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有关阿富汗的许多政府/媒体误导正在进行。
在《亚洲心脏》会议上，我在《亚洲时报》上阅读了Ashraf Ghani与Nadendra Modi的公开情人晚会上的茶叶。 巴基斯坦和中国在那里，但是却得到了宝贵的“心脏”。
该作品的标题为“亚洲心脏的空洞“。
为了超越AT所涵盖的阿富汗/印度联系，这是我的宏伟目标。
美国正在阿富汗撤军。
当苏联人在阿富汗撤军时，喀布尔的客户就是这样：
不好意思要避免的。
因此，奥巴马政府正在竭尽全力确保加纳政府在喀布尔的持续生存和生存。
尽管塔利班感觉自己的燕麦并做得很好。
我看到的情况是：
第一：
坚定的媒体管理手段使塔利班的前景不佳，从而使西方捐助者/盟友仍然可以加入加尼政府。 值得注意的是：阿富汗不仅仅是美国的表演。 这是北约/大西洋主义者的项目。 在叙利亚进行宏伟的大西洋宣传运动的鉴赏家将认识到通常在工作的犯罪嫌疑人。
正如我在《亚洲时报》上提到的那样，《卫报》讲述了一个故事，说塔利班造成的过多平民伤亡使传统捐助者回避了。 信息/充满希望的预言：塔利班钱用光了！ 在绳子上！
所谓的消息来源拒绝了《卫报》的说法。 哎呀。
但是人权观察 捡起了“过多的平民伤亡” 试图否认塔利班对自己的吸引力的公共吸引力：冒充阿富汗国家基础设施和重要投资（包括中国大型铜矿）的崇高保护者。
第二：
通过有针对性的暗杀来鼓励塔利班的分裂和混乱，最显着的是XNUMX月在巴基斯坦境内杀死塔利班头目毛拉·曼索尔的无人机罢工。 这原本是建立在迟迟承认毛拉·奥马尔（Mullah Omar）死亡，削弱任何继任者的权威这一令人鼓舞的因素基础之上的，并鼓励塔利班内部的派系内斗和混乱。 不过，还没有看到太多。 似乎，负责塔利班的新人是一个谨慎而有能力的人。
第三：
试图引诱某些激进派别和军阀进入喀布尔政府，以孤立和削弱塔利班强硬派。
在这里取得的最大胜利是从Gulbuddin Hekmatyar那里获得了支持，Gulbuddin Hekmatyar是阿富汗最近历史上最臭名昭著的海盗和军阀。 他在一项和平协议中获得大赦。 我希望，除了通常的爱国主义/政治诱惑外，美国还提供了大量的财宝来带走希克马蒂亚尔。
由于美国和伊朗显然联手剥夺了 Hekmatyar 之前的储备金——据传为 72 万美元——在 2002 年入侵使美国成为阿富汗人后——有兴趣推测 Hekmatyar 现在认为什么是安全的价值储存手段。 现金？ 金子？ 比特币？
赫克玛蒂亚显然还没有从躲藏中脱颖而出，享受他的新身份。 笨拙的家伙。
第四：
ISIS的出现是最险恶的因素之一，而ISIS的出现恰恰是美国对塔利班的最大威胁。 我在菲律宾看到了类似的动态，杜特尔特正在与一个讨厌的摩洛分裂组织打交道，该组织宣布效忠ISIS。 。 塔利班战略的最新讨论 包括本段：
真主党和伊斯兰国领导人古尔布丁·赫克玛蒂亚尔最近与阿富汗政府签署的和平协定对阿富汗战争剧院具有许多含义。 前者已宣布在2015年支持IS对抗塔利班。该协议将使反塔利班联盟强大起来，以向塔利班叛乱战斗人员施加额外压力，要求其与亲阿富汗部队达成和解。
[更新：非常感谢阿拉巴马州Moon的伯纳德向我指出了这一点 令人着迷的深度作品 来自阿富汗分析员网络，内容是阿富汗人在2015年2015月与IS哈里发组织结盟后如何庇护反塔利班/反巴基斯坦政府和反ISI TTP激进分子。攻击其他激进分子，但也许在美国的压力下，在他们宣誓效忠伊斯兰国两个月后，于12年8月对他们发起攻击。 我希望阿富汗（和美国）政府仍将在寻找有用的资产来向塔利班施加压力，例如Hekmatyar！ CH 2016-XNUMX-XNUMX]
最后：
对巴基斯坦的全场新闻迫使巴基斯坦撤回对塔利班的支持，削弱了塔利班，并加剧了分裂，并激怒了美国挑衅的希望。 这牵扯到反巴基斯坦的肆意挥霍，以及老旧的备用武器：威胁伊斯兰堡。
回想一下，理查德·阿米蒂奇（Richard Armitage）曾有著名的诺言，如果9/11之后巴基斯坦没有通过反塔利班计划，就将巴基斯坦轰炸回石器时代。
但是，由于今年美国正在离开阿富汗而不是进入阿富汗，因此需要新的重担来传达这一信息。
我怀疑在2016年是“停止支持塔利班，否则我们将为印度开绿灯，以在巴基斯坦的每个角落释放地狱”。 正如我在我的AT文章中指出的那样，鉴于巴基斯坦中央政府在Bal路支斯坦和吉尔吉特-巴尔的斯坦的统治摇摇欲坠，克什米尔控制线的报复性升级，部落地区的动荡和Patunkwa，这有很多恶作剧的机会。 随便你说，巴基斯坦都有。
加尼为印度洗礼是这项倡议的重要组成部分。
这五个要素是有趣，简单的部分。
困难的部分是处理中华人民共和国。 尤其是由于美国相当勇敢地决定印度是解决其所有南亚问题的解决方案：阿富汗，巴基斯坦和中国的渗透。
尽管加尼公开加入了莫迪的怀抱，但无论是通过巴基斯坦的支持还是直接参与阿富汗安全与经济发展问题，中国仍然是阿富汗问题的重要组成部分。
因此，加尼想对政策进行调整，以免面临跨境敌对的中国。 美国和印度正试图促使中国加入他们对巴基斯坦施加的压力。
麻烦的是，我认为牙膏不适合使用。 到目前为止，中国认为莫迪对中国在巴基斯坦的项目（实际上是中国在南亚的任何重要业务）都具有根本的敌意。 中国可能不太重视印度官方的政府职务，而更多地关注印度目前对打藏族和维吾尔族分裂主义牌的兴趣。
