Facebook的：错的
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长期的读者知道，在2010年左右， Facebook怀疑论者。 我会定期检查 谷歌趋势 结果，并将其发布，以说明指数增长阶段即将结束（您也可以在用户群中看到这一点）。 “社交网络” 电影似乎也预示着Facebook文化影响力的最高峰。 好吧，无论搜索引擎的术语是什么， 考虑到业务可行性，我似乎错了，Facebook尚未达到顶峰。 我停止谈论Facebook的事实就是一个线索，因为如果我是对的话，我无疑会发表自己的辩护。 但是我认为承认自己在公共场合是错的可能很有用，特别是因为 其他的是.
再给它一点时间，我相信你会被证明是正确的。 我懂了 Free Introduction FB、谷歌、亚马逊等的真正终结。 最好不要放弃所有纸质书。 话又说回来，我到处告诉大家 Y2K 意味着 文明的终结 据我们所知。
American paranoia needs to be experienced to be believed.
And if you went around telling disaster stories about Y2K, you (1) didn’t know what you were talking about, and (ii) behaved irresponsibly.
I’m not sure it is wise to be bullish on FB, as a stock or platform. The stock is still wildly over priced. There’s a lot of levitation in the market that cannot last forever. The air coming out of the Amazon balloon is something to watch as it may be a harbinger of things to come. FB is a $20 stock trading at $75 so they either see revenues rise at orders of magnitude they are currently forecasting or the stock comes down to earth.
As a company, their financial shows they have not really grown their mobile side as the media claims. In fact, it appears to have stalled. User growth has stalled and is growing increasingly older and more third world. At some point that turns up in their revenue. Barring a second act, it is tough to imagine big revenue gains.
Facebook市值197亿股，如果每股价值75美元，那么总共有2,62亿股。
Facebook拥有1,32亿活跃用户，这意味着什么 1 个用户相当于 2 股
所以，一个用户价值150美元。似乎有点被高估了。
Like Quadrixelboom suggests, it’s pretty hard to see that the net present value of the ability to advertise to me, even given quite a bit of information about me, is worth $150. That probably means getting me to buy $1500 to $15,000 worth of stuff I saw advertised on Facebook, which is pretty unlikely. Unless I actually went for one of those online Master’s degree programs.
As for whether Facebook lasts, here’s an interesting perspective:
Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics