The type of anti-Semitism displayed, by people like Langdon, is that which comes from a tiny number of status obsessed English bumpkins, always rejected and maligned by their peers, who have discovered a tiny shred of aristocracy in their otherwise ignoble lineage, leading them to delusions of natural leadership, if only it weren’t for (((them))).

You can occasionally meet one, at an expensive club in London, which they can’t afford, and no one cool wants to go to anyway, wherein they thinly disguise their fretting over their declasse life, by name-dropping irrelevant minor peers.

It isn’t that they are actually stupid and it isn’t that they are actually failures, it is just that they have made certain quieter choices in life, but don’t know it yet. In their confusion, in the meantime, it is good that they can find relief, by occasionally putting on a tweed jacket and strolling around like the bad guys from Caddyshack.

It is a weakly rational version of undergoing past life regression, imagining yourself an Aztec Princess, and then spending decades obsessing over evil Conquistadors; except the Jews are no Conquistadors. The Conquistadors did actually take control of their societies and were as charismatic and handsome as they were cruel. The real Jews in the English elite tend to enter like all middle class strivers who succeed, get rich on something, send their children to “public” schools, be blended away and in.

Indeed the only satire made now pokes fun at the old establishment, like punching the corpse of a once-ferocious zoo animal, or the people who still hold the old beliefs; the elderly, the less educated, the rural and provincial. The powerless.

These people voted for Trump. Not only should they be satirized, but they should have that satire blasted into their skulls 24/7 like Gitmo torture victims — perhaps more Steven Colbert ice cream jokes as they’re dragged into the Walmart FEMA Camps for vaccine truancy.

Better photos of Sukhoi’s single-engine stealth fighter. It reportedly is an actual flying prototype not just a model. 6/https://t.co/QGOyW5jl1m pic.twitter.com/3UvIhLHgM6

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 16, 2021

I prefer to think of you as a spiteful mongrel, like Lenin

Just as 2% Jews dominate the world, so too 3% of Jewish ancestry dominates Karlin’s personality.

There is no escape, Karlin.

Here’s another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots? In another words, could you keep all their unique traits: their thick skulls, 4x visual acuity, impressive tolerance to temperature changes, and ability to eat what would make anyone else throw up, while radically increasing their IQ?

And what about combining other HBD traits? The high altitude tolerance of Tibetans, the cold adaptation of Eskimos. The alcohol reaction of the Chinese, to discourage drunkenness. The small bodies of pygmies to reduce the need for rations.

Perhaps, there would also be a way to take super-tasters and increase their abilities so that they rivaled blood hounds in their tracking ability.

Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child

TFR is dropping like a rock.

China’s Nightmare –

View post on imgur.com

With China having one of the worst demographics in the world, it becomes more and more clear that the ignorant talk of some “Sinotriumphalists” about China reaching 3 times the GDP of the US is becoming a joke.

China will get no more than 1,5 bigger GDP in MER and 1,9 times in PPP and will be lucky if the US does not overtake it again later in the century.

Here, they’ve recovered their real place within society. 🙂
Fabulous album that I just bought yesterday and am listening to today!

Economies of scale will remain regardless

For the US too.

plenty of cheap labor available for a few more decades in Central Asia

I doubt that China will launch large scale immigration policies, east asian countries are not fans of that.

Also I don’t know if you’ve been keeping track..

I’m. Yet the number of asians in the US is estimated to increase as Asian immigration is overtaking Latino immigration and starts to dominate US population inflows.

This post was intended to provoke discussion, the US has issues too, and possible negative scenarios too.

These dreams of maximizing a single quality strike me as based on a very deep mistake.

Things are holistic – they come in sets, in “clusters”. You can’t have the good without the bad.

You can’t simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it’s relationship to everything else in it’s cluster.

Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining. If you wish one, you wish the other.

Will the crypto market continue to punish me for trusting in a crypto summer?

Just a note:
Luke Harding was caught red handed with plagiarism. You can find details in many places, including:
https://exiledonline.com/luke-harding-porn-read-the-guardians-apology-to-the-exile-over-luke-harding-plagiarism/
https://thealtworld.com/caitlin_johnston/luke-hardings-continued-employment-discredits-all-western-media

Those who grew up in the late 20th century were living in a highly unusual time, one that could never be sustained, a sexual and cultural revolution that began in 1963 or 1968. But it has ended and, as all revolutionaries must do after storming the Bastille, they have built Bastilles of their own.

That may not be exactly what happened. The 60’s revolutionaries and their assorted hangers-on were happy pushing openness and more of everything – until they started to lose the argument. Then the woke maniacs shut down the public space because they were losing, roughly around 2015-18. One could see it as Bastille building, but it could also be simple inability to compete, a fear of looking ridiculous.

On a smaller scale, hapless Luke Harding has been a professional Russophobe for years. His last attempt is so pathetic that it reminds me of the time he (or some other Guardianista) complained that a Moscow laundry wouldn’t give him his shirt without a claim ticket – they squarely blamed Putin for this outrage. To peddle “the most promising candidate” as anything other than a boiler-plate busy work (if it happened at all) is scraping the bottom even for the Guardian. It can take a long time to slide into oblivion, they have been at it for years.

On China’s National Judicial Exam, taken by hundreds of thousands of aspiring lawyers and judges, the following question was asked: “If you could rescue either your mother or your girlfriend from a deadly fire, which one would you rescue?” The ministry of justice later confirmed that the correct answer is that you save your mother; you are legally obligated. I wonder if saving the mother would be the result across various countries, occupations, and social classes.
The Chinese Bar-Exam-question story:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinese-law-test-examines-crime-choosing-save-girlfriend-over-mother-a6671216.html

Ok, someone please translate this article to english. I cant understand any of this. You drunk? What is the point of this? I only drank one beer, it is not possible i forgot english language completely. Maybe you are a retard, having fun there to write complete nonsense on purpose, to make us think we forgot how to read?

Is it too late for the Zulu to separate from other blacks? Will South Africa divide in the future?

I fail to see a problem with “Freedom phone”. I wouldn’t buy one but I don’t see what’s so sneer-worthy about this idea.

There is an increasing number of the so-called conservative intellectuals who like to ridicule “rightoids”. Hanania is one. Karlin wants to get on that train, too. What’s interesting to me is that there is nothing like this on the left. There is a ton of stupid “leftoids”, in fact whole demographics of them. But the smartest progressive intellectuals never make fun of those people. To the contrary, they are busy creating epicycles within epicycles to explain how someone like Ibram X. Kendi is not stupid but actually very smart.

Re: Bashibuzuk’s sci-fi idea. Isn’t that basically the premise of Zardoz? There must be hundreds of books written around this idea going back to H.G. Wells’s Time Machine. My favorite is the forgotten classic Engine Summer by John Crowley.

Involuntary neuralink to troll them remotely 24/7 directly into their brain.

My most up to date estimates/projections for the World's TFR:

2005 2.60
2010 2.51
2015 2.48
2016 2.49
2017 2.45
2018 2.40
2019 2.37
2020 2.30
2021 2.27

The World dipping below replacement level (2.23 at the moment) is just a matter of a few years.

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) July 16, 2021

Global fertility rate will likely drop below replacement in a few years.

Yes, you could.

The only reason why for example we don’t have gorilla strength is because we had to specialize for more brain. With selective breeding, this can be reversed, as due to modern agriculture, that is obsolete. We can have absolutely ludicrous gains “naturally.”

Now, the problem with Abos – is that there’s an absolutely hilariously ungodly small amount of purebloods left. Albeit with inserting all the larpwhites into the group I think something could be made…

My perspective is not one of building great, world-beating countries. I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

Nonetheless, the US is well-placed to ‘perform” well. I believe there is a general trend towards higher fertility for educated women, probably because of better technology. I also see that the US will continue to attract the cognitive elite to move there from everywhere, including China, for the indefinite future.

I like this sort of examination. The best way to judge someone’s integrity and character for such kinds of work is to ask those kinds of “difficult” questions.

I’d argue that saving the girlfriend is the correct option. The parents, well, by creating me, have done their jobs, and became obsolete. The girlfriend has more potential.

Let’s try to use actual numbers.

In 2050, China’s population might be 1.38 billion (down from 1.41 billion today). I’m adjusting a UN population estimate based on the results released from the 2020 Census to get this figure. In 2050, the US population will be 390 million based on the projection of the US Census. China’s population will still be about 3.5 times larger in 2050. So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger. I agree with you that 300% is far-fetched but 150% seems low to me.

In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian). Can you imagine the GDP per capita of the US is $65,000 this year if the country had the projected demographics of 2050? It would be lower than $65,000 and China would catch up faster.

Are there any assumptions you don’t agree with in the calculation? What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

* The Economist notes that the Italian team that took the Euro 2020 was all white.

Good spot by AK.

Does anyone else remember decades ago when The Economist was credible? Now, they are more cringe worthy than The New York Times… Which takes *real* effort.

I picked out the retweet below a couple days ago planning for my:

😆 Weekly Open Thread Humor [WOTH] 😂

As some have commented on animations, three GIF’s are below the [MORE] tag.

I have no idea who the child & parents are #3, but that is real creativity on display.

PEACE 😇

ThE itALiAn TeAM haS tOo ManY ItAliAnS oN iT pic.twitter.com/2sZbZCMImf

— Wonder Doge (@WonderDoge1) July 14, 2021

Do you think Willy Woo is a con man?

