video. If the “pogroms” in Ukraine are Russia’s fault, the problem with that is that it means Ukraine is basically legitimately Russian, no matter how “anti-Semitic” one thinks Russians are. Perhaps on the Unz Review it’s easier to say that the “pogroms” have always been exaggerated, especially the ones in the Russian Empire in the few decades before WW1. Really they were just a bunch of street clashes between Jews vs Russians/Ukrainians since Jews had a disproportionate part in fomenting revolutionary unrest against the Tsardom and non-Jews in the Russian Empire had many legitimate grievances against Jews. The total of Jewish “victims” was only anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand overall. Pogroms weren’t directed by the Russian state as historical evidence in hindsight makes clear. The ones under Bogdan Khmelnitsky since 1648 were significantly larger in scope though (possibly a few 10s of 1000s) since it was a rebellion that morphed into an all out war and the pent up grievances against Jewish moneychangers and theft of Orthodox Church land was much larger and more repressed (Khmelnitsky rebelled over a vicious personal dispute with a Polish noble and the Polish Kings ineffective mediation). There was some chaos in WW1 and the Russian Civil War too. Anyway, the Jewish aspect of this is perhaps the most interesting of all.

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren’t Rus successor states), Polish nobles were tolerated until 19th century Polish rebellions. The Romanovs had notable success in undoing Uniatism in Galicia, Western Ukraine and Belarus. I even took the time to read some of Adam Zamoyski’s works (who’s devotedly pro-PLC), and even he acknowledged in his book Poland: A History, that most of the rebellions against Russia in Lithuania were actually just Polish nobles (until 1860’s iirc, sort of), with Lithuanian peasants having no interest in taking part. Same for Belarus and Ukraine parts with Polish nobles.

    In the 19th century it’s true proto-Ukrainians took some more hold. Really any record of Ukrainians as anything more than regionally distinct “Ruthenians”/”Little Rus” from Russians before 18th century is weak. Although even Putin in his text on the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians acknowledges things like the Elms Ukaz of 1876.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion and one may dare say, apostasy, can be very powerful.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia with Poland strong-arming Ukrainians to cede Galicia which Ukrainian Rada acceded to since they thought that concession and prospective Polish help against Bolsheviks was worth it. Pretty obvious Poland picked a fight with Bolsheviks and even Whites when it intervened in Ukraine then. Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it’s essentially true since before him there were Ukrainian servants of Germany during Germany’s occupation of Ukraine in 1918. Quite sad to think that Ukraine was not only occupied by Germany which lost WW1, but then Poland which only became independent in November 1918 domineered over Ukraine, for the Bolsheviks to then take over Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.

    The big “problem” is that Russian nationalist/”imperial” history takes are mostly true, although some Ukrainian/Ruthenian regional particularism is well rooted. We’re just scratching the surface of this history and it can be discussed endlessly. But that’s perhaps more than enough about history.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed. To a degree, Serbia and Ukraine are inverse tragedies since Western nations can’t suffer Serbia’s ties to Russia while Russians can’t suffer Ukraine’s ties to the West.

    With refugees and returnees, it obviously goes without stating it that the longer the current Ukraine War lasts, the worse the reconstruction and return of emigrants will be. Ukraine obviously isn’t exactly the same as Iraq, Libya, Syria or Serbia/Yugoslavia (Ukraine War seems to have less “ethnic cleansing” in particular, so far at least). Still, nothing suggests Ukraine will have some sort of good recovery as almost 10 million fled in total is terrible, especially a few million Russians to Russia, especially about return of displaced persons. Even economic recovery will have the scandal over seized Russian assets overshadowing it. Not to mention downturns in world economy. Overall, it’s a really sad picture for Ukraine devotees.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Thanks: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @sudden death
    @ShortOnTime


    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight.
     
    Even if formally it was voluntary action, in fact it was matter of strategic necessity, even with the price of near term dynastic clashes. Pagan Lithuania at the time unfortunately was bleeding white from that neverending hundred years war of Northern Crusades (not only Teutonic, but whole Christian European warring nobility was pouring into it) and it was ethnic Baltic core suffering the most at the western frontier, which had many significant setbacks in the second half of 14th century, e.g. loss of Kaunas castle, while in the east it didn't have enough strenght left to subjugate and conquer several times besieged Kremlin fortress.

    When dynastic war ended relatively quickly in 1392 and ethnic Lithuanian Vytautas got the Lithuanian native ruler throne, even if formally being subjected to the higher status ruler king Jogaila, joint (Polish+Lithuanian+Slavic) forces several decades later managed to crush Teutonic army in Grunwald battle of 1410, which terminated the mortal threat from Western direction.

    So it was de facto triumphant outcome politically, because it got centuries lasting peace on Western frontier, also Vytautas was like Lukashenko (formally having Belarus union with RF since 1999) on steroids wrt Poland/Jogaila and even Lithuanian state remained politically de facto very separate entity (e.g. refused to join another Polish war against teutonic Prussia in 1454) for several centuries after until it again was strategically forced to go into closer union with Poland in 1569 Lublin, because of Muscovite pressure in Livonian war.

    Replies: @ShortOnTime

    , @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)
     
    It was a coalition of princes led by prince of Suzdal.

    Fighting these proto-Russians were princes of Kiev, Galicia and Volhynia.

    The Suzdalian prince Andrei won, sacked Kiev, brutalized its inhabitants, and placed a puppet on the throne. The puppet and the Suzdalians were disliked by the people of Kiev, who overthrew him.

    Andrei attempted to restore his rule over Kiev but was defeated by a coalition of mostly proto-Ukrainians (Kievans, Volhynians, Galicians).

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical
     
    It would be, if anyone made this the basis of anything.

    You like to cherry-pick facts and to make strawmen.

    History moved on. The Ukrainian lands became part of the Rzeczpospolita, a loyal and integral part. The Rus princes of this land continued to fight the Suzdalians (Muscovites) in the 15th and 16th and early 17th centuries. The Volhynian Chronicle described these as wars of Rus versus Muscovites. This Chronicle also classified Muscovites alongside Moldovans as people who are Orthodox but not Rus. In the Battle of Orsha, the combined forces of Poland and Lithuania were led by a Rus prince from Volhynia, Konstanty Ostrogski as they crushed the Muscovite army.

    The war between Rzeczposolita and Muscovy of 1605-1617 (where Moscow was seized) was initiated not by Poles but was a project by Rus princes, the Orthodox Rus Michał Wiśniowiecki and the Sapieha brothers, Rus converts to Catholicism (funny how the Russian and Ukrainian nationalist fairtytales speak of Polish "occupation of Rus lands, when the richest magnates in Poland were not Poles but Rus princes and when these Rus princes, not Poles, directed Eastern policies and war).

    During this war, in 1618 Zaporizhians under Sahaidachny devastated the lands around Moscow.

    Sahaidachny would later fight alongside the Poles and stop the Turks at the massive Battle of Khotyn.

    It’s perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom
     
    Ukraine was separate from Suzdalia from around 1150 (when Rus fragmented) until 1650 and was then autonomous with its own laws and government until 1760. After that the western 10% was part of Austria while the other 90% was part of Russia, until 1917 when autonomy and brief independence were followed by a separate SSR and full independence in 1991.

    So the period of full integration lasted only 160 years, never included 10% of the country, and ended over 100 years ago.

    Burgundy - lol.

    The Dutch and the Deutsch might be more analogous. Or perhaps the Swedes and the Danes (though the Swedish and Danish languages are closer to each other than Ukrainian is to Russian).

    Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more “Asian Muscovite savages” than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).
     
    It was not only about time spent under Mongol overlordship. Russia spent twice as long as Ukraine under the rule of the Mongols, but Ukraine was was further, more peripheral, and less influenced by the Mongols during the occupation. The Russian elites intermarried with the Mongols - the ones in Ukraine did not. Russian historian Vernadsky notes that 15%of Russian noble families had Tatar/Mongol origins. Theseincliude Veliaminov-Zernov, Godunov, Arseniev, Bakhmetev, Bulgakov (descendants of Bulgak) and Chaadaev (descendants of Genghis Khan's son Chagatai Khan).

    Moreover, the process by which the Moscow princes came to power was one of selection for obedience to the Mongol overlords. The rebellious ones (such as the Tver princes) were crushed, the loyal ones closest to the Mongols granted more power. And so this is the ethnogenesis of the Russian people and culture - the Rus of Suzdalia under centuries of Mongol rule.

    And the ethnogenesis of the Ukrainian people were the Rus of Kiev, Volhynia and Galicia as part of Poland and/or Lithuania for centuries.

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible.
     
    According to supporters of Muscovy/Russia, a state that massacred the Novgorodians out of existence, spread serfdom under German masters, and ultimately became the base for Bolshevism that murdered millions.

    Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians
     
    Is the reverse better?

    You as usual play games with time. In the 18th century, as a backlash to the treason of Khmelnytsky and the loss of much of the Orthodox population, the rump PLC was repressive towards the Orthodox.

    But Orthodoxy flourished during the 17th century PLC. Kiev became an intellectual center of the Orthodox world.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_University_of_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy#Foundation_of_the_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren’t Rus successor states)
     
    Poland-Lithuania were the successors of Rus states in what is now Ukraine and Belarus, Russia of Suzdal.

    The last ruler of Kiev before the Mongols was the King of Galicia (who accepted a crown from the Pope) and his descendant married into the Polish royal family. When the family died out the throne passed to Poland. The local Rus princes of Ukraine were magnates of the PLC. One of them even got the Polish throne.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion
     
    Don't confuse Muscovite anti-Westernism with Rus. The Great Schism wasn't popular in Kiev, Daniel of Galicia took a crown from the Pope, the attempted Union of Florence (to unite Catholic and Orthodox in 1431) was popular in Kiev, and the Union of Brest was the work of local bishops.

    The original Rus tradition maintained by people in Ukraine was more open to the West than the later Suzdalian and Muscovite stance.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia
     
    Yes, both had claims over Galicia and fought over it. But in central Ukraine the Poles and Ukrainians were friendly, because Poland didn't claim those lands.

    Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it’s essentially true
     
    He got a better deal from Poland than anyone got from either Reds or Whites.

    Do you think that any weaker ally is a "lackey?" Were all the Western Euro leaders "lackeys" of the USA after World War II?

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre.
     
    I wouldn't call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.

    Poor Nicholas II, a decent man, allowed his country to go to war for the sake of this regicide. As a result he himself was also murdered, and Russia which went to war for the sake of the evil regicidal Serb regime ended up losing 10s of millions of people in the following decades, as a consequence of that fateful and terrible decision to support Serbia. The Austrian, Hapsburgs, Galicians got off much more lightly in the 20th century than did the Serbs and Russians (and Central/Eastern Ukrainians).

    So Serbia's and Russia's actions were far worse than Austria's.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed.
     
    Being Russia's neighbor is a nasty place to be.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @ShortOnTime


    Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.
     
    AP compares the Franz Ferdinand assassination to 9/11, but WWI would be comparable to a hypothetical subsequent Afghan War that results in *millions* of US soldiers getting killed in Afghanistan, such as if a hypothetical ultra-technologically-advanced China decides to militarily intervene in Afghanistan in this scenario in order to help the Taliban and is willing to fight the US to the very last man. The crucial question would then be whether *millions* (as opposed to "mere" *thousands*) of US deaths to avenge 9/11 would actually be worth it. And of course 9/11 was much worse than the Sarajevo murders, since the former involved 3,000 civilians deaths while the latter only involved two deaths, albeit two deaths of a very high status (so, maybe comparable to 10 or 20 normal civilian deaths, which is still over 100 times less bad than 9/11 was).
  148. @Greasy William
    @Mikel


    No, I don’t think the level of indifference is that high. If one side went fully genocidal people would care.
     
    I think you overestimate humanity. But if your right, that's a good thing, I guess.

    Not that I’ve read the whole thing but it doesn’t seem to contain anything of what you talked about.
     
    Some of the prophecies I understand and some of them I really don't. I admit that I don't get the Ecclesiates one. I also don't get the the one about why Gog and Magog has to happen in either 2027 or 2030.

    I base my predictions on a few things:
    1. Even if the prophecies are bullshit, Magog is 100%, without a doubt, Russia. The Magogites are uncircumcised Indo Europeans from the remotest part of the north, and Moscow metro and Jerusalem metro latitudinally overlap. Magog is clearly Russia and anyone who says otherwise is gay.
    2. The Vilna Gaon said that the first signal that Gog/Magog was coming would be the Russian invasion of Crimea (although he admittedly also said some other stuff about Turkey that doesn't seem to apply, at least not yet)
    3. That Al Asqua Flood was as successful as it was could only have happened via Divine intervention. This is indisputable. There is no way that even an organization as incompetent as the IDF could have fucked up that catastrophically purely by chance.
    4. The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left. I myself have already lost two white American friends who have gone completely out of their minds with antisemitic rage since the massacre on the 7th. This level of antisemitism means that something big is coming, and coming soon.
    5. The Zohar says that the war of Gog and Magog begins via a massive Ishmaelite attack on the Jewish people in the Land of Israel at the end of Sukkot.
    6. Gog and Magog is supposed to happen before the year 5800 on the Jewish calendar
    7. There were 15 judges of biblical Israel before a proper kingdom was formed. The 4th judge was a woman. A biblical judge was extremely similar to what we today call a prime minister. The fourth PM of the modern state of Israel was a woman. Bibi is the 15th PM of the state of Israel.
    8. Russia is clearly gearing up for a confrontation with Israel. Judaism has always held that Russia is the Third Rome (and Russia has always regarded itself as such). The United States is in terminal decline but it isn't dead yet; a Russian confrontation with Israel means a Russian confrontation with the United States. And a Russian confrontation with the United States means a nuclear exchange.

    To me that's a pretty convincing case. And that's without even adding the stuff that I don't get but sounds legit when I listen to others explain it.

    Replies: @Mikel, @ShortOnTime

    I don’t think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.

    Btw, I can’t believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu’s own personal memoirs a few years ago lol. Especially since they’re incomplete now anyway.

    The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left.

    I find it amusing lol. You’re absolutely right that those most opposed to Jews/Israel are actually Leftists and Jihad minded Muslims.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such “education” doesn’t work on those groups. Leftists just throw the Holocaust and Jewish victimhood right back at Jews in their left-wing ideological paradigms (“Jews and Israel are the real Nazis”). Muslims never really cared about the Holocaust anyway.

    But the whole “anti-Semitism” term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples. That includes all Arabs with even Ethiopians and Somalis. So by this logic Jews are anti-Semitic insofar as they’re anti-Arab and also anti-Ethiopian (the lost tribes of Israel issue in Africa needs more research) since Jews are anti-goyim in general. It’s also questionable to what extent Jews are actually “Semitic” at all since there’s Khazarian and European admixture (I’m not sure about how true Palestinian claims of Jewish settlers just being Poles and Hungarians of the Jewish faith is true either).

    “Free Free Palestine, Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea” could be added to “Holocaust no excuse for Palestine” after all, since the latter is connected to the former.

    But for anyone that’s not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro, but not beyond one night, since even the way Ben Shapiro talks is obnoxious enough and that sort of thing runs in the family.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @ShortOnTime


    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro
     
    So you admit that you hate Jews.

    I have tried so hard to see what some people see in her. I've even tried turning my head sideways. I admit that she looks like she may have been somewhat cute when she was like 18 or 19, but I really do find her homely now.

    And I've got weird tastes, too. I think that young Julie Kavner (voice of Marge Simpson) was cute. I like Jenny Slate and Ilana Glazer, who I suspect most men would find gross. I was a big fan of pre nose job Jennifer Grey. I even think that a young Hannah Arendt is kinda hot. But I just can't see anything appealing about Shapiro.

    And having sat through a couple of her vids, I can also confirm that she is really fucking annoying.

    since Jews are anti-goyim in general
     
    It's really not true. I'd admit it if it was. There are a lot of bad things you can say about Jews but Jews aren't goy haters. A lot of us hate Ishmaelites but that's as far as it goes.

    But the whole “anti-Semitism” term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples
     
    It was a term born during the era of scientific racism that was supposed to sound more palatable than "Jew Hater". Although the term made no sense for the reason you said above, it stuck around and it isn't going anywhere.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such “education” doesn’t work on those groups
     
    I do think Holocaust is the greatest crime in human history and I believe that Holocaust education is important, but the Boomer fixation on it has always felt irrelevant to me as a Millenial. I was raised Christian and when we had our big Holocaust learning in 7th grade I just remember thinking, "dude, I don't care". I agreed that it was awful but I didn't get why I needed to hear so much about it and I certainly didn't see what relevance it had to the Middle East. Even the Jewish kids in my class didn't seem to particularly care, at least not until we saw the camp footage (which bothered me too), and even that they got over pretty quick (so did I).

    I don’t think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.
     
    Bibi is an idiot and I can't believe that people can't tell that Russia is redirecting it's attention to Israel. Israel had some utility for Putin when he was trying to maintain detente with America. That's over now and Putin sees Israel as the greatest weak point of the US imperium and Putin intends to go after it with all means available to him.

    Putin didn't publicly meet with Hamas in Moscow only days after the slaughter because he has poor judgement. He wants to signal that he is the real leader of the anti Israel bloc and that he is the only hope Ishmael (and white leftists, I guess) have of annihilating Israel. China taking Israel off all of its maps, sending ships to the Mediterranean and starting an antisemitic campaign on Chinese social media also isn't just a coincidence. The Russia/Iran/China bloc is clearly prepping for a showdown with the United States. I truly don't understand how anyone can deny it.

    But for anyone that’s not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.
     
    Considering it's about to cause WWIII, I think it's relevant to everyone.

    Btw, I can’t believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu’s own personal memoirs a few years ago lol.
     
    Why would you want to read the memoirs of a guy who is notorious for lying about everything? Just make up your own and pretend that Bibi wrote them; they'd likely be more entertaining and more accurate

    Replies: @ShortOnTime

    , @German_reader
    @ShortOnTime


    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such “education” doesn’t work on those groups.
     
    But what is the logic why it should "work"? Should the Holocaust give Israel a free get out of jail card for its creeping annexation of territory inhabited by other people and the associated occupation regime? Because criticism of that can't be anything but irrational hatred? These arguments all fall apart on closer inspection.

    But the whole “anti-Semitism” term is ridiculous
     
    That argument is pretty tired, antisemitism has a clear meaning as anti-Jewish ideology (on an ethnic/racial basis), it has never signified anything else since the term came into existence in the late 19th century.

    But for anyone that’s not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.
     
    I'd prefer not to get involved in this conflict myself (since both sides are highly unappealing from my pov), but unfortunately it's not really possible not to have an opinion in it, given Western ties to Israel and negative repercussions of the conflict for the rest of the world.

    Regarding your points about Serbia, I don't think one should take Fehlinger seriously, the man is a meme character.


    She stands out for having pro-Serb sympathies, which fell out of fashion in the West long
     
    Yes, that was common until the 1990s. tbh I don't think it was any more justified than the subsequent one-sided demonization of Serbs.

    Replies: @ShortOnTime

  149. @German_reader
    Greasy William's comment inspired me to do some googling and I found this gem:
    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/current-events-in-ukraine-the-vilna-gaon-on-moshiach/

    Contains some funny stuff about Ukraine too:

    Historically the Ukrainian and Russian people have not treated Jews well. Stalin killed more people than Hitler; they were both evil. Vladamir Putin, the current leader of Russia, seems to approve of Stalin. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are guilty of murdering many Jews. Having a JINO (Jew In Name Only) president, does not whitewash the horrible crimes of the Ukrainian people against the Jews. Forgetting the crimes perpetrated against our people is a disgrace to the memory of our holy martyrs who died in G-d’s name על קידוש השם.

    (1648-1657), Khmelnytsky Pogroms Cossacks, Crimean Tatars – murdered 30,000 Jews and completely destroyed 300 Jewish communities. From 1888 until today there is a “hero’s” statue dedicated to the honor or Bohdan Khmelnytsky (the murderer of Jews. Since 2001 it is registered as a monument of national importance. It is located in Kyviv and is the symbol of the city (I pray that a Russian rocket will blow it up soon). It’s a symbol of shame.

     

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @ShortOnTime

    That has to be the most powerful links I’ve ever scrolled through.

    But to continue from the previous thread, I think Silviosilver clarified he was actually not a Serb but a Yugoslav. The more one researches Serbia/Yugoslavia the more one realizes those are 2 incompatible nationalities.

    Lots of interesting things can be said about Serbia. When one looks at all the types out there on Twitter/X focused on Serbia/Balkans, I wouldn’t blame Serbs for being “nutters”. Like imagine being exposed to types like that Gunther Fehlinger guy who became famous after calling to dismantle “genocide BRICS” and dismember Brazil and India, he even posted maps of alternative separatist statelets on “ex-Brazil” and “ex-India”. Before becoming more famous for that I think he just constantly called on Serbia to be sanctioned, bombed, “Genocide Serbia” every single Tweet, etc. Crazy calls for constant NATO expansion and Atlanticist zealotry. He might be some sort of purposeful troll since he’s from Austria but could be part of some prominent NATO/Euro-Atlantic Committee. IIRC, some time ago some Serbs doxxed Gunther’s home address and the Austrian police responded in a thread to his complaint that they didn’t take him seriously and he should just calm down. There is that saying that the Balkans begins in Austria.

    Otherwise Serbia’s ties to Russia are obviously strongly rooted in Orthodox Christianity and historical-political connections over at least the last 2-3 centuries. Regarding current Serbia, I feel it will either end like Carthage in the 3rd Punic War (Carthaginian complaints about Numidian encroachment ignored; Serbia and Kosovo Albanians with surprisingly many Cato equivalents out there calling for Serbia to be destroyed) or really just sack of Carthage in 146 BC (Baghdad 2003 is a less severe but more recent version), or Serbia will somehow make a major turnaround like September 15th, 1918 when Serbia broke through the Macedonian front and had its moment sort of close to Balkan hegemony (thrown away with Yugoslavia of course). I was reminded of the latter as I brushed up on my WW1 history of Eastern Europe for the discussion with AP by reading a WW1 book. Serbia’s breakthrough with the Entente in Macedonia is underrated since it was almost like reverse Gavrilo Princip assassination that triggered a WW1 spiral as the Macedonian breakthrough led to a WW1 winding down spiral instead.

    I tried reading Rebecca West’s Black Lamb and Grey Falcon a few years ago too but it was ridiculously long. Got stuck somewhere around the Adriatic Coast. Although it’s a work about history, it’s also some prominent English woman’s travel monologue and she has firmly pro-Jewish and anti-German opinions in the inter-war Europe context. She stands out for having pro-Serb sympathies, which fell out of fashion in the West long ago, of course.

    Regarding Serbia and Kosovo after some browsing, in the current climate it feels like this isn’t even newsworthy anymore:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjska_attack

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @ShortOnTime


    Regarding Serbia and Kosovo after some browsing, in the current climate it feels like this isn’t even newsworthy anymore:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjska_attack
     
    NATO client is occupying Serbia land with Serbian residents and pursuing ethnic cleansing policy. Has Jake Sullivan said anything about how quiet the Balkans are under the brilliant diplomacy of the Biden Administration?
  150. Sher Singh says:

    [MORE]

    ਅਕਾਲ

  151. @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    The war is not over yet. I suggest that you reserve your Putlerite ass licking comments for after the war. I don't think, however, that there will be much to cheer about at that time.

    Replies: @Derer

    I suggest that you reserve your Kiev Zio ass licking comments for after the war.

  152. @A123
    @John Johnson


    The DNC doesn’t need to cheat.

    They will just pull Biden aside and tell him that he will be primaried if he does not retire.
    ...
    The DNC will run a moderate White guy against him if needed.
     
    LOL. -- Gov. Newsome's simping trip to China did not get him any traction. And, he is an extremist, not a moderate.

    If Biden exits, Not-The-VP Harris is in a near unstoppable position to become the DNC candidate. She polls worse than her boss for the general election. The only way to replace her with out blowing up the party is with another polarizing minority female figure. Perhaps Michelle Obama? Or, AOC?

    They aren’t going to wheel Biden into the debates and hope it all works out.

     

    They have no better option. They cannot suddenly declare him medically unfit now. It would open the door to asking, "When did the Veggie-in-Chief become incapacitated"? That is a discussion the DNC cannot afford to have.


    Every bogus charge against Trump makes him stronger as the “underdog” candidate.
     
    It isn’t an underdog race. The polls show that he would win against Biden.
     
    Again, it is about PERCEPTION.

    Arrogant and abusive persecution of non-crimes hands Trump the "underdog" mantle and associated good will. There is no political contradiction with simultaneously being both the "poll leader" and the "perceived underdog". This will carry on regardless of who the DNC nominates.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Derer

    Harris and Michelle Obama are unelectable, the affirmative action presidency was fulfilled by Hussein Obama and that will apply for couple of generations.

    • Agree: Beckow
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Derer

    True, but they don't want to accept it. They can't, it is their "identity". And too many people will not tell them.

    When ideology and reality collide bad things often happen.

    Replies: @A123

  153. @ShortOnTime
    @Greasy William

    I don't think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.

    Btw, I can't believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu's own personal memoirs a few years ago lol. Especially since they're incomplete now anyway.


    The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left.

     

    I find it amusing lol. You're absolutely right that those most opposed to Jews/Israel are actually Leftists and Jihad minded Muslims.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such "education" doesn't work on those groups. Leftists just throw the Holocaust and Jewish victimhood right back at Jews in their left-wing ideological paradigms ("Jews and Israel are the real Nazis"). Muslims never really cared about the Holocaust anyway.

    But the whole "anti-Semitism" term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples. That includes all Arabs with even Ethiopians and Somalis. So by this logic Jews are anti-Semitic insofar as they're anti-Arab and also anti-Ethiopian (the lost tribes of Israel issue in Africa needs more research) since Jews are anti-goyim in general. It's also questionable to what extent Jews are actually "Semitic" at all since there's Khazarian and European admixture (I'm not sure about how true Palestinian claims of Jewish settlers just being Poles and Hungarians of the Jewish faith is true either).

    "Free Free Palestine, Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea" could be added to "Holocaust no excuse for Palestine" after all, since the latter is connected to the former.

    But for anyone that's not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro, but not beyond one night, since even the way Ben Shapiro talks is obnoxious enough and that sort of thing runs in the family.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @German_reader

    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro

    So you admit that you hate Jews.

    I have tried so hard to see what some people see in her. I’ve even tried turning my head sideways. I admit that she looks like she may have been somewhat cute when she was like 18 or 19, but I really do find her homely now.

    And I’ve got weird tastes, too. I think that young Julie Kavner (voice of Marge Simpson) was cute. I like Jenny Slate and Ilana Glazer, who I suspect most men would find gross. I was a big fan of pre nose job Jennifer Grey. I even think that a young Hannah Arendt is kinda hot. But I just can’t see anything appealing about Shapiro.

    And having sat through a couple of her vids, I can also confirm that she is really fucking annoying.

    since Jews are anti-goyim in general

    It’s really not true. I’d admit it if it was. There are a lot of bad things you can say about Jews but Jews aren’t goy haters. A lot of us hate Ishmaelites but that’s as far as it goes.

    But the whole “anti-Semitism” term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples

    It was a term born during the era of scientific racism that was supposed to sound more palatable than “Jew Hater”. Although the term made no sense for the reason you said above, it stuck around and it isn’t going anywhere.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such “education” doesn’t work on those groups

    I do think Holocaust is the greatest crime in human history and I believe that Holocaust education is important, but the Boomer fixation on it has always felt irrelevant to me as a Millenial. I was raised Christian and when we had our big Holocaust learning in 7th grade I just remember thinking, “dude, I don’t care”. I agreed that it was awful but I didn’t get why I needed to hear so much about it and I certainly didn’t see what relevance it had to the Middle East. Even the Jewish kids in my class didn’t seem to particularly care, at least not until we saw the camp footage (which bothered me too), and even that they got over pretty quick (so did I).

    I don’t think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.

    Bibi is an idiot and I can’t believe that people can’t tell that Russia is redirecting it’s attention to Israel. Israel had some utility for Putin when he was trying to maintain detente with America. That’s over now and Putin sees Israel as the greatest weak point of the US imperium and Putin intends to go after it with all means available to him.

    Putin didn’t publicly meet with Hamas in Moscow only days after the slaughter because he has poor judgement. He wants to signal that he is the real leader of the anti Israel bloc and that he is the only hope Ishmael (and white leftists, I guess) have of annihilating Israel. China taking Israel off all of its maps, sending ships to the Mediterranean and starting an antisemitic campaign on Chinese social media also isn’t just a coincidence. The Russia/Iran/China bloc is clearly prepping for a showdown with the United States. I truly don’t understand how anyone can deny it.

    But for anyone that’s not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    Considering it’s about to cause WWIII, I think it’s relevant to everyone.

    Btw, I can’t believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu’s own personal memoirs a few years ago lol.

    Why would you want to read the memoirs of a guy who is notorious for lying about everything? Just make up your own and pretend that Bibi wrote them; they’d likely be more entertaining and more accurate

    • LOL: ShortOnTime
    • Replies: @ShortOnTime
    @Greasy William


    So you admit that you hate Jews.

