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提醒布什不要接受与切尼一起去猎鸽子的邀请: 史蒂夫克莱蒙斯 声称布什总统现在更多地听取像国防部长罗伯特·盖茨这样的理智人士关于不与美国开战的意见。 伊朗,而迪克·切尼办公室里那些疯狂的人对此并不满意:

切尼团队的想法是勾结 以色列,轻推 以色列 在双方持续对峙的某个关键时刻 伊朗的核活动和国际对此的失望,以使用巡航导弹(即,不是弹道导弹)对纳坦兹发动小规模常规打击。

这一战略将避免对轰炸机和其他飞机的飞越权的争议。 中东 并有望引发伊朗对海湾地区美军的充分反击——这 只是变得更大了 ——以迫使布什放弃政府现实主义者所倡导的外交轨道,并参与另一场战争。

这位切尼官员一直在讨论复杂的游戏计划的许多其他组成部分 华盛顿. 这位官员在 AEI 的高级职员以及午餐和晚餐聚会上提供了这条评论,这些评论被严格视为不公开,但毫无疑问,这位官员实际上希望鹰派保守派和新保守派分享这些信息,然后集结到这个观点。 这位官员正在做着 Joshua Muravchik 所做的事情 以前建议 ——这是为了帮助建立轰炸的政策和政治途径 伊朗.

这条信息最令人兴奋的是,这位切尼助手承认,切尼本人对布什总统感到沮丧,并与理查德·珀尔一样认为,布什与康多莉扎·赖斯、鲍勃·盖茨、迈克尔海登和麦康奈尔雕刻过。

这位官员说,切尼认为,在处理问题时,不能指望布什做出“正确的决定”。 伊朗 因此切尼认为他必须束缚总统的手。

周二晚上,我与布什政府的一位前国家情报官员进行了交谈,他告诉我,我正在调查并计划报告关于切尼及其助手的评论是对总统的“潜在刑事不服从”。

其他总统没有赋予他们的副总统像切尼那样的权力的标准原因是,当他们做这样的事情时,你不能解雇副总统。

(从重新发布 史蒂夫 经作者或代表的许可)
 
•标签: 灌木, 伊朗 
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  1. Steve, what would you do about the Iranian nuclear problem? What options, other than an attack, do we have?

    Surely you don’t think that this problem can be negotiated away.

    The Iranian government is an oppressive third world theorcray, known for its sponsorship of terrorism, headed by a whack job who has made all sorts of apocylptic statements in his public speeches. It would be a very bad idea to allow a country like that to obtain the bomb.

    It’s bad enough living in a world where Pakistan and North Korea have nukes. We don’t want yet another unstable dictatorship, one charismatic colonel away from a coup, to have nuclear weapons. If countries like this keep going nucelar, eventually a weapon will find its way into the hands of terrorists and will be detonated here.

    Even a military strike isn’t guarnateed to put an end to the Iranian nuke program, but it’s the best option we have.

    You might think it’s messy, and uncertain, and you’d be right about that. But we live in a very dangerous world, and as a result we need to make some ugly choices. Your personal opinions on subjects such as Dick Cheney’s strategic acumen, Iraq, and the Neocons is irrelvant.

    This choice is very simple. Do you want to try to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb, or do you want to sit around and do nothing while go nuclear?

  2. 史蒂夫,
    As usual great comments!

  3. 我赞同匿名的评论。史蒂夫似乎不提倡任何怨恨——对新保守主义模糊概念的怨恨。迪克·切尼如何被称为“新”保守派让我感到困惑。如果可以阻止的话,反对史蒂夫允许伊朗拥有核武器显然是疯狂的。所有选项都应该摆在桌面上,当然包括军事行动。伊朗存在邪恶,允许其权力和影响力增长对于美国或西方来说并不是一个负责任的立场。

  4. savvygoper and anonymous – ever read the story about the boy who cried wolf?

    The Bush administration’s lies before Congress, the U.N., and the American people have consequences. The warmongerers got their war, but they lost the trust of the American people. The bar is going to be set a lot higher next time.

    I worry a lot more about my state being overrun by poor non-english speakers than I do about some theoretical Iranian nuclear threat.

