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人类相信他们想相信的任何谎言的能力永远不会低于我的预期,但有时甚至会更高。 这在经济学领域最为明显,我每天都在金融媒体上看到一些人,他们的智商肯定在 XNUMX 以上,但他们的写作就像他们的大脑是空壳中的烂花生。 我称之为经济否认,本周围绕出现的高超音速通胀数据和病态的零售数据提供了一些明显的例子。 是的,我说的是“病态”,但你不会从你所读到的内容中猜到它有多消极。

零售业的低迷在媒体上燃放了烟花

让我们从周五的零售报告开始,其中撰写财经新闻的人显然很聪明,可以打字,这使得他们在理论上比众所周知的猿猴更聪明,只要有无限的时间,最终将设法击败哈姆雷特。 许多人甚至被他们的同事视为“分析师”或“经济学家”。 然而,最基本的经济学概念直接在他们的脑海中闪过,却没有像中微子一样通过一层薄薄的果冻击中一个突触。

我承认,多年来,我得出的结论是,总的来说,经济学家对实体经济或基础数学的了解比任何人都少。 因此,在所有专业人士中,他们是最不可能看到经济衰退的一群人,即使它已经像学校或食人鱼一样咀嚼他们的脚趾肉。 他们会俯视并惊叹于水的淡红色和泡沫中闪烁的漂亮鱼,并告诉我们现场没有问题。 当他们预测经济衰退时,它已经结束了。 他们就像天气预报员,在野餐已经下雨后,明天会告诉我们今天的天气。

因此,在阴暗的科学氛围中,我本周阅读了以下庆祝零售销售报告:

XNUMX 月零售额增长超过预期,因消费者尽管通胀仍保持韧性

CNBC

我只能说“哇!” 对于这样一个标题如此专注地凝视着太阳的标题,作者变得对他所写的内容视而不见。 要阅读该标题,您会认为销售实际上有所改善!

当介绍性概要说时,这篇文章几乎开始理解这里真正发生的事情,

1 月份零售额增长 0.9%,略好于预期的 XNUMX%。 这些数字未根据通货膨胀进行调整,通货膨胀率按月上涨 1.3%,表明实际销售额仍略为负数。

但随后它立即脱轨说……

消费者支出保持不变 美国商务部周五报告称,在 XNUMX 月份通胀飙升期间,由于大多数类别的价格上涨,当月零售额增长略高于预期。

不,消费者支出没有坚持下去。 这些数字清楚地显示了消费者购买 LESS STUFF 的情况。 他们大幅削减了购买量。 那不是“坚持”。 只是价格涨得这么厉害,他们还得掏钱 更多钱 得到更少的东西。

这里的数学是初级的。 零售额以美元衡量,文章刚刚告诉我们 商品价格在一个月内上涨了 1.3%,但以商品价格衡量的销售额仅上涨 1.0%,月复一月。 如果人们购买的商品数量与上个月完全相同,那么销售额(以支付的价格衡量)将增长 1.3%。 因此,人们购买的东西基本上减少了 0.3%,以试图阻止他们的成本上升。 它看起来比在许多零售类别中衡量的要差得多。

例如,如果您查看这张非耐用品销售增长图表,您会发现在过去的几年里,销售一直在为太阳而奔波,并且仍在追逐明星:

事实证明,这实际上只是一张通胀图表——通胀如此显着——尽管它被称为消费者在非耐用品上的支出图表。 将通胀因素排除在外(即使使用美联储的 严重低估 通货膨胀的衡量标准),该图如下所示:

哎呀。 今年年初,非耐用品的零售支出似乎出现了转机,当时周围有人说经济衰退开始了,并且全年都处于明显下降的趋势。

耐用品看起来也不错,除非将通货膨胀因素考虑在内,它们看起来像这样:

自去年三月以来呈下降趋势。

这对经济不利,因为这意味着未来生产的东西会减少,因为人们购买的商品减少了,这意味着运输和零售的东西会减少,因此在生产和零售业中被解雇的人将多于雇用的人因为由于价格高昂,消费者被迫削减开支。 我们称之为衰退的形成。 这是对真实数据的清晰、直接的解读(以及其他类型的日期 重要吗?)。

因此,当您阅读金融媒体的报道时,请记住相当惨淡的真实情况,这些报道是那些惨淡的科学界人士正在给予的,而不是他们应该给予的。 例如,请注意在尝试通过一些积极的旋转将这种情况刷得漂亮而闪亮时所涉及的健美操:

本月预售零售额增长 1%,好于道琼斯估计的增长 0.9%。 这标志着一个巨大的飞跃 从 0.1 月份 XNUMX% 的跌幅来看,这个数字是 上修 与最初报告的下降 0.3% 相比。

“比”和“大跃进”和“修订得更高”听起来都很好, 但这里实际上没有任何改进。 唯一发生的事情是价格暴涨。 所以, 即使在消费者减少了购买量之后,他们的银行账户(或者更有可能是信用卡)也受到了更大的打击。 作为消费者(减少银行账户或膨胀债务),您只能在那儿跑这么长时间,然后才不得不进一步削减开支。 所以,这也意味着未来的购买力下降,即使未来价格继续上涨,我向你保证,即使价格上涨得慢一点(我怀疑我们会看到一会儿)。 价格持续上涨将意味着人们购买的商品数量继续减少。 最终,是的,这将摧毁需求,正如一些人所写的, 但直到它破坏了经济! 因为一般来说 什么 在女妖尖叫的通货膨胀期间破坏需求。

文章 允许 销售额的增长是由于通货膨胀,但掩盖了这一事实 完全是由于通货膨胀,而不是由于经济活动的增加,即使是最轻微的:

尤其是食品和汽油的成本上升 帮助推动 增加, 这仍然是广泛的 根据报告中的各种指标。

不,他们没有“帮助推进……” 这听起来也有利于销售。 它们是据称零售额增长的全部基础。 由于价格上涨,这是100%! 这就是这里展示的全部内容。 没有推动 销售. 就购买的物品的数量和/或质量而言,物品的成本和实际销售额的减少只是增加了。 东西变得更贵了,消费者试图维持他们以前的购买水平 但没能。 所以他们 减少。 他们因买得少但付得更多而受到打击。 最好的说法是他们 尝试 有弹性,但即使那样也无法完全保持他们以前的生活水平。

不包括汽车,每月 上升 也是1%, 配料 0.7% 的估计。

再一次,听起来经济似乎进展顺利,超过了经济学家估计的涨幅。 通过推断,人们可能会相信那些一直告诉我们经济强劲的经济学家知道他们在说什么。 但这都是通货膨胀的烟雾和镜子。 上个季度的 GDP 报告中将出现明显的下降,因为每个人的 GDP 数据都经过通货膨胀调整。 因此,当“实际 GDP”成为头条新闻时,零售业将成为负面因素。 通货膨胀调整后, 因为“生产”是以美元衡量的,其价值在通货膨胀下受到侵蚀, 真实 生产 会下降。 这不是衡量经济强劲的标准。

这几乎就像一场阴谋的雪仗。 以下是这篇文章中的常驻经济学家如何戴上玫瑰色眼镜并掩盖真相:

“1.0 月份零售额环比增长 XNUMX% 并没有看起来那么好, as 主要体现 价格飙升对名义销售价值的提振,”凯投宏观美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特写道。 “然而,考虑到价格飙升, XNUMX 月份的实际消费似乎大体上停滞不前。=

不! 不! 不! 它不是“主要反映”。 这完全是由于价格飙升。 不是“主要到期”。 完全。 这也是 不能 它是“不是 一样好 看起来。” 就是这样,如果您了解数学,那根本就不好! 这是坏的。 XNUMX 月份的“消费”似乎也没有“大体停滞”。 实际的 消费 似乎跌跌撞撞地从一座小山上跌落下来。 人们消费较少,但仍然为他们消费的东西支付更多费用。 而且,到目前为止,这一直是全年的趋势!

