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更新：这是格雷戈里·科克伦的 响应 Ioannidis 教授预测美国只有 1% 的感染者
从 STAT:
一场惨败正在酝酿中？ 随着冠状病毒大流行的到来，我们在没有可靠数据的情况下进行决策
作者：约翰·P.A.伊奥尼迪斯 17 年 2020 月 XNUMX 日
约阿尼迪斯 是备受尊敬的斯坦福大学流行病学家/统计学家，他在 2005 年发表的论文 “为什么大多数已发表的研究结果都是错误的” 对现在所谓的复制危机产生了巨大影响。
当前的冠状病毒疾病 Covid-19 被称为百年一遇的大流行。但这也可能是百年一遇的证据惨败。
当每个人都需要更好的信息时，从疾病建模者和政府到被隔离的人或只是保持社交距离，我们缺乏可靠的证据来证明有多少人已经感染了 SARS-CoV-2 或有多少人继续受到感染。需要更好的信息来指导具有重大意义的决策和行动并监测其影响。
许多国家采取了严厉的反制措施。如果疫情自行消散或由于这些措施而消散，短期的极端社交距离和封锁可能是可以忍受的。然而，如果疫情在全球蔓延有增无减，这样的措施应该持续多久呢？政策制定者如何判断他们的做法是否利大于弊？
疫苗或负担得起的治疗方法需要数月（甚至数年）才能正确开发和测试。鉴于这样的时间表，长期封锁的后果完全未知。
迄今为止收集的关于有多少人被感染以及疫情如何演变的数据完全不可靠。鉴于迄今为止的检测有限，一些死亡病例以及可能绝大多数由 SARS-CoV-2 引起的感染都被遗漏了。我们不知道我们是否未能捕获感染者的三倍或三百倍。疫情爆发三个月后，包括美国在内的大多数国家缺乏对大量人群进行检测的能力，也没有国家拥有可靠的数据关于病毒在一般人群中具有代表性的随机样本中的流行情况。
埃米尔 OW 柯克郭尔 问：“他们为什么不对新冠病毒进行随机抽样测试？就像他们为选举进行民意调查一样。每天都做，1000个代表人。为什么不？当然，世界各国政府可以想出如何进行随机抽样并完成这 1000 项测试。”
例如，每天在我家附近，白天都有很多家庭在人行道上。人们相隔10英尺进行愉快的交谈，社区感很强。在 Nextdoor.com 等邻里网站上宣传，周六将由身着白大褂的测试人员挨家挨户进行官方调查。他们会在您的前廊进行测试，而无需进入您的房子。每个接受调查的人都在周五接受了检测，结果呈阴性。您可以快速获得当地相当随机的样本（例如 10 个社区中每个社区有 100 个人，或者我们需要 10,000 人吗？
该病毒的传播范围可能比想象的更广泛，这表明死亡率较低。或者它可能仍然很罕见，了解这一点会很有用。
让我们进行随机测试 发生.
计算机大师丹尼·希利斯 (Danny Hillis) 说道： 一样.
这个周末我们在西雅图地区测试一下。西雅图不乏高调的亿万富翁，比如盖茨、贝索斯或舒尔茨，他们可以开一张支票来支付。
我们可以完成这个。
这一证据的惨败给死于 Covid-19 的风险带来了巨大的不确定性。报告的病死率（如世界卫生组织官方公布的 3.4%）令人恐惧，而且毫无意义。接受过 SARS-CoV-2 检测的患者中，不成比例地存在严重症状和不良结果。由于大多数卫生系统的检测能力有限，选择偏差在不久的将来甚至可能会恶化。
对整个封闭群体进行测试的唯一一种情况是 钻石公主 游轮及其检疫乘客。那里的病死率为 1.0%，但这里主要是老年人口，其中 Covid-19 的死亡率要高得多。
将钻石公主号的死亡率推算到美国人口的年龄结构，感染Covid-19的人的死亡率将为0.125%。但由于这一估计基于极其薄弱的数据——700 名受感染的乘客和机组人员中只有 0.025 人死亡——实际死亡率可能从低五倍 (0.625%) 到高五倍 (XNUMX%)。
也许。或者结果可能是 钻石公主 这是一个偶然的环境，意大利的情况更为常见。或者结果可能是，其中一种新疗法有效，一个月后的死亡率甚至更低。或者许多其他的可能性。此刻，未来是不成文的。
一个大问题就是我们所说的数据卫生。例如，意大利的死亡率很高，而德国的死亡率迄今为止很低。这是由于实际差异还是由于报告数字的方法差异所致？我不知道，但有人有线索，所以我们应该听听他们的意见。
……加上这些额外的不确定性来源，对美国普通人群病死率的合理估计在 0.05% 到 1% 之间。
1%的病死率60%的感染者大约有2万人死亡。
另一方面，衡量这一点的另一种方法是损失的年数。比如说，我今年61岁了，我的寿命已经不多了，而且我已经享受了美好的生活。如果这件事让我失望的话，那也不是什么大悲剧。 （另一方面，就我个人而言，我非常反对这种结果，所以我每天洗手/消毒 60 次，并用肘部打开和关闭电灯开关。）
如果这只会杀死或伤害我们这些老人，那么，那还不错。但是……我们对影响的年龄结构有多少统计信心是模糊的。此外，这种新疾病是否会让许多正值壮年的人从此患上严重的肺部问题？目前，谁知道呢？
这个巨大的范围显着影响了大流行的严重程度以及应该采取的措施。全人群病死率为 0.05%，低于季节性流感。如果这是真实的比率，那么封锁世界可能会带来巨大的社会和经济后果，这可能是完全不合理的。 ……
......如果我们假设一般人群中 SARS-CoV-2 感染者的病死率为 0.3%（这是我的钻石公主号分析的中等猜测），并且 1% 的美国人口受到感染（约 3.3 万）人），这将意味着约 10,000 人死亡。这听起来是一个巨大的数字，但它被淹没在“流感样疾病”死亡人数估计的噪音之中。
另一方面，其他估计认为在群体免疫生效之前感染率为 60%。
很难说。
一些人担心，截至 68 月 19 日，美国因 Covid-16 死亡的 680 人将呈指数级增长，达到 6,800 人、68,000 人、680,000 人、XNUMX 人……全球各地也出现类似的灾难性模式。这是现实场景还是糟糕的科幻小说？我们如何知道这样的曲线可能会在什么点停止？
回答这些问题最有价值的信息是了解人口随机样本中当前感染的流行情况，并定期重复此练习以估计新感染的发生率。遗憾的是，我们没有这些信息。
让我们获取该信息。
美国在检测能力方面一直落后得可耻，但我们有巨大的资源可以赶上。
例如，几天前，我从第四手消息得知，一位女士自己做了 COVID-4 PCR 检测，以测试她所在街区的孩子和他们的朋友。诚然，她从事 CRISPR 生物工程项目，但仍然……
同样，资金雄厚的布罗德研究所（Broad Institute）是哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的合资企业，也是著名的古基因组学实验室戴维·赖克（David Reich）和尼克·帕特森（Nick Patterson）的所在地，下周将每天处理 1,000 份新冠病毒检测，并且可以未来的增长幅度将远远超过这个水平。我是古基因组学的忠实粉丝，但如果这些世界级的大脑致力于持续时间的努力，我可以在明年左右的时间内没有关于该主题的新论文。
在缺乏数据的情况下，为最坏的情况做准备的推理会导致采取极端的社交距离和封锁措施。不幸的是，我们不知道这些措施是否有效。例如，学校关闭可能会降低传播率。但如果孩子们无论如何都要进行社交活动，如果学校停课导致孩子们花更多时间与易受影响的老年家庭成员在一起，如果孩子在家影响父母的工作能力等等，它们也可能会适得其反。学校停课还可能降低未患严重疾病的年龄组产生群体免疫力的机会。
关于学校停课的好消息是，如果结果是一场惨败，我们可以将学年延长到暑假。虽然许多企业可能因封锁而拖欠债务，但唯一可能受到永久性严重伤害的美国学生是即将毕业的高中生，他们本学期到目前为止一直在偷懒，但他们会做得足够好在他们毕业的最后一个学期的后半段。对于已经申请大学的高中生来说，这个学期微不足道。
相比之下，企业、个体户和新失业者则面临着因贷款违约准备金而遭受严重后果的危险。所以我的印象是，学校比企业更需要谨慎行事。但您的印象可能会有所不同。
这就是英国保持学校开放的不同立场背后的观点，至少在我写这篇文章之前是这样。
英国刚刚 关闭 学校，尽管医护人员仍然可以将孩子送到学校作为日托中心，这似乎是明智的。
由于这种病毒的不同寻常的年龄特征，关闭学校可能是一种过度反应，但是……学校一直在关闭：教师罢工、下雪天、烟雾天等。这不是世界末日。好学生会在网上学习，差学生不会，就像在教室里一样。
当然，高危人群的确切年龄特征比总体死亡率更不确定。
由于缺乏有关流行病真实过程的数据，我们不知道这种观点是明智的还是灾难性的。
从理论上讲，压平曲线以避免卫生系统不堪重负在概念上是合理的。在媒体和社交媒体上疯传的一个视觉效果显示，曲线变平可以减少超过卫生系统随时可以处理的阈值的流行病数量。
然而，如果卫生系统确实不堪重负，大部分额外死亡可能不是由于冠状病毒，而是由于其他常见疾病和病症，如心脏病、中风、创伤、出血等未得到充分治疗的疾病和病症。
的确。
如果疫情的严重程度确实让卫生系统不堪重负，而极端措施收效甚微，那么拉平曲线可能会让情况变得更糟：卫生系统不会在短期急性阶段不堪重负，而是会在更长的时间内保持不堪重负。 。这是我们需要有关流行病活动确切水平的数据的另一个原因。
的确。
底线之一是，我们不知道社交距离措施和封锁可以维持多久，而不会对经济、社会和心理健康造成重大影响。不可预测的变化可能随之而来，包括金融危机、动乱、内乱、战争和社会结构的崩溃。至少，我们需要针对不断变化的感染负荷的公正的流行率和发病率数据来指导决策。
的确。
在最悲观的情况下（我不支持），如果新的冠状病毒感染全球60％的人口，而1％的感染者死亡，这将导致全球超过40万人死亡，与1918年的流感大流行相匹配。
这很糟糕。
此类遗产的绝大多数将是预期寿命有限的人。 这与1918年（当时许多年轻人去世）形成鲜明对比。
我们希望。
听着，杰克，我们是美利坚合众国，有史以来最牛逼的国家。进行科学有效的随机抽样调查并不超出我们国家的能力。所以 …
让我们获取数据。
One of several problems with a true random sampling is that it would have to be forcible, and we have legal protections against that sort of thing. I’ll leave the more pedestrian issues of how to achieve a true representative sample to the ‘spectrum’ contributors here.
One way to get a random-ish sample, famous people. It seems people are issuing press releases when they get a positive test. For example Mr and Mrs Hanks seem to have contracted the disease but are not suffering in any way.
Conspiracy theorists will enjoy this, Wikipedia deleted the running list of notable people who got coronavirus positive tests with no discussion permitted. Does the NWO fear people will see coronavirus is not that big a deal?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Deletion_review/Log/2020_March_19#List_of_people_with_coronavirus_disease_2019
Make the testing random and optionally anonymous (i.e. if you want the results give your contact info). If a few people refuse it won't hurt the statistical significance.
Didn't Wuhan already serve as a test tube for measuring the infection and mortality rates during an unconstrained ramp up, and a controlled ramp down of the virus?
Were the Chinese unable to properly collect this data? Or do we simply not trust them to tell us what they found?
回复：@ Prosa123
CFR of one percent is not 3.3 million, that would assume everyone in the US got infected?
Ferguson’s worst case scenario is 0.9% with eighty percent infected.
Thanks. I will fix it.
Speaking of testing, why are we not hearing more about the need for a test to identify those who have been recently infected, say since January, but are now completely recovered and presumably immune? If the number is large wouldn't it be good to know?
The Seattle area would be a good place to start. Not sure what such a test would look like -- drawing serum & looking for antibodies? -- but it ought to be a priority.
Replies: @epebble, @Luke Lea
There are many times the number of people on earth than in 1918 so matching the number of deaths of the Spanish Flu is not same. It does need to be emphasised more that the great tragedy of the Spanish Flu was that it killed the young and healthy, I read pregnant women were the worst hit.
The people running this hoax most definitely do not want a bunch of data to get in the way of their propaganda operation. It is necessary that everyone be vaguely and deeply scared, and separated from people with whom they might begin to lose their fear. The people (a great lot of them remember your waiters and bartenders!!) have to be both afraid of what comes next (the job I was working at McGuffin’s Bar and Grille, which was mostly cash, and just enough to keep me going, is gone. How am I going to pay the rent??) and make them dependent on the powers-that-be all at once. So McGuffins’ is closed, Uncle Sam (in the person of Trump or Pelosi, take your pick) is going to ensure that I do not have to move into the homeless encampment. This is the almost instantaneous manufacture of dependency in a huge number of people. It is, in it’s own way, an awesome sight. Will the dependents be a reliable shock force, if called upon, sort of like Antifa in Portland? I wonder.
测试施密斯特。我完全赞成对公共卫生威胁采取合理的预防和治疗措施。冠状病毒®不是这样的东西。真实的测试会揭示这一点，因此史蒂夫所描述的真实测试将不会被允许。
Omg. It isn't a hoax, it is a panic. Those who truck in such conspiracy theories are Dunning-Krugering it. They think that if they were in charge they would never mess things up as badly as the response to this virus has been messed up. They are too ignorant and stupid to even begin to release how complicated a problem this and others are.
回复：@Brian Reilly
有一些耻辱。
My thought was that the new dependent class will suddenly be offered jobs by the military.
Then, the US will suddenly be in a major war with Iran. Or China.
I saw my first rescission order, mayor of Mt. Vernon reopens salons. The mayor of Las Vegas, just one day after Nevada’s governor shut down everything, has demanded Vegas be reopened. These shutdowns cannot last, tanking our economy to potentially save a fraction of 80+ year olds is insane.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/cannot-survive-las-vegas-mayor-asks-governor-to-shorten-business-shutdown-1984653/
https://youtu.be/QxQg4i4MwfU
Close Las Vegas. 15kT should do it.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1216822645712355328/1xdEMF6c_400x400.jpg
不要抱怨没有 Kung Fluey，或者“Shawyn”会要求备份：
https://www.unz.com/isteve/police-commissioner-outlaw-inlaws-her-favorite-nail-polish-in-opening-salvo-of-world-war-nails/#comment-3718245
https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/IOT8kywQF7ivMo0_FJlJVxkEDLg=/1400x0/center/middle/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/MNIWRLJZ7ZBN3PAU2UTQSYOJDA.jpg
“哟声音的丙酮让我感到惊讶”！ 你以为自己是角质层吗？ 我不会被任何废话所吸引！”
回复：@eastkekiisawhiteguy、@Kolya Krassotkin
Mt. Vernon is a predominantly black city, and as our site host has pointed out many times, beauty salons and barber shops can be de facto community centers in some black communities.
I still don’t agree with this. I’ve built a lot of stuff and know how to get things done.
You can’t let projected difficulties discourage you from taking the first step. Once you act, your actions will set the system in motion. After one iteration, the system will have changed. Then you step back, reassess and modify your approach. The way forward will make itself plain to you. What is cloudy now will be clear then.
These guys are stuck because a matrix of equations will not run until given some data–but you never have all the data! If you did, you wouldn’t need to run a simulation. You would be God.
So, to initiate the program you must introduce some initial unbalance to the system. This seems odd but that’s how things work. Your initial trial will not be perfect! Accept that.
How did the Zen Master put it?
“弓断了
箭头全没了
No fainting heart hesitate
Shoot with no delay!.”
Ferguson's worst case scenario is 0.9% with eighty percent infected.
回复：@Steve Sailer，@Luke Lea
Thanks. I will fix it.
So we are flying blind and have decided to condemn the economy to a likely depression from which it will take years to recover. The trade off may be gaining a few quality adjusted life years for some old people vs general immiseration for everyone else.
具有讽刺意味的是，经济低迷对整个公众健康有益，而不仅仅是老年人。人们开车更少——车祸更少。工业关闭——空气污染减少。人们花在毒品、酒精和致胖食品上的钱越来越少。 ETC。
现在，这并不意味着我们应该让经济陷入困境，但我们正在做的事情只会让婴儿潮一代受益的想法是错误的。现在，婴儿潮一代可能很自私，但我从一些人身上看到，他们一想到他们都会死去，就感到高兴，这是不体面的。这显示了解雇任何群体的危险 - 你会快速而无缝地从“好吧，婴儿潮一代”到“死吧，婴儿潮一代，死吧！”。这与这样一种观点相一致：白人（尤其是老年白人），尤其是男性，是唯一可以公开仇恨的群体。如果这场瘟疫对黑人尤其严重，那么没有人敢说：“我们不要为了帮助 13% 的黑人而让整个经济陷入困境。”
回复：@Jonathan Mason、@Patrick Sullivan、@Robert Dolan
"So we are flying blind and have decided to condemn the economy to a likely depression from which it will take years to recover. The trade off may be gaining a few quality adjusted life years for some old people vs general immiseration for everyone else."
The tragedy is we can (could have at this point) achieve both: maintain the Trump Miracle AND gain years for decrepit oldsters. It's super simples: oldsters self-quarantine until summer. It is a win-win. Modern tech allows geezer-Americans to see and hear their chillens and grand chillens during The Duration.
But coronahoax is in reality Joe Biden's election gambit, where Democratic governors have assembled an enormous excrement sammich and forced us all to take a bite.
回复：@约翰·伯恩斯，葛底斯堡游击队
我一直没有看到的数字是，如果不接受治疗，感染者将死亡的百分比是多少。我见过多达 20% 的人需要住院治疗，如果他们中的很多人在没有医疗的情况下都无法生存，那么，像美国这么大的一个国家，20% 的人就很多了。
失去患病最严重的 20% 人口？
这个结果的术语就是经济奇迹！
这就是为什么70岁以上的人不会接受治疗，就像在意大利今天65岁以上的人被拒绝接受治疗一样……他们将拒绝对40岁以上的肥胖者进行治疗，因为40岁的肥胖男性的生存能力与70岁的健康男性相同。
老年人将无法获得呼吸机，因为即使我们让他们使用呼吸机，他们的生存可能性也较小。最好把医院的床位留给那些存活率大于50%的人。大多数戴上呼吸机的老人（60%-80%）都会在几天内死亡，那为什么要把我们的资源浪费在他们身上呢？
通风并不是一种愉快的经历。我父亲51岁得肺炎时被戴上呼吸机。经历过这次经历后，他告诉家人让他死吧，下次得肺炎时不要送他去医院。由于拒绝再次使用呼吸机，他于 60 岁时死于肺炎。
回复：@vhrm
当然，如果这会杀死 20% 的人口，那就太糟糕了。但 20% 的感染者需要住院治疗，距离 20% 的人口死亡还有很长的路要走。为了实现这一点，你需要一大堆明显错误的假设——100%的人口被感染，可用的医院床位为零，100%需要住院治疗的人除非得到治疗否则就会死亡，等等。
即使是绝对最坏的情况（我们很可能会远远达不到这种情况），美国的死亡人数也只有数百万而不是数千万。
我知道我所在地区的疗养院已被封锁，没有访客，每个进入的人都要接受体温检查，送货到前厅。 但工作人员没有口罩。 挨家挨户的健康助手也是如此。好吧，给他们戴口罩，减少无声传播！重用总比什么都没有好。你好，联邦紧急事务管理局？预防就是充分利用资源。
我的机构不能或不会超出 CDC 的要求。他们不承认无声传播的存在，因为疾病预防控制中心的通讯不承认。
经营卫生企业和卫生部门的人们对文书工作、无聊、官僚主义、例行公事、政策、程序有极大的容忍度，并按时提交表格。他们不主动；他们不展望未来，也不独立采取果断措施。
该州北部的一家医院报告称，一天内使用了近 800 个 N95 口罩，用于照顾 6 名 ICU 的 Covid19 患者以及一些非危重患者。如果你建造一个密封病房，让 20 名穿着兔子服和 N95 的员工轮班四个小时，只为病人更换外层手套，那么你每天要使用 80 个口罩。但监管人员表示，每位患者都要更换并穿戴新的个人防护装备。
问题不在于重症病例的比例有多少，而在于会有多少重症病例。
执行该计划将接受数百万老年人的加速死亡，以及大量非老年人的死亡。
它还会破坏我们的医院和疗养院、医生和护士的健康和精神。这将使他们无法为其他病人和受伤的人提供服务。
办案：不收治超过一定年龄的重症新冠患者？让他们的家人在没有专业知识或防护装备的情况下照顾他们，进而生病？
或者最终给他们注射镇静剂，因为这是缓解窒息的痛苦和恐惧的唯一方法？从纯粹功利主义的角度来看，彻底的安乐死可以更有效地预防新的感染并节省资源。
如果我们尽早用羟氯喹鸡尾酒治疗高危患者会怎么样？这会阻止病情发展为严重/危重疾病并住院吗？这将是资源的良好利用。我们有多少 HCQ，我们能多快生产？
但伊奥尼迪斯的观点是，我们不知道意大利的情况是什么。我们不知道核实的35,713个案例是否大致准确，低一个数量级，还是低两个或更多数量级。即使对于最悲观的人来说，它的低水平似乎也是显而易见的，但目前无法知道有多低（您对随机测试的支持是个好主意）。
钻石公主 是一个完美的现实生活实验室实验。 712 名乘客和机组人员中有 3,711 人被感染（19%）。在一艘拥挤的船上，挤满了老人，空气循环，没有人采取特别的预防措施。死亡率 感染者中 1%，7人死亡。死亡率为0.019%。
如果 622,000% 的美国人感染了 Covid-19，并且 19% 的人中有 1% 死亡，那么这仍然意味着 19 名美国人死亡。尽管美国的人口密度比船上的密度低数千倍（当然像纽约和西雅图这样拥挤的城市，里程也会有所不同），但人们现在采取了预防措施，而且美国的年龄结构也完全没有变化。与游轮的船龄情况类似，10,000 万人或更多死亡的可能性微乎其微。 XNUMX 甚至不太可能。
同意。我昨天在评论部分发布了这篇文章，恐怕史蒂夫没有充分发挥它的作用。
他估计病死率的可能性要低得多。他的 CFR 范围上限低于大多数末日论者使用的数字。他还至少顺便提到了存在权衡的事实。经济萧条有其自身的负面健康后果。
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
这将四舍五入到 19%。你已经落后了 10 倍。
回复：@jsm
I must say, as I approach 40, fit as a fiddle and smart as a whip, the prospect of inheriting my boss’s job and my parent’s money sounds like a win. If we assume the death toll skews towards the jet-setters of the world, ~3 million scions similarly leveling up sounds like progress to me. Sorry, oldsters, you’re holding up the freakshow.
True. Just think what a die off of the 60+ crowd would do for the solvency of SS and Medicare!
OK, boomer. Time to go.
回复：@McKenna先生
Same places were doing population testing, though often only in hospitals. The problem is simply the availability of tests, some places had enough or had enough at a particular stage of the outbreak but no longer. You need to priortise likely cases with symptoms and those with severe symptoms if you don’t have enough testing kits or don’t have enough capacity to process them.
We haven’t seen this virus truly spreading without controls for very long, it’s potential numbers of infected and the cohorts most likely to in situations of maximum spread (Children, adolescents and young adults) tend to the exactly those who fail to develop noticeable symptoms. The ‘disease is worse than the cure’ mentality has the advantage of the ‘disease’ not appearing in full form yet. We should all be reassured by the setting of a precedent for pandemic outbreaks so strong. Indeed, some of this may even be an attempt to test such measures with a virus with low (At least in Western countries, I’m still interested in how IFITM3 variants might influence disease course) stakes.
But broader than discussions of how appropriate some of the measures are, is the question, in our neoliberal age, we question the cost to Goldman Sachs of every government decision. We’ve seen an admirable display of collectivism, social cohesion and acceptance of a purpose beyond money. People aren’t groaning or complaining and they’re not doing it because they think they will die, they’re doing it because they’re concerned about the old and sick dying. This time something other than money won. That’s at least something worth celebrating.
Collectivism? Besides necessary and basic countermeasures like travel bans, self quarantine, and social distancing, there has been a huge overreaction in the United States.
'Money' did win. Or rather, the salaried clerisy won. Who will continue to get paid -- unlike many other workers affected by shelter in place orders.
It's real easy to feel good about yourself, and being obscenely cautious about public health, when you aren't the one making the sacrifices. Life and society are always risk and benefit balancing among many groups.
Wuhan virus has shown me lots of groups, like conservatives or libertarians in at risk demographics (60+), will gladly throw the under 40 under the bus, or cheer doing so.
In conservative circles, the fallout from this event will end up more divisive than the election of President Trump in 2016.
Up with this sort if thing.
https://twitter.com/aiellotv/status/1240598233535205376?s=21
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/cannot-survive-las-vegas-mayor-asks-governor-to-shorten-business-shutdown-1984653/
Replies: @Smithsonian, @El Dato, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Prosa123
I bet his wife made him do it.
谢谢史蒂夫，让我们将另一个伟大的想法播撒到公众讨论中。
我想听到人们开始讨论的是，当金钱停止流动时，我们如何才能使资本主义进入休眠状态一段时间。我们怎样才能让我们的机构陷入昏迷而不杀死它们？
我们看到意大利关于暂停租金的报道。随着大封锁的继续，将就其他什么样的民主安排进行谈判？
我是一所小型私立大学的教授。退还今年剩余时间的食宿费用使我们的预算出现了一个无法填补的巨大缺口。我们是现在就因秋季即将入学的一小批学生而裁员，还是立即大幅削减工资？
必要行业与非必要行业将会产生巨大的差异性后果。我们如何保持非必要机构的活力？餐饮、教育、娱乐、旅游、服务。难道每个人都拿半薪四个月才能让机构陷入昏迷吗？
有人提议在 19 年 2019 月 XNUMX 日左右停止时钟：
这就是失业保险的用途。就像钢铁厂或造船厂被解雇一样。
也许每个月让人们回来一周（或一小部分）以保持灯亮和保险继续进行。另一种思考方式是“工作共享”。
这对人力资源部来说是一个挑战，但在我看来，这比仅仅承担成本要好。
The issue with testing is not the technical process. The issue is getting a health care provider to put a swab up your nose and doing the logistics to get the swab analyzed. LabCorp and Quest Diagnostic have had commercial tests available to any physician or clinic that has an account with them (virtually all of them) for at least a week. However, the providers are reluctant to provide the test due to the danger to putting a swab up the nose of someone who is potentially positive and due to the issue of what to do with the person if they turn up positive. That is why the urgent care clinics are not offering the tests even though they are capable of doing it.