It also probably regards Modi as fundamentally hostile to the continued viability of Pakistan. The Western commentariat blithely ignores Modi’s irredentist attitude toward Pakistan, but the core belief of the RSS and the BJP is that Partition was a crime against Mother India (Bharat Mata) and a treasonous capitulation to the Muslim minority, and Pakistan, more than a failed state, lacks the legitimacy or right to survival of a genuine nation.
So the PRC will resist an expanded role for India in Afghanistan (which would take away the famous Pakistani “strategic depth” and expose it to the Indian threat from both east and west) and is unlikely to decisively support the call for Pakistan to cut off the Taliban—its key strategic asset and, now, bulwark against Indian influence, in Afghanistan.
At the same time, I doubt Modi lacks the suicidal impulses displayed by the Soviet Union and the United States, and will not decisively and overtly intervene in Afghanistan to buttress its preferred regime in Kabul. Another thing that the Western commentariat rather amusingly chooses to ignore is the rather absurd picture of a non-neighboring Hindu state—one presided, moreover, by the notorious alleged enabler of an anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat in 2002—presenting itself as the natural ally of Islamic and Turkic Afghanistan.
So, I doubt that the Taliban will be weakened enough to come into the Afghan government on Ghani’s terms, or that the Taliban will strengthen sufficiently to force itself into Kabul on its terms.
In other words, my prediction is for more bloody muddling in Afghanistan as the Taliban and Ghani and Pakistan and India and the PRC jostle for advantage.
In my opinion, Afghanistan remains the most likely venue for the first major piece of Chinese military power projection since the 1979 Vietnam invasion. If the security situation genuinely degrades—or if the PRC decides India is gaining too much of an upper hand and an Afghan security crisis needs to be fomented to justify an injection of PRC power—I wouldn’t be too surprised if some kind of PLA military presence materialized in northern Afghanistan.
Nobody in their right mind wants to put troops into Afghanistan. But the PRC will, in my opinion, if it feels it has to in order to bring decisive force to bear where needed to keep a lid on things in Xinjiang.
To me, however, the current wild card is India.