  5. I high-ranking Israeli official the other week said that Iran was not nearly as close to getting the bomb as is being reported. Given that Israel has stated unequivocally that it will not allow it to happen, and that they presumably have much better intelligence in this matter than we do, I think we should take him at his word.

  6. It’s worth noting that Iran would happily accept quitting its nuclear program if the U.S. would simply be reasonable. This offer has been on the table for a long time. But, Jews like the first “anonymous” poster on this thread won’t tolerate Israel being forced to accept the peace treaties offered to it by the rest of the Middle East.

    The same was true of Saddam, who made several offers of full peace and WMD disarmament. I’d bet that 99.9% of posters on this thread are not even aware of the existance of those offers.

  7. It seems that Steve is advocating nothing expect resentment- resentment against a nebulous concept of neoconservatives.

    Quite the opposite. Steve is advocating against the nebulous POLICY of neoconservatives, which amounts to little more than resentment of anyone who opposes Israeli domination.

  8. 与伊朗开战的 NPV 是多少? 如果像伊拉克那样处理,则不利。

    如果政府愿意夺取主要油田,武力驱逐该地区的任何伊朗人,并守卫周边,以便私营石油公司安全开采石油,那么这场战争将具有积极的价值。 华盛顿有能力做到这一点的机会有多大?

    与伊朗开战并不难。 他们正在使伊朗的情况变得更糟。 然而,占领伊朗的代价将超过其价值。 那个地方的人是野蛮人。 想象一下,在公元 1000 年将自由主义强加于欧洲会有多困难。 中东的自由理性状态堪比公元1000年的欧洲。 我们不能用武力改变他们,但我们肯定可以踢他们的屁股并夺取他们的土地。 与该地区国家的任何战争都应以后者为基础​​。

  9. But we live in a very dangerous world, and as a result we need to make some ugly choices. Your personal opinions on subjects such as Dick Cheney’s strategic acumen, Iraq, and the Neocons is irrelvant.

    …do you want to try to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb, or do you want to sit around and do nothing while go nuclear?

    It really helps to 1) take a look outside and 2) digest history (instead of just reading it).

    Nuclear creep is an unstoppable force. Obviously. You might as well try to keep Spencer rifles out of the hands of the Apaches.

    What we should be doing is bolstering our nuclear defenses. That means sealing the borders, developing accurate missile-defense systems, and reversing Muslim immigration from all Western nations.

    And then we need to prepare for nuclear conflict. That is the pragmatic, adult thing to do. Because that is what the future holds. The top priority should be to win that conflict decisively. Trying to prevent the conflict from occurring at all is just more utopian nonsense.

    And as far as the Middle East specifically, what an insanely tangled web we have weaved there. The chickens are coming home to roost. We have allowed Israel to flout all international nuclear controls for decades. We are rightly viewed as arch hypocrites on this issue. Total lack of credibility has been achieved. And there are consequences for that. We have motivated the Arabs to acquire nukes at all costs.

    So, your plan is preemptive war on any Middle Eastern country that aspires to a nuke arsenal of their own. But that will work out about as well as the War in Iraq.

    You might at least get priorities straight. Iran is years away from deployable nukes. Israel and Europe should dedicate themselves to nuke-defense in the meantime.

    But radical Islam is very close to forcibly acquiring a mature nuke arsenal in Pakistan. Why are you not freaking out about the unrest in Pakistan?

    The way things are going radical Islam will likely control France’s world class nuclear arsenal in 20 years. Where is your plan to head off that looming disaster?

    We can either devote huge sums to protecting the homeland or huge sums to preemptive wars across the planet. We cannot do both. Your plan will leave this nation in financial ruin and ultimately much less unable to defend itself here at home.

  10. If we want to prosper in the long term we must get back to being an American Republic and not an empire. All empires crash hard. That is the future for us unless we act in the national interest instead of the international interest.

    Once this empire falls the internationalists will simply take flight to the next host and we will be left holding the bag (a bag full of wretched third world tribal balkanization).

    We are instructed by the Founders to avoid foreign entanglements. But “we” have ignored that wisdom and are now reaping the bitter harvest.