A good example of the issues of testing are the 73 firemen and ems workers in Washington, DC who were potentially exposed. Why have them quarantine for two weeks rather than test them after a couple of days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/73-dc-firefighters-and-first-responders-under-quarantine-union-says/2020/03/18/50106074-6948-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html
What is also shocking is how many people are at higher risk due to recent travel. Did none of those idiots pay attention to the news for the last two months?
Thanks. OK, but that's something that can be solved. I don't know how to collect nasal swabs of random people without infecting the sample taker, but somebody out there does. People have thought this through before.
In the absence of information from widespread testing, the number of cases isn’t the best measure. Rather, the number of deaths per day is a better measure.
Using number of deaths per day, the US is well behind Italy, although some experts contend that we won’t know for sure until the US reaches a higher number of total deaths, such as 200.
The following is Italy’s death count from 1 to 200:
1 2 3 7 11 12 17 21 29 41 52 79 107 148 197 (15 days)
The following is the US death count from 1 to 200 (not there yet):
1 6 9 11 12 15 19 22 26 30 38 41 49 57 68 86 109 125 (18 days)
So, it took Italy 15 days to get to 200 deaths, while it took the US 18 days to get to 125.
US deaths per active cases (with the exception of one spike) is lower than Italy’s and declining. Italy’s deaths per active cases continues to increase. Inasmuch as Italy is currently testing more than the US, that’s another encouraging signal.
And those ever increasing numbers are despite the fact that both have not exceeded their hospital's capacity to provide ventilation for extreme patients.
However the critical thing is to look at what is taking people off - i.e., whether people are dying of it, or simply 它。
For example the first 'covid19' death in South Florida a day or so ago, was a 95 year old who died of bacterial pneumonia. He also had heart disease, diabetes and lung disease - all chronic.
So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus 本身: it had to do with a fragile elderly man whose system got one shock more than it could cope with. His unconditional age-sex cohort mortality rate is pretty high (in samples of people with his level of underlying chronic illness, it's over 75%[1]）。
So despite this chap's unfortunate demise, his contribution to the South Florida covid19 death toll was actually zero.
Similarly, a recent 'cluster' of 9 deaths included 7 deaths from stroke, cardiac arrest, and kidney failure, in patients whose underlying conditions included recent histories of stroke, heart attack and kidney disease.
So that's 8 deaths out of 9 - in an overall US dead'uns sample of a hundred or so - which have been attributed to, but are absolutely not caused by or the direct result of, this weak-ass pathogen.
And for this, the political class - globally - is prepared to stop the heart of the economic system, as if it can be turned back on like a light switch.
Do some estimates of the economic loss that will be caused by the 过剩 deaths of the victims: it's literally fuck-all.
让我们说 减-histrionic 小鸡 are correct, and the overall effect is to drop ~0.5% of the 健康 50+ population, Pareto-style - i.e., 20% of the population gets it; 20% of of that gets it bad; 20% of those die.
[因b4: 20% cubed is 0.8%, you monster]
Getting it down to 0.005 from 0.008 is just a back-of-the-envelope approach to excluding chronic health problems - we're only concerned with 健康 50+ people, who are the most productive and whose death contributes disproportionately to system-wide productivity losses. On nett, the chronically-ill are a net drag on output (they divert resources from productive use to 'keep this person alive just because' use).
Anyhow.. 0.5% is almost certainly an order of magnitude too high.
It still results in a big number in person terms (0.005 × 0.34 × 330m = 561,000), but it's fuck-all in terms of output since labour force participation of the 50+ cohort is low (it follows a kind-of Weibull distribution).
It seems like a cold-hearted calculus, but the 'correct' amount to spend on mitigation ought to be the economic loss multiplied by two things:
• a penalty (< 1) to account for the probability that the mitigation works;
• a factor (> 1) to account for the form of Jensen's Inequality used in economics to account for risk-aversion in utility functionals - 见., E(u(μ)) > u(E(μ))
Think of it as the insurance premium required to reduce the death risk of 0.4% of the workforce back to its virus-free level, using a mechanism that is not guaranteed to work.
As with Y2K, terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrism - and all politically-promulgated public hysterias going all the way back to witches - the actual cost imposed for proposed mitigation is at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the actuarially-fair amount.
All based on selective, biased data that is guaranteed to overestimate the costs of doing nothing, and overestimate the benefits (and underestimate the costs) of the proposed policy.
In almost 30 years of analysing policy, that last paragraph has never ever been shown to be a bad premise.
.
[1] Lee et al., "Chronic Conditions and Mortality Among the Oldest Old" 美国公共卫生. 2008 July; 98(7): 1209–1214
回复：@Kratoklastes，@HA
“我们可以把学年延长到暑假”
不是不花一大笔钱。这就是为什么我们假装我们现在可以远程教育孩子们——好吧，与其说是“假装”，不如说是希望能够吸引人。但教师和所有政府工作人员的工资现在将不间断。因此，如果你将学校延长到夏季，你就必须再次向他们付款。不会发生的。
“虽然许多企业可能因封锁而拖欠债务，但唯一可能受到永久严重伤害的美国学生是即将毕业的高中生，他们本学期到目前为止一直在偷懒，但他们会做的只是最后一个学期的后半段足够他们毕业了。 ”
不会。高年级学生不会有什么问题，因为大学会忽略任何差距。被搞砸的群体主要是当今大学的大三学生，紧随其后的是大二学生。大三是大学招生最重要的一年。 GPA——他们必须希望老师慷慨——而慷慨程度可能因社会经济地位和学校而异。低年级学生正在失去参加 SAT 考试的机会，这并不是一件好事，但他们将永远失去今年的 AP 考试。不管你相信与否，正如我认为测试将表明的那样，学校实际上确实传授学习。
在这一点上，很难不同意 Arnold Kling 博客上的人所说的：
“净，我猜这是继承人为了购买医疗服务而负债累累，以拯救退休人员。不要说他们从未为你做过任何事。如果我认为他们明白自己在做什么，我会更加钦佩。”
我的孩子们上学的地方 教师全年领取工资。我相信这是常态。预计要工作 X 个上学天数。
我不知道合同到底写了什么——甚至与政府雇员签订合同都是荒谬的。但无论如何让他们回去工作。我厌倦了听到这些咩咩叫的老师——还有更糟糕的官员——现状。 （对政府就业的抱怨是最底层的。）我认为，如果老师们在这场危机之后不回去工作……如果这是学校董事会的决定的话，这种态度将会蔓延到每个人。他们不想工作——解雇他们。
回复：@education realist
A good example of the issues of testing are the 73 firemen and ems workers in Washington, DC who were potentially exposed. Why have them quarantine for two weeks rather than test them after a couple of days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/73-dc-firefighters-and-first-responders-under-quarantine-union-says/2020/03/18/50106074-6948-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html
What is also shocking is how many people are at higher risk due to recent travel. Did none of those idiots pay attention to the news for the last two months?
回复：@Steve Sailer
Thanks. OK, but that’s something that can be solved. I don’t know how to collect nasal swabs of random people without infecting the sample taker, but somebody out there does. People have thought this through before.
What I'd like to hear people starting to discuss is how we can put capitalism into a dormant state for some amount of time while money stops flowing. How can we keep our institutions in a coma without killing them?
我们看到意大利关于暂停租金的报道。随着大封锁的继续，将就其他什么样的民主安排进行谈判？
I am a prof at a small private college. Refunding room and board for the rest of the year blows a huge hole in our budget that won't be filled. Do we lay off now in anticipation of a small incoming class in the Fall, or cut salaries deeply immediately?
必要行业与非必要行业将会产生巨大的差异性后果。我们如何保持非必要机构的活力？餐饮、教育、娱乐、旅游、服务。难道每个人都拿半薪四个月才能让机构陷入昏迷吗？
回覆：@Steve Sailer，@ vhrm
有人提议在 19 年 2019 月 XNUMX 日左右停止时钟：
If random tests are carried out, I don’t know what will be the data; but since this is America and it’s 2020, I do know what will be the narrative (and, as you know, narrative trumps data):
First, the people with the megaphone will not be interested in test results, but in who is tested…
If the megaphone-holders find out minorities are not properly proportionally represented in the sample sizes, the narrative will be racist Donald Katrina Trump doesn’t care about their welfare and health, homophobic Donald AIDS Trump wants them to just die off, trannies invisible-ized by Donald Military Ban Trump etc etc etc….
But if the megaphone-holders find out minorities are over-represented, the narrative will be racist Donald Stop and Frisk Trump, racist Donald Baltimore Rats Trump, etc etc etc etc…..
Disparate impact either way baby. Reach for your lawyers.
OK. But then you spend more money to pay testers in ornery Compton than you spend in cooperative Valley Village.
我们可以完成这个。
Replies: @Hemid, @BenKenobi
First, the people with the megaphone will not be interested in test results, but in who is tested...
If the megaphone-holders find out minorities are not properly proportionally represented in the sample sizes, the narrative will be racist Donald Katrina Trump doesn't care about their welfare and health, homophobic Donald AIDS Trump wants them to just die off, trannies invisible-ized by Donald Military Ban Trump etc etc etc....
But if the megaphone-holders find out minorities are over-represented, the narrative will be racist Donald Stop and Frisk Trump, racist Donald Baltimore Rats Trump, etc etc etc etc.....
Disparate impact either way baby. Reach for your lawyers.
回复：@Steve Sailer
OK. But then you spend more money to pay testers in ornery Compton than you spend in cooperative Valley Village.
我们可以完成这个。
Nerd competence and logical gotchas have no power here, Stevestarcodex.
"We" have BPD, not autism. We can't do 任何东西。
We can punch ourselves and show our black eye on Instagram and refuse to say what happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22l3qMN1XOk
Politicians are all rushing to emulate China, and ignoring what happened in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea as well as Japan.
The chinese did what they did because 1) they can; 2) they wanted to show party over everything else; and 3) they had 450 million people moving around due to the holidays.
The madness we are driving into will kill millions more than a virus.
Using number of deaths per day, the US is well behind Italy, although some experts contend that we won't know for sure until the US reaches a higher number of total deaths, such as 200.
The following is Italy’s death count from 1 to 200:
1 2 3 7 11 12 17 21 29 41 52 79 107 148 197 (15 days)
The following is the US death count from 1 to 200 (not there yet):
1 6 9 11 12 15 19 22 26 30 38 41 49 57 68 86 109 125 (18 days)
So, it took Italy 15 days to get to 200 deaths, while it took the US 18 days to get to 125.
US deaths per active cases (with the exception of one spike) is lower than Italy’s and declining. Italy’s deaths per active cases continues to increase. Inasmuch as Italy is currently testing more than the US, that’s another encouraging signal.
回复：@ThreeCranes、@Kratoklastes
And those ever increasing numbers are despite the fact that both have not exceeded their hospital’s capacity to provide ventilation for extreme patients.
The Diamond Princess is unique in that we know the start date, number of people, their ages and outcomes under optimum conditions. Leaves Yokohama on January 20 with about 3700 passengers and crew.
3700 people, 2666 passengers ( half over age 70) and 1045 crew return on February 3rd. Ship notified on January 30 that a sole passenger who disembarked on January 25 in Hong Kong for medical reasons had been infected with the virus. Curiously, 13 passengers and crew disembark during a sightseeing stop in Okinawa on February 1 and fly home. Sometime between February 1 and 3 passengers are confined to cabins. Quarantine continues once reaching Yokohama. Daily medical examinations of those aboard begin February 4. Those testing positive are removed and hospitalized.
This is the gold standard for medical screening and treatment. Cannot be replicated anywhere else.
What have we learned? 20% became infected (715), 7 have died with 15 still in serious condition. This is the most valuable data we will ever get on Covid-19 and, because the passengers and crew received the most intensive screening and best medical treatment it is possible to deliver, the optimum outcome. Its all downhill, save for age distribution, in the real world.
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
Replies: @HA, @LondonBob, @unit472, @George
The media, etc has stopped reporting on the non recovered. The last data I saw was from March 3, with 35 seriously ill. It's a good data set and it should be finished (with final totals of dead/recovered) and re validated number and ages of passengers and crew. There was some question of whether the crew was in the age distribution figures.
I don't think it is all down hill. If hospitals become overwhelmed, which I doubt will happen in the US as in that region in Italy, then mortality among those in danger goes up. On the other hand the US is not a cruise ship with tight quarters and recirculating air and buffets and activities. As the season goes on new cases will likely drop unless this is the one mutant respiratory virus that has a summer workaround. As the virus spreads it mutates. If it becomes deadlier transmission goes down. If it becomes less severe transmission goes up.
7 out of 3700 died and 15 in serious condition is not at all scary. If this were before social media and rapid viral genome sequencing days the pubic and politicians would barely have noticed. The president would fall asleep during his CDC briefing on it. Then doctors across the nation would be telling each other "wow, bad flu season, right?"
我知道我们需要在病例/感染方面了解更多。 但是我们现在不知道，或者至少可以访问死亡数据吗？ 当然，如果没有一个好的分母，我们就无法知道死亡率。 但是，如果世界范围内死亡的年龄分布与中国的经验相似，那难道这不能告诉我们一些有用的信息吗？
3700 people, 2666 passengers ( half over age 70) and 1045 crew return on February 3rd. Ship notified on January 30 that a sole passenger who disembarked on January 25 in Hong Kong for medical reasons had been infected with the virus. Curiously, 13 passengers and crew disembark during a sightseeing stop in Okinawa on February 1 and fly home. Sometime between February 1 and 3 passengers are confined to cabins. Quarantine continues once reaching Yokohama. Daily medical examinations of those aboard begin February 4. Those testing positive are removed and hospitalized.
This is the gold standard for medical screening and treatment. Cannot be replicated anywhere else.
What have we learned? 20% became infected (715), 7 have died with 15 still in serious condition. This is the most valuable data we will ever get on Covid-19 and, because the passengers and crew received the most intensive screening and best medical treatment it is possible to deliver, the optimum outcome. Its all downhill, save for age distribution, in the real world.
Replies: @Steve Sailer, @anon, @Erik L
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
"What about the San Francisco cruise ship?"
Also, won't there already be several strains of this thing going around by now, given how fast coronaviruses mutate?
Generally, viruses tend to evolve in a milder direction, given that more severe strains are typically easier to recognize and isolate. (Yes, the "extra-sneaky-extra-smart" variants that have especially long or calm periods of asymptomatic transmission also don't get weeded out, and therefore are also selected for, but they are rarer to begin with.)
Do we know yet whether the Diamond Princess strain was more or less lethal than the others?
Lastly, while it may be unlikely that the US will turn into Italy, I'm guessing parts of the US -- especially those where diabetes/smoking/obesity/meth/etc. are rampant, but also perhaps a few unlucky upper-crust areas with lots of jetsetting skiers -- might become just as bad. At least, there's a significant probability that that happens. And I'm not sure that Utah will look kindly should Colorado attempt to export its excess coronavirus caseload there, so Colorado (or wherever) will be in a real jam.
San Francisco cruise ship?
https://youtu.be/RkN71nb3GEg
https://sfist.com/2020/03/19/many-grand-princess-passengers-refused-covid-19-tests/
Like I said Diamond Princess situation not replicable.
钻石公主
总712
死了7
回收 527
活跃的178
严重14的
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Good bit just after.
That is a key point about not obviously ill people spreading it. It was made in Sean Carroll's podcast with Tara Smith yesterday. I found it helpful that she is not a virus expert, because it helps to listen to someone who has to think a little when she is talking about details such as RNA viruses like influenza mutating, DNA ones like measles remaining the the same, and coronavirus being in the middle. Interesting about droplets too.Still, if you would walk along behind someone who is smoking you can see it clouds that you can avoid and yet still smell it as you walk through a dissipated fringe that is invisible.回复：@Jack D
https://twitter.com/amy_harmon/status/1243282853716275206
https://twitter.com/amy_harmon/status/1243282859084910592
艾米·哈蒙 转推了：
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1241399938837131269
史蒂夫对康普顿的评论提醒我，我们不常听到的一个词是黑色。由于个人电脑和“避免耻辱”等可预见的原因，除了年龄之外，我们获得的人口统计信息非常少。如果事实证明东亚血统的人比欧洲人、南亚人和中东人更容易受到影响，而撒哈拉以南非洲黑人是最不容易受影响的呢？我们永远不会知道是否存在种族差异，因为我们不能相信我们会知道这种数据。就像 1980 世纪 50 年代我们不得不假装 25 岁的郊区白人女性感染艾滋病毒的风险与旧金山 XNUMX 岁的同性恋海洛因使用者相同。
我们所知道的是，在武汉、伦巴第和库姆的三大疫情爆发中，最近去过武汉的中国人人数较多。我们不知道中国人在意大利病例和死亡人数中所占的比例是多少。或者美国的案例。
丹麦首批 4 名死亡者之一是一名 62 岁的非洲人，他的非洲名字叫 Kwabena Sarfo-Maanu。去年 XNUMX 月，他的心脏和肺部出现血栓，随后出现心脏骤停和（人工？）昏迷。在昏迷期间，他感染了肺炎。当他感染病毒时，他刚刚康复。
他是死于病毒吗？很难说，真的。但他绝对是非洲人。他年轻时从加纳的军事独裁统治逃到丹麦，因为他有关系：他的兄弟是加纳驻丹麦大使。
这里的第一例死亡是一名患有心脏病的 80 岁男子。他死于心脏病。他是死于病毒吗？或许。也许不会。
回复：@Kratoklastes
My dad is 84 and in the last decade he has had lower bowel cancer, a knee replacement, developed Type II diabetes, and paid for extensive dental work. He had a minor stroke type event a couple of years ago after doing a DIY task (though that a week was after he collapsed drunk in the street and lay in the pouring rain after a night out with his pal). He’s fine, drives and plays bowls most mornings and watches his firestick equipped big telly in his big front room. My mum (hustled the cancer operation forward considerably for my dad with phone calls) is 80 and so far has had nothing much except 4 children, she goes walking for several miles with her rambling group and was one of the few at church the other day. But then her mother was almost a centenarian when she passed away.
If older people suddenly die off the hospitals will have to close for twenty years and MDs become cab drivers, because medical professionals will have lost 99 % of their regular bread and butter patients and be unable to feed their families doing what they trained for. Young people will not go into the profession. Germany has the oldest population in Europe, and as a result the best medical services, which came in handy already, and surely will again. So you see the elderly are performing a vital function in keeping a society’s health services topped up and under pressure to grow. It isn’t good to be too lean and punch about your weight, so to speak, because efficiency is to a stipulated end and thus one dimensional and when unexpected demands pop op you don’t have uncommitted reserves handy.
The financial asset stripping and offshoring/deindustrialization of Western productive capacity, so that when huge numbers of masks are suddenly needed we cannot make them fast enough, is why countries like Germany with their far less 放任主义 outlook are like fat individuals who survive catastrophe, while the apparently fit ones find they are dangerously low on resources to call on. Of course if someone like Hitler gets control of this latent strength and exerts it to one end, it is bad news. By the way, it was a good thing that young men were hardest hit in 1918, it stopped Germany winning WW1.
Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Travis, @Jack D, @Elli
失去患病最严重的 20% 人口？
这个结果的术语就是经济奇迹！
每个人都指着CFR说这东西有多“致命”……但我们不知道有多少人真正拥有它。
鉴于唯一接受测试的人是那些已经生病或已经接触过另一次阳性测试的人，选择偏差是惊人的。
我们不知道这种情况有多普遍，因此我们也不知道这到底有多危险，但我们却出于“谨慎”而破坏了经济和人们的生活。
这是荒唐的。
只有当我们无法向世界其他地方学习时，情况才会如此。他们在中国和韩国寻找接触者之外的病例……进行了数百万次检测。他们没有发现很多完全无症状的病例。一个合理的数字可能是感染人数的两倍或三倍。 10 倍或 100 倍（真正的无汉堡）是不合理的。这是一种与SARS非常相似的新型人畜共患病。 IFR 可能低于 1%，但也不会低很多。我们并不知道一切，但我们知道，如果不采取激烈行动，这种情况将席卷大部分人口并导致医院崩溃。我们需要技术对策（检测、单克隆抗体）来尽快恢复正常生活。
Steve, I know you’re rich beyond your wildest dreams of avarice
From raking in donations from your fanboys
And the rich are more susceptible to catching coronavirus,
So take this good suggestion if you can, boy …
He dies a thousand deaths before the real one does the coward—
Not a doctor, sure as hell I ain’t a nurse—
But I advise be heedless till you’re covered with a flowered
Wreath inside the rectum of a hearse.
How does Ioannidis not know about the best sample so far? The Chinese tested 320,000(!) people at fever clinics in Guangdong, one of the heavier affected provinces. Only .15 percent of *生病的* people were positive. Remember a quick and dirty diagnostic test will have a false positive rate so even that might be an overestimate. That’s why the WHO team is confident they are picking up most cases by brute force contact tracing. There’s no evidence for the tip of the asymptomatic iceberg theory.
Outside observers seem quite confident in China’s data. They have been crushing their economy for a reason.
If nothing else Iran is a stark warning for the perils of just letting it rip. There are videos of people collapsing in the street. MEK, the best organized opposition group, reported 2,500 deaths already in Qom on Sunday.
https://english.mojahedin.org/i/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-news-20200317
回覆：@UK
I personally would not agree to be tested for a random sample. I don’t give blood either, nor will I answer political pollster’s questions, nor sign any petition, whether or not I agree with it. I’m funny that way. What’s in it for me? There are some of us around, which borks the randomness.
Anyway, for a reasonably random sample for a country with the number of adults in the U.S. you need about 7,500 samples, chosen by zip code correlated with census demographic data, done within a fairly short period of time. And you need no more than 5 percent refusals. Ain’t gonna happen. Pre-cell phone, land line RDD phone surveys by name brand pollsters could achieve this level of accuracy in polls. But in-person medical tests by a government so many distrust?
测试施密斯特。我完全赞成对公共卫生威胁采取合理的预防和治疗措施。冠状病毒®不是这样的东西。真实的测试会揭示这一点，因此史蒂夫所描述的真实测试将不会被允许。
回复：@UK、@gate666、@野雁霍华德
Omg. It isn’t a hoax, it is a panic. Those who truck in such conspiracy theories are Dunning-Krugering it. They think that if they were in charge they would never mess things up as badly as the response to this virus has been messed up. They are too ignorant and stupid to even begin to release how complicated a problem this and others are.
UK, It is a panic over a hoax. A hoax being used on purpose, for nefarious reasons by our corporate and governmental (but I repeat myself) rulers. This is a scam, a huge theft, an embezzlement, the biggest sting in the world, use any metaphor you like. What it is NOT is an uncommon lot of people dying from a virus that is going around.
I would not do better if I were in charge, because I would never be associated with a global scam like this. I am a working class stiff and am reasonably honest, not given to theft or envy. The reaction to this small time virus has been to purposefully lie, prevaricate, obfuscate, and frighten, not to protect public health. The people that are participating in this scam better hope and pray that people like me stay small in number, or their days may be small in number. It is only a hoax, but it is damnably effective, thus far.
回覆：@UK
Not without paying a shit ton of money. That's why we're pretending that we can educate the kids remotely now--well, not "pretending" so much as hopefully engaging. But teachers and all government workers will be paid without interruption now. So if you extend school into summer, you have to pay them again. Ain't gonna happen.
"While a lot of businesses are likely to default on debts due to lockdowns, the only U.S. students likely to be permanently greatly hurt are high school seniors on the verge of not graduating who have been slacking off so far this semester but who would do just enough in the second half of their final semester to graduate. "
No. Seniors will be fine because colleges will overlook any gaps. The screwed groups are todays college bound juniors, most of all, with sophomores close behind. Junior year is the most important year for college admissions. GPA--they have to hope that teachers are generous--and generosity may vary by SES and school. Juniors are losing opportunities to take the SAT, which isn't great, but they are permanently losing this years AP tests. And believe it or not, as I think tests will show, schools actually do impart learning.
At this point, it's hard to disagree with the guy at Arnold Kling's blog who said:
"Net, I guess this is the heirs going into debt to buy medical care to save the retired. Don’t say they never did anything for you. If I thought they understood what they were doing, I could admire it more."
回复：@AnotherDad
Hell no you don’t.
我的孩子们上学的地方 教师全年领取工资. I believe that’s the norm. And expected to work X number of school days.
I have no idea what exactly the contracts say–it’s ridiculous to even have contracts with government employees. But regardless send them back to work. I’m sick of hearing these bleating teachers–and worse apparatchiks–as is. (Whining about cushy government employment is the bottom.) And i think that attitude will spread to everyone if the teachers don’t get their asses back to work in the wake of this crisis … if that’s what school boards decide. They don’t want to work–fire ’em.
"Where my kids went to school, the teachers are paid year round. I believe that’s the norm. And expected to work X number of school days."
他们在 X 个上学日领取工资，并且可以选择付款方式。
根据法律，大多数州在发生大流行时向教师支付工资。因此，唯一的选择是付钱让他们尝试远程教孩子，或者付钱让他们坐在家里，然后再付钱让他们在暑假工作。
Besides, it's not just teachers--it's custodial staff, nurses, attendance clerks, and everything else. Federal workers, too. We all get paid.
回复：@George、@Sideshow Bob、@Hypnotoad666
One way to get a random-ish sample, famous people. It seems people are issuing press releases when they get a positive test. For example Mr and Mrs Hanks seem to have contracted the disease but are not suffering in any way.
Conspiracy theorists will enjoy this, Wikipedia deleted the running list of notable people who got coronavirus positive tests with no discussion permitted. Does the NWO fear people will see coronavirus is not that big a deal?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Deletion_review/Log/2020_March_19#List_of_people_with_coronavirus_disease_2019
Standard sampling plans are readily available if there is a will to implement them. True random sampling can give an accurate assessment of a large quantity based on a relatively small sample size.
