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巴黎大屠杀等恐怖袭击的后果不是制定新政策的好时机，但它们为政府采取激进的、尽管考虑不周的举措提供了理想的政治条件。当忧心忡忡或惊恐万状的公众要求采取措施应对灾难并防止灾难再次发生时，领导人会被一种令人陶醉的赋权感所迷惑。最大风险的时刻不是炸弹爆炸或枪炮开火的时候，而是政府对这些暴行做出反应的时候。
恐怖主义首先是为了表现反抗、实施报复、展示实力。但是，要真正取得成功，它需要激起目标群体未经考虑的过度反应。这一直都是事实。 9/11劫机者最大的成功不是摧毁世贸中心，而是引诱美国政府在阿富汗和伊拉克发动战争，但战争未能达到目的，而且仍在继续。
英国在阿富汗和伊拉克战争中落后于美国，并在没有表现出与其盟友团结的情况下再次陷入困境。英国关于对叙利亚进行军事干预以打击“伊斯兰国”的争论比关于伊拉克或阿富汗的争论要明智一些，但对我们即将进入的战场几乎同样无知。当然，英国提议在叙利亚的军事贡献将是微乎其微的，但把一只脚趾放在蛇坑里可能和跳进蛇坑一样危险。
一位评论员将叙利亚冲突描述为九名棋手下的三维国际象棋，没有已知的规则。他可能会补充说，伊拉克的情况更糟。但从某种程度上来说，美、英、法等西方大国发动空袭削弱和消灭“伊斯兰国”所面临的困境也不难理解。他们知道，自去年以来，以美国为首的联军对这个自封的哈里发国发动了 8,000 多次空袭，但未能遏制住它，安卡拉、贝鲁特、巴格达、西奈半岛和巴黎的惨剧就证明了这一点。他们知道，除非与有效的地面军事力量合作，否则仅靠空中力量所能实现的目标是有限的。
Those who seriously propose “boots on the ground”, the horrible cliché that suggests the introduction of American, British or French ground troops, have evidently not been reading the news for the past 15 years or noticed what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. In any case, public opinion in the US and Britain is unlikely to let their leaders send any more expeditionary forces to the Middle East. More likely is the use of drones and special forces to assassinate Isis leaders, whose demise, going by past experience, will do nothing to weaken the movement as a whole. The main purpose of these killings and tales of derring-do is to add substance to the pretence that something effective is being done.
If the Western powers are not going to provide ground troops and air strikes alone are not working, there is obviously a necessity for a local ally. But here there is a political problem. The largest military force fighting IS in Syria is the Syrian army, as the former British chief of general staff Baron Richards pointed out last week. It is overstretched, but it has at least four effective combat divisions. It has always been a myth that it has not been fighting Isis as is proven by the horror films posted by the jihadists on YouTube, showing captive Syrian soldiers having their heads cut off. But the US has studiously avoided attacking Isis from the air if it is fighting the Syrian army because it is frightened of being accused of helping President Bashar al-Assad to stay in power.
俄罗斯于 30 月 47,000 日开始空袭支援叙利亚军队，打破了针对“伊斯兰国”、“努斯拉阵线”和“沙姆自由人运动”这三个主导武装抵抗运动的基地组织类型组织的军事平衡。但现在判断它已经倾斜了多少还为时过早。叙利亚军队已在行动中阵亡 31,000 人，其准军事部队在过去四年中又损失了 XNUMX 人，使其精疲力竭、陷入困境。
俄罗斯的支持提振了士气，但之前的弱点仍然存在，因此尚不清楚是否能赢得重大胜利，例如占领反对派控制的阿勒颇一半地区。叙利亚库尔德人一直是美国空军最喜欢的盟友，但他们在库尔德人占多数的领土之外能做的事情有限。
在伊拉克，“伊斯兰国”的地位可能比看上去更强大，而其敌人却比看上去更弱。伊拉克库尔德人在辛贾尔的胜利利用了美国飞机对这座小城市的猛烈轰炸，而“伊斯兰国”并没有试图用大量兵力来保卫这座小城市。伊拉克军队从未从去年的失败中恢复过来，对新兵的吸引力也低于三大什叶派民兵：巴德尔组织、正义联盟和真主党旅。这些准军事部队受到什叶派多数派的高度尊重，但他们未能将伊斯兰国从巴格达以西 40 英里的费卢杰赶走。总体而言，总理海德尔·阿巴迪及其功能失调的政府的权威仍在流失。
Nevertheless, the self-styled Islamic State is somewhat weaker than it was. Though air forces commonly exaggerate what they can achieve by bombing alone, this does not mean that it does not have an impact. Veteran soldiers may be able to sustain themselves against the material damage and prolonged psychological strain, but it will erode the level of popular support for Isis in areas it controls. Of course, for such a ruthless well-organised movement that has no plans to run for election, this may not matter. A less tangible but significant loss for Isis is that the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies, who may not have liked Isis but once saw it as a potent weapon against the Shia, are now much more cautious. Turkey is more active against Isis cells and the Syrian Kurds have closed half the Syrian-Turkish border to Isis volunteers. The progressive removal of old sanctuaries in Turkey is a serious loss for the jihadis.