Scammer buys a $125 Chinese shitphone, sells it at 4x markup with preinstalled apps from shitty Twitter clones that can’t even keep their data secure, fellow grifters who shill it get a 10% cut. Well, if the MAGA people want to spend an extra $375 for some slick advertising and installing apps that just happen to not be on Google Play, with the difference going to their favorite grifters… It’s a free market, I don’t really see a “problem” either. 🤷‍♂️

Many people have signed up for more foolish things.

It would he interested to know number of Freedom Phones sold (revenue) versus paid endorsements and advertising (expenses). The profit margin may not be that high looking at everything all-in.

PEACE 😇

The dramatically under reported story of the week (1)

The Second Amendment Foundation said this week’s ruling by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals declaring the ban on handgun sales to young adults in the 18-20-year age group to be unconstitutional is a “monumental victory for Second Amendment rights.”

Judge Julius N. Richardson, writing for the majority, observed, “Looking through this historical lens to the text and structure of the Constitution reveals that 18- to 20-year-olds have Second Amendment rights. Virtually every other constitutional right applies whatever the age. And the Second Amendment is no different.”

“Judge Richardson, in my estimation, has authored one of the best-written opinions in any gun rights case I’ve ever read,” said SAF founder and Executive Vice President Alan M. Gottlieb. “He has detailed the issue, provided the history and offered a perspective that doesn’t bow to political correctness.”

They ruling lays out the metaphorical red carpet for an additional appeal: (2)

The panel majority went on to point out that, even pre-dating the ratification of the U.S. Constitution and the Second Amendment within, 11 of the 13 original colonies had militia laws with an age threshold of 16 years to bear arms while the two outliers, Delaware and Pennsylvania, recognized age 18.

One can predict the Leftoid reaction to a case allowing individuals under 18 to buy guns. Yet they are simultaneously saying the same group has sufficient decision making prowess to change genders. The hypocrisy will be entertainment.

PEACE 😇
___________

(1) https://www.ammoland.com/2021/07/gun-owners-hail-monumental-victory-for-gun-rights-in-4th-circuit-ruling/

(2) https://www.guns.com/news/2021/07/14/court-finds-federal-21-and-over-law-on-handguns-unconstitutional

I would prefer people just to have creative, free and secure lives.

Interestingly, but I once thought up a scenario of some sort of hyper-oppressive government or AI that’s also at the same time benevolent. So how could this be?

The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity, freedom and security, they need to be liberated from everything, including government. So basically anarchy. Except, anarchy doesn’t provide for security, and doesn’t last long. People have needs they can’t fulfill themselves.

Therefore, they need to actually be made as self-sufficient as possible. By any means necessary, and as quickly as possible. You don’t need to govern gods.

Therefore, to accomplish this, an incredibly oppressive system that’s practically the exact opposite of what you prefer is instituted, where everyone’s lives revolve constantly and exclusively on improving themselves by any means necessary. This could last centuries.

The catch is, is it worth, to doom billions, trillions even, to a lifetime of suffering, so that their descendants become basically godlike and have no needs at all which they can’t provide for themselves (sustenance/shelter/water etc) apart from socialization, allowing them to truly fully express their potential and creativity?

Yes, people have been grappling with whether great benefit makes great evil worthwhile for a long time. I understand why, but all of that stuff seems very tiring to me, and distracting from what actually exists.

I am simpler. I just see people as on their individual journeys and that they may need a little push, here and there, to self-reflect along the way, with the culture being nudged towards basic tolerance, proficiency and respect for freedom.

I do have ideas about how a government may better achieve this, but I also recognise that my ideas have less epistemological legitimacy than the general conglomeration of ideas which result in real world policy.

That doesn’t mean I can’t disagree with it, as I have a voice and must respect myself, but it also means I need not get too upset by all of what I perceive as nonsense.

Sometimes people choose darkness, because that is what they need, and I cannot be expected to pull them out of it. Trying to hard to do so will only dim me, and freak them out.

Observe people, report back to them what you and perhaps take their chain of thought one step forward. That’s about as much as I want to do, never can do, otherwise I would be taking their own meaning away from them.

whatever one’s thoughts on America’s trajectory, the countries that would constitute potential sources of high quality immigrants are improving at a much faster clip. In the 2000s, most surveyed Chinese students wanted to remain in the US, by the 2010s, the vast majority intended to go home and build up their own country.

There’s still a lot who stay in the US, and there’s plenty of cognitively elite people in lots of other countries.

Furthermore, the US is exciting and fun. Staying in China is safe and homely.

Hayek got it right when he pointed out that modern economies run on information. The US is great at this, and has positioned itself extremely well to take advantage of it in the future.

Take computer games. I just read an article on their censorship in China, which China is very extreme with. This is good for building up a domestic Chinese industry, but much worse for fusing the rest of the world to their market. Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

This means, that in many different ways, China is cut off from global information streams, from which the highest level of development is drunk, while the US is the country which all of them actually flow through.

I appreciate that the above point is not very fleshed out, but it is only just coalescing as a clear image in my head. I will reflect on it.

No joke – I was very surprised, though in a good way.

All the big football teams have extensive scouting networks and Italy has had a fairly large surge in African migrants this millenium. Its no secret that lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages ( much easier to identify a good youth athlete and convert him into a semi-decent footballer who can be sold for a big profit, than it is to identify a great pure football-talent kid)…… so you would have expected a result of these processes to be Italia having some generic big, strong and quick Africans in their team.

The composition of the squad is very unusual in that they are from all parts of Italy from a club perspective, with many not even at good performing clubs. Spain, as with Italy also appears with their football team to be reversing the political/social trends in their country-the 1 African guy in the squad didn’t even play in the tournament.

France, even though historically they have been successful in the big football tournaments, often look very ugly and disjointed in their football style – most probably because of all the different whites, Arabs and Africans they have. Italia looked very much a true team, very good to watch

I am actually sorry for my comment. It was far too harsh and on the nose. I guess I miss 1960s London too. When rents in Cadogan Square were affordable and you could park outside your favourite nightclub, before driving home on genteel streets. I was born decades later, but I’ve heard the stories and it all sounds great.

You can’t simply isolate one element and maximize it without regard for it’s relationship to everything else in it’s cluster.

This is my fear as well, especially with the brain. And suppose you could somehow add the two things together, without one affecting the other, then would the rest of the body even match up with it? Would the volume of the skull be large enough? The neck strong enough? Would the root metabolism be sufficient to feed it?

I think it was Greg Cochran who had the idea of making super Neanderthals. I don’t know if there is really enough ancient DNA to do it, even if we could. But I think it would be a pretty interesting idea, to try to make a Neanderthal Newton.

Maybe, the unique qualities of the Neanderthal brain would mean that such a genius would make unique discoveries. Or maybe, he would be an evil genius who wants revenge on us for displacing his relatives.

Some of it is possible, but its rarely that simple. High altitude tolerance is something that has been looked into, I believe, as it is pretty distinctive.

https://theconversation.com/mixed-ancestry-genetic-research-shows-a-bit-of-native-american-dna-could-reduce-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-159118

Also, every good thing has a downside, and every bad thing a silver lining.

Not all downsides at applicable in modern society; e.g. many animal models do not maximize brainpower since it is extremely calorically costly. Humanity is not generally limited by calories.

That said, a lot of traits are complex. Simply classifying them as “good” or “bad” is not very useful, and there are certainly possibilities for optimization(e.g. even traditional breeding).

The conclusion that for people to have maximum creativity

Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/why-imposing-restrictions-can-actually-boost-creativity

No vampires w/ blood in Europe? Doubt it. Did the EU furries get an upgrade to their autism again?

Anyways, the BIG titles all come out of America, but they’re kinda bland, just like blockbuster movies. True artistic, soulful games, even if a bit janky, seem to come from the East, and not including the Japanese crappy grindfests weebs jack off to – titles like Pathologic, The Void, Underrail, the Witcher, Serious Sam.

Granted, it was directed and designed by an American expat adequately named American, but the Chinese also gave us the underrated gem of 2011, Alice: Madness Returns, which is simply a beautiful game, even if weakened by EA’s interference.

The US and satraps – seem to be running on fumes when it comes to actual creativity. It’s either stifled to maximize cash grabs, or butchered by wokeoids, or doesn’t even try. Few strong exceptions, like Valve, but there’s still no that feel in many of them, you know.

What the Andeans have is different from what the Tibetans have. It is the quick and dirty solution, if you like, compared to the Tibetans who got theirs from Denisovans living on the Tibetan Plateau for hundreds of thousands of years. It definitely has costs, as well as benefits.

BTW, I heard an interesting theory about intelligence recently. Supposedly, very smart people tend to have more autoimmune diseases. One theory is that intelligence – the extra awareness – somehow impinges on the body’s homeostatic mechanisms, throwing them out of wack. Of course, this might be a limitation for trying to make super intelligent humans.

Wasbappin’s Substack should be required reading for the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian high command. BTW I have also started my own Substack, I expect my first post there by the end of the month:

https://eharding.substack.com/p/coming-soon

Chinese products simply can’t be as interesting to most other places – they can’t even show cults for India, zombies for the Phillipines, vampires with blood for Europe.

Genshin/Honkai Impact and Girl’s Frontline, both Chinese games, have gigantic fanbases – iirc, Girl’s Frontline recently beat out Touhou as the largest and most active fanbase. A lot of the fanbase is obviously American, as you can see yourself:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/

The censorship is not always that strict, let’s put it that way.