Are there any figures available which compares the average number of deaths in a given population during this epidemic cmpared with the same period last year in order to determine the contribution of this virus to currenty reported death rates?
OK. But then you spend more money to pay testers in ornery Compton than you spend in cooperative Valley Village.
我们可以完成这个。
Replies: @Hemid, @BenKenobi
Nerd competence and logical gotchas have no power here, Stevestarcodex.
“We” have BPD, not autism. We can’t do 任何东西。
We can punch ourselves and show our black eye on Instagram and refuse to say what happened.
Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Travis, @Jack D, @Elli
this is why those over the age of 70 will not receive treatment, just as in Italy those who are over the age of 65 are denied treatment today…They will withhold treatment of the obese who are over the age of 40, because a 40 year-old obese man will have the same survivability of a 70 year old healthy male.
老年人将无法获得呼吸机，因为即使我们让他们使用呼吸机，他们的生存可能性也较小。最好把医院的床位留给那些存活率大于50%的人。大多数戴上呼吸机的老人（60%-80%）都会在几天内死亡，那为什么要把我们的资源浪费在他们身上呢？
通风并不是一种愉快的经历。我父亲51岁得肺炎时被戴上呼吸机。经历过这次经历后，他告诉家人让他死吧，下次得肺炎时不要送他去医院。由于拒绝再次使用呼吸机，他于 60 岁时死于肺炎。
Maybe we could/should look into some modern day iron lungs. They're not good if your doing surgery, but probably a heck of a lot more comfortable than having a plastic tube down your throat inflating you like a balloon if all you need is breathing support.
(note: i haven't researched if this is feasible for covid-19 sufferers, but seems like it would be)
回复：@James Forrestal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Interesting data from Italy, is this an efficient killer of just the elderly and poorly, and no one else, or is it just an efficient killer of the poorly, most of whom are elderly?
“For example, Italy has a high death rate while, so far, Germany has a low death rate. Is that due to actual differences or due to methodological differences in how numbers are reported? “
It’s cultural. In the end we will realize the more stoic Northern European cultures already practice social distancing. Shy Finnish people will survive in tact.
At the end of this debacle we will realize it was spread more easily in cultures that live on top of one another, eat Sunday dinner together, live multi-generationally in one abode together, and who greet each other more frequently with hugs, kisses, being in one another’s personal space.
Germans, Irish and Cold Climate folks with dysfunctional families will have much lower mortality rates.
https://twitter.com/amy_harmon/status/1240302602606215169
回复：@Sean、@MEH 0910
Good bit just after.
That is a key point about not obviously ill people spreading it. It was made in Sean Carroll’s podcast with Tara Smith yesterday. I found it helpful that she is not a virus expert, because it helps to listen to someone who has to think a little when she is talking about details such as RNA viruses like influenza mutating, DNA ones like measles remaining the the same, and coronavirus being in the middle. Interesting about droplets too.
Still, if you would walk along behind someone who is smoking you can see it clouds that you can avoid and yet still smell it as you walk through a dissipated fringe that is invisible.
While it is not statistically or physically impossible to get Chinese Virus from the air or from touching your mail, etc. that is not the most likely route of transmission. In most cases, victims have been in close proximity with someone who has the virus. It's like getting VD from a toilet seat - maybe you can hypothetically get it that way but most people get it the old fashioned way. If you get sidetracked worrying about the remote risks you won't concentrate on the big risks, which is where you should really focus your efforts. Which for now should be to stay 6 feet away from everyone who is not in isolation with you, regular hand washing, no face touching, etc.
回复：@Jack D、@Je Suis Omar Mateen
Ironically, tanking the economy is good for public health in general and not just old people. People drive less – fewer auto accidents. Industry is shut down – less air pollution. People have less money to spend on drugs and alcohol and fattening food. Etc.
Now this doesn’t mean that we should tank the economy but the idea that has taken hold that what we are doing will only benefit Boomers is wrong. Now Boomers may be selfish but the glee I have seen from some at the thought that they are all going to die is unseemly. This shows the danger of dismissing any group – you go quickly and seamlessly from “OK, Boomer” to “Die, Boomer, Die!”. This goes with the idea that (especially older) whites, especially men, are the only group that it is OK to publicly hate on. If this plague was especially striking blacks, no one would dare say, “Let’s not tank the whole economy to help the 13% of the population that is black.”
The corona virus will probably be gone back to virus land within a few weeks, but what does this bode for the future? If health trumps everything, does that mean the end of the whole idea of growing the economy?
I've seen that Boomer talk and it's very weird and (surprise!) innumerate. The US death toll will be concentrated in Silents (~1927-1945), not Boomers (1946-1964). In fact, the dwindling WW2 aka Greatest Generation will be the hardest hit proportionately, though their sheer numbers of deaths can't be huge. Still, people in the 90s and above (oldest Silents plus remaining Greatest) are accounting for significant gross numbers of US deaths, not just higher percents.
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
Steve, personal question here. Did your cancer treatments leave you with a weakened immune system?
I tend to side with Ioannidis.
I have had a career in health care and health care administration and have plenty of health care professionals in my family, for what it is worth.
There is no doubt in my mind that putting the whole of the US in quarantine and shutting down every place where people meet other people will probably slow the spread of the virus, but the question is all about whether the cure is worse than the disease.
In any herd of wildebeest, the cattle that are carried off and eaten by the lions are the weak, the sick, and those least able to mount resistance. Viruses, like lions, tend to pick on the vulnerable, particularly those who are likely to die soon from other causes. Hence if you are very old, weak, have poorly functioning lungs, are on oxygen, have COPD, are on kidney dialysis, are bedridden, wheelchair-bound, are a cigarette smoker, or have any combination of these, the corona virus is more likely to kill you before the saber-toothed tigers pick your carcass off the forest floor.
How much sacrifice the young and the healthy should make to prolong the life of the elderly and the sick is a moot point.
Americans are a superstitious and conformist people and are easily influenced, but what we need is mature, well-informed, responsible adults making decisions based on the best information and research, not the rantings of congressional clowns in the three-ring-circus of Washington.
Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was. The liquidation of the 11-year Everything Bubble had to happen at some point. The virus was the pin that pricked the bubble, but the absolute disproportionate insanity of the response is all due to the internal dynamics of our societal dysfunction. We have an extremely artificial economy that is levered to the hilt, fragile global supply chains, incompetent leadership, an unruly and restive population of unproductive moochers, zombie corporations, and the eldering Boomers as the pig in the demographic python. This situation was certain to blow up.
We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn't even done anything remotely devastating yet. We can't keep doing Free Introduction every time a new respiratory infection is making the rounds; there just isn't that much cushion left in the system. When the millions of furloughed waitresses and bartenders can't pay their rent or buy groceries, there will be enormous pressure to put a stop to all the otiose emergency theater. Nobody really cares if a few thousand 80-year-olds die now of corona instead of a year or two from now of something else. The few lives saved thus far have been literally purchased at the cost of billions of dollars apiece, and that is manifestly not fair. Remember, the Millennials are the generation the grew up playing 光环. You old folks had better hope that they don't just decide to "activate the rings" and stop the pathogen by destroying its hosts.
What I find most depressing at the moment is the companies that are benefitting from the emergency theater. Amazon, because people cannot find basic necessities at stores and do not want to shop anyway; Uber, because restaurants are closed and drivers are carrying out meals; Netflix, because people are shut in with nothing to do and want to watch the tube. These companies were the very worst of the exploitative, wealth-extracting, rentseeking scumbags during the boom times and now they are enjoying an Indian summer of revenue in the opening phases of the decline, bolstered by hideously low oil prices and buoyed by the non-realisation on the part of the multitude that the good times aren't coming back.
The American century is over. This is it. It will take a decade and a half to play out and by the time the decline is over everything we've taken for granted in the post-war era will seem like ancient history. Take a picture, for you will not see its like again.
Replies: @Corvinus, @Jonathan Mason, @MikeatMikedotMike
If we assume that the virus will cull mostly those who are old and sick, then after this is over, the remaining population should be younger and more healthy and life expectancy will actually go up after a temporary blip and then settle back down after the time when those who died too soon would have died anyway. What the virus is mostly doing is moving up (by a relatively few years) the expiration date of people who were going to expire pretty soon anyway.
BUT if the person in question is you or a friend or a family member, the thought of having your meter run out early is not a pleasant one. Maybe you have a good 5 or 10 years of cruising or playing bridge at the retirement community left in you despite your age and conditions. Maybe longer - God only knows. Modern medicine is pretty good at prolonging life when it comes to known diseases. Yesterday I saw an ad for a local retirement community in which they featured a guy who was 102 and who had had a career writing advertising jingles - he wrote the "Good and Plenty" song. Now he formed a jazz band from among the other seniors and he writes songs for it. He seemed like he was enjoying his life as much as people who are a lot younger.
We are taught that every human life is sacred. If there are reasonable and temporary public health measures that will prevent millions or even thousands of our fellow citizens from being carried off early, we should take them. It's all a question of line drawing. Suppose I told you that if everyone stayed home for one day, 60 million lives could be saved? You'd do that, right? Now if I told you that if we shut down our entire economy, one old geezer would live another six weeks, you'd say no, not worth it. What we have is somewhere in between and we are going to have to feel our way into a reasonable cost/benefit balance. This is admittedly hard to do in a panic/ ghouls trying to seek political advantage out of tragedy situation.
回复：@乔纳森·梅森，@本·蒂尔曼
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Kratoklastes, @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt
随机测试是一个显而易见的想法，如果中国人没有这样做，我会感到震惊。所以其他地方可能也已经这样做了。但这并不一定意味着公众能够看到结果（无论出于何种原因）。
具有讽刺意味的是，经济低迷对整个公众健康有益，而不仅仅是老年人。人们开车更少——车祸更少。工业关闭——空气污染减少。人们花在毒品、酒精和致胖食品上的钱越来越少。 ETC。
现在，这并不意味着我们应该让经济陷入困境，但我们正在做的事情只会让婴儿潮一代受益的想法是错误的。现在，婴儿潮一代可能很自私，但我从一些人身上看到，他们一想到他们都会死去，就感到高兴，这是不体面的。这显示了解雇任何群体的危险 - 你会快速而无缝地从“好吧，婴儿潮一代”到“死吧，婴儿潮一代，死吧！”。这与这样一种观点相一致：白人（尤其是老年白人），尤其是男性，是唯一可以公开仇恨的群体。如果这场瘟疫对黑人尤其严重，那么没有人敢说：“我们不要为了帮助 13% 的黑人而让整个经济陷入困境。”
回复：@Jonathan Mason、@Patrick Sullivan、@Robert Dolan
E-X-A-C-T-L-Y !!!
The corona virus will probably be gone back to virus land within a few weeks, but what does this bode for the future? If health trumps everything, does that mean the end of the whole idea of growing the economy?
我们关于季节性流感的统计数据有多准确？有随机测试吗？
我们不断听到有关流感传播和死亡率的数据，但我们在流感统计数据方面也遇到了与 CoVid-19 类似的问题。唯一接受检查的是那些病情严重到需要去看医生的人。即使这样，他们也不总是进行测试。
例如，我 认为 我2018年得过流感。所有症状。我通过电话与我的医生交谈。他说这是 大概 流感。不过没有测试。
我的医生是否将我的病例信息转发给疾病预防控制中心，导致该季节的流感病例数增加一例？或者考虑到某种概率时的某个分数？我不这么认为。
Good bit just after.
That is a key point about not obviously ill people spreading it. It was made in Sean Carroll's podcast with Tara Smith yesterday. I found it helpful that she is not a virus expert, because it helps to listen to someone who has to think a little when she is talking about details such as RNA viruses like influenza mutating, DNA ones like measles remaining the the same, and coronavirus being in the middle. Interesting about droplets too.Still, if you would walk along behind someone who is smoking you can see it clouds that you can avoid and yet still smell it as you walk through a dissipated fringe that is invisible.回复：@Jack D
While it is not statistically or physically impossible to get Chinese Virus from the air or from touching your mail, etc. that is not the most likely route of transmission. In most cases, victims have been in close proximity with someone who has the virus. It’s like getting VD from a toilet seat – maybe you can hypothetically get it that way but most people get it the old fashioned way. If you get sidetracked worrying about the remote risks you won’t concentrate on the big risks, which is where you should really focus your efforts. Which for now should be to stay 6 feet away from everyone who is not in isolation with you, regular hand washing, no face touching, etc.
https://twitter.com/aiellotv/status/1240598233535205376?s=21
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/cannot-survive-las-vegas-mayor-asks-governor-to-shorten-business-shutdown-1984653/
Replies: @Smithsonian, @El Dato, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Prosa123
Close Las Vegas. 15kT should do it.
Exactly right. But I mentioned this to my mom a couple days ago (my random sample in that proposal would have been schoolteachers), and she reacted as if the idea were crazy.
But so what? we sample and find... hundreds of thousands have it? and we do what with that info? try to tell people "see? we've got the denominator wrong, go back to work?"
that IS NOT what will happen. What will happen is it will be used to put every town on lockdown.
better would be to ramp up Antibodies tests who has already had it, and let them get back to their lives.
At this time, this is an interesting thought experiment since tests are available only for those reliably sick. By the time, the test infrastructure is geared up for on demand test for anyone (i.e. “wasting” precious test kit/bandwidth on likely non-infected), we are likely to be near or past the peak (blue curve with luck, red without). At that point, the data will be useful mainly for research rather than policy.
你怎么看？
So if the data tended to support your own personal beliefs of the widespread severity of the virus (because it doesn’t) – would you hold this same skepticism? I seriously doubt it.
Good luck getting the teachers’ unions on board with that. And even though it is a more trivial matter, people with school aged children probably aren’t feeling as nonchalant about extending the school year into the summer months for obvious reasons.
At least tens of thousands of people are currently out of work and not getting paid in Illinois alone. Those people and the mom and pop shops that employ them are going to lose their livelihoods.
.
This would have been a good idea before bringing the nation’s economy to a halt.
Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Travis, @Jack D, @Elli
Sure if this was going to kill 20% of the population it would be really bad. But 20% of those infected needing hospitalization is a long way from 20% of the population dying. In order for that to be true, you would need a whole bunch of assumptions that are obviously wrong – 100% of the population being infected, zero hospital beds being available, 100% of those requiring hospitalization dying unless they get it, and so on.
即使是绝对最坏的情况（我们很可能会远远达不到这种情况），美国的死亡人数也只有数百万而不是数千万。
具有讽刺意味的是，经济低迷对整个公众健康有益，而不仅仅是老年人。人们开车更少——车祸更少。工业关闭——空气污染减少。人们花在毒品、酒精和致胖食品上的钱越来越少。 ETC。
现在，这并不意味着我们应该让经济陷入困境，但我们正在做的事情只会让婴儿潮一代受益的想法是错误的。现在，婴儿潮一代可能很自私，但我从一些人身上看到，他们一想到他们都会死去，就感到高兴，这是不体面的。这显示了解雇任何群体的危险 - 你会快速而无缝地从“好吧，婴儿潮一代”到“死吧，婴儿潮一代，死吧！”。这与这样一种观点相一致：白人（尤其是老年白人），尤其是男性，是唯一可以公开仇恨的群体。如果这场瘟疫对黑人尤其严重，那么没有人敢说：“我们不要为了帮助 13% 的黑人而让整个经济陷入困境。”
回复：@Jonathan Mason、@Patrick Sullivan、@Robert Dolan
我看过婴儿潮一代的讲话，非常奇怪而且（惊讶！） 数不胜数。美国的死亡人数将集中在沉默时期（~1927-1945），而不是婴儿潮一代（1946-1964）。事实上，二战中日益减少的“最伟大的一代”将受到相应的最严重打击，尽管他们的死亡人数不会很多。尽管如此，2 多岁及以上的人（最年长的沉默者加上仍然最伟大的人）在美国死亡总人数中所占的比例很大，而不仅仅是更高的百分比。
That NYT hed — “Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting?” is what jumps out at me. I don’t think it’s been taboo at all, it’s precisely what many rank-and-file people have been discussing. While the media is busy asking “Are We All Going to Die?” and “How Can We Pin This on Trump?” after ignoring the threat until the impeachment farce was dead and buried
https://twitter.com/aiellotv/status/1240598233535205376?s=21
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/cannot-survive-las-vegas-mayor-asks-governor-to-shorten-business-shutdown-1984653/
Replies: @Smithsonian, @El Dato, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Prosa123
不确定是他、她还是他们，但弗农山市长有高度维护头发和指甲的需求。 沙龙必须保持开放！
不要抱怨没有 Kung Fluey，或者“Shawyn”会要求备份：
https://www.unz.com/isteve/police-commissioner-outlaw-inlaws-her-favorite-nail-polish-in-opening-salvo-of-world-war-nails/#comment-3718245
“哟声音的丙酮让我感到惊讶”！ 你以为自己是角质层吗？ 我不会被任何废话所吸引！”
数以千计的澳大利亚人从日本逃往WW2@马来西亚。 中国人打响指就能把澳大利亚劈成两半
The tranny in that top picture reminds me that there is one upside to this current donnybrook: Drag Queen Story hour is canceled.
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
Replies: @HA, @LondonBob, @unit472, @George
“What about the San Francisco cruise ship?”
Also, won’t there already be several strains of this thing going around by now, given how fast coronaviruses mutate?
Generally, viruses tend to evolve in a milder direction, given that more severe strains are typically easier to recognize and isolate. (Yes, the “extra-sneaky-extra-smart” variants that have especially long or calm periods of asymptomatic transmission also don’t get weeded out, and therefore are also selected for, but they are rarer to begin with.)
Do we know yet whether the Diamond Princess strain was more or less lethal than the others?
Lastly, while it may be unlikely that the US will turn into Italy, I’m guessing parts of the US — especially those where diabetes/smoking/obesity/meth/etc. are rampant, but also perhaps a few unlucky upper-crust areas with lots of jetsetting skiers — might become just as bad. At least, there’s a significant probability that that happens. And I’m not sure that Utah will look kindly should Colorado attempt to export its excess coronavirus caseload there, so Colorado (or wherever) will be in a real jam.
回复：@Alice
But so what? we sample and find… hundreds of thousands have it? and we do what with that info? try to tell people “see? we’ve got the denominator wrong, go back to work?”
that IS NOT what will happen. What will happen is it will be used to put every town on lockdown.
better would be to ramp up Antibodies tests who has already had it, and let them get back to their lives.
I have had a career in health care and health care administration and have plenty of health care professionals in my family, for what it is worth.
There is no doubt in my mind that putting the whole of the US in quarantine and shutting down every place where people meet other people will probably slow the spread of the virus, but the question is all about whether the cure is worse than the disease.
In any herd of wildebeest, the cattle that are carried off and eaten by the lions are the weak, the sick, and those least able to mount resistance. Viruses, like lions, tend to pick on the vulnerable, particularly those who are likely to die soon from other causes. Hence if you are very old, weak, have poorly functioning lungs, are on oxygen, have COPD, are on kidney dialysis, are bedridden, wheelchair-bound, are a cigarette smoker, or have any combination of these, the corona virus is more likely to kill you before the saber-toothed tigers pick your carcass off the forest floor.
How much sacrifice the young and the healthy should make to prolong the life of the elderly and the sick is a moot point.
Americans are a superstitious and conformist people and are easily influenced, but what we need is mature, well-informed, responsible adults making decisions based on the best information and research, not the rantings of congressional clowns in the three-ring-circus of Washington.
Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jack D, @128
Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was. The liquidation of the 11-year Everything Bubble had to happen at some point. The virus was the pin that pricked the bubble, but the absolute disproportionate insanity of the response is all due to the internal dynamics of our societal dysfunction. We have an extremely artificial economy that is levered to the hilt, fragile global supply chains, incompetent leadership, an unruly and restive population of unproductive moochers, zombie corporations, and the eldering Boomers as the pig in the demographic python. This situation was certain to blow up.
We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn’t even done anything remotely devastating yet. We can’t keep doing Free Introduction every time a new respiratory infection is making the rounds; there just isn’t that much cushion left in the system. When the millions of furloughed waitresses and bartenders can’t pay their rent or buy groceries, there will be enormous pressure to put a stop to all the otiose emergency theater. Nobody really cares if a few thousand 80-year-olds die now of corona instead of a year or two from now of something else. The few lives saved thus far have been literally purchased at the cost of billions of dollars apiece, and that is manifestly not fair. Remember, the Millennials are the generation the grew up playing 光环. You old folks had better hope that they don’t just decide to “activate the rings” and stop the pathogen by destroying its hosts.
What I find most depressing at the moment is the companies that are benefitting from the emergency theater. Amazon, because people cannot find basic necessities at stores and do not want to shop anyway; Uber, because restaurants are closed and drivers are carrying out meals; Netflix, because people are shut in with nothing to do and want to watch the tube. These companies were the very worst of the exploitative, wealth-extracting, rentseeking scumbags during the boom times and now they are enjoying an Indian summer of revenue in the opening phases of the decline, bolstered by hideously low oil prices and buoyed by the non-realisation on the part of the multitude that the good times aren’t coming back.
The American century is over. This is it. It will take a decade and a half to play out and by the time the decline is over everything we’ve taken for granted in the post-war era will seem like ancient history. Take a picture, for you will not see its like again.
"We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn’t even done anything remotely devastating yet."
You really need to re-read Mr. Sailer's post and his latest from Taki's to fully comprehend the severity of the situation.
"Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was."
You are utterly clueless.
You appear to be ignoring the fact that there has been a coup d'etat by the infection control nurses and germophobes who have taken over the Three Ring Circus, formerly known as the US Congress and Administration.
当然 this will be standard procedure every flu season from now on. The school year will now be from June to Thanksgiving only and airline flights will only be available during the school year. Christmas, Easter and Valentine's Day have already been canceled.
The US will be activating sanctions against any foreign person or company that breaches infection control rules during the interdicted period and will shoot down incoming airliners trying to land at Orlando Disney Airport, JFK Jr. airport New York, Donald Trump Nationalist Airport at Washington, Atlanta Kardashian Airport (AKA), or Miami Domestic Airport airport (MAD), during Spring Break.
The Supreme Court will announce that the original text of the First Amendment had some very small writing at the bottom that had never been noticed so, that it now actually reads “国会不得制定有关宗教信仰或禁止其自由行使的法律； 或剥夺言论自由或新闻自由； 或人民和平集会和向政府提出申诉的权利 unless the President says there is a virus in the land, in which case the above is null and void and the penalty for breach thereof shall be excommunication and/or death.”
Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba...
回复：@Jonathan Mason，@Joe Stalin
说得好。
To be picky, we need to use more representative samples. Elections polls use stratified random sampling. They are able to squeeze pretty good results out of surprisingly small samples. The major difference is the testers pick the sample, rather than the subjects. Or a medical treatment process.
Random sampling is inefficient, requiring much larger numbers. All this is well known and people know how to do this.
No one is going to agree to waiting around months while pretending we only have 1918 era NPI tools.
Replies: @Redneck farmer, @Travis, @Jack D, @Elli
我知道我所在地区的疗养院已被封锁，没有访客，每个进入的人都要接受体温检查，送货到前厅。 但工作人员没有口罩。 挨家挨户的健康助手也是如此。好吧，给他们戴口罩，减少无声传播！重用总比什么都没有好。你好，联邦紧急事务管理局？预防就是充分利用资源。
My agency can’t or won’t go beyond CDC requirements. They do not acknowledge the existence of silent transmission because CDC communications do not.
经营卫生企业和卫生部门的人们对文书工作、无聊、官僚主义、例行公事、政策、程序有极大的容忍度，并按时提交表格。他们不主动；他们不展望未来，也不独立采取果断措施。
该州北部的一家医院报告称，一天内使用了近 800 个 N95 口罩，用于照顾 6 名 ICU 的 Covid19 患者以及一些非危重患者。如果你建造一个密封病房，让 20 名穿着兔子服和 N95 的员工轮班四个小时，只为病人更换外层手套，那么你每天要使用 80 个口罩。但监管人员表示，每位患者都要更换并穿戴新的个人防护装备。
The problem isn’t so much what percentage of cases are severe, it’s how many severe cases there will be.
执行该计划将接受数百万老年人的加速死亡，以及大量非老年人的死亡。
它还会破坏我们的医院和疗养院、医生和护士的健康和精神。这将使他们无法为其他病人和受伤的人提供服务。
办案：不收治超过一定年龄的重症新冠患者？让他们的家人在没有专业知识或防护装备的情况下照顾他们，进而生病？
或者最终给他们注射镇静剂，因为这是缓解窒息的痛苦和恐惧的唯一方法？从纯粹功利主义的角度来看，彻底的安乐死可以更有效地预防新的感染并节省资源。
如果我们尽早用羟氯喹鸡尾酒治疗高危患者会怎么样？这会阻止病情发展为严重/危重疾病并住院吗？这将是资源的良好利用。我们有多少 HCQ，我们能多快生产？
具有讽刺意味的是，经济低迷对整个公众健康有益，而不仅仅是老年人。人们开车更少——车祸更少。工业关闭——空气污染减少。人们花在毒品、酒精和致胖食品上的钱越来越少。 ETC。
现在，这并不意味着我们应该让经济陷入困境，但我们正在做的事情只会让婴儿潮一代受益的想法是错误的。现在，婴儿潮一代可能很自私，但我从一些人身上看到，他们一想到他们都会死去，就感到高兴，这是不体面的。这显示了解雇任何群体的危险 - 你会快速而无缝地从“好吧，婴儿潮一代”到“死吧，婴儿潮一代，死吧！”。这与这样一种观点相一致：白人（尤其是老年白人），尤其是男性，是唯一可以公开仇恨的群体。如果这场瘟疫对黑人尤其严重，那么没有人敢说：“我们不要为了帮助 13% 的黑人而让整个经济陷入困境。”
回复：@Jonathan Mason、@Patrick Sullivan、@Robert Dolan
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I’ve noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn’t vote for open borders……it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism…..it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, “The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing.”
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
"The boomer hate is evil and disturbing."
Agreed on that. But, the Boomers are in charge. To put what they have decided (ok, Pelosi is a bit older) in stark terms: they're willing to spend over 1trillion dollars at the Federal Level (based on bad or no data) to save a few years of life for people mostly over 65. It's a continuation of a pattern of a gerontocracy that pours billions of dollars into elder healthcare, with money paid for that healthcare by being mulcted from the young, who are also the poorest segment of the population. Absurdly, a 22yo earning minimum wage is paying into the Medicare system for people like Warren Buffett at the most extreme.
