《热带特朗普》获得46％的票房
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Bolsonaro’s 46% is just shy of the 50% he needed to win the Brazilian Presidency, while Workers’ Party candidate Haddad is at just 29%.
While most or all of the rest of the candidates are against Bolsonaro, I still find it difficult to see Haddad winning with these numbers. PredictIt is giving Bolsonaro almost 80% now.
What is Bolsonaro going to be like as President?
He seems to fit the “Trump of the Tropics” label perfectly. Supported by the whiter, richer Brazilians (all the expats voted for him), and supports economic freedoms, anti-China, pro-Israel.
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Putin of the tropics (at least in the Economist’s mind)?
The Economist - 'Africa's dangerous baby boom'
Never thought I'd see this.
He did do well. Would be great to read a proper analysis of this, I know Steve had a Brazilian commentator.
One of the important things that may happen with President Bolsonaro, is a real-life experiment in Latin America in the beneficial effects of making guns more available … He intends to loosen gun ownership and carry restrictions for honest citizens, in line with the USA auto-bumper-sticker motto, ‘Fight Crime – Shoot Back!’
Bolsonaro is able to point out that the 2 countries with the highest gun ownership in the Americas – Canada and USA (yes, no kidding) – are 2 of the 4 countries with the lowest murder rates in the Americas, along with Chile and Cuba.
The whole EU including still Britain, has about 5,300 murders per year, with 500 million people. With the USA’s 330-350 million population (adding illegals), there are about 17,000 murders (mostly concentrated in urban minority areas). Brasil, with approaching 200 million people, has 65,000 murders. Brasil, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico, are amongst the most murderous countries on the planet.
Africa, tho having huge rates of theft, robbery and rape – in some African countries, it is said one-third of the local women will be raped at some point – has lower official murder rate in most places outside of South Africa. Some say this is because of deceptive counting, but others point out that sub-Saharan Africans can be quite superstitious, with the idea that the ghost of someone you murder, will haunt you and bring you harm.
在美国，众所周知，平民拥有的枪支越多，就越容易隐藏，犯罪率通常也较低。对于那些努力登记并获得合法隐蔽携带许可证的人来说，暴力犯罪几乎为零。与神话相反，在一些重大案例中，枪支包装者阻止了暴力犯罪或正在进行的大规模枪击事件，但媒体掩盖了这些故事。
Bolsonaro is going to try this ‘fix’ in Brasil … after some initial blasting of bad guys, it will be interesting to see crime rates go down there, with more guns in good guy hands.
Notably, the two continents with the highest civilian gun ownership – North America and Europe – have very low crime rates (Yes for all you Yank readers who don’t know, there are maybe 75-100 million privately owned handguns, rifles, and shotguns in the EU … Europe’s capital, Brussels, has two pistol shooting clubs for your classic .45 semi-auto or other handgun)
反枪支暴徒的宣传伎俩之一，就是谈论美国在“枪支谋杀”方面处于领先地位……因为拉丁美洲的谋杀率大幅上升，往往是犯罪团伙和多名犯罪分子使用刀或棍棒杀人的结果。即使是武术专家也无力防御的攻击者
博尔索纳罗也可能是杜特尔特式的人物，他将被指控使用 RWDS（右翼敢死队），但尚未得到广泛的纵容和赞扬，就像在菲律宾一样
有趣的是，阿拉伯人在拉丁美洲社会上层的人数过多。
以色列的基督徒，其中大部分是阿拉伯人，相当繁荣。 与世俗犹太人不相上下，但仍在做 很好. So they seem to be doing well even in relatively successful societies. I believe AK has written that some 'mercurial' groups tend to do much better in business than what would be predicted by just looking at IQ. Another example would be British Indians, whose average IQ is around 99 or so but tend to outperform that on socio-economic indicators, especially education. My guess is something similar is going on here, but there is probably an IQ differential to boot in LatAm the way it isn't in the previous examples.
https://twitter.com/brazilbrian?lang=en is the best guy on Brazil. He's officially non-partisan - he wants to get some quotes in the MSM in order to increase his exposure - but it's quite clear he is very willing to contemplate why people voted for Bolsonaro without screeching like a harpy. As for shitlibs, the Guardian's brazil guy is actually quite good if you can disregard the blatant bias.说到以色列，今天刚浏览了 /r/urbanhell 和这张照片被拿走 靠近他们的中央巴士站（！）
https://i.imgur.com/P7uyjuU.jpg
Part-kikes like dmitry may be massively butthurt when his precious little Israel gets exposed, but the reality is that Tel Aviv has some really bad and shitty areas the way you don't see in the best EE cities. He's just in denial.
https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin
关于博尔索纳罗的几句话：人们应该认识到这样一个事实：他最近才转向自由市场经济，而且是半心半意的。他这样做主要是因为他知道寡头们会为此付出代价。鉴于他的言论，西方新自由主义资本将面临国际压力，他需要国内支持者。最重要的是，他是一名军人，而不是经济改革者。最近几周，他甚至在公开场合公开攻击自己的主要经济顾问，这表明他的真实本能比他的政纲更偏左，而且他在民意调查中的表现越来越有信心。
人们应该对巴西的军事独裁进行研究。 它是 非常 国家主义者，这就是他来自的环境。现在判断他的经济计划将得到多少进展还为时过早，他可能会达成一项“一揽子协议”，由他来决定社会政策，并将经济细节留给他的公司顾问。无论哪种方式，他都不会对此太热心，并且当他变得更加舒适时，他会期待他更多的公开抱怨。我不排除军方发动公开政变，然后抛弃所有芝加哥休克主义的家伙，转而支持守旧派的首选制度，即军方控制一切。
回复：@Dmitry
你是说博尔索纳罗吗？他的血统实际上是意大利人
回复：@Hyperborean
I've not paid much attention to the subject, so I don't know much about it, but here, in Brazil, it seems to be mostly (Christian?) Lebanese (in politics, Haddad, Skaf, Kassab, Maluf... Alckmin and Murad may be non-Lebanese Arabs? I dunno) and pretty much only in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. They have the well-regarded Syrian-Lebanese Hospital here, so they must be important.
There's Slim in Mexico, but he's the only non-Brazilian Latin American of Lebanese descent I can readily name (making me no better than most people. Again, I'm sorta ignorant).
回复：@Hyperborean、@Brás Cubas
很久以前，阿拉伯人就成群结队地来到拉丁美洲。据推测，目前拉丁美洲的马龙派后裔比黎巴嫩境内的还要多。卡洛斯·斯利姆就是其中之一。
我完全支持拉丁裔驱逐卡洛斯·斯利姆家族，就像我支持撒哈拉以南非洲黑人对他们的印度寄生虫少数民族进行种族清洗一样。
This guy reminds me of Argentina’s Macri. One of the very first things president Macri did upon taking power was to ban Russia Today from Argentina. Next thing you know he wants to host US military bases and is taking out $50 billion loan from the IMF (which everybody understands Argentina will never be able to repay).
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
The IMF always gets repaid, sovereign bond holders take the hit.
I don't speak Spanish, but from what I have heard, RT Español is far more leftist even than RT English. I can understand a new right-wing leader wanting to remove it from free broadcasting packages (which is not a ban), one probably doesn't need a US explanation for it.
我不想被劳工党统治，如果我是巴西人，显然我会投票给博尔索纳罗，但我同意他身上有一种明显的美国货运崇拜气息，这不太可能反弹到俄罗斯的青睐，而劳工党则有亲金砖国家的多极化关注点更符合俄罗斯的立场。尽管如此，巴西在拉丁美洲之外无关紧要，我不知道这是否应该让我们担心。如果巴西决定与美国一起驱逐俄罗斯外交官，会有什么实质性的不同？如果说有什么不同的话，那就是他的反华立场是好的，因为这使得俄罗斯关系对中国更加重要（巴西向中国出口大量矿产）
回复：@ Thorfinnsson，@ Dmitry
The fact that the Economist and FT hate Bolsonaro but loved Macri must at least mean something. Unless they've decided they love homosexuals so much that they're willing to sacrifice their economic interests for them.
拉丁美洲的右翼传统上是亲美的。拉丁美洲大多还没有发展到“身份主义”政治，所以你可以将其与冷战期间西欧的右翼进行比较。
正如 DFH 所说，博尔索纳罗并不是另一个马克里。马克里是一个非常无聊的“新自由主义者”，就国际货币基金组织的贷款而言，基什内尔家族让阿根廷陷入困境并不是马克里的错（再次哈哈）。
回复：@Felix Keverich
Not similar to Macri at all, in my view. Macri is only very slightly to the right, opening the country slightly to the market in a traditionally very close economy.. Domestically, Macri has supported gay rights, he's against gun rights. etc. He only seems right wing because Cristina Kirchner (the previous president) was so far to the left.
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
回复：@JL、@Anatoly Karlin、@DFH、@Thorfinnsson、@Andy
The IMF always gets repaid, sovereign bond holders take the hit.
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
回复：@JL、@Anatoly Karlin、@DFH、@Thorfinnsson、@Andy
I don’t speak Spanish, but from what I have heard, RT Español is far more leftist even than RT English. I can understand a new right-wing leader wanting to remove it from free broadcasting packages (which is not a ban), one probably doesn’t need a US explanation for it.
I wouldn’t want to be ruled by PT, and would obviously vote for Bolsonaro if I was Brazilian, but I agree that there’s a distinct whiff of America cargo cultism about him which is unlikely to rebound to Russia’s favor, whereas the PT has a pro-BRICS multipolarity focus that’s more in line with the Russian position. Still, Brazil being irrelevant outside Latin America, I don’t know if this should concern us. What material difference does it make if Brazil were to decide to also expel Russian diplomats alongside the US? If anything, his Sinophobic stance is good, since it makes the Russian relationship more important to China (Brazil exports a considerable amount of minerals to China)
Not much overlap between Brazilian and Russian exports to China.
巴西对中国的主要出口产品是大豆、铁矿石、牛肉和支线飞机。
俄罗斯对中国的主要出口是石油、煤炭、核反应堆和武器。
我认为那里有机会向中国出口苏霍伊超级喷气式飞机。
巴西仇华政策的主要受益者通常是澳大利亚，但澳大利亚最近对中国人也相当冷淡。
只是表明贸易关系不会产生传统认为的那么大的政治影响力。
回复：@Mitleser
I watch this when I want to learn Spanish.
RT Spanish is great if you will learn Spanish. It's one of the only Spanish television live on YouTube, and they produce vast hours of documentaries (budget must be very large).
It's more focused in policy than RT English, and is all located in Moscow, providing some jobs for (Russian) people who learn Spanish in university.
它的重点主要是支持印第安人的权利和支持拉丁美洲的印第安人，同时抗议种族主义、资本主义等。所以这是一个高水平的恶搞。
还雇了一些漂亮的女孩，有着流畅的阿根廷声音。
Fidel Castro and Che Guevara is some kind of God of them, so really just follows traditional policy for the region.
Channel manifesto something like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UB7jq58czuk
例如我在阿根廷看过的典型纪录片 -
It is just focusing first half on exploitation or discrimination against Bolivian immigrants in Argentina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEGZCD1wnS0
回复：@Dmitry
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
回复：@JL、@Anatoly Karlin、@DFH、@Thorfinnsson、@Andy
The fact that the Economist and FT hate Bolsonaro but loved Macri must at least mean something. Unless they’ve decided they love homosexuals so much that they’re willing to sacrifice their economic interests for them.
可能的是：他目前的经济纲领完全是为了作秀，他将恢复军事独裁时代通常的民族主义国家主义（这在很大程度上被工人党复制），并且他将集中精力取消对警察杀人的限制（这很可能是）导致犯罪率上升，而不是下降）。
所以，主要是民粹主义的感觉。
How exactly is Trump or this Brazilian guy pro economic freedom?
关税不是经济自由，富人减税也不是。
诚然，关税不是经济自由（感谢上帝——没有人可以为了三十块银子而将自己的国家出卖给约翰尼·外国人），但是减税到底怎么能不支持经济自由呢？
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
特朗普至少在口头上支持公平贸易，即无关税、无补贴、无非关税壁垒。如果没有其他原因，出于惯性，美国忽视/容忍了不太重要的贸易伙伴对美国出口产品征收的关税。转向零关税是美国的一个简单策略。它总是更复杂。美国有主要的支持进口的游说团体，例如沃尔玛。零头寸更容易卖出。我们的大多数贸易伙伴都强烈偏向出口。
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
回复：@JL、@Anatoly Karlin、@DFH、@Thorfinnsson、@Andy
The right in Latin America is traditionally pro-American. Latin America has mostly not progressed to “identitarian” politics yet, so you could compare it to the right in Western Europe during the Cold War.
And like DFH says, Bolsonaro isn’t another Macri. Macri is a very boring “neoliberal”, and with respect to the IMF loan it’s hardly Macri’s fault that the Kirchners ran Argentina into the ground (yet again lol).
回复：@Dmitry、@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
关税不是经济自由，富人减税也不是。
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @notanon, @anon
诚然，关税不是经济自由（感谢上帝——没有人可以为了三十块银子而将自己的国家出卖给约翰尼·外国人），但是减税到底怎么能不支持经济自由呢？
Tax cuts without government cuts mostly free the creditor class to collect an ever-larger chunk of economic output in perpetuity. (At least that's the way it has worked, other approaches have not been tried.) A more consistent policy would be to cut government spending, but even the likes of Bolsonaro are usually unwilling to do that.
Bulls-eye, that should be tattooed at graduation on all PHD's in economics.巴西将继续保持混乱：丛林就在附近，而真正的文明却很远，太热而无法集中注意力。它具有未来主义的人口结构，模糊性和色彩破坏了任何认同感。聪明阶层梦想移民，从而造成永久的不稳定。
回复：@Thorfinnsson、@Dmitry、@Dmitry
Tax cuts are good, but Trumps cuts were clearly targeted to the rich corporate class.
I find it outrageous that the income tax is larger than the corporate tax. Income tax should be abolished with a reasonable 10% corporate tax. But income tax should never be higher than some corporation.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/print-cover-full/print-covers/20161022_cuk400.jpg
Putin of the tropics (at least in the Economist's mind)?
回复：@Hyperborean
The Economist – ‘Africa’s dangerous baby boom’
Never thought I’d see this.
贾尔·博尔索纳罗 (Jair Bolsonaro) 的最佳英语新闻来源是格伦·格林沃尔德 (Glenn Greenwald)。不幸的是，格林沃尔德害怕博尔索纳罗，只是无休止地报道法西斯主义者博尔索纳罗可能会重新引入军事独裁。好消息是他还报道了博尔索纳罗所说的许多很酷的事情。
博尔索纳罗在私有化问题上似乎是真心实意的。值得注意的是，巴西国家石油公司 (Petrobras) 的股价在纽约证券交易所开盘时飙升了 12%。
博尔索纳罗似乎并不比建制派更民主，这与德国选择党的说法不同。
回复：@Thorfinnsson
美国。
英国。
俄罗斯。
中国。
日本。
意大利。
波兰。
奥地利。
匈牙利。
菲律宾。
印度。
沙特阿拉伯。
以色列。
巴西。
在全球主义共识破裂之前，还有多少个国家？
Germany and France? Just Germany?
也许 2019 年欧盟选举……
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/steve-bannons-new-mission-make-europe-trumpian/
If only Britain could really belong on that list
回复：@Tyrion 2
沙特阿拉伯支持另一种全球主义，即逊尼派伊斯兰教法的全球主义。
Israel believes in nationalism for me, but not for thee. They fully support the Jewish diaspora's anti-nationalism, in the name of combating "anti-Semitism".
Western nationalists don't have 任何 friends in the Middle East.
事实上，叙利亚和伊朗很可能 减 hostile to western nationalists than Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, because unlike those three countries, Syria and Iran are not supporting a large hostile diaspora in the West.
As for Sloppy Steve, he will probably be more of a liability than an asset to European nationalists. Orban, Salvini, the Austrian Freedom and the other serious European nationalists wisely support a non-interventionist foreign policy. Sloppy Steve will probably pressure them into accepting a neoconservative foreign policy based on regime-change wars in Syria, Yemen and Iran for the benefit of Israel and her ally Saudi Arabia.
The results would be catastrophic for the West:
1. Europe would be flooded with refugees, and the suffering in the Middle East would provide a pretext for the ongoing migrant invasion of Europe.
2. Christians would be ethnically cleansed from the region where Christianity originated.
3. Our real enemy, radical Sunni jihadists such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, would benefit.
4. 美国/俄罗斯发生灾难性冲突的风险非常高。
回复：@Tyrion 2，@German_reader
You have a weird perception of reality. From a European perspective, only Hungary and especially Italy are truly positive, because their governments actually seem to be serious about stopping the invasion of Europe.
Britain still has much higher immigration levels by pre-1997 standards and is on track to be majority non-white later this century, and Brexit won't change that one bit. Austria's Kurz has turned out to be a fraud who will go along with the globalist consensus when it matters, e.g. when it comes to punishing Hungary. And the Poles seem to care mostly about their petty grievance-mongering against Germany and Russia.
Britain, Austria and Poland are all set to sign the UN global compact for migration. So much for rejecting globalism.
As for the Philippines, Brazil etc., who cares if right-wing death squads there kill drug dealers...totally irrelevant in the big picture. Nor is there any reason to suppose that the various non-Western powers you mentioned have any interest in stopping mass immigration to Europe (some of them are probably in favour of it).
回复：@Tyrion 2、@Beckow
I don't speak Spanish, but from what I have heard, RT Español is far more leftist even than RT English. I can understand a new right-wing leader wanting to remove it from free broadcasting packages (which is not a ban), one probably doesn't need a US explanation for it.
我不想被劳工党统治，如果我是巴西人，显然我会投票给博尔索纳罗，但我同意他身上有一种明显的美国货运崇拜气息，这不太可能反弹到俄罗斯的青睐，而劳工党则有亲金砖国家的多极化关注点更符合俄罗斯的立场。尽管如此，巴西在拉丁美洲之外无关紧要，我不知道这是否应该让我们担心。如果巴西决定与美国一起驱逐俄罗斯外交官，会有什么实质性的不同？如果说有什么不同的话，那就是他的反华立场是好的，因为这使得俄罗斯关系对中国更加重要（巴西向中国出口大量矿产）
回复：@ Thorfinnsson，@ Dmitry
Not much overlap between Brazilian and Russian exports to China.
Brazil’s major exports to China are soybeans, iron ore, beef, and regional jets.
Russia’s major exports to China are oil, coal, nuclear reactors, and weapons.
I suppose there’s an opportunity there to export Sukhoi Superjets to China.
巴西仇华政策的主要受益者通常是澳大利亚，但澳大利亚最近对中国人也相当冷淡。
只是表明贸易关系不会产生传统认为的那么大的政治影响力。
Brazil is one of China's relevant oil suppliers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-03/chinese-imports-us-crude-have-totally-stopped-tariff-threats-persistChina is also the most important foreign market for Russian iron ore.
http://investinrussia.com/data/files/sectors/Metals-and-Mining-in-Russia.pdf
Soybeans are another area where Russia's share could be increased.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1037227471387742208
回复：@Thorfinnsson
英国。
俄罗斯。
中国。
日本。
意大利。
波兰。
奥地利。
匈牙利。
菲律宾。
印度。
沙特阿拉伯。
以色列。
巴西。
在全球主义共识破裂之前，还有多少个国家？
Germany and France? Just Germany?
也许 2019 年欧盟选举...
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/steve-bannons-new-mission-make-europe-trumpian/
Replies: @DFH, @John Gruskos, @German_reader
If only Britain could really belong on that list
It is conceivable that either the Conservatives or Labour might claim the banner of nationalism post-Brexit. There might even be a new party; but everything is on hold until after March.
回复：@DFH
英国。
俄罗斯。
中国。
日本。
意大利。
波兰。
奥地利。
匈牙利。
菲律宾。
印度。
沙特阿拉伯。
以色列。
巴西。
在全球主义共识破裂之前，还有多少个国家？
Germany and France? Just Germany?
也许 2019 年欧盟选举...
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/steve-bannons-new-mission-make-europe-trumpian/
Replies: @DFH, @John Gruskos, @German_reader
沙特阿拉伯支持另一种全球主义，即逊尼派伊斯兰教法的全球主义。
Israel believes in nationalism for me, but not for thee. They fully support the Jewish diaspora’s anti-nationalism, in the name of combating “anti-Semitism”.
Western nationalists don’t have 任何 friends in the Middle East.
事实上，叙利亚和伊朗很可能 减 hostile to western nationalists than Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, because unlike those three countries, Syria and Iran are not supporting a large hostile diaspora in the West.
As for Sloppy Steve, he will probably be more of a liability than an asset to European nationalists. Orban, Salvini, the Austrian Freedom and the other serious European nationalists wisely support a non-interventionist foreign policy. Sloppy Steve will probably pressure them into accepting a neoconservative foreign policy based on regime-change wars in Syria, Yemen and Iran for the benefit of Israel and her ally Saudi Arabia.
The results would be catastrophic for the West:
1. Europe would be flooded with refugees, and the suffering in the Middle East would provide a pretext for the ongoing migrant invasion of Europe.
2. Christians would be ethnically cleansed from the region where Christianity originated.
3. Our real enemy, radical Sunni jihadists such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, would benefit.
4. 美国/俄罗斯发生灾难性冲突的风险非常高。
Replies: @Mitleser, @German_reader, @John Gruskos
She's right, and I agree that Bannon is likely to push a dubious agenda which isn't in genuine European interests.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
How can the Brazilians be anti-Chinese? Their economy is dependent on the Chinese. Much of their economy is based on producing and selling commodities to the Chinese.
巴西的大多数人更喜欢美国的霸权。
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/poll-china-usa-hegemon-2018.png
回复：@DFH
Btw, just a little something I found interesting. Last week’s Sunday Telegraph had a big spread with lots of attractive maps and pictures and so one about the ‘wargames’ the British military were conducting in the Bahraini desert simulating a conflict with Russia.
One of the ways that Russia might attack the West they suggested was taking over Libya and in some way (it was not specified) causing another flood of refugees into Europe, which I found absolutely hilarious.
How hard would it be for Russia to destabilize some shithole African country enough to cause political and economic collapse?
I realize the SVR and GRU aren't what they were in Soviet times, but really how hard could it be to agitate a bunch of Africans into anarchy?
对于西方来说幸运的是，与宣传叙述相反，普京主要支持地缘政治稳定。
可笑的是，利比亚是俄罗斯和美国同时支持同一个人的少数几个地方之一。
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/libya-compromise/
造成利比亚“难民”大量涌入英国的原因是英国自己的国家机关。
包括曼彻斯特爆炸案中的“难民”。
One of the ways that Russia might attack the West they suggested was taking over Libya and in some way (it was not specified) causing another flood of refugees into Europe, which I found absolutely hilarious.
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Anatoly Karlin, @Gordo
How hard would it be for Russia to destabilize some shithole African country enough to cause political and economic collapse?
I realize the SVR and GRU aren’t what they were in Soviet times, but really how hard could it be to agitate a bunch of Africans into anarchy?
对于西方来说幸运的是，与宣传叙述相反，普京主要支持地缘政治稳定。
I don't speak Spanish, but from what I have heard, RT Español is far more leftist even than RT English. I can understand a new right-wing leader wanting to remove it from free broadcasting packages (which is not a ban), one probably doesn't need a US explanation for it.
我不想被劳工党统治，如果我是巴西人，显然我会投票给博尔索纳罗，但我同意他身上有一种明显的美国货运崇拜气息，这不太可能反弹到俄罗斯的青睐，而劳工党则有亲金砖国家的多极化关注点更符合俄罗斯的立场。尽管如此，巴西在拉丁美洲之外无关紧要，我不知道这是否应该让我们担心。如果巴西决定与美国一起驱逐俄罗斯外交官，会有什么实质性的不同？如果说有什么不同的话，那就是他的反华立场是好的，因为这使得俄罗斯关系对中国更加重要（巴西向中国出口大量矿产）
回复：@ Thorfinnsson，@ Dmitry
I watch this when I want to learn Spanish.
如果您想学习西班牙语，RT 西班牙语就很棒。它是 YouTube 上唯一直播的西班牙电视节目之一，他们制作了大量的纪录片（预算一定非常大）。
它比 RT English 更注重政策，而且都位于莫斯科，为在大学学习西班牙语的（俄罗斯）人提供一些工作。
它的重点主要是支持印第安人的权利和支持拉丁美洲的印第安人，同时抗议种族主义、资本主义等。所以这是一个高水平的恶搞。
还雇了一些漂亮的女孩，有着流畅的阿根廷声音。
Fidel Castro and Che Guevara is some kind of God of them, so really just follows traditional policy for the region.
Channel manifesto something like this
E.g. typical documentary I saw on Argentina –
It is just focusing first half on exploitation or discrimination against Bolivian immigrants in Argentina.
Instead they start about economic exploitation and persecution against present Bolivian immigrants, and then about how Argentina culture is built from immigration, and then concludes interviewing Jewish refugees from the holocaust.
沙特阿拉伯支持另一种全球主义，即逊尼派伊斯兰教法的全球主义。
Israel believes in nationalism for me, but not for thee. They fully support the Jewish diaspora's anti-nationalism, in the name of combating "anti-Semitism".
Western nationalists don't have 任何 friends in the Middle East.
事实上，叙利亚和伊朗很可能 减 hostile to western nationalists than Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, because unlike those three countries, Syria and Iran are not supporting a large hostile diaspora in the West.