  11. Iran is not another North Korea. It is far more modern than it looks on the surface.

    It is a really bad idea to play in someone else’s sandbox. Iraq is someone else’s sandbox, and Iran is someone else’s sandbox.

    If our leaders were sane, they would find a way to negotiate an under the table agreement with Turkey and Iran to quietly take over the mess in Iraq. They would probably go for it, even if they pretended not to. So much the better for us saving face.

    Second best, put it under some kind of UN control. All we’re doing in Iraq is teaching Arabs how to kill Americans.

    If Cheney & Co really believe they can somehow “manage” a small missile exchange better think twice before they pry open Pandora’s Box. They should think back to all those Beltway “experts” who were so convinced that once US troops landed on Iraqi soil and toppled the Saddam statues, the Iraqis would certainly line up in an orderly fashion to join hands and sing Kumbaya in a modern Western democracy.

  12. Agree 100% with anon. The idea of fighting wars for other people – or, worse, abstract principles like “participatory democracy” (that’s just a statue, guys) – is idiotic. Want to win a war in the Middle East? Settle there. Settle lots of people there. Bring in some Russian street thugs like the Israelis did. Then you just might have some kind of lasting effect in the region.

    Do you know why people complain about “colonialism” to this day? Because it worked. It puts bugs in people’s butts that takes centuries to dig out (unsuccessfully). That’s how you spread the flame of democracy, if you spread it at all.

    If you want to pour water into sand, spend money on “correcting” the “unfortunately backwards” customs ingrained in the locals by thousands of years of their own traditions.

  13. 我希望伊朗拥有核武器吗?不,我希望伊拉克由萨达姆统治吗?不,我想要一个共产主义越南吗?不。

    但仅仅说你想要这些东西是不够的。您必须决定是否可以以您能承受的价格获得它们。想必,如果有良好的领导,我们本可以在越南和伊拉克做得更好。但我们没有。也许这表明我们不应该期望在与伊朗打交道时拥有无限的能力。

    我不知道与伊朗的战争会是什么样子。我确信美国政府中有人确实知道这一点,但我没有看到任何东西让我相信布什和他的亲信会听取他们中的任何人的意见,至少在他们确立意识形态立场后不会。

    因此,也许我们可以以合理的成本对伊朗的核武器计划做点什么——当然,没有伊朗核,世界会变得更好。但我为什么要期待这种情况发生呢?鉴于布什政府在上一场战争中表现得多么糟糕,为什么我应该相信他们对这场战争可能结果的评估呢?

  14. Whether Saddam had offered to deal was irrelevant. He was a totally unreliable negotiator (in retrospect he probably believed that Iraq had a far more advanced weapons program than it actually did).

    Iran however is a different story, because the government is not an extension of one man and his tortured cronies. Going in on a unilateral military mission is indefensible and would only further isolate the United States instead of Iran. Iran getting the bomb is probably inevitable and we should move forward with making nice. Hell, we lived with Stalin and Mao having the bomb.

    Maybe Cheney’s heart medication is making him paranoid. Prior to Dubya’s administration I had always figured him as a sane, steady hand–just the kind of boring white guy you want minding the flaky, vainglorious politicians. Alas!

  15. perhaps i’m in the minority, but i hope iran gets a few low yield nuclear weapons and puts them on ballistic missiles. anything that keeps the united states out of the middle east is good in my opinion. the current US administration just wants to invade iran and kill thousands of people before they’re not able to do that without getting hit back.

    gw bush talks a tough game but he’s full of it. lots of rhetoric about “wepunz of mass destrukshun” and then instead of invading north korea, a nation with real and functioning fission devices, he decides to invade iraq, a country that turns out to have nothing.

    this is exactly what his father decided not to do. we can see who the better president was.

  16. It’s possible to agree with each of these statements…

    1) The invasion of Iraq has been a colossal fuck-up.

    2) Neocons/The Israel Lobby/Dick Cheney want us to bomb Iran.

    3) It would help Israel if we bombed Iran, since Iran has threatened to destroy them.

    4) George Bush was wrong about WMD in Iraq.