Now, we do have a high infant mortality rate: 5.8 versus a global developed average of about 3.4. Thats 2.4 excess deaths per 1000 births. Given about 3.8mm births in 2018, that's 3800x2.4 excess deaths, or about 9120. Given that each of those babies had a life expectancy of about 80, that's 730k years of excess human life snuffed out. If the extreme measures put in place add five years of life on average, we would need to save 146k extra Coronavirus victims; if 10 years, 73K. Of course, we have no idea of the effectiveness of Coronavirus interventions, while the infant mortality rate we have hard facts about.
All that having been said: for a young person whose whole life has meant living in a society that steers the majority of its healthcare monies to the voting and wealthy aged, there's been just cause to wish ill towards the Boomers, who haven't done much to close the gap (though Boomer and Silent Dems [and Millennial Buttigieg] did promise to pay for healthcare for young illegal aliens). Now the reaction to this virus will have a direct and negative impact on the young and working poor to save the older and wealthier.
That's going to increase the strain on the system further. The young have stopped having babies because they cannot afford it. Directing more money and attention to the old (who are our ruling class) could cause it to blow. I hope they keep up the Ok, Boomer, and use that as a relief valve to let off steam, because the alternative reaction to the screwing they've been getting is far worse.
"Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. " - And a sign the the basher have no original vision for the world except that they want the same world as boomers have. The bashers are not a threat to the system. They affirm the system. And obviously it is simplistic as you may expect from libertarians and social Darwinists. Anyway, the bashers are the useful idiots for oligarchy.
Bullshit I don’t hate boomers- but the problem is right wing boomers so often lapse into this kind of responsibility ducking BS endemic to black people. The boomer right was extremely adept at implementing measures that help with 401Ks and property values and completely capitulated on social issues.
Just own it- you don’t deserve to die but compared to the average millennial right winger you were far more amenable to 40 pieces of silver and not rocking the boat respectability. It’s like my extremely old right mom says-she hated what was coming but didn’t fight hard enough against because my family could afford private schools. And she end pissed my MBA-RNC dad off by canvassing for Pat B and giving him a max donation in 1992. A lot of the resentment comes from the fact boomers don’t acknowledge their fecklessness on this and instead sneer about liberal arts degrees.
Part of what is driving anger towards boomers on the dissident right is the "I don't see race" type rhetoric from these people. Another factor is the over the top philosemitism. You go on Free Republic, where the boomers are and you see many of these people genuinely care more about Israel than America. Boomers like that need to be confronted and called out more, not less.
Since Trump, we have an influx of boomer conservatives into alt-right online spaces. They tend to be very obnoxious, coming into our spaces with no contrition about being wrong in the past. They show up and start pushing their confused nonsense about "it's not really about race, it's just culture" and "why are you guys so mad at Jews, they are God's chosen people who must be worshipped." They generally have a hard time getting the alt-right zeitgeist. They especially struggle with being critical towards American style capitalism and militarism. Most of us Xers and younger would like our own spaces without boomers.
Also, for many of us, this personal. We had parents, teachers, pastors, bosses etc. who were boomer type conservatives who called us "racists" for not wanting mass immigration and things like that. What goes around comes around. Boomer conservatives had no pity on the younger white people whose lives were destroyed by immigration and minority worship. We were told to "suck it up, we don't care about your suffering," and "stop blaming immigrants, who are better than you anyway." When the whip is in our hand, we will repay them and nothing will stop it.
I'm not sure why you brought up "small hats." Small hats are modern Orthodox Jews.
回复：@jsm
It's especially important because the cuckish traits that let it happens are alive and well. Forget coronavirus, we need to nuke the cuck curve!
Forgiveness is possible, but not until people 'fess up.
回复：@RegCæsar
允许的Encouraged to Blame for All the World's Ills. I approach such birthdate-based analyses with the same attitude as with the others. It's basically astrology.时间线TimecolumnJan. 1946 Big Brother Boomer born
JULY 1946 婴幼儿护理常识书 出版
Dec. 1953 First issue of 花花公子, with Marilyn
MAY 1954 布朗诉董事会 决定
1950 年代后期：
https://d1ngmla7rol335.cloudfront.net/content/67163/bbf3576eab72cf06188517eb0cdb6db0.jpg
十一月1960 夏山 出版
Mar. 1961 Twenty-Third Amendment ratified
JUNE 1963 阿宾顿学区诉Schempp 决定
Jan. 1964 Big Brother could vote in Georgia and Kentucky
Nov. 1964 Landslide in favor of never questioning Social Security, Medicare, and the restratifiec
Dec. 1964 Baby Brother Boomer born
Jan. 1965 Big Brother could vote in Alaska
Jan. 1966 Big Brother could vote in Hawaii
Jan. 1967 Big Brother could finally vote in the other 46 states
Dec. 1982 Baby Brother could vote in every state
Boomer Fragility in action. Very rarely will you see any sense of culpability from Boomers. They instantly go into victim mode when called out.
“Let’s make this random testing happen.”
No. Let’s preserve freedom of movement and association for young people and let’s encourage oldsters and bedwetters to self-quarantine for The Duration.
Don’t participate in hoaxes.
测试施密斯特。我完全赞成对公共卫生威胁采取合理的预防和治疗措施。冠状病毒®不是这样的东西。真实的测试会揭示这一点，因此史蒂夫所描述的真实测试将不会被允许。
回复：@UK、@gate666、@野雁霍华德
有一些耻辱。
If it weren’t too close in time, random testing could be worked into the upcoming Census.
White coats?
回复：@Jack D、@Je Suis Omar Mateen
“So we are flying blind and have decided to condemn the economy to a likely depression from which it will take years to recover. The trade off may be gaining a few quality adjusted life years for some old people vs general immiseration for everyone else.”
The tragedy is we can (could have at this point) achieve both: maintain the Trump Miracle AND gain years for decrepit oldsters. It’s super simples: oldsters self-quarantine until summer. It is a win-win. Modern tech allows geezer-Americans to see and hear their chillens and grand chillens during The Duration.
But coronahoax is in reality Joe Biden’s election gambit, where Democratic governors have assembled an enormous excrement sammich and forced us all to take a bite.
Ironic that you have been dubbed a troll by the likes of Corvinus.
The DP is now our best data. They’re an older population but probably not many sickly 80+ people going on long international cruises.
When the Nets tested all players, 4 had it. Only 1 had symptoms.
The first Scottish case, a man in his 50s, was tested because of travel exposure. He tested positive, but only had mild cold symptoms for a few days and fully recovered.
Lots of other young untested people report having very unusual but mild cold-like symptoms. Like a hacking cough but zero runny nose and brief mild fever.
Gay Filipino Republican David Lat reported he was unable to get tested despite severe classic symptoms that had him at an ER, because he hadn’t traveled. He’s extremely ill, but his husband was infected too and had brief mild symptoms then fully recovered in a week.
All these anecdotes suggest they are far more infected people with little to no symptoms who are spreading, and that death rates are overstated by about 5, possibly 10.
钻石公主 是一个完美的现实生活实验室实验。 712 名乘客和机组人员中有 3,711 人被感染（19%）。在一艘拥挤的船上，挤满了老人，空气循环，没有人采取特别的预防措施。死亡率 感染者中 1%，7人死亡。死亡率为0.019%。
如果 622,000% 的美国人感染了 Covid-19，并且 19% 的人中有 1% 死亡，那么这仍然意味着 19 名美国人死亡。尽管美国的人口密度比船上的密度低数千倍（当然像纽约和西雅图这样拥挤的城市，里程也会有所不同），但人们现在采取了预防措施，而且美国的年龄结构也完全没有变化。与游轮的船龄情况类似，10,000 万人或更多死亡的可能性微乎其微。 XNUMX 甚至不太可能。
回复：@Polyniks、@FPD72
同意。我昨天在评论部分发布了这篇文章，恐怕史蒂夫没有充分发挥它的作用。
他估计病死率的可能性要低得多。他的 CFR 范围上限低于大多数末日论者使用的数字。他还至少顺便提到了存在权衡的事实。经济萧条有其自身的负面健康后果。
I have had a career in health care and health care administration and have plenty of health care professionals in my family, for what it is worth.
There is no doubt in my mind that putting the whole of the US in quarantine and shutting down every place where people meet other people will probably slow the spread of the virus, but the question is all about whether the cure is worse than the disease.
In any herd of wildebeest, the cattle that are carried off and eaten by the lions are the weak, the sick, and those least able to mount resistance. Viruses, like lions, tend to pick on the vulnerable, particularly those who are likely to die soon from other causes. Hence if you are very old, weak, have poorly functioning lungs, are on oxygen, have COPD, are on kidney dialysis, are bedridden, wheelchair-bound, are a cigarette smoker, or have any combination of these, the corona virus is more likely to kill you before the saber-toothed tigers pick your carcass off the forest floor.
How much sacrifice the young and the healthy should make to prolong the life of the elderly and the sick is a moot point.
Americans are a superstitious and conformist people and are easily influenced, but what we need is mature, well-informed, responsible adults making decisions based on the best information and research, not the rantings of congressional clowns in the three-ring-circus of Washington.
Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jack D, @128
If we assume that the virus will cull mostly those who are old and sick, then after this is over, the remaining population should be younger and more healthy and life expectancy will actually go up after a temporary blip and then settle back down after the time when those who died too soon would have died anyway. What the virus is mostly doing is moving up (by a relatively few years) the expiration date of people who were going to expire pretty soon anyway.
BUT if the person in question is you or a friend or a family member, the thought of having your meter run out early is not a pleasant one. Maybe you have a good 5 or 10 years of cruising or playing bridge at the retirement community left in you despite your age and conditions. Maybe longer – God only knows. Modern medicine is pretty good at prolonging life when it comes to known diseases. Yesterday I saw an ad for a local retirement community in which they featured a guy who was 102 and who had had a career writing advertising jingles – he wrote the “Good and Plenty” song. Now he formed a jazz band from among the other seniors and he writes songs for it. He seemed like he was enjoying his life as much as people who are a lot younger.
We are taught that every human life is sacred. If there are reasonable and temporary public health measures that will prevent millions or even thousands of our fellow citizens from being carried off early, we should take them. It’s all a question of line drawing. Suppose I told you that if everyone stayed home for one day, 60 million lives could be saved? You’d do that, right? Now if I told you that if we shut down our entire economy, one old geezer would live another six weeks, you’d say no, not worth it. What we have is somewhere in between and we are going to have to feel our way into a reasonable cost/benefit balance. This is admittedly hard to do in a panic/ ghouls trying to seek political advantage out of tragedy situation.
Well, yes. I suppose it is a tribute to what an affluent society we are that we can make these choices. In third world countries like Haiti, every day is a struggle for survival, and they do not have the luxury of deciding to tank the economy and close the schools for a few months to prolong the lives of some seniors, because if they did, the death rates through starvation and crime would rocket.
In the US it is unlikely that people who lose their jobs will starve to death. They will get food or shelter from somewhere. Maybe families will be living in more crowded conditions, with someone sleeping on the sofa or three in a bed. The number of the homeless may increase a bit, but probably they will take the plane to San Francisco and not bother us too much. People who planned to retire may have to work a few more years. Old cars will be repaired once again instead of being replaced. A few more homes will be repossessed.
These are small adjustments that do not mean the end of civilization.
The problem with random sampling is the number of tests that would have to be performed. 1000 gives you pretty good data for political preferences because you get 1000 positive responses. However, the poll accuracy more or less scales as the square root of positives.
In other words, if 10% tested positive, you’d need 100 times larger a sample (100,000) to get polling level accuracy.
Granted we don’t need +/- 5%, but you see the problem in the early stages. All the methodological problems quickly get out of hand.
The problems with counting bodies are the small numbers, the incubation lag, and the R_0 factor. You don’t start to get reliable data from counting bodies until the bodies pile up, at which point it is too late to intervene.
I’m seeing a lot of snarky articles about how this or that portion of the government has failed us, but none of them seem to appreciate just how much a data free zone this has been. Looking around the world, it’s hard to find examples of swift government action that can be replicated on US scale.
A brilliant candidate for that screenplay you were talking about. The lady is almost certainly white or Asian, but in the movie she will be black, with a long pre-story of racism and discrimination. She ramps up her testing facilities and saves the country, personally chasing down the last infected person to a prepper stockade in Charlottesville. Dodging nooses, and in the midst of a shootout, she administers the life-saving serum. (In the Director’s Cut, the medical treatment will be replaced with a wooden stake through the heart.)
Thanks. Holed up in NYC waiting for the plague to take us all down. Needed a good laugh.
我也已经从“谨慎小心”阶段过渡到“这整件事是不是一场骗局？” 阶段，有两个基本原因。
1) 尽管真实数据广泛存在，但我们的大部分信息都是奇怪的“传闻”。 病毒的后果就像大脚怪：人们相信，人们说他们相信，但为什么我们没有任何照片？
意大利最引人注目的信息是一位急诊医生的匿名博客文章，描述了当前的分类（没有基于年龄的医疗保健、癌症和糖尿病等），描述医院床位短缺，尸体像木头一样堆放。 然而，实际上地球上每个人都有一部带摄像头的手机。 这家医院在哪里？ 意大利北部并不是西方人不敢涉足的最深的刚果。 铁幕后的中国也不是。 它是发达国家的一部分。 如果尸体像木头一样堆放，CNN就会在那里，或者护士的手机照片会到处都是。 他们在哪里？
类似地（至少在 Rod Dreher 的网站上——他引用了怀俄明州所有地方的医生的话）：我们有传闻说医院不堪重负，个人防护装备短缺，医务人员过度工作，在政府出现之前很久就出现症状的未经检测的患者（以及，当然，特朗普！）承认了这一点。
再说一遍：尸体在哪里？ 怀俄明州的新闻记者不能参观医院并向我们展示混乱吗？
媒体上的轶事文章告诉我们情况有多么紧张，生活将如何变得不一样。 但这些轶事似乎都描述了……生活在隔离中的压力（我的家人正在这样做，坦率地说，还不错）。 很奇怪，不出去也很奇怪，但真的没那么糟糕。 附近没有“把你死了的”手推车给我们——只是孩子们在做在线学校作业，并在一天的另一半玩电子游戏。
我所熟悉的轶事（有一个在学术医院工作的亲密家庭成员）都表明压力和混乱是由对病毒的反应引起的，而不是病毒本身。 医学生不再工作——因为他们没有任何个人防护装备。 为什么没有个人防护用品？ 因为它被囤积了——不是因为它被用完了（我所在的州很少有冠状病毒病例）。 正在取消常规或常规医疗程序。 不是因为他们没有时间：因为正在为尚不存在的冠状病毒受害者节省资源。 对大流行恐惧的反应导致了问题，而不是对病毒本身的反应。
谁在死去？ 我有一种模糊的感觉，它基本上是老年人。 新文章坚持认为事实并非如此，但随后没有描述受灾年轻人的健康状况（既往状况？）。 有助于我们理解的信息并非有意而为。
最后（也是最重要的，坦率地说）：中国。 中国自 1 月（第一例？）或大约 3,200 月 XNUMX 日（重大、公认的情况）以来就感染了该病毒。 在它被认为是大流行之前，他们就已经感染了。 他们把它放在一个人口稠密的地方。 他们在不健康、受污染的人群中拥有它。 他们比我们早两个月。 看起来（如果你用谷歌搜索中国和新病例）他们在新病例方面已经达到顶峰。 他们有...... XNUMX人死亡。
我想我们会在接下来的两周内找到答案。
不过，我确实预计 6 或 8 个月后会出现奇怪的情况。 媒体和民主党试图将这种情况变成“特朗普失败”的局面，他们将陷入困境。
CDC 预测有 1-2 百万人死亡（最坏的情况）。
如果他们是对的，那就是一场世界大流行病，特朗普所做或不做的任何事情都不会对此产生影响：美国的反应与西方世界其他国家的反应相当一致。
如果他们错了（据说有 5,00-10,000 人死亡）：要么他们的预测一开始就是荒谬的，而特朗普推迟摧毁经济是对的，要么他们是对的，但美国（以及特朗普的) 反应在将死亡人数控制在远低于 2 万方面表现出色。
乔
乔，我也有同样的感觉：意大利北部的新闻业在哪里？
它正在到达那里：
https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-day-you-lose-the-contagion-gets-worse-lessons-from-italys-hospital-meltdown-11584455470?st=3qj58xwuhd6d68z&mod=pkt_fr2&utm_source=pocket-newtab
到处都会这么热吗？ 不同国家会继续出现不同的结果吗？
这个 https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-italy-videos-show-military-fleet-transporting-coffins-of-coronavirus-victims-out-of-overwhelmed-town 不是谣言。 他们这样做是因为当地的火葬场超负荷运转 24 X 7。
回复：@joeyjoejoe
3700 people, 2666 passengers ( half over age 70) and 1045 crew return on February 3rd. Ship notified on January 30 that a sole passenger who disembarked on January 25 in Hong Kong for medical reasons had been infected with the virus. Curiously, 13 passengers and crew disembark during a sightseeing stop in Okinawa on February 1 and fly home. Sometime between February 1 and 3 passengers are confined to cabins. Quarantine continues once reaching Yokohama. Daily medical examinations of those aboard begin February 4. Those testing positive are removed and hospitalized.
This is the gold standard for medical screening and treatment. Cannot be replicated anywhere else.
What have we learned? 20% became infected (715), 7 have died with 15 still in serious condition. This is the most valuable data we will ever get on Covid-19 and, because the passengers and crew received the most intensive screening and best medical treatment it is possible to deliver, the optimum outcome. Its all downhill, save for age distribution, in the real world.
Replies: @Steve Sailer, @anon, @Erik L
The media, etc has stopped reporting on the non recovered. The last data I saw was from March 3, with 35 seriously ill. It’s a good data set and it should be finished (with final totals of dead/recovered) and re validated number and ages of passengers and crew. There was some question of whether the crew was in the age distribution figures.
A very interesting story from NJ poses questions about degree / length / type of contact and perhaps the severity of viral strains.
3 of 5 of NJ’s and Pennsylvania’s only Wuhan Covid-19 deaths are linked to a single family dinner and subsequent contact with a non-family member.
“Grace Fusco was the mother of 11 children and grandmother of 27. She was unaware that two of her children had already died of the illness before her own death, the Times reported.”
“Four other children who contracted the coronavirus remained hospitalized at CentraState on Wednesday night, three of them in critical condition, the article said.”
“Fusco, of Freehold, died after spending Wednesday “gravely ill” and breathing with help from a ventilator, Paradiso Fodera told the Times.”
“A person who had contact with a man who became New Jersey’s first victim of COVID-19, had attended a recent Fusco family gathering, the Times reported.”
“John Brennan, a 69-year-old Little Ferry horse trainer and mainstay in the New York racing community, was the first victim of the virus in New Jersey.”
“Paradiso Fodera told the Times that the gathering was a routine Tuesday dinner.”
https://www.app.com/story/news/local/western-monmouth-county/freehold-township/2020/03/18/coronavirus-nj-freehold-mother-dies-covid-19-four-children-fighting-lives/2872949001/
3700 people, 2666 passengers ( half over age 70) and 1045 crew return on February 3rd. Ship notified on January 30 that a sole passenger who disembarked on January 25 in Hong Kong for medical reasons had been infected with the virus. Curiously, 13 passengers and crew disembark during a sightseeing stop in Okinawa on February 1 and fly home. Sometime between February 1 and 3 passengers are confined to cabins. Quarantine continues once reaching Yokohama. Daily medical examinations of those aboard begin February 4. Those testing positive are removed and hospitalized.
This is the gold standard for medical screening and treatment. Cannot be replicated anywhere else.
What have we learned? 20% became infected (715), 7 have died with 15 still in serious condition. This is the most valuable data we will ever get on Covid-19 and, because the passengers and crew received the most intensive screening and best medical treatment it is possible to deliver, the optimum outcome. Its all downhill, save for age distribution, in the real world.
Replies: @Steve Sailer, @anon, @Erik L
I don’t think it is all down hill. If hospitals become overwhelmed, which I doubt will happen in the US as in that region in Italy, then mortality among those in danger goes up. On the other hand the US is not a cruise ship with tight quarters and recirculating air and buffets and activities. As the season goes on new cases will likely drop unless this is the one mutant respiratory virus that has a summer workaround. As the virus spreads it mutates. If it becomes deadlier transmission goes down. If it becomes less severe transmission goes up.
7 out of 3700 died and 15 in serious condition is not at all scary. If this were before social media and rapid viral genome sequencing days the pubic and politicians would barely have noticed. The president would fall asleep during his CDC briefing on it. Then doctors across the nation would be telling each other “wow, bad flu season, right?”
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1216822645712355328/1xdEMF6c_400x400.jpg
不要抱怨没有 Kung Fluey，或者“Shawyn”会要求备份：
https://www.unz.com/isteve/police-commissioner-outlaw-inlaws-her-favorite-nail-polish-in-opening-salvo-of-world-war-nails/#comment-3718245
https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/IOT8kywQF7ivMo0_FJlJVxkEDLg=/1400x0/center/middle/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/MNIWRLJZ7ZBN3PAU2UTQSYOJDA.jpg
“哟声音的丙酮让我感到惊讶”！ 你以为自己是角质层吗？ 我不会被任何废话所吸引！”
回复：@eastkekiisawhiteguy、@Kolya Krassotkin
数以千计的澳大利亚人从日本逃往WW2@马来西亚。 中国人打响指就能把澳大利亚劈成两半
If we assume that the virus will cull mostly those who are old and sick, then after this is over, the remaining population should be younger and more healthy and life expectancy will actually go up after a temporary blip and then settle back down after the time when those who died too soon would have died anyway. What the virus is mostly doing is moving up (by a relatively few years) the expiration date of people who were going to expire pretty soon anyway.
BUT if the person in question is you or a friend or a family member, the thought of having your meter run out early is not a pleasant one. Maybe you have a good 5 or 10 years of cruising or playing bridge at the retirement community left in you despite your age and conditions. Maybe longer - God only knows. Modern medicine is pretty good at prolonging life when it comes to known diseases. Yesterday I saw an ad for a local retirement community in which they featured a guy who was 102 and who had had a career writing advertising jingles - he wrote the "Good and Plenty" song. Now he formed a jazz band from among the other seniors and he writes songs for it. He seemed like he was enjoying his life as much as people who are a lot younger.
We are taught that every human life is sacred. If there are reasonable and temporary public health measures that will prevent millions or even thousands of our fellow citizens from being carried off early, we should take them. It's all a question of line drawing. Suppose I told you that if everyone stayed home for one day, 60 million lives could be saved? You'd do that, right? Now if I told you that if we shut down our entire economy, one old geezer would live another six weeks, you'd say no, not worth it. What we have is somewhere in between and we are going to have to feel our way into a reasonable cost/benefit balance. This is admittedly hard to do in a panic/ ghouls trying to seek political advantage out of tragedy situation.
回复：@乔纳森·梅森，@本·蒂尔曼
Well, yes. I suppose it is a tribute to what an affluent society we are that we can make these choices. In third world countries like Haiti, every day is a struggle for survival, and they do not have the luxury of deciding to tank the economy and close the schools for a few months to prolong the lives of some seniors, because if they did, the death rates through starvation and crime would rocket.
In the US it is unlikely that people who lose their jobs will starve to death. They will get food or shelter from somewhere. Maybe families will be living in more crowded conditions, with someone sleeping on the sofa or three in a bed. The number of the homeless may increase a bit, but probably they will take the plane to San Francisco and not bother us too much. People who planned to retire may have to work a few more years. Old cars will be repaired once again instead of being replaced. A few more homes will be repossessed.
These are small adjustments that do not mean the end of civilization.
On the other hand, an N95 mask company I’d never heard of in the Dallas-Fort Worth area got burned by overordering during SARS. The owner said “I told you so” back in February. This article from the Bezos blog actually has some facts, but then it’s from the business section rather than the “news” section.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200215214026/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/15/coronavirus-mask-shortage-texas-manufacturing/
The production lines exist
但…
We haven't seen this virus truly spreading without controls for very long, it's potential numbers of infected and the cohorts most likely to in situations of maximum spread (Children, adolescents and young adults) tend to the exactly those who fail to develop noticeable symptoms. The 'disease is worse than the cure' mentality has the advantage of the 'disease' not appearing in full form yet. We should all be reassured by the setting of a precedent for pandemic outbreaks so strong. Indeed, some of this may even be an attempt to test such measures with a virus with low (At least in Western countries, I'm still interested in how IFITM3 variants might influence disease course) stakes.
But broader than discussions of how appropriate some of the measures are, is the question, in our neoliberal age, we question the cost to Goldman Sachs of every government decision. We've seen an admirable display of collectivism, social cohesion and acceptance of a purpose beyond money. People aren't groaning or complaining and they're not doing it because they think they will die, they're doing it because they're concerned about the old and sick dying. This time something other than money won. That's at least something worth celebrating.
回覆：@XYZ（没有先生）
Collectivism? Besides necessary and basic countermeasures like travel bans, self quarantine, and social distancing, there has been a huge overreaction in the United States.
‘Money’ did win. Or rather, the salaried clerisy won. Who will continue to get paid — unlike many other workers affected by shelter in place orders.
It’s real easy to feel good about yourself, and being obscenely cautious about public health, when you aren’t the one making the sacrifices. Life and society are always risk and benefit balancing among many groups.
Wuhan virus has shown me lots of groups, like conservatives or libertarians in at risk demographics (60+), will gladly throw the under 40 under the bus, or cheer doing so.
In conservative circles, the fallout from this event will end up more divisive than the election of President Trump in 2016.
I have had a career in health care and health care administration and have plenty of health care professionals in my family, for what it is worth.
There is no doubt in my mind that putting the whole of the US in quarantine and shutting down every place where people meet other people will probably slow the spread of the virus, but the question is all about whether the cure is worse than the disease.
In any herd of wildebeest, the cattle that are carried off and eaten by the lions are the weak, the sick, and those least able to mount resistance. Viruses, like lions, tend to pick on the vulnerable, particularly those who are likely to die soon from other causes. Hence if you are very old, weak, have poorly functioning lungs, are on oxygen, have COPD, are on kidney dialysis, are bedridden, wheelchair-bound, are a cigarette smoker, or have any combination of these, the corona virus is more likely to kill you before the saber-toothed tigers pick your carcass off the forest floor.