As for Sloppy Steve, he will probably be more of a liability than an asset to European nationalists. Orban, Salvini, the Austrian Freedom and the other serious European nationalists wisely support a non-interventionist foreign policy. Sloppy Steve will probably pressure them into accepting a neoconservative foreign policy based on regime-change wars in Syria, Yemen and Iran for the benefit of Israel and her ally Saudi Arabia.
The results would be catastrophic for the West:
1. Europe would be flooded with refugees, and the suffering in the Middle East would provide a pretext for the ongoing migrant invasion of Europe.
2. Christians would be ethnically cleansed from the region where Christianity originated.
3. Our real enemy, radical Sunni jihadists such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, would benefit.
4. 美国/俄罗斯发生灾难性冲突的风险非常高。
回复：@Tyrion 2，@German_reader
That tendency is being reversed by the changed regime.
Nonsense. Having to defer to the globalist consensus wih a few meaningless words here and there in order to avoid endless sanctions should not be confused with support.
“The contemporary US belongs to all nations” said Ahmadinejad; while I doubt Assad was exactly crying about dumping his hardest to rule population into the heart of Europe…
班农不赞成外国干预。
Assad is not to blame for the new Syrian diaspora in Europe and Ahmadinejad is opposed by the Iranian establishment.
回复：@Tyrion 2
我相信内塔尼亚胡是西方民族主义者的朋友 after he gives a speech denouncing the ADL.
One of the ways that Russia might attack the West they suggested was taking over Libya and in some way (it was not specified) causing another flood of refugees into Europe, which I found absolutely hilarious.
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Anatoly Karlin, @Gordo
可笑的是，利比亚是俄罗斯和美国同时支持同一个人的少数几个地方之一。
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/libya-compromise/
Also the neoliberal/capitalist candidate became president in Colombia – Ivan Duque Márquez.
In general, it seems Latin American politics is moving away from the socialist model in the last two or three years.
Before this there had been for years a strong socialist wave, with Chavez, Evo Morales, Kirchner, etc.
这在拉丁美洲永无止境。
当左派掌权时，他们会大吃大喝，最终导致经济崩溃。
当右派掌权时，他们野蛮地镇压劳动，造成劳动阶级普遍的贫困。
至少现在看来，永无休止的循环似乎是通过选举而不是军事政变或社会主义革命来完成的。进步！
在皮诺切特之后，智利也许已经摆脱了这种动态，但现在下结论还为时过早。
回复：@Dmitry、@jnc
If only Britain could really belong on that list
回复：@Tyrion 2
It is conceivable that either the Conservatives or Labour might claim the banner of nationalism post-Brexit. There might even be a new party; but everything is on hold until after March.
所有潜在的保守党领导人（我将里斯-莫格排除在这一类之外）都很糟糕，甚至与实际的民族主义都不接近，工党领导人更是如此。
Can't really imagine Sajid Javid or Jeremy Hunt doing much to challenge the international order or promote nationalism. In fact we might even get more non-white immigration, judging from the government's new immigration plans. Corbyn might in some way, but probably would be even worse for Britain for innumerable other reasons.
回复：@LondonBob
诚然，关税不是经济自由（感谢上帝——没有人可以为了三十块银子而将自己的国家出卖给约翰尼·外国人），但是减税到底怎么能不支持经济自由呢？
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
Tax cuts without government cuts mostly free the creditor class to collect an ever-larger chunk of economic output in perpetuity. (At least that’s the way it has worked, other approaches have not been tried.) A more consistent policy would be to cut government spending, but even the likes of Bolsonaro are usually unwilling to do that.
巴西将继续保持混乱：丛林就在附近，而真正的文明却很远，太热而无法集中注意力。它具有未来主义的人口结构，模糊性和色彩破坏了任何认同感。聪明阶层梦想移民，从而造成永久的不稳定。
Bulls-eye, that should be tattooed at graduation on all PHD’s in economics.
Really only an issue if the economy is capacity constrained somehow (labor, industrial capacity, commodities, or savings), in which case you run into trouble.
Hence why inflation more or less disappeared after mass immigration started and China became the world's factory.
巴西的失业率为 13.1%，因此维持巨额赤字是有利的，但实际上无法做到这一点，除非实施资本管制（博尔索纳罗可能反对这一点）。
Nearly all economists have a cosmopolitan worldview. They genuinely think the purpose of economic science (to the extent it can be called that...) is to increase 每个人的 福祉。非常非常愚蠢。
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
Brazil clearly is a paradise for its elite though, which is what the country was built for. The bourgeois lifestyle in Brazil could be not lower, but perhaps even higher (?), than the equivalent in European countries from which they descended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6_KiX7dnSw
回复：@Tyrion 2
I watch this when I want to learn Spanish.
RT Spanish is great if you will learn Spanish. It's one of the only Spanish television live on YouTube, and they produce vast hours of documentaries (budget must be very large).
It's more focused in policy than RT English, and is all located in Moscow, providing some jobs for (Russian) people who learn Spanish in university.
它的重点主要是支持印第安人的权利和支持拉丁美洲的印第安人，同时抗议种族主义、资本主义等。所以这是一个高水平的恶搞。
还雇了一些漂亮的女孩，有着流畅的阿根廷声音。
Fidel Castro and Che Guevara is some kind of God of them, so really just follows traditional policy for the region.
Channel manifesto something like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UB7jq58czuk
例如我在阿根廷看过的典型纪录片 -
It is just focusing first half on exploitation or discrimination against Bolivian immigrants in Argentina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEGZCD1wnS0
回复：@Dmitry
It’s supposed to be a documentary about tango of Argentina as DNA of Argentina.
Instead they start about economic exploitation and persecution against present Bolivian immigrants, and then about how Argentina culture is built from immigration, and then concludes interviewing Jewish refugees from the holocaust.
Tax cuts without government cuts mostly free the creditor class to collect an ever-larger chunk of economic output in perpetuity. (At least that's the way it has worked, other approaches have not been tried.) A more consistent policy would be to cut government spending, but even the likes of Bolsonaro are usually unwilling to do that.
Bulls-eye, that should be tattooed at graduation on all PHD's in economics.巴西将继续保持混乱：丛林就在附近，而真正的文明却很远，太热而无法集中注意力。它具有未来主义的人口结构，模糊性和色彩破坏了任何认同感。聪明阶层梦想移民，从而造成永久的不稳定。
回复：@Thorfinnsson、@Dmitry、@Dmitry
政府不减税的减税也会增加私营部门的净利润，而且私营部门资产的回报率高于政府债券。
Really only an issue if the economy is capacity constrained somehow (labor, industrial capacity, commodities, or savings), in which case you run into trouble.
Hence why inflation more or less disappeared after mass immigration started and China became the world’s factory.
巴西的失业率为 13.1%，因此维持巨额赤字是有利的，但实际上无法做到这一点，除非实施资本管制（博尔索纳罗可能反对这一点）。
Nearly all economists have a cosmopolitan worldview. They genuinely think the purpose of economic science (to the extent it can be called that…) is to increase 大家的 福祉。
非常非常愚蠢。
The real measure of economic freedom is shrinking the size of government so the private sector can take its place.
特朗普是支持大政府的，他的减税政策与奥巴马给民众的福利没有什么不同。
回复：@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
博尔索纳罗在私有化问题上似乎是真心实意的。值得注意的是，巴西国家石油公司 (Petrobras) 的股价在纽约证券交易所开盘时飙升了 12%。
回复：@Mitleser
Doesn’t he have a point?
博尔索纳罗似乎并不比建制派更民主，这与德国选择党的说法不同。
Yes, he has a point, but the real reason he's terrified of Bolsonaro is that Greenwald is a faggot and has a "family" (one mulatto lover, some kidnapped half-caste children, and dozens of dogs for some reason).
Which makes the entire thing highly amusing.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
Tax cuts without government cuts mostly free the creditor class to collect an ever-larger chunk of economic output in perpetuity. (At least that's the way it has worked, other approaches have not been tried.) A more consistent policy would be to cut government spending, but even the likes of Bolsonaro are usually unwilling to do that.
Bulls-eye, that should be tattooed at graduation on all PHD's in economics.巴西将继续保持混乱：丛林就在附近，而真正的文明却很远，太热而无法集中注意力。它具有未来主义的人口结构，模糊性和色彩破坏了任何认同感。聪明阶层梦想移民，从而造成永久的不稳定。
回复：@Thorfinnsson、@Dmitry、@Dmitry
Brazil clearly is a paradise for its elite though, which is what the country was built for. The bourgeois lifestyle in Brazil could be not lower, but perhaps even higher (?), than the equivalent in European countries from which they descended.
In general, it seems Latin American politics is moving away from the socialist model in the last two or three years.
Before this there had been for years a strong socialist wave, with Chavez, Evo Morales, Kirchner, etc.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
这在拉丁美洲永无止境。
当左派掌权时，他们会大吃大喝，最终导致经济崩溃。
当右派掌权时，他们野蛮地镇压劳动，造成劳动阶级普遍的贫困。
至少现在看来，永无休止的循环似乎是通过选举而不是军事政变或社会主义革命来完成的。进步！
在皮诺切特之后，智利也许已经摆脱了这种动态，但现在下结论还为时过早。
1973年，皮诺切特在智利追随社会党总统萨尔瓦多·阿连德。
Including transition to democracy, it has been a free market, capitalist friendly country for 45 years.
我来自智利，可以肯定地说，不，智利并没有摆脱你提到的动态。撇开社会方面不谈（该国主流对来自“发达国家”的全球流行时尚表示敬佩），左翼经济学在国家话语中获得了重要的立足点，极左派获得了超过25%的选票。我们的“右翼”政府基本上还是10年前的中左翼，大多无法或不愿意挑战左翼，以减缓潮流为己任。
经济“奇迹”早已不复存在，过去四年经济增长仅略高于人口增长。
另一个问题是过去五六年我们收到了大量移民，其中海地人占了很大一部分。
博尔索纳罗似乎并不比建制派更民主，这与德国选择党的说法不同。
回复：@Thorfinnsson
Yes, he has a point, but the real reason he’s terrified of Bolsonaro is that Greenwald is a faggot and has a “family” (one mulatto lover, some kidnapped half-caste children, and dozens of dogs for some reason).
Which makes the entire thing highly amusing.
这是 Glennie G 的文章：https://theintercept.com/2018/10/08/brazils-bolsonaro-led-far-right-wins-a-victory-far-more-sweeping-and-dangerous-than-anyone-预测其教训是全球性的/
回复：@Tyrion 2
Not much overlap between Brazilian and Russian exports to China.
巴西对中国的主要出口产品是大豆、铁矿石、牛肉和支线飞机。
俄罗斯对中国的主要出口是石油、煤炭、核反应堆和武器。
我认为那里有机会向中国出口苏霍伊超级喷气式飞机。
巴西仇华政策的主要受益者通常是澳大利亚，但澳大利亚最近对中国人也相当冷淡。
只是表明贸易关系不会产生传统认为的那么大的政治影响力。
回复：@Mitleser
AK is right.
巴西是中国相关石油供应国之一。
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-03/chinese-imports-us-crude-have-totally-stopped-tariff-threats-persist
China is also the most important foreign market for Russian iron ore.
http://investinrussia.com/data/files/sectors/Metals-and-Mining-in-Russia.pdf
Soybeans are another area where Russia’s share could be increased.
对巴西石油和俄罗斯铁矿石都感到有点惊讶。
How much does Russia even produce in soybeans? But I suppose acreage that can be planted with wheat can generally be planted with soybeans.
US-China trade war and perhaps the Brazilian election proving to be great news for the Russian economy then.
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Mitleser
Tax cuts without government cuts mostly free the creditor class to collect an ever-larger chunk of economic output in perpetuity. (At least that's the way it has worked, other approaches have not been tried.) A more consistent policy would be to cut government spending, but even the likes of Bolsonaro are usually unwilling to do that.
Bulls-eye, that should be tattooed at graduation on all PHD's in economics.巴西将继续保持混乱：丛林就在附近，而真正的文明却很远，太热而无法集中注意力。它具有未来主义的人口结构，模糊性和色彩破坏了任何认同感。聪明阶层梦想移民，从而造成永久的不稳定。
回复：@Thorfinnsson、@Dmitry、@Dmitry
Towns where bourgeois or middle class live, don’t look bad. Even if your younger people emigrate to America to have a better job opportunity, they would surely want to still have property in towns like this and probably often return.
I think some people have an image of Brazil as endless slums and red dust roads. They've clearly not been. A standard middle class job over there, like teacher or anything involving a degree or even just English and some computer skills, gives a standard middle class lifestyle.
回复：@ notanon，@ Dmitry
这在拉丁美洲永无止境。
当左派掌权时，他们会大吃大喝，最终导致经济崩溃。
当右派掌权时，他们野蛮地镇压劳动，造成劳动阶级普遍的贫困。
至少现在看来，永无休止的循环似乎是通过选举而不是军事政变或社会主义革命来完成的。进步！
在皮诺切特之后，智利也许已经摆脱了这种动态，但现在下结论还为时过早。
回复：@Dmitry、@jnc
1973年，皮诺切特在智利追随社会党总统萨尔瓦多·阿连德。
Including transition to democracy, it has been a free market, capitalist friendly country for 45 years.
回复：@Mitleser
巴西的大多数人更喜欢美国的霸权。
Why are Italians so anti-American? And Poles anti-China?
关税不是经济自由，富人减税也不是。
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @notanon, @anon
in the context of a massive global over supply of labor tariffs are probably the only way to ensure some semblance of economic freedom at least in some places – the current process of driving wages down to a global minimum ends in economic stagnation everywhere.
Replies: @Mitleser, @German_reader, @John Gruskos
Assad is not to blame for the new Syrian diaspora in Europe and Ahmadinejad is opposed by the Iranian establishment.
He chastised the Trump administration for “separating thousands of children from their mothers [at the U.S. border]” as “a serious issue. One cannot watch with a sound state of mind these children crying on TV. How can they commit such a crime of separating children from their mothers for the excuse of implementing some policy? This shows how evil they really are.”
回复：@ notanon，@ Hyperborean
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6_KiX7dnSw
回复：@Tyrion 2
I think some people have an image of Brazil as endless slums and red dust roads. They’ve clearly not been. A standard middle class job over there, like teacher or anything involving a degree or even just English and some computer skills, gives a standard middle class lifestyle.
as long as the walls keep out the surrounding favelas
as soon as America is visibly weak enough the favelas will be coming over those walls all over south America
I haven't been to Brazil, so my knowledge is limited.
但几周前我们谈论这个时，我在 YouTube 上观看了一些资产阶级城镇的视频 - 基本上看起来与典型的北美人没有什么不同
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swfmR6wCBvc
回复：@notanon
Assad is not to blame for the new Syrian diaspora in Europe and Ahmadinejad is opposed by the Iranian establishment.
回复：@Tyrion 2
You’re right. The governments of Western Europe, excluding Britain where Cameron maintained an emphatic “no”, hold that responsibility. Nonetheless, as I said, Assad was doubtless pleased to get rid of as much of his domestic opposition as possible; and I have no doubt he encouraged it.
谈到特朗普和美国，哈梅内伊说：“你看到你的敌人是谁，以及他们在伊朗民族和全人类面前的残酷程度。”
He chastised the Trump administration for “separating thousands of children from their mothers [at the U.S. border]” as “a serious issue. One cannot watch with a sound state of mind these children crying on TV. How can they commit such a crime of separating children from their mothers for the excuse of implementing some policy? This shows how evil they really are.”
the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian jihadist factions cos they wanted to overthrow Assad are to blame for every drop of blood spilled in Europe as a result.
回复：@Tyrion 2
http://www.timesofisrael.com/assad-says-terrorists-hiding-among-syrian-refugees/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syrian-government-calls-refugees-return-home-n888791
I think some people have an image of Brazil as endless slums and red dust roads. They've clearly not been. A standard middle class job over there, like teacher or anything involving a degree or even just English and some computer skills, gives a standard middle class lifestyle.
回复：@ notanon，@ Dmitry
as long as the walls keep out the surrounding favelas
as soon as America is visibly weak enough the favelas will be coming over those walls all over south America
哎呀忘记图片了
Typical Latin America?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnouhRYUYAEJ1Ix.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnpfXOrX4AEl-eo.jpg
回复：@notanon，@Daniel Chieh
Bolsonaro’s problem is Brazil has
1) too many people
2) too many of those are dumb
3) too many of the not dumb are corrupt
there’s no feasible way out of that really* and the transfer of capital from the West (via off-shoring) which created the illusion of “emerging markets” was only a temporary fix (cos it weakened the ex-rich countries more than it strengthened the poor ones)
(* apart from a mass eugenics program combined with a big wall to keep out the immigrants who’d flood in as things improved)
拉丁美洲的右翼传统上是亲美的。拉丁美洲大多还没有发展到“身份主义”政治，所以你可以将其与冷战期间西欧的右翼进行比较。
正如 DFH 所说，博尔索纳罗并不是另一个马克里。马克里是一个非常无聊的“新自由主义者”，就国际货币基金组织的贷款而言，基什内尔家族让阿根廷陷入困境并不是马克里的错（再次哈哈）。
回复：@Felix Keverich
Argentina was in a bad shape, but there was no currency crisis. Currency crisis developed in the third year of Macri presidency – so the way I see it, Macri owns this crisis. His plan to deal with it (borrow $50 billion from the IMF, spend it propping up the currency) strikes me as idiotic, bordering on treasonous. If this is the best that US-educated “business-savvy” right can offer, they deserve to be chased out of the country.
Macri likely knows the correct overall direction - this does not mean a miracle worker, who will have "instant results".
How many years will it actually require to reform the Argentina economy? 10 or 20 years?
In Chile, it was only 12 years after Pinochet is in power, that the economy starts growing in a stable way.
前10年，经济几乎没有净增长，并经历着繁荣和萧条的循环。
15-25年后（皮诺切特已经下台），经济进入稳定、高速增长的时代（1990-2000年，人均年增长率4.7%）。
回复：@Felix Keverich
politicians like Macri are corrupt puppets - they're paid by the banking mafia to run up huge national debts so when it goes wrong the banking mafia can swoop in and take all the country's assets.
the banks are an organised crime syndicate with the IMF as their leg breakers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeK9e07Y65o
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/08/argentina-loan-imf-protests-peso
新兴市场（淹没式嘿）已经被 King Dollar 压垮一年半了。阿根廷的情况更糟，因为它的状况本来就很糟糕。
The IMF loan has a variable rate of 1.96% to 4.96% to be repaid in eight quarterly installments--but there's also a three year grace period. The condition attached is Argentina adjust its fiscal balance from -2.2% to +0.5% by 2021, which is the sort of thing you want to do when your currency is under pressure and you have inflation anyway.
因此，我们讨论的是八个季度付款，每个季度付款 6.5 亿美元，而且不会很快开始。与大家所说的相反，阿根廷实际上可以偿还这笔钱（前提是他们不选举“玻利瓦尔”政府）。
Argentina's current account is roughly in balance, but Macri's austerity measures should produce a surplus which means servicing the loan will be doable. Of course much depends on commodity markets.
So really, the loan is not a bad deal at all. People see "IMF" and automatically freak out. I'm in favor of abolishing the IMF, but an IMF loan is not always a bad deal for the receiving country.
That doesn't mean I favor Macri--he's an unimaginative stooge. Argentina should obviously impose capital controls as well as domestic credit controls, and its reason for not doing so is simply that Macri is blockhead who thinks government intervention is always bad.
Things like banning RT are gay and silly, but if you're in Latin America then Uncle Sam can do more for you than the Russian Bear. So perhaps not a bad idea--provided you get something for it other than a pat on the head for being a good boy.
I think some people have an image of Brazil as endless slums and red dust roads. They've clearly not been. A standard middle class job over there, like teacher or anything involving a degree or even just English and some computer skills, gives a standard middle class lifestyle.
回复：@ notanon，@ Dmitry
I haven’t been to Brazil, so my knowledge is limited.
But we when were talking about this a few weeks ago, I was watching some videos of bourgeois towns on YouTube – basically looks no different than typical North Americans
绿色区域是白人占多数（很多德国人iirc），橙色是白人占少数
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg/300px-Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg.png
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Dmitry
He chastised the Trump administration for “separating thousands of children from their mothers [at the U.S. border]” as “a serious issue. One cannot watch with a sound state of mind these children crying on TV. How can they commit such a crime of separating children from their mothers for the excuse of implementing some policy? This shows how evil they really are.”
回复：@ notanon，@ Hyperborean
the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian jihadist factions cos they wanted to overthrow Assad are to blame for every drop of blood spilled in Europe as a result.
这是你总是用来分配道德责任的推理思路吗？
If a black guy kicks your head in while shouting how he hates "whitey" would you lay the blame with the Unionist North for possibly provoking the KKK who may or may not have oppressed his ancestors sometime ago?
To which humans do you assign moral agency and to which do you not?
Replies: @notanon, @Pericles, @Anonymous
回复：@Polish Perspective、@Andy、@gabriel alberton
以色列的基督徒，其中大部分是阿拉伯人，相当繁荣。 与世俗犹太人不相上下，但仍在做 很好. 因此，即使在相对成功的社会中，他们似乎也做得很好。 我相信 AK 已经写道，一些“善变”的群体在商业上的表现往往比仅看智商所预测的要好得多。 另一个例子是英属印度人，他们的平均智商约为 99 左右，但在社会经济指标，尤其是教育方面的表现往往优于后者。 我的猜测是这里发生了类似的事情，但在拉丁美洲可能存在 IQ 差异，这与前面的示例不同。
说到以色列，今天刚浏览了 /r/urbanhell 和这张照片被拿走 靠近他们的中央巴士站（！）
当他宝贵的小以色列被曝光时，像 dmitry 这样的部分 kikes 可能会大受打击，但现实是，特拉维夫有一些非常糟糕和肮脏的地区，你在最好的 EE 城市中看不到。 他只是在否认。
https://twitter.com/brazilbrian?lang=en 是巴西最好的人。 他是正式的无党派人士——他想在 MSM 中获得一些引述以增加他的曝光率——但很明显，他非常愿意思考为什么人们投票支持博尔索纳罗而不会像鹰身人一样尖叫。 至于 shitlibs，如果你可以无视公然的偏见，卫报的巴西人实际上相当不错。
来自 tomphillipsin 的推文
关于博尔索纳罗的几句话：人们应该认识到，他对自由市场经济的转变是最近才出现的，而且是半心半意的。 他这样做主要是因为他知道寡头们会为此付出代价。 鉴于他的言论，西方新自由主义首都将面临国际压力，他需要国内支持者。 最重要的是，他是一名军人，而不是经济改革者。 最近几周，他甚至在公开场合公开反对自己的主要经济顾问，这表明他的真实直觉远比他的平台更偏左——而且他越来越有信心在民意调查中发表言论。
人们应该对巴西的军事独裁进行研究。 它是 非常 国家主义者，这就是他所处的环境。 现在说他的经济计划有多少会得到推进还为时过早，他可能会做一个“一揽子交易”，在那里他可以决定社会政策，并将经济细节留给他的公司临时顾问。 无论哪种方式，他都不会对此过于热情，并期望随着他变得更舒服，他会更多地公开抱怨。 我不排除军方公然发动政变，然后抛弃所有芝加哥休克学说的人，转而支持军队控制一切的老卫兵首选系统。
PolishPerspective - 这只是一种奇怪的行为，当你发明了一个想象中的以色列假期，带有狂野而奇异的幻想故事（灵感来自你正在阅读的一本书）。
你被发现编造虚构故事或在网上撒谎——没什么大不了的。 孩子的想象力丰富是正常的。
至少现在承认，你的知识来自像 reddit 这样的地方。 如果你还记得真正的话题，我们开始讨论以色列，因为我发布的正是这些建筑和城市衰败的照片。
http://www.solidarity-us.org/files/favela.jpg
回复：@Mitleser
Typical Latin America?
yes for now - if America looks like it's crumbling and no longer able (or at least willing) to intervene militarily to protect the blancos i think there'll be an uprising
是的。
I haven't been to Brazil, so my knowledge is limited.
但几周前我们谈论这个时，我在 YouTube 上观看了一些资产阶级城镇的视频 - 基本上看起来与典型的北美人没有什么不同
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swfmR6wCBvc
回复：@notanon
绿色区域是白人占多数（很多德国人iirc），橙色是白人占少数
是时候分裂国家了吗？
https://i.imgur.com/4u29XOy.png
我的理论是，巴西是拉丁美洲的俄罗斯。
Sao Paulo, I guess, is economic equivalent of central economic area.
里约热内卢将是他们的圣彼得堡。
Amazon rainforest is like Russian Far East and Siberia. And native Indians of Brazilian Amazon region, are mapping onto Yakuts, Buryats, etc.
My question- what would be the Brazilian equivalent of the North Caucasus?
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@notanon
Typical Latin America?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnouhRYUYAEJ1Ix.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnpfXOrX4AEl-eo.jpg
回复：@notanon，@Daniel Chieh
yes for now – if America looks like it’s crumbling and no longer able (or at least willing) to intervene militarily to protect the blancos i think there’ll be an uprising
回复：@Dmitry、@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
Macri likely knows the correct overall direction – this does not mean a miracle worker, who will have “instant results”.
How many years will it actually require to reform the Argentina economy? 10 or 20 years?
In Chile, it was only 12 years after Pinochet is in power, that the economy starts growing in a stable way.
前10年，经济几乎没有净增长，并经历着繁荣和萧条的循环。
15-25年后（皮诺切特已经下台），经济进入稳定、高速增长的时代（1990-2000年，人均年增长率4.7%）。
Dude has been in power for 3 years. Recession and hyperinflation - these are his "results", he owns it. Macri will likely be gone in 2019, replaced by a left-winger, who will default to the IMF. It's the circle of life in South America. What makes Brazilian guy any different?