    I have tried so hard to see what some people see in her. I’ve even tried turning my head sideways. I admit that she looks like she may have been somewhat cute when she was like 18 or 19, but I really do find her homely now.

     

    So anyone that says they might have sex with a Jewish woman "admits they hate Jews"?

    Doesn't it make more sense that anyone that truly hated Jews would steer clear of Jewish women since Jews define descent matrilineally? That is, any non-Jewish man that truly hated Jews wouldn't want to have sex with Jewish women since that would probably just create more Jews?

    But about Abigail Shapiro, there was one image where she looked decent with long hair, but a pass is obviously easier and probably what I would choose in real life, since it's easier to make a blasé observation about it from a distance instead of when confronted with such a scenario.


    It’s really not true. I’d admit it if it was. There are a lot of bad things you can say about Jews but Jews aren’t goy haters. A lot of us hate Ishmaelites but that’s as far as it goes.
     
    Muslims practice Taqqiyah along with Jihad, of course. Since the Jewish Talmud goes on about how goyim are animals and subhuman cattle, it's reasonable to wonder if Jews have also internalized Taqqiyah in a different way when conversing with goyim.

    Of course, you may personally even love goys, but broadly most Jews consider themselves undoubtedly racially superior to goys and act accordingly.

    This "anti-Semitism" and "Islamophobia" crap won't be able to fly for too long, especially the longer the fighting over Gaza goes on and if there is an escalation in the Middle East more generally.


    I do think Holocaust is the greatest crime in human history and I believe that Holocaust education is important, but the Boomer fixation on it has always felt irrelevant to me as a Millenial. I was raised Christian and when we had our big Holocaust learning in 7th grade I just remember thinking, “dude, I don’t care”. I agreed that it was awful but I didn’t get why I needed to hear so much about it and I certainly didn’t see what relevance it had to the Middle East. Even the Jewish kids in my class didn’t seem to particularly care, at least not until we saw the camp footage (which bothered me too), and even that they got over pretty quick (so did I).

     

    Perhaps we can obviously agree that the excessive focus and obsession upon the Holocaust prevalent in America and the mainstream West is extremely unhealthy.

    Still about the issue itself, it may be worth stating that the Holocaust does seem to be broadly real with a considerable weight of some historical evidence and in simple terms "it actually happened". However, it's also still being massively exaggerated and abused above all by Jews to induce moral guilt in goyim and exploit it for all sorts of nefarious agendas. Regarding the event, the empirical evidence seems to be that only anywhere from 1-4 million Jews actually died from it. Norman Finkelstein, David Irving and also Mahmoud Abbas seem to be the truly leading authorities on it. Norman explains well how various Jews exploited the Holocaust for personal grifting (was it Elie Wiesel or Simon Wiesenthal that was a complete fakes again?), Irving that the figures couldn't possibly have been 6 million but that around a few million is realistic, and iirc Mahmoud Abbas wrote a whole PhD work on the Holocaust and how Jews abused it both to create Israel and expand their global power along with videos of Mahmoud Abbas giving lectures about the history of the Holocaust and Jewish power in the first half of the 20th century. So in this sense there's obviously no point in "denying" the Holocaust in any mainstream context.

    Still, Mahmoud Abbas is actually one of the few figures I can sympathize with from the current Israel-Palestine conflict since he's simply a sad old man who's helplessly witnessed the decline of his nation and is trying to impart what little lessons and future he can to the next generation. It's worth appreciating Mahmoud Abbas especially as he's recently survived an assassination attempt, presumably by Hamas.


    Bibi is an idiot and I can’t believe that people can’t tell that Russia is redirecting it’s attention to Israel. Israel had some utility for Putin when he was trying to maintain detente with America. That’s over now and Putin sees Israel as the greatest weak point of the US imperium and Putin intends to go after it with all means available to him.

    Putin didn’t publicly meet with Hamas in Moscow only days after the slaughter because he has poor judgement. He wants to signal that he is the real leader of the anti Israel bloc and that he is the only hope Ishmael (and white leftists, I guess) have of annihilating Israel. China taking Israel off all of its maps, sending ships to the Mediterranean and starting an antisemitic campaign on Chinese social media also isn’t just a coincidence. The Russia/Iran/China bloc is clearly prepping for a showdown with the United States. I truly don’t understand how anyone can deny it.

    Considering it’s about to cause WWIII, I think it’s relevant to everyone.
     

    This take is too powerful for my taste. I think your analysis of world geopolitics and international relations is too eschatological and millenarian. Although someone like commenter Dmitry errs too much to the other extreme of a secular-materialist worldview. FWIW, I'll give my take as brief as possibly that unlike yours is more grounded in "rationality" and more likely to be accurately predictive of the future in certain respects.

    Israel is a nuclear armed state with one of the best militaries in the world in both equipment and battlefield performance. Some even count Israel as a great power. Israel got off to a good start with its Gaza invasion since it's already mostly encircled North Gaza. Still, the tunnels mean that ground control on the surface can be misleading. Considering Israel has almost every possible military advantage imaginable over Hamas in Gaza, it's hard to see Israel somehow coming undone. Israel devastating Gaza and annihilating most of Hamas with around 2 million Palestinian refugees going into the Sinai and some from there to the rest of the world (depends on international aid and other variables) looks almost like a fait accompli at this point. Although the longer the fighting in Gaza lasts, the greater the theoretical possibility of Israel coming undone.

    The only possible ways of Israel coming undone would most probably either be from some sort of internal political intrigue over your beloved Benjamin (the only 2 nuclear states that really failed since WW2 are Apartheid South Africa and the USSR because of complex internal changes) or Muslim countries actually do intervene and a massive Middle East war does come about from escalation, but the latter seems improbable for many reasons. So far, only Hezbollah has actually done anything substantial for Palestinians and Hamas in Gaza by making real but limited effort in skirmishing with Israel on the Lebanon border. Iran and its Axis of Resistance may strike instead at US military bases in Iraq and Syria to make a more serious effort to evict the USA from there (getting rid of or reducing the American "deterrence" against them acting against Israel would be a precondition to directly going against Israel). The amount of drone and rocket attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria has significantly accelerated many times over. The rest of the "Arab-Muslim world" looks almost completely useless on Palestine as the recent OIC summit illustrated where iirc besides empty statements the UAE refused to even stop selling oil to Israel. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also most unlikely to do anything meaningful against Israel.

    Honestly, the almost 1.6 billion biomass of Sunni Muslims is only good at targeting and chimping out at Christians. Then again, if it weren't significantly for Jews, Christians likely wouldn't be facing such a severe Muslim problem in the 21st century. Which is again why there's truly no love lost from Christians as against Jews and Muslims (leftist Islamophiles and Christian Zionist dimwits exempted). The "anti-Semitism" and "Islamophobia" garbage illustrates the preference of the Western elite for Jews and Muslims to be united together against Christians anyway, which they usually are and probably will be again once the conflagration over Gaza stops.

    As for Russia, it's hard to see a Russia that's preoccupied with Ukraine, and specifically capturing Avdeyevka in the present moment, going into any major adventurism in the Middle East anytime soon. It does look like the post-Prigozhin Wagner group has transferred some Pantsirs or other air defense systems to Hezbollah in Lebanon. So besides Russia repaying Iran and its Axis of Resistance with assorted weapons shipments for the favors Russia owes them over the latter's weapons shipments to Russia in the Ukraine War, it's hard to see Russia doing anything substantial beyond that over the current Gaza war.

    Btw, the upcoming meeting in San Francisco with Xi Jinping and the "Biden Administration" doesn't suggest that China's leadership intends to trigger WW3 over Palestine. Although the meeting will probably go badly since all of Antony Blinken's "diplomatic" encounters with China look like ugly spats so far, with the Chinese side doing its best to express themselves with some restraint and maintain civility as much as possible.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Greasy William

  154. @John Johnson
    @QCIC

    Finland can be the first country to leave NATO (I think). Late in Phase II.

    “Finland in NATO: Last in, first out.”
    “Easy come, easy go.”


    So while Russia is violently suppressing any remaining resistance you believe Finland would leave NATO? Is that right? Why?

    What would prevent Russia from invading Finland on the basis that they can't be allowed to ever join NATO again?

    Replies: @QCIC, @Derer

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion. That same politburo just “successfully” persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    • Replies: @WS
    @Derer

    Disagree: Finns want to be involved in new Imperial Europe project. It was clear to them if they refuse the invitation from politburo, they would not be part of coming millienial distribution of landmass on the East. As well Swedes, invigorating their ambitions from early MDCCC century......

    , @John Johnson
    @Derer

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion.

    So why didn't they pressure Finland into joining NATO during the last 20 years?

    That same politburo just “successfully” persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    Ukraine has not joined NATO.

    Ukraine would have to apply before joining NATO and they don't qualify for a variety of reasons, the current one being they are in a war. You can't apply with a contended border and that is why they haven't qualified since 2014.

    Ukraine would like to join NATO but we don't know if it will happen. The war could end with them making a deal with Russia that includes neutrality. Putin will tout that as a success and his Totalitarian TV news won't mention that Finland is in NATO and has more border with Russia.

    Putin could propose that Finland backs out of NATO as part of a deal. But he rarely talks about NATO which is one of many reasons why I don't think that was the cause of the war. If NATO was truly the cause then he would have sent an ultimatum before attacking.

  155. @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You know that admitting Nato was moving to Ukraine fatally weakens your arguments so you lie about it. It won’t change anything.

    Stop making stuff up.

    Go ahead and quote me or let everyone see that you can't respond without using your imagination.

    I never said NATO was moving to Ukraine. In fact I've cited the article where NATO said that Ukraine still doesn't qualify:
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-nato-membership-can-join-when-allies-agree-conditions-are-met-leaders-say/

    I don't know if Ukraine will join NATO. Of course they would like to join at this point. Who wouldn't want protection after being invaded by a larger power? However they could stay out as part of a deal with Russia. Or a country like Turkey could decide to vote against them.

    I am also on record stating that they don't need to join NATO for the sake of their own security. In 5 years this type of invasion will be even more difficult. The drone swarms will be ready which will make moving tanks and armored vehicles near impossible. China could in fact lose in an invasion if Taiwan prepares properly. The Taiwanese president however is a bit of a nitwit so that is up in the air.


    Russia is currently selling NATO countries oil at NATO defined prices
     
    They are selling it at market prices and also the LNG gas – the buyers are lining up and pay, mostly in EU. Some directly, others through intermediaries.

    G7 countries are imposing a price cap. Russia however of course sells at market rate to non-G7 countries and the cap is basically an honor system. But the point is that Russia will sell oil to its own political opponents. They're not going to cut oil to Finland for joining NATO. Finland doesn't need anything else from Russia. Their main trade partners are Western.

    Every Finnish businessmen knows it – why don’t you? Being in Nato does nothing

    NATO protects you from Russian invasion. Putin's henchmen are on video talking about how they should have taken the Baltics when they had the chance. They have TV debates where they speak of the Baltics as lost territories. Russians seem to think their borders should go to Germany and some even still want Eastern Germany. This mentality of Russians assuming their neighbors belong to them was described by the British over 100 years ago.

    Moldova has neutrality in their constitution and Belarus leaked the Russian invasion plan that showed them as next.

    Finland had peaceful relations with Russia since it lost war to them in 1945. Now they are a primary preventive target in any war and lose business

    LOL you really must be imagining another dictator. Putin rants about all kinds of countries and then sells them oil. Why hasn't he passed sanctions on Finland? Yea I'm sure he'll get right on that.

    The dwarf is just out to conquer. He would have taken Finland or Kazakhstan if he had known that Ukraine would kick his tanks out of Kiev. Putin is on record stating that it was a shame that the USSR collapsed. A fake Christian if there ever was one. He tried recreating the Russian empire and was pushed back to Donbas.

    Eliminating the Ukrainian identity is a Russian fantasy. They view Ukrainians as snobbish half-Westerners. The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood and don't have all the random conquered people of the Russian empire. Quite strange that White nationalists like Anglin support Putin when Russia is the multi-racial/multi-religious empire and Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.

    Replies: @Beckow

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,…) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won’t be in Nato – Russia won that part of the war.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources – remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works, Finland prospers. When the border is restricted, Finland does worse. Ask any Finnish businessman.

    Selling is not the point. It is about “selling for how much” – by joining Nato Finland switched to paying more, selling less to Russia and with higher costs. If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target – up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.

    Your fabulation about Russia “invading Finland next” or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance. Are Russians invading Bretagne next for the oysters? If we judge countries by the loose talk on shows or made-up spy leaks we will live in paranoia. Have you seen some of the nuts on the American shows? What does that have to with anything?

    The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood…Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.

    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood? no kidding…so why are they self-destructing like lemmings? Are Nordics into that too? It looks like that occasionally.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The “Nordic” ideology lost the biggest war in human history, WW2 – and Russia won it. You can’t go back and redo it. We are living with the consequences and only an idiot would try to reverse it. Good luck.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Beckow

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,…) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won’t be in Nato – Russia won that part of the war.

    Not much of a discussion when you ignore most of my questions.

    We don't know if Ukraine will join NATO. This war could go a lot of directions.

    Putin may be happy to get his Donbas consolation prize without neutrality for Ukraine.

    He rarely mentions NATO and in his recent speeches describes the war as protecting Donbas.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources – remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works

    What did I say was incorrect? Finland's trade status with Russia is public record:

    https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/fin

    Their largest export to Russia is half a billion in copper. Whoopdy doo. Copper can be sold elsewhere.

    As with most of Europe they treat Russia like a gas station.

    No one cares about Russian products.

    Europeans just want to do a quick stop at Frodo's Gas 'n Nuke.

    Your fabulation about Russia “invading Finland next” or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance.

    How would it be ignorance if no one knows the full plans of Putin?

    When Putin had his "training exercise" on the border it was military expert and masturbation specialist Scott Ritter that published a rant on Russian media on how Putin won't invade and it's all a CIA conspiracy. Didn't age well.

    But I'm "ignorant" (it means to lack knowledge) for suggesting Putin could have invaded Finland? Why exactly? The Belarus doofus leaked the plan to invade Moldova after Ukraine. Why not add Finland as well? Putin probably wishes he went after Finland and Kazakhstan instead.

    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood?

    Yes they have more Nordic blood. You can call it Scandinavian blood if you want. I already had someone on here flip out by the suggestion and I backed the assertion with a DNA study. I can dig up that study if you would like.

    Russians have more Asian DNA while Ukrainians and Latvians have more Viking DNA. This shouldn't be a surprise given the history of the area. The further East you go the more likely it is that the people were under Mongols and not the Swedes. I don't know why this is so difficult. If anything the White nationalists have strange delusions about Russians. Anglin seemed to think they were pure bred White Christians.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The “Nordic” ideology lost the biggest war in human history.

    Most Germans aren't Nordic and pointing out Viking influence and genetics does not make one a Nazi. The Vikings were real people with identifiable DNA. Yes it is a modern/leftist belief that European tribes never existed and all White people are just plain White. Well we can identify these groups with DNA even if leftists tell us they don't exist.

    Largest Viking DNA study
    https://www.archaeology.org/issues/406-2101/features/9266-viking-genetic-study

    , @sudden death
    @Beckow


    If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target – up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.
     
    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Beckow

  156. @Derer
    @A123

    Harris and Michelle Obama are unelectable, the affirmative action presidency was fulfilled by Hussein Obama and that will apply for couple of generations.

    Replies: @Beckow

    True, but they don’t want to accept it. They can’t, it is their “identity”. And too many people will not tell them.

    When ideology and reality collide bad things often happen.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow



    Harris and Michelle Obama are unelectable, the affirmative action presidency was fulfilled by Hussein Obama and that will apply for couple of generations.
     
    True, but they don’t want to accept it. They can’t, it is their “identity”. And too many people will not tell them.

    When ideology and reality collide bad things often happen.
     
    I concur.

    Selecting a PoC female as VP was an implicit commitment to running someone from that group as the DNC Presidential candidate. Breaking that 'promise' with a white male nominee would blow up the Democrat party base.

    The DNC can duck this for the 2024 election by keeping Not-The-President Biden in the top slot on the ticket. The Veggie-in-Chief is their least bad choice. He will lose to Trump, but still leaves down ballot races in play. Blowing up the party or running Not-The-VP Harris are worse options.

    PEACE 😇
  157. @meena
    @Jesuitic Ziowahhabiz

    It was the Jewish delegation from Russia that forced Herzl to abandon thoughts of any non-Palestinian locations . Chaim Weizmann also dismissed the idea of any place other than Palestine.

    Replies: @Greasy William

    “Meena” is a girl’s name. Are you a girl, and if so, are you hot?

  158. @Derer
    @John Johnson

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion. That same politburo just "successfully" persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    Replies: @WS, @John Johnson

    Disagree: Finns want to be involved in new Imperial Europe project. It was clear to them if they refuse the invitation from politburo, they would not be part of coming millienial distribution of landmass on the East. As well Swedes, invigorating their ambitions from early MDCCC century……

  159. German_reader says:
    @ShortOnTime
    @Greasy William

    I don't think you should be so scared of Russia. IIRC, Bibi said that he thought Putin was smart and sophisticated.

    Btw, I can't believe I ever thought about buying a book about Netanyahu's own personal memoirs a few years ago lol. Especially since they're incomplete now anyway.


    The level of antisemitism that has erupted in the Western world since Oct 7th is completely unprecedented. The hatred has truly reached genocidal proportions and it absolutely is not limited to the Arab and Muslim populations residing in the Western countries, in fact it seems to be the strongest among the white far left.

     

    I find it amusing lol. You're absolutely right that those most opposed to Jews/Israel are actually Leftists and Jihad minded Muslims.

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such "education" doesn't work on those groups. Leftists just throw the Holocaust and Jewish victimhood right back at Jews in their left-wing ideological paradigms ("Jews and Israel are the real Nazis"). Muslims never really cared about the Holocaust anyway.

    But the whole "anti-Semitism" term is ridiculous since Semitism/Semitic literally refers to the ethnic/racial community of Semites or Semitic peoples. That includes all Arabs with even Ethiopians and Somalis. So by this logic Jews are anti-Semitic insofar as they're anti-Arab and also anti-Ethiopian (the lost tribes of Israel issue in Africa needs more research) since Jews are anti-goyim in general. It's also questionable to what extent Jews are actually "Semitic" at all since there's Khazarian and European admixture (I'm not sure about how true Palestinian claims of Jewish settlers just being Poles and Hungarians of the Jewish faith is true either).

    "Free Free Palestine, Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea" could be added to "Holocaust no excuse for Palestine" after all, since the latter is connected to the former.

    But for anyone that's not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    Btw, I would do Abigail Shapiro, but not beyond one night, since even the way Ben Shapiro talks is obnoxious enough and that sort of thing runs in the family.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @German_reader

    The problem is that the Holocaust and other such “education” doesn’t work on those groups.

    But what is the logic why it should “work”? Should the Holocaust give Israel a free get out of jail card for its creeping annexation of territory inhabited by other people and the associated occupation regime? Because criticism of that can’t be anything but irrational hatred? These arguments all fall apart on closer inspection.

    But the whole “anti-Semitism” term is ridiculous

    That argument is pretty tired, antisemitism has a clear meaning as anti-Jewish ideology (on an ethnic/racial basis), it has never signified anything else since the term came into existence in the late 19th century.

    But for anyone that’s not Jewish or Muslim to dip their toes into Israel-Palestine is foolish, myself included.

    I’d prefer not to get involved in this conflict myself (since both sides are highly unappealing from my pov), but unfortunately it’s not really possible not to have an opinion in it, given Western ties to Israel and negative repercussions of the conflict for the rest of the world.

    Regarding your points about Serbia, I don’t think one should take Fehlinger seriously, the man is a meme character.

    She stands out for having pro-Serb sympathies, which fell out of fashion in the West long

    Yes, that was common until the 1990s. tbh I don’t think it was any more justified than the subsequent one-sided demonization of Serbs.

    • Replies: @ShortOnTime
    @German_reader


    But what is the logic why it should “work”? Should the Holocaust give Israel a free get out of jail card for its creeping annexation of territory inhabited by other people and the associated occupation regime? Because criticism of that can’t be anything but irrational hatred? These arguments all fall apart on closer inspection.

     

    Since Israel was founded in 1948, 3 years after WW2, it does serve as a major excuse for Israel's creation and existence. Although of course Jewish settlement into Palestine was ongoing since the late 19th century back when the Ottoman Empire owned the province. Still, it's true that Jews act as if there is no "statute of limitations" on the Holocaust, but don't you dare try voicing that. Then again, Iran has hosted some "Holocaust Denial" conferences over the years lol.

    Ron Unz's version of events about Adolf Eichmann's kidnapping and trial by Israel being about his potential testimony as a living witness of Jew-Nazi collaboration in the settlement of Israel despite the ongoing Jew-Nazi conflict since 1933 is a very interesting take instead of the mainstream version about completely innocent Jews bringing another evil Adolf to justice. Worth clarifying that I'm not a fan of either side of the Jew-Nazi conflict, just like with Israel-Palestine either.


    I’d prefer not to get involved in this conflict myself (since both sides are highly unappealing from my pov), but unfortunately it’s not really possible not to have an opinion in it, given Western ties to Israel and negative repercussions of the conflict for the rest of the world.

     

    I absolutely share the sentiment.

    Sadly it's hard to see a way to avoid Israel casually being able to toss Palestinian refugees from Gaza around the world, even to some destinations of choice.


    Regarding your points about Serbia, I don’t think one should take Fehlinger seriously, the man is a meme character.

     

    He is so over the top and ridiculous that it actually gets funny.

    Still, Fehlinger is just the tip of the iceberg for the anti-Serb crowd on Twitter. There's also that British MP (some similar American and EU equivalents too) Alisha Kearns that was involved in supporting Jihadists in the black ops in Syria and she's pathologically pro-Bosnia and pro-Albanian or anti-Serb, like much of the current British and Western elite. Going into all the rest, especially from the Balkan neighborhood is probably too much.


    Yes, that was common until the 1990s. tbh I don’t think it was any more justified than the subsequent one-sided demonization of Serbs.

     

    Since you're German it's no surprise you're not pro-Serb. Considering everything Germany has done to Serbs in the 20th century, it's to be expected that there's truly no love lost between Germans and Serbs. Although most of the AfD seems to think otherwise.

    I personally find all the Muslim Jihad and Taqqiyah directed against Serbs odious. Like this from Al Jazeera comparing the current Gaza war to Srebrenica lol. Other idiots repeat a similar line too hoping that what sort of worked against Serbs in the 1990's can work against Israel.

    https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1715372456171483304

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1720784846027468969

    Replies: @German_reader

  160. @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack


    Every single scholar or pundit that reviews the topic of the end-times within Revelation
     
    Well, there always is the preterist interpretation that looks at the book of Revelation as describing events in the first century that have already occurred. I've always been rather partial to that view myself.

    It's hardly so handy for selling blockbuster Evangelical action series though!

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. Hack

    You’re free to believe whatever you want, but I don’t see how anybody can believe that all of the things written about within Revelations have already taken place. Some undoubtedly have, but it doesn’t seem feasible that the Apocalypse has already taken place, with Christ sitting on his judgement seat ready to judge all of humanity and its eternal fate. Besides, Israel didn’t crystalize into a modern nation/state until 1948, so how could all of it have already taken place?


    Right hand or left hand?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mr. Hack

    Like I said to A123, I don't worry myself over Revelations or prophecy in general, since I regard it as well above my paygrade.

    I'm really more sympathetic to any of the interpretations of Revelations that are not the strict futurist or dispensationalist view. The historicist or symbolic interpretations also have significant merit as would a semi-preterist view. I wouldn't really go for a hardline preterist view since there are too many issues there. I just threw it out there since it is the exact opposite of dispensationalist thinking.

    Besides, the current dispensationalist view as popularized by stuff like the Left Behind series is a very very recent development in thought on the book of Revelations.

    On Israel, I would take the stance of many Orthodox Jews that the current state of Israel can't fulfill nuthin' since it is really a secular ethno-state and now a religious Jewish state in any regard.


    Right hand or left hand?
     
    You can tell the Jews were pastoral people since the sheep were favored (right hand) and the goats were out of favor (left hand). Having been around both sheep and goats, my own take has been that goats are the Tweaker Punk-Ass Meth-Heads of the livestock world. Truly the devil's own creature. If there is any piece of livestock which has a high probability of ending up standing on your car roof it will be a goat.

    It's always fun to really "get" those biblical references first hand!
  161. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @Greasy William

    You're obviously kidding. I checked Ecclesiastes because it looked like an easy one to verify lol.

    Anyway, this thing with some American lefties demonstrating against Israel must be primarily an action-reaction phenomenon. You can't have these levels of high volume, non-stop pro-Israel propaganda going on without some people going bananas in the opposite direction. It's a natural human reaction. In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason. Netanyahu is an innocent dove compared to most Republicans. And I don't know what's left to say for these candidates on the rest of the issues, especially when they don't get to confront the big showman.

    Replies: @German_reader

    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.

    They want war with Iran. Which would be an absolute disaster, a lot worse than Iraq, and might be the final nail in the coffin of America’s ever so benevolent hegemony. Also a good chance it will turn out very badly for Jews in the end since their ethnocentric lobbying efforts would be correctly identified as having played a major role in bringing about such a catastrophe.

    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader



    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran.
     
    Who is "They"? Who stated during the debate that they want to attack Iran? Also, remember the inevitable GOP candidate was not there. If someone, with at best marginal support, said something stupid it represents them, not the MAGA/GOP.

    MAGA policy during Trump's 1st term was containing Iran. He refused to be baited by sociopath Khamenei's repeated provocations. There's every reason to believe that Trump's 2nd term will resume this policy.

    Religious zealots in the Iranian theocracy want might find some way to start a war. That side is the far more pressing danger. Losing primary candidates and former officials (Pompeo, Bolton, etc.) have no war powers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @German_reader

    , @Mikel
    @German_reader


    They want war with Iran.
     
    They're desperate for it, especially the ones that Trump hired for his administration. If they had the same level of enthusiasm for immigration, wokeness, censorship and crime the Republican party would be in a great position. And anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily too, they're all winning positions for most ordinary Americans. Instead, they try to outdo each other on who would hit Iran the hardest and give Israel the most unconditional support. Vivek is perhaps the most solid one on the issues but he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego. Anyway, if the MSM and Silicon Valley make Biden beat Trump again it will be a totally self-inflicted defeat and the US is changing so fast that I don't know how much 2028 will matter.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader, @Beckow

  162. @ShortOnTime
    @AP

    I'll reply from the previous thread on key points and cutting out blockquotes, partly to save space. Let's try keep it chronological.

    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical. It's perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom just before its fall) or Catalan separatism against Spain. Perhaps even Canada vs USA since such hypothetical analogies (especially geopolitical alignment and foreign great power military alliances) about USA invading Canada devolving into trench war with Canadians then harping on about "ancient Canadian nationhood" sounding completely ridiculous and citing things like the War of 1812 (Canadian genesis only began in 19th century and Canadian distinction in WW1 participation along with French Quebec are only remarkable things about Canada historically, honestly). The 4chan analogy of a botched American invasion of Mexico to the current Ukraine War is apples and oranges comparison though, since Russia is not USA and Ukraine isn't Mexico. Analogies can only be taken so far.

    Otherwise, the Rus fragmentation (connected decline of Piast Poland too) explains why Eastern Europe was easy prey for Mongols. Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more "Asian Muscovite savages" than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kiev_(1240)

    As for Pagan Lithuania, it's actually very impressive that it punched above its own weight in its era (14th century especially). Repelling multiple invasions and raids from the Teutonic Knights, also exploiting Mongol and Tatar decline to take over Rus lands. Pagan Lithuania was the last Pagan kingdom in Europe until the 15th century (Paganism presumably persisted till 16th century).

    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight. Guaranteed lots of strife. Likely would've been better if Lithuania remained Pagan, but friction with Orthodox and especially Catholics was too much. Even among Lithuanians, there was a significant minority of Orthodox nobles and there were some civil wars contesting the union and Jogaila's acquiescence to it (some of it was dynastic too admittedly, ie one prince wanted to rule instead of the incumbent without necessarily changing the union). Especially since Poland became the senior partner in the long term. Just one of many below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_Civil_War_(1389%E2%80%931392)

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible. Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians and Casimir III inviting Jews to jointly take part in exploiting subject populations, especially economically. Jesuit invitation too. The only good thing about the PLC was its confrontations with the Ottomans but that's because the Ottomans chose to try expanding north from Bessarabia/Moldova and Ottoman conquest of Vienna would've been unacceptable for PLC (southern Ottoman border expanded).

