中国是第二
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根据周一早些时候发布的政府数据，在经历了三十年的惊人增长之后，中国在第二季度超过了日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。
这个里程碑虽然已经预计了一段时间，但却是最惊人的证据，表明中国的崛起是真实的，世界其他地区将不得不与一个新的经济超级大国相对应。
周一早些时候，东京表示日本经济在第二季度的价值约为1.28万亿美元，略低于中国的1.33万亿美元。 东京称，日本本季度经济增长率为0.4％，大大低于预期。 这种疲软表明，中国全年的经济将超过日本。
很多散文。 这是通过以下方式探索关系的另一种方法 谷歌数据浏览器.
（从重新发布 探索/ GNXP 经作者或代表的许可）
关注@razibkhan 
A lot of distance to cover to top the US. I personally don’t think they’ll quite make it; too many internal issues.
哇，这确实是一个里程碑。俄罗斯是否落后那么远，或者是否已被排除在数据集中之外？另外，印度在这些指标上处于什么位置？
just click the right bottom corner, and select more nations. here’s an example
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gnp_pcap_pp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:USA:CHN:JPN:BRA:RUS:IND&tstart=315532800000&tunit=Y&tlen=28&hl=en&dl=en&uniSize=0.034999999999999976&iconSize=0.5
无论如何，中国还有几十年的时间才能超越美国，到那时中国的普通公民可能只会像泰国或马来西亚的普通公民一样富有，美国仍然拥有强大的军事力量，但必须习惯于共享南方我确信中国海和印度洋，因为由于地缘政治原因，美国试图组建的遏制中国的联盟（印度、日本、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚等）不会维持下去……你与邻国站在一起，特别是如果他们很有钱，而不是远方的人……特别是如果他们不是你的主要贸易伙伴。
现在中国人口问题严重，贫富差距极大且不断扩大（特别是东部城市农村地区，尤其是西部省份，每年都会发生上千起小规模骚乱（“群体性骚乱”，通常是中国）腐败，这里的媒体没有报道）。是的，1,000 人。这是正确的，事实上我相信中国政府在 1000 年代初就停止了统计，当时这一数字在一年内达到了 2000 人左右。统计数据不太好给投资者留下深刻印象。微笑
在中国西部地区仍然有人拥有土楼房屋，住在山洞里（是的，住在山洞里，谷歌一下。）
如果他们能够保持稳定，不陷入内战等，他们还有很长的路要走。不过他们很可能会成功。
此外，日本的生产力仍然要高得多，特别是如果你考虑到它的面积相当于加利福尼亚州，人口只有美国的 1/3，而且绝大多数土地不适合居住（也容易发生地震）。
“you side with your neighbors,”
You mean the country that has been China’s mortal enemy for centuries and has committed atrocities against its people in living memory? Not likely.
You mean the country that has been China’s mortal enemy for centuries and has committed atrocities against its people in living memory? Not likely.
this is a good point. but how about germany after world war ii?
That living memory is fading. And it’s not like Japan is going to invade China now. With nuclear missiles and inverted age distributions, the time for that sort of thing is past.
“but how about germany after world war ii?”
The world’s ability to separate Germany from the actions committed by the Nazis is rather fascinating actually. My guess is their actions were simply so horrible that no one wanted to believe an entire people were capable of carrying them out and so only a small group of people were held responsible. There was also the issue of heavy ethnic integration with the victorious powers which would have led to some rather uncomfortable questions if they didn’t blame it on a small group. China and Japan consider themselves separate people and ethnic animus is much easier.
“That living memory is fading. And it’s not like Japan is going to invade China now.”
China’s history is several thousand years old. To us, the Rape of Nanking is ancient history, to them it was yesterday. Ethnic grievances don’t easily fade with time, just look at the Balkans.
“With nuclear missiles and inverted age distributions, the time for that sort of thing is past.”
Human nature hasn’t changed.
The world’s ability to separate Germany from the actions committed by the Nazis is rather fascinating actually.
这是哪里 “world” you speak of? de-nazification was a pragmatic decision once the cold war ramped up. but the victims of the nazis haven’t forgotten from what i have seen & heard, and most americans have nazism as one of the top associations with a german accent from what i can tell :-)* the greeks pulled the nazi card immediately when the germans started riding them about their debt problems.
* i had to giggle every time a german customs official at a gate in germany would ask me for “my papers” in that accent.