减少消费并不容易,因为我们这样做是因为我们 需要 在某种程度上,因为我们 喜欢 到那个水平以上。 所以,我们看到的是,如果人们想要保持自己的 预算 停滞不前; 但他们仍然削减......并且很可能用信用弥补了差额。

市场狂热

周五经济否认真正达到疯狂水平的地方是股市,因为投资者欣然接受了这个乳白色的垃圾:

然而,在上午的经济消息传出后,市场反弹,道琼斯工业平均指数在交易的前半小时上涨了 470 多点。 政府债券收益率走低。

报告称,到当天收盘时,“经济数据良好”,该指数上涨了 600 多点。 这是关于衰退和美联储将要做什么的坏消息,但投资者只看到了他们想看到的东西,因此睾丸激素驱动的情绪在当天推动了市场上涨(但现实会,正如它全年所做的那样,将其猛烈抨击回地球的尘埃,因为它最终不会被否认):

数字表示 1) 美联储甚至还没有开始控制通胀。 所以,2) 美联储将继续加紧收紧,甚至可能不得不加紧收紧。 但是 3) 消费者正在削减实际消费, 尽管他们为所消费的东西付出了更多。 4) 这就是为什么消费者信心处于历史最低点的原因。 与此同时,由于工资跟不上通货膨胀,银行账户在下降,即使债务在上升,消费者的购买力也会下降。 因此,公司销售前景变得更糟。 所有这些意味着 5) 经济衰退!

没有在转换时睡着的经济学家——比如罕见的大卫斯托克曼那种——会指出,所有这些加起来就是一场巨大的滞胀衰退。 在某个时候,如果人们足够努力地撤退(严重的需求破坏),我们可能会看到通货紧缩,但这还远不能确定,因为由于战争和制裁以及过去的 Covid 封锁和新的 Covid 封锁等等,可用供应的回落更加困难我会到下面。 因此,就目前的眼睛所见,这是通货膨胀和经济下滑!

正如本周公司报告中所看到的那样,这些数字也确实意味着,虽然销售额正在上升,因为它们是用通货紧缩的美元价值(通胀价格)来衡量的, 公司的利润越来越少。 他们正在降低盈利预期。 因此,我们看到摩根大通、摩根士丹利和富国银行本周报告的收益大幅下降,并看到摩根大通终止了所有股票回购。 这对投资者来说意味着坏消息,因为回购是股票估值的主要驱动力。 但是云台已经脱离了他们的指南针,因此将市场推高了 600 多点,如果您只是摘下太阳镜看一看,完全不知道这一切都将走向何方。

股票上涨是因为,“嘿,消息说零售业上涨了。 也许不会出现衰退!” 但同时(不协调地)“通货膨胀正炙手可热,因此美联储将不得不更加努力地收紧政策。” 只有他们只是方便地忽略了最近的消息,因为“销售额上升了”(不是。)

这些人必须把他们的大脑浸泡在泡菜缸里,因为那是经济衰退。 这叫做滞胀。 价格上涨,所以消费下降,当计算 GDP 的零售部分时,这将意味着(在所有虚假调整之前)GDP 下降了 0.3% 的差异。 消费量减少了 0.3 个百分点。

在通胀分数上,其他地方的消息指出,生产者价格上涨实际上年化率超过 11%,这表明零售商在利润方面损失了多少,因为他们仅将价格平均年化了 9.1%。 这清楚地表明消费者面临更多价格上涨的压力,因为零售商不太可能长期吸收差价。

底线: 今天的新闻没有好消息:

  • 销售额下降(经通胀调整)。
  • 因此,消费下降。
  • 因此,产量将下降。
  • 利润/收益下降。
  • 消费者情绪低迷。
  • 但价格上涨。
  • 这意味着美联储需要更加努力地收紧政策。
  • 经济衰退的现实已经渗透到零售销售中。
  • 因此,深度衰退的可能性 因为美联储正在收紧经济衰退 这已经发生了,而且他们甚至不知道,因为所有这些杰出的经济学家都在撒谎,他们撒谎了。

但是:

华尔街反弹势头强劲,道指飙升近600点设立的区域办事处外,我们在美国也开设了办事处,以便我们为当地客户提供更多的支持。“

我对市场如此愚蠢感到惊讶吗? 至少没有。 我只是在评论那是多么的无知,并指出这意味着市场仍将被迫面对它目前否认的惩罚性现实(因为它已被压回全年),因为我刚刚在那些要点 很长一段时间都不会松懈!

但关于市场为何上涨的光鲜总结:

由于交易员消化了一批新的银行收益和 强劲的经济数据, 这缓解了一些对美联储可能加息 100 个基点以抑制通胀上升的担忧。

首先,面对更高的通胀,为什么强劲的经济数据会缓解对美联储可能不得不加大加息力度的担忧? 这在表面上甚至没有意义! 谈论否认。 由于通胀如此火爆(据报道经济数据强劲),美联储退出加息的可能性为零(因为美联储似乎也相信数据也很强劲,因为它不断告诉我们“经济基本面强劲)。 即使美联储保持在预期的 75 个基点的加息幅度,市场也远未真正消化继续沿着加息路径走下去的后果。 我们必须在几个月内实现零通胀,才能将年通胀率降至 5%。
不过,“强劲的经济数据?” 哇!

证明已经在 GDPudding 中了

现在让我们看看最后一点,看看否认的程度有多深,因为衰退数据已经如此清晰,除非你真的睡着了,否则几乎不可能错过。

虽然我一整年都认为我们自第一季度以来一直处于衰退之中,但这些零售销售数字肯定会因实际下降(按 GDP 衡量)而显示衰退,尽管勇敢的经济学家仍然只是说我们可能已经……哦,衰退的可能性为 50% 后来 年内:

这是面对美联储数据的明显数据预测,这些数据清楚地表明我们现在正处于衰退之中。 以下是美联储对第二季度 GDPNow 估计的更新:

亚特兰大联储

在经历了两次被政府修正为更负面的第一季度之后,美联储一直在预测负面 第二 一个季度快一个月了。 事实上,他们只是根据上述零售数据略微下调了它。

然而,经济学家是这样说的:

美国经济陷入衰退的可能性现在已经接近 明年之内 持续和快速的通货膨胀使美联储更加大胆地追求更大的加息……根据彭博社对经济学家的最新月度调查……有 34 位经济学家回应了经济衰退的可能性。

雅虎

真的吗? 他们能做到这么大胆吗? “明年”的某个时候,我们可能会陷入衰退。 再次,哇! 这些人会像他们经常做的那样做,并预测我们正在走向衰退,就像它即将结束一样。 他们对我们所有人都毫无用处,就像骑兵在敌人离开一周后到达堡垒并发现每个人都已经死了一样。 谢谢你们的大胆和及时的服务。 事实上,这些小丑很可能会骑马进来,在他们的马鞍上倒退,而敌人在他们进来的路上就从他们身边骑过。

这是经济衰退的明显迹象 联系:

  • 我们已经经历了整整四分之一的负 GDP。
  • 美联储已经在预测另一个季度与上一个季度一样低。
  • 零售额正在下降。
  • 房屋销售现在开始下降。
  • 股票长期进入熊市。
  • 收益率曲线已经倒挂 两次 现在看起来特别奇特,显然无论如何都会迟到,因为它在美联储的收益率曲线控制下已经两年了,每个人都应该很容易意识到这一点。
  • 由于过去的 Covid 封锁,我们仍然存在许多供应线问题。
  • 新冠病毒再次呈上升趋势,威胁着新的封锁措施,尤其是在中国出现新的供应问题。
  • 由于乌克兰战争和制裁,我们已经面临许多额外的供应链问题。
  • 主要银行报告盈利能力大幅下降。
  • 其他公司正在下调收益。
  • 我们有一场全球性的重大能源危机,白手起家,但与 70 年代一样糟糕,如果不是更糟的话,所以我们又回到乞求阿拉伯人的缓刑。
  • 我们劳动力严重短缺,影响生产和运输。
  • 美联储终于迅速收紧。
  • 尽管如此,通胀还是上升了 再次 每年达到 9.1%,而
  • 生产者通胀现在正以两位数的速度飙升,迫使消费者价格进一步上涨。
  • 而消费者情绪已经 空前的.

......但所有经济学家都可以说“可能在一年内——可能——我们可能会陷入衰退。”

哇! 今年一定有大减价!