This is about natural limitations. For example, a start up entrepreneur being limited by how much money he can get from investors and on what terms. This is not about the current BS of political factions attempting to impose artificial limitations in the form of taxation, socialist economic policies, “woke” sjw bullshit, and the like. The first set are a part of reality. The second set has no validity whatsoever.

I’m. Yet the number of asians in the US is estimated to increase as Asian immigration is overtaking Latino immigration and starts to dominate US population inflows.

With some exceptions, I have no problem with Asian immigration.

Immigration restrictionism is breaking up into two distinct groups. Those who look at immigration in terms of human capital for productive accomplishment and those who look at it in terms of culture and ethnicity as a value independent of human capital for productive accomplishment. Those in the first camp tend to look down on those in the second camp.

In the 90’s I decided the ideal human society is 80% East Asian pragmatism and 20% Western Heinleinian libertarianism, assuming currently existing humans. I have not experienced for a nanosecond anything that could ever change my mind on this.

Hanania reminds me of old penniless aristocrat sneering at entrepreneurs. Selling stuff that people might need is an uncouth way to make money! It’s practically stealing! The only genteel way to earn a living is inherit from a rich uncle work in academia or a think tank. Selling phones is grift but asking for grants is NOT grift!

So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

This reminds me of how they used to laugh at Fox News when it just opened. And true, in its early years the channel was an absolute amateur hour; CNN was ahead by leaps and bounds. But eventually they stopped sneering and started seething, which is what they do to this day.

I agree!

(I already used up my reaction comments)

It’s interesting how grifters get so much more respect than honest people.

I for one am grateful for the content you provide.

If I’m ever in Moscow, I’ll stand you a pint.

Sorry, no vampires with blood in China, which is an example of the Chinese ruining their own creativity for the European market.

Chinese censorship of video games is very extreme. It is also extreme in other areas, but this is where the producers have to expend most effort to avoid it.

Weirdly, they allow foreign Steam to work, but who knows for how long. For games to pass censorship, you can have no blood, of any colour, no people coming out of the ground, no cults, no politics and a whole bunch of other restrictions, none of which they make clear. Put your game in front the censors 3 times, and fail, and that’s it.

It is a huge and odd country, which almost no one foreign begins to understand. It is also incubating some serious weirdness; which makes sense for 1.4 billion people, which is a lot more than the US, the Anglosphere and Europe, combined.

So the software may not be the best at the moment. Companies that have been around for a few months and have maybe a dozen employees make a product that’s not as developed as the one made by companies with tens of thousands of employees and market cap of hundreds of billions. Who knew?

The Freedom Phone guy didn’t develop a product. It’s a Chinese phone. It already existed.

The piss poor security of the Twitter clones isn’t something that can be laughed off. Their promoters abused the trust of the MAGA cultists. They thought that the grifters had their back. Now their data is in the hands of people who want to ruin them.

And another thing: Do you go out of your way to sound so patronizing, or does it come naturally?

There very little value in the genomics data even if they were collected for the whole humanity. Almost anything that is single-gene and matters was discovered, and none of the current DNA analyses can do gene-gene interactions. There is no statistical power to analyze the interaction between 6 million times 6 million pairs of SNPs, and, for some reason, there is no procedure to whittle down the set of pairs to a meaningful subset.

Also, “big data” is just a pile of data: if it is representative, samples can be small; if it’s not representative, the conclusions will be misleading.

It takes a old billionaire with little self-respect to sell 23andme or similar companies. It takes a setup like the one when Murdoch was bullied into buying Myspace, just because “it’s new and better”.

Creativity, surprisingly, is not improved by absolute freedom.

It’s not surprising at all really. Not to me anyway. I’ve always believed that complete freedom is disastrous for creativity.

The idea that freedom is good for creativity is a hippie-dippie idea.

thanks for posting the newly listed equities. You have strong enough predictive ability that I’ll just throw some cash at these for a few years and then hold them. (I want to encourage guys here to not sell assets unless selling gets them F.U. money, hold, never sell). Really like the idea of buying Yandex, which you brought up, will be plowing cash into that just as soon as I’m done with my current crypto buying goal.

No surprise:

NB in Guardian newsbreak, "… apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat" on Trump from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”. 1/https://t.co/0JoaL8kyFF

— Craig Unger (@craigunger) July 15, 2021

He relies on Yuri Shvets and Olga Lautman.

Looking at the western media, there is almost zero about Putin’s article on Ukraine – just proves what a sinister and corrupt operation their Russian section is.

Ukrop media have a policy of not directly discussing the content of it ( except the “peremoga” because he as “forced” to do it in Ukrainian and this “v” or “na” Ukrop BS) – probably out of fear normal Ukrainians may “fall in love with it” LOL.

There also doesn’t appear to have been a single attempt in Western media to establish facts over the Ryanair flight that had to land in Belarus after a fake bomb threat. Its essential to know if he was forced into landing the plane by order….. or if he and Belarus were following standards procedure , what (if any) conversations he had with Lithuanian ATC ( like if they refused the plane to enter their airspace because they were also treating the threat as credible – I think the first e-mail of the threat was sent to a Lithuanian airport), conversations with Belarus ATC and their Air Force….. and just general post flight comment from this pilot, who looks to have vanished. The entire incident looks as blatant a Western provocation as ever

This is pretty funny.

pic.twitter.com/b01SVDNCjq

— Current American Citizen (@CurrentCitizen) July 14, 2021

Not to say that one or another option is more correct, but the point here seems to be it was legal exam, so probably CCP Chinese laws have explicit or implicit priorities in such situations towards formal family members instead of non formalized relationships.

Whether is it right or wrong should be an object of philosophy/ethics exam perhaps. Wonder what the correct lawful answer in current China would be if the choice should have been done between parents and official wife, not just girlfriend.

But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

Go watch Kemono Friends. It isn’t about a bunch of Animal Girls, but a tale of post-catastrophic natural lives, human self-discovery and garden-variety Platonism (in the lore)

Your mindset is basically no different from the WEF, and maybe even more extreme than theirs (at least they are supposed to deal with social problems in a self-serving way while you are all about ruining people in the medium-term)

There is no social model that is preferrable or conductive to human flourishing, but what will exist as human adaptation to changing circumstances. Don’t mandate a model, observe and act, and maybe predict. This is why fundamentally, both the Great Reset and Great Awakening are wrong.

It would be not first time though as white Neanderthals or probably not so black homo erectuses outside Africa also were swept away by negro homo sapiens waves coming out from Africa, but in some quick 40k years from now they all current total blacks should whiten up somewhat again 😉

My biggest disagreement is with projecting the population size or economic size of basically everywhere based on deliberately ignoring what the WEF can do. The population of the West (US + Anglosphere + EU) can drop by maybe 1/5, and GDP per capita 1/4-2/3 (judging from the last time this happened, the collapse of actually-existing socialism in the 90s). I’m not saying Russia or China will be immune to this, but they’ll be a bit less affected.

If you take a stabilizing Chinese economy and a fracturing and failing American economy, we could actually have GDP per capita parity (of the American collapse kind). If China still had 1.2B people (100M lower than the low-end UN projections) then and the US 220M (losing 1/3), that would easily be ~5.5x. It’s only a back-of-the-envelope estimation and we don’t know what the world will be even next year.

(That 220M figure is assuming a sociocide on the scale of Khmer Rouge and 20 more years of stable population loss post-Soviet style. It’s not as radical as Deagel’s 100M in 2030)

There was some WN writer (I think it was Andrew Hamilton, but I can’t find it) who quoted some Jewish philosopher or rabbi or whatever from a century or two ago who apparently believed something close to what you’ve said here, that even a smidgeon of “Jewish blood” has outsized effects which incline the person to favor Jews. (I may be misremembering that last bit, but not the part about outsized effects.) The WN writer’s point was that Jews would know best about such things, so whites should take the argument seriously.

Here’s another sci-fi idea: could you take Abos and through genetic modification turn them into superior soldiers and fighter pilots?

The plot is that it turns out it is possible, and a number of scientists get to work on it in utmost secrecy, but someone lets the cat out of the bag and the public finds the idea so abhorrent – Abo supersoldiers? – that it finally precipitates the long-awaited normie revolt.

I think the “correct” answer should be the person you love more. Some people justifiably hate their mothers, so it would be perfectly understandable if they let them perish. Or others may love their mothers, but have a very serious girlfriend they intend to marry, and it would be understandable if they picked her over the mother. Personally, there’s no girl I’m even close to that serious about, so there’s no chance I’d pick some silly slut over my own mother, even in the case that my mother was sick and only had a short time to live.

It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features. Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

It would take millennia of subsistence living in harsh climates to trigger forces of natural selection that would eradicate the negro features.

They’ve done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

Either way, the negro destroys civilisation.

Which “Negro”? Bantu? West African? Hamitics? Descendents of slaves? Mulattos? White trash can destroy civilization too. Right now anti-complexity tendency predominate in Blacks, but it isn’t a given.

AK: Such comments aren’t productive. Don’t do this again.

96% Khalsa, 4% rest.

Effort post on Internal Demographics/immigration, Global Liberalism & Bantu-dom below

But is it dropping in Africa fast enough? If not, then this is just a temporary lull before the world is swept by a negro tsunami.