If Modi decides that the US anti-Pakistan tilt is a rapidly wasting asset—Trump’s notorious phone call with Pakistan’s Sharif probably range some major alarm bells in New Delhi—he may be tempted to escalate his anti-Pakistan campaign and do as much damage as he can before the US tries to restrain India.
I would like to conclude this piece with the following observation.
In response to its declining strategic advantage, the United States has decided to abandon its position as balancer and restrainer of regional powers. India and Japan are being encouraged to act as regional hegemons with US backing in order to restrain China in return for participating in Asian security initiatives dear to America’s heart (the “pivot”; the stabilization of Afghanistan).
In bad news for the United States, both India and Japan are not obedient clients in the US “principled international order”. They are now revisionist powers, i.e. they reject the US World War II victor/lawgiver narrative for Asia in favor of one centered on Japan as an Asian leader and decolonizer and independent India as a victory over Atlanticist imperialism. They will exploit US backing to the hilt, but deference to US policy will be increasingly “honored in the breach” as they say in Shakespeare-land.
换一种说法：
WE HAVE GIVEN THE INITIATIVE IN ASIAN POLICY TO RISING REGIONAL HEGEMONS WHO ARE EQUALLY OPPOSED TO US AS WELL AS CHINESE DOMINATION.
In my opinion, this US gambit will be remembered as the ruinous miscalculation that 86’d the US position in Asia.
So it’s worth the screaming-font treatment.
“Asia run by Asians” is probably a good thing. But probably not a good thing for US dreams of its “Pacific Century”.
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Afghanistan is a fake country. It would do much better to break into 4 or 5 regions along dominant ethnic lines.
US should have done this for Afghanistan — like in Yugoslavia — , but it tried to keep the whole nation together, and it just won’t work.
A diverse nation can only remain together under iron fist…. like Titoist regime over Yugoslavia.
“In my opinion, Afghanistan remains the most likely venue for the first major piece of Chinese military power projection since the 1979 Vietnam invasion.”
If Chinese want to get mired in that hellhole, let them. It’s their turn to be stupid after Russia and the US.
“Afghanistan is a fake country. ”
So is Iraq, India, Libya…
The way Modi views China is a pity. India and China are the only large, neighboring powers who have never had a (major) war in our millennia of history. The Himalayas separates our cultural and political spheres nicely. Why stir up a fight?
If India and Japan really do reject the west as lawgiver, then they have something in common with China and Russia.
Since the dismantling of Pakistan and Tibet/Xinjiang independence are unlikely scenarios, both countries should instead align on nationalist grounds against the western world order, at least until the west learns to embrace nationalism itself.
Right, which is why Iraq and Libya fell apart once the US removed the Iron Fist.
Democracy cannot work with too much diversity. Western Imperialism created and imposed diverse patchwork nations in Africa and Middle East. And those nations can only be held together by the Iron Fist.
They say India is a democracy, but what a mess!!! Still, most people speak Hindi and are Hindus, and that holds the nation together.
Arabs were never good at teamwork.
Kurds have the same problem, though maybe their ethnic sense is stronger since Kurdish ethnicity is more specific than ‘Arab’ that could mean anyone from Iraq to parts of Sudan.
Pan-Kurdism is more doable than Pan-Arabism since Kurds are spread out over smaller territory and have stronger ethnic unity. Still, there is something about Islam, with its custom-centrism, that favors tribalism and clannism over principles and idealism. Christianity is about the Ideas of Jesus. Islam is about Muhammad’s rules on what to eat, what to wear, and etc. It focuses more on habits and specifics of culture.
And Afghans have been a tribal folks forever. They are like the wild Scotsmen of Middle East.
British, Russian, American, Iranian, Pakistani, and Saudi intervention made things much worse.
The paradox of Afghanistan is it is so weak and divided that any bunch of nations could invade and intervene, BUT it is also so mountainous, diverse, & tribal that no power, however great, could triumph in the long run.
It is like a quicksand. Passive and ineffectual to keep away intruders but slowly sucking in anything that steps over it.
China stole some Indian lands in the early 60s.
Also, China’s good relations with Pakistan is a thorn on India’s side.
“China stole some Indian lands in the early 60s. ”
That’s what the Indians has been spoon fed by the Indian government for years. The reverse is true. The fact is today India is still occupying a vast tract of Chinese territories the size of several Taiwan. India invaded South Tibet four years after its creation and occupy it to this day.