    The anti-Jewish "pogroms" or really, riots, though pose a major historical riddle. If everyone in Ukraine was always Ukrainian with Russians never being a significant part of Ukraine, then that means Ukraine has an ugly track record of "anti-Semitism" as I saw Norman Finklestein discuss in a video. If the "pogroms" in Ukraine are Russia's fault, the problem with that is that it means Ukraine is basically legitimately Russian, no matter how "anti-Semitic" one thinks Russians are. Perhaps on the Unz Review it's easier to say that the "pogroms" have always been exaggerated, especially the ones in the Russian Empire in the few decades before WW1. Really they were just a bunch of street clashes between Jews vs Russians/Ukrainians since Jews had a disproportionate part in fomenting revolutionary unrest against the Tsardom and non-Jews in the Russian Empire had many legitimate grievances against Jews. The total of Jewish "victims" was only anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand overall. Pogroms weren't directed by the Russian state as historical evidence in hindsight makes clear. The ones under Bogdan Khmelnitsky since 1648 were significantly larger in scope though (possibly a few 10s of 1000s) since it was a rebellion that morphed into an all out war and the pent up grievances against Jewish moneychangers and theft of Orthodox Church land was much larger and more repressed (Khmelnitsky rebelled over a vicious personal dispute with a Polish noble and the Polish Kings ineffective mediation). There was some chaos in WW1 and the Russian Civil War too. Anyway, the Jewish aspect of this is perhaps the most interesting of all.

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren't Rus successor states), Polish nobles were tolerated until 19th century Polish rebellions. The Romanovs had notable success in undoing Uniatism in Galicia, Western Ukraine and Belarus. I even took the time to read some of Adam Zamoyski's works (who's devotedly pro-PLC), and even he acknowledged in his book Poland: A History, that most of the rebellions against Russia in Lithuania were actually just Polish nobles (until 1860's iirc, sort of), with Lithuanian peasants having no interest in taking part. Same for Belarus and Ukraine parts with Polish nobles.

    In the 19th century it's true proto-Ukrainians took some more hold. Really any record of Ukrainians as anything more than regionally distinct "Ruthenians"/''Little Rus'' from Russians before 18th century is weak. Although even Putin in his text on the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians acknowledges things like the Elms Ukaz of 1876.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion and one may dare say, apostasy, can be very powerful.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia with Poland strong-arming Ukrainians to cede Galicia which Ukrainian Rada acceded to since they thought that concession and prospective Polish help against Bolsheviks was worth it. Pretty obvious Poland picked a fight with Bolsheviks and even Whites when it intervened in Ukraine then. Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it's essentially true since before him there were Ukrainian servants of Germany during Germany's occupation of Ukraine in 1918. Quite sad to think that Ukraine was not only occupied by Germany which lost WW1, but then Poland which only became independent in November 1918 domineered over Ukraine, for the Bolsheviks to then take over Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria's attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.

    The big "problem" is that Russian nationalist/"imperial" history takes are mostly true, although some Ukrainian/Ruthenian regional particularism is well rooted. We're just scratching the surface of this history and it can be discussed endlessly. But that's perhaps more than enough about history.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed. To a degree, Serbia and Ukraine are inverse tragedies since Western nations can't suffer Serbia's ties to Russia while Russians can't suffer Ukraine's ties to the West.

    With refugees and returnees, it obviously goes without stating it that the longer the current Ukraine War lasts, the worse the reconstruction and return of emigrants will be. Ukraine obviously isn't exactly the same as Iraq, Libya, Syria or Serbia/Yugoslavia (Ukraine War seems to have less "ethnic cleansing" in particular, so far at least). Still, nothing suggests Ukraine will have some sort of good recovery as almost 10 million fled in total is terrible, especially a few million Russians to Russia, especially about return of displaced persons. Even economic recovery will have the scandal over seized Russian assets overshadowing it. Not to mention downturns in world economy. Overall, it's a really sad picture for Ukraine devotees.

    Replies: @sudden death, @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight.

    Even if formally it was voluntary action, in fact it was matter of strategic necessity, even with the price of near term dynastic clashes. Pagan Lithuania at the time unfortunately was bleeding white from that neverending hundred years war of Northern Crusades (not only Teutonic, but whole Christian European warring nobility was pouring into it) and it was ethnic Baltic core suffering the most at the western frontier, which had many significant setbacks in the second half of 14th century, e.g. loss of Kaunas castle, while in the east it didn’t have enough strenght left to subjugate and conquer several times besieged Kremlin fortress.

    When dynastic war ended relatively quickly in 1392 and ethnic Lithuanian Vytautas got the Lithuanian native ruler throne, even if formally being subjected to the higher status ruler king Jogaila, joint (Polish+Lithuanian+Slavic) forces several decades later managed to crush Teutonic army in Grunwald battle of 1410, which terminated the mortal threat from Western direction.

    So it was de facto triumphant outcome politically, because it got centuries lasting peace on Western frontier, also Vytautas was like Lukashenko (formally having Belarus union with RF since 1999) on steroids wrt Poland/Jogaila and even Lithuanian state remained politically de facto very separate entity (e.g. refused to join another Polish war against teutonic Prussia in 1454) for several centuries after until it again was strategically forced to go into closer union with Poland in 1569 Lublin, because of Muscovite pressure in Livonian war.

    • Thanks: ShortOnTime
    • Replies: @ShortOnTime
    @sudden death

    Obviously we could argue at length about whether the union with Poland was worthwhile for Lithuania. The issue was essentially that Lithuania chose not only Poland but also the Catholic faith and "the West" at that moment, which has proven to be a fraught choice ever since. With a large Orthodox Christian population in Belarus and Ukraine, that was bound to create strife. The other evident alternative was union or alignment with Moscow/Russia but that can clearly remain one of history's endless "what ifs". The union with Poland was clearly the moment when Lithuania's strategy of expanding to subjugate its Eastern Orthodox Slav neighbors for a manpower and resource base against the Teutonic knights failed. Even the previous failed conquests of Moscow too actually demonstrated the reality of Lithuania's eclipse by Poland and Russia in the latter half of the 14th century. The Polish-Lithuanian union also set the historical pattern of Russian-German rapprochement to bypass the Eastern European nationalities between Germans and Russia which was a longer term disaster for those between Germans and Russia (although so far in the 21st century that's not really much of an issue due to American hegemony in most of Europe, but the amount of hysteria such a theoretical possibility has driven with things like Nordstream 2 and the extent to which Germany arms Ukraine is actually amusing). Admittedly, I'm not very familiar with the civil wars in Lithuania of that era though.

    Otherwise, it does seem that the Kaliningrad exclave for Russia is actually arguably more of a liability than an asset for Russia. It's one among many most unfortunate Soviet era border drawing decisions that makes more ongoing strife between Russia against Poland and Lithuania (rest of Baltics and Scandinavians too) even more guaranteed in the 21st century.

    Btw, do you have any interesting reading recommendations about Pagan and Medieval Lithuania, especially in the 2-3 centuries before the union with Poland? (I've found one book on this that I'll probably get around to sometime eventually)

    As for AP, I'm not sure it's worth the effort to continue my discussion with him since it's just too much time and effort that wouldn't be spent in a worthwhile manner. Probably relitigating certain aspects of WW1 with him would be even more tiresome than anything about Ukraine and Russia. Most of Mr XYZ's seemingly endless history hypotheticals also don't seem worthwhile engaging either.

    Replies: @AP, @sudden death, @LatW

  163. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran. Which would be an absolute disaster, a lot worse than Iraq, and might be the final nail in the coffin of America's ever so benevolent hegemony. Also a good chance it will turn out very badly for Jews in the end since their ethnocentric lobbying efforts would be correctly identified as having played a major role in bringing about such a catastrophe.

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.

    They want war with Iran.

    Who is “They“? Who stated during the debate that they want to attack Iran? Also, remember the inevitable GOP candidate was not there. If someone, with at best marginal support, said something stupid it represents them, not the MAGA/GOP.

    MAGA policy during Trump’s 1st term was containing Iran. He refused to be baited by sociopath Khamenei’s repeated provocations. There’s every reason to believe that Trump’s 2nd term will resume this policy.

    Religious zealots in the Iranian theocracy want might find some way to start a war. That side is the far more pressing danger. Losing primary candidates and former officials (Pompeo, Bolton, etc.) have no war powers.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days. Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it, but I would venture to guess that almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.

    Replies: @A123

    , @German_reader
    @A123

    I didn't watch the debate myself, based my opinion on this summary:
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/republican-debate-israel/
    If it's inaccurate, you can point that out. But the statements by Haley and some others about cutting off the head of the snake seem quite unequivocal.

    Replies: @A123

  164. @Beckow
    @Derer

    True, but they don't want to accept it. They can't, it is their "identity". And too many people will not tell them.

    When ideology and reality collide bad things often happen.

    Replies: @A123

    Harris and Michelle Obama are unelectable, the affirmative action presidency was fulfilled by Hussein Obama and that will apply for couple of generations.

    True, but they don’t want to accept it. They can’t, it is their “identity”. And too many people will not tell them.

    When ideology and reality collide bad things often happen.

    I concur.

    Selecting a PoC female as VP was an implicit commitment to running someone from that group as the DNC Presidential candidate. Breaking that ‘promise’ with a white male nominee would blow up the Democrat party base.

    The DNC can duck this for the 2024 election by keeping Not-The-President Biden in the top slot on the ticket. The Veggie-in-Chief is their least bad choice. He will lose to Trump, but still leaves down ballot races in play. Blowing up the party or running Not-The-VP Harris are worse options.

    PEACE 😇

  165. @ShortOnTime
    @German_reader

    That has to be the most powerful links I've ever scrolled through.

    But to continue from the previous thread, I think Silviosilver clarified he was actually not a Serb but a Yugoslav. The more one researches Serbia/Yugoslavia the more one realizes those are 2 incompatible nationalities.

    Lots of interesting things can be said about Serbia. When one looks at all the types out there on Twitter/X focused on Serbia/Balkans, I wouldn't blame Serbs for being "nutters". Like imagine being exposed to types like that Gunther Fehlinger guy who became famous after calling to dismantle "genocide BRICS" and dismember Brazil and India, he even posted maps of alternative separatist statelets on "ex-Brazil" and "ex-India". Before becoming more famous for that I think he just constantly called on Serbia to be sanctioned, bombed, "Genocide Serbia" every single Tweet, etc. Crazy calls for constant NATO expansion and Atlanticist zealotry. He might be some sort of purposeful troll since he's from Austria but could be part of some prominent NATO/Euro-Atlantic Committee. IIRC, some time ago some Serbs doxxed Gunther's home address and the Austrian police responded in a thread to his complaint that they didn't take him seriously and he should just calm down. There is that saying that the Balkans begins in Austria.

    Otherwise Serbia's ties to Russia are obviously strongly rooted in Orthodox Christianity and historical-political connections over at least the last 2-3 centuries. Regarding current Serbia, I feel it will either end like Carthage in the 3rd Punic War (Carthaginian complaints about Numidian encroachment ignored; Serbia and Kosovo Albanians with surprisingly many Cato equivalents out there calling for Serbia to be destroyed) or really just sack of Carthage in 146 BC (Baghdad 2003 is a less severe but more recent version), or Serbia will somehow make a major turnaround like September 15th, 1918 when Serbia broke through the Macedonian front and had its moment sort of close to Balkan hegemony (thrown away with Yugoslavia of course). I was reminded of the latter as I brushed up on my WW1 history of Eastern Europe for the discussion with AP by reading a WW1 book. Serbia's breakthrough with the Entente in Macedonia is underrated since it was almost like reverse Gavrilo Princip assassination that triggered a WW1 spiral as the Macedonian breakthrough led to a WW1 winding down spiral instead.

    I tried reading Rebecca West's Black Lamb and Grey Falcon a few years ago too but it was ridiculously long. Got stuck somewhere around the Adriatic Coast. Although it's a work about history, it's also some prominent English woman's travel monologue and she has firmly pro-Jewish and anti-German opinions in the inter-war Europe context. She stands out for having pro-Serb sympathies, which fell out of fashion in the West long ago, of course.

    Regarding Serbia and Kosovo after some browsing, in the current climate it feels like this isn't even newsworthy anymore:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjska_attack

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Regarding Serbia and Kosovo after some browsing, in the current climate it feels like this isn’t even newsworthy anymore:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjska_attack

    NATO client is occupying Serbia land with Serbian residents and pursuing ethnic cleansing policy. Has Jake Sullivan said anything about how quiet the Balkans are under the brilliant diplomacy of the Biden Administration?

    • Agree: ShortOnTime
  166. @Mr. Hack
    @Barbarossa

    You're free to believe whatever you want, but I don't see how anybody can believe that all of the things written about within Revelations have already taken place. Some undoubtedly have, but it doesn't seem feasible that the Apocalypse has already taken place, with Christ sitting on his judgement seat ready to judge all of humanity and its eternal fate. Besides, Israel didn't crystalize into a modern nation/state until 1948, so how could all of it have already taken place?

    https://i.etsystatic.com/5322188/r/il/f8ba23/2635429337/il_794xN.2635429337_d7t9.jpg
    Right hand or left hand?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Like I said to A123, I don’t worry myself over Revelations or prophecy in general, since I regard it as well above my paygrade.

    I’m really more sympathetic to any of the interpretations of Revelations that are not the strict futurist or dispensationalist view. The historicist or symbolic interpretations also have significant merit as would a semi-preterist view. I wouldn’t really go for a hardline preterist view since there are too many issues there. I just threw it out there since it is the exact opposite of dispensationalist thinking.

    Besides, the current dispensationalist view as popularized by stuff like the Left Behind series is a very very recent development in thought on the book of Revelations.

    On Israel, I would take the stance of many Orthodox Jews that the current state of Israel can’t fulfill nuthin’ since it is really a secular ethno-state and now a religious Jewish state in any regard.

    Right hand or left hand?

    You can tell the Jews were pastoral people since the sheep were favored (right hand) and the goats were out of favor (left hand). Having been around both sheep and goats, my own take has been that goats are the Tweaker Punk-Ass Meth-Heads of the livestock world. Truly the devil’s own creature. If there is any piece of livestock which has a high probability of ending up standing on your car roof it will be a goat.

    It’s always fun to really “get” those biblical references first hand!

  167. @A123
    @German_reader



    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran.
     
    Who is "They"? Who stated during the debate that they want to attack Iran? Also, remember the inevitable GOP candidate was not there. If someone, with at best marginal support, said something stupid it represents them, not the MAGA/GOP.

    MAGA policy during Trump's 1st term was containing Iran. He refused to be baited by sociopath Khamenei's repeated provocations. There's every reason to believe that Trump's 2nd term will resume this policy.

    Religious zealots in the Iranian theocracy want might find some way to start a war. That side is the far more pressing danger. Losing primary candidates and former officials (Pompeo, Bolton, etc.) have no war powers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @German_reader

    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days. Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it, but I would venture to guess that almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa


    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days

     

    You know quite well that MAGA is actively and enthusiastically pushing out establishment warmongers from the GW days. I regularly use the term NeoConDemocrat to explicitly call out this change over.

    Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it
     
    If Bolton reenters politics, he would have to do so as a Democrat. He is even less popular than Mike Pence in the MAGA GOP.

    Yes, Lindsey Graham is an aggravating holdover. However, he is not a MAGA leader. In any group there will always he a few outliers. That is human nature in action. Six year terms in the Senate are exceptionally sticky in this regard.


    almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.
     
    Almost all war party Democrats would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works. MAGA would wisely resist putting boots in the ground in Iran. Not-The-President Biden cannot obtain a Declaration of War (or even an AUMF) to invade Iran.

    The hope for change there is internal. State Owned Enterprises have transformed the no longer revolutionary guard corps into aspiring capitalists. Iran could easily go the el-Sisi route to rejoin the community of civilized nations. Externally applied military force is obviously counter productive to this goal.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  168. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days. Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it, but I would venture to guess that almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.

    Replies: @A123

    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days

    You know quite well that MAGA is actively and enthusiastically pushing out establishment warmongers from the GW days. I regularly use the term NeoConDemocrat to explicitly call out this change over.

    Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it

    If Bolton reenters politics, he would have to do so as a Democrat. He is even less popular than Mike Pence in the MAGA GOP.

    Yes, Lindsey Graham is an aggravating holdover. However, he is not a MAGA leader. In any group there will always he a few outliers. That is human nature in action. Six year terms in the Senate are exceptionally sticky in this regard.

    almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.

    Almost all war party Democrats would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works. MAGA would wisely resist putting boots in the ground in Iran. Not-The-President Biden cannot obtain a Declaration of War (or even an AUMF) to invade Iran.

    The hope for change there is internal. State Owned Enterprises have transformed the no longer revolutionary guard corps into aspiring capitalists. Iran could easily go the el-Sisi route to rejoin the community of civilized nations. Externally applied military force is obviously counter productive to this goal.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    My experience is that in the rank and file MAGA folks there is much more ingrained loyalty to the GW style militarism than a dubiousness for forever wars. They have been on the "support the troops" and "fight them there so we don't have to here" mindset for decades and it is generally very ingrained.

    And even with Trump, it's not like he is necessarily opposed to a war, he just wants one that can be chalked up as a win. I think that Trump would have no issue with an Iran invasion if it seemed promising.

    Indirect regime change in Iran is certainly preferable in many Washington minds than invasion at this point, especially since we don't exactly have any rock solid staging base in Iraq, LOL.

    However, if there was a direct conflict with Iran I would be completely shocked if almost all the MAGA folks around me didn't enthusiastically support it with much waving or Israeli flags.

    Replies: @A123

  169. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran. Which would be an absolute disaster, a lot worse than Iraq, and might be the final nail in the coffin of America's ever so benevolent hegemony. Also a good chance it will turn out very badly for Jews in the end since their ethnocentric lobbying efforts would be correctly identified as having played a major role in bringing about such a catastrophe.

    Replies: @A123, @Mikel

    They want war with Iran.

    They’re desperate for it, especially the ones that Trump hired for his administration. If they had the same level of enthusiasm for immigration, wokeness, censorship and crime the Republican party would be in a great position. And anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily too, they’re all winning positions for most ordinary Americans. Instead, they try to outdo each other on who would hit Iran the hardest and give Israel the most unconditional support. Vivek is perhaps the most solid one on the issues but he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego. Anyway, if the MSM and Silicon Valley make Biden beat Trump again it will be a totally self-inflicted defeat and the US is changing so fast that I don’t know how much 2028 will matter.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Mikel


    the ones that Trump hired for his administration.
     
    Do you mean the ones that Mitch McConnell and the Non-MAGA Senate forced into the administration over Trump's objections?

    anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily
     
    Trump has a clear stand on those issues and will beat Biden easily.

    In his 1st term he shunned the warmongers, like Mitch McConnell's hire John Bolton, and refused to bite on Khamenei's provocations. Trump's track record avoiding new wars with Iran and elsewhere is a proven success story.

     
    https://modres.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/presidentswars.jpg
     

    If you want to be constructive, you should work on a MAGA Senate to support Trump's 2nd term. That would significantly improve (though not fully eliminate) inappropriate choices being forced into the administration over Trump's objections.

    PEACE 😇
    , @German_reader
    @Mikel


    and the US is changing so fast that I don’t know how much 2028 will matter.
     
    I recently saw claims on (formerly) Twitter that Biden's administration in three years has let in as many Latinos as had come in the previous 250 years. It's really extraordinary how immigration has escalated in recent years both in North America and key parts of Europe like Britain and Germany. I'm normally not one to believe in behind the scenes conspiracies, but sometimes I do wonder if this isn't to some extent a coordinated effort. The stated reasons for those policies don't make any sense either.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Wokechoke

    , @Beckow
    @Mikel


    ...he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego
     
    Isn't it in general true about all politicians?

    We have a blood-thirst, everyone wants a war. People don't listen, they emotionally shut down what they don't agree with. The odds of a fiery conflagration are better than we realize.

    The last few years will be summarized in a Chapter called Causes. But the real cause of this sh.t-storm is that we have had relative peace for too long, there are too many people, the business is stalled world-wide, the elites are powerless and thus suffer from hysteria. And we just don't like each other that much.

    Let's see, the three current bright Western ideas are to expel the Palis and hope that the billion of their angry supporters will stay quiet. To defeat Russia by using lots of newly-created money and a few hundred thousand not very smart Ukies. And to do something about China - it's not clear what, move the sweat-shops back to Glasgow or drug them again, something has to be done but the details are fuzzy.

    After decades of planning this is what they came up with? No wonder they are panicking.

  170. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    They want war with Iran.
     
    They're desperate for it, especially the ones that Trump hired for his administration. If they had the same level of enthusiasm for immigration, wokeness, censorship and crime the Republican party would be in a great position. And anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily too, they're all winning positions for most ordinary Americans. Instead, they try to outdo each other on who would hit Iran the hardest and give Israel the most unconditional support. Vivek is perhaps the most solid one on the issues but he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego. Anyway, if the MSM and Silicon Valley make Biden beat Trump again it will be a totally self-inflicted defeat and the US is changing so fast that I don't know how much 2028 will matter.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader, @Beckow

    the ones that Trump hired for his administration.

    Do you mean the ones that Mitch McConnell and the Non-MAGA Senate forced into the administration over Trump’s objections?

    anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily

    Trump has a clear stand on those issues and will beat Biden easily.

    In his 1st term he shunned the warmongers, like Mitch McConnell’s hire John Bolton, and refused to bite on Khamenei’s provocations. Trump’s track record avoiding new wars with Iran and elsewhere is a proven success story.

     

     

    If you want to be constructive, you should work on a MAGA Senate to support Trump’s 2nd term. That would significantly improve (though not fully eliminate) inappropriate choices being forced into the administration over Trump’s objections.

    PEACE 😇

  171. @A123
    @German_reader



    In fact, I had to stop watching the Republican debate for the same reason.
     
    They want war with Iran.
     
    Who is "They"? Who stated during the debate that they want to attack Iran? Also, remember the inevitable GOP candidate was not there. If someone, with at best marginal support, said something stupid it represents them, not the MAGA/GOP.

    MAGA policy during Trump's 1st term was containing Iran. He refused to be baited by sociopath Khamenei's repeated provocations. There's every reason to believe that Trump's 2nd term will resume this policy.

    Religious zealots in the Iranian theocracy want might find some way to start a war. That side is the far more pressing danger. Losing primary candidates and former officials (Pompeo, Bolton, etc.) have no war powers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @German_reader

    I didn’t watch the debate myself, based my opinion on this summary:
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/republican-debate-israel/
    If it’s inaccurate, you can point that out. But the statements by Haley and some others about cutting off the head of the snake seem quite unequivocal.

    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    I did not watch the junior league either. Lets run the numbers assuming your source is correct.

    • The statements by Haley ~8% and Scott ~2% are indeed clear. So, ~10% are FOR.
    • Trump ~60% and Vivek ~3% are also clear ~63% AGAINST.
    • DeSantis was non committal on the direct point, though blaming Not-The-President Biden was decent ground to stake out.

    So, the MAGA GOP is at least 6:1 AGAINST a stupid war in Iran. That seems vaguely credible, though 8:1 or 9:1 seems more likely. A couple of minor players desperate for attention are advocating "cutting off the head of the snake" policies. They will never have a chance to enact them, because they are a huge minority in the GOP.

    Hopefully the outburst will impair Haley's run, placing her on a downward trajectory in the next few polls.

    PEACE 😇

  172. Haley and Scott say that stuff because they know that they will never be President. If they were serious contenders, they’d be much more circumspect in their language. Don’t take their rhetoric seriously

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Greasy William


    Haley and Scott say that stuff because they know that they will never be President.
     
    You mean that they (and Pence and Christie and all the rest) say it because, knowing that they won't be President allows them to speak their minds more freely? Is that not even worse? With such a political class is it any wonder that we're back to the Cold War (with no ideological differences of any import)?
  173. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @German_reader


    They want war with Iran.
     
    They're desperate for it, especially the ones that Trump hired for his administration. If they had the same level of enthusiasm for immigration, wokeness, censorship and crime the Republican party would be in a great position. And anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily too, they're all winning positions for most ordinary Americans. Instead, they try to outdo each other on who would hit Iran the hardest and give Israel the most unconditional support. Vivek is perhaps the most solid one on the issues but he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego. Anyway, if the MSM and Silicon Valley make Biden beat Trump again it will be a totally self-inflicted defeat and the US is changing so fast that I don't know how much 2028 will matter.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader, @Beckow

    and the US is changing so fast that I don’t know how much 2028 will matter.

    I recently saw claims on (formerly) Twitter that Biden’s administration in three years has let in as many Latinos as had come in the previous 250 years. It’s really extraordinary how immigration has escalated in recent years both in North America and key parts of Europe like Britain and Germany. I’m normally not one to believe in behind the scenes conspiracies, but sometimes I do wonder if this isn’t to some extent a coordinated effort. The stated reasons for those policies don’t make any sense either.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @German_reader


    The stated reasons for those policies don’t make any sense either.
     
    None whatsoever. As far as I know, nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants but the millions that the US is letting in from Latin America and other places are admitted as "asylum seekers". The idea that all of a sudden so many millions need to flee their countries for political reasons and the only solution for the US is to let them in and supposedly spend tens of millions of man-hours at some point in the future examining the merits of each of their applications is so ridiculous that it's hard to understand how people are accepting it so meekly. It's just obvious that someone wants to radically change the demographics of the US.

    As I've mentioned in the past, I happen to know some of these asylum seekers. I hire them sometimes. I won't deny that they're cheaper so that's probably one of the reasons for the invasion. Some people clearly benefit from their presence, including myself at times. But the long term effects are not difficult to imagine. The other day I had a run-in with a Venezuelan truck driver that Home Depot sent me. A very unpleasant guy with a tremendous attitude. We ended up cursing at each other in Spanish (the only language he spoke). I know a family of asylum seekers who have been here for some 8 years but haven't bothered learning English. What for? Everything can be done in Spanish in Utah these days, including getting the husband's professional license. I have no idea if anyone has ever examined their asylum claim but it doesn't matter, they're not going anywhere. They've already had two children that were born in the US and are thus American citizens. It's interesting how nobody mentions deportations of the illegal population anymore. In 2016 it was at least conceivable in theory though obviously nobody was going to expel 11-30 million people anywhere. Now it's a pipe dream.

    Replies: @German_reader, @QCIC, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    , @Wokechoke
    @German_reader

    I know you can’t say Jew, so I’ll say it for you.

  174. Apparently they also have those climate change activists blocking traffic in Panama.
    An American boomer got out of his car and shot two of them:
    https://nitter.1d4.us/OliLondonTV/status/1722452548462797116#m

    • Replies: @Sher Singh
    @German_reader

    This is not very known, but Germany, for all the dooming about it, is actually in a healthier state than the other west euro nations. Of the current 0-18 cohort, 81% are Euros, 6% Turks, 9% MENA and only 2% Asian and 1.5% African. And yet they're already pushing for remigration.

    Compare with France, where 30-35% of the births are already Maghrebis and blacks, and yet the people are busy protesting pensions reforms. Same for the other countries where fast replacement is happening -- Anglosphere, Benelux, Sweden -- where the pushback also feels weak

    Sure, Germany is far from being perfect. It has a low birthrate, like Japan, and has had one for decades. Aging is bound to have severe consequences. But turning into Japan is incomparably better than turning into Brazil.

    https://nitter.net/dobrerestored/status/1722629839440720248#m

    Thoughts? Bit of a doofus wignat but yea..

    Replies: @German_reader

  175. @German_reader
    @Barbarossa


    She was mentioning a book which mentioned the sinking of the civilian loaded Wilhem Gustloff, which was I believe the worst maritime disaster in history.
     
    There were others in WW2 which were somewhat similar:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Lancastria
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_hospital_ship_Armenia

    Anyway, I normally don't even think there's much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2. But there's something profoundly warped about those militant Westerners who always believe they're re-fighting WW2 and get off on rather extreme fantasies about cathartic violence and collective punishment. It's a type that seems to have proliferated in Germany in recent years, strange phenomenon.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @AnonfromTN

    I normally don’t even think there’s much point to re-litigating something like the allied bombing offensive in WW2

    Generally speaking, no. However, history has predictive value. We must remember what countries bombed Dresden, killing and maiming thousands of civilians. We must also remember that a different country kicked Nazis out of Dresden. Every country has its specialization, and those do not change.

  176. @German_reader
    @A123

    I didn't watch the debate myself, based my opinion on this summary:
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/republican-debate-israel/
    If it's inaccurate, you can point that out. But the statements by Haley and some others about cutting off the head of the snake seem quite unequivocal.

    Replies: @A123

    I did not watch the junior league either. Lets run the numbers assuming your source is correct.

    • The statements by Haley ~8% and Scott ~2% are indeed clear. So, ~10% are FOR.
    • Trump ~60% and Vivek ~3% are also clear ~63% AGAINST.
    • DeSantis was non committal on the direct point, though blaming Not-The-President Biden was decent ground to stake out.

    So, the MAGA GOP is at least 6:1 AGAINST a stupid war in Iran. That seems vaguely credible, though 8:1 or 9:1 seems more likely. A couple of minor players desperate for attention are advocating “cutting off the head of the snake” policies. They will never have a chance to enact them, because they are a huge minority in the GOP.