You can’t simply rely on fertility rate decreases to keep them out. “Avoid the groid” must evolve from a sage local watchword to a global moral imperative – the stuff of formal compacts – else, in the fullness of time, we’ll all eventually succumb to negrofuxation. If that happens, any alien civilization that seeks us out for having decoded the gold disc on Voyager would surely shudder at what became of the late, great planet Earth.

They’ve done exactly that and produced adaptations that is not conductive to complex social organizations!

Harsh climates might be different – hot/cold, wet/dry etc. Subsistence living in harsh ice age northern latitudes seem to favour skin melanin reduction for better survival while it is inverse situation ir harsh hot southern areas.

“Scientific racism” is an accurate label of what your types are advocating, and that’s a compliment.

I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

Dude, I hope for your sake you’re just some kind of shill. If you’re sincere, lol, good luck, you’ll be needing plenty.

(I’ll say this though, the ability to sit tight when you’re on a winner is indeed golden; but if you’re on a loser, uh-uh. So not only do you need some reliable way to distinguish between the two – ie how much room or time do you give the latter to turn into the former – but also some reliable way of ensuring you’ll have enough of the former to make up for the absolute, total inevitability of the latter. AK’s “advice,” apparently based on no more than the most simplistic application of technical analysis “principles”- unless that Roko dude actually has some other sound reason for his assertion, which I kinda doubt – is not going to help you in either of those two tasks, not even close.)

Racism is between humans not species.

I suppose your type missed the chance to let Nazi win and wipe Africa from the Earth, Man in the High Castle style.

Firstly, what “your type”? If you’re Asian, you’re in the same boat as me, according to the reasoning I employed.

Secondly, why must you assume the worst? Keeping a group out of your living space doesn’t require “exterminating” them, sheesh.

Not in Africa.

See, the problem everyone and their dog among the HBD rightoids ignore is the fact that for practically anyone, even stepping on African soil prior to the late 19th century was basically an instant death from a thousand diseases. The natives weren’t really much better off either.

Evolution of high intelligence and civilization-supporting “hardware” requires resource competition. Africa has a lot of resources, even if classic field agriculture isn’t suited to savannas (see: Cerrado being cultivated only after the 70s). But I digress – Africa has a lot of resources, which means to get competition for those, you need a high population…

Enter the 20 bazillion diseases they have. The entire continent becomes a shredder and puts a stop to any evolution that isn’t disease resistance related.

There, mystery solved. No “they didn’t have to work to survive” cope, no seethe, no retardation.

I didn’t say I support it – it’s just a moral question – in practice it would be… impractical.

This is why I didn’t say flat out your approach is wrong. It is not-as-moral, but practical from the perspective from a racial purist point of view, that is often unpragmatic (e.g. China courting African states for their resources)

Instead of an “agree” I mean “thanks”. But what’s the social mode you actually prefer, I’ve been taking the social Darwinist models you’ve described as your own stance.

My views themselves are sort of Darwinistic, but in a very idiosyncratic way. Really, nothing but “everyone gets what they deserve” even if that’s not what they want, or need, or think. You will fulfill your potential whether you want it or not. I’ve devised a very complicated governance system that I could describe as “corporatist technocratic Iran.” Note that the corporatist part means running a state like a body or organism, not governance by corporations.

Both the fertility of the educated and the uneducated is falling in the US, only the fertility of the educated is dropping at lower pace compared to the uneducated. Its all time low for both groups.

China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite. Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

I see US progressives, for the last few decades, not as making the future, but as seeing where it is going and placing themselves where best to take advantage. They occasionally slip up, like they did with assuming that men’s and women’s athletics records would fully converge, but they swiftly reposition and later reap the rewards.

So if Chinese GDP per capita nominal is 50% of US GDP per capita nominal, China will have an economy 175% larger.

Did you even calculate what kind of growth rate China will need to reach 175% of US GDP MER by 2050? It will need average growth rate of 4,75 for the 2020 – 2050 period, something that no one, not even China, estimates as possible. In fact Xi Jinping’s target for 2020 – 2035 is 4,7 %, and after 2035 chinese growth will pretty be low.

The majority of economic and financial institutions i have seen give it around 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. Bloomberg recently estimated China having just1,35 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050 in their base case.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

Currently China is 70,4 % of US in GDP MER. Everybody, including the Chinese, does not see GDP growth in China being higher than 5 – 5,2 % for 2020-2030 period on average. The US average growth for that period is to be around 2.

For 2030 – 2040 China is given (by almost everyone) 3 – 3.6 GDP average growth rate, the US 1,6.

For 2040 – 2050 China is given 2-2,6 average growth rate, the US 1,5.

At these growth rates, China does not even reach 1,5 times bigger GDP in MER by 2050. You can calculate it yourself.

In 2050, the US population will be a bit over 50% (white + Asian). It is currently 65% (white + Asian).

If you add white hispanics, whites alone in the US are currently nearly 70 %. Not all hispanics are mestizos, as you assume.

And if you have seen PISA data on second gen migrants in the US overall they are not that bad, Europe is worse (it gets lower quality migrants), about 4 IQ points lower than the US average. Certainly not the widespread horror stories about US migrants being dumb as fuck.

What’s the scenario for the US catching up towards the end of the century?

I have seen several, although it is disputed and not everyone among long term analysts agrees.

Generally speaking, it is assumed that a massive demographic fuck up in China may cause the US to overtake it again later in the century.

In this study, they use recent low birth rates and they estimate the US reaching “only” 365 million people by 2100, with China collapsing from 1.4 billion today to 710 million by 2100, leading to the US overtaking China in GDP again by 2098.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

I’m not saying that the current throttle is good, but the article clearly indicates cultural(or even voluntary) restrictions inspiring more creativity.

It tends to inspire creative ways around the restrictions. Just like smashing someone’s windows “inspires” them to get them fixed.

China has more video gamers than there are people in Europe. They’re always going to contribute something to global cultural and informational streams. It is just that it will remain greatly diminished.

This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

Amusingly, it has blood, zombies dolls, and what is basically a cult. All things you said were banned in China.

While they get it wrong a lot of the time, America is really trying to be an inclusive globalised culture. China is trying to be the opposite.

America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

Perhaps that is better for the Chinese, but I know in which direction global power and information will tend to flow.

You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations, but its the second largest producer of culture worldwide in influence(I remember actual metrics for this, but I can’t find it now). There are dozens and dozens of more “inclusive” civilizations, like all over Latin America, with no real cultural exports, certainly not on that level of profitability.

You also did not read the article.

The article is about taking yourself out of yourself in order to get closer to the wellspring of creativity. You’re approaching it in too linear a manner to see what it is really about.

Regarding ivermectin, you can believe WHO, the corrupt creature controlled by Big Pharma and run by Third-World functionaries. Or believe a professional who does meta-analyses for a living. The interview of Dr. Tess Lawrie by Dr. John Campbell lays out the choice.

I am following closely what is going on with vaccination and everything you said about Pfizer is true and you said it long time ago , every day there is more and more problems . I avoided at work to receive Pfizer thanks God nobody forcing me yet , but also now people on the street stopping people and asking are you vaccinated . My brother is neurologist but pushing for Pfizer he is paid by them to promote vaccination , when I present him credible sources he accused me of propaganda .

One thing I forgot to say is how all successful Chinese games (Azur Lane, Girls’ Frontline, Arknights, Genshin Impact…) outside China, are all in anime artstyle, not the gritty semi-realistic one that has been in tragedy of the commons mode domestically. This means those games have a good chance of passing off as Japanese (and indeed they hire Japanese to run JP servers). Azur Lane even copied the whole premise of Kantai Collection, which was a Japanese runaway success in 2013 (up to 2015)

Growth rates up to 2050

It’s hard to follow your numbers. Can you provide your estimates in the format below to make them easier to calculate?

US annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

China annual average rate of real GDP growth (2021-50):

What is the exchange rate between the yuan and USD in 2050? Moderately higher or lower than it is now (6.5 to 1), or a lot higher or lower?

For inflation, we can simply assume 3% in both countries (inflation doubles every 25 years) as this variable is probably the most difficult to predict.

US racial demographics

Do you count all people who identify as white Hispanic on Census 2020 as functionally equivalent to non-Hispanic whites in contributing to a first-world economy? “According to the 2019 American Community Survey, 65.5% of Latinos identified as white.” Considering the high number of Latinos in the US who identify as white and the big gap in incomes and education for Latinos in the US relative to non-Hispanic whites, I would guess really just a small fraction of Latinos are white enough to be functionally equivalent.

By citing PISA and the number of white Hispanics, what is your ballpark conclusion about the hypothetical effect of 2050 racial demographics on GDP per capita in 2021? Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita? Like reduction under 5%? If so that would not be my estimate.

US overtaking China again

If the extreme scenario comes true of China’s population falling to 700 million in 2100 then I think the US will overtake China in GDP in 2100. But I don’t think such a dire population scenario will happen.

Well the first thing will be Africans over breeding in rural areas swamping the big cities….in their own African countries.

The waves of African migrants to white countries are mainly the relatively urbanised Africans often disadvantaged by the waves of internal rural Africans from much bigger families coming to live in their African cities.

Although relatively poorer and less educated compared to us, these urban ‘cosmopolitan ” Africans are still much more educated and richer, and most importantly – lower TFR, than these rural migrants.