“India invaded South Tibet four years after its creation and occupy it to this day.”
China invaded all of Tibet and occupy it to this day.
Durn right. The Chinese now see the Paks as a counterweight to the Indians. The Indians used to chummy up to the Russians as a counterweight to the Chinese and because Nehru was gooey-eyed about socialism. The US used to chummy up to the Paks as a conduit to Afghanistan and, before that, to counterweight the Indians who were cozy w/Russia, and because Pak politicians who are killers are so much handsomer than Indian pols post Rajiv who don’t kill anyone but look like they ate the baby. Its quantum mechanical rock-paper-scissors with Schrodinger’s paradox thrown in so you don’t know who’s covering, crushing or cutting whom. Ahhh, fun, if you aren’t one of pieces getting gutted on the great gameboard. And all five players have nukes.
“China invaded all of Tibet and occupy it to this day.”
I know Indians really want this to be true. Because if this is so it will distract the world from India’s annexation and continue occupation of South Tibet. China did send in the army to Tibet in 1951. But this is not an invasion of a sovereign country. It is to prevent it from being carved up and go independent, like Mongolia. Not a single country at any time, the US and Great Britain included, recognizes Tibet as an independent country.
India’s invasion and continue illegal occupation of South Tibet is a different animal. For your information on the record the United Nation recognizes India’s illegal occupation of South Tibet as a disputed territory, like Kashmir.
“China did send in the army to Tibet in 1951. But this is not an invasion of a sovereign country. It is to prevent it from being carved up and go independent, like Mongolia. Not a single country at any time, the US and Great Britain included, recognizes Tibet as an independent country.”
Boy oh boy oh soy oh soy.
So, Chinese invaded Tibet for the same reason Japanese invaded China.
Japanese were only trying to defend Asia from Western Imperialism, and Chinese were only trying to defend their Asian brothers from OTHER imperialists.
给我休息。
The fact of the matter is most Tibetans would be happy if Chinese just went home and stopped doing them a favor.
Look, I’m gonna be a realist about this. I don’t expect China to give up Tibet. I also know Chinese are not the only people ruling over conquered peoples. Russians do to. So do Persians in Iran. And India is sort of a Brahminite empire over various tribes. And Indonesia was created by imperialist and still is imperialist. And the US was the product of imperialism and took a lot of land from Mexico.
So, China is no worse in this regard.
BUT, let’s at least be honest. Tibet became part of China under imperialism.
Maybe the Chinese did some good. Indeed, imperialists did some good all over the world. But imperialism is imperialism.
Like I said before Indians really want the narrative of ‘China invaded Tibet’ to stick because it will obscure the fact of India invasion and annexation of South Tibet. Your reply and the dishonesty of what you said show I am right.
If Indians are so concern about the welfare of the Tibetans one thing they can do easily. Revoke the draconian AFSPA (Armed Force Special Act) on South Tibet. For people who don’t know what is AFSPA, it is a law that gives the Indian state to detain or kill anyone with impunity. South Tibetans under Indian occupation hate this law with a vengence. But they are pretty much a voiceless people. A few years ago it was revealed that an Indian school principal in occupied South Tibet raped scores of Tibetan girls. I am not surprise to hear that. India is often called the rape capital of the world. South Tibet will sooner or later become the next Kashmir.
“Worth noting: Afghanistan is not just an American show; it’s a NATO/Atlanticist project.”
Yes, as one noted when the intervention in Afghanistan began under Bush, NATO had finally revealed its hitherto concealed terra-forming mightiness, moving the North Atlantic Ocean, via the Mediterranean, to the Northern Indian Ocean and the non-existent shores of Afghanistan.
The United States and whatever NATO members are left will leave Afghanistan when the Chinese tell them to, not before.
Right now many US and allied units’ main business is protecting various lucrative construction projects the Chinese have with the government of Afghanistan.
When the Chinese decide it is time for the US and its allied clowns to leave, the US will be out in less than six months, leaving considerable materiel behind.
If the the US tries to pivot and cries “We don’t want to go!”, providing one simple weapons system to the Taliban will turn all of Afghanistan into a Dienbienphu for the interlopers.
After that the Chinese will have no problem doing business with whoever is there.