至于消费者情绪,如果你点击该列表最后一行提供的链接,你也会看到那篇文章, 完全掩埋了铅,把最显着的事实放在故事的深处——在最后三段。 (这些天是典型的扭曲金融新闻。)我会用它开场并把它作为我的头条新闻…… 因为它是历史新低。 他们为标题选择了什么? “通胀预期 稍微缓和设立的区域办事处外,我们在美国也开设了办事处,以便我们为当地客户提供更多的支持。“

他们最尖锐的警告只是,

“在这种环境下,我们看到了消费者支出紧缩的明显风险,而企业盈利能力下降意味着企业 开始 蹲下来,”奈特利说。 【ING首席国际经济学家】

哎呀,你觉得呢? 他一定是美国财政部长的顾问,他认为 QT 会像看着油漆干枯一样无聊; 在她(显然是过度延长的)一生中,永远不会有另一场金融危机; 通货膨胀是暂时的; 经济基本面强劲。 只是有点否认所有这些,也是吗?

经济学家下调第二季度预期 发展 年化率从上个月调查的预测中值 0.8% 下调至 3%。 预计今年下半年的增长率将低于 2%。

因此,综合以上所有因素,经济学家仍预测经济增长将接近 1%。 我想成为一名经济学家的好处是你对自己的努力领域一无所知(我想为什么他们称之为“努力”),所以每次经济衰退来临时都是错误的,并且仍然继续学术或企业经济分析方面的薪酬更高。 这些人在建筑物被夷为平地几个月后就掌握了预测地震的科学。

现在,杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)刚刚发布了绝对令人沮丧的公司银行报告,他用这些鲜明的术语总结了经济(在今年年初出色地宣称这是他所见过的“最强劲的经济体”):

地缘政治紧张、高通胀、消费者信心减弱、利率必须走多高的不确定性以及前所未有的量化紧缩及其对全球流动性的影响,再加上乌克兰战争及其对全球能源和食品的有害影响价格 极有可能对全球经济产生负面影响 有时在路上.

CNBC

为什么他们不会在今天……和昨天产生这些后果? 戴蒙注意到他周围的所有这些,继续声称,

经济继续 增长 就业市场和消费者支出,以及他们的消费能力, 保持健康.

根据什么?

但是, 致命一击:

根据摩根大通高管在财报电话会议上的评论,目前没有任何迹象表明美国经济正在进入衰退。

纳达的事情,是吧? 一点迹象都没有? 我刚刚列出的那些东西都不是标志?

繁重的劳动

正如戴蒙所说,劳动力市场似乎站稳脚跟。

啊,又来了,经济学家、美联储和戴蒙都依赖的旧就业谣言。 在我们显然不在正常参数范围内的时候,这些人似乎都没有精神弹性来将他们的大脑伸展到正常参数之外。 任何 正常参数。 几年前我们离开了正常世界。 我上面列出的一切都是不正常的——其中一些 高度 异常。

但是,首先,上面的金融作家抛出了以下内容,因为它是积极的:

与此同时,上个月的平均时薪同比增长 5.1%。

确定。 所以,我会这样写,因为我喜欢了解真相,“与此同时,平均小时工资再次比去年同期的通货膨胀率下降了 4%。” 这是我没有在我的列表中包含的另一个衰退因素,所以让我们考虑现在添加它。 工资落后于通货膨胀约 50%。 这意味着你比去年贫穷了 4%,即使你在过去一年中获得了平均小时工资增长。

现在让我们重新审视美联储和杰米戴蒙所依赖的作为“强劲经济”最可靠标志的东西——就业市场。

再一次,我们有这样一种情况,人们没有在异常情况下绞尽脑汁去理解,他们认为是经济实力的标志,在这种异常情况下实际上是非常严重和长期不适的标志。

通常,我会说“通常!” (想想 Foghorn Leghorn)低失业率和大量空缺工作的发生是因为经济发展如此之快,以至于雇主无法找到足够的员工来满足生产需求。

那不是,我说“不是!” 案子。 既然我们的大脑袋都无法掌握他们所谓的大脑袋现在的情况,让我为他们解释一下。

今天的就业形势与蓬勃发展的经济毫无关系。 所有这些工作都在那里空着,因为没有人想要它们。 曾经从事过这样工作的人不想工作。 这并不是就业市场强劲的迹象。 这是一个非常糟糕的就业市场的迹象。 这意味着劳动力市场不再能够或愿意提供劳动力。 这就是所谓的“破碎”。 是生产的意思 不能 增加,除了昂贵的自动化,这需要时间。 如果由于劳动力无法满足生产所需的角色而无法增加生产 使 产量增加,然后是国内生产总值 产品展示 不能增加。 如果 GDP 没有增加,但实际上由于劳动而下降 短缺,我们有一个词:“衰退”。

你真正看到的是严重的滞胀迹象。 生产下降是因为劳动力供应下降。 除了由于与新冠病毒和制裁相关的供应链中断而无法获得零件和材料外,制造商也无法获得工人。 这意味着国内生产总值必须下降。 这意味着由于稀缺性,价格可能会上涨更多。 从定义上讲,这是一场衰退,当它发生在由于全球稀缺而导致价格上涨时,就会出现滞胀性衰退。

底线是, 如果工人不重返工作岗位,生产者与消费者的比例仍将严重不足,这意味着我们所有想要消费它们的商品或服务将无法满足,这将迫使价格保持高位,即使经济不景气缩小 因为事情没有被生产出来,所以没有被购买,服务也没有被提供得那么丰富。

我们在这些劳动力数据中真正看到的是一个严重破碎的劳动力市场,它无法提供它应该提供的一件事。 当需求持续增长直到劳动力供应无法满足时,这就是经济火热导致的劳动力市场紧张。 当劳动力资源不断萎缩,直到无法满足较低的需求时,这就是劳动力市场薄弱,无法胜任工作……从字面上看。 经济学家需要用他们懒惰的大脑来思考这里实际发生的事情。 这不是一个“强劲的就业市场”。 这是一个破碎的就业市场。 这不是劳动力短缺,因为经济很热。 这是一种短缺,因为人们不想生产。

最重要的是,帮助世界摆脱大萧条的中国经济似乎也在滑向衰退,而中国的银行业正面临重大问题,很容易与那些这开始了美国的大衰退。

所以,相信你读到的一半,不要相信你从现代经济学家那里读到的,因为它们肯定不是灯泡抽屉里最亮的刀。

(从重新发布 美元崩盘 经作者或代表的许可)
 
• 类别: 经济学, 思想 •标签: 美国媒体, 通货膨胀, 失业 
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  1. Thanks for confirming our suspicions about the economy.

    Beijing is as well prepared to rescue the global markets as she will ever be. Labor force participation is 73%, compared to 61% in the US. The economy will grow \$1.3 trillion this year–more than most years, and more than any country in world history. So that’s all hunky-dory.

    We also know China has been preparing for another financial crisis since 2009, when the PBOC announced that it was looking for a reserve currency that would be free from the inevitable conflicts that arise when a national currency fails to serve both its domestic and its overseas markets simultaneously. As the dollar is failing to do right now. The IMF has issued precisely the central bank reserve currency the PBOC asked for, and every central bank on earth now uses it. So that’s hunky-dory, too.

    Then China itself has trillions saved in foreign currency, stores 70% of the world’s food reserves, has globe-spanning trade and security pacts with most countries, hundreds of thousands of domestic industries blossoming, and a national ‘to-do’ list through 2049.

    The Three Gorges Dam was once on Beijing’s to-do list because it was self-liquidating: it still repays its entire construction cost every 44 months. All projects on the to-do list have satisfied the Finance Ministry that they can pay off their bonds, for which pension funds have a bottomless appetite.

    So their dates could all be brought forward in a sequence and at a pace to support 8% GDP growth next year. At the end of the year China will have a bunch of shiny, new, productive assets that pay for themselves, and the gratitude of people everywhere.

    Another such rescue would be a peaceful challenge America’s coercive ‘leadership’.

    • 谢谢: Ann Nonny Mouse
    • 回复: @interesting
  2. Levtraro 说:

    Perhaps economists and reporters think that by giving a good spin to bad data they contribute to avoid additional bad outcomes. They are like physicians that do not tell a patient he has cancer because not thinking that he has cancer may cure cancer. For these brave new world philosophers the narrative is more influential than reality.