Once they come to Europe I would say its less about their urge to breed,but more about their incentive to breed because of extremely generous EU state handouts given to migrants or refugees with young families – more so if their kids are actually born in an EU state.

I’ve revised my Deagel-style forecasts to something like this, in 2050:
Population GDP pc Total
US 223M 26k 5798B
China 1246M 29k 36134B
It is still built on the same fundamental assumptions as Deagel’s (Great Reset depopulation and a Russian-style economic meltdown). China only needs to grow ~1.4% annually instead of the conventional 3.3-3.8%, due to a stronger demographic collapse and a break-down in international trade. Here it is 6.23x, and China here is also able to surpass the economic blackhole once known as “America” on a per-capita level. If China is fucked up, America will be way worse.

I have produced some “moderate-Deagel” scenarios for the 14 top economies (in GDP PPP). No one will be more populous in 2050 than now, and most of the developed countries are heading for a sharp drop in GDP per capita (Germany might be at 21k vs 56k). My bias says only China and Russia, because of not shooting their feet as proactively, can raise their GDP per capita substantially over a falling population; Brazil and Indonesia will improve slightly too, but far below what conventional economists suggests.

even a smidgeon of “Jewish blood” has outsized effects

I think I posted this joke before, but you reminded me of it.
A sheikh in a Mid-Eastern sheikdom needed blood transfusion. His blood type was so rare, that the only person with compatible blood was a Jew. The Jew agreed to donate blood, and grateful sheikh gave him an expansive car and a huge house. When the sheikh needed another blood transfusion, the Jew readily agreed. Grateful sheikh gave him a box of chocolates. The Jew asked: last time you gave me a car and a house, but now only a box of chocolates. Why? The sheikh answered: last time I did not have any Jewish blood in me.

It makes good sense for a Chinese-allied dictator in Sub-Sahara Africa to actually learn the Dengist example and impose one-child policy. This time, since everyone is black and allowing minorities to breed will mess up the social balance, there should be zero exceptions.

Sad thing Blacks are too self-centered when they are in high places…

Personally i don’t believe in great reset theories about wiping out 1/3 of the US population. Which can only happen via nuclear war, an ultra deadly disease, or banning child birth and immigration.

Funny how you think that I am the one who sounds patronizing and not the people who like to sneer at peasants.

As for the phone, it’s actually not a bad idea. The product here, of course, is not the phone itself but the bundle of apps. It could be a great help for non-technical normies who want to escape the grip of the tech monopolies but wouldn’t know how to do it by themselves. Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure. But eventually someone will get it right.

The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

Basically, my point is, if Pfizer and Moderna “vaccines” have the composition the companies claim, they can’t be effective. If they are effective, they can’t have “disclosed” composition. So, either composition or effectiveness is a lie. In my experience, people lie when the truth is incompatible with their interests.

Speaking of Deagel’s forecast, it’s no longer available on their site, at least I can’t find it. Why would that be?

You seem to assume exchange rates to stay constant or believe growth is computed at exchange rates.

Food production in space experiments are going on nicely. NASA astronauts are going to grow peppers, tasty.

https://news.yahoo.com/nasa-astronauts-aboard-iss-begun-100000458.html

Also, it looks like Russian Nauka module will launch before James Webb Telescope lol, fingers crossed.

Both were planned to launch in 2007 originally. So just a tad behind schedule.

…lazy football scouts prioritise these African kids because they are bigger and quicker at younger ages

Most scouts are lazy: any open-ended work will promote stereotyping and laziness. A world with an infinite competition leads to decrease in meritocracy – replaced with biases, connections and lottery. We can consider merit when there are 5-10 options, when we have 100-1000 possibilities there is no room for it.

Italy has kept enough of its tribal mentality and is one of the bright spots in EU. It is hard to comprehend what happened in the Germanic-Celtic northwest of EU – within a generation or two a massive dead-enders tsunami has devastated the societies there.

And in the financial Wonderland, junk bond yields are now below inflation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/the-junk-bond-market-is-on-fire-this-year-as-yields-hit-a-record-low.html

Do you have an alcoholic uncle? Quick! Grab his bar bill and run over to Goldman Sachs where they will gladly securitize it for you and sell the resulting bond to a pension fund. You will get a nice commission in the process.

And I’m not even kidding – this is inevitable. Everything that can be securitized, will be securitized. Money is irrelevant, debt is everything. The more debt you own, the more debt you want.

Yeah, China seems to have managed to adopted an unique storytelling style so far(the weird mixture of gnosticism, buddhism and quantum universes is pretty amusing), but not really an unique artstyle. But I think there’s cause for hope.

The results of mRNA “vaccinations” are beginning to show: there is an outbreak of covid on British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth with fully “vaccinated” crew. “Vaccinated” UK health minister just contracted covid. Stay tuned.

???…

Quite cringey response above, as those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

Growth rates up to 2050

Various companies and institutions all over the place use real growth rates after removing inflation.

Get some future value calculator and you will see that you need 4,75 % average growth rates for the period of 2020 – 2050 for China to reach 1,75 times bigger MER GDP by 2050, which is something that everyone, including the chinese government, admits that it is impossible.

Variables: China 70 % of US GDP 2020
US 100 % 2020

US Growth rate as per most financial institutions for the 2020 – 2050 period is 1,7 (1,9 – 1,6 – 1,5 as per CBO)
China’s growth rate for that period is 3,4 (5,1-2,9-2,2) (as per World Bank)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

Exchange rate – most estimate no more than 20 % currency appreciation of the CNY by that point. Some estimate no CNY appreciation at all. You are far from 1,75 times bigger China GDP at that point. The only way to get there is via massive 50 % CNY appreciation and i doubt that this will happen.

US racial demographics

If there was no positive white hispanic effect i doubt that the IQ of US migrants (second gen) will be just 4 points below that of the US population, as per PISA.

Do you think it would have a minor effect on GDP per capita?

Why not? The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues. If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa. The US gets some very innovative, high quality migrants, see Karlin’s article on it. Yes, it gets lots of third worlders too, but these effects neutralise each other so the overall IQ drop due to immigration is not that large, as PISA shows.

How much will per capita GDP drop? It will drop for certain, but looking at what i said above

The US is already a very diverse country and yet has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, it is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues

it does not look that it will be a big drop. At least right now we are not seeing anything like this.

Assuming average migrant IQ of 94 it will take a long time IMO before US IQ drops in any meaningful sense. It will be probably 96 by 2100, compared to 98 today. Maybe 10 % lower GDP per capita due to that.

US overtaking China again

Witn Chinese TFR dropping below the quite low of 1,3 of today, – with ongoing urbanisation in China, which will further reduce TFR, it is a possible scenario. But for that to happen, China will also have to reject immigration (which is possible) while the US will also have to prefer Asian immigration (things are going in that direction).

What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/15/china-video-game-censorship-tencent-netease-blizzard

This seems irrelevant to the obvious majority American/European membership of the Reddit board. Notably the associated game also has an active following in the US(note the comment language) with new releases gathering 2+ million views in a little more than a week.

Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

It normally does the opposite.

America is “inclusive” in the sense that it has exported its standards to the entire world; its inclusiveness is questionable.

The difference between our two perspectives on where creativity comes from is too great for us to agree; but I wonder if you can at least see my position?

You may be wrong. Japan is easily one of the least inclusive civilizations

Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

Latin American cultural products tend to be atrocious at this, but Japanese ones tend to be excellent and speak to people on many levels. You can also see this in the way that Japan tolerates extreme weirdness, but Latin American countries, not so much.

Not bad.

Are you a Chicago fan? I was looking up some old songs on YT and came across this Russian cover band. Damn, pretty good, Chicago themselves gave them an ‘official’ stamp of approval.

If there was a significant IQ drop due to immigration, i doubt that this would be the case. It would be seen in GDP growth rates. It would be looking more like South Africa.

The US GDP growth rate has slowed somewhat over the past fifteen years, but the decline has been so slight only a fool would attempt to associate with it a decline in IQ (since there are so many other variables). “More like South Africa” is too vague a statement to bother disputing, but personally, I doubt even a 10 point decline in IQ would make anyone ever think “wow, this country reminds me of South Africa!” Parts of it obviously would (just as they do today), but they would be too few to give the whole country a real South African “feel.”

I approve and endorse Yuri Deigin message:

https://yurideigin.medium.com/get-vaccinated-it-could-help-you-like-not-die-71ebf63555f4

Will this implementation have multiple problems? Sure.

Freedom Phone definitely has problems.

https://gab.com/InfiniteJest/posts/106596917574601626

Genesis was one of the greatest Prog-Rock groups ever. The good news is that all you really need is to have access to albums #3 – #6 (Nursery Crime – The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway) to listen to their finest material. Basically the Peter Gabriel era. Although the following Phil Collins era provided some nice catchy hits, the overall output was rather lame and sluggish IMHO.

I used to like the Group “Chicago” and a similar one called “Blood, Sweat and Tears” (I actually saw this act in concert), however haven’t listened to either group in years. I’ll give your suggestion a listen to, thanks!

What I read. It seems credible and measured as a source.

The Guardian is a terrible source. The Ministry of Culture has various measures, but there’s some degree of flexibility. If it was accurate, what I linked you wouldn’t be possible.

Why do people think that giving exceptions means proving the rule?

I actually don’t know if this applies to media at all, sometimes. I think its generally true, but media has this “superstar all or nothing” quality that seems make exceptions into rules.