    … And still understand that it is in 我们的 interest to keep Iran from getting nukes. This would be the first time a theocracy with long-time terrorist connections (Hezbollah), and leaders whose religion makes look forward to the apocalypse got nukes. Bad fucking news, and well worth the bad PR of a massive bombing campaign to stop, or at least buy us a few more years.

    Spite for Bush/Cheney/Neocons/Israel is a really stupid reason not to do what is in America’s interest, which is to keep Iran from getting nukes. Remember, this is a country that has repeatedly shown they cannot be deterred by threats of retaliation by us. After all, did we retaliate when Iran:

    – Invaded our embassy and took Americans hostage for over a year?

    – Killed hundreds of U.S. Marines with a truck bomb in Lebanon, via their Hezbollah proxies?

    – Bombed U.S. Air Force troops in Saudi Arabia, again via Hezbollah?

    The answer, of course is “no”. Iran is led by nutters, and we’ve already demonstrated to them that they can commit acts of war against us and kill Americans without any fear of retribution. Rolling over and letting them get nukes would be a mistake so costly as to make the Iraq invasion seem like a brilliant policy move.

    Remember: Clinton’s 4-day bombing campaign against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (Desert Fox) effectively ended his WMD program. Don’t sell our air power short. We are better and blowing shit up than the Iranians are at defending it. And considering that they don’t have the capital to build gas refineries in their country, or effectively exploit their oil wealth, they would be hard-pressed to re-build what we destroy. And if they did, we could always bomb it again.

  17. 匿名 • 免责声明 说:

    Udolpho — like many smart, middle class people you are IMHO fairly dense when it comes to violence. And violent people who are not nice, middle class westerners.

    The entire premise of the lunatic parent article is ridiculous. Israel’s current political leadership is paralyzed and inept. Dick Cheney’s mind-control rays aren’t going to work. Responding to dangerous provocations that could not go unanswered, Olmert conducted a weak and half-hearted war against Hezbollah that handed victory to them (and Iran) and exposed dangerous weakness and decay in the small and now not very competent Israeli Military as the Winograd Report makes clear.

    Israel should have already struck first against Iran, which has made clear just two days ago it’s intention to wipe Israel off the map (again). Sharon or even Barak would have done so (Barak after making some “deal” any deal with Abbas to cover the West Bank/Gaza). Olmert who has no military experience and approaches life as though everyone is a nice, middle class person, has dithered like France in November 1939.

    Israel will get nuked, and disappear. Disastrous for Israelis, and bad for us. Because it would only encourage those who believe in “a World without America and Israel” if one part inevitably comes true. Of course Iran would be hit in retaliation, but so what?

    The idea that Darth Cheney will make Israel hit Iran is laughable and speaks more to the intellectual weakness of those pushing this than anything else. The Iranians are hardly likely to be fooled.

    Neither Steve nor Udolpho can understand the threat, outlined in Robb’s “Brave New War.” It is not primarily the state actors like Japan or Germany. No aircraft carriers or ICBMs. Rather trans-national terror/criminal groups who seek to build nothing but destroy the nation state so they can flourish. Think the Taliban in Afghanistan, narco-groups in Rio, Hamas in Gaza, and so on. These are distributed groups that use post-modern Western Weakness (the emotionalism provoked by news media on the side of the enemy to fight politically correct wars and avoid killing) to destroy order and the nation-state.

    They are dangerous when matched with dangerous nation-states that use them as deniable proxies for making war. Like Iran and Hezbollah.

    Like it or not, Iran has been at war with the US continuously since 1979 and we have pretended we are not. At each turn: the 79 Hostage takeover, the 83 Beirut Barracks bombing, the 94 Buenos Aires bombing, the 96 Khobar Towers bombing, the US has not reacted at all or has sought to appease the Iranians, only inviting more aggression. This is bipartisan policy carried out by Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton, and Bush 2. More recently the Iranians have used the IRGC to directly kill and kidnap our troops, raid our British allies and take them hostage, openly boast of 93 US Continental sites they will destroy, and boasts that they will create “a world without America” and so on. Bush has done … nothing.