吸盘！
Like sniper shows up ,ISIS also shows up in unexpected places . It feels and smells like opium a . It makes cameo appearance on the running non stop horror movie as the main villain .It is like apparition for the faithful who tries to understand why despite the best intention America fails in these godforsaken cult based heathen countries inhabited by the unwashed .
Afghanistan has been the grave yard of the physical empire But in case of America ,caves of Kabul have interred the ideas of the empire . America has embraced terrorism 14 years after declaring its reason for arrival that was to erase the terror from the face of the earth.
Internal inconsistencies are unraveling the Pax Americana . Neither India,nor Japan or S Korea or Afghanistan will play the game by the western rules . India may find itself in the cross hairs because it has so many fault lines and it has no reason to think that uncle Sam will not treat it the way it treated Pakistan or Iraq /Libya after the American aims were realized .
Hows does IS appear in Afghanistan ? Are they from local population? Why are they then getting into the war at this stage? Are they from offshoot Taliban? then Taliban would know who they are who the leaders are . They will know their pedigree/family/connections and Taliban would not hesitate to expose them . Are they kind of new ? In that case what they were doing until now? Are the farmers, engineers,unemployed or religious students? Who put them together ?
The question then arises are they created by Saudi US Qatar axis ? are they carted with American blessings by Afghanistan government? Both of the last 2 are most likely . It is also possible that the same “mujhaeddin ” who were busload to Azerabiazn and Serbia and Libya from Afghanistan are basically coming back with their new converts.
What’s your point though? America is also a country created on conquered land.
Why should America make Tibet such an issue when one could easily say the same thing about all of America, especially California which was stolen from Mexico and Hawaii which was stolen from natives?
he basically countered his own point. pretty retarded comments by the same guy.
I’m not sure where you get your news from,, but it’s China that does most of the provoking. From periodically encroaching on the disputed Himalayan border (where no one lives and no one can live) to sponsoring the terror apparatus of the Pakistani regime, an apparatus that is primarily targeted at India, it’s China that seems determined to bring the conflict to a head. And the PRC government gets unnecessarily upset over issues that are none of its business, like the Dalai Lama being invited to an official function.
To add to my previous comment:
I agree with the above statement completely, but when has China stuck to its side of the Himalayas? I’ve already mentioned how they help build up the Pakistani jihadi machine against India, and last I checked, most of Pakistan (like most of India) was this side of the Himalayas. What business does China have building ports in Balochistan. In Sri Lanka? Bases in Burma? All of these places are south of the Himalayas, and have traditionally been part of the Indian cultural and political sphere.
The People’s Republic of China is today an aggressive expansionist nationalist (and arrogant) power in the mold of 19th century Prussia, Nazi Germany, and Czarist Russia, and will get a comeuppance sometimes in this century. I don’t say this with any pleasure, as the result won’t be pretty, either for the Chinese or us Indians. On the other hand, if any Indian or Chinese leader manages to reverse the current trend and signs a binding treaty between the countries, a more obvious choice for a Nobel Peace Prize there will not be.
“From periodically encroaching on the disputed Himalayan border (where no one lives and no one can live)…”
The encroachment is on the Indian side. Granted India didn’t start all this, the British Raj did. That doesn’t excuse the Indian of continuing what the Raj has been doing. The Raj is a certified expansionist. There is no dispute on that. And the Indians are so impressed with their former colonial master that they did their own land grabs. Today India has disputed borders with almost all its neighbors. Is this all India’s neighbor’s fault?
“The People’s Republic of China is today an aggressive expansionist nationalist (and arrogant) power in the mold of 19th century Prussia, Nazi Germany, and Czarist Russia, and will get a comeuppance sometimes in this century. ”
Any fact to back that up?
On the other hand India IS an expansionist and has been land grabbing its neighbor’s territories since day one.
Only with Pakistan and China at this point. Disputes with Bangladesh were sorted out by the Modi government a year or two ago. And yes, these disputes are Pakistan’s and China’s faults respectively.
China has border disputes with almost all of its neighbors too. In addition, it has disputes with its own “citizens” living in border regions.
读新闻。
“China has border disputes with almost all of its neighbors too. ”
No. China only has unresolved border disputes with India and Bhutan. The other twelve are all settled amicably.
India on the other hand has only resolve its border with Bangladesh. The rest are all disputed. See the difference?
“Read the news.”
News are not fact. If you think so I have only pity on you.