  3. I still do not understand why economics is a separate major in univerities. It should be a branch (a study program) of psychology. Economics is all about human behaviour. An economist is a psychologist in disguise.

    • 哈哈: Ann Nonny Mouse
  4. “I still do not understand why economics is a separate major in univerities. It should be a branch (a study program) of psychology. Economics is all about human behaviour. An economist is a psychologist in disguise.”

    I think you are confusing economics with advertising. Such as suggested by the author here. The sales against losses – economics — trying to make people feel better about an over loss, with little indication of relief . . . that’s advertising.

    Buy more . . . or rather charge more. and in this case it’s not really about the the people’s senses or the economy. It’s about the upcoming elections cycle.

  5. omegabooks 说:

    So economists and financial analysts are not the brightest fish in the sewer system, eh?

    STOP INSULTING FISH! Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah…

    It’s bad enough Commie Kammy insults hyenas and salad (“word salad,” eh?)

    • 哈哈: Ann Nonny Mouse
  6. Mr. Haggith, that was a very good take on 经济学家 and the rise in inflation, which is most certainly NOT going away anytime soon. The FED cannot raise (or let rise naturally, as in fold up the organization) interest rates to a level that will quell inflation. If they do, 2 very bad things will happen:

    1) The interest on the ~\$30,000,000,000,000 national debt will go from 5% of expenditures* at the current 1.1% or so net interest) to something near half the budget. Many more people will understand that this will never be paid.

    2) The stock market will crash due to people having actual non-risky places to invest their money (albeit still at a net loss due to inflation).

    Though you covered a lot, you could have mentioned that a significant portion of the stock market’s long rise has been inflation too. The 峰值愚蠢 blog has been all over the topic of 通货膨胀 for 5 years now. In no way has inflation run at the BLS-contrived 1-2% over the last 2 decades (before the recent huge increase). Calculations on food items, auto parts, insurance, utilities, building materials, you-name-it, usually come up with 4-5% rates over the last 20 to 30 years, with compounding taken into account.

    Finally, I liked this post, but could you PLEASE, next time, put in graphs with numbered x-axes and with y-axes that start at 0! Thank you.

    .

    * This stuff if right there in 2 pie charts near the back of the IRS .pdf 1040 instruction book.

    • 同意: Almost Missouri
    • 谢谢: Agent76
    • 回复: @Agent76
  7. RoatanBill 说:

    Economists are whores for the bankers and gov’t. All their degrees should be rescinded for fraud.

    • 同意: CSFurious, CelestiaQuesta
  8. Miro23 说:
    @Kim Jong Il

    I still do not understand why economics is a separate major in universities. It should be a branch (a study program) of psychology. Economics is all about human behaviour. An economist is a psychologist in disguise.

    Agree with that. And the most reliable rule in psychology is that past behaviour is the best guide to future behaviour.

    So if a person habitually gets into debt to “own” goods that they don’t have enough money to buy, then they’re likely to continue operating on credit.

    Result that over time they pay a lot more for everything. But how can that be?

    The economics profession assumes perfect information and rational monetary maximizing behaviour. Psychology predicts “I want it now” and “I can meet the monthly payment”.

  9. Anon[284]• 免责声明 说:

    Make an allowance for inflationary expectations ( ie people buying now because it’s only going to get more expensive later ) and it’s very likely that underlying real demand is down 3-4%

    Also make a demographic allowance for the big wave of Millenians in prime household formation time. They ain‘t buying squat. BAM ! That’s gotta hurt

    • 同意: Kali
    • 回复: @Mario Partisan
  10. GMC 说:

    If You can’t dazzle them with Brilliance – Baffle them with Bull Shit – WC Fields had it 100% right. Except the Bull Shit is going to be a whole lot more Theft and lies..

  11. Franz 说:

    I still do not understand why economics is a separate major in univerities.

    足够真实。

    Economics was, originally, just a subset of history. And history would be telling our hot shots a lot right now. Like where did V.I. Lenin and Benito Mussolini get traction? Because back in their most critical time the bankers in Europe were doing what ours are doing NOW.

    Communism and Socialism and Fascism are just words. They get charged up when working people get treated like disposable commodities.

    • 同意: Swaytonious
    • 谢谢: Mario Partisan
  12. Capital is dead labor, which, vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks.

    - 卡尔·马克思

  13. wow.. a bit angry are you ? If anyone uses ‘news’ as a criteria for investing, they are looking at the wrong thing. We need to study the stock market itself, forget about trying to relate its movements to the economy.

    • 回复: @Anonymous
  14. Passing By 说:

    Most people can’t do advanced math but most people can do basic arithmetics so most people can be fooled by percentages because most people reason in absolute numbers. At the end of the month, they don’t say my spendings are ##% higher or lower than my earnings, they say we are that much short or we have that much left.
    Analysts are not stupid, they are devious. Their numbers’ purpose, their whole pilpul’s purpose isn’t to make the Smiths understand what’s going on, it is to make them believe that if they’re having a hard time, it’s their own fault, they didn’t work hard enough, others are doing much better, like the Joneses next door, and billionaires are rich because they deserve it. If analysts told the naked truth, the Smiths would know that most of the country is in the same position and wouldn’t have to keep appearances to not give the Joneses the satisfaction of being more successful.
    Instead of inciting guilt and jealousy, analysts may make the Smiths and the Joneses realise that they’re in the same boat and God forbid what could happen if everybody knew.

  15. Thomasina 说:

    Milton Friedman: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

    The economy has been on life support since 2008 (through QE and the artificial suppression of interest rates). In fact, you can go all the way back to 1987 (Greenspan) and the parade of clowns that followed him. Dial manipulators, all of them.

    These guys are not stupid, and the economists the author cites (along with mainstream journalists) are not stupid either. They massage the truth in order to elicit a particular outcome for their elite paymasters. If they didn’t, they’d lose their jobs. Everything is engineered and manufactured, and they all know it.

    They have desperately been trying to manufacture inflation for years now, and both Covid and the Ukraine war miraculously appeared to provide the necessary fuel for this to take place. Almost as if by design – or magic – or something.

    Trillions of dollars were pumped into the worldwide economy during Covid. It’s not done sloshing.

    • 同意: CelestiaQuesta
    • 回复: @James Scott
    , @JM
  16. JR Foley 说:

    Economics is now a pseudo-science –opinion over fact. Print money like no tomorrow –load up the Debt and get everyone into a house—of cards.

  17. SafeNow 说:

    The economist/analyst being interviewed is a whore. He reasons, quite correctly, that by his sounding upbeat, some viewers will send business their way. Viewers will think, Ah-ha! This guy from XYZ Financial…his company knows the secrets. The Madoff principle.

    • 回复: @Irish Savant
  18. Biff 说:

    Economists are pig lipstick artisans.

  19. anon[980]• 免责声明 说:

    Economists are all of hive mind and all subscribe to the eternal growth model. If your company/country/income is not growing then it’s “stagnating”, which can only lead to decline. And how to grow? The answer is always the same: more immigration! Which means not just more cheap labor, but more customers. Robots may do the work but they don’t buy more stuff. I have long thought the magazine “经济学家” should rename itself 全球主义者.

    Only economists could come up with the notion that a country of 1.4 billion people could “run out” of workers and “grow old before it gets rich”. To an economist, there’s no such thing as “too many people”, just like there’s no such thing as “too much money”. And btw, they also think all people are interchangeable, after all, we are all just consumers.

    It’s why we’re also told a 2% inflation is a “natural” thing, prices can only go up, never go down, never mind that most of the world saw zero inflation until economists and finance became a profession.

    Swindlers and liars all, like all lawyers, psychologists, sociologists, academics, journalists. Not surprising if you think about which group makes up the biggest group behind all these professions.

    • 回复: @RoatanBill
    , @Anon
  20. You’re confusing the politically driven financial reporting used to justify stupid economic policies from pure economics and independent economists, many of whom get their voices out through the media warning of the disastrous consequences of the government’s policies – like the free money give-away that triggered this inflation. It’s shooting fish in a barrel to criticize the lies the administration puts out to justify its failings. It’s harder to find the voices of reason and listen to them.

