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该剧讲述的是詹姆斯·斯塔格（James Stagg）的故事，他全面负责预测诺曼底登陆的天气。他有四天的时间提供建议，并且面对的是一位成功的美国预报员，这位预报员已经得到了最高统帅德怀特·艾森豪威尔的倾听。
想到任何戏剧都是基于天气预报，主要道具是北大西洋的气压图，所有的动作都在一个陈设稀疏的房间里进行，少数道具是天气记录仪器，你可能会感到害怕。当然，有一个关于艾克与他的汽车司机凯·萨默斯比（Kay Summersby）的关系的浪漫故事，凯·萨默斯比也是他的情人和普通治疗师，但这是一部关于传播科学的困难的戏剧。
由于这是一部将于八月底结束的伦敦戏剧，我怀疑我的解释会破坏你们大多数人的任何东西，但这是一个关于作为专家证人的困境的可爱故事。无论成本如何，或者给出所需答案的压力如何，预测准确性都是科学目标，詹姆斯·斯塔格坚持自己的立场，基于对不完美数据的直觉，在通用三维模型的指导下他只得到部分支持。
大卫·黑格编剧了该剧，并饰演詹姆斯·斯塔格。马尔科姆·辛克莱尔饰演一位非常有说服力的艾森豪威尔将军，劳拉·罗杰斯饰演一位迷人、长期受苦的凯·萨默斯比。所有的选手都非常出色，所以人们可以放下信仰，只是享受这个故事。
詹姆斯·斯塔格不得不解释说，在他看来，所有基于历史记录的预测都是可疑的，所有基于气压图的预测都有缺陷，因为它们是二维的。他必须解释最近观察到的一个现象（我们现在都认为这是理所当然的），两名飞行员报告称，他们特别快地完成了从美国到英国的飞行，因为在高空，他们受益于非常高的顺风大约每小时130英里。正如美国预报员指出的那样，这是一个非常小的样本。
斯塔格认为，我们现在所说的这股急流将在预定的 5 月 6 日 D 日将大西洋风暴拉至英吉利海峡。美国人认为，从亚速尔群岛快速向北移动的好天气将会获胜，而急流在总体情况中无关紧要。经过疯狂的讨论后，入侵被推迟了，可能要推迟几周，这可能会带来致命的军事影响，因为出其不意的因素就会消失，欺骗计划也会变得毫无用处，因为潮汐有利的可行日子很少。斯塔格认为风暴会暂停一天，因此艾森豪威尔赌了一把，入侵发生在第二天，即 1944 年 XNUMX 月 XNUMX 日。
这个故事的吸引力对于所有研究人员来说都是显而易见的。这是历史转向气象学的一个复杂点的一个例子，而所谓的最高指挥部却屈服于天气。政府寻求真实建议的情况并不常见，而且他们想要真正的答案也是不寻常的，即使答案非常令人不快。战争是一个严酷的工头。当然，它与气候变化辩论还有另一个相似之处：在这种情况下，对于可能需要数十年时间才能检验的事件，人们相信谁能够做出正确的预测？
政府会向心理测量学家寻求建议并因此改变政策吗？在我看来，这是极不可能的。因此，发现至少一位天气预报员在法庭上度过了愉快的时光并改变了历史的进程，这是一件很有趣的事情。
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How well did they do the accents? Did Ike speak as a midwesterner, Stagg as a Scot?
How about heights? I don’t know how tall Stagg was but his son Peter was like a ruddy lighthouse. Did Stagg tower over the other fellows in real life? Could it have mattered? David Haig, a fine actor, doesn’t tower.
(You may see what I am alluding to.)
Anyway, it may be stating the bloody obvious, but it was an extraordinary stroke of luck that Ike was available to be Supreme Commander and Montgomery to be commander of all land forces. Even more remarkable was that these two were appointed to those two posts.
It’s a bit like Einstein being perfectly equipped to be a theoretical physicist. Ike, a general who had never seen action, was the perfect choice for his job. Monty, in spite of his appalling vanity, was the ideal, cautious, professional master of detail to plan the landings.
And to this list of successful appointments we should perhaps add Stagg. Fair enough: good things come in threes.
有没有现代气象学家回过头来查看数据来评估盟军对天气/预报结果的幸运程度？预料之中的恶劣天气却因祸得福，让德国人措手不及。
有关诺曼底登陆日天气预报的更多信息： https://medium.com/@wwnorton/the-weather-on-d-day-85ea0491a14f
这是对双方决策过程的有趣看法：
因此，委员会的方法似乎效果更好。这里的人们对此有何看法？老实说，我有点惊讶。
欧洲的天气战争是二战中一个有趣的方面。德国人在那里处于劣势，因为前线通常是从他们没有占领的地区进入的。尽管潜艇、轮船和飞机能够提供帮助。在北极获得的一些陆地前哨基地也是如此。
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/daily/wwii/the-weather-war-of-wwii/
很好的配合。你认为心理测量学家愿意睁开眼睛并了解情况会增加多少价值？ 停止 听《白板学院》吗？
“Nice tie in. How much value do you think psychometricians would add over just being willing to open their eyes and stop listening to the blank slate academy?”
Ehh – James Thompson might be musing here about a government that is asking the 右 psychometricians (= those really knowing what’s up in this field) for advice, no?
“Lettau was confident—and right—that there would be a force 4 wind on June 5, 6, and 7. Ergo, there could be no invasion. What the Germans failed to find out was that the Allies thought force 4 was just fine.”
– There might (might!) even have been some German military 希望 to be defeated (Hitler’ s order to destroy Paris did not go down too well with some of them (that’s why Paris did survive, as far as I know).
I know of one Reinhard Lettau, a literary scientist, friend of Herbert Marcuse and at his time (70ies mostly) well known German-American essayist (“Täglicher Faschismus” – “Everday Fascism”) and critic of the American engagement in Vietnam. I always wondered, what had made him so mad and unforgiving and narrow and – triumphant marxist… – – – – Now I might want to look up who his father was…
感谢非常有趣的链接。
JAMES
Large chunk data analysis, done by software running on computer hardware, already should have it’s day in court many times over. Google (Alphabet, Smith whatever) has it’s seat at Deep State and White House decision making. Seen the outcome, there could be a little ambitious Jew hiding in the server closet.
Eisenhower said consulting Bernard Baruch about his career was the wisest thing he ever did. Montgomery was Alan Brooke ‘s protoge
Eisenhower and Montgomery were competent, but the overwhelming superiority of the forces they commanded makes it foolish to assume there were not quite a few others who would have done an equally good job. How they would have coped with fighting against the odds, under which conservative safety first generalship could not possibly succeed is anyone’s guess. For example Bernard Montgomery insisted on having a good night’s sleep, Rommel pushed himself to the limit, and beyond. Horses for courses, although Montgomery’s caution perhaps made him a rarer horse than he should have been and in that sense he was a find.
Pollsters ARE psychometricians. Same testing methods, same statistical methods. Only the title is different.
笑。
Given the value and the role tat weather has played in the chimes of historical military and strategic events —
a play on the subject is unique and well chosen in my view.