I know the idea, but think about it, a lot of breakouts really did come from singular things: Japan’s Akira(and later Evangelion) really anchored an entire anime industry to come, Korea’s SNSD(Girl’s Generation) and BTS has managed to build out its significant niche, and China’s Girl’s Frontline/Henshin/Genshin etc seem to building into stride with Punishing Grey Raven, and continuing on.

I think part of why media is different is that once there is a success, imitators appear quickly and innovate from that(anime has some interesting history with that, with animators really starting a new style like Yoshinori Kanada, and then that style becoming dominant, before another “school of thought” modifies it). And if something is successful internationally, it tends to continue to be so.

Its sorta amusing that Japan continues to manage it while basically ignoring international sales almost totally.

Hard disagree on that one. People do have different meanings of what “inclusivity” is, but, for me, what the Western progressives are awkwardly stumbling towards is a situation where people understand more about themselves, and more about others, than they ever did before.

I think the idea that Japan with its incredibly restrictive codes of behavior, even gendered speech(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_differences_in_Japanese), is more free than Latin America in terms of individuality. Its more complex than that, which I think I can explain a bit better as I used to work a lot with Japan(both professionally and hobby).

Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange. That overall love and level of complexity might be more IQ related than anything.

What Japan really does have is an entire societal structure built around what we would think of as cliques. In a professional level, you sometimes have people who have shared clubs in high school, then switch into professional cliques, which hook into governmental ones, etc. Abe was in one, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Kaigi

This is true on the hobbyist level too, with multiple circles. There’s a lot of surface politeness, but people are actually quite unpleasant to each other – and this is expected, partly because rivalry is valorized and uh, so is bullying.

Bullying in Japanese schools, or ijime, is an entrenched problem. A study by the Tokyo Metropolitan School Personnel in Service Training Center in 2013 found that 66.2 percent of the more than 9,000 children it surveyed had been bullied.

Anyway, part of having so many complex sub-groups in society is that they have leaders that peacock themselves, so you get people like Yoko Taro who get to be really joyfully weird. I don’t think that’s what usually think of inclusivity, though – the moment if their clique fails to be successfully, they’d be mercilessly crushed.

Anatoly I am once again pestering you about the Great Bifurcation text (and a progress report on the book would be nice)

Pretend Bernie is writing this for maximum effect.

Its funny – I was thinking that I first came to really realize that Chinese games had broken out was because a Canadian girl was happily sharing “omg this is so cute” images of Arksknight – like you mentioned, due to the Japanese style, I had not realized that Girl’s Frontline(which I still find weird) had become incredibly popular.

I’ve been mildly amused by the fact that every single one of these games – Arksknight, Honkai, Frontline – all have multiple books worth of complexity in their storylines. There’s definitely some tradition of wuxia complexity that’s being inherited, probably unnecessarily, but its damn amusing and I actually think that seems to be a selling point. A lot of people do like lore and complexity.

And this might be credited to miHoYo alone, but they actually seem to have pulled off the multi-chapter/seasonal game with beauty; I remember way back when the same was attempted in the US, first with small chapters and later with things like Half-Life…which still doesn’t have a conclusion…but miHoYo does seem to have managed it with their content updates to “tell a narrative.” Japanese versions like SinoALICE have not done so as well.

You are informing me of ways in which I may not see the unpleasant side, intolerant side of Japan, but Latin America so much worse than people think.

Northern man, of all colours, really is an angel compared to the alternatives.

Japan has more complex codes which allow for weirdness and a strong emphasis on the clique that can allow a person to be strange.

Sounds like inclusive multiculturalism to me! It may be even better for this purpose than the US alternative.

I am separating out progressive big aims from progressive practices. The practices may be often mad, bad and counter productive, as effective sociology and psychology is hard, but the aims are admirable. This gets forgotten far too often, both by progressives who forget the point, and their critics, who feel oppressed.

Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

A friend of mine sent me this poignant e-mail yesterday. I replied that the only image that I bow to is the one of our Savior. I’m sure that this message will resonate well with many who take part at this blogsite:

First Hero of the WOKE and Cancel Culture:

So a statue of Teddy Roosevelt in front of the Museum of American Natural History in New York City comes down and a bust of George Floyd goes up in Brooklyn borough of New York City. Yes, makes perfect sense. I wonder if the bust has a plaque listing all his good deeds and his contributions to society ……..
— 3 armed robberies,
— 2 violent home invasions,
— 6 burglaries,
— 3 car thefts,
— Multiple illegal trespasses,
— Cocaine and alcohol addiction,
— Drug dealing (meth and fentanyl),
— Beat 4 victims senseless,
— 23 arrests,
— holding a gun to a very pregnant belly of his robbery victim,
— and lastly, passing a counterfeit $20 bill.

George Floyd was a THUG, NOT a HERO!

Where are the many statues of police to honor all the cops killed by criminals???

Who doesn’t want to live in a society where everyone is quite free, secure tolerated and fulfilled?

Well, what is described definitely isn’t that. You can be tolerated if you’re successful, that’s it. That’s nice, yes, but the default position is a kind of insecurity for everyone, with roles to stand in for personalities.

Well, yeah, to be more like South Africa is too strong statement. Maybe more like Brazil, or more like Mexico, or Argentina.

Well let’s try this method. Median earnings of whites in the US are 93,5 % of those of Asians, while the earnings of hispanics and blacks are 60 % of those of asians. Currently there are 60 % non-hispanic whites, 6,5 % asians, 13,5 % blacks and nearly 20 % hispanics.

That gives you a value of 8270. If we assume that in 2100 white non-hispanics will be 33,9 %, blacks will be 13,4 %, asians 18 %, hispanics 34,7 %, as per one recent study estimates, that assumes converging birth rates and current immigration levels, we get a value of 7856.

This is about 5 % lower, therefore it predicts 5 % lower GDP per capita due to demographic changes. Lets call it best case scenario.

Let’s try another method: innovation rates. Whites are 100, asians are 80, black is 0,0, hispanic is 0,1.

Currently we get a value of 6522.
And in 2100 we get 4833 which is 74 % of the 2020 value. lets call it worse case scenario.

Domestic innovation alone can not predict GDP growth very well due to the fact that there is globalised world and large flows of ideas and technology, thus even countries with low innovation rates reverse engineer some technology, steal some technology, or learn some open source technology and ideas developed by others, which is why you have relatively high GDP growth even in third world countries.

So lets take the middle ground between innovation and earnings, between best case scenario and worse case scenario – which is 84,5 %. So the US gdp per capita should lose 15,5 % from its potential GDP by 2100, caused by demographic changes in the country. Not a small number, but not a big either.

Thanks and noted that this is not a “call” but just an observation about new companies. I will still buy a little of the US-traded ones just to take some risk, and so I have it in the portfolio to remember to look into them later.

Russian investments in particularly are really interesting, as Russian rule of law gradually heals from the pre-Putin age, and Russia builds out her own domestic service economy.

Growth rates up to 2050

It’s hard to follow the numbers based on real GDP growth rates over 30 years. Based on the predictions you use for real GDP growth rate, currency appreciation of either 20% or 0%, and assuming double inflation in both countries every 25 years. Based on those inputs what are your numbers for nominal GDP totals of China and the US in 2050?

For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

2000-2019: around 1%
1980-1999: around 2.25%

Source: World Bank DataBank

US racial demographics

PISA scores for immigrants are hard to unpack for the purpose of figuring out the economic contributions of Latinos. Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data, making it unnecessary to get bogged down by PISA sub-scores. The income and education statistics show big gaps compared to non-Hispanic whites. And the frequently cited average IQ for Latinos in the US is 90. When Latinos become 1/3 of the country, I believe the Latino-black demographic bloc will significantly hamper the economic competitiveness of the US and lower GDP per capita.

There is an interesting point about the number of high IQ immigrants balancing out the larger number of lower IQ immigrants because the quality of the top 5% by IQ in a society is very influential in determining GDP per capita. California is an example of this. However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor. I disagree. We have at least identified in our discussion a major premise disagreement.

US overtaking China

A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

Big Floyd is a national hero.

Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

You think that having to avoid offending progressive sensibilities is bad? In most of the world you have to actively show love, in all of your aesthetics, for whatever random cr*p that is popular. It is like a bad cliche of American high school times a million.

The rest of the world does have a stronger private sphere, which allows people some freedom, but the public sphere, which, with modern technology, is more and more of life, is oppressively conformist.

Latin America has been one big “everyone wears masks outdoors” jamboree for the last year. There is absolutely no evidence that this helps, but it is almost universally conformed to.

The West thinks of the Japanese as conformist, like some people think Shia and Sunni are Muslims, so what’s the difference, but less developed societies really are very extreme in this regards.

An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared. I suppose they imagine that they would have had the whip hand, and destroy their “enemies”, but probability says not.

The ability to zoom in and zoom out of a picture, at will, without getting stuck or mesmerised, seems to be extremely rare.

For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

This is not true at all. It has been increasing steadily, and this is measured in Dollars, which have been appreciating.

https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-per-capita/table/by-year

He wrote growth has been declining. But that’s true for most of the world anyway.

What is the average annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US from 1980-1999? What is it for 2000-19?

I think that our elites chose the wrong guy to fill the shoes of a “national hero” for the country.