How much sacrifice the young and the healthy should make to prolong the life of the elderly and the sick is a moot point.
Americans are a superstitious and conformist people and are easily influenced, but what we need is mature, well-informed, responsible adults making decisions based on the best information and research, not the rantings of congressional clowns in the three-ring-circus of Washington.
Replies: @Intelligent Dasein, @Jack D, @128
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Older Americans are certainly acting Confucian, in respect for respect for elders, themselves.
When I buy a 35K car and give 5K to Saint Jude (that's a cancer hospital for kids -- you know, kids, the future), instead of buying a 30K car and giving 10K to Saint Jude, I am making a value judgement.
The saints among us -- and my have they not all popped up lately -- would claim I need to give all my money to Saint Jude. I will not, I do care about others in society, but also look out for myself.
But if I had given that extra 5K, and others, multiplied by enough people, more kids' lives would have been saved.
For some reason this simple cost/benefit analysis is not considered an issue in America.
However, when I think precaution is in order regarding Wuhan virus, social distancing yes, people should work from home if possible, yes, if not possible, then work should continue as normal.
Schools should continue as normal.
This indeed would cause more infections than a complete lockdown, and more deaths, but certainly less than no caution. And society would continue along.
That is a cost/benefit analysis that is somehow considered now beyond the pale by many Americans. And most that think that are being quite hypocritical.
FIFYA。
Reverence for people because the lived longer than you did, is as retarded as reverence for people because they squirted out offspring at their physical capacity.
既不是 先验 worthy of reverence.
'Respect the elders' is a strategy that gets embedded in cultures when old people are a key source of information - i.e., societies with poorly-developed information-retention systems.
It should be discarded once information-systems are developed enough to ensure near-complete, accurate, low-cost information repositories... retaining it for longer than that is fucking stupid. (It's actually even worse than the military idea '尊重 排名, not the man“）。
Let's look at corner cases...
• a 90 year old paedophile priest who spent 60 years raping children;
• a woman who squirts out 10 welfare recipients (or worse: 10 bureaucrats... same deleterious economic as welfare recipients, but 5x more so).
Neither deserves the slightest iota of respect.
Work your way from there until you get a set of outcomes that merit respect.
.
Revere (or rather 'respect') 有意义的结果.
Getting old is not a meaningful outcome; the important thing is what happens on the way.
Likewise, having offspring is not a meaningful outcome: the important thing is what happens thereafter.
Now, if the woman had instead squirted out 10 kiddies who went on to generate value in excess of the social cost of raising them... I'll "revere" the fuck out of that woman; her kids are top-decile which makes them pretty special.
Likewise, if a 90 year old had spent a lifetime as a net contributor - i.e., spent an entire working life generating private-sector value added, and was funding their own twilight years (including being able to claw back the real value of their forced SS contributions - plus accrued interest). 那个 guy has my respect.
.
People need to learn to respect their 更好 - and to be highly discriminating (and merciless to themselves) in determining who those '更好' are.
(FWIW: In my taxonomy, no lifetime net-recipient of government policy tilts is my 'better' - those whose lifetime household income derives mostly from taxes or legislated privilege).
回复：@ 128
Western societies do not value old people at all
嗯...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/07/report-federal-government-spends-more-elderly-than-kids/677011002/
Spending on kids fell from $405 billion in 2010, or 10.7% percent of the budget, to $377 billion in 2016, or 9.8% of the budget.
The elderly are gettingmore of the pie ($1.4 trillion, or 37%), while children are getting less ($377 billion, or 9.8%).
Yeah, the USA doesn't value old people at all.
Ferguson's worst case scenario is 0.9% with eighty percent infected.
回复：@Steve Sailer，@Luke Lea
Speaking of testing, why are we not hearing more about the need for a test to identify those who have been recently infected, say since January, but are now completely recovered and presumably immune? If the number is large wouldn’t it be good to know?
The Seattle area would be a good place to start. Not sure what such a test would look like — drawing serum & looking for antibodies? — but it ought to be a priority.
Tests are precious now; not enough of them to go around for information (or even knowledge) collection. What few are available are being used to diagnose suspects with high probability of infection.
回复：@Alice
Here it is: https://tinyurl.com/thz9984
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Kratoklastes, @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt
Older Americans are certainly acting Confucian, in respect for respect for elders, themselves.
When I buy a 35K car and give 5K to Saint Jude (that’s a cancer hospital for kids — you know, kids, the future), instead of buying a 30K car and giving 10K to Saint Jude, I am making a value judgement.
The saints among us — and my have they not all popped up lately — would claim I need to give all my money to Saint Jude. I will not, I do care about others in society, but also look out for myself.
But if I had given that extra 5K, and others, multiplied by enough people, more kids’ lives would have been saved.
For some reason this simple cost/benefit analysis is not considered an issue in America.
However, when I think precaution is in order regarding Wuhan virus, social distancing yes, people should work from home if possible, yes, if not possible, then work should continue as normal.
Schools should continue as normal.
This indeed would cause more infections than a complete lockdown, and more deaths, but certainly less than no caution. And society would continue along.
That is a cost/benefit analysis that is somehow considered now beyond the pale by many Americans. And most that think that are being quite hypocritical.
An iSteve commenter should plot by state the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases vs the number of Chinese residents. Those data would be interesting to see.
Nobody knows how many Chinese are in the country due to illegal immigration. Anecdotes suggest that the illegal Chinese population is huge.
回复：@JimB
武汉病毒的数据表明，它只对年老体弱的人和患有一种或多种严重慢性疾病的年轻人致命，而不是年轻人。
因此，据我所知，美国目前抗击病毒的方法，即使它成功了，也最多只能延长一些已经一只脚已经踏入坟墓的数千人的生命，而以牺牲生计为代价以及数千万甚至更多人的福祉和自由。
Some AI genius somewhere needs to write algorithms that do this automatically, then cross match against random samples of 1,000.
We. Need. More. Information.
Need to start using an anti-body test to determine how many Americans have had COVID-19 and recovered. This will also indicate that some Americans already have immunity to this coronavirus.
The test detects antibodies that people produce after they’ve become infected a virus. Those antibodies can appear in the blood one to three weeks after infection, and they’re part of the immune system’s response to infection. The antibody-based tests can identify people who were not known to be infected either because they never developed symptoms, or they had symptoms that were never correctly diagnosed. The test will also help identify people who have immunity to the virus.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/
the test can identify silent infections, as well as identifying people who were once sick but have recovered. If it turns out that many people got infected with the novel coronavirus but didn’t get sick, that means the virus is less likely to be fatal than it now appears. That’s just one insight the test could bring.
钻石公主 是一个完美的现实生活实验室实验。 712 名乘客和机组人员中有 3,711 人被感染（19%）。在一艘拥挤的船上，挤满了老人，空气循环，没有人采取特别的预防措施。死亡率 感染者中 1%，7人死亡。死亡率为0.019%。
如果 622,000% 的美国人感染了 Covid-19，并且 19% 的人中有 1% 死亡，那么这仍然意味着 19 名美国人死亡。尽管美国的人口密度比船上的密度低数千倍（当然像纽约和西雅图这样拥挤的城市，里程也会有所不同），但人们现在采取了预防措施，而且美国的年龄结构也完全没有变化。与游轮的船龄情况类似，10,000 万人或更多死亡的可能性微乎其微。 XNUMX 甚至不太可能。
回复：@Polyniks、@FPD72
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
这将四舍五入到 19%。你已经落后了 10 倍。
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
That would round to .19%. You are off by a factor of 10."
？
.00188 rounds to .0019. He's off by a factor of 10, all right, but you're off by a factor of 100.
Replies: @FPD72, @Rex Little, @ben tillman
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
“The boomer hate is evil and disturbing.”
Agreed on that. But, the Boomers are in charge. To put what they have decided (ok, Pelosi is a bit older) in stark terms: they’re willing to spend over 1trillion dollars at the Federal Level (based on bad or no data) to save a few years of life for people mostly over 65. It’s a continuation of a pattern of a gerontocracy that pours billions of dollars into elder healthcare, with money paid for that healthcare by being mulcted from the young, who are also the poorest segment of the population. Absurdly, a 22yo earning minimum wage is paying into the Medicare system for people like Warren Buffett at the most extreme.
Now, we do have a high infant mortality rate: 5.8 versus a global developed average of about 3.4. Thats 2.4 excess deaths per 1000 births. Given about 3.8mm births in 2018, that’s 3800×2.4 excess deaths, or about 9120. Given that each of those babies had a life expectancy of about 80, that’s 730k years of excess human life snuffed out. If the extreme measures put in place add five years of life on average, we would need to save 146k extra Coronavirus victims; if 10 years, 73K. Of course, we have no idea of the effectiveness of Coronavirus interventions, while the infant mortality rate we have hard facts about.
All that having been said: for a young person whose whole life has meant living in a society that steers the majority of its healthcare monies to the voting and wealthy aged, there’s been just cause to wish ill towards the Boomers, who haven’t done much to close the gap (though Boomer and Silent Dems [and Millennial Buttigieg] did promise to pay for healthcare for young illegal aliens). Now the reaction to this virus will have a direct and negative impact on the young and working poor to save the older and wealthier.
That’s going to increase the strain on the system further. The young have stopped having babies because they cannot afford it. Directing more money and attention to the old (who are our ruling class) could cause it to blow. I hope they keep up the Ok, Boomer, and use that as a relief valve to let off steam, because the alternative reaction to the screwing they’ve been getting is far worse.
we don’t need anymore data. we already know for sure this was the biggest overreaction in the history of the world. overreaction to the point of idiocy. like making ownership of cars punishable by 1 year prison sentences, to reduce traffic fatalities from 38,000 per year towards 0 per year, then accepting it only went down to like 2000 per year while eliminating all vehicles from society.
major global recession incoming, possible depression, depending on how long Anthony Fauci keeps going on television and talking about maybe needing to shut down everything for a year.
oh, and going by all going by all historical data, Joe Biden will be elected President. so the travel bans will end and the border will open right up. so everything being done now will immediately be undone by the Democrats in January.
don’t forget the introduction of UBI, the worse idea EVER in the HISTORY of politics. if it’s a one time payment, probably no big deal. a 300 billion dollar expenditure, something the government does every year. if it goes out maybe 3 times though, that’s all she wrote. once it starts, it won’t stop. well, not voluntarily. Biden will promise to keep it going. oh, but only for people who don’t file a tax return above $50,000. you see, people who make a lot money don’t need that UBI. only the useless Democrat voters will be getting it. we’ll be taking that money from the productive tax filers and transferring it to the people who don’t make enough to even pay taxes. maybe illegal aliens will even get it. Biden is big on that.
we might as well have been hit by an asteroid. the situation is potentially THAT bad.
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
“Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. ” – And a sign the the basher have no original vision for the world except that they want the same world as boomers have. The bashers are not a threat to the system. They affirm the system. And obviously it is simplistic as you may expect from libertarians and social Darwinists. Anyway, the bashers are the useful idiots for oligarchy.
Lack of good information is really a problem right now. It’s all hysteria and fear-mongering crowding out everything else. Tens of thousands die every year from the flu and no one bats an eye: it’s business as usual. 2017-18 appears to have been a particularly bad season. Had this not been identified and named it would just have passed through as another bad flu with higher numbers this time around. Why this time? What’s so different now? More seems to be going on and it’s not purely public health.
1）尽管真实数据广泛存在，但我们的大多数信息都是奇怪的“谣言”。病毒的后果就像大脚怪：人们相信，人们说他们相信，但为什么我们没有任何照片？
来自意大利的最引人注目的信息是一位急诊医生的匿名博客文章，描述了当前的分诊（没有基于年龄、既往癌症和糖尿病等的医疗保健），描述了医院床位的短缺，尸体像木材一样堆放。然而，实际上地球上的每个人都拥有一部带摄像头的手机。这家医院在哪里？意大利北部并不是西方人不敢涉足的刚果最深处。也不是铁幕后面的中国。它是发达国家的一部分。如果尸体像木柴一样堆放，CNN 就会在那里，或者护士的手机照片会到处都是。他们在哪里？
同样地（至少在罗德·德雷尔的网站上——他引用了怀俄明州所有地方的一位医生的说法）：我们有一些轶事医生的帖子称，医院不堪重负，个人防护装备短缺，医务人员过度劳累，未经检测的患者早在政府出现症状之前就出现了症状（而且，当然，特朗普！）承认了这一点。
再说一遍：尸体在哪里？怀俄明州的新闻记者不能参观一家医院并向我们展示混乱的情况吗？
媒体上的轶事文章告诉我们，情况是多么紧张，生活将永远不一样。但这些轶事似乎都描述了……隔离生活的压力（我的家人正在这样做，坦率地说，情况并没有那么糟糕）。这很奇怪，不出去也很奇怪，但其实也没有那么糟糕。附近还没有“把你死掉的”独轮车给我们——只有孩子们在网上做作业，然后用剩下的半天时间玩电子游戏。
我熟悉的轶事（一位在学术医院工作的亲密家庭成员）都表明压力和混乱是由对病毒的反应引起的，而不是病毒本身。医学生不再工作——因为他们没有任何个人防护装备。为什么没有个人防护装备？因为它被囤积起来，而不是因为它被用完（我的州有很少的冠状病毒病例）。常规或例行的医疗程序正在被取消。不是因为他们没有时间：因为正在为尚不存在的冠状病毒受害者节省资源。造成这些问题的是对流行病恐惧的反应，而不是对病毒本身的反应。
谁正在死去？我有一种模糊的感觉，基本上都是老年人。新文章坚称事实并非如此，但并没有描述受影响的年轻人的健康状况（已有疾病？）。有助于我们理解的信息并不存在——可能是故意的。
最后（坦率地说，也是最重要的）：中国。中国自 1 月（第一个病例？）或 3,200 月 XNUMX 日左右（重大、公认的情况）起就出现了该病毒。他们在它被认为是大流行之前就已经感染了它。他们把它放在人口稠密的地方。他们在不健康、受污染的人群中携带这种病毒。他们比我们早两个月。看起来（如果你用谷歌搜索中国和新病例）他们的新病例数量已经达到顶峰。他们有……XNUMX人死亡。
我想我们会在接下来的两周内找到答案。
不过，我确实预计 6 或 8 个月后会出现奇怪的情况。媒体和民主党试图将其变成“特朗普失败”的局面，将会陷入困境。
CDC 预测有 1-2 百万人死亡（最坏的情况）。
如果他们是对的，那么这就是一场世界大流行病，特朗普所做或没有做的任何事情都不会影响这一点：美国的反应与西方世界其他国家的反应相当一致。
如果他们错了（据说有 5,00-10,000 人死亡）：要么他们的预测一开始就是荒谬的，特朗普推迟摧毁经济的决定是正确的，要么他们是对的，但美国（以及特朗普的预测） ）反应非常出色，将死亡人数控制在远低于 2 万人。
乔
回复：@ferd、@epebble
乔，我也有同样的感觉：意大利北部的新闻业在哪里？
它正在到达那里：
https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-day-you-lose-the-contagion-gets-worse-lessons-from-italys-hospital-meltdown-11584455470?st=3qj58xwuhd6d68z&mod=pkt_fr2&utm_source=pocket-newtab
到处都会这么热吗？ 不同国家会继续出现不同的结果吗？
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1216822645712355328/1xdEMF6c_400x400.jpg
不要抱怨没有 Kung Fluey，或者“Shawyn”会要求备份：
https://www.unz.com/isteve/police-commissioner-outlaw-inlaws-her-favorite-nail-polish-in-opening-salvo-of-world-war-nails/#comment-3718245
https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/IOT8kywQF7ivMo0_FJlJVxkEDLg=/1400x0/center/middle/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/MNIWRLJZ7ZBN3PAU2UTQSYOJDA.jpg
“哟声音的丙酮让我感到惊讶”！ 你以为自己是角质层吗？ 我不会被任何废话所吸引！”
回复：@eastkekiisawhiteguy、@Kolya Krassotkin
The tranny in that top picture reminds me that there is one upside to this current donnybrook: Drag Queen Story hour is canceled.
There’s another great case study which suggests that the mortality rates are calculated from extremely unrepresentative samples.
In one Italian village they had 2 cases and a population of 3000. They then tested the whole village and locked it down. They found 66 more during the testing. They now have no further cases.
I don’t think that it is a huge leap to therefore assert that only a very small fraction of actual cases are later marked into the column as “confirmed cases”.
Speaking of testing, why are we not hearing more about the need for a test to identify those who have been recently infected, say since January, but are now completely recovered and presumably immune? If the number is large wouldn't it be good to know?
The Seattle area would be a good place to start. Not sure what such a test would look like -- drawing serum & looking for antibodies? -- but it ought to be a priority.
Replies: @epebble, @Luke Lea
Tests are precious now; not enough of them to go around for information (or even knowledge) collection. What few are available are being used to diagnose suspects with high probability of infection.
and in my state, NC, they have tested over 1500, presumably those they thought would test positive after ruling out flu, and they have found less than 150 cases (and at least 15 of the 122 got it in Israel and came home with it, so they werent actually "here".)
So we test and even then, can only find that less than 10% of suspected respiratory illnesses with some possible contact to Corona have it. 90% have Something else that isn't even flu!
But we've destroyed the economy, let thr commies control our movements, entered a depression and all activties are cancelled, and if I say this out loud, I'm murdering my parents.
鉴于唯一接受测试的人是那些已经生病或已经接触过另一次阳性测试的人，选择偏差是惊人的。
我们不知道这种情况有多普遍，因此我们也不知道这到底有多危险，但我们却出于“谨慎”而破坏了经济和人们的生活。
这是荒唐的。
回复：@ 415原因
That would only be true if we couldn’t learn from the rest of the world. They looked for cases in China and South Korea outside of contacts… did millions of tests. They didn’t find many totally asymptomatic cases. A plausible number might be twice or three times as many infections as cases. 10x or 100x (a true nothing burger) is not plausible. This is a novel zoonosis quite similar to SARS. The IFR might be less than 1%, but not that much less. We don’t know everything but we know this thing will sweep to a huge fraction of the population and collapse the hospitals without drastic action. We need technological countermeasures (testing, monoclonal antibodies) to get back to normal life sooner rather than later.
OK. But then you spend more money to pay testers in ornery Compton than you spend in cooperative Valley Village.
我们可以完成这个。
Replies: @Hemid, @BenKenobi
回复：@George、@Sideshow Bob、@Hypnotoad666
进行随机测试，并且可以选择匿名（即，如果您想要结果，请提供您的联系信息）。如果少数人拒绝，也不会影响统计意义。
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
Bullshit I don’t hate boomers- but the problem is right wing boomers so often lapse into this kind of responsibility ducking BS endemic to black people. The boomer right was extremely adept at implementing measures that help with 401Ks and property values and completely capitulated on social issues.
Just own it- you don’t deserve to die but compared to the average millennial right winger you were far more amenable to 40 pieces of silver and not rocking the boat respectability. It’s like my extremely old right mom says-she hated what was coming but didn’t fight hard enough against because my family could afford private schools. And she end pissed my MBA-RNC dad off by canvassing for Pat B and giving him a max donation in 1992. A lot of the resentment comes from the fact boomers don’t acknowledge their fecklessness on this and instead sneer about liberal arts degrees.
Your hopes of those fellows helping in any way that might hurt their profits are likely naive. I would not bet on it. Last I read they contributed 2.5 millions to the effort between them. “ONE MILLION DOLLARS” and stuff.
This might be in jest, but you, Sailer, have a very low risk of being infected, as for all anyone knows you only currently share your house with your wife and aren’t getting out much, and if infected, you very probably won’t die or even need hospitalization, as you aren’t obese, diabetic, or a smoker, and you have have survived cancer a few decades ago and it hasn’t come back. Anything can happen, but your doctor might agree. You might want to give him a call, if you haven’t already, and ask him how likely, in his informed view, you are to die from Covid-19. I’d almost wager the chances are minuscle. You might be more likely to scrape the skin of your hands off.
Wow, Mr. Sailer, another solid post, and without your patented snark.
So, this week, more GREAT iSteve content here.
1. When Trump or Kellyanne Conway or one of his officials try to popularize the phrase “Chinese virus”, understand it is government propaganda. I wonder if they ever heard of the phrase “Kansas Flu”…”
https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/health-care/article241058181.html
2. On Wednesday, March 18, the White House has issued a “temporary pause” on congressional testimony for senior officials involved in the coronavirus response. Why? Should there not be transparency?
3. “Leadership: Whatever happens, you’re responsible. If it doesn’t happen, you’re responsible”. Donald Trump Nov 8, 2013
“I don’t take responsibility at all”–Donald Trump March 14, 2020
4. Sentiment among Republicans is shifting because there is zero justification to give no-strings-attached cash to industries like the airlines that had the chance to use massive profits and tax cuts to build a rainy day fund, but instead used the money to pad investor returns and executive pay.
5. The Dow has now erased ALL gains since Trump took office. Remember, Trump told us to judge him by the stock market.
6. This nugget from anchor baby Michelle Malkin–“Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that all these “limited government” Republicans in the House, Senate, Trump cabinet and conservative media were up on stage at the ‘Conservative’ Political Action Conference performing conga-line warnings about the scourge of Bernie Sanders-style interventions in the capitalist marketplace?”
7. And the icing on the cake…
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/18/us/trump-coronavirus-statements-timeline.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Trump will be re-elected with a mandate to punish China. Irony is business cycle was near its end anyways you could have had a September dip or a Dow explosion before mid terms. Instead coronavirus popped the bubble and Trump gets a reset.
Get ready to hear the Obama pig (No not Moochelle) starting in May. Gives Trump and an excellent comparison as this isn’t going to kill even half of the swine flu. You guys did your best but Trump’s luck is gonna prevail again. Obama dithered on swine flu and killed 12K that’s all trump needs. All you had to do was not pick Obama’s VP. Lmao.
回复：@Polynikes
Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was. The liquidation of the 11-year Everything Bubble had to happen at some point. The virus was the pin that pricked the bubble, but the absolute disproportionate insanity of the response is all due to the internal dynamics of our societal dysfunction. We have an extremely artificial economy that is levered to the hilt, fragile global supply chains, incompetent leadership, an unruly and restive population of unproductive moochers, zombie corporations, and the eldering Boomers as the pig in the demographic python. This situation was certain to blow up.
We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn't even done anything remotely devastating yet. We can't keep doing Free Introduction every time a new respiratory infection is making the rounds; there just isn't that much cushion left in the system. When the millions of furloughed waitresses and bartenders can't pay their rent or buy groceries, there will be enormous pressure to put a stop to all the otiose emergency theater. Nobody really cares if a few thousand 80-year-olds die now of corona instead of a year or two from now of something else. The few lives saved thus far have been literally purchased at the cost of billions of dollars apiece, and that is manifestly not fair. Remember, the Millennials are the generation the grew up playing 光环. You old folks had better hope that they don't just decide to "activate the rings" and stop the pathogen by destroying its hosts.
What I find most depressing at the moment is the companies that are benefitting from the emergency theater. Amazon, because people cannot find basic necessities at stores and do not want to shop anyway; Uber, because restaurants are closed and drivers are carrying out meals; Netflix, because people are shut in with nothing to do and want to watch the tube. These companies were the very worst of the exploitative, wealth-extracting, rentseeking scumbags during the boom times and now they are enjoying an Indian summer of revenue in the opening phases of the decline, bolstered by hideously low oil prices and buoyed by the non-realisation on the part of the multitude that the good times aren't coming back.
The American century is over. This is it. It will take a decade and a half to play out and by the time the decline is over everything we've taken for granted in the post-war era will seem like ancient history. Take a picture, for you will not see its like again.
Replies: @Corvinus, @Jonathan Mason, @MikeatMikedotMike
“We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn’t even done anything remotely devastating yet设立的区域办事处外，我们在美国也开设了办事处，以便我们为当地客户提供更多的支持。“
You really need to re-read Mr. Sailer’s post and his latest from Taki’s to fully comprehend the severity of the situation.
“Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was.”
You are utterly clueless.
Using number of deaths per day, the US is well behind Italy, although some experts contend that we won't know for sure until the US reaches a higher number of total deaths, such as 200.
The following is Italy’s death count from 1 to 200:
1 2 3 7 11 12 17 21 29 41 52 79 107 148 197 (15 days)
The following is the US death count from 1 to 200 (not there yet):
1 6 9 11 12 15 19 22 26 30 38 41 49 57 68 86 109 125 (18 days)
So, it took Italy 15 days to get to 200 deaths, while it took the US 18 days to get to 125.
US deaths per active cases (with the exception of one spike) is lower than Italy’s and declining. Italy’s deaths per active cases continues to increase. Inasmuch as Italy is currently testing more than the US, that’s another encouraging signal.
回复：@ThreeCranes、@Kratoklastes
vs
Those two series are statistically identical – by which I mean, if you’re modelling the early-stage spread of a pathogen and use a ‘pure’ exponential function, the estimated coefficient for the US is within the 99% CI for the estimate for Italy.
However the critical thing is to look at what is taking people off – i.e., whether people are dying of it, or simply 它。
For example the first ‘covid19’ death in South Florida a day or so ago, was a 95 year old who died of bacterial pneumonia. He also had heart disease, diabetes and lung disease – all chronic.
So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus 本身: it had to do with a fragile elderly man whose system got one shock more than it could cope with. His unconditional age-sex cohort mortality rate is pretty high (in samples of people with his level of underlying chronic illness, it’s over 75%[1]）。
So despite this chap’s unfortunate demise, his contribution to the South Florida covid19 death toll was actually zero.
Similarly, a recent ‘cluster’ of 9 deaths included 7 deaths from stroke, cardiac arrest, and kidney failure, in patients whose underlying conditions included recent histories of stroke, heart attack and kidney disease.
So that’s 8 deaths out of 9 – in an overall US dead’uns sample of a hundred or so – which have been attributed to, but are absolutely not caused by or the direct result of, this weak-ass pathogen.
And for this, the political class – globally – is prepared to stop the heart of the economic system, as if it can be turned back on like a light switch.
Do some estimates of the economic loss that will be caused by the 过剩 deaths of the victims: it’s literally fuck-all.