    Hopefully the outburst will impair Haley’s run, placing her on a downward trajectory in the next few polls.

    PEACE 😇

  177. Sher Singh says:
    @German_reader
    Apparently they also have those climate change activists blocking traffic in Panama.
    An American boomer got out of his car and shot two of them:
    https://nitter.1d4.us/OliLondonTV/status/1722452548462797116#m

    Replies: @Sher Singh

    This is not very known, but Germany, for all the dooming about it, is actually in a healthier state than the other west euro nations. Of the current 0-18 cohort, 81% are Euros, 6% Turks, 9% MENA and only 2% Asian and 1.5% African. And yet they’re already pushing for remigration.

    Compare with France, where 30-35% of the births are already Maghrebis and blacks, and yet the people are busy protesting pensions reforms. Same for the other countries where fast replacement is happening — Anglosphere, Benelux, Sweden — where the pushback also feels weak

    Sure, Germany is far from being perfect. It has a low birthrate, like Japan, and has had one for decades. Aging is bound to have severe consequences. But turning into Japan is incomparably better than turning into Brazil.

    https://nitter.net/dobrerestored/status/1722629839440720248#m

    Thoughts? Bit of a doofus wignat but yea..

    • Agree: LondonBob, Barbarossa
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Sher Singh


    Thoughts?
     
    Maybe a bit too optimistic, but I agree that I don't think it's totally hopeless for Germany.
    Quite a bit of regional variation though. AfD is doing well in East Germany, and also has had quite a bit of success in the recent state elections in Bavaria and Hesse (in rural areas, smaller towns etc.). People in North-Rhine-Westphalia and North Germany seem irredeemably fucked in the head though. If present trends continue, I would hope the country eventually splits up, or that at least there'll be areas where the right-wing counter-culture becomes dominant.
  178. Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @LondonBob

    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    The Ukrainians have destroyed 3 separate armored attack columns. The videos are all at Funker530.

    Too early to say which side will prevail.

    There is a rumor that Russia plans on launching a massive human wave attack. This could be the massive WW1 style attack we joked about last year. Marching huge waves of men while artillery blows them to pieces.

    Perhaps it is a last ditch effort before the rain comes? Could get really bloody in the next 48 hours.

    Looks pretty cold for the attackers. A bad time to wait in the field for a medic. But who are we kidding, they won't be getting medivacs.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/avdiivka/322035/weather-forecast/322035

    Good luck Russian orcs. It is now time to die for the dwarf king and his glorious empire. I hope you enjoyed your time on earth.

    , @AP
    @LondonBob


    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.
     
    Reminder that you wrote in November 2022:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-202/#comment-5673059

    So the rest of the Ukrainian electrical grid has now been taken out, surely a big Russian offensive coming shortly. The nightmare scenario has now unfolded for Europe, and the West. Plenty of chances to strike a deal, now the Russians aren’t interested, wave of refugees, economic collapse accelerating, blackouts and a decisive NATO defeat incoming

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-201/#comment-5653346

    Watching Douglas Macgregor being interviewed on Redacted he makes the additional point that Russia is marshalling its forces for the big offensive, these are elite forces which will lead any assault, so require rest and refitting beforehand.

    January of this year:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-207/#comment-5779071

    Ugledar on the menu now. Unless a large reserve is being kept and trained than maybe the locals will be wrong and it will be all over before the end of the summer.

    [Vuhledar was a major Russian defeat]

    Replies: @LondonBob

  179. https://sonar21.com/u-s-inching-towards-world-war-iii-while-biden-administration-hides-u-s-casualties/

    Good piece by Larry, Israeli losses in Gaza and American losses in Mesopotamia are being covered up. Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @LondonBob


    Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.
     
    Would be completely impossible in Israeli society.

    Hamas is getting creamed but it doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective when Israel strives to avoid civilian casualties, which the IDF is blatantly not doing in this round.

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It's crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN, @Dmitry, @A123

  180. @LondonBob
    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @AP

    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    The Ukrainians have destroyed 3 separate armored attack columns. The videos are all at Funker530.

    Too early to say which side will prevail.

    There is a rumor that Russia plans on launching a massive human wave attack. This could be the massive WW1 style attack we joked about last year. Marching huge waves of men while artillery blows them to pieces.

    Perhaps it is a last ditch effort before the rain comes? Could get really bloody in the next 48 hours.

    Looks pretty cold for the attackers. A bad time to wait in the field for a medic. But who are we kidding, they won’t be getting medivacs.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/ua/avdiivka/322035/weather-forecast/322035

    Good luck Russian orcs. It is now time to die for the dwarf king and his glorious empire. I hope you enjoyed your time on earth.

    • Troll: Mikhail
  181. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    and the US is changing so fast that I don’t know how much 2028 will matter.
     
    I recently saw claims on (formerly) Twitter that Biden's administration in three years has let in as many Latinos as had come in the previous 250 years. It's really extraordinary how immigration has escalated in recent years both in North America and key parts of Europe like Britain and Germany. I'm normally not one to believe in behind the scenes conspiracies, but sometimes I do wonder if this isn't to some extent a coordinated effort. The stated reasons for those policies don't make any sense either.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Wokechoke

    The stated reasons for those policies don’t make any sense either.

    None whatsoever. As far as I know, nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants but the millions that the US is letting in from Latin America and other places are admitted as “asylum seekers”. The idea that all of a sudden so many millions need to flee their countries for political reasons and the only solution for the US is to let them in and supposedly spend tens of millions of man-hours at some point in the future examining the merits of each of their applications is so ridiculous that it’s hard to understand how people are accepting it so meekly. It’s just obvious that someone wants to radically change the demographics of the US.

    As I’ve mentioned in the past, I happen to know some of these asylum seekers. I hire them sometimes. I won’t deny that they’re cheaper so that’s probably one of the reasons for the invasion. Some people clearly benefit from their presence, including myself at times. But the long term effects are not difficult to imagine. The other day I had a run-in with a Venezuelan truck driver that Home Depot sent me. A very unpleasant guy with a tremendous attitude. We ended up cursing at each other in Spanish (the only language he spoke). I know a family of asylum seekers who have been here for some 8 years but haven’t bothered learning English. What for? Everything can be done in Spanish in Utah these days, including getting the husband’s professional license. I have no idea if anyone has ever examined their asylum claim but it doesn’t matter, they’re not going anywhere. They’ve already had two children that were born in the US and are thus American citizens. It’s interesting how nobody mentions deportations of the illegal population anymore. In 2016 it was at least conceivable in theory though obviously nobody was going to expel 11-30 million people anywhere. Now it’s a pipe dream.

    • Thanks: German_reader
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Mikel


    nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants
     
    In Germany that is the pretense, "asylum" is the magic door opener. Essentially the position is that you can't reject anybody at the borders, because they have a right to have their asylum application heard. And once people are inside the country, virtually nobody ever gets deported.
    I'm surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can't even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum. Most of these countries are at least semi-democratic in the sense of having regular elections and there aren't any large-scale wars in Latin America either. Even most internal insurgencies have died down. Sure, there's a lot of corruption and crime, so I suppose that's enough reason for Open Borderites.

    Replies: @AP

    , @QCIC
    @Mikel

    The migrant repatriation project is easy. After all, it's the human thing to do and if we all work together imagine what can be accomplished!

    Take 500 unused airliners*, 1 round trip per day (fly home empty, saves fuel), average 100 people each. 50,000 repatriated migrants per day!

    Three years is over 1000 days, so in that time 50,000,000 people (fifty million!) can be joyfully returned to their childhood homes from which they were brutally dragged by the White man's capitalism!

    Easy peasy!

    *Use 25 airports on either end of the trip home, 20 flights per day. The social cost savings would pay for the transport in real time, no amortization required. People who are currently dealing with the unhealthy immigration problem would have to take up many of the jobs performed by migrants. A lot of those jobs are make work so there is no problem.

    The overseas repatriation project is about the same. With modern air travel there is no reason these oppressed people have to put up with the dreaded Anglo-Americans. Boeing made the world a more compassionate place.

    These heartfelt activities might disrupt some sections of the economy so a case could be made to extend the program over a longer time. On the other hand, sometimes jumping into the cold water head first is best, so maybe knock out both programs in two years. The planes, crews and fuel all exist. Hmmm.

    Think of the healing!

    Next problem?

    Replies: @A123

    , @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere
    @Mikel


    Now it’s a pipe dream.
     


    https://twitter.com/kunley_drukpa/status/1723427867306918176
  182. @LondonBob
    https://sonar21.com/u-s-inching-towards-world-war-iii-while-biden-administration-hides-u-s-casualties/

    Good piece by Larry, Israeli losses in Gaza and American losses in Mesopotamia are being covered up. Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.

    Replies: @Greasy William

    Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.

    Would be completely impossible in Israeli society.

    Hamas is getting creamed but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective when Israel strives to avoid civilian casualties, which the IDF is blatantly not doing in this round.

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It’s crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Greasy William


    It’s crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated.
     
    Lebanon is not alone in this. Many a lot more serious geopolitical players are using Israeli genocide of Palestinians for PR purposes, but nobody gives a hoot about >2 million Gaza residents. The only law in this world is the law of the jungle.
    , @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    Israel had low deaths of soldiers so far in this war. I think it was 32 or 33 in the ground attack for now.

    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.

    Ukraine vs Russia disorganized, feudal-style of governments using infantry human wave attacks to Bakhmut or armored vehicles into mine fields in Zaporozhye or Avdeyevka. Governments of Russia and Ukraine don't know how many soldiers are fighting in the war. They also don't know how many people live in the country.

    Most of the information about the war in Ukraine, is from uploading videos to Telegram, like the military units are kind of feudal gangs, with no interest in the operational secrecy, while asking for netizens to send them equipment.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow. They follow military textbook. They don't upload the videos to Telegram to show their position. They don't do the human wave attacks. They try to remove the mines before driving the vehicles. They are outsourcing a lot of the decisions to the military textbooks and formal processes, which is an advantage from the view of the tactics, although the habit to outsource decisions can be a problem for strategy and probably goes to the top with creating of indecisive political leaders.

    There are pluses and minuses of the developed countries. We talk a lot about the minuses. Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.

    The modern state follows its rules and becomes impersonal, in a way the rule-following behavior becomes the plan, instead of a method.

    But one of the pluses at least you won't be doing human wave style of attacks in Bakhmut or uploading videos on Telegram asking for netizens to donate drones to your unit in exchange for writing their name on bombs.


    Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective
     
    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective. But they have the negative situation - light weapons only, limited ammunition. People with light weapons that can be moved into the tunnels under the border with Egypt, fighting against people with guided missiles.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.

    In the Gaza war in 2014, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War

    In the long term, you could say Hamas has won the 2014 Gaza war, as Hamas becomes stronger after the war, while Israel reduced international support. Israel had meaningless tactical victories, Hamas had meaningful strategic victories.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @LondonBob

    , @A123
    @Greasy William


    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It’s crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.
     

    Iranian Hamas accidentally changed Israeli strategy:
        • From / Policing -- Which was marginally effective.
        • To / War -- Where the IDF has massive advantages.
    Hamas needs an outside rescue to survive, and none is coming.

    Russia is keeping their client Syria out of the fray. This is no surprise as Russia has been allowing Israel to strike freely at Iranian targets for some time.

    Hezbollah/Iran have no options. The claim of tens of thousands of accurate missiles is apparently a bluff. They simply have no viable option for a ground offensive into Jewish Palestine on a highly predictable front. Plus, they would have to butcher the blue helmets of UNIFIL who are in the way.

    PEACE 😇

  183. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    They want war with Iran.
     
    They're desperate for it, especially the ones that Trump hired for his administration. If they had the same level of enthusiasm for immigration, wokeness, censorship and crime the Republican party would be in a great position. And anyone with a clear stand on those issues should beat Biden easily too, they're all winning positions for most ordinary Americans. Instead, they try to outdo each other on who would hit Iran the hardest and give Israel the most unconditional support. Vivek is perhaps the most solid one on the issues but he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego. Anyway, if the MSM and Silicon Valley make Biden beat Trump again it will be a totally self-inflicted defeat and the US is changing so fast that I don't know how much 2028 will matter.

    Replies: @A123, @German_reader, @Beckow

    …he comes across untrustworthy with his oversized ego

    Isn’t it in general true about all politicians?

    We have a blood-thirst, everyone wants a war. People don’t listen, they emotionally shut down what they don’t agree with. The odds of a fiery conflagration are better than we realize.

    The last few years will be summarized in a Chapter called Causes. But the real cause of this sh.t-storm is that we have had relative peace for too long, there are too many people, the business is stalled world-wide, the elites are powerless and thus suffer from hysteria. And we just don’t like each other that much.

    Let’s see, the three current bright Western ideas are to expel the Palis and hope that the billion of their angry supporters will stay quiet. To defeat Russia by using lots of newly-created money and a few hundred thousand not very smart Ukies. And to do something about China – it’s not clear what, move the sweat-shops back to Glasgow or drug them again, something has to be done but the details are fuzzy.

    After decades of planning this is what they came up with? No wonder they are panicking.

  184. @Greasy William
    @LondonBob


    Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.
     
    Would be completely impossible in Israeli society.

    Hamas is getting creamed but it doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective when Israel strives to avoid civilian casualties, which the IDF is blatantly not doing in this round.

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It's crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN, @Dmitry, @A123

    It’s crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated.

    Lebanon is not alone in this. Many a lot more serious geopolitical players are using Israeli genocide of Palestinians for PR purposes, but nobody gives a hoot about >2 million Gaza residents. The only law in this world is the law of the jungle.

  185. Trump’s Nazi Arab lawyer Alina Habba is so beautiful

  186. @A123
    @Barbarossa


    You know quite well that a huge amount the Republican Party has had a hard-on for a hot war with Iran since the GW days

     

    You know quite well that MAGA is actively and enthusiastically pushing out establishment warmongers from the GW days. I regularly use the term NeoConDemocrat to explicitly call out this change over.

    Guys like Bolton or Graham are very vocal about it
     
    If Bolton reenters politics, he would have to do so as a Democrat. He is even less popular than Mike Pence in the MAGA GOP.

    Yes, Lindsey Graham is an aggravating holdover. However, he is not a MAGA leader. In any group there will always he a few outliers. That is human nature in action. Six year terms in the Senate are exceptionally sticky in this regard.


    almost all Republicans would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works.
     
    Almost all war party Democrats would enthusiastically get on board if it was in the works. MAGA would wisely resist putting boots in the ground in Iran. Not-The-President Biden cannot obtain a Declaration of War (or even an AUMF) to invade Iran.

    The hope for change there is internal. State Owned Enterprises have transformed the no longer revolutionary guard corps into aspiring capitalists. Iran could easily go the el-Sisi route to rejoin the community of civilized nations. Externally applied military force is obviously counter productive to this goal.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    My experience is that in the rank and file MAGA folks there is much more ingrained loyalty to the GW style militarism than a dubiousness for forever wars. They have been on the “support the troops” and “fight them there so we don’t have to here” mindset for decades and it is generally very ingrained.

    And even with Trump, it’s not like he is necessarily opposed to a war, he just wants one that can be chalked up as a win. I think that Trump would have no issue with an Iran invasion if it seemed promising.

    Indirect regime change in Iran is certainly preferable in many Washington minds than invasion at this point, especially since we don’t exactly have any rock solid staging base in Iraq, LOL.

    However, if there was a direct conflict with Iran I would be completely shocked if almost all the MAGA folks around me didn’t enthusiastically support it with much waving or Israeli flags.

    • Agree: Mikel
    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa

    My experience with rank & file MAGA folks -- "Losing the Peace" in Iraq drove huge numbers away from GW style militarism. The massive failure in Ukraine has intensified open opposition to idiotic Forever Wars. Establishment GW supporters are now on the DNC side.

    I am not aware of a single MAGA supporter, even second hand, that would opt for putting boots on the ground in Iran. It is a ludicrous non-starter as a "war of choice".

    If Iran intentionally started a war with the U.S. then the MAGA rank & file would "support the troops". However, they would also demand a sensible plan towards victory. Something that is sorely lacking in Kiev aggression.
    ___

    Backing Judeo-Christian Israel against terrorist threats is something of a special case.

    -1- The fact that Islam intentionally targets children is so repugnant and inhumane that a response is necessary and justified. That being said, there is no huge rush of people hoisting blue & white flags.

    -2- SJW🏳️‍🌈Islam also generates support for Israel.

     
    https://media.notthebee.com/articles/64cd6673-889d-443b-b57a-892848d37317.jpg
     

    Things like this create massive sympathy for indigenous Palestinian Jews who are plagued with their own version of Only Black/Muslim Lives Matter.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

  187. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,...) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won't be in Nato - Russia won that part of the war.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources - remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works, Finland prospers. When the border is restricted, Finland does worse. Ask any Finnish businessman.

    Selling is not the point. It is about "selling for how much" - by joining Nato Finland switched to paying more, selling less to Russia and with higher costs. If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target - up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.

    Your fabulation about Russia "invading Finland next" or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance. Are Russians invading Bretagne next for the oysters? If we judge countries by the loose talk on shows or made-up spy leaks we will live in paranoia. Have you seen some of the nuts on the American shows? What does that have to with anything?


    The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood...Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.
     
    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood? no kidding...so why are they self-destructing like lemmings? Are Nordics into that too? It looks like that occasionally.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The "Nordic" ideology lost the biggest war in human history, WW2 - and Russia won it. You can't go back and redo it. We are living with the consequences and only an idiot would try to reverse it. Good luck.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @sudden death

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,…) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won’t be in Nato – Russia won that part of the war.

    Not much of a discussion when you ignore most of my questions.

    We don’t know if Ukraine will join NATO. This war could go a lot of directions.

    Putin may be happy to get his Donbas consolation prize without neutrality for Ukraine.

    He rarely mentions NATO and in his recent speeches describes the war as protecting Donbas.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources – remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works

    What did I say was incorrect? Finland’s trade status with Russia is public record:

    https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/fin

    Their largest export to Russia is half a billion in copper. Whoopdy doo. Copper can be sold elsewhere.

    As with most of Europe they treat Russia like a gas station.

    No one cares about Russian products.

    Europeans just want to do a quick stop at Frodo’s Gas ‘n Nuke.

    Your fabulation about Russia “invading Finland next” or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance.

    How would it be ignorance if no one knows the full plans of Putin?

    When Putin had his “training exercise” on the border it was military expert and masturbation specialist Scott Ritter that published a rant on Russian media on how Putin won’t invade and it’s all a CIA conspiracy. Didn’t age well.

    But I’m “ignorant” (it means to lack knowledge) for suggesting Putin could have invaded Finland? Why exactly? The Belarus doofus leaked the plan to invade Moldova after Ukraine. Why not add Finland as well? Putin probably wishes he went after Finland and Kazakhstan instead.

    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood?

    Yes they have more Nordic blood. You can call it Scandinavian blood if you want. I already had someone on here flip out by the suggestion and I backed the assertion with a DNA study. I can dig up that study if you would like.

    Russians have more Asian DNA while Ukrainians and Latvians have more Viking DNA. This shouldn’t be a surprise given the history of the area. The further East you go the more likely it is that the people were under Mongols and not the Swedes. I don’t know why this is so difficult. If anything the White nationalists have strange delusions about Russians. Anglin seemed to think they were pure bred White Christians.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The “Nordic” ideology lost the biggest war in human history.

    Most Germans aren’t Nordic and pointing out Viking influence and genetics does not make one a Nazi. The Vikings were real people with identifiable DNA. Yes it is a modern/leftist belief that European tribes never existed and all White people are just plain White. Well we can identify these groups with DNA even if leftists tell us they don’t exist.

    Largest Viking DNA study
    https://www.archaeology.org/issues/406-2101/features/9266-viking-genetic-study

  188. @Hapalong Cassidy
    Just stopped by to see if anything has changed on these threads, and nope it hasn’t. One obvious paid shill putting in a lot of hours and effort to monopolize the whole thread, as usual. Hope the money is worth it.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I would imagine that UNZ would be the cushy sinecure of the paid online troll world, right? Wide latitude, long form discourse trollery at its finest. A place where the paid troll can really hone his craft at a leisurely pace.

    Imagine getting assigned to the Breitbart comments section or some similar hell-hole.

  189. @Derer
    @John Johnson

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion. That same politburo just "successfully" persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    Replies: @WS, @John Johnson

    You are so naive in believing that Finland joined NATO on their free will. You do not understand the Washington politburo methods of persuasion/coercion.

    So why didn’t they pressure Finland into joining NATO during the last 20 years?

    That same politburo just “successfully” persuaded Ukrainian to join NATO.

    Ukraine has not joined NATO.

    Ukraine would have to apply before joining NATO and they don’t qualify for a variety of reasons, the current one being they are in a war. You can’t apply with a contended border and that is why they haven’t qualified since 2014.

    Ukraine would like to join NATO but we don’t know if it will happen. The war could end with them making a deal with Russia that includes neutrality. Putin will tout that as a success and his Totalitarian TV news won’t mention that Finland is in NATO and has more border with Russia.

    Putin could propose that Finland backs out of NATO as part of a deal. But he rarely talks about NATO which is one of many reasons why I don’t think that was the cause of the war. If NATO was truly the cause then he would have sent an ultimatum before attacking.

  190. @Beckow
    @John Johnson

    You and I should agree not to discuss Nato in Ukraine. What looks obvious to any observer (Mearsheimer, Sachs,...) you deny. Fine, it is water under the bridge now, Kiev won't be in Nato - Russia won that part of the war.

    You know nothing about Finland and its economy: what it sells and buys. It is an advanced economy with high costs and lack of many essential resources - remoteness makes things costly. It has traded with Russia for the last 1000 years: when that works, Finland prospers. When the border is restricted, Finland does worse. Ask any Finnish businessman.

    Selling is not the point. It is about "selling for how much" - by joining Nato Finland switched to paying more, selling less to Russia and with higher costs. If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target - up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.

    Your fabulation about Russia "invading Finland next" or hot talk on Russian talk shows displays your ignorance. Are Russians invading Bretagne next for the oysters? If we judge countries by the loose talk on shows or made-up spy leaks we will live in paranoia. Have you seen some of the nuts on the American shows? What does that have to with anything?


    The Ukrainians have more Nordic blood...Ukraine is not only Whiter but has stricter immigration controls.
     
    Now we are home: the proto-fascist inside you comes out. Nordic blood? no kidding...so why are they self-destructing like lemmings? Are Nordics into that too? It looks like that occasionally.

    It is a losing argument, your Nazi teenage fantasies only make you look lost. The "Nordic" ideology lost the biggest war in human history, WW2 - and Russia won it. You can't go back and redo it. We are living with the consequences and only an idiot would try to reverse it. Good luck.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @sudden death

    If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target – up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.

    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @sudden death

    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Neutrality does mean something in the nuclear age.

    It means you are vulnerable to invasion. See: Ukraine.

    Austria at least has natural defenses and doesn't border Russia.

    Finland is vulnerable to invasion. Russia just has to take the southern tip. The rest of the country can be cut off and frozen into submission. Helsinki is on the water and is vulnerable to Naval attacks. A Russian convoy could pass as if it is headed to St. Petersburg and then open fire.

    I'm surprised that Finland didn't join NATO sooner. The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago. Finland was an obvious target.

    Replies: @Mikel

    , @Beckow
    @sudden death


    ....neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target
     
    No, it wasn't, nobody was going to nuke Vienna. What you are talking about was in the case Nato used the Austrian territory to attack the Soviets and there was fighting in Austria. That was possible, Austria sits in the center of Europe. Helsinki in Nato is completely different, they are literally now the front-line - and they were not involved before if Finns would stay out. In any case, it it happens, it won't matter that much, we are all f...d...

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @sudden death

  191. @Greasy William
    Haley and Scott say that stuff because they know that they will never be President. If they were serious contenders, they'd be much more circumspect in their language. Don't take their rhetoric seriously

    Replies: @Mikel

    Haley and Scott say that stuff because they know that they will never be President.

    You mean that they (and Pence and Christie and all the rest) say it because, knowing that they won’t be President allows them to speak their minds more freely? Is that not even worse? With such a political class is it any wonder that we’re back to the Cold War (with no ideological differences of any import)?

  192. You mean that they (and Pence and Christie and all the rest) say it because, knowing that they won’t be President allows them to speak their minds more freely?

    Yeah

    Is that not even worse?

    Not really because we’ve always known that this was what they believed.

    No President is ever going to deliberately go to war with Russia, China or Iran, even though we know that they’d all love to do just that were it possible. That’s all that matters.

  193. @Greasy William
    @LondonBob


    Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.
     
    Would be completely impossible in Israeli society.

    Hamas is getting creamed but it doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective when Israel strives to avoid civilian casualties, which the IDF is blatantly not doing in this round.

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It's crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN, @Dmitry, @A123

    Israel had low deaths of soldiers so far in this war. I think it was 32 or 33 in the ground attack for now.

    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.

    Ukraine vs Russia disorganized, feudal-style of governments using infantry human wave attacks to Bakhmut or armored vehicles into mine fields in Zaporozhye or Avdeyevka. Governments of Russia and Ukraine don’t know how many soldiers are fighting in the war. They also don’t know how many people live in the country.

    Most of the information about the war in Ukraine, is from uploading videos to Telegram, like the military units are kind of feudal gangs, with no interest in the operational secrecy, while asking for netizens to send them equipment.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow. They follow military textbook. They don’t upload the videos to Telegram to show their position. They don’t do the human wave attacks. They try to remove the mines before driving the vehicles. They are outsourcing a lot of the decisions to the military textbooks and formal processes, which is an advantage from the view of the tactics, although the habit to outsource decisions can be a problem for strategy and probably goes to the top with creating of indecisive political leaders.

    There are pluses and minuses of the developed countries. We talk a lot about the minuses. Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.

    The modern state follows its rules and becomes impersonal, in a way the rule-following behavior becomes the plan, instead of a method.

    But one of the pluses at least you won’t be doing human wave style of attacks in Bakhmut or uploading videos on Telegram asking for netizens to donate drones to your unit in exchange for writing their name on bombs.

    Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective

    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective. But they have the negative situation – light weapons only, limited ammunition. People with light weapons that can be moved into the tunnels under the border with Egypt, fighting against people with guided missiles.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.

    In the Gaza war in 2014, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War

    In the long term, you could say Hamas has won the 2014 Gaza war, as Hamas becomes stronger after the war, while Israel reduced international support. Israel had meaningless tactical victories, Hamas had meaningful strategic victories.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.

    • LOL: LondonBob
    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Dmitry


    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.
     
    It's more that antisemites live in a total dream world. Anyone who knows anything about Israel would know that you can't hide the loss of a single soldier.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow.
     
    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

    Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.
     
    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is "survival", like it's the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective
     
    Hamas aren't Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren't very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.
     
    And all of those things became moot after Oct 7th. Hamas threw away all of their advantages for a short term propaganda win. In Hamas's defense, however, there is no way they could have known that the IDF would fuck up as badly as it did on the 7th, nor could Hamas have predicted that Israel would retaliate. I myself was 100% certain that Israel wouldn't retaliate (and I still believe that was Bibi's initial intended course of action) and I definitely wouldn't have anticipated the US and other Western states backing said retaliation.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.
     
    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They'll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza. The IDF has already started building permanent structures.

    What the Resistance Axis has to hope for is that Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas. The problem is that Israel can't agree to a ceasefire until it gets the hostages back. And even if Hamas does give back the hostages, Bibi still can't agree to a ceasefire because if he does he'll be toppled and go to prison. Bibi's political weakness makes it impossible for him to surrender like he wants to.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @LondonBob
    @Dmitry

    Most of the people who I read who cover the war in the Ukraine are laughing at the IDF.

  194. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    My experience is that in the rank and file MAGA folks there is much more ingrained loyalty to the GW style militarism than a dubiousness for forever wars. They have been on the "support the troops" and "fight them there so we don't have to here" mindset for decades and it is generally very ingrained.

    And even with Trump, it's not like he is necessarily opposed to a war, he just wants one that can be chalked up as a win. I think that Trump would have no issue with an Iran invasion if it seemed promising.

    Indirect regime change in Iran is certainly preferable in many Washington minds than invasion at this point, especially since we don't exactly have any rock solid staging base in Iraq, LOL.

    However, if there was a direct conflict with Iran I would be completely shocked if almost all the MAGA folks around me didn't enthusiastically support it with much waving or Israeli flags.

    Replies: @A123

    My experience with rank & file MAGA folks — “Losing the Peace” in Iraq drove huge numbers away from GW style militarism. The massive failure in Ukraine has intensified open opposition to idiotic Forever Wars. Establishment GW supporters are now on the DNC side.

    I am not aware of a single MAGA supporter, even second hand, that would opt for putting boots on the ground in Iran. It is a ludicrous non-starter as a “war of choice”.

    If Iran intentionally started a war with the U.S. then the MAGA rank & file would “support the troops”. However, they would also demand a sensible plan towards victory. Something that is sorely lacking in Kiev aggression.
    ___

    Backing Judeo-Christian Israel against terrorist threats is something of a special case.