Although I think that the cops that apprehended this long term felon went too far in their “policing tactics”, there was no good reason to choose him as some sort of demigod to be worshiped by the masses. His enthronement was ill thought out, and he will not serve the overall public interest as a legitimate rallying symbol.

Nowhere is like that, but Japan is much more like that than most places. In most places you can only taste freedom if you’re extremely rich or homeless.

Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

However, I do think one contrast from what you said that is while there’s more conmformity in Japan(and yes, yes, there is, the economic miracle post war would be impossible without it), it is a an effort to build a pleasant conformity. Everything in society often seems to emphasize a role, so while for example, mothers are expected not to work, there’s an entire status thing with fashion and “women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

It is in many ways, pretty well designed. You don’t impose crushing conformity, you kind of harmonize it into being. Its pretty crushing, but it feels organic. That’s actually one of the great successes.

An interesting Unz specific example is this weird valorising of China as some bastion of independent thought, yet all Unz commenters, if they were Chinese, and their concerns were Chinese too, would be social pariahs, probably in jail, and Ron would have been disappeared.

China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks…kinda like Twitter(lol), than anything else. Its people who try to create rival parties that face worse punishment, but its not like the US isn’t already there with the declaration of people as “extremists” and “extremist organizations.”

Growth rates up to 2050

All banks and financial institutions give you real GDP growth rates after accounting for inflation, this is what real gdp growth means.

For reference, annual GDP (real) per capita growth for the US has kept on declining.

Yeah, it is declining in all rich countries, regardless if there is large third world immigration or not, see Japan or Taiwan. This is the diminishing returns effect in economics. The richer you get, the lower the growth rate, in general.

What are the numbers – see those from Bloomberg for example. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen

Average growth per year.

China Growth Scenario Base case
2021-2030 5.0%
2031-2040 3.7%
2041-2050 2.6%

US future growth numbers can be taken from CBO, they are 2,35 % for 2021-2030, 1,6 % for 2030-2040, 1,5 % for 2040-2050.

These are not per capita estimates but total gdp growth estimates, using widely available demographic data mostly in line with the UN population projections.

China is currently 70,4 % GDP of the US and US is 100.

Using a future value calc, this gives you China being 1,24 times bigger in MER GDP by 2050. Assuming relatively optimistic 20 % CNY appreciation that gives you 1,49 times bigger Chinese GDP by 2050.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tools/timevalueofmoney

US racial demographics

Instead, I would directly cite income and education figures for Latinos as better data

I already made calculations using earnings and innovation rates in a comment above, check them out.

You insist that the economic repercussions for the US of racial demographics falling to 50% white and Asian in 2050 will be minor.

I only spoke about economics, not about political and other issues. China i believe will be more stable than the US.

I don’t want to insist also, if you see my first wild guess was a 10 % US per capita GDP drop by 2100, later after some calcs i made i moved onto 15,5 % drop. I’m pretty open about ideas, actually i’m not a fan of the US. But i sometimes like to play devil’s advocate too.

I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world, so if there was some significant IQ and innovation drop the country should be more like Argentina or something. It should be showing in those parameters above. It shouldn’t be so innovative currently, or be so rich, or have such gdp growth rates. And it is not showing, nothing significant, therefore the economic decline caused by the present demographics changes is relatively small.

US overtaking China

A demographic collapse as drastic as losing half of the population over the next 80 years simply sounds too drastic for me to believe. I think an intervention in China would occur before reaching that point.

Well, i don’t know. The likes of Japan or Korea seems to be doing nothing, they probably prefer that overpopulation will decrease. China though faces great power competition, so it has to act. I’m just saying that the current demographic numbers out of China – 1,3 TFR with still large rural population, that will urbanise in the future, and thus TFR will drop further, a pretty bad.

I can certainly say that it is slowly dropping, just like it is dropping for any rich country out there. Population ageing and the law of diminishing returns do not allow high growth rates in rich countries.
Here the gdp growth per worker in the US is actually higher than in Japan. In per capita growth its even worse for Japan since many in that ageing country are pensioners, so when you compare such countries it is better to look at per worker gdp growth.

You got that “fact” that aborigines have 4X better vision from a fluff online news source. Here’s an Australian government source that speaks of the myriad of eye problems that abos have. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/indigenous-australians/eye-health-in-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islande/contents/summary

What disappoints me is that there are only two Big Floyd statues. I expected better.

China is much less oppressive than imagined. Unz commentators would likely be fine, much like the zhihu.com commentators are fine. China engages much more in deletion and mass blocks

Zhihu.com looks even less critical of the Chinese government than the Washington Post is of the Democratic party. Actually much less.

Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on whether the CCP conducts propaganda overseas – as in pays to get good news. That is it. If it were the US, it could be a Presidential office press release.

This is evidence of extremely oppressive censorship, that makes the US version look ephemeral.

Well, no, I think you’re underestimating the extremes here. Unless you’re extremely successful, then you have even less individuality than usual, since the basic idea is that people have roles to execute, roles that vary based on context, etc.

I still perceive Japan as so much closer to the US, than it is to Africa, India or even Latin America, and obviously the Middle East.

Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can

22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

I’m pretty certain that the economic losses for the US should not be big by 2050 seeing that even now, when the US became a pretty diverse country, it has higher rates of invention compared to almost all other countries, higher or similar GDP growth rates to other rich countries, regardless of the immigration issue or lack of it in them, and one of the highest per capita GDP in the world,

I’ve been reading with interest your discussion with Daniel Chieh regarding the world economic situation especially as regards between China and the US. I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s. I think that the greatest impediment to US hegemony will not be greatly tested until a serious threat is made to the US dollar as the world’s petrodollar and reserve currency medium. Do you or Daniel have any thoughts as to when such a play may actually be made to unseat this very advantageous situation for the US economy?

However, I do not think the California model is replicated across the US because California vacuums up so much global talent. Florida is a highly diverse state with a low GDP per capita. I think it is a better representation of where the entire US is headed in 2050.

That must take into account that California is very important for overall US GDP and innovation, much more than Florida. Then there is the broad issue of the US having an economy of scale. This is significant.

If you look at the US as a whole and not per states, the US has one of the highest rates of production of high quality science in the world per capita, beating almost all other rich countries. So the US itself, as a whole, (per capita of its total population) “vacuums up so much global talent”. Karlin made articles on it.

If aliens somehow managed to find the gold record on Voyager, then they would probably have enough evidence to theorize that we were destroyed by poz.

Why not spearhead a campaign to have one more erected in your hometown? Collections for other more frivolous causes are made everyday.

Where’s their article arguing that Covid-19 is a Chinese bioweapon purposefully released out of completely incompetent spite?

Or that the CCP is composed of a caste of people who ritually sacrifice babies and drink their blood?

Or that the current aim of the CCP is to make ‘yellow genocide”?

The most government critical thing I saw was an “open” discussion on

lol, there was actually a couple at one point which said that “Chinese people should have died, Japanese should have won WW2” and that was actually in official academia, not just zihui.

There was also the pretty entertainingly insane Auntology, which was a bit like the “yellow genocide” but its more like “keep everyone as a slave caste member.”

https://supchina.com/2019/03/13/chinas-intellectual-dark-web-and-its-most-active-fanatic/

I’m glad to read that the US economy should remain relatively unscathed until the 2050’s.

I’m not saying that. Politically the country will become more polarised and fractured. Politics may have an effect on economics. The US also has large and growing debts. The US military will be cut, it is already baked in in future budgets. The US dollar in general will be weakening in the long term both due to the debt issue and the decline in the share of the US in the global economy. The US will be a declining country (in relative decline), imo, up to 2100. I also think that China will be a declining country after 2050, so both of them will be declining.

IMO the dollar will lose its dominant place, but slowly. There should be a basket of currencies, gold and crypto replacing the dollar, with the dollar still acounting for maybe 25% -30 % of globalreserves, but it will happen slowly imo. By 2050. Not by 2030. It is right now at 59 %. The CNY is estimated to reach 10 % in global reserves by 2030. The dollar will lose its place much faster in transactions, it is happening now, as countries are looking to avoid sanctions or surveillance. It is right now at 39 %.

So i see a multipolar world in the making, not US dominated, but not China dominated either. Peak China power should be around 2050, i think it will take Taiwan by the 2040s, after that things should get really chaotic and interesting, with India reaching near US GDP at the end of the century, Africa reaching 3-4 trillion people, and muslims becoming nearly 35 % of the global population. A real multipolar world. I think that the curent system will collapse by 2050. It will be more non-white, more post european world. And it should be more dangerous too, probably the NPT regime will collapse, as more and more players emerge, and many countries will obtain nuclear weapons.

I’m talking about the brain’s ability to process the signal from the eyes. Not the eyes themselves.

Hunter gatherers tend to have better ability to process movement.

I’m not saying that.

It looks to me like you’re backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture…I’m probably nitpicking here and do appreciate your fuller reply in #147.

those UK’ies had Astra Zeneca shots, which were not mRNA.

Most “vaccinated” people in the UK had Pfizer.

Big Floyd is a national hero.

Tell me who is your national hero, and I tell you what kind of nation you are.

Edward Dutton made a video criticizing the idea of the technological singularity, and why he thinks it won’t happen.