回复：@Dmitry
以色列的基督徒，其中大部分是阿拉伯人，相当繁荣。 与世俗犹太人不相上下，但仍在做 很好. So they seem to be doing well even in relatively successful societies. I believe AK has written that some 'mercurial' groups tend to do much better in business than what would be predicted by just looking at IQ. Another example would be British Indians, whose average IQ is around 99 or so but tend to outperform that on socio-economic indicators, especially education. My guess is something similar is going on here, but there is probably an IQ differential to boot in LatAm the way it isn't in the previous examples.
https://twitter.com/brazilbrian?lang=en is the best guy on Brazil. He's officially non-partisan - he wants to get some quotes in the MSM in order to increase his exposure - but it's quite clear he is very willing to contemplate why people voted for Bolsonaro without screeching like a harpy. As for shitlibs, the Guardian's brazil guy is actually quite good if you can disregard the blatant bias.说到以色列，今天刚浏览了 /r/urbanhell 和这张照片被拿走 靠近他们的中央巴士站（！）
https://i.imgur.com/P7uyjuU.jpg
Part-kikes like dmitry may be massively butthurt when his precious little Israel gets exposed, but the reality is that Tel Aviv has some really bad and shitty areas the way you don't see in the best EE cities. He's just in denial.
https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin
关于博尔索纳罗的几句话：人们应该认识到这样一个事实：他最近才转向自由市场经济，而且是半心半意的。他这样做主要是因为他知道寡头们会为此付出代价。鉴于他的言论，西方新自由主义资本将面临国际压力，他需要国内支持者。最重要的是，他是一名军人，而不是经济改革者。最近几周，他甚至在公开场合公开攻击自己的主要经济顾问，这表明他的真实本能比他的政纲更偏左，而且他在民意调查中的表现越来越有信心。
人们应该对巴西的军事独裁进行研究。 它是 非常 国家主义者，这就是他来自的环境。现在判断他的经济计划将得到多少进展还为时过早，他可能会达成一项“一揽子协议”，由他来决定社会政策，并将经济细节留给他的公司顾问。无论哪种方式，他都不会对此太热心，并且当他变得更加舒适时，他会期待他更多的公开抱怨。我不排除军方发动公开政变，然后抛弃所有芝加哥休克主义的家伙，转而支持守旧派的首选制度，即军方控制一切。
回复：@Dmitry
PolishPerspective – it was just weird behaviour, when you invented an imaginary holiday to Israel, with wild and bizarre fantasy stories (that were inspired by a book you were reading).
You were caught creating imaginary stories or lying online – no big deal. Strong imagination is normal in kids.
至少现在承认，你的知识来自像 reddit 这样的地方。 如果你还记得真正的话题，我们开始讨论以色列，因为我发布的正是这些建筑和城市衰败的照片。
回复：@Dmitry、@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
politicians like Macri are corrupt puppets – they’re paid by the banking mafia to run up huge national debts so when it goes wrong the banking mafia can swoop in and take all the country’s assets.
the banks are an organised crime syndicate with the IMF as their leg breakers
the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian jihadist factions cos they wanted to overthrow Assad are to blame for every drop of blood spilled in Europe as a result.
回复：@Tyrion 2
这是你总是用来分配道德责任的推理思路吗？
如果一个黑人一边踢你的头，一边大喊他多么讨厌“白人”，你会把责任归咎于北方统一党可能激怒了三K党，而三K党以前可能压迫过他的祖先，也可能没有压迫过他的祖先？
To which humans do you assign moral agency and to which do you not?
i have no problem thinking stupid people have less moral agency than intelligent people - it's effectively the same as someone releasing scorpions in your house and you blaming the scorpions.
回复：@Tyrion 2
Yes, the connection really was 这 脆弱的。
回复：@Tyrion 2
That's the wrong analogy. I would blame the leftists in media and politics who promote black violence and inhibit defense against such violence. Likewise, the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian conflict and then supported refugees into Europe would be responsible for the violence in Europe. I would fully support Europeans or European regimes identifying, targeting, and terminating those neocons in extrajudicial killings for their crimes. And I would certainly vote to acquit in any jury trial for charges of murder brought against Europeans for targeting those neocons.
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@Tyrion 2
英国。
俄罗斯。
中国。
日本。
意大利。
波兰。
奥地利。
匈牙利。
菲律宾。
印度。
沙特阿拉伯。
以色列。
巴西。
在全球主义共识破裂之前，还有多少个国家？
Germany and France? Just Germany?
也许 2019 年欧盟选举...
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/steve-bannons-new-mission-make-europe-trumpian/
Replies: @DFH, @John Gruskos, @German_reader
You have a weird perception of reality. From a European perspective, only Hungary and especially Italy are truly positive, because their governments actually seem to be serious about stopping the invasion of Europe.
Britain still has much higher immigration levels by pre-1997 standards and is on track to be majority non-white later this century, and Brexit won’t change that one bit. Austria’s Kurz has turned out to be a fraud who will go along with the globalist consensus when it matters, e.g. when it comes to punishing Hungary. And the Poles seem to care mostly about their petty grievance-mongering against Germany and Russia.
Britain, Austria and Poland are all set to sign the UN global compact for migration. So much for rejecting globalism.
As for the Philippines, Brazil etc., who cares if right-wing death squads there kill drug dealers…totally irrelevant in the big picture. Nor is there any reason to suppose that the various non-Western powers you mentioned have any interest in stopping mass immigration to Europe (some of them are probably in favour of it).
I guess I'm more focussed on how much things have improved from five years ago while you are more concerned with how far there is yet to travel.
或者也许我有一点乐观，而你有一点悲观？
我同意非西方国家的观点，当谈到欧洲时，它们是无关紧要的，或者更有可能是敌对的。但你的欧洲名单太窄了。我们应该使用的标准是一个国家目前是否充斥着移民，以及支持开放边界的一方是否仍然掌权。由此看来，波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚坚定地站在欧洲民族主义一边。拉脱维亚、罗马尼亚、立陶宛也处于不发达状态。
I think it is too early to say about Italy: lots of words, almost no action so far. And both Italy and Austria are already partially overrun by the Third World migration - so an actual proactive action would be required. There are also small positive signs in Denmark and some parts of Germany.
未来并不难预测，它的参数牢牢植根于今天的现实，数字不会随机消失。从数学上讲，英国、法国、比利时、荷兰和瑞典不太可能避免第三世界“+”的未来。或内乱和种族骚乱。德国正处于一个转折点。
The real issue in Europe is that globo-progressives can no longer win elections, but they remain fully in charge of all relevant institutions. That is a dangerous dichotomy. Historically when that happened some kind of a popular explosion usually followed. With well-fed population that has no stake in the future (they have almost no kids) that might not happen. The rest is biology.
回复：@Mitleser
Macri likely knows the correct overall direction - this does not mean a miracle worker, who will have "instant results".
How many years will it actually require to reform the Argentina economy? 10 or 20 years?
In Chile, it was only 12 years after Pinochet is in power, that the economy starts growing in a stable way.
前10年，经济几乎没有净增长，并经历着繁荣和萧条的循环。
15-25年后（皮诺切特已经下台），经济进入稳定、高速增长的时代（1990-2000年，人均年增长率4.7%）。
回复：@Felix Keverich
老兄已经执政3年了。经济衰退和恶性通货膨胀——这些是他的“结果”，他拥有它。马克里可能会在 2019 年下台，取而代之的是一名左翼人士，后者将默认支持国际货币基金组织。这是南美洲的生活圈。是什么让巴西人与众不同？
Well, Pinochet had 12 years of this, before the economy started developing. Obviously, this is an advantage of a dictator.
But Macri is still ahead in polls for 2019
.
-
Btw - I'm not expert about Latin America, but there is reportedly more continental shift against socialist governments in recent years.
On Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_wave
Replies: @Mitleser, @German_reader, @John Gruskos
The regime in Saudi-Arabia hasn’t changed at all, it’s as noxious as ever. It’s also acting ever more aggressively outside its own borders, with all its war crimes in Yemen and now the probable assassination of a dissident on Turkish soil.
You have a weird perception of reality. From a European perspective, only Hungary and especially Italy are truly positive, because their governments actually seem to be serious about stopping the invasion of Europe.
Britain still has much higher immigration levels by pre-1997 standards and is on track to be majority non-white later this century, and Brexit won't change that one bit. Austria's Kurz has turned out to be a fraud who will go along with the globalist consensus when it matters, e.g. when it comes to punishing Hungary. And the Poles seem to care mostly about their petty grievance-mongering against Germany and Russia.
Britain, Austria and Poland are all set to sign the UN global compact for migration. So much for rejecting globalism.
As for the Philippines, Brazil etc., who cares if right-wing death squads there kill drug dealers...totally irrelevant in the big picture. Nor is there any reason to suppose that the various non-Western powers you mentioned have any interest in stopping mass immigration to Europe (some of them are probably in favour of it).
回复：@Tyrion 2、@Beckow
我想我更关注事情与五年前相比有多少改善，而你更关心还有多远的路要走。
Or perhaps I’m having a small bout of optimism or you of pessimism?
Dude has been in power for 3 years. Recession and hyperinflation - these are his "results", he owns it. Macri will likely be gone in 2019, replaced by a left-winger, who will default to the IMF. It's the circle of life in South America. What makes Brazilian guy any different?
回复：@Dmitry
Well, Pinochet had 12 years of this, before the economy started developing. Obviously, this is an advantage of a dictator.
But Macri is still ahead in polls for 2019
.
–
Btw – I’m not expert about Latin America, but there is reportedly more continental shift against socialist governments in recent years.
On Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_wave
绿色区域是白人占多数（很多德国人iirc），橙色是白人占少数
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg/300px-Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg.png
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Dmitry
是时候分裂国家了吗？
这是你总是用来分配道德责任的推理思路吗？
If a black guy kicks your head in while shouting how he hates "whitey" would you lay the blame with the Unionist North for possibly provoking the KKK who may or may not have oppressed his ancestors sometime ago?
To which humans do you assign moral agency and to which do you not?
Replies: @notanon, @Pericles, @Anonymous
i have no problem thinking stupid people have less moral agency than intelligent people – it’s effectively the same as someone releasing scorpions in your house and you blaming the scorpions.
If that's how you think, why are you not on board with the whole SJW agenda?
回复：@notanon
It is conceivable that either the Conservatives or Labour might claim the banner of nationalism post-Brexit. There might even be a new party; but everything is on hold until after March.
回复：@DFH
所有潜在的保守党领导人（我将里斯-莫格排除在这一类之外）都很糟糕，甚至与实际的民族主义都不接近，工党领导人更是如此。
Can’t really imagine Sajid Javid or Jeremy Hunt doing much to challenge the international order or promote nationalism. In fact we might even get more non-white immigration, judging from the government’s new immigration plans. Corbyn might in some way, but probably would be even worse for Britain for innumerable other reasons.
Yes it is pretty grim, I struggle to think of any candidate that has any redeeming qualities, May is actually not completely terrible on immigration, which puts her ahead of the rest. The Cameron generation are just dire, a Corbyn government might be the radical change to shake things up.
回复：@Excal
巴西的大多数人更喜欢美国的霸权。
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/poll-china-usa-hegemon-2018.png
回复：@DFH
Why are Italians so anti-American? And Poles anti-China?
回复：@Dmitry、@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/08/argentina-loan-imf-protests-peso
新兴市场（淹没式嘿）已经被 King Dollar 压垮一年半了。阿根廷的情况更糟，因为它的状况本来就很糟糕。
The IMF loan has a variable rate of 1.96% to 4.96% to be repaid in eight quarterly installments–but there’s also a three year grace period. The condition attached is Argentina adjust its fiscal balance from -2.2% to +0.5% by 2021, which is the sort of thing you want to do when your currency is under pressure and you have inflation anyway.
So we’re talking eight quarterly payments of $6.5bn each which does not begin anytime soon. Contrary to what everyone is saying, Argentina can in fact repay that (provided they don’t elect a “Bolivarian” government).
阿根廷的经常账户大致平衡，但马克里的紧缩措施应该会产生盈余，这意味着偿还贷款是可行的。当然，很大程度上取决于大宗商品市场。
所以实际上，贷款根本不是一笔糟糕的交易。人们看到“国际货币基金组织”就会自然而然地惊慌失措。我赞成废除国际货币基金组织，但国际货币基金组织的贷款对于接受国来说并不总是一件坏事。
这并不意味着我喜欢马克里——他是一个缺乏想象力的傀儡。阿根廷显然应该实施资本管制和国内信贷管制，而其不这样做的原因很简单，马克里是个傻瓜，他认为政府干预总是不好的。
像禁止 RT 这样的事情是同性恋和愚蠢的，但如果你在拉丁美洲，那么山姆大叔可以为你做的事情比俄罗斯熊更多。所以也许这不是一个坏主意——只要你能得到一些东西，而不是因为做一个好孩子而受到表扬。
i have no problem thinking stupid people have less moral agency than intelligent people - it's effectively the same as someone releasing scorpions in your house and you blaming the scorpions.
回复：@Tyrion 2
如果您是这么想的，为什么您不参与整个 SJW 议程呢？
解决方案是优生学
Typical Latin America?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnouhRYUYAEJ1Ix.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnpfXOrX4AEl-eo.jpg
回复：@notanon，@Daniel Chieh
是的。
If that's how you think, why are you not on board with the whole SJW agenda?
回复：@notanon
解决方案是优生学
Yes, he has a point, but the real reason he's terrified of Bolsonaro is that Greenwald is a faggot and has a "family" (one mulatto lover, some kidnapped half-caste children, and dozens of dogs for some reason).
Which makes the entire thing highly amusing.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
Here is Glennie G’s piece: https://theintercept.com/2018/10/08/brazils-bolsonaro-led-far-right-wins-a-victory-far-more-sweeping-and-dangerous-than-anyone-predicted-its-lessons-are-global/
Bizarre moment no. 10,993,298,3764,783:
Liberal Western journalist damns "dangerous" Brazillian Presidential candidate because "he wants to chemically castrate sex offenders". Meanwhile, journalist supports chemically castrating little boys in the name of tolerance and human rights.
Brazil is one of China's relevant oil suppliers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-03/chinese-imports-us-crude-have-totally-stopped-tariff-threats-persistChina is also the most important foreign market for Russian iron ore.
http://investinrussia.com/data/files/sectors/Metals-and-Mining-in-Russia.pdf
Soybeans are another area where Russia's share could be increased.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1037227471387742208
回复：@Thorfinnsson
对巴西石油和俄罗斯铁矿石都感到有点惊讶。
How much does Russia even produce in soybeans? But I suppose acreage that can be planted with wheat can generally be planted with soybeans.
US-China trade war and perhaps the Brazilian election proving to be great news for the Russian economy then.
博尔索纳罗总统将成为中国的又一次国际挫折。
这就是为什么我认为中国在巴西过于被动。
摘自博尔索纳罗近期的日韩台之行
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjOZVOb7EaM
回复：@ Anonymous，@ Anonymous
Brazilian oil does matter.
https://twitter.com/PopescuCo/status/1050340847647043584
所有潜在的保守党领导人（我将里斯-莫格排除在这一类之外）都很糟糕，甚至与实际的民族主义都不接近，工党领导人更是如此。
Can't really imagine Sajid Javid or Jeremy Hunt doing much to challenge the international order or promote nationalism. In fact we might even get more non-white immigration, judging from the government's new immigration plans. Corbyn might in some way, but probably would be even worse for Britain for innumerable other reasons.
回复：@LondonBob
Yes it is pretty grim, I struggle to think of any candidate that has any redeeming qualities, May is actually not completely terrible on immigration, which puts her ahead of the rest. The Cameron generation are just dire, a Corbyn government might be the radical change to shake things up.
五月机器人关于移民的不太明智的想法一定是由于她的程序中存在一些缺陷。
里斯-莫格先生和鲍里斯似乎是唯一能够激发真正（奉献）热情的人。里斯-莫格先生特意拒绝接受权杖，我相信他是认真的，但也许有一天这不会被强加给他呢？
从某些角度来看，人们很容易将鲍里斯与丘吉尔进行比较，但丘吉尔是一个严肃的人，但经常表现得不严肃，而我有时认为鲍里斯是一个不严肃的人，但经常表现得很严肃。
里斯-莫格先生像谁？肯定有人。
You have a weird perception of reality. From a European perspective, only Hungary and especially Italy are truly positive, because their governments actually seem to be serious about stopping the invasion of Europe.
Britain still has much higher immigration levels by pre-1997 standards and is on track to be majority non-white later this century, and Brexit won't change that one bit. Austria's Kurz has turned out to be a fraud who will go along with the globalist consensus when it matters, e.g. when it comes to punishing Hungary. And the Poles seem to care mostly about their petty grievance-mongering against Germany and Russia.
Britain, Austria and Poland are all set to sign the UN global compact for migration. So much for rejecting globalism.
As for the Philippines, Brazil etc., who cares if right-wing death squads there kill drug dealers...totally irrelevant in the big picture. Nor is there any reason to suppose that the various non-Western powers you mentioned have any interest in stopping mass immigration to Europe (some of them are probably in favour of it).
回复：@Tyrion 2、@Beckow
I agree about non-Western countries, they are irrelevant – or more likely hostile – when it comes to Europe. But your European list is too narrow. The criteria we should use is whether a country is currently overrun by migrants and whether the pro-open borders side is still in power. Based on that Poland, Czech R, Slovakia, Croatia and Slovenia are firmly on the European nationalist side. And Latvia, Romania, Lithuania in their underdeveloped way too.
I think it is too early to say about Italy: lots of words, almost no action so far. And both Italy and Austria are already partially overrun by the Third World migration – so an actual proactive action would be required. There are also small positive signs in Denmark and some parts of Germany.
Future is not that hard to predict, its parameters are firmly rooted in today’s realities, numbers don’t randomly disappear. Britain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden are mathematically unlikely to avoid a Third World ‘Plus’ future. Or civil and ethnic unrest. Germany is at a tipping point.
The real issue in Europe is that globo-progressives can no longer win elections, but they remain fully in charge of all relevant institutions. That is a dangerous dichotomy. Historically when that happened some kind of a popular explosion usually followed. With well-fed population that has no stake in the future (they have almost no kids) that might not happen. The rest is biology.
They are declining.
回复：@Beckow
这是 Glennie G 的文章：https://theintercept.com/2018/10/08/brazils-bolsonaro-led-far-right-wins-a-victory-far-more-sweeping-and-dangerous-than-anyone-预测其教训是全球性的/
回复：@Tyrion 2
Bizarre moment no. 10,993,298,3764,783:
Liberal Western journalist damns “dangerous” Brazillian Presidential candidate because “he wants to chemically castrate sex offenders”. Meanwhile, journalist supports chemically castrating little boys in the name of tolerance and human rights.
Really only an issue if the economy is capacity constrained somehow (labor, industrial capacity, commodities, or savings), in which case you run into trouble.
Hence why inflation more or less disappeared after mass immigration started and China became the world's factory.
巴西的失业率为 13.1%，因此维持巨额赤字是有利的，但实际上无法做到这一点，除非实施资本管制（博尔索纳罗可能反对这一点）。
Nearly all economists have a cosmopolitan worldview. They genuinely think the purpose of economic science (to the extent it can be called that...) is to increase 每个人的 福祉。非常非常愚蠢。
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
All universalist ideologies are stupid and unnatural. The latter-day ‘人道主义‘ universalism with its equality and brotherhood dogmas is a symptom of infantilism that has taken over the West since WWII. When something is ‘everything’ or for ‘everyone’, it literally means that it is actually nothing. The ‘每周‘ negates the ‘一些‘ part. But they will never get it. One has to be a bit hungry to get it.
沙特阿拉伯支持另一种全球主义，即逊尼派伊斯兰教法的全球主义。
Israel believes in nationalism for me, but not for thee. They fully support the Jewish diaspora's anti-nationalism, in the name of combating "anti-Semitism".
Western nationalists don't have 任何 friends in the Middle East.
事实上，叙利亚和伊朗很可能 减 hostile to western nationalists than Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, because unlike those three countries, Syria and Iran are not supporting a large hostile diaspora in the West.
As for Sloppy Steve, he will probably be more of a liability than an asset to European nationalists. Orban, Salvini, the Austrian Freedom and the other serious European nationalists wisely support a non-interventionist foreign policy. Sloppy Steve will probably pressure them into accepting a neoconservative foreign policy based on regime-change wars in Syria, Yemen and Iran for the benefit of Israel and her ally Saudi Arabia.
The results would be catastrophic for the West:
1. Europe would be flooded with refugees, and the suffering in the Middle East would provide a pretext for the ongoing migrant invasion of Europe.
2. Christians would be ethnically cleansed from the region where Christianity originated.
3. Our real enemy, radical Sunni jihadists such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, would benefit.
4. 美国/俄罗斯发生灾难性冲突的风险非常高。
回复：@Tyrion 2，@German_reader
勒庞（萨尔维尼在场，萨尔维尼似乎也同意）已经表示，她对与班农合作不感兴趣，明年的欧洲选举是欧洲人的事。
She’s right, and I agree that Bannon is likely to push a dubious agenda which isn’t in genuine European interests.
That depends on how seriously Europeans take Bannon's "economic nationalism" argument.
See his interview on Bill Maher:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egVlN-kBjZg
The issue most of us are laser-focused on is immigration. But note how incredibly focused Bannon is on economic nationalism. He even describes the tariffs on Chinese imports (and the tax reform law) as an 经济战争.
欧洲可以从中吸取什么教训？以德国为例，美国积极试图摧毁 Nordstream 2 项目。还有法国，美国阻止了向俄罗斯出口西北风级两栖攻击舰。美国对与俄罗斯和伊朗做生意的二级制裁对欧洲商业的损害远大于美国。
欧洲的“经济民族主义”（或者可能是大陆主义？）不仅针对中国，而且还严重针对美国。它可能也会受到选民的欢迎，尤其是那些讨厌特朗普的人。甚至可能会颠覆一些厌倦了被美国欺负的建制派。
Be careful what you wish for Sloppy Steve.
回复：@Dmitry
She's right, and I agree that Bannon is likely to push a dubious agenda which isn't in genuine European interests.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
这取决于欧洲人如何认真对待班农的“经济民族主义”论点。
See his interview on Bill Maher:
The issue most of us are laser-focused on is immigration. But note how incredibly focused Bannon is on economic nationalism. He even describes the tariffs on Chinese imports (and the tax reform law) as an 经济战争.
欧洲可以从中吸取什么教训？以德国为例，美国积极试图摧毁 Nordstream 2 项目。还有法国，美国阻止了向俄罗斯出口西北风级两栖攻击舰。美国对与俄罗斯和伊朗做生意的二级制裁对欧洲商业的损害远大于美国。
“Economic nationalism” (or perhaps Continentalism?) in Europe wouldn’t just be directed against China, but also very heavily against the United States. It might prove popular with voters as well, especially those who hate Trump. Might even flip a few establishment types tired of being bullied by America.
Be careful what you wish for Sloppy Steve.
This Bannon "economic nationalism" was useful in American election, because it attracts Democrat "swing states" that voted for Obama (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania).
It could attract Democrat voters who are working in manufacturing labour in key "swing states". Tariffs and trade was the only area a politician could argue for some help for these areas (which attracts the Obama-voting demographics of these states), without going into openly socialist ideas.
But in elections such as France there are not "swing states".
In addition, there are diminishing returns - as most candidates are historically are using popularist economic ideas, arguing for increased government expenditure, etc. Marine Le Pen was trying to win working class votes, and she was more socialist in economic policy, than perhaps even Hollande.
Most votes mainstream were in the election probably becoming more to right for economic policy. Macron, although originally socialist, was becoming much more attractive for bourgeois people, and promised to reduce wealth tax and to reduce public sector.
回复：@Mitleser
关税不是经济自由，富人减税也不是。
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @notanon, @anon
特朗普至少在口头上支持公平贸易，即无关税、无补贴、无非关税壁垒。如果没有其他原因，出于惯性，美国忽视/容忍了不太重要的贸易伙伴对美国出口产品征收的关税。转向零关税是美国的一个简单策略。它总是更复杂。美国有主要的支持进口的游说团体，例如沃尔玛。零头寸更容易卖出。我们的大多数贸易伙伴都强烈偏向出口。
对巴西石油和俄罗斯铁矿石都感到有点惊讶。
How much does Russia even produce in soybeans? But I suppose acreage that can be planted with wheat can generally be planted with soybeans.
US-China trade war and perhaps the Brazilian election proving to be great news for the Russian economy then.
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Mitleser
不多。
博尔索纳罗总统将成为中国的又一次国际挫折。
这就是为什么我认为中国在巴西过于被动。
From Bolsonaro’s recent Japan-South Korea-Taiwan tour
Brazil's farmers are big supporters of Bolsonaro:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-agriculture/brazils-powerful-farm-lobby-endorses-far-right-presidential-candidate-bolsonaro-idUSKCN1MC21M
They're benefiting greatly from the US-China trade war. It seems unlikely that Bolsonaro is going to change much. China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and unlike the US, Brazil has a trade surplus with China. About a third of its overall trade surplus comes from its surplus with China.
http://fortune.com/2018/07/06/trump-us-china-trade-war-huge-gift-brazil-farmers-soybeans/
回复：@Mitleser
我认为这并不重要。
Who else will Brazil sell its commodities to?