人们可能还认为，逊尼派统治者及其人民曾经将“伊斯兰国”和“基地”组织视为其社区胜利的军事先锋，但事实证明，它们正在给伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派带来灾难。伊拉克 3.2 万流离失所者中的大多数是逊尼派，2006 万叙利亚难民也是如此。大多数人来自被叙利亚政府炮兵和空军摧毁的反对派地区。 7 年 XNUMX 月，巴格达的逊尼派被驱赶到一些飞地，大部分位于该市西部。现在伊拉克逊尼派没有真正安全的地方可以逃到国内。
伊斯兰国正面临压力，过去几个月的恐怖袭击浪潮就是一个迹象，但它绝不接近崩溃。只有当它的众多敌人更加团结时，这才会发生。
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….which is why the 西部 will not defeat the Jihadis. That horse left the barn, or rather the West forced that horse out of the barn, in 2011. The best the West can hope for is some indulgence from Putin for a face-saving exit through Russia’s influence over the 4+1 coalition. I wonder what Putin might ask in return.
What’s going on in Syria doesn’t even matter. France, Sweden, Belgium, Germany and all the rest of them have saddled themselves with an enormous, toxic stew of Islamic terrorists (I know, I know, Not All Islamic Terrorists Are Like That, some of them mean well). Syria is a red herring, a smokescreen thrown up to “hide” from their citizens the fact that their governments have betrayed the trust held between governments and people; protect the country, the borders, our people. A massive, tragic failure has been committed with immigration. This was done with intentional if not overtly hostile intent to pollute those societies with third world immigrants.
On the one hand all the world’s intellectuals demanding Western families curtail population and on the other allowing the third world to export THEIR overpopulation into Europe. Demanding in the aftermath of Paris, Hebdo and others that more Syrians of the sort that does murder must be imported raises the government intent to malicious. These people aren’t needed for labor (they’re primitives, they can’t do anything), they’re MEANT to pollute European society. Top it off, Obama, obviously-and-ever hostile to the U.S. interest is insisting the US bring in 65,000. Or 100,000. They run higher numbers in trial balloons by the day to see where the outrage begins.
But make no mistake, in the US, in France, Germany, all the Euro-Union, the enemy is here and home, among the population. Clean that up first. Stop taking them in and not one more sortie and not one more bomb need be dropped because with the enemy already on your own soil, overseas actions, all of them, are useless. But these governments know all this. But their flocks do not and apparently, it’s working. Where after all are feminists by the hundreds of thousands demanding a stop to the importation of a true Rape Culture (See: Sweden for starters). Feminists need to seriously rethink their position on eliminating White Male Privilege and bringing in violent, Islamic multiculturalism.
Take away all my privilege, make me more of an enemy than you already have, my notion will be not to fight them, but to JOIN them. What other incentive do I have to defend modern womanhood? I’m made out by my own society and feminism to be a bigger enemy as a white male in my own country, a country I defended in the military that now imports Islam that blows things up and kills people. Hell, under Islam, I might just get my so-called privilege back! Obviously I jest, but really, why SHOULD I give a damn? Honestly.
Well, had those Muslim countries in the ME refrained from bombing American schools, hospitals, wedding parties and generally destroying our economy and infrastructure since the 80s, we wouldn’t have had a reason to send our Christian terrorists to attack their concert goers and restaurant patrons.
Those ME countries are probably stupid enough to lay the blame for the terrorist attacks at our feet.
“恐怖主义是穷人的战争，战争是富人的恐怖主义。”
― Peter Ustinov
9/11 was an insight job carried out with the help of Israeli Mossad. It’s Israel which benefitted the most from 9/11 – the same way it’s benefitting now from French and Malian terrorist attacks carried out at Rothschild-owned Charlie Hebdo magazine office, Jewish owned Paris Theatre and Jewish-owned Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali.
21年2015月XNUMX日，沮丧的美国总统奥巴马控制不住自己的脾气，为以色列说出了美国入侵、占领和破坏中东石油资源最自由的国家伊拉克的真相。
奥巴马通过电话在匹兹堡举行的对外战争退伍军人全国代表大会上发表讲话，将美伊协议的批评者比作布什政府中强大的新保守主义者（主要是犹太人），他们根据反萨达姆的谎言将美国推入伊拉克战争。
奥巴马表示，那些“这么快就开战”并声称战争只需要几个月的人。这些人现在却在“捶胸顿足”，发表一些无助于辩论的原话。他还表示，美国不应该与伊朗发生军事冲突，而应该在万不得已的情况下才派兵去伤害伊朗。
奥巴马表示，美国与伊朗协议的反对者正在美国国会发起耗资20万美元的竞选活动，以扼杀该协议。他指的是由犹太组织“伊朗无核公民”领导的运动，该组织隶属于以色列游说团体 AIPAC。
http://rehmat1.com/2015/08/01/obama-iran-deal-critics-gave-us-iraq-war/
Putin wants higher oil prices. He’s also desperate for more cold-weather oil exploration tech. An end to our meddling on his turf would be nice. And he wants to prop up Iran’s client, Iran being Putin’s new best friend-in-commerce. Putin should be careful not to step into the tar pit once more. In Afghanistan and his very own Muslim Disneyland, Chechnya, he has his neighborhood monsters as well.
None of it matters to the West, we have our own problems on our own turf. There be monsters, they are armed and they are here. Syria? It matters not one iota, not anymore.
It is a pity civilized first-world civilizations tolerate impudent savages. If we, this generation, followed the tenets of the WW2 generation, Islam would be a culture practiced only in Hell, as surely as Admiral Halsey, surveying the damage of Pearly Harbor, declared, roughly, “When this war is over, Japanese will be a language spoken only in Hell”. And they then proceeded to make it so, as they did in Germany. And yet we today, their children, dither. Pity. And shame on us.