让我们说 减-histrionic 小鸡 are correct, and the overall effect is to drop ~0.5% of the 健康 50+ population, Pareto-style – i.e., 20% of the population gets it; 20% of of that gets it bad; 20% of those die.
[因b4: 20% cubed is 0.8%, you monster]
Getting it down to 0.005 from 0.008 is just a back-of-the-envelope approach to excluding chronic health problems – we’re only concerned with 健康 50+ people, who are the most productive and whose death contributes disproportionately to system-wide productivity losses. On nett, the chronically-ill are a net drag on output (they divert resources from productive use to ‘keep this person alive just because‘ use).
Anyhow.. 0.5% is almost certainly an order of magnitude too high.
It still results in a big number in person terms (0.005 × 0.34 × 330m = 561,000), but it’s fuck-all in terms of output since labour force participation of the 50+ cohort is low (it follows a kind-of Weibull distribution).
It seems like a cold-hearted calculus, but the ‘correct’ amount to spend on mitigation ought to be the economic loss multiplied by two things:
• a penalty (< 1) to account for the probability that the mitigation works;
• a factor (> 1) to account for the form of Jensen’s Inequality used in economics to account for risk-aversion in utility functionals – 见., E(u(μ)) > u(E(μ))
Think of it as the insurance premium required to reduce the death risk of 0.4% of the workforce back to its virus-free level, using a mechanism that is not guaranteed to work.
As with Y2K, terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrism – and all politically-promulgated public hysterias going all the way back to witches – the actual cost imposed for proposed mitigation is at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the actuarially-fair amount.
All based on selective, biased data that is guaranteed to overestimate the costs of doing nothing, and overestimate the benefits (and underestimate the costs) of the proposed policy.
In almost 30 years of analysing policy, that last paragraph has never ever been shown to be a bad premise.
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[1] Lee et al., “Chronic Conditions and Mortality Among the Oldest Old= 美国公共卫生. 2008 July; 98(7): 1209–1214
Fuck's sake... in my haste to fix a fuckup caused by the way Wordpress is parsing stuff between singleton < and the next singleton > (which excised everything from "to account for" to "a factor") in 5 minutes or less, I replaced the sole remaining '<' (which was in the inequality) with the HTML entity ">" FFS.
It should read E(u(μ)) < u(E(μ)) - for 凹 utility functionals ; arguments that there is any other kind of utility functional are largely specious.
Obviously the parser excises any plaintext between opening and closing "triangle-brackets" that is not part of a set of permitted HTML tags; that's not a reliable way to do tag selection.
"So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus per se..."
That's not true. Similar questions arise in AIDS, which might not kill you directly, but weakens your immunity so that something else can kill you. Coronavirus also causes cytokine storms:
So yeah, the bacterial pneumonia might have done him in, but that doesn't mean coronavirus wasn't a co-conspirator, so to speak, and it's not deceptive to include him in the count. Presumably, at some point they may break out coronavirus-related deaths from coronavirus deaths. (The usual turn of phrase in AIDS is "died of AIDS-related causes".)Moreover, if all the respirators (and hospital beds and nurses and doctors) are being used up and are unavailable, as is happening in Italy, patients will die for all sorts of reasons that are nominally unrelated to coronavirus, but it still played a role.
Admittedly, there's always some arbitrariness as to how you attribute death, especially if other morbidities are present (and there will be plenty of deaths directly or indirectly related to the anti-coronavirus measures now in place) but at some point, this becomes a lot like playing holocaust counting games and saying the inmates in the poorly-run poorly-maintained camp who died of typhus or malnutrition aren't Nazi victims at all. I mean, come on.
回复：@Kratoklastes
Speaking of testing, why are we not hearing more about the need for a test to identify those who have been recently infected, say since January, but are now completely recovered and presumably immune? If the number is large wouldn't it be good to know?
The Seattle area would be a good place to start. Not sure what such a test would look like -- drawing serum & looking for antibodies? -- but it ought to be a priority.
Replies: @epebble, @Luke Lea
在这里，它是： https://tinyurl.com/thz9984
40 million deaths of old folks like me in a population of 7 billion does not compare to 40 million deaths of young people in a populaiton of one billion.
What I'd like to hear people starting to discuss is how we can put capitalism into a dormant state for some amount of time while money stops flowing. How can we keep our institutions in a coma without killing them?
我们看到意大利关于暂停租金的报道。随着大封锁的继续，将就其他什么样的民主安排进行谈判？
I am a prof at a small private college. Refunding room and board for the rest of the year blows a huge hole in our budget that won't be filled. Do we lay off now in anticipation of a small incoming class in the Fall, or cut salaries deeply immediately?
必要行业与非必要行业将会产生巨大的差异性后果。我们如何保持非必要机构的活力？餐饮、教育、娱乐、旅游、服务。难道每个人都拿半薪四个月才能让机构陷入昏迷吗？
回覆：@Steve Sailer，@ vhrm
这就是失业保险的用途。就像钢铁厂或造船厂被解雇一样。
Maybe bring people back one week a month (or some fraction) to keep the lights on and the insurance going. Another way to think about it is “job sharing”.
It would be a challenge for HR but it’s better than just eating the costs, imo.
回复：@George、@Sideshow Bob、@Hypnotoad666
Didn’t Wuhan already serve as a test tube for measuring the infection and mortality rates during an unconstrained ramp up, and a controlled ramp down of the virus?
Were the Chinese unable to properly collect this data? Or do we simply not trust them to tell us what they found?
Early estimates out of Wuhan showed a 2.4% to 3.0% death rate among those infected. Now that things have calmed down, the actual rate looks more like 1.4%. I would presume, though I don't know for sure, that people whose symptoms were so mild that they didn't seek medical care were not counted, so the true death rate among the infected is even lower than 1.4%.
Separately, the health authorities in Italy looked at a random sample (about 19%) of that country's deaths and determined that almost all were among people who were not merely old, but old with other major preexisting conditions like heart disease and emphysema.
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Kratoklastes, @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt
… society misattributes age for knowledge.
FIFYA。
Reverence for people because the lived longer than you did, is as retarded as reverence for people because they squirted out offspring at their physical capacity.
既不是 先验 worthy of reverence.
‘Respect the elders’ is a strategy that gets embedded in cultures when old people are a key source of information – i.e., societies with poorly-developed information-retention systems.
It should be discarded once information-systems are developed enough to ensure near-complete, accurate, low-cost information repositories… retaining it for longer than that is fucking stupid. (It’s actually even worse than the military idea ‘尊重 排名, not the man“）。
Let’s look at corner cases…
• a 90 year old paedophile priest who spent 60 years raping children;
• a woman who squirts out 10 welfare recipients (or worse: 10 bureaucrats… same deleterious economic as welfare recipients, but 5x more so).
Neither deserves the slightest iota of respect.
Work your way from there until you get a set of outcomes that merit respect.
.
Revere (or rather ‘respect’) 有意义的结果.
Getting old is not a meaningful outcome; the important thing is what happens on the way.
Likewise, having offspring is not a meaningful outcome: the important thing is what happens thereafter.
Now, if the woman had instead squirted out 10 kiddies who went on to generate value in excess of the social cost of raising them… I’ll “revere” the fuck out of that woman; her kids are top-decile which makes them pretty special.
Likewise, if a 90 year old had spent a lifetime as a net contributor – i.e., spent an entire working life generating private-sector value added, and was funding their own twilight years (including being able to claw back the real value of their forced SS contributions – plus accrued interest). 那个 guy has my respect.
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People need to learn to respect their 更好 – and to be highly discriminating (and merciless to themselves) in determining who those ‘更好‘ are.
(FWIW: In my taxonomy, no lifetime net-recipient of government policy tilts is my ‘better’ – those whose lifetime household income derives mostly from taxes or legislated privilege).
Anyway, for a reasonably random sample for a country with the number of adults in the U.S. you need about 7,500 samples, chosen by zip code correlated with census demographic data, done within a fairly short period of time. And you need no more than 5 percent refusals. Ain't gonna happen. Pre-cell phone, land line RDD phone surveys by name brand pollsters could achieve this level of accuracy in polls. But in-person medical tests by a government so many distrust?
回复：@The Alarmist
The govt wastes so much more time, money, effort, and political capital for far more trivial matters. It’s worth a try.
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
Replies: @HA, @LondonBob, @unit472, @George
San Francisco cruise ship?
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Kratoklastes, @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt
So in Confucian countries they shut down all social activity every year for flu season or when any viral bug is on the loose? I did not know that. Hats off to Confucian countries.
What I remember off the top of my head is that traditionally in East Asia. the state does not spend welfare on old people because taking care of your elderly parents is supposed to be the job of their children and grandchildren, not the state, according to the Confucian social order, but that works well when the TFR was still around 5 or so, so you have a lot of children to share the labour of elderly care, rather than 1, and East Asians (particularly mainland Chinese) are considerably Westernized now, and so they tend to balk at taking care of their parents and grandparents like their ancestors used to, and also the 1 child policy has made the dependency ratio very lopsided, and the Communists have also done a lot to degrade traditional Confucian values as well in China.
回复：@Jonathan Mason
这就是为什么70岁以上的人不会接受治疗，就像在意大利今天65岁以上的人被拒绝接受治疗一样……他们将拒绝对40岁以上的肥胖者进行治疗，因为40岁的肥胖男性的生存能力与70岁的健康男性相同。
老年人将无法获得呼吸机，因为即使我们让他们使用呼吸机，他们的生存可能性也较小。最好把医院的床位留给那些存活率大于50%的人。大多数戴上呼吸机的老人（60%-80%）都会在几天内死亡，那为什么要把我们的资源浪费在他们身上呢？
通风并不是一种愉快的经历。我父亲51岁得肺炎时被戴上呼吸机。经历过这次经历后，他告诉家人让他死吧，下次得肺炎时不要送他去医院。由于拒绝再次使用呼吸机，他于 60 岁时死于肺炎。
回复：@vhrm
Maybe we could/should look into some modern day iron lungs. They’re not good if your doing surgery, but probably a heck of a lot more comfortable than having a plastic tube down your throat inflating you like a balloon if all you need is breathing support.
(note: i haven’t researched if this is feasible for covid-19 sufferers, but seems like it would be)
But you can't adequately oxygenate someone with significant 急性呼吸窘迫综合征 止 任何 cause with negative pressure. You need positive end-expiratory pressure, which requires intubation to get a proper seal. Or, in less serious cases, 行动计划 是一个 选项.
参见.
So, this week, more GREAT iSteve content here.
1. When Trump or Kellyanne Conway or one of his officials try to popularize the phrase "Chinese virus", understand it is government propaganda. I wonder if they ever heard of the phrase "Kansas Flu"..."
https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/health-care/article241058181.html
2. On Wednesday, March 18, the White House has issued a “temporary pause” on congressional testimony for senior officials involved in the coronavirus response. Why? Should there not be transparency?
3. "Leadership: Whatever happens, you're responsible. If it doesn't happen, you're responsible". Donald Trump Nov 8, 2013
"I don't take responsibility at all"--Donald Trump March 14, 2020
4. Sentiment among Republicans is shifting because there is zero justification to give no-strings-attached cash to industries like the airlines that had the chance to use massive profits and tax cuts to build a rainy day fund, but instead used the money to pad investor returns and executive pay.
5. The Dow has now erased ALL gains since Trump took office. Remember, Trump told us to judge him by the stock market.
6. This nugget from anchor baby Michelle Malkin--"Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that all these "limited government" Republicans in the House, Senate, Trump cabinet and conservative media were up on stage at the 'Conservative' Political Action Conference performing conga-line warnings about the scourge of Bernie Sanders-style interventions in the capitalist marketplace?"
7. And the icing on the cake...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/18/us/trump-coronavirus-statements-timeline.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
回复：@Sam Haysom
Trump will be re-elected with a mandate to punish China. Irony is business cycle was near its end anyways you could have had a September dip or a Dow explosion before mid terms. Instead coronavirus popped the bubble and Trump gets a reset.
Get ready to hear the Obama pig (No not Moochelle) starting in May. Gives Trump and an excellent comparison as this isn’t going to kill even half of the swine flu. You guys did your best but Trump’s luck is gonna prevail again. Obama dithered on swine flu and killed 12K that’s all trump needs. All you had to do was not pick Obama’s VP. Lmao.
12k that summer and fall of 2009. The same publication did a ten year retrospective and estimated a 75k death toll in total. https://www.statnews.com/2019/06/11/h1n1-swine-flu-10-years-later/
So if Trump is comparing himself to Obama, he’s got a little room for error.
意大利的一所大学对发现第一例病例的 Vo 镇的每个人进行了测试。
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
https://twitter.com/aiellotv/status/1240598233535205376?s=21
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/cannot-survive-las-vegas-mayor-asks-governor-to-shorten-business-shutdown-1984653/
Replies: @Smithsonian, @El Dato, @Jenner Ickham Errican, @Prosa123
Mt. Vernon is a predominantly black city, and as our site host has pointed out many times, beauty salons and barber shops can be de facto community centers in some black communities.
What this inquiring mind would like to know is, if we don’t get at least a million deaths before year end, do we get to top off the death toll with public executions of the politicians and oligarchs who condemned us to this not-so-brave world?
Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was. The liquidation of the 11-year Everything Bubble had to happen at some point. The virus was the pin that pricked the bubble, but the absolute disproportionate insanity of the response is all due to the internal dynamics of our societal dysfunction. We have an extremely artificial economy that is levered to the hilt, fragile global supply chains, incompetent leadership, an unruly and restive population of unproductive moochers, zombie corporations, and the eldering Boomers as the pig in the demographic python. This situation was certain to blow up.
We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn't even done anything remotely devastating yet. We can't keep doing Free Introduction every time a new respiratory infection is making the rounds; there just isn't that much cushion left in the system. When the millions of furloughed waitresses and bartenders can't pay their rent or buy groceries, there will be enormous pressure to put a stop to all the otiose emergency theater. Nobody really cares if a few thousand 80-year-olds die now of corona instead of a year or two from now of something else. The few lives saved thus far have been literally purchased at the cost of billions of dollars apiece, and that is manifestly not fair. Remember, the Millennials are the generation the grew up playing 光环. You old folks had better hope that they don't just decide to "activate the rings" and stop the pathogen by destroying its hosts.
What I find most depressing at the moment is the companies that are benefitting from the emergency theater. Amazon, because people cannot find basic necessities at stores and do not want to shop anyway; Uber, because restaurants are closed and drivers are carrying out meals; Netflix, because people are shut in with nothing to do and want to watch the tube. These companies were the very worst of the exploitative, wealth-extracting, rentseeking scumbags during the boom times and now they are enjoying an Indian summer of revenue in the opening phases of the decline, bolstered by hideously low oil prices and buoyed by the non-realisation on the part of the multitude that the good times aren't coming back.
The American century is over. This is it. It will take a decade and a half to play out and by the time the decline is over everything we've taken for granted in the post-war era will seem like ancient history. Take a picture, for you will not see its like again.
Replies: @Corvinus, @Jonathan Mason, @MikeatMikedotMike
What an inhumane attitude!
You appear to be ignoring the fact that there has been a coup d’etat by the infection control nurses and germophobes who have taken over the Three Ring Circus, formerly known as the US Congress and Administration.
当然 this will be standard procedure every flu season from now on. The school year will now be from June to Thanksgiving only and airline flights will only be available during the school year. Christmas, Easter and Valentine’s Day have already been canceled.
The US will be activating sanctions against any foreign person or company that breaches infection control rules during the interdicted period and will shoot down incoming airliners trying to land at Orlando Disney Airport, JFK Jr. airport New York, Donald Trump Nationalist Airport at Washington, Atlanta Kardashian Airport (AKA), or Miami Domestic Airport airport (MAD), during Spring Break.
The Supreme Court will announce that the original text of the First Amendment had some very small writing at the bottom that had never been noticed so, that it now actually reads “国会不得制定有关宗教信仰或禁止其自由行使的法律； 或剥夺言论自由或新闻自由； 或人民和平集会和向政府提出申诉的权利 unless the President says there is a virus in the land, in which case the above is null and void and the penalty for breach thereof shall be excommunication and/or death.”
Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba…
I love Big Brother. Don't you?
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/03/17/fox-news-coronavirus-coverage-carlson-hannity-watters-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-news/
"Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba…"
Ah Ha! Another naive cell phone user.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W3ugTv877I
回复：@McKenna先生
Didn't Wuhan already serve as a test tube for measuring the infection and mortality rates during an unconstrained ramp up, and a controlled ramp down of the virus?
Were the Chinese unable to properly collect this data? Or do we simply not trust them to tell us what they found?
回复：@ Prosa123
Early estimates out of Wuhan showed a 2.4% to 3.0% death rate among those infected. Now that things have calmed down, the actual rate looks more like 1.4%. I would presume, though I don’t know for sure, that people whose symptoms were so mild that they didn’t seek medical care were not counted, so the true death rate among the infected is even lower than 1.4%.
Separately, the health authorities in Italy looked at a random sample (about 19%) of that country’s deaths and determined that almost all were among people who were not merely old, but old with other major preexisting conditions like heart disease and emphysema.
What we do know is that of the big three outbreaks, in Wuhan, Lombardy, and Qom, Chinese who had recently been in Wuhan were present in high numbers. What we don't know is what the Chinese percentage of the Italian cases and deaths are. Or of the American cases.
回复：@Peter Lund
丹麦首批 4 名死亡者之一是一名 62 岁的非洲人，他的非洲名字叫 Kwabena Sarfo-Maanu。去年 XNUMX 月，他的心脏和肺部出现血栓，随后出现心脏骤停和（人工？）昏迷。在昏迷期间，他感染了肺炎。当他感染病毒时，他刚刚康复。
Did he die of the virus? Hard to say, really. But he was definitely African. He fled from Ghana’s military dictatorship to Denmark as a young man because he had connections: his brother was Ghana’s ambassador in Denmark.
这里的第一例死亡是一名患有心脏病的 80 岁男子。他死于心脏病。他是死于病毒吗？或许。也许不会。
If you think the answer is 'Yes', then the correct apples-to-apples death rate for normal seasonal flu increases dramatically - it makes covid19 look even shittier (as a pathogen) by comparison.
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Currently, any death from "respiratory illness + seasonal flu", gets counted as a death 止 seasonal flu.
So if someone dies of bacterial pneumonia, and they also have the 'flu, it's a 'flu death'.
That way of counting deaths amounts to ~45,000 a year (in the US alone) - that means 10,000 deaths a week in 'peak' 'flu season.
Flu season is canonically 13 weeks; the peak is only 2-3 weeks - see CDC's weekly tallies for how the thing evolves during the season.
In the last week for which the data has been prepared, 7.1% of all deaths were due to 'P&I' (P肺炎 和 （其实 or) Influenza)).
A lot of people object to that method, saying that it overstates the extent of seasonal flu deaths in a bid to encourage people to get flu shots.
''something else + flu' deaths are seasonal flu's 银行 - but flu will not get credited for RBIs where the actual cause of death was a non-respiratory comorbidity: the CDC uses data based on ICD-10, and there's no way 'flu is on the death certificate as a CoD when some 65yo guy with a history of heart disease dies after a massive heart attack.
Add in 'heart attack + seasonal flu'，'stroke + seasonal flu'，'anything else + seasonal flu', and the number of deaths from normal flu will be even larger.
I think the problem here is largely about the culture and ideology of our medical system. The American medical industry is oriented around rationing treatment and making patients who are not from favored groups jump through numerous bureaucratic hoops to get anything. The system is designed to be intimidating in many ways so people don’t seek treatment. Doctors care far more about rigidly enforcing their own power and privilege than they care about treating patients. The system wants patients to pay as much money as possible, while also having no power or ability to get treatment on their own, so most doctors in America have a deep attitude of hostility towards low tech solutions like wearing masks or using old, cheap drugs that work.
绝对真实。
Why do we import doctors due to "doctor shortage"? Because AMA very carefully assures that American Medical School is a good in very short supply.
我的孩子们上学的地方 教师全年领取工资。我相信这是常态。预计要工作 X 个上学天数。
我不知道合同到底写了什么——甚至与政府雇员签订合同都是荒谬的。但无论如何让他们回去工作。我厌倦了听到这些咩咩叫的老师——还有更糟糕的官员——现状。 （对政府就业的抱怨是最底层的。）我认为，如果老师们在这场危机之后不回去工作……如果这是学校董事会的决定的话，这种态度将会蔓延到每个人。他们不想工作——解雇他们。
回复：@education realist
“我的孩子们上学的地方，老师们全年都有薪水。我相信这是常态。预计要工作X天的上学时间。”
他们在 X 个上学日领取工资，并且可以选择付款方式。
根据法律，大多数州在发生大流行时向教师支付工资。因此，唯一的选择是付钱让他们尝试远程教孩子，或者付钱让他们坐在家里，然后再付钱让他们在暑假工作。
此外，不仅仅是教师，还有保管人员、护士、考勤员和其他所有人。联邦工作人员也是如此。我们都得到报酬。
You appear to be ignoring the fact that there has been a coup d'etat by the infection control nurses and germophobes who have taken over the Three Ring Circus, formerly known as the US Congress and Administration.
当然 this will be standard procedure every flu season from now on. The school year will now be from June to Thanksgiving only and airline flights will only be available during the school year. Christmas, Easter and Valentine's Day have already been canceled.
The US will be activating sanctions against any foreign person or company that breaches infection control rules during the interdicted period and will shoot down incoming airliners trying to land at Orlando Disney Airport, JFK Jr. airport New York, Donald Trump Nationalist Airport at Washington, Atlanta Kardashian Airport (AKA), or Miami Domestic Airport airport (MAD), during Spring Break.
The Supreme Court will announce that the original text of the First Amendment had some very small writing at the bottom that had never been noticed so, that it now actually reads “国会不得制定有关宗教信仰或禁止其自由行使的法律； 或剥夺言论自由或新闻自由； 或人民和平集会和向政府提出申诉的权利 unless the President says there is a virus in the land, in which case the above is null and void and the penalty for breach thereof shall be excommunication and/or death.”
Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba...
回复：@Jonathan Mason，@Joe Stalin
I love Big Brother. Don’t you?
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/03/17/fox-news-coronavirus-coverage-carlson-hannity-watters-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-news/
是的。
你没有测试。 身体上。
你没有钱进行测试，多亏了自由企业，这将花费一大笔钱。 耶大制药！
您没有强制人们参加考试的法律框架。 您在某些地方的人民仇恨和不服从联邦政府的历史由来已久。 你最大的城市的大片地区是有剪贴板和医疗设备的认真人的禁区。 您所做的任何测试都不会真正随机。
你的国家长期以来一直不信任和憎恨它的政府，以至于唯一有点类似运作的政府机构就是军队。 完成这项测试的唯一方法是派遣军队。根据你自己的法律，这将是非法的，而且一般来说，军队在解决平民问题和人口问题时做得不是很好（这就是为什么每个军事独裁政权都是一团糟）。
但最重要的是——检测对阻止疾病的传播无济于事，无能为力。 它什么也做不了。
However the critical thing is to look at what is taking people off - i.e., whether people are dying of it, or simply 它。
For example the first 'covid19' death in South Florida a day or so ago, was a 95 year old who died of bacterial pneumonia. He also had heart disease, diabetes and lung disease - all chronic.
So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus 本身: it had to do with a fragile elderly man whose system got one shock more than it could cope with. His unconditional age-sex cohort mortality rate is pretty high (in samples of people with his level of underlying chronic illness, it's over 75%[1]）。
So despite this chap's unfortunate demise, his contribution to the South Florida covid19 death toll was actually zero.
Similarly, a recent 'cluster' of 9 deaths included 7 deaths from stroke, cardiac arrest, and kidney failure, in patients whose underlying conditions included recent histories of stroke, heart attack and kidney disease.
So that's 8 deaths out of 9 - in an overall US dead'uns sample of a hundred or so - which have been attributed to, but are absolutely not caused by or the direct result of, this weak-ass pathogen.
And for this, the political class - globally - is prepared to stop the heart of the economic system, as if it can be turned back on like a light switch.
Do some estimates of the economic loss that will be caused by the 过剩 deaths of the victims: it's literally fuck-all.
让我们说 减-histrionic 小鸡 are correct, and the overall effect is to drop ~0.5% of the 健康 50+ population, Pareto-style - i.e., 20% of the population gets it; 20% of of that gets it bad; 20% of those die.
[因b4: 20% cubed is 0.8%, you monster]
Getting it down to 0.005 from 0.008 is just a back-of-the-envelope approach to excluding chronic health problems - we're only concerned with 健康 50+ people, who are the most productive and whose death contributes disproportionately to system-wide productivity losses. On nett, the chronically-ill are a net drag on output (they divert resources from productive use to 'keep this person alive just because' use).
Anyhow.. 0.5% is almost certainly an order of magnitude too high.
It still results in a big number in person terms (0.005 × 0.34 × 330m = 561,000), but it's fuck-all in terms of output since labour force participation of the 50+ cohort is low (it follows a kind-of Weibull distribution).
It seems like a cold-hearted calculus, but the 'correct' amount to spend on mitigation ought to be the economic loss multiplied by two things:
• a penalty (< 1) to account for the probability that the mitigation works;
• a factor (> 1) to account for the form of Jensen's Inequality used in economics to account for risk-aversion in utility functionals - 见., E(u(μ)) > u(E(μ))
Think of it as the insurance premium required to reduce the death risk of 0.4% of the workforce back to its virus-free level, using a mechanism that is not guaranteed to work.
As with Y2K, terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrism - and all politically-promulgated public hysterias going all the way back to witches - the actual cost imposed for proposed mitigation is at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the actuarially-fair amount.
All based on selective, biased data that is guaranteed to overestimate the costs of doing nothing, and overestimate the benefits (and underestimate the costs) of the proposed policy.
In almost 30 years of analysing policy, that last paragraph has never ever been shown to be a bad premise.
.
[1] Lee et al., "Chronic Conditions and Mortality Among the Oldest Old" 美国公共卫生. 2008 July; 98(7): 1209–1214
回复：@Kratoklastes，@HA
Fuck’s sake… in my haste to fix a fuckup caused by the way WordPress is parsing stuff between singleton < and the next singleton > (which excised everything from “to account for” to “a factor”) in 5 minutes or less, I replaced the sole remaining ‘<' (which was in the inequality) with the HTML entity ">” FFS.