    -1- The fact that Islam intentionally targets children is so repugnant and inhumane that a response is necessary and justified. That being said, there is no huge rush of people hoisting blue & white flags.

    -2- SJW🏳️‍🌈Islam also generates support for Israel.

      

    Things like this create massive sympathy for indigenous Palestinian Jews who are plagued with their own version of Only Black/Muslim Lives Matter.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    I am not aware of a single MAGA supporter, even second hand, that would opt for putting boots on the ground in Iran. It is a ludicrous non-starter as a “war of choice”.

    MAGAs will defend whatever Trump decides. Very similar to Putin defenders.

    Look at how they defend his long list of pending felonies.

    I still have not met a single MAGA supporter that has actually read about the classified documents. They've only heard about it on Fox and assume it is all part of a GET TRUMP conspiracy. Trump says he is innocent so that is enough.

    He could declare war with Iran and they would cheer.

    If Iran intentionally started a war with the U.S. then the MAGA rank & file would “support the troops”. However, they would also demand a sensible plan towards victory.

    That would happen and actually shows the madness of the MAGA cult. Wanting a path to victory instead of asking why the war exists.

    It is looking like Trump won't escape a charge on his Fraud U case. The classified documents case is much worse. He is on tape trying to cover it up.

  195. @Greasy William
    @LondonBob


    Seems like the Israelis are releasing the names of dead officers and omitting the names of lower ranks.
     
    Would be completely impossible in Israeli society.

    Hamas is getting creamed but it doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective when Israel strives to avoid civilian casualties, which the IDF is blatantly not doing in this round.

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It's crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN, @Dmitry, @A123

    The real challenge for Israel is going to be the coming war against Lebanon/Syria/Iran, a much geographically broader front against a much more skilled and better equipped enemy.

    It’s crazy that Lebanon is just sitting back and watching Gaza get annihilated. When Israel invades Lebanon, the Lebanese will have nobody to help them.

    Iranian Hamas accidentally changed Israeli strategy:
        • From / Policing — Which was marginally effective.
        • To / War — Where the IDF has massive advantages.
    Hamas needs an outside rescue to survive, and none is coming.

    Russia is keeping their client Syria out of the fray. This is no surprise as Russia has been allowing Israel to strike freely at Iranian targets for some time.

    Hezbollah/Iran have no options. The claim of tens of thousands of accurate missiles is apparently a bluff. They simply have no viable option for a ground offensive into Jewish Palestine on a highly predictable front. Plus, they would have to butcher the blue helmets of UNIFIL who are in the way.

    PEACE 😇

  196. @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    Israel had low deaths of soldiers so far in this war. I think it was 32 or 33 in the ground attack for now.

    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.

    Ukraine vs Russia disorganized, feudal-style of governments using infantry human wave attacks to Bakhmut or armored vehicles into mine fields in Zaporozhye or Avdeyevka. Governments of Russia and Ukraine don't know how many soldiers are fighting in the war. They also don't know how many people live in the country.

    Most of the information about the war in Ukraine, is from uploading videos to Telegram, like the military units are kind of feudal gangs, with no interest in the operational secrecy, while asking for netizens to send them equipment.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow. They follow military textbook. They don't upload the videos to Telegram to show their position. They don't do the human wave attacks. They try to remove the mines before driving the vehicles. They are outsourcing a lot of the decisions to the military textbooks and formal processes, which is an advantage from the view of the tactics, although the habit to outsource decisions can be a problem for strategy and probably goes to the top with creating of indecisive political leaders.

    There are pluses and minuses of the developed countries. We talk a lot about the minuses. Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.

    The modern state follows its rules and becomes impersonal, in a way the rule-following behavior becomes the plan, instead of a method.

    But one of the pluses at least you won't be doing human wave style of attacks in Bakhmut or uploading videos on Telegram asking for netizens to donate drones to your unit in exchange for writing their name on bombs.


    Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective
     
    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective. But they have the negative situation - light weapons only, limited ammunition. People with light weapons that can be moved into the tunnels under the border with Egypt, fighting against people with guided missiles.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.

    In the Gaza war in 2014, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War

    In the long term, you could say Hamas has won the 2014 Gaza war, as Hamas becomes stronger after the war, while Israel reduced international support. Israel had meaningless tactical victories, Hamas had meaningful strategic victories.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @LondonBob

    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.

    It’s more that antisemites live in a total dream world. Anyone who knows anything about Israel would know that you can’t hide the loss of a single soldier.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow.

    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

    Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.

    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is “survival”, like it’s the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective

    Hamas aren’t Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren’t very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.

    And all of those things became moot after Oct 7th. Hamas threw away all of their advantages for a short term propaganda win. In Hamas’s defense, however, there is no way they could have known that the IDF would fuck up as badly as it did on the 7th, nor could Hamas have predicted that Israel would retaliate. I myself was 100% certain that Israel wouldn’t retaliate (and I still believe that was Bibi’s initial intended course of action) and I definitely wouldn’t have anticipated the US and other Western states backing said retaliation.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.

    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They’ll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza. The IDF has already started building permanent structures.

    What the Resistance Axis has to hope for is that Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas. The problem is that Israel can’t agree to a ceasefire until it gets the hostages back. And even if Hamas does give back the hostages, Bibi still can’t agree to a ceasefire because if he does he’ll be toppled and go to prison. Bibi’s political weakness makes it impossible for him to surrender like he wants to.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Greasy William


    antisemites live in a total dream world
     
    That is not related to antisemitism. Russia/Ukraine are a low trust society where you cannot believe government data as the numbers are always changed. For example, the last census is the most inaccurate since Stalin census in 1937, with millions of citizens missing.

    Of course, Israeli culture is like a village, even if the government was not accountable, they can't hide missing soldiers.


    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

     

    Why "our"? You don't understand a letter of Hebrew and didn't visit Israel? It's the same discussion I had with Talha last week.

    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is “survival”, like it’s the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

     

    The Warsaw Ghetto was stage for deportation of Jews, it's not comparable to the lack of strategies of most of the modern developed/bourgeois democracies, which includes countries like Germany, United Kingdom or France. What is the strategy of France nowadays?

    Israel follows the bourgeois democracies, mainly interested in not stopping the economic growth, increasing the international relations etc.

    From the security view, they were investing in missile defense, instead of destroying the missile capacity of their enemies with an active policy. So, instead they avoid war, by investing in things like missile defense. Because the missile defense unlike war, doesn't require stopping economic growth, difficult decisions, the evacuation of cities, destruction of the tourism, loss of the immigrants.

    It's economic costs you see in Israel now, as many cities have been evacuated, hundreds of thousands of reservists removed from the labor, economy goes to recession.


    Hamas aren’t Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren’t very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.
     
    This is incorrect. Hezbollah lost over 60 soldiers in the last month trying to fire anti-tank weapons in Southern Lebanon, where they are killed by drones. Hamas soldiers are not so incompetent. Hamas is training their soldiers to avoid those kind of defeats and they don't walk under drones.

    Hamas soldiers also have a nationalist goal to combine with jihadism, which is the Palestinian national objective, while Hezbollah is more purely jihadism and messianism.

    Hamas only has light weapons, which they can carry under the border with Egypt. They have limited ammunition and they need to build their own weapons. Hamas has technological autochany, engineering skills, they build most of their own weapons and also engineer the tunnels.

    But Hezbollah has access to heavy weapons, they are not restricted in the ammunition or weapons. They don't need to carry them under the border with Egypt. They have the open external supply, they don't build their own weapons. They are also not enfolded on all their sides by Israel. They are part of the government of a country with millions of people.

    This is Hezbollah is today more like a conventional military with heavy weapons.


    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They’ll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza.
     
    Strategic victory for Israel would be like Nagorno Karabakh, which the Arabs and international community would not allow, so it's probably unlikely. Also Israeli officials already said they won't do this.

    To occupy Gaza while reducing the separation of the populations, could be probably strategic defeat for Israel, possible victory for the Palestinian nationalism.

    The intermediate would be increasing the separation of the Gazans and the Israelis.

    -

    *The war government is only three people, Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz. Gantz already said they won't remove Gaza or have a "view to the sea".

    Replies: @A123, @Greasy William

  197. @Mikel
    @Dmitry

    What you are describing is general guidelines for the distribution of sympathies towards both sides of the Israel/Arab conflict in Western Europe (not sure about EE). But one shouldn't confuse general sympathy or proclivity with actual support for any one side. My experience with many people of different Western European countries is that very few people feel the need to side with one or the other.

    As G_R said, it's a tedious issue that has been there forever in everyone's lifetimes and it's difficult to feel that anyone can do much about it or even say anything new about it. Israel is generally seen as much closer socially to us so it could potentially get much more support but, on the one hand, there is the very heavy-handed tactics that they always use and on the other hand, the religious thing that, to some extent or the other, leads Israelis to have further expansionists tendencies is also perceived as alienating.

    The only more or less novel thing that I could say is that here in the US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe (with the apparent exception of Germany) and there is also a very important religious component that is absent in Europe. Mormons seem to be as supportive of Israel as evangelicals, which is not surprising considering the central role that Israel plays in their sacred books. Utah is full of Jewish toponyms everywhere: Nephi, Lehi, Zion, Moab, Nebo, Kanab,... People around me who didn't express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flags on their front yards.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Dmitry

    US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe

    In many of the Western Europe countries, the media has anti-Israel views. If you look in Republic of Ireland or United Kingdom.

    In Republic of Ireland, the main view is pro-Palestine and this is also in the media. It’s similar for the Scandinavian societies.

    People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flag

    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.

    There is an overlap of the “pro-Western bloc” views which are encouraged in the Mormon culture and Cold War “Manichaeists’” perception of the external policy, which supports Ukraine.

    If you remember early 2022, excluding the populist Tucker Carlson side, the Republican Party was mainly supporting Ukraine from Cold War style of policy.

    It seems like this year, the Republican positions are becoming less pro-Ukraine, as the politicians are seeing the popularity of the more isolationist positions and accepting Trump will be the presidential candidate.

    But the geopolitics is returning more to blocs and a new Cold War. So, the external policy of even Trump might still be to support Ukraine, even if it is relatively more unpopular with the Republican voters.

    By the way, there is an interesting documentary in 1987 about the war in Nicaragua. Reagan begins to support the Contras even without public support. But then Congress begins to talk about ending the funding for the Contras, then Reagan begins the PR policy for pro-Contras public views.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wUfevC9LHs.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.
     
    I don't remember that. Are you not confusing Ukraine with Afghanistan?

    In any case, it doesn't have anything to do with my comment about the obvious connection between Israel (where the "Nephites" and "Lamanites" allegedly came from) and the Mormon religion. A year ago most Utahns (like most Americans) strongly supported Ukraine and today I see that some religious Mormons are putting up US-Israel flags on their front yards, which is more than they did about Ukraine. I can't say for sure but I know them and it's quite likely a local ward initiative. I wouldn't be surprised if the guidelines come from higher up too.

    Both things can perfectly be true at the same time, can they not? In the same way that Israel may be justified in responding militarily to the October 7th attacks but is not justified in ignoring the Geneva Convention and killing thousands of innocent people. It's not complicated really.

    PS- As a matter of fact, Israel could have perfectly chosen to respond to the attacks in a strictly legal way, by trying to bring the masterminds and perpetrators to justice, like so many civilized countries have done with their own terrorist groups. It's difficult, time-consuming and not too rewarding for those seeking instant retribution but it often works quite well in the long term.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  198. @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    Israel had low deaths of soldiers so far in this war. I think it was 32 or 33 in the ground attack for now.

    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.

    Ukraine vs Russia disorganized, feudal-style of governments using infantry human wave attacks to Bakhmut or armored vehicles into mine fields in Zaporozhye or Avdeyevka. Governments of Russia and Ukraine don't know how many soldiers are fighting in the war. They also don't know how many people live in the country.

    Most of the information about the war in Ukraine, is from uploading videos to Telegram, like the military units are kind of feudal gangs, with no interest in the operational secrecy, while asking for netizens to send them equipment.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow. They follow military textbook. They don't upload the videos to Telegram to show their position. They don't do the human wave attacks. They try to remove the mines before driving the vehicles. They are outsourcing a lot of the decisions to the military textbooks and formal processes, which is an advantage from the view of the tactics, although the habit to outsource decisions can be a problem for strategy and probably goes to the top with creating of indecisive political leaders.

    There are pluses and minuses of the developed countries. We talk a lot about the minuses. Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.

    The modern state follows its rules and becomes impersonal, in a way the rule-following behavior becomes the plan, instead of a method.

    But one of the pluses at least you won't be doing human wave style of attacks in Bakhmut or uploading videos on Telegram asking for netizens to donate drones to your unit in exchange for writing their name on bombs.


    Hamas are amateurs and their fighting methods are only effective
     
    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective. But they have the negative situation - light weapons only, limited ammunition. People with light weapons that can be moved into the tunnels under the border with Egypt, fighting against people with guided missiles.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.

    In the Gaza war in 2014, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War

    In the long term, you could say Hamas has won the 2014 Gaza war, as Hamas becomes stronger after the war, while Israel reduced international support. Israel had meaningless tactical victories, Hamas had meaningful strategic victories.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.

    Replies: @Greasy William, @LondonBob

    Most of the people who I read who cover the war in the Ukraine are laughing at the IDF.

  199. @Greasy William
    @Dmitry


    Some people cannot believe in the Russian social media space, where people live in low-trust countries where the culture is different and government data is not real. Russian/Ukrainian netizens also are comparing to war in Ukraine, where more soldiers die in a single artillery attack.
     
    It's more that antisemites live in a total dream world. Anyone who knows anything about Israel would know that you can't hide the loss of a single soldier.

    Israel is a more boring, organized Western state, which follows textbooks. The army moves slow.
     
    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

    Israel is an example of a modern state without having a strategy. Most Western countries are like this now, without strategy except following their rules.
     
    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is "survival", like it's the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

    Hamas are probably very skilled and effective
     
    Hamas aren't Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren't very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.

    Hamas advantage is the international pressure against Israel, Geneva conventions and the lack of Israel having any long-term strategy.
     
    And all of those things became moot after Oct 7th. Hamas threw away all of their advantages for a short term propaganda win. In Hamas's defense, however, there is no way they could have known that the IDF would fuck up as badly as it did on the 7th, nor could Hamas have predicted that Israel would retaliate. I myself was 100% certain that Israel wouldn't retaliate (and I still believe that was Bibi's initial intended course of action) and I definitely wouldn't have anticipated the US and other Western states backing said retaliation.

    Hamas won the war because it had some kind of strategy, while Israel outsources so many decisions to the rules and formal process, they seemed to avoid a strategy about Gaza.
     
    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They'll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza. The IDF has already started building permanent structures.

    What the Resistance Axis has to hope for is that Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas. The problem is that Israel can't agree to a ceasefire until it gets the hostages back. And even if Hamas does give back the hostages, Bibi still can't agree to a ceasefire because if he does he'll be toppled and go to prison. Bibi's political weakness makes it impossible for him to surrender like he wants to.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    antisemites live in a total dream world

    That is not related to antisemitism. Russia/Ukraine are a low trust society where you cannot believe government data as the numbers are always changed. For example, the last census is the most inaccurate since Stalin census in 1937, with millions of citizens missing.

    Of course, Israeli culture is like a village, even if the government was not accountable, they can’t hide missing soldiers.

    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel? It’s the same discussion I had with Talha last week.

    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is “survival”, like it’s the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

    The Warsaw Ghetto was stage for deportation of Jews, it’s not comparable to the lack of strategies of most of the modern developed/bourgeois democracies, which includes countries like Germany, United Kingdom or France. What is the strategy of France nowadays?

    Israel follows the bourgeois democracies, mainly interested in not stopping the economic growth, increasing the international relations etc.

    From the security view, they were investing in missile defense, instead of destroying the missile capacity of their enemies with an active policy. So, instead they avoid war, by investing in things like missile defense. Because the missile defense unlike war, doesn’t require stopping economic growth, difficult decisions, the evacuation of cities, destruction of the tourism, loss of the immigrants.

    It’s economic costs you see in Israel now, as many cities have been evacuated, hundreds of thousands of reservists removed from the labor, economy goes to recession.

    Hamas aren’t Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren’t very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.

    This is incorrect. Hezbollah lost over 60 soldiers in the last month trying to fire anti-tank weapons in Southern Lebanon, where they are killed by drones. Hamas soldiers are not so incompetent. Hamas is training their soldiers to avoid those kind of defeats and they don’t walk under drones.

    Hamas soldiers also have a nationalist goal to combine with jihadism, which is the Palestinian national objective, while Hezbollah is more purely jihadism and messianism.

    Hamas only has light weapons, which they can carry under the border with Egypt. They have limited ammunition and they need to build their own weapons. Hamas has technological autochany, engineering skills, they build most of their own weapons and also engineer the tunnels.

    But Hezbollah has access to heavy weapons, they are not restricted in the ammunition or weapons. They don’t need to carry them under the border with Egypt. They have the open external supply, they don’t build their own weapons. They are also not enfolded on all their sides by Israel. They are part of the government of a country with millions of people.

    This is Hezbollah is today more like a conventional military with heavy weapons.

    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They’ll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza.

    Strategic victory for Israel would be like Nagorno Karabakh, which the Arabs and international community would not allow, so it’s probably unlikely. Also Israeli officials already said they won’t do this.

    To occupy Gaza while reducing the separation of the populations, could be probably strategic defeat for Israel, possible victory for the Palestinian nationalism.

    The intermediate would be increasing the separation of the Gazans and the Israelis.

    *The war government is only three people, Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz. Gantz already said they won’t remove Gaza or have a “view to the sea”.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Dmitry

    What will the post conflict situation look like? This is by far the most likely future state:

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Gaza will resume local control for civil administration — Water, electricity, sewage, etc. Presumably this will include elections that exclude Iranian Hamas and Palestinian Iranian Jihad [PIJ] from running. However, there may be an interim period under Fatah until elections can be organized.

    Easily abused projects, such as heavy construction will go through a shared body that represents both Israel’s legitimate security concerns and Gaza’s needs. Eliminating diversion of resources to violence should produce better yield on these efforts.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    , @Greasy William
    @Dmitry


    That is not related to antisemitism.
     
    People like LondonBob who get their news from The Duran are motivated by antisemitism. Such people believe the lies that they are fed about how Hamas is currently standing up the IDF.

    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?
     
    Because I'm a Jew

    Gantz already said they won’t remove Gaza or have a “view to the sea”.
     
    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules of engagement. I'm not expecting Israel to return to the pre Oslo situation, that would be impossible and the Israeli public would never stand for it, but rather I expect Gaza to be turned into 2 ghettos that will be ruled by gangs on the US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria. And of course the people of Gaza will be forbidden from working in Israel, will no longer get electricity and water from Israel and will have their territory further encroached on.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  200. @Dmitry
    @Greasy William


    antisemites live in a total dream world
     
    That is not related to antisemitism. Russia/Ukraine are a low trust society where you cannot believe government data as the numbers are always changed. For example, the last census is the most inaccurate since Stalin census in 1937, with millions of citizens missing.

    Of course, Israeli culture is like a village, even if the government was not accountable, they can't hide missing soldiers.


    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

     

    Why "our"? You don't understand a letter of Hebrew and didn't visit Israel? It's the same discussion I had with Talha last week.

    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is “survival”, like it’s the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

     

    The Warsaw Ghetto was stage for deportation of Jews, it's not comparable to the lack of strategies of most of the modern developed/bourgeois democracies, which includes countries like Germany, United Kingdom or France. What is the strategy of France nowadays?

    Israel follows the bourgeois democracies, mainly interested in not stopping the economic growth, increasing the international relations etc.

    From the security view, they were investing in missile defense, instead of destroying the missile capacity of their enemies with an active policy. So, instead they avoid war, by investing in things like missile defense. Because the missile defense unlike war, doesn't require stopping economic growth, difficult decisions, the evacuation of cities, destruction of the tourism, loss of the immigrants.

    It's economic costs you see in Israel now, as many cities have been evacuated, hundreds of thousands of reservists removed from the labor, economy goes to recession.


    Hamas aren’t Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren’t very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.
     
    This is incorrect. Hezbollah lost over 60 soldiers in the last month trying to fire anti-tank weapons in Southern Lebanon, where they are killed by drones. Hamas soldiers are not so incompetent. Hamas is training their soldiers to avoid those kind of defeats and they don't walk under drones.

    Hamas soldiers also have a nationalist goal to combine with jihadism, which is the Palestinian national objective, while Hezbollah is more purely jihadism and messianism.

    Hamas only has light weapons, which they can carry under the border with Egypt. They have limited ammunition and they need to build their own weapons. Hamas has technological autochany, engineering skills, they build most of their own weapons and also engineer the tunnels.

    But Hezbollah has access to heavy weapons, they are not restricted in the ammunition or weapons. They don't need to carry them under the border with Egypt. They have the open external supply, they don't build their own weapons. They are also not enfolded on all their sides by Israel. They are part of the government of a country with millions of people.

    This is Hezbollah is today more like a conventional military with heavy weapons.


    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They’ll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza.
     
    Strategic victory for Israel would be like Nagorno Karabakh, which the Arabs and international community would not allow, so it's probably unlikely. Also Israeli officials already said they won't do this.

    To occupy Gaza while reducing the separation of the populations, could be probably strategic defeat for Israel, possible victory for the Palestinian nationalism.

    The intermediate would be increasing the separation of the Gazans and the Israelis.

    -

    *The war government is only three people, Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz. Gantz already said they won't remove Gaza or have a "view to the sea".

    Replies: @A123, @Greasy William

    What will the post conflict situation look like? This is by far the most likely future state:

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Gaza will resume local control for civil administration — Water, electricity, sewage, etc. Presumably this will include elections that exclude Iranian Hamas and Palestinian Iranian Jihad [PIJ] from running. However, there may be an interim period under Fatah until elections can be organized.

    Easily abused projects, such as heavy construction will go through a shared body that represents both Israel’s legitimate security concerns and Gaza’s needs. Eliminating diversion of resources to violence should produce better yield on these efforts.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Wasn't the same argument made over the Golan Heights?

    Gotta maintain it for security reasons.........oh and we are gonna add some burbs....and farms.

    I'm all for eliminating Hamas but I really don't like this situation and Israel is again going too far in its reprisals.

    It just smells of refugee crisis and President MacGoo seems unable to say the N word to Israel.

    Replies: @A123

  201. @Dmitry
    @Greasy William


    antisemites live in a total dream world
     
    That is not related to antisemitism. Russia/Ukraine are a low trust society where you cannot believe government data as the numbers are always changed. For example, the last census is the most inaccurate since Stalin census in 1937, with millions of citizens missing.

    Of course, Israeli culture is like a village, even if the government was not accountable, they can't hide missing soldiers.


    And allowing our captives to rot in southern Gaza.

     

    Why "our"? You don't understand a letter of Hebrew and didn't visit Israel? It's the same discussion I had with Talha last week.

    The lack of strategy stems from a lack of purpose. The only purpose Israel has is “survival”, like it’s the Warsaw Ghetto or something.

     

    The Warsaw Ghetto was stage for deportation of Jews, it's not comparable to the lack of strategies of most of the modern developed/bourgeois democracies, which includes countries like Germany, United Kingdom or France. What is the strategy of France nowadays?

    Israel follows the bourgeois democracies, mainly interested in not stopping the economic growth, increasing the international relations etc.

    From the security view, they were investing in missile defense, instead of destroying the missile capacity of their enemies with an active policy. So, instead they avoid war, by investing in things like missile defense. Because the missile defense unlike war, doesn't require stopping economic growth, difficult decisions, the evacuation of cities, destruction of the tourism, loss of the immigrants.

    It's economic costs you see in Israel now, as many cities have been evacuated, hundreds of thousands of reservists removed from the labor, economy goes to recession.


    Hamas aren’t Hezbollah. Unlike Hezbollah fighters, Hamas fighters aren’t very well trained and they actually want to get killed. Hezbollah are true light infantry, Hamas are just some suicidal larpers.
     
    This is incorrect. Hezbollah lost over 60 soldiers in the last month trying to fire anti-tank weapons in Southern Lebanon, where they are killed by drones. Hamas soldiers are not so incompetent. Hamas is training their soldiers to avoid those kind of defeats and they don't walk under drones.

    Hamas soldiers also have a nationalist goal to combine with jihadism, which is the Palestinian national objective, while Hezbollah is more purely jihadism and messianism.

    Hamas only has light weapons, which they can carry under the border with Egypt. They have limited ammunition and they need to build their own weapons. Hamas has technological autochany, engineering skills, they build most of their own weapons and also engineer the tunnels.

    But Hezbollah has access to heavy weapons, they are not restricted in the ammunition or weapons. They don't need to carry them under the border with Egypt. They have the open external supply, they don't build their own weapons. They are also not enfolded on all their sides by Israel. They are part of the government of a country with millions of people.

    This is Hezbollah is today more like a conventional military with heavy weapons.


    Israel clearly intends to occupy Gaza permanently. They’ll be mealy mouthed about it, but the IDF will never leave Gaza.
     
    Strategic victory for Israel would be like Nagorno Karabakh, which the Arabs and international community would not allow, so it's probably unlikely. Also Israeli officials already said they won't do this.

    To occupy Gaza while reducing the separation of the populations, could be probably strategic defeat for Israel, possible victory for the Palestinian nationalism.

    The intermediate would be increasing the separation of the Gazans and the Israelis.

    -

    *The war government is only three people, Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz. Gantz already said they won't remove Gaza or have a "view to the sea".

    Replies: @A123, @Greasy William

    That is not related to antisemitism.

    People like LondonBob who get their news from The Duran are motivated by antisemitism. Such people believe the lies that they are fed about how Hamas is currently standing up the IDF.

    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?

    Because I’m a Jew

    Gantz already said they won’t remove Gaza or have a “view to the sea”.

    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules of engagement. I’m not expecting Israel to return to the pre Oslo situation, that would be impossible and the Israeli public would never stand for it, but rather I expect Gaza to be turned into 2 ghettos that will be ruled by gangs on the US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria. And of course the people of Gaza will be forbidden from working in Israel, will no longer get electricity and water from Israel and will have their territory further encroached on.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    Duran Duran? I'm assuming this is not Duran Duran who are "motivated by antisemitism". They are from England, but the singer lived in Israel for a year after school in the 1970s when he was a teenager.

    Their first song is about Tel Aviv. They were a kind of progressive rock music in the beginning.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO34tTZetfU

    The lyrics of the song "Chaffeur" was based on an experience of his youth when women Israeli soldiers drove him around in a tractor on a hot day in the desert. I guess from the lyrics, he was there with a girl he was dating.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUX9pf_wJmg



    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?

     

    Because I’m a Jew
     
    I'm sure even Talha knows a letter of Arabic, as he writes about "our Al Quds". There is some problem of people who try to self-promote themselves talking about opposing football teams they support, without having a relation to these or ever kicking a ball.

    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules

     

    That would probably not be a strategic victory. Before 2005, Israel received constant security issues in relation to Gaza, as well the costs in terms of international relations of the occupation.

    US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria.

     

    The situation inherited in the West Bank would be difficult to describe as a strategic victory.

    Replies: @Greasy William

  202. @sudden death
    @Beckow


    If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target – up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.
     
    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Beckow

    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Neutrality does mean something in the nuclear age.

    It means you are vulnerable to invasion. See: Ukraine.

    Austria at least has natural defenses and doesn’t border Russia.

    Finland is vulnerable to invasion. Russia just has to take the southern tip. The rest of the country can be cut off and frozen into submission. Helsinki is on the water and is vulnerable to Naval attacks. A Russian convoy could pass as if it is headed to St. Petersburg and then open fire.

    I’m surprised that Finland didn’t join NATO sooner. The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago. Finland was an obvious target.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @John Johnson


    The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago.
     
    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven't mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    Replies: @John Johnson

  203. @A123
    @Barbarossa

    My experience with rank & file MAGA folks -- "Losing the Peace" in Iraq drove huge numbers away from GW style militarism. The massive failure in Ukraine has intensified open opposition to idiotic Forever Wars. Establishment GW supporters are now on the DNC side.

    I am not aware of a single MAGA supporter, even second hand, that would opt for putting boots on the ground in Iran. It is a ludicrous non-starter as a "war of choice".

    If Iran intentionally started a war with the U.S. then the MAGA rank & file would "support the troops". However, they would also demand a sensible plan towards victory. Something that is sorely lacking in Kiev aggression.
    ___

    Backing Judeo-Christian Israel against terrorist threats is something of a special case.

    -1- The fact that Islam intentionally targets children is so repugnant and inhumane that a response is necessary and justified. That being said, there is no huge rush of people hoisting blue & white flags.

    -2- SJW🏳️‍🌈Islam also generates support for Israel.

     
    https://media.notthebee.com/articles/64cd6673-889d-443b-b57a-892848d37317.jpg
     

    Things like this create massive sympathy for indigenous Palestinian Jews who are plagued with their own version of Only Black/Muslim Lives Matter.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    I am not aware of a single MAGA supporter, even second hand, that would opt for putting boots on the ground in Iran. It is a ludicrous non-starter as a “war of choice”.