我同意非西方国家的观点，当谈到欧洲时，它们是无关紧要的，或者更有可能是敌对的。但你的欧洲名单太窄了。我们应该使用的标准是一个国家目前是否充斥着移民，以及支持开放边界的一方是否仍然掌权。由此看来，波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、克罗地亚和斯洛文尼亚坚定地站在欧洲民族主义一边。拉脱维亚、罗马尼亚、立陶宛也处于不发达状态。
I think it is too early to say about Italy: lots of words, almost no action so far. And both Italy and Austria are already partially overrun by the Third World migration - so an actual proactive action would be required. There are also small positive signs in Denmark and some parts of Germany.
未来并不难预测，它的参数牢牢植根于今天的现实，数字不会随机消失。从数学上讲，英国、法国、比利时、荷兰和瑞典不太可能避免第三世界“+”的未来。或内乱和种族骚乱。德国正处于一个转折点。
The real issue in Europe is that globo-progressives can no longer win elections, but they remain fully in charge of all relevant institutions. That is a dangerous dichotomy. Historically when that happened some kind of a popular explosion usually followed. With well-fed population that has no stake in the future (they have almost no kids) that might not happen. The rest is biology.
回复：@Mitleser
Check the Med migrant numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ncHxOHIx4ptt4YFXgGi9TIbwd53HaR3oFbrfBm67ak4/edit#gid=0
They are declining.
Plus there are the huge numbers already there (Italy and Austria), those grow naturally with family reunifications. My point is that a short reprieve without addressing what has already happened is not that significant. It may change the pace of Third-worldization but not the eventual outcome.
这对萨尔维尼和其他人来说是一个考验：他们能否不仅稳定它，而且能够真正修复它。此时此刻，这在政治上可能太痛苦了。
That depends on how seriously Europeans take Bannon's "economic nationalism" argument.
See his interview on Bill Maher:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egVlN-kBjZg
The issue most of us are laser-focused on is immigration. But note how incredibly focused Bannon is on economic nationalism. He even describes the tariffs on Chinese imports (and the tax reform law) as an 经济战争.
欧洲可以从中吸取什么教训？以德国为例，美国积极试图摧毁 Nordstream 2 项目。还有法国，美国阻止了向俄罗斯出口西北风级两栖攻击舰。美国对与俄罗斯和伊朗做生意的二级制裁对欧洲商业的损害远大于美国。
欧洲的“经济民族主义”（或者可能是大陆主义？）不仅针对中国，而且还严重针对美国。它可能也会受到选民的欢迎，尤其是那些讨厌特朗普的人。甚至可能会颠覆一些厌倦了被美国欺负的建制派。
Be careful what you wish for Sloppy Steve.
回复：@Dmitry
This Bannon “economic nationalism” was useful in American election, because it attracts Democrat “swing states” that voted for Obama (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania).
It could attract Democrat voters who are working in manufacturing labour in key “swing states”. Tariffs and trade was the only area a politician could argue for some help for these areas (which attracts the Obama-voting demographics of these states), without going into openly socialist ideas.
但在法国这样的选举中，并不存在“摇摆州”。
此外，回报递减——因为大多数候选人历来都在使用大众主义经济思想，主张增加政府支出等。马琳·勒庞试图赢得工人阶级选票，而她在经济政策上更加社会主义，甚至比奥朗德。
Most votes mainstream were in the election probably becoming more to right for economic policy. Macron, although originally socialist, was becoming much more attractive for bourgeois people, and promised to reduce wealth tax and to reduce public sector.
Reducing wealth tax and public sector was the goal all along.
回复：@Dmitry
请注意，他支持以色列，而不是支持白人。仅仅因为《经济学人》讨厌他并不意味着他对白人有好处，就像特朗普一样，他会说一些让全球主义者烦恼的话，但最终他什么也不做，除了表现出对犹太人的完全服从并做没有什么是亲白的。
Well his policies would probably be good for white people in Brazil. Does a Brazilian politician supporting Israel really matter? It's not like Brazil is going to invade Iran.
There's a fairly strong Evangelical movement in Brazil that is supporting him. That's the main reason for his pro-Israel.
回复：@Dmitry
They are declining.
回复：@Beckow
我认为不幸的是，如果你看看长期正在发生的事情，那是一个错误的图景。如果 2018 年低于 2015 年，那就意义不大了。因为 2018 年可能会比 2010 年更大。
Plus there are the huge numbers already there (Italy and Austria), those grow naturally with family reunifications. My point is that a short reprieve without addressing what has already happened is not that significant. It may change the pace of Third-worldization but not the eventual outcome.
这对萨尔维尼和其他人来说是一个考验：他们能否不仅稳定它，而且能够真正修复它。此时此刻，这在政治上可能太痛苦了。
绿色区域是白人占多数（很多德国人iirc），橙色是白人占少数
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg/300px-Brazilian_States_by_Race_2007.svg.png
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Dmitry
我的理论是，巴西是拉丁美洲的俄罗斯。
Sao Paulo, I guess, is economic equivalent of central economic area.
里约热内卢将是他们的圣彼得堡。
Amazon rainforest is like Russian Far East and Siberia. And native Indians of Brazilian Amazon region, are mapping onto Yakuts, Buryats, etc.
My question- what would be the Brazilian equivalent of the North Caucasus?
回复：@Dmitry
This Bannon "economic nationalism" was useful in American election, because it attracts Democrat "swing states" that voted for Obama (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania).
It could attract Democrat voters who are working in manufacturing labour in key "swing states". Tariffs and trade was the only area a politician could argue for some help for these areas (which attracts the Obama-voting demographics of these states), without going into openly socialist ideas.
But in elections such as France there are not "swing states".
In addition, there are diminishing returns - as most candidates are historically are using popularist economic ideas, arguing for increased government expenditure, etc. Marine Le Pen was trying to win working class votes, and she was more socialist in economic policy, than perhaps even Hollande.
Most votes mainstream were in the election probably becoming more to right for economic policy. Macron, although originally socialist, was becoming much more attractive for bourgeois people, and promised to reduce wealth tax and to reduce public sector.
回复：@Mitleser
Macron was briefly a member of PS, but he was certainly not socialist and helped to bury PS.
Reducing wealth tax and public sector was the goal all along.
Macron does not seem to improve the situation yet, according to what I hear. It seem the situation in France is still very bad (this year, despite Macron), with "inheritance tax", even effecting foreigners who are not rich.
My parents know a friend with this situation this year. Their father bought an apartment in France and father has died in the summer, and now they have to sell their father's apartment, because they cannot afford to pay incredibly high inheritance tax to the French government without selling the apartment (this situation did not change with Macron), and applies for any foreigners stupid enough to invest in France. Something like a 1/3 of the total value of an apartment will be paid to the French government after the death (requiring selling the apartment).
回复：@Mitleser
如果他们可以投票，这是否意味着他们不再是“外籍人士”，而是移民，即公民？
I think he means Brazilian expats living in e.g. Miami.
Bolsonaro is supported by farmers, ranchers, agribusiness, miners, developers in the Amazon, etc., who make much of their money trading with China.
回复：@Anonymous
I think he means Brazilian expats living in e.g. Miami.
回复：@DFH，@Anonymous
Well his policies would probably be good for white people in Brazil. Does a Brazilian politician supporting Israel really matter? It’s not like Brazil is going to invade Iran.
回复：@DFH，@Anonymous
There’s a fairly strong Evangelical movement in Brazil that is supporting him. That’s the main reason for his pro-Israel.
American Evangelicals are supporting him for the same reason .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjey01L7JU0
There's a fairly strong Evangelical movement in Brazil that is supporting him. That's the main reason for his pro-Israel.
回复：@Dmitry
American Evangelicals are supporting him for the same reason .
博尔索纳罗总统将成为中国的又一次国际挫折。
这就是为什么我认为中国在巴西过于被动。
摘自博尔索纳罗近期的日韩台之行
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjOZVOb7EaM
回复：@ Anonymous，@ Anonymous
Brazil’s farmers are big supporters of Bolsonaro:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-agriculture/brazils-powerful-farm-lobby-endorses-far-right-presidential-candidate-bolsonaro-idUSKCN1MC21M
他们从中美贸易战中获益匪浅。博尔索纳罗似乎不太可能做出太大改变。中国是巴西最大的贸易伙伴，与美国不同，巴西对中国有贸易顺差。其贸易顺差总额的约三分之一来自对华顺差。
http://fortune.com/2018/07/06/trump-us-china-trade-war-huge-gift-brazil-farmers-soybeans/
Bolsonaro can take advantage of China's weakened position during the trade war to demand better deals.
Reducing wealth tax and public sector was the goal all along.
回复：@Dmitry
据我所知，马克龙似乎还没有改善这种情况。看来法国的情况还是很糟糕（今年，尽管马克龙），“遗产税”甚至影响到了不富裕的外国人。
My parents know a friend with this situation this year. Their father bought an apartment in France and father has died in the summer, and now they have to sell their father’s apartment, because they cannot afford to pay incredibly high inheritance tax to the French government without selling the apartment (this situation did not change with Macron), and applies for any foreigners stupid enough to invest in France. Something like a 1/3 of the total value of an apartment will be paid to the French government after the death (requiring selling the apartment).
他拥有“错误的”财富。
https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/macrons-wealth-tax-reform-a-red-light-for-frances-property-industry/Brazil's farmers are big supporters of Bolsonaro:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-election-agriculture/brazils-powerful-farm-lobby-endorses-far-right-presidential-candidate-bolsonaro-idUSKCN1MC21M
They're benefiting greatly from the US-China trade war. It seems unlikely that Bolsonaro is going to change much. China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and unlike the US, Brazil has a trade surplus with China. About a third of its overall trade surplus comes from its surplus with China.
http://fortune.com/2018/07/06/trump-us-china-trade-war-huge-gift-brazil-farmers-soybeans/
回复：@Mitleser
博尔索纳罗可以利用中国在贸易战中的弱势地位来要求更好的交易。
Macron does not seem to improve the situation yet, according to what I hear. It seem the situation in France is still very bad (this year, despite Macron), with "inheritance tax", even effecting foreigners who are not rich.
My parents know a friend with this situation this year. Their father bought an apartment in France and father has died in the summer, and now they have to sell their father's apartment, because they cannot afford to pay incredibly high inheritance tax to the French government without selling the apartment (this situation did not change with Macron), and applies for any foreigners stupid enough to invest in France. Something like a 1/3 of the total value of an apartment will be paid to the French government after the death (requiring selling the apartment).
回复：@Mitleser
He has the “wrong kind” of wealth.
https://www.globalgovernmentforum.com/macrons-wealth-tax-reform-a-red-light-for-frances-property-industry/
我的理论是，巴西是拉丁美洲的俄罗斯。
Sao Paulo, I guess, is economic equivalent of central economic area.
里约热内卢将是他们的圣彼得堡。
Amazon rainforest is like Russian Far East and Siberia. And native Indians of Brazilian Amazon region, are mapping onto Yakuts, Buryats, etc.
My question- what would be the Brazilian equivalent of the North Caucasus?
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@notanon
N******
这在拉丁美洲永无止境。
当左派掌权时，他们会大吃大喝，最终导致经济崩溃。
当右派掌权时，他们野蛮地镇压劳动，造成劳动阶级普遍的贫困。
至少现在看来，永无休止的循环似乎是通过选举而不是军事政变或社会主义革命来完成的。进步！
在皮诺切特之后，智利也许已经摆脱了这种动态，但现在下结论还为时过早。
回复：@Dmitry、@jnc
我来自智利，可以肯定地说，不，智利并没有摆脱你提到的动态。撇开社会方面不谈（该国主流对来自“发达国家”的全球流行时尚表示敬意），左翼经济学已经在国家话语中获得了重要的立足点，极左派获得了超过25%的选票。我们的“右翼”政府基本上还是10年前的中左翼，大多无法或不愿意挑战左翼，以减缓潮流为己任。
经济“奇迹”早已不复存在，过去四年经济增长仅略高于人口增长。
另一个问题是过去五六年我们收到了大量移民，其中海地人占了很大一部分。
回复：@Polish Perspective、@Andy、@gabriel alberton
你是说博尔索纳罗吗？他的血统实际上是意大利人
不，哈达德。
看看维基百科上著名的阿拉伯拉丁美洲人的政治和商业方面，你就会明白。很多重要的人。
US must be growing these politicians in a lab as part of Monroe doctrine.
回复：@JL、@Anatoly Karlin、@DFH、@Thorfinnsson、@Andy
Not similar to Macri at all, in my view. Macri is only very slightly to the right, opening the country slightly to the market in a traditionally very close economy.. Domestically, Macri has supported gay rights, he’s against gun rights. etc. He only seems right wing because Cristina Kirchner (the previous president) was so far to the left.
博尔索纳罗刚刚公开表示，民主规范和宪法将受到尊重，所以也许这只是故作姿态？
Also promises to not raise taxes and to close down or privatize 50 SOEs within the first year.
Maybe all the anti LGBT statements were just red meat for his voters?
这是你总是用来分配道德责任的推理思路吗？
If a black guy kicks your head in while shouting how he hates "whitey" would you lay the blame with the Unionist North for possibly provoking the KKK who may or may not have oppressed his ancestors sometime ago?
To which humans do you assign moral agency and to which do you not?
Replies: @notanon, @Pericles, @Anonymous
Yes, the connection really was 这 脆弱的。
Yes. The assumption that because some Westerner maybe makes a small but clumsy intervention in a POC country and therefore is a hundred percent responsible when said POC start slaughtering each other with abandon is unmoored.
你是说博尔索纳罗吗？他的血统实际上是意大利人
回复：@Hyperborean
不，哈达德。
Look at the political and business side of prominent Arab Latin Americans at Wikipedia and you’ll see. Lots of important people.
Yes, the connection really was 这 脆弱的。
回复：@Tyrion 2
Yes. The assumption that because some Westerner maybe makes a small but clumsy intervention in a POC country and therefore is a hundred percent responsible when said POC start slaughtering each other with abandon is unmoored.
He chastised the Trump administration for “separating thousands of children from their mothers [at the U.S. border]” as “a serious issue. One cannot watch with a sound state of mind these children crying on TV. How can they commit such a crime of separating children from their mothers for the excuse of implementing some policy? This shows how evil they really are.”
回复：@ notanon，@ Hyperborean
Whatever he personally thinks, Assad’s rhetoric is reasonable.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/assad-says-terrorists-hiding-among-syrian-refugees/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syrian-government-calls-refugees-return-home-n888791
诚然，关税不是经济自由（感谢上帝——没有人可以为了三十块银子而将自己的国家出卖给约翰尼·外国人），但是减税到底怎么能不支持经济自由呢？
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
Tax cuts are good, but Trumps cuts were clearly targeted to the rich corporate class.
I find it outrageous that the income tax is larger than the corporate tax. Income tax should be abolished with a reasonable 10% corporate tax. But income tax should never be higher than some corporation.
Why is it outrageous?
无论公司赚取多少利润，最终在分配给股东时都会再次征税。
回复：@Anonymous
Really only an issue if the economy is capacity constrained somehow (labor, industrial capacity, commodities, or savings), in which case you run into trouble.
Hence why inflation more or less disappeared after mass immigration started and China became the world's factory.
巴西的失业率为 13.1%，因此维持巨额赤字是有利的，但实际上无法做到这一点，除非实施资本管制（博尔索纳罗可能反对这一点）。
Nearly all economists have a cosmopolitan worldview. They genuinely think the purpose of economic science (to the extent it can be called that...) is to increase 每个人的 福祉。非常非常愚蠢。
回复：@ Beckow，@ Anonymous
The real measure of economic freedom is shrinking the size of government so the private sector can take its place.
特朗普是支持大政府的，他的减税政策与奥巴马给民众的福利没有什么不同。
回复：@Anonymous
政府可以做很多私营部门不能或不愿做的事情。
National defense is an obvious example.
So is reasonably priced healthcare for elderly people.
Most people value these things more than economic freedom, which is why libertarians never win elections.
回复：@Anonymous
博尔索纳罗总统将成为中国的又一次国际挫折。
这就是为什么我认为中国在巴西过于被动。
摘自博尔索纳罗近期的日韩台之行
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjOZVOb7EaM
回复：@ Anonymous，@ Anonymous
I don’t think it will matter much.
Who else will Brazil sell its commodities to?
我的理论是，巴西是拉丁美洲的俄罗斯。
Sao Paulo, I guess, is economic equivalent of central economic area.
里约热内卢将是他们的圣彼得堡。
Amazon rainforest is like Russian Far East and Siberia. And native Indians of Brazilian Amazon region, are mapping onto Yakuts, Buryats, etc.
My question- what would be the Brazilian equivalent of the North Caucasus?
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@notanon
我可能把它和另一个国家搞混了，但IIRC，巴西有一个省份，部落文化很浓，男人们都拿着砍刀走来走去，在一些琐碎的争论中使用它们。
Well that's the place, they have to "burn it with fire".
The real measure of economic freedom is shrinking the size of government so the private sector can take its place.
特朗普是支持大政府的，他的减税政策与奥巴马给民众的福利没有什么不同。
回复：@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
在劳动力供应受到限制的情况下，这可能是正确的，但在劳动力供应严重过剩的情况下，私营部门的接管并不会带来经济自由，而是会导致贫困和停滞
Well if you look at Bolsonaro's latest policy announcements, it looks like he will follow standard neoliberalism principles.
回复：@notanon
回复：@Anonymous
Well if you look at Bolsonaro’s latest policy announcements, it looks like he will follow standard neoliberalism principles.
是的，我以为他会的 - 任何试图摆脱银行的人都会受到银行黑手党的攻击（例如意大利）
The economy policy of a Bolsonaro administration is unpredictable. Political campaigns in Brazil have that characteristic: no one is held accountable for the promises he makes. This time it is worse, because the promises themselves, by both sides, are shifting, or contradictory, or vague, or a combination thereof. Bolsonaro promises to be tough on crime; he also wants homosexuals to stop being conspicuous. This accounts for at least 50% of his success, and is the ‘sincere’ part of his campaign, I think. Bolsonaro’s economic guru, Paulo Guedes, is an ultra-free-market, Mises Institute guy. He says if Bolsonaro does not follow his script he will walk off from his administration. Brazilian debt is 75% of the GDP, and growing too fast for comfort. It is mostly in domestic currency. Pensions take most of the State budget. The military eat a considerable fraction of that cake, and Bolsonaro is being elected with support of almost 100% of the military, whose privileges he always protected as a Congressman. Judges are also heavily privileged, and Bolsonaro is being elected with a lot of support from them, mainly because his rival, who is, along with many of his party colleagues, being investigated for corruption, is talking about curbing the judicial system’s freedom of action.
左派哈达德的经济政策同样难以预测。他是卢拉·达席尔瓦的傀儡，卢拉·达席尔瓦正在为腐败而努力。许多人拒绝投票给一个听从已定罪罪犯命令的人，无论他们认为博尔索纳罗多么令人厌恶。另一方面，同性恋者担心自己的生命安全，会投票给哈达德。尽管卢拉和博索纳罗都是恐同人士，但博索纳罗是两人中唯一将遏制同性恋权力作为政府政策的人，这似乎起到了释放其更暴力支持者恐同冲动的作用。总体而言，不宽容现象正在增加，但只有时间才能证明这是否只是激烈运动时期造成的一时之事。
Immigration is not really a campaign topic in Brazil. The country is not in such a good economic shape as to be an attractive destination for refugees and immigrants. There is a marginal problem coming from Venezuela. That country has apparently stopped vaccinating their citizens, and, as Brazil is prevented from sending doctors to Venezuela because of the less than amicable relations between the two countries, it is obliged to take in infected people. Measles, malaria, and AIDS are some of the diseases that are becoming increasingly prevalent in Brazil, and the Venezuelans bring their share of them; measles, which was eradicated, is back due to the influx of Venezuelans.
Unless you are arguing that there is a massive black budget that I do not know about, defense spending is only about 1.5 percent of GDP, which must be only about 3 percent of the budget or so, barely a rounding error. Considering the considerable bad externalities caused by male homosexuals and bis, and the DV committed by butch lesbians, one can argue keeping at least them in the closet.
回复：@Brás Cubas，@Brás Cubas
回复：@BrásCubas
左派哈达德的经济政策同样难以预测。他是卢拉·达席尔瓦的傀儡，卢拉·达席尔瓦正在为腐败而努力。许多人拒绝投票给一个听从已定罪罪犯命令的人，无论他们认为博尔索纳罗多么令人厌恶。另一方面，同性恋者担心自己的生命安全，会投票给哈达德。尽管卢拉和博尔索纳罗都是恐同人士，但博尔索纳罗是两人中唯一将遏制同性恋权力作为政府政策的人，这似乎起到了释放其更暴力支持者恐同冲动的作用。总体而言，不宽容现象正在增加，但只有时间才能证明这是否只是激烈运动时期造成的一时之事。
Immigration is not really a campaign topic in Brazil. The country is not in such a good economic shape as to be an attractive destination for refugees and immigrants. There is a marginal problem coming from Venezuela. That country has apparently stopped vaccinating their citizens, and, as Brazil is prevented from sending doctors to Venezuela because of the less than amicable relations between the two countries, it is obliged to take in infected people. Measles, malaria, and AIDS are some of the diseases that are becoming increasingly prevalent in Brazil, and the Venezuelans bring their share of them; measles, which was eradicated, is back due to the influx of Venezuelans.
回复：@Znzn，@neutral
Unless you are arguing that there is a massive black budget that I do not know about, defense spending is only about 1.5 percent of GDP, which must be only about 3 percent of the budget or so, barely a rounding error. Considering the considerable bad externalities caused by male homosexuals and bis, and the DV committed by butch lesbians, one can argue keeping at least them in the closet.
我从未提到过国防开支。你在哪里读到我写的内容？我说过养老金（虽然我应该加上一般的社会保障）占据了预算的大部分，而军人养老金在社会保障和养老金支出中占了相当大的比例。如果您阅读葡萄牙语，以下是该问题的说明：
https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/militares-respondem-por-quase-metade-do-deficit-da-previdencia-20470974
The title of the above piece says it all: "The military answer for almost half of the social security deficit"
Here is a more recent one:
https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2018/09/09/aposentadorias-de-militares-e-servidores-vao-gerar-deficit-de-r-90-bi-em-2019-quase-um-terco-do-rombo-da-previdencia.ghtml
迟来的补充和道歉：
I have reread my comment. My text was ambiguous and I apologize for that. Read my other reply for clarification.
Unless you are arguing that there is a massive black budget that I do not know about, defense spending is only about 1.5 percent of GDP, which must be only about 3 percent of the budget or so, barely a rounding error. Considering the considerable bad externalities caused by male homosexuals and bis, and the DV committed by butch lesbians, one can argue keeping at least them in the closet.
回复：@Brás Cubas，@Brás Cubas
我从未提到过国防开支。你在哪里读到我写的内容？我说过养老金（虽然我应该加上一般的社会保障）占据了预算的大部分，而军人养老金在社会保障和养老金支出中占了相当大的比例。如果您阅读葡萄牙语，以下是该问题的说明：
https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/militares-respondem-por-quase-metade-do-deficit-da-previdencia-20470974
The title of the above piece says it all: “The military answer for almost half of the social security deficit”
Here is a more recent one:
https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2018/09/09/aposentadorias-de-militares-e-servidores-vao-gerar-deficit-de-r-90-bi-em-2019-quase-um-terco-do-rombo-da-previdencia.ghtml
巴西庞大的军队有何意义？
回复：@Alden
Unless you are arguing that there is a massive black budget that I do not know about, defense spending is only about 1.5 percent of GDP, which must be only about 3 percent of the budget or so, barely a rounding error. Considering the considerable bad externalities caused by male homosexuals and bis, and the DV committed by butch lesbians, one can argue keeping at least them in the closet.
回复：@Brás Cubas，@Brás Cubas
迟来的补充和道歉：
I have reread my comment. My text was ambiguous and I apologize for that. Read my other reply for clarification.
左派哈达德的经济政策同样难以预测。他是卢拉·达席尔瓦的傀儡，卢拉·达席尔瓦正在为腐败而努力。许多人拒绝投票给一个听从已定罪罪犯命令的人，无论他们认为博尔索纳罗多么令人厌恶。另一方面，同性恋者担心自己的生命安全，会投票给哈达德。尽管卢拉和博尔索纳罗都是恐同人士，但博尔索纳罗是两人中唯一将遏制同性恋权力作为政府政策的人，这似乎起到了释放其更暴力支持者恐同冲动的作用。总体而言，不宽容现象正在增加，但只有时间才能证明这是否只是激烈运动时期造成的一时之事。
Immigration is not really a campaign topic in Brazil. The country is not in such a good economic shape as to be an attractive destination for refugees and immigrants. There is a marginal problem coming from Venezuela. That country has apparently stopped vaccinating their citizens, and, as Brazil is prevented from sending doctors to Venezuela because of the less than amicable relations between the two countries, it is obliged to take in infected people. Measles, malaria, and AIDS are some of the diseases that are becoming increasingly prevalent in Brazil, and the Venezuelans bring their share of them; measles, which was eradicated, is back due to the influx of Venezuelans.
回复：@Znzn，@neutral
What is not in doubt is that this Bolsonaro is a total shill for Israel and the international jew. I am wondering if he is some kind of Merrano.
Bolsonaro is, to all accounts, of entirely Northern European descent -- Italians from Veneto and possibly other Northern Italian regions, and Germans.
But yes, he is strongly pro-Israel and reportedly has strong ties with the Jewish community in Brazil. That didn't stop some Jews from uniting against him in online groups and such.
回复：@neutral
Similar to countries such as Egypt, Thailand, Nigeria, etc, it has less to do with defending the country from foreigners and more to do with keeping the local population in check.