    Because like every other President since Carter he wants to defer action. Taking on the Iran problem will cost a lot of blood and money. And it will make things ugly.

    However: Ayatollah Khomeni on the plane ride from Paris told astonished reporters he cared not a fig for Iran or the Iranian people, only the Islamic Revolution which he viewed had to conquer the world. Iran’s Mullahs have consistently followed this vision and sought confrontation against a “weak” America and Israel even when their interests against Saddam coincided. Unlike NK we have no nuclear samples from their nuke programs so can’t match fallout from nuclear weapons. NK also has in theory a Chinese leash. Iran has none.

    Iran is also very close to weapons, according to the IAEA, and has a market supposedly more robust than AQ Khans. They have the means to hit us through deniable Hezbollah proxies (no need for missiles) and have nearly 30 years of bipartisan Democrat and Republican appeasement to believe nuking two-three US major cities would cause US collapse and possibly even surrender to Islam. Chillingly, Ahmadinejad issued the traditional call to Islam to avoid attack in his letter to Bush.

    Udolpho and Steve, the men who run things in Tehran, the Mullahs, do not think nor act like you. They’ve personally overseen the liquidation aka murders of reformers, union organizers, women’s rights activists, and so on. Their entire lives have been filled with personal violence as a means to power and wealth. They have no experiences to believe that attacking the US with deniable nuclear weapons won’t result in our retreat from the Gulf.

    And the announced nuclear programs of the following nations: Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Jordan all shout loudly that local governments believe US protection useless and that Iranians will be allowed to attack with impunity and the US Navy forced to withdraw.

    I agree with Anon 5:12 that Nuke proliferation cannot be stopped. The tech is old, and there are too many sellers. HOWEVER, there are no bright lines drawn, because our deeply feminized, suburban, feminist political class has no clue about violence and it’s prevalence.

    Have we demonstrated clearly to Iran’s leaders that a nuclear attack on the US would be followed by erasing Iran? No. Indeed Obama’s comment about it was he would only make sure first responders had enough support. Only Hillary said she’d retaliate. And Iran feels confident there would be enough doubt to keep us from retaliating.

    Will we pre-emptively strike if we feel threatened by Iran’s nukes, open alliances with Al Qaeda (Saad bin Laden lives there, openly organizing), and control of Hezbollah? What’s the red line the Iranians dare not cross? What bipartisan agreement is there?

    If anything Steve and Udolpho are as naive as Olmert, recoiling away from violence now in guarantee there will be only worse later on.

    Israel will be nuked, regrettable and a huge loss for Western Civilization (and proof to Jihad that the West can indeed be destroyed). Israel will of course retaliate but they’ll all be dead. And Hezbollah will carry out nuclear attacks on cities like NYC and Chicago leaving 3-10 million dead and the US economy in ruins.

    From there it is an open question as to what will proceed.

    The problem is not “war-mongering” GWB but the failure to make credible threats to deter aggressive non-state actors allied with Iran (or Pakistan, nearly everything said about Iran applies to Pakistan).

    No one internationally believes the US will do anything other than impotent lobbing of cruise missiles ala Clinton after a nuclear attack. THAT rather than the Iraq War is the big danger. Unless you think the Mullahs are like the spineless EUnuchs of the EU.

  18. It’s amazing how many words Jews can expend when rationalizing militant support for Israel. It seems that the centuries of doing nothing but debating the nuances of the Talmud have selected for this sort of behavior.

    Iran’s war with the U.S. does not date to 1979. It dates to 1953, when we overthrew their parliament and replaced it with a terrorist dictatorship. But by the 1990s, Iran was ready to let bygones be bygones, because Iranians are rational thinkers. Unfortunately, the irrational Zionists overruled the oil lobby and canceled the peace process, which had progressed very well.

  19. Whether Saddam had offered to deal was irrelevant. He was a totally unreliable negotiator

    Ah, yes, THEY are all dishonest liars, whereas WE are honest to a fault. It is a wonder that the U.S. has survived so many years despite our scrupulous adherence to treaties and international law in the face of such an implacably mendacious world.