It should read E(u(μ)) < u(E(μ)) – for 凹 utility functionals ; arguments that there is any other kind of utility functional are largely specious.
Obviously the parser excises any plaintext between opening and closing “triangle-brackets” that is not part of a set of permitted HTML tags; that’s not a reliable way to do tag selection.
"So we are flying blind and have decided to condemn the economy to a likely depression from which it will take years to recover. The trade off may be gaining a few quality adjusted life years for some old people vs general immiseration for everyone else."
The tragedy is we can (could have at this point) achieve both: maintain the Trump Miracle AND gain years for decrepit oldsters. It's super simples: oldsters self-quarantine until summer. It is a win-win. Modern tech allows geezer-Americans to see and hear their chillens and grand chillens during The Duration.
But coronahoax is in reality Joe Biden's election gambit, where Democratic governors have assembled an enormous excrement sammich and forced us all to take a bite.
回复：@约翰·伯恩斯，葛底斯堡游击队
Ironic that you have been dubbed a troll by the likes of Corvinus.
The US response to SARS CoV-2 may have the effect of erecting a southern border wall.
Mexico may end up paying for it after all because the restaurant/bar jobs just evaporated, presumably sending all the workers back home.
This is like lowering the speed limit to 10 mph because we suddenly discover that an average of 100 people die every day in the US in traffic accidents. Maybe a better analogy would be if we banned driving altogether. Even with the data, the problem is that most people – especially progressives – are empathizers rather than systematizers when it comes to public policy.
There’s a speed limit that optimizes the amount and quality of human life, and at this point in time the coronavirus response is well below that limit (ie too cautious). We need to get moving, even if some people have to die.
That's a decent analogy.
Outside observers seem quite confident in China's data. They have been crushing their economy for a reason.
If nothing else Iran is a stark warning for the perils of just letting it rip. There are videos of people collapsing in the street. MEK, the best organized opposition group, reported 2,500 deaths already in Qom on Sunday.
https://english.mojahedin.org/i/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-news-20200317
回复：@ben tillman
Only one in 700 sick people tested positive? That can’t be right.
你是对的。
Everyone who is sick be careful! Were running out of hospital beds. One in seven hundred of you could have avoided being a bit sick if only we'd locked everyone in the country in their homes for an undefined length of time!
Sorry not trying to be judgemental, but maybe this has to do with the way that Western societies do not value old people at all and treat them like crap socially? Hence your attitude as a Westerner? In Confucian societies where elderly are revered, this type attitude would be unnaceptable.
Replies: @XYZ (no Mr.), @Kratoklastes, @Jonathan Mason, @TomSchmidt
Western societies do not value old people at all
嗯...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/07/report-federal-government-spends-more-elderly-than-kids/677011002/
Spending on kids fell from $405 billion in 2010, or 10.7% percent of the budget, to $377 billion in 2016, or 9.8% of the budget.
The elderly are gettingmore of the pie ($1.4 trillion, or 37%), while children are getting less ($377 billion, or 9.8%).
Yeah, the USA doesn’t value old people at all.
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
Sadly, that’s not true. Most ideological conservative Boomers were eager supporters of globalism. Look at the Reagan/Dubya worship. There was much more skepticism from both the Silents and the Xers about the wisdom of free trade, outsourcing, high immigration and wars in the Middle East. There really is a peak for support of the current order among the generation of white men who are now in their 60’s and 70’s. I’ve have seen this IRL for 30 years.
Part of what is driving anger towards boomers on the dissident right is the “I don’t see race” type rhetoric from these people. Another factor is the over the top philosemitism. You go on Free Republic, where the boomers are and you see many of these people genuinely care more about Israel than America. Boomers like that need to be confronted and called out more, not less.
Since Trump, we have an influx of boomer conservatives into alt-right online spaces. They tend to be very obnoxious, coming into our spaces with no contrition about being wrong in the past. They show up and start pushing their confused nonsense about “it’s not really about race, it’s just culture” and “why are you guys so mad at Jews, they are God’s chosen people who must be worshipped.” They generally have a hard time getting the alt-right zeitgeist. They especially struggle with being critical towards American style capitalism and militarism. Most of us Xers and younger would like our own spaces without boomers.
Also, for many of us, this personal. We had parents, teachers, pastors, bosses etc. who were boomer type conservatives who called us “racists” for not wanting mass immigration and things like that. What goes around comes around. Boomer conservatives had no pity on the younger white people whose lives were destroyed by immigration and minority worship. We were told to “suck it up, we don’t care about your suffering,” and “stop blaming immigrants, who are better than you anyway.” When the whip is in our hand, we will repay them and nothing will stop it.
I’m not sure why you brought up “small hats.” Small hats are modern Orthodox Jews.
"They show up and start pushing their confused nonsense about “it’s not really about race, it’s just culture” and “why are you guys so mad at Jews, they are God’s chosen people who must be worshipped.”
This is correct. They (we -- I'm technically a boomer, born in '63, but in truth I'm an early Gen X'er. We got hit in the face with all the crap our much older brothers and sisters rolled down at us) were SO EAGER to be seen as "colorblind conservatives" so they could strut around and get lots of Virtue Signaling headpats from their hippie buddies.
They also bought into the hooey that the likes of Hal Lindsay ("Late Great Planet Earth) peddled, to wit, that the establishment of the political entity known as State of Israel with Jews in it in the Middle East in '48 meant that Jesus was coming back Any Day Now. THAT meant they'd not have to go through all that tedious business of dying, and since they're Boomers and they're special, of COURSE they'd be the generation that doesn't have to face mortality. I mean, natch.
Now, OTOH, if Israel were to cease to exist, that would blow up Hal Lindsay's whole theory, which would mean mortality for them after all, and everybody knows THAT would be just unacceptable. So, "Stand with Israel," send them my tax money, worship Jews as God's Chosen, it is.
... I know all this. I watched my older siblings do exactly this stuff.
丹麦首批 4 名死亡者之一是一名 62 岁的非洲人，他的非洲名字叫 Kwabena Sarfo-Maanu。去年 XNUMX 月，他的心脏和肺部出现血栓，随后出现心脏骤停和（人工？）昏迷。在昏迷期间，他感染了肺炎。当他感染病毒时，他刚刚康复。
他是死于病毒吗？很难说，真的。但他绝对是非洲人。他年轻时从加纳的军事独裁统治逃到丹麦，因为他有关系：他的兄弟是加纳驻丹麦大使。
这里的第一例死亡是一名患有心脏病的 80 岁男子。他死于心脏病。他是死于病毒吗？或许。也许不会。
回复：@Kratoklastes
没有
If you think the answer is ‘Yes’, then the correct apples-to-apples death rate for normal seasonal flu increases dramatically – it makes covid19 look even shittier (as a pathogen) by comparison.
.
Currently, any death from “respiratory illness + seasonal flu“, gets counted as a death 止 seasonal flu.
So if someone dies of bacterial pneumonia, and they also have the ‘flu, it’s a ‘flu death“。
That way of counting deaths amounts to ~45,000 a year (in the US alone) – that means 10,000 deaths a week in ‘peak’ ‘flu season.
Flu season is canonically 13 weeks; the peak is only 2-3 weeks – see CDC’s weekly tallies for how the thing evolves during the season.
In the last week for which the data has been prepared, 7.1% of all deaths were due to ‘P&I’ (P肺炎 和 （其实 or) Influenza)).
A lot of people object to that method, saying that it overstates the extent of seasonal flu deaths in a bid to encourage people to get flu shots.
左侧工具栏上的'something else + flu‘ deaths are seasonal flu’s 银行 – but flu will not get credited for RBIs where the actual cause of death was a non-respiratory comorbidity: the CDC uses data based on ICD-10, and there’s no way ‘flu is on the death certificate as a CoD when some 65yo guy with a history of heart disease dies after a massive heart attack.
Add in ‘heart attack + seasonal flu'，'stroke + seasonal flu'，'anything else + seasonal flu‘, and the number of deaths from normal flu will be even larger.
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
Replies: @HA, @LondonBob, @unit472, @George
https://sfist.com/2020/03/19/many-grand-princess-passengers-refused-covid-19-tests/
Like I said Diamond Princess situation not replicable.
Before this is all over, nobody will even remember what Covid-19 was. The liquidation of the 11-year Everything Bubble had to happen at some point. The virus was the pin that pricked the bubble, but the absolute disproportionate insanity of the response is all due to the internal dynamics of our societal dysfunction. We have an extremely artificial economy that is levered to the hilt, fragile global supply chains, incompetent leadership, an unruly and restive population of unproductive moochers, zombie corporations, and the eldering Boomers as the pig in the demographic python. This situation was certain to blow up.
We have already destroyed 30% of the notional value of the US stock market, shuttered thousands of businesses and plunged the world into a depression, and the virus hasn't even done anything remotely devastating yet. We can't keep doing Free Introduction every time a new respiratory infection is making the rounds; there just isn't that much cushion left in the system. When the millions of furloughed waitresses and bartenders can't pay their rent or buy groceries, there will be enormous pressure to put a stop to all the otiose emergency theater. Nobody really cares if a few thousand 80-year-olds die now of corona instead of a year or two from now of something else. The few lives saved thus far have been literally purchased at the cost of billions of dollars apiece, and that is manifestly not fair. Remember, the Millennials are the generation the grew up playing 光环. You old folks had better hope that they don't just decide to "activate the rings" and stop the pathogen by destroying its hosts.
What I find most depressing at the moment is the companies that are benefitting from the emergency theater. Amazon, because people cannot find basic necessities at stores and do not want to shop anyway; Uber, because restaurants are closed and drivers are carrying out meals; Netflix, because people are shut in with nothing to do and want to watch the tube. These companies were the very worst of the exploitative, wealth-extracting, rentseeking scumbags during the boom times and now they are enjoying an Indian summer of revenue in the opening phases of the decline, bolstered by hideously low oil prices and buoyed by the non-realisation on the part of the multitude that the good times aren't coming back.
The American century is over. This is it. It will take a decade and a half to play out and by the time the decline is over everything we've taken for granted in the post-war era will seem like ancient history. Take a picture, for you will not see its like again.
Replies: @Corvinus, @Jonathan Mason, @MikeatMikedotMike
说得好。
Study from Italy shows that a whopping 99% of a sample of *2,500* Chinese virus deaths had at least one existing illness, with 75% having at least two illnesses:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Average age of death: 79.5
Number of deaths under age 50: 17
测试施密斯特。我完全赞成对公共卫生威胁采取合理的预防和治疗措施。冠状病毒®不是这样的东西。真实的测试会揭示这一点，因此史蒂夫所描述的真实测试将不会被允许。
回复：@UK、@gate666、@野雁霍华德
也许。
My thought was that the new dependent class will suddenly be offered jobs by the military.
Then, the US will suddenly be in a major war with Iran. Or China.
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
这将四舍五入到 19%。你已经落后了 10 倍。
回复：@jsm
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
That would round to .19%. You are off by a factor of 10.”
？
.00188 rounds to .0019. He’s off by a factor of 10, all right, but you’re off by a factor of 100.
Do you understand percentages?
Question: 1 is what percentage of 1?
Answer: 100%.
Quick and dirty converting simple quotients into percentages: move the decimal point over two places to the right. So if the quotient is .0019, the percentage is .19%.
And you're off by a parenthesis. And a factor of 100. Be careful when you're correcting someone.
You appear to be ignoring the fact that there has been a coup d'etat by the infection control nurses and germophobes who have taken over the Three Ring Circus, formerly known as the US Congress and Administration.
当然 this will be standard procedure every flu season from now on. The school year will now be from June to Thanksgiving only and airline flights will only be available during the school year. Christmas, Easter and Valentine's Day have already been canceled.
The US will be activating sanctions against any foreign person or company that breaches infection control rules during the interdicted period and will shoot down incoming airliners trying to land at Orlando Disney Airport, JFK Jr. airport New York, Donald Trump Nationalist Airport at Washington, Atlanta Kardashian Airport (AKA), or Miami Domestic Airport airport (MAD), during Spring Break.
The Supreme Court will announce that the original text of the First Amendment had some very small writing at the bottom that had never been noticed so, that it now actually reads “国会不得制定有关宗教信仰或禁止其自由行使的法律； 或剥夺言论自由或新闻自由； 或人民和平集会和向政府提出申诉的权利 unless the President says there is a virus in the land, in which case the above is null and void and the penalty for breach thereof shall be excommunication and/or death.”
Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba...
回复：@Jonathan Mason，@Joe Stalin
“Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba…”
Ah Ha! Another naive cell phone user.
Heh. "Israel is a Democracy" the man starts out.
You know right there trouble is close behind.
回复：@Jim Don Bob
True. Just think what a die off of the 60+ crowd would do for the solvency of SS and Medicare!
OK, boomer. Time to go.
Right! We stand to save many billions and it'll only cost us many trillions.
Part of what is driving anger towards boomers on the dissident right is the "I don't see race" type rhetoric from these people. Another factor is the over the top philosemitism. You go on Free Republic, where the boomers are and you see many of these people genuinely care more about Israel than America. Boomers like that need to be confronted and called out more, not less.
Since Trump, we have an influx of boomer conservatives into alt-right online spaces. They tend to be very obnoxious, coming into our spaces with no contrition about being wrong in the past. They show up and start pushing their confused nonsense about "it's not really about race, it's just culture" and "why are you guys so mad at Jews, they are God's chosen people who must be worshipped." They generally have a hard time getting the alt-right zeitgeist. They especially struggle with being critical towards American style capitalism and militarism. Most of us Xers and younger would like our own spaces without boomers.
Also, for many of us, this personal. We had parents, teachers, pastors, bosses etc. who were boomer type conservatives who called us "racists" for not wanting mass immigration and things like that. What goes around comes around. Boomer conservatives had no pity on the younger white people whose lives were destroyed by immigration and minority worship. We were told to "suck it up, we don't care about your suffering," and "stop blaming immigrants, who are better than you anyway." When the whip is in our hand, we will repay them and nothing will stop it.
I'm not sure why you brought up "small hats." Small hats are modern Orthodox Jews.
回复：@jsm
“They show up and start pushing their confused nonsense about “it’s not really about race, it’s just culture” and “why are you guys so mad at Jews, they are God’s chosen people who must be worshipped.”
This is correct. They (we — I’m technically a boomer, born in ’63, but in truth I’m an early Gen X’er. We got hit in the face with all the crap our much older brothers and sisters rolled down at us) were SO EAGER to be seen as “colorblind conservatives” so they could strut around and get lots of Virtue Signaling headpats from their hippie buddies.
They also bought into the hooey that the likes of Hal Lindsay (“Late Great Planet Earth) peddled, to wit, that the establishment of the political entity known as State of Israel with Jews in it in the Middle East in ’48 meant that Jesus was coming back Any Day Now. THAT meant they’d not have to go through all that tedious business of dying, and since they’re Boomers and they’re special, of COURSE they’d be the generation that doesn’t have to face mortality. I mean, natch.
Now, OTOH, if Israel were to cease to exist, that would blow up Hal Lindsay’s whole theory, which would mean mortality for them after all, and everybody knows THAT would be just unacceptable. So, “Stand with Israel,” send them my tax money, worship Jews as God’s Chosen, it is.
… I know all this. I watched my older siblings do exactly this stuff.
Tests are precious now; not enough of them to go around for information (or even knowledge) collection. What few are available are being used to diagnose suspects with high probability of infection.
回复：@Alice
and in my state, NC, they have tested over 1500, presumably those they thought would test positive after ruling out flu, and they have found less than 150 cases (and at least 15 of the 122 got it in Israel and came home with it, so they werent actually “here”.)
So we test and even then, can only find that less than 10% of suspected respiratory illnesses with some possible contact to Corona have it. 90% have Something else that isn’t even flu!
But we’ve destroyed the economy, let thr commies control our movements, entered a depression and all activties are cancelled, and if I say this out loud, I’m murdering my parents.
What about the San Francisco cruise ship? What are the numbers on that?
Replies: @HA, @LondonBob, @unit472, @George
钻石公主
总712
死了7
回收 527
活跃的178
严重14的
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
回复：@jsm
绝对真实。
Why do we import doctors due to “doctor shortage”? Because AMA very carefully assures that American Medical School is a good in very short supply.
回覆：@UK
你是对的。
Everyone who is sick be careful! Were running out of hospital beds. One in seven hundred of you could have avoided being a bit sick if only we’d locked everyone in the country in their homes for an undefined length of time!
The Prince of Monaco has it. The Head of EU negotiations has it. It is truly a disease of the rich and powerful…or it is only then getting tested? I think it is really quite safe to bet on the latter.
Omg. It isn't a hoax, it is a panic. Those who truck in such conspiracy theories are Dunning-Krugering it. They think that if they were in charge they would never mess things up as badly as the response to this virus has been messed up. They are too ignorant and stupid to even begin to release how complicated a problem this and others are.
回复：@Brian Reilly
UK, It is a panic over a hoax. A hoax being used on purpose, for nefarious reasons by our corporate and governmental (but I repeat myself) rulers. This is a scam, a huge theft, an embezzlement, the biggest sting in the world, use any metaphor you like. What it is NOT is an uncommon lot of people dying from a virus that is going around.
I would not do better if I were in charge, because I would never be associated with a global scam like this. I am a working class stiff and am reasonably honest, not given to theft or envy. The reaction to this small time virus has been to purposefully lie, prevaricate, obfuscate, and frighten, not to protect public health. The people that are participating in this scam better hope and pray that people like me stay small in number, or their days may be small in number. It is only a hoax, but it is damnably effective, thus far.
It isn't a hoax. I know plenty of people who talk to Britain's leading experts in this field. None of those experts think it is a hoax. They simply don't have enough data and are going with the general feeling.
On the other hand, you know very little about organising anything and so you think this would be something that could be organised as a hoax.
This is why people like you will never take power. By definition you know nothing about anything relevant. It ia a sort of tragedy - if you were the hero that is, rather than just a clueless bystander advertising his ignorance.
How do you think this could ever be pulled off as a hoax?
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
That would round to .19%. You are off by a factor of 10."
？
.00188 rounds to .0019. He's off by a factor of 10, all right, but you're off by a factor of 100.
Replies: @FPD72, @Rex Little, @ben tillman
Do you understand percentages?
Question: 1 is what percentage of 1?
Answer: 100%.
Quick and dirty converting simple quotients into percentages: move the decimal point over two places to the right. So if the quotient is .0019, the percentage is .19%.
There has to be a term for it if it does not exists: “an intellectual whore”. It goes like this:
– A guy has a nice idea, enunciates it eloquently.
– The guy is hailed as an intellectual messiah, a prophet of the enlightened age.
– The guy loves the limelight. Really, really loves.
– The guy is so in love with it, he is willing to say or do almost anything to keep it up.
– Unfortunately, nice and original ideas are very hard to come by.
– So the guy becomes “edgy”, “controversial” and “contrarian” – starting to spout all kinds of pure bullshit just to stay “relevant”.
Many have gone down this tube, most recently Taleb and now Ioannidis. That in this latest case Ioannidis is full of shit should be obvious at the very least from two most recent observations:
1. His claim that the current pandemics is no more than a noise in the regular flu season:
– That is patently false because the numbers and rates of deaths in several locales is unprecedented.
2. His evidence-free claim that COVID-19 is not very infectious and should not be feared if you are under conditions that maximize your chances to be infected by either aerosols or fomites route:
– alas, folks in NY have learned how false that is in the past two weeks…
One might even adopt the term “intellectual yet idiot” (IYI) for the phenomenon – except for the fact that the guy who coined it (Taleb) is no different from other opportunist hacks.
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
That would round to .19%. You are off by a factor of 10."
？
.00188 rounds to .0019. He's off by a factor of 10, all right, but you're off by a factor of 100.
Replies: @FPD72, @Rex Little, @ben tillman
No, he’s not. .0019 is the same as .19%.
1）尽管真实数据广泛存在，但我们的大多数信息都是奇怪的“谣言”。病毒的后果就像大脚怪：人们相信，人们说他们相信，但为什么我们没有任何照片？
来自意大利的最引人注目的信息是一位急诊医生的匿名博客文章，描述了当前的分诊（没有基于年龄、既往癌症和糖尿病等的医疗保健），描述了医院床位的短缺，尸体像木材一样堆放。然而，实际上地球上的每个人都拥有一部带摄像头的手机。这家医院在哪里？意大利北部并不是西方人不敢涉足的刚果最深处。也不是铁幕后面的中国。它是发达国家的一部分。如果尸体像木柴一样堆放，CNN 就会在那里，或者护士的手机照片会到处都是。他们在哪里？
同样地（至少在罗德·德雷尔的网站上——他引用了怀俄明州所有地方的一位医生的说法）：我们有一些轶事医生的帖子称，医院不堪重负，个人防护装备短缺，医务人员过度劳累，未经检测的患者早在政府出现症状之前就出现了症状（而且，当然，特朗普！）承认了这一点。
再说一遍：尸体在哪里？怀俄明州的新闻记者不能参观一家医院并向我们展示混乱的情况吗？
媒体上的轶事文章告诉我们，情况是多么紧张，生活将永远不一样。但这些轶事似乎都描述了……隔离生活的压力（我的家人正在这样做，坦率地说，情况并没有那么糟糕）。这很奇怪，不出去也很奇怪，但其实也没有那么糟糕。附近还没有“把你死掉的”独轮车给我们——只有孩子们在网上做作业，然后用剩下的半天时间玩电子游戏。
我熟悉的轶事（一位在学术医院工作的亲密家庭成员）都表明压力和混乱是由对病毒的反应引起的，而不是病毒本身。医学生不再工作——因为他们没有任何个人防护装备。为什么没有个人防护装备？因为它被囤积起来，而不是因为它被用完（我的州有很少的冠状病毒病例）。常规或例行的医疗程序正在被取消。不是因为他们没有时间：因为正在为尚不存在的冠状病毒受害者节省资源。造成这些问题的是对流行病恐惧的反应，而不是对病毒本身的反应。
谁正在死去？我有一种模糊的感觉，基本上都是老年人。新文章坚称事实并非如此，但并没有描述受影响的年轻人的健康状况（已有疾病？）。有助于我们理解的信息并不存在——可能是故意的。
最后（坦率地说，也是最重要的）：中国。中国自 1 月（第一个病例？）或 3,200 月 XNUMX 日左右（重大、公认的情况）起就出现了该病毒。他们在它被认为是大流行之前就已经感染了它。他们把它放在人口稠密的地方。他们在不健康、受污染的人群中携带这种病毒。他们比我们早两个月。看起来（如果你用谷歌搜索中国和新病例）他们的新病例数量已经达到顶峰。他们有……XNUMX人死亡。
我想我们会在接下来的两周内找到答案。
不过，我确实预计 6 或 8 个月后会出现奇怪的情况。媒体和民主党试图将其变成“特朗普失败”的局面，将会陷入困境。
CDC 预测有 1-2 百万人死亡（最坏的情况）。
如果他们是对的，那么这就是一场世界大流行病，特朗普所做或没有做的任何事情都不会影响这一点：美国的反应与西方世界其他国家的反应相当一致。
如果他们错了（据说有 5,00-10,000 人死亡）：要么他们的预测一开始就是荒谬的，特朗普推迟摧毁经济的决定是正确的，要么他们是对的，但美国（以及特朗普的预测） ）反应非常出色，将死亡人数控制在远低于 2 万人。
乔
回复：@ferd、@epebble
本篇 https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-italy-videos-show-military-fleet-transporting-coffins-of-coronavirus-victims-out-of-overwhelmed-town is not a rumor. They are doing this because local crematoria are overloaded running 24 X 7.
鹅卵石-
我也看到了那篇文章，就像每篇文章一样，它完全无法解释发生了什么。
15 辆卡车（和 50 名士兵）出现在贝加莫（谷歌称人口为 122,000）以搬运尸体。
How many bodies? (5, 15, 30, 45, 150?) we don't know. (perhaps of those 15 trucks, 7 carried either soldiers or equipment-only 8 bodies were recovered, as one hypothetical).
Immediately, we learn that Italy as a whole lost 450, but don't know how many were from Bergamo-only that trucks showed up.
贝加莫是伦巴第的一个城市（谷歌说人口为10万-是意大利人口的1/5），文章称伦巴第是受灾最严重的城市，共有300人死亡。
那么贝加莫是否是该地区创伤 1 中心的所在地，是否收集了来自意大利 1/5 的受害者和尸体？ 或者那些尸体都是那个相对较小的城镇的居民？
Once again: we have a striking picture (trucks lined up on a road at night), but don't know what is really going on-in one of the most advanced regions on the planet.
乔
Trump will be re-elected with a mandate to punish China. Irony is business cycle was near its end anyways you could have had a September dip or a Dow explosion before mid terms. Instead coronavirus popped the bubble and Trump gets a reset.
Get ready to hear the Obama pig (No not Moochelle) starting in May. Gives Trump and an excellent comparison as this isn’t going to kill even half of the swine flu. You guys did your best but Trump’s luck is gonna prevail again. Obama dithered on swine flu and killed 12K that’s all trump needs. All you had to do was not pick Obama’s VP. Lmao.
回复：@Polynikes
12k that summer and fall of 2009. The same publication did a ten year retrospective and estimated a 75k death toll in total. https://www.statnews.com/2019/06/11/h1n1-swine-flu-10-years-later/
So if Trump is comparing himself to Obama, he’s got a little room for error.
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
No, every generation needs to own up to the role it played in forever cheating future White generations. NO exceptions.
It’s especially important because the cuckish traits that let it happens are alive and well. Forget coronavirus, we need to nuke the cuck curve!
Forgiveness is possible, but not until people ‘fess up.
回复：@RichardTaylor
If we assume that the virus will cull mostly those who are old and sick, then after this is over, the remaining population should be younger and more healthy and life expectancy will actually go up after a temporary blip and then settle back down after the time when those who died too soon would have died anyway. What the virus is mostly doing is moving up (by a relatively few years) the expiration date of people who were going to expire pretty soon anyway.
BUT if the person in question is you or a friend or a family member, the thought of having your meter run out early is not a pleasant one. Maybe you have a good 5 or 10 years of cruising or playing bridge at the retirement community left in you despite your age and conditions. Maybe longer - God only knows. Modern medicine is pretty good at prolonging life when it comes to known diseases. Yesterday I saw an ad for a local retirement community in which they featured a guy who was 102 and who had had a career writing advertising jingles - he wrote the "Good and Plenty" song. Now he formed a jazz band from among the other seniors and he writes songs for it. He seemed like he was enjoying his life as much as people who are a lot younger.