对于不安分的年轻人来说，军事工作让他们受到控制
回复：@BrásCubas
众所周知，博尔索纳罗完全是北欧血统——来自威尼托和意大利北部其他地区的意大利人，还有德国人。
But yes, he is strongly pro-Israel and reportedly has strong ties with the Jewish community in Brazil. That didn’t stop some Jews from uniting against him in online groups and such.
Tax cuts are good, but Trumps cuts were clearly targeted to the rich corporate class.
I find it outrageous that the income tax is larger than the corporate tax. Income tax should be abolished with a reasonable 10% corporate tax. But income tax should never be higher than some corporation.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
Why is it outrageous?
无论公司赚取多少利润，最终在分配给股东时都会再次征税。
It's only outrageous because the personal income taxes are so high. A lot of people actually saw their income tax go up while corporate taxes were slashed.
If Trump wants to cut taxes on corporate taxes, cut income taxes first and have them below the corporate tax rate. And cut spending too.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
The real measure of economic freedom is shrinking the size of government so the private sector can take its place.
特朗普是支持大政府的，他的减税政策与奥巴马给民众的福利没有什么不同。
回复：@notanon、@Thorfinnsson
Government can do lots of things the private sector can’t or won’t.
National defense is an obvious example.
So is reasonably priced healthcare for elderly people.
Most people value these things more than economic freedom, which is why libertarians never win elections.
No one will doubt national defense. That is a straw man argument.
Healthcare should not be run by government period.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
这是你总是用来分配道德责任的推理思路吗？
If a black guy kicks your head in while shouting how he hates "whitey" would you lay the blame with the Unionist North for possibly provoking the KKK who may or may not have oppressed his ancestors sometime ago?
To which humans do you assign moral agency and to which do you not?
Replies: @notanon, @Pericles, @Anonymous
That’s the wrong analogy. I would blame the leftists in media and politics who promote black violence and inhibit defense against such violence. Likewise, the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian conflict and then supported refugees into Europe would be responsible for the violence in Europe. I would fully support Europeans or European regimes identifying, targeting, and terminating those neocons in extrajudicial killings for their crimes. And I would certainly vote to acquit in any jury trial for charges of murder brought against Europeans for targeting those neocons.
这些通讯并不安全，兄弟。
And it's entirely possible this entire website is a counterintelligence honeypot.
注意安全。
回复：@Anonymous
Do non-white ever make a choice?
That's the wrong analogy. I would blame the leftists in media and politics who promote black violence and inhibit defense against such violence. Likewise, the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian conflict and then supported refugees into Europe would be responsible for the violence in Europe. I would fully support Europeans or European regimes identifying, targeting, and terminating those neocons in extrajudicial killings for their crimes. And I would certainly vote to acquit in any jury trial for charges of murder brought against Europeans for targeting those neocons.
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@Tyrion 2
These comms aren’t secure bro.
整个网站完全有可能是一个反情报蜜罐。
注意安全。
是的，我知道。尽管我们开玩笑，但这确实是可能的。但无论如何，我说的是精神上的支持，而不是物质上的支持。如果我是陪审团成员，我可以自由地凭良心投票。
Well if you look at Bolsonaro's latest policy announcements, it looks like he will follow standard neoliberalism principles.
回复：@notanon
yes, i assumed he would – anyone who tries to break free of the banks gets their currency attacked by the banking mafia (e.g. Italy)
这些通讯并不安全，兄弟。
And it's entirely possible this entire website is a counterintelligence honeypot.
注意安全。
回复：@Anonymous
Yes, I know. Even though we joke about it, it’s certainly possible. But regardless, I’m talking about moral support, not material support. And I’m free to vote my conscience if I’m on a jury.
Why is it outrageous?
无论公司赚取多少利润，最终在分配给股东时都会再次征税。
回复：@Anonymous
这太离谱了，因为个人所得税太高了。许多人实际上看到他们的所得税增加了，而公司税却被削减了。
If Trump wants to cut taxes on corporate taxes, cut income taxes first and have them below the corporate tax rate. And cut spending too.
公司比人更具流动性。特别是因为没有多少高收入国家的个人所得税比美国低。
最好的办法可能是简单地取消企业所得税。无论如何，分配给股东的任何利润都要征税，如果需要的话，可以提高这些税收。
政府可以做很多私营部门不能或不愿做的事情。
National defense is an obvious example.
So is reasonably priced healthcare for elderly people.
Most people value these things more than economic freedom, which is why libertarians never win elections.
回复：@Anonymous
No one will doubt national defense. That is a straw man argument.
Healthcare should not be run by government period.
Why not? I personally think healthcare is for losers and consider doctors to be white-robed terrorist quacks, but people in general are losers who get sick all the time and sincerely believe healthcare is a "human right". I don't see a viable way for the market to provide this to 每个人, which as far as I can tell is what people want. This is not a hill worth dying on.
回复：@Dmitry
嗯，就是这个地方，他们必须“用火烧掉它”。
回复：@Polish Perspective、@Andy、@gabriel alberton
我没有太关注这个主题，所以我对此了解不多，但在这里，在巴西，似乎主要是（基督教？）黎巴嫩人（在政治上，哈达德，斯卡夫，卡萨布，马鲁夫......阿尔克明穆拉德可能不是黎巴嫩阿拉伯人？我不知道）而且几乎只在圣保罗和米纳斯吉拉斯州存在。他们这里有一家备受好评的叙利亚黎巴嫩医院，所以他们一定很重要。
墨西哥有斯利姆，但他是唯一一个我能轻易说出名字的黎巴嫩裔非巴西拉丁美洲人（这让我并不比大多数人更好。再说一遍，我有点无知）。
An incomplete list of dead or alive prominent people:
阿根廷：
Jorge Antonio (Syrian) - Oligarch, important advisor during the first Perón presidency.
Alfredo Avelín (Lebanese) - Former politician, govenor of San Juan
Juliana Awada (Syrian and Lebanese) - First Lady, wife of current President Macri
巴西利奥·拉米·多佐（Basilio Lami Dozo）（叙利亚和黎巴嫩） - 准将，军事独裁时期的重要人物
Daniel Hadad (Syrian) - Media businessman
Carlos Menem (Syrian) - Former President
Zulema Yoma (country not specified, probably Levantine) - First Lady, former wife of Carlos Menem
Eduardo Menem - politician, brother of Carlos Menem
拉蒙·萨阿迪 (Ramón Saadi)（叙利亚）- 政治家，卡塔马卡前州长，维森特·萨阿迪之子，曾担任相同职位
Elías Sapag (Lebanese) - Politician, governor of Neuquén, founder of political dynasty
穆罕默德·塞内丁 - 陆军上校，参与了两次失败的军事政变，尽管他的名字是虔诚的天主教阿根廷民族主义者
墨西哥：
何塞·安东尼奥·米德·库里布雷尼亚（José Antonio Meade Kuribreña）（黎巴嫩人和英国人）——经济学家、律师和外交官，现任墨西哥外交部秘书处
Pedro Joaquín Coldwell（黎巴嫩语和英语）-
PRI politician
Emilio Chuayffet (Lebanese) - lawyer and politician, the incumbent Secretary of Public Education of Mexico
José Murat Casab (Iraqi) - former Governor of Oaxaca
Alfredo Harp Helú (Lebanese) - Oligarch
Isaac Saba Raffoul (Syrian) - Oligarch
Kamel Nacif Borge (Lebanese) - Oligarch
赫苏斯·穆里略·卡拉姆（Jesús Murillo Karam）（黎巴嫩）- 伊达尔戈州前州长
Omar Fayad (Lebanese) - Current governor of Hidalgo
阿图罗·埃利亚斯·阿尤布（Arturo Elias Ayub）（黎巴嫩）——电信寡头
The other Latin American countries are pretty similar, except perhaps with a few more Arab Presidents and Vice Presidents.
https://www.thenation.com/article/arabs-latin-america/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/05/16/the-enduring-success-of-latin-american-politicians-of-arab-origin/
The Alckmin family has no Arab connections. Yes, the word itself is derived from the Arabic, but the Portuguese-descended persons who adopted it as a surname took it from the name of an estate they owned in Portugal. One of them, a politician, encouraged people's confusion and sort of passed off as Arab, apparently because it gave him a certain aura of shrewdness. Read the whole story (in Portuguese) here:
http://www.asbrap.org.br/documentos/revistas/rev11_art11.pdf
I've not paid much attention to the subject, so I don't know much about it, but here, in Brazil, it seems to be mostly (Christian?) Lebanese (in politics, Haddad, Skaf, Kassab, Maluf... Alckmin and Murad may be non-Lebanese Arabs? I dunno) and pretty much only in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. They have the well-regarded Syrian-Lebanese Hospital here, so they must be important.
There's Slim in Mexico, but he's the only non-Brazilian Latin American of Lebanese descent I can readily name (making me no better than most people. Again, I'm sorta ignorant).
回复：@Hyperborean、@Brás Cubas
I’m not just thinking of Lebanese but Arabs in general.
An incomplete list of dead or alive prominent people:
阿根廷：
Jorge Antonio (Syrian) – Oligarch, important advisor during the first Perón presidency.
Alfredo Avelín（黎巴嫩）——前政治家、圣胡安省长
Juliana Awada (Syrian and Lebanese) – First Lady, wife of current President Macri
Basilio Lami Dozo (Syrian and Lebanese) – Brigadier General, important figure in during the period of military dictatorship
Daniel Hadad（叙利亚）——媒体商人
Carlos Menem (Syrian) – Former President
祖莱玛·尤玛（Zulema Yoma）（未指定国家，可能是黎凡特）——第一夫人，卡洛斯·梅内姆的前妻
Eduardo Menem – politician, brother of Carlos Menem
拉蒙·萨阿迪 (Ramón Saadi)（叙利亚） – 政治家，卡塔马卡前州长，维森特·萨阿迪之子，曾担任相同职位
Elías Sapag (Lebanese) – Politician, governor of Neuquén, founder of political dynasty
Mohamed Seineldín – army colonel, participated in two failed military coups, despite his name he was apparently a faithful Catholic Argentinian nationalist
墨西哥：
José Antonio Meade Kuribreña (Lebanese and British) – economist, lawyer and diplomat and current Mexican Secretariat of Foreign Affairs
Pedro Joaquín Coldwell (Lebanese and English) –
PRI politician
Emilio Chuayffet (Lebanese) – lawyer and politician, the incumbent Secretary of Public Education of Mexico
何塞·穆拉特·卡萨布（José Murat Casab）（伊拉克）——瓦哈卡州前州长
Alfredo Harp Helú (Lebanese) – Oligarch
Isaac Saba Raffoul (Syrian) – Oligarch
Kamel Nacif Borge (Lebanese) – Oligarch
Jesús Murillo Karam (Lebanese) – Former governor of Hidalgo
奥马尔·法耶德（Omar Fayad）（黎巴嫩人）——现任伊达尔戈州州长
Arturo Elías Ayub (Lebanese) – Telecom oligarch
The other Latin American countries are pretty similar, except perhaps with a few more Arab Presidents and Vice Presidents.
https://www.thenation.com/article/arabs-latin-america/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/05/16/the-enduring-success-of-latin-american-politicians-of-arab-origin/
“Federico Finchelstein”的反博尔索纳罗文章
This is what I would come up with you asked me to invent a caricatured Brazilian-Jewish name.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/05/bolsonaros-model-its-goebbels-fascism-nazism-brazil-latin-america-populism-argentina-venezuela/
We have the actual Gilberto Dimenstein, who (while I'm really not a fan) seems to be more moderate in his opposition. Not sure Jews here are actually fine with Haddad, though as commenter Brás Cubas pointed out, at least some of our Jewry published a manifesto against Bolsonaro. Some of it may be legitimate, and some of it may be them thinking it's still 1933.
It's only outrageous because the personal income taxes are so high. A lot of people actually saw their income tax go up while corporate taxes were slashed.
If Trump wants to cut taxes on corporate taxes, cut income taxes first and have them below the corporate tax rate. And cut spending too.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
公司比人更具流动性。特别是因为没有多少高收入国家的个人所得税比美国低。
最好的办法可能是简单地取消企业所得税。无论如何，分配给股东的任何利润都要征税，如果需要的话，可以提高这些税收。
No one will doubt national defense. That is a straw man argument.
Healthcare should not be run by government period.
回复：@Thorfinnsson
Why not? I personally think healthcare is for losers and consider doctors to be white-robed terrorist quacks, but people in general are losers who get sick all the time and sincerely believe healthcare is a “human right”. I don’t see a viable way for the market to provide this to 每个人, which as far as I can tell is what people want. This is not a hill worth dying on.
重申我的主题，即博尔索的本能并不像他的支持者想象的那样自由市场，布隆伯格邀请了巴西最好的分析师之一莫妮卡·德博尔作为嘉宾在他们最新的播客中讨论这个问题：
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-10-08/surveillance-nordhaus-a-great-teacher-buiter-says-podcast
该部分位于 00:14:14，涵盖了他的背景和经济偏好。 如果博尔索在政治上足够强大，并有足够的军队支持，他使用自由市场经济来安抚国内寡头的需求就会消失。
巴西的债权人似乎很确定博尔索纳罗对他们有好处
回复：@Polish Perspective
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-10-08/surveillance-nordhaus-a-great-teacher-buiter-says-podcast
该部分位于 00:14:14，涵盖了他的背景和经济偏好。 如果博尔索在政治上足够强大，并有足够的军队支持，他使用自由市场经济来安抚国内寡头的需求就会消失。
回复：@DFH
巴西债权人似乎非常确定博尔索纳罗会对他们有利
That wouldn't be irrational. Everything I've said is 有条件 在他的政治支持下。
Brian Winter, an American in Brazil who I regard as the foremost English-speaking expert on the country - and unlike most tries hard to be nonpartisan - has just put out a 大文章 在他的期望中。 在他的文章中，他讨论了经济学主题。
He basically concedes my point: Bolso's 25 year record was consistently statist in nature. His recent "conversion" is totally without conviction. But he lays out a convincing argument why that may not matter: Bolso is not a free market guy, but he isn't that interested in economics anyway. His main plank is law and order and social issues. So he is willing to 'give away' economics because it gives him ample political protection to pursue the stuff he's really interested in, and which he knows will face scrutiny and exact a political cost.
The neoliberal economics shields him not only from the wrath of the domestic oligarchs that got Lula in jail, but also from Washington. It's why Yeltsin was so loved - apart from the convenient fact that he ruined a former Great Power - by the Washington establishment. Firesales in developing countries are when big fortunes are made, and US oligarchs certainly want their pound of flesh, too. D.C. will look the other way as long as Bolso pursues a pro-US foreign policy and puts the country up to sale to be looted. All the talk about 'human rights' will be shunted aside as the blood flows.
回复：@Alin
I've not paid much attention to the subject, so I don't know much about it, but here, in Brazil, it seems to be mostly (Christian?) Lebanese (in politics, Haddad, Skaf, Kassab, Maluf... Alckmin and Murad may be non-Lebanese Arabs? I dunno) and pretty much only in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. They have the well-regarded Syrian-Lebanese Hospital here, so they must be important.
There's Slim in Mexico, but he's the only non-Brazilian Latin American of Lebanese descent I can readily name (making me no better than most people. Again, I'm sorta ignorant).
回复：@Hyperborean、@Brás Cubas
阿尔克明家族与阿拉伯人没有任何关系。是的，这个词本身源自阿拉伯语，但采用它作为姓氏的葡萄牙后裔则取自他们在葡萄牙拥有的一个庄园的名称。其中一位政客鼓励人们感到困惑，并冒充阿拉伯人，显然是因为这给了他某种精明的光环。在这里阅读整个故事（葡萄牙语）：
http://www.asbrap.org.br/documentos/revistas/rev11_art11.pdf
巴西的债权人似乎很确定博尔索纳罗对他们有好处
回复：@Polish Perspective
那不会是不合理的。 我所说的一切都是 有条件 在他的政治支持下。
布赖恩温特是巴西的美国人，我认为他是该国最重要的英语专家——与大多数努力成为无党派人士不同——刚刚发布了一个 大文章 在他的期望中。 在他的文章中，他讨论了经济学主题。
他基本上承认我的观点：博尔索 25 年的记录本质上始终是国家主义者。 他最近的“皈依”完全没有信念。 但他提出了一个令人信服的论点，为什么这可能无关紧要：博尔索不是一个自由市场的人，但无论如何他对经济学并不感兴趣。 他的主要内容是法律和秩序以及社会问题。 所以他愿意“放弃”经济学，因为这给了他足够的政治保护来追求他真正感兴趣的东西，他知道这将面临审查并付出政治代价。
新自由主义经济学不仅使他免受将卢拉关进监狱的国内寡头的愤怒，而且使他免受华盛顿的伤害。 这就是为什么叶利钦受到华盛顿当局如此喜爱的原因——除了他毁掉了一个前大国这一方便的事实之外。 发展中国家的大甩卖是赚大钱的时候，美国寡头当然也想要他们的一磅肉。 只要博尔索奉行亲美外交政策，并让该国被出售以被掠夺，华盛顿特区就会另辟蹊径。 随着血液的流动，所有关于“人权”的讨论都将被搁置一旁。
我必须纠正这一点。 “国内寡头”都支持卢拉反对博尔索纳罗——毕竟，他们和左翼政客一起发财致富，纳税人买单。
他们中的一部分人反对卢拉挑选的继任者迪尔玛，不是因为任何深刻的分歧，而是因为她在 2015 年表现出的惊人无能。这样做后，他们预计权力会落入中左翼的 PSDB 党手中，后者自巴西民主恢复以来，一直是建制内名义上的“反对派”。
他们的错误估计是，他们认为司法机构已经完全被我们所谓的“机制”所控制，而且其中一部分被证明仍然足够独立以进行调查——而调查证明是难以想象的腐败，而且来得如此之快，以至于“机制”没能阻止评委。 当一个泄漏被堵塞时，调查发现了另外三个泄漏。 该“机制”自 2014 年以来一直试图阻止出血，但失败了。 调查带来了前所未有的街头民众动员，基本上是想绞死当权派——于是精明的政客开始走向民众需求，支持独立法官，而军方则为他们提供贴身保镖，因此直接针对他们（即暗杀）他们）变得不可行。
最终，这一切都让博尔索纳罗受益——这在 2014 年甚至 2016 年是不可想象的。
最后，不是博尔索纳罗可能或将会“将国家出售以供掠夺”。 左翼分子在 2014 年就已经这样做了。至少博尔索纳罗是我们控制抢劫的最佳机会； 巴西现在太弱了，无法完全阻止它。 但这可能会在几年内改变。
回复：@Polish Perspective
One of the ways that Russia might attack the West they suggested was taking over Libya and in some way (it was not specified) causing another flood of refugees into Europe, which I found absolutely hilarious.
Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Anatoly Karlin, @Gordo
造成利比亚“难民”大量涌入英国的原因是英国自己的国家机关。
Including the Manchester Bombing ‘refugee’.
Replies: @Mitleser, @German_reader, @John Gruskos
The ADL believes the exact same thing, and unlike Ahmadinejad they are taking effective action to turn their opinions into reality.
I’ll believe Netanyahu is a friend of Western nationalists after he gives a speech denouncing the ADL.
This is what I would come up with you asked me to invent a caricatured Brazilian-Jewish name.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/05/bolsonaros-model-its-goebbels-fascism-nazism-brazil-latin-america-populism-argentina-venezuela/
回复：@gabriel alberton
我们有真正的吉尔伯托·迪门斯坦（Gilberto Dimenstein），他（虽然我真的不是粉丝）的反对意见似乎更为温和。不确定这里的犹太人是否真的对哈达德满意，尽管正如评论者布拉斯·库巴斯指出的那样，至少我们的一些犹太人发表了反对博尔索纳罗的宣言。有些可能是合理的，有些可能是他们认为现在还是 1933 年。
你好卡林先生，这里是巴西人。对评论者的一些澄清：
1- 博尔索纳罗 = 马克里？
不。马克里是一个标准的老式新自由主义者，博尔索纳罗是一个真正的保守派。 马克里刚刚尝试（但失败）使阿根廷的堕胎合法化，即使是过去 18 年来掌管巴西的左翼分子也没有尝试这样做。
此外，巴西经济与阿根廷的经济非常不同，不仅仅是在规模和多元化方面。 巴西的债务很高（并且自 2014 年以来增长迅速），但与阿根廷不同，它几乎完全以本国货币计价并由公民持有。 因此，巴西在国际金融市场上的风险敞口与阿根廷不同，也不需要它来弥补赤字（目前）。
2 –中国
China is very important for Brazil, but not extravangantly so, like for some small Asian or African countries. Brazil’s foreign trade is actually quite geographically balanced and China does not take up a disproportionately large portion of it. Chinese investment has been growing, and it is this, specifically, that seems to concern Bolsonaro (i.e., fear of foreign control of key national assets) – a concern which seems common sense to me. But that’s very far from a trade war: I can imagine negotiations in which greater latitude for Chinese investment in Brazil is exchanged for more support for high-value Brazilian exports to China (Today, Brazil exports mainly soy, but you have seen that 支线飞机 are also one of the main items).
3 – 民主
这是一个不费吹灰之力的。 哈达德是与巴西社区党结盟的左翼工人党的候选人。 其官方计划指出，如果获胜，行政部门将绕过议会，通过“与民间社会团体进行全民协商”来制定立法。 还有很多。
博尔索纳罗是一名军官，有记录显示他是巴西 1965 年至 1985 年军事独裁政权的支持者。由于我想这里的大多数读者对巴西没有具体的了解，对“拉丁美洲独裁国家”的一般类别只有模糊的概念，因此这里有一些关于巴西案例的简要事实。首先，军方的干预只是为了阻止共产党的接管，而且是在该国历史上最大规模的大规模抗议活动的推动下才进行干预，而且他们总是说，当威胁减弱时，就会恢复民主。其次，国会保持开放，最高法院也保持开放。国会以及地区和地方选举职位定期举行选举。第三，就连总统也继续选举产生，只是不是通过直接普选，而是通过国会选举。第四，军队接管时巴西是世界第40大经济体，只有一个很小的工业部门，而他们离开时巴西是世界第八大经济体，拥有南半球最大的工业基础。第五，面对苏联通过古巴支持的城乡游击队，军政权杀害了约8人——这是左翼团体的官方估计。这是 450 年后，在一个当时拥有 25 至 90 亿人口的国家实现的。今天一天内有更多人在巴西街头被杀。这一切都表明博尔索纳罗对军政权的支持 以往 并不一定与他支持民主相矛盾 今晚. Even more because he’s winning.
4 – 比赛。
I’ve seen some commenters mentioning a racial divide in Brazilian vote. On the face of it, the more mullato Northeast supported the left while the whiter South supported Bolsonaro, but that’s quite misleading. Contrary to Lee Kuan Yew’s generally accurate dictum, there’s no real racial divide in Brazilian politics and there has never been one. Racial classification is too fluid in Brazil for this to work (although the left’s introduction of affirmative action has begun to foster this in the last two decades). Bolsonaro also won in the mainly mixed-race North, Center, and among the large mixed-race population of the Southeast, and even in the Northeast, where he lost, he got the largest percentage of the vote a non-leftist has managed to get in the last thirty years.