    You’ve obviously never studied economics, or much of anything else if you don’t know the difference between “site” and “sight”. Charts alone can’t make you appear smart. But you’ve got your soapbox on the commons and a small crowd gathers.

    • 同意: Chuck Orloski
  21. Jimmy1969 说:

    An Economist is the only profession where you never have to be right.

    • 回复: @SteveK9
    , @Ben Sampson
  22. Jimmy1969 说:

    Dave I note your screen writing certificate and your degree in English Lit. Could you imagine if you applied for any beginners job at any bank or brokerage house or research organization requiring at least one course in economics. You would be sent a tape of canned laughter.

  23. This was fun but they’re not stupid, certainly not that stupid. Malicious? Deceitful? Criminal? You bet. So what’s the real purpose of all the lying?

    • 回复: @Astuteobservor II
  24. anon[122]• 免责声明 说:

    The stock market didn’t rally on the “good news” – that read on the market move is just more bad fin writing. But the truth of what DOES drive a rally like this is actually funnier.

    You see, the market rallied on the BAD NEWS because BAD NEWS means the FED “must” scale back its QT and % increases. BAD NEWS = GOOD NEWS. And this “bad is good” algo has been the driving force in the market for at least 14 years (since the “GFC”).

    It’s just another manifestation of inverted (((reality))).

  25. SteveK9 说:
    @Jimmy1969

    There are many others. In fact, it is hard these days in the US to find any profession where the practitioners are held accountable. Media, Medical/Pharma, Military/Industrial, Political, ….

    • 回复: @jimmy1969
  26. @RoatanBill

    Yeah, I think the common thread here is that these economists make absurdly optimistic statements when the Dem establishment is firmly in control, and then go into reverse when the anti-establishment appears to be in control.

  27. RoatanBill 说:
    @anon

    All the bogus disciplines under the general headings of humanities and social sciences can be completely debunked with one or both of two phrases.
    1) Prove it.
    2) So what?

    Economics just requires option #1 since they can’t prove anything and can’t even do a post mortem on some economic failure so it won’t repeat. There is no singular economics, but various “schools” of this fraud that don’t agree with each other and hence the clique that manages to get control via gov’t gets to implement their theories that eventually produce the booms and busts we are all familiar with.

    An examination of all the disciplines that the humanities and social sciences represent reveals that they are all just opinions of the priests of their various religions. They invent a story that sounds plausible to a weak mind and then label it as some revelation to the masses that eat it up. Truth be told, the people that venture into these faux fields are too stupid to make it through a STEM curriculum and need to use fraud for their livelihood.

    The humanities and social sciences produce the charlatans in the society that cause all the harm by stating theories as truth when those theories are just opinions they hold with intensity, completely lacking any empirical evidence. They all need to be restricted to at maximum awarding bachelor degrees on the off chance that they may lead to something in the next thousand years. Preferably, they are all discredited as phrenology was discredited long ago.

    • 同意: Realist
  28. This article’s headline “Economists and Financial Analysts Are Not the Brightest Fish in the Sewer System” struck me as a self-evident truth.

    All the rest was just a blur to me.

  29. Not all economists are shills.

  30. “They invent a story that sounds plausible to a weak mind and then label it as some revelation to the masses that eat it up. Truth be told, the people that venture into these faux fields are too stupid to make it through a STEM curriculum and need to use fraud for their livelihood.”

    Ohhh goodness gracious good luck explaining the above to the numerous mathematicians, , engineers, and physicists that have and are utilizing their skills designing calculations making product and monetary predictions regarding money to the tenth decimal point or smaller.

    Economists are not designing the derivative formulas so so complex regulators have essentially thrown up their hands.

    The GDP formulas as absolutely foundationally flawed as they are were not designed and manipulated by economists alone, but by rocket scientists, mathematicians and businesses analysis.

    • 回复: @EliteCommInc.
  31. Jim H 说:

    ‘Retail sales rose 1% in June, slightly better than the 0.9% estimate. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation …’ — quoted by David Haggith

    Dave, my man, why not save a wheelbarrow load of pixels and just post the FRED graph of RRSFS (real retail and food service sales)?

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS

    It reached its high fifteen months ago 在3月2021。

    End of story; says it all.

  32. CSFurious 说:

    My household income is well over \$200,000 per year and I am already starting to cut back. I cannot imagine what it will be like for Americans who make much less.

  33. jimmy1969 说:
    @SteveK9

    Steve that is not true. There are many professions including Pharmacists and Doctors and Dentists and Engineers where you almost always have to be right. Even a grocery store manager can be ruined over a food poisoning out break or a car salesman mis representing his product. Lots of professionals can be sued or held accountable by their respective organizations. Economists however are never sued or rarely ruined. Likewise with the media. I made a career out of badmouthing Carl Bernstein and dozens of Washington Post reporters over their comments about Donald Trump, who from the first day of his campaign in 2016, they all repeatedly said had no chance.

  34. Anon[315]• 免责声明 说:

    经济学家和金融分析师不是下水道系统中最聪明的鱼

    The usual denizens in most sewer systems are rats and cockroaches. A more apt comparison to economists and financial analysts. Both are a curse on mankind.

    Most fish on the other hand, are either quite beautiful or tasty.

  35. Brad Anbro 说:

    Mr. Haggith:

    Your title to this column suggests that you “paint with a pretty broad brush.” Three economists immediately come to mind, who, in my opinion, and what I have read from them, are William K. Black, J.D., Ph.D., Michael Hudson, Ph.D. and Ha-Joon Chang, Ph.D.

  36. Our constitutional Republic experiment, herein known as the USA, at this present time in history, has failed. Not by fault of our sacred constitutional document, but by those undermining its oath to the American people.

    Just one look at government in action in house, senate and within the tentacles of DC, you can’t help but notice the separation between government and the people they’re supposed to represent.

    We are at moment governed by leadership obsessed with GlobalHomo, Holocaust Survivor Hysteria, and Magic Negro Syndrome that threatens the very fabric of civilization.

    In there quest to impose GlobalHomo/Holocaust Survivor Hysteria/Magic Negro Syndrome upon the world, they unsuspectingly unleash the greatest armies of humanity against them.

    They are losing and they know it.

  37. @RoatanBill

    Economists are more closely related to Zionist. They’re like hebs counting body humps at a wailing wall that’s been kissed by a billion filthy lips spreading ancient pathogens around the world with impunity.

    The sickness is how they think and count, it’s (((hereditary))).

  38. @Thomasina

    They are not trying to manufacture inflation. Inflation is the result of their scam. Covid and Russia are vectors to create wealth so the money to pay the interest to keep the whole thing going will exist.

    • 回复: @Thomasina
  39. For thousands of years they worshipped the pot of gold, until the ancient virus consumed itself, jumping from host to host, killing it’s gold standard protection shield, as it annihilates economies around the world with toxic juke bonds and worthless paper that dissolves into grains of sand lost in time.
    Quote from ‘Cosmic Thieves’ – Book of Universal Truths by CQ

    Not really, I’ve never written a book. I’ve read a couple once or twice.

  40. Anonymous[771]• 免责声明 说:
    @Bill Jones

    Mises is not a psychologist, but a praxeologist. That is a very important distinction.

  41. @Godfree Roberts

    Something bad must be going on In China. I can tell when something is up on China when the China bullish trolls are all over the internet.

    Does the CCP pay you by the word or the post? Asking for a friend.

  42. Thomasina 说:
    @James Scott

    Yes, to keep the whole thing going. I think we’re on the same page.

  43. JM 说:
    @Thomasina

    They have desperately been trying to manufacture inflation for years now, and both Covid and the Ukraine war miraculously appeared to provide the necessary fuel for this to take place. Almost as if by design – or magic – or something.

    So true. Despite all the downsides, globalisation of production, by driving down the prices of commodities, by harnessing the long bottled up Asiatic component of the international division of labor and putting a lid on Western wage rates, destroyed the basis of a vital policy instrument of economists by bringing into line the excessively issued money of their masters with goods, of course at the expense of the masses of less favorably placed people who now pay for the policy decisions made to bail out the capitalist oligarchy.