  20. One thing I cannot understand is why we don’t move more of the current guerrilla war being fought by Iran against us in Iraq onto Iranian soil. Why aren’t a whole lot more Iranian soldiers being blown up with IEDs? Why aren’t top Iranian officials being targeted for assassinations? If Iran wants to stir up trouble and kill our people, then it would seem wise to ensure the current chaos spills over onto their side of the border and let them know that two can play this game. This could provide us a golden opportunity to try to co-opt some of the more moderate Sunni/Baathist elements in Iraq that must undoubtedly be aware of the game Iran is playing in their backyard. They might wish they had a way to extend their war with the Shiites beyond only targeting Iran’s proxies in Iraq. We could provide them with such an increased striking capacity.

  21. Ah, yes, THEY are all dishonest liars, whereas WE are honest to a fault.

    And another Internet debate won by saying something stupid. Congratulations! We are all so proud of you.

  22. The point is moot, there’s no public support for extending war to Iran. Who is going to send in American troops with no credible long-term commitment to backing them up and making the sacrifice worthwhile. We already face that in Iraq.

  23. “令人惊讶的是,犹太人在为以色列的激进支持寻找理由时能说出这么多话。”

    所以我们应该让伊朗拥有核武器。这将把它粘在犹太人身上。无法想象这笔交易会给我们带来什么负面影响……

  24. “The point is moot, there’s no public support for extending war to Iran. Who is going to send in American troops with no credible long-term commitment to backing them up and making the sacrifice worthwhile. We already face that in Iraq.”

    Troops? No one is talking about invading Iran, just bombing it. Night and day from fighting a counterinsurgency. The last thing Cheney and Bush want to do is get into another ground war; anyone who claims they do is full of shit.

  25. 如果我们不打算保护我们的边界并从根本上消除穆斯林移民进入美国,我们就不应该以任何方式、形式或形式攻击伊朗。

    否则,我们就会陷入更多的国内恐怖主义。

    我们还需要在此类轰炸发生之前将我们的部队撤出伊拉克,因为他们将成为“反击”的目标。

    如果我们愿意采取这两个步骤,我可以支持轰炸伊朗。

    然而,你我都知道我们不会这样做,所以此时轰炸伊朗在战略上是愚蠢的。

  26. The Iranians attempted a cautious rapprochement with the West a few years ago when the Guardian Council permitted the election of a mildly reformist government under Seyyed Mohammad Khatami. It’s now well established that approaches were made to the US via the Swiss in 2003, which were not so much rebuffed as ignored. In return for an abandonment of the policy of “regime change” and the normalisation of trade relations, the Iranians had offered a “grand bargain” in which all outstanding issues would be dealt with – including (implicitly) the question of Israel.

    The response of the Iranian leadership to the failure of diplomacy was to batten down the hatches by installing a more aggressively nationalistic and overtly fundamentalist government (by preventing any credible alternative candidates from standing in the 2005 elections) and ratcheting up the level of confrontation with the US and its allies. The message is exactly what we have seen in the recent arrest / abduction of the British personnel – “either give us some of what we want, or we will make life difficult for you in whatever way we can”.

    The US, of course, as well as making a mighty rod for its own back in Iraq, has provided the Iranians with a major new source of leverage against it. The Iranians believe the Americans are unlikely, in the final analysis, to attack them (at least, directly) because of the huge political and economic downside of doing so, which hardly needs elaborating. They have embarked on this risky course because they see the struggle with the US as being literally of existential importance. They also seem to believe that any attack, if it did come, would be limited in scope (however damaging), and survivable by the regime.

    In other words, what we are witnessing is, in effect, a game of “chicken” between the US and Iran. I don’t think Iran will blink first.

    I suspect that the present stand-off will be resolved one way or the other fairly soon – if the US is going to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities it will need to do so quickly, or else the radioactive fallout from the bombed nuclear facilities will be catastrophic.

    Who is elected in the 2009 Iranian presidential election will depend on whether the Guardian Council feels it is in its interests to display a “nice” or “nasty” face to the world. In the latter case, it may be Dr Ahmadinejad, or it may be someone else – it hardly matters, as the President and Parliament have little real power.