此外，一些评论者提到缺乏有关巴西的信息。 是的，高楼旁边的贫民窟照片是真实的——但它们大多来自东南部的大城市（圣保罗，约 20 万人口，里约热内卢，约 12 万）。 该国其他地区——以及拥有 200 亿人口的巴西——可能大不相同。 谷歌搜索格拉玛多、卡内拉、新彼得罗波利斯、布卢梅瑙和乔伊维尔等城市的图片，或者直接访问谷歌地图，打开图片，然后随意点击巴西南部内陆的小城市。 你可能会感到惊讶。
5 - 巴西的特朗普？
博尔索纳罗在战胜建制派方面堪比特朗普，在这一点上他实际上已经超越了特朗普。 毕竟，特朗普是全国知名的，是一位能够为他的竞选活动提供资金的亿万富翁，并管理了对一个已建立的民族政党的敌意收购。 博尔索纳罗非常不为人知（从他的媒体那里得知的是一个卡通极右翼恶棍）。 他没钱。 His party existed only on paper (it has no offices throughout the country and fewer than 10 elected officials – but now it has become the second largest party in Congress). 他每天只有七秒的电视时间。 所有的机构都反对他，还有所有的媒体和所有美丽的人。 他唯一的优势是大众对社交媒体的建立和巧妙使用的反感。 因此，他设法以特朗普可支配的资源较少的方式击败了该机构。
自从他的胜利变得更有可能之后，越来越多的部门争先恐后地获得他的青睐。 他在福音派和农民中很早就有了领导。 现在，该国主要的商业和工业联合会也支持他。 但只是现在，当他已经几乎赢了。 更多关于这一点的下一点。
6 – 博尔索纳罗的经济政策
由于出身军人出身，博尔索纳罗显然更习惯指挥而不是与“市场”谈判。 他任命保罗·盖德斯为他的主要经济顾问，并公开声明他（博尔索纳罗）对经济知之甚少，并将让盖德斯放手一搏，这显然安抚了市场。 但正如一些评论者所说，人们不确定这是否会成立。
然而，这里的要点是，这并不真正取决于博尔索纳罗的意愿。 这是一道数学题。 如果没有他（在纸上）承诺进行的重大改革，巴西联邦预算将在 2022 年至 2024 年之间的一年内完全消耗公务员工资和养老金。 其他一切都不会留下任何东西。 而且由于政府的净税收收入在 40% 左右，因此没有财政空间来提高税收。 所以博尔索纳罗在他的经济计划中几乎没有选择。 他必须放松管制（这里有很多事情要做）并降低一些特定的税收，以使经济重新运转。
一方面前景黯淡。 2003-2016 年左翼政府的末期将谨慎抛诸脑后，给国家财政平衡带来了巨大漏洞，同时对经济的管理不善甚至导致巴西历史上最严重的衰退（2014-2017 年更糟）甚至超过大萧条）。 更不用说他们在世界上发现的最大的腐败计划中获得的所有战利品。
然而，从结构上来说，巴西并没有那么糟糕。 即使经历了最严重的衰退，农业部门仍继续相对较快地增长。 工业部门虽然严重受损，但仍然庞大且相当现代化，其未使用的产能可以迅速投入使用。 巴西的外贸顺差创历史新高。 现在的利率是过去几十年中最低的。 所以真正的问题只是一个，联邦政府的赤字，它很大但并非无法管理，特别是因为它是本国货币。 如果博尔索纳罗只执行他承诺的几项改革——将一些国有企业私有化以偿还债务、简化税法、社会保障改革以及摆脱阻碍农业和采矿业投资的左翼法规——巴西可以几年后再次开始变得强大。
7 – 阿拉伯人
阿拉伯人在巴西非常有名。 我们是少数几个阿拉伯游说团体比犹太游说团体更强大的国家之一，尽管巴西犹太社区也相当有影响力。 博尔索纳罗向以色列示好与犹太人无关，这是对他的福音派选民的安慰。 很难说这里有多少阿拉伯人； 仅黎巴嫩人就有大约 10 万人。 除了左派哈达德，现任总统米歇尔·特梅尔也是阿拉伯人——他是七个兄弟之一，唯一一个出生在巴西，其他兄弟出生在黎巴嫩。
我们还拥有世界上最大的日裔社区。 巴西人是日本第三大移民群体。 而且……我们会的，这已经太长了。 希望它有用！
你对情况的总结很好，但我在一点上不同意。
That is probably not true. Bolsonaro, as I said in my other post, has strong ties with the Jewish community. It's the rich Jews I am talking about here. Why do you think he chose to recover from his knife wound at the Albert Einstein hospital? Why do you think he was invited to make a speech at Hebraica (and, incidentally, said things about quilombolas that led to a lawsuit for racism...)? Young businessmen have rallied around his candidacy, a lot earlier than election day:https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/dois-empresarios-paulistas-contam-por-que-estimulam-bolsonaro/
Of course it has to do with evangelicals also. But the Right is a coherent entity, so there is no surprise here.
Replies: @DFH, @Alin
High quality comment, thank you.
For such a large country, there is very little information in English about Brazil.
回复：@Alin
Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be. Demographically its around 60% mulattos and mestizos, 25% white, and 15% black with an average IQ of 87.
Under Bolsonaro, it will just be a stable, economically sound middle income country with a more manageable crime rate. I expect nothing more than that for the country as a whole. The rich whites of Brazil, however, do indeed live absolutely world class lifestyles albeit at the mercy of high crime, quite similar to South Africa.
According to the census, and based on self-identification, Brazil is ~50% white, ~40% mixed-race, ~6% black, ~3% Asian (mainly Japanese) and ~1% Indian (feather).
当然，巴西的种族分类是出了名的不稳定，但另一方面，这个国家幅员辽阔。即使我们将一半的官方白人视为“不是真正的白人”，巴西仍然会留下约 50 万“真正的白人”。这使巴西成为世界上最大的白人国家之一。如果你将三分之二的巴西白人视为“不是真正的白人”，那么仍然会留下约 33 万“真正的白人”——这不是一个小数字。与拥有约 4 万白人的南非根本无法相提并论。
Charles Murray, of Bell Curve fame, once made a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the likely size of the Brazilian smart fraction. In absolute numbers, he guesstimated it to be equal in size to Germany's. He did this in a lecture he gave in Brazil a decade or so ago, but I can't find the link to it right now. Anyway, if Brazil managed to find these people and put them in the proper positions within its society, it would do quite well even if you buy all the HDB orthodoxy about the uneraltably lower IQ of other groups (besides, the mixed-race in Brazil have high levels of white admixture, much higher than, say, African-Americans, and this, according to HBD orthodoxy, should help them somewhat). Brazil is the world's 8th economy and was briefly the 5th in the mid-oughts. That's not too bad,
Maybe that's asking too much of the "country of the future". But if Brazil just stopped shooting itself in the foot with leftist policies, and, for example, started imprisoning its criminals, it would do much, much better than it is doing now. That's the promise of Bolsonaro.
回复：@Anonymous
That wouldn't be irrational. Everything I've said is 有条件 在他的政治支持下。
Brian Winter, an American in Brazil who I regard as the foremost English-speaking expert on the country - and unlike most tries hard to be nonpartisan - has just put out a 大文章 在他的期望中。 在他的文章中，他讨论了经济学主题。
He basically concedes my point: Bolso's 25 year record was consistently statist in nature. His recent "conversion" is totally without conviction. But he lays out a convincing argument why that may not matter: Bolso is not a free market guy, but he isn't that interested in economics anyway. His main plank is law and order and social issues. So he is willing to 'give away' economics because it gives him ample political protection to pursue the stuff he's really interested in, and which he knows will face scrutiny and exact a political cost.
The neoliberal economics shields him not only from the wrath of the domestic oligarchs that got Lula in jail, but also from Washington. It's why Yeltsin was so loved - apart from the convenient fact that he ruined a former Great Power - by the Washington establishment. Firesales in developing countries are when big fortunes are made, and US oligarchs certainly want their pound of flesh, too. D.C. will look the other way as long as Bolso pursues a pro-US foreign policy and puts the country up to sale to be looted. All the talk about 'human rights' will be shunted aside as the blood flows.
回复：@Alin
I have to correct this. The “domestic oligarchs” all support Lula against Bolsonaro – after all, they enriched themselves and the leftist politicians together, with the tab being picked up by the taxpayers.
他们中的一部分人反对卢拉选定的继任者迪尔玛，不是因为任何深刻的分歧，而是因为她在 2015 年表现出的惊人无能。这样做之后，他们预计权力会落入中左翼的社会民主党手中，自巴西恢复民主以来，一直是建制派名义上的“反对派”。
Their miscalculation was that they thought the Judiciary was already fully controlled by what we call “the mechanism”, and a part of it proved to be still independent enough to investigate – and what the investigations proved was unimaginable corruption, and it came so quickly that the “mechanism” didn’t manage to stop the judges. When one leak was being plugged, three others were being uncovered by the investigations. The “mechanism” has been trying to stem the hemorrhage since 2014, and failing. The investigations brought about unprecedented popular mobilization in the streets, basically wanting to hang the establishment – so savvy politicians began to move towards the popular demand and back the independent judges, while the military offered them personal bodyguards, so targeting them directly (i.e., assassinating them) became unfeasible.
In the end, it all ended up benefiting Bolsonaro – something unimaginable back in 2014 or even 2016.
Finally, it is not Bolsonaro who might or will “put the country up to sale to be looted”. The leftists had already done this by 2014. Bolsonaro is the best chance we have of having the looting be controlled at least; Brazil is now too weak to forestall it altogether. But this can change in a few years.
I strongly disagree. Lula is in jail as I write this. He was leading Bolso in the polls and even Bolso's supporters conceded that Lula was the leading favourite to win until he got jailed. If Lula was favoured by the establishment, he wouldn't have been thrown into jail. It's self-evident. He isn't even allowed to say anything to the media. He's been effectively neutralised.
我作为一个不喜欢卢拉的人这么说，不仅是因为他在全球金融危机之后的反白言论，而且正如我在上一篇关于日耳曼成就的帖子中向马库斯指出的那样，人们应该始终将个人感受与客观目标分开评估。
As for PT and corruption, your argument does not hold water. Everyone knows that they looted and were corrupt. But so is everyone else in Brazil. That has nothing to do with being favoured with domestic oligarchs. There was a relentless campaign against PT by the business class and once the recession hit, with the spiralling violence, they saw their chance to push their favoured candidates and Bolso's opportunistic instincts kicked in when he noticed this. Ergo, his sudden conversion to a free-marketeer in order to appease these business oligarchs and get himself political cover/protection. Remember that the media is owned by these same families. Unless he gets a dictatorship, he needs a domestic political base, including in the media. There's a price for everything. Same dynamic in the US. Trump, for all his populist rhetoric, knows that he must keep the neoliberal/WSJ-reading oligarchs happy, otherwise he is left defenceless in the media.
博尔索对自由市场经济学的 5 分钟到午夜的转变是 不能 credible. His statist instincts remain intact. But as Winter pointed out, he isn't that interested in economics in the first place so it doesn't matter much as long as he gets to focus on the areas where he is more personally engaged.
回复：@Alin
Under Bolsonaro, it will just be a stable, economically sound middle income country with a more manageable crime rate. I expect nothing more than that for the country as a whole. The rich whites of Brazil, however, do indeed live absolutely world class lifestyles albeit at the mercy of high crime, quite similar to South Africa.
Replies: @Alin, @Dmitry
According to the census, and based on self-identification, Brazil is ~50% white, ~40% mixed-race, ~6% black, ~3% Asian (mainly Japanese) and ~1% Indian (feather).
当然，巴西的种族分类是出了名的不稳定，但另一方面，这个国家幅员辽阔。即使我们将一半的官方白人视为“不是真正的白人”，巴西仍然会留下约 50 万“真正的白人”。这使巴西成为世界上最大的白人国家之一。如果您将三分之二的巴西白人视为“不是真正的白人”，那么仍然会留下约 33 万“真正的白人”——这不是一个小数字。根本无法与拥有约 4 万白人的南非相比。
Charles Murray, of Bell Curve fame, once made a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the likely size of the Brazilian smart fraction. In absolute numbers, he guesstimated it to be equal in size to Germany’s. He did this in a lecture he gave in Brazil a decade or so ago, but I can’t find the link to it right now. Anyway, if Brazil managed to find these people and put them in the proper positions within its society, it would do quite well even if you buy all the HDB orthodoxy about the uneraltably lower IQ of other groups (besides, the mixed-race in Brazil have high levels of white admixture, much higher than, say, African-Americans, and this, according to HBD orthodoxy, should help them somewhat). Brazil is the world’s 8th economy and was briefly the 5th in the mid-oughts. That’s not too bad,
也许这对“未来国家”的要求太高了。但如果巴西停止用左翼政策搬起石头砸自己的脚，并开始监禁罪犯，那么它会比现在做得好得多。这是博尔索纳罗的承诺。
但不同之处在于巴西的暴力事件十分严重。这不利于聪明人的繁荣，德国永远不会下降到那种暴力程度。
您对他的亲美主义有何看法？他真的支持美国吗？还是这更像是对当权者的妥协？
Yes it is pretty grim, I struggle to think of any candidate that has any redeeming qualities, May is actually not completely terrible on immigration, which puts her ahead of the rest. The Cameron generation are just dire, a Corbyn government might be the radical change to shake things up.
回复：@Excal
The May-bot’s faintly sensible notions on immigration must arise from some defect in her programming.
里斯-莫格先生和鲍里斯似乎是唯一能够激发真正（奉献）热情的人。里斯-莫格先生特意拒绝接受权杖，我相信他是认真的，但也许有一天这不会被强加给他呢？
从某些角度来看，人们很容易将鲍里斯与丘吉尔进行比较，但丘吉尔是一个严肃的人，但经常表现得不严肃，而我有时认为鲍里斯是一个不严肃的人，但经常表现得很严肃。
里斯-莫格先生像谁？肯定有人。
我必须纠正这一点。 “国内寡头”都支持卢拉反对博尔索纳罗——毕竟，他们和左翼政客一起发财致富，纳税人买单。
他们中的一部分人反对卢拉挑选的继任者迪尔玛，不是因为任何深刻的分歧，而是因为她在 2015 年表现出的惊人无能。这样做后，他们预计权力会落入中左翼的 PSDB 党手中，后者自巴西民主恢复以来，一直是建制内名义上的“反对派”。
他们的错误估计是，他们认为司法机构已经完全被我们所谓的“机制”所控制，而且其中一部分被证明仍然足够独立以进行调查——而调查证明是难以想象的腐败，而且来得如此之快，以至于“机制”没能阻止评委。 当一个泄漏被堵塞时，调查发现了另外三个泄漏。 该“机制”自 2014 年以来一直试图阻止出血，但失败了。 调查带来了前所未有的街头民众动员，基本上是想绞死当权派——于是精明的政客开始走向民众需求，支持独立法官，而军方则为他们提供贴身保镖，因此直接针对他们（即暗杀）他们）变得不可行。
最终，这一切都让博尔索纳罗受益——这在 2014 年甚至 2016 年是不可想象的。
最后，不是博尔索纳罗可能或将会“将国家出售以供掠夺”。 左翼分子在 2014 年就已经这样做了。至少博尔索纳罗是我们控制抢劫的最佳机会； 巴西现在太弱了，无法完全阻止它。 但这可能会在几年内改变。
回复：@Polish Perspective
我强烈反对。 在我写这篇文章的时候，卢拉在监狱里。 他在民意调查中领先博尔索，甚至博尔索的支持者也承认卢拉是获胜的热门人选，直到他被判入狱。 如果卢拉受到当权派的青睐，他就不会被关进监狱。 这是不言而喻的。 他甚至不被允许对媒体说任何话。 他已经被有效地压制了。
我作为一个不喜欢卢拉的人这么说，不仅是因为他在全球金融危机之后的反白言论，而且正如我在上一篇关于日耳曼成就的帖子中向马库斯指出的那样，人们应该始终将个人感受与客观目标分开评估。
至于PT和腐败，你的论点是站不住脚的。 每个人都知道他们抢劫和腐败。 但巴西的其他人也是如此。 这与受到国内寡头青睐无关。 商业阶层对 PT 进行了无情的运动，一旦经济衰退来袭，暴力升级，他们就看到了推动他们青睐的候选人的机会，当 Bolso 注意到这一点时，他的机会主义本能就开始了。 因此，他突然转变为自由市场主义者，以安抚这些商业寡头并获得政治掩护/保护。 请记住，媒体归这些家族所有。 除非他获得独裁统治，否则他需要国内政治基础，包括媒体基础。 一切都是有代价的。 在美国也是如此。 尽管特朗普发表了所有民粹主义言论，但他知道他必须让新自由主义/华尔街日报阅读寡头们高兴，否则他将在媒体上手无寸铁。
Bolso 从 5 分钟到午夜转换为自由市场经济是 不能 可信的。 他的国家主义本能完好无损。 但正如温特指出的那样，他一开始对经济学并不那么感兴趣，所以只要他能专注于他个人更感兴趣的领域，这并不重要。
好吧，波兰视角，看来我们不会同意。 但让我根据你上次的评论进一步解释我的观点。
你认为，既然卢拉在监狱里，当权派就反对他。 这从表面上看是合理的。 正如我所说，如果机构不反对他，这个 com 怎么办？ 简化的故事是这样的：
(1) 自 1985 年巴西民主恢复以来，整个政治光谱都被左翼瓜分，左翼是卢拉工人党 (PT)，中左翼是费尔南多恩里克卡多佐 (Fernando Henrique Cardoso) 的 PSDB . 其他政党存在并且很重要，例如 PMDB，但它们根本不是意识形态，它们是纯粹的个人主义、利益驱动的实体。 根本没有保守党——也没有保守的媒体，无论是电视报纸。
(2) 这对精英来说效果很好。 尽管PT和PSDB的平台相同，但它们相互攻击。 唯一的区别在于表现形式，因为 PT 有工会，而 PSDB 有技术官僚（所以我们在巴西说 PSDB 是“洗澡的 PT”）。 PSDB 的卡多佐在 1994-2002 年执政，随后是卢拉在 2003-2010 年执政，然后卢拉选举迪尔玛为他的继任者，2011-2018 年。 双方支持的文化马克思主义计划正在逐步实施，而经济机构则被优惠政策收买——而且，我们现在知道，腐败带来了大量掠夺。 纳税人买单，但美元贬值和大宗商品繁荣的积极外部冲击提振了巴西，因此几乎没有感受到痛苦。
3) 迪尔玛的政府在 PT 角色的更左翼方面代表了“金属踏板”。 至关重要的是，它极大地增加了政府对经济的直接参与，并且管理不善。 到2014年巴西陷入衰退，需要调整。 但是 PT 在这个问题上存在分歧，这让巴西无所适从。 根本没有政府，因为政府不知道该做什么，因为 PT 拿不定主意。
4) 在那一刻，机构分裂了。 正如我在最初的评论中所说，对 PT 没有根深蒂固的反对。 这纯粹是因为迪尔玛的无能。 卢拉看到了这一点，并尝试了一场软政变，他将担任部长职务并几乎统治，将迪尔玛变成了傀儡。 她反抗，但最终还是妥协了。 到那时为时已晚，因为数百万人在街头抗议。 抗议活动不是自上而下精心策划的； 迪尔玛仍然得到了大多数亿万富翁和所有工商联合会的支持。 但抗议活动使现在软弱的政府更难恢复权力。
5）因此，机构分裂，其中一部分人决定 Dilma 必须离开，根据剧本，权力将回到 PSDB。 虽然 PT 提出了抗议，当然，它对这种前景并不太不满意，因为这意味着另一方将进行痛苦的调整，他们可以在清理完烂摊子之后再回来。 如果没有腐败调查，这个计划本来可以奏效的。
6) 你说“巴西的其他人”都是腐败的，把 PT 单挑出来是不公正的。 你是对的，但你似乎没有注意到其中的含义。 整个 PT-PSDB LED 系统已损坏，或已损坏，或者您有什么。 所以整个系统必须被摧毁。 这是巴西人民的结论。 博尔索纳罗不太可能受到民众对该系统的愤怒。
7）你说博尔索纳罗转向经济自由主义是为了“安抚这些商业寡头”。 你似乎认为巴西亿万富翁支持自由市场，这是错误的。 巴西是一个相当封闭的经济体，亿万富翁通过 PT-PSDB 政府的贪污发了财。 他们非常不想要任何自由化。 并不是说巴西的深度自由化具有任何政治可行性。 但正如我所解释的那样，有些是需要的，即使博尔索纳罗或任何来领导国家的人不想要，数学也需要。
回复：@Polish Perspective
1- 博尔索纳罗 = 马克里？
No. Macri is a standard vintage neoliberal, Bolsonaro is an actual conservative. Macri just tried (and failed) to legalize abortion in Argentina, something which even the leftists which ran Brazil the last 18 years didn't try to do.
Also, the Brazilian economy is very different from Argentina's, and not just in size and diversification. Brazil's debt is high (and growing higher fast since 2014), but it is almost entirely denominated in the national currency and held by citizens, unlike Argentina's. So Brazil is not exposed to the international financial markets to the same degree Argentina is, and does not need it to fund its deficit (for now).
2-中国
中国对巴西来说非常重要，但并不像对一些亚洲或非洲小国那样重要。巴西的对外贸易实际上在地域上是相当平衡的，中国在其中所占的比例并不算特别大。中国的投资一直在增长，博尔索纳罗似乎特别担心这一点（即担心外国控制关键国家资产）——这种担忧对我来说似乎是常识。但这与贸易战相去甚远：我可以想象在谈判中，中国在巴西的投资有更大的自由度，以换取对巴西向中国高价值出口的更多支持（今天，巴西主要出口大豆，但你已经看到了 支线飞机 are also one of the main items).
3 - 民主
This one is a no-brainer. Haddad is the candidate of the leftist Worker's Party, in alliance with the Community Party of Brazil. Its official programme states that, in case of victory, the Executive will bypass parliament using "popular consultations with civil society groups" to enact legislation. There's plenty more.
Bolsonaro is a military officer and is on the record as a supporter of Brazil's 1965-1985 military dictatorship. Since I imagine most readers here have no specific knowledge of Brazil and only a hazy idea of a general category of "Latin American dictatorships", here are some quick facts about the Brazilian case. First, the military intervened only to forestall a Communist takeover, and only after pushed to it by the largest mass protests in the history of the country, and they always said that democracy would be restored when the threat had abated. Second, Congress remained open and so did the Supreme Court; regular elections were held for Congress and for regional and local elective positions. Third, even the presidents continued to be elected, just not by direct popular vote, but by Congress. Fourth, when the military took over Brazil was the world's 40th economy and had only a small industrial sector, when they left Brazil was the world's 8th largest economy with the largest industrial base of the Southern Hemisphere. Fifth, facing urban and rural guerrillas supported by the Soviet Union through Cuba, the military regime killed ~450 people - that is the official estimate of the leftist groups. This, in 25 years and in a country of 90-100 million people at the time. More people are killed in Brazilian street in a day today. All this to say that Bolsonaro's support for the military regime 以往 is not necessarily at odds with he's supporting democracy 今晚。更重要的是因为他赢了。
4 - 比赛。
I've seen some commenters mentioning a racial divide in Brazilian vote. On the face of it, the more mullato Northeast supported the left while the whiter South supported Bolsonaro, but that's quite misleading. Contrary to Lee Kuan Yew's generally accurate dictum, there's no real racial divide in Brazilian politics and there has never been one. Racial classification is too fluid in Brazil for this to work (although the left's introduction of affirmative action has begun to foster this in the last two decades). Bolsonaro also won in the mainly mixed-race North, Center, and among the large mixed-race population of the Southeast, and even in the Northeast, where he lost, he got the largest percentage of the vote a non-leftist has managed to get in the last thirty years.
Also, some commenters mentioned lacking information about Brazil. Yes, the pictures of the slums next to the high-rises are real - but they are mostly from the large cities of the Southeast (São Paulo, c. 20 million people, and Rio de Janeiro, c. 12 million). The rest of the country - and Brazil has 200m people - can be very different. Google pictures of cities like Gramado, Canela, Nova Petrópolis, Blumenau and Joinville, or just go to Google Maps, toggle pictures on, and click at random on small cities in the interior of Southern Brazil. You'll probably be surprised.
5 - The Trump of Brazil?
Bolsonaro is comparable to Trump in winning against the establishment, and in this he has actually surpassed Trump. After all, Trump was nationally known, a billionaire able to fund his campaign, and managed a hostile takeover of an established national party. Bolsonaro was very much unknown (and what was known from his, from the press, was a cartoon far-right villain). He has no money. His party existed only on paper (it has no offices throughout the country and fewer than 10 elected officials - but now it has become the second largest party in Congress). He only has seven seconds a day of television time. All the establishment was against him, as well as all the press and all the beautiful people. His only strength was popular revulsion at the establishment and skillful use of social media. So he managed to defeat the establishment with less resources that Trump had at his disposal.
自从他的胜利变得更有可能之后，越来越多的部门争先恐后地获得他的青睐。 他在福音派和农民中很早就有了领导。 现在，该国主要的商业和工业联合会也支持他。 但只是现在，当他已经几乎赢了。 更多关于这一点的下一点。
6 - Bolsonaro's economic policy
Since his origin is as a military officer, Bolsonaro is obviously more used to command than to negotiations with the "market". His naming Paulo Guedes as his main economic adviser, with public declarations that he (Bolsonaro) knows little about the economy and will give Guedes a free hand, obviously calmed the market. But people are unsure if this will hold, as some commenters said.
However, the main point here is that this is not really dependent on Bolsonaro's will. It's a question of mathematics. Without major reforms, which he is (on paper) committed to doing, the Brazilian federal budget will, in a year between 2022 and 2024, be entirely consumed with the civil servants payroll and the old-age pensions. Nothing will be left for everything else. And since the net government tax intake is in the mid-40%s, there is no fiscal space left to raise taxes. So Bolsonaro has very little choice in his economic program. He has to deregulate (much to do here) and lower some specific taxes to get the economy going again.
一方面前景黯淡。 2003-2016 年左翼政府的末期将谨慎抛诸脑后，给国家财政平衡带来了巨大漏洞，同时对经济的管理不善甚至导致巴西历史上最严重的衰退（2014-2017 年更糟）甚至超过大萧条）。 更不用说他们在世界上发现的最大的腐败计划中获得的所有战利品。
However, structurally Brazil ain't so bad. Even through the worst of the recession, the agricultural sector continued to grow relatively fast. The industrial sector, though badly maimed, remains large and considerably modern, and its unused capacity can be quickly put to work. Brazil has been having record surpluses in foreign trade. Interest rates are now the lowest in the last decades. So the real problem is just one, the federal government deficit, which is large but not unmanageable, especially because it is in the national currency. If Bolsonaro follows through with just a few of his promised reforms - privatization of some state companies to pay off the debt, streamlining the tax code, some reform in social security and getting rid of leftist regulations which hamper investment in agriculture and mining - Brazil could start growing strong again in a couple of years.
7 - Arabs
Arabs are very prominent in Brazil. We're one of the few countries where the Arab lobby is stronger than the Jewish one, even though the Brazilian Jewish community is also quite influential. Bolsonaro's overture to Israel has nothing to do with the Jews, it's a sop to his evangelical voters. It's hard to tell just how many Arabs are there here; of Lebanese alone there are some 10 million. Besides the leftist Haddad, the current president, Michel Temer, is also Arab - he is one of seven brothers, the only one born in Brazil, for the others were born in Lebanon.
We also have the largest Japanese-descended community in the world. And Brazilians are the third largest immigrant group in Japan. And... we'll, this is much too long already. Hope it was useful!