  44. The great business is to say the most convenient. Economics may be a science, but saying what pays the best is an art. Business are business.

  45. Agent76 说:

    July 16, 2022 The Cult of Globalism: The Great Reset and Its “Final Solution” for “Useless People”

    The idea of the Great Reset derives from the New World Order which is still alive in the minds of the establishment or who we can call the globalists from people like Henry Kissinger to the current US president, Joe Biden. Of course there are many others on the top levels of the pyramid whose ideas range from establishing a police state, to implanting microchips the day we are born to track and trace us, to depopulating the planet. I know it all sounds insane but that’s what the globalists have planned for us for a very long time.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/cult-globalism-great-reset-final-solution-useless-people/5784969

  46. Agent76 说:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Good share Newman. The most accurate speech on and about banking you will ever hear. May 21, 2013 Why the whole banking system is a scam

    戈弗雷·布鲁姆(Godfrey Bloom)环境保护部•欧洲议会,斯特拉斯堡,21年2013月XNUMX日•演讲者:戈德弗雷·布鲁姆(UKIP)环境保护部(约克郡和林肯郡)

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  47. May I suggest a change to the title?

    “Economists and Financial Analysts are the Brightest Fish in the Sewer System and That Should Terrify You.”

  48. FKA Max 说: • 您的网站
    @interesting

    “Something bad must be going on In China. I can tell when something is up on China when the China bullish trolls are all over the internet.”

    你是绝对正确的!

    “To put things in perspective, the Chinese real estate market is the biggest single asset class in the world with an estimated market value of roughly \$55 trillion (as per Dec 2021).

    Larger than the US stock market.

    Chinese real estate output just shrank by 7% YoY in Q2.” – Jul 18, 2022 · 6:38 PM UTC https://nitter.net/MacroAlf/status/1549101193955143680#m

    Some of China’s and Hong Kong’s financial warning indicators have been flashing red for a while:

    Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family
    20 2018三月
    https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1803e.htm or https://archive.ph/n0Jdg

    Aggregate credit indicators point to vulnerabilities in several jurisdictions (Table 4, first two columns). Canada, China and Hong Kong SAR stand out, with both the credit-to-GDP gap and the DSR flashing red.


    China: The Greatest Bubble in History

    14月 2013日,XNUMX
    Harry Dent explains how the property bubble in China is putting over 220 million Chinese at risk.

    • 谢谢: Kali
    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  49. @Kim Jong Il

    Kim Jong Il says:
    I still do not understand why economics is a separate major in univerities. It should be a branch (a study program) of psychology. Economics is all about human behaviour. An economist is a psychologist in disguise.

    Face_The_Truth 写道:

    Psychology is based on attempts to scientifically measure of human behavior(s) whereas Economics has no science in it.

    Science means measurement and, if there is no measurement, there is no science.

    Economics deals with human behavior(s), which is(are) not rational in nature.

    For example, Economics says that, if Coca-Cola prices are up and Pepsi-Cola prices are down, people will buy Pepsi-Cola; but in reality, people do buy more Coca-Cola.

    Psychology says that, if a man digs a hole whole day and the next day that same man hires another fellow to fill up the hole, that proves the man’s poor cognitive reasoning function.

    But, Economics says that, if a man digs a hole whole day and the next day that man hires another fellow to fill up the same hole, that is pure economic activity.

    • 回复: @Mario Partisan
  50. Economists are not just useless, they are worse than useless. Yet it seems to make no difference to their careers. Those who adamantly assured us that the Irish economy was in no risk whatsoever of recession in 2008 are still trotted out today and glean respectful attention. Paul Krugman once insisted that computers would have no more significance than the fax machine. He got a Nobel Prize.

  51. @TheQuieterOne

    Because the market operates on emotions somewhat. Bad news or numbers could push the market over the cliff.

  52. Stagflation – you can graph it all you like, but, it began (in earnest) in the early 1970’s, and never really changed to anything substantially different for any significant amount of time. That oil embargo thing was the topping on the cake baked up with stunting of laying natural gas pipelines, mid 1950’s. Read newspapers from that time – you’ll see. Coal producing states doubtlless did have something to do with it. Those zillions of households converting from coal to gas (faster than they could pipe it) around 1950, caused a huge exodus from W Va and Pennsylvania. Many burgs in W Va became permanent ghost towns.

    I remember that blabbermouth (I forget his name) who set out to expose that fact about natural gas and that it’s everywhere in copious amounts widely available (if only those “greedy pigs” would step out of the way) and was found on a rural road in Iowa with his head blown off (1974, I think it was).

    So, the oil charade has kept going on for 60+ years and they still keep it hush hush. Lotta good your biz & econ degrees did, eh?. The Gen Y’s & Z’s should thank their lucky stars those boomers obsessed with their mortgages paid off, are now getting past their “sell by” date.

  53. 加利福尼亚州洛杉矶。
    High-Performance Economic Street Crime Engine.
    Firing On All Cylinders (July 11, 2022 – July 17, 2022).
    U.S. Stagflation Will Soon Install Its Supercharger.
    https://www.crimemapping.com/map/ca/losangeles

  54. @Face_The_Truth

    An Econ professor and a grad student are walking in a park when the prof sees a dog turd on the ground.

    He says to the grad student, I’ll give you \$50 if you eat that turd. Grad student agrees.

    Half an hour later the grad student sees a turd and offers the prof \$50 to eat it. Prof agrees.

    The student then says: what the heck was the point of that? Neither of us has any more money but we’ve both eaten shit.

    Prof says: my son, you are overlooking the fact that we just benefited from \$100 worth of trade.

    • 回复: @Achmed E. Newman
  55. Anonymous[929]• 免责声明 说:
    @cd of central FL

    Sorry, but studying the stock market is a fool’s errand. Have a look at the book about Jim Cramer, 与敌人交易, by Nicolas Maier, an insider Jew himself. In it, Maier recounts how Cramer would get calls from “the brain” at CNBC, another Jew named David Faber, tipping Cramer off to market-moving stories coming up on CNBC so Cramer could go through this elaborate deceit to front run the market without detection, and all on behalf of Jewish socialists who financed him in the first place.

    According to Maier, Cramer also got calls from the big name Jewish stock analysts, tipping him off to the changes in their ratings before they were made public so he could front run those, too. The markets are pure manipulation by Jews. Everything else is a smokescreen deflecting attention from the Cramers behind the trades. If you don’t know this about Wall Street, you’re a babe in the woods.

  56. Petermx 说:

    I believe this article is accurate and it is in agreement with the podcasts of economists I watch, maybe partially because I watch George Gammon’s podcasts who the author also has on his website. I am influenced by the people I consider knowledgeable when I say that the next few years, maybe the next 12 to 24 months could be another watershed in history, such as 1989 to 1991 were and 1945 was.

    I think some people are starting to realize but only starting to realize the rise of China and other east Asian countries and how they are surpassing the west, the USA and Europe. It’s been going on for decades and is now obvious for some people. Just as the CIA failed to recognize the USSR was going to collapse until it happened you hear very little about the rise of China and east Asia which is now becoming obvious. I have seen some reports on the rise of China on FOX but these sound more like complaints that the USA is losing the competition and the reports are hostile to China, suggesting FOX is not open to international competition and let the most competitive country win. This thinking is more aligned with Great Britain’s thinking in the first half of the 20th century, which is ignored when discussing who was responsible for WW I and WW II, that Germany must be smashed because it is too strong and too competitive. Germany had already surpassed Great Britain. Europe too appears to have their hands covering their ears and eyes and sees nothing going on. Europe, the continent that led the world for so long. Maybe when it’s all done and the USA and Europe are clearly second class societies with second class standards of living an honest analysis might become public of what went wrong but if history is any indication, the truth will be covered up in favor of something that is easier to swallow and will cover up for those responsible for the decline of the west.

  57. @interesting

    Bullish? Troll?

    Do you have inside information about China or are you, like most Westerners, uninformed about the country?

    Are you really unaware that China has surpassed us in almost every field of endeavor and that there are now more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, illiterate, and imprisoned citizens in America than in China.

    Unaware of China’s economic track record?