“where is this “world” you speak of? de-nazification was a pragmatic decision once the cold war ramped up. but the victims of the nazis haven’t forgotten from what i have seen & heard, and most americans have nazism as one of the top associations with a german accent from what i can tell”
I suppose I was a bit absolute when I made that statement. It’s true that many still hold Germans as a people responsible to varying degrees, but there’s been a definite move to link the atrocities of WWII solely to the Nazis. Time will tell how successful it will be.
It’s true that many still hold Germans as a people responsible to varying degrees, but there’s been a definite move to link the atrocities of WWII solely to the Nazis. Time will tell how successful it will be.
HM。
1) my understanding was that the de-nazification program and the zeitgeist of post-world war 2 germany did pin the whole blame on the nazis, though by the 1960s many leftist germans rejected this narrative. i don’t know how the typical german feels about this because i am not in the habit of seriously discussing this issue with them.
2) but, i have had discussions with plenty of americans about the topic, and the consensus i found is that the perception was that we had to pretend like it was about the nazis singularly, but none of us believed that. kind of like we pretend that islam is a ‘religion of peace’ just to get along as a practical matter since there are 1.5 billion of them and all. though i’m not claiming that the consensus was that germans were ‘hitler’s willing executioners’ or anything that grand. would be interesting to get a survey on the issue for americans vs. germans.
我的论点是，我们与德国的关系现在很舒适，因为德国的情况确实发生了变化。同盟国不仅击败了一个国家，还击败了一个理念。
我认为德国人自己不仅认识到纳粹主义和侵略对世界造成的损害，而且还反弹并成为德国人自己的灾难。随后，欧洲经济共同体（现为欧盟）在很大程度上成功地重塑了欧洲政治，在一定程度上削弱了国家债券并发展了更强大的欧洲认同。
现在看看结果。欧洲不愿意在几乎任何问题上发动战争，无论是在欧盟内部、边境还是远离欧盟边界的地方。第二次世界大战之前，战争是司空见惯的事，经常蹂躏这片大陆。
日本的情况更为复杂。
现在看看结果。欧洲不愿意在几乎任何问题上发动战争，无论是在欧盟内部、边境还是远离欧盟边界的地方。第二次世界大战之前，战争是司空见惯的事，经常蹂躏这片大陆。
just a minor note. between the napoleonic wars and world war 1, europe did have relative peace. there were the wars between prussia & austria and prussia & frace, and the crimean war, as well as political disturbances such as 1848, but it was really pretty stable for a while. one model is that world war 1 was so feverish because of the fact that people had forgotten how horrible mass warfare was (the napoleonic era being the last time that had happened).
i do agree that german and japanese cultures have shifted into another “equilibrium.” national characters can flip rapidly. the nordic nations used to mix it up in european wars a lot. sweden was a major power with adventures in central and eastern europe. but after exhausting wars which it didn’t have the manpower to maintain it seems that the national culture decided that it was best to take advantage of their relative out of the way location and just stay out of dust-ups.
好的，那些谷歌图表是 甜！ 动态绘图，包括动态缩放，无显式刷新。让我希望我已经编写了该代码。非常优雅的界面。
“the consensus i found is that the perception was that we had to pretend like it was about the nazis singularly, but none of us believed that.”
We’re good at creating convenient fictions when the truth is too terrible to face, even if we admit it is a fiction when pressed. None of us would get through our own lives otherwise if we didn’t lie to ourselves from time to time.
“one model is that world war 1 was so feverish because of the fact that people had forgotten how horrible mass warfare was (the napoleonic era being the last time that had happened).”
It can be fairly readily explained by the Napoleonic wars making a complete mess of the geopolitics of Europe. Most countries were inward facing at the time and Britain was essentially unchallenged in military supremacy until the other European powers got it together enough to actually look outwards (about the 1870’s). Even then, great power wars came close quite a few times prior to WWI (GB v. France and GB & France v. Russia).
Read Dreadnought by Robert K. Massie. He goes into the power plays and personalities that ultimately led to to WWI in great detail.
I think WWII stands alone as a war that completely burned any interest in war out of its participants for generations. Sadly, I think it also burned out any interest in pursuing any ideals or bold aspirations as well. Europe mostly seems content surviving.
“The Japanese situation is more complicated.”
Japan seems to be steadily moving towards a more aggressive stance in world affairs (partially out of necessity). This isn’t widely known, but their military is actually one of the best in the world. My guess is that in another generation, they’ll have amended their constitution and fully cast off their pacifistic stance.