Replies: @Brás Cubas, @Thorfinnsson
你对情况的总结很好，但我在一点上不同意。
That is probably not true. Bolsonaro, as I said in my other post, has strong ties with the Jewish community. It’s the rich Jews I am talking about here. Why do you think he chose to recover from his knife wound at the Albert Einstein hospital? Why do you think he was invited to make a speech at Hebraica (and, incidentally, said things about quilombolas that led to a lawsuit for racism…)? Young businessmen have rallied around his candidacy, a lot earlier than election day:
https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/dois-empresarios-paulistas-contam-por-que-estimulam-bolsonaro/
Of course it has to do with evangelicals also. But the Right is a coherent entity, so there is no surprise here.
巴西犹太人主要是阿什肯纳兹犹太人还是塞法迪/米兹拉希犹太人？
回复：@BrásCubas
I think our area of disagreement is quite small, actually.
我同意博尔索纳罗现在与犹太社区有着紧密的联系。在他职业生涯的大部分时间里，他都没有这些，当时他的角色是媒体眼中的极右翼怪物。我认为这是他的算计，最初是因为他确实得到了福音派的支持。但这是一个玻璃杯半满或半空的情况......
回复：@BrásCubas
你对情况的总结很好，但我在一点上不同意。
That is probably not true. Bolsonaro, as I said in my other post, has strong ties with the Jewish community. It's the rich Jews I am talking about here. Why do you think he chose to recover from his knife wound at the Albert Einstein hospital? Why do you think he was invited to make a speech at Hebraica (and, incidentally, said things about quilombolas that led to a lawsuit for racism...)? Young businessmen have rallied around his candidacy, a lot earlier than election day:https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/dois-empresarios-paulistas-contam-por-que-estimulam-bolsonaro/
Of course it has to do with evangelicals also. But the Right is a coherent entity, so there is no surprise here.
Replies: @DFH, @Alin
巴西犹太人主要是阿什肯纳兹犹太人还是塞法迪/米兹拉希犹太人？
To be honest, I did not have that information, but a google search produced some results.
From the Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Brazil:
"Brazil has the 9th largest Jewish community in the world, about 107,329 according to the IBGE 2010 Census.[1] The Jewish Confederation of Brazil (CONIB) estimates that there are more than 120,000 Jews in Brazil,[2] with the lower figure representing active practitioners. The current Jewish community is composed by 75% of Ashkenazi Jews of Polish and German descent and also of 25% Sephardic Jews of Spanish, Portuguese, and North African descent; among the North African Jews, a significant number are of Egyptian descent."
有一篇研究论文（葡萄牙语）有点旧：
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-69092001000200008
I glanced through it, and apparently its figures are not broken down by types of Jews.
回复：@Dmitry
According to the census, and based on self-identification, Brazil is ~50% white, ~40% mixed-race, ~6% black, ~3% Asian (mainly Japanese) and ~1% Indian (feather).
当然，巴西的种族分类是出了名的不稳定，但另一方面，这个国家幅员辽阔。即使我们将一半的官方白人视为“不是真正的白人”，巴西仍然会留下约 50 万“真正的白人”。这使巴西成为世界上最大的白人国家之一。如果你将三分之二的巴西白人视为“不是真正的白人”，那么仍然会留下约 33 万“真正的白人”——这不是一个小数字。与拥有约 4 万白人的南非根本无法相提并论。
Charles Murray, of Bell Curve fame, once made a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the likely size of the Brazilian smart fraction. In absolute numbers, he guesstimated it to be equal in size to Germany's. He did this in a lecture he gave in Brazil a decade or so ago, but I can't find the link to it right now. Anyway, if Brazil managed to find these people and put them in the proper positions within its society, it would do quite well even if you buy all the HDB orthodoxy about the uneraltably lower IQ of other groups (besides, the mixed-race in Brazil have high levels of white admixture, much higher than, say, African-Americans, and this, according to HBD orthodoxy, should help them somewhat). Brazil is the world's 8th economy and was briefly the 5th in the mid-oughts. That's not too bad,
Maybe that's asking too much of the "country of the future". But if Brazil just stopped shooting itself in the foot with leftist policies, and, for example, started imprisoning its criminals, it would do much, much better than it is doing now. That's the promise of Bolsonaro.
回复：@Anonymous
但不同之处在于巴西的暴力事件十分严重。这不利于聪明人的繁荣，德国永远不会下降到那种暴力程度。
您对他的亲美主义有何看法？他真的支持美国吗？还是这更像是对当权者的妥协？
1- 博尔索纳罗 = 马克里？
No. Macri is a standard vintage neoliberal, Bolsonaro is an actual conservative. Macri just tried (and failed) to legalize abortion in Argentina, something which even the leftists which ran Brazil the last 18 years didn't try to do.
Also, the Brazilian economy is very different from Argentina's, and not just in size and diversification. Brazil's debt is high (and growing higher fast since 2014), but it is almost entirely denominated in the national currency and held by citizens, unlike Argentina's. So Brazil is not exposed to the international financial markets to the same degree Argentina is, and does not need it to fund its deficit (for now).
2-中国
中国对巴西来说非常重要，但并不像对一些亚洲或非洲小国那样重要。巴西的对外贸易实际上在地域上是相当平衡的，中国在其中所占的比例并不算特别大。中国的投资一直在增长，博尔索纳罗似乎特别担心这一点（即担心外国控制关键国家资产）——这种担忧对我来说似乎是常识。但这与贸易战相去甚远：我可以想象在谈判中，中国在巴西的投资有更大的自由度，以换取对巴西向中国高价值出口的更多支持（今天，巴西主要出口大豆，但你已经看到了 支线飞机 are also one of the main items).
3 - 民主
This one is a no-brainer. Haddad is the candidate of the leftist Worker's Party, in alliance with the Community Party of Brazil. Its official programme states that, in case of victory, the Executive will bypass parliament using "popular consultations with civil society groups" to enact legislation. There's plenty more.
Bolsonaro is a military officer and is on the record as a supporter of Brazil's 1965-1985 military dictatorship. Since I imagine most readers here have no specific knowledge of Brazil and only a hazy idea of a general category of "Latin American dictatorships", here are some quick facts about the Brazilian case. First, the military intervened only to forestall a Communist takeover, and only after pushed to it by the largest mass protests in the history of the country, and they always said that democracy would be restored when the threat had abated. Second, Congress remained open and so did the Supreme Court; regular elections were held for Congress and for regional and local elective positions. Third, even the presidents continued to be elected, just not by direct popular vote, but by Congress. Fourth, when the military took over Brazil was the world's 40th economy and had only a small industrial sector, when they left Brazil was the world's 8th largest economy with the largest industrial base of the Southern Hemisphere. Fifth, facing urban and rural guerrillas supported by the Soviet Union through Cuba, the military regime killed ~450 people - that is the official estimate of the leftist groups. This, in 25 years and in a country of 90-100 million people at the time. More people are killed in Brazilian street in a day today. All this to say that Bolsonaro's support for the military regime 以往 is not necessarily at odds with he's supporting democracy 今晚。更重要的是因为他赢了。
4 - 比赛。
I've seen some commenters mentioning a racial divide in Brazilian vote. On the face of it, the more mullato Northeast supported the left while the whiter South supported Bolsonaro, but that's quite misleading. Contrary to Lee Kuan Yew's generally accurate dictum, there's no real racial divide in Brazilian politics and there has never been one. Racial classification is too fluid in Brazil for this to work (although the left's introduction of affirmative action has begun to foster this in the last two decades). Bolsonaro also won in the mainly mixed-race North, Center, and among the large mixed-race population of the Southeast, and even in the Northeast, where he lost, he got the largest percentage of the vote a non-leftist has managed to get in the last thirty years.
Also, some commenters mentioned lacking information about Brazil. Yes, the pictures of the slums next to the high-rises are real - but they are mostly from the large cities of the Southeast (São Paulo, c. 20 million people, and Rio de Janeiro, c. 12 million). The rest of the country - and Brazil has 200m people - can be very different. Google pictures of cities like Gramado, Canela, Nova Petrópolis, Blumenau and Joinville, or just go to Google Maps, toggle pictures on, and click at random on small cities in the interior of Southern Brazil. You'll probably be surprised.
5 - The Trump of Brazil?
Bolsonaro is comparable to Trump in winning against the establishment, and in this he has actually surpassed Trump. After all, Trump was nationally known, a billionaire able to fund his campaign, and managed a hostile takeover of an established national party. Bolsonaro was very much unknown (and what was known from his, from the press, was a cartoon far-right villain). He has no money. His party existed only on paper (it has no offices throughout the country and fewer than 10 elected officials - but now it has become the second largest party in Congress). He only has seven seconds a day of television time. All the establishment was against him, as well as all the press and all the beautiful people. His only strength was popular revulsion at the establishment and skillful use of social media. So he managed to defeat the establishment with less resources that Trump had at his disposal.
自从他的胜利变得更有可能之后，越来越多的部门争先恐后地获得他的青睐。 他在福音派和农民中很早就有了领导。 现在，该国主要的商业和工业联合会也支持他。 但只是现在，当他已经几乎赢了。 更多关于这一点的下一点。
6 - Bolsonaro's economic policy
Since his origin is as a military officer, Bolsonaro is obviously more used to command than to negotiations with the "market". His naming Paulo Guedes as his main economic adviser, with public declarations that he (Bolsonaro) knows little about the economy and will give Guedes a free hand, obviously calmed the market. But people are unsure if this will hold, as some commenters said.
However, the main point here is that this is not really dependent on Bolsonaro's will. It's a question of mathematics. Without major reforms, which he is (on paper) committed to doing, the Brazilian federal budget will, in a year between 2022 and 2024, be entirely consumed with the civil servants payroll and the old-age pensions. Nothing will be left for everything else. And since the net government tax intake is in the mid-40%s, there is no fiscal space left to raise taxes. So Bolsonaro has very little choice in his economic program. He has to deregulate (much to do here) and lower some specific taxes to get the economy going again.
一方面前景黯淡。 2003-2016 年左翼政府的末期将谨慎抛诸脑后，给国家财政平衡带来了巨大漏洞，同时对经济的管理不善甚至导致巴西历史上最严重的衰退（2014-2017 年更糟）甚至超过大萧条）。 更不用说他们在世界上发现的最大的腐败计划中获得的所有战利品。
However, structurally Brazil ain't so bad. Even through the worst of the recession, the agricultural sector continued to grow relatively fast. The industrial sector, though badly maimed, remains large and considerably modern, and its unused capacity can be quickly put to work. Brazil has been having record surpluses in foreign trade. Interest rates are now the lowest in the last decades. So the real problem is just one, the federal government deficit, which is large but not unmanageable, especially because it is in the national currency. If Bolsonaro follows through with just a few of his promised reforms - privatization of some state companies to pay off the debt, streamlining the tax code, some reform in social security and getting rid of leftist regulations which hamper investment in agriculture and mining - Brazil could start growing strong again in a couple of years.
7 - Arabs
Arabs are very prominent in Brazil. We're one of the few countries where the Arab lobby is stronger than the Jewish one, even though the Brazilian Jewish community is also quite influential. Bolsonaro's overture to Israel has nothing to do with the Jews, it's a sop to his evangelical voters. It's hard to tell just how many Arabs are there here; of Lebanese alone there are some 10 million. Besides the leftist Haddad, the current president, Michel Temer, is also Arab - he is one of seven brothers, the only one born in Brazil, for the others were born in Lebanon.
We also have the largest Japanese-descended community in the world. And Brazilians are the third largest immigrant group in Japan. And... we'll, this is much too long already. Hope it was useful!
Replies: @Brás Cubas, @Thorfinnsson
High quality comment, thank you.
For such a large country, there is very little information in English about Brazil.
谢谢。
IMO
巴西需要
1) a one child policy for the dumbest 20%
和
2) an anti-corruption version of the inquisition made up of the sort of people who have an instinctive visceral hatred of corruption*
（*多年来我认识这样的人，所以我知道这种类型的人存在，即使在巴西这样大的国家，你也只需要几千个 brought together in single organization to burn their way through the problem)
回复：@notanon
巴西犹太人主要是阿什肯纳兹犹太人还是塞法迪/米兹拉希犹太人？
回复：@BrásCubas
To be honest, I did not have that information, but a google search produced some results.
From the Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Brazil:
“根据 IBGE 9 年人口普查，巴西拥有世界第九大犹太社区，约有 107,329 人。[2010]巴西犹太联合会 (CONIB) 估计巴西有超过 1 名犹太人，[120,000] 较低的数字代表活跃的犹太人。目前的犹太社区由 2% 的波兰和德国血统的德系犹太人以及 75% 的西班牙、葡萄牙和北非血统的塞法迪犹太人组成；在北非犹太人中，相当多的人有埃及血统。”
有一篇研究论文（葡萄牙语）有点旧：
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-69092001000200008
I glanced through it, and apparently its figures are not broken down by types of Jews.
In Israel, a lot of those Brazilian Jews live (as well as ones from Argentina).
And I've seen this year a lot of middle-age Brazilian Christians pilgrim groups walking around. When I was visiting ancient sites in Israel (earlier this year), we saw follow around one of these pilgrim groups.
There's also some vast numbers of mainly dark brown, Latin American illegal immigrants in Israel. I believe it's more often Christians from countries like Colombia, which are undocumented there.
Why so many Colombians illegally live in Israel seems a mystery (I guess it's related to religion)? When I visited Haifa, we stayed in a house of a Colombian (native Indian) woman, and she told us there are thousands of Colombians living there, to do jobs like cleaning.
Under Bolsonaro, it will just be a stable, economically sound middle income country with a more manageable crime rate. I expect nothing more than that for the country as a whole. The rich whites of Brazil, however, do indeed live absolutely world class lifestyles albeit at the mercy of high crime, quite similar to South Africa.
Replies: @Alin, @Dmitry
I’m guessing this is the original purpose of the country. So, in its own terms – it seems a pretty successful project.
To be honest, I did not have that information, but a google search produced some results.
From the Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Brazil:
"Brazil has the 9th largest Jewish community in the world, about 107,329 according to the IBGE 2010 Census.[1] The Jewish Confederation of Brazil (CONIB) estimates that there are more than 120,000 Jews in Brazil,[2] with the lower figure representing active practitioners. The current Jewish community is composed by 75% of Ashkenazi Jews of Polish and German descent and also of 25% Sephardic Jews of Spanish, Portuguese, and North African descent; among the North African Jews, a significant number are of Egyptian descent."
有一篇研究论文（葡萄牙语）有点旧：
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-69092001000200008
I glanced through it, and apparently its figures are not broken down by types of Jews.
回复：@Dmitry
In Israel, a lot of those Brazilian Jews live (as well as ones from Argentina).
And I’ve seen this year a lot of middle-age Brazilian Christians pilgrim groups walking around. When I was visiting ancient sites in Israel (earlier this year), we saw follow around one of these pilgrim groups.
以色列还有大量以深棕色皮肤为主的拉丁美洲非法移民。我相信更多的是来自哥伦比亚等国家的基督徒，他们在那里没有证件。
Why so many Colombians illegally live in Israel seems a mystery (I guess it’s related to religion)? When I visited Haifa, we stayed in a house of a Colombian (native Indian) woman, and she told us there are thousands of Colombians living there, to do jobs like cleaning.
巴西需要
1) a one child policy for the dumbest 20%
和
2) an anti-corruption version of the inquisition made up of the sort of people who have an instinctive visceral hatred of corruption*
（*多年来我认识这样的人，所以我知道这种类型的人存在，即使在巴西这样大的国家，你也只需要几千个 brought together in single organization to burn their way through the problem)
回复：@Dmitry
The result probably to scare away more of the rich people’s assets offshore, to places like Switzerland, while they continue to create more elaborate methods to continue their corruption.
我非常喜欢尝试。
回复：@notanon
i’m a big fan of experimenting.
对巴西石油和俄罗斯铁矿石都感到有点惊讶。
How much does Russia even produce in soybeans? But I suppose acreage that can be planted with wheat can generally be planted with soybeans.
US-China trade war and perhaps the Brazilian election proving to be great news for the Russian economy then.
回复：@ Mitleser，@ Mitleser
Brazilian oil does matter.
I strongly disagree. Lula is in jail as I write this. He was leading Bolso in the polls and even Bolso's supporters conceded that Lula was the leading favourite to win until he got jailed. If Lula was favoured by the establishment, he wouldn't have been thrown into jail. It's self-evident. He isn't even allowed to say anything to the media. He's been effectively neutralised.
我作为一个不喜欢卢拉的人这么说，不仅是因为他在全球金融危机之后的反白言论，而且正如我在上一篇关于日耳曼成就的帖子中向马库斯指出的那样，人们应该始终将个人感受与客观目标分开评估。
As for PT and corruption, your argument does not hold water. Everyone knows that they looted and were corrupt. But so is everyone else in Brazil. That has nothing to do with being favoured with domestic oligarchs. There was a relentless campaign against PT by the business class and once the recession hit, with the spiralling violence, they saw their chance to push their favoured candidates and Bolso's opportunistic instincts kicked in when he noticed this. Ergo, his sudden conversion to a free-marketeer in order to appease these business oligarchs and get himself political cover/protection. Remember that the media is owned by these same families. Unless he gets a dictatorship, he needs a domestic political base, including in the media. There's a price for everything. Same dynamic in the US. Trump, for all his populist rhetoric, knows that he must keep the neoliberal/WSJ-reading oligarchs happy, otherwise he is left defenceless in the media.
博尔索对自由市场经济学的 5 分钟到午夜的转变是 不能 credible. His statist instincts remain intact. But as Winter pointed out, he isn't that interested in economics in the first place so it doesn't matter much as long as he gets to focus on the areas where he is more personally engaged.
回复：@Alin
好吧，波兰人的观点，看来我们不会同意。但让我根据你最后的评论进一步解释我的观点。
You think that, since Lula is in jail, the establishment is against him. This looks reasonable on the surface of it. How did this com about if the establishment isn’t against him, as I said? The simplified story is this:
（1）自1985年巴西恢复民主以来，整个政治光谱被左翼瓜分，卢拉领导的工人党（PT）属于左翼，费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐领导的社会民主党属于中左翼。其他政党也存在并且很重要，例如 PMDB，但它们根本不具有意识形态，它们纯粹是个人主义、利润驱动的实体。根本没有保守党——也没有保守派媒体，无论是报纸还是电视。
(2) 这对于精英来说非常有效。 PT 和 PSDB 尽管平台相同，但仍互相攻击。唯一的区别在于表现形式，因为劳工党的工会力量更强，而社会民主党的技术官僚力量更强（所以我们巴西人说社会民主党是“洗澡的劳工党”）。 PSDB的卡多佐在1994年至2002年执政，卢拉在2003年至2010年执政，然后卢拉在2011年至2018年选举迪尔玛为继任者。两党支持的文化马克思主义纲领正在逐步实施，而经济机构则被有利的政策收买 — — 而且，我们现在知道，还有大量腐败掠夺。纳税人买单，但美元贬值和大宗商品繁荣的积极外部冲击使巴西上涨，因此没有感受到什么痛苦。
3) Dilma’s government represented “pedal to the metal” on the more leftist aspects of the PT’s role. Crucially, it dramatically increased direct government involvement in the economy, and mismanaged it badly. By 2014 Brazil was in a recession, and adjustment was needed. But the PT was split on the question and this left Brazil adrift. There was no government at all, because the government didn’t know what to do, because the PT couldn’t make up its mind.
4) At that moment the establishment split. As I said in my original comment, there was no deep seated opposition to PT. It was driven purely by Dilma’s incompetence. Lula saw that, and tried a soft coup in which he would take up a ministerial post and all but rule, turning Dilma into a figurehead. She resisted it, but eventually relented. By then it was too late, because the people was in the streets by the millions protesting. The protests were not orchestrated from above; Dilma still had the support of most of the billionaires and all the industrial and commercial federations. But the protests made it even more difficult for a now-weak government to recover authority.
5) So the establishment split and a part of it decided that Dilma had to go and, according to script, power would go back to the PSDB. Although the PT protested, of course, it wasn’t too unhappy with this prospect, since this meant the painful adjustment would be made by another party and they could return later on when the mess had been cleaned. This plan would have worked, if it weren’t for the corruption investigations.
6) You say that “everyone else in Brazil” is corrupt and that to single the PT out is unjust. You’re right, but it seems you’re not noticing the implications. The entire PT-PSDB led system is corrupt, or has been corrupted, or what have you. So the entire system has to be destroyed. This has been the conclusion of the Brazilian people. Bolsonaro was the unlikely recipient of popular wrath against the system.
7) You say that Bolsonaro’s conversion to economic liberalism has been in order to “appease these business oligarchs”. You seem to be under the impression that Brazilian billionaires support the free market, and that would be wrong. Brazil is a quite closed economy, and the billionaires made their fortunes with graft from the PT-PSDB governments. They very much don’t want any liberalization. Not that there is any political viability in a profound liberalization in Brazil. But some is needed, as I explained, it is required by mathematics even if undesired by Bolsonaro or whoever comes to lead the country.
I was taking issue with your absurd claim that "all oligarchs are in favor of Lula" when the guy is in jail. In a deeply corrupt society like Brazil, those who get thrown into jail are often those out of favour of the powerful. So your statement was and is ridiculous.
我认为我们的核心分歧围绕着权力的性质。
寡头们愿意务实的事实应该 不能 被视为他们永久地向一侧或一名候选人倾斜。 他们不断地扫视地平线并进行计算的对冲。
For example: think back to the Blair era in the UK. They certainly liked him, but they like an unrestrained small-state guy even more. Ruling elites are clever - that's why they are where they are. They understand that you cannot get your preferred political alternative at all times, so sometimes it makes sense to work within an ostensibly hostile party and corrupt them from within. Blair and Lula are both examples of this. This can cause naïve observers to conclude that these powerful people intrinsically 比较喜欢 一方或另一方，而实际上他们只是在巧妙地打牌。
Once and when a better potential candidate is found, they promptly ditch the guy. That's why Lula is in jail. Despite - or because of - the fact that he polled well above Bolsonaro before he was thrown in jail. Having scores to settle is also a factor working against him. All this adds up to the conclusion that the analysis that Lula is somehow the favourite of the oligarchs and that Bolsonaro is the brave fighter for justice and against corruption is patently absurd and nonsensical. It can only be espoused by a true believer of Bolsonaro, in the same vein that Trump supporters genuinely believe that he is an anti-establishment guy even after endless corporate tax cuts and virtually no movement on the border wall.
Make no mistake: I prefer both Trump and Bolsonaro over their respective opponents, but I will continue to mock the fervent propaganda that their supporters push in the face of all evidence. Bolsonaro's last-minute conversion to free market economics is also something you have not yet found strong counter to, perhaps because you know it is deeply suspicious and does make him look like an opportunist who took on economic positions in order to suit the preferences of powerful elites. I'm not making Bolso out to be worse than the others. I'm just saying this is how the game is played and Lula and Bolso are both playing it, though the supporters of them both will resist this analysis because it doesn't ennoble either of them.
回复：@Alin，@Alin
High quality comment, thank you.
For such a large country, there is very little information in English about Brazil.
回复：@Alin
谢谢。
你对情况的总结很好，但我在一点上不同意。
That is probably not true. Bolsonaro, as I said in my other post, has strong ties with the Jewish community. It's the rich Jews I am talking about here. Why do you think he chose to recover from his knife wound at the Albert Einstein hospital? Why do you think he was invited to make a speech at Hebraica (and, incidentally, said things about quilombolas that led to a lawsuit for racism...)? Young businessmen have rallied around his candidacy, a lot earlier than election day:https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/dois-empresarios-paulistas-contam-por-que-estimulam-bolsonaro/
Of course it has to do with evangelicals also. But the Right is a coherent entity, so there is no surprise here.
Replies: @DFH, @Alin
I think our area of disagreement is quite small, actually.
I agree that Bolsonaro has strong ties to the Jewish community – now. He didn’t have them during most of his career, when his role was that of a far-right bogeyman for the press. I think this is calculation on his part, driven originally from the fact that he did have support from the evangelicals. But this is a glass half-full or half-empty situation…
你说的有道理。
Fully agree with what you said about violence.
关于博尔索纳罗的亲美主义，问题相当复杂。 让我再次对此发表评论。
(1) Brazil traditionally had excellent relations with the United States from independence to the mid-20th century. American historian Bradford Burns named his book about it “The Unwritten Alliance”. Just to exemplify, since I guess these are facts few people know: (a) Secretary of State Seward asked the Brazilian Emperor to offer his mediation between the federal government and the seceding states in 1861, just before Fort Sumter. Emperor Pedro II wisely declined [Brazil was an Empire under the House of Braganza-Hapsburg, 1822-1889]; (b) the first ever visit abroad of a sitting American Secretary of State was that of Elihu Root to Rio de Janeiro in 1903; (c) Brazil entered both world wars in support of the U.S. In WWII, we sent 30,000 men to the Italian front, and would have sent 150,000 if the war hadn’t ended too soon; (d) the original configuration of the United Nations Security Council, as prepared by President Roosevelt, had Brazil as a permanent member. It came to nought because of Soviet strong opposition to the idea, British milder opposition and, above all, Roosevelt’s death before the issue was decided.