    • 谢谢: Ann Nonny Mouse
  58. vox4non 说:

    To be fair, not all economists are useless or shills like the current lot we see on screen or in print. Many forget that prior to modern economics, classical economists like Adam Smith paved the way for efficient demand-supply and industrialisation.

    Many also forget who provides the shills the platform. Surely, the oligarchs and vested interests wouldn’t want a public to be properly informed. Just as we have been aggressively propagandised on ideology; we are constantly fed drivel and “economically-sound” policies.

    To shore up that support and ensure a constant conveyor belt of the “right” type of economists, guess what kind of economics are taught in most universities with the appropriate funding from the vested interests? Even the rigour of mathematics and measurement in economic modelling has been downgraded. Contrarian theories are rarely, if at all, taught.

    Hence, how many of the larger public have heard of Ludwig von Mises or the Austrian school? While the Austrian school is far from perfect, it has sounded warnings over malinvestment and ideology-over-rational policies.

    Thus, we are left in today’s sorry state where the shills have become the only voices that people hear and are rightly disillusioned about their aptitude. Sadly, by guilt of association, many people have painted all economists with the same brush. If this attitude persists, then good young people capable of making an impact will get discouraged and like Gresham’s law, bad economists will drive out good ones.

    • 同意: Doctor, My Eyes
    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  59. Avianthro 说:

    Haggith and Hudson are my nominees for the President’s chief economic advisors.

    Another small point, but one that may be significant at times: As an engineering type, I know that statistics-measurements need to be presented with error bars-tolerances. Just what are those for the stats we get from the Fed on various parameters?

    Well, we all should have known this inflation was coming as the result of the covid stimulus printing press runs…Look at the Fed’s stats for money supply vs GDP. A lot of that (how much exactly?) surely wound-up accumulating in price increases for the assets markets (real estate and stocks). A lot of it went into the economy right away acting as the stimulus it was meant to be, moving a little bit more energy and resources into circulation, but this was surely a temporary effect, and once the stimulus money stopped flowing, this slowed down greatly. Some of it must have gone into savings accounts, and a lot of that will now be pulled-out to pay the bills for those who still have no work and to cover inflated prices in our COL. Alright, so, we have to destroy this funny money (and/or get the real economy stimulated) enough of it to get inflation back down, but now because of inflation, there is also some slowing-up of spending, reducing the flow rate of the funny money being pulled-out of savings accounts, creating recession when what we need is real growth stimulus. The Fed’s rate tightening may force a bit of that saved funny money out of the banks too? Of course, some of it has already been destroyed by market pricing adjustments-drops back to reality, and more of that may yet lie ahead. It’s a complex situation that probably no one can predict, at least certainly no better than most of our meteorological predictions.

    Bottom line: The pain’s not going away soon, and the whole situation is the result of extremely poor policy decisions connected with covid, or ultimately perhaps because of some Neocon types in the deep state deciding that it would be a good idea to unleash a bioweapon in Wuhan? Or, was it a SPECTRE acting for the WEF (WEF is SPECTRE?) to get the Great Reset moving a bit faster?

    Might as well stick with “Chance the Gardener…Chauncy Gardner (“Being There”)” when it comes to trying to make precise economic predictions.

  60. nsa 说:

    Just the facts, ma’am…….Joe Friday, Dragnet.
    1) Yield curve inversion (2 yr vs 10 yr bonds) has reliably indicated the last 6 out of 6 recessions. The yield curve inverted back in March 2020,
    2) Inflation has never been curbed without the FFR (federal funds interbank lending rate) exceeding the YOY CPI rate at some point.
    3) The real interest rate (FFR – YOY CPI) has never been this severely negative (NIRP) in the last 70 years.

  61. Anon[232]• 免责声明 说:

    This author is in need of a copy editor. I was able to make it through a few paragraphs but the contrast between said author’s disdain for sham (all?) economiats, implicitly rooted in his superior intelligence, and his inability to string words together, properly, was too painful to bear. Everybody is an idiot, I guess.

  62. The US dollar has lost 97% of its buying power since passage of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The Federal Reserve System is a private banking cartel and makes its money on interest from the federal debt. Government debt has driven all the wars of the US since then. The bankers lend to all sides of any conflict, so presumably profit, no matter which sides win or lose.

    Russia and China have reverted to gold-backed currency, which is why Western nations are so afraid of them. The dollar will not be able to compete on the world market when stronger currencies are available.

  63. @interesting

    You racist Sinophobes have been predicting China’s ‘fall’ with slobbering relish for over forty years, and you’ve been wrong EVERY time, but that just makes you more racially rage driven. Those ‘goddammed gooks’ just keep getting richer, smarter, more productive and the ‘Exceptionals’ can do NOTHING about it. China is NOT Grenada, the slums of Panama City, Iraq or Afghanistan, and don’t you HATE it! Stew in your bitter bile.

  64. @FKA Max

    2013!!!??? Taking a long time to come to fruition, isn’t it? Go on-keep those hate juices a bubbling. It’ll eat you up as China does not ‘fall’, as you race-haters so fervently wish, but goes from strength to strength and leaves the Holy West far behind, its streets awash with human faeces, its cities descending into barbarism, its infrastructure crumbling and riven by partisan political HATRED. Enjoy it all-you’re worth it!

    • 回复: @FKA Max
  65. @vox4non

    The culture that pays extreme attention to the pseudo-science of ‘economics’, but ignores the real science of ecology and the habitability of this planet for our species, deserves what it is getting, and what is getting worse and worse, by the day. The society that thinks that the ecology is a sub-set of the economy, not vice versa, has a death wish.

    • 回复: @vox4non
  66. @SafeNow

    “The economist/analyst being interviewed is a whore. ”

    They all are. Else they wouldn’t find employment.

  67. @Mario Partisan

    LOL!

    Great one, Mario! I will try my best to remember this joke. Better yet, this belongs on Peak Stupidity along with a post on what the GDP is really about.

    非常感谢。

    • 谢谢: Mario Partisan
  68. @Agent76

    I’ve seen this one before, but thank you for the refreshing refresher on big banking, Agent. That was a nice job of summing it all up in 2 minutes!

  69. FKA Max 说: • 您的网站
    @mulga mumblebrain

    This isn’t just about China. Since we live in a globalized and interconnected world, everyone is affected, but not equally. Here in the U.S. around \$16 trillion of “wealth” has already gone up in smoke:

    As the equity market experienced a severe drawdown and bonds couldn’t serve as a portfolio hedge in this environment, we just witnessed the largest ever ‘‘financial wealth’’ destruction in history.
    [...]
    Even without factoring in crypto and other asset classes, US bonds and equities markets combined have experienced a drawdown from previous peak of about \$15.5 trillion (or 60% of GDP).
    Just. Huge.

    https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/time-for-bonds#details or https://archive.ph/Orzuh#selection-967.0-1015.11

    Less wealth in the wealthy West means less consumption and consumer demand for goods and services, which means fewer exports, less tourism and therefore higher unemployment in the developing, non-Western world.

    Harry Dent estimates that there is about \$400 trillion of “wealth” currently in the world, and he expects that about \$130 trillion of that will likely get wiped out in the current, continuing and still coming global financial deleveraging/deflation or economic depression.

    We are about down let’s say -\$30 trillion so far in this deleveraging/deflation, so there is another -\$100 trillion to go globally. I expect a big chunk of that remaining -\$100 trillion to come from the Chinese property sector. Let’s say -\$30 trillion. That would mean a -55% drop (from \$55 trillion to about \$25 trillion) in Chinese real estate values.

    This still leaves us with another -\$70 trillion of asset values, that need to be deleveraged, deflated or possibly defaulted on.

    The remaining -\$70 trillion will likely be a combination of crashes in the Western (North American and European) and East Asian (Japanese and South Korean) bond, stock and real estate markets, plus some other emerging economies and capital markets, but most of global financial wealth is concentrated in the West, China and Japan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

    下一次全球银行危机会在韩国开始吗? – 欧洲美元大学,EP。 219
    20年2022月XNUMX日
    The Economist worries that South Korea is mimicking 1980s’ Japan—before the bust and lost decades; they may be right. The Bank for International Settlements’ five early warning indicators show Korea has tripped ALL FIVE thresholds!