It looks to me like you’re backpedaling a bit, or at least hedging your bets. A plain reading of the quotation of yours in my comment #142 seems to paint a somewhat rosier picture

Well, that was a discussion about the effect of immigration on the US economics alone, but politics will also be affected, and this points to potential instability and division, and then if you look at long term economic studies about the US, they already point to long term relative decline of its place in the global economy, although slow. And they are not even aware of the immigration effects (or third-wordisation effects) on the US, which adds a further downside for it, especially in the long term. Although it is not a big downside (probably 15-16 % potential loss in GDP by 2100), but its there, and it adds up.

So it looks that the US relative decline for this century is baked in, but also that the US is a very resourceful country, and well connected country, with very good starting position, so it should be a slow decline. But there is political risk that is hard to predict. When there is polarisation, something small can cause big trouble. See the George Floyd saga. Or a war and use of force to try to show that the US is not in decline

These three effects that intersect each other at the same time – whites becoming a minority in the country, debt reaching all time high, with the US gradually losing influence in the world, and everybody knowing about that, point that something may happen. Either internally or externally. The tension is there, it is just looking for a spark.

That’s still nothing on Unz, it is Chinese Brett Weinstein, and those sites are either censored or they’re hosted abroad and the authorities try to ban them, from what I’ve looked up. I also notice that the one you provided before, as evidence of some dissent being allowed, is, from what I actually read, no more dissenting than the White House PR office.

I am sure that China has many weird, mad and wonderful ideological currents, but it feels like you’re telling me it is the middle of day outside, because it is not completely pitch black.

Pretty shocking to see a pre-code Capra film. Guessing even as director, he felt powerless to censor the writer.

Seems to support my view that censorship is necessary.

I also see that “Auntie” is now a political refugee in the United States.

He is pretty astute on the West however, and funny.

Google translate did a good job for me:

https://freewechat.com/a/MzI4MjA3MTg2OA==/2652507882/1?rss

Hopefully that will give North America some peace, and even the greatest “swallow the peoples of the world”-types will struggle to keep up their desired level of immigrant inflows.

Then the self-improvement can begin, ha ha.

Those who know, know.

Kind of a good joke, right?

People act like going from 1.4 billion to…even 800 million (not that that is going to happen) over the course of a century is some crazy catastrophe. Even Japan going from 120 million to 80 million (again, not going to happen, bar a nuclear war over Taiwan), is not a disaster. Still bigger than Ireland, in both cases, and either 10 Germanies or 1 Germany, respectively.

America’s population going over 400,000,000 would have been impressive in an era when they would have been more white. Now it’s just sad. Though, Hispanics are pretty okay, so we can artificially hit over 400 mil by integrating Mexico, which would probably also improve our immigration laws as Mexicans vote en masse to bar any foreigners from settling their country, including Central Americans. Lol.

Most over ’70s had Pfizer. So have most under 40s. It is about even. It would depend when the military were vaccinated.

is one of the most innovative countries in the world per capita, as well as with higher GDP growth rates than most other western countrues.

The only reason the US is “innovative per capita” than most countries is due to immigration. It does a poor job at raising local talent. As the rest of the world improves amd catches up (and Europe declines), I predict fewer people will emigrate from their countries (a reverse brain drain may even occur) and “US innovation” will greatly slow down. We are already seeing this in China, where many large Chinese tech companies are ex-Silicon Valley employees coming back to China to make their fortunes (ex Anker CEO). Currently China is undergoing a reform of its university system, I predict this will raise its Universities to a US standard (at minimum) so there will also be less motivation to go abroad, as the gov opens up more high quality universities throughout China.

Soviet music did improve when Stalin set actual (read: traditional) music standards.

Obviously, there is some balance that is needed. I bet the ideal varies for the individual and the culture.

You are making one crucial assumption that needs to be examined – that the US will remain intact as it is now. The uncentralized nature (ie each State is semi-autonomous) of the USA where each “State” is essentially its own country with a unified currency and protected by a central government, means that if the US economy declines, stops being first,’ its productivity falls, has too many people of a certain ethnicity (say Latinos) concentrated in one place – it can so happen that States begin to remember historical grievances or suddenly “discover” a new identity (like Ukraine or the provinces of the Roman Empire) that is suddenly at odds with the rest of the US and may attempt secession – especially if the power of the Feds weaken, some governors may figure it will be better for them if they where the President of their own country.

This often happens to States/Empires that begin an (even modest) economic decline. This happened to Rome, Britain and USSR. It doesnt usually happen to relatively homogenous states, but the US is not homogenous and will become less so over time. Moreover the semi-autonomous nature of its State system seems like it would lend itself well to splintering. A splintering will ruin any projections of econokic growth.

So do you think its likely the US will remain intact in its current State or splinter based on ethnic, economic or Racial lines?

You should read Weibo, people constantly complain about stuff and protests are encouraged in China and the government seems to be far more responsive.

Check out the below article for more on the matter:

https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/surprise-authoritarian-resilience-china/

Let us not forget the elephants! A war the interior Africans didn’t start winning until the introduction of guns wholesale to the Savannah. I’m not even kidding. Those guys will wreck a village of any moderate size. I like elephants, but a war is a war. Bees and thorn bushes help, though.

In time, with the advantages of many modern breakthroughs (medicinal and otherwise) and ongoing Chinese infrastructure development and investment (different than Western financial investment), as well as political stabilization (much of Africa is, in fact, not a horrible, rape-filled warzone), they’ll figure themselves out and create the moderately prosperous societies. It won’t be Germany, China, Japan, Russia, Korea or Britain, but it will be a fairly okay place to be, and especially so if one is African (biologically and culturally).

It takes time, though, and a outsiders not to interfere besides simple trade and infrastructure deals. Gadaffi was always working towards that goal. A damn shame it was, too. Europe and the world could have had a moderately stable and moderately prosperous Dark Continent, and instead they opted for “The Gayest and Darkest” Timeline.

The great shame of Xbox, and Microsoft, as my father noted (working there), is that they absolutely, positively refuse to build factories in Japan and South America, despite the fact their these people actually game, can appreciate Xbox games, and more importantly, buy nationalist. Meaning, one must first produce there to sell there, but this ensures a chance at the market. Alas, Microsoft leadership is as short sighted as many American mega-corporations.

The more extreme zihui comments I recall were in the comments, including arguments that the Party was keeping everyone as leeks and therefore basically failing in their mission, etc. Its not that rare.

Auntology is quite a bit more extreme than Weinstein or any “Dark Web” intellectual despite the name of the article: it advocates the breakup of the nation, which would fall into extremism in the US as well, which now is being actively sought for to suppressing, including even less far-out movements.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states

In fact, I’m not even sure Unz could safely host such discussion at the moment to be honest.

Dictators in Africa have a eight wives and forty children. How are they going to tell people to stop having bunches of kids?

22% of doctors in Japan are women, and rising fast. This is what it was in the US back in the final year of the Clinton administration. Hardly “impossible” for women. Or even negative at all.

Numbers are deceptive, women are mostly in part-time labor.

And the grade-editing is reasonably well known.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/tokyo-medical-school-admits-changing-results-to-exclude-women

Given the same clique system I mentioned before and the importance of informal “shadowy” organizations, it serves as effective barriers while not actually appearing as such. Like I mentioned before, I actually think this is somehow rather admirable because it comes off as fairly smooth and nonconfrontational(though its innately hypocritical, much like how crime is effective zero, but mobsters like yazuka are legal, so their crime is intentionally overlooked).

Those people that want student debt cancelled have absolutely no clue. That stuff is gold.

women who do lunch” which emphasizes how pleasant it is. Women can’t make it into doctors, often because their grades are sabotaged, but that’s basically fine because if they can’t think they can, and then no one else tells them they can, then they’re pretty happy about it. And yes, then there are the exceptional cases I mentioned.

This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce. The solution for China and Japan to reverse their poor fertility rates is to make it seem that having many children is a very pleasant and socially desirable thing for women. If combined with good social/financial planning, I predict demographic trends to reverse in a generation (with good enough propaganda and strict censorship).

He’s in the US, along with this extremely moderate and loyal dissident.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-12-04/chinese-communist-party-failed

First three you’ve mentioned, plus famine-tier supply chain collapses (in the “same” way Holodomor & Great Leap Forward happened) and possibly industrial genocide.

I don’t see evidence that the numbers are deceptive, and even if so, I don’t see any problem with “part-time” work.

Not that these caveats would matter anyway as numbers are rising extremely quickly, just as the US did, but 20 years behind.

Artstyle? There is basically not much room for innovation outside of those that can be also shared by Japanese artists. But the narrative and worldviews are gold.

People trying to estimate US GDP growth rate to 2050 are missing the point.

US GDP is going to skyrocket, but innovation, technology, immigration, or even my favorite pet interest – debt, are not really going going to be the key drivers. Those things won’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

By 2050, obesity rate in the US will be well over 50%, maybe pushing 60%, and this, combined with aging population, will create a rather interesting cascade of health problems and massive cash cow for the healthcare sector.

If you think US healthcare, at 18% GDP and $4 trillion annually today, is expensive, you ain’t seen nothing yet. My base case for 2050 is 25% GDP, but I wouldn’t rule out 30-35% GDP in healthcare expenditures. The more people get sick with chronic illnesses, the higher the GDP will go. And there will be many such cases.

By 2050 US economy will be fully powered by oil. No, not shale oil. Land whale oil.

This merely supports my idea that women can be brainwashed into having more children just like they can be brainwashed into the workforce.

When you one day meet a woman, you will be wrapped as tightly around her finger as a Chinese finger trap.