    MAGAs will defend whatever Trump decides. Very similar to Putin defenders.

    Look at how they defend his long list of pending felonies.

    I still have not met a single MAGA supporter that has actually read about the classified documents. They’ve only heard about it on Fox and assume it is all part of a GET TRUMP conspiracy. Trump says he is innocent so that is enough.

    He could declare war with Iran and they would cheer.

    If Iran intentionally started a war with the U.S. then the MAGA rank & file would “support the troops”. However, they would also demand a sensible plan towards victory.

    That would happen and actually shows the madness of the MAGA cult. Wanting a path to victory instead of asking why the war exists.

    It is looking like Trump won’t escape a charge on his Fraud U case. The classified documents case is much worse. He is on tape trying to cover it up.

  204. @A123
    @Dmitry

    What will the post conflict situation look like? This is by far the most likely future state:

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Gaza will resume local control for civil administration — Water, electricity, sewage, etc. Presumably this will include elections that exclude Iranian Hamas and Palestinian Iranian Jihad [PIJ] from running. However, there may be an interim period under Fatah until elections can be organized.

    Easily abused projects, such as heavy construction will go through a shared body that represents both Israel’s legitimate security concerns and Gaza’s needs. Eliminating diversion of resources to violence should produce better yield on these efforts.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Wasn’t the same argument made over the Golan Heights?

    Gotta maintain it for security reasons………oh and we are gonna add some burbs….and farms.

    I’m all for eliminating Hamas but I really don’t like this situation and Israel is again going too far in its reprisals.

    It just smells of refugee crisis and President MacGoo seems unable to say the N word to Israel.

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson



    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

     

    Wasn’t the same argument made over the Golan Heights?
     
    *NO*

    • Islam had a choice to negotiate.
    • Islam refused to negotiate.
    • Islam lost the land.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

  205. @John Johnson
    @A123

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Wasn't the same argument made over the Golan Heights?

    Gotta maintain it for security reasons.........oh and we are gonna add some burbs....and farms.

    I'm all for eliminating Hamas but I really don't like this situation and Israel is again going too far in its reprisals.

    It just smells of refugee crisis and President MacGoo seems unable to say the N word to Israel.

    Replies: @A123

    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

    Wasn’t the same argument made over the Golan Heights?

    *NO*

    • Islam had a choice to negotiate.
    • Islam refused to negotiate.
    • Islam lost the land.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    PEACE 😇

    • Troll: silviosilver
    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    NO

    Islam had a choice to negotiate.

    Islam is a religion and they are divided on the subject of Israel.

    There isn't a single representative of Islam that can negotiate.

    Your statement doesn't make any sense.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    Ukraine is now smaller because they were being stupid and violent?

    You've suggested they surrender which would make them non-existent.

    Are you still gunning for Trump or did you finally give that up?

    Replies: @A123

  206. @Dmitry
    @Mikel


    US the MSM drive to support Israel unconditionally is much stronger than in Western Europe
     
    In many of the Western Europe countries, the media has anti-Israel views. If you look in Republic of Ireland or United Kingdom.

    In Republic of Ireland, the main view is pro-Palestine and this is also in the media. It's similar for the Scandinavian societies.


    People around me who didn’t express much interest in the Ukraine war have put up US-Israel flag
     
    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.

    There is an overlap of the "pro-Western bloc" views which are encouraged in the Mormon culture and Cold War "Manichaeists'" perception of the external policy, which supports Ukraine.

    If you remember early 2022, excluding the populist Tucker Carlson side, the Republican Party was mainly supporting Ukraine from Cold War style of policy.

    It seems like this year, the Republican positions are becoming less pro-Ukraine, as the politicians are seeing the popularity of the more isolationist positions and accepting Trump will be the presidential candidate.

    But the geopolitics is returning more to blocs and a new Cold War. So, the external policy of even Trump might still be to support Ukraine, even if it is relatively more unpopular with the Republican voters.

    -

    By the way, there is an interesting documentary in 1987 about the war in Nicaragua. Reagan begins to support the Contras even without public support. But then Congress begins to talk about ending the funding for the Contras, then Reagan begins the PR policy for pro-Contras public views.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wUfevC9LHs.

    Replies: @Mikel

    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.

    I don’t remember that. Are you not confusing Ukraine with Afghanistan?

    In any case, it doesn’t have anything to do with my comment about the obvious connection between Israel (where the “Nephites” and “Lamanites” allegedly came from) and the Mormon religion. A year ago most Utahns (like most Americans) strongly supported Ukraine and today I see that some religious Mormons are putting up US-Israel flags on their front yards, which is more than they did about Ukraine. I can’t say for sure but I know them and it’s quite likely a local ward initiative. I wouldn’t be surprised if the guidelines come from higher up too.

    Both things can perfectly be true at the same time, can they not? In the same way that Israel may be justified in responding militarily to the October 7th attacks but is not justified in ignoring the Geneva Convention and killing thousands of innocent people. It’s not complicated really.

    PS- As a matter of fact, Israel could have perfectly chosen to respond to the attacks in a strictly legal way, by trying to bring the masterminds and perpetrators to justice, like so many civilized countries have done with their own terrorist groups. It’s difficult, time-consuming and not too rewarding for those seeking instant retribution but it often works quite well in the long term.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mikel


    I don’t remember that. Are you not confusing Ukraine
     
    I guess I misremember, you were talking about the Mormon soldier from Idaho, not a Utah Mormon.
    https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/14/23404548/latter-day-saint-fighting-ukraine-dies-dane-partridge-russia-war-rexburg-idaho

    Mormons are putting up US-Israel flags on their front yards, which is more than they did about Ukraine. I can’t say for sure but I know them and it’s quite likely a local ward initiative. I wouldn’t be surprised if the guidelines come from higher up too.
     
    It seems some Mormons are Zionists.
    https://jewishjournal.com/judaism/132436/why-mormons-cant-be-anti-zionists/

    Also had Mormons by far the highest positive views towards the American Jews from any of the religions (although not the other direction), which they probably associate to Israel or view as a proxy.

    https://i.imgur.com/cCY2Gdo.jpg

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/


    -

    But also Mormons' culture is patriotic in the Reagan sense of "pro-Western", which would support Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  207. @ShortOnTime
    @AP

    I'll reply from the previous thread on key points and cutting out blockquotes, partly to save space. Let's try keep it chronological.

    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical. It's perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom just before its fall) or Catalan separatism against Spain. Perhaps even Canada vs USA since such hypothetical analogies (especially geopolitical alignment and foreign great power military alliances) about USA invading Canada devolving into trench war with Canadians then harping on about "ancient Canadian nationhood" sounding completely ridiculous and citing things like the War of 1812 (Canadian genesis only began in 19th century and Canadian distinction in WW1 participation along with French Quebec are only remarkable things about Canada historically, honestly). The 4chan analogy of a botched American invasion of Mexico to the current Ukraine War is apples and oranges comparison though, since Russia is not USA and Ukraine isn't Mexico. Analogies can only be taken so far.

    Otherwise, the Rus fragmentation (connected decline of Piast Poland too) explains why Eastern Europe was easy prey for Mongols. Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more "Asian Muscovite savages" than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kiev_(1240)

    As for Pagan Lithuania, it's actually very impressive that it punched above its own weight in its era (14th century especially). Repelling multiple invasions and raids from the Teutonic Knights, also exploiting Mongol and Tatar decline to take over Rus lands. Pagan Lithuania was the last Pagan kingdom in Europe until the 15th century (Paganism presumably persisted till 16th century).

    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight. Guaranteed lots of strife. Likely would've been better if Lithuania remained Pagan, but friction with Orthodox and especially Catholics was too much. Even among Lithuanians, there was a significant minority of Orthodox nobles and there were some civil wars contesting the union and Jogaila's acquiescence to it (some of it was dynastic too admittedly, ie one prince wanted to rule instead of the incumbent without necessarily changing the union). Especially since Poland became the senior partner in the long term. Just one of many below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_Civil_War_(1389%E2%80%931392)

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible. Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians and Casimir III inviting Jews to jointly take part in exploiting subject populations, especially economically. Jesuit invitation too. The only good thing about the PLC was its confrontations with the Ottomans but that's because the Ottomans chose to try expanding north from Bessarabia/Moldova and Ottoman conquest of Vienna would've been unacceptable for PLC (southern Ottoman border expanded).

    The anti-Jewish "pogroms" or really, riots, though pose a major historical riddle. If everyone in Ukraine was always Ukrainian with Russians never being a significant part of Ukraine, then that means Ukraine has an ugly track record of "anti-Semitism" as I saw Norman Finklestein discuss in a video. If the "pogroms" in Ukraine are Russia's fault, the problem with that is that it means Ukraine is basically legitimately Russian, no matter how "anti-Semitic" one thinks Russians are. Perhaps on the Unz Review it's easier to say that the "pogroms" have always been exaggerated, especially the ones in the Russian Empire in the few decades before WW1. Really they were just a bunch of street clashes between Jews vs Russians/Ukrainians since Jews had a disproportionate part in fomenting revolutionary unrest against the Tsardom and non-Jews in the Russian Empire had many legitimate grievances against Jews. The total of Jewish "victims" was only anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand overall. Pogroms weren't directed by the Russian state as historical evidence in hindsight makes clear. The ones under Bogdan Khmelnitsky since 1648 were significantly larger in scope though (possibly a few 10s of 1000s) since it was a rebellion that morphed into an all out war and the pent up grievances against Jewish moneychangers and theft of Orthodox Church land was much larger and more repressed (Khmelnitsky rebelled over a vicious personal dispute with a Polish noble and the Polish Kings ineffective mediation). There was some chaos in WW1 and the Russian Civil War too. Anyway, the Jewish aspect of this is perhaps the most interesting of all.

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren't Rus successor states), Polish nobles were tolerated until 19th century Polish rebellions. The Romanovs had notable success in undoing Uniatism in Galicia, Western Ukraine and Belarus. I even took the time to read some of Adam Zamoyski's works (who's devotedly pro-PLC), and even he acknowledged in his book Poland: A History, that most of the rebellions against Russia in Lithuania were actually just Polish nobles (until 1860's iirc, sort of), with Lithuanian peasants having no interest in taking part. Same for Belarus and Ukraine parts with Polish nobles.

    In the 19th century it's true proto-Ukrainians took some more hold. Really any record of Ukrainians as anything more than regionally distinct "Ruthenians"/''Little Rus'' from Russians before 18th century is weak. Although even Putin in his text on the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians acknowledges things like the Elms Ukaz of 1876.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion and one may dare say, apostasy, can be very powerful.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia with Poland strong-arming Ukrainians to cede Galicia which Ukrainian Rada acceded to since they thought that concession and prospective Polish help against Bolsheviks was worth it. Pretty obvious Poland picked a fight with Bolsheviks and even Whites when it intervened in Ukraine then. Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it's essentially true since before him there were Ukrainian servants of Germany during Germany's occupation of Ukraine in 1918. Quite sad to think that Ukraine was not only occupied by Germany which lost WW1, but then Poland which only became independent in November 1918 domineered over Ukraine, for the Bolsheviks to then take over Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria's attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.

    The big "problem" is that Russian nationalist/"imperial" history takes are mostly true, although some Ukrainian/Ruthenian regional particularism is well rooted. We're just scratching the surface of this history and it can be discussed endlessly. But that's perhaps more than enough about history.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed. To a degree, Serbia and Ukraine are inverse tragedies since Western nations can't suffer Serbia's ties to Russia while Russians can't suffer Ukraine's ties to the West.

    With refugees and returnees, it obviously goes without stating it that the longer the current Ukraine War lasts, the worse the reconstruction and return of emigrants will be. Ukraine obviously isn't exactly the same as Iraq, Libya, Syria or Serbia/Yugoslavia (Ukraine War seems to have less "ethnic cleansing" in particular, so far at least). Still, nothing suggests Ukraine will have some sort of good recovery as almost 10 million fled in total is terrible, especially a few million Russians to Russia, especially about return of displaced persons. Even economic recovery will have the scandal over seized Russian assets overshadowing it. Not to mention downturns in world economy. Overall, it's a really sad picture for Ukraine devotees.

    Replies: @sudden death, @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)

    It was a coalition of princes led by prince of Suzdal.

    Fighting these proto-Russians were princes of Kiev, Galicia and Volhynia.

    The Suzdalian prince Andrei won, sacked Kiev, brutalized its inhabitants, and placed a puppet on the throne. The puppet and the Suzdalians were disliked by the people of Kiev, who overthrew him.

    Andrei attempted to restore his rule over Kiev but was defeated by a coalition of mostly proto-Ukrainians (Kievans, Volhynians, Galicians).

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical

    It would be, if anyone made this the basis of anything.

    You like to cherry-pick facts and to make strawmen.

    History moved on. The Ukrainian lands became part of the Rzeczpospolita, a loyal and integral part. The Rus princes of this land continued to fight the Suzdalians (Muscovites) in the 15th and 16th and early 17th centuries. The Volhynian Chronicle described these as wars of Rus versus Muscovites. This Chronicle also classified Muscovites alongside Moldovans as people who are Orthodox but not Rus. In the Battle of Orsha, the combined forces of Poland and Lithuania were led by a Rus prince from Volhynia, Konstanty Ostrogski as they crushed the Muscovite army.

    The war between Rzeczposolita and Muscovy of 1605-1617 (where Moscow was seized) was initiated not by Poles but was a project by Rus princes, the Orthodox Rus Michał Wiśniowiecki and the Sapieha brothers, Rus converts to Catholicism (funny how the Russian and Ukrainian nationalist fairtytales speak of Polish “occupation of Rus lands, when the richest magnates in Poland were not Poles but Rus princes and when these Rus princes, not Poles, directed Eastern policies and war).

    During this war, in 1618 Zaporizhians under Sahaidachny devastated the lands around Moscow.

    Sahaidachny would later fight alongside the Poles and stop the Turks at the massive Battle of Khotyn.

    It’s perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom

    Ukraine was separate from Suzdalia from around 1150 (when Rus fragmented) until 1650 and was then autonomous with its own laws and government until 1760. After that the western 10% was part of Austria while the other 90% was part of Russia, until 1917 when autonomy and brief independence were followed by a separate SSR and full independence in 1991.

    So the period of full integration lasted only 160 years, never included 10% of the country, and ended over 100 years ago.

    Burgundy – lol.

    The Dutch and the Deutsch might be more analogous. Or perhaps the Swedes and the Danes (though the Swedish and Danish languages are closer to each other than Ukrainian is to Russian).

    Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more “Asian Muscovite savages” than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).

    It was not only about time spent under Mongol overlordship. Russia spent twice as long as Ukraine under the rule of the Mongols, but Ukraine was was further, more peripheral, and less influenced by the Mongols during the occupation. The Russian elites intermarried with the Mongols – the ones in Ukraine did not. Russian historian Vernadsky notes that 15%of Russian noble families had Tatar/Mongol origins. Theseincliude Veliaminov-Zernov, Godunov, Arseniev, Bakhmetev, Bulgakov (descendants of Bulgak) and Chaadaev (descendants of Genghis Khan’s son Chagatai Khan).

    Moreover, the process by which the Moscow princes came to power was one of selection for obedience to the Mongol overlords. The rebellious ones (such as the Tver princes) were crushed, the loyal ones closest to the Mongols granted more power. And so this is the ethnogenesis of the Russian people and culture – the Rus of Suzdalia under centuries of Mongol rule.

    And the ethnogenesis of the Ukrainian people were the Rus of Kiev, Volhynia and Galicia as part of Poland and/or Lithuania for centuries.

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible.

    According to supporters of Muscovy/Russia, a state that massacred the Novgorodians out of existence, spread serfdom under German masters, and ultimately became the base for Bolshevism that murdered millions.

    Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians

    Is the reverse better?

    You as usual play games with time. In the 18th century, as a backlash to the treason of Khmelnytsky and the loss of much of the Orthodox population, the rump PLC was repressive towards the Orthodox.

    But Orthodoxy flourished during the 17th century PLC. Kiev became an intellectual center of the Orthodox world.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_University_of_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy#Foundation_of_the_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren’t Rus successor states)

    Poland-Lithuania were the successors of Rus states in what is now Ukraine and Belarus, Russia of Suzdal.

    The last ruler of Kiev before the Mongols was the King of Galicia (who accepted a crown from the Pope) and his descendant married into the Polish royal family. When the family died out the throne passed to Poland. The local Rus princes of Ukraine were magnates of the PLC. One of them even got the Polish throne.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion

    Don’t confuse Muscovite anti-Westernism with Rus. The Great Schism wasn’t popular in Kiev, Daniel of Galicia took a crown from the Pope, the attempted Union of Florence (to unite Catholic and Orthodox in 1431) was popular in Kiev, and the Union of Brest was the work of local bishops.

    The original Rus tradition maintained by people in Ukraine was more open to the West than the later Suzdalian and Muscovite stance.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia

    Yes, both had claims over Galicia and fought over it. But in central Ukraine the Poles and Ukrainians were friendly, because Poland didn’t claim those lands.

    Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it’s essentially true

    He got a better deal from Poland than anyone got from either Reds or Whites.

    Do you think that any weaker ally is a “lackey?” Were all the Western Euro leaders “lackeys” of the USA after World War II?

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre.

    I wouldn’t call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.

    Poor Nicholas II, a decent man, allowed his country to go to war for the sake of this regicide. As a result he himself was also murdered, and Russia which went to war for the sake of the evil regicidal Serb regime ended up losing 10s of millions of people in the following decades, as a consequence of that fateful and terrible decision to support Serbia. The Austrian, Hapsburgs, Galicians got off much more lightly in the 20th century than did the Serbs and Russians (and Central/Eastern Ukrainians).

    So Serbia’s and Russia’s actions were far worse than Austria’s.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed.

    Being Russia’s neighbor is a nasty place to be.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack, Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    I wouldn’t call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.
     
    I have already responded to you here:

    AP compares the Franz Ferdinand assassination to 9/11, but WWI would be comparable to a hypothetical subsequent Afghan War that results in *millions* of US soldiers getting killed in Afghanistan, such as if a hypothetical ultra-technologically-advanced China decides to militarily intervene in Afghanistan in this scenario in order to help the Taliban and is willing to fight the US to the very last man. The crucial question would then be whether *millions* (as opposed to “mere” *thousands*) of US deaths to avenge 9/11 would actually be worth it. And of course 9/11 was much worse than the Sarajevo murders, since the former involved 3,000 civilians deaths while the latter only involved two deaths, albeit two deaths of a very high status (so, maybe comparable to 10 or 20 normal civilian deaths, which is still over 100 times less bad than 9/11 was).
     
    Even if one grants that Austria-Hungary's grievance against Serbia was perfectly legitimate, the subsequent sacrifices that Austria-Hungary endured as a result of going to war to punish Serbia, *even had Austria-Hungary and the Central Powers actually managed to win World War I*, was way too high to actually make this war worth it.

    Sparking a World War that resulted in the deaths of ten million men, many of whom died involuntarily (conscription), in order to avenge the death of a royal and a noble seems excessive, no? You previously rightly criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, arguing that Russia sparked a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people in order to avenge a dozen people or less getting killed in the Donbass every year. Well, one could also make this exact same grievance towards Austria-Hungary.

    If Austria-Hungary wanted to overthrow the Serbian regime, 1904-1905 was the perfect time to do it, while Russia was still busy fighting Japan and thus could still not realistically militarily intervene to protect Serbia, unlike in 1914, when Russia was stronger.

    Replies: @AP

  208. @ShortOnTime
    @AP

    I'll reply from the previous thread on key points and cutting out blockquotes, partly to save space. Let's try keep it chronological.

    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical. It's perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom just before its fall) or Catalan separatism against Spain. Perhaps even Canada vs USA since such hypothetical analogies (especially geopolitical alignment and foreign great power military alliances) about USA invading Canada devolving into trench war with Canadians then harping on about "ancient Canadian nationhood" sounding completely ridiculous and citing things like the War of 1812 (Canadian genesis only began in 19th century and Canadian distinction in WW1 participation along with French Quebec are only remarkable things about Canada historically, honestly). The 4chan analogy of a botched American invasion of Mexico to the current Ukraine War is apples and oranges comparison though, since Russia is not USA and Ukraine isn't Mexico. Analogies can only be taken so far.

    Otherwise, the Rus fragmentation (connected decline of Piast Poland too) explains why Eastern Europe was easy prey for Mongols. Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more "Asian Muscovite savages" than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Kiev_(1240)

    As for Pagan Lithuania, it's actually very impressive that it punched above its own weight in its era (14th century especially). Repelling multiple invasions and raids from the Teutonic Knights, also exploiting Mongol and Tatar decline to take over Rus lands. Pagan Lithuania was the last Pagan kingdom in Europe until the 15th century (Paganism presumably persisted till 16th century).

    The union with Poland was a catastrophe in hindsight. Guaranteed lots of strife. Likely would've been better if Lithuania remained Pagan, but friction with Orthodox and especially Catholics was too much. Even among Lithuanians, there was a significant minority of Orthodox nobles and there were some civil wars contesting the union and Jogaila's acquiescence to it (some of it was dynastic too admittedly, ie one prince wanted to rule instead of the incumbent without necessarily changing the union). Especially since Poland became the senior partner in the long term. Just one of many below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_Civil_War_(1389%E2%80%931392)

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible. Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians and Casimir III inviting Jews to jointly take part in exploiting subject populations, especially economically. Jesuit invitation too. The only good thing about the PLC was its confrontations with the Ottomans but that's because the Ottomans chose to try expanding north from Bessarabia/Moldova and Ottoman conquest of Vienna would've been unacceptable for PLC (southern Ottoman border expanded).

    The anti-Jewish "pogroms" or really, riots, though pose a major historical riddle. If everyone in Ukraine was always Ukrainian with Russians never being a significant part of Ukraine, then that means Ukraine has an ugly track record of "anti-Semitism" as I saw Norman Finklestein discuss in a video. If the "pogroms" in Ukraine are Russia's fault, the problem with that is that it means Ukraine is basically legitimately Russian, no matter how "anti-Semitic" one thinks Russians are. Perhaps on the Unz Review it's easier to say that the "pogroms" have always been exaggerated, especially the ones in the Russian Empire in the few decades before WW1. Really they were just a bunch of street clashes between Jews vs Russians/Ukrainians since Jews had a disproportionate part in fomenting revolutionary unrest against the Tsardom and non-Jews in the Russian Empire had many legitimate grievances against Jews. The total of Jewish "victims" was only anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand overall. Pogroms weren't directed by the Russian state as historical evidence in hindsight makes clear. The ones under Bogdan Khmelnitsky since 1648 were significantly larger in scope though (possibly a few 10s of 1000s) since it was a rebellion that morphed into an all out war and the pent up grievances against Jewish moneychangers and theft of Orthodox Church land was much larger and more repressed (Khmelnitsky rebelled over a vicious personal dispute with a Polish noble and the Polish Kings ineffective mediation). There was some chaos in WW1 and the Russian Civil War too. Anyway, the Jewish aspect of this is perhaps the most interesting of all.

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren't Rus successor states), Polish nobles were tolerated until 19th century Polish rebellions. The Romanovs had notable success in undoing Uniatism in Galicia, Western Ukraine and Belarus. I even took the time to read some of Adam Zamoyski's works (who's devotedly pro-PLC), and even he acknowledged in his book Poland: A History, that most of the rebellions against Russia in Lithuania were actually just Polish nobles (until 1860's iirc, sort of), with Lithuanian peasants having no interest in taking part. Same for Belarus and Ukraine parts with Polish nobles.

    In the 19th century it's true proto-Ukrainians took some more hold. Really any record of Ukrainians as anything more than regionally distinct "Ruthenians"/''Little Rus'' from Russians before 18th century is weak. Although even Putin in his text on the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians acknowledges things like the Elms Ukaz of 1876.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion and one may dare say, apostasy, can be very powerful.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia with Poland strong-arming Ukrainians to cede Galicia which Ukrainian Rada acceded to since they thought that concession and prospective Polish help against Bolsheviks was worth it. Pretty obvious Poland picked a fight with Bolsheviks and even Whites when it intervened in Ukraine then. Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it's essentially true since before him there were Ukrainian servants of Germany during Germany's occupation of Ukraine in 1918. Quite sad to think that Ukraine was not only occupied by Germany which lost WW1, but then Poland which only became independent in November 1918 domineered over Ukraine, for the Bolsheviks to then take over Ukraine.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria's attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.

    The big "problem" is that Russian nationalist/"imperial" history takes are mostly true, although some Ukrainian/Ruthenian regional particularism is well rooted. We're just scratching the surface of this history and it can be discussed endlessly. But that's perhaps more than enough about history.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed. To a degree, Serbia and Ukraine are inverse tragedies since Western nations can't suffer Serbia's ties to Russia while Russians can't suffer Ukraine's ties to the West.

    With refugees and returnees, it obviously goes without stating it that the longer the current Ukraine War lasts, the worse the reconstruction and return of emigrants will be. Ukraine obviously isn't exactly the same as Iraq, Libya, Syria or Serbia/Yugoslavia (Ukraine War seems to have less "ethnic cleansing" in particular, so far at least). Still, nothing suggests Ukraine will have some sort of good recovery as almost 10 million fled in total is terrible, especially a few million Russians to Russia, especially about return of displaced persons. Even economic recovery will have the scandal over seized Russian assets overshadowing it. Not to mention downturns in world economy. Overall, it's a really sad picture for Ukraine devotees.

    Replies: @sudden death, @AP, @Mr. XYZ

    Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre. Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia in July 1914 is one of the single worst decisions ever made in European history.

    AP compares the Franz Ferdinand assassination to 9/11, but WWI would be comparable to a hypothetical subsequent Afghan War that results in *millions* of US soldiers getting killed in Afghanistan, such as if a hypothetical ultra-technologically-advanced China decides to militarily intervene in Afghanistan in this scenario in order to help the Taliban and is willing to fight the US to the very last man. The crucial question would then be whether *millions* (as opposed to “mere” *thousands*) of US deaths to avenge 9/11 would actually be worth it. And of course 9/11 was much worse than the Sarajevo murders, since the former involved 3,000 civilians deaths while the latter only involved two deaths, albeit two deaths of a very high status (so, maybe comparable to 10 or 20 normal civilian deaths, which is still over 100 times less bad than 9/11 was).

  209. @AP
    @ShortOnTime


    Your reference to a Suzdal prince sacking Kiev is a bit of a, well so what? Turns out the princes of Chernigov and Smolensk took part too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Kiev_(1169)
     
    It was a coalition of princes led by prince of Suzdal.

    Fighting these proto-Russians were princes of Kiev, Galicia and Volhynia.

    The Suzdalian prince Andrei won, sacked Kiev, brutalized its inhabitants, and placed a puppet on the throne. The puppet and the Suzdalians were disliked by the people of Kiev, who overthrew him.

    Andrei attempted to restore his rule over Kiev but was defeated by a coalition of mostly proto-Ukrainians (Kievans, Volhynians, Galicians).

    The Rus realm fragmented into civil war for most of the 12th century. This was typical for most Medieval European realms like England, France, Holy Roman Empire, Italy and etc. Making this the basis for some kind of ancient Russian-Ukrainian schism is nonsensical
     
    It would be, if anyone made this the basis of anything.

    You like to cherry-pick facts and to make strawmen.

    History moved on. The Ukrainian lands became part of the Rzeczpospolita, a loyal and integral part. The Rus princes of this land continued to fight the Suzdalians (Muscovites) in the 15th and 16th and early 17th centuries. The Volhynian Chronicle described these as wars of Rus versus Muscovites. This Chronicle also classified Muscovites alongside Moldovans as people who are Orthodox but not Rus. In the Battle of Orsha, the combined forces of Poland and Lithuania were led by a Rus prince from Volhynia, Konstanty Ostrogski as they crushed the Muscovite army.

    The war between Rzeczposolita and Muscovy of 1605-1617 (where Moscow was seized) was initiated not by Poles but was a project by Rus princes, the Orthodox Rus Michał Wiśniowiecki and the Sapieha brothers, Rus converts to Catholicism (funny how the Russian and Ukrainian nationalist fairtytales speak of Polish "occupation of Rus lands, when the richest magnates in Poland were not Poles but Rus princes and when these Rus princes, not Poles, directed Eastern policies and war).

    During this war, in 1618 Zaporizhians under Sahaidachny devastated the lands around Moscow.

    Sahaidachny would later fight alongside the Poles and stop the Turks at the massive Battle of Khotyn.

    It’s perhaps similar to some kind of neo-Burgundian nationalism against France (at least Burgundy was a tribe and then Kingdom clearly distinct from France at different points in time, migrations at fall of Western Roman Empire and again at 15th century peak of Burgundian Kingdom
     
    Ukraine was separate from Suzdalia from around 1150 (when Rus fragmented) until 1650 and was then autonomous with its own laws and government until 1760. After that the western 10% was part of Austria while the other 90% was part of Russia, until 1917 when autonomy and brief independence were followed by a separate SSR and full independence in 1991.