    • 回复: @mulga mumblebrain
  70. @Anon

    Residential Construction report out today for June – Single Family permits and starts down big, offset by a rise in multiple units.

    Out yesterday was Home Builder sentiment for this month – largest month over month drop outside of 2020 lockdowns, with steep drops across all regions .

    The residential real estate market has been one of the few green shoots in the economy since 2020 but it’s starting to give.

    I don’t give investment advice, but SPY hit above \$390 today. My short term target price is \$360. Time to short in my humble opinion.

  71. @FKA Max

    Ninety percent is imaginary ‘wealth’, financialised hocus-pocus, held by parasites. The REAL wealth of the planet is the living bio-systems that ensure human survival, and they are going up in smoke as the Pyrocene Age rapidly consumes the thin, living, skin of the planet. Which, intermittently, gets flooded or drowned and washed away in deluges. THAT is where we will meet our Fate, long ordained, and pursued with manic fervour.

    • 回复: @Anon
    , @FKA Max
  72. Anon[194]• 免责声明 说:
    @anon

    “Not surprising if you think about which group makes up the biggest group behind all these professions.”

    阿米什人?

  73. Anon[194]• 免责声明 说:
    @mulga mumblebrain

    Are you in love with Greta?

    Stop drinking the Green Kool-Aid.

  74. Anon[304]• 免责声明 说:

    Keep taxes down, niggers out, and Big Line up.

    The rest is noise.

    Kids can twerk, drag queens cavort, and neocons nuke for all I care.

  75. Anon[370]• 免责声明 说:

    Haggith is a moron.

    For 50 years, the economic neocons like (((Milton Friedman))) screeched the same line: “Bad number isn’t going down, it’s only going up at a slower rate!” This revelation was supposed to hit with the force of a lightning bolt, and for the gullible goyim of the 1970s/1980s, it did.

    But we have seen through economic neoconservatism, I mean those of us who have been around since the ’70s. And Haggith is fishing in stale waters. Maybe, having nothing better to do in his backwater, he perused a tattered book by Bill Simon or Robert Ringer or even Milton himself that was gathering dust on his daddy’s bookshelf and thought, “This is really hot stuff!” Jewish lightning strikes again. Damn those Keynesians!

    What are we gonna do with these kids, eh?

    The truth, of course, is that Haggith gives economists too much respect. They deserve none at all. They are shills for power, mouthpieces of The Powers that Be. *But this includes the Friedmanites, Reaganites, Thatcherites, and Ron Paulites, too.* All their neoconservative theories and tropes were mere propaganda intended solely to put over the neoliberal revolution of 1970-2000, and they did so. And look where we are now.

    Pull your head out, Haggith, or next you’ll be screaming like an austerity boy about “the national debt!!!” like that’s a real thing.

  76. FKA Max 说: • 您的网站
    @mulga mumblebrain

    那里没有分歧。

    A global economic depression and financial deleveraging/deflation are necessary in order to restore the health of financial and eco systems, and to protect our planet’s biodiversity by preventing continued species and habitat extinction, global warming, etc.

    In that regard “Japanification” and the slowdown in money velocity/commercial bank lending are highly welcome developments and trends:

    9 Japanification Infects Planet Earth
    15年2020月XNUMX日
    Dr. Milton Friedman, in a December 1997 article, correctly diagnosed what was wrong with the Japanese economy: not enough money. His prescription? Quantitative easing. It was, unfortunately, malpractice. In late April 2020, the Bank of Japan announced its 24th iteration of it.

    [更多]

    Friedman’s famous phrase that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” would only hold if the central bank’s liabilities were legal tender. But, for that to happen the Federal Reserve Act would need to be rewritten and that is very unlikely, even more so in front of the Congressional elections in 2022.https://mishtalk.com/economics/lacy-hunt-on-debt-and-friedmans-famous-quote-regarding-inflation-and-money or https://web.archive.org/web/20210724010232/https://mishtalk.com/economics/lacy-hunt-on-debt-and-friedmans-famous-quote-regarding-inflation-and-money

    • 回复: @FKA Max
  77. vox4non 说:
    @mulga mumblebrain

    True, actual science is being replaced with false ideology. Unfortunately, the false ideology being promoted is for the benefit of the oligarchs, and society suffers. Too bad that there are numerous cheerleaders from the group that will be most badly affected, thanks to the sell-out MSM.

  78. Kali 说:

    Sounds to me like the workers, layed off by “the covids” (or covidiots if you prefer), have decided to return to nature, to grow food and to get off grid.

    Of course this is pure speculation on my part (it would be interesting to see the data pertaining to sales of gardening/farming supplies, as well as those of batteries and solar/wind micro systems), but my speculation is backed somewhat by my own observations here in rural Portugal, were the imigrant/expat community (from across northen Europe as well as “israel”/occupied Palestine (truly, the place is flooding with israeli’s seeking a “normal life”. No Palistinians have managed the jouney so far, saddly.)) is growing at quite a click, and has been since “the covids” were unleashed.

    Sounds to me like the smart and the wise would be wise to follow suit – that is, to gtf out of dodge, find a rural corner of the planet to cultivate, and get some food in the ground asap.

    Motorhomes and caravans/trailers are a good option for those planning to hit the road in my experience, and well worth the investment.

    For those unable to get out, for whatever reason, I would start taking some seriouly actions toward developing local community initiatives, such as garden shares, urban farming, and mutual support networks if I were you. – Potatos, beans and greens are quick and easy to grow and will hold you over until you can expand and diversify in the spring.

    Composting your waste – including “humanure” – equals free fertiliser. Urine (male, not female, as it contains aestrogen) equals liquid nitrogen feed.

    Big egos equal failed community – again, in my experiance.

    Wishing you all a happy and successful transition to self reliances and harmony with nature and with each other.

    非常喜欢,
    卡利

  79. Jamesc 说:

    The author is talking about stock market promoters, who call themselves economists.

  80. FKA Max 说: • 您的网站
    @FKA Max

    附录:

    Foreigners hold roughly ~35% of U.S. stocks and bonds, with the Japanese being the biggest holders of U.S. financial assets just ahead of the United Kingdom:

    Preliminary Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2021
    28月2022日, XNUMX年
    https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0613 or https://archive.ph/1Vg8P

    The survey measured the value of foreign holdings of U.S. securities as of June 30, 2021, to be \$27,289 billion, with \$13,740 billion held in U.S. equities, \$12,450 billion held in U.S. long-term debt securities

    When the going gets tough for the global economy, like in early 2020 (and now in mid-2022), foreigners are forced to sell their U.S. assets to generate U.S. Dollar liquidity, and that’s why U.S. stock and even bond markets crash(ed) (less demand), and the U.S. Dollar’s exchange value rises/rose (more demand). 2008, during the GFC, was somewhat of an anomaly, because due to the commodities boom of the prior years some foreigners had large current account surpluses, and they bought U.S. Treasuries with those:

    Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasury Securities during the Pandemic
    January 28, 2022
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/foreign-demand-for-us-treasury-securities-during-the-pandemic-20220128.htm or https://archive.ph/zvOYz

    Foreign investors—both official (governments, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds) and private-sector investors—were significant contributors to the broad selloff in U.S. Treasury securities in March 2020 with \$417 billion of net sales, a marked contrast to foreign investors’ net buying at the peak of the GFC. ... countries benefitted from historically high oil prices in the run-up to the GFC that created large current account surpluses. By contrast, oil exporters suffered in spring 2020, as oil prices collapsed to levels not reached in nearly 20 years and current account surpluses were significantly smaller heading into the COVID-19 crisis compared to the GFC. … The net sales by foreign private investors in March and April 2020 likely also reflected the extreme severity of the COVID-19 crisis, which created a strong demand for very liquid assets (the so-called “dash for cash”) rather than a loss of safe-haven status for U.S. Treasury securities.

    And this is not a new/recent trend. This “Dash for Dollar Cash” has been going on since the beginning of the Eurodollar System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar 在1950中:

    Despite what’s said now, the relationship btw FOIs selling USTs and Euro\$ issues goes back to the very beginning of the Euro\$ system. Sixty years ago, Japanese sold Tbills to pay off Japanese banks’ dollar shortfall. This is still what happens today.https://nitter.net/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1549585291425599489#m

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