We are taught that every human life is sacred. If there are reasonable and temporary public health measures that will prevent millions or even thousands of our fellow citizens from being carried off early, we should take them. It's all a question of line drawing. Suppose I told you that if everyone stayed home for one day, 60 million lives could be saved? You'd do that, right? Now if I told you that if we shut down our entire economy, one old geezer would live another six weeks, you'd say no, not worth it. What we have is somewhere in between and we are going to have to feel our way into a reasonable cost/benefit balance. This is admittedly hard to do in a panic/ ghouls trying to seek political advantage out of tragedy situation.
回复：@乔纳森·梅森，@本·蒂尔曼
是的，我同意这一点。
“死亡率为0.019%。”
7/3711 = .00188
That would round to .19%. You are off by a factor of 10."
？
.00188 rounds to .0019. He's off by a factor of 10, all right, but you're off by a factor of 100.
Replies: @FPD72, @Rex Little, @ben tillman
And you’re off by a parenthesis. And a factor of 100. Be careful when you’re correcting someone.
Another negative aspect of this (imo) overreaction is that it’ll possibly kill untold numbers 5 or 10 years from now when the next, possibly more dangerous, health threat comes around and everyone will regard epidemiologists as Chicken Littles.
We’ll see… maybe I’m wrong and they will have saved us all. Or 1 of every 1000 of us at least.
估计冠状病毒在美国造成的死亡人数
作者：道格拉斯·卡尔 (DOUGLAS CARR)，意见贡献者 — 03 年 19 月 20 日 08:30 PM（美国东部时间）
有文章指出，估计传染病传播的两个关键参数是R_0和CFR（病死率）。有很好的预测模型，但 Covid-19 案例中的这些参数却鲜为人知。他根据较早开始的国家的例子，提出了一些粗略的计算。
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/488494-estimating-coronaviruss-us-toll
所有预测未来的模型都会随着时间的推移显示误差传播或增长，即模型本身或模型中的参数中的误差导致误差随着时间的推移而增长。
我的想法之一是，所有模型所基于的基本现象都经历指数增长，这意味着误差的传播将比增长远小于指数时的情况严重得多。
我一直在寻找有关这种病毒的人口统计数据，特别是最近的和非中国的数据。到目前为止我发现了这个：
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/7SIRXCEIENFW3JYGVU4MNGVY24.png&w=1440
有关此示例的许多注意事项，请参阅文章：
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/
现在获得良好的数据还为时过早（我所说的良好数据的意思之一是没有太多样本偏差的数据。
年龄分布图：
摘自该网站：
https://www.statista.com/chart/21134/age-distribution-coronavirus-italy-south-korea/
这是一个图表，显示了各个年龄段的分布情况，而我更感兴趣的是了解每个年龄段的患病率。当然，这可以通过将这些数据与人口中年龄组的分布相结合来计算，但这很繁琐。
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
Add “boomer” to white, male, Christian, straight, etc., as yet another Demographic You Are
允许的Encouraged to Blame for All the World’s Ills. I approach such birthdate-based analyses with the same attitude as with the others. It’s basically astrology.时间线TimecolumnJan. 1946 Big Brother Boomer born
JULY 1946 婴幼儿护理常识书 出版
Dec. 1953 First issue of 花花公子, with Marilyn
MAY 1954 布朗诉董事会 决定
1950 年代后期：
十一月1960 夏山 出版
Mar. 1961 Twenty-Third Amendment ratified
JUNE 1963 阿宾顿学区诉Schempp 决定
Jan. 1964 Big Brother could vote in Georgia and Kentucky
Nov. 1964 Landslide in favor of never questioning Social Security, Medicare, and the restratifiec
Dec. 1964 Baby Brother Boomer born
Jan. 1965 Big Brother could vote in Alaska
Jan. 1966 Big Brother could vote in Hawaii
Jan. 1967 Big Brother could finally vote in the other 46 states
Dec. 1982 Baby Brother could vote in every state
It's especially important because the cuckish traits that let it happens are alive and well. Forget coronavirus, we need to nuke the cuck curve!
Forgiveness is possible, but not until people 'fess up.
回复：@RegCæsar
Cheating future whites has been going on for 400 years. That’s a lot of owning up to do. Mostly by the dead.
回复：@RichardTaylor
True. All we can do is take down their statues and stop worshipping them.
Another thing that i dislike about the current “shelter-in-place” shutdown, is that , in addition to being overly-broad, it’s also moved the focus off of other possibly necessary (or useful) actions:
– we’ve covered masks at some length, but even in my heavily Asian immigrant /Asian-American area, maybe only 20% of cashiers , chefs, etc are wearing masks.
– ventilation (of buildings) : basically “more is better”. (both exhaust fans and recirculation type)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6072925/
So guidance for places still open prob. should be to turn fans to “on” and/or “higher than normal if not annoying”
— HEPA filters definitely help, but how about some ozone injection, is that helpful? Perhaps run them for a few hours overnight in stores or pump it into buses and trains at the end of every run? (yes i know it’s considered a pollutant, but that’s context dependent)
the wuhan style “mist the streets with disinfectant” was maybe a bit much, but afaict we’re doing close to nothing other than the halfh hearted but still highly damaging “stay home” …
— also another thing about masks: shortage. got it. where’s the discussion (and crash protocol development) for disinfecting and reusing the masks; esp respirator types?
Some area nurses are protesting on the streets today because they’re FINALLY been told to reuse stuff and they don’t want to.
If you’ve been to a doctor recently or had any procedures (or looked into it) you know how much of the equipment nowaday is disposable be being cleaned, disinfected and reused.
Generally, that’s reasonably cost and time effective, and there’s a lot of “out of an abundance of caution”.
Well, that’s fine when you have infinite resources … but less so when cut off from your suppliers on the other side of the Pacific. (<- who would have guessed 70 years ago in which direction those supplies would be following? )
这个 https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-italy-videos-show-military-fleet-transporting-coffins-of-coronavirus-victims-out-of-overwhelmed-town 不是谣言。 他们这样做是因为当地的火葬场超负荷运转 24 X 7。
回复：@joeyjoejoe
鹅卵石-
我也看到了那篇文章，就像每篇文章一样，它完全无法解释发生了什么。
15 辆卡车（和 50 名士兵）出现在贝加莫（谷歌称人口为 122,000）以搬运尸体。
几具尸体？ （5、15、30、45、150？）我们不知道。 （也许在这 15 辆卡车中，有 7 辆载有士兵或装备——只有 8 具尸体被找到，作为一个假设）。
我们立即得知意大利整体损失了 450 辆，但不知道有多少来自贝加莫——只有卡车出现了。
贝加莫是伦巴第的一个城市（谷歌说人口为10万-是意大利人口的1/5），文章称伦巴第是受灾最严重的城市，共有300人死亡。
那么贝加莫是否是该地区创伤 1 中心的所在地，是否收集了来自意大利 1/5 的受害者和尸体？ 或者那些尸体都是那个相对较小的城镇的居民？
再一次：我们有一张惊人的照片（晚上卡车在路上排成一排），但不知道在这个星球上最先进的地区之一到底发生了什么。
乔
Well think I heard the online Yale professor on epidemics in history say that flue viruses tend to be highly mutational. They come in phases of virulence The great flue pandemic of 1918 had an initial soft landing in the Spring, disappeared in the summer warmth and then, after everybody went back to work or the war, reappeared in the fall to kill more Americans than died in both world wars,
Is this relevant to Corona? Will it not be over when we think it is over? Even if this is just a panic, will we panic again?
"Excuse me a moment, there is someone with a walkie-talkie kicking my front door and my dog is barking. I will be right ba…"
Ah Ha! Another naive cell phone user.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W3ugTv877I
回复：@McKenna先生
Heh. “Israel is a Democracy” the man starts out.
You know right there trouble is close behind.
True. Just think what a die off of the 60+ crowd would do for the solvency of SS and Medicare!
OK, boomer. Time to go.
回复：@McKenna先生
Right! We stand to save many billions and it’ll only cost us many trillions.
回复：@ 128
What I remember off the top of my head is that traditionally in East Asia. the state does not spend welfare on old people because taking care of your elderly parents is supposed to be the job of their children and grandchildren, not the state, according to the Confucian social order, but that works well when the TFR was still around 5 or so, so you have a lot of children to share the labour of elderly care, rather than 1, and East Asians (particularly mainland Chinese) are considerably Westernized now, and so they tend to balk at taking care of their parents and grandparents like their ancestors used to, and also the 1 child policy has made the dependency ratio very lopsided, and the Communists have also done a lot to degrade traditional Confucian values as well in China.
In addition any sick old person can live the last years of their life free of charge in a nursing home under the auspices of Medicaid.
The catch, however, is that the person who moves into the nursing home under Medicaid must liquidate all their assets except for a small deductible and hand them over to the government, which would mean selling their homes, for example, and using up all retirement account funds.
In many cases the old person has younger members of the family living in their home, so if the home has to be liquidated, then the younger family members may lose the place where they live rent free. This provides a strong incentive to keep elderly persons at home with support from Medicare, not Medicaid, so that perhaps if they pass away the heirs will inherit their homes and assets, if there are any left.
I agree with you. The boomer hate is evil and disturbing. I've noticed a vicious hatred of older people has become a trademark of the dissident right. Over and over I see posts that shrug off the deaths of older people and even cheer it on.
The boomer blaming/bashing splits young whites from older whites, and it also lets the actual nation wreckers off the hook.
Some of the most vocal boomer bashers are TRS and The Daily Stormer, but there is plenty of boomer bashing here on Unz as well.
Boomer bashing is divisive and stupid. Boomers didn't vote for open borders......it was forced on us. Boomers did not vote for globalism.....it was forced on us.
Very sad and disturbing to hear people say, "The virus will kill the boomers and this is a blessing."
This kind of thinking is for psychos and small hats.
Replies: @TomSchmidt, @utu, @Sam Haysom, @ATBOTL, @RichardTaylor, @Reg Cæsar, @Anon
Boomer Fragility in action. Very rarely will you see any sense of culpability from Boomers. They instantly go into victim mode when called out.
回复：@Anonymous
Nobody knows how many Chinese are in the country due to illegal immigration. Anecdotes suggest that the illegal Chinese population is huge.
There’s a speed limit that optimizes the amount and quality of human life, and at this point in time the coronavirus response is well below that limit (ie too cautious). We need to get moving, even if some people have to die.
回复：@TomSchmidt
That’s a decent analogy.
What I remember off the top of my head is that traditionally in East Asia. the state does not spend welfare on old people because taking care of your elderly parents is supposed to be the job of their children and grandchildren, not the state, according to the Confucian social order, but that works well when the TFR was still around 5 or so, so you have a lot of children to share the labour of elderly care, rather than 1, and East Asians (particularly mainland Chinese) are considerably Westernized now, and so they tend to balk at taking care of their parents and grandparents like their ancestors used to, and also the 1 child policy has made the dependency ratio very lopsided, and the Communists have also done a lot to degrade traditional Confucian values as well in China.
回复：@Jonathan Mason
Here is the US we have Medicare, which is government subsidized medical care for everyone over the age of 65.
In addition any sick old person can live the last years of their life free of charge in a nursing home under the auspices of Medicaid.
The catch, however, is that the person who moves into the nursing home under Medicaid must liquidate all their assets except for a small deductible and hand them over to the government, which would mean selling their homes, for example, and using up all retirement account funds.
In many cases the old person has younger members of the family living in their home, so if the home has to be liquidated, then the younger family members may lose the place where they live rent free. This provides a strong incentive to keep elderly persons at home with support from Medicare, not Medicaid, so that perhaps if they pass away the heirs will inherit their homes and assets, if there are any left.
Nobody knows how many Chinese are in the country due to illegal immigration. Anecdotes suggest that the illegal Chinese population is huge.
回复：@JimB
Yes, but they accrete onto the legal population, providing exploitable cheap labor for legal Chinese who traffic them. I posted maps showing good correspondence between the distribution of Asian immigrants and coronavirus cases in the US, showing they are likely the main spreaders. We are reaping the whirlwind for our mass immigration and open borders policies engineered for the benefit of rich leftists.
However the critical thing is to look at what is taking people off - i.e., whether people are dying of it, or simply 它。
For example the first 'covid19' death in South Florida a day or so ago, was a 95 year old who died of bacterial pneumonia. He also had heart disease, diabetes and lung disease - all chronic.
So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus 本身: it had to do with a fragile elderly man whose system got one shock more than it could cope with. His unconditional age-sex cohort mortality rate is pretty high (in samples of people with his level of underlying chronic illness, it's over 75%[1]）。
So despite this chap's unfortunate demise, his contribution to the South Florida covid19 death toll was actually zero.
Similarly, a recent 'cluster' of 9 deaths included 7 deaths from stroke, cardiac arrest, and kidney failure, in patients whose underlying conditions included recent histories of stroke, heart attack and kidney disease.
So that's 8 deaths out of 9 - in an overall US dead'uns sample of a hundred or so - which have been attributed to, but are absolutely not caused by or the direct result of, this weak-ass pathogen.
And for this, the political class - globally - is prepared to stop the heart of the economic system, as if it can be turned back on like a light switch.
Do some estimates of the economic loss that will be caused by the 过剩 deaths of the victims: it's literally fuck-all.
让我们说 减-histrionic 小鸡 are correct, and the overall effect is to drop ~0.5% of the 健康 50+ population, Pareto-style - i.e., 20% of the population gets it; 20% of of that gets it bad; 20% of those die.
[因b4: 20% cubed is 0.8%, you monster]
Getting it down to 0.005 from 0.008 is just a back-of-the-envelope approach to excluding chronic health problems - we're only concerned with 健康 50+ people, who are the most productive and whose death contributes disproportionately to system-wide productivity losses. On nett, the chronically-ill are a net drag on output (they divert resources from productive use to 'keep this person alive just because' use).
Anyhow.. 0.5% is almost certainly an order of magnitude too high.
It still results in a big number in person terms (0.005 × 0.34 × 330m = 561,000), but it's fuck-all in terms of output since labour force participation of the 50+ cohort is low (it follows a kind-of Weibull distribution).
It seems like a cold-hearted calculus, but the 'correct' amount to spend on mitigation ought to be the economic loss multiplied by two things:
• a penalty (< 1) to account for the probability that the mitigation works;
• a factor (> 1) to account for the form of Jensen's Inequality used in economics to account for risk-aversion in utility functionals - 见., E(u(μ)) > u(E(μ))
Think of it as the insurance premium required to reduce the death risk of 0.4% of the workforce back to its virus-free level, using a mechanism that is not guaranteed to work.
As with Y2K, terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrism - and all politically-promulgated public hysterias going all the way back to witches - the actual cost imposed for proposed mitigation is at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the actuarially-fair amount.
All based on selective, biased data that is guaranteed to overestimate the costs of doing nothing, and overestimate the benefits (and underestimate the costs) of the proposed policy.
In almost 30 years of analysing policy, that last paragraph has never ever been shown to be a bad premise.
.
[1] Lee et al., "Chronic Conditions and Mortality Among the Oldest Old" 美国公共卫生. 2008 July; 98(7): 1209–1214
回复：@Kratoklastes，@HA
“So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus per se…”
That’s not true. Similar questions arise in AIDS, which might not kill you directly, but weakens your immunity so that something else can kill you. Coronavirus also causes cytokine storms:
So yeah, the bacterial pneumonia might have done him in, but that doesn’t mean coronavirus wasn’t a co-conspirator, so to speak, and it’s not deceptive to include him in the count. Presumably, at some point they may break out coronavirus-related deaths from coronavirus deaths. (The usual turn of phrase in AIDS is “died of AIDS-related causes”.)
Moreover, if all the respirators (and hospital beds and nurses and doctors) are being used up and are unavailable, as is happening in Italy, patients will die for all sorts of reasons that are nominally unrelated to coronavirus, but it still played a role.
Admittedly, there’s always some arbitrariness as to how you attribute death, especially if other morbidities are present (and there will be plenty of deaths directly or indirectly related to the anti-coronavirus measures now in place) but at some point, this becomes a lot like playing holocaust counting games and saying the inmates in the poorly-run poorly-maintained camp who died of typhus or malnutrition aren’t Nazi victims at all. I mean, come on.
A 95 year old man whose hand is a JQK straight in high-morbidity existing medical conditions, will have his switch tripped by a half-decent draught.
（（that guy makes it through each month) might be (roughly) 95%, but Pr(that guy makes it through the year) is less than 25%.
More to the point: anyone who advocates for counting covid19's 任何-cause RBIs, has to do the same for seasonal 'flu... which makes covid19's numbers look even more like a nothingburger.
The thing people don't get right, is ensuring apples-to-apples comparisons.
Hence we have been inundated with innumerate fucktards braying about confirmed-case numbers "growing exponentially", when the thing that's driving most of the 'growth' is the increase in the number of people tested... the proportion testing positive 大约是10％。
回复：@HA
"So the very first covid19 death in South Florida had not much to do with coronavirus per se..."
That's not true. Similar questions arise in AIDS, which might not kill you directly, but weakens your immunity so that something else can kill you. Coronavirus also causes cytokine storms:
So yeah, the bacterial pneumonia might have done him in, but that doesn't mean coronavirus wasn't a co-conspirator, so to speak, and it's not deceptive to include him in the count. Presumably, at some point they may break out coronavirus-related deaths from coronavirus deaths. (The usual turn of phrase in AIDS is "died of AIDS-related causes".)Moreover, if all the respirators (and hospital beds and nurses and doctors) are being used up and are unavailable, as is happening in Italy, patients will die for all sorts of reasons that are nominally unrelated to coronavirus, but it still played a role.
Admittedly, there's always some arbitrariness as to how you attribute death, especially if other morbidities are present (and there will be plenty of deaths directly or indirectly related to the anti-coronavirus measures now in place) but at some point, this becomes a lot like playing holocaust counting games and saying the inmates in the poorly-run poorly-maintained camp who died of typhus or malnutrition aren't Nazi victims at all. I mean, come on.
回复：@Kratoklastes
A 95 year old man whose hand is a JQK straight in high-morbidity existing medical conditions, will have his switch tripped by a half-decent draught.
（（that guy makes it through each month) might be (roughly) 95%, but Pr(that guy makes it through the year) is less than 25%.
More to the point: anyone who advocates for counting covid19’s 任何-cause RBIs, has to do the same for seasonal ‘flu… which makes covid19’s numbers look even more like a nothingburger.
The thing people don’t get right, is ensuring apples-to-apples comparisons.
Hence we have been inundated with innumerate fucktards braying about confirmed-case numbers “growing exponentially”, when the thing that’s driving most of the ‘growth’ is the increase in the number of people tested… the proportion testing positive 大约是10％。
"Pr(that guy makes it through each month) might be (roughly) 95%, but Pr(that guy makes it through the year) is less than 25%."
This is basically a variation of the "boomers were at death's door anyway" which is a separate issue. If I'm shot to death in a cancer ward, the cause of death is still hot lead, regardless of how much time I had left.
Basically, this shifting of goalposts is your tacit admission that Florida man did indeed partly die from coronavirus.
"More to the point: anyone who advocates for counting covid19’s any-cause RBIs, has to do the same for seasonal ‘flu…"
Are you confident that not what they do in accounting for flu deaths? Aren't many or most of those deaths likewise coinciding with other morbidities and doesn't it, too, strike down primarily the elderly?
How about adjusting the other way to get that apples-apples comparison, as in, how much worse would the flu season be if no one at all were vaccinated against it and every single individual were naive to it? I suspect those would be some serious numbers. Yeah, you can brush all those projected dead off like they did in the good old days when infant mortality was 50% and a quarter of women died in childburth -- or whatever other golden age you hanker for -- but as I understand, those people were pretty stiff-uper-lip when it came to economic downturns as well as plagues and diseases. As bad as it's going to get, I suspect the people enduring the London Blitz or the firebombing of Dresden might similarly laugh at the wusses who are now wetting their breeches about their stock holdings. Same goes for all the people who lost jobs back when they had to shut down cinemas and pools during all those polio/smallpox scares going back decades.
"… the proportion testing positive is about 10%."
Again, what is the number of false positives in the case of flu? Similar? Or do you not even know and are just throwing stuff at the wall at this point hoping something sticks? A standard Bayesian statistics quiz questi0n is based on the fact that most diagnoses of AIDS result from false positives. That doesn't mean AIDS is a total nothingburger.
I suspect they'll do a more careful count at some point when the dust settles, but don't be so sure that it'll be in your favor. Russia is seeing a jump in "pneumonia" cases that some locals are claiming are actually coronavirus cases. recent swine flu epidemic is now regarded as being ten times worse precisely because many of its deaths were tallied as regular flu.
UK, It is a panic over a hoax. A hoax being used on purpose, for nefarious reasons by our corporate and governmental (but I repeat myself) rulers. This is a scam, a huge theft, an embezzlement, the biggest sting in the world, use any metaphor you like. What it is NOT is an uncommon lot of people dying from a virus that is going around.
I would not do better if I were in charge, because I would never be associated with a global scam like this. I am a working class stiff and am reasonably honest, not given to theft or envy. The reaction to this small time virus has been to purposefully lie, prevaricate, obfuscate, and frighten, not to protect public health. The people that are participating in this scam better hope and pray that people like me stay small in number, or their days may be small in number. It is only a hoax, but it is damnably effective, thus far.
回覆：@UK
It isn’t a hoax. I know plenty of people who talk to Britain’s leading experts in this field. None of those experts think it is a hoax. They simply don’t have enough data and are going with the general feeling.
On the other hand, you know very little about organising anything and so you think this would be something that could be organised as a hoax.
This is why people like you will never take power. By definition you know nothing about anything relevant. It ia a sort of tragedy – if you were the hero that is, rather than just a clueless bystander advertising his ignorance.
How do you think this could ever be pulled off as a hoax?
Maybe we could/should look into some modern day iron lungs. They're not good if your doing surgery, but probably a heck of a lot more comfortable than having a plastic tube down your throat inflating you like a balloon if all you need is breathing support.
(note: i haven't researched if this is feasible for covid-19 sufferers, but seems like it would be)
回复：@James Forrestal
NOPE。 Iron lungs worked for polio because the issue is one of 肌肉无力 — the lungs themselves are fine.
But you can’t adequately oxygenate someone with significant 急性呼吸窘迫综合征 止 任何 cause with negative pressure. You need positive end-expiratory pressure, which requires intubation to get a proper seal. Or, in less serious cases, 行动计划 是一个 选项.
参见.
Hmm. thanks for the pointers. I was not aware of using external PEEP to keep the lungs more inflated between breaths.
Why can’t this be achieved with negative ventilation though? Just keep the pressure on the IL a few mm below ambient even on the exhale, no?
Earlier i found this paper
https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/23/3/419
^ a small (n=40) RCT comparing iron lung to intubation in “acute on chronic” episodes in COPD sufferers. Iron lungs had lower pneumonia and considerably shorter ventilation days.
Adding this PEEP concept also led to this:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3681349/
Six patients ARDS in crossover study (2 hours each) in a tank negative pressure ventilator vs positive pressure.
If i understand it correctly they report possibly better aveolar recruitment with the negative pressure system.
Anyway, bipap with those helmet systems seems like a fairly tolerable non-invasive system.
A 95 year old man whose hand is a JQK straight in high-morbidity existing medical conditions, will have his switch tripped by a half-decent draught.
（（that guy makes it through each month) might be (roughly) 95%, but Pr(that guy makes it through the year) is less than 25%.
More to the point: anyone who advocates for counting covid19's 任何-cause RBIs, has to do the same for seasonal 'flu... which makes covid19's numbers look even more like a nothingburger.
The thing people don't get right, is ensuring apples-to-apples comparisons.
Hence we have been inundated with innumerate fucktards braying about confirmed-case numbers "growing exponentially", when the thing that's driving most of the 'growth' is the increase in the number of people tested... the proportion testing positive 大约是10％。
回复：@HA
“Pr(that guy makes it through each month) might be (roughly) 95%, but Pr(that guy makes it through the year) is less than 25%.”
This is basically a variation of the “boomers were at death’s door anyway” which is a separate issue. If I’m shot to death in a cancer ward, the cause of death is still hot lead, regardless of how much time I had left.
Basically, this shifting of goalposts is your tacit admission that Florida man did indeed partly die from coronavirus.
“More to the point: anyone who advocates for counting covid19’s any-cause RBIs, has to do the same for seasonal ‘flu…”
Are you confident that not what they do in accounting for flu deaths? Aren’t many or most of those deaths likewise coinciding with other morbidities and doesn’t it, too, strike down primarily the elderly?
How about adjusting the other way to get that apples-apples comparison, as in, how much worse would the flu season be if no one at all were vaccinated against it and every single individual were naive to it? I suspect those would be some serious numbers. Yeah, you can brush all those projected dead off like they did in the good old days when infant mortality was 50% and a quarter of women died in childburth — or whatever other golden age you hanker for — but as I understand, those people were pretty stiff-uper-lip when it came to economic downturns as well as plagues and diseases. As bad as it’s going to get, I suspect the people enduring the London Blitz or the firebombing of Dresden might similarly laugh at the wusses who are now wetting their breeches about their stock holdings. Same goes for all the people who lost jobs back when they had to shut down cinemas and pools during all those polio/smallpox scares going back decades.
“… the proportion testing positive is about 10%.”
Again, what is the number of false positives in the case of flu? Similar? Or do you not even know and are just throwing stuff at the wall at this point hoping something sticks? A standard Bayesian statistics quiz questi0n is based on the fact that most diagnoses of AIDS result from false positives. That doesn’t mean AIDS is a total nothingburger.
I suspect they’ll do a more careful count at some point when the dust settles, but don’t be so sure that it’ll be in your favor. Russia is seeing a jump in “pneumonia” cases that some locals are claiming are actually coronavirus cases. recent swine flu epidemic is now regarded as being ten times worse precisely because many of its deaths were tallied as regular flu.
Replies: @sorengard
Thanks. Holed up in NYC waiting for the plague to take us all down. Needed a good laugh.
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1240477390876184576
回复：@MEH 0910
https://twitter.com/amy_harmon/status/1240302602606215169
回复：@Sean、@MEH 0910