    So the period of full integration lasted only 160 years, never included 10% of the country, and ended over 100 years ago.

    Burgundy - lol.

    The Dutch and the Deutsch might be more analogous. Or perhaps the Swedes and the Danes (though the Swedish and Danish languages are closer to each other than Ukrainian is to Russian).

    Also the whole notion of Russians somehow being more “Asian Muscovite savages” than Ukrainians is nonsense since Ukraine was ruled by Mongols and Tatars for at least several decades and Russia for maybe about 50 or 100 years longer (depends how one counts it).
     
    It was not only about time spent under Mongol overlordship. Russia spent twice as long as Ukraine under the rule of the Mongols, but Ukraine was was further, more peripheral, and less influenced by the Mongols during the occupation. The Russian elites intermarried with the Mongols - the ones in Ukraine did not. Russian historian Vernadsky notes that 15%of Russian noble families had Tatar/Mongol origins. Theseincliude Veliaminov-Zernov, Godunov, Arseniev, Bakhmetev, Bulgakov (descendants of Bulgak) and Chaadaev (descendants of Genghis Khan's son Chagatai Khan).

    Moreover, the process by which the Moscow princes came to power was one of selection for obedience to the Mongol overlords. The rebellious ones (such as the Tver princes) were crushed, the loyal ones closest to the Mongols granted more power. And so this is the ethnogenesis of the Russian people and culture - the Rus of Suzdalia under centuries of Mongol rule.

    And the ethnogenesis of the Ukrainian people were the Rus of Kiev, Volhynia and Galicia as part of Poland and/or Lithuania for centuries.

    Almost everything about the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (PLC) is terrible.
     
    According to supporters of Muscovy/Russia, a state that massacred the Novgorodians out of existence, spread serfdom under German masters, and ultimately became the base for Bolshevism that murdered millions.

    Catholic oppression of Orthodox Christians
     
    Is the reverse better?

    You as usual play games with time. In the 18th century, as a backlash to the treason of Khmelnytsky and the loss of much of the Orthodox population, the rump PLC was repressive towards the Orthodox.

    But Orthodoxy flourished during the 17th century PLC. Kiev became an intellectual center of the Orthodox world.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_University_of_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy#Foundation_of_the_Kyiv-Mohyla_Academy

    When Russia retook most of Ukraine and Belarus (unlike Russia, Poland-Lithuania weren’t Rus successor states)
     
    Poland-Lithuania were the successors of Rus states in what is now Ukraine and Belarus, Russia of Suzdal.

    The last ruler of Kiev before the Mongols was the King of Galicia (who accepted a crown from the Pope) and his descendant married into the Polish royal family. When the family died out the throne passed to Poland. The local Rus princes of Ukraine were magnates of the PLC. One of them even got the Polish throne.

    As for Galicia and WW1, as your own personal example illustrates, the mental and psychological complexes originating from ancestral legacies of religious conversion
     
    Don't confuse Muscovite anti-Westernism with Rus. The Great Schism wasn't popular in Kiev, Daniel of Galicia took a crown from the Pope, the attempted Union of Florence (to unite Catholic and Orthodox in 1431) was popular in Kiev, and the Union of Brest was the work of local bishops.

    The original Rus tradition maintained by people in Ukraine was more open to the West than the later Suzdalian and Muscovite stance.

    Regarding Ukraine and the Russian Civil War, reality is Poles and Ukrainians clashed over Galicia
     
    Yes, both had claims over Galicia and fought over it. But in central Ukraine the Poles and Ukrainians were friendly, because Poland didn't claim those lands.

    Calling Petlyura a Polish lackey may be harsh, but it’s essentially true
     
    He got a better deal from Poland than anyone got from either Reds or Whites.

    Do you think that any weaker ally is a "lackey?" Were all the Western Euro leaders "lackeys" of the USA after World War II?

    As for Serbs, your resentment over Austria-Hungary losing WW1 is still palpable (and part of your comment history). Your enthusiasm for Austria’s attack of Serbia is also bizarre.
     
    I wouldn't call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.

    Poor Nicholas II, a decent man, allowed his country to go to war for the sake of this regicide. As a result he himself was also murdered, and Russia which went to war for the sake of the evil regicidal Serb regime ended up losing 10s of millions of people in the following decades, as a consequence of that fateful and terrible decision to support Serbia. The Austrian, Hapsburgs, Galicians got off much more lightly in the 20th century than did the Serbs and Russians (and Central/Eastern Ukrainians).

    So Serbia's and Russia's actions were far worse than Austria's.

    Otherwise, since 2014 it looks like Serbia is actually in better shape than Ukraine as unbelievable as that may have seemed.
     
    Being Russia's neighbor is a nasty place to be.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    I wouldn’t call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.

    I have already responded to you here:

    AP compares the Franz Ferdinand assassination to 9/11, but WWI would be comparable to a hypothetical subsequent Afghan War that results in *millions* of US soldiers getting killed in Afghanistan, such as if a hypothetical ultra-technologically-advanced China decides to militarily intervene in Afghanistan in this scenario in order to help the Taliban and is willing to fight the US to the very last man. The crucial question would then be whether *millions* (as opposed to “mere” *thousands*) of US deaths to avenge 9/11 would actually be worth it. And of course 9/11 was much worse than the Sarajevo murders, since the former involved 3,000 civilians deaths while the latter only involved two deaths, albeit two deaths of a very high status (so, maybe comparable to 10 or 20 normal civilian deaths, which is still over 100 times less bad than 9/11 was).

    Even if one grants that Austria-Hungary’s grievance against Serbia was perfectly legitimate, the subsequent sacrifices that Austria-Hungary endured as a result of going to war to punish Serbia, *even had Austria-Hungary and the Central Powers actually managed to win World War I*, was way too high to actually make this war worth it.

    Sparking a World War that resulted in the deaths of ten million men, many of whom died involuntarily (conscription), in order to avenge the death of a royal and a noble seems excessive, no? You previously rightly criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, arguing that Russia sparked a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people in order to avenge a dozen people or less getting killed in the Donbass every year. Well, one could also make this exact same grievance towards Austria-Hungary.

    If Austria-Hungary wanted to overthrow the Serbian regime, 1904-1905 was the perfect time to do it, while Russia was still busy fighting Japan and thus could still not realistically militarily intervene to protect Serbia, unlike in 1914, when Russia was stronger.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Sure, that war wasn't worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil, but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @silviosilver

  210. @John Johnson
    @sudden death

    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Neutrality does mean something in the nuclear age.

    It means you are vulnerable to invasion. See: Ukraine.

    Austria at least has natural defenses and doesn't border Russia.

    Finland is vulnerable to invasion. Russia just has to take the southern tip. The rest of the country can be cut off and frozen into submission. Helsinki is on the water and is vulnerable to Naval attacks. A Russian convoy could pass as if it is headed to St. Petersburg and then open fire.

    I'm surprised that Finland didn't join NATO sooner. The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago. Finland was an obvious target.

    Replies: @Mikel

    The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago.

    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven’t mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @Mikel

    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven’t mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    They've invaded Transnistria, Georgia and Ukraine.

    They fought two bloody wars using unscrupulous tactics to keep in Chechnya.

    They fought Syrian rebels and used nerve agents to prop up Doctor Atheist who is hated by his own people.

    Putin is on record stating that it's a shame that the USSR dissolved.

    He is also on record stating that the great Tsars are conquerors and "Historic Russia" contains Ukraine.

    Leaked plans show that he expected Kiev to collapse within two weeks and then they would continue on to Moldova.

    Over a dozen people close to him have fallen out of windows or drowned since the invasion.

    You can look at all of this and believe it would be outside of his moral character to invade Finland?

    Replies: @Mikel

  211. @LondonBob
    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    Replies: @John Johnson, @AP

    Relentless Russian advances around Avdeevka, despite the Ukrainian reserves rushed there. Things are beginning to come apart.

    Reminder that you wrote in November 2022:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-202/#comment-5673059

    So the rest of the Ukrainian electrical grid has now been taken out, surely a big Russian offensive coming shortly. The nightmare scenario has now unfolded for Europe, and the West. Plenty of chances to strike a deal, now the Russians aren’t interested, wave of refugees, economic collapse accelerating, blackouts and a decisive NATO defeat incoming

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-201/#comment-5653346

    Watching Douglas Macgregor being interviewed on Redacted he makes the additional point that Russia is marshalling its forces for the big offensive, these are elite forces which will lead any assault, so require rest and refitting beforehand.

    January of this year:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-207/#comment-5779071

    Ugledar on the menu now. Unless a large reserve is being kept and trained than maybe the locals will be wrong and it will be all over before the end of the summer.

    [Vuhledar was a major Russian defeat]

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @AP

    I still think Avdeevka will take awhile, but it looks like I might be wrong, Russians will do what they will do.

    Replies: @AP

  212. Could Vivek be Trump’s choice for VP?

    Personally, I remain skeptical. However, he can be great on camera demolishing anti-MAGA shills like Haley.

    PEACE 😇

  213. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    I wouldn’t call it enthusiasm. Elements of the Serbian government committed a vile act of regicide and terrorism, Austria was fully justified in invading Serbia as the USA was for invading Afghanistan after 9-11.
     
    I have already responded to you here:

    AP compares the Franz Ferdinand assassination to 9/11, but WWI would be comparable to a hypothetical subsequent Afghan War that results in *millions* of US soldiers getting killed in Afghanistan, such as if a hypothetical ultra-technologically-advanced China decides to militarily intervene in Afghanistan in this scenario in order to help the Taliban and is willing to fight the US to the very last man. The crucial question would then be whether *millions* (as opposed to “mere” *thousands*) of US deaths to avenge 9/11 would actually be worth it. And of course 9/11 was much worse than the Sarajevo murders, since the former involved 3,000 civilians deaths while the latter only involved two deaths, albeit two deaths of a very high status (so, maybe comparable to 10 or 20 normal civilian deaths, which is still over 100 times less bad than 9/11 was).
     
    Even if one grants that Austria-Hungary's grievance against Serbia was perfectly legitimate, the subsequent sacrifices that Austria-Hungary endured as a result of going to war to punish Serbia, *even had Austria-Hungary and the Central Powers actually managed to win World War I*, was way too high to actually make this war worth it.

    Sparking a World War that resulted in the deaths of ten million men, many of whom died involuntarily (conscription), in order to avenge the death of a royal and a noble seems excessive, no? You previously rightly criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, arguing that Russia sparked a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people in order to avenge a dozen people or less getting killed in the Donbass every year. Well, one could also make this exact same grievance towards Austria-Hungary.

    If Austria-Hungary wanted to overthrow the Serbian regime, 1904-1905 was the perfect time to do it, while Russia was still busy fighting Japan and thus could still not realistically militarily intervene to protect Serbia, unlike in 1914, when Russia was stronger.

    Replies: @AP

    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil, but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

     

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.

    Heck, by that logic, one can argue (at least from the perspective of Polish national interests) that Poland should have made a deal with Hitler instead of opposing him and that the Anglo-French were evil (at least from a Polish national interests perspective) for encouraging the Poles to resist Hitler through their own Polish guarantees and alliances instead of encouraging the Poles to make a deal with Hitler. (Of course, one could also say that the Anglo-French were evil and/or stupid for refusing to ally with the Soviet Union in 1939. Everything that they feared would happen--a Communization of Eastern Europe--ultimately happened anyway but at a much higher cost for Europe than would have been the case had an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance been created back in 1939.)

    As a side note, though, I do *completely agree* with you that Russia should not have taken Austria-Hungary's bait. Ultimately, letting all Serbs who are displeased with Austro-Hungarian rule (and/or Austro-Hungarian puppet rule) move to Russia (or, alternatively, elsewhere--would the West accept them, for instance?) would have been far better than turning a limited local war into a World War. Russia could have even tried sponsoring a Serbian insurgency against Austria-Hungary afterwards, though I doubt that it would have succeeded and it would have almost certainly created even further Austro-Hungarian hostility towards both the Serbs and Russia.

    That said, though, I'm unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of. Austria in its current borders currently has nine million people but would have had 40-50 million within its 1914 borders had it avoided both World Wars, Nazism, and Communism and kept its 1914 borders up to the present-day*. Russia currently has 150 million people but would have had 500-600 million people within its 1914 borders minus perhaps Poland, which could still perhaps eventually break away from Russia if Russia still ever eventually experiences a successful revolution without the World Wars. So, overall, it's a close call. In terms of suffering, though, it's obvious that Greater Russia suffered much more during the 20th century and beyond than Greater Austria did. The peoples of Greater Austria also appear to have much better relations with each other than the peoples of Greater Russia do, probably in large part due to Putin's aggression against Ukraine.

    *Granted, IMHO, this was not 100% guaranteed in regards to Galicia and Bukovina. If Poland would have ever eventually broken away from Russia even in a no-WWI TL, a trade of Galicia to Poland in exchange for a Hapsburg cadet branch King in Poland might not have seemed completely implausible or undesirable for Austria. And if Galicia would have seceded, then Bukovina might have also done so (except to join Romania) for logistical reasons.

    Replies: @AP

    , @silviosilver
    @AP


    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil,
     
    From your own, rather eccentric, catholic supremacist point of view perhaps. From the point of view of, roughly, the entire field of international relations, it's simply understood, amorally , that Russia had an interest in preventing further Austrian expansion into the balkans. "Defending Serbia" was simply a necessary pretence; citing it serves more to muddy the waters than to illuminate anything. (Wail about "regicide" all you like, it's not an issue I or, in this day and age, anyone else has much interest in in.)

    but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.
     
    For the Russian people, certainly. For the respective regimes, it was equally ruinous. In terms of territorial losses, the "Russians" fared far better.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @Beckow, @AP

  214. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Sure, that war wasn't worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil, but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @silviosilver

    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.

    Heck, by that logic, one can argue (at least from the perspective of Polish national interests) that Poland should have made a deal with Hitler instead of opposing him and that the Anglo-French were evil (at least from a Polish national interests perspective) for encouraging the Poles to resist Hitler through their own Polish guarantees and alliances instead of encouraging the Poles to make a deal with Hitler. (Of course, one could also say that the Anglo-French were evil and/or stupid for refusing to ally with the Soviet Union in 1939. Everything that they feared would happen–a Communization of Eastern Europe–ultimately happened anyway but at a much higher cost for Europe than would have been the case had an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance been created back in 1939.)

    As a side note, though, I do *completely agree* with you that Russia should not have taken Austria-Hungary’s bait. Ultimately, letting all Serbs who are displeased with Austro-Hungarian rule (and/or Austro-Hungarian puppet rule) move to Russia (or, alternatively, elsewhere–would the West accept them, for instance?) would have been far better than turning a limited local war into a World War. Russia could have even tried sponsoring a Serbian insurgency against Austria-Hungary afterwards, though I doubt that it would have succeeded and it would have almost certainly created even further Austro-Hungarian hostility towards both the Serbs and Russia.

    That said, though, I’m unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of. Austria in its current borders currently has nine million people but would have had 40-50 million within its 1914 borders had it avoided both World Wars, Nazism, and Communism and kept its 1914 borders up to the present-day*. Russia currently has 150 million people but would have had 500-600 million people within its 1914 borders minus perhaps Poland, which could still perhaps eventually break away from Russia if Russia still ever eventually experiences a successful revolution without the World Wars. So, overall, it’s a close call. In terms of suffering, though, it’s obvious that Greater Russia suffered much more during the 20th century and beyond than Greater Austria did. The peoples of Greater Austria also appear to have much better relations with each other than the peoples of Greater Russia do, probably in large part due to Putin’s aggression against Ukraine.

    *Granted, IMHO, this was not 100% guaranteed in regards to Galicia and Bukovina. If Poland would have ever eventually broken away from Russia even in a no-WWI TL, a trade of Galicia to Poland in exchange for a Hapsburg cadet branch King in Poland might not have seemed completely implausible or undesirable for Austria. And if Galicia would have seceded, then Bukovina might have also done so (except to join Romania) for logistical reasons.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. XYZ


    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.
     
    No, because the price of Austria not punishing Serbia would not have been as steep as the price for Ukraine not defending itself in 2022.

    That said, though, I’m unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of.
     
    Austria went from being a second-tier world power to being a small very prosperous state with one of the world's highest living standards, and not a lot of blood lost. The ruling family lost its throne and went into generally comfortable exile.

    Russia' power did not decline as much, but it lost tens of millions people to war, brutality, starvation etc. and ended up as a poor country. The ruling family lost its throne and was brutally murdered.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  215. German_reader says:
    @Sher Singh
    @German_reader

    This is not very known, but Germany, for all the dooming about it, is actually in a healthier state than the other west euro nations. Of the current 0-18 cohort, 81% are Euros, 6% Turks, 9% MENA and only 2% Asian and 1.5% African. And yet they're already pushing for remigration.

    Compare with France, where 30-35% of the births are already Maghrebis and blacks, and yet the people are busy protesting pensions reforms. Same for the other countries where fast replacement is happening -- Anglosphere, Benelux, Sweden -- where the pushback also feels weak

    Sure, Germany is far from being perfect. It has a low birthrate, like Japan, and has had one for decades. Aging is bound to have severe consequences. But turning into Japan is incomparably better than turning into Brazil.

    https://nitter.net/dobrerestored/status/1722629839440720248#m

    Thoughts? Bit of a doofus wignat but yea..

    Replies: @German_reader

    Thoughts?

    Maybe a bit too optimistic, but I agree that I don’t think it’s totally hopeless for Germany.
    Quite a bit of regional variation though. AfD is doing well in East Germany, and also has had quite a bit of success in the recent state elections in Bavaria and Hesse (in rural areas, smaller towns etc.). People in North-Rhine-Westphalia and North Germany seem irredeemably fucked in the head though. If present trends continue, I would hope the country eventually splits up, or that at least there’ll be areas where the right-wing counter-culture becomes dominant.

  216. @Greasy William
    @Dmitry


    That is not related to antisemitism.
     
    People like LondonBob who get their news from The Duran are motivated by antisemitism. Such people believe the lies that they are fed about how Hamas is currently standing up the IDF.

    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?
     
    Because I'm a Jew

    Gantz already said they won’t remove Gaza or have a “view to the sea”.
     
    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules of engagement. I'm not expecting Israel to return to the pre Oslo situation, that would be impossible and the Israeli public would never stand for it, but rather I expect Gaza to be turned into 2 ghettos that will be ruled by gangs on the US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria. And of course the people of Gaza will be forbidden from working in Israel, will no longer get electricity and water from Israel and will have their territory further encroached on.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Duran Duran? I’m assuming this is not Duran Duran who are “motivated by antisemitism”. They are from England, but the singer lived in Israel for a year after school in the 1970s when he was a teenager.

    Their first song is about Tel Aviv. They were a kind of progressive rock music in the beginning.

    The lyrics of the song “Chaffeur” was based on an experience of his youth when women Israeli soldiers drove him around in a tractor on a hot day in the desert. I guess from the lyrics, he was there with a girl he was dating.

    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?

    Because I’m a Jew

    I’m sure even Talha knows a letter of Arabic, as he writes about “our Al Quds”. There is some problem of people who try to self-promote themselves talking about opposing football teams they support, without having a relation to these or ever kicking a ball.

    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules

    That would probably not be a strategic victory. Before 2005, Israel received constant security issues in relation to Gaza, as well the costs in terms of international relations of the occupation.

    US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria.

    The situation inherited in the West Bank would be difficult to describe as a strategic victory.

    • Replies: @Greasy William
    @Dmitry

    "The Duran" is a YouTube channel that functions as sort of a central news service for Russophiles. If you got all your information from them you'd think that Hamas has the IDF stopped cold.


    The situation inherited in the West Bank would be difficult to describe as a strategic victory.
     
    There isn't going to be any strategic victories for Israel. Israel will always be the most hated country in the world, it will always be forced to babysit 4+ million (and growing) Palestinians and it will always be at war with over 1 billion Ishmaelites. The reason that the Palestinians have been able to continue their struggle for nearly 80 years now is because they understand that Israel's long term strategic situation is utterly hopeless no matter what Israel does.

    But Moshiach will be here soon, and that is the only strategic victory that Israel will need.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  217. @Mikel
    @Dmitry


    Around a year in the past, you were writing how you believed Mormons of Utah strongly supported Ukraine and some young Mormans had been dying as volunteer soldiers in Ukraine.
     
    I don't remember that. Are you not confusing Ukraine with Afghanistan?

    In any case, it doesn't have anything to do with my comment about the obvious connection between Israel (where the "Nephites" and "Lamanites" allegedly came from) and the Mormon religion. A year ago most Utahns (like most Americans) strongly supported Ukraine and today I see that some religious Mormons are putting up US-Israel flags on their front yards, which is more than they did about Ukraine. I can't say for sure but I know them and it's quite likely a local ward initiative. I wouldn't be surprised if the guidelines come from higher up too.

    Both things can perfectly be true at the same time, can they not? In the same way that Israel may be justified in responding militarily to the October 7th attacks but is not justified in ignoring the Geneva Convention and killing thousands of innocent people. It's not complicated really.

    PS- As a matter of fact, Israel could have perfectly chosen to respond to the attacks in a strictly legal way, by trying to bring the masterminds and perpetrators to justice, like so many civilized countries have done with their own terrorist groups. It's difficult, time-consuming and not too rewarding for those seeking instant retribution but it often works quite well in the long term.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I don’t remember that. Are you not confusing Ukraine

    I guess I misremember, you were talking about the Mormon soldier from Idaho, not a Utah Mormon.
    https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/14/23404548/latter-day-saint-fighting-ukraine-dies-dane-partridge-russia-war-rexburg-idaho

    Mormons are putting up US-Israel flags on their front yards, which is more than they did about Ukraine. I can’t say for sure but I know them and it’s quite likely a local ward initiative. I wouldn’t be surprised if the guidelines come from higher up too.

    It seems some Mormons are Zionists.
    https://jewishjournal.com/judaism/132436/why-mormons-cant-be-anti-zionists/

    Also had Mormons by far the highest positive views towards the American Jews from any of the religions (although not the other direction), which they probably associate to Israel or view as a proxy.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/

    But also Mormons’ culture is patriotic in the Reagan sense of “pro-Western”, which would support Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry

    I sit and work next to a 24 year old Mormon "kid" in the office. In his first year of production, he's breaking all sort of sales records at our successful Advisory firm. Sure, it helps that his father has long been a successful Advisor that he can lean on for advice and encouragement, but from my vantage point, his success is greatly derived from smarts and hard work. He's already spent two years over in Japan on missionary work, and knows the language and culture quite well. A tall, good looking guy too (he looks a lot like a young Charlton Heston), he's been able to attract an equally good looking spouse, and together they already have 3 kids! My impression of a few of the other Mormons in the office is equally positive. My relations with Mormons in Arizona has been quite positive. I used to report to one at another firm that I worked at. A super smart guy who treated me very fairly. They're good, hard working people - America could do much worse.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @John Johnson, @Dmitry

  218. @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    Duran Duran? I'm assuming this is not Duran Duran who are "motivated by antisemitism". They are from England, but the singer lived in Israel for a year after school in the 1970s when he was a teenager.

    Their first song is about Tel Aviv. They were a kind of progressive rock music in the beginning.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO34tTZetfU

    The lyrics of the song "Chaffeur" was based on an experience of his youth when women Israeli soldiers drove him around in a tractor on a hot day in the desert. I guess from the lyrics, he was there with a girl he was dating.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUX9pf_wJmg



    Why “our”? You don’t understand a letter of Hebrew and didn’t visit Israel?

     

    Because I’m a Jew
     
    I'm sure even Talha knows a letter of Arabic, as he writes about "our Al Quds". There is some problem of people who try to self-promote themselves talking about opposing football teams they support, without having a relation to these or ever kicking a ball.

    Gantz also said that Israel will responsible for Gaza security after the war is over and will permanently do raids in and out of the populated areas within Gaza, i.e. returning the the status quo ante 2005, except with much looser rules

     

    That would probably not be a strategic victory. Before 2005, Israel received constant security issues in relation to Gaza, as well the costs in terms of international relations of the occupation.

    US payroll, similar to how the Palestinians currently rule themselves in Judea and Samaria.

     

    The situation inherited in the West Bank would be difficult to describe as a strategic victory.

    Replies: @Greasy William

    “The Duran” is a YouTube channel that functions as sort of a central news service for Russophiles. If you got all your information from them you’d think that Hamas has the IDF stopped cold.

    The situation inherited in the West Bank would be difficult to describe as a strategic victory.

    There isn’t going to be any strategic victories for Israel. Israel will always be the most hated country in the world, it will always be forced to babysit 4+ million (and growing) Palestinians and it will always be at war with over 1 billion Ishmaelites. The reason that the Palestinians have been able to continue their struggle for nearly 80 years now is because they understand that Israel’s long term strategic situation is utterly hopeless no matter what Israel does.

    But Moshiach will be here soon, and that is the only strategic victory that Israel will need.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Greasy William

    I was wondering if you were confusing Duran Duran with another English band Pink Floyd.

    Pink Floyd are writing anti-Israel messages, while Duran Duran are on the opposite side with their first song called "Tel Aviv".

    -

    Pink Floyd - 1970s progressive rock albums, Duran Duran 1980s pop music.

    The difference from the 1970s to 1980s, shows how fast the pop music was changing in that time in the West, each decade had different sounds, changing production methods, different fashion, seems to reflect some important changes of the world consciousness.

    Unlike for the last twenty years, pop music has been stagnating without significant changes and becomes irrelevant as a measurement of the epoch changes.

    If you listen to Duran Duran, there are many "1980s features" which wasn't promoted in the 1970s. The optimism Reagan was reflecting, glamor/superficiality, capitalist excess, businessman's culture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCjMZMxNr-0

    Replies: @S

  219. @A123
    @John Johnson



    Israel will maintain security control. This will prevent Hamas from reforming. It will have ongoing costs, however this is not an unaffordable burden.

     

    Wasn’t the same argument made over the Golan Heights?
     
    *NO*

    • Islam had a choice to negotiate.
    • Islam refused to negotiate.
    • Islam lost the land.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    NO

    Islam had a choice to negotiate.

    Islam is a religion and they are divided on the subject of Israel.

    There isn’t a single representative of Islam that can negotiate.

    Your statement doesn’t make any sense.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    Ukraine is now smaller because they were being stupid and violent?

    You’ve suggested they surrender which would make them non-existent.

    Are you still gunning for Trump or did you finally give that up?

    • Replies: @A123
    @John Johnson

    What part of NO did you fail to understand?

    Was it the NO, the NO, or the *NO*?

    Your inability to grasp *NO* as an answer doesn’t make any sense.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

  220. @Mikel
    @John Johnson


    The scenario of a Russian dictator snapping up non-NATO countries was suggested decades ago.
     
    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven't mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    Replies: @John Johnson

    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven’t mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    They’ve invaded Transnistria, Georgia and Ukraine.

    They fought two bloody wars using unscrupulous tactics to keep in Chechnya.

    They fought Syrian rebels and used nerve agents to prop up Doctor Atheist who is hated by his own people.

    Putin is on record stating that it’s a shame that the USSR dissolved.

    He is also on record stating that the great Tsars are conquerors and “Historic Russia” contains Ukraine.

    Leaked plans show that he expected Kiev to collapse within two weeks and then they would continue on to Moldova.

    Over a dozen people close to him have fallen out of windows or drowned since the invasion.

    You can look at all of this and believe it would be outside of his moral character to invade Finland?

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @John Johnson

    Yes, Putin is a very bad guy who has nevertheless not had the courage to annex South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transistria, 3 small enclaves full of Russians. In all likelihood, what he was planning to link up to was Transinstria, not Moldova, as you keep repeating with no more evidence than an arrow on a map. But he also failed at that.

    Will you now explain where exactly it was "suggested" that a Russian dictator would snap up neighboring countries like Finland for no reason or are you ashamed of letting us know what kind of models our money is spent on? Perhaps if our generals and politicians hadn't believed those models so much they could have spared us this stupid war.

    Replies: @JL

  221. German_reader says:
    @Mikel
    @German_reader


    The stated reasons for those policies don’t make any sense either.
     
    None whatsoever. As far as I know, nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants but the millions that the US is letting in from Latin America and other places are admitted as "asylum seekers". The idea that all of a sudden so many millions need to flee their countries for political reasons and the only solution for the US is to let them in and supposedly spend tens of millions of man-hours at some point in the future examining the merits of each of their applications is so ridiculous that it's hard to understand how people are accepting it so meekly. It's just obvious that someone wants to radically change the demographics of the US.