  27. 说到穆斯林,有一些令人不安的事情。皮尤研究中心对美国穆斯林的民意调查结果刚刚公布,政治正确的人们正争先恐后地对此做出积极的评价。不过,不要相信他们的话——请查看第 54 页 PDF.
    在回答针对平民目标的自杀性爆炸是否合理以捍卫伊斯兰教的问题时,26% 18-29 岁的美国穆斯林表示“是”,另有 5% 表示他们不知道或拒绝回答。

    这意味着美国有数十万穆斯林纵容针对平民的自杀式爆炸事件。你愿意打赌这些人中的一小部分人有一天不会帮助外国穆斯林在这里引爆核武器吗?

    尽管布什当总统时表现得很糟糕,但我仍然希望我们能再找到一位共和党人。只是因为我担心民主党可能会终止布什针对国内穆斯林的监视行动。

  28. Given that Israel has stated unequivocally that it will not allow it to happen, and that they presumably have much better intelligence in this matter than we do, I think we should take him at his word.

    Oh yes, just as the Israelis provided the US with such good intelligence about Iraq’s WMD’s.

  29. Troops? No one is talking about invading Iran, just bombing it.

    No one knows for sure (particularly with this administration) where bombing will lead. At any rate there would be other forms of blowback from a bombing campaign, diplomatic for instance. Even though tough guys like you don’t care what the world thinks, there has already been enough ruinously bad diplomacy for three or four administrations.

    The point is moot, though, you’re not going to get the bombing you long for. Whether this means Iran flirts with obliteration by immediately nuking Tel Aviv (seems unlikely) or we are forced to go a more sensible route with them, time will show.

  30. I’m a non-jew who favors aggressive action against Iran and disruption of its weapons program. The number of isteve commenters favoring military action is higher than might be expected. But then again the site pulls in a rational readership. I read about 20 pages of “Pity the Nation: The Abduction of Lebannon”, by Robert Fisk, which were so filled with (well written) shock stories of tribal blood letting it changed my entire perspective on the middle east. In-bred, throat slitting tribalists + the great satan concept + nuclear weapons = ??.

  31. Taking a page from Pablo Escobar, I favor a “plato o plomo” approach in which epic bribes/aid might allow us to accomplish both reform and weapons containment without necessarily resorting to military action. The plomo option, however, would always be on the table.

  32. I read about 20 pages of “Pity the Nation: The Abduction of Lebannon”, by Robert Fisk, which were so filled with (well written) shock stories of tribal blood letting it changed my entire perspective on the middle east.

    Perhaps, but take anything written by Fisk with a grain of salt. In fact, make that a sizable chunk of rock salt. This is a man who notoriously couldn’t even get Jesus’ place of birth right. Fisk’s name has been become 代名词 with easily identified inaccuracies and shoddy argumentation on the internet.

  33. 事实上,我收回对轰炸伊朗的非常有限的支持。

    我只是想说,如果你在哲学上支持轰炸伊朗,那么这样做仍然是愚蠢的 战略性 就我们目前的部队部署和移民情况而言。

    我个人认为,即使你能纠正这些严重的战略问题,轰炸伊朗在地缘政治上仍然不是一个好主意,但至少你可以开始在战略上支持它。

    现在,吞并下加利福尼亚州, 这是 出于多种原因,这个想法是有意义的。

  34. the Abduction of Lebannon”, by Robert Fisk, which were so filled with (well written) shock stories of tribal blood letting…

    You mean incidents like 卡纳?

    Yes, it is very disturbing that middle eastern countries like Israel have nukes.

  35. Iran could be stopped from building nukes without the use of force. Real economic pressure (which would require getting the Europeans on board for more than just interminable negotiations) Could bring Iran to its knees. Its oil production has been dropping 7% per year, unemployment is over 20%, and it is heavily dependent on imports of refined gasoline. Even without a cut off of those gas imports, Iran was just forced to raise its gas prices by 25%. Iran’s not a strong country economically.

    Perhaps in return for giving up nuke ambitions, we could offer to build enough gas refineries in Iran that they would be self-sufficient in that area.

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