(2) 这一切都意味着巴西对二战胜利后的关系抱有很高的期望。 我们想象它会像以前一样继续下去，美国是我们的朋友，对我们的事务感兴趣，支持我们的发展计划。 当然，现在美国是一个世界帝国，而拉丁美洲只是世界的一个地区，远离战略热点，对美国没有可信的威胁。 当马歇尔计划实施时，巴西也希望收到类似的东西——当然，没有。
(3) 在冷战期间，正如预期的那样，巴西右翼亲美，左翼亲苏，因此最终结果是一种向美国略微倾斜的中立主义倾向。 但巴西右翼在与美国的密切关系“失去了美好的岁月”之后继续感到沮丧，并希望它能够恢复。 当然，每次都很失望。 1964 年军方接管时，巴西强烈转向美国，希望破灭，1967 年后再次转向中立，1974 年后更加强烈。1985 年民主回归后，我们再次希望得到美国更强有力的支持（那些年拉丁美洲外债危机），而这又没有发生。 当 1990 年代实施温和的自由化计划时，新的希望再次破灭。 当巴西随后遭受货币危机并需要国际货币基金组织的救助时（1999 年 XNUMX 月），美国并不关心，仅仅几个月后，美国就大力干预以救助叶利钦的俄罗斯。 （我记得读过一篇报纸报道，巴西谈判代表问他的美国同行为什么美国如此无助，并听到了答案“因为与俄罗斯不同，你们没有针对我们城市的核弹头”）。
因此，巴西右翼或右翼政府的记录是对美国寄予厚望，失败，然后纠正路线。 我相信博尔索纳罗会再次重复这个循环。 我的猜测是，他希望/期望他的一般反建制立场将为特朗普在华盛顿的巴西打开大门，并且他的议程将得到美国的支持，尤其是在经济方面。 所以他的亲美主义真的是真诚的，在巴西右翼的旧传统中，尤其是现在特朗普是总统。 但由于拉丁美洲仍然几乎没有在华盛顿注册，而且由于巴西仍然没有核弹头，博尔索纳罗肯定会——恕我直言——感到失望。 然后他会让这个国家回到更加中立的立场，提高金砖国家的形象，等等。我们拭目以待。
I think our area of disagreement is quite small, actually.
我同意博尔索纳罗现在与犹太社区有着紧密的联系。在他职业生涯的大部分时间里，他都没有这些，当时他的角色是媒体眼中的极右翼怪物。我认为这是他的算计，最初是因为他确实得到了福音派的支持。但这是一个玻璃杯半满或半空的情况......
回复：@BrásCubas
你说的有道理。
好吧，波兰视角，看来我们不会同意。 但让我根据你上次的评论进一步解释我的观点。
你认为，既然卢拉在监狱里，当权派就反对他。 这从表面上看是合理的。 正如我所说，如果机构不反对他，这个 com 怎么办？ 简化的故事是这样的：
(1) 自 1985 年巴西民主恢复以来，整个政治光谱都被左翼瓜分，左翼是卢拉工人党 (PT)，中左翼是费尔南多恩里克卡多佐 (Fernando Henrique Cardoso) 的 PSDB . 其他政党存在并且很重要，例如 PMDB，但它们根本不是意识形态，它们是纯粹的个人主义、利益驱动的实体。 根本没有保守党——也没有保守的媒体，无论是电视报纸。
(2) 这对精英来说效果很好。 尽管PT和PSDB的平台相同，但它们相互攻击。 唯一的区别在于表现形式，因为 PT 有工会，而 PSDB 有技术官僚（所以我们在巴西说 PSDB 是“洗澡的 PT”）。 PSDB 的卡多佐在 1994-2002 年执政，随后是卢拉在 2003-2010 年执政，然后卢拉选举迪尔玛为他的继任者，2011-2018 年。 双方支持的文化马克思主义计划正在逐步实施，而经济机构则被优惠政策收买——而且，我们现在知道，腐败带来了大量掠夺。 纳税人买单，但美元贬值和大宗商品繁荣的积极外部冲击提振了巴西，因此几乎没有感受到痛苦。
3) 迪尔玛的政府在 PT 角色的更左翼方面代表了“金属踏板”。 至关重要的是，它极大地增加了政府对经济的直接参与，并且管理不善。 到2014年巴西陷入衰退，需要调整。 但是 PT 在这个问题上存在分歧，这让巴西无所适从。 根本没有政府，因为政府不知道该做什么，因为 PT 拿不定主意。
4) 在那一刻，机构分裂了。 正如我在最初的评论中所说，对 PT 没有根深蒂固的反对。 这纯粹是因为迪尔玛的无能。 卢拉看到了这一点，并尝试了一场软政变，他将担任部长职务并几乎统治，将迪尔玛变成了傀儡。 她反抗，但最终还是妥协了。 到那时为时已晚，因为数百万人在街头抗议。 抗议活动不是自上而下精心策划的； 迪尔玛仍然得到了大多数亿万富翁和所有工商联合会的支持。 但抗议活动使现在软弱的政府更难恢复权力。
5）因此，机构分裂，其中一部分人决定 Dilma 必须离开，根据剧本，权力将回到 PSDB。 虽然 PT 提出了抗议，当然，它对这种前景并不太不满意，因为这意味着另一方将进行痛苦的调整，他们可以在清理完烂摊子之后再回来。 如果没有腐败调查，这个计划本来可以奏效的。
6) 你说“巴西的其他人”都是腐败的，把 PT 单挑出来是不公正的。 你是对的，但你似乎没有注意到其中的含义。 整个 PT-PSDB LED 系统已损坏，或已损坏，或者您有什么。 所以整个系统必须被摧毁。 这是巴西人民的结论。 博尔索纳罗不太可能受到民众对该系统的愤怒。
7）你说博尔索纳罗转向经济自由主义是为了“安抚这些商业寡头”。 你似乎认为巴西亿万富翁支持自由市场，这是错误的。 巴西是一个相当封闭的经济体，亿万富翁通过 PT-PSDB 政府的贪污发了财。 他们非常不想要任何自由化。 并不是说巴西的深度自由化具有任何政治可行性。 但正如我所解释的那样，有些是需要的，即使博尔索纳罗或任何来领导国家的人不想要，数学也需要。
回复：@Polish Perspective
当那个人在监狱里时，我对你荒谬的说法提出异议，即“所有寡头都支持卢拉”。 在巴西这样一个腐败严重的社会中，被关进监狱的往往是那些不受权势青睐的人。 所以你的说法是荒谬的。
我认为我们的核心分歧围绕着权力的性质。
寡头们愿意务实的事实应该 不能 被视为他们永久地向一侧或一名候选人倾斜。 他们不断地扫视地平线并进行计算的对冲。
例如：回想英国的布莱尔时代。 他们当然喜欢他，但他们更喜欢一个放荡不羁的小国人。 统治精英很聪明——这就是为什么他们在那里。 他们明白你不可能总是得到你喜欢的政治选择，所以有时在一个表面上充满敌意的政党内工作并从内部腐蚀他们是有道理的。 布莱尔和卢拉都是这方面的例子。 这可能会导致天真的观察者得出结论，这些有权势的人本质上 比较喜欢 一方或另一方，而实际上他们只是在巧妙地打牌。
一旦找到更好的潜在候选人，他们就会立即抛弃这个人。 这就是卢拉入狱的原因。 尽管——或者因为——在他被投入监狱之前，他的民意调查远远高于博尔索纳罗。 有分数要解决也是对他不利的一个因素。 所有这些加在一起得出的结论是，关于卢拉在某种程度上是寡头们的最爱以及博尔索纳罗是正义和反腐败的勇敢斗士的分析显然是荒谬和荒谬的。 它只能由博尔索纳罗的真正信徒支持，就像特朗普的支持者真正相信他是一个反建制派的人一样，即使在无休止的企业减税和边界墙上几乎没有动静之后。
毫无疑问：我更喜欢特朗普和博尔索纳罗，而不是他们各自的对手，但我将继续嘲笑他们的支持者在所有证据面前推行的狂热宣传。 博尔索纳罗在最后一刻转向自由市场经济也是你尚未发现强烈反对的事情，也许是因为你知道这非常可疑，并且确实让他看起来像一个机会主义者，为了适应有权势的人的喜好而担任经济职位。精英。 我不会让博尔索比其他人更糟糕。 我只是说这就是游戏的玩法，卢拉和博尔索都在玩游戏，尽管他们的支持者都会抵制这种分析，因为它不会使他们中的任何一个变得高尚。
在巴西这样一个腐败严重的社会中，被关进监狱的往往是那些不受权势青睐的人。
在这里，您预设了您的结论。 我们不是一个完全制度化的民主共和国，但巴西太大、太复杂、中产阶级太多，不能被认为是一个少数家庭主宰一切的香蕉共和国。 建制派强大，非常强大，但他们无法控制一切。 走出差距，幸运的是，博尔索纳罗出现了。
他们明白你不可能总是得到你喜欢的政治选择，所以有时在一个表面上充满敌意的政党内工作并从内部腐蚀他们是有道理的。
我的全部观点是没有“表面上敌对的政党”。 PT和PSDB都是暹罗兄弟。 他们中的任何一个对精英来说都可以。
这就是卢拉入狱的原因。 尽管——或者因为——在他被投入监狱之前，他的民意调查远远高于博尔索纳罗。
卢拉入狱是因为他和他的政党领导了人类历史上最令人震惊的腐败活动。 我无法在一篇博文中总结四年的新闻，所以我只会留下最新的。 卢拉和迪尔玛最重要的部长、卢拉和迪尔玛最重要的部长安东尼奥·帕洛奇承认，在卢拉通过行政令批准的 1000 项法律中，有 9 项是为了换取贿赂。 （试图进行比较，想象一下迪克·切尼（Dick Cheney）是否宣誓就小布什政府的运作进行了陈述）。 卡扎菲资助了卢拉的第一次总统竞选，这足以永久禁止 PT，因为禁止从国外接收资金。 这不仅仅是他的话：他向调查人员发送了大量文件和电子邮件。 这只是冰山一角。 我们从 PT 的最后三位财务主管、该党的前国会领导人那里得到了类似的启示，还有很多很多。 在调查中追回的资金——不仅被发现被盗，而且实际上返还给国家或国有公司——数量达数百亿美元。 对于 PT 最高法院来说，情况并没有更糟——11 人中有 XNUMX 人是由卢拉或迪尔玛提名的——尽其所能保护他们，但他们不能当面藐视法律，尽管有时他们会尝试。
此外，民意调查是谎言。 我不是刚刚告诉你，所有权力都反对博尔索纳罗吗？ 根据第一轮投票结果，就在投票前的最后一周，博尔索纳罗获得了总选票的 15%。 这太荒谬了：他已经获得了大部分选票，但民意调查人员却在撒谎以帮助他的对手。 一项审查显示，自 5 年以来的所有选举中，所有巴西民意调查机构系统地支持 PT 反对反对党至少 10%，通常为 2000%。不能知道。 我认为卢拉的表现大约为 33%，比他的替补哈达德高出约 9 分。 卢拉仍然会输掉对博尔索纳罗的第二轮比赛。
一旦找到更好的潜在候选人
寡头们再一次没有也不支持博尔索纳罗。 他们中的一些人只是在他的胜利几乎确定的情况下才走他的路。 媒体继续无耻地对他撒谎，并为 PT 报道。 请记住，博尔索纳罗在一个月前被刺伤并差点死了，但媒体对研究潜在的刺客没有兴趣......如果卢拉发生了这种情况，我们会在他第三名时知道刺客的狗的名字年级。
有分数要解决也是对他不利的一个因素。
在这里你是正确的。 的确，这是现在对他不利的主要因素。 如果该机构知道，当他们决定放弃 PT（以恢复 PSDB）时，他们会得到 Bolsonaro，他们永远不会这样做。 不是在一百万年。 所以现在我们有一个可信度问题，卢拉如何有意义地表示他不会寻求报复。 如果有一个解决方案，博尔索纳罗会干杯。 一个月前，他又一次差点被一名极左激进分子杀害。
如果卢拉能够被说服将真正的领导权交给哈达德或其他人就好了……但他不会那样做。 至少目前是这样。 或者他会支持 Ciro Gomes（另一个较小的左翼政党 PDT 的候选人，他曾在 PT 和 PSDB 政府中担任部长 - 我是否提到过他们是同一回事？）。 Gomes would not carry the PT's stigma, while keeping to the same pact, and he had indicated he'd pardon Lula if elected. （实际上，在卢拉入狱之前，他说他会冲进监狱释放他。但这是他没有遵守的承诺）。
博尔索纳罗是正义的勇敢斗士，反腐败显然是荒谬和荒谬的。
不是，但不是因为博尔索纳罗是这样的天使。 当然不是，他是一个追求权力的政治家。 但在巴西政治令人难以置信的泥潭中，在国会任职近 XNUMX 年的博尔索纳罗没有任何针对他的腐败案件。 如果有任何事情，我们就会知道这一切，因为新闻界已经绝望了。 他们正在发布消息称 Bolsonaro 未能将他的汽车送到汽车制造商的强制召回！ 再说一遍，这不是因为他确定一个纯洁的灵魂，而是因为他在奥弗顿窗口之外太远，无法被纳入“机制”。
正因为如此，博尔索纳罗有强烈的动机成为“正义和反腐败的勇敢斗士”：这场斗争不可能得到他（或者已经得到了），也不会得到他的支持者（他们没有直到现在，他们还没有机会抢劫）。 它只会伤害他的敌人，包括 PT 和 PSDB。 因此，博尔索纳罗有一种内在的兴趣，可以帮助确保，就行政部门而言，调查继续有增无减，司法机构开展工作。 这不是纯洁，这是政治利益。
当然，他可能会尝试安装一种有利于他的新腐败机制来取代旧机制。 事实上，如果不是今天的情况，我会说他或其他任何人都会这样做。 报仇雪恨博尔索纳罗的媒体肯定会寻找政府腐败的任何和所有证据，并立即公布，而不是像 PT 政府那样等待五年或十年。 领导腐败调查的法官也很乐意让新博尔索纳罗政府的某个人加入，因为这将有助于证明他们的独立性，并在左派走自己的道路时获得一致支持（因为右派不会容忍另一个公开腐败的政府）。 因此，巴西现在最有可能建立一个相当干净的政府，它已经有一段时间了。 走着瞧。
完成
博尔索纳罗在最后一刻转向自由市场经济也是你尚未发现强烈反对的事情，也许是因为你知道这非常可疑，并且确实让他看起来像一个机会主义者，为了适应有权势的人的喜好而担任经济职位。精英。
嗯，我确实说过它是简单的数学现实所要求的。
但你的错误是认为博尔索纳罗的自由经济平台，无论真诚与否，都适合“强大精英的偏好”。 它没有。 巴西精英们憎恶经济自由主义，因为他们在封闭的经济中茁壮成长，并且与国家关系密切。 博尔索纳罗或其他任何人永远不会在巴西进行任何自由化革命的原因，而不是他的不诚实（即使存在）。 但是他会被数学逼着做一些渐进式的改革，这比他现在所做的要好得多。
回复：@Alden
对于不安分的年轻人来说，军事工作让他们受到控制
I was taking issue with your absurd claim that "all oligarchs are in favor of Lula" when the guy is in jail. In a deeply corrupt society like Brazil, those who get thrown into jail are often those out of favour of the powerful. So your statement was and is ridiculous.
我认为我们的核心分歧围绕着权力的性质。
寡头们愿意务实的事实应该 不能 被视为他们永久地向一侧或一名候选人倾斜。 他们不断地扫视地平线并进行计算的对冲。
For example: think back to the Blair era in the UK. They certainly liked him, but they like an unrestrained small-state guy even more. Ruling elites are clever - that's why they are where they are. They understand that you cannot get your preferred political alternative at all times, so sometimes it makes sense to work within an ostensibly hostile party and corrupt them from within. Blair and Lula are both examples of this. This can cause naïve observers to conclude that these powerful people intrinsically 比较喜欢 一方或另一方，而实际上他们只是在巧妙地打牌。
Once and when a better potential candidate is found, they promptly ditch the guy. That's why Lula is in jail. Despite - or because of - the fact that he polled well above Bolsonaro before he was thrown in jail. Having scores to settle is also a factor working against him. All this adds up to the conclusion that the analysis that Lula is somehow the favourite of the oligarchs and that Bolsonaro is the brave fighter for justice and against corruption is patently absurd and nonsensical. It can only be espoused by a true believer of Bolsonaro, in the same vein that Trump supporters genuinely believe that he is an anti-establishment guy even after endless corporate tax cuts and virtually no movement on the border wall.
Make no mistake: I prefer both Trump and Bolsonaro over their respective opponents, but I will continue to mock the fervent propaganda that their supporters push in the face of all evidence. Bolsonaro's last-minute conversion to free market economics is also something you have not yet found strong counter to, perhaps because you know it is deeply suspicious and does make him look like an opportunist who took on economic positions in order to suit the preferences of powerful elites. I'm not making Bolso out to be worse than the others. I'm just saying this is how the game is played and Lula and Bolso are both playing it, though the supporters of them both will resist this analysis because it doesn't ennoble either of them.
回复：@Alin，@Alin
在巴西这样一个腐败严重的社会中，被关进监狱的往往是那些不受权势青睐的人。
在这里你预设了你的结论。我们不是一个完美制度化的民主共和国，但巴西太大、太复杂、中产阶级太多，不能被视为少数家庭主宰一切的香蕉共和国。建制派很强大，非常强大，但他们无法控制一切。博尔索纳罗在空白中出现了，而且运气很好。
他们明白你不可能总是得到你喜欢的政治选择，所以有时在一个表面上充满敌意的政党内工作并从内部腐蚀他们是有道理的。
My whole point is that there was no “ostensibly hostile party”. Both PT and PSDB were siamese brothers. Any of them would be OK to the elites.
这就是卢拉入狱的原因。 尽管——或者因为——在他被投入监狱之前，他的民意调查远远高于博尔索纳罗。
Lula is in jail because he and his party led the most astonishing corruption racket in the history of mankind. I can’t summarize four years of news in a blog post, so I’ll leave just the latest ones. Antonio Palocci, founder of the PT, the most important minister of both Lula and Dilma, confessed that, out of 1000 laws approved by Lula by executive decree, nine hundred of them were done in exchange for bribes. (Trying to make a comparison, imagine if Dick Cheney stated that, under oath, about the workings of the Bush Junior government). And that Khaddafi funded Lula’s first presidential campaign, which is enough to permanently ban the PT since receiving money from abroad is prohibited. And it’s not just his word: he delivered tons of documents and emails to the investigators. This is just the tip of the iceberg. We have similar revelations from the last three treasurers of the PT, from the party’s former leaders in Congress, and much, much more. Money that has been recovered in the investigations – not just discovered stolen, but actually returned to the state or state companies – numbers in the tens of billions of dollars. Things aren’t even worse for PT the Supreme Court – 9 of 11 judged were nominated by Lula or Dilma -does what it can to shield them, but they can’t flout the law to its face, although sometimes they try.
此外，民意调查也是谎言。我刚才不是告诉过你，所有权力都反对博尔索纳罗吗？根据第一轮结果，博尔索纳罗在投票前一周获得了总选票的15%。这很荒谬：他已经获得了大部分选票，但民意调查者却撒谎来向他的对手提供援助。一项审查显示，自 5 年以来的所有选举中，所有巴西民意调查机构都系统性地支持劳工党，以至少 10% 的得票率（通常为 2000%）。所以，卢拉的民调并没有远高于博尔索纳罗，或者至少我们认为不可能知道这一点。我认为卢拉的表现约为 33%，比他的替补哈达德高出约 9 个百分点。卢拉仍将在第二轮输给博尔索纳罗。
一旦找到更好的潜在候选人
寡头们再一次没有支持博尔索纳罗。他们中的一些人直到他的胜利几乎确定之后才开始追随他的脚步。媒体继续无耻地对他撒谎并为劳工党进行报道。请记住，博尔索纳罗一个月前被刺伤，差点丧命，但媒体对研究这位潜在的刺客没有兴趣……如果这件事发生在卢拉身上，我们就会在他三年级时知道刺客的狗的名字。
有分数要解决也是对他不利的一个因素。
Here you are correct. Indeed, this is the main factor working against him now. If the establishment had known, when they decided to ditch the PT (to get the PSDB back), that they would get Bolsonaro instead, they’d never do it. Not in a million years. So now we have a credibility problem, how Lula can meaningfully signal he won’t seek revenge. If there was a solution to that, Bolsonaro would be toast. Again, he was almost killed by a far-left activist a month ago.
If only Lula could be convinced to relinquish real leadership to Haddad or someone else… but he won’t do that. For now at least. Or he’d have supported Ciro Gomes (candidate of another smaller leftist party, the PDT, and who was minister in both PT and PSDB governments – did I mention that they’re the same thing?). Gomes would not carry the PT’s stigma, while keeping to the same pact, and he had indicated he’d pardon Lula if elected. (Actually, before Lula was jailed, he said he’d storm the prison to free him. But that’s a promise he didn’t keep).
博尔索纳罗是正义的勇敢斗士，反腐败显然是荒谬和荒谬的。
事实并非如此，但这并不是因为博尔索纳罗是一位天使。当然不是，他是一个追求权力的政客。但在巴西政坛令人难以置信的泥潭中，博尔索纳罗在国会任职近三十年，却没有针对他的腐败案件。如果有什么事情，我们都会知道，因为媒体已经绝望了。他们正在报道博尔索纳罗未能将他的汽车送交汽车制造商强制召回！再说一次，这并不是因为他确信有一个纯洁的灵魂，而是因为他离奥弗顿窗口太远，无法被纳入“机制”。
Because of this, Bolsonaro has a strong incentive to be a “brave fighter for justice and against corruption”: the fight won’t possibly get him (or it would have already), and neither will it get his supporters (who did not hold elected office until now, so they haven’t yet had the opportunity to loot). It will only harm his enemies, both of the PT and of the PSDB. So Bolsonaro has a built-in interest to help ensure, as far as the Executive goes, that the investigations continue unabated and that the Judiciary does its work. It’s not purity, it’s political interest.
Of course it’s possible he’ll try to install a new corruption mechanism in his favor to replace the old one. Indeed, I would say he or anyone else would do that if it weren’t for the way the situation is today. The press, which hates Bolsonaro with a vengeance, will surely look for any and all evidence of corruption in the government, and will publish it immediately instead of waiting for five or ten years as was the case with the PT governments. The judges leading the corruption investigations would also love to get someone of the new Bolsonaro government, as this would help prove their independence and get unanimous support as the left goes their way (since the right will not tolerate another openly corrupt government). So Brazil has now the best chance at a somewhat clean government it has had in quite some time. We’ll see.
I was taking issue with your absurd claim that "all oligarchs are in favor of Lula" when the guy is in jail. In a deeply corrupt society like Brazil, those who get thrown into jail are often those out of favour of the powerful. So your statement was and is ridiculous.
我认为我们的核心分歧围绕着权力的性质。
寡头们愿意务实的事实应该 不能 被视为他们永久地向一侧或一名候选人倾斜。 他们不断地扫视地平线并进行计算的对冲。
For example: think back to the Blair era in the UK. They certainly liked him, but they like an unrestrained small-state guy even more. Ruling elites are clever - that's why they are where they are. They understand that you cannot get your preferred political alternative at all times, so sometimes it makes sense to work within an ostensibly hostile party and corrupt them from within. Blair and Lula are both examples of this. This can cause naïve observers to conclude that these powerful people intrinsically 比较喜欢 一方或另一方，而实际上他们只是在巧妙地打牌。
Once and when a better potential candidate is found, they promptly ditch the guy. That's why Lula is in jail. Despite - or because of - the fact that he polled well above Bolsonaro before he was thrown in jail. Having scores to settle is also a factor working against him. All this adds up to the conclusion that the analysis that Lula is somehow the favourite of the oligarchs and that Bolsonaro is the brave fighter for justice and against corruption is patently absurd and nonsensical. It can only be espoused by a true believer of Bolsonaro, in the same vein that Trump supporters genuinely believe that he is an anti-establishment guy even after endless corporate tax cuts and virtually no movement on the border wall.
Make no mistake: I prefer both Trump and Bolsonaro over their respective opponents, but I will continue to mock the fervent propaganda that their supporters push in the face of all evidence. Bolsonaro's last-minute conversion to free market economics is also something you have not yet found strong counter to, perhaps because you know it is deeply suspicious and does make him look like an opportunist who took on economic positions in order to suit the preferences of powerful elites. I'm not making Bolso out to be worse than the others. I'm just saying this is how the game is played and Lula and Bolso are both playing it, though the supporters of them both will resist this analysis because it doesn't ennoble either of them.
回复：@Alin，@Alin
完成
博尔索纳罗在最后一刻转向自由市场经济也是你尚未发现强烈反对的事情，也许是因为你知道这非常可疑，并且确实让他看起来像一个机会主义者，为了适应有权势的人的喜好而担任经济职位。精英。
嗯，我确实说过它是简单的数学现实所要求的。
But your mistake is thinking that Bolsonaro’s liberal economic platform, sincere or otherwise, suits “the preferences of powerful elites”. It doesn’t. Brazilian elites abhor economic liberalism since they have thrived on a closed economy and in close connection with the state. That, and not insincerity on his part (even if it’s there) is why Bolsonaro or anyone else will never make any liberalizing revolution in Brazil. But he will be forced by mathematics to do some incremental reforms, and that will be a hell of an improvement over what he have now.
That's the wrong analogy. I would blame the leftists in media and politics who promote black violence and inhibit defense against such violence. Likewise, the neocons who funded and armed the Syrian conflict and then supported refugees into Europe would be responsible for the violence in Europe. I would fully support Europeans or European regimes identifying, targeting, and terminating those neocons in extrajudicial killings for their crimes. And I would certainly vote to acquit in any jury trial for charges of murder brought against Europeans for targeting those neocons.
回复：@Thorfinnsson，@Tyrion 2
Do non-white ever make a choice?
Pleased to see the forthcoming uncuckening of Based Brazil by Based Bolsonaro. I have about a dozen Brazilian friends on FB, all of them voted Haddad. Now they are posting shit comparing Bolsonaro to Hitler (muh Godwin’s Law), making him the most pro-Israel Hitler ever.