    As I've mentioned in the past, I happen to know some of these asylum seekers. I hire them sometimes. I won't deny that they're cheaper so that's probably one of the reasons for the invasion. Some people clearly benefit from their presence, including myself at times. But the long term effects are not difficult to imagine. The other day I had a run-in with a Venezuelan truck driver that Home Depot sent me. A very unpleasant guy with a tremendous attitude. We ended up cursing at each other in Spanish (the only language he spoke). I know a family of asylum seekers who have been here for some 8 years but haven't bothered learning English. What for? Everything can be done in Spanish in Utah these days, including getting the husband's professional license. I have no idea if anyone has ever examined their asylum claim but it doesn't matter, they're not going anywhere. They've already had two children that were born in the US and are thus American citizens. It's interesting how nobody mentions deportations of the illegal population anymore. In 2016 it was at least conceivable in theory though obviously nobody was going to expel 11-30 million people anywhere. Now it's a pipe dream.

    Replies: @German_reader, @QCIC, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants

    In Germany that is the pretense, “asylum” is the magic door opener. Essentially the position is that you can’t reject anybody at the borders, because they have a right to have their asylum application heard. And once people are inside the country, virtually nobody ever gets deported.
    I’m surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can’t even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum. Most of these countries are at least semi-democratic in the sense of having regular elections and there aren’t any large-scale wars in Latin America either. Even most internal insurgencies have died down. Sure, there’s a lot of corruption and crime, so I suppose that’s enough reason for Open Borderites.

    • Replies: @AP
    @German_reader


    I’m surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can’t even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum
     
    They claim asylum from gang warfare - that is, they say that because they or their brother refused to pay extortion money to a gang in Guatemala or Mexico or wherever, they are at risk because the gang will kill the whole family.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Mr. XYZ

  222. @John Johnson
    @A123

    NO

    Islam had a choice to negotiate.

    Islam is a religion and they are divided on the subject of Israel.

    There isn't a single representative of Islam that can negotiate.

    Your statement doesn't make any sense.

    Being stupid, violent, pathetic, and intransigent has a price. Syria and Ukraine are now permanently smaller. And, they have only themselves to blame.

    Ukraine is now smaller because they were being stupid and violent?

    You've suggested they surrender which would make them non-existent.

    Are you still gunning for Trump or did you finally give that up?

    Replies: @A123

    What part of NO did you fail to understand?

    Was it the NO, the NO, or the *NO*?

    Your inability to grasp *NO* as an answer doesn’t make any sense.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    @A123

    I understand the concept of no and I wish Biden would use the word with Israel.

    I don't see how Islam can say no as it is a religion and not an entity or even a single organization. It is in fact sharply divided along Shia and Suni lines to where they have fought bloody wars against each other. Furthermore it was a group of countries that attacked Israel and not every Muslim state or even most Muslims.

    Do explain how Islam saying no to Israel in 1967 is any more possible than Sociology ordering a cheese sandwich.

  223. @John Johnson
    @Mikel

    In a James Bond movie? In the real world they haven’t mustered the courage in 3 decades to annex those little enclaves in Georgia full of co-ethnics. Imagine Finland lol.

    They've invaded Transnistria, Georgia and Ukraine.

    They fought two bloody wars using unscrupulous tactics to keep in Chechnya.

    They fought Syrian rebels and used nerve agents to prop up Doctor Atheist who is hated by his own people.

    Putin is on record stating that it's a shame that the USSR dissolved.

    He is also on record stating that the great Tsars are conquerors and "Historic Russia" contains Ukraine.

    Leaked plans show that he expected Kiev to collapse within two weeks and then they would continue on to Moldova.

    Over a dozen people close to him have fallen out of windows or drowned since the invasion.

    You can look at all of this and believe it would be outside of his moral character to invade Finland?

    Replies: @Mikel

    Yes, Putin is a very bad guy who has nevertheless not had the courage to annex South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transistria, 3 small enclaves full of Russians. In all likelihood, what he was planning to link up to was Transinstria, not Moldova, as you keep repeating with no more evidence than an arrow on a map. But he also failed at that.

    Will you now explain where exactly it was “suggested” that a Russian dictator would snap up neighboring countries like Finland for no reason or are you ashamed of letting us know what kind of models our money is spent on? Perhaps if our generals and politicians hadn’t believed those models so much they could have spared us this stupid war.

    • Replies: @JL
    @Mikel

    South Ossetia and Abkhazia aren't "full of Russians" and the latter is very determined to maintain its independence both from Georgia and Russia.

  224. @A123
    @John Johnson

    What part of NO did you fail to understand?

    Was it the NO, the NO, or the *NO*?

    Your inability to grasp *NO* as an answer doesn’t make any sense.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @John Johnson

    I understand the concept of no and I wish Biden would use the word with Israel.

    I don’t see how Islam can say no as it is a religion and not an entity or even a single organization. It is in fact sharply divided along Shia and Suni lines to where they have fought bloody wars against each other. Furthermore it was a group of countries that attacked Israel and not every Muslim state or even most Muslims.

    Do explain how Islam saying no to Israel in 1967 is any more possible than Sociology ordering a cheese sandwich.

  225. @German_reader
    @Mikel


    nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants
     
    In Germany that is the pretense, "asylum" is the magic door opener. Essentially the position is that you can't reject anybody at the borders, because they have a right to have their asylum application heard. And once people are inside the country, virtually nobody ever gets deported.
    I'm surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can't even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum. Most of these countries are at least semi-democratic in the sense of having regular elections and there aren't any large-scale wars in Latin America either. Even most internal insurgencies have died down. Sure, there's a lot of corruption and crime, so I suppose that's enough reason for Open Borderites.

    Replies: @AP

    I’m surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can’t even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum

    They claim asylum from gang warfare – that is, they say that because they or their brother refused to pay extortion money to a gang in Guatemala or Mexico or wherever, they are at risk because the gang will kill the whole family.

    • Thanks: Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Mikel
    @AP


    They claim asylum from gang warfare
     
    I believe some have claimed asylum for domestic violence at home. A guy I once hired told me that he spent a year in the Venezuelan army because he thought that would improve his chances of getting asylum once he made it to the US: become a member of the repressive forces so that you can better pretend to be a genuine defector of the regime later on.

    I know for a fact that there's also a tremendous amount of money involved in all this. You don't leave Venezuela without first checking what the going rate at the Mexican port of entry is. Coyotes at the border need their cut too and the laws of demand and supply keep raising it.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @AP

    You know, I'm surprised that Latin American countries, other than perhaps Bukele's El Salvador right now, are so dysfunctional (in terms of gangs, crime, and their extreme murder rates) in spite of some of them being fairly prosperous by Third World standards and in spite of Latinos doing relatively well in the US (probably a lifestyle comparable to Europeans in Europe). Is living next to a lot of mostly Germanic white Europeans in the US that massively beneficial for Latinos, in terms of them having much better rule of law, a better social safety net (other than perhaps for illegals), et cetera?

  226. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

     

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.

    Heck, by that logic, one can argue (at least from the perspective of Polish national interests) that Poland should have made a deal with Hitler instead of opposing him and that the Anglo-French were evil (at least from a Polish national interests perspective) for encouraging the Poles to resist Hitler through their own Polish guarantees and alliances instead of encouraging the Poles to make a deal with Hitler. (Of course, one could also say that the Anglo-French were evil and/or stupid for refusing to ally with the Soviet Union in 1939. Everything that they feared would happen--a Communization of Eastern Europe--ultimately happened anyway but at a much higher cost for Europe than would have been the case had an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance been created back in 1939.)

    As a side note, though, I do *completely agree* with you that Russia should not have taken Austria-Hungary's bait. Ultimately, letting all Serbs who are displeased with Austro-Hungarian rule (and/or Austro-Hungarian puppet rule) move to Russia (or, alternatively, elsewhere--would the West accept them, for instance?) would have been far better than turning a limited local war into a World War. Russia could have even tried sponsoring a Serbian insurgency against Austria-Hungary afterwards, though I doubt that it would have succeeded and it would have almost certainly created even further Austro-Hungarian hostility towards both the Serbs and Russia.

    That said, though, I'm unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of. Austria in its current borders currently has nine million people but would have had 40-50 million within its 1914 borders had it avoided both World Wars, Nazism, and Communism and kept its 1914 borders up to the present-day*. Russia currently has 150 million people but would have had 500-600 million people within its 1914 borders minus perhaps Poland, which could still perhaps eventually break away from Russia if Russia still ever eventually experiences a successful revolution without the World Wars. So, overall, it's a close call. In terms of suffering, though, it's obvious that Greater Russia suffered much more during the 20th century and beyond than Greater Austria did. The peoples of Greater Austria also appear to have much better relations with each other than the peoples of Greater Russia do, probably in large part due to Putin's aggression against Ukraine.

    *Granted, IMHO, this was not 100% guaranteed in regards to Galicia and Bukovina. If Poland would have ever eventually broken away from Russia even in a no-WWI TL, a trade of Galicia to Poland in exchange for a Hapsburg cadet branch King in Poland might not have seemed completely implausible or undesirable for Austria. And if Galicia would have seceded, then Bukovina might have also done so (except to join Romania) for logistical reasons.

    Replies: @AP

    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.

    No, because the price of Austria not punishing Serbia would not have been as steep as the price for Ukraine not defending itself in 2022.

    That said, though, I’m unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of.

    Austria went from being a second-tier world power to being a small very prosperous state with one of the world’s highest living standards, and not a lot of blood lost. The ruling family lost its throne and went into generally comfortable exile.

    Russia’ power did not decline as much, but it lost tens of millions people to war, brutality, starvation etc. and ended up as a poor country. The ruling family lost its throne and was brutally murdered.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @AP


    No, because the price of Austria not punishing Serbia would not have been as steep as the price for Ukraine not defending itself in 2022.
     
    Well, you're certainly right about that. The Ukrainian people could have abandoned their property or sold it to Russians and moved to the EU, but still, losing their country would have severely sucked. (Most Israelis, for instance, I suspect would not be willing to lose their country even if they could all acquire US citizenship as compensation for this.)

    Austria went from being a second-tier world power to being a small very prosperous state with one of the world’s highest living standards, and not a lot of blood lost. The ruling family lost its throne and went into generally comfortable exile.
     
    Austria lost a lot of blood in World War II (a direct result of World War I) due to it being a part of Nazi Germany and thus Austrians being forced to fight for Nazi Germany, though. Take a look at this map:

    https://i.redd.it/bvyej003gwv11.png

    In 1950, Austria had only 81 males aged 25 to 49 for every 100 females aged 25 to 49. Germany, of course, fared even worse (77), but the ex-Russian Empire lands fared especially poorly (60-something).

    Russia’ power did not decline as much, but it lost tens of millions people to war, brutality, starvation etc. and ended up as a poor country. The ruling family lost its throne and was brutally murdered.
     
    Russia is about as wealthy as Turkey in GDP PPP per capita terms but Yeah, much poorer than Austria. Of course, its average IQ is also probably around 1/3 of a standard deviation below Austria's. I suspect that Russia's full potential would be at around France's or Italy's level, at least without large-scale Western sanctions, which of course won't get removed without a satisfactory solution to the Ukraine question. Russia did lose a significant part of its smart fraction, though: Specifically the White Russians who emigrated during and after the Russian Civil War as well as the Jews who were murdered en masse in the Holocaust and the Jewish survivors and their descendants who emigrated en masse since 1970, a process that is still ongoing even today (and which, until Israel's version of 9/11 occurred a month ago, some right-wing Israelis wanted to stop because they perceived a lot of the ex-USSR newcomers to Israel as being "insufficiently Jewish" due to them having Jewish ancestry on the wrong part of their family tree). (Stupid right-wing Israelis! Wanting to turn away and reject potential human capital, and culturally compatible and easily assimilable one at that, simply because they have a Jewish grandfather rather than a Jewish grandmother like they want them to have. It thankfully appears that Israel's version of 9/11 caused them to indefinitely postpone these plans of theirs.) Austria did lose its Jews as a result of Nazism (to both mass emigration pre-Holocaust and mass murder once the Holocaust occurred), but other than that, Austria does not appear to have lost much of its remaining human capital, at least within its current borders (as opposed to its 1914 borders).

    I did some rough mental calculations and I think that we lost around a Germany's worth of elite science production as a result of all of the demographic devastation that Russia went through during the 20th century. It would have been a France's worth of elite science production if one would have only looked at the 200 million Eastern Slavs who were deprived of existence, but there were also 10+ million Jews who were deprived of existence who would have increased the elite science production from a France's worth to a Germany's worth. (By "worth", I mean "level".)

    Replies: @AP

  227. @AP
    @German_reader


    I’m surprised it plays such a prominent role with Latin Americans in the US. Apart maybe from Venezuela and Cuba I can’t even think of any possible grounds for claiming asylum
     
    They claim asylum from gang warfare - that is, they say that because they or their brother refused to pay extortion money to a gang in Guatemala or Mexico or wherever, they are at risk because the gang will kill the whole family.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Mr. XYZ

    They claim asylum from gang warfare

    I believe some have claimed asylum for domestic violence at home. A guy I once hired told me that he spent a year in the Venezuelan army because he thought that would improve his chances of getting asylum once he made it to the US: become a member of the repressive forces so that you can better pretend to be a genuine defector of the regime later on.

    I know for a fact that there’s also a tremendous amount of money involved in all this. You don’t leave Venezuela without first checking what the going rate at the Mexican port of entry is. Coyotes at the border need their cut too and the laws of demand and supply keep raising it.

    • Agree: AP, Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Mikel

    Seems like there should be more opportunities for Latin Americans to come to the US legally so that they don't have to rely on coyotes to get here illegally, no? That, and the US should accept many more cognitively elitist immigrants from the entire world. They occasionally have their bad apples (see this guy: https://www.newsweek.com/who-loay-alnaji-pro-palestinian-accused-killing-paul-kessler-demonstration-california-1842207 ), but generally they assimilate pretty well, as do most Latin Americans in general (even the working-class ones).

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Mikel

  228. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ


    Sure, that war wasn’t worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    By that logic, Russian nationalists will say that Ukraine should have simply surrendered (and that the West should have encouraged Ukraine to do so immediately) in order to save a lot of lives in 2022 and beyond.
     
    No, because the price of Austria not punishing Serbia would not have been as steep as the price for Ukraine not defending itself in 2022.

    That said, though, I’m unsure that the 20th century was that much worse for Russia relative to Austria based on just how much of their full potential they were deprived of.
     
    Austria went from being a second-tier world power to being a small very prosperous state with one of the world's highest living standards, and not a lot of blood lost. The ruling family lost its throne and went into generally comfortable exile.

    Russia' power did not decline as much, but it lost tens of millions people to war, brutality, starvation etc. and ended up as a poor country. The ruling family lost its throne and was brutally murdered.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    No, because the price of Austria not punishing Serbia would not have been as steep as the price for Ukraine not defending itself in 2022.

    Well, you’re certainly right about that. The Ukrainian people could have abandoned their property or sold it to Russians and moved to the EU, but still, losing their country would have severely sucked. (Most Israelis, for instance, I suspect would not be willing to lose their country even if they could all acquire US citizenship as compensation for this.)

    Austria went from being a second-tier world power to being a small very prosperous state with one of the world’s highest living standards, and not a lot of blood lost. The ruling family lost its throne and went into generally comfortable exile.

    Austria lost a lot of blood in World War II (a direct result of World War I) due to it being a part of Nazi Germany and thus Austrians being forced to fight for Nazi Germany, though. Take a look at this map:

    In 1950, Austria had only 81 males aged 25 to 49 for every 100 females aged 25 to 49. Germany, of course, fared even worse (77), but the ex-Russian Empire lands fared especially poorly (60-something).

    Russia’ power did not decline as much, but it lost tens of millions people to war, brutality, starvation etc. and ended up as a poor country. The ruling family lost its throne and was brutally murdered.

    Russia is about as wealthy as Turkey in GDP PPP per capita terms but Yeah, much poorer than Austria. Of course, its average IQ is also probably around 1/3 of a standard deviation below Austria’s. I suspect that Russia’s full potential would be at around France’s or Italy’s level, at least without large-scale Western sanctions, which of course won’t get removed without a satisfactory solution to the Ukraine question. Russia did lose a significant part of its smart fraction, though: Specifically the White Russians who emigrated during and after the Russian Civil War as well as the Jews who were murdered en masse in the Holocaust and the Jewish survivors and their descendants who emigrated en masse since 1970, a process that is still ongoing even today (and which, until Israel’s version of 9/11 occurred a month ago, some right-wing Israelis wanted to stop because they perceived a lot of the ex-USSR newcomers to Israel as being “insufficiently Jewish” due to them having Jewish ancestry on the wrong part of their family tree). (Stupid right-wing Israelis! Wanting to turn away and reject potential human capital, and culturally compatible and easily assimilable one at that, simply because they have a Jewish grandfather rather than a Jewish grandmother like they want them to have. It thankfully appears that Israel’s version of 9/11 caused them to indefinitely postpone these plans of theirs.) Austria did lose its Jews as a result of Nazism (to both mass emigration pre-Holocaust and mass murder once the Holocaust occurred), but other than that, Austria does not appear to have lost much of its remaining human capital, at least within its current borders (as opposed to its 1914 borders).

    I did some rough mental calculations and I think that we lost around a Germany’s worth of elite science production as a result of all of the demographic devastation that Russia went through during the 20th century. It would have been a France’s worth of elite science production if one would have only looked at the 200 million Eastern Slavs who were deprived of existence, but there were also 10+ million Jews who were deprived of existence who would have increased the elite science production from a France’s worth to a Germany’s worth. (By “worth”, I mean “level”.)

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    First map is kind of fishy. Why is Switzerland so low? The same as Italy? Poland seems high.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ

  229. @sudden death
    @Beckow


    If the unthinkable happens Helsinki is an early target – up to this year it would be bypassed as neutral. That must feel really good.
     
    Reminder that neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target and would have been bombed by Kremlin in case of war with NATO just as any other NATO country, so neutrality means jackshit in nuclear age. As in any other era too, when it was the time for serious SHTF;)

    Replies: @John Johnson, @Beckow

    ….neutral non-NATO Austria was the nuclear target

    No, it wasn’t, nobody was going to nuke Vienna. What you are talking about was in the case Nato used the Austrian territory to attack the Soviets and there was fighting in Austria. That was possible, Austria sits in the center of Europe. Helsinki in Nato is completely different, they are literally now the front-line – and they were not involved before if Finns would stay out. In any case, it it happens, it won’t matter that much, we are all f…d…

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @Beckow

    TBF, Russia would have a harder time against NATO in the Baltic area if it was forced to attack on two fronts: Both the Finnish front and the Baltic States front. Russia would have to split its forces in such a scenario. I also wonder if Russia would try mining the Baltic Sea in such a scenario since NATO should have naval superiority in the Baltic Sea.

    Replies: @Beckow

    , @sudden death
    @Beckow


    nobody was going to nuke Vienna
     
    Desperate lies, as usual;)

    VIENNA would have been one of the first victims of a Soviet nuclear strike on Western Europe despite its neutral status, according to documents detailing the cities to be attacked during a third world war.
    The Austrian capital was joined by Munich and Verona in the list of population centres earmarked for destruction by Warsaw Pact planners preparing for war in 1965.
    The documents, unearthed in Hungarian archives by a team of Swiss researchers, give an insight into the attitudes of the Soviet high command.
    Officers conducting a high-level command exercise did not clarify whether the use of Soviet nuclear weapons had been preceded by a Nato strike, raising the suspicion that the Russians were not impressed by the concept of nuclear deterrence.
    The planners assumed that Nato would be equally ruthless, with Budapest and other Warsaw Pact cities meeting the same fate as Vienna in the early stages of a war.
    Austria's neutrality, established after the Second World War, was not even considered, it being assumed that Nato would violate her territory at the first opportunity.
    The target list is contained in a joint Soviet-Hungarian planning document. In one scenario the Warsaw Pact looses off 7.5 megatons of nuclear weapons on Western targets.
    Vienna is completely destroyed by two 500 kiloton bombs, while Munich is destroyed by one. The Italian cities of Verona and Vicenza follow, together with a host of military targets including airfields and military formations.
    Soviet agents acting in Western Europe were integral to the planning, it being expected that the Warsaw Pact would receive timely warning of Nato formations being placed on alert or deployed for war.
    Plans for full-scale nuclear war in Europe remained in force for the rest of the Cold War.
    Western governments have been as reluctant as their counterparts in the former Soviet Union to go into too much detail about the numbers and names of potential nuclear targets.
    An Air Ministry document recently released at the Public Record Office in London was censored to remove the number of Soviet cities the British nuclear deterrent would have to be able to destroy to remain credible.
    However, the figure, suggested by the British Nuclear Deterrent Study Group, is later revealed in the document as 40.
     
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/1364037/Vienna-was-top-of-Soviet-nuclear-targets-list.html

    Replies: @Beckow

  230. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    The stated reasons for those policies don’t make any sense either.
     
    None whatsoever. As far as I know, nobody in Europe pretends that the people crossing the Mediterranean are not primarily economic migrants but the millions that the US is letting in from Latin America and other places are admitted as "asylum seekers". The idea that all of a sudden so many millions need to flee their countries for political reasons and the only solution for the US is to let them in and supposedly spend tens of millions of man-hours at some point in the future examining the merits of each of their applications is so ridiculous that it's hard to understand how people are accepting it so meekly. It's just obvious that someone wants to radically change the demographics of the US.

    As I've mentioned in the past, I happen to know some of these asylum seekers. I hire them sometimes. I won't deny that they're cheaper so that's probably one of the reasons for the invasion. Some people clearly benefit from their presence, including myself at times. But the long term effects are not difficult to imagine. The other day I had a run-in with a Venezuelan truck driver that Home Depot sent me. A very unpleasant guy with a tremendous attitude. We ended up cursing at each other in Spanish (the only language he spoke). I know a family of asylum seekers who have been here for some 8 years but haven't bothered learning English. What for? Everything can be done in Spanish in Utah these days, including getting the husband's professional license. I have no idea if anyone has ever examined their asylum claim but it doesn't matter, they're not going anywhere. They've already had two children that were born in the US and are thus American citizens. It's interesting how nobody mentions deportations of the illegal population anymore. In 2016 it was at least conceivable in theory though obviously nobody was going to expel 11-30 million people anywhere. Now it's a pipe dream.

    Replies: @German_reader, @QCIC, @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    The migrant repatriation project is easy. After all, it’s the human thing to do and if we all work together imagine what can be accomplished!

    Take 500 unused airliners*, 1 round trip per day (fly home empty, saves fuel), average 100 people each. 50,000 repatriated migrants per day!

    Three years is over 1000 days, so in that time 50,000,000 people (fifty million!) can be joyfully returned to their childhood homes from which they were brutally dragged by the White man’s capitalism!

    Easy peasy!

    *Use 25 airports on either end of the trip home, 20 flights per day. The social cost savings would pay for the transport in real time, no amortization required. People who are currently dealing with the unhealthy immigration problem would have to take up many of the jobs performed by migrants. A lot of those jobs are make work so there is no problem.

    The overseas repatriation project is about the same. With modern air travel there is no reason these oppressed people have to put up with the dreaded Anglo-Americans. Boeing made the world a more compassionate place.

    These heartfelt activities might disrupt some sections of the economy so a case could be made to extend the program over a longer time. On the other hand, sometimes jumping into the cold water head first is best, so maybe knock out both programs in two years. The planes, crews and fuel all exist. Hmmm.

    Think of the healing!

    Next problem?

    • Agree: A123
    • Replies: @A123
    @QCIC

    Three easy steps to largely fix America's problems with new migrants:

    -1- Offshore asylum centers (e.g. Trump's "Stay in Mexico" approach)
    -2- End "birth right" citizenship, which is NOT in the Constitution
    -3- Change court processing to enable rapid deportation of illegal entrants

    "Sanctuary Cities" are being flooded with migrants they cannot afford, which is collapsing support for open borders. All three of these steps are possible in Trump's 2nd term.

    PEACE 😇


  231. [MORE]

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Noviop Co-Prosperity Sphere

    That man is a lying sack of camel poop.

    Ronald Reagan was not an accident. He worked in politics for years before he ran for governor of California. These other characters like Arnold and Donald the Fat are ridiculous.

    Now would one of our lexic lunguic pedants write us a paragraph on the arcane particulars of the -ald / -old phoneme? Please make yourself useful. : )

  232. @AP
    @Mr. XYZ

    Sure, that war wasn't worth it for the Austrian side (or for anyone) even though Austria was justified in invading Serbia. Who was at fault? Russia, for defending the Serbian regime and thereby turning what should have been a limited war into a world war.

    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil, but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    Replies: @Mr. XYZ, @silviosilver

    Defending Serbia was not only immoral and evil,

    From your own, rather eccentric, catholic supremacist point of view perhaps. From the point of view of, roughly, the entire field of international relations, it’s simply understood, amorally , that Russia had an interest in preventing further Austrian expansion into the balkans. “Defending Serbia” was simply a necessary pretence; citing it serves more to muddy the waters than to illuminate anything. (Wail about “regicide” all you like, it’s not an issue I or, in this day and age, anyone else has much interest in in.)

    but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    For the Russian people, certainly. For the respective regimes, it was equally ruinous. In terms of territorial losses, the “Russians” fared far better.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    @silviosilver


    From your own, rather eccentric, catholic supremacist point of view perhaps. From the point of view of, roughly, the entire field of international relations, it’s simply understood, amorally , that Russia had an interest in preventing further Austrian expansion into the balkans. “Defending Serbia” was simply a necessary pretence; citing it serves more to muddy the waters than to illuminate anything. (Wail about “regicide” all you like, it’s not an issue I or, in this day and age, anyone else has much interest in in.)
     
    Actually, I don't think that Serbia or even Constantinople were particularly vital interests for Russia. But I suppose that if Russia did consider Constantinople to be a vital interest, then having a friendly ally in the Balkans would certainly improve Russia's position there. Russia already burned its bridges with Bulgaria in 1913 when it refused to support Bulgaria in the Second Balkan War, after all. Serbia was, other than tiny Montenegro, Russia's only remaining ally in the Balkans in 1914.

    I do think that Austria-Hungary behaved in 1914 much in the same way that Russia behaved in 2022. In other words, seeking to have a friendly regime in its sphere of influence rather than a hostile or potentially hostile regime.

    For the Russian people, certainly. For the respective regimes, it was equally ruinous. In terms of territorial losses, the “Russians” fared far better.
     
    The Hapsburgs did not get murdered like the Romanovs did.
    , @Beckow
    @silviosilver


    Wail about "regicide"...
     
    Sure, Franz Ferdinand was special. But it was a "princide", he was still in waiting. I am more bothered by the poor Chotek woman who was shot with Franz - the impoverished Czech country girl with some blue blood, but not enough, does the deed and marries the ugly, elderly Habsburg and then gets shot.

    Chotek was only a "morganatic" spouse. I am not sure what it means, AP would know, something like a half-marriage tolerated by the elderly a..hole widower on the throne.

    Habsburg Empire by 1900 was done, probably already by 1870 after losing to Italy and Prussia. They were living out their lives waiting for the inevitable end. Russia became the bugaboo - as it always does for half-dead empires - so the Habs had to attack in the Balkans. It made no sense, they already had over 50% Slavic population, but they thought that by getting more it may get better. The stupidity of the elderly has-beens.

    Who put the fork in the Habsburgs were the Czechs, for once in their cowardly history they did something. They stubbornly demanded equal rights and even started to teach Russian in few schools - the horror! It was probably early meddling by Putin. Given the demographics, Habsburgs had no moves left. So they attacked Serbia. Brilliant...but zugzwang is a zugzwang.

    Without the existence of Russia, its size and power, there would today be no Czechia or Slovakia, almost no Balkan Slavs left, definitely the Bulgars would be gone, Poland would be a small dual-language dependency feuding with crazy Galicians. And the Ukies? gone, the lands would be taken by better people from the West and Ukies would even like it.

    The very existence of these cursed nations depends on their stubborn dislike of "Russians" and also existential dependency on Russia's existence. Maybe it should end.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Emil Nikola Richard

    , @AP
    @silviosilver


    From your own, rather eccentric, catholic supremacist point of view perhaps.
     
    It was bad regardless.

    A branch of the Serbian state armed, trained and sent a terrorist to murder the heir to the throne (who also killed his wife).

    Imagine if a country did that to the president-elect of any modern country. It's an act of war. Austria's response to what Serbia did was completely justified.

    From the point of view of, roughly, the entire field of international relations, it’s simply understood, amorally , that Russia had an interest in preventing further Austrian expansion into the balkans
     
    Perhaps so, but this meant a direct war with two superpowers and given the alliance system French involvement also. So Russia's action meant automatic pan-European war. Not justified.

    but far more costly for Russia than was Austria punishing Serbia for Austria.

    For the Russian people, certainly. For the respective regimes, it was equally ruinous. In terms of territorial losses, the “Russians” fared far better.
     
    Correct on the first two points (though the Hapsburgs themselves fared much, much better than did the Romanovs who were brutally murdered in some cellar).

    The third is more complicated - both countries ended up splitting up along ethnic lines, but the German part of Austria simply happened to be tiny compared to the Russian portion of the Russian Empire. I suppose the loss of south Tyrolese and the Sudeten Germans to the ethnic Austrian state may have relatively been greater than the loss of Russians in Kazakhstan, Baltics and Ukraine (even with Crimea and Donbas back) to the post-Soviet Russian state but I wouldn'